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Jfzarn

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2021-02-20

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2021-03-01

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2021-02-22

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2021-02-19

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2021-03-16

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2021-03-20

$Apple(AAPL)$Holding

2021-03-04

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2 Hot 5G Stocks to Buy Before They Explode<blockquote>2只热门5G股票在爆炸前买入</blockquote>

2021-02-26

Stocks going down

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2021-02-23

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‘Buffett Indicator’ is alarmingly bearish and this year’s Berkshire shareholder letter could reveal why<blockquote>“巴菲特指标”令人震惊地看跌，今年的伯克希尔股东信可能会揭示原因</blockquote>

2021-02-21

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IDC estimates that smartphone shipments jumped 4.3% year-over-year last quarter to 385.9 million units, paving the way for a strong recovery in 2021 after a 5.9% decline in shipments last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机市场在2020年第四季度出现转机，在高位结束了艰难的一年。IDC估计，上季度智能手机出货量同比增长4.3%至3.859亿部，为继去年出货量下降5.9%后，2021年的强劲复苏铺平了道路。</blockquote></p><p><b>Skyworks Solutions</b>(NASDAQ: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$(SWKS)$</a>)and<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$(MU)$</a>)are two stocks that are already taking advantage of this turnaround, as they manufacture chips that go into 5G (fifth-generation) smartphones. Skyworks is witnessingtremendous growthin its mobile business, while Micron is about to join the party as well. These factors have contributed to a strong start on the market this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b767d4f2f28bb7d1309b7de0e38239\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These chipmakers are unlikely to lose their impressive stock market momentum in the coming months, as 5G smartphone sales are expected to switch into a higher gear in 2021.<b>Gartner</b>forecasts that global 5G smartphone shipments could jump to nearly 539 million units this year and account for 35% of the overall market. This would be a huge jump over last year's 5G smartphone shipments of 213 million units, and pave the way for stronger growth in Skyworks and Micron's mobile businesses in 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b>Skyworks解决方案</b>（纳斯达克：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$(SWKS)$</a>）和<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$（亩）$</a>）是两只已经利用这一转变的股票，因为它们生产用于5G（第五代）智能手机的芯片。Skyworks正在见证其移动业务的巨大增长，而美光也即将加入这一行列。这些因素促成了今年市场的强劲开局。这些芯片制造商不太可能在未来几个月失去令人印象深刻的股市势头，因为5G智能手机的销售预计将在2021年进入更高的档位。<b>Gartner</b>预测今年全球5G智能手机出货量可能跃升至近5.39亿部，占整体市场的35%。与去年2.13亿部的5G智能手机出货量相比，这将是一个巨大的飞跃，并为Skyworks和美光移动业务在2021年的更强劲增长铺平道路。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Skyworks Solutions' mobile business is on a roll</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.Skyworks Solutions的移动业务发展势头良好</b></blockquote></p><p>Skyworks' mobile business is its biggest source of revenue, accounting for 78% of its top line last quarter. Skyworks' mobile revenue shot up 81% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Jan. 1, 2021, to $1.18 billion.<b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ: AAPL)-- Skyworks' largest customer, generating 56% of total revenue --hit goldwith its latest flagship devices, and that sent the chipmaker's mobile business soaring.</p><p><blockquote>Skyworks的移动业务是其最大的收入来源，占上季度营收的78%。截至2021年1月1日的2021财年第一季度，Skyworks的移动收入同比猛增81%，达到11.8亿美元。<b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）——Skyworks最大的客户，占总收入的56%——凭借其最新的旗舰设备获得了金牌，这使得这家芯片制造商的移动业务飙升。</blockquote></p><p>The Apple catalyst is here to stay for Skyworks for the remainder of the year, for a couple of reasons. First, Apple is expected to remain atop 5G smartphone supplierin 2021 thanks to a large base of users in an upgrade window. Apple's well-priced iPhone 12 lineup and the possibility ofan entry-level devicesupporting the latest wireless standard could help the smartphone giant record strong shipment gains in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，苹果催化剂将在今年剩余时间里留在Skyworks。首先，由于升级窗口中的大量用户，苹果预计将在2021年保持5G智能手机供应商的领先地位。苹果价格合理的iPhone 12系列以及支持最新无线标准的入门级设备的可能性可能会帮助这家智能手机巨头在2021年创下强劲的出货量增长。</blockquote></p><p>Second, Skyworks is a key Apple supplier. It reportedly supplies as many as eight radio-frequency (RF) modules for the iPhone 12, so Skyworks could see a nice spike in volumes and gain more revenue per iPhone, especially as 5G chips are more expensive than their 4G predecessors.</p><p><blockquote>其次，Skyworks是苹果的关键供应商。据报道，它为iPhone 12提供了多达8个射频(RF)模块，因此Skyworks可能会看到销量大幅飙升，并获得每部iPhone的更多收入，特别是在5G芯片比4G前辈更贵的情况下。</blockquote></p><p>Throw in the fact that Skyworks has started ramping up shipments of its 5G chips to other smartphone OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) such as Vivo, Oppo,<b>Samsung</b>, and<b>Xiaomi</b>, and it becomes easier to see why its mobile business could continue clocking high growth rates. And Skyworks' non-mobile business (better known as the broad markets portfolio) is also benefiting from the 5G rollout.</p><p><blockquote>再加上Skyworks已开始增加其5G芯片向其他智能手机OEM（原始设备制造商）的出货量，例如Vivo、Oppo、<b>三星</b>，和<b>小米</b>，也就更容易理解为什么其移动业务能够继续保持高增长率。Skyworks的非移动业务（更广为人知的名称是广泛的市场投资组合）也受益于5G的推出。</blockquote></p><p>The company's broad markets revenue shot up 35% year-over-year during the quarter as demand for its connectivity solutions supporting 5G infrastructure remained strong. Skyworks recently pointed out that it has shipped more than a million of its 5G small-cell power amplifiers, which help telecom carriers boost network speed.</p><p><blockquote>由于对其支持5G基础设施的连接解决方案的需求依然强劲，该公司的广阔市场收入在本季度同比猛增35%。Skyworks最近指出，其5G小蜂窝功率放大器的出货量已超过100万台，这些放大器有助于电信运营商提高网络速度。</blockquote></p><p>The company also says that the 5G small-cell market still has a lot of room to grow. It could be worth $8.3 billion by 2027, clocking a compound annual growth rate of 43% in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，5G小蜂窝市场仍有很大的增长空间。到2027年，它的价值可能达到83亿美元，未来几年的复合年增长率为43%。