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2021-06-16

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Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>

2021-06-21

Ok

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2021-06-16

👌

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2021-06-23

Like

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2021-06-23

Sure

Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

2021-06-21

👍

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2021-06-19

Wow

3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>

2021-06-22

Ha ha

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2021-06-22

It will

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2021-06-21

😂

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19:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特辞去盖茨基金会董事会职务</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115142051","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since ","content":"<p>In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since he and his now ex-wife Melinda Gates disclosed their divorce plans, financier Warren Buffett has resigned as a trustee of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Buffett's position on the board was a major PR coup for the foundation, which is one of the world's biggest charitable enterprises.</p><p><blockquote>金融家沃伦·巴菲特辞去了比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人的职务，这是自比尔·盖茨和他现在的前妻梅琳达·盖茨披露离婚计划以来的几周内公众舆论如何反对比尔·盖茨的另一个潜在指标。巴菲特在董事会的职位对于该基金会来说是一次重大的公关妙招，该基金会是世界上最大的慈善企业之一。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad33e43f59ee4df358ff3db98d9cfd5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\">Buffett, now 90, announced his decision to step down from the Gates Foundation board in a statement that also announced he had reached the halfway point in giving his Berkshire Hathaway shares to charity. Buffett gave away another $4.1 billion in Berkshire shares to give foundations.</p><p><blockquote>现年90岁的巴菲特在一份声明中宣布了辞去盖茨基金会董事会职务的决定，同时宣布他将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票捐赠给慈善机构的计划已完成一半。巴菲特又向基金会捐赠了41亿美元的伯克希尔股票。</blockquote></p><p> Ina statementshared with CNBC, Buffett said he was resigning from the Gates Foundation board \"just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire's\".</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在与CNBC分享的一份声明中表示，他将辞去盖茨基金会董事会的职务，“就像我在除伯克希尔以外的所有公司董事会所做的那样”。</blockquote></p><p>   \"For years I have been a trustee – an inactive trustee at that – of only one recipient of my funds, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. I am now resigning from that post, just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire’s,\" Buffett said in a statement. \"The CEO of BMG is Mark Suzman, an outstanding recent selection who has my full support. My goals are 100% in sync with those of the foundation, and my physical participation is in no way needed to achieve these goals.\"  While it's true that Buffett has slowly been pulling back from his non-Berkshire activities for years now, the timing of his departure from the Gates Foundation board is certainly curious. As Buffett himself concedes, he was an \"inactive\" member of the board. The board includes two other members, Bill and Melinda. Maybe Buffett simply couldn't stomach the awkwardness at board meetings.</p><p><blockquote>“多年来，我一直是我的资金的唯一接受者，比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会的受托人——一个不活跃的受托人。我现在辞去该职位，就像我在除伯克希尔以外的所有公司董事会所做的那样”，巴菲特在一份声明中表示。“BMG的首席执行官是马克·苏斯曼，他是一位杰出的近期人选，得到了我的全力支持。我的目标与基金会的目标100%同步，实现这些目标根本不需要我的身体参与。”虽然巴菲特多年来确实一直在慢慢退出伯克希尔的非活动，但他离开盖茨基金会董事会的时机确实很奇怪。正如巴菲特自己承认的那样，他是董事会中“不活跃”的成员。董事会包括另外两名成员，比尔和梅林达。也许巴菲特只是无法忍受董事会会议上的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Melinda Gates reportedly divorced her husband over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, something that Buffett has been mum about - though Warren Buffett was never tied to Epstein like many other titans of American business and finance have been.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，梅琳达·盖茨因丈夫与杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的友谊而与丈夫离婚，巴菲特对此一直保持沉默——尽管沃伦·巴菲特从未像许多其他美国商业和金融巨头那样与爱泼斯坦有联系。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett has contributed $27 billion to the Gates Foundation over the past 15 years. Mark Suzman, the foundation’s chief executive officer, told employees last month that he was in talks to strengthen \"the long-term sustainability and stability of the foundation.\"</p><p><blockquote>过去15年，巴菲特向盖茨基金会捐赠了270亿美元。该基金会首席执行官马克·苏斯曼上个月告诉员工，他正在进行谈判，以加强“基金会的长期可持续性和稳定性”。</blockquote></p><p> Suzman \"is an outstanding recent selection who has my full support,\" Buffett said. Suzman has insisted that both Bill and Melinda remain committed to the Foundation even after their divorce.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特表示，苏兹曼“是最近的杰出人选，得到了我的全力支持”。苏兹曼坚持认为，即使在离婚后，比尔和梅林达仍然致力于基金会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特辞去盖茨基金会董事会职务</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特辞去盖茨基金会董事会职务</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 19:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since he and his now ex-wife Melinda Gates disclosed their divorce plans, financier Warren Buffett has resigned as a trustee of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Buffett's position on the board was a major PR coup for the foundation, which is one of the world's biggest charitable enterprises.</p><p><blockquote>金融家沃伦·巴菲特辞去了比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人的职务，这是自比尔·盖茨和他现在的前妻梅琳达·盖茨披露离婚计划以来的几周内公众舆论如何反对比尔·盖茨的另一个潜在指标。巴菲特在董事会的职位对于该基金会来说是一次重大的公关妙招，该基金会是世界上最大的慈善企业之一。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad33e43f59ee4df358ff3db98d9cfd5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\">Buffett, now 90, announced his decision to step down from the Gates Foundation board in a statement that also announced he had reached the halfway point in giving his Berkshire Hathaway shares to charity. Buffett gave away another $4.1 billion in Berkshire shares to give foundations.</p><p><blockquote>现年90岁的巴菲特在一份声明中宣布了辞去盖茨基金会董事会职务的决定，同时宣布他将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票捐赠给慈善机构的计划已完成一半。巴菲特又向基金会捐赠了41亿美元的伯克希尔股票。</blockquote></p><p> Ina statementshared with CNBC, Buffett said he was resigning from the Gates Foundation board \"just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire's\".</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在与CNBC分享的一份声明中表示，他将辞去盖茨基金会董事会的职务，“就像我在除伯克希尔以外的所有公司董事会所做的那样”。</blockquote></p><p>   \"For years I have been a trustee – an inactive trustee at that – of only one recipient of my funds, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. I am now resigning from that post, just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire’s,\" Buffett said in a statement. \"The CEO of BMG is Mark Suzman, an outstanding recent selection who has my full support. My goals are 100% in sync with those of the foundation, and my physical participation is in no way needed to achieve these goals.\"  While it's true that Buffett has slowly been pulling back from his non-Berkshire activities for years now, the timing of his departure from the Gates Foundation board is certainly curious. As Buffett himself concedes, he was an \"inactive\" member of the board. The board includes two other members, Bill and Melinda. Maybe Buffett simply couldn't stomach the awkwardness at board meetings.</p><p><blockquote>“多年来，我一直是我的资金的唯一接受者，比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会的受托人——一个不活跃的受托人。我现在辞去该职位，就像我在除伯克希尔以外的所有公司董事会所做的那样”，巴菲特在一份声明中表示。“BMG的首席执行官是马克·苏斯曼，他是一位杰出的近期人选，得到了我的全力支持。我的目标与基金会的目标100%同步，实现这些目标根本不需要我的身体参与。”虽然巴菲特多年来确实一直在慢慢退出伯克希尔的非活动，但他离开盖茨基金会董事会的时机确实很奇怪。正如巴菲特自己承认的那样，他是董事会中“不活跃”的成员。董事会包括另外两名成员，比尔和梅林达。也许巴菲特只是无法忍受董事会会议上的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Melinda Gates reportedly divorced her husband over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, something that Buffett has been mum about - though Warren Buffett was never tied to Epstein like many other titans of American business and finance have been.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，梅琳达·盖茨因丈夫与杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的友谊而与丈夫离婚，巴菲特对此一直保持沉默——尽管沃伦·巴菲特从未像许多其他美国商业和金融巨头那样与爱泼斯坦有联系。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett has contributed $27 billion to the Gates Foundation over the past 15 years. Mark Suzman, the foundation’s chief executive officer, told employees last month that he was in talks to strengthen \"the long-term sustainability and stability of the foundation.\"</p><p><blockquote>过去15年，巴菲特向盖茨基金会捐赠了270亿美元。该基金会首席执行官马克·苏斯曼上个月告诉员工，他正在进行谈判，以加强“基金会的长期可持续性和稳定性”。</blockquote></p><p> Suzman \"is an outstanding recent selection who has my full support,\" Buffett said. Suzman has insisted that both Bill and Melinda remain committed to the Foundation even after their divorce.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特表示，苏兹曼“是最近的杰出人选，得到了我的全力支持”。苏兹曼坚持认为，即使在离婚后，比尔和梅林达仍然致力于基金会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-resigns-gates-foundation-board?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-resigns-gates-foundation-board?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115142051","content_text":"In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since he and his now ex-wife Melinda Gates disclosed their divorce plans, financier Warren Buffett has resigned as a trustee of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Buffett's position on the board was a major PR coup for the foundation, which is one of the world's biggest charitable enterprises.\nBuffett, now 90, announced his decision to step down from the Gates Foundation board in a statement that also announced he had reached the halfway point in giving his Berkshire Hathaway shares to charity. Buffett gave away another $4.1 billion in Berkshire shares to give foundations.\nIna statementshared with CNBC, Buffett said he was resigning from the Gates Foundation board \"just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire's\".\n\n \"For years I have been a trustee – an inactive trustee at that – of only one recipient of my funds, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. I am now resigning from that post, just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire’s,\" Buffett said in a statement. \"The CEO of BMG is Mark Suzman, an outstanding recent selection who has my full support. My goals are 100% in sync with those of the foundation, and my physical participation is in no way needed to achieve these goals.\"\n\nWhile it's true that Buffett has slowly been pulling back from his non-Berkshire activities for years now, the timing of his departure from the Gates Foundation board is certainly curious. As Buffett himself concedes, he was an \"inactive\" member of the board. The board includes two other members, Bill and Melinda. Maybe Buffett simply couldn't stomach the awkwardness at board meetings.\nMelinda Gates reportedly divorced her husband over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, something that Buffett has been mum about - though Warren Buffett was never tied to Epstein like many other titans of American business and finance have been.\nBuffett has contributed $27 billion to the Gates Foundation over the past 15 years. Mark Suzman, the foundation’s chief executive officer, told employees last month that he was in talks to strengthen \"the long-term sustainability and stability of the foundation.\"\nSuzman \"is an outstanding recent selection who has my full support,\" Buffett said. Suzman has insisted that both Bill and Melinda remain committed to the Foundation even after their divorce.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121315683,"gmtCreate":1624453711742,"gmtModify":1634005953584,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574855965218634","idStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bitcoin&nbsp;","listText":"Bitcoin&nbsp;","text":"Bitcoin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121315683","repostId":"1174672721","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121312287,"gmtCreate":1624453692249,"gmtModify":1634005953949,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574855965218634","idStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bitcoin&nbsp;","listText":"Bitcoin&nbsp;","text":"Bitcoin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121312287","repostId":"1121798334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121316707,"gmtCreate":1624453661309,"gmtModify":1634005954680,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574855965218634","idStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121316707","repostId":"2145283099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121316344,"gmtCreate":1624453635888,"gmtModify":1634005955267,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574855965218634","idStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121316344","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121319524,"gmtCreate":1624453520368,"gmtModify":1634005957011,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574855965218634","idStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sure&nbsp;","listText":"Sure&nbsp;","text":"Sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121319524","repostId":"1146629706","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146629706","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624449285,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146629706?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146629706","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stock futures are bouncing between small gains and losses, indicating a quiet opening.\nBitcoin, ethe","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures are bouncing between small gains and losses, indicating a quiet opening.</li>  <li>Bitcoin, ethereum and other crypto currenciesrose Wednesday after a tumultous few daysof trading. The SEC meanwhile,delayed a decision about allowing bitcoin ETFs.</li>  <li>Crude prices hit multiyear highs on economic rebound hopes,with signs pointing to a stronger rebound in the U.S.than the rest of the world.</li>  <li>Torchlight Energy, a hot stock among the Reddit crowd, tumbled premarket, extending a 29% drop the day before.</li>  <li>GlaxoSmithKline, MicroStrategy, Shake Shack &amp; more made the biggest moves.</li> </ul> (June 23)&nbsp;U.S. equity futures were steady, while stocks were mixed Wednesday as investors assessed prospects for an economic recovery and continued policy support.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股指期货在小幅上涨和下跌之间反弹，表明开盘平静。</li><li>经过几天的动荡交易后，比特币、以太币和其他加密货币周三上涨。与此同时，美国证券交易委员会推迟了允许比特币ETF的决定。</li><li>由于经济反弹的希望，原油价格触及多年高点，有迹象表明美国的反弹力度强于世界其他地区。</li><li>Reddit人群中的热门股票Torchlight Energy盘前暴跌，延续前一天29%的跌幅。</li><li>葛兰素史克、MicroStrategy、Shake Shack等公司动作最大。</li></ul>（6月23日）美国。周三，由于投资者评估经济复苏和持续政策支持的前景，股指期货稳定，而股市涨跌互现。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:59AM ET the Dow futures contract was up just 17 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 futures traded 0.25 points, or 0.01%, lower, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 4.25&nbsp;points, or 0.03%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午7:59，道指期货合约仅上涨17点，即0.05%，标普500期货下跌0.25点，即0.01%，纳斯达克100期货上涨4.25点，即0.03%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e352cd119b936c2cd0b2e789eff1776a\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Contracts on all three U.S. equity benchmarks were little changed, after two days of gains for the S&amp;P 500 Index. European equities fell despite better-than-forecast outputdata, after high-flying sectors such as luxury-goods makersslidon analyst downgrades. Asian equities advanced.</p><p><blockquote>在标普500指数连续两天上涨后，所有三个美国股市基准的合约几乎没有变化。尽管产出数据好于预期，但在奢侈品制造商等高速发展的行业被分析师下调评级后，欧洲股市仍下跌。亚洲股市上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Oil climbed above $73 a barrel after data signaling another decline in U.S. crude stockpiles added to a bullish outlook.</p><p><blockquote>数据显示美国原油库存再次下降，增加了看涨前景，油价攀升至每桶73美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/292b831ab7a8ddca43fdc5432203af34\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Markets are steadying this week after last week’s volatility spurred by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt at its meeting. Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday said the central bank would be patient in waiting to lift borrowing costs, andreiteratedthat while price increases are bigger than expected, they will likely wane.</p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储在会议上的鹰派倾向引发的波动之后，市场本周趋于稳定。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二表示，央行将耐心等待提高借贷成本，并重申，虽然物价涨幅大于预期，但可能会减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s shift last week to acknowledge higher inflation and pull forward its rate hike projections is “a reflection of more positive longer-term dynamics,” BlackRock Investment Institute strategists led by Jean Boivin wrote in a report. “We believe the Fed’s new outlook will not translate into significantly higher policy rates any time soon. This, combined with the powerful restart, underpins our pro-risk stance.”</p><p><blockquote>以Jean Boivin为首的贝莱德投资研究所策略师在一份报告中写道，美联储上周转向承认通胀上升并提前加息预测，“反映了更积极的长期动态”。“我们认为，美联储的新前景不会很快转化为大幅提高的政策利率。这一点，再加上强有力的重启，支撑了我们的亲风险立场。”</blockquote></p><p> Elsewhere, commodities including copper and iron ore climbed.Bitcoinrebounded, rising past $30,000.</p><p><blockquote>其他方面，铜和铁矿石等大宗商品上涨。比特币反弹，升至30,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: GlaxoSmithKline, MicroStrategy, Shake Shack &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：葛兰素史克、MicroStrategy、Shake Shack等</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;GlaxoSmithKline(GSK) </b>– The drugmaker’s stock rose 3.5% in the premarket after it detailed plans to spin out its consumer health-care business into a separate company. Glaxo will eventually receive an $11 billion payment from the new company.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）葛兰素史克（GSK）</b>-该制药商详细计划将其消费者医疗保健业务分拆为一家独立公司后，其股价在盘前上涨3.5%。葛兰素史克最终将从新公司获得110亿美元的付款。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;MicroStrategy(MSTR)</b> – MicroStrategy rallied 4.4% in premarket trading, trading in sync with the price of bitcoin. The business analytics company holds several billion dollars worth of bitcoin and took advantage of the recent price drop to buy more.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）MicroStrategy（MSTR）</b>-MicroStrategy在盘前交易中上涨4.4%，与比特币的价格同步。这家商业分析公司持有价值数十亿美元的比特币，并利用最近价格下跌的机会购买了更多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Shake Shack(SHAK) </b>– Shake Shack announced an expansion of its footprint in China, where it currently has 16 restaurants. It will open 10 restaurants in new territories by 2031, and plans to have a total of 79 China locations by that time. Shake Shack gained 1.5% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）摇摇小屋（SHAK）</b>-Shake Shack宣布扩大其在中国的足迹，目前在中国拥有16家餐厅。它将于2031年前在新界开设10家餐厅，并计划届时在中国的分店总数为79家。Shake Shack在盘前上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Winnebago(WGO) </b>– The recreational vehicle maker reported quarterly earnings of $2.16 per share, well above the consensus estimate of $1.77 a share. Revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts by doubling to record levels. Sales of towable products nearly tripled from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）温尼贝戈（WGO）</b>-这家休闲车制造商公布的季度收益为每股2.16美元，远高于每股1.77美元的普遍预期。收入也超出了华尔街的预期，翻了一番，达到创纪录的水平。可牵引产品的销量同比增长近两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Microsoft(MSFT) </b>– Microsoft became the second company to surpass a $2 trillion market value, achieving that mark during Tuesday’s session.Apple(AAPL), currently worth $2.2 trillion, was the first.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）微软（MSFT）</b>–微软成为第二家市值突破2万亿美元的公司，并在周二的交易中实现了这一大关。目前市值2.2万亿美元的苹果(AAPL)是第一家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Carrier Global(CARR)</b> – Carrier shares rose 1.9% in the premarket after the stock was rated “buy” in new coverage at Deutsche Bank. The industrial equipment maker is poised to benefit from its exposure to non-residential construction as well as an increasing emphasis on indoor air quality, according to Deutsche Bank.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)Carrier Global(CARR)</b>-在德意志银行的新报道中，开利股价被评为“买入”后，该股盘前上涨1.9%。德意志银行表示，这家工业设备制造商将受益于其对非住宅建筑的投资以及对室内空气质量的日益重视。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Amazon.com(AMZN) </b>– Amazon will bethe target of a nationwide unionization effortby the Teamsters Union, which accuses the retail giant of mistreating warehouse and logistics workers. The effort was announced in a resolution presented at the union’s international convention.</p><p><blockquote><b>7)亚马逊。com(AMZN)</b>-亚马逊将成为卡车司机工会在全国范围内成立工会的目标，该工会指责这家零售巨头虐待仓库和物流工人。这项努力是在联盟国际大会上提交的一项决议中宣布的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Intel(INTC)</b> – The semiconductor maker is creating two new business units, one that will focus on software and the other on high-performance computing and graphics.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）英特尔（INTC）</b>-这家半导体制造商正在创建两个新的业务部门，一个专注于软件，另一个专注于高性能计算和图形。