MasterZheng的个人主页 - 老虎社区

MasterZheng

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2022-01-19

Banks follow prices, not the other way round

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-01-18

‌$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$‌3月底40以下

2021-12-10

How much did Grab pay this guy. My TP is $4.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-10

$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$i forgot to buy my pton puts[Cry]

2021-12-03

$PTON 20211203 44.0 PUT(PTON)$Shorting PTON weekly is like free money now

2021-12-03

$AFRM 20211210 120.0 PUT(AFRM)$Overvalued stocks starting to crumble

2021-12-03

It is the next tesla. 1 trllion here we go.

Why Investors Need to Stay Far Away From Rivian (for Now)<blockquote>为什么投资者需要远离Rivian（目前）</blockquote>

2021-12-02

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$once it gets bank charter it should be valued similar to bank stocks, PE of 10-15

2021-12-02

$AFRM 20211210 120.0 PUT(AFRM)$Speculative stocks falling

2021-12-01

$HOOD 20211231 25.0 PUT(HOOD)$The way to make money with hood is to short. Decreasing revenue trend, unprofitable, and no moat.

2021-12-01

$RIVN 20211231 100.0 PUT(RIVN)$why is this a 100B company?

2021-12-01

$OPEN 20211217 16.0 PUT(OPEN)$Going the way of zillow

2021-11-30

$NVDA 20211203 320.0 CALL(NVDA)$Ride it to 400

2021-11-25

$F 20211126 20.0 CALL(F)$The true EV company

2021-11-25

$AAPL 20211126 160.0 CALL(AAPL)$AAPL never disappoints

2021-11-24

$FB 20211126 340.0 CALL(FB)$always believe in FAANG

2021-11-24

This might affect price today

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-24

$OPEN 20211217 16.0 PUT(OPEN)$insider dumping stocks

2021-11-23

$GOOG 20211126 3000.0 CALL(GOOG)$no good

2021-11-23

$ZM 20211203 245.0 PUT(ZM)$continue shorting

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Inc.(AFRM)$</a>‌3月底40以下","text":"‌$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$‌3月底40以下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697269907","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605303393,"gmtCreate":1639107684235,"gmtModify":1639107756196,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How much did Grab pay this guy. My TP is $4.","listText":"How much did Grab pay this guy. My TP is $4.","text":"How much did Grab pay this guy. 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But the numbers (or lack thereof) don't add up.","content":"<p>One of the hottest companies in the investing universe right now is&nbsp;<b>Rivian</b>. The electric vehicle start-up just went public at a market cap north of $100 billion, which is astounding considering the fact it has never generated any sales. With the rise of&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>, the market leader in&nbsp;electric vehicles, to a market cap north of $1 trillion recently, the excitement around this new industry has reached a fever pitch.</p><p><blockquote>目前投资界最热门的公司之一是<b>Rivian</b>这家电动汽车初创公司刚刚上市，市值超过1000亿美元，考虑到它从未产生任何销售额，这令人震惊。随着<b>特斯拉</b>电动汽车市场的领导者，市值最近超过1万亿美元，围绕这个新行业的兴奋已经达到了白热化的程度。</blockquote></p><p> While Rivian's prospectus is exciting, and the company is going after a huge market opportunity, the price one must pay for all this potential is simply too much to ask. Here are a few reasons why investors need to stay far away from Rivian stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Rivian的招股说明书令人兴奋，而且该公司正在寻求巨大的市场机会，但为所有这些潜力所付出的代价实在是太高了。以下是投资者目前需要远离Rivian股票的一些原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af764bd447f10cf89d9c92eb80ad9d14\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Rivian.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：Rivian。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The company is pre-revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司是预营收</b></blockquote></p><p> At a most basic level, Rivian is not a suitable company to invest in at a market cap of $106 billion because it has never generated any revenue, let alone profits or free cash flow. According to its S-1, which is the SEC filing companies are required to put out before going through an initial public offering (IPO), Rivian produced 12 vehicles in the third quarter, all of which were sold to employees.</p><p><blockquote>从最基本的层面来看，Rivian并不是一家市值1060亿美元的合适投资公司，因为它从未产生过任何收入，更不用说利润或自由现金流了。根据S-1（公司在进行首次公开募股(IPO)之前必须向SEC提交的文件），Rivian第三季度生产了12辆汽车，全部出售给员工。</blockquote></p><p> By the end of 2021, it expects to produce 1,200 R1Ts (an electric truck), and by the end of 2023, it expects to produce 55,400 total vehicles, which would clear out its current backlog of orders. If Rivian sells these vehicles at an average price of $67,500, the standard cost on its website for the R1T right now, it will generate around $3.7 billion in revenue from now until the end of 2023. With $1.7 billion in negative free cash flow in the first six months of this year, this hypothetical $3.7 billion in revenue would not even come close to covering Rivian's current expense base (which will likely grow as it starts manufacturing at scale). It will likely take three to five years, if not longer, for Rivian to start generating positive free cash flow for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>到2021年底，预计将生产1,200辆R1T（电动卡车），到2023年底，预计将生产55,400辆汽车，这将清除目前积压的订单。如果Rivian以67,500美元的平均价格（其网站上目前R1T的标准成本）出售这些车辆，那么从现在到2023年底，它将产生约37亿美元的收入。由于今年前六个月自由现金流为负17亿美元，这一假设的37亿美元收入甚至无法覆盖Rivian当前的费用基础（随着其开始大规模生产，费用基础可能会增长）。Rivian可能需要三到五年甚至更长时间才能开始为股东产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manufacturing cars is a tough business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>制造汽车是一项艰难的事业</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's current installed base is for 65,000 R1Ts and 85,000 RCVs (its commercial van), giving it the capacity to generate 150,000 cars a year. Assuming a ballpark average selling price of $67,500 for all these vehicles, that would be over $10 billion in annual revenue for Rivian once it reaches scale. One might assume at this revenue and manufacturing level Rivian would be profitable. But that is misguided thinking.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian目前的安装基础是65,000辆R1T和85,000辆RCV（其商用货车），使其每年能够生产150,000辆汽车。假设所有这些车辆的平均售价约为67,500美元，一旦Rivian达到规模，其年收入将超过100亿美元。人们可能会认为，在这种收入和制造水平下，Rivian将会盈利。但这是被误导的想法。</blockquote></p><p> If we look at Tesla, its closest competitor that is a pure-play electric vehicle manufacturer, it only got close to free cash flow breakeven in 2018 when it delivered 245,000 vehicles. Manufacturing cars is expensive, and investors in Rivian shouldn't expect profit margins to be very high, even once Rivian reaches any sort of maturity a decade from now. Rivian needs to start ramping up its vehicle deliveries, and fast, in order to get anywhere close to fulfilling a market cap of $106 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看它最接近的竞争对手特斯拉，一家纯电动汽车制造商，它在2018年交付了245,000辆汽车时才接近自由现金流盈亏平衡。制造汽车的成本很高，Rivian的投资者不应该指望利润率会很高，即使十年后Rivian达到某种程度的成熟度。Rivian需要开始快速增加汽车交付量，以便接近1060亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Every automaker is all-in on electric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每个汽车制造商都全力投入电动汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> One reason Tesla was able to grow unabated for so long is that no other company was taking electric vehicles seriously. This is not the market environment we are currently in. The big car manufacturers along with Tesla and other pure-play electric vehicle start-ups are all investing tens of billions to compete over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉能够长期有增无减的增长原因之一是没有其他公司认真对待电动汽车。