</blockquote></p><p>Thanks to such impressive catalysts, it isn't surprising to see that Skyworks' top and bottom lines are expected to take off this fiscal year. And it isn't too late for investors to jump onto this bandwagon, as thistop 5G stocktrades at an attractive 21 times forward earnings.</p><p><blockquote>得益于如此令人印象深刻的催化剂，Skyworks的营收和利润预计将在本财年起飞也就不足为奇了。对于投资者来说，加入这一潮流还为时不晚，因为这只顶级5G股票的预期市盈率为21倍，颇具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Micron Technology's mobile business is about to step on the gas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.美光科技移动业务即将踩油门</b></blockquote></p><p>Micron Technology's mobile business unit delivered $1.5 billion in revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Dec. 3, 2020. The segment's revenue increased 3% year-over-year, accounting for nearly 26% of total revenue. Though Micron's mobile growth wasn't as spectacular as Skyworks', management pointed out that mobile \"demand remains strong as 5G momentum increases and the mobile market recovers from the impact of the pandemic.\"</p><p><blockquote>美光科技的移动业务部门在截至2020年12月3日的2021财年第一季度实现了15亿美元的收入。该部门的收入同比增长3%，占总收入的近26%。尽管美光的移动增长不如Skyworks那么引人注目，但管理层指出，“随着5G势头的增强以及移动市场从大流行的影响中复苏，移动需求仍然强劲。”</blockquote></p><p>Mobile accounts for 40% of the overall DRAM market, according to a third-party estimate, and manufacturers such as Micron are reportedly allocating more capacity toward the production of mobile DRAM to meet the recent surge in demand. In fact, demand seems to be so strong that mobile DRAM orders placed in the fourth quarter of 2020 are expected to be fulfilled only in the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>据第三方估计，移动DRAM占整个DRAM市场的40%，据报道，美光等制造商正在分配更多产能用于移动DRAM的生产，以满足最近激增的需求。事实上，需求似乎如此强劲，以至于2020年第四季度下的移动DRAM订单预计只能在本季度完成。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>This tight supply of DRAM should ideally result in improved pricing. Industry data supports that: The spot price of the 8 GB DDR4 DRAM jumped to $3.93 earlier in February, a sharp jump over the spot price of $2.54 seen in August 2020.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，这种DRAM供应紧张应该会提高定价。行业数据支持这一点：8 GB DDR4 DRAM的现货价格在2月初跃升至3.93美元，较2020年8月2.54美元的现货价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, mobile DRAM demand should remain strong, as 5G smartphones are beingequipped with more memorythan their 4G predecessors. This bodes well for Micron, as it reportedly controls 20% of the mobile DRAM market. What's more, the company is trying to grab even more of this space withspecialized 5G memory chipsthat help reduce space and power consumption while delivering faster performance.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，移动DRAM需求应该会保持强劲，因为5G智能手机比4G智能手机配备了更多的内存。这对美光来说是个好兆头，因为据报道，它控制着20%的移动DRAM市场。更重要的是，该公司正试图通过专门的5G存储芯片来抢占更多空间，这些芯片有助于减少空间和功耗，同时提供更快的性能。</blockquote></p><p>So a mix of higher pricing and improved shipment volumes will be a tailwind for Micron's mobile business this year. More importantly, the mobile DRAM market presents a long-term growth opportunity for Micron given its solid market share in this space. The global mobile DRAM market's revenue is expected to jump from an estimated $19.5 billion last year to $35.6 billion in 2027, according to a third-party estimate.</p><p><blockquote>因此，更高的定价和更好的出货量将成为美光今年移动业务的推动力。更重要的是，鉴于美光在该领域稳固的市场份额，移动DRAM市场为美光提供了长期增长机会。根据第三方估计，全球移动DRAM市场的收入预计将从去年的195亿美元跃升至2027年的356亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Thrownother catalystssuch as data centers, consoles, and personal computers into the mix, and it isn't too difficult to see why Micron's earnings are expected to grow at a fast clip over the next couple of years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4432a84bca38fc32d66f505cac1dbae\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MU EPS Estimates for Next Fiscal Yeardata byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>再加上数据中心、游戏机和个人电脑等其他催化剂，就不难理解为什么美光科技的盈利预计将在未来几年快速增长。MU下一财年每股收益预测数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p>That's why investors looking to buy a diversified company to take advantage of the growing adoption of 5G smartphones might want to consider Micron Technology, as it has multiple businesses driving its growth. What's more, Micron is trading at less than 22 times forward earnings, so it isn't too late to buy thisgrowth stock-- it has room for more upside thanks to catalysts such as 5G smartphones.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么希望收购一家多元化公司以利用5G智能手机日益普及的机会的投资者可能会考虑美光科技，因为该公司拥有多项业务推动其增长。更重要的是，美光科技的预期市盈率不到22倍，因此购买这只成长型股票还为时不晚——得益于5G智能手机等催化剂，它还有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Hot 5G Stocks to Buy Before They Explode<blockquote>2只热门5G股票在爆炸前买入</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Hot 5G Stocks to Buy Before They Explode<blockquote>2只热门5G股票在爆炸前买入</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nasdaq</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The smartphone market turned around in the fourth quarter of 2020 and ended a difficult year on a high. IDC estimates that smartphone shipments jumped 4.3% year-over-year last quarter to 385.9 million units, paving the way for a strong recovery in 2021 after a 5.9% decline in shipments last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机市场在2020年第四季度出现转机，在高位结束了艰难的一年。IDC估计，上季度智能手机出货量同比增长4.3%至3.859亿部，为继去年出货量下降5.9%后，2021年的强劲复苏铺平了道路。</blockquote></p><p><b>Skyworks Solutions</b>(NASDAQ: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$(SWKS)$</a>)and<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$(MU)$</a>)are two stocks that are already taking advantage of this turnaround, as they manufacture chips that go into 5G (fifth-generation) smartphones. Skyworks is witnessingtremendous growthin its mobile business, while Micron is about to join the party as well. These factors have contributed to a strong start on the market this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b767d4f2f28bb7d1309b7de0e38239\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These chipmakers are unlikely to lose their impressive stock market momentum in the coming months, as 5G smartphone sales are expected to switch into a higher gear in 2021.