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VicVic3527

VicVic3527

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2021-05-17

Watch!

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2021-05-15

To the moon! Like please thanks

Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>

2021-05-14

Buy the dip!

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2021-05-12

Liars!

Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的 “弥天大谎”：业绩说法越来越令人难以置信</blockquote>

2021-05-11

Tech always kena... Sad

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2021-05-10

Disney! Mickey Mouse to the moon!

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2021-05-09

Sweet home alabama!

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2021-05-08

Crypto all the way

What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>

2021-05-07

Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree

Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>

2021-05-05

SNL

Why is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币的价格为何飙升？2021 年加密货币飙升 11,000%</blockquote>

2021-05-04

Big split.

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2021-05-03

Watch list

Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司、通用汽车等投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>

2021-05-02

Smart man.

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2021-05-01

Anti trust laws protect against monopoly

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2021-04-30

Amaaaazon!

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2021-04-29

Amazon!

Amazon Earnings Will Be Fantastic. What That Means for the Stock.<blockquote>亚马逊的盈利将会非常出色。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>

2021-04-28

Big fight ahead!

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2021-04-27

Moony moon! Like like please thanks!

Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创历史新高 4.38 亿美元，收入激增 74%</blockquote>

2021-04-26

NFT are da bomb now! Like and share for me?

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2021-04-25

Like meee

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the moon! Like please thanks&nbsp;","listText":"To the moon! Like please thanks&nbsp;","text":"To the moon! Like please thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196690323","repostId":"1163454382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163454382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621004581,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1163454382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163454382","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million. First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinat","content":"<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC 投资者有理由在再次融资后更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的上涨是在该公司宣布筹集 4.28 亿美元之后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）就当前的健康和安全协议发表了一份新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持物理距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这应该可以让电影院满负荷重新开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影观众的理想目的地。也是昨天，<b>华特·迪士尼</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：DIS）公布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克 (Bob Chapek) 指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是个好消息，但迪士尼也报告了其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>较低的流媒体订阅可能是影院业务的一个积极迹象。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，随着疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在室内聚集人群，不戴口罩，剧院上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动中。经过一年多的在家观看，电影院可能会成为最受欢迎的目的地。在再次融资之后，AMC 投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC 投资者有理由在再次融资后更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的上涨是在该公司宣布筹集 4.28 亿美元之后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）就当前的健康和安全协议发表了一份新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持物理距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这应该可以让电影院满负荷重新开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影观众的理想目的地。也是昨天，<b>华特·迪士尼</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：DIS）公布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克 (Bob Chapek) 指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是个好消息，但迪士尼也报告了其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>较低的流媒体订阅可能是影院业务的一个积极迹象。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，随着疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在室内聚集人群，不戴口罩，剧院上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动中。经过一年多的在家观看，电影院可能会成为最受欢迎的目的地。在再次融资之后，AMC 投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163454382","content_text":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.\n\nWhat happened\nA day afterAMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC)\nSo what\nYesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million\nFirst, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.\nThis should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.\nNow what\nLower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.\nVaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198797359,"gmtCreate":1620988930071,"gmtModify":1634194757317,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy the dip!&nbsp;","listText":"Buy the dip!&nbsp;","text":"Buy the dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198797359","repostId":"2135945620","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193791116,"gmtCreate":1620817258735,"gmtModify":1634196099810,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Liars!&nbsp;","listText":"Liars!&nbsp;","text":"Liars!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193791116","repostId":"1174599088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174599088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620814183,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1174599088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 18:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点： 华尔街的 “弥天大谎”： 业绩说法越来越令人难以置信</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174599088","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of ma","content":"<p><b>So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?</b>I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.</p><p><blockquote><b>所以你认为让你的钱乘以10倍很容易？</b>我指的是一种宣传技巧，它的说法如此离谱，以至于人们认为其中一定有一定的道理。小谎言被驳回，但大谎言被相信。</blockquote></p><p>Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: <i>“</i>Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”</p><p><blockquote>想想我收件箱里这个周末引起我注意的点击诱饵：<i>“</i>有了这种加密货币，你的钱就能轻松翻10倍。”这篇文章引起我注意的一个原因是，它的作者是一个人，他在三个月前写了一篇类似的引人注目的文章，题为 “用这种加密货币让你的钱翻 100 倍”。</blockquote></p><p>The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.</p><p><blockquote>他在2月份支持的特定加密货币今天下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p>For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道这个人是否故意歪曲事实。但事实仍然是，无论是股票还是比特币和其他加密货币等投资，没有人产生超过两位数百分比的长期年化回报率。</blockquote></p><p>No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.</p><p><blockquote>没人。声称产生 10 倍或 100 倍的回报 “很容易 ”在功能上等同于撒谎--即使提出这种说法的人并不想这样做。</blockquote></p><p>That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说三位数甚至四位数的回报率不是偶尔--非常偶尔--产生的。但拉斯维加斯的头奖也是如此。因为即使有可能产生如此巨大的短期收益的策略也是极其危险的，回归均值将不可避免地迅速将这种回报带回现实。</blockquote></p><p>Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>想想我四十年来跟踪投资时事通讯表现的证据。随附的图表报告了受监控时事通讯中在不同持有期内最高的投资组合回报。在过去的12个月里，记分牌上的最高回报率是248%。相比之下，将持有期延长至过去五年，记分牌顶部的回报率要低得多，年化收益率为 33%。</blockquote></p><p>This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>如图所示，随着持有期的延长，这种下降趋势仍在继续。当我们关注过去 40 年时，最好的年化回报率是 14.0%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e72f13ee9de2c745913ad0debd3b6c0\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.</p><p><blockquote>不要认为这种模式是投资通讯行业独有的。共同基金和对冲基金也出现了几乎相同的结果。</blockquote></p><p>The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，记录最好的长期回报是由文艺复兴科技公司的私人奖章基金产生的。加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授 Brad Cornell 报告称，该基金在 1988 年至 2018 年间的年化回报率（扣除费用后）为 39.2%，而标普500指数的年化回报率为 10.0%，因此该基金的回报率远远好于华尔街上的任何其他基金，以至于康奈尔承认自己 “目瞪口呆”；他说，回归在功能上相当于 “太阳从西方升起”。</blockquote></p><p>And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>然而，请注意，Medallion 基金的年化回报率 “仅为 ”39%。这距离加密货币 “轻松 ”获得 100 倍回报还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p>If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是婴儿潮一代，你已经知道并接受了这些教训。相比之下，如果你是 Z 世代，那么严厉的打击学校还没有教给你这些课程。</blockquote></p><p>I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，我专门写了一篇专栏文章，探讨牛市后期年龄和冒险行为之间的相关性。在最年轻的投资者经历第一次大熊市之前，他们都是无所畏惧的冒险家，坚信赚钱很容易。经历过一次或多次严重熊市的老年投资者年纪更大、更聪明。</blockquote></p><p>This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)</p><p><blockquote>评论在线赌场的网站GamblersPick最近的一份报告再次证实了这种对比。该网站调查了872名投资者的风险承受能力；受访者在下表中列出的四代人中几乎平均分配。(表格中百分比中未反映的人的余额表明他们是 “中立的”，既不容忍风险，也不厌恶风险）。</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Generation</td><td>Risk-tolerant</td><td>Risk-averse</td></tr><tr><td>Gen Z</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Millennials</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>Gen X</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Baby boomers and older</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>代</td><td>风险承受能力</td><td>规避风险</td></tr><tr><td>Z世代</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>千禧一代</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>X世代</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>婴儿潮一代及以上</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>根据我的经验，再多的学术教育（“书本知识”）也无法完全取代从熊市中实际生活中学到的东西。这意味着，如今敢于承受风险的年轻投资者有朝一日也会成为我们今天看来的老油条。</blockquote></p><p>In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他们和市场都如履薄冰。虽然我们不知道未来几个月牛市的故事将如何展开，但我们知道它最终将如何结束。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not a happy one.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一个快乐的人。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点： 华尔街的 “弥天大谎”： 业绩说法越来越令人难以置信</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点： 华尔街的 “弥天大谎”： 业绩说法越来越令人难以置信</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-12 18:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?</b>I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.</p><p><blockquote><b>所以你认为让你的钱乘以10倍很容易？</b>我指的是一种宣传技巧，它的说法如此离谱，以至于人们认为其中一定有一定的道理。小谎言被驳回，但大谎言被相信。</blockquote></p><p>Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: <i>“</i>Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”</p><p><blockquote>想想我收件箱里这个周末引起我注意的点击诱饵：<i>“</i>有了这种加密货币，你的钱就能轻松翻10倍。”这篇文章引起我注意的一个原因是，它的作者是一个人，他在三个月前写了一篇类似的引人注目的文章，题为 “用这种加密货币让你的钱翻 100 倍”。</blockquote></p><p>The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.</p><p><blockquote>他在2月份支持的特定加密货币今天下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p>For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道这个人是否故意歪曲事实。但事实仍然是，无论是股票还是比特币和其他加密货币等投资，没有人产生超过两位数百分比的长期年化回报率。</blockquote></p><p>No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.</p><p><blockquote>没人。声称产生 10 倍或 100 倍的回报 “很容易 ”在功能上等同于撒谎--即使提出这种说法的人并不想这样做。</blockquote></p><p>That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说三位数甚至四位数的回报率不是偶尔--非常偶尔--产生的。但拉斯维加斯的头奖也是如此。因为即使有可能产生如此巨大的短期收益的策略也是极其危险的，回归均值将不可避免地迅速将这种回报带回现实。</blockquote></p><p>Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>想想我四十年来跟踪投资时事通讯表现的证据。随附的图表报告了受监控时事通讯中在不同持有期内最高的投资组合回报。在过去的12个月里，记分牌上的最高回报率是248%。相比之下，将持有期延长至过去五年，记分牌顶部的回报率要低得多，年化收益率为 33%。</blockquote></p><p>This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>如图所示，随着持有期的延长，这种下降趋势仍在继续。当我们关注过去 40 年时，最好的年化回报率是 14.0%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e72f13ee9de2c745913ad0debd3b6c0\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.</p><p><blockquote>不要认为这种模式是投资通讯行业独有的。共同基金和对冲基金也出现了几乎相同的结果。</blockquote></p><p>The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，记录最好的长期回报是由文艺复兴科技公司的私人奖章基金产生的。加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授 Brad Cornell 报告称，该基金在 1988 年至 2018 年间的年化回报率（扣除费用后）为 39.2%，而标普500指数的年化回报率为 10.0%，因此该基金的回报率远远好于华尔街上的任何其他基金，以至于康奈尔承认自己 “目瞪口呆”；他说，回归在功能上相当于 “太阳从西方升起”。</blockquote></p><p>And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>然而，请注意，Medallion 基金的年化回报率 “仅为 ”39%。这距离加密货币 “轻松 ”获得 100 倍回报还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p>If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是婴儿潮一代，你已经知道并接受了这些教训。相比之下，如果你是 Z 世代，那么严厉的打击学校还没有教给你这些课程。</blockquote></p><p>I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，我专门写了一篇专栏文章，探讨牛市后期年龄和冒险行为之间的相关性。在最年轻的投资者经历第一次大熊市之前，他们都是无所畏惧的冒险家，坚信赚钱很容易。经历过一次或多次严重熊市的老年投资者年纪更大、更聪明。</blockquote></p><p>This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)</p><p><blockquote>评论在线赌场的网站GamblersPick最近的一份报告再次证实了这种对比。该网站调查了872名投资者的风险承受能力；受访者在下表中列出的四代人中几乎平均分配。(表格中百分比中未反映的人的余额表明他们是 “中立的”，既不容忍风险，也不厌恶风险）。</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Generation</td><td>Risk-tolerant</td><td>Risk-averse</td></tr><tr><td>Gen Z</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Millennials</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>Gen X</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Baby boomers and older</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>代</td><td>风险承受能力</td><td>规避风险</td></tr><tr><td>Z世代</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>千禧一代</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>X世代</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>婴儿潮一代及以上</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>根据我的经验，再多的学术教育（“书本知识”）也无法完全取代从熊市中实际生活中学到的东西。