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Dendenislit

Dendenislit

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2021-02-05

Nice

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2021-05-26

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Thanks Aunty Cathy

2021-02-09

Please like!

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2021-02-07

The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones

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2021-02-06

Rip

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2021-02-23

Diamond hands

Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们在泡沫里吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价 2021 年股市</blockquote>

2021-02-12

Moon!

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2021-02-10

Please like

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2021-02-05

Cny canceled lah, which means, I won’t have to spend so much on new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]

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2021-02-08

Damn

Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>Thanks Aunty Cathy&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>Thanks Aunty Cathy&nbsp;","text":"$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Thanks Aunty 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hands","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363060322","repostId":"1116870824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116870824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614051228,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1116870824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们在泡沫里吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价 2021 年股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116870824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indica","content":"<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’</p><p><blockquote>雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的泡沫指标显示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77位。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些投资者感到股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那样泡沫化。</blockquote></p><p> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，目前美国股市整体泡沫指标约为第 77 个百分位。在 2000 年泡沫和 1929 年泡沫中，这一综合指标的读数为第 100 个百分位，”达里奥周一在 LinkedIn 上发表的一篇博文中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> RAY DALIO</p><p><blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote></p><p> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水联合公司（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人，这家公司使他成为亿万富翁，他的言论一直吸引着人们的目光。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:</p><p><blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他使用六项指标创建了一个指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li>  <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li>  <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li>  <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li>  <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li>  <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>VIA RAY DALIO</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否打折了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即以前没有进入市场的买家）进入了市场？</li><li>情绪有多普遍看涨？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期采购（例如，建立库存、合同远期采购等）。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过雷·达里奥</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.</p><p><blockquote>基于这些因素，并利用 20 世纪 10 年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明，市场存在泡沫，但不一定处于他定义的泡沫中。</blockquote></p><p> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥发表上述言论之际，股市投资者正在与不断上升的债券收益率作斗争，10 年期美国国债正处于约一年来的最高水平，因为投资者正在为通胀上升和因 COVID-19 大流行病而萎靡不振的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.</p><p><blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是使道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，道琼斯工业平均指数的估值高得离谱。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are we in a bubble? 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How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们在泡沫里吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价 2021 年股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 11:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’</p><p><blockquote>雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的泡沫指标显示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77位。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些投资者感到股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那样泡沫化。</blockquote></p><p> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，目前美国股市整体泡沫指标约为第 77 个百分位。在 2000 年泡沫和 1929 年泡沫中，这一综合指标的读数为第 100 个百分位，”达里奥周一在 LinkedIn 上发表的一篇博文中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> RAY DALIO</p><p><blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote></p><p> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水联合公司（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人，这家公司使他成为亿万富翁，他的言论一直吸引着人们的目光。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:</p><p><blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他使用六项指标创建了一个指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li>  <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li>  <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li>  <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li>  <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li>  <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>VIA RAY DALIO</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否打折了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即以前没有进入市场的买家）进入了市场？</li><li>情绪有多普遍看涨？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期采购（例如，建立库存、合同远期采购等）。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过雷·达里奥</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.</p><p><blockquote>基于这些因素，并利用 20 世纪 10 年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明，市场存在泡沫，但不一定处于他定义的泡沫中。