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","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606232468","repostId":"2189634336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2189634336","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638883200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2189634336?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-07 21:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"商汤摘得“AI第一股”，“AI四小龙”各有烦恼","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2189634336","media":"价值研究所","summary":"“AI四小龙”的上市之路，一个比一个坎坷……","content":"<p>2021年，人工智能行业迎来上市潮。但以“AI四小龙”为首的国内AI企业，上市之路却十分坎坷：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 今年3月份，旷视科技港股IPO计划搁浅，随后转战科创板，终于在9月份成功过会；4月份，由于提交的财务资料超过时限，云从科技IPO申请中止，直到7月份才在科创板通过首发上市申请，但和旷视一样目前都没有进一步动态；早在去年11月就向上交所递交IPO申请的依图科技，今年7月份中止IPO计划，目前也暂无进一步上市计划。\n</blockquote>\n<p>在一众同行纷纷“让赛”的情况下，12月7日开始招股、17日即将在港敲钟上市的商汤科技，如无意外将把“AI第一股”的头衔收入囊中。</p>\n<p>但“AI四小龙”充满波折的上市历程，仿佛在向外界传递一个讯息：<b>上市不是AI企业的终点，看似大热的AI产业，也并没有那么赚钱。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20211207/v2_5b7a7ad0747e4c32a36b35caf331e784_img_000\" tg-width=\"1321\" tg-height=\"896\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>（图片来自Pexels）</p>\n<h2>三年半巨亏240亿，“AI第一股”的烦恼真不少</h2>\n<p>根据港交所的官方文件，商汤科技此次IPO将发行15亿股，招股价为每股3.85-3.99港元，于12月7日至10日开放公众认购，拟募集资金最多不超60亿港元。根据前期认购信息，包括Hel Ved Capital和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">上汽集团</a>在内的8名基石投资者将认购其中4.5亿美元股票。按照最新融资信息，商汤科技估值高达130亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>值得一提的是，商汤科技成功通过港交所聆讯，被认为是一次“硬技术”的胜利。</b></p>\n<p>商汤科技的“硬”，体现在强大的研发团队上。拥有麻省理工学院博士学位的商汤科技创始人汤晓鸥教授，是香港中大多媒体实验室（MMLab）的创办人，该实验室曾和麻省理工、斯坦福的实验室一起入选世界十大人工智能先锋实验室，科技实力强大。</p>\n<p>在汤晓鸥的带领下，商汤科技初创团队将“学历内卷”玩到了极致：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 联合创始人兼CEO徐立拥有香港中大工程学博士学位；另一联合创始人兼首席科学家王晓刚是汤晓鸥在麻省理工的校友，同样有计算机科学博士学位；联合创始人、执行董事徐冰上海交大本硕连读，随后在香港中大获得了博士学位……\n</blockquote>\n<p>据公开信息，截止今年6月底，商汤科技研发团队里共有40位教授、250多位博士（含博士生）、超过3500名科学家和工程师，堪称人工智能界的学历巅峰。</p>\n<p>不过，这群站在技术尖端的博士、科学家们，现在不得不走进一个陌生的领域，接受资本市场的严苛考验。</p>\n<p>提醒大家一点：在上个月更新港交所聆讯后的资料集时，外界预计商汤科技的拟募资金额接近70亿港元。和当前不超60亿的实际招股金额相比，是缩水了。</p>\n<p>再联想到此前招股书中传递的不利讯息，我们难免要对商汤科技IPO之后的发展增添一丝担忧：<b>估值过高、亏损严重、营收增速放缓，都是商汤科技上市之后需要解决的难题。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3086dfa7a948ae5bc2992afd3f03663\" tg-width=\"1210\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>其中最大的烦恼，莫过于营收增速的放缓。</p>\n<p>数据显示，2018-2020年商汤科技总营收分别为18.53亿、30.27亿和34.46亿，今年上半年营收为16.52亿，较去年同期的8.61亿进步明显。此外，商汤科技的毛利率也在改善，从2018年的56.5%提升至今年上半年的73%，毛利润从2018年的10.47亿增长至去年的24.32亿，今年上半年暂录得12.04亿。