WadeW的个人主页 - 老虎社区

WadeW

WadeW

求被带飞

IP属地：未知

24关注

2粉丝

4主题

0勋章

2021-02-08

$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$都想下车了

2021-03-04

$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$will be up?

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2021-03-03

Excellent$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-19

What about $Gran Tierra(GTE)$

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2021-01-28

$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$来了来了见证历史的一刻[龇牙] [龇牙]

2021-02-18

Never consider bout $Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$[开心] [开心] [开心]

22 additional dividend stocks that Warren Buffett might consider buying<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可能考虑购买的22只额外股息股票</blockquote>

2021-02-17

$Gran Tierra(GTE)$yea boi

Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>

2021-02-15

$Gran Tierra(GTE)$its time

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2021-02-11

$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$再来吗

2021-02-18

Lol comment for the sake of coin

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去老虎APP查看更多动态

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<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>","listText":"Join <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>","text":"Join $Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320964593","repostId":"1116031861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116031861","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614955424,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116031861?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-05 22:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Senseonics plunged more than 9%<blockquote>Senseonics暴跌超9%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116031861","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 5) Senseonics plunged more than 9%. Senseonics downgraded to underperform from market perform","content":"<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Senseonics plunged more than 9%.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Senseonics暴跌超9%。</blockquote></p><p>Senseonics downgraded to underperform from market perform at Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)将Senseonics评级从市场表现下调至表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p>Senseonics Holdings, Inc. reported quarterly losses of $(0.41) per share. 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This is a 127.78 percent decrease over losses of $(0.18) per share from the same period last year.  The company reported quarterly sales of $3.90 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $3.05 million by 27.87 percent.  This is a 56.44 percent decrease over sales of $8.95 million the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>Senseonics Holdings，Inc.报告季度亏损为每股0.41美元。与去年同期每股亏损(0.18)美元相比，减少了127.78%。该公司报告季度销售额为390万美元，比分析师普遍预期的305万美元高出27.87%。与去年同期895万美元的销售额相比，下降了56.44%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8692adfc74e9219bd4e30a757ad3a1dd\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SENS":"Senseonics Holdings,Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116031861","content_text":"(March 5) Senseonics plunged more than 9%. Senseonics downgraded to underperform from market perform at Raymond James.Senseonics Holdings, Inc. reported quarterly losses of $(0.41) per share. This is a 127.78 percent decrease over losses of $(0.18) per share from the same period last year.  The company reported quarterly sales of $3.90 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $3.05 million by 27.87 percent.  This is a 56.44 percent decrease over sales of $8.95 million the same period last year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SENS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364687045,"gmtCreate":1614848279787,"gmtModify":1703481886196,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>will be up?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>will be up?","text":"$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$will be up?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364687045","repostId":"2116257515","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365470146,"gmtCreate":1614775677985,"gmtModify":1703480946423,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Excellent<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>","listText":"Excellent<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>","text":"Excellent$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365470146","repostId":"2116549743","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387965763,"gmtCreate":1613710973852,"gmtModify":1631890613306,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What about <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>","listText":"What about <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>","text":"What about $Gran Tierra(GTE)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387965763","repostId":"2112813609","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387965989,"gmtCreate":1613710947641,"gmtModify":1634552546789,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Come <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>","listText":"Come <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>","text":"Come $Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387965989","repostId":"1103921295","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384833473,"gmtCreate":1613636662292,"gmtModify":1634552851532,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol comment for the sake of coin","listText":"Lol comment for the sake of coin","text":"Lol comment for the sake of coin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384833473","repostId":"1112683598","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384833294,"gmtCreate":1613636636218,"gmtModify":1634552851654,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Never consider bout <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"Never consider bout <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"Never consider bout $Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384833294","repostId":"1124565484","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124565484","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613631190,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124565484?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-18 14:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"22 additional dividend stocks that Warren Buffett might consider buying<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可能考虑购买的22只额外股息股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124565484","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"His Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate recently started buying shares of Verizon and Chevron — both hav","content":"<p><b>His Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate recently started buying shares of Verizon and Chevron — both have attractive dividend yields well-supported by expected cash flow.</b>A vote of confidence by Warren Buffett in a particular stock doesn’t mean you should jump on the bandwagon, but the Berkshire Hathaway CEO’s long-term track record speaks for itself. The man knows how to spot a bargain.</p><p><blockquote><b>他的伯克希尔哈撒韦集团最近开始购买威瑞森和雪佛龙的股票——这两家公司的股息收益率都很有吸引力，并得到了预期现金流的良好支持。</b>沃伦·巴菲特对某只股票投下信任票并不意味着你应该追随这一潮流，但这位伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官的长期业绩记录不言而喻。这个人知道如何发现便宜货。</blockquote></p><p>Below is a screen of stocks inspired by Buffett’s two new picks that feature attractive dividend yields that are expected to be well-covered by free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>下面是受巴菲特两只新精选股票启发的股票屏幕，这些股票具有有吸引力的股息收益率，预计自由现金流将充分覆盖。</blockquote></p><p>Word of Buffett’s new investment positions can send shares higher as other investors’ ears perk up. This happened after Berkshire Hathaway Inc.BRKdisclosed late Feb. 16 that it had purchased shares of Verizon Communications Inc.VZ.and Chevron Corp.CVX— two stocks with attractive dividend yields, one of which is cheaply priced when compared to the weighted valuation of the S&amp;P 500 IndexSPX.</p><p><blockquote>随着其他投资者的耳朵竖起来，巴菲特新投资头寸的消息可能会推高股价。此前，Berkshire Hathaway Inc.BRK于2月16日晚披露已购买Verizon Communications Inc.VZ和Chevron Corp.CVX的股票，这两只股票具有有吸引力的股息收益率，其中一只与加权估值相比定价较低标普500指数SPX。</blockquote></p><p>Shares of Verizon were up 3% in early trading Feb. 17, while Chevron was up 3.5%. With dividends reinvested, Verizon had declined 7% for 2021 through Feb. 16, following a flat performance in 2020. Chevron was up 1.5% early Feb. 17 and had already risen 12% for 2021 following a 26% decline in 2020. Oil is on the upswing as investors look ahead to life after the pandemic. West Texas Intermediate crude oilCRUDE OILhad risen 68% from the close on Oct. 31 through Feb. 16, when it settled at $60.05 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>Verizon股价在2月17日早盘交易中上涨3%，雪佛龙股价上涨3.5%。随着股息再投资，Verizon继2020年业绩持平后，截至2月16日，2021年股价下跌了7%。雪佛龙2月17日早些时候上涨1.5%，继2020年下跌26%后，2021年已上涨12%。随着投资者展望大流行后的生活，油价正在上涨。西德克萨斯中质原油从10月31日收盘到2月16日收盘上涨了68%，最终收于每桶60.05美元。</blockquote></p><p>All of the following is based on closing prices Feb. 16 and consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>以下所有内容均基于2月16日的收盘价以及FactSet调查的分析师对未来12个月的一致预期。</blockquote></p><p>Verizon’s stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7, compared to a weighted aggregate forward P/E of 22.5 for the S&amp;P 500. The shares have a dividend yield of 4.64%.</p><p><blockquote>Verizon股票的预期市盈率为10.7，而标普500的加权总预期市盈率为22.5。该股的股息率为4.64%。</blockquote></p><p>One way to gauge a company’s ability to cover its dividend (and hopefully raise it) is to look at its free cash flow, which is its remaining cash flow after planned capital expenditures. This is money that can be used for any corporate purpose, including expansion, share repurchases or dividend increases. We can measure a company’s free cash flow yield by dividing trailing or estimated free cash flow by the current share price. Because of the disruptions to the U.S. economy in 2020, all the free cash flow yields that follow make use of consensus estimates for the next 12 reported months.</p><p><blockquote>衡量公司支付股息（并希望提高股息）能力的一种方法是查看其自由现金流，即计划资本支出后的剩余现金流。这笔钱可用于任何公司目的，包括扩张、股票回购或增加股息。我们可以通过将跟踪或估计的自由现金流除以当前股价来衡量公司的自由现金流收益率。由于2020年美国经济受到干扰，随后的所有自由现金流收益率均采用未来12个报告月的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p>Verizion’s forward free cash flow yield is 8.97%, showing “headroom” of 4.34% over the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>Verizion的远期自由现金流收益率为8.97%，比当前股息有4.34%的“净空”。</blockquote></p><p>Chevron’s stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24.8, which is higher than that of the S&amp;P 500. Then again, 2021 is expected to be a recovery year for oil and natural gas, and analysts’ earnings estimates may not have caught up with rising fuel commodity prices. Chevron’s dividend yield is 5.54% and its forward free cash flow yield is 7.99%, leaving “headroom” of 2.45%.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙股票的远期市盈率为24.8，高于标普500。话又说回来，预计2021年将是石油和天然气的复苏年，分析师的盈利预期可能没有赶上燃料大宗商品价格的上涨。雪佛龙的股息收益率为5.54%，远期自由现金流收益率为7.99%，还有2.45%的“净空”。</blockquote></p><p>None of this is to say that Buffett is overly fixated on stocks with high dividend yields. He isn’t. Among the publicly traded holdings the company disclosed Feb. 16, there are plenty of companies that pay no dividends, including Amazon.com Inc.AMZN,Biogen Inc.BIIB,Charter Communications Inc.CHTRand General Motors Co.GM,which suspended its quarterly dividend in April.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说巴菲特过度关注高股息收益率的股票。他不是。在该公司2月16日披露的公开交易持股中，有很多公司不支付股息，包括亚马逊公司（AMZN）、百健公司（Biogen Inc.BIIB）、Charter Communications Inc.CHTRand通用汽车公司（General Motors Co.GM），后者暂停了季度股息。四月。</blockquote></p><p><b>A Buffett dividend stock screen</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特股息股票屏幕</b></blockquote></p><p>Working from Buffett’s selections of Verizon and Chevron and excluding stocks Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t already hold, here are the 22 stocks among the S&amp;P 500 with dividend yields of at least 4.00%, for which free cash flow estimates for calendar 2021 are available, with headroom indicated. The list is sorted by dividend yield.</p><p><blockquote>根据巴菲特选择的Verizon和Chevron并排除Berkshire Hathaway尚未持有的股票，以下是标普500中股息收益率至少为4.00%的22只股票，可获得2021年的自由现金流估计，并有净空指示。该列表按股息收益率排序。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc941b397e252f4198fa8bb425fa2bbb\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Scroll the table to see all the data, including forward P/E ratios and total returns for 2021 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>滚动表格查看所有数据，包括2021年和2020年的远期市盈率和总回报。</blockquote></p><p>For real estate investment trusts, the industry standard for measuring dividend-paying ability is funds from operations, a non-GAAP figure that adds depreciation and amortization back to earnings and subtracts gains on the sale of property. So forward FFO estimates are used in the “estimated FCF yield” column on the table.