四甲坝坝主的个人主页 - 老虎社区

四甲坝坝主

四甲坝坝主

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IP属地：新疆

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四甲坝坝主

01-16

‌$奈飞(NFLX)$ ‌‌懂王没啥作用，派拉蒙诚意远远没有奈飞足，而且为了未来考虑华纳必将选择奈飞，派拉蒙大股东埃里森儿子包括他父亲甲骨文创始人他们一家都是大忽悠，坚定看好奈飞收购成功。

四甲坝坝主

01-12

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 买在无人问津处，现在不买更待何时

四甲坝坝主

2025-12-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今天卖掉的人后面要后悔死[真香]

四甲坝坝主

2025-07-24

$东方电气(01072)$ 25以上买的还有回本希望么[流泪]

四甲坝坝主

2025-11-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 吃不消。。。但我继续加仓[开心]

四甲坝坝主

2025-08-09

$Tron Inc.(TRON)$ 哪来那么多卖盘的。。。

四甲坝坝主

2025-08-07

$Tron Inc.(TRON)$ 7连阴，牛的

四甲坝坝主

2025-10-06

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉大概率要出芯片了，各位股东做好准备起飞了嘛

四甲坝坝主

2025-07-25

$东方电气(01072)$ 我算是看出来了，要买18以下再考虑[生气]

