四甲坝坝主的个人主页 - 老虎社区

四甲坝坝主

四甲坝坝主

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IP属地：江苏

22关注

6粉丝

4主题

0勋章

四甲坝坝主

03-03

$Ondas Holdings Inc.(ONDS)$ 同样无人机，你怎么这么废

四甲坝坝主

03-03

$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 还能到300么？

四甲坝坝主

02-26

现在火的不是拉布布而是星星人，什么都要抢[开心]

潮玩泡沫终破：Labubu遇冷，行业回归理性本质

四甲坝坝主

02-13

$白银/美元(XAGUSD.FOREX)$ 春节最容易出流动性危机的时候，也是最佳的去杠杆时机。短期看空，看涨要等春节后看

四甲坝坝主

02-10

泡泡玛特未来是全世界优秀ip的展示售卖平台

年销4亿件！"后Labubu时代"，泡泡玛特的高增长能否持续？

四甲坝坝主

02-04

$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 压力这么大？几天了还过不去

四甲坝坝主

02-02

现在目前看只是回归趋势

四甲坝坝主

02-02

$2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares(UGL)$ 长期看多，现在就是现货最佳的建仓时机。4300到4800区域。

四甲坝坝主

01-28

$2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares(UGL)$ 落袋为安了，晚上开会波动肯定大，睡个安心觉再说。明天回调就接回来，不回就命不该有[生气] [生气]

四甲坝坝主

01-28

$鸣鸣很忙(01768)$ 集合竞价不知道哪位乱开价，差点给我涨晕了๑_๑

四甲坝坝主

01-27

$鸣鸣很忙(01768)$ 明天还会有一波。明天集合竞价再卖也来得及

四甲坝坝主

01-20

回调多少可以入，感觉后面天然气要不输贵金属

四甲坝坝主

01-17

‌我也是牛，这么多股选中了你。。。‌

四甲坝坝主

01-16

‌不知道的以为要倒闭了‌

四甲坝坝主

01-16

‌赶紧在财报前一步到位跌到120

四甲坝坝主

01-16

‌$奈飞(NFLX)$ ‌‌懂王没啥作用，派拉蒙诚意远远没有奈飞足，而且为了未来考虑华纳必将选择奈飞，派拉蒙大股东埃里森儿子包括他父亲甲骨文创始人他们一家都是大忽悠，坚定看好奈飞收购成功。