这不是我们目前所处的市场环境。大型汽车制造商以及特斯拉和其他纯电动汽车初创企业都在投资数百亿美元来参与未来十年的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford</b>&nbsp;has committed $11.4 billion to invest in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing in the U.S.&nbsp;<b>Toyota</b>&nbsp;has committed $13.5 billion to battery development and production alone. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Over the next five years, competition for electric vehicles will be fierce. Starting at a standstill, Rivian has a tough hill to climb if it wants to gain significant market share in the electric vehicle market.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特</b>已承诺投资114亿美元在美国投资电池和电动汽车制造。<b>丰田</b>仅电池开发和生产就投入了135亿美元。而这只是冰山一角。未来五年，电动汽车的竞争将非常激烈。从停滞开始，Rivian如果想在电动汽车市场获得可观的市场份额，就有一座艰难的山要爬。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't forget about the company</b></p><p><blockquote><b>别忘了公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's stock would likely be overvalued even if it got a 95% haircut, but the company can still go on your watch list if you are&nbsp;bullish on the electric vehicle industry. With $17 billion in cash on its balance sheet after the IPO, a 100,000 fleet order for electric delivery vans going to&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>, and a sleek-looking truck, Rivian has a chance to grow quickly over the next five years. But paying for the stock at this valuation for the chance that happens when the company is pre-revenue is not a smart bet for investors to make.</p><p><blockquote>即使Rivian的股价下跌95%，其股价也可能被高估，但如果您看好电动汽车行业，该公司仍然可以列入您的观察名单。IPO后，其资产负债表上有170亿美元现金，10万辆电动送货车车队订单将<b>亚马逊</b>以及外观时尚的卡车，Rivian有机会在未来五年内快速增长。但对于投资者来说，以这样的估值购买股票以换取公司盈利前发生的机会并不是一个明智的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Investors Need to Stay Far Away From Rivian (for Now)<blockquote>为什么投资者需要远离Rivian（目前）</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Investors Need to Stay Far Away From Rivian (for Now)<blockquote>为什么投资者需要远离Rivian（目前）</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-03 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the hottest companies in the investing universe right now is&nbsp;<b>Rivian</b>. The electric vehicle start-up just went public at a market cap north of $100 billion, which is astounding considering the fact it has never generated any sales. With the rise of&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>, the market leader in&nbsp;electric vehicles, to a market cap north of $1 trillion recently, the excitement around this new industry has reached a fever pitch.</p><p><blockquote>目前投资界最热门的公司之一是<b>Rivian</b>这家电动汽车初创公司刚刚上市，市值超过1000亿美元，考虑到它从未产生任何销售额，这令人震惊。随着<b>特斯拉</b>电动汽车市场的领导者，市值最近超过1万亿美元，围绕这个新行业的兴奋已经达到了白热化的程度。</blockquote></p><p> While Rivian's prospectus is exciting, and the company is going after a huge market opportunity, the price one must pay for all this potential is simply too much to ask. Here are a few reasons why investors need to stay far away from Rivian stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Rivian的招股说明书令人兴奋，而且该公司正在寻求巨大的市场机会，但为所有这些潜力所付出的代价实在是太高了。以下是投资者目前需要远离Rivian股票的一些原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af764bd447f10cf89d9c92eb80ad9d14\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Rivian.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：Rivian。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The company is pre-revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司是预营收</b></blockquote></p><p> At a most basic level, Rivian is not a suitable company to invest in at a market cap of $106 billion because it has never generated any revenue, let alone profits or free cash flow. According to its S-1, which is the SEC filing companies are required to put out before going through an initial public offering (IPO), Rivian produced 12 vehicles in the third quarter, all of which were sold to employees.</p><p><blockquote>从最基本的层面来看，Rivian并不是一家市值1060亿美元的合适投资公司，因为它从未产生过任何收入，更不用说利润或自由现金流了。根据S-1（公司在进行首次公开募股(IPO)之前必须向SEC提交的文件），Rivian第三季度生产了12辆汽车，全部出售给员工。</blockquote></p><p> By the end of 2021, it expects to produce 1,200 R1Ts (an electric truck), and by the end of 2023, it expects to produce 55,400 total vehicles, which would clear out its current backlog of orders. If Rivian sells these vehicles at an average price of $67,500, the standard cost on its website for the R1T right now, it will generate around $3.7 billion in revenue from now until the end of 2023. With $1.7 billion in negative free cash flow in the first six months of this year, this hypothetical $3.7 billion in revenue would not even come close to covering Rivian's current expense base (which will likely grow as it starts manufacturing at scale). It will likely take three to five years, if not longer, for Rivian to start generating positive free cash flow for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>到2021年底，预计将生产1,200辆R1T（电动卡车），到2023年底，预计将生产55,400辆汽车，这将清除目前积压的订单。如果Rivian以67,500美元的平均价格（其网站上目前R1T的标准成本）出售这些车辆，那么从现在到2023年底，它将产生约37亿美元的收入。由于今年前六个月自由现金流为负17亿美元，这一假设的37亿美元收入甚至无法覆盖Rivian当前的费用基础（随着其开始大规模生产，费用基础可能会增长）。Rivian可能需要三到五年甚至更长时间才能开始为股东产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manufacturing cars is a tough business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>制造汽车是一项艰难的事业</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's current installed base is for 65,000 R1Ts and 85,000 RCVs (its commercial van), giving it the capacity to generate 150,000 cars a year. Assuming a ballpark average selling price of $67,500 for all these vehicles, that would be over $10 billion in annual revenue for Rivian once it reaches scale. One might assume at this revenue and manufacturing level Rivian would be profitable. But that is misguided thinking.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian目前的安装基础是65,000辆R1T和85,000辆RCV（其商用货车），使其每年能够生产150,000辆汽车。假设所有这些车辆的平均售价约为67,500美元，一旦Rivian达到规模，其年收入将超过100亿美元。人们可能会认为，在这种收入和制造水平下，Rivian将会盈利。但这是被误导的想法。</blockquote></p><p> If we look at Tesla, its closest competitor that is a pure-play electric vehicle manufacturer, it only got close to free cash flow breakeven in 2018 when it delivered 245,000 vehicles. Manufacturing cars is expensive, and investors in Rivian shouldn't expect profit margins to be very high, even once Rivian reaches any sort of maturity a decade from now. Rivian needs to start ramping up its vehicle deliveries, and fast, in order to get anywhere close to fulfilling a market cap of $106 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看它最接近的竞争对手特斯拉，一家纯电动汽车制造商，它在2018年交付了245,000辆汽车时才接近自由现金流盈亏平衡。制造汽车的成本很高，Rivian的投资者不应该指望利润率会很高，即使十年后Rivian达到某种程度的成熟度。Rivian需要开始快速增加汽车交付量，以便接近1060亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Every automaker is all-in on electric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每个汽车制造商都全力投入电动汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> One reason Tesla was able to grow unabated for so long is that no other company was taking electric vehicles seriously. This is not the market environment we are currently in. The big car manufacturers along with Tesla and other pure-play electric vehicle start-ups are all investing tens of billions to compete over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉能够长期有增无减的增长原因之一是没有其他公司认真对待电动汽车。