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2021-10-30

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-07-30

Likr

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2021-07-26

Upupupupup

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2021-07-25

Ask someone from 2070

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2021-07-24

Tesla upppp

Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.<blockquote>特斯拉财报即将发布。这是一个重要的数字。</blockquote>

2021-07-23

Why why why

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2021-07-22

Huat ah

Nio Begins Shipping Flagship ES8 SUVs To Norway, Marking Key Step In Europe Expansion<blockquote>蔚来开始向挪威运送旗舰ES8 SUV，标志着欧洲扩张迈出关键一步</blockquote>

2021-07-22

Huat ah Heng ah Ong ah

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2021-07-20

Watch Bezos space travel live

Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>

2021-07-19

What is bubble

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2021-07-19

Ok

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>

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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840010420","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween 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Here’s the One Number That Matters.<blockquote>特斯拉财报即将发布。这是一个重要的数字。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191636755","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likel","content":"<p>Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第二季度财报即将公布，投资者应该为一份可能非常复杂的报告做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk. Figuring out if the stock will go up or down, however, shouldn’t be all that difficult.</p><p><blockquote>对于这家世界上最有价值的汽车公司及其打破传统的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克来说，有很多活动部件，甚至比平时还要多。然而，弄清楚股票是上涨还是下跌应该并不那么困难。</blockquote></p><p> The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday,July 26. Wall Street is looking for&nbsp;Tesla to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车先驱将于7月26日星期一收盘后发布报告。FactSet的数据显示，华尔街预计特斯拉的销售额为115亿美元，每股收益约为94美分。对于任何股票在财报后交易中保持稳定来说，超出分析师预期非常重要，几乎是必需的。特斯拉也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There are plenty of factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings—the global&nbsp;semiconductor&nbsp;shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p><p><blockquote>有很多因素将影响底线收益——全球半导体短缺、汽车定价、汽车毛利率以及特斯拉电池存储业务的盈利水平。然而，最终，投资者将希望看到营业利润创纪录——无论它如何发生。这可能会使股价突破近期区间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9cfd5cbe6d36d06167f82af45447d1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布2020年第三季度营业利润超过8亿美元，该股在随后的三个月内上涨了一倍多，达到860美元左右。但由于随后几个季度营业利润增长基本暂停，股价最近已从约860美元跌至约640美元。利润停滞也意味着股票停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered&nbsp;more than 200,000&nbsp;vehicles in a single quarter.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉多头来说，好消息是华尔街预计将创下新纪录：在强劲交付的推动下，第二季度营业利润预计为8.35亿美元。2021年第二季度是特斯拉单季度交付量首次超过20万辆。</blockquote></p><p> After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla&nbsp;beat earnings&nbsp;estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>在盈利被消化后，多头和空头之间应该会对盈利质量争论不休。例如，特斯拉创造销售的一种方式是出售监管信用——它通过生产超过其公平份额的电动汽车来赚取监管信用。该公司第一季度信贷销售额为5.18亿美元，这帮助特斯拉超出了盈利预期。关于什么是“正常”的信贷销售金额以及这些销售何时会枯竭，一直存在争议。最终，多头和空头都预计其他汽车制造商将销售自己的电动汽车，从而切断特斯拉的收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the issue&nbsp;of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p><p><blockquote>还有比特币的问题。特斯拉第一季度比特币持有量小幅增长，但该加密货币的价格自4月份的峰值以来已下跌约一半。这意味着有可能会有一点损失。投资者的反应谁也说不准，但不要指望特斯拉会抛售其比特币头寸。马斯克继续表示，当比特币矿业使用更可持续的电力时，他的公司将以加密货币进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s&nbsp;Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software&nbsp;as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its&nbsp;charging network&nbsp;to other EVs down the road.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还想知道特斯拉的新德国工厂和德克萨斯奥斯丁工厂何时开始交付汽车。奥斯丁工厂将生产特斯拉的Cybertruck。人们还可能会对特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的进步产生疑问——该公司最近开始以订阅形式销售其驾驶辅助软件——以及该公司可以从其充电网络中赚多少钱。马斯克本周在推特上表示，特斯拉将向其他电动汽车开放其充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> All those topics and more should come up on the earningsconference callscheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of theS&amp;P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些话题以及更多话题都应该出现在定于下午5:30举行的财报电话会议上。美国东部时间周一。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约9%，落后于标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别17%和15%的涨幅。尽管如此，特斯拉股价仍表现强劲，在过去12个月内上涨了约112%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.<blockquote>特斯拉财报即将发布。这是一个重要的数字。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.<blockquote>特斯拉财报即将发布。这是一个重要的数字。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 07:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第二季度财报即将公布，投资者应该为一份可能非常复杂的报告做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk. Figuring out if the stock will go up or down, however, shouldn’t be all that difficult.</p><p><blockquote>对于这家世界上最有价值的汽车公司及其打破传统的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克来说，有很多活动部件，甚至比平时还要多。然而，弄清楚股票是上涨还是下跌应该并不那么困难。</blockquote></p><p> The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday,July 26. Wall Street is looking for&nbsp;Tesla to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车先驱将于7月26日星期一收盘后发布报告。FactSet的数据显示，华尔街预计特斯拉的销售额为115亿美元，每股收益约为94美分。对于任何股票在财报后交易中保持稳定来说，超出分析师预期非常重要，几乎是必需的。特斯拉也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There are plenty of factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings—the global&nbsp;semiconductor&nbsp;shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p><p><blockquote>有很多因素将影响底线收益——全球半导体短缺、汽车定价、汽车毛利率以及特斯拉电池存储业务的盈利水平。然而，最终，投资者将希望看到营业利润创纪录——无论它如何发生。这可能会使股价突破近期区间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9cfd5cbe6d36d06167f82af45447d1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布2020年第三季度营业利润超过8亿美元，该股在随后的三个月内上涨了一倍多，达到860美元左右。但由于随后几个季度营业利润增长基本暂停，股价最近已从约860美元跌至约640美元。利润停滞也意味着股票停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered&nbsp;more than 200,000&nbsp;vehicles in a single quarter.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉多头来说，好消息是华尔街预计将创下新纪录：在强劲交付的推动下，第二季度营业利润预计为8.35亿美元。2021年第二季度是特斯拉单季度交付量首次超过20万辆。</blockquote></p><p> After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla&nbsp;beat earnings&nbsp;estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>在盈利被消化后，多头和空头之间应该会对盈利质量争论不休。例如，特斯拉创造销售的一种方式是出售监管信用——它通过生产超过其公平份额的电动汽车来赚取监管信用。该公司第一季度信贷销售额为5.18亿美元，这帮助特斯拉超出了盈利预期。关于什么是“正常”的信贷销售金额以及这些销售何时会枯竭，一直存在争议。最终，多头和空头都预计其他汽车制造商将销售自己的电动汽车，从而切断特斯拉的收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the issue&nbsp;of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p><p><blockquote>还有比特币的问题。特斯拉第一季度比特币持有量小幅增长，但该加密货币的价格自4月份的峰值以来已下跌约一半。这意味着有可能会有一点损失。投资者的反应谁也说不准，但不要指望特斯拉会抛售其比特币头寸。马斯克继续表示，当比特币矿业使用更可持续的电力时，他的公司将以加密货币进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s&nbsp;Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software&nbsp;as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its&nbsp;charging network&nbsp;to other EVs down the road.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还想知道特斯拉的新德国工厂和德克萨斯奥斯丁工厂何时开始交付汽车。奥斯丁工厂将生产特斯拉的Cybertruck。人们还可能会对特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的进步产生疑问——该公司最近开始以订阅形式销售其驾驶辅助软件——以及该公司可以从其充电网络中赚多少钱。马斯克本周在推特上表示，特斯拉将向其他电动汽车开放其充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> All those topics and more should come up on the earningsconference callscheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of theS&amp;P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些话题以及更多话题都应该出现在定于下午5:30举行的财报电话会议上。美国东部时间周一。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约9%，落后于标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别17%和15%的涨幅。尽管如此，特斯拉股价仍表现强劲，在过去12个月内上涨了约112%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191636755","content_text":"Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.\nThere are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk. Figuring out if the stock will go up or down, however, shouldn’t be all that difficult.\nThe EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday,July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.\nThere are plenty of factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings—the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.\n\nTesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.\nThe good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.\nAfter earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.\nThere is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.\nInvestors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.\nAll those topics and more should come up on the earningsconference callscheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of theS&P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175920803,"gmtCreate":1627003196702,"gmtModify":1633768894499,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573690243410174","authorIdStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why why why","listText":"Why why why","text":"Why why why","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175920803","repostId":"1175825882","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172367777,"gmtCreate":1626938201199,"gmtModify":1633769561924,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573690243410174","authorIdStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat ah","listText":"Huat ah","text":"Huat ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172367777","repostId":"1194559394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194559394","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938020,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194559394?