这意味着，如今敢于承受风险的年轻投资者有朝一日也会成为我们今天看来的老油条。</blockquote></p><p>In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他们和市场都如履薄冰。虽然我们不知道未来几个月牛市的故事将如何展开，但我们知道它最终将如何结束。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not a happy one.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一个快乐的人。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174599088","content_text":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: “Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&P 500 index That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)GenerationRisk-tolerantRisk-averseGen Z57%25%Millennials49%32%Gen X38%44%Baby boomers and older36%46%In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.It’s not a happy one.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199474267,"gmtCreate":1620731315159,"gmtModify":1634196780866,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tech always kena... Sad","listText":"Tech always kena... Sad","text":"Tech always kena... Sad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199474267","repostId":"2134551566","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190625194,"gmtCreate":1620617508418,"gmtModify":1634197649134,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Disney! Mickey Mouse to the moon!&nbsp;","listText":"Disney! Mickey Mouse to the moon!&nbsp;","text":"Disney! Mickey Mouse to the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190625194","repostId":"2134686276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107706927,"gmtCreate":1620535238469,"gmtModify":1634198175803,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet home alabama!&nbsp;","listText":"Sweet home alabama!&nbsp;","text":"Sweet home alabama!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107706927","repostId":"1123825898","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107893564,"gmtCreate":1620460402858,"gmtModify":1634198573889,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Crypto all the way","listText":"Crypto all the way","text":"Crypto all the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107893564","repostId":"1122089368","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122089368","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620457397,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122089368?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122089368","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are t","content":"<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的事情。股票估值是自 2000 年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来最低的利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政润滑增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但有一个最重要的驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中一直将利率维持在接近于零的水平，并表示利率至少在未来两年内不会发生变化。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀率——也就是说，实际收益率严重为负——这只是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取了行动来应对疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候造成的破坏甚至比 2007-09 年金融危机还要大。然而，在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会破坏如此低利率的原因，威胁到市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>“哈佛大学经济学家杰里米-斯坦（Jeremy Stein）说：”在假设利率将长期处于低位的情况下，股市在最低点的定价是完美的。他曾与现任主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）一起担任美联储理事。“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，'一切都很好，我们并不急于加息'。不过，虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但我们完全有可能在几个季度内看到通胀数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持在极低的情况下，股票的估值才是合理的，那么如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通货膨胀，而债券收益率上升 1 到 1.5 个百分点，股票如何重新定价？“资产价格可能会出现严重调整”。</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前来过这里。上世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司（Long-Term Capital Management）濒临倒闭，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为一种隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策随后被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为他们的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）将损害他们低失业率和低通胀的主要目标，并且比让泡沫自行破裂造成更大的危害。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告说，资产 “估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4 月 28 日，鲍威尔先生承认市场看起来 “有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一： “我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种和经济重新开放有很大关系”。但他没有暗示美联储即将缩减刺激计划： “经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走”。美国劳工部周五发布的一份报告显示，4 月份新增就业岗位远低于华尔街预期，这凸显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储将利率降至接近于零并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正在应对强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储 2% 的目标以下。人口老龄化等根深蒂固的力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，这种组合被一些人称为 “长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机更严重。但两个月后，随着限制的放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的要早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币机会仍然敞开。去年 5 月，民主党人首次提出额外 3 万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降 6%。它实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党人在赢得白宫和国会后，推动了同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场运作正常，它延长了该计划，同时将基本原理转向保持较低的债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于 2% 之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回 2%，而且推高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都将稳定在 2%。为此，它承诺在恢复充分就业、通货膨胀率为 2% 并继续走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在 2024 年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然利润预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据 FactSet 的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的 22 倍，这一水平只有在 2000 年互联网繁荣鼎盛时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。彭博巴克莱数据显示，投资者愿意以至少自 1995 年以来最低的收益率以及自 2007 年以来最窄的高于安全国债的利差购买垃圾级公司债券。经通货膨胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策正在按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这对利润、住房需求和企业信誉都有好处；以及对风险的偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率已不足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司获得了更高的估值。这些估值并不是现金流或利润前景优越的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>传统估值对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币，成为交易媒介和价值储存手段。加密货币交易所 Coinbase GlobalInc. 的首次公开募股招股说明书称：“加密货币有潜力像互联网一样具有革命性和广泛采用。”根据信息服务机构 CoinDesk 的数据，截至 4 月 29 日，加密货币价值超过 2 万亿美元，大致相当于所有流通中的美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在 1987 年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20 世纪 90 年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，21 世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。如今，相当于零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行财团国际清算银行（Bank for International Settlements）最近的一份报告，这类投资者对整体市场的走向产生了越来越大的影响。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，追踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量已经攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基本业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票--例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测通常归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激并非如此。金融研究公司 Bianco Research 的负责人吉姆·比安科 (Jim Bianco) 表示，随着财政部发放 1,400 美元的刺激支票，3 月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“比安科先生说：”你用支票做的第一件事就是把它存入你的账户，到 2021 年，这就是你的经纪账户。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>我们无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此： 高价股票最终可能会获得必要的利润，以证明今天的估值是合理的，尤其是在目前经济处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机活动可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在许多竞争对手都声称要做同样的事情。 TeslaInc 曾经是您可以购买的唯一一只押注电动汽车的股票；现在有中国的蔚来公司、尼古拉公司和菲斯克公司，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商了，它们正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。四月份的就业失望提醒人们，经济前景依然不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能。不能排除金融危机与某种隐藏的脆弱性有关。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，抵押贷款承销如此紧张，以至于类似于 2007-09 年金融危机（始于抵押贷款违约）的情况似乎不太可能发生。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，那么它们的价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management 最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷款人造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到它们的生存，也没有引发对类似情况的公司的传染。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就留下了通货膨胀。由于半导体、木材和工人短缺，对通货膨胀的担忧现在很普遍，都给价格和成本带来了上行压力。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复正常，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，普通债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的平均通胀率约为 2.5%。这几乎不是 20 世纪 70 年代的重演，也符合美联储提出的长期平均通胀率 2% 的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显突破过去十年低于2%的范围。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略有上升将导致美联储将短期利率设定得也略有上升，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往走向相反的方向。这是因为，当通货膨胀不令人担忧时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了针对股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，收益率就会上升。现任对冲基金 D.E. 的前美联储经济学家布莱恩·萨克 (Brian Sack) 表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股票与债券的相关性开始消失。肖有限公司。他将这部分归因于通货膨胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融格局，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀永远不会再产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但是，如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地将经济从过去十年的模式中拉出来，那么这种自满情绪可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的事情。股票估值是自 2000 年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来最低的利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政润滑增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但有一个最重要的驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中一直将利率维持在接近于零的水平，并表示利率至少在未来两年内不会发生变化。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀率——也就是说，实际收益率严重为负——这只是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取了行动来应对疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候造成的破坏甚至比 2007-09 年金融危机还要大。然而，在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会破坏如此低利率的原因，威胁到市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>“哈佛大学经济学家杰里米-斯坦（Jeremy Stein）说：”在假设利率将长期处于低位的情况下，股市在最低点的定价是完美的。他曾与现任主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）一起担任美联储理事。“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，'一切都很好，我们并不急于加息'。不过，虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但我们完全有可能在几个季度内看到通胀数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持在极低的情况下，股票的估值才是合理的，那么如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通货膨胀，而债券收益率上升 1 到 1.5 个百分点，股票如何重新定价？“资产价格可能会出现严重调整”。</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前来过这里。上世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司（Long-Term Capital Management）濒临倒闭，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为一种隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策随后被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为他们的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）将损害他们低失业率和低通胀的主要目标，并且比让泡沫自行破裂造成更大的危害。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告说，资产 “估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4 月 28 日，鲍威尔先生承认市场看起来 “有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一： “我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种和经济重新开放有很大关系”。但他没有暗示美联储即将缩减刺激计划： “经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走”。美国劳工部周五发布的一份报告显示，4 月份新增就业岗位远低于华尔街预期，这凸显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储将利率降至接近于零并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正在应对强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储 2% 的目标以下。人口老龄化等根深蒂固的力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，这种组合被一些人称为 “长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机更严重。但两个月后，随着限制的放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的要早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币机会仍然敞开。去年 5 月，民主党人首次提出额外 3 万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降 6%。它实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党人在赢得白宫和国会后，推动了同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场运作正常，它延长了该计划，同时将基本原理转向保持较低的债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于 2% 之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回 2%，而且推高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都将稳定在 2%。为此，它承诺在恢复充分就业、通货膨胀率为 2% 并继续走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在 2024 年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然利润预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据 FactSet 的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的 22 倍，这一水平只有在 2000 年互联网繁荣鼎盛时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。彭博巴克莱数据显示，投资者愿意以至少自 1995 年以来最低的收益率以及自 2007 年以来最窄的高于安全国债的利差购买垃圾级公司债券。经通货膨胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策正在按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这对利润、住房需求和企业信誉都有好处；以及对风险的偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率已不足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司获得了更高的估值。这些估值并不是现金流或利润前景优越的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>传统估值对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币，成为交易媒介和价值储存手段。加密货币交易所 Coinbase GlobalInc. 的首次公开募股招股说明书称：“加密货币有潜力像互联网一样具有革命性和广泛采用。”