这不是我们目前所处的市场环境。大型汽车制造商以及特斯拉和其他纯电动汽车初创企业都在投资数百亿美元来参与未来十年的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford</b>&nbsp;has committed $11.4 billion to invest in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing in the U.S.&nbsp;<b>Toyota</b>&nbsp;has committed $13.5 billion to battery development and production alone. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Over the next five years, competition for electric vehicles will be fierce. Starting at a standstill, Rivian has a tough hill to climb if it wants to gain significant market share in the electric vehicle market.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特</b>已承诺投资114亿美元在美国投资电池和电动汽车制造。<b>丰田</b>仅电池开发和生产就投入了135亿美元。而这只是冰山一角。未来五年，电动汽车的竞争将非常激烈。从停滞开始，Rivian如果想在电动汽车市场获得可观的市场份额，就有一座艰难的山要爬。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't forget about the company</b></p><p><blockquote><b>别忘了公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's stock would likely be overvalued even if it got a 95% haircut, but the company can still go on your watch list if you are&nbsp;bullish on the electric vehicle industry. With $17 billion in cash on its balance sheet after the IPO, a 100,000 fleet order for electric delivery vans going to&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>, and a sleek-looking truck, Rivian has a chance to grow quickly over the next five years. But paying for the stock at this valuation for the chance that happens when the company is pre-revenue is not a smart bet for investors to make.</p><p><blockquote>即使Rivian的股价下跌95%，其股价也可能被高估，但如果您看好电动汽车行业，该公司仍然可以列入您的观察名单。IPO后，其资产负债表上有170亿美元现金，10万辆电动送货车车队订单将<b>亚马逊</b>以及外观时尚的卡车，Rivian有机会在未来五年内快速增长。但对于投资者来说，以这样的估值购买股票以换取公司盈利前发生的机会并不是一个明智的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/02/why-investors-need-to-stay-far-away-from-rivian/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/02/why-investors-need-to-stay-far-away-from-rivian/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100339971","content_text":"One of the hottest companies in the investing universe right now is Rivian. The electric vehicle start-up just went public at a market cap north of $100 billion, which is astounding considering the fact it has never generated any sales. With the rise of Tesla, the market leader in electric vehicles, to a market cap north of $1 trillion recently, the excitement around this new industry has reached a fever pitch.\nWhile Rivian's prospectus is exciting, and the company is going after a huge market opportunity, the price one must pay for all this potential is simply too much to ask. Here are a few reasons why investors need to stay far away from Rivian stock right now.\nImage source: Rivian.\nThe company is pre-revenue\nAt a most basic level, Rivian is not a suitable company to invest in at a market cap of $106 billion because it has never generated any revenue, let alone profits or free cash flow. According to its S-1, which is the SEC filing companies are required to put out before going through an initial public offering (IPO), Rivian produced 12 vehicles in the third quarter, all of which were sold to employees.\nBy the end of 2021, it expects to produce 1,200 R1Ts (an electric truck), and by the end of 2023, it expects to produce 55,400 total vehicles, which would clear out its current backlog of orders. If Rivian sells these vehicles at an average price of $67,500, the standard cost on its website for the R1T right now, it will generate around $3.7 billion in revenue from now until the end of 2023. With $1.7 billion in negative free cash flow in the first six months of this year, this hypothetical $3.7 billion in revenue would not even come close to covering Rivian's current expense base (which will likely grow as it starts manufacturing at scale). It will likely take three to five years, if not longer, for Rivian to start generating positive free cash flow for shareholders.\nManufacturing cars is a tough business\nRivian's current installed base is for 65,000 R1Ts and 85,000 RCVs (its commercial van), giving it the capacity to generate 150,000 cars a year. Assuming a ballpark average selling price of $67,500 for all these vehicles, that would be over $10 billion in annual revenue for Rivian once it reaches scale. One might assume at this revenue and manufacturing level Rivian would be profitable. But that is misguided thinking.\nIf we look at Tesla, its closest competitor that is a pure-play electric vehicle manufacturer, it only got close to free cash flow breakeven in 2018 when it delivered 245,000 vehicles. Manufacturing cars is expensive, and investors in Rivian shouldn't expect profit margins to be very high, even once Rivian reaches any sort of maturity a decade from now. Rivian needs to start ramping up its vehicle deliveries, and fast, in order to get anywhere close to fulfilling a market cap of $106 billion.\nEvery automaker is all-in on electric\nOne reason Tesla was able to grow unabated for so long is that no other company was taking electric vehicles seriously. This is not the market environment we are currently in. The big car manufacturers along with Tesla and other pure-play electric vehicle start-ups are all investing tens of billions to compete over the next decade.\nFord has committed $11.4 billion to invest in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing in the U.S. Toyota has committed $13.5 billion to battery development and production alone. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Over the next five years, competition for electric vehicles will be fierce. Starting at a standstill, Rivian has a tough hill to climb if it wants to gain significant market share in the electric vehicle market.\nDon't forget about the company\nRivian's stock would likely be overvalued even if it got a 95% haircut, but the company can still go on your watch list if you are bullish on the electric vehicle industry. With $17 billion in cash on its balance sheet after the IPO, a 100,000 fleet order for electric delivery vans going to Amazon, and a sleek-looking truck, Rivian has a chance to grow quickly over the next five years. But paying for the stock at this valuation for the chance that happens when the company is pre-revenue is not a smart bet for investors to make.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603272725,"gmtCreate":1638419841044,"gmtModify":1638419841290,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>once it gets bank charter it should be valued similar to bank stocks, PE of 10-15","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>once it gets bank charter it should be valued similar to bank stocks, PE of 10-15","text":"$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$once it gets bank charter it should be valued similar to bank stocks, PE of 10-15","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603272725","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603695861,"gmtCreate":1638403799037,"gmtModify":1638403799207,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$AFRM 20211210 120.0 PUT(AFRM)$</a>Speculative stocks falling","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$AFRM 20211210 120.0 PUT(AFRM)$</a>Speculative stocks falling","text":"$AFRM 20211210 120.0 PUT(AFRM)$Speculative stocks falling","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc52abfa1abf6e8b1def1bc50939db74","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603695861","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603115403,"gmtCreate":1638373134064,"gmtModify":1638373134273,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$HOOD 20211231 25.0 PUT(HOOD)$</a>The way to make money with hood is to short. 