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Wahahoho

Wahahoho

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2021-06-21

Like and comment pls!

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2021-06-19

Like and comment pls

ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>

2021-07-22

Nice!

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2021-07-01

Nice! To the moon!!

Why NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote>

2021-05-18

Like and comment plz

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2021-06-09

Comment and like!

WallStreetBets Has A New Trading Strategy To Target Stocks Beyond AMC, GameStop, Clover Health, Says Cramer<blockquote>克莱默表示，WallStreetBets制定了新的交易策略，目标是AMC、游戏驿站、Clover Health以外的股票</blockquote>

2021-06-04

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Can buy still?

2021-07-11

Amazing

5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>

2021-07-05

EV is the way

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2021-06-01

Let’s go!

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ftw!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895140176","repostId":"1106699544","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1106699544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628723648,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106699544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-12 07:14","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Nio Stock: EV Maker's Second-Quarter Loss Narrows as Revenue Rises<blockquote>蔚来股票：随着收入增长，电动汽车制造商第二季度亏损收窄</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106699544","media":"The Street","summary":"Nio beats Wall Street's expectations as second-quarter vehicle sales surge 127%.Nio  -Get Report posted better-than-expected second-quarter earnings Wednesday as the Chinese electric vehicle company reported a jump in revenue and raised its guidance.Shares of the Shanghai company were essentially flat at $43.99 in after-hours trading.Nio reported a net loss of 7 cents a share. The adjusted loss coming to 3 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were calling for a loss of 9 cents a share.Rev","content":"<p>  Nio beats Wall Street's expectations as second-quarter vehicle sales surge 127%.  Nio&nbsp;(<b>NIO</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;posted better-than-expected second-quarter earnings Wednesday as&nbsp;the Chinese electric vehicle company reported a jump in revenue and raised its guidance.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来第二季度汽车销量飙升127%，超出华尔街预期。蔚来(<b>蔚来</b>)-Get Report周三公布了好于预期的第二季度收益，这家中国电动汽车公司报告收入大幅增长并上调了指引。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the Shanghai company were essentially flat at $43.99 in after-hours trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a746dc007dc46d29bf188a45bbc86aec\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Nio reported a net loss of&nbsp;7 cents a share. The adjusted loss coming to 3 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were calling for a loss of 9 cents a share.</p><p><blockquote>这家上海公司的股价在盘后交易中基本持平于43.99美元。蔚来报告每股净亏损7美分。调整后每股亏损为3美分。FactSet调查的分析师预计每股亏损9美分。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue totaled $1.31 billion, up 127.2% from a year ago. The FactSet consensus called for revenue of $1.30 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63e109b5f649ae97d7a9d377b88b71e9\" tg-width=\"1797\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Vehicle sales came to $1.23 billion, up 127% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>收入总计13.1亿美元，同比增长127.2%。FactSet共识要求收入为13亿美元。汽车销售额达到12.3亿美元，同比增长127%。</blockquote></p><p> The company said the increase in vehicle sales in the quarter was mainly attributed to higher deliveries achieved from more product mix offered to Nio's users.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，本季度汽车销量的增长主要归因于向蔚来用户提供的更多产品组合实现了更高的交付量。</blockquote></p><p> Niodelivered 7,931 vehicles in July, up 124.5% year-over-year,&nbsp;but down 1.9% from 8,083 in June.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf75d58d683b265aadac1f3bad5be7c\" tg-width=\"1690\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the third quarter, Nio is said it expects to deliver between 23,00 and 25,000 vehicles, up 88.4% to 104.8% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车7月份交付了7,931辆汽车，同比增长124.5%，但较6月份的8,083辆下降了1.9%。蔚来表示，第三季度预计将交付23,000至25,000辆汽车，同比增长88.4%至104.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue for the third quarter is expected to range from $1.38 billion to $1.49 billion, up 96.9% to 112.8% from a year ago.&nbsp;FactSet is calling for revenue of $1.32 billion.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度营收预计在13.8亿美元至14.9亿美元之间，同比增长96.9%至112.8%。FactSet预计营收为13.2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> William Bin Li, Nio's founder, chairman and CEO, said in a statement that the company achieved&nbsp;a record-high quarterly delivery of 21,896 vehicles in the second quarter of 2021:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来创始人、董事长兼首席执行官William Bin Li在一份声明中表示，该公司在2021年第二季度实现了创纪录的21896辆季度交付量：</blockquote></p><p> \"While the global supply chain still faces uncertainties, we have been working closely with our partners to improve the overall supply chain production capacity,\" Bin said. \"We aim to deliver three new products based on the NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022, including ET7, a flagship premium smart electric sedan.\"</p><p><blockquote>Bin表示：“虽然全球供应链仍面临不确定性，但我们一直在与合作伙伴密切合作，以提高整体供应链产能。”“我们的目标是在2022年交付三款基于蔚来技术平台2.0的新产品，包括旗舰级高端智能电动轿车ET7。”</blockquote></p><p> Steven Wei Feng, Nio's chief financial officer, said&nbsp;vehicle margin and gross margin reached 20.3% and 18.6% respectively.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来首席财务官Steven Wei Feng表示，整车利润率和毛利率分别达到20.3%和18.6%。</blockquote></p><p> The increase of vehicle margin was mainly driven by the increase of vehicle delivery volume, higher average selling price, as well as lower material cost, the company said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，车辆利润率的增长主要是由于车辆交付量的增加、平均售价的提高以及材料成本的降低。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Nio&nbsp;saidthat by the end of 2025it planned to add 3,700 battery-swap stations, which would give it 4,000.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，蔚来表示，计划到2025年底增加3,700个电池交换站，这将使其达到4,000个。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nio Stock: EV Maker's Second-Quarter Loss Narrows as Revenue Rises<blockquote>蔚来股票：随着收入增长，电动汽车制造商第二季度亏损收窄</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNio Stock: EV Maker's Second-Quarter Loss Narrows as Revenue Rises<blockquote>蔚来股票：随着收入增长，电动汽车制造商第二季度亏损收窄</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-12 07:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Nio beats Wall Street's expectations as second-quarter vehicle sales surge 127%.  Nio&nbsp;(<b>NIO</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;posted better-than-expected second-quarter earnings Wednesday as&nbsp;the Chinese electric vehicle company reported a jump in revenue and raised its guidance.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来第二季度汽车销量飙升127%，超出华尔街预期。蔚来(<b>蔚来</b>)-Get Report周三公布了好于预期的第二季度收益，这家中国电动汽车公司报告收入大幅增长并上调了指引。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the Shanghai company were essentially flat at $43.99 in after-hours trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a746dc007dc46d29bf188a45bbc86aec\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Nio reported a net loss of&nbsp;7 cents a share. The adjusted loss coming to 3 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were calling for a loss of 9 cents a share.</p><p><blockquote>这家上海公司的股价在盘后交易中基本持平于43.99美元。蔚来报告每股净亏损7美分。调整后每股亏损为3美分。FactSet调查的分析师预计每股亏损9美分。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue totaled $1.31 billion, up 127.2% from a year ago. The FactSet consensus called for revenue of $1.30 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63e109b5f649ae97d7a9d377b88b71e9\" tg-width=\"1797\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Vehicle sales came to $1.23 billion, up 127% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>收入总计13.1亿美元，同比增长127.2%。FactSet共识要求收入为13亿美元。汽车销售额达到12.3亿美元，同比增长127%。</blockquote></p><p> The company said the increase in vehicle sales in the quarter was mainly attributed to higher deliveries achieved from more product mix offered to Nio's users.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，本季度汽车销量的增长主要归因于向蔚来用户提供的更多产品组合实现了更高的交付量。</blockquote></p><p> Niodelivered 7,931 vehicles in July, up 124.5% year-over-year,&nbsp;but down 1.9% from 8,083 in June.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf75d58d683b265aadac1f3bad5be7c\" tg-width=\"1690\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the third quarter, Nio is said it expects to deliver between 23,00 and 25,000 vehicles, up 88.4% to 104.8% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车7月份交付了7,931辆汽车，同比增长124.5%，但较6月份的8,083辆下降了1.9%。