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你若安好我就放心
2022-05-24
熊市？不会吧
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你若安好我就放心
2022-05-24
熊市过了？
抱歉，原内容已删除
你若安好我就放心
2021-12-15
你们最后悔买了那些股票！我买的最好的就是特斯拉赚了差不多百分之50左右，我是700左右上车的，才差不多到1100我就出仓！我最近考CFA证，图片上这个人又没有这张证，他说真的有这么简单嘛？
你若安好我就放心
2021-02-04
为啥不是我
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你若安好我就放心
2021-01-29
太恶心了
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14:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月24日，美股股指期货持续走低，纳指期货现跌超2%，标普500指数期货跌1.42%，道指期货跌近0.93%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93caa982b505bed404bdb8948954b297\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116626206","content_text":"5月24日，美股股指期货持续走低，纳指期货现跌超2%，标普500指数期货跌1.42%，道指期货跌近0.93%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":614983374,"gmtCreate":1653328485298,"gmtModify":1653328485298,"author":{"id":"3574287340567699","authorId":"3574287340567699","name":"你若安好我就放心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9577a2cb926becb174ba67f5f877e25f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"熊市过了？","listText":"熊市过了？","text":"熊市过了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614983374","repostId":"1198133925","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198133925","pubTimestamp":1653298285,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198133925?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-23 17:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"对冲基金表现史上最差，到底谁在大量做空美股？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198133925","media":"美港电讯","summary":"高盛认为，对冲基金持仓的改变反映出整个市场的资本配置调整。过去几年，低利率支撑了除了股票“别无他选”（There Is No Alternative to equities）的说法，机构和散户投资者均","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>认为，对冲基金持仓的改变反映出整个市场的资本配置调整。过去几年，低利率支撑了除了股票“别无他选”（There Is No Alternative to equities）的说法，机构和散户投资者均增加了股票的持有，成长股从中获益。 如今，实际利率摆脱负区间，经济衰退担忧加剧，股市暴跌。这都表明，除了股票，其实还有其他更合理的选项。投资者相应地做出了调整，机构和散户都在逃离股市，特别是成长股。</blockquote><p>5月20日，标普500盘中跌势加剧，距离跌入熊市仅有一步之遥。让市场震惊的是，流动性真空环境中，标普500在当天最后一小时的交易回升，收盘回到3900上方。这也是过去一周内，标普500第三次惊险地避免陷入熊市（即从1月历史高点下跌20%以上，分水岭大概为3855点左右。）</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa8bb5c6baba4f3015a5ce986842e2b\" tg-width=\"555\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>标普500再度避过一劫的原因是，每当空头仓位激增，市场就会出现空头挤兑。</b>我们怎样才能知道空头数量是否累积到稍微反弹就能遭挤兑的地步呢？从高盛大宗经纪业务数据，我们可以获得以下几个信息：</p><p><b>1.当天，美股出现四天内首次净卖出，多空比为1:2.5</b></p><p><b>2.周三（5月18日）大宗经纪业务数据显示，做空比例相对标普4%的跌幅而言较低，说明对冲基金做空并非当天暴跌的原因，但也说明他们在暴跌之前就已经大量做空了。</b></p><p><b>3.同时，高盛研究团队的量化指标也显示，散户在过去几个月也在做空，逆转2019年1月份以来积累增加的26%净买入仓位。