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trisnando

trisnando

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2021-06-22

Like and comment please

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-14

Guessing ipo at 420

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-15

$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$NET>FSLY

2021-03-02

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Feeling downz

2021-03-12

$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$LES GO

2021-03-11

To the moon

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-21

No inflation pls

Nomura Warns Of Market "Reversal Risk" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储讲话收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>

2021-06-16

Pls drop so i can buu

FOMC Preview: "It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote>

2021-04-05

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$LETS GO

2021-02-06

Thanks tiger for the profits

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pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167761946","repostId":"1133913488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133913488","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624283796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133913488?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储讲话收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133913488","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead......which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already s","content":"<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储的“鹰派惊喜”和吉姆·布拉德周五早上的“你认为这是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒”时刻引发市场烟花之后，许多市场参与者尖叫“政策错误”，野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特警告说<b>交易员现在需要为本周一些潜在的“言论逆转”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个令人震惊的十六（！）未来日历上的美联储发言人...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已经大幅高于亚洲重新开放的低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b>&nbsp;particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities,&nbsp;<i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i>&nbsp;(Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>McElligott警告说，<b>造成逆势逆转的风险可能会让许多人再次措手不及，因为从战术上讲，美联储任何后退的迹象都可能引发“通货再膨胀”的观点。</b>特别是如果美元从这里进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负值倾斜，UST曲线在上周令人眼花缭乱的清算/止损后再次“熊市陡峭”——这也可能引发美国股市先前“周期性价值超过长期增长”趋势的同时反弹，<i>上周，上述表达方式的票房大幅下降</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“通货再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；周期价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御价值-2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股市“久期”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息+1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility,&nbsp;<b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是美联储“不惜一切代价维持宽松的金融环境”这一不言而喻的“第三项任务”所取得的成就</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上发挥了作用，在“旧”央行中，美联储将相应地转向“鹰派”并开始收紧政策；但在“美联储看跌”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在将上述“紧缩”对经济放缓的负面影响提前，并产生“缩减恐慌”，造成市场波动，<b>最终迫使美联储让步——如果市场发生鹰派基调转变。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险是，美联储发言人非常活跃的日历中的一些人现在将表达“担忧”，即上周的点阵图和SEP将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，并阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可以传达这些预测的“条件”程度如何——</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场因美联储“鹰派转向”而对“金融状况收紧”的部分拉动，这抵消了他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力！</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们以前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈膝”，风险资产的波动率飙升和强制去杠杆/对冲就会被“丰富的波动率”逆转，然后被出售，这在标准的滞后方式中将意味着，随着预期的“美联储回溯”之后，随着波动率被粉碎，跟踪rVol然后重置较低，动态对冲（空头）的大量回补和/或风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将导致市场恢复上涨<b><i>-“向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics,&nbsp;<b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex&nbsp;</b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步促进这些潜在的“弹弓”（向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超大的Op-Ex之后，我们现在本质上看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前ES为4167，这是“Delta中性vs现货”水平）</b><b><i>（尽管值得注意的是，我们现在处于“短伽马vs现货”区域，位于4167 last vs 4237“伽马中性”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd&nbsp;</b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b>&nbsp;this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>在VRP人群将增量“鹰派美联储意外”成交量飙升出售给交易商的情况下</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回退”的迹象），</i></b><b>这种波动性和伽马的冲动供应将再次使市场更加稳定、隔离，因为交易商“做多伽马”意味着对冲流动将进一步抑制市场波动的可能性</b>-因此，“销量销售”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储讲话收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储讲话收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储的“鹰派惊喜”和吉姆·布拉德周五早上的“你认为这是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒”时刻引发市场烟花之后，许多市场参与者尖叫“政策错误”，野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特警告说<b>交易员现在需要为本周一些潜在的“言论逆转”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个令人震惊的十六（！）未来日历上的美联储发言人...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已经大幅高于亚洲重新开放的低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b>&nbsp;particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities,&nbsp;<i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i>&nbsp;(Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>McElligott警告说，<b>造成逆势逆转的风险可能会让许多人再次措手不及，因为从战术上讲，美联储任何后退的迹象都可能引发“通货再膨胀”的观点。</b>特别是如果美元从这里进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负值倾斜，UST曲线在上周令人眼花缭乱的清算/止损后再次“熊市陡峭”——这也可能引发美国股市先前“周期性价值超过长期增长”趋势的同时反弹，<i>上周，上述表达方式的票房大幅下降</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“通货再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；周期价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御价值-2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股市“久期”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息+1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility,&nbsp;<b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是美联储“不惜一切代价维持宽松的金融环境”这一不言而喻的“第三项任务”所取得的成就</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上发挥了作用，在“旧”央行中，美联储将相应地转向“鹰派”并开始收紧政策；但在“美联储看跌”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在将上述“紧缩”对经济放缓的负面影响提前，并产生“缩减恐慌”，造成市场波动，<b>最终迫使美联储让步——如果市场发生鹰派基调转变。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险是，美联储发言人非常活跃的日历中的一些人现在将表达“担忧”，即上周的点阵图和SEP将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，并阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可以传达这些预测的“条件”程度如何——</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场因美联储“鹰派转向”而对“金融状况收紧”的部分拉动，这抵消了他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力！</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们以前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈膝”，风险资产的波动率飙升和强制去杠杆/对冲就会被“丰富的波动率”逆转，然后被出售，这在标准的滞后方式中将意味着，随着预期的“美联储回溯”之后，随着波动率被粉碎，跟踪rVol然后重置较低，动态对冲（空头）的大量回补和/或风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将导致市场恢复上涨<b><i>-“向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics,&nbsp;<b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex&nbsp;</b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步促进这些潜在的“弹弓”（向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超大的Op-Ex之后，我们现在本质上看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前ES为4167，这是“Delta中性vs现货”水平）</b><b><i>（尽管值得注意的是，我们现在处于“短伽马vs现货”区域，位于4167 last vs 4237“伽马中性”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd&nbsp;</b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b>&nbsp;this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>在VRP人群将增量“鹰派美联储意外”成交量飙升出售给交易商的情况下</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回退”的迹象），</i></b><b>这种波动性和伽马的冲动供应将再次使市场更加稳定、隔离，因为交易商“做多伽马”意味着对冲流动将进一步抑制市场波动的可能性</b>-因此，“销量销售”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133913488","content_text":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...