蔚来表示，第三季度预计将交付23,000至25,000辆汽车，同比增长88.4%至104.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue for the third quarter is expected to range from $1.38 billion to $1.49 billion, up 96.9% to 112.8% from a year ago.&nbsp;FactSet is calling for revenue of $1.32 billion.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度营收预计在13.8亿美元至14.9亿美元之间，同比增长96.9%至112.8%。FactSet预计营收为13.2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> William Bin Li, Nio's founder, chairman and CEO, said in a statement that the company achieved&nbsp;a record-high quarterly delivery of 21,896 vehicles in the second quarter of 2021:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来创始人、董事长兼首席执行官William Bin Li在一份声明中表示，该公司在2021年第二季度实现了创纪录的21896辆季度交付量：</blockquote></p><p> \"While the global supply chain still faces uncertainties, we have been working closely with our partners to improve the overall supply chain production capacity,\" Bin said. \"We aim to deliver three new products based on the NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022, including ET7, a flagship premium smart electric sedan.\"</p><p><blockquote>Bin表示：“虽然全球供应链仍面临不确定性，但我们一直在与合作伙伴密切合作，以提高整体供应链产能。”“我们的目标是在2022年交付三款基于蔚来技术平台2.0的新产品，包括旗舰级高端智能电动轿车ET7。”</blockquote></p><p> Steven Wei Feng, Nio's chief financial officer, said&nbsp;vehicle margin and gross margin reached 20.3% and 18.6% respectively.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来首席财务官Steven Wei Feng表示，整车利润率和毛利率分别达到20.3%和18.6%。</blockquote></p><p> The increase of vehicle margin was mainly driven by the increase of vehicle delivery volume, higher average selling price, as well as lower material cost, the company said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，车辆利润率的增长主要是由于车辆交付量的增加、平均售价的提高以及材料成本的降低。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Nio&nbsp;saidthat by the end of 2025it planned to add 3,700 battery-swap stations, which would give it 4,000.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，蔚来表示，计划到2025年底增加3,700个电池交换站，这将使其达到4,000个。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nio-stock-ev-makers-second-quarter-loss-narrows-as-revenue-rises\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nio-stock-ev-makers-second-quarter-loss-narrows-as-revenue-rises","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106699544","content_text":"Nio beats Wall Street's expectations as second-quarter vehicle sales surge 127%.\n\nNio (NIO) -Get Report posted better-than-expected second-quarter earnings Wednesday as the Chinese electric vehicle company reported a jump in revenue and raised its guidance.\nShares of the Shanghai company were essentially flat at $43.99 in after-hours trading.Nio reported a net loss of 7 cents a share. The adjusted loss coming to 3 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were calling for a loss of 9 cents a share.\nRevenue totaled $1.31 billion, up 127.2% from a year ago. The FactSet consensus called for revenue of $1.30 billion.Vehicle sales came to $1.23 billion, up 127% from a year ago.\nThe company said the increase in vehicle sales in the quarter was mainly attributed to higher deliveries achieved from more product mix offered to Nio's users.\nNiodelivered 7,931 vehicles in July, up 124.5% year-over-year, but down 1.9% from 8,083 in June.For the third quarter, Nio is said it expects to deliver between 23,00 and 25,000 vehicles, up 88.4% to 104.8% from a year ago.\nRevenue for the third quarter is expected to range from $1.38 billion to $1.49 billion, up 96.9% to 112.8% from a year ago. FactSet is calling for revenue of $1.32 billion.\nWilliam Bin Li, Nio's founder, chairman and CEO, said in a statement that the company achieved a record-high quarterly delivery of 21,896 vehicles in the second quarter of 2021:\n\"While the global supply chain still faces uncertainties, we have been working closely with our partners to improve the overall supply chain production capacity,\" Bin said. \"We aim to deliver three new products based on the NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022, including ET7, a flagship premium smart electric sedan.\"\nSteven Wei Feng, Nio's chief financial officer, said vehicle margin and gross margin reached 20.3% and 18.6% respectively.\nThe increase of vehicle margin was mainly driven by the increase of vehicle delivery volume, higher average selling price, as well as lower material cost, the company said.\nLast month, Nio saidthat by the end of 2025it planned to add 3,700 battery-swap stations, which would give it 4,000.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802920781,"gmtCreate":1627708471243,"gmtModify":1631890878559,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy!","listText":"Buy!","text":"Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802920781","repostId":"1166392380","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800773494,"gmtCreate":1627335859318,"gmtModify":1631890878562,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At first was good, then came the dip","listText":"At first was good, then came the dip","text":"At first was good, then came the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800773494","repostId":"1150818931","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150818931","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627309255,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150818931?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 22:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks surged in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股周一早盘飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150818931","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks surged in Monday morning trading.Lucid Motors spikes 12%,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto jumped 4","content":"<p>EV stocks surged in Monday morning trading.Lucid Motors spikes&nbsp;12%,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;jumped&nbsp;4%,Tesla&nbsp;and&nbsp;Nio&nbsp;rose&nbsp;2%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股周一早盘飙升。Lucid Motors飙升12%，小鹏汽车和理想汽车上涨4%，特斯拉和蔚来上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68b40eae8375c009ccfbb5d7183d05ce\" tg-width=\"354\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks surged in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股周一早盘飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks surged in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股周一早盘飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-26 22:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV stocks surged in Monday morning trading.Lucid Motors spikes&nbsp;12%,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;jumped&nbsp;4%,Tesla&nbsp;and&nbsp;Nio&nbsp;rose&nbsp;2%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股周一早盘飙升。Lucid Motors飙升12%，小鹏汽车和理想汽车上涨4%，特斯拉和蔚来上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68b40eae8375c009ccfbb5d7183d05ce\" tg-width=\"354\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","FSR":"菲斯克","LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150818931","content_text":"EV stocks surged in Monday morning trading.Lucid Motors spikes 12%,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto jumped 4%,Tesla and Nio rose 2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"NKLA":0.9,"RIDE":0.9,"LI":0.9,"LCID":0.9,"FSR":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800923309,"gmtCreate":1627273088901,"gmtModify":1631890878569,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy?","listText":"Buy?","text":"Buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800923309","repostId":"1177294462","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174277092,"gmtCreate":1627106834616,"gmtModify":1631890878570,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio!","listText":"Nio!","text":"Nio!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174277092","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售价格较高的汽车，与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在近期。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售价格较高的汽车，与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在近期。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175409266,"gmtCreate":1627044771755,"gmtModify":1631890878576,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy!","listText":"Buy!","text":"Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175409266","repostId":"2153092983","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176793580,"gmtCreate":1626914773240,"gmtModify":1631890878581,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176793580","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178004954,"gmtCreate":1626769912778,"gmtModify":1631890878585,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can 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07:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159307278","media":"Barrons","summary":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling s","content":"<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德·布兰森计划于周日飞往太空，这对于刚刚起步的太空旅游业来说可能是一个里程碑式的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着70岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次客运太空之旅，击败杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运航班一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些最近的历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河Unity 22太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午9点左右从新墨西哥州的维珍航天港发射。