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2021-02-23
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Why Tesla is a dud in Japan<blockquote>为什么特斯拉在日本是个哑弹</blockquote>
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2021-02-18
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Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价反弹是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>
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16:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla is a dud in Japan<blockquote>为什么特斯拉在日本是个哑弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173374581","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The automaker sold only 2,000 there last year\nTesla is the dominant electric car brand in most globa","content":"<p>The automaker sold only 2,000 there last year</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商去年在那里仅售出2,000辆</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is the dominant electric car brand in most global markets, but not Japan. Despite the kind of density that would be friendly to electric vehicles and a generally eco-conscious population, Teslas have never caught on in the island nation.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉是大多数全球市场的主导电动汽车品牌，但不是日本。尽管特斯拉的密度对电动汽车和普遍具有环保意识的人口都很友好，但特斯拉从未在这个岛国流行起来。</blockquote></p><p> The automaker sold fewer than 2,000 cars in Japan last year, a tiny slice of the nearly half-million it delivered globally. Overall, automakers sold around 3.4 million cars in Japan last year, even as figures were down considerably due to the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商去年在日本的销量不到2,000辆，仅占其全球近50万辆汽车的一小部分。总体而言，汽车制造商去年在日本销售了约340万辆汽车，尽管由于冠状病毒大流行，这一数字大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> To boost sales there, Tesla has sliced asking prices on its Model 3 sedan by around 20%. The cheapest Model 3 is now 4.29 million yen (about $40,600), down from 5.11 million yen.</p><p><blockquote>为了提高销量，特斯拉将其Model 3轿车的要价下调了约20%。最便宜的Model 3现在售价为429万日元（约合4.06万美元），低于511万日元。</blockquote></p><p> Those prices are higher than in the U.S. market, though Tesla pays import duties to sell its cars in Japan. Tesla has also begun shipping cars to Japan from its new assembly plant in China, and the relative proximity of that facility compared with its factory in California reduces the cost of transport considerably.</p><p><blockquote>这些价格高于美国市场，尽管特斯拉在日本销售汽车需要缴纳进口税。特斯拉还开始从其在中国的新装配厂向日本运送汽车，与其在加州的工厂相比，该工厂相对较近，大大降低了运输成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Electric car competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车竞赛</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla faces new, homegrown competition in Japan from the upcoming Nissan Ariya. The shapely SUV uses similar running gear to the Nissan Leaf, and its price point is likely to undercut Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在日本面临来自即将推出的日产Ariya的新本土竞争。这款造型优美的SUV使用与日产Leaf类似的传动装置，其价格可能会削弱特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Japan is not a big electric car market. Fewer than 1% of new-vehicle registrations in 2019 were for electrified cars including plug-in hybrids, about half of the U.S. and well under the roughly 12.3% in the European Union.</p><p><blockquote>此外，日本并不是一个很大的电动汽车市场。2019年，包括插电式混合动力车在内的电动汽车的新车注册量不到1%，约占美国的一半，远低于欧盟约12.3%的比例。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has also trimmed prices in the U.S. on its Model 3 and its Model Y SUV by $1,000 and $2,000, respectively. The Model 3 now starts at $36,990, while the Model Y costs $3,000 more.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还将其Model 3和Model Y SUV在美国的价格分别下调了1,000美元和2,000美元。Model 3现在的起价为36,990美元，而Model Y的起价要高出3,000美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla is a dud in Japan<blockquote>为什么特斯拉在日本是个哑弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla is a dud in Japan<blockquote>为什么特斯拉在日本是个哑弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 16:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The automaker sold only 2,000 there last year</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商去年在那里仅售出2,000辆</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is the dominant electric car brand in most global markets, but not Japan. Despite the kind of density that would be friendly to electric vehicles and a generally eco-conscious population, Teslas have never caught on in the island nation.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉是大多数全球市场的主导电动汽车品牌，但不是日本。尽管特斯拉的密度对电动汽车和普遍具有环保意识的人口都很友好，但特斯拉从未在这个岛国流行起来。</blockquote></p><p> The automaker sold fewer than 2,000 cars in Japan last year, a tiny slice of the nearly half-million it delivered globally. Overall, automakers sold around 3.4 million cars in Japan last year, even as figures were down considerably due to the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商去年在日本的销量不到2,000辆，仅占其全球近50万辆汽车的一小部分。