四甲坝坝主

01-12

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 买在无人问津处，现在不买更待何时

四甲坝坝主

01-06

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 4小时k线明显的n型空头反包，直接看38支撑吧

四甲坝坝主

01-05

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 绝逼有人在恶意做空，并且同时利用舆论造势。

四甲坝坝主

01-05

‌小米绝对是有人在恶意做空并且搭配舆论造势。

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$&nbsp;</a>还能到300么？","text":"$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 还能到300么？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/538602311488400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":536792306280000,"gmtCreate":1772071895592,"gmtModify":1772071897989,"author":{"id":"3575672226475362","authorId":"3575672226475362","name":"四甲坝坝主","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed1872f351c3dee0d61a1a366951ef6","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575672226475362","idStr":"3575672226475362"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"现在火的不是拉布布而是星星人，什么都要抢[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"现在火的不是拉布布而是星星人，什么都要抢[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"现在火的不是拉布布而是星星人，什么都要抢[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/536792306280000","repostId":"2614771233","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2614771233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1771989667,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2614771233?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-25 11:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"潮玩泡沫终破：Labubu遇冷，行业回归理性本质","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614771233","media":"经理人杂志","summary":"2025年，泡泡玛特Labubu系列的命运转折，成为潮玩行业发展史上的一道鲜明分水岭。回顾Labubu系列的爆火时刻，其热度堪称现象级。随着投机资金陆续离场，消费者逐渐觉醒并拒绝为溢价买单，Labubu系列的热度急转直下，陷入全面遇冷的困境。Labubu系列的爆火，源于其IP形象的独特性与情感吸引力；而其遇冷，则是因为过度炒作稀释了IP价值，让产品脱离了消费本质。Labubu系列的兴衰，为整个潮玩行业敲响了警钟。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260225122213078v206ymxozmtap5x\"/><p>2025年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>Labubu系列的命运转折，成为潮玩行业发展史上的一道鲜明分水岭。</p><p>这个曾凭一己之力掀起抢购狂潮的顶流IP，从开售秒罄的巅峰急速坠入无人问津的冰点，不仅戳破了持续多年的潮玩投资泡沫，更迫使整个行业褪去炒作滤镜，重新回归消费品的核心本质，资本市场的剧烈震荡与消费市场的理性反转，共同为狂热的潮玩行业敲响了警钟。</p><p>回顾Labubu系列的爆火时刻，其热度堪称现象级。作为泡泡玛特旗下的核心IP，该系列曾凭借独特的设计风格和盲盒玩法，俘获了大量消费者与投机者的目光，新品开售即秒罄成为常态，二手市场更是溢价惊人。数据显示，原价594元的搪胶毛绒系列，二手均价一度飙升至1478元，近乎翻倍；就连99元的单只基础款，也被炒至远超原价的水平，黄牛囤货、消费者跟风抢购，让潮玩彻底脱离了“娱乐消费”的范畴，沦为投机资金炒作的工具。</p><p>狂热之下，泡沫的破裂只是时间问题。随着投机资金陆续离场，消费者逐渐觉醒并拒绝为溢价买单，Labubu系列的热度急转直下，陷入全面遇冷的困境。</p><p>曾经一房难求的爆款产品，如今二手价格大幅回落：搪胶毛绒系列均价从峰值1478元跌至632元，跌幅超57%；99元单只款最低成交价仅82元，直接<span>跌破</span>官方原价。线上平台成交价持续走低，线下门店及海外平台则货源充足，再也没有了往日的抢购盛况，不少商家更是纷纷停收相关产品，曾经的“香饽饽”沦为“烫手山芋”。</p><p>潮玩市场的降温，直接传导至资本市场。