</p>\n<p>乍一看，商汤科技还保持着不错的增长势头。<b>但仔细观察就会发现，其营收同比增速已经从2019年的63.3%大幅下滑至去年的13.8%。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790690ac4227cba02e44a03161b2a070\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>（图片来自商汤科技招股书）</p>\n<p>营收增速放缓的背后，自然有疫情等客观因素的影响。<b>但商汤科技核心业务面临增长瓶颈、新业务表现不佳，也是不可忽视的事实。</b></p>\n<p>从营收结构来看，智慧商业和智慧城市是商汤科技的核心业务，营收占比合计超过85%。但过去两年，这两大业务的营收增速都呈现断崖式下滑：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 智慧商业业务和智慧城市业务2019年营收分别为12.03亿和12.7亿，同比增速则分别录得41%和139%；但2020，两大业务板块的营收分别为14.85亿和13.69亿，同比增速骤降至23%和7%。\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91643503913476be3df1f8095b2807f\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"806\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>不幸的是，核心业务增速放缓之余，智慧生活和智能汽车两个业务板块的表现也没有太大起色。今年上半年，商汤科技智慧生活业务营收1.48亿，同比下滑5.13%；智能汽车业务营收7060万，同比仅微增4.59%。</p>\n<p>在价值研究所看来，智慧生活和智慧城市业务营收出现起伏，和市场大环境有一定关系；但一度被寄予厚望的智能汽车业务更多是自身发展有局限，现阶段确实很难为商汤科技带来太大效益。</p>\n<p><b>一方面，智能汽车行业技术壁垒高，且竞争异常激烈：</b>各大汽车厂商都在开发自己的智慧驾驶解决方案，华为、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>等巨头也强势入局，在技术和资本上都没有优势的商汤科技很难抢占更多市场份额。</p>\n<p><b>另一方面，智能汽车、自动驾驶都处在商业化初期，各个玩家都还在烧钱</b>——本身就面临巨额亏损的商汤科技，很难有充足的资本支持这一场持久战。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20211207/v2_16cd128c686447f583773604c7142789_img_000\" tg-width=\"1253\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>（图片来自商汤科技官网）</p>\n<p>核心业务增速放缓、新业务不给力加上研发投入的日益增长，自然会给商汤科技带来更大的成本压力。</p>\n<p>不过，令商汤科技稍感安慰的是，遭遇困境的不止它自己。<b>被业界人士寄予厚望的“AI四小龙”另外三名成员——旷视科技、云从科技和依图科技，也各有各的烦恼。</b></p>\n<h2>“AI四小龙”，各有各烦恼</h2>\n<p>从行业集中度来看，“AI四小龙”在国内计算机视觉软件（CV）市场的统治地位非常稳固。而在“AI四小龙”的内部对比中，商汤科技是当仁不让的老大哥。</p>\n<p>来自国际调查机构弗若斯特沙利文的报告显示，截止2020年，商汤科技在国内CV市场占有率为17.4%，占据首位。紧随其后的旷视科技市占率也达到了15.2%，云从科技和依图科技则分别为9.8%和9%。“AI四小龙”加起来占据CV市场半壁江山，行业集中度不可谓不高。</p>\n<p>而在营收、毛利润、毛利率、研发团队规模等一系列数据的横向对比中，商汤科技都在“AI四小龙”中拔得头筹。</p>\n<p>就拿最基本的营收数据来说。商汤科技2020年录得34.46亿，旷视科技同期营收仅为13.91亿，不及商汤科技的一半；云从科技2020年营收为7.55亿，对比旷视又打了个五折。</p>\n<p>实力最弱的小弟依图科技和老大哥商汤科技的差距就更加夸张了：根据递交给港交所的招股书，依图科技2018年-2020年上半年总营收不及15亿……</p>\n<p>当然，将对比范围扩大一点，跳出CV市场，我们还是能看到“AI四小龙”和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002415\">海康威视</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002230\">科大讯飞</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002236\">大华股份</a>等AI巨头之间的差距。</p>\n<p>以研发团队规模而论，商汤科技当前研发人员约为3500人，仅为海康威视的17%，大华股份的40%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5939d8054b78ec16a8ab73b3d76afeb1\" tg-width=\"1320\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>（图片来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">华泰证券</a>）</p>\n<p>不过，在“AI四小龙”内部当上老大，并不值得商汤科技太过高兴——毕竟它们都还没有摆脱亏损命运，只能算是“难兄难弟”。