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL)</b> – Alphabet’s Google unit will soon face a lawsuit by a number of state attorneys general, according to a Reuters report. The suit – which could be filed as soon as next week – will accuse the company’s Google Play app store of violating antitrust law.</p><p><blockquote><b>9）Alphabet（GOOGL）</b>——据路透社报道，Alphabet的谷歌部门很快将面临多位州总检察长的诉讼。该诉讼最早可能于下周提起，将指控该公司的Google Play应用商店违反反垄断法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Xpeng(XPEV) </b>– Xpeng received permission from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering there, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that the China-based electric car maker is planning to raise up to $2 billion with that offering. Xpeng is already listed in the U.S. with a market value of more than $30 billion. Xpeng jumped 3.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>10）小鹏汽车（XPEV）</b>-小鹏汽车获得香港联交所首次公开募股的许可，据《华尔街日报》报道，这家中国电动汽车制造商计划通过此次发行筹集至多20亿美元。小鹏汽车已经在美国上市，市值超过300亿美元。小鹏汽车盘前上涨3.8%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 19:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures are bouncing between small gains and losses, indicating a quiet opening.</li>  <li>Bitcoin, ethereum and other crypto currenciesrose Wednesday after a tumultous few daysof trading. The SEC meanwhile,delayed a decision about allowing bitcoin ETFs.</li>  <li>Crude prices hit multiyear highs on economic rebound hopes,with signs pointing to a stronger rebound in the U.S.than the rest of the world.</li>  <li>Torchlight Energy, a hot stock among the Reddit crowd, tumbled premarket, extending a 29% drop the day before.</li>  <li>GlaxoSmithKline, MicroStrategy, Shake Shack &amp; more made the biggest moves.</li> </ul> (June 23)&nbsp;U.S. equity futures were steady, while stocks were mixed Wednesday as investors assessed prospects for an economic recovery and continued policy support.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股指期货在小幅上涨和下跌之间反弹，表明开盘平静。</li><li>经过几天的动荡交易后，比特币、以太币和其他加密货币周三上涨。与此同时，美国证券交易委员会推迟了允许比特币ETF的决定。</li><li>由于经济反弹的希望，原油价格触及多年高点，有迹象表明美国的反弹力度强于世界其他地区。</li><li>Reddit人群中的热门股票Torchlight Energy盘前暴跌，延续前一天29%的跌幅。</li><li>葛兰素史克、MicroStrategy、Shake Shack等公司动作最大。</li></ul>（6月23日）美国。周三，由于投资者评估经济复苏和持续政策支持的前景，股指期货稳定，而股市涨跌互现。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:59AM ET the Dow futures contract was up just 17 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 futures traded 0.25 points, or 0.01%, lower, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 4.25&nbsp;points, or 0.03%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午7:59，道指期货合约仅上涨17点，即0.05%，标普500期货下跌0.25点，即0.01%，纳斯达克100期货上涨4.25点，即0.03%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e352cd119b936c2cd0b2e789eff1776a\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Contracts on all three U.S. equity benchmarks were little changed, after two days of gains for the S&amp;P 500 Index. European equities fell despite better-than-forecast outputdata, after high-flying sectors such as luxury-goods makersslidon analyst downgrades. Asian equities advanced.</p><p><blockquote>在标普500指数连续两天上涨后，所有三个美国股市基准的合约几乎没有变化。尽管产出数据好于预期，但在奢侈品制造商等高速发展的行业被分析师下调评级后，欧洲股市仍下跌。亚洲股市上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Oil climbed above $73 a barrel after data signaling another decline in U.S. crude stockpiles added to a bullish outlook.</p><p><blockquote>数据显示美国原油库存再次下降，增加了看涨前景，油价攀升至每桶73美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/292b831ab7a8ddca43fdc5432203af34\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Markets are steadying this week after last week’s volatility spurred by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt at its meeting. Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday said the central bank would be patient in waiting to lift borrowing costs, andreiteratedthat while price increases are bigger than expected, they will likely wane.</p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储在会议上的鹰派倾向引发的波动之后，市场本周趋于稳定。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二表示，央行将耐心等待提高借贷成本，并重申，虽然物价涨幅大于预期，但可能会减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s shift last week to acknowledge higher inflation and pull forward its rate hike projections is “a reflection of more positive longer-term dynamics,” BlackRock Investment Institute strategists led by Jean Boivin wrote in a report. “We believe the Fed’s new outlook will not translate into significantly higher policy rates any time soon. This, combined with the powerful restart, underpins our pro-risk stance.”</p><p><blockquote>以Jean Boivin为首的贝莱德投资研究所策略师在一份报告中写道，美联储上周转向承认通胀上升并提前加息预测，“反映了更积极的长期动态”。“我们认为，美联储的新前景不会很快转化为大幅提高的政策利率。这一点，再加上强有力的重启，支撑了我们的亲风险立场。”</blockquote></p><p> Elsewhere, commodities including copper and iron ore climbed.Bitcoinrebounded, rising past $30,000.</p><p><blockquote>其他方面，铜和铁矿石等大宗商品上涨。比特币反弹，升至30,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: GlaxoSmithKline, MicroStrategy, Shake Shack &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：葛兰素史克、MicroStrategy、Shake Shack等</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;GlaxoSmithKline(GSK) </b>– The drugmaker’s stock rose 3.5% in the premarket after it detailed plans to spin out its consumer health-care business into a separate company. Glaxo will eventually receive an $11 billion payment from the new company.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）葛兰素史克（GSK）</b>-该制药商详细计划将其消费者医疗保健业务分拆为一家独立公司后，其股价在盘前上涨3.5%。葛兰素史克最终将从新公司获得110亿美元的付款。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;MicroStrategy(MSTR)</b> – MicroStrategy rallied 4.4% in premarket trading, trading in sync with the price of bitcoin. The business analytics company holds several billion dollars worth of bitcoin and took advantage of the recent price drop to buy more.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）MicroStrategy（MSTR）</b>-MicroStrategy在盘前交易中上涨4.4%，与比特币的价格同步。这家商业分析公司持有价值数十亿美元的比特币，并利用最近价格下跌的机会购买了更多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Shake Shack(SHAK) </b>– Shake Shack announced an expansion of its footprint in China, where it currently has 16 restaurants. It will open 10 restaurants in new territories by 2031, and plans to have a total of 79 China locations by that time. Shake Shack gained 1.5% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）摇摇小屋（SHAK）</b>-Shake Shack宣布扩大其在中国的足迹，目前在中国拥有16家餐厅。它将于2031年前在新界开设10家餐厅，并计划届时在中国的分店总数为79家。Shake Shack在盘前上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Winnebago(WGO) </b>– The recreational vehicle maker reported quarterly earnings of $2.16 per share, well above the consensus estimate of $1.77 a share. Revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts by doubling to record levels. Sales of towable products nearly tripled from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）温尼贝戈（WGO）</b>-这家休闲车制造商公布的季度收益为每股2.16美元，远高于每股1.77美元的普遍预期。收入也超出了华尔街的预期，翻了一番，达到创纪录的水平。可牵引产品的销量同比增长近两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Microsoft(MSFT) </b>– Microsoft became the second company to surpass a $2 trillion market value, achieving that mark during Tuesday’s session.Apple(AAPL), currently worth $2.2 trillion, was the first.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）微软（MSFT）</b>–微软成为第二家市值突破2万亿美元的公司，并在周二的交易中实现了这一大关。目前市值2.2万亿美元的苹果(AAPL)是第一家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Carrier Global(CARR)</b> – Carrier shares rose 1.9% in the premarket after the stock was rated “buy” in new coverage at Deutsche Bank. The industrial equipment maker is poised to benefit from its exposure to non-residential construction as well as an increasing emphasis on indoor air quality, according to Deutsche Bank.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)Carrier Global(CARR)</b>-在德意志银行的新报道中，开利股价被评为“买入”后，该股盘前上涨1.9%。德意志银行表示，这家工业设备制造商将受益于其对非住宅建筑的投资以及对室内空气质量的日益重视。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Amazon.com(AMZN) </b>– Amazon will bethe target of a nationwide unionization effortby the Teamsters Union, which accuses the retail giant of mistreating warehouse and logistics workers. The effort was announced in a resolution presented at the union’s international convention.</p><p><blockquote><b>7)亚马逊。com(AMZN)</b>-亚马逊将成为卡车司机工会在全国范围内成立工会的目标，该工会指责这家零售巨头虐待仓库和物流工人。这项努力是在联盟国际大会上提交的一项决议中宣布的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Intel(INTC)</b> – The semiconductor maker is creating two new business units, one that will focus on software and the other on high-performance computing and graphics.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）英特尔（INTC）</b>-这家半导体制造商正在创建两个新的业务部门，一个专注于软件，另一个专注于高性能计算和图形。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL)</b> – Alphabet’s Google unit will soon face a lawsuit by a number of state attorneys general, according to a Reuters report. The suit – which could be filed as soon as next week – will accuse the company’s Google Play app store of violating antitrust law.</p><p><blockquote><b>9）Alphabet（GOOGL）</b>——据路透社报道，Alphabet的谷歌部门很快将面临多位州总检察长的诉讼。该诉讼最早可能于下周提起，将指控该公司的Google Play应用商店违反反垄断法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Xpeng(XPEV) </b>– Xpeng received permission from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering there, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that the China-based electric car maker is planning to raise up to $2 billion with that offering. Xpeng is already listed in the U.S. with a market value of more than $30 billion. Xpeng jumped 3.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>10）小鹏汽车（XPEV）</b>-小鹏汽车获得香港联交所首次公开募股的许可，据《华尔街日报》报道，这家中国电动汽车制造商计划通过此次发行筹集至多20亿美元。小鹏汽车已经在美国上市，市值超过300亿美元。小鹏汽车盘前上涨3.8%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146629706","content_text":"Stock futures are bouncing between small gains and losses, indicating a quiet opening.\nBitcoin, ethereum and other crypto currenciesrose Wednesday after a tumultous few daysof trading. The SEC meanwhile,delayed a decision about allowing bitcoin ETFs.\nCrude prices hit multiyear highs on economic rebound hopes,with signs pointing to a stronger rebound in the U.S.than the rest of the world.\nTorchlight Energy, a hot stock among the Reddit crowd, tumbled premarket, extending a 29% drop the day before.\nGlaxoSmithKline, MicroStrategy, Shake Shack & more made the biggest moves.\n\n(June 23) U.S. equity futures were steady, while stocks were mixed Wednesday as investors assessed prospects for an economic recovery and continued policy support.\nAt 7:59AM ET the Dow futures contract was up just 17 points, or 0.05%, S&P 500 futures traded 0.25 points, or 0.01%, lower, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 4.25 points, or 0.03%.\n\nContracts on all three U.S. equity benchmarks were little changed, after two days of gains for the S&P 500 Index. European equities fell despite better-than-forecast outputdata, after high-flying sectors such as luxury-goods makersslidon analyst downgrades. Asian equities advanced.\nOil climbed above $73 a barrel after data signaling another decline in U.S. crude stockpiles added to a bullish outlook.\n\nMarkets are steadying this week after last week’s volatility spurred by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt at its meeting. Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday said the central bank would be patient in waiting to lift borrowing costs, andreiteratedthat while price increases are bigger than expected, they will likely wane.\nThe Fed’s shift last week to acknowledge higher inflation and pull forward its rate hike projections is “a reflection of more positive longer-term dynamics,” BlackRock Investment Institute strategists led by Jean Boivin wrote in a report. “We believe the Fed’s new outlook will not translate into significantly higher policy rates any time soon. This, combined with the powerful restart, underpins our pro-risk stance.”\nElsewhere, commodities including copper and iron ore climbed.Bitcoinrebounded, rising past $30,000.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: GlaxoSmithKline, MicroStrategy, Shake Shack & more\n1) GlaxoSmithKline(GSK) – The drugmaker’s stock rose 3.5% in the premarket after it detailed plans to spin out its consumer health-care business into a separate company. Glaxo will eventually receive an $11 billion payment from the new company.\n2) MicroStrategy(MSTR) – MicroStrategy rallied 4.4% in premarket trading, trading in sync with the price of bitcoin. The business analytics company holds several billion dollars worth of bitcoin and took advantage of the recent price drop to buy more.\n3) Shake Shack(SHAK) – Shake Shack announced an expansion of its footprint in China, where it currently has 16 restaurants. It will open 10 restaurants in new territories by 2031, and plans to have a total of 79 China locations by that time. Shake Shack gained 1.5% in premarket action.\n4) Winnebago(WGO) – The recreational vehicle maker reported quarterly earnings of $2.16 per share, well above the consensus estimate of $1.77 a share. Revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts by doubling to record levels. Sales of towable products nearly tripled from a year earlier.\n5) Microsoft(MSFT) – Microsoft became the second company to surpass a $2 trillion market value, achieving that mark during Tuesday’s session.Apple(AAPL), currently worth $2.2 trillion, was the first.\n6) Carrier Global(CARR) – Carrier shares rose 1.9% in the premarket after the stock was rated “buy” in new coverage at Deutsche Bank. The industrial equipment maker is poised to benefit from its exposure to non-residential construction as well as an increasing emphasis on indoor air quality, according to Deutsche Bank.\n7) Amazon.com(AMZN) – Amazon will bethe target of a nationwide unionization effortby the Teamsters Union, which accuses the retail giant of mistreating warehouse and logistics workers. The effort was announced in a resolution presented at the union’s international convention.\n8) Intel(INTC) – The semiconductor maker is creating two new business units, one that will focus on software and the other on high-performance computing and graphics.\n9) Alphabet(GOOGL) – Alphabet’s Google unit will soon face a lawsuit by a number of state attorneys general, according to a Reuters report. The suit – which could be filed as soon as next week – will accuse the company’s Google Play app store of violating antitrust law.\n10) Xpeng(XPEV) – Xpeng received permission from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering there, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that the China-based electric car maker is planning to raise up to $2 billion with that offering. Xpeng is already listed in the U.S. with a market value of more than $30 billion. Xpeng jumped 3.8% in the premarket.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129925969,"gmtCreate":1624353078451,"gmtModify":1634007387894,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574855965218634","idStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129925969","repostId":"1129393435","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129922945,"gmtCreate":1624353040987,"gmtModify":1634007388465,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574855965218634","idStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yu&nbsp;","listText":"Yu&nbsp;","text":"Yu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129922945","repostId":"1195801914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195801914","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624346913,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195801914?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 15:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Broad Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal Is Unlikely: Goldman<blockquote>高盛：不太可能达成广泛的两党基础设施协议</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195801914","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In its latest Q&A assessment of the state of US fiscal policy, Goldman's economics team writes that ","content":"<p>In its latest Q&amp;A assessment of the state of US fiscal policy, Goldman's economics team writes that while it \"still looks broadly on track to meet our expectations, risks continue to tilt in the direction of a smaller spending boost and smaller tax hike than the roughly $3 trillion and $1.5 trillion over ten years that we expect.\" The bank then notes that \"while a bipartisan deal on a broad infrastructure package cannot be ruled out, we continue to think the odds are against it, as there seems to be little agreement on financing it.\" Instead, Goldman expects Congress to pass a narrower infrastructure package focused mainly on transportation. If so, expect congressional Democrats to begin moving a broader fiscal package under the reconciliation process.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济团队在对美国财政政策状况的最新问答评估中写道，虽然“看起来仍基本有望满足我们的预期，但风险继续倾向于支出增长和增税幅度小于美国的预期。”我们预计十年内将达到3万亿美元和1.5万亿美元。”该银行随后指出，“虽然不能排除两党就广泛的基础设施一揽子计划达成协议的可能性，但我们仍然认为可能性很小，因为在融资方面似乎几乎没有达成一致。”相反，高盛预计国会将通过一项范围较窄的基础设施计划，主要关注交通运输。如果是这样，预计国会民主党人将在和解进程下开始推进更广泛的财政方案。</blockquote></p><p> Reading recent headlines, one would be left with the impression of a wide range of spending outcomes – a boost of a few hundred billion to as much as $6 trillion over ten years – but the range of outcomes is not as wide as these figures imply. Most of the “traditional” infrastructure President Biden has proposed looks likely to pass, along with substantial R&amp;D spending and renewal of personal tax credits that expire at year end. Together, these cost around 1% of GDP on an annual basis over the next few years. The remainder of the Biden agenda might boost spending by another1% of GDP, but Congress is expected to pare these proposals considerably.</p><p><blockquote>阅读最近的头条新闻，人们会留下广泛的支出结果的印象——十年内增加了几千亿美元到高达6万亿美元——但结果的范围并不像这些数字暗示的那样广泛。拜登总统提出的大部分“传统”基础设施看起来很可能会获得通过，同时还有大量的研发支出和年底到期的个人税收抵免的更新。在接下来的几年里，这些费用每年约占GDP的1%。拜登议程的其余部分可能会将支出再增加GDP的1%，但预计国会将大幅削减这些提案。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, tax increases also still look likely, assuming that Democrats pass legislation using the reconciliation process. That's why Goldman has not changed its views much in this area, and still expects<b>the corporate tax rate to settle around 25% along with more incremental versions of the international tax changes Biden has proposed.</b>A capital gains rate increase is a close call, but a 28%capital gains rate is slightly more likely than the status quo.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，假设民主党利用和解程序通过立法，增税看起来仍有可能。这就是为什么高盛在这方面的观点没有太大改变，并且仍然预计<b>企业税率将稳定在25%左右，以及拜登提出的更多增量版本的国际税收改革。</b>资本利得税率上调是一个接近看涨期权，但28%的资本利得税率比现状的可能性略大。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the likely timing of fiscal action has also changed more noticeably,<b>with likely enactment slipping from mid/late Q3 to Q4.</b>This is due in large part to the continuation of bipartisan negotiations for longer than we had expected, which has led congressional Democratic leaders to delay the first procedural steps necessary to pass a reconciliation bill.</p><p><blockquote>最后，财政行动的可能时机也发生了更明显的变化，<b>颁布可能会从第三季度中后期推迟到第四季度。</b>这在很大程度上是由于两党谈判持续的时间比我们预期的要长，这导致国会民主党领导人推迟了通过和解法案所需的第一步程序步骤。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Below we republish the key aspects of Goldman's FIscal Policy Status Check Q&amp;A:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>下面我们重新发布高盛财政政策状况检查问答的关键方面：</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Q: Will there be a bipartisan deal on a broad infrastructure bill?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：两党会就一项广泛的基础设施法案达成协议吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>A broad bipartisan infrastructure package still looks somewhat unlikely to us.</b>Negotiations in the Senate have progressed and the odds have increased somewhat that a bipartisan bill covering many areas in President Biden’s program might pass. However, we still think there are obstacles to a broad deal and expect that most of the fiscal boost Congress approves this year will come through a reconciliation bill that passes with only Democratic support.</p><p><blockquote><b>在我们看来，广泛的两党基础设施一揽子计划仍然不太可能。</b>参议院的谈判取得了进展，涵盖拜登总统计划中许多领域的两党法案获得通过的可能性有所增加。然而，我们仍然认为达成广泛协议存在障碍，并预计国会今年批准的大部分财政刺激将通过一项只有民主党支持才能通过的和解法案。</blockquote></p><p> Unsurprisingly, there appears to be the most agreement on boosting traditional infrastructure spending. As shown in Exhibit 1, the current Senate bipartisan proposal comes close to matching the White House proposal in most areas of transportation infrastructure.</p><p><blockquote>不出所料，在增加传统基础设施支出方面似乎达成了最多的共识。如图表1所示，目前参议院两党提案在交通基础设施的大多数领域接近白宫提案。</blockquote></p><p> More controversial is how to address non-traditional infrastructure and how to finance the cost of any new spending. The latest bipartisan effort appears to have made some inroads on the former. It includes $65bn for broadband, which falls short of the roughly $100bn that the White House proposed but it would be the greatest federal investment to date and seems close enough to the Democratic target that this issue alone looks unlikely to hold up an agreement.</p><p><blockquote>更有争议的是如何解决非传统基础设施以及如何为任何新支出的成本融资。两党的最新努力似乎在前者上取得了一些进展。其中包括650亿美元的宽带投资，低于白宫提议的约1000亿美元，但这将是迄今为止最大的联邦投资，而且似乎足够接近民主党的目标，仅这个问题似乎不太可能阻碍达成协议。