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daryllee

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2021-11-13

Nice

Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度表现良好，自由现金流增加，提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote>

2021-11-12

Interesting

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2021-11-11

$Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF(META)$virtual profit?

2021-12-27

=)

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2021-12-06

Like please

Apple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc表示，苹果股票是一个有吸引力的买入。目标价定为191美元。</blockquote>

2021-11-19

Similar to GRAB?

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2022-01-29

Nice

Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>

2021-12-19

Okay

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-30

Like please

Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>

2021-12-30

I see

Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157223555","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve wi","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比他们之前预期的更激进地加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家现在预测，美联储今年将五次将其近零基准上调25个基点，而不是四次。到今年年底，该基准利率将升至1.25%-1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p><blockquote>高盛现在在3月、5月、7月、9月和12月看到了转变。他们还预计官员们将在6月份宣布开始缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，官员们已准备好在3月份加息，并在每次会议上为遏制40年来最快的通胀敞开了大门。周五的一份政府报告显示，截至12月的一年中，就业成本指数上涨了4%，为二十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p><blockquote>美联储启动数十年来最激进的全球紧缩政策</blockquote></p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在给客户的一份报告中表示：“工资增长高于美联储通胀目标水平的证据已经加强，我们已经上调了通胀路径。”“此外，鲍威尔主席本周早些时候的言论明确表示，美联储领导层对更激进的紧缩步伐持开放态度。”</blockquote></p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，如果市场状况发生变化或经济减速比预期快得多，美联储仍可能改变策略，或者如果通胀仍然足够高，美联储收紧货币政策的幅度甚至超过预期。</blockquote></p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们一致认为美联储将采取比之前押注更多的行动，但银行本周在政策制定者的激进程度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行目前预测2022年加息七次，法国巴黎银行预测加息六次，摩根大通和德意志银行预计加息五次。</blockquote></p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>野村控股公司甚至预计央行将在3月份加息50个基点，这将是自2000年以来的最大举措。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p><p><blockquote>彭博经济研究所坚持本月早些时候做出的五次加息的预测，尽管首席经济学家Anna Wong本周表示有六次加息的风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-29 16:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比他们之前预期的更激进地加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家现在预测，美联储今年将五次将其近零基准上调25个基点，而不是四次。到今年年底，该基准利率将升至1.25%-1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p><blockquote>高盛现在在3月、5月、7月、9月和12月看到了转变。他们还预计官员们将在6月份宣布开始缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，官员们已准备好在3月份加息，并在每次会议上为遏制40年来最快的通胀敞开了大门。周五的一份政府报告显示，截至12月的一年中，就业成本指数上涨了4%，为二十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p><blockquote>美联储启动数十年来最激进的全球紧缩政策</blockquote></p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在给客户的一份报告中表示：“工资增长高于美联储通胀目标水平的证据已经加强，我们已经上调了通胀路径。”“此外，鲍威尔主席本周早些时候的言论明确表示，美联储领导层对更激进的紧缩步伐持开放态度。”</blockquote></p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，如果市场状况发生变化或经济减速比预期快得多，美联储仍可能改变策略，或者如果通胀仍然足够高，美联储收紧货币政策的幅度甚至超过预期。</blockquote></p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们一致认为美联储将采取比之前押注更多的行动，但银行本周在政策制定者的激进程度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行目前预测2022年加息七次，法国巴黎银行预测加息六次，摩根大通和德意志银行预计加息五次。</blockquote></p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>野村控股公司甚至预计央行将在3月份加息50个基点，这将是自2000年以来的最大举措。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p><p><blockquote>彭博经济研究所坚持本月早些时候做出的五次加息的预测，尽管首席经济学家Anna Wong本周表示有六次加息的风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157223555","content_text":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630868994,"gmtCreate":1642776542089,"gmtModify":1642776542240,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630868994","repostId":"2205410130","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692129051,"gmtCreate":1640877659766,"gmtModify":1640877659898,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692129051","repostId":"1106092668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106092668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640876653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106092668?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106092668","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，称为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-30 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，称为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106092668","content_text":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent SelloffSummarySea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.IntroductionI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.GamingSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.Source: Earnings Call PresentationIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.E-CommerceSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.Source: The Author, compiled from AlexaShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnieOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.So why would a company with so much potential sell off?After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.FinTech & InvestmentsThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.ConclusionLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696367312,"gmtCreate":1640620260240,"gmtModify":1640620260395,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"=)","listText":"=)","text":"=)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696367312","repostId":"1191134006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693082951,"gmtCreate":1639929026745,"gmtModify":1639929026845,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693082951","repostId":"2192035909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690661878,"gmtCreate":1639664553540,"gmtModify":1639664553714,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690661878","repostId":"1121295991","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121295991","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639664163,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121295991?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 22:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why analysts love Apple right now<blockquote>为什么分析师现在喜欢苹果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121295991","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Apple’s  market capitalization is once again closing in on $3 trillion. If and when it hits the mark, which will require shares to reach $182.86, Apple will be in historic territory. And analysts are loving it.This month alone, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan, and Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI have raised their price targets on the stock to $200. And on Tuesday BofA Global Research’s Wamsi Mohan upgraded the stock from neutral to buy and raised his price target for ","content":"<p>Apple’s (AAPL) market capitalization is once again closing in on $3 trillion. If and when it hits the mark, which will require shares to reach $182.86, Apple will be in historic territory. And analysts are loving it.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL)的市值再次逼近3万亿美元。如果达到要求股价达到182.86美元的目标，苹果将处于历史高位。分析师们很喜欢它。</blockquote></p><p> This month alone, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan, and Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI have raised their price targets on the stock to $200. And on Tuesday BofA Global Research’s Wamsi Mohan upgraded the stock from neutral to buy and raised his price target for shares to $210.</p><p><blockquote>仅本月，摩根士丹利的Katy Huberty、摩根大通的Samik Chatterjee和Evercore ISI的Amit Daryanani就将该股的目标价提高至200美元。周二，美国银行全球研究部的瓦姆西·莫汉(Wamsi Mohan)将该股评级从中性上调至买入，并将股价目标上调至210美元。</blockquote></p><p> Several factors are spurring analysts to fawn over Apple: Optimism for Apple’s iPhone, its coming products including its rumored AR/VR headset, and the company’s ability to suck in consumers and keep them there through its services business.</p><p><blockquote>有几个因素促使分析师奉承苹果：对苹果iPhone的乐观情绪、其即将推出的产品（包括传闻中的AR/VR耳机），以及该公司通过其服务业务吸引消费者并将他们留在那里的能力。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect Apple to introduce an augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR) headset, either by the end of 2022 or early 2023,” Mohan wrote in a recent analyst note. “We view this technology as a game-changer as it will enable many new applications which will require high performance hardware and higher access speeds.”</p><p><blockquote>Mohan在最近的一份分析师报告中写道：“我们预计苹果将在2022年底或2023年初推出增强现实/虚拟现实（AR/VR）耳机。”“我们认为这项技术改变了游戏规则，因为它将支持许多需要高性能硬件和更高访问速度的新应用程序。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s AR/VR headset,according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, could cost upwards of $3,000 and be geared to gaming, entertainment, and communications. The headset has been rumored for some time, with Apple filing various patents related to the technology.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社的Mark Gurman称，苹果的AR/VR耳机价格可能超过3000美元，适用于游戏、娱乐和通信。这款耳机的传闻已经有一段时间了，苹果申请了与该技术相关的各种专利。</blockquote></p><p> “I think what a number of people and investors are thinking about is, ‘Hey, if they move to the glasses, the AR and VR glasses that a lot of people expect to see in '22, that's another opportunity to really build on this incredible ecosystem of device owners, and iOS, and Mac OS holders that really love their devices,’ ” TECHnalysis Research president Bob O’Donnell told Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为许多人和投资者正在考虑的是，‘嘿，如果他们转向眼镜，很多人期望在22年看到的AR和VR眼镜，这是另一个真正建立在这个基础上的机会TECHnalysis Research总裁Bob O’Donnell告诉雅虎财经直播。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s Services business, which includes its App Store, is one of the major sticking points the company has going for it. After all, if you own an iPhone, you’re going to buy apps, and when it’s time to get a new phone you’ll likely buy another iPhone to keep those apps.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的服务业务（包括其应用商店）是该公司发展的主要症结之一。毕竟，如果你有一部iPhone，你就会购买应用程序，当需要买一部新手机时，你可能会购买另一部iPhone来保留这些应用程序。</blockquote></p><p> The same idea would apply to the company’s AR/VR headset if Apple can wrangle the kind of third-party developer support it already enjoys on the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果能够争取到它在iPhone上已经享有的第三方开发者支持，同样的想法也适用于该公司的AR/VR耳机。</blockquote></p><p> “We see the potential for more Services monetization relative to iPad as use cases develop beyond gaming and remote servicing and evolve into a whole new way in which the world digitally interacts, which AR/VR experts we've spoken with view as the long-term killer AR/VR application,” Huberty wrote in a Dec. 7 analyst note.</p><p><blockquote>“随着用例超越游戏和远程服务的发展，并演变成一种全新的世界数字交互方式，我们看到了相对于iPad更多服务货币化的潜力，我们采访过的AR/VR专家将其视为长期杀手AR/VR应用，”Huberty在12月7日的分析师报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, Apple’s iPhone is still the major driver of Apple’s revenue. And despite the supply chain problems that have upended nearly every industry around the world, Apple seems to be coming out of the crunch.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果的iPhone仍然是苹果营收的主要驱动力。尽管供应链问题颠覆了全球几乎所有行业，但苹果似乎正在走出困境。</blockquote></p><p> “Our checks indicate iPhone production is surprising to the upside as Apple hasn't experienced the same level of manufacturing disruptions as in the September quarter,” Huberty wrote. “While upward trending COVID cases are worth monitoring given they could create new production bottlenecks, we view supply upside as a driver of better December quarter iPhone results.”</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂写道：“我们的检查表明，iPhone产量的增长令人惊讶，因为苹果并未经历与9月份季度相同程度的制造中断。”“虽然呈上升趋势的新冠病例值得监控，因为它们可能会造成新的生产瓶颈，但我们认为供应上升是iPhone 12月季度业绩更好的驱动因素。”</blockquote></p><p> Taken together, it’s clear analysts believe Apple’s new headset and related apps and services business, not to mention the iPhone, will serve as the catalysts that will not only push Apple over the $3 trillion mark, but send the company’s stock even higher.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，分析师显然认为苹果的新耳机以及相关应用和服务业务（更不用说iPhone）将成为催化剂，不仅将推动苹果突破3万亿美元大关，还将推动该公司股价进一步走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple's rise is testament to its strong business model,” Santosh Rao, Manhattan Venture Partners’ head of research, told Yahoo Finance Live. “It's an amazing story.”</p><p><blockquote>Manhattan Venture Partners研究主管Santosh Rao告诉雅虎财经直播：“苹果的崛起证明了其强大的商业模式。”“这是一个惊人的故事。”</blockquote></p><p> “We have the cars coming up down the road, the 5G refresh, and so many other things, the services business, of course, is very strong,” he said. “So overall combined, this is a company that's well situated.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们有汽车上路、5G更新以及许多其他事情，当然，服务业务非常强劲，”他说。“所以总的来说，这是一家处于有利地位的公司。”</blockquote></p><p> Now Apple just has to prove the analysts’ optimism correct.</p><p><blockquote>现在苹果只需要证明分析师的乐观是正确的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy analysts love Apple right now<blockquote>为什么分析师现在喜欢苹果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-16 22:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple’s (AAPL) market capitalization is once again closing in on $3 trillion. If and when it hits the mark, which will require shares to reach $182.86, Apple will be in historic territory. And analysts are loving it.