此次发布会可以在公司网站和下面的《巴伦周刊》上进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会飞到多高的太空？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河的VSS Unity航天器将达到约3马赫的速度，即音速的三倍，并上升到约30万英尺，即57英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的10倍，但仍然被认为是太空的边缘。亚轨道飞行不会通过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来定义外太空边界的。那条线大约在62英里处。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划让乘客在航班上经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游向前迈出的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。加入公司创始人的将是两名飞行员；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教练；Colin Bennett，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特(Ken Herbert)认为，银河有可能通过布兰森带来付费客户来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将在本月晚些时候乘坐他的航班将第一位付费乘客送往太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外逃对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使Galactic离完全商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面投入使用，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的费用约为5400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计Galactic 2021年的销售额约为300万美元，2022年将增长至5100万美元，到2025年将增长至5.55亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在2024年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>该航班和相关新闻报道也代表了公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说显然是积极的，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经反映在维珍银河的股票中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约120%，过去12个月上涨超过200%，使这家初创公司的市值约为110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功飞行后周一没有上涨，投资者不应该感到失望。公司的最终价值将在未来决定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢该股便宜的时候。早在9月份，所有研究银河股票的分析师都给予买入评级。标准普尔500指数股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9月份股价为25美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股50美元以上，只有30%的分析师将该股评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 07:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德·布兰森计划于周日飞往太空，这对于刚刚起步的太空旅游业来说可能是一个里程碑式的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着70岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次客运太空之旅，击败杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运航班一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些最近的历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河Unity 22太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午9点左右从新墨西哥州的维珍航天港发射。此次发布会可以在公司网站和下面的《巴伦周刊》上进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会飞到多高的太空？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河的VSS Unity航天器将达到约3马赫的速度，即音速的三倍，并上升到约30万英尺，即57英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的10倍，但仍然被认为是太空的边缘。亚轨道飞行不会通过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来定义外太空边界的。那条线大约在62英里处。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划让乘客在航班上经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游向前迈出的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。加入公司创始人的将是两名飞行员；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教练；Colin Bennett，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特(Ken Herbert)认为，银河有可能通过布兰森带来付费客户来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将在本月晚些时候乘坐他的航班将第一位付费乘客送往太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外逃对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使Galactic离完全商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面投入使用，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的费用约为5400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计Galactic 2021年的销售额约为300万美元，2022年将增长至5100万美元，到2025年将增长至5.55亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在2024年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>该航班和相关新闻报道也代表了公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说显然是积极的，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经反映在维珍银河的股票中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约120%，过去12个月上涨超过200%，使这家初创公司的市值约为110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功飞行后周一没有上涨，投资者不应该感到失望。公司的最终价值将在未来决定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢该股便宜的时候。早在9月份，所有研究银河股票的分析师都给予买入评级。标准普尔500指数股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9月份股价为25美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股50美元以上，只有30%的分析师将该股评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159307278","content_text":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling space tourism industry.\nSo long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.\nHere’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.\nWhen Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?\nThe Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the company’s website and on Barron’s below.\nHow High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?\nGalactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.\nBlue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.\nHow Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?\nNothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.\nStill, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes it’s possible that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.\nA move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for $28 million.\nA ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run about $250,000.\nWhat Does the Flight Mean for Investors?\nThe continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.\nOnce fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.\nAnalysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.\nThe flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.\nHow Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?\nA successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.\n\nThe stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.\nInvestors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.\nAnalysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for S&P 500 stocks is about 55%.\nShares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141516127,"gmtCreate":1625879979469,"gmtModify":1631892134051,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LAI AH","listText":"LAI AH","text":"LAI AH","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141516127","repostId":"1173374462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173374462","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625840008,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173374462?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 22:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stocks Like GameStop and AMC Reflect Market Reality<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC等模因股票反映了市场现实</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173374462","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Gamestop (GME) made some investors rich… and then it broke many more. Investing in AMC Entertainment","content":"<p>Gamestop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;made some investors rich… and then it broke many more. Investing in AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;did the exact same thing. These two stocks represent, if not failing businesses, at least ailing ones; companies that struggled to keep up with the new economy even before the pandemic shut down large swaths of it. Yet over the past few months they have posted some of the most volatile gains and losses on the market.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站(<b>GME</b>）让一些投资者变得富有……然后又破产了更多。投资AMC院线（<b>AMC</b>）做了完全相同的事情。这两只股票即使不是失败的企业，也至少代表了陷入困境的企业；甚至在大流行之前就努力跟上新经济的公司就关闭了大部分新经济。然而，在过去的几个月里，他们公布了市场上一些最不稳定的收益和损失。</blockquote></p><p> How?</p><p><blockquote>如何？</blockquote></p><p> It’s down to what Real Money's Timothy Collins calls the market of “meme stock hyperbole.” But, he writes, is it really all that different from how trading has always worked?</p><p><blockquote>这取决于Real Money的Timothy Collins评级市场的“模因股票夸张”。但是，他写道，这真的与交易一直以来的运作方式有那么大的不同吗？</blockquote></p><p> Have you ever really thought about the phrases 'to the moon' or 'conviction buy,' and how they mess with out perception of fair value?</p><p><blockquote>您是否真正想过“登月”或“信念购买”这两个短语，以及它们如何扰乱我们对公允价值的看法？</blockquote></p><p> \"Initially, I rolled my eyes at the continued use of the phrase 'To The Moon,'\" Collins says. \"It's not like 'Strong Buy with a price target of $65', for instance. 'To the moon' is completely arbitrary and open to interpretation, but then again so are most things about valuation, when you think about it,\" Collins wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“最初，我对继续使用‘去月球’这个词翻了个白眼，”柯林斯说。“例如，这不像‘强力买入，目标价为65美元’。