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Chunfai92

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2021-07-27

Yes Tesla keep going. And pls help me like

Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote>

2021-09-23

Nice post and thanks for sharing

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2021-07-19

Noted thanks for the sharing. Pls help me like too[Smile]

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2021-09-14

Jump to the moon

Why GameStop and Other Meme Stocks Jumped Today<blockquote>为什么游戏驿站和其他模因股票今天上涨</blockquote>

2021-08-12

Thanks for sharing

A Three-Prong Crucible? Markets Eye Record Highs Amid Inflation, Fiscal, And Delta Uncertainty<blockquote>三叉坩埚？在通胀、财政和三角洲的不确定性中，市场关注历史新高</blockquote>

2021-07-28

Nice and thanks for sharing. Pls like

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2021-09-10

Nice to buy ?

RLX Technology fell 9% in early trading<blockquote>RLX科技早盘跌9%</blockquote>

2021-08-16

Thanks for sharing

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2021-08-07

Noted and thanks for sharing and pls like

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2021-08-05

Like pls ;)

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post and thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Nice post and thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Nice post and thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863567485","repostId":"2169667599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":869128893,"gmtCreate":1632268259112,"gmtModify":1632801669181,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for the sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for the sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for the sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869128893","repostId":"2169632761","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886648184,"gmtCreate":1631589209748,"gmtModify":1631889558450,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Jump to the moon&nbsp;","listText":"Jump to the moon&nbsp;","text":"Jump to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886648184","repostId":"1198740697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198740697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631589054,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198740697?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-14 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why GameStop and Other Meme Stocks Jumped Today<blockquote>为什么游戏驿站和其他模因股票今天上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198740697","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"What happened\nIt's hard to know what drives the moves in so-called meme stocks. But after some actua","content":"<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to know what drives the moves in so-called meme stocks. But after some actual good news for the business helped shares in&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>&nbsp;today, it may just be the others are moving in sympathy. Several other names, including original meme stock<b>GameStop</b>(NYSE:GME)are moving higher. As of 3:50 p.m. EDT, GameStop, apparel retailer&nbsp;<b>Express</b>(NYSE:EXPR), cannabis company&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL), and&nbsp;<b>SmileDirectClub</b>(NASDAQ:SDC)were moving as follows:</p><p><blockquote>很难知道是什么推动了所谓的模因股票的走势。但在一些实际的好消息帮助该公司股价上涨后<b>AMC院线控股</b>今天，可能只是其他人出于同情而行动。其他几个名字，包括原始模因股票<b>游戏驿站</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）正在走高。截至下午3:50美国东部时间，游戏驿站，服装零售商<b>表达</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：EXPR），大麻公司<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克：SNDL），以及<b>SmileDirectClub</b>（纳斯达克：SDC）的行动如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop was up 6.5%.</li>  <li>Express was up 8.5%.</li>  <li>Sundial Growers was up 2.8%.</li>  <li>SmileDirectClub was up 16.3%.</li> </ul> So what</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站上涨6.5%。</li><li>Express上涨8.5%。</li><li>Sundial Growers上涨2.8%。</li><li>SmileDirectClub上涨16.3%。</li></ul>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks sometimes seem to move just on the whims of social media forums. But after&nbsp;AMC got a potential shot in the arm from news in the movie industry&nbsp;today, some of the retail traders following these names may be focusing back on short interest to bet onpotential short squeezes. SmileDirectClub has over 32% of its float sold short, as of the end of August, according to data from MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票有时似乎只是根据社交媒体论坛的突发奇想而波动。但在AMC今天从电影业的新闻中获得了一剂强心针后，一些关注这些名字的散户交易者可能会重新关注空头兴趣，押注潜在的空头挤压。根据MarketWatch的数据，截至8月底，SmileDirectClub超过32%的流通股被卖空。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop still has almost 12.5% of its shares shorted, Express has 5.3%, and Sundial Growers has 26%. Many investors that are betting on these names focus on that metric, hoping that the&nbsp;short-sellers are forced to cover, driving shares higher.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站仍有近12.5%的股份被做空，Express有5.3%，Sundial Growers有26%。许多押注这些名字的投资者都关注这一指标，希望卖空者被迫回补，从而推动股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在怎么办</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting bit of recent news from these names came when GameStop reported its quarterly financial update last week. While sales grew by more than 25% compared to the prior-year quarter, GameStop reported another net loss. And investors didn't respond well when the new CEO didn't take questions on&nbsp;the conference call, which only lasted eight minutes.</p><p><blockquote>这些名字最近最有趣的消息来自游戏驿站上周报告其季度财务更新。虽然销售额与去年同期相比增长了25%以上，但游戏驿站报告再次出现净亏损。当新任首席执行官没有在电话会议上回答问题时，投资者的反应并不好，这只持续了八分钟。</blockquote></p><p> Another bit of news from GameStop came out the next day in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Investment management firm<b>BlackRock</b>(NYSE:BLK)reported on Sept. 9 that it held 6.6% of GameStop shares. That indicates the company has sold about 50% of its holdings since it last reported its holdings in January.</p><p><blockquote>第二天，游戏驿站在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中发布了另一条消息。投资管理公司<b>贝莱德</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BLK）9月9日报道称，其持有游戏驿站6.6%的股份。这表明自1月份上次报告持股以来，该公司已出售了约50%的持股。</blockquote></p><p> But the drop in GameStop shares has been recouped with today's move upward. Traders relying on social media may be betting on short squeezes and a retail movement to make money in these names. But serious investors should still focus on business fundamentals. That may be why BlackRock took profits last week.</p><p><blockquote>但游戏驿站股价的跌幅已被今天的上涨所弥补。依赖社交媒体的交易者可能会押注于轧空和散户运动，以这些名义赚钱。但认真的投资者仍然应该关注商业基本面。这可能就是贝莱德上周获利了结的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why GameStop and Other Meme Stocks Jumped Today<blockquote>为什么游戏驿站和其他模因股票今天上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy GameStop and Other Meme Stocks Jumped Today<blockquote>为什么游戏驿站和其他模因股票今天上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-14 11:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to know what drives the moves in so-called meme stocks. But after some actual good news for the business helped shares in&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>&nbsp;today, it may just be the others are moving in sympathy. Several other names, including original meme stock<b>GameStop</b>(NYSE:GME)are moving higher. As of 3:50 p.m. EDT, GameStop, apparel retailer&nbsp;<b>Express</b>(NYSE:EXPR), cannabis company&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL), and&nbsp;<b>SmileDirectClub</b>(NASDAQ:SDC)were moving as follows:</p><p><blockquote>很难知道是什么推动了所谓的模因股票的走势。但在一些实际的好消息帮助该公司股价上涨后<b>AMC院线控股</b>今天，可能只是其他人出于同情而行动。其他几个名字，包括原始模因股票<b>游戏驿站</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）正在走高。截至下午3:50美国东部时间，游戏驿站，服装零售商<b>表达</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：EXPR），大麻公司<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克：SNDL），以及<b>SmileDirectClub</b>（纳斯达克：SDC）的行动如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop was up 6.5%.</li>  <li>Express was up 8.5%.</li>  <li>Sundial Growers was up 2.8%.</li>  <li>SmileDirectClub was up 16.3%.</li> </ul> So what</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站上涨6.5%。</li><li>Express上涨8.5%。</li><li>Sundial Growers上涨2.8%。</li><li>SmileDirectClub上涨16.3%。</li></ul>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks sometimes seem to move just on the whims of social media forums. But after&nbsp;AMC got a potential shot in the arm from news in the movie industry&nbsp;today, some of the retail traders following these names may be focusing back on short interest to bet onpotential short squeezes. SmileDirectClub has over 32% of its float sold short, as of the end of August, according to data from MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票有时似乎只是根据社交媒体论坛的突发奇想而波动。但在AMC今天从电影业的新闻中获得了一剂强心针后，一些关注这些名字的散户交易者可能会重新关注空头兴趣，押注潜在的空头挤压。根据MarketWatch的数据，截至8月底，SmileDirectClub超过32%的流通股被卖空。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop still has almost 12.5% of its shares shorted, Express has 5.3%, and Sundial Growers has 26%. Many investors that are betting on these names focus on that metric, hoping that the&nbsp;short-sellers are forced to cover, driving shares higher.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站仍有近12.5%的股份被做空，Express有5.3%，Sundial Growers有26%。许多押注这些名字的投资者都关注这一指标，希望卖空者被迫回补，从而推动股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在怎么办</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting bit of recent news from these names came when GameStop reported its quarterly financial update last week. While sales grew by more than 25% compared to the prior-year quarter, GameStop reported another net loss. And investors didn't respond well when the new CEO didn't take questions on&nbsp;the conference call, which only lasted eight minutes.</p><p><blockquote>这些名字最近最有趣的消息来自游戏驿站上周报告其季度财务更新。虽然销售额与去年同期相比增长了25%以上，但游戏驿站报告再次出现净亏损。当新任首席执行官没有在电话会议上回答问题时，投资者的反应并不好，这只持续了八分钟。</blockquote></p><p> Another bit of news from GameStop came out the next day in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Investment management firm<b>BlackRock</b>(NYSE:BLK)reported on Sept. 9 that it held 6.6% of GameStop shares. That indicates the company has sold about 50% of its holdings since it last reported its holdings in January.</p><p><blockquote>第二天，游戏驿站在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中发布了另一条消息。投资管理公司<b>贝莱德</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BLK）9月9日报道称，其持有游戏驿站6.6%的股份。这表明自1月份上次报告持股以来，该公司已出售了约50%的持股。</blockquote></p><p> But the drop in GameStop shares has been recouped with today's move upward. Traders relying on social media may be betting on short squeezes and a retail movement to make money in these names. But serious investors should still focus on business fundamentals. That may be why BlackRock took profits last week.</p><p><blockquote>但游戏驿站股价的跌幅已被今天的上涨所弥补。依赖社交媒体的交易者可能会押注于轧空和散户运动，以这些名义赚钱。但认真的投资者仍然应该关注商业基本面。这可能就是贝莱德上周获利了结的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/13/why-gamestop-stock-jumped-today/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/13/why-gamestop-stock-jumped-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198740697","content_text":"What happened\nIt's hard to know what drives the moves in so-called meme stocks. But after some actual good news for the business helped shares in AMC Entertainment Holdings today, it may just be the others are moving in sympathy. Several other names, including original meme stockGameStop(NYSE:GME)are moving higher. As of 3:50 p.m. EDT, GameStop, apparel retailer Express(NYSE:EXPR), cannabis company Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL), and SmileDirectClub(NASDAQ:SDC)were moving as follows:\n\nGameStop was up 6.5%.\nExpress was up 8.5%.\nSundial Growers was up 2.8%.\nSmileDirectClub was up 16.3%.\n\nSo what\nMeme stocks sometimes seem to move just on the whims of social media forums. But after AMC got a potential shot in the arm from news in the movie industry today, some of the retail traders following these names may be focusing back on short interest to bet onpotential short squeezes. SmileDirectClub has over 32% of its float sold short, as of the end of August, according to data from MarketWatch.\nGameStop still has almost 12.5% of its shares shorted, Express has 5.3%, and Sundial Growers has 26%. Many investors that are betting on these names focus on that metric, hoping that the short-sellers are forced to cover, driving shares higher.