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2021-07-03

Comment and like pls will do the same

These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Comment and like ill do the same

Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到2万亿美元。还没做完呢。</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Comment and like ill do the same

Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>

2021-07-12

Like n comment will do the same pls thx

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2021-07-05

Comment and like pls will do the same

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2021-07-15

Like and comment please will do the same tyty

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2021-07-07

Help to comment and like will do the same thank you

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2021-06-29

Comment and like pls will do the same thanks

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2021-06-27

Comment and like ill do the same

Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Comment and like ill do the same

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and comment please will do the same tyty","listText":"Like and comment please will do the same tyty","text":"Like and comment please will do the same tyty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147186448","repostId":"2151751740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145592756,"gmtCreate":1626228726775,"gmtModify":1633928816240,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"HELP PLEASE TO LIKE MY COMMENT TQVM","listText":"HELP PLEASE TO LIKE MY COMMENT TQVM","text":"HELP PLEASE TO LIKE MY COMMENT 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ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148384341","repostId":"2150370120","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143041533,"gmtCreate":1625753611122,"gmtModify":1633937669989,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment will do the same","listText":"Like n comment will do the same","text":"Like n comment will do the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143041533","repostId":"1162204971","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140134251,"gmtCreate":1625636393973,"gmtModify":1633938829189,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Help to comment and like pls will do the same ty","listText":"Help to comment and like pls will do the same ty","text":"Help to comment and like pls will do the same ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140134251","repostId":"1109918984","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109918984","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625628447,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109918984?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-07 11:27","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Here are Wall Street’s 20 favorite energy stocks as crude oil hits a 6-year high<blockquote>随着原油触及6年高点，华尔街最受欢迎的20只能源股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109918984","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"The price of crude oil has recovered to its highest level in six years — way above break-even prices","content":"<p>The price of crude oil has recovered to its highest level in six years — way above break-even prices for U.S. shale producers. A delay in production increases by the OPEC+ group of oil producing nations has underlined the recent price push, but the prospect of a continuing economic recovery for the U.S. and other industrialized nations points to an opportunity for investors.</p><p><blockquote>原油价格已回升至六年来的最高水平——远高于美国页岩油生产商的盈亏平衡价格。OPEC+产油国集团推迟增产凸显了近期价格上涨，但美国和其他工业化国家经济持续复苏的前景为投资者带来了机会。</blockquote></p><p> Below is a list of 20 energy stocks favored by Wall Street analysts, with price targets implying upside of up to 39%.</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街分析师青睐的20只能源股名单，目标价意味着上涨空间高达39%。</blockquote></p><p> Oil stocks are running behind oil prices</p><p><blockquote>石油股落后于油价</blockquote></p><p> These charts compare the percentage movement for continuous forward-month contracts for West Texas Intermediate Crude OilCRUDE OILto total returns for the energy sector of the S&amp;P Composite 1500 indexXX:SP1500:</p><p><blockquote>这些图表比较了西德克萨斯中质原油连续远期合约与标准普尔综合1500指数XX：SP1500能源板块总回报的百分比变动：</blockquote></p><p> First, year-to-date moves through 7:25 a.m. ET on July 6:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22fb14d2e3c8ee1ecb51529055810355\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">FACTSET</p><p><blockquote>首先，年初至今截至美国东部时间7月6日上午7:25：FACTSET</blockquote></p><p> Even with dividends reinvested, the energy sector of the S&amp;P 1500 has lagged the price action for oil. (The S&amp;P Composite 1500 index is made up of the S&amp;P 500SPX, the S&amp;P 400 Mid Cap IndexMIDand the S&amp;P Small Cap 600 IndexSML.)</p><p><blockquote>即使股息进行了再投资，标准普尔1500指数的能源板块也落后于石油价格走势。（S&amp;P综合1500指数由S&amp;P 500SPX、S&amp;P 400中型股指数Mid和S&amp;P小型股600指数SML组成。）</blockquote></p><p> Now look at the one-year chart:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f414e1c0b0d223ff866915a067f13e8\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">FACTSET</p><p><blockquote>现在看看一年期图表：FACTSET</blockquote></p><p> There’s an argument to be made that oil stocks are way behind the recent price action. West Texas Crude Oil for August deliveryCLQ1was trading above $76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange early on July 6. For U.S. shale oil producers, there’s a critical relationship between the spot price and their production break-even prices for new wells, which ranged between $46 and $58 a barrel according to a survey conducted in March by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. (You can see that reporthere, with the break-even prices on the second-to-last slide and break-even prices for existing wells on the last slide.)</p><p><blockquote>有一种观点认为，石油股远远落后于最近的价格走势。7月6日早些时候，纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德克萨斯原油CLQ1交易价格超过每桶76美元。对于美国页岩油生产商来说，现货价格与其新井的生产盈亏平衡价格之间存在着重要关系，根据达拉斯联邦储备银行3月份进行的一项调查，新井的生产盈亏平衡价格在每桶46美元至58美元之间。（您可以在那里看到该报告，倒数第二张幻灯片上显示了盈亏平衡价格，最后一张幻灯片上显示了现有井的盈亏平衡价格。）</blockquote></p><p> It’s easy to understand that when West Texas Crude was trading for about $48.50 at the end of 2020, many investors remained shy of oil producers and related stocks.</p><p><blockquote>很容易理解，当西德克萨斯原油在2020年底的交易价格约为48.50美元时，许多投资者仍然对石油生产商和相关股票持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street’s favorite stocks of oil producers and related companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街最喜欢的石油生产商和相关公司的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> To screen for U.S.-listed oil stocks, we began with the S&amp;P 1500, in part because the S&amp;P 500 includes only 22 stocks. Some stocks dropped out of the large-cap benchmark index because their market values declined significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, but more broadly they have been suffering since oil prices peaked in 2014.</p><p><blockquote>为了筛选在美国上市的石油股，我们从标准普尔1500指数开始，部分原因是标普500只包括22只股票。一些股票退出了大盘股基准指数，因为它们的市值在COVID-19大流行期间大幅下跌，但更广泛地说，自2014年油价见顶以来，它们一直在遭受损失。</blockquote></p><p> There are 64 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500. We then added the 17 pipeline limited partnerships held by the Alerian MLP ETF, which aren’t included in the S&amp;P indexes. The pipelines are generally considered income plays, but there are some tax complications that should be part of your research before considering them for investment.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔1500指数中有64只股票。然后，我们添加了Alerian MLP ETF持有的17家管道有限合伙企业，这些企业未包含在标准普尔指数中。管道通常被认为是收入游戏，但在考虑投资之前，有一些复杂的税务问题应该成为您研究的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Among the screen of 81 energy stocks, 36 have majority “buy” or equivalent ratings among a group of at least five analysts working for brokerage firms, according to data provided by FactSet. Here are the 20 for which consensus price targets imply the most upside over the next 12 months:</p><p><blockquote>FactSet提供的数据显示，在筛选的81只能源股中，有36只在至少5名经纪公司分析师中获得了“买入”或同等评级。以下是共识价格目标意味着未来12个月上涨空间最大的20只股票：</blockquote></p><p> You can click the tickers for more about each company.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d4f89036e78c12bf09a265a9238174d\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"892\">Many oil companies have been forced to cut their dividends during the pandemic, but Valero Energy Corp.VLOand Chevron Corp.CVXare among the exceptions. Both have dividend yields above 5%.As always, ratings and price targets aren’t enough. You need to do your own research and consider any company’s long-term prospects before investing.</p><p><blockquote>您可以单击股票代码了解有关每家公司的更多信息。许多石油公司在疫情期间被迫削减股息，但瓦莱罗能源公司VLO和雪佛龙公司CVX是例外。两者的股息收益率都超过5%。一如既往，评级和价格目标是不够的。在投资之前，您需要自己进行研究并考虑任何公司的长期前景。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here are Wall Street’s 20 favorite energy stocks as crude oil hits a 6-year high<blockquote>随着原油触及6年高点，华尔街最受欢迎的20只能源股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere are Wall Street’s 20 favorite energy stocks as crude oil hits a 6-year high<blockquote>随着原油触及6年高点，华尔街最受欢迎的20只能源股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-07 11:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The price of crude oil has recovered to its highest level in six years — way above break-even prices for U.S. shale producers. A delay in production increases by the OPEC+ group of oil producing nations has underlined the recent price push, but the prospect of a continuing economic recovery for the U.S. and other industrialized nations points to an opportunity for investors.