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2021-03-25

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2021-06-26

Nice

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2021-03-19

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2021-03-08

Hahahaha well said

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2021-06-12

Comment and like thx

Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>

2021-03-23

Well well

Microsoft in talks to acquire Discord for more than $10 billion: Bloomberg News<blockquote>微软正在洽谈以超过100亿美元收购Discord：彭博新闻</blockquote>

2021-06-06

Nice

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2021-05-02

Nice

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2021-04-10

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2021-02-28

Noice

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am back","listText":"I am back","text":"I am back","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177713426","repostId":"2154397599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158565754,"gmtCreate":1625156951978,"gmtModify":1631889676962,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158565754","repostId":"1102868765","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102868765","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625153533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102868765?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock Price: How It Can Climb Up To 30%<blockquote>亚马逊股价：如何攀升至30%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102868765","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Prime Day is over, but Amazon’s growth story continues. 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Wall Street did not seem overlyconfidentthat this year’s event will be a game changer for Amazon stock, which may explain why share price has remained stuck trading around $3,450 since mid-June.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的“夏季黑色星期五”Prime Day来了又走了。华尔街似乎并不太相信今年的事件将改变亚马逊股票的游戏规则，这或许可以解释为什么股价自6月中旬以来一直停留在3,450美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> Still, a few analysts believe that AMZN could still climb 30% from current levels. Following the important sales event on the e-commerce giant’s calendar, the Amazon Maven looks at the most recent opinions issued by Wall Street experts and assesses the bull case.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师认为AMZN仍可能较当前水平上涨30%。在这家电子商务巨头日历上的重要销售活动之后，亚马逊专家会查看华尔街专家发表的最新意见，并评估牛市情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da2e16a19c3807906131ed6e06652087\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"698\"><span>Figure 1: Amazon's logo.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：亚马逊的logo。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Strength in e-commerce and cloud</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电子商务和云领域的实力</b></blockquote></p><p> At the highest level, Amazon makes money through two distinct businesses: e-commerce and cloud. Good news for the Seattle-based company and its shareholders, these industries have been growing fast lately – and Amazon enjoys an enviable position of market leadership in both.</p><p><blockquote>在最高层面上，亚马逊通过两个截然不同的业务赚钱：电子商务和云。对于这家总部位于西雅图的公司及其股东来说，这是个好消息，这些行业最近增长迅速，而亚马逊在这两个行业都享有令人羡慕的市场领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America, whose analyst believes that Amazon stock can rise 27% from here,seems to know at least one key ingredient&nbsp;to Amazon’s success on the e-commerce side: its delivery system. Justin Post thinks that Amazon will grow its fulfillment footprint by 40% this year alone, the equivalent of Walmart’s entire distribution center space.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的分析师认为亚马逊股价可以从这里上涨27%，该银行似乎至少知道亚马逊在电子商务方面取得成功的一个关键因素：其配送系统。贾斯汀·波斯特认为，仅今年一年，亚马逊的配送足迹就将增长40%，相当于沃尔玛的整个配送中心空间。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Post’s research aligns with the findings of Jefferies’ Brent Till, who has a $4,200 price target on AMZN.According&nbsp;to him, Amazon’s fulfilment capacity should rise about 50% in the next one to two years. The expanded infrastructure could allow Amazon to move to breakeven same-day delivery, and to compete better by bringing last-mile delivery in-house.</p><p><blockquote>波斯特的研究与杰富瑞(Jefferies)的布伦特·蒂尔(Brent Till)的发现一致，蒂尔对亚马逊的目标价为4,200美元。据他称，亚马逊的履行能力在未来一到两年内应该会增长约50%。扩大后的基础设施可以让亚马逊转向盈亏平衡的当日送达，并通过将最后一英里送达内部来更好地竞争。</blockquote></p><p> The improved distribution system may help Amazon with another of its businesses that could use a boost: groceries. Loop Capitalreportsthat over 50% of Prime subscribers order groceries online, of which three-fourths use either Amazon or Whole Foods (an Amazon subsidiary) only. Some of the perceived issues with fresh produce availability could be addressed with a better delivery network.</p><p><blockquote>改进的分销系统可能会帮助亚马逊发展另一项可能需要提振的业务：食品杂货。Loop Capital报告称，超过50%的Prime订户在线订购杂货，其中四分之三仅使用亚马逊或全食超市（亚马逊子公司）。一些与新鲜农产品供应有关的问题可以通过更好的配送网络来解决。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, cloud has not been a hot topic of conversation among analysts lately. But&nbsp;the Amazon Maven recently pointed out&nbsp;how the cloud infrastructure space (IaaS) grew at a dizzying 41% pace in 2020 – and Amazon remains the undisputed king of cloud, controlling 40% of the IaaS market.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，云最近并不是分析师谈论的热门话题。但亚马逊专家最近指出，云基础设施领域（IaaS）在2020年以令人眼花缭乱的41%的速度增长——亚马逊仍然是无可争议的云之王，控制着40%的IaaS市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not stellar, not terrible either</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不出色，也不可怕</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, and despite Amazon’s Prime Day 2021 not being a center-stage argument in most analysts’ investment theses, one bull still sees reasons to be excited. Evercore ISI has a $4,500 price target on AMZN, suggesting 30% upside from end-of-June share price.</p><p><blockquote>最后，尽管亚马逊2021年Prime Day并不是大多数分析师投资论点的中心论点，但一位多头仍然认为有理由感到兴奋。Evercore ISI对AMZN的目标价为4,500美元，较6月底股价上涨30%。</blockquote></p><p> The research shop noted that Amazon sold more than 250 million items on Prime Day, which represents a compounded annual increase of more than 20% over 2019. Considering that a pandemic and a flash recession took place within these past 24 months, Prime Day unit sales growth did not look bad at all.</p><p><blockquote>该研究机构指出，亚马逊在Prime Day售出了超过2.5亿件商品，比2019年复合年增长率超过20%。考虑到过去24个月内发生了大流行和经济衰退，Prime Day单位销售增长看起来一点也不差。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock Price: How It Can Climb Up To 30%<blockquote>亚马逊股价：如何攀升至30%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock Price: How It Can Climb Up To 30%<blockquote>亚马逊股价：如何攀升至30%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 23:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Prime Day is over, but Amazon’s growth story continues. The Amazon Maven scans the latest Wall Street research reports and explains how some analysts see Amazon stock rising another 30%.</p><p><blockquote>Prime Day已经结束，但亚马逊的增长故事仍在继续。亚马逊专家扫描了最新的华尔街研究报告，并解释了一些分析师如何看待亚马逊股票再上涨30%。</blockquote></p><p> Prime Day,Amazon’s “summer Black Friday”, has come and gone. Wall Street did not seem overlyconfidentthat this year’s event will be a game changer for Amazon stock, which may explain why share price has remained stuck trading around $3,450 since mid-June.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的“夏季黑色星期五”Prime Day来了又走了。华尔街似乎并不太相信今年的事件将改变亚马逊股票的游戏规则，这或许可以解释为什么股价自6月中旬以来一直停留在3,450美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> Still, a few analysts believe that AMZN could still climb 30% from current levels. Following the important sales event on the e-commerce giant’s calendar, the Amazon Maven looks at the most recent opinions issued by Wall Street experts and assesses the bull case.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师认为AMZN仍可能较当前水平上涨30%。在这家电子商务巨头日历上的重要销售活动之后，亚马逊专家会查看华尔街专家发表的最新意见，并评估牛市情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da2e16a19c3807906131ed6e06652087\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"698\"><span>Figure 1: Amazon's logo.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：亚马逊的logo。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Strength in e-commerce and cloud</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电子商务和云领域的实力</b></blockquote></p><p> At the highest level, Amazon makes money through two distinct businesses: e-commerce and cloud. Good news for the Seattle-based company and its shareholders, these industries have been growing fast lately – and Amazon enjoys an enviable position of market leadership in both.