深入分析“AI四小龙”的业务布局之后，价值研究所认为，它们之所以深陷亏损泥淖、营收增速放缓，有几个相似的原因。</p>\n<p><b>第一，研发过于烧钱，拉低毛利率的同时也拉长了回报周期。</b></p>\n<p>招股书显示，商汤科技2018-2020年亏损分别为34.33亿、49.68亿和121.58亿，今年上半年亏损额也高达37.13亿，三年半合计巨亏超过240亿。其中，2020年亏损同比增速高达200%，揭示了商汤科技在成本控制上的缺陷。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a3c20c58639be31b028414f20da2856\" tg-width=\"1231\" tg-height=\"824\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>营收规模最大的商汤科技在亏损额上自然是一马当先，但另外三家的情况也没好到哪去：旷视科技2018-2021年上半年同期亏损超150亿，云从科技同期净亏损则为30亿，且亏损额都呈持续放大趋势。依图科技2021年财务信息并未对外公布，不过2017年至2020年上半年，同样三年半的时间周期里，累计亏损额高达72亿。</p>\n<p><b>价值研究所认为，排除股权激励产生的股份支付费用、可转换可赎回优先股公允价值的变动等财务因素，研发投入的持续上升，才是“AI四小龙”最大的烦恼。</b></p>\n<p>以亏损最严重的商汤科技为例。数据显示，2018年至2021年上半年，其研发投入分别为8.49亿、19.2亿、24.5亿和17.7亿，按照当前的增速，今年全年的投入必然会再创新高。</p>\n<p>最令人头疼的还不是投入的增加，而是研发费用率急剧上升：今年上半年已升至107.3%，整一个入不敷出。不过费用率最夸张的，还要数小弟依图科技——三年半亏72亿这个数字，是其同期总营收的480%……</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20211207/v2_231f4b85143043f98fea78e2736bc7a6_img_000\" tg-width=\"1336\" tg-height=\"875\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>（图片来自Pixabay）</p>\n<p><b>第二，随着行业竞争加剧，“AI四小龙”相对单一、固化的营收模式面临打击。</b></p>\n<p>商汤科技的四大业务板块上文已有介绍，就不再赘述。其他三条“小龙”和老大哥多少有些相似，都在围绕B端做布局：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 依图科技四大主营业务是智能公共服务、智能城市、智能医疗和智能商业，除了医疗服务之外都和商汤科技撞型；云从科技的四大业务板块里也有智慧商业和智慧治理两个B端业务，此外还有智慧出行和智慧金融；旷视科技面向消费物联网、城市物联网和供应链物联网提供智慧解决服务，和其他三者的智慧城市、智慧商业业务也有明显重叠。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>从这个角度讲，“AI四小龙”之间或多或少都会存在内卷加剧、服务同质化等问题。</b></p>\n<p>毫无疑问，在政策的推动下，智慧城市、智慧商业领域过去几年取得了长足发展。“AI四小龙”抓住这个风口，深耕B端市场，完全是正确的做法。但随着行业的进一步发展，C端正在起量，B端的增长曲线也势必会趋缓。</p>\n<p>在此背景下，商汤科技们或许得好好考虑一下，是否需要调整自己的业务布局了。</p>\n<h2>AI产业的未来不会困于B端</h2>\n<p>正如前文所言，“AI四小龙”业务都过于聚焦B端，不见得是一件好事。</p>\n<p><b>价值研究所就认为，商汤科技的智慧城市和智慧商业两大核心业务增长速度出现放缓，就跟过于依赖B端有一定关系。</b></p>\n<p>以智慧城市为例，商汤科技的收入主要来自其城市方舟平台及AI应用的软件访问许可费和软硬件一体产品销售费用，此外还有一小部分软件订阅费。而最核心的客户，则是正在进行智慧城市建设的各地、各级政府。</p>\n<p>但问题在于，目前我国智慧城市建设还遵循中央政策指引——地方政策落实具体步骤——试点城市推进——向更多城市覆盖的流程。目前，290多个试点城市已基本覆盖我国各省（自治区），且主要集中在东部沿海发达地区和中部地区。</p>\n<p>对于智慧城市的建设速度，各级政府十分重视，但也没有过于激进。在首批试点城市基本完成覆盖的情况下，它们或许需要留出更多观察时间，以便改进现有问题，再进一步推广。但对于服务供应商商汤科技来说，这就是一个略显漫长的等待过程了。</p>\n<p>旷视科技也有同样的问题。过去几年，其前五大客户一直在不停洗牌：2018年为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">蚂蚁集团</a>、飞库科技、泰源科技和未透露具体名字的公司B，2019年除了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">中国移动</a>之外全部掉出前五，2020年中国移动掉队，聊云信息、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002065\">东华软件</a>、港佳好邻居连锁便利店和伟士佳杰集团等上榜。