作为行业龙头的泡泡玛特，股价在2025年遭遇重创，累计跌幅超40%，市值蒸发逾2000亿港元，机构资金减持、市场信心受挫，曾经被追捧的“潮玩概念股”光环不再。这一系列连锁反应，本质上是对潮玩行业虚假繁荣的纠偏——当投机取代消费、溢价取代价值，泡沫的破裂早已注定。</p><p>事实上，潮玩的核心价值从来不是投机炒作的载体，而是IP与消费者之间的情感共鸣。</p><p>Labubu系列的爆火，源于其IP形象的独特性与情感吸引力；而其遇冷，则是因为过度炒作稀释了IP价值，让产品脱离了消费本质。消费者最终意识到，潮玩本质上是一件消费品，而非能持续增值的投资品，盲目跟风、高价接盘只会得不偿失；投机资金的离场，更是让潮玩市场摆脱了畸形炒作的枷锁，回归到正常的消费逻辑。</p><p>Labubu系列的兴衰，为整个潮玩行业敲响了警钟。当前，潮玩行业正处于洗牌与重塑的关键时期，单纯依赖稀缺性炒作、盲目扩张产能的模式已难以为继。</p><p>对于企业而言，唯有深耕IP内容、强化情感连接，打造具有长期生命力的IP形象，才能留住消费者；唯有平衡供需关系、规范市场秩序，拒绝盲目扩产与恶意炒作，才能维护行业的健康发展；对于消费者而言，理性消费、坚守初心，不被溢价裹挟，才能真正享受潮玩带来的快乐。</p><p>潮玩泡沫的破裂，并非行业的终点，而是行业回归理性、实现高质量发展的起点。当炒作的热度褪去，留下的将是真正有价值的IP与产品。</p><p>未来，只有坚守消费品本质、深耕IP核心，潮玩行业才能摆脱短期波动的影响，实现长期可持续发展，真正走出属于自己的健康发展之路。</p><p><strong>NEXT</strong></p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n潮玩泡沫终破：Labubu遇冷，行业回归理性本质\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-25 11:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026022512222097a6f0d4&s=b><strong>经理人杂志</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2025年，泡泡玛特Labubu系列的命运转折，成为潮玩行业发展史上的一道鲜明分水岭。这个曾凭一己之力掀起抢购狂潮的顶流IP，从开售秒罄的巅峰急速坠入无人问津的冰点，不仅戳破了持续多年的潮玩投资泡沫，更迫使整个行业褪去炒作滤镜，重新回归消费品的核心本质，资本市场的剧烈震荡与消费市场的理性反转，共同为狂热的潮玩行业敲响了警钟。回顾Labubu系列的爆火时刻，其热度堪称现象级。作为泡泡玛特旗下的核心...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026022512222097a6f0d4&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SGXZ62798434.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0499858438.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","PMRTY":"Pop Mart International Group Limited","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK1224":"专卖店","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026022512222097a6f0d4&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2614771233","content_text":"2025年，泡泡玛特Labubu系列的命运转折，成为潮玩行业发展史上的一道鲜明分水岭。这个曾凭一己之力掀起抢购狂潮的顶流IP，从开售秒罄的巅峰急速坠入无人问津的冰点，不仅戳破了持续多年的潮玩投资泡沫，更迫使整个行业褪去炒作滤镜，重新回归消费品的核心本质，资本市场的剧烈震荡与消费市场的理性反转，共同为狂热的潮玩行业敲响了警钟。回顾Labubu系列的爆火时刻，其热度堪称现象级。作为泡泡玛特旗下的核心IP，该系列曾凭借独特的设计风格和盲盒玩法，俘获了大量消费者与投机者的目光，新品开售即秒罄成为常态，二手市场更是溢价惊人。数据显示，原价594元的搪胶毛绒系列，二手均价一度飙升至1478元，近乎翻倍；就连99元的单只基础款，也被炒至远超原价的水平，黄牛囤货、消费者跟风抢购，让潮玩彻底脱离了“娱乐消费”的范畴，沦为投机资金炒作的工具。狂热之下，泡沫的破裂只是时间问题。随着投机资金陆续离场，消费者逐渐觉醒并拒绝为溢价买单，Labubu系列的热度急转直下，陷入全面遇冷的困境。曾经一房难求的爆款产品，如今二手价格大幅回落：搪胶毛绒系列均价从峰值1478元跌至632元，跌幅超57%；99元单只款最低成交价仅82元，直接跌破官方原价。线上平台成交价持续走低，线下门店及海外平台则货源充足，再也没有了往日的抢购盛况，不少商家更是纷纷停收相关产品，曾经的“香饽饽”沦为“烫手山芋”。潮玩市场的降温，直接传导至资本市场。作为行业龙头的泡泡玛特，股价在2025年遭遇重创，累计跌幅超40%，市值蒸发逾2000亿港元，机构资金减持、市场信心受挫，曾经被追捧的“潮玩概念股”光环不再。这一系列连锁反应，本质上是对潮玩行业虚假繁荣的纠偏——当投机取代消费、溢价取代价值，泡沫的破裂早已注定。事实上，潮玩的核心价值从来不是投机炒作的载体，而是IP与消费者之间的情感共鸣。Labubu系列的爆火，源于其IP形象的独特性与情感吸引力；而其遇冷，则是因为过度炒作稀释了IP价值，让产品脱离了消费本质。消费者最终意识到，潮玩本质上是一件消费品，而非能持续增值的投资品，盲目跟风、高价接盘只会得不偿失；投机资金的离场，更是让潮玩市场摆脱了畸形炒作的枷锁，回归到正常的消费逻辑。Labubu系列的兴衰，为整个潮玩行业敲响了警钟。当前，潮玩行业正处于洗牌与重塑的关键时期，单纯依赖稀缺性炒作、盲目扩张产能的模式已难以为继。