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05-02 22:25

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

英伟达供应商SK海力士表示2025年的高带宽内存芯片几乎售罄

04-30 15:02

嗷。小老虎，嘿嘿

04-30 13:29

700 800的股价对于英伟达来说简直是太便宜了。

Nvidia's Reversion Angle Became Steeper

04-29

财富效应

Morgan Stanley Is Doubling Down on Nvidia Stock

04-26

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

谷歌高管解读Q1财报：AI会为云业务带来拐点

04-26

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

同样“豪赌”AI，为何Meta大跌，但微软、谷歌大涨？

04-26

公司预言“科技行业正处于 Al 带来的巨大平台转变之中。”

谷歌史上首次分红，Q1营收、广告、云收入均提速，盘后涨15%至新高

04-22

回调就是买入的好机会

大摩空头罕见为美股撑腰！科技巨头业绩将成“救世主”？

04-20

再跌可就真出事了。

@主神级交易员鄧文:$英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达这760750差不多就是底部了，要是PCE证强，整个整个股市再跌，波动太大、很容易冲击美联储的路径，pass，从这个结果出发，PCE证伪比证强的概率大很多，如何真的错误、那么意外着后面就是鱼更大、证强会把所有的指标像弹簧一样压到极致、出现最极致的单边call点，而且还是大范围多板块的单边call点，出现这种情况、市场上的资金也填不了这个call点、即使美联储马上100%停止缩表，这个点会把货币市场和避险资金都吸干，财政赤字扩大或美联储再QE才能压住这个点，这种情况pass，

04-20

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 凉凉

04-19

确实，820是真便宜，买到就是赚到

Nvidia's Dominance in Computing Era Underrated by Investors, Says Analyst

04-19

英伟达订单持续增加，供不应求

传微软计划在年底前囤积180万个AI芯片

04-19

好文章

但斌：怎样才能赚到现象级的钱？英伟达的调整只是短期现象

04-19

我预测能上2200

机构预测：牛市情景下，英伟达股价明年有望升破1500美元！

04-13

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@饭团比比叨:凭什么值2万亿？英伟达不止AI芯片，要做就做AI时代的“微软”

04-10

比如说英伟达去年四季度赚了120亿美金，简单乘个4，市场认为就已经达到了一年能挣500亿美金的能力。500亿美金对于成长股特别是AI成长股，乘以40倍市盈率就是2万美金，这个估值就给出来了。所

英伟达高利润增长速度还能保持多久？刘煜辉：比市场能想象的还要久

04-10

事实上，近现代历史上每一次技术革命都伴随着巨大的金融泡沫，工业革命期间有运河热，蒸汽和铁路时代有铁路热，都是在这些泡沫及其引起的衰退过后，才迎来了真正的大繁荣。

291亿投资拉动5万亿财富增长，大模型的泡沫来了？

04-08

半导体整体行业已经回暖，美光海力士24年产能已经预定完成

押注AI的第二波大赢家

04-07

公司盈利也有相当大的增长空间。华尔街分析师目前预计，今年标普500指数成份股公司的盈利将增长11%，2023年这一数字仅为2%。分析师普遍预计，明年标普500指数成份股公司的盈利将增长13%，这不是熊市的构成要素。

@巴伦周刊:哪怕不降息，美股也能继续走牛 | 巴伦封面

04-05

在2021年下半年，纳斯达克的宽度开始下降，尽管该指数继续上涨；这种背离预示着2022年的熊市

What Does the Breadth of the Nasdaq's Bull Run Tell Us? To Be Wary -- Journal Report