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Decreasing revenue trend, unprofitable, and no moat.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba7d6e9e7ad5474c7a7461784ee3fd46","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603115403","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609597422,"gmtCreate":1638293503111,"gmtModify":1638293503111,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$RIVN 20211231 100.0 PUT(RIVN)$</a>why is this a 100B company?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$RIVN 20211231 100.0 PUT(RIVN)$</a>why is this a 100B 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Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$once it gets bank charter it should be valued similar to bank stocks, PE of 10-15","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603272725","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609597422,"gmtCreate":1638293503111,"gmtModify":1638293503111,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$RIVN 20211231 100.0 PUT(RIVN)$</a>why is this a 100B company?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$RIVN 20211231 100.0 PUT(RIVN)$</a>why is this a 100B company?","text":"$RIVN 20211231 100.0 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CALL(ALB.HK)$patience","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd3b733ff3985937aadd59bb53411b4f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828282474","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187204285,"gmtCreate":1623754322447,"gmtModify":1634028992682,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187204285","repostId":"1145996523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145996523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623751116,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145996523?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 17:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?<blockquote>投资者和美联储并没有对通胀感到恐慌。他们应该吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145996523","media":"cnn","summary":"New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it co","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）在通货膨胀方面，大街和华尔街之间存在巨大的脱节。总得有所让步。</blockquote></p><p> The US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府上周报告称，5月份不包括食品和能源的消费者价格涨幅为1992年以来最快。宣伟(SHW)正在提高油漆价格，这是众多应对大宗商品成本上涨的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Food prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).</p><p><blockquote>食品价格也在飙升。Chipotle(CMG)刚刚提高了价格。金宝汤（CPB）也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> And the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave &amp; Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅和街机连锁店Dave&amp;Buster's(PLAY)的首席财务官在最近与分析师举行的财报看涨期权上表示，由于鸡肉、牛肉和乳制品价格上涨，他预计2021年食品成本将上涨6%至8%。</blockquote></p><p> Wages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.</p><p><blockquote>工资也在上涨，尤其是随着经济重新开放而重返工作岗位的零售、休闲和酒店行业的工人。这增加了通胀压力，因为一些公司会选择提高价格以维持利润。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages aren't helping.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺无济于事。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.</p><p><blockquote>在线宠物零售商Chewy(CHWY)的首席执行官在最新财报发布后致股东的一封信中写道，该公司“面临着与全国许多公司类似的劳动力短缺问题”。因此，Chewy继续“投资于更高的工资和福利”，以填补职位空缺。</blockquote></p><p> Yet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者和美联储对通胀上升不屑一顾，认为这是“暂时的”。长期债券收益率正在下降，这通常不会在通胀加剧时发生。如果债券投资者认为价格上涨将持续下去，他们就会要求更高的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> And the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>市场预计美联储年底加息的可能性仅为3%。这低于一个月前10%的加息可能性。投资者知道加息是央行对抗通胀上升的最佳工具，当美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上发表讲话时，他们希望听到更多有关该主题的信息。</blockquote></p><p> \"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦金融公司首席执行官兰迪·沃伦表示：“债券市场仍然不担心通胀。它正在购买美联储正在出售的东西。”</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，美联储可能会等待太久才对通胀做出反应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀是暂时的还是更具结构性的？”PineBridge Investments信贷和固定收益全球主管Steven Oh问道。“美联储将来会失去对它的控制，犯政策错误，没有能力控制它吗？”</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储和债券市场对通胀的看法是错误的，那么央行可能不得不以比其和投资者希望的更快的速度结束疫情刺激措施。这将意味着取消大规模资产购买并尽早加息。</blockquote></p><p> Oh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.</p><p><blockquote>哦，我不认为会是这样。许多其他人也同意。他们认为，投资者必须牢记经济复苏的速度有多快。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就业市场和供应链出现混乱也就不足为奇了。恢复到2019年底和2020年初新冠肺炎之前的水平需要时间。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"</p><p><blockquote>财富管理公司Clarus Group的负责人布莱恩·科斯洛(Bryan Koslow)表示：“关于通货膨胀有很多问题，因为你在日常生活中都会看到它。”“但我们可能已经看到了峰值，尤其是在工资增长方面。”</blockquote></p><p> Even if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.</p><p><blockquote>即使事实证明这是真的，投资者和消费者如此关注价格这一事实也值得注意。十多年来，通货膨胀基本上不是问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.</p><p><blockquote>SkyBridge Capital联席首席投资官兼高级投资组合经理Troy Gayeski表示：“美联储必须认真对待通胀担忧。”他补充说，他认为通胀压力有20%的可能性变得更加持久，而不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> \"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.</p><p><blockquote>“自2008年以来，有意义的通胀风险一直不存在。直到现在，”Gayeski说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's getting more expensive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么越来越贵</b></blockquote></p><p> Food and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.</p><p><blockquote>食物和油漆并不是唯一变得更贵的东西。正如CNN商业频道的莫伊拉·里特(Moira Ritter)指出的那样，最近几乎所有东西的价格都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Lumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.</p><p><blockquote>木材价格飙升。房地产市场继续繁荣。这导致沙发和其他家居用品的价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Used cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>二手车也贵得多。这归因于人们重返工作岗位，以及由于芯片供应短缺损害了新车的生产，经销商处新车短缺。</blockquote></p><p> People are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.</p><p><blockquote>人们也越来越多地旅行。由于预期一些人所说的“炙手可热的疫苗之夏”，机票价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Up next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday: </b>US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H &amp; R Block (HRB)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b>美国零售额；美国生产者价格指数；Oracle(ORCL)和H&amp;R Block(HRB)的收益</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday: </b>Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b>美联储利率决定；美国新屋开工和建筑许可；EIA原油库存；Lennar(LEN)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Thursday: </b>US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b>美国初请失业金人数；克罗格(KR)和Adobe(ADBE)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?<blockquote>投资者和美联储并没有对通胀感到恐慌。他们应该吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?<blockquote>投资者和美联储并没有对通胀感到恐慌。他们应该吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 17:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）在通货膨胀方面，大街和华尔街之间存在巨大的脱节。总得有所让步。