\n...which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows...\nWhich McElligott warns,risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,” particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)\n\nEquities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%\nEquities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%\n\nThis is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought-an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.\nIn this case,the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!\nAnd as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.\nTo further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex (although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).\n\nAnd in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd (particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk), this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167763978,"gmtCreate":1624285135695,"gmtModify":1631893474919,"author":{"id":"3575507353908450","authorId":"3575507353908450","name":"trisnando","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97932ca83eff2802eeb59122aeca88e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575507353908450","idStr":"3575507353908450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167763978","repostId":"1133913488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133913488","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624283796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133913488?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储讲话收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133913488","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead......which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already s","content":"<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储的“鹰派惊喜”和吉姆·布拉德周五早上的“你认为这是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒”时刻引发市场烟花之后，许多市场参与者尖叫“政策错误”，野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特警告说<b>交易员现在需要为本周一些潜在的“言论逆转”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个令人震惊的十六（！）未来日历上的美联储发言人...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已经大幅高于亚洲重新开放的低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b>&nbsp;particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities,&nbsp;<i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i>&nbsp;(Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>McElligott警告说，<b>造成逆势逆转的风险可能会让许多人再次措手不及，因为从战术上讲，美联储任何后退的迹象都可能引发“通货再膨胀”的观点。</b>特别是如果美元从这里进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负值倾斜，UST曲线在上周令人眼花缭乱的清算/止损后再次“熊市陡峭”——这也可能引发美国股市先前“周期性价值超过长期增长”趋势的同时反弹，<i>上周，上述表达方式的票房大幅下降</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“通货再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；周期价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御价值-2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股市“久期”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息+1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility,&nbsp;<b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是美联储“不惜一切代价维持宽松的金融环境”这一不言而喻的“第三项任务”所取得的成就</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上发挥了作用，在“旧”央行中，美联储将相应地转向“鹰派”并开始收紧政策；但在“美联储看跌”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在将上述“紧缩”对经济放缓的负面影响提前，并产生“缩减恐慌”，造成市场波动，<b>最终迫使美联储让步——如果市场发生鹰派基调转变。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险是，美联储发言人非常活跃的日历中的一些人现在将表达“担忧”，即上周的点阵图和SEP将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，并阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可以传达这些预测的“条件”程度如何——</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场因美联储“鹰派转向”而对“金融状况收紧”的部分拉动，这抵消了他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力！</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们以前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈膝”，风险资产的波动率飙升和强制去杠杆/对冲就会被“丰富的波动率”逆转，然后被出售，这在标准的滞后方式中将意味着，随着预期的“美联储回溯”之后，随着波动率被粉碎，跟踪rVol然后重置较低，动态对冲（空头）的大量回补和/或风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将导致市场恢复上涨<b><i>-“向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics,&nbsp;<b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex&nbsp;</b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步促进这些潜在的“弹弓”（向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超大的Op-Ex之后，我们现在本质上看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前ES为4167，这是“Delta中性vs现货”水平）</b><b><i>（尽管值得注意的是，我们现在处于“短伽马vs现货”区域，位于4167 last vs 4237“伽马中性”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd&nbsp;</b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b>&nbsp;this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>在VRP人群将增量“鹰派美联储意外”成交量飙升出售给交易商的情况下</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回退”的迹象），</i></b><b>这种波动性和伽马的冲动供应将再次使市场更加稳定、隔离，因为交易商“做多伽马”意味着对冲流动将进一步抑制市场波动的可能性</b>-因此，“销量销售”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储讲话收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储的“鹰派惊喜”和吉姆·布拉德周五早上的“你认为这是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒”时刻引发市场烟花之后，许多市场参与者尖叫“政策错误”，野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特警告说<b>交易员现在需要为本周一些潜在的“言论逆转”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个令人震惊的十六（！）未来日历上的美联储发言人...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已经大幅高于亚洲重新开放的低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b>&nbsp;particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities,&nbsp;<i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i>&nbsp;(Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>McElligott警告说，<b>造成逆势逆转的风险可能会让许多人再次措手不及，因为从战术上讲，美联储任何后退的迹象都可能引发“通货再膨胀”的观点。</b>特别是如果美元从这里进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负值倾斜，UST曲线在上周令人眼花缭乱的清算/止损后再次“熊市陡峭”——这也可能引发美国股市先前“周期性价值超过长期增长”趋势的同时反弹，<i>上周，上述表达方式的票房大幅下降</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“通货再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；周期价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御价值-2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股市“久期”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息+1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility,&nbsp;<b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是美联储“不惜一切代价维持宽松的金融环境”这一不言而喻的“第三项任务”所取得的成就</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上发挥了作用，在“旧”央行中，美联储将相应地转向“鹰派”并开始收紧政策；但在“美联储看跌”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在将上述“紧缩”对经济放缓的负面影响提前，并产生“缩减恐慌”，造成市场波动，<b>最终迫使美联储让步——如果市场发生鹰派基调转变。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险是，美联储发言人非常活跃的日历中的一些人现在将表达“担忧”，即上周的点阵图和SEP将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，并阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可以传达这些预测的“条件”程度如何——</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场因美联储“鹰派转向”而对“金融状况收紧”的部分拉动，这抵消了他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力！</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们以前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈膝”，风险资产的波动率飙升和强制去杠杆/对冲就会被“丰富的波动率”逆转，然后被出售，这在标准的滞后方式中将意味着，随着预期的“美联储回溯”之后，随着波动率被粉碎，跟踪rVol然后重置较低，动态对冲（空头）的大量回补和/或风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将导致市场恢复上涨<b><i>-“向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics,&nbsp;<b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex&nbsp;</b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步促进这些潜在的“弹弓”（向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超大的Op-Ex之后，我们现在本质上看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前ES为4167，这是“Delta中性vs现货”水平）</b><b><i>（尽管值得注意的是，我们现在处于“短伽马vs现货”区域，位于4167 last vs 4237“伽马中性”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd&nbsp;</b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b>&nbsp;this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>在VRP人群将增量“鹰派美联储意外”成交量飙升出售给交易商的情况下</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回退”的迹象），</i></b><b>这种波动性和伽马的冲动供应将再次使市场更加稳定、隔离，因为交易商“做多伽马”意味着对冲流动将进一步抑制市场波动的可能性</b>-因此，“销量销售”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133913488","content_text":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...