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2022-01-04

Like please

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2022-01-02

[Happy]

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2021-12-31

Like and share pls

DocuSign: COVID Or Not, E-Signature Is Here To Stay<blockquote>DocuSign：无论有没有新冠疫情，电子签名都将继续存在</blockquote>

2021-10-09

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2021-09-13

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2021-07-31

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2021-06-20

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2021-06-07

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2021-06-07

Good news

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2021-06-05

Hope itcan really reach $100

Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>

2021-06-01

Nice

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2021-06-01

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2021-05-31

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2021-05-30

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2021-05-30

Buy more amc..hodl!!!

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2021-05-30

Nice

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2021-05-29

Should we buy thr dip?

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2021-05-23

Great

Tesla’s New Plaid Model Is Ready. That Should Help the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的新款格子图案已经准备就绪。这应该有助于股票。</blockquote>

2021-05-22

$Precipio, Inc.(PRPO)$Why it keeps dropping

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please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695008416","repostId":"2200886475","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692496021,"gmtCreate":1641131348181,"gmtModify":1641131348292,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692496021","repostId":"2200444738","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692203195,"gmtCreate":1640962909224,"gmtModify":1640962947647,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and share pls","listText":"Like and share pls","text":"Like and share pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692203195","repostId":"1125606718","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125606718","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640954649,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125606718?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-31 20:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"DocuSign: COVID Or Not, E-Signature Is Here To Stay<blockquote>DocuSign：无论有没有新冠疫情，电子签名都将继续存在</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125606718","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryManagement missed billings guidance coming into Q3’22, resulting in market reaction.E-signatu","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Management missed billings guidance coming into Q3’22, resulting in market reaction.</li><li>E-signatures are still going to be used even when businesses are slowly returning to offices due to its convenience, unlike Zoom’s video conferencing.</li><li>The Agreement Cloud is gaining back traction after an abrupt stop caused by COVID.</li><li>At current prices, only growth of e-signature revenues in the next 5 years is priced in.</li><li>CEO Dan Springer purchased $5M worth of stock after earnings.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e4aeb6a856c1f9be8d691856077329\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>管理层错过了 22 年第三季度的比林斯指引，导致了市场反应。</li><li>与 Zoom 的视频会议不同，即使企业因其便利性而慢慢返回办公室，电子签名仍将被使用。</li><li>在COVID导致的突然停止后，协议云正在重新获得牵引力。</li><li>按照目前的价格，只有未来5年电子签名收入的增长被定价。</li><li>首席执行官丹·斯普林格 (Dan Springer) 在财报公布后购买了价值 500 万美元的股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>This article is contributed by Douglas from our Superstocks Seekers team.</p><p><blockquote>本文由我们的超级股票探索者团队的道格拉斯贡献。</blockquote></p><p><i>[To receive real-time notifications of our latest updates/articles, click the &#34;Follow&#34; button on the left of your screen.]</i></p><p><blockquote><i>[要接收我们最新更新/文章的实时通知，请单击屏幕左侧的“关注”按钮。]</i></blockquote></p><p>We previously gave an overview of DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU) from Q2&#39;22 results. Following its Q3&#39;22 earnings release, there was a market reaction that resulted in a 40% drop in stock price. Let&#39;s look into the results to assess whether the drop is warranted.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前从 2022 年第二季度的业绩中概述了 DocuSign（纳斯达克股票代码：DOCU）。2022 年第三季度财报发布后，市场反应导致股价下跌 40%。让我们看看结果，以评估下降是否合理。</blockquote></p><p><b>Q3&#39;22 Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>22 年第三季度财务</b></blockquote></p><p>We will be looking at only subscription revenue as it is the reflection of the strength of DocuSign&#39;s product offerings, comprising ~97% of their revenue. The management is looking to gradually move all its professional integration services to partners so that they can fully focus on improving &amp; selling their products.</p><p><blockquote>我们将只关注订阅收入，因为它反映了 DocuSign 产品供应的实力，约占其收入的 97%。管理层正在寻求逐步将其所有专业集成服务转移给合作伙伴，以便他们可以完全专注于改进和销售他们的产品。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d44789450f393554fcd235fd3cfd78d8\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: DOCU&#39;s SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DOCU 向 SEC 提交的文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>DocuSign achieved a record $529 million in subscription revenue in Q3. However, the YoY growth rates have been normalizing back to pre-Covid levels.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign 第三季度的订阅收入达到创纪录的 5.29 亿美元。然而，同比增长率已恢复正常至新冠疫情前的水平。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50155de13c99d996738c7412a818343d\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: DOCU&#39;s SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DOCU 向 SEC 提交的文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Billings are the amount invoiced to customers in the quarter. It includes both current and future quarter revenue since customers usually pre-pay for annual contracts. Hence, this metric will give a partial glimpse into future quarters&#39; performance. Due to the variety of contractual terms and customer usage patterns, there&#39;s bound to be quarterly fluctuations, thus management always advises to view it from a trailing twelve months basis.</p><p><blockquote>账单是本季度向客户开具的发票金额。它包括当前和未来的季度收入，因为客户通常预付年度合同。因此，该指标将部分了解未来季度的表现。由于合同条款和客户使用模式的多样性，肯定会有季度波动，因此管理层总是建议从过去12个月的基础上查看。</blockquote></p><p>However, by just looking at Q3&#39;22 billing YoY growth, it seems to be one of the negative factors affecting investors&#39; confidence. Q3&#39;21 is the period where companies are starting to resume normal operations digitally, as lockdowns begin to loosen after the initial shock from COVID. (This phenomenon was also reflected in Airbnb&#39;s (NASDAQ:ABNB) Q3&#39;20 booking numbers as shown in our previous article.) Thus, it created huge demands for e-signatures, even if companies might not know the full extent of use cases yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仅从 22 年第三季度的同比增长来看，这似乎是影响投资者信心的负面因素之一。Q3’21是公司开始以数字化方式恢复正常运营的时期，因为在COVID的最初冲击之后，封锁开始放松。（这种现象也反映在Airbnb（纳斯达克股票代码：ABNB）2020年第三季度的预订数字中，如我们上一篇文章所示。）因此，它创造了对电子签名的巨大需求，即使公司可能还不知道用例的全部范围。</blockquote></p><p>For Q3&#39;22 to show such a large deceleration in growth, there can be two reasons: 1) Companies bought excessive capacity in their initial buy just to prepare for any downturns in events, and have not consumed all. 2) Companies bought small capacity, and have already renewed with larger contracts in the subsequent quarters. Either reason reflected a slowdown in consumption patterns.</p><p><blockquote>2022年第三季度增长出现如此大的放缓，可能有两个原因：1）公司在最初的购买中购买了过多的产能，只是为了应对任何事件的低迷做准备，并且没有全部消耗。2) 公司购买了小产能，并且已经在随后的几个季度续签了更大的合同。这两个原因都反映了消费模式的放缓。</blockquote></p><p>Additionally, there was a slight sales execution issue causing this as mentioned by CEO Daniel Springer in the earnings call. From the onset of COVID, they were very focused on rapidly capturing the demand up till now. This shifted their focus away from educating customers on the extensive use cases, which they used to do as part of their &#34;land &amp; expand&#34; strategy.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正如首席执行官 Daniel Springer 在盈利看涨期权中提到的那样，造成这种情况的原因是销售执行出现了轻微问题。从COVID开始，他们一直非常专注于快速捕捉需求，直到现在。这将他们的重点从教育客户广泛的用例转移开来，他们过去常常将这些用例作为“土地和扩张”战略的一部分。</blockquote></p><p>We stopped doing that as people just need more and more volume for their existing use cases, right? And so I think that&#39;s the gap in our execution. And as Cynthia described, a huge portion of our field has joined since pandemic began because we&#39;ve been growing at such a rate. And we haven&#39;t done the job we need to do at enabling them at the traditional DocuSign sort of land and expand processes.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45d1bcb79a78644507925af0132f1237\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"519\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Winter 2021 Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote>我们停止了这样做，因为人们只是需要越来越多的卷来满足他们现有的用例，对吗？所以我认为这就是我们执行中的差距。正如辛西娅所描述的，自从疫情开始以来，我们领域的很大一部分人已经加入，因为我们一直在以这样的速度增长。我们还没有在传统的DocuSign类型的土地和扩展流程中完成我们需要做的工作。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：2021 年冬季投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Despite the slowdown in revenue &amp; billings growth, Net Dollar Retention (&#34;NDR&#34;) rates are still looking healthy. It should be noted that NDR rates were still being driven by the expansion of e-signature use cases, as the application of Agreement Cloud is still in the early stages (more on it below).</p><p><blockquote>尽管收入和账单增长放缓，但美元净保留率（“NDR”）看起来仍然健康。应该注意的是，NDR费率仍然是由电子签名用例的扩展推动的，因为协议云的应用仍处于早期阶段（下文将详细介绍）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Management Guidance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>管理指导</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a37d6638669dc240d320586aabd975a\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"266\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Calls</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：评级盈利</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Management had initially expected their COVID demand to die down from the start of Q1, thus guiding full-year billings growth of only 31% during Q4&#39;21. Due to the unexpected growth for the first 2 quarters, the management optimistically adjusted their guidance. The slowdown in growth then happened in Q3, missing the guidance, which might have surprised them. As a result, they lowered their Q4 guidance. These moves seldom go well with investors, sending the stock down 40%.</p><p><blockquote>管理层最初预计他们的新冠需求将从第一季度开始下降，从而导致 2021 年第四季度全年账单增长仅为 31%。由于前两个季度的意外增长，管理层乐观地调整了他们的指引。第三季度增长放缓，未能达到指引，这可能会让他们感到惊讶。因此，他们下调了第四季度指引。这些举措很少受到投资者的欢迎，导致该股下跌 40%。</blockquote></p><p><b>COVID Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>COVID股票？</b></blockquote></p><p>A mention of &#34;COVID Stocks&#34; brings to mind Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) and DocuSign. Both businesses enable remote working through video conferencing and e-signature respectively. A look at Zoom&#39;s revenue growth clearly showed how COVID impacted their business.</p><p><blockquote>提到“新冠股票”，人们就会想到 Zoom（纳斯达克股票代码：ZM）和 DocuSign。两家公司分别通过视频会议和电子签名实现远程工作。从 Zoom 的收入增长可以清楚地看出 COVID 如何影响他们的业务。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a702a96d104f06d54230b8cc7ef696\" tg-width=\"752\" tg-height=\"452\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Zoom&#39;s SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zoom 向 SEC 提交的文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Despite showing similar growth profiles, it would be unfair to project such a massive growth deceleration for DocuSign. As users start returning to offices, it&#39;s more likely for them to switch back to in-person meetings than returning to manual mailing processes to close agreements. In-person meetings still have intangible benefits that video conferencing can&#39;t provide. On the other hand, e-signatures are simply cheaper, faster, and more accessible, providing a clear Return On Investment (&#34;ROI&#34;) for users that have switched.</p><p><blockquote>尽管显示出相似的增长概况，但预测 DocuSign 的增长大幅放缓是不公平的。随着用户开始返回办公室，他们更有可能转向面对面的会议，而不是返回手动邮件流程来完成协议。面对面的会议仍然有视频会议无法提供的无形好处。另一方面，电子签名更便宜、更快、更容易访问，为已经转换的用户提供了明确的投资回报（“ROI”）。</blockquote></p><p>Agreement Cloud Progress</p><p><blockquote>协议云进展</blockquote></p><p>E-signature has become part of the larger Agreement Cloud offering from DocuSign. The remaining components such as Contract Lifecycle Management (&#34;CLM&#34;) require a more extensive rollout as enterprise software needs to be integrated, lengthening the whole sales cycle to about 3-4 quarters. Thus, the initial sales traction gained from pre-COVID was put to an abrupt stop when customers chose to focus on the more mission-critical e-signature. The immediate ROI and ease of implementation digitally also played a part.</p><p><blockquote>电子签名已经成为DocuSign更大的协议云产品的一部分。合同生命周期管理（“CLM”）等其余组件需要更广泛的推广，因为需要集成企业软件，将整个销售周期延长至约3-4个季度。因此，当客户选择专注于更关键的电子签名时，从COVID之前获得的最初销售牵引力突然停止。即时的投资回报率和数字化实施的便利性也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p>As per CEO Springer during Q1&#39;22 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>根据首席执行官 Springer 在 2022 年第一季度盈利看涨期权上的说法：</blockquote></p><p>&#34;Now we see those starting to come back. And so we see the pipeline starting to build, as we did actually starting in Q4 start more aggressively there. So those are demonstrably coming back, and I think those will be larger deal sizes that we will see.Interest in Agreement Cloud is starting to pick up again as businesses adapt to the new way of working. And basing it on the estimated sales cycle, the growth should be back on track. Agreement cloud has the potential to put DocuSign above the other e-signature providers, albeit only showing insignificant revenue for now. Readers do have to note that this is still considered a greenfield opportunity for the company, and it will be up to the management to effectively market its value proposition.</p><p><blockquote>“现在我们看到这些开始回归。因此，我们看到管道开始建设，就像我们实际上从第四季度开始更积极地开始一样。因此，这些显然正在回归，我认为这些将是更大的交易规模我们将看到随着企业适应新的工作方式，人们对协议云的兴趣开始再次回升。根据估计的销售周期，增长应该会回到正轨。Agreement cloud有潜力将DocuSign置于其他电子签名提供商之上，尽管目前仅显示出微不足道的收入。读者必须指出，这仍然被认为是该公司的一个绿地机会，有效地营销其价值主张将取决于管理层。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customers&#39; Reviews</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户评论</b></blockquote></p><p>The company interviewed users from Unilever (LON:ULVR)(NYSE:UL) and Snowflake (NASDAQ:SNOW) during their 2021 Analyst Day.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在 2021 年分析师日期间采访了联合利华 (LON:ULVR)(NYSE:UL) 和雪花 (NASDAQ:SNOW) 的用户。</blockquote></p><p>One of the highlights was that Unilever had already been using SpringCM and Seal software when they were still independent companies. Both were then acquired by DocuSign as part of Agreement Cloud products. According to Lim Wei Ling, Unilever&#39;s Global Supply Chain General Counsel:</p><p><blockquote>其中一个亮点是，联合利华在还是独立公司时就已经在使用SpringCM和Seal软件了。