根据信息服务机构 CoinDesk 的数据，截至 4 月 29 日，加密货币价值超过 2 万亿美元，大致相当于所有流通中的美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在 1987 年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20 世纪 90 年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，21 世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。如今，相当于零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行财团国际清算银行（Bank for International Settlements）最近的一份报告，这类投资者对整体市场的走向产生了越来越大的影响。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，追踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量已经攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基本业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票--例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测通常归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激并非如此。金融研究公司 Bianco Research 的负责人吉姆·比安科 (Jim Bianco) 表示，随着财政部发放 1,400 美元的刺激支票，3 月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“比安科先生说：”你用支票做的第一件事就是把它存入你的账户，到 2021 年，这就是你的经纪账户。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>我们无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此： 高价股票最终可能会获得必要的利润，以证明今天的估值是合理的，尤其是在目前经济处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机活动可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在许多竞争对手都声称要做同样的事情。 TeslaInc 曾经是您可以购买的唯一一只押注电动汽车的股票；现在有中国的蔚来公司、尼古拉公司和菲斯克公司，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商了，它们正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。四月份的就业失望提醒人们，经济前景依然不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能。不能排除金融危机与某种隐藏的脆弱性有关。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，抵押贷款承销如此紧张，以至于类似于 2007-09 年金融危机（始于抵押贷款违约）的情况似乎不太可能发生。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，那么它们的价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management 最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷款人造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到它们的生存，也没有引发对类似情况的公司的传染。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就留下了通货膨胀。由于半导体、木材和工人短缺，对通货膨胀的担忧现在很普遍，都给价格和成本带来了上行压力。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复正常，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，普通债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的平均通胀率约为 2.5%。这几乎不是 20 世纪 70 年代的重演，也符合美联储提出的长期平均通胀率 2% 的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显突破过去十年低于2%的范围。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略有上升将导致美联储将短期利率设定得也略有上升，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往走向相反的方向。这是因为，当通货膨胀不令人担忧时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了针对股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，收益率就会上升。现任对冲基金 D.E. 的前美联储经济学家布莱恩·萨克 (Brian Sack) 表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股票与债券的相关性开始消失。肖有限公司。他将这部分归因于通货膨胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融格局，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀永远不会再产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但是，如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地将经济从过去十年的模式中拉出来，那么这种自满情绪可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122089368","content_text":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”‘A bit frothy’The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.Running of the bullsThis injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.Facing the futureIt’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104176815,"gmtCreate":1620368689637,"gmtModify":1634205710312,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree&nbsp;","listText":"Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree&nbsp;","text":"Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104176815","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157328258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620360165,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1157328258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157328258","media":"Seeking alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至尚未进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于 DCF 的亚马逊股价目标表明有 30% 的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上一季度的业绩介绍了我对亚马逊 (AMZN) 的全面分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1 价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊的增长在上一季度是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”细分市场的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了近乎线性的趋势。现在，它已经成倍增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场 - 加速依然存在，上一季度的业绩好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）分部也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘亚马逊网络服务’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的业绩来看，有逐渐恢复到之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的收入也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计学上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键分部</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去的10年里，亚马逊的资本化与其收入一直处于定性的线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>大家可以看到，首先，这个模型表明公司目前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%的增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2 比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一节中，我根据收入模拟了亚马逊的平衡价格。值得注意的是，如果我们对公司使用倍数的比较估值应用同样的方法，我们将失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数，可以成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3 贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我还从分析师对该公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，营业利润率在最后一年逐步增加到8%是一个非常现实的场景。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用股票风险溢价（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。对于最后一年，我使用了等于1的Beta。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用了2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>这是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>基于 DCF 的亚马逊股票目标价为 4,280 美元，上涨空间为 29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至尚未进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段，并不意味着其资本化不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，该公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的 DCF 模型分析师表明估值被低估了 30%。今年年初，一个类似的模型表明估值被低估了 20%。</li><li>当你看到亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至尚未进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于 DCF 的亚马逊股价目标表明有 30% 的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上一季度的业绩介绍了我对亚马逊 (AMZN) 的全面分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1 价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊的增长在上一季度是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”细分市场的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了近乎线性的趋势。现在，它已经成倍增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场 - 加速依然存在，上一季度的业绩好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）分部也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘亚马逊网络服务’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的业绩来看，有逐渐恢复到之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的收入也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计学上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键分部</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去的10年里，亚马逊的资本化与其收入一直处于定性的线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>大家可以看到，首先，这个模型表明公司目前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%的增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2 比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一节中，我根据收入模拟了亚马逊的平衡价格。值得注意的是，如果我们对公司使用倍数的比较估值应用同样的方法，我们将失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数，可以成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3 贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我还从分析师对该公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，营业利润率在最后一年逐步增加到8%是一个非常现实的场景。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用股票风险溢价（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。对于最后一年，我使用了等于1的Beta。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用了2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>这是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>基于 DCF 的亚马逊股票目标价为 4,280 美元，上涨空间为 29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至尚未进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段，并不意味着其资本化不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，该公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的 DCF 模型分析师表明估值被低估了 30%。今年年初，一个类似的模型表明估值被低估了 20%。</li><li>当你看到亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company\">Seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157328258","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.#1 Price vs. GrowthFirst of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comGeographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comSo, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growthin all key segments. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThere is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comBased on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is alreadybelow the balanced level. And secondly, it assumes a25% growthin capitalization in the next four quarters.#2 Comparative ValuationIn the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.#3 Discounted Cash Flow ModelWhen predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:Source: Seeking Alpha ProWhen predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:Source: AuthorSome explanations:In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.Here is the model itself:(In high resolution)Source: AuthorThe DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.Final thoughtsAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company isundervalued.Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company ismuch cheaperthan the market.DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102676216,"gmtCreate":1620213011835,"gmtModify":1634206959002,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"SNL","listText":"SNL","text":"SNL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102676216","repostId":"1115203133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115203133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620178775,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115203133?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-05 09:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币的价格为何飙升？2021 年加密货币飙升 11,000%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115203133","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"Every dog has its day…but a whole year?Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image ","content":"<p>Every dog has its day…but a whole year?</p><p><blockquote>每只狗都有它的一天…但是一整年呢？</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，狗狗币（dogecoin）是一种与柴犬狗图像相关的迷因加密货币，它正在享受近年来加密货币最好的一年之一，今年迄今为止的涨幅超过11,000%，并跻身今年最有价值的十大数字资产之列。</blockquote></p><p>At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据 CoinDesk 的数据，在上次检查时，dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26% 的易手价格为 54 美分，在过去 24 小时内上涨超过 23%，2021 年迄今为止上涨了约 11,210%。</blockquote></p><p>That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛物线般的上涨吸引了掌声和担忧，因为其支持者的目标是将模仿硬币的价值推至接近 1 美元，批评者警告说，这种资产具有资产泡沫的所有特征，注定会破裂并留下大屠杀。</blockquote></p><p>Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7201d3eb982c0d5d636bf8ff4a1ca7\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,”&nbsp;on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>只是，不要把这句话告诉那些为加密货币欢呼的人，否则可能会听到这句常见的话： “享受贫穷吧”。那么，为什么发音为 “dōj-coin ”的狗狗币会遭受如此巨大的冲击，甚至超过了被认为是数字资产和区块链时代更严肃的代表的加密货币呢？以下是几个原因：</blockquote></p><p>Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’</p><p><blockquote>其最大的助推器将是嘉宾主持《周六夜现场》</blockquote></p><p>Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers&nbsp;for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司和 SpaceX 的首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）将于本周末主持《周六夜现场》（Saturday Night Live），该节目已经为这位技术专家赢得了欢呼和嘲笑。他已经成为今年狗狗币最突出、最直言不讳的冠军之一，一些人猜测他可以做些什么来推广doge。</blockquote></p><p>Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.</p><p><blockquote>在《周六夜现场》演出之前，马斯克在最近的一条推特上确实称自己为 “狗爹”。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a1a1602240507ad985c5efcb2571f5\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Brokerages trade dogecoin</p><p><blockquote>经纪商交易狗狗币</blockquote></p><p>A number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.</p><p><blockquote>一些新的场所已经宣布，他们将在最近几天和几周内在他们的交易所交易狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform&nbsp;eToro also made dogecoin&nbsp;available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所 Geminion 周二宣布支持该硬币的交易和托管。交易平台 eToro 也允许狗狗币在其平台上进行交易。webull 于 4 月 20 日允许其用户购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>FOMO</p><p><blockquote>福莫</blockquote></p><p>Fear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>据说，对错过的恐惧也是激增的背后原因。一些加密货币参与者推测，dogecoin 的上涨得到了零售交易者的支持，他们认为这种模仿币比 bitcoinBTCUSD（-0.16%）更容易获得投资（或交易），bitcoinBTCUSD 在最后一次检查时以 54,000 美元易手CoinDesk。</blockquote></p><p>“Dogecoin&nbsp;is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华-莫亚（Edward Moya）在每日报告中写道：”狗狗币之所以飙升，是因为许多加密货币交易者不想错过埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）主持《周六夜现场》（Saturday Night Live）节目所带来的任何热点。</blockquote></p><p>Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.</p><p><blockquote>传统资产的收益似乎也更加平淡无奇。相比之下，黄金期货GC00,0.17%今年迄今已下跌6%，道琼斯工业平均指数JIA,+0.06%和标普500指数SPX,-0.67%在2021年至少上涨10%，而纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-1.88%涨幅超过5%。