总体而言，汽车制造商去年在日本销售了约340万辆汽车，尽管由于冠状病毒大流行，这一数字大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> To boost sales there, Tesla has sliced asking prices on its Model 3 sedan by around 20%. The cheapest Model 3 is now 4.29 million yen (about $40,600), down from 5.11 million yen.</p><p><blockquote>为了提高销量，特斯拉将其Model 3轿车的要价下调了约20%。最便宜的Model 3现在售价为429万日元（约合4.06万美元），低于511万日元。</blockquote></p><p> Those prices are higher than in the U.S. market, though Tesla pays import duties to sell its cars in Japan. Tesla has also begun shipping cars to Japan from its new assembly plant in China, and the relative proximity of that facility compared with its factory in California reduces the cost of transport considerably.</p><p><blockquote>这些价格高于美国市场，尽管特斯拉在日本销售汽车需要缴纳进口税。特斯拉还开始从其在中国的新装配厂向日本运送汽车，与其在加州的工厂相比，该工厂相对较近，大大降低了运输成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Electric car competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车竞赛</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla faces new, homegrown competition in Japan from the upcoming Nissan Ariya. The shapely SUV uses similar running gear to the Nissan Leaf, and its price point is likely to undercut Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在日本面临来自即将推出的日产Ariya的新本土竞争。这款造型优美的SUV使用与日产Leaf类似的传动装置，其价格可能会削弱特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Japan is not a big electric car market. Fewer than 1% of new-vehicle registrations in 2019 were for electrified cars including plug-in hybrids, about half of the U.S. and well under the roughly 12.3% in the European Union.</p><p><blockquote>此外，日本并不是一个很大的电动汽车市场。2019年，包括插电式混合动力车在内的电动汽车的新车注册量不到1%，约占美国的一半，远低于欧盟约12.3%的比例。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has also trimmed prices in the U.S. on its Model 3 and its Model Y SUV by $1,000 and $2,000, respectively. The Model 3 now starts at $36,990, while the Model Y costs $3,000 more.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还将其Model 3和Model Y SUV在美国的价格分别下调了1,000美元和2,000美元。Model 3现在的起价为36,990美元，而Model Y的起价要高出3,000美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-tesla-is-a-dud-in-japan-11613754088?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-tesla-is-a-dud-in-japan-11613754088?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1173374581","content_text":"The automaker sold only 2,000 there last year\nTesla is the dominant electric car brand in most global markets, but not Japan. Despite the kind of density that would be friendly to electric vehicles and a generally eco-conscious population, Teslas have never caught on in the island nation.\nThe automaker sold fewer than 2,000 cars in Japan last year, a tiny slice of the nearly half-million it delivered globally. Overall, automakers sold around 3.4 million cars in Japan last year, even as figures were down considerably due to the coronavirus pandemic.\nTo boost sales there, Tesla has sliced asking prices on its Model 3 sedan by around 20%. The cheapest Model 3 is now 4.29 million yen (about $40,600), down from 5.11 million yen.\nThose prices are higher than in the U.S. market, though Tesla pays import duties to sell its cars in Japan. Tesla has also begun shipping cars to Japan from its new assembly plant in China, and the relative proximity of that facility compared with its factory in California reduces the cost of transport considerably.\nElectric car competition\nTesla faces new, homegrown competition in Japan from the upcoming Nissan Ariya. The shapely SUV uses similar running gear to the Nissan Leaf, and its price point is likely to undercut Tesla.\nAdditionally, Japan is not a big electric car market. Fewer than 1% of new-vehicle registrations in 2019 were for electrified cars including plug-in hybrids, about half of the U.S. and well under the roughly 12.3% in the European Union.\nTesla has also trimmed prices in the U.S. on its Model 3 and its Model Y SUV by $1,000 and $2,000, respectively. The Model 3 now starts at $36,990, while the Model Y costs $3,000 more.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369163368,"gmtCreate":1614008752454,"gmtModify":1634551539159,"author":{"id":"3573552298295815","authorId":"3573552298295815","name":"李ELPS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573552298295815","authorIdStr":"3573552298295815"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369163368","repostId":"1106666176","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385779225,"gmtCreate":1613578938567,"gmtModify":1634553059948,"author":{"id":"3573552298295815","authorId":"3573552298295815","name":"李ELPS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573552298295815","authorIdStr":"3573552298295815"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385779225","repostId":"1146053060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146053060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613540252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146053060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 13:37","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价反弹是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146053060","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an econ","content":"<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，由于经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期，大宗商品价格上涨，表现优于股票指数。