\nNow what\nThe most interesting bit of recent news from these names came when GameStop reported its quarterly financial update last week. While sales grew by more than 25% compared to the prior-year quarter, GameStop reported another net loss. And investors didn't respond well when the new CEO didn't take questions on the conference call, which only lasted eight minutes.\nAnother bit of news from GameStop came out the next day in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Investment management firmBlackRock(NYSE:BLK)reported on Sept. 9 that it held 6.6% of GameStop shares. That indicates the company has sold about 50% of its holdings since it last reported its holdings in January.\nBut the drop in GameStop shares has been recouped with today's move upward. Traders relying on social media may be betting on short squeezes and a retail movement to make money in these names. But serious investors should still focus on business fundamentals. That may be why BlackRock took profits last week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888392619,"gmtCreate":1631431376831,"gmtModify":1631889558455,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noted and thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Noted and thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Noted and thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888392619","repostId":"2166370857","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881903250,"gmtCreate":1631283563470,"gmtModify":1631889558454,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice to buy ?","listText":"Nice to buy ?","text":"Nice to buy ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881903250","repostId":"1157873396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157873396","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631283021,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157873396?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 22:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"RLX Technology fell 9% in early trading<blockquote>RLX科技早盘跌9%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157873396","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 10) RLX Technology fell 9% in early trading.","content":"<p>(Sept 10)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a> fell 9% in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>（9月10日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX科技</a>早盘跌9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0f0f2d7b2efab26b1281bb1299d085\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>RLX Technology fell 9% in early trading<blockquote>RLX科技早盘跌9%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRLX Technology fell 9% in early trading<blockquote>RLX科技早盘跌9%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-10 22:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 10)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a> fell 9% in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>（9月10日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX科技</a>早盘跌9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0f0f2d7b2efab26b1281bb1299d085\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157873396","content_text":"(Sept 10) RLX Technology fell 9% in early trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880371801,"gmtCreate":1631022900303,"gmtModify":1631889558456,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Let’s buy the shares&nbsp;","listText":"Let’s buy the shares&nbsp;","text":"Let’s buy the shares","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880371801","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880373337,"gmtCreate":1631022853629,"gmtModify":1631889558459,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Omg this was crazy&nbsp;","listText":"Omg this was crazy&nbsp;","text":"Omg this was crazy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880373337","repostId":"1148433063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817854039,"gmtCreate":1630934868621,"gmtModify":1631889558461,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice post and thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Nice post and thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Nice post and thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817854039","repostId":"1121396906","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814657174,"gmtCreate":1630815825498,"gmtModify":1631889558468,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814657174","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157895022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但正如你将看到的，霍华德分享了很多。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-05 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但正如你将看到的，霍华德分享了很多。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812298941,"gmtCreate":1630589172383,"gmtModify":1631889558472,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice and thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Nice and thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Nice and thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812298941","repostId":"2164847089","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816405044,"gmtCreate":1630510748688,"gmtModify":1631889558474,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Nice thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Nice thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816405044","repostId":"2164550813","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818498766,"gmtCreate":1630423671655,"gmtModify":1631889558476,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818498766","repostId":"1166102613","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811575290,"gmtCreate":1630334064410,"gmtModify":1704958693910,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811575290","repostId":"2163145888","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811576462,"gmtCreate":1630334015056,"gmtModify":1704958691316,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lol haha. Let’s buy&nbsp;","listText":"Lol haha. Let’s buy&nbsp;","text":"Lol haha. Let’s buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811576462","repostId":"2163588460","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813544248,"gmtCreate":1630220182384,"gmtModify":1704957207472,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noted thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Noted thanks&nbsp;","text":"Noted thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813544248","repostId":"2163079604","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813544318,"gmtCreate":1630220139634,"gmtModify":1704957206954,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Come let’s buy&nbsp;","listText":"Come let’s buy&nbsp;","text":"Come let’s buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813544318","repostId":"1129129956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129129956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630201285,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129129956?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-29 09:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天会让你变得富有</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129129956","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.Real estate iBuying company Opendoor Technologieshas been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company  merger. In a race to disrupt residential ","content":"<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.</li>  <li>The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.</li>  <li>The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>iBuying业务是一场做大的竞赛，Opendoor正在获胜。</li><li>该公司的增长速度比管理层一年前的预测提前了两年。</li><li>市场对几乎所有SPAC都持悲观态度，这使得Opendoor成为最终可能带来巨额回报的便宜货。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Real estate iBuying company&nbsp;<b>Opendoor Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>房地产iBuying公司<b>开门技术</b>（纳斯达克：OPEN）自通过特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市以来，三个季度的执行情况一直处于高水平。在颠覆全球最大市场之一住宅房地产的竞赛中，Opendoor的长期潜力可能会为耐心的投资者带来丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有上行空间，市场尚未欣赏Opendoor的成就；该股较高点下跌超过50%。有三个重要线索表明，对于大胆的投资者来说，Opendoor可能是一个引人注目的投资理念。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle</h3> The traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.</p><p><blockquote><h3>1.Opendoor正在赢得iBuying之战</h3>美国传统的购房流程缓慢，由多方处理，包括代理人、律师、检查员和银行家。这造成了大量来回的文书工作，平均将流程拖到30多天。</blockquote></p><p> Opendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>Opendoor开创了“iBuying”的概念，即房屋的买卖是数字化的，像Opendoor这样的公司直接与卖家合作，为他们提供现金报价和数字化成交流程。然后公司在市场上转售房子。iBuying流程省去了代理商和一些与传统成交相关的费用，如代理商佣金。然后Opendoor在市场上转售房屋，并收取高达5%的交易服务费。</blockquote></p><p> After seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.</p><p><blockquote>在看到Opendoor凭借iBuying概念稳步增长后，竞争对手也开始提供iBuying服务，包括<b>Zillow集团</b>和Offerpad。由于该业务的资本密集型程度（买卖数千套房屋需要大量资金）以及房地产市场的价格竞争力，这些公司都在竞相做大。随着公司买卖更多房屋，他们有能力通过利用外包承包商来节省资金来获得更多利润，并且随着交易数量的增加，其定价算法也会改进。</blockquote></p><p> According to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.</p><p><blockquote>根据专门跟踪iBuying竞争对手的网站iBuyerStats的数据，Opendoor一直拥有最多的待售房屋库存。该公司目前约有3,300套待售房屋，比Zillow多53%，是Offerpad的四倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule</h3> When companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.</p><p><blockquote><h3>2、营收增速提前</h3>当公司通过SpacMerger上市时，他们会公开介绍自己的业务，通常包括长期增长预测。大约一年前，即2020年9月，Opendoor发布了合并前投资者演示文稿。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"</p><p><blockquote>快进到该公司最近的2021年第二季度收益看涨期权。首席执行官兼创始人Eric Wu在财报看涨期权上表示，“……根据我们目前的进展，我们下半年的收入运行率有望超过2023年的目标，比计划提前了整整两年。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，如果Opendoor按照目前的业务水平运营12个月，它将超过2023年预计的98亿美元收入。这是一个被忽视的点，因为如果Opendoor已经比其最初的增长曲线提前了两年，那么到2023年它会在哪里？当然，房地产市场下滑或其他事件可能会扰乱公司的增长速度，但Opendoor正在向世界展示该业务正在高水平运营。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?</h3> Investors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.</p><p><blockquote><h3>3、SPAC失宠于市场……机会？</h3>投资者忽略了这一强劲表现，而是关注Opendoor通过SPAC合并加入公开市场的事实。对于前SPAC来说，经营业绩或收益如何并不重要；几个月来，股市几乎一直在抛售所有基于SPAC的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对少数“不良苹果”公司的欺诈行为感到震惊，而其他公司也严重未能实现上市前的预测。这些事件激怒了相关人员，投资者对SPAC整体采取了更加谨慎的态度。</blockquote></p><p> But if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.</p><p><blockquote>但如果像Opendoor这样的公司继续超出预期，市场最终可能会好转。当这种情况发生时，股价可能会大幅波动。如果我们采纳Eric Wu对收入的评论，并假设Opendoor在2022年的销售额为100亿美元（换句话说，Opendoor在接下来的一年里停止增长并保持目前的速度），那么该股目前的市销率(P/S)比率仅为1.0。这是一个便宜的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Competitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手Zillow Group的市盈率超过3，反映了Opendoor作为前SPAC的折扣。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h3>Here's the bottom line</h3> Real estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"<b>Amazon</b>\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is&nbsp;poised to be a big player&nbsp;in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.</p><p><blockquote><h3>这是底线</h3>房地产是一个巨大的市场，也是一个复杂的行业，因为传统代理商和试图将技术引入购房的“新人”之间存在冲突。现在说Opendoor将成为“<b>亚马逊</b>“但似乎可以肯定的是，如果该公司继续保持这样的表现，它将成为房地产未来的重要参与者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天会让你变得富有</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天会让你变得富有</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-29 09:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.</li>  <li>The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.</li>  <li>The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>iBuying业务是一场做大的竞赛，Opendoor正在获胜。</li><li>该公司的增长速度比管理层一年前的预测提前了两年。</li><li>市场对几乎所有SPAC都持悲观态度，这使得Opendoor成为最终可能带来巨额回报的便宜货。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Real estate iBuying company&nbsp;<b>Opendoor Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>房地产iBuying公司<b>开门技术</b>（纳斯达克：OPEN）自通过特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市以来，三个季度的执行情况一直处于高水平。在颠覆全球最大市场之一住宅房地产的竞赛中，Opendoor的长期潜力可能会为耐心的投资者带来丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有上行空间，市场尚未欣赏Opendoor的成就；该股较高点下跌超过50%。有三个重要线索表明，对于大胆的投资者来说，Opendoor可能是一个引人注目的投资理念。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle</h3> The traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.</p><p><blockquote><h3>1.Opendoor正在赢得iBuying之战</h3>美国传统的购房流程缓慢，由多方处理，包括代理人、律师、检查员和银行家。这造成了大量来回的文书工作，平均将流程拖到30多天。</blockquote></p><p> Opendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>Opendoor开创了“iBuying”的概念，即房屋的买卖是数字化的，像Opendoor这样的公司直接与卖家合作，为他们提供现金报价和数字化成交流程。然后公司在市场上转售房子。iBuying流程省去了代理商和一些与传统成交相关的费用，如代理商佣金。然后Opendoor在市场上转售房屋，并收取高达5%的交易服务费。</blockquote></p><p> After seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.</p><p><blockquote>在看到Opendoor凭借iBuying概念稳步增长后，竞争对手也开始提供iBuying服务，包括<b>Zillow集团</b>和Offerpad。由于该业务的资本密集型程度（买卖数千套房屋需要大量资金）以及房地产市场的价格竞争力，这些公司都在竞相做大。随着公司买卖更多房屋，他们有能力通过利用外包承包商来节省资金来获得更多利润，并且随着交易数量的增加，其定价算法也会改进。</blockquote></p><p> According to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.