</p><p><blockquote>在最高层面上，亚马逊通过两个截然不同的业务赚钱：电子商务和云。对于这家总部位于西雅图的公司及其股东来说，这是个好消息，这些行业最近增长迅速，而亚马逊在这两个行业都享有令人羡慕的市场领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America, whose analyst believes that Amazon stock can rise 27% from here,seems to know at least one key ingredient&nbsp;to Amazon’s success on the e-commerce side: its delivery system. Justin Post thinks that Amazon will grow its fulfillment footprint by 40% this year alone, the equivalent of Walmart’s entire distribution center space.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的分析师认为亚马逊股价可以从这里上涨27%，该银行似乎至少知道亚马逊在电子商务方面取得成功的一个关键因素：其配送系统。贾斯汀·波斯特认为，仅今年一年，亚马逊的配送足迹就将增长40%，相当于沃尔玛的整个配送中心空间。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Post’s research aligns with the findings of Jefferies’ Brent Till, who has a $4,200 price target on AMZN.According&nbsp;to him, Amazon’s fulfilment capacity should rise about 50% in the next one to two years. The expanded infrastructure could allow Amazon to move to breakeven same-day delivery, and to compete better by bringing last-mile delivery in-house.</p><p><blockquote>波斯特的研究与杰富瑞(Jefferies)的布伦特·蒂尔(Brent Till)的发现一致，蒂尔对亚马逊的目标价为4,200美元。据他称，亚马逊的履行能力在未来一到两年内应该会增长约50%。扩大后的基础设施可以让亚马逊转向盈亏平衡的当日送达，并通过将最后一英里送达内部来更好地竞争。</blockquote></p><p> The improved distribution system may help Amazon with another of its businesses that could use a boost: groceries. Loop Capitalreportsthat over 50% of Prime subscribers order groceries online, of which three-fourths use either Amazon or Whole Foods (an Amazon subsidiary) only. Some of the perceived issues with fresh produce availability could be addressed with a better delivery network.</p><p><blockquote>改进的分销系统可能会帮助亚马逊发展另一项可能需要提振的业务：食品杂货。Loop Capital报告称，超过50%的Prime订户在线订购杂货，其中四分之三仅使用亚马逊或全食超市（亚马逊子公司）。一些与新鲜农产品供应有关的问题可以通过更好的配送网络来解决。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, cloud has not been a hot topic of conversation among analysts lately. But&nbsp;the Amazon Maven recently pointed out&nbsp;how the cloud infrastructure space (IaaS) grew at a dizzying 41% pace in 2020 – and Amazon remains the undisputed king of cloud, controlling 40% of the IaaS market.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，云最近并不是分析师谈论的热门话题。但亚马逊专家最近指出，云基础设施领域（IaaS）在2020年以令人眼花缭乱的41%的速度增长——亚马逊仍然是无可争议的云之王，控制着40%的IaaS市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not stellar, not terrible either</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不出色，也不可怕</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, and despite Amazon’s Prime Day 2021 not being a center-stage argument in most analysts’ investment theses, one bull still sees reasons to be excited. Evercore ISI has a $4,500 price target on AMZN, suggesting 30% upside from end-of-June share price.</p><p><blockquote>最后，尽管亚马逊2021年Prime Day并不是大多数分析师投资论点的中心论点，但一位多头仍然认为有理由感到兴奋。Evercore ISI对AMZN的目标价为4,500美元，较6月底股价上涨30%。</blockquote></p><p> The research shop noted that Amazon sold more than 250 million items on Prime Day, which represents a compounded annual increase of more than 20% over 2019. Considering that a pandemic and a flash recession took place within these past 24 months, Prime Day unit sales growth did not look bad at all.</p><p><blockquote>该研究机构指出，亚马逊在Prime Day售出了超过2.5亿件商品，比2019年复合年增长率超过20%。考虑到过去24个月内发生了大流行和经济衰退，Prime Day单位销售增长看起来一点也不差。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/amazon-stock-price-how-it-can-climb-up-to-30\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/amazon-stock-price-how-it-can-climb-up-to-30","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102868765","content_text":"Prime Day is over, but Amazon’s growth story continues. The Amazon Maven scans the latest Wall Street research reports and explains how some analysts see Amazon stock rising another 30%.\nPrime Day,Amazon’s “summer Black Friday”, has come and gone. Wall Street did not seem overlyconfidentthat this year’s event will be a game changer for Amazon stock, which may explain why share price has remained stuck trading around $3,450 since mid-June.\nStill, a few analysts believe that AMZN could still climb 30% from current levels. Following the important sales event on the e-commerce giant’s calendar, the Amazon Maven looks at the most recent opinions issued by Wall Street experts and assesses the bull case.\nFigure 1: Amazon's logo.\nStrength in e-commerce and cloud\nAt the highest level, Amazon makes money through two distinct businesses: e-commerce and cloud. Good news for the Seattle-based company and its shareholders, these industries have been growing fast lately – and Amazon enjoys an enviable position of market leadership in both.\nBank of America, whose analyst believes that Amazon stock can rise 27% from here,seems to know at least one key ingredient to Amazon’s success on the e-commerce side: its delivery system. Justin Post thinks that Amazon will grow its fulfillment footprint by 40% this year alone, the equivalent of Walmart’s entire distribution center space.\nMr. Post’s research aligns with the findings of Jefferies’ Brent Till, who has a $4,200 price target on AMZN.According to him, Amazon’s fulfilment capacity should rise about 50% in the next one to two years. The expanded infrastructure could allow Amazon to move to breakeven same-day delivery, and to compete better by bringing last-mile delivery in-house.\nThe improved distribution system may help Amazon with another of its businesses that could use a boost: groceries. Loop Capitalreportsthat over 50% of Prime subscribers order groceries online, of which three-fourths use either Amazon or Whole Foods (an Amazon subsidiary) only. Some of the perceived issues with fresh produce availability could be addressed with a better delivery network.\nOn the other hand, cloud has not been a hot topic of conversation among analysts lately. But the Amazon Maven recently pointed out how the cloud infrastructure space (IaaS) grew at a dizzying 41% pace in 2020 – and Amazon remains the undisputed king of cloud, controlling 40% of the IaaS market.\nNot stellar, not terrible either\nLastly, and despite Amazon’s Prime Day 2021 not being a center-stage argument in most analysts’ investment theses, one bull still sees reasons to be excited. Evercore ISI has a $4,500 price target on AMZN, suggesting 30% upside from end-of-June share price.\nThe research shop noted that Amazon sold more than 250 million items on Prime Day, which represents a compounded annual increase of more than 20% over 2019. Considering that a pandemic and a flash recession took place within these past 24 months, Prime Day unit sales growth did not look bad at all.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127925803,"gmtCreate":1624827733402,"gmtModify":1631889676964,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127925803","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124207923,"gmtCreate":1624765380262,"gmtModify":1631889676966,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124207923","repostId":"2146000990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124204638,"gmtCreate":1624765362324,"gmtModify":1631889676968,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124204638","repostId":"2146000990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125502502,"gmtCreate":1624678442106,"gmtModify":1631889676970,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125502502","repostId":"1100072036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121466540,"gmtCreate":1624489849880,"gmtModify":1631889676972,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121466540","repostId":"1104273824","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123474595,"gmtCreate":1624437010717,"gmtModify":1631889676977,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123474595","repostId":"1140539864","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140539864","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624431752,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140539864?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 15:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Virgin Galactic, Nikola, and Bloom Energy Stocks Jumped Tuesday<blockquote>为什么维珍银河、尼古拉和布鲁姆能源股票周二上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140539864","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Names with high short interest continue to be the focus of retail traders hoping for a short squeeze","content":"<p>  Names with high short interest continue to be the focus of retail traders hoping for a short squeeze.  