</p><p><blockquote>原油价格已回升至六年来的最高水平——远高于美国页岩油生产商的盈亏平衡价格。OPEC+产油国集团推迟增产凸显了近期价格上涨，但美国和其他工业化国家经济持续复苏的前景为投资者带来了机会。</blockquote></p><p> Below is a list of 20 energy stocks favored by Wall Street analysts, with price targets implying upside of up to 39%.</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街分析师青睐的20只能源股名单，目标价意味着上涨空间高达39%。</blockquote></p><p> Oil stocks are running behind oil prices</p><p><blockquote>石油股落后于油价</blockquote></p><p> These charts compare the percentage movement for continuous forward-month contracts for West Texas Intermediate Crude OilCRUDE OILto total returns for the energy sector of the S&amp;P Composite 1500 indexXX:SP1500:</p><p><blockquote>这些图表比较了西德克萨斯中质原油连续远期合约与标准普尔综合1500指数XX：SP1500能源板块总回报的百分比变动：</blockquote></p><p> First, year-to-date moves through 7:25 a.m. ET on July 6:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22fb14d2e3c8ee1ecb51529055810355\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">FACTSET</p><p><blockquote>首先，年初至今截至美国东部时间7月6日上午7:25：FACTSET</blockquote></p><p> Even with dividends reinvested, the energy sector of the S&amp;P 1500 has lagged the price action for oil. (The S&amp;P Composite 1500 index is made up of the S&amp;P 500SPX, the S&amp;P 400 Mid Cap IndexMIDand the S&amp;P Small Cap 600 IndexSML.)</p><p><blockquote>即使股息进行了再投资，标准普尔1500指数的能源板块也落后于石油价格走势。（S&amp;P综合1500指数由S&amp;P 500SPX、S&amp;P 400中型股指数Mid和S&amp;P小型股600指数SML组成。）</blockquote></p><p> Now look at the one-year chart:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f414e1c0b0d223ff866915a067f13e8\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">FACTSET</p><p><blockquote>现在看看一年期图表：FACTSET</blockquote></p><p> There’s an argument to be made that oil stocks are way behind the recent price action. West Texas Crude Oil for August deliveryCLQ1was trading above $76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange early on July 6. For U.S. shale oil producers, there’s a critical relationship between the spot price and their production break-even prices for new wells, which ranged between $46 and $58 a barrel according to a survey conducted in March by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. (You can see that reporthere, with the break-even prices on the second-to-last slide and break-even prices for existing wells on the last slide.)</p><p><blockquote>有一种观点认为，石油股远远落后于最近的价格走势。7月6日早些时候，纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德克萨斯原油CLQ1交易价格超过每桶76美元。对于美国页岩油生产商来说，现货价格与其新井的生产盈亏平衡价格之间存在着重要关系，根据达拉斯联邦储备银行3月份进行的一项调查，新井的生产盈亏平衡价格在每桶46美元至58美元之间。（您可以在那里看到该报告，倒数第二张幻灯片上显示了盈亏平衡价格，最后一张幻灯片上显示了现有井的盈亏平衡价格。）</blockquote></p><p> It’s easy to understand that when West Texas Crude was trading for about $48.50 at the end of 2020, many investors remained shy of oil producers and related stocks.</p><p><blockquote>很容易理解，当西德克萨斯原油在2020年底的交易价格约为48.50美元时，许多投资者仍然对石油生产商和相关股票持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street’s favorite stocks of oil producers and related companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街最喜欢的石油生产商和相关公司的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> To screen for U.S.-listed oil stocks, we began with the S&amp;P 1500, in part because the S&amp;P 500 includes only 22 stocks. Some stocks dropped out of the large-cap benchmark index because their market values declined significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, but more broadly they have been suffering since oil prices peaked in 2014.</p><p><blockquote>为了筛选在美国上市的石油股，我们从标准普尔1500指数开始，部分原因是标普500只包括22只股票。一些股票退出了大盘股基准指数，因为它们的市值在COVID-19大流行期间大幅下跌，但更广泛地说，自2014年油价见顶以来，它们一直在遭受损失。</blockquote></p><p> There are 64 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500. We then added the 17 pipeline limited partnerships held by the Alerian MLP ETF, which aren’t included in the S&amp;P indexes. The pipelines are generally considered income plays, but there are some tax complications that should be part of your research before considering them for investment.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔1500指数中有64只股票。然后，我们添加了Alerian MLP ETF持有的17家管道有限合伙企业，这些企业未包含在标准普尔指数中。管道通常被认为是收入游戏，但在考虑投资之前，有一些复杂的税务问题应该成为您研究的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Among the screen of 81 energy stocks, 36 have majority “buy” or equivalent ratings among a group of at least five analysts working for brokerage firms, according to data provided by FactSet. Here are the 20 for which consensus price targets imply the most upside over the next 12 months:</p><p><blockquote>FactSet提供的数据显示，在筛选的81只能源股中，有36只在至少5名经纪公司分析师中获得了“买入”或同等评级。以下是共识价格目标意味着未来12个月上涨空间最大的20只股票：</blockquote></p><p> You can click the tickers for more about each company.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d4f89036e78c12bf09a265a9238174d\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"892\">Many oil companies have been forced to cut their dividends during the pandemic, but Valero Energy Corp.VLOand Chevron Corp.CVXare among the exceptions. Both have dividend yields above 5%.As always, ratings and price targets aren’t enough. You need to do your own research and consider any company’s long-term prospects before investing.</p><p><blockquote>您可以单击股票代码了解有关每家公司的更多信息。许多石油公司在疫情期间被迫削减股息，但瓦莱罗能源公司VLO和雪佛龙公司CVX是例外。两者的股息收益率都超过5%。一如既往，评级和价格目标是不够的。在投资之前，您需要自己进行研究并考虑任何公司的长期前景。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-wall-streets-20-favorite-energy-stocks-as-crude-oil-hits-a-6-year-high-11625575911?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-wall-streets-20-favorite-energy-stocks-as-crude-oil-hits-a-6-year-high-11625575911?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109918984","content_text":"The price of crude oil has recovered to its highest level in six years — way above break-even prices for U.S. shale producers. A delay in production increases by the OPEC+ group of oil producing nations has underlined the recent price push, but the prospect of a continuing economic recovery for the U.S. and other industrialized nations points to an opportunity for investors.\nBelow is a list of 20 energy stocks favored by Wall Street analysts, with price targets implying upside of up to 39%.\nOil stocks are running behind oil prices\nThese charts compare the percentage movement for continuous forward-month contracts for West Texas Intermediate Crude OilCRUDE OILto total returns for the energy sector of the S&P Composite 1500 indexXX:SP1500:\nFirst, year-to-date moves through 7:25 a.m. ET on July 6:FACTSET\nEven with dividends reinvested, the energy sector of the S&P 1500 has lagged the price action for oil. (The S&P Composite 1500 index is made up of the S&P 500SPX, the S&P 400 Mid Cap IndexMIDand the S&P Small Cap 600 IndexSML.)\nNow look at the one-year chart:FACTSET\nThere’s an argument to be made that oil stocks are way behind the recent price action. West Texas Crude Oil for August deliveryCLQ1was trading above $76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange early on July 6. For U.S. shale oil producers, there’s a critical relationship between the spot price and their production break-even prices for new wells, which ranged between $46 and $58 a barrel according to a survey conducted in March by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. (You can see that reporthere, with the break-even prices on the second-to-last slide and break-even prices for existing wells on the last slide.)\nIt’s easy to understand that when West Texas Crude was trading for about $48.50 at the end of 2020, many investors remained shy of oil producers and related stocks.\nWall Street’s favorite stocks of oil producers and related companies\nTo screen for U.S.-listed oil stocks, we began with the S&P 1500, in part because the S&P 500 includes only 22 stocks. Some stocks dropped out of the large-cap benchmark index because their market values declined significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, but more broadly they have been suffering since oil prices peaked in 2014.\nThere are 64 stocks in the S&P 1500. We then added the 17 pipeline limited partnerships held by the Alerian MLP ETF, which aren’t included in the S&P indexes. The pipelines are generally considered income plays, but there are some tax complications that should be part of your research before considering them for investment.\nAmong the screen of 81 energy stocks, 36 have majority “buy” or equivalent ratings among a group of at least five analysts working for brokerage firms, according to data provided by FactSet. Here are the 20 for which consensus price targets imply the most upside over the next 12 months:\nYou can click the tickers for more about each company.Many oil companies have been forced to cut their dividends during the pandemic, but Valero Energy Corp.VLOand Chevron Corp.CVXare among the exceptions. Both have dividend yields above 5%.As always, ratings and price targets aren’t enough. You need to do your own research and consider any company’s long-term prospects before investing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140134066,"gmtCreate":1625636341355,"gmtModify":1633938829755,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Help to comment and like will do the same thank you","listText":"Help to comment and like will do the same thank you","text":"Help to comment and like will do the same thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140134066","repostId":"1163143630","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154909304,"gmtCreate":1625464921808,"gmtModify":1633940414116,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls will do the same&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like pls will do the same&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like pls will do the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154909304","repostId":"1179512141","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154900727,"gmtCreate":1625464897869,"gmtModify":1633940414238,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls 🙏","listText":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls 🙏","text":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls 🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154900727","repostId":"1170100655","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170100655","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625452503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170100655?