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21:49","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"英伟达供应商SK海力士表示2025年的高带宽内存芯片几乎售罄","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2432010196","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"北京时间2日晚，英伟达供应商SK海力士（SK Hynix）周四表示，其高带宽内存（HBM）芯片在2025年几乎已经售罄，因为人工智能的繁荣推动了对这些芯片的需求。\n\n　　这家韩国存储芯片制造商表示，其HBM芯片在2024年已完全售罄。\n　　该公司表示，将从今年第三季度开始量产最新一代的HBM芯片，即12层HBM3E。\n　　SK海力士股价周四下跌0.4%。\n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你>>\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：张俊 SF065","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>　　北京时间2日晚，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>供应商SK海力士（SK Hynix）周四表示，其高带宽内存（HBM）芯片在2025年几乎已经售罄，因为人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>的繁荣推动了对这些芯片的需求。</p>\n<div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/transform/60/w550h310/20240502/fb23-08eeaf35564a5e4a3d3178d2faaafb72.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　这家韩国存储芯片制造商表示，其HBM芯片在2024年已完全售罄。</p>\n<p>　　该公司表示，将从今年第三季度开始量产最新一代的HBM芯片，即12层HBM3E。</p>\n<p>　　SK海力士股价周四下跌0.4%。</p>\n<div>\n<span>股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你&gt;&gt;</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：张俊 SF065</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达供应商SK海力士表示2025年的高带宽内存芯片几乎售罄</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达供应商SK海力士表示2025年的高带宽内存芯片几乎售罄\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-02 21:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-05-02/doc-inatwaav7243646.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京时间2日晚，英伟达供应商SK海力士（SK Hynix）周四表示，其高带宽内存（HBM）芯片在2025年几乎已经售罄，因为人工智能的繁荣推动了对这些芯片的需求。\n\n　　这家韩国存储芯片制造商表示，其HBM芯片在2024年已完全售罄。\n　　该公司表示，将从今年第三季度开始量产最新一代的HBM芯片，即12层HBM3E。\n　　SK海力士股价周四下跌0.4%。\n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-05-02/doc-inatwaav7243646.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0494093205.USD":"贝莱德ESG灵活多元资产A2 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Acc","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-05-02/doc-inatwaav7243646.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2432010196","content_text":"北京时间2日晚，英伟达供应商SK海力士（SK Hynix）周四表示，其高带宽内存（HBM）芯片在2025年几乎已经售罄，因为人工智能的繁荣推动了对这些芯片的需求。\n\n　　这家韩国存储芯片制造商表示，其HBM芯片在2024年已完全售罄。\n　　该公司表示，将从今年第三季度开始量产最新一代的HBM芯片，即12层HBM3E。\n　　SK海力士股价周四下跌0.4%。\n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你>>\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：张俊 SF065","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300869559676992,"gmtCreate":1714460563755,"gmtModify":1714460568307,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"嗷。小老虎，嘿嘿","listText":"嗷。小老虎，嘿嘿","text":"嗷。小老虎，嘿嘿","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a4556a90b9a583ee3e6857f4211ebf6"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300869559676992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300846139490616,"gmtCreate":1714454986411,"gmtModify":1714454988332,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"700 800的股价对于英伟达来说简直是太便宜了。","listText":"700 800的股价对于英伟达来说简直是太便宜了。","text":"700 800的股价对于英伟达来说简直是太便宜了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300846139490616","repostId":"2431899995","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2431899995","pubTimestamp":1714460400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2431899995?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-30 15:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Reversion Angle Became Steeper","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2431899995","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Nvidia Corporation has sharpened the growth reversion angle that I mentioned last time significantly.The market demand profile for AI accelerators is expected to be solid, which could benefit Nvidia’s","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia Corporation has sharpened the growth reversion angle that I mentioned last time significantly.</p></li><li><p>The market demand profile for AI accelerators is expected to be solid, which could benefit Nvidia’s upcoming leading-edge Blackwell architecture.</p></li><li><p>The valuation of Nvidia suggests up to 15% upside potential, leaving behind all the concerns discussed in the article.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" alt=\"BING-JHEN HONG\" title=\"BING-JHEN HONG\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>BING-JHEN HONG</span></p><p>I am still bullish on NVDA, and in my view, its share price (&#34;SP&#34;) could appreciate further by up to 15%, especially with the launch of the new generation Blackwell architecture. In this piece, I will go through the growth potential in data centers and gaming segments and try to present that Nvidia is more than reasonably valued when looking at peers’ comparisons, historical levels, and earnings growth.</p><h2 id=\"id_4099191491\">Growth prospects in this valuation</h2><p>Nvidia has become the main beneficiary of the hype around artificial intelligence, as the stock has appreciated 418% since the launch of Cath GPT. Amid the rapid development of AI technology, which requires a whole new level of HPC for model training/inference, the company saw a significant uptick in demand for GPU-based solutions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d2b994873639b6392c06bde477cfbe6\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"490\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>In addition to the record financials, NVDA reached record valuations, which were unsustainable for those who called it a bubble. However, the stock took a setback recently with a number of concerns behind that, including the pushed back Fed’s interest rate cuts, the disappointing order book from ASML Holding (ASML), and the lack of indication from Super Micro Computer (SMCI) about its March quarter financials.</p><p>Looking at the valuation, we can notice that Nvidia is still trading at prominently higher levels compared to its peers&#39; EV/Sales and P/E ratios. However, in the case of NVDA stock, the direct comparison is not quite reasonable without considering the growth prospects.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/888456a02ab29871103f61ff6e11a32f\" alt=\"Ratio analysis (Seeking Alpha)\" title=\"Ratio analysis (Seeking Alpha)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"180\"/><span>Ratio analysis (Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p>The company is a clear leader in the GPU accelerator segment of the data center market, taking at least 80% up to 97% of it, according to some reports. And to gain some clues about the market dimension, let’s recall AMD’s projection of a $45 billion AI chip total addressable market, or TAM. Given the data center systems spending for 2023, it indicates up to 19% of the overall spending for the year. Moreover, AMD forecasted $400 billion TAM in 2027, citing a substantial increase in AI chip demand.</p><p>Given the above-mentioned numbers, a rough calculation points to around $40 billion in revenue from AI chips for Nvidia in 2023. And if we suppose that the company could retain at least 80% market share, it suggests up to $320 million in revenue by 2027, or 68% CAGR. Quite a bull case, isn’t it? Meanwhile, the analysts from BofA estimated TAM of about $180 billion, which implies a 38% CAGR.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/54d7fb81aeeff1dcfa21668d0dd45b15\" alt=\"Analyst’s growth expectations (Seeking Alpha)\" title=\"Analyst’s growth expectations (Seeking Alpha)\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"160\"/><span>Analyst’s growth expectations (Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p>The latter growth rate seems reasonable for me, and it’s broadly in line with the analyst’s growth expectations. Meanwhile, the competition is also evolving. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) started shipping its new Instinct MI300X GPU recently, which could challenge Nvidia’s H100 in memory-intensive tasks like large scene rendering and simulation, while the latter has been in production for a year and excels in AI-enhanced workflows and ray-traced rendering performance. Intel (INTC) in turn, is expected to launch Gaudi 3 latter this year with 50% faster performance than H100 when it comes to certain language models. However, Nvidia remains in a strong market position, as the H200 chip should basically hit the market any day now, while the next-generation Blackwell architecture is set to launch later in 2024.</p><p>Another issue that should be discussed is the recent supply constraints for the Hooper architecture, which remains in strong demand, according to the management’s comments. Although the supply picture is reportedly improving, it has become a major bottleneck for technology companies and AI researchers who have to compete for AI chips. As a result, some hyperscalers started to seek in-house AI-accelerator solutions. In particular, Alphabet (GOOGL) is known for its own Cloud TPU (tensor processing unit), Amazon (AMZN) produces Trainium chips, International Business Machines (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>) has AIU (artificial intelligence unit), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (META) utilizes MTIA (Meta Training and Inference Accelerator) internally, while Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) launched Maia AI accelerator last year.</p><p>Large cloud providers accounted for more than half of Nvidia’s data center revenue, and fears that they could start displacing Nvidia’s products for their in-house solutions are irrelevant in my view. Especially when there are a number of serverless GPU providers that could offer a distinct top-tier multi-GPU combination. And with the expected round of new GPU offerings hitting the market soon, I believe that hyperscalers will continue opting for Nvidia GPUs to retain dominance in the cloud market.</p><p>Concerning the management’s comments that the inference reached more than 40% of the company’s business, and given the price tag of Nvidia’s data center GPUs (Hopper is estimated to cost between $25-40k) and the estimated performance of the alternative GPUs, it undeniably raised concerns about the inference part of business. However, model training is a continuous process that should be run consistently due to the rising sophistication, upgrades, and bug elimination. So, the more data is generated through the inference, the more data should be processed by the model, and the more powerful GPU solutions are required.</p><p>Another strong growth factor for Nvidia is that it remains the leader in the gaming market. The company reported solid consumer demand for gaming hardware during the holiday season, during which I also became an RTX 40 series user, retiring my old GTX card. With the new DLSS technology, Nvidia could dominate the market further since even budget gamers can now opt for the RTX 4050 card and enjoy Cyberpunk 2077 on ultra-settings with enabled Ray Tracing. At the same time, the demand for senior 40 series cards could be encouraged by the rapid proliferation of VR devices and high-resolution monitors. The entry level for which could be the RTX 4070 SUPER, which was recently released, and is the best overall GPU right now. Moreover, the market for AIB discrete GPUs is improving following the COVID device refresh cycle. The latest surveys revealed that graphics card shipments increased by 32% YoY in Q4’23 to 9.5 million units, making an increase for three quarters in a row.</p><h2 id=\"id_1799736774\">Reversion angle</h2><p>Since my last article, the valuation of NVDA has normalized significantly. The forward P/E ratio declined from 59.2x to 35.1x, something that consensus previously expected to happen in Jan 2026 fiscal year. Last time, I mentioned that a 30% growth reversion angle could bring the valuation ratio down to the low 20x in FY2028. However, from the current point of view, this could happen much earlier, as the reversion angle sharpened significantly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dd1c5098d28d84d86fa95e87cd44f74e\" alt=\"Valuation of NVDA; P/E left; EPS right (prepared by author)\" title=\"Valuation of NVDA; P/E left; EPS right (prepared by author)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\"/><span>Valuation of NVDA; P/E left; EPS right (prepared by author)</span></p><p>The chart above clearly delineates this pattern, as the green line (earnings per share) has climbed significantly, thanks to the accelerated growth of data center segment performance. This brought the company’s P/E ratio down substantially, which is now below the violet line, which in turn indicates median 3Y P/E at 40.5x. The two dotted lines represent one standard deviation above and below the median, and we can see that NVDA’s valuation has been hanging around the lower line over the last 6 months. We can also notice that there is a prominent way for multiple expansion towards the median line, which implies a 15.5% upside to $1 013 share price.</p><p>Before transitioning to the comparison with peers, I would like to clear up the doubts that NVDA has climbed to unsustainable levels.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b4b8d129c78b1a55e239d6ecd5e4cf2\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Over the last three years, NVDA’s SP has appreciated by 485%, especially since the launch of ChatGPT. However, the earnings growth followed suit, up by 463% for the same period, thus justifying the company’s valuation from the EPS growth perspective.</p><p>Now, compared to AMD, Intel, Broadcom (AVGO) and Qualcomm (QCOM), let’s see how Nvidia is ranking while incorporating future growth expectations.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e17079ca097c546321df5552696e987\" alt=\"EPS growth and P/E scatter (prepared by author )\" title=\"EPS growth and P/E scatter (prepared by author )\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span>EPS growth and P/E scatter (prepared by author )</span></p><p>Clearly below the trend line, suggesting that the company’s 90%+ earnings growth estimate more than justifies the fwd P/E level of 35.1x. Moreover, it means that to bring the company’s valuation in line with the trend line, NVDA&#39;s stock price should appreciate at least to the $954 level, or by 8.8%.</p><p>Finally, I would like to discuss the chart blow in order not to find ourselves in an insidious growth trap. Nvidia reported 5x YoY growth in compute revenue and 3x YoY growth in networking sales, and overall, a 409% YoY surge in data center LOB revenue.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/61726597e0ceb745e1623efb304f433b\" alt=\"Data center revenue (company presentation)\" title=\"Data center revenue (company presentation)\" tg-width=\"441\" tg-height=\"293\"/><span>Data center revenue (company presentation)</span></p><p>Previously, we mentioned that the segment has the potential for up to 38% CAGR over the medium term. But investors may not like to see such low numbers. The recent growth pattern from the chart is due to the low base effect from a year ago, and my point is that market participants should be satisfied even with up to 10% sequential quarterly growth in the data center revenue. Certainly, at some point, NVDA will come down to such rates due to the accelerated growth last year. And given that Nvidia has a leading market share in AI accelerators, we can easily gain insight into the data center cycle because such advanced and expensive GPUs are not usually going through the channel but are sold directly to customers. This means one-for-one impact, bypassing channel inventory, and less volatile market trends compared to gaming, for example. As a result, it’s not likely that we could witness a significant decline in sales, in my view, and the concerns may be raised only in the case of two or three quarters of sequential decrease in data center sales.</p><h2 id=\"id_812255582\">Risk factors</h2><p>The tight monetary policy continues to put pressure on technology budgets. Nvidia is currently a leader in the AI chip market for data centers, while potential supply chain issues could result in stronger adoption of rivals’ products. Risks are also related to further tightening of the U.S. export restrictions in relation to China, which still remains a significant market for Nvidia. In addition, the company has risen strongly over the past year due to the optimistic forecast and positive trends in the AI market. If these trends are compromised by further deterioration of the global economic situation, investors may find themselves disappointed.</p><h2 id=\"id_421798531\">Investment conclusion</h2><p>I am keeping my bullish call on Nvidia since the company delivered much stronger earnings than my previous piece suggested. NVDA is trading at a more than reasonable valuation, as evidenced by peers’ comparisons and EPS growth, offering up to 15% additional upside at current levels.</p><p>I believe that Nvidia will remain in the leading positions for the AI-accelerator solutions, leaving behind all the concerns we mentioned above. At this point, the competition could offer alternatives to Hopper architecture, leaving Nvidia with the potential to skim the cream from the data center’s GPU market with the upcoming next-generation Blackwell chips. With this in mind, I believe that the company could maintain closer to mid-double-digit growth numbers in data center revenue, especially once hyperscalers and other cloud GPU providers start deploying leading-edge AI hardware to handle more demanding models.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Reversion Angle Became Steeper</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Reversion Angle Became Steeper\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-30 15:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4687220-nvidia-reversion-angle-became-steeper><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corporation has sharpened the growth reversion angle that I mentioned last time significantly.The market demand profile for AI accelerators is expected to be solid, which could benefit Nvidia’s...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4687220-nvidia-reversion-angle-became-steeper\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4514":"搜索引擎","LU1642822529.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4515":"5G概念","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4147":"半导体设备","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4576":"AR","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4687220-nvidia-reversion-angle-became-steeper","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2431899995","content_text":"Nvidia Corporation has sharpened the growth reversion angle that I mentioned last time significantly.The market demand profile for AI accelerators is expected to be solid, which could benefit Nvidia’s upcoming leading-edge Blackwell architecture.The valuation of Nvidia suggests up to 15% upside potential, leaving behind all the concerns discussed in the article.BING-JHEN HONGI am still bullish on NVDA, and in my view, its share price (\"SP\") could appreciate further by up to 15%, especially with the launch of the new generation Blackwell architecture. In this piece, I will go through the growth potential in data centers and gaming segments and try to present that Nvidia is more than reasonably valued when looking at peers’ comparisons, historical levels, and earnings growth.Growth prospects in this valuationNvidia has become the main beneficiary of the hype around artificial intelligence, as the stock has appreciated 418% since the launch of Cath GPT. Amid the rapid development of AI technology, which requires a whole new level of HPC for model training/inference, the company saw a significant uptick in demand for GPU-based solutions.Data by YChartsIn addition to the record financials, NVDA reached record valuations, which were unsustainable for those who called it a bubble. However, the stock took a setback recently with a number of concerns behind that, including the pushed back Fed’s interest rate cuts, the disappointing order book from ASML Holding (ASML), and the lack of indication from Super Micro Computer (SMCI) about its March quarter financials.Looking at the valuation, we can notice that Nvidia is still trading at prominently higher levels compared to its peers' EV/Sales and P/E ratios. However, in the case of NVDA stock, the direct comparison is not quite reasonable without considering the growth prospects.Ratio analysis (Seeking Alpha)The company is a clear leader in the GPU accelerator segment of the data center market, taking at least 80% up to 97% of it, according to some reports. And to gain some clues about the market dimension, let’s recall AMD’s projection of a $45 billion AI chip total addressable market, or TAM. Given the data center systems spending for 2023, it indicates up to 19% of the overall spending for the year. Moreover, AMD forecasted $400 billion TAM in 2027, citing a substantial increase in AI chip demand.Given the above-mentioned numbers, a rough calculation points to around $40 billion in revenue from AI chips for Nvidia in 2023. And if we suppose that the company could retain at least 80% market share, it suggests up to $320 million in revenue by 2027, or 68% CAGR. Quite a bull case, isn’t it? Meanwhile, the analysts from BofA estimated TAM of about $180 billion, which implies a 38% CAGR.Analyst’s growth expectations (Seeking Alpha)The latter growth rate seems reasonable for me, and it’s broadly in line with the analyst’s growth expectations. Meanwhile, the competition is also evolving. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) started shipping its new Instinct MI300X GPU recently, which could challenge Nvidia’s H100 in memory-intensive tasks like large scene rendering and simulation, while the latter has been in production for a year and excels in AI-enhanced workflows and ray-traced rendering performance. Intel (INTC) in turn, is expected to launch Gaudi 3 latter this year with 50% faster performance than H100 when it comes to certain language models. However, Nvidia remains in a strong market position, as the H200 chip should basically hit the market any day now, while the next-generation Blackwell architecture is set to launch later in 2024.Another issue that should be discussed is the recent supply constraints for the Hooper architecture, which remains in strong demand, according to the management’s comments. Although the supply picture is reportedly improving, it has become a major bottleneck for technology companies and AI researchers who have to compete for AI chips. As a result, some hyperscalers started to seek in-house AI-accelerator solutions. In particular, Alphabet (GOOGL) is known for its own Cloud TPU (tensor processing unit), Amazon (AMZN) produces Trainium chips, International Business Machines (IBM) has AIU (artificial intelligence unit), Meta Platforms (META) utilizes MTIA (Meta Training and Inference Accelerator) internally, while Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) launched Maia AI accelerator last year.Large cloud providers accounted for more than half of Nvidia’s data center revenue, and fears that they could start displacing Nvidia’s products for their in-house solutions are irrelevant in my view. Especially when there are a number of serverless GPU providers that could offer a distinct top-tier multi-GPU combination. And with the expected round of new GPU offerings hitting the market soon, I believe that hyperscalers will continue opting for Nvidia GPUs to retain dominance in the cloud market.Concerning the management’s comments that the inference reached more than 40% of the company’s business, and given the price tag of Nvidia’s data center GPUs (Hopper is estimated to cost between $25-40k) and the estimated performance of the alternative GPUs, it undeniably raised concerns about the inference part of business. However, model training is a continuous process that should be run consistently due to the rising sophistication, upgrades, and bug elimination. So, the more data is generated through the inference, the more data should be processed by the model, and the more powerful GPU solutions are required.Another strong growth factor for Nvidia is that it remains the leader in the gaming market. The company reported solid consumer demand for gaming hardware during the holiday season, during which I also became an RTX 40 series user, retiring my old GTX card. With the new DLSS technology, Nvidia could dominate the market further since even budget gamers can now opt for the RTX 4050 card and enjoy Cyberpunk 2077 on ultra-settings with enabled Ray Tracing. At the same time, the demand for senior 40 series cards could be encouraged by the rapid proliferation of VR devices and high-resolution monitors. The entry level for which could be the RTX 4070 SUPER, which was recently released, and is the best overall GPU right now. Moreover, the market for AIB discrete GPUs is improving following the COVID device refresh cycle. The latest surveys revealed that graphics card shipments increased by 32% YoY in Q4’23 to 9.5 million units, making an increase for three quarters in a row.Reversion angleSince my last article, the valuation of NVDA has normalized significantly. The forward P/E ratio declined from 59.2x to 35.1x, something that consensus previously expected to happen in Jan 2026 fiscal year. Last time, I mentioned that a 30% growth reversion angle could bring the valuation ratio down to the low 20x in FY2028. However, from the current point of view, this could happen much earlier, as the reversion angle sharpened significantly.Valuation of NVDA; P/E left; EPS right (prepared by author)The chart above clearly delineates this pattern, as the green line (earnings per share) has climbed significantly, thanks to the accelerated growth of data center segment performance. This brought the company’s P/E ratio down substantially, which is now below the violet line, which in turn indicates median 3Y P/E at 40.5x. The two dotted lines represent one standard deviation above and below the median, and we can see that NVDA’s valuation has been hanging around the lower line over the last 6 months. We can also notice that there is a prominent way for multiple expansion towards the median line, which implies a 15.5% upside to $1 013 share price.Before transitioning to the comparison with peers, I would like to clear up the doubts that NVDA has climbed to unsustainable levels.Data by YChartsOver the last three years, NVDA’s SP has appreciated by 485%, especially since the launch of ChatGPT. However, the earnings growth followed suit, up by 463% for the same period, thus justifying the company’s valuation from the EPS growth perspective.Now, compared to AMD, Intel, Broadcom (AVGO) and Qualcomm (QCOM), let’s see how Nvidia is ranking while incorporating future growth expectations.EPS growth and P/E scatter (prepared by author )Clearly below the trend line, suggesting that the company’s 90%+ earnings growth estimate more than justifies the fwd P/E level of 35.1x. Moreover, it means that to bring the company’s valuation in line with the trend line, NVDA's stock price should appreciate at least to the $954 level, or by 8.8%.Finally, I would like to discuss the chart blow in order not to find ourselves in an insidious growth trap. Nvidia reported 5x YoY growth in compute revenue and 3x YoY growth in networking sales, and overall, a 409% YoY surge in data center LOB revenue.Data center revenue (company presentation)Previously, we mentioned that the segment has the potential for up to 38% CAGR over the medium term. But investors may not like to see such low numbers. The recent growth pattern from the chart is due to the low base effect from a year ago, and my point is that market participants should be satisfied even with up to 10% sequential quarterly growth in the data center revenue. Certainly, at some point, NVDA will come down to such rates due to the accelerated growth last year. And given that Nvidia has a leading market share in AI accelerators, we can easily gain insight into the data center cycle because such advanced and expensive GPUs are not usually going through the channel but are sold directly to customers. This means one-for-one impact, bypassing channel inventory, and less volatile market trends compared to gaming, for example. As a result, it’s not likely that we could witness a significant decline in sales, in my view, and the concerns may be raised only in the case of two or three quarters of sequential decrease in data center sales.Risk factorsThe tight monetary policy continues to put pressure on technology budgets. Nvidia is currently a leader in the AI chip market for data centers, while potential supply chain issues could result in stronger adoption of rivals’ products. Risks are also related to further tightening of the U.S. export restrictions in relation to China, which still remains a significant market for Nvidia. In addition, the company has risen strongly over the past year due to the optimistic forecast and positive trends in the AI market. If these trends are compromised by further deterioration of the global economic situation, investors may find themselves disappointed.Investment conclusionI am keeping my bullish call on Nvidia since the company delivered much stronger earnings than my previous piece suggested. NVDA is trading at a more than reasonable valuation, as evidenced by peers’ comparisons and EPS growth, offering up to 15% additional upside at current levels.I believe that Nvidia will remain in the leading positions for the AI-accelerator solutions, leaving behind all the concerns we mentioned above. At this point, the competition could offer alternatives to Hopper architecture, leaving Nvidia with the potential to skim the cream from the data center’s GPU market with the upcoming next-generation Blackwell chips. With this in mind, I believe that the company could maintain closer to mid-double-digit growth numbers in data center revenue, especially once hyperscalers and other cloud GPU providers start deploying leading-edge AI hardware to handle more demanding models.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300432909648176,"gmtCreate":1714367400577,"gmtModify":1714367402856,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"财富效应","listText":"财富效应","text":"财富效应","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300432909648176","repostId":"1161791449","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161791449","pubTimestamp":1714292710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161791449?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-28 16:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Is Doubling Down on Nvidia Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161791449","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"$Nvidia(NVDA)$ is rising today on the news that Morgan Stanley (MS) has upped its bet on NVDA stock.The investment bank sees big things ahead for the artificial intelligence (AI) leader.NVDA stock is ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> is rising today on the news that Morgan Stanley (MS) has upped its bet on NVDA stock.</p></li><li><p>The investment bank sees big things ahead for the artificial intelligence (AI) leader.</p></li><li><p>NVDA stock is likely to keep rising as Wall Street enthusiasm continues to spread.</p></li></ul><p>Wall Street’s enthusiasm for Nvidia isn’t slowing down. The vast majority of analysts currently rate it as a “buy” and maintain bullish price targets. But one prominent financial institution just increased its bet on the artificial intelligence (AI) leader, seizing on the opportunity to acquire NVDA stock on a recent dip. Morgan Stanley has staked an even bigger bet on the AI breakout sensation, which it currently maintains an “overweight” rating and $1,000 price target.</p><p>The investment bank noted that Nvidia’s pricing power and economies of scale were factors in its decision to double down on shares. “This multiple reflects a premium to other semiconductor peers, due to expansion in all AI names as well as the team’s higher conviction in estimates given NVDA’s higher AI exposure,” the investment bank stated in a recent note to investors. This news has provided a boost for both MS and NVDA stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_3157892583\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Why Morgan Stanley Loves NVDA Stock</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As noted, most of Wall Street is highly bullish on Nvidia. Out of 41 polled analysts, 39 maintain “buy” ratings and none rate it as a “sell.” Few stocks can boast such positive sentiment, but Nvidia has demonstrated the type of growth that’s hard not to marvel at.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley doesn’t have the highest NVDA stock price target. But since the company recently increased its Nvidia position, its take is worth taking a closer look. As <em>Fortune</em> reports:</p><blockquote><p><em>“Even after surging more than 200% in the past 12 months alone, Nvidia emerges as a potential big winner this earnings season, according to Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore. Moore has a buy-equivalent “overweight” rating on shares of Nvidia, and expects the stock to spike 21% to $1,000 over the next 12 months as it dominates its AI competition. “NVDA continues to see strong spending trends in AI, with upward revisions in demand from some of the newer customers such as Tesla and various sovereigns,” he wrote.”