王大发啊的个人主页 - 老虎社区

王大发啊

王大发啊

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0勋章

2021-02-28

[呆住]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-28

[财迷]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-26

[呆住]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-22

[财迷]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-18

[微笑]

新能源车概念普跌，小鹏汽车跌超5%百度跌超4%

2021-02-17

[呆住]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-14

[龇牙] [龇牙]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-12

[鬼脸]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-12

[呆住] [呆住]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-11

[财迷] [财迷]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-09

一地鸡毛

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2021-02-06

快手最亮眼的仔

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2021-02-05

不带停的

荔枝大涨近60%，股价本周已翻三倍

2021-02-02

有点牛批啊

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-01

30几倍了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-01-28

早晚要暴跌

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2021-01-28

回调是肯定的，就是不知道回调前还要拉升多少[生病]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-01-25

泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。

美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心

2021-01-25

b站

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-01-25

买龙头就对了

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0ab7d3f5d89bb403311ca0a8e68f8e","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIU":"小牛电动"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183798436","content_text":"2月17日（周三），美股新能源汽车概念股持续下挫，截至发稿，小牛电动跌超7%，小鹏汽车跌超5%，百度跌超4%，蔚来跌3.73%，理想汽车跌近2%，特斯拉跌2.26%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385351433,"gmtCreate":1613516502722,"gmtModify":1634553371844,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385351433","repostId":"2111200030","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":386460972,"gmtCreate":1613257559496,"gmtModify":1634554099897,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"[龇牙] 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23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"荔枝大涨近60%，股价本周已翻三倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197633592","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，荔枝盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成","content":"<p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>荔枝大涨近60%，股价本周已翻三倍</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n荔枝大涨近60%，股价本周已翻三倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-04 23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0297cfccff0a8a073407a5bb08626","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197633592","content_text":"周四，荔枝盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315494888,"gmtCreate":1612269889344,"gmtModify":1703759592551,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有点牛批啊","listText":"有点牛批啊","text":"有点牛批啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315494888","repostId":"1179718017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":312699651,"gmtCreate":1612134541773,"gmtModify":1703757814262,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"30几倍了","listText":"30几倍了","text":"30几倍了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312699651","repostId":"2107225519","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311639386,"gmtCreate":1611788513545,"gmtModify":1703753845812,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"早晚要暴跌","listText":"早晚要暴跌","text":"早晚要暴跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311639386","repostId":"1161543959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311694799,"gmtCreate":1611788217711,"gmtModify":1703753842424,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"回调是肯定的，就是不知道回调前还要拉升多少[生病]&nbsp;","listText":"回调是肯定的，就是不知道回调前还要拉升多少[生病]&nbsp;","text":"回调是肯定的，就是不知道回调前还要拉升多少[生病]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311694799","repostId":"1170092741","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319616779,"gmtCreate":1611577187591,"gmtModify":1703751106805,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。","listText":"泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。","text":"泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319616779","repostId":"1136120648","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136120648","pubTimestamp":1611577045,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136120648?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-25 20:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136120648","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？\n这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。\n最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现","content":"<blockquote>\n 高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n</blockquote>\n<p>美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？</p>\n<p>这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。</p>\n<p><b>最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现了泡沫化的迹象，但是，投资者却不必过于担心。</b></p>\n<p>David Kostin等高盛策略师在上周五的一份报告中说，那些涨幅很大、估值很高的高成长股和高市盈率股“似乎存在泡沫，”而特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的如日中天正是美国股市“涨势过头而难以为继的迹象”之一。