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-05 10:35","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Best E-Commerce Stocks To Buy In July 2021? 4 Names In Focus<blockquote>2021年7月最值得购买的电子商务股票？4个名字成为焦点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170100655","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"Could These Be The Top E-Commerce Stocks To Watch Right Now?E-commerce stocks had a historic year in thestock marketlast year. Well, it shouldn’t come as a surprise since many countries around the world were sent into lockdown. At that point, most shopping activities were conducted online. So, even those who were skeptical of online shopping initially must have been exposed to e-commerce platforms. This is of course due to the advancement of technology as well. Some company’s platforms such as P","content":"<p>Could These Be The Top E-Commerce Stocks To Watch Right Now?</p><p><blockquote>这些可能是目前最值得关注的电子商务股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> E-commerce stocks had a historic year in thestock marketlast year. Well, it shouldn’t come as a surprise since many countries around the world were sent into lockdown. At that point, most shopping activities were conducted online. So, even those who were skeptical of online shopping initially must have been exposed to e-commerce platforms. This is of course due to the advancement of technology as well. Some company’s platforms such as Pinterest Inc (NYSE: PINS) even have augmented reality features that would allow you to have a rough idea of what you’re getting.</p><p><blockquote>去年，电子商务股票在股市上度过了历史性的一年。嗯，这并不奇怪，因为世界上许多国家都被封锁了。那时，大多数购物活动都是在网上进行的。所以，即使是那些最初对网上购物持怀疑态度的人，也一定接触过电子商务平台。这当然也是由于技术的进步。Pinterest公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PINS）等一些公司的平台甚至具有增强现实功能，可以让您大致了解您将获得的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The shift to online shopping has resulted in many emerging e-commerce companies. For example, we have Jumia Technologies (NYSE: JMIA) that aims to be the top online marketplace in the whole of Africa. Perhaps, this should not be overlooked as e-commerce is still a growing sector in Africa. Moreover, JMIA stock has already soared by more than 400% just within the past year. Now, if you are optimistic about the future of e-commerce, here’s a list of fourtop e-commerce stocks to watchin thestock market today.</p><p><blockquote>向网上购物的转变催生了许多新兴的电子商务公司。例如，我们有Jumia Technologies（纽约证券交易所代码：JMIA），其目标是成为整个非洲的顶级在线市场。也许，这不应该被忽视，因为电子商务在非洲仍然是一个不断增长的部门。此外，JMIA股价仅在过去一年内就飙升了400%以上。现在，如果您对电子商务的未来持乐观态度，这里列出了当今股市值得关注的四大电子商务股票。</blockquote></p><p> Best E-Commerce Stocks To Watch</p><p><blockquote>最值得关注的电子商务股票</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">Etsy</a> Inc</b>(NASDAQ: ETSY)</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAYL\">eBay</a> Inc</b>(NASDAQ: EBAY)</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> Group Holding Ltd</b>(NYSE: BABA)</li>  <li><b>Chewy Inc</b>(NYSE: CHWY)</li> </ul> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">Etsy</a> Inc</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">Etsy</a>Inc</b>（纳斯达克：ETSY）</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAYL\">eBay</a>Inc</b>（纳斯达克：EBAY）</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>集团控股有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BABA）</li><li><b>耐嚼公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CHWY）</li></ul><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">Etsy</a>Inc</blockquote></p><p> Let us start the list with Etsy. The company operates a marketplace where people globally connect, both online and offline to sell and buy goods. It also offers a range of seller services and tools that help entrepreneurs manage their businesses. As of now, the company’s seller services include Direct Checkout, Promoted Listings, Shipping Labels, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEGI\">Pattern</a> by Etsy. ETSY stock has risen by over 80% over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从Etsy开始。该公司运营着一个市场，人们可以在线上和线下进行全球联系，买卖商品。它还提供一系列卖家服务和工具，帮助企业家管理他们的业务。截至目前，该公司的卖家服务包括直接结账、促销列表、运输标签和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEGI\">模式</a>作者Etsy。ETSY股价在过去一年上涨了80%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4998810533317bc7562c92dbf9801556\" tg-width=\"250\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> On Monday, Etsy signed a definitive agreement to acquire Elo7, a privately held marketplace for unique, handmade items, ranked as a top 10 e-commerce site in Brazil. The Elo7 marketplace connects approximately 1.9 million active buyers with approximately 56,000 active sellers and currently has approximately 8 million items for sale. Hence, this deal would establish Etsy’s presence in Latin America, an underpenetrated e-commerce region.</p><p><blockquote>周一，Etsy签署了一项最终协议，收购Elo7，这是一个私人拥有的独特手工商品市场，在巴西排名前十的电子商务网站。Elo7市场连接了大约190万活跃买家和大约56,000名活跃卖家，目前有大约800万件商品待售。因此，这笔交易将确立Etsy在拉丁美洲这个电子商务渗透率较低的地区的地位。</blockquote></p><p> Etsy is not resting on its laurels. It also signed a definitive agreement to acquire Depop, a purpose-driven marketplace for unique fashion for $1.625 billion earlier in June. Depop is a community-powered marketplace to buy and sell unique fashion, with a mission to build the world’s most diverse and progressive home of fashion. It appears that 90% of Depop’s active users are under the age of 26. So, this could serve as a resale home for Gen Z consumers to the Etsy family. Given all these exciting developments, would you consider investing in ETSY stock?</p><p><blockquote>Etsy并没有固步自封。6月初，该公司还签署了一项最终协议，以16.25亿美元收购Depop，这是一个以目的为导向的独特时尚市场。Depop是一个社区驱动的市场，买卖独特的时尚，其使命是建立世界上最多样化和最进步的时尚之家。Depop 90%的活跃用户年龄在26岁以下。因此，这可以作为Z世代消费者向Etsy家族的转售房屋。鉴于所有这些令人兴奋的发展，您会考虑投资ETSY股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> Inc</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>Inc</blockquote></p><p> Next, we have <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the industry leaders of e-commerce, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAYL\">eBay</a>. Essentially, the company operates marketplace platforms that connect buyers and sellers globally. This includes its online marketplace at ebay.com and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> suite of mobile apps. So, you could buy, sell, and pay for items through various online and offline channels. eBay stock has been <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the better-performing stocks within the e-commerce space this year. It has climbed by over 35% year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>电子商务的行业领导者，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAYL\">eBay</a>本质上，该公司运营连接全球买家和卖家的市场平台。这包括其在ebay.com的在线市场和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>移动应用套件。因此，你可以通过各种线上和线下渠道购买、销售和支付物品。eBay股票已<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>今年电子商务领域表现较好的股票之一。今年迄今已攀升超过35%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3225891cc70ad7e916ca99aa07101ba2\" tg-width=\"250\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> last week, the company announced the completion of the transfer of its Classifieds business to Adevinta in exchange for $2.5 billion cash and a 44% equity stake in Adevinta. This combination will hopefully create a leading global online classifieds business. In the long run, both companies will be primed to benefit from its combined portfolio that may offer additional value for its customers and shareholders.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>上周，该公司宣布完成将其分类广告业务转让给Adevinta，以换取25亿美元现金和Adevinta 44%的股权。这一合并将有望创造一个领先的全球在线分类广告业务。从长远来看，两家公司都将从其合并后的投资组合中受益，这可能会为其客户和股东提供额外的价值。</blockquote></p><p> eBay also had an impressive first quarter to start the year with the highest revenue growth since 2005. Its revenue was $3.0 billion, up 42% on an as-reported basis. There was also increased activity on its platform. Annual active buyers grew by 7%, now at a total of 187 million. Meanwhile, its annual active sellers grew by 8%, for a total of 20 million. We can see that the company is firing on all cylinders as we recover from the global pandemic. With that in mind, would you add EBAY stock to your watchlist?</p><p><blockquote>eBay今年第一季度的收入增长也令人印象深刻，创下了2005年以来的最高水平。其收入为30亿美元，较报告增长42%。其平台上的活动也有所增加。年度活跃买家增长了7%，目前总数为1.87亿。与此同时，其年度活跃卖家增长了8%，总数达到2000万。我们可以看到，随着我们从全球大流行中恢复过来，该公司正在全力以赴。考虑到这一点，您会将EBAY股票添加到您的观察列表中吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a> Group Holding Ltd</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>集团控股有限公司</blockquote></p><p> Coming up next, we have <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the largest e-commerce companies in the world, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>. The company’s technology infrastructure and marketing reach help merchants and brands to leverage the power of technology to engage its users, and customers to operate. As of today, its three main sites, Taobao, Tmall, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>.com boast hundreds of millions of users and host millions of merchants and businesses.