</blockquote></p><p> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥发表上述言论之际，股市投资者正在与不断上升的债券收益率作斗争，10 年期美国国债正处于约一年来的最高水平，因为投资者正在为通胀上升和因 COVID-19 大流行病而萎靡不振的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.</p><p><blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是使道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，道琼斯工业平均指数的估值高得离谱。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116870824","content_text":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’\nThe stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.\n“In brief, the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall. In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.\n\nRAY DALIO\nDalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.\nThe hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:\n\nHow high are prices relative to traditional measures?\nAre prices discounting unsustainable conditions?\nHow many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?\nHow broadly bullish is sentiment?\nAre purchases being financed by high leverage?\nHave buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?\n\nVIA RAY DALIO\nBased on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.\nDalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.\nFiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388745482,"gmtCreate":1613102639646,"gmtModify":1634554514076,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Moon!&nbsp;","listText":"Moon!&nbsp;","text":"Moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388745482","repostId":"2110549049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381615037,"gmtCreate":1612961607629,"gmtModify":1703767508998,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381615037","repostId":"1186964240","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383977346,"gmtCreate":1612834280585,"gmtModify":1703765620980,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like!","listText":"Please like!","text":"Please like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383977346","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389690519,"gmtCreate":1612759657531,"gmtModify":1703764676090,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Damn","listText":"Damn","text":"Damn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389690519","repostId":"1180268693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180268693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612755259,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180268693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180268693","media":"Barrons","summary":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial mark","content":"<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.</p><p><blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以同样的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote></p><p> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.</p><p><blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲锣打鼓，担心迫在眉睫的金融危机风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续的增长导致美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.</p><p><blockquote>当时，这种观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘的。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济的疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩普遍预期。华尔街几乎没有动力看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用并支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡泡的欣快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但是高潮越大，下降就越糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.</p><p><blockquote>这些对通货膨胀和市场修正的逆向观点现在已经成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC大量IPO（始终是顶部的信号）、过高的市盈率和快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及零售驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是很久以前美联储释放的大量流动性引发的潜在条件的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方的实际利率都低于零。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府预计将推出刺激计划和其他支出的蓝色浪潮。此时，收入基础正在侵蚀，美国不再处于稳健的财政状况。政府难以有效地借款来应对赤字扩大和债务复合只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救济上花费了3万亿美元，而由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者有理由感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us in<i>This Time is Different</i>that throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储此后采取支持通胀的立场也就不足为奇了。一个不言而喻的目标是以牺牲美国人的利益为代价，侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会蚕食我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们<i>这次不一样</i>纵观历史，“拖欠政府债务的主要手段是.贬低铸币内容。现代印钞机只是实现这一目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法”。他们指出，“政府债务.往往是各种金融危机的统一问题”。</blockquote></p><p> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是被认为是通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也贬值了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.</p><p><blockquote>面对部分封闭、增长乏力的经济，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市的飙升。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote></p><p> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.</p><p><blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人可以在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少可以隐藏起来？以任何历史衡量标准来看，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通货膨胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制 “FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高的高速科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而投资最近放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商应该会继续表现。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中不支付股息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.</p><p><blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，而且像法定货币一样，无论市场碰巧相信什么，都值得。当兴奋感消退时，他们可能会受到沉重打击。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个易于操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.</p><p><blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要小心投资的杠杆率。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险敞口（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote></p><p> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.