</p>\n<p>频繁变化的名单，让旷视科技背上“客户留存度低”、“大客户流失严重”、“业务集中度低”、“服务口碑不佳”等种种质疑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7d781167feacfd9ca6f9e36337d60f\" tg-width=\"1743\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>（图片来自旷视科技官网）</p>\n<p>事实上，除了智慧城市、智慧商业等B端业务，整个CV行业还有很多扩展空间。</p>\n<p>根据弗若斯特沙利文的数据，中国和全球人工智能软件市场都将在未来几年持续增长。其中，全球市场规模预计会从2020年的305亿美元增长至2025年的1218亿美元，复合年增长率高达31.9%，中国人工智能软件市场规模则将在2025年增长至1671亿人民币。</p>\n<p>根据弗若斯特沙利文的报告，计算机视觉软件是中国人工智能软件市场中占比最大的板块，未来4年复合年增长率超过40%。对于包括“AI四小龙”在内的一众CV企业来说，未来几年的市场前景非常广阔。</p>\n<p>现在要看的，就是它们谁能抓住这个机会窗口，扭亏为盈，抢占更多市场份额。而要抢占更多市场份额，就需要“AI四小龙”走出舒适圈，开拓全新的业务线。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4580a80b775f7f25f38170023cb34df4\" tg-width=\"1352\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>（图片来自Pixabay）</p>\n<p>价值研究所就观察到，商汤科技在自己的招股书里多次提及了自己的元宇宙业务，似乎有意在当前最热的互联网风口里分得一杯羹。</p>\n<p>招股书显示，商汤科技的SenseMARS软件平台含有超过3500个AI模型，可以支持全新的元宇宙体验，包括为超过200款手机、AR及VR设备、智慧大屏和消费级无人机提供服务。</p>\n<p>不过，元宇宙仍然只是一个噱头，短期内对商汤科技的实际帮助有限。</p>\n<p><b>价值研究所认为，面向消费物联网的C端业务，反倒更值得“AI四小龙”们重视。</b></p>\n<p>“AI四小龙”之中，旷视科技就在移动终端、CIoT等领域多有建树。根据Wind统计的数据，旷视科技是“AI四小龙”中C断业务营收占比最大的一家。</p>\n<p>目前，旷视已经和多家头部智能手机厂商达成长期合作，提供智能手机设备安全和计算摄影解决方案。虽然其消费物联网业务营收不及城市物联网业务，但至少让人看到增长的希望。</p>\n<h2>写在最后</h2>\n<p>2018年4月份，商汤科技完成由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>领投的6亿美元C轮融资，成为全球估值最高AI独角兽。也是从这时候开始，商汤科技何时上市就成为业内最关注的话题，仿佛同行们都在等着商汤科技为自己试探资本市场反应，也认准只要商汤科技成了，整个行业都能获益。</p>\n<p>时移世易，如今商汤科技马上要实现上市愿望了，外界对“AI四小龙”的态度，却早已从当初的赞赏，转变为交织着失望与希望、质疑与期待的复杂情感。</p>\n<p><b>不过，AI产业潜力巨大，智能化也是大势所趋。对于普通消费者来说，“AI四小龙”们深耕的事业，依然值得鼓励。</b></p>\n<p>还记得2018年那会儿，意气风发的商汤科技CEO徐立说道：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “商汤科技是全球领先的人工智能平台公司，未来将以技术为核心，赋能更多行业。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>我们只希望，商汤科技不要忘记当初的使命，继续用技术推动AI行业的发展。</p>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>商汤摘得“AI第一股”，“AI四小龙”各有烦恼</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n商汤摘得“AI第一股”，“AI四小龙”各有烦恼\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-07 21:20 北京时间 <a href=https://36kr.com/p/1517160333106433><strong>价值研究所</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2021年，人工智能行业迎来上市潮。但以“AI四小龙”为首的国内AI企业，上市之路却十分坎坷：\n\n 今年3月份，旷视科技港股IPO计划搁浅，随后转战科创板，终于在9月份成功过会；4月份，由于提交的财务资料超过时限，云从科技IPO申请中止，直到7月份才在科创板通过首发上市申请，但和旷视一样目前都没有进一步动态；早在去年11月就向上交所递交IPO申请的依图科技，今年7月份中止IPO计划，目前也暂无...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1517160333106433\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3086dfa7a948ae5bc2992afd3f03663","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1517160333106433","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2189634336","content_text":"2021年，人工智能行业迎来上市潮。