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16:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"2021年的“阿尔法”在哪里？私募大佬如是说","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2109701664","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大类资产配置的热门讨论","content":"<p>2021年大类资产配置的关键是什么？</p><p>在各大类资产均有显著涨幅后，2021年的“阿尔法”（超额收益机会）又在哪里？</p><p>近日，由朝阳永续主办的2020年度（第十五届）中国私募基金风云榜的策略论坛上，由半夏投资创始人李蓓担任主持人，知名私募从容投资、百亿债券私募银叶投资以及量化私募黑翼资产的合伙人一起围绕上述热门话题展开了精彩的讨论。</p><p><b>投资“右下角”的资产</b></p><p>从容投资董事长吕俊指出，2020年大类资产均出现上涨，处于估值区间靠上的位置。但要看到，债券资产仍处于便宜的位置，具有配置价值。</p><p>过去两年A股涨了很多，但并不是“全面的贵”，去年沪深300指数涨了20%，但涨幅集中于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603288\">海天味业</a>等核心资产，有大量的股票跌幅明显。因此，我们要去投资“右下角”的资产，在没涨的股票中挖掘机会。这反映了股票资产内部分化非常严重，整体市场的估值高，并没有发展到完全没有机会的程度。</p><p>吕俊还指出，虽然连续两年股市收益可观，但并不代表2021年机会就少。建议投资者不要乱折腾，特别是基金持有人要相信管理人的判断，更不要追随明星基金经理抄作业。</p><p><b>另类投资机会最大</b></p><p>百亿债券私募银叶投资许巳阳指出，2016年-2018年监管层主导去杠杆，市场在2018年出现“一半海水一半火焰”的情景，“火焰”就是指利率债资产，逐渐回到绝对值低点。</p><p>上个星期，中国央行的表态再次造成债券延续下跌局面。未来投资机会在利率债，现在正处于左侧阶段。如果十年期国债利率回到3.5%，这个水平处于过去二十年的中轴位置，今年存在波段做多的机会。要看到央行有着预期管理，全年有50个点的波动机会，需要投资者把握。</p><p>换言之，十年期国债利率到了3.5%才可能存在利率债交易机会，因此可预期的机会窗口是下半年，拐点还未出现。</p><p>今年上半年，我们将继续看到中国个人投资者200万亿财富持续转移，不断进入权益资产，风险偏好仍会上升。</p><p>债券资产最有显著机会的是不良资产和高收益债，属于一种另类投资。去年AAA国企信用风险暴露，央行投放了流动性，部分高收益债和不良资产出现好价格。</p><p>由于当前信用债市场容量很大，信用利差不大，但仍有阿尔法机会，市场阶段性承压的时候能够选到好券。</p><p>一个可以观望的拐点是今年年中。上半年经济预期将同比向上，央行流动性的方向盘转向将在上半年完成，债券在基金面也有出现高波动；此外，拜登上台后推出强刺激计划，将带来外需提振，幅度可能超预期，对中国出口规模也会有影响。</p><p><b>看好沪深300增强策略</b></p><p>黑翼资产合伙人邹倚天指出：今年沪深300指数增强的机会大于中证500。但近两年来，中证500增强策略的阿尔法都在衰减。</p><p>一个重要的问题是：2020年初量化私募资产从2000亿扩展至5000亿，直接影响到市场的阿尔法。目前，沪深300指数增强做的偏少，均集中于中证500增强，因此存在投资机会。</p><p>目前支持高频阿尔法策略的难度加大，整个因子的迭代速度非常快，未来量化要采取多元化的因子，包括偏市场行为的因子、动量因子、基本面因子和分析师因子。</p><p>量化基金的回报水平难以单看一年表现，量化策略不押注任何市场风格和行业，持仓有500-1000只股票，因此以三到五年为考察周期。</p><p>如果谈量化投资风险，主要就是策略过于拥挤，产生策略同质化，因此要确保管理人的策略容量与管理规模匹配，研发低相关性的策略。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021年的“阿尔法”在哪里？私募大佬如是说\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-07 16:15 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619790><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2021年大类资产配置的关键是什么？在各大类资产均有显著涨幅后，2021年的“阿尔法”（超额收益机会）又在哪里？近日，由朝阳永续主办的2020年度（第十五届）中国私募基金风云榜的策略论坛上，由半夏投资创始人李蓓担任主持人，知名私募从容投资、百亿债券私募银叶投资以及量化私募黑翼资产的合伙人一起围绕上述热门话题展开了精彩的讨论。投资“右下角”的资产从容投资董事长吕俊指出，2020年大类资产均出现上涨，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619790\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af47ab6c10e46f0aea6733871f311696","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619790","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2109701664","content_text":"2021年大类资产配置的关键是什么？在各大类资产均有显著涨幅后，2021年的“阿尔法”（超额收益机会）又在哪里？近日，由朝阳永续主办的2020年度（第十五届）中国私募基金风云榜的策略论坛上，由半夏投资创始人李蓓担任主持人，知名私募从容投资、百亿债券私募银叶投资以及量化私募黑翼资产的合伙人一起围绕上述热门话题展开了精彩的讨论。投资“右下角”的资产从容投资董事长吕俊指出，2020年大类资产均出现上涨，处于估值区间靠上的位置。但要看到，债券资产仍处于便宜的位置，具有配置价值。过去两年A股涨了很多，但并不是“全面的贵”，去年沪深300指数涨了20%，但涨幅集中于贵州茅台、海天味业等核心资产，有大量的股票跌幅明显。因此，我们要去投资“右下角”的资产，在没涨的股票中挖掘机会。这反映了股票资产内部分化非常严重，整体市场的估值高，并没有发展到完全没有机会的程度。吕俊还指出，虽然连续两年股市收益可观，但并不代表2021年机会就少。建议投资者不要乱折腾，特别是基金持有人要相信管理人的判断，更不要追随明星基金经理抄作业。另类投资机会最大百亿债券私募银叶投资许巳阳指出，2016年-2018年监管层主导去杠杆，市场在2018年出现“一半海水一半火焰”的情景，“火焰”就是指利率债资产，逐渐回到绝对值低点。