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote>空头兴趣高的公司仍然是希望轧空的散户交易者关注的焦点。<b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> The stocks of companies that could make potential short squeeze candidates continue to be the focus of many retail traders. Tuesday, three speculative names with high short interest are jumping higher. Shares of space tourism company<b>Virgin Galactic Holdings</b>(NYSE:SPCE), electric vehicle hopeful<b>Nikola</b>(NASDAQ:NKLA), and hydrogen fuel cell maker<b>Bloom Energy</b>(NYSE:BE)all jumped Tuesday. As of 3:35 p.m. EDT:</p><p><blockquote>可能成为潜在轧空候选者的公司股票仍然是许多散户交易者关注的焦点。周二，三家空头兴趣较高的投机公司股价走高。太空旅游公司股份<b>维珍银河控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SPCE），电动汽车充满希望<b>尼古拉</b>（纳斯达克：NKLA）和氢燃料电池制造商<b>布鲁姆能源</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BE）周二全部上涨。截至下午3:35美国东部时间：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic was up 9.2%</li>  <li>Nikola was up 7.7%</li>  <li>Bloom Energy was up 4.5%</li> </ul> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>维珍银河上涨9.2%</li><li>尼古拉上涨7.7%</li><li>布鲁姆能源上涨4.5%</li></ul><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> With its share price trading around $40, it's notable that the July 16, 2021 $100 call options on Virgin Galactic had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options Tuesday, according to Yahoo! Finance. Along with trading volume already more than double the 60-day daily average, this implies traders are hoping shares surge more than 150% to record highs in just the next three weeks.</p><p><blockquote>据雅虎称，由于其股价交易价格约为40美元，值得注意的是，维珍银河2021年7月16日发行的100美元看涨期权期权周二的隐含波动率是所有股票期权中最高的。金融。随着交易量已经是60天日平均水平的两倍多，这意味着交易员希望股价在未来三周内飙升150%以上，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the thinking of traders in Virgin Galactic call options may be that high short interest in the stock could set shares up to move higher. As of late May, 28% of the public share float was sold short. Retail traders likely are hoping for ashort squeezesimilar to what occurred in other meme stocks. Similarly, Nikola and Bloom Energy had a respective 32% and 12% of their floats sold short, according to data from MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河看涨期权期权交易员的部分想法可能是，对该股的高空头兴趣可能会推动股价走高。截至5月底，28%的公众流通股被卖空。散户交易者可能希望出现类似于其他模因股票发生的情况的空头挤压。同样，根据MarketWatch的数据，Nikola和Bloom Energy分别有32%和12%的流通股被卖空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Each of these stocks is speculative, and Virgin Galactic and Nikola aren't yet even bringing in revenue. Nothing of note was announced by these companies Tuesday to explain the stock movement. Nikola did file a Securities and Exchange Commission statement registering more than 18 million shares for potential sale. But that was related to capital it recently raised through a private deal, and any proceeds from the newly registered shares would be going to the stockholder, and not the company.</p><p><blockquote>这些股票都是投机性的，维珍银河和尼古拉甚至还没有带来收入。这些公司周二没有宣布任何值得注意的消息来解释股价走势。尼古拉确实向美国证券交易委员会提交了一份声明，登记了超过1800万股可能出售的股票。但这与它最近通过私人交易筹集的资本有关，新注册股票的任何收益都将归股东所有，而不是公司所有。</blockquote></p><p> Investors may be interested in Bloom Energy Tuesday because of a quarterly financial release from fellow hydrogen fuel cell technology company<b>Plug Power</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:PLUG).That report was a mix of strong sales growthoffset by continued net losses from that company. A growing hydrogen economy would be good news for Bloom, and company management expressed optimism in its recently released first quarter report for the period ended March 31, 2021. Revenue growth was also strong, and Bloom Energy CFO Greg Cameron said in a statement, \"We are confident in our guidance and are on the way to being a $1 billion revenue business that is well positioned for future growth.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者周二可能会对Bloom Energy感兴趣，因为氢燃料电池技术公司发布了季度财务报告<b>普拉格能源</b>（纳斯达克：插头）。该报告的结果是强劲的销售增长被该公司持续的净亏损所抵消。不断增长的氢经济对Bloom来说是个好消息，公司管理层在最近发布的截至2021年3月31日的第一季度报告中表达了乐观情绪。收入增长也很强劲，Bloom Energy首席财务官格雷格·卡梅伦(Greg Cameron)在一份声明中表示，“我们对我们的指导充满信心，并有望成为收入10亿美元的业务，为未来的增长做好了准备。”</blockquote></p><p> But Tuesday's stock action seems more likely influenced by retail traders looking to turn high short interest into a rising stock price if shorts areforced to cover sold shares. For long-term investors, this type of move isn't critical to an investing thesis -- even for speculative stocks like these.</p><p><blockquote>但周二的股票走势似乎更有可能受到散户交易者的影响，如果空头被迫回补已售股票，他们希望将高空头兴趣转化为股价上涨。对于长期投资者来说，这种类型的举动对于投资论点并不重要——即使对于像这样的投机性股票也是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Virgin Galactic, Nikola, and Bloom Energy Stocks Jumped Tuesday<blockquote>为什么维珍银河、尼古拉和布鲁姆能源股票周二上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Virgin Galactic, Nikola, and Bloom Energy Stocks Jumped Tuesday<blockquote>为什么维珍银河、尼古拉和布鲁姆能源股票周二上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 15:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Names with high short interest continue to be the focus of retail traders hoping for a short squeeze.  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote>空头兴趣高的公司仍然是希望轧空的散户交易者关注的焦点。<b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> The stocks of companies that could make potential short squeeze candidates continue to be the focus of many retail traders. Tuesday, three speculative names with high short interest are jumping higher. Shares of space tourism company<b>Virgin Galactic Holdings</b>(NYSE:SPCE), electric vehicle hopeful<b>Nikola</b>(NASDAQ:NKLA), and hydrogen fuel cell maker<b>Bloom Energy</b>(NYSE:BE)all jumped Tuesday. As of 3:35 p.m. EDT:</p><p><blockquote>可能成为潜在轧空候选者的公司股票仍然是许多散户交易者关注的焦点。周二，三家空头兴趣较高的投机公司股价走高。太空旅游公司股份<b>维珍银河控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SPCE），电动汽车充满希望<b>尼古拉</b>（纳斯达克：NKLA）和氢燃料电池制造商<b>布鲁姆能源</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BE）周二全部上涨。截至下午3:35美国东部时间：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic was up 9.2%</li>  <li>Nikola was up 7.7%</li>  <li>Bloom Energy was up 4.5%</li> </ul> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>维珍银河上涨9.2%</li><li>尼古拉上涨7.7%</li><li>布鲁姆能源上涨4.5%</li></ul><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> With its share price trading around $40, it's notable that the July 16, 2021 $100 call options on Virgin Galactic had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options Tuesday, according to Yahoo! Finance. Along with trading volume already more than double the 60-day daily average, this implies traders are hoping shares surge more than 150% to record highs in just the next three weeks.</p><p><blockquote>据雅虎称，由于其股价交易价格约为40美元，值得注意的是，维珍银河2021年7月16日发行的100美元看涨期权期权周二的隐含波动率是所有股票期权中最高的。金融。随着交易量已经是60天日平均水平的两倍多，这意味着交易员希望股价在未来三周内飙升150%以上，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the thinking of traders in Virgin Galactic call options may be that high short interest in the stock could set shares up to move higher. As of late May, 28% of the public share float was sold short. Retail traders likely are hoping for ashort squeezesimilar to what occurred in other meme stocks. Similarly, Nikola and Bloom Energy had a respective 32% and 12% of their floats sold short, according to data from MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河看涨期权期权交易员的部分想法可能是，对该股的高空头兴趣可能会推动股价走高。截至5月底，28%的公众流通股被卖空。散户交易者可能希望出现类似于其他模因股票发生的情况的空头挤压。同样，根据MarketWatch的数据，Nikola和Bloom Energy分别有32%和12%的流通股被卖空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Each of these stocks is speculative, and Virgin Galactic and Nikola aren't yet even bringing in revenue. Nothing of note was announced by these companies Tuesday to explain the stock movement. Nikola did file a Securities and Exchange Commission statement registering more than 18 million shares for potential sale. But that was related to capital it recently raised through a private deal, and any proceeds from the newly registered shares would be going to the stockholder, and not the company.</p><p><blockquote>这些股票都是投机性的，维珍银河和尼古拉甚至还没有带来收入。这些公司周二没有宣布任何值得注意的消息来解释股价走势。尼古拉确实向美国证券交易委员会提交了一份声明，登记了超过1800万股可能出售的股票。但这与它最近通过私人交易筹集的资本有关，新注册股票的任何收益都将归股东所有，而不是公司所有。