</p><p><blockquote>根据专门跟踪iBuying竞争对手的网站iBuyerStats的数据，Opendoor一直拥有最多的待售房屋库存。该公司目前约有3,300套待售房屋，比Zillow多53%，是Offerpad的四倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule</h3> When companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.</p><p><blockquote><h3>2、营收增速提前</h3>当公司通过SpacMerger上市时，他们会公开介绍自己的业务，通常包括长期增长预测。大约一年前，即2020年9月，Opendoor发布了合并前投资者演示文稿。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"</p><p><blockquote>快进到该公司最近的2021年第二季度收益看涨期权。首席执行官兼创始人Eric Wu在财报看涨期权上表示，“……根据我们目前的进展，我们下半年的收入运行率有望超过2023年的目标，比计划提前了整整两年。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，如果Opendoor按照目前的业务水平运营12个月，它将超过2023年预计的98亿美元收入。这是一个被忽视的点，因为如果Opendoor已经比其最初的增长曲线提前了两年，那么到2023年它会在哪里？当然，房地产市场下滑或其他事件可能会扰乱公司的增长速度，但Opendoor正在向世界展示该业务正在高水平运营。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?</h3> Investors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.</p><p><blockquote><h3>3、SPAC失宠于市场……机会？</h3>投资者忽略了这一强劲表现，而是关注Opendoor通过SPAC合并加入公开市场的事实。对于前SPAC来说，经营业绩或收益如何并不重要；几个月来，股市几乎一直在抛售所有基于SPAC的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对少数“不良苹果”公司的欺诈行为感到震惊，而其他公司也严重未能实现上市前的预测。这些事件激怒了相关人员，投资者对SPAC整体采取了更加谨慎的态度。</blockquote></p><p> But if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.</p><p><blockquote>但如果像Opendoor这样的公司继续超出预期，市场最终可能会好转。当这种情况发生时，股价可能会大幅波动。如果我们采纳Eric Wu对收入的评论，并假设Opendoor在2022年的销售额为100亿美元（换句话说，Opendoor在接下来的一年里停止增长并保持目前的速度），那么该股目前的市销率(P/S)比率仅为1.0。这是一个便宜的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Competitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手Zillow Group的市盈率超过3，反映了Opendoor作为前SPAC的折扣。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h3>Here's the bottom line</h3> Real estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"<b>Amazon</b>\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is&nbsp;poised to be a big player&nbsp;in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.</p><p><blockquote><h3>这是底线</h3>房地产是一个巨大的市场，也是一个复杂的行业，因为传统代理商和试图将技术引入购房的“新人”之间存在冲突。现在说Opendoor将成为“<b>亚马逊</b>“但似乎可以肯定的是，如果该公司继续保持这样的表现，它将成为房地产未来的重要参与者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/28/this-unloved-tech-stock-may-make-you-rich-one-day/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OPEN":"Opendoor Technologies Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/28/this-unloved-tech-stock-may-make-you-rich-one-day/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129129956","content_text":"Key Points\n\nThe iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.\nThe company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.\nThe market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.\n\n\nReal estate iBuying company Opendoor Technologies(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.\nDespite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.\n1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle\nThe traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.\nOpendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.\nAfter seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including Zillow Group and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.\nAccording to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.\n2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule\nWhen companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.\nFast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"\nIn other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.\n3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?\nInvestors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.\nInvestors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.\nBut if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.\nCompetitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.\nHere's the bottom line\nReal estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"Amazon\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is poised to be a big player in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OPEN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810496542,"gmtCreate":1629990270186,"gmtModify":1704954317171,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Omg that serious&nbsp;","listText":"Omg that serious&nbsp;","text":"Omg that serious","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810496542","repostId":"1186610229","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837469971,"gmtCreate":1629905783493,"gmtModify":1633681554829,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ohh great&nbsp;","listText":"Ohh great&nbsp;","text":"Ohh great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837469971","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834506460,"gmtCreate":1629811832050,"gmtModify":1633682285186,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I think Nio will be more potential&nbsp;","listText":"I think Nio will be more potential&nbsp;","text":"I think Nio will be more potential","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834506460","repostId":"1175602248","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832447141,"gmtCreate":1629676649083,"gmtModify":1633683429122,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573712211428139","idStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok noted","listText":"Ok noted","text":"Ok noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832447141","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":809918747,"gmtCreate":1627343786589,"gmtModify":1633765987612,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573712211428139","authorIdStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes Tesla keep going. And pls help me like&nbsp;","listText":"Yes Tesla keep going. And pls help me like&nbsp;","text":"Yes Tesla keep going. And pls help me like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809918747","repostId":"1153028059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153028059","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627340900,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153028059?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153028059","media":"Reuters","summary":" -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operati","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-特斯拉公司周二公布的第二季度利润高于预期，这得益于其较便宜的电动汽车销量大幅增长，该公司提高了价格以提高其利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还削减了成本，这有助于抵消汽车行业面临的许多供应链和微芯片短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年底以来，特斯拉的利润首次不依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售环境信用，这表明制造业务的财务状况日益健康。特斯拉通过削减其称未使用或不需要的功能以及提高美国汽车价格来提高其业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.</p><p><blockquote>这家全球最有价值汽车制造商的股价在盘后交易中上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.</p><p><blockquote>在与投资者和分析师的看涨期权中，特斯拉高管表示，量产增长将取决于零部件供应情况，马斯克警告称，半导体短缺将持续。</blockquote></p><p> “The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>“全球芯片短缺的情况仍然相当严重，”马斯克说。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Musk表示，特斯拉预计今年将在德克萨斯和德意志的在建工厂投产Model Y SUV。他表示，该公司预计电池供应商明年的产量将翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临疫情和供应链危机，但得益于Model 3轿车和Model Y等更便宜车型的销售，特斯拉在本季度的交付量仍创下了纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这家由亿万富翁企业家埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)领导的汽车制造商表示，收入从一年前的60.4亿美元跃升至119.6亿美元，当时其加州工厂因当地抗击疫情的封锁令而关闭了六周多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，分析师此前预计营收约为113亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>剔除项目后，特斯拉公布的每股利润为1.45美元，轻松超过分析师预期的每股98美分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，营业收入随着销量增长和成本降低而上升，这抵消了供应链成本上升、监管信贷收入下降和其他项目，包括加密货币比特币投资损失2300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力通常依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售监管信用，但在第二季度，特斯拉自2019年底以来首次在没有这些信用的情况下实现盈利。其第二季度GAAP净利润为11.4亿美元。这些积分的收入总计仅为3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.</p><p><blockquote>Investing.com高级分析师Jesse Cohen表示：“特斯拉对其数据印象深刻，因为其大部分收入来自汽车销售。”</blockquote></p><p> Carmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商Stellantis预计今年将在没有从特斯拉购买环境信用额的情况下实现其欧洲二氧化碳(CO2)排放目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，由于今年电池和其他零部件的供应有限，该公司已将Semi卡车计划的启动推迟到2022年，以专注于启动工厂。</blockquote></p><p> But the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的新型4680电池尚未准备好量产；高管们表示，很难预测技术挑战何时会得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> In an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，马斯克表示，他“很可能不会在财报评级上”与投资者和分析师讨论财务业绩。这些评级是马斯克每季度举行的一次丰富多彩的仪式，马斯克用它来讨论特斯拉技术，或者回击竞争对手或批评者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-特斯拉公司周二公布的第二季度利润高于预期，这得益于其较便宜的电动汽车销量大幅增长，该公司提高了价格以提高其利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还削减了成本，这有助于抵消汽车行业面临的许多供应链和微芯片短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年底以来，特斯拉的利润首次不依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售环境信用，这表明制造业务的财务状况日益健康。特斯拉通过削减其称未使用或不需要的功能以及提高美国汽车价格来提高其业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.</p><p><blockquote>这家全球最有价值汽车制造商的股价在盘后交易中上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.</p><p><blockquote>在与投资者和分析师的看涨期权中，特斯拉高管表示，量产增长将取决于零部件供应情况，马斯克警告称，半导体短缺将持续。</blockquote></p><p> “The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>“全球芯片短缺的情况仍然相当严重，”马斯克说。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Musk表示，特斯拉预计今年将在德克萨斯和德意志的在建工厂投产Model Y SUV。他表示，该公司预计电池供应商明年的产量将翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临疫情和供应链危机，但得益于Model 3轿车和Model Y等更便宜车型的销售，特斯拉在本季度的交付量仍创下了纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这家由亿万富翁企业家埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)领导的汽车制造商表示，收入从一年前的60.4亿美元跃升至119.6亿美元，当时其加州工厂因当地抗击疫情的封锁令而关闭了六周多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，分析师此前预计营收约为113亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>剔除项目后，特斯拉公布的每股利润为1.45美元，轻松超过分析师预期的每股98美分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，营业收入随着销量增长和成本降低而上升，这抵消了供应链成本上升、监管信贷收入下降和其他项目，包括加密货币比特币投资损失2300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力通常依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售监管信用，但在第二季度，特斯拉自2019年底以来首次在没有这些信用的情况下实现盈利。其第二季度GAAP净利润为11.4亿美元。这些积分的收入总计仅为3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.</p><p><blockquote>Investing.com高级分析师Jesse Cohen表示：“特斯拉对其数据印象深刻，因为其大部分收入来自汽车销售。”</blockquote></p><p> Carmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商Stellantis预计今年将在没有从特斯拉购买环境信用额的情况下实现其欧洲二氧化碳(CO2)排放目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，由于今年电池和其他零部件的供应有限，该公司已将Semi卡车计划的启动推迟到2022年，以专注于启动工厂。</blockquote></p><p> But the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的新型4680电池尚未准备好量产；高管们表示，很难预测技术挑战何时会得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> In an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，马斯克表示，他“很可能不会在财报评级上”与投资者和分析师讨论财务业绩。这些评级是马斯克每季度举行的一次丰富多彩的仪式，马斯克用它来讨论特斯拉技术，或者回击竞争对手或批评者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153028059","content_text":"(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.\nTesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.\nFor the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.\nShares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.\nIn a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.\n“The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.\nStill, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.\nDespite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.\nThe carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.\nAnalysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nExcluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.\nTesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.\nTesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.\n“Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.\nCarmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.\nTesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.\nBut the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.\nIn an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863567485,"gmtCreate":1632406753947,"gmtModify":1632731504440,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573712211428139","authorIdStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice post and thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Nice post and thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Nice post and thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863567485","repostId":"2169667599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173773269,"gmtCreate":1626691504751,"gmtModify":1633924908956,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573712211428139","authorIdStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noted thanks for the sharing. Pls help me like too[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"Noted thanks for the sharing. Pls help me like too[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"Noted thanks for the sharing. Pls help me like too[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173773269","repostId":"2152632587","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886648184,"gmtCreate":1631589209748,"gmtModify":1631889558450,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573712211428139","authorIdStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Jump to the moon&nbsp;","listText":"Jump to the moon&nbsp;","text":"Jump to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886648184","repostId":"1198740697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198740697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631589054,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198740697?