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Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后的普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote>
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>why many people still think it is a good stock because borders are slowly opening and it is national airline? 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07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?<blockquote>劳动节美股开市吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126654067","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.\nU.S. financial markets will be cl","content":"<p>It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.</p><p><blockquote>对于华尔街投资者来说，这是非正式的夏季最后一次欢呼。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>美国金融市场将于9月6日周一因劳动节休市，这标志着美国为期三天的周末，此前股市经历了一段非常壮观的走势。尽管人们担心冠状病毒德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延，并对美联储去年大流行开始时实施的宽松货币政策最终回滚的时间表感到不安，但股市还是出现了反弹。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc. -owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite indexes.</p><p><blockquote>周一，包括洲际交易所旗下的纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克在内的美国证券交易所将休市，因此不要寻找道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔500指数或纳斯达克综合指数等个股或指数的任何走势。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite was on track to book its 35th all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500在2021年已经创下了54个历史收盘新高，并有望在周五创下第55个历史新高，而纳斯达克综合指数有望创下今年第35个历史新高。周五下午，道琼斯指数较8月16日的纪录上涨了不到一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Sifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was yielding around 1.33% after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>证券业固定收益贸易组织Sifma也建议债券市场在劳动节休市，包括10年期国债交易，在美国8月就业报告公布后，该国债收益率约为1.33%。低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> However, the Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that 235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国劳工部的就业报告显示，8月份新增就业岗位23.5万个，远低于预期的70多万个，但这未能降低主权债务投资者对美联储近期宣布缩减每月1200亿美元美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买规模的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Trading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的大多数商品期货交易，包括纽约商品交易所原油和纽约商品交易所黄金，也将于周一停止。</blockquote></p><p> Is there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?</p><p><blockquote>除了在美国度假和烧烤之外，这个假期对普通投资者还有什么意义吗？</blockquote></p><p> Probably not.</p><p><blockquote>应该不会吧。</blockquote></p><p> But the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.</p><p><blockquote>但根据道琼斯市场数据，近年来，五月阵亡将士纪念日至九月劳动节期间对投资者来说是一段看涨的时期。例如，道琼斯指数在此期间上涨了约2%，平均涨幅为1.3%，65%的时间创造了获胜记录。在过去的六个阵亡将士纪念日/劳动节期间，道琼斯指数目前正在享受连胜，这是自1989年以来最长的连胜。去年，市场同期上涨了近15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f0f061a4ddd2ca31c53f8aa68e3cce\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>标普500也取得了类似的连胜，在阵亡将士纪念日至劳动节期间迄今为止已上涨近8%。过去几年同期上涨了70%以上，平均涨幅为1.7%。2020年期间，大盘指数上涨了16%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c780a46e32d055feb3e3f5e10fc987f\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.</p><p><blockquote>但如果劳动节交易中存在真正的趋势，那么MarketWatch的Steve Goldstein援引Raymond James策略师Tavis McCourt的话说，在过去两年中，股市存在很大的价值和周期性偏差。节后股市，2018年，夏季接近尾声后市场基本崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> It is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.</p><p><blockquote>不可能知道这一次股市涨势是否会以类似的方式逐渐消失，但华尔街越来越多的人认为估值过高，股指将从当前高度回调至少5%或更好。</blockquote></p><p> Markets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100 index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>市场将于周二恢复照常营业，当然，欧洲证券交易所，包括伦敦富时100指数和泛欧斯托克欧洲600指数，以及亚洲市场、日经225指数、香港恒生指数和上证综合指数。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?<blockquote>劳动节美股开市吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?<blockquote>劳动节美股开市吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 07:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.</p><p><blockquote>对于华尔街投资者来说，这是非正式的夏季最后一次欢呼。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>美国金融市场将于9月6日周一因劳动节休市，这标志着美国为期三天的周末，此前股市经历了一段非常壮观的走势。尽管人们担心冠状病毒德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延，并对美联储去年大流行开始时实施的宽松货币政策最终回滚的时间表感到不安，但股市还是出现了反弹。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc. -owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite indexes.</p><p><blockquote>周一，包括洲际交易所旗下的纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克在内的美国证券交易所将休市，因此不要寻找道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔500指数或纳斯达克综合指数等个股或指数的任何走势。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite was on track to book its 35th all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500在2021年已经创下了54个历史收盘新高，并有望在周五创下第55个历史新高，而纳斯达克综合指数有望创下今年第35个历史新高。周五下午，道琼斯指数较8月16日的纪录上涨了不到一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Sifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was yielding around 1.33% after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>证券业固定收益贸易组织Sifma也建议债券市场在劳动节休市，包括10年期国债交易，在美国8月就业报告公布后，该国债收益率约为1.33%。低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> However, the Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that 235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国劳工部的就业报告显示，8月份新增就业岗位23.5万个，远低于预期的70多万个，但这未能降低主权债务投资者对美联储近期宣布缩减每月1200亿美元美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买规模的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Trading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的大多数商品期货交易，包括纽约商品交易所原油和纽约商品交易所黄金，也将于周一停止。