<b>Gartner</b>forecasts that global 5G smartphone shipments could jump to nearly 539 million units this year and account for 35% of the overall market. This would be a huge jump over last year's 5G smartphone shipments of 213 million units, and pave the way for stronger growth in Skyworks and Micron's mobile businesses in 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b>Skyworks解决方案</b>（纳斯达克：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$(SWKS)$</a>）和<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$（亩）$</a>）是两只已经利用这一转变的股票，因为它们生产用于5G（第五代）智能手机的芯片。Skyworks正在见证其移动业务的巨大增长，而美光也即将加入这一行列。这些因素促成了今年市场的强劲开局。这些芯片制造商不太可能在未来几个月失去令人印象深刻的股市势头，因为5G智能手机的销售预计将在2021年进入更高的档位。<b>Gartner</b>预测今年全球5G智能手机出货量可能跃升至近5.39亿部，占整体市场的35%。与去年2.13亿部的5G智能手机出货量相比，这将是一个巨大的飞跃，并为Skyworks和美光移动业务在2021年的更强劲增长铺平道路。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Skyworks Solutions' mobile business is on a roll</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.Skyworks Solutions的移动业务发展势头良好</b></blockquote></p><p>Skyworks' mobile business is its biggest source of revenue, accounting for 78% of its top line last quarter. Skyworks' mobile revenue shot up 81% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Jan. 1, 2021, to $1.18 billion.<b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ: AAPL)-- Skyworks' largest customer, generating 56% of total revenue --hit goldwith its latest flagship devices, and that sent the chipmaker's mobile business soaring.</p><p><blockquote>Skyworks的移动业务是其最大的收入来源，占上季度营收的78%。截至2021年1月1日的2021财年第一季度，Skyworks的移动收入同比猛增81%，达到11.8亿美元。<b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）——Skyworks最大的客户，占总收入的56%——凭借其最新的旗舰设备获得了金牌，这使得这家芯片制造商的移动业务飙升。</blockquote></p><p>The Apple catalyst is here to stay for Skyworks for the remainder of the year, for a couple of reasons. First, Apple is expected to remain atop 5G smartphone supplierin 2021 thanks to a large base of users in an upgrade window. Apple's well-priced iPhone 12 lineup and the possibility ofan entry-level devicesupporting the latest wireless standard could help the smartphone giant record strong shipment gains in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，苹果催化剂将在今年剩余时间里留在Skyworks。首先，由于升级窗口中的大量用户，苹果预计将在2021年保持5G智能手机供应商的领先地位。苹果价格合理的iPhone 12系列以及支持最新无线标准的入门级设备的可能性可能会帮助这家智能手机巨头在2021年创下强劲的出货量增长。</blockquote></p><p>Second, Skyworks is a key Apple supplier. It reportedly supplies as many as eight radio-frequency (RF) modules for the iPhone 12, so Skyworks could see a nice spike in volumes and gain more revenue per iPhone, especially as 5G chips are more expensive than their 4G predecessors.</p><p><blockquote>其次，Skyworks是苹果的关键供应商。据报道，它为iPhone 12提供了多达8个射频(RF)模块，因此Skyworks可能会看到销量大幅飙升，并获得每部iPhone的更多收入，特别是在5G芯片比4G前辈更贵的情况下。</blockquote></p><p>Throw in the fact that Skyworks has started ramping up shipments of its 5G chips to other smartphone OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) such as Vivo, Oppo,<b>Samsung</b>, and<b>Xiaomi</b>, and it becomes easier to see why its mobile business could continue clocking high growth rates. And Skyworks' non-mobile business (better known as the broad markets portfolio) is also benefiting from the 5G rollout.</p><p><blockquote>再加上Skyworks已开始增加其5G芯片向其他智能手机OEM（原始设备制造商）的出货量，例如Vivo、Oppo、<b>三星</b>，和<b>小米</b>，也就更容易理解为什么其移动业务能够继续保持高增长率。Skyworks的非移动业务（更广为人知的名称是广泛的市场投资组合）也受益于5G的推出。</blockquote></p><p>The company's broad markets revenue shot up 35% year-over-year during the quarter as demand for its connectivity solutions supporting 5G infrastructure remained strong. Skyworks recently pointed out that it has shipped more than a million of its 5G small-cell power amplifiers, which help telecom carriers boost network speed.</p><p><blockquote>由于对其支持5G基础设施的连接解决方案的需求依然强劲，该公司的广阔市场收入在本季度同比猛增35%。Skyworks最近指出，其5G小蜂窝功率放大器的出货量已超过100万台，这些放大器有助于电信运营商提高网络速度。</blockquote></p><p>The company also says that the 5G small-cell market still has a lot of room to grow. It could be worth $8.3 billion by 2027, clocking a compound annual growth rate of 43% in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，5G小蜂窝市场仍有很大的增长空间。到2027年，它的价值可能达到83亿美元，未来几年的复合年增长率为43%。</blockquote></p><p>Thanks to such impressive catalysts, it isn't surprising to see that Skyworks' top and bottom lines are expected to take off this fiscal year. And it isn't too late for investors to jump onto this bandwagon, as thistop 5G stocktrades at an attractive 21 times forward earnings.</p><p><blockquote>得益于如此令人印象深刻的催化剂，Skyworks的营收和利润预计将在本财年起飞也就不足为奇了。对于投资者来说，加入这一潮流还为时不晚，因为这只顶级5G股票的预期市盈率为21倍，颇具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Micron Technology's mobile business is about to step on the gas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.美光科技移动业务即将踩油门</b></blockquote></p><p>Micron Technology's mobile business unit delivered $1.5 billion in revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Dec. 3, 2020. The segment's revenue increased 3% year-over-year, accounting for nearly 26% of total revenue. Though Micron's mobile growth wasn't as spectacular as Skyworks', management pointed out that mobile \"demand remains strong as 5G momentum increases and the mobile market recovers from the impact of the pandemic.\"</p><p><blockquote>美光科技的移动业务部门在截至2020年12月3日的2021财年第一季度实现了15亿美元的收入。该部门的收入同比增长3%，占总收入的近26%。尽管美光的移动增长不如Skyworks那么引人注目，但管理层指出，“随着5G势头的增强以及移动市场从大流行的影响中复苏，移动需求仍然强劲。”</blockquote></p><p>Mobile accounts for 40% of the overall DRAM market, according to a third-party estimate, and manufacturers such as Micron are reportedly allocating more capacity toward the production of mobile DRAM to meet the recent surge in demand. In fact, demand seems to be so strong that mobile DRAM orders placed in the fourth quarter of 2020 are expected to be fulfilled only in the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>据第三方估计，移动DRAM占整个DRAM市场的40%，据报道，美光等制造商正在分配更多产能用于移动DRAM的生产，以满足最近激增的需求。事实上，需求似乎如此强劲，以至于2020年第四季度下的移动DRAM订单预计只能在本季度完成。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>This tight supply of DRAM should ideally result in improved pricing. Industry data supports that: The spot price of the 8 GB DDR4 DRAM jumped to $3.93 earlier in February, a sharp jump over the spot price of $2.54 seen in August 2020.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，这种DRAM供应紧张应该会提高定价。