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL)的市值再次逼近3万亿美元。如果达到要求股价达到182.86美元的目标，苹果将处于历史高位。分析师们很喜欢它。</blockquote></p><p> This month alone, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan, and Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI have raised their price targets on the stock to $200. And on Tuesday BofA Global Research’s Wamsi Mohan upgraded the stock from neutral to buy and raised his price target for shares to $210.</p><p><blockquote>仅本月，摩根士丹利的Katy Huberty、摩根大通的Samik Chatterjee和Evercore ISI的Amit Daryanani就将该股的目标价提高至200美元。周二，美国银行全球研究部的瓦姆西·莫汉(Wamsi Mohan)将该股评级从中性上调至买入，并将股价目标上调至210美元。</blockquote></p><p> Several factors are spurring analysts to fawn over Apple: Optimism for Apple’s iPhone, its coming products including its rumored AR/VR headset, and the company’s ability to suck in consumers and keep them there through its services business.</p><p><blockquote>有几个因素促使分析师奉承苹果：对苹果iPhone的乐观情绪、其即将推出的产品（包括传闻中的AR/VR耳机），以及该公司通过其服务业务吸引消费者并将他们留在那里的能力。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect Apple to introduce an augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR) headset, either by the end of 2022 or early 2023,” Mohan wrote in a recent analyst note. “We view this technology as a game-changer as it will enable many new applications which will require high performance hardware and higher access speeds.”</p><p><blockquote>Mohan在最近的一份分析师报告中写道：“我们预计苹果将在2022年底或2023年初推出增强现实/虚拟现实（AR/VR）耳机。”“我们认为这项技术改变了游戏规则，因为它将支持许多需要高性能硬件和更高访问速度的新应用程序。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s AR/VR headset,according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, could cost upwards of $3,000 and be geared to gaming, entertainment, and communications. The headset has been rumored for some time, with Apple filing various patents related to the technology.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社的Mark Gurman称，苹果的AR/VR耳机价格可能超过3000美元，适用于游戏、娱乐和通信。这款耳机的传闻已经有一段时间了，苹果申请了与该技术相关的各种专利。</blockquote></p><p> “I think what a number of people and investors are thinking about is, ‘Hey, if they move to the glasses, the AR and VR glasses that a lot of people expect to see in '22, that's another opportunity to really build on this incredible ecosystem of device owners, and iOS, and Mac OS holders that really love their devices,’ ” TECHnalysis Research president Bob O’Donnell told Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为许多人和投资者正在考虑的是，‘嘿，如果他们转向眼镜，很多人期望在22年看到的AR和VR眼镜，这是另一个真正建立在这个基础上的机会TECHnalysis Research总裁Bob O’Donnell告诉雅虎财经直播。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s Services business, which includes its App Store, is one of the major sticking points the company has going for it. After all, if you own an iPhone, you’re going to buy apps, and when it’s time to get a new phone you’ll likely buy another iPhone to keep those apps.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的服务业务（包括其应用商店）是该公司发展的主要症结之一。毕竟，如果你有一部iPhone，你就会购买应用程序，当需要买一部新手机时，你可能会购买另一部iPhone来保留这些应用程序。</blockquote></p><p> The same idea would apply to the company’s AR/VR headset if Apple can wrangle the kind of third-party developer support it already enjoys on the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果能够争取到它在iPhone上已经享有的第三方开发者支持，同样的想法也适用于该公司的AR/VR耳机。</blockquote></p><p> “We see the potential for more Services monetization relative to iPad as use cases develop beyond gaming and remote servicing and evolve into a whole new way in which the world digitally interacts, which AR/VR experts we've spoken with view as the long-term killer AR/VR application,” Huberty wrote in a Dec. 7 analyst note.</p><p><blockquote>“随着用例超越游戏和远程服务的发展，并演变成一种全新的世界数字交互方式，我们看到了相对于iPad更多服务货币化的潜力，我们采访过的AR/VR专家将其视为长期杀手AR/VR应用，”Huberty在12月7日的分析师报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, Apple’s iPhone is still the major driver of Apple’s revenue. And despite the supply chain problems that have upended nearly every industry around the world, Apple seems to be coming out of the crunch.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果的iPhone仍然是苹果营收的主要驱动力。尽管供应链问题颠覆了全球几乎所有行业，但苹果似乎正在走出困境。</blockquote></p><p> “Our checks indicate iPhone production is surprising to the upside as Apple hasn't experienced the same level of manufacturing disruptions as in the September quarter,” Huberty wrote. “While upward trending COVID cases are worth monitoring given they could create new production bottlenecks, we view supply upside as a driver of better December quarter iPhone results.”</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂写道：“我们的检查表明，iPhone产量的增长令人惊讶，因为苹果并未经历与9月份季度相同程度的制造中断。”“虽然呈上升趋势的新冠病例值得监控，因为它们可能会造成新的生产瓶颈，但我们认为供应上升是iPhone 12月季度业绩更好的驱动因素。”</blockquote></p><p> Taken together, it’s clear analysts believe Apple’s new headset and related apps and services business, not to mention the iPhone, will serve as the catalysts that will not only push Apple over the $3 trillion mark, but send the company’s stock even higher.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，分析师显然认为苹果的新耳机以及相关应用和服务业务（更不用说iPhone）将成为催化剂，不仅将推动苹果突破3万亿美元大关，还将推动该公司股价进一步走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple's rise is testament to its strong business model,” Santosh Rao, Manhattan Venture Partners’ head of research, told Yahoo Finance Live. “It's an amazing story.”</p><p><blockquote>Manhattan Venture Partners研究主管Santosh Rao告诉雅虎财经直播：“苹果的崛起证明了其强大的商业模式。”“这是一个惊人的故事。”</blockquote></p><p> “We have the cars coming up down the road, the 5G refresh, and so many other things, the services business, of course, is very strong,” he said. “So overall combined, this is a company that's well situated.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们有汽车上路、5G更新以及许多其他事情，当然，服务业务非常强劲，”他说。“所以总的来说，这是一家处于有利地位的公司。”</blockquote></p><p> Now Apple just has to prove the analysts’ optimism correct.</p><p><blockquote>现在苹果只需要证明分析师的乐观是正确的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-analysts-love-apple-right-now-140655190.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-analysts-love-apple-right-now-140655190.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121295991","content_text":"Apple’s (AAPL) market capitalization is once again closing in on $3 trillion. If and when it hits the mark, which will require shares to reach $182.86, Apple will be in historic territory. And analysts are loving it.\nThis month alone, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan, and Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI have raised their price targets on the stock to $200. And on Tuesday BofA Global Research’s Wamsi Mohan upgraded the stock from neutral to buy and raised his price target for shares to $210.\nSeveral factors are spurring analysts to fawn over Apple: Optimism for Apple’s iPhone, its coming products including its rumored AR/VR headset, and the company’s ability to suck in consumers and keep them there through its services business.\n“We expect Apple to introduce an augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR) headset, either by the end of 2022 or early 2023,” Mohan wrote in a recent analyst note. “We view this technology as a game-changer as it will enable many new applications which will require high performance hardware and higher access speeds.”\nApple’s AR/VR headset,according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, could cost upwards of $3,000 and be geared to gaming, entertainment, and communications. The headset has been rumored for some time, with Apple filing various patents related to the technology.\n“I think what a number of people and investors are thinking about is, ‘Hey, if they move to the glasses, the AR and VR glasses that a lot of people expect to see in '22, that's another opportunity to really build on this incredible ecosystem of device owners, and iOS, and Mac OS holders that really love their devices,’ ” TECHnalysis Research president Bob O’Donnell told Yahoo Finance Live.\nApple’s Services business, which includes its App Store, is one of the major sticking points the company has going for it. After all, if you own an iPhone, you’re going to buy apps, and when it’s time to get a new phone you’ll likely buy another iPhone to keep those apps.\nThe same idea would apply to the company’s AR/VR headset if Apple can wrangle the kind of third-party developer support it already enjoys on the iPhone.\n“We see the potential for more Services monetization relative to iPad as use cases develop beyond gaming and remote servicing and evolve into a whole new way in which the world digitally interacts, which AR/VR experts we've spoken with view as the long-term killer AR/VR application,” Huberty wrote in a Dec. 7 analyst note.\nOf course, Apple’s iPhone is still the major driver of Apple’s revenue. And despite the supply chain problems that have upended nearly every industry around the world, Apple seems to be coming out of the crunch.\n“Our checks indicate iPhone production is surprising to the upside as Apple hasn't experienced the same level of manufacturing disruptions as in the September quarter,” Huberty wrote. “While upward trending COVID cases are worth monitoring given they could create new production bottlenecks, we view supply upside as a driver of better December quarter iPhone results.”\nTaken together, it’s clear analysts believe Apple’s new headset and related apps and services business, not to mention the iPhone, will serve as the catalysts that will not only push Apple over the $3 trillion mark, but send the company’s stock even higher.\n“Apple's rise is testament to its strong business model,” Santosh Rao, Manhattan Venture Partners’ head of research, told Yahoo Finance Live. “It's an amazing story.”\n“We have the cars coming up down the road, the 5G refresh, and so many other things, the services business, of course, is very strong,” he said. “So overall combined, this is a company that's well situated.”\nNow Apple just has to prove the analysts’ optimism correct.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690669249,"gmtCreate":1639664434721,"gmtModify":1639664477892,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690669249","repostId":"1105934028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606032990,"gmtCreate":1638800169954,"gmtModify":1638800170119,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606032990","repostId":"1107494736","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107494736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638799191,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107494736?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 21:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc表示，苹果股票是一个有吸引力的买入。目标价定为191美元。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107494736","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the ","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一上涨，此前KeyBanc Capital Markets分析师以这家科技巨头服务领域的增长为由，对该股前景看好。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>分析师Brandon Nispel将该股跑赢大盘评级为191美元。该目标较苹果（股票代码：AAPL）周五161.84美元的收盘价上涨18%。周一盘前交易中，该股上涨1.2%，至163.73美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的42名分析师中，32名分析师给予该股买入或跑赢大盘评级，9名分析师给予持有，1名分析师给予跑输大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> “While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔周一写道：“虽然从历史估值来看，苹果公司价格昂贵，但我们发现苹果公司相对于其他大型股具有吸引力。”</blockquote></p><p> The analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师概述了他看涨的三个主要原因。Nispel认为iPhone销量尚未见顶，5G升级周期可能会推动苹果超过目前的峰值；他认为，该公司已设法增加其产品广度，以降低iPhone销售的可靠性；他预计服务的增长速度将是用户增长速度的数倍。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师预测，到2022财年第一季度末，苹果将拥有10.9亿部活跃iPhone和18亿部活跃安装设备。这分别同比增长7%和8%。</blockquote></p><p> “This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”</p><p><blockquote>Nispel写道：“这表明用户群健康增长，相对于美国以外的主要地区，苹果iPhone市场份额较低。”“随着安装基础的增长，更大的基础可以以较低的升级率支持更多的销售。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.</p><p><blockquote>Nispel写道，随着其他国家适应5G，苹果的国际市场在未来几年可能会增长更快，从而引发一波兼容硬件的升级浪潮。他估计，5G升级率每增加1%，iPhone销量就可能增加1100万部。</blockquote></p><p> As hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>随着硬件采用率的增长，苹果的服务业务也在增长。该部门包括苹果TV+、音乐、News+、AppleCare、广告和云等服务，在2021财年增长了27%。Nispel表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会成为关键的盈利驱动力，到2024年将增长到1000亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Nispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔承认，苹果的应用商店法律诉讼令人担忧，但“可能更多的是一个转变，而不是突破的结果”。该公司不得不对其应用商店指南进行适度修改，以应对法院裁决和监管变化，包括降低一些开发者的佣金。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会做出更多让步，例如允许开发商提供第三方支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计监管需要时间来实施，并相信苹果的竞争优势不太可能受到实质性损害，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc表示，苹果股票是一个有吸引力的买入。目标价定为191美元。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc表示，苹果股票是一个有吸引力的买入。目标价定为191美元。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-06 21:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一上涨，此前KeyBanc Capital Markets分析师以这家科技巨头服务领域的增长为由，对该股前景看好。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>分析师Brandon Nispel将该股跑赢大盘评级为191美元。该目标较苹果（股票代码：AAPL）周五161.84美元的收盘价上涨18%。周一盘前交易中，该股上涨1.2%，至163.73美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的42名分析师中，32名分析师给予该股买入或跑赢大盘评级，9名分析师给予持有，1名分析师给予跑输大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> “While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔周一写道：“虽然从历史估值来看，苹果公司价格昂贵，但我们发现苹果公司相对于其他大型股具有吸引力。”</blockquote></p><p> The analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师概述了他看涨的三个主要原因。Nispel认为iPhone销量尚未见顶，5G升级周期可能会推动苹果超过目前的峰值；他认为，该公司已设法增加其产品广度，以降低iPhone销售的可靠性；他预计服务的增长速度将是用户增长速度的数倍。