Nickmons的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Nickmons

Nickmons

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

199关注

8粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-02-21

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-17

Again.

What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>

2021-03-01

Bullish ahead?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-22

Bullish ahead

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-17

Consistanly bullish..good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-30

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-19

good..

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-03

Bull market dor this month..

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-19

Good

1 Stock Warren Buffett and Cathie Wood Have in Common and 1 They Should<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特和凯西·伍德共有1只股票，他们应该有1只股票</blockquote>

2021-03-13

Bullish ahead Tesla bearish?

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3574772553430673","uuid":"3574772553430673","gmtCreate":1611681309024,"gmtModify":1613569429615,"name":"Nickmons","pinyin":"nickmons","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":8,"headSize":199,"tweetSize":19,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.06.11","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":167678876,"gmtCreate":1624267789595,"gmtModify":1631890565769,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167678876","repostId":"1107200738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107200738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624266640,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107200738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并盈利</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107200738","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTwilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Twilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.</li>  <li>Meanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.</li>  <li>As a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.</li>  <li>At its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c999acf1acd79840514a42f3c4521\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Twilio被误解为一只只受益于COVID-19顺风的股票，当重新开业成为中心舞台时，它就会失败。</li><li>与此同时，该公司通过多项关键收购继续增强实力，其中该部门交易最为重要。</li><li>由于第三方cookies的弃用，公司可能会更加需要Twilio。</li><li>按照目前的估值和133%的高DBNER，投资者应该利用最近的价格疲软立即进入Twilio。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格雷尔/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsInvestment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者误解了Twilio(TWLO)的商业模式，因为它无法盈利，尽管它实现了行业领先的收入增长指标。虽然该公司可能尚未实现息税前利润，但在收购了全球排名第一的客户数据平台[CDP]后，该公司正在将自己打造成拥有一流客户参与平台的CPaaS领导者：Segment。投资者现在应该明白，推动数字化的长期顺风不会逆转，因此TWLO作为满足全球客户参与需求的平台，处于有利地位。再加上第三方cookies即将被弃用，公司可能会发现TWLO在他们未来的客户参与工作中更加重要。按照目前的估值，投资者应该会发现TWLO的估值实际上可能低于SaaS领域上市的许多股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Twilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Twilio不是典型的SaaS股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec3449de8bbaa50dabd8b4343c41583\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DBNER. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DBNER.数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Twilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER&nbsp;“increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”</p><p><blockquote>Twilio作为CPaaS的价值主张与典型的SaaS公司不同，典型的SaaS公司通过定期订阅来充分利用其收入，并通过交叉销售到其他产品或通过占据更多席位来增加或维持其DBNER或DBNRR。TWLO的收入主要基于使用量。因此，当客户更多地使用其平台时，公司会获得更多收入，而当客户更少使用平台时，公司会获得更少收入。因此，由于它是基于使用情况的，我们只需观察其DBNER趋势就可以轻松确定其客户的使用强度。TWLO的DBNER“当此类活跃客户帐户增加对产品的使用、将产品的使用扩展到新应用程序时，Twilio基于美元的净扩张率就会下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a&nbsp;normalized DBNER in the range of 130s&nbsp;moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们可以从TWLO强劲的DBNER趋势中清楚地观察到，多年来，其客户对其平台的净使用量一直在不断增加，这实际上在COVID-19袭击之前就已经开始了。TWLO的DBNER也基本保持一致，该公司也有信心在130秒范围内实现标准化DBNER。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a&nbsp;recent article on Teladoc&nbsp;(TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司还强调，其平台在许多行业的用例继续增加，特别是在远程医疗领域，这是另一个被错误地认为只是COVID-19现象的市场，没有可持续性。我们之前曾在Teladoc(TDOC)最近的一篇文章中介绍过为什么远程医疗的快速增长早在大流行爆发之前就开始了，并且仍处于增长阶段的早期，因为该市场预计在未来的CAGR增长率将超过20%10年。因此，推动许多不同行业数字化的长期顺风也将推动TWLO作为市场领先的云通信和客户参与平台的业务增加。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ecc737bf53e45f2b6a58e0d2121279\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR。资料来源：原子财经</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses&nbsp;usage-based pricing: Snowflake&nbsp;(SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.</p><p><blockquote>当我们放眼SaaS空间时尤其如此。投资者很难找到许多像TWLO（中位数：120%）这样的NRR始终高于130%的公司。另一家同样采用基于使用量定价的公司：Snowflake(SNOW)最近一个季度的NRR为168%。投资者可能认为，如果客户使用率大幅下降，这些采用基于使用率定价的公司可能会遭受损失。然而，TWLO和SNOW都证明了他们的平台是如此具有粘性，并提供了如此多的价值，以至于一旦你使用它，随着时间的推移，你会越来越多地使用它，并将使用扩展到新产品中。因此，随着用例的不断增加，这种基于使用情况的定价模式对公司的营收具有固有的强大推动力，如果没有基于使用情况的模型，典型的基于订阅的ARR模式可能无法复制这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场确实低估了Segment的收购</b></blockquote></p><p> In our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the&nbsp;No.1 CDP worldwide&nbsp;ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，市场确实低估了Segment对TWLO的收购。首先，Segment是IDC排名的全球第一的CDP，因此我们认为TWLO在那里做了一笔惊人的交易。事实上，该公司强调了他们认为此次收购对他们来说有多重要（我们强调）：</blockquote></p><p>   We think the&nbsp;  <b>industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam</b>. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience.  Notwithstanding the&nbsp;significant dilution&nbsp;funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为<b>Segment plus Twilio的工业逻辑只是一个——这不仅仅是一个本垒打。这是个大满贯</b>.我认为对我们来说，将数据能力与通信能力结合起来对于提供丰富的客户体验是绝对必要的。尽管大部分股权交易的资金大幅稀释，但我认为投资者应该了解在其投资组合中拥有同类最佳CDP的战略重要性，这对于TWLO的基础CPaaS产品至关重要，因为它现在为客户提供了访问权限通过跨不同系统的统一视图进行实时分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfb70f9acdfe008ff26825a2894a4c7\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"544\"><span>Level of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CDP对成功指标的影响程度。数据来源：广告主感知；珍藏数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.</p><p><blockquote>从上述对不同行业的营销人员进行的调查中，我们可以观察到在他们的营销KPI中加入CDP的深远影响。绝大多数受访者指出，本次调查中列出的所有指标都有所改善，其中非常高比例的受访者（33%至45%）表示各自类别有“显著改善”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908f65bb3623fd3ba2b147e803f8e7\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"520\"><span>Benefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>营销技术决策者认为CDP的好处。数据来源：广告主感知；统一的</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”</p><p><blockquote>此外，49%的受访者还表示，CDP允许他们跨多个来源统一数据，他们认为这是最重要的好处。Twilio还强调了这一点的重要性，并补充说：“消费者不再仅仅局限于一种沟通形式，他们希望公司能够将不同的互动结合在一起，根据他们正在做的事情提供日益个性化的内容——随时随地，并通过他们喜欢的渠道。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc20b41946569e8afa10fb1ef39a90f\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"768\"><span>Measures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国营销人员为应对第三方cookies弃用的影响而采取的措施。数据来源：Epsilon；广告周刊；Phronesis合作伙伴</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use&nbsp;first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is&nbsp;least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着第三方cookies即将被弃用，营销人员一直在寻找缓解这种损失影响的方法，其中大多数人（67.3%）一直在建立CDP。CDP主要收集和使用第一方数据，这确实是最重要的客户数据来源，因为它提供了最准确和可操作的见解，也是最不容易受到隐私法规影响的来源，这一点也得到了TWLO的认可当被问及TWLO是否因其第一方数据访问而看到隐私法规的任何推动力时，该公司回答道：</blockquote></p><p>   100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes.  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f2d9eb714512b81b6ae70b957a82d4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Share of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp</span></p><p><blockquote>100%.我认为你说到点子上了，实际上有效地回答了你自己的问题。我认为他们在这件事上非常正确。我的意思是他们是非常非常强大的数据管家。他们是一家隐私第一的公司。我认为即使在欧盟，地球动力学的一些趋势也对他们有利。因此，我确实认为数据和数据监管对他们来说是一个潜在的推动力，是的。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国与他人合作共享第一方数据的组织份额数据来源：Winterberry Group；LiveRamp</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步强调第一方数据的重要性，我们可以看到64.3%的公司有共享第一方数据的协作安排，而16.7%的公司有这样做的计划。在后cookie时代，我相信组织甚至需要在数据收集和分析工作中更加积极主动，拥有一个类似CDP的部门来帮助这一点绝对至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是的，我们知道公司还没有盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2871e7911997921fe11150b8d0e30\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"734\"><span>EBIT margin, SG&amp;A margin, R&amp;D margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&amp;A and R&amp;D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:</p><p><blockquote>然而，应该提醒投资者，TWLO尚未实现营业利润，尽管该公司已将长期营业利润率定为28%。投资者应该明白，TWLO也不会很快实现营业利润，因为该公司仍处于大量投资模式（从其较高的SG&amp;A和R&amp;D利润率可以看出），因为它看到了很多投资机会，也可能收购，该公司已进行了多项备受瞩目的收购，如Segment、ValueFirst、Syniverse、Zipwhip等。公司极力强调了这一点：</blockquote></p><p>   But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen.  Therefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.</p><p><blockquote>但这并不意味着我们不会盈利，不可能盈利。我的意思是，我们的增长水平非常高，如果你愿意的话，肯定比我们公司的平均水平要好。只是我们其他的业务增长真的很快，对吧？因此，根据我们目前的轨迹，为了让它真正出现在我们的财务状况中，其他事情必须放缓，这不是我们想要的。这不是你想要的。这不是任何人真正想要的，对吗？所以我认为在适当的时候，所有这些事情都会发生。因此，要求TWLO投资者表现出极大的耐心，给TWLO时间实现盈利，并允许他们首先继续扩大收入增长。市场普遍预测，该公司21财年将继续快速增长，同比增长约44.5%，随后同比增长也将超过30%。TWLO还承诺在未来四年内将其收入增长30%以上，因此投资者需要给TWLO时间来交付货物，因此这只股票不适合寻求2至3年期限的短期投资者，或者一家将盈利能力置于增长之上的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1059052c9408212d41ace9bed94cdd4a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"698\"><span>Revenue metrics. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>收入指标。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd552d195006ab4d2b5bb01567a6fdf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\"><span>SaaS EV / 2021 Rev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS EV/2021修订版。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77dea7178c4b94d74a75bc24aab22561\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>TWLO EV/Fwd修订版数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑TWLO的EV/FY+1倍数为20.6倍，而SaaS的中位数为26.3倍时，可以合理地认为TWLO看起来并不昂贵。同样值得注意的是，TWLO预计也将快速增长，我们预计其市盈率将随着时间的推移大幅下降（假设其电动汽车保持不变，如果TWLO继续实现其高增长战略，当然不太可能出现这种情况）。我们非常确定，SaaS领域还有更多公司的估值更高，但预期收入增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f626c7ad165f68d36e614c8163606c2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为TWLO总体上具有强烈的长期上升趋势偏差，这种偏差在过去3年中仅被COVID-19熊市打断过一次。价格最近在300美元左右的50W移动平均线上找到了支撑，此后价格逐渐从最近的暴跌中恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Although we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们更希望在300美元支撑位附近加仓，但我们也不认为当前价格水平昂贵，并认为投资者可以考虑在当前价格水平发起或加仓。然而，他们应该避免在405美元水平附近增加，因为我们认为该水平应该有近期阻力。此外，对于喜欢小幅逢低的投资者来说，您可以等到下一次回撤再次测试50W支撑位，其中也有可能增加320美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Twilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio是一只增长非常高的股票，它已将收入增长作为目前最重要的优先事项，因为它看到了未来巨大的增长机会。投资者被要求给TWLO时间来实现其预期的长期盈利能力，因为该公司将自己打造成多个行业公司云通信和客户参与领域的领先企业。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并盈利</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并盈利</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 17:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Twilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.</li>  <li>Meanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.</li>  <li>As a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.</li>  <li>At its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c999acf1acd79840514a42f3c4521\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Twilio被误解为一只只受益于COVID-19顺风的股票，当重新开业成为中心舞台时，它就会失败。</li><li>与此同时，该公司通过多项关键收购继续增强实力，其中该部门交易最为重要。</li><li>由于第三方cookies的弃用，公司可能会更加需要Twilio。</li><li>按照目前的估值和133%的高DBNER，投资者应该利用最近的价格疲软立即进入Twilio。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格雷尔/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsInvestment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者误解了Twilio(TWLO)的商业模式，因为它无法盈利，尽管它实现了行业领先的收入增长指标。虽然该公司可能尚未实现息税前利润，但在收购了全球排名第一的客户数据平台[CDP]后，该公司正在将自己打造成拥有一流客户参与平台的CPaaS领导者：Segment。投资者现在应该明白，推动数字化的长期顺风不会逆转，因此TWLO作为满足全球客户参与需求的平台，处于有利地位。再加上第三方cookies即将被弃用，公司可能会发现TWLO在他们未来的客户参与工作中更加重要。按照目前的估值，投资者应该会发现TWLO的估值实际上可能低于SaaS领域上市的许多股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Twilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Twilio不是典型的SaaS股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec3449de8bbaa50dabd8b4343c41583\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DBNER. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DBNER.数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Twilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER&nbsp;“increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”</p><p><blockquote>Twilio作为CPaaS的价值主张与典型的SaaS公司不同，典型的SaaS公司通过定期订阅来充分利用其收入，并通过交叉销售到其他产品或通过占据更多席位来增加或维持其DBNER或DBNRR。TWLO的收入主要基于使用量。因此，当客户更多地使用其平台时，公司会获得更多收入，而当客户更少使用平台时，公司会获得更少收入。因此，由于它是基于使用情况的，我们只需观察其DBNER趋势就可以轻松确定其客户的使用强度。TWLO的DBNER“当此类活跃客户帐户增加对产品的使用、将产品的使用扩展到新应用程序时，Twilio基于美元的净扩张率就会下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a&nbsp;normalized DBNER in the range of 130s&nbsp;moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们可以从TWLO强劲的DBNER趋势中清楚地观察到，多年来，其客户对其平台的净使用量一直在不断增加，这实际上在COVID-19袭击之前就已经开始了。TWLO的DBNER也基本保持一致，该公司也有信心在130秒范围内实现标准化DBNER。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a&nbsp;recent article on Teladoc&nbsp;(TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司还强调，其平台在许多行业的用例继续增加，特别是在远程医疗领域，这是另一个被错误地认为只是COVID-19现象的市场，没有可持续性。我们之前曾在Teladoc(TDOC)最近的一篇文章中介绍过为什么远程医疗的快速增长早在大流行爆发之前就开始了，并且仍处于增长阶段的早期，因为该市场预计在未来的CAGR增长率将超过20%10年。因此，推动许多不同行业数字化的长期顺风也将推动TWLO作为市场领先的云通信和客户参与平台的业务增加。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ecc737bf53e45f2b6a58e0d2121279\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR。资料来源：原子财经</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses&nbsp;usage-based pricing: Snowflake&nbsp;(SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.</p><p><blockquote>当我们放眼SaaS空间时尤其如此。投资者很难找到许多像TWLO（中位数：120%）这样的NRR始终高于130%的公司。另一家同样采用基于使用量定价的公司：Snowflake(SNOW)最近一个季度的NRR为168%。投资者可能认为，如果客户使用率大幅下降，这些采用基于使用率定价的公司可能会遭受损失。然而，TWLO和SNOW都证明了他们的平台是如此具有粘性，并提供了如此多的价值，以至于一旦你使用它，随着时间的推移，你会越来越多地使用它，并将使用扩展到新产品中。因此，随着用例的不断增加，这种基于使用情况的定价模式对公司的营收具有固有的强大推动力，如果没有基于使用情况的模型，典型的基于订阅的ARR模式可能无法复制这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场确实低估了Segment的收购</b></blockquote></p><p> In our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the&nbsp;No.1 CDP worldwide&nbsp;ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，市场确实低估了Segment对TWLO的收购。首先，Segment是IDC排名的全球第一的CDP，因此我们认为TWLO在那里做了一笔惊人的交易。事实上，该公司强调了他们认为此次收购对他们来说有多重要（我们强调）：</blockquote></p><p>   We think the&nbsp;  <b>industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam</b>. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience.  Notwithstanding the&nbsp;significant dilution&nbsp;funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为<b>Segment plus Twilio的工业逻辑只是一个——这不仅仅是一个本垒打。这是个大满贯</b>.我认为对我们来说，将数据能力与通信能力结合起来对于提供丰富的客户体验是绝对必要的。尽管大部分股权交易的资金大幅稀释，但我认为投资者应该了解在其投资组合中拥有同类最佳CDP的战略重要性，这对于TWLO的基础CPaaS产品至关重要，因为它现在为客户提供了访问权限通过跨不同系统的统一视图进行实时分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfb70f9acdfe008ff26825a2894a4c7\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"544\"><span>Level of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CDP对成功指标的影响程度。数据来源：广告主感知；珍藏数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.</p><p><blockquote>从上述对不同行业的营销人员进行的调查中，我们可以观察到在他们的营销KPI中加入CDP的深远影响。绝大多数受访者指出，本次调查中列出的所有指标都有所改善，其中非常高比例的受访者（33%至45%）表示各自类别有“显著改善”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908f65bb3623fd3ba2b147e803f8e7\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"520\"><span>Benefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>营销技术决策者认为CDP的好处。数据来源：广告主感知；统一的</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”</p><p><blockquote>此外，49%的受访者还表示，CDP允许他们跨多个来源统一数据，他们认为这是最重要的好处。Twilio还强调了这一点的重要性，并补充说：“消费者不再仅仅局限于一种沟通形式，他们希望公司能够将不同的互动结合在一起，根据他们正在做的事情提供日益个性化的内容——随时随地，并通过他们喜欢的渠道。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc20b41946569e8afa10fb1ef39a90f\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"768\"><span>Measures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国营销人员为应对第三方cookies弃用的影响而采取的措施。数据来源：Epsilon；广告周刊；Phronesis合作伙伴</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use&nbsp;first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is&nbsp;least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着第三方cookies即将被弃用，营销人员一直在寻找缓解这种损失影响的方法，其中大多数人（67.3%）一直在建立CDP。CDP主要收集和使用第一方数据，这确实是最重要的客户数据来源，因为它提供了最准确和可操作的见解，也是最不容易受到隐私法规影响的来源，这一点也得到了TWLO的认可当被问及TWLO是否因其第一方数据访问而看到隐私法规的任何推动力时，该公司回答道：</blockquote></p><p>   100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes.  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f2d9eb714512b81b6ae70b957a82d4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Share of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp</span></p><p><blockquote>100%.我认为你说到点子上了，实际上有效地回答了你自己的问题。我认为他们在这件事上非常正确。我的意思是他们是非常非常强大的数据管家。他们是一家隐私第一的公司。我认为即使在欧盟，地球动力学的一些趋势也对他们有利。因此，我确实认为数据和数据监管对他们来说是一个潜在的推动力，是的。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国与他人合作共享第一方数据的组织份额数据来源：Winterberry Group；LiveRamp</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步强调第一方数据的重要性，我们可以看到64.3%的公司有共享第一方数据的协作安排，而16.7%的公司有这样做的计划。在后cookie时代，我相信组织甚至需要在数据收集和分析工作中更加积极主动，拥有一个类似CDP的部门来帮助这一点绝对至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是的，我们知道公司还没有盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2871e7911997921fe11150b8d0e30\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"734\"><span>EBIT margin, SG&amp;A margin, R&amp;D margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&amp;A and R&amp;D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:</p><p><blockquote>然而，应该提醒投资者，TWLO尚未实现营业利润，尽管该公司已将长期营业利润率定为28%。投资者应该明白，TWLO也不会很快实现营业利润，因为该公司仍处于大量投资模式（从其较高的SG&amp;A和R&amp;D利润率可以看出），因为它看到了很多投资机会，也可能收购，该公司已进行了多项备受瞩目的收购，如Segment、ValueFirst、Syniverse、Zipwhip等。公司极力强调了这一点：</blockquote></p><p>   But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen.  Therefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.</p><p><blockquote>但这并不意味着我们不会盈利，不可能盈利。我的意思是，我们的增长水平非常高，如果你愿意的话，肯定比我们公司的平均水平要好。只是我们其他的业务增长真的很快，对吧？因此，根据我们目前的轨迹，为了让它真正出现在我们的财务状况中，其他事情必须放缓，这不是我们想要的。这不是你想要的。这不是任何人真正想要的，对吗？所以我认为在适当的时候，所有这些事情都会发生。因此，要求TWLO投资者表现出极大的耐心，给TWLO时间实现盈利，并允许他们首先继续扩大收入增长。市场普遍预测，该公司21财年将继续快速增长，同比增长约44.5%，随后同比增长也将超过30%。TWLO还承诺在未来四年内将其收入增长30%以上，因此投资者需要给TWLO时间来交付货物，因此这只股票不适合寻求2至3年期限的短期投资者，或者一家将盈利能力置于增长之上的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1059052c9408212d41ace9bed94cdd4a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"698\"><span>Revenue metrics. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>收入指标。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd552d195006ab4d2b5bb01567a6fdf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\"><span>SaaS EV / 2021 Rev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS EV/2021修订版。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77dea7178c4b94d74a75bc24aab22561\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>TWLO EV/Fwd修订版数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑TWLO的EV/FY+1倍数为20.6倍，而SaaS的中位数为26.3倍时，可以合理地认为TWLO看起来并不昂贵。同样值得注意的是，TWLO预计也将快速增长，我们预计其市盈率将随着时间的推移大幅下降（假设其电动汽车保持不变，如果TWLO继续实现其高增长战略，当然不太可能出现这种情况）。我们非常确定，SaaS领域还有更多公司的估值更高，但预期收入增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f626c7ad165f68d36e614c8163606c2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为TWLO总体上具有强烈的长期上升趋势偏差，这种偏差在过去3年中仅被COVID-19熊市打断过一次。价格最近在300美元左右的50W移动平均线上找到了支撑，此后价格逐渐从最近的暴跌中恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Although we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们更希望在300美元支撑位附近加仓，但我们也不认为当前价格水平昂贵，并认为投资者可以考虑在当前价格水平发起或加仓。然而，他们应该避免在405美元水平附近增加，因为我们认为该水平应该有近期阻力。此外，对于喜欢小幅逢低的投资者来说，您可以等到下一次回撤再次测试50W支撑位，其中也有可能增加320美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Twilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio是一只增长非常高的股票，它已将收入增长作为目前最重要的优先事项，因为它看到了未来巨大的增长机会。投资者被要求给TWLO时间来实现其预期的长期盈利能力，因为该公司将自己打造成多个行业公司云通信和客户参与领域的领先企业。