</p>\n<p>近期利润负增长公司股票成交量的增幅也处于历史极端水平——这也是股市存在泡沫的一个迹象。</p>\n<p>不过，高盛策略师同时指出，若是考虑当前美国国债收益率和公司信贷和现金水平，总体股市指数目前仍在历史平均估值水平之下：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 近来的市场流动性状况表明，投资者行为已经越来越像泡沫化的交易。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 但是，考虑到此类股票较小的市值占比，它们的过头对总体市场构成的系统性风险还算比较低。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>高盛承认美股存在泡沫</b></p>\n<p>Kostin团队承认，美股的确存在泡沫。</p>\n<p>之所以做出这样的判断，最明显的就是目前美股的估值的确处于历史高位：</p>\n<p>从绝对值的角度来看，毫无疑问，当前美股估值极高。</p>\n<p>不论是用市盈率还是市净率等指标，当前标普500指数的估值都处在历史前5%的百分位之中。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd50bfb48704b9b0bfc896adf85c767\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>高盛：有泡沫没错，但别担心</b></p>\n<p>但在高盛看来，如今美股泡沫并不值得人们过分担忧：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 如今的市场缺乏泡沫所特有的极端的投资者杠杆作用。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 很大程度上是由于财政刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入在2020年增长强劲，并且因为可能还会有进一步的刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入有望继续增长。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>此外，居民储蓄仍然很高。如此以来，最近大量流入美国股票的资金显然是由现金而非杠杆带来的。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Kostin认为，如果考虑到美国国债，公司信贷或现金的收益时，现在美国股票市场总指数的交易价格低于历史平均水平：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 事实上，正如经济学家罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）最近指出的那样，他经常引用的周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）表明：\n <b>如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 高盛的经济学家预测，十年期美国国债收益率在2021年底将仅上升至1.5％，在2023年中期仅超过2％。\n</blockquote>\n<p>高盛也进一步宽慰投资者，哪怕美国国债收益率上升，也不必太过担心：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 我们预计适度的高利率将被股票风险溢价的下降所抵消，这将使标准普尔500指数市盈率实际上保持不变，并使每股收益强劲增长，从而将市场推向我们的年底目标价4300点。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>经济复苏之时，买什么？</b></p>\n<p>在如今很多公司因为疫情而亏损的情况下，如何投资？</p>\n<p>高盛认为：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 就像过去的经济周期一样，今天许多亏钱的公司其实盈利能力很强，只不过目前是处在经济衰退期，这才无利可图。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 在经济复苏期间，投资者要做的是，加仓那些在经济低迷时期盈利和股价受重创的公司，尤其是在低利率时期还不见起色的公司。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>在友好的利率环境下，这些公司能够更容易地以低成本借到钱以增加现金流。一旦经济复苏，这些公司实际上的表现往往会超出预期。</b>\n</blockquote>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-25 20:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3618309><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？\n这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。\n最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现了泡沫化的迹象，但是，投资者却不必过于担心。\nDavid Kostin等高盛策略师在上周五的一份报告中说，那些涨幅很大、估值很高的高成长股和高市盈率股“似乎存在泡沫，”而特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3618309\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6f7be647d9aab0404003165041233e","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3618309","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1136120648","content_text":"高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？\n这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。\n最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现了泡沫化的迹象，但是，投资者却不必过于担心。\nDavid Kostin等高盛策略师在上周五的一份报告中说，那些涨幅很大、估值很高的高成长股和高市盈率股“似乎存在泡沫，”而特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的如日中天正是美国股市“涨势过头而难以为继的迹象”之一。\n近期利润负增长公司股票成交量的增幅也处于历史极端水平——这也是股市存在泡沫的一个迹象。\n不过，高盛策略师同时指出，若是考虑当前美国国债收益率和公司信贷和现金水平，总体股市指数目前仍在历史平均估值水平之下：\n\n 近来的市场流动性状况表明，投资者行为已经越来越像泡沫化的交易。\n\n\n 但是，考虑到此类股票较小的市值占比，它们的过头对总体市场构成的系统性风险还算比较低。\n\n\n如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n高盛承认美股存在泡沫\nKostin团队承认，美股的确存在泡沫。\n之所以做出这样的判断，最明显的就是目前美股的估值的确处于历史高位：\n从绝对值的角度来看，毫无疑问，当前美股估值极高。\n不论是用市盈率还是市净率等指标，当前标普500指数的估值都处在历史前5%的百分位之中。\n\n高盛：有泡沫没错，但别担心\n但在高盛看来，如今美股泡沫并不值得人们过分担忧：\n\n 如今的市场缺乏泡沫所特有的极端的投资者杠杆作用。\n\n\n 很大程度上是由于财政刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入在2020年增长强劲，并且因为可能还会有进一步的刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入有望继续增长。\n\n\n此外，居民储蓄仍然很高。如此以来，最近大量流入美国股票的资金显然是由现金而非杠杆带来的。\n\nKostin认为，如果考虑到美国国债，公司信贷或现金的收益时，现在美国股票市场总指数的交易价格低于历史平均水平：\n\n 事实上，正如经济学家罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）最近指出的那样，他经常引用的周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）表明：\n 如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n\n 高盛的经济学家预测，十年期美国国债收益率在2021年底将仅上升至1.5％，在2023年中期仅超过2％。\n\n高盛也进一步宽慰投资者，哪怕美国国债收益率上升，也不必太过担心：\n\n 我们预计适度的高利率将被股票风险溢价的下降所抵消，这将使标准普尔500指数市盈率实际上保持不变，并使每股收益强劲增长，从而将市场推向我们的年底目标价4300点。\n\n经济复苏之时，买什么？\n在如今很多公司因为疫情而亏损的情况下，如何投资？\n高盛认为：\n\n 就像过去的经济周期一样，今天许多亏钱的公司其实盈利能力很强，只不过目前是处在经济衰退期，这才无利可图。\n\n\n 在经济复苏期间，投资者要做的是，加仓那些在经济低迷时期盈利和股价受重创的公司，尤其是在低利率时期还不见起色的公司。\n\n\n在友好的利率环境下，这些公司能够更容易地以低成本借到钱以增加现金流。一旦经济复苏，这些公司实际上的表现往往会超出预期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319307430,"gmtCreate":1611511627020,"gmtModify":1703750646258,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"b站","listText":"b站","text":"b站","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319307430","repostId":"2105490697","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319307250,"gmtCreate":1611511582470,"gmtModify":1703750646086,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买龙头就对了","listText":"买龙头就对了","text":"买龙头就对了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319307250","repostId":"1126642649","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":366558255,"gmtCreate":1614519949677,"gmtModify":1703477986250,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366558255","repostId":"1153301219","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368316106,"gmtCreate":1614289126305,"gmtModify":1703475849348,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368316106","repostId":"1110328938","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384054442,"gmtCreate":1613597071586,"gmtModify":1634553027659,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384054442","repostId":"1183798436","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183798436","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1613575840,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183798436?