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师预测，到2022财年第一季度末，苹果将拥有10.9亿部活跃iPhone和18亿部活跃安装设备。这分别同比增长7%和8%。</blockquote></p><p> “This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”</p><p><blockquote>Nispel写道：“这表明用户群健康增长，相对于美国以外的主要地区，苹果iPhone市场份额较低。”“随着安装基础的增长，更大的基础可以以较低的升级率支持更多的销售。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.</p><p><blockquote>Nispel写道，随着其他国家适应5G，苹果的国际市场在未来几年可能会增长更快，从而引发一波兼容硬件的升级浪潮。他估计，5G升级率每增加1%，iPhone销量就可能增加1100万部。</blockquote></p><p> As hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>随着硬件采用率的增长，苹果的服务业务也在增长。该部门包括苹果TV+、音乐、News+、AppleCare、广告和云等服务，在2021财年增长了27%。Nispel表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会成为关键的盈利驱动力，到2024年将增长到1000亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Nispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔承认，苹果的应用商店法律诉讼令人担忧，但“可能更多的是一个转变，而不是突破的结果”。该公司不得不对其应用商店指南进行适度修改，以应对法院裁决和监管变化，包括降低一些开发者的佣金。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会做出更多让步，例如允许开发商提供第三方支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计监管需要时间来实施，并相信苹果的竞争优势不太可能受到实质性损害，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-aapl-stock-attractive-buy-51638798446?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-aapl-stock-attractive-buy-51638798446?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107494736","content_text":"Apple shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.\nAnalyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.\nOf the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.\n“While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.\nThe analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.\nThe analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.\n“This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”\nApple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.\nAs hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.\nNispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.\n“We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603169323,"gmtCreate":1638374575774,"gmtModify":1638374575996,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree","listText":"Agree","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603169323","repostId":"603372743","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":603372743,"gmtCreate":1638370509601,"gmtModify":1638370632074,"author":{"id":"3574570898156338","authorId":"3574570898156338","name":"Juliusgreyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5a200b3c8827c1620e8f34ed8bb9f0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574570898156338","authorIdStr":"3574570898156338"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$</a>Grab is still too early to be vest for long term. It will be a crazy ride of ups n down&nbsp;after IPO","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$</a>Grab is still too early to be vest for long term. It will be a crazy ride of ups n down&nbsp;after IPO","text":"$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$Grab is still too early to be vest for long term. It will be a crazy ride of ups n down after IPO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603372743","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603984085,"gmtCreate":1638352252967,"gmtModify":1638352253199,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How did you get 227?","listText":"How did you get 227?","text":"How did you get 227?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603984085","repostId":"603993360","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":603993360,"gmtCreate":1638348785306,"gmtModify":1638349081858,"author":{"id":"3575932421297543","authorId":"3575932421297543","name":"mumu b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56c45ab59e10dbc9641137a77ea4b010","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575932421297543","authorIdStr":"3575932421297543"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$</a>tthis short rate is at 227% and short float 41%. Wtf. this is going to be the next gme.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$</a>tthis short rate is at 227% and short float 41%. Wtf. this is going to be the next gme.","text":"$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$tthis short rate is at 227% and short float 41%. Wtf. this is going to be the next gme.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603993360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609845468,"gmtCreate":1638270683785,"gmtModify":1638270683853,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609845468","repostId":"1147381319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147381319","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638263486,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147381319?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147381319","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla and NIO fell betw","content":"<p>Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla&nbsp;and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 2% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌。Canoo、Rivian、菲斯克、Lucid、理想汽车、特斯拉和蔚来跌幅在2%至3%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670da5061daa286e0cb1f79d91c7f025\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-30 17:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla&nbsp;and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 2% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌。Canoo、Rivian、菲斯克、Lucid、理想汽车、特斯拉和蔚来跌幅在2%至3%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670da5061daa286e0cb1f79d91c7f025\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","SEV":"Aptera Motors","NIO":"蔚来","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","FSR":"菲斯克","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147381319","content_text":"Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla and NIO fell between 2% and 3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"SEV":0.9,"LI":0.9,"GOEV":0.9,"FSR":0.9,"LCID":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609845207,"gmtCreate":1638270668372,"gmtModify":1638270668430,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609845207","repostId":"1143154253","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143154253","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638264916,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143154253?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 17:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wait For a Better Entry Point in Red-Hot Lucid Stock<blockquote>等待炙手可热的Lucid股票的更好切入点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143154253","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"LCID stock is overvalued, even for an up-and-coming EV player","content":"<p><div> Lucid Group’s(NASDAQ:LCID) third-quarter earnings report showed a significant bump in Lucid Air reservations and record liquidity. With the commencement of deliveries and a production ramp-up, LCID ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Lucid Group（纳斯达克股票代码：LCID）第三季度收益报告显示，Lucid Air预订量大幅增加，流动性创历史新高。随着交付的开始和产量的增加，LCID...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/wait-for-a-better-entry-point-in-red-hot-lcid-stock/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/wait-for-a-better-entry-point-in-red-hot-lcid-stock/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wait For a Better Entry Point in Red-Hot Lucid Stock<blockquote>等待炙手可热的Lucid股票的更好切入点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWait For a Better Entry Point in Red-Hot Lucid Stock<blockquote>等待炙手可热的Lucid股票的更好切入点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 17:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Lucid Group’s(NASDAQ:LCID) third-quarter earnings report showed a significant bump in Lucid Air reservations and record liquidity. With the commencement of deliveries and a production ramp-up, LCID ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Lucid Group（纳斯达克股票代码：LCID）第三季度收益报告显示，Lucid Air预订量大幅增加，流动性创历史新高。随着交付的开始和产量的增加，LCID...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/wait-for-a-better-entry-point-in-red-hot-lcid-stock/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/wait-for-a-better-entry-point-in-red-hot-lcid-stock/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/wait-for-a-better-entry-point-in-red-hot-lcid-stock/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/wait-for-a-better-entry-point-in-red-hot-lcid-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143154253","content_text":"Lucid Group’s(NASDAQ:LCID) third-quarter earnings report showed a significant bump in Lucid Air reservations and record liquidity. With the commencement of deliveries and a production ramp-up, LCID stock is one of the best electric vehicle plays in the market. However, due to its recent success, it is valued like an industry stalwart rather than a newcomer.\nOn Sept. 29, the EV startup announced it would begin deliveries of its Lucid Air Dream Edition in late October. The luxury sedan boasts a range of 520 miles per charge. This makes it the longest-range EV rated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). It’s also noteworthy because it beat the range of Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA) more expensive Model S by over 100 miles.\nThe first Lucid Air Dream Editions were delivered on Oct. 30, and the vehicle has been getting rave reviews.\nLCID stock has surged an incredible 105% in the past two months. With shares trading at a remarkably lofty valuation, it’s best to wait for a correction before getting in.\nLucid Looks to Expand Capacity as Reservations Increase\nAt the end of September, the company said Lucid Air reservations stood at 13,000. By mid-November, Lucid had more than 17,000 reservations. No doubt some were persuaded by the EPA rating, along with the company’s successful marketing eventcovering the launch of the Lucid Air.\nWhat’s more, the day after the company announced its updated reservation numbers, the Lucid Air won the 2022 MotorTrend Car of the Year award.\nAs demand increases, Lucid is looking to increase production capacity. The company plans to add 2.85 million square feet of manufacturing space to its Advanced Manufacturing Plant (AMP-1) in Casa Grande, Ariz. The will increase the facility’s maximum production capacity from a projected 34,000 cars a year currently to 90,000 by the end of 2023.\nThe Lucid Air has a starting price of $77,400 (it will run consumers a little under $70,000 after a federal tax credit). Assuming the company makes 34,000 EVs next year, it could generate more than $2.6 billion in revenue. And that doesn’t include customization packages or any add-ons, which should increase the final sales figure by a considerable margin.\nLucid Sports an Attractive Balance Sheet\nLucid ended the third quarter with a cash balance of $4.8 billion after adding $4.4 billion in new investments. Consequently, the company’s financial flexibility has improved considerably, enabling it to finance its expansion with relative ease. Moreover, it currently has minimal debt on its balance sheet.\nWhile the company has recognized less than $1 million in sales so far, that situation should be dramatically different next year as more cars are delivered to drivers. However, Lucid will continue to post losses and negative cash flows for the foreseeable future. For the most recent quarter, losses from operations totaled $497.1 million, while it posted free cash flows of -$384.4 million.\nLosses are to be expected at this stage in the game, but there are a few risks investors need to be aware of. These include any production troubles the company encounters, as well as continued supply chain disruptions that could result in material or parts shortages. Perhaps the biggest potential long-term risk, though, is the entry of new competitors in the luxury EV space. All eyes are on the Lucid Air for now, but that could quickly change.\nThe Bottom Line on LCID Stock\nSo far, Lucid Group has delivered on its promises and is seeing rising demand for its award-winning electric vehicle. However, with a market cap larger than that of Ford(NYSE:F) and General Motors(NYSE:GM), this basically pre-revenue startup is trading at an unreasonable valuation.\nInvestors should wait for a better entry point before buying LCID stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877685996,"gmtCreate":1637924969807,"gmtModify":1637924969807,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877685996","repostId":"1108962994","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108962994","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637912343,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108962994?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 15:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Has Cathie Wood Lost Her Touch?<blockquote>凯西·伍德失去联系了吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108962994","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"As stock markets have stayed near record levels, the star asset manager's ARK Invest funds have struggled.","content":"<p>Stocks were mostly higher heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, as investors were able to overcome some early nervousness to claw back ground from losses at the beginning of the session. The&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>&nbsp;still fell slightly on the day, but both the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>&nbsp;managed to post modest gains.