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435794-twilio-investors-need-give-time-for-scale-up-and-profitable\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWLO":"Twilio Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435794-twilio-investors-need-give-time-for-scale-up-and-profitable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107200738","content_text":"Summary\n\nTwilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.\nMeanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.\nAs a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.\nAt its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.\n\nDrew Angerer/Getty Images\nNewsInvestment Thesis\nMany investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.\nTwilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock\nDBNER. Data source: Company filings\nTwilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER “increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”\nTherefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a normalized DBNER in the range of 130s moving forward.\nMoreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a recent article on Teladoc (TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.\nSaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance\nThis is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses usage-based pricing: Snowflake (SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.\nMarket Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition\nIn our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the No.1 CDP worldwide ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):\n\n We think the \n industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience.\n\nNotwithstanding the significant dilution funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.\nLevel of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data\nWe could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.\nBenefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida\nIn addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”\nMeasures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners\nMoreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:\n\n 100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes.\n\nShare of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp\nIn order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.\nYes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable\nEBIT margin, SG&A margin, R&D margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&A and R&D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:\n\n But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen.\n\nTherefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.\nRevenue metrics. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nValuations\nSaaS EV / 2021 Rev.\nTWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\n\nWe think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.\nAlthough we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.\nWrapping It All Up\nTwilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWLO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108532263,"gmtCreate":1620039664452,"gmtModify":1631890565775,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull market dor this month..","listText":"Bull market dor this month..","text":"Bull market dor this month..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108532263","repostId":"1150131567","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103810089,"gmtCreate":1619765376941,"gmtModify":1631890565775,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103810089","repostId":"1110240077","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3032,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350358505,"gmtCreate":1616162411707,"gmtModify":1631890565786,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350358505","repostId":"1190757715","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190757715","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616161968,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190757715?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 21:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Stock Warren Buffett and Cathie Wood Have in Common and 1 They Should<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特和凯西·伍德共有1只股票，他们应该有1只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190757715","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It might be a surprise to find out that two investors with virtually opposite approaches -- one who ","content":"<p>It might be a surprise to find out that two investors with virtually opposite approaches -- one who invests in large, cheap, iconic companies and the other who rose to fame on the heels of her outlandishly bullish (and accurate) predictions about \"overvalued\" stocks -- would have the same company in their portfolios. Perhaps the bigger surprise is the stock you might expect them to both own that they don't. Let's take a look at the two companies in question and what these successful investors must see.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会惊讶地发现，两个方法几乎相反的投资者——一个投资于大型、廉价、标志性的公司，另一个因她对“高估”股票的异常乐观（且准确）预测而声名鹊起——他们的投资组合中会有同一家公司。也许更大的惊喜是你可能期望他们都拥有的股票，但他们并没有。让我们来看看有问题的两家公司以及这些成功的投资者必须看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p><b>The surprising stock they both own</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他们都拥有的令人惊讶的股票</b></blockquote></p><p>First, it's doubtful that Warren Buffett actually bought<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW), the cloud data warehouse-as-a-service company. In recent years, lieutenants Todd Combs and Ted Weschler have been making more of the investment decisions, and the $750 million in stock<b>BerkshireHathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)purchased before theinitial public offering (IPO)certainly doesn't match the investment style of the legendary nonagenarian. In fact, Buffett hasn't bought an IPO since<b>Ford</b>&nbsp;in 1956. The company does fit the style of Cathie Wood at ARK Invest, a global asset management company focused on disruptive innovation. That said, Snowflake is putting up numbers that would get any investor's attention.</p><p><blockquote>首先，沃伦·巴菲特是否真的购买了值得怀疑<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），云数据仓库即服务公司。近年来，托德·库姆斯中尉和特德·韦施勒中尉一直在做出更多的投资决策，7.5亿美元的股票<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.B）在首次公开募股（IPO）之前购买的当然不符合这位传奇九十多岁老人的投资风格。事实上，巴菲特此后就没有购买过IPO<b>福特</b>1956年。该公司确实符合ARK Invest的Cathie Wood的风格，ARK Invest是一家专注于颠覆性创新的全球资产管理公司。也就是说，Snowflake提供的数据会引起任何投资者的注意。</blockquote></p><p>The company recently reported its full fiscal year earnings, and the growth was jaw-dropping. Fourth-quarter revenue of $178 million was up 116% year over year. Topping that, remaining performance obligations, what customers have signed on to buy, was up 213% over the same point last year. The company has 77 customers that spend more than $1 million per year. That number is up from 65 just three months earlier. Management is projecting between 92% and 96% revenue growth for the current year. Snowflake posted an operating margin of negative 92%. Losing money never sounds good, but that is closer to profitability than the negative 135% for the year ending January 2020 or the negative 192% in 2019. If the company really wanted to turn a profit it could just curb its spending on sales and marketing.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近公布了完整财年的收益，增长令人瞠目结舌。第四季度营收为1.78亿美元，同比增长116%。最重要的是，剩余履约义务（即客户已签署购买的商品）比去年同期增长了213%。该公司有77名每年消费超过100万美元的客户。这个数字比三个月前的65个有所上升。管理层预计今年收入增长92%至96%。Snowflake公布的营业利润率为负92%。亏损听起来从来都不是好事，但这比截至2020年1月的年度负135%或2019年的负192%更接近盈利。如果该公司真的想盈利，它可以限制销售和营销支出。</blockquote></p><p>It may not be a typical Buffett stock, but Snowflake definitely fits the mold of Wood's investments. The ARK founder has become synonymous with innovation, building a portfolio around futuristic themes such as genomics, space exploration, mobility-as-a-service, and the next-generation internet. It's the last theme, encompassing artificial intelligence and cloud computing, where Snowflake fits. The company's pay-as-you-consume, real-time access to data and analytical tools is a giant leap forward compared to the slow, bogged-down daily or weekly updates companies have long come to accept with managing their internal data warehouses.</p><p><blockquote>它可能不是典型的巴菲特股票，但雪花绝对符合伍德的投资模式。方舟创始人已成为创新的代名词，围绕基因组学、太空探索、移动即服务和下一代互联网等未来主题构建产品组合。这是最后一个主题，包括人工智能和云计算，雪花适合。与公司长期以来在管理内部数据仓库时接受的缓慢、停滞不前的每日或每周更新相比，该公司按消费付费、实时访问数据和分析工具是一个巨大的飞跃。</blockquote></p><p>Another stock in ARK's portfolio touches both the data-related and genomic revolution strategy. Based on his other holdings, it's actually surprising Buffett doesn't own it too.</p><p><blockquote>ARK投资组合中的另一只股票涉及数据相关和基因组革命战略。根据他的其他持股，巴菲特并不拥有它实际上令人惊讶。</blockquote></p><p><b>The surprising stock they don't both own</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人惊讶的是他们并不都拥有的股票</b></blockquote></p><p>The Oracle of Omaha has been buying up the stocks of pharmaceutical companies in the past year. In the third quarter of 2020 he added shares of<b>Pfizer</b>(NYSE:PFE),<b>AbbVie</b>(NYSE:ABBV),<b>Merck</b>(NYSE:MRK), and<b>BristolMyersSquibb</b>(NYSE:BMY). Every member of that group gives investors between 3% and 5% in dividends annually. Other than Bristol Myers, they all hover around a $200 billion market cap as well, and Bristol Myers is nearly as large at $136 billion. Similarly,<b>Novartis</b>(NYSE:NVS)is a $211 billion company yielding 3.8%. Perhaps the reason Buffett hasn't bought this big pharma stock is that it is a Swiss company. It turns out, Buffett favors American brands in food, cola, and apparently drugmakers.</p><p><blockquote>这位奥马哈先知在过去的一年里一直在买入制药公司的股票。2020年第三季度，他增持了<b>辉瑞</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：PFE），<b>艾伯维</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：ABBV），<b>默克</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：MRK），以及<b>百时美施贵宝</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BMY）。该集团的每个成员每年向投资者支付3%至5%的股息。除了百时美施贵宝之外，它们的市值也都徘徊在2000亿美元左右，百时美施贵宝的市值也几乎同样大，为1360亿美元。同样，<b>诺华</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NVS）是一家市值2110亿美元的公司，收益率为3.8%。也许巴菲特没有购买这家大型制药公司股票的原因是它是一家瑞士公司。事实证明，巴菲特青睐食品、可乐领域的美国品牌，显然还有制药商。</blockquote></p><p>Novartis did catch the eye of Wood, thanks to its work toward developing a leading digital and data science platform for drug discovery. Although it isn't a pure play on any of ARK's strategies, Wood considers it a deep value pick, to be held through a bull market and then sold in times of volatility to add to higher-conviction growth names that get beaten down.</p><p><blockquote>诺华确实引起了伍德的注意，这要归功于其致力于开发领先的药物发现数字和数据科学平台。尽管这并不是ARK任何策略的纯粹体现，但伍德认为这是一个深度价值选择，可以在牛市期间持有，然后在波动时期出售，以增加受到打击的信念较高的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>Portfolio juxtaposition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>组合并置</b></blockquote></p><p>It may be counterintuitive for an investor who prides himself on unemotional investing to buy into one of the hottest IPOs of last year, but once Snowflake started trading, the investment doubled almost immediately. Similarly, few would think someone famous for a $4,000 price target on<b>Tesla</b>and presentations that literally map out the future of entire industries would own a nearly 4% dividend paying pharmaceutical company with no growth. However, there is a great lesson in these examples.</p><p><blockquote>对于一个以不带感情色彩的投资为荣的投资者来说，买入去年最热门的IPO之一可能是违反直觉的，但一旦Snowflake开始交易，投资几乎立即翻了一番。同样，很少有人会认为有人以4,000美元的目标价而闻名<b>特斯拉</b>真正描绘整个行业未来的演示文稿将拥有一家支付近4%股息但没有增长的制药公司。然而，这些例子中有一个很好的教训。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Don't settle for the labels Wall Street places on companies or investors. Value and growth are just words. Investors may have tendencies that define them in the public eye, but that oversimplification may obscure the characteristics that draw their interest in an investment. Although Buffett likely didn't buy shares of Snowflake, it may have been the customer loyalty, leadership team, and consistent march toward profitability that made Combs or Weschler comfortable buying Snowflake shares. Wood may have a lot of fast-growing companies that don't make a profit, but it's the innovation that compels her to invest, not just growth rate. In the case of Novartis, innovation came in the form of a mega-cap pharmaceutical company.</p><p><blockquote>不要满足于华尔街给公司或投资者贴上的标签。价值和增长只是口头上的。投资者可能有在公众眼中定义他们的倾向，但这种过于简单化可能会掩盖吸引他们对投资感兴趣的特征。尽管巴菲特可能没有购买Snowflake的股票，但可能是客户忠诚度、领导团队以及持续向盈利能力迈进，让库姆斯或韦施勒放心购买Snowflake股票。伍德可能有很多快速增长的公司没有盈利，但迫使她投资的是创新，而不仅仅是增长率。就诺华而言，创新是以大型制药公司的形式出现的。</blockquote></p><p>Instead of focusing on the labels Wall Street slaps on a company or following Warren Buffett or Cathie Wood into the stock, try to identify the characteristics of the business that they find compelling. Try approaching the company as if you were going to inherit it, learning how dedicated customers are, where money gets spent to attract new ones, or what advantages it has over competitors. These answers will lead to a more informed investment decision and better outcomes over time.</p><p><blockquote>不要关注华尔街给一家公司贴上的标签，也不要追随沃伦·巴菲特或凯西·伍德买入该股票，而是尝试找出他们认为引人注目的业务特征。尝试接近该公司，就像你要继承它一样，了解客户有多敬业，钱花在哪里吸引新客户，或者它相对于竞争对手有什么优势。随着时间的推移，这些答案将导致更明智的投资决策和更好的结果。</blockquote></p><p>It turns out, both Snowflake and Novartis are compelling to different types of investors for a variety of reasons. Exploring those reasons can teach us a lot more about investing than focusing solely on who owns them. The more we know about a company, the easier it is to figure out whether the nextsell-off is something to fear or a great opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，出于各种原因，雪花和诺华都吸引了不同类型的投资者。探索这些原因可以教会我们更多关于投资的知识，而不是仅仅关注谁拥有它们。我们对一家公司了解得越多，就越容易弄清楚下一次抛售是令人恐惧的事情还是一个绝佳的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Stock Warren Buffett and Cathie Wood Have in Common and 1 They Should<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特和凯西·伍德共有1只股票，他们应该有1只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Stock Warren Buffett and Cathie Wood Have in Common and 1 They Should<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特和凯西·伍德共有1只股票，他们应该有1只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 21:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It might be a surprise to find out that two investors with virtually opposite approaches -- one who invests in large, cheap, iconic companies and the other who rose to fame on the heels of her outlandishly bullish (and accurate) predictions about \"overvalued\" stocks -- would have the same company in their portfolios. Perhaps the bigger surprise is the stock you might expect them to both own that they don't. Let's take a look at the two companies in question and what these successful investors must see.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会惊讶地发现，两个方法几乎相反的投资者——一个投资于大型、廉价、标志性的公司，另一个因她对“高估”股票的异常乐观（且准确）预测而声名鹊起——他们的投资组合中会有同一家公司。也许更大的惊喜是你可能期望他们都拥有的股票，但他们并没有。让我们来看看有问题的两家公司以及这些成功的投资者必须看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p><b>The surprising stock they both own</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他们都拥有的令人惊讶的股票</b></blockquote></p><p>First, it's doubtful that Warren Buffett actually bought<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW), the cloud data warehouse-as-a-service company. In recent years, lieutenants Todd Combs and Ted Weschler have been making more of the investment decisions, and the $750 million in stock<b>BerkshireHathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)purchased before theinitial public offering (IPO)certainly doesn't match the investment style of the legendary nonagenarian. In fact, Buffett hasn't bought an IPO since<b>Ford</b>&nbsp;in 1956. The company does fit the style of Cathie Wood at ARK Invest, a global asset management company focused on disruptive innovation. That said, Snowflake is putting up numbers that would get any investor's attention.</p><p><blockquote>首先，沃伦·巴菲特是否真的购买了值得怀疑<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），云数据仓库即服务公司。近年来，托德·库姆斯中尉和特德·韦施勒中尉一直在做出更多的投资决策，7.5亿美元的股票<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.B）在首次公开募股（IPO）之前购买的当然不符合这位传奇九十多岁老人的投资风格。事实上，巴菲特此后就没有购买过IPO<b>福特</b>1956年。该公司确实符合ARK Invest的Cathie Wood的风格，ARK Invest是一家专注于颠覆性创新的全球资产管理公司。也就是说，Snowflake提供的数据会引起任何投资者的注意。</blockquote></p><p>The company recently reported its full fiscal year earnings, and the growth was jaw-dropping. Fourth-quarter revenue of $178 million was up 116% year over year. Topping that, remaining performance obligations, what customers have signed on to buy, was up 213% over the same point last year. The company has 77 customers that spend more than $1 million per year. That number is up from 65 just three months earlier. Management is projecting between 92% and 96% revenue growth for the current year. Snowflake posted an operating margin of negative 92%. Losing money never sounds good, but that is closer to profitability than the negative 135% for the year ending January 2020 or the negative 192% in 2019. If the company really wanted to turn a profit it could just curb its spending on sales and marketing.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近公布了完整财年的收益，增长令人瞠目结舌。第四季度营收为1.78亿美元，同比增长116%。最重要的是，剩余履约义务（即客户已签署购买的商品）比去年同期增长了213%。该公司有77名每年消费超过100万美元的客户。这个数字比三个月前的65个有所上升。管理层预计今年收入增长92%至96%。Snowflake公布的营业利润率为负92%。亏损听起来从来都不是好事，但这比截至2020年1月的年度负135%或2019年的负192%更接近盈利。如果该公司真的想盈利，它可以限制销售和营销支出。</blockquote></p><p>It may not be a typical Buffett stock, but Snowflake definitely fits the mold of Wood's investments. The ARK founder has become synonymous with innovation, building a portfolio around futuristic themes such as genomics, space exploration, mobility-as-a-service, and the next-generation internet. It's the last theme, encompassing artificial intelligence and cloud computing, where Snowflake fits. The company's pay-as-you-consume, real-time access to data and analytical tools is a giant leap forward compared to the slow, bogged-down daily or weekly updates companies have long come to accept with managing their internal data warehouses.</p><p><blockquote>它可能不是典型的巴菲特股票，但雪花绝对符合伍德的投资模式。方舟创始人已成为创新的代名词，围绕基因组学、太空探索、移动即服务和下一代互联网等未来主题构建产品组合。这是最后一个主题，包括人工智能和云计算，雪花适合。与公司长期以来在管理内部数据仓库时接受的缓慢、停滞不前的每日或每周更新相比，该公司按消费付费、实时访问数据和分析工具是一个巨大的飞跃。</blockquote></p><p>Another stock in ARK's portfolio touches both the data-related and genomic revolution strategy. Based on his other holdings, it's actually surprising Buffett doesn't own it too.</p><p><blockquote>ARK投资组合中的另一只股票涉及数据相关和基因组革命战略。根据他的其他持股，巴菲特并不拥有它实际上令人惊讶。</blockquote></p><p><b>The surprising stock they don't both own</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人惊讶的是他们并不都拥有的股票</b></blockquote></p><p>The Oracle of Omaha has been buying up the stocks of pharmaceutical companies in the past year. In the third quarter of 2020 he added shares of<b>Pfizer</b>(NYSE:PFE),<b>AbbVie</b>(NYSE:ABBV),<b>Merck</b>(NYSE:MRK), and<b>BristolMyersSquibb</b>(NYSE:BMY). Every member of that group gives investors between 3% and 5% in dividends annually. Other than Bristol Myers, they all hover around a $200 billion market cap as well, and Bristol Myers is nearly as large at $136 billion. Similarly,<b>Novartis</b>(NYSE:NVS)is a $211 billion company yielding 3.8%. Perhaps the reason Buffett hasn't bought this big pharma stock is that it is a Swiss company. It turns out, Buffett favors American brands in food, cola, and apparently drugmakers.</p><p><blockquote>这位奥马哈先知在过去的一年里一直在买入制药公司的股票。2020年第三季度，他增持了<b>辉瑞</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：PFE），<b>艾伯维</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：ABBV），<b>默克</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：MRK），以及<b>百时美施贵宝</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BMY）。该集团的每个成员每年向投资者支付3%至5%的股息。除了百时美施贵宝之外，它们的市值也都徘徊在2000亿美元左右，百时美施贵宝的市值也几乎同样大，为1360亿美元。