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70d0d7b968b10f5764ef17cd3c787d53\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"1186\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Other areas of non-traditional infrastructure in bipartisan discussions are much farther away from White House goals. Senate Republicans look unlikely to support substantial funding for electric vehicles or construction of affordable housing, for example. Clean energy is more of a gray area; Congress has previously approved, on a bipartisan basis, a number of different incentives for energy efficiency and renewable energy like wind, solar, and biofuels. However, the program President Biden proposes is on a much larger scale than existing subsidies and the latest bipartisan proposal includes only a fraction of what the White House is seeking in this area.</p><p><blockquote>两党讨论中的其他非传统基础设施领域与白宫的目标相去甚远。例如，参议院共和党人看起来不太可能支持为电动汽车或经济适用房建设提供大量资金。清洁能源更多是一个灰色地带；国会此前已在两党基础上批准了一系列针对能源效率和风能、太阳能和生物燃料等可再生能源的不同激励措施。然而，拜登总统提出的计划比现有补贴规模大得多，最新的两党提案仅包括白宫在这一领域寻求的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> The greatest obstacle to prior political efforts at enacting an infrastructure program has been financing it. Here, there appears to have been much less progress (Exhibit 2). Each side has drawn lines they seem unlikely to cross: most Republicans oppose reversing any of the 2017 tax law or otherwise increasing income taxes—corporate or personal—to pay for the proposal. Most Democrats, including the White House, have ruled out increasing the user fees that finance most current infrastructure spending and appear uninterested in redirecting unspent COVID-relief funds.</p><p><blockquote>之前制定基础设施计划的政治努力的最大障碍是融资。在这里，进展似乎要小得多（图表2）。双方都划定了他们似乎不太可能跨越的界限：大多数共和党人反对推翻2017年的任何税法或以其他方式增加所得税（企业或个人）来支付该提案。包括白宫在内的大多数民主党人已经排除了增加为当前大多数基础设施支出提供资金的使用费的可能性，并且似乎对重新分配未用完的新冠救助资金不感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9578698f5c5efa5311cc0e31be31f715\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"509\">The most likely area of overlapping support is closing the “tax gap” through greater enforcement of existing tax laws, but even this faces challenges. Congressional estimates of the potential revenue gain from closing the tax gap are much smaller than the Administration’s. The Congressional Budget Office estimated in 2020 that increasing IRS funding by $20 billion over ten years would produce $60bn in additional revenue, while a $40bn increase would raise $103bn (i.e., the first $20bn bump would raise $3 for each dollar spent, while the next $20bn bump in funding would raise only $2 for each dollar of extra spending). While it is possible that CBO might revise its estimate in light of arguments from the Administration, or that Republicans might agree to policies beyond an IRS funding increase, it seems unlikely that additional IRS funding would come anywhere close to covering the cost of an infrastructure proposal, at least according to the official estimate that Congress will rely on.</p><p><blockquote>重叠支持最有可能的领域是通过加强现有税法的执行来缩小“税收差距”，但即使这样也面临挑战。国会对缩小税收差距的潜在收入收益的估计远小于政府的估计。国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget Office）在2020年估计，在十年内增加200亿美元的国税局资金将产生600亿美元的额外收入，而增加400亿美元将筹集1030亿美元（即，第一个200亿美元的增加将为每1美元的支出筹集3美元，而下一个200亿美元的增加将为每1美元的额外支出筹集2美元）。虽然CBO可能会根据政府的论点修改其估计，或者共和党人可能会同意国税局增加资金以外的政策，但国税局的额外资金似乎不太可能接近支付基础设施提案的成本，至少根据国会将依赖的官方估计。</blockquote></p><p> In our view, the only way that Congress will reach a bipartisan agreement on a broad infrastructure package is if lawmakers decide not to offset the new spending with savings elsewhere. So far, the White House and congressional Republicans have insisted that the bill should be paid for.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，国会就广泛的基础设施一揽子计划达成两党协议的唯一途径是立法者决定不用其他地方的储蓄来抵消新支出。到目前为止，白宫和国会共和党人坚持认为该法案应该得到支付。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Q: Without a bipartisan deal, what happens with infrastructure legislation?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：如果没有两党协议，基础设施立法会发生什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>If a broad bipartisan deal fails, a narrow one is likely to pass.</b>While a broad bipartisan agreement covering several aspects of the Biden proposal looks difficult to achieve, a narrower deal that primarily boosts transportation infrastructure looks likely to become law, for three reasons.</p><p><blockquote><b>如果广泛的两党协议失败，狭隘的协议很可能会通过。</b>虽然涵盖拜登提案几个方面的广泛两党协议看起来很难实现，但一项主要促进交通基础设施建设的范围较窄的协议看起来很可能成为法律，原因有三。</blockquote></p><p> First, federal programs for most areas of traditional infrastructure—highways, public transit, rail, airports, waterways and drinking/ wastewater—already exist. The largest of them, which are collectively funded by the Highway Trust Fund (HTF), expire September 30. Traditionally, Congress reauthorizes these programs in five-year increments,sometimes after one or more short-term extensions until lawmakers reach agreement.The legislation to renew these programs cannot pass via the reconciliation process, soDemocrats will need Republican support for any short- or long-term extension. Theupshot is that it is nearly certain that some type of infrastructure legislation passes on abipartisan basis to avoid a lapse in the programs.</p><p><blockquote>首先，针对传统基础设施大多数领域——高速公路、公共交通、铁路、机场、水路和饮用水/废水处理——的联邦计划已经存在。其中最大的一笔由公路信托基金（HTF）集体资助，将于9月30日到期。传统上，国会以五年为增量重新授权这些项目，有时在一次或多次短期延期之后，直到立法者达成协议。更新这些项目的立法无法通过和解程序，民主党人将需要共和党的支持才能进行任何短期或长期的延期。结果是，几乎可以肯定的是，某种类型的基础设施立法将在两党的基础上通过，以避免项目中的失误。</blockquote></p><p> Second, some progressive Democrats seem likely to oppose an infrastructure bill that does not include substantial new policies related to climate and clean energy. Without their votes, greater support among congressional Republicans in the House and Senate would be necessary. To win greater support, the bill might need to narrow its scope further, to the point that it mainly extends existing infrastructure spending programs.</p><p><blockquote>其次，一些进步民主党人似乎可能会反对一项不包括与气候和清洁能源相关的实质性新政策的基础设施法案。如果没有他们的投票，众议院和参议院共和党人的更大支持将是必要的。为了赢得更大的支持，该法案可能需要进一步缩小其范围，主要扩展现有的基础设施支出计划。</blockquote></p><p> Third, financing a narrow infrastructure deal would not be nearly as difficult as financing the sort of bill currently under discussion. Existing transportation infrastructure programs already have dedicated revenue streams that fund most of their spending. Financing an incremental boost in spending on existing programs would be far easier than finding bipartisan agreement on several hundred billion dollars in new revenue or spending cuts.</p><p><blockquote>第三，为一项狭隘的基础设施交易融资不会像为目前正在讨论的那种法案融资那么困难。现有的交通基础设施项目已经有专门的收入来源，为其大部分支出提供资金。为增加现有项目的支出提供资金比就数千亿美元的新收入或削减支出达成两党协议要容易得多。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Q: What difference does it make if Congress reaches a bipartisan deal on infrastructure?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：如果国会就基础设施达成两党协议，会有什么不同？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>A broad bipartisan infrastructure bill could reduce the odds that the rest of the Biden fiscal agenda becomes law</b>. A broader bipartisan deal that overlaps with many areas of the Biden proposal could reduce centrist Democratic support for passing subsequent fiscal legislation through the reconciliation process. If this occurred, the spending boost over the next few years might be smaller than we have been expecting but corporate and capital gains taxes would also be less likely to increase.</p><p><blockquote><b>一项广泛的两党基础设施法案可能会降低拜登财政议程其余部分成为法律的可能性</b>.一项与拜登提案的许多领域重叠的更广泛的两党协议可能会减少中间派民主党对通过和解进程通过后续财政立法的支持。如果发生这种情况，未来几年的支出增长可能会小于我们的预期，但公司税和资本利得税也不太可能增加。</blockquote></p><p> By contrast, a narrower bipartisan deal limited to traditional infrastructure would still leave the door open for Democrats to pass a separate fiscal package through the reconciliation process that addresses much of the remainder of President Biden’s proposals. Relative to the scenario in which Congress passes a broad bipartisan infrastructure deal, passing a narrow transportation bill followed by a separate reconciliation bill would likely result in a greater overall increase in spending, partly offset by tax increases.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，仅限于传统基础设施的范围较窄的两党协议仍将为民主党通过和解进程通过单独的财政方案敞开大门，该方案解决了拜登总统其余大部分提案。相对于国会通过一项广泛的两党基础设施协议的情况，通过一项狭隘的交通法案，然后通过一项单独的和解法案，可能会导致支出的总体增加，部分被增税抵消。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Q: What are the risks around spending levels under the different scenarios?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：不同情景下支出水平的风险是什么？</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Congress seems very likely to approve spending and tax benefits equal to at least 1% of GDP over the next few years, but unlikely to go beyond 2% of GDP.</b>Headlines regarding fiscal proposals over the last few weeks have run the gamut from a boost of only a few hundred billion at the low end (the Republican infrastructure proposal) to $6 trillion over ten years at the high end (the reported spending total Senate Democrats are considering).</p><p><blockquote><b>国会似乎很有可能在未来几年批准至少相当于GDP 1%的支出和税收优惠，但不太可能超过GDP的2%。</b>过去几周关于财政提案的头条新闻涵盖了从低端仅增加几千亿美元（共和党的基础设施提案）到高端十年内增加6万亿美元（参议院民主党人正在考虑的报告支出总额）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c29c240e9afe9bc1a84d4f359152bb57\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"675\">However, these large figures overstate the range of realistic scenarios. At a minimum, we expect Congress to enact three sets of policies this year: the infrastructure proposals that already have bipartisan support, the R&amp;D and manufacturing incentives that recently passed the Senate, and extension of the personal tax credits that Congress approved earlier this year. As Exhibit 3 shows, these policies would total around 1% of GDP by 2023, and would cost about $1.6 trillion over the next ten years. At this point, it is difficult to imagine Congress approving less this year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这些大数字夸大了现实情景的范围。至少，我们预计国会今年将颁布三套政策：已经获得两党支持的基础设施提案、参议院最近通过的研发和制造激励措施，以及国会今年早些时候批准的个人税收抵免延期。如图表3所示，到2023年，这些政策总计将占GDP的1%左右，未来十年将花费约1.6万亿美元。在这一点上，很难想象国会今年会批准更少。</blockquote></p><p> At the other end of the range of outcomes, it seems unlikely that Congress will enact spending worth more than 2% of GDP on an annual basis. As shown in Exhibit 3, Congress would need to pass nearly all of President Biden’s proposals to reach this level, or around $4.25 trillion over the next ten years.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，国会似乎不太可能制定每年超过GDP 2%的支出。如图表3所示，国会需要通过拜登总统的几乎所有提案才能达到这一水平，即未来十年约4.25万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The uncertainty is mainly related to new benefits for child care, education, and paid leave under the “American Families Plan” as well as the remaining areas of infrastructure that any sort of bipartisan infrastructure deal would likely omit. These areas depend most on the use of budget reconciliation legislation, as it seems very unlikely that any of the proposals would attract much Republican support.</p><p><blockquote>不确定性主要与“美国家庭计划”下的儿童保育、教育和带薪休假的新福利以及任何两党基础设施协议都可能忽略的剩余基础设施领域有关。这些领域最依赖于预算调节立法的使用，因为任何提案似乎都不太可能吸引共和党的支持。</blockquote></p><p> That said, even if Congress enacts nearly all of President Biden’s proposed policies, fiscal support will diminish substantially from 2021 to 2022. Exhibit 4 shows the deficit effect of legislation enacted since the pandemic began, as well as the fiscal effects of President Biden’s proposals using our own categorization.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，即使国会颁布了拜登总统提出的几乎所有政策，从2021年到2022年，财政支持也将大幅减少。图表4显示了自疫情开始以来颁布的立法的赤字效应，以及拜登总统使用我们自己的分类提出的提案的财政效应。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/812bd47cecb22835bb2a223a3ddecb8f\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"620\"><i>Q: How much will legislation this year increase spending?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：今年的立法将增加多少支出？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>We think the overall boost could amount to $2.5 to $3 trillion over the next ten years.</b>Assuming congressional Democrats take advantage of the reconciliation process to pass fiscal legislation, there will still be two constraints on the amount of additional spending Congress might approve.</p><p><blockquote><b>我们认为未来十年的总体增长可能达到2.5至3万亿美元。</b>假设国会民主党人利用和解程序通过财政立法，国会可能批准的额外支出金额仍将受到两个限制。</blockquote></p><p> Centrist Democrats in the House and Senate are likely to object to legislation that raises the deficit substantially over the next ten years. This will become relevant in the next few weeks, when Congress considers its budget resolution. To use the reconciliation process, the resolution must include instructions to the relevant committees to increase the deficit (or alternatively to increase spending and increase taxes) by specific amounts. The deficit impact of the reconciliation bill that follows will be limited to those amounts. It is extremely unlikely that any Republicans will vote for the Democratic budget resolution, so every Democratic senator and virtually every Democratic member of the House will need to vote for the resolution. It is not yet clear how much deficit expansion Democrats will be willing to support, but we expect centrist Democrats to draw the line at somewhere around $1 trillion. For context, President Biden’s recent budget submission to Congress proposed increasing the deficit by $800bn over the next ten years.</p><p><blockquote>众议院和参议院的中间派民主党人可能会反对在未来十年大幅增加赤字的立法。这将在未来几周国会审议其预算决议时变得相关。要使用调节程序，决议必须包括对相关委员会的指示，以具体金额增加赤字（或增加支出和增加税收）。随后的调节法案对赤字的影响将仅限于这些金额。任何共和党人都不太可能投票支持民主党的预算决议，因此每一位民主党参议员和几乎每一位众议院民主党议员都需要投票支持该决议。目前尚不清楚民主党人愿意支持多少赤字扩张，但我们预计中间派民主党人将在1万亿美元左右划定界限。作为背景，拜登总统最近向国会提交的预算提议在未来十年将赤字增加8000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Assuming a limit on the overall amount of deficit expansion, the amount of tax increases and other budgetary savings that lawmakers can agree to will determine how much they can increase spending. At the moment, we expect that Congress might be able to agree on around $1.5 trillion in budgetary savings, nearly all of which could come from tax increases, as discussed later. If so, a reconciliation bill would be limited to around $2.5 trillion in new spending. However, we expect that some additional spending might be approved as part of other legislation. The American Innovation and Competitiveness Act that recently passed the Senate would authorize up to $250bn in spending (around $200bn of this appears to be new money that does not overlap with existing spending). Most of the proposals are similar to policies in President Biden’s American Jobs Plan. However, much of this spending would depend on future Congresses to appropriate, making the overall amount somewhat uncertain. Similarly, a narrow infrastructure bill that passes separately from the larger reconciliation bill might add somewhat to the total. Overall, if Congress approves a reconciliation bill of around $2.5 trillion over ten years, this suggests a total bump to spending approaching $3 trillion over that period.</p><p><blockquote>假设赤字扩张的总量受到限制，立法者能够同意的增税和其他预算节省的金额将决定他们能够增加多少支出。目前，我们预计国会可能能够就约1.5万亿美元的预算节省达成一致，其中几乎所有资金都可能来自增税，正如稍后讨论的那样。如果是这样，和解法案将被限制在2.5万亿美元左右的新支出。然而，我们预计一些额外支出可能会作为其他立法的一部分获得批准。参议院最近通过的美国创新和竞争力法案将授权高达2500亿美元的支出（其中约2000亿美元似乎是与现有支出不重叠的新资金）。大多数提议与拜登总统的美国就业计划中的政策类似。然而，这笔支出的大部分将取决于未来的国会拨款，这使得总金额有些不确定。同样，与更大的和解法案分开通过的狭隘的基础设施法案可能会在一定程度上增加总数。总体而言，如果国会批准十年内约2.5万亿美元的和解法案，这意味着在此期间支出总额将接近3万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Q: Will taxes increase?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：税收会增加吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Assuming Congress passes any legislation using the reconciliation process, tax increases still seem likely.</b>Any bipartisan agreement on infrastructure or competitiveness is unlikely to include meaningful tax increases. If those bills pass and reduce support for subsequent reconciliation legislation, it is conceivable that Congress could fail to enact any tax increases this year, or before the mid-term election in 2022. However, this scenario looks fairly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote><b>假设国会利用和解程序通过任何立法，增税似乎仍有可能。</b>任何关于基础设施或竞争力的两党协议都不太可能包括有意义的增税。如果这些法案获得通过并减少对后续和解立法的支持，可以想象，国会可能无法在今年或2022年中期选举之前颁布任何增税措施。然而，这种情况看起来不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, we assume that Congress will pass around $1.5 trillion in tax increases over the next ten years, as outlined in Exhibit 5. A corporate tax increase still seems fairly likely, in our view, with a rate of around 25%. Some of the other international corporate provisions the Biden Administration has proposed also look likely to pass, though we expect the specifics to diverge from the Treasury proposals. Despite the recent attention a global minimum tax has received, we expect Congress to focus instead on revising the existing GILTI tax, which serves a similar purpose. We do not expect Congress to pass the separate minimum tax on book income that the Administration has proposed, as it looks unlikely to win unanimous support among Democrats and would add complexity without generating substantial revenue.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我们假设国会将在未来十年通过约1.5万亿美元的增税，如图表5所示。我们认为，公司税上调的可能性仍然很大，税率在25%左右。拜登政府提出的其他一些国际企业条款看起来也有可能获得通过，尽管我们预计具体细节将与财政部的提案有所不同。尽管全球最低税最近受到了关注，但我们预计国会将重点放在修订现有的GILTI税上，这也有类似的目的。我们预计国会不会通过政府提议的单独的账面收入最低税，因为它看起来不太可能赢得民主党人的一致支持，而且会在不产生大量收入的情况下增加复杂性。</blockquote></p><p> On the individual side, we continue to believe a capital gains tax increase is slightly more likely than not, though we expect it would rise only to 28% rather than the ordinary income tax rate. It also seems fairly unlikely that Congress will adopt the Administration’s proposal that unrealized capital gains should be taxed at death, as there has already been pushback among centrist Democrats against the concept.</p><p><blockquote>就个人而言，我们仍然认为资本利得税上调的可能性略大，尽管我们预计它只会升至28%，而不是普通所得税税率。国会似乎也不太可能采纳政府关于未实现资本收益应在死亡时征税的提议，因为中间派民主党人已经反对这一概念。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce834610ea19589696b1afcd4ca32a3\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"1379\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Q: When will all of this happen?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：这一切什么时候会发生？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>We expect a budget resolution to pass in July, a narrow infrastructure bill in September, and reconciliation legislation in Q4.</b>As noted earlier, before they use the budget reconciliation legislation to pass a fiscal package, congressional Democrats will first need to pass a budget resolution. We expect the details to become clear over the next few weeks, with passage ahead of the congressional recess that starts August 6.</p><p><blockquote><b>我们预计7月份将通过一项预算决议，9月份将通过一项狭义的基础设施法案，并在第四季度通过和解立法。</b>如前所述，在利用预算协调立法通过财政方案之前，国会民主党人首先需要通过一项预算决议。我们预计细节将在未来几周内变得清晰，并在8月6日开始的国会休会前通过。</blockquote></p><p> In September, we expect Congress to focus on other issues. First, some type of infrastructure legislation seems likely to pass by late September ahead of the Sep. 30 expiration of the highway program. A short-term extension is possible absent an agreement on a long-term extension.</p><p><blockquote>9月份，我们预计国会将关注其他问题。首先，在9月30日高速公路计划到期之前，某种类型的基础设施立法似乎可能会在9月下旬通过。如果没有就长期延期达成协议，短期延期是可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Second, Congress will need to extend spending authority for the rest of the federal government past September 30, the end of the fiscal year. At this point, a short-term continuing resolution looks likely, which will leave longer-term decisions until late in the year. The risk of a government shutdown around this deadline is low, in our view.</p><p><blockquote>其次，国会需要将联邦政府其他部门的支出授权延长至9月30日（本财年结束）之后。在这一点上，短期的持续解决方案看起来是可能的，这将把更长期的决定留到今年晚些时候。我们认为，在此截止日期前后政府关门的风险很低。</blockquote></p><p> Third, Congress will need to address the debt limit. We expect that Congress will need to raise the limit by early October, with a chance it might need to be raised in September. In theory, this could be done as part of a reconciliation bill (either the large reconciliation package we expect Congress to consider, or a standalone bill dealing with just the debt limit). However, the debt limit cannot be suspended under the reconciliation process, only raised, and this would involve specifying an explicit and very large dollar amount. Instead, we expect Democratic leaders to pass a debt limit suspension along with the extension of spending authority, though other scenarios are clearly possible.</p><p><blockquote>第三，国会需要解决债务上限问题。我们预计国会需要在10月初之前提高限额，并有可能在9月份提高。理论上，这可以作为和解法案的一部分（要么是我们希望国会考虑的大型和解方案，要么是仅处理债务限额的独立法案）。然而，在和解程序下，债务限额不能暂停，只能提高，这将涉及指定一个明确的和非常大的美元数额。相反，我们预计民主党领导人将在延长支出权力的同时通过暂停债务限额，尽管其他情况显然是可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With those issues out of the way, we expect congressional Democrats to attempt to finalize a fiscal package in Q4. It is possible that the legislation could be ready for a vote as early as October. However, since essentially every Democrat in both chambers of Congress will need to agree, reaching a final political compromise could take longer. It is entirely possible that it takes until December for Congress to finalize the fiscal package, ahead of the holiday recess at year-end.</p><p><blockquote>随着这些问题的解决，我们预计国会民主党人将试图在第四季度敲定财政方案。这项立法最早可能在10月份进行投票。然而，由于国会参众两院的每个民主党人都需要同意，达成最终的政治妥协可能需要更长的时间。国会完全有可能要到12月才能在年底假期休会之前敲定财政方案。