</p><p><blockquote>我们需要加大对我们民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想回去工作。所谓的刺激资金并没有落入最需要的人手中。归根结底，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.</p><p><blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能会比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持液体，等待这个出来。春天甚至在最黑暗的冬天之后，合适的时机还会再次到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.</p><p><blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以同样的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote></p><p> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.</p><p><blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲锣打鼓，担心迫在眉睫的金融危机风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续的增长导致美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.</p><p><blockquote>当时，这种观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘的。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济的疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩普遍预期。华尔街几乎没有动力看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用并支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡泡的欣快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但是高潮越大，下降就越糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.</p><p><blockquote>这些对通货膨胀和市场修正的逆向观点现在已经成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC大量IPO（始终是顶部的信号）、过高的市盈率和快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及零售驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是很久以前美联储释放的大量流动性引发的潜在条件的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方的实际利率都低于零。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府预计将推出刺激计划和其他支出的蓝色浪潮。此时，收入基础正在侵蚀，美国不再处于稳健的财政状况。政府难以有效地借款来应对赤字扩大和债务复合只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救济上花费了3万亿美元，而由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者有理由感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us in<i>This Time is Different</i>that throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储此后采取支持通胀的立场也就不足为奇了。一个不言而喻的目标是以牺牲美国人的利益为代价，侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会蚕食我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们<i>这次不一样</i>纵观历史，“拖欠政府债务的主要手段是.贬低铸币内容。现代印钞机只是实现这一目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法”。他们指出，“政府债务.往往是各种金融危机的统一问题”。</blockquote></p><p> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是被认为是通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也贬值了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.</p><p><blockquote>面对部分封闭、增长乏力的经济，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市的飙升。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote></p><p> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.</p><p><blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人可以在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少可以隐藏起来？以任何历史衡量标准来看，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通货膨胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制 “FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高的高速科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而投资最近放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商应该会继续表现。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中不支付股息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.</p><p><blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，而且像法定货币一样，无论市场碰巧相信什么，都值得。当兴奋感消退时，他们可能会受到沉重打击。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个易于操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.</p><p><blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要小心投资的杠杆率。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险敞口（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote></p><p> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.</p><p><blockquote>我们需要加大对我们民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想回去工作。所谓的刺激资金并没有落入最需要的人手中。归根结底，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.</p><p><blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能会比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持液体，等待这个出来。春天甚至在最黑暗的冬天之后，合适的时机还会再次到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180268693","content_text":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.\nI started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.\nAt that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.\nThese contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.\nThe Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.\nIt is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us inThis Time is Differentthat throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”\nPrices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.\nRising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.\nWhere can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.\nBitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.\nWatch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.\nWe need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.\nThis is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389874728,"gmtCreate":1612757352464,"gmtModify":1703764660361,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okay!","listText":"Okay!","text":"Okay!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389874728","repostId":"2108336760","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389952801,"gmtCreate":1612670664503,"gmtModify":1703764212376,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The 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$rope","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389956401","repostId":"2109670511","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380700010,"gmtCreate":1612582264230,"gmtModify":1703763832969,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Rip","listText":"Rip","text":"Rip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380700010","repostId":"2109722637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380398814,"gmtCreate":1612512875738,"gmtModify":1703762899099,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cny canceled lah, which means,&nbsp;I won’t have to spend so much on&nbsp;new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"Cny