上个星期，中国央行的表态再次造成债券延续下跌局面。未来投资机会在利率债，现在正处于左侧阶段。如果十年期国债利率回到3.5%，这个水平处于过去二十年的中轴位置，今年存在波段做多的机会。要看到央行有着预期管理，全年有50个点的波动机会，需要投资者把握。换言之，十年期国债利率到了3.5%才可能存在利率债交易机会，因此可预期的机会窗口是下半年，拐点还未出现。今年上半年，我们将继续看到中国个人投资者200万亿财富持续转移，不断进入权益资产，风险偏好仍会上升。债券资产最有显著机会的是不良资产和高收益债，属于一种另类投资。去年AAA国企信用风险暴露，央行投放了流动性，部分高收益债和不良资产出现好价格。由于当前信用债市场容量很大，信用利差不大，但仍有阿尔法机会，市场阶段性承压的时候能够选到好券。一个可以观望的拐点是今年年中。上半年经济预期将同比向上，央行流动性的方向盘转向将在上半年完成，债券在基金面也有出现高波动；此外，拜登上台后推出强刺激计划，将带来外需提振，幅度可能超预期，对中国出口规模也会有影响。看好沪深300增强策略黑翼资产合伙人邹倚天指出：今年沪深300指数增强的机会大于中证500。但近两年来，中证500增强策略的阿尔法都在衰减。一个重要的问题是：2020年初量化私募资产从2000亿扩展至5000亿，直接影响到市场的阿尔法。目前，沪深300指数增强做的偏少，均集中于中证500增强，因此存在投资机会。目前支持高频阿尔法策略的难度加大，整个因子的迭代速度非常快，未来量化要采取多元化的因子，包括偏市场行为的因子、动量因子、基本面因子和分析师因子。量化基金的回报水平难以单看一年表现，量化策略不押注任何市场风格和行业，持仓有500-1000只股票，因此以三到五年为考察周期。如果谈量化投资风险，主要就是策略过于拥挤，产生策略同质化，因此要确保管理人的策略容量与管理规模匹配，研发低相关性的策略。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZTmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389374329,"gmtCreate":1612704947461,"gmtModify":1703764382962,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不要放弃呀","listText":"不要放弃呀","text":"不要放弃呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389374329","repostId":"1184379788","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380768956,"gmtCreate":1612592959975,"gmtModify":1703763907706,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"荔枝大涨近60%，股价本周已翻三倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197633592","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，荔枝盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成","content":"<p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0297cfccff0a8a073407a5bb08626","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197633592","content_text":"周四，荔枝盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LIZI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317584545,"gmtCreate":1612455551187,"gmtModify":1703762251235,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛","listText":"牛","text":"牛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317584545","repostId":"1197633592","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197633592","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1612451567,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197633592?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-04 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23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0297cfccff0a8a073407a5bb08626","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197633592","content_text":"周四，荔枝盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LIZI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317584343,"gmtCreate":1612455520582,"gmtModify":1703762250721,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314011379","repostId":"1106299362","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315159926,"gmtCreate":1612224636965,"gmtModify":1703758971304,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冲鸭","listText":"冲鸭","text":"冲鸭","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315159926","repostId":"1134189009