</p><p><blockquote>感恩节假期前，股市大多走高，因为投资者能够克服早期的紧张情绪，从盘初的跌幅中收复失地。The<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>日仍小幅下跌，但两<b>标普500</b>和<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>设法取得了适度的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd61fee96cd981d55bc6c0a4a541d9b\" tg-width=\"1149\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：雅虎！金融。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The day's moves continued the overall strong performance from the stock market in 2021. Yet even though major indexes are up substantially so far this year, Cathie Wood hasn't been as fortunate. Her ARK Invest&nbsp;exchange-traded funds&nbsp;haven't matched the market's performance in 2021, and some wonder if the revered manager has lost her touch. We'll look more closely at that question below.</p><p><blockquote>当天的走势延续了2021年股市的整体强劲表现。然而，尽管今年迄今为止主要股指大幅上涨，凯西·伍德却没那么幸运。她的ARK Invest交易所交易基金未能与2021年的市场表现相匹配，一些人怀疑这位受人尊敬的经理是否已经失去了影响力。我们将在下面更仔细地研究这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/690a1e671906b4e173308a05c1d903f0\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A down year for ARK Innovation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>方舟创新低迷的一年</b></blockquote></p><p> It's been a tough year to be a&nbsp;Cathie Wood investor. For the most part, many of the high-growth stocks that played prominent roles in the&nbsp;<b>ARK Innovation ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:ARKK)&nbsp;and other Wood-led ETFs topped out early in the year. That's left investors slowly but steadily losing ground throughout much of 2021, with ARK Innovation falling about 15% year to date.</p><p><blockquote>对于凯西·伍德投资者来说，这是艰难的一年。在很大程度上，许多在经济增长中发挥突出作用的高增长股票<b>方舟创新ETF</b>（NYSEMKT：ARKK）和其他木材主导的ETF在今年年初见顶。这使得投资者在2021年的大部分时间里缓慢但稳步地下跌，ARK Innovation今年迄今下跌了约15%。</blockquote></p><p> However, a closer look at the stocks involved shows that Wood's performance has been much more mixed. Stocks like&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Shopify</b>&nbsp;have continued to gain ground for ARK Innovation, helping to offset losses elsewhere. Yet poor performance from telehealth pioneer&nbsp;<b>Teladoc Health</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Zoom Video Communications</b>&nbsp;has weighed on total returns, and pullbacks in other stocks that were high-flyers earlier in the year haven't helped.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仔细观察所涉及的股票就会发现，伍德的表现好坏参半。股票喜欢<b>特斯拉</b>和<b>Shopify</b>方舟创新继续取得进展，帮助抵消了其他地方的损失。然而远程医疗先驱表现不佳<b>Teladoc健康</b>和<b>Zoom Video通信公司</b>拖累了总回报，而今年早些时候其他表现强劲的股票的回调也无济于事。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Mixed performance elsewhere</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他地方表现好坏参半</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, Wood's other funds show a much more varied track record. The biggest losses have come for the&nbsp;<b>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:ARKG), which is down more than 30% for the year as four of its top five holdings have fallen from year-ago levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，伍德的其他基金表现出更加多样化的业绩记录。最大的损失已经到来<b>方舟基因组革命ETF</b>(NYSEMKT：ARKG)今年以来股价下跌超过30%，其前五大持股中有四只较去年同期水平下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, declines for ARK Invest's ETFs in the fintech and next-generation internet field are down just a few percent for the year. And the autonomous technology and robotics fund has actually gained ground, albeit trailing the broader market's return year to date.</p><p><blockquote>相反，ARK Invest在金融科技和下一代互联网领域的ETF今年的跌幅仅为百分之几。自主技术和机器人基金实际上已经取得了进展，尽管今年迄今为止的回报率落后于大盘。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't count Cathie Wood out</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不要把凯西·伍德排除在外</b></blockquote></p><p> The anti-Wood sentiment has gotten so prominent that a new exchange-traded fund has come out that runs explicitly counter to her strategy.<b>Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF</b>&nbsp;just came out in early November, with the express goal of shorting the stocks that Wood owns in ARK Innovation.</p><p><blockquote>反伍德情绪变得如此突出，以至于一只新的交易所交易基金已经问世，这显然与她的策略背道而驰。<b>塔特尔资本空头创新ETF</b>11月初刚刚出来，明确目标是做空Wood持有的ARK Innovation股票。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Wood is ready to double down on her picks. Indeed, a recent suggestion from the ARK Invest leader&nbsp; would combine her pro-innovation strategy with short-selling of major stocks in benchmarks like the S&amp;P 500. That could boost returns, albeit at the price of even higher potential volatility in performance. Even Wood acknowledges the risks, having referred to the strategy in an interview on CNBC as \"ARK on steroids.\"</p><p><blockquote>然而，伍德准备在她的选择上加倍努力。事实上，方舟投资领袖最近提出的一项建议是将她的支持创新策略与卖空标普500等基准中的主要股票结合起来。这可能会提高回报，尽管代价是业绩的潜在波动性更大。就连伍德也承认存在风险，他在接受CNBC采访时将这一策略称为“服用类固醇的方舟”。</blockquote></p><p> Most importantly, focusing on 2021's performance unfairly leaves out Wood's amazing gains in 2020, which have led to three-year returns on ARK funds ranging from 134% to 195%. A return to that pace of growth might take a while, but Wood seems optimistic that her stock picks have the potential to generate strong gains for shareholders with the patience and discipline to stick with them.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，关注2021年的业绩不公平地忽略了伍德在2020年的惊人收益，这导致ARK基金的三年回报率在134%至195%之间。恢复这种增长速度可能需要一段时间，但伍德似乎很乐观，她选择的股票有可能为有耐心和纪律坚持下去的股东带来强劲收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Has Cathie Wood Lost Her Touch?<blockquote>凯西·伍德失去联系了吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHas Cathie Wood Lost Her Touch?<blockquote>凯西·伍德失去联系了吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-26 15:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks were mostly higher heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, as investors were able to overcome some early nervousness to claw back ground from losses at the beginning of the session. The&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>&nbsp;still fell slightly on the day, but both the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>&nbsp;managed to post modest gains.</p><p><blockquote>感恩节假期前，股市大多走高，因为投资者能够克服早期的紧张情绪，从盘初的跌幅中收复失地。The<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>日仍小幅下跌，但两<b>标普500</b>和<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>设法取得了适度的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd61fee96cd981d55bc6c0a4a541d9b\" tg-width=\"1149\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：雅虎！金融。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The day's moves continued the overall strong performance from the stock market in 2021. Yet even though major indexes are up substantially so far this year, Cathie Wood hasn't been as fortunate. Her ARK Invest&nbsp;exchange-traded funds&nbsp;haven't matched the market's performance in 2021, and some wonder if the revered manager has lost her touch. We'll look more closely at that question below.</p><p><blockquote>当天的走势延续了2021年股市的整体强劲表现。然而，尽管今年迄今为止主要股指大幅上涨，凯西·伍德却没那么幸运。她的ARK Invest交易所交易基金未能与2021年的市场表现相匹配，一些人怀疑这位受人尊敬的经理是否已经失去了影响力。我们将在下面更仔细地研究这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/690a1e671906b4e173308a05c1d903f0\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A down year for ARK Innovation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>方舟创新低迷的一年</b></blockquote></p><p> It's been a tough year to be a&nbsp;Cathie Wood investor. For the most part, many of the high-growth stocks that played prominent roles in the&nbsp;<b>ARK Innovation ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:ARKK)&nbsp;and other Wood-led ETFs topped out early in the year. That's left investors slowly but steadily losing ground throughout much of 2021, with ARK Innovation falling about 15% year to date.</p><p><blockquote>对于凯西·伍德投资者来说，这是艰难的一年。在很大程度上，许多在经济增长中发挥突出作用的高增长股票<b>方舟创新ETF</b>（NYSEMKT：ARKK）和其他木材主导的ETF在今年年初见顶。这使得投资者在2021年的大部分时间里缓慢但稳步地下跌，ARK Innovation今年迄今下跌了约15%。</blockquote></p><p> However, a closer look at the stocks involved shows that Wood's performance has been much more mixed. Stocks like&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Shopify</b>&nbsp;have continued to gain ground for ARK Innovation, helping to offset losses elsewhere. Yet poor performance from telehealth pioneer&nbsp;<b>Teladoc Health</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Zoom Video Communications</b>&nbsp;has weighed on total returns, and pullbacks in other stocks that were high-flyers earlier in the year haven't helped.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仔细观察所涉及的股票就会发现，伍德的表现好坏参半。股票喜欢<b>特斯拉</b>和<b>Shopify</b>方舟创新继续取得进展，帮助抵消了其他地方的损失。然而远程医疗先驱表现不佳<b>Teladoc健康</b>和<b>Zoom Video通信公司</b>拖累了总回报，而今年早些时候其他表现强劲的股票的回调也无济于事。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Mixed performance elsewhere</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他地方表现好坏参半</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, Wood's other funds show a much more varied track record. The biggest losses have come for the&nbsp;<b>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:ARKG), which is down more than 30% for the year as four of its top five holdings have fallen from year-ago levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，伍德的其他基金表现出更加多样化的业绩记录。最大的损失已经到来<b>方舟基因组革命ETF</b>(NYSEMKT：ARKG)今年以来股价下跌超过30%，其前五大持股中有四只较去年同期水平下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, declines for ARK Invest's ETFs in the fintech and next-generation internet field are down just a few percent for the year. And the autonomous technology and robotics fund has actually gained ground, albeit trailing the broader market's return year to date.</p><p><blockquote>相反，ARK Invest在金融科技和下一代互联网领域的ETF今年的跌幅仅为百分之几。自主技术和机器人基金实际上已经取得了进展，尽管今年迄今为止的回报率落后于大盘。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't count Cathie Wood out</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不要把凯西·伍德排除在外</b></blockquote></p><p> The anti-Wood sentiment has gotten so prominent that a new exchange-traded fund has come out that runs explicitly counter to her strategy.<b>Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF</b>&nbsp;just came out in early November, with the express goal of shorting the stocks that Wood owns in ARK Innovation.</p><p><blockquote>反伍德情绪变得如此突出，以至于一只新的交易所交易基金已经问世，这显然与她的策略背道而驰。<b>塔特尔资本空头创新ETF</b>11月初刚刚出来，明确目标是做空Wood持有的ARK Innovation股票。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Wood is ready to double down on her picks. Indeed, a recent suggestion from the ARK Invest leader&nbsp; would combine her pro-innovation strategy with short-selling of major stocks in benchmarks like the S&amp;P 500. That could boost returns, albeit at the price of even higher potential volatility in performance. Even Wood acknowledges the risks, having referred to the strategy in an interview on CNBC as \"ARK on steroids.\"</p><p><blockquote>然而，伍德准备在她的选择上加倍努力。事实上，方舟投资领袖最近提出的一项建议是将她的支持创新策略与卖空标普500等基准中的主要股票结合起来。这可能会提高回报，尽管代价是业绩的潜在波动性更大。就连伍德也承认存在风险，他在接受CNBC采访时将这一策略称为“服用类固醇的方舟”。</blockquote></p><p> Most importantly, focusing on 2021's performance unfairly leaves out Wood's amazing gains in 2020, which have led to three-year returns on ARK funds ranging from 134% to 195%. A return to that pace of growth might take a while, but Wood seems optimistic that her stock picks have the potential to generate strong gains for shareholders with the patience and discipline to stick with them.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，关注2021年的业绩不公平地忽略了伍德在2020年的惊人收益，这导致ARK基金的三年回报率在134%至195%之间。恢复这种增长速度可能需要一段时间，但伍德似乎很乐观，她选择的股票有可能为有耐心和纪律坚持下去的股东带来强劲收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/24/has-cathie-wood-lost-her-touch/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","ARKQ":"ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/24/has-cathie-wood-lost-her-touch/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108962994","content_text":"Stocks were mostly higher heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, as investors were able to overcome some early nervousness to claw back ground from losses at the beginning of the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average still fell slightly on the day, but both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite managed to post modest gains.\nDATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.\nThe day's moves continued the overall strong performance from the stock market in 2021. Yet even though major indexes are up substantially so far this year, Cathie Wood hasn't been as fortunate. Her ARK Invest exchange-traded funds haven't matched the market's performance in 2021, and some wonder if the revered manager has lost her touch. We'll look more closely at that question below.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nA down year for ARK Innovation\nIt's been a tough year to be a Cathie Wood investor. For the most part, many of the high-growth stocks that played prominent roles in the ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEMKT:ARKK) and other Wood-led ETFs topped out early in the year. That's left investors slowly but steadily losing ground throughout much of 2021, with ARK Innovation falling about 15% year to date.\nHowever, a closer look at the stocks involved shows that Wood's performance has been much more mixed. Stocks like Tesla and Shopify have continued to gain ground for ARK Innovation, helping to offset losses elsewhere. Yet poor performance from telehealth pioneer Teladoc Health and Zoom Video Communications has weighed on total returns, and pullbacks in other stocks that were high-flyers earlier in the year haven't helped.