</blockquote></p><p>Accessibility</p><p><blockquote>可访问性</blockquote></p><p>Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of&nbsp;Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.</p><p><blockquote>Allnodes 首席执行官康斯坦丁·博伊科-罗曼诺夫斯基 (Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky) 通过电子邮件表示，他认为马斯克和亿万富翁马克·库班 (Mark Cuban) 的支持是狗狗币牛市论点的核心，但他也表示，有些人可能认为与比特币相比，这种加密货币更容易获得，最近在降温前达到了 6 万美元以上的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“它对普通大众更有吸引力，因为它的成本非常低。一个比特币 6 万美元可能会让一些人望而生畏。在某种程度上，doge 更像是美元，但却是数字形式，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>Bubbles &amp; manias</p><p><blockquote>泡沫与狂热</blockquote></p><p>Moya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”</p><p><blockquote>莫亚写道，狗狗币泡沫 “现在应该已经破裂了，但机构兴趣正试图利用这一势头，这可能会支撑狗狗币再次走高”。</blockquote></p><p>Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.</p><p><blockquote>许多怀疑论者警告说，如果狗狗币不谨慎地涉足该资产，可能会让许多新手投资者蒙受损失。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币的价格为何飙升？2021 年加密货币飙升 11,000%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币的价格为何飙升？2021 年加密货币飙升 11,000%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-05 09:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Every dog has its day…but a whole year?</p><p><blockquote>每只狗都有它的一天…但是一整年呢？</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，狗狗币（dogecoin）是一种与柴犬狗图像相关的迷因加密货币，它正在享受近年来加密货币最好的一年之一，今年迄今为止的涨幅超过11,000%，并跻身今年最有价值的十大数字资产之列。</blockquote></p><p>At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据 CoinDesk 的数据，在上次检查时，dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26% 的易手价格为 54 美分，在过去 24 小时内上涨超过 23%，2021 年迄今为止上涨了约 11,210%。</blockquote></p><p>That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛物线般的上涨吸引了掌声和担忧，因为其支持者的目标是将模仿硬币的价值推至接近 1 美元，批评者警告说，这种资产具有资产泡沫的所有特征，注定会破裂并留下大屠杀。</blockquote></p><p>Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7201d3eb982c0d5d636bf8ff4a1ca7\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,”&nbsp;on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>只是，不要把这句话告诉那些为加密货币欢呼的人，否则可能会听到这句常见的话： “享受贫穷吧”。那么，为什么发音为 “dōj-coin ”的狗狗币会遭受如此巨大的冲击，甚至超过了被认为是数字资产和区块链时代更严肃的代表的加密货币呢？以下是几个原因：</blockquote></p><p>Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’</p><p><blockquote>其最大的助推器将是嘉宾主持《周六夜现场》</blockquote></p><p>Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers&nbsp;for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司和 SpaceX 的首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）将于本周末主持《周六夜现场》（Saturday Night Live），该节目已经为这位技术专家赢得了欢呼和嘲笑。他已经成为今年狗狗币最突出、最直言不讳的冠军之一，一些人猜测他可以做些什么来推广doge。</blockquote></p><p>Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.</p><p><blockquote>在《周六夜现场》演出之前，马斯克在最近的一条推特上确实称自己为 “狗爹”。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a1a1602240507ad985c5efcb2571f5\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Brokerages trade dogecoin</p><p><blockquote>经纪商交易狗狗币</blockquote></p><p>A number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.</p><p><blockquote>一些新的场所已经宣布，他们将在最近几天和几周内在他们的交易所交易狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform&nbsp;eToro also made dogecoin&nbsp;available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所 Geminion 周二宣布支持该硬币的交易和托管。交易平台 eToro 也允许狗狗币在其平台上进行交易。webull 于 4 月 20 日允许其用户购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>FOMO</p><p><blockquote>福莫</blockquote></p><p>Fear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>据说，对错过的恐惧也是激增的背后原因。一些加密货币参与者推测，dogecoin 的上涨得到了零售交易者的支持，他们认为这种模仿币比 bitcoinBTCUSD（-0.16%）更容易获得投资（或交易），bitcoinBTCUSD 在最后一次检查时以 54,000 美元易手CoinDesk。</blockquote></p><p>“Dogecoin&nbsp;is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华-莫亚（Edward Moya）在每日报告中写道：”狗狗币之所以飙升，是因为许多加密货币交易者不想错过埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）主持《周六夜现场》（Saturday Night Live）节目所带来的任何热点。</blockquote></p><p>Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.</p><p><blockquote>传统资产的收益似乎也更加平淡无奇。相比之下，黄金期货GC00,0.17%今年迄今已下跌6%，道琼斯工业平均指数JIA,+0.06%和标普500指数SPX,-0.67%在2021年至少上涨10%，而纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-1.88%涨幅超过5%。</blockquote></p><p>Accessibility</p><p><blockquote>可访问性</blockquote></p><p>Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of&nbsp;Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.</p><p><blockquote>Allnodes 首席执行官康斯坦丁·博伊科-罗曼诺夫斯基 (Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky) 通过电子邮件表示，他认为马斯克和亿万富翁马克·库班 (Mark Cuban) 的支持是狗狗币牛市论点的核心，但他也表示，有些人可能认为与比特币相比，这种加密货币更容易获得，最近在降温前达到了 6 万美元以上的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“它对普通大众更有吸引力，因为它的成本非常低。一个比特币 6 万美元可能会让一些人望而生畏。在某种程度上，doge 更像是美元，但却是数字形式，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>Bubbles &amp; manias</p><p><blockquote>泡沫与狂热</blockquote></p><p>Moya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”</p><p><blockquote>莫亚写道，狗狗币泡沫 “现在应该已经破裂了，但机构兴趣正试图利用这一势头，这可能会支撑狗狗币再次走高”。</blockquote></p><p>Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.</p><p><blockquote>许多怀疑论者警告说，如果狗狗币不谨慎地涉足该资产，可能会让许多新手投资者蒙受损失。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-is-dogecoins-price-spiking-the-crypto-has-surged-11-000-in-2021-11620151738?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-is-dogecoins-price-spiking-the-crypto-has-surged-11-000-in-2021-11620151738?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115203133","content_text":"Every dog has its day…but a whole year?Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,” on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn cheers and jeers for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.Brokerages trade dogecoinA number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform eToro also made dogecoin available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.FOMOFear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.“Dogecoin is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.AccessibilityKonstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.Bubbles & maniasMoya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106861004,"gmtCreate":1620102357708,"gmtModify":1634207790086,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Big split.&nbsp;","listText":"Big split.&nbsp;","text":"Big split.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106861004","repostId":"1147234999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108694396,"gmtCreate":1620016624815,"gmtModify":1634208489949,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Watch list&nbsp;","listText":"Watch list&nbsp;","text":"Watch list","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108694396","repostId":"1135819410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135819410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619999342,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135819410?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司、通用汽车等投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135819410","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their fi","content":"<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，标普500有 130 家公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二的情况有所好转： 动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和 T-Mobile US 均有报道。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，巴里克黄金公司、Booking Holdings、通用汽车、PayPal控股公司和优步科技公司发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司将于周四上市。最后，信诺将于周五结束本周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）预测，4月份非农就业人数将增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括周一公布的美国供应管理协会 (Institute for Supply Management) 4 月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和公共存储举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。普遍估计，经季节性调整后的年增长率为 1.53 万亿美元，建筑支出环比增长 0.6%。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布4月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测读数为65，与3月份的数字大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、思科和 T-Mobile US 报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展举措。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋举办 2021 年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、博格华纳、艾默生电气、通用汽车、希尔顿全球控股公司、诺和诺德、PayPal Holdings 和 Uber Technologies 发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>其4月份的全国就业报告。继 3 月份增加 517,000 个就业岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加 762,500 个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>其4月份服务业采购经理人指数。普遍看涨期权为 64.6，比 3 月份的数据高出一个档次。三月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS 和 Zoetis 在评级举行会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 5 月 1 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。4月份首次申请失业救济人数平均每周为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节性调整后的生产率年增长率为 2.2%，而 2020 年第四季度为下降 4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨 6% 后下降 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5/7星期五</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布了4月份的就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加97.5万人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司、通用汽车等投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司、通用汽车等投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-03 07:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，标普500有 130 家公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二的情况有所好转： 动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和 T-Mobile US 均有报道。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，巴里克黄金公司、Booking Holdings、通用汽车、PayPal控股公司和优步科技公司发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司将于周四上市。最后，信诺将于周五结束本周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）预测，4月份非农就业人数将增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括周一公布的美国供应管理协会 (Institute for Supply Management) 4 月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和公共存储举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。普遍估计，经季节性调整后的年增长率为 1.53 万亿美元，建筑支出环比增长 0.6%。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布4月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测读数为65，与3月份的数字大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、思科和 T-Mobile US 报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展举措。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋举办 2021 年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、博格华纳、艾默生电气、通用汽车、希尔顿全球控股公司、诺和诺德、PayPal Holdings 和 Uber Technologies 发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>其4月份的全国就业报告。继 3 月份增加 517,000 个就业岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加 762,500 个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>其4月份服务业采购经理人指数。普遍看涨期权为 64.6，比 3 月份的数据高出一个档次。三月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS 和 Zoetis 在评级举行会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 5 月 1 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。4月份首次申请失业救济人数平均每周为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节性调整后的生产率年增长率为 2.2%，而 2020 年第四季度为下降 4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨 6% 后下降 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5/7星期五</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布了4月份的就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加97.5万人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车",".DJI":"道琼斯","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PYPL":"PayPal","UBER":"优步",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135819410","content_text":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.On Wednesday, Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings. Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on Friday.On the economic calendar this week, the main event will jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its Services equivalent on Wednesday.Enterprise Products Partners and Estée Lauder release earnings.Merck and Public Storage hold virtual investor days.The Census Bureau reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.Tuesday 5/4Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.Eli Lilly holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.Union Pacific holds its 2021 virtual investor day.Wednesday 5/5Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.Thursday 5/6Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.Friday 5/7The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.Cigna and Liberty Media report earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"VIACP":0.9,"UBER":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GM":0.9,"TMUS":0.9,"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101417427,"gmtCreate":1619931114969,"gmtModify":1634209020814,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Smart man.&nbsp;","listText":"Smart man.&nbsp;","text":"Smart man.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101417427","repostId":"1103106179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101391036,"gmtCreate":1619842553025,"gmtModify":1634209524551,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Anti trust laws protect against monopoly&nbsp;","listText":"Anti trust laws protect against monopoly&nbsp;","text":"Anti trust laws protect against monopoly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101391036","repostId":"1142063705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103225552,"gmtCreate":1619789562176,"gmtModify":1634209930090,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Amaaaazon!&nbsp;","listText":"Amaaaazon!