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-14 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why GameStop and Other Meme Stocks Jumped Today<blockquote>为什么游戏驿站和其他模因股票今天上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198740697","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"What happened\nIt's hard to know what drives the moves in so-called meme stocks. But after some actua","content":"<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to know what drives the moves in so-called meme stocks. But after some actual good news for the business helped shares in&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>&nbsp;today, it may just be the others are moving in sympathy. Several other names, including original meme stock<b>GameStop</b>(NYSE:GME)are moving higher. As of 3:50 p.m. EDT, GameStop, apparel retailer&nbsp;<b>Express</b>(NYSE:EXPR), cannabis company&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL), and&nbsp;<b>SmileDirectClub</b>(NASDAQ:SDC)were moving as follows:</p><p><blockquote>很难知道是什么推动了所谓的模因股票的走势。但在一些实际的好消息帮助该公司股价上涨后<b>AMC院线控股</b>今天，可能只是其他人出于同情而行动。其他几个名字，包括原始模因股票<b>游戏驿站</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）正在走高。截至下午3:50美国东部时间，游戏驿站，服装零售商<b>表达</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：EXPR），大麻公司<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克：SNDL），以及<b>SmileDirectClub</b>（纳斯达克：SDC）的行动如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop was up 6.5%.</li>  <li>Express was up 8.5%.</li>  <li>Sundial Growers was up 2.8%.</li>  <li>SmileDirectClub was up 16.3%.</li> </ul> So what</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站上涨6.5%。</li><li>Express上涨8.5%。</li><li>Sundial Growers上涨2.8%。</li><li>SmileDirectClub上涨16.3%。</li></ul>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks sometimes seem to move just on the whims of social media forums. But after&nbsp;AMC got a potential shot in the arm from news in the movie industry&nbsp;today, some of the retail traders following these names may be focusing back on short interest to bet onpotential short squeezes. SmileDirectClub has over 32% of its float sold short, as of the end of August, according to data from MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票有时似乎只是根据社交媒体论坛的突发奇想而波动。但在AMC今天从电影业的新闻中获得了一剂强心针后，一些关注这些名字的散户交易者可能会重新关注空头兴趣，押注潜在的空头挤压。根据MarketWatch的数据，截至8月底，SmileDirectClub超过32%的流通股被卖空。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop still has almost 12.5% of its shares shorted, Express has 5.3%, and Sundial Growers has 26%. Many investors that are betting on these names focus on that metric, hoping that the&nbsp;short-sellers are forced to cover, driving shares higher.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站仍有近12.5%的股份被做空，Express有5.3%，Sundial Growers有26%。许多押注这些名字的投资者都关注这一指标，希望卖空者被迫回补，从而推动股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在怎么办</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting bit of recent news from these names came when GameStop reported its quarterly financial update last week. While sales grew by more than 25% compared to the prior-year quarter, GameStop reported another net loss. And investors didn't respond well when the new CEO didn't take questions on&nbsp;the conference call, which only lasted eight minutes.</p><p><blockquote>这些名字最近最有趣的消息来自游戏驿站上周报告其季度财务更新。虽然销售额与去年同期相比增长了25%以上，但游戏驿站报告再次出现净亏损。当新任首席执行官没有在电话会议上回答问题时，投资者的反应并不好，这只持续了八分钟。</blockquote></p><p> Another bit of news from GameStop came out the next day in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Investment management firm<b>BlackRock</b>(NYSE:BLK)reported on Sept. 9 that it held 6.6% of GameStop shares. That indicates the company has sold about 50% of its holdings since it last reported its holdings in January.</p><p><blockquote>第二天，游戏驿站在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中发布了另一条消息。投资管理公司<b>贝莱德</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BLK）9月9日报道称，其持有游戏驿站6.6%的股份。这表明自1月份上次报告持股以来，该公司已出售了约50%的持股。</blockquote></p><p> But the drop in GameStop shares has been recouped with today's move upward. Traders relying on social media may be betting on short squeezes and a retail movement to make money in these names. But serious investors should still focus on business fundamentals. That may be why BlackRock took profits last week.</p><p><blockquote>但游戏驿站股价的跌幅已被今天的上涨所弥补。依赖社交媒体的交易者可能会押注于轧空和散户运动，以这些名义赚钱。但认真的投资者仍然应该关注商业基本面。这可能就是贝莱德上周获利了结的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why GameStop and Other Meme Stocks Jumped Today<blockquote>为什么游戏驿站和其他模因股票今天上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy GameStop and Other Meme Stocks Jumped Today<blockquote>为什么游戏驿站和其他模因股票今天上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-14 11:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to know what drives the moves in so-called meme stocks. But after some actual good news for the business helped shares in&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>&nbsp;today, it may just be the others are moving in sympathy. Several other names, including original meme stock<b>GameStop</b>(NYSE:GME)are moving higher. As of 3:50 p.m. EDT, GameStop, apparel retailer&nbsp;<b>Express</b>(NYSE:EXPR), cannabis company&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL), and&nbsp;<b>SmileDirectClub</b>(NASDAQ:SDC)were moving as follows:</p><p><blockquote>很难知道是什么推动了所谓的模因股票的走势。但在一些实际的好消息帮助该公司股价上涨后<b>AMC院线控股</b>今天，可能只是其他人出于同情而行动。其他几个名字，包括原始模因股票<b>游戏驿站</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）正在走高。截至下午3:50美国东部时间，游戏驿站，服装零售商<b>表达</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：EXPR），大麻公司<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克：SNDL），以及<b>SmileDirectClub</b>（纳斯达克：SDC）的行动如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop was up 6.5%.</li>  <li>Express was up 8.5%.</li>  <li>Sundial Growers was up 2.8%.</li>  <li>SmileDirectClub was up 16.3%.</li> </ul> So what</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站上涨6.5%。</li><li>Express上涨8.5%。</li><li>Sundial Growers上涨2.8%。</li><li>SmileDirectClub上涨16.3%。</li></ul>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks sometimes seem to move just on the whims of social media forums. But after&nbsp;AMC got a potential shot in the arm from news in the movie industry&nbsp;today, some of the retail traders following these names may be focusing back on short interest to bet onpotential short squeezes. SmileDirectClub has over 32% of its float sold short, as of the end of August, according to data from MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票有时似乎只是根据社交媒体论坛的突发奇想而波动。但在AMC今天从电影业的新闻中获得了一剂强心针后，一些关注这些名字的散户交易者可能会重新关注空头兴趣，押注潜在的空头挤压。根据MarketWatch的数据，截至8月底，SmileDirectClub超过32%的流通股被卖空。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop still has almost 12.5% of its shares shorted, Express has 5.3%, and Sundial Growers has 26%. Many investors that are betting on these names focus on that metric, hoping that the&nbsp;short-sellers are forced to cover, driving shares higher.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站仍有近12.5%的股份被做空，Express有5.3%，Sundial Growers有26%。许多押注这些名字的投资者都关注这一指标，希望卖空者被迫回补，从而推动股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在怎么办</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting bit of recent news from these names came when GameStop reported its quarterly financial update last week. While sales grew by more than 25% compared to the prior-year quarter, GameStop reported another net loss. And investors didn't respond well when the new CEO didn't take questions on&nbsp;the conference call, which only lasted eight minutes.</p><p><blockquote>这些名字最近最有趣的消息来自游戏驿站上周报告其季度财务更新。虽然销售额与去年同期相比增长了25%以上，但游戏驿站报告再次出现净亏损。当新任首席执行官没有在电话会议上回答问题时，投资者的反应并不好，这只持续了八分钟。</blockquote></p><p> Another bit of news from GameStop came out the next day in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Investment management firm<b>BlackRock</b>(NYSE:BLK)reported on Sept. 9 that it held 6.6% of GameStop shares. That indicates the company has sold about 50% of its holdings since it last reported its holdings in January.</p><p><blockquote>第二天，游戏驿站在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中发布了另一条消息。投资管理公司<b>贝莱德</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BLK）9月9日报道称，其持有游戏驿站6.6%的股份。这表明自1月份上次报告持股以来，该公司已出售了约50%的持股。</blockquote></p><p> But the drop in GameStop shares has been recouped with today's move upward. Traders relying on social media may be betting on short squeezes and a retail movement to make money in these names. But serious investors should still focus on business fundamentals. That may be why BlackRock took profits last week.</p><p><blockquote>但游戏驿站股价的跌幅已被今天的上涨所弥补。依赖社交媒体的交易者可能会押注于轧空和散户运动，以这些名义赚钱。但认真的投资者仍然应该关注商业基本面。这可能就是贝莱德上周获利了结的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/13/why-gamestop-stock-jumped-today/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/13/why-gamestop-stock-jumped-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198740697","content_text":"What happened\nIt's hard to know what drives the moves in so-called meme stocks. But after some actual good news for the business helped shares in AMC Entertainment Holdings today, it may just be the others are moving in sympathy. Several other names, including original meme stockGameStop(NYSE:GME)are moving higher. As of 3:50 p.m. EDT, GameStop, apparel retailer Express(NYSE:EXPR), cannabis company Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL), and SmileDirectClub(NASDAQ:SDC)were moving as follows:\n\nGameStop was up 6.5%.\nExpress was up 8.5%.\nSundial Growers was up 2.8%.\nSmileDirectClub was up 16.3%.\n\nSo what\nMeme stocks sometimes seem to move just on the whims of social media forums. But after AMC got a potential shot in the arm from news in the movie industry today, some of the retail traders following these names may be focusing back on short interest to bet onpotential short squeezes. SmileDirectClub has over 32% of its float sold short, as of the end of August, according to data from MarketWatch.\nGameStop still has almost 12.5% of its shares shorted, Express has 5.3%, and Sundial Growers has 26%. Many investors that are betting on these names focus on that metric, hoping that the short-sellers are forced to cover, driving shares higher.\nNow what\nThe most interesting bit of recent news from these names came when GameStop reported its quarterly financial update last week. While sales grew by more than 25% compared to the prior-year quarter, GameStop reported another net loss. And investors didn't respond well when the new CEO didn't take questions on the conference call, which only lasted eight minutes.\nAnother bit of news from GameStop came out the next day in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Investment management firmBlackRock(NYSE:BLK)reported on Sept. 9 that it held 6.6% of GameStop shares. That indicates the company has sold about 50% of its holdings since it last reported its holdings in January.\nBut the drop in GameStop shares has been recouped with today's move upward. Traders relying on social media may be betting on short squeezes and a retail movement to make money in these names. But serious investors should still focus on business fundamentals. That may be why BlackRock took profits last week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894061666,"gmtCreate":1628778259255,"gmtModify":1633689563559,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573712211428139","authorIdStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894061666","repostId":"2158250170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2158250170","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1628777697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2158250170?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-12 22:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Three-Prong Crucible? Markets Eye Record Highs Amid Inflation, Fiscal, And Delta Uncertainty<blockquote>三叉坩埚？