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Broad Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal Is Unlikely: Goldman<blockquote>高盛：不太可能达成广泛的两党基础设施协议</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Broad Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal Is Unlikely: Goldman<blockquote>高盛：不太可能达成广泛的两党基础设施协议</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 15:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In its latest Q&amp;A assessment of the state of US fiscal policy, Goldman's economics team writes that while it \"still looks broadly on track to meet our expectations, risks continue to tilt in the direction of a smaller spending boost and smaller tax hike than the roughly $3 trillion and $1.5 trillion over ten years that we expect.\" The bank then notes that \"while a bipartisan deal on a broad infrastructure package cannot be ruled out, we continue to think the odds are against it, as there seems to be little agreement on financing it.\" Instead, Goldman expects Congress to pass a narrower infrastructure package focused mainly on transportation. If so, expect congressional Democrats to begin moving a broader fiscal package under the reconciliation process.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济团队在对美国财政政策状况的最新问答评估中写道，虽然“看起来仍基本有望满足我们的预期，但风险继续倾向于支出增长和增税幅度小于美国的预期。”我们预计十年内将达到3万亿美元和1.5万亿美元。”该银行随后指出，“虽然不能排除两党就广泛的基础设施一揽子计划达成协议的可能性，但我们仍然认为可能性很小，因为在融资方面似乎几乎没有达成一致。”相反，高盛预计国会将通过一项范围较窄的基础设施计划，主要关注交通运输。如果是这样，预计国会民主党人将在和解进程下开始推进更广泛的财政方案。</blockquote></p><p> Reading recent headlines, one would be left with the impression of a wide range of spending outcomes – a boost of a few hundred billion to as much as $6 trillion over ten years – but the range of outcomes is not as wide as these figures imply. Most of the “traditional” infrastructure President Biden has proposed looks likely to pass, along with substantial R&amp;D spending and renewal of personal tax credits that expire at year end. Together, these cost around 1% of GDP on an annual basis over the next few years. The remainder of the Biden agenda might boost spending by another1% of GDP, but Congress is expected to pare these proposals considerably.</p><p><blockquote>阅读最近的头条新闻，人们会留下广泛的支出结果的印象——十年内增加了几千亿美元到高达6万亿美元——但结果的范围并不像这些数字暗示的那样广泛。拜登总统提出的大部分“传统”基础设施看起来很可能会获得通过，同时还有大量的研发支出和年底到期的个人税收抵免的更新。在接下来的几年里，这些费用每年约占GDP的1%。拜登议程的其余部分可能会将支出再增加GDP的1%，但预计国会将大幅削减这些提案。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, tax increases also still look likely, assuming that Democrats pass legislation using the reconciliation process. That's why Goldman has not changed its views much in this area, and still expects<b>the corporate tax rate to settle around 25% along with more incremental versions of the international tax changes Biden has proposed.</b>A capital gains rate increase is a close call, but a 28%capital gains rate is slightly more likely than the status quo.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，假设民主党利用和解程序通过立法，增税看起来仍有可能。这就是为什么高盛在这方面的观点没有太大改变，并且仍然预计<b>企业税率将稳定在25%左右，以及拜登提出的更多增量版本的国际税收改革。</b>资本利得税率上调是一个接近看涨期权，但28%的资本利得税率比现状的可能性略大。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the likely timing of fiscal action has also changed more noticeably,<b>with likely enactment slipping from mid/late Q3 to Q4.</b>This is due in large part to the continuation of bipartisan negotiations for longer than we had expected, which has led congressional Democratic leaders to delay the first procedural steps necessary to pass a reconciliation bill.</p><p><blockquote>最后，财政行动的可能时机也发生了更明显的变化，<b>颁布可能会从第三季度中后期推迟到第四季度。</b>这在很大程度上是由于两党谈判持续的时间比我们预期的要长，这导致国会民主党领导人推迟了通过和解法案所需的第一步程序步骤。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Below we republish the key aspects of Goldman's FIscal Policy Status Check Q&amp;A:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>下面我们重新发布高盛财政政策状况检查问答的关键方面：</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Q: Will there be a bipartisan deal on a broad infrastructure bill?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：两党会就一项广泛的基础设施法案达成协议吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>A broad bipartisan infrastructure package still looks somewhat unlikely to us.</b>Negotiations in the Senate have progressed and the odds have increased somewhat that a bipartisan bill covering many areas in President Biden’s program might pass. However, we still think there are obstacles to a broad deal and expect that most of the fiscal boost Congress approves this year will come through a reconciliation bill that passes with only Democratic support.</p><p><blockquote><b>在我们看来，广泛的两党基础设施一揽子计划仍然不太可能。</b>参议院的谈判取得了进展，涵盖拜登总统计划中许多领域的两党法案获得通过的可能性有所增加。然而，我们仍然认为达成广泛协议存在障碍，并预计国会今年批准的大部分财政刺激将通过一项只有民主党支持才能通过的和解法案。</blockquote></p><p> Unsurprisingly, there appears to be the most agreement on boosting traditional infrastructure spending. As shown in Exhibit 1, the current Senate bipartisan proposal comes close to matching the White House proposal in most areas of transportation infrastructure.</p><p><blockquote>不出所料，在增加传统基础设施支出方面似乎达成了最多的共识。如图表1所示，目前参议院两党提案在交通基础设施的大多数领域接近白宫提案。</blockquote></p><p> More controversial is how to address non-traditional infrastructure and how to finance the cost of any new spending. The latest bipartisan effort appears to have made some inroads on the former. It includes $65bn for broadband, which falls short of the roughly $100bn that the White House proposed but it would be the greatest federal investment to date and seems close enough to the Democratic target that this issue alone looks unlikely to hold up an agreement.</p><p><blockquote>更有争议的是如何解决非传统基础设施以及如何为任何新支出的成本融资。两党的最新努力似乎在前者上取得了一些进展。其中包括650亿美元的宽带投资，低于白宫提议的约1000亿美元，但这将是迄今为止最大的联邦投资，而且似乎足够接近民主党的目标，仅这个问题似乎不太可能阻碍达成协议。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70d0d7b968b10f5764ef17cd3c787d53\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"1186\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Other areas of non-traditional infrastructure in bipartisan discussions are much farther away from White House goals. Senate Republicans look unlikely to support substantial funding for electric vehicles or construction of affordable housing, for example. Clean energy is more of a gray area; Congress has previously approved, on a bipartisan basis, a number of different incentives for energy efficiency and renewable energy like wind, solar, and biofuels. However, the program President Biden proposes is on a much larger scale than existing subsidies and the latest bipartisan proposal includes only a fraction of what the White House is seeking in this area.</p><p><blockquote>两党讨论中的其他非传统基础设施领域与白宫的目标相去甚远。例如，参议院共和党人看起来不太可能支持为电动汽车或经济适用房建设提供大量资金。清洁能源更多是一个灰色地带；国会此前已在两党基础上批准了一系列针对能源效率和风能、太阳能和生物燃料等可再生能源的不同激励措施。然而，拜登总统提出的计划比现有补贴规模大得多，最新的两党提案仅包括白宫在这一领域寻求的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> The greatest obstacle to prior political efforts at enacting an infrastructure program has been financing it. Here, there appears to have been much less progress (Exhibit 2). Each side has drawn lines they seem unlikely to cross: most Republicans oppose reversing any of the 2017 tax law or otherwise increasing income taxes—corporate or personal—to pay for the proposal. Most Democrats, including the White House, have ruled out increasing the user fees that finance most current infrastructure spending and appear uninterested in redirecting unspent COVID-relief funds.</p><p><blockquote>之前制定基础设施计划的政治努力的最大障碍是融资。在这里，进展似乎要小得多（图表2）。双方都划定了他们似乎不太可能跨越的界限：大多数共和党人反对推翻2017年的任何税法或以其他方式增加所得税（企业或个人）来支付该提案。包括白宫在内的大多数民主党人已经排除了增加为当前大多数基础设施支出提供资金的使用费的可能性，并且似乎对重新分配未用完的新冠救助资金不感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9578698f5c5efa5311cc0e31be31f715\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"509\">The most likely area of overlapping support is closing the “tax gap” through greater enforcement of existing tax laws, but even this faces challenges. Congressional estimates of the potential revenue gain from closing the tax gap are much smaller than the Administration’s. The Congressional Budget Office estimated in 2020 that increasing IRS funding by $20 billion over ten years would produce $60bn in additional revenue, while a $40bn increase would raise $103bn (i.e., the first $20bn bump would raise $3 for each dollar spent, while the next $20bn bump in funding would raise only $2 for each dollar of extra spending). While it is possible that CBO might revise its estimate in light of arguments from the Administration, or that Republicans might agree to policies beyond an IRS funding increase, it seems unlikely that additional IRS funding would come anywhere close to covering the cost of an infrastructure proposal, at least according to the official estimate that Congress will rely on.</p><p><blockquote>重叠支持最有可能的领域是通过加强现有税法的执行来缩小“税收差距”，但即使这样也面临挑战。国会对缩小税收差距的潜在收入收益的估计远小于政府的估计。国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget Office）在2020年估计，在十年内增加200亿美元的国税局资金将产生600亿美元的额外收入，而增加400亿美元将筹集1030亿美元（即，第一个200亿美元的增加将为每1美元的支出筹集3美元，而下一个200亿美元的增加将为每1美元的额外支出筹集2美元）。虽然CBO可能会根据政府的论点修改其估计，或者共和党人可能会同意国税局增加资金以外的政策，但国税局的额外资金似乎不太可能接近支付基础设施提案的成本，至少根据国会将依赖的官方估计。</blockquote></p><p> In our view, the only way that Congress will reach a bipartisan agreement on a broad infrastructure package is if lawmakers decide not to offset the new spending with savings elsewhere. So far, the White House and congressional Republicans have insisted that the bill should be paid for.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，国会就广泛的基础设施一揽子计划达成两党协议的唯一途径是立法者决定不用其他地方的储蓄来抵消新支出。到目前为止，白宫和国会共和党人坚持认为该法案应该得到支付。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Q: Without a bipartisan deal, what happens with infrastructure legislation?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：如果没有两党协议，基础设施立法会发生什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>If a broad bipartisan deal fails, a narrow one is likely to pass.</b>While a broad bipartisan agreement covering several aspects of the Biden proposal looks difficult to achieve, a narrower deal that primarily boosts transportation infrastructure looks likely to become law, for three reasons.</p><p><blockquote><b>如果广泛的两党协议失败，狭隘的协议很可能会通过。</b>虽然涵盖拜登提案几个方面的广泛两党协议看起来很难实现，但一项主要促进交通基础设施建设的范围较窄的协议看起来很可能成为法律，原因有三。</blockquote></p><p> First, federal programs for most areas of traditional infrastructure—highways, public transit, rail, airports, waterways and drinking/ wastewater—already exist. The largest of them, which are collectively funded by the Highway Trust Fund (HTF), expire September 30. Traditionally, Congress reauthorizes these programs in five-year increments,sometimes after one or more short-term extensions until lawmakers reach agreement.The legislation to renew these programs cannot pass via the reconciliation process, soDemocrats will need Republican support for any short- or long-term extension. Theupshot is that it is nearly certain that some type of infrastructure legislation passes on abipartisan basis to avoid a lapse in the programs.</p><p><blockquote>首先，针对传统基础设施大多数领域——高速公路、公共交通、铁路、机场、水路和饮用水/废水处理——的联邦计划已经存在。其中最大的一笔由公路信托基金（HTF）集体资助，将于9月30日到期。传统上，国会以五年为增量重新授权这些项目，有时在一次或多次短期延期之后，直到立法者达成协议。更新这些项目的立法无法通过和解程序，民主党人将需要共和党的支持才能进行任何短期或长期的延期。结果是，几乎可以肯定的是，某种类型的基础设施立法将在两党的基础上通过，以避免项目中的失误。</blockquote></p><p> Second, some progressive Democrats seem likely to oppose an infrastructure bill that does not include substantial new policies related to climate and clean energy. Without their votes, greater support among congressional Republicans in the House and Senate would be necessary. To win greater support, the bill might need to narrow its scope further, to the point that it mainly extends existing infrastructure spending programs.</p><p><blockquote>其次，一些进步民主党人似乎可能会反对一项不包括与气候和清洁能源相关的实质性新政策的基础设施法案。如果没有他们的投票，众议院和参议院共和党人的更大支持将是必要的。为了赢得更大的支持，该法案可能需要进一步缩小其范围，主要扩展现有的基础设施支出计划。</blockquote></p><p> Third, financing a narrow infrastructure deal would not be nearly as difficult as financing the sort of bill currently under discussion. Existing transportation infrastructure programs already have dedicated revenue streams that fund most of their spending. Financing an incremental boost in spending on existing programs would be far easier than finding bipartisan agreement on several hundred billion dollars in new revenue or spending cuts.</p><p><blockquote>第三，为一项狭隘的基础设施交易融资不会像为目前正在讨论的那种法案融资那么困难。现有的交通基础设施项目已经有专门的收入来源，为其大部分支出提供资金。为增加现有项目的支出提供资金比就数千亿美元的新收入或削减支出达成两党协议要容易得多。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Q: What difference does it make if Congress reaches a bipartisan deal on infrastructure?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：如果国会就基础设施达成两党协议，会有什么不同？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>A broad bipartisan infrastructure bill could reduce the odds that the rest of the Biden fiscal agenda becomes law</b>. A broader bipartisan deal that overlaps with many areas of the Biden proposal could reduce centrist Democratic support for passing subsequent fiscal legislation through the reconciliation process. If this occurred, the spending boost over the next few years might be smaller than we have been expecting but corporate and capital gains taxes would also be less likely to increase.</p><p><blockquote><b>一项广泛的两党基础设施法案可能会降低拜登财政议程其余部分成为法律的可能性</b>.一项与拜登提案的许多领域重叠的更广泛的两党协议可能会减少中间派民主党对通过和解进程通过后续财政立法的支持。如果发生这种情况，未来几年的支出增长可能会小于我们的预期，但公司税和资本利得税也不太可能增加。</blockquote></p><p> By contrast, a narrower bipartisan deal limited to traditional infrastructure would still leave the door open for Democrats to pass a separate fiscal package through the reconciliation process that addresses much of the remainder of President Biden’s proposals. Relative to the scenario in which Congress passes a broad bipartisan infrastructure deal, passing a narrow transportation bill followed by a separate reconciliation bill would likely result in a greater overall increase in spending, partly offset by tax increases.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，仅限于传统基础设施的范围较窄的两党协议仍将为民主党通过和解进程通过单独的财政方案敞开大门，该方案解决了拜登总统其余大部分提案。相对于国会通过一项广泛的两党基础设施协议的情况，通过一项狭隘的交通法案，然后通过一项单独的和解法案，可能会导致支出的总体增加，部分被增税抵消。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Q: What are the risks around spending levels under the different scenarios?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：不同情景下支出水平的风险是什么？</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Congress seems very likely to approve spending and tax benefits equal to at least 1% of GDP over the next few years, but unlikely to go beyond 2% of GDP.</b>Headlines regarding fiscal proposals over the last few weeks have run the gamut from a boost of only a few hundred billion at the low end (the Republican infrastructure proposal) to $6 trillion over ten years at the high end (the reported spending total Senate Democrats are considering).</p><p><blockquote><b>国会似乎很有可能在未来几年批准至少相当于GDP 1%的支出和税收优惠，但不太可能超过GDP的2%。</b>过去几周关于财政提案的头条新闻涵盖了从低端仅增加几千亿美元（共和党的基础设施提案）到高端十年内增加6万亿美元（参议院民主党人正在考虑的报告支出总额）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c29c240e9afe9bc1a84d4f359152bb57\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"675\">However, these large figures overstate the range of realistic scenarios. At a minimum, we expect Congress to enact three sets of policies this year: the infrastructure proposals that already have bipartisan support, the R&amp;D and manufacturing incentives that recently passed the Senate, and extension of the personal tax credits that Congress approved earlier this year. As Exhibit 3 shows, these policies would total around 1% of GDP by 2023, and would cost about $1.6 trillion over the next ten years. At this point, it is difficult to imagine Congress approving less this year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这些大数字夸大了现实情景的范围。至少，我们预计国会今年将颁布三套政策：已经获得两党支持的基础设施提案、参议院最近通过的研发和制造激励措施，以及国会今年早些时候批准的个人税收抵免延期。如图表3所示，到2023年，这些政策总计将占GDP的1%左右，未来十年将花费约1.6万亿美元。在这一点上，很难想象国会今年会批准更少。</blockquote></p><p> At the other end of the range of outcomes, it seems unlikely that Congress will enact spending worth more than 2% of GDP on an annual basis. As shown in Exhibit 3, Congress would need to pass nearly all of President Biden’s proposals to reach this level, or around $4.25 trillion over the next ten years.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，国会似乎不太可能制定每年超过GDP 2%的支出。如图表3所示，国会需要通过拜登总统的几乎所有提案才能达到这一水平，即未来十年约4.25万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The uncertainty is mainly related to new benefits for child care, education, and paid leave under the “American Families Plan” as well as the remaining areas of infrastructure that any sort of bipartisan infrastructure deal would likely omit. These areas depend most on the use of budget reconciliation legislation, as it seems very unlikely that any of the proposals would attract much Republican support.</p><p><blockquote>不确定性主要与“美国家庭计划”下的儿童保育、教育和带薪休假的新福利以及任何两党基础设施协议都可能忽略的剩余基础设施领域有关。这些领域最依赖于预算调节立法的使用，因为任何提案似乎都不太可能吸引共和党的支持。</blockquote></p><p> That said, even if Congress enacts nearly all of President Biden’s proposed policies, fiscal support will diminish substantially from 2021 to 2022. Exhibit 4 shows the deficit effect of legislation enacted since the pandemic began, as well as the fiscal effects of President Biden’s proposals using our own categorization.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，即使国会颁布了拜登总统提出的几乎所有政策，从2021年到2022年，财政支持也将大幅减少。图表4显示了自疫情开始以来颁布的立法的赤字效应，以及拜登总统使用我们自己的分类提出的提案的财政效应。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/812bd47cecb22835bb2a223a3ddecb8f\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"620\"><i>Q: How much will legislation this year increase spending?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：今年的立法将增加多少支出？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>We think the overall boost could amount to $2.5 to $3 trillion over the next ten years.</b>Assuming congressional Democrats take advantage of the reconciliation process to pass fiscal legislation, there will still be two constraints on the amount of additional spending Congress might approve.</p><p><blockquote><b>我们认为未来十年的总体增长可能达到2.5至3万亿美元。</b>假设国会民主党人利用和解程序通过财政立法，国会可能批准的额外支出金额仍将受到两个限制。</blockquote></p><p> Centrist Democrats in the House and Senate are likely to object to legislation that raises the deficit substantially over the next ten years. This will become relevant in the next few weeks, when Congress considers its budget resolution. To use the reconciliation process, the resolution must include instructions to the relevant committees to increase the deficit (or alternatively to increase spending and increase taxes) by specific amounts. The deficit impact of the reconciliation bill that follows will be limited to those amounts. It is extremely unlikely that any Republicans will vote for the Democratic budget resolution, so every Democratic senator and virtually every Democratic member of the House will need to vote for the resolution. It is not yet clear how much deficit expansion Democrats will be willing to support, but we expect centrist Democrats to draw the line at somewhere around $1 trillion. For context, President Biden’s recent budget submission to Congress proposed increasing the deficit by $800bn over the next ten years.</p><p><blockquote>众议院和参议院的中间派民主党人可能会反对在未来十年大幅增加赤字的立法。这将在未来几周国会审议其预算决议时变得相关。要使用调节程序，决议必须包括对相关委员会的指示，以具体金额增加赤字（或增加支出和增加税收）。随后的调节法案对赤字的影响将仅限于这些金额。任何共和党人都不太可能投票支持民主党的预算决议，因此每一位民主党参议员和几乎每一位众议院民主党议员都需要投票支持该决议。目前尚不清楚民主党人愿意支持多少赤字扩张，但我们预计中间派民主党人将在1万亿美元左右划定界限。作为背景，拜登总统最近向国会提交的预算提议在未来十年将赤字增加8000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Assuming a limit on the overall amount of deficit expansion, the amount of tax increases and other budgetary savings that lawmakers can agree to will determine how much they can increase spending. At the moment, we expect that Congress might be able to agree on around $1.5 trillion in budgetary savings, nearly all of which could come from tax increases, as discussed later. If so, a reconciliation bill would be limited to around $2.5 trillion in new spending. However, we expect that some additional spending might be approved as part of other legislation. The American Innovation and Competitiveness Act that recently passed the Senate would authorize up to $250bn in spending (around $200bn of this appears to be new money that does not overlap with existing spending). Most of the proposals are similar to policies in President Biden’s American Jobs Plan. However, much of this spending would depend on future Congresses to appropriate, making the overall amount somewhat uncertain. Similarly, a narrow infrastructure bill that passes separately from the larger reconciliation bill might add somewhat to the total. Overall, if Congress approves a reconciliation bill of around $2.5 trillion over ten years, this suggests a total bump to spending approaching $3 trillion over that period.</p><p><blockquote>假设赤字扩张的总量受到限制，立法者能够同意的增税和其他预算节省的金额将决定他们能够增加多少支出。目前，我们预计国会可能能够就约1.5万亿美元的预算节省达成一致，其中几乎所有资金都可能来自增税，正如稍后讨论的那样。如果是这样，和解法案将被限制在2.5万亿美元左右的新支出。然而，我们预计一些额外支出可能会作为其他立法的一部分获得批准。参议院最近通过的美国创新和竞争力法案将授权高达2500亿美元的支出（其中约2000亿美元似乎是与现有支出不重叠的新资金）。大多数提议与拜登总统的美国就业计划中的政策类似。然而，这笔支出的大部分将取决于未来的国会拨款，这使得总金额有些不确定。同样，与更大的和解法案分开通过的狭隘的基础设施法案可能会在一定程度上增加总数。总体而言，如果国会批准十年内约2.5万亿美元的和解法案，这意味着在此期间支出总额将接近3万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Q: Will taxes increase?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：税收会增加吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Assuming Congress passes any legislation using the reconciliation process, tax increases still seem likely.