</em></p></blockquote><p>Moore raised his price target early in April 2024, citing a likely increase in spending on Nvidia’s chips, an extremely important component of the AI revolution. NVDA stock is still down slightly for the month, but it has risen steadily over the past week and is in the green today.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Even while competition continues to mount throughout the AI sector, Nvidia remains the undisputed leader with a client list that only seems to be growing. Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group recently announced plans to start building out its own generative AI model, which it intends to do by purchasing chips from Nvidia.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This recent endorsement from Morgan Stanley is all Nvidia needs to keep growing. More and more companies are jumping on board the AI train by attempting to build their own models. In many cases, that means coming to Nvidia for essential components. NVDA stock is primed to continue rising in 2024 and push past Moore’s $1,000 price target.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Is Doubling Down on Nvidia Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Is Doubling Down on Nvidia Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-28 16:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2024/04/morgan-stanley-is-doubling-down-on-nvidia-nvda-stock/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia is rising today on the news that Morgan Stanley (MS) has upped its bet on NVDA stock.The investment bank sees big things ahead for the artificial intelligence (AI) leader.NVDA stock is likely ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2024/04/morgan-stanley-is-doubling-down-on-nvidia-nvda-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2024/04/morgan-stanley-is-doubling-down-on-nvidia-nvda-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161791449","content_text":"Nvidia is rising today on the news that Morgan Stanley (MS) has upped its bet on NVDA stock.The investment bank sees big things ahead for the artificial intelligence (AI) leader.NVDA stock is likely to keep rising as Wall Street enthusiasm continues to spread.Wall Street’s enthusiasm for Nvidia isn’t slowing down. The vast majority of analysts currently rate it as a “buy” and maintain bullish price targets. But one prominent financial institution just increased its bet on the artificial intelligence (AI) leader, seizing on the opportunity to acquire NVDA stock on a recent dip. Morgan Stanley has staked an even bigger bet on the AI breakout sensation, which it currently maintains an “overweight” rating and $1,000 price target.The investment bank noted that Nvidia’s pricing power and economies of scale were factors in its decision to double down on shares. “This multiple reflects a premium to other semiconductor peers, due to expansion in all AI names as well as the team’s higher conviction in estimates given NVDA’s higher AI exposure,” the investment bank stated in a recent note to investors. This news has provided a boost for both MS and NVDA stock.Why Morgan Stanley Loves NVDA StockAs noted, most of Wall Street is highly bullish on Nvidia. Out of 41 polled analysts, 39 maintain “buy” ratings and none rate it as a “sell.” Few stocks can boast such positive sentiment, but Nvidia has demonstrated the type of growth that’s hard not to marvel at.Morgan Stanley doesn’t have the highest NVDA stock price target. But since the company recently increased its Nvidia position, its take is worth taking a closer look. As Fortune reports:“Even after surging more than 200% in the past 12 months alone, Nvidia emerges as a potential big winner this earnings season, according to Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore. Moore has a buy-equivalent “overweight” rating on shares of Nvidia, and expects the stock to spike 21% to $1,000 over the next 12 months as it dominates its AI competition. “NVDA continues to see strong spending trends in AI, with upward revisions in demand from some of the newer customers such as Tesla and various sovereigns,” he wrote.”Moore raised his price target early in April 2024, citing a likely increase in spending on Nvidia’s chips, an extremely important component of the AI revolution. NVDA stock is still down slightly for the month, but it has risen steadily over the past week and is in the green today.Even while competition continues to mount throughout the AI sector, Nvidia remains the undisputed leader with a client list that only seems to be growing. Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group recently announced plans to start building out its own generative AI model, which it intends to do by purchasing chips from Nvidia.This recent endorsement from Morgan Stanley is all Nvidia needs to keep growing. More and more companies are jumping on board the AI train by attempting to build their own models. In many cases, that means coming to Nvidia for essential components. NVDA stock is primed to continue rising in 2024 and push past Moore’s $1,000 price target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299353481248768,"gmtCreate":1714109676038,"gmtModify":1714109677338,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299353481248768","repostId":"2430029686","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2430029686","pubTimestamp":1714097040,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2430029686?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-26 10:04","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"谷歌高管解读Q1财报：AI会为云业务带来拐点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2430029686","media":"新浪科技","summary":"　　Alphabet今天发布了截至3月31日的2024财年第一季度财报：总营收为805.39亿美元，同比增长15%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长16%；按照美国通用会计准则，Alphabet第一季度净利润为236.62亿美元，同比增长57%；每股摊薄收益为1.89美元，与上年同期的1.17美元相比实现增长。　　财报发布后，谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊，总裁、首席投资官兼CFO露丝·波拉特和首席商务官菲利普·辛德勒召开了分析师电话会议，回答了相关业务的问题。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 专题：聚焦美股2023年第三季度财报 </p>\n<p>　　Alphabet（<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a></span><span></span>母公司）今天发布了截至3月31日的2024财年第一季度财报：总营收为805.39亿美元，同比增长15%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长16%；按照美国通用会计准则，Alphabet第一季度净利润为236.62亿美元，同比增长57%；每股摊薄收益为1.89美元，与上年同期的1.17美元相比实现增长。</p>\n<blockquote>　　详见：谷歌母公司Alphabet一季度营收805亿美元 宣布史上首个股息计划</blockquote>\n<p>　　财报发布后，<strong>谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊（Sundar Pichai），总裁、首席投资官兼CFO露丝·波拉特（Ruth Porat）和首席商务官菲利普·辛德勒（Philipp Schindler）</strong>召开了分析师电话会议，回答了相关业务的问题。</p>\n<p>　　<strong>以下是分析师电话会议回答摘要：</strong></p>\n<p><strong>　　<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a></span><span></span>分析师Brian Nowak：</strong>我的第一个问题有关用户的整体搜索行为变化。菲利普，您之前曾谈到谷歌的用户检索趋势保持增长，如果把目光放在业务变现的话，目前谷歌的搜索业务变现趋势是否也有变化？因为新用户源源不断的加入，可能业务变现趋势也会随之变动。</p>\n<p>　　我的第二个问题想问露丝。之前您谈到会进一步减缓集团的费用支出增速。您能否为我们举一些具体例子？比如在您看来，2024年公司内部还有哪些能进一步优化的工作流程？或者说哪些业务还能进一步压缩运营支出？</p>\n<p><strong>　　桑达尔·皮查伊：</strong>关于你的第一个问题。总的来说，多年来的运营经验告诉我们，如果用户生态运转良好，业务变现也会随之而来。目前来看，我们搜索业务的趋势表现很好。将生成式人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>（generative AI）引入搜索业务确实有效拓宽了检索类型，以便我们为用户提供更多样的检索方式。此外，人工智能的引入还能让我们回答各种类型的、更复杂的问题。</p>\n<p>　　至于你问到的变现趋势，目前来看一切还都处在早期阶段，我们会将用户体验放在首位。但我们对未来搜索业务的变现趋势非常看好。</p>\n<p><strong>　　露丝·波拉特：</strong>关于你的第二个问题。其实之前桑达尔和我都曾提到，<strong>我们将继续发力，持续降低公司的费用增长速度。</strong>这项工作在我们内部称为“持续性成本结构优化”（Durably Reengineer Cost Base）。在前面的简报中我们也提到，我们非常清楚当前公司面对的大环境逆风影响，比如货币贬值、较高的折旧率与资本支出费用等等。从这个角度来说，对成本结构的持续优化与重新设计的工作会一直继续。</p>\n<p>　　在之前的电话会议中其实我们也与大家分享过，我们的工作一直是从业务、产品以及工作流的重要性与优先级出发，目的在于提高组织效率、优化组织结构。举例来说，之前桑达尔曾提到将服务、设备与平台生态系统相结合，整合团队资源。这不仅能帮助我们提高产品质量、优化用户体验，同时也能帮助我们提升工作速度与效率。此外，之前我也与大家分享过我们对技术基础设施的优化，桑达尔还提到我们会利用人工智能技术简化内部运营，提升效率；再比如我们还与供应商、销售商一道优化了采购流程，同时对公司的房地产业务进行优化等等。以上工作都是在持续进行的，同时也是“持续性成本结构优化”工作的一部分。</p>\n<p>　<strong>　瑞士信贷分析师Stephen Ju：</strong>我的问题想问菲利普。自从在YouTube Shorts（YouTube竖屏短视频软件）上投放广告已经过去两年的时间，每季度您都会与我们分享YouTube Shorts广告业务的盈利变化。从这点出发，我看到YouTube为广告商推出了一系列广告产品与自动化工具，帮助他们更好地投放竖屏广告产品。能否请您与我们分享一下目前广告商对YouTube广告产品的购买行为变化？另外，根据您过去两年的观察，影响YouTube广告变现有哪些结构性因素？目前YouTube横屏广告业务表现如何？</p>\n<p><strong>　　菲利普·辛德勒：</strong>总的来说，我们认为YouTube的表现还是非常强劲的。特别是<strong>在美国地区，相比12个月之前，本季度YouTube Shorts的变现率增加了一倍多。</strong>我们对YouTube Shorts当前的表现非常满意。大家不妨这样想，广告商只有在获得正向积极的投资回报率（ROI）时才会持续在我们这里投资，所以如果表现不够优秀，广告商是不会选择在我们这里投钱的。这点非常重要。</p>\n<p>　　总的来说，YouTube Shorts与我们而言是一项长期工作，它能帮助我们满足创作者与观众对短视频的强劲需求。此前我也与大家分享过，YouTube Shorts目前的日均浏览量已经达到700亿次，多渠道上载量同比增加了50%。</p>\n<p>　　最后，关于你提到的结构性影响因素。目前来说我很难给出具体回答，还需要一段时间的观察。</p>\n<p>　<strong>　美林美银分析师Justin Post：</strong>我的问题还是有关资本支出。从数据上来看，资本支出似乎是公司当前最大的资金投资项目。我看到在过去两个季度，公司的资本支出大幅增长，但其实谷歌多年来一直都在投资人工智能领域。我的问题是，这种资本支出增长背后的原因是什么？是因为当前的供应处于顺风、较为容易获取？还是说现在是推动人工智能发展的好机会，管理层认为是时候加大投资？</p>\n<p>　　另外，关于广告业务与云业务的资本支出回报。您认为提高资本支出是否意味着业务成本也相应推高？还是说管理层认为提高资本支出能为公司带来比过去更强、更好的回报机遇？</p>\n<p><strong>　　露丝·波拉特：</strong>正如桑达尔和我之前与大家分享的一样，公司资本支出的增加意味着我们其实在公司多项业务中都看到了增长机遇，包括大型语言模型Gemini、云服务、谷歌云平台（GCP）以及基础设施等方面的增长，再比如搜索业务、YouTube等等。这些都是不断增长的业务重点，我们需要确保自身有足够的资金能力支撑这些业务发展机遇。</p>\n<p>这也就引出了你的第二个问题，我们相信增加各项业务的资本支出能够为我们带来更高的收入机会。我们对变现机会非常关注，这也是支撑谷歌服务、谷歌云业务等的关键基础。另外，桑达尔之前也指出，我们对公司的效率也非常关注，会尽可能地优化流程、提升效率，确保软件、硬件、计算能力等匹配得上公司的快速发展。</p>\n<p><strong>　　<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI分析师Jane Lee：</strong>我的第一个问题还是有关谷歌的搜索业务。谷歌之前也推出了人工智能聊天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>，在这样的大背景下，管理层认为人工智能技术在搜索业务中的应用能否帮助搜索业务实现搜索量的大幅变化？或者说人工智能技术的应用能否带来创造性的搜索功能变化？能否请管理层与我们分享您在这方面的看法以及对未来的期待？</p>\n<p>　　我的第二个问题有关YouTube与云业务。目前谷歌的YouTube业务与云业务运行率都达到千亿级别。管理层对这两项业务的前景有何看法？未来云业务需求是否会出现拐点？生成式人工智能技术会为业务带来哪些巨变？能否请管理层与我们具体分享一下。</p>\n<p><strong>　　桑达尔·皮查伊：</strong>关于你的第一个问题。之前我曾与大家分享过相关看法，这里我再明确一次。</p>\n<p>　　在我们看来，<strong>现在正是搜索业务增长的利好时期。生成式人工智能技术的应用能让我们从纵深上拓展产品。</strong>大家要知道，搜索是一种非常独特的体验，用户选择搜索，是因为他们想要获取答案、想要探索更多、想要从网络上获取新的知识与观点、想要从深度与广度两方面了解他们在查询的内容。我们需要确保技术的创新跟得上用户需求，这也是一直以来我们所做的工作。目前来看，我对我们的进展非常满意，特别是我对当前公司的创新很自豪。</p>\n<p>　　总的来说，我认为现在是搜索业务增长的利好时期。</p>\n<p><strong>　　露丝·波拉特：</strong>我同意桑达尔在简报中提到的，目前我们在这些业务中观察到强劲的业绩与增长势头。随着时间的推移，我们将继续发展业务、扩大业务规模。上季度的财报会议其实我们也提到了，我们为公司团队工作所取得的进展而感到满意。他们创造很多机遇，为用户、客户、广告商提供了多重服务，多年来也帮助公司拓宽了业务规模。</p>\n<p><strong>　　<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a></span><span></span>分析师Ken Gawrelski：</strong>我的第一个问题有关GCP。我看到谷歌的GCP业务本季度增速良好。如果GCP想要实现加速增长、获取更大市场份额，管理层认为目前GCP面临着哪些机遇？又有哪些因素限制着GCP发展？未来GCP会更侧重销售，还是产品与解决方案？或者说二者兼而有之？另外，对于GCP业务，管理层是否计划与外部公司合作？还是说GCP业务会完全属于谷歌内部生态系统？</p>\n<p>　　我的第二个问题有关YouTube的体育赛事转播授权。对于未来YouTube体育赛事转播授权，管理层有哪些规划或者说看法？我们知道接下来几年可能会有更多大型赛事的转播版权流入市场。能否请管理层谈一谈您对这项业务的核心理念？比如NFL职业橄榄球大联盟、全美职业橄榄球大联盟“周日门票”等等。</p>\n<p><strong>　　桑达尔·皮查伊：云业务方面。人工智能技术的引入绝对会为业务带来拐点。</strong></p>\n<p>　　人工智能技术带来的业务转型促使各方都在思考如何参与进来。举例来说，考虑到谷歌人工智能模型的深度与广度，人们希望vertexAI（谷歌推出的托管式机器学习平台）能帮助他们提升效率，或者通过Google Workspace提高生产力。人工智能技术确实为我们带来了非常多的机遇。</p>\n<p>　　<strong>至于说是内部工作还是会寻求外部合作，我认为二者兼而有之。</strong>一部分工作会在谷歌内部进行，我们也不拒绝与外部伙伴进行合作。大家要知道，挑战一直存在，用户迁移上云是需要成本的。我们需要解决的挑战在于，如何让用户迁移上云的过程更容易、更顺利？对此我们会进行持续投资，以便为用户带去更多便利。</p>\n<p><strong>　　菲利普·辛德勒：</strong>关于体育赛事转播权的问题。谷歌与全美乃至全球许多非常受欢迎的体育联盟、球队、运动员、广播公司等都建立了长期且重要的合作伙伴关系，这些合作伙伴关系加之YouTube上庞大的体育迷基数，能够带来大量的订阅数与产品投资。但目前我没有更多新内容与大家分享。当然，一直以来我们都在寻找如何为用户、广告商、视频创作者创造更高价值的机会。</p>\n<p>　　（持续更新中。。。）</p>\n<div> </div>\n<div>\n<span>股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你&gt;&gt;</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：刘明亮 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谷歌高管解读Q1财报：AI会为云业务带来拐点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌高管解读Q1财报：AI会为云业务带来拐点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-26 10:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-26/doc-inatcmza6898861.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>专题：聚焦美股2023年第三季度财报 \n　　Alphabet（谷歌母公司）今天发布了截至3月31日的2024财年第一季度财报：总营收为805.39亿美元，同比增长15%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长16%；按照美国通用会计准则，Alphabet第一季度净利润为236.62亿美元，同比增长57%；每股摊薄收益为1.89美元，与上年同期的1.17美元相比实现增长。\n　　详见：谷歌母公司...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-26/doc-inatcmza6898861.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-26/doc-inatcmza6898861.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2430029686","content_text":"专题：聚焦美股2023年第三季度财报 \n　　Alphabet（谷歌母公司）今天发布了截至3月31日的2024财年第一季度财报：总营收为805.39亿美元，同比增长15%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长16%；按照美国通用会计准则，Alphabet第一季度净利润为236.62亿美元，同比增长57%；每股摊薄收益为1.89美元，与上年同期的1.17美元相比实现增长。\n　　详见：谷歌母公司Alphabet一季度营收805亿美元 宣布史上首个股息计划\n　　财报发布后，谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊（Sundar Pichai），总裁、首席投资官兼CFO露丝·波拉特（Ruth Porat）和首席商务官菲利普·辛德勒（Philipp Schindler）召开了分析师电话会议，回答了相关业务的问题。\n　　以下是分析师电话会议回答摘要：\n　　摩根士丹利分析师Brian Nowak：我的第一个问题有关用户的整体搜索行为变化。菲利普，您之前曾谈到谷歌的用户检索趋势保持增长，如果把目光放在业务变现的话，目前谷歌的搜索业务变现趋势是否也有变化？因为新用户源源不断的加入，可能业务变现趋势也会随之变动。\n　　我的第二个问题想问露丝。之前您谈到会进一步减缓集团的费用支出增速。您能否为我们举一些具体例子？比如在您看来，2024年公司内部还有哪些能进一步优化的工作流程？或者说哪些业务还能进一步压缩运营支出？\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：关于你的第一个问题。总的来说，多年来的运营经验告诉我们，如果用户生态运转良好，业务变现也会随之而来。目前来看，我们搜索业务的趋势表现很好。将生成式人工智能（generative AI）引入搜索业务确实有效拓宽了检索类型，以便我们为用户提供更多样的检索方式。此外，人工智能的引入还能让我们回答各种类型的、更复杂的问题。\n　　至于你问到的变现趋势，目前来看一切还都处在早期阶段，我们会将用户体验放在首位。但我们对未来搜索业务的变现趋势非常看好。\n　　露丝·波拉特：关于你的第二个问题。其实之前桑达尔和我都曾提到，我们将继续发力，持续降低公司的费用增长速度。这项工作在我们内部称为“持续性成本结构优化”（Durably Reengineer Cost Base）。在前面的简报中我们也提到，我们非常清楚当前公司面对的大环境逆风影响，比如货币贬值、较高的折旧率与资本支出费用等等。从这个角度来说，对成本结构的持续优化与重新设计的工作会一直继续。\n　　在之前的电话会议中其实我们也与大家分享过，我们的工作一直是从业务、产品以及工作流的重要性与优先级出发，目的在于提高组织效率、优化组织结构。举例来说，之前桑达尔曾提到将服务、设备与平台生态系统相结合，整合团队资源。这不仅能帮助我们提高产品质量、优化用户体验，同时也能帮助我们提升工作速度与效率。此外，之前我也与大家分享过我们对技术基础设施的优化，桑达尔还提到我们会利用人工智能技术简化内部运营，提升效率；再比如我们还与供应商、销售商一道优化了采购流程，同时对公司的房地产业务进行优化等等。以上工作都是在持续进行的，同时也是“持续性成本结构优化”工作的一部分。\n　　瑞士信贷分析师Stephen Ju：我的问题想问菲利普。自从在YouTube Shorts（YouTube竖屏短视频软件）上投放广告已经过去两年的时间，每季度您都会与我们分享YouTube Shorts广告业务的盈利变化。从这点出发，我看到YouTube为广告商推出了一系列广告产品与自动化工具，帮助他们更好地投放竖屏广告产品。能否请您与我们分享一下目前广告商对YouTube广告产品的购买行为变化？另外，根据您过去两年的观察，影响YouTube广告变现有哪些结构性因素？目前YouTube横屏广告业务表现如何？\n　　菲利普·辛德勒：总的来说，我们认为YouTube的表现还是非常强劲的。特别是在美国地区，相比12个月之前，本季度YouTube Shorts的变现率增加了一倍多。我们对YouTube Shorts当前的表现非常满意。大家不妨这样想，广告商只有在获得正向积极的投资回报率（ROI）时才会持续在我们这里投资，所以如果表现不够优秀，广告商是不会选择在我们这里投钱的。这点非常重要。\n　　总的来说，YouTube Shorts与我们而言是一项长期工作，它能帮助我们满足创作者与观众对短视频的强劲需求。此前我也与大家分享过，YouTube Shorts目前的日均浏览量已经达到700亿次，多渠道上载量同比增加了50%。\n　　最后，关于你提到的结构性影响因素。目前来说我很难给出具体回答，还需要一段时间的观察。\n　　美林美银分析师Justin Post：我的问题还是有关资本支出。从数据上来看，资本支出似乎是公司当前最大的资金投资项目。我看到在过去两个季度，公司的资本支出大幅增长，但其实谷歌多年来一直都在投资人工智能领域。我的问题是，这种资本支出增长背后的原因是什么？是因为当前的供应处于顺风、较为容易获取？还是说现在是推动人工智能发展的好机会，管理层认为是时候加大投资？\n　　另外，关于广告业务与云业务的资本支出回报。您认为提高资本支出是否意味着业务成本也相应推高？还是说管理层认为提高资本支出能为公司带来比过去更强、更好的回报机遇？\n　　露丝·波拉特：正如桑达尔和我之前与大家分享的一样，公司资本支出的增加意味着我们其实在公司多项业务中都看到了增长机遇，包括大型语言模型Gemini、云服务、谷歌云平台（GCP）以及基础设施等方面的增长，再比如搜索业务、YouTube等等。这些都是不断增长的业务重点，我们需要确保自身有足够的资金能力支撑这些业务发展机遇。\n这也就引出了你的第二个问题，我们相信增加各项业务的资本支出能够为我们带来更高的收入机会。我们对变现机会非常关注，这也是支撑谷歌服务、谷歌云业务等的关键基础。另外，桑达尔之前也指出，我们对公司的效率也非常关注，会尽可能地优化流程、提升效率，确保软件、硬件、计算能力等匹配得上公司的快速发展。\n　　Evercore ISI分析师Jane Lee：我的第一个问题还是有关谷歌的搜索业务。谷歌之前也推出了人工智能聊天机器人，在这样的大背景下，管理层认为人工智能技术在搜索业务中的应用能否帮助搜索业务实现搜索量的大幅变化？或者说人工智能技术的应用能否带来创造性的搜索功能变化？能否请管理层与我们分享您在这方面的看法以及对未来的期待？\n　　我的第二个问题有关YouTube与云业务。目前谷歌的YouTube业务与云业务运行率都达到千亿级别。管理层对这两项业务的前景有何看法？未来云业务需求是否会出现拐点？生成式人工智能技术会为业务带来哪些巨变？能否请管理层与我们具体分享一下。\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：关于你的第一个问题。之前我曾与大家分享过相关看法，这里我再明确一次。\n　　在我们看来，现在正是搜索业务增长的利好时期。生成式人工智能技术的应用能让我们从纵深上拓展产品。大家要知道，搜索是一种非常独特的体验，用户选择搜索，是因为他们想要获取答案、想要探索更多、想要从网络上获取新的知识与观点、想要从深度与广度两方面了解他们在查询的内容。我们需要确保技术的创新跟得上用户需求，这也是一直以来我们所做的工作。目前来看，我对我们的进展非常满意，特别是我对当前公司的创新很自豪。\n　　总的来说，我认为现在是搜索业务增长的利好时期。\n　　露丝·波拉特：我同意桑达尔在简报中提到的，目前我们在这些业务中观察到强劲的业绩与增长势头。随着时间的推移，我们将继续发展业务、扩大业务规模。上季度的财报会议其实我们也提到了，我们为公司团队工作所取得的进展而感到满意。他们创造很多机遇，为用户、客户、广告商提供了多重服务，多年来也帮助公司拓宽了业务规模。\n　　富国银行分析师Ken Gawrelski：我的第一个问题有关GCP。我看到谷歌的GCP业务本季度增速良好。如果GCP想要实现加速增长、获取更大市场份额，管理层认为目前GCP面临着哪些机遇？又有哪些因素限制着GCP发展？未来GCP会更侧重销售，还是产品与解决方案？或者说二者兼而有之？另外，对于GCP业务，管理层是否计划与外部公司合作？还是说GCP业务会完全属于谷歌内部生态系统？\n　　我的第二个问题有关YouTube的体育赛事转播授权。对于未来YouTube体育赛事转播授权，管理层有哪些规划或者说看法？我们知道接下来几年可能会有更多大型赛事的转播版权流入市场。能否请管理层谈一谈您对这项业务的核心理念？比如NFL职业橄榄球大联盟、全美职业橄榄球大联盟“周日门票”等等。\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：云业务方面。人工智能技术的引入绝对会为业务带来拐点。\n　　人工智能技术带来的业务转型促使各方都在思考如何参与进来。举例来说，考虑到谷歌人工智能模型的深度与广度，人们希望vertexAI（谷歌推出的托管式机器学习平台）能帮助他们提升效率，或者通过Google Workspace提高生产力。人工智能技术确实为我们带来了非常多的机遇。\n　　至于说是内部工作还是会寻求外部合作，我认为二者兼而有之。一部分工作会在谷歌内部进行，我们也不拒绝与外部伙伴进行合作。大家要知道，挑战一直存在，用户迁移上云是需要成本的。我们需要解决的挑战在于，如何让用户迁移上云的过程更容易、更顺利？对此我们会进行持续投资，以便为用户带去更多便利。\n　　菲利普·辛德勒：关于体育赛事转播权的问题。谷歌与全美乃至全球许多非常受欢迎的体育联盟、球队、运动员、广播公司等都建立了长期且重要的合作伙伴关系，这些合作伙伴关系加之YouTube上庞大的体育迷基数，能够带来大量的订阅数与产品投资。但目前我没有更多新内容与大家分享。当然，一直以来我们都在寻找如何为用户、广告商、视频创作者创造更高价值的机会。\n　　（持续更新中。。。）\n \n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你>>\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘明亮","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299353799503944,"gmtCreate":1714109627952,"gmtModify":1714109629591,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299353799503944","repostId":"2430292404","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2430292404","pubTimestamp":1714102241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2430292404?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-26 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"同样“豪赌”AI，为何Meta大跌，但微软、谷歌大涨？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2430292404","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"AI投资已经开始为谷歌和微软带来巨大的效益，但对Meta业绩而言更像是一个沉重的包袱，AI变现之路任重道远。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>AI投资已经开始为谷歌和微软带来巨大的效益，但对Meta业绩而言更像是一个沉重的包袱，AI变现之路任重道远。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI无疑已成为科技巨头们新一轮战略布局的关键。然而，一季度财报证明，虽然它们都在AI领域疯狂烧钱，但当下对于公司业绩的影响完全不同。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度业绩同样强劲，谷歌母公司Alphabet和微软在盘后交易中股价大涨，前者周四美股盘后一度涨超15%至历史新高，而Facebook母公司Meta的股价则遭到重创，隔夜跌幅超过10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09565eb8f5081f8629f67f54b57705a3\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/396d1a1fe0ec1c414b34909291276e21\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"832\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f18d31239c1eb8eee7141a1559157f\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>造成这种差异的关键在于，现阶段，<strong>AI投资已经开始为谷歌和微软带来巨大的效益，但对Meta业绩而言更像是一个沉重的包袱，AI变现之路任重道远。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在刚刚结束的电话会上，谷歌和微软双双确认了AI对业绩的积极作用。</p><h2 id=\"id_2987088464\">AI推动谷歌云收入同比大增28%，谷歌称将努力控制成本增长</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示，谷歌母公司Alphabet一季度总营收805.4亿美元，同比增长15%创2022年初以来最快增速，并高于市场预期的790.4亿美元。调整后每股收益1.89美元，远超预期的1.53美元，较上年同期的1.17美元同比激增61.5%。净利润同比跃升57%至236.6亿美元，高于预期的189.5亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一季度谷歌云收入达到96亿美元，同比增长28%，</strong>首席财务官Ruth Porat表示这得益于“AI带来的日益增长的贡献”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>尽管AI的支出巨大，但Porat表示谷歌仍在控制这些成本。</strong>她说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">展望未来，我们仍将专注于努力放慢支出增长步伐，为技术基础设施投资水平的提高以及相关折旧和费用的增加腾出空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于资本支出，我们本季度的资本支出为120亿美元，这主要是投资于技术基础设施，其中以服务器为最大支出，其次是数据中心。近几个季度资本支出同比大幅增长，反映了我们对AI在整个业务中提供的机遇充满信心。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，未来评估谷歌在AI领域的投入和支出会变得更加困难，因为谷歌进行了组织架构调整，从二季度开始，原本隶属于谷歌服务部门的AI模型开发团队将迁移到DeepMind，后者直属于Alphabet母公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也就是说，从二季度开始，AI的相关会计处理将从谷歌转移到Alphabet总部层面。这将增加评估谷歌在AI领域投入产出的难度，因为相关费用将纳入Alphabet整体，而非仅限于谷歌单位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当然，投资者对于谷歌的热情还出于股东大礼包：700亿回购计划+历史首次分红。</p><h2 id=\"id_1841074911\">AI驱动微软业绩全面超预期，巨大支出不足为惧？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在AI的驱动下，微软当季财报关键指标和各项业务全面超预期，其中整体微软云收入同比增23%至351亿美元，智能云收入增21%至267亿美元，Azure收入逐季加速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得一提的是，Azure和其他云服务的收入增长了31%，高于市场预期的增长28.6%，以及去年三季度的增速29%和去年四季度的增速30%，<strong>代表AI确实在推动云收入加速增长。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软执行副总裁兼首席财务官Amy Hood告诉投资者：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们预计未来几年资本支出将增加，以支持云产品的增长以及我们在AI基础设施和培训方面的投资。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在微软的收益电话会议上，摩根士丹利分析师Keith Weiss提出有关微软在AI方面投资的更多细节问题，并指出微软的资本支出同比将增加逾50%，达到500亿美元，同时有关于斥资1000亿美元打造AI超级计算机的传闻，他表达了对AI巨大投入的担忧：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">显然，（AI）投资已近超过了收益贡献，但我希望你们能阐述管理团队如何量化这些投资所依据的潜在机遇，因为投资规模已经变得非常大。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首席执行官Satya Nadella回应说，在训练方面，微软希望“能够投入所需资本来基本上训练这些大型基础模型，并在这一领域保持领先地位”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Hood补充说，<strong>最重要的是要考虑这种大规模支出超越季度影响，而要思考如何把握AI影响每个业务流程的机会。</strong></p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">机会在于我们增加的价值，我期待能继续实现这一点。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_4099506774\">AI效益还未完全显现，Meta加速“烧钱”步伐？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相较于谷歌和微软，Meta一季度业绩表现并不差，营收和利润均高于预期，核心广告收入增长提速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其核心广告业务的收入为356.4亿美元，同比增长26.8%，在总营收中的占比小幅提升至约98%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了AI的催化作用外，<strong>电子商务和游戏领域的需求火爆是最大的功臣</strong>，为Meta广告业务的高歌猛进狠狠添了一把柴火。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，<strong>“效率年”的积极影响还在延续。</strong>去年在宏观经济形势严峻的背景下，Meta大刀阔斧裁员、削减成本，并将2023年称为“效率年”。这一计划下，Meta全年财务表现得到大幅提振。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但万万没想到，<strong>开年一季度Meta反手就大幅上调了今年的开支预算，这势必对公司财务表现造成巨大拖累。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta在一季度财报中将今年的资本支出预期从300亿至370亿美元上调至350亿到400亿美元，称因加快基础设施投资以支持AI路线图。Meta还预计明年的资本支出会继续增加。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在随后召开的一季度电话会上，Meta首席执行官扎克伯格表示，他认为Meta“应该在未来几年大幅增加投资，以构建更先进的模型和世界上规模最大的AI服务”。他补充称，“在我们从这些新产品中获得大量收入之前”，这些支出必须“有意义地增长”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最让投资者感到害怕的是，扎克伯格表示，<strong>AI变现需要的时间可能有点长</strong>：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>构建领先的AI也将是一个比我们添加到应用程序中的其他体验更为庞大的任务，这可能需要几年时间。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> 扎克伯格表态后，Meta周三盘后跌幅一度扩大至近20%，周四继续大跌，收盘时跌幅超过10%。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n同样“豪赌”AI，为何Meta大跌，但微软、谷歌大涨？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-26 11:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713689><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AI投资已经开始为谷歌和微软带来巨大的效益，但对Meta业绩而言更像是一个沉重的包袱，AI变现之路任重道远。AI无疑已成为科技巨头们新一轮战略布局的关键。然而，一季度财报证明，虽然它们都在AI领域疯狂烧钱，但当下对于公司业绩的影响完全不同。一季度业绩同样强劲，谷歌母公司Alphabet和微软在盘后交易中股价大涨，前者周四美股盘后一度涨超15%至历史新高，而Facebook母公司Meta的股价则遭到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713689\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d34e64d65c7f923e7e68d778e7283c","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713689","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2430292404","content_text":"AI投资已经开始为谷歌和微软带来巨大的效益，但对Meta业绩而言更像是一个沉重的包袱，AI变现之路任重道远。AI无疑已成为科技巨头们新一轮战略布局的关键。然而，一季度财报证明，虽然它们都在AI领域疯狂烧钱，但当下对于公司业绩的影响完全不同。一季度业绩同样强劲，谷歌母公司Alphabet和微软在盘后交易中股价大涨，前者周四美股盘后一度涨超15%至历史新高，而Facebook母公司Meta的股价则遭到重创，隔夜跌幅超过10%。造成这种差异的关键在于，现阶段，AI投资已经开始为谷歌和微软带来巨大的效益，但对Meta业绩而言更像是一个沉重的包袱，AI变现之路任重道远。在刚刚结束的电话会上，谷歌和微软双双确认了AI对业绩的积极作用。AI推动谷歌云收入同比大增28%，谷歌称将努力控制成本增长财报显示，谷歌母公司Alphabet一季度总营收805.4亿美元，同比增长15%创2022年初以来最快增速，并高于市场预期的790.4亿美元。调整后每股收益1.89美元，远超预期的1.53美元，较上年同期的1.17美元同比激增61.5%。净利润同比跃升57%至236.6亿美元，高于预期的189.5亿美元。一季度谷歌云收入达到96亿美元，同比增长28%，首席财务官Ruth Porat表示这得益于“AI带来的日益增长的贡献”。尽管AI的支出巨大，但Porat表示谷歌仍在控制这些成本。她说：展望未来，我们仍将专注于努力放慢支出增长步伐，为技术基础设施投资水平的提高以及相关折旧和费用的增加腾出空间。关于资本支出，我们本季度的资本支出为120亿美元，这主要是投资于技术基础设施，其中以服务器为最大支出，其次是数据中心。近几个季度资本支出同比大幅增长，反映了我们对AI在整个业务中提供的机遇充满信心。然而，未来评估谷歌在AI领域的投入和支出会变得更加困难，因为谷歌进行了组织架构调整，从二季度开始，原本隶属于谷歌服务部门的AI模型开发团队将迁移到DeepMind，后者直属于Alphabet母公司。也就是说，从二季度开始，AI的相关会计处理将从谷歌转移到Alphabet总部层面。这将增加评估谷歌在AI领域投入产出的难度，因为相关费用将纳入Alphabet整体，而非仅限于谷歌单位。当然，投资者对于谷歌的热情还出于股东大礼包：700亿回购计划+历史首次分红。AI驱动微软业绩全面超预期，巨大支出不足为惧？在AI的驱动下，微软当季财报关键指标和各项业务全面超预期，其中整体微软云收入同比增23%至351亿美元，智能云收入增21%至267亿美元，Azure收入逐季加速增长。值得一提的是，Azure和其他云服务的收入增长了31%，高于市场预期的增长28.6%，以及去年三季度的增速29%和去年四季度的增速30%，代表AI确实在推动云收入加速增长。微软执行副总裁兼首席财务官Amy Hood告诉投资者：我们预计未来几年资本支出将增加，以支持云产品的增长以及我们在AI基础设施和培训方面的投资。在微软的收益电话会议上，摩根士丹利分析师Keith Weiss提出有关微软在AI方面投资的更多细节问题，并指出微软的资本支出同比将增加逾50%，达到500亿美元，同时有关于斥资1000亿美元打造AI超级计算机的传闻，他表达了对AI巨大投入的担忧：显然，（AI）投资已近超过了收益贡献，但我希望你们能阐述管理团队如何量化这些投资所依据的潜在机遇，因为投资规模已经变得非常大。首席执行官Satya Nadella回应说，在训练方面，微软希望“能够投入所需资本来基本上训练这些大型基础模型，并在这一领域保持领先地位”。Hood补充说，最重要的是要考虑这种大规模支出超越季度影响，而要思考如何把握AI影响每个业务流程的机会。机会在于我们增加的价值，我期待能继续实现这一点。AI效益还未完全显现，Meta加速“烧钱”步伐？相较于谷歌和微软，Meta一季度业绩表现并不差，营收和利润均高于预期，核心广告收入增长提速。其核心广告业务的收入为356.4亿美元，同比增长26.8%，在总营收中的占比小幅提升至约98%。除了AI的催化作用外，电子商务和游戏领域的需求火爆是最大的功臣，为Meta广告业务的高歌猛进狠狠添了一把柴火。另外，“效率年”的积极影响还在延续。去年在宏观经济形势严峻的背景下，Meta大刀阔斧裁员、削减成本，并将2023年称为“效率年”。这一计划下，Meta全年财务表现得到大幅提振。但万万没想到，开年一季度Meta反手就大幅上调了今年的开支预算，这势必对公司财务表现造成巨大拖累。Meta在一季度财报中将今年的资本支出预期从300亿至370亿美元上调至350亿到400亿美元，称因加快基础设施投资以支持AI路线图。Meta还预计明年的资本支出会继续增加。在随后召开的一季度电话会上，Meta首席执行官扎克伯格表示，他认为Meta“应该在未来几年大幅增加投资，以构建更先进的模型和世界上规模最大的AI服务”。他补充称，“在我们从这些新产品中获得大量收入之前”，这些支出必须“有意义地增长”。最让投资者感到害怕的是，扎克伯格表示，AI变现需要的时间可能有点长：构建领先的AI也将是一个比我们添加到应用程序中的其他体验更为庞大的任务，这可能需要几年时间。 扎克伯格表态后，Meta周三盘后跌幅一度扩大至近20%，周四继续大跌，收盘时跌幅超过10%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":82,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299351402631480,"gmtCreate":1714109175268,"gmtModify":1714109177230,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"公司预言“科技行业正处于 Al 带来的巨大平台转变之中。”","listText":"公司预言“科技行业正处于 Al 带来的巨大平台转变之中。”","text":"公司预言“科技行业正处于 Al 带来的巨大平台转变之中。”","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299351402631480","repostId":"2430541642","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2430541642","pubTimestamp":1714083293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2430541642?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-26 06:14","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"谷歌史上首次分红，Q1营收、广告、云收入均提速，盘后涨15%至新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2430541642","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"谷歌一季度收入增长两年最快，利润激增六成，押注AI的资本支出120亿美元。云业务增长重新提速至去年初的28%高位，其运营利润猛翻四倍，广告收入稳健改善。公司还在史上首次发放季度股息，将额外回购至多70","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>谷歌一季度收入增长两年最快，利润激增六成，押注AI的资本支出120亿美元。云业务增长重新提速至去年初的28%高位，其运营利润猛翻四倍，广告收入稳健改善。公司还在史上首次发放季度股息，将额外回购至多700亿美元股票。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/203f9e9ff03a3a3093d834d88aed3439\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4月25日周四美股盘后，同样大举进军AI的全球数字广告和搜索巨头、谷歌母公司Alphabet发布了2024年一季度财报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于广告和云收入均提速增长，各项指标全面超预期，且史上首次发放季度股息，Alphabet股价盘后涨超15%至历史新高，若保持到周五开盘将令市值激增约3000亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6767797491441c2e7adfb5e23709f8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"958\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周四Alphabet A类股收跌约2%，止步三日连涨，但今年累涨超11%，显著跑赢大盘涨幅，过去12个月累涨50%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于看好核心搜索业务、YouTube广告和云领域的持续强势，华尔街对Alphabet的共识评级是“强烈买入”，其中有30位分析师建议“买入”，7人评级“持有”，没有人推荐“卖出”，平均目标价为167.51美元，代表还有9%的潜在涨幅空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_1746928228\" style=\"text-align: start;\">谷歌Q1收入增长提速至两年最快，利润同比激增六成，押注AI的资本支出120亿美元</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示，谷歌母公司一季度总营收805.4亿美元，同比增长15%创2022年初以来最快增速，并高于市场预期的790.4亿美元。调整后每股收益1.89美元，远超预期的1.53美元，较上年同期的1.17美元同比激增61.5%。净利润同比跃升57%至236.6亿美元，高于预期的189.5亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与去年四季度的营收863.1亿美元、EPS每股收益1.64美元、净利润206.9亿美元相比，谷歌母公司的一季度收入环比下滑，这符合市场预期，但利润意外得到提振，受益于AI带来的利好。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">整体来说，谷歌收入的同比指标正在加速增长，去年三季度的总营收在一年多来首次恢复两位数同比增幅，此前曾连续四个季度的增幅回落至个位数百分比，主要由于广告商的支出因通胀飙升和美联储激进加息而走弱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街普遍认为，将生成式AI集成到产品中产生的人工智能需求不断增长，可能会在未来几个季度持续提振其云业务收入。同时，搜索和YouTube主导的广告收入也在随着行业趋势不断改善。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e4efe2299065098d955dc20f9db498\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当季谷歌支付给合作伙伴的流量获取成本（TAC）为129.5亿美元，超过市场预期的127.4亿美元，这一指标对利润产生影响。不过营业利润率从上年同期的25%扩张至32%，高于预期的28.6%。<strong>在备受关注的AI投资方面，谷歌当季的资本支出为120亿美元，较预期多出17亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司称，研究人员们针对大语言模型Gemini取得迅猛进展，资本开支增加，体现出在基建的投资。 谷歌正开始将AI概览部署到主要的搜索页面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首席执行官皮查伊在声明中称，Alphabet在人工智能研究和基础设施方面的领先地位以及全球产品足迹，令该公司在下一波人工智能创新浪潮中处于有利地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其财报还称：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“正如4月18日宣布的那样，我们正在整合Google Research和Google DeepMind中专注于构建人工智能模型的团队，以进一步加快在AI领域的进展。之前隶属于Google Research的Google Services部门AI模型开发团队将作为Google DeepMind的一部分纳入Alphabet级别的活动中，预计将于2024年第二季度开始。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_89293373\" style=\"text-align: start;\">云业务增长重新提速至去年初的28%左右高位，其运营利润猛翻四倍</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分业务来看，<strong>市场最关心、被视为谷歌下一个增长引擎的云业务</strong>一季度收入同比增长28.4%至95.7亿美元，高于分析师预期的93.7亿美元。去年四季度曾增长25.7%至91.9亿美元，连续多个季度的增幅较整体营收增长翻倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这也代表谷歌云收入的同比增速重新提速，令华尔街欣喜，有效推动盘后股价飙升</strong>。2022年三季度的云收入曾同比增长37.6%，当年四季度及2023年前三季度的增幅分别放缓至32%、28%、28%和22%，而从去年四季度起重新提速，有助于缓解分析师对其增长停滞的担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，<strong>谷歌云业务的运营利润从上年同期的1.9亿美元翻了四倍多至9亿美元，</strong>持续走在扭亏为盈的正轨之上，显示多年投资终于产生可观回报。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb84cb769cc2f4af65795cfee4b0c05\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前有分析称，谷歌云业务是该公司的一个关键投资领域，随着生成式人工智能的出现，这项业务变得更加重要，因为越来越多的公司正在转向公共云来运行繁重的工作负载。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在云计算市场份额排名第三的谷歌仍在努力追赶竞争对手亚马逊和微软。谷歌云包括为企业客户提供的基础架构和数据分析平台（GCP，即谷歌云平台），以及生产力和协作工具（Google Workspace），占总营收的比重接近12%，仍与云领域的领头羊微软差距不小。</p><h2 id=\"id_1657382943\" style=\"text-align: start;\">广告收入稳健改善且全面超预期，创新业务烧钱规模同比收窄</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>核心广告业务也是华尔街密切关注的谷歌主要收入驱动力，</strong>一季度的广告收入同比增长13%至616.6亿美元，高于预期的601.8亿美元，代表从2023年开始加速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，来自YouTube视频平台的广告收入同比增近21%至80.9亿美元，高于预期的77.2亿美元。谷歌搜索及其他的广告收入同比增超14%至461.56亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这都标志着其广告收入的稳健改善，由于2022年经济疲软和来自TikTok的竞争加剧，谷歌核心广告业务曾有所减弱，但在2022年四季度公布该业务出现负增长以来，广告收入一直在改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前分析指出，生成式人工智能可以为简单的文本查询提供更有创意、更全面的答案，如果人们因此改变了在线查找信息的方式，可能会对谷歌核心的搜索和广告业务产生重大影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> “其他押注”（Other Bets）曾经是谷歌的科技创新部门，定位前瞻性的产品开发与风险投资，包括自动驾驶初创公司Waymo、智能医疗Verily、风投基金Google Capital与Google Venture等。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这项业务在一季度收入同比增近72%至4.95亿美元，高于预期的3.72亿美元，运营亏损为10.2亿美元，较上年同期的亏损逾12亿美元有所收窄，也好于市场预期的亏损11亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，谷歌服务的季度收入同比增长13.6%至704亿美元，跑赢市场预期的690亿美元，运营利润同比增超28%至接近279亿美元，显著高于市场预期的243亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab55ebe5bdee52fe1fbf4860b51e629\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1834691605\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Alphabet公司史上首次发放季度股息，额外回购至多700亿美元股票</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">推动谷歌盘后股价大涨至新高的另一个动因，是谷歌决定首次发放季度股息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Alphabet表示，董事会已批准于6月17日向截至6月10日登记在册的股东支付每股20美分的现金股息，而且“打算在未来都持续支付季度现金股息”。公司还授权额外回购700亿美元股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至一季度末，Alphabet的现金、等价物和有价证券为1080亿美元，略低于去年同期的1109亿美元。全球员工数同比减少5.1%或9800人至约18.1万人。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有分析称，也许员工数才是本次财报最重要的数字，“谷歌也（追随Meta）开启了效率之年，员工人数减少近1万人，营业利润率则从25%蹿升至32%。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9fddeaf6ea0e7731a2b7730fbc4e45b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"410\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2958424958\" style=\"text-align: start;\">最关注什么？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">人工智能前景仍是Alphabet本次财报季的关键焦点，特别是能否推动谷歌云收入的加速增长。分析师将重点关注人工智能计划和Gemini AI模型的最新进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CFRA预测2024全年谷歌云的收入增速都会保持在至少25%，有助于缓解对增长停滞的担忧。美国银行称，搜索收入强劲将有助于提振市场对AI情绪的恶化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也有分析师关注谷歌的利润率，“因为该公司未能像其他大型科技巨头那样积极削减成本”。谷歌还推出了专为数据中心定制的自研人工智能芯片Axion，这会增加AI开发支出。</p><h2 id=\"id_1375162\" style=\"text-align: start;\">华尔街怎么看？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2024年巴黎奥运会和美国总统大选都会令广告环境改善，被普遍视为支撑谷歌财报的关键力量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛称，行业趋势表明今年搜索业务的收入很强劲，YouTube收入也有所复苏。Jefferies在今年下半年继续看涨谷歌，“因为看到核心广告业务势头的改善和2025年AI助推的可见度提高”。CFRA称，云、搜索、YouTube和谷歌的其他业务“存在与人工智能货币化相关的增量机会”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，<strong>AI领域的长期竞争加剧，甚至存在颠覆谷歌核心搜索业务的风险，以及欧美监管收紧，也带来一定挑战</strong>。Bernstein称，Alphabet的任何失误都可能“敲响人工智能的警钟”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对该股评级“持有”的投行Monness Crespi Hardt称，相信Alphabet处于能够利用数字广告趋势资本化，建立持久的云业务，并利用人工智能进行创新的有利位置：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“然而，监管环境并不乐观，竞争风险也在加剧，谷歌内部的执行力参差不齐，再加上宏观经济可能陷入泥潭，也许最黑暗的日子还在前面。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Jefferies将部分不确定性归因于对新的股票回购授权和新任CFO接替Ruth Porat的猜测，后者去年称将辞任CFO并转而担任首席投资官兼总裁。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周谷歌宣布对财务部门进行重组，以便将更多资源投入人工智能领域，并将人工智能团队整合至Google DeepMind旗下，公司预言“科技行业正处于 Al 带来的巨大平台转变之中。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">KeyBanc预计，随着谷歌在AI时代更加关注产品速度和部门重组，今年第二季度可能将持续裁员，但这表明营业利润会进一步上升：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“随着Alphabet继续投资人工智能基础设施，今年的资本支出可能达到420亿美元，明年进一步增至460亿美元。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有分析称，Alphabet 在今年伊始就遭遇了一些人工智能挫折，图像生成器的问题令公司将该工具从市场上撤回。谷歌还解雇了数十名员工，后者参与了一系列针对劳动条件，以及为以色列政府和军方提供云计算与AI服务的抗议活动：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“此外，美国司法部针对谷歌搜索分发业务的诉讼，以及另一起针对其在线广告业务的诉讼也引发关注，更不用说欧洲旨在创造更具竞争力数字环境的立法，包括《数字市场法案》和即将出台的《欧盟人工智能法案》。”</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谷歌史上首次分红，Q1营收、广告、云收入均提速，盘后涨15%至新高</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌史上首次分红，Q1营收、广告、云收入均提速，盘后涨15%至新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-26 06:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713657><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>谷歌一季度收入增长两年最快，利润激增六成，押注AI的资本支出120亿美元。云业务增长重新提速至去年初的28%高位，其运营利润猛翻四倍，广告收入稳健改善。公司还在史上首次发放季度股息，将额外回购至多700亿美元股票。4月25日周四美股盘后，同样大举进军AI的全球数字广告和搜索巨头、谷歌母公司Alphabet发布了2024年一季度财报。由于广告和云收入均提速增长，各项指标全面超预期，且史上首次发放季度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713657\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f348812ea39b45cad3d64af127992eb9","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4525":"远程办公概念","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC 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SGD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713657","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"2430541642","content_text":"谷歌一季度收入增长两年最快，利润激增六成，押注AI的资本支出120亿美元。