两者随后都被DocuSign收购，作为协议云产品的一部分。联合利华全球供应链总法律顾问林伟玲表示：</blockquote></p><p>And so primary driver was to find ways to give time back to our colleagues, give time back to our business partners, so that they can do even more value-add work and also to create capabilities that will generate data-driven insights for them that they can take action on. And so it was with this in mind that we wanted to take advantage of the contract automation, the contract building capabilities and the contract analytics capabilities in the Agreement Cloud.This validates the whole Agreement Cloud concept, showing that it&#39;s not just a bold vision from the management team.</p><p><blockquote>因此，首要驱动力是找到方法将时间还给我们的同事，将时间还给我们的业务合作伙伴，以便他们可以做更多增值工作，并创建能力，为他们生成数据驱动的见解，以便他们可以采取行动。因此，考虑到这一点，我们希望利用协议云中的合同自动化、合同构建功能和合同分析功能。这验证了整个协议云概念，表明这不仅仅是管理团队的一个大胆愿景。</blockquote></p><p>In addition, Snowflake chose to use DocuSign over other providers as they offer a future roadmap. This fits into the company&#39;s &#34;land &amp; expand&#34; strategy - from introducing e-signatures to gradually utilizing the different components of the whole Agreement cloud - allowing users to achieve more ROI as they explore more of the use cases.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Snowflake选择使用DocuSign而不是其他提供商，因为他们提供了未来的路线图。这符合该公司的“土地和扩展”战略——从引入电子签名到逐步利用整个协议云的不同组件——允许用户在探索更多用例时实现更多的投资回报率。</blockquote></p><p>Looking at the reviews from G2.com&amp;Gartner, DocuSign&#39;s e-signature is at a premium pricing above the rest. Despite that, it&#39;s still the undisputed leader in the e-signature market. The strength of its brand, its integration to many enterprise software, and potential extensions to other value-adding software certainly justify the costs.</p><p><blockquote>从G2.com&amp;Gartner的评论来看，DocuSign的电子签名定价高于其他产品。尽管如此，它仍然是电子签名市场无可争议的领导者。其品牌的实力、与许多企业软件的集成以及对其他增值软件的潜在扩展当然证明了成本的合理性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279430e025777ecf2a913e148ab211dd\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"642\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Winter 2021 Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：2021 年冬季投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p>Similar to our Q2&#39;22 article, we will use a 5 year Discounted Cash Flow (&#34;DCF&#34;) valuation method to determine a fair value for DocuSign, and bring it back to its present value.</p><p><blockquote>与我们的 22 年第二季度文章类似，我们将使用 5 年贴现现金流 (“DCF”) 估值方法来确定 DocuSign 的公允价值，并将其恢复到现值。</blockquote></p><p>We have shared how we derived the variables such as Discount Rate, Dilution, and Exit Price Multiple. The variables and the assumptions made are the same, except for the drop in year 1 revenue growth rates. Using the recent quarter growth rate, we brought down the revenue growth from 50% to 40% to give a more conservative estimate.</p><p><blockquote>我们分享了如何得出贴现率、稀释度和退出价格倍数等变量。除第一年收入增长率下降外，变量及假设相同。使用最近的季度增长率，我们将收入增长从 50% 下调至 40%，以给出更保守的估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537c128d1b5c973dfbbe82d15aa29330\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author&#39;s estimates with DOCU&#39;s SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者对 DOCU 向 SEC 提交文件的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We derived an intrinsic per-share value of $219. As of 28th Dec&#39;21 closing price at $152, there&#39;s an implied upside of at least 40%.</p><p><blockquote>我们得出的每股内在价值为 219 美元。截至 21 年 12 月 28 日收盘价 152 美元，隐含上涨空间至少为 40%。</blockquote></p><p>Using the same assumptions (except year 1 growth rate) and working backward from the closing price of $152, the market is expecting a drastic growth slowdown and year 5 revenue of USD 5.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>使用相同的假设（除了第一年的增长率）并从152美元的收盘价向后计算，市场预计增长将大幅放缓，第五年的收入将达到57亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce724df4aaa47bd2a9ce56dc3c385fd\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author&#39;s estimates with DOCU&#39;s SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者对 DOCU 向 SEC 提交文件的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The management indicated during their Analyst Dayt hat the near-term goal of USD 5 billion will still be mainly from e-signatures. This means that at current prices, the market is not pricing in any growth from the Agreement Cloud in the next 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层在分析师会议上表示，50亿美元的近期目标仍将主要来自电子签名。这意味着，按照目前的价格，市场不会对未来5年内协议云的任何增长进行定价。</blockquote></p><p><b>Insider Buying</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内幕购买</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite the Q3&#39;22 results which caused the share price to drop 40%, something that caught our attention is that CEO Springer bought $5 million worth of DOCU&#39;s shares after the drop.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 22 年第三季度的业绩导致股价下跌 40%，但引起我们注意的是，首席执行官 Springer 在股价下跌后购买了价值 500 万美元的 DOCU 股票。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74319b1acc664e1ff67fff037599170\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"825\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e804a595ee217a4e80ef5637ddcb9c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"317\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SEC Form 4 7th Dec &amp; 8th Dec</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SEC Form 4 12 月 7 日和 8 日</span></p></blockquote></p><p>When asked about his buying decision during a UBS investor conference on 8th Dec, he mentioned:</p><p><blockquote>在 12 月 8 日的瑞银投资者会议上，当被问及他的购买决定时，他提到：</blockquote></p><p>I&#39;m very confident. I&#39;m making a good investment. And as I&#39;ve said openly, if the stock doesn&#39;t react over the coming days, weeks, months and doesn&#39;t get sort of more in line with where I think it should be, I&#39;ll continue to be a buyer.As an insider with full knowledge of the pipelines and daily operations, this move displayed huge confidence in DocuSign&#39;s prospects.</p><p><blockquote>我很有信心。我在做一笔不错的投资。正如我公开所说，如果该股在未来几天、几周、几个月内没有做出反应，并且没有变得更加符合我认为它应该达到的水平，我将继续成为买家。作为一个对管道和日常运营了如指掌的内部人士，此举显示了对DocuSign前景的巨大信心。</blockquote></p><p><b>Closing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关闭</b></blockquote></p><p>The pandemic had made e-signature a mission-critical software for businesses to operate in today&#39;s &#34;Anywhere Economy&#34;. DocuSign is positioning itself by being more than that, as e-signatures get commoditized. By tapping on its industry-leading brand presence, the company is leading customers into its larger value-adding Agreement Cloud.</p><p><blockquote>疫情使电子签名成为企业在当今“无处不在的经济”中运营的关键任务软件。随着电子签名的商品化，DocuSign将自己定位为不止于此。通过利用其行业领先的品牌形象，该公司正在引导客户进入其更大的增值协议云。</blockquote></p><p>Current prices seemed to only factor in the growth of e-signature. Even though the whole Agreement Cloud segment is still small, there are already customers utilizing specific products. As DocuSign gradually gets embedded into customers&#39; workflows with more products, its software will become stickier. With increasing sales traction, the Agreement Cloud has the potential to become a game-changer and key revenue contribution for DocuSign in the near future.</p><p><blockquote>目前的价格似乎只是电子签名增长的一个因素。尽管整个协议云细分市场仍然很小，但已经有客户在使用特定的产品。随着DocuSign随着更多的产品逐渐嵌入客户的工作流程，其软件将变得更具粘性。随着销售牵引力的增加，协议云有可能在不久的将来成为DocuSign的游戏规则改变者和主要收入贡献。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DocuSign: COVID Or Not, E-Signature Is Here To Stay<blockquote>DocuSign：无论有没有新冠疫情，电子签名都将继续存在</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDocuSign: COVID Or Not, E-Signature Is Here To Stay<blockquote>DocuSign：无论有没有新冠疫情，电子签名都将继续存在</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-31 20:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Management missed billings guidance coming into Q3’22, resulting in market reaction.</li><li>E-signatures are still going to be used even when businesses are slowly returning to offices due to its convenience, unlike Zoom’s video conferencing.</li><li>The Agreement Cloud is gaining back traction after an abrupt stop caused by COVID.</li><li>At current prices, only growth of e-signature revenues in the next 5 years is priced in.</li><li>CEO Dan Springer purchased $5M worth of stock after earnings.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e4aeb6a856c1f9be8d691856077329\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>管理层错过了 22 年第三季度的比林斯指引，导致了市场反应。</li><li>与 Zoom 的视频会议不同，即使企业因其便利性而慢慢返回办公室，电子签名仍将被使用。</li><li>在COVID导致的突然停止后，协议云正在重新获得牵引力。</li><li>按照目前的价格，只有未来5年电子签名收入的增长被定价。</li><li>首席执行官丹·斯普林格 (Dan Springer) 在财报公布后购买了价值 500 万美元的股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>This article is contributed by Douglas from our Superstocks Seekers team.</p><p><blockquote>本文由我们的超级股票探索者团队的道格拉斯贡献。</blockquote></p><p><i>[To receive real-time notifications of our latest updates/articles, click the &#34;Follow&#34; button on the left of your screen.]</i></p><p><blockquote><i>[要接收我们最新更新/文章的实时通知，请单击屏幕左侧的“关注”按钮。]</i></blockquote></p><p>We previously gave an overview of DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU) from Q2&#39;22 results. Following its Q3&#39;22 earnings release, there was a market reaction that resulted in a 40% drop in stock price. Let&#39;s look into the results to assess whether the drop is warranted.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前从 2022 年第二季度的业绩中概述了 DocuSign（纳斯达克股票代码：DOCU）。2022 年第三季度财报发布后，市场反应导致股价下跌 40%。让我们看看结果，以评估下降是否合理。</blockquote></p><p><b>Q3&#39;22 Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>22 年第三季度财务</b></blockquote></p><p>We will be looking at only subscription revenue as it is the reflection of the strength of DocuSign&#39;s product offerings, comprising ~97% of their revenue. The management is looking to gradually move all its professional integration services to partners so that they can fully focus on improving &amp; selling their products.</p><p><blockquote>我们将只关注订阅收入，因为它反映了 DocuSign 产品供应的实力，约占其收入的 97%。管理层正在寻求逐步将其所有专业集成服务转移给合作伙伴，以便他们可以完全专注于改进和销售他们的产品。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d44789450f393554fcd235fd3cfd78d8\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: DOCU&#39;s SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DOCU 向 SEC 提交的文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>DocuSign achieved a record $529 million in subscription revenue in Q3. However, the YoY growth rates have been normalizing back to pre-Covid levels.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign 第三季度的订阅收入达到创纪录的 5.29 亿美元。然而，同比增长率已恢复正常至新冠疫情前的水平。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50155de13c99d996738c7412a818343d\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: DOCU&#39;s SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DOCU 向 SEC 提交的文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Billings are the amount invoiced to customers in the quarter. It includes both current and future quarter revenue since customers usually pre-pay for annual contracts. Hence, this metric will give a partial glimpse into future quarters&#39; performance. Due to the variety of contractual terms and customer usage patterns, there&#39;s bound to be quarterly fluctuations, thus management always advises to view it from a trailing twelve months basis.</p><p><blockquote>账单是本季度向客户开具的发票金额。它包括当前和未来的季度收入，因为客户通常预付年度合同。因此，该指标将部分了解未来季度的表现。由于合同条款和客户使用模式的多样性，肯定会有季度波动，因此管理层总是建议从过去12个月的基础上查看。</blockquote></p><p>However, by just looking at Q3&#39;22 billing YoY growth, it seems to be one of the negative factors affecting investors&#39; confidence. Q3&#39;21 is the period where companies are starting to resume normal operations digitally, as lockdowns begin to loosen after the initial shock from COVID. (This phenomenon was also reflected in Airbnb&#39;s (NASDAQ:ABNB) Q3&#39;20 booking numbers as shown in our previous article.) Thus, it created huge demands for e-signatures, even if companies might not know the full extent of use cases yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仅从 22 年第三季度的同比增长来看，这似乎是影响投资者信心的负面因素之一。Q3’21是公司开始以数字化方式恢复正常运营的时期，因为在COVID的最初冲击之后，封锁开始放松。（这种现象也反映在Airbnb（纳斯达克股票代码：ABNB）2020年第三季度的预订数字中，如我们上一篇文章所示。）因此，它创造了对电子签名的巨大需求，即使公司可能还不知道用例的全部范围。</blockquote></p><p>For Q3&#39;22 to show such a large deceleration in growth, there can be two reasons: 1) Companies bought excessive capacity in their initial buy just to prepare for any downturns in events, and have not consumed all. 2) Companies bought small capacity, and have already renewed with larger contracts in the subsequent quarters. Either reason reflected a slowdown in consumption patterns.</p><p><blockquote>2022年第三季度增长出现如此大的放缓，可能有两个原因：1）公司在最初的购买中购买了过多的产能，只是为了应对任何事件的低迷做准备，并且没有全部消耗。2) 公司购买了小产能，并且已经在随后的几个季度续签了更大的合同。这两个原因都反映了消费模式的放缓。</blockquote></p><p>Additionally, there was a slight sales execution issue causing this as mentioned by CEO Daniel Springer in the earnings call. From the onset of COVID, they were very focused on rapidly capturing the demand up till now. This shifted their focus away from educating customers on the extensive use cases, which they used to do as part of their &#34;land &amp; expand&#34; strategy.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正如首席执行官 Daniel Springer 在盈利看涨期权中提到的那样，造成这种情况的原因是销售执行出现了轻微问题。从COVID开始，他们一直非常专注于快速捕捉需求，直到现在。这将他们的重点从教育客户广泛的用例转移开来，他们过去常常将这些用例作为“土地和扩张”战略的一部分。</blockquote></p><p>We stopped doing that as people just need more and more volume for their existing use cases, right? And so I think that&#39;s the gap in our execution. And as Cynthia described, a huge portion of our field has joined since pandemic began because we&#39;ve been growing at such a rate. And we haven&#39;t done the job we need to do at enabling them at the traditional DocuSign sort of land and expand processes.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45d1bcb79a78644507925af0132f1237\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"519\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Winter 2021 Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote>我们停止了这样做，因为人们只是需要越来越多的卷来满足他们现有的用例，对吗？所以我认为这就是我们执行中的差距。正如辛西娅所描述的，自从疫情开始以来，我们领域的很大一部分人已经加入，因为我们一直在以这样的速度增长。我们还没有在传统的DocuSign类型的土地和扩展流程中完成我们需要做的工作。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：2021 年冬季投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Despite the slowdown in revenue &amp; billings growth, Net Dollar Retention (&#34;NDR&#34;) rates are still looking healthy. It should be noted that NDR rates were still being driven by the expansion of e-signature use cases, as the application of Agreement Cloud is still in the early stages (more on it below).</p><p><blockquote>尽管收入和账单增长放缓，但美元净保留率（“NDR”）看起来仍然健康。应该注意的是，NDR费率仍然是由电子签名用例的扩展推动的，因为协议云的应用仍处于早期阶段（下文将详细介绍）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Management Guidance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>管理指导</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a37d6638669dc240d320586aabd975a\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"266\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Calls</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：评级盈利</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Management had initially expected their COVID demand to die down from the start of Q1, thus guiding full-year billings growth of only 31% during Q4&#39;21. Due to the unexpected growth for the first 2 quarters, the management optimistically adjusted their guidance. The slowdown in growth then happened in Q3, missing the guidance, which might have surprised them. As a result, they lowered their Q4 guidance. These moves seldom go well with investors, sending the stock down 40%.