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，过去三个月油价飙升 50% 引领的大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至已经开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这种周期会持续数年——通常大约十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都坚信我们正处于大宗商品全面超级周期之中，他们警告说，<i>超循环</i>对牛市过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍然可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs said that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，也就是首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示，大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行发出 “非常宽松 ”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品反弹的主要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计标准普尔高盛商品指数（GSCI）在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the S&P GSCI has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，S&P GSCI 的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了 25%，而标普500指数（仅）上涨了 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，在疫苗推出、欧佩克+减产以及今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期的推动下，油价从每桶40美元左右的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新型超级摩托车的一些司机来了……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，新的大宗商品超级周期可能才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>“以马尔科-科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）为首的摩根大通分析师在上周彭博社转载的一份报告中说：”我们认为，新一轮大宗商品上涨，尤其是石油上涨周期已经开始。</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>最近一次大宗商品超级周期在持续 12 年后于 2008 年结束，这得益于中国的超级支出和经济激增。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several potential factors underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素： 大流行后的全球经济增长、 “超宽松 ”的货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元疲软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车（EV）等能源转型市场的金属，以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预计的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie 去年 12 月表示，今年全球上游投资将保持低位，就像 2020 年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于 15 年来的最低水平，仅为 3000 亿美元，比危机前下降 30% 2019 年的投资水平。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“世界可能正在梦游进入供应紧缩，尽管这种情况会持续到 2021 年以后。到 2022 年底，石油需求将恢复到 1 亿桶/日以上，这将增加本十年后期出现材料供应缺口的风险，从而引发价格飙升，”WoodMac 董事长兼首席分析师西蒙-弗劳尔斯（Simon Flowers）说。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects 首席石油分析师阿姆里塔-森（Amrita Sen）本月早些时候告诉彭博社，“非常宽松的货币政策 ”和再通胀贸易可能会将明年的油价推高至每桶 100 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行 (Saxo Bank) 大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森 (Ole Hansen) 表示，截至 2 月 9 日当周，对冲基金对 24 种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了 5%，达到 270 万手的新高，代表名义价值 1,437 亿美元，评论最新的交易员承诺报告。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油的净多头头寸合计（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已增至 28 个月来的最高水平，而农业谷物行业的净多头头寸距离 2012 年 8 月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对再通胀对冲的持续需求将彭博商品指数推至 27 个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品已经反弹，支持看涨期权进入新超级周期的信号已经出现，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司 Ninety One 的投资组合经理乔治-切夫利（George Cheveley）告诉《金融时报》自然资源编辑尼尔-休姆（Neil Hume），我们现在看到的石油和大宗商品是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能 “还需要两到三年”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the Financial Post in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德-莫尔斯（Ed Morse）上周在接受《金融邮报》采访时表示，这轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为虽然投资可能会低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品 “材料很丰富”。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于后新冠疫情增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格的乐观情绪，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能有点为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价反弹是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价反弹是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Oilprice</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 13:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，由于经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期，大宗商品价格上涨，表现优于股票指数。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，过去三个月油价飙升 50% 引领的大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至已经开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这种周期会持续数年——通常大约十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都坚信我们正处于大宗商品全面超级周期之中，他们警告说，<i>超循环</i>对牛市过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍然可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs said that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，也就是首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示，大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行发出 “非常宽松 ”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品反弹的主要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计标准普尔高盛商品指数（GSCI）在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the S&P GSCI has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，S&P GSCI 的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了 25%，而标普500指数（仅）上涨了 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，在疫苗推出、欧佩克+减产以及今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期的推动下，油价从每桶40美元左右的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新型超级摩托车的一些司机来了……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，新的大宗商品超级周期可能才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>“以马尔科-科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）为首的摩根大通分析师在上周彭博社转载的一份报告中说：”我们认为，新一轮大宗商品上涨，尤其是石油上涨周期已经开始。