</p><p><blockquote>对于房地产投资信托基金来说，衡量股息支付能力的行业标准是运营资金，这是一个非公认会计准则数字，将折旧和摊销加回收益中，并减去出售财产的收益。因此，表中的“估计FCF收益率”栏中使用了远期FFO估计值。</blockquote></p><p>The list excludes four stocks already held by Berkshire Hathaway — Verizon, Chevron and two more:</p><p><blockquote>该名单不包括伯克希尔哈撒韦公司已持有的四只股票——威瑞森、雪佛龙和另外两只股票：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><ul><li>AbbVie Inc.ABBVhas a dividend yield of 4.99%, with a forward free cash flow yield of 10.54% for headroom of 5.55%.</li><li>Kraft Heinz Co.KHChas a dividend yield of 4.52% and a forward free cash flow yield of 7.59% for headroom of 3.06%. The company cut its dividend by more than a third in February 2019.</li></ul>A high dividend yield might indicate investors are sour on the company’s business prospects or its ability to maintain the dividend over the long term, despite a high FCF yield. For example, the highest-yielding stock on the list is Lumen Technologies Inc.LUMN,which was CenturyLink before it was renamed in September. The dividend yield is 8.48%. CenturyLinkcut its quarterly dividend by 26% on the same day it authorized a $2 billion stock repurchase planin February 2013. The company’s quarterly dividend remained 54 cents a share until it wascut to the current 25 cents a sharein February 2019. For five years through Feb. 16, shares of Lumen/CenturyLink were down 34%, with dividends reinvested, while they were down 38% for 10 years.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>艾伯维公司ABBV的股息收益率为4.99%，远期自由现金流收益率为10.54%，净空为5.55%。</li><li>卡夫亨氏公司KHChas的股息收益率为4.52%，远期自由现金流收益率为7.59%，净空为3.06%。该公司于2019年2月将股息削减了三分之一以上。</li></ul>高股息收益率可能表明投资者对公司的业务前景或其长期维持股息的能力感到不满，尽管自由现金流收益率很高。例如，榜单上收益率最高的股票是Lumen Technologies Inc.LUMN，该公司在9月份更名之前是CenturyLink。股息率为8.48%。CenturyLink在2013年2月授权20亿美元股票回购计划的同一天，将季度股息削减了26%。该公司的季度股息仍为每股54美分，直到2019年2月削减至目前的每股25美分。截至2月16日的五年里，Lumen/CenturyLink的股价在股息再投资后下跌了34%，而10年来股价下跌了38%。</blockquote></p><p>Other companies on the list that have cut dividends over the past 10 years include Williams Cos.WMB,Kinder Morgan Inc.KMI,Vornado Realty TrustVNOand Simon Property Group Inc.SPG,which reduced its payout by 38% in June.</p><p><blockquote>名单上其他在过去10年中削减股息的公司包括Williams Cos.WMB、Kinder Morgan Inc.KMI、Vornado Realty TrustVNO和Simon Property Group Inc.SPG，后者在6月份将派息减少了38%。</blockquote></p><p>All of this emphasizes the importance of doing your own research to form your own opinion about a company’s long-term prospects if you see any stocks of interest here.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都强调了如果您在这里看到任何感兴趣的股票，请进行自己的研究以形成自己对公司长期前景的看法的重要性。</blockquote></p><p>Aside from CenturyLink, the stock listed above with the lowest forward P/E valuation is AT&amp;T Inc.T,with a dividend yield of 7.18% and P/E of 9.2, followed by Pfizer Inc.PFE,with a yield of 4.50% and forward P/E of 10.3.</p><p><blockquote>除了CenturyLink之外，上面列出的远期市盈率估值最低的股票是AT&amp;T Inc.T，股息收益率为7.18%，市盈率为9.2，其次是辉瑞Inc.PFE，收益率为4.50%，远期市盈率为10.3。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>22 additional dividend stocks that Warren Buffett might consider buying<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可能考虑购买的22只额外股息股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n22 additional dividend stocks that Warren Buffett might consider buying<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可能考虑购买的22只额外股息股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-18 14:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>His Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate recently started buying shares of Verizon and Chevron — both have attractive dividend yields well-supported by expected cash flow.</b>A vote of confidence by Warren Buffett in a particular stock doesn’t mean you should jump on the bandwagon, but the Berkshire Hathaway CEO’s long-term track record speaks for itself. The man knows how to spot a bargain.</p><p><blockquote><b>他的伯克希尔哈撒韦集团最近开始购买威瑞森和雪佛龙的股票——这两家公司的股息收益率都很有吸引力，并得到了预期现金流的良好支持。</b>沃伦·巴菲特对某只股票投下信任票并不意味着你应该追随这一潮流，但这位伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官的长期业绩记录不言而喻。这个人知道如何发现便宜货。</blockquote></p><p>Below is a screen of stocks inspired by Buffett’s two new picks that feature attractive dividend yields that are expected to be well-covered by free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>下面是受巴菲特两只新精选股票启发的股票屏幕，这些股票具有有吸引力的股息收益率，预计自由现金流将充分覆盖。</blockquote></p><p>Word of Buffett’s new investment positions can send shares higher as other investors’ ears perk up. This happened after Berkshire Hathaway Inc.BRKdisclosed late Feb. 16 that it had purchased shares of Verizon Communications Inc.VZ.and Chevron Corp.CVX— two stocks with attractive dividend yields, one of which is cheaply priced when compared to the weighted valuation of the S&amp;P 500 IndexSPX.</p><p><blockquote>随着其他投资者的耳朵竖起来，巴菲特新投资头寸的消息可能会推高股价。此前，Berkshire Hathaway Inc.BRK于2月16日晚披露已购买Verizon Communications Inc.VZ和Chevron Corp.CVX的股票，这两只股票具有有吸引力的股息收益率，其中一只与加权估值相比定价较低标普500指数SPX。</blockquote></p><p>Shares of Verizon were up 3% in early trading Feb. 17, while Chevron was up 3.5%. With dividends reinvested, Verizon had declined 7% for 2021 through Feb. 16, following a flat performance in 2020. Chevron was up 1.5% early Feb. 17 and had already risen 12% for 2021 following a 26% decline in 2020. Oil is on the upswing as investors look ahead to life after the pandemic. West Texas Intermediate crude oilCRUDE OILhad risen 68% from the close on Oct. 31 through Feb. 16, when it settled at $60.05 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>Verizon股价在2月17日早盘交易中上涨3%，雪佛龙股价上涨3.5%。随着股息再投资，Verizon继2020年业绩持平后，截至2月16日，2021年股价下跌了7%。雪佛龙2月17日早些时候上涨1.5%，继2020年下跌26%后，2021年已上涨12%。随着投资者展望大流行后的生活，油价正在上涨。西德克萨斯中质原油从10月31日收盘到2月16日收盘上涨了68%，最终收于每桶60.05美元。</blockquote></p><p>All of the following is based on closing prices Feb. 16 and consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>以下所有内容均基于2月16日的收盘价以及FactSet调查的分析师对未来12个月的一致预期。</blockquote></p><p>Verizon’s stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7, compared to a weighted aggregate forward P/E of 22.5 for the S&amp;P 500. The shares have a dividend yield of 4.64%.</p><p><blockquote>Verizon股票的预期市盈率为10.7，而标普500的加权总预期市盈率为22.5。该股的股息率为4.64%。</blockquote></p><p>One way to gauge a company’s ability to cover its dividend (and hopefully raise it) is to look at its free cash flow, which is its remaining cash flow after planned capital expenditures. This is money that can be used for any corporate purpose, including expansion, share repurchases or dividend increases. We can measure a company’s free cash flow yield by dividing trailing or estimated free cash flow by the current share price. Because of the disruptions to the U.S. economy in 2020, all the free cash flow yields that follow make use of consensus estimates for the next 12 reported months.</p><p><blockquote>衡量公司支付股息（并希望提高股息）能力的一种方法是查看其自由现金流，即计划资本支出后的剩余现金流。这笔钱可用于任何公司目的，包括扩张、股票回购或增加股息。我们可以通过将跟踪或估计的自由现金流除以当前股价来衡量公司的自由现金流收益率。由于2020年美国经济受到干扰，随后的所有自由现金流收益率均采用未来12个报告月的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p>Verizion’s forward free cash flow yield is 8.97%, showing “headroom” of 4.34% over the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>Verizion的远期自由现金流收益率为8.97%，比当前股息有4.34%的“净空”。</blockquote></p><p>Chevron’s stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24.8, which is higher than that of the S&amp;P 500. Then again, 2021 is expected to be a recovery year for oil and natural gas, and analysts’ earnings estimates may not have caught up with rising fuel commodity prices. Chevron’s dividend yield is 5.54% and its forward free cash flow yield is 7.99%, leaving “headroom” of 2.45%.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙股票的远期市盈率为24.8，高于标普500。话又说回来，预计2021年将是石油和天然气的复苏年，分析师的盈利预期可能没有赶上燃料大宗商品价格的上涨。雪佛龙的股息收益率为5.54%，远期自由现金流收益率为7.99%，还有2.45%的“净空”。</blockquote></p><p>None of this is to say that Buffett is overly fixated on stocks with high dividend yields. He isn’t. Among the publicly traded holdings the company disclosed Feb. 16, there are plenty of companies that pay no dividends, including Amazon.com Inc.AMZN,Biogen Inc.BIIB,Charter Communications Inc.CHTRand General Motors Co.GM,which suspended its quarterly dividend in April.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说巴菲特过度关注高股息收益率的股票。他不是。在该公司2月16日披露的公开交易持股中，有很多公司不支付股息，包括亚马逊公司（AMZN）、百健公司（Biogen Inc.BIIB）、Charter Communications Inc.CHTRand通用汽车公司（General Motors Co.GM），后者暂停了季度股息。四月。</blockquote></p><p><b>A Buffett dividend stock screen</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特股息股票屏幕</b></blockquote></p><p>Working from Buffett’s selections of Verizon and Chevron and excluding stocks Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t already hold, here are the 22 stocks among the S&amp;P 500 with dividend yields of at least 4.00%, for which free cash flow estimates for calendar 2021 are available, with headroom indicated. The list is sorted by dividend yield.</p><p><blockquote>根据巴菲特选择的Verizon和Chevron并排除Berkshire Hathaway尚未持有的股票，以下是标普500中股息收益率至少为4.00%的22只股票，可获得2021年的自由现金流估计，并有净空指示。该列表按股息收益率排序。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc941b397e252f4198fa8bb425fa2bbb\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Scroll the table to see all the data, including forward P/E ratios and total returns for 2021 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>滚动表格查看所有数据，包括2021年和2020年的远期市盈率和总回报。</blockquote></p><p>For real estate investment trusts, the industry standard for measuring dividend-paying ability is funds from operations, a non-GAAP figure that adds depreciation and amortization back to earnings and subtracts gains on the sale of property. So forward FFO estimates are used in the “estimated FCF yield” column on the table.</p><p><blockquote>对于房地产投资信托基金来说，衡量股息支付能力的行业标准是运营资金，这是一个非公认会计准则数字，将折旧和摊销加回收益中，并减去出售财产的收益。因此，表中的“估计FCF收益率”栏中使用了远期FFO估计值。</blockquote></p><p>The list excludes four stocks already held by Berkshire Hathaway — Verizon, Chevron and two more:</p><p><blockquote>该名单不包括伯克希尔哈撒韦公司已持有的四只股票——威瑞森、雪佛龙和另外两只股票：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><ul><li>AbbVie Inc.ABBVhas a dividend yield of 4.99%, with a forward free cash flow yield of 10.54% for headroom of 5.55%.</li><li>Kraft Heinz Co.KHChas a dividend yield of 4.52% and a forward free cash flow yield of 7.59% for headroom of 3.06%. The company cut its dividend by more than a third in February 2019.</li></ul>A high dividend yield might indicate investors are sour on the company’s business prospects or its ability to maintain the dividend over the long term, despite a high FCF yield. For example, the highest-yielding stock on the list is Lumen Technologies Inc.LUMN,which was CenturyLink before it was renamed in September. The dividend yield is 8.48%. CenturyLinkcut its quarterly dividend by 26% on the same day it authorized a $2 billion stock repurchase planin February 2013. The company’s quarterly dividend remained 54 cents a share until it wascut to the current 25 cents a sharein February 2019. For five years through Feb. 16, shares of Lumen/CenturyLink were down 34%, with dividends reinvested, while they were down 38% for 10 years.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>艾伯维公司ABBV的股息收益率为4.99%，远期自由现金流收益率为10.54%，净空为5.55%。</li><li>卡夫亨氏公司KHChas的股息收益率为4.52%，远期自由现金流收益率为7.59%，净空为3.06%。该公司于2019年2月将股息削减了三分之一以上。</li></ul>高股息收益率可能表明投资者对公司的业务前景或其长期维持股息的能力感到不满，尽管自由现金流收益率很高。例如，榜单上收益率最高的股票是Lumen Technologies Inc.LUMN，该公司在9月份更名之前是CenturyLink。股息率为8.48%。CenturyLink在2013年2月授权20亿美元股票回购计划的同一天，将季度股息削减了26%。该公司的季度股息仍为每股54美分，直到2019年2月削减至目前的每股25美分。截至2月16日的五年里，Lumen/CenturyLink的股价在股息再投资后下跌了34%，而10年来股价下跌了38%。</blockquote></p><p>Other companies on the list that have cut dividends over the past 10 years include Williams Cos.WMB,Kinder Morgan Inc.KMI,Vornado Realty TrustVNOand Simon Property Group Inc.SPG,which reduced its payout by 38% in June.</p><p><blockquote>名单上其他在过去10年中削减股息的公司包括Williams Cos.WMB、Kinder Morgan Inc.KMI、Vornado Realty TrustVNO和Simon Property Group Inc.SPG，后者在6月份将派息减少了38%。</blockquote></p><p>All of this emphasizes the importance of doing your own research to form your own opinion about a company’s long-term prospects if you see any stocks of interest here.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都强调了如果您在这里看到任何感兴趣的股票，请进行自己的研究以形成自己对公司长期前景的看法的重要性。</blockquote></p><p>Aside from CenturyLink, the stock listed above with the lowest forward P/E valuation is AT&amp;T Inc.T,with a dividend yield of 7.18% and P/E of 9.2, followed by Pfizer Inc.PFE,with a yield of 4.50% and forward P/E of 10.3.</p><p><blockquote>除了CenturyLink之外，上面列出的远期市盈率估值最低的股票是AT&amp;T Inc.T，股息收益率为7.18%，市盈率为9.2，其次是辉瑞Inc.PFE，收益率为4.50%，远期市盈率为10.3。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/22-additional-dividend-stocks-that-warren-buffett-might-consider-buying-11613579442?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMCR":"AMCOR PLC","SLG":"SL Green Realty Corp","VNO":"沃那多房信","LUMN":"Lumen Technologies","BXP":"BXP Inc","IRM":"爱恩铁山","FRT":"FRT信托","IPG":"埃培智","REG":"Regency Centers Corp","WMB":"威廉姆斯","PSX":"Phillips 66","SPG":"西蒙地产","MPC":"马拉松原油","T":"At&T","OKE":"欧尼克（万欧卡）","LYB":"利安德巴塞尔","DOW":"陶氏化学","IP":"国际纸业","PFE":"辉瑞","O":"Realty Income Corp","KMI":"金德尔摩根"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/22-additional-dividend-stocks-that-warren-buffett-might-consider-buying-11613579442?