</blockquote></p><p> Investors may be interested in Bloom Energy Tuesday because of a quarterly financial release from fellow hydrogen fuel cell technology company<b>Plug Power</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:PLUG).That report was a mix of strong sales growthoffset by continued net losses from that company. A growing hydrogen economy would be good news for Bloom, and company management expressed optimism in its recently released first quarter report for the period ended March 31, 2021. Revenue growth was also strong, and Bloom Energy CFO Greg Cameron said in a statement, \"We are confident in our guidance and are on the way to being a $1 billion revenue business that is well positioned for future growth.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者周二可能会对Bloom Energy感兴趣，因为氢燃料电池技术公司发布了季度财务报告<b>普拉格能源</b>（纳斯达克：插头）。该报告的结果是强劲的销售增长被该公司持续的净亏损所抵消。不断增长的氢经济对Bloom来说是个好消息，公司管理层在最近发布的截至2021年3月31日的第一季度报告中表达了乐观情绪。收入增长也很强劲，Bloom Energy首席财务官格雷格·卡梅伦(Greg Cameron)在一份声明中表示，“我们对我们的指导充满信心，并有望成为收入10亿美元的业务，为未来的增长做好了准备。”</blockquote></p><p> But Tuesday's stock action seems more likely influenced by retail traders looking to turn high short interest into a rising stock price if shorts areforced to cover sold shares. For long-term investors, this type of move isn't critical to an investing thesis -- even for speculative stocks like these.</p><p><blockquote>但周二的股票走势似乎更有可能受到散户交易者的影响，如果空头被迫回补已售股票，他们希望将高空头兴趣转化为股价上涨。对于长期投资者来说，这种类型的举动对于投资论点并不重要——即使对于像这样的投机性股票也是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/22/why-virgin-galactic-nikola-and-bloom-energy-stocks/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BE":"Bloom Energy Corp","SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/22/why-virgin-galactic-nikola-and-bloom-energy-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140539864","content_text":"Names with high short interest continue to be the focus of retail traders hoping for a short squeeze.\n\nWhat happened\nThe stocks of companies that could make potential short squeeze candidates continue to be the focus of many retail traders. Tuesday, three speculative names with high short interest are jumping higher. Shares of space tourism companyVirgin Galactic Holdings(NYSE:SPCE), electric vehicle hopefulNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA), and hydrogen fuel cell makerBloom Energy(NYSE:BE)all jumped Tuesday. As of 3:35 p.m. EDT:\n\nVirgin Galactic was up 9.2%\nNikola was up 7.7%\nBloom Energy was up 4.5%\n\nSo what\nWith its share price trading around $40, it's notable that the July 16, 2021 $100 call options on Virgin Galactic had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options Tuesday, according to Yahoo! Finance. Along with trading volume already more than double the 60-day daily average, this implies traders are hoping shares surge more than 150% to record highs in just the next three weeks.\nPart of the thinking of traders in Virgin Galactic call options may be that high short interest in the stock could set shares up to move higher. As of late May, 28% of the public share float was sold short. Retail traders likely are hoping for ashort squeezesimilar to what occurred in other meme stocks. Similarly, Nikola and Bloom Energy had a respective 32% and 12% of their floats sold short, according to data from MarketWatch.\nNow what\nEach of these stocks is speculative, and Virgin Galactic and Nikola aren't yet even bringing in revenue. Nothing of note was announced by these companies Tuesday to explain the stock movement. Nikola did file a Securities and Exchange Commission statement registering more than 18 million shares for potential sale. But that was related to capital it recently raised through a private deal, and any proceeds from the newly registered shares would be going to the stockholder, and not the company.\nInvestors may be interested in Bloom Energy Tuesday because of a quarterly financial release from fellow hydrogen fuel cell technology companyPlug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG).That report was a mix of strong sales growthoffset by continued net losses from that company. A growing hydrogen economy would be good news for Bloom, and company management expressed optimism in its recently released first quarter report for the period ended March 31, 2021. Revenue growth was also strong, and Bloom Energy CFO Greg Cameron said in a statement, \"We are confident in our guidance and are on the way to being a $1 billion revenue business that is well positioned for future growth.\"\nBut Tuesday's stock action seems more likely influenced by retail traders looking to turn high short interest into a rising stock price if shorts areforced to cover sold shares. For long-term investors, this type of move isn't critical to an investing thesis -- even for speculative stocks like these.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BE":0.9,"SPCE":0.9,"NKLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123459451,"gmtCreate":1624435978773,"gmtModify":1631889676977,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123459451","repostId":"1135867851","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162151172,"gmtCreate":1624047745396,"gmtModify":1631889676985,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162151172","repostId":"1175119628","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161102656,"gmtCreate":1623908450775,"gmtModify":1634025991853,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the MOOn","listText":"To the MOOn","text":"To the MOOn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161102656","repostId":"1191285596","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187287872,"gmtCreate":1623755542296,"gmtModify":1634028957365,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187287872","repostId":"2143735244","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187285737,"gmtCreate":1623755514829,"gmtModify":1634028958631,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187285737","repostId":"1135158450","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184042785,"gmtCreate":1623679216547,"gmtModify":1634030195861,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184042785","repostId":"1126364171","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182636777,"gmtCreate":1623567452699,"gmtModify":1634031564564,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182636777","repostId":"2142788457","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186813737,"gmtCreate":1623483896629,"gmtModify":1634032488846,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like thx","listText":"Comment and like thx","text":"Comment and like thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186813737","repostId":"1118102755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118102755","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623469189,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118102755?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118102755","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank ","content":"<p>  <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>  Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p><p><blockquote><b>迈克尔·布拉什(Michael Brush)就如何在债券收益率上升和央行减少刺激措施时避免犯错误提出了建议。</b>不要被对十多年来最高通胀率的平静反应所迷惑。通胀将保持在足以撼动股市的高位，可能导致高达15%的抛售。你现在需要准备。</blockquote></p><p> The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>原因是：持续的高通胀将使10年期国债收益率升至2%，并让美联储在年底前开始缩减刺激措施。两者都会扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p> The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p><p><blockquote>政府6月10日表示，5月份生活成本飙升，推动通胀率升至5%的13年高点。</blockquote></p><p> What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>你该怎么办？可能和你想的正好相反。在我们讨论这个问题之前，我们先来看看从今天到年底之间股市的两个关键事件——债券市场和美联储。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising yields</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益率上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p><p><blockquote>还记得今年早些时候，当10年期国债收益率TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.452%升至1.7%左右时，股市是如何恐慌的吗？好吧，期待重演。只会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> “We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)经济学家弗兰齐斯卡·帕尔马斯(Franziska Palmas)以劳动力市场紧张和工资增长为由表示：“我们怀疑美国的通胀将比投资者目前预期的更加持久。”她的研究小组预计今年年底10年期国债收益率为2.25%，2022年底为2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p><p><blockquote>与目前1.5%的水平相比，这将是一个很大的变化。当利率大幅上升时，股票投资者往往会感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储缩减规模</b></blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔淡化了央行缩减购债规模以保持低收益率的必要性。但联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）12名成员中有一半最近表示，他们准备开始讨论缩减规模。FOMC是美联储制定货币政策的分支机构。