同样，<b>诺华</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NVS）是一家市值2110亿美元的公司，收益率为3.8%。也许巴菲特没有购买这家大型制药公司股票的原因是它是一家瑞士公司。事实证明，巴菲特青睐食品、可乐领域的美国品牌，显然还有制药商。</blockquote></p><p>Novartis did catch the eye of Wood, thanks to its work toward developing a leading digital and data science platform for drug discovery. Although it isn't a pure play on any of ARK's strategies, Wood considers it a deep value pick, to be held through a bull market and then sold in times of volatility to add to higher-conviction growth names that get beaten down.</p><p><blockquote>诺华确实引起了伍德的注意，这要归功于其致力于开发领先的药物发现数字和数据科学平台。尽管这并不是ARK任何策略的纯粹体现，但伍德认为这是一个深度价值选择，可以在牛市期间持有，然后在波动时期出售，以增加受到打击的信念较高的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>Portfolio juxtaposition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>组合并置</b></blockquote></p><p>It may be counterintuitive for an investor who prides himself on unemotional investing to buy into one of the hottest IPOs of last year, but once Snowflake started trading, the investment doubled almost immediately. Similarly, few would think someone famous for a $4,000 price target on<b>Tesla</b>and presentations that literally map out the future of entire industries would own a nearly 4% dividend paying pharmaceutical company with no growth. However, there is a great lesson in these examples.</p><p><blockquote>对于一个以不带感情色彩的投资为荣的投资者来说，买入去年最热门的IPO之一可能是违反直觉的，但一旦Snowflake开始交易，投资几乎立即翻了一番。同样，很少有人会认为有人以4,000美元的目标价而闻名<b>特斯拉</b>真正描绘整个行业未来的演示文稿将拥有一家支付近4%股息但没有增长的制药公司。然而，这些例子中有一个很好的教训。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Don't settle for the labels Wall Street places on companies or investors. Value and growth are just words. Investors may have tendencies that define them in the public eye, but that oversimplification may obscure the characteristics that draw their interest in an investment. Although Buffett likely didn't buy shares of Snowflake, it may have been the customer loyalty, leadership team, and consistent march toward profitability that made Combs or Weschler comfortable buying Snowflake shares. Wood may have a lot of fast-growing companies that don't make a profit, but it's the innovation that compels her to invest, not just growth rate. In the case of Novartis, innovation came in the form of a mega-cap pharmaceutical company.</p><p><blockquote>不要满足于华尔街给公司或投资者贴上的标签。价值和增长只是口头上的。投资者可能有在公众眼中定义他们的倾向，但这种过于简单化可能会掩盖吸引他们对投资感兴趣的特征。尽管巴菲特可能没有购买Snowflake的股票，但可能是客户忠诚度、领导团队以及持续向盈利能力迈进，让库姆斯或韦施勒放心购买Snowflake股票。伍德可能有很多快速增长的公司没有盈利，但迫使她投资的是创新，而不仅仅是增长率。就诺华而言，创新是以大型制药公司的形式出现的。</blockquote></p><p>Instead of focusing on the labels Wall Street slaps on a company or following Warren Buffett or Cathie Wood into the stock, try to identify the characteristics of the business that they find compelling. Try approaching the company as if you were going to inherit it, learning how dedicated customers are, where money gets spent to attract new ones, or what advantages it has over competitors. These answers will lead to a more informed investment decision and better outcomes over time.</p><p><blockquote>不要关注华尔街给一家公司贴上的标签，也不要追随沃伦·巴菲特或凯西·伍德买入该股票，而是尝试找出他们认为引人注目的业务特征。尝试接近该公司，就像你要继承它一样，了解客户有多敬业，钱花在哪里吸引新客户，或者它相对于竞争对手有什么优势。随着时间的推移，这些答案将导致更明智的投资决策和更好的结果。</blockquote></p><p>It turns out, both Snowflake and Novartis are compelling to different types of investors for a variety of reasons. Exploring those reasons can teach us a lot more about investing than focusing solely on who owns them. The more we know about a company, the easier it is to figure out whether the nextsell-off is something to fear or a great opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，出于各种原因，雪花和诺华都吸引了不同类型的投资者。探索这些原因可以教会我们更多关于投资的知识，而不是仅仅关注谁拥有它们。我们对一家公司了解得越多，就越容易弄清楚下一次抛售是令人恐惧的事情还是一个绝佳的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/19/1-stock-warren-buffett-and-cathie-wood-have-in-com/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/19/1-stock-warren-buffett-and-cathie-wood-have-in-com/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190757715","content_text":"It might be a surprise to find out that two investors with virtually opposite approaches -- one who invests in large, cheap, iconic companies and the other who rose to fame on the heels of her outlandishly bullish (and accurate) predictions about \"overvalued\" stocks -- would have the same company in their portfolios. Perhaps the bigger surprise is the stock you might expect them to both own that they don't. Let's take a look at the two companies in question and what these successful investors must see.The surprising stock they both ownFirst, it's doubtful that Warren Buffett actually boughtSnowflake(NYSE:SNOW), the cloud data warehouse-as-a-service company. In recent years, lieutenants Todd Combs and Ted Weschler have been making more of the investment decisions, and the $750 million in stockBerkshireHathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)purchased before theinitial public offering (IPO)certainly doesn't match the investment style of the legendary nonagenarian. In fact, Buffett hasn't bought an IPO sinceFord in 1956. The company does fit the style of Cathie Wood at ARK Invest, a global asset management company focused on disruptive innovation. That said, Snowflake is putting up numbers that would get any investor's attention.The company recently reported its full fiscal year earnings, and the growth was jaw-dropping. Fourth-quarter revenue of $178 million was up 116% year over year. Topping that, remaining performance obligations, what customers have signed on to buy, was up 213% over the same point last year. The company has 77 customers that spend more than $1 million per year. That number is up from 65 just three months earlier. Management is projecting between 92% and 96% revenue growth for the current year. Snowflake posted an operating margin of negative 92%. Losing money never sounds good, but that is closer to profitability than the negative 135% for the year ending January 2020 or the negative 192% in 2019. If the company really wanted to turn a profit it could just curb its spending on sales and marketing.It may not be a typical Buffett stock, but Snowflake definitely fits the mold of Wood's investments. The ARK founder has become synonymous with innovation, building a portfolio around futuristic themes such as genomics, space exploration, mobility-as-a-service, and the next-generation internet. It's the last theme, encompassing artificial intelligence and cloud computing, where Snowflake fits. The company's pay-as-you-consume, real-time access to data and analytical tools is a giant leap forward compared to the slow, bogged-down daily or weekly updates companies have long come to accept with managing their internal data warehouses.Another stock in ARK's portfolio touches both the data-related and genomic revolution strategy. Based on his other holdings, it's actually surprising Buffett doesn't own it too.The surprising stock they don't both ownThe Oracle of Omaha has been buying up the stocks of pharmaceutical companies in the past year. In the third quarter of 2020 he added shares ofPfizer(NYSE:PFE),AbbVie(NYSE:ABBV),Merck(NYSE:MRK), andBristolMyersSquibb(NYSE:BMY). Every member of that group gives investors between 3% and 5% in dividends annually. Other than Bristol Myers, they all hover around a $200 billion market cap as well, and Bristol Myers is nearly as large at $136 billion. Similarly,Novartis(NYSE:NVS)is a $211 billion company yielding 3.8%. Perhaps the reason Buffett hasn't bought this big pharma stock is that it is a Swiss company. It turns out, Buffett favors American brands in food, cola, and apparently drugmakers.Novartis did catch the eye of Wood, thanks to its work toward developing a leading digital and data science platform for drug discovery. Although it isn't a pure play on any of ARK's strategies, Wood considers it a deep value pick, to be held through a bull market and then sold in times of volatility to add to higher-conviction growth names that get beaten down.Portfolio juxtapositionIt may be counterintuitive for an investor who prides himself on unemotional investing to buy into one of the hottest IPOs of last year, but once Snowflake started trading, the investment doubled almost immediately. Similarly, few would think someone famous for a $4,000 price target onTeslaand presentations that literally map out the future of entire industries would own a nearly 4% dividend paying pharmaceutical company with no growth. However, there is a great lesson in these examples.Don't settle for the labels Wall Street places on companies or investors. Value and growth are just words. Investors may have tendencies that define them in the public eye, but that oversimplification may obscure the characteristics that draw their interest in an investment. Although Buffett likely didn't buy shares of Snowflake, it may have been the customer loyalty, leadership team, and consistent march toward profitability that made Combs or Weschler comfortable buying Snowflake shares. Wood may have a lot of fast-growing companies that don't make a profit, but it's the innovation that compels her to invest, not just growth rate. In the case of Novartis, innovation came in the form of a mega-cap pharmaceutical company.Instead of focusing on the labels Wall Street slaps on a company or following Warren Buffett or Cathie Wood into the stock, try to identify the characteristics of the business that they find compelling. Try approaching the company as if you were going to inherit it, learning how dedicated customers are, where money gets spent to attract new ones, or what advantages it has over competitors. These answers will lead to a more informed investment decision and better outcomes over time.It turns out, both Snowflake and Novartis are compelling to different types of investors for a variety of reasons. Exploring those reasons can teach us a lot more about investing than focusing solely on who owns them. The more we know about a company, the easier it is to figure out whether the nextsell-off is something to fear or a great opportunity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326601968,"gmtCreate":1615622886054,"gmtModify":1703491720753,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish ahead Tesla bearish?","listText":"Bullish ahead Tesla bearish?","text":"Bullish ahead Tesla bearish?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326601968","repostId":"2118912950","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320597978,"gmtCreate":1615134535594,"gmtModify":1703484928822,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BeArish?","listText":"BeArish?","text":"BeArish?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320597978","repostId":"1116031861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116031861","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614955424,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116031861?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-05 22:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Senseonics plunged more than 9%<blockquote>Senseonics暴跌超9%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116031861","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 5) Senseonics plunged more than 9%. Senseonics downgraded to underperform from market perform","content":"<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Senseonics plunged more than 9%.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Senseonics暴跌超9%。</blockquote></p><p>Senseonics downgraded to underperform from market perform at Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)将Senseonics评级从市场表现下调至表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p>Senseonics Holdings, Inc. reported quarterly losses of $(0.41) per share. This is a 127.78 percent decrease over losses of $(0.18) per share from the same period last year.  The company reported quarterly sales of $3.90 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $3.05 million by 27.87 percent.  This is a 56.44 percent decrease over sales of $8.95 million the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>Senseonics Holdings，Inc.报告季度亏损为每股0.41美元。与去年同期每股亏损(0.18)美元相比，减少了127.78%。该公司报告季度销售额为390万美元，比分析师普遍预期的305万美元高出27.87%。与去年同期895万美元的销售额相比，下降了56.44%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8692adfc74e9219bd4e30a757ad3a1dd\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Senseonics plunged more than 9%<blockquote>Senseonics暴跌超9%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSenseonics plunged more than 9%<blockquote>Senseonics暴跌超9%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-05 22:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Senseonics plunged more than 9%.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Senseonics暴跌超9%。</blockquote></p><p>Senseonics downgraded to underperform from market perform at Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)将Senseonics评级从市场表现下调至表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p>Senseonics Holdings, Inc. reported quarterly losses of $(0.41) per share. This is a 127.78 percent decrease over losses of $(0.18) per share from the same period last year.  The company reported quarterly sales of $3.90 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $3.05 million by 27.87 percent.  This is a 56.44 percent decrease over sales of $8.95 million the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>Senseonics Holdings，Inc.报告季度亏损为每股0.41美元。与去年同期每股亏损(0.18)美元相比，减少了127.78%。该公司报告季度销售额为390万美元，比分析师普遍预期的305万美元高出27.87%。与去年同期895万美元的销售额相比，下降了56.44%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8692adfc74e9219bd4e30a757ad3a1dd\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SENS":"Senseonics Holdings,Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116031861","content_text":"(March 5) Senseonics plunged more than 9%. Senseonics downgraded to underperform from market perform at Raymond James.Senseonics Holdings, Inc. reported quarterly losses of $(0.41) per share. This is a 127.78 percent decrease over losses of $(0.18) per share from the same period last year.  The company reported quarterly sales of $3.90 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $3.05 million by 27.87 percent.  This is a 56.44 percent decrease over sales of $8.95 million the same period last year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SENS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367903503,"gmtCreate":1614900713702,"gmtModify":1703482660339,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bearish ahead?","listText":"Bearish ahead?","text":"Bearish ahead?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367903503","repostId":"2116058775","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365704516,"gmtCreate":1614777458335,"gmtModify":1703480971410,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bearish?","listText":"Bearish?","text":"Bearish?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365704516","repostId":"2116544597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362654044,"gmtCreate":1614635976588,"gmtModify":1703479092877,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362654044","repostId":"1143415407","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143415407","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614608364,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143415407?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-01 22:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is AMD Stock A Buy After Chipmaker's Fourth-Quarter Earnings Report?<blockquote>芯片制造商发布第四季度收益报告后，AMD股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143415407","media":"Investors","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) stock is down since the chipmaker reported fourth-quarter results in lat","content":"<p><b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(AMD) stock is down since the chipmaker reported fourth-quarter results in late January. With a pullback in shares, some investors may be wondering: Is AMD stock a buy right now?</p><p><blockquote><b>先进微设备公司</b>自芯片制造商AMD 1月底公布第四季度业绩以来，该公司股价一直在下跌。随着股价回调，一些投资者可能想知道：AMD股票现在值得买入吗？</blockquote></p><p> AMD has staged an amazing turnaround over the past five years, fueled by new products and improved profitability. And AMD stock has climbed as a result.</p><p><blockquote>在新产品和盈利能力提高的推动下，AMD在过去五年中实现了惊人的扭亏为盈。AMD股价因此上涨。</blockquote></p><p> AMD competes with<b>Intel</b>(INTC) in making central processing units, or CPUs, for personal computers and servers. It also rivals<b>Nvidia</b>(NVDA) in the market for graphics processing units, or GPUs, for PCs, gaming consoles and data centers.</p><p><blockquote>AMD与<b>英特尔</b>（INTC）为个人计算机和服务器制造中央处理器。它也是对手<b>英伟达</b>(NVDA)在用于PC、游戏机和数据中心的图形处理单元(GPU)市场。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in May 1969, AMD went&nbsp;public in September 1972.&nbsp;AMD shifted to a fabless semiconductor business in March 2009 by spinning off its factories into a joint venture called GlobalFoundries.</p><p><blockquote>AMD成立于1969年5月，1972年9月上市。AMD于2009年3月将其工厂分拆为一家名为GlobalFoundries的合资企业，转向无晶圆厂半导体业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chief Executive Lisa Su Making A Difference</b></p><p><blockquote><b>首席执行官苏姿丰有所作为</b></blockquote></p><p> Current Chief Executive Lisa Su took the reins in October 2014. She shepherded the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company into a new era with its Ryzen PC processors and Epyc server chips in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>现任首席执行官苏姿丰于2014年10月上任。2017年，她凭借Ryzen PC处理器和Epyc服务器芯片带领这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的公司进入了一个新时代。</blockquote></p><p> Under her supervision, AMD jumped ahead of Intel in making CPUs at smaller node sizes, giving its products an edge in speed and performance. AMD is making chips at 7-nanometer scale, while Intel has struggled to make chips at 10-nanometer scale. AMD is now developing chips at 5-nanometer scale. Circuit widths on chips are measured in nanometers, which are one-billionth of a meter.</p><p><blockquote>在她的监督下，AMD在制造更小节点尺寸的CPU方面领先于英特尔，使其产品在速度和性能上具有优势。AMD正在制造7纳米规模的芯片，而英特尔一直在努力制造10纳米规模的芯片。AMD现在正在开发5纳米规模的芯片。芯片上的电路宽度以纳米为单位，即十亿分之一米。</blockquote></p><p> On July 23,Intel announced a six-month delayin production of its already behind-schedule 7-nanometer processors. Intel now expects to ship its first 7-nanometer processors in late 2022 or early 2023. By that time, AMD could be making 3-nanometer processors, analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>7月23日，英特尔宣布将其已经落后于计划的7纳米处理器的生产推迟六个月。英特尔现在预计将于2022年底或2023年初出货首批7纳米处理器。分析师表示，到那时，AMD可能会生产3纳米处理器。</blockquote></p><p> The situation has helped AMD take market share from Intel in PCs and servers. Those gains have buoyed AMD stock.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况帮助AMD从英特尔手中夺取了个人电脑和服务器领域的市场份额。这些涨幅提振了AMD股价。</blockquote></p><p> Chip foundry&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</b>(TSM) produces AMD's chips.</p><p><blockquote>芯片代工<b>台积电</b>(TSM)生产AMD的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> Su also is overseeing a potentially transformative acquisition. On Oct. 27, AMD announced an all-stock deal worth $35 billion to buy<b>Xilinx</b>(XLNX) to expand its growing data-center business. However, AMD stock fell on theXilinx acquisition news. Critics said the acquisition complicates AMD's \"clean\" investor story around market share gains in processors.</p><p><blockquote>苏还在监督一项潜在的变革性收购。10月27日，AMD宣布了一项价值350亿美元的全股票交易，收购<b>Xilinx</b>(XLNX)扩大其不断增长的数据中心业务。然而，AMD股价因Xilinx收购消息而下跌。批评人士表示，此次收购使AMD围绕处理器市场份额增长的“干净”投资者故事变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel Losing Market Share To AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔将市场份额输给AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> In the fourth quarter, Intel regained market share from AMD in CPUs for desktop and notebook PCs, according to Mercury Research. That ended a three-year streak of market share gains by AMD in the PC segment on a quarter-to-quarter basis. AMD also suffered supply constraints with its contract manufacturer in the period.