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>在全球最大的电子商务公司中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>该公司的技术基础设施和营销覆盖范围帮助商家和品牌利用技术的力量来吸引用户和客户进行运营。截至今日，旗下淘宝、天猫、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>.com拥有数亿用户，拥有数百万商家和企业。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0bf902b6908baca1ebc71478c54967\" tg-width=\"250\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, the company is as strong as ever. For its fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 earnings report, its revenue climbed to $28.6 billion, representing a 64% increase. Alibaba also reported 811 million annual active consumers in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> which represents an 11% growth year-over-year. This is important because retaining and attracting active consumers would support the company’s business model.</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，该公司一如既往地强大。在2021财年第四季度收益报告中，其收入攀升至286亿美元，增长64%。阿里巴巴-SW还报告称，年活跃消费者为8.11亿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>同比增长11%。这一点很重要，因为留住和吸引活跃的消费者将支持公司的商业模式。</blockquote></p><p> That said, it has not been a fantastic year for Alibaba this year. The company’s struggle this year was affected by the Chinese government. Alibaba was hit with a record fine of $2.75 billion earlier in April. However, the worst could be over for the company as the Chinese government is slowly shifting its focus to the company’s competitors. So, if you have missed the boat on BABA stock prior to this, could this be the classic buy-on-dip opportunity?</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，今年对阿里巴巴-SW来说并不是美妙的一年。该公司今年的困境受到了中国政府的影响。4月初，阿里巴巴-SW被处以创纪录的27.5亿美元罚款。然而，随着中国政府慢慢将重点转向该公司的竞争对手，该公司最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。那么，如果您在此之前错过了阿里巴巴股票的机会，那么这可能是经典的逢低买入机会吗？</blockquote></p><p> Chewy Inc</p><p><blockquote>耐嚼公司</blockquote></p><p> Last on this list, we have an e-commerce company that specializes in pet products, Chewy. In essence, it provides pet food and treats, pet supplies and pet medications, and other pet-health products, as well as pet services. Pet lovers out there could access all these products through its chewy.com retail website, and its mobile applications. The company stock may have been trading sideways since the start of the year. But, it has still climbed by over 70% over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们有一家专门从事宠物产品的电子商务公司Chewy。本质上，它提供宠物食品和零食、宠物用品和宠物药物、其他宠物健康产品以及宠物服务。宠物爱好者可以通过其chewy.com零售网站及其移动应用程序访问所有这些产品。自今年年初以来，该公司股票可能一直在横盘整理。但是，在过去的一年里，它仍然攀升了70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d6c920416f733d0edf62d1148a8061\" tg-width=\"250\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In June, the company posted its first-quarter financial report that beat analysts’ expectations. Its net sales were $2.14 billion, growing 31.7% year-over-year. Meanwhile, its adjusted EBITDA came in at $77.4 million and its net income was $38.7 million. More importantly, Chewy added 600,000 active customers during the quarter which brings the number of active customers to 19.2 million. All in all, the company is growing in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>6月，该公司发布了超出分析师预期的第一季度财务报告。其净销售额为21.4亿美元，同比增长31.7%。与此同时，其调整后EBITDA为7740万美元，净利润为3870万美元。更重要的是，Chewy在本季度增加了60万活跃客户，使活跃客户数量达到1920万。总而言之，公司正在朝着正确的方向发展。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, Chewy also continues to innovate on their popular telehealth service, Connect with a Vet. May’s expansion includes the highly anticipated video consultation feature which allows pre-scheduling virtual vet consultation and extended hours of operation including weekends. With this, customers gain more accessibility to the company’s services and a better experience overall. With that in mind, would CHWY stock make your watchlist?</p><p><blockquote>此外，Chewy还继续创新他们广受欢迎的远程医疗服务“与兽医联系”。May的扩展包括备受期待的视频咨询功能，该功能允许预先安排虚拟兽医咨询和延长营业时间，包括周末。通过这种方式，客户可以更容易地获得公司的服务，并获得更好的整体体验。考虑到这一点，CHWY股票会列入您的观察名单吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Best E-Commerce Stocks To Buy In July 2021? 4 Names In Focus<blockquote>2021年7月最值得购买的电子商务股票？4个名字成为焦点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBest E-Commerce Stocks To Buy In July 2021? 4 Names In Focus<blockquote>2021年7月最值得购买的电子商务股票？4个名字成为焦点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nasdaq</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 10:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Could These Be The Top E-Commerce Stocks To Watch Right Now?</p><p><blockquote>这些可能是目前最值得关注的电子商务股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> E-commerce stocks had a historic year in thestock marketlast year. Well, it shouldn’t come as a surprise since many countries around the world were sent into lockdown. At that point, most shopping activities were conducted online. So, even those who were skeptical of online shopping initially must have been exposed to e-commerce platforms. This is of course due to the advancement of technology as well. Some company’s platforms such as Pinterest Inc (NYSE: PINS) even have augmented reality features that would allow you to have a rough idea of what you’re getting.</p><p><blockquote>去年，电子商务股票在股市上度过了历史性的一年。嗯，这并不奇怪，因为世界上许多国家都被封锁了。那时，大多数购物活动都是在网上进行的。所以，即使是那些最初对网上购物持怀疑态度的人，也一定接触过电子商务平台。这当然也是由于技术的进步。Pinterest公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PINS）等一些公司的平台甚至具有增强现实功能，可以让您大致了解您将获得的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The shift to online shopping has resulted in many emerging e-commerce companies. For example, we have Jumia Technologies (NYSE: JMIA) that aims to be the top online marketplace in the whole of Africa. Perhaps, this should not be overlooked as e-commerce is still a growing sector in Africa. Moreover, JMIA stock has already soared by more than 400% just within the past year. Now, if you are optimistic about the future of e-commerce, here’s a list of fourtop e-commerce stocks to watchin thestock market today.</p><p><blockquote>向网上购物的转变催生了许多新兴的电子商务公司。例如，我们有Jumia Technologies（纽约证券交易所代码：JMIA），其目标是成为整个非洲的顶级在线市场。也许，这不应该被忽视，因为电子商务在非洲仍然是一个不断增长的部门。此外，JMIA股价仅在过去一年内就飙升了400%以上。现在，如果您对电子商务的未来持乐观态度，这里列出了当今股市值得关注的四大电子商务股票。</blockquote></p><p> Best E-Commerce Stocks To Watch</p><p><blockquote>最值得关注的电子商务股票</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">Etsy</a> Inc</b>(NASDAQ: ETSY)</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAYL\">eBay</a> Inc</b>(NASDAQ: EBAY)</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> Group Holding Ltd</b>(NYSE: BABA)</li>  <li><b>Chewy Inc</b>(NYSE: CHWY)</li> </ul> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">Etsy</a> Inc</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">Etsy</a>Inc</b>（纳斯达克：ETSY）</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAYL\">eBay</a>Inc</b>（纳斯达克：EBAY）</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>集团控股有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BABA）</li><li><b>耐嚼公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CHWY）</li></ul><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">Etsy</a>Inc</blockquote></p><p> Let us start the list with Etsy. The company operates a marketplace where people globally connect, both online and offline to sell and buy goods. It also offers a range of seller services and tools that help entrepreneurs manage their businesses. As of now, the company’s seller services include Direct Checkout, Promoted Listings, Shipping Labels, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEGI\">Pattern</a> by Etsy. ETSY stock has risen by over 80% over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从Etsy开始。该公司运营着一个市场，人们可以在线上和线下进行全球联系，买卖商品。它还提供一系列卖家服务和工具，帮助企业家管理他们的业务。截至目前，该公司的卖家服务包括直接结账、促销列表、运输标签和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEGI\">模式</a>作者Etsy。ETSY股价在过去一年上涨了80%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4998810533317bc7562c92dbf9801556\" tg-width=\"250\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> On Monday, Etsy signed a definitive agreement to acquire Elo7, a privately held marketplace for unique, handmade items, ranked as a top 10 e-commerce site in Brazil. The Elo7 marketplace connects approximately 1.9 million active buyers with approximately 56,000 active sellers and currently has approximately 8 million items for sale. Hence, this deal would establish Etsy’s presence in Latin America, an underpenetrated e-commerce region.</p><p><blockquote>周一，Etsy签署了一项最终协议，收购Elo7，这是一个私人拥有的独特手工商品市场，在巴西排名前十的电子商务网站。Elo7市场连接了大约190万活跃买家和大约56,000名活跃卖家，目前有大约800万件商品待售。因此，这笔交易将确立Etsy在拉丁美洲这个电子商务渗透率较低的地区的地位。</blockquote></p><p> Etsy is not resting on its laurels. It also signed a definitive agreement to acquire Depop, a purpose-driven marketplace for unique fashion for $1.625 billion earlier in June. Depop is a community-powered marketplace to buy and sell unique fashion, with a mission to build the world’s most diverse and progressive home of fashion. It appears that 90% of Depop’s active users are under the age of 26. So, this could serve as a resale home for Gen Z consumers to the Etsy family. Given all these exciting developments, would you consider investing in ETSY stock?</p><p><blockquote>Etsy并没有固步自封。6月初，该公司还签署了一项最终协议，以16.25亿美元收购Depop，这是一个以目的为导向的独特时尚市场。Depop是一个社区驱动的市场，买卖独特的时尚，其使命是建立世界上最多样化和最进步的时尚之家。Depop 90%的活跃用户年龄在26岁以下。因此，这可以作为Z世代消费者向Etsy家族的转售房屋。