行业数据支持这一点：8 GB DDR4 DRAM的现货价格在2月初跃升至3.93美元，较2020年8月2.54美元的现货价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, mobile DRAM demand should remain strong, as 5G smartphones are beingequipped with more memorythan their 4G predecessors. This bodes well for Micron, as it reportedly controls 20% of the mobile DRAM market. What's more, the company is trying to grab even more of this space withspecialized 5G memory chipsthat help reduce space and power consumption while delivering faster performance.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，移动DRAM需求应该会保持强劲，因为5G智能手机比4G智能手机配备了更多的内存。这对美光来说是个好兆头，因为据报道，它控制着20%的移动DRAM市场。更重要的是，该公司正试图通过专门的5G存储芯片来抢占更多空间，这些芯片有助于减少空间和功耗，同时提供更快的性能。</blockquote></p><p>So a mix of higher pricing and improved shipment volumes will be a tailwind for Micron's mobile business this year. More importantly, the mobile DRAM market presents a long-term growth opportunity for Micron given its solid market share in this space. The global mobile DRAM market's revenue is expected to jump from an estimated $19.5 billion last year to $35.6 billion in 2027, according to a third-party estimate.</p><p><blockquote>因此，更高的定价和更好的出货量将成为美光今年移动业务的推动力。更重要的是，鉴于美光在该领域稳固的市场份额，移动DRAM市场为美光提供了长期增长机会。根据第三方估计，全球移动DRAM市场的收入预计将从去年的195亿美元跃升至2027年的356亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Thrownother catalystssuch as data centers, consoles, and personal computers into the mix, and it isn't too difficult to see why Micron's earnings are expected to grow at a fast clip over the next couple of years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4432a84bca38fc32d66f505cac1dbae\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MU EPS Estimates for Next Fiscal Yeardata byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>再加上数据中心、游戏机和个人电脑等其他催化剂，就不难理解为什么美光科技的盈利预计将在未来几年快速增长。MU下一财年每股收益预测数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p>That's why investors looking to buy a diversified company to take advantage of the growing adoption of 5G smartphones might want to consider Micron Technology, as it has multiple businesses driving its growth. What's more, Micron is trading at less than 22 times forward earnings, so it isn't too late to buy thisgrowth stock-- it has room for more upside thanks to catalysts such as 5G smartphones.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么希望收购一家多元化公司以利用5G智能手机日益普及的机会的投资者可能会考虑美光科技，因为该公司拥有多项业务推动其增长。更重要的是，美光科技的预期市盈率不到22倍，因此购买这只成长型股票还为时不晚——得益于5G智能手机等催化剂，它还有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-hot-5g-stocks-to-buy-before-they-explode-2021-03-03\">Nasdaq</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b404fb9c9ce943d48d73d9e4b47bb53c","relate_stocks":{"SWKS":"思佳讯","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-hot-5g-stocks-to-buy-before-they-explode-2021-03-03","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186654577","content_text":"The smartphone market turned around in the fourth quarter of 2020 and ended a difficult year on a high. IDC estimates that smartphone shipments jumped 4.3% year-over-year last quarter to 385.9 million units, paving the way for a strong recovery in 2021 after a 5.9% decline in shipments last year.Skyworks Solutions(NASDAQ: $(SWKS)$)andMicron Technology(NASDAQ: $(MU)$)are two stocks that are already taking advantage of this turnaround, as they manufacture chips that go into 5G (fifth-generation) smartphones. Skyworks is witnessingtremendous growthin its mobile business, while Micron is about to join the party as well. These factors have contributed to a strong start on the market this year.These chipmakers are unlikely to lose their impressive stock market momentum in the coming months, as 5G smartphone sales are expected to switch into a higher gear in 2021.Gartnerforecasts that global 5G smartphone shipments could jump to nearly 539 million units this year and account for 35% of the overall market. This would be a huge jump over last year's 5G smartphone shipments of 213 million units, and pave the way for stronger growth in Skyworks and Micron's mobile businesses in 2021.1. Skyworks Solutions' mobile business is on a rollSkyworks' mobile business is its biggest source of revenue, accounting for 78% of its top line last quarter. Skyworks' mobile revenue shot up 81% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Jan. 1, 2021, to $1.18 billion.Apple(NASDAQ: AAPL)-- Skyworks' largest customer, generating 56% of total revenue --hit goldwith its latest flagship devices, and that sent the chipmaker's mobile business soaring.The Apple catalyst is here to stay for Skyworks for the remainder of the year, for a couple of reasons. First, Apple is expected to remain atop 5G smartphone supplierin 2021 thanks to a large base of users in an upgrade window. Apple's well-priced iPhone 12 lineup and the possibility ofan entry-level devicesupporting the latest wireless standard could help the smartphone giant record strong shipment gains in 2021.Second, Skyworks is a key Apple supplier. It reportedly supplies as many as eight radio-frequency (RF) modules for the iPhone 12, so Skyworks could see a nice spike in volumes and gain more revenue per iPhone, especially as 5G chips are more expensive than their 4G predecessors.Throw in the fact that Skyworks has started ramping up shipments of its 5G chips to other smartphone OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) such as Vivo, Oppo,Samsung, andXiaomi, and it becomes easier to see why its mobile business could continue clocking high growth rates. And Skyworks' non-mobile business (better known as the broad markets portfolio) is also benefiting from the 5G rollout.The company's broad markets revenue shot up 35% year-over-year during the quarter as demand for its connectivity solutions supporting 5G infrastructure remained strong. Skyworks recently pointed out that it has shipped more than a million of its 5G small-cell power amplifiers, which help telecom carriers boost network speed.The company also says that the 5G small-cell market still has a lot of room to grow. It could be worth $8.3 billion by 2027, clocking a compound annual growth rate of 43% in the coming years.Thanks to such impressive catalysts, it isn't surprising to see that Skyworks' top and bottom lines are expected to take off this fiscal year. And it isn't too late for investors to jump onto this bandwagon, as thistop 5G stocktrades at an attractive 21 times forward earnings.2. Micron Technology's mobile business is about to step on the gasMicron Technology's mobile business unit delivered $1.5 billion in revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Dec. 3, 2020. The segment's revenue increased 3% year-over-year, accounting for nearly 26% of total revenue. Though Micron's mobile growth wasn't as spectacular as Skyworks', management pointed out that mobile \"demand remains strong as 5G momentum increases and the mobile market recovers from the impact of the pandemic.