</p><p><blockquote>根据Mercury Research的数据，第四季度，英特尔从AMD手中夺回了台式机和笔记本电脑CPU的市场份额。这结束了AMD在PC领域连续三年的市场份额逐季增长。AMD在此期间还遭受了其合同制造商的供应限制。</blockquote></p><p> AMD's unit share of desktop PC processor sales was 19.3% in the fourth quarter, down from 20.1% in the third quarter. However, it was up from 18.3% in the year-earlier period.</p><p><blockquote>AMD第四季度台式机PC处理器销量的单位份额为19.3%，低于第三季度的20.1%。然而，这一比例高于去年同期的18.3%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD's unit share of notebook PC processor sales was 19% in the December quarter, down from 20.2% in the September quarter. But it was up from 16.2% in the year-earlier period.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在12月季度笔记本电脑处理器销量中的单位份额为19%，低于9月季度的20.2%。但高于去年同期的16.2%。</blockquote></p><p> However, AMD continued to gain share in CPUs for servers during the fourth quarter. Its server CPU market share was 7.1% in the December quarter. That compares with 6.6% in the September quarter and 4.5% in the year-earlier quarter, Mercury said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD在第四季度继续获得服务器CPU的份额。12月份季度，其服务器CPU市场份额为7.1%。Mercury表示，相比之下，9月份季度为6.6%，去年同期为4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Advanced Micro Devices News: New PC, Gaming Chips</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Advanced Micro Devices新闻：新PC、游戏芯片</b></blockquote></p><p> On Oct. 8, AMD introduced its next-generation Ryzen processors for desktop computers. It described itsRyzen 5000 series central processing unitsas the \"fastest gaming CPUs in the world.\"&nbsp;The Ryzen 5000 series products are aimed at PC gamers and content creators.</p><p><blockquote>10月8日，AMD推出了用于台式电脑的下一代锐龙处理器。它将其锐龙5000系列中央处理器描述为“世界上最快的游戏CPU”锐龙5000系列产品面向PC游戏玩家和内容创作者。</blockquote></p><p> On Jan. 12, during a keynote speech at the virtual CES 2021 tech conference, Chief Executive Su introduced the company's newRyzen 5000 Series mobile processors. She called the chips \"the most powerful PC processors ever built for ultrathin and gaming notebooks.\" However, AMD stock fell 2% that day.</p><p><blockquote>1月12日，在虚拟CES 2021技术大会的主题演讲中，首席执行官苏介绍了该公司的newRyzen 5000系列移动处理器。她称这些芯片是“有史以来为超薄和游戏笔记本打造的最强大的PC处理器”。然而，AMD股价当天下跌2%。</blockquote></p><p> The next potential catalyst for AMD stock will be March 3. On that date, AMD plans to introduce the newest addition to its Radeon RX family of high-performance graphic cards.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股票的下一个潜在催化剂将是3月3日。在那一天，AMD计划推出其镭龙RX系列高性能显卡的最新成员。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMD Fundamental Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD基本面分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c60b5a17f32fbcdbeaf44cd79b85591\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"418\">Late Jan. 26,AMD reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, thanks to strong demand for PC, gaming and data center products. But AMD stock fell 6.2% the next day.</p><p><blockquote>1月26日晚些时候，AMD公布了好于预期的第四季度业绩，这得益于对PC、游戏和数据中心产品的强劲需求。但第二天AMD股价下跌6.2%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD earned an adjusted 52 cents a share on sales of $3.24 billion in the December quarter. Analysts expected AMD earnings of 47 cents a share on sales of $3.02 billion. On a year-over-year basis, AMD earnings rose 63% while sales climbed 53%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在12月份季度的销售额为32.4亿美元，调整后每股收益为52美分。分析师预计AMD每股收益为47美分，销售额为30.2亿美元。与去年同期相比，AMD盈利增长63%，销售额增长53%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, AMD expects to generate revenue of $3.2 billion, up 79% from the year-earlier period. Wall Street analysts predicted AMD sales of $2.73 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计本季度营收为32亿美元，同比增长79%。华尔街分析师预测AMD第一季度销售额为27.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the full year, AMD expects sales to rise 37% to $13.38 billion. Analysts had been looking for 2021 revenue of $12.24 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计全年销售额将增长37%，达到133.8亿美元。分析师此前预计2021年收入为122.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> At least six Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on AMD stock after the company's earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>在AMD发布财报后，至少有六位华尔街分析师上调了该公司股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMD Stock Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD股票技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD stock sank to a nearly four-decade low of 1.61 a share in July 2015 before starting its epic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>2015年7月，AMD股价跌至每股1.61美元的近四年低点，随后开始了史诗般的复苏。</blockquote></p><p> On Nov. 30, AMD stock broke out of a fourth-stage,double-bottom basewith abuy pointof 88.82, according toIBD MarketSmithcharts. It notched a record high of 99.23 on Jan. 11.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD MarketSmithCharts的数据，11月30日，AMD股价突破第四阶段双底，买入点为88.82。1月11日创下99.23的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> For two months after itsbreakout, AMD stock traded in and out of the5% chase zone. However, it triggered around-trip sell signalafter retreating from a breakout gain of more than 10% back to below the buy point.</p><p><blockquote>在突破后的两个月里，AMD股票在5%的追涨区进进出出。然而，在从超过10%的突破涨幅回落至买入点以下后，它触发了往返卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> AMD stock flashed anothersell signalon Feb. 23 when it dropped 7% to 8% below the buy point of its breakout. It ended the regular session Feb. 26 in the sell zone at 84.51.</p><p><blockquote>2月23日，AMD股价再次发出卖出信号，当时该股较突破买入点下跌7%至8%。2月26日常规交易结束于卖出区84.51。</blockquote></p><p> AMD stock has anIBD Relative Strength Ratingof 62. That means it has outperformed 62% of stocks on the market over the past 12 months. The best growth stocks typically have RS Ratings of at least 80. And AMD'srelative strength linehas declined since mid-December as it underperforms the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股票的IBD相对强度评级为62。这意味着它在过去12个月中的表现优于市场上62%的股票。最好的成长型股票的RS评级通常至少为80。AMD的相对强弱线自12月中旬以来一直在下降，因为它的表现逊于标普500指数。</blockquote></p><p> It has anIBD Accumulation/Distribution Ratingof B-, indicating some institutional buying of AMD shares.</p><p><blockquote>它的IBD积累/分配评级为B-，表明一些机构购买了AMD股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMD stock is on theIBD 50&nbsp;listof top-performing growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股票跻身IBD 50表现最佳成长型股票名单。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AMD Stock A Buy Right Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD stock is not a buy right now. It is trading well below its50-day moving average line, a negative sign.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股票目前不值得买入。其交易价格远低于50日移动平均线，这是一个负面信号。</blockquote></p><p> AMD stock will need to form anew basein theright market conditionsbefore setting a new potential buy point. Check outIBD's Big Picture columnfor the current market direction.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股票需要在正确的市场条件下形成新的基础，然后才能设定新的潜在买入点。查看IBD的大图专栏，了解当前的市场方向。</blockquote></p><p> AMD stock has anIBD Composite Ratingof 95 out of a best-possible 99. IBD's Composite Rating combines five separate proprietary ratings into one easy-to-use rating. The best growth stocks have a Composite Rating of 90 or better.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股票的IBD综合评级为95分（满分为99分）。IBD的综合评级将五个独立的专有评级合并为一个易于使用的评级。最佳成长型股票的综合评级为90或更高。</blockquote></p><p> TheIBD Stock Checkuptool ranks AMD in fourth place in IBD's fabless semiconductor industry group. So, there are better stocks in the group to consider.</p><p><blockquote>IBD股票检查工具将AMD在IBD无晶圆厂半导体行业组中排名第四。因此，该组中有更好的股票可以考虑。</blockquote></p><p> Also, the fabless chipmaker group ranks No. 88 out of 197 industry groups that IBD tracks. Growth stock investors should focus on leading stocks in the top 40 industry groups.</p><p><blockquote>此外，无晶圆厂芯片制造商集团在IBD追踪的197个行业集团中排名第88位。成长股投资者应重点关注前40大产业群中的龙头股。</blockquote></p><p> To find thebest stocks to buy or watch, check outIBD Stock Listsas well as IBD'sLeaderboard,MarketSmithandSwingTraderplatforms.</p><p><blockquote>要找到最值得购买或关注的股票，请查看IBD股票列表以及IBD排行榜、MarketSmithandSwingTraderplatforms。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is AMD Stock A Buy After Chipmaker's Fourth-Quarter Earnings Report?<blockquote>芯片制造商发布第四季度收益报告后，AMD股票值得买入吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs AMD Stock A Buy After Chipmaker's Fourth-Quarter Earnings Report?<blockquote>芯片制造商发布第四季度收益报告后，AMD股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-01 22:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(AMD) stock is down since the chipmaker reported fourth-quarter results in late January. With a pullback in shares, some investors may be wondering: Is AMD stock a buy right now?</p><p><blockquote><b>先进微设备公司</b>自芯片制造商AMD 1月底公布第四季度业绩以来，该公司股价一直在下跌。随着股价回调，一些投资者可能想知道：AMD股票现在值得买入吗？</blockquote></p><p> AMD has staged an amazing turnaround over the past five years, fueled by new products and improved profitability. And AMD stock has climbed as a result.</p><p><blockquote>在新产品和盈利能力提高的推动下，AMD在过去五年中实现了惊人的扭亏为盈。AMD股价因此上涨。</blockquote></p><p> AMD competes with<b>Intel</b>(INTC) in making central processing units, or CPUs, for personal computers and servers. It also rivals<b>Nvidia</b>(NVDA) in the market for graphics processing units, or GPUs, for PCs, gaming consoles and data centers.</p><p><blockquote>AMD与<b>英特尔</b>（INTC）为个人计算机和服务器制造中央处理器。它也是对手<b>英伟达</b>(NVDA)在用于PC、游戏机和数据中心的图形处理单元(GPU)市场。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in May 1969, AMD went&nbsp;public in September 1972.&nbsp;AMD shifted to a fabless semiconductor business in March 2009 by spinning off its factories into a joint venture called GlobalFoundries.</p><p><blockquote>AMD成立于1969年5月，1972年9月上市。AMD于2009年3月将其工厂分拆为一家名为GlobalFoundries的合资企业，转向无晶圆厂半导体业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chief Executive Lisa Su Making A Difference</b></p><p><blockquote><b>首席执行官苏姿丰有所作为</b></blockquote></p><p> Current Chief Executive Lisa Su took the reins in October 2014. She shepherded the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company into a new era with its Ryzen PC processors and Epyc server chips in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>现任首席执行官苏姿丰于2014年10月上任。2017年，她凭借Ryzen PC处理器和Epyc服务器芯片带领这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的公司进入了一个新时代。</blockquote></p><p> Under her supervision, AMD jumped ahead of Intel in making CPUs at smaller node sizes, giving its products an edge in speed and performance. AMD is making chips at 7-nanometer scale, while Intel has struggled to make chips at 10-nanometer scale. AMD is now developing chips at 5-nanometer scale. Circuit widths on chips are measured in nanometers, which are one-billionth of a meter.</p><p><blockquote>在她的监督下，AMD在制造更小节点尺寸的CPU方面领先于英特尔，使其产品在速度和性能上具有优势。AMD正在制造7纳米规模的芯片，而英特尔一直在努力制造10纳米规模的芯片。AMD现在正在开发5纳米规模的芯片。芯片上的电路宽度以纳米为单位，即十亿分之一米。</blockquote></p><p> On July 23,Intel announced a six-month delayin production of its already behind-schedule 7-nanometer processors. Intel now expects to ship its first 7-nanometer processors in late 2022 or early 2023. By that time, AMD could be making 3-nanometer processors, analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>7月23日，英特尔宣布将其已经落后于计划的7纳米处理器的生产推迟六个月。英特尔现在预计将于2022年底或2023年初出货首批7纳米处理器。分析师表示，到那时，AMD可能会生产3纳米处理器。</blockquote></p><p> The situation has helped AMD take market share from Intel in PCs and servers. Those gains have buoyed AMD stock.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况帮助AMD从英特尔手中夺取了个人电脑和服务器领域的市场份额。这些涨幅提振了AMD股价。</blockquote></p><p> Chip foundry&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</b>(TSM) produces AMD's chips.</p><p><blockquote>芯片代工<b>台积电</b>(TSM)生产AMD的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> Su also is overseeing a potentially transformative acquisition. On Oct. 27, AMD announced an all-stock deal worth $35 billion to buy<b>Xilinx</b>(XLNX) to expand its growing data-center business. However, AMD stock fell on theXilinx acquisition news. Critics said the acquisition complicates AMD's \"clean\" investor story around market share gains in processors.</p><p><blockquote>苏还在监督一项潜在的变革性收购。10月27日，AMD宣布了一项价值350亿美元的全股票交易，收购<b>Xilinx</b>(XLNX)扩大其不断增长的数据中心业务。然而，AMD股价因Xilinx收购消息而下跌。批评人士表示，此次收购使AMD围绕处理器市场份额增长的“干净”投资者故事变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel Losing Market Share To AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔将市场份额输给AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> In the fourth quarter, Intel regained market share from AMD in CPUs for desktop and notebook PCs, according to Mercury Research. That ended a three-year streak of market share gains by AMD in the PC segment on a quarter-to-quarter basis. AMD also suffered supply constraints with its contract manufacturer in the period.</p><p><blockquote>根据Mercury Research的数据，第四季度，英特尔从AMD手中夺回了台式机和笔记本电脑CPU的市场份额。这结束了AMD在PC领域连续三年的市场份额逐季增长。AMD在此期间还遭受了其合同制造商的供应限制。</blockquote></p><p> AMD's unit share of desktop PC processor sales was 19.3% in the fourth quarter, down from 20.1% in the third quarter. However, it was up from 18.3% in the year-earlier period.</p><p><blockquote>AMD第四季度台式机PC处理器销量的单位份额为19.3%，低于第三季度的20.1%。然而，这一比例高于去年同期的18.3%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD's unit share of notebook PC processor sales was 19% in the December quarter, down from 20.2% in the September quarter. But it was up from 16.2% in the year-earlier period.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在12月季度笔记本电脑处理器销量中的单位份额为19%，低于9月季度的20.2%。但高于去年同期的16.2%。</blockquote></p><p> However, AMD continued to gain share in CPUs for servers during the fourth quarter. Its server CPU market share was 7.1% in the December quarter. That compares with 6.6% in the September quarter and 4.5% in the year-earlier quarter, Mercury said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD在第四季度继续获得服务器CPU的份额。12月份季度，其服务器CPU市场份额为7.1%。Mercury表示，相比之下，9月份季度为6.6%，去年同期为4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Advanced Micro Devices News: New PC, Gaming Chips</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Advanced Micro Devices新闻：新PC、游戏芯片</b></blockquote></p><p> On Oct. 8, AMD introduced its next-generation Ryzen processors for desktop computers. It described itsRyzen 5000 series central processing unitsas the \"fastest gaming CPUs in the world.\"&nbsp;The Ryzen 5000 series products are aimed at PC gamers and content creators.</p><p><blockquote>10月8日，AMD推出了用于台式电脑的下一代锐龙处理器。它将其锐龙5000系列中央处理器描述为“世界上最快的游戏CPU”锐龙5000系列产品面向PC游戏玩家和内容创作者。</blockquote></p><p> On Jan. 12, during a keynote speech at the virtual CES 2021 tech conference, Chief Executive Su introduced the company's newRyzen 5000 Series mobile processors. She called the chips \"the most powerful PC processors ever built for ultrathin and gaming notebooks.\" However, AMD stock fell 2% that day.</p><p><blockquote>1月12日，在虚拟CES 2021技术大会的主题演讲中，首席执行官苏介绍了该公司的newRyzen 5000系列移动处理器。她称这些芯片是“有史以来为超薄和游戏笔记本打造的最强大的PC处理器”。然而，AMD股价当天下跌2%。</blockquote></p><p> The next potential catalyst for AMD stock will be March 3. On that date, AMD plans to introduce the newest addition to its Radeon RX family of high-performance graphic cards.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股票的下一个潜在催化剂将是3月3日。在那一天，AMD计划推出其镭龙RX系列高性能显卡的最新成员。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMD Fundamental Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD基本面分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c60b5a17f32fbcdbeaf44cd79b85591\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"418\">Late Jan. 26,AMD reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, thanks to strong demand for PC, gaming and data center products. But AMD stock fell 6.2% the next day.</p><p><blockquote>1月26日晚些时候，AMD公布了好于预期的第四季度业绩，这得益于对PC、游戏和数据中心产品的强劲需求。但第二天AMD股价下跌6.2%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD earned an adjusted 52 cents a share on sales of $3.24 billion in the December quarter. Analysts expected AMD earnings of 47 cents a share on sales of $3.02 billion. On a year-over-year basis, AMD earnings rose 63% while sales climbed 53%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在12月份季度的销售额为32.4亿美元，调整后每股收益为52美分。分析师预计AMD每股收益为47美分，销售额为30.2亿美元。与去年同期相比，AMD盈利增长63%，销售额增长53%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, AMD expects to generate revenue of $3.2 billion, up 79% from the year-earlier period. Wall Street analysts predicted AMD sales of $2.73 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计本季度营收为32亿美元，同比增长79%。华尔街分析师预测AMD第一季度销售额为27.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the full year, AMD expects sales to rise 37% to $13.38 billion. Analysts had been looking for 2021 revenue of $12.24 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计全年销售额将增长37%，达到133.8亿美元。分析师此前预计2021年收入为122.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> At least six Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on AMD stock after the company's earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>在AMD发布财报后，至少有六位华尔街分析师上调了该公司股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMD Stock Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD股票技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD stock sank to a nearly four-decade low of 1.61 a share in July 2015 before starting its epic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>2015年7月，AMD股价跌至每股1.61美元的近四年低点，随后开始了史诗般的复苏。</blockquote></p><p> On Nov. 30, AMD stock broke out of a fourth-stage,double-bottom basewith abuy pointof 88.82, according toIBD MarketSmithcharts. It notched a record high of 99.23 on Jan. 11.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD MarketSmithCharts的数据，11月30日，AMD股价突破第四阶段双底，买入点为88.82。1月11日创下99.23的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> For two months after itsbreakout, AMD stock traded in and out of the5% chase zone. However, it triggered around-trip sell signalafter retreating from a breakout gain of more than 10% back to below the buy point.</p><p><blockquote>在突破后的两个月里，AMD股票在5%的追涨区进进出出。然而，在从超过10%的突破涨幅回落至买入点以下后，它触发了往返卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> AMD stock flashed anothersell signalon Feb. 23 when it dropped 7% to 8% below the buy point of its breakout. It ended the regular session Feb. 26 in the sell zone at 84.51.</p><p><blockquote>2月23日，AMD股价再次发出卖出信号，当时该股较突破买入点下跌7%至8%。2月26日常规交易结束于卖出区84.51。</blockquote></p><p> AMD stock has anIBD Relative Strength Ratingof 62. That means it has outperformed 62% of stocks on the market over the past 12 months. The best growth stocks typically have RS Ratings of at least 80. And AMD'srelative strength linehas declined since mid-December as it underperforms the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股票的IBD相对强度评级为62。这意味着它在过去12个月中的表现优于市场上62%的股票。最好的成长型股票的RS评级通常至少为80。AMD的相对强弱线自12月中旬以来一直在下降，因为它的表现逊于标普500指数。</blockquote></p><p> It has anIBD Accumulation/Distribution Ratingof B-, indicating some institutional buying of AMD shares.</p><p><blockquote>它的IBD积累/分配评级为B-，表明一些机构购买了AMD股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMD stock is on theIBD 50&nbsp;listof top-performing growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股票跻身IBD 50表现最佳成长型股票名单。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AMD Stock A Buy Right Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD stock is not a buy right now. It is trading well below its50-day moving average line, a negative sign.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股票目前不值得买入。其交易价格远低于50日移动平均线，这是一个负面信号。</blockquote></p><p> AMD stock will need to form anew basein theright market conditionsbefore setting a new potential buy point. Check outIBD's Big Picture columnfor the current market direction.