\n...which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows...\nWhich McElligott warns,risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,” particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)\n\nEquities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%\nEquities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%\n\nThis is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought-an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.\nIn this case,the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!\nAnd as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.\nTo further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex (although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).\n\nAnd in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd (particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk), this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160615208,"gmtCreate":1623794753304,"gmtModify":1631893474921,"author":{"id":"3575507353908450","authorId":"3575507353908450","name":"trisnando","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97932ca83eff2802eeb59122aeca88e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575507353908450","idStr":"3575507353908450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fatty","listText":"Fatty","text":"Fatty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160615208","repostId":"1147269544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147269544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770166,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147269544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Michael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>“大空头”迈克尔·伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫，“高出两个数量级”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147269544","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he p","content":"<p>Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically its<b>hyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes next</b>in a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that<b>:</b></p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，“大空头”迈克尔·伯里证实了美国银行最大的担忧，因为他谈到了魏玛德国的主题，特别是其<b>恶性通货膨胀，作为下一步的蓝图</b>在一篇冗长的推特风暴中，大量抄袭了帕森的开创性工作，警告说<b>：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery</b>. Trillions more stimulus &amp; re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>“美国政府正在以其带有MMT色彩的政策引发通胀。强劲的债务/GDP、M2增加，而零售销售、PMI第五阶段复苏</b>.随着员工和供应链成本飙升，数万亿美元的刺激措施和重新开放以提振需求。”</blockquote></p><p> #ParadigmShift</p><p><blockquote>#范式转变</blockquote></p><p> \"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀在成熟阶段的生活是一个悖论，它有自己明确无误的特征。一个是巨大的财富，至少是那些受到繁荣青睐的人。许多巨大的财富在一夜之间涌现出来……城市里有一群漫无目的、肆意妄为的年轻人。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.</p><p><blockquote>“德国物价平稳，商业和股市都很繁荣。马克对美元和其他货币的汇率实际上一度上升，马克在通货膨胀前夕一时成为世界上最坚挺的货币”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“与财富并存的是贫困地区。更多的人留在轻松赚钱的外围，看进去却进不去。犯罪率飙升。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“当时的记录表明，普通人的士气逐渐低落，加上他们对无明显目的的极快节奏感到厌倦，他们害怕看到自己岌岌可危的地位下滑，而其他人却变得如此明显地富有。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"</p><p><blockquote>“几乎任何一种企业都能赚钱。企业失败和破产的情况变得很少了。繁荣中止了正常的自然选择过程，否则不必要和无效的东西就会被剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“单是投机，虽然没有增加德国的财富，但却成了德国最大的活动之一。加入快速赚钱的热潮几乎感染了所有阶层……从电梯操作员到现在，每个人都在玩市场。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #<i>robinhooddown</i></p><p><blockquote>“柏林证券交易所的证券交易量变得如此之高，以至于金融业无法跟上文书工作的步伐……交易所不得不每周关闭几天来处理积压的交易。”#<i>罗宾汉</i></blockquote></p><p> \"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single&nbsp; newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"</p><p><blockquote>“1922年夏天世界上存在的所有马克，到1923年11月还不够买一份报纸或一张电车车票。这是崩溃的壮观之处，但货币财富的大部分真正损失在更早的时候就已经遭受了。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.<b>Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“这些年来，这个结构一直在悄悄地为打击做好准备。<b>德国的#通货膨胀周期不是一年，而是九年，其中八年是酝酿，只有一年是崩溃。”</b></blockquote></p><p> His punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"<b>2010-2021: Gestation</b>\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"</p><p><blockquote>他的笑点：以上是“写于1974年回复：1914-1923”，然后做出不祥的推断<b>2010-2021年：妊娠</b>“当美元可能从天而降时...管理团队变得富有创造力，最终承担更多风险..向投资者支付债务融资股息或投资高风险增长机会无疑击败了节俭心态。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c531b21050b42425510a30125935555e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\">And, as if reading from the same playbook,<b>Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"</b>and if Jay Powell</p><p><blockquote>而且，就像是在读同一本剧本，<b>保罗·都铎·琼斯昨天警告说，事情“太疯狂了”</b>如果杰伊·鲍威尔</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"</b></i>  All of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“对我来说，通货膨胀是暂时的……这种想法并不符合我看待世界的方式。”</b></i>所有这些导致了伯里今天早上的最新推文警告...</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.</b></i>#FlyingPigs360\"  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afafeb68134e031ca871659bd8dbc595\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"261\">In other words:<i><b>\"Brace!\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“人们总是问我市场上发生了什么。这很简单。有史以来最大的投机泡沫。两个数量级。</b></i>#FlyingPigs360”换句话说：<i><b>“撑住！”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> So what are you going to do about it?</p><p><blockquote>那你打算怎么办？</blockquote></p><p> Tudor Jones had some simple advice: \"<b>buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>都铎·琼斯有一些简单的建议：“<b>购买大宗商品、购买加密货币、购买黄金。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Michael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>“大空头”迈克尔·伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫，“高出两个数量级”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMichael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>“大空头”迈克尔·伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫，“高出两个数量级”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically its<b>hyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes next</b>in a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that<b>:</b></p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，“大空头”迈克尔·伯里证实了美国银行最大的担忧，因为他谈到了魏玛德国的主题，特别是其<b>恶性通货膨胀，作为下一步的蓝图</b>在一篇冗长的推特风暴中，大量抄袭了帕森的开创性工作，警告说<b>：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery</b>. Trillions more stimulus &amp; re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>“美国政府正在以其带有MMT色彩的政策引发通胀。强劲的债务/GDP、M2增加，而零售销售、PMI第五阶段复苏</b>.随着员工和供应链成本飙升，数万亿美元的刺激措施和重新开放以提振需求。”</blockquote></p><p> #ParadigmShift</p><p><blockquote>#范式转变</blockquote></p><p> \"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀在成熟阶段的生活是一个悖论，它有自己明确无误的特征。一个是巨大的财富，至少是那些受到繁荣青睐的人。许多巨大的财富在一夜之间涌现出来……城市里有一群漫无目的、肆意妄为的年轻人。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.</p><p><blockquote>“德国物价平稳，商业和股市都很繁荣。马克对美元和其他货币的汇率实际上一度上升，马克在通货膨胀前夕一时成为世界上最坚挺的货币”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“与财富并存的是贫困地区。更多的人留在轻松赚钱的外围，看进去却进不去。犯罪率飙升。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“当时的记录表明，普通人的士气逐渐低落，加上他们对无明显目的的极快节奏感到厌倦，他们害怕看到自己岌岌可危的地位下滑，而其他人却变得如此明显地富有。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"</p><p><blockquote>“几乎任何一种企业都能赚钱。企业失败和破产的情况变得很少了。繁荣中止了正常的自然选择过程，否则不必要和无效的东西就会被剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“单是投机，虽然没有增加德国的财富，但却成了德国最大的活动之一。加入快速赚钱的热潮几乎感染了所有阶层……从电梯操作员到现在，每个人都在玩市场。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #<i>robinhooddown</i></p><p><blockquote>“柏林证券交易所的证券交易量变得如此之高，以至于金融业无法跟上文书工作的步伐……交易所不得不每周关闭几天来处理积压的交易。”#<i>罗宾汉</i></blockquote></p><p> \"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single&nbsp; newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"</p><p><blockquote>“1922年夏天世界上存在的所有马克，到1923年11月还不够买一份报纸或一张电车车票。