‘登月’完全是任意的，可以进行解释，但话又说回来，当你仔细想想时，大多数关于估值的事情也是如此，”柯林斯写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"For instance, when an analyst pounds the table on a stock, how is that different from 'to the moon?' Or when someone says, 'all in.' Are they really all in? Did they cash in all their assets, pool the liquidity, and buy every share they possibly could? Probably not. Actually, I'd say definitely not 99.9999% of the time. Of course, there's always that one person,\" Collins said.</p><p><blockquote>“例如，当分析师在一只股票上敲打桌子时，这与‘飞向月球’有什么不同？或者当有人说‘全押’时。他们真的全押了吗？他们是否兑现了所有资产，汇集了流动性，并尽可能地购买了每一股？可能不会。事实上，我会说绝对不是99.9999%的情况。当然，总有那么一个人，”柯林斯说。</blockquote></p><p> \"But the point isWall Street has been arbitraryfor years. We can't even have a standard rating system. Is it 'Neutral' or 'Hold?' And really, do I want to hold something that is only in the middle of your range? No.\"</p><p><blockquote>“但关键是，华尔街多年来一直是武断的。我们甚至不能有一个标准的评级系统。它是‘中性’还是‘持有’？说真的，我想持有只在你的范围中间的东西吗？不。”</blockquote></p><p> Collins writes, \"The system should be 'buy' or 'sell.' That's it. Black or white. Own or don't own.\"</p><p><blockquote>柯林斯写道，“系统应该是‘买入’或‘卖出’。就是这样。黑或白。拥有或不拥有。”</blockquote></p><p> Assets like GameStop and even cryptocurrency seem to be selling on nothing more than pure emotion. Investors are taking these products for a joy ride, and that tends to send prices flying up and down the ladder.</p><p><blockquote>像游戏驿站甚至加密货币这样的资产似乎只不过是纯粹的情绪在出售。投资者正在享受这些产品，这往往会导致价格飞涨。</blockquote></p><p> That’s confusing, to be sure. Just, before you go throwing your hands in the air, it’s important to remember that the stock market has always been at least a little bit arbitrary.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这很令人困惑。只是，在你举手之前，重要的是要记住股票市场总是至少有一点武断。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stocks Like GameStop and AMC Reflect Market Reality<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC等模因股票反映了市场现实</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stocks Like GameStop and AMC Reflect Market Reality<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC等模因股票反映了市场现实</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 22:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Gamestop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;made some investors rich… and then it broke many more. Investing in AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;did the exact same thing. These two stocks represent, if not failing businesses, at least ailing ones; companies that struggled to keep up with the new economy even before the pandemic shut down large swaths of it. Yet over the past few months they have posted some of the most volatile gains and losses on the market.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站(<b>GME</b>）让一些投资者变得富有……然后又破产了更多。投资AMC院线（<b>AMC</b>）做了完全相同的事情。这两只股票即使不是失败的企业，也至少代表了陷入困境的企业；甚至在大流行之前就努力跟上新经济的公司就关闭了大部分新经济。然而，在过去的几个月里，他们公布了市场上一些最不稳定的收益和损失。</blockquote></p><p> How?</p><p><blockquote>如何？</blockquote></p><p> It’s down to what Real Money's Timothy Collins calls the market of “meme stock hyperbole.” But, he writes, is it really all that different from how trading has always worked?</p><p><blockquote>这取决于Real Money的Timothy Collins评级市场的“模因股票夸张”。但是，他写道，这真的与交易一直以来的运作方式有那么大的不同吗？</blockquote></p><p> Have you ever really thought about the phrases 'to the moon' or 'conviction buy,' and how they mess with out perception of fair value?</p><p><blockquote>您是否真正想过“登月”或“信念购买”这两个短语，以及它们如何扰乱我们对公允价值的看法？</blockquote></p><p> \"Initially, I rolled my eyes at the continued use of the phrase 'To The Moon,'\" Collins says. \"It's not like 'Strong Buy with a price target of $65', for instance. 'To the moon' is completely arbitrary and open to interpretation, but then again so are most things about valuation, when you think about it,\" Collins wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“最初，我对继续使用‘去月球’这个词翻了个白眼，”柯林斯说。“例如，这不像‘强力买入，目标价为65美元’。‘登月’完全是任意的，可以进行解释，但话又说回来，当你仔细想想时，大多数关于估值的事情也是如此，”柯林斯写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"For instance, when an analyst pounds the table on a stock, how is that different from 'to the moon?' Or when someone says, 'all in.' Are they really all in? Did they cash in all their assets, pool the liquidity, and buy every share they possibly could? Probably not. Actually, I'd say definitely not 99.9999% of the time. Of course, there's always that one person,\" Collins said.</p><p><blockquote>“例如，当分析师在一只股票上敲打桌子时，这与‘飞向月球’有什么不同？或者当有人说‘全押’时。他们真的全押了吗？他们是否兑现了所有资产，汇集了流动性，并尽可能地购买了每一股？可能不会。事实上，我会说绝对不是99.9999%的情况。当然，总有那么一个人，”柯林斯说。</blockquote></p><p> \"But the point isWall Street has been arbitraryfor years. We can't even have a standard rating system. Is it 'Neutral' or 'Hold?' And really, do I want to hold something that is only in the middle of your range? No.\"</p><p><blockquote>“但关键是，华尔街多年来一直是武断的。我们甚至不能有一个标准的评级系统。它是‘中性’还是‘持有’？说真的，我想持有只在你的范围中间的东西吗？不。”</blockquote></p><p> Collins writes, \"The system should be 'buy' or 'sell.' That's it. Black or white. Own or don't own.\"</p><p><blockquote>柯林斯写道，“系统应该是‘买入’或‘卖出’。就是这样。黑或白。拥有或不拥有。”</blockquote></p><p> Assets like GameStop and even cryptocurrency seem to be selling on nothing more than pure emotion. Investors are taking these products for a joy ride, and that tends to send prices flying up and down the ladder.</p><p><blockquote>像游戏驿站甚至加密货币这样的资产似乎只不过是纯粹的情绪在出售。投资者正在享受这些产品，这往往会导致价格飞涨。</blockquote></p><p> That’s confusing, to be sure. Just, before you go throwing your hands in the air, it’s important to remember that the stock market has always been at least a little bit arbitrary.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这很令人困惑。只是，在你举手之前，重要的是要记住股票市场总是至少有一点武断。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meme-stocks-like-gamestop-amc-reflect-market-reality\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meme-stocks-like-gamestop-amc-reflect-market-reality","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173374462","content_text":"Gamestop (GME) made some investors rich… and then it broke many more. Investing in AMC Entertainment (AMC) did the exact same thing. These two stocks represent, if not failing businesses, at least ailing ones; companies that struggled to keep up with the new economy even before the pandemic shut down large swaths of it. Yet over the past few months they have posted some of the most volatile gains and losses on the market.\nHow?\nIt’s down to what Real Money's Timothy Collins calls the market of “meme stock hyperbole.” But, he writes, is it really all that different from how trading has always worked?\nHave you ever really thought about the phrases 'to the moon' or 'conviction buy,' and how they mess with out perception of fair value?\n\"Initially, I rolled my eyes at the continued use of the phrase 'To The Moon,'\" Collins says. \"It's not like 'Strong Buy with a price target of $65', for instance. 'To the moon' is completely arbitrary and open to interpretation, but then again so are most things about valuation, when you think about it,\" Collins wrote.\n\"For instance, when an analyst pounds the table on a stock, how is that different from 'to the moon?' Or when someone says, 'all in.' Are they really all in? Did they cash in all their assets, pool the liquidity, and buy every share they possibly could? Probably not. Actually, I'd say definitely not 99.9999% of the time. Of course, there's always that one person,\" Collins said.\n\"But the point isWall Street has been arbitraryfor years. We can't even have a standard rating system. Is it 'Neutral' or 'Hold?' And really, do I want to hold something that is only in the middle of your range? No.\"\nCollins writes, \"The system should be 'buy' or 'sell.' That's it. Black or white. Own or don't own.\"\nAssets like GameStop and even cryptocurrency seem to be selling on nothing more than pure emotion. Investors are taking these products for a joy ride, and that tends to send prices flying up and down the ladder.\nThat’s confusing, to be sure. Just, before you go throwing your hands in the air, it’s important to remember that the stock market has always been at least a little bit arbitrary.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154048251,"gmtCreate":1625463423173,"gmtModify":1631892134063,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"EV is the way","listText":"EV is the way","text":"EV is the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154048251","repostId":"1193340451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152580684,"gmtCreate":1625311872448,"gmtModify":1631892134074,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment thanks!","listText":"Like and comment thanks!","text":"Like and comment thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152580684","repostId":"1146176335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146176335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277627,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146176335?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146176335","media":"The Street","summary":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?Alibaba  -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.Howeve","content":"<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型股和超大型股同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直严重落后。