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1124565484","content_text":"His Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate recently started buying shares of Verizon and Chevron — both have attractive dividend yields well-supported by expected cash flow.A vote of confidence by Warren Buffett in a particular stock doesn’t mean you should jump on the bandwagon, but the Berkshire Hathaway CEO’s long-term track record speaks for itself. The man knows how to spot a bargain.Below is a screen of stocks inspired by Buffett’s two new picks that feature attractive dividend yields that are expected to be well-covered by free cash flow.Word of Buffett’s new investment positions can send shares higher as other investors’ ears perk up. This happened after Berkshire Hathaway Inc.BRKdisclosed late Feb. 16 that it had purchased shares of Verizon Communications Inc.VZ.and Chevron Corp.CVX— two stocks with attractive dividend yields, one of which is cheaply priced when compared to the weighted valuation of the S&P 500 IndexSPX.Shares of Verizon were up 3% in early trading Feb. 17, while Chevron was up 3.5%. With dividends reinvested, Verizon had declined 7% for 2021 through Feb. 16, following a flat performance in 2020. Chevron was up 1.5% early Feb. 17 and had already risen 12% for 2021 following a 26% decline in 2020. Oil is on the upswing as investors look ahead to life after the pandemic. West Texas Intermediate crude oilCRUDE OILhad risen 68% from the close on Oct. 31 through Feb. 16, when it settled at $60.05 a barrel.All of the following is based on closing prices Feb. 16 and consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the next 12 months.Verizon’s stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7, compared to a weighted aggregate forward P/E of 22.5 for the S&P 500. The shares have a dividend yield of 4.64%.One way to gauge a company’s ability to cover its dividend (and hopefully raise it) is to look at its free cash flow, which is its remaining cash flow after planned capital expenditures. This is money that can be used for any corporate purpose, including expansion, share repurchases or dividend increases. We can measure a company’s free cash flow yield by dividing trailing or estimated free cash flow by the current share price. Because of the disruptions to the U.S. economy in 2020, all the free cash flow yields that follow make use of consensus estimates for the next 12 reported months.Verizion’s forward free cash flow yield is 8.97%, showing “headroom” of 4.34% over the current dividend.Chevron’s stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24.8, which is higher than that of the S&P 500. Then again, 2021 is expected to be a recovery year for oil and natural gas, and analysts’ earnings estimates may not have caught up with rising fuel commodity prices. Chevron’s dividend yield is 5.54% and its forward free cash flow yield is 7.99%, leaving “headroom” of 2.45%.None of this is to say that Buffett is overly fixated on stocks with high dividend yields. He isn’t. Among the publicly traded holdings the company disclosed Feb. 16, there are plenty of companies that pay no dividends, including Amazon.com Inc.AMZN,Biogen Inc.BIIB,Charter Communications Inc.CHTRand General Motors Co.GM,which suspended its quarterly dividend in April.A Buffett dividend stock screenWorking from Buffett’s selections of Verizon and Chevron and excluding stocks Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t already hold, here are the 22 stocks among the S&P 500 with dividend yields of at least 4.00%, for which free cash flow estimates for calendar 2021 are available, with headroom indicated. The list is sorted by dividend yield.Scroll the table to see all the data, including forward P/E ratios and total returns for 2021 and 2020.For real estate investment trusts, the industry standard for measuring dividend-paying ability is funds from operations, a non-GAAP figure that adds depreciation and amortization back to earnings and subtracts gains on the sale of property. So forward FFO estimates are used in the “estimated FCF yield” column on the table.The list excludes four stocks already held by Berkshire Hathaway — Verizon, Chevron and two more:AbbVie Inc.ABBVhas a dividend yield of 4.99%, with a forward free cash flow yield of 10.54% for headroom of 5.55%.Kraft Heinz Co.KHChas a dividend yield of 4.52% and a forward free cash flow yield of 7.59% for headroom of 3.06%. The company cut its dividend by more than a third in February 2019.A high dividend yield might indicate investors are sour on the company’s business prospects or its ability to maintain the dividend over the long term, despite a high FCF yield. For example, the highest-yielding stock on the list is Lumen Technologies Inc.LUMN,which was CenturyLink before it was renamed in September. The dividend yield is 8.48%. CenturyLinkcut its quarterly dividend by 26% on the same day it authorized a $2 billion stock repurchase planin February 2013. The company’s quarterly dividend remained 54 cents a share until it wascut to the current 25 cents a sharein February 2019. For five years through Feb. 16, shares of Lumen/CenturyLink were down 34%, with dividends reinvested, while they were down 38% for 10 years.Other companies on the list that have cut dividends over the past 10 years include Williams Cos.WMB,Kinder Morgan Inc.KMI,Vornado Realty TrustVNOand Simon Property Group Inc.SPG,which reduced its payout by 38% in June.All of this emphasizes the importance of doing your own research to form your own opinion about a company’s long-term prospects if you see any stocks of interest here.Aside from CenturyLink, the stock listed above with the lowest forward P/E valuation is AT&T Inc.T,with a dividend yield of 7.18% and P/E of 9.2, followed by Pfizer Inc.PFE,with a yield of 4.50% and forward P/E of 10.3.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IRM":0.9,"PSX":0.9,"K":0.9,"AMCR":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"WMB":0.9,"O":0.9,"IPG":0.9,"SLG":0.9,"BXP":0.9,"LYB":0.9,"T":0.9,"SPG":0.9,"FRT":0.9,"VNO":0.9,"REG":0.9,"MPC":0.9,"KMI":0.9,"LUMN":0.9,"IP":0.9,"DOW":0.9,"OKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385631689,"gmtCreate":1613540201841,"gmtModify":1631890613319,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>yea boi","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>yea boi","text":"$Gran Tierra(GTE)$yea boi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385631689","repostId":"1146053060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146053060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613540252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146053060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 13:37","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146053060","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an econ","content":"<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，<i>超级循环</i>对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了25%，而标普500（仅）上涨了9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元走软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Oilprice</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 13:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，<i>超级循环</i>对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了25%，而标普500（仅）上涨了9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元走软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html\">Oilprice</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146053060","content_text":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.\nThe commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.\nYet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the termsupercycleis too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.\nCommodity Rally\nAs early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs said that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.\nGoldman expected the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.\nOver the past three months, the S&P GSCI has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&P 500.\nOver the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.\nSome Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…\nAccording to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.\n“We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.\nThe latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.\nJPMorgan now sees several potential factors underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.\nThe International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).\nThis year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.\n“The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.\nThen, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.\nIn the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.\nThe combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.\nPost-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.\nBut Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?\nAlthough crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.\nWhat we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.\nThis bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the Financial Post in an interview last week.\nCommodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382726610,"gmtCreate":1613485889030,"gmtModify":1634553471433,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>正式起航了吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>正式起航了吗","text":"$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$正式起航了吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382726610","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382131678,"gmtCreate":1613380297694,"gmtModify":1631890613329,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>its time","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>its time","text":"$Gran Tierra(GTE)$its time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382131678","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388103903,"gmtCreate":1613033170602,"gmtModify":1703768554700,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>再来吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>再来吗","text":"$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$再来吗","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7524a796c5f3e057abce617c6604304a","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388103903","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381892411,"gmtCreate":1612950853933,"gmtModify":1703767335063,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>再来几点吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>再来几点吧","text":"$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$再来几点吧","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e3d8eecb11c2ed30d3706ded1768952","width":"1284","height":"2457"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381892411","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383899456,"gmtCreate":1612861948675,"gmtModify":1703765920367,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$[得意] [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383899456","repostId":"1107682656","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107682656","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612851008,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107682656?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 14:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US stocks are in a bubble, and it's unclear when it will pop, hedge fund manager says<blockquote>对冲基金经理表示，美国股市正处于泡沫之中，尚不清楚何时会破裂</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107682656","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) The V-shaped recovery in the stock market is gathering serious momentum.\nThe","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;</b>The V-shaped recovery in the stock market is gathering serious momentum.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>股市的V型复苏势头强劲。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is now 75% higher than its low point last March. The Nasdaq has more than doubled since its pandemic low. Tesla shares are up a staggering 900% over that span. And an&nbsp;army of traders on Reddit&nbsp;were able tosend GameStop to the moon, at least&nbsp;for a few days.</p><p><blockquote>标普500现在比去年3月的低点高出75%。自大流行低点以来，纳斯达克已经上涨了一倍多。在此期间，特斯拉股价上涨了惊人的900%。Reddit上的一大群交易者能够将游戏驿站送上月球，至少持续几天。</blockquote></p><p> Although there is good reason for&nbsp;optimism&nbsp;about the&nbsp;economy&nbsp;and the pandemic, some fear themarket euphoria is getting out of hand-- yet it's impossible to time the bubble's burst.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有充分的理由对经济和疫情持乐观态度，但一些人担心市场的兴奋情绪正在失控——但不可能确定泡沫破裂的时间。</blockquote></p><p> \"I do think we are in a bubble like we were in 2000,\" veteran hedge fund manager Mark Yusko told CNN Business. \"That doesn't mean that tomorrow the market is going to crash.