SHAJ的个人主页 - 老虎社区

SHAJ

SHAJ

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

20关注

6粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-09-27

U need satellites for that?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-27

Good headline.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-27

Goodbye Fashbook.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-27

The age of shedding responsibility.

Tesla's 'Beta Button' Is Live. What It Means for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的“测试版按钮”上线了。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>

2021-08-06

Hang in there.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-30

Pinterest is boring

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-29

Getting unpopular

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-29

Dump pp, too many complaints.

PayPal Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>PayPal盈利超出预期。为什么其股价下跌。</blockquote>

2021-07-28

Bye-bye facebook

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-28

Inari. Promising

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-28

Time to try cheap coffee.

Starbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么其股价下跌。</blockquote>

2021-07-27

Yet to try.

Snap Stock: One Of Fastest Growing Social Media Companies<blockquote>Snap股票：增长最快的社交媒体公司之一</blockquote>

2021-07-27

Moral actions will cause upheaval only in the short term.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-26

Whose selling

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-26

Greed foot in the door

Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote>

2021-07-26

Wat NASA do then?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-25

Can't stand video games

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-25

Prolly cos of greedy tutors taking advantage of tiger parents

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-25

Yes

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-23

Bec tutoring is causing a lot of pain, like doctors fees

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3573708491598785","uuid":"3573708491598785","gmtCreate":1614231830053,"gmtModify":1625928353460,"name":"SHAJ","pinyin":"shaj","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":6,"headSize":20,"tweetSize":46,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.08.19","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":1,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":866302863,"gmtCreate":1632730874352,"gmtModify":1632798248490,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"U need satellites for that?","listText":"U need satellites for that?","text":"U need satellites for that?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866302863","repostId":"1122691301","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866306594,"gmtCreate":1632730824918,"gmtModify":1632798249343,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good headline.","listText":"Good headline.","text":"Good headline.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866306594","repostId":"1147152921","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866301856,"gmtCreate":1632730714575,"gmtModify":1632798251399,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Goodbye Fashbook.","listText":"Goodbye Fashbook.","text":"Goodbye Fashbook.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866301856","repostId":"1180956658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866303379,"gmtCreate":1632730676391,"gmtModify":1632798252125,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The age of shedding responsibility.","listText":"The age of shedding responsibility.","text":"The age of shedding responsibility.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866303379","repostId":"1128485442","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128485442","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632729714,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1128485442?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 16:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's 'Beta Button' Is Live. What It Means for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的“测试版按钮”上线了。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128485442","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla delivered its “beta button” Friday, bringing the next level of autonomous driving to its car o","content":"<p>Tesla delivered its “beta button” Friday, bringing the next level of autonomous driving to its car owners. Regulators aren’t happy.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周五发布了 “测试版”按钮，为车主带来了新的自动驾驶体验。监管机构并不高兴。</blockquote></p><p> With the “beta button,” Tesla (ticker: TSLA) owners can now request the most sophisticated version of Tesla’s autonomous-driving software, dubbed Full Self Driving, or FSD, with the press of a finger. The button went live on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>有了 “测试版按钮 ”，特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）车主现在只需按一下手指，就可以请求特斯拉最先进版本的自动驾驶软件，即全自动驾驶（FSD）。该按钮于周五上线。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s new system will do things such as make left turns for the driver. Tesla has let some drivers test the system before now. Many videos from testers that review the capabilities—and issues—with the system are available on YouTube. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的新系统将为驾驶员做左转等事情。特斯拉已经让一些司机测试了该系统。YouTube 上有许多来自测试人员的视频，回顾了该系统的功能和问题。</blockquote></p><p> Just hitting the button isn’t all Tesla drivers have to do. The button doesn’t grant access to the new version automatically. Tesla judges driving behavior for a week before the upgrade is activated.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉车手们要做的不仅仅是按下按钮。该按钮不会自动授予对新版本的访问权限。在激活升级之前，特斯拉会对驾驶行为进行一周的判断。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators have expressed nervousness about the launch and calling a safety feature a “beta” version. But beyond that, nothing much has happened. Investors can expect more to happen in coming weeks, including videos, tweets, and stories about Tesla’s full self-driving software and what regulators are thinking about it.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构对此次发布表示紧张，并称安全功能为 “测试版 ”。但除此之外，没有发生太多事情。投资者可以期待未来几周发生更多事情，包括有关特斯拉全自动驾驶软件的视频、推文和故事，以及监管机构对该软件的看法。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla hasn’t responded to multiple requests for comment about FSD, but the company has said in many public forums that it believes FSD software makes its vehicles safer to drive.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉尚未回应有关 FSD 的多次置评请求，但该公司在许多公共论坛上表示，它相信 FSD 软件能让其车辆驾驶更安全。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla FSD is a so-called Level 2 autonomous-driving system. Level 2 means drivers need to watch the road at all times. The new version is the same kind of system. It makes driving easier and more convenient, but there are no systems that allow drivers to stop paying attention to driving altogether. That’s what Tesla, and the rest of the auto industry, wants to achieve years down the road.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉FSD是所谓的2级自动驾驶系统。2级意味着驾驶员需要时刻观察道路。新版本是同一种系统。它让驾驶变得更容易、更方便，但没有任何系统可以让驾驶员完全停止关注驾驶。这就是特斯拉和汽车行业其他公司希望在未来几年实现的目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock, for its part, is at its highest level in months. Shares closed up 2.8% at $774.49 on Friday, and are now up about 10% in 2021, trailing just behind comparable gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average. But all those gains have come recently. Tesla stock is up 15% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价则处于几个月来的最高水平。周五股价收盘上涨 2.8%，至 774.49 美元，目前 2021 年上涨约 10%，仅落后于标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数的可比涨幅。但所有这些收益都是最近才出现的。过去三个月，特斯拉股价上涨了 15%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's 'Beta Button' Is Live. What It Means for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的“测试版按钮”上线了。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's 'Beta Button' Is Live. What It Means for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的“测试版按钮”上线了。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 16:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla delivered its “beta button” Friday, bringing the next level of autonomous driving to its car owners. Regulators aren’t happy.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周五发布了 “测试版”按钮，为车主带来了新的自动驾驶体验。监管机构并不高兴。</blockquote></p><p> With the “beta button,” Tesla (ticker: TSLA) owners can now request the most sophisticated version of Tesla’s autonomous-driving software, dubbed Full Self Driving, or FSD, with the press of a finger. The button went live on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>有了 “测试版按钮 ”，特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）车主现在只需按一下手指，就可以请求特斯拉最先进版本的自动驾驶软件，即全自动驾驶（FSD）。该按钮于周五上线。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s new system will do things such as make left turns for the driver. Tesla has let some drivers test the system before now. Many videos from testers that review the capabilities—and issues—with the system are available on YouTube. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的新系统将为驾驶员做左转等事情。特斯拉已经让一些司机测试了该系统。YouTube 上有许多来自测试人员的视频，回顾了该系统的功能和问题。</blockquote></p><p> Just hitting the button isn’t all Tesla drivers have to do. The button doesn’t grant access to the new version automatically. Tesla judges driving behavior for a week before the upgrade is activated.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉车手们要做的不仅仅是按下按钮。该按钮不会自动授予对新版本的访问权限。在激活升级之前，特斯拉会对驾驶行为进行一周的判断。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators have expressed nervousness about the launch and calling a safety feature a “beta” version. But beyond that, nothing much has happened. Investors can expect more to happen in coming weeks, including videos, tweets, and stories about Tesla’s full self-driving software and what regulators are thinking about it.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构对此次发布表示紧张，并称安全功能为 “测试版 ”。但除此之外，没有发生太多事情。投资者可以期待未来几周发生更多事情，包括有关特斯拉全自动驾驶软件的视频、推文和故事，以及监管机构对该软件的看法。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla hasn’t responded to multiple requests for comment about FSD, but the company has said in many public forums that it believes FSD software makes its vehicles safer to drive.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉尚未回应有关 FSD 的多次置评请求，但该公司在许多公共论坛上表示，它相信 FSD 软件能让其车辆驾驶更安全。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla FSD is a so-called Level 2 autonomous-driving system. Level 2 means drivers need to watch the road at all times. The new version is the same kind of system. It makes driving easier and more convenient, but there are no systems that allow drivers to stop paying attention to driving altogether. That’s what Tesla, and the rest of the auto industry, wants to achieve years down the road.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉FSD是所谓的2级自动驾驶系统。2级意味着驾驶员需要时刻观察道路。新版本是同一种系统。它让驾驶变得更容易、更方便，但没有任何系统可以让驾驶员完全停止关注驾驶。这就是特斯拉和汽车行业其他公司希望在未来几年实现的目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock, for its part, is at its highest level in months. Shares closed up 2.8% at $774.49 on Friday, and are now up about 10% in 2021, trailing just behind comparable gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average. But all those gains have come recently. Tesla stock is up 15% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价则处于几个月来的最高水平。周五股价收盘上涨 2.8%，至 774.49 美元，目前 2021 年上涨约 10%，仅落后于标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数的可比涨幅。但所有这些收益都是最近才出现的。过去三个月，特斯拉股价上涨了 15%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-autonomous-driving-beta-button-51632583470?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-autonomous-driving-beta-button-51632583470?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128485442","content_text":"Tesla delivered its “beta button” Friday, bringing the next level of autonomous driving to its car owners. Regulators aren’t happy.\nWith the “beta button,” Tesla (ticker: TSLA) owners can now request the most sophisticated version of Tesla’s autonomous-driving software, dubbed Full Self Driving, or FSD, with the press of a finger. The button went live on Friday.\n\nTesla’s new system will do things such as make left turns for the driver. Tesla has let some drivers test the system before now. Many videos from testers that review the capabilities—and issues—with the system are available on YouTube. \n\nJust hitting the button isn’t all Tesla drivers have to do. The button doesn’t grant access to the new version automatically. Tesla judges driving behavior for a week before the upgrade is activated.\n\nRegulators have expressed nervousness about the launch and calling a safety feature a “beta” version. But beyond that, nothing much has happened. Investors can expect more to happen in coming weeks, including videos, tweets, and stories about Tesla’s full self-driving software and what regulators are thinking about it.\nTesla hasn’t responded to multiple requests for comment about FSD, but the company has said in many public forums that it believes FSD software makes its vehicles safer to drive.\nTesla FSD is a so-called Level 2 autonomous-driving system. Level 2 means drivers need to watch the road at all times. The new version is the same kind of system. It makes driving easier and more convenient, but there are no systems that allow drivers to stop paying attention to driving altogether. That’s what Tesla, and the rest of the auto industry, wants to achieve years down the road.\n\nTesla stock, for its part, is at its highest level in months. Shares closed up 2.8% at $774.49 on Friday, and are now up about 10% in 2021, trailing just behind comparable gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. But all those gains have come recently. Tesla stock is up 15% over the past three months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":893120118,"gmtCreate":1628248037534,"gmtModify":1633752272974,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hang in there.","listText":"Hang in there.","text":"Hang in there.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893120118","repostId":"1135651416","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808707477,"gmtCreate":1627609026299,"gmtModify":1633757823230,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pinterest is boring","listText":"Pinterest is boring","text":"Pinterest is boring","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808707477","repostId":"1154593458","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808365315,"gmtCreate":1627558469737,"gmtModify":1633763826892,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Getting unpopular","listText":"Getting unpopular","text":"Getting unpopular","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808365315","repostId":"1160646302","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808362372,"gmtCreate":1627558392596,"gmtModify":1633763827540,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Dump pp, too many complaints.","listText":"Dump pp, too many complaints.","text":"Dump pp, too many complaints.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808362372","repostId":"1157796712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157796712","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627546052,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1157796712?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 16:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>PayPal盈利超出预期。为什么其股价下跌。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157796712","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"PayPal stock tumbled nearly 5% after the payments company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts but","content":"<p>PayPal stock tumbled&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;5%&nbsp;after the payments company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts but offered below-consensus guidance.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal股价暴跌近 5%，此前这家支付公司第二季度盈利超出预期，但提供的指引低于市场共识。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f8c2f03bbb34acf38cda8e22bd97803\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"641\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal reported an adjusted profit of $1.15 a share, beating forecasts for $1.13 on sales of $6.24 billion, missing analyst estimates for $6.27 billion. PayPal also said it would earn $1.07 a share in the third quarter, below estimates for $1.14, while sales guidance of $6.15 to $6.25 billion came in shy of expectations for $6.43</p><p><blockquote>PayPal公布调整后每股利润为 1.15 美元，超出预期的 1.13 美元，销售额为 62.4 亿美元，低于分析师预期的 62.7 亿美元。PayPal还表示，第三季度每股收益将为 1.07 美元，低于预期的 1.14 美元，而销售指引为 6.1.5 亿美元至 62.5 亿美元，低于预期的 6.43 美元</blockquote></p><p> “3Q outlook will drive the narrative, with revenues guided ~3.5% below Street ests. and EPS ~6% below,” writes Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师特雷弗-威廉姆斯（Trevor Williams）写道：“第三季度的前景将推动这一说法，预计收入将比华尔街预期低约 3.5%。每股收益将低约 6%。”</blockquote></p><p> PayPal highlighted the impact of&nbsp;eBay‘s transition to a “managed payments” system as one source of slower growth. TPV growth was 40% with eBay, 48% without out, while sales grew at a 32% clip without eBay versus 19% with.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal强调了 eBay 向 “托管支付 ”系统过渡的影响，认为这是增长放缓的原因之一。冠捷在 eBay 的情况下增长了 40%，在没有 eBay 的情况下增长了 48%，而在没有 eBay 的情况下，销售额增长了 32%，而在没有 eBay 的情况下增长了 19%。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re now absorbing more pressure from eBay than we had previously expected,” CFO John Rainey said on a call with analysts. He added that the company is “planning for eBay’s drag on our revenue growth to be greater than previously expected. The drag will amount to 8.5 percentage points of growth on third quarter revenue, shaving off $465 million and taking revenue to an estimated $6.