</b>Any bipartisan agreement on infrastructure or competitiveness is unlikely to include meaningful tax increases. If those bills pass and reduce support for subsequent reconciliation legislation, it is conceivable that Congress could fail to enact any tax increases this year, or before the mid-term election in 2022. However, this scenario looks fairly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote><b>假设国会利用和解程序通过任何立法，增税似乎仍有可能。</b>任何关于基础设施或竞争力的两党协议都不太可能包括有意义的增税。如果这些法案获得通过并减少对后续和解立法的支持，可以想象，国会可能无法在今年或2022年中期选举之前颁布任何增税措施。然而，这种情况看起来不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, we assume that Congress will pass around $1.5 trillion in tax increases over the next ten years, as outlined in Exhibit 5. A corporate tax increase still seems fairly likely, in our view, with a rate of around 25%. Some of the other international corporate provisions the Biden Administration has proposed also look likely to pass, though we expect the specifics to diverge from the Treasury proposals. Despite the recent attention a global minimum tax has received, we expect Congress to focus instead on revising the existing GILTI tax, which serves a similar purpose. We do not expect Congress to pass the separate minimum tax on book income that the Administration has proposed, as it looks unlikely to win unanimous support among Democrats and would add complexity without generating substantial revenue.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我们假设国会将在未来十年通过约1.5万亿美元的增税，如图表5所示。我们认为，公司税上调的可能性仍然很大，税率在25%左右。拜登政府提出的其他一些国际企业条款看起来也有可能获得通过，尽管我们预计具体细节将与财政部的提案有所不同。尽管全球最低税最近受到了关注，但我们预计国会将重点放在修订现有的GILTI税上，这也有类似的目的。我们预计国会不会通过政府提议的单独的账面收入最低税，因为它看起来不太可能赢得民主党人的一致支持，而且会在不产生大量收入的情况下增加复杂性。</blockquote></p><p> On the individual side, we continue to believe a capital gains tax increase is slightly more likely than not, though we expect it would rise only to 28% rather than the ordinary income tax rate. It also seems fairly unlikely that Congress will adopt the Administration’s proposal that unrealized capital gains should be taxed at death, as there has already been pushback among centrist Democrats against the concept.</p><p><blockquote>就个人而言，我们仍然认为资本利得税上调的可能性略大，尽管我们预计它只会升至28%，而不是普通所得税税率。国会似乎也不太可能采纳政府关于未实现资本收益应在死亡时征税的提议，因为中间派民主党人已经反对这一概念。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce834610ea19589696b1afcd4ca32a3\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"1379\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Q: When will all of this happen?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>问：这一切什么时候会发生？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>We expect a budget resolution to pass in July, a narrow infrastructure bill in September, and reconciliation legislation in Q4.</b>As noted earlier, before they use the budget reconciliation legislation to pass a fiscal package, congressional Democrats will first need to pass a budget resolution. We expect the details to become clear over the next few weeks, with passage ahead of the congressional recess that starts August 6.</p><p><blockquote><b>我们预计7月份将通过一项预算决议，9月份将通过一项狭义的基础设施法案，并在第四季度通过和解立法。</b>如前所述，在利用预算协调立法通过财政方案之前，国会民主党人首先需要通过一项预算决议。我们预计细节将在未来几周内变得清晰，并在8月6日开始的国会休会前通过。</blockquote></p><p> In September, we expect Congress to focus on other issues. First, some type of infrastructure legislation seems likely to pass by late September ahead of the Sep. 30 expiration of the highway program. A short-term extension is possible absent an agreement on a long-term extension.</p><p><blockquote>9月份，我们预计国会将关注其他问题。首先，在9月30日高速公路计划到期之前，某种类型的基础设施立法似乎可能会在9月下旬通过。如果没有就长期延期达成协议，短期延期是可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Second, Congress will need to extend spending authority for the rest of the federal government past September 30, the end of the fiscal year. At this point, a short-term continuing resolution looks likely, which will leave longer-term decisions until late in the year. The risk of a government shutdown around this deadline is low, in our view.</p><p><blockquote>其次，国会需要将联邦政府其他部门的支出授权延长至9月30日（本财年结束）之后。在这一点上，短期的持续解决方案看起来是可能的，这将把更长期的决定留到今年晚些时候。我们认为，在此截止日期前后政府关门的风险很低。</blockquote></p><p> Third, Congress will need to address the debt limit. We expect that Congress will need to raise the limit by early October, with a chance it might need to be raised in September. In theory, this could be done as part of a reconciliation bill (either the large reconciliation package we expect Congress to consider, or a standalone bill dealing with just the debt limit). However, the debt limit cannot be suspended under the reconciliation process, only raised, and this would involve specifying an explicit and very large dollar amount. Instead, we expect Democratic leaders to pass a debt limit suspension along with the extension of spending authority, though other scenarios are clearly possible.</p><p><blockquote>第三，国会需要解决债务上限问题。我们预计国会需要在10月初之前提高限额，并有可能在9月份提高。理论上，这可以作为和解法案的一部分（要么是我们希望国会考虑的大型和解方案，要么是仅处理债务限额的独立法案）。然而，在和解程序下，债务限额不能暂停，只能提高，这将涉及指定一个明确的和非常大的美元数额。相反，我们预计民主党领导人将在延长支出权力的同时通过暂停债务限额，尽管其他情况显然是可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With those issues out of the way, we expect congressional Democrats to attempt to finalize a fiscal package in Q4. It is possible that the legislation could be ready for a vote as early as October. However, since essentially every Democrat in both chambers of Congress will need to agree, reaching a final political compromise could take longer. It is entirely possible that it takes until December for Congress to finalize the fiscal package, ahead of the holiday recess at year-end.</p><p><blockquote>随着这些问题的解决，我们预计国会民主党人将试图在第四季度敲定财政方案。这项立法最早可能在10月份进行投票。然而，由于国会参众两院的每个民主党人都需要同意，达成最终的政治妥协可能需要更长的时间。国会完全有可能要到12月才能在年底假期休会之前敲定财政方案。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/broad-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal-unlikely-goldman\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/broad-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal-unlikely-goldman","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195801914","content_text":"In its latest Q&A assessment of the state of US fiscal policy, Goldman's economics team writes that while it \"still looks broadly on track to meet our expectations, risks continue to tilt in the direction of a smaller spending boost and smaller tax hike than the roughly $3 trillion and $1.5 trillion over ten years that we expect.\" The bank then notes that \"while a bipartisan deal on a broad infrastructure package cannot be ruled out, we continue to think the odds are against it, as there seems to be little agreement on financing it.\" Instead, Goldman expects Congress to pass a narrower infrastructure package focused mainly on transportation. If so, expect congressional Democrats to begin moving a broader fiscal package under the reconciliation process.\nReading recent headlines, one would be left with the impression of a wide range of spending outcomes – a boost of a few hundred billion to as much as $6 trillion over ten years – but the range of outcomes is not as wide as these figures imply. Most of the “traditional” infrastructure President Biden has proposed looks likely to pass, along with substantial R&D spending and renewal of personal tax credits that expire at year end. Together, these cost around 1% of GDP on an annual basis over the next few years. The remainder of the Biden agenda might boost spending by another1% of GDP, but Congress is expected to pare these proposals considerably.\nMeanwhile, tax increases also still look likely, assuming that Democrats pass legislation using the reconciliation process. That's why Goldman has not changed its views much in this area, and still expectsthe corporate tax rate to settle around 25% along with more incremental versions of the international tax changes Biden has proposed.A capital gains rate increase is a close call, but a 28%capital gains rate is slightly more likely than the status quo.\nFinally, the likely timing of fiscal action has also changed more noticeably,with likely enactment slipping from mid/late Q3 to Q4.This is due in large part to the continuation of bipartisan negotiations for longer than we had expected, which has led congressional Democratic leaders to delay the first procedural steps necessary to pass a reconciliation bill.\nBelow we republish the key aspects of Goldman's FIscal Policy Status Check Q&A:\nQ: Will there be a bipartisan deal on a broad infrastructure bill?\nA broad bipartisan infrastructure package still looks somewhat unlikely to us.Negotiations in the Senate have progressed and the odds have increased somewhat that a bipartisan bill covering many areas in President Biden’s program might pass. However, we still think there are obstacles to a broad deal and expect that most of the fiscal boost Congress approves this year will come through a reconciliation bill that passes with only Democratic support.\nUnsurprisingly, there appears to be the most agreement on boosting traditional infrastructure spending. As shown in Exhibit 1, the current Senate bipartisan proposal comes close to matching the White House proposal in most areas of transportation infrastructure.\nMore controversial is how to address non-traditional infrastructure and how to finance the cost of any new spending. The latest bipartisan effort appears to have made some inroads on the former. It includes $65bn for broadband, which falls short of the roughly $100bn that the White House proposed but it would be the greatest federal investment to date and seems close enough to the Democratic target that this issue alone looks unlikely to hold up an agreement.\n\nOther areas of non-traditional infrastructure in bipartisan discussions are much farther away from White House goals. Senate Republicans look unlikely to support substantial funding for electric vehicles or construction of affordable housing, for example. Clean energy is more of a gray area; Congress has previously approved, on a bipartisan basis, a number of different incentives for energy efficiency and renewable energy like wind, solar, and biofuels. However, the program President Biden proposes is on a much larger scale than existing subsidies and the latest bipartisan proposal includes only a fraction of what the White House is seeking in this area.\nThe greatest obstacle to prior political efforts at enacting an infrastructure program has been financing it. Here, there appears to have been much less progress (Exhibit 2). Each side has drawn lines they seem unlikely to cross: most Republicans oppose reversing any of the 2017 tax law or otherwise increasing income taxes—corporate or personal—to pay for the proposal. Most Democrats, including the White House, have ruled out increasing the user fees that finance most current infrastructure spending and appear uninterested in redirecting unspent COVID-relief funds.\nThe most likely area of overlapping support is closing the “tax gap” through greater enforcement of existing tax laws, but even this faces challenges. Congressional estimates of the potential revenue gain from closing the tax gap are much smaller than the Administration’s. The Congressional Budget Office estimated in 2020 that increasing IRS funding by $20 billion over ten years would produce $60bn in additional revenue, while a $40bn increase would raise $103bn (i.e., the first $20bn bump would raise $3 for each dollar spent, while the next $20bn bump in funding would raise only $2 for each dollar of extra spending). While it is possible that CBO might revise its estimate in light of arguments from the Administration, or that Republicans might agree to policies beyond an IRS funding increase, it seems unlikely that additional IRS funding would come anywhere close to covering the cost of an infrastructure proposal, at least according to the official estimate that Congress will rely on.\nIn our view, the only way that Congress will reach a bipartisan agreement on a broad infrastructure package is if lawmakers decide not to offset the new spending with savings elsewhere. So far, the White House and congressional Republicans have insisted that the bill should be paid for.\nQ: Without a bipartisan deal, what happens with infrastructure legislation?\nIf a broad bipartisan deal fails, a narrow one is likely to pass.While a broad bipartisan agreement covering several aspects of the Biden proposal looks difficult to achieve, a narrower deal that primarily boosts transportation infrastructure looks likely to become law, for three reasons.\nFirst, federal programs for most areas of traditional infrastructure—highways, public transit, rail, airports, waterways and drinking/ wastewater—already exist. The largest of them, which are collectively funded by the Highway Trust Fund (HTF), expire September 30. Traditionally, Congress reauthorizes these programs in five-year increments,sometimes after one or more short-term extensions until lawmakers reach agreement.The legislation to renew these programs cannot pass via the reconciliation process, soDemocrats will need Republican support for any short- or long-term extension. Theupshot is that it is nearly certain that some type of infrastructure legislation passes on abipartisan basis to avoid a lapse in the programs.\nSecond, some progressive Democrats seem likely to oppose an infrastructure bill that does not include substantial new policies related to climate and clean energy. Without their votes, greater support among congressional Republicans in the House and Senate would be necessary. To win greater support, the bill might need to narrow its scope further, to the point that it mainly extends existing infrastructure spending programs.\nThird, financing a narrow infrastructure deal would not be nearly as difficult as financing the sort of bill currently under discussion. Existing transportation infrastructure programs already have dedicated revenue streams that fund most of their spending. Financing an incremental boost in spending on existing programs would be far easier than finding bipartisan agreement on several hundred billion dollars in new revenue or spending cuts.\nQ: What difference does it make if Congress reaches a bipartisan deal on infrastructure?\nA broad bipartisan infrastructure bill could reduce the odds that the rest of the Biden fiscal agenda becomes law. A broader bipartisan deal that overlaps with many areas of the Biden proposal could reduce centrist Democratic support for passing subsequent fiscal legislation through the reconciliation process. If this occurred, the spending boost over the next few years might be smaller than we have been expecting but corporate and capital gains taxes would also be less likely to increase.\nBy contrast, a narrower bipartisan deal limited to traditional infrastructure would still leave the door open for Democrats to pass a separate fiscal package through the reconciliation process that addresses much of the remainder of President Biden’s proposals. Relative to the scenario in which Congress passes a broad bipartisan infrastructure deal, passing a narrow transportation bill followed by a separate reconciliation bill would likely result in a greater overall increase in spending, partly offset by tax increases.\nQ: What are the risks around spending levels under the different scenarios?\nCongress seems very likely to approve spending and tax benefits equal to at least 1% of GDP over the next few years, but unlikely to go beyond 2% of GDP.Headlines regarding fiscal proposals over the last few weeks have run the gamut from a boost of only a few hundred billion at the low end (the Republican infrastructure proposal) to $6 trillion over ten years at the high end (the reported spending total Senate Democrats are considering).\nHowever, these large figures overstate the range of realistic scenarios. At a minimum, we expect Congress to enact three sets of policies this year: the infrastructure proposals that already have bipartisan support, the R&D and manufacturing incentives that recently passed the Senate, and extension of the personal tax credits that Congress approved earlier this year. As Exhibit 3 shows, these policies would total around 1% of GDP by 2023, and would cost about $1.6 trillion over the next ten years. At this point, it is difficult to imagine Congress approving less this year.\nAt the other end of the range of outcomes, it seems unlikely that Congress will enact spending worth more than 2% of GDP on an annual basis. As shown in Exhibit 3, Congress would need to pass nearly all of President Biden’s proposals to reach this level, or around $4.25 trillion over the next ten years.\nThe uncertainty is mainly related to new benefits for child care, education, and paid leave under the “American Families Plan” as well as the remaining areas of infrastructure that any sort of bipartisan infrastructure deal would likely omit. These areas depend most on the use of budget reconciliation legislation, as it seems very unlikely that any of the proposals would attract much Republican support.\nThat said, even if Congress enacts nearly all of President Biden’s proposed policies, fiscal support will diminish substantially from 2021 to 2022. Exhibit 4 shows the deficit effect of legislation enacted since the pandemic began, as well as the fiscal effects of President Biden’s proposals using our own categorization.\nQ: How much will legislation this year increase spending?\nWe think the overall boost could amount to $2.5 to $3 trillion over the next ten years.Assuming congressional Democrats take advantage of the reconciliation process to pass fiscal legislation, there will still be two constraints on the amount of additional spending Congress might approve.\nCentrist Democrats in the House and Senate are likely to object to legislation that raises the deficit substantially over the next ten years. This will become relevant in the next few weeks, when Congress considers its budget resolution. To use the reconciliation process, the resolution must include instructions to the relevant committees to increase the deficit (or alternatively to increase spending and increase taxes) by specific amounts. The deficit impact of the reconciliation bill that follows will be limited to those amounts. It is extremely unlikely that any Republicans will vote for the Democratic budget resolution, so every Democratic senator and virtually every Democratic member of the House will need to vote for the resolution. It is not yet clear how much deficit expansion Democrats will be willing to support, but we expect centrist Democrats to draw the line at somewhere around $1 trillion. For context, President Biden’s recent budget submission to Congress proposed increasing the deficit by $800bn over the next ten years.\nAssuming a limit on the overall amount of deficit expansion, the amount of tax increases and other budgetary savings that lawmakers can agree to will determine how much they can increase spending. At the moment, we expect that Congress might be able to agree on around $1.5 trillion in budgetary savings, nearly all of which could come from tax increases, as discussed later. If so, a reconciliation bill would be limited to around $2.5 trillion in new spending. However, we expect that some additional spending might be approved as part of other legislation. The American Innovation and Competitiveness Act that recently passed the Senate would authorize up to $250bn in spending (around $200bn of this appears to be new money that does not overlap with existing spending). Most of the proposals are similar to policies in President Biden’s American Jobs Plan. However, much of this spending would depend on future Congresses to appropriate, making the overall amount somewhat uncertain. Similarly, a narrow infrastructure bill that passes separately from the larger reconciliation bill might add somewhat to the total. Overall, if Congress approves a reconciliation bill of around $2.5 trillion over ten years, this suggests a total bump to spending approaching $3 trillion over that period.\nQ: Will taxes increase?\nAssuming Congress passes any legislation using the reconciliation process, tax increases still seem likely.Any bipartisan agreement on infrastructure or competitiveness is unlikely to include meaningful tax increases. If those bills pass and reduce support for subsequent reconciliation legislation, it is conceivable that Congress could fail to enact any tax increases this year, or before the mid-term election in 2022. However, this scenario looks fairly unlikely.\nInstead, we assume that Congress will pass around $1.5 trillion in tax increases over the next ten years, as outlined in Exhibit 5. A corporate tax increase still seems fairly likely, in our view, with a rate of around 25%. Some of the other international corporate provisions the Biden Administration has proposed also look likely to pass, though we expect the specifics to diverge from the Treasury proposals. Despite the recent attention a global minimum tax has received, we expect Congress to focus instead on revising the existing GILTI tax, which serves a similar purpose. We do not expect Congress to pass the separate minimum tax on book income that the Administration has proposed, as it looks unlikely to win unanimous support among Democrats and would add complexity without generating substantial revenue.