云业务增长重新提速至去年初的28%高位，其运营利润猛翻四倍，广告收入稳健改善。公司还在史上首次发放季度股息，将额外回购至多700亿美元股票。4月25日周四美股盘后，同样大举进军AI的全球数字广告和搜索巨头、谷歌母公司Alphabet发布了2024年一季度财报。由于广告和云收入均提速增长，各项指标全面超预期，且史上首次发放季度股息，Alphabet股价盘后涨超15%至历史新高，若保持到周五开盘将令市值激增约3000亿美元。周四Alphabet A类股收跌约2%，止步三日连涨，但今年累涨超11%，显著跑赢大盘涨幅，过去12个月累涨50%。由于看好核心搜索业务、YouTube广告和云领域的持续强势，华尔街对Alphabet的共识评级是“强烈买入”，其中有30位分析师建议“买入”，7人评级“持有”，没有人推荐“卖出”，平均目标价为167.51美元，代表还有9%的潜在涨幅空间。谷歌Q1收入增长提速至两年最快，利润同比激增六成，押注AI的资本支出120亿美元财报显示，谷歌母公司一季度总营收805.4亿美元，同比增长15%创2022年初以来最快增速，并高于市场预期的790.4亿美元。调整后每股收益1.89美元，远超预期的1.53美元，较上年同期的1.17美元同比激增61.5%。净利润同比跃升57%至236.6亿美元，高于预期的189.5亿美元。与去年四季度的营收863.1亿美元、EPS每股收益1.64美元、净利润206.9亿美元相比，谷歌母公司的一季度收入环比下滑，这符合市场预期，但利润意外得到提振，受益于AI带来的利好。整体来说，谷歌收入的同比指标正在加速增长，去年三季度的总营收在一年多来首次恢复两位数同比增幅，此前曾连续四个季度的增幅回落至个位数百分比，主要由于广告商的支出因通胀飙升和美联储激进加息而走弱。华尔街普遍认为，将生成式AI集成到产品中产生的人工智能需求不断增长，可能会在未来几个季度持续提振其云业务收入。同时，搜索和YouTube主导的广告收入也在随着行业趋势不断改善。当季谷歌支付给合作伙伴的流量获取成本（TAC）为129.5亿美元，超过市场预期的127.4亿美元，这一指标对利润产生影响。不过营业利润率从上年同期的25%扩张至32%，高于预期的28.6%。在备受关注的AI投资方面，谷歌当季的资本支出为120亿美元，较预期多出17亿美元。公司称，研究人员们针对大语言模型Gemini取得迅猛进展，资本开支增加，体现出在基建的投资。 谷歌正开始将AI概览部署到主要的搜索页面。首席执行官皮查伊在声明中称，Alphabet在人工智能研究和基础设施方面的领先地位以及全球产品足迹，令该公司在下一波人工智能创新浪潮中处于有利地位。其财报还称：“正如4月18日宣布的那样，我们正在整合Google Research和Google DeepMind中专注于构建人工智能模型的团队，以进一步加快在AI领域的进展。之前隶属于Google Research的Google Services部门AI模型开发团队将作为Google DeepMind的一部分纳入Alphabet级别的活动中，预计将于2024年第二季度开始。”云业务增长重新提速至去年初的28%左右高位，其运营利润猛翻四倍分业务来看，市场最关心、被视为谷歌下一个增长引擎的云业务一季度收入同比增长28.4%至95.7亿美元，高于分析师预期的93.7亿美元。去年四季度曾增长25.7%至91.9亿美元，连续多个季度的增幅较整体营收增长翻倍。这也代表谷歌云收入的同比增速重新提速，令华尔街欣喜，有效推动盘后股价飙升。2022年三季度的云收入曾同比增长37.6%，当年四季度及2023年前三季度的增幅分别放缓至32%、28%、28%和22%，而从去年四季度起重新提速，有助于缓解分析师对其增长停滞的担忧。同时，谷歌云业务的运营利润从上年同期的1.9亿美元翻了四倍多至9亿美元，持续走在扭亏为盈的正轨之上，显示多年投资终于产生可观回报。此前有分析称，谷歌云业务是该公司的一个关键投资领域，随着生成式人工智能的出现，这项业务变得更加重要，因为越来越多的公司正在转向公共云来运行繁重的工作负载。在云计算市场份额排名第三的谷歌仍在努力追赶竞争对手亚马逊和微软。谷歌云包括为企业客户提供的基础架构和数据分析平台（GCP，即谷歌云平台），以及生产力和协作工具（Google Workspace），占总营收的比重接近12%，仍与云领域的领头羊微软差距不小。广告收入稳健改善且全面超预期，创新业务烧钱规模同比收窄核心广告业务也是华尔街密切关注的谷歌主要收入驱动力，一季度的广告收入同比增长13%至616.6亿美元，高于预期的601.8亿美元，代表从2023年开始加速增长。其中，来自YouTube视频平台的广告收入同比增近21%至80.9亿美元，高于预期的77.2亿美元。谷歌搜索及其他的广告收入同比增超14%至461.56亿美元。这都标志着其广告收入的稳健改善，由于2022年经济疲软和来自TikTok的竞争加剧，谷歌核心广告业务曾有所减弱，但在2022年四季度公布该业务出现负增长以来，广告收入一直在改善。此前分析指出，生成式人工智能可以为简单的文本查询提供更有创意、更全面的答案，如果人们因此改变了在线查找信息的方式，可能会对谷歌核心的搜索和广告业务产生重大影响。 “其他押注”（Other Bets）曾经是谷歌的科技创新部门，定位前瞻性的产品开发与风险投资，包括自动驾驶初创公司Waymo、智能医疗Verily、风投基金Google Capital与Google Venture等。这项业务在一季度收入同比增近72%至4.95亿美元，高于预期的3.72亿美元，运营亏损为10.2亿美元，较上年同期的亏损逾12亿美元有所收窄，也好于市场预期的亏损11亿美元。此外，谷歌服务的季度收入同比增长13.6%至704亿美元，跑赢市场预期的690亿美元，运营利润同比增超28%至接近279亿美元，显著高于市场预期的243亿美元。Alphabet公司史上首次发放季度股息，额外回购至多700亿美元股票推动谷歌盘后股价大涨至新高的另一个动因，是谷歌决定首次发放季度股息。Alphabet表示，董事会已批准于6月17日向截至6月10日登记在册的股东支付每股20美分的现金股息，而且“打算在未来都持续支付季度现金股息”。公司还授权额外回购700亿美元股票。截至一季度末，Alphabet的现金、等价物和有价证券为1080亿美元，略低于去年同期的1109亿美元。全球员工数同比减少5.1%或9800人至约18.1万人。有分析称，也许员工数才是本次财报最重要的数字，“谷歌也（追随Meta）开启了效率之年，员工人数减少近1万人，营业利润率则从25%蹿升至32%。”最关注什么？人工智能前景仍是Alphabet本次财报季的关键焦点，特别是能否推动谷歌云收入的加速增长。分析师将重点关注人工智能计划和Gemini AI模型的最新进展。CFRA预测2024全年谷歌云的收入增速都会保持在至少25%，有助于缓解对增长停滞的担忧。美国银行称，搜索收入强劲将有助于提振市场对AI情绪的恶化。也有分析师关注谷歌的利润率，“因为该公司未能像其他大型科技巨头那样积极削减成本”。谷歌还推出了专为数据中心定制的自研人工智能芯片Axion，这会增加AI开发支出。华尔街怎么看？2024年巴黎奥运会和美国总统大选都会令广告环境改善，被普遍视为支撑谷歌财报的关键力量。高盛称，行业趋势表明今年搜索业务的收入很强劲，YouTube收入也有所复苏。Jefferies在今年下半年继续看涨谷歌，“因为看到核心广告业务势头的改善和2025年AI助推的可见度提高”。CFRA称，云、搜索、YouTube和谷歌的其他业务“存在与人工智能货币化相关的增量机会”。不过，AI领域的长期竞争加剧，甚至存在颠覆谷歌核心搜索业务的风险，以及欧美监管收紧，也带来一定挑战。Bernstein称，Alphabet的任何失误都可能“敲响人工智能的警钟”。对该股评级“持有”的投行Monness Crespi Hardt称，相信Alphabet处于能够利用数字广告趋势资本化，建立持久的云业务，并利用人工智能进行创新的有利位置：“然而，监管环境并不乐观，竞争风险也在加剧，谷歌内部的执行力参差不齐，再加上宏观经济可能陷入泥潭，也许最黑暗的日子还在前面。”Jefferies将部分不确定性归因于对新的股票回购授权和新任CFO接替Ruth Porat的猜测，后者去年称将辞任CFO并转而担任首席投资官兼总裁。上周谷歌宣布对财务部门进行重组，以便将更多资源投入人工智能领域，并将人工智能团队整合至Google DeepMind旗下，公司预言“科技行业正处于 Al 带来的巨大平台转变之中。”KeyBanc预计，随着谷歌在AI时代更加关注产品速度和部门重组，今年第二季度可能将持续裁员，但这表明营业利润会进一步上升：“随着Alphabet继续投资人工智能基础设施，今年的资本支出可能达到420亿美元，明年进一步增至460亿美元。”有分析称，Alphabet 在今年伊始就遭遇了一些人工智能挫折，图像生成器的问题令公司将该工具从市场上撤回。谷歌还解雇了数十名员工，后者参与了一系列针对劳动条件，以及为以色列政府和军方提供云计算与AI服务的抗议活动：“此外，美国司法部针对谷歌搜索分发业务的诉讼，以及另一起针对其在线广告业务的诉讼也引发关注，更不用说欧洲旨在创造更具竞争力数字环境的立法，包括《数字市场法案》和即将出台的《欧盟人工智能法案》。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298033038467232,"gmtCreate":1713790707176,"gmtModify":1713790709146,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"回调就是买入的好机会","listText":"回调就是买入的好机会","text":"回调就是买入的好机会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298033038467232","repostId":"2429940807","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2429940807","pubTimestamp":1713787003,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2429940807?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-22 19:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大摩空头罕见为美股撑腰！科技巨头业绩将成“救世主”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2429940807","media":"智通财经","summary":"“五大科技巨头”业绩增速有望高达60%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>对于美国企业能否在今年实现强劲的盈利增速，华尔街大型商业银行的股票策略师们对此存在巨大分歧。华尔街知名空头、来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的首席股票策略师Michael Wilson预计，<strong>美国企业的整体每股收益增长趋势——即标普500指数成分公司的整体每股收益将有所改善，市场预期方面，“五大科技巨头”业绩增速有望高达60%，或将是带领美股走出近期泥潭的核心推动力;但是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>的股票策略师则认为，市场给予的收益预期可能过高，以至于不及预期的业绩可能导致标普500指数继续向下深度调整。</strong></p><p>摩根士丹利的Michael Wilson带领的股票策略团队表示，随着美国经济走强，预计2024年和2025年的美国企业利润增速将明显改善，<strong>这也是“大空头”Michael Wilson自2023年以来罕见对每股收益预期持乐观展望。</strong>关于美股盈利预期的最新展望，Wilson强调，在新订单数据的支持下，美国商业活动调查的回升数据“证实了未来盈利的持续增长趋势”。</p><p>华尔街分析师的普遍预期方面，分析师们预计美国企业预计将在2024年实现更加强劲的每股收益同比增速——继去年同比增速不足1%之后，今年有望实现同比大增约8%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad3ac6ae96ffc43dfe9dc41ec8d75d\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"529\"/></p><p><strong>美国企业预计将在2024年实现更加强劲的增速——分析师们预计，继去年增长不足1%之后，今年将增长8%</strong></p><p>Wilson是2023年美股最知名看跌者之一，但是他判断失准——2023年标普500指数大幅上涨24%迈入牛市，尽管今年以来标普500指数屡创新高，但是他今年以来对美股的态度未转向乐观，同时也非像2023年那样持悲观立场，而是更加平衡。</p><p>摩根大通的策略师们则认为，通胀加剧、美元走强以及最近地缘政治紧张局势加剧给美股前景蒙上浓厚的阴影。</p><p>摩根大通策略师Mislav Matejka领导的团队在一份报告中写道:“投资者们甚至预计，与第一季度的预期水平相比，标普500指数成分公司整体的第四季度每股收益将增长近20%。”“在我们看来，这个预期门槛太高了。”</p><p><strong>在本周<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>等科技巨头财报即将公布，或将决定标普500指数在5月中下旬<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>业绩公布的基本走势，因此在投资者们近期愈发关注美股业绩数据，然而，美国股市的反弹已被美债收益率近期的飙升所破坏。</strong>在第一季度屡创新高之后，标普500指数在4月份跌超5%，由于英伟达(NVDA.US)等AI相关科技股股价暴跌，仅仅上周标普500指数的跌幅高达3%，主要因美联储官员们纷纷暗示美联储准备在更长时间内维持较高利率，加之中东地区地缘政治紧张局势重创市场风险偏好。</p><p>Wilson和Matejka这两位华尔街知名策略师均表示，<strong>推动美国股市进一步上涨的压力将是企业盈利能力，而不是利率预期。</strong></p><p>然而，Matejka表示，市场仍然表现出一些“自满”情绪，因为市场仍然没有将“明年经济下滑的重大风险”纳入定价因素。这位策略师今年仍是对美国股市最为悲观的看跌策略师之一，相比之下Wilson对于美股后市偏向中性。</p><p><strong>“考虑到企业盈利增速这一点，我们认为谨慎乐观情绪仍有理由存在。</strong>” Wilson表示。不过，他预计大部分的盈利增长速度将在今年晚些时候实现。这位策略师表示，从短期角度来看，如果美债收益率，尤其是有“全球定价之锚”称号的10年期美债收益率保持在当前水平，标普500指数将面临至多5%的跌幅。</p><p>最新投资者调查显示：美企强劲盈利即将提振美股</p><p>美国银行的一项分析显示，自1929年以来，标普500指数平均每年会经历三次5%或以上的回调，尽管最近几个月美股基本在走高，但这种跌幅并不罕见。</p><p>历史表明，一年的强劲开局之后往往会出现大幅回落，之后股市通常会自我调整并继续走高。信托顾问服务公司Truist Advisor Services的一项研究显示，标普500指数在第一季度每上涨10%或以上，就会出现11%的平均最大跌幅。不过，自1950年以来，在11次此类事件中，该指数有10次当年最终收涨。</p><p>与此同时，<strong>最新的Markets Live Pulse调查显示，参与调查的个人与机构投资者们普遍预计，乐观的美国企业财报将把标普500指数(S&amp;P 500)从最近的困境中拉出来。</strong></p><p>随着本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，意味着美股财报季进入最高潮阶段，<strong>409名受访者中有近三分之二表示，他们预计强劲的每股收益增速将提振美国股市，并且这一比例达到自2022年10月开始调查这一问题以来的最高水平。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c964d76f8f5999629306d429da665d28\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"452\"/></p><p>尽管中东紧张局势不断升级，但地缘政治风险的上升似乎并不是主要担忧。一个原因可能是，从历史上看，股市在类似的压力事件发生后会保持坚挺。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>控股多资产策略师的一项分析显示，<strong>在过去25年里，在重大地缘政治事件发生后，美国股市平均有70%的时间出现上涨。</strong></p><p><strong>Bloomberg Intelligence策略师Gina Martin Adams以及 Wendy Soong在一份最新报告中表示，财报季迄今的早期业绩数据显示，企业每股收益出超出预期，为股票走势提供了坚实的支撑。</strong></p><p>“我对这个财报季相当乐观，预计不会有什么可怕的事情发生，” Premier Miton Investors首席投资官Neil Birrell接受调查时表示。汇丰美国和拉丁美洲股票策略主管Nicole Inui在调查中表示:“第一季度财报季可能会给美国股市带来不错的支撑效应，尤其是在过去一个月出现抛售的情况下。”</p><p>财富管理公司Baker Avenue Wealth Management首席策略师King Lip表示：“<strong>回调早该出现了。我认为目前这是一次普通的调整。”Lip已开始为客户增加股票敞口，并计划在股市进一步下跌时买入更多股票。不过，他认为标普500指数可能会从3月28日的高点至多下跌10%。</strong></p><p>大型科技巨头们的业绩将成美股“救世主”?</p><p>大型科技巨头们即将发布的财报，可以说为美国股市提供了一个“扭转市场局面”的重大机遇，同时也将告知全球投资者AI对于科技行业未来业绩增速的重要程度。此前标普500指数连续三周下跌，这是自去年9月以来最长的连续下跌。</p><p>华尔街知名投资机构Wedbush的分析师Dan Ives表示，大量实地调研使得该机构对企业AI支出非常有信心<strong>，Ives预计今年人工智能支出有望占到企业IT预算的大约10%，而2023年仅不到1%。</strong>Ives表示，科技公司的盈利环境看起来仍然强劲，尤其是考虑到各大企业对人工智能的狂热情绪，这在过去一年里推动了科技股的飙升。该策略师补充道，<strong>无比强劲的财报季可能是科技股的主要积极催化剂，并预测到2024年底，该行业可能会再飙升15%。</strong></p><p>尤其值得注意的是，本周将有大约178家标普500指数成分股公司公布业绩，这些公司市值占该指数总市值的40%以上。但最大的期望还是来自大型科技公司，美股“科技七巨头”中的特斯拉(TSLA.US)、Meta(META.US)、微软(MSFT.US)、谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL.US)都将在本周公布财报。</p><p>根据机构汇编的预期统计数据，“美股七大科技巨头”(英伟达、特斯拉、Meta、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、Alphabet)第一季度每股收益同比有望飙升38%。如果剔除这七家公司，标普500指数其余公司利润预计将下降3.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec01ae6dd540a0ad4903ff01dde5cb0c\" tg-width=\"754\" tg-height=\"589\"/></p><p>此外，<strong>从对于美股2024年涨势贡献最大的“五大科技巨头”盈利预期来看，FactSet预期数据显示这些公司今年第一季度的每股收益增速有望达到惊人的64.3%。其他495家公司的收益预计将下降6%。“五大科技巨头”指的是：英伟达、亚马逊、微软、Alphabet以及Meta，如果它们的强大业绩增速能够实现，且超出市场预期，有望引领美股不断向上突破历史新高。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩空头罕见为美股撑腰！科技巨头业绩将成“救世主”？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩空头罕见为美股撑腰！科技巨头业绩将成“救世主”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-22 19:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1106840.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>对于美国企业能否在今年实现强劲的盈利增速，华尔街大型商业银行的股票策略师们对此存在巨大分歧。华尔街知名空头、来自摩根士丹利的首席股票策略师Michael Wilson预计，美国企业的整体每股收益增长趋势——即标普500指数成分公司的整体每股收益将有所改善，市场预期方面，“五大科技巨头”业绩增速有望高达60%，或将是带领美股走出近期泥潭的核心推动力;但是摩根大通的股票策略师则认为，市场给予的收益预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1106840.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","META":"Meta Platforms","MSFT":"微软","NVDA":"英伟达","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1106840.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2429940807","content_text":"对于美国企业能否在今年实现强劲的盈利增速，华尔街大型商业银行的股票策略师们对此存在巨大分歧。华尔街知名空头、来自摩根士丹利的首席股票策略师Michael Wilson预计，美国企业的整体每股收益增长趋势——即标普500指数成分公司的整体每股收益将有所改善，市场预期方面，“五大科技巨头”业绩增速有望高达60%，或将是带领美股走出近期泥潭的核心推动力;但是摩根大通的股票策略师则认为，市场给予的收益预期可能过高，以至于不及预期的业绩可能导致标普500指数继续向下深度调整。摩根士丹利的Michael Wilson带领的股票策略团队表示，随着美国经济走强，预计2024年和2025年的美国企业利润增速将明显改善，这也是“大空头”Michael Wilson自2023年以来罕见对每股收益预期持乐观展望。关于美股盈利预期的最新展望，Wilson强调，在新订单数据的支持下，美国商业活动调查的回升数据“证实了未来盈利的持续增长趋势”。华尔街分析师的普遍预期方面，分析师们预计美国企业预计将在2024年实现更加强劲的每股收益同比增速——继去年同比增速不足1%之后，今年有望实现同比大增约8%。美国企业预计将在2024年实现更加强劲的增速——分析师们预计，继去年增长不足1%之后，今年将增长8%Wilson是2023年美股最知名看跌者之一，但是他判断失准——2023年标普500指数大幅上涨24%迈入牛市，尽管今年以来标普500指数屡创新高，但是他今年以来对美股的态度未转向乐观，同时也非像2023年那样持悲观立场，而是更加平衡。摩根大通的策略师们则认为，通胀加剧、美元走强以及最近地缘政治紧张局势加剧给美股前景蒙上浓厚的阴影。摩根大通策略师Mislav Matejka领导的团队在一份报告中写道:“投资者们甚至预计，与第一季度的预期水平相比，标普500指数成分公司整体的第四季度每股收益将增长近20%。”“在我们看来，这个预期门槛太高了。”在本周特斯拉、微软谷歌等科技巨头财报即将公布，或将决定标普500指数在5月中下旬英伟达业绩公布的基本走势，因此在投资者们近期愈发关注美股业绩数据，然而，美国股市的反弹已被美债收益率近期的飙升所破坏。在第一季度屡创新高之后，标普500指数在4月份跌超5%，由于英伟达(NVDA.US)等AI相关科技股股价暴跌，仅仅上周标普500指数的跌幅高达3%，主要因美联储官员们纷纷暗示美联储准备在更长时间内维持较高利率，加之中东地区地缘政治紧张局势重创市场风险偏好。Wilson和Matejka这两位华尔街知名策略师均表示，推动美国股市进一步上涨的压力将是企业盈利能力，而不是利率预期。然而，Matejka表示，市场仍然表现出一些“自满”情绪，因为市场仍然没有将“明年经济下滑的重大风险”纳入定价因素。这位策略师今年仍是对美国股市最为悲观的看跌策略师之一，相比之下Wilson对于美股后市偏向中性。“考虑到企业盈利增速这一点，我们认为谨慎乐观情绪仍有理由存在。” Wilson表示。不过，他预计大部分的盈利增长速度将在今年晚些时候实现。这位策略师表示，从短期角度来看，如果美债收益率，尤其是有“全球定价之锚”称号的10年期美债收益率保持在当前水平，标普500指数将面临至多5%的跌幅。最新投资者调查显示：美企强劲盈利即将提振美股美国银行的一项分析显示，自1929年以来，标普500指数平均每年会经历三次5%或以上的回调，尽管最近几个月美股基本在走高，但这种跌幅并不罕见。历史表明，一年的强劲开局之后往往会出现大幅回落，之后股市通常会自我调整并继续走高。信托顾问服务公司Truist Advisor Services的一项研究显示，标普500指数在第一季度每上涨10%或以上，就会出现11%的平均最大跌幅。不过，自1950年以来，在11次此类事件中，该指数有10次当年最终收涨。与此同时，最新的Markets Live Pulse调查显示，参与调查的个人与机构投资者们普遍预计，乐观的美国企业财报将把标普500指数(S&P 500)从最近的困境中拉出来。随着本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，意味着美股财报季进入最高潮阶段，409名受访者中有近三分之二表示，他们预计强劲的每股收益增速将提振美国股市，并且这一比例达到自2022年10月开始调查这一问题以来的最高水平。尽管中东紧张局势不断升级，但地缘政治风险的上升似乎并不是主要担忧。一个原因可能是，从历史上看，股市在类似的压力事件发生后会保持坚挺。汇丰控股多资产策略师的一项分析显示，在过去25年里，在重大地缘政治事件发生后，美国股市平均有70%的时间出现上涨。Bloomberg Intelligence策略师Gina Martin Adams以及 Wendy Soong在一份最新报告中表示，财报季迄今的早期业绩数据显示，企业每股收益出超出预期，为股票走势提供了坚实的支撑。“我对这个财报季相当乐观，预计不会有什么可怕的事情发生，” Premier Miton Investors首席投资官Neil Birrell接受调查时表示。汇丰美国和拉丁美洲股票策略主管Nicole Inui在调查中表示:“第一季度财报季可能会给美国股市带来不错的支撑效应，尤其是在过去一个月出现抛售的情况下。”财富管理公司Baker Avenue Wealth Management首席策略师King Lip表示：“回调早该出现了。我认为目前这是一次普通的调整。”Lip已开始为客户增加股票敞口，并计划在股市进一步下跌时买入更多股票。不过，他认为标普500指数可能会从3月28日的高点至多下跌10%。大型科技巨头们的业绩将成美股“救世主”?大型科技巨头们即将发布的财报，可以说为美国股市提供了一个“扭转市场局面”的重大机遇，同时也将告知全球投资者AI对于科技行业未来业绩增速的重要程度。此前标普500指数连续三周下跌，这是自去年9月以来最长的连续下跌。华尔街知名投资机构Wedbush的分析师Dan Ives表示，大量实地调研使得该机构对企业AI支出非常有信心，Ives预计今年人工智能支出有望占到企业IT预算的大约10%，而2023年仅不到1%。Ives表示，科技公司的盈利环境看起来仍然强劲，尤其是考虑到各大企业对人工智能的狂热情绪，这在过去一年里推动了科技股的飙升。该策略师补充道，无比强劲的财报季可能是科技股的主要积极催化剂，并预测到2024年底，该行业可能会再飙升15%。尤其值得注意的是，本周将有大约178家标普500指数成分股公司公布业绩，这些公司市值占该指数总市值的40%以上。但最大的期望还是来自大型科技公司，美股“科技七巨头”中的特斯拉(TSLA.US)、Meta(META.US)、微软(MSFT.US)、谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL.US)都将在本周公布财报。根据机构汇编的预期统计数据，“美股七大科技巨头”(英伟达、特斯拉、Meta、微软、苹果、亚马逊、Alphabet)第一季度每股收益同比有望飙升38%。如果剔除这七家公司，标普500指数其余公司利润预计将下降3.9%。此外，从对于美股2024年涨势贡献最大的“五大科技巨头”盈利预期来看，FactSet预期数据显示这些公司今年第一季度的每股收益增速有望达到惊人的64.3%。其他495家公司的收益预计将下降6%。“五大科技巨头”指的是：英伟达、亚马逊、微软、Alphabet以及Meta，如果它们的强大业绩增速能够实现，且超出市场预期，有望引领美股不断向上突破历史新高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297139954737288,"gmtCreate":1713572755746,"gmtModify":1713572758102,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"再跌可就真出事了。","listText":"再跌可就真出事了。","text":"再跌可就真出事了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297139954737288","repostId":"297068569248032","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":297068569248032,"gmtCreate":1713555242326,"gmtModify":1713701019297,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 英伟达这760750差不多就是底部了，要是PCE证强，整个整个股市再跌，波动太大、很容易冲击美联储的路径，pass，从这个结果出发，PCE证伪比证强的概率大很多，如何真的错误、那么意外着后面就是鱼更大、证强会把所有的指标像弹簧一样压到极致、出现最极致的单边call点，而且还是大范围多板块的单边call点，出现这种情况、市场上的资金也填不了这个call点、即使美联储马上100%停止缩表，这个点会把货币市场和避险资金都吸干，财政赤字扩大或美联储再QE才能压住这个点，这种情况pass，","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 英伟达这760750差不多就是底部了，要是PCE证强，整个整个股市再跌，波动太大、很容易冲击美联储的路径，pass，从这个结果出发，PCE证伪比证强的概率大很多，如何真的错误、那么意外着后面就是鱼更大、证强会把所有的指标像弹簧一样压到极致、出现最极致的单边call点，而且还是大范围多板块的单边call点，出现这种情况、市场上的资金也填不了这个call点、即使美联储马上100%停止缩表，这个点会把货币市场和避险资金都吸干，财政赤字扩大或美联储再QE才能压住这个点，这种情况pass，","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达这760750差不多就是底部了，要是PCE证强，整个整个股市再跌，波动太大、很容易冲击美联储的路径，pass，从这个结果出发，PCE证伪比证强的概率大很多，如何真的错误、那么意外着后面就是鱼更大、证强会把所有的指标像弹簧一样压到极致、出现最极致的单边call点，而且还是大范围多板块的单边call点，出现这种情况、市场上的资金也填不了这个call点、即使美联储马上100%停止缩表，这个点会把货币市场和避险资金都吸干，财政赤字扩大或美联储再QE才能压住这个点，这种情况pass，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297068569248032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":54,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297016361640232,"gmtCreate":1713542634376,"gmtModify":1713542637894,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 凉凉","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 凉凉","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 凉凉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297016361640232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297005760004312,"gmtCreate":1713540032795,"gmtModify":1713540034592,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"确实，820是真便宜，买到就是赚到","listText":"确实，820是真便宜，买到就是赚到","text":"确实，820是真便宜，买到就是赚到","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297005760004312","repostId":"2428684267","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2428684267","pubTimestamp":1713513120,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2428684267?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-19 15:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Dominance in Computing Era Underrated by Investors, Says Analyst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428684267","media":"WallStreetZen","summary":"Evercore ISI Group's Mark Lipacis initiated their coverage on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Buy rating and a $1,160 price target.In a sector review note titled \"The Tectonic Shift in Computing to The P","content":"<html><body><div><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI Group's Mark Lipacis initiated their coverage on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Buy rating and a $1,160 price target.</p><p>In a sector review note titled \"The Tectonic Shift in Computing to The Parallel Processing Era,\" Lipacis highlighted the importance of Nvidia's chip, hardware, and software ecosystem, stating that investors tend to underestimate its significance. Lipacis argued that computing eras typically last 15 to 20 years and are dominated by a single vertically integrated ecosystem company, whose returns can range from 100 to 1000 times the initial investment.</p><p>This bullish sentiment from Lipacis is supported by the ratings of other analysts. Currently, 93.5% of top-rated analysts rate NVDA as a Strong Buy or Buy, while 6.5% see it as a Hold. Notably, no analysts recommend or strongly recommend selling the stock.</p><p>Nvidia's stock performance has been impressive in recent times. Since the company's last quarterly report on January 28, 2024, the stock price has surged by 43.2%. Looking at the year-over-year figures, NVDA is up a staggering 223.7%. These numbers clearly demonstrate that Nvidia has outpaced the broader market, with the S&amp;P 500 only showing a 21.7% increase over the same period.</p><p>Mark Lipacis, the Evercore ISI Group analyst behind this coverage initiation, has a strong track record. WallStreetZen ranks Lipacis in the top 5% out of 4,551 Wall Street analysts, with an average return of 23.8% and an impressive win rate of 47.4%. Lipacis specializes in the Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, and Technology sectors.</p><p>Nvidia, headquartered in Santa Clara, California, is a leading provider of graphics, compute, and networking solutions. The company's Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, as well as related infrastructure and services. Additionally, Nvidia's Compute &amp; Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing, among other offerings. The company's products find applications in gaming, professional visualization, data centers, and automotive markets.</p><p>Nvidia's strategic collaborations and partnerships have further bolstered its position in the industry. For instance, the company has a collaboration agreement with Kroger Co., a notable player in the retail sector.</p></div></body></html>","source":"wallstreetzen_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Dominance in Computing Era Underrated by Investors, Says Analyst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Dominance in Computing Era Underrated by Investors, Says Analyst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-19 15:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wallstreetzen.com/news/nvidia-s-dominance-in-computing-era-underrated-by-investors-says-analyst><strong>WallStreetZen</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Evercore ISI Group's Mark Lipacis initiated their coverage on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Buy rating and a $1,160 price target.In a sector review note titled \"The Tectonic Shift in Computing to The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wallstreetzen.com/news/nvidia-s-dominance-in-computing-era-underrated-by-investors-says-analyst\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1520520688967-7bdc16e77dc2?crop=entropy&cs=tinysrgb&fit=crop&fm=jpg&ixid=M3w0NDY2OTN8MHwxfGFsbHx8fHx8fHx8fDE2ODc2NjU2Nzd8&ixlib=rb-4.0.3&q=80&w=260&utm_source=wallstreetzen&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=api-credit&h=180","relate_stocks":{"BK4543":"AI","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","ISBC":"投资者银行","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0494093205.USD":"贝莱德ESG灵活多元资产A2 USD-H","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4211":"区域性银行","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.wallstreetzen.com/news/nvidia-s-dominance-in-computing-era-underrated-by-investors-says-analyst","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2428684267","content_text":"Evercore ISI Group's Mark Lipacis initiated their coverage on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Buy rating and a $1,160 price target.In a sector review note titled \"The Tectonic Shift in Computing to The Parallel Processing Era,\" Lipacis highlighted the importance of Nvidia's chip, hardware, and software ecosystem, stating that investors tend to underestimate its significance. Lipacis argued that computing eras typically last 15 to 20 years and are dominated by a single vertically integrated ecosystem company, whose returns can range from 100 to 1000 times the initial investment.This bullish sentiment from Lipacis is supported by the ratings of other analysts. Currently, 93.5% of top-rated analysts rate NVDA as a Strong Buy or Buy, while 6.5% see it as a Hold. Notably, no analysts recommend or strongly recommend selling the stock.Nvidia's stock performance has been impressive in recent times. Since the company's last quarterly report on January 28, 2024, the stock price has surged by 43.2%. Looking at the year-over-year figures, NVDA is up a staggering 223.7%. These numbers clearly demonstrate that Nvidia has outpaced the broader market, with the S&P 500 only showing a 21.7% increase over the same period.Mark Lipacis, the Evercore ISI Group analyst behind this coverage initiation, has a strong track record. WallStreetZen ranks Lipacis in the top 5% out of 4,551 Wall Street analysts, with an average return of 23.8% and an impressive win rate of 47.4%. Lipacis specializes in the Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, and Technology sectors.Nvidia, headquartered in Santa Clara, California, is a leading provider of graphics, compute, and networking solutions. The company's Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, as well as related infrastructure and services. Additionally, Nvidia's Compute & Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing, among other offerings. The company's products find applications in gaming, professional visualization, data centers, and automotive markets.Nvidia's strategic collaborations and partnerships have further bolstered its position in the industry. For instance, the company has a collaboration agreement with Kroger Co., a notable player in the retail sector.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297003511341384,"gmtCreate":1713539362698,"gmtModify":1713539364552,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"英伟达订单持续增加，供不应求","listText":"英伟达订单持续增加，供不应求","text":"英伟达订单持续增加，供不应求","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297003511341384","repostId":"2428633857","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2428633857","pubTimestamp":1713516420,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2428633857?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-19 16:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"传微软计划在年底前囤积180万个AI芯片","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428633857","media":"C114通信网","summary":"根据海外一份文件显示，微软内部设立目标，在2024年底前囤积180万个人工智能芯片。文件显示，微软计划在2024年将GPU数量增加两倍。两位消息人士称，从本财年到2027财年，微软预计将在GPU和数据中心上花费约1000亿美元。Meta CEO扎克伯格今年早些时候在社交媒体表示，该公司将在2024年购买约35万个英伟达H100 GPU，到年底将持有约60万个同型号或同类AI芯片。尽管微软内部正努力设计自己的AI芯片，但一些人对此持怀疑态度，因为其技术落后于英伟达多年。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20240419164845834v206omri7mb43d3\"/><p>根据海外一份文件显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>内部设立目标，在2024年底前囤积180万个人工智能（AI）芯片。微软正试图让生成式AI变得更快、更好，但主要依赖<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的GPU芯片。文件显示，微软计划在2024年将GPU数量增加两倍。</p><p>微软一直与OpenAI公司合作发展人工智能，但要想在该领域保持领先，代价不菲。两位消息人士称，从本财年到2027财年，微软预计将在GPU和数据中心上花费约1000亿美元。</p><p>微软发言人Frank Shaw拒绝对此消息发表评论，理由是上市公司在公布财报前存在静默期。</p><p>其他科技巨头公司也在建立庞大的GPU储备，这也是英伟达市值在短时间内迅速增至2万亿美元的关键原因。Meta CEO扎克伯格今年早些时候在社交媒体表示，该公司将在2024年购买约35万个英伟达H100 GPU，到年底将持有约60万个同型号或同类AI芯片。</p><p>根据研究机构DA Davidson分析师估算，微软2023年在英伟达芯片上花费了45亿美元，一位微软高管表示，这一数字与实际情况相差无几。尽管微软内部正努力设计自己的AI芯片，但一些人对此持怀疑态度，因为其技术落后于英伟达多年。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>传微软计划在年底前囤积180万个AI芯片</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n传微软计划在年底前囤积180万个AI芯片\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-19 16:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202404191648508b3a418b&s=b><strong>C114通信网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>根据海外一份文件显示，微软内部设立目标，在2024年底前囤积180万个人工智能（AI）芯片。微软正试图让生成式AI变得更快、更好，但主要依赖英伟达的GPU芯片。文件显示，微软计划在2024年将GPU数量增加两倍。微软一直与OpenAI公司合作发展人工智能，但要想在该领域保持领先，代价不菲。两位消息人士称，从本财年到2027财年，微软预计将在GPU和数据中心上花费约1000亿美元。微软发言人...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202404191648508b3a418b&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4577":"网络游戏","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4538":"云计算","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity 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USD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","MSFT":"微软","BK4516":"特朗普概念","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0494093205.USD":"贝莱德ESG灵活多元资产A2 USD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0171293334.USD":"贝莱德英国基金A2","BK4576":"AR","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202404191648508b3a418b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2428633857","content_text":"根据海外一份文件显示，微软内部设立目标，在2024年底前囤积180万个人工智能（AI）芯片。微软正试图让生成式AI变得更快、更好，但主要依赖英伟达的GPU芯片。文件显示，微软计划在2024年将GPU数量增加两倍。微软一直与OpenAI公司合作发展人工智能，但要想在该领域保持领先，代价不菲。两位消息人士称，从本财年到2027财年，微软预计将在GPU和数据中心上花费约1000亿美元。微软发言人Frank Shaw拒绝对此消息发表评论，理由是上市公司在公布财报前存在静默期。其他科技巨头公司也在建立庞大的GPU储备，这也是英伟达市值在短时间内迅速增至2万亿美元的关键原因。Meta CEO扎克伯格今年早些时候在社交媒体表示，该公司将在2024年购买约35万个英伟达H100 GPU，到年底将持有约60万个同型号或同类AI芯片。根据研究机构DA Davidson分析师估算，微软2023年在英伟达芯片上花费了45亿美元，一位微软高管表示，这一数字与实际情况相差无几。尽管微软内部正努力设计自己的AI芯片，但一些人对此持怀疑态度，因为其技术落后于英伟达多年。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296661476413688,"gmtCreate":1713464806232,"gmtModify":1713464807864,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好文章","listText":"好文章","text":"好文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296661476413688","repostId":"2428183045","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2428183045","pubTimestamp":1713450880,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2428183045?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-18 22:34","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"但斌：怎样才能赚到现象级的钱？英伟达的调整只是短期现象","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428183045","media":"格隆汇","summary":"颠覆性的变化才刚刚开始","content":"<html><body><p><strong>4月18日下午，东方港湾董事长但斌在一场线上交流中，分享了自己对人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>行业的最新观点。</strong></p><p><strong><span>但斌表示，如果要说投资有什么核心密码的话，那么有三个：</span></strong></p><p><span>第一，投资要寻找主因；</span></p><p><span>第二，投资于那些能够改变世界的公司，以及那些不会被世界改变的公司；</span></p><p><span>第三，选择轻资产、高盈利的商业模式。</span></p><p><span>到目前为止，从战略选择的角度来看，在全球范围内，真正能够创造巨大产业机会的，可能只有人工智能。</span></p><p><span>从研究团队的设置上，东方港湾从去年开始，就仅保留了在医药、消费和工业方向上的少数研究员，其余的十余位研究员都转向了人工智能方向。</span></p><p><strong><span>但斌戏称，东方港湾对人工智能是All in式的投入。</span></strong></p><p><span>对人工智能的投资也使得东方港湾过去一段时间取得了丰硕的成果——</span></p><p><span>东方港湾旗下的海外基金，近期创出历史新高；</span></p><p><span>在去年全年获得了42%的回报，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>排名的全球近1万支基金中位列第二。</span></p><p><span>而从技术革命的角度来讲，此前的电子硬件时代、互联网时代和移动互联网时代过程中，胜出的公司在此期间市值增长了超过10倍。</span></p><p><span>如果这一规律延续，在AI时代，很有可能人类历史上会出现第一家市值达到10万亿美元的公司。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/259f0-b2012d6c-9af5-4d0f-98a6-e957e631ba78.jpg?guru_height=538&amp;guru_width=1080\"/></p><p><span><strong><span>本文精选了但斌分享的精华内容如下：</span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span><span><strong><span>1.</span></strong></span>事实上，AI基础层公司的估值并不特别高。</span></strong></p><p>以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>为例，根据今年的业绩预测，其市盈率大约是30倍，明年可能会降至20倍。</p><p><span>英伟达的毛利率约为74%，净利润率为49%，这意味着，如果有2000亿美元的收入，可能会有1000亿美元的净利润。</span></p><p>虽然<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>看起来有点贵，但我们预测微软未来五年的利润可能会增长一倍。</p><p><strong><span><strong><span>2.</span></strong></span></strong><strong><span>想要赚到大钱，应该持有什么？</span></strong></p><p>那就是持有一家公司从成长股到价值股的整个过程，并用产业结构的视角去持有它。</p><p>只有这样，你才能赚到现象级的钱。</p><p><strong><span><strong><span><strong><span>3.</span></strong></span></strong>最近，比如英伟达和其他一些AI相关公司的股票有所调整。</span></strong></p><p>但坦白说，在历史的长河中，这只是短期现象。</p><p><span>我之前写过一篇文章，探讨为什么大多数人会错失一个时代。</span></p><p><span>在投资一个行业的过程当中，我们也可能会被一些次要因素所干扰。</span></p><p>忽略这些短期变化，实际上，从产业的角度来看，人工智能目前仍然是在爆发的第一天。</p><p><strong><span><strong><span><strong><span><strong><span>4.</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong>当移动互联网刚开始时，像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、Facebook等公司，虽然已经是大公司，它们的总市值加起来是5000亿美元。</span></strong></p><p>但随后，这些公司的市值增长了12倍……</p><p>虽然我们不知道第四次技术革命是否会打破这一规律，但我认为延续的可能性仍然很大。</p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">资本市场真正的</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">决定因素是技术进步</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>总结来说，资本市场的真正决定因素是什么？</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>是技术进步。</span></strong></p><p><span>技术进步带来的财富增长、市值提升和企业盈利增加，是更为关键的决策因素，其重要性超过了利率的升降。</span></p><p><span>最近几天，由于经济数据表现良好，许多人认为今年可能不会降息，</span></p><p><span>这导致资本市场承受了一定的压力。</span></p><p><span>尽管如此，我们的决策依据并未改变，</span></p><p><span>但大多数人的决策，还是基于这种短期或次要因素。</span></p><p><span>短期，这些因素当然会有影响，但从长远来看，它只是次要的。</span></p><p><strong><span>如果我们从年度表现来看，技术进步的影响要深远得多。</span></strong></p><p><span>实际上，东方港湾在2021年-2022年期间，包括2023年，也面临了挑战，业绩出现了一定程度的下滑，表现并不理想。</span></p><p><span>在这一表现不佳的时期，东方港湾决定对10亿以下的产品不收取管理费，每年放弃一亿的收入，希望与客户共同面对挑战。</span></p><p><span>当然，东方港湾希望能够通过自身的努力来扭转当前的局面。</span></p><p><span>东方港湾已经成立了20年，回想起2004年成立之初，我们正处在移动互联网时代的浪潮中。</span></p><p><strong><span>我曾与同事们讨论，如果我们当时清楚地认识到移动互联网时代的到来，我们的投资策略会是怎样？</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>我们可能甚至不会投资龙头白酒公司，</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>而应该投资像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>这样具有创新商业模式的公司，因为它们可能带来的收益远超龙头白酒。</span></strong></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">人工智能时代</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">可能也将持续10年以上</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>去年，我们又迎来了一个新的时代——人工智能时代。</span></strong></p><p><span>2004年，我37岁创立东方港湾，到现在我已经57岁了。</span></p><p><span>投资是一个经验积累的行业，与许多其他行业不同。</span></p><p><span>在其他行业，到了我这个年龄可能就该考虑退休了。</span></p><p><span>但在投资行业，经验积累至关重要。</span></p><p><span>到了现在这个年龄，我认为在做决策时应该比年轻时更加敏锐、坚定和具有洞察力，更加充满热情地做出这样的决策。</span></p><p><span>自去年以来，我们制定了这样的战略，</span></p><p><span>东方港湾一直在全力以赴地迎接人工智能时代的到来。</span></p><p><strong><span>我们观察到，在过去的三个时代中，每个时代都持续了十年以上的发展。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>如果我们将去年视为这一时代的元年，那么这个机会很可能会持续10年以上。</span></strong></p><p><span>既然我们认同，人工智能时代是比之前的电子硬件时代、互联网时代和移动互联网时代、更具有无限潜力的技术革命，</span></p><p><span>那么，它创造的财富应该会更多。</span></p><p><span>在前三个时代中，我们观察到，每个时代的增长几乎都是十倍的乘数效应。</span></p><p><span>我们也有数据支持这一点，</span></p><p><span>我们可以预见，如果这一规律持续下去，那么在大约十年后，我们很可能会看到第一家市值达到10万亿美元的公司。</span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">投资的三大核心密码</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">寻找主因是第一条</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数在过去98年的年化收益率约为5.96%，它呈现了相对长的牛市趋势——牛市较长而熊市相对较短。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>在一个长期向好的市场中，长期投资的收益实际上是最高的，这与短期投机是完全不同的。</span></strong></p><p><span>投资的第一个原则是寻找主因。</span></p><p><span>这里的主要因素就是技术进步。</span></p><p><strong><span>投资还有第二个原则的话，那就是，投资于那些能够改变世界和那些不会被世界改变的公司。</span></strong></p><p><span>如果我们将这句话视为投资的第二个核心密码，那么我们会发现，符合这两个方向的公司实际上非常少。</span></p><p><strong><span>那些不会被世界改变的公司，仔细思考后，你会发现，这样的公司并不多，比如龙头白酒、爱马仕、路易威登等。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>除非文化发生改变，否则这些公司很难被改变。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>而那些能够改变世界的公司就更少了，</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>实际上全球范围内，能够真正改变世界的公司寥寥无几。</span></strong></p><p><span>因此，如果你根据这两个方向来构建投资组合，那么你选择的公司数量应该很少，非常少。</span></p><p><span>当然，我们的投资组合曾经历了较大的回撤，这是因为我们投资了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉是不是一家改变世界的公司？</span></p><p><span>毫无疑问，它是。</span></p><p><strong><span>东方港湾是从特斯拉股价大约30美元时，就开始研究这家公司，</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>后来在股价大约90美元时大量买入，包括在疫情期间，特斯拉也为我们带来了收益。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>但在前年，由于我们对特斯拉的投资较多，它有比较大的回撤。</span></strong></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">轻资产和高盈利</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">抗风险能力更强</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>从我们自身的角度来看，还有第三个核心原则，那就是轻资产和高盈利。</span></strong></p><p><span>尽管特斯拉是一家改变世界的公司，我至今仍然很看好它的长期前景，</span></p><p><span>但在特斯拉实现无人驾驶和人形<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>技术之前，它仍然是一家重资产的汽车公司。</span></p><p><span>众所周知，重资产公司的毛利率和净利率，往往较大地受到宏观经济波动的影响，其竞争格局也容易受到重大影响。</span></p><p><span>与之相比，轻资产、高盈利的公司，包括平台型公司，相对来说抗风险能力更强。</span></p><p><span>因此，如果要说投资有什么核心密码的话，我认为有三个：</span></p><p><span>第一，投资要寻找主因；</span></p><p><span>第二，投资于那些能够改变世界的公司，以及那些不会被世界改变的公司；</span></p><p><span>第三，选择轻资产、高盈利的商业模式。</span></p><p><strong><span>实际上，从2008年东方港湾吃到大亏以后，</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>我们基本上放弃了在依赖杠杆的商业模式中的投资，比如房地产、保险和银行业。</span></strong></p><p><span>在经济危机中，这些依赖杠杆的商业模式很容易出现问题。</span></p><p><span>到目前为止，从战略选择的角度来看，在全球范围内，真正能够创造巨大产业机会的，可能只有人工智能。</span></p><p><span>我们为什么以美国的人工智能公司作为首选呢？</span></p><p><span>因为人工智能行业需要巨大的投入，以及潜在的技术优势。</span></p><p><span>遗憾的是，华为不上市。</span></p><p><span>如果华为上市，我们肯定会重仓投资华为这样领先的人工智能公司。</span></p><p><strong><span>以全球七大科技公司为例，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>去年的研发投入高达856亿美元，谷歌也投入了超过450亿美元。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>此外，前天发布的消息是，它宣布计划在人工智能领域再投资1000亿美元。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>微软在近两年的研发投入均为270多亿美元，虽然看似增长不大，但它也宣布将投资1000亿美元。