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nio Begins Shipping Flagship ES8 SUVs To Norway, Marking Key Step In Europe Expansion<blockquote>蔚来开始向挪威运送旗舰ES8 SUV，标志着欧洲扩张迈出关键一步</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194559394","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Nio Inc said on Thursday it has dispatched the first set of its flagship ES8 electric seven-seater s","content":"<p><div> Nio Inc said on Thursday it has dispatched the first set of its flagship ES8 electric seven-seater sports utility vehicles to Norway. What Happened:The U.S.-listed Chinese electric vehicle company ...</p><p><blockquote><div>蔚来公司周四表示，已向挪威发送了第一套旗舰ES8电动七座运动型多功能车。发生了什么：在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22097443/nio-begins-shipping-flagship-es8-suvs-to-norway-marking-key-step-in-europe-expansion\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22097443/nio-begins-shipping-flagship-es8-suvs-to-norway-marking-key-step-in-europe-expansion\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nio Begins Shipping Flagship ES8 SUVs To Norway, Marking Key Step In Europe Expansion<blockquote>蔚来开始向挪威运送旗舰ES8 SUV，标志着欧洲扩张迈出关键一步</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNio Begins Shipping Flagship ES8 SUVs To Norway, Marking Key Step In Europe Expansion<blockquote>蔚来开始向挪威运送旗舰ES8 SUV，标志着欧洲扩张迈出关键一步</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Nio Inc said on Thursday it has dispatched the first set of its flagship ES8 electric seven-seater sports utility vehicles to Norway. What Happened:The U.S.-listed Chinese electric vehicle company ...</p><p><blockquote><div>蔚来公司周四表示，已向挪威发送了第一套旗舰ES8电动七座运动型多功能车。发生了什么：在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22097443/nio-begins-shipping-flagship-es8-suvs-to-norway-marking-key-step-in-europe-expansion\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22097443/nio-begins-shipping-flagship-es8-suvs-to-norway-marking-key-step-in-europe-expansion\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22097443/nio-begins-shipping-flagship-es8-suvs-to-norway-marking-key-step-in-europe-expansion\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","VWAGY":"大众汽车ADR"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22097443/nio-begins-shipping-flagship-es8-suvs-to-norway-marking-key-step-in-europe-expansion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194559394","content_text":"Nio Inc said on Thursday it has dispatched the first set of its flagship ES8 electric seven-seater sports utility vehicles to Norway.\nWhat Happened:The U.S.-listed Chinese electric vehicle company shipped the first batch of ES8s on Tuesday from Shanghai Waigaoqiao Port to Norway. Deliveries are expected to commence in September.\nThe company did not disclose the number of units that it has shipped to Norway.\nNio had said last month it has secured European Whole Vehicle Type Approval (EWVTA) for mass production and license plate registration for ES8 in all E.U. countries, paving the way for its foray outside China.\nWhy It Matters:Norway, widely considered the most EV-friendly country in the world, is being seen as the gateway for Nio to expand into Europe.  Nio earlier said the EWVTA certification \"marks an essential foundation for NIO's entry into Norway and the European market at large.\"\nThe company has not disclosed the pricing of the ES8 SUV, which will have a range of about 400 km to 500 km on the WLTP cycle and is aimed at the premium segment.\nNio will follow up with the ET7 sedan, seen as a rival to Tesla Inc Model S, with a launch next year.\nEurope will be a testing ground not just for Nio but its other Chinese EV rivals who have set sight on the region where global automakers such as Volkswagen AG , Tesla, and others have a formidable presence.\nNio's rival Xpeng Inc has been shipping electric vehicles to Norway since December and plans to driveexpansionplans in Europe, followed by the U.S.\nPrice Action:Nio shares closed 5.89% higher at $46.77 on Wednesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VWAGY":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172367249,"gmtCreate":1626938177581,"gmtModify":1633769562294,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573690243410174","authorIdStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat ah Heng ah Ong ah","listText":"Huat ah Heng ah Ong ah","text":"Huat ah Heng ah Ong ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172367249","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178954559,"gmtCreate":1626784945871,"gmtModify":1633771086260,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573690243410174","authorIdStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Watch Bezos space travel live","listText":"Watch Bezos space travel live","text":"Watch Bezos space travel live","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178954559","repostId":"1107562561","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107562561","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626781673,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107562561?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 19:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107562561","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 20) U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday, after major indexes tumbled Monday on concerns ov","content":"<p>(July 20)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday, after major indexes tumbled Monday on concerns over the spread of Covid-19 variants and potential setbacks to the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>（7月20日）美国。由于担心Covid-19变种的传播和经济复苏的潜在挫折，主要股指周一暴跌，周二股指期货小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:46 a.m. ET,Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;rose 0.65%, suggesting a reversal for the blue-chip index that fell more than 700 points Monday in itsworst session since October. S&amp;P 500 futures and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 futures also climbed about&nbsp;0.5%, pointing to gains for both the broad-market index and technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午7:46，与道琼斯工业平均指数挂钩的期货上涨0.65%，这表明该蓝筹股指数出现逆转，周一跌幅超过700点，创10月份以来最糟糕的交易日。标普500期货及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100指数期货也攀升约0.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c7cf976c90c31e5beb9ae8a2d1ee346\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have grown concerned over the Delta coronavirus variant, prompting a reassessment of the economy’s prospects. Despite this, the three major stock indexes each closed only around 3% down from their all-time highs Monday, underscoring the strength of the rally that powered equity markets in the first half of the year.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>对德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的担忧日益加剧，促使人们重新评估经济前景。尽管如此，三大股指周一收盘仅较历史高点下跌约3%，凸显了今年上半年推动股市上涨的力度。</blockquote></p><p> “When you get a selloff like we had yesterday, there are certainly going to be some investors who are going to see that as an opportunity to invest for the longer term,” said Kiran Ganesh, a multiasset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Especially where the 10-year [Treasury] yields have gone, that still points to the default position for investors as long equities, because there are simply very few other options.”</p><p><blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理多资产策略师基兰·加内什(Kiran Ganesh)表示：“当出现像昨天那样的抛售时，肯定会有一些投资者将其视为长期投资的机会。”“尤其是10年期[国债]收益率的走势，这仍然表明投资者的默认头寸是做多股票，因为其他选择很少。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;Amazon</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a> gains 0.6% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading ahead of Jeff Bezos’s flight to space with his Blue Origin crew.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266594038247%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Watch&nbsp;Live&lt;&lt;</b></a></p><p><blockquote><b>1）亚马逊</b> <b>-</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>在杰夫·贝索斯(Elon Musk)与蓝色起源(Blue Origin)机组人员飞往太空之前，盘前交易上涨0.6%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266594038247%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>观看直播&lt;&lt;</b></a></blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> gained 4.0% in premarket trading as brokerages raised their price targets on the stock following strong quarterly growth in the company’s cloud and consulting businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2) </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>在该公司云和咨询业务季度强劲增长后，券商提高了该股的目标价，盘前交易中上涨4.0%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Halliburton</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">Halliburton</a> added 2% after it posted a second-straight quarterly profit, as a rebound in crude prices from pandemic-lows buoyed demand for oilfield services.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）哈里伯顿</b> -  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">哈里伯顿</a>由于原油价格从大流行低点反弹提振了对油田服务的需求，该公司连续第二个季度实现盈利，股价上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> 4)&nbsp;<b>Energy stocks</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a> rose between 0.8% and 2.7%, as oil prices edged higher after the previous session’s 7% slide.</p><p><blockquote>4) <b>能源股</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">斯伦贝谢</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">菲利普斯66</a>油价在前一交易日下跌7%后小幅走高，涨幅在0.8%至2.7%之间。