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Keatz

Keatz

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2021-07-23

Good

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2021-07-23

The king

Microsoft Stock Hits New High as Street Raises Price Targets Ahead of Earnings<blockquote>华尔街在财报公布前上调目标价，微软股价创下新高</blockquote>

2021-07-23

Go tech!

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2021-07-06

$SKLZ 20210716 23.0 CALL(SKLZ)$🎉🎉

2021-06-29

Gogogo!

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2021-06-29

Let’s go!

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2021-06-28

Wow.. gogogo!

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2021-06-28

Hope for the best

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2021-06-28

Another IPO

US IPO Week Ahead: DiDi makes its billion-dollar debut in a 17 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：滴滴在 IPO 第 17 周首次筹集数十亿美元</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Buy!

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2021-06-27

Ouch

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2021-06-27

👍🏻

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2021-06-27

Netflix.. everyone love this

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2021-06-27

Gogogo

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2021-06-27

Buy if go lower

Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Oh no~

Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华 “召回 ”影响近 30 万辆汽车。要知道什么。</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Oh no~

Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华 “召回 ”影响近 30 万辆汽车。要知道什么。</blockquote>

2021-06-23

Aisk

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2021-06-23

Let’s go!

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2021-06-23

Nah

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king","listText":"The king","text":"The king","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175933502","repostId":"1136017934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136017934","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627000834,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1136017934?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Stock Hits New High as Street Raises Price Targets Ahead of Earnings<blockquote>华尔街在财报公布前上调目标价，微软股价创下新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136017934","media":"Barrons","summary":"Amid growing signs of an acceleration of corporate IT spending, Wall Street analysts are ratcheting ","content":"<p>Amid growing signs of an acceleration of corporate IT spending, Wall Street analysts are ratcheting up expectations for Microsoft, which is due to report fiscal-fourth-quarter results on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>随着越来越多的迹象表明企业 IT 支出加速，华尔街分析师正在提高对微软的预期，该公司将于周二公布第四财季业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish sentiment has driven Microsoft shares (ticker: MSFT) to a record high. The stock is up 1.7%, at $286.11, in recent trading. It is up nearly 29% year to date, driving the company’s market cap to $2.1 trillion, trailing only Apple (AAPL) at $2.5 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>看涨情绪推动微软股价（股票代码：MSFT）创下历史新高。该股在最近的交易中上涨了 1.7%，至 286.11 美元。今年迄今为止，该公司的市值已上涨近 29%，达到 2.1 万亿美元，仅次于苹果（AAPL）的 2.5 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Street consensus calls for Microsoft revenue of $44.1 billion and profits of $1.90 a share. Microsoft provides guidance for each of its three reporting segments; at the top of the projected range for each, revenues would be $44.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一致认为微软营收为 441 亿美元，每股利润为 1.90 美元。微软为其三个报告分部中的每一个提供指导；在预计范围的顶部，收入将达到 445 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft forecast June-quarter revenue from its Productivity and Business Processes segment (which includes Office) of $13.8 billion to $14.05 billion; for Intelligent Cloud (including Azure), $16.2 billion to $16.45 billion; and for More Personal Computing (including Windows and Xbox), $13.6 billion to $14 billion.</p><p><blockquote>微软预计 6 月季度生产力和业务流程部门（包括 Office）的收入为 138 亿至 140.5 亿美元；对于智能云（包括Azure），162亿美元至164.5亿美元；而对于更多的个人计算（包括Windows和Xbox），136亿至140亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the September quarter, the Street consensus calls for revenue of $42.5 billion and profits of $1.95 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9 月份季度，华尔街一致评级收入为 425 亿美元，每股利润为 1.95 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s software analysts have been busily surveying Microsoft’s partners and resellers for clues to the quarter, and they’re all finding reasons for optimism.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的软件分析师们一直在忙着调查微软的合作伙伴和经销商，寻找本季度的线索，他们都在寻找乐观的理由。</blockquote></p><p> Citigroup analyst Tyler Radke on Thursday repeated his Buy rating on Microsoft shares, jumping his target price to a Street-high $378 from $310, after a survey of IT resellers. His new target implies a 35% upside from Wednesday’s closing level. Radke expects a strong finish to the company’s fiscal year, driven by recovering IT budgets, reacceleration in Azure, and continued strength in personal computer sales. He writes that Microsoft remains his favorite pick in the megacap software sector, with “multiple levers” for double-digit growth.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师泰勒·拉德克 (Tyler Radke) 周四重申了对微软股票的买入评级，在对 IT 经销商进行调查后，将目标价从 310 美元上调至华尔街高点 378 美元。他的新目标意味着比周三收盘价上涨 35%。拉德克预计，在 IT 预算恢复、Azure 业务重新加速以及个人电脑销售持续强劲的推动下，公司本财年将取得强劲收官。他写道，微软仍然是他在大型软件行业最喜欢的选择，拥有实现两位数增长的 “多重杠杆 ”。</blockquote></p><p> BofA Securities analyst Brad Sills likewise reiterates a Buy rating after a series of “channel checks,” while upping his target to $325 from $305. He thinks revenue could beat consensus by 2% to 3%, driven by strength in Azure and Office 365 demand. Sills believes Azure can continue to grow at better than 50%, following 59% growth in the March quarter. (He notes that the company gets a relatively easy comparison on Azure, with 47% growth in the year-earlier quarter.)</p><p><blockquote>美国银行证券分析师布拉德-西尔斯（Brad Sills）在经过一系列 “渠道检查 ”后同样重申了买入评级，同时将目标价从 305 美元上调至 325 美元。他认为，在 Azure 和 Office 365 需求强劲的推动下，收入可能会比市场预期高出 2% 至 3%。Sills 认为，继 3 月份季度增长 59% 之后，Azure 可以继续以超过 50% 的速度增长。（他指出，该公司在 Azure 上的比较相对容易，去年同期增长了 47%。）</blockquote></p><p> KeyBanc analyst Michael Turits maintains his Overweight rating on Microsoft, while lifting his target to $330 from $305. His call is part of a broadly optimistic take on June quarter IT spending based on a reseller survey. He says respondents now see 5.6% growth in 2021 IT budgets, up from 4.6% in the first-quarter version of the same survey. Turits writes that the survey found Microsoft’s strategic importance is increasing. He also raised targets on Arista Networks (ANET), Commvault (CVLT), Fortinet (FTNT), Okta (OKTA), Oracle (ORCL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Vonage Holdings (VG).</p><p><blockquote>KeyBanc 分析师 Michael Turits 维持微软的跑赢大盘评级，同时将目标评级从 305 美元上调至 330 美元。根据经销商调查，他的看涨期权是对 6 月份季度 IT 支出普遍乐观看法的一部分。他表示，受访者现在预计 2021 年 IT 预算将增长 5.6%，高于同一调查第一季度版本的 4.6%。图里茨写道，调查发现微软的战略重要性正在增加。他还提出了 Arista Networks (ANET)、Commvault (CVLT)、Fortinet (FTNT)、Okta (OKTA)、Oracle (ORCL)、Palo Alto Networks (PANW) 和 Vonage Holdings (VG) 的目标。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Stock Hits New High as Street Raises Price Targets Ahead of Earnings<blockquote>华尔街在财报公布前上调目标价，微软股价创下新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Stock Hits New High as Street Raises Price Targets Ahead of Earnings<blockquote>华尔街在财报公布前上调目标价，微软股价创下新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amid growing signs of an acceleration of corporate IT spending, Wall Street analysts are ratcheting up expectations for Microsoft, which is due to report fiscal-fourth-quarter results on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>随着越来越多的迹象表明企业 IT 支出加速，华尔街分析师正在提高对微软的预期，该公司将于周二公布第四财季业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish sentiment has driven Microsoft shares (ticker: MSFT) to a record high. The stock is up 1.7%, at $286.11, in recent trading. It is up nearly 29% year to date, driving the company’s market cap to $2.1 trillion, trailing only Apple (AAPL) at $2.5 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>看涨情绪推动微软股价（股票代码：MSFT）创下历史新高。该股在最近的交易中上涨了 1.7%，至 286.11 美元。今年迄今为止，该公司的市值已上涨近 29%，达到 2.1 万亿美元，仅次于苹果（AAPL）的 2.5 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Street consensus calls for Microsoft revenue of $44.1 billion and profits of $1.90 a share. Microsoft provides guidance for each of its three reporting segments; at the top of the projected range for each, revenues would be $44.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一致认为微软营收为 441 亿美元，每股利润为 1.90 美元。微软为其三个报告分部中的每一个提供指导；在预计范围的顶部，收入将达到 445 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft forecast June-quarter revenue from its Productivity and Business Processes segment (which includes Office) of $13.8 billion to $14.05 billion; for Intelligent Cloud (including Azure), $16.2 billion to $16.45 billion; and for More Personal Computing (including Windows and Xbox), $13.6 billion to $14 billion.</p><p><blockquote>微软预计 6 月季度生产力和业务流程部门（包括 Office）的收入为 138 亿至 140.5 亿美元；对于智能云（包括Azure），162亿美元至164.5亿美元；而对于更多的个人计算（包括Windows和Xbox），136亿至140亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the September quarter, the Street consensus calls for revenue of $42.5 billion and profits of $1.95 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9 月份季度，华尔街一致评级收入为 425 亿美元，每股利润为 1.95 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s software analysts have been busily surveying Microsoft’s partners and resellers for clues to the quarter, and they’re all finding reasons for optimism.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的软件分析师们一直在忙着调查微软的合作伙伴和经销商，寻找本季度的线索，他们都在寻找乐观的理由。</blockquote></p><p> Citigroup analyst Tyler Radke on Thursday repeated his Buy rating on Microsoft shares, jumping his target price to a Street-high $378 from $310, after a survey of IT resellers. His new target implies a 35% upside from Wednesday’s closing level. Radke expects a strong finish to the company’s fiscal year, driven by recovering IT budgets, reacceleration in Azure, and continued strength in personal computer sales. He writes that Microsoft remains his favorite pick in the megacap software sector, with “multiple levers” for double-digit growth.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师泰勒·拉德克 (Tyler Radke) 周四重申了对微软股票的买入评级，在对 IT 经销商进行调查后，将目标价从 310 美元上调至华尔街高点 378 美元。他的新目标意味着比周三收盘价上涨 35%。拉德克预计，在 IT 预算恢复、Azure 业务重新加速以及个人电脑销售持续强劲的推动下，公司本财年将取得强劲收官。他写道，微软仍然是他在大型软件行业最喜欢的选择，拥有实现两位数增长的 “多重杠杆 ”。</blockquote></p><p> BofA Securities analyst Brad Sills likewise reiterates a Buy rating after a series of “channel checks,” while upping his target to $325 from $305. He thinks revenue could beat consensus by 2% to 3%, driven by strength in Azure and Office 365 demand. Sills believes Azure can continue to grow at better than 50%, following 59% growth in the March quarter. (He notes that the company gets a relatively easy comparison on Azure, with 47% growth in the year-earlier quarter.)</p><p><blockquote>美国银行证券分析师布拉德-西尔斯（Brad Sills）在经过一系列 “渠道检查 ”后同样重申了买入评级，同时将目标价从 305 美元上调至 325 美元。他认为，在 Azure 和 Office 365 需求强劲的推动下，收入可能会比市场预期高出 2% 至 3%。Sills 认为，继 3 月份季度增长 59% 之后，Azure 可以继续以超过 50% 的速度增长。（他指出，该公司在 Azure 上的比较相对容易，去年同期增长了 47%。）</blockquote></p><p> KeyBanc analyst Michael Turits maintains his Overweight rating on Microsoft, while lifting his target to $330 from $305. His call is part of a broadly optimistic take on June quarter IT spending based on a reseller survey. He says respondents now see 5.6% growth in 2021 IT budgets, up from 4.6% in the first-quarter version of the same survey. Turits writes that the survey found Microsoft’s strategic importance is increasing. He also raised targets on Arista Networks (ANET), Commvault (CVLT), Fortinet (FTNT), Okta (OKTA), Oracle (ORCL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Vonage Holdings (VG).</p><p><blockquote>KeyBanc 分析师 Michael Turits 维持微软的跑赢大盘评级，同时将目标评级从 305 美元上调至 330 美元。根据经销商调查，他的看涨期权是对 6 月份季度 IT 支出普遍乐观看法的一部分。他表示，受访者现在预计 2021 年 IT 预算将增长 5.6%，高于同一调查第一季度版本的 4.6%。图里茨写道，调查发现微软的战略重要性正在增加。他还提出了 Arista Networks (ANET)、Commvault (CVLT)、Fortinet (FTNT)、Okta (OKTA)、Oracle (ORCL)、Palo Alto Networks (PANW) 和 Vonage Holdings (VG) 的目标。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-stock-hits-new-high-as-street-raises-price-targets-ahead-of-earnings-51626965343?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-stock-hits-new-high-as-street-raises-price-targets-ahead-of-earnings-51626965343?