</blockquote></p><p> Is there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?</p><p><blockquote>除了在美国度假和烧烤之外，这个假期对普通投资者还有什么意义吗？</blockquote></p><p> Probably not.</p><p><blockquote>应该不会吧。</blockquote></p><p> But the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.</p><p><blockquote>但根据道琼斯市场数据，近年来，五月阵亡将士纪念日至九月劳动节期间对投资者来说是一段看涨的时期。例如，道琼斯指数在此期间上涨了约2%，平均涨幅为1.3%，65%的时间创造了获胜记录。在过去的六个阵亡将士纪念日/劳动节期间，道琼斯指数目前正在享受连胜，这是自1989年以来最长的连胜。去年，市场同期上涨了近15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f0f061a4ddd2ca31c53f8aa68e3cce\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>标普500也取得了类似的连胜，在阵亡将士纪念日至劳动节期间迄今为止已上涨近8%。过去几年同期上涨了70%以上，平均涨幅为1.7%。2020年期间，大盘指数上涨了16%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c780a46e32d055feb3e3f5e10fc987f\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.</p><p><blockquote>但如果劳动节交易中存在真正的趋势，那么MarketWatch的Steve Goldstein援引Raymond James策略师Tavis McCourt的话说，在过去两年中，股市存在很大的价值和周期性偏差。节后股市，2018年，夏季接近尾声后市场基本崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> It is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.</p><p><blockquote>不可能知道这一次股市涨势是否会以类似的方式逐渐消失，但华尔街越来越多的人认为估值过高，股指将从当前高度回调至少5%或更好。</blockquote></p><p> Markets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100 index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>市场将于周二恢复照常营业，当然，欧洲证券交易所，包括伦敦富时100指数和泛欧斯托克欧洲600指数，以及亚洲市场、日经225指数、香港恒生指数和上证综合指数。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-u-s-stock-market-open-on-labor-day-11630697597?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","ICE":"洲际交易所",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-u-s-stock-market-open-on-labor-day-11630697597?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126654067","content_text":"It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.\nU.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.\nOn Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc. -owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite indexes.\nThe S&P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite was on track to book its 35th all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.\nSifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was yielding around 1.33% after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.\nHowever, the Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that 235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.\nTrading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.\nIs there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?\nProbably not.\nBut the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.\nDOW JONES MARKET DATA\nThe S&P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.\nDOW JONES MARKET DATA\nBut if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.\nIt is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.\nMarkets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100 index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite 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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811071484","repostId":"2163776380","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819016949,"gmtCreate":1630022141981,"gmtModify":1704954639225,"author":{"id":"3576051682201625","authorId":"3576051682201625","name":"alexseahwj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5104c5b64b63b0070c1793ca39d077ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576051682201625","idStr":"3576051682201625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819016949","repostId":"2162847016","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832718176,"gmtCreate":1629678074195,"gmtModify":1631892066204,"author":{"id":"3576051682201625","authorId":"3576051682201625","name":"alexseahwj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5104c5b64b63b0070c1793ca39d077ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576051682201625","idStr":"3576051682201625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832718176","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832711920,"gmtCreate":1629678041760,"gmtModify":1631892066215,"author":{"id":"3576051682201625","authorId":"3576051682201625","name":"alexseahwj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5104c5b64b63b0070c1793ca39d077ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576051682201625","idStr":"3576051682201625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832711920","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832399282,"gmtCreate":1629587385046,"gmtModify":1631892066223,"author":{"id":"3576051682201625","authorId":"3576051682201625","name":"alexseahwj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5104c5b64b63b0070c1793ca39d077ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576051682201625","idStr":"3576051682201625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Uh","listText":"Uh","text":"Uh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832399282","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更容易预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更容易预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","ON":"安森美半导体","ASML":"阿斯麦","SSNLF":"三星电子","NVDA":"英伟达","TSM":"台积电","QCOM":"高通","SNPS":"新思科技","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","GOOGL":"谷歌A","CDNS":"铿腾电子","AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"ON":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"SOXX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836567512,"gmtCreate":1629508541036,"gmtModify":1631892066235,"author":{"id":"3576051682201625","authorId":"3576051682201625","name":"alexseahwj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5104c5b64b63b0070c1793ca39d077ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576051682201625","idStr":"3576051682201625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836567512","repostId":"2161743232","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838571026,"gmtCreate":1629421729365,"gmtModify":1631892066247,"author":{"id":"3576051682201625","authorId":"3576051682201625","name":"alexseahwj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5104c5b64b63b0070c1793ca39d077ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576051682201625","idStr":"3576051682201625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838571026","repostId":"2160915795","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831512151,"gmtCreate":1629334740473,"gmtModify":1631892066259,"author":{"id":"3576051682201625","authorId":"3576051682201625","name":"alexseahwj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5104c5b64b63b0070c1793ca39d077ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576051682201625","idStr":"3576051682201625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Something is brewing","listText":"Something is brewing","text":"Something is brewing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831512151","repostId":"1161930198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161930198","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629331022,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161930198?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 07:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors compare 2021 stock-market rally to the pre-crash summer of 1987 — should they?<blockquote>投资者将2021年股市反弹与1987年崩盘前的夏季进行比较——他们应该这样做吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161930198","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee\n'Wall Street' in the pre-working from hom","content":"<p>‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee</p><p><blockquote>“力量往往会产生力量”，但这并不能保证</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3b6031d3c2b32047dfe87035791cad\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"708\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>'Wall Street' in the pre-working from home era. EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>在家工作前时代的“华尔街”。埃弗雷特收藏</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors are drawing parallels between the stock market’s 2021 climb and the pattern seen in 1987, a year that saw a seemingly relentless rally completely undone by the “Black Monday” crash in October, but there are some important differences, analysts note.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，一些投资者将2021年股市的上涨与1987年的模式进行了比较，1987年看似无情的反弹被10月份的“黑色星期一”崩盘彻底摧毁，但也存在一些重要差异。</blockquote></p><p> Granted, the comparison does feel appropriate, at least on the surface, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Wednesday note.</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在周三的一份报告中表示，诚然，这种比较确实是合适的，至少从表面上看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> “Everyone, from plugged-in hedge-fund managers to retail investors, is making money. The movie ‘Wall Street’ debuted in late 1987 and, while this decade’s Bud Fox may be working from home, the overall societal vibe is similar.”</p><p><blockquote>“从对冲基金经理到散户投资者，每个人都在赚钱。电影《华尔街》于1987年底首映，虽然这十年的巴德·福克斯可能在家工作，但整体社会氛围是相似的。”</blockquote></p><p> But the comparison doesn’t look so apt when comparing the year-to-date performances of the S&P 500 index,he said. The large-cap benchmark was up 36% through Aug. 17, 1987, versus just 18% for the same period in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>但他表示，在比较标普500指数今年迄今的表现时，这种比较看起来并不那么恰当。截至1987年8月17日，大盘股基准上涨了36%，而2021年同期仅上涨了18%。</blockquote></p><p> As for the two years prior, 1985 and 1986 saw S&P 500 total returns of 31% and 18%, respectively, matching up identically with returns in 2019 and 2020 which Colas acknowledged is a bit “spooky.” However, he maintained, the 2021 rally is still a “pale comparison” to what was going on in 1987.</p><p><blockquote>至于前两年，1985年和1986年，标普500的总回报率分别为31%和18%，与2019年和2020年的回报率相同，Colas承认这有点“怪异”。然而，他坚称，2021年的反弹与1987年的情况相比仍然“相形见绌”。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, a day after the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average each snapped a five-session streak of record finishes.</p><p><blockquote>周三，股市大多走低，此前一天，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数均结束了连续五个交易日的创纪录收盘。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group this week pointed out that the S&P 500 is on pace to set a record for, well, records. Tuesday’s all-time closing high was not only the fifth in a row, it was also the 49th of 2021. That puts the index on track for 78 closing highs this year, which would edge out the record 77 seen in 1995.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Bespoke Investment Group的分析师本周指出，标普500即将创下纪录。周二的历史收盘高点不仅是连续第五次，也是2021年的第49次。