\"Mobile accounts for 40% of the overall DRAM market, according to a third-party estimate, and manufacturers such as Micron are reportedly allocating more capacity toward the production of mobile DRAM to meet the recent surge in demand. In fact, demand seems to be so strong that mobile DRAM orders placed in the fourth quarter of 2020 are expected to be fulfilled only in the current quarter.This tight supply of DRAM should ideally result in improved pricing. Industry data supports that: The spot price of the 8 GB DDR4 DRAM jumped to $3.93 earlier in February, a sharp jump over the spot price of $2.54 seen in August 2020.More importantly, mobile DRAM demand should remain strong, as 5G smartphones are beingequipped with more memorythan their 4G predecessors. This bodes well for Micron, as it reportedly controls 20% of the mobile DRAM market. What's more, the company is trying to grab even more of this space withspecialized 5G memory chipsthat help reduce space and power consumption while delivering faster performance.So a mix of higher pricing and improved shipment volumes will be a tailwind for Micron's mobile business this year. More importantly, the mobile DRAM market presents a long-term growth opportunity for Micron given its solid market share in this space. The global mobile DRAM market's revenue is expected to jump from an estimated $19.5 billion last year to $35.6 billion in 2027, according to a third-party estimate.Thrownother catalystssuch as data centers, consoles, and personal computers into the mix, and it isn't too difficult to see why Micron's earnings are expected to grow at a fast clip over the next couple of years.MU EPS Estimates for Next Fiscal Yeardata byYChartsThat's why investors looking to buy a diversified company to take advantage of the growing adoption of 5G smartphones might want to consider Micron Technology, as it has multiple businesses driving its growth. What's more, Micron is trading at less than 22 times forward earnings, so it isn't too late to buy thisgrowth stock-- it has room for more upside thanks to catalysts such as 5G smartphones.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9,"SWKS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368101782,"gmtCreate":1614297523946,"gmtModify":1703475941604,"author":{"id":"3574240097120980","authorId":"3574240097120980","name":"Jfzarn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574240097120980","authorIdStr":"3574240097120980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stocks going down&nbsp;","listText":"Stocks going down&nbsp;","text":"Stocks going down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368101782","repostId":"1169851865","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369583133,"gmtCreate":1614058682122,"gmtModify":1634551351146,"author":{"id":"3574240097120980","authorId":"3574240097120980","name":"Jfzarn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574240097120980","authorIdStr":"3574240097120980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please comment on my post&nbsp;","listText":"Please comment on my post&nbsp;","text":"Please comment on my post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369583133","repostId":"1175924985","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175924985","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614058173,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175924985?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 13:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"‘Buffett Indicator’ is alarmingly bearish and this year’s Berkshire shareholder letter could reveal why<blockquote>“巴菲特指标”令人震惊地看跌，今年的伯克希尔股东信可能会揭示原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175924985","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway’s trailing 15-year return is now below the S&P 500\nShould investors continue to g","content":"<p>Berkshire Hathaway’s trailing 15-year return is now below the S&amp;P 500</p><p><blockquote>Berkshire Hathaway过去15年的回报率目前低于标普500</blockquote></p><p> Should investors continue to give Warren Buffett the benefit of the doubt?</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该继续相信沃伦·巴菲特吗？</blockquote></p><p> That is the big question for Berkshire Hathaway&nbsp;shareholders as they anticipate Buffett’s annual letter to company shareholders, which is expected to be released on Feb. 27. Berkshire’s annual meeting of shareholders, normally held in Omaha, Neb. but this year remotely, will be another occasion in which Buffett can address this question. The shareholder meeting is scheduled for May 1.</p><p><blockquote>对于伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股东来说，这是一个大问题，因为他们预计巴菲特将于2月27日发布致公司股东的年度信。伯克希尔的年度股东大会通常在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行。但今年将是巴菲特解决这个问题的又一次机会。股东大会定于5月1日举行。</blockquote></p><p> This question wouldn’t be so urgent if 2020 — when Berkshire stock lagged the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 16 percentage points — was just an aberration. But it isn’t. The stock lagged the S&amp;P 500 by even more in 2019 (20 percentage points), and is now behind the S&amp;P 500 over the trailing five-, 10- and 15-year periods. Those are long-enough periods to satisfy at least many investors’ definition of the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如果2020年——伯克希尔股价落后标普500 16个百分点——只是一个异常，这个问题就不会那么紧迫。但事实并非如此。该股在2019年落后于标普500更多（20个百分点），目前在过去5年、10年和15年期间落后于标普500。这些期限足够长，至少可以满足许多投资者对长期的定义。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea whether Buffett will address the market-lagging performance of Berkshire stock in his letter or at the company’s annual meeting. My request for comment from the company has gone unanswered. But I would be surprised if he doesn’t address it, and in the rest of this column I want to provide some background information that will help us understand the significance of what he may have to say.