&nbsp;","text":"Amaaaazon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103225552","repostId":"1182317990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109232961,"gmtCreate":1619698730053,"gmtModify":1634210644689,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Amazon!&nbsp;","listText":"Amazon!&nbsp;","text":"Amazon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109232961","repostId":"1169827391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169827391","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619664680,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169827391?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Earnings Will Be Fantastic. What That Means for the Stock.<blockquote>亚马逊的盈利将会非常出色。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169827391","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock in Amazon.com has barely budged since the e-commerce and cloud- computing giant reported stell","content":"<p>Stock in Amazon.com has barely budged since the e-commerce and cloud- computing giant reported stellar fourth-quarter results that were overshadowed by the news that CEO Jeff Bezos will shift into the role of&nbsp; executive chairman, with Amazon Web Services chief Andy Jassy taking over the top slot.</p><p><blockquote>自从这家电子商务和云计算巨头公布出色的第四季度业绩以来，亚马逊的股价几乎没有变化，但首席执行官杰夫·贝索斯 (Jeff Bezos) 将转任执行主席一职，亚马逊网络服务首席执行官安迪·贾西 (Andy Jassy) 将接任执行主席一职的消息给这一消息蒙上了阴影。</blockquote></p><p> The combination of that pending change, along with uncertainty over how the reopening of the economy will affect shopping behavior, has some investors a little uneasy about the stock’s near-term prospects.</p><p><blockquote>这一悬而未决的变化，再加上经济重新开放将如何影响购物行为的不确定性，让一些投资者对该股的近期前景有些不安。</blockquote></p><p> They will get a fresh look at the situation after the close of trading on Thursday, when Amazon (ticker: AMZN) posts its results for the March quarter. Amazon has told investors to expect revenue of $100 billion to $106 billion, with operating income of between $3 billion and $6.5 billion, and about $2 billion in costs related to Covid-19. The Wall Street consensus calls for revenue of $104.5 billion, with profits of $9.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>他们将在周四收盘后重新审视形势，届时亚马逊（股票代码：AMZN）将公布三月份季度的业绩。亚马逊告诉投资者，预计营收为1000亿至1060亿美元，经营利润在30亿至65亿美元之间，与Covid-19相关的成本约为20亿美元。华尔街一致认为评级营收为 1045 亿美元，每股收益为 9.54 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Street also clearly expects the quarter’s results to show continued strength in e-commerce. According to FactSet, Wall Street analysts expect online-stores revenue of $51.5 billion, up 41% from a year ago, with third-party sales of $21.7 billion, up 50%. Subscription revenues are expected to be $7.3 billion, up 32%, while revenue from physical stores is expected to be $4.3 billion, down 8%. AWS revenues are projected at $13.2 billion, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街还显然预计本季度的业绩将显示电子商务的持续强劲势头。根据FactSet的数据，华尔街分析师预计在线商店收入为515亿美元，同比增长41%，第三方销售额为217亿美元，同比增长50%。订阅收入预计为73亿美元，增长32%，实体店收入预计为43亿美元，下降8%。AWS 收入预计为 132 亿美元，增长 29%。</blockquote></p><p> One open question is what forecasts the company will make for the June quarter as parts of the country begin to return to more normal economic activity. The Street is projecting June quarter revenue of $108.7 billion and profits of $10.81 a share.</p><p><blockquote>一个悬而未决的问题是，随着该国部分地区开始恢复正常的经济活动，该公司将对 6 月份季度做出什么预测。华尔街预计 6 月份季度营收为 1,087 亿美元，每股利润为 10.81 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In an earnings preview note, Truist analyst Youssef Squali&nbsp;reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and a target of $3,750 for the share price. The stock closed Tuesday at $3,417.43, up 4.9% year to date.</p><p><blockquote>Truist 分析师 Youssef Squali 在一份收益预览报告中重申了该股的买入评级，并将股价目标定为 3,750 美元。该股周二收于 3,417.43 美元，今年迄今上涨 4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> He expects revenue to come in at the high end of the range Amazon predicted, saying e-commerce demand has remained strong both in the U.S. and internationally, given that the pandemic has been slow to subside. Conversations with people in the industry and strong earning disclosed last week by Snap bode well for Amazon’s ad business, which is lumped into a category called “other,” he wrote. He also thinks the market continues to underestimate the long-term growth potential of the dominance of the company’s two key businesses—e-commerce and AWS—as well as the company’s “emerging leadership in online advertising.”</p><p><blockquote>他预计收入将达到亚马逊预测范围的高端，并表示鉴于疫情缓慢消退，美国和国际上的电子商务需求仍然强劲。他写道，与业内人士的交谈以及Snap上周披露的强劲盈利对亚马逊的广告业务来说是个好兆头，亚马逊的广告业务被归为 “其他 ”一类。他还认为，市场继续低估了公司两大关键业务--电子商务和 AWS--的主导地位，以及公司 “在在线广告领域的新兴领导地位 ”的长期增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Stifel analyst Scott Devitt&nbsp;is similarly bullish, repeating a Buy rating and $4,000 target price. He sees 40% top-line growth, a little ahead of the Street consensus. “The focus on the report will largely center on the outlook as Amazon laps the difficult prior year compares from the onset of the pandemic,” he wrote in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel 分析师 Scott Devitt 也同样乐观，重申了买入评级和 4,000 美元的目标价。他预计营收增长 40%，略高于华尔街的共识。“他在一份研究报告中写道：”与大流行病爆发以来的前一年相比，亚马逊将在很大程度上关注前景。</blockquote></p><p> “Growth in a post-Covid environment remains largely uncertain for Amazon and across the e-commerce landscape,” Devitt said. “Our [June quarter] revenue estimates are ahead of consensus as we see tailwinds stemming from strong growth in new Prime members and diversification across geographies and categories supporting the retail business as economies recover.” He also said AWS and the ad business are well positioned for a recovery.</p><p><blockquote>“德维特说：”在后科维德环境下，亚马逊和整个电子商务领域的增长在很大程度上仍然不确定。“随着经济复苏，我们看到 Prime 新会员的强劲增长以及跨地域和品类的多元化将为零售业务提供支持，因此我们（6 月份季度）的收入预期领先于市场共识。”他还表示，AWS 和广告业务已做好复苏准备。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter likewise maintained an Outperform rating and $4,000 target. He thinks the company will post more revenue and operating income than it had forecast, an outperformance resulting from market-share gains in e-commerce.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师 Michael Pachter 同样维持跑赢大盘评级和 4,000 美元目标。他认为该公司的收入和经营利润将超出预期，这一优异表现得益于电子商务的市场份额增长。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that a more stable economy, continued imposition of shelter-in-place orders in many of Amazon’s markets, continued expansion into the very large grocery segment, and outstanding execution likely drove strong results in Q1,” he said. “In addition, Amazon Pharmacy (launched February 2) represents a U.S. [addressable market] of around $600 billion, so any market share gains could provide further upside.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们相信，更稳定的经济、亚马逊许多市场继续实施就地避难订单、向超大型杂货市场的持续扩张以及出色的执行力可能会推动第一季度的强劲业绩。“此外，亚马逊药房（2 月 2 日推出）在美国的[潜在市场]约为 6000 亿美元，因此任何市场份额的增长都可能带来进一步的上涨空间。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Earnings Will Be Fantastic. What That Means for the Stock.<blockquote>亚马逊的盈利将会非常出色。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Earnings Will Be Fantastic. What That Means for the Stock.<blockquote>亚马逊的盈利将会非常出色。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock in Amazon.com has barely budged since the e-commerce and cloud- computing giant reported stellar fourth-quarter results that were overshadowed by the news that CEO Jeff Bezos will shift into the role of&nbsp; executive chairman, with Amazon Web Services chief Andy Jassy taking over the top slot.</p><p><blockquote>自从这家电子商务和云计算巨头公布出色的第四季度业绩以来，亚马逊的股价几乎没有变化，但首席执行官杰夫·贝索斯 (Jeff Bezos) 将转任执行主席一职，亚马逊网络服务首席执行官安迪·贾西 (Andy Jassy) 将接任执行主席一职的消息给这一消息蒙上了阴影。</blockquote></p><p> The combination of that pending change, along with uncertainty over how the reopening of the economy will affect shopping behavior, has some investors a little uneasy about the stock’s near-term prospects.</p><p><blockquote>这一悬而未决的变化，再加上经济重新开放将如何影响购物行为的不确定性，让一些投资者对该股的近期前景有些不安。</blockquote></p><p> They will get a fresh look at the situation after the close of trading on Thursday, when Amazon (ticker: AMZN) posts its results for the March quarter. Amazon has told investors to expect revenue of $100 billion to $106 billion, with operating income of between $3 billion and $6.5 billion, and about $2 billion in costs related to Covid-19. The Wall Street consensus calls for revenue of $104.5 billion, with profits of $9.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>他们将在周四收盘后重新审视形势，届时亚马逊（股票代码：AMZN）将公布三月份季度的业绩。亚马逊告诉投资者，预计营收为1000亿至1060亿美元，经营利润在30亿至65亿美元之间，与Covid-19相关的成本约为20亿美元。华尔街一致认为评级营收为 1045 亿美元，每股收益为 9.54 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Street also clearly expects the quarter’s results to show continued strength in e-commerce. According to FactSet, Wall Street analysts expect online-stores revenue of $51.5 billion, up 41% from a year ago, with third-party sales of $21.7 billion, up 50%. Subscription revenues are expected to be $7.3 billion, up 32%, while revenue from physical stores is expected to be $4.3 billion, down 8%. AWS revenues are projected at $13.2 billion, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街还显然预计本季度的业绩将显示电子商务的持续强劲势头。根据FactSet的数据，华尔街分析师预计在线商店收入为515亿美元，同比增长41%，第三方销售额为217亿美元，同比增长50%。订阅收入预计为73亿美元，增长32%，实体店收入预计为43亿美元，下降8%。AWS 收入预计为 132 亿美元，增长 29%。</blockquote></p><p> One open question is what forecasts the company will make for the June quarter as parts of the country begin to return to more normal economic activity. The Street is projecting June quarter revenue of $108.7 billion and profits of $10.81 a share.</p><p><blockquote>一个悬而未决的问题是，随着该国部分地区开始恢复正常的经济活动，该公司将对 6 月份季度做出什么预测。华尔街预计 6 月份季度营收为 1,087 亿美元，每股利润为 10.81 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In an earnings preview note, Truist analyst Youssef Squali&nbsp;reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and a target of $3,750 for the share price. The stock closed Tuesday at $3,417.43, up 4.9% year to date.</p><p><blockquote>Truist 分析师 Youssef Squali 在一份收益预览报告中重申了该股的买入评级，并将股价目标定为 3,750 美元。该股周二收于 3,417.43 美元，今年迄今上涨 4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> He expects revenue to come in at the high end of the range Amazon predicted, saying e-commerce demand has remained strong both in the U.S. and internationally, given that the pandemic has been slow to subside. Conversations with people in the industry and strong earning disclosed last week by Snap bode well for Amazon’s ad business, which is lumped into a category called “other,” he wrote. He also thinks the market continues to underestimate the long-term growth potential of the dominance of the company’s two key businesses—e-commerce and AWS—as well as the company’s “emerging leadership in online advertising.”</p><p><blockquote>他预计收入将达到亚马逊预测范围的高端，并表示鉴于疫情缓慢消退，美国和国际上的电子商务需求仍然强劲。他写道，与业内人士的交谈以及Snap上周披露的强劲盈利对亚马逊的广告业务来说是个好兆头，亚马逊的广告业务被归为 “其他 ”一类。他还认为，市场继续低估了公司两大关键业务--电子商务和 AWS--的主导地位，以及公司 “在在线广告领域的新兴领导地位 ”的长期增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Stifel analyst Scott Devitt&nbsp;is similarly bullish, repeating a Buy rating and $4,000 target price. He sees 40% top-line growth, a little ahead of the Street consensus. “The focus on the report will largely center on the outlook as Amazon laps the difficult prior year compares from the onset of the pandemic,” he wrote in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel 分析师 Scott Devitt 也同样乐观，重申了买入评级和 4,000 美元的目标价。他预计营收增长 40%，略高于华尔街的共识。“他在一份研究报告中写道：”与大流行病爆发以来的前一年相比，亚马逊将在很大程度上关注前景。</blockquote></p><p> “Growth in a post-Covid environment remains largely uncertain for Amazon and across the e-commerce landscape,” Devitt said. “Our [June quarter] revenue estimates are ahead of consensus as we see tailwinds stemming from strong growth in new Prime members and diversification across geographies and categories supporting the retail business as economies recover.” He also said AWS and the ad business are well positioned for a recovery.</p><p><blockquote>“德维特说：”在后科维德环境下，亚马逊和整个电子商务领域的增长在很大程度上仍然不确定。“随着经济复苏，我们看到 Prime 新会员的强劲增长以及跨地域和品类的多元化将为零售业务提供支持，因此我们（6 月份季度）的收入预期领先于市场共识。”他还表示，AWS 和广告业务已做好复苏准备。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter likewise maintained an Outperform rating and $4,000 target. He thinks the company will post more revenue and operating income than it had forecast, an outperformance resulting from market-share gains in e-commerce.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师 Michael Pachter 同样维持跑赢大盘评级和 4,000 美元目标。他认为该公司的收入和经营利润将超出预期，这一优异表现得益于电子商务的市场份额增长。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that a more stable economy, continued imposition of shelter-in-place orders in many of Amazon’s markets, continued expansion into the very large grocery segment, and outstanding execution likely drove strong results in Q1,” he said. “In addition, Amazon Pharmacy (launched February 2) represents a U.S. [addressable market] of around $600 billion, so any market share gains could provide further upside.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们相信，更稳定的经济、亚马逊许多市场继续实施就地避难订单、向超大型杂货市场的持续扩张以及出色的执行力可能会推动第一季度的强劲业绩。“此外，亚马逊药房（2 月 2 日推出）在美国的[潜在市场]约为 6000 亿美元，因此任何市场份额的增长都可能带来进一步的上涨空间。