</blockquote></p><p> “It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>《预测市场》一书的作者兼亚德尼研究主管埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)表示：“在美联储开始谈论缩减规模之前，鲍威尔越来越难以声称经济需要在实现最大就业方面取得‘实质性的进一步进展’。”鲍威尔多次表示，美联储正在等待经济取得“实质性的进一步进展”，然后再终止刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼预测：“鉴于经济表现，有理由预计他们将在年底前开始缩减规模，几个月后他们将开始提高联邦基金利率。”</blockquote></p><p> He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p><p><blockquote>他认为美联储将在7月会议上宣布开始缩减规模的决定。Tapering是指美联储缩减购债规模。这收紧了货币供应，抑制了经济增长。一旦购买量降至零，美联储就会继续降息。</blockquote></p><p> As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，缩减规模会导致股市出现“缩减恐慌”，这意味着标普500 SPX指数+0.19%、道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数+0.04%和纳斯达克综合指数+0.35%等指数大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to prepare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何准备</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p><p><blockquote>在考虑如何为债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩政策可能引发的抛售做好准备时，要记住的关键事情是为什么会发生这些事情，以及历史告诉我们股票的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，缩减购债规模和债券收益率上升会扼杀经济增长和股市牛市。但这实际上不是真的。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p><p><blockquote>是的，最初，紧缩可能会导致股市下跌——或者充其量是横盘震荡。但随着牛市的持续，股市摆脱了这一局面并走高。这是有道理的，因为紧缩的发生是有帮助企业的充分理由的——强劲的经济增长。这大幅推高了盈利，从而将估值重置为较低——回落到投资者感到满意的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold市场策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“缩减规模是复苏的重要组成部分。”“这是对成功政策和经济反弹的回应。这是牛市的自然组成部分，允许市场走高。这是一种健康的发展。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>纵观未来可能出现的所有市场亮点，保尔森认为潜在的经济增长将推动标普500的盈利在年底前达到220美元。假设标普500处于当前水平或略低，这将使该指数的市盈率(P/E)降至18-19——接近或低于1990年以来的平均水平。“这为牛市的下一阶段奠定了基础，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Your five-point game plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的五点游戏计划</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要去“防御性”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当人们看到股市动荡时，下意识的反应是追求公用事业和必需消费品等防御性股票的“稳定性”。但那将是一个错误。当经济放缓或收缩时，你想采取防御措施，而不是当经济强劲时。另一个问题是防御性名称需要支付收益。因此，与债券一样，它们也会受到利率上升的打击，利率上升会使股息以及支付股息的股票和债券贬值。</blockquote></p><p> “The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“保护自己的最佳方式是将您的投资组合与过热的经济挂钩。这是最佳利润增长和利润杠杆的地方，”保尔森说。“防御性药物是不会有这种感觉的。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.与受益于增长的公司同行</b></blockquote></p><p> Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>由于快速的经济增长正在导致缩减规模——而且增长通常不会被紧缩扼杀——与增长相关的股票通常是最好的选择。这意味着周期性股票，如工业股、基础材料消费股、小盘股和国际股票。保尔森表示：“消费必需品和公用事业增长放缓将无法跟上市场增长领域的步伐。”</blockquote></p><p> I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote>我首先建议Lindblad Expeditions LIND，+0.17%和Cardlytics CDLX，+4.54%，并在我的股票信中，在2020年9月和2019年11月重温股票（我网站的链接在下面的简历中）。尽管它们的股价分别上涨了48%和157%，即标普500的两到四倍，但我仍然喜欢并拥有这两家公司。最近的内部买入证实了他们在当前水平附近买入并持有。另外，两者都是循环名称。Cardlytics帮助信用卡公司出于营销目的了解客户购买模式。Lindblad提供专门的异国情调的邮轮冒险。两者都受益于推动更多消费者支出的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、不脱销库存</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为抛售即将到来，那么在此之前尝试卖出股票，并在疲软发生后回购股票可能很诱人。但这比你想象的要困难得多。市场资深人士表示，事实上，几乎不可能把握好时机。</blockquote></p><p> “You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须做出两个明智的决定，”亚德尼说。“你必须在修正之前退出，然后你必须决定何时重新加入。我不知道有多少人能始终如一地做到这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>市场计时器通常会退出，不会再回来，他们会错过下一轮上涨。“试图避免调整可能会给自己带来麻烦，”保尔森说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.不持有债券</b></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p><p><blockquote>到年底，债券收益率将达到2%或更高。因此，不要持有债券，当收益率上升时，债券的价格就会下跌——除非您只是计划持有至到期以收取收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Go with financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.选择财务</b></blockquote></p><p> Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济体通常会使收益率曲线更加向上倾斜，这意味着10年期国债的长期利率上升速度远快于短期利率。由于银行在短端借款，在长端放贷，陡峭的收益率曲线对它们有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼指出，强劲的经济还将帮助银行释放准备金并降低贷款损失准备金，这两者都可以提高收益。自从我去年8月在股票信中提出建议以来，摩根大通JPM(-0.07%)和美国银行BAC(+0.41%)的涨幅都是标普500的两倍多。但它们看起来仍然很有吸引力。小型银行中聪明的内部人士最近的买入模式证实，尽管过去几个季度表现强劲，但该行业仍然值得持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>  Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p><p><blockquote><b>迈克尔·布拉什(Michael Brush)就如何在债券收益率上升和央行减少刺激措施时避免犯错误提出了建议。</b>不要被对十多年来最高通胀率的平静反应所迷惑。通胀将保持在足以撼动股市的高位，可能导致高达15%的抛售。你现在需要准备。</blockquote></p><p> The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>原因是：持续的高通胀将使10年期国债收益率升至2%，并让美联储在年底前开始缩减刺激措施。两者都会扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p> The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p><p><blockquote>政府6月10日表示，5月份生活成本飙升，推动通胀率升至5%的13年高点。</blockquote></p><p> What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>你该怎么办？可能和你想的正好相反。在我们讨论这个问题之前，我们先来看看从今天到年底之间股市的两个关键事件——债券市场和美联储。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising yields</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益率上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p><p><blockquote>还记得今年早些时候，当10年期国债收益率TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.452%升至1.7%左右时，股市是如何恐慌的吗？好吧，期待重演。只会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> “We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)经济学家弗兰齐斯卡·帕尔马斯(Franziska Palmas)以劳动力市场紧张和工资增长为由表示：“我们怀疑美国的通胀将比投资者目前预期的更加持久。”她的研究小组预计今年年底10年期国债收益率为2.25%，2022年底为2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p><p><blockquote>与目前1.5%的水平相比，这将是一个很大的变化。当利率大幅上升时，股票投资者往往会感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储缩减规模</b></blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔淡化了央行缩减购债规模以保持低收益率的必要性。但联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）12名成员中有一半最近表示，他们准备开始讨论缩减规模。FOMC是美联储制定货币政策的分支机构。</blockquote></p><p> “It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>《预测市场》一书的作者兼亚德尼研究主管埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)表示：“在美联储开始谈论缩减规模之前，鲍威尔越来越难以声称经济需要在实现最大就业方面取得‘实质性的进一步进展’。”鲍威尔多次表示，美联储正在等待经济取得“实质性的进一步进展”，然后再终止刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼预测：“鉴于经济表现，有理由预计他们将在年底前开始缩减规模，几个月后他们将开始提高联邦基金利率。”</blockquote></p><p> He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p><p><blockquote>他认为美联储将在7月会议上宣布开始缩减规模的决定。Tapering是指美联储缩减购债规模。这收紧了货币供应，抑制了经济增长。一旦购买量降至零，美联储就会继续降息。</blockquote></p><p> As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，缩减规模会导致股市出现“缩减恐慌”，这意味着标普500 SPX指数+0.19%、道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数+0.04%和纳斯达克综合指数+0.35%等指数大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to prepare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何准备</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p><p><blockquote>在考虑如何为债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩政策可能引发的抛售做好准备时，要记住的关键事情是为什么会发生这些事情，以及历史告诉我们股票的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，缩减购债规模和债券收益率上升会扼杀经济增长和股市牛市。但这实际上不是真的。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p><p><blockquote>是的，最初，紧缩可能会导致股市下跌——或者充其量是横盘震荡。但随着牛市的持续，股市摆脱了这一局面并走高。这是有道理的，因为紧缩的发生是有帮助企业的充分理由的——强劲的经济增长。这大幅推高了盈利，从而将估值重置为较低——回落到投资者感到满意的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold市场策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“缩减规模是复苏的重要组成部分。”“这是对成功政策和经济反弹的回应。这是牛市的自然组成部分，允许市场走高。这是一种健康的发展。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>纵观未来可能出现的所有市场亮点，保尔森认为潜在的经济增长将推动标普500的盈利在年底前达到220美元。假设标普500处于当前水平或略低，这将使该指数的市盈率(P/E)降至18-19——接近或低于1990年以来的平均水平。“这为牛市的下一阶段奠定了基础，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Your five-point game plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的五点游戏计划</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要去“防御性”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当人们看到股市动荡时，下意识的反应是追求公用事业和必需消费品等防御性股票的“稳定性”。但那将是一个错误。当经济放缓或收缩时，你想采取防御措施，而不是当经济强劲时。另一个问题是防御性名称需要支付收益。因此，与债券一样，它们也会受到利率上升的打击，利率上升会使股息以及支付股息的股票和债券贬值。</blockquote></p><p> “The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“保护自己的最佳方式是将您的投资组合与过热的经济挂钩。这是最佳利润增长和利润杠杆的地方，”保尔森说。“防御性药物是不会有这种感觉的。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.与受益于增长的公司同行</b></blockquote></p><p> Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>由于快速的经济增长正在导致缩减规模——而且增长通常不会被紧缩扼杀——与增长相关的股票通常是最好的选择。这意味着周期性股票，如工业股、基础材料消费股、小盘股和国际股票。保尔森表示：“消费必需品和公用事业增长放缓将无法跟上市场增长领域的步伐。”</blockquote></p><p> I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote>我首先建议Lindblad Expeditions LIND，+0.17%和Cardlytics CDLX，+4.54%，并在我的股票信中，在2020年9月和2019年11月重温股票（我网站的链接在下面的简历中）。尽管它们的股价分别上涨了48%和157%，即标普500的两到四倍，但我仍然喜欢并拥有这两家公司。最近的内部买入证实了他们在当前水平附近买入并持有。另外，两者都是循环名称。Cardlytics帮助信用卡公司出于营销目的了解客户购买模式。Lindblad提供专门的异国情调的邮轮冒险。两者都受益于推动更多消费者支出的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、不脱销库存</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为抛售即将到来，那么在此之前尝试卖出股票，并在疲软发生后回购股票可能很诱人。但这比你想象的要困难得多。市场资深人士表示，事实上，几乎不可能把握好时机。