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315127148,"gmtCreate":1612224503684,"gmtModify":1703758968360,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冲啊冲啊冲啊冲啊","listText":"冲啊冲啊冲啊冲啊","text":"冲啊冲啊冲啊冲啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315127148","repostId":"1167492371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167492371","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612149335,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167492371?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-01 11:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"逼空大战引发余震，华尔街警告本周市场变数","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167492371","media":"Wind","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道，在美股“逼空”行情过后，本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点：亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩，而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓，或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。\n市","content":"<p>香港万得通讯社报道，在美股“逼空”行情过后，本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点：亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩，而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓，或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。</p>\n<p>市场本周迎接逼空大战以外的最大“变数”</p>\n<p>在周二市场收盘后，谷歌母公司Alphabet和亚马逊都将发布报告。分析师预期Alphabet四季度收入增长较三季度加快，原因是广告客户运营条件的改善有助于年底业绩的增长。华尔街预期，不计流量收购成本的销售额增长18%，至441.6亿美元，而第三季度的增长为15%。</p>\n<p>摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析师道格·安穆斯（Doug Anmuth）在上周的一份报告中写道：“我们对搜索引擎营销商（SEM）的检查显示，搜索支出从3季度加速至4季度。”他补充说：“某些垂直行业受到疫情的严重影响，其中包括我们认为在疫情之前占收入10-15%的旅行，由于复苏和相关停工，整个4季度仍可能受到挑战，” “我们相信，随着消费者继续接种疫苗，这些垂直领域的复苏将持续，从而推动广告收入的进一步增长。”</p>\n<p>同时，受疫情期间在线购物的需求推动，电子商务巨头亚马逊很可能会报告另一个惊人的季度。该公司可能将发布其第一个季度收入超过1000亿美元的财报，这将使2020年全年收入达到惊人的3790亿美元。</p>\n<p>瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）分析师斯蒂芬·朱（Stephen Ju）在上周的一份报告中写道：“全球消费者越来越依赖线上购物，这对亚马逊具有以下近乎长期的潜在影响：1、2021年及以后的GMV （总商品价值）估计值有上升空间； 2、更高的购买频率增强了亚马逊的客户获取/留存成本/品牌价值。”</p>\n<p>但是，尽管收入在第四季度和假日购物旺季销售可能再次飙升，但亚马逊上一季度也增加了支出，以维持业务增长并在疫情期间提高员工的安全性。亚马逊表示，考虑到与疫情相关的成本约为40亿美元，其第四季度的营业收入将在10亿美元至45亿美元之间。相比之下，2019年第四季度的营业收入为39亿美元。</p>\n<p>周五，美国劳工部1月份的就业报告很可能表明，在12月就业人数下降之后，经济将在2021年初恢复增加的就业人数。Capital Economics高级美国经济学家安德鲁·亨特（Andrew Hunter）在周四的报告中称：“我们估计1月份非农就业人数基本没有变化，但近期的财政支持和新病毒病例的回落表明劳动力市场将很快恢复。”</p>\n<p>逼空大战或引发“余震”，华尔街警告抛售风险</p>\n<p>亚马逊和Alphabet的季报收益，1月份就业报告以及华盛顿对刺激政策的讨论可能对未来一周的市场都很重要，但没有什么比散户投资者推动的“轧空行情”更引起市场关注。</p>\n<p>高盛警告称，随着散户投资者以创纪录的数量进入市场，交易热潮还将持续，而逼空行情甚至可能给市场带来大幅回调。该投资银行在周五晚间的一份报告中写道：“根据高盛总理服务部的数据，本周是自2009年2月以来最大的活跃对冲基金减仓。基金为弥补空头亏损卖出了多头头寸，涵盖了各个领域。”</p>\n<p>“尽管进行了积极的去杠杆化，对冲基金的净值和按市值计的总风险敞口仍然接近有记录以来的最高水平，这表明存在由头寸驱动的抛售的持续风险。”高盛分析师写道：“上周的情况表明，市场一小部分不可持续的过度投机，有可能引发一系列多米诺骨牌效应，并造成更广泛的动荡。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee6f9b7cef1d9e60efd3c019a96722a\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外，尽管近期美股市场的轧空行为主要集中在小市值个股上，但高盛分析师表示，大量的轧空将导致投资者减少其他个股的多头头寸，以弥补空头上的亏损，而这将会使市场波动蔓延至至市值较大的个股。近年来美股低成交量和高集中度的交易特征越来越明显，这增加了一只基金的清盘可能在市场上滚雪球的风险。</p>\n<p>另一方面，高盛承认“散户交易的繁荣可以继续”，因为“大量的美国家庭现金应继续推动交易的繁荣”。当前5万亿美元规模的货币基金市场中，超过50%是由家庭单位持有，较疫情前增长了1万亿美元。如果短期轧空行情继续维持，可能对资本市场的未来产生深远影响。