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136017934","content_text":"Amid growing signs of an acceleration of corporate IT spending, Wall Street analysts are ratcheting up expectations for Microsoft, which is due to report fiscal-fourth-quarter results on Tuesday.\nThe bullish sentiment has driven Microsoft shares (ticker: MSFT) to a record high. The stock is up 1.7%, at $286.11, in recent trading. It is up nearly 29% year to date, driving the company’s market cap to $2.1 trillion, trailing only Apple (AAPL) at $2.5 trillion.\nStreet consensus calls for Microsoft revenue of $44.1 billion and profits of $1.90 a share. Microsoft provides guidance for each of its three reporting segments; at the top of the projected range for each, revenues would be $44.5 billion.\nMicrosoft forecast June-quarter revenue from its Productivity and Business Processes segment (which includes Office) of $13.8 billion to $14.05 billion; for Intelligent Cloud (including Azure), $16.2 billion to $16.45 billion; and for More Personal Computing (including Windows and Xbox), $13.6 billion to $14 billion.\nFor the September quarter, the Street consensus calls for revenue of $42.5 billion and profits of $1.95 a share.\nWall Street’s software analysts have been busily surveying Microsoft’s partners and resellers for clues to the quarter, and they’re all finding reasons for optimism.\nCitigroup analyst Tyler Radke on Thursday repeated his Buy rating on Microsoft shares, jumping his target price to a Street-high $378 from $310, after a survey of IT resellers. His new target implies a 35% upside from Wednesday’s closing level. Radke expects a strong finish to the company’s fiscal year, driven by recovering IT budgets, reacceleration in Azure, and continued strength in personal computer sales. He writes that Microsoft remains his favorite pick in the megacap software sector, with “multiple levers” for double-digit growth.\nBofA Securities analyst Brad Sills likewise reiterates a Buy rating after a series of “channel checks,” while upping his target to $325 from $305. He thinks revenue could beat consensus by 2% to 3%, driven by strength in Azure and Office 365 demand. Sills believes Azure can continue to grow at better than 50%, following 59% growth in the March quarter. (He notes that the company gets a relatively easy comparison on Azure, with 47% growth in the year-earlier quarter.)\nKeyBanc analyst Michael Turits maintains his Overweight rating on Microsoft, while lifting his target to $330 from $305. His call is part of a broadly optimistic take on June quarter IT spending based on a reseller survey. He says respondents now see 5.6% growth in 2021 IT budgets, up from 4.6% in the first-quarter version of the same survey. Turits writes that the survey found Microsoft’s strategic importance is increasing. He also raised targets on Arista Networks (ANET), Commvault (CVLT), Fortinet (FTNT), Okta (OKTA), Oracle (ORCL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Vonage Holdings (VG).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175933350,"gmtCreate":1627001642170,"gmtModify":1631888254833,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go tech!","listText":"Go tech!","text":"Go tech!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175933350","repostId":"1164478982","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157877902,"gmtCreate":1625579278206,"gmtModify":1631886529141,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$SKLZ 20210716 23.0 CALL(SKLZ)$</a>🎉🎉","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$SKLZ 20210716 23.0 CALL(SKLZ)$</a>🎉🎉","text":"$SKLZ 20210716 23.0 CALL(SKLZ)$🎉🎉","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea01df6a7ab2ecf443f8603629b40056","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157877902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159092300,"gmtCreate":1624930311200,"gmtModify":1631888254842,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogogo!","listText":"Gogogo!","text":"Gogogo!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159092300","repostId":"1168491065","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159096257,"gmtCreate":1624930291779,"gmtModify":1631888254853,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Let’s go!","listText":"Let’s go!","text":"Let’s go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159096257","repostId":"2147837316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150010859,"gmtCreate":1624874430771,"gmtModify":1631888254869,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow.. gogogo!","listText":"Wow.. gogogo!","text":"Wow.. gogogo!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150010859","repostId":"1131916495","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150010988,"gmtCreate":1624874411844,"gmtModify":1631884322984,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope for the best&nbsp;","listText":"Hope for the best&nbsp;","text":"Hope for the best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150010988","repostId":"2146007118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150037631,"gmtCreate":1624874384723,"gmtModify":1631888254883,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Another IPO","listText":"Another IPO","text":"Another IPO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150037631","repostId":"1150095060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150095060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624874134,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1150095060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 17:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: DiDi makes its billion-dollar debut in a 17 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：滴滴在 IPO 第 17 周首次筹集数十亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150095060","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"17 IPOs are slated to raise $9.1 billion in this week, led by long-awaited Chinese ride-hailing giant $DiDi Global Inc.$.DiDi plans to raise $3.9 billion at a $67.5 billion market cap. DiDi is China’s dominant ride-hailing app, with 15 million drivers across 4,000 cities and towns. The unprofitable company saw revenue more than double in the 1Q21 as its business recovered post-pandemic.New and existing investors intend to purchase $1.3 billion of the IPO.Cybersecurity platform $SentinelOne, Inc$","content":"<p>17 IPOs are slated to raise $9.1 billion in this week, led by long-awaited Chinese ride-hailing giant<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">DiDi Global Inc.</a>.</b></p><p><blockquote>由期待已久的中国打车巨头牵头，本周将有 17 家 IPO 预计筹集 91 亿美元<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴全球公司。</a>.</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>DiDi</b>&nbsp;plans to raise $3.9 billion at a $67.5 billion market cap. DiDi is China’s dominant ride-hailing app, with 15 million drivers across 4,000 cities and towns. The unprofitable company saw revenue more than double in the 1Q21 as its business recovered post-pandemic.New and existing investors intend to purchase $1.3 billion of the IPO.</p><p><blockquote><b>滴滴</b>计划以 675 亿美元的市值筹集 39 亿美元。滴滴是中国占主导地位的打车应用，在 4000 个城镇拥有 1500 万司机。随着业务在大流行后复苏，这家未盈利的公司在2021年第一季度的收入增加了一倍多。新老投资者打算购买 13 亿美元的 IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Cybersecurity platform&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S\">SentinelOne, Inc</a></b> plans to raise $880 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. SentinelOne's Singularity Platform is an AI-powered extended detection and response platform that ingests, correlates and queries petabytes of structured and unstructured data to provide autonomous cybersecurity defense. Fast growing and unprofitable, the company had over 4,700 customers as of 4/30/21, up from 2,700 a year prior.</p><p><blockquote>网络安全平台<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S\">哨兵龙公司</a></b>计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.8亿美元。SentinelOne的Singularity平台是一个人工智能驱动的扩展检测和响应平台，可以接收、关联和查询PB级的结构化和非结构化数据，以提供自主网络安全防御。该公司快速增长且无利可图，截至 2021 年 4 月 30 日，该公司拥有超过 4,700 名客户，高于一年前的 2,700 名。</blockquote></p><p> Turkish e-commerce platform&nbsp;<b>D-MARKET Electronic Services &amp; Trading</b>(HEPS) plans to raise $681 million at a $3.9 billion market cap. Operating under the name Hepsiburada, the company connected 33 million members, 9 million Active Customers, and a base of approximately 45 thousand Active Merchants in 2020. The company is fast growing but EBITDA swung negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>土耳其电子商务平台<b>D-MARKET 电子服务与交易</b>(HEPS) 计划以 39 亿美元的市值筹集 6.81 亿美元。该公司以Hepsiburada的名义运营，2020年连接了3300万会员、900万活跃客户和约4.5万活跃商户。该公司发展迅速，但2021年第一季度的 EBITDA 为负值。</blockquote></p><p> Doughnut brand&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNUT\"><b>Krispy Kreme, Inc.</a> </b>plans to raise $600 million at a $3.8 billion market cap. Krispy Kreme is an omni-channel business operating through a network of doughnut shops, partnerships with retailers, and an e-Commerce and delivery business. The company has a long track record and strong brand awareness, though its growth strategy is unproven.</p><p><blockquote>甜甜圈品牌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNUT\"><b>克里斯皮奶油公司。</b></a>计划以38亿美元的市值筹集6亿美元。Krispy Kreme是一家全渠道企业，通过甜甜圈店网络、与零售商的合作伙伴关系以及电子商务和送货业务运营。该公司拥有悠久的业绩记录和强大的品牌知名度，尽管其增长战略尚未得到证实。</blockquote></p><p> Legal solutions provider&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LZ\">LegalZoom.com, Inc</a> </b>plans to raise $488 million at a $5.3 billion market cap. LegalZoom states that it is a leading online platform for legal and compliance solutions, claiming that 10% of new LLCs and 5% of new corporations in the US were formed via LegalZoom in 2020. Profitable on an EBITDA basis in the 1Q21, the company operates across all 50 states and over 3,000 counties in the US.</p><p><blockquote>法律解决方案提供商<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LZ\">LegalZoom.com公司</a></b>计划以53亿美元的市值筹集4.88亿美元。LegalZoom表示，它是法律和合规解决方案的领先在线平台，声称2020年美国10%的新有限责任公司和5%的新公司是通过LegalZoom成立的。该公司在2021年第一季度的EBITDA基础上盈利，业务遍及美国所有50个州和3,000多个县。</blockquote></p><p> Identity verification platform&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YOU\">Clear Secure, Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $376 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Clear Secure's secure identity platform uses to automate the identity verification process, with main offerings including CLEAR Plus, a consumer aviation subscription service, and two mobile apps. As of 5/31/21, Clear Secure's network included 38 airports, 26 sports and entertainment partners, and 67 Health Pass-enabled partners.</p><p><blockquote>身份验证平台<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YOU\">清晰安全公司。</a></b>计划以 41 亿美元的市值筹集 3.76 亿美元。Clear Secure的安全身份平台用于自动化身份验证过程，主要产品包括消费者航空订阅服务Clear Plus和两个移动应用程序。截至2021年5月31日，Clear Secure的网络包括38个机场、26个体育和娱乐合作伙伴以及67个支持健康通行证的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese grocery delivery platform&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong (Cayman) Limited</a> </b>plans to raise $343 million at a $6.0 billion market cap. With fresh groceries as its core product categories, Dingdong states that it is the fastest growing on-demand e-commerce company in China. Unprofitable with explosive growth, the company had a 10% share of the on-demand e-commerce market by GMV in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中国杂货配送平台<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚（开曼）有限公司</a></b>计划以 60 亿美元的市值筹集 3.43 亿美元。以生鲜杂货为核心产品类别，叮咚自称是中国发展最快的按需电商公司。该公司未盈利但呈爆炸式增长，2020年按GMV计算，该公司在按需电子商务市场的份额为10%。</blockquote></p><p> SaaS solutions provider&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVCM\">EverCommerce Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $325 million at a $3.4 billion market cap. EverCommerce is a leading provider of integrated, vertically-tailored SaaS solutions for service-based SMBs. The company serves over 500,000 customers across three core verticals: Home Services, Health Services, and Fitness &amp; Wellness Services.</p><p><blockquote>SaaS解决方案提供商<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVCM\">EverCommerce公司。</a></b>计划以34亿美元的市值筹集3.25亿美元。EverCommerce是为基于服务的中小型企业提供集成、垂直定制的SaaS解决方案的领先提供商。该公司在三个核心垂直领域为超过500,000名客户提供服务：家庭服务、健康服务以及健身和健康服务。</blockquote></p><p> Software provider&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTA\">Intapp, Inc.</a> </b>plans to raise $278 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Intapp provides industry-specific, cloud-based software solutions for the professional and financial services industry globally. The company had over 1,600 clients as of March 31, 2021, and it currently has more than 20 clients with contracts greater than $1 million of ARR.