</blockquote></p><p> “You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须做出两个明智的决定，”亚德尼说。“你必须在修正之前退出，然后你必须决定何时重新加入。我不知道有多少人能始终如一地做到这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>市场计时器通常会退出，不会再回来，他们会错过下一轮上涨。“试图避免调整可能会给自己带来麻烦，”保尔森说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.不持有债券</b></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p><p><blockquote>到年底，债券收益率将达到2%或更高。因此，不要持有债券，当收益率上升时，债券的价格就会下跌——除非您只是计划持有至到期以收取收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Go with financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.选择财务</b></blockquote></p><p> Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济体通常会使收益率曲线更加向上倾斜，这意味着10年期国债的长期利率上升速度远快于短期利率。由于银行在短端借款，在长端放贷，陡峭的收益率曲线对它们有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼指出，强劲的经济还将帮助银行释放准备金并降低贷款损失准备金，这两者都可以提高收益。自从我去年8月在股票信中提出建议以来，摩根大通JPM(-0.07%)和美国银行BAC(+0.41%)的涨幅都是标普500的两倍多。但它们看起来仍然很有吸引力。小型银行中聪明的内部人士最近的买入模式证实，尽管过去几个季度表现强劲，但该行业仍然值得持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118102755","content_text":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.\nThe reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.\nThe government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.\nWhat should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.\nRising yields\nRemember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.\n“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.\nThat’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.\nFed tapering\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.\n“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.\n“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.\nHe thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.\nAs we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&P 500 SPX,+0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04% and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.\nHow to prepare\nWhen considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.\nThe consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.\nYes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.\n“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”\nLooking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.\nYour five-point game plan\n1. Do not go to “defensives”\nWhen people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.\n“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”\n2. Go with companies that benefit from growth\nSince rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.\nI first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17% and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54% and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.\n3. Do not get out of stocks\nIf you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.\n“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”\nMarket timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.\n4. Do not own bonds\nBond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.\n5. Go with financials\nStrong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.\nThe strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07% and Bank of America BAC,+0.41% are up over twice as much as the S&P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186813980,"gmtCreate":1623483865940,"gmtModify":1634032489807,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186813980","repostId":"1102961449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188891569,"gmtCreate":1623426922251,"gmtModify":1634033293911,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188891569","repostId":"2142920910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189514841,"gmtCreate":1623281716383,"gmtModify":1634035099698,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189514841","repostId":"1154764167","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":358054398,"gmtCreate":1616644161114,"gmtModify":1634524761690,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358054398","repostId":"1179697554","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125502502,"gmtCreate":1624678442106,"gmtModify":1631889676970,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125502502","repostId":"1100072036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327475169,"gmtCreate":1616120974151,"gmtModify":1634527123301,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327475169","repostId":"2120016886","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320759451,"gmtCreate":1615180544973,"gmtModify":1703485283263,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hahahaha well said","listText":"Hahahaha well said","text":"Hahahaha well said","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320759451","repostId":"1107506637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186813737,"gmtCreate":1623483896629,"gmtModify":1634032488846,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like thx","listText":"Comment and like thx","text":"Comment and like thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186813737","repostId":"1118102755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118102755","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623469189,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118102755?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118102755","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank ","content":"<p>  <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>  Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p><p><blockquote><b>迈克尔·布拉什(Michael Brush)就如何在债券收益率上升和央行减少刺激措施时避免犯错误提出了建议。</b>不要被对十多年来最高通胀率的平静反应所迷惑。通胀将保持在足以撼动股市的高位，可能导致高达15%的抛售。你现在需要准备。</blockquote></p><p> The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>原因是：持续的高通胀将使10年期国债收益率升至2%，并让美联储在年底前开始缩减刺激措施。两者都会扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p> The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p><p><blockquote>政府6月10日表示，5月份生活成本飙升，推动通胀率升至5%的13年高点。</blockquote></p><p> What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>你该怎么办？可能和你想的正好相反。在我们讨论这个问题之前，我们先来看看从今天到年底之间股市的两个关键事件——债券市场和美联储。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising yields</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益率上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p><p><blockquote>还记得今年早些时候，当10年期国债收益率TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.452%升至1.7%左右时，股市是如何恐慌的吗？好吧，期待重演。只会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> “We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)经济学家弗兰齐斯卡·帕尔马斯(Franziska Palmas)以劳动力市场紧张和工资增长为由表示：“我们怀疑美国的通胀将比投资者目前预期的更加持久。”她的研究小组预计今年年底10年期国债收益率为2.25%，2022年底为2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p><p><blockquote>与目前1.5%的水平相比，这将是一个很大的变化。当利率大幅上升时，股票投资者往往会感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储缩减规模</b></blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔淡化了央行缩减购债规模以保持低收益率的必要性。但联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）12名成员中有一半最近表示，他们准备开始讨论缩减规模。FOMC是美联储制定货币政策的分支机构。</blockquote></p><p> “It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>《预测市场》一书的作者兼亚德尼研究主管埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)表示：“在美联储开始谈论缩减规模之前，鲍威尔越来越难以声称经济需要在实现最大就业方面取得‘实质性的进一步进展’。”鲍威尔多次表示，美联储正在等待经济取得“实质性的进一步进展”，然后再终止刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼预测：“鉴于经济表现，有理由预计他们将在年底前开始缩减规模，几个月后他们将开始提高联邦基金利率。”</blockquote></p><p> He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p><p><blockquote>他认为美联储将在7月会议上宣布开始缩减规模的决定。Tapering是指美联储缩减购债规模。这收紧了货币供应，抑制了经济增长。一旦购买量降至零，美联储就会继续降息。</blockquote></p><p> As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，缩减规模会导致股市出现“缩减恐慌”，这意味着标普500 SPX指数+0.19%、道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数+0.04%和纳斯达克综合指数+0.35%等指数大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to prepare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何准备</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p><p><blockquote>在考虑如何为债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩政策可能引发的抛售做好准备时，要记住的关键事情是为什么会发生这些事情，以及历史告诉我们股票的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，缩减购债规模和债券收益率上升会扼杀经济增长和股市牛市。但这实际上不是真的。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p><p><blockquote>是的，最初，紧缩可能会导致股市下跌——或者充其量是横盘震荡。但随着牛市的持续，股市摆脱了这一局面并走高。这是有道理的，因为紧缩的发生是有帮助企业的充分理由的——强劲的经济增长。这大幅推高了盈利，从而将估值重置为较低——回落到投资者感到满意的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold市场策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“缩减规模是复苏的重要组成部分。”“这是对成功政策和经济反弹的回应。这是牛市的自然组成部分，允许市场走高。这是一种健康的发展。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>纵观未来可能出现的所有市场亮点，保尔森认为潜在的经济增长将推动标普500的盈利在年底前达到220美元。