\nMixed performance elsewhere\nMoreover, Wood's other funds show a much more varied track record. The biggest losses have come for the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF(NYSEMKT:ARKG), which is down more than 30% for the year as four of its top five holdings have fallen from year-ago levels.\nConversely, declines for ARK Invest's ETFs in the fintech and next-generation internet field are down just a few percent for the year. And the autonomous technology and robotics fund has actually gained ground, albeit trailing the broader market's return year to date.\nDon't count Cathie Wood out\nThe anti-Wood sentiment has gotten so prominent that a new exchange-traded fund has come out that runs explicitly counter to her strategy.Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF just came out in early November, with the express goal of shorting the stocks that Wood owns in ARK Innovation.\nYet Wood is ready to double down on her picks. Indeed, a recent suggestion from the ARK Invest leader  would combine her pro-innovation strategy with short-selling of major stocks in benchmarks like the S&P 500. That could boost returns, albeit at the price of even higher potential volatility in performance. Even Wood acknowledges the risks, having referred to the strategy in an interview on CNBC as \"ARK on steroids.\"\nMost importantly, focusing on 2021's performance unfairly leaves out Wood's amazing gains in 2020, which have led to three-year returns on ARK funds ranging from 134% to 195%. A return to that pace of growth might take a while, but Wood seems optimistic that her stock picks have the potential to generate strong gains for shareholders with the patience and discipline to stick with them.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKF":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"ARKQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872212325,"gmtCreate":1637537719390,"gmtModify":1637537719390,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Whao","listText":"Whao","text":"Whao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872212325","repostId":"1173318474","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872108746,"gmtCreate":1637454209673,"gmtModify":1637454209732,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍&nbsp;","listText":"👍&nbsp;","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872108746","repostId":"1143065747","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143065747","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637383902,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143065747?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-20 12:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPAC Altimeter Growth jumps after setting vote date for Grab deal<blockquote>SPAC Altimeter在确定Grab交易投票日期后增长强劲</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143065747","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp.  rose 4.6% after it set a Nov. 30 date for holders to vote on its deal t","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp. </a> rose 4.6% after it set a Nov. 30 date for holders to vote on its deal to take Southeast Asia ride-hailing giant Grab public.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">SPAC高度计增长公司。</a>该公司将11月30日定为持有人就东南亚网约车巨头Grab上市交易进行投票的日期，股价上涨4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459798d9c6d2d0c428941e1ee2937f4b\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"635\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Brad Gerstner's AGC announced that that the SEC declared effective the Form F-4 registration statement of Grab Holdings, according to a release.</p><p><blockquote>据一份新闻稿称，布拉德·郭士纳(Brad Gerstner)的AGC宣布，SEC宣布Grab Holdings的F-4表格注册声明生效。</blockquote></p><p> Grab is Southeast Asia's most valuable startup and is set to undergo a merger with Altimeter (AGC) at a valuation of $40B in the fourth quarter, pushed back after a delay.</p><p><blockquote>Grab是东南亚最有价值的初创公司，计划在第四季度以400亿美元的估值与Altimeter(AGC)进行合并，但在推迟后被推迟。</blockquote></p><p> The deal is expected to be the largest-ever U.S. equity offering by a Southeast Asian company. A public debut from Grab will offer investors access to a regional consumer market of more than 655M people across countries including Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>这笔交易预计将是东南亚公司有史以来在美国最大的股票发行。Grab的首次公开亮相将为投资者提供进入印度尼西亚、泰国和越南等国家超过6.55亿人口的区域消费市场的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPAC Altimeter Growth jumps after setting vote date for Grab deal<blockquote>SPAC Altimeter在确定Grab交易投票日期后增长强劲</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPAC Altimeter Growth jumps after setting vote date for Grab deal<blockquote>SPAC Altimeter在确定Grab交易投票日期后增长强劲</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-20 12:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp. </a> rose 4.6% after it set a Nov. 30 date for holders to vote on its deal to take Southeast Asia ride-hailing giant Grab public.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">SPAC高度计增长公司。</a>该公司将11月30日定为持有人就东南亚网约车巨头Grab上市交易进行投票的日期，股价上涨4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459798d9c6d2d0c428941e1ee2937f4b\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"635\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Brad Gerstner's AGC announced that that the SEC declared effective the Form F-4 registration statement of Grab Holdings, according to a release.</p><p><blockquote>据一份新闻稿称，布拉德·郭士纳(Brad Gerstner)的AGC宣布，SEC宣布Grab Holdings的F-4表格注册声明生效。</blockquote></p><p> Grab is Southeast Asia's most valuable startup and is set to undergo a merger with Altimeter (AGC) at a valuation of $40B in the fourth quarter, pushed back after a delay.</p><p><blockquote>Grab是东南亚最有价值的初创公司，计划在第四季度以400亿美元的估值与Altimeter(AGC)进行合并，但在推迟后被推迟。</blockquote></p><p> The deal is expected to be the largest-ever U.S. equity offering by a Southeast Asian company. A public debut from Grab will offer investors access to a regional consumer market of more than 655M people across countries including Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>这笔交易预计将是东南亚公司有史以来在美国最大的股票发行。Grab的首次公开亮相将为投资者提供进入印度尼西亚、泰国和越南等国家超过6.55亿人口的区域消费市场的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3773032-spac-altimeter-growth-jumps-after-sending-vote-date-for-grab-deal\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3773032-spac-altimeter-growth-jumps-after-sending-vote-date-for-grab-deal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143065747","content_text":"SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp.  rose 4.6% after it set a Nov. 30 date for holders to vote on its deal to take Southeast Asia ride-hailing giant Grab public.\n\nBrad Gerstner's AGC announced that that the SEC declared effective the Form F-4 registration statement of Grab Holdings, according to a release.\nGrab is Southeast Asia's most valuable startup and is set to undergo a merger with Altimeter (AGC) at a valuation of $40B in the fourth quarter, pushed back after a delay.\nThe deal is expected to be the largest-ever U.S. equity offering by a Southeast Asian company. A public debut from Grab will offer investors access to a regional consumer market of more than 655M people across countries including Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AGC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876894415,"gmtCreate":1637288651885,"gmtModify":1637288651885,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Similar to GRAB?","listText":"Similar to GRAB?","text":"Similar to GRAB?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876894415","repostId":"2184189467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871640345,"gmtCreate":1637068643108,"gmtModify":1637068643310,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree","listText":"Agree","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871640345","repostId":"871655255","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":871655255,"gmtCreate":1637068431014,"gmtModify":1637068435397,"author":{"id":"3575044403730346","authorId":"3575044403730346","name":"暴风里的鸡蛋壳","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58577646a03856301cefa4a1e36ce4fd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575044403730346","authorIdStr":"3575044403730346"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 老虎软件里当日盈亏的显示就是搞笑用的","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 老虎软件里当日盈亏的显示就是搞笑用的","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 老虎软件里当日盈亏的显示就是搞笑用的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871655255","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871375927,"gmtCreate":1637031452356,"gmtModify":1637031452455,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$</a>1 agc for 1 grab shares?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$</a>1 agc for 1 grab shares?&nbsp;","text":"$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$1 agc for 1 grab shares?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871375927","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873002602,"gmtCreate":1636785467012,"gmtModify":1636785467107,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873002602","repostId":"1129543601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129543601","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636770982,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129543601?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度表现良好，自由现金流增加，提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129543601","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.</li>  <li>Palantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.</li>  <li>Palantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.</li>  <li>Palantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd5d395baf412802ef5e554f0efa64b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的收入环比增长36%，同时产生1.19亿美元的自由现金流，利润率为30%。</li><li>Palantir第三季度商业收入同比增长37%，政府收入同比增长34%，显示出强劲的前瞻性增长趋势。</li><li>Palantir在2021年第三季度完成了54笔交易，合同价值至少为100万美元，其中33笔价值超过500万美元，18笔价值超过1000万美元。</li><li>Palantir再次上调指引，预计收入同比增长40%，达到15.27亿美元，自由现金流为4亿美元，高于之前指引的3亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者又爱又恨Palantir(PLTR)，它过去被昵称为黑匣子公司，而另一些投资者则绝对喜欢它，因为他们相信PLTR的软件是未来。在我之前关于PLTR的文章中，我表示，根据PLTR当前的收入趋势，他们计划在第三季度实现3.9941亿美元的收入，在第四季度实现4.2322亿美元的收入。市场普遍认为第三季度的收入为3.8656亿美元，PLTR在2021年第四季度实现了3.921亿美元，预测为4.18亿美元。当进行盈利看涨期权时，盘前的反应只不过是PLTR急剧下跌的红海，每次试图填补缺口时，螺旋式下降的下一阶段就开始了。这个消息甚至还没有被消化，但人们决定要么获利了结，要么退出头寸，要么对PLTR失去信心。</blockquote></p><p> What wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>财报中有什么不让人喜欢的地方导致了一直徘徊在-9.03%区间的抛售？PLTR收入同比增长36%，第三季度增加了34个新客户，并完成了54笔价值100万美元或以上的交易。PLTR的剩余交易价值同比增加了50%，达到36亿美元，并提供了1.01亿美元的运营现金（利润率26%）和1.99亿美元的自由现金流（利润率30%）。PLTR还提高了2021年的指导，因为他们现在预计收入同比增长40%，而之前的预测为30%，并将自由现金流预测从3亿美元提高到4亿美元。除了这些数字之外，PLTR还宣布了新的产品平台和用例，这些平台和用例在未来推动收入和自由现金流方面具有巨大潜力。我相信这次抛售将是短暂的，我将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe1dd0e9b2c6a24ce3cb94bcfda56c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir在商业和政府方面的收入持续扩大</b></blockquote></p><p> Quarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.</p><p><blockquote>自PLTR上市以来，他们的商业业务逐季扩张。上市五个季度后，PLTR的季度商业收入增长了6200万美元，增幅为55.36%。2021年第三季度，PLTR的商业运营收入为1.74亿美元，占其3.921亿美元季度收入的44.38%。过去两年，PLTR第三季度收入增长了85.11%，2020年第三季度同比增长35.11%，2021年第三季度同比增长37.01%。PLTR的商业剩余交易价值同比增长101%，从2020年第三季度的11亿美元增至2021年第三季度的22亿美元。商业客户邀请PLTR展示他们的软件解决方案，PLTR正在赢得他们的业务。2021年第三季度，PLTR净新增34家新客户，商业客户群环比增加20%，达到203家。过去一年，PLTR的商业客户群扩大了46.04%，客户数量从139个增加到203个，增加了64个。任何仍然将PLTR归类为黑匣子的人都是不准确的，因为商业市场正在了解PLTR的软件平台并实施其解决方案以改善其运营。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4084630f4e4be30a41c925c5a3fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年第一季度以来，PLTR的季度收入增加了1.631亿美元（71.23%），平均季度环比增长率为9.43%。2021年第三季度，这一趋势保持不变，收入环比增长1610万美元，即4.28%。虽然与2021年第二季度的10.26%相比，季度收入增长环比略有放缓，但PLTR预计2021年第四季度收入将为4.18亿美元。PLTR预计将再创公司纪录，并在年底实现2590万美元（6.61%）的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)</p><p><blockquote>同样的增长故事也适用于他们过去12个月(TTM)的总收入。在过去六个季度中，PLTR的TTM收入从8.106亿美元增加到14.3亿美元，增加了6.206亿美元（76.55%）。平均而言，PLTR的TTM收入环比增长1.0342亿美元（9.94%）。在Q1 2020-2020年第三季度，他们的平均环比收入增长为9403万美元，这一数字大幅增长，因为过去三个季度环比增长了至少1.05亿美元。2021年第三季度，PLTR的TTM收入增加至14.3亿美元，环比收入增长1.068亿美元（8.06%）。就像季度指标一样，PLTR的TTM预计将环比增长9590万美元，达到15.27亿美元，而市场普遍预期为15.1亿美元。这将使PLTR的年收入同比增长远高于30%的预测，因为到2021年，他们的收入将增加4.343亿美元(39.75%)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0ec6211d7ecb04785f406c7661c9124\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我很震惊PLTR仍然处于亏损状态。PLTR是一家高增长公司，目前自由现金流为正，并正在扩大其指标。2020年前9个月，PLTR产生了-2.85亿美元的自由现金流，截至2021年前9个月末，PLTR实现了6.05亿美元的波动，年初至今已产生了3.2亿美元的自由现金流。PLTR此前将2021年自由现金流指引提高至300美元，而他们刚刚再次将其提高至4亿美元以上。在三个月的时间里，PLTR将其自由现金流预测额外增加了33.33%。第三季度，PLTR的自由现金流利润率为30%，预计2021年自由现金流将超过4亿美元。至少，这意味着他们将在2021年额外增加8000万美元的自由现金流。如果PLTR实现15.27亿美元的收入和4亿美元的自由现金流，其2021年的自由现金流利润率将为26.2%。PLTR仍预计到2025年年收入将同比增长30%，根据2021年1.527美元的预测，2025年收入将达到43.6亿美元。按照PLTR目前的自由现金流利润率，他们将在2025年产生11.4亿美元的自由现金流。考虑到PLTR目前的趋势，如果他们超出预测并同比增长35%，那么他们2025年的收入将达到50.7亿美元。按照目前的自由现金流利润率，到2025年，他们将产生13.3亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cff0d5c5ef70ea6926a1323c77bfe4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: PLTR)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：PLTR）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在全速点火。第三季度收入同比增长36%，第二次将自由现金流指引从3亿美元上调至4亿美元以上，并将年收入增长指引从30%上调至约40%。PLTR仍维持每年30%的未来收入前景，并创造了一些令人印象深刻的利润。第三季度PLTR的商业收入同比增长37%，政府收入同比增长34%。