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股票需要在正确的市场条件下形成新的基础，然后才能设定新的潜在买入点。查看IBD的大图专栏，了解当前的市场方向。</blockquote></p><p> AMD stock has anIBD Composite Ratingof 95 out of a best-possible 99. IBD's Composite Rating combines five separate proprietary ratings into one easy-to-use rating. The best growth stocks have a Composite Rating of 90 or better.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股票的IBD综合评级为95分（满分为99分）。IBD的综合评级将五个独立的专有评级合并为一个易于使用的评级。最佳成长型股票的综合评级为90或更高。</blockquote></p><p> TheIBD Stock Checkuptool ranks AMD in fourth place in IBD's fabless semiconductor industry group. So, there are better stocks in the group to consider.</p><p><blockquote>IBD股票检查工具将AMD在IBD无晶圆厂半导体行业组中排名第四。因此，该组中有更好的股票可以考虑。</blockquote></p><p> Also, the fabless chipmaker group ranks No. 88 out of 197 industry groups that IBD tracks. Growth stock investors should focus on leading stocks in the top 40 industry groups.</p><p><blockquote>此外，无晶圆厂芯片制造商集团在IBD追踪的197个行业集团中排名第88位。成长股投资者应重点关注前40大产业群中的龙头股。</blockquote></p><p> To find thebest stocks to buy or watch, check outIBD Stock Listsas well as IBD'sLeaderboard,MarketSmithandSwingTraderplatforms.</p><p><blockquote>要找到最值得购买或关注的股票，请查看IBD股票列表以及IBD排行榜、MarketSmithandSwingTraderplatforms。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/news/technology/amd-stock-buy-now/?src=A00220\">Investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/news/technology/amd-stock-buy-now/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143415407","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) stock is down since the chipmaker reported fourth-quarter results in late January. With a pullback in shares, some investors may be wondering: Is AMD stock a buy right now?\nAMD has staged an amazing turnaround over the past five years, fueled by new products and improved profitability. And AMD stock has climbed as a result.\nAMD competes withIntel(INTC) in making central processing units, or CPUs, for personal computers and servers. It also rivalsNvidia(NVDA) in the market for graphics processing units, or GPUs, for PCs, gaming consoles and data centers.\nFounded in May 1969, AMD went public in September 1972. AMD shifted to a fabless semiconductor business in March 2009 by spinning off its factories into a joint venture called GlobalFoundries.\nChief Executive Lisa Su Making A Difference\nCurrent Chief Executive Lisa Su took the reins in October 2014. She shepherded the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company into a new era with its Ryzen PC processors and Epyc server chips in 2017.\nUnder her supervision, AMD jumped ahead of Intel in making CPUs at smaller node sizes, giving its products an edge in speed and performance. AMD is making chips at 7-nanometer scale, while Intel has struggled to make chips at 10-nanometer scale. AMD is now developing chips at 5-nanometer scale. Circuit widths on chips are measured in nanometers, which are one-billionth of a meter.\nOn July 23,Intel announced a six-month delayin production of its already behind-schedule 7-nanometer processors. Intel now expects to ship its first 7-nanometer processors in late 2022 or early 2023. By that time, AMD could be making 3-nanometer processors, analysts said.\nThe situation has helped AMD take market share from Intel in PCs and servers. Those gains have buoyed AMD stock.\nChip foundry Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM) produces AMD's chips.\nSu also is overseeing a potentially transformative acquisition. On Oct. 27, AMD announced an all-stock deal worth $35 billion to buyXilinx(XLNX) to expand its growing data-center business. However, AMD stock fell on theXilinx acquisition news. Critics said the acquisition complicates AMD's \"clean\" investor story around market share gains in processors.\nIntel Losing Market Share To AMD\nIn the fourth quarter, Intel regained market share from AMD in CPUs for desktop and notebook PCs, according to Mercury Research. That ended a three-year streak of market share gains by AMD in the PC segment on a quarter-to-quarter basis. AMD also suffered supply constraints with its contract manufacturer in the period.\nAMD's unit share of desktop PC processor sales was 19.3% in the fourth quarter, down from 20.1% in the third quarter. However, it was up from 18.3% in the year-earlier period.\nAMD's unit share of notebook PC processor sales was 19% in the December quarter, down from 20.2% in the September quarter. But it was up from 16.2% in the year-earlier period.\nHowever, AMD continued to gain share in CPUs for servers during the fourth quarter. Its server CPU market share was 7.1% in the December quarter. That compares with 6.6% in the September quarter and 4.5% in the year-earlier quarter, Mercury said.\nAdvanced Micro Devices News: New PC, Gaming Chips\nOn Oct. 8, AMD introduced its next-generation Ryzen processors for desktop computers. It described itsRyzen 5000 series central processing unitsas the \"fastest gaming CPUs in the world.\" The Ryzen 5000 series products are aimed at PC gamers and content creators.\nOn Jan. 12, during a keynote speech at the virtual CES 2021 tech conference, Chief Executive Su introduced the company's newRyzen 5000 Series mobile processors. She called the chips \"the most powerful PC processors ever built for ultrathin and gaming notebooks.\" However, AMD stock fell 2% that day.\nThe next potential catalyst for AMD stock will be March 3. On that date, AMD plans to introduce the newest addition to its Radeon RX family of high-performance graphic cards.\nAMD Fundamental Analysis\nLate Jan. 26,AMD reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, thanks to strong demand for PC, gaming and data center products. But AMD stock fell 6.2% the next day.\nAMD earned an adjusted 52 cents a share on sales of $3.24 billion in the December quarter. Analysts expected AMD earnings of 47 cents a share on sales of $3.02 billion. On a year-over-year basis, AMD earnings rose 63% while sales climbed 53%.\nFor the current quarter, AMD expects to generate revenue of $3.2 billion, up 79% from the year-earlier period. Wall Street analysts predicted AMD sales of $2.73 billion in the first quarter.\nFor the full year, AMD expects sales to rise 37% to $13.38 billion. Analysts had been looking for 2021 revenue of $12.24 billion.\nAt least six Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on AMD stock after the company's earnings report.\nAMD Stock Technical Analysis\nAMD stock sank to a nearly four-decade low of 1.61 a share in July 2015 before starting its epic recovery.\nOn Nov. 30, AMD stock broke out of a fourth-stage,double-bottom basewith abuy pointof 88.82, according toIBD MarketSmithcharts. It notched a record high of 99.23 on Jan. 11.\nFor two months after itsbreakout, AMD stock traded in and out of the5% chase zone. However, it triggered around-trip sell signalafter retreating from a breakout gain of more than 10% back to below the buy point.\nAMD stock flashed anothersell signalon Feb. 23 when it dropped 7% to 8% below the buy point of its breakout. It ended the regular session Feb. 26 in the sell zone at 84.51.\nAMD stock has anIBD Relative Strength Ratingof 62. That means it has outperformed 62% of stocks on the market over the past 12 months. The best growth stocks typically have RS Ratings of at least 80. And AMD'srelative strength linehas declined since mid-December as it underperforms the S&P 500 index.\nIt has anIBD Accumulation/Distribution Ratingof B-, indicating some institutional buying of AMD shares.\nAMD stock is on theIBD 50 listof top-performing growth stocks.\nIs AMD Stock A Buy Right Now?\nAMD stock is not a buy right now. It is trading well below its50-day moving average line, a negative sign.\nAMD stock will need to form anew basein theright market conditionsbefore setting a new potential buy point. Check outIBD's Big Picture columnfor the current market direction.\nAMD stock has anIBD Composite Ratingof 95 out of a best-possible 99. IBD's Composite Rating combines five separate proprietary ratings into one easy-to-use rating. The best growth stocks have a Composite Rating of 90 or better.\nTheIBD Stock Checkuptool ranks AMD in fourth place in IBD's fabless semiconductor industry group. So, there are better stocks in the group to consider.\nAlso, the fabless chipmaker group ranks No. 88 out of 197 industry groups that IBD tracks. Growth stock investors should focus on leading stocks in the top 40 industry groups.\nTo find thebest stocks to buy or watch, check outIBD Stock Listsas well as IBD'sLeaderboard,MarketSmithandSwingTraderplatforms.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362942970,"gmtCreate":1614591330890,"gmtModify":1703478555327,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish ahead?","listText":"Bullish ahead?","text":"Bullish ahead?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362942970","repostId":"1117028517","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361024352,"gmtCreate":1614180438576,"gmtModify":1631891936783,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish","listText":"Bullish","text":"Bullish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361024352","repostId":"1197533827","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197533827","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614160523,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197533827?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 17:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197533827","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-199","content":"<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但2001年，我们发出同样的文献资料，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 17:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但2001年，我们发出同样的文献资料，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1197533827","content_text":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.\nIgnore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.\nChurchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”\nCCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.\nThey’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.\nReviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc. at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.\nMany questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.\nPiling into ARK\nThese days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.\nBut I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com. (I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):\n“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.\nLet me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”\nThe hangover\nTelecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.\nHere’s what George had to say in 2002:\n“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.\nMany of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.\nCCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ARKK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360444090,"gmtCreate":1613970898210,"gmtModify":1631891936785,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish ahead","listText":"Bullish ahead","text":"Bullish ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360444090","repostId":"1117860387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360213156,"gmtCreate":1613922581575,"gmtModify":1631891936788,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360213156","repostId":"1194607255","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387679997,"gmtCreate":1613747059519,"gmtModify":1631891936793,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good..","listText":"good..","text":"good..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387679997","repostId":"2112881103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387352337,"gmtCreate":1613723403029,"gmtModify":1631891936795,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Commodity&nbsp;and equtity bullish","listText":"Commodity&nbsp;and equtity bullish","text":"Commodity and equtity bullish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387352337","repostId":"1122128084","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385669267,"gmtCreate":1613543855259,"gmtModify":1631891936799,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385669267","repostId":"1183374479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183374479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613539638,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183374479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 13:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New York State Sues Amazon Over Worker Treatment During Covid-19 Pandemic<blockquote>纽约州就Covid-19大流行期间的工人待遇起诉亚马逊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183374479","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Company says attorney general’s case doesn't present accurate picture of its pandemic response\nNew Y","content":"<p>Company says attorney general’s case doesn't present accurate picture of its pandemic response</p><p><blockquote>公司表示，总检察长的案件并没有准确反映其应对大流行的情况</blockquote></p><p> New York’s attorney general has filed a lawsuit against Amazon.com Inc. that accuses the online retailer of not doing enough to protect workers in the state from the coronavirus.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州总检察长对亚马逊公司提起诉讼，指控这家在线零售商在保护该州工人免受冠状病毒感染方面做得不够。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, Amazon&nbsp;sued New York’s attorney general&nbsp;to prevent the state from taking legal action against the company over its handling of worker safety during the pandemic and the firing of one of its warehouse workers last year.</p><p><blockquote>上周，亚马逊起诉纽约州总检察长，以阻止该州就该公司在大流行期间对工人安全的处理以及去年解雇一名仓库工人采取法律行动。</blockquote></p><p> “Throughout the historic pandemic, Amazon has repeatedly and persistently failed to comply with its obligation to institute reasonable and adequate measures to protect its workers from the spread of the virus in its New York City facilities,” New York state Attorney General Letitia James wrote in a complaint filed on Tuesday in the state Supreme Court.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州总检察长利蒂西亚·詹姆斯(Letitia James)在周二向州最高法院提交的诉状中写道：“在这场历史性的大流行中，亚马逊一再持续未能履行其义务，采取合理和充分的措施来保护其员工免受病毒在纽约市设施中传播的影响。”</blockquote></p><p> Amazon, a company spokeswoman said, doesn’t “believe the Attorney General’s filing presents an accurate picture of Amazon’s industry-leading response to the pandemic.”</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司发言人表示，“不相信总检察长的文件准确反映了亚马逊行业领先的疫情应对措施。”</blockquote></p><p> Ms. James said in the complaint that Amazon failed to comply with state cleaning and disinfection requirements at its facilities. The company also didn’t adequately notify employees of infected co-workers, according to the complaint.</p><p><blockquote>詹姆斯女士在诉状中表示，亚马逊未能遵守国家对其设施的清洁和消毒要求。诉状称，该公司也没有充分通知员工受感染的同事。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New York State Sues Amazon Over Worker Treatment During Covid-19 Pandemic<blockquote>纽约州就Covid-19大流行期间的工人待遇起诉亚马逊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew York State Sues Amazon Over Worker Treatment During Covid-19 Pandemic<blockquote>纽约州就Covid-19大流行期间的工人待遇起诉亚马逊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 13:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Company says attorney general’s case doesn't present accurate picture of its pandemic response</p><p><blockquote>公司表示，总检察长的案件并没有准确反映其应对大流行的情况</blockquote></p><p> New York’s attorney general has filed a lawsuit against Amazon.com Inc. that accuses the online retailer of not doing enough to protect workers in the state from the coronavirus.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州总检察长对亚马逊公司提起诉讼，指控这家在线零售商在保护该州工人免受冠状病毒感染方面做得不够。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, Amazon&nbsp;sued New York’s attorney general&nbsp;to prevent the state from taking legal action against the company over its handling of worker safety during the pandemic and the firing of one of its warehouse workers last year.</p><p><blockquote>上周，亚马逊起诉纽约州总检察长，以阻止该州就该公司在大流行期间对工人安全的处理以及去年解雇一名仓库工人采取法律行动。</blockquote></p><p> “Throughout the historic pandemic, Amazon has repeatedly and persistently failed to comply with its obligation to institute reasonable and adequate measures to protect its workers from the spread of the virus in its New York City facilities,” New York state Attorney General Letitia James wrote in a complaint filed on Tuesday in the state Supreme Court.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州总检察长利蒂西亚·詹姆斯(Letitia James)在周二向州最高法院提交的诉状中写道：“在这场历史性的大流行中，亚马逊一再持续未能履行其义务，采取合理和充分的措施来保护其员工免受病毒在纽约市设施中传播的影响。”</blockquote></p><p> Amazon, a company spokeswoman said, doesn’t “believe the Attorney General’s filing presents an accurate picture of Amazon’s industry-leading response to the pandemic.”</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司发言人表示，“不相信总检察长的文件准确反映了亚马逊行业领先的疫情应对措施。”</blockquote></p><p> Ms. James said in the complaint that Amazon failed to comply with state cleaning and disinfection requirements at its facilities. The company also didn’t adequately notify employees of infected co-workers, according to the complaint.</p><p><blockquote>詹姆斯女士在诉状中表示，亚马逊未能遵守国家对其设施的清洁和消毒要求。诉状称，该公司也没有充分通知员工受感染的同事。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-state-sues-amazon-over-worker-treatment-during-covid-19-pandemic-11613535922?mod=hp_lista_pos1\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-state-sues-amazon-over-worker-treatment-during-covid-19-pandemic-11613535922?mod=hp_lista_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183374479","content_text":"Company says attorney general’s case doesn't present accurate picture of its pandemic response\nNew York’s attorney general has filed a lawsuit against Amazon.com Inc. that accuses the online retailer of not doing enough to protect workers in the state from the coronavirus.\nLast week, Amazon sued New York’s attorney general to prevent the state from taking legal action against the company over its handling of worker safety during the pandemic and the firing of one of its warehouse workers last year.\n“Throughout the historic pandemic, Amazon has repeatedly and persistently failed to comply with its obligation to institute reasonable and adequate measures to protect its workers from the spread of the virus in its New York City facilities,” New York state Attorney General Letitia James wrote in a complaint filed on Tuesday in the state Supreme Court.\nAmazon, a company spokeswoman said, doesn’t “believe the Attorney General’s filing presents an accurate picture of Amazon’s industry-leading response to the pandemic.”\nMs. James said in the complaint that Amazon failed to comply with state cleaning and disinfection requirements at its facilities. The company also didn’t adequately notify employees of infected co-workers, according to the complaint.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385669391,"gmtCreate":1613543804213,"gmtModify":1631891936798,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Consistanly bullish..good","listText":"Consistanly bullish..good","text":"Consistanly bullish..good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385669391","repostId":"1158089303","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385660128,"gmtCreate":1613543640464,"gmtModify":1631891936801,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Again.","listText":"Again.","text":"Again.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385660128","repostId":"1184726502","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184726502","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613542262,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184726502?