</p>\n<p>但除了高盛的警告声以外，多家投行并不认为近期市场的轧空行情会将风险扩散到整个市场。根据巴克莱银行的统计，卖空交易总额为8000亿美元，约占美国股票总市值的2%，这表明卖空者还没有扩大规模。大量做空的公司(利息占其流通股的20%以上)有400亿美元的股票被做空，占全部看跌押注的5%。</p>\n<p>巴克莱银行的Deshpande在上周五的一份报告中提到GameStop的股票行情时写道:“尽管卖空始于GME，但似乎正在向更广泛的股票范围蔓延。”“尽管我们预计会出现更多的去杠杆化，但最终问题的规模似乎相当有限。”</p>\n<p>此外，虽然标准普尔500指数上周下跌了3%以上，但交易员们认为大盘走势井然有序。对于包括杜布拉科夫•拉科斯布哈斯在内的摩根大通策略师来说，这次下跌可能只是“短暂的技术性下跌”。分析师在周五的报告中写道，随着企业收益改善和美国消费者走强，这次回落是增加股市的又一个机会，尤其是那些与经济复苏相关的股票。</p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n逼空大战引发余震，华尔街警告本周市场变数\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-01 11:15 北京时间 <a href=https://snap.windin.com/ns/findsnap.php?code=CE988E7E6432&sourcename=snap.windin.com&ad=0&sitetype=1&sourcetype=1&id=523061276&terminaltype=wft.m&device=ios&version=21.1.1&show=wft&share=wechat><strong>Wind</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>香港万得通讯社报道，在美股“逼空”行情过后，本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点：亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩，而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓，或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。\n市场本周迎接逼空大战以外的最大“变数”\n在周二市场收盘后，谷歌母公司Alphabet和亚马逊都将发布报告。分析师预期Alphabet四季度收入增长较三季度加快，原因是广告客户运营条件的改善有助于年底业绩...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://snap.windin.com/ns/findsnap.php?code=CE988E7E6432&sourcename=snap.windin.com&ad=0&sitetype=1&sourcetype=1&id=523061276&terminaltype=wft.m&device=ios&version=21.1.1&show=wft&share=wechat\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c56ea9f4571ab8517325db0c66a1a81","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://snap.windin.com/ns/findsnap.php?code=CE988E7E6432&sourcename=snap.windin.com&ad=0&sitetype=1&sourcetype=1&id=523061276&terminaltype=wft.m&device=ios&version=21.1.1&show=wft&share=wechat","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167492371","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道，在美股“逼空”行情过后，本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点：亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩，而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓，或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。\n市场本周迎接逼空大战以外的最大“变数”\n在周二市场收盘后，谷歌母公司Alphabet和亚马逊都将发布报告。分析师预期Alphabet四季度收入增长较三季度加快，原因是广告客户运营条件的改善有助于年底业绩的增长。华尔街预期，不计流量收购成本的销售额增长18%，至441.6亿美元，而第三季度的增长为15%。\n摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析师道格·安穆斯（Doug Anmuth）在上周的一份报告中写道：“我们对搜索引擎营销商（SEM）的检查显示，搜索支出从3季度加速至4季度。”他补充说：“某些垂直行业受到疫情的严重影响，其中包括我们认为在疫情之前占收入10-15%的旅行，由于复苏和相关停工，整个4季度仍可能受到挑战，” “我们相信，随着消费者继续接种疫苗，这些垂直领域的复苏将持续，从而推动广告收入的进一步增长。”\n同时，受疫情期间在线购物的需求推动，电子商务巨头亚马逊很可能会报告另一个惊人的季度。该公司可能将发布其第一个季度收入超过1000亿美元的财报，这将使2020年全年收入达到惊人的3790亿美元。\n瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）分析师斯蒂芬·朱（Stephen Ju）在上周的一份报告中写道：“全球消费者越来越依赖线上购物，这对亚马逊具有以下近乎长期的潜在影响：1、2021年及以后的GMV （总商品价值）估计值有上升空间； 2、更高的购买频率增强了亚马逊的客户获取/留存成本/品牌价值。”\n但是，尽管收入在第四季度和假日购物旺季销售可能再次飙升，但亚马逊上一季度也增加了支出，以维持业务增长并在疫情期间提高员工的安全性。亚马逊表示，考虑到与疫情相关的成本约为40亿美元，其第四季度的营业收入将在10亿美元至45亿美元之间。相比之下，2019年第四季度的营业收入为39亿美元。\n周五，美国劳工部1月份的就业报告很可能表明，在12月就业人数下降之后，经济将在2021年初恢复增加的就业人数。Capital Economics高级美国经济学家安德鲁·亨特（Andrew 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