PLTR在第三季度完成了至少54笔价值至少100万美元的交易，其中33笔收入至少500万美元，18笔收入至少1000万美元。PLTR的增长指标令人印象深刻，我预计它们未来将低于承诺并超额交付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir正在进入两个巨大的新领域：碳排放和加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我曾写过有关政府、亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和国际商业机器公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）未来机遇的文章。在今天的收益看涨期权上，PLTR介绍了有关他们将为碳排放和加密货币提供的两种新产品的重要信息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM)&nbsp;are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to&nbsp;scrub emissions out of the air&nbsp;and carbonate fuel cells&nbsp;to capture industrial emissions&nbsp;from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国在气候问题上发生了根本性转变，拜登总统重新加入了《巴黎协定》，重新参与应对气候变化。该计划的一部分是到2050年实现整个经济的净零排放。最近，拜登总统在苏格兰格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候峰会上承诺与欧盟和其他数十个国家合作，到2030年将全球甲烷总排放量减少30%。无论你对气候的立场是什么，有许多人认为我们需要降低排放，许多国家正在朝着一个目标努力。为了遵守规定，埃克森美孚（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）等公司正在与外部组织对几项有前途的创新进行长期研究，包括用于清除空气中排放物的直接空气捕获技术和用于捕获烟道中工业排放的碳酸盐燃料电池发电厂或制造设施的气流。碳排放管理已经是一项蓬勃发展的业务，PLTR正在Foundry上创建一个模块，以提供一个单一的窗格来查看收入、利润、生产和所有排放，以便公司可以更有效地管理结果。就我个人而言，我相信这对于推动PLTR未来的收入具有巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2386d938e7f452a340dbb130de508f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN)&nbsp;is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR讨论的第二个巨大前景是加密货币代工。看起来PLTR正在利用他们的反洗钱和了解你的客户的专业知识。多年来，PLTR一直与多个政府合作，寻找全球最大银行的合规问题，并帮助这些银行应对和加强其合规计划。这是完全有道理的，当您回到合同时，PLTR已获得IRS和SEC的授予（在之前的文章中讨论过）。仅在第三季度，PLTR就与IRS签署了6份合同。如果让我猜的话，PLTR的软件将被IRS和SEC在政府方面使用，并被银行和加密货币交易所在商业方面采用。目前，在过去24小时内，Coinbase（纳斯达克：COIN）显示比特币（BTC-USD）的交易量为438亿美元。我认为PLTR最终将从其加密货币代工厂的政府和商业合同中获得未来的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c762e27799c80dbaa9914bb98a6a10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"234\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据库）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005d57c6c5c926b35eac100fa35c7415\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR已经成为市场误解其收益并在消息好的时候抛售消息的另一个统计数据。还有人想让PLTR做什么？这是一个出色的季度，第三季度收入同比增长36%，自由现金流为1.19亿美元，利润率为30%，PLTR完成了54笔交易，每笔价值超过100万美元。PLTR超出收入预期，第二次上调全年收入指引，上调自由现金流指引。这是一个基于所有积极因素的卖出消息，这创造了买入机会。我将做多PLTR，如果抛售继续，我计划增加我的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seeking Alpha Marketplace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寻求阿尔法市场</b></blockquote></p><p> I will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&amp;A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.</p><p><blockquote>我将在Seeking Alpha市场上推出一项名为Barbell Capital的订阅服务。Barbell Capital将为其成员提供独家研究、模型投资组合、投资工具、问答环节、观察列表和其他功能。我还将拥有一个实时投资组合，致力于通过交易、出售看跌期权和出售备兑评级来产生资本。利润将分配给未来的资本增值投资和投资股息投资，在我们睡觉时产生收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度表现良好，自由现金流增加，提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度表现良好，自由现金流增加，提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 10:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.</li>  <li>Palantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.</li>  <li>Palantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.</li>  <li>Palantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd5d395baf412802ef5e554f0efa64b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的收入环比增长36%，同时产生1.19亿美元的自由现金流，利润率为30%。</li><li>Palantir第三季度商业收入同比增长37%，政府收入同比增长34%，显示出强劲的前瞻性增长趋势。</li><li>Palantir在2021年第三季度完成了54笔交易，合同价值至少为100万美元，其中33笔价值超过500万美元，18笔价值超过1000万美元。</li><li>Palantir再次上调指引，预计收入同比增长40%，达到15.27亿美元，自由现金流为4亿美元，高于之前指引的3亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者又爱又恨Palantir(PLTR)，它过去被昵称为黑匣子公司，而另一些投资者则绝对喜欢它，因为他们相信PLTR的软件是未来。在我之前关于PLTR的文章中，我表示，根据PLTR当前的收入趋势，他们计划在第三季度实现3.9941亿美元的收入，在第四季度实现4.2322亿美元的收入。市场普遍认为第三季度的收入为3.8656亿美元，PLTR在2021年第四季度实现了3.921亿美元，预测为4.18亿美元。当进行盈利看涨期权时，盘前的反应只不过是PLTR急剧下跌的红海，每次试图填补缺口时，螺旋式下降的下一阶段就开始了。这个消息甚至还没有被消化，但人们决定要么获利了结，要么退出头寸，要么对PLTR失去信心。</blockquote></p><p> What wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>财报中有什么不让人喜欢的地方导致了一直徘徊在-9.03%区间的抛售？PLTR收入同比增长36%，第三季度增加了34个新客户，并完成了54笔价值100万美元或以上的交易。PLTR的剩余交易价值同比增加了50%，达到36亿美元，并提供了1.01亿美元的运营现金（利润率26%）和1.99亿美元的自由现金流（利润率30%）。PLTR还提高了2021年的指导，因为他们现在预计收入同比增长40%，而之前的预测为30%，并将自由现金流预测从3亿美元提高到4亿美元。除了这些数字之外，PLTR还宣布了新的产品平台和用例，这些平台和用例在未来推动收入和自由现金流方面具有巨大潜力。我相信这次抛售将是短暂的，我将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe1dd0e9b2c6a24ce3cb94bcfda56c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir在商业和政府方面的收入持续扩大</b></blockquote></p><p> Quarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.</p><p><blockquote>自PLTR上市以来，他们的商业业务逐季扩张。上市五个季度后，PLTR的季度商业收入增长了6200万美元，增幅为55.36%。2021年第三季度，PLTR的商业运营收入为1.74亿美元，占其3.921亿美元季度收入的44.38%。过去两年，PLTR第三季度收入增长了85.11%，2020年第三季度同比增长35.11%，2021年第三季度同比增长37.01%。PLTR的商业剩余交易价值同比增长101%，从2020年第三季度的11亿美元增至2021年第三季度的22亿美元。商业客户邀请PLTR展示他们的软件解决方案，PLTR正在赢得他们的业务。2021年第三季度，PLTR净新增34家新客户，商业客户群环比增加20%，达到203家。过去一年，PLTR的商业客户群扩大了46.04%，客户数量从139个增加到203个，增加了64个。任何仍然将PLTR归类为黑匣子的人都是不准确的，因为商业市场正在了解PLTR的软件平台并实施其解决方案以改善其运营。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4084630f4e4be30a41c925c5a3fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年第一季度以来，PLTR的季度收入增加了1.631亿美元（71.23%），平均季度环比增长率为9.43%。2021年第三季度，这一趋势保持不变，收入环比增长1610万美元，即4.28%。虽然与2021年第二季度的10.26%相比，季度收入增长环比略有放缓，但PLTR预计2021年第四季度收入将为4.18亿美元。PLTR预计将再创公司纪录，并在年底实现2590万美元（6.61%）的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)</p><p><blockquote>同样的增长故事也适用于他们过去12个月(TTM)的总收入。在过去六个季度中，PLTR的TTM收入从8.106亿美元增加到14.3亿美元，增加了6.206亿美元（76.55%）。平均而言，PLTR的TTM收入环比增长1.0342亿美元（9.94%）。在Q1 2020-2020年第三季度，他们的平均环比收入增长为9403万美元，这一数字大幅增长，因为过去三个季度环比增长了至少1.05亿美元。2021年第三季度，PLTR的TTM收入增加至14.3亿美元，环比收入增长1.068亿美元（8.06%）。就像季度指标一样，PLTR的TTM预计将环比增长9590万美元，达到15.27亿美元，而市场普遍预期为15.1亿美元。这将使PLTR的年收入同比增长远高于30%的预测，因为到2021年，他们的收入将增加4.343亿美元(39.75%)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0ec6211d7ecb04785f406c7661c9124\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我很震惊PLTR仍然处于亏损状态。PLTR是一家高增长公司，目前自由现金流为正，并正在扩大其指标。2020年前9个月，PLTR产生了-2.85亿美元的自由现金流，截至2021年前9个月末，PLTR实现了6.05亿美元的波动，年初至今已产生了3.2亿美元的自由现金流。PLTR此前将2021年自由现金流指引提高至300美元，而他们刚刚再次将其提高至4亿美元以上。在三个月的时间里，PLTR将其自由现金流预测额外增加了33.33%。第三季度，PLTR的自由现金流利润率为30%，预计2021年自由现金流将超过4亿美元。至少，这意味着他们将在2021年额外增加8000万美元的自由现金流。如果PLTR实现15.27亿美元的收入和4亿美元的自由现金流，其2021年的自由现金流利润率将为26.2%。PLTR仍预计到2025年年收入将同比增长30%，根据2021年1.527美元的预测，2025年收入将达到43.6亿美元。按照PLTR目前的自由现金流利润率，他们将在2025年产生11.4亿美元的自由现金流。考虑到PLTR目前的趋势，如果他们超出预测并同比增长35%，那么他们2025年的收入将达到50.7亿美元。按照目前的自由现金流利润率，到2025年，他们将产生13.3亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cff0d5c5ef70ea6926a1323c77bfe4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: PLTR)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：PLTR）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在全速点火。第三季度收入同比增长36%，第二次将自由现金流指引从3亿美元上调至4亿美元以上，并将年收入增长指引从30%上调至约40%。PLTR仍维持每年30%的未来收入前景，并创造了一些令人印象深刻的利润。第三季度PLTR的商业收入同比增长37%，政府收入同比增长34%。PLTR在第三季度完成了至少54笔价值至少100万美元的交易，其中33笔收入至少500万美元，18笔收入至少1000万美元。PLTR的增长指标令人印象深刻，我预计它们未来将低于承诺并超额交付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir正在进入两个巨大的新领域：碳排放和加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我曾写过有关政府、亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和国际商业机器公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）未来机遇的文章。在今天的收益看涨期权上，PLTR介绍了有关他们将为碳排放和加密货币提供的两种新产品的重要信息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM)&nbsp;are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to&nbsp;scrub emissions out of the air&nbsp;and carbonate fuel cells&nbsp;to capture industrial emissions&nbsp;from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国在气候问题上发生了根本性转变，拜登总统重新加入了《巴黎协定》，重新参与应对气候变化。该计划的一部分是到2050年实现整个经济的净零排放。最近，拜登总统在苏格兰格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候峰会上承诺与欧盟和其他数十个国家合作，到2030年将全球甲烷总排放量减少30%。无论你对气候的立场是什么，有许多人认为我们需要降低排放，许多国家正在朝着一个目标努力。为了遵守规定，埃克森美孚（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）等公司正在与外部组织对几项有前途的创新进行长期研究，包括用于清除空气中排放物的直接空气捕获技术和用于捕获烟道中工业排放的碳酸盐燃料电池发电厂或制造设施的气流。碳排放管理已经是一项蓬勃发展的业务，PLTR正在Foundry上创建一个模块，以提供一个单一的窗格来查看收入、利润、生产和所有排放，以便公司可以更有效地管理结果。就我个人而言，我相信这对于推动PLTR未来的收入具有巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2386d938e7f452a340dbb130de508f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN)&nbsp;is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR讨论的第二个巨大前景是加密货币代工。看起来PLTR正在利用他们的反洗钱和了解你的客户的专业知识。多年来，PLTR一直与多个政府合作，寻找全球最大银行的合规问题，并帮助这些银行应对和加强其合规计划。这是完全有道理的，当您回到合同时，PLTR已获得IRS和SEC的授予（在之前的文章中讨论过）。仅在第三季度，PLTR就与IRS签署了6份合同。如果让我猜的话，PLTR的软件将被IRS和SEC在政府方面使用，并被银行和加密货币交易所在商业方面采用。目前，在过去24小时内，Coinbase（纳斯达克：COIN）显示比特币（BTC-USD）的交易量为438亿美元。我认为PLTR最终将从其加密货币代工厂的政府和商业合同中获得未来的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c762e27799c80dbaa9914bb98a6a10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"234\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据库）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005d57c6c5c926b35eac100fa35c7415\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR已经成为市场误解其收益并在消息好的时候抛售消息的另一个统计数据。还有人想让PLTR做什么？这是一个出色的季度，第三季度收入同比增长36%，自由现金流为1.19亿美元，利润率为30%，PLTR完成了54笔交易，每笔价值超过100万美元。PLTR超出收入预期，第二次上调全年收入指引，上调自由现金流指引。这是一个基于所有积极因素的卖出消息，这创造了买入机会。我将做多PLTR，如果抛售继续，我计划增加我的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seeking Alpha Marketplace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寻求阿尔法市场</b></blockquote></p><p> I will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&amp;A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.</p><p><blockquote>我将在Seeking Alpha市场上推出一项名为Barbell Capital的订阅服务。Barbell Capital将为其成员提供独家研究、模型投资组合、投资工具、问答环节、观察列表和其他功能。我还将拥有一个实时投资组合，致力于通过交易、出售看跌期权和出售备兑评级来产生资本。利润将分配给未来的资本增值投资和投资股息投资，在我们睡觉时产生收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468059-palantir-q3-beat-creating-an-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468059-palantir-q3-beat-creating-an-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129543601","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.\nPalantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.\nPalantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.\nPalantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.\n\nAndreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment\nSome investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.\nWhat wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nPalantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side\nQuarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nSince Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.\nThe same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nI am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.\n(Source: PLTR)\nPLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.\nPalantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto\nIn the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.\nThere has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM) are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to scrub emissions out of the air and carbonate fuel cells to capture industrial emissions from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.\n(Source: Palantir)\nThe second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)\n(Source: Palantir)\nConclusion\nPLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.\nSeeking Alpha Marketplace\nI will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879105341,"gmtCreate":1636686663788,"gmtModify":1636686683983,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879105341","repostId":"1174358718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":873002602,"gmtCreate":1636785467012,"gmtModify":1636785467107,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573518300822142","idStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873002602","repostId":"1129543601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129543601","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636770982,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129543601?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度表现良好，自由现金流增加，提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129543601","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.</li>  <li>Palantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.</li>  <li>Palantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.</li>  <li>Palantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd5d395baf412802ef5e554f0efa64b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的收入环比增长36%，同时产生1.19亿美元的自由现金流，利润率为30%。</li><li>Palantir第三季度商业收入同比增长37%，政府收入同比增长34%，显示出强劲的前瞻性增长趋势。</li><li>Palantir在2021年第三季度完成了54笔交易，合同价值至少为100万美元，其中33笔价值超过500万美元，18笔价值超过1000万美元。</li><li>Palantir再次上调指引，预计收入同比增长40%，达到15.27亿美元，自由现金流为4亿美元，高于之前指引的3亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者又爱又恨Palantir(PLTR)，它过去被昵称为黑匣子公司，而另一些投资者则绝对喜欢它，因为他们相信PLTR的软件是未来。在我之前关于PLTR的文章中，我表示，根据PLTR当前的收入趋势，他们计划在第三季度实现3.9941亿美元的收入，在第四季度实现4.2322亿美元的收入。市场普遍认为第三季度的收入为3.8656亿美元，PLTR在2021年第四季度实现了3.921亿美元，预测为4.18亿美元。当进行盈利看涨期权时，盘前的反应只不过是PLTR急剧下跌的红海，每次试图填补缺口时，螺旋式下降的下一阶段就开始了。这个消息甚至还没有被消化，但人们决定要么获利了结，要么退出头寸，要么对PLTR失去信心。</blockquote></p><p> What wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>财报中有什么不让人喜欢的地方导致了一直徘徊在-9.03%区间的抛售？PLTR收入同比增长36%，第三季度增加了34个新客户，并完成了54笔价值100万美元或以上的交易。PLTR的剩余交易价值同比增加了50%，达到36亿美元，并提供了1.01亿美元的运营现金（利润率26%）和1.99亿美元的自由现金流（利润率30%）。PLTR还提高了2021年的指导，因为他们现在预计收入同比增长40%，而之前的预测为30%，并将自由现金流预测从3亿美元提高到4亿美元。除了这些数字之外，PLTR还宣布了新的产品平台和用例，这些平台和用例在未来推动收入和自由现金流方面具有巨大潜力。我相信这次抛售将是短暂的，我将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe1dd0e9b2c6a24ce3cb94bcfda56c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir在商业和政府方面的收入持续扩大</b></blockquote></p><p> Quarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.</p><p><blockquote>自PLTR上市以来，他们的商业业务逐季扩张。上市五个季度后，PLTR的季度商业收入增长了6200万美元，增幅为55.36%。2021年第三季度，PLTR的商业运营收入为1.74亿美元，占其3.921亿美元季度收入的44.38%。