Hjmnn的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Hjmnn

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IP属地：广东

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2021-11-10

$Society Pass Inc(SOPA)$待会3连砸

2021-02-12

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$下车了

2021-03-10

$游戏驿站(GME)$看看人家德国兄弟的觉悟💎✋🏻

2021-11-03

$安飞士(CAR)$这俩像不像

2021-03-11

$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$大家拿住，这只股不是单纯的价值股，这是wsb股，别听那些价值分析，没意义

2021-03-10

$游戏驿站(GME)$做空的兄弟自求多福吧

2021-03-19

$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$这公司不值百亿市值

2021-03-10

$游戏驿站(GME)$等到400多的时候肯定有一波小回落，因为之前人解套了，到时候大家拿住呀💎🙌🏻

2021-09-29

$老虎证券(TIGR)$空仓了，今晚会继续跌

2021-02-24

$小米集团-W(01810)$我都在吃💩了，你还往💩里下毒

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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14:56","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"股票投资世界的简单与复杂","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160331083","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"股票投资世界，是一个既简单又复杂的世界。\n说简单，是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的：长期从整体看，公司发展得好，股票也自然走得好；公司发展得差，股票也自然走得差。\n说复杂，是股票投资在投资标","content":"<p>股票投资世界，是一个既简单又复杂的世界。</p>\n<p>说简单，是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的：长期从整体看，公司发展得好，股票也自然走得好；公司发展得差，股票也自然走得差。</p>\n<p><b>说复杂，是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上，又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化，最终演化成：</b></p>\n<p>1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重，而对长期因素给予了太低的权重，毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了；</p>\n<p>2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人（杀跌），才存活了下来；那些逆向胆大的古猿人，则都早早死掉了，连后代都没有留下来。</p>\n<p>回到投资和我们的工作，抛开纷繁复杂的表象，实际只需要做两件事情：</p>\n<p><b>1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司；</b></p>\n<p><b>2、找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有。</b></p>\n<p><b>识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司</b></p>\n<p>这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。</p>\n<p>从实践中看，公司的增长，基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动，公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的，且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。</p>\n<p>借用牛顿第一定律的表述：任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态，直到长期施加较大的外力，迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化，等在公司长期业绩上体现出来，也是2～3年之后的事情了。</p>\n<p><b>找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有</b></p>\n<p>找机会买入，买入后始终持有，是一个相对简单的策略，不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。</p>\n<p>在中国股市的绝大部分时间，完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司，由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素，始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司，作为超一线品种，市场给的估值水平，一直低于众多其他公司。</p>\n<p>但这种情况，在2019～2020年，有了很大的变化：好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速，估值持续提高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f618c607ac3a72b463c86d3223c32e\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>变化的原因有很多，但主要有两个：</p>\n<p><b>1、外资参与不断加深。</b>外资携长期视野和长期资金，以国外几十年的发展经验，拿到中国股市，相当于开了几十年的天眼。</p>\n<p>事物内在的发展规律都是类似的，中国公司的发展道路，也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。</p>\n<p>从外资角度来看，以二线公司的市盈率，买入中国一线公司，坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会，是非常好的选择。</p>\n<p><b>2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。</b>好公司股价的上涨，吸引了更大的资金买入，市场在不断自我强化。</p>\n<p>现在这个时间点，在好公司估值较高的情况下，该如何投资，对任何一个市场参与者而言，都是一个较大的考验。</p>\n<p>可能的选择有以下几个：</p>\n<p><b>1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。</b>通过好公司业绩的持续增长，来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利，估值不变，至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。</p>\n<p>如果不顺利，碰到短期业绩下滑，在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下，会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司，年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长，135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中，在股价跌去2/3之后，现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长，PEG估值法视角下，今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。</p>\n<p><b>2、退而求其次，选择性价比更高的二线品种。</b></p>\n<p>2021年上半年，这类“性价比更高的二线品种”，的确走势很好，有多个都上涨了50%。</p>\n<p>“性价比更高的二线品种”，短期内是对组合有帮助的，长期由于路径依赖，会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。</p>\n<p>如果大家的持仓只有1年，我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”，但考虑到大家都是长期持有，这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的，立足长远才能获得长期收获。</p>\n<p><b>3、暂时轻仓等待。</b></p>\n<p>在好公司估值较高时，暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。</p>\n<p>毕竟茅指数在2019年1月～2021年6月短短2.5年时间，就上涨了3.3倍，大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅，一部分是估值修复，另一部分则是泡沫。</p>\n<p>在存在泡沫的情况下，如果上涨，不一定能上涨很多；一旦有回调，就会是非常大的回调。</p>\n<p>当然，任何判断都是有风险的，万一判断错了，在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累，相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司，这样将来组合的风险更低。</p>\n<p><b>总之，识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司，找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有，这两件事情，会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。