这是崩溃的壮观之处，但货币财富的大部分真正损失在更早的时候就已经遭受了。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.<b>Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“这些年来，这个结构一直在悄悄地为打击做好准备。<b>德国的#通货膨胀周期不是一年，而是九年，其中八年是酝酿，只有一年是崩溃。”</b></blockquote></p><p> His punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"<b>2010-2021: Gestation</b>\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"</p><p><blockquote>他的笑点：以上是“写于1974年回复：1914-1923”，然后做出不祥的推断<b>2010-2021年：妊娠</b>“当美元可能从天而降时...管理团队变得富有创造力，最终承担更多风险..向投资者支付债务融资股息或投资高风险增长机会无疑击败了节俭心态。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c531b21050b42425510a30125935555e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\">And, as if reading from the same playbook,<b>Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"</b>and if Jay Powell</p><p><blockquote>而且，就像是在读同一本剧本，<b>保罗·都铎·琼斯昨天警告说，事情“太疯狂了”</b>如果杰伊·鲍威尔</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"</b></i>  All of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“对我来说，通货膨胀是暂时的……这种想法并不符合我看待世界的方式。”</b></i>所有这些导致了伯里今天早上的最新推文警告...</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.</b></i>#FlyingPigs360\"  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afafeb68134e031ca871659bd8dbc595\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"261\">In other words:<i><b>\"Brace!\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“人们总是问我市场上发生了什么。这很简单。有史以来最大的投机泡沫。两个数量级。</b></i>#FlyingPigs360”换句话说：<i><b>“撑住！”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> So what are you going to do about it?</p><p><blockquote>那你打算怎么办？</blockquote></p><p> Tudor Jones had some simple advice: \"<b>buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>都铎·琼斯有一些简单的建议：“<b>购买大宗商品、购买加密货币、购买黄金。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-big-short-burry-greatest-bubble-all-time-all-things-two-orders-magnitude\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-big-short-burry-greatest-bubble-all-time-all-things-two-orders-magnitude","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147269544","content_text":"Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically itshyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes nextin a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that:\n\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus & re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"\n#ParadigmShift\n\"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"\n\"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.\n\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"\n\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"\n\"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"\n\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"\n\"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #robinhooddown\n\"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single  newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"\n\"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"\nHis punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"2010-2021: Gestation\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"\nAnd, as if reading from the same playbook,Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"and if Jay Powell\n\n“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"\n\nAll of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...\n\n\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.#FlyingPigs360\"\n\nIn other words:\"Brace!\"\nSo what are you going to do about it?\nTudor Jones had some simple advice: \"buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160615664,"gmtCreate":1623794738958,"gmtModify":1631893474923,"author":{"id":"3575507353908450","authorId":"3575507353908450","name":"trisnando","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97932ca83eff2802eeb59122aeca88e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575507353908450","idStr":"3575507353908450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls drop so i can buu","listText":"Pls drop so i can buu","text":"Pls drop so i can buu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160615664","repostId":"1187337744","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187337744","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770439,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187337744?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187337744","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","content":"<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>本周有一个FOMC会议，我们预计周三下午2:00会有一份政策声明。许多评论人士称这次FOMC会议是近年来“最重要的”会议。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Big picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>大局…美联储移动了球门柱吗？</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Let's look at some numbers.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看一些数字。</blockquote></p><p> Monthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -<b>these are real scary when they're annualized</b>.</p><p><blockquote>月度通胀：工资增长+.5%，PCE+.7%，PPI+.6%，CPI+.7%-<b>当它们按年计算时，真的很可怕</b>.</blockquote></p><p> GDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.</p><p><blockquote>在下一次报告中，国内生产总值预计为6.4%，失业率预计为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> With these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"<b>all in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>有了这些数字，美国货币仍然“<b>全押。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Overnight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.</p><p><blockquote>隔夜利率为0%，量化宽松每月投入1200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最重要的是，随着经济继续重新开放，将会有更多刺激措施。</b></blockquote></p><p> In my book, this economic situation calls for attention.</p><p><blockquote>在我的书中，这种经济形势引起了评级的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>It's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>就像全速行驶的泰坦尼克号。在雾中。在晚上。</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.</p><p><blockquote>也许放松油门是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>本周有一个FOMC会议，我们预计周三下午2:00会有一份政策声明。许多评论人士称这次FOMC会议是近年来“最重要的”会议。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Big picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>大局…美联储移动了球门柱吗？</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Let's look at some numbers.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看一些数字。</blockquote></p><p> Monthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -<b>these are real scary when they're annualized</b>.</p><p><blockquote>月度通胀：工资增长+.5%，PCE+.7%，PPI+.6%，CPI+.7%-<b>当它们按年计算时，真的很可怕</b>.</blockquote></p><p> GDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.</p><p><blockquote>在下一次报告中，国内生产总值预计为6.4%，失业率预计为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> With these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"<b>all in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>有了这些数字，美国货币仍然“<b>全押。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Overnight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.</p><p><blockquote>隔夜利率为0%，量化宽松每月投入1200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最重要的是，随着经济继续重新开放，将会有更多刺激措施。</b></blockquote></p><p> In my book, this economic situation calls for attention.</p><p><blockquote>在我的书中，这种经济形势引起了评级的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>It's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>就像全速行驶的泰坦尼克号。在雾中。在晚上。</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.</p><p><blockquote>也许放松油门是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187337744","content_text":"There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.\nBig picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?\nLet's look at some numbers.\nMonthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -these are real scary when they're annualized.\nGDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.\nWith these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"all in.\"\nOvernight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.\nOn top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.\nIn my book, this economic situation calls for attention.\nIt's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.\nPerhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160612733,"gmtCreate":1623794716522,"gmtModify":1631893474926,"author":{"id":"3575507353908450","authorId":"3575507353908450","name":"trisnando","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97932ca83eff2802eeb59122aeca88e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575507353908450","idStr":"3575507353908450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Spam","listText":"Spam","text":"Spam","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160612733","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187855064,"gmtCreate":1623750079658,"gmtModify":1631893474927,"author":{"id":"3575507353908450","authorId":"3575507353908450","name":"trisnando","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97932ca83eff2802eeb59122aeca88e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575507353908450","idStr":"3575507353908450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pins over snap","listText":"Pins over snap","text":"Pins over snap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187855064","repostId":"2143784949","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187852193,"gmtCreate":1623750058312,"gmtModify":1631893474931,"author":{"id":"3575507353908450","authorId":"3575507353908450","name":"trisnando","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97932ca83eff2802eeb59122aeca88e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575507353908450","idStr":"3575507353908450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Emirates good","listText":"Emirates good","text":"Emirates good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187852193","repostId":"2143377637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187856054,"gmtCreate":1623750037978,"gmtModify":1631893474934,"author":{"id":"3575507353908450","authorId":"3575507353908450","name":"trisnando","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97932ca83eff2802eeb59122aeca88e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575507353908450","idStr":"3575507353908450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Banks overated","listText":"Banks overated","text":"Banks overated","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187856054","repostId":"1183190766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183190766","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623740790,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183190766?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 15:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Big-Tech & Bitcoin Pumped As Banks, Bonds, & Bullion Dumped<blockquote>随着银行、债券和金条的抛售，大型科技公司和比特币股价上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183190766","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Big-tech was bid as soon as the cash market opened and both Small Caps (Russell 2000) and Big-Caps (","content":"<p>Big-tech was bid as soon as the cash market opened and both Small Caps (Russell 2000) and Big-Caps (Dow Industrials) were dumped with the S&amp;P under water most of the day until the late day panic-bid hit as the<b>gamma-meltup struck</b>...</p><p><blockquote>现货市场一开盘，大型科技股就被竞标，小盘股（罗素2000指数）和大盘股（道指工业指数）都被抛售，标准普尔指数全天大部分时间都处于水下，直到尾盘恐慌性竞标袭来。<b>伽马熔化撞击</b>...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b2e9a8b272b493af999d0ceae800b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"293\">That's a record close for the S&amp;P and Nasdaq thanks to this utterly ridiculous meltup...</p><p><blockquote>由于这种完全荒谬的融合，这是标准普尔和纳斯达克创纪录的收盘价...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8111401f1c57064e42f7db7836fc08f4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"283\">The Nasdaq's outperformance pushed it to its highest relative to The Dow since April...</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克的优异表现使其相对于道琼斯指数升至4月份以来的最高水平...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58a5974b095ffdd321cc0542d8e79f9c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Lordstown Motors was clubbed like a baby seal today as its CEO/CFO abandoned ship...</p><p><blockquote>洛兹敦汽车公司今天像小海豹一样被打了一顿，因为它的首席执行官/首席财务官弃船了...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25e0168b578ceffd190a198be1dc12fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\">Retail traders were back buying today...</p><p><blockquote>散户交易者今天又开始买入...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23530164a0be04b223851688d160207d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Elon Musk's ability to influence crypto is as evident as ever as he tweeted that he is not full of FUD and bitcoin ripped over 10% higher (helped by PTJ's positive perspective on crypto in an inflationary environment)...</p><p><blockquote>Elon Musk影响加密货币的能力一如既往地明显，他在推特上表示，他并不充满FUD，比特币股价上涨了10%以上（得益于PTJ在通胀环境下对加密货币的积极看法）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08afe4b38b0f2ae3f7156be3ebfd3b2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> JPM's Dimon spooked bank stocks even further - despite rising yields today...</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通的戴蒙进一步吓坏了银行股——尽管今天收益率上升……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e0c996017633d636ae90deef9014c1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Uranium/Nuclear-related stocks tumbled on the China Nuke emissions headlines...</p><p><blockquote>铀/核相关股票因中国核排放头条而暴跌...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a356aabbf1d4f837b7ba2bce85cc222\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> VIX jumped back above 17 intraday...</p><p><blockquote>VIX盘中跳回17上方...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e43410dc971e3e8776003333e0e28f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"283\"><b>S&amp;P 500 Realized vol has tumbled to its lowest since Nov 2019...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500意识到vol已跌至2019年11月以来的最低水平...</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01d778bf240b8823a5bb1e6c028dd3ef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"292\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Will The Fed's \"most important meeting in years\" this week get it moving?</p><p><blockquote>美联储本周的“多年来最重要的会议”会推动这一进程吗？</blockquote></p><p> Treasuries were sold today, erasing more of the gains from Thursday's CPI malarkey. The short-end yield rose 1-2bps, the long-end yields rose 4-5bps...</p><p><blockquote>今天美国国债遭到抛售，抹去了周四CPI说大话带来的更多涨幅。短端收益率上升1-2bps，长端收益率上升4-5bps...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef5c4ac58ce44530cd76f5bcee30b4c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> We note that 10Y yields hit 1.50% and the selloff stalled...</p><p><blockquote>我们注意到10年期国债收益率触及1.50%，抛售陷入停滞……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b856ca9fe863397f4654ab0fe9c498\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Amid all the chatter on inflation, breakevens went nowhere at all...</p><p><blockquote>在所有关于通货膨胀的讨论中，盈亏平衡根本没有任何进展……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0c3a45693e92514889b7f5996325660\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> The Dollar trod water after spiking Friday up to fill the payrolls gap down...</p><p><blockquote>美元在周五飙升以填补就业缺口后下跌...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5878dae244b0a9c90c95c121c6e18ec1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Gold ended the day lower despite the dollar going nowhere...