\nOn the individual side, we continue to believe a capital gains tax increase is slightly more likely than not, though we expect it would rise only to 28% rather than the ordinary income tax rate. It also seems fairly unlikely that Congress will adopt the Administration’s proposal that unrealized capital gains should be taxed at death, as there has already been pushback among centrist Democrats against the concept.\n\nQ: When will all of this happen?\nWe expect a budget resolution to pass in July, a narrow infrastructure bill in September, and reconciliation legislation in Q4.As noted earlier, before they use the budget reconciliation legislation to pass a fiscal package, congressional Democrats will first need to pass a budget resolution. We expect the details to become clear over the next few weeks, with passage ahead of the congressional recess that starts August 6.\nIn September, we expect Congress to focus on other issues. First, some type of infrastructure legislation seems likely to pass by late September ahead of the Sep. 30 expiration of the highway program. A short-term extension is possible absent an agreement on a long-term extension.\nSecond, Congress will need to extend spending authority for the rest of the federal government past September 30, the end of the fiscal year. At this point, a short-term continuing resolution looks likely, which will leave longer-term decisions until late in the year. The risk of a government shutdown around this deadline is low, in our view.\nThird, Congress will need to address the debt limit. We expect that Congress will need to raise the limit by early October, with a chance it might need to be raised in September. In theory, this could be done as part of a reconciliation bill (either the large reconciliation package we expect Congress to consider, or a standalone bill dealing with just the debt limit). However, the debt limit cannot be suspended under the reconciliation process, only raised, and this would involve specifying an explicit and very large dollar amount. Instead, we expect Democratic leaders to pass a debt limit suspension along with the extension of spending authority, though other scenarios are clearly possible.\nWith those issues out of the way, we expect congressional Democrats to attempt to finalize a fiscal package in Q4. It is possible that the legislation could be ready for a vote as early as October. However, since essentially every Democrat in both chambers of Congress will need to agree, reaching a final political compromise could take longer. It is entirely possible that it takes until December for Congress to finalize the fiscal package, ahead of the holiday recess at 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17:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并盈利</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107200738","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTwilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Twilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.</li>  <li>Meanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.</li>  <li>As a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.</li>  <li>At its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c999acf1acd79840514a42f3c4521\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Twilio被误解为一只只受益于COVID-19顺风的股票，当重新开业成为中心舞台时，它就会失败。</li><li>与此同时，该公司通过多项关键收购继续增强实力，其中该部门交易最为重要。</li><li>由于第三方cookies的弃用，公司可能会更加需要Twilio。</li><li>按照目前的估值和133%的高DBNER，投资者应该利用最近的价格疲软立即进入Twilio。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格雷尔/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsInvestment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者误解了Twilio(TWLO)的商业模式，因为它无法盈利，尽管它实现了行业领先的收入增长指标。虽然该公司可能尚未实现息税前利润，但在收购了全球排名第一的客户数据平台[CDP]后，该公司正在将自己打造成拥有一流客户参与平台的CPaaS领导者：Segment。投资者现在应该明白，推动数字化的长期顺风不会逆转，因此TWLO作为满足全球客户参与需求的平台，处于有利地位。再加上第三方cookies即将被弃用，公司可能会发现TWLO在他们未来的客户参与工作中更加重要。按照目前的估值，投资者应该会发现TWLO的估值实际上可能低于SaaS领域上市的许多股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Twilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Twilio不是典型的SaaS股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec3449de8bbaa50dabd8b4343c41583\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DBNER. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DBNER.数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Twilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER&nbsp;“increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”</p><p><blockquote>Twilio作为CPaaS的价值主张与典型的SaaS公司不同，典型的SaaS公司通过定期订阅来充分利用其收入，并通过交叉销售到其他产品或通过占据更多席位来增加或维持其DBNER或DBNRR。TWLO的收入主要基于使用量。因此，当客户更多地使用其平台时，公司会获得更多收入，而当客户更少使用平台时，公司会获得更少收入。因此，由于它是基于使用情况的，我们只需观察其DBNER趋势就可以轻松确定其客户的使用强度。TWLO的DBNER“当此类活跃客户帐户增加对产品的使用、将产品的使用扩展到新应用程序时，Twilio基于美元的净扩张率就会下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a&nbsp;normalized DBNER in the range of 130s&nbsp;moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们可以从TWLO强劲的DBNER趋势中清楚地观察到，多年来，其客户对其平台的净使用量一直在不断增加，这实际上在COVID-19袭击之前就已经开始了。TWLO的DBNER也基本保持一致，该公司也有信心在130秒范围内实现标准化DBNER。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a&nbsp;recent article on Teladoc&nbsp;(TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司还强调，其平台在许多行业的用例继续增加，特别是在远程医疗领域，这是另一个被错误地认为只是COVID-19现象的市场，没有可持续性。我们之前曾在Teladoc(TDOC)最近的一篇文章中介绍过为什么远程医疗的快速增长早在大流行爆发之前就开始了，并且仍处于增长阶段的早期，因为该市场预计在未来的CAGR增长率将超过20%10年。因此，推动许多不同行业数字化的长期顺风也将推动TWLO作为市场领先的云通信和客户参与平台的业务增加。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ecc737bf53e45f2b6a58e0d2121279\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR。资料来源：原子财经</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses&nbsp;usage-based pricing: Snowflake&nbsp;(SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.</p><p><blockquote>当我们放眼SaaS空间时尤其如此。投资者很难找到许多像TWLO（中位数：120%）这样的NRR始终高于130%的公司。另一家同样采用基于使用量定价的公司：Snowflake(SNOW)最近一个季度的NRR为168%。投资者可能认为，如果客户使用率大幅下降，这些采用基于使用率定价的公司可能会遭受损失。然而，TWLO和SNOW都证明了他们的平台是如此具有粘性，并提供了如此多的价值，以至于一旦你使用它，随着时间的推移，你会越来越多地使用它，并将使用扩展到新产品中。因此，随着用例的不断增加，这种基于使用情况的定价模式对公司的营收具有固有的强大推动力，如果没有基于使用情况的模型，典型的基于订阅的ARR模式可能无法复制这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场确实低估了Segment的收购</b></blockquote></p><p> In our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the&nbsp;No.1 CDP worldwide&nbsp;ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，市场确实低估了Segment对TWLO的收购。首先，Segment是IDC排名的全球第一的CDP，因此我们认为TWLO在那里做了一笔惊人的交易。事实上，该公司强调了他们认为此次收购对他们来说有多重要（我们强调）：</blockquote></p><p>   We think the&nbsp;  <b>industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam</b>. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience.  Notwithstanding the&nbsp;significant dilution&nbsp;funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为<b>Segment plus Twilio的工业逻辑只是一个——这不仅仅是一个本垒打。这是个大满贯</b>.我认为对我们来说，将数据能力与通信能力结合起来对于提供丰富的客户体验是绝对必要的。尽管大部分股权交易的资金大幅稀释，但我认为投资者应该了解在其投资组合中拥有同类最佳CDP的战略重要性，这对于TWLO的基础CPaaS产品至关重要，因为它现在为客户提供了访问权限通过跨不同系统的统一视图进行实时分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfb70f9acdfe008ff26825a2894a4c7\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"544\"><span>Level of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CDP对成功指标的影响程度。数据来源：广告主感知；珍藏数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.</p><p><blockquote>从上述对不同行业的营销人员进行的调查中，我们可以观察到在他们的营销KPI中加入CDP的深远影响。绝大多数受访者指出，本次调查中列出的所有指标都有所改善，其中非常高比例的受访者（33%至45%）表示各自类别有“显著改善”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908f65bb3623fd3ba2b147e803f8e7\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"520\"><span>Benefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>营销技术决策者认为CDP的好处。数据来源：广告主感知；统一的</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”</p><p><blockquote>此外，49%的受访者还表示，CDP允许他们跨多个来源统一数据，他们认为这是最重要的好处。Twilio还强调了这一点的重要性，并补充说：“消费者不再仅仅局限于一种沟通形式，他们希望公司能够将不同的互动结合在一起，根据他们正在做的事情提供日益个性化的内容——随时随地，并通过他们喜欢的渠道。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc20b41946569e8afa10fb1ef39a90f\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"768\"><span>Measures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国营销人员为应对第三方cookies弃用的影响而采取的措施。数据来源：Epsilon；广告周刊；Phronesis合作伙伴</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use&nbsp;first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is&nbsp;least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着第三方cookies即将被弃用，营销人员一直在寻找缓解这种损失影响的方法，其中大多数人（67.3%）一直在建立CDP。CDP主要收集和使用第一方数据，这确实是最重要的客户数据来源，因为它提供了最准确和可操作的见解，也是最不容易受到隐私法规影响的来源，这一点也得到了TWLO的认可当被问及TWLO是否因其第一方数据访问而看到隐私法规的任何推动力时，该公司回答道：</blockquote></p><p>   100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes.  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f2d9eb714512b81b6ae70b957a82d4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Share of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp</span></p><p><blockquote>100%.我认为你说到点子上了，实际上有效地回答了你自己的问题。我认为他们在这件事上非常正确。我的意思是他们是非常非常强大的数据管家。他们是一家隐私第一的公司。我认为即使在欧盟，地球动力学的一些趋势也对他们有利。因此，我确实认为数据和数据监管对他们来说是一个潜在的推动力，是的。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国与他人合作共享第一方数据的组织份额数据来源：Winterberry Group；LiveRamp</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步强调第一方数据的重要性，我们可以看到64.3%的公司有共享第一方数据的协作安排，而16.7%的公司有这样做的计划。在后cookie时代，我相信组织甚至需要在数据收集和分析工作中更加积极主动，拥有一个类似CDP的部门来帮助这一点绝对至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是的，我们知道公司还没有盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2871e7911997921fe11150b8d0e30\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"734\"><span>EBIT margin, SG&amp;A margin, R&amp;D margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&amp;A and R&amp;D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:</p><p><blockquote>然而，应该提醒投资者，TWLO尚未实现营业利润，尽管该公司已将长期营业利润率定为28%。投资者应该明白，TWLO也不会很快实现营业利润，因为该公司仍处于大量投资模式（从其较高的SG&amp;A和R&amp;D利润率可以看出），因为它看到了很多投资机会，也可能收购，该公司已进行了多项备受瞩目的收购，如Segment、ValueFirst、Syniverse、Zipwhip等。公司极力强调了这一点：</blockquote></p><p>   But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen.  Therefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.</p><p><blockquote>但这并不意味着我们不会盈利，不可能盈利。我的意思是，我们的增长水平非常高，如果你愿意的话，肯定比我们公司的平均水平要好。只是我们其他的业务增长真的很快，对吧？因此，根据我们目前的轨迹，为了让它真正出现在我们的财务状况中，其他事情必须放缓，这不是我们想要的。这不是你想要的。这不是任何人真正想要的，对吗？所以我认为在适当的时候，所有这些事情都会发生。因此，要求TWLO投资者表现出极大的耐心，给TWLO时间实现盈利，并允许他们首先继续扩大收入增长。市场普遍预测，该公司21财年将继续快速增长，同比增长约44.5%，随后同比增长也将超过30%。TWLO还承诺在未来四年内将其收入增长30%以上，因此投资者需要给TWLO时间来交付货物，因此这只股票不适合寻求2至3年期限的短期投资者，或者一家将盈利能力置于增长之上的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1059052c9408212d41ace9bed94cdd4a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"698\"><span>Revenue metrics. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>收入指标。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd552d195006ab4d2b5bb01567a6fdf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\"><span>SaaS EV / 2021 Rev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS EV/2021修订版。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77dea7178c4b94d74a75bc24aab22561\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>TWLO EV/Fwd修订版数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑TWLO的EV/FY+1倍数为20.6倍，而SaaS的中位数为26.3倍时，可以合理地认为TWLO看起来并不昂贵。同样值得注意的是，TWLO预计也将快速增长，我们预计其市盈率将随着时间的推移大幅下降（假设其电动汽车保持不变，如果TWLO继续实现其高增长战略，当然不太可能出现这种情况）。我们非常确定，SaaS领域还有更多公司的估值更高，但预期收入增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f626c7ad165f68d36e614c8163606c2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为TWLO总体上具有强烈的长期上升趋势偏差，这种偏差在过去3年中仅被COVID-19熊市打断过一次。价格最近在300美元左右的50W移动平均线上找到了支撑，此后价格逐渐从最近的暴跌中恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Although we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们更希望在300美元支撑位附近加仓，但我们也不认为当前价格水平昂贵，并认为投资者可以考虑在当前价格水平发起或加仓。然而，他们应该避免在405美元水平附近增加，因为我们认为该水平应该有近期阻力。此外，对于喜欢小幅逢低的投资者来说，您可以等到下一次回撤再次测试50W支撑位，其中也有可能增加320美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Twilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio是一只增长非常高的股票，它已将收入增长作为目前最重要的优先事项，因为它看到了未来巨大的增长机会。投资者被要求给TWLO时间来实现其预期的长期盈利能力，因为该公司将自己打造成多个行业公司云通信和客户参与领域的领先企业。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并盈利</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并盈利</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 17:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Twilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.</li>  <li>Meanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.</li>  <li>As a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.</li>  <li>At its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c999acf1acd79840514a42f3c4521\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Twilio被误解为一只只受益于COVID-19顺风的股票，当重新开业成为中心舞台时，它就会失败。</li><li>与此同时，该公司通过多项关键收购继续增强实力，其中该部门交易最为重要。</li><li>由于第三方cookies的弃用，公司可能会更加需要Twilio。</li><li>按照目前的估值和133%的高DBNER，投资者应该利用最近的价格疲软立即进入Twilio。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格雷尔/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsInvestment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者误解了Twilio(TWLO)的商业模式，因为它无法盈利，尽管它实现了行业领先的收入增长指标。虽然该公司可能尚未实现息税前利润，但在收购了全球排名第一的客户数据平台[CDP]后，该公司正在将自己打造成拥有一流客户参与平台的CPaaS领导者：Segment。投资者现在应该明白，推动数字化的长期顺风不会逆转，因此TWLO作为满足全球客户参与需求的平台，处于有利地位。再加上第三方cookies即将被弃用，公司可能会发现TWLO在他们未来的客户参与工作中更加重要。按照目前的估值，投资者应该会发现TWLO的估值实际上可能低于SaaS领域上市的许多股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Twilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Twilio不是典型的SaaS股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec3449de8bbaa50dabd8b4343c41583\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DBNER. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DBNER.数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Twilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER&nbsp;“increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”</p><p><blockquote>Twilio作为CPaaS的价值主张与典型的SaaS公司不同，典型的SaaS公司通过定期订阅来充分利用其收入，并通过交叉销售到其他产品或通过占据更多席位来增加或维持其DBNER或DBNRR。TWLO的收入主要基于使用量。因此，当客户更多地使用其平台时，公司会获得更多收入，而当客户更少使用平台时，公司会获得更少收入。因此，由于它是基于使用情况的，我们只需观察其DBNER趋势就可以轻松确定其客户的使用强度。TWLO的DBNER“当此类活跃客户帐户增加对产品的使用、将产品的使用扩展到新应用程序时，Twilio基于美元的净扩张率就会下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a&nbsp;normalized DBNER in the range of 130s&nbsp;moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们可以从TWLO强劲的DBNER趋势中清楚地观察到，多年来，其客户对其平台的净使用量一直在不断增加，这实际上在COVID-19袭击之前就已经开始了。TWLO的DBNER也基本保持一致，该公司也有信心在130秒范围内实现标准化DBNER。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a&nbsp;recent article on Teladoc&nbsp;(TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司还强调，其平台在许多行业的用例继续增加，特别是在远程医疗领域，这是另一个被错误地认为只是COVID-19现象的市场，没有可持续性。我们之前曾在Teladoc(TDOC)最近的一篇文章中介绍过为什么远程医疗的快速增长早在大流行爆发之前就开始了，并且仍处于增长阶段的早期，因为该市场预计在未来的CAGR增长率将超过20%10年。因此，推动许多不同行业数字化的长期顺风也将推动TWLO作为市场领先的云通信和客户参与平台的业务增加。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ecc737bf53e45f2b6a58e0d2121279\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR。资料来源：原子财经</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses&nbsp;usage-based pricing: Snowflake&nbsp;(SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.</p><p><blockquote>当我们放眼SaaS空间时尤其如此。投资者很难找到许多像TWLO（中位数：120%）这样的NRR始终高于130%的公司。另一家同样采用基于使用量定价的公司：Snowflake(SNOW)最近一个季度的NRR为168%。投资者可能认为，如果客户使用率大幅下降，这些采用基于使用率定价的公司可能会遭受损失。然而，TWLO和SNOW都证明了他们的平台是如此具有粘性，并提供了如此多的价值，以至于一旦你使用它，随着时间的推移，你会越来越多地使用它，并将使用扩展到新产品中。因此，随着用例的不断增加，这种基于使用情况的定价模式对公司的营收具有固有的强大推动力，如果没有基于使用情况的模型，典型的基于订阅的ARR模式可能无法复制这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场确实低估了Segment的收购</b></blockquote></p><p> In our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the&nbsp;No.1 CDP worldwide&nbsp;ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，市场确实低估了Segment对TWLO的收购。首先，Segment是IDC排名的全球第一的CDP，因此我们认为TWLO在那里做了一笔惊人的交易。事实上，该公司强调了他们认为此次收购对他们来说有多重要（我们强调）：</blockquote></p><p>   We think the&nbsp;  <b>industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam</b>. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience.  Notwithstanding the&nbsp;significant dilution&nbsp;funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为<b>Segment plus Twilio的工业逻辑只是一个——这不仅仅是一个本垒打。这是个大满贯</b>.我认为对我们来说，将数据能力与通信能力结合起来对于提供丰富的客户体验是绝对必要的。尽管大部分股权交易的资金大幅稀释，但我认为投资者应该了解在其投资组合中拥有同类最佳CDP的战略重要性，这对于TWLO的基础CPaaS产品至关重要，因为它现在为客户提供了访问权限通过跨不同系统的统一视图进行实时分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfb70f9acdfe008ff26825a2894a4c7\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"544\"><span>Level of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CDP对成功指标的影响程度。数据来源：广告主感知；珍藏数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.</p><p><blockquote>从上述对不同行业的营销人员进行的调查中，我们可以观察到在他们的营销KPI中加入CDP的深远影响。绝大多数受访者指出，本次调查中列出的所有指标都有所改善，其中非常高比例的受访者（33%至45%）表示各自类别有“显著改善”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908f65bb3623fd3ba2b147e803f8e7\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"520\"><span>Benefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>营销技术决策者认为CDP的好处。数据来源：广告主感知；统一的</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”</p><p><blockquote>此外，49%的受访者还表示，CDP允许他们跨多个来源统一数据，他们认为这是最重要的好处。Twilio还强调了这一点的重要性，并补充说：“消费者不再仅仅局限于一种沟通形式，他们希望公司能够将不同的互动结合在一起，根据他们正在做的事情提供日益个性化的内容——随时随地，并通过他们喜欢的渠道。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc20b41946569e8afa10fb1ef39a90f\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"768\"><span>Measures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国营销人员为应对第三方cookies弃用的影响而采取的措施。数据来源：Epsilon；广告周刊；Phronesis合作伙伴</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use&nbsp;first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is&nbsp;least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着第三方cookies即将被弃用，营销人员一直在寻找缓解这种损失影响的方法，其中大多数人（67.3%）一直在建立CDP。CDP主要收集和使用第一方数据，这确实是最重要的客户数据来源，因为它提供了最准确和可操作的见解，也是最不容易受到隐私法规影响的来源，这一点也得到了TWLO的认可当被问及TWLO是否因其第一方数据访问而看到隐私法规的任何推动力时，该公司回答道：</blockquote></p><p>   100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes.  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f2d9eb714512b81b6ae70b957a82d4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Share of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp</span></p><p><blockquote>100%.我认为你说到点子上了，实际上有效地回答了你自己的问题。我认为他们在这件事上非常正确。我的意思是他们是非常非常强大的数据管家。他们是一家隐私第一的公司。我认为即使在欧盟，地球动力学的一些趋势也对他们有利。因此，我确实认为数据和数据监管对他们来说是一个潜在的推动力，是的。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国与他人合作共享第一方数据的组织份额数据来源：Winterberry Group；LiveRamp</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步强调第一方数据的重要性，我们可以看到64.3%的公司有共享第一方数据的协作安排，而16.7%的公司有这样做的计划。在后cookie时代，我相信组织甚至需要在数据收集和分析工作中更加积极主动，拥有一个类似CDP的部门来帮助这一点绝对至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是的，我们知道公司还没有盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2871e7911997921fe11150b8d0e30\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"734\"><span>EBIT margin, SG&amp;A margin, R&amp;D margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&amp;A and R&amp;D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:</p><p><blockquote>然而，应该提醒投资者，TWLO尚未实现营业利润，尽管该公司已将长期营业利润率定为28%。投资者应该明白，TWLO也不会很快实现营业利润，因为该公司仍处于大量投资模式（从其较高的SG&amp;A和R&amp;D利润率可以看出），因为它看到了很多投资机会，也可能收购，该公司已进行了多项备受瞩目的收购，如Segment、ValueFirst、Syniverse、Zipwhip等。公司极力强调了这一点：</blockquote></p><p>   But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen.  Therefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.</p><p><blockquote>但这并不意味着我们不会盈利，不可能盈利。我的意思是，我们的增长水平非常高，如果你愿意的话，肯定比我们公司的平均水平要好。只是我们其他的业务增长真的很快，对吧？因此，根据我们目前的轨迹，为了让它真正出现在我们的财务状况中，其他事情必须放缓，这不是我们想要的。这不是你想要的。这不是任何人真正想要的，对吗？所以我认为在适当的时候，所有这些事情都会发生。因此，要求TWLO投资者表现出极大的耐心，给TWLO时间实现盈利，并允许他们首先继续扩大收入增长。市场普遍预测，该公司21财年将继续快速增长，同比增长约44.5%，随后同比增长也将超过30%。TWLO还承诺在未来四年内将其收入增长30%以上，因此投资者需要给TWLO时间来交付货物，因此这只股票不适合寻求2至3年期限的短期投资者，或者一家将盈利能力置于增长之上的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1059052c9408212d41ace9bed94cdd4a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"698\"><span>Revenue metrics. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>收入指标。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd552d195006ab4d2b5bb01567a6fdf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\"><span>SaaS EV / 2021 Rev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS EV/2021修订版。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77dea7178c4b94d74a75bc24aab22561\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>TWLO EV/Fwd修订版数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑TWLO的EV/FY+1倍数为20.6倍，而SaaS的中位数为26.3倍时，可以合理地认为TWLO看起来并不昂贵。同样值得注意的是，TWLO预计也将快速增长，我们预计其市盈率将随着时间的推移大幅下降（假设其电动汽车保持不变，如果TWLO继续实现其高增长战略，当然不太可能出现这种情况）。我们非常确定，SaaS领域还有更多公司的估值更高，但预期收入增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f626c7ad165f68d36e614c8163606c2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为TWLO总体上具有强烈的长期上升趋势偏差，这种偏差在过去3年中仅被COVID-19熊市打断过一次。价格最近在300美元左右的50W移动平均线上找到了支撑，此后价格逐渐从最近的暴跌中恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Although we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们更希望在300美元支撑位附近加仓，但我们也不认为当前价格水平昂贵，并认为投资者可以考虑在当前价格水平发起或加仓。然而，他们应该避免在405美元水平附近增加，因为我们认为该水平应该有近期阻力。此外，对于喜欢小幅逢低的投资者来说，您可以等到下一次回撤再次测试50W支撑位，其中也有可能增加320美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Twilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio是一只增长非常高的股票，它已将收入增长作为目前最重要的优先事项，因为它看到了未来巨大的增长机会。投资者被要求给TWLO时间来实现其预期的长期盈利能力，因为该公司将自己打造成多个行业公司云通信和客户参与领域的领先企业。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435794-twilio-investors-need-give-time-for-scale-up-and-profitable\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWLO":"Twilio Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435794-twilio-investors-need-give-time-for-scale-up-and-profitable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107200738","content_text":"Summary\n\nTwilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.\nMeanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.\nAs a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.\nAt its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.\n\nDrew Angerer/Getty Images\nNewsInvestment Thesis\nMany investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.\nTwilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock\nDBNER. Data source: Company filings\nTwilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER “increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”\nTherefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a normalized DBNER in the range of 130s moving forward.\nMoreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a recent article on Teladoc (TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.\nSaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance\nThis is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses usage-based pricing: Snowflake (SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.\nMarket Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition\nIn our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the No.1 CDP worldwide ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):\n\n We think the \n industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience.\n\nNotwithstanding the significant dilution funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.\nLevel of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data\nWe could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.\nBenefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida\nIn addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”\nMeasures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners\nMoreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:\n\n 100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes.\n\nShare of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp\nIn order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.\nYes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable\nEBIT margin, SG&A margin, R&D margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&A and R&D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:\n\n But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen.\n\nTherefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.\nRevenue metrics. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nValuations\nSaaS EV / 2021 Rev.\nTWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\n\nWe think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.\nAlthough we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.\nWrapping It All Up\nTwilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWLO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167298660,"gmtCreate":1624268869550,"gmtModify":1634008651979,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574855965218634","idStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167298660","repostId":"1136994311","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136994311","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624267966,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136994311?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Biogen Isn't a Buy After Its Alzheimer's Drug Approval<blockquote>为什么百健(Biogen)的阿尔茨海默氏症药物获得批准后不值得购买</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136994311","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Here's one longtime healthcare expert's perspective.\n\nBiogen(NASDAQ:BIIB)has been a huge winner for ","content":"<p>  Here's one longtime healthcare expert's perspective.  <b>Biogen</b>(NASDAQ:BIIB)has been a huge winner for investors who owned the stock in anticipation of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of its Alzheimer's disease drug, Aduhelm.&nbsp;In this<i>Motley Fool Live</i>video<b>recorded on June 9</b>, Motley Fool contributors Keith Speights and Brian Orelli discuss one reason why Biogen isn't a buy after its key FDA victory.</p><p><blockquote>以下是一位长期医疗保健专家的观点。<b>Biogen</b>（纳斯达克：BIIB）对于因预期美国股市而持有该股的投资者来说是一个巨大的赢家。美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）批准其阿尔茨海默病药物Aduhelm。在这<i>杂色傻瓜直播</i>录像<b>记录于6月9日</b>Motley Fool撰稿人Keith Speights和Brian Orelli讨论了Biogen在FDA取得关键胜利后不值得买入的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keith Speights:</b>Let's segue then to the obvious question here. The question that a lot of investors are asking now is, \"Should I buy Biogen&nbsp;stock after this big FDA approval for its Alzheimer's disease drug?\" Brian, what should investors be factoring in to their decision making process right now? What's your take on whether or not Biogen is a buy right now?</p><p><blockquote><b>基思·斯贝茨：</b>让我们继续讨论这个显而易见的问题。现在很多投资者问的问题是，“在FDA批准Biogen的阿尔茨海默病药物后，我应该购买Biogen的股票吗？”布莱恩，投资者现在应该在决策过程中考虑哪些因素？您对Biogen现在是否值得买入有何看法？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Brian Orelli:</b>From a valuation standpoint, it's easy to look at historical data and see where they've been trading. I tend to look at price-to-sales just because drug companies, if you use the earnings, it's a little more difficult because they have a lot of one-time events and acquisitions and things like that and licensing deals that throw off their GAAP earnings. Then if you're looking at historical earnings, they usually don't back those out, so I use price-to-sales as a metric.</p><p><blockquote><b>布莱恩·奥雷利：</b>从估值的角度来看，很容易查看历史数据并了解它们的交易地点。我倾向于关注市销率，只是因为制药公司，如果你使用收益，会有点困难，因为他们有很多一次性事件和收购之类的事情以及许可交易，这些都会影响他们的GAAP收益。然后，如果你看历史收益，他们通常不会支持这些，所以我使用市销率作为指标。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen is trading at least after Monday's, after Monday's jump, it was at 4.9 price-to-sales ratio. Last time it traded at that level was in the 2018, 2019 time frame, and at that point, revenue was hovering around 10% growth.</p><p><blockquote>百健(Biogen)至少在周一之后进行交易，在周一上涨之后，其市销率为4.9。上一次在该水平交易是在2018年、2019年，当时收入增长徘徊在10%左右。</blockquote></p><p> To justify this price-to-sales ratio, you have to expect that sales are going to grow by 10% per year. Revenue was $13.45 billion in 2020. You need to get to $14.8 billion to get to that 10% growth. Guidance for next year is for it to drop to $10.45 billion to $10.75 billion, and they had already factored in modest revenue from Aduhelm in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>为了证明这个市销率是合理的，你必须预计销售额每年会增长10%。2020年收入为134.5亿美元。你需要达到148亿美元才能实现10%的增长。明年的指导是降至104.5亿至107.5亿美元，他们已经考虑到2021年Aduhelm的适度收入。</blockquote></p><p> At the high end, Biogen needs $4 billion in sales to justify the current valuation. Four billion would be completely reasonable for an Alzheimer's disease drug, and $10 billion would probably be reasonable, but that would be a drug that actually helps patients. As we've said, there's not enough data to know whether Aduhelm actually helps patients.</p><p><blockquote>在高端，Biogen需要40亿美元的销售额才能证明当前估值的合理性。对于一种阿尔茨海默病药物来说，40亿美元是完全合理的，100亿美元可能也是合理的，但那将是一种真正帮助患者的药物。正如我们所说，没有足够的数据来了解Aduhelm是否真的对患者有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> Medicare, they've got the drug approved so that's good, but they need to get the doctors to prescribe it, and they need to get insurers to cover it. Medicare will probably cover it, but it's an infused product and that means it's covered under Medicare Part B, B as in boy, not D as in drugs. That comes with a 20% copay after reaching the deductible. We're talking about $10,000 for the patients they're going to have to pay on the drug. That's going to really limit sales.</p><p><blockquote>医疗保险，他们已经批准了药物，所以这很好，但他们需要让医生开处方，他们需要让保险公司承保。医疗保险可能会承保它，但它是一种注入产品，这意味着它受医疗保险B部分的承保，B代表男孩，而不是D代表药物。达到免赔额后，需要支付20%的共付额。我们谈论的是为患者支付10,000美元的药物费用。这将真正限制销售。</blockquote></p><p> If you want to look at it at a different way, if you assume the valuation already factors in the fall to around $10.5 billion and then you are looking for 10% growth from there, now you only need $1 billion or so in sales to justify that growth. Maybe that seems a little more doable, but then that assumes that the revenue from the multiple sclerosis drugs, Tecfidera and Rituxan, that are causing the drop this year, and that you have to assume that's going to just stop.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想从不同的角度来看，如果你假设估值已经考虑到下跌至105亿美元左右，然后你希望在此基础上实现10%的增长，那么现在你只需要10亿美元左右的销售额来证明这种增长是合理的。也许这看起来更可行一点，但假设多发性硬化症药物Tecfidera和Rituxan的收入导致了今年的下降，并且你必须假设这种情况将会停止。</blockquote></p><p> I don't think that's going to stop, so that means either they're going to generate more than $1 billion to justify 10% growth from 2021-2022. Very long story short, I have a hard time seeing the value of investing at this level.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这种情况不会停止，所以这意味着他们要么将产生超过10亿美元的收入，以证明2021年至2022年10%的增长是合理的。长话短说，我很难看到这个水平的投资价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Biogen Isn't a Buy After Its Alzheimer's Drug Approval<blockquote>为什么百健(Biogen)的阿尔茨海默氏症药物获得批准后不值得购买</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Biogen Isn't a Buy After Its Alzheimer's Drug Approval<blockquote>为什么百健(Biogen)的阿尔茨海默氏症药物获得批准后不值得购买</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Here's one longtime healthcare expert's perspective.  <b>Biogen</b>(NASDAQ:BIIB)has been a huge winner for investors who owned the stock in anticipation of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of its Alzheimer's disease drug, Aduhelm.&nbsp;In this<i>Motley Fool Live</i>video<b>recorded on June 9</b>, Motley Fool contributors Keith Speights and Brian Orelli discuss one reason why Biogen isn't a buy after its key FDA victory.</p><p><blockquote>以下是一位长期医疗保健专家的观点。<b>Biogen</b>（纳斯达克：BIIB）对于因预期美国股市而持有该股的投资者来说是一个巨大的赢家。美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）批准其阿尔茨海默病药物Aduhelm。在这<i>杂色傻瓜直播</i>录像<b>记录于6月9日</b>Motley Fool撰稿人Keith Speights和Brian Orelli讨论了Biogen在FDA取得关键胜利后不值得买入的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keith Speights:</b>Let's segue then to the obvious question here. The question that a lot of investors are asking now is, \"Should I buy Biogen&nbsp;stock after this big FDA approval for its Alzheimer's disease drug?\" Brian, what should investors be factoring in to their decision making process right now? What's your take on whether or not Biogen is a buy right now?</p><p><blockquote><b>基思·斯贝茨：</b>让我们继续讨论这个显而易见的问题。现在很多投资者问的问题是，“在FDA批准Biogen的阿尔茨海默病药物后，我应该购买Biogen的股票吗？”布莱恩，投资者现在应该在决策过程中考虑哪些因素？您对Biogen现在是否值得买入有何看法？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Brian Orelli:</b>From a valuation standpoint, it's easy to look at historical data and see where they've been trading. I tend to look at price-to-sales just because drug companies, if you use the earnings, it's a little more difficult because they have a lot of one-time events and acquisitions and things like that and licensing deals that throw off their GAAP earnings. Then if you're looking at historical earnings, they usually don't back those out, so I use price-to-sales as a metric.</p><p><blockquote><b>布莱恩·奥雷利：</b>从估值的角度来看，很容易查看历史数据并了解它们的交易地点。我倾向于关注市销率，只是因为制药公司，如果你使用收益，会有点困难，因为他们有很多一次性事件和收购之类的事情以及许可交易，这些都会影响他们的GAAP收益。然后，如果你看历史收益，他们通常不会支持这些，所以我使用市销率作为指标。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen is trading at least after Monday's, after Monday's jump, it was at 4.9 price-to-sales ratio. Last time it traded at that level was in the 2018, 2019 time frame, and at that point, revenue was hovering around 10% growth.</p><p><blockquote>百健(Biogen)至少在周一之后进行交易，在周一上涨之后，其市销率为4.9。上一次在该水平交易是在2018年、2019年，当时收入增长徘徊在10%左右。</blockquote></p><p> To justify this price-to-sales ratio, you have to expect that sales are going to grow by 10% per year. Revenue was $13.45 billion in 2020. You need to get to $14.8 billion to get to that 10% growth. Guidance for next year is for it to drop to $10.45 billion to $10.75 billion, and they had already factored in modest revenue from Aduhelm in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>为了证明这个市销率是合理的，你必须预计销售额每年会增长10%。2020年收入为134.5亿美元。你需要达到148亿美元才能实现10%的增长。明年的指导是降至104.5亿至107.5亿美元，他们已经考虑到2021年Aduhelm的适度收入。</blockquote></p><p> At the high end, Biogen needs $4 billion in sales to justify the current valuation. Four billion would be completely reasonable for an Alzheimer's disease drug, and $10 billion would probably be reasonable, but that would be a drug that actually helps patients. As we've said, there's not enough data to know whether Aduhelm actually helps patients.</p><p><blockquote>在高端，Biogen需要40亿美元的销售额才能证明当前估值的合理性。对于一种阿尔茨海默病药物来说，40亿美元是完全合理的，100亿美元可能也是合理的，但那将是一种真正帮助患者的药物。正如我们所说，没有足够的数据来了解Aduhelm是否真的对患者有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> Medicare, they've got the drug approved so that's good, but they need to get the doctors to prescribe it, and they need to get insurers to cover it. Medicare will probably cover it, but it's an infused product and that means it's covered under Medicare Part B, B as in boy, not D as in drugs. That comes with a 20% copay after reaching the deductible. We're talking about $10,000 for the patients they're going to have to pay on the drug. That's going to really limit sales.</p><p><blockquote>医疗保险，他们已经批准了药物，所以这很好，但他们需要让医生开处方，他们需要让保险公司承保。医疗保险可能会承保它，但它是一种注入产品，这意味着它受医疗保险B部分的承保，B代表男孩，而不是D代表药物。达到免赔额后，需要支付20%的共付额。我们谈论的是为患者支付10,000美元的药物费用。这将真正限制销售。</blockquote></p><p> If you want to look at it at a different way, if you assume the valuation already factors in the fall to around $10.5 billion and then you are looking for 10% growth from there, now you only need $1 billion or so in sales to justify that growth. Maybe that seems a little more doable, but then that assumes that the revenue from the multiple sclerosis drugs, Tecfidera and Rituxan, that are causing the drop this year, and that you have to assume that's going to just stop.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想从不同的角度来看，如果你假设估值已经考虑到下跌至105亿美元左右，然后你希望在此基础上实现10%的增长，那么现在你只需要10亿美元左右的销售额来证明这种增长是合理的。也许这看起来更可行一点，但假设多发性硬化症药物Tecfidera和Rituxan的收入导致了今年的下降，并且你必须假设这种情况将会停止。</blockquote></p><p> I don't think that's going to stop, so that means either they're going to generate more than $1 billion to justify 10% growth from 2021-2022. Very long story short, I have a hard time seeing the value of investing at this level.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这种情况不会停止，所以这意味着他们要么将产生超过10亿美元的收入，以证明2021年至2022年10%的增长是合理的。长话短说，我很难看到这个水平的投资价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/20/why-biogen-isnt-a-buy-after-its-alzheimers-drug-ap/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BIIB":"渤健公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/20/why-biogen-isnt-a-buy-after-its-alzheimers-drug-ap/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136994311","content_text":"Here's one longtime healthcare expert's perspective.\n\nBiogen(NASDAQ:BIIB)has been a huge winner for investors who owned the stock in anticipation of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of its Alzheimer's disease drug, Aduhelm. In thisMotley Fool Livevideorecorded on June 9, Motley Fool contributors Keith Speights and Brian Orelli discuss one reason why Biogen isn't a buy after its key FDA victory.\nKeith Speights:Let's segue then to the obvious question here. The question that a lot of investors are asking now is, \"Should I buy Biogen stock after this big FDA approval for its Alzheimer's disease drug?\" Brian, what should investors be factoring in to their decision making process right now? What's your take on whether or not Biogen is a buy right now?\nBrian Orelli:From a valuation standpoint, it's easy to look at historical data and see where they've been trading. I tend to look at price-to-sales just because drug companies, if you use the earnings, it's a little more difficult because they have a lot of one-time events and acquisitions and things like that and licensing deals that throw off their GAAP earnings. Then if you're looking at historical earnings, they usually don't back those out, so I use price-to-sales as a metric.\nBiogen is trading at least after Monday's, after Monday's jump, it was at 4.9 price-to-sales ratio. Last time it traded at that level was in the 2018, 2019 time frame, and at that point, revenue was hovering around 10% growth.\nTo justify this price-to-sales ratio, you have to expect that sales are going to grow by 10% per year. Revenue was $13.45 billion in 2020. You need to get to $14.8 billion to get to that 10% growth. Guidance for next year is for it to drop to $10.45 billion to $10.75 billion, and they had already factored in modest revenue from Aduhelm in 2021.\nAt the high end, Biogen needs $4 billion in sales to justify the current valuation. Four billion would be completely reasonable for an Alzheimer's disease drug, and $10 billion would probably be reasonable, but that would be a drug that actually helps patients. As we've said, there's not enough data to know whether Aduhelm actually helps patients.\nMedicare, they've got the drug approved so that's good, but they need to get the doctors to prescribe it, and they need to get insurers to cover it. Medicare will probably cover it, but it's an infused product and that means it's covered under Medicare Part B, B as in boy, not D as in drugs. That comes with a 20% copay after reaching the deductible. We're talking about $10,000 for the patients they're going to have to pay on the drug. That's going to really limit sales.\nIf you want to look at it at a different way, if you assume the valuation already factors in the fall to around $10.5 billion and then you are looking for 10% growth from there, now you only need $1 billion or so in sales to justify that growth. Maybe that seems a little more doable, but then that assumes that the revenue from the multiple sclerosis drugs, Tecfidera and Rituxan, that are causing the drop this year, and that you have to assume that's going to just stop.\nI don't think that's going to stop, so that means either they're going to generate more than $1 billion to justify 10% growth from 2021-2022. Very long story short, I have a hard time seeing the value of investing at this level.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIIB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":160792772,"gmtCreate":1623805993396,"gmtModify":1634027899314,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574855965218634","authorIdStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160792772","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167293864,"gmtCreate":1624268728758,"gmtModify":1634008653579,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574855965218634","authorIdStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167293864","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160794507,"gmtCreate":1623806013709,"gmtModify":1634027897672,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574855965218634","authorIdStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160794507","repostId":"1181055193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121383065,"gmtCreate":1624453907057,"gmtModify":1634005949864,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574855965218634","authorIdStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121383065","repostId":"1124251862","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121319524,"gmtCreate":1624453520368,"gmtModify":1634005957011,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574855965218634","authorIdStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sure&nbsp;","listText":"Sure&nbsp;","text":"Sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121319524","repostId":"1146629706","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146629706","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624449285,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146629706?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146629706","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stock futures are bouncing between small gains and losses, indicating a quiet opening.\nBitcoin, ethe","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures are bouncing between small gains and losses, indicating a quiet opening.</li>  <li>Bitcoin, ethereum and other crypto currenciesrose Wednesday after a tumultous few daysof trading. The SEC meanwhile,delayed a decision about allowing bitcoin ETFs.</li>  <li>Crude prices hit multiyear highs on economic rebound hopes,with signs pointing to a stronger rebound in the U.S.than the rest of the world.</li>  <li>Torchlight Energy, a hot stock among the Reddit crowd, tumbled premarket, extending a 29% drop the day before.</li>  <li>GlaxoSmithKline, MicroStrategy, Shake Shack &amp; more made the biggest moves.</li> </ul> (June 23)&nbsp;U.S. equity futures were steady, while stocks were mixed Wednesday as investors assessed prospects for an economic recovery and continued policy support.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股指期货在小幅上涨和下跌之间反弹，表明开盘平静。</li><li>经过几天的动荡交易后，比特币、以太币和其他加密货币周三上涨。与此同时，美国证券交易委员会推迟了允许比特币ETF的决定。</li><li>由于经济反弹的希望，原油价格触及多年高点，有迹象表明美国的反弹力度强于世界其他地区。</li><li>Reddit人群中的热门股票Torchlight Energy盘前暴跌，延续前一天29%的跌幅。</li><li>葛兰素史克、MicroStrategy、Shake Shack等公司动作最大。</li></ul>（6月23日）美国。周三，由于投资者评估经济复苏和持续政策支持的前景，股指期货稳定，而股市涨跌互现。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:59AM ET the Dow futures contract was up just 17 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 futures traded 0.25 points, or 0.01%, lower, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 4.25&nbsp;points, or 0.03%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午7:59，道指期货合约仅上涨17点，即0.05%，标普500期货下跌0.25点，即0.01%，纳斯达克100期货上涨4.25点，即0.03%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e352cd119b936c2cd0b2e789eff1776a\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Contracts on all three U.S. equity benchmarks were little changed, after two days of gains for the S&amp;P 500 Index. European equities fell despite better-than-forecast outputdata, after high-flying sectors such as luxury-goods makersslidon analyst downgrades. Asian equities advanced.