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 23:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"新能源车概念普跌，小鹏汽车跌超5%百度跌超4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183798436","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月17日（周三），美股新能源汽车概念股持续下挫，截至发稿，小牛电动跌超7%，小鹏汽车跌超5%，百度跌超4%，蔚来跌3.73%，理想汽车跌近2%，特斯拉跌2.26%。","content":"<p>2月17日（周三），美股新能源汽车概念股持续下挫，截至发稿，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌3.73%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌近2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌2.26%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868e770b2f9876034bd0304c9bc570ba\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>新能源车概念普跌，小鹏汽车跌超5%百度跌超4%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-17 23:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2月17日（周三），美股新能源汽车概念股持续下挫，截至发稿，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌3.73%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌近2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌2.26%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868e770b2f9876034bd0304c9bc570ba\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0ab7d3f5d89bb403311ca0a8e68f8e","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIU":"小牛电动"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183798436","content_text":"2月17日（周三），美股新能源汽车概念股持续下挫，截至发稿，小牛电动跌超7%，小鹏汽车跌超5%，百度跌超4%，蔚来跌3.73%，理想汽车跌近2%，特斯拉跌2.26%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388485074,"gmtCreate":1613083139698,"gmtModify":1634554591184,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","text":"[鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388485074","repostId":"1116175927","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116175927","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1613055385,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116175927?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-11 22:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"次新股容联云涨超11%报34.5美元，IPO定价16美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116175927","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月11日美股盘初，容联云涨超11%报34.5美元。2月9日容联云正式在纽交所挂牌上市，发行价为16美元，共发行2000万份ADS，为中国SaaS企业赴美上市第一股。","content":"<p>2月11日美股盘初，容联云涨超11%报34.5美元。2月9日容联云正式在纽交所挂牌上市，发行价为16美元，共发行2000万份ADS，为中国SaaS企业赴美上市第一股。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9e0098e85d5c47c6c67cb6c2378f744\" tg-width=\"1086\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>次新股容联云涨超11%报34.5美元，IPO定价16美元</title>\n<style 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22:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2月11日美股盘初，容联云涨超11%报34.5美元。2月9日容联云正式在纽交所挂牌上市，发行价为16美元，共发行2000万份ADS，为中国SaaS企业赴美上市第一股。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9e0098e85d5c47c6c67cb6c2378f744\" tg-width=\"1086\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92b7c8d4c2035831f0200f514c2538ed","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116175927","content_text":"2月11日美股盘初，容联云涨超11%报34.5美元。2月9日容联云正式在纽交所挂牌上市，发行价为16美元，共发行2000万份ADS，为中国SaaS企业赴美上市第一股。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388494040,"gmtCreate":1613073595580,"gmtModify":1634554601718,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住] [呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388494040","repostId":"1101622765","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101622765","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1613056232,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101622765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-11 23:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Riot Blockchain涨超22%，股价创下3年来新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101622765","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月11日消息，Riot Blockchain涨超22%，股价创下3年来新高，此前公司表示将通过部署新矿工来提高比特币挖矿算力。今日比特币一度涨超7%，突破48000美元/枚关口。","content":"<p>2月11日消息，Riot Blockchain涨超22%，股价创下3年来新高，此前公司表示将通过部署新矿工来提高比特币挖矿算力。今日比特币一度涨超7%，突破48000美元/枚关口。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729031c1def965bc11e1b04c74a88fe5\" 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class=\"title\">\nRiot Blockchain涨超22%，股价创下3年来新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-11 23:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2月11日消息，Riot Blockchain涨超22%，股价创下3年来新高，此前公司表示将通过部署新矿工来提高比特币挖矿算力。今日比特币一度涨超7%，突破48000美元/枚关口。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729031c1def965bc11e1b04c74a88fe5\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ffd177b367a0ebb005b955b9ab6599","relate_stocks":{"RIOT":"Riot Platforms"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101622765","content_text":"2月11日消息，Riot Blockchain涨超22%，股价创下3年来新高，此前公司表示将通过部署新矿工来提高比特币挖矿算力。