canceled lah, which means,&nbsp;I won’t have to spend so much on&nbsp;new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"Cny canceled lah, which means, I won’t have to spend so much on new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380398814","repostId":"2109726787","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317432271,"gmtCreate":1612465643293,"gmtModify":1703762355990,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Maybe this isn’t a meme stock after all&nbsp;","listText":"Maybe this isn’t a meme stock after all&nbsp;","text":"Maybe this isn’t a meme stock after all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317432271","repostId":"1162866028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317436222,"gmtCreate":1612465490466,"gmtModify":1703762353927,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What does the community think about pot stocks ?&nbsp;","listText":"What does the community think about pot stocks ?&nbsp;","text":"What does the community think about pot stocks 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>Thanks Aunty Cathy&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>Thanks Aunty Cathy&nbsp;","text":"$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Thanks Aunty Cathy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9188ebb7857240ea98e2e80706d63f29","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136253893","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383977346,"gmtCreate":1612834280585,"gmtModify":1703765620980,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like!","listText":"Please like!","text":"Please like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383977346","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389952801,"gmtCreate":1612670664503,"gmtModify":1703764212376,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones&nbsp;","listText":"The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones&nbsp;","text":"The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389952801","repostId":"2109727286","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380700010,"gmtCreate":1612582264230,"gmtModify":1703763832969,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Rip","listText":"Rip","text":"Rip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380700010","repostId":"2109722637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363060322,"gmtCreate":1614083701466,"gmtModify":1634551250172,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Diamond hands&nbsp;","listText":"Diamond hands&nbsp;","text":"Diamond hands","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363060322","repostId":"1116870824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116870824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614051228,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1116870824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们在泡沫里吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价 2021 年股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116870824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indica","content":"<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’</p><p><blockquote>雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的泡沫指标显示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77位。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些投资者感到股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那样泡沫化。</blockquote></p><p> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，目前美国股市整体泡沫指标约为第 77 个百分位。在 2000 年泡沫和 1929 年泡沫中，这一综合指标的读数为第 100 个百分位，”达里奥周一在 LinkedIn 上发表的一篇博文中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> RAY DALIO</p><p><blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote></p><p> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水联合公司（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人，这家公司使他成为亿万富翁，他的言论一直吸引着人们的目光。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:</p><p><blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他使用六项指标创建了一个指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li>  <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li>  <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li>  <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li>  <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li>  <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>VIA RAY DALIO</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否打折了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即以前没有进入市场的买家）进入了市场？</li><li>情绪有多普遍看涨？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期采购（例如，建立库存、合同远期采购等）。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过雷·达里奥</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.</p><p><blockquote>基于这些因素，并利用 20 世纪 10 年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明，市场存在泡沫，但不一定处于他定义的泡沫中。</blockquote></p><p> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥发表上述言论之际，股市投资者正在与不断上升的债券收益率作斗争，10 年期美国国债正处于约一年来的最高水平，因为投资者正在为通胀上升和因 COVID-19 大流行病而萎靡不振的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.</p><p><blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是使道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，道琼斯工业平均指数的估值高得离谱。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们在泡沫里吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价 2021 年股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们在泡沫里吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价 2021 年股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 11:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’</p><p><blockquote>雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的泡沫指标显示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77位。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些投资者感到股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷-达里奥（Ray Dalio）的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那样泡沫化。</blockquote></p><p> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，目前美国股市整体泡沫指标约为第 77 个百分位。