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>“首席财务官 John Rainey 在与分析师的看涨期权上说：”我们现在从 eBay 吸收的压力比我们之前预期的要大。他补充说，公司 “计划让 eBay 对我们收入增长的拖累大于之前的预期。第三季度收入将增长 8.5 个百分点，减少 4.65 亿美元，收入估计达到 62 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities’ Dan Dolev urged investors to take the longer view. While it’s true that the “Covid honeymoon may be over,” he wrote, referring to PayPal’s phenomenal growth in 2020, he highlighted several positives in the earnings report, including stronger engagement with PayPal’s core apps and momentum in new initiatives like “buy now pay later,” which saw 49% quarterly volume growth in transactions.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券的丹-多列夫（Dan Dolev）敦促投资者从长远来看。他在谈到PayPal 2020 年的惊人增长时写道，虽然 “Covid 蜜月期可能已经结束”，但他在财报中强调了几个积极因素，包括与PayPal核心应用程序的互动加强，以及 “先买后付 ”等新举措的势头，季度交易量增长了 49%。</blockquote></p><p> He also points out that PayPal’s boosted its total payment volume guidance from 30% to 33%-35% in the third quarter, 10 points higher than prepandemic levels. “This suggests strong e-commerce trends and PYPL’s share gains are here to stay,” he wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>他还指出，PayPal在第三季度将支付总量指导从 30% 提高到 33%-35%，比大流行前的水平高出 10 个百分点。“他在一份说明中写道：”这表明电子商务趋势强劲，PYPL 的股价涨幅将持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> But expectations for the stock may be tough to meet at this juncture, and there were signs of pressure that may be building.</p><p><blockquote>但目前对该股的预期可能很难达到，而且有迹象表明压力可能正在增加。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal, for instance, reported that it’s continuing to see weakness in the “take rate” it charges merchants, referring to the payments they make to PayPal for its services. The rate fell from 2.21% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2.11% in the first quarter and 2.01% in the second quarter. PayPal attributed the decline to lower eBay volumes and declines in foreign exchange fees, but it may also indicate that PayPal is facing more competitive pricing pressure.</p><p><blockquote>例如，PayPal报告称，该公司向商家收取的 “收费 ”继续疲软，指的是商家向PayPal支付的服务费。该比率从2020年第四季度的2.21%下降至第一季度的2.11%和第二季度的2.01%。PayPal将下降归因于 eBay 交易量下降和外汇费用下降，但这也可能表明PayPal面临着更具竞争力的定价压力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>PayPal盈利超出预期。为什么其股价下跌。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>PayPal盈利超出预期。为什么其股价下跌。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-29 16:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>PayPal stock tumbled&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;5%&nbsp;after the payments company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts but offered below-consensus guidance.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal股价暴跌近 5%，此前这家支付公司第二季度盈利超出预期，但提供的指引低于市场共识。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f8c2f03bbb34acf38cda8e22bd97803\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"641\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal reported an adjusted profit of $1.15 a share, beating forecasts for $1.13 on sales of $6.24 billion, missing analyst estimates for $6.27 billion. PayPal also said it would earn $1.07 a share in the third quarter, below estimates for $1.14, while sales guidance of $6.15 to $6.25 billion came in shy of expectations for $6.43</p><p><blockquote>PayPal公布调整后每股利润为 1.15 美元，超出预期的 1.13 美元，销售额为 62.4 亿美元，低于分析师预期的 62.7 亿美元。PayPal还表示，第三季度每股收益将为 1.07 美元，低于预期的 1.14 美元，而销售指引为 6.1.5 亿美元至 62.5 亿美元，低于预期的 6.43 美元</blockquote></p><p> “3Q outlook will drive the narrative, with revenues guided ~3.5% below Street ests. and EPS ~6% below,” writes Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师特雷弗-威廉姆斯（Trevor Williams）写道：“第三季度的前景将推动这一说法，预计收入将比华尔街预期低约 3.5%。每股收益将低约 6%。”</blockquote></p><p> PayPal highlighted the impact of&nbsp;eBay‘s transition to a “managed payments” system as one source of slower growth. TPV growth was 40% with eBay, 48% without out, while sales grew at a 32% clip without eBay versus 19% with.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal强调了 eBay 向 “托管支付 ”系统过渡的影响，认为这是增长放缓的原因之一。冠捷在 eBay 的情况下增长了 40%，在没有 eBay 的情况下增长了 48%，而在没有 eBay 的情况下，销售额增长了 32%，而在没有 eBay 的情况下增长了 19%。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re now absorbing more pressure from eBay than we had previously expected,” CFO John Rainey said on a call with analysts. He added that the company is “planning for eBay’s drag on our revenue growth to be greater than previously expected. The drag will amount to 8.5 percentage points of growth on third quarter revenue, shaving off $465 million and taking revenue to an estimated $6.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>“首席财务官 John Rainey 在与分析师的看涨期权上说：”我们现在从 eBay 吸收的压力比我们之前预期的要大。他补充说，公司 “计划让 eBay 对我们收入增长的拖累大于之前的预期。第三季度收入将增长 8.5 个百分点，减少 4.65 亿美元，收入估计达到 62 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities’ Dan Dolev urged investors to take the longer view. While it’s true that the “Covid honeymoon may be over,” he wrote, referring to PayPal’s phenomenal growth in 2020, he highlighted several positives in the earnings report, including stronger engagement with PayPal’s core apps and momentum in new initiatives like “buy now pay later,” which saw 49% quarterly volume growth in transactions.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券的丹-多列夫（Dan Dolev）敦促投资者从长远来看。他在谈到PayPal 2020 年的惊人增长时写道，虽然 “Covid 蜜月期可能已经结束”，但他在财报中强调了几个积极因素，包括与PayPal核心应用程序的互动加强，以及 “先买后付 ”等新举措的势头，季度交易量增长了 49%。</blockquote></p><p> He also points out that PayPal’s boosted its total payment volume guidance from 30% to 33%-35% in the third quarter, 10 points higher than prepandemic levels. “This suggests strong e-commerce trends and PYPL’s share gains are here to stay,” he wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>他还指出，PayPal在第三季度将支付总量指导从 30% 提高到 33%-35%，比大流行前的水平高出 10 个百分点。“他在一份说明中写道：”这表明电子商务趋势强劲，PYPL 的股价涨幅将持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> But expectations for the stock may be tough to meet at this juncture, and there were signs of pressure that may be building.</p><p><blockquote>但目前对该股的预期可能很难达到，而且有迹象表明压力可能正在增加。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal, for instance, reported that it’s continuing to see weakness in the “take rate” it charges merchants, referring to the payments they make to PayPal for its services. The rate fell from 2.21% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2.11% in the first quarter and 2.01% in the second quarter. PayPal attributed the decline to lower eBay volumes and declines in foreign exchange fees, but it may also indicate that PayPal is facing more competitive pricing pressure.</p><p><blockquote>例如，PayPal报告称，该公司向商家收取的 “收费 ”继续疲软，指的是商家向PayPal支付的服务费。该比率从2020年第四季度的2.21%下降至第一季度的2.11%和第二季度的2.01%。PayPal将下降归因于 eBay 交易量下降和外汇费用下降，但这也可能表明PayPal面临着更具竞争力的定价压力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157796712","content_text":"PayPal stock tumbled nearly 5% after the payments company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts but offered below-consensus guidance.\n\nPayPal reported an adjusted profit of $1.15 a share, beating forecasts for $1.13 on sales of $6.24 billion, missing analyst estimates for $6.27 billion. PayPal also said it would earn $1.07 a share in the third quarter, below estimates for $1.14, while sales guidance of $6.15 to $6.25 billion came in shy of expectations for $6.43\n“3Q outlook will drive the narrative, with revenues guided ~3.5% below Street ests. and EPS ~6% below,” writes Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams.\nPayPal highlighted the impact of eBay‘s transition to a “managed payments” system as one source of slower growth. TPV growth was 40% with eBay, 48% without out, while sales grew at a 32% clip without eBay versus 19% with.\n“We’re now absorbing more pressure from eBay than we had previously expected,” CFO John Rainey said on a call with analysts. He added that the company is “planning for eBay’s drag on our revenue growth to be greater than previously expected. The drag will amount to 8.5 percentage points of growth on third quarter revenue, shaving off $465 million and taking revenue to an estimated $6.2 billion.\nMizuho Securities’ Dan Dolev urged investors to take the longer view. While it’s true that the “Covid honeymoon may be over,” he wrote, referring to PayPal’s phenomenal growth in 2020, he highlighted several positives in the earnings report, including stronger engagement with PayPal’s core apps and momentum in new initiatives like “buy now pay later,” which saw 49% quarterly volume growth in transactions.\nHe also points out that PayPal’s boosted its total payment volume guidance from 30% to 33%-35% in the third quarter, 10 points higher than prepandemic levels. “This suggests strong e-commerce trends and PYPL’s share gains are here to stay,” he wrote in a note.\nBut expectations for the stock may be tough to meet at this juncture, and there were signs of pressure that may be building.\nPayPal, for instance, reported that it’s continuing to see weakness in the “take rate” it charges merchants, referring to the payments they make to PayPal for its services. The rate fell from 2.21% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2.11% in the first quarter and 2.01% in the second quarter. PayPal attributed the decline to lower eBay volumes and declines in foreign exchange fees, but it may also indicate that PayPal is facing more competitive pricing pressure.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801100375,"gmtCreate":1627485514497,"gmtModify":1633764520751,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bye-bye facebook","listText":"Bye-bye facebook","text":"Bye-bye facebook","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801100375","repostId":"1179923360","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801372498,"gmtCreate":1627485335714,"gmtModify":1633764523387,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Inari. Promising","listText":"Inari. Promising","text":"Inari. Promising","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801372498","repostId":"2154236859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801376343,"gmtCreate":1627485247982,"gmtModify":1631885102675,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to try cheap coffee.","listText":"Time to try cheap coffee.","text":"Time to try cheap coffee.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801376343","repostId":"1112939298","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112939298","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627484367,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112939298?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 22:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么其股价下跌。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112939298","media":"Barrons","summary":"Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s clo","content":"<p>Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>尽管星巴克在周二收盘后公布的财报好于预期，但其股价仍在下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks&nbsp;reported non-GAAP per-share earnings of $1.01 on $7.5 billion in revenue, a record. Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $0.77 on $7.3 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克公布的非 GAAP 每股收益为 1.01 美元，营收为 75 亿美元，创下历史新高。分析师预测每股收益为 0.77 美元，营收为 73 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Despite beating consensus revenue and earnings targets, Starbucks stock is down 3%, to $122.30.</p><p><blockquote>尽管超出了普遍的收入和盈利目标，星巴克股价仍下跌 3%，至 122.30 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Driven by an 84% increase in same-store sales in America, the global coffee giant reported an overall increase in comparable-store sales of 73% relative to the third quarter last year. Indeed, brand loyalty remains strong, especially in the U.S. where 90-day active&nbsp;members of the Starbucks Rewards loyalty program&nbsp;increased 48% year-over-year and now account for 51% of all spending in U.S. stores–up 8% from pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote>在美国同店销售额增长 84% 的推动下，这家全球咖啡巨头报告称，与去年第三季度相比，同店销售额整体增长了 73%。事实上，品牌忠诚度依然强劲，尤其是在美国，星巴克奖励忠诚度计划的 90 天活跃会员同比增长 48%，目前占美国门店所有支出的 51%，比大流行前的水平增长了 8%。</blockquote></p><p> In a statement, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson told investors “Starbucks delivered record performance in the third quarter, demonstrating powerful momentum beyond recovery. Our ability to move with speed and agility and to be out in front of shifting customer behaviors has helped further differentiate Starbucks, positioning us well for this moment.”</p><p><blockquote>星巴克首席执行官凯文-约翰逊（Kevin Johnson）在一份声明中告诉投资者：“星巴克在第三季度取得了创纪录的业绩，展现出了复苏之外的强劲势头。我们能够快速灵活地行动，并在不断变化的顾客行为面前保持领先地位，这有助于星巴克进一步脱颖而出，使我们在这一时刻处于有利地位。”</blockquote></p><p> The strong results have prompted management to raise the company’s 2021 earnings per share outlook from $2.90-$3.00 to $3.20-$3.25.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的业绩促使管理层将公司 2021 年的每股收益预期从 2.90-3.00 美元上调至 3.20-3.25 美元。</blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call, analysts were keen to hear about management’s outlook on China, as they expressed concerns about consumer pushback against U.S. brands in the region. However, Johnson was quick to dispel the concerns, commenting that there hasn’t been a&nbsp;geopolitical event in China&nbsp;that has impacted them in the past couple of years, and he doesn’t foresee that happening as long as they continue taking care of their partners and customers.</p><p><blockquote>在财报看涨期权上，分析师们渴望听到管理层对中国的展望，因为他们对消费者在该地区抵制美国品牌表示担忧。不过，约翰逊很快打消了人们的担忧，他评论说，在过去几年里，中国没有发生过对他们产生影响的地缘政治事件，只要他们继续照顾好自己的合作伙伴和客户，他预计这种情况就不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> While fears about&nbsp;rising labor costs&nbsp;did not materialize since operating margins were higher than last quarter and the corresponding period last year, analysts were expecting better performance in international markets. Cowen analyst, Andrew Charles, stated that Starbucks’s 41% change in comparable-store sales relative to the same period last year fell short of the 62% growth he anticipated to see. Nonetheless, the impressive numbers from the U.S. were enough for Charles to raise his price target from $126 to $135. Likewise, Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull had expected international comparable store sales to increase 66%. O’Cull further noted that management offered guidance, which implied roughly flat two-year international comparable store sales.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于营业利润率高于上一季度和去年同期，对劳动力成本上升的担忧并未成为现实，但分析师预计国际市场的表现会更好。Cowen 分析师安德鲁-查尔斯（Andrew Charles）表示，星巴克同店销售额与去年同期相比变化了 41%，低于他预期的 62% 的增长率。尽管如此，美国令人印象深刻的数字足以让查尔斯将目标价从 126 美元提高到 135 美元。同样，Stifel 分析师 Chris O'Cull 曾预计国际可比商店销售额将增长 66%。O'Cull 进一步指出，管理层提供了指导意见，这意味着两年国际可比门店销售额大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> The question to investors remains whether strong U.S. growth is enough to keep on offsetting slower international growth and push the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的问题仍然是，美国强劲的增长是否足以继续抵消国际增长放缓并推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么其股价下跌。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么其股价下跌。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-28 22:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>尽管星巴克在周二收盘后公布的财报好于预期，但其股价仍在下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks&nbsp;reported non-GAAP per-share earnings of $1.01 on $7.5 billion in revenue, a record. Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $0.77 on $7.3 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克公布的非 GAAP 每股收益为 1.01 美元，营收为 75 亿美元，创下历史新高。分析师预测每股收益为 0.77 美元，营收为 73 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Despite beating consensus revenue and earnings targets, Starbucks stock is down 3%, to $122.30.</p><p><blockquote>尽管超出了普遍的收入和盈利目标，星巴克股价仍下跌 3%，至 122.30 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Driven by an 84% increase in same-store sales in America, the global coffee giant reported an overall increase in comparable-store sales of 73% relative to the third quarter last year. Indeed, brand loyalty remains strong, especially in the U.S. where 90-day active&nbsp;members of the Starbucks Rewards loyalty program&nbsp;increased 48% year-over-year and now account for 51% of all spending in U.S. stores–up 8% from pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote>在美国同店销售额增长 84% 的推动下，这家全球咖啡巨头报告称，与去年第三季度相比，同店销售额整体增长了 73%。事实上，品牌忠诚度依然强劲，尤其是在美国，星巴克奖励忠诚度计划的 90 天活跃会员同比增长 48%，目前占美国门店所有支出的 51%，比大流行前的水平增长了 8%。</blockquote></p><p> In a statement, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson told investors “Starbucks delivered record performance in the third quarter, demonstrating powerful momentum beyond recovery. Our ability to move with speed and agility and to be out in front of shifting customer behaviors has helped further differentiate Starbucks, positioning us well for this moment.”</p><p><blockquote>星巴克首席执行官凯文-约翰逊（Kevin Johnson）在一份声明中告诉投资者：“星巴克在第三季度取得了创纪录的业绩，展现出了复苏之外的强劲势头。我们能够快速灵活地行动，并在不断变化的顾客行为面前保持领先地位，这有助于星巴克进一步脱颖而出，使我们在这一时刻处于有利地位。”</blockquote></p><p> The strong results have prompted management to raise the company’s 2021 earnings per share outlook from $2.90-$3.00 to $3.20-$3.25.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的业绩促使管理层将公司 2021 年的每股收益预期从 2.90-3.00 美元上调至 3.20-3.25 美元。</blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call, analysts were keen to hear about management’s outlook on China, as they expressed concerns about consumer pushback against U.S. brands in the region. However, Johnson was quick to dispel the concerns, commenting that there hasn’t been a&nbsp;geopolitical event in China&nbsp;that has impacted them in the past couple of years, and he doesn’t foresee that happening as long as they continue taking care of their partners and customers.