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>苹果公司去年的研发投入接近300亿美元，今年的投资额更多。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>预计今年亚马逊的研发投入也将超过1000亿美元。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>我们看到，已经有三家公司的投资超过了1000亿美元。</span></strong></p><p><span>华为去年的研发投入大约是1000多亿人民币，这可能比微软去年的研发投入还要少一些。</span></p><p><span>此外，奥尔特曼（OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman）说将投资7万亿美元——这相当于日本和德国GDP之和，用于投资芯片和人工智能领域。</span></p><p><span>所以我们看到的是，人工智能行业需要巨额的资金投入，这是一个竞争激烈的行业。</span></p><p><span>这有点像所谓的“缩放理论”，即在投资未达到某个临界点之前，技术可能很弱。</span></p><p><span>但一旦突破，如果摩尔定律没有达到上限，就需要继续投资。</span></p><p><span>竞争的格局迫使这些大公司不断投入，否则就有被淘汰的风险。</span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">OpenAI的上市</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">可能意味着泡沫的出现</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>人工智能的商业模式特征，是高投入和巨额投资，</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>最终胜出的大概率很可能还是那些能够持续投入的公司——与移动互联网时代的结果一样。</span></strong></p><p><span>目前，我们的关注点仍然集中在那些能够进行巨额投资的公司，尤其是那些专注于AI基础层的公司。</span></p><p><strong><span>事实上，AI基础层公司的估值并不特别高。</span></strong></p><p><span>以英伟达为例，根据今年的业绩预测，其市盈率大约是30倍，明年可能会降至20倍。</span></p><p><span>英伟达的毛利率约为74%，净利润率为49%，这意味着，如果有2000亿美元的收入，可能会有1000亿美元的净利润。</span></p><p><span>虽然微软看起来有点贵，但我们预测微软未来五年的利润可能会增长一倍。</span></p><p><span>像Meta、谷歌、苹果，它们的市盈率都在20多倍。</span></p><p><span>苹果每年还有900亿美元的股票回购，回购后这些股票就会被注销。</span></p><p><span>想象一下，如果苹果持续回购股票10年……</span></p><p><span>Meta也宣布了500亿美元的股票回购。</span></p><p><span>同样，英伟达在去年7月股价最高点时，也宣布了270亿美元的股票回购计划。</span></p><p><span>我们还看到，人工智能的发展可能会带来像亚马逊这样的公司变革，因为它的人力投入是比较大的。</span></p><p><span>人形机器人技术发展，可能会使其成本急剧下降——</span></p><p><strong><span>此外，与许多公司相比，这些公司最大的不同之处，在于它们拥有第二增长曲线和第三增长曲线。</span></strong></p><p><span>以微软为例，它从最初的Windows操作系统发展到云计算，现在又进入了人工智能领域。</span></p><p><span>实际上已经经历了第二增长阶段和第三增长阶段，甚至可以说是第四增长阶段。</span></p><p><span>包括今年表现不佳的特斯拉，</span></p><p><span>它在无人驾驶和人形机器人技术上的投入，预示着它的第二增长和第三增长。</span></p><p><span>同样，尽管今年苹果的表现也不是很好，但就像从功能手机向智能手机的转变，</span></p><p><span>如果能够再到AI手机的转变，那么很可能在明年或者今年年底，迎来AI手机的换机潮，这可能会为苹果带来新的增长极。</span></p><p><strong><span>任何一个泡沫的破裂，通常都会有一些标志性的变化。</span></strong></p><p><span>在互联网时代，一个带有.com后缀的公司上市并被爆炒时，这可能就是泡沫的一个标志。</span></p><p><strong><span>目前，OpenAI尚未上市，我预计OpenAI的上市，可能会成为人工智能时代的一个标志性事件。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>假设OpenAI上市时的市值是2000亿或3000亿美元，如果它的市值能够增长到1万亿美元，那么这可能会引发一波AI公司的上市热潮。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>届时AI公司可能会被爆炒，这可能就标志着一个泡沫阶段的到来。</span></strong></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">人类社会再次</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">达到了一个临界点</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>目前，还是刚开始，我们对人工智能的关注，主要集中在AI基础层这一方向，</span></strong></p><p><span>我们还没有向AI的垂直应用领域扩展，尽管这个领域也存在很多机会。</span></p><p><span>此外，从长期来看，我们试图观察科技革命的影响。</span></p><p><span>无论是人口结构还是财富增长，在过去几千年的变化中，技术革命是投资中最核心的要素。</span></p><p><span>它是一种根本性的变革。</span></p><p><span>在人类历史上，真正引起社会指数级变化的是蒸汽机时代的开始。</span></p><p><span>现在我们进入了什么时代呢？</span></p><p><span>那就是人工智能时代。</span></p><p><span>人工智能时代的变化，在某种程度上类似于蒸汽机对人类社会的影响。</span></p><p><strong><span>人类社会再次达到了一个临界点。</span></strong></p><p><span>从长期来看，互联网，自90年代以来，以腾讯为例，它已经从一个成长股转变为价值股，经历了几十年的演变。</span></p><p><span>同样，自2005年以来，智能手机行业也经历了几十年的变化，苹果公司总体上也从成长股转变为价值股。</span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">持有一家公司从成长股</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">到价值股的整个过程</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>我最近写了一篇短文，我说，如果想要赚到大钱，应该持有什么？</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>那就是持有一家公司从成长股到价值股的整个过程，并用产业结构的视角去持有它。</span></strong></p><p><span>这种持有通常需要十年、二十年的时间。</span></p><p><span>因为只有这样，你才能赚到现象级的钱。</span></p><p><span>如果你想要赚到上百倍的钱、现象级的钱，</span></p><p><span>你就一定要从产业的角度去持有一个完整的周期，即从成长股到价值股的过程。</span></p><p><span>我们现在仅仅处于AI技术爆发的第一天。</span></p><p><strong><span>最近，比如英伟达和其他一些AI相关公司的股票有所调整。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>但坦白说，在历史的长河中，这只是短期现象。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>我之前写过一篇文章，探讨为什么大多数人会错失一个时代。</span></strong></p><p><span>这个时代的变革雷声滚滚，在投资一个行业的过程当中，我们也可能会被一些次要因素所干扰。</span></p><p><span>比如，最近有关英伟达与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>的争论，这种讨论当然是有益的，但也可能影响你的判断。</span></p><p><span>从产业的角度来看，如果你忽略这些短期变化，如果我们从长期视角来看，</span></p><p><strong><span>实际上，从产业的角度来看，人工智能目前仍然是在爆发的第一天。</span></strong></p><p><span>我们可以看到，在前几次技术革命浪潮中，都产生了许多大型应用。</span></p><p><span>以互联网为例，随着互联网的到来，像亚马逊、Netflix、谷歌和Facebook等公司都取得了巨大的成功。</span></p><p><span>同样，在智能手机时代，也涌现出了种种创新应用。</span></p><p><span>我们认为，投资一定要有一种持续学习和迭代的精神，否则你可能会很遗憾。</span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">颠覆性的变化</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">才刚刚开始</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span>实际上，未来AI医生也是一个发展方向。</span></p><p><span>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">诺华</a>诺德投资了8800万美元与英伟达合作，这涉及到医药研发。</span></p><p><span>ChatGPT技术出来以后，我有一个朋友在美国一家动漫公司工作，</span></p><p><span>他看到AI技术后表示，这项技术颠覆了他从本科到研究生所学的专业，他认为自己的专业知识已经过时了。</span></p><p><span>当Sora技术出现时，他认为电影工业将会经历一场变革。</span></p><p><span>不久前，另一位朋友从美国回来，他提到即使是全球顶尖的卡内基梅隆大学计算机专业的学生，过去通常是还没毕业就拿到了Offer，但去年这个专业有一半的毕业生找不到工作。</span></p><p><span>有些学校的一些计算机课程甚至被取消。</span></p><p><strong><span>我们可以看到，这种颠覆性的变化才刚刚开始。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>我们再来看互联网，在过去的几次技术革命中，实际上都带来了超过10倍的变化。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>以移动互联网时代为例，当移动互联网刚开始时，像苹果、谷歌、Facebook等公司，虽然已经是大公司，它们的总市值加起来是5000亿美元。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>但随后，这些公司的市值增长了12倍。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>在之前的几次技术革命中，相关公司的市值也都增长了10倍以上。</span></strong></p><p><span>因此，我刚才提到，很有可能人类会出现第一家市值达到10万亿美元的公司。</span></p><p><span>因为在过去的三次技术革命中，这一规律一直存在。</span></p><p><span>虽然我们不知道第四次革命是否会打破这一规律，但我认为这一规律继续延续的可能性仍然很大。</span></p><p><span>另外，在过去的50年里，我们看到的是GPU和软件的结合，生产出了越来越快的计算机。</span></p><p><span>那么在未来50年，我们将看到的是GPU加上AI模型，这将等同于超级智能大脑，这是未来50年的变革。</span></p><p><span>包括我们看到马斯克的脑机接口技术，它让一位瘫痪的年轻人通过植入芯片就能玩游戏。</span></p><p><strong><span>目前，我认为人工智能造福人类的可能性相当大。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>作为投资者，在这样一个变革的时代，东方港湾全力以赴地迎接这个时代的到来。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>从某种意义上说，东方港湾现在就像是一家人工智能公司，我们正全力以赴地朝这个方向前进。</span></strong></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>但斌：怎样才能赚到现象级的钱？英伟达的调整只是短期现象</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n但斌：怎样才能赚到现象级的钱？英伟达的调整只是短期现象\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-18 22:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/721121><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月18日下午，东方港湾董事长但斌在一场线上交流中，分享了自己对人工智能行业的最新观点。但斌表示，如果要说投资有什么核心密码的话，那么有三个：第一，投资要寻找主因；第二，投资于那些能够改变世界的公司，以及那些不会被世界改变的公司；第三，选择轻资产、高盈利的商业模式。到目前为止，从战略选择的角度来看，在全球范围内，真正能够创造巨大产业机会的，可能只有人工智能。从研究团队的设置上，东方港湾从去年开始，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/721121\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1c07b-1d65aefd-dff1-4323-9882-374c009f155b.jpg?guru_height=870&guru_width=1280","relate_stocks":{"IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH 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Acc","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/721121","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2428183045","content_text":"4月18日下午，东方港湾董事长但斌在一场线上交流中，分享了自己对人工智能行业的最新观点。但斌表示，如果要说投资有什么核心密码的话，那么有三个：第一，投资要寻找主因；第二，投资于那些能够改变世界的公司，以及那些不会被世界改变的公司；第三，选择轻资产、高盈利的商业模式。到目前为止，从战略选择的角度来看，在全球范围内，真正能够创造巨大产业机会的，可能只有人工智能。从研究团队的设置上，东方港湾从去年开始，就仅保留了在医药、消费和工业方向上的少数研究员，其余的十余位研究员都转向了人工智能方向。但斌戏称，东方港湾对人工智能是All in式的投入。对人工智能的投资也使得东方港湾过去一段时间取得了丰硕的成果——东方港湾旗下的海外基金，近期创出历史新高；在去年全年获得了42%的回报，在摩根士丹利排名的全球近1万支基金中位列第二。而从技术革命的角度来讲，此前的电子硬件时代、互联网时代和移动互联网时代过程中，胜出的公司在此期间市值增长了超过10倍。如果这一规律延续，在AI时代，很有可能人类历史上会出现第一家市值达到10万亿美元的公司。本文精选了但斌分享的精华内容如下：1.事实上，AI基础层公司的估值并不特别高。以英伟达为例，根据今年的业绩预测，其市盈率大约是30倍，明年可能会降至20倍。英伟达的毛利率约为74%，净利润率为49%，这意味着，如果有2000亿美元的收入，可能会有1000亿美元的净利润。虽然微软看起来有点贵，但我们预测微软未来五年的利润可能会增长一倍。2.想要赚到大钱，应该持有什么？那就是持有一家公司从成长股到价值股的整个过程，并用产业结构的视角去持有它。只有这样，你才能赚到现象级的钱。3.最近，比如英伟达和其他一些AI相关公司的股票有所调整。但坦白说，在历史的长河中，这只是短期现象。我之前写过一篇文章，探讨为什么大多数人会错失一个时代。在投资一个行业的过程当中，我们也可能会被一些次要因素所干扰。忽略这些短期变化，实际上，从产业的角度来看，人工智能目前仍然是在爆发的第一天。4.当移动互联网刚开始时，像苹果、谷歌、Facebook等公司，虽然已经是大公司，它们的总市值加起来是5000亿美元。但随后，这些公司的市值增长了12倍……虽然我们不知道第四次技术革命是否会打破这一规律，但我认为延续的可能性仍然很大。资本市场真正的决定因素是技术进步总结来说，资本市场的真正决定因素是什么？是技术进步。技术进步带来的财富增长、市值提升和企业盈利增加，是更为关键的决策因素，其重要性超过了利率的升降。最近几天，由于经济数据表现良好，许多人认为今年可能不会降息，这导致资本市场承受了一定的压力。尽管如此，我们的决策依据并未改变，但大多数人的决策，还是基于这种短期或次要因素。短期，这些因素当然会有影响，但从长远来看，它只是次要的。如果我们从年度表现来看，技术进步的影响要深远得多。实际上，东方港湾在2021年-2022年期间，包括2023年，也面临了挑战，业绩出现了一定程度的下滑，表现并不理想。在这一表现不佳的时期，东方港湾决定对10亿以下的产品不收取管理费，每年放弃一亿的收入，希望与客户共同面对挑战。当然，东方港湾希望能够通过自身的努力来扭转当前的局面。东方港湾已经成立了20年，回想起2004年成立之初，我们正处在移动互联网时代的浪潮中。我曾与同事们讨论，如果我们当时清楚地认识到移动互联网时代的到来，我们的投资策略会是怎样？我们可能甚至不会投资龙头白酒公司，而应该投资像腾讯这样具有创新商业模式的公司，因为它们可能带来的收益远超龙头白酒。人工智能时代可能也将持续10年以上去年，我们又迎来了一个新的时代——人工智能时代。2004年，我37岁创立东方港湾，到现在我已经57岁了。投资是一个经验积累的行业，与许多其他行业不同。在其他行业，到了我这个年龄可能就该考虑退休了。但在投资行业，经验积累至关重要。到了现在这个年龄，我认为在做决策时应该比年轻时更加敏锐、坚定和具有洞察力，更加充满热情地做出这样的决策。自去年以来，我们制定了这样的战略，东方港湾一直在全力以赴地迎接人工智能时代的到来。我们观察到，在过去的三个时代中，每个时代都持续了十年以上的发展。如果我们将去年视为这一时代的元年，那么这个机会很可能会持续10年以上。既然我们认同，人工智能时代是比之前的电子硬件时代、互联网时代和移动互联网时代、更具有无限潜力的技术革命，那么，它创造的财富应该会更多。在前三个时代中，我们观察到，每个时代的增长几乎都是十倍的乘数效应。我们也有数据支持这一点，我们可以预见，如果这一规律持续下去，那么在大约十年后，我们很可能会看到第一家市值达到10万亿美元的公司。投资的三大核心密码寻找主因是第一条标普500指数在过去98年的年化收益率约为5.96%，它呈现了相对长的牛市趋势——牛市较长而熊市相对较短。在一个长期向好的市场中，长期投资的收益实际上是最高的，这与短期投机是完全不同的。投资的第一个原则是寻找主因。这里的主要因素就是技术进步。投资还有第二个原则的话，那就是，投资于那些能够改变世界和那些不会被世界改变的公司。如果我们将这句话视为投资的第二个核心密码，那么我们会发现，符合这两个方向的公司实际上非常少。那些不会被世界改变的公司，仔细思考后，你会发现，这样的公司并不多，比如龙头白酒、爱马仕、路易威登等。除非文化发生改变，否则这些公司很难被改变。而那些能够改变世界的公司就更少了，实际上全球范围内，能够真正改变世界的公司寥寥无几。因此，如果你根据这两个方向来构建投资组合，那么你选择的公司数量应该很少，非常少。当然，我们的投资组合曾经历了较大的回撤，这是因为我们投资了特斯拉。特斯拉是不是一家改变世界的公司？毫无疑问，它是。东方港湾是从特斯拉股价大约30美元时，就开始研究这家公司，后来在股价大约90美元时大量买入，包括在疫情期间，特斯拉也为我们带来了收益。但在前年，由于我们对特斯拉的投资较多，它有比较大的回撤。轻资产和高盈利抗风险能力更强从我们自身的角度来看，还有第三个核心原则，那就是轻资产和高盈利。尽管特斯拉是一家改变世界的公司，我至今仍然很看好它的长期前景，但在特斯拉实现无人驾驶和人形机器人技术之前，它仍然是一家重资产的汽车公司。众所周知，重资产公司的毛利率和净利率，往往较大地受到宏观经济波动的影响，其竞争格局也容易受到重大影响。与之相比，轻资产、高盈利的公司，包括平台型公司，相对来说抗风险能力更强。因此，如果要说投资有什么核心密码的话，我认为有三个：第一，投资要寻找主因；第二，投资于那些能够改变世界的公司，以及那些不会被世界改变的公司；第三，选择轻资产、高盈利的商业模式。实际上，从2008年东方港湾吃到大亏以后，我们基本上放弃了在依赖杠杆的商业模式中的投资，比如房地产、保险和银行业。在经济危机中，这些依赖杠杆的商业模式很容易出现问题。到目前为止，从战略选择的角度来看，在全球范围内，真正能够创造巨大产业机会的，可能只有人工智能。我们为什么以美国的人工智能公司作为首选呢？因为人工智能行业需要巨大的投入，以及潜在的技术优势。遗憾的是，华为不上市。如果华为上市，我们肯定会重仓投资华为这样领先的人工智能公司。以全球七大科技公司为例，亚马逊去年的研发投入高达856亿美元，谷歌也投入了超过450亿美元。此外，前天发布的消息是，它宣布计划在人工智能领域再投资1000亿美元。微软在近两年的研发投入均为270多亿美元，虽然看似增长不大，但它也宣布将投资1000亿美元。苹果公司去年的研发投入接近300亿美元，今年的投资额更多。预计今年亚马逊的研发投入也将超过1000亿美元。我们看到，已经有三家公司的投资超过了1000亿美元。华为去年的研发投入大约是1000多亿人民币，这可能比微软去年的研发投入还要少一些。此外，奥尔特曼（OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman）说将投资7万亿美元——这相当于日本和德国GDP之和，用于投资芯片和人工智能领域。所以我们看到的是，人工智能行业需要巨额的资金投入，这是一个竞争激烈的行业。这有点像所谓的“缩放理论”，即在投资未达到某个临界点之前，技术可能很弱。但一旦突破，如果摩尔定律没有达到上限，就需要继续投资。竞争的格局迫使这些大公司不断投入，否则就有被淘汰的风险。OpenAI的上市可能意味着泡沫的出现人工智能的商业模式特征，是高投入和巨额投资，最终胜出的大概率很可能还是那些能够持续投入的公司——与移动互联网时代的结果一样。目前，我们的关注点仍然集中在那些能够进行巨额投资的公司，尤其是那些专注于AI基础层的公司。事实上，AI基础层公司的估值并不特别高。以英伟达为例，根据今年的业绩预测，其市盈率大约是30倍，明年可能会降至20倍。英伟达的毛利率约为74%，净利润率为49%，这意味着，如果有2000亿美元的收入，可能会有1000亿美元的净利润。虽然微软看起来有点贵，但我们预测微软未来五年的利润可能会增长一倍。像Meta、谷歌、苹果，它们的市盈率都在20多倍。苹果每年还有900亿美元的股票回购，回购后这些股票就会被注销。想象一下，如果苹果持续回购股票10年……Meta也宣布了500亿美元的股票回购。同样，英伟达在去年7月股价最高点时，也宣布了270亿美元的股票回购计划。我们还看到，人工智能的发展可能会带来像亚马逊这样的公司变革，因为它的人力投入是比较大的。人形机器人技术发展，可能会使其成本急剧下降——此外，与许多公司相比，这些公司最大的不同之处，在于它们拥有第二增长曲线和第三增长曲线。以微软为例，它从最初的Windows操作系统发展到云计算，现在又进入了人工智能领域。实际上已经经历了第二增长阶段和第三增长阶段，甚至可以说是第四增长阶段。包括今年表现不佳的特斯拉，它在无人驾驶和人形机器人技术上的投入，预示着它的第二增长和第三增长。同样，尽管今年苹果的表现也不是很好，但就像从功能手机向智能手机的转变，如果能够再到AI手机的转变，那么很可能在明年或者今年年底，迎来AI手机的换机潮，这可能会为苹果带来新的增长极。任何一个泡沫的破裂，通常都会有一些标志性的变化。在互联网时代，一个带有.com后缀的公司上市并被爆炒时，这可能就是泡沫的一个标志。目前，OpenAI尚未上市，我预计OpenAI的上市，可能会成为人工智能时代的一个标志性事件。假设OpenAI上市时的市值是2000亿或3000亿美元，如果它的市值能够增长到1万亿美元，那么这可能会引发一波AI公司的上市热潮。届时AI公司可能会被爆炒，这可能就标志着一个泡沫阶段的到来。人类社会再次达到了一个临界点目前，还是刚开始，我们对人工智能的关注，主要集中在AI基础层这一方向，我们还没有向AI的垂直应用领域扩展，尽管这个领域也存在很多机会。此外，从长期来看，我们试图观察科技革命的影响。无论是人口结构还是财富增长，在过去几千年的变化中，技术革命是投资中最核心的要素。它是一种根本性的变革。在人类历史上，真正引起社会指数级变化的是蒸汽机时代的开始。现在我们进入了什么时代呢？那就是人工智能时代。人工智能时代的变化，在某种程度上类似于蒸汽机对人类社会的影响。人类社会再次达到了一个临界点。从长期来看，互联网，自90年代以来，以腾讯为例，它已经从一个成长股转变为价值股，经历了几十年的演变。同样，自2005年以来，智能手机行业也经历了几十年的变化，苹果公司总体上也从成长股转变为价值股。持有一家公司从成长股到价值股的整个过程我最近写了一篇短文，我说，如果想要赚到大钱，应该持有什么？那就是持有一家公司从成长股到价值股的整个过程，并用产业结构的视角去持有它。这种持有通常需要十年、二十年的时间。因为只有这样，你才能赚到现象级的钱。如果你想要赚到上百倍的钱、现象级的钱，你就一定要从产业的角度去持有一个完整的周期，即从成长股到价值股的过程。我们现在仅仅处于AI技术爆发的第一天。最近，比如英伟达和其他一些AI相关公司的股票有所调整。但坦白说，在历史的长河中，这只是短期现象。我之前写过一篇文章，探讨为什么大多数人会错失一个时代。这个时代的变革雷声滚滚，在投资一个行业的过程当中，我们也可能会被一些次要因素所干扰。比如，最近有关英伟达与思科的争论，这种讨论当然是有益的，但也可能影响你的判断。从产业的角度来看，如果你忽略这些短期变化，如果我们从长期视角来看，实际上，从产业的角度来看，人工智能目前仍然是在爆发的第一天。我们可以看到，在前几次技术革命浪潮中，都产生了许多大型应用。以互联网为例，随着互联网的到来，像亚马逊、Netflix、谷歌和Facebook等公司都取得了巨大的成功。同样，在智能手机时代，也涌现出了种种创新应用。我们认为，投资一定要有一种持续学习和迭代的精神，否则你可能会很遗憾。颠覆性的变化才刚刚开始实际上，未来AI医生也是一个发展方向。例如，诺华诺德投资了8800万美元与英伟达合作，这涉及到医药研发。ChatGPT技术出来以后，我有一个朋友在美国一家动漫公司工作，他看到AI技术后表示，这项技术颠覆了他从本科到研究生所学的专业，他认为自己的专业知识已经过时了。当Sora技术出现时，他认为电影工业将会经历一场变革。不久前，另一位朋友从美国回来，他提到即使是全球顶尖的卡内基梅隆大学计算机专业的学生，过去通常是还没毕业就拿到了Offer，但去年这个专业有一半的毕业生找不到工作。有些学校的一些计算机课程甚至被取消。我们可以看到，这种颠覆性的变化才刚刚开始。我们再来看互联网，在过去的几次技术革命中，实际上都带来了超过10倍的变化。以移动互联网时代为例，当移动互联网刚开始时，像苹果、谷歌、Facebook等公司，虽然已经是大公司，它们的总市值加起来是5000亿美元。但随后，这些公司的市值增长了12倍。在之前的几次技术革命中，相关公司的市值也都增长了10倍以上。因此，我刚才提到，很有可能人类会出现第一家市值达到10万亿美元的公司。因为在过去的三次技术革命中，这一规律一直存在。虽然我们不知道第四次革命是否会打破这一规律，但我认为这一规律继续延续的可能性仍然很大。另外，在过去的50年里，我们看到的是GPU和软件的结合，生产出了越来越快的计算机。那么在未来50年，我们将看到的是GPU加上AI模型，这将等同于超级智能大脑，这是未来50年的变革。包括我们看到马斯克的脑机接口技术，它让一位瘫痪的年轻人通过植入芯片就能玩游戏。目前，我认为人工智能造福人类的可能性相当大。作为投资者，在这样一个变革的时代，东方港湾全力以赴地迎接这个时代的到来。从某种意义上说，东方港湾现在就像是一家人工智能公司，我们正全力以赴地朝这个方向前进。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296656929841288,"gmtCreate":1713463756725,"gmtModify":1713463758635,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我预测能上2200","listText":"我预测能上2200","text":"我预测能上2200","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296656929841288","repostId":"2428302302","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2428302302","pubTimestamp":1713404150,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2428302302?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-18 09:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"机构预测：牛市情景下，英伟达股价明年有望升破1500美元！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428302302","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"$Evercore$ ISI本周发布报告称，尽管$英伟达$股价过去一年里飙升了200%以上，但该股仍有很大的上涨潜力。该公司认为，在牛市情景下，英伟达的股价明年可能会飙升至1540美元，较当前水平上涨81%。利帕西斯预计，到2030年，英伟达将占据并行处理市场80%的份额，后者的价值可能超过3500亿美元。在这种情况下，到本十年末，英伟达的每股盈利能力将达到69美元，而该公司去年的每股盈利为11.93美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI本周发布报告称，尽管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>股价过去一年里飙升了200%以上，但该股仍有很大的上涨潜力。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a>将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的评级定为“跑赢大盘”，目标价为1160美元，较当前水平有36%的潜在上涨空间。该公司认为，在牛市情景下，英伟达的股价明年可能会飙升至1540美元，较当前水平上涨81%。</p><p>Evercore表示，之所以设定如此高的目标价，是因为英伟达不仅仅是一家芯片公司，尽管大多数投资者仍然只是这样认为。</p><p>Evercore分析师马克·利帕西斯（Mark Lipacis）表示：“我们认为投资者低估了：1）英伟达创建的芯片+硬件+软件生态系统的重要性；2）计算时代持续15-20年，通常由一家垂直整合的生态系统公司主导，其回报率在100- 1000倍之间。”</p><p>利帕西斯看涨的关键论点是，英伟达是一个人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>生态系统的参与者，它是一个新的计算平台的明显领导者，将在未来几年推动效率的提高。</p><p>利帕西斯表示：“这种‘生态系统玩家’通常占据了各自计算时代创造的价值的80%，而其他公司则争夺另外20%。”</p><p>利帕西斯预计，到2030年，英伟达将占据并行处理市场80%的份额，后者的价值可能超过3500亿美元。在这种情况下，到本十年末，英伟达的每股盈利能力将达到69美元，而该公司去年的每股盈利为11.93美元。</p><p>利帕西斯表示：“我们认为，当前并行处理/物联网计算时代的结构性转变始于5至8年前，英伟达是并行处理领域的主导生态系统，而这只是为投资者带来巨大回报的开始阶段。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>机构预测：牛市情景下，英伟达股价明年有望升破1500美元！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n机构预测：牛市情景下，英伟达股价明年有望升破1500美元！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-18 09:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-18/doc-inasfexe7826143.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Evercore ISI本周发布报告称，尽管英伟达股价过去一年里飙升了200%以上，但该股仍有很大的上涨潜力。Evercore将英伟达的评级定为“跑赢大盘”，目标价为1160美元，较当前水平有36%的潜在上涨空间。该公司认为，在牛市情景下，英伟达的股价明年可能会飙升至1540美元，较当前水平上涨81%。Evercore表示，之所以设定如此高的目标价，是因为英伟达不仅仅是一家芯片公司，尽管大多数...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-18/doc-inasfexe7826143.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e69b1aea7f8e673c51aca46530f32d","relate_stocks":{"IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4588":"碎股","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-18/doc-inasfexe7826143.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2428302302","content_text":"Evercore ISI本周发布报告称，尽管英伟达股价过去一年里飙升了200%以上，但该股仍有很大的上涨潜力。Evercore将英伟达的评级定为“跑赢大盘”，目标价为1160美元，较当前水平有36%的潜在上涨空间。该公司认为，在牛市情景下，英伟达的股价明年可能会飙升至1540美元，较当前水平上涨81%。Evercore表示，之所以设定如此高的目标价，是因为英伟达不仅仅是一家芯片公司，尽管大多数投资者仍然只是这样认为。Evercore分析师马克·利帕西斯（Mark Lipacis）表示：“我们认为投资者低估了：1）英伟达创建的芯片+硬件+软件生态系统的重要性；2）计算时代持续15-20年，通常由一家垂直整合的生态系统公司主导，其回报率在100- 1000倍之间。”利帕西斯看涨的关键论点是，英伟达是一个人工智能生态系统的参与者，它是一个新的计算平台的明显领导者，将在未来几年推动效率的提高。利帕西斯表示：“这种‘生态系统玩家’通常占据了各自计算时代创造的价值的80%，而其他公司则争夺另外20%。”利帕西斯预计，到2030年，英伟达将占据并行处理市场80%的份额，后者的价值可能超过3500亿美元。在这种情况下，到本十年末，英伟达的每股盈利能力将达到69美元，而该公司去年的每股盈利为11.93美元。利帕西斯表示：“我们认为，当前并行处理/物联网计算时代的结构性转变始于5至8年前，英伟达是并行处理领域的主导生态系统，而这只是为投资者带来巨大回报的开始阶段。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":294753845559344,"gmtCreate":1712974471776,"gmtModify":1712974473206,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294753845559344","repostId":"294355582881864","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":294355582881864,"gmtCreate":1712887179521,"gmtModify":1712887537074,"author":{"id":"4126831293164122","authorId":"4126831293164122","name":"饭团比比叨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ffd82f2a6ec3e8cbe8afec86d95087","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"凭什么值2万亿？英伟达不止AI芯片，要做就做AI时代的“微软”","htmlText":"在这不到两年的时间里，媒体天天喊着英伟达突破万亿美元，又突破2万亿元，一夜间又涨了xx、打破记录... 总之就是各种标题党，怎么雷人怎么来，说什么AI芯片的王者，实力最强，可讲来讲去都是这些，但都没说点子上，凭什么英伟达能一直涨，背后的逻辑是是啥，看来看去，这些消息都成审美疲劳了。 从前不久的英伟达GTC大会采访黄仁勋的对话中，我们能看到非常有意思的东西，比如黄仁勋提到：“有人说光是卖芯片，很难卖到2.5万亿市值水平。我无法不赞同这个观点。”“所以英伟达一定不是个芯片公司。”这是他的原话。 确实，英伟达绝对不是一个单纯的芯片公司。我们来看英伟达正在出售的硬件产品，除了芯片，还有板卡、超级计算机、交换机、机架等等一堆的东西，软件的话，还有各类加速库、中间件、软件、云服务这些，也就是说英伟达的商业模式生态系统是非常丰富的。 其实总结起来，英伟达是一家以AI芯片为基础的AI生态公司，我们来总结一下今年英伟达的GTC上的一些东西就很清晰了。黄仁勋发布的几个核心产品包括Blackwell GPU及其系统，面向开发者提供Omniverse Cloud API，人形机器人Project GROOT项目，以及在、本次产品发布最重要的NIM(NVIDIA Inference Microservice，英伟达推理微服务，除了硬件还有一堆的软件系统，也就是英伟达未来的目标是普及、巩固自家AI生态模式。 其中最值得一说的还是这个NIM。英伟达其实一直很清楚，很多企业对AI是存在困惑的，尤其是怎么用，能达成何种效果之类的问题;更不用说对模型做优化，将必要的计算栈都搭建起来。所以黄仁勋说“我们想了个办法”，“一种让你能够接收和操作软件的办法。软件就放在一个数字盒子里。”“这个盒子就是NIM。” 在谈NIM究竟是什么的问题之前，先聊一个英伟达自己内部已经在用的东西叫ChipNeMo。简单来说，这是个懂得","listText":"在这不到两年的时间里，媒体天天喊着英伟达突破万亿美元，又突破2万亿元，一夜间又涨了xx、打破记录... 总之就是各种标题党，怎么雷人怎么来，说什么AI芯片的王者，实力最强，可讲来讲去都是这些，但都没说点子上，凭什么英伟达能一直涨，背后的逻辑是是啥，看来看去，这些消息都成审美疲劳了。 从前不久的英伟达GTC大会采访黄仁勋的对话中，我们能看到非常有意思的东西，比如黄仁勋提到：“有人说光是卖芯片，很难卖到2.5万亿市值水平。我无法不赞同这个观点。”“所以英伟达一定不是个芯片公司。”这是他的原话。 确实，英伟达绝对不是一个单纯的芯片公司。我们来看英伟达正在出售的硬件产品，除了芯片，还有板卡、超级计算机、交换机、机架等等一堆的东西，软件的话，还有各类加速库、中间件、软件、云服务这些，也就是说英伟达的商业模式生态系统是非常丰富的。 其实总结起来，英伟达是一家以AI芯片为基础的AI生态公司，我们来总结一下今年英伟达的GTC上的一些东西就很清晰了。黄仁勋发布的几个核心产品包括Blackwell GPU及其系统，面向开发者提供Omniverse Cloud API，人形机器人Project GROOT项目，以及在、本次产品发布最重要的NIM(NVIDIA Inference Microservice，英伟达推理微服务，除了硬件还有一堆的软件系统，也就是英伟达未来的目标是普及、巩固自家AI生态模式。 其中最值得一说的还是这个NIM。英伟达其实一直很清楚，很多企业对AI是存在困惑的，尤其是怎么用，能达成何种效果之类的问题;更不用说对模型做优化，将必要的计算栈都搭建起来。所以黄仁勋说“我们想了个办法”，“一种让你能够接收和操作软件的办法。软件就放在一个数字盒子里。”“这个盒子就是NIM。” 在谈NIM究竟是什么的问题之前，先聊一个英伟达自己内部已经在用的东西叫ChipNeMo。简单来说，这是个懂得","text":"在这不到两年的时间里，媒体天天喊着英伟达突破万亿美元，又突破2万亿元，一夜间又涨了xx、打破记录... 总之就是各种标题党，怎么雷人怎么来，说什么AI芯片的王者，实力最强，可讲来讲去都是这些，但都没说点子上，凭什么英伟达能一直涨，背后的逻辑是是啥，看来看去，这些消息都成审美疲劳了。 从前不久的英伟达GTC大会采访黄仁勋的对话中，我们能看到非常有意思的东西，比如黄仁勋提到：“有人说光是卖芯片，很难卖到2.5万亿市值水平。我无法不赞同这个观点。”“所以英伟达一定不是个芯片公司。”这是他的原话。 确实，英伟达绝对不是一个单纯的芯片公司。我们来看英伟达正在出售的硬件产品，除了芯片，还有板卡、超级计算机、交换机、机架等等一堆的东西，软件的话，还有各类加速库、中间件、软件、云服务这些，也就是说英伟达的商业模式生态系统是非常丰富的。 其实总结起来，英伟达是一家以AI芯片为基础的AI生态公司，我们来总结一下今年英伟达的GTC上的一些东西就很清晰了。黄仁勋发布的几个核心产品包括Blackwell GPU及其系统，面向开发者提供Omniverse Cloud API，人形机器人Project GROOT项目，以及在、本次产品发布最重要的NIM(NVIDIA Inference Microservice，英伟达推理微服务，除了硬件还有一堆的软件系统，也就是英伟达未来的目标是普及、巩固自家AI生态模式。 其中最值得一说的还是这个NIM。英伟达其实一直很清楚，很多企业对AI是存在困惑的，尤其是怎么用，能达成何种效果之类的问题;更不用说对模型做优化，将必要的计算栈都搭建起来。所以黄仁勋说“我们想了个办法”，“一种让你能够接收和操作软件的办法。软件就放在一个数字盒子里。”“这个盒子就是NIM。” 在谈NIM究竟是什么的问题之前，先聊一个英伟达自己内部已经在用的东西叫ChipNeMo。简单来说，这是个懂得","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294355582881864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":48,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293515254931504,"gmtCreate":1712678647574,"gmtModify":1712678650363,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"比如说英伟达去年四季度赚了120亿美金，简单乘个4，市场认为就已经达到了一年能挣500亿美金的能力。500亿美金对于成长股特别是AI成长股，乘以40倍市盈率就是2万美金，这个估值就给出来了。所","listText":"比如说英伟达去年四季度赚了120亿美金，简单乘个4，市场认为就已经达到了一年能挣500亿美金的能力。500亿美金对于成长股特别是AI成长股，乘以40倍市盈率就是2万美金，这个估值就给出来了。所","text":"比如说英伟达去年四季度赚了120亿美金，简单乘个4，市场认为就已经达到了一年能挣500亿美金的能力。500亿美金对于成长股特别是AI成长股，乘以40倍市盈率就是2万美金，这个估值就给出来了。所","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293515254931504","repostId":"2426215256","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2426215256","pubTimestamp":1712653260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2426215256?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-09 17:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达高利润增长速度还能保持多久？刘煜辉：比市场能想象的还要久","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2426215256","media":"新浪财经","summary":"比如说英伟达去年四季度赚了120亿美金，简单乘个4，市场认为就已经达到了一年能挣500亿美金的能力。从产业的趋势来讲，英伟达每个季报的财报都是值得强烈地去憧憬和想象的。因为在这样一个格局中间，在GPU、超算芯片的这个领域，现在它没有一个竞争的对手，无论是AMD还是谁，跟它的技术积累和市场份额来讲差很远，基本上是一个完全垄断的格局，它保持一个高利润增长的速度的时间比我们市场所想象的还会要长很多。","content":"<html><body><article><p>二季度经济如何表现？市场有哪些投资机会？4月9日，@新浪财经 赵般娇独家对话@刘煜辉lyhfhtx @洪灏的宏观策略，拆解全球<span>资产</span>的脉络，寻找隐藏投资机会。&gt;&gt;视频直播</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20240409170155025d2062e85wdddw2u\"/><p>关于AI未来发展以及美国科技股的走势，刘煜辉表示，美股的成长股估值都是简单粗暴的，它就是看季度报表的盈利。比如说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>去年四季度赚了120亿美金，简单乘个4，市场认为就已经达到了一年能挣500亿美金的能力。500亿美金对于成长股特别是AI成长股，乘以40倍市盈率就是2万美金，这个估值就给出来了。所以，对于美股特别是成长股的估值来讲，其实就是盯着季报对比。比如今年一季度结束了以后，看英伟达的一季报，是不是能达到150亿美金，如果达到150亿美金，市场继续往前给，一年能挣600个亿。如果是600个亿乘以40倍，就能够支撑它2.4万亿的市值，它是一个季度一个季度地估值。</p><p>从趋势来讲，如果再给五年，人类应该是能够两只脚同时迈进AGI的时代。它本身不再是一个简单的信息化和自动化的过程，本身AI变成跟人类一样的一个带有思维、带有自我学习能力的一种生物的机器，整个世界的生态就可能完全不一样了。</p><p>从产业的趋势来讲，英伟达每个季报的财报都是值得强烈地去憧憬和想象的。所以，在这么明确的一个产业趋势，我们不能轻言这只股票的顶在什么地方。在这个大背景下，人类开启了一个新的摩尔时间。上一次的摩尔时间是上世纪70年代、80年代开启的IC的革命，带入了信息产业革命，已经是50年前的事情了。这一次从去年的GPT横空出世以后，人类的技术确实又进入了一个新的摩尔时间，摩尔时间的迭代，过去一年AI迭代速度的表现，比上一次摩尔时间迭代的速度要强化非常多，强化好多倍，上一次是每隔18个月，整个人类IC的能力和电脑功能的效能是翻一倍。这一次AI对应的迭代的速度，大概是每隔6个月效能就翻一倍。我们从过去一年GPU人类超算芯片性能效率提升的速度，我们能亲身感觉到强烈的爆发力。从这个角度来讲，英伟达的空间确实很难说。因为在这样一个格局中间，在GPU、超算芯片的这个领域，现在它没有一个竞争的对手，无论是AMD还是谁，跟它的技术积累和市场份额来讲差很远，基本上是一个完全垄断的格局，它保持一个高利润增长的速度的时间比我们市场所想象的还会要长很多。</p><p>责任编辑：江钰涵</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达高利润增长速度还能保持多久？刘煜辉：比市场能想象的还要久\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-09 17:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202404091701557a5195f7&s=b><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>二季度经济如何表现？市场有哪些投资机会？4月9日，@新浪财经 赵般娇独家对话@刘煜辉lyhfhtx @洪灏的宏观策略，拆解全球资产的脉络，寻找隐藏投资机会。>>视频直播关于AI未来发展以及美国科技股的走势，刘煜辉表示，美股的成长股估值都是简单粗暴的，它就是看季度报表的盈利。比如说英伟达去年四季度赚了120亿美金，简单乘个4，市场认为就已经达到了一年能挣500亿美金的能力。500亿美金对于成长股特别...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202404091701557a5195f7&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global 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SGD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202404091701557a5195f7&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2426215256","content_text":"二季度经济如何表现？市场有哪些投资机会？4月9日，@新浪财经 赵般娇独家对话@刘煜辉lyhfhtx @洪灏的宏观策略，拆解全球资产的脉络，寻找隐藏投资机会。>>视频直播关于AI未来发展以及美国科技股的走势，刘煜辉表示，美股的成长股估值都是简单粗暴的，它就是看季度报表的盈利。比如说英伟达去年四季度赚了120亿美金，简单乘个4，市场认为就已经达到了一年能挣500亿美金的能力。500亿美金对于成长股特别是AI成长股，乘以40倍市盈率就是2万美金，这个估值就给出来了。所以，对于美股特别是成长股的估值来讲，其实就是盯着季报对比。比如今年一季度结束了以后，看英伟达的一季报，是不是能达到150亿美金，如果达到150亿美金，市场继续往前给，一年能挣600个亿。如果是600个亿乘以40倍，就能够支撑它2.4万亿的市值，它是一个季度一个季度地估值。从趋势来讲，如果再给五年，人类应该是能够两只脚同时迈进AGI的时代。它本身不再是一个简单的信息化和自动化的过程，本身AI变成跟人类一样的一个带有思维、带有自我学习能力的一种生物的机器，整个世界的生态就可能完全不一样了。从产业的趋势来讲，英伟达每个季报的财报都是值得强烈地去憧憬和想象的。所以，在这么明确的一个产业趋势，我们不能轻言这只股票的顶在什么地方。在这个大背景下，人类开启了一个新的摩尔时间。上一次的摩尔时间是上世纪70年代、80年代开启的IC的革命，带入了信息产业革命，已经是50年前的事情了。这一次从去年的GPT横空出世以后，人类的技术确实又进入了一个新的摩尔时间，摩尔时间的迭代，过去一年AI迭代速度的表现，比上一次摩尔时间迭代的速度要强化非常多，强化好多倍，上一次是每隔18个月，整个人类IC的能力和电脑功能的效能是翻一倍。这一次AI对应的迭代的速度，大概是每隔6个月效能就翻一倍。我们从过去一年GPU人类超算芯片性能效率提升的速度，我们能亲身感觉到强烈的爆发力。从这个角度来讲，英伟达的空间确实很难说。因为在这样一个格局中间，在GPU、超算芯片的这个领域，现在它没有一个竞争的对手，无论是AMD还是谁，跟它的技术积累和市场份额来讲差很远，基本上是一个完全垄断的格局，它保持一个高利润增长的速度的时间比我们市场所想象的还会要长很多。责任编辑：江钰涵","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293514332364848,"gmtCreate":1712678422338,"gmtModify":1712678424204,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"事实上，近现代历史上每一次技术革命都伴随着巨大的金融泡沫，工业革命期间有运河热，蒸汽和铁路时代有铁路热，都是在这些泡沫及其引起的衰退过后，才迎来了真正的大繁荣。","listText":"事实上，近现代历史上每一次技术革命都伴随着巨大的金融泡沫，工业革命期间有运河热，蒸汽和铁路时代有铁路热，都是在这些泡沫及其引起的衰退过后，才迎来了真正的大繁荣。","text":"事实上，近现代历史上每一次技术革命都伴随着巨大的金融泡沫，工业革命期间有运河热，蒸汽和铁路时代有铁路热，都是在这些泡沫及其引起的衰退过后，才迎来了真正的大繁荣。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293514332364848","repostId":"2426391157","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2426391157","pubTimestamp":1712653439,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2426391157?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-09 17:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"291亿投资拉动5万亿财富增长，大模型的泡沫来了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2426391157","media":"乌鸦智能说","summary":"2023年，苹果、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta的股票已累计上涨75%，远远超过纳斯达克指数43%的涨幅。01291亿投资，拉动5万亿的财富增长2023年11月，ChatGPT的发布掀起了生成式AI的热潮。不久前，亚马逊宣布将向Anthropc投资27.5亿美元，总投资额达40亿美元，创新了亚马逊外部投资记录。在英伟达公布史上最佳财务业绩后，股价飙升15%，黄仁勋单日财富增长高达85亿美元，达到了惊人的681亿美元，相当于约4903.2亿元人民币，并跃升至全球富豪榜第21位。","content":"<html><body><p>2023年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和Meta的股票已累计上涨75%，远远超过纳斯达克指数43%的涨幅。算下来，这七家公司的市值在去年增长了近5万亿美元。</p><p>科技股股价暴涨并非来自于业绩。要知道，整个2023年，除英伟达外，其余六家收入增长均低于20%。造成这一翻天覆地变化的根本原因是，生成式AI与大语言模型在去年席卷了全球科技圈。去年一年，全球生成式AI的投资额高达291亿美元。</p><p>与传统互联网的故事不同，资本成为生成式AI竞争的最关键因素。所有的科技巨头都直接或间接参与了这场军备竞赛，并主导了模型公司的融资和估值。</p><p>就在刚刚，亚马逊向Anthropic追加27.5亿美元投资，此次注资完成后，亚马逊对Anthropic的总投资达40亿美元。这是亚马逊30年以来最大的一笔外部投资。巨头们的军备竞赛，也让身为AI军火商的英伟达比前一年多赚了340亿美元。</p><p>巨头们愿意参与这场千亿美金豪赌，并不令人意外。某种程度上，生成式AI的出现，恰逢其时。</p><p>当平台型机会几乎消失，人口红利走到尽头，全球互联网的故事宣告结束。在这样的背景下，资本一方面变得前所未有地节制，另一方面又变得前所未有地贪婪，他们坐拥大量现金，但真正值得的押注寥寥无几。而生成式AI，就是一个充满想象力，甚至可以改变世界的故事。</p><p>但现实也是残酷的。红杉资本最新报告显示，AI行业在英伟达芯片上的部署费用高达500亿美元，而营收却只有30亿美元。显然，生成式AI的远大愿景和羸弱商业化的现实之间，仍然需要无数的故事去填。</p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p><strong>291亿投资，拉动5万亿的财富增长</strong></p><p>2023年11月，ChatGPT的发布掀起了生成式AI的热潮。根据 PitchBook 的数据，2023 年，超过70轮1亿美元或以上的资金流向了创建模型、提供基础设施或将技术应用于特定应用的初创公司。短短一年内，投资者向近700笔生成式AI交易投入了 291 亿美元，比上一年增长了 260% 以上。</p><p>几乎所有的科技巨头都参与，甚至主导了这场游戏：OpenAI、Mistral背后站着微软，Anthropic后面有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>和亚马逊的支持，而马斯克和扎克伯格都亲自下场研发大模型。</p><p>到了今年，科技巨头对生成式AI的下注热情只增不减。今年3月，OpenAI联合微软发布了一项价值1000亿美元的“星际之门”超级计算机计划，旨在进攻未来的AI市场。不久前，亚马逊宣布将向Anthropc投资27.5亿美元，总投资额达40亿美元，创新了亚马逊外部投资记录。</p><p>频繁的巨额投资背后，是生成式AI发展对资本的超高需求。根据此前披露的消息，GPT-4的FLOPS约为2.15e25，并利用约25000个A100 GPU进行了90到100天的训练，如果OpenAI的云计算成本按每A100小时约1美元计算，那么在这样的条件下，训练一次GPT-4的成本约为6300万美元。</p><p>随着AI模型能力的提升，训练成本也在日益高涨。根据拾象CEO李广密判断，未来几年OpenAI仅训练模型⾄少还得200-300亿美元，Google200-300亿美元，Anthropic100-200亿美元。这意味着，未来几年至少投入1000亿美元纯粹用到训练⼤模型。</p><p>科技巨头的大手笔下注，彻底点燃了二级市场对生成式AI的热情。去年，苹果、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta的股票已累计上涨75%，远远超过纳斯达克指数43%的涨幅。算下来，这七家公司的市值在去年增长了近5万亿美元。</p><p>其中，自打向OpenAI投资100亿后，微软股价就开始不断上涨，并于今年一月以2.89万亿美元的总市值超过了苹果，成为世界上市值最高的公司。而“AI卖铲人”英伟达的市值也上涨至近2万亿美元。</p><p>当时代的“泡沫”落到个人身上，所带来的财富效应也极为夸张。在英伟达公布史上最佳财务业绩后，股价飙升15%，黄仁勋单日财富增长高达85亿美元，达到了惊人的681亿美元，相当于约4903.2亿元人民币，并跃升至全球富豪榜第21位。</p><p>创纪录的投入规模和夸张的财富效应背后，承载着人们对生成式AI的殷切期待。但回归现实，一个残酷的事实是，生成式AI距离人们的期待仍然有很长的距离。</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p><strong>生成式AI的残酷现实：巨头降低预期、独角兽纷纷陨落</strong></p><p>相比投入端的热火朝天，生成式AI的产出仍然有限。红杉资本报告显示，AI行业去年仅在英伟达芯片上就花费了500亿美元，但产出的营收只有30亿美元，也就是说，AI投入是产出的17倍左右。</p><p>就拿微软来说，看似吃到了OpenAI红利，但就份额来看，去年人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>仅占微软云计算部门收入增长的约五分之一。微软首席财务官Amy Hood透露，最近3个季度微软智能云中分别有1%、3%、6%的营收来自于此，换算下来分别是2.4亿、7.5亿和15.5亿美元。</p><p>而且，GitHub Copilo由于运行成本太高一直处于亏损状态，微软平均每月在每个用户身上要倒贴逾20美元，有些用户每月给微软带来的损失高达80美元。</p><p>这还是全世界最好模型的变现能力。作为对比，Google Cloud 2024年北美地区AI服务的业绩目标不过10亿美元，这个收入增量甚至不足以覆盖购买AI芯片的开支。</p><p>科技媒体The Information报道称，包括微软、亚马逊和Google在内的云厂商和其他销售该技术（指生成式AI）的公司，正在降低自己的预期。</p><p>能够拥抱科技巨头的大模型公司尚且如此，AI独角兽的日子就要更加惨淡了。</p><p>2024年3月，曾经的文生图巨头Stability AI的领导者辞职，这家初创公司2023年收入4420万美元，而支出就将近1000万美元，不足支出一半。同期，融资13亿美元的Inflection AI创始人Mustafa也因产品商业化表现不佳，带着核心研发团队加入了微软。曾经的NLP明星公司竹间智能受到大模型浪潮的冲击因经营困难在2月20日宣布停工停产六个月。</p><p>不久前，就连一直鄙视广告业务的AI搜索公司Perplexity，也准备开始卖广告了。Perplexity曾在公司首页上这样介绍自己：“搜索信息应该是一种直接、高效的体验，不受广告驱动模式的影响。我们之所以存在，是因为在信息过载的噪音中，明确需要一个平台来提供精准、以用户为中心的答案，尤其在时间如此宝贵的时代。”</p><p>Perplexity妥协背后，是生成式AI商业化困境的现实体现。庞大的支出和微弱的收益很容易让人怀疑，AI是否只是一场随时会冷却的资本泡沫？</p><p>ARK 投资管理公司（ARK Investment Management）创始人兼首席执行官Cathie Wood在最近接受CNBC采访时称， \"这些AI公司中的很多甚至没有产生正现金流的潜力\"。</p><p>双线资本CEO、“新债王”杰弗里·冈拉克也警告称，AI股市的热度让他想起了1999年的互联网泡沫，并预测未来可能会引发通货膨胀和经济衰退。</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p><strong>不止于泡沫，生成式AI的故事仍在继续</strong></p><p>固然，生成式AI不乏泡沫的成分，但与1999年的互联网泡沫仍然有本质的区别。</p><p>从外部环境看，1999年的互联网泡沫主要发生在中小公司上。当时，纳斯达克没有一套规范明晰的上市规则，注册门槛过低。比如，阅读印刷服务公司Noosh上市时收入仅有68000美元，远远低于现在纳斯达克上市要求的75万美元的净利润标准。</p><p>在1996-2000年，纳斯达克盈利公司甚至不到10%，纳斯达克指数市盈率一度超过100倍。这一定程度上也就造成了2000年纳斯达克指数狂跌。</p><p>不同于2000年股市集中在中小公司上的非理性狂热，这次的“泡沫”主要集中在微软、谷歌、亚马逊等科技巨头身上，且这些公司平均市盈率仅27倍。这意味着，科技巨头有足够的财力基础和庞大的用户基数去消化“泡沫”所带的负面影响。</p><p>其次，当时的互联网发展与如今的AI行业也有着明显的差距。</p><p>在2000年，互联网仍只是一个遥远的概念，离落地有仍然有很远的距离。根据世界银行发布数据，互联网在1996年的用户基数仅4500万，也就是说，每一百个人里仅仅只有一个人能够接触互联网，互联网普及率不到1%，到2000年纳斯达克指数狂跌80%，这一数值也仅为7%。</p><p>那时所谓的互联网公司大多没什么核心技术，大部分人甚至都不知道互联网是什么，就疯狂下注。</p><p>Pets.com 就是一家在2000年2月上市的公司，但是作为一家宠物用品零售商，跟互联网基本没什么关联。尽管如此，其首次公开募股就募集了 8250万美元。自然而然，Pets.com在2000年11月上市不到一年就被迫清算，沦为互联网泡沫退场浪潮里一个微小的缩影。</p><p>与互联网早期不同，生成式AI有着扎实的演进逻辑——即模型能力的持续迭代。</p><p>2024年还未过半，OpenAI在2月发布的“世界模拟器”sora就以强大的1min视频生成能力震惊世界，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>音乐AIsuno已经支持摇滚、说唱、谷歌各种风格的一键生成，月之暗面在半年时间内无损长文本由50万突破200万。每一次大模型能力的升级，都意味着用户场景的拓宽。</p><p>从落地情况看，AI现在已经拥有大规模的落地基础。比如，ChatGPT在推出不到半年的时间内，用户基数就已经达到18.1亿，将近当初互联网的40倍。</p><p>除了人们熟知的通用聊天外，生成式AI已经可以用于蛋白质设计、生物环境探测、石油勘测等实体经济领域。尽管去年生成式AI的营收只有30亿美元，远远不及研发费用。但要知道，同样的水平，SaaS行业花了十年才做到。</p><p>从更大维度看，科技泡沫也并非全是坏事。事实上，近现代历史上每一次技术革命都伴随着巨大的金融泡沫，工业革命期间有运河热，蒸汽和铁路时代有铁路热，都是在这些泡沫及其引起的衰退过后，才迎来了真正的大繁荣。</p><p>产业泡沫的意义在于，它用巨大的财富效应，将全社会的资源都吸引过来，汇聚成创新的海啸，以一种摧枯拉朽的方式完成了这一场革命。1996-2001年间，电信公司在美国铺设了8020万英里的光缆，是2001年实际需求的20倍。2004年时，带宽成本下降了90％以上。廉价、充足的宽带网络，为互联网的普及铺平了道路。</p><p>从这个角度上说，泡沫更像是我们前进的方式。比起泡沫本身，更值得关注的是，这场千亿美金豪赌究竟会将人类的未来带向何方。</p><p>文／Nancy</p></body></html>","source":"ifeng_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8YdzLbZRxSl><strong>乌鸦智能说</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2023年，苹果、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta的股票已累计上涨75%，远远超过纳斯达克指数43%的涨幅。算下来，这七家公司的市值在去年增长了近5万亿美元。科技股股价暴涨并非来自于业绩。要知道，整个2023年，除英伟达外，其余六家收入增长均低于20%。造成这一翻天覆地变化的根本原因是，生成式AI与大语言模型在去年席卷了全球科技圈。去年一年，全球生成式AI的投资额高达291...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8YdzLbZRxSl\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","GOOG":"谷歌","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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INC"},"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8YdzLbZRxSl","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2426391157","content_text":"2023年，苹果、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta的股票已累计上涨75%，远远超过纳斯达克指数43%的涨幅。算下来，这七家公司的市值在去年增长了近5万亿美元。科技股股价暴涨并非来自于业绩。要知道，整个2023年，除英伟达外，其余六家收入增长均低于20%。造成这一翻天覆地变化的根本原因是，生成式AI与大语言模型在去年席卷了全球科技圈。去年一年，全球生成式AI的投资额高达291亿美元。与传统互联网的故事不同，资本成为生成式AI竞争的最关键因素。所有的科技巨头都直接或间接参与了这场军备竞赛，并主导了模型公司的融资和估值。就在刚刚，亚马逊向Anthropic追加27.5亿美元投资，此次注资完成后，亚马逊对Anthropic的总投资达40亿美元。这是亚马逊30年以来最大的一笔外部投资。巨头们的军备竞赛，也让身为AI军火商的英伟达比前一年多赚了340亿美元。巨头们愿意参与这场千亿美金豪赌，并不令人意外。某种程度上，生成式AI的出现，恰逢其时。当平台型机会几乎消失，人口红利走到尽头，全球互联网的故事宣告结束。在这样的背景下，资本一方面变得前所未有地节制，另一方面又变得前所未有地贪婪，他们坐拥大量现金，但真正值得的押注寥寥无几。而生成式AI，就是一个充满想象力，甚至可以改变世界的故事。但现实也是残酷的。红杉资本最新报告显示，AI行业在英伟达芯片上的部署费用高达500亿美元，而营收却只有30亿美元。显然，生成式AI的远大愿景和羸弱商业化的现实之间，仍然需要无数的故事去填。01291亿投资，拉动5万亿的财富增长2023年11月，ChatGPT的发布掀起了生成式AI的热潮。根据 PitchBook 的数据，2023 年，超过70轮1亿美元或以上的资金流向了创建模型、提供基础设施或将技术应用于特定应用的初创公司。短短一年内，投资者向近700笔生成式AI交易投入了 291 亿美元，比上一年增长了 260% 以上。几乎所有的科技巨头都参与，甚至主导了这场游戏：OpenAI、Mistral背后站着微软，Anthropic后面有谷歌和亚马逊的支持，而马斯克和扎克伯格都亲自下场研发大模型。到了今年，科技巨头对生成式AI的下注热情只增不减。今年3月，OpenAI联合微软发布了一项价值1000亿美元的“星际之门”超级计算机计划，旨在进攻未来的AI市场。不久前，亚马逊宣布将向Anthropc投资27.5亿美元，总投资额达40亿美元，创新了亚马逊外部投资记录。频繁的巨额投资背后，是生成式AI发展对资本的超高需求。根据此前披露的消息，GPT-4的FLOPS约为2.15e25，并利用约25000个A100 GPU进行了90到100天的训练，如果OpenAI的云计算成本按每A100小时约1美元计算，那么在这样的条件下，训练一次GPT-4的成本约为6300万美元。随着AI模型能力的提升，训练成本也在日益高涨。根据拾象CEO李广密判断，未来几年OpenAI仅训练模型⾄少还得200-300亿美元，Google200-300亿美元，Anthropic100-200亿美元。这意味着，未来几年至少投入1000亿美元纯粹用到训练⼤模型。科技巨头的大手笔下注，彻底点燃了二级市场对生成式AI的热情。去年，苹果、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta的股票已累计上涨75%，远远超过纳斯达克指数43%的涨幅。算下来，这七家公司的市值在去年增长了近5万亿美元。其中，自打向OpenAI投资100亿后，微软股价就开始不断上涨，并于今年一月以2.89万亿美元的总市值超过了苹果，成为世界上市值最高的公司。而“AI卖铲人”英伟达的市值也上涨至近2万亿美元。当时代的“泡沫”落到个人身上，所带来的财富效应也极为夸张。在英伟达公布史上最佳财务业绩后，股价飙升15%，黄仁勋单日财富增长高达85亿美元，达到了惊人的681亿美元，相当于约4903.2亿元人民币，并跃升至全球富豪榜第21位。创纪录的投入规模和夸张的财富效应背后，承载着人们对生成式AI的殷切期待。但回归现实，一个残酷的事实是，生成式AI距离人们的期待仍然有很长的距离。02生成式AI的残酷现实：巨头降低预期、独角兽纷纷陨落相比投入端的热火朝天，生成式AI的产出仍然有限。红杉资本报告显示，AI行业去年仅在英伟达芯片上就花费了500亿美元，但产出的营收只有30亿美元，也就是说，AI投入是产出的17倍左右。就拿微软来说，看似吃到了OpenAI红利，但就份额来看，去年人工智能仅占微软云计算部门收入增长的约五分之一。微软首席财务官Amy Hood透露，最近3个季度微软智能云中分别有1%、3%、6%的营收来自于此，换算下来分别是2.4亿、7.5亿和15.5亿美元。而且，GitHub Copilo由于运行成本太高一直处于亏损状态，微软平均每月在每个用户身上要倒贴逾20美元，有些用户每月给微软带来的损失高达80美元。这还是全世界最好模型的变现能力。作为对比，Google Cloud 2024年北美地区AI服务的业绩目标不过10亿美元，这个收入增量甚至不足以覆盖购买AI芯片的开支。科技媒体The Information报道称，包括微软、亚马逊和Google在内的云厂商和其他销售该技术（指生成式AI）的公司，正在降低自己的预期。能够拥抱科技巨头的大模型公司尚且如此，AI独角兽的日子就要更加惨淡了。2024年3月，曾经的文生图巨头Stability AI的领导者辞职，这家初创公司2023年收入4420万美元，而支出就将近1000万美元，不足支出一半。同期，融资13亿美元的Inflection AI创始人Mustafa也因产品商业化表现不佳，带着核心研发团队加入了微软。曾经的NLP明星公司竹间智能受到大模型浪潮的冲击因经营困难在2月20日宣布停工停产六个月。不久前，就连一直鄙视广告业务的AI搜索公司Perplexity，也准备开始卖广告了。Perplexity曾在公司首页上这样介绍自己：“搜索信息应该是一种直接、高效的体验，不受广告驱动模式的影响。我们之所以存在，是因为在信息过载的噪音中，明确需要一个平台来提供精准、以用户为中心的答案，尤其在时间如此宝贵的时代。”Perplexity妥协背后，是生成式AI商业化困境的现实体现。庞大的支出和微弱的收益很容易让人怀疑，AI是否只是一场随时会冷却的资本泡沫？ARK 投资管理公司（ARK Investment Management）创始人兼首席执行官Cathie Wood在最近接受CNBC采访时称， \"这些AI公司中的很多甚至没有产生正现金流的潜力\"。双线资本CEO、“新债王”杰弗里·冈拉克也警告称，AI股市的热度让他想起了1999年的互联网泡沫，并预测未来可能会引发通货膨胀和经济衰退。03不止于泡沫，生成式AI的故事仍在继续固然，生成式AI不乏泡沫的成分，但与1999年的互联网泡沫仍然有本质的区别。从外部环境看，1999年的互联网泡沫主要发生在中小公司上。当时，纳斯达克没有一套规范明晰的上市规则，注册门槛过低。比如，阅读印刷服务公司Noosh上市时收入仅有68000美元，远远低于现在纳斯达克上市要求的75万美元的净利润标准。在1996-2000年，纳斯达克盈利公司甚至不到10%，纳斯达克指数市盈率一度超过100倍。