鉴于所有这些令人兴奋的发展，您会考虑投资ETSY股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> Inc</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>Inc</blockquote></p><p> Next, we have <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the industry leaders of e-commerce, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAYL\">eBay</a>. Essentially, the company operates marketplace platforms that connect buyers and sellers globally. This includes its online marketplace at ebay.com and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> suite of mobile apps. So, you could buy, sell, and pay for items through various online and offline channels. eBay stock has been <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the better-performing stocks within the e-commerce space this year. It has climbed by over 35% year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>电子商务的行业领导者，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAYL\">eBay</a>本质上，该公司运营连接全球买家和卖家的市场平台。这包括其在ebay.com的在线市场和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>移动应用套件。因此，你可以通过各种线上和线下渠道购买、销售和支付物品。eBay股票已<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>今年电子商务领域表现较好的股票之一。今年迄今已攀升超过35%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3225891cc70ad7e916ca99aa07101ba2\" tg-width=\"250\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> last week, the company announced the completion of the transfer of its Classifieds business to Adevinta in exchange for $2.5 billion cash and a 44% equity stake in Adevinta. This combination will hopefully create a leading global online classifieds business. In the long run, both companies will be primed to benefit from its combined portfolio that may offer additional value for its customers and shareholders.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>上周，该公司宣布完成将其分类广告业务转让给Adevinta，以换取25亿美元现金和Adevinta 44%的股权。这一合并将有望创造一个领先的全球在线分类广告业务。从长远来看，两家公司都将从其合并后的投资组合中受益，这可能会为其客户和股东提供额外的价值。</blockquote></p><p> eBay also had an impressive first quarter to start the year with the highest revenue growth since 2005. Its revenue was $3.0 billion, up 42% on an as-reported basis. There was also increased activity on its platform. Annual active buyers grew by 7%, now at a total of 187 million. Meanwhile, its annual active sellers grew by 8%, for a total of 20 million. We can see that the company is firing on all cylinders as we recover from the global pandemic. With that in mind, would you add EBAY stock to your watchlist?</p><p><blockquote>eBay今年第一季度的收入增长也令人印象深刻，创下了2005年以来的最高水平。其收入为30亿美元，较报告增长42%。其平台上的活动也有所增加。年度活跃买家增长了7%，目前总数为1.87亿。与此同时，其年度活跃卖家增长了8%，总数达到2000万。我们可以看到，随着我们从全球大流行中恢复过来，该公司正在全力以赴。考虑到这一点，您会将EBAY股票添加到您的观察列表中吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a> Group Holding Ltd</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>集团控股有限公司</blockquote></p><p> Coming up next, we have <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the largest e-commerce companies in the world, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>. The company’s technology infrastructure and marketing reach help merchants and brands to leverage the power of technology to engage its users, and customers to operate. As of today, its three main sites, Taobao, Tmall, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>.com boast hundreds of millions of users and host millions of merchants and businesses.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>在全球最大的电子商务公司中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>该公司的技术基础设施和营销覆盖范围帮助商家和品牌利用技术的力量来吸引用户和客户进行运营。截至今日，旗下淘宝、天猫、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>.com拥有数亿用户，拥有数百万商家和企业。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0bf902b6908baca1ebc71478c54967\" tg-width=\"250\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, the company is as strong as ever. For its fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 earnings report, its revenue climbed to $28.6 billion, representing a 64% increase. Alibaba also reported 811 million annual active consumers in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> which represents an 11% growth year-over-year. This is important because retaining and attracting active consumers would support the company’s business model.</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，该公司一如既往地强大。在2021财年第四季度收益报告中，其收入攀升至286亿美元，增长64%。阿里巴巴-SW还报告称，年活跃消费者为8.11亿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>同比增长11%。这一点很重要，因为留住和吸引活跃的消费者将支持公司的商业模式。</blockquote></p><p> That said, it has not been a fantastic year for Alibaba this year. The company’s struggle this year was affected by the Chinese government. Alibaba was hit with a record fine of $2.75 billion earlier in April. However, the worst could be over for the company as the Chinese government is slowly shifting its focus to the company’s competitors. So, if you have missed the boat on BABA stock prior to this, could this be the classic buy-on-dip opportunity?</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，今年对阿里巴巴-SW来说并不是美妙的一年。该公司今年的困境受到了中国政府的影响。4月初，阿里巴巴-SW被处以创纪录的27.5亿美元罚款。然而，随着中国政府慢慢将重点转向该公司的竞争对手，该公司最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。那么，如果您在此之前错过了阿里巴巴股票的机会，那么这可能是经典的逢低买入机会吗？</blockquote></p><p> Chewy Inc</p><p><blockquote>耐嚼公司</blockquote></p><p> Last on this list, we have an e-commerce company that specializes in pet products, Chewy. In essence, it provides pet food and treats, pet supplies and pet medications, and other pet-health products, as well as pet services. Pet lovers out there could access all these products through its chewy.com retail website, and its mobile applications. The company stock may have been trading sideways since the start of the year. But, it has still climbed by over 70% over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们有一家专门从事宠物产品的电子商务公司Chewy。本质上，它提供宠物食品和零食、宠物用品和宠物药物、其他宠物健康产品以及宠物服务。宠物爱好者可以通过其chewy.com零售网站及其移动应用程序访问所有这些产品。自今年年初以来，该公司股票可能一直在横盘整理。但是，在过去的一年里，它仍然攀升了70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d6c920416f733d0edf62d1148a8061\" tg-width=\"250\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In June, the company posted its first-quarter financial report that beat analysts’ expectations. Its net sales were $2.14 billion, growing 31.7% year-over-year. Meanwhile, its adjusted EBITDA came in at $77.4 million and its net income was $38.7 million. More importantly, Chewy added 600,000 active customers during the quarter which brings the number of active customers to 19.2 million. All in all, the company is growing in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>6月，该公司发布了超出分析师预期的第一季度财务报告。其净销售额为21.4亿美元，同比增长31.7%。与此同时，其调整后EBITDA为7740万美元，净利润为3870万美元。更重要的是，Chewy在本季度增加了60万活跃客户，使活跃客户数量达到1920万。总而言之，公司正在朝着正确的方向发展。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, Chewy also continues to innovate on their popular telehealth service, Connect with a Vet. May’s expansion includes the highly anticipated video consultation feature which allows pre-scheduling virtual vet consultation and extended hours of operation including weekends. With this, customers gain more accessibility to the company’s services and a better experience overall. With that in mind, would CHWY stock make your watchlist?</p><p><blockquote>此外，Chewy还继续创新他们广受欢迎的远程医疗服务“与兽医联系”。May的扩展包括备受期待的视频咨询功能，该功能允许预先安排虚拟兽医咨询和延长营业时间，包括周末。通过这种方式，客户可以更容易地获得公司的服务，并获得更好的整体体验。考虑到这一点，CHWY股票会列入您的观察名单吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/best-e-commerce-stocks-to-buy-in-july-2021-4-names-in-focus-2021-07-02\">Nasdaq</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ETSY":"Etsy, Inc.","BABA":"阿里巴巴","EBAY":"eBay","CHWY":"Chewy, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/best-e-commerce-stocks-to-buy-in-july-2021-4-names-in-focus-2021-07-02","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170100655","content_text":"Could These Be The Top E-Commerce Stocks To Watch Right Now?\nE-commerce stocks had a historic year in thestock marketlast year. Well, it shouldn’t come as a surprise since many countries around the world were sent into lockdown. At that point, most shopping activities were conducted online. So, even those who were skeptical of online shopping initially must have been exposed to e-commerce platforms. This is of course due to the advancement of technology as well. Some company’s platforms such as Pinterest Inc (NYSE: PINS) even have augmented reality features that would allow you to have a rough idea of what you’re getting.\nThe shift to online shopping has resulted in many emerging e-commerce companies. For example, we have Jumia Technologies (NYSE: JMIA) that aims to be the top online marketplace in the whole of Africa. Perhaps, this should not be overlooked as e-commerce is still a growing sector in Africa. Moreover, JMIA stock has already soared by more than 400% just within the past year. Now, if you are optimistic about the future of e-commerce, here’s a list of fourtop e-commerce stocks to watchin thestock market today.\nBest E-Commerce Stocks To Watch\n\nEtsy Inc(NASDAQ: ETSY)\neBay Inc(NASDAQ: EBAY)\nAlibaba Group Holding Ltd(NYSE: BABA)\nChewy Inc(NYSE: CHWY)\n\nEtsy Inc\nLet us start the list with Etsy. The company operates a marketplace where people globally connect, both online and offline to sell and buy goods. It also offers a range of seller services and tools that help entrepreneurs manage their businesses. As of now, the company’s seller services include Direct Checkout, Promoted Listings, Shipping Labels, and Pattern by Etsy. ETSY stock has risen by over 80% over the past year.\n\nOn Monday, Etsy signed a definitive agreement to acquire Elo7, a privately held marketplace for unique, handmade items, ranked as a top 10 e-commerce site in Brazil. The Elo7 marketplace connects approximately 1.9 million active buyers with approximately 56,000 active sellers and currently has approximately 8 million items for sale. Hence, this deal would establish Etsy’s presence in Latin America, an underpenetrated e-commerce region.