</p><p><blockquote>管理层最初预计他们的新冠需求将从第一季度开始下降，从而导致 2021 年第四季度全年账单增长仅为 31%。由于前两个季度的意外增长，管理层乐观地调整了他们的指引。第三季度增长放缓，未能达到指引，这可能会让他们感到惊讶。因此，他们下调了第四季度指引。这些举措很少受到投资者的欢迎，导致该股下跌 40%。</blockquote></p><p><b>COVID Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>COVID股票？</b></blockquote></p><p>A mention of &#34;COVID Stocks&#34; brings to mind Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) and DocuSign. Both businesses enable remote working through video conferencing and e-signature respectively. A look at Zoom&#39;s revenue growth clearly showed how COVID impacted their business.</p><p><blockquote>提到“新冠股票”，人们就会想到 Zoom（纳斯达克股票代码：ZM）和 DocuSign。两家公司分别通过视频会议和电子签名实现远程工作。从 Zoom 的收入增长可以清楚地看出 COVID 如何影响他们的业务。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a702a96d104f06d54230b8cc7ef696\" tg-width=\"752\" tg-height=\"452\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Zoom&#39;s SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zoom 向 SEC 提交的文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Despite showing similar growth profiles, it would be unfair to project such a massive growth deceleration for DocuSign. As users start returning to offices, it&#39;s more likely for them to switch back to in-person meetings than returning to manual mailing processes to close agreements. In-person meetings still have intangible benefits that video conferencing can&#39;t provide. On the other hand, e-signatures are simply cheaper, faster, and more accessible, providing a clear Return On Investment (&#34;ROI&#34;) for users that have switched.</p><p><blockquote>尽管显示出相似的增长概况，但预测 DocuSign 的增长大幅放缓是不公平的。随着用户开始返回办公室，他们更有可能转向面对面的会议，而不是返回手动邮件流程来完成协议。面对面的会议仍然有视频会议无法提供的无形好处。另一方面，电子签名更便宜、更快、更容易访问，为已经转换的用户提供了明确的投资回报（“ROI”）。</blockquote></p><p>Agreement Cloud Progress</p><p><blockquote>协议云进展</blockquote></p><p>E-signature has become part of the larger Agreement Cloud offering from DocuSign. The remaining components such as Contract Lifecycle Management (&#34;CLM&#34;) require a more extensive rollout as enterprise software needs to be integrated, lengthening the whole sales cycle to about 3-4 quarters. Thus, the initial sales traction gained from pre-COVID was put to an abrupt stop when customers chose to focus on the more mission-critical e-signature. The immediate ROI and ease of implementation digitally also played a part.</p><p><blockquote>电子签名已经成为DocuSign更大的协议云产品的一部分。合同生命周期管理（“CLM”）等其余组件需要更广泛的推广，因为需要集成企业软件，将整个销售周期延长至约3-4个季度。因此，当客户选择专注于更关键的电子签名时，从COVID之前获得的最初销售牵引力突然停止。即时的投资回报率和数字化实施的便利性也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p>As per CEO Springer during Q1&#39;22 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>根据首席执行官 Springer 在 2022 年第一季度盈利看涨期权上的说法：</blockquote></p><p>&#34;Now we see those starting to come back. And so we see the pipeline starting to build, as we did actually starting in Q4 start more aggressively there. So those are demonstrably coming back, and I think those will be larger deal sizes that we will see.Interest in Agreement Cloud is starting to pick up again as businesses adapt to the new way of working. And basing it on the estimated sales cycle, the growth should be back on track. Agreement cloud has the potential to put DocuSign above the other e-signature providers, albeit only showing insignificant revenue for now. Readers do have to note that this is still considered a greenfield opportunity for the company, and it will be up to the management to effectively market its value proposition.</p><p><blockquote>“现在我们看到这些开始回归。因此，我们看到管道开始建设，就像我们实际上从第四季度开始更积极地开始一样。因此，这些显然正在回归，我认为这些将是更大的交易规模我们将看到随着企业适应新的工作方式，人们对协议云的兴趣开始再次回升。根据估计的销售周期，增长应该会回到正轨。Agreement cloud有潜力将DocuSign置于其他电子签名提供商之上，尽管目前仅显示出微不足道的收入。读者必须指出，这仍然被认为是该公司的一个绿地机会，有效地营销其价值主张将取决于管理层。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customers&#39; Reviews</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户评论</b></blockquote></p><p>The company interviewed users from Unilever (LON:ULVR)(NYSE:UL) and Snowflake (NASDAQ:SNOW) during their 2021 Analyst Day.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在 2021 年分析师日期间采访了联合利华 (LON:ULVR)(NYSE:UL) 和雪花 (NASDAQ:SNOW) 的用户。</blockquote></p><p>One of the highlights was that Unilever had already been using SpringCM and Seal software when they were still independent companies. Both were then acquired by DocuSign as part of Agreement Cloud products. According to Lim Wei Ling, Unilever&#39;s Global Supply Chain General Counsel:</p><p><blockquote>其中一个亮点是，联合利华在还是独立公司时就已经在使用SpringCM和Seal软件了。两者随后都被DocuSign收购，作为协议云产品的一部分。联合利华全球供应链总法律顾问林伟玲表示：</blockquote></p><p>And so primary driver was to find ways to give time back to our colleagues, give time back to our business partners, so that they can do even more value-add work and also to create capabilities that will generate data-driven insights for them that they can take action on. And so it was with this in mind that we wanted to take advantage of the contract automation, the contract building capabilities and the contract analytics capabilities in the Agreement Cloud.This validates the whole Agreement Cloud concept, showing that it&#39;s not just a bold vision from the management team.</p><p><blockquote>因此，首要驱动力是找到方法将时间还给我们的同事，将时间还给我们的业务合作伙伴，以便他们可以做更多增值工作，并创建能力，为他们生成数据驱动的见解，以便他们可以采取行动。因此，考虑到这一点，我们希望利用协议云中的合同自动化、合同构建功能和合同分析功能。这验证了整个协议云概念，表明这不仅仅是管理团队的一个大胆愿景。</blockquote></p><p>In addition, Snowflake chose to use DocuSign over other providers as they offer a future roadmap. This fits into the company&#39;s &#34;land &amp; expand&#34; strategy - from introducing e-signatures to gradually utilizing the different components of the whole Agreement cloud - allowing users to achieve more ROI as they explore more of the use cases.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Snowflake选择使用DocuSign而不是其他提供商，因为他们提供了未来的路线图。这符合该公司的“土地和扩展”战略——从引入电子签名到逐步利用整个协议云的不同组件——允许用户在探索更多用例时实现更多的投资回报率。</blockquote></p><p>Looking at the reviews from G2.com&amp;Gartner, DocuSign&#39;s e-signature is at a premium pricing above the rest. Despite that, it&#39;s still the undisputed leader in the e-signature market. The strength of its brand, its integration to many enterprise software, and potential extensions to other value-adding software certainly justify the costs.</p><p><blockquote>从G2.com&amp;Gartner的评论来看，DocuSign的电子签名定价高于其他产品。尽管如此，它仍然是电子签名市场无可争议的领导者。其品牌的实力、与许多企业软件的集成以及对其他增值软件的潜在扩展当然证明了成本的合理性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279430e025777ecf2a913e148ab211dd\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"642\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Winter 2021 Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：2021 年冬季投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p>Similar to our Q2&#39;22 article, we will use a 5 year Discounted Cash Flow (&#34;DCF&#34;) valuation method to determine a fair value for DocuSign, and bring it back to its present value.</p><p><blockquote>与我们的 22 年第二季度文章类似，我们将使用 5 年贴现现金流 (“DCF”) 估值方法来确定 DocuSign 的公允价值，并将其恢复到现值。</blockquote></p><p>We have shared how we derived the variables such as Discount Rate, Dilution, and Exit Price Multiple. The variables and the assumptions made are the same, except for the drop in year 1 revenue growth rates. Using the recent quarter growth rate, we brought down the revenue growth from 50% to 40% to give a more conservative estimate.</p><p><blockquote>我们分享了如何得出贴现率、稀释度和退出价格倍数等变量。除第一年收入增长率下降外，变量及假设相同。使用最近的季度增长率，我们将收入增长从 50% 下调至 40%，以给出更保守的估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537c128d1b5c973dfbbe82d15aa29330\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author&#39;s estimates with DOCU&#39;s SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者对 DOCU 向 SEC 提交文件的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We derived an intrinsic per-share value of $219. As of 28th Dec&#39;21 closing price at $152, there&#39;s an implied upside of at least 40%.</p><p><blockquote>我们得出的每股内在价值为 219 美元。截至 21 年 12 月 28 日收盘价 152 美元，隐含上涨空间至少为 40%。</blockquote></p><p>Using the same assumptions (except year 1 growth rate) and working backward from the closing price of $152, the market is expecting a drastic growth slowdown and year 5 revenue of USD 5.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>使用相同的假设（除了第一年的增长率）并从152美元的收盘价向后计算，市场预计增长将大幅放缓，第五年的收入将达到57亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce724df4aaa47bd2a9ce56dc3c385fd\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author&#39;s estimates with DOCU&#39;s SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者对 DOCU 向 SEC 提交文件的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The management indicated during their Analyst Dayt hat the near-term goal of USD 5 billion will still be mainly from e-signatures. This means that at current prices, the market is not pricing in any growth from the Agreement Cloud in the next 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层在分析师会议上表示，50亿美元的近期目标仍将主要来自电子签名。这意味着，按照目前的价格，市场不会对未来5年内协议云的任何增长进行定价。</blockquote></p><p><b>Insider Buying</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内幕购买</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite the Q3&#39;22 results which caused the share price to drop 40%, something that caught our attention is that CEO Springer bought $5 million worth of DOCU&#39;s shares after the drop.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 22 年第三季度的业绩导致股价下跌 40%，但引起我们注意的是，首席执行官 Springer 在股价下跌后购买了价值 500 万美元的 DOCU 股票。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74319b1acc664e1ff67fff037599170\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"825\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e804a595ee217a4e80ef5637ddcb9c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"317\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SEC Form 4 7th Dec &amp; 8th Dec</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SEC Form 4 12 月 7 日和 8 日</span></p></blockquote></p><p>When asked about his buying decision during a UBS investor conference on 8th Dec, he mentioned:</p><p><blockquote>在 12 月 8 日的瑞银投资者会议上，当被问及他的购买决定时，他提到：</blockquote></p><p>I&#39;m very confident. I&#39;m making a good investment. And as I&#39;ve said openly, if the stock doesn&#39;t react over the coming days, weeks, months and doesn&#39;t get sort of more in line with where I think it should be, I&#39;ll continue to be a buyer.As an insider with full knowledge of the pipelines and daily operations, this move displayed huge confidence in DocuSign&#39;s prospects.</p><p><blockquote>我很有信心。我在做一笔不错的投资。正如我公开所说，如果该股在未来几天、几周、几个月内没有做出反应，并且没有变得更加符合我认为它应该达到的水平，我将继续成为买家。作为一个对管道和日常运营了如指掌的内部人士，此举显示了对DocuSign前景的巨大信心。</blockquote></p><p><b>Closing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关闭</b></blockquote></p><p>The pandemic had made e-signature a mission-critical software for businesses to operate in today&#39;s &#34;Anywhere Economy&#34;. DocuSign is positioning itself by being more than that, as e-signatures get commoditized. By tapping on its industry-leading brand presence, the company is leading customers into its larger value-adding Agreement Cloud.</p><p><blockquote>疫情使电子签名成为企业在当今“无处不在的经济”中运营的关键任务软件。随着电子签名的商品化，DocuSign将自己定位为不止于此。通过利用其行业领先的品牌形象，该公司正在引导客户进入其更大的增值协议云。</blockquote></p><p>Current prices seemed to only factor in the growth of e-signature. Even though the whole Agreement Cloud segment is still small, there are already customers utilizing specific products. As DocuSign gradually gets embedded into customers&#39; workflows with more products, its software will become stickier. With increasing sales traction, the Agreement Cloud has the potential to become a game-changer and key revenue contribution for DocuSign in the near future.</p><p><blockquote>目前的价格似乎只是电子签名增长的一个因素。尽管整个协议云细分市场仍然很小，但已经有客户在使用特定的产品。随着DocuSign随着更多的产品逐渐嵌入客户的工作流程，其软件将变得更具粘性。随着销售牵引力的增加，协议云有可能在不久的将来成为DocuSign的游戏规则改变者和主要收入贡献。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477363-docusign-e-signature-is-here-to-stay\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DOCU":"Docusign"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477363-docusign-e-signature-is-here-to-stay","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125606718","content_text":"SummaryManagement missed billings guidance coming into Q3’22, resulting in market reaction.E-signatures are still going to be used even when businesses are slowly returning to offices due to its convenience, unlike Zoom’s video conferencing.The Agreement Cloud is gaining back traction after an abrupt stop caused by COVID.At current prices, only growth of e-signature revenues in the next 5 years is priced in.CEO Dan Springer purchased $5M worth of stock after earnings.Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThis article is contributed by Douglas from our Superstocks Seekers team.