但以“AI四小龙”为首的国内AI企业，上市之路却十分坎坷：\n\n 今年3月份，旷视科技港股IPO计划搁浅，随后转战科创板，终于在9月份成功过会；4月份，由于提交的财务资料超过时限，云从科技IPO申请中止，直到7月份才在科创板通过首发上市申请，但和旷视一样目前都没有进一步动态；早在去年11月就向上交所递交IPO申请的依图科技，今年7月份中止IPO计划，目前也暂无进一步上市计划。\n\n在一众同行纷纷“让赛”的情况下，12月7日开始招股、17日即将在港敲钟上市的商汤科技，如无意外将把“AI第一股”的头衔收入囊中。\n但“AI四小龙”充满波折的上市历程，仿佛在向外界传递一个讯息：上市不是AI企业的终点，看似大热的AI产业，也并没有那么赚钱。\n\n（图片来自Pexels）\n三年半巨亏240亿，“AI第一股”的烦恼真不少\n根据港交所的官方文件，商汤科技此次IPO将发行15亿股，招股价为每股3.85-3.99港元，于12月7日至10日开放公众认购，拟募集资金最多不超60亿港元。根据前期认购信息，包括Hel Ved Capital和上汽集团在内的8名基石投资者将认购其中4.5亿美元股票。按照最新融资信息，商汤科技估值高达130亿美元。\n值得一提的是，商汤科技成功通过港交所聆讯，被认为是一次“硬技术”的胜利。\n商汤科技的“硬”，体现在强大的研发团队上。拥有麻省理工学院博士学位的商汤科技创始人汤晓鸥教授，是香港中大多媒体实验室（MMLab）的创办人，该实验室曾和麻省理工、斯坦福的实验室一起入选世界十大人工智能先锋实验室，科技实力强大。\n在汤晓鸥的带领下，商汤科技初创团队将“学历内卷”玩到了极致：\n\n 联合创始人兼CEO徐立拥有香港中大工程学博士学位；另一联合创始人兼首席科学家王晓刚是汤晓鸥在麻省理工的校友，同样有计算机科学博士学位；联合创始人、执行董事徐冰上海交大本硕连读，随后在香港中大获得了博士学位……\n\n据公开信息，截止今年6月底，商汤科技研发团队里共有40位教授、250多位博士（含博士生）、超过3500名科学家和工程师，堪称人工智能界的学历巅峰。\n不过，这群站在技术尖端的博士、科学家们，现在不得不走进一个陌生的领域，接受资本市场的严苛考验。\n提醒大家一点：在上个月更新港交所聆讯后的资料集时，外界预计商汤科技的拟募资金额接近70亿港元。和当前不超60亿的实际招股金额相比，是缩水了。\n再联想到此前招股书中传递的不利讯息，我们难免要对商汤科技IPO之后的发展增添一丝担忧：估值过高、亏损严重、营收增速放缓，都是商汤科技上市之后需要解决的难题。\n\n其中最大的烦恼，莫过于营收增速的放缓。\n数据显示，2018-2020年商汤科技总营收分别为18.53亿、30.27亿和34.46亿，今年上半年营收为16.52亿，较去年同期的8.61亿进步明显。此外，商汤科技的毛利率也在改善，从2018年的56.5%提升至今年上半年的73%，毛利润从2018年的10.47亿增长至去年的24.32亿，今年上半年暂录得12.04亿。\n乍一看，商汤科技还保持着不错的增长势头。但仔细观察就会发现，其营收同比增速已经从2019年的63.3%大幅下滑至去年的13.8%。\n\n（图片来自商汤科技招股书）\n营收增速放缓的背后，自然有疫情等客观因素的影响。但商汤科技核心业务面临增长瓶颈、新业务表现不佳，也是不可忽视的事实。\n从营收结构来看，智慧商业和智慧城市是商汤科技的核心业务，营收占比合计超过85%。但过去两年，这两大业务的营收增速都呈现断崖式下滑：\n\n 智慧商业业务和智慧城市业务2019年营收分别为12.03亿和12.7亿，同比增速则分别录得41%和139%；但2020，两大业务板块的营收分别为14.85亿和13.69亿，同比增速骤降至23%和7%。\n\n\n不幸的是，核心业务增速放缓之余，智慧生活和智能汽车两个业务板块的表现也没有太大起色。今年上半年，商汤科技智慧生活业务营收1.48亿，同比下滑5.13%；智能汽车业务营收7060万，同比仅微增4.59%。\n在价值研究所看来，智慧生活和智慧城市业务营收出现起伏，和市场大环境有一定关系；但一度被寄予厚望的智能汽车业务更多是自身发展有局限，现阶段确实很难为商汤科技带来太大效益。\n一方面，智能汽车行业技术壁垒高，且竞争异常激烈：各大汽车厂商都在开发自己的智慧驾驶解决方案，华为、百度等巨头也强势入局，在技术和资本上都没有优势的商汤科技很难抢占更多市场份额。\n另一方面，智能汽车、自动驾驶都处在商业化初期，各个玩家都还在烧钱——本身就面临巨额亏损的商汤科技，很难有充足的资本支持这一场持久战。\n\n（图片来自商汤科技官网）\n核心业务增速放缓、新业务不给力加上研发投入的日益增长，自然会给商汤科技带来更大的成本压力。\n不过，令商汤科技稍感安慰的是，遭遇困境的不止它自己。被业界人士寄予厚望的“AI四小龙”另外三名成员——旷视科技、云从科技和依图科技，也各有各的烦恼。\n“AI四小龙”，各有各烦恼\n从行业集中度来看，“AI四小龙”在国内计算机视觉软件（CV）市场的统治地位非常稳固。而在“AI四小龙”的内部对比中，商汤科技是当仁不让的老大哥。\n来自国际调查机构弗若斯特沙利文的报告显示，截止2020年，商汤科技在国内CV市场占有率为17.4%，占据首位。紧随其后的旷视科技市占率也达到了15.2%，云从科技和依图科技则分别为9.8%和9%。“AI四小龙”加起来占据CV市场半壁江山，行业集中度不可谓不高。\n而在营收、毛利润、毛利率、研发团队规模等一系列数据的横向对比中，商汤科技都在“AI四小龙”中拔得头筹。\n就拿最基本的营收数据来说。商汤科技2020年录得34.46亿，旷视科技同期营收仅为13.91亿，不及商汤科技的一半；云从科技2020年营收为7.55亿，对比旷视又打了个五折。