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我确实认为我们正处于像2000年一样的泡沫之中，”资深对冲基金经理马克·尤斯科(Mark Yusko)告诉CNN Business。“这并不意味着明天市场就会崩溃。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko, the CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, pointed to signs of extreme market speculation, such as the 1,625% spike forGameStop(GME)in January.</p><p><blockquote>Morgan Creek Capital Management首席执行官尤斯科指出了市场极端投机的迹象，例如GameStop(GME)1月份飙升1,625%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Equity markets broadly are in bubble territory. Look at the parabolic moves by a number of companies like Tesla,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“股市总体上处于泡沫区域。看看特斯拉等许多公司的抛物线走势，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;(TSLA)&nbsp;shares gained another 2% Monday after the company announced it is investing $1.5 billion in bitcoin&nbsp;and&nbsp;will begin accepting the cryptocurrency for payment.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉(TSLA)宣布将向比特币投资15亿美元并将开始接受加密货币支付后，该公司股价周一又上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> Yusko also pointed to howApple's&nbsp;(AAPL)&nbsp;annual net income has barely budged over the past five years. But per-share earnings, which drive share prices, have climbed sharply because the iPhone maker has aggressively repurchased its shares.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科还指出，苹果公司(AAPL)的年度净利润在过去五年中几乎没有变化。但由于这家iPhone制造商积极回购股票，推动股价的每股收益大幅攀升。</blockquote></p><p> \"That's just financial engineering,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是金融工程，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Impossible to time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>无法计时</b></blockquote></p><p> Another exhibit in Yusko's bubble case is Snowflake. The&nbsp;money-losing cloud computing company, which went public in September, is trading at 327 times revenue, according to data provider Refinitiv. That's well above what even&nbsp;Zoom&nbsp;(ZM)&nbsp;and&nbsp;DocuSign&nbsp;(DOCU)&nbsp;trade at.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科泡泡盒中的另一件展品是雪花。根据数据提供商Refinitiv的数据，这家亏损的云计算公司于9月份上市，目前的交易价格是收入的327倍。这甚至远高于Zoom(ZM)和DocuSign(DOCU)的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> Yusko's bubble warning echoes ones made in recent weeks by other well-known market players.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科的泡沫警告与其他知名市场参与者最近几周发出的警告相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> Last month famed investor Jeremy Grantham said the bull market that began in 2009 had&nbsp;\"matured into a full-fledged epic bubble\"marked by \"&nbsp;extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance and hysterically speculative investor behavior.\"</p><p><blockquote>上个月，著名投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)表示，始于2009年的牛市已经“成熟为一场成熟的史诗般的泡沫”，其特点是“估值极度高估、价格爆炸性上涨、疯狂发行和歇斯底里的投机投资者行为”。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one can time when a bubble will pop. And overheated markets can get much hotter before finally cooling off.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人能确定泡沫何时会破裂。过热的市场在最终降温之前可能会变得更热。</blockquote></p><p> \"The challenge with extreme valuations is they can go on longer than you think,\" Yusko said.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科说：“极端估值的挑战在于，它们的持续时间可能比你想象的要长。”</blockquote></p><p> And Yusko has been overly bearish before. Two years ago, he warned that the&nbsp;stock market was overvalued&nbsp;and tech stocks in particular would fall sharply. Yet the S&amp;P 500 is up more than 40% since then — despite the worst pandemic in a century.</p><p><blockquote>而尤斯科此前也曾过度看空。两年前，他警告称股市被高估，尤其是科技股将大幅下跌。然而，自那时以来，标普500上涨了40%以上——尽管疫情是一个世纪以来最严重的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley: Get on board or get out of the way</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利：要么加入，要么让开</b></blockquote></p><p> While Yusko and Grantham are sounding the alarm, some major Wall Street firms remain very optimistic on the economy and the stock market. They point to the persistence of rock-bottom interest rates that have forced investors to bet on stocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然尤斯科和格兰瑟姆敲响了警钟，但一些华尔街大公司仍然对经济和股市非常乐观。他们指出，最低利率的持续存在迫使投资者押注股票。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs upgraded its forecasts for second-quarter 2021 and 2022 GDP on Monday because of a sense that Democrats will pass a significantly larger relief package than previously anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>高盛周一上调了对2021年第二季度和2022年GDP的预测，因为人们认为民主党将通过一项比此前预期大得多的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects the S&amp;P 500 to climb to 4,300 by year end, up about 11% from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，高盛预计标普500到年底将攀升至4,300点，较当前水平上涨约11%。</blockquote></p><p> Michael Wilson, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, thinks the stock market's Reddit-driven scare is already firmly in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊认为，股市由Reddit引发的恐慌已经成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> \"It appears that greed once again has the upper hand over fear and the bull market is ready to resume in earnest,\" Wilson wrote in a note to clients Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊周日在给客户的一份报告中写道：“贪婪似乎再次战胜了恐惧，牛市已准备好认真恢复。”</blockquote></p><p> After suffering its worst week since October, the S&amp;P 500 rapidly regained its losses last week, spiking 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了10月份以来最糟糕的一周后，标普500上周迅速收复失地，飙升4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Even though Wilson has recently&nbsp;called out signs of complacency and extreme risk, he is warning his clients not to fight this market rally.</p><p><blockquote>尽管威尔逊最近指出了自满和极端风险的迹象，但他警告客户不要对抗这次市场反弹。</blockquote></p><p> \"The prevailing view of better economic growth, more fiscal stimulus to come and continued money printing from the fed has everyone 'all in,'\" Wilson wrote. \"When such periods occur, it's rarely been easy or wise to get in the way. Instead, these trends typically need to run their course until they are derailed or simply exhausted.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊写道：“人们普遍认为经济增长更好、即将出台更多财政刺激措施以及美联储继续印钞，这让每个人都‘全力以赴’。”“当这样的时期发生时，阻碍很少是容易或明智的。相反，这些趋势通常需要顺其自然，直到脱轨或干脆筋疲力尽。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPAC mania</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPAC狂热</b></blockquote></p><p> Even Yusko, the Morgan Creek hedge fund manager, is diving headfirst into one area of market speculation:&nbsp;SPAC mania.</p><p><blockquote>就连摩根溪对冲基金经理尤斯科也一头扎进了市场投机的一个领域：SPAC狂热。</blockquote></p><p> Special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are shells with no operating assets that exist purely to take private companies public. Virgin Galactic, DraftKings and Nikola have all gone public this way instead of a traditional IPO.Even former baseball superstar Alex Rodriguez&nbsp;is trying to raise $500 million through a SPAC called Slam Corp.</p><p><blockquote>特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）是没有运营资产的空壳，纯粹是为了让私营公司上市而存在的。维珍银河、DraftKings和Nikola都以这种方式上市，而不是传统的IPO。就连前棒球巨星A·罗德里格兹也试图通过一家名为Slam Corp的特殊目的收购公司筹集5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Late last month, Yusko launched Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF, a fund that will target pre- and post-merger SPACs with an equal weight approach.</p><p><blockquote>上月底，Yusko推出了Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF，该基金将以同等权重的方式瞄准合并前和合并后的SPAC。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But some argue SPACs are more evidence of bubble-like behavior on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>但一些人认为SPAC更多地证明了华尔街的泡沫行为。</blockquote></p><p> SPACs are \"an invitation to give me your money and I'll let you know one day what I'm going to do with it,\" Grantham recently told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>格兰瑟姆最近对CNBC表示，SPAC是“邀请你把钱给我，有一天我会让你知道我要用它做什么”。</blockquote></p><p> During the first three weeks of 2021 alone, SPACs raised $16 billion, surpassing the $13 billion that was raised in all of 2019, according to Goldman Sachs.</p><p><blockquote>根据高盛的数据，仅在2021年前三周，SPAC就筹集了160亿美元，超过了2019年全年筹集的130亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bubble-like sentiment surrounds SPACs,\" Goldman Sachs analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师表示：“SPAC周围弥漫着泡沫般的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko disagreed with that sentiment and suggested the criticism from Goldman Sachs is convenient because the Wall Street bank relies on traditional IPOs for a chunk of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科不同意这种观点，并表示高盛的批评很方便，因为这家华尔街银行的大部分收入依赖于传统的IPO。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's intellectually lazy to make that statement,\" he said. \"Saying SPACs are the problem is like saying hedge funds or mutual funds are the problem. It's just a legal structure.\"</p><p><blockquote>“发表这样的声明在智力上是懒惰的，”他说。“说SPAC是问题就像说对冲基金或共同基金是问题一样。这只是一个法律结构。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko said SPACs are cheaper, more flexible and a smarter way to raise money than traditional IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>Yusko表示，与传统IPO相比，SPAC更便宜、更灵活，是一种更聪明的融资方式。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike the other two SPAC ETFs that have recently launched, Yusko's fund is actively managed. That's critical, he said, because not all SPACs will be winners, especially given the loftiness of current market valuations.</p><p><blockquote>与最近推出的另外两只SPAC ETF不同，Yusko的基金是主动管理的。他表示，这一点至关重要，因为并非所有SPAC都会成为赢家，特别是考虑到当前市场估值很高。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are in an environment,\" Yusko said, \"where we believe caution is warranted.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们所处的环境，”尤斯科说，“我们认为有必要保持谨慎。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks are in a bubble, and it's unclear when it will pop, hedge fund manager says<blockquote>对冲基金经理表示，美国股市正处于泡沫之中，尚不清楚何时会破裂</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks are in a bubble, and it's unclear when it will pop, hedge fund manager says<blockquote>对冲基金经理表示，美国股市正处于泡沫之中，尚不清楚何时会破裂</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-09 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;</b>The V-shaped recovery in the stock market is gathering serious momentum.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>股市的V型复苏势头强劲。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is now 75% higher than its low point last March. The Nasdaq has more than doubled since its pandemic low. Tesla shares are up a staggering 900% over that span. And an&nbsp;army of traders on Reddit&nbsp;were able tosend GameStop to the moon, at least&nbsp;for a few days.</p><p><blockquote>标普500现在比去年3月的低点高出75%。自大流行低点以来，纳斯达克已经上涨了一倍多。在此期间，特斯拉股价上涨了惊人的900%。Reddit上的一大群交易者能够将游戏驿站送上月球，至少持续几天。</blockquote></p><p> Although there is good reason for&nbsp;optimism&nbsp;about the&nbsp;economy&nbsp;and the pandemic, some fear themarket euphoria is getting out of hand-- yet it's impossible to time the bubble's burst.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有充分的理由对经济和疫情持乐观态度，但一些人担心市场的兴奋情绪正在失控——但不可能确定泡沫破裂的时间。</blockquote></p><p> \"I do think we are in a bubble like we were in 2000,\" veteran hedge fund manager Mark Yusko told CNN Business. \"That doesn't mean that tomorrow the market is going to crash.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我确实认为我们正处于像2000年一样的泡沫之中，”资深对冲基金经理马克·尤斯科(Mark Yusko)告诉CNN Business。“这并不意味着明天市场就会崩溃。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko, the CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, pointed to signs of extreme market speculation, such as the 1,625% spike forGameStop(GME)in January.</p><p><blockquote>Morgan Creek Capital Management首席执行官尤斯科指出了市场极端投机的迹象，例如GameStop(GME)1月份飙升1,625%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Equity markets broadly are in bubble territory. Look at the parabolic moves by a number of companies like Tesla,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“股市总体上处于泡沫区域。看看特斯拉等许多公司的抛物线走势，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;(TSLA)&nbsp;shares gained another 2% Monday after the company announced it is investing $1.5 billion in bitcoin&nbsp;and&nbsp;will begin accepting the cryptocurrency for payment.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉(TSLA)宣布将向比特币投资15亿美元并将开始接受加密货币支付后，该公司股价周一又上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> Yusko also pointed to howApple's&nbsp;(AAPL)&nbsp;annual net income has barely budged over the past five years. But per-share earnings, which drive share prices, have climbed sharply because the iPhone maker has aggressively repurchased its shares.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科还指出，苹果公司(AAPL)的年度净利润在过去五年中几乎没有变化。但由于这家iPhone制造商积极回购股票，推动股价的每股收益大幅攀升。