假设标普500处于当前水平或略低，这将使该指数的市盈率(P/E)降至18-19——接近或低于1990年以来的平均水平。“这为牛市的下一阶段奠定了基础，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Your five-point game plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的五点游戏计划</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要去“防御性”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当人们看到股市动荡时，下意识的反应是追求公用事业和必需消费品等防御性股票的“稳定性”。但那将是一个错误。当经济放缓或收缩时，你想采取防御措施，而不是当经济强劲时。另一个问题是防御性名称需要支付收益。因此，与债券一样，它们也会受到利率上升的打击，利率上升会使股息以及支付股息的股票和债券贬值。</blockquote></p><p> “The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“保护自己的最佳方式是将您的投资组合与过热的经济挂钩。这是最佳利润增长和利润杠杆的地方，”保尔森说。“防御性药物是不会有这种感觉的。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.与受益于增长的公司同行</b></blockquote></p><p> Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>由于快速的经济增长正在导致缩减规模——而且增长通常不会被紧缩扼杀——与增长相关的股票通常是最好的选择。这意味着周期性股票，如工业股、基础材料消费股、小盘股和国际股票。保尔森表示：“消费必需品和公用事业增长放缓将无法跟上市场增长领域的步伐。”</blockquote></p><p> I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote>我首先建议Lindblad Expeditions LIND，+0.17%和Cardlytics CDLX，+4.54%，并在我的股票信中，在2020年9月和2019年11月重温股票（我网站的链接在下面的简历中）。尽管它们的股价分别上涨了48%和157%，即标普500的两到四倍，但我仍然喜欢并拥有这两家公司。最近的内部买入证实了他们在当前水平附近买入并持有。另外，两者都是循环名称。Cardlytics帮助信用卡公司出于营销目的了解客户购买模式。Lindblad提供专门的异国情调的邮轮冒险。两者都受益于推动更多消费者支出的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、不脱销库存</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为抛售即将到来，那么在此之前尝试卖出股票，并在疲软发生后回购股票可能很诱人。但这比你想象的要困难得多。市场资深人士表示，事实上，几乎不可能把握好时机。</blockquote></p><p> “You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须做出两个明智的决定，”亚德尼说。“你必须在修正之前退出，然后你必须决定何时重新加入。我不知道有多少人能始终如一地做到这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>市场计时器通常会退出，不会再回来，他们会错过下一轮上涨。“试图避免调整可能会给自己带来麻烦，”保尔森说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.不持有债券</b></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p><p><blockquote>到年底，债券收益率将达到2%或更高。因此，不要持有债券，当收益率上升时，债券的价格就会下跌——除非您只是计划持有至到期以收取收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Go with financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.选择财务</b></blockquote></p><p> Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济体通常会使收益率曲线更加向上倾斜，这意味着10年期国债的长期利率上升速度远快于短期利率。由于银行在短端借款，在长端放贷，陡峭的收益率曲线对它们有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼指出，强劲的经济还将帮助银行释放准备金并降低贷款损失准备金，这两者都可以提高收益。自从我去年8月在股票信中提出建议以来，摩根大通JPM(-0.07%)和美国银行BAC(+0.41%)的涨幅都是标普500的两倍多。但它们看起来仍然很有吸引力。小型银行中聪明的内部人士最近的买入模式证实，尽管过去几个季度表现强劲，但该行业仍然值得持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>  Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p><p><blockquote><b>迈克尔·布拉什(Michael Brush)就如何在债券收益率上升和央行减少刺激措施时避免犯错误提出了建议。</b>不要被对十多年来最高通胀率的平静反应所迷惑。通胀将保持在足以撼动股市的高位，可能导致高达15%的抛售。你现在需要准备。</blockquote></p><p> The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>原因是：持续的高通胀将使10年期国债收益率升至2%，并让美联储在年底前开始缩减刺激措施。两者都会扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p> The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p><p><blockquote>政府6月10日表示，5月份生活成本飙升，推动通胀率升至5%的13年高点。</blockquote></p><p> What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>你该怎么办？可能和你想的正好相反。在我们讨论这个问题之前，我们先来看看从今天到年底之间股市的两个关键事件——债券市场和美联储。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising yields</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益率上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p><p><blockquote>还记得今年早些时候，当10年期国债收益率TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.452%升至1.7%左右时，股市是如何恐慌的吗？好吧，期待重演。只会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> “We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)经济学家弗兰齐斯卡·帕尔马斯(Franziska Palmas)以劳动力市场紧张和工资增长为由表示：“我们怀疑美国的通胀将比投资者目前预期的更加持久。”她的研究小组预计今年年底10年期国债收益率为2.25%，2022年底为2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p><p><blockquote>与目前1.5%的水平相比，这将是一个很大的变化。当利率大幅上升时，股票投资者往往会感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储缩减规模</b></blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔淡化了央行缩减购债规模以保持低收益率的必要性。但联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）12名成员中有一半最近表示，他们准备开始讨论缩减规模。FOMC是美联储制定货币政策的分支机构。</blockquote></p><p> “It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>《预测市场》一书的作者兼亚德尼研究主管埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)表示：“在美联储开始谈论缩减规模之前，鲍威尔越来越难以声称经济需要在实现最大就业方面取得‘实质性的进一步进展’。”鲍威尔多次表示，美联储正在等待经济取得“实质性的进一步进展”，然后再终止刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼预测：“鉴于经济表现，有理由预计他们将在年底前开始缩减规模，几个月后他们将开始提高联邦基金利率。”</blockquote></p><p> He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p><p><blockquote>他认为美联储将在7月会议上宣布开始缩减规模的决定。Tapering是指美联储缩减购债规模。这收紧了货币供应，抑制了经济增长。一旦购买量降至零，美联储就会继续降息。</blockquote></p><p> As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，缩减规模会导致股市出现“缩减恐慌”，这意味着标普500 SPX指数+0.19%、道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数+0.04%和纳斯达克综合指数+0.35%等指数大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to prepare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何准备</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p><p><blockquote>在考虑如何为债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩政策可能引发的抛售做好准备时，要记住的关键事情是为什么会发生这些事情，以及历史告诉我们股票的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，缩减购债规模和债券收益率上升会扼杀经济增长和股市牛市。但这实际上不是真的。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p><p><blockquote>是的，最初，紧缩可能会导致股市下跌——或者充其量是横盘震荡。但随着牛市的持续，股市摆脱了这一局面并走高。这是有道理的，因为紧缩的发生是有帮助企业的充分理由的——强劲的经济增长。这大幅推高了盈利，从而将估值重置为较低——回落到投资者感到满意的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold市场策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“缩减规模是复苏的重要组成部分。”“这是对成功政策和经济反弹的回应。这是牛市的自然组成部分，允许市场走高。这是一种健康的发展。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>纵观未来可能出现的所有市场亮点，保尔森认为潜在的经济增长将推动标普500的盈利在年底前达到220美元。假设标普500处于当前水平或略低，这将使该指数的市盈率(P/E)降至18-19——接近或低于1990年以来的平均水平。“这为牛市的下一阶段奠定了基础，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Your five-point game plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的五点游戏计划</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要去“防御性”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当人们看到股市动荡时，下意识的反应是追求公用事业和必需消费品等防御性股票的“稳定性”。但那将是一个错误。当经济放缓或收缩时，你想采取防御措施，而不是当经济强劲时。另一个问题是防御性名称需要支付收益。因此，与债券一样，它们也会受到利率上升的打击，利率上升会使股息以及支付股息的股票和债券贬值。</blockquote></p><p> “The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“保护自己的最佳方式是将您的投资组合与过热的经济挂钩。这是最佳利润增长和利润杠杆的地方，”保尔森说。“防御性药物是不会有这种感觉的。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.与受益于增长的公司同行</b></blockquote></p><p> Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>由于快速的经济增长正在导致缩减规模——而且增长通常不会被紧缩扼杀——与增长相关的股票通常是最好的选择。这意味着周期性股票，如工业股、基础材料消费股、小盘股和国际股票。保尔森表示：“消费必需品和公用事业增长放缓将无法跟上市场增长领域的步伐。”</blockquote></p><p> I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote>我首先建议Lindblad Expeditions LIND，+0.17%和Cardlytics CDLX，+4.54%，并在我的股票信中，在2020年9月和2019年11月重温股票（我网站的链接在下面的简历中）。尽管它们的股价分别上涨了48%和157%，即标普500的两到四倍，但我仍然喜欢并拥有这两家公司。最近的内部买入证实了他们在当前水平附近买入并持有。另外，两者都是循环名称。Cardlytics帮助信用卡公司出于营销目的了解客户购买模式。Lindblad提供专门的异国情调的邮轮冒险。两者都受益于推动更多消费者支出的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、不脱销库存</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为抛售即将到来，那么在此之前尝试卖出股票，并在疲软发生后回购股票可能很诱人。但这比你想象的要困难得多。市场资深人士表示，事实上，几乎不可能把握好时机。</blockquote></p><p> “You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须做出两个明智的决定，”亚德尼说。“你必须在修正之前退出，然后你必须决定何时重新加入。我不知道有多少人能始终如一地做到这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>市场计时器通常会退出，不会再回来，他们会错过下一轮上涨。“试图避免调整可能会给自己带来麻烦，”保尔森说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.不持有债券</b></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p><p><blockquote>到年底，债券收益率将达到2%或更高。因此，不要持有债券，当收益率上升时，债券的价格就会下跌——除非您只是计划持有至到期以收取收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Go with financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.选择财务</b></blockquote></p><p> Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济体通常会使收益率曲线更加向上倾斜，这意味着10年期国债的长期利率上升速度远快于短期利率。由于银行在短端借款，在长端放贷，陡峭的收益率曲线对它们有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼指出，强劲的经济还将帮助银行释放准备金并降低贷款损失准备金，这两者都可以提高收益。自从我去年8月在股票信中提出建议以来，摩根大通JPM(-0.07%)和美国银行BAC(+0.41%)的涨幅都是标普500的两倍多。但它们看起来仍然很有吸引力。小型银行中聪明的内部人士最近的买入模式证实，尽管过去几个季度表现强劲，但该行业仍然值得持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118102755","content_text":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.\nThe reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.\nThe government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.\nWhat should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.\nRising yields\nRemember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.\n“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.\nThat’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.\nFed tapering\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.\n“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.