</blockquote></p><p> 5)&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a>&nbsp;-</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a> slumps as much as 73% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;after the FDA identified deficiencies on the company’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> Drug Application for</p><p><blockquote>5) <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a> -</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a>在FDA发现该公司的产品存在缺陷后，上市前股价暴跌73%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>药品申请</blockquote></p><p> 6)&nbsp;Tenapanor for the Control of Serum Phosphorus. Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to neutral from buy and slashed its price target to $4 from $14, adding that it struggles to see a path forward for Tenapanor.</p><p><blockquote>6）用于控制血清磷的Tenapanor。Piper Sandler将该股评级从买入下调至中性，并将目标价从14美元下调至4美元，并补充说它很难看到Tenapanor的前进道路。</blockquote></p><p> 7)&nbsp;Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fall in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after the selloff in Bitcoin accelerated and pushed the token below $30,000 for the first time in around a month. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLR\">Digital</a> (MARA) slides 2.3% and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) drops 2.4%, while Bit Digital (BTBT) falls 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>7)在比特币抛售加速并将代币推低至30,000美元左右后，加密货币敞口股票在盘前交易中下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">马拉松</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLR\">数字的</a>(MARA)下跌2.3%，Riot Blockchain(RIOT)下跌2.4%，Bit Digital(BTBT)下跌1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> 8)&nbsp;Airline stocks, Cruise Stocks rally in&nbsp;premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>8）航空股、邮轮股在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c010156919e7a9a142d3f1526e159338\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">9)&nbsp;EV&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;are&nbsp;up&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ed864e7f35620844cc2cbbffe42e24b\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>9)电动汽车股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities,</b> oil prices stabilized after slumping around 7% in the previous session due to worries about future demand and after an OPEC+ agreement to increase supply. Brent crude gained 0.7% to $69.11 a barrel. The U.S. crude contract for August delivery, which expires later on Tuesday, was up 0.9% at $66.64 a barrel. Spot gold fades Asia’s modest gains to trade near $1,815/oz after hitting a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-week low of $1,794.06 in the previous session. Base metals were mixed, LME lead and LME copper outperform; zinc drops as much as 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>由于对未来需求的担忧以及欧佩克+达成增加供应的协议，油价在前一交易日暴跌7%左右后企稳。布伦特原油上涨0.7%，至每桶69.11美元。周二晚些时候到期的美国8月原油合约上涨0.9%，至每桶66.64美元。现货黄金在触及1,815美元/盎司后，在亚洲小幅上涨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-前一交易日触及一周低点1,794.06美元。基本金属涨跌互现，LME铅、LME铜跑赢大盘；锌跌幅高达0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> In a separate gauge of investor risk appetite, bitcoin fell below $30,000 for the first time since June 22.</p><p><blockquote>在另一项衡量投资者风险偏好的指标中，比特币自6月22日以来首次跌破3万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Meanwhile, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> reporting season is underway, with 41 of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 having reported. Of those, 90% have beaten consensus estimates, according to Refinitiv data. Focus is now on earnings reports from companies including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> Inc, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">Philip Morris</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">Chipotle Mexican Grill</a> later in the day.</p><p><blockquote>同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>报告季正在进行中，标普500已有41家公司提交了报告。根据Refinitiv的数据，其中90%超出了普遍预期。现在的焦点是公司的收益报告，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>公司，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">菲利普·莫里斯</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">墨西哥烤肉店</a>今天晚些时候。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the day ahead, the data highlights include US housing starts and building permits for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, while earnings releases include Netflix, Phillip Morris, HCA <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a>, Chipotle, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> Airlines and Halliburton.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来一天，数据亮点包括美国6月份新屋开工和建筑许可。在央行方面，我们将听取欧洲央行Villeroy的发言，而财报发布包括Netflix、菲利普莫里斯、HCA<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>,墨西哥卷饼,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">团结的</a>航空公司和哈里伯顿公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-20 19:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 20)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday, after major indexes tumbled Monday on concerns over the spread of Covid-19 variants and potential setbacks to the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>（7月20日）美国。由于担心Covid-19变种的传播和经济复苏的潜在挫折，主要股指周一暴跌，周二股指期货小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:46 a.m. ET,Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;rose 0.65%, suggesting a reversal for the blue-chip index that fell more than 700 points Monday in itsworst session since October. S&amp;P 500 futures and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 futures also climbed about&nbsp;0.5%, pointing to gains for both the broad-market index and technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午7:46，与道琼斯工业平均指数挂钩的期货上涨0.65%，这表明该蓝筹股指数出现逆转，周一跌幅超过700点，创10月份以来最糟糕的交易日。标普500期货及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100指数期货也攀升约0.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c7cf976c90c31e5beb9ae8a2d1ee346\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have grown concerned over the Delta coronavirus variant, prompting a reassessment of the economy’s prospects. Despite this, the three major stock indexes each closed only around 3% down from their all-time highs Monday, underscoring the strength of the rally that powered equity markets in the first half of the year.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>对德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的担忧日益加剧，促使人们重新评估经济前景。尽管如此，三大股指周一收盘仅较历史高点下跌约3%，凸显了今年上半年推动股市上涨的力度。</blockquote></p><p> “When you get a selloff like we had yesterday, there are certainly going to be some investors who are going to see that as an opportunity to invest for the longer term,” said Kiran Ganesh, a multiasset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Especially where the 10-year [Treasury] yields have gone, that still points to the default position for investors as long equities, because there are simply very few other options.”</p><p><blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理多资产策略师基兰·加内什(Kiran Ganesh)表示：“当出现像昨天那样的抛售时，肯定会有一些投资者将其视为长期投资的机会。”“尤其是10年期[国债]收益率的走势，这仍然表明投资者的默认头寸是做多股票，因为其他选择很少。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;Amazon</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a> gains 0.6% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading ahead of Jeff Bezos’s flight to space with his Blue Origin crew.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266594038247%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Watch&nbsp;Live&lt;&lt;</b></a></p><p><blockquote><b>1）亚马逊</b> <b>-</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>在杰夫·贝索斯(Elon Musk)与蓝色起源(Blue Origin)机组人员飞往太空之前，盘前交易上涨0.6%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266594038247%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>观看直播&lt;&lt;</b></a></blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> gained 4.0% in premarket trading as brokerages raised their price targets on the stock following strong quarterly growth in the company’s cloud and consulting businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2) </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>在该公司云和咨询业务季度强劲增长后，券商提高了该股的目标价，盘前交易中上涨4.0%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Halliburton</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">Halliburton</a> added 2% after it posted a second-straight quarterly profit, as a rebound in crude prices from pandemic-lows buoyed demand for oilfield services.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）哈里伯顿</b> -  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">哈里伯顿</a>由于原油价格从大流行低点反弹提振了对油田服务的需求，该公司连续第二个季度实现盈利，股价上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> 4)&nbsp;<b>Energy stocks</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a> rose between 0.8% and 2.7%, as oil prices edged higher after the previous session’s 7% slide.</p><p><blockquote>4) <b>能源股</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">斯伦贝谢</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">菲利普斯66</a>油价在前一交易日下跌7%后小幅走高，涨幅在0.8%至2.7%之间。</blockquote></p><p> 5)&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a>&nbsp;-</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a> slumps as much as 73% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;after the FDA identified deficiencies on the company’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> Drug Application for</p><p><blockquote>5) <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a> -</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a>在FDA发现该公司的产品存在缺陷后，上市前股价暴跌73%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>药品申请</blockquote></p><p> 6)&nbsp;Tenapanor for the Control of Serum Phosphorus. Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to neutral from buy and slashed its price target to $4 from $14, adding that it struggles to see a path forward for Tenapanor.</p><p><blockquote>6）用于控制血清磷的Tenapanor。Piper Sandler将该股评级从买入下调至中性，并将目标价从14美元下调至4美元，并补充说它很难看到Tenapanor的前进道路。</blockquote></p><p> 7)&nbsp;Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fall in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after the selloff in Bitcoin accelerated and pushed the token below $30,000 for the first time in around a month. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLR\">Digital</a> (MARA) slides 2.3% and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) drops 2.4%, while Bit Digital (BTBT) falls 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>7)在比特币抛售加速并将代币推低至30,000美元左右后，加密货币敞口股票在盘前交易中下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">马拉松</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLR\">数字的</a>(MARA)下跌2.3%，Riot Blockchain(RIOT)下跌2.4%，Bit Digital(BTBT)下跌1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> 8)&nbsp;Airline stocks, Cruise Stocks rally in&nbsp;premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>8）航空股、邮轮股在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c010156919e7a9a142d3f1526e159338\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">9)&nbsp;EV&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;are&nbsp;up&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ed864e7f35620844cc2cbbffe42e24b\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>9)电动汽车股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities,</b> oil prices stabilized after slumping around 7% in the previous session due to worries about future demand and after an OPEC+ agreement to increase supply. Brent crude gained 0.7% to $69.11 a barrel. The U.S. crude contract for August delivery, which expires later on Tuesday, was up 0.9% at $66.64 a barrel. Spot gold fades Asia’s modest gains to trade near $1,815/oz after hitting a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-week low of $1,794.06 in the previous session. Base metals were mixed, LME lead and LME copper outperform; zinc drops as much as 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>由于对未来需求的担忧以及欧佩克+达成增加供应的协议，油价在前一交易日暴跌7%左右后企稳。布伦特原油上涨0.7%，至每桶69.11美元。周二晚些时候到期的美国8月原油合约上涨0.9%，至每桶66.64美元。现货黄金在触及1,815美元/盎司后，在亚洲小幅上涨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-前一交易日触及一周低点1,794.06美元。基本金属涨跌互现，LME铅、LME铜跑赢大盘；锌跌幅高达0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> In a separate gauge of investor risk appetite, bitcoin fell below $30,000 for the first time since June 22.</p><p><blockquote>在另一项衡量投资者风险偏好的指标中，比特币自6月22日以来首次跌破3万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Meanwhile, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> reporting season is underway, with 41 of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 having reported. Of those, 90% have beaten consensus estimates, according to Refinitiv data. Focus is now on earnings reports from companies including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> Inc, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">Philip Morris</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">Chipotle Mexican Grill</a> later in the day.</p><p><blockquote>同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>报告季正在进行中，标普500已有41家公司提交了报告。根据Refinitiv的数据，其中90%超出了普遍预期。现在的焦点是公司的收益报告，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>公司，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">菲利普·莫里斯</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">墨西哥烤肉店</a>今天晚些时候。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the day ahead, the data highlights include US housing starts and building permits for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, while earnings releases include Netflix, Phillip Morris, HCA <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a>, Chipotle, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> Airlines and Halliburton.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来一天，数据亮点包括美国6月份新屋开工和建筑许可。在央行方面，我们将听取欧洲央行Villeroy的发言，而财报发布包括Netflix、菲利普莫里斯、HCA<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>,墨西哥卷饼,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">团结的</a>航空公司和哈里伯顿公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107562561","content_text":"(July 20) U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday, after major indexes tumbled Monday on concerns over the spread of Covid-19 variants and potential setbacks to the economic recovery.\nAt 7:46 a.m. ET,Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.65%, suggesting a reversal for the blue-chip index that fell more than 700 points Monday in itsworst session since October. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also climbed about 0.5%, pointing to gains for both the broad-market index and technology stocks.\n\nInvestors have grown concerned over the Delta coronavirus variant, prompting a reassessment of the economy’s prospects. Despite this, the three major stock indexes each closed only around 3% down from their all-time highs Monday, underscoring the strength of the rally that powered equity markets in the first half of the year.\n“When you get a selloff like we had yesterday, there are certainly going to be some investors who are going to see that as an opportunity to invest for the longer term,” said Kiran Ganesh, a multiasset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Especially where the 10-year [Treasury] yields have gone, that still points to the default position for investors as long equities, because there are simply very few other options.”\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\n1) Amazon - Amazon.com gains 0.6% in premarket trading ahead of Jeff Bezos’s flight to space with his Blue Origin crew. Watch Live<<\n2) IBM gained 4.0% in premarket trading as brokerages raised their price targets on the stock following strong quarterly growth in the company’s cloud and consulting businesses.\n3) Halliburton -  Halliburton added 2% after it posted a second-straight quarterly profit, as a rebound in crude prices from pandemic-lows buoyed demand for oilfield services.\n4) Energy stocks Chevron, Schlumberger, Occidental and Phillips 66 rose between 0.8% and 2.7%, as oil prices edged higher after the previous session’s 7% slide.\n5) Ardelyx - Ardelyx slumps as much as 73% in premarket after the FDA identified deficiencies on the company’s New Drug Application for\n6) Tenapanor for the Control of Serum Phosphorus. Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to neutral from buy and slashed its price target to $4 from $14, adding that it struggles to see a path forward for Tenapanor.\n7) Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fall in premarket trading after the selloff in Bitcoin accelerated and pushed the token below $30,000 for the first time in around a month. Marathon Digital (MARA) slides 2.3% and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) drops 2.4%, while Bit Digital (BTBT) falls 1.6%.\n8) Airline stocks, Cruise Stocks rally in premarket trading.\n9) EV stocks are up in premarket trading.\nIn commodities, oil prices stabilized after slumping around 7% in the previous session due to worries about future demand and after an OPEC+ agreement to increase supply. Brent crude gained 0.7% to $69.11 a barrel. The U.S. crude contract for August delivery, which expires later on Tuesday, was up 0.9% at $66.64 a barrel. Spot gold fades Asia’s modest gains to trade near $1,815/oz after hitting a one-week low of $1,794.06 in the previous session. Base metals were mixed, LME lead and LME copper outperform; zinc drops as much as 0.7%.\nIn a separate gauge of investor risk appetite, bitcoin fell below $30,000 for the first time since June 22.\nMeanwhile, Q2 reporting season is underway, with 41 of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. Of those, 90% have beaten consensus estimates, according to Refinitiv data. Focus is now on earnings reports from companies including Netflix Inc, Philip Morris and Chipotle Mexican Grill later in the day.\nLooking at the day ahead, the data highlights include US housing starts and building permits for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, while earnings releases include Netflix, Phillip Morris, HCA Healthcare, Chipotle, United Airlines and Halliburton.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171340693,"gmtCreate":1626708180412,"gmtModify":1633924728732,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573690243410174","authorIdStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What is bubble","listText":"What is bubble","text":"What is bubble","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171340693","repostId":"2152827296","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171357254,"gmtCreate":1626708145678,"gmtModify":1633924729312,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573690243410174","authorIdStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171357254","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":174574660,"gmtCreate":1627118120950,"gmtModify":1633767807051,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573690243410174","idStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla upppp","listText":"Tesla upppp","text":"Tesla upppp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174574660","repostId":"1191636755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191636755","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627084309,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191636755?