\nEtsy is not resting on its laurels. It also signed a definitive agreement to acquire Depop, a purpose-driven marketplace for unique fashion for $1.625 billion earlier in June. Depop is a community-powered marketplace to buy and sell unique fashion, with a mission to build the world’s most diverse and progressive home of fashion. It appears that 90% of Depop’s active users are under the age of 26. So, this could serve as a resale home for Gen Z consumers to the Etsy family. Given all these exciting developments, would you consider investing in ETSY stock?\neBay Inc\nNext, we have one of the industry leaders of e-commerce, eBay. Essentially, the company operates marketplace platforms that connect buyers and sellers globally. This includes its online marketplace at ebay.com and the eBay suite of mobile apps. So, you could buy, sell, and pay for items through various online and offline channels. eBay stock has been one of the better-performing stocks within the e-commerce space this year. It has climbed by over 35% year-to-date.\n\nJust last week, the company announced the completion of the transfer of its Classifieds business to Adevinta in exchange for $2.5 billion cash and a 44% equity stake in Adevinta. This combination will hopefully create a leading global online classifieds business. In the long run, both companies will be primed to benefit from its combined portfolio that may offer additional value for its customers and shareholders.\neBay also had an impressive first quarter to start the year with the highest revenue growth since 2005. Its revenue was $3.0 billion, up 42% on an as-reported basis. There was also increased activity on its platform. Annual active buyers grew by 7%, now at a total of 187 million. Meanwhile, its annual active sellers grew by 8%, for a total of 20 million. We can see that the company is firing on all cylinders as we recover from the global pandemic. With that in mind, would you add EBAY stock to your watchlist?\nAlibaba Group Holding Ltd\nComing up next, we have one of the largest e-commerce companies in the world, Alibaba. The company’s technology infrastructure and marketing reach help merchants and brands to leverage the power of technology to engage its users, and customers to operate. As of today, its three main sites, Taobao, Tmall, and Alibaba.com boast hundreds of millions of users and host millions of merchants and businesses.\n\nFundamentally, the company is as strong as ever. For its fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 earnings report, its revenue climbed to $28.6 billion, representing a 64% increase. Alibaba also reported 811 million annual active consumers in China which represents an 11% growth year-over-year. This is important because retaining and attracting active consumers would support the company’s business model.\nThat said, it has not been a fantastic year for Alibaba this year. The company’s struggle this year was affected by the Chinese government. Alibaba was hit with a record fine of $2.75 billion earlier in April. However, the worst could be over for the company as the Chinese government is slowly shifting its focus to the company’s competitors. So, if you have missed the boat on BABA stock prior to this, could this be the classic buy-on-dip opportunity?\nChewy Inc\nLast on this list, we have an e-commerce company that specializes in pet products, Chewy. In essence, it provides pet food and treats, pet supplies and pet medications, and other pet-health products, as well as pet services. Pet lovers out there could access all these products through its chewy.com retail website, and its mobile applications. The company stock may have been trading sideways since the start of the year. But, it has still climbed by over 70% over the past year.\n\nIn June, the company posted its first-quarter financial report that beat analysts’ expectations. Its net sales were $2.14 billion, growing 31.7% year-over-year. Meanwhile, its adjusted EBITDA came in at $77.4 million and its net income was $38.7 million. More importantly, Chewy added 600,000 active customers during the quarter which brings the number of active customers to 19.2 million. All in all, the company is growing in the right direction.\nFurthermore, Chewy also continues to innovate on their popular telehealth service, Connect with a Vet. May’s expansion includes the highly anticipated video consultation feature which allows pre-scheduling virtual vet consultation and extended hours of operation including weekends. With this, customers gain more accessibility to the company’s services and a better experience overall. With that in mind, would CHWY stock make your watchlist?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ETSY":0.9,"EBAY":0.9,"CHWY":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"BOTB.UK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154900329,"gmtCreate":1625464856161,"gmtModify":1633940414829,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls 🙏","listText":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls 🙏","text":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls 🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154900329","repostId":"1193340451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154077555,"gmtCreate":1625464834277,"gmtModify":1633940415398,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154077555","repostId":"1109703914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109703914","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625464355,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109703914?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-05 13:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股票市场是开放还是关闭？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109703914","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.It's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading i","content":"<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.</p><p><blockquote>对许多人来说，美国的独立日是野餐和海滩日。但今年7月4日是周日，这在美国不是交易日。</blockquote></p><p> So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?</p><p><blockquote>那么假期主要市场会开盘还是收盘呢？</blockquote></p><p> The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克将于7月5日星期一休市，以庆祝独立日。</blockquote></p><p> It's&nbsp;one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.</p><p><blockquote>这是今年股市九个完整休市日之一。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>例如，股市将于11月25日星期四感恩节休市。11月26日星期五，交易时间为半天多一点，上午9:30至下午1点。美国东部时间。</blockquote></p><p> Normal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>正常股票交易时间为上午9:30至下午4点。东部时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股票市场是开放还是关闭？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股票市场是开放还是关闭？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 13:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.</p><p><blockquote>对许多人来说，美国的独立日是野餐和海滩日。但今年7月4日是周日，这在美国不是交易日。</blockquote></p><p> So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?</p><p><blockquote>那么假期主要市场会开盘还是收盘呢？</blockquote></p><p> The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克将于7月5日星期一休市，以庆祝独立日。</blockquote></p><p> It's&nbsp;one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.</p><p><blockquote>这是今年股市九个完整休市日之一。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>例如，股市将于11月25日星期四感恩节休市。11月26日星期五，交易时间为半天多一点，上午9:30至下午1点。美国东部时间。</blockquote></p><p> Normal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>正常股票交易时间为上午9:30至下午4点。东部时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109703914","content_text":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.\nSo will the major markets open or close for the holiday?\nThe New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.\nIt's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.\nFor instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.\nNormal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152654872,"gmtCreate":1625290291796,"gmtModify":1633941675149,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls will do the same&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like pls will do the same&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like pls will do the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152654872","repostId":"1122056398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122056398","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625280707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122056398?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122056398","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good b","content":"<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎和橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎和橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RF":"地区金融","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司","ARCB":"ArcBest Corporation","NEM":"纽曼矿业","PATK":"Patrick Industries","SABR":"Sabre Corporation","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","MED":"快验保","MOS":"美国美盛","CRMT":"美国汽车行","ADNT":"Adient PLC","LCII":"LCI Industries","KBH":"KB Home","OGN":"Organon & Co"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122056398","content_text":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.\nThat’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.\nTo be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.\nJust the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.\nAs expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.\n\nAlso as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.\nHow to play the short-term reversal in July\nAs is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”\nBecause the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.\nFor anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.\nThe 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&P 500SPX.