</p><p><blockquote>在标普500指数连续两天上涨后，所有三个美国股市基准的合约几乎没有变化。尽管产出数据好于预期，但在奢侈品制造商等高速发展的行业被分析师下调评级后，欧洲股市仍下跌。亚洲股市上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Oil climbed above $73 a barrel after data signaling another decline in U.S. crude stockpiles added to a bullish outlook.</p><p><blockquote>数据显示美国原油库存再次下降，增加了看涨前景，油价攀升至每桶73美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/292b831ab7a8ddca43fdc5432203af34\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Markets are steadying this week after last week’s volatility spurred by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt at its meeting. Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday said the central bank would be patient in waiting to lift borrowing costs, andreiteratedthat while price increases are bigger than expected, they will likely wane.</p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储在会议上的鹰派倾向引发的波动之后，市场本周趋于稳定。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二表示，央行将耐心等待提高借贷成本，并重申，虽然物价涨幅大于预期，但可能会减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s shift last week to acknowledge higher inflation and pull forward its rate hike projections is “a reflection of more positive longer-term dynamics,” BlackRock Investment Institute strategists led by Jean Boivin wrote in a report. “We believe the Fed’s new outlook will not translate into significantly higher policy rates any time soon. This, combined with the powerful restart, underpins our pro-risk stance.”</p><p><blockquote>以Jean Boivin为首的贝莱德投资研究所策略师在一份报告中写道，美联储上周转向承认通胀上升并提前加息预测，“反映了更积极的长期动态”。“我们认为，美联储的新前景不会很快转化为大幅提高的政策利率。这一点，再加上强有力的重启，支撑了我们的亲风险立场。”</blockquote></p><p> Elsewhere, commodities including copper and iron ore climbed.Bitcoinrebounded, rising past $30,000.</p><p><blockquote>其他方面，铜和铁矿石等大宗商品上涨。比特币反弹，升至30,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: GlaxoSmithKline, MicroStrategy, Shake Shack &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：葛兰素史克、MicroStrategy、Shake Shack等</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;GlaxoSmithKline(GSK) </b>– The drugmaker’s stock rose 3.5% in the premarket after it detailed plans to spin out its consumer health-care business into a separate company. Glaxo will eventually receive an $11 billion payment from the new company.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）葛兰素史克（GSK）</b>-该制药商详细计划将其消费者医疗保健业务分拆为一家独立公司后，其股价在盘前上涨3.5%。葛兰素史克最终将从新公司获得110亿美元的付款。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;MicroStrategy(MSTR)</b> – MicroStrategy rallied 4.4% in premarket trading, trading in sync with the price of bitcoin. The business analytics company holds several billion dollars worth of bitcoin and took advantage of the recent price drop to buy more.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）MicroStrategy（MSTR）</b>-MicroStrategy在盘前交易中上涨4.4%，与比特币的价格同步。这家商业分析公司持有价值数十亿美元的比特币，并利用最近价格下跌的机会购买了更多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Shake Shack(SHAK) </b>– Shake Shack announced an expansion of its footprint in China, where it currently has 16 restaurants. It will open 10 restaurants in new territories by 2031, and plans to have a total of 79 China locations by that time. Shake Shack gained 1.5% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）摇摇小屋（SHAK）</b>-Shake Shack宣布扩大其在中国的足迹，目前在中国拥有16家餐厅。它将于2031年前在新界开设10家餐厅，并计划届时在中国的分店总数为79家。Shake Shack在盘前上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Winnebago(WGO) </b>– The recreational vehicle maker reported quarterly earnings of $2.16 per share, well above the consensus estimate of $1.77 a share. Revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts by doubling to record levels. Sales of towable products nearly tripled from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）温尼贝戈（WGO）</b>-这家休闲车制造商公布的季度收益为每股2.16美元，远高于每股1.77美元的普遍预期。收入也超出了华尔街的预期，翻了一番，达到创纪录的水平。可牵引产品的销量同比增长近两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Microsoft(MSFT) </b>– Microsoft became the second company to surpass a $2 trillion market value, achieving that mark during Tuesday’s session.Apple(AAPL), currently worth $2.2 trillion, was the first.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）微软（MSFT）</b>–微软成为第二家市值突破2万亿美元的公司，并在周二的交易中实现了这一大关。目前市值2.2万亿美元的苹果(AAPL)是第一家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Carrier Global(CARR)</b> – Carrier shares rose 1.9% in the premarket after the stock was rated “buy” in new coverage at Deutsche Bank. The industrial equipment maker is poised to benefit from its exposure to non-residential construction as well as an increasing emphasis on indoor air quality, according to Deutsche Bank.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)Carrier Global(CARR)</b>-在德意志银行的新报道中，开利股价被评为“买入”后，该股盘前上涨1.9%。德意志银行表示，这家工业设备制造商将受益于其对非住宅建筑的投资以及对室内空气质量的日益重视。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Amazon.com(AMZN) </b>– Amazon will bethe target of a nationwide unionization effortby the Teamsters Union, which accuses the retail giant of mistreating warehouse and logistics workers. The effort was announced in a resolution presented at the union’s international convention.</p><p><blockquote><b>7)亚马逊。com(AMZN)</b>-亚马逊将成为卡车司机工会在全国范围内成立工会的目标，该工会指责这家零售巨头虐待仓库和物流工人。这项努力是在联盟国际大会上提交的一项决议中宣布的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Intel(INTC)</b> – The semiconductor maker is creating two new business units, one that will focus on software and the other on high-performance computing and graphics.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）英特尔（INTC）</b>-这家半导体制造商正在创建两个新的业务部门，一个专注于软件，另一个专注于高性能计算和图形。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL)</b> – Alphabet’s Google unit will soon face a lawsuit by a number of state attorneys general, according to a Reuters report. The suit – which could be filed as soon as next week – will accuse the company’s Google Play app store of violating antitrust law.</p><p><blockquote><b>9）Alphabet（GOOGL）</b>——据路透社报道，Alphabet的谷歌部门很快将面临多位州总检察长的诉讼。该诉讼最早可能于下周提起，将指控该公司的Google Play应用商店违反反垄断法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Xpeng(XPEV) </b>– Xpeng received permission from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering there, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that the China-based electric car maker is planning to raise up to $2 billion with that offering. Xpeng is already listed in the U.S. with a market value of more than $30 billion. Xpeng jumped 3.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>10）小鹏汽车（XPEV）</b>-小鹏汽车获得香港联交所首次公开募股的许可，据《华尔街日报》报道，这家中国电动汽车制造商计划通过此次发行筹集至多20亿美元。小鹏汽车已经在美国上市，市值超过300亿美元。小鹏汽车盘前上涨3.8%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 19:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures are bouncing between small gains and losses, indicating a quiet opening.</li>  <li>Bitcoin, ethereum and other crypto currenciesrose Wednesday after a tumultous few daysof trading. The SEC meanwhile,delayed a decision about allowing bitcoin ETFs.</li>  <li>Crude prices hit multiyear highs on economic rebound hopes,with signs pointing to a stronger rebound in the U.S.than the rest of the world.</li>  <li>Torchlight Energy, a hot stock among the Reddit crowd, tumbled premarket, extending a 29% drop the day before.</li>  <li>GlaxoSmithKline, MicroStrategy, Shake Shack &amp; more made the biggest moves.</li> </ul> (June 23)&nbsp;U.S. equity futures were steady, while stocks were mixed Wednesday as investors assessed prospects for an economic recovery and continued policy support.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股指期货在小幅上涨和下跌之间反弹，表明开盘平静。</li><li>经过几天的动荡交易后，比特币、以太币和其他加密货币周三上涨。与此同时，美国证券交易委员会推迟了允许比特币ETF的决定。</li><li>由于经济反弹的希望，原油价格触及多年高点，有迹象表明美国的反弹力度强于世界其他地区。</li><li>Reddit人群中的热门股票Torchlight Energy盘前暴跌，延续前一天29%的跌幅。</li><li>葛兰素史克、MicroStrategy、Shake Shack等公司动作最大。</li></ul>（6月23日）美国。周三，由于投资者评估经济复苏和持续政策支持的前景，股指期货稳定，而股市涨跌互现。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:59AM ET the Dow futures contract was up just 17 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 futures traded 0.25 points, or 0.01%, lower, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 4.25&nbsp;points, or 0.03%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午7:59，道指期货合约仅上涨17点，即0.05%，标普500期货下跌0.25点，即0.01%，纳斯达克100期货上涨4.25点，即0.03%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e352cd119b936c2cd0b2e789eff1776a\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Contracts on all three U.S. equity benchmarks were little changed, after two days of gains for the S&amp;P 500 Index. European equities fell despite better-than-forecast outputdata, after high-flying sectors such as luxury-goods makersslidon analyst downgrades. Asian equities advanced.</p><p><blockquote>在标普500指数连续两天上涨后，所有三个美国股市基准的合约几乎没有变化。尽管产出数据好于预期，但在奢侈品制造商等高速发展的行业被分析师下调评级后，欧洲股市仍下跌。亚洲股市上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Oil climbed above $73 a barrel after data signaling another decline in U.S. crude stockpiles added to a bullish outlook.</p><p><blockquote>数据显示美国原油库存再次下降，增加了看涨前景，油价攀升至每桶73美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/292b831ab7a8ddca43fdc5432203af34\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Markets are steadying this week after last week’s volatility spurred by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt at its meeting. Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday said the central bank would be patient in waiting to lift borrowing costs, andreiteratedthat while price increases are bigger than expected, they will likely wane.</p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储在会议上的鹰派倾向引发的波动之后，市场本周趋于稳定。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二表示，央行将耐心等待提高借贷成本，并重申，虽然物价涨幅大于预期，但可能会减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s shift last week to acknowledge higher inflation and pull forward its rate hike projections is “a reflection of more positive longer-term dynamics,” BlackRock Investment Institute strategists led by Jean Boivin wrote in a report. “We believe the Fed’s new outlook will not translate into significantly higher policy rates any time soon. This, combined with the powerful restart, underpins our pro-risk stance.”</p><p><blockquote>以Jean Boivin为首的贝莱德投资研究所策略师在一份报告中写道，美联储上周转向承认通胀上升并提前加息预测，“反映了更积极的长期动态”。“我们认为，美联储的新前景不会很快转化为大幅提高的政策利率。这一点，再加上强有力的重启，支撑了我们的亲风险立场。”</blockquote></p><p> Elsewhere, commodities including copper and iron ore climbed.Bitcoinrebounded, rising past $30,000.</p><p><blockquote>其他方面，铜和铁矿石等大宗商品上涨。比特币反弹，升至30,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: GlaxoSmithKline, MicroStrategy, Shake Shack &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：葛兰素史克、MicroStrategy、Shake Shack等</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;GlaxoSmithKline(GSK) </b>– The drugmaker’s stock rose 3.5% in the premarket after it detailed plans to spin out its consumer health-care business into a separate company. Glaxo will eventually receive an $11 billion payment from the new company.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）葛兰素史克（GSK）</b>-该制药商详细计划将其消费者医疗保健业务分拆为一家独立公司后，其股价在盘前上涨3.5%。葛兰素史克最终将从新公司获得110亿美元的付款。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;MicroStrategy(MSTR)</b> – MicroStrategy rallied 4.4% in premarket trading, trading in sync with the price of bitcoin. The business analytics company holds several billion dollars worth of bitcoin and took advantage of the recent price drop to buy more.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）MicroStrategy（MSTR）</b>-MicroStrategy在盘前交易中上涨4.4%，与比特币的价格同步。这家商业分析公司持有价值数十亿美元的比特币，并利用最近价格下跌的机会购买了更多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Shake Shack(SHAK) </b>– Shake Shack announced an expansion of its footprint in China, where it currently has 16 restaurants. It will open 10 restaurants in new territories by 2031, and plans to have a total of 79 China locations by that time. Shake Shack gained 1.5% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）摇摇小屋（SHAK）</b>-Shake Shack宣布扩大其在中国的足迹，目前在中国拥有16家餐厅。它将于2031年前在新界开设10家餐厅，并计划届时在中国的分店总数为79家。Shake Shack在盘前上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Winnebago(WGO) </b>– The recreational vehicle maker reported quarterly earnings of $2.16 per share, well above the consensus estimate of $1.77 a share. Revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts by doubling to record levels. Sales of towable products nearly tripled from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）温尼贝戈（WGO）</b>-这家休闲车制造商公布的季度收益为每股2.16美元，远高于每股1.77美元的普遍预期。收入也超出了华尔街的预期，翻了一番，达到创纪录的水平。可牵引产品的销量同比增长近两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Microsoft(MSFT) </b>– Microsoft became the second company to surpass a $2 trillion market value, achieving that mark during Tuesday’s session.Apple(AAPL), currently worth $2.2 trillion, was the first.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）微软（MSFT）</b>–微软成为第二家市值突破2万亿美元的公司，并在周二的交易中实现了这一大关。目前市值2.2万亿美元的苹果(AAPL)是第一家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Carrier Global(CARR)</b> – Carrier shares rose 1.9% in the premarket after the stock was rated “buy” in new coverage at Deutsche Bank. The industrial equipment maker is poised to benefit from its exposure to non-residential construction as well as an increasing emphasis on indoor air quality, according to Deutsche Bank.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)Carrier Global(CARR)</b>-在德意志银行的新报道中，开利股价被评为“买入”后，该股盘前上涨1.9%。德意志银行表示，这家工业设备制造商将受益于其对非住宅建筑的投资以及对室内空气质量的日益重视。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Amazon.com(AMZN) </b>– Amazon will bethe target of a nationwide unionization effortby the Teamsters Union, which accuses the retail giant of mistreating warehouse and logistics workers. The effort was announced in a resolution presented at the union’s international convention.</p><p><blockquote><b>7)亚马逊。com(AMZN)</b>-亚马逊将成为卡车司机工会在全国范围内成立工会的目标，该工会指责这家零售巨头虐待仓库和物流工人。这项努力是在联盟国际大会上提交的一项决议中宣布的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Intel(INTC)</b> – The semiconductor maker is creating two new business units, one that will focus on software and the other on high-performance computing and graphics.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）英特尔（INTC）</b>-这家半导体制造商正在创建两个新的业务部门，一个专注于软件，另一个专注于高性能计算和图形。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL)</b> – Alphabet’s Google unit will soon face a lawsuit by a number of state attorneys general, according to a Reuters report. The suit – which could be filed as soon as next week – will accuse the company’s Google Play app store of violating antitrust law.</p><p><blockquote><b>9）Alphabet（GOOGL）</b>——据路透社报道，Alphabet的谷歌部门很快将面临多位州总检察长的诉讼。该诉讼最早可能于下周提起，将指控该公司的Google Play应用商店违反反垄断法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Xpeng(XPEV) </b>– Xpeng received permission from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering there, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that the China-based electric car maker is planning to raise up to $2 billion with that offering. Xpeng is already listed in the U.S. with a market value of more than $30 billion. Xpeng jumped 3.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>10）小鹏汽车（XPEV）</b>-小鹏汽车获得香港联交所首次公开募股的许可，据《华尔街日报》报道，这家中国电动汽车制造商计划通过此次发行筹集至多20亿美元。小鹏汽车已经在美国上市，市值超过300亿美元。小鹏汽车盘前上涨3.8%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146629706","content_text":"Stock futures are bouncing between small gains and losses, indicating a quiet opening.\nBitcoin, ethereum and other crypto currenciesrose Wednesday after a tumultous few daysof trading. The SEC meanwhile,delayed a decision about allowing bitcoin ETFs.\nCrude prices hit multiyear highs on economic rebound hopes,with signs pointing to a stronger rebound in the U.S.than the rest of the world.\nTorchlight Energy, a hot stock among the Reddit crowd, tumbled premarket, extending a 29% drop the day before.\nGlaxoSmithKline, MicroStrategy, Shake Shack & more made the biggest moves.\n\n(June 23) U.S. equity futures were steady, while stocks were mixed Wednesday as investors assessed prospects for an economic recovery and continued policy support.\nAt 7:59AM ET the Dow futures contract was up just 17 points, or 0.05%, S&P 500 futures traded 0.25 points, or 0.01%, lower, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 4.25 points, or 0.03%.\n\nContracts on all three U.S. equity benchmarks were little changed, after two days of gains for the S&P 500 Index. European equities fell despite better-than-forecast outputdata, after high-flying sectors such as luxury-goods makersslidon analyst downgrades. Asian equities advanced.\nOil climbed above $73 a barrel after data signaling another decline in U.S. crude stockpiles added to a bullish outlook.\n\nMarkets are steadying this week after last week’s volatility spurred by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt at its meeting. Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday said the central bank would be patient in waiting to lift borrowing costs, andreiteratedthat while price increases are bigger than expected, they will likely wane.\nThe Fed’s shift last week to acknowledge higher inflation and pull forward its rate hike projections is “a reflection of more positive longer-term dynamics,” BlackRock Investment Institute strategists led by Jean Boivin wrote in a report. “We believe the Fed’s new outlook will not translate into significantly higher policy rates any time soon. This, combined with the powerful restart, underpins our pro-risk stance.”\nElsewhere, commodities including copper and iron ore climbed.Bitcoinrebounded, rising past $30,000.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: GlaxoSmithKline, MicroStrategy, Shake Shack & more\n1) GlaxoSmithKline(GSK) – The drugmaker’s stock rose 3.5% in the premarket after it detailed plans to spin out its consumer health-care business into a separate company. Glaxo will eventually receive an $11 billion payment from the new company.\n2) MicroStrategy(MSTR) – MicroStrategy rallied 4.4% in premarket trading, trading in sync with the price of bitcoin. The business analytics company holds several billion dollars worth of bitcoin and took advantage of the recent price drop to buy more.\n3) Shake Shack(SHAK) – Shake Shack announced an expansion of its footprint in China, where it currently has 16 restaurants. It will open 10 restaurants in new territories by 2031, and plans to have a total of 79 China locations by that time. Shake Shack gained 1.5% in premarket action.\n4) Winnebago(WGO) – The recreational vehicle maker reported quarterly earnings of $2.16 per share, well above the consensus estimate of $1.77 a share. Revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts by doubling to record levels. Sales of towable products nearly tripled from a year earlier.\n5) Microsoft(MSFT) – Microsoft became the second company to surpass a $2 trillion market value, achieving that mark during Tuesday’s session.Apple(AAPL), currently worth $2.2 trillion, was the first.\n6) Carrier Global(CARR) – Carrier shares rose 1.9% in the premarket after the stock was rated “buy” in new coverage at Deutsche Bank. The industrial equipment maker is poised to benefit from its exposure to non-residential construction as well as an increasing emphasis on indoor air quality, according to Deutsche Bank.\n7) Amazon.com(AMZN) – Amazon will bethe target of a nationwide unionization effortby the Teamsters Union, which accuses the retail giant of mistreating warehouse and logistics workers. The effort was announced in a resolution presented at the union’s international convention.\n8) Intel(INTC) – The semiconductor maker is creating two new business units, one that will focus on software and the other on high-performance computing and graphics.\n9) Alphabet(GOOGL) – Alphabet’s Google unit will soon face a lawsuit by a number of state attorneys general, according to a Reuters report. The suit – which could be filed as soon as next week – will accuse the company’s Google Play app store of violating antitrust law.\n10) Xpeng(XPEV) – Xpeng received permission from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an initial public offering there, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that the China-based electric car maker is planning to raise up to $2 billion with that offering. Xpeng is already listed in the U.S. with a market value of more than $30 billion. Xpeng jumped 3.8% in the premarket.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167293701,"gmtCreate":1624268753703,"gmtModify":1634008653084,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574855965218634","authorIdStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167293701","repostId":"1109875362","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162710704,"gmtCreate":1624075352408,"gmtModify":1634011012145,"author":{"id":"3574855965218634","authorId":"3574855965218634","name":"Bangaram","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c26643528d1c3fdd083336c2454f51e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574855965218634","authorIdStr":"3574855965218634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162710704","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. 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