过去两年，PLTR第三季度收入增长了85.11%，2020年第三季度同比增长35.11%，2021年第三季度同比增长37.01%。PLTR的商业剩余交易价值同比增长101%，从2020年第三季度的11亿美元增至2021年第三季度的22亿美元。商业客户邀请PLTR展示他们的软件解决方案，PLTR正在赢得他们的业务。2021年第三季度，PLTR净新增34家新客户，商业客户群环比增加20%，达到203家。过去一年，PLTR的商业客户群扩大了46.04%，客户数量从139个增加到203个，增加了64个。任何仍然将PLTR归类为黑匣子的人都是不准确的，因为商业市场正在了解PLTR的软件平台并实施其解决方案以改善其运营。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4084630f4e4be30a41c925c5a3fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年第一季度以来，PLTR的季度收入增加了1.631亿美元（71.23%），平均季度环比增长率为9.43%。2021年第三季度，这一趋势保持不变，收入环比增长1610万美元，即4.28%。虽然与2021年第二季度的10.26%相比，季度收入增长环比略有放缓，但PLTR预计2021年第四季度收入将为4.18亿美元。PLTR预计将再创公司纪录，并在年底实现2590万美元（6.61%）的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)</p><p><blockquote>同样的增长故事也适用于他们过去12个月(TTM)的总收入。在过去六个季度中，PLTR的TTM收入从8.106亿美元增加到14.3亿美元，增加了6.206亿美元（76.55%）。平均而言，PLTR的TTM收入环比增长1.0342亿美元（9.94%）。在Q1 2020-2020年第三季度，他们的平均环比收入增长为9403万美元，这一数字大幅增长，因为过去三个季度环比增长了至少1.05亿美元。2021年第三季度，PLTR的TTM收入增加至14.3亿美元，环比收入增长1.068亿美元（8.06%）。就像季度指标一样，PLTR的TTM预计将环比增长9590万美元，达到15.27亿美元，而市场普遍预期为15.1亿美元。这将使PLTR的年收入同比增长远高于30%的预测，因为到2021年，他们的收入将增加4.343亿美元(39.75%)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0ec6211d7ecb04785f406c7661c9124\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我很震惊PLTR仍然处于亏损状态。PLTR是一家高增长公司，目前自由现金流为正，并正在扩大其指标。2020年前9个月，PLTR产生了-2.85亿美元的自由现金流，截至2021年前9个月末，PLTR实现了6.05亿美元的波动，年初至今已产生了3.2亿美元的自由现金流。PLTR此前将2021年自由现金流指引提高至300美元，而他们刚刚再次将其提高至4亿美元以上。在三个月的时间里，PLTR将其自由现金流预测额外增加了33.33%。第三季度，PLTR的自由现金流利润率为30%，预计2021年自由现金流将超过4亿美元。至少，这意味着他们将在2021年额外增加8000万美元的自由现金流。如果PLTR实现15.27亿美元的收入和4亿美元的自由现金流，其2021年的自由现金流利润率将为26.2%。PLTR仍预计到2025年年收入将同比增长30%，根据2021年1.527美元的预测，2025年收入将达到43.6亿美元。按照PLTR目前的自由现金流利润率，他们将在2025年产生11.4亿美元的自由现金流。考虑到PLTR目前的趋势，如果他们超出预测并同比增长35%，那么他们2025年的收入将达到50.7亿美元。按照目前的自由现金流利润率，到2025年，他们将产生13.3亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cff0d5c5ef70ea6926a1323c77bfe4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: PLTR)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：PLTR）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在全速点火。第三季度收入同比增长36%，第二次将自由现金流指引从3亿美元上调至4亿美元以上，并将年收入增长指引从30%上调至约40%。PLTR仍维持每年30%的未来收入前景，并创造了一些令人印象深刻的利润。第三季度PLTR的商业收入同比增长37%，政府收入同比增长34%。PLTR在第三季度完成了至少54笔价值至少100万美元的交易，其中33笔收入至少500万美元，18笔收入至少1000万美元。PLTR的增长指标令人印象深刻，我预计它们未来将低于承诺并超额交付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir正在进入两个巨大的新领域：碳排放和加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我曾写过有关政府、亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和国际商业机器公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）未来机遇的文章。在今天的收益看涨期权上，PLTR介绍了有关他们将为碳排放和加密货币提供的两种新产品的重要信息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM)&nbsp;are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to&nbsp;scrub emissions out of the air&nbsp;and carbonate fuel cells&nbsp;to capture industrial emissions&nbsp;from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国在气候问题上发生了根本性转变，拜登总统重新加入了《巴黎协定》，重新参与应对气候变化。该计划的一部分是到2050年实现整个经济的净零排放。最近，拜登总统在苏格兰格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候峰会上承诺与欧盟和其他数十个国家合作，到2030年将全球甲烷总排放量减少30%。无论你对气候的立场是什么，有许多人认为我们需要降低排放，许多国家正在朝着一个目标努力。为了遵守规定，埃克森美孚（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）等公司正在与外部组织对几项有前途的创新进行长期研究，包括用于清除空气中排放物的直接空气捕获技术和用于捕获烟道中工业排放的碳酸盐燃料电池发电厂或制造设施的气流。碳排放管理已经是一项蓬勃发展的业务，PLTR正在Foundry上创建一个模块，以提供一个单一的窗格来查看收入、利润、生产和所有排放，以便公司可以更有效地管理结果。就我个人而言，我相信这对于推动PLTR未来的收入具有巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2386d938e7f452a340dbb130de508f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN)&nbsp;is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR讨论的第二个巨大前景是加密货币代工。看起来PLTR正在利用他们的反洗钱和了解你的客户的专业知识。多年来，PLTR一直与多个政府合作，寻找全球最大银行的合规问题，并帮助这些银行应对和加强其合规计划。这是完全有道理的，当您回到合同时，PLTR已获得IRS和SEC的授予（在之前的文章中讨论过）。仅在第三季度，PLTR就与IRS签署了6份合同。如果让我猜的话，PLTR的软件将被IRS和SEC在政府方面使用，并被银行和加密货币交易所在商业方面采用。目前，在过去24小时内，Coinbase（纳斯达克：COIN）显示比特币（BTC-USD）的交易量为438亿美元。我认为PLTR最终将从其加密货币代工厂的政府和商业合同中获得未来的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c762e27799c80dbaa9914bb98a6a10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"234\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据库）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005d57c6c5c926b35eac100fa35c7415\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR已经成为市场误解其收益并在消息好的时候抛售消息的另一个统计数据。还有人想让PLTR做什么？这是一个出色的季度，第三季度收入同比增长36%，自由现金流为1.19亿美元，利润率为30%，PLTR完成了54笔交易，每笔价值超过100万美元。PLTR超出收入预期，第二次上调全年收入指引，上调自由现金流指引。这是一个基于所有积极因素的卖出消息，这创造了买入机会。我将做多PLTR，如果抛售继续，我计划增加我的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seeking Alpha Marketplace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寻求阿尔法市场</b></blockquote></p><p> I will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&amp;A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.</p><p><blockquote>我将在Seeking Alpha市场上推出一项名为Barbell Capital的订阅服务。Barbell Capital将为其成员提供独家研究、模型投资组合、投资工具、问答环节、观察列表和其他功能。我还将拥有一个实时投资组合，致力于通过交易、出售看跌期权和出售备兑评级来产生资本。利润将分配给未来的资本增值投资和投资股息投资，在我们睡觉时产生收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度表现良好，自由现金流增加，提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度表现良好，自由现金流增加，提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 10:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.</li>  <li>Palantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.</li>  <li>Palantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.</li>  <li>Palantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd5d395baf412802ef5e554f0efa64b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的收入环比增长36%，同时产生1.19亿美元的自由现金流，利润率为30%。</li><li>Palantir第三季度商业收入同比增长37%，政府收入同比增长34%，显示出强劲的前瞻性增长趋势。</li><li>Palantir在2021年第三季度完成了54笔交易，合同价值至少为100万美元，其中33笔价值超过500万美元，18笔价值超过1000万美元。</li><li>Palantir再次上调指引，预计收入同比增长40%，达到15.27亿美元，自由现金流为4亿美元，高于之前指引的3亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者又爱又恨Palantir(PLTR)，它过去被昵称为黑匣子公司，而另一些投资者则绝对喜欢它，因为他们相信PLTR的软件是未来。在我之前关于PLTR的文章中，我表示，根据PLTR当前的收入趋势，他们计划在第三季度实现3.9941亿美元的收入，在第四季度实现4.2322亿美元的收入。市场普遍认为第三季度的收入为3.8656亿美元，PLTR在2021年第四季度实现了3.921亿美元，预测为4.18亿美元。当进行盈利看涨期权时，盘前的反应只不过是PLTR急剧下跌的红海，每次试图填补缺口时，螺旋式下降的下一阶段就开始了。这个消息甚至还没有被消化，但人们决定要么获利了结，要么退出头寸，要么对PLTR失去信心。</blockquote></p><p> What wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>财报中有什么不让人喜欢的地方导致了一直徘徊在-9.03%区间的抛售？PLTR收入同比增长36%，第三季度增加了34个新客户，并完成了54笔价值100万美元或以上的交易。PLTR的剩余交易价值同比增加了50%，达到36亿美元，并提供了1.01亿美元的运营现金（利润率26%）和1.99亿美元的自由现金流（利润率30%）。PLTR还提高了2021年的指导，因为他们现在预计收入同比增长40%，而之前的预测为30%，并将自由现金流预测从3亿美元提高到4亿美元。除了这些数字之外，PLTR还宣布了新的产品平台和用例，这些平台和用例在未来推动收入和自由现金流方面具有巨大潜力。我相信这次抛售将是短暂的，我将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe1dd0e9b2c6a24ce3cb94bcfda56c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir在商业和政府方面的收入持续扩大</b></blockquote></p><p> Quarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.</p><p><blockquote>自PLTR上市以来，他们的商业业务逐季扩张。上市五个季度后，PLTR的季度商业收入增长了6200万美元，增幅为55.36%。2021年第三季度，PLTR的商业运营收入为1.74亿美元，占其3.921亿美元季度收入的44.38%。过去两年，PLTR第三季度收入增长了85.11%，2020年第三季度同比增长35.11%，2021年第三季度同比增长37.01%。PLTR的商业剩余交易价值同比增长101%，从2020年第三季度的11亿美元增至2021年第三季度的22亿美元。商业客户邀请PLTR展示他们的软件解决方案，PLTR正在赢得他们的业务。2021年第三季度，PLTR净新增34家新客户，商业客户群环比增加20%，达到203家。过去一年，PLTR的商业客户群扩大了46.04%，客户数量从139个增加到203个，增加了64个。任何仍然将PLTR归类为黑匣子的人都是不准确的，因为商业市场正在了解PLTR的软件平台并实施其解决方案以改善其运营。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4084630f4e4be30a41c925c5a3fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年第一季度以来，PLTR的季度收入增加了1.631亿美元（71.23%），平均季度环比增长率为9.43%。2021年第三季度，这一趋势保持不变，收入环比增长1610万美元，即4.28%。虽然与2021年第二季度的10.26%相比，季度收入增长环比略有放缓，但PLTR预计2021年第四季度收入将为4.18亿美元。PLTR预计将再创公司纪录，并在年底实现2590万美元（6.61%）的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)</p><p><blockquote>同样的增长故事也适用于他们过去12个月(TTM)的总收入。在过去六个季度中，PLTR的TTM收入从8.106亿美元增加到14.3亿美元，增加了6.206亿美元（76.55%）。平均而言，PLTR的TTM收入环比增长1.0342亿美元（9.94%）。在Q1 2020-2020年第三季度，他们的平均环比收入增长为9403万美元，这一数字大幅增长，因为过去三个季度环比增长了至少1.05亿美元。2021年第三季度，PLTR的TTM收入增加至14.3亿美元，环比收入增长1.068亿美元（8.06%）。就像季度指标一样，PLTR的TTM预计将环比增长9590万美元，达到15.27亿美元，而市场普遍预期为15.1亿美元。这将使PLTR的年收入同比增长远高于30%的预测，因为到2021年，他们的收入将增加4.343亿美元(39.75%)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0ec6211d7ecb04785f406c7661c9124\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我很震惊PLTR仍然处于亏损状态。PLTR是一家高增长公司，目前自由现金流为正，并正在扩大其指标。2020年前9个月，PLTR产生了-2.85亿美元的自由现金流，截至2021年前9个月末，PLTR实现了6.05亿美元的波动，年初至今已产生了3.2亿美元的自由现金流。PLTR此前将2021年自由现金流指引提高至300美元，而他们刚刚再次将其提高至4亿美元以上。在三个月的时间里，PLTR将其自由现金流预测额外增加了33.33%。第三季度，PLTR的自由现金流利润率为30%，预计2021年自由现金流将超过4亿美元。至少，这意味着他们将在2021年额外增加8000万美元的自由现金流。如果PLTR实现15.27亿美元的收入和4亿美元的自由现金流，其2021年的自由现金流利润率将为26.2%。PLTR仍预计到2025年年收入将同比增长30%，根据2021年1.527美元的预测，2025年收入将达到43.6亿美元。按照PLTR目前的自由现金流利润率，他们将在2025年产生11.4亿美元的自由现金流。考虑到PLTR目前的趋势，如果他们超出预测并同比增长35%，那么他们2025年的收入将达到50.7亿美元。按照目前的自由现金流利润率，到2025年，他们将产生13.3亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cff0d5c5ef70ea6926a1323c77bfe4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: PLTR)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：PLTR）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在全速点火。第三季度收入同比增长36%，第二次将自由现金流指引从3亿美元上调至4亿美元以上，并将年收入增长指引从30%上调至约40%。PLTR仍维持每年30%的未来收入前景，并创造了一些令人印象深刻的利润。第三季度PLTR的商业收入同比增长37%，政府收入同比增长34%。PLTR在第三季度完成了至少54笔价值至少100万美元的交易，其中33笔收入至少500万美元，18笔收入至少1000万美元。PLTR的增长指标令人印象深刻，我预计它们未来将低于承诺并超额交付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir正在进入两个巨大的新领域：碳排放和加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我曾写过有关政府、亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和国际商业机器公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）未来机遇的文章。在今天的收益看涨期权上，PLTR介绍了有关他们将为碳排放和加密货币提供的两种新产品的重要信息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM)&nbsp;are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to&nbsp;scrub emissions out of the air&nbsp;and carbonate fuel cells&nbsp;to capture industrial emissions&nbsp;from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国在气候问题上发生了根本性转变，拜登总统重新加入了《巴黎协定》，重新参与应对气候变化。该计划的一部分是到2050年实现整个经济的净零排放。最近，拜登总统在苏格兰格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候峰会上承诺与欧盟和其他数十个国家合作，到2030年将全球甲烷总排放量减少30%。无论你对气候的立场是什么，有许多人认为我们需要降低排放，许多国家正在朝着一个目标努力。为了遵守规定，埃克森美孚（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）等公司正在与外部组织对几项有前途的创新进行长期研究，包括用于清除空气中排放物的直接空气捕获技术和用于捕获烟道中工业排放的碳酸盐燃料电池发电厂或制造设施的气流。碳排放管理已经是一项蓬勃发展的业务，PLTR正在Foundry上创建一个模块，以提供一个单一的窗格来查看收入、利润、生产和所有排放，以便公司可以更有效地管理结果。就我个人而言，我相信这对于推动PLTR未来的收入具有巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2386d938e7f452a340dbb130de508f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN)&nbsp;is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR讨论的第二个巨大前景是加密货币代工。看起来PLTR正在利用他们的反洗钱和了解你的客户的专业知识。多年来，PLTR一直与多个政府合作，寻找全球最大银行的合规问题，并帮助这些银行应对和加强其合规计划。这是完全有道理的，当您回到合同时，PLTR已获得IRS和SEC的授予（在之前的文章中讨论过）。仅在第三季度，PLTR就与IRS签署了6份合同。如果让我猜的话，PLTR的软件将被IRS和SEC在政府方面使用，并被银行和加密货币交易所在商业方面采用。目前，在过去24小时内，Coinbase（纳斯达克：COIN）显示比特币（BTC-USD）的交易量为438亿美元。我认为PLTR最终将从其加密货币代工厂的政府和商业合同中获得未来的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c762e27799c80dbaa9914bb98a6a10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"234\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据库）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005d57c6c5c926b35eac100fa35c7415\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR已经成为市场误解其收益并在消息好的时候抛售消息的另一个统计数据。还有人想让PLTR做什么？这是一个出色的季度，第三季度收入同比增长36%，自由现金流为1.19亿美元，利润率为30%，PLTR完成了54笔交易，每笔价值超过100万美元。PLTR超出收入预期，第二次上调全年收入指引，上调自由现金流指引。这是一个基于所有积极因素的卖出消息，这创造了买入机会。我将做多PLTR，如果抛售继续，我计划增加我的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seeking Alpha Marketplace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寻求阿尔法市场</b></blockquote></p><p> I will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&amp;A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.</p><p><blockquote>我将在Seeking Alpha市场上推出一项名为Barbell Capital的订阅服务。Barbell Capital将为其成员提供独家研究、模型投资组合、投资工具、问答环节、观察列表和其他功能。我还将拥有一个实时投资组合，致力于通过交易、出售看跌期权和出售备兑评级来产生资本。利润将分配给未来的资本增值投资和投资股息投资，在我们睡觉时产生收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468059-palantir-q3-beat-creating-an-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468059-palantir-q3-beat-creating-an-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129543601","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.\nPalantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.\nPalantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.\nPalantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.\n\nAndreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment\nSome investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.\nWhat wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nPalantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side\nQuarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nSince Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.\nThe same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nI am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.\n(Source: PLTR)\nPLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.\nPalantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto\nIn the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.\nThere has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM) are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to scrub emissions out of the air and carbonate fuel cells to capture industrial emissions from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.\n(Source: Palantir)\nThe second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)\n(Source: Palantir)\nConclusion\nPLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.\nSeeking Alpha Marketplace\nI will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879105341,"gmtCreate":1636686663788,"gmtModify":1636686683983,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573518300822142","idStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879105341","repostId":"1174358718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870442744,"gmtCreate":1636644083706,"gmtModify":1636644087835,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573518300822142","idStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF(META)$</a>virtual profit?