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道巴菲特是否会在信中或在公司年会上谈到伯克希尔股票落后于市场的表现。我向该公司提出的置评请求没有得到答复。但如果他不解决这个问题，我会感到惊讶，在本专栏的其余部分，我想提供一些背景信息，帮助我们理解他可能要说的话的意义。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Will Buffett double down on his bearish stock market outlook?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特会加倍看跌股市前景吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Pay close attention to whether Buffett doubles down on the bearish posture with which he has approached the stock market in recent years. It’s largely because of that bearishness that Berkshire stock has lagged. At the beginning of last year’s third quarter, for example, the company was sitting on a huge pile of cash — $147 billion, in fact.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注巴菲特是否会加倍押注他近年来对待股市的看跌姿态。伯克希尔股票的表现落后很大程度上是因为这种看跌情绪。例如，去年第三季度初，该公司坐拥巨额现金——事实上为1,470亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given the company’s conservative posture, it wouldn’t take much of a drop in the overall market for Berkshire stock to once again be ahead of the S&amp;P 500 over the trailing 15 years. In fact, I calculate that all it would take would be for the S&amp;P 500 to perform at least 3% worse than the company’s stock, which is quite likely to occur in a bear market. During the 2007-2009 bear market that accompanied the Great Financial Crisis, for example, Berkshire stock beat the S&amp;P 500 by a cumulative 15 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于伯克希尔的保守姿态，在过去15年里，伯克希尔的股票不需要整体市场大幅下跌就能再次领先于标普500。事实上，我计算出，标普500的表现至少比公司股票差3%，这在熊市中很可能发生。例如，在2007-2009年伴随大金融危机的熊市期间，伯克希尔股价累计跑赢标普500 15个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> My guess is that Buffett will indeed double down on his bearishness. Consider the story told by the ratio of the stock market’s total market cap to U.S. GDP — the so-called Buffett Indicator. It got its name two decades ago when Buffett said that the ratio is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”</p><p><blockquote>我的猜测是，巴菲特确实会加倍看跌。考虑一下股市总市值与美国GDP的比率——所谓的巴菲特指标——所讲述的故事。二十年前，巴菲特表示，该比率“可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值水平的最佳单一指标”，因此得名。</blockquote></p><p> This ratio is now higher (and therefore more bearish) than at any other time in U.S. market history, higher even than where it stood at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble — as you can see from the chart below.</p><p><blockquote>这一比率现在比美国市场历史上的任何其他时期都要高（因此更加看跌），甚至高于20世纪90年代末互联网泡沫顶部的水平——如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588c144cbfb44b59031247a976215db3\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>How big of a role has luck played?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>运气起了多大的作用？</b></blockquote></p><p> Another big question as you decide whether to continue giving Buffett the benefit of the doubt: Could mere bad luck account for Berkshire’s market-lagging return? That’s an especially important question to ask, since the stock’s long-term record is nothing short of outstanding — even taking the past 15 years into account. Since 1965, Berkshire stock has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 on a dividend-adjusted basis by the annualized margin of 20.1% to 10.2%. I’m aware of no other investor alive today who has come even close to doing as well as Buffett over this 56-year period.</p><p><blockquote>当你决定是否继续相信巴菲特时，另一个大问题是：仅仅是运气不好就能解释伯克希尔落后于市场的回报吗？这是一个特别重要的问题，因为即使考虑到过去15年，该股的长期记录也非常出色。自1965年以来，伯克希尔股票在股息调整后的年化收益率为20.1%至10.2%，优于标普500。据我所知，在这56年的时间里，没有其他在世的投资者能比得上巴菲特。</blockquote></p><p> To calculate the role luck may have played in performance, I conducted the following Monte Carlo simulation: What if, in each of the next 15 calendar years, Buffett’s alpha (return relative to the S&amp;P 500) would be picked at random from his actual alphas over the past 56 years? And what if this experiment was run 10,000 times?</p><p><blockquote>为了计算运气在业绩中可能扮演的角色，我进行了下面的蒙特卡罗模拟：如果在接下来的15个日历年中，巴菲特的阿尔法（相对于标普500的回报率）都是从巴菲特过去56年的实际阿尔法中随机挑选出来的，会怎么样？如果这个实验运行10,000次会怎么样？</blockquote></p><p> To put what I found in perspective, consider that Berkshire in fact has had negative alpha in five of the past 15 years. In 24.4% of my simulations, the company’s stock had negative alpha in at least that many years. One-out-of-four odds suggest there is nothing particularly unusual about the number of years in which the company’s stock actually has had negative alpha.</p><p><blockquote>为了正确看待我的发现，请考虑一下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司实际上在过去15年中有5年的阿尔法值为负。在我24.4%的模拟中，该公司的股票至少在那么多年里都有负阿尔法。四分之一的几率表明，该公司股票实际阿尔法值为负的年份并没有什么特别不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, it was less likely in my simulations for Berkshire to have a negative alpha over the entire 15-year period. But it still did happen — 2% of the time. So it’s possible that Buffett’s negative alpha over the past 15 years is due to nothing more than bad luck.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，在我的模拟中，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在整个15年期间出现负阿尔法的可能性较小。但它仍然发生了——2%的时间。因此，巴菲特过去15年的负阿尔法可能只不过是运气不好。</blockquote></p><p> My vote is to continue to give Buffett the benefit of the doubt. There is no reason to pay less attention to his shareholder letter this year than in any prior year.</p><p><blockquote>我的投票是继续假定巴菲特是无辜的。今年没有理由比往年更少关注他的股东信。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>‘Buffett Indicator’ is alarmingly bearish and this year’s Berkshire shareholder letter could reveal why<blockquote>“巴菲特指标”令人震惊地看跌，今年的伯克希尔股东信可能会揭示原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n‘Buffett Indicator’ is alarmingly bearish and this year’s Berkshire shareholder letter could reveal why<blockquote>“巴菲特指标”令人震惊地看跌，今年的伯克希尔股东信可能会揭示原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 13:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway’s trailing 15-year return is now below the S&amp;P 500</p><p><blockquote>Berkshire Hathaway过去15年的回报率目前低于标普500</blockquote></p><p> Should investors continue to give Warren Buffett the benefit of the doubt?</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该继续相信沃伦·巴菲特吗？