</p><p><blockquote>软件提供商<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTA\">因塔普公司。</a></b>计划以 19 亿美元的市值筹集 2.78 亿美元。Intapp为全球专业和金融服务行业提供特定于行业的、基于云的软件解决方案。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日，该公司拥有 1,600 多家客户，目前有 20 多家客户的合同金额超过 100 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Online manufacturing marketplace&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XMTR\">Xometry, Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $275 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Xometry states that it is a leading AI-enabled marketplace for on-demand manufacturing. Its buyers include businesses ranging from self-funded start-ups to Fortune 100 companies. Since its inception, over 6.0 million parts have been manufactured through Xometry's platform.</p><p><blockquote>在线制造市场<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XMTR\">Xometry公司。</a></b>计划以 19 亿美元的市值筹集 2.75 亿美元。Xometry 表示，它是按需制造的领先人工智能市场。其买家包括从自筹资金的初创企业到财富100强公司的企业。自成立以来，已通过 Xometry 平台制造了超过 600 万个零件。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IAS\">Integral Ad Science Holding LLC</a> </b>plans to raise $240 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. The company’s technology provides metrics designed to verify that digital ads are served to a real person, viewable on-screen, and appear in a brand-safe and suitable environment in the correct geography. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Integral Ad Science served over 2,000 customers as of 3/31/21.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IAS\">综合广告科学控股有限责任公司</a></b>计划以 25 亿美元的市值筹集 2.4 亿美元。该公司的技术提供的指标旨在验证数字广告是否提供给真实的人，是否可以在屏幕上看到，是否出现在品牌安全和合适的环境中，出现在正确的地理位置。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日，Integral Ad Science 以息税前利润为基础，为 2,000 多名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Plus-sized women’s apparel brand&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CURV\">Torrid Holdings</a> </b>plans to raise $156 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Torrid is the largest direct-to-consumer brand of women's plus-size apparel and intimates in North America by net sales. The profitable company markets directly to consumers via physical stores and its e-commerce platform, which represented a majority of sales in the 12 months ended 5/1/21.</p><p><blockquote>大码女装品牌<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CURV\">托里德控股</a></b>计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 1.56 亿美元。按净销售额计算，Torrid是北美最大的直接面向消费者的女式大码服装和内衣品牌。这家盈利的公司通过实体店及其电子商务平台直接向消费者进行营销，这占截至 2021 年 5 月 1 日 12 个月销售额的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Alzheimer’s biotech&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABOS\">Acumen Pharmaceuticals, Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $125 million at a $607 million market cap. The company's lead candidate, ACU193, is a humanized monoclonal antibody that selectively targets amyloid-beta oligomers. ACU193 entered a Phase 1 trial in patients with mild dementia or cognitive impairment due to AD in the 2Q21, with data expected by year end 2022.</p><p><blockquote>阿尔茨海默病生物技术<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABOS\">敏锐制药公司。</a></b>计划以 6.07 亿美元的市值筹集 1.25 亿美元。该公司的主要候选药物 ACU193 是一种选择性靶向淀粉样蛋白 β 寡聚体的人源化单克隆抗体。ACU193在2021年第二季度针对轻度痴呆或AD导致的认知障碍患者进行了1期试验，数据预计将于2022年底公布。</blockquote></p><p> Digital financial services provider&nbsp;<b>AMTD Digital</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">$(HKD)$</a>) plans to raise $120 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. AMTD Digital states that it is the \"fusion reactor\" at the core of the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem, operating a comprehensive digital solutions platform in Asia. Profitable with explosive growth, the company primarily generates revenue from fees and commissions in two lines of business.</p><p><blockquote>数字金融服务提供商<b>尚乘数码</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">$(港元)$</a>) 计划以 14 亿美元的市值筹集 1.2 亿美元。尚乘数字表示，它是尚乘蜘蛛网生态系统核心的“聚变反应堆”，在亚洲运营着一个全面的数字解决方案平台。该公司实现了爆炸式增长，盈利能力主要来自两项业务的费用和佣金。</blockquote></p><p> Drug formulation developer&nbsp;<b>Aerovate Therapeutics</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVTE\">$(AVTE)$</a>) plans to raise $100 million at a $325 million market cap. Aerovate's initial focus is on advancing AV-101, a dry powder inhaled formulation of imatinib for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The company has completed a Phase 1 study in healthy volunteers and expects to begin a Phase 2b/3 trial in PAH patients in the 2H21.</p><p><blockquote>药物制剂开发商<b>Aerovate疗法</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVTE\">$(AVTE)$</a>) 计划以 3.25 亿美元的市值筹集 1 亿美元。Aerovate 最初的重点是推进 AV-101，这是一种伊马替尼的干粉吸入制剂，用于治疗肺动脉高压 (PAH)。该公司已经在健康志愿者中完成了一项1期研究，并预计在2H21开始在PAH患者中进行2b/3期试验。</blockquote></p><p> Neuromodulation device provider<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVRX\">CVRx Inc</a> </b>plans to raise $100 million at a $333 million market cap. CVRx manufactures and markets its minimally invasive neuromodulation solutions on its proprietary BAROSTIM platform. The company's states that its BAROSTEM NEO product is the first and only commercially available neuromodulation device indicated to improve symptoms for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.</p><p><blockquote>神经调节装置提供者<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVRX\">CVRx公司</a></b>计划以 3.33 亿美元的市值筹集 1 亿美元。CVRx在其专有的BAROSTIM平台上制造和销售其微创神经调节解决方案。该公司表示，其 BAROSTEM NEO 产品是第一个也是唯一一个商业化的神经调节设备，可改善射血分数降低的心力衰竭患者的症状。</blockquote></p><p> Belgium-listed&nbsp;<b>Nyxoah</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYXH\">$(NYXH)$</a>) plans to raise $87 million at an $803 million market cap. Nyxoah's lead product is the Genio system, a CE-marked, minimally-invasive hypoglossal neurostimulation therapy for obstructive sleep apnea. The company began generating revenue from Genio in Europe in July 2020 and is currently conducting a pivotal trial designed to support marketing authorization in the US.</p><p><blockquote>比利时上市<b>尼克索阿</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYXH\">$(NYXH)$</a>）计划以 8.03 亿美元的市值筹集 8700 万美元。Nyxoah的主导产品是Genio系统，这是一种带有CE标志的微创舌下神经刺激疗法，用于治疗阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停。该公司于2020年7月开始从欧洲的Genio获得收入，目前正在进行一项旨在支持美国营销授权的关键试验。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f28d5f7f3b8e686c0bd006c2968b99\" tg-width=\"1131\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/508f1118f1d92b2b76391bc3610bd6c4\" tg-width=\"1131\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed04cd42fa30b460fcf67e07efa6ddc7\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/24/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 2.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 13.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.5% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.3%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年6月24日，文艺复兴IPO指数年初至今上涨2.7%，而标普500上涨13.6%。Renaissance Capital 的 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）追踪该指数，持有量最大的 ETF 包括 Snowflake (SNOW) 和 Palantir Technologies (PLTR)。Renaissance International IPO 指数今年迄今下跌 1.5%，而 ACWX 指数上涨 10.3%。Renaissance Capital 的国际 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）追踪该指数，持有的 ETF 包括 Smoore International 和 EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: DiDi makes its billion-dollar debut in a 17 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：滴滴在 IPO 第 17 周首次筹集数十亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: DiDi makes its billion-dollar debut in a 17 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：滴滴在 IPO 第 17 周首次筹集数十亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 17:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>17 IPOs are slated to raise $9.1 billion in this week, led by long-awaited Chinese ride-hailing giant<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">DiDi Global Inc.</a>.</b></p><p><blockquote>由期待已久的中国打车巨头牵头，本周将有 17 家 IPO 预计筹集 91 亿美元<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴全球公司。</a>.</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>DiDi</b>&nbsp;plans to raise $3.9 billion at a $67.5 billion market cap. DiDi is China’s dominant ride-hailing app, with 15 million drivers across 4,000 cities and towns. The unprofitable company saw revenue more than double in the 1Q21 as its business recovered post-pandemic.New and existing investors intend to purchase $1.3 billion of the IPO.</p><p><blockquote><b>滴滴</b>计划以 675 亿美元的市值筹集 39 亿美元。滴滴是中国占主导地位的打车应用，在 4000 个城镇拥有 1500 万司机。随着业务在大流行后复苏，这家未盈利的公司在2021年第一季度的收入增加了一倍多。新老投资者打算购买 13 亿美元的 IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Cybersecurity platform&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S\">SentinelOne, Inc</a></b> plans to raise $880 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. SentinelOne's Singularity Platform is an AI-powered extended detection and response platform that ingests, correlates and queries petabytes of structured and unstructured data to provide autonomous cybersecurity defense. Fast growing and unprofitable, the company had over 4,700 customers as of 4/30/21, up from 2,700 a year prior.</p><p><blockquote>网络安全平台<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S\">哨兵龙公司</a></b>计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.8亿美元。SentinelOne的Singularity平台是一个人工智能驱动的扩展检测和响应平台，可以接收、关联和查询PB级的结构化和非结构化数据，以提供自主网络安全防御。该公司快速增长且无利可图，截至 2021 年 4 月 30 日，该公司拥有超过 4,700 名客户，高于一年前的 2,700 名。</blockquote></p><p> Turkish e-commerce platform&nbsp;<b>D-MARKET Electronic Services &amp; Trading</b>(HEPS) plans to raise $681 million at a $3.9 billion market cap. Operating under the name Hepsiburada, the company connected 33 million members, 9 million Active Customers, and a base of approximately 45 thousand Active Merchants in 2020. The company is fast growing but EBITDA swung negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>土耳其电子商务平台<b>D-MARKET 电子服务与交易</b>(HEPS) 计划以 39 亿美元的市值筹集 6.81 亿美元。该公司以Hepsiburada的名义运营，2020年连接了3300万会员、900万活跃客户和约4.5万活跃商户。该公司发展迅速，但2021年第一季度的 EBITDA 为负值。</blockquote></p><p> Doughnut brand&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNUT\"><b>Krispy Kreme, Inc.</a> </b>plans to raise $600 million at a $3.8 billion market cap. Krispy Kreme is an omni-channel business operating through a network of doughnut shops, partnerships with retailers, and an e-Commerce and delivery business. The company has a long track record and strong brand awareness, though its growth strategy is unproven.</p><p><blockquote>甜甜圈品牌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNUT\"><b>克里斯皮奶油公司。</b></a>计划以38亿美元的市值筹集6亿美元。Krispy Kreme是一家全渠道企业，通过甜甜圈店网络、与零售商的合作伙伴关系以及电子商务和送货业务运营。该公司拥有悠久的业绩记录和强大的品牌知名度，尽管其增长战略尚未得到证实。</blockquote></p><p> Legal solutions provider&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LZ\">LegalZoom.com, Inc</a> </b>plans to raise $488 million at a $5.3 billion market cap. LegalZoom states that it is a leading online platform for legal and compliance solutions, claiming that 10% of new LLCs and 5% of new corporations in the US were formed via LegalZoom in 2020. Profitable on an EBITDA basis in the 1Q21, the company operates across all 50 states and over 3,000 counties in the US.</p><p><blockquote>法律解决方案提供商<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LZ\">LegalZoom.com公司</a></b>计划以53亿美元的市值筹集4.88亿美元。LegalZoom表示，它是法律和合规解决方案的领先在线平台，声称2020年美国10%的新有限责任公司和5%的新公司是通过LegalZoom成立的。该公司在2021年第一季度的EBITDA基础上盈利，业务遍及美国所有50个州和3,000多个县。</blockquote></p><p> Identity verification platform&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YOU\">Clear Secure, Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $376 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Clear Secure's secure identity platform uses to automate the identity verification process, with main offerings including CLEAR Plus, a consumer aviation subscription service, and two mobile apps. As of 5/31/21, Clear Secure's network included 38 airports, 26 sports and entertainment partners, and 67 Health Pass-enabled partners.</p><p><blockquote>身份验证平台<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YOU\">清晰安全公司。</a></b>计划以 41 亿美元的市值筹集 3.76 亿美元。Clear Secure的安全身份平台用于自动化身份验证过程，主要产品包括消费者航空订阅服务Clear Plus和两个移动应用程序。截至2021年5月31日，Clear Secure的网络包括38个机场、26个体育和娱乐合作伙伴以及67个支持健康通行证的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese grocery delivery platform&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong (Cayman) Limited</a> </b>plans to raise $343 million at a $6.0 billion market cap. With fresh groceries as its core product categories, Dingdong states that it is the fastest growing on-demand e-commerce company in China. Unprofitable with explosive growth, the company had a 10% share of the on-demand e-commerce market by GMV in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中国杂货配送平台<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚（开曼）有限公司</a></b>计划以 60 亿美元的市值筹集 3.43 亿美元。