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fddab2b55f4a7b6ce9872b424b2d328\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>高盛发现，个股和宏观品种（指数和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a>）均出现净卖出，分别占67%和33%。个股在上个月的净卖出金额最大，11个板块中有9个板块遭净卖出，最严重的是信息科技、电信服务、工业、医疗和材料板块。</p><p>并不是说对冲基金不想赚钱，非必需消费品和必需品虽然在上周三表现最差，但均获得大宗经纪业务净买入，分别得益于多头买入和空头回补。</p><p>另一方面，长期受挫的信息科技板块连续第二天遭到净卖出，而此前在5月10日-5月16日则连续获得净买入。过去一个月，受做空和多头卖出影响，信息科技板块录得最大净卖出金额。</p><p><b>下图的红线显示，美股空头已经达到2022年以来最高水平，更加说明当前市场看空情绪蔓延。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f26f2a96f8119c8e6644a23681d9a5f\" tg-width=\"276\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>对冲基金都在加速做空，这也解释了最近VIX波动指数上升以及股价暴跌的原因。空头仓位上升，对冲基金的总敞口和净敞口下降。高盛的数据显示，杠杆下降的幅度达到历史高位。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5abb349a5ec55fb01c20dd60ca53978\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但是，高盛对冲基金销售主管Tony Pasquariello表示，过去十五年内，单日跌幅超过4%的只有36天，但VIX波动指数没有一次像周三那么低。再度说明，做空早就开始了。</p><p>下面是高盛季度对冲基金跟踪报告的五个亮点：</p><p><b>1.股市表现</b></p><p>2022年至今，Alpha和Beta都给对冲基金的盈利带来极大逆风。标普500迎来1932年以来的最差开年表现，导致Beta面临更大挑战。而Alpha方面，自2021年初以来，高盛对冲基金VIP名单上最受欢迎的个股列表（GSTHHVIP）表现就比标普500落后28个基点，是史上最糟糕表现。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d461a84b23af19dfc69ae3328c4f86a\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>对冲基金做空则更顺利些，空头头寸最集中的个股今年为止下跌31%，不及标普500和GSTHHVIP。标普500成分股空头头寸中位数是其市值的1.5%，达到25年低位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dcb7e94276b5e6c1c6e13ab7ddf3bb\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.杠杆和资金流向</b></p><p>对冲基金的净杠杆率从2021年开始下降，最近几个月加速下滑。高盛大宗经纪业务数据显示，净杠杆率在2021年春达到历史高位，目前处于过去五年的第30百分位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84333cd0e3d57ce78f0cbbdbe3c2b3fd\" tg-width=\"555\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>虽然最近遭到空头施压，但各类投资者分配给股市的资金配置仍然处于高位，特别是散户，说明如果宏观环境如果继续恶化，那股市将面临更大抛售压力。</p><p><b>3.对冲基金VIP名单上最受欢迎的个股</b></p><p><b>虽然科技股遭到抛售，但FAAMG（Facebook、Apple、Amazon、Microsoft和Google）仍然最受欢迎，其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>排行第一。这个列表包括前十对冲基金持仓的50个个股，其中包括四个能源股，分别是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHK\">切萨皮克能源</a>公司CHK、瓦拉里斯VAL、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>公司OXY和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CQH\">钱尼尔能源</a>LNG，能源行业权重达到10%。</b></p><p>自2001年以来，列表上的个股季度表现有58%的时间都超过标普500，平均季度额外收益达到40个基点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb3d399cef5c325f53f3a55aa90acb4\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>名单中还有16个新成员：安森保险、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APO\">阿波罗全球管理</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">动视暴雪</a>、切萨皮克能源、Change Healthcare、CrowdStrike、EQT能源、Five9、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPN\">环汇有限公司</a>、哈门那、迈威尔科技、西方石油、Anaplan、美国电话电报公司、华仕伯、Zillow-C。