这一定程度上也就造成了2000年纳斯达克指数狂跌。不同于2000年股市集中在中小公司上的非理性狂热，这次的“泡沫”主要集中在微软、谷歌、亚马逊等科技巨头身上，且这些公司平均市盈率仅27倍。这意味着，科技巨头有足够的财力基础和庞大的用户基数去消化“泡沫”所带的负面影响。其次，当时的互联网发展与如今的AI行业也有着明显的差距。在2000年，互联网仍只是一个遥远的概念，离落地有仍然有很远的距离。根据世界银行发布数据，互联网在1996年的用户基数仅4500万，也就是说，每一百个人里仅仅只有一个人能够接触互联网，互联网普及率不到1%，到2000年纳斯达克指数狂跌80%，这一数值也仅为7%。那时所谓的互联网公司大多没什么核心技术，大部分人甚至都不知道互联网是什么，就疯狂下注。Pets.com 就是一家在2000年2月上市的公司，但是作为一家宠物用品零售商，跟互联网基本没什么关联。尽管如此，其首次公开募股就募集了 8250万美元。自然而然，Pets.com在2000年11月上市不到一年就被迫清算，沦为互联网泡沫退场浪潮里一个微小的缩影。与互联网早期不同，生成式AI有着扎实的演进逻辑——即模型能力的持续迭代。2024年还未过半，OpenAI在2月发布的“世界模拟器”sora就以强大的1min视频生成能力震惊世界，全民音乐AIsuno已经支持摇滚、说唱、谷歌各种风格的一键生成，月之暗面在半年时间内无损长文本由50万突破200万。每一次大模型能力的升级，都意味着用户场景的拓宽。从落地情况看，AI现在已经拥有大规模的落地基础。比如，ChatGPT在推出不到半年的时间内，用户基数就已经达到18.1亿，将近当初互联网的40倍。除了人们熟知的通用聊天外，生成式AI已经可以用于蛋白质设计、生物环境探测、石油勘测等实体经济领域。尽管去年生成式AI的营收只有30亿美元，远远不及研发费用。但要知道，同样的水平，SaaS行业花了十年才做到。从更大维度看，科技泡沫也并非全是坏事。事实上，近现代历史上每一次技术革命都伴随着巨大的金融泡沫，工业革命期间有运河热，蒸汽和铁路时代有铁路热，都是在这些泡沫及其引起的衰退过后，才迎来了真正的大繁荣。产业泡沫的意义在于，它用巨大的财富效应，将全社会的资源都吸引过来，汇聚成创新的海啸，以一种摧枯拉朽的方式完成了这一场革命。1996-2001年间，电信公司在美国铺设了8020万英里的光缆，是2001年实际需求的20倍。2004年时，带宽成本下降了90％以上。廉价、充足的宽带网络，为互联网的普及铺平了道路。从这个角度上说，泡沫更像是我们前进的方式。比起泡沫本身，更值得关注的是，这场千亿美金豪赌究竟会将人类的未来带向何方。文／Nancy","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293147014844632,"gmtCreate":1712588730349,"gmtModify":1712588733139,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"半导体整体行业已经回暖，美光海力士24年产能已经预定完成","listText":"半导体整体行业已经回暖，美光海力士24年产能已经预定完成","text":"半导体整体行业已经回暖，美光海力士24年产能已经预定完成","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293147014844632","repostId":"2425796632","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2425796632","pubTimestamp":1712570220,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2425796632?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-08 17:57","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"押注AI的第二波大赢家","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2425796632","media":"市场资讯","summary":"隶属于DRAM的HBM需求尤其强劲，与大客户英伟达GPU绑定的HBM需求已经在美光目前的股价上有所体现。也就是说，在整个2024年，DRAM和NAND的价格将进一步上涨。今年，这些应用领域都有AI的加持，未来或需要容量更大的内存芯片。据Canalys预测，2024年全年出货量预计增长8%，AI PC的渗透率可达到19%。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>来源：格隆汇</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">去年至今，</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">AI</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">浪潮让股民从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>这类“卖铲人”身上赚取超过五倍的泼天财富。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">但人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>的影响力正在蔓延，第一梯队赢家所在的算力市场快速增长，同时也给第二梯队的供应商创造了需求，比如说，存力。如今这个领域<font cms-style=\"font-L\">随着潜在市场空间的扩大，以及业绩爆发式增长的兑现在不断推动估值水涨船高。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">比如凭借高带宽存储器（HBM）的现实需求贴上AI标签的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>的股价触底反弹了150%，近期在交出一份扭亏为盈的成绩单后，市值迅速突破了历史新高。</p><div><img cms-height=\"327.359\" cms-width=\"644\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20240408s/29/w1080h549/20240408/f4ff-acd34187f5444d9709ffc6819f1c374f.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">除了它，目前能供应的HBM的两大巨头，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、SK海力士，韩股市值稳居前二。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">内存芯片周期加速复苏的预期日益兑现，对去年仍在大规模亏损的存储芯片巨头而言，改变命运的时刻已经到来。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center strong-Bold\">01</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">周期轮动对于市场地位突出的巨头而言，就是把上个周期亏掉的钱赚回来。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">上月美光公布了2024第二财季（2023年12月，2024年1-2月）的业绩表现，</font><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">业绩最大的亮点莫过于，在原本还要承受一个季度的亏损的指引下，美光利润竟然奇迹般的扭亏为盈。</font></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">营收同比猛增58%，至58.2亿美元，NON-GAAP基准下的每股收益为42美分，相比营收预期约为53.5亿美元，每股亏损24美分的市场预期，可谓全面碾压。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">要知道去年同期，</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">美光曾经创下二十年来单季度的最大亏损。营收同比下降53%，亏损23.1亿美元，其中包括14亿美元的库存损失，每股亏损2.12美元。</font></p><div><img cms-height=\"367.312\" cms-width=\"644\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20240408s/96/w1080h616/20240408/3f17-fff5576fff37cdd37c117604db751013.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">仅仅过去一年，美光就从泥沼中爬起来了。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">通过业绩证明了投资者的猜想，作为算力三大要素之一（计算、存储、网络通信）的存力，AI对于存储芯片的需求可能比我们预期的还要乐观。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">并且，AI的发展影响了上游芯片端的供需变化，加速库存出清，</font><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">存储芯片的价量反转开始反映在营收上。</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">公司主要产品DRAM bit出货量和平均售价都实现了环比增长；NAND bit平均售价环比增长超30%。</font></p><div><img cms-height=\"297.547\" cms-width=\"644\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20240408s/779/w1080h499/20240408/5abe-9ec8ff0ef41f4e5baeaa1744e03d06d1.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center strong-Bold\">02</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">市场最关心的HBM，</font><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">正逐渐成为存储行业巨头实现业绩反转的胜负手。</font></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">继去年SK海力士三季度相关业务首次扭亏为盈后，AI带来的热潮远没有停下来的意思。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">HBM存储器以其高带宽、低功耗和高容量的特点，成为支持复杂AI计算任务的理想选择。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">随着人工智能（AI）技术的快速发展，CPU和GPU作为服务器的算力核心，其性能和配置也在不断升级以满足日益增长的计算需求。这种升级不仅体现在处理器的核心数、主频和线程数量上，还体现在对存储器容量和价值量的需求上。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">例如，英伟达训练型AI服务器中的CPU DRAM容量可高达2TB，而单个GPU通常搭载80GB以上的HBM存储器。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">预计AI服务器的HBM总容量将超过640GB，总内存容量相比普通服务器有4到8倍的提升。仅CPU内存的价值量预计就有5倍的提升，而GPU的HBM则是一个全新的增量市场。</p><div><img cms-height=\"229.562\" cms-width=\"644\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20240408s/665/w1080h385/20240408/8668-b26d9884a76fae32568d498f2a136985.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">目前，英伟达基于Blackwell GPU 架构的下一代AI系统，HBM3E需求增加了33%，延续了每个GPU 的 HBM 内容稳步增加的趋势。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">需求如此旺盛，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>因此大幅提高了HBM总市场规模预估，从22年的23亿美元增长到26年的230亿美元，4年10倍，每年的复合增长率高达77%。</font></p><div><img cms-height=\"370.891\" cms-width=\"644\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20240408s/102/w1080h622/20240408/bcb0-04b17c290dcbdfd2b5ab5aac45b850f1.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">如今，全球的HBM市场基本被韩国的SK海力士、三星，和美国美光瓜分，其中SK海力士占比一半，美光大概在5%左右。竞争格局上，SK海力士有先发优势，不过美光的HBM 3E价格和良率已经很接近SK海力士。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">上个季度美光开始量产并确认了第一笔收入，在财报电话会上，美光透露HBM3E将供给英伟达的H200，</font><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">今年的产能已全部卖光，明年的大部分产能也已经被预定。</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">也就是说，整个2024财年HBM的业绩贡献确定性极高，并且将对整体毛利率产生积极影响。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">这也是高盛因此看好美光会后来居上的原因，</font><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">预计到2025年，美光HBM的市占率仍有上升潜力。</font></font></p><div><img cms-height=\"452.578\" cms-width=\"644\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20240408s/239/w1080h759/20240408/82b5-21adbbd550cc4cf683ba5f5892f82f3c.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">另外，虽然传统服务器可能会同时使用机械硬盘和固态硬盘（SSD），但AI服务器基本全部使用SSD，以获得更快的读写速度和更高的可靠性。这一转变使得AI服务器的整体存储价值量相比普通服务器预计提升约10倍。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">AI除了激活某类特定内存芯片的需求，实际上也有作用于整个芯片供需的外溢作用。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">从供需关系上看，由于AI服务器需求推动HBM、DDR5 和数据中心SSD的快速增长，同时挤占了其他消费领域的芯片供应，这对所有存储终端市场的定价都产生了影响。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">例如，三星刚刚宣布二季度将企业级SSD价格，在一季度价格基础上上调20%-25%，比原计划的15%更高。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">如果DRAM和NAND的定价水平在2024年还会进一步上涨，按照美光的业绩指引，存储厂商今年、明年的收入和盈利将有可能创出历史新高，周期复苏是美光股价背后更大的主旋律。</p><div><img cms-height=\"274.281\" cms-width=\"644\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20240408s/740/w1080h460/20240408/0bbe-a68d80b5d9db2bbe0371b7f39f04055c.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center strong-Bold\">03</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\"></font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">目前全球NAND Flash市场以三星、SK海力士、铠侠、美光、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>5家厂商为主，全球DRAM市场则由三星、SK海力士、美光三分天下，是周期复苏的绝对受益标的。</font></p><div><img cms-height=\"454.375\" cms-width=\"644\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20240408s/242/w1080h762/20240408/1124-d2590982d14ae24c50921d738a4b1391.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">隶属于DRAM的HBM需求尤其强劲，与大客户英伟达GPU绑定的HBM需求已经在美光目前的股价上有所体现。HBM对于这轮存储周期而言，或许是锦上添花，公司已经把能卖的HBM卖完了。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">存储芯片是半导体芯片第二大细分品类，有着接近1/4的占比。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">从近20年的发展来看，下游新需求的涌现往往是促进芯片销售额增长的关键<span>驱动力</span><span></span>，之前是服务器、PC，再到手机、平板电脑、云计算领域，现在AI大模型将再次开启内容存量升级的新周期。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">上一轮存储芯片周期大概在2021年2-3季度见顶回落，经历了两年左右的下行周期。自去年9月以来，DRAM和NAND的现货价格开始触底回升，从去年10月到今年2月，部分现货价格反弹幅度达到20%以上。</p><div><img cms-height=\"404.875\" cms-width=\"644\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20240408s/159/w1080h679/20240408/0cd3-0dcde34777774d0c40e3847c09d5f175.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">比较早的涨价信号发生在去年12月7日，西部数据向客户发出涨价通知信，强调未来几季NAND芯片产品价格将呈现周期性上涨，预期累计涨幅高达55%。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">供给端的收缩致使未来供需结构逐步改善，有望驱动存储周期再度上行。行业资本开支增速从22年10开始向下调整，三大存储巨头连续宣布减产。比如美光2023年的资本开支同比减少42%，为保利润2024年还要进一步减产30%。</p><div><img cms-height=\"405.469\" cms-width=\"644\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20240408s/160/w1080h680/20240408/cc71-f9c3037a1d4a0a6229a5f1530df21e99.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">另一方面，由于大多数智能终端市场开始复苏，进一步增加对芯片库存的消耗，美光预期2024年DRAM、NAND产业供给都将低于需求。也就是说，在整个2024年，DRAM和NAND的价格将进一步上涨。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">去年四季度，全球智能手机出货量同比增长8%，PC出货量同比增3%。</p><div><img cms-height=\"425.75\" cms-width=\"644\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20240408s/194/w1080h714/20240408/ce7a-0f0cee84d1685af45f1fa9dcac597233.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">今年，这些应用领域都有AI的加持，未来或需要容量更大的内存芯片。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">据Counterpoint预测，2024年全球智能手机出货量同比+3%。去年智能手机的高端市场逆势增长，随着中端机用户成为旗舰机消费人群的比例上升，对高容量UFS4.0和LPDDR5/5X存储芯片的需求相应增加。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">AI PC可作为笔电的高端化产品，数据处理量的增加需要匹配传输和存储规格，带宽更高，内存容量更大，且更低功耗的DDR5将逐步取代DDR4。据Canalys预测，2024年全年出货量预计增长8%，AI PC的渗透率可达到19%。</p><div><img cms-height=\"416.203\" cms-width=\"644\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20240408s/178/w1080h698/20240408/fd85-3c70e683108355220c84cba7ecedf9d8.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">产能、需求、库存、价格等指标预示着，存储芯片周期即将开启上升周期了。从业绩指引可以看出，美光对于下游需求复苏和周期节奏是比较有把握的。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">业绩和估值的高度，</font><font cms-style=\"font-L color210\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">或许最终取决于这轮周期复苏的力度。</font></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center strong-Bold\">04</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">作为典型的周期股，美光遵循着3年左右的周期起落，其中上升周期2年，下降周期1年。从近10年美光季度营收与股价走势看，股价一般会提前1-2个季度反应，见下图：</p><div><img cms-height=\"777\" cms-width=\"636\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20240408s/613/w636h777/20240408/387a-32a89ee3f3d6c82b8d032ec7a3015746.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">而目前，美光从2022年Q4开始的上行周期，至今走了一年多，虽然股价大涨了一倍多，峰值已经比2021年的周期顶峰要高，但过去每一次顶峰，公司的股价高点都在逐次提升，对应的是营收的抬升（2021年除外），证明市场需求在每一次周期中都有增长。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">从营收上看，美光尚未达到这一轮周期的峰值，股价大概算刚爬到半山腰。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">相比主要在韩国上市的SK海力士、三星，美光几乎是美股市场上唯一的HBM存储概念厂商。这也是华尔街大行，包括高盛、花旗、美银等，都看好美光的重要原因。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">而一旦下游某个需求超预期复苏，芯片价格还有可能加速上涨。当市场叙事从“AI存力”转向“整体存储周期复苏”时，股票可能会更积极地反应。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">目前的AI正处于前期的基建阶段，算力依然是最好的投资方向。加上存储相比GPU，对需求的判断有滞后效应，错过飙涨五倍的英伟达，押注第二波赢家的机会值得把握。</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">（全文完）</font></p>\n<div>\n<span>股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你&gt;&gt;</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n押注AI的第二波大赢家\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-08 17:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2024-04-08/doc-inarcpaq7236769.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源：格隆汇去年至今，AI浪潮让股民从英伟达这类“卖铲人”身上赚取超过五倍的泼天财富。但人工智能的影响力正在蔓延，第一梯队赢家所在的算力市场快速增长，同时也给第二梯队的供应商创造了需求，比如说，存力。如今这个领域随着潜在市场空间的扩大，以及业绩爆发式增长的兑现在不断推动估值水涨船高。比如凭借高带宽存储器（HBM）的现实需求贴上AI标签的美光科技的股价触底反弹了150%，近期在交出一份扭亏为盈的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2024-04-08/doc-inarcpaq7236769.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","SSD":"Simpson Manufacturing Co","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","MU":"美光科技","IE00B7SZLL34.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD-H","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU0889566641.SGD":"FTSF - Templeton Shariah Global Equity A Acc SGD","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","HBM":"HudBay Minerals Inc","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4168":"多种金属与采矿","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2024-04-08/doc-inarcpaq7236769.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2425796632","content_text":"来源：格隆汇去年至今，AI浪潮让股民从英伟达这类“卖铲人”身上赚取超过五倍的泼天财富。但人工智能的影响力正在蔓延，第一梯队赢家所在的算力市场快速增长，同时也给第二梯队的供应商创造了需求，比如说，存力。如今这个领域随着潜在市场空间的扩大，以及业绩爆发式增长的兑现在不断推动估值水涨船高。比如凭借高带宽存储器（HBM）的现实需求贴上AI标签的美光科技的股价触底反弹了150%，近期在交出一份扭亏为盈的成绩单后，市值迅速突破了历史新高。除了它，目前能供应的HBM的两大巨头，包括三星、SK海力士，韩股市值稳居前二。内存芯片周期加速复苏的预期日益兑现，对去年仍在大规模亏损的存储芯片巨头而言，改变命运的时刻已经到来。01周期轮动对于市场地位突出的巨头而言，就是把上个周期亏掉的钱赚回来。上月美光公布了2024第二财季（2023年12月，2024年1-2月）的业绩表现，业绩最大的亮点莫过于，在原本还要承受一个季度的亏损的指引下，美光利润竟然奇迹般的扭亏为盈。营收同比猛增58%，至58.2亿美元，NON-GAAP基准下的每股收益为42美分，相比营收预期约为53.5亿美元，每股亏损24美分的市场预期，可谓全面碾压。要知道去年同期，美光曾经创下二十年来单季度的最大亏损。营收同比下降53%，亏损23.1亿美元，其中包括14亿美元的库存损失，每股亏损2.12美元。仅仅过去一年，美光就从泥沼中爬起来了。通过业绩证明了投资者的猜想，作为算力三大要素之一（计算、存储、网络通信）的存力，AI对于存储芯片的需求可能比我们预期的还要乐观。并且，AI的发展影响了上游芯片端的供需变化，加速库存出清，存储芯片的价量反转开始反映在营收上。公司主要产品DRAM bit出货量和平均售价都实现了环比增长；NAND bit平均售价环比增长超30%。02市场最关心的HBM，正逐渐成为存储行业巨头实现业绩反转的胜负手。继去年SK海力士三季度相关业务首次扭亏为盈后，AI带来的热潮远没有停下来的意思。HBM存储器以其高带宽、低功耗和高容量的特点，成为支持复杂AI计算任务的理想选择。随着人工智能（AI）技术的快速发展，CPU和GPU作为服务器的算力核心，其性能和配置也在不断升级以满足日益增长的计算需求。这种升级不仅体现在处理器的核心数、主频和线程数量上，还体现在对存储器容量和价值量的需求上。例如，英伟达训练型AI服务器中的CPU DRAM容量可高达2TB，而单个GPU通常搭载80GB以上的HBM存储器。预计AI服务器的HBM总容量将超过640GB，总内存容量相比普通服务器有4到8倍的提升。仅CPU内存的价值量预计就有5倍的提升，而GPU的HBM则是一个全新的增量市场。目前，英伟达基于Blackwell GPU 架构的下一代AI系统，HBM3E需求增加了33%，延续了每个GPU 的 HBM 内容稳步增加的趋势。需求如此旺盛，高盛因此大幅提高了HBM总市场规模预估，从22年的23亿美元增长到26年的230亿美元，4年10倍，每年的复合增长率高达77%。如今，全球的HBM市场基本被韩国的SK海力士、三星，和美国美光瓜分，其中SK海力士占比一半，美光大概在5%左右。竞争格局上，SK海力士有先发优势，不过美光的HBM 3E价格和良率已经很接近SK海力士。上个季度美光开始量产并确认了第一笔收入，在财报电话会上，美光透露HBM3E将供给英伟达的H200，今年的产能已全部卖光，明年的大部分产能也已经被预定。也就是说，整个2024财年HBM的业绩贡献确定性极高，并且将对整体毛利率产生积极影响。这也是高盛因此看好美光会后来居上的原因，预计到2025年，美光HBM的市占率仍有上升潜力。另外，虽然传统服务器可能会同时使用机械硬盘和固态硬盘（SSD），但AI服务器基本全部使用SSD，以获得更快的读写速度和更高的可靠性。这一转变使得AI服务器的整体存储价值量相比普通服务器预计提升约10倍。AI除了激活某类特定内存芯片的需求，实际上也有作用于整个芯片供需的外溢作用。从供需关系上看，由于AI服务器需求推动HBM、DDR5 和数据中心SSD的快速增长，同时挤占了其他消费领域的芯片供应，这对所有存储终端市场的定价都产生了影响。例如，三星刚刚宣布二季度将企业级SSD价格，在一季度价格基础上上调20%-25%，比原计划的15%更高。如果DRAM和NAND的定价水平在2024年还会进一步上涨，按照美光的业绩指引，存储厂商今年、明年的收入和盈利将有可能创出历史新高，周期复苏是美光股价背后更大的主旋律。03目前全球NAND Flash市场以三星、SK海力士、铠侠、美光、西部数据5家厂商为主，全球DRAM市场则由三星、SK海力士、美光三分天下，是周期复苏的绝对受益标的。隶属于DRAM的HBM需求尤其强劲，与大客户英伟达GPU绑定的HBM需求已经在美光目前的股价上有所体现。HBM对于这轮存储周期而言，或许是锦上添花，公司已经把能卖的HBM卖完了。存储芯片是半导体芯片第二大细分品类，有着接近1/4的占比。从近20年的发展来看，下游新需求的涌现往往是促进芯片销售额增长的关键驱动力，之前是服务器、PC，再到手机、平板电脑、云计算领域，现在AI大模型将再次开启内容存量升级的新周期。上一轮存储芯片周期大概在2021年2-3季度见顶回落，经历了两年左右的下行周期。自去年9月以来，DRAM和NAND的现货价格开始触底回升，从去年10月到今年2月，部分现货价格反弹幅度达到20%以上。比较早的涨价信号发生在去年12月7日，西部数据向客户发出涨价通知信，强调未来几季NAND芯片产品价格将呈现周期性上涨，预期累计涨幅高达55%。供给端的收缩致使未来供需结构逐步改善，有望驱动存储周期再度上行。行业资本开支增速从22年10开始向下调整，三大存储巨头连续宣布减产。比如美光2023年的资本开支同比减少42%，为保利润2024年还要进一步减产30%。另一方面，由于大多数智能终端市场开始复苏，进一步增加对芯片库存的消耗，美光预期2024年DRAM、NAND产业供给都将低于需求。也就是说，在整个2024年，DRAM和NAND的价格将进一步上涨。去年四季度，全球智能手机出货量同比增长8%，PC出货量同比增3%。今年，这些应用领域都有AI的加持，未来或需要容量更大的内存芯片。据Counterpoint预测，2024年全球智能手机出货量同比+3%。去年智能手机的高端市场逆势增长，随着中端机用户成为旗舰机消费人群的比例上升，对高容量UFS4.0和LPDDR5/5X存储芯片的需求相应增加。AI PC可作为笔电的高端化产品，数据处理量的增加需要匹配传输和存储规格，带宽更高，内存容量更大，且更低功耗的DDR5将逐步取代DDR4。据Canalys预测，2024年全年出货量预计增长8%，AI PC的渗透率可达到19%。产能、需求、库存、价格等指标预示着，存储芯片周期即将开启上升周期了。从业绩指引可以看出，美光对于下游需求复苏和周期节奏是比较有把握的。业绩和估值的高度，或许最终取决于这轮周期复苏的力度。04作为典型的周期股，美光遵循着3年左右的周期起落，其中上升周期2年，下降周期1年。从近10年美光季度营收与股价走势看，股价一般会提前1-2个季度反应，见下图：而目前，美光从2022年Q4开始的上行周期，至今走了一年多，虽然股价大涨了一倍多，峰值已经比2021年的周期顶峰要高，但过去每一次顶峰，公司的股价高点都在逐次提升，对应的是营收的抬升（2021年除外），证明市场需求在每一次周期中都有增长。从营收上看，美光尚未达到这一轮周期的峰值，股价大概算刚爬到半山腰。相比主要在韩国上市的SK海力士、三星，美光几乎是美股市场上唯一的HBM存储概念厂商。这也是华尔街大行，包括高盛、花旗、美银等，都看好美光的重要原因。而一旦下游某个需求超预期复苏，芯片价格还有可能加速上涨。当市场叙事从“AI存力”转向“整体存储周期复苏”时，股票可能会更积极地反应。目前的AI正处于前期的基建阶段，算力依然是最好的投资方向。加上存储相比GPU，对需求的判断有滞后效应，错过飙涨五倍的英伟达，押注第二波赢家的机会值得把握。（全文完）\n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你>>\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":292436743766200,"gmtCreate":1712421708581,"gmtModify":1712421712405,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"公司盈利也有相当大的增长空间。华尔街分析师目前预计，今年标普500指数成份股公司的盈利将增长11%，2023年这一数字仅为2%。分析师普遍预计，明年标普500指数成份股公司的盈利将增长13%，这不是熊市的构成要素。","listText":"公司盈利也有相当大的增长空间。华尔街分析师目前预计，今年标普500指数成份股公司的盈利将增长11%，2023年这一数字仅为2%。分析师普遍预计，明年标普500指数成份股公司的盈利将增长13%，这不是熊市的构成要素。","text":"公司盈利也有相当大的增长空间。华尔街分析师目前预计，今年标普500指数成份股公司的盈利将增长11%，2023年这一数字仅为2%。分析师普遍预计，明年标普500指数成份股公司的盈利将增长13%，这不是熊市的构成要素。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/292436743766200","repostId":"284307310821392","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":284307310821392,"gmtCreate":1710427340549,"gmtModify":1710440670696,"author":{"id":"3524030243818067","authorId":"3524030243818067","name":"巴伦周刊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a88e8bd37e8c66a6dfdca78e1466369","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"哪怕不降息，美股也能继续走牛 | 巴伦封面","htmlText":"美股的上涨动力已经从降息变为更强劲的经济增长。 投资者讲给自己的故事发生了变化，涨幅最大的股票也正在随之变化，但有一件事没变：美国股市还会继续走出牛市。 自2020年3月以来，标普500指数已经上涨了130%并创下历史新高，目前该指数的12个月预期市盈率为21倍，估值很高。过去一年美国股市的上涨主要是因为“七巨头”的出色表现。此外，目前华尔街普遍认为美联储将推迟降息的时间，直到官员们确信通胀已经充分得到控制。&nbsp; 上述因素和其他一些因素很容易导致美国股市出现一次短期回调（即下跌10%），毕竟，自1929年以来，美国股市平均每年都会出现一次回调，这一次的回调早就该出现了。&nbsp; 如果回调到来，将为投资者带来一个买入的机会。股市的持续上涨将不再取决于美联储降息，而是取决于经济前景，强劲的经济增长将为更多公司带来更多盈利增长，届时将有更多股票参与上涨。&nbsp; 摩根士丹利投资管理(Morgan Stanley Investment Management)投资组合经理安德鲁·斯利蒙(Andrew Slimmon)说：“经济持续稳定增长利好公司盈利，也意味着美联储可以更加从容不迫地降息，如果美联储马上就要降息，我会担心这会是因为经济正在放缓，经济放缓将危及我们对盈利增长的预期。”&nbsp; 经济增长将推动更多股票上涨&nbsp; 目前美国经济没有出现太多放缓迹象。2023年美国实际GDP增长了2.5%，那些说去年美国经济将陷入衰退、或者将爆发一场严重银行业危机的人的预测全面落空。彭博(Bloomberg)跟踪的经济学家的普遍预测显示，2024年美国GDP有望再增长2.1%，2025年GDP增长率将降至1.7%。&nbsp; 保持乐观 经济学家对美国经济增长前景一直过于悲观。 经季节因素调整后的美国实际GDP年化增长率 蓝色：经济学家的预测值 绿色：GDP实际增长","listText":"美股的上涨动力已经从降息变为更强劲的经济增长。 投资者讲给自己的故事发生了变化，涨幅最大的股票也正在随之变化，但有一件事没变：美国股市还会继续走出牛市。 自2020年3月以来，标普500指数已经上涨了130%并创下历史新高，目前该指数的12个月预期市盈率为21倍，估值很高。过去一年美国股市的上涨主要是因为“七巨头”的出色表现。此外，目前华尔街普遍认为美联储将推迟降息的时间，直到官员们确信通胀已经充分得到控制。&nbsp; 上述因素和其他一些因素很容易导致美国股市出现一次短期回调（即下跌10%），毕竟，自1929年以来，美国股市平均每年都会出现一次回调，这一次的回调早就该出现了。&nbsp; 如果回调到来，将为投资者带来一个买入的机会。股市的持续上涨将不再取决于美联储降息，而是取决于经济前景，强劲的经济增长将为更多公司带来更多盈利增长，届时将有更多股票参与上涨。&nbsp; 摩根士丹利投资管理(Morgan Stanley Investment Management)投资组合经理安德鲁·斯利蒙(Andrew Slimmon)说：“经济持续稳定增长利好公司盈利，也意味着美联储可以更加从容不迫地降息，如果美联储马上就要降息，我会担心这会是因为经济正在放缓，经济放缓将危及我们对盈利增长的预期。”&nbsp; 经济增长将推动更多股票上涨&nbsp; 目前美国经济没有出现太多放缓迹象。2023年美国实际GDP增长了2.5%，那些说去年美国经济将陷入衰退、或者将爆发一场严重银行业危机的人的预测全面落空。彭博(Bloomberg)跟踪的经济学家的普遍预测显示，2024年美国GDP有望再增长2.1%，2025年GDP增长率将降至1.7%。&nbsp; 保持乐观 经济学家对美国经济增长前景一直过于悲观。 经季节因素调整后的美国实际GDP年化增长率 蓝色：经济学家的预测值 绿色：GDP实际增长","text":"美股的上涨动力已经从降息变为更强劲的经济增长。 投资者讲给自己的故事发生了变化，涨幅最大的股票也正在随之变化，但有一件事没变：美国股市还会继续走出牛市。 自2020年3月以来，标普500指数已经上涨了130%并创下历史新高，目前该指数的12个月预期市盈率为21倍，估值很高。过去一年美国股市的上涨主要是因为“七巨头”的出色表现。此外，目前华尔街普遍认为美联储将推迟降息的时间，直到官员们确信通胀已经充分得到控制。 上述因素和其他一些因素很容易导致美国股市出现一次短期回调（即下跌10%），毕竟，自1929年以来，美国股市平均每年都会出现一次回调，这一次的回调早就该出现了。 如果回调到来，将为投资者带来一个买入的机会。股市的持续上涨将不再取决于美联储降息，而是取决于经济前景，强劲的经济增长将为更多公司带来更多盈利增长，届时将有更多股票参与上涨。 摩根士丹利投资管理(Morgan Stanley Investment Management)投资组合经理安德鲁·斯利蒙(Andrew Slimmon)说：“经济持续稳定增长利好公司盈利，也意味着美联储可以更加从容不迫地降息，如果美联储马上就要降息，我会担心这会是因为经济正在放缓，经济放缓将危及我们对盈利增长的预期。” 经济增长将推动更多股票上涨 目前美国经济没有出现太多放缓迹象。2023年美国实际GDP增长了2.5%，那些说去年美国经济将陷入衰退、或者将爆发一场严重银行业危机的人的预测全面落空。彭博(Bloomberg)跟踪的经济学家的普遍预测显示，2024年美国GDP有望再增长2.1%，2025年GDP增长率将降至1.7%。 保持乐观 经济学家对美国经济增长前景一直过于悲观。 经季节因素调整后的美国实际GDP年化增长率 蓝色：经济学家的预测值 绿色：GDP实际增长","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da446436f6fc40b2b9994e972348ee46"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca824ea05a0e454183962150969680ef"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3688b9c28a39401caacf217c071e34a7"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/284307310821392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":291815772090432,"gmtCreate":1712270029398,"gmtModify":1712270033936,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"在2021年下半年，纳斯达克的宽度开始下降，尽管该指数继续上涨；这种背离预示着2022年的熊市","listText":"在2021年下半年，纳斯达克的宽度开始下降，尽管该指数继续上涨；这种背离预示着2022年的熊市","text":"在2021年下半年，纳斯达克的宽度开始下降，尽管该指数继续上涨；这种背离预示着2022年的熊市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/291815772090432","repostId":"2425310954","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2425310954","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1712250000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2425310954?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-05 01:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"What Does the Breadth of the Nasdaq's Bull Run Tell Us? To Be Wary -- Journal Report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2425310954","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Stocks are off to a rousing start in 2024, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index hitting record highs in March as optimism about a soft landing for the U.S. economy fuels bullish sentiment.But this record run hasn't come from an especially broad front. A handful of megacap stocks -- known collectively as the Magnificent Seven tech stocks -- are responsible for much of the S&P 500's gains this year, just as they were last year. Two of the Magnificent Seven alone, Facebook parent Meta Platforms and chip maker Nvidia, have accounted for more than a third of the index's 10% year-to-date gains as of March 28. Such a concentration indicates investors may be reluctant to get into anything other than the biggest names.\"Market breadth\" indicators -- technical yardsticks that give clues to the broadness of stock gains and the market's underlying health -- suggest investors should stay on guard against a downturn even as leading growth stocks continue to perfor","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n  By Ken Shreve \n</p>\n<p>\n  Stocks are off to a rousing start in 2024, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index hitting record highs in March as optimism about a soft landing for the U.S. economy fuels bullish sentiment. \n</p>\n<p>\n     But this record run hasn't come from an especially broad front. A handful of megacap stocks -- known collectively as the Magnificent Seven tech stocks -- are responsible for much of the S&amp;P 500's gains this year, just as they were last year. Two of the Magnificent Seven alone, Facebook parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> and chip maker Nvidia, have accounted for more than a third of the index's 10% year-to-date gains as of March 28. Such a concentration indicates investors may be reluctant to get into anything other than the biggest names. \n</p>\n<p>\n     \"Market breadth\" indicators -- technical yardsticks that give clues to the broadness of stock gains and the market's underlying health -- suggest investors should stay on guard against a downturn even as leading growth stocks continue to perform well. \n</p>\n<p>\n     What is market breadth, and what do you need to know about it? \n</p>\n<p>\n     Market breadth, in a nutshell, tells investors whether a rising stock market has a strong foundation or is resting on just a few stocks. Widening breadth -- that is, the rally includes an increasing number of stocks -- can serve as affirmation of a rally, suggesting that a stock-market uptrend is gathering momentum. Waning breadth, on the other hand, can be a sign that a rally is on shaky ground. In the latter part of 2021, for example, the Nasdaq's breadth started to flag, even as the index continued to advance; that divergence presaged the 2022 bear market. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Signs to watch include: \n</p>\n<pre>\n   -- Recent performance of the three major market indexes: the S&amp;P 500, the \n      Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Are they all \n      participating in the rally, or is one carrying the load? \n \n   -- The behavior of the Russell 2000 small-cap index. If the Russell is \n      performing well, it suggests investors are embracing riskier companies \n      and widening their trading horizons beyond the biggest gainers or the \n      biggest companies. \n \n   -- Advance-decline lines, which show the trend in the number of stocks \n      rising versus falling each day on the Nasdaq Stock Market and New York \n      Stock Exchange. The more stocks that participate in a bull-market rally, \n      the stronger the foundation and the greater the potential for a sustained \n      advance. \n \n   -- The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs and lows. In a strong market, \n      new highs should exceed new lows. \n</pre>\n<p>\n     Armed with this knowledge, investors could see some signs that the Nasdaq's five-month advance may be on shaky ground. \n</p>\n<p>\n     To be sure, the Nasdaq's advance-decline line started off strong when the bull market returned in November. Many more stocks beyond the Magnificent Seven started to outperform, including healthcare, financial and consumer companies. \n</p>\n<p>\n     But the advance-decline line has been trending lower since January as fewer stocks have participated in the Nasdaq's upturn. Megastocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon.com and Meta Platforms continue their market leadership as they hold near highs. These four stocks make up about 27% of the Nasdaq Composite. \n</p>\n<p>\n     What's more, the 10-day moving average of new highs on the Nasdaq recently started trending lower. And the 10-day moving average of new lows started to swing higher. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Market breadth should expand in the early stages of a new bull market -- as has been the case on the Big Board. The advance-decline line for NYSE-listed stocks is still in an uptrend, helped by relative outperformance from oil-and-gas, financial, healthcare and some retailing stocks. Broad-based industry and sector leadership is a hallmark of a healthy market. \n</p>\n<p>\n     None of this means the Nasdaq rally is dead, or will die soon, but investors should pay heed to the weakening breadth. Monitoring the signs of market breadth is the best way to stay attuned with underlying market sentiment. And right now, breadth on the Nasdaq is suspect. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Ken Shreve is a senior markets writer at Investor's Business Daily. Follow him on X @IBD_KShreve for more stock-market analysis and insights, or contact him at ken.shreve@investors.com. \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  April 04, 2024 13:00 ET (17:00 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Does the Breadth of the Nasdaq's Bull Run Tell Us? To Be Wary -- Journal Report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Does the Breadth of the Nasdaq's Bull Run Tell Us? To Be Wary -- Journal Report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-04-05 01:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n  By Ken Shreve \n</p>\n<p>\n  Stocks are off to a rousing start in 2024, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index hitting record highs in March as optimism about a soft landing for the U.S. economy fuels bullish sentiment. \n</p>\n<p>\n     But this record run hasn't come from an especially broad front. A handful of megacap stocks -- known collectively as the Magnificent Seven tech stocks -- are responsible for much of the S&amp;P 500's gains this year, just as they were last year. Two of the Magnificent Seven alone, Facebook parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> and chip maker Nvidia, have accounted for more than a third of the index's 10% year-to-date gains as of March 28. Such a concentration indicates investors may be reluctant to get into anything other than the biggest names. \n</p>\n<p>\n     \"Market breadth\" indicators -- technical yardsticks that give clues to the broadness of stock gains and the market's underlying health -- suggest investors should stay on guard against a downturn even as leading growth stocks continue to perform well. \n</p>\n<p>\n     What is market breadth, and what do you need to know about it? \n</p>\n<p>\n     Market breadth, in a nutshell, tells investors whether a rising stock market has a strong foundation or is resting on just a few stocks. Widening breadth -- that is, the rally includes an increasing number of stocks -- can serve as affirmation of a rally, suggesting that a stock-market uptrend is gathering momentum. Waning breadth, on the other hand, can be a sign that a rally is on shaky ground. In the latter part of 2021, for example, the Nasdaq's breadth started to flag, even as the index continued to advance; that divergence presaged the 2022 bear market. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Signs to watch include: \n</p>\n<pre>\n   -- Recent performance of the three major market indexes: the S&amp;P 500, the \n      Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Are they all \n      participating in the rally, or is one carrying the load? \n \n   -- The behavior of the Russell 2000 small-cap index. If the Russell is \n      performing well, it suggests investors are embracing riskier companies \n      and widening their trading horizons beyond the biggest gainers or the \n      biggest companies. \n \n   -- Advance-decline lines, which show the trend in the number of stocks \n      rising versus falling each day on the Nasdaq Stock Market and New York \n      Stock Exchange. The more stocks that participate in a bull-market rally, \n      the stronger the foundation and the greater the potential for a sustained \n      advance. \n \n   -- The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs and lows. In a strong market, \n      new highs should exceed new lows. \n</pre>\n<p>\n     Armed with this knowledge, investors could see some signs that the Nasdaq's five-month advance may be on shaky ground. \n</p>\n<p>\n     To be sure, the Nasdaq's advance-decline line started off strong when the bull market returned in November. Many more stocks beyond the Magnificent Seven started to outperform, including healthcare, financial and consumer companies. \n</p>\n<p>\n     But the advance-decline line has been trending lower since January as fewer stocks have participated in the Nasdaq's upturn. Megastocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon.com and Meta Platforms continue their market leadership as they hold near highs. These four stocks make up about 27% of the Nasdaq Composite. \n</p>\n<p>\n     What's more, the 10-day moving average of new highs on the Nasdaq recently started trending lower. And the 10-day moving average of new lows started to swing higher. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Market breadth should expand in the early stages of a new bull market -- as has been the case on the Big Board. The advance-decline line for NYSE-listed stocks is still in an uptrend, helped by relative outperformance from oil-and-gas, financial, healthcare and some retailing stocks. Broad-based industry and sector leadership is a hallmark of a healthy market. \n</p>\n<p>\n     None of this means the Nasdaq rally is dead, or will die soon, but investors should pay heed to the weakening breadth. Monitoring the signs of market breadth is the best way to stay attuned with underlying market sentiment. And right now, breadth on the Nasdaq is suspect. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Ken Shreve is a senior markets writer at Investor's Business Daily. Follow him on X @IBD_KShreve for more stock-market analysis and insights, or contact him at ken.shreve@investors.com. \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  April 04, 2024 13:00 ET (17:00 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","NVDA":"英伟达","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","NDAQ":"纳斯达克OMX交易所","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2425310954","content_text":"By Ken Shreve \n\n\n  Stocks are off to a rousing start in 2024, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index hitting record highs in March as optimism about a soft landing for the U.S. economy fuels bullish sentiment. \n\n\n     But this record run hasn't come from an especially broad front. A handful of megacap stocks -- known collectively as the Magnificent Seven tech stocks -- are responsible for much of the S&P 500's gains this year, just as they were last year. Two of the Magnificent Seven alone, Facebook parent Meta Platforms and chip maker Nvidia, have accounted for more than a third of the index's 10% year-to-date gains as of March 28. Such a concentration indicates investors may be reluctant to get into anything other than the biggest names. \n\n\n     \"Market breadth\" indicators -- technical yardsticks that give clues to the broadness of stock gains and the market's underlying health -- suggest investors should stay on guard against a downturn even as leading growth stocks continue to perform well. \n\n\n     What is market breadth, and what do you need to know about it? \n\n\n     Market breadth, in a nutshell, tells investors whether a rising stock market has a strong foundation or is resting on just a few stocks. Widening breadth -- that is, the rally includes an increasing number of stocks -- can serve as affirmation of a rally, suggesting that a stock-market uptrend is gathering momentum. Waning breadth, on the other hand, can be a sign that a rally is on shaky ground. In the latter part of 2021, for example, the Nasdaq's breadth started to flag, even as the index continued to advance; that divergence presaged the 2022 bear market. \n\n\n     Signs to watch include: \n\n\n   -- Recent performance of the three major market indexes: the S&P 500, the \n      Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Are they all \n      participating in the rally, or is one carrying the load? \n \n   -- The behavior of the Russell 2000 small-cap index. If the Russell is \n      performing well, it suggests investors are embracing riskier companies \n      and widening their trading horizons beyond the biggest gainers or the \n      biggest companies. \n \n   -- Advance-decline lines, which show the trend in the number of stocks \n      rising versus falling each day on the Nasdaq Stock Market and New York \n      Stock Exchange. The more stocks that participate in a bull-market rally, \n      the stronger the foundation and the greater the potential for a sustained \n      advance. \n \n   -- The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs and lows. In a strong market, \n      new highs should exceed new lows. \n\n\n     Armed with this knowledge, investors could see some signs that the Nasdaq's five-month advance may be on shaky ground. \n\n\n     To be sure, the Nasdaq's advance-decline line started off strong when the bull market returned in November. Many more stocks beyond the Magnificent Seven started to outperform, including healthcare, financial and consumer companies. \n\n\n     But the advance-decline line has been trending lower since January as fewer stocks have participated in the Nasdaq's upturn. Megastocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon.com and Meta Platforms continue their market leadership as they hold near highs. These four stocks make up about 27% of the Nasdaq Composite. \n\n\n     What's more, the 10-day moving average of new highs on the Nasdaq recently started trending lower. And the 10-day moving average of new lows started to swing higher. \n\n\n     Market breadth should expand in the early stages of a new bull market -- as has been the case on the Big Board. The advance-decline line for NYSE-listed stocks is still in an uptrend, helped by relative outperformance from oil-and-gas, financial, healthcare and some retailing stocks. Broad-based industry and sector leadership is a hallmark of a healthy market. \n\n\n     None of this means the Nasdaq rally is dead, or will die soon, but investors should pay heed to the weakening breadth. Monitoring the signs of market breadth is the best way to stay attuned with underlying market sentiment. And right now, breadth on the Nasdaq is suspect. \n\n\n     Ken Shreve is a senior markets writer at Investor's Business Daily. Follow him on X @IBD_KShreve for more stock-market analysis and insights, or contact him at ken.shreve@investors.com. \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  April 04, 2024 13:00 ET (17:00 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":272368256942320,"gmtCreate":1707534045331,"gmtModify":1707534046311,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 能突破1000[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 能突破1000[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 能突破1000[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/272368256942320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":280353185988632,"gmtCreate":1709467017937,"gmtModify":1709467020042,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"非常客观，英伟达涨势远远没有结束，但是到了2025年尤其是下半年要特别注意风险。半导体下行周期到了。","listText":"非常客观，英伟达涨势远远没有结束，但是到了2025年尤其是下半年要特别注意风险。半导体下行周期到了。","text":"非常客观，英伟达涨势远远没有结束，但是到了2025年尤其是下半年要特别注意风险。半导体下行周期到了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/280353185988632","repostId":"2416695275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2416695275","pubTimestamp":1709381100,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2416695275?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-02 20:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock Still May Not Be Nearly As Expensive As You Think","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2416695275","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"There are risks for Nvidia's business, but the year ahead might yield some incredible business expansion.","content":"<html><body><ul>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Nvidia might be the smallest of the Magnificent Seven stocks as measured by sales, but it may not stay that way for long.</div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Nvidia could be sitting on massive profit potential in the coming years.</div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>That said, the stock still trades for a high premium, so new investors in particular should tread lightly.</div>\n</li>\n</ul><div><p><strong>Nvidia </strong><span>(NVDA<span> 4.00%</span>)</span> keeps going from strength to strength. It passed up mighty <strong>Alphabet </strong>and <strong>Amazon</strong> to become the third-most-valuable \"Magnificent Seven\" stock, and it briefly topped a $2 trillion market cap valuation. And yet, though it's the third largest business of the Magnificent Seven by market cap, it's still the smallest as measured by annual sales.</p><p>Some evidence of this fact is that Nvidia stock trades for a whopping 66 times trailing-12-month earnings per share. However, Nvidia may not be nearly as expensive as it appears to be, even after the stock's incredible 400%-plus run higher since the start of 2023. </p><div><app :collapse_on_load=\"false\" :instrument_id=\"204770\" :show_benchmark_compare=\"false\" amount_change=\"31.67\" average_volume=\"46,393,945\" company_name=\"Nvidia\" current_price=\"822.79\" daily_high=\"823.00\" daily_low=\"794.35\" default_period=\"OneYear\" dividend_yield=\"0.02%\" exchange=\"NASDAQ\" fifty_two_week_high=\"823.94\" fifty_two_week_low=\"222.97\" gross_margin=\"72.72\" logo=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/art/companylogos/mark/NVDA.png\" market_cap=\"$2,057B\" pe_ratio=\"68.93\" percent_change=\"4.00\" symbol=\"NVDA\" volume=\"47,913,510\"></app></div><h2>It's all about the future</h2><p>Much can be said about Nvidia's rise, the current data center investment supercycle driven by generative artificial intelligence (AI) that Nvidia helped spawn, and whether semiconductor peers can catch up and take some of Nvidia's market share.</p><p>But as far as Nvidia is concerned, calendar year 2024 (fiscal 2025 for Nvidia, the 12-month period that will end in January 2025) could be another epic year. After reporting full-year revenue of $60.9 billion, a 126% increase over the depressed results from calendar year 2022 during the bear market, management is forecasting $24 billion in sales for fiscal 2025's Q1, the three months that will end in April 2024. That's 40% of all of last year's sales in a single quarter. </p><p>CEO Jensen Huang said on the earnings call that Nvidia's supply of computing accelerator system parts is improving. However, Huang and company still expect overall demand this next year to be <em>higher </em>than what Nvidia and its partners can crank out. That implies quarterly sales could continue to tick higher from the end of Q1 and on. </p><div><div></div></div><p>But even if we simply annualize Nvidia's Q1 expected revenue, we arrive at just shy of $100 billion in this year's sales, about a 57% increase from last year. For the record, that would dramatically help Nvidia catch up to the other Magnificent Seven in terms of annual sales (see chart below).</p><p><img src=\"https://media.ycharts.com/charts/870f446d7767d8f83fa7dbecb255e7d1.png\"/></p><p>NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p><p>And if we factor for a bit of gross profit margin contraction, resulting from a benefit from favorable parts supply at the moment, annual operating expenses of $14 billion (the Q1 outlook for operating expenses of $3.5 billion multiplied by four), and a tax rate of 17%, Nvidia could be pacing toward $50 billion in operating income or more. That would be a 50% increase over last year. </p><p>Based on these back-of-the-envelope expectations, Nvidia stock is trading for about 35 to 40 times this year's earnings, far lower than the aforementioned 66 times trailing-12-month earnings ($2 trillion market cap divided by $50 billion in net income and/or free cash flow).</p><div><div></div></div><h2>How long can Nvidia keep growing?</h2><p>Of course, even this forward-looking earnings multiple hardly makes Nvidia stock cheap. Far from it, this valuation is in anticipation of Nvidia remaining in high-growth mode for quite some time. Wild estimates like seeing global AI infrastructure reach $400 billion in annual spending by 2027 -- an estimate <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> has cited a few times now, which assumes a roughly doubling in global data center value from $1 trillion this past year to $2 trillion in three years -- has many investors are putting gobs of cash on the line with this as an assumption. </p><p>But it's important to remember that Nvidia's business has always been cyclical -- periods of multi-year growth are followed by a year or two of contraction, before fresh highs are reached again. This isn't likely to change.</p><p>Thus, investors should be on guard for a significant slowdown, or even a pullback, in AI infrastructure spending, perhaps late this year or in 2025. That could send Nvidia stock spiraling, much as past cyclical downturns have done.</p><p><img src=\"https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9e528ee04bb790de5f6b95249f7f2802.png\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts.</p><div><div></div></div><p>Does that mean Nvidia stock is to be avoided right now? I'm not ready to say that just yet. If the AI infrastructure market does keep growing through 2027, Nvidia stock may not be done just yet. But given the current valuation, investors looking to get in on the action should be cautious. Consider using a dollar-cost average plan to scale into a position over time, taking advantage of any inevitable dips along the way. In the meantime, there are a lot of other great semiconductor stocks out there right now as well.</p><div></div></div></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock Still May Not Be Nearly As Expensive As You Think</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock Still May Not Be Nearly As Expensive As You Think\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-02 20:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/02/nvidia-stock-still-may-not-be-nearly-as-expensive/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia might be the smallest of the Magnificent Seven stocks as measured by sales, but it may not stay that way for long.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNvidia could be sitting on massive profit potential in the coming years...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/02/nvidia-stock-still-may-not-be-nearly-as-expensive/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F766988%2Fcloud-infrastructure-data-centers.jpg&op=resize&w=165&h=104","relate_stocks":{"IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","TTM":"塔塔汽车","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4523":"印度概念","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","BK4529":"IDC概念","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/02/nvidia-stock-still-may-not-be-nearly-as-expensive/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2416695275","content_text":"Nvidia might be the smallest of the Magnificent Seven stocks as measured by sales, but it may not stay that way for long.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNvidia could be sitting on massive profit potential in the coming years.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThat said, the stock still trades for a high premium, so new investors in particular should tread lightly.\n\nNvidia (NVDA 4.00%) keeps going from strength to strength. It passed up mighty Alphabet and Amazon to become the third-most-valuable \"Magnificent Seven\" stock, and it briefly topped a $2 trillion market cap valuation. And yet, though it's the third largest business of the Magnificent Seven by market cap, it's still the smallest as measured by annual sales.Some evidence of this fact is that Nvidia stock trades for a whopping 66 times trailing-12-month earnings per share. However, Nvidia may not be nearly as expensive as it appears to be, even after the stock's incredible 400%-plus run higher since the start of 2023. It's all about the futureMuch can be said about Nvidia's rise, the current data center investment supercycle driven by generative artificial intelligence (AI) that Nvidia helped spawn, and whether semiconductor peers can catch up and take some of Nvidia's market share.But as far as Nvidia is concerned, calendar year 2024 (fiscal 2025 for Nvidia, the 12-month period that will end in January 2025) could be another epic year. After reporting full-year revenue of $60.9 billion, a 126% increase over the depressed results from calendar year 2022 during the bear market, management is forecasting $24 billion in sales for fiscal 2025's Q1, the three months that will end in April 2024. That's 40% of all of last year's sales in a single quarter. CEO Jensen Huang said on the earnings call that Nvidia's supply of computing accelerator system parts is improving. However, Huang and company still expect overall demand this next year to be higher than what Nvidia and its partners can crank out. That implies quarterly sales could continue to tick higher from the end of Q1 and on. But even if we simply annualize Nvidia's Q1 expected revenue, we arrive at just shy of $100 billion in this year's sales, about a 57% increase from last year. For the record, that would dramatically help Nvidia catch up to the other Magnificent Seven in terms of annual sales (see chart below).NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YChartsAnd if we factor for a bit of gross profit margin contraction, resulting from a benefit from favorable parts supply at the moment, annual operating expenses of $14 billion (the Q1 outlook for operating expenses of $3.5 billion multiplied by four), and a tax rate of 17%, Nvidia could be pacing toward $50 billion in operating income or more. That would be a 50% increase over last year. Based on these back-of-the-envelope expectations, Nvidia stock is trading for about 35 to 40 times this year's earnings, far lower than the aforementioned 66 times trailing-12-month earnings ($2 trillion market cap divided by $50 billion in net income and/or free cash flow).How long can Nvidia keep growing?Of course, even this forward-looking earnings multiple hardly makes Nvidia stock cheap. Far from it, this valuation is in anticipation of Nvidia remaining in high-growth mode for quite some time. Wild estimates like seeing global AI infrastructure reach $400 billion in annual spending by 2027 -- an estimate Advanced Micro Devices has cited a few times now, which assumes a roughly doubling in global data center value from $1 trillion this past year to $2 trillion in three years -- has many investors are putting gobs of cash on the line with this as an assumption. But it's important to remember that Nvidia's business has always been cyclical -- periods of multi-year growth are followed by a year or two of contraction, before fresh highs are reached again. This isn't likely to change.Thus, investors should be on guard for a significant slowdown, or even a pullback, in AI infrastructure spending, perhaps late this year or in 2025. That could send Nvidia stock spiraling, much as past cyclical downturns have done.Data by YCharts.Does that mean Nvidia stock is to be avoided right now? I'm not ready to say that just yet. If the AI infrastructure market does keep growing through 2027, Nvidia stock may not be done just yet. But given the current valuation, investors looking to get in on the action should be cautious. Consider using a dollar-cost average plan to scale into a position over time, taking advantage of any inevitable dips along the way. In the meantime, there are a lot of other great semiconductor stocks out there right now as well.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"还以为我自己发的 [捂脸]","text":"还以为我自己发的 [捂脸]","html":"还以为我自己发的 [捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":277120451989752,"gmtCreate":1708685512325,"gmtModify":1708686824614,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"市盈率才60，而且每股收益还在不断提高。你说贵不贵？","listText":"市盈率才60，而且每股收益还在不断提高。你说贵不贵？","text":"市盈率才60，而且每股收益还在不断提高。你说贵不贵？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/277120451989752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297016361640232,"gmtCreate":1713542634376,"gmtModify":1713542637894,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 凉凉","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 凉凉","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 凉凉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297016361640232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":285061117718536,"gmtCreate":1710601318100,"gmtModify":1710601320364,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"黄仁勋进军AI应用端，后期不仅仅是一家卖铲子的巨头。","listText":"黄仁勋进军AI应用端，后期不仅仅是一家卖铲子的巨头。","text":"黄仁勋进军AI应用端，后期不仅仅是一家卖铲子的巨头。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285061117718536","repostId":"2419118309","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2419118309","pubTimestamp":1710592800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2419118309?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-16 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jensen Huang Just Said \"Humanoid Robotics Should Be Right Around the Corner.\" Here's How Nvidia Could Benefit.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2419118309","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Nvidia is exploring humanoid robotics, an under-the-radar application in artificial intelligence (AI).","content":"<html><body><ul>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Nvidia recently joined Microsoft, OpenAI, and Intel in a funding round for humanoid robotics start-up Figure AI.</div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Humanoid robotics represents an interesting part of the overall AI story, as the technology spans both hardware and software applications.</div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Nvidia could be a particularly disruptive force in the development of humanoid robotics, given its unique position as both a hardware and software AI player.</div>\n</li>\n</ul><div><p>When it comes to artificial intelligence (AI), applications in machine learning, large language models, and compute networking garner most of the attention. But what investors may not realize is that use cases packaged around AI are evolving in real time.</p><p>One area that is getting particular interest is robotics. Indeed, companies such as <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Alibaba</strong> have implemented robotics throughout their warehouses for years, creating efficiencies as it relates to packaging and logistics.</p><p>However, a rising number of the world's largest technology companies are increasingly focusing on the next frontier of robotics: humanoid bots. In late February, <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s <span>(NVDA<span> -0.12%</span>)</span> CEO, Jensen Huang, said \"humanoid robotics should be right around the corner\" during a panel discussion about AI.</p><p>Let's dig into the rise of humanoid robotics and analyze the moves Nvidia is making in the space.</p><div><app :collapse_on_load=\"false\" :instrument_id=\"204770\" :show_benchmark_compare=\"false\" amount_change=\"-1.07\" average_volume=\"50,639,303\" company_name=\"Nvidia\" current_price=\"878.37\" daily_high=\"895.46\" daily_low=\"862.57\" default_period=\"OneYear\" dividend_yield=\"0.02%\" exchange=\"NASDAQ\" fifty_two_week_high=\"974.00\" fifty_two_week_low=\"251.30\" gross_margin=\"72.72\" logo=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/art/companylogos/mark/NVDA.png\" market_cap=\"$2,196B\" pe_ratio=\"73.59\" percent_change=\"-0.12\" symbol=\"NVDA\" volume=\"64,208,616\"></app></div><h2>How does AI play a role in robotics?</h2><p>Robotics is an interesting part of the overall AI narrative because it is uniquely positioned at the intersection of software and hardware. And believe it or not, there are lots of companies working to develop humanoid bots.</p><div><div></div></div><p>Two of the more recognized brands in robotics include Boston Dynamics and <strong>Tesla</strong>. Over the last year, Tesla has teased investors with previews of its humanoid bot Optimus -- which is planned to be used across the company's factories and assembly lines in the future.</p><p>One lesser-known robotics start-up called 1X hails from Norway. The company has raised $125 million in venture capital (VC) funding over the last year from high-profile investors including OpenAI, <strong>Samsung</strong>, and Tiger Global.</p><div><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F769076%2Fgettyimages-966248982.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700\" srcset=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/769076/gettyimages-966248982.jpg&amp;w=300&amp;op=resize 300w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/769076/gettyimages-966248982.jpg&amp;w=1000&amp;op=resize 1000w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/769076/gettyimages-966248982.jpg&amp;w=2000&amp;op=resize 2000w\"/><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p></div><h2>What is Nvidia doing with robotics?</h2><p>About a week after Huang's comments regarding humanoid robots, Nvidia was cited as an investor in a $675 million funding round for start-up Figure AI. Nvidia joined <strong>Microsoft</strong>, OpenAI, <strong>Intel</strong>, and Amazon co-founder Jeff Bezos as investors.</p><p>Figure AI is developing humanoid robots that it plans to commercialize in industries such as manufacturing, warehousing, and retail. Figure AI's robots are being trained on generative AI models to learn how to perform basic tasks. The theme? The company is seeking to disrupt the workforce -- a market estimated to be worth $42 trillion annually.</p><div><div></div></div><h2>How could Nvidia benefit?</h2><p>Nvidia has incredibly lucrative opportunities in robotics. Currently, the company is primarily a hardware player -- developing high-performance semiconductors called graphics processing units (GPUs).</p><p>However, Nvidia is quietly expanding outside compute networking. Specifically, the company's enterprise software and services business is already operating at an annual revenue run rate of $1 billion. While this is impressive, it pales in comparison to Nvidia's data center business -- which generated $47 billion in sales last year.</p><p>Moreover, Nvidia is aggressively pursuing the enterprise software market through a combination of investments and strategic partnerships. The company is an investor in start-up Databricks, which largely competes with <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>. Additionally, Nvidia also partners with <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a></strong>, helping bring AI capabilities to the company's data cloud platform.</p><p>Given Nvidia's distinctive position as both a hardware and software developer, the company has a massive opportunity to play an integral role in the development of humanoid robotics. I see the investment in Figure AI as a first step that could lead to further strategic partnerships and revenue opportunities across both sides of its business.</p><div><div></div></div><p>The important idea here is that Nvidia is subtly building an end-to-end AI solution -- spanning across both software and hardware. As such, I think the company is setting itself up for long-term sustained growth in a variety of areas in the overall AI realm.</p><p>My guess is that Huang will continue to drop breadcrumbs, alluding to AI-powered applications that he believes Nvidia can play a role in. Despite the run-up in the stock, I think now is a terrific time to scoop up some shares and plan to hold long term.</p><div></div></div></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jensen Huang Just Said \"Humanoid Robotics Should Be Right Around the Corner.\" Here's How Nvidia Could Benefit.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJensen Huang Just Said \"Humanoid Robotics Should Be Right Around the Corner.\" Here's How Nvidia Could Benefit.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-16 20:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/16/jensen-huang-just-said-humanoid-robotics-should-be/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia recently joined Microsoft, OpenAI, and Intel in a funding round for humanoid robotics start-up Figure AI.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHumanoid robotics represents an interesting part of the overall AI story, as the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/16/jensen-huang-just-said-humanoid-robotics-should-be/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F769076%2Fgettyimages-966248982.jpg&op=resize&w=165&h=104","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","MSFT":"微软","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4538":"云计算","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","INTC":"英特尔","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4097":"系统软件","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0171293334.USD":"贝莱德英国基金A2","LU1815336091.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL SMALLER COMPANIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4124":"机动车零配件与设备","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","VC":"伟世通","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","GB00B4QBRK32.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) INC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU0757428866.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL SMALLER COMPANIES \"AE\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","GB00B4LPDJ14.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/16/jensen-huang-just-said-humanoid-robotics-should-be/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2419118309","content_text":"Nvidia recently joined Microsoft, OpenAI, and Intel in a funding round for humanoid robotics start-up Figure AI.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHumanoid robotics represents an interesting part of the overall AI story, as the technology spans both hardware and software applications.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNvidia could be a particularly disruptive force in the development of humanoid robotics, given its unique position as both a hardware and software AI player.\n\nWhen it comes to artificial intelligence (AI), applications in machine learning, large language models, and compute networking garner most of the attention. But what investors may not realize is that use cases packaged around AI are evolving in real time.One area that is getting particular interest is robotics. Indeed, companies such as Amazon and Alibaba have implemented robotics throughout their warehouses for years, creating efficiencies as it relates to packaging and logistics.However, a rising number of the world's largest technology companies are increasingly focusing on the next frontier of robotics: humanoid bots. In late February, Nvidia's (NVDA -0.12%) CEO, Jensen Huang, said \"humanoid robotics should be right around the corner\" during a panel discussion about AI.Let's dig into the rise of humanoid robotics and analyze the moves Nvidia is making in the space.How does AI play a role in robotics?Robotics is an interesting part of the overall AI narrative because it is uniquely positioned at the intersection of software and hardware. And believe it or not, there are lots of companies working to develop humanoid bots.Two of the more recognized brands in robotics include Boston Dynamics and Tesla. Over the last year, Tesla has teased investors with previews of its humanoid bot Optimus -- which is planned to be used across the company's factories and assembly lines in the future.One lesser-known robotics start-up called 1X hails from Norway. The company has raised $125 million in venture capital (VC) funding over the last year from high-profile investors including OpenAI, Samsung, and Tiger Global.Image source: Getty Images.What is Nvidia doing with robotics?About a week after Huang's comments regarding humanoid robots, Nvidia was cited as an investor in a $675 million funding round for start-up Figure AI. Nvidia joined Microsoft, OpenAI, Intel, and Amazon co-founder Jeff Bezos as investors.Figure AI is developing humanoid robots that it plans to commercialize in industries such as manufacturing, warehousing, and retail. Figure AI's robots are being trained on generative AI models to learn how to perform basic tasks. The theme? The company is seeking to disrupt the workforce -- a market estimated to be worth $42 trillion annually.How could Nvidia benefit?Nvidia has incredibly lucrative opportunities in robotics. Currently, the company is primarily a hardware player -- developing high-performance semiconductors called graphics processing units (GPUs).However, Nvidia is quietly expanding outside compute networking. Specifically, the company's enterprise software and services business is already operating at an annual revenue run rate of $1 billion. While this is impressive, it pales in comparison to Nvidia's data center business -- which generated $47 billion in sales last year.Moreover, Nvidia is aggressively pursuing the enterprise software market through a combination of investments and strategic partnerships. The company is an investor in start-up Databricks, which largely competes with Palantir Technologies. Additionally, Nvidia also partners with Snowflake, helping bring AI capabilities to the company's data cloud platform.Given Nvidia's distinctive position as both a hardware and software developer, the company has a massive opportunity to play an integral role in the development of humanoid robotics. I see the investment in Figure AI as a first step that could lead to further strategic partnerships and revenue opportunities across both sides of its business.The important idea here is that Nvidia is subtly building an end-to-end AI solution -- spanning across both software and hardware. As such, I think the company is setting itself up for long-term sustained growth in a variety of areas in the overall AI realm.My guess is that Huang will continue to drop breadcrumbs, alluding to AI-powered applications that he believes Nvidia can play a role in. Despite the run-up in the stock, I think now is a terrific time to scoop up some shares and plan to hold long term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669969200,"gmtCreate":1662038569800,"gmtModify":1662038570914,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"原来是这样，通过率这么高","listText":"原来是这样，通过率这么高","text":"原来是这样，通过率这么高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669969200","repostId":"1122599582","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122599582","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1662037609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122599582?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-01 21:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎点评：美国要断供高端GPU？别再被标题党骗了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122599582","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"英伟达的申请被通过的比例可能是97.8%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>看自媒体的标题总会莫名其妙恐慌，从英伟达芯片禁止出口中国（游戏迷倒吸一口冷气）到两家芯片厂商宣布断供高端GPU，再配合“突发”两个字的点缀，总会让人觉得世界大战即将来袭。我个人觉得这个问题也不能全怪自媒体，一来是所有自媒体都喜欢这么搞，你不搞就没有流量；二来是人的情绪会被引导，即使我心理建设知道“突发”类新闻都是噱头，但是看见这两个字我还是要点开，因为害怕不点开就会错过重要的事情——但为什么美国的新闻不会出现这样的描述呢？</p><p>现在回到这个事情本身。根据英伟达向SEC提交的文件，英伟达的A100和H100（H100是A100的升级版）芯片向中国出口的时候，需要向美国政府申请许可证。英伟达会向美国政府申请许可，但是不保证会得到批准。所以并非美国政府直接禁止英伟达出口高端芯片，更不是美国政府禁止中国人民买3080/3090显卡玩游戏，而是从今往后，英伟达的两款非游戏用的高端芯片出口的时候，需要向商务部申请许可证。</p><p>所以下一个问题就是，美国商务部对于申请出口许可证是什么态度？</p><p>美国国会在2018年制定/修订了法律，会管控向中国出口的军民两用产品，具体执行这个法律的是美国商务部。在美国向中国出口的货物中，81.6%不需要管控，剩下的18.1%需要管控。而在需要管控的出口产品种，绝大多数（17.4%）的产品不需要许可证，0.4%的产品可以申请豁免，只有0.4%的产品需要许可证，可以说是非常小的范围需要申请许可证。目前英伟达的两款芯片，就落入到这0.4%的范围内。具体的比例分配如下图，来自于美国国会研究（Congressional Research Service）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bab0d1ce17f584ba7f4862c0695185\" tg-width=\"454\" tg-height=\"220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>根据商务部的数据，2020年商务部一共接受了$1,120亿出口中国的申请（大部分产品不需要申请），但是只否定了$4.7亿产品出口，占比2.2%（这个比例表面上看起来不太对，是因为有一部分申请被退回不会计入否决比例，商家可以重新申请）。所以按照统计数字来看，英伟达的申请被通过的比例可能是97.8%。</p><p>为什么英伟达的两款芯片原来出口中国都没问题，商务部突然就要求其申请许可证了呢？原因可能是右派媒体华尔街日报8月初的一篇报道，题目是“U.S. Approves Nearly All Tech Exports to China, Data Shows”（美国几乎批准了所有出口到中国的科技产品）</p><p>在这篇报道中，华尔街日报称2020年出口到中国的科技产品许可证批准率是94%，2021年是88%（需要记住，需要向商务部申请许可证的比例非常小），报道对拜登政府大量批准非常不满，为了激情民愤，报道还故意开通了读者评论，美国民粹精神在评论上展现得淋漓尽致。</p><p>英伟达在这件事有一个很大的失误，就是它不应该向SEC披露这个消息（披露的原因是它们认为可能会对收入产生影响。英伟达一年收入$270亿，这两款芯片在中国的销售是$4亿，占比仅仅1.4%，真的有披露的义务吗？还是被公司律师坑了？）。这个消息一披露，那么事情无疑又变成两国焦点，本来正常申请许可证有98%的批准率，但现在美国商务部骑虎难下了，哪里敢批准英伟达的申请。</p><p>AMD就很老练，到现在也没说话，只是英伟达披露之后，AMD可能也被迫披露。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎点评：美国要断供高端GPU？