</p><p><blockquote>在财报看涨期权上，分析师们渴望听到管理层对中国的展望，因为他们对消费者在该地区抵制美国品牌表示担忧。不过，约翰逊很快打消了人们的担忧，他评论说，在过去几年里，中国没有发生过对他们产生影响的地缘政治事件，只要他们继续照顾好自己的合作伙伴和客户，他预计这种情况就不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> While fears about&nbsp;rising labor costs&nbsp;did not materialize since operating margins were higher than last quarter and the corresponding period last year, analysts were expecting better performance in international markets. Cowen analyst, Andrew Charles, stated that Starbucks’s 41% change in comparable-store sales relative to the same period last year fell short of the 62% growth he anticipated to see. Nonetheless, the impressive numbers from the U.S. were enough for Charles to raise his price target from $126 to $135. Likewise, Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull had expected international comparable store sales to increase 66%. O’Cull further noted that management offered guidance, which implied roughly flat two-year international comparable store sales.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于营业利润率高于上一季度和去年同期，对劳动力成本上升的担忧并未成为现实，但分析师预计国际市场的表现会更好。Cowen 分析师安德鲁-查尔斯（Andrew Charles）表示，星巴克同店销售额与去年同期相比变化了 41%，低于他预期的 62% 的增长率。尽管如此，美国令人印象深刻的数字足以让查尔斯将目标价从 126 美元提高到 135 美元。同样，Stifel 分析师 Chris O'Cull 曾预计国际可比商店销售额将增长 66%。O'Cull 进一步指出，管理层提供了指导意见，这意味着两年国际可比门店销售额大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> The question to investors remains whether strong U.S. growth is enough to keep on offsetting slower international growth and push the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的问题仍然是，美国强劲的增长是否足以继续抵消国际增长放缓并推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/starbucks-earnings-stock-51627419105?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/starbucks-earnings-stock-51627419105?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112939298","content_text":"Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s close.\nStarbucks reported non-GAAP per-share earnings of $1.01 on $7.5 billion in revenue, a record. Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $0.77 on $7.3 billion in revenue.\nDespite beating consensus revenue and earnings targets, Starbucks stock is down 3%, to $122.30.\nDriven by an 84% increase in same-store sales in America, the global coffee giant reported an overall increase in comparable-store sales of 73% relative to the third quarter last year. Indeed, brand loyalty remains strong, especially in the U.S. where 90-day active members of the Starbucks Rewards loyalty program increased 48% year-over-year and now account for 51% of all spending in U.S. stores–up 8% from pre-pandemic levels.\nIn a statement, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson told investors “Starbucks delivered record performance in the third quarter, demonstrating powerful momentum beyond recovery. Our ability to move with speed and agility and to be out in front of shifting customer behaviors has helped further differentiate Starbucks, positioning us well for this moment.”\nThe strong results have prompted management to raise the company’s 2021 earnings per share outlook from $2.90-$3.00 to $3.20-$3.25.\nDuring the earnings call, analysts were keen to hear about management’s outlook on China, as they expressed concerns about consumer pushback against U.S. brands in the region. However, Johnson was quick to dispel the concerns, commenting that there hasn’t been a geopolitical event in China that has impacted them in the past couple of years, and he doesn’t foresee that happening as long as they continue taking care of their partners and customers.\nWhile fears about rising labor costs did not materialize since operating margins were higher than last quarter and the corresponding period last year, analysts were expecting better performance in international markets. Cowen analyst, Andrew Charles, stated that Starbucks’s 41% change in comparable-store sales relative to the same period last year fell short of the 62% growth he anticipated to see. Nonetheless, the impressive numbers from the U.S. were enough for Charles to raise his price target from $126 to $135. Likewise, Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull had expected international comparable store sales to increase 66%. O’Cull further noted that management offered guidance, which implied roughly flat two-year international comparable store sales.\nThe question to investors remains whether strong U.S. growth is enough to keep on offsetting slower international growth and push the stock higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809434568,"gmtCreate":1627386178054,"gmtModify":1633765521321,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yet to try.","listText":"Yet to try.","text":"Yet to try.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809434568","repostId":"1118738178","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118738178","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627385338,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1118738178?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 19:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Snap Stock: One Of Fastest Growing Social Media Companies<blockquote>Snap股票：增长最快的社交媒体公司之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118738178","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSnap had a high bar to cross to impress investors. And not only did its Q2 results succeed ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Snap had a high bar to cross to impress investors. And not only did its Q2 results succeed but, looking out to its Q3 guidance, its prospects remain very attractive.</li>  <li>Snap's ARPU in North America was the highlight of its Q2 results.</li>  <li>Snap is not in the bargain basement. Hence, investors looking to buy at this stage will have to take a buy-and-hold investment strategy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce123df394d362ecf57640f1621162e3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Geber86/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Snap要给投资者留下深刻印象，需要跨越很高的门槛。其第二季度业绩不仅取得了成功，而且从第三季度指引来看，其前景仍然非常有吸引力。</li><li>Snap 在北美的 ARPU 是其第二季度业绩的亮点。</li><li>Snap不在便宜货地下室。因此，希望在现阶段买入的投资者将不得不采取买入并持有的投资策略。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Geber86/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Snap (SNAP) reported yet another impressive result and Q3 2021 guidance. And as we dig into its results, there are no obvious blemishes in the report. Snap continues growing its top line revenues at very strong rates, while its bottom line EBITDA growth is even more impressive.</p><p><blockquote>SNAP（SNAP）报告了另一项令人印象深刻的业绩和 2021 年第三季度指引。当我们深入研究其结果时，报告中没有明显的瑕疵。Snap继续以非常强劲的速度增长其营收，而其利润 EBITDA 增长则更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> At 29x forward sales, the stock is not cheap. And investors considering this investment opportunity will have to adopt a very&nbsp;<i>strong-willed buy-and-hold investment strategy</i>. Because at this valuation, the stock is already pricing in a lot of future growth.</p><p><blockquote>以 29 倍的远期销售额计算，这只股票并不便宜。考虑这一投资机会的投资者将不得不采取非常<i>意志坚强的买入并持有投资策略</i>.因为在这个估值下，该股已经在为未来的增长定价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Growth Rates Are Incredibly Strong</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长率非常强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72843b7d7a6cc562b484e25eac7cacbe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **high-end guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者的计算；**高端指导</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Q2 2021 was always going to look strong given just how weak the advertising industry found itself in the same period a year ago. Thus, Snap shareholders were clearly expecting a lot. But to see Snap come out with more than triple digits y/y revenue growth rates? That was particularly stunning.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到去年同期广告业的疲软程度，2021年第二季度看起来总是很强劲。因此，Snap股东显然期望很高。但看到Snap的同比收入增长率超过三位数？这尤其令人惊叹。</blockquote></p><p> Previously, I had noted that investors should look beyond&nbsp;Snap's maturing MAUs in North America, and look towards its International opportunity as its next wave of growth opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>此前，我曾指出，投资者应该超越 Snap 在北美成熟的 MAU，将其国际机会视为下一波增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> However, even though its overseas revenues were strong, the real driver of Snap's returns come from the pricing power of its North America users:</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管其海外收入强劲，但 Snap 回报的真正驱动力来自其北美用户的定价权：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95aca2444a479c7dc060c03d6bf0cec3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In the table above, I've stripped out all the other details for us to focus our discussions around Snap's Average Revenue Per User (\"ARPU\"). As you can see, pricing in North America was the real driver of revenues, with ARPU up 116% y/y. Why is this important?</p><p><blockquote>在上表中，我已经剔除了所有其他细节，以便我们将讨论的重点集中在Snap的每用户平均收入（“ARPU”）上。如您所见，北美的定价是收入的真正驱动力，ARPU 同比增长 116%。为什么这很重要？</blockquote></p><p> It's important because it shows that, even on the back of just 6% y/y growth in DAUs in North America, advertisers are eager to reach out and connect with Snap's young demographic and pay up for that opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这很重要，因为它表明，即使北美 DAU 同比仅增长 6%，广告商也渴望接触和联系 Snap 的年轻人群，并为这一机会付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could Spectacles be the Next Wave of Growth for Snap?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>眼镜会成为Snap的下一波增长吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> For some time, Snap has been making investors aware that it's moving beyond just a social media platform and that it's now looking to take its Augmented Reality technology and deploy it into hardware.</p><p><blockquote>一段时间以来，Snap一直在让投资者意识到，它正在超越一个社交媒体平台，现在正在寻求将其增强现实技术部署到硬件中。</blockquote></p><p> At first, this was met with investor skepticism. After all, Snap was taking an asset-light and lucrative business and pivoting towards a hardware revenue business, with lower margins.</p><p><blockquote>起初，这遭到了投资者的怀疑。毕竟，Snap正在从事轻资产、利润丰厚的业务，并转向利润率较低的硬件收入业务。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, it didn't make much sense why Snap would make such a move. Particularly given that Snap had, without any hardware investment, grown very successfully and built the necessary technology to spring off other manufacturers' capital investment into a business with nearly $4.5 billion in run-rate revenues as of Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Snap为什么会做出这样的举动并没有多大意义。特别是考虑到Snap在没有任何硬件投资的情况下，发展非常成功，并建立了必要的技术，以吸引其他制造商对该业务的资本投资，截至 2021 年第四季度，该业务的运行率收入接近 45 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Snap asserts that by further developing its&nbsp;Spectacles business unit, users can not only create more immersive content, but they will have access to other uses as well.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Snap断言，通过进一步发展其眼镜业务部门，用户不仅可以创建更多身临其境的内容，还可以获得其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, by using Spectacles, users can use AR try-on technology to emulate a physical shopping experience and get clothing with the right fit and the right size, to reduce the need for online returns.</p><p><blockquote>例如，通过使用眼镜，用户可以使用AR试穿技术来模拟实体购物体验，并获得合适合身和尺寸的衣服，以减少在线退货的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The underlying idea is to increase user engagement and build an increased digital inventory of the users' life journeys. Other uses could be to increase the personalization of an online shopping experience.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的想法是增加用户参与度，并建立一个更多的用户生活旅程的数字库存。其他用途可能是增加在线购物体验的个性化。</blockquote></p><p> This is something that is likely to resonate strongly with Snap's young demographic and offers Snap an opportunity to differentiate itself against other players in this space.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会引起 Snap 年轻人口的强烈共鸣，并为Snap提供了一个在该领域与其他参与者区分开来的机会。</blockquote></p><p> While Snap is quick to note that this is not yet a fully-fledged solution, it's nevertheless a way to improve shoppers' online experience by making visualization personal and as close to real as possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Snap很快指出，这还不是一个成熟的解决方案，但它仍然是一种通过使可视化个性化并尽可能接近真实来改善购物者在线体验的方式。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Hence, the question investors have to answer is whether this is all already priced in or if there's still more upside potential?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，投资者必须回答的问题是，这一切是否已经被定价，或者是否还有更多的上涨潜力？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>SNAP Stock Valuation: Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SNAP股票估值：不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Snap is valued at approximately 29x forward sales. If we compare with Pinterest (PINS), which trades at approximately 19x forward sales, this reminds readers that a lot of excitement, optimism, expectation, and positive sentiment is evidently priced into Snap.</p><p><blockquote>Snap的估值约为远期销售额的 29 倍。如果我们将其与Pinterest (PINS) 进行比较，其交易价格约为远期销售额的 19 倍，这提醒读者，Snap显然体现了许多兴奋、乐观、期待和积极情绪。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, shareholders may be quick to remark that even if Snap is richly valued, high quality and rapidly growing businesses rarely trade in the bargain basement -- particularly towards the end of a very long bull market.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，股东们可能很快就会指出，即使Snap估值很高，高质量和快速增长的企业也很少在便宜货的地下室交易——特别是在漫长牛市即将结束的时候。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, keep in mind that Snap is now signaling to investors that its multi-year investments are now paying fruit and this now marks the third quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability over its trailing twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>此外，请记住，Snap现在正在向投资者发出信号，其多年投资正在取得成果，这标志着其过去 12 个月调整后 EBITDA 盈利能力的第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, if Snap's Q2 2021's 116% top line appears strong and caught many headlines, then Snap's adjusted EBITDA growth of more than 200% looks even better.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果 Snap 2021 年第二季度 116% 的营收显得强劲并成为许多头条新闻，那么 Snap 超过 200% 的调整后 EBITDA 增长看起来更好。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, as we look out to its guidance next quarter, its bottom line EBITDA is expected to once again posttriple digits EBITDA growth y/y.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，当我们展望下一季度的指引时，其底线 EBITDA 预计将再次实现三位数的 EBITDA 同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Premortem (Investment Risks)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>死亡前（投资风险）</b></blockquote></p><p> Arguably, the single bearish consideration is that Snap's valuation doesn't offer investors much room for error. Not only does it trade more expensively than other social platforms, but it's also clearly a richly valued stock.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，唯一的看跌考虑是 Snap 的估值没有给投资者提供太多的犯错空间。它不仅比其他社交平台的交易价格更高，而且显然也是一只估值很高的股票。</blockquote></p><p> To this end, we see that investors pricing a lot of optimism that Snap will continue to positively surprise investors. Consequently, any mishaps during any quarter, when a stock is so richly priced, leaves the stock primed for a meaningful sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>为此，我们看到投资者对Snap将继续给投资者带来积极惊喜的乐观情绪定价。因此，当一只股票的定价如此高时，任何季度的任何意外都会使该股票为有意义的抛售做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Next, the bulk of investor thesis is to a large extent contingent on Snap's DAUs continuing to steadily increase. What's more, Q2 2021 marked just a mid-single-digit increase in DAUs in North America.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，投资者的大部分论点在很大程度上取决于 Snap 的 DAU 是否继续稳步增长。此外，2021 年第二季度北美 DAU 仅出现了中个位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab82b3b3570378165d43957bf0e925c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"65\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> If we look back to H1 2019 (pre-COVID), Snap's DAU growth was approximately compared with the same period in the prior year. This is an undeniable reminder that Snap's DAU growth had previously flattened and that it's entirely possible that it may flatten down once again. If that were to happen, investors would not regard Snap as a high growth name, and the number of investors that would be willing to pay for the stock would decrease.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们回顾2019年上半年（新冠疫情之前），Snap的DAU增长与上一年同期大致相当。这是一个不可否认的提醒，Snap 的 DAU 增长之前已经持平，而且完全有可能再次持平。如果发生这种情况，投资者就不会将Snap视为一个高增长的名字，愿意购买该股票的投资者数量也会减少。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line: Is SNAP A Good Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线：SNAP值得购买吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though Snap is not a cheap stock, Snap continues to demonstrate that its revenue growth rates remain incredibly strong.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Snap不是一只便宜的股票，但Snap继续证明其收入增长率仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> While there's a lot to like in Snap's investment, I will sit out this opportunity as I prefer to invest in companies where the outlook is not as rosy, but the valuation is dramatically cheaper.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Snap 的投资有很多值得喜欢的地方，但我会错过这个机会，因为我更喜欢投资前景不那么乐观但估值要便宜得多的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snap Stock: One Of Fastest Growing Social Media Companies<blockquote>Snap股票：增长最快的社交媒体公司之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnap Stock: One Of Fastest Growing Social Media Companies<blockquote>Snap股票：增长最快的社交媒体公司之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 19:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Snap had a high bar to cross to impress investors. And not only did its Q2 results succeed but, looking out to its Q3 guidance, its prospects remain very attractive.