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-is-likely-to-post-blowout-profits-the-question-is-what-follows-51619556363?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-is-likely-to-post-blowout-profits-the-question-is-what-follows-51619556363?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169827391","content_text":"Stock in Amazon.com has barely budged since the e-commerce and cloud- computing giant reported stellar fourth-quarter results that were overshadowed by the news that CEO Jeff Bezos will shift into the role of  executive chairman, with Amazon Web Services chief Andy Jassy taking over the top slot.\nThe combination of that pending change, along with uncertainty over how the reopening of the economy will affect shopping behavior, has some investors a little uneasy about the stock’s near-term prospects.\nThey will get a fresh look at the situation after the close of trading on Thursday, when Amazon (ticker: AMZN) posts its results for the March quarter. Amazon has told investors to expect revenue of $100 billion to $106 billion, with operating income of between $3 billion and $6.5 billion, and about $2 billion in costs related to Covid-19. The Wall Street consensus calls for revenue of $104.5 billion, with profits of $9.54 a share.\nThe Street also clearly expects the quarter’s results to show continued strength in e-commerce. According to FactSet, Wall Street analysts expect online-stores revenue of $51.5 billion, up 41% from a year ago, with third-party sales of $21.7 billion, up 50%. Subscription revenues are expected to be $7.3 billion, up 32%, while revenue from physical stores is expected to be $4.3 billion, down 8%. AWS revenues are projected at $13.2 billion, up 29%.\nOne open question is what forecasts the company will make for the June quarter as parts of the country begin to return to more normal economic activity. The Street is projecting June quarter revenue of $108.7 billion and profits of $10.81 a share.\nIn an earnings preview note, Truist analyst Youssef Squali reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and a target of $3,750 for the share price. The stock closed Tuesday at $3,417.43, up 4.9% year to date.\nHe expects revenue to come in at the high end of the range Amazon predicted, saying e-commerce demand has remained strong both in the U.S. and internationally, given that the pandemic has been slow to subside. Conversations with people in the industry and strong earning disclosed last week by Snap bode well for Amazon’s ad business, which is lumped into a category called “other,” he wrote. He also thinks the market continues to underestimate the long-term growth potential of the dominance of the company’s two key businesses—e-commerce and AWS—as well as the company’s “emerging leadership in online advertising.”\nStifel analyst Scott Devitt is similarly bullish, repeating a Buy rating and $4,000 target price. He sees 40% top-line growth, a little ahead of the Street consensus. “The focus on the report will largely center on the outlook as Amazon laps the difficult prior year compares from the onset of the pandemic,” he wrote in a research note.\n“Growth in a post-Covid environment remains largely uncertain for Amazon and across the e-commerce landscape,” Devitt said. “Our [June quarter] revenue estimates are ahead of consensus as we see tailwinds stemming from strong growth in new Prime members and diversification across geographies and categories supporting the retail business as economies recover.” He also said AWS and the ad business are well positioned for a recovery.\nWedbush analyst Michael Pachter likewise maintained an Outperform rating and $4,000 target. He thinks the company will post more revenue and operating income than it had forecast, an outperformance resulting from market-share gains in e-commerce. \n“We believe that a more stable economy, continued imposition of shelter-in-place orders in many of Amazon’s markets, continued expansion into the very large grocery segment, and outstanding execution likely drove strong results in Q1,” he said. “In addition, Amazon Pharmacy (launched February 2) represents a U.S. [addressable market] of around $600 billion, so any market share gains could provide further upside.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100165900,"gmtCreate":1619590660900,"gmtModify":1634211498124,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Big fight ahead!&nbsp;","listText":"Big fight ahead!&nbsp;","text":"Big fight ahead!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100165900","repostId":"1124091974","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377037520,"gmtCreate":1619484001660,"gmtModify":1634212426279,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Moony moon! Like like please thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Moony moon! Like like please thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Moony moon! Like like please thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377037520","repostId":"1190086074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190086074","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619480390,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1190086074?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-27 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创历史新高 4.38 亿美元，收入激增 74%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190086074","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be deliv","content":"<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.</li><li>In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”</li><li>On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.</li></ul>Tesla&nbsp;reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉公布本季度净利润为创纪录的 4.38 亿美元，每股收益为 93 美分，营收为 103.9 亿美元。</li><li>该公司在财报发布中表示，它已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题，部分原因是 “迅速转向新型微控制器，同时为新供应商生产的新芯片开发固件”。</li><li>首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）在财报看涨期权上表示，公司推迟推出的 Model S 轿车新版本将于 2021 年 5 月开始交付，Model X 将于今年第三季度开始交付。</li></ul>特斯拉周一盘后公布了第一季度业绩。在比特币出售和监管信贷的提振下，该公司轻松超出预期，但随着投资者消化这些数据，该股盘后下跌了 2.5%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec5c52f391c1077b749edc13b7b3417\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司本季度的表现与 Refinitiv 编制的分析师预期的比较：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings:</b>93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expected</li><li><b>Revenue:</b>$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year ago</li></ul>Net profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from&nbsp;sales of bitcoin&nbsp;during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股 93 美分，预计每股 79 美分</li><li><b>收入：</b>103.9 亿美元，而预期为 102.9 亿美元，同比增长 74%</li></ul>按公认会计准则计算，季度净利润达到创纪录的 4.38 亿美元，该公司在此期间从监管信用销售收入中获得 5.18 亿美元。本季度比特币销售额还带来了 1.01 亿美元的积极影响。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107ab1e725bed375ea106bdf3024ec6a\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter&nbsp;vehicle deliveries of 184,800&nbsp;Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的电动汽车业务第一季度交付了 18.48 万辆 Model 3 和 Model Y 汽车，超出预期，创下了特斯拉的纪录。不过，该公司还表示，截至 3 月份，它没有生产任何高端 Model S 轿车或 Model X SUV。它从库存中交付了 2,020 辆旧款 Model S 轿车和 Model X SUV。</blockquote></p><p>On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的财报看涨期权上，马斯克表示，公司新版 Model S 轿车最终将于 2021 年 5 月开始交付给客户，Model X 将于今年第三季度开始交付。马斯克和首席财务官扎卡里·柯克霍恩都表示，供应链问题今年可能仍然是特斯拉面临的挑战。</blockquote></p><p>In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年 1 月（在 2020 年第四季度收益更新期间），马斯克曾表示 Model S Plaid 已经投入生产，将于 2021 年 2 月开始交付。但他在周一承认，在生产这些车辆的更新版本时，“面临的挑战比预期的要多”。他没有详细说明。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉目前的目标是在今年晚些时候每周生产 2,000 辆 Model S 和 X 汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周一表示，预计 2021 年整体汽车交付量将增长 50% 以上，这意味着今年的最低交付量约为 75 万辆。</blockquote></p><p>The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，特斯拉的汽车销量同比增长超过 100%，但服务中心仅增长 28%，移动服务车队仅增长 22%，这解释了为什么一些特斯拉客户面临令人沮丧的漫长维修等待时间。服务扩展跟不上车辆销量。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，该公司已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题，部分原因是 “迅速转向新型微控制器，同时为新供应商生产的新芯片开发固件”。它没有透露新供应商的名字。</blockquote></p><p>It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>它还重申了马斯克经常说的，即摄像头而不是雷达是自动驾驶汽车的更好途径。“我们基于人工智能的软件架构越来越依赖摄像头，以至于雷达比预期更早变得不必要。因此，我们的 FSD（全自动驾驶）团队正全力致力于发展基于视觉的自主系统，我们几乎准备好将美国市场转向特斯拉视觉，”该公司在财报发布会上说。</blockquote></p><p>Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与 2020 年同期相比，特斯拉的能源发电和存储业务收入几乎翻了一番，当时马斯克表示，当时新兴的新冠疫情使其能源业务大幅放缓。但能源收入从第四季度的7.87亿美元下降至2021年第一季度的5.95亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some&nbsp;vexed customers.</p><p><blockquote>最近，特斯拉将太阳能屋顶的价格提高了 50%，现在要求任何订购太阳能光伏（包括特斯拉太阳能屋顶瓦）的人也必须订购特斯拉的家庭储能系统 Powerwall。突然的价格变化追溯适用于一些烦恼的顾客。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在 2021 年第一季度看涨期权上表示，他的目标是让拥有太阳能屋顶和特斯拉电池的家庭成为 “巨型分布式公用事业公司”，随着需求和极端天气事件的增加，帮助现有电力公司为客户提供所需的所有电力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>高管们没有透露他们将如何改变供应商电池的生产或组合，以便在 2021 年生产更多的汽车和储能产品。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克说，该公司自主研发并在加州弗里蒙特的一个试点工厂生产的 4680 电池还不够可靠，无法在特斯拉汽车上运输。他说，特斯拉可能会在 12 到 18 个月内 “实现这些电池的量产 ”。</blockquote></p><p>The company revealed in February it purchased&nbsp;$1.5 billion in bitcoin&nbsp;and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2月份透露，它在比特币购买了15亿美元，未来可能会投资其他加密货币。到四月份，比特币升至创纪录水平，然后回落。特斯拉在现金流量表中透露，该公司在本季度出售了价值 2.72 亿美元的 “数字资产”，大概是比特币。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创历史新高 4.38 亿美元，收入激增 74%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创历史新高 4.38 亿美元，收入激增 74%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-27 07:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.</li><li>In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”</li><li>On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.</li></ul>Tesla&nbsp;reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉公布本季度净利润为创纪录的 4.38 亿美元，每股收益为 93 美分，营收为 103.9 亿美元。</li><li>该公司在财报发布中表示，它已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题，部分原因是 “迅速转向新型微控制器，同时为新供应商生产的新芯片开发固件”。</li><li>首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）在财报看涨期权上表示，公司推迟推出的 Model S 轿车新版本将于 2021 年 5 月开始交付，Model X 将于今年第三季度开始交付。</li></ul>特斯拉周一盘后公布了第一季度业绩。在比特币出售和监管信贷的提振下，该公司轻松超出预期，但随着投资者消化这些数据，该股盘后下跌了 2.5%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec5c52f391c1077b749edc13b7b3417\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司本季度的表现与 Refinitiv 编制的分析师预期的比较：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings:</b>93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expected</li><li><b>Revenue:</b>$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year ago</li></ul>Net profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from&nbsp;sales of bitcoin&nbsp;during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股 93 美分，预计每股 79 美分</li><li><b>收入：</b>103.9 亿美元，而预期为 102.9 亿美元，同比增长 74%</li></ul>按公认会计准则计算，季度净利润达到创纪录的 4.38 亿美元，该公司在此期间从监管信用销售收入中获得 5.18 亿美元。本季度比特币销售额还带来了 1.01 亿美元的积极影响。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107ab1e725bed375ea106bdf3024ec6a\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter&nbsp;vehicle deliveries of 184,800&nbsp;Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的电动汽车业务第一季度交付了 18.48 万辆 Model 3 和 Model Y 汽车，超出预期，创下了特斯拉的纪录。不过，该公司还表示，截至 3 月份，它没有生产任何高端 Model S 轿车或 Model X SUV。它从库存中交付了 2,020 辆旧款 Model S 轿车和 Model X SUV。</blockquote></p><p>On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的财报看涨期权上，马斯克表示，公司新版 Model S 轿车最终将于 2021 年 5 月开始交付给客户，Model X 将于今年第三季度开始交付。马斯克和首席财务官扎卡里·柯克霍恩都表示，供应链问题今年可能仍然是特斯拉面临的挑战。</blockquote></p><p>In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年 1 月（在 2020 年第四季度收益更新期间），马斯克曾表示 Model S Plaid 已经投入生产，将于 2021 年 2 月开始交付。但他在周一承认，在生产这些车辆的更新版本时，“面临的挑战比预期的要多”。他没有详细说明。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉目前的目标是在今年晚些时候每周生产 2,000 辆 Model S 和 X 汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周一表示，预计 2021 年整体汽车交付量将增长 50% 以上，这意味着今年的最低交付量约为 75 万辆。</blockquote></p><p>The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，特斯拉的汽车销量同比增长超过 100%，但服务中心仅增长 28%，移动服务车队仅增长 22%，这解释了为什么一些特斯拉客户面临令人沮丧的漫长维修等待时间。服务扩展跟不上车辆销量。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，该公司已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题，部分原因是 “迅速转向新型微控制器，同时为新供应商生产的新芯片开发固件”。它没有透露新供应商的名字。</blockquote></p><p>It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>它还重申了马斯克经常说的，即摄像头而不是雷达是自动驾驶汽车的更好途径。“我们基于人工智能的软件架构越来越依赖摄像头，以至于雷达比预期更早变得不必要。因此，我们的 FSD（全自动驾驶）团队正全力致力于发展基于视觉的自主系统，我们几乎准备好将美国市场转向特斯拉视觉，”该公司在财报发布会上说。</blockquote></p><p>Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与 2020 年同期相比，特斯拉的能源发电和存储业务收入几乎翻了一番，当时马斯克表示，当时新兴的新冠疫情使其能源业务大幅放缓。但能源收入从第四季度的7.87亿美元下降至2021年第一季度的5.95亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some&nbsp;vexed customers.</p><p><blockquote>最近，特斯拉将太阳能屋顶的价格提高了 50%，现在要求任何订购太阳能光伏（包括特斯拉太阳能屋顶瓦）的人也必须订购特斯拉的家庭储能系统 Powerwall。突然的价格变化追溯适用于一些烦恼的顾客。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在 2021 年第一季度看涨期权上表示，他的目标是让拥有太阳能屋顶和特斯拉电池的家庭成为 “巨型分布式公用事业公司”，随着需求和极端天气事件的增加，帮助现有电力公司为客户提供所需的所有电力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>高管们没有透露他们将如何改变供应商电池的生产或组合，以便在 2021 年生产更多的汽车和储能产品。