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a81d98c3ffe164bcca60c7d6676bb2\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.成长股</b></p><p><b>对冲基金继续降低成长股的敞口。利率上升、杠杆下降拖累了这些市盈率极高的个股的市值。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ab93c678d094c70f92cc73418bbaca\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5.行业</b></p><p>对冲基金增加了对工业和材料行业的投资，减少了对以前最受欢迎的增长股的敞口。信息技术和非必需消费品的偏好降至至少十年来的最低水平。大型科技股是这两个行业头寸降低的主要对象，资金逐渐从苹果、亚马逊和特斯拉转移至其他地方。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f81ec868e59e5bd5ddeb86d9a331cf\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>高盛分析师Ben Snider表示，<b>股市普遍下跌，最被看好的股票下跌甚至更加严重，导致对冲基金今年的开年表现创历史最差。</b>高频数据显示，<b>今年至今股票对冲基金的平均收益率是-9%</b>，高盛大宗经纪业务服务预计，<b>资产加权下跌17%</b>。</p><p>因此，最近几个月，<b>对冲基金加快降低杠杆，远离几个季度前还在大幅加仓的成长股，同时加大做空仓位。</b></p><p>但是，高盛也表示，这些调整不够快，虽然四个能源股加入了最受对冲基金欢迎的个股列表，但科技股仍占列表50个企业中的三分之一以上，五个大型科技股仍占据最重要的位置。</p><p>这个列表上的个股今年至今回报率是-27%，标普500是-18%，而去年列表公司比标普500收益仅落后17个基点。今年至今，这些个股已经回吐2014年至今的所有额外回报。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f728a5ae04b93701b712964464b5953\" tg-width=\"561\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>总的来说，<b>高盛认为，对冲基金持仓的改变反映出整个市场的资本配置调整。</b>过去几年，低利率支撑了除了股票“别无他选”（There Is No Alternative to equities）的说法，机构和散户投资者均增加了股票的持有，成长股从中获益。</p><p><b>如今，实际利率摆脱负区间，经济衰退担忧加剧，股市暴跌。这都表明，除了股票，其实还有其他更合理的选项。投资者相应地做出了调整，机构和散户都在逃离股市，特别是成长股。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ae633cdf130a5d7404ba506bd97716d\" tg-width=\"513\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>对冲基金的调整将加快股价下跌-杠杆下降-流动性匮乏的恶性循环。这也将使得今年的投资环境更复杂。</b></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>对冲基金表现史上最差，到底谁在大量做空美股？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对冲基金表现史上最差，到底谁在大量做空美股？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-23 17:31 北京时间 <a href=https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1004395&type=news><strong>美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛认为，对冲基金持仓的改变反映出整个市场的资本配置调整。过去几年，低利率支撑了除了股票“别无他选”（There Is No Alternative to equities）的说法，机构和散户投资者均增加了股票的持有，成长股从中获益。 如今，实际利率摆脱负区间，经济衰退担忧加剧，股市暴跌。这都表明，除了股票，其实还有其他更合理的选项。投资者相应地做出了调整，机构和散户都在逃离股市，特别是成长股。5...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1004395&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a3265725dba67c0660b26a189585aa","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1004395&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198133925","content_text":"高盛认为，对冲基金持仓的改变反映出整个市场的资本配置调整。