对于企业而言，唯有深耕IP内容、强化情感连接，打造具有长期生命力的IP形象，才能留住消费者；唯有平衡供需关系、规范市场秩序，拒绝盲目扩产与恶意炒作，才能维护行业的健康发展；对于消费者而言，理性消费、坚守初心，不被溢价裹挟，才能真正享受潮玩带来的快乐。潮玩泡沫的破裂，并非行业的终点，而是行业回归理性、实现高质量发展的起点。当炒作的热度褪去，留下的将是真正有价值的IP与产品。未来，只有坚守消费品本质、深耕IP核心，潮玩行业才能摆脱短期波动的影响，实现长期可持续发展，真正走出属于自己的健康发展之路。NEXT","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PMRTY":1.95,"09992":1.95}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":74,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":532046343491736,"gmtCreate":1770915096193,"gmtModify":1770915098033,"author":{"id":"3575672226475362","authorId":"3575672226475362","name":"四甲坝坝主","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed1872f351c3dee0d61a1a366951ef6","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575672226475362","idStr":"3575672226475362"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XAGUSD.FOREX\">$白银/美元(XAGUSD.FOREX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 春节最容易出流动性危机的时候，也是最佳的去杠杆时机。短期看空，看涨要等春节后看","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XAGUSD.FOREX\">$白银/美元(XAGUSD.FOREX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 春节最容易出流动性危机的时候，也是最佳的去杠杆时机。短期看空，看涨要等春节后看","text":"$白银/美元(XAGUSD.FOREX)$ 春节最容易出流动性危机的时候，也是最佳的去杠杆时机。短期看空，看涨要等春节后看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/532046343491736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":531157350724504,"gmtCreate":1770696171312,"gmtModify":1770696173519,"author":{"id":"3575672226475362","authorId":"3575672226475362","name":"四甲坝坝主","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed1872f351c3dee0d61a1a366951ef6","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575672226475362","idStr":"3575672226475362"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"泡泡玛特未来是全世界优秀ip的展示售卖平台","listText":"泡泡玛特未来是全世界优秀ip的展示售卖平台","text":"泡泡玛特未来是全世界优秀ip的展示售卖平台","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/531157350724504","repostId":"2610691900","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2610691900","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1770693610,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2610691900?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-10 11:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"年销4亿件！\"后Labubu时代\"，泡泡玛特的高增长能否持续？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2610691900","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"汇丰表示，“Labubu带来的超高速增长会褪去，但平台能力会延续”，并将2026年定义为“再定基”的一年。瑞银认为，销量数据有助于缓解市场对单一爆款依赖的担忧，同时新IP Twinkle在2026年初开局强劲，为增长接力提供观察窗口。汇丰将泡泡玛特目标价从392.5港元下调至354港元，瑞银维持326港元，两家机构均维持“买入”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>2月9日公告显示，2025年公司全IP、全品类产品全球销量超过4亿件，其中THE MONSTERS 全品类产品全球销量超过1亿件。