</b></p>\n<p>最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略：用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。</p>\n<p>1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后，只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出，即便估值过高，也保留部分仓位，最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进，在时间维度上分散风险；</p>\n<p>2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票，在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合，该投资组合能够规避常见的风险，并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益，进而实现长期收益率目标；</p>\n<p>3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立，使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚，能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股票投资世界的简单与复杂\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-29 14:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>股票投资世界，是一个既简单又复杂的世界。</p>\n<p>说简单，是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的：长期从整体看，公司发展得好，股票也自然走得好；公司发展得差，股票也自然走得差。</p>\n<p><b>说复杂，是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上，又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化，最终演化成：</b></p>\n<p>1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重，而对长期因素给予了太低的权重，毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了；</p>\n<p>2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人（杀跌），才存活了下来；那些逆向胆大的古猿人，则都早早死掉了，连后代都没有留下来。</p>\n<p>回到投资和我们的工作，抛开纷繁复杂的表象，实际只需要做两件事情：</p>\n<p><b>1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司；</b></p>\n<p><b>2、找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有。</b></p>\n<p><b>识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司</b></p>\n<p>这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。</p>\n<p>从实践中看，公司的增长，基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动，公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的，且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。</p>\n<p>借用牛顿第一定律的表述：任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态，直到长期施加较大的外力，迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化，等在公司长期业绩上体现出来，也是2～3年之后的事情了。</p>\n<p><b>找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有</b></p>\n<p>找机会买入，买入后始终持有，是一个相对简单的策略，不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。</p>\n<p>在中国股市的绝大部分时间，完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司，由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素，始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司，作为超一线品种，市场给的估值水平，一直低于众多其他公司。</p>\n<p>但这种情况，在2019～2020年，有了很大的变化：好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速，估值持续提高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f618c607ac3a72b463c86d3223c32e\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>变化的原因有很多，但主要有两个：</p>\n<p><b>1、外资参与不断加深。</b>外资携长期视野和长期资金，以国外几十年的发展经验，拿到中国股市，相当于开了几十年的天眼。</p>\n<p>事物内在的发展规律都是类似的，中国公司的发展道路，也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。</p>\n<p>从外资角度来看，以二线公司的市盈率，买入中国一线公司，坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会，是非常好的选择。</p>\n<p><b>2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。</b>好公司股价的上涨，吸引了更大的资金买入，市场在不断自我强化。</p>\n<p>现在这个时间点，在好公司估值较高的情况下，该如何投资，对任何一个市场参与者而言，都是一个较大的考验。</p>\n<p>可能的选择有以下几个：</p>\n<p><b>1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。</b>通过好公司业绩的持续增长，来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利，估值不变，至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。</p>\n<p>如果不顺利，碰到短期业绩下滑，在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下，会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司，年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长，135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中，在股价跌去2/3之后，现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长，PEG估值法视角下，今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。</p>\n<p><b>2、退而求其次，选择性价比更高的二线品种。</b></p>\n<p>2021年上半年，这类“性价比更高的二线品种”，的确走势很好，有多个都上涨了50%。</p>\n<p>“性价比更高的二线品种”，短期内是对组合有帮助的，长期由于路径依赖，会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。</p>\n<p>如果大家的持仓只有1年，我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”，但考虑到大家都是长期持有，这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的，立足长远才能获得长期收获。</p>\n<p><b>3、暂时轻仓等待。</b></p>\n<p>在好公司估值较高时，暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。</p>\n<p>毕竟茅指数在2019年1月～2021年6月短短2.5年时间，就上涨了3.3倍，大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅，一部分是估值修复，另一部分则是泡沫。</p>\n<p>在存在泡沫的情况下，如果上涨，不一定能上涨很多；一旦有回调，就会是非常大的回调。</p>\n<p>当然，任何判断都是有风险的，万一判断错了，在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累，相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司，这样将来组合的风险更低。</p>\n<p><b>总之，识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司，找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有，这两件事情，会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。</b></p>\n<p>最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略：用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。