这使得该指数今年有望创下78个收盘高点，这将超过1995年创下的77个收盘高点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s no sure thing, the Bespoke analysts cautioned, noting that even a 5% pullback could eat into the ability to maintain a record-breaking pace. They noted that since 1950, there have been five years where the S&P 500 had more than 40 record highs through Aug. 16, and while both 1995 and 1964 were the leaders in those years, years like 1987, 1997, and 1998 also had more than 40 record highs at this point in the year, and none of them finished the year with more than 50.</p><p><blockquote>Bespoke分析师警告说，这并不确定，并指出即使是5%的回调也可能削弱保持破纪录步伐的能力。他们指出，自1950年以来，截至8月16日，标普500有五年创下了40多项历史新高，虽然1995年和1964年都是这些年份的领先者，但1987年、1997年和1998年等年份也创下了40多项历史新高，但没有一项在年底创下超过50项历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> But more important, what does such a rapid pace of closing highs mean for full-year performance? It’s mostly positive, as one would suspect, though there are exceptions, including, of course, 1987 (see table below).</p><p><blockquote>但更重要的是，如此快速的收高节奏对全年业绩意味着什么？正如人们所怀疑的那样，这基本上是积极的，尽管也有例外，当然包括1987年（见下表）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/981c0baa3da755be710dba80091eb0fd\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>定制投资集团</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500’s year-to-date gain is very similar to the median and average return of the five prior years in the table, the analysts noted.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，该标普500今年迄今的收益与表中前五年的中位数和平均回报率非常相似。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking ahead, the median rest of year performance for the index from the close on 8/16 through year-end was a gain of 7.7% with positive returns four out of five times and more than doubling the average rest of year performance for all years since 1950,” they wrote, noting that “the one exception was in 1987 and it was a doozy.”</p><p><blockquote>“展望未来，从8月16日收盘到年底，该指数今年剩余时间的中值表现为7.7%，五分之四为正回报，是今年剩余时间平均表现的两倍多。自1950年以来的所有年份，”他们写道，并指出“唯一的例外是1987年，这太棒了。”</blockquote></p><p> So what should investors make of it all?</p><p><blockquote>那么投资者应该如何看待这一切呢？</blockquote></p><p> The Bespoke analysts noted that the usual caveats apply — there’s no guarantee and past performance isn’t indicative of future results — but the data does underline the observation that “strength often begets strength in the market.”</p><p><blockquote>Bespoke分析师指出，通常的警告是适用的——没有保证，过去的表现并不代表未来的结果——但数据确实强调了“实力往往会带来市场实力”的观察结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors compare 2021 stock-market rally to the pre-crash summer of 1987 — should they?<blockquote>投资者将2021年股市反弹与1987年崩盘前的夏季进行比较——他们应该这样做吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors compare 2021 stock-market rally to the pre-crash summer of 1987 — should they?<blockquote>投资者将2021年股市反弹与1987年崩盘前的夏季进行比较——他们应该这样做吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 07:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee</p><p><blockquote>“力量往往会产生力量”，但这并不能保证</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3b6031d3c2b32047dfe87035791cad\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"708\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>'Wall Street' in the pre-working from home era. EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>在家工作前时代的“华尔街”。埃弗雷特收藏</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors are drawing parallels between the stock market’s 2021 climb and the pattern seen in 1987, a year that saw a seemingly relentless rally completely undone by the “Black Monday” crash in October, but there are some important differences, analysts note.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，一些投资者将2021年股市的上涨与1987年的模式进行了比较，1987年看似无情的反弹被10月份的“黑色星期一”崩盘彻底摧毁，但也存在一些重要差异。</blockquote></p><p> Granted, the comparison does feel appropriate, at least on the surface, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Wednesday note.</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在周三的一份报告中表示，诚然，这种比较确实是合适的，至少从表面上看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> “Everyone, from plugged-in hedge-fund managers to retail investors, is making money. The movie ‘Wall Street’ debuted in late 1987 and, while this decade’s Bud Fox may be working from home, the overall societal vibe is similar.”</p><p><blockquote>“从对冲基金经理到散户投资者，每个人都在赚钱。电影《华尔街》于1987年底首映，虽然这十年的巴德·福克斯可能在家工作，但整体社会氛围是相似的。”</blockquote></p><p> But the comparison doesn’t look so apt when comparing the year-to-date performances of the S&P 500 index,he said. The large-cap benchmark was up 36% through Aug. 17, 1987, versus just 18% for the same period in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>但他表示，在比较标普500指数今年迄今的表现时，这种比较看起来并不那么恰当。截至1987年8月17日，大盘股基准上涨了36%，而2021年同期仅上涨了18%。</blockquote></p><p> As for the two years prior, 1985 and 1986 saw S&P 500 total returns of 31% and 18%, respectively, matching up identically with returns in 2019 and 2020 which Colas acknowledged is a bit “spooky.” However, he maintained, the 2021 rally is still a “pale comparison” to what was going on in 1987.</p><p><blockquote>至于前两年，1985年和1986年，标普500的总回报率分别为31%和18%，与2019年和2020年的回报率相同，Colas承认这有点“怪异”。然而，他坚称，2021年的反弹与1987年的情况相比仍然“相形见绌”。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, a day after the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average each snapped a five-session streak of record finishes.</p><p><blockquote>周三，股市大多走低，此前一天，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数均结束了连续五个交易日的创纪录收盘。