以生鲜杂货为核心产品类别，叮咚自称是中国发展最快的按需电商公司。该公司未盈利但呈爆炸式增长，2020年按GMV计算，该公司在按需电子商务市场的份额为10%。</blockquote></p><p> SaaS solutions provider&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVCM\">EverCommerce Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $325 million at a $3.4 billion market cap. EverCommerce is a leading provider of integrated, vertically-tailored SaaS solutions for service-based SMBs. The company serves over 500,000 customers across three core verticals: Home Services, Health Services, and Fitness &amp; Wellness Services.</p><p><blockquote>SaaS解决方案提供商<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVCM\">EverCommerce公司。</a></b>计划以34亿美元的市值筹集3.25亿美元。EverCommerce是为基于服务的中小型企业提供集成、垂直定制的SaaS解决方案的领先提供商。该公司在三个核心垂直领域为超过500,000名客户提供服务：家庭服务、健康服务以及健身和健康服务。</blockquote></p><p> Software provider&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTA\">Intapp, Inc.</a> </b>plans to raise $278 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Intapp provides industry-specific, cloud-based software solutions for the professional and financial services industry globally. The company had over 1,600 clients as of March 31, 2021, and it currently has more than 20 clients with contracts greater than $1 million of ARR.</p><p><blockquote>软件提供商<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTA\">因塔普公司。</a></b>计划以 19 亿美元的市值筹集 2.78 亿美元。Intapp为全球专业和金融服务行业提供特定于行业的、基于云的软件解决方案。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日，该公司拥有 1,600 多家客户，目前有 20 多家客户的合同金额超过 100 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Online manufacturing marketplace&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XMTR\">Xometry, Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $275 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Xometry states that it is a leading AI-enabled marketplace for on-demand manufacturing. Its buyers include businesses ranging from self-funded start-ups to Fortune 100 companies. Since its inception, over 6.0 million parts have been manufactured through Xometry's platform.</p><p><blockquote>在线制造市场<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XMTR\">Xometry公司。</a></b>计划以 19 亿美元的市值筹集 2.75 亿美元。Xometry 表示，它是按需制造的领先人工智能市场。其买家包括从自筹资金的初创企业到财富100强公司的企业。自成立以来，已通过 Xometry 平台制造了超过 600 万个零件。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IAS\">Integral Ad Science Holding LLC</a> </b>plans to raise $240 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. The company’s technology provides metrics designed to verify that digital ads are served to a real person, viewable on-screen, and appear in a brand-safe and suitable environment in the correct geography. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Integral Ad Science served over 2,000 customers as of 3/31/21.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IAS\">综合广告科学控股有限责任公司</a></b>计划以 25 亿美元的市值筹集 2.4 亿美元。该公司的技术提供的指标旨在验证数字广告是否提供给真实的人，是否可以在屏幕上看到，是否出现在品牌安全和合适的环境中，出现在正确的地理位置。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日，Integral Ad Science 以息税前利润为基础，为 2,000 多名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Plus-sized women’s apparel brand&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CURV\">Torrid Holdings</a> </b>plans to raise $156 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Torrid is the largest direct-to-consumer brand of women's plus-size apparel and intimates in North America by net sales. The profitable company markets directly to consumers via physical stores and its e-commerce platform, which represented a majority of sales in the 12 months ended 5/1/21.</p><p><blockquote>大码女装品牌<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CURV\">托里德控股</a></b>计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 1.56 亿美元。按净销售额计算，Torrid是北美最大的直接面向消费者的女式大码服装和内衣品牌。这家盈利的公司通过实体店及其电子商务平台直接向消费者进行营销，这占截至 2021 年 5 月 1 日 12 个月销售额的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Alzheimer’s biotech&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABOS\">Acumen Pharmaceuticals, Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $125 million at a $607 million market cap. The company's lead candidate, ACU193, is a humanized monoclonal antibody that selectively targets amyloid-beta oligomers. ACU193 entered a Phase 1 trial in patients with mild dementia or cognitive impairment due to AD in the 2Q21, with data expected by year end 2022.</p><p><blockquote>阿尔茨海默病生物技术<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABOS\">敏锐制药公司。</a></b>计划以 6.07 亿美元的市值筹集 1.25 亿美元。该公司的主要候选药物 ACU193 是一种选择性靶向淀粉样蛋白 β 寡聚体的人源化单克隆抗体。ACU193在2021年第二季度针对轻度痴呆或AD导致的认知障碍患者进行了1期试验，数据预计将于2022年底公布。</blockquote></p><p> Digital financial services provider&nbsp;<b>AMTD Digital</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">$(HKD)$</a>) plans to raise $120 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. AMTD Digital states that it is the \"fusion reactor\" at the core of the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem, operating a comprehensive digital solutions platform in Asia. Profitable with explosive growth, the company primarily generates revenue from fees and commissions in two lines of business.</p><p><blockquote>数字金融服务提供商<b>尚乘数码</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">$(港元)$</a>) 计划以 14 亿美元的市值筹集 1.2 亿美元。尚乘数字表示，它是尚乘蜘蛛网生态系统核心的“聚变反应堆”，在亚洲运营着一个全面的数字解决方案平台。该公司实现了爆炸式增长，盈利能力主要来自两项业务的费用和佣金。</blockquote></p><p> Drug formulation developer&nbsp;<b>Aerovate Therapeutics</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVTE\">$(AVTE)$</a>) plans to raise $100 million at a $325 million market cap. Aerovate's initial focus is on advancing AV-101, a dry powder inhaled formulation of imatinib for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The company has completed a Phase 1 study in healthy volunteers and expects to begin a Phase 2b/3 trial in PAH patients in the 2H21.</p><p><blockquote>药物制剂开发商<b>Aerovate疗法</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVTE\">$(AVTE)$</a>) 计划以 3.25 亿美元的市值筹集 1 亿美元。Aerovate 最初的重点是推进 AV-101，这是一种伊马替尼的干粉吸入制剂，用于治疗肺动脉高压 (PAH)。该公司已经在健康志愿者中完成了一项1期研究，并预计在2H21开始在PAH患者中进行2b/3期试验。</blockquote></p><p> Neuromodulation device provider<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVRX\">CVRx Inc</a> </b>plans to raise $100 million at a $333 million market cap. CVRx manufactures and markets its minimally invasive neuromodulation solutions on its proprietary BAROSTIM platform. The company's states that its BAROSTEM NEO product is the first and only commercially available neuromodulation device indicated to improve symptoms for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.</p><p><blockquote>神经调节装置提供者<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVRX\">CVRx公司</a></b>计划以 3.33 亿美元的市值筹集 1 亿美元。CVRx在其专有的BAROSTIM平台上制造和销售其微创神经调节解决方案。该公司表示，其 BAROSTEM NEO 产品是第一个也是唯一一个商业化的神经调节设备，可改善射血分数降低的心力衰竭患者的症状。</blockquote></p><p> Belgium-listed&nbsp;<b>Nyxoah</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYXH\">$(NYXH)$</a>) plans to raise $87 million at an $803 million market cap. Nyxoah's lead product is the Genio system, a CE-marked, minimally-invasive hypoglossal neurostimulation therapy for obstructive sleep apnea. The company began generating revenue from Genio in Europe in July 2020 and is currently conducting a pivotal trial designed to support marketing authorization in the US.</p><p><blockquote>比利时上市<b>尼克索阿</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYXH\">$(NYXH)$</a>）计划以 8.03 亿美元的市值筹集 8700 万美元。Nyxoah的主导产品是Genio系统，这是一种带有CE标志的微创舌下神经刺激疗法，用于治疗阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停。该公司于2020年7月开始从欧洲的Genio获得收入，目前正在进行一项旨在支持美国营销授权的关键试验。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f28d5f7f3b8e686c0bd006c2968b99\" tg-width=\"1131\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/508f1118f1d92b2b76391bc3610bd6c4\" tg-width=\"1131\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed04cd42fa30b460fcf67e07efa6ddc7\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/24/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 2.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 13.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.5% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.3%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年6月24日，文艺复兴IPO指数年初至今上涨2.7%，而标普500上涨13.6%。Renaissance Capital 的 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）追踪该指数，持有量最大的 ETF 包括 Snowflake (SNOW) 和 Palantir Technologies (PLTR)。Renaissance International IPO 指数今年迄今下跌 1.5%，而 ACWX 指数上涨 10.3%。Renaissance Capital 的国际 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）追踪该指数，持有的 ETF 包括 Smoore International 和 EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/83318/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-DiDi-makes-its-billion-dollar-debut-in-a-17-IPO-week\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"YOU":"Clear Secure, Inc.","DNUT":"Krispy Kreme, Inc.","HEPS":"D-MARKET Electronic Services & Trading","DDL":"叮咚买菜","CVRX":"CVRx, Inc.","XMTR":"Xometry, Inc.","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","ABOS":"Acumen Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","INTA":"Intapp, Inc.","EVCM":"EverCommerce Inc.","CURV":"Torrid Holdings","LZ":"LegalZoom.com, Inc","S":"SentinelOne, Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/83318/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-DiDi-makes-its-billion-dollar-debut-in-a-17-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150095060","content_text":"17 IPOs are slated to raise $9.1 billion in this week, led by long-awaited Chinese ride-hailing giant DiDi Global Inc..\nDiDi plans to raise $3.9 billion at a $67.5 billion market cap. DiDi is China’s dominant ride-hailing app, with 15 million drivers across 4,000 cities and towns. The unprofitable company saw revenue more than double in the 1Q21 as its business recovered post-pandemic.New and existing investors intend to purchase $1.3 billion of the IPO.\nCybersecurity platform SentinelOne, Inc plans to raise $880 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. SentinelOne's Singularity Platform is an AI-powered extended detection and response platform that ingests, correlates and queries petabytes of structured and unstructured data to provide autonomous cybersecurity defense. Fast growing and unprofitable, the company had over 4,700 customers as of 4/30/21, up from 2,700 a year prior.\nTurkish e-commerce platform D-MARKET Electronic Services & Trading(HEPS) plans to raise $681 million at a $3.9 billion market cap. Operating under the name Hepsiburada, the company connected 33 million members, 9 million Active Customers, and a base of approximately 45 thousand Active Merchants in 2020. The company is fast growing but EBITDA swung negative in the 1Q21.\nDoughnut brand Krispy Kreme, Inc. plans to raise $600 million at a $3.8 billion market cap. Krispy Kreme is an omni-channel business operating through a network of doughnut shops, partnerships with retailers, and an e-Commerce and delivery business. The company has a long track record and strong brand awareness, though its growth strategy is unproven.\nLegal solutions provider LegalZoom.com, Inc plans to raise $488 million at a $5.3 billion market cap. LegalZoom states that it is a leading online platform for legal and compliance solutions, claiming that 10% of new LLCs and 5% of new corporations in the US were formed via LegalZoom in 2020. Profitable on an EBITDA basis in the 1Q21, the company operates across all 50 states and over 3,000 counties in the US.\nIdentity verification platform Clear Secure, Inc. plans to raise $376 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Clear Secure's secure identity platform uses to automate the identity verification process, with main offerings including CLEAR Plus, a consumer aviation subscription service, and two mobile apps. As of 5/31/21, Clear Secure's network included 38 airports, 26 sports and entertainment partners, and 67 Health Pass-enabled partners.\nChinese grocery delivery platform Dingdong (Cayman) Limited plans to raise $343 million at a $6.0 billion market cap. With fresh groceries as its core product categories, Dingdong states that it is the fastest growing on-demand e-commerce company in China. Unprofitable with explosive growth, the company had a 10% share of the on-demand e-commerce market by GMV in 2020.\nSaaS solutions provider EverCommerce Inc. plans to raise $325 million at a $3.4 billion market cap. EverCommerce is a leading provider of integrated, vertically-tailored SaaS solutions for service-based SMBs. The company serves over 500,000 customers across three core verticals: Home Services, Health Services, and Fitness & Wellness Services.