[To receive real-time notifications of our latest updates/articles, click the \"Follow\" button on the left of your screen.]We previously gave an overview of DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU) from Q2'22 results. Following its Q3'22 earnings release, there was a market reaction that resulted in a 40% drop in stock price. Let's look into the results to assess whether the drop is warranted.Q3'22 FinancialsWe will be looking at only subscription revenue as it is the reflection of the strength of DocuSign's product offerings, comprising ~97% of their revenue. The management is looking to gradually move all its professional integration services to partners so that they can fully focus on improving & selling their products.Source: DOCU's SEC FilingsDocuSign achieved a record $529 million in subscription revenue in Q3. However, the YoY growth rates have been normalizing back to pre-Covid levels.Source: DOCU's SEC FilingsBillings are the amount invoiced to customers in the quarter. It includes both current and future quarter revenue since customers usually pre-pay for annual contracts. Hence, this metric will give a partial glimpse into future quarters' performance. Due to the variety of contractual terms and customer usage patterns, there's bound to be quarterly fluctuations, thus management always advises to view it from a trailing twelve months basis.However, by just looking at Q3'22 billing YoY growth, it seems to be one of the negative factors affecting investors' confidence. Q3'21 is the period where companies are starting to resume normal operations digitally, as lockdowns begin to loosen after the initial shock from COVID. (This phenomenon was also reflected in Airbnb's (NASDAQ:ABNB) Q3'20 booking numbers as shown in our previous article.) Thus, it created huge demands for e-signatures, even if companies might not know the full extent of use cases yet.For Q3'22 to show such a large deceleration in growth, there can be two reasons: 1) Companies bought excessive capacity in their initial buy just to prepare for any downturns in events, and have not consumed all. 2) Companies bought small capacity, and have already renewed with larger contracts in the subsequent quarters. Either reason reflected a slowdown in consumption patterns.Additionally, there was a slight sales execution issue causing this as mentioned by CEO Daniel Springer in the earnings call. From the onset of COVID, they were very focused on rapidly capturing the demand up till now. This shifted their focus away from educating customers on the extensive use cases, which they used to do as part of their \"land & expand\" strategy.We stopped doing that as people just need more and more volume for their existing use cases, right? And so I think that's the gap in our execution. And as Cynthia described, a huge portion of our field has joined since pandemic began because we've been growing at such a rate. And we haven't done the job we need to do at enabling them at the traditional DocuSign sort of land and expand processes.Source: Winter 2021 Investor PresentationDespite the slowdown in revenue & billings growth, Net Dollar Retention (\"NDR\") rates are still looking healthy. It should be noted that NDR rates were still being driven by the expansion of e-signature use cases, as the application of Agreement Cloud is still in the early stages (more on it below).Management GuidanceSource: Earnings CallsManagement had initially expected their COVID demand to die down from the start of Q1, thus guiding full-year billings growth of only 31% during Q4'21. Due to the unexpected growth for the first 2 quarters, the management optimistically adjusted their guidance. The slowdown in growth then happened in Q3, missing the guidance, which might have surprised them. As a result, they lowered their Q4 guidance. These moves seldom go well with investors, sending the stock down 40%.COVID Stock?A mention of \"COVID Stocks\" brings to mind Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) and DocuSign. Both businesses enable remote working through video conferencing and e-signature respectively. A look at Zoom's revenue growth clearly showed how COVID impacted their business.Source: Zoom's SEC FilingsDespite showing similar growth profiles, it would be unfair to project such a massive growth deceleration for DocuSign. As users start returning to offices, it's more likely for them to switch back to in-person meetings than returning to manual mailing processes to close agreements. In-person meetings still have intangible benefits that video conferencing can't provide. On the other hand, e-signatures are simply cheaper, faster, and more accessible, providing a clear Return On Investment (\"ROI\") for users that have switched.Agreement Cloud ProgressE-signature has become part of the larger Agreement Cloud offering from DocuSign. The remaining components such as Contract Lifecycle Management (\"CLM\") require a more extensive rollout as enterprise software needs to be integrated, lengthening the whole sales cycle to about 3-4 quarters. Thus, the initial sales traction gained from pre-COVID was put to an abrupt stop when customers chose to focus on the more mission-critical e-signature. The immediate ROI and ease of implementation digitally also played a part.As per CEO Springer during Q1'22 earnings call:\"Now we see those starting to come back. And so we see the pipeline starting to build, as we did actually starting in Q4 start more aggressively there. So those are demonstrably coming back, and I think those will be larger deal sizes that we will see.Interest in Agreement Cloud is starting to pick up again as businesses adapt to the new way of working. And basing it on the estimated sales cycle, the growth should be back on track. Agreement cloud has the potential to put DocuSign above the other e-signature providers, albeit only showing insignificant revenue for now. Readers do have to note that this is still considered a greenfield opportunity for the company, and it will be up to the management to effectively market its value proposition.Customers' ReviewsThe company interviewed users from Unilever (LON:ULVR)(NYSE:UL) and Snowflake (NASDAQ:SNOW) during their 2021 Analyst Day.One of the highlights was that Unilever had already been using SpringCM and Seal software when they were still independent companies. Both were then acquired by DocuSign as part of Agreement Cloud products. According to Lim Wei Ling, Unilever's Global Supply Chain General Counsel:And so primary driver was to find ways to give time back to our colleagues, give time back to our business partners, so that they can do even more value-add work and also to create capabilities that will generate data-driven insights for them that they can take action on. And so it was with this in mind that we wanted to take advantage of the contract automation, the contract building capabilities and the contract analytics capabilities in the Agreement Cloud.This validates the whole Agreement Cloud concept, showing that it's not just a bold vision from the management team.In addition, Snowflake chose to use DocuSign over other providers as they offer a future roadmap. This fits into the company's \"land & expand\" strategy - from introducing e-signatures to gradually utilizing the different components of the whole Agreement cloud - allowing users to achieve more ROI as they explore more of the use cases.Looking at the reviews from G2.com&Gartner, DocuSign's e-signature is at a premium pricing above the rest. Despite that, it's still the undisputed leader in the e-signature market. The strength of its brand, its integration to many enterprise software, and potential extensions to other value-adding software certainly justify the costs.Source: Winter 2021 Investor PresentationValuationSimilar to our Q2'22 article, we will use a 5 year Discounted Cash Flow (\"DCF\") valuation method to determine a fair value for DocuSign, and bring it back to its present value.We have shared how we derived the variables such as Discount Rate, Dilution, and Exit Price Multiple. The variables and the assumptions made are the same, except for the drop in year 1 revenue growth rates. Using the recent quarter growth rate, we brought down the revenue growth from 50% to 40% to give a more conservative estimate.Source: Author's estimates with DOCU's SEC FilingsWe derived an intrinsic per-share value of $219. As of 28th Dec'21 closing price at $152, there's an implied upside of at least 40%.Using the same assumptions (except year 1 growth rate) and working backward from the closing price of $152, the market is expecting a drastic growth slowdown and year 5 revenue of USD 5.7 billion.Source: Author's estimates with DOCU's SEC FilingsThe management indicated during their Analyst Dayt hat the near-term goal of USD 5 billion will still be mainly from e-signatures. This means that at current prices, the market is not pricing in any growth from the Agreement Cloud in the next 5 years.Insider BuyingDespite the Q3'22 results which caused the share price to drop 40%, something that caught our attention is that CEO Springer bought $5 million worth of DOCU's shares after the drop.Source: SEC Form 4 7th Dec & 8th DecWhen asked about his buying decision during a UBS investor conference on 8th Dec, he mentioned:I'm very confident. I'm making a good investment. And as I've said openly, if the stock doesn't react over the coming days, weeks, months and doesn't get sort of more in line with where I think it should be, I'll continue to be a buyer.As an insider with full knowledge of the pipelines and daily operations, this move displayed huge confidence in DocuSign's prospects.ClosingThe pandemic had made e-signature a mission-critical software for businesses to operate in today's \"Anywhere Economy\". DocuSign is positioning itself by being more than that, as e-signatures get commoditized. By tapping on its industry-leading brand presence, the company is leading customers into its larger value-adding Agreement Cloud.Current prices seemed to only factor in the growth of e-signature. Even though the whole Agreement Cloud segment is still small, there are already customers utilizing specific products. As DocuSign gradually gets embedded into customers' workflows with more products, its software will become stickier. With increasing sales traction, the Agreement Cloud has the potential to become a game-changer and key revenue contribution for DocuSign in the near future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOCU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821764954,"gmtCreate":1633793001827,"gmtModify":1633793001827,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821764954","repostId":"2174920514","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886307826,"gmtCreate":1631548004765,"gmtModify":1631885044793,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886307826","repostId":"2167581527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802804427,"gmtCreate":1627744683269,"gmtModify":1631885044802,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802804427","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164808250,"gmtCreate":1624187413470,"gmtModify":1631885044813,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164808250","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114142460,"gmtCreate":1623060683550,"gmtModify":1631885044836,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114142460","repostId":"1184606456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115297171,"gmtCreate":1622995300593,"gmtModify":1631885044855,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news","listText":"Good news","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115297171","repostId":"1156802172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112286637,"gmtCreate":1622874113629,"gmtModify":1631884325713,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope itcan really reach $100","listText":"Hope itcan really reach $100","text":"Hope itcan really reach $100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112286637","repostId":"1148130971","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li>  <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li>  <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来汽车的股价在过去一年中飙升了 816% 以上，在 3 月初成长型股票抛售之前，于 2 月初达到近 62 美元的峰值。</li><li>公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪不断增长，预计将提升公司估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来汽车的股价到 2025 年将飙升至 160 美元以上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images 新闻来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来，它已经在电动汽车领域的狂热投资者中获得了极大的国际关注。自蔚来在 2018 年年中首次交付以来，只有短短三年时间，但许多人已经在猜测其股价能否达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的交易价格超过每股 600 美元，市值超过 6000 亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来在 2025 年之前有潜力突破每股 100 美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近 60 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，该公司的上涨潜力超过 35%。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今已在华销售和交付超过10万辆汽车。该公司拥有五款零排放、全电池供电的车型，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸 SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将其全球扩张计划变为现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到 100 美元不再是 “是否 ”的问题，而是 “何时 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新技术的开拓者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池更换技术 “Power Swap ”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车通常行驶里程有限的问题。类似于加油站，Power Swap是一种电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池可使蔚来汽车行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车181英里平均行驶里程的两倍多。蔚来车主可选择订阅「电池即服务」（「BaaS」）套餐，这是一项按月订阅服务，可根据个人需求为蔚来车主提供灵活的电池升级选择。该公司目前提供标准的 75 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 310 英里；以及增强型 100 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 435 英里；在BaaS下，两者都可供蔚来所有者按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个换电站，随着蔚来和中石化最近签署战略合作伙伴协议，更多的换电站正在建设中。蔚来的汽车还兼容本地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国 164 个城市的 1140 个汽车充电站，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.</p><p><blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以便在更广泛的电动汽车和科技领域保持竞争力。蔚来自2016年以来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，2018年在北京公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对客运未来的承诺也体现在他们开发的 EVE 上，这是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的 NOMI AI（全球首个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步推进其在自动驾驶技术方面的进展，蔚来最近与英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司 Mobileye 合作，开发不需要人工交互的驾驶自动化（即 “4 级 ”自动驾驶）并将其商业化。他们的合作有望加速蔚来推出 “自动驾驶即服务 ”（ADaaS）套餐，该套餐是其自动驾驶技术 “蔚来自动驾驶 ”（NAD）的月度订阅。然而，与特斯拉的 “全自动驾驶 ”套件类似，预计将于 2022 年推出的 NAD 技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实将蔚来推向了与行业领导者特斯拉不相上下的位置。蔚来用户可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。目前上路的蔚来汽车超过 102,000 辆，新的订阅套餐预计将带来 8.4 亿元人民币（1.32 亿美元）的增量年销售额；假设大多数现有蔚来车主都注册了这项服务，那么在这项服务推出时，额外的收入来源估计约为 100 亿元人民币（16 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的持续发展有望在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求量最大的细分市场之一，估计价值达1.6万亿美元。如果占据该市场 6% 的份额，蔚来现有 670 亿美元的市值将至少增加 1000 亿美元，使其每股价值超过 100 美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的纯电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占领上述6%以上的市场份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股价格超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将达到约 300,000 辆，总收入将达到约 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\"><span>Source: ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破 100 美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直透露其全球扩张的意图，尤其是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设其首个海外销售和服务中心。2022 年，该品牌在挪威的足迹将进一步扩大，蔚来将在卑尔根、斯塔万格、特隆赫姆和克里斯蒂安桑开设四家门店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将为欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为蔚来的新车主提供该品牌赖以取得成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰 SUV ES8 目前的起售价约为 6.7 万美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，随后该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车 ET7 将于 2022 年推出。</blockquote></p><p> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在中国豪华电动汽车市场拥有良好的销售记录，其规格可与全球知名的特斯拉相媲美，因此没有理由不在海外取得成功。如前所述，蔚来车辆充满电后的续航里程可达 435 英里，对于那些正在寻找可靠伴侣陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行的欧美潜在车主来说，这是一个理想的选择。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的偏好相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Historical Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的历史表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.</p><p><blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销售仍在继续，但由于流动性问题，蔚来的股价还是创下了不到 2 美元的历史新低。2020 年年中，中国合肥市政府出手相救，注资 70 亿元人民币（约合 10 亿美元）。该安排导致“蔚来中国”成立，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来中国 90.36% 的股权，“合肥战略投资者”财团持有剩余 9.64% 的股权。这种合作关系成为公司的生命线；额外的资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显著改善，这反映在公司强劲的财务业绩和 2020 年夏季股价的上升趋势上。到 2020 年第二季度末，蔚来的股价平均反弹了近 20%，总收入环比增长了 171%。该公司股价在 2020 年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均达到 15.40 美元，并继续攀升至第四季度的平均水平 38.70 美元。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为 50.97 美元，2 月份达到近 62 美元的峰值，是其 2018 年 IPO 价格的 10 倍多。如今，该公司的市值超过 670 亿美元，超过了在纽约证券交易所首次亮相时的 10 亿美元市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.