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF(META)$</a>virtual profit?","text":"$Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF(META)$virtual profit?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f932159874b2e01a32aa660443ff29b3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870442744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696367312,"gmtCreate":1640620260240,"gmtModify":1640620260395,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573518300822142","idStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"=)","listText":"=)","text":"=)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696367312","repostId":"1191134006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606032990,"gmtCreate":1638800169954,"gmtModify":1638800170119,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573518300822142","idStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606032990","repostId":"1107494736","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107494736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638799191,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107494736?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 21:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc表示，苹果股票是一个有吸引力的买入。目标价定为191美元。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107494736","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the ","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一上涨，此前KeyBanc Capital Markets分析师以这家科技巨头服务领域的增长为由，对该股前景看好。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>分析师Brandon Nispel将该股跑赢大盘评级为191美元。该目标较苹果（股票代码：AAPL）周五161.84美元的收盘价上涨18%。周一盘前交易中，该股上涨1.2%，至163.73美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的42名分析师中，32名分析师给予该股买入或跑赢大盘评级，9名分析师给予持有，1名分析师给予跑输大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> “While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔周一写道：“虽然从历史估值来看，苹果公司价格昂贵，但我们发现苹果公司相对于其他大型股具有吸引力。”</blockquote></p><p> The analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师概述了他看涨的三个主要原因。Nispel认为iPhone销量尚未见顶，5G升级周期可能会推动苹果超过目前的峰值；他认为，该公司已设法增加其产品广度，以降低iPhone销售的可靠性；他预计服务的增长速度将是用户增长速度的数倍。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师预测，到2022财年第一季度末，苹果将拥有10.9亿部活跃iPhone和18亿部活跃安装设备。这分别同比增长7%和8%。</blockquote></p><p> “This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”</p><p><blockquote>Nispel写道：“这表明用户群健康增长，相对于美国以外的主要地区，苹果iPhone市场份额较低。”“随着安装基础的增长，更大的基础可以以较低的升级率支持更多的销售。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.</p><p><blockquote>Nispel写道，随着其他国家适应5G，苹果的国际市场在未来几年可能会增长更快，从而引发一波兼容硬件的升级浪潮。他估计，5G升级率每增加1%，iPhone销量就可能增加1100万部。</blockquote></p><p> As hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>随着硬件采用率的增长，苹果的服务业务也在增长。该部门包括苹果TV+、音乐、News+、AppleCare、广告和云等服务，在2021财年增长了27%。Nispel表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会成为关键的盈利驱动力，到2024年将增长到1000亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Nispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔承认，苹果的应用商店法律诉讼令人担忧，但“可能更多的是一个转变，而不是突破的结果”。该公司不得不对其应用商店指南进行适度修改，以应对法院裁决和监管变化，包括降低一些开发者的佣金。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会做出更多让步，例如允许开发商提供第三方支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计监管需要时间来实施，并相信苹果的竞争优势不太可能受到实质性损害，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc表示，苹果股票是一个有吸引力的买入。目标价定为191美元。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc表示，苹果股票是一个有吸引力的买入。目标价定为191美元。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-06 21:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一上涨，此前KeyBanc Capital Markets分析师以这家科技巨头服务领域的增长为由，对该股前景看好。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>分析师Brandon Nispel将该股跑赢大盘评级为191美元。该目标较苹果（股票代码：AAPL）周五161.84美元的收盘价上涨18%。周一盘前交易中，该股上涨1.2%，至163.73美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的42名分析师中，32名分析师给予该股买入或跑赢大盘评级，9名分析师给予持有，1名分析师给予跑输大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> “While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔周一写道：“虽然从历史估值来看，苹果公司价格昂贵，但我们发现苹果公司相对于其他大型股具有吸引力。”</blockquote></p><p> The analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师概述了他看涨的三个主要原因。Nispel认为iPhone销量尚未见顶，5G升级周期可能会推动苹果超过目前的峰值；他认为，该公司已设法增加其产品广度，以降低iPhone销售的可靠性；他预计服务的增长速度将是用户增长速度的数倍。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师预测，到2022财年第一季度末，苹果将拥有10.9亿部活跃iPhone和18亿部活跃安装设备。这分别同比增长7%和8%。</blockquote></p><p> “This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”</p><p><blockquote>Nispel写道：“这表明用户群健康增长，相对于美国以外的主要地区，苹果iPhone市场份额较低。”“随着安装基础的增长，更大的基础可以以较低的升级率支持更多的销售。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.</p><p><blockquote>Nispel写道，随着其他国家适应5G，苹果的国际市场在未来几年可能会增长更快，从而引发一波兼容硬件的升级浪潮。他估计，5G升级率每增加1%，iPhone销量就可能增加1100万部。</blockquote></p><p> As hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>随着硬件采用率的增长，苹果的服务业务也在增长。该部门包括苹果TV+、音乐、News+、AppleCare、广告和云等服务，在2021财年增长了27%。Nispel表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会成为关键的盈利驱动力，到2024年将增长到1000亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Nispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔承认，苹果的应用商店法律诉讼令人担忧，但“可能更多的是一个转变，而不是突破的结果”。该公司不得不对其应用商店指南进行适度修改，以应对法院裁决和监管变化，包括降低一些开发者的佣金。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会做出更多让步，例如允许开发商提供第三方支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计监管需要时间来实施，并相信苹果的竞争优势不太可能受到实质性损害，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-aapl-stock-attractive-buy-51638798446?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-aapl-stock-attractive-buy-51638798446?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107494736","content_text":"Apple shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.\nAnalyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.\nOf the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.\n“While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.\nThe analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.\nThe analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.\n“This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”\nApple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.\nAs hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.\nNispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.\n“We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876894415,"gmtCreate":1637288651885,"gmtModify":1637288651885,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573518300822142","idStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Similar to GRAB?","listText":"Similar to GRAB?","text":"Similar to GRAB?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876894415","repostId":"2184189467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639714982,"gmtCreate":1643448118357,"gmtModify":1643448118499,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573518300822142","idStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639714982","repostId":"1157223555","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157223555","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643443466,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157223555?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-29 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157223555","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve wi","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比他们之前预期的更激进地加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家现在预测，美联储今年将五次将其近零基准上调25个基点，而不是四次。到今年年底，该基准利率将升至1.25%-1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p><blockquote>高盛现在在3月、5月、7月、9月和12月看到了转变。他们还预计官员们将在6月份宣布开始缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，官员们已准备好在3月份加息，并在每次会议上为遏制40年来最快的通胀敞开了大门。周五的一份政府报告显示，截至12月的一年中，就业成本指数上涨了4%，为二十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p><blockquote>美联储启动数十年来最激进的全球紧缩政策</blockquote></p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在给客户的一份报告中表示：“工资增长高于美联储通胀目标水平的证据已经加强，我们已经上调了通胀路径。”“此外，鲍威尔主席本周早些时候的言论明确表示，美联储领导层对更激进的紧缩步伐持开放态度。”</blockquote></p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，如果市场状况发生变化或经济减速比预期快得多，美联储仍可能改变策略，或者如果通胀仍然足够高，美联储收紧货币政策的幅度甚至超过预期。</blockquote></p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们一致认为美联储将采取比之前押注更多的行动，但银行本周在政策制定者的激进程度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行目前预测2022年加息七次，法国巴黎银行预测加息六次，摩根大通和德意志银行预计加息五次。</blockquote></p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>野村控股公司甚至预计央行将在3月份加息50个基点，这将是自2000年以来的最大举措。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p><p><blockquote>彭博经济研究所坚持本月早些时候做出的五次加息的预测，尽管首席经济学家Anna Wong本周表示有六次加息的风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-29 16:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比他们之前预期的更激进地加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家现在预测，美联储今年将五次将其近零基准上调25个基点，而不是四次。到今年年底，该基准利率将升至1.25%-1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p><blockquote>高盛现在在3月、5月、7月、9月和12月看到了转变。他们还预计官员们将在6月份宣布开始缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，官员们已准备好在3月份加息，并在每次会议上为遏制40年来最快的通胀敞开了大门。周五的一份政府报告显示，截至12月的一年中，就业成本指数上涨了4%，为二十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p><blockquote>美联储启动数十年来最激进的全球紧缩政策</blockquote></p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在给客户的一份报告中表示：“工资增长高于美联储通胀目标水平的证据已经加强，我们已经上调了通胀路径。”“此外，鲍威尔主席本周早些时候的言论明确表示，美联储领导层对更激进的紧缩步伐持开放态度。”</blockquote></p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，如果市场状况发生变化或经济减速比预期快得多，美联储仍可能改变策略，或者如果通胀仍然足够高，美联储收紧货币政策的幅度甚至超过预期。</blockquote></p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们一致认为美联储将采取比之前押注更多的行动，但银行本周在政策制定者的激进程度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行目前预测2022年加息七次，法国巴黎银行预测加息六次，摩根大通和德意志银行预计加息五次。</blockquote></p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>野村控股公司甚至预计央行将在3月份加息50个基点，这将是自2000年以来的最大举措。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p><p><blockquote>彭博经济研究所坚持本月早些时候做出的五次加息的预测，尽管首席经济学家Anna Wong本周表示有六次加息的风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157223555","content_text":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693082951,"gmtCreate":1639929026745,"gmtModify":1639929026845,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573518300822142","idStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693082951","repostId":"2192035909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609845468,"gmtCreate":1638270683785,"gmtModify":1638270683853,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573518300822142","idStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609845468","repostId":"1147381319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147381319","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638263486,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147381319?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147381319","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla and NIO fell betw","content":"<p>Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla&nbsp;and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 2% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌。Canoo、Rivian、菲斯克、Lucid、理想汽车、特斯拉和蔚来跌幅在2%至3%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670da5061daa286e0cb1f79d91c7f025\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-30 17:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla&nbsp;and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 2% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌。Canoo、Rivian、菲斯克、Lucid、理想汽车、特斯拉和蔚来跌幅在2%至3%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670da5061daa286e0cb1f79d91c7f025\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","SEV":"Aptera Motors","NIO":"蔚来","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","FSR":"菲斯克","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147381319","content_text":"Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla and NIO fell between 2% and 3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"SEV":0.9,"LI":0.9,"GOEV":0.9,"FSR":0.9,"LCID":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692129051,"gmtCreate":1640877659766,"gmtModify":1640877659898,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573518300822142","idStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692129051","repostId":"1106092668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106092668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640876653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106092668?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106092668","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，称为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-30 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，称为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106092668","content_text":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent SelloffSummarySea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.IntroductionI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.GamingSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.Source: Earnings Call PresentationIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.E-CommerceSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.Source: The Author, compiled from AlexaShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnieOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.So why would a company with so much potential sell off?After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.FinTech & InvestmentsThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.ConclusionLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}