\n实力最弱的小弟依图科技和老大哥商汤科技的差距就更加夸张了：根据递交给港交所的招股书，依图科技2018年-2020年上半年总营收不及15亿……\n当然，将对比范围扩大一点，跳出CV市场，我们还是能看到“AI四小龙”和海康威视、科大讯飞、大华股份等AI巨头之间的差距。\n以研发团队规模而论，商汤科技当前研发人员约为3500人，仅为海康威视的17%，大华股份的40%。\n\n（图片来自华泰证券）\n不过，在“AI四小龙”内部当上老大，并不值得商汤科技太过高兴——毕竟它们都还没有摆脱亏损命运，只能算是“难兄难弟”。深入分析“AI四小龙”的业务布局之后，价值研究所认为，它们之所以深陷亏损泥淖、营收增速放缓，有几个相似的原因。\n第一，研发过于烧钱，拉低毛利率的同时也拉长了回报周期。\n招股书显示，商汤科技2018-2020年亏损分别为34.33亿、49.68亿和121.58亿，今年上半年亏损额也高达37.13亿，三年半合计巨亏超过240亿。其中，2020年亏损同比增速高达200%，揭示了商汤科技在成本控制上的缺陷。\n\n营收规模最大的商汤科技在亏损额上自然是一马当先，但另外三家的情况也没好到哪去：旷视科技2018-2021年上半年同期亏损超150亿，云从科技同期净亏损则为30亿，且亏损额都呈持续放大趋势。依图科技2021年财务信息并未对外公布，不过2017年至2020年上半年，同样三年半的时间周期里，累计亏损额高达72亿。\n价值研究所认为，排除股权激励产生的股份支付费用、可转换可赎回优先股公允价值的变动等财务因素，研发投入的持续上升，才是“AI四小龙”最大的烦恼。\n以亏损最严重的商汤科技为例。数据显示，2018年至2021年上半年，其研发投入分别为8.49亿、19.2亿、24.5亿和17.7亿，按照当前的增速，今年全年的投入必然会再创新高。\n最令人头疼的还不是投入的增加，而是研发费用率急剧上升：今年上半年已升至107.3%，整一个入不敷出。不过费用率最夸张的，还要数小弟依图科技——三年半亏72亿这个数字，是其同期总营收的480%……\n\n（图片来自Pixabay）\n第二，随着行业竞争加剧，“AI四小龙”相对单一、固化的营收模式面临打击。\n商汤科技的四大业务板块上文已有介绍，就不再赘述。其他三条“小龙”和老大哥多少有些相似，都在围绕B端做布局：\n\n 依图科技四大主营业务是智能公共服务、智能城市、智能医疗和智能商业，除了医疗服务之外都和商汤科技撞型；云从科技的四大业务板块里也有智慧商业和智慧治理两个B端业务，此外还有智慧出行和智慧金融；旷视科技面向消费物联网、城市物联网和供应链物联网提供智慧解决服务，和其他三者的智慧城市、智慧商业业务也有明显重叠。\n\n从这个角度讲，“AI四小龙”之间或多或少都会存在内卷加剧、服务同质化等问题。\n毫无疑问，在政策的推动下，智慧城市、智慧商业领域过去几年取得了长足发展。“AI四小龙”抓住这个风口，深耕B端市场，完全是正确的做法。但随着行业的进一步发展，C端正在起量，B端的增长曲线也势必会趋缓。\n在此背景下，商汤科技们或许得好好考虑一下，是否需要调整自己的业务布局了。\nAI产业的未来不会困于B端\n正如前文所言，“AI四小龙”业务都过于聚焦B端，不见得是一件好事。\n价值研究所就认为，商汤科技的智慧城市和智慧商业两大核心业务增长速度出现放缓，就跟过于依赖B端有一定关系。\n以智慧城市为例，商汤科技的收入主要来自其城市方舟平台及AI应用的软件访问许可费和软硬件一体产品销售费用，此外还有一小部分软件订阅费。而最核心的客户，则是正在进行智慧城市建设的各地、各级政府。\n但问题在于，目前我国智慧城市建设还遵循中央政策指引——地方政策落实具体步骤——试点城市推进——向更多城市覆盖的流程。目前，290多个试点城市已基本覆盖我国各省（自治区），且主要集中在东部沿海发达地区和中部地区。\n对于智慧城市的建设速度，各级政府十分重视，但也没有过于激进。在首批试点城市基本完成覆盖的情况下，它们或许需要留出更多观察时间，以便改进现有问题，再进一步推广。但对于服务供应商商汤科技来说，这就是一个略显漫长的等待过程了。\n旷视科技也有同样的问题。过去几年，其前五大客户一直在不停洗牌：2018年为中国移动、蚂蚁集团、飞库科技、泰源科技和未透露具体名字的公司B，2019年除了中国移动之外全部掉出前五，2020年中国移动掉队，聊云信息、东华软件、港佳好邻居连锁便利店和伟士佳杰集团等上榜。\n频繁变化的名单，让旷视科技背上“客户留存度低”、“大客户流失严重”、“业务集中度低”、“服务口碑不佳”等种种质疑。\n\n（图片来自旷视科技官网）\n事实上，除了智慧城市、智慧商业等B端业务，整个CV行业还有很多扩展空间。\n根据弗若斯特沙利文的数据，中国和全球人工智能软件市场都将在未来几年持续增长。其中，全球市场规模预计会从2020年的305亿美元增长至2025年的1218亿美元，复合年增长率高达31.9%，中国人工智能软件市场规模则将在2025年增长至1671亿人民币。\n根据弗若斯特沙利文的报告，计算机视觉软件是中国人工智能软件市场中占比最大的板块，未来4年复合年增长率超过40%。对于包括“AI四小龙”在内的一众CV企业来说，未来几年的市场前景非常广阔。\n现在要看的，就是它们谁能抓住这个机会窗口，扭亏为盈，抢占更多市场份额。而要抢占更多市场份额，就需要“AI四小龙”走出舒适圈，开拓全新的业务线。\n\n（图片来自Pixabay）\n价值研究所就观察到，商汤科技在自己的招股书里多次提及了自己的元宇宙业务，似乎有意在当前最热的互联网风口里分得一杯羹。\n招股书显示，商汤科技的SenseMARS软件平台含有超过3500个AI模型，可以支持全新的元宇宙体验，包括为超过200款手机、AR及VR设备、智慧大屏和消费级无人机提供服务。\n不过，元宇宙仍然只是一个噱头，短期内对商汤科技的实际帮助有限。\n价值研究所认为，面向消费物联网的C端业务，反倒更值得“AI四小龙”们重视。\n“AI四小龙”之中，旷视科技就在移动终端、CIoT等领域多有建树。根据Wind统计的数据，旷视科技是“AI四小龙”中C断业务营收占比最大的一家。