四甲坝坝主

01-27

$鸣鸣很忙(01768)$ 明天还会有一波。明天集合竞价再卖也来得及

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Twinkle在2026年初开局强劲，为增长接力提供观察窗口。</strong></p>\n<p>汇丰将泡泡玛特目标价从392.5港元下调至354港元，瑞银维持326港元，两家机构均维持“买入”。在2月9日收盘价257.2港元附近计算，对应隐含上行空间分别约38%与26.7%，但共同的前提是，2025年的爆发式增长难以原样复刻。</p>\n<p>对投资者而言，关键变量正在从“抢购式加速”转向“常态零售扩张+新品节奏”。汇丰下调2026年收入与利润增速预测，指向会员复购强度回落与增速降档，但也强调估值已在一定程度上计入IP生命周期风险，后续更看重新品孵化与全球化落地的执行力。</p>\n<div>\n<h2>2025拆解：Labubu与毛绒“推翻重来”，但底盘并非空心</h2>\n</div>\n<p>汇丰将2025年高增长拆解为两根杠杆。按IP拆分，The Monsters（Labubu）收入同比约+582%，收入贡献被估算抬升至47%（此前约23%）。按品类拆分，毛绒玩具收入同比约+720%，贡献抬升至60%（此前约22%）。这使得泡泡玛特的增长更接近消费品意义上的爆款周期，即IP热度叠加新品类放量，带来更高频、更高客单、也更易传播的产品形态。</p>\n<p>但汇丰同样强调“剔除爆款后的底盘”。其估算口径下，剔除The Monsters后，<strong>2025年收入仍同比增长约106%，剔除毛绒后，收入仍同比增长约51%。这意味着，2025年的增量高度集中，但公司原有业务盘子并未停滞。</strong></p>\n<p>在中国内地，最容易被忽略的增量来源是复购会员ARPU。汇丰称，2025年内地收入增长中，复购会员（年购买次数&gt;2次）的ARPU提升贡献“接近一半”。结构数据指向“供给偏紧”阶段的强购买强度：2025年内地会员贡献销售占比约91%，重复购买占比约55.8%，重复购买人群贡献销售占比约83%。这种由紧缺驱动的斜率，决定了后续一旦供需错配缓解，增速下台阶几乎是逻辑必然。</p>\n<div>\n<h2>2026再定基：ARPU正常化，增长回到“扩张年”框架</h2>\n</div>\n<p><strong>汇丰对2026年的核心判断是，“rush-to-buy”效应退潮后，复购会员ARPU将正常化，从而把增长从爆发状态拉回零售扩张的常态轨道。</strong>基于这一变化，汇丰将2026年营收增速预测从30.6%下调至23.7%，净利润增速预测从29.1%下调至21.3%，并削减2026-2027年盈利预测11%-13%。目标价下调主要来自盈利预测下修，而非估值框架推翻，其DCF关键假设WACC 10%、永续增长率3%保持不变。</p>\n<p>在区域结构上，汇丰预计2026年PRC收入增速约13.0%，海外约35.7%。海外被视为对冲国内ARPU回落的核心缓冲垫，但逻辑也从“起量”走向“铺开”，更依赖线下点位执行：海外零售POS数量预计从2025年的218增至2026年的331。对市场而言，这意味着增长的可见度更取决于选址、供给匹配、爆品节奏与本地化运营等细节。</p>\n<p>风险也因此更偏“执行侧”。汇丰点名的扰动包括供应链跟不上需求、黄牛加价挤出真实消费者、股东配售带来短期股价压力、仿品影响品牌、与合作艺术家的独家授权续约风险，以及进入新业务/并购导致资本错配，另有竞争加剧与线下客流扰动等行业层面风险。</p>\n<div>\n<h2>估值与接力：新IP能否补上“后Labubu”增长缺口</h2>\n</div>\n<p>在估值层面，汇丰认为市场已在用估值压缩消化“Labubu生命周期风险”。其依据是，自2025年初以来，公司一年期前瞻EPS上升约394%，但基于一致预期的一年期前瞻PE较2025年平均水平回落约45%，较2025年峰值回落约65%。在这一背景下，汇丰更关注“平台能力”是否能持续孵化并全球化新IP，而非单纯押注爆款热度延长。</p>\n<p><strong>瑞银的“接力观察”集中在新品与海外互动。</strong>其指出，新推IP Twinkle在2026年初表现强劲，情人节款在天猫和抖音分别售出3万件和4.6万件以上，春节款毛绒玩具在天猫首发当日售出超过2万件。海外方面，Skull Panda x 小马宝莉联名系列在北美官网配送到家渠道售罄，Instagram预告获46万点赞。瑞银同时提示，美国等海外市场仍需加强消费者互动、本土IP与品牌建设，海外新员工比例较高、用户对多个IP的认知仍在培育。</p>\n<p>两家机构均将后续数据视为验证点。瑞银称，年报及2026年一季度销售数据将用于检验中国与海外市场，尤其是美国市场的环比表现。对于投资者而言，“后Labubu时代”的核心问题不在于2025是否<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">辉煌</a>，而在于2026起能否用新品<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>、海外点位扩张与更可持续的会员经营，接住从爆发到常态的增长切换。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>年销4亿件！\"后Labubu时代\"，泡泡玛特的高增长能否持续？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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class=\"title\">\n年销4亿件！\"后Labubu时代\"，泡泡玛特的高增长能否持续？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-10 11:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765358><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>泡泡玛特2月9日公告显示，2025年公司全IP、全品类产品全球销量超过4亿件，其中THE MONSTERS 全品类产品全球销量超过1亿件。\n泡泡玛特2025年经历了典型的“单一超级IP+品类突破”式放量，营收同比接近三倍扩张，核心推力来自Labubu全球出圈，以及毛绒玩具显著放大IP变现效率，最新的经营数据把市场关注点推向“爆款之后”。\n据追风交易台，汇丰环球研究分析师Lina Yan在报告中判断...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765358\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885447e000f5e02536cd166eeda13f45","relate_stocks":{"LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","SG9999002950.SGD":"United Asian Growth Opportunities SGD","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1770036033.