</blockquote></p><p> That is the big question for Berkshire Hathaway&nbsp;shareholders as they anticipate Buffett’s annual letter to company shareholders, which is expected to be released on Feb. 27. Berkshire’s annual meeting of shareholders, normally held in Omaha, Neb. but this year remotely, will be another occasion in which Buffett can address this question. The shareholder meeting is scheduled for May 1.</p><p><blockquote>对于伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股东来说，这是一个大问题，因为他们预计巴菲特将于2月27日发布致公司股东的年度信。伯克希尔的年度股东大会通常在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行。但今年将是巴菲特解决这个问题的又一次机会。股东大会定于5月1日举行。</blockquote></p><p> This question wouldn’t be so urgent if 2020 — when Berkshire stock lagged the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 16 percentage points — was just an aberration. But it isn’t. The stock lagged the S&amp;P 500 by even more in 2019 (20 percentage points), and is now behind the S&amp;P 500 over the trailing five-, 10- and 15-year periods. Those are long-enough periods to satisfy at least many investors’ definition of the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如果2020年——伯克希尔股价落后标普500 16个百分点——只是一个异常，这个问题就不会那么紧迫。但事实并非如此。该股在2019年落后于标普500更多（20个百分点），目前在过去5年、10年和15年期间落后于标普500。这些期限足够长，至少可以满足许多投资者对长期的定义。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea whether Buffett will address the market-lagging performance of Berkshire stock in his letter or at the company’s annual meeting. My request for comment from the company has gone unanswered. But I would be surprised if he doesn’t address it, and in the rest of this column I want to provide some background information that will help us understand the significance of what he may have to say.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道巴菲特是否会在信中或在公司年会上谈到伯克希尔股票落后于市场的表现。我向该公司提出的置评请求没有得到答复。但如果他不解决这个问题，我会感到惊讶，在本专栏的其余部分，我想提供一些背景信息，帮助我们理解他可能要说的话的意义。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Will Buffett double down on his bearish stock market outlook?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特会加倍看跌股市前景吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Pay close attention to whether Buffett doubles down on the bearish posture with which he has approached the stock market in recent years. It’s largely because of that bearishness that Berkshire stock has lagged. At the beginning of last year’s third quarter, for example, the company was sitting on a huge pile of cash — $147 billion, in fact.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注巴菲特是否会加倍押注他近年来对待股市的看跌姿态。伯克希尔股票的表现落后很大程度上是因为这种看跌情绪。例如，去年第三季度初，该公司坐拥巨额现金——事实上为1,470亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given the company’s conservative posture, it wouldn’t take much of a drop in the overall market for Berkshire stock to once again be ahead of the S&amp;P 500 over the trailing 15 years. In fact, I calculate that all it would take would be for the S&amp;P 500 to perform at least 3% worse than the company’s stock, which is quite likely to occur in a bear market. During the 2007-2009 bear market that accompanied the Great Financial Crisis, for example, Berkshire stock beat the S&amp;P 500 by a cumulative 15 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于伯克希尔的保守姿态，在过去15年里，伯克希尔的股票不需要整体市场大幅下跌就能再次领先于标普500。事实上，我计算出，标普500的表现至少比公司股票差3%，这在熊市中很可能发生。例如，在2007-2009年伴随大金融危机的熊市期间，伯克希尔股价累计跑赢标普500 15个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> My guess is that Buffett will indeed double down on his bearishness. Consider the story told by the ratio of the stock market’s total market cap to U.S. GDP — the so-called Buffett Indicator. It got its name two decades ago when Buffett said that the ratio is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”</p><p><blockquote>我的猜测是，巴菲特确实会加倍看跌。考虑一下股市总市值与美国GDP的比率——所谓的巴菲特指标——所讲述的故事。二十年前，巴菲特表示，该比率“可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值水平的最佳单一指标”，因此得名。</blockquote></p><p> This ratio is now higher (and therefore more bearish) than at any other time in U.S. market history, higher even than where it stood at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble — as you can see from the chart below.</p><p><blockquote>这一比率现在比美国市场历史上的任何其他时期都要高（因此更加看跌），甚至高于20世纪90年代末互联网泡沫顶部的水平——如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588c144cbfb44b59031247a976215db3\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>How big of a role has luck played?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>运气起了多大的作用？</b></blockquote></p><p> Another big question as you decide whether to continue giving Buffett the benefit of the doubt: Could mere bad luck account for Berkshire’s market-lagging return? That’s an especially important question to ask, since the stock’s long-term record is nothing short of outstanding — even taking the past 15 years into account. Since 1965, Berkshire stock has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 on a dividend-adjusted basis by the annualized margin of 20.1% to 10.2%. I’m aware of no other investor alive today who has come even close to doing as well as Buffett over this 56-year period.</p><p><blockquote>当你决定是否继续相信巴菲特时，另一个大问题是：仅仅是运气不好就能解释伯克希尔落后于市场的回报吗？这是一个特别重要的问题，因为即使考虑到过去15年，该股的长期记录也非常出色。自1965年以来，伯克希尔股票在股息调整后的年化收益率为20.1%至10.2%，优于标普500。据我所知，在这56年的时间里，没有其他在世的投资者能比得上巴菲特。</blockquote></p><p> To calculate the role luck may have played in performance, I conducted the following Monte Carlo simulation: What if, in each of the next 15 calendar years, Buffett’s alpha (return relative to the S&amp;P 500) would be picked at random from his actual alphas over the past 56 years? And what if this experiment was run 10,000 times?</p><p><blockquote>为了计算运气在业绩中可能扮演的角色，我进行了下面的蒙特卡罗模拟：如果在接下来的15个日历年中，巴菲特的阿尔法（相对于标普500的回报率）都是从巴菲特过去56年的实际阿尔法中随机挑选出来的，会怎么样？如果这个实验运行10,000次会怎么样？</blockquote></p><p> To put what I found in perspective, consider that Berkshire in fact has had negative alpha in five of the past 15 years. In 24.4% of my simulations, the company’s stock had negative alpha in at least that many years. One-out-of-four odds suggest there is nothing particularly unusual about the number of years in which the company’s stock actually has had negative alpha.</p><p><blockquote>为了正确看待我的发现，请考虑一下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司实际上在过去15年中有5年的阿尔法值为负。在我24.4%的模拟中，该公司的股票至少在那么多年里都有负阿尔法。