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group this week pointed out that the S&P 500 is on pace to set a record for, well, records. Tuesday’s all-time closing high was not only the fifth in a row, it was also the 49th of 2021. That puts the index on track for 78 closing highs this year, which would edge out the record 77 seen in 1995.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Bespoke Investment Group的分析师本周指出，标普500即将创下纪录。周二的历史收盘高点不仅是连续第五次，也是2021年的第49次。这使得该指数今年有望创下78个收盘高点，这将超过1995年创下的77个收盘高点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s no sure thing, the Bespoke analysts cautioned, noting that even a 5% pullback could eat into the ability to maintain a record-breaking pace. They noted that since 1950, there have been five years where the S&P 500 had more than 40 record highs through Aug. 16, and while both 1995 and 1964 were the leaders in those years, years like 1987, 1997, and 1998 also had more than 40 record highs at this point in the year, and none of them finished the year with more than 50.</p><p><blockquote>Bespoke分析师警告说，这并不确定，并指出即使是5%的回调也可能削弱保持破纪录步伐的能力。他们指出，自1950年以来，截至8月16日，标普500有五年创下了40多项历史新高，虽然1995年和1964年都是这些年份的领先者，但1987年、1997年和1998年等年份也创下了40多项历史新高，但没有一项在年底创下超过50项历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> But more important, what does such a rapid pace of closing highs mean for full-year performance? It’s mostly positive, as one would suspect, though there are exceptions, including, of course, 1987 (see table below).</p><p><blockquote>但更重要的是，如此快速的收高节奏对全年业绩意味着什么？正如人们所怀疑的那样，这基本上是积极的，尽管也有例外，当然包括1987年（见下表）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/981c0baa3da755be710dba80091eb0fd\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>定制投资集团</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500’s year-to-date gain is very similar to the median and average return of the five prior years in the table, the analysts noted.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，该标普500今年迄今的收益与表中前五年的中位数和平均回报率非常相似。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking ahead, the median rest of year performance for the index from the close on 8/16 through year-end was a gain of 7.7% with positive returns four out of five times and more than doubling the average rest of year performance for all years since 1950,” they wrote, noting that “the one exception was in 1987 and it was a doozy.”</p><p><blockquote>“展望未来，从8月16日收盘到年底，该指数今年剩余时间的中值表现为7.7%，五分之四为正回报，是今年剩余时间平均表现的两倍多。自1950年以来的所有年份，”他们写道，并指出“唯一的例外是1987年，这太棒了。”</blockquote></p><p> So what should investors make of it all?</p><p><blockquote>那么投资者应该如何看待这一切呢？</blockquote></p><p> The Bespoke analysts noted that the usual caveats apply — there’s no guarantee and past performance isn’t indicative of future results — but the data does underline the observation that “strength often begets strength in the market.”</p><p><blockquote>Bespoke分析师指出，通常的警告是适用的——没有保证，过去的表现并不代表未来的结果——但数据确实强调了“实力往往会带来市场实力”的观察结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-comparing-the-2021-stock-market-to-the-summer-of-1987-should-they-11629301481?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-comparing-the-2021-stock-market-to-the-summer-of-1987-should-they-11629301481?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161930198","content_text":"‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee\n'Wall Street' in the pre-working from home era. EVERETT COLLECTION\nSome investors are drawing parallels between the stock market’s 2021 climb and the pattern seen in 1987, a year that saw a seemingly relentless rally completely undone by the “Black Monday” crash in October, but there are some important differences, analysts note.\nGranted, the comparison does feel appropriate, at least on the surface, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Wednesday note.\n“Everyone, from plugged-in hedge-fund managers to retail investors, is making money. The movie ‘Wall Street’ debuted in late 1987 and, while this decade’s Bud Fox may be working from home, the overall societal vibe is similar.”\nBut the comparison doesn’t look so apt when comparing the year-to-date performances of the S&P 500 index,he said. The large-cap benchmark was up 36% through Aug. 17, 1987, versus just 18% for the same period in 2021.\nAs for the two years prior, 1985 and 1986 saw S&P 500 total returns of 31% and 18%, respectively, matching up identically with returns in 2019 and 2020 which Colas acknowledged is a bit “spooky.” However, he maintained, the 2021 rally is still a “pale comparison” to what was going on in 1987.\nStocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, a day after the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average each snapped a five-session streak of record finishes.\nMeanwhile, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group this week pointed out that the S&P 500 is on pace to set a record for, well, records. Tuesday’s all-time closing high was not only the fifth in a row, it was also the 49th of 2021. That puts the index on track for 78 closing highs this year, which would edge out the record 77 seen in 1995.\nIt’s no sure thing, the Bespoke analysts cautioned, noting that even a 5% pullback could eat into the ability to maintain a record-breaking pace. They noted that since 1950, there have been five years where the S&P 500 had more than 40 record highs through Aug. 16, and while both 1995 and 1964 were the leaders in those years, years like 1987, 1997, and 1998 also had more than 40 record highs at this point in the year, and none of them finished the year with more than 50.