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" 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SGD","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765358","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2610691900","content_text":"泡泡玛特2月9日公告显示，2025年公司全IP、全品类产品全球销量超过4亿件，其中THE MONSTERS 全品类产品全球销量超过1亿件。\n泡泡玛特2025年经历了典型的“单一超级IP+品类突破”式放量，营收同比接近三倍扩张，核心推力来自Labubu全球出圈，以及毛绒玩具显著放大IP变现效率，最新的经营数据把市场关注点推向“爆款之后”。\n据追风交易台，汇丰环球研究分析师Lina Yan在报告中判断，“Labubu带来的超高速增长会褪去，但平台能力会延续”，并将2026年定义为“再定基”的一年。瑞银认为，数据有助于缓解市场对单一爆款依赖的担忧，同时新IP Twinkle在2026年初开局强劲，为增长接力提供观察窗口。\n汇丰将泡泡玛特目标价从392.5港元下调至354港元，瑞银维持326港元，两家机构均维持“买入”。在2月9日收盘价257.2港元附近计算，对应隐含上行空间分别约38%与26.7%，但共同的前提是，2025年的爆发式增长难以原样复刻。\n对投资者而言，关键变量正在从“抢购式加速”转向“常态零售扩张+新品节奏”。汇丰下调2026年收入与利润增速预测，指向会员复购强度回落与增速降档，但也强调估值已在一定程度上计入IP生命周期风险，后续更看重新品孵化与全球化落地的执行力。\n\n2025拆解：Labubu与毛绒“推翻重来”，但底盘并非空心\n\n汇丰将2025年高增长拆解为两根杠杆。按IP拆分，The Monsters（Labubu）收入同比约+582%，收入贡献被估算抬升至47%（此前约23%）。按品类拆分，毛绒玩具收入同比约+720%，贡献抬升至60%（此前约22%）。这使得泡泡玛特的增长更接近消费品意义上的爆款周期，即IP热度叠加新品类放量，带来更高频、更高客单、也更易传播的产品形态。\n但汇丰同样强调“剔除爆款后的底盘”。其估算口径下，剔除The Monsters后，2025年收入仍同比增长约106%，剔除毛绒后，收入仍同比增长约51%。这意味着，2025年的增量高度集中，但公司原有业务盘子并未停滞。\n在中国内地，最容易被忽略的增量来源是复购会员ARPU。汇丰称，2025年内地收入增长中，复购会员（年购买次数>2次）的ARPU提升贡献“接近一半”。结构数据指向“供给偏紧”阶段的强购买强度：2025年内地会员贡献销售占比约91%，重复购买占比约55.8%，重复购买人群贡献销售占比约83%。这种由紧缺驱动的斜率，决定了后续一旦供需错配缓解，增速下台阶几乎是逻辑必然。\n\n2026再定基：ARPU正常化，增长回到“扩张年”框架\n\n汇丰对2026年的核心判断是，“rush-to-buy”效应退潮后，复购会员ARPU将正常化，从而把增长从爆发状态拉回零售扩张的常态轨道。基于这一变化，汇丰将2026年营收增速预测从30.6%下调至23.7%，净利润增速预测从29.1%下调至21.3%，并削减2026-2027年盈利预测11%-13%。目标价下调主要来自盈利预测下修，而非估值框架推翻，其DCF关键假设WACC 10%、永续增长率3%保持不变。\n在区域结构上，汇丰预计2026年PRC收入增速约13.0%，海外约35.7%。海外被视为对冲国内ARPU回落的核心缓冲垫，但逻辑也从“起量”走向“铺开”，更依赖线下点位执行：海外零售POS数量预计从2025年的218增至2026年的331。对市场而言，这意味着增长的可见度更取决于选址、供给匹配、爆品节奏与本地化运营等细节。\n风险也因此更偏“执行侧”。汇丰点名的扰动包括供应链跟不上需求、黄牛加价挤出真实消费者、股东配售带来短期股价压力、仿品影响品牌、与合作艺术家的独家授权续约风险，以及进入新业务/并购导致资本错配，另有竞争加剧与线下客流扰动等行业层面风险。\n\n估值与接力：新IP能否补上“后Labubu”增长缺口\n\n在估值层面，汇丰认为市场已在用估值压缩消化“Labubu生命周期风险”。其依据是，自2025年初以来，公司一年期前瞻EPS上升约394%，但基于一致预期的一年期前瞻PE较2025年平均水平回落约45%，较2025年峰值回落约65%。在这一背景下，汇丰更关注“平台能力”是否能持续孵化并全球化新IP，而非单纯押注爆款热度延长。\n瑞银的“接力观察”集中在新品与海外互动。其指出，新推IP Twinkle在2026年初表现强劲，情人节款在天猫和抖音分别售出3万件和4.6万件以上，春节款毛绒玩具在天猫首发当日售出超过2万件。海外方面，Skull Panda x 小马宝莉联名系列在北美官网配送到家渠道售罄，Instagram预告获46万点赞。瑞银同时提示，美国等海外市场仍需加强消费者互动、本土IP与品牌建设，海外新员工比例较高、用户对多个IP的认知仍在培育。\n两家机构均将后续数据视为验证点。瑞银称，年报及2026年一季度销售数据将用于检验中国与海外市场，尤其是美国市场的环比表现。对于投资者而言，“后Labubu时代”的核心问题不在于2025是否辉煌，而在于2026起能否用新品矩阵、海外点位扩张与更可持续的会员经营，接住从爆发到常态的增长切换。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529127596560800,"gmtCreate":1770171424127,"gmtModify":1770171426137,"author":{"id":"3575672226475362","authorId":"3575672226475362","name":"四甲坝坝主","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed1872f351c3dee0d61a1a366951ef6","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575672226475362","authorIdStr":"3575672226475362"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$&nbsp;</a> 压力这么大？几天了还过不去","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$&nbsp;</a> 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