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW(<b>巴巴</b>）-今年到目前为止，Get报告一直是一只狗。该股在2020年第四季度一直交易良好，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁金服的首次公开募股，然后深入调查了阿里巴巴-SW并加大了力度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是当我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创纪录的罚款，希望将监管问题抛在脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并没有像多头希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续超越历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG股票的交易继续非常好。Alphabet(<b>GOOGL</b>)-Get Reportis是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近40%，而Netflix(<b>NFLX</b>）-Get报告最差，下降了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点差得多，下跌了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转困境并开始反弹？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权我是一个无可救药的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好，增长强劲。就像亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取报告。最终，它会表现得更好——这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续守住210美元至212美元区域，最近已清除下行阻力（蓝线）。也就是说，还有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票在21周移动平均线以及21个月和10个月移动平均线上苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有很多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股票能够在本周下跌时守住10周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在210美元水平和200周移动平均线以上，我对阿里巴巴-SW进入未来六个月感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破235美元——从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍——可能会上涨至250美元，然后是263美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>请记住风险，但这可能是一场稳固的下半场反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型股和超大型股同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直严重落后。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW(<b>巴巴</b>）-今年到目前为止，Get报告一直是一只狗。该股在2020年第四季度一直交易良好，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁金服的首次公开募股，然后深入调查了阿里巴巴-SW并加大了力度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是当我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创纪录的罚款，希望将监管问题抛在脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并没有像多头希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续超越历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG股票的交易继续非常好。Alphabet(<b>GOOGL</b>)-Get Reportis是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近40%，而Netflix(<b>NFLX</b>）-Get报告最差，下降了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点差得多，下跌了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转困境并开始反弹？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权我是一个无可救药的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好，增长强劲。就像亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取报告。最终，它会表现得更好——这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续守住210美元至212美元区域，最近已清除下行阻力（蓝线）。也就是说，还有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票在21周移动平均线以及21个月和10个月移动平均线上苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有很多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股票能够在本周下跌时守住10周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在210美元水平和200周移动平均线以上，我对阿里巴巴-SW进入未来六个月感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破235美元——从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍——可能会上涨至250美元，然后是263美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>请记住风险，但这可能是一场稳固的下半场反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146176335","content_text":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?\n\nAlibaba (BABA) -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.\nRegulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.\nInvestors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.\nHowever, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.\nAll of this comes as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.\nIt also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet (GOOGL) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix (NFLX) -Get Report is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.\nAlibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.\nCan it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?\n\nCall me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.\nThe overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better - it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”\nShares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.\nSpecifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.\nLet’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.\nHowever, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.\nA push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.\nKeep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09618":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151675916,"gmtCreate":1625091979135,"gmtModify":1631892134087,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice! To the moon!!","listText":"Nice! To the moon!!","text":"Nice! To the moon!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151675916","repostId":"1121473384","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121473384","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625067394,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121473384?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 23:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121473384","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIOwere moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.As of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.In a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $5","content":"<p>A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来公布6月份销售报告之前，华尔街的一份看涨报告提高了人们的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>(NYSE:NIO)were moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商的股票<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）周三早盘走高，此前一位华尔街分析师在一份看涨报告中上调了该行对该股的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> As of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午11点35分，蔚来美国存托股票较周二收盘价上涨约5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $58.30, while reiterating his previous buy rating on the shares.</p><p><blockquote>在周二下午发布的一份报告中。花旗银行分析师Jeff Chung将该行对蔚来的目标股价从58.30美元上调至72美元，同时重申了此前对该股的买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Chung wrote that he expects NIO to report \"robust shipment volume\" for June, which he thinks will be followed by sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. He now sees NIO delivering 93,000 vehicles in 2021, up from his earlier estimate of 90,000, and has raised his forecasts for 2022 and 2024 while also increasing his target&nbsp;price-to-earnings multiple&nbsp;for NIO's shares.</p><p><blockquote>Chung写道，他预计蔚来6月份将报告“强劲的出货量”，他认为随后将在2021年第三和第四季度实现环比增长。他现在预计蔚来将在2021年交付93,000辆汽车，高于他之前估计的90,000辆，并上调了对2022年和2024年的预测，同时还提高了蔚来股票的目标市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> NIO typically releases its monthly delivery totals shortly after month-end, meaning we could see NIO's results for June as soon as Thursday morning. The company's guidance, which it reiterated earlier this month, calls for a delivery total of&nbsp;between 21,000 and 22,000 vehicles&nbsp;for the second quarter. Through the end of May, it had&nbsp;delivered 13,183 vehicles&nbsp;despite production disruptions caused by shortages of computer chips.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来通常会在月底后不久发布每月交付总量，这意味着我们最早可以在周四上午看到蔚来6月份的业绩。该公司本月早些时候重申了评级第二季度总交付量为21,000至22,000辆汽车的指引。尽管计算机芯片短缺导致生产中断，截至5月底，该公司仍交付了13,183辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Will NIO outperform its own guidance? I think it's possible but unlikely, given the continued chip-shortage issues. I won't be surprised, however, if its June result puts its second-quarter total at the high end of its guidance range. We'll find out in a day or two.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的表现会超过自己的指导吗？我认为这是可能的，但考虑到持续的芯片短缺问题，可能性不大。然而，如果其6月份的业绩使其第二季度的总额处于指导范围的高端，我不会感到惊讶。一两天后我们就会知道了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 23:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来公布6月份销售报告之前，华尔街的一份看涨报告提高了人们的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>(NYSE:NIO)were moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商的股票<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）周三早盘走高，此前一位华尔街分析师在一份看涨报告中上调了该行对该股的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> As of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午11点35分，蔚来美国存托股票较周二收盘价上涨约5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $58.30, while reiterating his previous buy rating on the shares.</p><p><blockquote>在周二下午发布的一份报告中。花旗银行分析师Jeff Chung将该行对蔚来的目标股价从58.30美元上调至72美元，同时重申了此前对该股的买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Chung wrote that he expects NIO to report \"robust shipment volume\" for June, which he thinks will be followed by sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. He now sees NIO delivering 93,000 vehicles in 2021, up from his earlier estimate of 90,000, and has raised his forecasts for 2022 and 2024 while also increasing his target&nbsp;price-to-earnings multiple&nbsp;for NIO's shares.