</p><p><blockquote>尽管美元毫无进展，但黄金收盘走低...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f17e358c769f54cac481cec61ed19b7f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"283\">Oil prices rollercoasted on the day but ended unchanged with WTI pushing up near $71.80 at its highs...</p><p><blockquote>油价当天大幅上涨，但收盘持平，WTI升至71.80美元附近的高点...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c8f08f012d23ff95f167708c2598f7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"282\">Finally, if you're wondering why people are buying USTs again... here's one reason...<b>5Y greek debt is now trading at a negative yield (yes, really)</b>... so which would you rather own 5Y UST at 75bps or 5Y GGB at -0.4bps!?</p><p><blockquote>最后，如果你想知道为什么人们再次购买UST...这里有一个原因...<b>5年期希腊债务目前收益率为负（是的，确实如此）</b>...那么，您更愿意以75个基点持有5年期UST还是以-0.4个基点持有5年期GGB！？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89cc32e484870131a463b81b2307f870\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig-Tech & Bitcoin Pumped As Banks, Bonds, & Bullion Dumped<blockquote>随着银行、债券和金条的抛售，大型科技公司和比特币股价上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 15:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Big-tech was bid as soon as the cash market opened and both Small Caps (Russell 2000) and Big-Caps (Dow Industrials) were dumped with the S&amp;P under water most of the day until the late day panic-bid hit as the<b>gamma-meltup struck</b>...</p><p><blockquote>现货市场一开盘，大型科技股就被竞标，小盘股（罗素2000指数）和大盘股（道指工业指数）都被抛售，标准普尔指数全天大部分时间都处于水下，直到尾盘恐慌性竞标袭来。<b>伽马熔化撞击</b>...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b2e9a8b272b493af999d0ceae800b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"293\">That's a record close for the S&amp;P and Nasdaq thanks to this utterly ridiculous meltup...</p><p><blockquote>由于这种完全荒谬的融合，这是标准普尔和纳斯达克创纪录的收盘价...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8111401f1c57064e42f7db7836fc08f4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"283\">The Nasdaq's outperformance pushed it to its highest relative to The Dow since April...</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克的优异表现使其相对于道琼斯指数升至4月份以来的最高水平...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58a5974b095ffdd321cc0542d8e79f9c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Lordstown Motors was clubbed like a baby seal today as its CEO/CFO abandoned ship...</p><p><blockquote>洛兹敦汽车公司今天像小海豹一样被打了一顿，因为它的首席执行官/首席财务官弃船了...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25e0168b578ceffd190a198be1dc12fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\">Retail traders were back buying today...</p><p><blockquote>散户交易者今天又开始买入...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23530164a0be04b223851688d160207d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Elon Musk's ability to influence crypto is as evident as ever as he tweeted that he is not full of FUD and bitcoin ripped over 10% higher (helped by PTJ's positive perspective on crypto in an inflationary environment)...</p><p><blockquote>Elon Musk影响加密货币的能力一如既往地明显，他在推特上表示，他并不充满FUD，比特币股价上涨了10%以上（得益于PTJ在通胀环境下对加密货币的积极看法）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08afe4b38b0f2ae3f7156be3ebfd3b2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> JPM's Dimon spooked bank stocks even further - despite rising yields today...</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通的戴蒙进一步吓坏了银行股——尽管今天收益率上升……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e0c996017633d636ae90deef9014c1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Uranium/Nuclear-related stocks tumbled on the China Nuke emissions headlines...</p><p><blockquote>铀/核相关股票因中国核排放头条而暴跌...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a356aabbf1d4f837b7ba2bce85cc222\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> VIX jumped back above 17 intraday...</p><p><blockquote>VIX盘中跳回17上方...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e43410dc971e3e8776003333e0e28f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"283\"><b>S&amp;P 500 Realized vol has tumbled to its lowest since Nov 2019...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500意识到vol已跌至2019年11月以来的最低水平...</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01d778bf240b8823a5bb1e6c028dd3ef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"292\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Will The Fed's \"most important meeting in years\" this week get it moving?</p><p><blockquote>美联储本周的“多年来最重要的会议”会推动这一进程吗？</blockquote></p><p> Treasuries were sold today, erasing more of the gains from Thursday's CPI malarkey. The short-end yield rose 1-2bps, the long-end yields rose 4-5bps...</p><p><blockquote>今天美国国债遭到抛售，抹去了周四CPI说大话带来的更多涨幅。短端收益率上升1-2bps，长端收益率上升4-5bps...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef5c4ac58ce44530cd76f5bcee30b4c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> We note that 10Y yields hit 1.50% and the selloff stalled...</p><p><blockquote>我们注意到10年期国债收益率触及1.50%，抛售陷入停滞……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b856ca9fe863397f4654ab0fe9c498\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Amid all the chatter on inflation, breakevens went nowhere at all...</p><p><blockquote>在所有关于通货膨胀的讨论中，盈亏平衡根本没有任何进展……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0c3a45693e92514889b7f5996325660\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> The Dollar trod water after spiking Friday up to fill the payrolls gap down...</p><p><blockquote>美元在周五飙升以填补就业缺口后下跌...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5878dae244b0a9c90c95c121c6e18ec1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Gold ended the day lower despite the dollar going nowhere...</p><p><blockquote>尽管美元毫无进展，但黄金收盘走低...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f17e358c769f54cac481cec61ed19b7f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"283\">Oil prices rollercoasted on the day but ended unchanged with WTI pushing up near $71.80 at its highs...</p><p><blockquote>油价当天大幅上涨，但收盘持平，WTI升至71.80美元附近的高点...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c8f08f012d23ff95f167708c2598f7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"282\">Finally, if you're wondering why people are buying USTs again... here's one reason...<b>5Y greek debt is now trading at a negative yield (yes, really)</b>... so which would you rather own 5Y UST at 75bps or 5Y GGB at -0.4bps!?</p><p><blockquote>最后，如果你想知道为什么人们再次购买UST...这里有一个原因...<b>5年期希腊债务目前收益率为负（是的，确实如此）</b>...那么，您更愿意以75个基点持有5年期UST还是以-0.4个基点持有5年期GGB！？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89cc32e484870131a463b81b2307f870\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bitcoin-pumped-banks-bonds-bullion-dumped\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bitcoin-pumped-banks-bonds-bullion-dumped","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183190766","content_text":"Big-tech was bid as soon as the cash market opened and both Small Caps (Russell 2000) and Big-Caps (Dow Industrials) were dumped with the S&P under water most of the day until the late day panic-bid hit as thegamma-meltup struck...\nThat's a record close for the S&P and Nasdaq thanks to this utterly ridiculous meltup...\nThe Nasdaq's outperformance pushed it to its highest relative to The Dow since April...\nSource: Bloomberg\nLordstown Motors was clubbed like a baby seal today as its CEO/CFO abandoned ship...\nRetail traders were back buying today...\nSource: Bloomberg\nElon Musk's ability to influence crypto is as evident as ever as he tweeted that he is not full of FUD and bitcoin ripped over 10% higher (helped by PTJ's positive perspective on crypto in an inflationary environment)...