\nSoftware provider Intapp, Inc. plans to raise $278 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Intapp provides industry-specific, cloud-based software solutions for the professional and financial services industry globally. The company had over 1,600 clients as of March 31, 2021, and it currently has more than 20 clients with contracts greater than $1 million of ARR.\nOnline manufacturing marketplace Xometry, Inc. plans to raise $275 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Xometry states that it is a leading AI-enabled marketplace for on-demand manufacturing. Its buyers include businesses ranging from self-funded start-ups to Fortune 100 companies. Since its inception, over 6.0 million parts have been manufactured through Xometry's platform.\nIntegral Ad Science Holding LLC plans to raise $240 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. The company’s technology provides metrics designed to verify that digital ads are served to a real person, viewable on-screen, and appear in a brand-safe and suitable environment in the correct geography. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Integral Ad Science served over 2,000 customers as of 3/31/21.\nPlus-sized women’s apparel brand Torrid Holdings plans to raise $156 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Torrid is the largest direct-to-consumer brand of women's plus-size apparel and intimates in North America by net sales. The profitable company markets directly to consumers via physical stores and its e-commerce platform, which represented a majority of sales in the 12 months ended 5/1/21.\nAlzheimer’s biotech Acumen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. plans to raise $125 million at a $607 million market cap. The company's lead candidate, ACU193, is a humanized monoclonal antibody that selectively targets amyloid-beta oligomers. ACU193 entered a Phase 1 trial in patients with mild dementia or cognitive impairment due to AD in the 2Q21, with data expected by year end 2022.\nDigital financial services provider AMTD Digital($(HKD)$) plans to raise $120 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. AMTD Digital states that it is the \"fusion reactor\" at the core of the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem, operating a comprehensive digital solutions platform in Asia. Profitable with explosive growth, the company primarily generates revenue from fees and commissions in two lines of business.\nDrug formulation developer Aerovate Therapeutics($(AVTE)$) plans to raise $100 million at a $325 million market cap. Aerovate's initial focus is on advancing AV-101, a dry powder inhaled formulation of imatinib for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The company has completed a Phase 1 study in healthy volunteers and expects to begin a Phase 2b/3 trial in PAH patients in the 2H21.\nNeuromodulation device provider CVRx Inc plans to raise $100 million at a $333 million market cap. CVRx manufactures and markets its minimally invasive neuromodulation solutions on its proprietary BAROSTIM platform. The company's states that its BAROSTEM NEO product is the first and only commercially available neuromodulation device indicated to improve symptoms for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.\nBelgium-listed Nyxoah($(NYXH)$) plans to raise $87 million at an $803 million market cap. Nyxoah's lead product is the Genio system, a CE-marked, minimally-invasive hypoglossal neurostimulation therapy for obstructive sleep apnea. The company began generating revenue from Genio in Europe in July 2020 and is currently conducting a pivotal trial designed to support marketing authorization in the US.\n\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/24/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 2.7% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 13.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.5% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.3%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IAS":0.9,"S":0.9,"YOU":0.9,"EVCM":0.9,"CVRX":0.9,"DNUT":0.9,"HKIB":0.9,"XMTR":0.9,"ABOS":0.9,"INTA":0.9,"CURV":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"HEPS":0.9,"DDL":0.9,"LZ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124428318,"gmtCreate":1624782885634,"gmtModify":1631888254896,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy!","listText":"Buy!","text":"Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124428318","repostId":"2146079086","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124421407,"gmtCreate":1624782866909,"gmtModify":1631888254905,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ouch","listText":"Ouch","text":"Ouch","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124421407","repostId":"2146500392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124421622,"gmtCreate":1624782845366,"gmtModify":1631888254929,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124421622","repostId":"1162379867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124421980,"gmtCreate":1624782825940,"gmtModify":1631890272667,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Netflix.. everyone love this","listText":"Netflix.. everyone love this","text":"Netflix.. everyone love this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124421980","repostId":"2146026425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124423200,"gmtCreate":1624782758200,"gmtModify":1631890272679,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124423200","repostId":"2146070550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124423635,"gmtCreate":1624782746127,"gmtModify":1631890272675,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy if go lower&nbsp;","listText":"Buy if go lower&nbsp;","text":"Buy if go lower","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124423635","repostId":"1117734317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117734317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624759414,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117734317?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117734317","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong re","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square 似乎是一家成长型公司，也是一项良好的投资，具有强劲的收入增长和庞大的现金应用程序用户群。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将营收转化为利润。</li><li>这导致 Square 扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用故事似乎是一个萌芽的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和日益增长的比特币阻力，Square 可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在 Robinhood 的 100 强排名中排名第 57 位。这导致去年价格上涨了 135%，使 SQ 的市值超过 1000 亿美元，与中型公司的波动性相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过 Cash App、比特币 (BTC-USD)、PPP 贷款逐步增加收入并扩大产品组合，最近还通过 Square Financial Services 凭借银行牌照深耕商业贷款业务。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对严重依赖比特币收入的未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正逐渐脱离公司及其核心业务的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ 还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值，并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎正在呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还推出了比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度股东信 - 现金应用程序流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）颁发的银行许可证，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去 3 年中上涨了 330% 以上，并且自 2020 年以来一直追赶收入预期，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储看似无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与每股收益预测和 2021 年收入预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦政府对个人的转移支付消散，因此不断增加的收入预期开始对市场意味着更少，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 数据（年初至今平方价）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ 相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约 12% 的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与支付处理行业今年迄今为止 &gt;500 亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在远期收益和收入的基础上与这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021 年和 2022 年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021 年收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ 的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其当前价值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你从等式中删除比特币收入，你就会得到更夸张的前瞻性 PS 估计，而收入增长要低得多，而收入增长代表了 SQ 的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于这个等式，我从 2021 年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期（该预期显示 2021 年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有或没有连续增长）来判断，将该数字乘以 4 倍，年终收入估计为 61.4070 亿美元。前几年，我已经将比特币从收入中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 收入增长（2018 年至 2021 年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 与行业比较（收入估计不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了一幅非常不同的公司图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于同样具有高市盈率的竞争对手，但突然之间，盈利估值看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平 3 倍，高于中位数 4.5 倍。尤其是当美国运通公司（AXP）、万事达卡公司（MA）、PayPal控股公司（PYPL）和维萨卡公司（V）等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长估计，波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，除了交易量之外，重要的是”。不过，我举一个 2018 年比特币抛售的例子，其中比特币下跌了 70%，交易量也从高点下降了约 75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管加强而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司基本上是根据比特币支撑的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下降可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（平方价格相关性 - 收入、每股收益和 EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ 与行业比较隐含和已实现波动性以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的分析， 作者认为 SQ 2025 年的增长基本上是在我不得不同意的价值趋势中定价的。SQ 对收入预测的依赖（比特币大幅放大了收入预测）给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性水平、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论之前，有几个表面之下的宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小型企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 10Q 第 39 页 - 分部毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自总付款额&lt;500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square在很大程度上受到小商业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究商业形成统计数据，有一幅美好的画面，2021年5月超过500,000份商业申请为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们更深入地挖掘并查看对老牌小企业乐观情绪进行排名的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，并开始看起来像2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 乐观，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们审视小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年的情况类似。这可能表明 SQ 毛利率的面包和黄油可能不会以之前 2017 年至 2020 年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出其负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且有些短暂。或者，它可能类似于 2008 年至 2016 年的缓慢 3 月，我们根本不知道，除了这是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响 SQ 的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望原因，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ 显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们拥有庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、自 2014 年以来的经验以及于 2021 年 5 月 31 日停止的 PPP 计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于新冠疫情的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对 SQ 来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们也将宣布解除对富国银行公司（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（全球货币快报 - 2021 年 5 月 25 日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在 2020 年初取消了这些限制，以通过 PPP 计划帮助小企业，而缩减规模有着扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果这种情况发生，我怀疑 WFC 将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并且由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史，将成为 SQ 的强劲竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和根斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间，比特币一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的升值。此外，一些小银行对这种媒介感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用他们的服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量，以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在制定立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中国和印度。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自 2021 年 5 月 ATHs 以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，约为 65,000 美元，此后回撤了 -46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为大部分比特币采矿是在中国进行的（年初至今约70%），采矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些价格因中国采矿活动减少而下降，价格肯定会随之下跌，从而影响 SQ 的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币年初至今电力消耗指数）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国证券交易委员会已经出面表示比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的法规方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，总体而言，这对比特币和 SQ 来说不是好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采纳，对其价格产生负面影响，导致 2018 年产量下降以及采矿活动重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济 - 零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏大部分并非由“被压抑的需求”推动，而是主要通过 2020 年全年和 2021 年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收据（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入与实际收入减去转移支付与个人储蓄与零售贸易销售额）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售销售的大部分飙升（紫色）主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票支票支撑了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间，储蓄环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在研究U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，经济学家认为U6失业率是最能说明问题的，因为它包括失业、就业不足和沮丧的求职者。