</p><p><blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在 2 月底成长型股票抛售之前达到顶峰以来，蔚来的基本面也一直在稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级加速，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，占2020年总交付量的近50%。该公司继续展现出光明的前景，4 月份交付了超过 7,100 辆汽车，同比增长超过 125%。蔚来在2021年第一季度还保持了经营活动的正现金流，这得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，使其毛利率提高到19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者相当第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将接近 300,000 辆，相当于总收入约为 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）（每股 18.60 美元）。近期与合营企业「江淮汽车集团」（「江淮汽车集团」）重续的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的整车销售预测，该协议将目前的年产能由100,000辆增加至240,000辆；目前正在合肥兴建的「NeoPark」预计年产能将增加100万台，进一步支持我们对蔚来继续致力于发展业务的积极前景。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为 16.43 倍，年收入约为 420 亿美元（第一季度收入年化为 103.89 亿美元），同样的比例应用于蔚来预测的 2025 财年总收入，预计市盈率将达到 8.7 倍，股价将超过 160 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO vs. LI and XPEV</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来与李和 XPEV</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Finviz</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finviz</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与国内同行进行了比较，以确定蔚来股价超过 100 美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于李和XPEV，前者的交易倍数应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到 18.1 倍（XPEV 的中点），也将推动该公司目前的股价升至 51.50 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，这意味着 22% 的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来 2025 财年收入的预测为 1400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元），即每股 18.60 美元，即使是 18.1 倍的一半也足以让蔚来的股价在 2025 年突破 160 美元；我们相信，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为运营现金和届时实现的技术进步将使他们在电动汽车行业走上持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到 2030 年及以后品牌的 4 级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于蔚来的文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB检查要求；否则，上述公司审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前正在接受普华永道中天会计师事务所（PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP）的审计，该事务所已被列入 PCAOB 的拒绝准入名单。如果中国当局和 PCAOB 不能尽快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会对投资者起到威慑作用，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是全球芯片供应持续短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的各项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距正在扩大。蔚来也不例外，受到持续芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，正如他们逐月增加的交付数量所证明的那样；在蔚来最新发布的 4 月份交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了 7100 多辆汽车，同比增长 125%。</blockquote></p><p> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车领域的竞争也愈演愈烈。由于对气候变化的担忧日益加剧，加上传统汽油动力汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度在过去十年中发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的准入门槛也显着降低；新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，因为初始投资变得比 2003 年特斯拉更加合理，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并在汽车行业保持竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期取得成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（在此进一步分析）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌形象，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合他们在生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略方面的成熟能力，蔚来正在有效地缩小他们与特斯拉在全球范围内电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是这家电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，而蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价上，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，它们是一个值得选择的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 12:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li>  <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li>  <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来汽车的股价在过去一年中飙升了 816% 以上，在 3 月初成长型股票抛售之前，于 2 月初达到近 62 美元的峰值。</li><li>公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪不断增长，预计将提升公司估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来汽车的股价到 2025 年将飙升至 160 美元以上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images 新闻来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来，它已经在电动汽车领域的狂热投资者中获得了极大的国际关注。自蔚来在 2018 年年中首次交付以来，只有短短三年时间，但许多人已经在猜测其股价能否达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的交易价格超过每股 600 美元，市值超过 6000 亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来在 2025 年之前有潜力突破每股 100 美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近 60 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，该公司的上涨潜力超过 35%。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今已在华销售和交付超过10万辆汽车。该公司拥有五款零排放、全电池供电的车型，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸 SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将其全球扩张计划变为现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到 100 美元不再是 “是否 ”的问题，而是 “何时 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新技术的开拓者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池更换技术 “Power Swap ”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车通常行驶里程有限的问题。类似于加油站，Power Swap是一种电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池可使蔚来汽车行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车181英里平均行驶里程的两倍多。蔚来车主可选择订阅「电池即服务」（「BaaS」）套餐，这是一项按月订阅服务，可根据个人需求为蔚来车主提供灵活的电池升级选择。该公司目前提供标准的 75 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 310 英里；以及增强型 100 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 435 英里；在BaaS下，两者都可供蔚来所有者按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个换电站，随着蔚来和中石化最近签署战略合作伙伴协议，更多的换电站正在建设中。蔚来的汽车还兼容本地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国 164 个城市的 1140 个汽车充电站，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.</p><p><blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以便在更广泛的电动汽车和科技领域保持竞争力。蔚来自2016年以来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，2018年在北京公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对客运未来的承诺也体现在他们开发的 EVE 上，这是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的 NOMI AI（全球首个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步推进其在自动驾驶技术方面的进展，蔚来最近与英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司 Mobileye 合作，开发不需要人工交互的驾驶自动化（即 “4 级 ”自动驾驶）并将其商业化。他们的合作有望加速蔚来推出 “自动驾驶即服务 ”（ADaaS）套餐，该套餐是其自动驾驶技术 “蔚来自动驾驶 ”（NAD）的月度订阅。然而，与特斯拉的 “全自动驾驶 ”套件类似，预计将于 2022 年推出的 NAD 技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实将蔚来推向了与行业领导者特斯拉不相上下的位置。蔚来用户可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。目前上路的蔚来汽车超过 102,000 辆，新的订阅套餐预计将带来 8.4 亿元人民币（1.32 亿美元）的增量年销售额；假设大多数现有蔚来车主都注册了这项服务，那么在这项服务推出时，额外的收入来源估计约为 100 亿元人民币（16 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的持续发展有望在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求量最大的细分市场之一，估计价值达1.6万亿美元。如果占据该市场 6% 的份额，蔚来现有 670 亿美元的市值将至少增加 1000 亿美元，使其每股价值超过 100 美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的纯电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占领上述6%以上的市场份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股价格超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将达到约 300,000 辆，总收入将达到约 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\"><span>Source: ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破 100 美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直透露其全球扩张的意图，尤其是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设其首个海外销售和服务中心。2022 年，该品牌在挪威的足迹将进一步扩大，蔚来将在卑尔根、斯塔万格、特隆赫姆和克里斯蒂安桑开设四家门店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将为欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为蔚来的新车主提供该品牌赖以取得成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰 SUV ES8 目前的起售价约为 6.7 万美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，随后该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车 ET7 将于 2022 年推出。</blockquote></p><p> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在中国豪华电动汽车市场拥有良好的销售记录，其规格可与全球知名的特斯拉相媲美，因此没有理由不在海外取得成功。如前所述，蔚来车辆充满电后的续航里程可达 435 英里，对于那些正在寻找可靠伴侣陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行的欧美潜在车主来说，这是一个理想的选择。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的偏好相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Historical Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的历史表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.</p><p><blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销售仍在继续，但由于流动性问题，蔚来的股价还是创下了不到 2 美元的历史新低。2020 年年中，中国合肥市政府出手相救，注资 70 亿元人民币（约合 10 亿美元）。该安排导致“蔚来中国”成立，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来中国 90.36% 的股权，“合肥战略投资者”财团持有剩余 9.64% 的股权。这种合作关系成为公司的生命线；额外的资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显著改善，这反映在公司强劲的财务业绩和 2020 年夏季股价的上升趋势上。到 2020 年第二季度末，蔚来的股价平均反弹了近 20%，总收入环比增长了 171%。该公司股价在 2020 年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均达到 15.40 美元，并继续攀升至第四季度的平均水平 38.70 美元。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为 50.97 美元，2 月份达到近 62 美元的峰值，是其 2018 年 IPO 价格的 10 倍多。如今，该公司的市值超过 670 亿美元，超过了在纽约证券交易所首次亮相时的 10 亿美元市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.</p><p><blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在 2 月底成长型股票抛售之前达到顶峰以来，蔚来的基本面也一直在稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级加速，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，占2020年总交付量的近50%。该公司继续展现出光明的前景，4 月份交付了超过 7,100 辆汽车，同比增长超过 125%。蔚来在2021年第一季度还保持了经营活动的正现金流，这得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，使其毛利率提高到19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者相当第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将接近 300,000 辆，相当于总收入约为 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）（每股 18.60 美元）。近期与合营企业「江淮汽车集团」（「江淮汽车集团」）重续的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的整车销售预测，该协议将目前的年产能由100,000辆增加至240,000辆；目前正在合肥兴建的「NeoPark」预计年产能将增加100万台，进一步支持我们对蔚来继续致力于发展业务的积极前景。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为 16.43 倍，年收入约为 420 亿美元（第一季度收入年化为 103.89 亿美元），同样的比例应用于蔚来预测的 2025 财年总收入，预计市盈率将达到 8.7 倍，股价将超过 160 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO vs. LI and XPEV</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来与李和 XPEV</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Finviz</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finviz</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与国内同行进行了比较，以确定蔚来股价超过 100 美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于李和XPEV，前者的交易倍数应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到 18.1 倍（XPEV 的中点），也将推动该公司目前的股价升至 51.50 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，这意味着 22% 的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来 2025 财年收入的预测为 1400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元），即每股 18.60 美元，即使是 18.1 倍的一半也足以让蔚来的股价在 2025 年突破 160 美元；我们相信，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为运营现金和届时实现的技术进步将使他们在电动汽车行业走上持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到 2030 年及以后品牌的 4 级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于蔚来的文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB检查要求；否则，上述公司审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前正在接受普华永道中天会计师事务所（PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP）的审计，该事务所已被列入 PCAOB 的拒绝准入名单。如果中国当局和 PCAOB 不能尽快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会对投资者起到威慑作用，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是全球芯片供应持续短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的各项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距正在扩大。蔚来也不例外，受到持续芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，正如他们逐月增加的交付数量所证明的那样；在蔚来最新发布的 4 月份交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了 7100 多辆汽车，同比增长 125%。</blockquote></p><p> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车领域的竞争也愈演愈烈。由于对气候变化的担忧日益加剧，加上传统汽油动力汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度在过去十年中发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的准入门槛也显着降低；新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，因为初始投资变得比 2003 年特斯拉更加合理，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并在汽车行业保持竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期取得成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（在此进一步分析）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌形象，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合他们在生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略方面的成熟能力，蔚来正在有效地缩小他们与特斯拉在全球范围内电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是这家电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，而蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价上，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，它们是一个值得选择的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119512498,"gmtCreate":1622554888714,"gmtModify":1631885044867,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119512498","repostId":"1136499588","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119516210,"gmtCreate":1622554848830,"gmtModify":1631885044882,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119516210","repostId":"2140618864","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110556582,"gmtCreate":1622471755946,"gmtModify":1631885044893,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110556582","repostId":"2139453630","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137421593,"gmtCreate":1622379743312,"gmtModify":1631885044913,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137421593","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137423442,"gmtCreate":1622379642086,"gmtModify":1631885044933,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy more amc..hodl!!!","listText":"Buy more amc..hodl!!!","text":"Buy more amc..hodl!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137423442","repostId":"1170854386","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137423679,"gmtCreate":1622379599891,"gmtModify":1631889317162,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137423679","repostId":"2138488778","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137326786,"gmtCreate":1622302932345,"gmtModify":1631889317160,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Should we buy thr dip?","listText":"Should we buy thr dip?","text":"Should we buy thr dip?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137326786","repostId":"2138765488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133575237,"gmtCreate":1621777008429,"gmtModify":1631889317168,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133575237","repostId":"1111747453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111747453","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621609858,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111747453?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s New Plaid Model Is Ready. That Should Help the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的新款格子图案已经准备就绪。这应该有助于股票。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111747453","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla’s updated Model S sedan is ready.CEO Elon Musk tweeted out Thursday that his company will host a delivery event for the Plaid model of its Model S electric car on June 3. That is a milestone investors who are bullish on Tesla stock have been waiting for, but it isn’t the most important one.Tesla stock rose 4.1% amid a broad market rally Thursday, but the gain still left shares down for the week. Tesla stock was up another 0.8% in Friday trading, a touch better than the 0.7% gain in the Dow","content":"<p>Tesla’s updated Model S sedan is ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉更新后的 Model S 轿车已经准备就绪。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Elon Musk tweeted out Thursday that his company will host a delivery event for the Plaid model of its Model S electric car on June 3. That is a milestone investors who are bullish on Tesla stock have been waiting for, but it isn’t the most important one.