</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>最近一次大宗商品超级周期在持续 12 年后于 2008 年结束，这得益于中国的超级支出和经济激增。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several potential factors underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素： 大流行后的全球经济增长、 “超宽松 ”的货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元疲软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车（EV）等能源转型市场的金属，以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预计的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie 去年 12 月表示，今年全球上游投资将保持低位，就像 2020 年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于 15 年来的最低水平，仅为 3000 亿美元，比危机前下降 30% 2019 年的投资水平。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“世界可能正在梦游进入供应紧缩，尽管这种情况会持续到 2021 年以后。到 2022 年底，石油需求将恢复到 1 亿桶/日以上，这将增加本十年后期出现材料供应缺口的风险，从而引发价格飙升，”WoodMac 董事长兼首席分析师西蒙-弗劳尔斯（Simon Flowers）说。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects 首席石油分析师阿姆里塔-森（Amrita Sen）本月早些时候告诉彭博社，“非常宽松的货币政策 ”和再通胀贸易可能会将明年的油价推高至每桶 100 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行 (Saxo Bank) 大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森 (Ole Hansen) 表示，截至 2 月 9 日当周，对冲基金对 24 种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了 5%，达到 270 万手的新高，代表名义价值 1,437 亿美元，评论最新的交易员承诺报告。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油的净多头头寸合计（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已增至 28 个月来的最高水平，而农业谷物行业的净多头头寸距离 2012 年 8 月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对再通胀对冲的持续需求将彭博商品指数推至 27 个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品已经反弹，支持看涨期权进入新超级周期的信号已经出现，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司 Ninety One 的投资组合经理乔治-切夫利（George Cheveley）告诉《金融时报》自然资源编辑尼尔-休姆（Neil Hume），我们现在看到的石油和大宗商品是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能 “还需要两到三年”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the Financial Post in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德-莫尔斯（Ed Morse）上周在接受《金融邮报》采访时表示，这轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为虽然投资可能会低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品 “材料很丰富”。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于后新冠疫情增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格的乐观情绪，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能有点为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html\">Oilprice</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146053060","content_text":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.\nThe commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.\nYet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the termsupercycleis too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.\nCommodity Rally\nAs early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs said that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.\nGoldman expected the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.\nOver the past three months, the S&P GSCI has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&P 500.\nOver the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.\nSome Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…\nAccording to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.\n“We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.\nThe latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.\nJPMorgan now sees several potential factors underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.\nThe International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).\nThis year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.\n“The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.\nThen, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.\nIn the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.\nThe combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.\nPost-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.\nBut Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?\nAlthough crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.\nWhat we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.\nThis bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the Financial Post in an interview last week.\nCommodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities 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16:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla is a dud in Japan<blockquote>为什么特斯拉在日本是个哑弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173374581","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The automaker sold only 2,000 there last year\nTesla is the dominant electric car brand in most globa","content":"<p>The automaker sold only 2,000 there last year</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商去年在那里仅售出2,000辆</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is the dominant electric car brand in most global markets, but not Japan. Despite the kind of density that would be friendly to electric vehicles and a generally eco-conscious population, Teslas have never caught on in the island nation.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉是大多数全球市场的主导电动汽车品牌，但不是日本。尽管特斯拉的密度对电动汽车和普遍具有环保意识的人口都很友好，但特斯拉从未在这个岛国流行起来。</blockquote></p><p> The automaker sold fewer than 2,000 cars in Japan last year, a tiny slice of the nearly half-million it delivered globally. Overall, automakers sold around 3.4 million cars in Japan last year, even as figures were down considerably due to the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商去年在日本的销量不到2,000辆，仅占其全球近50万辆汽车的一小部分。总体而言，汽车制造商去年在日本销售了约340万辆汽车，尽管由于冠状病毒大流行，这一数字大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> To boost sales there, Tesla has sliced asking prices on its Model 3 sedan by around 20%. The cheapest Model 3 is now 4.29 million yen (about $40,600), down from 5.11 million yen.</p><p><blockquote>为了提高销量，特斯拉将其Model 3轿车的要价下调了约20%。最便宜的Model 3现在售价为429万日元（约合4.06万美元），低于511万日元。</blockquote></p><p> Those prices are higher than in the U.S. market, though Tesla pays import duties to sell its cars in Japan. Tesla has also begun shipping cars to Japan from its new assembly plant in China, and the relative proximity of that facility compared with its factory in California reduces the cost of transport considerably.</p><p><blockquote>这些价格高于美国市场，尽管特斯拉在日本销售汽车需要缴纳进口税。特斯拉还开始从其在中国的新装配厂向日本运送汽车，与其在加州的工厂相比，该工厂相对较近，大大降低了运输成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Electric car competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车竞赛</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla faces new, homegrown competition in Japan from the upcoming Nissan Ariya. The shapely SUV uses similar running gear to the Nissan Leaf, and its price point is likely to undercut Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在日本面临来自即将推出的日产Ariya的新本土竞争。这款造型优美的SUV使用与日产Leaf类似的传动装置，其价格可能会削弱特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Japan is not a big electric car market. Fewer than 1% of new-vehicle registrations in 2019 were for electrified cars including plug-in hybrids, about half of the U.S. and well under the roughly 12.3% in the European Union.</p><p><blockquote>此外，日本并不是一个很大的电动汽车市场。2019年，包括插电式混合动力车在内的电动汽车的新车注册量不到1%，约占美国的一半，远低于欧盟约12.3%的比例。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has also trimmed prices in the U.S. on its Model 3 and its Model Y SUV by $1,000 and $2,000, respectively. The Model 3 now starts at $36,990, while the Model Y costs $3,000 more.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还将其Model 3和Model Y SUV在美国的价格分别下调了1,000美元和2,000美元。Model 3现在的起价为36,990美元，而Model Y的起价要高出3,000美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla is a dud in Japan<blockquote>为什么特斯拉在日本是个哑弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla is a dud in Japan<blockquote>为什么特斯拉在日本是个哑弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 16:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The automaker sold only 2,000 there last year</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商去年在那里仅售出2,000辆</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is the dominant electric car brand in most global markets, but not Japan. Despite the kind of density that would be friendly to electric vehicles and a generally eco-conscious population, Teslas have never caught on in the island nation.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉是大多数全球市场的主导电动汽车品牌，但不是日本。尽管特斯拉的密度对电动汽车和普遍具有环保意识的人口都很友好，但特斯拉从未在这个岛国流行起来。</blockquote></p><p> The automaker sold fewer than 2,000 cars in Japan last year, a tiny slice of the nearly half-million it delivered globally. Overall, automakers sold around 3.4 million cars in Japan last year, even as figures were down considerably due to the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商去年在日本的销量不到2,000辆，仅占其全球近50万辆汽车的一小部分。总体而言，汽车制造商去年在日本销售了约340万辆汽车，尽管由于冠状病毒大流行，这一数字大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> To boost sales there, Tesla has sliced asking prices on its Model 3 sedan by around 20%. The cheapest Model 3 is now 4.29 million yen (about $40,600), down from 5.11 million yen.</p><p><blockquote>为了提高销量，特斯拉将其Model 3轿车的要价下调了约20%。最便宜的Model 3现在售价为429万日元（约合4.06万美元），低于511万日元。</blockquote></p><p> Those prices are higher than in the U.S. market, though Tesla pays import duties to sell its cars in Japan. Tesla has also begun shipping cars to Japan from its new assembly plant in China, and the relative proximity of that facility compared with its factory in California reduces the cost of transport considerably.</p><p><blockquote>这些价格高于美国市场，尽管特斯拉在日本销售汽车需要缴纳进口税。