今日比特币一度涨超7%，突破48000美元/枚关口。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381786911,"gmtCreate":1612987885233,"gmtModify":1703768059941,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381786911","repostId":"1168524354","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380539623,"gmtCreate":1612547957562,"gmtModify":1703763591619,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"快手最亮眼的仔","listText":"快手最亮眼的仔","text":"快手最亮眼的仔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380539623","repostId":"1189244997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317418067,"gmtCreate":1612467668659,"gmtModify":1703762364600,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不带停的","listText":"不带停的","text":"不带停的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317418067","repostId":"1197633592","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197633592","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1612451567,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197633592?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-04 23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"荔枝大涨近60%，股价本周已翻三倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197633592","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，荔枝盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成","content":"<p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>荔枝大涨近60%，股价本周已翻三倍</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n荔枝大涨近60%，股价本周已翻三倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-04 23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0297cfccff0a8a073407a5bb08626","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197633592","content_text":"周四，荔枝盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319616779,"gmtCreate":1611577187591,"gmtModify":1703751106805,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。","listText":"泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。","text":"泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319616779","repostId":"1136120648","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136120648","pubTimestamp":1611577045,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136120648?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-25 20:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136120648","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？\n这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。\n最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现","content":"<blockquote>\n 高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n</blockquote>\n<p>美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？</p>\n<p>这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。</p>\n<p><b>最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现了泡沫化的迹象，但是，投资者却不必过于担心。</b></p>\n<p>David Kostin等高盛策略师在上周五的一份报告中说，那些涨幅很大、估值很高的高成长股和高市盈率股“似乎存在泡沫，”而特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的如日中天正是美国股市“涨势过头而难以为继的迹象”之一。</p>\n<p>近期利润负增长公司股票成交量的增幅也处于历史极端水平——这也是股市存在泡沫的一个迹象。</p>\n<p>不过，高盛策略师同时指出，若是考虑当前美国国债收益率和公司信贷和现金水平，总体股市指数目前仍在历史平均估值水平之下：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 近来的市场流动性状况表明，投资者行为已经越来越像泡沫化的交易。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 但是，考虑到此类股票较小的市值占比，它们的过头对总体市场构成的系统性风险还算比较低。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>高盛承认美股存在泡沫</b></p>\n<p>Kostin团队承认，美股的确存在泡沫。</p>\n<p>之所以做出这样的判断，最明显的就是目前美股的估值的确处于历史高位：</p>\n<p>从绝对值的角度来看，毫无疑问，当前美股估值极高。</p>\n<p>不论是用市盈率还是市净率等指标，当前标普500指数的估值都处在历史前5%的百分位之中。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd50bfb48704b9b0bfc896adf85c767\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>高盛：有泡沫没错，但别担心</b></p>\n<p>但在高盛看来，如今美股泡沫并不值得人们过分担忧：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 如今的市场缺乏泡沫所特有的极端的投资者杠杆作用。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 很大程度上是由于财政刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入在2020年增长强劲，并且因为可能还会有进一步的刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入有望继续增长。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>此外，居民储蓄仍然很高。如此以来，最近大量流入美国股票的资金显然是由现金而非杠杆带来的。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Kostin认为，如果考虑到美国国债，公司信贷或现金的收益时，现在美国股票市场总指数的交易价格低于历史平均水平：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 事实上，正如经济学家罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）最近指出的那样，他经常引用的周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）表明：\n <b>如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 高盛的经济学家预测，十年期美国国债收益率在2021年底将仅上升至1.5％，在2023年中期仅超过2％。\n</blockquote>\n<p>高盛也进一步宽慰投资者，哪怕美国国债收益率上升，也不必太过担心：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 我们预计适度的高利率将被股票风险溢价的下降所抵消，这将使标准普尔500指数市盈率实际上保持不变，并使每股收益强劲增长，从而将市场推向我们的年底目标价4300点。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>经济复苏之时，买什么？</b></p>\n<p>在如今很多公司因为疫情而亏损的情况下，如何投资？</p>\n<p>高盛认为：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 就像过去的经济周期一样，今天许多亏钱的公司其实盈利能力很强，只不过目前是处在经济衰退期，这才无利可图。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 在经济复苏期间，投资者要做的是，加仓那些在经济低迷时期盈利和股价受重创的公司，尤其是在低利率时期还不见起色的公司。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>在友好的利率环境下，这些公司能够更容易地以低成本借到钱以增加现金流。一旦经济复苏，这些公司实际上的表现往往会超出预期。