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克说，该公司自主研发并在加州弗里蒙特的一个试点工厂生产的 4680 电池还不够可靠，无法在特斯拉汽车上运输。他说，特斯拉可能会在 12 到 18 个月内 “实现这些电池的量产 ”。</blockquote></p><p>The company revealed in February it purchased&nbsp;$1.5 billion in bitcoin&nbsp;and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2月份透露，它在比特币购买了15亿美元，未来可能会投资其他加密货币。到四月份，比特币升至创纪录水平，然后回落。特斯拉在现金流量表中透露，该公司在本季度出售了价值 2.72 亿美元的 “数字资产”，大概是比特币。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190086074","content_text":"KEY POINTSTesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.Tesla reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:Earnings:93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expectedRevenue:$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year agoNet profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from sales of bitcoin during the quarter.CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter vehicle deliveries of 184,800 Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some vexed customers.Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.The company revealed in February it purchased $1.5 billion in bitcoin and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375483371,"gmtCreate":1619391801193,"gmtModify":1634273938137,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"NFT are da bomb now! Like and share for me?&nbsp;","listText":"NFT are da bomb now! Like and share for me?&nbsp;","text":"NFT are da bomb now! Like and share for me?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375483371","repostId":"1188060568","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375264540,"gmtCreate":1619349596380,"gmtModify":1634274075523,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575073792751116","idStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like meee","listText":"Like meee","text":"Like meee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375264540","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":343984435,"gmtCreate":1617669770127,"gmtModify":1634297226946,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogo Jones! Like like thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Gogo Jones! Like like thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Gogo Jones! Like like thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343984435","repostId":"1153914073","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198797359,"gmtCreate":1620988930071,"gmtModify":1634194757317,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy the dip!&nbsp;","listText":"Buy the dip!&nbsp;","text":"Buy the dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198797359","repostId":"2135945620","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196690323,"gmtCreate":1621046234862,"gmtModify":1634194327301,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"To the moon! Like please thanks&nbsp;","listText":"To the moon! Like please thanks&nbsp;","text":"To the moon! Like please thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196690323","repostId":"1163454382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163454382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621004581,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1163454382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163454382","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million. First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinat","content":"<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC 投资者有理由在再次融资后更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的上涨是在该公司宣布筹集 4.28 亿美元之后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）就当前的健康和安全协议发表了一份新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持物理距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这应该可以让电影院满负荷重新开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影观众的理想目的地。也是昨天，<b>华特·迪士尼</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：DIS）公布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克 (Bob Chapek) 指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是个好消息，但迪士尼也报告了其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>较低的流媒体订阅可能是影院业务的一个积极迹象。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，随着疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在室内聚集人群，不戴口罩，剧院上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动中。经过一年多的在家观看，电影院可能会成为最受欢迎的目的地。在再次融资之后，AMC 投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC 投资者有理由在再次融资后更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的上涨是在该公司宣布筹集 4.28 亿美元之后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）就当前的健康和安全协议发表了一份新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持物理距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这应该可以让电影院满负荷重新开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影观众的理想目的地。也是昨天，<b>华特·迪士尼</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：DIS）公布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克 (Bob Chapek) 指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是个好消息，但迪士尼也报告了其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>较低的流媒体订阅可能是影院业务的一个积极迹象。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，随着疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在室内聚集人群，不戴口罩，剧院上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动中。经过一年多的在家观看，电影院可能会成为最受欢迎的目的地。在再次融资之后，AMC 投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163454382","content_text":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.\n\nWhat happened\nA day afterAMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC)\nSo what\nYesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million\nFirst, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.\nThis should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.\nNow what\nLower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.\nVaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104176815,"gmtCreate":1620368689637,"gmtModify":1634205710312,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree&nbsp;","listText":"Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree&nbsp;","text":"Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104176815","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157328258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620360165,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1157328258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157328258","media":"Seeking alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至尚未进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于 DCF 的亚马逊股价目标表明有 30% 的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上一季度的业绩介绍了我对亚马逊 (AMZN) 的全面分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1 价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊的增长在上一季度是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”细分市场的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了近乎线性的趋势。现在，它已经成倍增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场 - 加速依然存在，上一季度的业绩好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）分部也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘亚马逊网络服务’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的业绩来看，有逐渐恢复到之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的收入也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计学上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键分部</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去的10年里，亚马逊的资本化与其收入一直处于定性的线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>大家可以看到，首先，这个模型表明公司目前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%的增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2 比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一节中，我根据收入模拟了亚马逊的平衡价格。值得注意的是，如果我们对公司使用倍数的比较估值应用同样的方法，我们将失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数，可以成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3 贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我还从分析师对该公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，营业利润率在最后一年逐步增加到8%是一个非常现实的场景。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用股票风险溢价（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。对于最后一年，我使用了等于1的Beta。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用了2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>这是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>基于 DCF 的亚马逊股票目标价为 4,280 美元，上涨空间为 29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至尚未进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段，并不意味着其资本化不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，该公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的 DCF 模型分析师表明估值被低估了 30%。今年年初，一个类似的模型表明估值被低估了 20%。</li><li>当你看到亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至尚未进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于 DCF 的亚马逊股价目标表明有 30% 的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上一季度的业绩介绍了我对亚马逊 (AMZN) 的全面分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1 价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊的增长在上一季度是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”细分市场的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了近乎线性的趋势。现在，它已经成倍增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场 - 加速依然存在，上一季度的业绩好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）分部也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘亚马逊网络服务’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的业绩来看，有逐渐恢复到之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的收入也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计学上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键分部</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去的10年里，亚马逊的资本化与其收入一直处于定性的线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>大家可以看到，首先，这个模型表明公司目前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%的增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2 比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一节中，我根据收入模拟了亚马逊的平衡价格。值得注意的是，如果我们对公司使用倍数的比较估值应用同样的方法，我们将失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数，可以成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3 贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我还从分析师对该公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，营业利润率在最后一年逐步增加到8%是一个非常现实的场景。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用股票风险溢价（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。对于最后一年，我使用了等于1的Beta。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用了2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>这是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>基于 DCF 的亚马逊股票目标价为 4,280 美元，上涨空间为 29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至尚未进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段，并不意味着其资本化不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，该公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的 DCF 模型分析师表明估值被低估了 30%。今年年初，一个类似的模型表明估值被低估了 20%。</li><li>当你看到亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company\">Seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157328258","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.#1 Price vs. GrowthFirst of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comGeographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comSo, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growthin all key segments. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThere is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comBased on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is alreadybelow the balanced level. And secondly, it assumes a25% growthin capitalization in the next four quarters.#2 Comparative ValuationIn the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.#3 Discounted Cash Flow ModelWhen predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:Source: Seeking Alpha ProWhen predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:Source: AuthorSome explanations:In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.Here is the model itself:(In high resolution)Source: AuthorThe DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.Final thoughtsAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company isundervalued.Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company ismuch cheaperthan the market.DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379648359,"gmtCreate":1618734029771,"gmtModify":1634291181919,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Expire like milk&nbsp;","listText":"Expire like milk&nbsp;","text":"Expire like milk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379648359","repostId":"1175692875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175692875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618582708,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175692875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440 亿美元的期权今天到期：以下是将会发生的变化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175692875","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire","content":"<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然今天不是四倍（甚至三倍）魔法日，但今天有很多每周期权将到期，其中五个将毫无价值，而其他期权将为基础价格提供支撑“大头针”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，但高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4 月份每日期权交易量较 3 月 30 日年初以来 24 亿美元的低点增长了 70%。