特斯拉还开始从其在中国的新装配厂向日本运送汽车，与其在加州的工厂相比，该工厂相对较近，大大降低了运输成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Electric car competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车竞赛</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla faces new, homegrown competition in Japan from the upcoming Nissan Ariya. The shapely SUV uses similar running gear to the Nissan Leaf, and its price point is likely to undercut Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在日本面临来自即将推出的日产Ariya的新本土竞争。这款造型优美的SUV使用与日产Leaf类似的传动装置，其价格可能会削弱特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Japan is not a big electric car market. Fewer than 1% of new-vehicle registrations in 2019 were for electrified cars including plug-in hybrids, about half of the U.S. and well under the roughly 12.3% in the European Union.</p><p><blockquote>此外，日本并不是一个很大的电动汽车市场。2019年，包括插电式混合动力车在内的电动汽车的新车注册量不到1%，约占美国的一半，远低于欧盟约12.3%的比例。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has also trimmed prices in the U.S. on its Model 3 and its Model Y SUV by $1,000 and $2,000, respectively. The Model 3 now starts at $36,990, while the Model Y costs $3,000 more.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还将其Model 3和Model Y SUV在美国的价格分别下调了1,000美元和2,000美元。Model 3现在的起价为36,990美元，而Model Y的起价要高出3,000美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-tesla-is-a-dud-in-japan-11613754088?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-tesla-is-a-dud-in-japan-11613754088?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1173374581","content_text":"The automaker sold only 2,000 there last year\nTesla is the dominant electric car brand in most global markets, but not Japan. Despite the kind of density that would be friendly to electric vehicles and a generally eco-conscious population, Teslas have never caught on in the island nation.\nThe automaker sold fewer than 2,000 cars in Japan last year, a tiny slice of the nearly half-million it delivered globally. Overall, automakers sold around 3.4 million cars in Japan last year, even as figures were down considerably due to the coronavirus pandemic.\nTo boost sales there, Tesla has sliced asking prices on its Model 3 sedan by around 20%. The cheapest Model 3 is now 4.29 million yen (about $40,600), down from 5.11 million yen.\nThose prices are higher than in the U.S. market, though Tesla pays import duties to sell its cars in Japan. Tesla has also begun shipping cars to Japan from its new assembly plant in China, and the relative proximity of that facility compared with its factory in California reduces the cost of transport considerably.\nElectric car competition\nTesla faces new, homegrown competition in Japan from the upcoming Nissan Ariya. The shapely SUV uses similar running gear to the Nissan Leaf, and its price point is likely to undercut Tesla.\nAdditionally, Japan is not a big electric car market. Fewer than 1% of new-vehicle registrations in 2019 were for electrified cars including plug-in hybrids, about half of the U.S. and well under the roughly 12.3% in the European Union.\nTesla has also trimmed prices in the U.S. on its Model 3 and its Model Y SUV by $1,000 and $2,000, respectively. The Model 3 now starts at $36,990, while the Model Y costs $3,000 more.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385779225,"gmtCreate":1613578938567,"gmtModify":1634553059948,"author":{"id":"3573552298295815","authorId":"3573552298295815","name":"李ELPS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573552298295815","authorIdStr":"3573552298295815"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385779225","repostId":"1146053060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146053060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613540252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146053060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 13:37","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价反弹是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146053060","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an econ","content":"<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，由于经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期，大宗商品价格上涨，表现优于股票指数。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，过去三个月油价飙升 50% 引领的大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至已经开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这种周期会持续数年——通常大约十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都坚信我们正处于大宗商品全面超级周期之中，他们警告说，<i>超循环</i>对牛市过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍然可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs said that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，也就是首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示，大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行发出 “非常宽松 ”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品反弹的主要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计标准普尔高盛商品指数（GSCI）在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the S&P GSCI has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，S&P GSCI 的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了 25%，而标普500指数（仅）上涨了 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，在疫苗推出、欧佩克+减产以及今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期的推动下，油价从每桶40美元左右的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新型超级摩托车的一些司机来了……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，新的大宗商品超级周期可能才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>“以马尔科-科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）为首的摩根大通分析师在上周彭博社转载的一份报告中说：”我们认为，新一轮大宗商品上涨，尤其是石油上涨周期已经开始。