在通胀、财政和三角洲的不确定性中，市场关注历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158250170","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Yesterday the market got behind the Fed’s idea that inflation is transitory after a calm consumer price index (CPI) reading. ","content":"<p>Yesterday the market got behind the Fed’s idea that inflation is transitory after a calm consumer price index (CPI) reading.</p><p><blockquote>昨天，在消费者价格指数（CPI）数据平静后，市场支持美联储的观点，即通胀是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Will that change today after a sizzling producer price index (PPI) reading? Remember that any gains in PPI can often get reflected in CPI down the road as companies react to higher wholesale prices by passing them along to the consumer. And then there’s the other side of the coin—where companies absorb these prices, which can impact margins. Either way, inflation tends to pack a wallop.</p><p><blockquote>在生产者价格指数（PPI）数据炙手可热之后，今天这种情况会改变吗？请记住，PPI的任何上涨通常都会反映在未来的CPI中，因为企业会通过将批发价格上涨转嫁给消费者来应对批发价格上涨。还有硬币的另一面——公司吸收这些价格，这可能会影响利润率。无论哪种方式，通货膨胀往往会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> Major indices didn’t immediately react much to a July PPI reading of 1%, which was way above the Wall Street analyst consensus of 0.5%. That followed yesterday’s CPI coming in about as expected and well below the June level. The July PPI was equal to June’s, so that kind of takes a bit of the transitory argument away. Also, core PPI, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, was the same as the headline figure, so there’s no hiding behind that.</p><p><blockquote>主要股指没有立即对7月份PPI读数1%做出太大反应，该读数远高于华尔街分析师普遍预期的0.5%。此前，昨天的CPI与预期大致相同，远低于6月份的水平。7月份的生产者价格指数与6月份持平，因此这在某种程度上消除了一些暂时性的论点。此外，剔除波动较大的能源和食品价格的核心生产者价格指数与总体数据相同，因此这背后没有任何隐藏。</blockquote></p><p> The PPI report is just the start of today’s action. Later on,&nbsp;<b>Disney&nbsp;</b>(NYSE:DIS)&nbsp;steps onto center stage&nbsp;with its earnings report. Focus is likely to be on streaming and whether the Delta variant might slow attendance gains at theme parks and movie theaters. It’s likely DIS executives will be asked how the big jump in Florida cases is affecting the Magic Kingdom in Orlando.</p><p><blockquote>PPI报告只是今天行动的开始。后来，<b>迪斯尼</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）凭借其收益报告走上舞台。焦点可能是流媒体以及德尔塔变异毒株是否会减缓主题公园和电影院的上座率增长。DIS高管很可能会被问及佛罗里达州案件的大幅增加如何影响奥兰多的魔法王国。</blockquote></p><p> Weekly jobless claims of 375,000 were more in line with estimates and pretty much down the middle compared with recent numbers. There doesn’t seem to be much improvement going on here, but it’s not getting worse, either. The number probably won’t have much influence today.</p><p><blockquote>每周申请失业救济人数为375,000人，更符合预期，与最近的数字相比几乎处于中间位置。这里似乎没有太大的改善，但也没有变得更糟。这个数字在今天可能不会有太大影响。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, investors are likely to spend their time trying to make sense of these contrasting inflation indicators, which might explain why major indices initially went nowhere in pre-market trading on the PPI reading. Does this strong PPI give the Fed more reason to begin its tapering earlier than expected, or will the Fed wait for another month of data to try and get more clarity? If history means anything, we can probably bet on option two.</p><p><blockquote>相反，投资者可能会花时间试图理解这些截然不同的通胀指标，这或许可以解释为什么主要指数最初在PPI读数的盘前交易中毫无进展。强劲的PPI是否让美联储有更多理由比预期更早开始缩减规模，或者美联储是否会等待另一个月的数据来尝试获得更多清晰度？如果历史有任何意义，我们或许可以赌第二种选择。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Inflationary Showdown Shows Slight Slowdown</h2> Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report told investors mostly what they already knew: overall inflation is running hot. But that’s not what the market was keen to focus on. Instead, investors appeared to be looking at the core CPI, which jumped 4.3% year over year as expected but only 0.3% on a monthly basis—a tad less than the 0.4% analysts estimated.</p><p><blockquote><h2>通胀摊牌略有放缓</h2>周三的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告告诉了投资者大部分他们已经知道的事情：整体通胀正在升温。但这并不是市场热衷于关注的。相反，投资者似乎关注的是核心CPI，该CPI同比上涨4.3%，符合预期，但环比仅上涨0.3%，略低于分析师预期的0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> On top of this, the Fed’s “transitory” narrative suddenly seemed a bit more believable as a slowdown in used car prices likely allayed fears of a monetary sudden-brake shock. Used car prices rose only 0.2% in July, a small bump compared to the prior month’s steep 10% surge.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，美联储的“暂时性”叙述突然变得更加可信，因为二手车价格放缓可能会缓解人们对货币急刹车冲击的担忧。7月份二手车价格仅上涨0.2%，与上个月10%的大幅上涨相比小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> But again, this morning’s PPI seems to be at least a partial counterargument to the transitory view. A single month’s data isn’t a trend, but this is certainly <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> to keep an eye on.</p><p><blockquote>但同样，今天上午的PPI似乎至少是对暂时性观点的部分反驳。单月的数据不是趋势，但这肯定是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>来留意。</blockquote></p><p> Following the CPI report, the&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;</b>($DJI) jumped as much as 200 points, with&nbsp;<b>Caterpillar&nbsp;</b>(NYSE:CAT) and&nbsp;<b>Home Depot</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:HD) leading the index, while 10-year Treasury yields stood mostly flat, and “FAANG” stocks slid into negative territory, with the exception of&nbsp;<b>Apple&nbsp;</b>(NASDAQ:AAPL). Could it be that fears of a “too-laid-back” Fed policy are starting to morph into a “just right” Goldilocks scenario?</p><p><blockquote>继CPI报告之后，<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>($DJI)上涨200点，<b>卡特彼勒</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CAT）和<b>家得宝</b>(NYSE：HD)领涨该指数，而10年期国债收益率基本持平，“FAANG”股票跌至负值区域，但<b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）。对美联储政策“过于宽松”的担忧是否开始演变成“恰到好处”的金发姑娘情景？</blockquote></p><p> Big cyclical sectors like Energy and Financials were already on the upswing this week even before yesterday’s bullish CPI data. Strength in these sectors helped give the blue-chip&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>&nbsp;($DJI) a lift so far over the other major indices.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在昨天看涨的CPI数据公布之前，能源和金融等大型周期性板块本周就已经在上涨。这些行业的走强帮助蓝筹股<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>($DJI)迄今为止的涨幅高于其他主要指数。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Small-Caps Still Scuffling</h2> So where does that leave small-caps, which are often known for their solid performance during economic recoveries? The small-cap&nbsp;<b>Russell 2000 Index</b>&nbsp;(RUT) is still scuffling a bit, pretty much flat so far this month and well below its 2021 highs. It did rise a bit on Wednesday, but again got outpaced by the $DJI. It’s basically still stuck in a volatile 5-month “rut” despite the strong and steady doses of easy-money policy.</p><p><blockquote><h2>小盘股仍在混战</h2>那么，通常以在经济复苏期间表现稳健而闻名的小盘股将何去何从呢？小盘股<b>罗素2000指数</b>(RUT)仍在挣扎，本月迄今为止基本持平，远低于2021年的高点。周三确实上涨了一点，但再次被美元DJI超越。尽管采取了强有力且稳定的宽松货币政策，但它基本上仍然陷入了动荡的5个月“窠臼”。</blockquote></p><p> It might be worth watching to see if RUT can break out of the slow pattern it entered after emerging from its early summer selloff. Which way RUT goes from here might help provide clues about the market as a whole, because RUT can be an early leader up or down.</p><p><blockquote>看看RUT是否能打破初夏抛售后进入的缓慢模式可能值得关注。RUT从这里走向何方可能有助于提供有关整个市场的线索，因为RUT可能是早期上涨或下跌的领导者。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another consideration is where the&nbsp;FAANG stocks&nbsp;go if Treasury yields resume their climb. Remember that earlier this year, rising yields appeared to take a big bite out of the “mega-cap” Tech stocks, with AAPL and<b>&nbsp;Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA) among that hit hardest. It’s fine to say that Financials and Energy can pick up the slack, but that ignores the fact that the FAANGs—like it or not—comprise about 20% of the value of the SPX. That means any significant setbacks for these huge companies could drag the overall index.</p><p><blockquote>另一个考虑因素是，如果美国国债收益率恢复攀升，FAANG股票将何去何从。请记住，今年早些时候，收益率上升似乎对“大型”科技股造成了很大影响，苹果公司和<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）是受打击最严重国家之一。可以说金融和能源可以弥补这一缺口，但这忽略了一个事实，即FAANG——不管你喜欢与否——约占SPX价值的20%。这意味着这些大公司的任何重大挫折都可能拖累整体指数。</blockquote></p><p> Since May, mega-cap Techs have been helping pull up the SPX while some of the other sectors struggle. Analysts are talking about how the rally has less “depth,” meaning it’s more dependent on a few big gorillas to keep it going. While yields aren’t in the kind of territory we saw last spring, it’s worth watching that relationship between yields and FAANGs for clues about where the market goes next.</p><p><blockquote>自5月份以来，大型科技股一直在帮助拉升SPX指数，而其他一些行业却陷入困境。分析师们正在谈论涨势的“深度”如何降低，这意味着它更依赖于几只大猩猩来维持涨势。虽然收益率没有达到我们去年春天看到的水平，但值得关注收益率和FAANG之间的关系，以寻找市场下一步走向的线索。</blockquote></p><p> If inflation growth is actually slowing—and one CPI report isn’t a trend—that could drive optimism that the Fed won’t clamp down right away, perhaps keeping yields from overheating and mega-caps from melting down. Now the PPI report may have people rethinking that. The tug of war continues.</p><p><blockquote>如果通胀增长实际上正在放缓——而一份CPI报告并不是趋势——这可能会激发人们的乐观情绪，即美联储不会立即收紧政策，或许会防止收益率过热和大型股崩溃。现在PPI报告可能会让人们重新思考这一点。拉锯战仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>The Sweet And The Sour Impact Of Washington</h2> Stocks got a nice assist from Congress earlier this week when the Senate passed the infrastructure bill. On the opposite side of the equation, markets seem to be ignoring a debate in Congress over the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen encouraged the parties to find a solution, and for now, the thinking on Wall Street seems to be that there will be one. However, that doesn’t mean a smooth process.</p><p><blockquote><h2>华盛顿的酸甜苦辣影响</h2>本周早些时候，当参议院通过基础设施法案时，股市得到了国会的良好帮助。另一方面，市场似乎忽视了国会关于债务上限的辩论。财政部长珍妮特·耶伦鼓励各方找到解决方案，目前华尔街的想法似乎是会有一个解决方案。然而，这并不意味着一个顺利的过程。</blockquote></p><p> There was eventually a solution in 2011, too, and the U.S. didn’t default on its debt payments. But it did see its credit rating lowered, and stocks took a pounding that summer. We’ll see if Congress can avoid getting to that point this time around. As a reminder, the debt ceiling has been raised numerous times since the 1980s, with both parties voting to do so. The last time was in 2019, under President Trump.</p><p><blockquote>2011年最终也有了解决方案，美国没有拖欠债务。但它的信用评级确实被下调，股市在那年夏天遭受重创。我们将看看国会这次是否能避免走到这一步。提醒一下，自20世纪80年代以来，债务上限已多次提高，两党都投票支持。上一次是在2019年，特朗普总统执政期间。</blockquote></p><p> If the debt ceiling fight starts to ramp up,&nbsp;volatility&nbsp;could eventually return. It’s not really a big factor right now, but don’t be surprised if we see some intraday volatility continue in the coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>如果债务上限之争开始加剧，波动性最终可能会卷土重来。目前这并不是一个很大的因素，但如果我们看到未来几周内继续出现一些日内波动，请不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> You saw the beginnings of that the last couple of weeks, where we’d be up significantly in the morning and sell back off. Or be down significantly in the morning and rally back. We’re probably going to see that pattern continue because besides awaiting the next steps on the infrastructure bill, the market still awaits clarity from the Fed. And even though this bill is exciting, that clarity from the Fed is arguably the big cloud that everything else operates underneath right now as far as the market is concerned.</p><p><blockquote>你看到了过去几周的开始，我们会在早上大幅上涨并抛售。或者早上大幅下跌然后反弹。我们可能会看到这种模式继续下去，因为除了等待基础设施法案的下一步措施外，市场仍在等待美联储的澄清。尽管这项法案令人兴奋，但就市场而言，美联储的明确性可以说是目前其他一切都在其下运行的大乌云。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, yesterday Kansas City Fed President Esther George said it was time for the central bank to begin pulling back its bond-buying program. There’s been similar language from other Fed officials recently. No single person at the Fed sets policy, but at least a few seem to be chomping at the bit, so to speak, to start tapering.</p><p><blockquote>例如，昨天堪萨斯城联储主席埃丝特·乔治表示，央行是时候开始撤回债券购买计划了。最近，其他美联储官员也发表了类似的言论。美联储没有一个人制定政策，但至少有一些人似乎迫不及待地想开始缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://tickertapecdn.tdameritrade.com/assets/images/pages/md/2021-08-12-chart.png\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>CHART OF THE DAY: WHAT’S YOUR 50? Though it’s been a while since the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) suffered a setback, it’s worth noting that mid-month has been tough for it the last few months. That doesn’t mean there’s a selloff ahead, only that you might want to prepare for one if the pattern persists. Assuming things run into trouble, the level to watch is the 50-day moving average (blue line), which currently rests about 3% below the index. That’s pretty much how far things fell in mid-July when the last selloff occurred before the SPX bounced off of that 50-day MA. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>每日图表：你的50岁是多少？尽管标普500指数（SPX-Candlestick）遭受挫折已经有一段时间了，但值得注意的是，过去几个月中旬对其来说一直很艰难。