\nBut more important, what does such a rapid pace of closing highs mean for full-year performance? It’s mostly positive, as one would suspect, though there are exceptions, including, of course, 1987 (see table below).\nBESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP\nThe S&P 500’s year-to-date gain is very similar to the median and average return of the five prior years in the table, the analysts noted.\n“Looking ahead, the median rest of year performance for the index from the close on 8/16 through year-end was a gain of 7.7% with positive returns four out of five times and more than doubling the average rest of year performance for all years since 1950,” they wrote, noting that “the one exception was in 1987 and it was a doozy.”\nSo what should investors make of it all?\nThe Bespoke analysts noted that the usual caveats apply — there’s no guarantee and past performance isn’t indicative of future results — but the data does underline the observation that “strength often begets strength in the market.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833505758,"gmtCreate":1629248241274,"gmtModify":1631892066269,"author":{"id":"3576051682201625","authorId":"3576051682201625","name":"alexseahwj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5104c5b64b63b0070c1793ca39d077ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576051682201625","idStr":"3576051682201625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like 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","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154472291","repostId":"1190430616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897725586,"gmtCreate":1628988947145,"gmtModify":1631892066283,"author":{"id":"3576051682201625","authorId":"3576051682201625","name":"alexseahwj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5104c5b64b63b0070c1793ca39d077ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576051682201625","authorIdStr":"3576051682201625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897725586","repostId":"1133270372","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133270372","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628988501,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133270372?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后的普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133270372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPlug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.\nIt serves low-ri","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Plug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.</li> <li>It serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.</li> <li>Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa1aea5535d99338f385c168062b218\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Fokusiert/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>普拉格能源活跃在一个具有巨大增长动力的有吸引力的行业中。</li><li>它服务于低风险客户，在行业中拥有强大的地位。</li><li>股价反映了未来的大量增长，投资者在以当前估值配置资金之前应该考虑实际每股回报可能是什么样子。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Fokusiert/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司（PLUG）活跃于高增长行业，只要公司能够实现其目标并且管理层执行良好，这就意味着强劲的长期业务增长前景。然而，该公司尚未盈利，实现有意义的净利润的道路仍然存在一些不确定性。从更长远的角度来看，我们可以预计普拉格能源将产生正的净利润，尽管该公司目前的估值相对较高。不过，从风险回报的角度来看，可能有更好的选择，尽管我相信2031年股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:</p><p><blockquote>去年，普拉格能源公司的股价剧烈上下波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940297249151eddcccf6440d20ef031\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.</p><p><blockquote>股价比12个月前上涨了130%，但与此同时，股价仅为今天历史高点的三分之一。2021年初，其他可再生能源/新能源及相关股票（包括电动汽车）受益于投资者的巨大热情，股价大幅上涨。此后，热情似乎有所降温，股价又回到了20多美元。按目前价格计算，普拉格能源公司的估值为160亿美元，稀释后的股票数量略低于6亿股。分析师目前非常看好该股，因为41美元的一致目标价意味着明年较当前价格有50%左右的上涨潜力。但值得注意的是，近几个月来分析师一致的目标价已被下调，并且未来可能会继续下调。由于不存在利润，PLUG无法以盈利为基础进行估值，但股价约为今年收入的30倍，这相当昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Prediction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司活跃在一个绝对增长的行业，因为氢燃料电池将在未来几年看到巨大的需求增长，因为它们允许作为其他燃料的环保替代品。普拉格能源作为该技术市场领先地位的交钥匙供应商，完全有能力利用这一大趋势。通过包括Brookfield Renewable Partners(BEP)在内的全球合作伙伴网络，普拉格能源正在致力于在全球范围内发展绿色氢产业：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a8e3b57882e429c9eace431bd1f541\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Plug Power presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：普拉格能源演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源的绿色氢可用于为卡车、公共汽车和其他车辆提供动力，同时该公司还为公用事业公司使用的兆瓦级柴油发电机提供环保替代品。除此之外，该公司还致力于其他尚未准备好商业化的项目，例如用氢气为飞机提供动力。到2024年，即三年后，普拉格能源将在美国至少有5座制氢工厂投入运营，美国和欧洲等海外市场还有更多项目正在酝酿中。</blockquote></p><p> 80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源80%的客户是该公司的评级蓝筹客户，其中包括亚马逊（AMZN）等公司。这些公司通常非常倾向于改善其二氧化碳足迹，以获得更好的ESG评级，同时，这些公司是低风险客户，因为其强劲的资产负债表和现金流意味着流动性或偿付能力问题的风险可以忽略不计。总体而言，普拉格能源因此与有吸引力的同行合作，他们的财务火力意味着普拉格能源不会被迫以便宜的价格出售其产品，这就是为什么该公司最近几个季度能够产生相对有吸引力的产品毛利率在30年代。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Due to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于公司规模仍然相对较小，普拉格能源在净利润或运营基础上均未盈利。相对于普拉格能源产生的收入，该公司的运营费用目前仍然过高。然而，这种情况应该会随着时间的推移而改变，因为运营杠杆和产品利润率的提高应该会使普拉格能源的毛利润相对于运营费用增长，从而提高盈利能力。分析师目前预测2024财年（即三年后）净利润为正。当然，如果普拉格能源已经达到了这一点，那就更好了，但对于注重长期的投资者来说，再有两年的负利润并不是一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p> When investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:</p><p><blockquote>在投资普拉格能源这样的公司时，短期并不太重要，但更重要的是公司收入和利润增长的长期潜力。