</p><p><blockquote>Chung写道，他预计蔚来6月份将报告“强劲的出货量”，他认为随后将在2021年第三和第四季度实现环比增长。他现在预计蔚来将在2021年交付93,000辆汽车，高于他之前估计的90,000辆，并上调了对2022年和2024年的预测，同时还提高了蔚来股票的目标市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> NIO typically releases its monthly delivery totals shortly after month-end, meaning we could see NIO's results for June as soon as Thursday morning. The company's guidance, which it reiterated earlier this month, calls for a delivery total of&nbsp;between 21,000 and 22,000 vehicles&nbsp;for the second quarter. Through the end of May, it had&nbsp;delivered 13,183 vehicles&nbsp;despite production disruptions caused by shortages of computer chips.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来通常会在月底后不久发布每月交付总量，这意味着我们最早可以在周四上午看到蔚来6月份的业绩。该公司本月早些时候重申了评级第二季度总交付量为21,000至22,000辆汽车的指引。尽管计算机芯片短缺导致生产中断，截至5月底，该公司仍交付了13,183辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Will NIO outperform its own guidance? I think it's possible but unlikely, given the continued chip-shortage issues. I won't be surprised, however, if its June result puts its second-quarter total at the high end of its guidance range. We'll find out in a day or two.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的表现会超过自己的指导吗？我认为这是可能的，但考虑到持续的芯片短缺问题，可能性不大。然而，如果其6月份的业绩使其第二季度的总额处于指导范围的高端，我不会感到惊讶。一两天后我们就会知道了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121473384","content_text":"A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.\nShares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO(NYSE:NIO)were moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.\nAs of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.\nIn a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $58.30, while reiterating his previous buy rating on the shares.\nChung wrote that he expects NIO to report \"robust shipment volume\" for June, which he thinks will be followed by sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. He now sees NIO delivering 93,000 vehicles in 2021, up from his earlier estimate of 90,000, and has raised his forecasts for 2022 and 2024 while also increasing his target price-to-earnings multiple for NIO's shares.\nNIO typically releases its monthly delivery totals shortly after month-end, meaning we could see NIO's results for June as soon as Thursday morning. The company's guidance, which it reiterated earlier this month, calls for a delivery total of between 21,000 and 22,000 vehicles for the second quarter. Through the end of May, it had delivered 13,183 vehicles despite production disruptions caused by shortages of computer chips.\nWill NIO outperform its own guidance? I think it's possible but unlikely, given the continued chip-shortage issues. I won't be surprised, however, if its June result puts its second-quarter total at the high end of its guidance range. We'll find out in a day or two.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153179800,"gmtCreate":1625015358800,"gmtModify":1631892134098,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes go NIO!","listText":"Yes go NIO!","text":"Yes go NIO!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153179800","repostId":"1124372919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159150830,"gmtCreate":1624950492020,"gmtModify":1631892134111,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"NIO!","listText":"NIO!","text":"NIO!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159150830","repostId":"2147832167","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127825677,"gmtCreate":1624843861499,"gmtModify":1631892134124,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"GO NIO!","listText":"GO NIO!","text":"GO NIO!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127825677","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122570233,"gmtCreate":1624628944422,"gmtModify":1631892134168,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Come on!!","listText":"Come on!!","text":"Come on!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122570233","repostId":"1198714523","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167053037,"gmtCreate":1624240310929,"gmtModify":1631892134168,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574919981905986","idStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls!","listText":"Like and comment pls!","text":"Like and comment pls!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167053037","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":167053037,"gmtCreate":1624240310929,"gmtModify":1631892134168,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574919981905986","authorIdStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls!","listText":"Like and comment pls!","text":"Like and comment pls!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167053037","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162686187,"gmtCreate":1624061434949,"gmtModify":1634023464772,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574919981905986","authorIdStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162686187","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176793580,"gmtCreate":1626914773240,"gmtModify":1631890878581,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574919981905986","authorIdStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176793580","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151675916,"gmtCreate":1625091979135,"gmtModify":1631892134087,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574919981905986","authorIdStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice! To the moon!!","listText":"Nice! To the moon!!","text":"Nice! To the moon!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151675916","repostId":"1121473384","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121473384","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625067394,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121473384?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 23:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121473384","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIOwere moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.As of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.In a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $5","content":"<p>A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来公布6月份销售报告之前，华尔街的一份看涨报告提高了人们的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>(NYSE:NIO)were moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商的股票<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）周三早盘走高，此前一位华尔街分析师在一份看涨报告中上调了该行对该股的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> As of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午11点35分，蔚来美国存托股票较周二收盘价上涨约5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $58.30, while reiterating his previous buy rating on the shares.</p><p><blockquote>在周二下午发布的一份报告中。花旗银行分析师Jeff Chung将该行对蔚来的目标股价从58.30美元上调至72美元，同时重申了此前对该股的买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Chung wrote that he expects NIO to report \"robust shipment volume\" for June, which he thinks will be followed by sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. He now sees NIO delivering 93,000 vehicles in 2021, up from his earlier estimate of 90,000, and has raised his forecasts for 2022 and 2024 while also increasing his target&nbsp;price-to-earnings multiple&nbsp;for NIO's shares.</p><p><blockquote>Chung写道，他预计蔚来6月份将报告“强劲的出货量”，他认为随后将在2021年第三和第四季度实现环比增长。他现在预计蔚来将在2021年交付93,000辆汽车，高于他之前估计的90,000辆，并上调了对2022年和2024年的预测，同时还提高了蔚来股票的目标市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> NIO typically releases its monthly delivery totals shortly after month-end, meaning we could see NIO's results for June as soon as Thursday morning. The company's guidance, which it reiterated earlier this month, calls for a delivery total of&nbsp;between 21,000 and 22,000 vehicles&nbsp;for the second quarter. Through the end of May, it had&nbsp;delivered 13,183 vehicles&nbsp;despite production disruptions caused by shortages of computer chips.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来通常会在月底后不久发布每月交付总量，这意味着我们最早可以在周四上午看到蔚来6月份的业绩。该公司本月早些时候重申了评级第二季度总交付量为21,000至22,000辆汽车的指引。尽管计算机芯片短缺导致生产中断，截至5月底，该公司仍交付了13,183辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Will NIO outperform its own guidance? I think it's possible but unlikely, given the continued chip-shortage issues. I won't be surprised, however, if its June result puts its second-quarter total at the high end of its guidance range. We'll find out in a day or two.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的表现会超过自己的指导吗？我认为这是可能的，但考虑到持续的芯片短缺问题，可能性不大。然而，如果其6月份的业绩使其第二季度的总额处于指导范围的高端，我不会感到惊讶。一两天后我们就会知道了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 23:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来公布6月份销售报告之前，华尔街的一份看涨报告提高了人们的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>(NYSE:NIO)were moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商的股票<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）周三早盘走高，此前一位华尔街分析师在一份看涨报告中上调了该行对该股的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> As of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午11点35分，蔚来美国存托股票较周二收盘价上涨约5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $58.30, while reiterating his previous buy rating on the shares.