</li>  <li>Snap's ARPU in North America was the highlight of its Q2 results.</li>  <li>Snap is not in the bargain basement. Hence, investors looking to buy at this stage will have to take a buy-and-hold investment strategy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce123df394d362ecf57640f1621162e3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Geber86/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Snap要给投资者留下深刻印象，需要跨越很高的门槛。其第二季度业绩不仅取得了成功，而且从第三季度指引来看，其前景仍然非常有吸引力。</li><li>Snap 在北美的 ARPU 是其第二季度业绩的亮点。</li><li>Snap不在便宜货地下室。因此，希望在现阶段买入的投资者将不得不采取买入并持有的投资策略。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Geber86/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Snap (SNAP) reported yet another impressive result and Q3 2021 guidance. And as we dig into its results, there are no obvious blemishes in the report. Snap continues growing its top line revenues at very strong rates, while its bottom line EBITDA growth is even more impressive.</p><p><blockquote>SNAP（SNAP）报告了另一项令人印象深刻的业绩和 2021 年第三季度指引。当我们深入研究其结果时，报告中没有明显的瑕疵。Snap继续以非常强劲的速度增长其营收，而其利润 EBITDA 增长则更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> At 29x forward sales, the stock is not cheap. And investors considering this investment opportunity will have to adopt a very&nbsp;<i>strong-willed buy-and-hold investment strategy</i>. Because at this valuation, the stock is already pricing in a lot of future growth.</p><p><blockquote>以 29 倍的远期销售额计算，这只股票并不便宜。考虑这一投资机会的投资者将不得不采取非常<i>意志坚强的买入并持有投资策略</i>.因为在这个估值下，该股已经在为未来的增长定价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Growth Rates Are Incredibly Strong</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长率非常强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72843b7d7a6cc562b484e25eac7cacbe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **high-end guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者的计算；**高端指导</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Q2 2021 was always going to look strong given just how weak the advertising industry found itself in the same period a year ago. Thus, Snap shareholders were clearly expecting a lot. But to see Snap come out with more than triple digits y/y revenue growth rates? That was particularly stunning.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到去年同期广告业的疲软程度，2021年第二季度看起来总是很强劲。因此，Snap股东显然期望很高。但看到Snap的同比收入增长率超过三位数？这尤其令人惊叹。</blockquote></p><p> Previously, I had noted that investors should look beyond&nbsp;Snap's maturing MAUs in North America, and look towards its International opportunity as its next wave of growth opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>此前，我曾指出，投资者应该超越 Snap 在北美成熟的 MAU，将其国际机会视为下一波增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> However, even though its overseas revenues were strong, the real driver of Snap's returns come from the pricing power of its North America users:</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管其海外收入强劲，但 Snap 回报的真正驱动力来自其北美用户的定价权：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95aca2444a479c7dc060c03d6bf0cec3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In the table above, I've stripped out all the other details for us to focus our discussions around Snap's Average Revenue Per User (\"ARPU\"). As you can see, pricing in North America was the real driver of revenues, with ARPU up 116% y/y. Why is this important?</p><p><blockquote>在上表中，我已经剔除了所有其他细节，以便我们将讨论的重点集中在Snap的每用户平均收入（“ARPU”）上。如您所见，北美的定价是收入的真正驱动力，ARPU 同比增长 116%。为什么这很重要？</blockquote></p><p> It's important because it shows that, even on the back of just 6% y/y growth in DAUs in North America, advertisers are eager to reach out and connect with Snap's young demographic and pay up for that opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这很重要，因为它表明，即使北美 DAU 同比仅增长 6%，广告商也渴望接触和联系 Snap 的年轻人群，并为这一机会付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could Spectacles be the Next Wave of Growth for Snap?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>眼镜会成为Snap的下一波增长吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> For some time, Snap has been making investors aware that it's moving beyond just a social media platform and that it's now looking to take its Augmented Reality technology and deploy it into hardware.</p><p><blockquote>一段时间以来，Snap一直在让投资者意识到，它正在超越一个社交媒体平台，现在正在寻求将其增强现实技术部署到硬件中。</blockquote></p><p> At first, this was met with investor skepticism. After all, Snap was taking an asset-light and lucrative business and pivoting towards a hardware revenue business, with lower margins.</p><p><blockquote>起初，这遭到了投资者的怀疑。毕竟，Snap正在从事轻资产、利润丰厚的业务，并转向利润率较低的硬件收入业务。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, it didn't make much sense why Snap would make such a move. Particularly given that Snap had, without any hardware investment, grown very successfully and built the necessary technology to spring off other manufacturers' capital investment into a business with nearly $4.5 billion in run-rate revenues as of Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Snap为什么会做出这样的举动并没有多大意义。特别是考虑到Snap在没有任何硬件投资的情况下，发展非常成功，并建立了必要的技术，以吸引其他制造商对该业务的资本投资，截至 2021 年第四季度，该业务的运行率收入接近 45 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Snap asserts that by further developing its&nbsp;Spectacles business unit, users can not only create more immersive content, but they will have access to other uses as well.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Snap断言，通过进一步发展其眼镜业务部门，用户不仅可以创建更多身临其境的内容，还可以获得其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, by using Spectacles, users can use AR try-on technology to emulate a physical shopping experience and get clothing with the right fit and the right size, to reduce the need for online returns.</p><p><blockquote>例如，通过使用眼镜，用户可以使用AR试穿技术来模拟实体购物体验，并获得合适合身和尺寸的衣服，以减少在线退货的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The underlying idea is to increase user engagement and build an increased digital inventory of the users' life journeys. Other uses could be to increase the personalization of an online shopping experience.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的想法是增加用户参与度，并建立一个更多的用户生活旅程的数字库存。其他用途可能是增加在线购物体验的个性化。</blockquote></p><p> This is something that is likely to resonate strongly with Snap's young demographic and offers Snap an opportunity to differentiate itself against other players in this space.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会引起 Snap 年轻人口的强烈共鸣，并为Snap提供了一个在该领域与其他参与者区分开来的机会。</blockquote></p><p> While Snap is quick to note that this is not yet a fully-fledged solution, it's nevertheless a way to improve shoppers' online experience by making visualization personal and as close to real as possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Snap很快指出，这还不是一个成熟的解决方案，但它仍然是一种通过使可视化个性化并尽可能接近真实来改善购物者在线体验的方式。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Hence, the question investors have to answer is whether this is all already priced in or if there's still more upside potential?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，投资者必须回答的问题是，这一切是否已经被定价，或者是否还有更多的上涨潜力？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>SNAP Stock Valuation: Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SNAP股票估值：不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Snap is valued at approximately 29x forward sales. If we compare with Pinterest (PINS), which trades at approximately 19x forward sales, this reminds readers that a lot of excitement, optimism, expectation, and positive sentiment is evidently priced into Snap.</p><p><blockquote>Snap的估值约为远期销售额的 29 倍。如果我们将其与Pinterest (PINS) 进行比较，其交易价格约为远期销售额的 19 倍，这提醒读者，Snap显然体现了许多兴奋、乐观、期待和积极情绪。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, shareholders may be quick to remark that even if Snap is richly valued, high quality and rapidly growing businesses rarely trade in the bargain basement -- particularly towards the end of a very long bull market.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，股东们可能很快就会指出，即使Snap估值很高，高质量和快速增长的企业也很少在便宜货的地下室交易——特别是在漫长牛市即将结束的时候。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, keep in mind that Snap is now signaling to investors that its multi-year investments are now paying fruit and this now marks the third quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability over its trailing twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>此外，请记住，Snap现在正在向投资者发出信号，其多年投资正在取得成果，这标志着其过去 12 个月调整后 EBITDA 盈利能力的第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, if Snap's Q2 2021's 116% top line appears strong and caught many headlines, then Snap's adjusted EBITDA growth of more than 200% looks even better.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果 Snap 2021 年第二季度 116% 的营收显得强劲并成为许多头条新闻，那么 Snap 超过 200% 的调整后 EBITDA 增长看起来更好。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, as we look out to its guidance next quarter, its bottom line EBITDA is expected to once again posttriple digits EBITDA growth y/y.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，当我们展望下一季度的指引时，其底线 EBITDA 预计将再次实现三位数的 EBITDA 同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Premortem (Investment Risks)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>死亡前（投资风险）</b></blockquote></p><p> Arguably, the single bearish consideration is that Snap's valuation doesn't offer investors much room for error. Not only does it trade more expensively than other social platforms, but it's also clearly a richly valued stock.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，唯一的看跌考虑是 Snap 的估值没有给投资者提供太多的犯错空间。它不仅比其他社交平台的交易价格更高，而且显然也是一只估值很高的股票。</blockquote></p><p> To this end, we see that investors pricing a lot of optimism that Snap will continue to positively surprise investors. Consequently, any mishaps during any quarter, when a stock is so richly priced, leaves the stock primed for a meaningful sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>为此，我们看到投资者对Snap将继续给投资者带来积极惊喜的乐观情绪定价。因此，当一只股票的定价如此高时，任何季度的任何意外都会使该股票为有意义的抛售做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Next, the bulk of investor thesis is to a large extent contingent on Snap's DAUs continuing to steadily increase. What's more, Q2 2021 marked just a mid-single-digit increase in DAUs in North America.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，投资者的大部分论点在很大程度上取决于 Snap 的 DAU 是否继续稳步增长。此外，2021 年第二季度北美 DAU 仅出现了中个位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab82b3b3570378165d43957bf0e925c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"65\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> If we look back to H1 2019 (pre-COVID), Snap's DAU growth was approximately compared with the same period in the prior year. This is an undeniable reminder that Snap's DAU growth had previously flattened and that it's entirely possible that it may flatten down once again. If that were to happen, investors would not regard Snap as a high growth name, and the number of investors that would be willing to pay for the stock would decrease.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们回顾2019年上半年（新冠疫情之前），Snap的DAU增长与上一年同期大致相当。这是一个不可否认的提醒，Snap 的 DAU 增长之前已经持平，而且完全有可能再次持平。如果发生这种情况，投资者就不会将Snap视为一个高增长的名字，愿意购买该股票的投资者数量也会减少。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line: Is SNAP A Good Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线：SNAP值得购买吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though Snap is not a cheap stock, Snap continues to demonstrate that its revenue growth rates remain incredibly strong.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Snap不是一只便宜的股票，但Snap继续证明其收入增长率仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> While there's a lot to like in Snap's investment, I will sit out this opportunity as I prefer to invest in companies where the outlook is not as rosy, but the valuation is dramatically cheaper.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Snap 的投资有很多值得喜欢的地方，但我会错过这个机会，因为我更喜欢投资前景不那么乐观但估值要便宜得多的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441412-snap-one-of-fastest-growing-social-media-companies\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441412-snap-one-of-fastest-growing-social-media-companies","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118738178","content_text":"Summary\n\nSnap had a high bar to cross to impress investors. And not only did its Q2 results succeed but, looking out to its Q3 guidance, its prospects remain very attractive.\nSnap's ARPU in North America was the highlight of its Q2 results.\nSnap is not in the bargain basement. Hence, investors looking to buy at this stage will have to take a buy-and-hold investment strategy.\n\nGeber86/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nSnap (SNAP) reported yet another impressive result and Q3 2021 guidance. And as we dig into its results, there are no obvious blemishes in the report. Snap continues growing its top line revenues at very strong rates, while its bottom line EBITDA growth is even more impressive.\nAt 29x forward sales, the stock is not cheap. And investors considering this investment opportunity will have to adopt a very strong-willed buy-and-hold investment strategy. Because at this valuation, the stock is already pricing in a lot of future growth.\nRevenue Growth Rates Are Incredibly Strong\nSource: author's calculations; **high-end guidance\nQ2 2021 was always going to look strong given just how weak the advertising industry found itself in the same period a year ago. Thus, Snap shareholders were clearly expecting a lot. But to see Snap come out with more than triple digits y/y revenue growth rates? That was particularly stunning.\nPreviously, I had noted that investors should look beyond Snap's maturing MAUs in North America, and look towards its International opportunity as its next wave of growth opportunities.\nHowever, even though its overseas revenues were strong, the real driver of Snap's returns come from the pricing power of its North America users:\n\nIn the table above, I've stripped out all the other details for us to focus our discussions around Snap's Average Revenue Per User (\"ARPU\"). As you can see, pricing in North America was the real driver of revenues, with ARPU up 116% y/y. Why is this important?\nIt's important because it shows that, even on the back of just 6% y/y growth in DAUs in North America, advertisers are eager to reach out and connect with Snap's young demographic and pay up for that opportunity.\nCould Spectacles be the Next Wave of Growth for Snap?\nFor some time, Snap has been making investors aware that it's moving beyond just a social media platform and that it's now looking to take its Augmented Reality technology and deploy it into hardware.\nAt first, this was met with investor skepticism. After all, Snap was taking an asset-light and lucrative business and pivoting towards a hardware revenue business, with lower margins.\nIndeed, it didn't make much sense why Snap would make such a move. Particularly given that Snap had, without any hardware investment, grown very successfully and built the necessary technology to spring off other manufacturers' capital investment into a business with nearly $4.5 billion in run-rate revenues as of Q4 2021.\nHaving said that, Snap asserts that by further developing its Spectacles business unit, users can not only create more immersive content, but they will have access to other uses as well.\nFor instance, by using Spectacles, users can use AR try-on technology to emulate a physical shopping experience and get clothing with the right fit and the right size, to reduce the need for online returns.\nThe underlying idea is to increase user engagement and build an increased digital inventory of the users' life journeys. Other uses could be to increase the personalization of an online shopping experience.\nThis is something that is likely to resonate strongly with Snap's young demographic and offers Snap an opportunity to differentiate itself against other players in this space.\nWhile Snap is quick to note that this is not yet a fully-fledged solution, it's nevertheless a way to improve shoppers' online experience by making visualization personal and as close to real as possible.\nHence, the question investors have to answer is whether this is all already priced in or if there's still more upside potential?\nSNAP Stock Valuation: Not Cheap\nSnap is valued at approximately 29x forward sales. If we compare with Pinterest (PINS), which trades at approximately 19x forward sales, this reminds readers that a lot of excitement, optimism, expectation, and positive sentiment is evidently priced into Snap.\nOn the other hand, shareholders may be quick to remark that even if Snap is richly valued, high quality and rapidly growing businesses rarely trade in the bargain basement -- particularly towards the end of a very long bull market.\nMoreover, keep in mind that Snap is now signaling to investors that its multi-year investments are now paying fruit and this now marks the third quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability over its trailing twelve months.\nHence, if Snap's Q2 2021's 116% top line appears strong and caught many headlines, then Snap's adjusted EBITDA growth of more than 200% looks even better.\nWhat's more, as we look out to its guidance next quarter, its bottom line EBITDA is expected to once again posttriple digits EBITDA growth y/y.\nPremortem (Investment Risks)\nArguably, the single bearish consideration is that Snap's valuation doesn't offer investors much room for error. Not only does it trade more expensively than other social platforms, but it's also clearly a richly valued stock.\nTo this end, we see that investors pricing a lot of optimism that Snap will continue to positively surprise investors. Consequently, any mishaps during any quarter, when a stock is so richly priced, leaves the stock primed for a meaningful sell-off.\nNext, the bulk of investor thesis is to a large extent contingent on Snap's DAUs continuing to steadily increase. What's more, Q2 2021 marked just a mid-single-digit increase in DAUs in North America.