</blockquote></p><p> \"That's just financial engineering,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是金融工程，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Impossible to time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>无法计时</b></blockquote></p><p> Another exhibit in Yusko's bubble case is Snowflake. The&nbsp;money-losing cloud computing company, which went public in September, is trading at 327 times revenue, according to data provider Refinitiv. That's well above what even&nbsp;Zoom&nbsp;(ZM)&nbsp;and&nbsp;DocuSign&nbsp;(DOCU)&nbsp;trade at.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科泡泡盒中的另一件展品是雪花。根据数据提供商Refinitiv的数据，这家亏损的云计算公司于9月份上市，目前的交易价格是收入的327倍。这甚至远高于Zoom(ZM)和DocuSign(DOCU)的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> Yusko's bubble warning echoes ones made in recent weeks by other well-known market players.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科的泡沫警告与其他知名市场参与者最近几周发出的警告相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> Last month famed investor Jeremy Grantham said the bull market that began in 2009 had&nbsp;\"matured into a full-fledged epic bubble\"marked by \"&nbsp;extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance and hysterically speculative investor behavior.\"</p><p><blockquote>上个月，著名投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)表示，始于2009年的牛市已经“成熟为一场成熟的史诗般的泡沫”，其特点是“估值极度高估、价格爆炸性上涨、疯狂发行和歇斯底里的投机投资者行为”。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one can time when a bubble will pop. And overheated markets can get much hotter before finally cooling off.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人能确定泡沫何时会破裂。过热的市场在最终降温之前可能会变得更热。</blockquote></p><p> \"The challenge with extreme valuations is they can go on longer than you think,\" Yusko said.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科说：“极端估值的挑战在于，它们的持续时间可能比你想象的要长。”</blockquote></p><p> And Yusko has been overly bearish before. Two years ago, he warned that the&nbsp;stock market was overvalued&nbsp;and tech stocks in particular would fall sharply. Yet the S&amp;P 500 is up more than 40% since then — despite the worst pandemic in a century.</p><p><blockquote>而尤斯科此前也曾过度看空。两年前，他警告称股市被高估，尤其是科技股将大幅下跌。然而，自那时以来，标普500上涨了40%以上——尽管疫情是一个世纪以来最严重的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley: Get on board or get out of the way</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利：要么加入，要么让开</b></blockquote></p><p> While Yusko and Grantham are sounding the alarm, some major Wall Street firms remain very optimistic on the economy and the stock market. They point to the persistence of rock-bottom interest rates that have forced investors to bet on stocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然尤斯科和格兰瑟姆敲响了警钟，但一些华尔街大公司仍然对经济和股市非常乐观。他们指出，最低利率的持续存在迫使投资者押注股票。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs upgraded its forecasts for second-quarter 2021 and 2022 GDP on Monday because of a sense that Democrats will pass a significantly larger relief package than previously anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>高盛周一上调了对2021年第二季度和2022年GDP的预测，因为人们认为民主党将通过一项比此前预期大得多的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects the S&amp;P 500 to climb to 4,300 by year end, up about 11% from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，高盛预计标普500到年底将攀升至4,300点，较当前水平上涨约11%。</blockquote></p><p> Michael Wilson, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, thinks the stock market's Reddit-driven scare is already firmly in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊认为，股市由Reddit引发的恐慌已经成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> \"It appears that greed once again has the upper hand over fear and the bull market is ready to resume in earnest,\" Wilson wrote in a note to clients Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊周日在给客户的一份报告中写道：“贪婪似乎再次战胜了恐惧，牛市已准备好认真恢复。”</blockquote></p><p> After suffering its worst week since October, the S&amp;P 500 rapidly regained its losses last week, spiking 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了10月份以来最糟糕的一周后，标普500上周迅速收复失地，飙升4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Even though Wilson has recently&nbsp;called out signs of complacency and extreme risk, he is warning his clients not to fight this market rally.</p><p><blockquote>尽管威尔逊最近指出了自满和极端风险的迹象，但他警告客户不要对抗这次市场反弹。</blockquote></p><p> \"The prevailing view of better economic growth, more fiscal stimulus to come and continued money printing from the fed has everyone 'all in,'\" Wilson wrote. \"When such periods occur, it's rarely been easy or wise to get in the way. Instead, these trends typically need to run their course until they are derailed or simply exhausted.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊写道：“人们普遍认为经济增长更好、即将出台更多财政刺激措施以及美联储继续印钞，这让每个人都‘全力以赴’。”“当这样的时期发生时，阻碍很少是容易或明智的。相反，这些趋势通常需要顺其自然，直到脱轨或干脆筋疲力尽。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPAC mania</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPAC狂热</b></blockquote></p><p> Even Yusko, the Morgan Creek hedge fund manager, is diving headfirst into one area of market speculation:&nbsp;SPAC mania.</p><p><blockquote>就连摩根溪对冲基金经理尤斯科也一头扎进了市场投机的一个领域：SPAC狂热。</blockquote></p><p> Special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are shells with no operating assets that exist purely to take private companies public. Virgin Galactic, DraftKings and Nikola have all gone public this way instead of a traditional IPO.Even former baseball superstar Alex Rodriguez&nbsp;is trying to raise $500 million through a SPAC called Slam Corp.</p><p><blockquote>特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）是没有运营资产的空壳，纯粹是为了让私营公司上市而存在的。维珍银河、DraftKings和Nikola都以这种方式上市，而不是传统的IPO。就连前棒球巨星A·罗德里格兹也试图通过一家名为Slam Corp的特殊目的收购公司筹集5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Late last month, Yusko launched Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF, a fund that will target pre- and post-merger SPACs with an equal weight approach.</p><p><blockquote>上月底，Yusko推出了Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF，该基金将以同等权重的方式瞄准合并前和合并后的SPAC。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But some argue SPACs are more evidence of bubble-like behavior on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>但一些人认为SPAC更多地证明了华尔街的泡沫行为。</blockquote></p><p> SPACs are \"an invitation to give me your money and I'll let you know one day what I'm going to do with it,\" Grantham recently told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>格兰瑟姆最近对CNBC表示，SPAC是“邀请你把钱给我，有一天我会让你知道我要用它做什么”。</blockquote></p><p> During the first three weeks of 2021 alone, SPACs raised $16 billion, surpassing the $13 billion that was raised in all of 2019, according to Goldman Sachs.</p><p><blockquote>根据高盛的数据，仅在2021年前三周，SPAC就筹集了160亿美元，超过了2019年全年筹集的130亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bubble-like sentiment surrounds SPACs,\" Goldman Sachs analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师表示：“SPAC周围弥漫着泡沫般的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko disagreed with that sentiment and suggested the criticism from Goldman Sachs is convenient because the Wall Street bank relies on traditional IPOs for a chunk of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科不同意这种观点，并表示高盛的批评很方便，因为这家华尔街银行的大部分收入依赖于传统的IPO。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's intellectually lazy to make that statement,\" he said. \"Saying SPACs are the problem is like saying hedge funds or mutual funds are the problem. It's just a legal structure.\"</p><p><blockquote>“发表这样的声明在智力上是懒惰的，”他说。“说SPAC是问题就像说对冲基金或共同基金是问题一样。这只是一个法律结构。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko said SPACs are cheaper, more flexible and a smarter way to raise money than traditional IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>Yusko表示，与传统IPO相比，SPAC更便宜、更灵活，是一种更聪明的融资方式。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike the other two SPAC ETFs that have recently launched, Yusko's fund is actively managed. That's critical, he said, because not all SPACs will be winners, especially given the loftiness of current market valuations.</p><p><blockquote>与最近推出的另外两只SPAC ETF不同，Yusko的基金是主动管理的。他表示，这一点至关重要，因为并非所有SPAC都会成为赢家，特别是考虑到当前市场估值很高。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are in an environment,\" Yusko said, \"where we believe caution is warranted.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们所处的环境，”尤斯科说，“我们认为有必要保持谨慎。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/08/investing/wall-street-market-bubble-yusko/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉","ZM":"Zoom","GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/08/investing/wall-street-market-bubble-yusko/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107682656","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) The V-shaped recovery in the stock market is gathering serious momentum.\nThe S&P 500 is now 75% higher than its low point last March. The Nasdaq has more than doubled since its pandemic low. Tesla shares are up a staggering 900% over that span. And an army of traders on Reddit were able tosend GameStop to the moon, at least for a few days.\nAlthough there is good reason for optimism about the economy and the pandemic, some fear themarket euphoria is getting out of hand-- yet it's impossible to time the bubble's burst.\n\"I do think we are in a bubble like we were in 2000,\" veteran hedge fund manager Mark Yusko told CNN Business. \"That doesn't mean that tomorrow the market is going to crash.\"\nYusko, the CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, pointed to signs of extreme market speculation, such as the 1,625% spike forGameStop(GME)in January.\n\"Equity markets broadly are in bubble territory. Look at the parabolic moves by a number of companies like Tesla,\" he said.\nTesla (TSLA) shares gained another 2% Monday after the company announced it is investing $1.5 billion in bitcoin and will begin accepting the cryptocurrency for payment.\nYusko also pointed to howApple's (AAPL) annual net income has barely budged over the past five years. But per-share earnings, which drive share prices, have climbed sharply because the iPhone maker has aggressively repurchased its shares.\n\"That's just financial engineering,\" he said.\nImpossible to time\nAnother exhibit in Yusko's bubble case is Snowflake. The money-losing cloud computing company, which went public in September, is trading at 327 times revenue, according to data provider Refinitiv. That's well above what even Zoom (ZM) and DocuSign (DOCU) trade at.\nYusko's bubble warning echoes ones made in recent weeks by other well-known market players.\nLast month famed investor Jeremy Grantham said the bull market that began in 2009 had \"matured into a full-fledged epic bubble\"marked by \" extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance and hysterically speculative investor behavior.\"\nOf course, no one can time when a bubble will pop. And overheated markets can get much hotter before finally cooling off.\n\"The challenge with extreme valuations is they can go on longer than you think,\" Yusko said.\nAnd Yusko has been overly bearish before. Two years ago, he warned that the stock market was overvalued and tech stocks in particular would fall sharply. Yet the S&P 500 is up more than 40% since then — despite the worst pandemic in a century.\nMorgan Stanley: Get on board or get out of the way\nWhile Yusko and Grantham are sounding the alarm, some major Wall Street firms remain very optimistic on the economy and the stock market. They point to the persistence of rock-bottom interest rates that have forced investors to bet on stocks.\nGoldman Sachs upgraded its forecasts for second-quarter 2021 and 2022 GDP on Monday because of a sense that Democrats will pass a significantly larger relief package than previously anticipated.\nMeanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to climb to 4,300 by year end, up about 11% from current levels.\nMichael Wilson, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, thinks the stock market's Reddit-driven scare is already firmly in the rearview mirror.\n\"It appears that greed once again has the upper hand over fear and the bull market is ready to resume in earnest,\" Wilson wrote in a note to clients Sunday.\nAfter suffering its worst week since October, the S&P 500 rapidly regained its losses last week, spiking 4.7%.\nEven though Wilson has recently called out signs of complacency and extreme risk, he is warning his clients not to fight this market rally.\n\"The prevailing view of better economic growth, more fiscal stimulus to come and continued money printing from the fed has everyone 'all in,'\" Wilson wrote. \"When such periods occur, it's rarely been easy or wise to get in the way. Instead, these trends typically need to run their course until they are derailed or simply exhausted.\"\nSPAC mania\nEven Yusko, the Morgan Creek hedge fund manager, is diving headfirst into one area of market speculation: SPAC mania.\nSpecial purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are shells with no operating assets that exist purely to take private companies public. Virgin Galactic, DraftKings and Nikola have all gone public this way instead of a traditional IPO.Even former baseball superstar Alex Rodriguez is trying to raise $500 million through a SPAC called Slam Corp.\nLate last month, Yusko launched Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF, a fund that will target pre- and post-merger SPACs with an equal weight approach.