四分之一的几率表明，该公司股票实际阿尔法值为负的年份并没有什么特别不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, it was less likely in my simulations for Berkshire to have a negative alpha over the entire 15-year period. But it still did happen — 2% of the time. So it’s possible that Buffett’s negative alpha over the past 15 years is due to nothing more than bad luck.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，在我的模拟中，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在整个15年期间出现负阿尔法的可能性较小。但它仍然发生了——2%的时间。因此，巴菲特过去15年的负阿尔法可能只不过是运气不好。</blockquote></p><p> My vote is to continue to give Buffett the benefit of the doubt. There is no reason to pay less attention to his shareholder letter this year than in any prior year.</p><p><blockquote>我的投票是继续假定巴菲特是无辜的。今年没有理由比往年更少关注他的股东信。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-indicator-is-alarmingly-bearish-and-this-years-berkshire-shareholder-letter-could-reveal-why-11613780296?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-indicator-is-alarmingly-bearish-and-this-years-berkshire-shareholder-letter-could-reveal-why-11613780296?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1175924985","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway’s trailing 15-year return is now below the S&P 500\nShould investors continue to give Warren Buffett the benefit of the doubt?\nThat is the big question for Berkshire Hathaway shareholders as they anticipate Buffett’s annual letter to company shareholders, which is expected to be released on Feb. 27. Berkshire’s annual meeting of shareholders, normally held in Omaha, Neb. but this year remotely, will be another occasion in which Buffett can address this question. The shareholder meeting is scheduled for May 1.\nThis question wouldn’t be so urgent if 2020 — when Berkshire stock lagged the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points — was just an aberration. But it isn’t. The stock lagged the S&P 500 by even more in 2019 (20 percentage points), and is now behind the S&P 500 over the trailing five-, 10- and 15-year periods. Those are long-enough periods to satisfy at least many investors’ definition of the long term.\nI have no idea whether Buffett will address the market-lagging performance of Berkshire stock in his letter or at the company’s annual meeting. My request for comment from the company has gone unanswered. But I would be surprised if he doesn’t address it, and in the rest of this column I want to provide some background information that will help us understand the significance of what he may have to say.\nWill Buffett double down on his bearish stock market outlook?\nPay close attention to whether Buffett doubles down on the bearish posture with which he has approached the stock market in recent years. It’s largely because of that bearishness that Berkshire stock has lagged. At the beginning of last year’s third quarter, for example, the company was sitting on a huge pile of cash — $147 billion, in fact.\nGiven the company’s conservative posture, it wouldn’t take much of a drop in the overall market for Berkshire stock to once again be ahead of the S&P 500 over the trailing 15 years. In fact, I calculate that all it would take would be for the S&P 500 to perform at least 3% worse than the company’s stock, which is quite likely to occur in a bear market. During the 2007-2009 bear market that accompanied the Great Financial Crisis, for example, Berkshire stock beat the S&P 500 by a cumulative 15 percentage points.\nMy guess is that Buffett will indeed double down on his bearishness. Consider the story told by the ratio of the stock market’s total market cap to U.S. GDP — the so-called Buffett Indicator. It got its name two decades ago when Buffett said that the ratio is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”\nThis ratio is now higher (and therefore more bearish) than at any other time in U.S. market history, higher even than where it stood at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble — as you can see from the chart below.\n\nHow big of a role has luck played?\nAnother big question as you decide whether to continue giving Buffett the benefit of the doubt: Could mere bad luck account for Berkshire’s market-lagging return? That’s an especially important question to ask, since the stock’s long-term record is nothing short of outstanding — even taking the past 15 years into account. Since 1965, Berkshire stock has outperformed the S&P 500 on a dividend-adjusted basis by the annualized margin of 20.1% to 10.2%. I’m aware of no other investor alive today who has come even close to doing as well as Buffett over this 56-year period.\nTo calculate the role luck may have played in performance, I conducted the following Monte Carlo simulation: What if, in each of the next 15 calendar years, Buffett’s alpha (return relative to the S&P 500) would be picked at random from his actual alphas over the past 56 years? And what if this experiment was run 10,000 times?\nTo put what I found in perspective, consider that Berkshire in fact has had negative alpha in five of the past 15 years. In 24.4% of my simulations, the company’s stock had negative alpha in at least that many years. One-out-of-four odds suggest there is nothing particularly unusual about the number of years in which the company’s stock actually has had negative alpha.\nTo be sure, it was less likely in my simulations for Berkshire to have a negative alpha over the entire 15-year period. But it still did happen — 2% of the time. So it’s possible that Buffett’s negative alpha over the past 15 years is due to nothing more than bad luck.\nMy vote is to continue to give Buffett the benefit of the doubt. There is no reason to pay less attention to his shareholder letter this year than in any prior year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360800378,"gmtCreate":1613878318794,"gmtModify":1634551989517,"author":{"id":"3574240097120980","authorId":"3574240097120980","name":"Jfzarn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574240097120980","authorIdStr":"3574240097120980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please comment on my post. 🙏","listText":"Please comment on my post. 🙏","text":"Please comment on my post. 🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360800378","repostId":"1179306002","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}