\n\nIf we look back to H1 2019 (pre-COVID), Snap's DAU growth was approximately compared with the same period in the prior year. This is an undeniable reminder that Snap's DAU growth had previously flattened and that it's entirely possible that it may flatten down once again. If that were to happen, investors would not regard Snap as a high growth name, and the number of investors that would be willing to pay for the stock would decrease.\nThe Bottom Line: Is SNAP A Good Buy?\nEven though Snap is not a cheap stock, Snap continues to demonstrate that its revenue growth rates remain incredibly strong.\nWhile there's a lot to like in Snap's investment, I will sit out this opportunity as I prefer to invest in companies where the outlook is not as rosy, but the valuation is dramatically cheaper.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNAP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809435186,"gmtCreate":1627386113245,"gmtModify":1633765522126,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Moral actions will cause upheaval only in the short term.&nbsp;","listText":"Moral actions will cause upheaval only in the short term.&nbsp;","text":"Moral actions will cause upheaval only in the short term.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809435186","repostId":"2154813991","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800614388,"gmtCreate":1627297477644,"gmtModify":1633766415858,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Whose selling","listText":"Whose selling","text":"Whose selling","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800614388","repostId":"1123832536","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800611028,"gmtCreate":1627297137464,"gmtModify":1633766418449,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Greed foot in the door","listText":"Greed foot in the door","text":"Greed foot in the door","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800611028","repostId":"1175108896","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175108896","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627290545,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175108896?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175108896","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li>  <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li>  <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li>  <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉正在向类似 Adobe 的订阅商业模式发展，事实证明，这种模式的收入会飙升。</li><li>通过这种方式，特斯拉再次成为先行者，并将在未来几十年为行业制定标准。</li><li>从技术上讲，最近的走势是一个相当正常的模式，往往会带来更多的收益。</li><li>我建议 TSLA 多头在盈利前在头寸中添加信用策略，以获得保护和额外收入。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p><p><blockquote>我上一次写关于特斯拉 (TSLA) 的文章是在 2019 年，当时我建议在回调时买入。表示回调是指回调至 47 美元，特斯拉可能永远不会再达到这个数字。如今，TSLA 的售价超过 1,000 美元，这是有充分理由的。</blockquote></p><p> And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a&nbsp;full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉又有了一个理由来证明其高昂的价格是合理的。该公司推出了全自动驾驶（FSD）订阅。这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>订阅：终极盈利模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p><p><blockquote>软件——以及更广泛的技术——已经转向基于订阅的商业模式，事实证明，就盈利能力而言，这种模式远远优于旧的经营方式（直接销售产品）。我们曾经为 Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop 等产品支付过一次性费用，而现在几乎可以肯定，我们在产品生命周期内支付的费用远远超过一次性费用。对于技术发展较慢的汽车行业来说，订阅商业模式可以比传统模式从客户那里吸走更多的钱只是时间问题，我对特斯拉成为第一家采用这种策略的公司并不感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p><p><blockquote>我相信皮埃尔·费拉古明白这一点。摘自 SA 关于 FSD 订阅的上述链接新闻：</blockquote></p><p>   One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”  Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p><p><blockquote>New Street Research 分析师 Pierre Ferragu 是特斯拉 FSD 上涨的最大看涨者之一。他认为，到 2030 年，特斯拉将从销售一辆汽车中获得大约 7,000 美元的利润，从销售同一辆车的 FSD 订阅中获得近 23,000 美元的利润。如果Ferragu是正确的，整个行业有望转向自主订阅服务模式。”费拉古的预测与我对基于订阅的商业模式的看法不谋而合。特斯拉的收入和订阅模式很容易变得类似 Adobe，公司绝大部分收入都来自订阅。(通过 Adobe 的业绩，可以很容易地看出这种商业模式是如何运作的（尽管许多其他公司也看到了类似的结果）：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the stock sees results too:</p><p><blockquote>当然，该股也看到了结果：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，费拉古指出，整个行业将转向订阅商业模式，我同意这种观点。有些人可能会说，汽车行业不是软件行业，在汽车方面，最好以合理的价格提供优质产品。但历史会证明这是不正确的：看看通用汽车 (GM) 是如何将福特 (F) 这家以创造持久耐用、高质量汽车为基础的公司推向计划报废范式（每年对每个产品线进行设计升级）行业已经陷入了这种模式。</blockquote></p><p> In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p><p><blockquote>未来，特斯拉的大部分收入将不再来自汽车销售，而是来自订阅。这是大多数行业向前发展的新经济，特斯拉将成为汽车行业这一商业模式的先驱。我们已经看到，软件和电影（迪斯尼和 Netflix 等流媒体服务）是如何有利于盈利的，汽车也应该是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下：特斯拉在 2020 年售出了约 50 万辆汽车。随着柏林、上海和德克萨斯工厂今年的投产，特斯拉应该会在 2021 年额外生产 30 万辆汽车。按照这个速度，到 2022 年底，特斯拉将超过每年 100 万人大关（可能在 150 万人左右）。假设每年生产的汽车中只有一半最终获得 FSD 订阅，那么，la Adobe，订阅收入可以很快接近传统模式的收入——请注意，该模型非常保守，因为它忽略了 2020 年之前生产的所有汽车：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每年 FSD 订阅收入</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>很难说订阅收入何时会超过汽车销售收入，因为该车型存在许多未知数，如特斯拉驾驶员订阅 FSD 的比例，以及 2023 款 Model 3 能否成功打入 “经济适用车 ”市场。然而，订阅收入的增长率是几何级数到指数级的，在未来几年内将达到两位数的百分比，到本十年末很可能成为特斯拉收入来源的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这方面迈出了正确的一步，我们很可能会看到该公司克服困扰汽车行业几十年的障碍。如果是这样，在针对汽车行业的政治政策的情况下，我们可能会看到收益差异较低。例如，FSD 订阅的收入可能不会受到新关税和环境政策的影响，这两个监管来源通常针对汽车本身，而不是所使用的软件。这仍然是推测性的，但到目前为止，我们没有理由怀疑政府会在其碳减排法规或税收政策中专门针对 FSD 订阅。</blockquote></p><p> Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p><p><blockquote>一旦成功推出，FSD订阅可能会成为公司可靠的收入来源。随着订阅收入增长到超过销售收入的程度，投资者将越来越多地将特斯拉视为一项安全的投资。随着订阅收入超过传统销售收入，特斯拉的 IV 应该会下降，而 IV 的下降往往与股价上涨相关。</blockquote></p><p> From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面和股票角度来看，FSD认购公告都是高度看涨的。我认为这是 TSLA 多头在任何重大回调时买入的一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们必须承认，与所有新的商业模式一样，投资者也有固有的风险。虽然订阅模式本身非常有利可图，但特斯拉司机是否会接受FSD订阅仍然是成功采用该模式的关键因素。虽然我相信——由于其过往记录——特斯拉最终将解决其自动驾驶功能的技术问题，但我可以看到 FSD 可能失败的两个主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能无法将 FSD 提高到承诺的 5 级，这可能会导致订户提起集体诉讼。FSD的技术方面超出了我的专业知识，尽管我在人工智能方面的背景告诉我，达到5级是一项巨大的努力。马斯克过去已经成功地完成了巨大的努力，但也许那些比我更了解人工智能的人有充分的理由相信，这是马斯克将要死去的山丘。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>第二，价格点可能过高。每月只需 200 美元，你就可以租到一辆全新的本田汽车，或者你也可以进入特斯拉正在开发的 FSD，作为一种测试仪。随着我们进入 2023 年，这对特斯拉来说应该是重要的一年，售价 25,000 美元的 Model 2 使该公司能够接触到新的客户群体，我们需要重新考虑每月 200 美元的订阅是否会吸引普通特斯拉用户群。从长远来看，定价过高的订阅模式很容易固定，因此不应被视为牛市论点的巨大风险，但过高的价格可能会阻碍特斯拉在汽车行业率先实施订阅模式所需的初始市场渗透。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Bullishness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术看涨</b></blockquote></p><p> From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，特斯拉看起来也很乐观。虽然与过去几年相比，特斯拉经常被认为定价过高，但它并没有做出不符合该股特征的走势。最近的走势模式实际上看起来很像 2020 年初，就在大规模反弹之前：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p><p><blockquote>一旦你控制了交易日，走势看起来相对保守。它是关于给定季度的中位数变动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p><p><blockquote>如果您将此推断到 200 个交易日，您会发现 TSLA 往往会再上涨 10%，波动性相当平均。2020 年的运动仅在规模上是一个异常值；这种模式本身与特斯拉通常的年度走势并没有太大区别：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉进入盈利阶段，一份令人印象深刻的盈利报告可能会给我们带来类似的上涨趋势。当然，在收益上玩 TSLA 是相当有风险的，这就是为什么我们在我的收益交易组（暴露收益）中通常不会在收益上玩 TSLA。因此，我建议那些对 TSLA 感兴趣的人在 FSD 订阅消息后买入，因为这是一个看涨的基本面催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权策略</b></blockquote></p><p> If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果您正在玩期权，您可能希望等到收益之后，这样您就不会面临波动性崩溃（期权 IV 迅速下跌，从而降低了多头期权的价值，因为多头期权也是多头织女星）。不过，如果您想采取期权策略来对冲收益风险，我建议您这样做。我假设你持有 100 股 TSLA 股票，从长远来看，这是一种额外利润的对冲方式：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li>  <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li> </ol> Net credit: $7000</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>7 月 30 日卖出 1x 700 美元看跌期权</li><li>购买 2 倍 7 月 30 日 650 美元看跌期权</li></ol>净信用：7000 美元</blockquote></p><p> This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个不稳定的策略，这意味着它允许我们在任何一方都获利。主要风险是特斯拉是否盘整，7 月份剩余时间的交易价格严格在 650 美元至 700 美元之间。否则，我们将在任何一方获利，要么通过下行时的净多头看跌，要么通过股票加上从多头策略中获得的信用。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p><p><blockquote>即使您确信 TSLA 不会因盈利而抛售，该策略也会为您带来每 100 股额外 7000 美元的利润。你也有下行保护的附加值。请在评论区告诉我你的想法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉增加的 FSD 订阅大大提高了公司的最大收入潜力。事实证明，订阅服务可以快速而彻底改变公司的主要收入来源，并可以轻松地将特斯拉变成一家软件公司，而不是一家汽车公司。因此，我们需要考虑特斯拉进入电动汽车市场只是该公司的开始，特斯拉的财务未来在于其 FSD 服务。如果是这样，我们就低估了这家公司，就像我们用电动汽车的眼光来判断一家软件公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p><p><blockquote>由于 FSD 的前景，我从长远来看非常看好 TSLA。短期内，我认为技术面暗示着向上波动。有了 7 月 26 日的财报，你可能想对冲特斯拉波动性带来的下行空间。但总体而言，即使出现短期回调，以这个价格做多特斯拉也可能是一个有利可图的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 17:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li>  <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li>  <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li>  <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉正在向类似 Adobe 的订阅商业模式发展，事实证明，这种模式的收入会飙升。</li><li>通过这种方式，特斯拉再次成为先行者，并将在未来几十年为行业制定标准。</li><li>从技术上讲，最近的走势是一个相当正常的模式，往往会带来更多的收益。</li><li>我建议 TSLA 多头在盈利前在头寸中添加信用策略，以获得保护和额外收入。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p><p><blockquote>我上一次写关于特斯拉 (TSLA) 的文章是在 2019 年，当时我建议在回调时买入。表示回调是指回调至 47 美元，特斯拉可能永远不会再达到这个数字。如今，TSLA 的售价超过 1,000 美元，这是有充分理由的。</blockquote></p><p> And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a&nbsp;full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉又有了一个理由来证明其高昂的价格是合理的。该公司推出了全自动驾驶（FSD）订阅。这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>订阅：终极盈利模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p><p><blockquote>软件——以及更广泛的技术——已经转向基于订阅的商业模式，事实证明，就盈利能力而言，这种模式远远优于旧的经营方式（直接销售产品）。我们曾经为 Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop 等产品支付过一次性费用，而现在几乎可以肯定，我们在产品生命周期内支付的费用远远超过一次性费用。对于技术发展较慢的汽车行业来说，订阅商业模式可以比传统模式从客户那里吸走更多的钱只是时间问题，我对特斯拉成为第一家采用这种策略的公司并不感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p><p><blockquote>我相信皮埃尔·费拉古明白这一点。摘自 SA 关于 FSD 订阅的上述链接新闻：</blockquote></p><p>   One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”  Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p><p><blockquote>New Street Research 分析师 Pierre Ferragu 是特斯拉 FSD 上涨的最大看涨者之一。他认为，到 2030 年，特斯拉将从销售一辆汽车中获得大约 7,000 美元的利润，从销售同一辆车的 FSD 订阅中获得近 23,000 美元的利润。如果Ferragu是正确的，整个行业有望转向自主订阅服务模式。”费拉古的预测与我对基于订阅的商业模式的看法不谋而合。特斯拉的收入和订阅模式很容易变得类似 Adobe，公司绝大部分收入都来自订阅。(通过 Adobe 的业绩，可以很容易地看出这种商业模式是如何运作的（尽管许多其他公司也看到了类似的结果）：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the stock sees results too:</p><p><blockquote>当然，该股也看到了结果：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，费拉古指出，整个行业将转向订阅商业模式，我同意这种观点。有些人可能会说，汽车行业不是软件行业，在汽车方面，最好以合理的价格提供优质产品。但历史会证明这是不正确的：看看通用汽车 (GM) 是如何将福特 (F) 这家以创造持久耐用、高质量汽车为基础的公司推向计划报废范式（每年对每个产品线进行设计升级）行业已经陷入了这种模式。</blockquote></p><p> In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p><p><blockquote>未来，特斯拉的大部分收入将不再来自汽车销售，而是来自订阅。这是大多数行业向前发展的新经济，特斯拉将成为汽车行业这一商业模式的先驱。我们已经看到，软件和电影（迪斯尼和 Netflix 等流媒体服务）是如何有利于盈利的，汽车也应该是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下：特斯拉在 2020 年售出了约 50 万辆汽车。随着柏林、上海和德克萨斯工厂今年的投产，特斯拉应该会在 2021 年额外生产 30 万辆汽车。按照这个速度，到 2022 年底，特斯拉将超过每年 100 万人大关（可能在 150 万人左右）。假设每年生产的汽车中只有一半最终获得 FSD 订阅，那么，la Adobe，订阅收入可以很快接近传统模式的收入——请注意，该模型非常保守，因为它忽略了 2020 年之前生产的所有汽车：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每年 FSD 订阅收入</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>很难说订阅收入何时会超过汽车销售收入，因为该车型存在许多未知数，如特斯拉驾驶员订阅 FSD 的比例，以及 2023 款 Model 3 能否成功打入 “经济适用车 ”市场。然而，订阅收入的增长率是几何级数到指数级的，在未来几年内将达到两位数的百分比，到本十年末很可能成为特斯拉收入来源的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这方面迈出了正确的一步，我们很可能会看到该公司克服困扰汽车行业几十年的障碍。如果是这样，在针对汽车行业的政治政策的情况下，我们可能会看到收益差异较低。例如，FSD 订阅的收入可能不会受到新关税和环境政策的影响，这两个监管来源通常针对汽车本身，而不是所使用的软件。这仍然是推测性的，但到目前为止，我们没有理由怀疑政府会在其碳减排法规或税收政策中专门针对 FSD 订阅。</blockquote></p><p> Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p><p><blockquote>一旦成功推出，FSD订阅可能会成为公司可靠的收入来源。随着订阅收入增长到超过销售收入的程度，投资者将越来越多地将特斯拉视为一项安全的投资。随着订阅收入超过传统销售收入，特斯拉的 IV 应该会下降，而 IV 的下降往往与股价上涨相关。</blockquote></p><p> From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面和股票角度来看，FSD认购公告都是高度看涨的。我认为这是 TSLA 多头在任何重大回调时买入的一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们必须承认，与所有新的商业模式一样，投资者也有固有的风险。虽然订阅模式本身非常有利可图，但特斯拉司机是否会接受FSD订阅仍然是成功采用该模式的关键因素。虽然我相信——由于其过往记录——特斯拉最终将解决其自动驾驶功能的技术问题，但我可以看到 FSD 可能失败的两个主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能无法将 FSD 提高到承诺的 5 级，这可能会导致订户提起集体诉讼。FSD的技术方面超出了我的专业知识，尽管我在人工智能方面的背景告诉我，达到5级是一项巨大的努力。马斯克过去已经成功地完成了巨大的努力，但也许那些比我更了解人工智能的人有充分的理由相信，这是马斯克将要死去的山丘。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>第二，价格点可能过高。每月只需 200 美元，你就可以租到一辆全新的本田汽车，或者你也可以进入特斯拉正在开发的 FSD，作为一种测试仪。随着我们进入 2023 年，这对特斯拉来说应该是重要的一年，售价 25,000 美元的 Model 2 使该公司能够接触到新的客户群体，我们需要重新考虑每月 200 美元的订阅是否会吸引普通特斯拉用户群。从长远来看，定价过高的订阅模式很容易固定，因此不应被视为牛市论点的巨大风险，但过高的价格可能会阻碍特斯拉在汽车行业率先实施订阅模式所需的初始市场渗透。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Bullishness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术看涨</b></blockquote></p><p> From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，特斯拉看起来也很乐观。虽然与过去几年相比，特斯拉经常被认为定价过高，但它并没有做出不符合该股特征的走势。最近的走势模式实际上看起来很像 2020 年初，就在大规模反弹之前：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p><p><blockquote>一旦你控制了交易日，走势看起来相对保守。它是关于给定季度的中位数变动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p><p><blockquote>如果您将此推断到 200 个交易日，您会发现 TSLA 往往会再上涨 10%，波动性相当平均。2020 年的运动仅在规模上是一个异常值；这种模式本身与特斯拉通常的年度走势并没有太大区别：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉进入盈利阶段，一份令人印象深刻的盈利报告可能会给我们带来类似的上涨趋势。当然，在收益上玩 TSLA 是相当有风险的，这就是为什么我们在我的收益交易组（暴露收益）中通常不会在收益上玩 TSLA。因此，我建议那些对 TSLA 感兴趣的人在 FSD 订阅消息后买入，因为这是一个看涨的基本面催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权策略</b></blockquote></p><p> If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果您正在玩期权，您可能希望等到收益之后，这样您就不会面临波动性崩溃（期权 IV 迅速下跌，从而降低了多头期权的价值，因为多头期权也是多头织女星）。不过，如果您想采取期权策略来对冲收益风险，我建议您这样做。我假设你持有 100 股 TSLA 股票，从长远来看，这是一种额外利润的对冲方式：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li>  <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li> </ol> Net credit: $7000</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>7 月 30 日卖出 1x 700 美元看跌期权</li><li>购买 2 倍 7 月 30 日 650 美元看跌期权</li></ol>净信用：7000 美元</blockquote></p><p> This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个不稳定的策略，这意味着它允许我们在任何一方都获利。主要风险是特斯拉是否盘整，7 月份剩余时间的交易价格严格在 650 美元至 700 美元之间。否则，我们将在任何一方获利，要么通过下行时的净多头看跌，要么通过股票加上从多头策略中获得的信用。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p><p><blockquote>即使您确信 TSLA 不会因盈利而抛售，该策略也会为您带来每 100 股额外 7000 美元的利润。你也有下行保护的附加值。请在评论区告诉我你的想法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉增加的 FSD 订阅大大提高了公司的最大收入潜力。事实证明，订阅服务可以快速而彻底改变公司的主要收入来源，并可以轻松地将特斯拉变成一家软件公司，而不是一家汽车公司。因此，我们需要考虑特斯拉进入电动汽车市场只是该公司的开始，特斯拉的财务未来在于其 FSD 服务。如果是这样，我们就低估了这家公司，就像我们用电动汽车的眼光来判断一家软件公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p><p><blockquote>由于 FSD 的前景，我从长远来看非常看好 TSLA。短期内，我认为技术面暗示着向上波动。有了 7 月 26 日的财报，你可能想对冲特斯拉波动性带来的下行空间。但总体而言，即使出现短期回调，以这个价格做多特斯拉也可能是一个有利可图的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175108896","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.\nTechnically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.\nI recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.\nAnd today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.\nSubscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model\nSoftware – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.\nI believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:\n\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n\nFerragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):\n\nOf course, the stock sees results too:\n\nImportantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.\nIn the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.\nConsider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:\nRevenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIt is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.\nTesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.\nOnce successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.\nFrom both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.\nYet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.\nFirst, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.\nSecond, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.\nTechnical Bullishness\nFrom a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nOnce you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nIf you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nWith TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.\nOptions Strategy\nIf you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:\n\nSell 1x Jul 30 $700 put\nBuy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts\n\nNet credit: $7000\nThis is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.\nEven if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.\nConclusion\nTesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.\nI am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800619655,"gmtCreate":1627297065277,"gmtModify":1633766419187,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wat NASA do then?","listText":"Wat NASA do then?","text":"Wat NASA do then?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800619655","repostId":"2153334679","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177223992,"gmtCreate":1627225995116,"gmtModify":1633767046738,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can't stand video games","listText":"Can't stand video games","text":"Can't stand video games","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177223992","repostId":"2153829859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177229919,"gmtCreate":1627225927531,"gmtModify":1633767047656,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Prolly cos of greedy tutors taking advantage of tiger parents","listText":"Prolly cos of greedy tutors taking advantage of tiger parents","text":"Prolly cos of greedy tutors taking advantage of tiger parents","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177229919","repostId":"2153330936","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177267439,"gmtCreate":1627225797821,"gmtModify":1633767048994,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177267439","repostId":"2153936352","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175202524,"gmtCreate":1627031863268,"gmtModify":1633768617920,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bec tutoring is causing a lot of pain, like doctors fees","listText":"Bec tutoring is causing a lot of pain, like doctors fees","text":"Bec tutoring is causing a lot of pain, like doctors fees","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175202524","repostId":"2153600177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":175208844,"gmtCreate":1627031717488,"gmtModify":1633768619326,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Overjoyed over a little.","listText":"Overjoyed over a little.","text":"Overjoyed over a little.