\nBut some argue SPACs are more evidence of bubble-like behavior on Wall Street.\nSPACs are \"an invitation to give me your money and I'll let you know one day what I'm going to do with it,\" Grantham recently told CNBC.\nDuring the first three weeks of 2021 alone, SPACs raised $16 billion, surpassing the $13 billion that was raised in all of 2019, according to Goldman Sachs.\n\"Bubble-like sentiment surrounds SPACs,\" Goldman Sachs analysts said.\nYusko disagreed with that sentiment and suggested the criticism from Goldman Sachs is convenient because the Wall Street bank relies on traditional IPOs for a chunk of its revenue.\n\"It's intellectually lazy to make that statement,\" he said. \"Saying SPACs are the problem is like saying hedge funds or mutual funds are the problem. It's just a legal structure.\"\nYusko said SPACs are cheaper, more flexible and a smarter way to raise money than traditional IPOs.\nUnlike the other two SPAC ETFs that have recently launched, Yusko's fund is actively managed. That's critical, he said, because not all SPACs will be winners, especially given the loftiness of current market valuations.\n\"We are in an environment,\" Yusko said, \"where we believe caution is warranted.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"GME":0.9,"ZM":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383899374,"gmtCreate":1612861918098,"gmtModify":1703765919335,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$[得意] [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383899374","repostId":"1107808840","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389473709,"gmtCreate":1612796638601,"gmtModify":1703765207007,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>都想下车了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>都想下车了","text":"$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$都想下车了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973b70cb38a241055a869839413947e4","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389473709","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3517242319334973","authorId":"3517242319334973","name":"IceWarm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7690ac917adce7b645831431594e5a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3517242319334973","authorIdStr":"3517242319334973"},"content":"不够手续费的","text":"不够手续费的","html":"不够手续费的"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389502966,"gmtCreate":1612784242155,"gmtModify":1703764948470,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389502966","repostId":"1193450954","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389506446,"gmtCreate":1612784211385,"gmtModify":1703764947778,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hmmm","listText":"hmmm","text":"hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389506446","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195153829?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持您的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 18:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持您的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GME":"游戏驿站",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GME":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389508727,"gmtCreate":1612784157569,"gmtModify":1703764946397,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"沉默三年了 是时候了吧","listText":"沉默三年了 是时候了吧","text":"沉默三年了 是时候了吧","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab9495861b9e15637c1f677cdbb935d1","width":"1125","height":"3456"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389508727","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317547451,"gmtCreate":1612458989773,"gmtModify":1703762305121,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317547451","repostId":"317549621","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":317549621,"gmtCreate":1612458036963,"gmtModify":1703762295511,"author":{"id":"3571429530437259","authorId":"3571429530437259","name":"和卡夫卡聊天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1409249fe41961c28030ee0df33b4f1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571429530437259","authorIdStr":"3571429530437259"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>阶递式拉升，是指庄家将股价拉升一定幅度后，采取平台或强势整理的方式调整，暂时停止拉升动作。这样，将使那些没有耐心的持股者出局，达到清洗掉一部分意志不坚定持股者的目的。等到股价横盘一段时间后再度进行拉升操作，股价拉升到一定位置后再次整理，如此反复，直至将股价拉升至最终目标价。从K线走势图上看，股价呈现出阶梯式的步步高升，因此称为阶梯式拉升。阶梯式拉升适用于庄家实力较强、操作标的股票基本面好、后市存在重大题材的股票。在拉升之前，由于股价在低位徘徊时间较久，无形中给大部分散户造成了一种心理定势，即股价不应该涨得太高。因此，当股价从低位启动上升到一个新高度时，一般散户会有落袋为安的想法，当股价拉升到一定位置时会出现一部分抛压。如果庄家采用阶梯式拉升，就可以通过阶梯横盘形成新的价值定位，从而获得散户对新价位的认可和赞同。通过阶梯式拉升的方式拉升股价，多次操作后，将逐步使散户适应这种模式，散户会认为股价经过一段时间横盘后又会上涨，这样可保证庄家横盘出货时不引起散户的恐慌。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>阶递式拉升，是指庄家将股价拉升一定幅度后，采取平台或强势整理的方式调整，暂时停止拉升动作。这样，将使那些没有耐心的持股者出局，达到清洗掉一部分意志不坚定持股者的目的。等到股价横盘一段时间后再度进行拉升操作，股价拉升到一定位置后再次整理，如此反复，直至将股价拉升至最终目标价。从K线走势图上看，股价呈现出阶梯式的步步高升，因此称为阶梯式拉升。阶梯式拉升适用于庄家实力较强、操作标的股票基本面好、后市存在重大题材的股票。在拉升之前，由于股价在低位徘徊时间较久，无形中给大部分散户造成了一种心理定势，即股价不应该涨得太高。因此，当股价从低位启动上升到一个新高度时，一般散户会有落袋为安的想法，当股价拉升到一定位置时会出现一部分抛压。如果庄家采用阶梯式拉升，就可以通过阶梯横盘形成新的价值定位，从而获得散户对新价位的认可和赞同。通过阶梯式拉升的方式拉升股价，多次操作后，将逐步使散户适应这种模式，散户会认为股价经过一段时间横盘后又会上涨，这样可保证庄家横盘出货时不引起散户的恐慌。","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$阶递式拉升，是指庄家将股价拉升一定幅度后，采取平台或强势整理的方式调整，暂时停止拉升动作。这样，将使那些没有耐心的持股者出局，达到清洗掉一部分意志不坚定持股者的目的。等到股价横盘一段时间后再度进行拉升操作，股价拉升到一定位置后再次整理，如此反复，直至将股价拉升至最终目标价。从K线走势图上看，股价呈现出阶梯式的步步高升，因此称为阶梯式拉升。阶梯式拉升适用于庄家实力较强、操作标的股票基本面好、后市存在重大题材的股票。在拉升之前，由于股价在低位徘徊时间较久，无形中给大部分散户造成了一种心理定势，即股价不应该涨得太高。因此，当股价从低位启动上升到一个新高度时，一般散户会有落袋为安的想法，当股价拉升到一定位置时会出现一部分抛压。如果庄家采用阶梯式拉升，就可以通过阶梯横盘形成新的价值定位，从而获得散户对新价位的认可和赞同。通过阶梯式拉升的方式拉升股价，多次操作后，将逐步使散户适应这种模式，散户会认为股价经过一段时间横盘后又会上涨，这样可保证庄家横盘出货时不引起散户的恐慌。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317549621","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317588431,"gmtCreate":1612455338623,"gmtModify":1703762245576,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317588431","repostId":"317822860","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":389473709,"gmtCreate":1612796638601,"gmtModify":1703765207007,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>都想下车了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>都想下车了","text":"$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$都想下车了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973b70cb38a241055a869839413947e4","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389473709","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3517242319334973","authorId":"3517242319334973","name":"IceWarm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7690ac917adce7b645831431594e5a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3517242319334973","authorIdStr":"3517242319334973"},"content":"不够手续费的","text":"不够手续费的","html":"不够手续费的"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364687045,"gmtCreate":1614848279787,"gmtModify":1703481886196,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>will be up?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>will be up?","text":"$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$will be up?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364687045","repostId":"2116257515","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365470146,"gmtCreate":1614775677985,"gmtModify":1703480946423,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Excellent<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, 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Tierra(GTE)$</a>","text":"What about $Gran Tierra(GTE)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387965763","repostId":"2112813609","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318011098,"gmtCreate":1611836079014,"gmtModify":1703754543958,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>来了来了 见证历史的一刻[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>来了来了 见证历史的一刻[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$来了来了 见证历史的一刻[龇牙] [龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318011098","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384833294,"gmtCreate":1613636636218,"gmtModify":1634552851654,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Never consider bout <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"Never consider bout <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"Never consider bout $Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384833294","repostId":"1124565484","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124565484","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613631190,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124565484?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-18 14:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"22 additional dividend stocks that Warren Buffett might consider buying<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可能考虑购买的22只额外股息股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124565484","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"His Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate recently started buying shares of Verizon and Chevron — both hav","content":"<p><b>His Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate recently started buying shares of Verizon and Chevron — both have attractive dividend yields well-supported by expected cash flow.</b>A vote of confidence by Warren Buffett in a particular stock doesn’t mean you should jump on the bandwagon, but the Berkshire Hathaway CEO’s long-term track record speaks for itself. The man knows how to spot a bargain.</p><p><blockquote><b>他的伯克希尔哈撒韦集团最近开始购买威瑞森和雪佛龙的股票——这两家公司的股息收益率都很有吸引力，并得到了预期现金流的良好支持。</b>沃伦·巴菲特对某只股票投下信任票并不意味着你应该追随这一潮流，但这位伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官的长期业绩记录不言而喻。这个人知道如何发现便宜货。</blockquote></p><p>Below is a screen of stocks inspired by Buffett’s two new picks that feature attractive dividend yields that are expected to be well-covered by free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>下面是受巴菲特两只新精选股票启发的股票屏幕，这些股票具有有吸引力的股息收益率，预计自由现金流将充分覆盖。</blockquote></p><p>Word of Buffett’s new investment positions can send shares higher as other investors’ ears perk up. This happened after Berkshire Hathaway Inc.BRKdisclosed late Feb. 16 that it had purchased shares of Verizon Communications Inc.VZ.and Chevron Corp.CVX— two stocks with attractive dividend yields, one of which is cheaply priced when compared to the weighted valuation of the S&amp;P 500 IndexSPX.</p><p><blockquote>随着其他投资者的耳朵竖起来，巴菲特新投资头寸的消息可能会推高股价。此前，Berkshire Hathaway Inc.BRK于2月16日晚披露已购买Verizon Communications Inc.VZ和Chevron Corp.CVX的股票，这两只股票具有有吸引力的股息收益率，其中一只与加权估值相比定价较低标普500指数SPX。</blockquote></p><p>Shares of Verizon were up 3% in early trading Feb. 17, while Chevron was up 3.5%. With dividends reinvested, Verizon had declined 7% for 2021 through Feb. 16, following a flat performance in 2020. Chevron was up 1.5% early Feb. 17 and had already risen 12% for 2021 following a 26% decline in 2020. Oil is on the upswing as investors look ahead to life after the pandemic. West Texas Intermediate crude oilCRUDE OILhad risen 68% from the close on Oct. 31 through Feb. 16, when it settled at $60.05 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>Verizon股价在2月17日早盘交易中上涨3%，雪佛龙股价上涨3.5%。随着股息再投资，Verizon继2020年业绩持平后，截至2月16日，2021年股价下跌了7%。雪佛龙2月17日早些时候上涨1.5%，继2020年下跌26%后，2021年已上涨12%。随着投资者展望大流行后的生活，油价正在上涨。西德克萨斯中质原油从10月31日收盘到2月16日收盘上涨了68%，最终收于每桶60.05美元。</blockquote></p><p>All of the following is based on closing prices Feb. 16 and consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>以下所有内容均基于2月16日的收盘价以及FactSet调查的分析师对未来12个月的一致预期。</blockquote></p><p>Verizon’s stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7, compared to a weighted aggregate forward P/E of 22.5 for the S&amp;P 500. The shares have a dividend yield of 4.64%.</p><p><blockquote>Verizon股票的预期市盈率为10.7，而标普500的加权总预期市盈率为22.5。该股的股息率为4.64%。</blockquote></p><p>One way to gauge a company’s ability to cover its dividend (and hopefully raise it) is to look at its free cash flow, which is its remaining cash flow after planned capital expenditures. This is money that can be used for any corporate purpose, including expansion, share repurchases or dividend increases. We can measure a company’s free cash flow yield by dividing trailing or estimated free cash flow by the current share price. Because of the disruptions to the U.S. economy in 2020, all the free cash flow yields that follow make use of consensus estimates for the next 12 reported months.</p><p><blockquote>衡量公司支付股息（并希望提高股息）能力的一种方法是查看其自由现金流，即计划资本支出后的剩余现金流。这笔钱可用于任何公司目的，包括扩张、股票回购或增加股息。我们可以通过将跟踪或估计的自由现金流除以当前股价来衡量公司的自由现金流收益率。由于2020年美国经济受到干扰，随后的所有自由现金流收益率均采用未来12个报告月的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p>Verizion’s forward free cash flow yield is 8.97%, showing “headroom” of 4.34% over the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>Verizion的远期自由现金流收益率为8.97%，比当前股息有4.34%的“净空”。</blockquote></p><p>Chevron’s stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24.8, which is higher than that of the S&amp;P 500. Then again, 2021 is expected to be a recovery year for oil and natural gas, and analysts’ earnings estimates may not have caught up with rising fuel commodity prices. Chevron’s dividend yield is 5.54% and its forward free cash flow yield is 7.99%, leaving “headroom” of 2.45%.