</blockquote></p><p> The US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府上周报告称，5月份不包括食品和能源的消费者价格涨幅为1992年以来最快。宣伟(SHW)正在提高油漆价格，这是众多应对大宗商品成本上涨的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Food prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).</p><p><blockquote>食品价格也在飙升。Chipotle(CMG)刚刚提高了价格。金宝汤（CPB）也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> And the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave &amp; Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅和街机连锁店Dave&amp;Buster's(PLAY)的首席财务官在最近与分析师举行的财报看涨期权上表示，由于鸡肉、牛肉和乳制品价格上涨，他预计2021年食品成本将上涨6%至8%。</blockquote></p><p> Wages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.</p><p><blockquote>工资也在上涨，尤其是随着经济重新开放而重返工作岗位的零售、休闲和酒店行业的工人。这增加了通胀压力，因为一些公司会选择提高价格以维持利润。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages aren't helping.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺无济于事。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.</p><p><blockquote>在线宠物零售商Chewy(CHWY)的首席执行官在最新财报发布后致股东的一封信中写道，该公司“面临着与全国许多公司类似的劳动力短缺问题”。因此，Chewy继续“投资于更高的工资和福利”，以填补职位空缺。</blockquote></p><p> Yet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者和美联储对通胀上升不屑一顾，认为这是“暂时的”。长期债券收益率正在下降，这通常不会在通胀加剧时发生。如果债券投资者认为价格上涨将持续下去，他们就会要求更高的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> And the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>市场预计美联储年底加息的可能性仅为3%。这低于一个月前10%的加息可能性。投资者知道加息是央行对抗通胀上升的最佳工具，当美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上发表讲话时，他们希望听到更多有关该主题的信息。</blockquote></p><p> \"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦金融公司首席执行官兰迪·沃伦表示：“债券市场仍然不担心通胀。它正在购买美联储正在出售的东西。”</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，美联储可能会等待太久才对通胀做出反应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀是暂时的还是更具结构性的？”PineBridge Investments信贷和固定收益全球主管Steven Oh问道。“美联储将来会失去对它的控制，犯政策错误，没有能力控制它吗？”</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储和债券市场对通胀的看法是错误的，那么央行可能不得不以比其和投资者希望的更快的速度结束疫情刺激措施。这将意味着取消大规模资产购买并尽早加息。</blockquote></p><p> Oh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.</p><p><blockquote>哦，我不认为会是这样。许多其他人也同意。他们认为，投资者必须牢记经济复苏的速度有多快。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就业市场和供应链出现混乱也就不足为奇了。恢复到2019年底和2020年初新冠肺炎之前的水平需要时间。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"</p><p><blockquote>财富管理公司Clarus Group的负责人布莱恩·科斯洛(Bryan Koslow)表示：“关于通货膨胀有很多问题，因为你在日常生活中都会看到它。”“但我们可能已经看到了峰值，尤其是在工资增长方面。”</blockquote></p><p> Even if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.</p><p><blockquote>即使事实证明这是真的，投资者和消费者如此关注价格这一事实也值得注意。十多年来，通货膨胀基本上不是问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.</p><p><blockquote>SkyBridge Capital联席首席投资官兼高级投资组合经理Troy Gayeski表示：“美联储必须认真对待通胀担忧。”他补充说，他认为通胀压力有20%的可能性变得更加持久，而不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> \"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.</p><p><blockquote>“自2008年以来，有意义的通胀风险一直不存在。直到现在，”Gayeski说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's getting more expensive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么越来越贵</b></blockquote></p><p> Food and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.</p><p><blockquote>食物和油漆并不是唯一变得更贵的东西。正如CNN商业频道的莫伊拉·里特(Moira Ritter)指出的那样，最近几乎所有东西的价格都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Lumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.</p><p><blockquote>木材价格飙升。房地产市场继续繁荣。这导致沙发和其他家居用品的价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Used cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>二手车也贵得多。这归因于人们重返工作岗位，以及由于芯片供应短缺损害了新车的生产，经销商处新车短缺。</blockquote></p><p> People are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.</p><p><blockquote>人们也越来越多地旅行。由于预期一些人所说的“炙手可热的疫苗之夏”，机票价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Up next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday: </b>US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H &amp; R Block (HRB)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b>美国零售额；美国生产者价格指数；Oracle(ORCL)和H&amp;R Block(HRB)的收益</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday: </b>Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b>美联储利率决定；美国新屋开工和建筑许可；EIA原油库存；Lennar(LEN)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Thursday: </b>US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b>美国初请失业金人数；克罗格(KR)和Adobe(ADBE)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145996523","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.\nThe US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.\nFood prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).\nAnd the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave & Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.\nWages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.\nLabor shortages aren't helping.\nThe CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.\nYet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.\nAnd the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.\n\"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.\nThe problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.\n\"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"\nIf the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.\nOh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.\nFor that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.\n\"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"\nEven if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.\n\"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.\n\"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.\nWhat's getting more expensive\nFood and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.\nLumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.\nUsed cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.\nPeople are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.\nUp next\nTuesday: US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H & R Block (HRB)\nWednesday: Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)\nThursday: US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187836863,"gmtCreate":1623748801552,"gmtModify":1631888757195,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIOT\">$Viomi Technology Co.(VIOT)$</a>is it a buy now?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIOT\">$Viomi Technology Co.(VIOT)$</a>is it a buy now?","text":"$Viomi Technology Co.