这并不意味着未来会出现抛售，只是如果这种模式持续下去，您可能需要为抛售做好准备。假设事情遇到麻烦，值得关注的水平是50日移动平均线（蓝线），目前该平均线比指数低约3%。这几乎就是7月中旬SPX从50日均线反弹之前的最后一次抛售发生时的跌幅。数据来源：标准普尔道琼斯指数。图表来源：thinkorswim®平台。仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A Tale Of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> Earnings And Reopening:&nbsp;</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA\">Two</a> earnings reports out this week help illustrate how people are still eager to get out of their homes despite Delta variant fears. First,<b>&nbsp;Ebay</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:EBAY) gave some muted Q3 guidance because people don’t want to stay home checking online auctions. Then dating site<b>&nbsp;Bumble</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BMBL) did better than expected, also because people want to get out. This can show us two things. First, there’s still a lot of pent-up demand to get back to normal. Number two, EBAY might give us insight into what to expect from other retailers, especially those who rely a lot on digital, when retail earnings season gets underway in earnest next week.</p><p><blockquote><b>的故事<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">两个</a>收益和重新开业：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA\">两个</a>本周发布的收益报告有助于说明，尽管存在德尔塔变异毒株担忧，人们仍然渴望走出家门。首先，<b>Ebay</b>（纳斯达克：EBAY）给出了一些温和的第三季度指导，因为人们不想呆在家里查看在线拍卖。然后交友网站<b>邦布尔</b>（纳斯达克：BMBL）表现好于预期，也是因为人们想退出。这可以告诉我们两件事。首先，仍有很多被压抑的需求需要恢复正常。第二，当下周零售财报季正式开始时，EBAY可能会让我们深入了解对其他零售商的期望，尤其是那些严重依赖数字的零售商。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Patience Could Be A&nbsp;Virtue With Infrastructure Stocks:&nbsp;</b>Companies like&nbsp;<b>U.S. Steel&nbsp;</b>(NYSE:X),&nbsp;<b>General Electric</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:GE), and&nbsp;<b>Cleveland-Cliffs</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:CLF) all had a nice bump this week on the Senate’s infrastructure bill passage. But remember, this isn’t something that’s going to hit the economy for a while. If you’re looking longer term as an investor and you want to own these stocks for a few years, that’s probably where the bigger opportunity is. In the shorter term, you could see an initial bump, and then maybe a little bit of a flattening out.</p><p><blockquote><b>耐心可能是基础设施股票的一种美德：</b>公司喜欢<b>美国钢铁公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：X），<b>通用电气</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：GE），以及<b>克利夫兰悬崖</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CLF）本周，参议院基础设施法案的通过都取得了不错的进展。但请记住，这不会在一段时间内影响经济。如果您作为投资者着眼于长期，并且想持有这些股票几年，那么这可能是更大的机会。在短期内，你可能会看到最初的隆起，然后可能会有一点点变平。</blockquote></p><p> It could take six or nine months before you actually start to see some shovel-ready projects or even some of the architectural and engineering firms starting to lay all of this out. It is a huge undertaking. Long term, it could have a big impact on some of those companies. But again, it takes a while to get going.<b>&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote>可能需要六到九个月的时间，你才会真正开始看到一些现成的项目，甚至一些建筑和工程公司开始布局所有这些。这是一项巨大的事业。从长远来看，这可能会对其中一些公司产生重大影响。但同样，这需要一段时间才能开始。<b> </b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Not Enough Gloom For Gold To Shine?</b>&nbsp;The traditional clash between market fundamentalists and chart technicians came to a head over gold at the skirmish zone of $1,670 an ounce range. Why $1,670? For “technical” traders, that price marks the critical 61.8%&nbsp;Fibonacci retracement&nbsp;level. If this makes no sense to you at all, as it is slightly complex for the uninitiated, just assume that it’s nearing the<i>&nbsp;uncle point</i>&nbsp;where either bulls pile in and prevail (which it appears they did), or they flee, dumping their long positions as bears overrun them.</p><p><blockquote><b>黑暗不足以让金子发光？</b>市场原教旨主义者和图表技术人员之间的传统冲突在每盎司1670美元的冲突区域达到了顶峰。为什么是1670美元？对于“技术”交易者来说，该价格标志着关键的61.8%斐波那契回撤位。如果这对您来说完全没有意义，因为它对于门外汉来说有点复杂，请假设它接近<i>叔叔点</i>要么多头蜂拥而至并获胜（看起来他们做到了），要么他们逃离，在空头占领他们时抛售他们的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> The $1,670 range was tested twice before, in March, with bulls gaining the upper hand each time. But even that wasn’t enough to stem the tide of “risk-on” sentiment, leading to the fundamental vs technical commotion before yesterday’s Consumer Price Index and today’s Producer Price Index reports—both inflationary gauges; and gold, a traditional inflationary hedge. With not enough gloom to glide gold’s flight, will this week’s inflationary readings cause gold to shine or sizzle?</p><p><blockquote>此前曾在3月份两次测试1,670美元区间，每次都是多头占据上风。但即便如此，也不足以阻止“冒险”情绪的浪潮，导致在昨天的消费者价格指数和今天的生产者价格指数报告（两者都是通胀指标）之前基本面与技术面的骚动；以及黄金，一种传统的通胀对冲工具。由于没有足够的阴霾来拖累黄金的飞行，本周的通胀数据会导致黄金发光还是咝咝作响？</blockquote></p><p> TD Ameritrade® commentary for educational purposes only. Member SIPC.</p><p><blockquote>德美利证券®评论仅用于教育目的。成员SIPC。</blockquote></p><p> Image by Alessandro D'Andrea from Pixabay</p><p><blockquote>图片由Alessandro D'Andrea来自Pixabay</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Three-Prong Crucible? Markets Eye Record Highs Amid Inflation, Fiscal, And Delta Uncertainty<blockquote>三叉坩埚？在通胀、财政和三角洲的不确定性中，市场关注历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Three-Prong Crucible? Markets Eye Record Highs Amid Inflation, Fiscal, And Delta Uncertainty<blockquote>三叉坩埚？在通胀、财政和三角洲的不确定性中，市场关注历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-12 22:14</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Yesterday the market got behind the Fed’s idea that inflation is transitory after a calm consumer price index (CPI) reading.</p><p><blockquote>昨天，在消费者价格指数（CPI）数据平静后，市场支持美联储的观点，即通胀是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Will that change today after a sizzling producer price index (PPI) reading? Remember that any gains in PPI can often get reflected in CPI down the road as companies react to higher wholesale prices by passing them along to the consumer. And then there’s the other side of the coin—where companies absorb these prices, which can impact margins. Either way, inflation tends to pack a wallop.</p><p><blockquote>在生产者价格指数（PPI）数据炙手可热之后，今天这种情况会改变吗？请记住，PPI的任何上涨通常都会反映在未来的CPI中，因为企业会通过将批发价格上涨转嫁给消费者来应对批发价格上涨。还有硬币的另一面——公司吸收这些价格，这可能会影响利润率。无论哪种方式，通货膨胀往往会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> Major indices didn’t immediately react much to a July PPI reading of 1%, which was way above the Wall Street analyst consensus of 0.5%. That followed yesterday’s CPI coming in about as expected and well below the June level. The July PPI was equal to June’s, so that kind of takes a bit of the transitory argument away. Also, core PPI, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, was the same as the headline figure, so there’s no hiding behind that.</p><p><blockquote>主要股指没有立即对7月份PPI读数1%做出太大反应，该读数远高于华尔街分析师普遍预期的0.5%。此前，昨天的CPI与预期大致相同，远低于6月份的水平。7月份的生产者价格指数与6月份持平，因此这在某种程度上消除了一些暂时性的论点。此外，剔除波动较大的能源和食品价格的核心生产者价格指数与总体数据相同，因此这背后没有任何隐藏。</blockquote></p><p> The PPI report is just the start of today’s action. Later on,&nbsp;<b>Disney&nbsp;</b>(NYSE:DIS)&nbsp;steps onto center stage&nbsp;with its earnings report. Focus is likely to be on streaming and whether the Delta variant might slow attendance gains at theme parks and movie theaters. It’s likely DIS executives will be asked how the big jump in Florida cases is affecting the Magic Kingdom in Orlando.</p><p><blockquote>PPI报告只是今天行动的开始。后来，<b>迪斯尼</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）凭借其收益报告走上舞台。焦点可能是流媒体以及德尔塔变异毒株是否会减缓主题公园和电影院的上座率增长。DIS高管很可能会被问及佛罗里达州案件的大幅增加如何影响奥兰多的魔法王国。</blockquote></p><p> Weekly jobless claims of 375,000 were more in line with estimates and pretty much down the middle compared with recent numbers. There doesn’t seem to be much improvement going on here, but it’s not getting worse, either. The number probably won’t have much influence today.</p><p><blockquote>每周申请失业救济人数为375,000人，更符合预期，与最近的数字相比几乎处于中间位置。这里似乎没有太大的改善，但也没有变得更糟。这个数字在今天可能不会有太大影响。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, investors are likely to spend their time trying to make sense of these contrasting inflation indicators, which might explain why major indices initially went nowhere in pre-market trading on the PPI reading. Does this strong PPI give the Fed more reason to begin its tapering earlier than expected, or will the Fed wait for another month of data to try and get more clarity? If history means anything, we can probably bet on option two.</p><p><blockquote>相反，投资者可能会花时间试图理解这些截然不同的通胀指标，这或许可以解释为什么主要指数最初在PPI读数的盘前交易中毫无进展。强劲的PPI是否让美联储有更多理由比预期更早开始缩减规模，或者美联储是否会等待另一个月的数据来尝试获得更多清晰度？如果历史有任何意义，我们或许可以赌第二种选择。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Inflationary Showdown Shows Slight Slowdown</h2> Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report told investors mostly what they already knew: overall inflation is running hot. But that’s not what the market was keen to focus on. Instead, investors appeared to be looking at the core CPI, which jumped 4.3% year over year as expected but only 0.3% on a monthly basis—a tad less than the 0.4% analysts estimated.</p><p><blockquote><h2>通胀摊牌略有放缓</h2>周三的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告告诉了投资者大部分他们已经知道的事情：整体通胀正在升温。但这并不是市场热衷于关注的。相反，投资者似乎关注的是核心CPI，该CPI同比上涨4.3%，符合预期，但环比仅上涨0.3%，略低于分析师预期的0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> On top of this, the Fed’s “transitory” narrative suddenly seemed a bit more believable as a slowdown in used car prices likely allayed fears of a monetary sudden-brake shock. Used car prices rose only 0.2% in July, a small bump compared to the prior month’s steep 10% surge.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，美联储的“暂时性”叙述突然变得更加可信，因为二手车价格放缓可能会缓解人们对货币急刹车冲击的担忧。7月份二手车价格仅上涨0.2%，与上个月10%的大幅上涨相比小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> But again, this morning’s PPI seems to be at least a partial counterargument to the transitory view. A single month’s data isn’t a trend, but this is certainly <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> to keep an eye on.</p><p><blockquote>但同样，今天上午的PPI似乎至少是对暂时性观点的部分反驳。单月的数据不是趋势，但这肯定是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>来留意。</blockquote></p><p> Following the CPI report, the&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;</b>($DJI) jumped as much as 200 points, with&nbsp;<b>Caterpillar&nbsp;</b>(NYSE:CAT) and&nbsp;<b>Home Depot</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:HD) leading the index, while 10-year Treasury yields stood mostly flat, and “FAANG” stocks slid into negative territory, with the exception of&nbsp;<b>Apple&nbsp;</b>(NASDAQ:AAPL). Could it be that fears of a “too-laid-back” Fed policy are starting to morph into a “just right” Goldilocks scenario?</p><p><blockquote>继CPI报告之后，<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>($DJI)上涨200点，<b>卡特彼勒</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CAT）和<b>家得宝</b>(NYSE：HD)领涨该指数，而10年期国债收益率基本持平，“FAANG”股票跌至负值区域，但<b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）。对美联储政策“过于宽松”的担忧是否开始演变成“恰到好处”的金发姑娘情景？</blockquote></p><p> Big cyclical sectors like Energy and Financials were already on the upswing this week even before yesterday’s bullish CPI data. Strength in these sectors helped give the blue-chip&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>&nbsp;($DJI) a lift so far over the other major indices.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在昨天看涨的CPI数据公布之前，能源和金融等大型周期性板块本周就已经在上涨。这些行业的走强帮助蓝筹股<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>($DJI)迄今为止的涨幅高于其他主要指数。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Small-Caps Still Scuffling</h2> So where does that leave small-caps, which are often known for their solid performance during economic recoveries? The small-cap&nbsp;<b>Russell 2000 Index</b>&nbsp;(RUT) is still scuffling a bit, pretty much flat so far this month and well below its 2021 highs. It did rise a bit on Wednesday, but again got outpaced by the $DJI. It’s basically still stuck in a volatile 5-month “rut” despite the strong and steady doses of easy-money policy.</p><p><blockquote><h2>小盘股仍在混战</h2>那么，通常以在经济复苏期间表现稳健而闻名的小盘股将何去何从呢？小盘股<b>罗素2000指数</b>(RUT)仍在挣扎，本月迄今为止基本持平，远低于2021年的高点。周三确实上涨了一点，但再次被美元DJI超越。尽管采取了强有力且稳定的宽松货币政策，但它基本上仍然陷入了动荡的5个月“窠臼”。</blockquote></p><p> It might be worth watching to see if RUT can break out of the slow pattern it entered after emerging from its early summer selloff. Which way RUT goes from here might help provide clues about the market as a whole, because RUT can be an early leader up or down.</p><p><blockquote>看看RUT是否能打破初夏抛售后进入的缓慢模式可能值得关注。RUT从这里走向何方可能有助于提供有关整个市场的线索，因为RUT可能是早期上涨或下跌的领导者。