\n\nAdient PLC ADNT\nAlaska Air Group ALK\nAlliance Data Systems ADS\nAmerica’s Car Mart CRMT\nArcBest ARCB\nGoodyear Tire & Rubber GT\nKB Home KBH\nLCI Industries LCII\nMosaic & Co .MOS\nMedifast MED\nNewmont Corp. NEM\nOrganon & Co. OGN\nPatrick Industries PATK\nRegions Financial RF\nSabre SABR\n\nI also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ALK":0.9,"MED":0.9,"CRMT":0.9,"OGN":0.9,"GT":0.9,"KBH":0.9,"MOS":0.9,"PATK":0.9,"RF":0.9,"ARCB":0.9,"NEM":0.9,"SABR":0.9,"ADNT":0.9,"ADS":0.9,"LCII":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152655161,"gmtCreate":1625290200853,"gmtModify":1633941676063,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152655161","repostId":"1197906560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197906560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625285328,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197906560?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 12:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197906560","media":"Barron's","summary":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat ","content":"<p>On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，六月份的就业报告看起来几乎完美。在经历了几个月的失望之后，招聘超出了华尔街的预期——工资上涨，但速度低于春季的高水平。</blockquote></p><p> One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.</p><p><blockquote>人们可能会想宣布劳动力短缺已经结束，通胀辩论已经结束。但投资者现在还不应该上钩。尽管非农就业人数增加85万人不可否认是强劲的，但它掩盖了劳动力市场仍然受到供应问题的困扰。</blockquote></p><p> First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>首先，考虑一下上个月政府招聘人数增加了193,000人。这就是整个整体超出经济学家预期的原因。公司就业人数增加了66.2万人，这在正常情况下是不可思议的。然而，随着经济突然开放，接种疫苗的消费者花费了大流行期间储存的数万亿美元现金，这一数字仍远未达到经济学家在复苏阶段预期的100万美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Pantheon Macroeconomics的伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，私人就业人数远低于员工调度公司Homebase备受关注的数据所暗示的100万。</blockquote></p><p> Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>其次，尽管招聘情况有所改善，但6月份劳动力参与率持平。这一比率为61.6%，仍比大流行前的水平下降1.7个百分点。美联储官员表示正在关注的就业人口比率在6月份也没有变化；为58%，仍比疫情前水平低3.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.</p><p><blockquote>三是工资增速放缓具有欺骗性。较5月份增长0.3%看起来像是金发姑娘，足以推动持续支出，而不会加剧通胀担忧，随着劳动力、薯片和食品的短缺推高价格，通胀担忧一直在加剧。</blockquote></p><p> “If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)在谈到6月份工资增长时表示：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这低估了基本工资通胀率的真实水平。”她表示，在调整低工资休闲、酒店和零售工人的回归后，6月份平均时薪较5月份增长了0.5%。按照这一标准，它们比去年同期增长了4.5%。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的加德·莱瓦农(Gad Levanon)表示，过去三个月，随着公司追逐员工，总体工资年化上涨了6%。</blockquote></p><p> Further highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步凸显了一个事实，即招聘仍然受到供应而非需求的阻碍：今年按年计算，休闲和酒店工资上涨了12.3%，运输和仓储工资上涨了8%，零售工资上涨了5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>那么，投资者如何看待6月份的就业报告呢？没有。也就是说，最新数据无助于解决劳动力市场面临的最大问题。</blockquote></p><p> The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.</p><p><blockquote>暂时性因素——慷慨的失业救济金、儿童保育问题和Covid-19担忧——在多大程度上限制了招聘并推高了工资，几个月内还不清楚。学校需要重新开放，以解决阻碍在职父母的儿童保育问题，而增加的失业救济金需要到期，然后才能清楚这些福利在多大程度上让工人留在家里。</blockquote></p><p> While about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在联邦计划9月6日到期之前，大约有24个州已经开始削减或即将削减每周额外300美元的失业保险，但谢泼德森指出，70%的失业者不会受到这些提前终止的影响。由于6月份的报告对美联储没有任何影响，因此不应阻止股市的前进。</blockquote></p><p> At least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.</p><p><blockquote>至少现在是这样。谢泼德森说：“看到85万份工资单打印出来，你不会不高兴，但这还不够快。”特别是考虑到无数指标、求助标志和公司评论所证明的劳动力需求。“劳动力供应问题可能会自行解决，但也可能不会，”他说。“真正的问题是，我们最终可能会面临持续的工资通胀。”然而，政策制定者将在获得明确数据之前犹豫不决——而这要到11月份。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从现在到秋季的数据都是噪音。许多经济学家和投资者预计美联储将在下个月的杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上宣布缩减每月1200亿美元资产购买规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Not so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>谢泼德森说，没那么快。“这并不像市场希望的那样线性，杰克逊霍尔也不会清楚这一点，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> If that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是正确的——美联储要到秋季晚些时候才能及时获得制定缩减计划所需的数据——可能会出现更长时间的超宽松货币政策。这是假设官员们在实际开始撤回支持之前有时间电传计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Therein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到秋季，忽略噪音或就业数据的风险就在于此。如果学校复课和提高失业救济金的结束不能让工人回来，那么很明显，结构性问题正在发挥作用，工资通胀因此更加持久。正如谢泼德森所说，美联储很有可能不得不在2022年加息，因为人们很有可能不会重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该继续享受股市的涨幅。但他们也应该小心。等待明确的数据来显示劳动力短缺是否不仅仅是暂时的，这意味着政策制定者可能不得不比看起来更快更快地采取行动——特别是如果未来几个月出现像6月份dot这样具有欺骗性的平衡报告。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 12:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，六月份的就业报告看起来几乎完美。在经历了几个月的失望之后，招聘超出了华尔街的预期——工资上涨，但速度低于春季的高水平。</blockquote></p><p> One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.</p><p><blockquote>人们可能会想宣布劳动力短缺已经结束，通胀辩论已经结束。但投资者现在还不应该上钩。尽管非农就业人数增加85万人不可否认是强劲的，但它掩盖了劳动力市场仍然受到供应问题的困扰。</blockquote></p><p> First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>首先，考虑一下上个月政府招聘人数增加了193,000人。这就是整个整体超出经济学家预期的原因。公司就业人数增加了66.2万人，这在正常情况下是不可思议的。然而，随着经济突然开放，接种疫苗的消费者花费了大流行期间储存的数万亿美元现金，这一数字仍远未达到经济学家在复苏阶段预期的100万美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Pantheon Macroeconomics的伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，私人就业人数远低于员工调度公司Homebase备受关注的数据所暗示的100万。</blockquote></p><p> Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>其次，尽管招聘情况有所改善，但6月份劳动力参与率持平。这一比率为61.6%，仍比大流行前的水平下降1.7个百分点。美联储官员表示正在关注的就业人口比率在6月份也没有变化；为58%，仍比疫情前水平低3.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.</p><p><blockquote>三是工资增速放缓具有欺骗性。较5月份增长0.3%看起来像是金发姑娘，足以推动持续支出，而不会加剧通胀担忧，随着劳动力、薯片和食品的短缺推高价格，通胀担忧一直在加剧。</blockquote></p><p> “If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)在谈到6月份工资增长时表示：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这低估了基本工资通胀率的真实水平。”她表示，在调整低工资休闲、酒店和零售工人的回归后，6月份平均时薪较5月份增长了0.5%。按照这一标准，它们比去年同期增长了4.5%。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的加德·莱瓦农(Gad Levanon)表示，过去三个月，随着公司追逐员工，总体工资年化上涨了6%。</blockquote></p><p> Further highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步凸显了一个事实，即招聘仍然受到供应而非需求的阻碍：今年按年计算，休闲和酒店工资上涨了12.3%，运输和仓储工资上涨了8%，零售工资上涨了5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>那么，投资者如何看待6月份的就业报告呢？没有。也就是说，最新数据无助于解决劳动力市场面临的最大问题。</blockquote></p><p> The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.</p><p><blockquote>暂时性因素——慷慨的失业救济金、儿童保育问题和Covid-19担忧——在多大程度上限制了招聘并推高了工资，几个月内还不清楚。学校需要重新开放，以解决阻碍在职父母的儿童保育问题，而增加的失业救济金需要到期，然后才能清楚这些福利在多大程度上让工人留在家里。</blockquote></p><p> While about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在联邦计划9月6日到期之前，大约有24个州已经开始削减或即将削减每周额外300美元的失业保险，但谢泼德森指出，70%的失业者不会受到这些提前终止的影响。由于6月份的报告对美联储没有任何影响，因此不应阻止股市的前进。</blockquote></p><p> At least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.</p><p><blockquote>至少现在是这样。谢泼德森说：“看到85万份工资单打印出来，你不会不高兴，但这还不够快。”特别是考虑到无数指标、求助标志和公司评论所证明的劳动力需求。“劳动力供应问题可能会自行解决，但也可能不会，”他说。“真正的问题是，我们最终可能会面临持续的工资通胀。”然而，政策制定者将在获得明确数据之前犹豫不决——而这要到11月份。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从现在到秋季的数据都是噪音。许多经济学家和投资者预计美联储将在下个月的杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上宣布缩减每月1200亿美元资产购买规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Not so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>谢泼德森说，没那么快。“这并不像市场希望的那样线性，杰克逊霍尔也不会清楚这一点，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> If that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是正确的——美联储要到秋季晚些时候才能及时获得制定缩减计划所需的数据——可能会出现更长时间的超宽松货币政策。这是假设官员们在实际开始撤回支持之前有时间电传计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Therein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到秋季，忽略噪音或就业数据的风险就在于此。如果学校复课和提高失业救济金的结束不能让工人回来，那么很明显，结构性问题正在发挥作用，工资通胀因此更加持久。正如谢泼德森所说，美联储很有可能不得不在2022年加息，因为人们很有可能不会重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该继续享受股市的涨幅。但他们也应该小心。等待明确的数据来显示劳动力短缺是否不仅仅是暂时的，这意味着政策制定者可能不得不比看起来更快更快地采取行动——特别是如果未来几个月出现像6月份dot这样具有欺骗性的平衡报告。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197906560","content_text":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.\nOne might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.\nFirst, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.\nWhat’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.\nSecond, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.\nThird, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.\n“If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.\nFurther highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.\nSo, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.\nThe degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.\nWhile about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.\nAt least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.\nAll of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.\nNot so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.\nIf that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.\nTherein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.\nInvestors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152652422,"gmtCreate":1625290172966,"gmtModify":1633941676406,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls thx&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls thx&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like pls will do the same pls thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152652422","repostId":"1130764181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152652969,"gmtCreate":1625290045851,"gmtModify":1633941677257,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls will do the same&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like pls will do the same&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like pls will do the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152652969","repostId":"1140994998","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":152654872,"gmtCreate":1625290291796,"gmtModify":1633941675149,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls will do the same&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like pls will do the same&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like pls will do the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152654872","repostId":"1122056398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122056398","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625280707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122056398?