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175208844","repostId":"1164478982","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801376343,"gmtCreate":1627485247982,"gmtModify":1631885102675,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to try cheap coffee.","listText":"Time to try cheap coffee.","text":"Time to try cheap coffee.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801376343","repostId":"1112939298","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112939298","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627484367,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112939298?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 22:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么其股价下跌。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112939298","media":"Barrons","summary":"Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s clo","content":"<p>Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>尽管星巴克在周二收盘后公布的财报好于预期，但其股价仍在下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks&nbsp;reported non-GAAP per-share earnings of $1.01 on $7.5 billion in revenue, a record. Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $0.77 on $7.3 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克公布的非 GAAP 每股收益为 1.01 美元，营收为 75 亿美元，创下历史新高。分析师预测每股收益为 0.77 美元，营收为 73 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Despite beating consensus revenue and earnings targets, Starbucks stock is down 3%, to $122.30.</p><p><blockquote>尽管超出了普遍的收入和盈利目标，星巴克股价仍下跌 3%，至 122.30 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Driven by an 84% increase in same-store sales in America, the global coffee giant reported an overall increase in comparable-store sales of 73% relative to the third quarter last year. Indeed, brand loyalty remains strong, especially in the U.S. where 90-day active&nbsp;members of the Starbucks Rewards loyalty program&nbsp;increased 48% year-over-year and now account for 51% of all spending in U.S. stores–up 8% from pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote>在美国同店销售额增长 84% 的推动下，这家全球咖啡巨头报告称，与去年第三季度相比，同店销售额整体增长了 73%。事实上，品牌忠诚度依然强劲，尤其是在美国，星巴克奖励忠诚度计划的 90 天活跃会员同比增长 48%，目前占美国门店所有支出的 51%，比大流行前的水平增长了 8%。</blockquote></p><p> In a statement, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson told investors “Starbucks delivered record performance in the third quarter, demonstrating powerful momentum beyond recovery. Our ability to move with speed and agility and to be out in front of shifting customer behaviors has helped further differentiate Starbucks, positioning us well for this moment.”</p><p><blockquote>星巴克首席执行官凯文-约翰逊（Kevin Johnson）在一份声明中告诉投资者：“星巴克在第三季度取得了创纪录的业绩，展现出了复苏之外的强劲势头。我们能够快速灵活地行动，并在不断变化的顾客行为面前保持领先地位，这有助于星巴克进一步脱颖而出，使我们在这一时刻处于有利地位。”</blockquote></p><p> The strong results have prompted management to raise the company’s 2021 earnings per share outlook from $2.90-$3.00 to $3.20-$3.25.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的业绩促使管理层将公司 2021 年的每股收益预期从 2.90-3.00 美元上调至 3.20-3.25 美元。</blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call, analysts were keen to hear about management’s outlook on China, as they expressed concerns about consumer pushback against U.S. brands in the region. However, Johnson was quick to dispel the concerns, commenting that there hasn’t been a&nbsp;geopolitical event in China&nbsp;that has impacted them in the past couple of years, and he doesn’t foresee that happening as long as they continue taking care of their partners and customers.</p><p><blockquote>在财报看涨期权上，分析师们渴望听到管理层对中国的展望，因为他们对消费者在该地区抵制美国品牌表示担忧。不过，约翰逊很快打消了人们的担忧，他评论说，在过去几年里，中国没有发生过对他们产生影响的地缘政治事件，只要他们继续照顾好自己的合作伙伴和客户，他预计这种情况就不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> While fears about&nbsp;rising labor costs&nbsp;did not materialize since operating margins were higher than last quarter and the corresponding period last year, analysts were expecting better performance in international markets. Cowen analyst, Andrew Charles, stated that Starbucks’s 41% change in comparable-store sales relative to the same period last year fell short of the 62% growth he anticipated to see. Nonetheless, the impressive numbers from the U.S. were enough for Charles to raise his price target from $126 to $135. Likewise, Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull had expected international comparable store sales to increase 66%. O’Cull further noted that management offered guidance, which implied roughly flat two-year international comparable store sales.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于营业利润率高于上一季度和去年同期，对劳动力成本上升的担忧并未成为现实，但分析师预计国际市场的表现会更好。Cowen 分析师安德鲁-查尔斯（Andrew Charles）表示，星巴克同店销售额与去年同期相比变化了 41%，低于他预期的 62% 的增长率。尽管如此，美国令人印象深刻的数字足以让查尔斯将目标价从 126 美元提高到 135 美元。同样，Stifel 分析师 Chris O'Cull 曾预计国际可比商店销售额将增长 66%。O'Cull 进一步指出，管理层提供了指导意见，这意味着两年国际可比门店销售额大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> The question to investors remains whether strong U.S. growth is enough to keep on offsetting slower international growth and push the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的问题仍然是，美国强劲的增长是否足以继续抵消国际增长放缓并推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么其股价下跌。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么其股价下跌。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-28 22:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>尽管星巴克在周二收盘后公布的财报好于预期，但其股价仍在下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks&nbsp;reported non-GAAP per-share earnings of $1.01 on $7.5 billion in revenue, a record. Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $0.77 on $7.3 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克公布的非 GAAP 每股收益为 1.01 美元，营收为 75 亿美元，创下历史新高。分析师预测每股收益为 0.77 美元，营收为 73 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Despite beating consensus revenue and earnings targets, Starbucks stock is down 3%, to $122.30.</p><p><blockquote>尽管超出了普遍的收入和盈利目标，星巴克股价仍下跌 3%，至 122.30 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Driven by an 84% increase in same-store sales in America, the global coffee giant reported an overall increase in comparable-store sales of 73% relative to the third quarter last year. Indeed, brand loyalty remains strong, especially in the U.S. where 90-day active&nbsp;members of the Starbucks Rewards loyalty program&nbsp;increased 48% year-over-year and now account for 51% of all spending in U.S. stores–up 8% from pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote>在美国同店销售额增长 84% 的推动下，这家全球咖啡巨头报告称，与去年第三季度相比，同店销售额整体增长了 73%。事实上，品牌忠诚度依然强劲，尤其是在美国，星巴克奖励忠诚度计划的 90 天活跃会员同比增长 48%，目前占美国门店所有支出的 51%，比大流行前的水平增长了 8%。</blockquote></p><p> In a statement, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson told investors “Starbucks delivered record performance in the third quarter, demonstrating powerful momentum beyond recovery. Our ability to move with speed and agility and to be out in front of shifting customer behaviors has helped further differentiate Starbucks, positioning us well for this moment.”</p><p><blockquote>星巴克首席执行官凯文-约翰逊（Kevin Johnson）在一份声明中告诉投资者：“星巴克在第三季度取得了创纪录的业绩，展现出了复苏之外的强劲势头。我们能够快速灵活地行动，并在不断变化的顾客行为面前保持领先地位，这有助于星巴克进一步脱颖而出，使我们在这一时刻处于有利地位。”</blockquote></p><p> The strong results have prompted management to raise the company’s 2021 earnings per share outlook from $2.90-$3.00 to $3.20-$3.25.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的业绩促使管理层将公司 2021 年的每股收益预期从 2.90-3.00 美元上调至 3.20-3.25 美元。</blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call, analysts were keen to hear about management’s outlook on China, as they expressed concerns about consumer pushback against U.S. brands in the region. However, Johnson was quick to dispel the concerns, commenting that there hasn’t been a&nbsp;geopolitical event in China&nbsp;that has impacted them in the past couple of years, and he doesn’t foresee that happening as long as they continue taking care of their partners and customers.</p><p><blockquote>在财报看涨期权上，分析师们渴望听到管理层对中国的展望，因为他们对消费者在该地区抵制美国品牌表示担忧。不过，约翰逊很快打消了人们的担忧，他评论说，在过去几年里，中国没有发生过对他们产生影响的地缘政治事件，只要他们继续照顾好自己的合作伙伴和客户，他预计这种情况就不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> While fears about&nbsp;rising labor costs&nbsp;did not materialize since operating margins were higher than last quarter and the corresponding period last year, analysts were expecting better performance in international markets. Cowen analyst, Andrew Charles, stated that Starbucks’s 41% change in comparable-store sales relative to the same period last year fell short of the 62% growth he anticipated to see. Nonetheless, the impressive numbers from the U.S. were enough for Charles to raise his price target from $126 to $135. Likewise, Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull had expected international comparable store sales to increase 66%. O’Cull further noted that management offered guidance, which implied roughly flat two-year international comparable store sales.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于营业利润率高于上一季度和去年同期，对劳动力成本上升的担忧并未成为现实，但分析师预计国际市场的表现会更好。Cowen 分析师安德鲁-查尔斯（Andrew Charles）表示，星巴克同店销售额与去年同期相比变化了 41%，低于他预期的 62% 的增长率。尽管如此，美国令人印象深刻的数字足以让查尔斯将目标价从 126 美元提高到 135 美元。同样，Stifel 分析师 Chris O'Cull 曾预计国际可比商店销售额将增长 66%。O'Cull 进一步指出，管理层提供了指导意见，这意味着两年国际可比门店销售额大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> The question to investors remains whether strong U.S. growth is enough to keep on offsetting slower international growth and push the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的问题仍然是，美国强劲的增长是否足以继续抵消国际增长放缓并推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/starbucks-earnings-stock-51627419105?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/starbucks-earnings-stock-51627419105?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112939298","content_text":"Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s close.\nStarbucks reported non-GAAP per-share earnings of $1.01 on $7.5 billion in revenue, a record. Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $0.77 on $7.3 billion in revenue.\nDespite beating consensus revenue and earnings targets, Starbucks stock is down 3%, to $122.30.\nDriven by an 84% increase in same-store sales in America, the global coffee giant reported an overall increase in comparable-store sales of 73% relative to the third quarter last year. Indeed, brand loyalty remains strong, especially in the U.S. where 90-day active members of the Starbucks Rewards loyalty program increased 48% year-over-year and now account for 51% of all spending in U.S. stores–up 8% from pre-pandemic levels.\nIn a statement, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson told investors “Starbucks delivered record performance in the third quarter, demonstrating powerful momentum beyond recovery. Our ability to move with speed and agility and to be out in front of shifting customer behaviors has helped further differentiate Starbucks, positioning us well for this moment.”\nThe strong results have prompted management to raise the company’s 2021 earnings per share outlook from $2.90-$3.00 to $3.20-$3.25.\nDuring the earnings call, analysts were keen to hear about management’s outlook on China, as they expressed concerns about consumer pushback against U.S. brands in the region. However, Johnson was quick to dispel the concerns, commenting that there hasn’t been a geopolitical event in China that has impacted them in the past couple of years, and he doesn’t foresee that happening as long as they continue taking care of their partners and customers.\nWhile fears about rising labor costs did not materialize since operating margins were higher than last quarter and the corresponding period last year, analysts were expecting better performance in international markets. Cowen analyst, Andrew Charles, stated that Starbucks’s 41% change in comparable-store sales relative to the same period last year fell short of the 62% growth he anticipated to see. Nonetheless, the impressive numbers from the U.S. were enough for Charles to raise his price target from $126 to $135. Likewise, Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull had expected international comparable store sales to increase 66%. O’Cull further noted that management offered guidance, which implied roughly flat two-year international comparable store sales.\nThe question to investors remains whether strong U.S. growth is enough to keep on offsetting slower international growth and push the stock higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173873013,"gmtCreate":1626655181832,"gmtModify":1633925253494,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok will do.","listText":"Ok will do.","text":"Ok will do.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173873013","repostId":"1160548856","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176752702,"gmtCreate":1626917545106,"gmtModify":1633769766436,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Everything is managed.","listText":"Everything is managed.","text":"Everything is managed.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176752702","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144482653,"gmtCreate":1626310346072,"gmtModify":1633928030525,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"They think delta means sleep on","listText":"They think delta means sleep on","text":"They think delta means sleep on","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144482653","repostId":"1158066571","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158066571","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626309470,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1158066571?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 08:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Consumers So Far Completely Undeterred By Delta Variant<blockquote>到目前为止，美国消费者完全没有被德尔塔变异毒株吓倒</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158066571","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Despite the recent jump in Delta variant covid cases in the US, economic data continues to show that","content":"<p>Despite the recent jump in Delta variant covid cases in the US, economic data continues to show that consumers are actively spending on services and remain undeterred despite the media's best efforts to spark a fresh pre-lockdown panic.</p><p><blockquote>尽管最近美国德尔塔变异毒株covid病例激增，但经济数据继续显示，尽管媒体尽最大努力引发新的封锁前恐慌，消费者仍在积极购买服务，并没有被吓倒。</blockquote></p><p> <b>First, a quick update on the current state of the virus in the US.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>首先，快速更新一下美国病毒的现状。</b></blockquote></p><p> Average daily virus cases jumped by 28.3% to 17.4k during the week ending July 9, and the 7-day moving average of virus cases increased to 17.4k during the week ending July 9. This is the highest level since May 31 and a 28.3% increase from the week ending July 2. As BofA note this morning, from July 2 to July 9, forty states have recorded growth in daily cases and states where vaccine rates are lower are experiencing faster case growth. As shown in the chart below, the bank finds that growth in virus cases and&nbsp; vaccination rates at the state level exhibit a negative relationship.</p><p><blockquote>截至7月9日当周，日均病毒病例跃升28.3%，达到17.4k，截至7月9日当周，病毒病例的7天移动平均值增至17.4k。这是自 5 月 31 日以来的最高水平，较截至 7 月 2 日当周上涨 28.3%。正如美国银行今天早上指出的那样，从7月2日到7月9日，40个州的每日病例数有所增长，而疫苗接种率较低的州的病例增长速度更快。如下图所示，世行发现，州一级的病毒病例增长和疫苗接种率呈现负相关关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f8ff33b4322b837d74df703dbe8ecf\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"396\">Along with low vaccine rates, the Delta variant, which is more infectious than earlier strains, has driven the rise in cases of late. Outbreak.info estimates that the variant accounted for 20% of virus cases over the 60 days ending July 7.</p><p><blockquote>除了疫苗接种率低之外，比早期毒株更具传染性的德尔塔变异毒株病毒也导致了晚期病例的增加。Outbreak.info 估计，在截至 7 月 7 日的 60 天内，该变种占病毒病例的 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, vaccine rates have slowed appreciably with the 7-day average of jabs dropping to just about 500k. This was likely due in part to the July 4 holiday; however, shots have been on a downward trend since April.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，疫苗接种率明显放缓，7天平均注射量下降到约50万剂。这可能部分是由于7月4日的假期；然而，自4月份以来，镜头一直呈下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d18acf4b8e419fca5e8c613ab16b4376\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"430\">Regardless, the US remains one of the most vaccinated countries,<b>with 67.7% of its adult population and 88.7% of those 65 and older having received at least one shot to date.</b>This, BofA concedes, should limit the spread of the Delta variant. However, the bank warns that the uneven vaccination rates across states and within states means that there are areas that have little protection against this highly infectious variant. Moreover, the longer the virus lingers the greater the risk for a vaccine-resistant variant to develop. In short: whether be decree or due to simple population dynamics, Covid-19 could be with us for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国仍然是接种疫苗最多的国家之一，<b>迄今为止，67.7%的成年人和88.7%的65岁及以上人群至少接种过一次疫苗。</b>美国银行承认，这应该会限制德尔塔变异毒株的传播。然而，该银行警告说，各州和州内的疫苗接种率不均，这意味着有些地区对这种高传染性变种几乎没有保护。此外，病毒停留的时间越长，产生疫苗抗性变异的风险就越大。简而言之：无论是法令还是简单的人口动态，在可预见的未来，新冠肺炎都可能与我们同在。</blockquote></p><p> In light of this data,<b>BofA thinks we will continue to see a surge in cases over the near-term, but does not expect restrictions on activity to be broadly imposed again.