总的来说，这对未来的可自由支配消费模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6 失业率 vs U5 失业率 vs 官方数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我之前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对非必需消费品支出的历史敞口。当考虑以下数字时：零售；专业服务、美容和个人护理、家居和维修、休闲和娱乐以及休闲使用，总敞口约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best - 卖家行业 GPV，2019 年 12 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退，对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值就是由此得出的（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从他们2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们持有的股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，他们最初在这一时期和第四季度向比特币投资了 2 亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币 25,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也在努力寻找牵引力，特别是当你检查一些其他趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 全球 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付进行比较时，很明显两者之间在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的许多猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，滞后几天到几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 美国 12 个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格 1 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月大约20,000美元的比特币价格。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。也可以推测，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响经营利润、净利润和股东收益以及未来预测。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑本季度的交易，例如在 ATHs 或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款和消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和交易量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对 SQ 的收入预测以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App 似乎正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过 3600 万，同比增长 50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，现金应用程序的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ 在其季度备案说明中对此进行了详细阐述：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App 收入受益于活跃 Cash App 客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业救济，导致消费者支出和流入我们的现金应用生态系统的增加。Cash App 的收入增长可能不会在未来几个季度保持在相同的水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度第 10 季度文件 - 第 49 页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由现金应用生态系统的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送刺激付款，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词 - 美国 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款的结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，减少日内交易，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响 SQ 收入预期、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位寻求阿尔法贡献者价值趋势在这里详细阐述了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（2020 年第四季度股东信 - 第 4 页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将其全部转入他们的银行账户，他们就是“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许“活跃”客户的更好量化指标是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查 SQ 的技术面，很明显该股目前在 200 美元至 280 美元之间波动，多次尝试突破 250 美元，两次尝试在 300 美元附近失败，显示出一些势头正在消退的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 FINVIZ（SQ 图）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流量时，由于暗池处于低位，当前的涨势有可能继续，这可能会持续到 8 月份的收益。虽然我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严肃的好消息，比特币重返ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ Dark Pools 与 Implied Vol 2 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中我们也可以看到，不少基金都减少了敞口，平仓，新进持仓较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是对于一只市值达 1000 亿美元的股票来说，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>不过，需要谨慎，因为 SQ 与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被解除时，伽马可能会变为正，这可能会导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，关于 ARK ETF，过去 6 个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些 ETF 中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，凯西已经大大减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能会选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有的 SQ 股票 - 所有 ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕掉你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行一定程度的投资。因此，如果你要自担风险将其交易为空头，建议谨慎行事，你应该始终选择你的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SQ ATR 的波动性，SQ 可能会在今年年底跌至约 100 美元的低点，有 40% 的时间是有利的。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我2021年底的价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们收入的一部分，无论2021年初的比特币销量有多高，年底的销量有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试 200 美元，可能跌至 160 美元。虽然用SQ确定估值非常困难，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，也来自基金和市场在未来采用资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场开始再次认为比特币无关紧要，我预计 SQ 将慢慢抛售至 150 美元至 160 美元之间（-37% 下行空间），并且不太可能反弹至 300 美元以上（25% 上行空间）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场价值比特币会有任何现实的基础吗？有没有比特币，它增长了多少？有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言，市场在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，更有可能的是，假设 SQ 将因此而在 2021 年下半年遭受损失，并对收入预期造成重大打击，这并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加，负面新闻消失，因为这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望促进小企业增长，增加小企业乐观情绪和扩张，这对SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性业务非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长是有价格的，SQ 持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ 是一家高增长公司，从长远来看有一些潜在的积极因素；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入估计主要来自比特币交易，而不是底线盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从数量的角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估了，因为未来的增长，至少在2021年，可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其现金应用程序采用统计数据可能不会继续保持同样的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着几个潜在的宏观经济障碍，涉及小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square 似乎是一家成长型公司，也是一项良好的投资，具有强劲的收入增长和庞大的现金应用程序用户群。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将营收转化为利润。</li><li>这导致 Square 扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用故事似乎是一个萌芽的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和日益增长的比特币阻力，Square 可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在 Robinhood 的 100 强排名中排名第 57 位。这导致去年价格上涨了 135%，使 SQ 的市值超过 1000 亿美元，与中型公司的波动性相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过 Cash App、比特币 (BTC-USD)、PPP 贷款逐步增加收入并扩大产品组合，最近还通过 Square Financial Services 凭借银行牌照深耕商业贷款业务。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对严重依赖比特币收入的未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正逐渐脱离公司及其核心业务的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ 还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值，并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎正在呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还推出了比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度股东信 - 现金应用程序流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）颁发的银行许可证，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去 3 年中上涨了 330% 以上，并且自 2020 年以来一直追赶收入预期，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储看似无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与每股收益预测和 2021 年收入预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦政府对个人的转移支付消散，因此不断增加的收入预期开始对市场意味着更少，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 数据（年初至今平方价）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ 相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约 12% 的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与支付处理行业今年迄今为止 &gt;500 亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在远期收益和收入的基础上与这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021 年和 2022 年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021 年收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ 的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其当前价值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你从等式中删除比特币收入，你就会得到更夸张的前瞻性 PS 估计，而收入增长要低得多，而收入增长代表了 SQ 的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于这个等式，我从 2021 年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期（该预期显示 2021 年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有或没有连续增长）来判断，将该数字乘以 4 倍，年终收入估计为 61.4070 亿美元。前几年，我已经将比特币从收入中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 收入增长（2018 年至 2021 年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 与行业比较（收入估计不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了一幅非常不同的公司图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于同样具有高市盈率的竞争对手，但突然之间，盈利估值看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平 3 倍，高于中位数 4.5 倍。尤其是当美国运通公司（AXP）、万事达卡公司（MA）、PayPal控股公司（PYPL）和维萨卡公司（V）等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长估计，波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，除了交易量之外，重要的是”。不过，我举一个 2018 年比特币抛售的例子，其中比特币下跌了 70%，交易量也从高点下降了约 75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管加强而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司基本上是根据比特币支撑的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下降可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（平方价格相关性 - 收入、每股收益和 EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ 与行业比较隐含和已实现波动性以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的分析， 作者认为 SQ 2025 年的增长基本上是在我不得不同意的价值趋势中定价的。SQ 对收入预测的依赖（比特币大幅放大了收入预测）给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性水平、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论之前，有几个表面之下的宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小型企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 10Q 第 39 页 - 分部毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自总付款额&lt;500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square在很大程度上受到小商业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究商业形成统计数据，有一幅美好的画面，2021年5月超过500,000份商业申请为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们更深入地挖掘并查看对老牌小企业乐观情绪进行排名的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，并开始看起来像2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 乐观，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们审视小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年的情况类似。这可能表明 SQ 毛利率的面包和黄油可能不会以之前 2017 年至 2020 年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出其负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且有些短暂。或者，它可能类似于 2008 年至 2016 年的缓慢 3 月，我们根本不知道，除了这是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响 SQ 的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望原因，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ 显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们拥有庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、自 2014 年以来的经验以及于 2021 年 5 月 31 日停止的 PPP 计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于新冠疫情的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对 SQ 来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们也将宣布解除对富国银行公司（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（全球货币快报 - 2021 年 5 月 25 日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在 2020 年初取消了这些限制，以通过 PPP 计划帮助小企业，而缩减规模有着扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果这种情况发生，我怀疑 WFC 将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并且由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史，将成为 SQ 的强劲竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和根斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间，比特币一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的升值。此外，一些小银行对这种媒介感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用他们的服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量，以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在制定立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中国和印度。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自 2021 年 5 月 ATHs 以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，约为 65,000 美元，此后回撤了 -46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为大部分比特币采矿是在中国进行的（年初至今约70%），采矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些价格因中国采矿活动减少而下降，价格肯定会随之下跌，从而影响 SQ 的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币年初至今电力消耗指数）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国证券交易委员会已经出面表示比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的法规方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，总体而言，这对比特币和 SQ 来说不是好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采纳，对其价格产生负面影响，导致 2018 年产量下降以及采矿活动重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济 - 零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏大部分并非由“被压抑的需求”推动，而是主要通过 2020 年全年和 2021 年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收据（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入与实际收入减去转移支付与个人储蓄与零售贸易销售额）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售销售的大部分飙升（紫色）主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票支票支撑了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间，储蓄环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在研究U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，经济学家认为U6失业率是最能说明问题的，因为它包括失业、就业不足和沮丧的求职者。