</b>\n</blockquote>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-25 20:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3618309><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？\n这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。\n最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现了泡沫化的迹象，但是，投资者却不必过于担心。\nDavid Kostin等高盛策略师在上周五的一份报告中说，那些涨幅很大、估值很高的高成长股和高市盈率股“似乎存在泡沫，”而特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3618309\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6f7be647d9aab0404003165041233e","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3618309","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1136120648","content_text":"高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？\n这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。\n最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现了泡沫化的迹象，但是，投资者却不必过于担心。\nDavid Kostin等高盛策略师在上周五的一份报告中说，那些涨幅很大、估值很高的高成长股和高市盈率股“似乎存在泡沫，”而特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的如日中天正是美国股市“涨势过头而难以为继的迹象”之一。\n近期利润负增长公司股票成交量的增幅也处于历史极端水平——这也是股市存在泡沫的一个迹象。\n不过，高盛策略师同时指出，若是考虑当前美国国债收益率和公司信贷和现金水平，总体股市指数目前仍在历史平均估值水平之下：\n\n 近来的市场流动性状况表明，投资者行为已经越来越像泡沫化的交易。\n\n\n 但是，考虑到此类股票较小的市值占比，它们的过头对总体市场构成的系统性风险还算比较低。\n\n\n如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n高盛承认美股存在泡沫\nKostin团队承认，美股的确存在泡沫。\n之所以做出这样的判断，最明显的就是目前美股的估值的确处于历史高位：\n从绝对值的角度来看，毫无疑问，当前美股估值极高。\n不论是用市盈率还是市净率等指标，当前标普500指数的估值都处在历史前5%的百分位之中。\n\n高盛：有泡沫没错，但别担心\n但在高盛看来，如今美股泡沫并不值得人们过分担忧：\n\n 如今的市场缺乏泡沫所特有的极端的投资者杠杆作用。\n\n\n 很大程度上是由于财政刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入在2020年增长强劲，并且因为可能还会有进一步的刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入有望继续增长。\n\n\n此外，居民储蓄仍然很高。如此以来，最近大量流入美国股票的资金显然是由现金而非杠杆带来的。\n\nKostin认为，如果考虑到美国国债，公司信贷或现金的收益时，现在美国股票市场总指数的交易价格低于历史平均水平：\n\n 事实上，正如经济学家罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）最近指出的那样，他经常引用的周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）表明：\n 如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n\n 高盛的经济学家预测，十年期美国国债收益率在2021年底将仅上升至1.5％，在2023年中期仅超过2％。\n\n高盛也进一步宽慰投资者，哪怕美国国债收益率上升，也不必太过担心：\n\n 我们预计适度的高利率将被股票风险溢价的下降所抵消，这将使标准普尔500指数市盈率实际上保持不变，并使每股收益强劲增长，从而将市场推向我们的年底目标价4300点。\n\n经济复苏之时，买什么？\n在如今很多公司因为疫情而亏损的情况下，如何投资？\n高盛认为：\n\n 就像过去的经济周期一样，今天许多亏钱的公司其实盈利能力很强，只不过目前是处在经济衰退期，这才无利可图。\n\n\n 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10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报“亮眼”也没用？华尔街警告2月市场全面回调","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170092741","media":"Wind万得","summary":"隔夜微软发布财报显示，云计算服务在疫情疫情期间强劲增长。本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，但华尔街却开始看向二月市场回调风险。\n大型科技公司有望收获不俗业绩\n在2020年多数时间领涨市场以后，科技股在去年","content":"<p>隔夜<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>发布财报显示，云计算服务在疫情疫情期间强劲增长。本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，但华尔街却开始看向二月市场回调风险。</p>\n<p><b>大型科技公司有望收获不俗业绩</b></p>\n<p>在2020年多数时间领涨市场以后，科技股在去年年底涨势停顿，而周期股则受经济复苏预期支撑，获得强劲涨幅。</p>\n<p>不过随着财报季的到来，美股板块轮动又有“回头”迹象。Horizon Investment Services首席执行官Chuck Carlson表示，标普500成分股企业将有约四分之一再本周公布财报，可能有助于决定增长股重新崛起的势头能否持续下去，对近期价值股与周期股的涨势构成潜在威胁。“这可能会成为财报季的主轴：过去八、九周美股已经发生了板块轮动，而企业获利对这波轮动的可持续性将具有什么样的意义。”</p>\n<p>而本周公布财报的大型科技企业也确实获得不俗成绩。微软公司周二报告说，其Azure云计算服务增长了50%，因为疫情使该软件制造商在家庭工作和学习方面的投资受益。该公司的股票在盘后交易中上涨了5%，在2020年上涨了约41%。随着疫情加大了在家办公需求，企业纷纷加大了对云计算的投入，这无疑提振了微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>及谷歌的云计算业务。</p>\n<p>在与投资者举行的电话会议上，微软高管表示，他们预计该公司“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>云”业务第三季度收入将达到148.3亿美元，而华尔街的预期为141.2亿美元。微软表示，其“智能云”部门的收入增长了23%，达到146亿美元，其中Azure增长了50%。根据Visible Alpha的共识数据，分析师此前预计Azure的增长将达到41.4%，上一季度Azure增长了48%。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，1月27日本周三，智能手机巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司预计将发布其第一季度财报，分析师预期该公司营收将超过1000亿美元，主要受益于其新iPhone 12系列的强劲早期表现，以及受远程办公和网络授课提振的Macs和iPad需求。</p>\n<p>在疫情期间，苹果公司的Mac和iPad销量强劲，随着在家办公及网络授课的兴起，这种势头预计有望持续到第一财季。苹果于去年年底推出了新的iPad，并推出了首批采用自己定制芯片的计算机。</p>\n<p>分析师预计苹果服务类别的业绩也将达到创纪录水平，尽管其中某些领域可能也不会保持强劲增长。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师凯蒂·胡伯蒂（Katy Huberty）表示，鉴于发生疫情危机，苹果在将销售转移到其在线商店方面做得很好，但是它“过分依赖店内客户购买”来推动其AppleCare保险产品的销售。</p>\n<p><b>华尔街警告市场二月抛售风险</b></p>\n<p>尽管财报季提振了市场情绪，但华尔街已开始担忧二月市场回调风险。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>的技术分析师斯蒂芬·苏特迈尔（Stephen Suttmeier）周一发表了题为“进入2月的修正风险增加”的报告，指出随着1月即将结束，2月的季节性风险可能表明，现在该“采取获利了结或其他防御措施，因为几个市场指数都达到了2020年大选突破后所预期的上升点。”</p>\n<p>Suttmeier表示，标准普尔500指数从美国总统大选之前构筑的看涨三角形探测了向上目标3,830-3,885，罗素2000指数已达到其第一个上升目标，纳斯达克100则测试了13,500-13,630目标。</p>\n<p>Suttmeier将标普500指数的每月季节性数据追溯到1928年，并指出2月份对于投资者来说是一个危险的月份，尤其是考虑到美联储创造的史诗泡沫中所有乐观情绪和投机行为。其他指标方面， 5天和25天CBOE总看跌/看涨比率都处于逆势看跌超买水平。这位分析师说：“我们认为这提示了一种风险，可能会中断下个月的股市反弹。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8cd2540b43a5402362f7b402ec29d5\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除了美国银行之外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>首席经济学家几天前在一篇题为“ What Gould Go Error Wrong ”的文章中概述了投资者过度乐观的想法，认为尽管股市在2021年反弹，但其他下行风险依然存在：包括不确定消费者如何应对挥之不去的风险，新病毒突变如何影响病毒传播以及疫苗效力的不确定性。</p>\n<p>由于下行风险越来越大，RIA首席投资策略师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）本周一 表示，已开始出售股票并增加现金持有，以应对未来市场可能出现的回调。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报“亮眼”也没用？华尔街警告2月市场全面回调\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-01-27 10:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>隔夜<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>发布财报显示，云计算服务在疫情疫情期间强劲增长。