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another consideration is where the&nbsp;FAANG stocks&nbsp;go if Treasury yields resume their climb. Remember that earlier this year, rising yields appeared to take a big bite out of the “mega-cap” Tech stocks, with AAPL and<b>&nbsp;Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA) among that hit hardest. It’s fine to say that Financials and Energy can pick up the slack, but that ignores the fact that the FAANGs—like it or not—comprise about 20% of the value of the SPX. That means any significant setbacks for these huge companies could drag the overall index.</p><p><blockquote>另一个考虑因素是，如果美国国债收益率恢复攀升，FAANG股票将何去何从。请记住，今年早些时候，收益率上升似乎对“大型”科技股造成了很大影响，苹果公司和<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）是受打击最严重国家之一。可以说金融和能源可以弥补这一缺口，但这忽略了一个事实，即FAANG——不管你喜欢与否——约占SPX价值的20%。这意味着这些大公司的任何重大挫折都可能拖累整体指数。</blockquote></p><p> Since May, mega-cap Techs have been helping pull up the SPX while some of the other sectors struggle. Analysts are talking about how the rally has less “depth,” meaning it’s more dependent on a few big gorillas to keep it going. While yields aren’t in the kind of territory we saw last spring, it’s worth watching that relationship between yields and FAANGs for clues about where the market goes next.</p><p><blockquote>自5月份以来，大型科技股一直在帮助拉升SPX指数，而其他一些行业却陷入困境。分析师们正在谈论涨势的“深度”如何降低，这意味着它更依赖于几只大猩猩来维持涨势。虽然收益率没有达到我们去年春天看到的水平，但值得关注收益率和FAANG之间的关系，以寻找市场下一步走向的线索。</blockquote></p><p> If inflation growth is actually slowing—and one CPI report isn’t a trend—that could drive optimism that the Fed won’t clamp down right away, perhaps keeping yields from overheating and mega-caps from melting down. Now the PPI report may have people rethinking that. The tug of war continues.</p><p><blockquote>如果通胀增长实际上正在放缓——而一份CPI报告并不是趋势——这可能会激发人们的乐观情绪，即美联储不会立即收紧政策，或许会防止收益率过热和大型股崩溃。现在PPI报告可能会让人们重新思考这一点。拉锯战仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>The Sweet And The Sour Impact Of Washington</h2> Stocks got a nice assist from Congress earlier this week when the Senate passed the infrastructure bill. On the opposite side of the equation, markets seem to be ignoring a debate in Congress over the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen encouraged the parties to find a solution, and for now, the thinking on Wall Street seems to be that there will be one. However, that doesn’t mean a smooth process.</p><p><blockquote><h2>华盛顿的酸甜苦辣影响</h2>本周早些时候，当参议院通过基础设施法案时，股市得到了国会的良好帮助。另一方面，市场似乎忽视了国会关于债务上限的辩论。财政部长珍妮特·耶伦鼓励各方找到解决方案，目前华尔街的想法似乎是会有一个解决方案。然而，这并不意味着一个顺利的过程。</blockquote></p><p> There was eventually a solution in 2011, too, and the U.S. didn’t default on its debt payments. But it did see its credit rating lowered, and stocks took a pounding that summer. We’ll see if Congress can avoid getting to that point this time around. As a reminder, the debt ceiling has been raised numerous times since the 1980s, with both parties voting to do so. The last time was in 2019, under President Trump.</p><p><blockquote>2011年最终也有了解决方案，美国没有拖欠债务。但它的信用评级确实被下调，股市在那年夏天遭受重创。我们将看看国会这次是否能避免走到这一步。提醒一下，自20世纪80年代以来，债务上限已多次提高，两党都投票支持。上一次是在2019年，特朗普总统执政期间。</blockquote></p><p> If the debt ceiling fight starts to ramp up,&nbsp;volatility&nbsp;could eventually return. It’s not really a big factor right now, but don’t be surprised if we see some intraday volatility continue in the coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>如果债务上限之争开始加剧，波动性最终可能会卷土重来。目前这并不是一个很大的因素，但如果我们看到未来几周内继续出现一些日内波动，请不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> You saw the beginnings of that the last couple of weeks, where we’d be up significantly in the morning and sell back off. Or be down significantly in the morning and rally back. We’re probably going to see that pattern continue because besides awaiting the next steps on the infrastructure bill, the market still awaits clarity from the Fed. And even though this bill is exciting, that clarity from the Fed is arguably the big cloud that everything else operates underneath right now as far as the market is concerned.</p><p><blockquote>你看到了过去几周的开始，我们会在早上大幅上涨并抛售。或者早上大幅下跌然后反弹。我们可能会看到这种模式继续下去，因为除了等待基础设施法案的下一步措施外，市场仍在等待美联储的澄清。尽管这项法案令人兴奋，但就市场而言，美联储的明确性可以说是目前其他一切都在其下运行的大乌云。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, yesterday Kansas City Fed President Esther George said it was time for the central bank to begin pulling back its bond-buying program. There’s been similar language from other Fed officials recently. No single person at the Fed sets policy, but at least a few seem to be chomping at the bit, so to speak, to start tapering.</p><p><blockquote>例如，昨天堪萨斯城联储主席埃丝特·乔治表示，央行是时候开始撤回债券购买计划了。最近，其他美联储官员也发表了类似的言论。美联储没有一个人制定政策，但至少有一些人似乎迫不及待地想开始缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://tickertapecdn.tdameritrade.com/assets/images/pages/md/2021-08-12-chart.png\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>CHART OF THE DAY: WHAT’S YOUR 50? Though it’s been a while since the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) suffered a setback, it’s worth noting that mid-month has been tough for it the last few months. That doesn’t mean there’s a selloff ahead, only that you might want to prepare for one if the pattern persists. Assuming things run into trouble, the level to watch is the 50-day moving average (blue line), which currently rests about 3% below the index. That’s pretty much how far things fell in mid-July when the last selloff occurred before the SPX bounced off of that 50-day MA. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>每日图表：你的50岁是多少？尽管标普500指数（SPX-Candlestick）遭受挫折已经有一段时间了，但值得注意的是，过去几个月中旬对其来说一直很艰难。这并不意味着未来会出现抛售，只是如果这种模式持续下去，您可能需要为抛售做好准备。假设事情遇到麻烦，值得关注的水平是50日移动平均线（蓝线），目前该平均线比指数低约3%。这几乎就是7月中旬SPX从50日均线反弹之前的最后一次抛售发生时的跌幅。数据来源：标准普尔道琼斯指数。图表来源：thinkorswim®平台。仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A Tale Of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> Earnings And Reopening:&nbsp;</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA\">Two</a> earnings reports out this week help illustrate how people are still eager to get out of their homes despite Delta variant fears. First,<b>&nbsp;Ebay</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:EBAY) gave some muted Q3 guidance because people don’t want to stay home checking online auctions. Then dating site<b>&nbsp;Bumble</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BMBL) did better than expected, also because people want to get out. This can show us two things. First, there’s still a lot of pent-up demand to get back to normal. Number two, EBAY might give us insight into what to expect from other retailers, especially those who rely a lot on digital, when retail earnings season gets underway in earnest next week.</p><p><blockquote><b>的故事<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">两个</a>收益和重新开业：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA\">两个</a>本周发布的收益报告有助于说明，尽管存在德尔塔变异毒株担忧，人们仍然渴望走出家门。首先，<b>Ebay</b>（纳斯达克：EBAY）给出了一些温和的第三季度指导，因为人们不想呆在家里查看在线拍卖。然后交友网站<b>邦布尔</b>（纳斯达克：BMBL）表现好于预期，也是因为人们想退出。这可以告诉我们两件事。首先，仍有很多被压抑的需求需要恢复正常。第二，当下周零售财报季正式开始时，EBAY可能会让我们深入了解对其他零售商的期望，尤其是那些严重依赖数字的零售商。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Patience Could Be A&nbsp;Virtue With Infrastructure Stocks:&nbsp;</b>Companies like&nbsp;<b>U.S. Steel&nbsp;</b>(NYSE:X),&nbsp;<b>General Electric</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:GE), and&nbsp;<b>Cleveland-Cliffs</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:CLF) all had a nice bump this week on the Senate’s infrastructure bill passage. But remember, this isn’t something that’s going to hit the economy for a while. If you’re looking longer term as an investor and you want to own these stocks for a few years, that’s probably where the bigger opportunity is. In the shorter term, you could see an initial bump, and then maybe a little bit of a flattening out.</p><p><blockquote><b>耐心可能是基础设施股票的一种美德：</b>公司喜欢<b>美国钢铁公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：X），<b>通用电气</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：GE），以及<b>克利夫兰悬崖</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CLF）本周，参议院基础设施法案的通过都取得了不错的进展。但请记住，这不会在一段时间内影响经济。如果您作为投资者着眼于长期，并且想持有这些股票几年，那么这可能是更大的机会。在短期内，你可能会看到最初的隆起，然后可能会有一点点变平。</blockquote></p><p> It could take six or nine months before you actually start to see some shovel-ready projects or even some of the architectural and engineering firms starting to lay all of this out. It is a huge undertaking. Long term, it could have a big impact on some of those companies. But again, it takes a while to get going.<b>&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote>可能需要六到九个月的时间，你才会真正开始看到一些现成的项目，甚至一些建筑和工程公司开始布局所有这些。这是一项巨大的事业。从长远来看，这可能会对其中一些公司产生重大影响。但同样，这需要一段时间才能开始。<b> </b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Not Enough Gloom For Gold To Shine?</b>&nbsp;The traditional clash between market fundamentalists and chart technicians came to a head over gold at the skirmish zone of $1,670 an ounce range. Why $1,670? For “technical” traders, that price marks the critical 61.8%&nbsp;Fibonacci retracement&nbsp;level. If this makes no sense to you at all, as it is slightly complex for the uninitiated, just assume that it’s nearing the<i>&nbsp;uncle point</i>&nbsp;where either bulls pile in and prevail (which it appears they did), or they flee, dumping their long positions as bears overrun them.</p><p><blockquote><b>黑暗不足以让金子发光？</b>市场原教旨主义者和图表技术人员之间的传统冲突在每盎司1670美元的冲突区域达到了顶峰。为什么是1670美元？对于“技术”交易者来说，该价格标志着关键的61.8%斐波那契回撤位。如果这对您来说完全没有意义，因为它对于门外汉来说有点复杂，请假设它接近<i>叔叔点</i>要么多头蜂拥而至并获胜（看起来他们做到了），要么他们逃离，在空头占领他们时抛售他们的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> The $1,670 range was tested twice before, in March, with bulls gaining the upper hand each time. But even that wasn’t enough to stem the tide of “risk-on” sentiment, leading to the fundamental vs technical commotion before yesterday’s Consumer Price Index and today’s Producer Price Index reports—both inflationary gauges; and gold, a traditional inflationary hedge. With not enough gloom to glide gold’s flight, will this week’s inflationary readings cause gold to shine or sizzle?</p><p><blockquote>此前曾在3月份两次测试1,670美元区间，每次都是多头占据上风。但即便如此，也不足以阻止“冒险”情绪的浪潮，导致在昨天的消费者价格指数和今天的生产者价格指数报告（两者都是通胀指标）之前基本面与技术面的骚动；以及黄金，一种传统的通胀对冲工具。由于没有足够的阴霾来拖累黄金的飞行，本周的通胀数据会导致黄金发光还是咝咝作响？</blockquote></p><p> TD Ameritrade® commentary for educational purposes only. Member SIPC.</p><p><blockquote>德美利证券®评论仅用于教育目的。成员SIPC。</blockquote></p><p> Image by Alessandro D'Andrea from Pixabay</p><p><blockquote>图片由Alessandro D'Andrea来自Pixabay</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLF":"克利夫兰克里夫","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","GE":"GE航空航天","TSLA":"特斯拉","EBAY":"eBay","DIS":"迪士尼","CAT":"卡特彼勒","BMBL":"Bumble Inc.","HD":"家得宝","X":"美国钢铁","AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158250170","content_text":"Yesterday the market got behind the Fed’s idea that inflation is transitory after a calm consumer price index (CPI) reading.\nWill that change today after a sizzling producer price index (PPI) reading? Remember that any gains in PPI can often get reflected in CPI down the road as companies react to higher wholesale prices by passing them along to the consumer. And then there’s the other side of the coin—where companies absorb these prices, which can impact margins. Either way, inflation tends to pack a wallop.\nMajor indices didn’t immediately react much to a July PPI reading of 1%, which was way above the Wall Street analyst consensus of 0.5%. That followed yesterday’s CPI coming in about as expected and well below the June level. The July PPI was equal to June’s, so that kind of takes a bit of the transitory argument away. Also, core PPI, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, was the same as the headline figure, so there’s no hiding behind that.\nThe PPI report is just the start of today’s action. Later on, Disney (NYSE:DIS) steps onto center stage with its earnings report. Focus is likely to be on streaming and whether the Delta variant might slow attendance gains at theme parks and movie theaters. It’s likely DIS executives will be asked how the big jump in Florida cases is affecting the Magic Kingdom in Orlando.\nWeekly jobless claims of 375,000 were more in line with estimates and pretty much down the middle compared with recent numbers. There doesn’t seem to be much improvement going on here, but it’s not getting worse, either. The number probably won’t have much influence today.\nInstead, investors are likely to spend their time trying to make sense of these contrasting inflation indicators, which might explain why major indices initially went nowhere in pre-market trading on the PPI reading. Does this strong PPI give the Fed more reason to begin its tapering earlier than expected, or will the Fed wait for another month of data to try and get more clarity? If history means anything, we can probably bet on option two.