</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>最近一次大宗商品超级周期在持续 12 年后于 2008 年结束，这得益于中国的超级支出和经济激增。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several potential factors underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素： 大流行后的全球经济增长、 “超宽松 ”的货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元疲软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车（EV）等能源转型市场的金属，以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预计的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie 去年 12 月表示，今年全球上游投资将保持低位，就像 2020 年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于 15 年来的最低水平，仅为 3000 亿美元，比危机前下降 30% 2019 年的投资水平。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“世界可能正在梦游进入供应紧缩，尽管这种情况会持续到 2021 年以后。到 2022 年底，石油需求将恢复到 1 亿桶/日以上，这将增加本十年后期出现材料供应缺口的风险，从而引发价格飙升，”WoodMac 董事长兼首席分析师西蒙-弗劳尔斯（Simon Flowers）说。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects 首席石油分析师阿姆里塔-森（Amrita Sen）本月早些时候告诉彭博社，“非常宽松的货币政策 ”和再通胀贸易可能会将明年的油价推高至每桶 100 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行 (Saxo Bank) 大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森 (Ole Hansen) 表示，截至 2 月 9 日当周，对冲基金对 24 种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了 5%，达到 270 万手的新高，代表名义价值 1,437 亿美元，评论最新的交易员承诺报告。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油的净多头头寸合计（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已增至 28 个月来的最高水平，而农业谷物行业的净多头头寸距离 2012 年 8 月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对再通胀对冲的持续需求将彭博商品指数推至 27 个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品已经反弹，支持看涨期权进入新超级周期的信号已经出现，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司 Ninety One 的投资组合经理乔治-切夫利（George Cheveley）告诉《金融时报》自然资源编辑尼尔-休姆（Neil Hume），我们现在看到的石油和大宗商品是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能 “还需要两到三年”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the Financial Post in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德-莫尔斯（Ed Morse）上周在接受《金融邮报》采访时表示，这轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为虽然投资可能会低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品 “材料很丰富”。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于后新冠疫情增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格的乐观情绪，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能有点为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价反弹是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价反弹是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Oilprice</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 13:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，由于经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期，大宗商品价格上涨，表现优于股票指数。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，过去三个月油价飙升 50% 引领的大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至已经开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这种周期会持续数年——通常大约十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都坚信我们正处于大宗商品全面超级周期之中，他们警告说，<i>超循环</i>对牛市过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍然可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs said that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，也就是首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示，大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行发出 “非常宽松 ”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品反弹的主要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计标准普尔高盛商品指数（GSCI）在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the S&P GSCI has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，S&P GSCI 的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了 25%，而标普500指数（仅）上涨了 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，在疫苗推出、欧佩克+减产以及今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期的推动下，油价从每桶40美元左右的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新型超级摩托车的一些司机来了……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，新的大宗商品超级周期可能才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>“以马尔科-科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）为首的摩根大通分析师在上周彭博社转载的一份报告中说：”我们认为，新一轮大宗商品上涨，尤其是石油上涨周期已经开始。</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>最近一次大宗商品超级周期在持续 12 年后于 2008 年结束，这得益于中国的超级支出和经济激增。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several potential factors underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素： 大流行后的全球经济增长、 “超宽松 ”的货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元疲软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车（EV）等能源转型市场的金属，以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预计的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie 去年 12 月表示，今年全球上游投资将保持低位，就像 2020 年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于 15 年来的最低水平，仅为 3000 亿美元，比危机前下降 30% 2019 年的投资水平。