本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，但华尔街却开始看向二月市场回调风险。</p>\n<p><b>大型科技公司有望收获不俗业绩</b></p>\n<p>在2020年多数时间领涨市场以后，科技股在去年年底涨势停顿，而周期股则受经济复苏预期支撑，获得强劲涨幅。</p>\n<p>不过随着财报季的到来，美股板块轮动又有“回头”迹象。Horizon Investment Services首席执行官Chuck Carlson表示，标普500成分股企业将有约四分之一再本周公布财报，可能有助于决定增长股重新崛起的势头能否持续下去，对近期价值股与周期股的涨势构成潜在威胁。“这可能会成为财报季的主轴：过去八、九周美股已经发生了板块轮动，而企业获利对这波轮动的可持续性将具有什么样的意义。”</p>\n<p>而本周公布财报的大型科技企业也确实获得不俗成绩。微软公司周二报告说，其Azure云计算服务增长了50%，因为疫情使该软件制造商在家庭工作和学习方面的投资受益。该公司的股票在盘后交易中上涨了5%，在2020年上涨了约41%。随着疫情加大了在家办公需求，企业纷纷加大了对云计算的投入，这无疑提振了微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>及谷歌的云计算业务。</p>\n<p>在与投资者举行的电话会议上，微软高管表示，他们预计该公司“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>云”业务第三季度收入将达到148.3亿美元，而华尔街的预期为141.2亿美元。微软表示，其“智能云”部门的收入增长了23%，达到146亿美元，其中Azure增长了50%。根据Visible Alpha的共识数据，分析师此前预计Azure的增长将达到41.4%，上一季度Azure增长了48%。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，1月27日本周三，智能手机巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司预计将发布其第一季度财报，分析师预期该公司营收将超过1000亿美元，主要受益于其新iPhone 12系列的强劲早期表现，以及受远程办公和网络授课提振的Macs和iPad需求。</p>\n<p>在疫情期间，苹果公司的Mac和iPad销量强劲，随着在家办公及网络授课的兴起，这种势头预计有望持续到第一财季。苹果于去年年底推出了新的iPad，并推出了首批采用自己定制芯片的计算机。</p>\n<p>分析师预计苹果服务类别的业绩也将达到创纪录水平，尽管其中某些领域可能也不会保持强劲增长。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师凯蒂·胡伯蒂（Katy Huberty）表示，鉴于发生疫情危机，苹果在将销售转移到其在线商店方面做得很好，但是它“过分依赖店内客户购买”来推动其AppleCare保险产品的销售。</p>\n<p><b>华尔街警告市场二月抛售风险</b></p>\n<p>尽管财报季提振了市场情绪，但华尔街已开始担忧二月市场回调风险。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>的技术分析师斯蒂芬·苏特迈尔（Stephen Suttmeier）周一发表了题为“进入2月的修正风险增加”的报告，指出随着1月即将结束，2月的季节性风险可能表明，现在该“采取获利了结或其他防御措施，因为几个市场指数都达到了2020年大选突破后所预期的上升点。”</p>\n<p>Suttmeier表示，标准普尔500指数从美国总统大选之前构筑的看涨三角形探测了向上目标3,830-3,885，罗素2000指数已达到其第一个上升目标，纳斯达克100则测试了13,500-13,630目标。</p>\n<p>Suttmeier将标普500指数的每月季节性数据追溯到1928年，并指出2月份对于投资者来说是一个危险的月份，尤其是考虑到美联储创造的史诗泡沫中所有乐观情绪和投机行为。其他指标方面， 5天和25天CBOE总看跌/看涨比率都处于逆势看跌超买水平。这位分析师说：“我们认为这提示了一种风险，可能会中断下个月的股市反弹。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8cd2540b43a5402362f7b402ec29d5\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除了美国银行之外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>首席经济学家几天前在一篇题为“ What Gould Go Error Wrong ”的文章中概述了投资者过度乐观的想法，认为尽管股市在2021年反弹，但其他下行风险依然存在：包括不确定消费者如何应对挥之不去的风险，新病毒突变如何影响病毒传播以及疫苗效力的不确定性。</p>\n<p>由于下行风险越来越大，RIA首席投资策略师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）本周一 表示，已开始出售股票并增加现金持有，以应对未来市场可能出现的回调。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","MSFT":"微软","AMD":"美国超微公司",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170092741","content_text":"隔夜微软发布财报显示，云计算服务在疫情疫情期间强劲增长。本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，但华尔街却开始看向二月市场回调风险。\n大型科技公司有望收获不俗业绩\n在2020年多数时间领涨市场以后，科技股在去年年底涨势停顿，而周期股则受经济复苏预期支撑，获得强劲涨幅。\n不过随着财报季的到来，美股板块轮动又有“回头”迹象。Horizon Investment Services首席执行官Chuck Carlson表示，标普500成分股企业将有约四分之一再本周公布财报，可能有助于决定增长股重新崛起的势头能否持续下去，对近期价值股与周期股的涨势构成潜在威胁。“这可能会成为财报季的主轴：过去八、九周美股已经发生了板块轮动，而企业获利对这波轮动的可持续性将具有什么样的意义。”\n而本周公布财报的大型科技企业也确实获得不俗成绩。微软公司周二报告说，其Azure云计算服务增长了50%，因为疫情使该软件制造商在家庭工作和学习方面的投资受益。该公司的股票在盘后交易中上涨了5%，在2020年上涨了约41%。随着疫情加大了在家办公需求，企业纷纷加大了对云计算的投入，这无疑提振了微软、亚马逊及谷歌的云计算业务。\n在与投资者举行的电话会议上，微软高管表示，他们预计该公司“智能云”业务第三季度收入将达到148.3亿美元，而华尔街的预期为141.2亿美元。微软表示，其“智能云”部门的收入增长了23%，达到146亿美元，其中Azure增长了50%。根据Visible Alpha的共识数据，分析师此前预计Azure的增长将达到41.4%，上一季度Azure增长了48%。\n值得注意的是，1月27日本周三，智能手机巨头苹果公司预计将发布其第一季度财报，分析师预期该公司营收将超过1000亿美元，主要受益于其新iPhone 12系列的强劲早期表现，以及受远程办公和网络授课提振的Macs和iPad需求。\n在疫情期间，苹果公司的Mac和iPad销量强劲，随着在家办公及网络授课的兴起，这种势头预计有望持续到第一财季。苹果于去年年底推出了新的iPad，并推出了首批采用自己定制芯片的计算机。\n分析师预计苹果服务类别的业绩也将达到创纪录水平，尽管其中某些领域可能也不会保持强劲增长。摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·胡伯蒂（Katy Huberty）表示，鉴于发生疫情危机，苹果在将销售转移到其在线商店方面做得很好，但是它“过分依赖店内客户购买”来推动其AppleCare保险产品的销售。\n华尔街警告市场二月抛售风险\n尽管财报季提振了市场情绪，但华尔街已开始担忧二月市场回调风险。美国银行的技术分析师斯蒂芬·苏特迈尔（Stephen Suttmeier）周一发表了题为“进入2月的修正风险增加”的报告，指出随着1月即将结束，2月的季节性风险可能表明，现在该“采取获利了结或其他防御措施，因为几个市场指数都达到了2020年大选突破后所预期的上升点。”\nSuttmeier表示，标准普尔500指数从美国总统大选之前构筑的看涨三角形探测了向上目标3,830-3,885，罗素2000指数已达到其第一个上升目标，纳斯达克100则测试了13,500-13,630目标。\nSuttmeier将标普500指数的每月季节性数据追溯到1928年，并指出2月份对于投资者来说是一个危险的月份，尤其是考虑到美联储创造的史诗泡沫中所有乐观情绪和投机行为。其他指标方面， 5天和25天CBOE总看跌/看涨比率都处于逆势看跌超买水平。这位分析师说：“我们认为这提示了一种风险，可能会中断下个月的股市反弹。”\n\n除了美国银行之外，高盛首席经济学家几天前在一篇题为“ What Gould Go Error Wrong ”的文章中概述了投资者过度乐观的想法，认为尽管股市在2021年反弹，但其他下行风险依然存在：包括不确定消费者如何应对挥之不去的风险，新病毒突变如何影响病毒传播以及疫苗效力的不确定性。\n由于下行风险越来越大，RIA首席投资策略师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）本周一 表示，已开始出售股票并增加现金持有，以应对未来市场可能出现的回调。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319307250,"gmtCreate":1611511582470,"gmtModify":1703750646086,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买龙头就对了","listText":"买龙头就对了","text":"买龙头就对了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319307250","repostId":"1126642649","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126642649","pubTimestamp":1611459627,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126642649?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-24 11:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股：龙头跑赢40年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126642649","media":"尧望后势","summary":"前言：近期A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，“机构抱团”、“龙头溢价”再度引发热议，不少投资者开始担忧“抱团瓦解”、“抱团崩盘”。我们在两年前提出A股正处于机构化与国际化的交汇期，A股估值体系将迎来“拨乱","content":"<p><b>前言：</b>近期A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，“机构抱团”、“龙头溢价”再度引发热议，不少投资者开始担忧“抱团瓦解”、“抱团崩盘”。