</b>This means that while the downside risk to the economy is relatively low, the bank's economists will continue to reevaluate this view as things can change in a matter of days when it comes to the virus.</p><p><blockquote>根据这些数据，<b>美国银行认为，短期内病例数量将继续激增，但预计不会再次广泛实施活动限制。</b>这意味着，虽然经济的下行风险相对较低，但该银行的经济学家将继续重新评估这一观点，因为就病毒而言，情况可能会在几天内发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Economic activity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经济活动</b></blockquote></p><p> The NY Fed weekly economic index came in at 9.8% yoy in the week ending July 10, down a bit the 10.0% reading in the prior week.<b>Looking at 2Q, the weekly index from the Fed predicts 2Q growth of 11.1% yoy, which would imply 2.9% qoq saar. This would be a significant deceleration from 6.4% in 1Q</b>and is below current consensus forecasts of 10.0% qoq saar or 13.0% yoy. That said, the NY fed index has tended to undershoot actual growth.</p><p><blockquote>截至 7 月 10 日当周，纽约联储每周经济指数同比增长 9.8%，略低于前一周的 10.0%。<b>展望第二季度，美联储每周指数预测第二季度同比增长 11.1%，这意味着环比增长 2.9%。这将比第一季度的 6.4% 大幅放缓</b>低于目前普遍预测的环比 saar 10.0% 或同比 13.0%。也就是说，纽约联储指数往往低于实际增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b7d3b219d45a1ccc472990cd6d3574\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"437\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Consumer activity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消费者活动</b></blockquote></p><p> According to BofA,<b>consumers’ appetite for services has so far been undeterred by the rise in cases.</b>Dining out and air travel both increased by 1.2% and 2.9% respectively during the week ending July 12. Movie box office receipts also remained elevated as F9: the Fast saga was the top earner for a second consecutive week.&nbsp; Here are the details:</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，<b>到目前为止，消费者对服务的胃口并没有因为病例的增加而受到影响。</b>截至7月12日当周，外出就餐和航空旅行分别增长了1.2%和2.9%。电影票房收入也保持高位，《F9：速度传奇》连续第二周成为票房冠军。详情如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Time spent at home increased during the week ending July 9 given the July 4 holiday. Similarly, visitors to parks surged by 15.7% over the week and visitors to workplaces fell 7.7%. That said, one should ignore these big moves due to the holiday.</li>  <li>The 7-day average of daily air passenger traffic increased by 2.9% to 2.032M during the week ending July 12. This was 79.3% of traffic during the same week in 2019, down from 81.1% in the prior week. Leisure travel has rebounded quickly, while corporate and international travel continue to lag. That said, BofA strategists noted that corporate travel is trending higher.<b>International travel remains depressed, and the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on international travel for the foreseeable future.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161637f140c4839c642d16e00d49efbf\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"793\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于7月4日假期，在截至7月9日的一周内，在家度过的时间有所增加。同样，本周公园游客激增15.7%，工作场所游客下降7.7%。也就是说，由于假期，人们应该忽略这些大动作。</li><li>截至7月12日当周，7天平均每日航空客运量增长2.9%，达到203.2万人次。这占2019年同一周流量的79.3%，低于前一周的81.1%。休闲旅游迅速反弹，而商务和国际旅游继续滞后。尽管如此，美国银行策略师指出，商务旅行呈上升趋势。<b>国际旅行仍然低迷，在可预见的未来，德尔塔变异毒株可能会限制国际旅行。</b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Seated diners on the OpenTable network were down 7.8% from 2019 during the week ending July 12. This was up 1.2% from the prior week as weekly increases in the South and West offset declines in the Northeast and Midwest. We continue to expect dining out to approach 2019 levels, but nascent concerns over the Delta variant could start to affect consumers’ willingness to ear out even if they are vaccinated.</li>  <li><b>Motor gasoline demand for the week ending July 2 topped its 2017-2019 weekly average for the first time since the start of the pandemic. This was likely due in part to seasonal effects from the holiday.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe113fa6aab43c176be77814a095132\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"380\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至 7 月 12 日当周，OpenTable 网络上的就餐人数比 2019 年下降了 7.8%。这比前一周上升了 1.2%，因为南部和西部的每周增长抵消了东北部和中西部的下降。我们继续预计外出就餐将接近 2019 年的水平，但对德尔塔变异毒株的新担忧可能会开始影响消费者即使接种了疫苗也愿意倾听。</li><li><b>自疫情开始以来，截至 7 月 2 日当周的车用汽油需求首次超过 2017-2019 年每周平均水平。这可能部分是由于假期的季节性影响。</b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Movie box office receipts remained elevated but declined from last week’s pandemic high. Receipts fell to $115M from $140M with<i>F9: The Fast Saga</i>remaining the number 1 release. Average receipts per film are running above pre-pandemic levels due to the limited number of movie releases. This suggests demand is strong but supply has some catching up to do.</li> </ul> <b>Labor market</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电影票房收入保持高位，但比上周的大流行病高点有所下降。收入从 1.4 亿美元降至 1.15 亿美元<i>F9：快速传奇</i>仍然是头号版本。由于电影上映数量有限，每部电影的平均收入高于疫情前的水平。这表明需求强劲，但供应仍需迎头赶上。</li></ul><b>劳动力市场</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The employment data tracked by BofA continues to be affected by the holidays as data from Homebase and the American staffing index are only available through July 11 and 3 respectively. Here are some more details:</li>  <li>The data on small business employment from Homebase remains affected by the July 4 holiday as the latest available data are only through July 11, and we look at the 7-day moving average to smooth through week-day noise. Next week the data will be more informative as we’ll have the first estimate of the employment figures for the July payroll week.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88f4b28837affceda16db7940d9ada5\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"422\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国银行跟踪的就业数据继续受到假期的影响，因为 Homebase 和美国人员配备指数的数据分别仅在 7 月 11 日和 3 日提供。以下是更多详细信息：</li><li>Homebase 的小企业就业数据仍然受到 7 月 4 日假期的影响，因为最新可用数据仅截至 7 月 11 日，我们查看 7 天移动平均线以平滑工作日噪音。下周的数据将更加翔实，因为我们将对 7 月份公布的就业数据进行首次估算。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Initial jobless claims were little changed at 373k in the week ending July 3rd. It’s possible the holidays added a little noise to the data and could also distort the coming release. Additionally, auto companies forgoing typical summer production slowdowns could also affect the data.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9e87a0f799e8f644b34bb86bb8b162\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"427\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至 7 月 3 日当周，首次申请失业救济人数几乎没有变化，为 37.3 万人。假期可能会给数据增加一些噪音，也可能会扭曲即将发布的数据。此外，汽车公司放弃典型的夏季生产放缓也可能影响数据。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Through the first 27 weeks of the year, high propensity business applications are up 40.5% from the same period in 2019. This should be a positive source of labor demand over the near-term as new businesses start hiring. Additionally, it could also help drive productivity.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f231501772b070b9b56c7d72bbdf669\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"410\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>今年前27周，高倾向业务申请比2019年同期增长了40.5%。随着新企业开始招聘，这应该是短期内劳动力需求的积极来源。此外，它还有助于提高生产力。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The American Staffing index recorded an 8.4% increase from two years ago during the week ending July 3rd. It’s likely that the outsized increase is a result of the timing of the July 4 holiday in 2019 vs. 2021. That said, the index continues to be a positive signal for labor demand and hiring activity in the temporary help sector.</li> </ul> <b>Industrial activity</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在截至7月3日的一周内，美国员工指数比两年前增长了8.4%。大幅增长很可能是 2019 年与 2021 年 7 月 4 日假期的时间不同造成的。尽管如此，该指数仍然是临时帮助行业劳动力需求和招聘活动的积极信号。</li></ul><b>工业活动</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Railroad traffic rebounded with and 10.9% increase during the week ending July 3, more than reversing the 5.0% drop in the prior week. The rebound was driven by a surge in carloads of coal, motor vehicle and parts, and chemicals.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f288d1140c002ec49a1e54e32cad1a\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"386\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至 7 月 3 日当周，铁路运输量反弹，增长 10.9%，超过了前一周 5.0% 的跌幅。反弹是由煤炭、汽车和零部件以及化学品的货运量激增推动的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In the week ending July 3, raw steel production rose by 1.0% and was little changed in the week ending July 10. It is currently now just 2.3% shy of its pre-pandemic average.</li>  <li>The oil and gas rig count increased by four to 479 during the week ending July 9. Two of the four new rigs were oil rigs, bringing the count up to 378. This is well below the pre-pandemic average despite oil prices running at elevated levels on the back of strong demand.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a74ffea4fe7cff1d8d3a478c0b77e6b\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"391\"><b>Real Estate</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，粗钢产量增长1.0%，截至7月10日当周变化不大。目前仅比大流行前的平均水平低2.3%。</li><li>截至 7 月 9 日当周，石油和天然气钻井平台数量增加了 4 座，达到 479 座。四座新钻井平台中有两座是石油钻井平台，使钻井平台数量达到 378 座。尽管由于需求强劲，油价处于较高水平，但这仍远低于大流行前的平均水平。</li></ul><b>房地产</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Mortgage purchase applications continue to slide, declining by 1.1% in the week ending July 2. Limited supply continues to be cited as a key reason for the decline in sales, although the real reason is soaring prices and lack of affordability. Still after being a strong positive early on in the pandemic recovery, the residential sector is becoming a drag on growth.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9e12cdd92b67464ab39b619d462364\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"389\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>抵押贷款购买申请继续下滑，截至 7 月 2 日当周下降 1.1%。供应有限仍然被认为是销量下降的主要原因，尽管真正的原因是价格飙升和缺乏负担能力。尽管在疫情复苏初期表现强劲，但住宅行业正在成为增长的拖累。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Office occupancy levels fell during the week ending July 7 due to the July 4 holiday. Across 10 major metro areas, average office occupancy fell by 1.7ppt to 31.0%. This is likely to reverse in the following week as the holiday effects fade.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e098a794f4646a15d20287ea186a822\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"396\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于7月4日假期，截至7月7日的一周，办公室入住率下降。10个主要都会区的平均写字楼入住率下降1.7个百分点至31.0%。随着假期影响的消退，这种情况可能会在下周逆转。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In short, the media is doing all in its power to drum up panic for what appears to be another upcoming stimmy-triggering lockdown, but at least so far it is failing to impact consumer behavior.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，媒体正在竭尽全力煽动恐慌，这似乎是另一场即将到来的引发刺激的封锁，但至少到目前为止，它未能影响消费者的行为。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Consumers So Far Completely Undeterred By Delta Variant<blockquote>到目前为止，美国消费者完全没有被德尔塔变异毒株吓倒</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Consumers So Far Completely Undeterred By Delta Variant<blockquote>到目前为止，美国消费者完全没有被德尔塔变异毒株吓倒</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 08:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Despite the recent jump in Delta variant covid cases in the US, economic data continues to show that consumers are actively spending on services and remain undeterred despite the media's best efforts to spark a fresh pre-lockdown panic.</p><p><blockquote>尽管最近美国德尔塔变异毒株covid病例激增，但经济数据继续显示，尽管媒体尽最大努力引发新的封锁前恐慌，消费者仍在积极购买服务，并没有被吓倒。</blockquote></p><p> <b>First, a quick update on the current state of the virus in the US.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>首先，快速更新一下美国病毒的现状。</b></blockquote></p><p> Average daily virus cases jumped by 28.3% to 17.4k during the week ending July 9, and the 7-day moving average of virus cases increased to 17.4k during the week ending July 9. This is the highest level since May 31 and a 28.3% increase from the week ending July 2. As BofA note this morning, from July 2 to July 9, forty states have recorded growth in daily cases and states where vaccine rates are lower are experiencing faster case growth. As shown in the chart below, the bank finds that growth in virus cases and&nbsp; vaccination rates at the state level exhibit a negative relationship.</p><p><blockquote>截至7月9日当周，日均病毒病例跃升28.3%，达到17.4k，截至7月9日当周，病毒病例的7天移动平均值增至17.4k。这是自 5 月 31 日以来的最高水平，较截至 7 月 2 日当周上涨 28.3%。正如美国银行今天早上指出的那样，从7月2日到7月9日，40个州的每日病例数有所增长，而疫苗接种率较低的州的病例增长速度更快。如下图所示，世行发现，州一级的病毒病例增长和疫苗接种率呈现负相关关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f8ff33b4322b837d74df703dbe8ecf\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"396\">Along with low vaccine rates, the Delta variant, which is more infectious than earlier strains, has driven the rise in cases of late. Outbreak.info estimates that the variant accounted for 20% of virus cases over the 60 days ending July 7.</p><p><blockquote>除了疫苗接种率低之外，比早期毒株更具传染性的德尔塔变异毒株病毒也导致了晚期病例的增加。Outbreak.info 估计，在截至 7 月 7 日的 60 天内，该变种占病毒病例的 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, vaccine rates have slowed appreciably with the 7-day average of jabs dropping to just about 500k. This was likely due in part to the July 4 holiday; however, shots have been on a downward trend since April.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，疫苗接种率明显放缓，7天平均注射量下降到约50万剂。这可能部分是由于7月4日的假期；然而，自4月份以来，镜头一直呈下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d18acf4b8e419fca5e8c613ab16b4376\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"430\">Regardless, the US remains one of the most vaccinated countries,<b>with 67.7% of its adult population and 88.7% of those 65 and older having received at least one shot to date.</b>This, BofA concedes, should limit the spread of the Delta variant. However, the bank warns that the uneven vaccination rates across states and within states means that there are areas that have little protection against this highly infectious variant. Moreover, the longer the virus lingers the greater the risk for a vaccine-resistant variant to develop. In short: whether be decree or due to simple population dynamics, Covid-19 could be with us for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国仍然是接种疫苗最多的国家之一，<b>迄今为止，67.7%的成年人和88.7%的65岁及以上人群至少接种过一次疫苗。</b>美国银行承认，这应该会限制德尔塔变异毒株的传播。然而，该银行警告说，各州和州内的疫苗接种率不均，这意味着有些地区对这种高传染性变种几乎没有保护。此外，病毒停留的时间越长，产生疫苗抗性变异的风险就越大。简而言之：无论是法令还是简单的人口动态，在可预见的未来，新冠肺炎都可能与我们同在。</blockquote></p><p> In light of this data,<b>BofA thinks we will continue to see a surge in cases over the near-term, but does not expect restrictions on activity to be broadly imposed again.</b>This means that while the downside risk to the economy is relatively low, the bank's economists will continue to reevaluate this view as things can change in a matter of days when it comes to the virus.</p><p><blockquote>根据这些数据，<b>美国银行认为，短期内病例数量将继续激增，但预计不会再次广泛实施活动限制。</b>这意味着，虽然经济的下行风险相对较低，但该银行的经济学家将继续重新评估这一观点，因为就病毒而言，情况可能会在几天内发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Economic activity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经济活动</b></blockquote></p><p> The NY Fed weekly economic index came in at 9.8% yoy in the week ending July 10, down a bit the 10.0% reading in the prior week.<b>Looking at 2Q, the weekly index from the Fed predicts 2Q growth of 11.1% yoy, which would imply 2.9% qoq saar. This would be a significant deceleration from 6.4% in 1Q</b>and is below current consensus forecasts of 10.0% qoq saar or 13.0% yoy. That said, the NY fed index has tended to undershoot actual growth.</p><p><blockquote>截至 7 月 10 日当周，纽约联储每周经济指数同比增长 9.8%，略低于前一周的 10.0%。<b>展望第二季度，美联储每周指数预测第二季度同比增长 11.1%，这意味着环比增长 2.9%。这将比第一季度的 6.4% 大幅放缓</b>低于目前普遍预测的环比 saar 10.0% 或同比 13.0%。也就是说，纽约联储指数往往低于实际增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b7d3b219d45a1ccc472990cd6d3574\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"437\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Consumer activity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消费者活动</b></blockquote></p><p> According to BofA,<b>consumers’ appetite for services has so far been undeterred by the rise in cases.</b>Dining out and air travel both increased by 1.2% and 2.9% respectively during the week ending July 12. Movie box office receipts also remained elevated as F9: the Fast saga was the top earner for a second consecutive week.&nbsp; Here are the details:</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，<b>到目前为止，消费者对服务的胃口并没有因为病例的增加而受到影响。</b>截至7月12日当周，外出就餐和航空旅行分别增长了1.2%和2.9%。电影票房收入也保持高位，《F9：速度传奇》连续第二周成为票房冠军。详情如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Time spent at home increased during the week ending July 9 given the July 4 holiday. Similarly, visitors to parks surged by 15.7% over the week and visitors to workplaces fell 7.7%. That said, one should ignore these big moves due to the holiday.</li>  <li>The 7-day average of daily air passenger traffic increased by 2.9% to 2.032M during the week ending July 12. This was 79.3% of traffic during the same week in 2019, down from 81.1% in the prior week. Leisure travel has rebounded quickly, while corporate and international travel continue to lag. That said, BofA strategists noted that corporate travel is trending higher.<b>International travel remains depressed, and the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on international travel for the foreseeable future.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161637f140c4839c642d16e00d49efbf\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"793\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于7月4日假期，在截至7月9日的一周内，在家度过的时间有所增加。同样，本周公园游客激增15.7%，工作场所游客下降7.7%。也就是说，由于假期，人们应该忽略这些大动作。</li><li>截至7月12日当周，7天平均每日航空客运量增长2.9%，达到203.2万人次。这占2019年同一周流量的79.3%，低于前一周的81.1%。休闲旅游迅速反弹，而商务和国际旅游继续滞后。尽管如此，美国银行策略师指出，商务旅行呈上升趋势。<b>国际旅行仍然低迷，在可预见的未来，德尔塔变异毒株可能会限制国际旅行。