\nInflationary Showdown Shows Slight Slowdown\nWednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report told investors mostly what they already knew: overall inflation is running hot. But that’s not what the market was keen to focus on. Instead, investors appeared to be looking at the core CPI, which jumped 4.3% year over year as expected but only 0.3% on a monthly basis—a tad less than the 0.4% analysts estimated.\nOn top of this, the Fed’s “transitory” narrative suddenly seemed a bit more believable as a slowdown in used car prices likely allayed fears of a monetary sudden-brake shock. Used car prices rose only 0.2% in July, a small bump compared to the prior month’s steep 10% surge.\nBut again, this morning’s PPI seems to be at least a partial counterargument to the transitory view. A single month’s data isn’t a trend, but this is certainly one to keep an eye on.\nFollowing the CPI report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) jumped as much as 200 points, with Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD) leading the index, while 10-year Treasury yields stood mostly flat, and “FAANG” stocks slid into negative territory, with the exception of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). Could it be that fears of a “too-laid-back” Fed policy are starting to morph into a “just right” Goldilocks scenario?\nBig cyclical sectors like Energy and Financials were already on the upswing this week even before yesterday’s bullish CPI data. Strength in these sectors helped give the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) a lift so far over the other major indices.\nSmall-Caps Still Scuffling\nSo where does that leave small-caps, which are often known for their solid performance during economic recoveries? The small-cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT) is still scuffling a bit, pretty much flat so far this month and well below its 2021 highs. It did rise a bit on Wednesday, but again got outpaced by the $DJI. It’s basically still stuck in a volatile 5-month “rut” despite the strong and steady doses of easy-money policy.\nIt might be worth watching to see if RUT can break out of the slow pattern it entered after emerging from its early summer selloff. Which way RUT goes from here might help provide clues about the market as a whole, because RUT can be an early leader up or down.\nAnother consideration is where the FAANG stocks go if Treasury yields resume their climb. Remember that earlier this year, rising yields appeared to take a big bite out of the “mega-cap” Tech stocks, with AAPL and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) among that hit hardest. It’s fine to say that Financials and Energy can pick up the slack, but that ignores the fact that the FAANGs—like it or not—comprise about 20% of the value of the SPX. That means any significant setbacks for these huge companies could drag the overall index.\nSince May, mega-cap Techs have been helping pull up the SPX while some of the other sectors struggle. Analysts are talking about how the rally has less “depth,” meaning it’s more dependent on a few big gorillas to keep it going. While yields aren’t in the kind of territory we saw last spring, it’s worth watching that relationship between yields and FAANGs for clues about where the market goes next.\nIf inflation growth is actually slowing—and one CPI report isn’t a trend—that could drive optimism that the Fed won’t clamp down right away, perhaps keeping yields from overheating and mega-caps from melting down. Now the PPI report may have people rethinking that. The tug of war continues.\nThe Sweet And The Sour Impact Of Washington\nStocks got a nice assist from Congress earlier this week when the Senate passed the infrastructure bill. On the opposite side of the equation, markets seem to be ignoring a debate in Congress over the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen encouraged the parties to find a solution, and for now, the thinking on Wall Street seems to be that there will be one. However, that doesn’t mean a smooth process.\nThere was eventually a solution in 2011, too, and the U.S. didn’t default on its debt payments. But it did see its credit rating lowered, and stocks took a pounding that summer. We’ll see if Congress can avoid getting to that point this time around. As a reminder, the debt ceiling has been raised numerous times since the 1980s, with both parties voting to do so. The last time was in 2019, under President Trump.\nIf the debt ceiling fight starts to ramp up, volatility could eventually return. It’s not really a big factor right now, but don’t be surprised if we see some intraday volatility continue in the coming weeks.\nYou saw the beginnings of that the last couple of weeks, where we’d be up significantly in the morning and sell back off. Or be down significantly in the morning and rally back. We’re probably going to see that pattern continue because besides awaiting the next steps on the infrastructure bill, the market still awaits clarity from the Fed. And even though this bill is exciting, that clarity from the Fed is arguably the big cloud that everything else operates underneath right now as far as the market is concerned.\nFor instance, yesterday Kansas City Fed President Esther George said it was time for the central bank to begin pulling back its bond-buying program. There’s been similar language from other Fed officials recently. No single person at the Fed sets policy, but at least a few seem to be chomping at the bit, so to speak, to start tapering.\nCHART OF THE DAY: WHAT’S YOUR 50? Though it’s been a while since the S&P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) suffered a setback, it’s worth noting that mid-month has been tough for it the last few months. That doesn’t mean there’s a selloff ahead, only that you might want to prepare for one if the pattern persists. Assuming things run into trouble, the level to watch is the 50-day moving average (blue line), which currently rests about 3% below the index. That’s pretty much how far things fell in mid-July when the last selloff occurred before the SPX bounced off of that 50-day MA. Data Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.\nA Tale Of Two Earnings And Reopening: Two earnings reports out this week help illustrate how people are still eager to get out of their homes despite Delta variant fears. First, Ebay (NASDAQ:EBAY) gave some muted Q3 guidance because people don’t want to stay home checking online auctions. Then dating site Bumble (NASDAQ:BMBL) did better than expected, also because people want to get out. This can show us two things. First, there’s still a lot of pent-up demand to get back to normal. Number two, EBAY might give us insight into what to expect from other retailers, especially those who rely a lot on digital, when retail earnings season gets underway in earnest next week.\nPatience Could Be A Virtue With Infrastructure Stocks: Companies like U.S. Steel (NYSE:X), General Electric (NYSE:GE), and Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) all had a nice bump this week on the Senate’s infrastructure bill passage. But remember, this isn’t something that’s going to hit the economy for a while. If you’re looking longer term as an investor and you want to own these stocks for a few years, that’s probably where the bigger opportunity is. In the shorter term, you could see an initial bump, and then maybe a little bit of a flattening out.\nIt could take six or nine months before you actually start to see some shovel-ready projects or even some of the architectural and engineering firms starting to lay all of this out. It is a huge undertaking. Long term, it could have a big impact on some of those companies. But again, it takes a while to get going. \nNot Enough Gloom For Gold To Shine? The traditional clash between market fundamentalists and chart technicians came to a head over gold at the skirmish zone of $1,670 an ounce range. Why $1,670? For “technical” traders, that price marks the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If this makes no sense to you at all, as it is slightly complex for the uninitiated, just assume that it’s nearing the uncle point where either bulls pile in and prevail (which it appears they did), or they flee, dumping their long positions as bears overrun them.\nThe $1,670 range was tested twice before, in March, with bulls gaining the upper hand each time. But even that wasn’t enough to stem the tide of “risk-on” sentiment, leading to the fundamental vs technical commotion before yesterday’s Consumer Price Index and today’s Producer Price Index reports—both inflationary gauges; and gold, a traditional inflationary hedge. With not enough gloom to glide gold’s flight, will this week’s inflationary readings cause gold to shine or sizzle?\nTD Ameritrade® commentary for educational purposes only. Member SIPC.\nImage by Alessandro D'Andrea from Pixabay","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"X":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"GE":0.9,"CLF":0.9,"HD":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"EBAY":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"CAT":0.9,"BMBL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803175292,"gmtCreate":1627430022916,"gmtModify":1633765140179,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573712211428139","authorIdStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice and thanks for sharing. Pls like&nbsp;","listText":"Nice and thanks for sharing. Pls like&nbsp;","text":"Nice and thanks for sharing. Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803175292","repostId":"2154991792","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881903250,"gmtCreate":1631283563470,"gmtModify":1631889558454,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573712211428139","authorIdStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice to buy ?","listText":"Nice to buy ?","text":"Nice to buy ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881903250","repostId":"1157873396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157873396","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631283021,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157873396?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 22:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"RLX Technology fell 9% in early trading<blockquote>RLX科技早盘跌9%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157873396","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 10) RLX Technology fell 9% in early trading.","content":"<p>(Sept 10)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a> fell 9% in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>（9月10日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX科技</a>早盘跌9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0f0f2d7b2efab26b1281bb1299d085\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRLX Technology fell 9% in early trading<blockquote>RLX科技早盘跌9%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-10 22:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 10)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a> fell 9% in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>（9月10日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX科技</a>早盘跌9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0f0f2d7b2efab26b1281bb1299d085\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157873396","content_text":"(Sept 10) RLX Technology fell 9% in early trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839332536,"gmtCreate":1629121752625,"gmtModify":1633687253699,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573712211428139","authorIdStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839332536","repostId":"2159248377","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893458928,"gmtCreate":1628297086064,"gmtModify":1633751919359,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573712211428139","authorIdStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noted and thanks for sharing and pls like&nbsp;","listText":"Noted and thanks for sharing and pls like&nbsp;","text":"Noted and thanks for sharing and pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893458928","repostId":"1143051031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899685300,"gmtCreate":1628178344800,"gmtModify":1633752862455,"author":{"id":"3573712211428139","authorId":"3573712211428139","name":"Chunfai92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235fe50749f61f8b58ef9c95dc2bddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573712211428139","authorIdStr":"3573712211428139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls ;)","listText":"Like pls ;)","text":"Like pls ;)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899685300","repostId":"1173170520","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}