</p><p><blockquote>在周二下午发布的一份报告中。花旗银行分析师Jeff Chung将该行对蔚来的目标股价从58.30美元上调至72美元，同时重申了此前对该股的买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Chung wrote that he expects NIO to report \"robust shipment volume\" for June, which he thinks will be followed by sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. He now sees NIO delivering 93,000 vehicles in 2021, up from his earlier estimate of 90,000, and has raised his forecasts for 2022 and 2024 while also increasing his target&nbsp;price-to-earnings multiple&nbsp;for NIO's shares.</p><p><blockquote>Chung写道，他预计蔚来6月份将报告“强劲的出货量”，他认为随后将在2021年第三和第四季度实现环比增长。他现在预计蔚来将在2021年交付93,000辆汽车，高于他之前估计的90,000辆，并上调了对2022年和2024年的预测，同时还提高了蔚来股票的目标市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> NIO typically releases its monthly delivery totals shortly after month-end, meaning we could see NIO's results for June as soon as Thursday morning. The company's guidance, which it reiterated earlier this month, calls for a delivery total of&nbsp;between 21,000 and 22,000 vehicles&nbsp;for the second quarter. Through the end of May, it had&nbsp;delivered 13,183 vehicles&nbsp;despite production disruptions caused by shortages of computer chips.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来通常会在月底后不久发布每月交付总量，这意味着我们最早可以在周四上午看到蔚来6月份的业绩。该公司本月早些时候重申了评级第二季度总交付量为21,000至22,000辆汽车的指引。尽管计算机芯片短缺导致生产中断，截至5月底，该公司仍交付了13,183辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Will NIO outperform its own guidance? I think it's possible but unlikely, given the continued chip-shortage issues. I won't be surprised, however, if its June result puts its second-quarter total at the high end of its guidance range. We'll find out in a day or two.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的表现会超过自己的指导吗？我认为这是可能的，但考虑到持续的芯片短缺问题，可能性不大。然而，如果其6月份的业绩使其第二季度的总额处于指导范围的高端，我不会感到惊讶。一两天后我们就会知道了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121473384","content_text":"A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.\nShares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO(NYSE:NIO)were moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.\nAs of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.\nIn a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $58.30, while reiterating his previous buy rating on the shares.\nChung wrote that he expects NIO to report \"robust shipment volume\" for June, which he thinks will be followed by sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. He now sees NIO delivering 93,000 vehicles in 2021, up from his earlier estimate of 90,000, and has raised his forecasts for 2022 and 2024 while also increasing his target price-to-earnings multiple for NIO's shares.\nNIO typically releases its monthly delivery totals shortly after month-end, meaning we could see NIO's results for June as soon as Thursday morning. The company's guidance, which it reiterated earlier this month, calls for a delivery total of between 21,000 and 22,000 vehicles for the second quarter. Through the end of May, it had delivered 13,183 vehicles despite production disruptions caused by shortages of computer chips.\nWill NIO outperform its own guidance? I think it's possible but unlikely, given the continued chip-shortage issues. I won't be surprised, however, if its June result puts its second-quarter total at the high end of its guidance range. We'll find out in a day or two.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195513797,"gmtCreate":1621301314719,"gmtModify":1634192647733,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574919981905986","authorIdStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment plz","listText":"Like and comment plz","text":"Like and comment plz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195513797","repostId":"1187982931","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180274447,"gmtCreate":1623209577489,"gmtModify":1634035768724,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574919981905986","authorIdStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like!","listText":"Comment and like!","text":"Comment and like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180274447","repostId":"1168233244","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168233244","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623208868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168233244?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 11:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"WallStreetBets Has A New Trading Strategy To Target Stocks Beyond AMC, GameStop, Clover Health, Says Cramer<blockquote>克莱默表示，WallStreetBets制定了新的交易策略，目标是AMC、游戏驿站、Clover Health以外的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168233244","media":"benzinga","summary":"Jim Cramer said Tuesday that retail investors on Reddit are “spreading their wings”  pointing to dis","content":"<p><div> Jim Cramer said Tuesday that retail investors on Reddit are “spreading their wings”  pointing to discussions on r/WallStreetBets that make the case for fast-food chain Wendy's Co, CNBCreported. What ...</p><p><blockquote><div>据CNBC报道，吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)周二表示，Reddit上的散户投资者正在“展开翅膀”，并指出r/WallStreetBets上的讨论为快餐连锁店Wendy's Co提供了理由。什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21485317/wallstreetbets-has-a-new-trading-strategy-to-target-stocks-beyond-amc-gamestop-clover-health-says-cr\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21485317/wallstreetbets-has-a-new-trading-strategy-to-target-stocks-beyond-amc-gamestop-clover-health-says-cr\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>WallStreetBets Has A New Trading Strategy To Target Stocks Beyond AMC, GameStop, Clover Health, Says Cramer<blockquote>克莱默表示，WallStreetBets制定了新的交易策略，目标是AMC、游戏驿站、Clover Health以外的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWallStreetBets Has A New Trading Strategy To Target Stocks Beyond AMC, GameStop, Clover Health, Says Cramer<blockquote>克莱默表示，WallStreetBets制定了新的交易策略，目标是AMC、游戏驿站、Clover Health以外的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-09 11:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Jim Cramer said Tuesday that retail investors on Reddit are “spreading their wings”  pointing to discussions on r/WallStreetBets that make the case for fast-food chain Wendy's Co, CNBCreported. What ...</p><p><blockquote><div>据CNBC报道，吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)周二表示，Reddit上的散户投资者正在“展开翅膀”，并指出r/WallStreetBets上的讨论为快餐连锁店Wendy's Co提供了理由。什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21485317/wallstreetbets-has-a-new-trading-strategy-to-target-stocks-beyond-amc-gamestop-clover-health-says-cr\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21485317/wallstreetbets-has-a-new-trading-strategy-to-target-stocks-beyond-amc-gamestop-clover-health-says-cr\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21485317/wallstreetbets-has-a-new-trading-strategy-to-target-stocks-beyond-amc-gamestop-clover-health-says-cr\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WEN":"温蒂汉堡","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线","BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21485317/wallstreetbets-has-a-new-trading-strategy-to-target-stocks-beyond-amc-gamestop-clover-health-says-cr","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168233244","content_text":"Jim Cramer said Tuesday that retail investors on Reddit are “spreading their wings”  pointing to discussions on r/WallStreetBets that make the case for fast-food chain Wendy's Co, CNBCreported.\nWhat Happened:The television personality singled out a Redditpostby the user Chillznday that expounded why Wendy’s was the perfect stock for the WallStreetBets, or WSB, subreddit.\nChillznday mentioned a new summer salad, Wendy’s social media engagement involving memes, and \"chicken tendies\" as some of the factors that made the stock a perfect match for WSB.\nThe Reddit poster also touched on technical aspects of Wendy's stock and mentioned a low float of $17 million, of which 4-10% is short. As per Chillznday, the short will increase as it is a “relatively predictable stock.”\nWendy’s shares soared 25.85% in the regular session on Tuesday and rose another 4.78% in the after-hours trading to $30.25.\nWhy It Matters:Cramer noted the appreciation in Wendy’s stock was fueled by Chillznday and some other favorable anonymous posts.\n“I want you to forget the analysts right now. The person in charge of Wendy’s is Reddit user Chillznda,” said Cramer, as per CNBC.\nThe analyst also pointed out that the WSB crowd was “spreading their wings, even into an institutional favorite like Wendy’s with a very low short position.”\nThe Wendy’s move, as per Cramer, is a departure from short squeezes that has been the focus of WSB which lead to stocks such as GameStop Corporation,BlackBerry Ltd, and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.