</p>\n<p>泡泡玛特2025年经历了典型的“单一超级IP+品类突破”式放量，营收同比接近三倍扩张，核心推力来自Labubu全球出圈，以及毛绒玩具显著放大IP变现效率，最新的经营数据把市场关注点推向“爆款之后”。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>环球研究分析师Lina Yan在报告中判断，“Labubu带来的超高速增长会褪去，但平台能力会延续”，并将2026年定义为“再定基”的一年。瑞银认为，数据有助于缓解市场对单一爆款依赖的担忧，同时新IP Twinkle在2026年初开局强劲，为增长接力提供观察窗口。</strong></p>\n<p>汇丰将泡泡玛特目标价从392.5港元下调至354港元，瑞银维持326港元，两家机构均维持“买入”。在2月9日收盘价257.2港元附近计算，对应隐含上行空间分别约38%与26.7%，但共同的前提是，2025年的爆发式增长难以原样复刻。</p>\n<p>对投资者而言，关键变量正在从“抢购式加速”转向“常态零售扩张+新品节奏”。汇丰下调2026年收入与利润增速预测，指向会员复购强度回落与增速降档，但也强调估值已在一定程度上计入IP生命周期风险，后续更看重新品孵化与全球化落地的执行力。</p>\n<div>\n<h2>2025拆解：Labubu与毛绒“推翻重来”，但底盘并非空心</h2>\n</div>\n<p>汇丰将2025年高增长拆解为两根杠杆。按IP拆分，The Monsters（Labubu）收入同比约+582%，收入贡献被估算抬升至47%（此前约23%）。按品类拆分，毛绒玩具收入同比约+720%，贡献抬升至60%（此前约22%）。这使得泡泡玛特的增长更接近消费品意义上的爆款周期，即IP热度叠加新品类放量，带来更高频、更高客单、也更易传播的产品形态。</p>\n<p>但汇丰同样强调“剔除爆款后的底盘”。其估算口径下，剔除The Monsters后，<strong>2025年收入仍同比增长约106%，剔除毛绒后，收入仍同比增长约51%。这意味着，2025年的增量高度集中，但公司原有业务盘子并未停滞。</strong></p>\n<p>在中国内地，最容易被忽略的增量来源是复购会员ARPU。汇丰称，2025年内地收入增长中，复购会员（年购买次数&gt;2次）的ARPU提升贡献“接近一半”。结构数据指向“供给偏紧”阶段的强购买强度：2025年内地会员贡献销售占比约91%，重复购买占比约55.8%，重复购买人群贡献销售占比约83%。这种由紧缺驱动的斜率，决定了后续一旦供需错配缓解，增速下台阶几乎是逻辑必然。</p>\n<div>\n<h2>2026再定基：ARPU正常化，增长回到“扩张年”框架</h2>\n</div>\n<p><strong>汇丰对2026年的核心判断是，“rush-to-buy”效应退潮后，复购会员ARPU将正常化，从而把增长从爆发状态拉回零售扩张的常态轨道。</strong>基于这一变化，汇丰将2026年营收增速预测从30.6%下调至23.7%，净利润增速预测从29.1%下调至21.3%，并削减2026-2027年盈利预测11%-13%。目标价下调主要来自盈利预测下修，而非估值框架推翻，其DCF关键假设WACC 10%、永续增长率3%保持不变。</p>\n<p>在区域结构上，汇丰预计2026年PRC收入增速约13.0%，海外约35.7%。海外被视为对冲国内ARPU回落的核心缓冲垫，但逻辑也从“起量”走向“铺开”，更依赖线下点位执行：海外零售POS数量预计从2025年的218增至2026年的331。对市场而言，这意味着增长的可见度更取决于选址、供给匹配、爆品节奏与本地化运营等细节。</p>\n<p>风险也因此更偏“执行侧”。汇丰点名的扰动包括供应链跟不上需求、黄牛加价挤出真实消费者、股东配售带来短期股价压力、仿品影响品牌、与合作艺术家的独家授权续约风险，以及进入新业务/并购导致资本错配，另有竞争加剧与线下客流扰动等行业层面风险。</p>\n<div>\n<h2>估值与接力：新IP能否补上“后Labubu”增长缺口</h2>\n</div>\n<p>在估值层面，汇丰认为市场已在用估值压缩消化“Labubu生命周期风险”。其依据是，自2025年初以来，公司一年期前瞻EPS上升约394%，但基于一致预期的一年期前瞻PE较2025年平均水平回落约45%，较2025年峰值回落约65%。在这一背景下，汇丰更关注“平台能力”是否能持续孵化并全球化新IP，而非单纯押注爆款热度延长。</p>\n<p><strong>瑞银的“接力观察”集中在新品与海外互动。</strong>其指出，新推IP Twinkle在2026年初表现强劲，情人节款在天猫和抖音分别售出3万件和4.6万件以上，春节款毛绒玩具在天猫首发当日售出超过2万件。海外方面，Skull Panda x 小马宝莉联名系列在北美官网配送到家渠道售罄，Instagram预告获46万点赞。瑞银同时提示，美国等海外市场仍需加强消费者互动、本土IP与品牌建设，海外新员工比例较高、用户对多个IP的认知仍在培育。</p>\n<p>两家机构均将后续数据视为验证点。瑞银称，年报及2026年一季度销售数据将用于检验中国与海外市场，尤其是美国市场的环比表现。对于投资者而言，“后Labubu时代”的核心问题不在于2025是否<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">辉煌</a>，而在于2026起能否用新品<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>、海外点位扩张与更可持续的会员经营，接住从爆发到常态的增长切换。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>年销4亿件！\"后Labubu时代\"，泡泡玛特的高增长能否持续？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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class=\"title\">\n年销4亿件！\"后Labubu时代\"，泡泡玛特的高增长能否持续？