\n目前，旷视已经和多家头部智能手机厂商达成长期合作，提供智能手机设备安全和计算摄影解决方案。虽然其消费物联网业务营收不及城市物联网业务，但至少让人看到增长的希望。\n写在最后\n2018年4月份，商汤科技完成由阿里巴巴领投的6亿美元C轮融资，成为全球估值最高AI独角兽。也是从这时候开始，商汤科技何时上市就成为业内最关注的话题，仿佛同行们都在等着商汤科技为自己试探资本市场反应，也认准只要商汤科技成了，整个行业都能获益。\n时移世易，如今商汤科技马上要实现上市愿望了，外界对“AI四小龙”的态度，却早已从当初的赞赏，转变为交织着失望与希望、质疑与期待的复杂情感。\n不过，AI产业潜力巨大，智能化也是大势所趋。对于普通消费者来说，“AI四小龙”们深耕的事业，依然值得鼓励。\n还记得2018年那会儿，意气风发的商汤科技CEO徐立说道：\n\n “商汤科技是全球领先的人工智能平台公司，未来将以技术为核心，赋能更多行业。”\n\n我们只希望，商汤科技不要忘记当初的使命，继续用技术推动AI行业的发展。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"90006":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875427327,"gmtCreate":1637680338433,"gmtModify":1637680338593,"author":{"id":"3574148235876178","authorId":"3574148235876178","name":"晚安美梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34276edc2e67103fc93cfbaf5264eac6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574148235876178","idStr":"3574148235876178"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不错","listText":"不错","text":"不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875427327","repostId":"1135567250","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135567250","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637655980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135567250?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 16:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"一图读懂：网易云音乐港股IPO，老虎打新亮点多","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135567250","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"认购亮点：\n1️⃣【付费率高】在线音乐付费用户数增速行业第一，付费率14.9%行业第一。\n2️⃣【用户年轻化】超9成活跃用户为90后、00后。\n3️⃣【过亿月活】截至2021年前三季度，月活用户数1.","content":"<p><b>认购亮点：</b></p>\n<p>1️⃣【付费率高】在线音乐付费用户数增速行业第一，付费率14.9%行业第一。</p>\n<p>2️⃣【用户年轻化】超9成活跃用户为90后、00后。</p>\n<p>3️⃣【过亿月活】截至2021年前三季度，月活用户数1.84亿。</p>\n<p>老虎提供最高20倍杠杆融资，额度充足！！！</p>\n<p>认购路径：【老虎证券APP】-【交易】-【IPO】-【港股】</p>\n<p>【<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\">打新入口</a>】</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6013111b44cd7a59699c1c94cf9d6184\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"9785\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-23 16:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>认购亮点：</b></p>\n<p>1️⃣【付费率高】在线音乐付费用户数增速行业第一，付费率14.9%行业第一。</p>\n<p>2️⃣【用户年轻化】超9成活跃用户为90后、00后。</p>\n<p>3️⃣【过亿月活】截至2021年前三季度，月活用户数1.84亿。</p>\n<p>老虎提供最高20倍杠杆融资，额度充足！！！