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙股票的远期市盈率为24.8，高于标普500。话又说回来，预计2021年将是石油和天然气的复苏年，分析师的盈利预期可能没有赶上燃料大宗商品价格的上涨。雪佛龙的股息收益率为5.54%，远期自由现金流收益率为7.99%，还有2.45%的“净空”。</blockquote></p><p>None of this is to say that Buffett is overly fixated on stocks with high dividend yields. He isn’t. Among the publicly traded holdings the company disclosed Feb. 16, there are plenty of companies that pay no dividends, including Amazon.com Inc.AMZN,Biogen Inc.BIIB,Charter Communications Inc.CHTRand General Motors Co.GM,which suspended its quarterly dividend in April.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说巴菲特过度关注高股息收益率的股票。他不是。在该公司2月16日披露的公开交易持股中，有很多公司不支付股息，包括亚马逊公司（AMZN）、百健公司（Biogen Inc.BIIB）、Charter Communications Inc.CHTRand通用汽车公司（General Motors Co.GM），后者暂停了季度股息。四月。</blockquote></p><p><b>A Buffett dividend stock screen</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特股息股票屏幕</b></blockquote></p><p>Working from Buffett’s selections of Verizon and Chevron and excluding stocks Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t already hold, here are the 22 stocks among the S&amp;P 500 with dividend yields of at least 4.00%, for which free cash flow estimates for calendar 2021 are available, with headroom indicated. The list is sorted by dividend yield.</p><p><blockquote>根据巴菲特选择的Verizon和Chevron并排除Berkshire Hathaway尚未持有的股票，以下是标普500中股息收益率至少为4.00%的22只股票，可获得2021年的自由现金流估计，并有净空指示。该列表按股息收益率排序。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc941b397e252f4198fa8bb425fa2bbb\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Scroll the table to see all the data, including forward P/E ratios and total returns for 2021 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>滚动表格查看所有数据，包括2021年和2020年的远期市盈率和总回报。</blockquote></p><p>For real estate investment trusts, the industry standard for measuring dividend-paying ability is funds from operations, a non-GAAP figure that adds depreciation and amortization back to earnings and subtracts gains on the sale of property. So forward FFO estimates are used in the “estimated FCF yield” column on the table.</p><p><blockquote>对于房地产投资信托基金来说，衡量股息支付能力的行业标准是运营资金，这是一个非公认会计准则数字，将折旧和摊销加回收益中，并减去出售财产的收益。因此，表中的“估计FCF收益率”栏中使用了远期FFO估计值。</blockquote></p><p>The list excludes four stocks already held by Berkshire Hathaway — Verizon, Chevron and two more:</p><p><blockquote>该名单不包括伯克希尔哈撒韦公司已持有的四只股票——威瑞森、雪佛龙和另外两只股票：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><ul><li>AbbVie Inc.ABBVhas a dividend yield of 4.99%, with a forward free cash flow yield of 10.54% for headroom of 5.55%.</li><li>Kraft Heinz Co.KHChas a dividend yield of 4.52% and a forward free cash flow yield of 7.59% for headroom of 3.06%. The company cut its dividend by more than a third in February 2019.</li></ul>A high dividend yield might indicate investors are sour on the company’s business prospects or its ability to maintain the dividend over the long term, despite a high FCF yield. For example, the highest-yielding stock on the list is Lumen Technologies Inc.LUMN,which was CenturyLink before it was renamed in September. The dividend yield is 8.48%. CenturyLinkcut its quarterly dividend by 26% on the same day it authorized a $2 billion stock repurchase planin February 2013. The company’s quarterly dividend remained 54 cents a share until it wascut to the current 25 cents a sharein February 2019. For five years through Feb. 16, shares of Lumen/CenturyLink were down 34%, with dividends reinvested, while they were down 38% for 10 years.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>艾伯维公司ABBV的股息收益率为4.99%，远期自由现金流收益率为10.54%，净空为5.55%。</li><li>卡夫亨氏公司KHChas的股息收益率为4.52%，远期自由现金流收益率为7.59%，净空为3.06%。该公司于2019年2月将股息削减了三分之一以上。</li></ul>高股息收益率可能表明投资者对公司的业务前景或其长期维持股息的能力感到不满，尽管自由现金流收益率很高。例如，榜单上收益率最高的股票是Lumen Technologies Inc.LUMN，该公司在9月份更名之前是CenturyLink。股息率为8.48%。CenturyLink在2013年2月授权20亿美元股票回购计划的同一天，将季度股息削减了26%。该公司的季度股息仍为每股54美分，直到2019年2月削减至目前的每股25美分。截至2月16日的五年里，Lumen/CenturyLink的股价在股息再投资后下跌了34%，而10年来股价下跌了38%。</blockquote></p><p>Other companies on the list that have cut dividends over the past 10 years include Williams Cos.WMB,Kinder Morgan Inc.KMI,Vornado Realty TrustVNOand Simon Property Group Inc.SPG,which reduced its payout by 38% in June.</p><p><blockquote>名单上其他在过去10年中削减股息的公司包括Williams Cos.WMB、Kinder Morgan Inc.KMI、Vornado Realty TrustVNO和Simon Property Group Inc.SPG，后者在6月份将派息减少了38%。</blockquote></p><p>All of this emphasizes the importance of doing your own research to form your own opinion about a company’s long-term prospects if you see any stocks of interest here.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都强调了如果您在这里看到任何感兴趣的股票，请进行自己的研究以形成自己对公司长期前景的看法的重要性。</blockquote></p><p>Aside from CenturyLink, the stock listed above with the lowest forward P/E valuation is AT&amp;T Inc.T,with a dividend yield of 7.18% and P/E of 9.2, followed by Pfizer Inc.PFE,with a yield of 4.50% and forward P/E of 10.3.</p><p><blockquote>除了CenturyLink之外，上面列出的远期市盈率估值最低的股票是AT&amp;T Inc.T，股息收益率为7.18%，市盈率为9.2，其次是辉瑞Inc.PFE，收益率为4.50%，远期市盈率为10.3。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>22 additional dividend stocks that Warren Buffett might consider buying<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可能考虑购买的22只额外股息股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n22 additional dividend stocks that Warren Buffett might consider buying<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可能考虑购买的22只额外股息股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-18 14:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>His Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate recently started buying shares of Verizon and Chevron — both have attractive dividend yields well-supported by expected cash flow.</b>A vote of confidence by Warren Buffett in a particular stock doesn’t mean you should jump on the bandwagon, but the Berkshire Hathaway CEO’s long-term track record speaks for itself. The man knows how to spot a bargain.</p><p><blockquote><b>他的伯克希尔哈撒韦集团最近开始购买威瑞森和雪佛龙的股票——这两家公司的股息收益率都很有吸引力，并得到了预期现金流的良好支持。</b>沃伦·巴菲特对某只股票投下信任票并不意味着你应该追随这一潮流，但这位伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官的长期业绩记录不言而喻。这个人知道如何发现便宜货。</blockquote></p><p>Below is a screen of stocks inspired by Buffett’s two new picks that feature attractive dividend yields that are expected to be well-covered by free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>下面是受巴菲特两只新精选股票启发的股票屏幕，这些股票具有有吸引力的股息收益率，预计自由现金流将充分覆盖。</blockquote></p><p>Word of Buffett’s new investment positions can send shares higher as other investors’ ears perk up. This happened after Berkshire Hathaway Inc.BRKdisclosed late Feb. 16 that it had purchased shares of Verizon Communications Inc.VZ.and Chevron Corp.CVX— two stocks with attractive dividend yields, one of which is cheaply priced when compared to the weighted valuation of the S&amp;P 500 IndexSPX.</p><p><blockquote>随着其他投资者的耳朵竖起来，巴菲特新投资头寸的消息可能会推高股价。此前，Berkshire Hathaway Inc.BRK于2月16日晚披露已购买Verizon Communications Inc.VZ和Chevron Corp.CVX的股票，这两只股票具有有吸引力的股息收益率，其中一只与加权估值相比定价较低标普500指数SPX。</blockquote></p><p>Shares of Verizon were up 3% in early trading Feb. 17, while Chevron was up 3.5%. With dividends reinvested, Verizon had declined 7% for 2021 through Feb. 16, following a flat performance in 2020. Chevron was up 1.5% early Feb. 17 and had already risen 12% for 2021 following a 26% decline in 2020. Oil is on the upswing as investors look ahead to life after the pandemic. West Texas Intermediate crude oilCRUDE OILhad risen 68% from the close on Oct. 31 through Feb. 16, when it settled at $60.05 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>Verizon股价在2月17日早盘交易中上涨3%，雪佛龙股价上涨3.5%。随着股息再投资，Verizon继2020年业绩持平后，截至2月16日，2021年股价下跌了7%。雪佛龙2月17日早些时候上涨1.5%，继2020年下跌26%后，2021年已上涨12%。随着投资者展望大流行后的生活，油价正在上涨。西德克萨斯中质原油从10月31日收盘到2月16日收盘上涨了68%，最终收于每桶60.05美元。</blockquote></p><p>All of the following is based on closing prices Feb. 16 and consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>以下所有内容均基于2月16日的收盘价以及FactSet调查的分析师对未来12个月的一致预期。</blockquote></p><p>Verizon’s stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7, compared to a weighted aggregate forward P/E of 22.5 for the S&amp;P 500. The shares have a dividend yield of 4.64%.</p><p><blockquote>Verizon股票的预期市盈率为10.7，而标普500的加权总预期市盈率为22.5。该股的股息率为4.64%。</blockquote></p><p>One way to gauge a company’s ability to cover its dividend (and hopefully raise it) is to look at its free cash flow, which is its remaining cash flow after planned capital expenditures. This is money that can be used for any corporate purpose, including expansion, share repurchases or dividend increases. We can measure a company’s free cash flow yield by dividing trailing or estimated free cash flow by the current share price. Because of the disruptions to the U.S. economy in 2020, all the free cash flow yields that follow make use of consensus estimates for the next 12 reported months.</p><p><blockquote>衡量公司支付股息（并希望提高股息）能力的一种方法是查看其自由现金流，即计划资本支出后的剩余现金流。这笔钱可用于任何公司目的，包括扩张、股票回购或增加股息。我们可以通过将跟踪或估计的自由现金流除以当前股价来衡量公司的自由现金流收益率。由于2020年美国经济受到干扰，随后的所有自由现金流收益率均采用未来12个报告月的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p>Verizion’s forward free cash flow yield is 8.97%, showing “headroom” of 4.34% over the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>Verizion的远期自由现金流收益率为8.97%，比当前股息有4.34%的“净空”。</blockquote></p><p>Chevron’s stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24.8, which is higher than that of the S&amp;P 500. Then again, 2021 is expected to be a recovery year for oil and natural gas, and analysts’ earnings estimates may not have caught up with rising fuel commodity prices. Chevron’s dividend yield is 5.54% and its forward free cash flow yield is 7.99%, leaving “headroom” of 2.45%.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙股票的远期市盈率为24.8，高于标普500。话又说回来，预计2021年将是石油和天然气的复苏年，分析师的盈利预期可能没有赶上燃料大宗商品价格的上涨。雪佛龙的股息收益率为5.54%，远期自由现金流收益率为7.99%，还有2.45%的“净空”。</blockquote></p><p>None of this is to say that Buffett is overly fixated on stocks with high dividend yields. He isn’t. Among the publicly traded holdings the company disclosed Feb. 16, there are plenty of companies that pay no dividends, including Amazon.com Inc.AMZN,Biogen Inc.BIIB,Charter Communications Inc.CHTRand General Motors Co.GM,which suspended its quarterly dividend in April.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说巴菲特过度关注高股息收益率的股票。他不是。在该公司2月16日披露的公开交易持股中，有很多公司不支付股息，包括亚马逊公司（AMZN）、百健公司（Biogen Inc.BIIB）、Charter Communications Inc.CHTRand通用汽车公司（General Motors Co.GM），后者暂停了季度股息。四月。</blockquote></p><p><b>A Buffett dividend stock screen</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特股息股票屏幕</b></blockquote></p><p>Working from Buffett’s selections of Verizon and Chevron and excluding stocks Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t already hold, here are the 22 stocks among the S&amp;P 500 with dividend yields of at least 4.00%, for which free cash flow estimates for calendar 2021 are available, with headroom indicated. The list is sorted by dividend yield.</p><p><blockquote>根据巴菲特选择的Verizon和Chevron并排除Berkshire Hathaway尚未持有的股票，以下是标普500中股息收益率至少为4.00%的22只股票，可获得2021年的自由现金流估计，并有净空指示。该列表按股息收益率排序。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc941b397e252f4198fa8bb425fa2bbb\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Scroll the table to see all the data, including forward P/E ratios and total returns for 2021 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>滚动表格查看所有数据，包括2021年和2020年的远期市盈率和总回报。</blockquote></p><p>For real estate investment trusts, the industry standard for measuring dividend-paying ability is funds from operations, a non-GAAP figure that adds depreciation and amortization back to earnings and subtracts gains on the sale of property. So forward FFO estimates are used in the “estimated FCF yield” column on the table.</p><p><blockquote>对于房地产投资信托基金来说，衡量股息支付能力的行业标准是运营资金，这是一个非公认会计准则数字，将折旧和摊销加回收益中，并减去出售财产的收益。因此，表中的“估计FCF收益率”栏中使用了远期FFO估计值。</blockquote></p><p>The list excludes four stocks already held by Berkshire Hathaway — Verizon, Chevron and two more:</p><p><blockquote>该名单不包括伯克希尔哈撒韦公司已持有的四只股票——威瑞森、雪佛龙和另外两只股票：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><ul><li>AbbVie Inc.ABBVhas a dividend yield of 4.99%, with a forward free cash flow yield of 10.54% for headroom of 5.55%.</li><li>Kraft Heinz Co.KHChas a dividend yield of 4.52% and a forward free cash flow yield of 7.59% for headroom of 3.06%. The company cut its dividend by more than a third in February 2019.</li></ul>A high dividend yield might indicate investors are sour on the company’s business prospects or its ability to maintain the dividend over the long term, despite a high FCF yield. For example, the highest-yielding stock on the list is Lumen Technologies Inc.LUMN,which was CenturyLink before it was renamed in September. The dividend yield is 8.48%. CenturyLinkcut its quarterly dividend by 26% on the same day it authorized a $2 billion stock repurchase planin February 2013. The company’s quarterly dividend remained 54 cents a share until it wascut to the current 25 cents a sharein February 2019. For five years through Feb. 16, shares of Lumen/CenturyLink were down 34%, with dividends reinvested, while they were down 38% for 10 years.