通过ESG顺风、大规模市场增长及其市场领导地位的结合，普拉格能源似乎处于有利地位，可以在未来许多年增加收入：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6f0576ba51f219d85b18d90ccaf6f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"628\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测，未来三年收入将以每年50%以上的速度增长，而至少到2030年，增长率预计将保持近30%，这相当于极具吸引力的长期增长前景。当然，不能保证这种情况确实会发生，因为商业模式的一些风险仍然存在。该公司尚未盈利，因此未来增长项目的资金理论上可能会成为一个问题。最重要的是，其他财力雄厚的参与者可能会试图扰乱市场或获得市场份额。我相信，由于普拉格能源的领导地位，这种风险并不是很大。但如果市场竞争变得更加激烈，非盈利的普拉格能源如果遭遇市场份额争夺战，可能会给利润率带来压力，可能会遇到问题。</blockquote></p><p> Some execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，一些执行风险确实仍然存在，投资者不应将上述增长预测视为绝对可靠的清晰预测。然而，相反，上述预测展示了基本情况可能是什么样子，实际结果可能比这更好或更差。总体而言，可以说普拉格能源业务的长期前景非常好，因为随着投资者、公司和消费者越来越重视更小的碳足迹，该公司应该能够在未来许多年以有吸引力的速度增长。然而，一个行业明显的增长前景并不会自动转化为股价上涨。例如，那些在互联网泡沫期间高位购买思科(CSCO)股票的公司，尽管该业务在此期间经历了巨大增长，但22年后的今天仍然处于亏损状态。估值也应该考虑，普拉格能源今天的价格远非便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Forecast For 2030</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2030年普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.</p><p><blockquote>如今，普拉格能源的股价约为今年预期收入的32倍。如果这是市盈率，相对于公司的平均估值，该股仍然不会特别便宜。以超过30倍的销售额计算，股价确实看起来非常昂贵。当我们考虑PLUG未来十年的增长前景时，这在某种程度上是相对的，但我相信股价仍高于公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师对2030年收入的一致估计是正确的，为105亿美元，那么目前股价的交易价格约为2030年收入的1.5倍。许多工业公司目前的交易价格是今年收入的1至2倍，这表明PLUG的股票已经反映了未来的增长。当然，人们可以说，PLUG在2030年的增长前景可能仍好于当今的普通公司，因为PLUG很有可能在2030年之后以两位数的速度增长。但我相信，PLUG股价在未来十年的上涨空间不会太大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.</p><p><blockquote>如果PLUG在2030年的交易收入仍然相对较高的3.5倍，那么我们的市值估计约为370亿美元，大约是今天的2.3倍。然而，PLUG的股票数量在未来十年不会保持不变，这就是为什么每股回报率将低于这一数字。如果我们假设股票数量每年仅增长2%，那么2030年的股票数量将略高于7亿股。在370亿美元的市值下，每只股票的交易价格约为53美元，这意味着从今天起的回报率约为100%。按年计算，这相当于8%的回报率。8%的年回报率远非坏事，但要实现这一目标，许多事情必须顺利进行——PLUG必须执行良好，交付增长项目，并避免大规模股票发行。当我们还考虑到这一估计需要2030年仍然相当高的3.5倍销售倍数时，我相信这些回报还不足以保证买入评级。8%的回报可能来自风险非常低、不确定性非常低的蓝筹股，但这里的情况并非如此。作为参考，如果PLUG执行良好并达到增长预期，但其股价在2030年的交易价格为销售额的2.5倍，那么假设年稀释2%，股价将为37美元，这相当于年回报率仅为4%。仅去年一年，PLUG的股票数量就增加了约50%，尽管我预计未来几年不会出现类似的稀释，但PLUG的股票数量至少有可能每年大幅增加2%以上，这将进一步给回报带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我不认为投资者在未来十年或更长时间内会因PLUG而亏损。但我也不相信投资者会在这段时间内看到非常有吸引力的回报，尽管普拉格能源的基本业务增长前景非常有吸引力。股票已经反映了未来的大量增长，我相信通过风险较低、股票波动性较小的投资也可以产生低于10%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</b></blockquote></p><p> One can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.</p><p><blockquote>今天人们无法知道这一点，但我们可以做出有根据的猜测。根据上面列出的5月份情景，PLUG在2030年的交易价格可能为37-55美元，考虑到又一年的增长，我相信，如果很多事情进展顺利，我们在2031年的交易价格可能会达到40-60美元。如果增长项目出现重大问题，或者股票数量增长超过预期，这些估计可能会过高。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为PLUG的股票有相当大的长期上涨潜力，但中高个位数范围的预期回报并不巨大，通过更成熟、波动性更小的投资可以产生相同的回报，不确定性更少，执行风险更小。因此，我确实认为PLUG在这里不值得买入，尽管我喜欢该公司的增长前景及其在有吸引力的行业中的地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后的普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后的普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 08:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Plug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.</li> <li>It serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.</li> <li>Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa1aea5535d99338f385c168062b218\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Fokusiert/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>普拉格能源活跃在一个具有巨大增长动力的有吸引力的行业中。</li><li>它服务于低风险客户，在行业中拥有强大的地位。</li><li>股价反映了未来的大量增长，投资者在以当前估值配置资金之前应该考虑实际每股回报可能是什么样子。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Fokusiert/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司（PLUG）活跃于高增长行业，只要公司能够实现其目标并且管理层执行良好，这就意味着强劲的长期业务增长前景。然而，该公司尚未盈利，实现有意义的净利润的道路仍然存在一些不确定性。从更长远的角度来看，我们可以预计普拉格能源将产生正的净利润，尽管该公司目前的估值相对较高。不过，从风险回报的角度来看，可能有更好的选择，尽管我相信2031年股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:</p><p><blockquote>去年，普拉格能源公司的股价剧烈上下波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940297249151eddcccf6440d20ef031\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.</p><p><blockquote>股价比12个月前上涨了130%，但与此同时，股价仅为今天历史高点的三分之一。2021年初，其他可再生能源/新能源及相关股票（包括电动汽车）受益于投资者的巨大热情，股价大幅上涨。此后，热情似乎有所降温，股价又回到了20多美元。按目前价格计算，普拉格能源公司的估值为160亿美元，稀释后的股票数量略低于6亿股。分析师目前非常看好该股，因为41美元的一致目标价意味着明年较当前价格有50%左右的上涨潜力。但值得注意的是，近几个月来分析师一致的目标价已被下调，并且未来可能会继续下调。由于不存在利润，PLUG无法以盈利为基础进行估值，但股价约为今年收入的30倍，这相当昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Prediction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司活跃在一个绝对增长的行业，因为氢燃料电池将在未来几年看到巨大的需求增长，因为它们允许作为其他燃料的环保替代品。普拉格能源作为该技术市场领先地位的交钥匙供应商，完全有能力利用这一大趋势。通过包括Brookfield Renewable Partners(BEP)在内的全球合作伙伴网络，普拉格能源正在致力于在全球范围内发展绿色氢产业：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a8e3b57882e429c9eace431bd1f541\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Plug Power presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：普拉格能源演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源的绿色氢可用于为卡车、公共汽车和其他车辆提供动力，同时该公司还为公用事业公司使用的兆瓦级柴油发电机提供环保替代品。除此之外，该公司还致力于其他尚未准备好商业化的项目，例如用氢气为飞机提供动力。到2024年，即三年后，普拉格能源将在美国至少有5座制氢工厂投入运营，美国和欧洲等海外市场还有更多项目正在酝酿中。</blockquote></p><p> 80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源80%的客户是该公司的评级蓝筹客户，其中包括亚马逊（AMZN）等公司。这些公司通常非常倾向于改善其二氧化碳足迹，以获得更好的ESG评级，同时，这些公司是低风险客户，因为其强劲的资产负债表和现金流意味着流动性或偿付能力问题的风险可以忽略不计。总体而言，普拉格能源因此与有吸引力的同行合作，他们的财务火力意味着普拉格能源不会被迫以便宜的价格出售其产品，这就是为什么该公司最近几个季度能够产生相对有吸引力的产品毛利率在30年代。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Due to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于公司规模仍然相对较小，普拉格能源在净利润或运营基础上均未盈利。相对于普拉格能源产生的收入，该公司的运营费用目前仍然过高。然而，这种情况应该会随着时间的推移而改变，因为运营杠杆和产品利润率的提高应该会使普拉格能源的毛利润相对于运营费用增长，从而提高盈利能力。分析师目前预测2024财年（即三年后）净利润为正。