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 07:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.<blockquote>特斯拉财报即将发布。这是一个重要的数字。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191636755","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likel","content":"<p>Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第二季度财报即将公布，投资者应该为一份可能非常复杂的报告做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk. Figuring out if the stock will go up or down, however, shouldn’t be all that difficult.</p><p><blockquote>对于这家世界上最有价值的汽车公司及其打破传统的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克来说，有很多活动部件，甚至比平时还要多。然而，弄清楚股票是上涨还是下跌应该并不那么困难。</blockquote></p><p> The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday,July 26. Wall Street is looking for&nbsp;Tesla to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车先驱将于7月26日星期一收盘后发布报告。FactSet的数据显示，华尔街预计特斯拉的销售额为115亿美元，每股收益约为94美分。对于任何股票在财报后交易中保持稳定来说，超出分析师预期非常重要，几乎是必需的。特斯拉也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There are plenty of factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings—the global&nbsp;semiconductor&nbsp;shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p><p><blockquote>有很多因素将影响底线收益——全球半导体短缺、汽车定价、汽车毛利率以及特斯拉电池存储业务的盈利水平。然而，最终，投资者将希望看到营业利润创纪录——无论它如何发生。这可能会使股价突破近期区间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9cfd5cbe6d36d06167f82af45447d1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布2020年第三季度营业利润超过8亿美元，该股在随后的三个月内上涨了一倍多，达到860美元左右。但由于随后几个季度营业利润增长基本暂停，股价最近已从约860美元跌至约640美元。利润停滞也意味着股票停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered&nbsp;more than 200,000&nbsp;vehicles in a single quarter.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉多头来说，好消息是华尔街预计将创下新纪录：在强劲交付的推动下，第二季度营业利润预计为8.35亿美元。2021年第二季度是特斯拉单季度交付量首次超过20万辆。</blockquote></p><p> After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla&nbsp;beat earnings&nbsp;estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>在盈利被消化后，多头和空头之间应该会对盈利质量争论不休。例如，特斯拉创造销售的一种方式是出售监管信用——它通过生产超过其公平份额的电动汽车来赚取监管信用。该公司第一季度信贷销售额为5.18亿美元，这帮助特斯拉超出了盈利预期。关于什么是“正常”的信贷销售金额以及这些销售何时会枯竭，一直存在争议。最终，多头和空头都预计其他汽车制造商将销售自己的电动汽车，从而切断特斯拉的收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the issue&nbsp;of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p><p><blockquote>还有比特币的问题。特斯拉第一季度比特币持有量小幅增长，但该加密货币的价格自4月份的峰值以来已下跌约一半。这意味着有可能会有一点损失。投资者的反应谁也说不准，但不要指望特斯拉会抛售其比特币头寸。马斯克继续表示，当比特币矿业使用更可持续的电力时，他的公司将以加密货币进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s&nbsp;Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software&nbsp;as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its&nbsp;charging network&nbsp;to other EVs down the road.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还想知道特斯拉的新德国工厂和德克萨斯奥斯丁工厂何时开始交付汽车。奥斯丁工厂将生产特斯拉的Cybertruck。人们还可能会对特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的进步产生疑问——该公司最近开始以订阅形式销售其驾驶辅助软件——以及该公司可以从其充电网络中赚多少钱。马斯克本周在推特上表示，特斯拉将向其他电动汽车开放其充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> All those topics and more should come up on the earningsconference callscheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of theS&amp;P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些话题以及更多话题都应该出现在定于下午5:30举行的财报电话会议上。美国东部时间周一。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约9%，落后于标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别17%和15%的涨幅。尽管如此，特斯拉股价仍表现强劲，在过去12个月内上涨了约112%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.<blockquote>特斯拉财报即将发布。这是一个重要的数字。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.<blockquote>特斯拉财报即将发布。这是一个重要的数字。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 07:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第二季度财报即将公布，投资者应该为一份可能非常复杂的报告做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk. Figuring out if the stock will go up or down, however, shouldn’t be all that difficult.</p><p><blockquote>对于这家世界上最有价值的汽车公司及其打破传统的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克来说，有很多活动部件，甚至比平时还要多。然而，弄清楚股票是上涨还是下跌应该并不那么困难。</blockquote></p><p> The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday,July 26. Wall Street is looking for&nbsp;Tesla to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车先驱将于7月26日星期一收盘后发布报告。FactSet的数据显示，华尔街预计特斯拉的销售额为115亿美元，每股收益约为94美分。对于任何股票在财报后交易中保持稳定来说，超出分析师预期非常重要，几乎是必需的。特斯拉也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> There are plenty of factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings—the global&nbsp;semiconductor&nbsp;shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p><p><blockquote>有很多因素将影响底线收益——全球半导体短缺、汽车定价、汽车毛利率以及特斯拉电池存储业务的盈利水平。然而，最终，投资者将希望看到营业利润创纪录——无论它如何发生。这可能会使股价突破近期区间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9cfd5cbe6d36d06167f82af45447d1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布2020年第三季度营业利润超过8亿美元，该股在随后的三个月内上涨了一倍多，达到860美元左右。但由于随后几个季度营业利润增长基本暂停，股价最近已从约860美元跌至约640美元。利润停滞也意味着股票停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered&nbsp;more than 200,000&nbsp;vehicles in a single quarter.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉多头来说，好消息是华尔街预计将创下新纪录：在强劲交付的推动下，第二季度营业利润预计为8.35亿美元。2021年第二季度是特斯拉单季度交付量首次超过20万辆。</blockquote></p><p> After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla&nbsp;beat earnings&nbsp;estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>在盈利被消化后，多头和空头之间应该会对盈利质量争论不休。例如，特斯拉创造销售的一种方式是出售监管信用——它通过生产超过其公平份额的电动汽车来赚取监管信用。该公司第一季度信贷销售额为5.18亿美元，这帮助特斯拉超出了盈利预期。关于什么是“正常”的信贷销售金额以及这些销售何时会枯竭，一直存在争议。最终，多头和空头都预计其他汽车制造商将销售自己的电动汽车，从而切断特斯拉的收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the issue&nbsp;of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p><p><blockquote>还有比特币的问题。特斯拉第一季度比特币持有量小幅增长，但该加密货币的价格自4月份的峰值以来已下跌约一半。这意味着有可能会有一点损失。投资者的反应谁也说不准，但不要指望特斯拉会抛售其比特币头寸。马斯克继续表示，当比特币矿业使用更可持续的电力时，他的公司将以加密货币进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s&nbsp;Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software&nbsp;as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its&nbsp;charging network&nbsp;to other EVs down the road.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还想知道特斯拉的新德国工厂和德克萨斯奥斯丁工厂何时开始交付汽车。奥斯丁工厂将生产特斯拉的Cybertruck。人们还可能会对特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的进步产生疑问——该公司最近开始以订阅形式销售其驾驶辅助软件——以及该公司可以从其充电网络中赚多少钱。马斯克本周在推特上表示，特斯拉将向其他电动汽车开放其充电网络。</blockquote></p><p> All those topics and more should come up on the earningsconference callscheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of theS&amp;P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些话题以及更多话题都应该出现在定于下午5:30举行的财报电话会议上。美国东部时间周一。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约9%，落后于标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别17%和15%的涨幅。尽管如此，特斯拉股价仍表现强劲，在过去12个月内上涨了约112%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191636755","content_text":"Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.\nThere are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk. Figuring out if the stock will go up or down, however, shouldn’t be all that difficult.\nThe EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday,July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.\nThere are plenty of factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings—the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.\n\nTesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.\nThe good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.\nAfter earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.\nThere is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.\nInvestors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.\nAll those topics and more should come up on the earningsconference callscheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of theS&P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171340693,"gmtCreate":1626708180412,"gmtModify":1633924728732,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573690243410174","idStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What is bubble","listText":"What is bubble","text":"What is bubble","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171340693","repostId":"2152827296","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177705849,"gmtCreate":1627260428681,"gmtModify":1633766823883,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573690243410174","idStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Upupupupup","listText":"Upupupupup","text":"Upupupupup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177705849","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172367777,"gmtCreate":1626938201199,"gmtModify":1633769561924,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573690243410174","idStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat ah","listText":"Huat ah","text":"Huat ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172367777","repostId":"1194559394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194559394","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938020,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194559394?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nio Begins Shipping Flagship ES8 SUVs To Norway, Marking Key Step In Europe Expansion<blockquote>蔚来开始向挪威运送旗舰ES8 SUV，标志着欧洲扩张迈出关键一步</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194559394","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Nio Inc said on Thursday it has dispatched the first set of its flagship ES8 electric seven-seater s","content":"<p><div> Nio Inc said on Thursday it has dispatched the first set of its flagship ES8 electric seven-seater sports utility vehicles to Norway. What Happened:The U.S.