我们在两年前提出A股正处于机构化与国际化的交汇期，A股估值体系将迎来“拨乱反正”，优质龙头将从折价走向溢价，这一预判已经兑现。<b>那么未来龙头是否能够继续跑赢？龙头溢价是否能够持续？机构化时代市场分化将如何演绎？</b>40年的美股经验将告诉我们答案。</p>\n<p><b>报告正文</b></p>\n<p><b>一、美股：龙头跑赢40年</b></p>\n<p><b>1、龙头持续跑赢40年</b></p>\n<p><b>美股龙头跑赢40年，龙头表现长期优于非龙头。</b>以流通市值前20%代表龙头，后80%代表非龙头，美股在大小市值个股之间存在着长期且显著的涨跌分化现象。自1970年以来，流通市值前20%的个股在绝大多数时间里表现更优，1980年以来龙头个股更是连续40年跑赢非龙头，大市值龙头涨幅更为显著。进一步以2020年为例，市值大于5000亿的个股全年涨跌幅中位数录得37.81%，而市值小于50亿的个股全年涨跌幅则收跌1.17%，龙头大幅跑赢非龙头。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3258e292203d1e7b04fef6b79b53718\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"652\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d5c117a00d0a57e51f90c7d0eb4eb20\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"653\"></p>\n<p><b>行业角度亦是如此，各行业龙头的市场表现也普遍优于非龙头。</b>以各行业总市值前20名作为龙头，2020年在全部11个GICS一级行业中，龙头个股的涨跌幅均高于非龙头个股，电信服务、可选消费、材料、信息技术等行业龙头优势较为明显，涨跌幅中位数差分别达38.04%、21.22%、17.43%和16.61%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f10d91f7b226ac517d3286010eed670\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"536\"></p>\n<p><b>2、龙头“垄断”流动性</b></p>\n<p><b>资金向龙头集中，小市值个股丧失流动性。</b>1970年以来，流通市值后80%成交占比震荡回落，从此前30%以上下滑至10%以下。从1980年以来，20%的个股垄断式的占据了全市场近90%的成交规模，小市值劣质个股逐渐遭到市场抛弃。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eecf60786c8303b35f31aa6ac351e48a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\"></p>\n<p><b>3、龙头估值长期溢价</b></p>\n<p><b>美股龙头从折价走向溢价，长期维持估值溢价，好东西越来越贵。</b>1970年以来，美股龙头逐渐从折价走向溢价。自80年代以来，美股龙头长期享受估值溢价，流通市值前20%的龙头PE估值持续高于流通市值后80%的非龙头。且1990年以来，龙头估值溢价逐步扩大，尤其是2009年至今的美股十年长牛中，美股龙头越来越贵。进一步从2020年美股PE水平看，以市值分组的个股PE中位数依次降低，市值大于5000亿的个股PE中位数达38.80，而市值小于50亿的个股PE仅为18.19，大市值个股溢价显著。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f839b407f9bfc819682d088e844b5df\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"665\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a270bdc45e84fc1e536631d4d0f424a\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"662\"></p>\n<p><b>行业角度亦是如此，优势行业更贵，行业龙头更贵。</b>从行业PB-ROE来看，信息科技、可选消费、必需消费等行业凭借较高的盈利能力享受估值溢价，公用事业、金融等传统周期行业盈利更差、估值较低。各行业龙头个股估值溢价，以各行业总市值前20名作为行业龙头，龙头的估值水平均高于整体，其中以信息技术、医疗保健、可选消费等行业尤为明显。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb762117a72c189c1d258786ea07338\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"709\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b6189544c0c6b9f409cf10b42349ac\" tg-width=\"867\" tg-height=\"709\"></p>\n<p><b>4、龙头强者恒强</b></p>\n<p><b>美国经济从增量到存量，龙头与非龙头盈利分化，龙头股盈利长期强于非龙头，成为美股大分化时代的基石</b>。经历过战后经济的蓬勃发展，从1970年后美国开始转型，并在1980年后成功完成转型。伴随经济从增量转向存量，马太效应下龙头与非龙头盈利逐渐分化。1980年之后，龙头ROE长期维持在8%上下且波动较小，但非龙头ROE从10%以上逐步下滑至4%中枢，且盈利波动更大。龙头更强且更加稳定的盈利能力，成为股价分化、流动性分化、估值分化的重要原因。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9728291bbb41869fe6c6381690f884d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"625\"></p>\n<p><b>二、美股龙头跑赢背后：机构化的必然趋势</b></p>\n<p><b>美股龙头跑赢40年，龙头与非龙头在流动性、估值、盈利等方面呈现出巨大的分化，其背后的原因离不开美股机构化时代的开启。</b></p>\n<p><b>美股机构化从1950年之后开启，最迅速“去散户化”过程发生在1950-1990、1990-2007两个阶段，以养老金和共同基金为代表的机构投资者逐渐占据主导，形成基金-养老金-外资-散户四分股市的投资者结构。</b></p>\n<p>•1950年至1990年，70年代起美国养老金入市成为颠覆“散户化”结构的第一股力量。战后美国养老金体系逐渐完善，70年代开始养老体制改革，特别是1981年美国《联邦税法》中401(K)、403(B)及457条款推出，DB计划与DC计划规模快速增长。1990年散户、养老金、外资、基金、保险占比为48.2%、24.3%、6.9%、7.5%、4.6%，较1950年散户几近腰斩，养老金成为股市的第二大投资者。</p>\n<p>•1990年前后，随着各类复杂的投资工具和衍生产品大量出现，基金接棒养老金成为“去散户化”的第二股资金，进一步压缩散户占比。2007年占比从大到小为散户、基金、养老金、外资、保险，分别是38.0%、27.6%、15.3%、10.8%、2.7%，较1990年散户占比继续下降，共同基金崛起成为第二大投资者，与养老金共同成为美股机构投资者的两大支柱。自2007年至今，美股投资者结构基本保持稳定。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f57077d13dbde6a5ce13de5772ec84c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\"></p>\n<p><b>伴随美股机构化的开启，机构投资者步入觉醒时代，资金拥抱优质龙头，美股迎来龙头与非龙头长达40余年的大分化时代。</b>自70年代以来，随着美国养老金规模进一步壮大、公募基金迅速发展，机构投资者崛起，美股开启快速去散户化时代。1970年以来，随着散户占比的下降，小市值个股的成交占比萎缩，机构投资者“以大为美”的选股偏好，加速了市场资金向大市值龙头集聚的过程。以贝莱德为例，2020Q3持仓前五即是美国最大龙头FAAMG，仅苹果公司持仓即达到6%。机构化成为美股龙头持续跑赢的极为重要的原因。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9295dd5fbdf50d1bdce3d5256b85e487\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"582\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcd33775d8c4d28f49449818f7aab4c2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"582\"></p>\n<p><b>三、A股机构化加速，龙头跑赢成为新常态</b></p>\n<p><b>近几年A股机构化加速，以公募基金、外资、保险为代表的机构资金成为市场主要增量资金来源。</b></p>\n<p><b>一是2017-2019年，外资成为A股市场最重要的增量资金。</b>随着陆港通开通和MSCI落地，境外资金入场明显提速。近几年北上年度净流入在2000-3500亿，截至2020年9月，外资占流通市值比例超过4.73%，成为A股市场第二大机构投资者。</p>\n<p><b>二是2019-2020年，公募接力外资成为A股市场上最重要的增量资金。</b>2020年偏股基金（股票型+混合型）共发行超过2万亿、净流入超过1.6万亿，创下历史最高，超过2016-2019年四年总和。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5fa46614d64aa7a17bdcf8c63f6dbd\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"717\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7615d1d5365ab87bfcb996451fcef4c\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"709\"></p>\n<p><b>机构化加速，龙头大幅跑赢。</b>外资占比与陆股通重仓股相对收益高度相关，外资从2017年大幅流入，成为A股市场最重要增量资金，外资重仓龙头持续跑赢。2019年以来基金崛起，成为市场主导资金，基金话语权快速提升，带来基金重仓股大幅跑赢大盘。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c54a7f5d3bc3b2ba418e2b81105199cd\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"710\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646ef9287ec64d6b6548c9cc0e8a7d64\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"714\"></p>\n<p><b>机构化推动A股龙头从折价走向溢价。</b>2017年开始，以龙头为代表的A股核心资产不断突破估值上限创新高，这背后其实是机构化带来的A股估值体系的“拨乱反正”，龙头从折价走向溢价。两年前A股多数行业龙头折价明显，这与成熟市场各行业龙头溢价格局大相径庭。