(VIOT)$is it a buy now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187836863","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182411019,"gmtCreate":1623597162431,"gmtModify":1631890101952,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZEPP\">$Zepp Health Corporation(ZEPP)$</a>looks like a promising stock","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZEPP\">$Zepp Health Corporation(ZEPP)$</a>looks like a promising stock","text":"$Zepp Health Corporation(ZEPP)$looks like a promising stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182411019","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":609970644,"gmtCreate":1638235034548,"gmtModify":1638235034733,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$NVDA 20211203 320.0 CALL(NVDA)$</a>Ride it to 400","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$NVDA 20211203 320.0 CALL(NVDA)$</a>Ride it to 400","text":"$NVDA 20211203 320.0 CALL(NVDA)$Ride it to 400","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/096c7d1e4ffc980a0e486e1a2c7cd2c0","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609970644","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875244056,"gmtCreate":1637662620644,"gmtModify":1637662620774,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks like going the way of paypal","listText":"Looks like going the way of paypal","text":"Looks like going the way of paypal","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875244056","repostId":"1116539537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358718130,"gmtCreate":1616729956920,"gmtModify":1631888608905,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IRBT\">$iRobot(IRBT)$</a>sharp fall","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IRBT\">$iRobot(IRBT)$</a>sharp fall","text":"$iRobot(IRBT)$sharp fall","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc53713c97dc7b7bafcc229d26a8853","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358718130","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"97234586054586","authorId":"97234586054586","name":"病书生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"97234586054586","idStr":"97234586054586"},"content":"成本有点高啊","text":"成本有点高啊","html":"成本有点高啊"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":601696434,"gmtCreate":1638519107175,"gmtModify":1638519107253,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It is the next tesla. 1 trllion here we go.&nbsp;","listText":"It is the next tesla. 1 trllion here we go.&nbsp;","text":"It is the next tesla. 1 trllion here we go.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601696434","repostId":"1100339971","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100339971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638516924,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100339971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Investors Need to Stay Far Away From Rivian (for Now)<blockquote>为什么投资者需要远离Rivian（目前）</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100339971","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Investors are loving this electric vehicle start-up. But the numbers (or lack thereof) don't add up.","content":"<p>One of the hottest companies in the investing universe right now is&nbsp;<b>Rivian</b>. The electric vehicle start-up just went public at a market cap north of $100 billion, which is astounding considering the fact it has never generated any sales. With the rise of&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>, the market leader in&nbsp;electric vehicles, to a market cap north of $1 trillion recently, the excitement around this new industry has reached a fever pitch.</p><p><blockquote>目前投资界最热门的公司之一是<b>Rivian</b>这家电动汽车初创公司刚刚上市，市值超过1000亿美元，考虑到它从未产生任何销售额，这令人震惊。随着<b>特斯拉</b>电动汽车市场的领导者，市值最近超过1万亿美元，围绕这个新行业的兴奋已经达到了白热化的程度。</blockquote></p><p> While Rivian's prospectus is exciting, and the company is going after a huge market opportunity, the price one must pay for all this potential is simply too much to ask. Here are a few reasons why investors need to stay far away from Rivian stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Rivian的招股说明书令人兴奋，而且该公司正在寻求巨大的市场机会，但为所有这些潜力所付出的代价实在是太高了。以下是投资者目前需要远离Rivian股票的一些原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af764bd447f10cf89d9c92eb80ad9d14\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Rivian.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：Rivian。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The company is pre-revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司是预营收</b></blockquote></p><p> At a most basic level, Rivian is not a suitable company to invest in at a market cap of $106 billion because it has never generated any revenue, let alone profits or free cash flow. According to its S-1, which is the SEC filing companies are required to put out before going through an initial public offering (IPO), Rivian produced 12 vehicles in the third quarter, all of which were sold to employees.</p><p><blockquote>从最基本的层面来看，Rivian并不是一家市值1060亿美元的合适投资公司，因为它从未产生过任何收入，更不用说利润或自由现金流了。根据S-1（公司在进行首次公开募股(IPO)之前必须向SEC提交的文件），Rivian第三季度生产了12辆汽车，全部出售给员工。</blockquote></p><p> By the end of 2021, it expects to produce 1,200 R1Ts (an electric truck), and by the end of 2023, it expects to produce 55,400 total vehicles, which would clear out its current backlog of orders. If Rivian sells these vehicles at an average price of $67,500, the standard cost on its website for the R1T right now, it will generate around $3.7 billion in revenue from now until the end of 2023. With $1.7 billion in negative free cash flow in the first six months of this year, this hypothetical $3.7 billion in revenue would not even come close to covering Rivian's current expense base (which will likely grow as it starts manufacturing at scale). It will likely take three to five years, if not longer, for Rivian to start generating positive free cash flow for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>到2021年底，预计将生产1,200辆R1T（电动卡车），到2023年底，预计将生产55,400辆汽车，这将清除目前积压的订单。如果Rivian以67,500美元的平均价格（其网站上目前R1T的标准成本）出售这些车辆，那么从现在到2023年底，它将产生约37亿美元的收入。由于今年前六个月自由现金流为负17亿美元，这一假设的37亿美元收入甚至无法覆盖Rivian当前的费用基础（随着其开始大规模生产，费用基础可能会增长）。Rivian可能需要三到五年甚至更长时间才能开始为股东产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manufacturing cars is a tough business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>制造汽车是一项艰难的事业</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's current installed base is for 65,000 R1Ts and 85,000 RCVs (its commercial van), giving it the capacity to generate 150,000 cars a year. Assuming a ballpark average selling price of $67,500 for all these vehicles, that would be over $10 billion in annual revenue for Rivian once it reaches scale. One might assume at this revenue and manufacturing level Rivian would be profitable. But that is misguided thinking.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian目前的安装基础是65,000辆R1T和85,000辆RCV（其商用货车），使其每年能够生产150,000辆汽车。假设所有这些车辆的平均售价约为67,500美元，一旦Rivian达到规模，其年收入将超过100亿美元。人们可能会认为，在这种收入和制造水平下，Rivian将会盈利。但这是被误导的想法。</blockquote></p><p> If we look at Tesla, its closest competitor that is a pure-play electric vehicle manufacturer, it only got close to free cash flow breakeven in 2018 when it delivered 245,000 vehicles. Manufacturing cars is expensive, and investors in Rivian shouldn't expect profit margins to be very high, even once Rivian reaches any sort of maturity a decade from now. Rivian needs to start ramping up its vehicle deliveries, and fast, in order to get anywhere close to fulfilling a market cap of $106 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看它最接近的竞争对手特斯拉，一家纯电动汽车制造商，它在2018年交付了245,000辆汽车时才接近自由现金流盈亏平衡。制造汽车的成本很高，Rivian的投资者不应该指望利润率会很高，即使十年后Rivian达到某种程度的成熟度。Rivian需要开始快速增加汽车交付量，以便接近1060亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Every automaker is all-in on electric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每个汽车制造商都全力投入电动汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> One reason Tesla was able to grow unabated for so long is that no other company was taking electric vehicles seriously. This is not the market environment we are currently in. The big car manufacturers along with Tesla and other pure-play electric vehicle start-ups are all investing tens of billions to compete over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉能够长期有增无减的增长原因之一是没有其他公司认真对待电动汽车。这不是我们目前所处的市场环境。