\n“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.\nHe thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.\nAs we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&P 500 SPX,+0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04% and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.\nHow to prepare\nWhen considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.\nThe consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.\nYes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.\n“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”\nLooking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.\nYour five-point game plan\n1. Do not go to “defensives”\nWhen people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.\n“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”\n2. Go with companies that benefit from growth\nSince rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.\nI first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17% and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54% and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.\n3. Do not get out of stocks\nIf you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.\n“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”\nMarket timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.\n4. Do not own bonds\nBond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.\n5. Go with financials\nStrong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.\nThe strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07% and Bank of America BAC,+0.41% are up over twice as much as the S&P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353187215,"gmtCreate":1616470181937,"gmtModify":1634525655359,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well well","listText":"Well well","text":"Well well","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353187215","repostId":"2121833106","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121833106","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616469915,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2121833106?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-23 11:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft in talks to acquire Discord for more than $10 billion: Bloomberg News<blockquote>微软正在洽谈以超过100亿美元收购Discord：彭博新闻</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121833106","media":"reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is in talks to buy messaging platform Discord Inc for more than $10 billi","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is in talks to buy messaging platform Discord Inc for more than $10 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-据彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道，微软公司正在就以超过100亿美元收购消息平台Discord Inc进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p>Discord has reached out to potential buyers and Microsoft is one of them, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter, while one of them said it was more likely to go public than sell itself.</p><p><blockquote>报道援引知情人士的话称，Discord已经联系了潜在买家，微软就是其中之一，而其中一位人士表示，该公司更有可能上市，而不是出售自己。</blockquote></p><p>Earlier in the day, VentureBeat reported that Discord was exploring a sale and it was in final talks with a party.</p><p><blockquote>当天早些时候，VentureBeat报道称，Discord正在探索出售，并正在与一方进行最后谈判。</blockquote></p><p>Both Microsoft and Discord did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comments.</p><p><blockquote>微软和Discord都没有立即回应路透社的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted the prospects of gaming companies as people stayed at home and turned to video games for entertainment during lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎疫情提振了游戏公司的前景，因为人们在封锁期间呆在家里，转向视频游戏娱乐。</blockquote></p><p>Earlier this month, U.S. gaming company Roblox made a strong market debut after going public through a direct listing rather than a traditional initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，美国游戏公司Roblox通过直接上市而不是传统的首次公开募股上市后，首次亮相市场表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft in talks to acquire Discord for more than $10 billion: Bloomberg News<blockquote>微软正在洽谈以超过100亿美元收购Discord：彭博新闻</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft in talks to acquire Discord for more than $10 billion: Bloomberg News<blockquote>微软正在洽谈以超过100亿美元收购Discord：彭博新闻</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-23 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is in talks to buy messaging platform Discord Inc for more than $10 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-据彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道，微软公司正在就以超过100亿美元收购消息平台Discord Inc进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p>Discord has reached out to potential buyers and Microsoft is one of them, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter, while one of them said it was more likely to go public than sell itself.</p><p><blockquote>报道援引知情人士的话称，Discord已经联系了潜在买家，微软就是其中之一，而其中一位人士表示，该公司更有可能上市，而不是出售自己。</blockquote></p><p>Earlier in the day, VentureBeat reported that Discord was exploring a sale and it was in final talks with a party.</p><p><blockquote>当天早些时候，VentureBeat报道称，Discord正在探索出售，并正在与一方进行最后谈判。</blockquote></p><p>Both Microsoft and Discord did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comments.</p><p><blockquote>微软和Discord都没有立即回应路透社的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted the prospects of gaming companies as people stayed at home and turned to video games for entertainment during lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎疫情提振了游戏公司的前景，因为人们在封锁期间呆在家里，转向视频游戏娱乐。</blockquote></p><p>Earlier this month, U.S. gaming company Roblox made a strong market debut after going public through a direct listing rather than a traditional initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，美国游戏公司Roblox通过直接上市而不是传统的首次公开募股上市后，首次亮相市场表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-discord-m-a/microsoft-in-talks-to-acquire-discord-for-more-than-10-billion-bloomberg-news-idUSKBN2BE320?il=0\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-discord-m-a/microsoft-in-talks-to-acquire-discord-for-more-than-10-billion-bloomberg-news-idUSKBN2BE320?il=0","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121833106","content_text":"(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is in talks to buy messaging platform Discord Inc for more than $10 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.Discord has reached out to potential buyers and Microsoft is one of them, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter, while one of them said it was more likely to go public than sell itself.Earlier in the day, VentureBeat reported that Discord was exploring a sale and it was in final talks with a party.Both Microsoft and Discord did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comments.The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted the prospects of gaming companies as people stayed at home and turned to video games for entertainment during lockdowns.Earlier this month, U.S. gaming company Roblox made a strong market debut after going public through a direct listing rather than a traditional initial public offering.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PINS":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115145488,"gmtCreate":1622963465244,"gmtModify":1634096523946,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115145488","repostId":"2140540596","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108099253,"gmtCreate":1619955794572,"gmtModify":1634208888295,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108099253","repostId":"1103106179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346501288,"gmtCreate":1618060341444,"gmtModify":1634295028046,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346501288","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366553122,"gmtCreate":1614519341266,"gmtModify":1703477983546,"author":{"id":"3574156765565189","authorId":"3574156765565189","name":"Foros","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aab8cbc5838ac3992a3d449f933303e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574156765565189","idStr":"3574156765565189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noice","listText":"Noice","text":"Noice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366553122","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}