随着机构对龙头定价权提升，当前A股多行业龙头获得估值溢价，估值迎来修复。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4eabbea11f2a772e3bc18ebc98964e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"623\"></p>\n<p><b>我们认为当前A股正处于机构化加速阶段，A股龙头价值重估仍将继续，未来龙头溢价也将成为新常态，好东西越来越贵，越好的东西越贵。</b>一是我国居民加配权益资产是大势所趋，而公募基金、银行理财以及养老金等间接途径则将成为我国居民加配权益资产的主要途径。二是A股外资占比仍偏低，预计外资未来也将持续做多A股。内外资合力之下，A股市场机构化程度将显著提升，未来好东西越来越贵，越好的东西越贵。</p>\n<p><b>四、总结</b></p>\n<p><b>1、美股龙头持续跑赢40年。各行业龙头跑赢非龙头。</b></p>\n<p><b>2、美股龙头“垄断”流动性。20%的个股垄断90%的成交规模，小市值劣质个股逐渐被市场抛弃。</b></p>\n<p><b>3、美股龙头从折价走向溢价，长期享受估值溢价，龙头越来越贵。各行业龙头比非龙头更贵。</b></p>\n<p><b>4、美股龙头强者恒强。伴随美国经济从增量到存量，龙头与非龙头盈利分化，龙头股盈利长期强于非龙头。</b></p>\n<p><b>5、美股龙头跑赢是机构化时代的必然趋势。美股经历从散户化到机构化的变革，70年代和90年代养老金和共同基金的相继崛起，推动美股步入机构化时代，拉开美股龙头与非龙头大分化时代的序幕。</b></p>\n<p><b>6、过去几年A股机构化加速，龙头大幅跑赢，龙头逐渐从折价走向溢价。</b></p>\n<p><b>7、借鉴美股，机构化时代龙头跑赢与溢价将成为常态，未来A股龙头价值重估仍将继续，好东西越来越贵，越好的东西越贵</b></p>\n<p><b>风险提示</b></p>\n<p>1、历史数据统计与实际情况可能存在误差；2、对比研究方法存在局限性，结论或存在一定偏差。</p>","source":"ywhs","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股：龙头跑赢40年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-24 11:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/49ddR8wHxDhQrVHsBgGzVQ><strong>尧望后势</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>前言：近期A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，“机构抱团”、“龙头溢价”再度引发热议，不少投资者开始担忧“抱团瓦解”、“抱团崩盘”。我们在两年前提出A股正处于机构化与国际化的交汇期，A股估值体系将迎来“拨乱反正”，优质龙头将从折价走向溢价，这一预判已经兑现。那么未来龙头是否能够继续跑赢？龙头溢价是否能够持续？机构化时代市场分化将如何演绎？40年的美股经验将告诉我们答案。\n报告正文\n一、美股：龙头跑赢40...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/49ddR8wHxDhQrVHsBgGzVQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c447a7ff1528635c8ed2f58842bb76a6","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/49ddR8wHxDhQrVHsBgGzVQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126642649","content_text":"前言：近期A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，“机构抱团”、“龙头溢价”再度引发热议，不少投资者开始担忧“抱团瓦解”、“抱团崩盘”。我们在两年前提出A股正处于机构化与国际化的交汇期，A股估值体系将迎来“拨乱反正”，优质龙头将从折价走向溢价，这一预判已经兑现。那么未来龙头是否能够继续跑赢？龙头溢价是否能够持续？机构化时代市场分化将如何演绎？40年的美股经验将告诉我们答案。\n报告正文\n一、美股：龙头跑赢40年\n1、龙头持续跑赢40年\n美股龙头跑赢40年，龙头表现长期优于非龙头。以流通市值前20%代表龙头，后80%代表非龙头，美股在大小市值个股之间存在着长期且显著的涨跌分化现象。自1970年以来，流通市值前20%的个股在绝大多数时间里表现更优，1980年以来龙头个股更是连续40年跑赢非龙头，大市值龙头涨幅更为显著。进一步以2020年为例，市值大于5000亿的个股全年涨跌幅中位数录得37.81%，而市值小于50亿的个股全年涨跌幅则收跌1.17%，龙头大幅跑赢非龙头。\n\n行业角度亦是如此，各行业龙头的市场表现也普遍优于非龙头。以各行业总市值前20名作为龙头，2020年在全部11个GICS一级行业中，龙头个股的涨跌幅均高于非龙头个股，电信服务、可选消费、材料、信息技术等行业龙头优势较为明显，涨跌幅中位数差分别达38.04%、21.22%、17.43%和16.61%。\n\n2、龙头“垄断”流动性\n资金向龙头集中，小市值个股丧失流动性。1970年以来，流通市值后80%成交占比震荡回落，从此前30%以上下滑至10%以下。从1980年以来，20%的个股垄断式的占据了全市场近90%的成交规模，小市值劣质个股逐渐遭到市场抛弃。\n\n3、龙头估值长期溢价\n美股龙头从折价走向溢价，长期维持估值溢价，好东西越来越贵。1970年以来，美股龙头逐渐从折价走向溢价。自80年代以来，美股龙头长期享受估值溢价，流通市值前20%的龙头PE估值持续高于流通市值后80%的非龙头。且1990年以来，龙头估值溢价逐步扩大，尤其是2009年至今的美股十年长牛中，美股龙头越来越贵。进一步从2020年美股PE水平看，以市值分组的个股PE中位数依次降低，市值大于5000亿的个股PE中位数达38.80，而市值小于50亿的个股PE仅为18.19，大市值个股溢价显著。\n\n行业角度亦是如此，优势行业更贵，行业龙头更贵。从行业PB-ROE来看，信息科技、可选消费、必需消费等行业凭借较高的盈利能力享受估值溢价，公用事业、金融等传统周期行业盈利更差、估值较低。各行业龙头个股估值溢价，以各行业总市值前20名作为行业龙头，龙头的估值水平均高于整体，其中以信息技术、医疗保健、可选消费等行业尤为明显。\n\n4、龙头强者恒强\n美国经济从增量到存量，龙头与非龙头盈利分化，龙头股盈利长期强于非龙头，成为美股大分化时代的基石。经历过战后经济的蓬勃发展，从1970年后美国开始转型，并在1980年后成功完成转型。伴随经济从增量转向存量，马太效应下龙头与非龙头盈利逐渐分化。1980年之后，龙头ROE长期维持在8%上下且波动较小，但非龙头ROE从10%以上逐步下滑至4%中枢，且盈利波动更大。龙头更强且更加稳定的盈利能力，成为股价分化、流动性分化、估值分化的重要原因。\n\n二、美股龙头跑赢背后：机构化的必然趋势\n美股龙头跑赢40年，龙头与非龙头在流动性、估值、盈利等方面呈现出巨大的分化，其背后的原因离不开美股机构化时代的开启。\n美股机构化从1950年之后开启，最迅速“去散户化”过程发生在1950-1990、1990-2007两个阶段，以养老金和共同基金为代表的机构投资者逐渐占据主导，形成基金-养老金-外资-散户四分股市的投资者结构。\n•1950年至1990年，70年代起美国养老金入市成为颠覆“散户化”结构的第一股力量。战后美国养老金体系逐渐完善，70年代开始养老体制改革，特别是1981年美国《联邦税法》中401(K)、403(B)及457条款推出，DB计划与DC计划规模快速增长。1990年散户、养老金、外资、基金、保险占比为48.2%、24.3%、6.9%、7.5%、4.6%，较1950年散户几近腰斩，养老金成为股市的第二大投资者。\n•1990年前后，随着各类复杂的投资工具和衍生产品大量出现，基金接棒养老金成为“去散户化”的第二股资金，进一步压缩散户占比。2007年占比从大到小为散户、基金、养老金、外资、保险，分别是38.0%、27.6%、15.3%、10.8%、2.7%，较1990年散户占比继续下降，共同基金崛起成为第二大投资者，与养老金共同成为美股机构投资者的两大支柱。自2007年至今，美股投资者结构基本保持稳定。\n\n伴随美股机构化的开启，机构投资者步入觉醒时代，资金拥抱优质龙头，美股迎来龙头与非龙头长达40余年的大分化时代。自70年代以来，随着美国养老金规模进一步壮大、公募基金迅速发展，机构投资者崛起，美股开启快速去散户化时代。1970年以来，随着散户占比的下降，小市值个股的成交占比萎缩，机构投资者“以大为美”的选股偏好，加速了市场资金向大市值龙头集聚的过程。以贝莱德为例，2020Q3持仓前五即是美国最大龙头FAAMG，仅苹果公司持仓即达到6%。机构化成为美股龙头持续跑赢的极为重要的原因。\n\n三、A股机构化加速，龙头跑赢成为新常态\n近几年A股机构化加速，以公募基金、外资、保险为代表的机构资金成为市场主要增量资金来源。\n一是2017-2019年，外资成为A股市场最重要的增量资金。随着陆港通开通和MSCI落地，境外资金入场明显提速。近几年北上年度净流入在2000-3500亿，截至2020年9月，外资占流通市值比例超过4.73%，成为A股市场第二大机构投资者。\n二是2019-2020年，公募接力外资成为A股市场上最重要的增量资金。2020年偏股基金（股票型+混合型）共发行超过2万亿、净流入超过1.6万亿，创下历史最高，超过2016-2019年四年总和。\n\n机构化加速，龙头大幅跑赢。外资占比与陆股通重仓股相对收益高度相关，外资从2017年大幅流入，成为A股市场最重要增量资金，外资重仓龙头持续跑赢。2019年以来基金崛起，成为市场主导资金，基金话语权快速提升，带来基金重仓股大幅跑赢大盘。\n\n机构化推动A股龙头从折价走向溢价。2017年开始，以龙头为代表的A股核心资产不断突破估值上限创新高，这背后其实是机构化带来的A股估值体系的“拨乱反正”，龙头从折价走向溢价。两年前A股多数行业龙头折价明显，这与成熟市场各行业龙头溢价格局大相径庭。随着机构对龙头定价权提升，当前A股多行业龙头获得估值溢价，估值迎来修复。\n\n我们认为当前A股正处于机构化加速阶段，A股龙头价值重估仍将继续，未来龙头溢价也将成为新常态，好东西越来越贵，越好的东西越贵。一是我国居民加配权益资产是大势所趋，而公募基金、银行理财以及养老金等间接途径则将成为我国居民加配权益资产的主要途径。二是A股外资占比仍偏低，预计外资未来也将持续做多A股。内外资合力之下，A股市场机构化程度将显著提升，未来好东西越来越贵，越好的东西越贵。\n四、总结\n1、美股龙头持续跑赢40年。各行业龙头跑赢非龙头。\n2、美股龙头“垄断”流动性。20%的个股垄断90%的成交规模，小市值劣质个股逐渐被市场抛弃。\n3、美股龙头从折价走向溢价，长期享受估值溢价，龙头越来越贵。各行业龙头比非龙头更贵。\n4、美股龙头强者恒强。伴随美国经济从增量到存量，龙头与非龙头盈利分化，龙头股盈利长期强于非龙头。\n5、美股龙头跑赢是机构化时代的必然趋势。美股经历从散户化到机构化的变革，70年代和90年代养老金和共同基金的相继崛起，推动美股步入机构化时代，拉开美股龙头与非龙头大分化时代的序幕。\n6、过去几年A股机构化加速，龙头大幅跑赢，龙头逐渐从折价走向溢价。\n7、借鉴美股，机构化时代龙头跑赢与溢价将成为常态，未来A股龙头价值重估仍将继续，好东西越来越贵，越好的东西越贵\n风险提示\n1、历史数据统计与实际情况可能存在误差；2、对比研究方法存在局限性，结论或存在一定偏差。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}