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总共有 5,440 亿美元的单只股票期权将于今天到期，其中包括 3,050 亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期日对于持有大量现值（ATM）期权未平仓合约的股票来说可能非常重要，因为做市商将积极对冲其异常庞大的期权投资组合。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动性，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的 Vishal Vivek 所写，在重大到期日，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约将到期。</b>在平价行权（行权价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中有大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，三角洲对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对冲其头寸的期权交易者是净多头 ATM 期权，则与到期相关的流动可能会产生抑制股价变动的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约结算在罢工点附近。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大投资者来说，这是一种理想的情况。或者，如果delta-hedgers是净空头ATM期权（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致拥有大量 ATM 未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助希望抓住日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，确定了今天到期的大量 ATM 未平仓合约的可能重点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约在股票成交量中占很大比例，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在 SpotGamma 的朋友们写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的、近乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙像这样 “突破 ”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，比如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，并将在一篇较长的文章中发布”。</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动性现在已经被压缩（即VIX在新低），现在有更大的潜力出现“长期”波动性。回想一下，最近市场的任何急剧、剧烈下跌是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些突破下跌与创纪录的 VIX 峰值同时发生，但反思性的snap回购将带来与 VIX（即隐含波动率）逆转同等强度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma 的另一个奇怪观察结果：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动性非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或触及支撑位，隐含的波动性就会迅速回落。<b>我们经常想到这个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确!）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含的波动性就会下降。</b>因此，正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购推动反弹的空头对冲。SG 的结论： 目前较低的隐含波动率水平为市场提供了更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始，“减缓”了这种反应灵敏的 “snap回调 ”买入机制。此外，当 IV 较低时，伽马值较高，因此伽马翻转可能会有更多的作用。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440 亿美元的期权今天到期：以下是将会发生的变化</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440 亿美元的期权今天到期：以下是将会发生的变化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然今天不是四倍（甚至三倍）魔法日，但今天有很多每周期权将到期，其中五个将毫无价值，而其他期权将为基础价格提供支撑“大头针”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，但高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4 月份每日期权交易量较 3 月 30 日年初以来 24 亿美元的低点增长了 70%。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总共有 5,440 亿美元的单只股票期权将于今天到期，其中包括 3,050 亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期日对于持有大量现值（ATM）期权未平仓合约的股票来说可能非常重要，因为做市商将积极对冲其异常庞大的期权投资组合。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动性，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的 Vishal Vivek 所写，在重大到期日，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约将到期。</b>在平价行权（行权价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中有大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，三角洲对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对冲其头寸的期权交易者是净多头 ATM 期权，则与到期相关的流动可能会产生抑制股价变动的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约结算在罢工点附近。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大投资者来说，这是一种理想的情况。或者，如果delta-hedgers是净空头ATM期权（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致拥有大量 ATM 未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助希望抓住日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，确定了今天到期的大量 ATM 未平仓合约的可能重点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约在股票成交量中占很大比例，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在 SpotGamma 的朋友们写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的、近乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙像这样 “突破 ”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，比如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，并将在一篇较长的文章中发布”。</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动性现在已经被压缩（即VIX在新低），现在有更大的潜力出现“长期”波动性。回想一下，最近市场的任何急剧、剧烈下跌是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些突破下跌与创纪录的 VIX 峰值同时发生，但反思性的snap回购将带来与 VIX（即隐含波动率）逆转同等强度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma 的另一个奇怪观察结果：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动性非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或触及支撑位，隐含的波动性就会迅速回落。<b>我们经常想到这个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确!）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含的波动性就会下降。</b>因此，正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购推动反弹的空头对冲。SG 的结论： 目前较低的隐含波动率水平为市场提供了更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始，“减缓”了这种反应灵敏的 “snap回调 ”买入机制。此外，当 IV 较低时，伽马值较高，因此伽马翻转可能会有更多的作用。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175692875","content_text":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.How to trade this?As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations wherea large amount of open interest is set to expire.In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX  (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.  Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.  Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340502826,"gmtCreate":1617425798265,"gmtModify":1634521002725,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Honestly I still think TSLA Is overhyped. Like if you agree.&nbsp;","listText":"Honestly I still think TSLA Is overhyped. Like if you agree.&nbsp;","text":"Honestly I still think TSLA Is overhyped. Like if you agree.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340502826","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320691797,"gmtCreate":1615088556619,"gmtModify":1703484637153,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy dip dip buy!&nbsp;","listText":"Buy dip dip buy!&nbsp;","text":"Buy dip dip buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320691797","repostId":"1169596583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169596583","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614958557,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169596583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir 暴跌超过 13%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169596583","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.","content":"<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Palantir暴跌超过13%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir 暴跌超过 13%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir 暴跌超过 13%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-05 23:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Palantir暴跌超过13%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169596583","content_text":"(March 5) Palantir plunged more than 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101417427,"gmtCreate":1619931114969,"gmtModify":1634209020814,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Smart man.&nbsp;","listText":"Smart man.&nbsp;","text":"Smart man.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101417427","repostId":"1103106179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353115990,"gmtCreate":1616469053710,"gmtModify":1634525660461,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gg discord.&nbsp;","listText":"Gg discord.&nbsp;","text":"Gg discord.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353115990","repostId":"2121833106","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121833106","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616469915,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2121833106?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-23 11:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft in talks to acquire Discord for more than $10 billion: Bloomberg News<blockquote>微软正在洽谈以超过 100 亿美元收购 Discord：彭博新闻社</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121833106","media":"reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is in talks to buy messaging platform Discord Inc for more than $10 billi","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is in talks to buy messaging platform Discord Inc for more than $10 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-据彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道，微软公司正在就以超过100亿美元收购消息平台Discord Inc.进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p>Discord has reached out to potential buyers and Microsoft is one of them, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter, while one of them said it was more likely to go public than sell itself.</p><p><blockquote>报道援引知情人士的话称，Discord 已经接触了潜在买家，微软就是其中之一，其中一位人士表示，Discord 更有可能上市而不是出售自己。</blockquote></p><p>Earlier in the day, VentureBeat reported that Discord was exploring a sale and it was in final talks with a party.</p><p><blockquote>当天早些时候，VentureBeat报道称，Discord正在探索出售，并正在与一方进行最后谈判。</blockquote></p><p>Both Microsoft and Discord did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comments.</p><p><blockquote>微软和Discord都没有立即回应路透社的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted the prospects of gaming companies as people stayed at home and turned to video games for entertainment during lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>随着人们在封锁期间呆在家里并转向视频游戏进行娱乐，新冠肺炎疫情提振了游戏公司的前景。</blockquote></p><p>Earlier this month, U.S. gaming company Roblox made a strong market debut after going public through a direct listing rather than a traditional initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，美国游戏公司 Roblox 通过直接上市而不是传统的首次公开募股上市，取得了强劲的市场首秀。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft in talks to acquire Discord for more than $10 billion: Bloomberg News<blockquote>微软正在洽谈以超过 100 亿美元收购 Discord：彭博新闻社</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft in talks to acquire Discord for more than $10 billion: Bloomberg News<blockquote>微软正在洽谈以超过 100 亿美元收购 Discord：彭博新闻社</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-23 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is in talks to buy messaging platform Discord Inc for more than $10 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-据彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道，微软公司正在就以超过100亿美元收购消息平台Discord Inc.进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p>Discord has reached out to potential buyers and Microsoft is one of them, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter, while one of them said it was more likely to go public than sell itself.</p><p><blockquote>报道援引知情人士的话称，Discord 已经接触了潜在买家，微软就是其中之一，其中一位人士表示，Discord 更有可能上市而不是出售自己。</blockquote></p><p>Earlier in the day, VentureBeat reported that Discord was exploring a sale and it was in final talks with a party.</p><p><blockquote>当天早些时候，VentureBeat报道称，Discord正在探索出售，并正在与一方进行最后谈判。</blockquote></p><p>Both Microsoft and Discord did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comments.</p><p><blockquote>微软和Discord都没有立即回应路透社的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted the prospects of gaming companies as people stayed at home and turned to video games for entertainment during lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>随着人们在封锁期间呆在家里并转向视频游戏进行娱乐，新冠肺炎疫情提振了游戏公司的前景。</blockquote></p><p>Earlier this month, U.S. gaming company Roblox made a strong market debut after going public through a direct listing rather than a traditional initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，美国游戏公司 Roblox 通过直接上市而不是传统的首次公开募股上市，取得了强劲的市场首秀。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-discord-m-a/microsoft-in-talks-to-acquire-discord-for-more-than-10-billion-bloomberg-news-idUSKBN2BE320?il=0\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","MSFT":"微软","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-discord-m-a/microsoft-in-talks-to-acquire-discord-for-more-than-10-billion-bloomberg-news-idUSKBN2BE320?il=0","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121833106","content_text":"(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is in talks to buy messaging platform Discord Inc for more than $10 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.Discord has reached out to potential buyers and Microsoft is one of them, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter, while one of them said it was more likely to go public than sell itself.Earlier in the day, VentureBeat reported that Discord was exploring a sale and it was in final talks with a party.Both Microsoft and Discord did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comments.The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted the prospects of gaming companies as people stayed at home and turned to video games for entertainment during lockdowns.Earlier this month, U.S. gaming company Roblox made a strong market debut after going public through a direct listing rather than a traditional initial public offering.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PINS":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359875530,"gmtCreate":1616387693820,"gmtModify":1634526112135,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Chiong ah&nbsp;","listText":"Chiong ah&nbsp;","text":"Chiong ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359875530","repostId":"2121288411","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}