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“世界可能正在梦游进入供应紧缩，尽管这种情况会持续到 2021 年以后。到 2022 年底，石油需求将恢复到 1 亿桶/日以上，这将增加本十年后期出现材料供应缺口的风险，从而引发价格飙升，”WoodMac 董事长兼首席分析师西蒙-弗劳尔斯（Simon Flowers）说。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects 首席石油分析师阿姆里塔-森（Amrita Sen）本月早些时候告诉彭博社，“非常宽松的货币政策 ”和再通胀贸易可能会将明年的油价推高至每桶 100 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行 (Saxo Bank) 大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森 (Ole Hansen) 表示，截至 2 月 9 日当周，对冲基金对 24 种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了 5%，达到 270 万手的新高，代表名义价值 1,437 亿美元，评论最新的交易员承诺报告。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油的净多头头寸合计（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已增至 28 个月来的最高水平，而农业谷物行业的净多头头寸距离 2012 年 8 月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对再通胀对冲的持续需求将彭博商品指数推至 27 个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品已经反弹，支持看涨期权进入新超级周期的信号已经出现，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司 Ninety One 的投资组合经理乔治-切夫利（George Cheveley）告诉《金融时报》自然资源编辑尼尔-休姆（Neil Hume），我们现在看到的石油和大宗商品是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能 “还需要两到三年”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the Financial Post in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德-莫尔斯（Ed Morse）上周在接受《金融邮报》采访时表示，这轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为虽然投资可能会低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品 “材料很丰富”。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于后新冠疫情增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格的乐观情绪，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能有点为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html\">Oilprice</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146053060","content_text":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.\nThe commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.\nYet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the termsupercycleis too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.\nCommodity Rally\nAs early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs said that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.\nGoldman expected the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.\nOver the past three months, the S&P GSCI has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&P 500.\nOver the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.\nSome Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…\nAccording to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.\n“We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.\nThe latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.\nJPMorgan now sees several potential factors underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.\nThe International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).\nThis year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.\n“The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.\nThen, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.\nIn the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.\nThe combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.\nPost-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.\nBut Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?\nAlthough crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.\nWhat we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.\nThis bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the Financial Post in an interview last week.\nCommodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385779113,"gmtCreate":1613578916632,"gmtModify":1634553060069,"author":{"id":"3573552298295815","authorId":"3573552298295815","name":"李ELPS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573552298295815","authorIdStr":"3573552298295815"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gg","listText":"Gg","text":"Gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385779113","repostId":"1120526689","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382686395,"gmtCreate":1613441607717,"gmtModify":1634553675534,"author":{"id":"3573552298295815","authorId":"3573552298295815","name":"李ELPS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573552298295815","authorIdStr":"3573552298295815"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wah","listText":"Wah","text":"Wah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382686395","repostId":"2110026963","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389461817,"gmtCreate":1612795359739,"gmtModify":1703765154177,"author":{"id":"3573552298295815","authorId":"3573552298295815","name":"李ELPS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573552298295815","authorIdStr":"3573552298295815"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389461817","repostId":"1193450954","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