大型汽车制造商以及特斯拉和其他纯电动汽车初创企业都在投资数百亿美元来参与未来十年的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford</b>&nbsp;has committed $11.4 billion to invest in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing in the U.S.&nbsp;<b>Toyota</b>&nbsp;has committed $13.5 billion to battery development and production alone. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Over the next five years, competition for electric vehicles will be fierce. Starting at a standstill, Rivian has a tough hill to climb if it wants to gain significant market share in the electric vehicle market.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特</b>已承诺投资114亿美元在美国投资电池和电动汽车制造。<b>丰田</b>仅电池开发和生产就投入了135亿美元。而这只是冰山一角。未来五年，电动汽车的竞争将非常激烈。从停滞开始，Rivian如果想在电动汽车市场获得可观的市场份额，就有一座艰难的山要爬。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't forget about the company</b></p><p><blockquote><b>别忘了公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's stock would likely be overvalued even if it got a 95% haircut, but the company can still go on your watch list if you are&nbsp;bullish on the electric vehicle industry. With $17 billion in cash on its balance sheet after the IPO, a 100,000 fleet order for electric delivery vans going to&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>, and a sleek-looking truck, Rivian has a chance to grow quickly over the next five years. But paying for the stock at this valuation for the chance that happens when the company is pre-revenue is not a smart bet for investors to make.</p><p><blockquote>即使Rivian的股价下跌95%，其股价也可能被高估，但如果您看好电动汽车行业，该公司仍然可以列入您的观察名单。IPO后，其资产负债表上有170亿美元现金，10万辆电动送货车车队订单将<b>亚马逊</b>以及外观时尚的卡车，Rivian有机会在未来五年内快速增长。但对于投资者来说，以这样的估值购买股票以换取公司盈利前发生的机会并不是一个明智的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Investors Need to Stay Far Away From Rivian (for Now)<blockquote>为什么投资者需要远离Rivian（目前）</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Investors Need to Stay Far Away From Rivian (for Now)<blockquote>为什么投资者需要远离Rivian（目前）</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-03 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the hottest companies in the investing universe right now is&nbsp;<b>Rivian</b>. The electric vehicle start-up just went public at a market cap north of $100 billion, which is astounding considering the fact it has never generated any sales. With the rise of&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>, the market leader in&nbsp;electric vehicles, to a market cap north of $1 trillion recently, the excitement around this new industry has reached a fever pitch.</p><p><blockquote>目前投资界最热门的公司之一是<b>Rivian</b>这家电动汽车初创公司刚刚上市，市值超过1000亿美元，考虑到它从未产生任何销售额，这令人震惊。随着<b>特斯拉</b>电动汽车市场的领导者，市值最近超过1万亿美元，围绕这个新行业的兴奋已经达到了白热化的程度。</blockquote></p><p> While Rivian's prospectus is exciting, and the company is going after a huge market opportunity, the price one must pay for all this potential is simply too much to ask. Here are a few reasons why investors need to stay far away from Rivian stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Rivian的招股说明书令人兴奋，而且该公司正在寻求巨大的市场机会，但为所有这些潜力所付出的代价实在是太高了。以下是投资者目前需要远离Rivian股票的一些原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af764bd447f10cf89d9c92eb80ad9d14\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Rivian.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：Rivian。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The company is pre-revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司是预营收</b></blockquote></p><p> At a most basic level, Rivian is not a suitable company to invest in at a market cap of $106 billion because it has never generated any revenue, let alone profits or free cash flow. According to its S-1, which is the SEC filing companies are required to put out before going through an initial public offering (IPO), Rivian produced 12 vehicles in the third quarter, all of which were sold to employees.</p><p><blockquote>从最基本的层面来看，Rivian并不是一家市值1060亿美元的合适投资公司，因为它从未产生过任何收入，更不用说利润或自由现金流了。根据S-1（公司在进行首次公开募股(IPO)之前必须向SEC提交的文件），Rivian第三季度生产了12辆汽车，全部出售给员工。</blockquote></p><p> By the end of 2021, it expects to produce 1,200 R1Ts (an electric truck), and by the end of 2023, it expects to produce 55,400 total vehicles, which would clear out its current backlog of orders. If Rivian sells these vehicles at an average price of $67,500, the standard cost on its website for the R1T right now, it will generate around $3.7 billion in revenue from now until the end of 2023. With $1.7 billion in negative free cash flow in the first six months of this year, this hypothetical $3.7 billion in revenue would not even come close to covering Rivian's current expense base (which will likely grow as it starts manufacturing at scale). It will likely take three to five years, if not longer, for Rivian to start generating positive free cash flow for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>到2021年底，预计将生产1,200辆R1T（电动卡车），到2023年底，预计将生产55,400辆汽车，这将清除目前积压的订单。如果Rivian以67,500美元的平均价格（其网站上目前R1T的标准成本）出售这些车辆，那么从现在到2023年底，它将产生约37亿美元的收入。由于今年前六个月自由现金流为负17亿美元，这一假设的37亿美元收入甚至无法覆盖Rivian当前的费用基础（随着其开始大规模生产，费用基础可能会增长）。Rivian可能需要三到五年甚至更长时间才能开始为股东产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manufacturing cars is a tough business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>制造汽车是一项艰难的事业</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's current installed base is for 65,000 R1Ts and 85,000 RCVs (its commercial van), giving it the capacity to generate 150,000 cars a year. Assuming a ballpark average selling price of $67,500 for all these vehicles, that would be over $10 billion in annual revenue for Rivian once it reaches scale. One might assume at this revenue and manufacturing level Rivian would be profitable. But that is misguided thinking.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian目前的安装基础是65,000辆R1T和85,000辆RCV（其商用货车），使其每年能够生产150,000辆汽车。假设所有这些车辆的平均售价约为67,500美元，一旦Rivian达到规模，其年收入将超过100亿美元。人们可能会认为，在这种收入和制造水平下，Rivian将会盈利。但这是被误导的想法。</blockquote></p><p> If we look at Tesla, its closest competitor that is a pure-play electric vehicle manufacturer, it only got close to free cash flow breakeven in 2018 when it delivered 245,000 vehicles. Manufacturing cars is expensive, and investors in Rivian shouldn't expect profit margins to be very high, even once Rivian reaches any sort of maturity a decade from now. Rivian needs to start ramping up its vehicle deliveries, and fast, in order to get anywhere close to fulfilling a market cap of $106 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看它最接近的竞争对手特斯拉，一家纯电动汽车制造商，它在2018年交付了245,000辆汽车时才接近自由现金流盈亏平衡。制造汽车的成本很高，Rivian的投资者不应该指望利润率会很高，即使十年后Rivian达到某种程度的成熟度。Rivian需要开始快速增加汽车交付量，以便接近1060亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Every automaker is all-in on electric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每个汽车制造商都全力投入电动汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> One reason Tesla was able to grow unabated for so long is that no other company was taking electric vehicles seriously. This is not the market environment we are currently in. The big car manufacturers along with Tesla and other pure-play electric vehicle start-ups are all investing tens of billions to compete over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉能够长期有增无减的增长原因之一是没有其他公司认真对待电动汽车。这不是我们目前所处的市场环境。