在 2000 年泡沫和 1929 年泡沫中，这一综合指标的读数为第 100 个百分位，”达里奥周一在 LinkedIn 上发表的一篇博文中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> RAY DALIO</p><p><blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote></p><p> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水联合公司（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人，这家公司使他成为亿万富翁，他的言论一直吸引着人们的目光。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:</p><p><blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他使用六项指标创建了一个指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li>  <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li>  <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li>  <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li>  <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li>  <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>VIA RAY DALIO</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否打折了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即以前没有进入市场的买家）进入了市场？</li><li>情绪有多普遍看涨？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期采购（例如，建立库存、合同远期采购等）。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过雷·达里奥</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.</p><p><blockquote>基于这些因素，并利用 20 世纪 10 年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明，市场存在泡沫，但不一定处于他定义的泡沫中。</blockquote></p><p> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达里奥发表上述言论之际，股市投资者正在与不断上升的债券收益率作斗争，10 年期美国国债正处于约一年来的最高水平，因为投资者正在为通胀上升和因 COVID-19 大流行病而萎靡不振的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.</p><p><blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是使道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，道琼斯工业平均指数的估值高得离谱。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116870824","content_text":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’\nThe stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.\n“In brief, the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall. In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.\n\nRAY DALIO\nDalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.\nThe hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:\n\nHow high are prices relative to traditional measures?\nAre prices discounting unsustainable conditions?\nHow many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?\nHow broadly bullish is sentiment?\nAre purchases being financed by high leverage?\nHave buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?\n\nVIA RAY DALIO\nBased on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.\nDalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.\nFiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388745482,"gmtCreate":1613102639646,"gmtModify":1634554514076,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Moon!&nbsp;","listText":"Moon!&nbsp;","text":"Moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388745482","repostId":"2110549049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381615037,"gmtCreate":1612961607629,"gmtModify":1703767508998,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381615037","repostId":"1186964240","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380398814,"gmtCreate":1612512875738,"gmtModify":1703762899099,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cny canceled lah, which means,&nbsp;I won’t have to spend so much on&nbsp;new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"Cny canceled lah, which means,&nbsp;I won’t have to spend so much on&nbsp;new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"Cny canceled lah, which means, I won’t have to spend so much on new clothes for my wife, sorry retail sector![龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380398814","repostId":"2109726787","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389690519,"gmtCreate":1612759657531,"gmtModify":1703764676090,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Damn","listText":"Damn","text":"Damn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389690519","repostId":"1180268693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180268693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612755259,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180268693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180268693","media":"Barrons","summary":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial mark","content":"<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.</p><p><blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以同样的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote></p><p> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.</p><p><blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲锣打鼓，担心迫在眉睫的金融危机风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续的增长导致美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.</p><p><blockquote>当时，这种观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘的。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济的疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩普遍预期。华尔街几乎没有动力看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用并支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡泡的欣快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但是高潮越大，下降就越糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.</p><p><blockquote>这些对通货膨胀和市场修正的逆向观点现在已经成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC大量IPO（始终是顶部的信号）、过高的市盈率和快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及零售驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是很久以前美联储释放的大量流动性引发的潜在条件的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方的实际利率都低于零。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府预计将推出刺激计划和其他支出的蓝色浪潮。此时，收入基础正在侵蚀，美国不再处于稳健的财政状况。政府难以有效地借款来应对赤字扩大和债务复合只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救济上花费了3万亿美元，而由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者有理由感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us in<i>This Time is Different</i>that throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储此后采取支持通胀的立场也就不足为奇了。