</p>\n<p>1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后，只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出，即便估值过高，也保留部分仓位，最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进，在时间维度上分散风险；</p>\n<p>2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票，在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合，该投资组合能够规避常见的风险，并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益，进而实现长期收益率目标；</p>\n<p>3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立，使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚，能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5bec9a0d94ae609599ec4f96b9141c6","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160331083","content_text":"股票投资世界，是一个既简单又复杂的世界。\n说简单，是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的：长期从整体看，公司发展得好，股票也自然走得好；公司发展得差，股票也自然走得差。\n说复杂，是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上，又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化，最终演化成：\n1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重，而对长期因素给予了太低的权重，毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了；\n2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人（杀跌），才存活了下来；那些逆向胆大的古猿人，则都早早死掉了，连后代都没有留下来。\n回到投资和我们的工作，抛开纷繁复杂的表象，实际只需要做两件事情：\n1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司；\n2、找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有。\n识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司\n这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。\n从实践中看，公司的增长，基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动，公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的，且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。\n借用牛顿第一定律的表述：任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态，直到长期施加较大的外力，迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化，等在公司长期业绩上体现出来，也是2～3年之后的事情了。\n找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有\n找机会买入，买入后始终持有，是一个相对简单的策略，不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。\n在中国股市的绝大部分时间，完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司，由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素，始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司，作为超一线品种，市场给的估值水平，一直低于众多其他公司。\n但这种情况，在2019～2020年，有了很大的变化：好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速，估值持续提高。\n\n变化的原因有很多，但主要有两个：\n1、外资参与不断加深。外资携长期视野和长期资金，以国外几十年的发展经验，拿到中国股市，相当于开了几十年的天眼。\n事物内在的发展规律都是类似的，中国公司的发展道路，也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。\n从外资角度来看，以二线公司的市盈率，买入中国一线公司，坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会，是非常好的选择。\n2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。好公司股价的上涨，吸引了更大的资金买入，市场在不断自我强化。\n现在这个时间点，在好公司估值较高的情况下，该如何投资，对任何一个市场参与者而言，都是一个较大的考验。\n可能的选择有以下几个：\n1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。通过好公司业绩的持续增长，来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利，估值不变，至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。\n如果不顺利，碰到短期业绩下滑，在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下，会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司，年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长，135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中，在股价跌去2/3之后，现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长，PEG估值法视角下，今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。\n2、退而求其次，选择性价比更高的二线品种。\n2021年上半年，这类“性价比更高的二线品种”，的确走势很好，有多个都上涨了50%。\n“性价比更高的二线品种”，短期内是对组合有帮助的，长期由于路径依赖，会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。\n如果大家的持仓只有1年，我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”，但考虑到大家都是长期持有，这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的，立足长远才能获得长期收获。\n3、暂时轻仓等待。\n在好公司估值较高时，暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。\n毕竟茅指数在2019年1月～2021年6月短短2.5年时间，就上涨了3.3倍，大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅，一部分是估值修复，另一部分则是泡沫。\n在存在泡沫的情况下，如果上涨，不一定能上涨很多；一旦有回调，就会是非常大的回调。\n当然，任何判断都是有风险的，万一判断错了，在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累，相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司，这样将来组合的风险更低。\n总之，识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司，找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有，这两件事情，会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。\n最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略：用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。\n1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后，只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出，即便估值过高，也保留部分仓位，最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进，在时间维度上分散风险；\n2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票，在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合，该投资组合能够规避常见的风险，并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益，进而实现长期收益率目标；\n3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立，使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚，能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857672921,"gmtCreate":1635524527421,"gmtModify":1635524527421,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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plc(AVDL)$Fda宣布延期了[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824491359","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862523846,"gmtCreate":1632892570690,"gmtModify":1632892570690,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>空仓了，今晚会继续跌","listText":"<a 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