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 14:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184726502","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year\nCHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will n","content":"<p>Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，美国国债收益率大幅上升</blockquote></p><p> CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.</p><p><blockquote>北卡罗来纳州教堂山——利率上升不会破坏这次牛市。</blockquote></p><p> That’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这是至关重要的信息，因为利率在过去六个月，尤其是过去几周大幅上升。例如，10年期国债收益率较去年8月上涨了一倍多，从0.52%升至目前的1.20%。其中很大一部分（27个基点）是自今年年初以来才出现的。</blockquote></p><p> I am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my&nbsp;column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.</p><p><blockquote>我重新审视这个话题，因为许多读者显然不相信我本月早些时候的专栏，即利率和股市回报之间没有历史相关性。正如你们中的一些人指出的，该专栏关注的是分析20世纪20年代以来的所有数据时出现的摘要模式。这与特别关注牛市顶部的利率趋势不同。这就是我在本专栏中关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actually<i>lower</i>than where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历，自1962年（我的10年期国债收益率数据库可以追溯到1962年）以来，已经经历了17次熊市。在这17个案例中的10个案例中，熊市开始时的10年期国债收益率实际上是<i>降低</i>而不是三个月前的水平。换句话说，在超过一半的熊市中，10年期国债收益率在之前牛市的最后三个月下跌。</blockquote></p><p> You shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>然而，你不应该从这个结果中得出结论，除非利率下降，否则熊市不会发生。请注意，在这17个熊市中，有7个熊市的利率在熊市开始前的三个月内上升。要得出的适当结论是，利率趋势并不是牛市何时结束的可靠指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Fed Funds rate?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>联邦基金利率呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> This conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这个结论与我们多年来反复被告知的内容背道而驰，因此我想通过关注联邦基金利率来仔细检查它。这是由美联储公开市场委员会直接制定的短期利率，多年来一些分析师认为，这是股市投资者最应该密切关注的利率。例如，根据埃德森·古尔德著名的“三步一跌规则”，美联储连续三次加息（“三步”）后，股市就会下跌（“跌倒”）。</blockquote></p><p> Gould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.</p><p><blockquote>当然，古尔德是20世纪六七十年代最著名的技术分析师之一。然而，无论他的统治在前几十年有多大的有效性，自20世纪80年代初以来就没有奏效过。就在那时，美联储将其政策制定立场转向以联邦基金利率为目标；在此之前，它专注于M1货币供应。在此后九次牛市中的七次牛市中，联邦基金利率最近的变化是降息，而不是加息。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道当前的牛市是否已接近尾声。但我要指出的是，联邦基金利率最近一次变动是在去年3月，当时美联储将利率下调了整整一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>底线？不要从利率走势来判断牛市何时结束。</blockquote></p><p> This doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着快乐的日子又来了，让我赶紧补充一下。仅仅因为利率上升并不像许多人认为的那样令人担忧，并不意味着没有很多其他担忧。肯定有，高估是最重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 14:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，美国国债收益率大幅上升</blockquote></p><p> CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.</p><p><blockquote>北卡罗来纳州教堂山——利率上升不会破坏这次牛市。</blockquote></p><p> That’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这是至关重要的信息，因为利率在过去六个月，尤其是过去几周大幅上升。例如，10年期国债收益率较去年8月上涨了一倍多，从0.52%升至目前的1.20%。其中很大一部分（27个基点）是自今年年初以来才出现的。</blockquote></p><p> I am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my&nbsp;column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.</p><p><blockquote>我重新审视这个话题，因为许多读者显然不相信我本月早些时候的专栏，即利率和股市回报之间没有历史相关性。正如你们中的一些人指出的，该专栏关注的是分析20世纪20年代以来的所有数据时出现的摘要模式。这与特别关注牛市顶部的利率趋势不同。这就是我在本专栏中关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actually<i>lower</i>than where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历，自1962年（我的10年期国债收益率数据库可以追溯到1962年）以来，已经经历了17次熊市。在这17个案例中的10个案例中，熊市开始时的10年期国债收益率实际上是<i>降低</i>而不是三个月前的水平。换句话说，在超过一半的熊市中，10年期国债收益率在之前牛市的最后三个月下跌。</blockquote></p><p> You shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>然而，你不应该从这个结果中得出结论，除非利率下降，否则熊市不会发生。请注意，在这17个熊市中，有7个熊市的利率在熊市开始前的三个月内上升。要得出的适当结论是，利率趋势并不是牛市何时结束的可靠指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Fed Funds rate?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>联邦基金利率呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> This conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这个结论与我们多年来反复被告知的内容背道而驰，因此我想通过关注联邦基金利率来仔细检查它。这是由美联储公开市场委员会直接制定的短期利率，多年来一些分析师认为，这是股市投资者最应该密切关注的利率。例如，根据埃德森·古尔德著名的“三步一跌规则”，美联储连续三次加息（“三步”）后，股市就会下跌（“跌倒”）。</blockquote></p><p> Gould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.</p><p><blockquote>当然，古尔德是20世纪六七十年代最著名的技术分析师之一。然而，无论他的统治在前几十年有多大的有效性，自20世纪80年代初以来就没有奏效过。就在那时，美联储将其政策制定立场转向以联邦基金利率为目标；在此之前，它专注于M1货币供应。在此后九次牛市中的七次牛市中，联邦基金利率最近的变化是降息，而不是加息。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道当前的牛市是否已接近尾声。但我要指出的是，联邦基金利率最近一次变动是在去年3月，当时美联储将利率下调了整整一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>底线？不要从利率走势来判断牛市何时结束。</blockquote></p><p> This doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着快乐的日子又来了，让我赶紧补充一下。仅仅因为利率上升并不像许多人认为的那样令人担忧，并不意味着没有很多其他担忧。肯定有，高估是最重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-signals-the-top-of-a-bull-market-in-stocks-not-rising-interest-rates-11613490352?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-signals-the-top-of-a-bull-market-in-stocks-not-rising-interest-rates-11613490352?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1184726502","content_text":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year\nCHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.\nThat’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.\nI am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.\nSince 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actuallylowerthan where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.\nYou shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.\nWhat about the Fed Funds rate?\nThis conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.\nGould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.\nI have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.\nThe bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.\nThis doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385913640,"gmtCreate":1613492759480,"gmtModify":1631891936805,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","idStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good..bull market ahead","listText":"Good..bull market ahead","text":"Good..bull market ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385913640","repostId":"1108705396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108705396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613469786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108705396?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 18:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"With Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy<blockquote>随着拜登的崛起，华尔街经济学家越来越看好美国经济</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108705396","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a doubl","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;</b>The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington&nbsp;and millions of families were about to&nbsp;lose crucial benefits.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>2020年底，饱受新冠疫情蹂躏的美国经济濒临陷入双底衰退。疫情正在加剧，僵局使华盛顿陷入瘫痪，数百万家庭即将失去重要福利。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward two months, and the&nbsp;economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>快进两个月，经济仍在挣扎，但对复苏的信心正在迅速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家正在迅速上调GDP和失业率预测，并将美联储能够提高最低利率的日期提前。高盛预测美国经济将以三十多年来最快的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> The renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the&nbsp;health crisis is easing&nbsp;and Uncle Sam is&nbsp;coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.</p><p><blockquote>重新燃起的乐观情绪是由两个主要因素推动的：健康危机正在缓解，山姆大叔正在提供惊人数量的援助——比几个月前似乎多了数千亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> After supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.</p><p><blockquote>根据穆迪分析公司的数据，继去年提供4万亿美元的救助后，华盛顿预计将在2021年再提供2万亿美元的赤字融资支持。这相当于美国年度GDP的四分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p> \"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪(Mark Zandi)告诉CNN Business：“这是大量的经济动力。”</blockquote></p><p> The turning point happened last month&nbsp;when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for&nbsp;President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.</p><p><blockquote>转折点发生在上个月，当时民主党在佐治亚州的决选中以微弱优势控制了美国参议院。这为乔·拜登总统的1.9万亿美元美国救援计划开辟了道路，该计划包括1400美元的刺激支票、提高失业救济金以及向州和地方政府提供3500亿美元的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Summer mini-boom'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“夏季迷你热潮”</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a&nbsp;forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p><p><blockquote>在佐治亚州选举之前，赞迪认为美国经济要到2023年春季或夏季才能恢复充分就业（强劲的劳动力市场，失业率为4%）。现在，他预计这一成就将在明年春天实现，这与财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的预测相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行经济学家在最近给客户的一份报告中写道，“超级财政政策”意味着美国经济增长快于其他国家的论点“似乎日益强烈”。</blockquote></p><p> Oxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Gregory Daco呼吁美国出现“夏季小繁荣”，2021年GDP增长5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"</p><p><blockquote>同样，杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家表示，“爆炸性的收入增长（得益于财政刺激）可能会推动美国GDP今年增长6.4%，明年增长近5%。”</blockquote></p><p> \"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞在最近的一份报告中告诉客户：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是我们的预测可能过于保守。”他指出，其观点仅纳入了拜登计划的1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，高盛本周早些时候将2021年GDP预期上调至6.8%，因为这家华尔街银行现在假设额外财政救助为1.5万亿美元，高于此前的1.1万亿美元。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，如果高盛的预测成真，这将是美国自1989年以来最快的年度GDP增长。</blockquote></p><p> The rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的GDP预测远高于美联储的要求。去年12月，美联储预计2021年GDP增长仅为4.2%，并表示失业率要到2023年才会降至4%以下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-dip recession averted</b></p><p><blockquote><b>避免了双底衰退</b></blockquote></p><p> The Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储对经济预测趋于保守。而且，至关重要的是，美联储的预测是在DC的政治功能失调给美国经济蒙上阴影的时候发布的。</blockquote></p><p> For months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，共和党和民主党试图就延长计划失效的关键失业和驱逐福利以及向小企业提供更多可原谅贷款达成协议，但未能达成协议。然后当最终达成协议时，前总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要炸毁它。</blockquote></p><p> At the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.</p><p><blockquote>在最后一刻，特朗普将9000亿美元的救助计划签署成为法律，避免了经济灾难。</blockquote></p><p> \"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“如果没有这一点，我们将陷入双底衰退。”</blockquote></p><p> Slammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States&nbsp;added just 49,000 jobs in January.</p><p><blockquote>受疫情冲击，美国经济一瘸一拐地走到2020年底，今年开局缓慢。12月，雇主自春季以来首次裁员。美国1月份仅增加了49,000个就业岗位。</blockquote></p><p> Jobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.</p><p><blockquote>申请失业救济人数仍然高得惊人。仅上周就有793,000名美国人首次申请失业救济。就背景而言，这高于大衰退的最严重水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vaccines to the rescue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>疫苗拯救生命</b></blockquote></p><p> But there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情仍有一线希望。尽管Covid死亡人数仍然高得难以想象，但住院人数和病例数已经下降。</blockquote></p><p> Critically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，冠状病毒疫苗的推出正在加速。据摩根士丹利称，在总共分发的6600万支疫苗中，约70%已经接种。</blockquote></p><p> And Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday&nbsp;that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.</p><p><blockquote>美国顶级传染病专家安东尼·福奇博士周四告诉NBC新闻，美国可能能够在夏季中期或结束前为大多数美国人接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些使得包括加利福尼亚、纽约和新泽西在内的州放松了对餐馆和其他小企业的健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> That's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants&nbsp;force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说疫情已经结束。事实上，一个风险是，新的Covid-19变种迫使美国各州和城市再次收紧健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Low-wage workers are still hurting badly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>低薪工人仍然受到严重伤害</b></blockquote></p><p> Against this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，许多经济学家敦促华盛顿推进激进的财政刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> \"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“请把脚平放在油门上。”“政策制定101说，错误在于做得太多，而不是做得太少。”</blockquote></p><p> Doing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.</p><p><blockquote>做得太少可能会加剧美国的不平等问题。这是因为与之前的衰退相比，这次衰退对餐馆、儿童保育和酒店业等遭受重创行业的低收入工人造成了不成比例的伤害。</blockquote></p><p> Employment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据Opportunity Insights经济跟踪系统的数据，低工资工人（年收入低于27,000美元的人）的就业水平仍下降了20%以上。相比之下，年收入超过6万美元的人的就业水平高于危机前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的经济学家在给客户的一份报告中写道：“如果收入和种族群体之间的充分就业情况不明显，拜登的团队就不太可能为实现充分就业而开香槟。”</blockquote></p><p> However, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，前美联储官员、现任Quill Intelligence首席执行官丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯(Danielle DiMartino Booth)担心，专注于提供收入，而不是投资基础设施和再培训工人，会让该国沉迷于刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯说：“经济将变成这个依赖患者，总是等待下一次注射。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Bring it on'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“来吧”</b></blockquote></p><p> Some economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington&nbsp;overheats the economy by injecting too much support.</p><p><blockquote>包括前财政部长拉里·萨默斯在内的一些经济学家警告说，华盛顿注入过多支持可能会导致经济过热。</blockquote></p><p> \"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯表示：“未来几个月可能会出现相当大的通胀恐慌，这将考验债券市场和美联储。”</blockquote></p><p> And that in turn would spook the&nbsp;red-hot stock market.</p><p><blockquote>这反过来又会惊动炙手可热的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Fed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.</p><p><blockquote>美联储观察人士正在提前确定美联储何时能够结束紧急政策的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Citing \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>高盛援引“通胀前景走强的迹象”，目前预计美联储将在2022年初开始“缩减”资产购买规模，并在2024年上半年加息。</blockquote></p><p> Zandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.</p><p><blockquote>赞迪并没有因为通货膨胀而失眠，主要是因为美国还远未实现充分就业。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这是一种被大大夸大的担忧，”他说。“来吧。十多年来，我们最大的问题一直是低通胀。更高的通胀将是一个高级问题。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy<blockquote>随着拜登的崛起，华尔街经济学家越来越看好美国经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy<blockquote>随着拜登的崛起，华尔街经济学家越来越看好美国经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 18:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;</b>The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington&nbsp;and millions of families were about to&nbsp;lose crucial benefits.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>2020年底，饱受新冠疫情蹂躏的美国经济濒临陷入双底衰退。疫情正在加剧，僵局使华盛顿陷入瘫痪，数百万家庭即将失去重要福利。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward two months, and the&nbsp;economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>快进两个月，经济仍在挣扎，但对复苏的信心正在迅速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家正在迅速上调GDP和失业率预测，并将美联储能够提高最低利率的日期提前。高盛预测美国经济将以三十多年来最快的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> The renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the&nbsp;health crisis is easing&nbsp;and Uncle Sam is&nbsp;coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.</p><p><blockquote>重新燃起的乐观情绪是由两个主要因素推动的：健康危机正在缓解，山姆大叔正在提供惊人数量的援助——比几个月前似乎多了数千亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> After supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.</p><p><blockquote>根据穆迪分析公司的数据，继去年提供4万亿美元的救助后，华盛顿预计将在2021年再提供2万亿美元的赤字融资支持。这相当于美国年度GDP的四分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p> \"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪(Mark Zandi)告诉CNN Business：“这是大量的经济动力。”</blockquote></p><p> The turning point happened last month&nbsp;when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for&nbsp;President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.</p><p><blockquote>转折点发生在上个月，当时民主党在佐治亚州的决选中以微弱优势控制了美国参议院。这为乔·拜登总统的1.9万亿美元美国救援计划开辟了道路，该计划包括1400美元的刺激支票、提高失业救济金以及向州和地方政府提供3500亿美元的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Summer mini-boom'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“夏季迷你热潮”</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a&nbsp;forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p><p><blockquote>在佐治亚州选举之前，赞迪认为美国经济要到2023年春季或夏季才能恢复充分就业（强劲的劳动力市场，失业率为4%）。现在，他预计这一成就将在明年春天实现，这与财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的预测相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行经济学家在最近给客户的一份报告中写道，“超级财政政策”意味着美国经济增长快于其他国家的论点“似乎日益强烈”。</blockquote></p><p> Oxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Gregory Daco呼吁美国出现“夏季小繁荣”，2021年GDP增长5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"</p><p><blockquote>同样，杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家表示，“爆炸性的收入增长（得益于财政刺激）可能会推动美国GDP今年增长6.4%，明年增长近5%。”</blockquote></p><p> \"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞在最近的一份报告中告诉客户：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是我们的预测可能过于保守。”他指出，其观点仅纳入了拜登计划的1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，高盛本周早些时候将2021年GDP预期上调至6.8%，因为这家华尔街银行现在假设额外财政救助为1.5万亿美元，高于此前的1.1万亿美元。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，如果高盛的预测成真，这将是美国自1989年以来最快的年度GDP增长。</blockquote></p><p> The rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的GDP预测远高于美联储的要求。去年12月，美联储预计2021年GDP增长仅为4.2%，并表示失业率要到2023年才会降至4%以下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-dip recession averted</b></p><p><blockquote><b>避免了双底衰退</b></blockquote></p><p> The Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储对经济预测趋于保守。而且，至关重要的是，美联储的预测是在DC的政治功能失调给美国经济蒙上阴影的时候发布的。</blockquote></p><p> For months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，共和党和民主党试图就延长计划失效的关键失业和驱逐福利以及向小企业提供更多可原谅贷款达成协议，但未能达成协议。然后当最终达成协议时，前总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要炸毁它。</blockquote></p><p> At the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.</p><p><blockquote>在最后一刻，特朗普将9000亿美元的救助计划签署成为法律，避免了经济灾难。</blockquote></p><p> \"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“如果没有这一点，我们将陷入双底衰退。”</blockquote></p><p> Slammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States&nbsp;added just 49,000 jobs in January.</p><p><blockquote>受疫情冲击，美国经济一瘸一拐地走到2020年底，今年开局缓慢。12月，雇主自春季以来首次裁员。美国1月份仅增加了49,000个就业岗位。</blockquote></p><p> Jobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.</p><p><blockquote>申请失业救济人数仍然高得惊人。仅上周就有793,000名美国人首次申请失业救济。就背景而言，这高于大衰退的最严重水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vaccines to the rescue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>疫苗拯救生命</b></blockquote></p><p> But there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情仍有一线希望。尽管Covid死亡人数仍然高得难以想象，但住院人数和病例数已经下降。</blockquote></p><p> Critically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，冠状病毒疫苗的推出正在加速。据摩根士丹利称，在总共分发的6600万支疫苗中，约70%已经接种。</blockquote></p><p> And Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday&nbsp;that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.</p><p><blockquote>美国顶级传染病专家安东尼·福奇博士周四告诉NBC新闻，美国可能能够在夏季中期或结束前为大多数美国人接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些使得包括加利福尼亚、纽约和新泽西在内的州放松了对餐馆和其他小企业的健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> That's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants&nbsp;force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说疫情已经结束。事实上，一个风险是，新的Covid-19变种迫使美国各州和城市再次收紧健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Low-wage workers are still hurting badly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>低薪工人仍然受到严重伤害</b></blockquote></p><p> Against this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，许多经济学家敦促华盛顿推进激进的财政刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> \"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“请把脚平放在油门上。”“政策制定101说，错误在于做得太多，而不是做得太少。”</blockquote></p><p> Doing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.</p><p><blockquote>做得太少可能会加剧美国的不平等问题。这是因为与之前的衰退相比，这次衰退对餐馆、儿童保育和酒店业等遭受重创行业的低收入工人造成了不成比例的伤害。</blockquote></p><p> Employment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据Opportunity Insights经济跟踪系统的数据，低工资工人（年收入低于27,000美元的人）的就业水平仍下降了20%以上。相比之下，年收入超过6万美元的人的就业水平高于危机前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的经济学家在给客户的一份报告中写道：“如果收入和种族群体之间的充分就业情况不明显，拜登的团队就不太可能为实现充分就业而开香槟。”</blockquote></p><p> However, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，前美联储官员、现任Quill Intelligence首席执行官丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯(Danielle DiMartino Booth)担心，专注于提供收入，而不是投资基础设施和再培训工人，会让该国沉迷于刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯说：“经济将变成这个依赖患者，总是等待下一次注射。