总的来说，这对未来的可自由支配消费模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6 失业率 vs U5 失业率 vs 官方数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我之前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对非必需消费品支出的历史敞口。当考虑以下数字时：零售；专业服务、美容和个人护理、家居和维修、休闲和娱乐以及休闲使用，总敞口约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best - 卖家行业 GPV，2019 年 12 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退，对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值就是由此得出的（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从他们2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们持有的股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，他们最初在这一时期和第四季度向比特币投资了 2 亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币 25,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也在努力寻找牵引力，特别是当你检查一些其他趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 全球 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付进行比较时，很明显两者之间在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的许多猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，滞后几天到几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 美国 12 个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格 1 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月大约20,000美元的比特币价格。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。也可以推测，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响经营利润、净利润和股东收益以及未来预测。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑本季度的交易，例如在 ATHs 或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款和消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和交易量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对 SQ 的收入预测以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App 似乎正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过 3600 万，同比增长 50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，现金应用程序的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ 在其季度备案说明中对此进行了详细阐述：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App 收入受益于活跃 Cash App 客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业救济，导致消费者支出和流入我们的现金应用生态系统的增加。Cash App 的收入增长可能不会在未来几个季度保持在相同的水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度第 10 季度文件 - 第 49 页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由现金应用生态系统的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送刺激付款，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词 - 美国 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款的结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，减少日内交易，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响 SQ 收入预期、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位寻求阿尔法贡献者价值趋势在这里详细阐述了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（2020 年第四季度股东信 - 第 4 页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将其全部转入他们的银行账户，他们就是“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许“活跃”客户的更好量化指标是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查 SQ 的技术面，很明显该股目前在 200 美元至 280 美元之间波动，多次尝试突破 250 美元，两次尝试在 300 美元附近失败，显示出一些势头正在消退的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 FINVIZ（SQ 图）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流量时，由于暗池处于低位，当前的涨势有可能继续，这可能会持续到 8 月份的收益。虽然我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严肃的好消息，比特币重返ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ Dark Pools 与 Implied Vol 2 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中我们也可以看到，不少基金都减少了敞口，平仓，新进持仓较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是对于一只市值达 1000 亿美元的股票来说，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>不过，需要谨慎，因为 SQ 与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被解除时，伽马可能会变为正，这可能会导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，关于 ARK ETF，过去 6 个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些 ETF 中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，凯西已经大大减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能会选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有的 SQ 股票 - 所有 ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕掉你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行一定程度的投资。因此，如果你要自担风险将其交易为空头，建议谨慎行事，你应该始终选择你的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SQ ATR 的波动性，SQ 可能会在今年年底跌至约 100 美元的低点，有 40% 的时间是有利的。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我2021年底的价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们收入的一部分，无论2021年初的比特币销量有多高，年底的销量有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试 200 美元，可能跌至 160 美元。虽然用SQ确定估值非常困难，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，也来自基金和市场在未来采用资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场开始再次认为比特币无关紧要，我预计 SQ 将慢慢抛售至 150 美元至 160 美元之间（-37% 下行空间），并且不太可能反弹至 300 美元以上（25% 上行空间）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场价值比特币会有任何现实的基础吗？有没有比特币，它增长了多少？有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言，市场在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，更有可能的是，假设 SQ 将因此而在 2021 年下半年遭受损失，并对收入预期造成重大打击，这并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加，负面新闻消失，因为这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望促进小企业增长，增加小企业乐观情绪和扩张，这对SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性业务非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长是有价格的，SQ 持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ 是一家高增长公司，从长远来看有一些潜在的积极因素；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入估计主要来自比特币交易，而不是底线盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从数量的角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估了，因为未来的增长，至少在2021年，可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其现金应用程序采用统计数据可能不会继续保持同样的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着几个潜在的宏观经济障碍，涉及小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117734317","content_text":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.\nIn reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.\nThis has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.\nAnd whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.\nGiven the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.\n\nAndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nSquare Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the most popular stocks among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.\nOn the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a banking license via Square Financial Services.\nHowever, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.\nSource: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)\nIn addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.\nOverview\nSQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)\nAs of March 2020, the company has received a Banking License from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.\nGiven all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.\nThis was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)\nHowever, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)\nQuantitative\nYear to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector >$50 bln Year to Date)\nIt is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.\nSource: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)\nWhilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.\nHowever, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.\nFor this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.\nSource: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)\nSource: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)\nAs we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.\nMany will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:\nSource: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)\nOn a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)\nThis becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.\nSource: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)\nGiven the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend in which the author suggests that SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.\nMacro\nWhilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.\nWhilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.\nSmall Business Environment\nSQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)\nThe majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with <$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)\nDelving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.\nSource: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)\nAgain, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)\nFurther, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)\nAdditionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)\nSmall Business Lending\nLooking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.\nCurrently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.\nSource: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)\nThis can be verified through the credit conditions index in the monthly NFIB report. Although, an American Banker survey is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.\nThis is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of capital restraints placed on Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).\nSource: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)\nThere is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had lifted these restraints to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.\nBitcoin, Legislation & Gensler\nBitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor banks have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the purchase of Bitcoin using their services.\nThe primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.\nConsequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China and India.\nThis has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.\nIt is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.\nSource: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)\nWhilst the SEC has come out and said that Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to 2000 and 2008.\nLooking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.\nGeneral Economy - The Worry for Retail\nSeparately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout 2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)\nAdditionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.\nThe consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is considered to be the most revealing amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.\nSource: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)\nFinally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.\nIn relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.\nSource: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)\nWhilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.\nFinancials\nBitcoin\nWhen examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).\nFrom their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.\nCurrently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)\nAdditionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.\nSource: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)\nThe spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)\nThis also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.\nSource: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)\nThus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.\nThis is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.\nAdditionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.\nCash App\nOn the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)\nHowever, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:\n\n Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from \n government relief programs most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)\n\nPart of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.\nThe two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:\n\nApril 12-18 2020\nJanuary 24-30 2021\n\nThese coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.\nSource: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)\nTherefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.\nFurther, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.\nIt is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:\n\n ... has at least\n one financial transactionusing any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)\n\nSo, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...\nPerhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.\nTechnicals\nExamining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.\nSource: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)\nWhen examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.\nSource: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)\nFrom the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.\nCaution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.