过去几年，低利率支撑了除了股票“别无他选”（There Is No Alternative to equities）的说法，机构和散户投资者均增加了股票的持有，成长股从中获益。 如今，实际利率摆脱负区间，经济衰退担忧加剧，股市暴跌。这都表明，除了股票，其实还有其他更合理的选项。投资者相应地做出了调整，机构和散户都在逃离股市，特别是成长股。5月20日，标普500盘中跌势加剧，距离跌入熊市仅有一步之遥。让市场震惊的是，流动性真空环境中，标普500在当天最后一小时的交易回升，收盘回到3900上方。这也是过去一周内，标普500第三次惊险地避免陷入熊市（即从1月历史高点下跌20%以上，分水岭大概为3855点左右。）标普500再度避过一劫的原因是，每当空头仓位激增，市场就会出现空头挤兑。我们怎样才能知道空头数量是否累积到稍微反弹就能遭挤兑的地步呢？从高盛大宗经纪业务数据，我们可以获得以下几个信息：1.当天，美股出现四天内首次净卖出，多空比为1:2.52.周三（5月18日）大宗经纪业务数据显示，做空比例相对标普4%的跌幅而言较低，说明对冲基金做空并非当天暴跌的原因，但也说明他们在暴跌之前就已经大量做空了。3.同时，高盛研究团队的量化指标也显示，散户在过去几个月也在做空，逆转2019年1月份以来积累增加的26%净买入仓位。高盛发现，个股和宏观品种（指数和Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF）均出现净卖出，分别占67%和33%。个股在上个月的净卖出金额最大，11个板块中有9个板块遭净卖出，最严重的是信息科技、电信服务、工业、医疗和材料板块。并不是说对冲基金不想赚钱，非必需消费品和必需品虽然在上周三表现最差，但均获得大宗经纪业务净买入，分别得益于多头买入和空头回补。另一方面，长期受挫的信息科技板块连续第二天遭到净卖出，而此前在5月10日-5月16日则连续获得净买入。过去一个月，受做空和多头卖出影响，信息科技板块录得最大净卖出金额。下图的红线显示，美股空头已经达到2022年以来最高水平，更加说明当前市场看空情绪蔓延。对冲基金都在加速做空，这也解释了最近VIX波动指数上升以及股价暴跌的原因。空头仓位上升，对冲基金的总敞口和净敞口下降。高盛的数据显示，杠杆下降的幅度达到历史高位。但是，高盛对冲基金销售主管Tony Pasquariello表示，过去十五年内，单日跌幅超过4%的只有36天，但VIX波动指数没有一次像周三那么低。再度说明，做空早就开始了。下面是高盛季度对冲基金跟踪报告的五个亮点：1.股市表现2022年至今，Alpha和Beta都给对冲基金的盈利带来极大逆风。标普500迎来1932年以来的最差开年表现，导致Beta面临更大挑战。而Alpha方面，自2021年初以来，高盛对冲基金VIP名单上最受欢迎的个股列表（GSTHHVIP）表现就比标普500落后28个基点，是史上最糟糕表现。对冲基金做空则更顺利些，空头头寸最集中的个股今年为止下跌31%，不及标普500和GSTHHVIP。标普500成分股空头头寸中位数是其市值的1.5%，达到25年低位。2.杠杆和资金流向对冲基金的净杠杆率从2021年开始下降，最近几个月加速下滑。高盛大宗经纪业务数据显示，净杠杆率在2021年春达到历史高位，目前处于过去五年的第30百分位。虽然最近遭到空头施压，但各类投资者分配给股市的资金配置仍然处于高位，特别是散户，说明如果宏观环境如果继续恶化，那股市将面临更大抛售压力。3.对冲基金VIP名单上最受欢迎的个股虽然科技股遭到抛售，但FAAMG（Facebook、Apple、Amazon、Microsoft和Google）仍然最受欢迎，其中，微软排行第一。这个列表包括前十对冲基金持仓的50个个股，其中包括四个能源股，分别是切萨皮克能源公司CHK、瓦拉里斯VAL、西方石油公司OXY和钱尼尔能源LNG，能源行业权重达到10%。自2001年以来，列表上的个股季度表现有58%的时间都超过标普500，平均季度额外收益达到40个基点。名单中还有16个新成员：安森保险、阿波罗全球管理、动视暴雪、切萨皮克能源、Change Healthcare、CrowdStrike、EQT能源、Five9、环汇有限公司、哈门那、迈威尔科技、西方石油、Anaplan、美国电话电报公司、华仕伯、Zillow-C。4.成长股对冲基金继续降低成长股的敞口。利率上升、杠杆下降拖累了这些市盈率极高的个股的市值。5.行业对冲基金增加了对工业和材料行业的投资，减少了对以前最受欢迎的增长股的敞口。信息技术和非必需消费品的偏好降至至少十年来的最低水平。大型科技股是这两个行业头寸降低的主要对象，资金逐渐从苹果、亚马逊和特斯拉转移至其他地方。高盛分析师Ben Snider表示，股市普遍下跌，最被看好的股票下跌甚至更加严重，导致对冲基金今年的开年表现创历史最差。高频数据显示，今年至今股票对冲基金的平均收益率是-9%，高盛大宗经纪业务服务预计，资产加权下跌17%。因此，最近几个月，对冲基金加快降低杠杆，远离几个季度前还在大幅加仓的成长股，同时加大做空仓位。但是，高盛也表示，这些调整不够快，虽然四个能源股加入了最受对冲基金欢迎的个股列表，但科技股仍占列表50个企业中的三分之一以上，五个大型科技股仍占据最重要的位置。这个列表上的个股今年至今回报率是-27%，标普500是-18%，而去年列表公司比标普500收益仅落后17个基点。今年至今，这些个股已经回吐2014年至今的所有额外回报。总的来说，高盛认为，对冲基金持仓的改变反映出整个市场的资本配置调整。过去几年，低利率支撑了除了股票“别无他选”（There Is No Alternative to equities）的说法，机构和散户投资者均增加了股票的持有，成长股从中获益。如今，实际利率摆脱负区间，经济衰退担忧加剧，股市暴跌。这都表明，除了股票，其实还有其他更合理的选项。投资者相应地做出了调整，机构和散户都在逃离股市，特别是成长股。对冲基金的调整将加快股价下跌-杠杆下降-流动性匮乏的恶性循环。这也将使得今年的投资环境更复杂。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