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>艾伯维公司ABBV的股息收益率为4.99%，远期自由现金流收益率为10.54%，净空为5.55%。</li><li>卡夫亨氏公司KHChas的股息收益率为4.52%，远期自由现金流收益率为7.59%，净空为3.06%。该公司于2019年2月将股息削减了三分之一以上。</li></ul>高股息收益率可能表明投资者对公司的业务前景或其长期维持股息的能力感到不满，尽管自由现金流收益率很高。例如，榜单上收益率最高的股票是Lumen Technologies Inc.LUMN，该公司在9月份更名之前是CenturyLink。股息率为8.48%。CenturyLink在2013年2月授权20亿美元股票回购计划的同一天，将季度股息削减了26%。该公司的季度股息仍为每股54美分，直到2019年2月削减至目前的每股25美分。截至2月16日的五年里，Lumen/CenturyLink的股价在股息再投资后下跌了34%，而10年来股价下跌了38%。</blockquote></p><p>Other companies on the list that have cut dividends over the past 10 years include Williams Cos.WMB,Kinder Morgan Inc.KMI,Vornado Realty TrustVNOand Simon Property Group Inc.SPG,which reduced its payout by 38% in June.</p><p><blockquote>名单上其他在过去10年中削减股息的公司包括Williams Cos.WMB、Kinder Morgan Inc.KMI、Vornado Realty TrustVNO和Simon Property Group Inc.SPG，后者在6月份将派息减少了38%。</blockquote></p><p>All of this emphasizes the importance of doing your own research to form your own opinion about a company’s long-term prospects if you see any stocks of interest here.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都强调了如果您在这里看到任何感兴趣的股票，请进行自己的研究以形成自己对公司长期前景的看法的重要性。</blockquote></p><p>Aside from CenturyLink, the stock listed above with the lowest forward P/E valuation is AT&amp;T Inc.T,with a dividend yield of 7.18% and P/E of 9.2, followed by Pfizer Inc.PFE,with a yield of 4.50% and forward P/E of 10.3.</p><p><blockquote>除了CenturyLink之外，上面列出的远期市盈率估值最低的股票是AT&amp;T Inc.T，股息收益率为7.18%，市盈率为9.2，其次是辉瑞Inc.PFE，收益率为4.50%，远期市盈率为10.3。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/22-additional-dividend-stocks-that-warren-buffett-might-consider-buying-11613579442?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMCR":"AMCOR PLC","SLG":"SL Green Realty Corp","VNO":"沃那多房信","LUMN":"Lumen Technologies","BXP":"BXP Inc","IRM":"爱恩铁山","FRT":"FRT信托","IPG":"埃培智","REG":"Regency Centers Corp","WMB":"威廉姆斯","PSX":"Phillips 66","SPG":"西蒙地产","MPC":"马拉松原油","T":"At&T","OKE":"欧尼克（万欧卡）","LYB":"利安德巴塞尔","DOW":"陶氏化学","IP":"国际纸业","PFE":"辉瑞","O":"Realty Income Corp","KMI":"金德尔摩根"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/22-additional-dividend-stocks-that-warren-buffett-might-consider-buying-11613579442?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1124565484","content_text":"His Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate recently started buying shares of Verizon and Chevron — both have attractive dividend yields well-supported by expected cash flow.A vote of confidence by Warren Buffett in a particular stock doesn’t mean you should jump on the bandwagon, but the Berkshire Hathaway CEO’s long-term track record speaks for itself. The man knows how to spot a bargain.Below is a screen of stocks inspired by Buffett’s two new picks that feature attractive dividend yields that are expected to be well-covered by free cash flow.Word of Buffett’s new investment positions can send shares higher as other investors’ ears perk up. This happened after Berkshire Hathaway Inc.BRKdisclosed late Feb. 16 that it had purchased shares of Verizon Communications Inc.VZ.and Chevron Corp.CVX— two stocks with attractive dividend yields, one of which is cheaply priced when compared to the weighted valuation of the S&P 500 IndexSPX.Shares of Verizon were up 3% in early trading Feb. 17, while Chevron was up 3.5%. With dividends reinvested, Verizon had declined 7% for 2021 through Feb. 16, following a flat performance in 2020. Chevron was up 1.5% early Feb. 17 and had already risen 12% for 2021 following a 26% decline in 2020. Oil is on the upswing as investors look ahead to life after the pandemic. West Texas Intermediate crude oilCRUDE OILhad risen 68% from the close on Oct. 31 through Feb. 16, when it settled at $60.05 a barrel.All of the following is based on closing prices Feb. 16 and consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the next 12 months.Verizon’s stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7, compared to a weighted aggregate forward P/E of 22.5 for the S&P 500. The shares have a dividend yield of 4.64%.One way to gauge a company’s ability to cover its dividend (and hopefully raise it) is to look at its free cash flow, which is its remaining cash flow after planned capital expenditures. This is money that can be used for any corporate purpose, including expansion, share repurchases or dividend increases. We can measure a company’s free cash flow yield by dividing trailing or estimated free cash flow by the current share price. Because of the disruptions to the U.S. economy in 2020, all the free cash flow yields that follow make use of consensus estimates for the next 12 reported months.Verizion’s forward free cash flow yield is 8.97%, showing “headroom” of 4.34% over the current dividend.Chevron’s stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24.8, which is higher than that of the S&P 500. Then again, 2021 is expected to be a recovery year for oil and natural gas, and analysts’ earnings estimates may not have caught up with rising fuel commodity prices. Chevron’s dividend yield is 5.54% and its forward free cash flow yield is 7.99%, leaving “headroom” of 2.45%.None of this is to say that Buffett is overly fixated on stocks with high dividend yields. He isn’t. Among the publicly traded holdings the company disclosed Feb. 16, there are plenty of companies that pay no dividends, including Amazon.com Inc.AMZN,Biogen Inc.BIIB,Charter Communications Inc.CHTRand General Motors Co.GM,which suspended its quarterly dividend in April.A Buffett dividend stock screenWorking from Buffett’s selections of Verizon and Chevron and excluding stocks Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t already hold, here are the 22 stocks among the S&P 500 with dividend yields of at least 4.00%, for which free cash flow estimates for calendar 2021 are available, with headroom indicated. The list is sorted by dividend yield.Scroll the table to see all the data, including forward P/E ratios and total returns for 2021 and 2020.For real estate investment trusts, the industry standard for measuring dividend-paying ability is funds from operations, a non-GAAP figure that adds depreciation and amortization back to earnings and subtracts gains on the sale of property. So forward FFO estimates are used in the “estimated FCF yield” column on the table.The list excludes four stocks already held by Berkshire Hathaway — Verizon, Chevron and two more:AbbVie Inc.ABBVhas a dividend yield of 4.99%, with a forward free cash flow yield of 10.54% for headroom of 5.55%.Kraft Heinz Co.KHChas a dividend yield of 4.52% and a forward free cash flow yield of 7.59% for headroom of 3.06%. The company cut its dividend by more than a third in February 2019.A high dividend yield might indicate investors are sour on the company’s business prospects or its ability to maintain the dividend over the long term, despite a high FCF yield. For example, the highest-yielding stock on the list is Lumen Technologies Inc.LUMN,which was CenturyLink before it was renamed in September. The dividend yield is 8.48%. CenturyLinkcut its quarterly dividend by 26% on the same day it authorized a $2 billion stock repurchase planin February 2013. The company’s quarterly dividend remained 54 cents a share until it wascut to the current 25 cents a sharein February 2019. For five years through Feb. 16, shares of Lumen/CenturyLink were down 34%, with dividends reinvested, while they were down 38% for 10 years.Other companies on the list that have cut dividends over the past 10 years include Williams Cos.WMB,Kinder Morgan Inc.KMI,Vornado Realty TrustVNOand Simon Property Group Inc.SPG,which reduced its payout by 38% in June.All of this emphasizes the importance of doing your own research to form your own opinion about a company’s long-term prospects if you see any stocks of interest here.Aside from CenturyLink, the stock listed above with the lowest forward P/E valuation is AT&T Inc.T,with a dividend yield of 7.18% and P/E of 9.2, followed by Pfizer Inc.PFE,with a yield of 4.50% and forward P/E of 10.3.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IRM":0.9,"PSX":0.9,"K":0.9,"AMCR":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"WMB":0.9,"O":0.9,"IPG":0.9,"SLG":0.9,"BXP":0.9,"LYB":0.9,"T":0.9,"SPG":0.9,"FRT":0.9,"VNO":0.9,"REG":0.9,"MPC":0.9,"KMI":0.9,"LUMN":0.9,"IP":0.9,"DOW":0.9,"OKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385631689,"gmtCreate":1613540201841,"gmtModify":1631890613319,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>yea boi","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>yea boi","text":"$Gran Tierra(GTE)$yea boi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385631689","repostId":"1146053060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146053060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613540252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146053060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 13:37","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146053060","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an econ","content":"<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，<i>超级循环</i>对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了25%，而标普500（仅）上涨了9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元走软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Oilprice</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 13:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，<i>超级循环</i>对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了25%，而标普500（仅）上涨了9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元走软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html\">Oilprice</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146053060","content_text":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.\nThe commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.\nYet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the termsupercycleis too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.\nCommodity Rally\nAs early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs said that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.\nGoldman expected the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.\nOver the past three months, the S&P GSCI has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&P 500.\nOver the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.\nSome Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…\nAccording to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.\n“We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.\nThe latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.\nJPMorgan now sees several potential factors underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.\nThe International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).\nThis year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.\n“The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.\nThen, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.\nIn the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.\nThe combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.\nPost-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.\nBut Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?\nAlthough crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.\nWhat we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.\nThis bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the Financial Post in an interview last week.\nCommodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382131678,"gmtCreate":1613380297694,"gmtModify":1631890613329,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>its time","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>its time","text":"$Gran Tierra(GTE)$its time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382131678","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388103903,"gmtCreate":1613033170602,"gmtModify":1703768554700,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>再来吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>再来吗","text":"$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$再来吗","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7524a796c5f3e057abce617c6604304a","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388103903","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384833473,"gmtCreate":1613636662292,"gmtModify":1634552851532,"author":{"id":"3574770700496796","authorId":"3574770700496796","name":"WadeW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515948ceeb9bc7c8764d485f743405e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574770700496796","authorIdStr":"3574770700496796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol comment for the sake of coin","listText":"Lol comment for the sake of coin","text":"Lol comment for the sake of coin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384833473","repostId":"1112683598","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}