\nSource: Bloomberg\nJPM's Dimon spooked bank stocks even further - despite rising yields today...\nSource: Bloomberg\nUranium/Nuclear-related stocks tumbled on the China Nuke emissions headlines...\nSource: Bloomberg\nVIX jumped back above 17 intraday...\nS&P 500 Realized vol has tumbled to its lowest since Nov 2019...\nSource: Bloomberg\nWill The Fed's \"most important meeting in years\" this week get it moving?\nTreasuries were sold today, erasing more of the gains from Thursday's CPI malarkey. The short-end yield rose 1-2bps, the long-end yields rose 4-5bps...\nSource: Bloomberg\nWe note that 10Y yields hit 1.50% and the selloff stalled...\nSource: Bloomberg\nAmid all the chatter on inflation, breakevens went nowhere at all...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThe Dollar trod water after spiking Friday up to fill the payrolls gap down...\nSource: Bloomberg\nGold ended the day lower despite the dollar going nowhere...\nOil prices rollercoasted on the day but ended unchanged with WTI pushing up near $71.80 at its highs...\nFinally, if you're wondering why people are buying USTs again... here's one reason...5Y greek debt is now trading at a negative yield (yes, really)... so which would you rather own 5Y UST at 75bps or 5Y GGB at -0.4bps!?\nSource: 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moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321571899","repostId":"1143561095","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167761946,"gmtCreate":1624285158385,"gmtModify":1631893474913,"author":{"id":"3575507353908450","authorId":"3575507353908450","name":"trisnando","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97932ca83eff2802eeb59122aeca88e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575507353908450","idStr":"3575507353908450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No inflation pls","listText":"No inflation pls","text":"No inflation pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167761946","repostId":"1133913488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133913488","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624283796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133913488?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储讲话收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133913488","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead......which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already s","content":"<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储的“鹰派惊喜”和吉姆·布拉德周五早上的“你认为这是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒”时刻引发市场烟花之后，许多市场参与者尖叫“政策错误”，野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特警告说<b>交易员现在需要为本周一些潜在的“言论逆转”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个令人震惊的十六（！）未来日历上的美联储发言人...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已经大幅高于亚洲重新开放的低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b>&nbsp;particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities,&nbsp;<i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i>&nbsp;(Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>McElligott警告说，<b>造成逆势逆转的风险可能会让许多人再次措手不及，因为从战术上讲，美联储任何后退的迹象都可能引发“通货再膨胀”的观点。</b>特别是如果美元从这里进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负值倾斜，UST曲线在上周令人眼花缭乱的清算/止损后再次“熊市陡峭”——这也可能引发美国股市先前“周期性价值超过长期增长”趋势的同时反弹，<i>上周，上述表达方式的票房大幅下降</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“通货再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；周期价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御价值-2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股市“久期”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息+1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility,&nbsp;<b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是美联储“不惜一切代价维持宽松的金融环境”这一不言而喻的“第三项任务”所取得的成就</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上发挥了作用，在“旧”央行中，美联储将相应地转向“鹰派”并开始收紧政策；但在“美联储看跌”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在将上述“紧缩”对经济放缓的负面影响提前，并产生“缩减恐慌”，造成市场波动，<b>最终迫使美联储让步——如果市场发生鹰派基调转变。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险是，美联储发言人非常活跃的日历中的一些人现在将表达“担忧”，即上周的点阵图和SEP将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，并阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可以传达这些预测的“条件”程度如何——</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场因美联储“鹰派转向”而对“金融状况收紧”的部分拉动，这抵消了他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力！</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们以前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈膝”，风险资产的波动率飙升和强制去杠杆/对冲就会被“丰富的波动率”逆转，然后被出售，这在标准的滞后方式中将意味着，随着预期的“美联储回溯”之后，随着波动率被粉碎，跟踪rVol然后重置较低，动态对冲（空头）的大量回补和/或风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将导致市场恢复上涨<b><i>-“向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics,&nbsp;<b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex&nbsp;</b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步促进这些潜在的“弹弓”（向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超大的Op-Ex之后，我们现在本质上看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前ES为4167，这是“Delta中性vs现货”水平）</b><b><i>（尽管值得注意的是，我们现在处于“短伽马vs现货”区域，位于4167 last vs 4237“伽马中性”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd&nbsp;</b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b>&nbsp;this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>在VRP人群将增量“鹰派美联储意外”成交量飙升出售给交易商的情况下</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回退”的迹象），</i></b><b>这种波动性和伽马的冲动供应将再次使市场更加稳定、隔离，因为交易商“做多伽马”意味着对冲流动将进一步抑制市场波动的可能性</b>-因此，“销量销售”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储讲话收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储的“鹰派惊喜”和吉姆·布拉德周五早上的“你认为这是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒”时刻引发市场烟花之后，许多市场参与者尖叫“政策错误”，野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特警告说<b>交易员现在需要为本周一些潜在的“言论逆转”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个令人震惊的十六（！）未来日历上的美联储发言人...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已经大幅高于亚洲重新开放的低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b>&nbsp;particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities,&nbsp;<i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i>&nbsp;(Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>McElligott警告说，<b>造成逆势逆转的风险可能会让许多人再次措手不及，因为从战术上讲，美联储任何后退的迹象都可能引发“通货再膨胀”的观点。</b>特别是如果美元从这里进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负值倾斜，UST曲线在上周令人眼花缭乱的清算/止损后再次“熊市陡峭”——这也可能引发美国股市先前“周期性价值超过长期增长”趋势的同时反弹，<i>上周，上述表达方式的票房大幅下降</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“通货再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；周期价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御价值-2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股市“久期”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息+1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility,&nbsp;<b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是美联储“不惜一切代价维持宽松的金融环境”这一不言而喻的“第三项任务”所取得的成就</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上发挥了作用，在“旧”央行中，美联储将相应地转向“鹰派”并开始收紧政策；但在“美联储看跌”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在将上述“紧缩”对经济放缓的负面影响提前，并产生“缩减恐慌”，造成市场波动，<b>最终迫使美联储让步——如果市场发生鹰派基调转变。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险是，美联储发言人非常活跃的日历中的一些人现在将表达“担忧”，即上周的点阵图和SEP将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，并阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可以传达这些预测的“条件”程度如何——</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场因美联储“鹰派转向”而对“金融状况收紧”的部分拉动，这抵消了他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力！