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 周四在推特上表示，他的公司将于 6 月 3 日举办 Model S 电动汽车格子车型的交付活动。这是看好特斯拉股票的投资者一直在等待的一个里程碑，但这并不是最重要的里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Beginning deliveries should help the stock—-a little.</p><p><blockquote>开始交付应该会对股票有所帮助——一点点。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla(ticker: TSLA) stock rose 4.1% amid a broad market rally Thursday, but the gain still left shares down for the week. Tesla stock was up another 0.8% in Friday trading, a touch better than the 0.7% gain in the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was up 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股价周四在大盘上涨的情况下上涨 4.1%，但涨幅仍导致本周股价下跌。特斯拉股价周五交易中又上涨 0.8%，略好于道琼斯工业平均指数 0.7% 的涨幅。标普500上涨 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73c480440da121bd6da538ca389d0ef\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"414\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Plaid is billed by Tesla as the fastest production car ever, going zero to 60 in under 2 seconds. A&nbsp;Bugatti Chiron, which costs about $2.3 million and is equipped with a 16-cylinder, four-turbocharger engine, can go zero to 60 in about 2.3 seconds.</p><p><blockquote>Plaid 被特斯拉宣传为有史以来最快的量产车，从零到 60 不到 2 秒。布加迪 Chiron 售价约 230 万美元，配备 16 缸四涡轮增压器发动机，可在约 2.3 秒内从 0 加速到 60。</blockquote></p><p> Electric motors have better torque at zero revolutions a minute, giving drivers an incredible jolt from their initial acceleration.</p><p><blockquote>电动机在每分钟零转时具有更好的扭矩，在初始加速时给驾驶员带来难以置信的震动。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Plaid edition&nbsp;of the Model S won’t cost anywhere near as much as a Chiron, but it will still run buyers $120,000 or more. Prices like that mean the car won’t sell in the high volumes seen from the Tesla Model 3 or Model Y. Those cars can be had for what a nicely equipped sedan from&nbsp;BMW&nbsp;(BMW.Germany) or evenToyota Motor&nbsp;(TM) or&nbsp;Honda&nbsp;(HMC) can cost.</p><p><blockquote>格子版 Model S 的价格远不及 Chiron，但仍将花费 12 万美元或更多。这样的价格意味着这款车的销量不会像特斯拉 Model 3 或 Model Y 那样高。这些汽车的价格与宝马 (BMW.Germany) 或丰田汽车 (TM) 或本田 (HMC) 的装备精良的轿车价格相当。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the launch highlights Tesla’s ability to update its designs. The first Model S went into production almost a decade ago. Its performance shows Tesla is improving on its technologies for battery management and electric motors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这次发布还是凸显了特斯拉更新设计的能力。第一辆 Model S 于近十年前投入生产。其表现表明特斯拉正在改进其电池管理和电动机技术。</blockquote></p><p> All that is important for perceptions about Tesla, but there are bigger things on investors’ minds. Tesla is building new capacity in Austin, Texas, andBerlin. Investors want to see both plants on line by the end of the year, giving Tesla the output capacity needed to increase sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些对人们对特斯拉的看法都很重要，但投资者心中还有更重要的事情。特斯拉正在德克萨斯奥斯汀和柏林建设新的产能。投资者希望看到这两家工厂在今年年底前上线，从而为特斯拉提供增加销量所需的产能。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also want updates about the company’s autonomous driving programs. Musk has boasted the company is close to&nbsp;achieving fully autonomous cars&nbsp;with newer versions of its self-driving software. The new versions probably won’t mean drivers can actually leave the driver seat, but better driver-assistance functions are a competitive advantage for auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还希望了解该公司自动驾驶项目的最新情况。马斯克吹嘘说，该公司即将通过新版本的自动驾驶软件实现全自动驾驶汽车。新版本可能并不意味着驾驶员可以真正离开驾驶座，但更好的驾驶辅助功能是汽车制造商的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> The next version of the Tesla software is due to roll out in coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉软件的下一个版本将在未来几周内推出。</blockquote></p><p> Capacity and autonomous driving have the potential to lift the stock in coming years. The Model S Plaid can help it in coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>产能和自动驾驶有可能在未来几年提振该股。Model S Plaid 可以在未来几个季度为其提供帮助。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is in need of a lift. Shares are down about 35% from their 52-week high of more than $900, reached in January.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票需要提振。股价较 1 月份触及的 52 周高点超过 900 美元下跌约 35%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s New Plaid Model Is Ready. That Should Help the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的新款格子图案已经准备就绪。这应该有助于股票。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s New Plaid Model Is Ready. That Should Help the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的新款格子图案已经准备就绪。这应该有助于股票。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 23:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla’s updated Model S sedan is ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉更新后的 Model S 轿车已经准备就绪。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Elon Musk tweeted out Thursday that his company will host a delivery event for the Plaid model of its Model S electric car on June 3. That is a milestone investors who are bullish on Tesla stock have been waiting for, but it isn’t the most important one.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 周四在推特上表示，他的公司将于 6 月 3 日举办 Model S 电动汽车格子车型的交付活动。这是看好特斯拉股票的投资者一直在等待的一个里程碑，但这并不是最重要的里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Beginning deliveries should help the stock—-a little.</p><p><blockquote>开始交付应该会对股票有所帮助——一点点。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla(ticker: TSLA) stock rose 4.1% amid a broad market rally Thursday, but the gain still left shares down for the week. Tesla stock was up another 0.8% in Friday trading, a touch better than the 0.7% gain in the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was up 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股价周四在大盘上涨的情况下上涨 4.1%，但涨幅仍导致本周股价下跌。特斯拉股价周五交易中又上涨 0.8%，略好于道琼斯工业平均指数 0.7% 的涨幅。标普500上涨 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73c480440da121bd6da538ca389d0ef\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"414\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Plaid is billed by Tesla as the fastest production car ever, going zero to 60 in under 2 seconds. A&nbsp;Bugatti Chiron, which costs about $2.3 million and is equipped with a 16-cylinder, four-turbocharger engine, can go zero to 60 in about 2.3 seconds.</p><p><blockquote>Plaid 被特斯拉宣传为有史以来最快的量产车，从零到 60 不到 2 秒。布加迪 Chiron 售价约 230 万美元，配备 16 缸四涡轮增压器发动机，可在约 2.3 秒内从 0 加速到 60。</blockquote></p><p> Electric motors have better torque at zero revolutions a minute, giving drivers an incredible jolt from their initial acceleration.</p><p><blockquote>电动机在每分钟零转时具有更好的扭矩，在初始加速时给驾驶员带来难以置信的震动。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Plaid edition&nbsp;of the Model S won’t cost anywhere near as much as a Chiron, but it will still run buyers $120,000 or more. Prices like that mean the car won’t sell in the high volumes seen from the Tesla Model 3 or Model Y. Those cars can be had for what a nicely equipped sedan from&nbsp;BMW&nbsp;(BMW.Germany) or evenToyota Motor&nbsp;(TM) or&nbsp;Honda&nbsp;(HMC) can cost.</p><p><blockquote>格子版 Model S 的价格远不及 Chiron，但仍将花费 12 万美元或更多。这样的价格意味着这款车的销量不会像特斯拉 Model 3 或 Model Y 那样高。这些汽车的价格与宝马 (BMW.Germany) 或丰田汽车 (TM) 或本田 (HMC) 的装备精良的轿车价格相当。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the launch highlights Tesla’s ability to update its designs. The first Model S went into production almost a decade ago. Its performance shows Tesla is improving on its technologies for battery management and electric motors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这次发布还是凸显了特斯拉更新设计的能力。第一辆 Model S 于近十年前投入生产。其表现表明特斯拉正在改进其电池管理和电动机技术。</blockquote></p><p> All that is important for perceptions about Tesla, but there are bigger things on investors’ minds. Tesla is building new capacity in Austin, Texas, andBerlin. Investors want to see both plants on line by the end of the year, giving Tesla the output capacity needed to increase sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些对人们对特斯拉的看法都很重要，但投资者心中还有更重要的事情。特斯拉正在德克萨斯奥斯汀和柏林建设新的产能。投资者希望看到这两家工厂在今年年底前上线，从而为特斯拉提供增加销量所需的产能。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also want updates about the company’s autonomous driving programs. Musk has boasted the company is close to&nbsp;achieving fully autonomous cars&nbsp;with newer versions of its self-driving software. The new versions probably won’t mean drivers can actually leave the driver seat, but better driver-assistance functions are a competitive advantage for auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还希望了解该公司自动驾驶项目的最新情况。马斯克吹嘘说，该公司即将通过新版本的自动驾驶软件实现全自动驾驶汽车。新版本可能并不意味着驾驶员可以真正离开驾驶座，但更好的驾驶辅助功能是汽车制造商的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> The next version of the Tesla software is due to roll out in coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉软件的下一个版本将在未来几周内推出。</blockquote></p><p> Capacity and autonomous driving have the potential to lift the stock in coming years. The Model S Plaid can help it in coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>产能和自动驾驶有可能在未来几年提振该股。Model S Plaid 可以在未来几个季度为其提供帮助。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is in need of a lift. Shares are down about 35% from their 52-week high of more than $900, reached in January.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票需要提振。股价较 1 月份触及的 52 周高点超过 900 美元下跌约 35%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-model-s-new-plaid-model-ready-51621608150?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-model-s-new-plaid-model-ready-51621608150?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111747453","content_text":"Tesla’s updated Model S sedan is ready.\nCEO Elon Musk tweeted out Thursday that his company will host a delivery event for the Plaid model of its Model S electric car on June 3. That is a milestone investors who are bullish on Tesla stock have been waiting for, but it isn’t the most important one.\nBeginning deliveries should help the stock—-a little.\nTesla(ticker: TSLA) stock rose 4.1% amid a broad market rally Thursday, but the gain still left shares down for the week. Tesla stock was up another 0.8% in Friday trading, a touch better than the 0.7% gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.The S&P 500 was up 0.5%.\n\nThe Plaid is billed by Tesla as the fastest production car ever, going zero to 60 in under 2 seconds. A Bugatti Chiron, which costs about $2.3 million and is equipped with a 16-cylinder, four-turbocharger engine, can go zero to 60 in about 2.3 seconds.\nElectric motors have better torque at zero revolutions a minute, giving drivers an incredible jolt from their initial acceleration.\nThe Plaid edition of the Model S won’t cost anywhere near as much as a Chiron, but it will still run buyers $120,000 or more. Prices like that mean the car won’t sell in the high volumes seen from the Tesla Model 3 or Model Y. Those cars can be had for what a nicely equipped sedan from BMW (BMW.Germany) or evenToyota Motor (TM) or Honda (HMC) can cost.\nStill, the launch highlights Tesla’s ability to update its designs. The first Model S went into production almost a decade ago. Its performance shows Tesla is improving on its technologies for battery management and electric motors.\nAll that is important for perceptions about Tesla, but there are bigger things on investors’ minds. Tesla is building new capacity in Austin, Texas, andBerlin. Investors want to see both plants on line by the end of the year, giving Tesla the output capacity needed to increase sales.\nInvestors also want updates about the company’s autonomous driving programs. Musk has boasted the company is close to achieving fully autonomous cars with newer versions of its self-driving software. The new versions probably won’t mean drivers can actually leave the driver seat, but better driver-assistance functions are a competitive advantage for auto makers.\nThe next version of the Tesla software is due to roll out in coming weeks.\nCapacity and autonomous driving have the potential to lift the stock in coming years. The Model S Plaid can help it in coming quarters.\nTesla stock is in need of a lift. Shares are down about 35% from their 52-week high of more than $900, reached in January.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133302197,"gmtCreate":1621692877319,"gmtModify":1631889032926,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PRPO\">$Precipio, Inc.(PRPO)$</a>Why it keeps dropping","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PRPO\">$Precipio, Inc.(PRPO)$</a>Why it keeps dropping","text":"$Precipio, Inc.(PRPO)$Why it keeps dropping","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133302197","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":886307826,"gmtCreate":1631548004765,"gmtModify":1631885044793,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886307826","repostId":"2167581527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":821764954,"gmtCreate":1633793001827,"gmtModify":1633793001827,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821764954","repostId":"2174920514","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":802804427,"gmtCreate":1627744683269,"gmtModify":1631885044802,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802804427","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114142460,"gmtCreate":1623060683550,"gmtModify":1631885044836,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114142460","repostId":"1184606456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":695008416,"gmtCreate":1641258191209,"gmtModify":1641258191209,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695008416","repostId":"2200886475","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":137421593,"gmtCreate":1622379743312,"gmtModify":1631885044913,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137421593","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133575237,"gmtCreate":1621777008429,"gmtModify":1631889317168,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133575237","repostId":"1111747453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111747453","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621609858,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111747453?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s New Plaid Model Is Ready. That Should Help the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的新款格子图案已经准备就绪。这应该有助于股票。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111747453","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla’s updated Model S sedan is ready.CEO Elon Musk tweeted out Thursday that his company will host a delivery event for the Plaid model of its Model S electric car on June 3. That is a milestone investors who are bullish on Tesla stock have been waiting for, but it isn’t the most important one.Tesla stock rose 4.1% amid a broad market rally Thursday, but the gain still left shares down for the week. Tesla stock was up another 0.8% in Friday trading, a touch better than the 0.7% gain in the Dow","content":"<p>Tesla’s updated Model S sedan is ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉更新后的 Model S 轿车已经准备就绪。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Elon Musk tweeted out Thursday that his company will host a delivery event for the Plaid model of its Model S electric car on June 3. That is a milestone investors who are bullish on Tesla stock have been waiting for, but it isn’t the most important one.