</b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Seated diners on the OpenTable network were down 7.8% from 2019 during the week ending July 12. This was up 1.2% from the prior week as weekly increases in the South and West offset declines in the Northeast and Midwest. We continue to expect dining out to approach 2019 levels, but nascent concerns over the Delta variant could start to affect consumers’ willingness to ear out even if they are vaccinated.</li>  <li><b>Motor gasoline demand for the week ending July 2 topped its 2017-2019 weekly average for the first time since the start of the pandemic. This was likely due in part to seasonal effects from the holiday.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe113fa6aab43c176be77814a095132\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"380\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至 7 月 12 日当周，OpenTable 网络上的就餐人数比 2019 年下降了 7.8%。这比前一周上升了 1.2%，因为南部和西部的每周增长抵消了东北部和中西部的下降。我们继续预计外出就餐将接近 2019 年的水平，但对德尔塔变异毒株的新担忧可能会开始影响消费者即使接种了疫苗也愿意倾听。</li><li><b>自疫情开始以来，截至 7 月 2 日当周的车用汽油需求首次超过 2017-2019 年每周平均水平。这可能部分是由于假期的季节性影响。</b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Movie box office receipts remained elevated but declined from last week’s pandemic high. Receipts fell to $115M from $140M with<i>F9: The Fast Saga</i>remaining the number 1 release. Average receipts per film are running above pre-pandemic levels due to the limited number of movie releases. This suggests demand is strong but supply has some catching up to do.</li> </ul> <b>Labor market</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电影票房收入保持高位，但比上周的大流行病高点有所下降。收入从 1.4 亿美元降至 1.15 亿美元<i>F9：快速传奇</i>仍然是头号版本。由于电影上映数量有限，每部电影的平均收入高于疫情前的水平。这表明需求强劲，但供应仍需迎头赶上。</li></ul><b>劳动力市场</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The employment data tracked by BofA continues to be affected by the holidays as data from Homebase and the American staffing index are only available through July 11 and 3 respectively. Here are some more details:</li>  <li>The data on small business employment from Homebase remains affected by the July 4 holiday as the latest available data are only through July 11, and we look at the 7-day moving average to smooth through week-day noise. Next week the data will be more informative as we’ll have the first estimate of the employment figures for the July payroll week.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88f4b28837affceda16db7940d9ada5\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"422\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国银行跟踪的就业数据继续受到假期的影响，因为 Homebase 和美国人员配备指数的数据分别仅在 7 月 11 日和 3 日提供。以下是更多详细信息：</li><li>Homebase 的小企业就业数据仍然受到 7 月 4 日假期的影响，因为最新可用数据仅截至 7 月 11 日，我们查看 7 天移动平均线以平滑工作日噪音。下周的数据将更加翔实，因为我们将对 7 月份公布的就业数据进行首次估算。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Initial jobless claims were little changed at 373k in the week ending July 3rd. It’s possible the holidays added a little noise to the data and could also distort the coming release. Additionally, auto companies forgoing typical summer production slowdowns could also affect the data.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9e87a0f799e8f644b34bb86bb8b162\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"427\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至 7 月 3 日当周，首次申请失业救济人数几乎没有变化，为 37.3 万人。假期可能会给数据增加一些噪音，也可能会扭曲即将发布的数据。此外，汽车公司放弃典型的夏季生产放缓也可能影响数据。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Through the first 27 weeks of the year, high propensity business applications are up 40.5% from the same period in 2019. This should be a positive source of labor demand over the near-term as new businesses start hiring. Additionally, it could also help drive productivity.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f231501772b070b9b56c7d72bbdf669\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"410\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>今年前27周，高倾向业务申请比2019年同期增长了40.5%。随着新企业开始招聘，这应该是短期内劳动力需求的积极来源。此外，它还有助于提高生产力。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The American Staffing index recorded an 8.4% increase from two years ago during the week ending July 3rd. It’s likely that the outsized increase is a result of the timing of the July 4 holiday in 2019 vs. 2021. That said, the index continues to be a positive signal for labor demand and hiring activity in the temporary help sector.</li> </ul> <b>Industrial activity</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在截至7月3日的一周内，美国员工指数比两年前增长了8.4%。大幅增长很可能是 2019 年与 2021 年 7 月 4 日假期的时间不同造成的。尽管如此，该指数仍然是临时帮助行业劳动力需求和招聘活动的积极信号。</li></ul><b>工业活动</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Railroad traffic rebounded with and 10.9% increase during the week ending July 3, more than reversing the 5.0% drop in the prior week. The rebound was driven by a surge in carloads of coal, motor vehicle and parts, and chemicals.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f288d1140c002ec49a1e54e32cad1a\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"386\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至 7 月 3 日当周，铁路运输量反弹，增长 10.9%，超过了前一周 5.0% 的跌幅。反弹是由煤炭、汽车和零部件以及化学品的货运量激增推动的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In the week ending July 3, raw steel production rose by 1.0% and was little changed in the week ending July 10. It is currently now just 2.3% shy of its pre-pandemic average.</li>  <li>The oil and gas rig count increased by four to 479 during the week ending July 9. Two of the four new rigs were oil rigs, bringing the count up to 378. This is well below the pre-pandemic average despite oil prices running at elevated levels on the back of strong demand.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a74ffea4fe7cff1d8d3a478c0b77e6b\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"391\"><b>Real Estate</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，粗钢产量增长1.0%，截至7月10日当周变化不大。目前仅比大流行前的平均水平低2.3%。</li><li>截至 7 月 9 日当周，石油和天然气钻井平台数量增加了 4 座，达到 479 座。四座新钻井平台中有两座是石油钻井平台，使钻井平台数量达到 378 座。尽管由于需求强劲，油价处于较高水平，但这仍远低于大流行前的平均水平。</li></ul><b>房地产</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Mortgage purchase applications continue to slide, declining by 1.1% in the week ending July 2. Limited supply continues to be cited as a key reason for the decline in sales, although the real reason is soaring prices and lack of affordability. Still after being a strong positive early on in the pandemic recovery, the residential sector is becoming a drag on growth.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9e12cdd92b67464ab39b619d462364\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"389\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>抵押贷款购买申请继续下滑，截至 7 月 2 日当周下降 1.1%。供应有限仍然被认为是销量下降的主要原因，尽管真正的原因是价格飙升和缺乏负担能力。尽管在疫情复苏初期表现强劲，但住宅行业正在成为增长的拖累。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Office occupancy levels fell during the week ending July 7 due to the July 4 holiday. Across 10 major metro areas, average office occupancy fell by 1.7ppt to 31.0%. This is likely to reverse in the following week as the holiday effects fade.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e098a794f4646a15d20287ea186a822\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"396\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于7月4日假期，截至7月7日的一周，办公室入住率下降。10个主要都会区的平均写字楼入住率下降1.7个百分点至31.0%。随着假期影响的消退，这种情况可能会在下周逆转。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In short, the media is doing all in its power to drum up panic for what appears to be another upcoming stimmy-triggering lockdown, but at least so far it is failing to impact consumer behavior.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，媒体正在竭尽全力煽动恐慌，这似乎是另一场即将到来的引发刺激的封锁，但至少到目前为止，它未能影响消费者的行为。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-consumers-so-far-completely-undeterred-delta-variant\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-consumers-so-far-completely-undeterred-delta-variant","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158066571","content_text":"Despite the recent jump in Delta variant covid cases in the US, economic data continues to show that consumers are actively spending on services and remain undeterred despite the media's best efforts to spark a fresh pre-lockdown panic.\nFirst, a quick update on the current state of the virus in the US.\nAverage daily virus cases jumped by 28.3% to 17.4k during the week ending July 9, and the 7-day moving average of virus cases increased to 17.4k during the week ending July 9. This is the highest level since May 31 and a 28.3% increase from the week ending July 2. As BofA note this morning, from July 2 to July 9, forty states have recorded growth in daily cases and states where vaccine rates are lower are experiencing faster case growth. As shown in the chart below, the bank finds that growth in virus cases and  vaccination rates at the state level exhibit a negative relationship.\nAlong with low vaccine rates, the Delta variant, which is more infectious than earlier strains, has driven the rise in cases of late. Outbreak.info estimates that the variant accounted for 20% of virus cases over the 60 days ending July 7.\nMeantime, vaccine rates have slowed appreciably with the 7-day average of jabs dropping to just about 500k. This was likely due in part to the July 4 holiday; however, shots have been on a downward trend since April.\nRegardless, the US remains one of the most vaccinated countries,with 67.7% of its adult population and 88.7% of those 65 and older having received at least one shot to date.This, BofA concedes, should limit the spread of the Delta variant. However, the bank warns that the uneven vaccination rates across states and within states means that there are areas that have little protection against this highly infectious variant. Moreover, the longer the virus lingers the greater the risk for a vaccine-resistant variant to develop. In short: whether be decree or due to simple population dynamics, Covid-19 could be with us for the foreseeable future.\nIn light of this data,BofA thinks we will continue to see a surge in cases over the near-term, but does not expect restrictions on activity to be broadly imposed again.This means that while the downside risk to the economy is relatively low, the bank's economists will continue to reevaluate this view as things can change in a matter of days when it comes to the virus.\nEconomic activity\nThe NY Fed weekly economic index came in at 9.8% yoy in the week ending July 10, down a bit the 10.0% reading in the prior week.Looking at 2Q, the weekly index from the Fed predicts 2Q growth of 11.1% yoy, which would imply 2.9% qoq saar. This would be a significant deceleration from 6.4% in 1Qand is below current consensus forecasts of 10.0% qoq saar or 13.0% yoy. That said, the NY fed index has tended to undershoot actual growth.\n\nConsumer activity\nAccording to BofA,consumers’ appetite for services has so far been undeterred by the rise in cases.Dining out and air travel both increased by 1.2% and 2.9% respectively during the week ending July 12. Movie box office receipts also remained elevated as F9: the Fast saga was the top earner for a second consecutive week.  Here are the details:\n\nTime spent at home increased during the week ending July 9 given the July 4 holiday. Similarly, visitors to parks surged by 15.7% over the week and visitors to workplaces fell 7.7%. That said, one should ignore these big moves due to the holiday.\nThe 7-day average of daily air passenger traffic increased by 2.9% to 2.032M during the week ending July 12. This was 79.3% of traffic during the same week in 2019, down from 81.1% in the prior week. Leisure travel has rebounded quickly, while corporate and international travel continue to lag. That said, BofA strategists noted that corporate travel is trending higher.International travel remains depressed, and the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on international travel for the foreseeable future.\n\n\n\nSeated diners on the OpenTable network were down 7.8% from 2019 during the week ending July 12. This was up 1.2% from the prior week as weekly increases in the South and West offset declines in the Northeast and Midwest. We continue to expect dining out to approach 2019 levels, but nascent concerns over the Delta variant could start to affect consumers’ willingness to ear out even if they are vaccinated.\nMotor gasoline demand for the week ending July 2 topped its 2017-2019 weekly average for the first time since the start of the pandemic. This was likely due in part to seasonal effects from the holiday.\n\n\n\nMovie box office receipts remained elevated but declined from last week’s pandemic high. Receipts fell to $115M from $140M withF9: The Fast Sagaremaining the number 1 release. Average receipts per film are running above pre-pandemic levels due to the limited number of movie releases. This suggests demand is strong but supply has some catching up to do.\n\nLabor market\n\nThe employment data tracked by BofA continues to be affected by the holidays as data from Homebase and the American staffing index are only available through July 11 and 3 respectively. Here are some more details:\nThe data on small business employment from Homebase remains affected by the July 4 holiday as the latest available data are only through July 11, and we look at the 7-day moving average to smooth through week-day noise. Next week the data will be more informative as we’ll have the first estimate of the employment figures for the July payroll week.\n\n\n\nInitial jobless claims were little changed at 373k in the week ending July 3rd. It’s possible the holidays added a little noise to the data and could also distort the coming release. Additionally, auto companies forgoing typical summer production slowdowns could also affect the data.\n\n\n\nThrough the first 27 weeks of the year, high propensity business applications are up 40.5% from the same period in 2019. This should be a positive source of labor demand over the near-term as new businesses start hiring. Additionally, it could also help drive productivity.\n\n\n\nThe American Staffing index recorded an 8.4% increase from two years ago during the week ending July 3rd. It’s likely that the outsized increase is a result of the timing of the July 4 holiday in 2019 vs. 2021. That said, the index continues to be a positive signal for labor demand and hiring activity in the temporary help sector.\n\nIndustrial activity\n\nRailroad traffic rebounded with and 10.9% increase during the week ending July 3, more than reversing the 5.0% drop in the prior week. The rebound was driven by a surge in carloads of coal, motor vehicle and parts, and chemicals.\n\n\n\nIn the week ending July 3, raw steel production rose by 1.0% and was little changed in the week ending July 10. It is currently now just 2.3% shy of its pre-pandemic average.\nThe oil and gas rig count increased by four to 479 during the week ending July 9. Two of the four new rigs were oil rigs, bringing the count up to 378. This is well below the pre-pandemic average despite oil prices running at elevated levels on the back of strong demand.\n\nReal Estate\n\nMortgage purchase applications continue to slide, declining by 1.1% in the week ending July 2. Limited supply continues to be cited as a key reason for the decline in sales, although the real reason is soaring prices and lack of affordability. Still after being a strong positive early on in the pandemic recovery, the residential sector is becoming a drag on growth.\n\n\n\nOffice occupancy levels fell during the week ending July 7 due to the July 4 holiday. Across 10 major metro areas, average office occupancy fell by 1.7ppt to 31.0%. This is likely to reverse in the following week as the holiday effects fade.\n\n\nIn short, the media is doing all in its power to drum up panic for what appears to be another upcoming stimmy-triggering lockdown, but at least so far it is failing to impact consumer behavior.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808365315,"gmtCreate":1627558469737,"gmtModify":1633763826892,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Getting unpopular","listText":"Getting unpopular","text":"Getting unpopular","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808365315","repostId":"1160646302","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801100375,"gmtCreate":1627485514497,"gmtModify":1633764520751,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bye-bye facebook","listText":"Bye-bye facebook","text":"Bye-bye facebook","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801100375","repostId":"1179923360","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177229919,"gmtCreate":1627225927531,"gmtModify":1633767047656,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Prolly cos of greedy tutors taking advantage of tiger parents","listText":"Prolly cos of greedy tutors taking advantage of tiger parents","text":"Prolly cos of greedy tutors taking advantage of tiger parents","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177229919","repostId":"2153330936","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175202524,"gmtCreate":1627031863268,"gmtModify":1633768617920,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bec tutoring is causing a lot of pain, like doctors fees","listText":"Bec tutoring is causing a lot of pain, like doctors fees","text":"Bec tutoring is causing a lot of pain, like doctors fees","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175202524","repostId":"2153600177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178480541,"gmtCreate":1626831773683,"gmtModify":1633770586605,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is alternative coming??","listText":"Is alternative coming??","text":"Is alternative coming??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178480541","repostId":"1169582354","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}