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-10 11:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765358><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>泡泡玛特2月9日公告显示，2025年公司全IP、全品类产品全球销量超过4亿件，其中THE MONSTERS 全品类产品全球销量超过1亿件。\n泡泡玛特2025年经历了典型的“单一超级IP+品类突破”式放量，营收同比接近三倍扩张，核心推力来自Labubu全球出圈，以及毛绒玩具显著放大IP变现效率，最新的经营数据把市场关注点推向“爆款之后”。\n据追风交易台，汇丰环球研究分析师Lina Yan在报告中判断...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765358\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885447e000f5e02536cd166eeda13f45","relate_stocks":{"LU1770036033.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","09992":"泡泡玛特","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765358","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2610691900","content_text":"泡泡玛特2月9日公告显示，2025年公司全IP、全品类产品全球销量超过4亿件，其中THE MONSTERS 全品类产品全球销量超过1亿件。\n泡泡玛特2025年经历了典型的“单一超级IP+品类突破”式放量，营收同比接近三倍扩张，核心推力来自Labubu全球出圈，以及毛绒玩具显著放大IP变现效率，最新的经营数据把市场关注点推向“爆款之后”。\n据追风交易台，汇丰环球研究分析师Lina Yan在报告中判断，“Labubu带来的超高速增长会褪去，但平台能力会延续”，并将2026年定义为“再定基”的一年。瑞银认为，数据有助于缓解市场对单一爆款依赖的担忧，同时新IP Twinkle在2026年初开局强劲，为增长接力提供观察窗口。\n汇丰将泡泡玛特目标价从392.5港元下调至354港元，瑞银维持326港元，两家机构均维持“买入”。在2月9日收盘价257.2港元附近计算，对应隐含上行空间分别约38%与26.7%，但共同的前提是，2025年的爆发式增长难以原样复刻。\n对投资者而言，关键变量正在从“抢购式加速”转向“常态零售扩张+新品节奏”。汇丰下调2026年收入与利润增速预测，指向会员复购强度回落与增速降档，但也强调估值已在一定程度上计入IP生命周期风险，后续更看重新品孵化与全球化落地的执行力。\n\n2025拆解：Labubu与毛绒“推翻重来”，但底盘并非空心\n\n汇丰将2025年高增长拆解为两根杠杆。按IP拆分，The Monsters（Labubu）收入同比约+582%，收入贡献被估算抬升至47%（此前约23%）。按品类拆分，毛绒玩具收入同比约+720%，贡献抬升至60%（此前约22%）。这使得泡泡玛特的增长更接近消费品意义上的爆款周期，即IP热度叠加新品类放量，带来更高频、更高客单、也更易传播的产品形态。\n但汇丰同样强调“剔除爆款后的底盘”。其估算口径下，剔除The Monsters后，2025年收入仍同比增长约106%，剔除毛绒后，收入仍同比增长约51%。这意味着，2025年的增量高度集中，但公司原有业务盘子并未停滞。\n在中国内地，最容易被忽略的增量来源是复购会员ARPU。汇丰称，2025年内地收入增长中，复购会员（年购买次数>2次）的ARPU提升贡献“接近一半”。结构数据指向“供给偏紧”阶段的强购买强度：2025年内地会员贡献销售占比约91%，重复购买占比约55.8%，重复购买人群贡献销售占比约83%。这种由紧缺驱动的斜率，决定了后续一旦供需错配缓解，增速下台阶几乎是逻辑必然。\n\n2026再定基：ARPU正常化，增长回到“扩张年”框架\n\n汇丰对2026年的核心判断是，“rush-to-buy”效应退潮后，复购会员ARPU将正常化，从而把增长从爆发状态拉回零售扩张的常态轨道。基于这一变化，汇丰将2026年营收增速预测从30.6%下调至23.7%，净利润增速预测从29.1%下调至21.3%，并削减2026-2027年盈利预测11%-13%。目标价下调主要来自盈利预测下修，而非估值框架推翻，其DCF关键假设WACC 10%、永续增长率3%保持不变。\n在区域结构上，汇丰预计2026年PRC收入增速约13.0%，海外约35.7%。海外被视为对冲国内ARPU回落的核心缓冲垫，但逻辑也从“起量”走向“铺开”，更依赖线下点位执行：海外零售POS数量预计从2025年的218增至2026年的331。对市场而言，这意味着增长的可见度更取决于选址、供给匹配、爆品节奏与本地化运营等细节。\n风险也因此更偏“执行侧”。汇丰点名的扰动包括供应链跟不上需求、黄牛加价挤出真实消费者、股东配售带来短期股价压力、仿品影响品牌、与合作艺术家的独家授权续约风险，以及进入新业务/并购导致资本错配，另有竞争加剧与线下客流扰动等行业层面风险。\n\n估值与接力：新IP能否补上“后Labubu”增长缺口\n\n在估值层面，汇丰认为市场已在用估值压缩消化“Labubu生命周期风险”。其依据是，自2025年初以来，公司一年期前瞻EPS上升约394%，但基于一致预期的一年期前瞻PE较2025年平均水平回落约45%，较2025年峰值回落约65%。在这一背景下，汇丰更关注“平台能力”是否能持续孵化并全球化新IP，而非单纯押注爆款热度延长。\n瑞银的“接力观察”集中在新品与海外互动。其指出，新推IP Twinkle在2026年初表现强劲，情人节款在天猫和抖音分别售出3万件和4.6万件以上，春节款毛绒玩具在天猫首发当日售出超过2万件。海外方面，Skull Panda x 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