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Bring it on'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“来吧”</b></blockquote></p><p> Some economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington&nbsp;overheats the economy by injecting too much support.</p><p><blockquote>包括前财政部长拉里·萨默斯在内的一些经济学家警告说，华盛顿注入过多支持可能会导致经济过热。</blockquote></p><p> \"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯表示：“未来几个月可能会出现相当大的通胀恐慌，这将考验债券市场和美联储。”</blockquote></p><p> And that in turn would spook the&nbsp;red-hot stock market.</p><p><blockquote>这反过来又会惊动炙手可热的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Fed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.</p><p><blockquote>美联储观察人士正在提前确定美联储何时能够结束紧急政策的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Citing \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>高盛援引“通胀前景走强的迹象”，目前预计美联储将在2022年初开始“缩减”资产购买规模，并在2024年上半年加息。</blockquote></p><p> Zandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.</p><p><blockquote>赞迪并没有因为通货膨胀而失眠，主要是因为美国还远未实现充分就业。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这是一种被大大夸大的担忧，”他说。“来吧。十多年来，我们最大的问题一直是低通胀。更高的通胀将是一个高级问题。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108705396","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington and millions of families were about to lose crucial benefits.\nFast forward two months, and the economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.\nEconomists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.\nThe renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the health crisis is easing and Uncle Sam is coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.\nAfter supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.\n\"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.\nThe turning point happened last month when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.\n'Summer mini-boom'\nBefore the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.\n\"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.\nOxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.\nLikewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"\n\"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.\nIndeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.\nThe rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.\nDouble-dip recession averted\nThe Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.\nFor months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.\nAt the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.\n\"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.\nSlammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States added just 49,000 jobs in January.\nJobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.\nVaccines to the rescue\nBut there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.\nCritically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.\nAnd Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.\nAll of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.\nThat's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.\nLow-wage workers are still hurting badly\nAgainst this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.\n\"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"\nDoing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.\nEmployment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.\n\"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.\nHowever, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.\n\"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.\n'Bring it on'\nSome economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington overheats the economy by injecting too much support.\n\"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.\nAnd that in turn would spook the red-hot stock market.\nFed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.\nCiting \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.\nZandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.\n\"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":360213156,"gmtCreate":1613922581575,"gmtModify":1631891936788,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574772553430673","authorIdStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360213156","repostId":"1194607255","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385660128,"gmtCreate":1613543640464,"gmtModify":1631891936801,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574772553430673","authorIdStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Again.","listText":"Again.","text":"Again.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385660128","repostId":"1184726502","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184726502","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613542262,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184726502?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 14:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184726502","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year\nCHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will n","content":"<p>Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，美国国债收益率大幅上升</blockquote></p><p> CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.</p><p><blockquote>北卡罗来纳州教堂山——利率上升不会破坏这次牛市。</blockquote></p><p> That’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这是至关重要的信息，因为利率在过去六个月，尤其是过去几周大幅上升。例如，10年期国债收益率较去年8月上涨了一倍多，从0.52%升至目前的1.20%。其中很大一部分（27个基点）是自今年年初以来才出现的。</blockquote></p><p> I am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my&nbsp;column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.</p><p><blockquote>我重新审视这个话题，因为许多读者显然不相信我本月早些时候的专栏，即利率和股市回报之间没有历史相关性。正如你们中的一些人指出的，该专栏关注的是分析20世纪20年代以来的所有数据时出现的摘要模式。这与特别关注牛市顶部的利率趋势不同。这就是我在本专栏中关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actually<i>lower</i>than where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历，自1962年（我的10年期国债收益率数据库可以追溯到1962年）以来，已经经历了17次熊市。在这17个案例中的10个案例中，熊市开始时的10年期国债收益率实际上是<i>降低</i>而不是三个月前的水平。换句话说，在超过一半的熊市中，10年期国债收益率在之前牛市的最后三个月下跌。</blockquote></p><p> You shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>然而，你不应该从这个结果中得出结论，除非利率下降，否则熊市不会发生。请注意，在这17个熊市中，有7个熊市的利率在熊市开始前的三个月内上升。要得出的适当结论是，利率趋势并不是牛市何时结束的可靠指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Fed Funds rate?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>联邦基金利率呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> This conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这个结论与我们多年来反复被告知的内容背道而驰，因此我想通过关注联邦基金利率来仔细检查它。这是由美联储公开市场委员会直接制定的短期利率，多年来一些分析师认为，这是股市投资者最应该密切关注的利率。例如，根据埃德森·古尔德著名的“三步一跌规则”，美联储连续三次加息（“三步”）后，股市就会下跌（“跌倒”）。</blockquote></p><p> Gould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.</p><p><blockquote>当然，古尔德是20世纪六七十年代最著名的技术分析师之一。然而，无论他的统治在前几十年有多大的有效性，自20世纪80年代初以来就没有奏效过。就在那时，美联储将其政策制定立场转向以联邦基金利率为目标；在此之前，它专注于M1货币供应。在此后九次牛市中的七次牛市中，联邦基金利率最近的变化是降息，而不是加息。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道当前的牛市是否已接近尾声。但我要指出的是，联邦基金利率最近一次变动是在去年3月，当时美联储将利率下调了整整一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>底线？不要从利率走势来判断牛市何时结束。</blockquote></p><p> This doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着快乐的日子又来了，让我赶紧补充一下。仅仅因为利率上升并不像许多人认为的那样令人担忧，并不意味着没有很多其他担忧。肯定有，高估是最重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 14:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，美国国债收益率大幅上升</blockquote></p><p> CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.</p><p><blockquote>北卡罗来纳州教堂山——利率上升不会破坏这次牛市。</blockquote></p><p> That’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这是至关重要的信息，因为利率在过去六个月，尤其是过去几周大幅上升。例如，10年期国债收益率较去年8月上涨了一倍多，从0.52%升至目前的1.20%。其中很大一部分（27个基点）是自今年年初以来才出现的。</blockquote></p><p> I am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my&nbsp;column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.</p><p><blockquote>我重新审视这个话题，因为许多读者显然不相信我本月早些时候的专栏，即利率和股市回报之间没有历史相关性。正如你们中的一些人指出的，该专栏关注的是分析20世纪20年代以来的所有数据时出现的摘要模式。这与特别关注牛市顶部的利率趋势不同。这就是我在本专栏中关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actually<i>lower</i>than where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历，自1962年（我的10年期国债收益率数据库可以追溯到1962年）以来，已经经历了17次熊市。在这17个案例中的10个案例中，熊市开始时的10年期国债收益率实际上是<i>降低</i>而不是三个月前的水平。换句话说，在超过一半的熊市中，10年期国债收益率在之前牛市的最后三个月下跌。</blockquote></p><p> You shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>然而，你不应该从这个结果中得出结论，除非利率下降，否则熊市不会发生。请注意，在这17个熊市中，有7个熊市的利率在熊市开始前的三个月内上升。要得出的适当结论是，利率趋势并不是牛市何时结束的可靠指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Fed Funds rate?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>联邦基金利率呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> This conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这个结论与我们多年来反复被告知的内容背道而驰，因此我想通过关注联邦基金利率来仔细检查它。这是由美联储公开市场委员会直接制定的短期利率，多年来一些分析师认为，这是股市投资者最应该密切关注的利率。例如，根据埃德森·古尔德著名的“三步一跌规则”，美联储连续三次加息（“三步”）后，股市就会下跌（“跌倒”）。</blockquote></p><p> Gould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.</p><p><blockquote>当然，古尔德是20世纪六七十年代最著名的技术分析师之一。然而，无论他的统治在前几十年有多大的有效性，自20世纪80年代初以来就没有奏效过。就在那时，美联储将其政策制定立场转向以联邦基金利率为目标；在此之前，它专注于M1货币供应。在此后九次牛市中的七次牛市中，联邦基金利率最近的变化是降息，而不是加息。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道当前的牛市是否已接近尾声。但我要指出的是，联邦基金利率最近一次变动是在去年3月，当时美联储将利率下调了整整一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>底线？不要从利率走势来判断牛市何时结束。</blockquote></p><p> This doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着快乐的日子又来了，让我赶紧补充一下。仅仅因为利率上升并不像许多人认为的那样令人担忧，并不意味着没有很多其他担忧。肯定有，高估是最重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-signals-the-top-of-a-bull-market-in-stocks-not-rising-interest-rates-11613490352?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-signals-the-top-of-a-bull-market-in-stocks-not-rising-interest-rates-11613490352?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1184726502","content_text":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year\nCHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.\nThat’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.\nI am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.\nSince 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actuallylowerthan where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.\nYou shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.\nWhat about the Fed Funds rate?\nThis conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.\nGould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.\nI have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.\nThe bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.\nThis doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362942970,"gmtCreate":1614591330890,"gmtModify":1703478555327,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574772553430673","authorIdStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish ahead?","listText":"Bullish ahead?","text":"Bullish ahead?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362942970","repostId":"1117028517","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360444090,"gmtCreate":1613970898210,"gmtModify":1631891936785,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574772553430673","authorIdStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish ahead","listText":"Bullish ahead","text":"Bullish ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360444090","repostId":"1117860387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385669391,"gmtCreate":1613543804213,"gmtModify":1631891936798,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574772553430673","authorIdStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Consistanly bullish..good","listText":"Consistanly bullish..good","text":"Consistanly bullish..good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385669391","repostId":"1158089303","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103810089,"gmtCreate":1619765376941,"gmtModify":1631890565775,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574772553430673","authorIdStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103810089","repostId":"1110240077","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3032,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387679997,"gmtCreate":1613747059519,"gmtModify":1631891936793,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574772553430673","authorIdStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good..","listText":"good..","text":"good..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387679997","repostId":"2112881103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108532263,"gmtCreate":1620039664452,"gmtModify":1631890565775,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574772553430673","authorIdStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull market dor this month..","listText":"Bull market dor this month..","text":"Bull market dor this month..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108532263","repostId":"1150131567","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350358505,"gmtCreate":1616162411707,"gmtModify":1631890565786,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574772553430673","authorIdStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350358505","repostId":"1190757715","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190757715","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616161968,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190757715?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 21:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Stock Warren Buffett and Cathie Wood Have in Common and 1 They Should<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特和凯西·伍德共有1只股票，他们应该有1只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190757715","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It might be a surprise to find out that two investors with virtually opposite approaches -- one who ","content":"<p>It might be a surprise to find out that two investors with virtually opposite approaches -- one who invests in large, cheap, iconic companies and the other who rose to fame on the heels of her outlandishly bullish (and accurate) predictions about \"overvalued\" stocks -- would have the same company in their portfolios. Perhaps the bigger surprise is the stock you might expect them to both own that they don't. Let's take a look at the two companies in question and what these successful investors must see.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会惊讶地发现，两个方法几乎相反的投资者——一个投资于大型、廉价、标志性的公司，另一个因她对“高估”股票的异常乐观（且准确）预测而声名鹊起——他们的投资组合中会有同一家公司。也许更大的惊喜是你可能期望他们都拥有的股票，但他们并没有。让我们来看看有问题的两家公司以及这些成功的投资者必须看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p><b>The surprising stock they both own</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他们都拥有的令人惊讶的股票</b></blockquote></p><p>First, it's doubtful that Warren Buffett actually bought<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW), the cloud data warehouse-as-a-service company. In recent years, lieutenants Todd Combs and Ted Weschler have been making more of the investment decisions, and the $750 million in stock<b>BerkshireHathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)purchased before theinitial public offering (IPO)certainly doesn't match the investment style of the legendary nonagenarian. In fact, Buffett hasn't bought an IPO since<b>Ford</b>&nbsp;in 1956. The company does fit the style of Cathie Wood at ARK Invest, a global asset management company focused on disruptive innovation. That said, Snowflake is putting up numbers that would get any investor's attention.</p><p><blockquote>首先，沃伦·巴菲特是否真的购买了值得怀疑<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），云数据仓库即服务公司。近年来，托德·库姆斯中尉和特德·韦施勒中尉一直在做出更多的投资决策，7.5亿美元的股票<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.B）在首次公开募股（IPO）之前购买的当然不符合这位传奇九十多岁老人的投资风格。事实上，巴菲特此后就没有购买过IPO<b>福特</b>1956年。该公司确实符合ARK Invest的Cathie Wood的风格，ARK Invest是一家专注于颠覆性创新的全球资产管理公司。也就是说，Snowflake提供的数据会引起任何投资者的注意。</blockquote></p><p>The company recently reported its full fiscal year earnings, and the growth was jaw-dropping. Fourth-quarter revenue of $178 million was up 116% year over year. Topping that, remaining performance obligations, what customers have signed on to buy, was up 213% over the same point last year. The company has 77 customers that spend more than $1 million per year. That number is up from 65 just three months earlier. Management is projecting between 92% and 96% revenue growth for the current year. Snowflake posted an operating margin of negative 92%. Losing money never sounds good, but that is closer to profitability than the negative 135% for the year ending January 2020 or the negative 192% in 2019. If the company really wanted to turn a profit it could just curb its spending on sales and marketing.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近公布了完整财年的收益，增长令人瞠目结舌。第四季度营收为1.78亿美元，同比增长116%。最重要的是，剩余履约义务（即客户已签署购买的商品）比去年同期增长了213%。该公司有77名每年消费超过100万美元的客户。这个数字比三个月前的65个有所上升。管理层预计今年收入增长92%至96%。Snowflake公布的营业利润率为负92%。亏损听起来从来都不是好事，但这比截至2020年1月的年度负135%或2019年的负192%更接近盈利。如果该公司真的想盈利，它可以限制销售和营销支出。</blockquote></p><p>It may not be a typical Buffett stock, but Snowflake definitely fits the mold of Wood's investments. The ARK founder has become synonymous with innovation, building a portfolio around futuristic themes such as genomics, space exploration, mobility-as-a-service, and the next-generation internet. It's the last theme, encompassing artificial intelligence and cloud computing, where Snowflake fits. The company's pay-as-you-consume, real-time access to data and analytical tools is a giant leap forward compared to the slow, bogged-down daily or weekly updates companies have long come to accept with managing their internal data warehouses.</p><p><blockquote>它可能不是典型的巴菲特股票，但雪花绝对符合伍德的投资模式。方舟创始人已成为创新的代名词，围绕基因组学、太空探索、移动即服务和下一代互联网等未来主题构建产品组合。这是最后一个主题，包括人工智能和云计算，雪花适合。与公司长期以来在管理内部数据仓库时接受的缓慢、停滞不前的每日或每周更新相比，该公司按消费付费、实时访问数据和分析工具是一个巨大的飞跃。</blockquote></p><p>Another stock in ARK's portfolio touches both the data-related and genomic revolution strategy. Based on his other holdings, it's actually surprising Buffett doesn't own it too.</p><p><blockquote>ARK投资组合中的另一只股票涉及数据相关和基因组革命战略。根据他的其他持股，巴菲特并不拥有它实际上令人惊讶。</blockquote></p><p><b>The surprising stock they don't both own</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人惊讶的是他们并不都拥有的股票</b></blockquote></p><p>The Oracle of Omaha has been buying up the stocks of pharmaceutical companies in the past year. In the third quarter of 2020 he added shares of<b>Pfizer</b>(NYSE:PFE),<b>AbbVie</b>(NYSE:ABBV),<b>Merck</b>(NYSE:MRK), and<b>BristolMyersSquibb</b>(NYSE:BMY). Every member of that group gives investors between 3% and 5% in dividends annually. Other than Bristol Myers, they all hover around a $200 billion market cap as well, and Bristol Myers is nearly as large at $136 billion. Similarly,<b>Novartis</b>(NYSE:NVS)is a $211 billion company yielding 3.8%. Perhaps the reason Buffett hasn't bought this big pharma stock is that it is a Swiss company. It turns out, Buffett favors American brands in food, cola, and apparently drugmakers.</p><p><blockquote>这位奥马哈先知在过去的一年里一直在买入制药公司的股票。2020年第三季度，他增持了<b>辉瑞</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：PFE），<b>艾伯维</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：ABBV），<b>默克</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：MRK），以及<b>百时美施贵宝</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BMY）。该集团的每个成员每年向投资者支付3%至5%的股息。除了百时美施贵宝之外，它们的市值也都徘徊在2000亿美元左右，百时美施贵宝的市值也几乎同样大，为1360亿美元。同样，<b>诺华</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NVS）是一家市值2110亿美元的公司，收益率为3.8%。也许巴菲特没有购买这家大型制药公司股票的原因是它是一家瑞士公司。事实证明，巴菲特青睐食品、可乐领域的美国品牌，显然还有制药商。</blockquote></p><p>Novartis did catch the eye of Wood, thanks to its work toward developing a leading digital and data science platform for drug discovery. Although it isn't a pure play on any of ARK's strategies, Wood considers it a deep value pick, to be held through a bull market and then sold in times of volatility to add to higher-conviction growth names that get beaten down.