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122056398","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good b","content":"<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎和橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎和橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RF":"地区金融","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司","ARCB":"ArcBest Corporation","NEM":"纽曼矿业","PATK":"Patrick Industries","SABR":"Sabre Corporation","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","MED":"快验保","MOS":"美国美盛","CRMT":"美国汽车行","ADNT":"Adient PLC","LCII":"LCI Industries","KBH":"KB Home","OGN":"Organon & Co"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122056398","content_text":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.\nThat’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.\nTo be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.\nJust the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.\nAs expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.\n\nAlso as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.\nHow to play the short-term reversal in July\nAs is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”\nBecause the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.\nFor anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.\nThe 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&P 500SPX.\n\nAdient PLC ADNT\nAlaska Air Group ALK\nAlliance Data Systems ADS\nAmerica’s Car Mart CRMT\nArcBest ARCB\nGoodyear Tire & Rubber GT\nKB Home KBH\nLCI Industries LCII\nMosaic & Co .MOS\nMedifast MED\nNewmont Corp. NEM\nOrganon & Co. OGN\nPatrick Industries PATK\nRegions Financial RF\nSabre SABR\n\nI also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ALK":0.9,"MED":0.9,"CRMT":0.9,"OGN":0.9,"GT":0.9,"KBH":0.9,"MOS":0.9,"PATK":0.9,"RF":0.9,"ARCB":0.9,"NEM":0.9,"SABR":0.9,"ADNT":0.9,"ADS":0.9,"LCII":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124262369,"gmtCreate":1624767566751,"gmtModify":1633948843796,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like ill do the same","listText":"Comment and like ill do the same","text":"Comment and like ill do the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124262369","repostId":"1104974895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104974895","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624764940,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104974895?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到2万亿美元。还没做完呢。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104974895","media":"Barrons","summary":"Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,wh","content":"<p>Microsoft&nbsp;is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following&nbsp;Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.</p><p><blockquote>微软现在是继去年8月突破这一水平的苹果之后第二家市值达到2万亿美元的公司。微软可能会走得更高。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯(Daniel Ives)上周重申了对这家软件巨头的跑赢大盘评级，将该股目标价从310美元上调至325美元。这意味着潜在涨幅超过20%，这将使该公司的市值达到2.4万亿美元。他对该股的热情是由微软的云业务Azure推动的。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”</p><p><blockquote>周三，微软股价小幅上涨0.1%，至265.79美元，创下新高，市值增至2.004万亿美元。（苹果的市值约为2.2万亿美元。）Ives指出，6月份的渠道检查发现对Azure的需求有所改善。“Azure云的增长故事正在进入下一个增长阶段，”他写道。“随着企业范围内数字化转型的加速，我们看到交易规模继续显着增加，首席信息官都专注于让各自的企业为云驱动架构做好准备。”</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.</p><p><blockquote>Ives写道，华尔街担心云增长将因疫情而放缓，这与微软看到的交易活动背道而驰，并指出6月份季度的业绩似乎“强劲”。他认为微软在将其已安装的应用程序基础向云的转换方面仍仅完成了约35%。</blockquote></p><p> Ives sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”</p><p><blockquote>Ives认为持续的全球“数字化转型”是一个1万亿美元的机会，并表示微软将不成比例地受益。“微软仍然是我们最喜欢的大盘云股票，我们相信该股将在未来几个季度开始走高……”他写道。“微软的增长故事并没有放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e4bb0961389beaa2711931e02dc060\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"672\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a62e0638b1f4f9c28301e4d93721571\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"684\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到2万亿美元。还没做完呢。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到2万亿美元。还没做完呢。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Microsoft&nbsp;is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following&nbsp;Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.</p><p><blockquote>微软现在是继去年8月突破这一水平的苹果之后第二家市值达到2万亿美元的公司。微软可能会走得更高。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯(Daniel Ives)上周重申了对这家软件巨头的跑赢大盘评级，将该股目标价从310美元上调至325美元。这意味着潜在涨幅超过20%，这将使该公司的市值达到2.4万亿美元。他对该股的热情是由微软的云业务Azure推动的。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”</p><p><blockquote>周三，微软股价小幅上涨0.1%，至265.79美元，创下新高，市值增至2.004万亿美元。（苹果的市值约为2.2万亿美元。）Ives指出，6月份的渠道检查发现对Azure的需求有所改善。“Azure云的增长故事正在进入下一个增长阶段，”他写道。“随着企业范围内数字化转型的加速，我们看到交易规模继续显着增加，首席信息官都专注于让各自的企业为云驱动架构做好准备。”</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.</p><p><blockquote>Ives写道，华尔街担心云增长将因疫情而放缓，这与微软看到的交易活动背道而驰，并指出6月份季度的业绩似乎“强劲”。他认为微软在将其已安装的应用程序基础向云的转换方面仍仅完成了约35%。</blockquote></p><p> Ives sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”</p><p><blockquote>Ives认为持续的全球“数字化转型”是一个1万亿美元的机会，并表示微软将不成比例地受益。“微软仍然是我们最喜欢的大盘云股票，我们相信该股将在未来几个季度开始走高……”他写道。“微软的增长故事并没有放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e4bb0961389beaa2711931e02dc060\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"672\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a62e0638b1f4f9c28301e4d93721571\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"684\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-market-cap-51624670572?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-market-cap-51624670572?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104974895","content_text":"Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.\nWedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.\nOn Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”\nWall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.\nIves sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124268470,"gmtCreate":1624767525790,"gmtModify":1633948845199,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like ill do the same","listText":"Comment and like ill do the same","text":"Comment and like ill do the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124268470","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146848060,"gmtCreate":1626069912650,"gmtModify":1633930433074,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment will do the same pls thx&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment will do the same pls thx&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment will do the same pls thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146848060","repostId":"1114863871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154909304,"gmtCreate":1625464921808,"gmtModify":1633940414116,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls will do the same&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like pls will do the same&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like pls will do the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154909304","repostId":"1179512141","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147186448,"gmtCreate":1626341745184,"gmtModify":1633927705648,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please will do the same tyty","listText":"Like and comment please will do the same tyty","text":"Like and comment please will do the same tyty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147186448","repostId":"2151751740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140134066,"gmtCreate":1625636341355,"gmtModify":1633938829755,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Help to comment and like will do the same thank you","listText":"Help to comment and like will do the same thank you","text":"Help to comment and like will do the same thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140134066","repostId":"1163143630","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159677245,"gmtCreate":1624967405487,"gmtModify":1633946447596,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls will do the same thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like pls will do the same thanks&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like pls will do the same thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159677245","repostId":"2146388793","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124262655,"gmtCreate":1624767584077,"gmtModify":1633948843572,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like ill do the same","listText":"Comment and like ill do the same","text":"Comment and like ill do the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124262655","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。如果你仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。如果你仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124268120,"gmtCreate":1624767508760,"gmtModify":1633948845666,"author":{"id":"3575450514388817","authorId":"3575450514388817","name":"billgoat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc76a7fc5977bef70d009c633f1ce4c4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575450514388817","idStr":"3575450514388817"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like ill do the same","listText":"Comment and like ill do the same","text":"Comment and like ill do the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124268120","repostId":"2146090006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}