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 周四在推特上表示，他的公司将于 6 月 3 日举办 Model S 电动汽车格子车型的交付活动。这是看好特斯拉股票的投资者一直在等待的一个里程碑，但这并不是最重要的里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Beginning deliveries should help the stock—-a little.</p><p><blockquote>开始交付应该会对股票有所帮助——一点点。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla(ticker: TSLA) stock rose 4.1% amid a broad market rally Thursday, but the gain still left shares down for the week. Tesla stock was up another 0.8% in Friday trading, a touch better than the 0.7% gain in the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was up 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股价周四在大盘上涨的情况下上涨 4.1%，但涨幅仍导致本周股价下跌。特斯拉股价周五交易中又上涨 0.8%，略好于道琼斯工业平均指数 0.7% 的涨幅。标普500上涨 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73c480440da121bd6da538ca389d0ef\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"414\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Plaid is billed by Tesla as the fastest production car ever, going zero to 60 in under 2 seconds. A&nbsp;Bugatti Chiron, which costs about $2.3 million and is equipped with a 16-cylinder, four-turbocharger engine, can go zero to 60 in about 2.3 seconds.</p><p><blockquote>Plaid 被特斯拉宣传为有史以来最快的量产车，从零到 60 不到 2 秒。布加迪 Chiron 售价约 230 万美元，配备 16 缸四涡轮增压器发动机，可在约 2.3 秒内从 0 加速到 60。</blockquote></p><p> Electric motors have better torque at zero revolutions a minute, giving drivers an incredible jolt from their initial acceleration.</p><p><blockquote>电动机在每分钟零转时具有更好的扭矩，在初始加速时给驾驶员带来难以置信的震动。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Plaid edition&nbsp;of the Model S won’t cost anywhere near as much as a Chiron, but it will still run buyers $120,000 or more. Prices like that mean the car won’t sell in the high volumes seen from the Tesla Model 3 or Model Y. Those cars can be had for what a nicely equipped sedan from&nbsp;BMW&nbsp;(BMW.Germany) or evenToyota Motor&nbsp;(TM) or&nbsp;Honda&nbsp;(HMC) can cost.</p><p><blockquote>格子版 Model S 的价格远不及 Chiron，但仍将花费 12 万美元或更多。这样的价格意味着这款车的销量不会像特斯拉 Model 3 或 Model Y 那样高。这些汽车的价格与宝马 (BMW.Germany) 或丰田汽车 (TM) 或本田 (HMC) 的装备精良的轿车价格相当。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the launch highlights Tesla’s ability to update its designs. The first Model S went into production almost a decade ago. Its performance shows Tesla is improving on its technologies for battery management and electric motors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这次发布还是凸显了特斯拉更新设计的能力。第一辆 Model S 于近十年前投入生产。其表现表明特斯拉正在改进其电池管理和电动机技术。</blockquote></p><p> All that is important for perceptions about Tesla, but there are bigger things on investors’ minds. Tesla is building new capacity in Austin, Texas, andBerlin. Investors want to see both plants on line by the end of the year, giving Tesla the output capacity needed to increase sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些对人们对特斯拉的看法都很重要，但投资者心中还有更重要的事情。特斯拉正在德克萨斯奥斯汀和柏林建设新的产能。投资者希望看到这两家工厂在今年年底前上线，从而为特斯拉提供增加销量所需的产能。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also want updates about the company’s autonomous driving programs. Musk has boasted the company is close to&nbsp;achieving fully autonomous cars&nbsp;with newer versions of its self-driving software. The new versions probably won’t mean drivers can actually leave the driver seat, but better driver-assistance functions are a competitive advantage for auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还希望了解该公司自动驾驶项目的最新情况。马斯克吹嘘说，该公司即将通过新版本的自动驾驶软件实现全自动驾驶汽车。新版本可能并不意味着驾驶员可以真正离开驾驶座，但更好的驾驶辅助功能是汽车制造商的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> The next version of the Tesla software is due to roll out in coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉软件的下一个版本将在未来几周内推出。</blockquote></p><p> Capacity and autonomous driving have the potential to lift the stock in coming years. The Model S Plaid can help it in coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>产能和自动驾驶有可能在未来几年提振该股。Model S Plaid 可以在未来几个季度为其提供帮助。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is in need of a lift. Shares are down about 35% from their 52-week high of more than $900, reached in January.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票需要提振。股价较 1 月份触及的 52 周高点超过 900 美元下跌约 35%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s New Plaid Model Is Ready. That Should Help the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的新款格子图案已经准备就绪。这应该有助于股票。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s New Plaid Model Is Ready. That Should Help the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的新款格子图案已经准备就绪。这应该有助于股票。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 23:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla’s updated Model S sedan is ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉更新后的 Model S 轿车已经准备就绪。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Elon Musk tweeted out Thursday that his company will host a delivery event for the Plaid model of its Model S electric car on June 3. That is a milestone investors who are bullish on Tesla stock have been waiting for, but it isn’t the most important one.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 周四在推特上表示，他的公司将于 6 月 3 日举办 Model S 电动汽车格子车型的交付活动。这是看好特斯拉股票的投资者一直在等待的一个里程碑，但这并不是最重要的里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Beginning deliveries should help the stock—-a little.</p><p><blockquote>开始交付应该会对股票有所帮助——一点点。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla(ticker: TSLA) stock rose 4.1% amid a broad market rally Thursday, but the gain still left shares down for the week. Tesla stock was up another 0.8% in Friday trading, a touch better than the 0.7% gain in the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was up 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股价周四在大盘上涨的情况下上涨 4.1%，但涨幅仍导致本周股价下跌。特斯拉股价周五交易中又上涨 0.8%，略好于道琼斯工业平均指数 0.7% 的涨幅。标普500上涨 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73c480440da121bd6da538ca389d0ef\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"414\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Plaid is billed by Tesla as the fastest production car ever, going zero to 60 in under 2 seconds. A&nbsp;Bugatti Chiron, which costs about $2.3 million and is equipped with a 16-cylinder, four-turbocharger engine, can go zero to 60 in about 2.3 seconds.</p><p><blockquote>Plaid 被特斯拉宣传为有史以来最快的量产车，从零到 60 不到 2 秒。布加迪 Chiron 售价约 230 万美元，配备 16 缸四涡轮增压器发动机，可在约 2.3 秒内从 0 加速到 60。</blockquote></p><p> Electric motors have better torque at zero revolutions a minute, giving drivers an incredible jolt from their initial acceleration.</p><p><blockquote>电动机在每分钟零转时具有更好的扭矩，在初始加速时给驾驶员带来难以置信的震动。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Plaid edition&nbsp;of the Model S won’t cost anywhere near as much as a Chiron, but it will still run buyers $120,000 or more. Prices like that mean the car won’t sell in the high volumes seen from the Tesla Model 3 or Model Y. Those cars can be had for what a nicely equipped sedan from&nbsp;BMW&nbsp;(BMW.Germany) or evenToyota Motor&nbsp;(TM) or&nbsp;Honda&nbsp;(HMC) can cost.</p><p><blockquote>格子版 Model S 的价格远不及 Chiron，但仍将花费 12 万美元或更多。这样的价格意味着这款车的销量不会像特斯拉 Model 3 或 Model Y 那样高。这些汽车的价格与宝马 (BMW.Germany) 或丰田汽车 (TM) 或本田 (HMC) 的装备精良的轿车价格相当。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the launch highlights Tesla’s ability to update its designs. The first Model S went into production almost a decade ago. Its performance shows Tesla is improving on its technologies for battery management and electric motors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这次发布还是凸显了特斯拉更新设计的能力。第一辆 Model S 于近十年前投入生产。其表现表明特斯拉正在改进其电池管理和电动机技术。</blockquote></p><p> All that is important for perceptions about Tesla, but there are bigger things on investors’ minds. Tesla is building new capacity in Austin, Texas, andBerlin. Investors want to see both plants on line by the end of the year, giving Tesla the output capacity needed to increase sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些对人们对特斯拉的看法都很重要，但投资者心中还有更重要的事情。特斯拉正在德克萨斯奥斯汀和柏林建设新的产能。投资者希望看到这两家工厂在今年年底前上线，从而为特斯拉提供增加销量所需的产能。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also want updates about the company’s autonomous driving programs. Musk has boasted the company is close to&nbsp;achieving fully autonomous cars&nbsp;with newer versions of its self-driving software. The new versions probably won’t mean drivers can actually leave the driver seat, but better driver-assistance functions are a competitive advantage for auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还希望了解该公司自动驾驶项目的最新情况。马斯克吹嘘说，该公司即将通过新版本的自动驾驶软件实现全自动驾驶汽车。新版本可能并不意味着驾驶员可以真正离开驾驶座，但更好的驾驶辅助功能是汽车制造商的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> The next version of the Tesla software is due to roll out in coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉软件的下一个版本将在未来几周内推出。</blockquote></p><p> Capacity and autonomous driving have the potential to lift the stock in coming years. The Model S Plaid can help it in coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>产能和自动驾驶有可能在未来几年提振该股。Model S Plaid 可以在未来几个季度为其提供帮助。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is in need of a lift. Shares are down about 35% from their 52-week high of more than $900, reached in January.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票需要提振。股价较 1 月份触及的 52 周高点超过 900 美元下跌约 35%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-model-s-new-plaid-model-ready-51621608150?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-model-s-new-plaid-model-ready-51621608150?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111747453","content_text":"Tesla’s updated Model S sedan is ready.\nCEO Elon Musk tweeted out Thursday that his company will host a delivery event for the Plaid model of its Model S electric car on June 3. That is a milestone investors who are bullish on Tesla stock have been waiting for, but it isn’t the most important one.\nBeginning deliveries should help the stock—-a little.\nTesla(ticker: TSLA) stock rose 4.1% amid a broad market rally Thursday, but the gain still left shares down for the week. Tesla stock was up another 0.8% in Friday trading, a touch better than the 0.7% gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.The S&P 500 was up 0.5%.\n\nThe Plaid is billed by Tesla as the fastest production car ever, going zero to 60 in under 2 seconds. A Bugatti Chiron, which costs about $2.3 million and is equipped with a 16-cylinder, four-turbocharger engine, can go zero to 60 in about 2.3 seconds.\nElectric motors have better torque at zero revolutions a minute, giving drivers an incredible jolt from their initial acceleration.\nThe Plaid edition of the Model S won’t cost anywhere near as much as a Chiron, but it will still run buyers $120,000 or more. Prices like that mean the car won’t sell in the high volumes seen from the Tesla Model 3 or Model Y. Those cars can be had for what a nicely equipped sedan from BMW (BMW.Germany) or evenToyota Motor (TM) or Honda (HMC) can cost.\nStill, the launch highlights Tesla’s ability to update its designs. The first Model S went into production almost a decade ago. Its performance shows Tesla is improving on its technologies for battery management and electric motors.\nAll that is important for perceptions about Tesla, but there are bigger things on investors’ minds. Tesla is building new capacity in Austin, Texas, andBerlin. Investors want to see both plants on line by the end of the year, giving Tesla the output capacity needed to increase sales.\nInvestors also want updates about the company’s autonomous driving programs. Musk has boasted the company is close to achieving fully autonomous cars with newer versions of its self-driving software. The new versions probably won’t mean drivers can actually leave the driver seat, but better driver-assistance functions are a competitive advantage for auto makers.\nThe next version of the Tesla software is due to roll out in coming weeks.\nCapacity and autonomous driving have the potential to lift the stock in coming years. The Model S Plaid can help it in coming quarters.\nTesla stock is in need of a lift. Shares are down about 35% from their 52-week high of more than $900, reached in January.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115297171,"gmtCreate":1622995300593,"gmtModify":1631885044855,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news","listText":"Good news","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115297171","repostId":"1156802172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112286637,"gmtCreate":1622874113629,"gmtModify":1631884325713,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope itcan really reach $100","listText":"Hope itcan really reach $100","text":"Hope itcan really reach $100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112286637","repostId":"1148130971","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li>  <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li>  <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来汽车的股价在过去一年中飙升了 816% 以上，在 3 月初成长型股票抛售之前，于 2 月初达到近 62 美元的峰值。</li><li>公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪不断增长，预计将提升公司估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来汽车的股价到 2025 年将飙升至 160 美元以上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images 新闻来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来，它已经在电动汽车领域的狂热投资者中获得了极大的国际关注。自蔚来在 2018 年年中首次交付以来，只有短短三年时间，但许多人已经在猜测其股价能否达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的交易价格超过每股 600 美元，市值超过 6000 亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来在 2025 年之前有潜力突破每股 100 美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近 60 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，该公司的上涨潜力超过 35%。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今已在华销售和交付超过10万辆汽车。该公司拥有五款零排放、全电池供电的车型，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸 SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将其全球扩张计划变为现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到 100 美元不再是 “是否 ”的问题，而是 “何时 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新技术的开拓者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池更换技术 “Power Swap ”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车通常行驶里程有限的问题。类似于加油站，Power Swap是一种电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池可使蔚来汽车行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车181英里平均行驶里程的两倍多。蔚来车主可选择订阅「电池即服务」（「BaaS」）套餐，这是一项按月订阅服务，可根据个人需求为蔚来车主提供灵活的电池升级选择。该公司目前提供标准的 75 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 310 英里；以及增强型 100 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 435 英里；在BaaS下，两者都可供蔚来所有者按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个换电站，随着蔚来和中石化最近签署战略合作伙伴协议，更多的换电站正在建设中。蔚来的汽车还兼容本地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国 164 个城市的 1140 个汽车充电站，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.</p><p><blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以便在更广泛的电动汽车和科技领域保持竞争力。蔚来自2016年以来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，2018年在北京公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对客运未来的承诺也体现在他们开发的 EVE 上，这是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的 NOMI AI（全球首个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步推进其在自动驾驶技术方面的进展，蔚来最近与英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司 Mobileye 合作，开发不需要人工交互的驾驶自动化（即 “4 级 ”自动驾驶）并将其商业化。