</p>\n<p>认购路径：【老虎证券APP】-【交易】-【IPO】-【港股】</p>\n<p>【<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\">打新入口</a>】</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6013111b44cd7a59699c1c94cf9d6184\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"9785\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f82d7cf4d912291b0de1e2e54d31692","relate_stocks":{"09899":"网易云音乐"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135567250","content_text":"认购亮点：\n1️⃣【付费率高】在线音乐付费用户数增速行业第一，付费率14.9%行业第一。\n2️⃣【用户年轻化】超9成活跃用户为90后、00后。\n3️⃣【过亿月活】截至2021年前三季度，月活用户数1.84亿。\n老虎提供最高20倍杠杆融资，额度充足！！！\n认购路径：【老虎证券APP】-【交易】-【IPO】-【港股】\n【打新入口】","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09899":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875427968,"gmtCreate":1637680332949,"gmtModify":1637680333112,"author":{"id":"3574148235876178","authorId":"3574148235876178","name":"晚安美梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34276edc2e67103fc93cfbaf5264eac6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574148235876178","idStr":"3574148235876178"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875427968","repostId":"1135567250","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135567250","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637655980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135567250?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 16:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"一图读懂：网易云音乐港股IPO，老虎打新亮点多","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135567250","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"认购亮点：\n1️⃣【付费率高】在线音乐付费用户数增速行业第一，付费率14.9%行业第一。\n2️⃣【用户年轻化】超9成活跃用户为90后、00后。\n3️⃣【过亿月活】截至2021年前三季度，月活用户数1.","content":"<p><b>认购亮点：</b></p>\n<p>1️⃣【付费率高】在线音乐付费用户数增速行业第一，付费率14.9%行业第一。</p>\n<p>2️⃣【用户年轻化】超9成活跃用户为90后、00后。</p>\n<p>3️⃣【过亿月活】截至2021年前三季度，月活用户数1.84亿。</p>\n<p>老虎提供最高20倍杠杆融资，额度充足！！！</p>\n<p>认购路径：【老虎证券APP】-【交易】-【IPO】-【港股】</p>\n<p>【<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\">打新入口</a>】</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6013111b44cd7a59699c1c94cf9d6184\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"9785\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-23 16:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>认购亮点：</b></p>\n<p>1️⃣【付费率高】在线音乐付费用户数增速行业第一，付费率14.9%行业第一。</p>\n<p>2️⃣【用户年轻化】超9成活跃用户为90后、00后。</p>\n<p>3️⃣【过亿月活】截至2021年前三季度，月活用户数1.84亿。</p>\n<p>老虎提供最高20倍杠杆融资，额度充足！！！</p>\n<p>认购路径：【老虎证券APP】-【交易】-【IPO】-【港股】</p>\n<p>【<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\">打新入口</a>】</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6013111b44cd7a59699c1c94cf9d6184\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"9785\" 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