一个不言而喻的目标是以牺牲美国人的利益为代价，侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会蚕食我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们<i>这次不一样</i>纵观历史，“拖欠政府债务的主要手段是.贬低铸币内容。现代印钞机只是实现这一目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法”。他们指出，“政府债务.往往是各种金融危机的统一问题”。</blockquote></p><p> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是被认为是通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也贬值了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.</p><p><blockquote>面对部分封闭、增长乏力的经济，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市的飙升。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote></p><p> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.</p><p><blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人可以在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少可以隐藏起来？以任何历史衡量标准来看，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通货膨胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制 “FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高的高速科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而投资最近放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商应该会继续表现。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中不支付股息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.</p><p><blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，而且像法定货币一样，无论市场碰巧相信什么，都值得。当兴奋感消退时，他们可能会受到沉重打击。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个易于操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.</p><p><blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要小心投资的杠杆率。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险敞口（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote></p><p> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.</p><p><blockquote>我们需要加大对我们民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想回去工作。所谓的刺激资金并没有落入最需要的人手中。归根结底，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.</p><p><blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能会比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持液体，等待这个出来。春天甚至在最黑暗的冬天之后，合适的时机还会再次到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?<blockquote>随着泡沫膨胀，投资者可以躲在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.</p><p><blockquote>让我们先解决一件事。我们显然正在目睹金融市场的投机泡沫。这次也不例外。这种狂热将以同样的方式结束：在眼泪中。</blockquote></p><p> I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.</p><p><blockquote>我在2020年年中开始敲锣打鼓，担心迫在眉睫的金融危机风险源于三个潜在原因：严重的市场调整、赤字和债务不可持续的增长导致美国财政状况恶化，以及可能随之而来的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.</p><p><blockquote>当时，这种观点遭到了强烈的怀疑。通货膨胀观点被认为是边缘的。受人尊敬的经济学家很快指出，相对于快速扩张的供应，货币需求不足，封锁经济的疲软，以及基于近期历史的通货紧缩普遍预期。华尔街几乎没有动力看涨期权市场泡沫。当乐观、活动和波动性很高时，就会收取费用并支付奖金，而不是通过对即将到来的厄运的预测。泡泡的欣快感就像最好的麻醉剂——既刺激又有点催眠。但是高潮越大，下降就越糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.</p><p><blockquote>这些对通货膨胀和市场修正的逆向观点现在已经成为主流。市场狂热的警告信号在比特币（一年内上涨300%）、SPAC大量IPO（始终是顶部的信号）、过高的市盈率和快速上涨的房地产价格中显而易见。这些，以及零售驱动的空头挤压和迷你泡沫，都是很久以前美联储释放的大量流动性引发的潜在条件的症状。然而，这一次在一个重要方面有所不同。当这个泡沫破裂时，美联储无法再通过降低利率来支撑市场。全球金融危机前的实际利率约为4%，现在几乎所有地方的实际利率都低于零。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府预计将推出刺激计划和其他支出的蓝色浪潮。此时，收入基础正在侵蚀，美国不再处于稳健的财政状况。政府难以有效地借款来应对赤字扩大和债务复合只是时间问题。仅在2020年，美国政府就在疫情救济上花费了3万亿美元，而由于我们最重要的经济州的严重封锁，国民收入下降了2.1万亿美元，其中许多州至今仍在继续。截至2020财年末，美国政府债务总额为27万亿美元，比2019年增长20%，是金融危机前的三倍。美联储已经吸收了很多这种增长。债券投资者有理由感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us in<i>This Time is Different</i>that throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储此后采取支持通胀的立场也就不足为奇了。一个不言而喻的目标是以牺牲美国人的利益为代价，侵蚀美国债务堆积如山的表土。通货膨胀是一种隐性税收，会蚕食我们的购买力。卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫提醒我们<i>这次不一样</i>纵观历史，“拖欠政府债务的主要手段是.贬低铸币内容。现代印钞机只是实现这一目的的一种技术先进、效率更高的方法”。他们指出，“政府债务.往往是各种金融危机的统一问题”。</blockquote></p><p> Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>工业金属、能源和食品等通胀风向标的价格目前正在上涨。自1970年以来，美元已经失去了85%的购买力。虽然这在很大程度上可以归因于20世纪70年代的高通胀，但即使是被认为是通货紧缩的21世纪，自2000年以来，美元价值也贬值了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.</p><p><blockquote>面对部分封闭、增长乏力的经济，通胀预期上升在很大程度上解释了股市的飙升。随着封锁和旅行限制的放松，被压抑的需求将给全球供应链带来压力，从而给价格带来压力。随着经济重新开放，我们预计最早在今年春天就会看到通胀进一步加速。</blockquote></p><p> Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.</p><p><blockquote>在这种环境下，一个人可以在哪里茁壮成长，或者至少可以隐藏起来？以任何历史衡量标准来看，美国股市都被严重高估，但债券和现金都是通货膨胀的危险区。虽然传统观点认为要保持投资，但现在可能是拿出一些筹码的好时机。抵制 “FOMO”，害怕错过。如果必须继续投资，请避免估值最高的高速科技股和成长型股票的诱惑，转而投资最近放弃的派息价值股和新兴市场。对通胀敏感的大宗商品（食品、金属和能源）生产商应该会继续表现。黄金作为价值储存和通胀对冲有着数千年的历史，但在此过程中不支付股息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.</p><p><blockquote>比特币同样没有收益。加密货币没有内在价值，而且像法定货币一样，无论市场碰巧相信什么，都值得。当兴奋感消退时，他们可能会受到沉重打击。此外，鉴于鲸鱼的所有权高度集中，比特币是一个易于操纵的堆叠游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.</p><p><blockquote>无论是证券还是房地产，都要小心投资的杠杆率。如果市场崩溃，杠杆将迅速侵蚀剩余价值。寻找退休账户中隐藏的风险敞口（包括通货膨胀）。投资与市场无关的硬资产。保持流动性以利用不可避免的修正。</blockquote></p><p> We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.</p><p><blockquote>我们需要加大对我们民选官员的压力，让他们削减猪肉，重新开放我们的经济。美国人想回去工作。所谓的刺激资金并没有落入最需要的人手中。归根结底，推动增长和繁荣的是实体经济，而不是金融市场。这需要当地企业开放，工人重新参与，并进行生产性资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.</p><p><blockquote>这不是厄运和黑暗。由于问题不是银行业信贷危机，而且基础经济仍然健康（尽管有所减弱），调整后的复苏可能会比金融危机后更快、更容易。虽然持续的通货膨胀会造成一系列问题，但它通常会支持更充分就业，生产者和消费者都会适应不断变化的价格环境。与此同时，最好保持液体，等待这个出来。春天甚至在最黑暗的冬天之后，合适的时机还会再次到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180268693","content_text":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.\nI started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.\nAt that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.\nThese contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.\nThe Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.\nIt is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us inThis Time is Differentthat throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”\nPrices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.\nRising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.\nWhere can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.\nBitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.\nWatch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.\nWe need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.\nThis is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}