他们的合作有望加速蔚来推出 “自动驾驶即服务 ”（ADaaS）套餐，该套餐是其自动驾驶技术 “蔚来自动驾驶 ”（NAD）的月度订阅。然而，与特斯拉的 “全自动驾驶 ”套件类似，预计将于 2022 年推出的 NAD 技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实将蔚来推向了与行业领导者特斯拉不相上下的位置。蔚来用户可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。目前上路的蔚来汽车超过 102,000 辆，新的订阅套餐预计将带来 8.4 亿元人民币（1.32 亿美元）的增量年销售额；假设大多数现有蔚来车主都注册了这项服务，那么在这项服务推出时，额外的收入来源估计约为 100 亿元人民币（16 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的持续发展有望在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求量最大的细分市场之一，估计价值达1.6万亿美元。如果占据该市场 6% 的份额，蔚来现有 670 亿美元的市值将至少增加 1000 亿美元，使其每股价值超过 100 美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的纯电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占领上述6%以上的市场份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股价格超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将达到约 300,000 辆，总收入将达到约 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\"><span>Source: ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破 100 美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直透露其全球扩张的意图，尤其是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设其首个海外销售和服务中心。2022 年，该品牌在挪威的足迹将进一步扩大，蔚来将在卑尔根、斯塔万格、特隆赫姆和克里斯蒂安桑开设四家门店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将为欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为蔚来的新车主提供该品牌赖以取得成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰 SUV ES8 目前的起售价约为 6.7 万美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，随后该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车 ET7 将于 2022 年推出。</blockquote></p><p> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在中国豪华电动汽车市场拥有良好的销售记录，其规格可与全球知名的特斯拉相媲美，因此没有理由不在海外取得成功。如前所述，蔚来车辆充满电后的续航里程可达 435 英里，对于那些正在寻找可靠伴侣陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行的欧美潜在车主来说，这是一个理想的选择。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的偏好相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Historical Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的历史表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.</p><p><blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销售仍在继续，但由于流动性问题，蔚来的股价还是创下了不到 2 美元的历史新低。2020 年年中，中国合肥市政府出手相救，注资 70 亿元人民币（约合 10 亿美元）。该安排导致“蔚来中国”成立，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来中国 90.36% 的股权，“合肥战略投资者”财团持有剩余 9.64% 的股权。这种合作关系成为公司的生命线；额外的资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显著改善，这反映在公司强劲的财务业绩和 2020 年夏季股价的上升趋势上。到 2020 年第二季度末，蔚来的股价平均反弹了近 20%，总收入环比增长了 171%。该公司股价在 2020 年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均达到 15.40 美元，并继续攀升至第四季度的平均水平 38.70 美元。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为 50.97 美元，2 月份达到近 62 美元的峰值，是其 2018 年 IPO 价格的 10 倍多。如今，该公司的市值超过 670 亿美元，超过了在纽约证券交易所首次亮相时的 10 亿美元市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.</p><p><blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在 2 月底成长型股票抛售之前达到顶峰以来，蔚来的基本面也一直在稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级加速，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，占2020年总交付量的近50%。该公司继续展现出光明的前景，4 月份交付了超过 7,100 辆汽车，同比增长超过 125%。蔚来在2021年第一季度还保持了经营活动的正现金流，这得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，使其毛利率提高到19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者相当第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将接近 300,000 辆，相当于总收入约为 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）（每股 18.60 美元）。近期与合营企业「江淮汽车集团」（「江淮汽车集团」）重续的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的整车销售预测，该协议将目前的年产能由100,000辆增加至240,000辆；目前正在合肥兴建的「NeoPark」预计年产能将增加100万台，进一步支持我们对蔚来继续致力于发展业务的积极前景。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为 16.43 倍，年收入约为 420 亿美元（第一季度收入年化为 103.89 亿美元），同样的比例应用于蔚来预测的 2025 财年总收入，预计市盈率将达到 8.7 倍，股价将超过 160 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO vs. LI and XPEV</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来与李和 XPEV</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Finviz</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finviz</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与国内同行进行了比较，以确定蔚来股价超过 100 美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于李和XPEV，前者的交易倍数应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到 18.1 倍（XPEV 的中点），也将推动该公司目前的股价升至 51.50 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，这意味着 22% 的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来 2025 财年收入的预测为 1400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元），即每股 18.60 美元，即使是 18.1 倍的一半也足以让蔚来的股价在 2025 年突破 160 美元；我们相信，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为运营现金和届时实现的技术进步将使他们在电动汽车行业走上持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到 2030 年及以后品牌的 4 级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于蔚来的文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB检查要求；否则，上述公司审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前正在接受普华永道中天会计师事务所（PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP）的审计，该事务所已被列入 PCAOB 的拒绝准入名单。如果中国当局和 PCAOB 不能尽快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会对投资者起到威慑作用，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是全球芯片供应持续短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的各项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距正在扩大。蔚来也不例外，受到持续芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，正如他们逐月增加的交付数量所证明的那样；在蔚来最新发布的 4 月份交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了 7100 多辆汽车，同比增长 125%。</blockquote></p><p> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车领域的竞争也愈演愈烈。由于对气候变化的担忧日益加剧，加上传统汽油动力汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度在过去十年中发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的准入门槛也显着降低；新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，因为初始投资变得比 2003 年特斯拉更加合理，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并在汽车行业保持竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期取得成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（在此进一步分析）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌形象，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合他们在生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略方面的成熟能力，蔚来正在有效地缩小他们与特斯拉在全球范围内电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是这家电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，而蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价上，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，它们是一个值得选择的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 12:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li>  <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li>  <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来汽车的股价在过去一年中飙升了 816% 以上，在 3 月初成长型股票抛售之前，于 2 月初达到近 62 美元的峰值。</li><li>公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪不断增长，预计将提升公司估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来汽车的股价到 2025 年将飙升至 160 美元以上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images 新闻来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来，它已经在电动汽车领域的狂热投资者中获得了极大的国际关注。自蔚来在 2018 年年中首次交付以来，只有短短三年时间，但许多人已经在猜测其股价能否达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的交易价格超过每股 600 美元，市值超过 6000 亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来在 2025 年之前有潜力突破每股 100 美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近 60 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，该公司的上涨潜力超过 35%。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今已在华销售和交付超过10万辆汽车。该公司拥有五款零排放、全电池供电的车型，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸 SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将其全球扩张计划变为现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到 100 美元不再是 “是否 ”的问题，而是 “何时 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新技术的开拓者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池更换技术 “Power Swap ”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车通常行驶里程有限的问题。类似于加油站，Power Swap是一种电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池可使蔚来汽车行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车181英里平均行驶里程的两倍多。蔚来车主可选择订阅「电池即服务」（「BaaS」）套餐，这是一项按月订阅服务，可根据个人需求为蔚来车主提供灵活的电池升级选择。该公司目前提供标准的 75 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 310 英里；以及增强型 100 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 435 英里；在BaaS下，两者都可供蔚来所有者按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个换电站，随着蔚来和中石化最近签署战略合作伙伴协议，更多的换电站正在建设中。蔚来的汽车还兼容本地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国 164 个城市的 1140 个汽车充电站，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.</p><p><blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以便在更广泛的电动汽车和科技领域保持竞争力。蔚来自2016年以来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，2018年在北京公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对客运未来的承诺也体现在他们开发的 EVE 上，这是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的 NOMI AI（全球首个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步推进其在自动驾驶技术方面的进展，蔚来最近与英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司 Mobileye 合作，开发不需要人工交互的驾驶自动化（即 “4 级 ”自动驾驶）并将其商业化。他们的合作有望加速蔚来推出 “自动驾驶即服务 ”（ADaaS）套餐，该套餐是其自动驾驶技术 “蔚来自动驾驶 ”（NAD）的月度订阅。然而，与特斯拉的 “全自动驾驶 ”套件类似，预计将于 2022 年推出的 NAD 技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实将蔚来推向了与行业领导者特斯拉不相上下的位置。蔚来用户可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。目前上路的蔚来汽车超过 102,000 辆，新的订阅套餐预计将带来 8.4 亿元人民币（1.32 亿美元）的增量年销售额；假设大多数现有蔚来车主都注册了这项服务，那么在这项服务推出时，额外的收入来源估计约为 100 亿元人民币（16 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的持续发展有望在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求量最大的细分市场之一，估计价值达1.6万亿美元。如果占据该市场 6% 的份额，蔚来现有 670 亿美元的市值将至少增加 1000 亿美元，使其每股价值超过 100 美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的纯电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占领上述6%以上的市场份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股价格超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将达到约 300,000 辆，总收入将达到约 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\"><span>Source: ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破 100 美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直透露其全球扩张的意图，尤其是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设其首个海外销售和服务中心。2022 年，该品牌在挪威的足迹将进一步扩大，蔚来将在卑尔根、斯塔万格、特隆赫姆和克里斯蒂安桑开设四家门店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将为欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为蔚来的新车主提供该品牌赖以取得成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰 SUV ES8 目前的起售价约为 6.7 万美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，随后该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车 ET7 将于 2022 年推出。</blockquote></p><p> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在中国豪华电动汽车市场拥有良好的销售记录，其规格可与全球知名的特斯拉相媲美，因此没有理由不在海外取得成功。如前所述，蔚来车辆充满电后的续航里程可达 435 英里，对于那些正在寻找可靠伴侣陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行的欧美潜在车主来说，这是一个理想的选择。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的偏好相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Historical Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的历史表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.</p><p><blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销售仍在继续，但由于流动性问题，蔚来的股价还是创下了不到 2 美元的历史新低。2020 年年中，中国合肥市政府出手相救，注资 70 亿元人民币（约合 10 亿美元）。该安排导致“蔚来中国”成立，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来中国 90.36% 的股权，“合肥战略投资者”财团持有剩余 9.64% 的股权。这种合作关系成为公司的生命线；额外的资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显著改善，这反映在公司强劲的财务业绩和 2020 年夏季股价的上升趋势上。到 2020 年第二季度末，蔚来的股价平均反弹了近 20%，总收入环比增长了 171%。该公司股价在 2020 年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均达到 15.40 美元，并继续攀升至第四季度的平均水平 38.70 美元。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为 50.97 美元，2 月份达到近 62 美元的峰值，是其 2018 年 IPO 价格的 10 倍多。如今，该公司的市值超过 670 亿美元，超过了在纽约证券交易所首次亮相时的 10 亿美元市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.</p><p><blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在 2 月底成长型股票抛售之前达到顶峰以来，蔚来的基本面也一直在稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级加速，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，占2020年总交付量的近50%。该公司继续展现出光明的前景，4 月份交付了超过 7,100 辆汽车，同比增长超过 125%。蔚来在2021年第一季度还保持了经营活动的正现金流，这得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，使其毛利率提高到19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者相当第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将接近 300,000 辆，相当于总收入约为 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）（每股 18.60 美元）。近期与合营企业「江淮汽车集团」（「江淮汽车集团」）重续的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的整车销售预测，该协议将目前的年产能由100,000辆增加至240,000辆；目前正在合肥兴建的「NeoPark」预计年产能将增加100万台，进一步支持我们对蔚来继续致力于发展业务的积极前景。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为 16.43 倍，年收入约为 420 亿美元（第一季度收入年化为 103.89 亿美元），同样的比例应用于蔚来预测的 2025 财年总收入，预计市盈率将达到 8.7 倍，股价将超过 160 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO vs. LI and XPEV</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来与李和 XPEV</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Finviz</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finviz</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与国内同行进行了比较，以确定蔚来股价超过 100 美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于李和XPEV，前者的交易倍数应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到 18.1 倍（XPEV 的中点），也将推动该公司目前的股价升至 51.50 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，这意味着 22% 的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来 2025 财年收入的预测为 1400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元），即每股 18.60 美元，即使是 18.1 倍的一半也足以让蔚来的股价在 2025 年突破 160 美元；我们相信，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为运营现金和届时实现的技术进步将使他们在电动汽车行业走上持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到 2030 年及以后品牌的 4 级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于蔚来的文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB检查要求；否则，上述公司审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前正在接受普华永道中天会计师事务所（PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP）的审计，该事务所已被列入 PCAOB 的拒绝准入名单。如果中国当局和 PCAOB 不能尽快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会对投资者起到威慑作用，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是全球芯片供应持续短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的各项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距正在扩大。蔚来也不例外，受到持续芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，正如他们逐月增加的交付数量所证明的那样；在蔚来最新发布的 4 月份交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了 7100 多辆汽车，同比增长 125%。</blockquote></p><p> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车领域的竞争也愈演愈烈。由于对气候变化的担忧日益加剧，加上传统汽油动力汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度在过去十年中发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的准入门槛也显着降低；新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，因为初始投资变得比 2003 年特斯拉更加合理，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并在汽车行业保持竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期取得成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（在此进一步分析）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌形象，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合他们在生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略方面的成熟能力，蔚来正在有效地缩小他们与特斯拉在全球范围内电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是这家电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，而蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价上，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，它们是一个值得选择的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":692496021,"gmtCreate":1641131348181,"gmtModify":1641131348292,"author":{"id":"3574910578498482","authorId":"3574910578498482","name":"kaikk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574910578498482","authorIdStr":"3574910578498482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692496021","repostId":"2200444738","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}