当然，如果普拉格能源已经达到了这一点，那就更好了，但对于注重长期的投资者来说，再有两年的负利润并不是一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p> When investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:</p><p><blockquote>在投资普拉格能源这样的公司时，短期并不太重要，但更重要的是公司收入和利润增长的长期潜力。通过ESG顺风、大规模市场增长及其市场领导地位的结合，普拉格能源似乎处于有利地位，可以在未来许多年增加收入：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6f0576ba51f219d85b18d90ccaf6f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"628\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测，未来三年收入将以每年50%以上的速度增长，而至少到2030年，增长率预计将保持近30%，这相当于极具吸引力的长期增长前景。当然，不能保证这种情况确实会发生，因为商业模式的一些风险仍然存在。该公司尚未盈利，因此未来增长项目的资金理论上可能会成为一个问题。最重要的是，其他财力雄厚的参与者可能会试图扰乱市场或获得市场份额。我相信，由于普拉格能源的领导地位，这种风险并不是很大。但如果市场竞争变得更加激烈，非盈利的普拉格能源如果遭遇市场份额争夺战，可能会给利润率带来压力，可能会遇到问题。</blockquote></p><p> Some execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，一些执行风险确实仍然存在，投资者不应将上述增长预测视为绝对可靠的清晰预测。然而，相反，上述预测展示了基本情况可能是什么样子，实际结果可能比这更好或更差。总体而言，可以说普拉格能源业务的长期前景非常好，因为随着投资者、公司和消费者越来越重视更小的碳足迹，该公司应该能够在未来许多年以有吸引力的速度增长。然而，一个行业明显的增长前景并不会自动转化为股价上涨。例如，那些在互联网泡沫期间高位购买思科(CSCO)股票的公司，尽管该业务在此期间经历了巨大增长，但22年后的今天仍然处于亏损状态。估值也应该考虑，普拉格能源今天的价格远非便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Forecast For 2030</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2030年普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.</p><p><blockquote>如今，普拉格能源的股价约为今年预期收入的32倍。如果这是市盈率，相对于公司的平均估值，该股仍然不会特别便宜。以超过30倍的销售额计算，股价确实看起来非常昂贵。当我们考虑PLUG未来十年的增长前景时，这在某种程度上是相对的，但我相信股价仍高于公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师对2030年收入的一致估计是正确的，为105亿美元，那么目前股价的交易价格约为2030年收入的1.5倍。许多工业公司目前的交易价格是今年收入的1至2倍，这表明PLUG的股票已经反映了未来的增长。当然，人们可以说，PLUG在2030年的增长前景可能仍好于当今的普通公司，因为PLUG很有可能在2030年之后以两位数的速度增长。但我相信，PLUG股价在未来十年的上涨空间不会太大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.</p><p><blockquote>如果PLUG在2030年的交易收入仍然相对较高的3.5倍，那么我们的市值估计约为370亿美元，大约是今天的2.3倍。然而，PLUG的股票数量在未来十年不会保持不变，这就是为什么每股回报率将低于这一数字。如果我们假设股票数量每年仅增长2%，那么2030年的股票数量将略高于7亿股。在370亿美元的市值下，每只股票的交易价格约为53美元，这意味着从今天起的回报率约为100%。按年计算，这相当于8%的回报率。8%的年回报率远非坏事，但要实现这一目标，许多事情必须顺利进行——PLUG必须执行良好，交付增长项目，并避免大规模股票发行。当我们还考虑到这一估计需要2030年仍然相当高的3.5倍销售倍数时，我相信这些回报还不足以保证买入评级。8%的回报可能来自风险非常低、不确定性非常低的蓝筹股，但这里的情况并非如此。作为参考，如果PLUG执行良好并达到增长预期，但其股价在2030年的交易价格为销售额的2.5倍，那么假设年稀释2%，股价将为37美元，这相当于年回报率仅为4%。仅去年一年，PLUG的股票数量就增加了约50%，尽管我预计未来几年不会出现类似的稀释，但PLUG的股票数量至少有可能每年大幅增加2%以上，这将进一步给回报带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我不认为投资者在未来十年或更长时间内会因PLUG而亏损。但我也不相信投资者会在这段时间内看到非常有吸引力的回报，尽管普拉格能源的基本业务增长前景非常有吸引力。股票已经反映了未来的大量增长，我相信通过风险较低、股票波动性较小的投资也可以产生低于10%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</b></blockquote></p><p> One can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.</p><p><blockquote>今天人们无法知道这一点，但我们可以做出有根据的猜测。根据上面列出的5月份情景，PLUG在2030年的交易价格可能为37-55美元，考虑到又一年的增长，我相信，如果很多事情进展顺利，我们在2031年的交易价格可能会达到40-60美元。如果增长项目出现重大问题，或者股票数量增长超过预期，这些估计可能会过高。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为PLUG的股票有相当大的长期上涨潜力，但中高个位数范围的预期回报并不巨大，通过更成熟、波动性更小的投资可以产生相同的回报，不确定性更少，执行风险更小。因此，我确实认为PLUG在这里不值得买入，尽管我喜欢该公司的增长前景及其在有吸引力的行业中的地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449266-plug-power-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449266-plug-power-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133270372","content_text":"Summary\n\nPlug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.\nIt serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.\nShares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.\n\nFokusiert/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPlug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.\nPlug Power Stock Price\nPlug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:\nData by YCharts\nShares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.\nPlug Power Stock Prediction\nPlug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:\nSource: Plug Power presentation\nPlug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.\n80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.\nDue to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.\nWhen investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAnalysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.\nSome execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.\nPlug Power Stock Forecast For 2030\nToday, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.\nIf the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.\nIf PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.\nOverall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.\nConclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?\nOne can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.\nOverall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805944243,"gmtCreate":1627857769682,"gmtModify":1633756001737,"author":{"id":"3576051682201625","authorId":"3576051682201625","name":"alexseahwj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5104c5b64b63b0070c1793ca39d077ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576051682201625","authorIdStr":"3576051682201625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805944243","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145290383,"gmtCreate":1626224223242,"gmtModify":1633928906881,"author":{"id":"3576051682201625","authorId":"3576051682201625","name":"alexseahwj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5104c5b64b63b0070c1793ca39d077ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576051682201625","authorIdStr":"3576051682201625"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145290383","repostId":"2151560584","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