-listed Chinese electric vehicle company ...</p><p><blockquote><div>蔚来公司周四表示，已向挪威发送了第一套旗舰ES8电动七座运动型多功能车。发生了什么：在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22097443/nio-begins-shipping-flagship-es8-suvs-to-norway-marking-key-step-in-europe-expansion\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22097443/nio-begins-shipping-flagship-es8-suvs-to-norway-marking-key-step-in-europe-expansion\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nio Begins Shipping Flagship ES8 SUVs To Norway, Marking Key Step In Europe Expansion<blockquote>蔚来开始向挪威运送旗舰ES8 SUV，标志着欧洲扩张迈出关键一步</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNio Begins Shipping Flagship ES8 SUVs To Norway, Marking Key Step In Europe Expansion<blockquote>蔚来开始向挪威运送旗舰ES8 SUV，标志着欧洲扩张迈出关键一步</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Nio Inc said on Thursday it has dispatched the first set of its flagship ES8 electric seven-seater sports utility vehicles to Norway. What Happened:The U.S.-listed Chinese electric vehicle company ...</p><p><blockquote><div>蔚来公司周四表示，已向挪威发送了第一套旗舰ES8电动七座运动型多功能车。发生了什么：在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22097443/nio-begins-shipping-flagship-es8-suvs-to-norway-marking-key-step-in-europe-expansion\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22097443/nio-begins-shipping-flagship-es8-suvs-to-norway-marking-key-step-in-europe-expansion\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22097443/nio-begins-shipping-flagship-es8-suvs-to-norway-marking-key-step-in-europe-expansion\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","VWAGY":"大众汽车ADR"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22097443/nio-begins-shipping-flagship-es8-suvs-to-norway-marking-key-step-in-europe-expansion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194559394","content_text":"Nio Inc said on Thursday it has dispatched the first set of its flagship ES8 electric seven-seater sports utility vehicles to Norway.\nWhat Happened:The U.S.-listed Chinese electric vehicle company shipped the first batch of ES8s on Tuesday from Shanghai Waigaoqiao Port to Norway. Deliveries are expected to commence in September.\nThe company did not disclose the number of units that it has shipped to Norway.\nNio had said last month it has secured European Whole Vehicle Type Approval (EWVTA) for mass production and license plate registration for ES8 in all E.U. countries, paving the way for its foray outside China.\nWhy It Matters:Norway, widely considered the most EV-friendly country in the world, is being seen as the gateway for Nio to expand into Europe.  Nio earlier said the EWVTA certification \"marks an essential foundation for NIO's entry into Norway and the European market at large.\"\nThe company has not disclosed the pricing of the ES8 SUV, which will have a range of about 400 km to 500 km on the WLTP cycle and is aimed at the premium segment.\nNio will follow up with the ET7 sedan, seen as a rival to Tesla Inc Model S, with a launch next year.\nEurope will be a testing ground not just for Nio but its other Chinese EV rivals who have set sight on the region where global automakers such as Volkswagen AG , Tesla, and others have a formidable presence.\nNio's rival Xpeng Inc has been shipping electric vehicles to Norway since December and plans to driveexpansionplans in Europe, followed by the U.S.\nPrice Action:Nio shares closed 5.89% higher at $46.77 on Wednesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VWAGY":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172367249,"gmtCreate":1626938177581,"gmtModify":1633769562294,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573690243410174","idStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat ah Heng ah Ong ah","listText":"Huat ah Heng ah Ong ah","text":"Huat ah Heng ah Ong ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172367249","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178954559,"gmtCreate":1626784945871,"gmtModify":1633771086260,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573690243410174","idStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Watch Bezos space travel live","listText":"Watch Bezos space travel live","text":"Watch Bezos space travel live","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178954559","repostId":"1107562561","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107562561","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626781673,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107562561?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 19:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107562561","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 20) U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday, after major indexes tumbled Monday on concerns ov","content":"<p>(July 20)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday, after major indexes tumbled Monday on concerns over the spread of Covid-19 variants and potential setbacks to the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>（7月20日）美国。由于担心Covid-19变种的传播和经济复苏的潜在挫折，主要股指周一暴跌，周二股指期货小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:46 a.m. ET,Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;rose 0.65%, suggesting a reversal for the blue-chip index that fell more than 700 points Monday in itsworst session since October. S&amp;P 500 futures and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 futures also climbed about&nbsp;0.5%, pointing to gains for both the broad-market index and technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午7:46，与道琼斯工业平均指数挂钩的期货上涨0.65%，这表明该蓝筹股指数出现逆转，周一跌幅超过700点，创10月份以来最糟糕的交易日。标普500期货及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100指数期货也攀升约0.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c7cf976c90c31e5beb9ae8a2d1ee346\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have grown concerned over the Delta coronavirus variant, prompting a reassessment of the economy’s prospects. Despite this, the three major stock indexes each closed only around 3% down from their all-time highs Monday, underscoring the strength of the rally that powered equity markets in the first half of the year.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>对德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的担忧日益加剧，促使人们重新评估经济前景。尽管如此，三大股指周一收盘仅较历史高点下跌约3%，凸显了今年上半年推动股市上涨的力度。</blockquote></p><p> “When you get a selloff like we had yesterday, there are certainly going to be some investors who are going to see that as an opportunity to invest for the longer term,” said Kiran Ganesh, a multiasset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Especially where the 10-year [Treasury] yields have gone, that still points to the default position for investors as long equities, because there are simply very few other options.”</p><p><blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理多资产策略师基兰·加内什(Kiran Ganesh)表示：“当出现像昨天那样的抛售时，肯定会有一些投资者将其视为长期投资的机会。”“尤其是10年期[国债]收益率的走势，这仍然表明投资者的默认头寸是做多股票，因为其他选择很少。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;Amazon</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a> gains 0.6% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading ahead of Jeff Bezos’s flight to space with his Blue Origin crew.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266594038247%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Watch&nbsp;Live&lt;&lt;</b></a></p><p><blockquote><b>1）亚马逊</b> <b>-</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>在杰夫·贝索斯(Elon Musk)与蓝色起源(Blue Origin)机组人员飞往太空之前，盘前交易上涨0.6%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266594038247%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>观看直播&lt;&lt;</b></a></blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> gained 4.0% in premarket trading as brokerages raised their price targets on the stock following strong quarterly growth in the company’s cloud and consulting businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2) </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>在该公司云和咨询业务季度强劲增长后，券商提高了该股的目标价，盘前交易中上涨4.0%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Halliburton</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">Halliburton</a> added 2% after it posted a second-straight quarterly profit, as a rebound in crude prices from pandemic-lows buoyed demand for oilfield services.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）哈里伯顿</b> -  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">哈里伯顿</a>由于原油价格从大流行低点反弹提振了对油田服务的需求，该公司连续第二个季度实现盈利，股价上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> 4)&nbsp;<b>Energy stocks</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a> rose between 0.8% and 2.7%, as oil prices edged higher after the previous session’s 7% slide.</p><p><blockquote>4) <b>能源股</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">斯伦贝谢</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">菲利普斯66</a>油价在前一交易日下跌7%后小幅走高，涨幅在0.8%至2.7%之间。</blockquote></p><p> 5)&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a>&nbsp;-</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a> slumps as much as 73% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;after the FDA identified deficiencies on the company’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> Drug Application for</p><p><blockquote>5) <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a> -</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a>在FDA发现该公司的产品存在缺陷后，上市前股价暴跌73%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>药品申请</blockquote></p><p> 6)&nbsp;Tenapanor for the Control of Serum Phosphorus. Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to neutral from buy and slashed its price target to $4 from $14, adding that it struggles to see a path forward for Tenapanor.</p><p><blockquote>6）用于控制血清磷的Tenapanor。Piper Sandler将该股评级从买入下调至中性，并将目标价从14美元下调至4美元，并补充说它很难看到Tenapanor的前进道路。</blockquote></p><p> 7)&nbsp;Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fall in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after the selloff in Bitcoin accelerated and pushed the token below $30,000 for the first time in around a month. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLR\">Digital</a> (MARA) slides 2.3% and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) drops 2.4%, while Bit Digital (BTBT) falls 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>7)在比特币抛售加速并将代币推低至30,000美元左右后，加密货币敞口股票在盘前交易中下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">马拉松</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLR\">数字的</a>(MARA)下跌2.3%，Riot Blockchain(RIOT)下跌2.4%，Bit Digital(BTBT)下跌1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> 8)&nbsp;Airline stocks, Cruise Stocks rally in&nbsp;premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>8）航空股、邮轮股在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c010156919e7a9a142d3f1526e159338\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">9)&nbsp;EV&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;are&nbsp;up&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ed864e7f35620844cc2cbbffe42e24b\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>9)电动汽车股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities,</b> oil prices stabilized after slumping around 7% in the previous session due to worries about future demand and after an OPEC+ agreement to increase supply. Brent crude gained 0.7% to $69.11 a barrel. The U.S. crude contract for August delivery, which expires later on Tuesday, was up 0.9% at $66.64 a barrel. Spot gold fades Asia’s modest gains to trade near $1,815/oz after hitting a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-week low of $1,794.06 in the previous session. Base metals were mixed, LME lead and LME copper outperform; zinc drops as much as 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>由于对未来需求的担忧以及欧佩克+达成增加供应的协议，油价在前一交易日暴跌7%左右后企稳。布伦特原油上涨0.7%，至每桶69.11美元。周二晚些时候到期的美国8月原油合约上涨0.9%，至每桶66.64美元。现货黄金在触及1,815美元/盎司后，在亚洲小幅上涨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-前一交易日触及一周低点1,794.06美元。基本金属涨跌互现，LME铅、LME铜跑赢大盘；锌跌幅高达0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> In a separate gauge of investor risk appetite, bitcoin fell below $30,000 for the first time since June 22.</p><p><blockquote>在另一项衡量投资者风险偏好的指标中，比特币自6月22日以来首次跌破3万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Meanwhile, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> reporting season is underway, with 41 of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 having reported. Of those, 90% have beaten consensus estimates, according to Refinitiv data. Focus is now on earnings reports from companies including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> Inc, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">Philip Morris</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">Chipotle Mexican Grill</a> later in the day.</p><p><blockquote>同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>报告季正在进行中，标普500已有41家公司提交了报告。根据Refinitiv的数据，其中90%超出了普遍预期。现在的焦点是公司的收益报告，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>公司，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">菲利普·莫里斯</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">墨西哥烤肉店</a>今天晚些时候。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the day ahead, the data highlights include US housing starts and building permits for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, while earnings releases include Netflix, Phillip Morris, HCA <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a>, Chipotle, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> Airlines and Halliburton.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来一天，数据亮点包括美国6月份新屋开工和建筑许可。在央行方面，我们将听取欧洲央行Villeroy的发言，而财报发布包括Netflix、菲利普莫里斯、HCA<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>,墨西哥卷饼,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">团结的</a>航空公司和哈里伯顿公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-20 19:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 20)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday, after major indexes tumbled Monday on concerns over the spread of Covid-19 variants and potential setbacks to the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>（7月20日）美国。由于担心Covid-19变种的传播和经济复苏的潜在挫折，主要股指周一暴跌，周二股指期货小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:46 a.m. ET,Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;rose 0.65%, suggesting a reversal for the blue-chip index that fell more than 700 points Monday in itsworst session since October. S&amp;P 500 futures and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 futures also climbed about&nbsp;0.5%, pointing to gains for both the broad-market index and technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午7:46，与道琼斯工业平均指数挂钩的期货上涨0.65%，这表明该蓝筹股指数出现逆转，周一跌幅超过700点，创10月份以来最糟糕的交易日。标普500期货及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100指数期货也攀升约0.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c7cf976c90c31e5beb9ae8a2d1ee346\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have grown concerned over the Delta coronavirus variant, prompting a reassessment of the economy’s prospects. Despite this, the three major stock indexes each closed only around 3% down from their all-time highs Monday, underscoring the strength of the rally that powered equity markets in the first half of the year.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>对德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的担忧日益加剧，促使人们重新评估经济前景。尽管如此，三大股指周一收盘仅较历史高点下跌约3%，凸显了今年上半年推动股市上涨的力度。</blockquote></p><p> “When you get a selloff like we had yesterday, there are certainly going to be some investors who are going to see that as an opportunity to invest for the longer term,” said Kiran Ganesh, a multiasset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Especially where the 10-year [Treasury] yields have gone, that still points to the default position for investors as long equities, because there are simply very few other options.”</p><p><blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理多资产策略师基兰·加内什(Kiran Ganesh)表示：“当出现像昨天那样的抛售时，肯定会有一些投资者将其视为长期投资的机会。”“尤其是10年期[国债]收益率的走势，这仍然表明投资者的默认头寸是做多股票，因为其他选择很少。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;Amazon</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a> gains 0.6% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading ahead of Jeff Bezos’s flight to space with his Blue Origin crew.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266594038247%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Watch&nbsp;Live&lt;&lt;</b></a></p><p><blockquote><b>1）亚马逊</b> <b>-</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>在杰夫·贝索斯(Elon Musk)与蓝色起源(Blue Origin)机组人员飞往太空之前，盘前交易上涨0.6%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266594038247%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>观看直播&lt;&lt;</b></a></blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> gained 4.0% in premarket trading as brokerages raised their price targets on the stock following strong quarterly growth in the company’s cloud and consulting businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2) </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>在该公司云和咨询业务季度强劲增长后，券商提高了该股的目标价，盘前交易中上涨4.0%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Halliburton</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">Halliburton</a> added 2% after it posted a second-straight quarterly profit, as a rebound in crude prices from pandemic-lows buoyed demand for oilfield services.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）哈里伯顿</b> -  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">哈里伯顿</a>由于原油价格从大流行低点反弹提振了对油田服务的需求，该公司连续第二个季度实现盈利，股价上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> 4)&nbsp;<b>Energy stocks</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a> rose between 0.8% and 2.7%, as oil prices edged higher after the previous session’s 7% slide.</p><p><blockquote>4) <b>能源股</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">斯伦贝谢</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">菲利普斯66</a>油价在前一交易日下跌7%后小幅走高，涨幅在0.8%至2.7%之间。</blockquote></p><p> 5)&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a>&nbsp;-</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a> slumps as much as 73% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;after the FDA identified deficiencies on the company’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> Drug Application for</p><p><blockquote>5) <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a> -</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARDX\">Ardelyx</a>在FDA发现该公司的产品存在缺陷后，上市前股价暴跌73%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>药品申请</blockquote></p><p> 6)&nbsp;Tenapanor for the Control of Serum Phosphorus. Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to neutral from buy and slashed its price target to $4 from $14, adding that it struggles to see a path forward for Tenapanor.</p><p><blockquote>6）用于控制血清磷的Tenapanor。Piper Sandler将该股评级从买入下调至中性，并将目标价从14美元下调至4美元，并补充说它很难看到Tenapanor的前进道路。</blockquote></p><p> 7)&nbsp;Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fall in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after the selloff in Bitcoin accelerated and pushed the token below $30,000 for the first time in around a month. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLR\">Digital</a> (MARA) slides 2.3% and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) drops 2.4%, while Bit Digital (BTBT) falls 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>7)在比特币抛售加速并将代币推低至30,000美元左右后，加密货币敞口股票在盘前交易中下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">马拉松</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLR\">数字的</a>(MARA)下跌2.3%，Riot Blockchain(RIOT)下跌2.4%，Bit Digital(BTBT)下跌1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> 8)&nbsp;Airline stocks, Cruise Stocks rally in&nbsp;premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>8）航空股、邮轮股在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c010156919e7a9a142d3f1526e159338\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">9)&nbsp;EV&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;are&nbsp;up&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ed864e7f35620844cc2cbbffe42e24b\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>9)电动汽车股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities,</b> oil prices stabilized after slumping around 7% in the previous session due to worries about future demand and after an OPEC+ agreement to increase supply. Brent crude gained 0.7% to $69.11 a barrel. The U.S. crude contract for August delivery, which expires later on Tuesday, was up 0.9% at $66.64 a barrel. Spot gold fades Asia’s modest gains to trade near $1,815/oz after hitting a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-week low of $1,794.06 in the previous session. Base metals were mixed, LME lead and LME copper outperform; zinc drops as much as 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>由于对未来需求的担忧以及欧佩克+达成增加供应的协议，油价在前一交易日暴跌7%左右后企稳。布伦特原油上涨0.7%，至每桶69.11美元。周二晚些时候到期的美国8月原油合约上涨0.9%，至每桶66.64美元。现货黄金在触及1,815美元/盎司后，在亚洲小幅上涨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-前一交易日触及一周低点1,794.06美元。基本金属涨跌互现，LME铅、LME铜跑赢大盘；锌跌幅高达0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> In a separate gauge of investor risk appetite, bitcoin fell below $30,000 for the first time since June 22.</p><p><blockquote>在另一项衡量投资者风险偏好的指标中，比特币自6月22日以来首次跌破3万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Meanwhile, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> reporting season is underway, with 41 of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 having reported. Of those, 90% have beaten consensus estimates, according to Refinitiv data. Focus is now on earnings reports from companies including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> Inc, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">Philip Morris</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">Chipotle Mexican Grill</a> later in the day.</p><p><blockquote>同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>报告季正在进行中，标普500已有41家公司提交了报告。根据Refinitiv的数据，其中90%超出了普遍预期。现在的焦点是公司的收益报告，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>公司，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">菲利普·莫里斯</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">墨西哥烤肉店</a>今天晚些时候。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the day ahead, the data highlights include US housing starts and building permits for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, while earnings releases include Netflix, Phillip Morris, HCA <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a>, Chipotle, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> Airlines and Halliburton.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来一天，数据亮点包括美国6月份新屋开工和建筑许可。在央行方面，我们将听取欧洲央行Villeroy的发言，而财报发布包括Netflix、菲利普莫里斯、HCA<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>,墨西哥卷饼,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">团结的</a>航空公司和哈里伯顿公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107562561","content_text":"(July 20) U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday, after major indexes tumbled Monday on concerns over the spread of Covid-19 variants and potential setbacks to the economic recovery.\nAt 7:46 a.m. ET,Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.65%, suggesting a reversal for the blue-chip index that fell more than 700 points Monday in itsworst session since October. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also climbed about 0.5%, pointing to gains for both the broad-market index and technology stocks.\n\nInvestors have grown concerned over the Delta coronavirus variant, prompting a reassessment of the economy’s prospects. Despite this, the three major stock indexes each closed only around 3% down from their all-time highs Monday, underscoring the strength of the rally that powered equity markets in the first half of the year.\n“When you get a selloff like we had yesterday, there are certainly going to be some investors who are going to see that as an opportunity to invest for the longer term,” said Kiran Ganesh, a multiasset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Especially where the 10-year [Treasury] yields have gone, that still points to the default position for investors as long equities, because there are simply very few other options.”\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\n1) Amazon - Amazon.com gains 0.6% in premarket trading ahead of Jeff Bezos’s flight to space with his Blue Origin crew. Watch Live<<\n2) IBM gained 4.0% in premarket trading as brokerages raised their price targets on the stock following strong quarterly growth in the company’s cloud and consulting businesses.\n3) Halliburton -  Halliburton added 2% after it posted a second-straight quarterly profit, as a rebound in crude prices from pandemic-lows buoyed demand for oilfield services.\n4) Energy stocks Chevron, Schlumberger, Occidental and Phillips 66 rose between 0.8% and 2.7%, as oil prices edged higher after the previous session’s 7% slide.\n5) Ardelyx - Ardelyx slumps as much as 73% in premarket after the FDA identified deficiencies on the company’s New Drug Application for\n6) Tenapanor for the Control of Serum Phosphorus. Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to neutral from buy and slashed its price target to $4 from $14, adding that it struggles to see a path forward for Tenapanor.\n7) Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fall in premarket trading after the selloff in Bitcoin accelerated and pushed the token below $30,000 for the first time in around a month. Marathon Digital (MARA) slides 2.3% and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) drops 2.4%, while Bit Digital (BTBT) falls 1.6%.\n8) Airline stocks, Cruise Stocks rally in premarket trading.\n9) EV stocks are up in premarket trading.\nIn commodities, oil prices stabilized after slumping around 7% in the previous session due to worries about future demand and after an OPEC+ agreement to increase supply. Brent crude gained 0.7% to $69.11 a barrel. The U.S. crude contract for August delivery, which expires later on Tuesday, was up 0.9% at $66.64 a barrel. Spot gold fades Asia’s modest gains to trade near $1,815/oz after hitting a one-week low of $1,794.06 in the previous session. Base metals were mixed, LME lead and LME copper outperform; zinc drops as much as 0.7%.\nIn a separate gauge of investor risk appetite, bitcoin fell below $30,000 for the first time since June 22.\nMeanwhile, Q2 reporting season is underway, with 41 of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. Of those, 90% have beaten consensus estimates, according to Refinitiv data. Focus is now on earnings reports from companies including Netflix Inc, Philip Morris and Chipotle Mexican Grill later in the day.\nLooking at the day ahead, the data highlights include US housing starts and building permits for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, while earnings releases include Netflix, Phillip Morris, HCA Healthcare, Chipotle, United Airlines and Halliburton.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171357254,"gmtCreate":1626708145678,"gmtModify":1633924729312,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573690243410174","idStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171357254","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177233079,"gmtCreate":1627220694091,"gmtModify":1633767081913,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573690243410174","idStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ask someone from 2070","listText":"Ask someone from 2070","text":"Ask someone from 2070","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177233079","repostId":"1115106146","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806670213,"gmtCreate":1627655424132,"gmtModify":1633757370567,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573690243410174","idStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Likr","listText":"Likr","text":"Likr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806670213","repostId":"2155367601","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175920803,"gmtCreate":1627003196702,"gmtModify":1633768894499,"author":{"id":"3573690243410174","authorId":"3573690243410174","name":"Meiyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70c43017299f10e8591448be8931281","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573690243410174","idStr":"3573690243410174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why why why","listText":"Why why why","text":"Why why why","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175920803","repostId":"1175825882","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}