</p><p><blockquote>诺华确实引起了伍德的注意，这要归功于其致力于开发领先的药物发现数字和数据科学平台。尽管这并不是ARK任何策略的纯粹体现，但伍德认为这是一个深度价值选择，可以在牛市期间持有，然后在波动时期出售，以增加受到打击的信念较高的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>Portfolio juxtaposition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>组合并置</b></blockquote></p><p>It may be counterintuitive for an investor who prides himself on unemotional investing to buy into one of the hottest IPOs of last year, but once Snowflake started trading, the investment doubled almost immediately. Similarly, few would think someone famous for a $4,000 price target on<b>Tesla</b>and presentations that literally map out the future of entire industries would own a nearly 4% dividend paying pharmaceutical company with no growth. However, there is a great lesson in these examples.</p><p><blockquote>对于一个以不带感情色彩的投资为荣的投资者来说，买入去年最热门的IPO之一可能是违反直觉的，但一旦Snowflake开始交易，投资几乎立即翻了一番。同样，很少有人会认为有人以4,000美元的目标价而闻名<b>特斯拉</b>真正描绘整个行业未来的演示文稿将拥有一家支付近4%股息但没有增长的制药公司。然而，这些例子中有一个很好的教训。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Don't settle for the labels Wall Street places on companies or investors. Value and growth are just words. Investors may have tendencies that define them in the public eye, but that oversimplification may obscure the characteristics that draw their interest in an investment. Although Buffett likely didn't buy shares of Snowflake, it may have been the customer loyalty, leadership team, and consistent march toward profitability that made Combs or Weschler comfortable buying Snowflake shares. Wood may have a lot of fast-growing companies that don't make a profit, but it's the innovation that compels her to invest, not just growth rate. In the case of Novartis, innovation came in the form of a mega-cap pharmaceutical company.</p><p><blockquote>不要满足于华尔街给公司或投资者贴上的标签。价值和增长只是口头上的。投资者可能有在公众眼中定义他们的倾向，但这种过于简单化可能会掩盖吸引他们对投资感兴趣的特征。尽管巴菲特可能没有购买Snowflake的股票，但可能是客户忠诚度、领导团队以及持续向盈利能力迈进，让库姆斯或韦施勒放心购买Snowflake股票。伍德可能有很多快速增长的公司没有盈利，但迫使她投资的是创新，而不仅仅是增长率。就诺华而言，创新是以大型制药公司的形式出现的。</blockquote></p><p>Instead of focusing on the labels Wall Street slaps on a company or following Warren Buffett or Cathie Wood into the stock, try to identify the characteristics of the business that they find compelling. Try approaching the company as if you were going to inherit it, learning how dedicated customers are, where money gets spent to attract new ones, or what advantages it has over competitors. These answers will lead to a more informed investment decision and better outcomes over time.</p><p><blockquote>不要关注华尔街给一家公司贴上的标签，也不要追随沃伦·巴菲特或凯西·伍德买入该股票，而是尝试找出他们认为引人注目的业务特征。尝试接近该公司，就像你要继承它一样，了解客户有多敬业，钱花在哪里吸引新客户，或者它相对于竞争对手有什么优势。随着时间的推移，这些答案将导致更明智的投资决策和更好的结果。</blockquote></p><p>It turns out, both Snowflake and Novartis are compelling to different types of investors for a variety of reasons. Exploring those reasons can teach us a lot more about investing than focusing solely on who owns them. The more we know about a company, the easier it is to figure out whether the nextsell-off is something to fear or a great opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，出于各种原因，雪花和诺华都吸引了不同类型的投资者。探索这些原因可以教会我们更多关于投资的知识，而不是仅仅关注谁拥有它们。我们对一家公司了解得越多，就越容易弄清楚下一次抛售是令人恐惧的事情还是一个绝佳的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Stock Warren Buffett and Cathie Wood Have in Common and 1 They Should<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特和凯西·伍德共有1只股票，他们应该有1只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Stock Warren Buffett and Cathie Wood Have in Common and 1 They Should<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特和凯西·伍德共有1只股票，他们应该有1只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 21:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It might be a surprise to find out that two investors with virtually opposite approaches -- one who invests in large, cheap, iconic companies and the other who rose to fame on the heels of her outlandishly bullish (and accurate) predictions about \"overvalued\" stocks -- would have the same company in their portfolios. Perhaps the bigger surprise is the stock you might expect them to both own that they don't. Let's take a look at the two companies in question and what these successful investors must see.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会惊讶地发现，两个方法几乎相反的投资者——一个投资于大型、廉价、标志性的公司，另一个因她对“高估”股票的异常乐观（且准确）预测而声名鹊起——他们的投资组合中会有同一家公司。也许更大的惊喜是你可能期望他们都拥有的股票，但他们并没有。让我们来看看有问题的两家公司以及这些成功的投资者必须看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p><b>The surprising stock they both own</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他们都拥有的令人惊讶的股票</b></blockquote></p><p>First, it's doubtful that Warren Buffett actually bought<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW), the cloud data warehouse-as-a-service company. In recent years, lieutenants Todd Combs and Ted Weschler have been making more of the investment decisions, and the $750 million in stock<b>BerkshireHathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)purchased before theinitial public offering (IPO)certainly doesn't match the investment style of the legendary nonagenarian. In fact, Buffett hasn't bought an IPO since<b>Ford</b>&nbsp;in 1956. The company does fit the style of Cathie Wood at ARK Invest, a global asset management company focused on disruptive innovation. That said, Snowflake is putting up numbers that would get any investor's attention.</p><p><blockquote>首先，沃伦·巴菲特是否真的购买了值得怀疑<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），云数据仓库即服务公司。近年来，托德·库姆斯中尉和特德·韦施勒中尉一直在做出更多的投资决策，7.5亿美元的股票<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.B）在首次公开募股（IPO）之前购买的当然不符合这位传奇九十多岁老人的投资风格。事实上，巴菲特此后就没有购买过IPO<b>福特</b>1956年。该公司确实符合ARK Invest的Cathie Wood的风格，ARK Invest是一家专注于颠覆性创新的全球资产管理公司。也就是说，Snowflake提供的数据会引起任何投资者的注意。</blockquote></p><p>The company recently reported its full fiscal year earnings, and the growth was jaw-dropping. Fourth-quarter revenue of $178 million was up 116% year over year. Topping that, remaining performance obligations, what customers have signed on to buy, was up 213% over the same point last year. The company has 77 customers that spend more than $1 million per year. That number is up from 65 just three months earlier. Management is projecting between 92% and 96% revenue growth for the current year. Snowflake posted an operating margin of negative 92%. Losing money never sounds good, but that is closer to profitability than the negative 135% for the year ending January 2020 or the negative 192% in 2019. If the company really wanted to turn a profit it could just curb its spending on sales and marketing.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近公布了完整财年的收益，增长令人瞠目结舌。第四季度营收为1.78亿美元，同比增长116%。最重要的是，剩余履约义务（即客户已签署购买的商品）比去年同期增长了213%。该公司有77名每年消费超过100万美元的客户。这个数字比三个月前的65个有所上升。管理层预计今年收入增长92%至96%。Snowflake公布的营业利润率为负92%。亏损听起来从来都不是好事，但这比截至2020年1月的年度负135%或2019年的负192%更接近盈利。如果该公司真的想盈利，它可以限制销售和营销支出。</blockquote></p><p>It may not be a typical Buffett stock, but Snowflake definitely fits the mold of Wood's investments. The ARK founder has become synonymous with innovation, building a portfolio around futuristic themes such as genomics, space exploration, mobility-as-a-service, and the next-generation internet. It's the last theme, encompassing artificial intelligence and cloud computing, where Snowflake fits. The company's pay-as-you-consume, real-time access to data and analytical tools is a giant leap forward compared to the slow, bogged-down daily or weekly updates companies have long come to accept with managing their internal data warehouses.</p><p><blockquote>它可能不是典型的巴菲特股票，但雪花绝对符合伍德的投资模式。方舟创始人已成为创新的代名词，围绕基因组学、太空探索、移动即服务和下一代互联网等未来主题构建产品组合。这是最后一个主题，包括人工智能和云计算，雪花适合。与公司长期以来在管理内部数据仓库时接受的缓慢、停滞不前的每日或每周更新相比，该公司按消费付费、实时访问数据和分析工具是一个巨大的飞跃。</blockquote></p><p>Another stock in ARK's portfolio touches both the data-related and genomic revolution strategy. Based on his other holdings, it's actually surprising Buffett doesn't own it too.</p><p><blockquote>ARK投资组合中的另一只股票涉及数据相关和基因组革命战略。根据他的其他持股，巴菲特并不拥有它实际上令人惊讶。</blockquote></p><p><b>The surprising stock they don't both own</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人惊讶的是他们并不都拥有的股票</b></blockquote></p><p>The Oracle of Omaha has been buying up the stocks of pharmaceutical companies in the past year. In the third quarter of 2020 he added shares of<b>Pfizer</b>(NYSE:PFE),<b>AbbVie</b>(NYSE:ABBV),<b>Merck</b>(NYSE:MRK), and<b>BristolMyersSquibb</b>(NYSE:BMY). Every member of that group gives investors between 3% and 5% in dividends annually. Other than Bristol Myers, they all hover around a $200 billion market cap as well, and Bristol Myers is nearly as large at $136 billion. Similarly,<b>Novartis</b>(NYSE:NVS)is a $211 billion company yielding 3.8%. Perhaps the reason Buffett hasn't bought this big pharma stock is that it is a Swiss company. It turns out, Buffett favors American brands in food, cola, and apparently drugmakers.</p><p><blockquote>这位奥马哈先知在过去的一年里一直在买入制药公司的股票。2020年第三季度，他增持了<b>辉瑞</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：PFE），<b>艾伯维</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：ABBV），<b>默克</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：MRK），以及<b>百时美施贵宝</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BMY）。该集团的每个成员每年向投资者支付3%至5%的股息。除了百时美施贵宝之外，它们的市值也都徘徊在2000亿美元左右，百时美施贵宝的市值也几乎同样大，为1360亿美元。同样，<b>诺华</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NVS）是一家市值2110亿美元的公司，收益率为3.8%。也许巴菲特没有购买这家大型制药公司股票的原因是它是一家瑞士公司。事实证明，巴菲特青睐食品、可乐领域的美国品牌，显然还有制药商。</blockquote></p><p>Novartis did catch the eye of Wood, thanks to its work toward developing a leading digital and data science platform for drug discovery. Although it isn't a pure play on any of ARK's strategies, Wood considers it a deep value pick, to be held through a bull market and then sold in times of volatility to add to higher-conviction growth names that get beaten down.</p><p><blockquote>诺华确实引起了伍德的注意，这要归功于其致力于开发领先的药物发现数字和数据科学平台。尽管这并不是ARK任何策略的纯粹体现，但伍德认为这是一个深度价值选择，可以在牛市期间持有，然后在波动时期出售，以增加受到打击的信念较高的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>Portfolio juxtaposition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>组合并置</b></blockquote></p><p>It may be counterintuitive for an investor who prides himself on unemotional investing to buy into one of the hottest IPOs of last year, but once Snowflake started trading, the investment doubled almost immediately. Similarly, few would think someone famous for a $4,000 price target on<b>Tesla</b>and presentations that literally map out the future of entire industries would own a nearly 4% dividend paying pharmaceutical company with no growth. However, there is a great lesson in these examples.</p><p><blockquote>对于一个以不带感情色彩的投资为荣的投资者来说，买入去年最热门的IPO之一可能是违反直觉的，但一旦Snowflake开始交易，投资几乎立即翻了一番。同样，很少有人会认为有人以4,000美元的目标价而闻名<b>特斯拉</b>真正描绘整个行业未来的演示文稿将拥有一家支付近4%股息但没有增长的制药公司。然而，这些例子中有一个很好的教训。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Don't settle for the labels Wall Street places on companies or investors. Value and growth are just words. Investors may have tendencies that define them in the public eye, but that oversimplification may obscure the characteristics that draw their interest in an investment. Although Buffett likely didn't buy shares of Snowflake, it may have been the customer loyalty, leadership team, and consistent march toward profitability that made Combs or Weschler comfortable buying Snowflake shares. Wood may have a lot of fast-growing companies that don't make a profit, but it's the innovation that compels her to invest, not just growth rate. In the case of Novartis, innovation came in the form of a mega-cap pharmaceutical company.</p><p><blockquote>不要满足于华尔街给公司或投资者贴上的标签。价值和增长只是口头上的。投资者可能有在公众眼中定义他们的倾向，但这种过于简单化可能会掩盖吸引他们对投资感兴趣的特征。尽管巴菲特可能没有购买Snowflake的股票，但可能是客户忠诚度、领导团队以及持续向盈利能力迈进，让库姆斯或韦施勒放心购买Snowflake股票。伍德可能有很多快速增长的公司没有盈利，但迫使她投资的是创新，而不仅仅是增长率。就诺华而言，创新是以大型制药公司的形式出现的。</blockquote></p><p>Instead of focusing on the labels Wall Street slaps on a company or following Warren Buffett or Cathie Wood into the stock, try to identify the characteristics of the business that they find compelling. Try approaching the company as if you were going to inherit it, learning how dedicated customers are, where money gets spent to attract new ones, or what advantages it has over competitors. These answers will lead to a more informed investment decision and better outcomes over time.</p><p><blockquote>不要关注华尔街给一家公司贴上的标签，也不要追随沃伦·巴菲特或凯西·伍德买入该股票，而是尝试找出他们认为引人注目的业务特征。尝试接近该公司，就像你要继承它一样，了解客户有多敬业，钱花在哪里吸引新客户，或者它相对于竞争对手有什么优势。随着时间的推移，这些答案将导致更明智的投资决策和更好的结果。</blockquote></p><p>It turns out, both Snowflake and Novartis are compelling to different types of investors for a variety of reasons. Exploring those reasons can teach us a lot more about investing than focusing solely on who owns them. The more we know about a company, the easier it is to figure out whether the nextsell-off is something to fear or a great opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，出于各种原因，雪花和诺华都吸引了不同类型的投资者。探索这些原因可以教会我们更多关于投资的知识，而不是仅仅关注谁拥有它们。我们对一家公司了解得越多，就越容易弄清楚下一次抛售是令人恐惧的事情还是一个绝佳的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/19/1-stock-warren-buffett-and-cathie-wood-have-in-com/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/19/1-stock-warren-buffett-and-cathie-wood-have-in-com/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190757715","content_text":"It might be a surprise to find out that two investors with virtually opposite approaches -- one who invests in large, cheap, iconic companies and the other who rose to fame on the heels of her outlandishly bullish (and accurate) predictions about \"overvalued\" stocks -- would have the same company in their portfolios. Perhaps the bigger surprise is the stock you might expect them to both own that they don't. Let's take a look at the two companies in question and what these successful investors must see.The surprising stock they both ownFirst, it's doubtful that Warren Buffett actually boughtSnowflake(NYSE:SNOW), the cloud data warehouse-as-a-service company. In recent years, lieutenants Todd Combs and Ted Weschler have been making more of the investment decisions, and the $750 million in stockBerkshireHathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)purchased before theinitial public offering (IPO)certainly doesn't match the investment style of the legendary nonagenarian. In fact, Buffett hasn't bought an IPO sinceFord in 1956. The company does fit the style of Cathie Wood at ARK Invest, a global asset management company focused on disruptive innovation. That said, Snowflake is putting up numbers that would get any investor's attention.The company recently reported its full fiscal year earnings, and the growth was jaw-dropping. Fourth-quarter revenue of $178 million was up 116% year over year. Topping that, remaining performance obligations, what customers have signed on to buy, was up 213% over the same point last year. The company has 77 customers that spend more than $1 million per year. That number is up from 65 just three months earlier. Management is projecting between 92% and 96% revenue growth for the current year. Snowflake posted an operating margin of negative 92%. Losing money never sounds good, but that is closer to profitability than the negative 135% for the year ending January 2020 or the negative 192% in 2019. If the company really wanted to turn a profit it could just curb its spending on sales and marketing.It may not be a typical Buffett stock, but Snowflake definitely fits the mold of Wood's investments. The ARK founder has become synonymous with innovation, building a portfolio around futuristic themes such as genomics, space exploration, mobility-as-a-service, and the next-generation internet. It's the last theme, encompassing artificial intelligence and cloud computing, where Snowflake fits. The company's pay-as-you-consume, real-time access to data and analytical tools is a giant leap forward compared to the slow, bogged-down daily or weekly updates companies have long come to accept with managing their internal data warehouses.Another stock in ARK's portfolio touches both the data-related and genomic revolution strategy. Based on his other holdings, it's actually surprising Buffett doesn't own it too.The surprising stock they don't both ownThe Oracle of Omaha has been buying up the stocks of pharmaceutical companies in the past year. In the third quarter of 2020 he added shares ofPfizer(NYSE:PFE),AbbVie(NYSE:ABBV),Merck(NYSE:MRK), andBristolMyersSquibb(NYSE:BMY). Every member of that group gives investors between 3% and 5% in dividends annually. Other than Bristol Myers, they all hover around a $200 billion market cap as well, and Bristol Myers is nearly as large at $136 billion. Similarly,Novartis(NYSE:NVS)is a $211 billion company yielding 3.8%. Perhaps the reason Buffett hasn't bought this big pharma stock is that it is a Swiss company. It turns out, Buffett favors American brands in food, cola, and apparently drugmakers.Novartis did catch the eye of Wood, thanks to its work toward developing a leading digital and data science platform for drug discovery. Although it isn't a pure play on any of ARK's strategies, Wood considers it a deep value pick, to be held through a bull market and then sold in times of volatility to add to higher-conviction growth names that get beaten down.Portfolio juxtapositionIt may be counterintuitive for an investor who prides himself on unemotional investing to buy into one of the hottest IPOs of last year, but once Snowflake started trading, the investment doubled almost immediately. Similarly, few would think someone famous for a $4,000 price target onTeslaand presentations that literally map out the future of entire industries would own a nearly 4% dividend paying pharmaceutical company with no growth. However, there is a great lesson in these examples.Don't settle for the labels Wall Street places on companies or investors. Value and growth are just words. Investors may have tendencies that define them in the public eye, but that oversimplification may obscure the characteristics that draw their interest in an investment. Although Buffett likely didn't buy shares of Snowflake, it may have been the customer loyalty, leadership team, and consistent march toward profitability that made Combs or Weschler comfortable buying Snowflake shares. Wood may have a lot of fast-growing companies that don't make a profit, but it's the innovation that compels her to invest, not just growth rate. In the case of Novartis, innovation came in the form of a mega-cap pharmaceutical company.Instead of focusing on the labels Wall Street slaps on a company or following Warren Buffett or Cathie Wood into the stock, try to identify the characteristics of the business that they find compelling. Try approaching the company as if you were going to inherit it, learning how dedicated customers are, where money gets spent to attract new ones, or what advantages it has over competitors. These answers will lead to a more informed investment decision and better outcomes over time.It turns out, both Snowflake and Novartis are compelling to different types of investors for a variety of reasons. Exploring those reasons can teach us a lot more about investing than focusing solely on who owns them. The more we know about a company, the easier it is to figure out whether the nextsell-off is something to fear or a great opportunity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326601968,"gmtCreate":1615622886054,"gmtModify":1703491720753,"author":{"id":"3574772553430673","authorId":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574772553430673","authorIdStr":"3574772553430673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish ahead Tesla bearish?","listText":"Bullish ahead Tesla bearish?","text":"Bullish ahead Tesla bearish?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326601968","repostId":"2118912950","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}