\nCramer said that the methodology of valuing stocks by the new class of investors matters.\n“If enough people with enough money start valuing stocks a different way, their new metrics matter, too, even if you think they’re absurd,” said the former hedge fund manager.\nWSB investors are broadening their horizons, another stock that has emerged as anew darling of the Reddit investorsthis week isClover Health Investments Corp.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WEN":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9,"BB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116966910,"gmtCreate":1622770275030,"gmtModify":1634098197504,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574919981905986","authorIdStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Can buy still?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Can buy still?","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Can buy still?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116966910","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148809288,"gmtCreate":1625964660344,"gmtModify":1631892134042,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574919981905986","authorIdStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Amazing","listText":"Amazing","text":"Amazing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148809288","repostId":"1159307278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159307278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625873648,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159307278?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 07:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159307278","media":"Barrons","summary":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling s","content":"<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德·布兰森计划于周日飞往太空，这对于刚刚起步的太空旅游业来说可能是一个里程碑式的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着70岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次客运太空之旅，击败杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运航班一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些最近的历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河Unity 22太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午9点左右从新墨西哥州的维珍航天港发射。此次发布会可以在公司网站和下面的《巴伦周刊》上进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会飞到多高的太空？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河的VSS Unity航天器将达到约3马赫的速度，即音速的三倍，并上升到约30万英尺，即57英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的10倍，但仍然被认为是太空的边缘。亚轨道飞行不会通过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来定义外太空边界的。那条线大约在62英里处。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划让乘客在航班上经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游向前迈出的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。加入公司创始人的将是两名飞行员；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教练；Colin Bennett，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特(Ken Herbert)认为，银河有可能通过布兰森带来付费客户来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将在本月晚些时候乘坐他的航班将第一位付费乘客送往太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外逃对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使Galactic离完全商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面投入使用，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的费用约为5400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计Galactic 2021年的销售额约为300万美元，2022年将增长至5100万美元，到2025年将增长至5.55亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在2024年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>该航班和相关新闻报道也代表了公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说显然是积极的，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经反映在维珍银河的股票中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约120%，过去12个月上涨超过200%，使这家初创公司的市值约为110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功飞行后周一没有上涨，投资者不应该感到失望。公司的最终价值将在未来决定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢该股便宜的时候。早在9月份，所有研究银河股票的分析师都给予买入评级。标准普尔500指数股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9月份股价为25美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股50美元以上，只有30%的分析师将该股评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 07:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德·布兰森计划于周日飞往太空，这对于刚刚起步的太空旅游业来说可能是一个里程碑式的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着70岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次客运太空之旅，击败杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运航班一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些最近的历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河Unity 22太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午9点左右从新墨西哥州的维珍航天港发射。此次发布会可以在公司网站和下面的《巴伦周刊》上进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会飞到多高的太空？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河的VSS Unity航天器将达到约3马赫的速度，即音速的三倍，并上升到约30万英尺，即57英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的10倍，但仍然被认为是太空的边缘。亚轨道飞行不会通过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来定义外太空边界的。那条线大约在62英里处。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划让乘客在航班上经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游向前迈出的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。加入公司创始人的将是两名飞行员；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教练；Colin Bennett，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特(Ken Herbert)认为，银河有可能通过布兰森带来付费客户来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将在本月晚些时候乘坐他的航班将第一位付费乘客送往太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外逃对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使Galactic离完全商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面投入使用，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的费用约为5400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计Galactic 2021年的销售额约为300万美元，2022年将增长至5100万美元，到2025年将增长至5.55亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在2024年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>该航班和相关新闻报道也代表了公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说显然是积极的，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经反映在维珍银河的股票中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约120%，过去12个月上涨超过200%，使这家初创公司的市值约为110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功飞行后周一没有上涨，投资者不应该感到失望。公司的最终价值将在未来决定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢该股便宜的时候。早在9月份，所有研究银河股票的分析师都给予买入评级。标准普尔500指数股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9月份股价为25美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股50美元以上，只有30%的分析师将该股评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159307278","content_text":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling space tourism industry.\nSo long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.\nHere’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.\nWhen Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?\nThe Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the company’s website and on Barron’s below.\nHow High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?\nGalactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.\nBlue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.\nHow Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?\nNothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.\nStill, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes it’s possible that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.\nA move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for $28 million.\nA ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run about $250,000.\nWhat Does the Flight Mean for Investors?\nThe continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.\nOnce fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.\nAnalysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.\nThe flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.\nHow Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?\nA successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.\n\nThe stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.\nInvestors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.\nAnalysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for S&P 500 stocks is about 55%.\nShares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154048251,"gmtCreate":1625463423173,"gmtModify":1631892134063,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574919981905986","authorIdStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"EV is the way","listText":"EV is the way","text":"EV is the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154048251","repostId":"1193340451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110773238,"gmtCreate":1622506623624,"gmtModify":1634101055802,"author":{"id":"3574919981905986","authorId":"3574919981905986","name":"Wahahoho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd4e59cf840fbdacfe232a14c46c038","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574919981905986","authorIdStr":"3574919981905986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s go!","listText":"Let’s go!","text":"Let’s go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110773238","repostId":"1163643126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}