\nSource: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)\nFurther, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been significant liquidity issues the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.\nSource: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)\nGiven the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.\nPrice Targets\nOn the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.\nSource: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)\nHowever, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.\nI do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.\nIf the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).\nRisks\nWith respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.\nThe company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?\nIf the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.\nFurther, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.\nAgain, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.\nSummary\nSQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.\nFrom a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.\nAdditionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124423107,"gmtCreate":1624782727209,"gmtModify":1631890272679,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh no~","listText":"Oh no~","text":"Oh no~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124423107","repostId":"1121141266","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121141266","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624760169,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121141266?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华 “召回 ”影响近 30 万辆汽车。要知道什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121141266","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.Tesla  apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”The notice from","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚些时候表示，由于辅助驾驶功能出现问题，特斯拉将不得不 “召回 ”近 30 万辆中国制造或进口汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。“据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：”对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。“特斯拉将继续严格按照国家要求提高安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报告称，特斯拉将能够远程为受影响的客户更新软件，因此他们不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦</i>这个问题是否已经导致了中国的碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约 30% 的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售最近一直不稳定，4 月份出现下降，随后 5 月份的数据更加有希望。自 2019 年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户对特斯拉的质量和服务提出了投诉，并在 4 月份的上海车展上举行了抗议活动。特斯拉在四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公共关系问题的一部分，可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在 2020 年上涨八倍后，今年已下跌 5%。也就是说，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季度末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周六上午没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华 “召回 ”影响近 30 万辆汽车。要知道什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华 “召回 ”影响近 30 万辆汽车。要知道什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚些时候表示，由于辅助驾驶功能出现问题，特斯拉将不得不 “召回 ”近 30 万辆中国制造或进口汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。“据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：”对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。“特斯拉将继续严格按照国家要求提高安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报告称，特斯拉将能够远程为受影响的客户更新软件，因此他们不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦</i>这个问题是否已经导致了中国的碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约 30% 的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售最近一直不稳定，4 月份出现下降，随后 5 月份的数据更加有希望。自 2019 年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户对特斯拉的质量和服务提出了投诉，并在 4 月份的上海车展上举行了抗议活动。特斯拉在四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公共关系问题的一部分，可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在 2020 年上涨八倍后，今年已下跌 5%。也就是说，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季度末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周六上午没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121141266","content_text":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.\nTesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”\nThe notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question fromBarron’son whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.\nChina is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.\nLately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.\nThe issues are part of a larger public relations problem that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.\nIt’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124423379,"gmtCreate":1624782707991,"gmtModify":1631890272684,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh no~","listText":"Oh no~","text":"Oh no~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124423379","repostId":"1121141266","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121141266","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624760169,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121141266?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华 “召回 ”影响近 30 万辆汽车。要知道什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121141266","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.Tesla  apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”The notice from","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚些时候表示，由于辅助驾驶功能出现问题，特斯拉将不得不 “召回 ”近 30 万辆中国制造或进口汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。“据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：”对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。“特斯拉将继续严格按照国家要求提高安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报告称，特斯拉将能够远程为受影响的客户更新软件，因此他们不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦</i>这个问题是否已经导致了中国的碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约 30% 的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售最近一直不稳定，4 月份出现下降，随后 5 月份的数据更加有希望。自 2019 年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户对特斯拉的质量和服务提出了投诉，并在 4 月份的上海车展上举行了抗议活动。特斯拉在四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公共关系问题的一部分，可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在 2020 年上涨八倍后，今年已下跌 5%。也就是说，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季度末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周六上午没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华 “召回 ”影响近 30 万辆汽车。要知道什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华 “召回 ”影响近 30 万辆汽车。要知道什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚些时候表示，由于辅助驾驶功能出现问题，特斯拉将不得不 “召回 ”近 30 万辆中国制造或进口汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。“据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：”对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。“特斯拉将继续严格按照国家要求提高安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报告称，特斯拉将能够远程为受影响的客户更新软件，因此他们不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦</i>这个问题是否已经导致了中国的碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约 30% 的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售最近一直不稳定，4 月份出现下降，随后 5 月份的数据更加有希望。自 2019 年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户对特斯拉的质量和服务提出了投诉，并在 4 月份的上海车展上举行了抗议活动。特斯拉在四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公共关系问题的一部分，可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在 2020 年上涨八倍后，今年已下跌 5%。也就是说，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季度末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周六上午没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121141266","content_text":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.\nTesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”\nThe notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question fromBarron’son whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.\nChina is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.\nLately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.\nThe issues are part of a larger public relations problem that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.\nIt’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121660661,"gmtCreate":1624462072853,"gmtModify":1631890272688,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Aisk","listText":"Aisk","text":"Aisk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121660661","repostId":"1180677663","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121687502,"gmtCreate":1624462055906,"gmtModify":1631890272686,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Let’s go!","listText":"Let’s go!","text":"Let’s go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121687502","repostId":"1127255730","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121687944,"gmtCreate":1624462040588,"gmtModify":1631890272689,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nah","listText":"Nah","text":"Nah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121687944","repostId":"1159107044","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":347595155,"gmtCreate":1618500080877,"gmtModify":1634292477126,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Someone please wake me up from my dream","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Someone please wake me up from my dream","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Someone please wake me up from my dream","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e9e96f9b15e080e6cf5a0dc39557a56","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347595155","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3554863204555822","authorId":"3554863204555822","name":"So_1929","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4401b9beb2dc0e2688d07a45379f992a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3554863204555822","idStr":"3554863204555822"},"content":"补仓做T，把成本搞下来","text":"补仓做T，把成本搞下来","html":"补仓做T，把成本搞下来"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388396229,"gmtCreate":1613018563661,"gmtModify":1703768434912,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Don’t panic","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Don’t panic","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Don’t panic","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06f9085230bee6fdf4727d2dbf3077d3","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388396229","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102630898,"gmtCreate":1620203579514,"gmtModify":1634207010603,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Sad wei, I stay at high floor quite some time d","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Sad wei, I stay at high floor quite some time d","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Sad wei, I stay at high floor quite some time d","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12d2285a3e71d52be363d955b54454af","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102630898","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":313085944,"gmtCreate":1611636999388,"gmtModify":1703751820540,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Will <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACB\">$Pacific Biosciences of California(PACB)$</a>grow as Cathie Wood predicted? Is Genomic sectorbloom in next 5-10years? Welcome leave your comment here.&nbsp;","listText":"Will <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACB\">$Pacific Biosciences of California(PACB)$</a>grow as Cathie Wood predicted? Is Genomic sectorbloom in next 5-10years? Welcome leave your comment here.&nbsp;","text":"Will $Pacific Biosciences of California(PACB)$grow as Cathie Wood predicted? Is Genomic sectorbloom in next 5-10years? Welcome leave your comment here.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51909881d8f76a067f19481f4e5c8107","width":"1125","height":"2713"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313085944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135998865,"gmtCreate":1622124846757,"gmtModify":1631892503994,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is coming back!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>","listText":"Is coming back!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>","text":"Is coming back!$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ba527e4c4b91c85da2d8bd9437c04c","width":"1125","height":"2973"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135998865","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131805005,"gmtCreate":1621842436507,"gmtModify":1631886531605,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Will i<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>climb back to above $20? Like if you think it will. 👍🏻","listText":"Will i<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>climb back to above $20? Like if you think it will. 👍🏻","text":"Will i$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$climb back to above $20? 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