</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们以前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈膝”，风险资产的波动率飙升和强制去杠杆/对冲就会被“丰富的波动率”逆转，然后被出售，这在标准的滞后方式中将意味着，随着预期的“美联储回溯”之后，随着波动率被粉碎，跟踪rVol然后重置较低，动态对冲（空头）的大量回补和/或风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将导致市场恢复上涨<b><i>-“向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics,&nbsp;<b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex&nbsp;</b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步促进这些潜在的“弹弓”（向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超大的Op-Ex之后，我们现在本质上看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前ES为4167，这是“Delta中性vs现货”水平）</b><b><i>（尽管值得注意的是，我们现在处于“短伽马vs现货”区域，位于4167 last vs 4237“伽马中性”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd&nbsp;</b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b>&nbsp;this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>在VRP人群将增量“鹰派美联储意外”成交量飙升出售给交易商的情况下</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回退”的迹象），</i></b><b>这种波动性和伽马的冲动供应将再次使市场更加稳定、隔离，因为交易商“做多伽马”意味着对冲流动将进一步抑制市场波动的可能性</b>-因此，“销量销售”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133913488","content_text":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...\n...which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows...\nWhich McElligott warns,risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,” particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)\n\nEquities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%\nEquities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%\n\nThis is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought-an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.\nIn this case,the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!\nAnd as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.\nTo further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex (although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).\n\nAnd in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd (particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk), this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160615664,"gmtCreate":1623794738958,"gmtModify":1631893474923,"author":{"id":"3575507353908450","authorId":"3575507353908450","name":"trisnando","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97932ca83eff2802eeb59122aeca88e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575507353908450","idStr":"3575507353908450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls drop so i can buu","listText":"Pls drop so i can buu","text":"Pls drop so i can buu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160615664","repostId":"1187337744","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187337744","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770439,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187337744?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187337744","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","content":"<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>本周有一个FOMC会议，我们预计周三下午2:00会有一份政策声明。许多评论人士称这次FOMC会议是近年来“最重要的”会议。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Big picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>大局…美联储移动了球门柱吗？</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Let's look at some numbers.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看一些数字。</blockquote></p><p> Monthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -<b>these are real scary when they're annualized</b>.</p><p><blockquote>月度通胀：工资增长+.5%，PCE+.7%，PPI+.6%，CPI+.7%-<b>当它们按年计算时，真的很可怕</b>.</blockquote></p><p> GDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.</p><p><blockquote>在下一次报告中，国内生产总值预计为6.4%，失业率预计为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> With these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"<b>all in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>有了这些数字，美国货币仍然“<b>全押。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Overnight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.</p><p><blockquote>隔夜利率为0%，量化宽松每月投入1200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最重要的是，随着经济继续重新开放，将会有更多刺激措施。</b></blockquote></p><p> In my book, this economic situation calls for attention.</p><p><blockquote>在我的书中，这种经济形势引起了评级的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>It's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>就像全速行驶的泰坦尼克号。在雾中。在晚上。</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.</p><p><blockquote>也许放松油门是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>本周有一个FOMC会议，我们预计周三下午2:00会有一份政策声明。许多评论人士称这次FOMC会议是近年来“最重要的”会议。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Big picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>大局…美联储移动了球门柱吗？</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Let's look at some numbers.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看一些数字。</blockquote></p><p> Monthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -<b>these are real scary when they're annualized</b>.</p><p><blockquote>月度通胀：工资增长+.5%，PCE+.7%，PPI+.6%，CPI+.7%-<b>当它们按年计算时，真的很可怕</b>.</blockquote></p><p> GDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.</p><p><blockquote>在下一次报告中，国内生产总值预计为6.4%，失业率预计为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> With these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"<b>all in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>有了这些数字，美国货币仍然“<b>全押。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Overnight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.</p><p><blockquote>隔夜利率为0%，量化宽松每月投入1200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最重要的是，随着经济继续重新开放，将会有更多刺激措施。</b></blockquote></p><p> In my book, this economic situation calls for attention.</p><p><blockquote>在我的书中，这种经济形势引起了评级的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>It's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>就像全速行驶的泰坦尼克号。在雾中。在晚上。</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.</p><p><blockquote>也许放松油门是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187337744","content_text":"There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.\nBig picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?\nLet's look at some numbers.\nMonthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -these are real scary when they're annualized.\nGDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.\nWith these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"all in.\"\nOvernight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.\nOn top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.\nIn my book, this economic situation calls for attention.\nIt's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.\nPerhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349462792,"gmtCreate":1617632864016,"gmtModify":1631885382797,"author":{"id":"3575507353908450","authorId":"3575507353908450","name":"trisnando","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97932ca83eff2802eeb59122aeca88e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575507353908450","idStr":"3575507353908450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a>LETS GO","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a>LETS GO","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$LETS GO","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b2a04782b58bd83db625f146589a73","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349462792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380752824,"gmtCreate":1612599378968,"gmtModify":1703763940945,"author":{"id":"3575507353908450","authorId":"3575507353908450","name":"trisnando","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97932ca83eff2802eeb59122aeca88e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575507353908450","idStr":"3575507353908450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks tiger for the profits","listText":"Thanks tiger for the profits","text":"Thanks tiger for the profits","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b626410ecc9494b1a1ffa86de96090","width":"3024","height":"4032"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380752824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}