大型汽车制造商以及特斯拉和其他纯电动汽车初创企业都在投资数百亿美元来参与未来十年的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford</b>&nbsp;has committed $11.4 billion to invest in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing in the U.S.&nbsp;<b>Toyota</b>&nbsp;has committed $13.5 billion to battery development and production alone. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Over the next five years, competition for electric vehicles will be fierce. Starting at a standstill, Rivian has a tough hill to climb if it wants to gain significant market share in the electric vehicle market.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特</b>已承诺投资114亿美元在美国投资电池和电动汽车制造。<b>丰田</b>仅电池开发和生产就投入了135亿美元。而这只是冰山一角。未来五年，电动汽车的竞争将非常激烈。从停滞开始，Rivian如果想在电动汽车市场获得可观的市场份额，就有一座艰难的山要爬。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't forget about the company</b></p><p><blockquote><b>别忘了公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's stock would likely be overvalued even if it got a 95% haircut, but the company can still go on your watch list if you are&nbsp;bullish on the electric vehicle industry. With $17 billion in cash on its balance sheet after the IPO, a 100,000 fleet order for electric delivery vans going to&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>, and a sleek-looking truck, Rivian has a chance to grow quickly over the next five years. But paying for the stock at this valuation for the chance that happens when the company is pre-revenue is not a smart bet for investors to make.</p><p><blockquote>即使Rivian的股价下跌95%，其股价也可能被高估，但如果您看好电动汽车行业，该公司仍然可以列入您的观察名单。IPO后，其资产负债表上有170亿美元现金，10万辆电动送货车车队订单将<b>亚马逊</b>以及外观时尚的卡车，Rivian有机会在未来五年内快速增长。但对于投资者来说，以这样的估值购买股票以换取公司盈利前发生的机会并不是一个明智的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/02/why-investors-need-to-stay-far-away-from-rivian/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/02/why-investors-need-to-stay-far-away-from-rivian/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100339971","content_text":"One of the hottest companies in the investing universe right now is Rivian. The electric vehicle start-up just went public at a market cap north of $100 billion, which is astounding considering the fact it has never generated any sales. With the rise of Tesla, the market leader in electric vehicles, to a market cap north of $1 trillion recently, the excitement around this new industry has reached a fever pitch.\nWhile Rivian's prospectus is exciting, and the company is going after a huge market opportunity, the price one must pay for all this potential is simply too much to ask. Here are a few reasons why investors need to stay far away from Rivian stock right now.\nImage source: Rivian.\nThe company is pre-revenue\nAt a most basic level, Rivian is not a suitable company to invest in at a market cap of $106 billion because it has never generated any revenue, let alone profits or free cash flow. According to its S-1, which is the SEC filing companies are required to put out before going through an initial public offering (IPO), Rivian produced 12 vehicles in the third quarter, all of which were sold to employees.\nBy the end of 2021, it expects to produce 1,200 R1Ts (an electric truck), and by the end of 2023, it expects to produce 55,400 total vehicles, which would clear out its current backlog of orders. If Rivian sells these vehicles at an average price of $67,500, the standard cost on its website for the R1T right now, it will generate around $3.7 billion in revenue from now until the end of 2023. With $1.7 billion in negative free cash flow in the first six months of this year, this hypothetical $3.7 billion in revenue would not even come close to covering Rivian's current expense base (which will likely grow as it starts manufacturing at scale). It will likely take three to five years, if not longer, for Rivian to start generating positive free cash flow for shareholders.\nManufacturing cars is a tough business\nRivian's current installed base is for 65,000 R1Ts and 85,000 RCVs (its commercial van), giving it the capacity to generate 150,000 cars a year. Assuming a ballpark average selling price of $67,500 for all these vehicles, that would be over $10 billion in annual revenue for Rivian once it reaches scale. One might assume at this revenue and manufacturing level Rivian would be profitable. But that is misguided thinking.\nIf we look at Tesla, its closest competitor that is a pure-play electric vehicle manufacturer, it only got close to free cash flow breakeven in 2018 when it delivered 245,000 vehicles. Manufacturing cars is expensive, and investors in Rivian shouldn't expect profit margins to be very high, even once Rivian reaches any sort of maturity a decade from now. Rivian needs to start ramping up its vehicle deliveries, and fast, in order to get anywhere close to fulfilling a market cap of $106 billion.\nEvery automaker is all-in on electric\nOne reason Tesla was able to grow unabated for so long is that no other company was taking electric vehicles seriously. This is not the market environment we are currently in. The big car manufacturers along with Tesla and other pure-play electric vehicle start-ups are all investing tens of billions to compete over the next decade.\nFord has committed $11.4 billion to invest in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing in the U.S. Toyota has committed $13.5 billion to battery development and production alone. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Over the next five years, competition for electric vehicles will be fierce. Starting at a standstill, Rivian has a tough hill to climb if it wants to gain significant market share in the electric vehicle market.\nDon't forget about the company\nRivian's stock would likely be overvalued even if it got a 95% haircut, but the company can still go on your watch list if you are bullish on the electric vehicle industry. With $17 billion in cash on its balance sheet after the IPO, a 100,000 fleet order for electric delivery vans going to Amazon, and a sleek-looking truck, Rivian has a chance to grow quickly over the next five years. But paying for the stock at this valuation for the chance that happens when the company is pre-revenue is not a smart bet for investors to make.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874673879,"gmtCreate":1637771427694,"gmtModify":1637771427694,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$AAPL 20211126 160.0 CALL(AAPL)$</a>AAPL never disappoints","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$AAPL 20211126 160.0 CALL(AAPL)$</a>AAPL never disappoints","text":"$AAPL 20211126 160.0 CALL(AAPL)$AAPL never disappoints","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c7b3a3f1f2cc13cddb16e601d497db","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874673879","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874622233,"gmtCreate":1637768387761,"gmtModify":1637768387865,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$FB 20211126 340.0 CALL(FB)$</a>always believe in FAANG","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$FB 20211126 340.0 CALL(FB)$</a>always believe in FAANG","text":"$FB 20211126 340.0 CALL(FB)$always believe in FAANG","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551c2adfb48c804f1a1e302928283632","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874622233","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}