别再被标题党骗了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎点评：美国要断供高端GPU？别再被标题党骗了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-01 21:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>看自媒体的标题总会莫名其妙恐慌，从英伟达芯片禁止出口中国（游戏迷倒吸一口冷气）到两家芯片厂商宣布断供高端GPU，再配合“突发”两个字的点缀，总会让人觉得世界大战即将来袭。我个人觉得这个问题也不能全怪自媒体，一来是所有自媒体都喜欢这么搞，你不搞就没有流量；二来是人的情绪会被引导，即使我心理建设知道“突发”类新闻都是噱头，但是看见这两个字我还是要点开，因为害怕不点开就会错过重要的事情——但为什么美国的新闻不会出现这样的描述呢？</p><p>现在回到这个事情本身。根据英伟达向SEC提交的文件，英伟达的A100和H100（H100是A100的升级版）芯片向中国出口的时候，需要向美国政府申请许可证。英伟达会向美国政府申请许可，但是不保证会得到批准。所以并非美国政府直接禁止英伟达出口高端芯片，更不是美国政府禁止中国人民买3080/3090显卡玩游戏，而是从今往后，英伟达的两款非游戏用的高端芯片出口的时候，需要向商务部申请许可证。</p><p>所以下一个问题就是，美国商务部对于申请出口许可证是什么态度？</p><p>美国国会在2018年制定/修订了法律，会管控向中国出口的军民两用产品，具体执行这个法律的是美国商务部。在美国向中国出口的货物中，81.6%不需要管控，剩下的18.1%需要管控。而在需要管控的出口产品种，绝大多数（17.4%）的产品不需要许可证，0.4%的产品可以申请豁免，只有0.4%的产品需要许可证，可以说是非常小的范围需要申请许可证。目前英伟达的两款芯片，就落入到这0.4%的范围内。具体的比例分配如下图，来自于美国国会研究（Congressional Research Service）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bab0d1ce17f584ba7f4862c0695185\" tg-width=\"454\" tg-height=\"220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>根据商务部的数据，2020年商务部一共接受了$1,120亿出口中国的申请（大部分产品不需要申请），但是只否定了$4.7亿产品出口，占比2.2%（这个比例表面上看起来不太对，是因为有一部分申请被退回不会计入否决比例，商家可以重新申请）。所以按照统计数字来看，英伟达的申请被通过的比例可能是97.8%。</p><p>为什么英伟达的两款芯片原来出口中国都没问题，商务部突然就要求其申请许可证了呢？原因可能是右派媒体华尔街日报8月初的一篇报道，题目是“U.S. Approves Nearly All Tech Exports to China, Data Shows”（美国几乎批准了所有出口到中国的科技产品）</p><p>在这篇报道中，华尔街日报称2020年出口到中国的科技产品许可证批准率是94%，2021年是88%（需要记住，需要向商务部申请许可证的比例非常小），报道对拜登政府大量批准非常不满，为了激情民愤，报道还故意开通了读者评论，美国民粹精神在评论上展现得淋漓尽致。</p><p>英伟达在这件事有一个很大的失误，就是它不应该向SEC披露这个消息（披露的原因是它们认为可能会对收入产生影响。英伟达一年收入$270亿，这两款芯片在中国的销售是$4亿，占比仅仅1.4%，真的有披露的义务吗？还是被公司律师坑了？）。这个消息一披露，那么事情无疑又变成两国焦点，本来正常申请许可证有98%的批准率，但现在美国商务部骑虎难下了，哪里敢批准英伟达的申请。</p><p>AMD就很老练，到现在也没说话，只是英伟达披露之后，AMD可能也被迫披露。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122599582","content_text":"看自媒体的标题总会莫名其妙恐慌，从英伟达芯片禁止出口中国（游戏迷倒吸一口冷气）到两家芯片厂商宣布断供高端GPU，再配合“突发”两个字的点缀，总会让人觉得世界大战即将来袭。我个人觉得这个问题也不能全怪自媒体，一来是所有自媒体都喜欢这么搞，你不搞就没有流量；二来是人的情绪会被引导，即使我心理建设知道“突发”类新闻都是噱头，但是看见这两个字我还是要点开，因为害怕不点开就会错过重要的事情——但为什么美国的新闻不会出现这样的描述呢？现在回到这个事情本身。根据英伟达向SEC提交的文件，英伟达的A100和H100（H100是A100的升级版）芯片向中国出口的时候，需要向美国政府申请许可证。英伟达会向美国政府申请许可，但是不保证会得到批准。所以并非美国政府直接禁止英伟达出口高端芯片，更不是美国政府禁止中国人民买3080/3090显卡玩游戏，而是从今往后，英伟达的两款非游戏用的高端芯片出口的时候，需要向商务部申请许可证。所以下一个问题就是，美国商务部对于申请出口许可证是什么态度？美国国会在2018年制定/修订了法律，会管控向中国出口的军民两用产品，具体执行这个法律的是美国商务部。在美国向中国出口的货物中，81.6%不需要管控，剩下的18.1%需要管控。而在需要管控的出口产品种，绝大多数（17.4%）的产品不需要许可证，0.4%的产品可以申请豁免，只有0.4%的产品需要许可证，可以说是非常小的范围需要申请许可证。目前英伟达的两款芯片，就落入到这0.4%的范围内。具体的比例分配如下图，来自于美国国会研究（Congressional Research Service）。根据商务部的数据，2020年商务部一共接受了$1,120亿出口中国的申请（大部分产品不需要申请），但是只否定了$4.7亿产品出口，占比2.2%（这个比例表面上看起来不太对，是因为有一部分申请被退回不会计入否决比例，商家可以重新申请）。所以按照统计数字来看，英伟达的申请被通过的比例可能是97.8%。为什么英伟达的两款芯片原来出口中国都没问题，商务部突然就要求其申请许可证了呢？原因可能是右派媒体华尔街日报8月初的一篇报道，题目是“U.S. Approves Nearly All Tech Exports to China, Data Shows”（美国几乎批准了所有出口到中国的科技产品）在这篇报道中，华尔街日报称2020年出口到中国的科技产品许可证批准率是94%，2021年是88%（需要记住，需要向商务部申请许可证的比例非常小），报道对拜登政府大量批准非常不满，为了激情民愤，报道还故意开通了读者评论，美国民粹精神在评论上展现得淋漓尽致。英伟达在这件事有一个很大的失误，就是它不应该向SEC披露这个消息（披露的原因是它们认为可能会对收入产生影响。英伟达一年收入$270亿，这两款芯片在中国的销售是$4亿，占比仅仅1.4%，真的有披露的义务吗？还是被公司律师坑了？）。这个消息一披露，那么事情无疑又变成两国焦点，本来正常申请许可证有98%的批准率，但现在美国商务部骑虎难下了，哪里敢批准英伟达的申请。AMD就很老练，到现在也没说话，只是英伟达披露之后，AMD可能也被迫披露。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296656929841288,"gmtCreate":1713463756725,"gmtModify":1713463758635,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我预测能上2200","listText":"我预测能上2200","text":"我预测能上2200","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296656929841288","repostId":"2428302302","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2428302302","pubTimestamp":1713404150,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2428302302?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-18 09:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"机构预测：牛市情景下，英伟达股价明年有望升破1500美元！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428302302","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"$Evercore$ ISI本周发布报告称，尽管$英伟达$股价过去一年里飙升了200%以上，但该股仍有很大的上涨潜力。该公司认为，在牛市情景下，英伟达的股价明年可能会飙升至1540美元，较当前水平上涨81%。利帕西斯预计，到2030年，英伟达将占据并行处理市场80%的份额，后者的价值可能超过3500亿美元。在这种情况下，到本十年末，英伟达的每股盈利能力将达到69美元，而该公司去年的每股盈利为11.93美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI本周发布报告称，尽管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>股价过去一年里飙升了200%以上，但该股仍有很大的上涨潜力。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a>将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的评级定为“跑赢大盘”，目标价为1160美元，较当前水平有36%的潜在上涨空间。该公司认为，在牛市情景下，英伟达的股价明年可能会飙升至1540美元，较当前水平上涨81%。</p><p>Evercore表示，之所以设定如此高的目标价，是因为英伟达不仅仅是一家芯片公司，尽管大多数投资者仍然只是这样认为。</p><p>Evercore分析师马克·利帕西斯（Mark Lipacis）表示：“我们认为投资者低估了：1）英伟达创建的芯片+硬件+软件生态系统的重要性；2）计算时代持续15-20年，通常由一家垂直整合的生态系统公司主导，其回报率在100- 1000倍之间。”</p><p>利帕西斯看涨的关键论点是，英伟达是一个人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>生态系统的参与者，它是一个新的计算平台的明显领导者，将在未来几年推动效率的提高。</p><p>利帕西斯表示：“这种‘生态系统玩家’通常占据了各自计算时代创造的价值的80%，而其他公司则争夺另外20%。”</p><p>利帕西斯预计，到2030年，英伟达将占据并行处理市场80%的份额，后者的价值可能超过3500亿美元。在这种情况下，到本十年末，英伟达的每股盈利能力将达到69美元，而该公司去年的每股盈利为11.93美元。</p><p>利帕西斯表示：“我们认为，当前并行处理/物联网计算时代的结构性转变始于5至8年前，英伟达是并行处理领域的主导生态系统，而这只是为投资者带来巨大回报的开始阶段。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>机构预测：牛市情景下，英伟达股价明年有望升破1500美元！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n机构预测：牛市情景下，英伟达股价明年有望升破1500美元！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-18 09:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-18/doc-inasfexe7826143.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Evercore ISI本周发布报告称，尽管英伟达股价过去一年里飙升了200%以上，但该股仍有很大的上涨潜力。Evercore将英伟达的评级定为“跑赢大盘”，目标价为1160美元，较当前水平有36%的潜在上涨空间。该公司认为，在牛市情景下，英伟达的股价明年可能会飙升至1540美元，较当前水平上涨81%。Evercore表示，之所以设定如此高的目标价，是因为英伟达不仅仅是一家芯片公司，尽管大多数...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-18/doc-inasfexe7826143.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e69b1aea7f8e673c51aca46530f32d","relate_stocks":{"IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4588":"碎股","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-18/doc-inasfexe7826143.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2428302302","content_text":"Evercore ISI本周发布报告称，尽管英伟达股价过去一年里飙升了200%以上，但该股仍有很大的上涨潜力。Evercore将英伟达的评级定为“跑赢大盘”，目标价为1160美元，较当前水平有36%的潜在上涨空间。该公司认为，在牛市情景下，英伟达的股价明年可能会飙升至1540美元，较当前水平上涨81%。Evercore表示，之所以设定如此高的目标价，是因为英伟达不仅仅是一家芯片公司，尽管大多数投资者仍然只是这样认为。Evercore分析师马克·利帕西斯（Mark Lipacis）表示：“我们认为投资者低估了：1）英伟达创建的芯片+硬件+软件生态系统的重要性；2）计算时代持续15-20年，通常由一家垂直整合的生态系统公司主导，其回报率在100- 1000倍之间。”利帕西斯看涨的关键论点是，英伟达是一个人工智能生态系统的参与者，它是一个新的计算平台的明显领导者，将在未来几年推动效率的提高。利帕西斯表示：“这种‘生态系统玩家’通常占据了各自计算时代创造的价值的80%，而其他公司则争夺另外20%。”利帕西斯预计，到2030年，英伟达将占据并行处理市场80%的份额，后者的价值可能超过3500亿美元。在这种情况下，到本十年末，英伟达的每股盈利能力将达到69美元，而该公司去年的每股盈利为11.93美元。利帕西斯表示：“我们认为，当前并行处理/物联网计算时代的结构性转变始于5至8年前，英伟达是并行处理领域的主导生态系统，而这只是为投资者带来巨大回报的开始阶段。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877292805,"gmtCreate":1637933110150,"gmtModify":1637933110150,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看来看去没啥用，坚定拿就行","listText":"看来看去没啥用，坚定拿就行","text":"看来看去没啥用，坚定拿就行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877292805","repostId":"1127535445","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127535445","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637930387,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127535445?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 20:39","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"盘前：恐慌情绪席卷市场！机构分析师们怎么看？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127535445","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月26日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌2.21%；标普500指数期货跌1.65%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.89%；\n\nVIX恐慌指数涨幅扩大至近40%，报25.79\n\n本周五","content":"<p>11月26日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌2.21%；标普500指数期货跌1.65%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.89%；</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ea9b7b891d59256e95136940f836bc8\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>VIX恐慌指数涨幅扩大至近40%，报25.79</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdda64d7dfc6a56d1938961bc566e0c1\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>本周五，南非新发现的一种新冠病毒变种引发全球恐慌，投资者们纷纷涌向避险资产。</p>\n<p>目前在南非、博兹瓦纳和中国香港已经发现该种变种病毒的确诊病例。英国卫生安全局将其描述为“迄今为止最糟糕的一种”，与其他变异株相比，这种变种病毒刺突蛋白变化更多，突变数量是目前占主导地位的Delta毒株的两倍。目前人们对这种变异病毒知之甚少，不过科学家们说，这种病毒有一种不同寻常的突变组合，可能能够逃避疫苗的免疫反应，或更具传染性。</p>\n<p><b>以下是部分投资机构对于这种新冠变种病毒的看法：</b></p>\n<p>日本金融服务公司Monex首席战略师TAKASHI HIROKI：“这种变体对于市场来说是一种新的风险。我们不知道它躲过免疫的效果有多强。”</p>\n<p>澳大利亚国民银行外汇策略主管RAY ATTRILL：“人们对这（病毒变种）意味着什么尚不确定。不过当这种新闻爆发时，市场总习惯先开枪，然后再问问题。”</p>\n<p>新加坡银行外汇分析师Moh siong sim：“我们仍然不知道这种病毒的传染性有多大……这是一种普遍的不确定性。如果疫苗无效，市场将面临另一波全球感染的风险。重新开放的希望可能会破灭。”</p>\n<p>HYPERION资产管理公司首席信息官MARK ARNOLD：“我认为世界不会再回到疫情前的状态了。随着时间的推移，我们终究会感染变异病毒，而这会改变经济运作的方式。这就是现实。”</p>\n<p>巴克莱高级外汇策略师SHINICHIRO KADOTA：“我们看到德国正在考虑封锁，所以这种新变种病毒和新冠疫情的爆发对市场情绪总体上构成了一些风险。如果新冠疫情形势恶化，美元对日元的汇率可能进一步下跌，但同时，央行货币政策的分歧在中期内肯定会对日元造成压力。”</p>\n<p>澳州联邦银行固收部门主管MARTIN WHETTON：“要密切关注新的病毒变种。尽管我们都不是病毒学家，但我们都看到了这对央行政策和市场预期路径的影响。”</p>\n<p>OANDA分析师JEFFREY HALLEY：“英国已经暂停了来自南非和其他五个邻国的航班，我们可以预期在其他地方出现更多这样的情况。此前，世界在面对Delta变种病毒时的自满表现带来了惨痛的教训。”</p>\n<p><b>盘前行情</b></p>\n<p>美股区块链概念股盘前走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings</a>跌超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">SOS Limited</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>跌超4%；</p>\n<p>美股油气板块盘前下挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVE\">Cenovus能源</a>盘前跌8.88%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">英国石油</a>盘前跌6.5%，荷兰皇家壳牌盘前跌5.86%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">道达尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>石油盘前跌5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>盘前跌4.43%；</p>\n<p>美股抗疫概念股盘前走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AHPI\">联合保健产品</a>盘前涨超18%，Moderna盘前涨超10%，Ocugen盘前涨7.89%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>盘前涨6.9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">诺瓦瓦克斯医药</a>盘前涨5.94%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>盘前涨超5%；</p>\n<p>美股大型科技股盘前普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>跌近3.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>跌2.74%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>跌1.9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>跌1.4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌1.04%；</p>\n<p>美股邮轮、航空股盘前集体重挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>跌超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>跌超7%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">联合大陆航空</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>跌超5%；</p>\n<p>中概股盘前多数下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>跌超6%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a>跌6.73%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>跌6.36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌5.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌近4.7%；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">法拉第未来</a>盘前超6%，公司收到美国退市警告，要求60天内提交合规计划；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>盘前涨近8%，ARK基金持续买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video的股票；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">雾芯科技</a>盘前跌超12%，国务院发布关于修改《中华人民共和国烟草专卖法实施条例》的决定，电子烟等新型烟草制品参照卷烟有关规定执行；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>盘前跌超18%，第三季度营收大幅不及市场预期。</p>\n<p><b>欧洲市场</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌2.78%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌2.66%、法国CAC40跌3.51%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382961580932d74b49a927a30d0e0427\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货加速重挫，截止发稿，WTI原油跌5.78%，报73.86美元/桶；布伦特原油跌5.48%，报77.74美元/桶。</p>\n<p>新发现的新冠病毒变体令投资者不安，而美国和其他国家释放原油储备后全球供应过剩可能在第一季度加剧。OPEC消息人士称，预计12月将出现40万桶/日的过剩规模，如果消费国继续释储，1月将扩大到过剩230万桶/日，2月达到370万桶/日。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/357c51bc559f9c2d7e024abe2ff4fda6\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8d62fd35ba99eb9a1d48838f719bc5\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货反弹，截止发稿，涨1.35%，报1808.3美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>因为对一种新发现的新冠病毒变体扩散的担忧提振了黄金的避险吸引力。不过由于对美联储可能转向更加鹰派的押注不断增加，金价将录得周线跌幅。加上与疫情相关的增长担忧应会削弱高风险货币，并最终支持美元，从而打击金价。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/394dafd07df27e392ef5795a32411594\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"824\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前：恐慌情绪席卷市场！机构分析师们怎么看？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前：恐慌情绪席卷市场！机构分析师们怎么看？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-26 20:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>11月26日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌2.21%；标普500指数期货跌1.65%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.89%；</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ea9b7b891d59256e95136940f836bc8\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>VIX恐慌指数涨幅扩大至近40%，报25.79</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdda64d7dfc6a56d1938961bc566e0c1\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>本周五，南非新发现的一种新冠病毒变种引发全球恐慌，投资者们纷纷涌向避险资产。</p>\n<p>目前在南非、博兹瓦纳和中国香港已经发现该种变种病毒的确诊病例。英国卫生安全局将其描述为“迄今为止最糟糕的一种”，与其他变异株相比，这种变种病毒刺突蛋白变化更多，突变数量是目前占主导地位的Delta毒株的两倍。目前人们对这种变异病毒知之甚少，不过科学家们说，这种病毒有一种不同寻常的突变组合，可能能够逃避疫苗的免疫反应，或更具传染性。</p>\n<p><b>以下是部分投资机构对于这种新冠变种病毒的看法：</b></p>\n<p>日本金融服务公司Monex首席战略师TAKASHI HIROKI：“这种变体对于市场来说是一种新的风险。我们不知道它躲过免疫的效果有多强。”</p>\n<p>澳大利亚国民银行外汇策略主管RAY ATTRILL：“人们对这（病毒变种）意味着什么尚不确定。不过当这种新闻爆发时，市场总习惯先开枪，然后再问问题。”</p>\n<p>新加坡银行外汇分析师Moh siong sim：“我们仍然不知道这种病毒的传染性有多大……这是一种普遍的不确定性。如果疫苗无效，市场将面临另一波全球感染的风险。重新开放的希望可能会破灭。”</p>\n<p>HYPERION资产管理公司首席信息官MARK ARNOLD：“我认为世界不会再回到疫情前的状态了。随着时间的推移，我们终究会感染变异病毒，而这会改变经济运作的方式。这就是现实。”</p>\n<p>巴克莱高级外汇策略师SHINICHIRO KADOTA：“我们看到德国正在考虑封锁，所以这种新变种病毒和新冠疫情的爆发对市场情绪总体上构成了一些风险。如果新冠疫情形势恶化，美元对日元的汇率可能进一步下跌，但同时，央行货币政策的分歧在中期内肯定会对日元造成压力。”</p>\n<p>澳州联邦银行固收部门主管MARTIN WHETTON：“要密切关注新的病毒变种。尽管我们都不是病毒学家，但我们都看到了这对央行政策和市场预期路径的影响。”</p>\n<p>OANDA分析师JEFFREY HALLEY：“英国已经暂停了来自南非和其他五个邻国的航班，我们可以预期在其他地方出现更多这样的情况。此前，世界在面对Delta变种病毒时的自满表现带来了惨痛的教训。”</p>\n<p><b>盘前行情</b></p>\n<p>美股区块链概念股盘前走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings</a>跌超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">SOS Limited</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>跌超4%；</p>\n<p>美股油气板块盘前下挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVE\">Cenovus能源</a>盘前跌8.88%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">英国石油</a>盘前跌6.5%，荷兰皇家壳牌盘前跌5.86%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">道达尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>石油盘前跌5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>盘前跌4.43%；</p>\n<p>美股抗疫概念股盘前走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AHPI\">联合保健产品</a>盘前涨超18%，Moderna盘前涨超10%，Ocugen盘前涨7.89%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>盘前涨6.9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">诺瓦瓦克斯医药</a>盘前涨5.94%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>盘前涨超5%；</p>\n<p>美股大型科技股盘前普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>跌近3.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>跌2.74%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>跌1.9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>跌1.4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌1.04%；</p>\n<p>美股邮轮、航空股盘前集体重挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>跌超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>跌超7%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">联合大陆航空</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>跌超5%；</p>\n<p>中概股盘前多数下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>跌超6%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a>跌6.73%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>跌6.36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌5.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌近4.7%；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">法拉第未来</a>盘前超6%，公司收到美国退市警告，要求60天内提交合规计划；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>盘前涨近8%，ARK基金持续买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video的股票；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">雾芯科技</a>盘前跌超12%，国务院发布关于修改《中华人民共和国烟草专卖法实施条例》的决定，电子烟等新型烟草制品参照卷烟有关规定执行；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>盘前跌超18%，第三季度营收大幅不及市场预期。</p>\n<p><b>欧洲市场</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌2.78%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌2.66%、法国CAC40跌3.51%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382961580932d74b49a927a30d0e0427\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货加速重挫，截止发稿，WTI原油跌5.78%，报73.86美元/桶；布伦特原油跌5.48%，报77.74美元/桶。</p>\n<p>新发现的新冠病毒变体令投资者不安，而美国和其他国家释放原油储备后全球供应过剩可能在第一季度加剧。OPEC消息人士称，预计12月将出现40万桶/日的过剩规模，如果消费国继续释储，1月将扩大到过剩230万桶/日，2月达到370万桶/日。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/357c51bc559f9c2d7e024abe2ff4fda6\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8d62fd35ba99eb9a1d48838f719bc5\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货反弹，截止发稿，涨1.35%，报1808.3美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>因为对一种新发现的新冠病毒变体扩散的担忧提振了黄金的避险吸引力。不过由于对美联储可能转向更加鹰派的押注不断增加，金价将录得周线跌幅。加上与疫情相关的增长担忧应会削弱高风险货币，并最终支持美元，从而打击金价。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/394dafd07df27e392ef5795a32411594\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"824\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"RLX":"雾芯科技"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127535445","content_text":"11月26日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌2.21%；标普500指数期货跌1.65%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.89%；\n\nVIX恐慌指数涨幅扩大至近40%，报25.79\n\n本周五，南非新发现的一种新冠病毒变种引发全球恐慌，投资者们纷纷涌向避险资产。\n目前在南非、博兹瓦纳和中国香港已经发现该种变种病毒的确诊病例。英国卫生安全局将其描述为“迄今为止最糟糕的一种”，与其他变异株相比，这种变种病毒刺突蛋白变化更多，突变数量是目前占主导地位的Delta毒株的两倍。目前人们对这种变异病毒知之甚少，不过科学家们说，这种病毒有一种不同寻常的突变组合，可能能够逃避疫苗的免疫反应，或更具传染性。\n以下是部分投资机构对于这种新冠变种病毒的看法：\n日本金融服务公司Monex首席战略师TAKASHI HIROKI：“这种变体对于市场来说是一种新的风险。我们不知道它躲过免疫的效果有多强。”\n澳大利亚国民银行外汇策略主管RAY ATTRILL：“人们对这（病毒变种）意味着什么尚不确定。不过当这种新闻爆发时，市场总习惯先开枪，然后再问问题。”\n新加坡银行外汇分析师Moh siong sim：“我们仍然不知道这种病毒的传染性有多大……这是一种普遍的不确定性。如果疫苗无效，市场将面临另一波全球感染的风险。重新开放的希望可能会破灭。”\nHYPERION资产管理公司首席信息官MARK ARNOLD：“我认为世界不会再回到疫情前的状态了。随着时间的推移，我们终究会感染变异病毒，而这会改变经济运作的方式。这就是现实。”\n巴克莱高级外汇策略师SHINICHIRO KADOTA：“我们看到德国正在考虑封锁，所以这种新变种病毒和新冠疫情的爆发对市场情绪总体上构成了一些风险。如果新冠疫情形势恶化，美元对日元的汇率可能进一步下跌，但同时，央行货币政策的分歧在中期内肯定会对日元造成压力。”\n澳州联邦银行固收部门主管MARTIN WHETTON：“要密切关注新的病毒变种。尽管我们都不是病毒学家，但我们都看到了这对央行政策和市场预期路径的影响。”\nOANDA分析师JEFFREY HALLEY：“英国已经暂停了来自南非和其他五个邻国的航班，我们可以预期在其他地方出现更多这样的情况。此前，世界在面对Delta变种病毒时的自满表现带来了惨痛的教训。”\n盘前行情\n美股区块链概念股盘前走低，Marathon Digital Holdings跌超8%，Bit Digital Inc、Riot Blockchain、嘉楠科技跌超7%，SOS Limited跌超6%，Coinbase跌超4%；\n美股油气板块盘前下挫，Cenovus能源盘前跌8.88%，英国石油盘前跌6.5%，荷兰皇家壳牌盘前跌5.86%，道达尔、埃克森美孚石油盘前跌5%，雪佛龙盘前跌4.43%；\n美股抗疫概念股盘前走高，联合保健产品盘前涨超18%，Moderna盘前涨超10%，Ocugen盘前涨7.89%，BioNTech SE盘前涨6.9%，诺瓦瓦克斯医药盘前涨5.94%，辉瑞盘前涨超5%；\n美股大型科技股盘前普跌，台积电、英伟达跌近3.5%，特斯拉跌超3%，美光科技跌2.74%，高通、Meta Platforms跌超2%，苹果、英特尔跌1.9%，思科跌1.4%，微软跌1.04%；\n美股邮轮、航空股盘前集体重挫，嘉年华邮轮跌超10%，挪威邮轮跌超7%；达美航空、联合大陆航空跌超7%，美国航空跌超5%；\n中概股盘前多数下跌，滴滴跌超6%；金山云跌6.73%，好未来跌6.36%，爱奇艺跌5.6%，小鹏汽车、蔚来、贝壳跌超5%，阿里巴巴跌超4%，理想汽车跌近4.7%；\n法拉第未来盘前超6%，公司收到美国退市警告，要求60天内提交合规计划；\nZoom盘前涨近8%，ARK基金持续买入Zoom Video的股票；\n雾芯科技盘前跌超12%，国务院发布关于修改《中华人民共和国烟草专卖法实施条例》的决定，电子烟等新型烟草制品参照卷烟有关规定执行；\n拼多多盘前跌超18%，第三季度营收大幅不及市场预期。\n欧洲市场\n欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌2.78%，英国富时100跌2.66%、法国CAC40跌3.51%。\n\n原油\n原油期货加速重挫，截止发稿，WTI原油跌5.78%，报73.86美元/桶；布伦特原油跌5.48%，报77.74美元/桶。\n新发现的新冠病毒变体令投资者不安，而美国和其他国家释放原油储备后全球供应过剩可能在第一季度加剧。OPEC消息人士称，预计12月将出现40万桶/日的过剩规模，如果消费国继续释储，1月将扩大到过剩230万桶/日，2月达到370万桶/日。\n\n黄金\n黄金期货反弹，截止发稿，涨1.35%，报1808.3美元/盎司。\n因为对一种新发现的新冠病毒变体扩散的担忧提振了黄金的避险吸引力。不过由于对美联储可能转向更加鹰派的押注不断增加，金价将录得周线跌幅。加上与疫情相关的增长担忧应会削弱高风险货币，并最终支持美元，从而打击金价。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301686235521288,"gmtCreate":1714659953540,"gmtModify":1714659955326,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301686235521288","repostId":"2432010196","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2432010196","pubTimestamp":1714657740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2432010196?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-02 21:49","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"英伟达供应商SK海力士表示2025年的高带宽内存芯片几乎售罄","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2432010196","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"北京时间2日晚，英伟达供应商SK海力士（SK Hynix）周四表示，其高带宽内存（HBM）芯片在2025年几乎已经售罄，因为人工智能的繁荣推动了对这些芯片的需求。\n\n　　这家韩国存储芯片制造商表示，其HBM芯片在2024年已完全售罄。\n　　该公司表示，将从今年第三季度开始量产最新一代的HBM芯片，即12层HBM3E。\n　　SK海力士股价周四下跌0.4%。\n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你>>\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：张俊 SF065","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>　　北京时间2日晚，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>供应商SK海力士（SK Hynix）周四表示，其高带宽内存（HBM）芯片在2025年几乎已经售罄，因为人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>的繁荣推动了对这些芯片的需求。</p>\n<div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/transform/60/w550h310/20240502/fb23-08eeaf35564a5e4a3d3178d2faaafb72.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　这家韩国存储芯片制造商表示，其HBM芯片在2024年已完全售罄。</p>\n<p>　　该公司表示，将从今年第三季度开始量产最新一代的HBM芯片，即12层HBM3E。</p>\n<p>　　SK海力士股价周四下跌0.4%。</p>\n<div>\n<span>股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你&gt;&gt;</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：张俊 SF065</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达供应商SK海力士表示2025年的高带宽内存芯片几乎售罄</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达供应商SK海力士表示2025年的高带宽内存芯片几乎售罄\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-02 21:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-05-02/doc-inatwaav7243646.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京时间2日晚，英伟达供应商SK海力士（SK Hynix）周四表示，其高带宽内存（HBM）芯片在2025年几乎已经售罄，因为人工智能的繁荣推动了对这些芯片的需求。\n\n　　这家韩国存储芯片制造商表示，其HBM芯片在2024年已完全售罄。\n　　该公司表示，将从今年第三季度开始量产最新一代的HBM芯片，即12层HBM3E。\n　　SK海力士股价周四下跌0.4%。\n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-05-02/doc-inatwaav7243646.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0494093205.USD":"贝莱德ESG灵活多元资产A2 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ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4529":"IDC概念","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-05-02/doc-inatwaav7243646.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2432010196","content_text":"北京时间2日晚，英伟达供应商SK海力士（SK Hynix）周四表示，其高带宽内存（HBM）芯片在2025年几乎已经售罄，因为人工智能的繁荣推动了对这些芯片的需求。\n\n　　这家韩国存储芯片制造商表示，其HBM芯片在2024年已完全售罄。\n　　该公司表示，将从今年第三季度开始量产最新一代的HBM芯片，即12层HBM3E。\n　　SK海力士股价周四下跌0.4%。\n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你>>\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：张俊 SF065","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300869559676992,"gmtCreate":1714460563755,"gmtModify":1714460568307,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"嗷。小老虎，嘿嘿","listText":"嗷。小老虎，嘿嘿","text":"嗷。小老虎，嘿嘿","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a4556a90b9a583ee3e6857f4211ebf6"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300869559676992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300846139490616,"gmtCreate":1714454986411,"gmtModify":1714454988332,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"700 800的股价对于英伟达来说简直是太便宜了。","listText":"700 800的股价对于英伟达来说简直是太便宜了。","text":"700 800的股价对于英伟达来说简直是太便宜了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300846139490616","repostId":"2431899995","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2431899995","pubTimestamp":1714460400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2431899995?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-30 15:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Reversion Angle Became Steeper","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2431899995","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Nvidia Corporation has sharpened the growth reversion angle that I mentioned last time significantly.The market demand profile for AI accelerators is expected to be solid, which could benefit Nvidia’s","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia Corporation has sharpened the growth reversion angle that I mentioned last time significantly.</p></li><li><p>The market demand profile for AI accelerators is expected to be solid, which could benefit Nvidia’s upcoming leading-edge Blackwell architecture.</p></li><li><p>The valuation of Nvidia suggests up to 15% upside potential, leaving behind all the concerns discussed in the article.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" alt=\"BING-JHEN HONG\" title=\"BING-JHEN HONG\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>BING-JHEN HONG</span></p><p>I am still bullish on NVDA, and in my view, its share price (&#34;SP&#34;) could appreciate further by up to 15%, especially with the launch of the new generation Blackwell architecture. In this piece, I will go through the growth potential in data centers and gaming segments and try to present that Nvidia is more than reasonably valued when looking at peers’ comparisons, historical levels, and earnings growth.</p><h2 id=\"id_4099191491\">Growth prospects in this valuation</h2><p>Nvidia has become the main beneficiary of the hype around artificial intelligence, as the stock has appreciated 418% since the launch of Cath GPT. Amid the rapid development of AI technology, which requires a whole new level of HPC for model training/inference, the company saw a significant uptick in demand for GPU-based solutions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d2b994873639b6392c06bde477cfbe6\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"490\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>In addition to the record financials, NVDA reached record valuations, which were unsustainable for those who called it a bubble. However, the stock took a setback recently with a number of concerns behind that, including the pushed back Fed’s interest rate cuts, the disappointing order book from ASML Holding (ASML), and the lack of indication from Super Micro Computer (SMCI) about its March quarter financials.</p><p>Looking at the valuation, we can notice that Nvidia is still trading at prominently higher levels compared to its peers&#39; EV/Sales and P/E ratios. However, in the case of NVDA stock, the direct comparison is not quite reasonable without considering the growth prospects.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/888456a02ab29871103f61ff6e11a32f\" alt=\"Ratio analysis (Seeking Alpha)\" title=\"Ratio analysis (Seeking Alpha)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"180\"/><span>Ratio analysis (Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p>The company is a clear leader in the GPU accelerator segment of the data center market, taking at least 80% up to 97% of it, according to some reports. And to gain some clues about the market dimension, let’s recall AMD’s projection of a $45 billion AI chip total addressable market, or TAM. Given the data center systems spending for 2023, it indicates up to 19% of the overall spending for the year. Moreover, AMD forecasted $400 billion TAM in 2027, citing a substantial increase in AI chip demand.</p><p>Given the above-mentioned numbers, a rough calculation points to around $40 billion in revenue from AI chips for Nvidia in 2023. And if we suppose that the company could retain at least 80% market share, it suggests up to $320 million in revenue by 2027, or 68% CAGR. Quite a bull case, isn’t it? Meanwhile, the analysts from BofA estimated TAM of about $180 billion, which implies a 38% CAGR.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/54d7fb81aeeff1dcfa21668d0dd45b15\" alt=\"Analyst’s growth expectations (Seeking Alpha)\" title=\"Analyst’s growth expectations (Seeking Alpha)\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"160\"/><span>Analyst’s growth expectations (Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p>The latter growth rate seems reasonable for me, and it’s broadly in line with the analyst’s growth expectations. Meanwhile, the competition is also evolving. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) started shipping its new Instinct MI300X GPU recently, which could challenge Nvidia’s H100 in memory-intensive tasks like large scene rendering and simulation, while the latter has been in production for a year and excels in AI-enhanced workflows and ray-traced rendering performance. Intel (INTC) in turn, is expected to launch Gaudi 3 latter this year with 50% faster performance than H100 when it comes to certain language models. However, Nvidia remains in a strong market position, as the H200 chip should basically hit the market any day now, while the next-generation Blackwell architecture is set to launch later in 2024.</p><p>Another issue that should be discussed is the recent supply constraints for the Hooper architecture, which remains in strong demand, according to the management’s comments. Although the supply picture is reportedly improving, it has become a major bottleneck for technology companies and AI researchers who have to compete for AI chips. As a result, some hyperscalers started to seek in-house AI-accelerator solutions. In particular, Alphabet (GOOGL) is known for its own Cloud TPU (tensor processing unit), Amazon (AMZN) produces Trainium chips, International Business Machines (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>) has AIU (artificial intelligence unit), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (META) utilizes MTIA (Meta Training and Inference Accelerator) internally, while Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) launched Maia AI accelerator last year.</p><p>Large cloud providers accounted for more than half of Nvidia’s data center revenue, and fears that they could start displacing Nvidia’s products for their in-house solutions are irrelevant in my view. Especially when there are a number of serverless GPU providers that could offer a distinct top-tier multi-GPU combination. And with the expected round of new GPU offerings hitting the market soon, I believe that hyperscalers will continue opting for Nvidia GPUs to retain dominance in the cloud market.</p><p>Concerning the management’s comments that the inference reached more than 40% of the company’s business, and given the price tag of Nvidia’s data center GPUs (Hopper is estimated to cost between $25-40k) and the estimated performance of the alternative GPUs, it undeniably raised concerns about the inference part of business. However, model training is a continuous process that should be run consistently due to the rising sophistication, upgrades, and bug elimination. So, the more data is generated through the inference, the more data should be processed by the model, and the more powerful GPU solutions are required.</p><p>Another strong growth factor for Nvidia is that it remains the leader in the gaming market. The company reported solid consumer demand for gaming hardware during the holiday season, during which I also became an RTX 40 series user, retiring my old GTX card. With the new DLSS technology, Nvidia could dominate the market further since even budget gamers can now opt for the RTX 4050 card and enjoy Cyberpunk 2077 on ultra-settings with enabled Ray Tracing. At the same time, the demand for senior 40 series cards could be encouraged by the rapid proliferation of VR devices and high-resolution monitors. The entry level for which could be the RTX 4070 SUPER, which was recently released, and is the best overall GPU right now. Moreover, the market for AIB discrete GPUs is improving following the COVID device refresh cycle. The latest surveys revealed that graphics card shipments increased by 32% YoY in Q4’23 to 9.5 million units, making an increase for three quarters in a row.</p><h2 id=\"id_1799736774\">Reversion angle</h2><p>Since my last article, the valuation of NVDA has normalized significantly. The forward P/E ratio declined from 59.2x to 35.1x, something that consensus previously expected to happen in Jan 2026 fiscal year. Last time, I mentioned that a 30% growth reversion angle could bring the valuation ratio down to the low 20x in FY2028. However, from the current point of view, this could happen much earlier, as the reversion angle sharpened significantly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dd1c5098d28d84d86fa95e87cd44f74e\" alt=\"Valuation of NVDA; P/E left; EPS right (prepared by author)\" title=\"Valuation of NVDA; P/E left; EPS right (prepared by author)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\"/><span>Valuation of NVDA; P/E left; EPS right (prepared by author)</span></p><p>The chart above clearly delineates this pattern, as the green line (earnings per share) has climbed significantly, thanks to the accelerated growth of data center segment performance. This brought the company’s P/E ratio down substantially, which is now below the violet line, which in turn indicates median 3Y P/E at 40.5x. The two dotted lines represent one standard deviation above and below the median, and we can see that NVDA’s valuation has been hanging around the lower line over the last 6 months. We can also notice that there is a prominent way for multiple expansion towards the median line, which implies a 15.5% upside to $1 013 share price.</p><p>Before transitioning to the comparison with peers, I would like to clear up the doubts that NVDA has climbed to unsustainable levels.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b4b8d129c78b1a55e239d6ecd5e4cf2\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Over the last three years, NVDA’s SP has appreciated by 485%, especially since the launch of ChatGPT. However, the earnings growth followed suit, up by 463% for the same period, thus justifying the company’s valuation from the EPS growth perspective.</p><p>Now, compared to AMD, Intel, Broadcom (AVGO) and Qualcomm (QCOM), let’s see how Nvidia is ranking while incorporating future growth expectations.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e17079ca097c546321df5552696e987\" alt=\"EPS growth and P/E scatter (prepared by author )\" title=\"EPS growth and P/E scatter (prepared by author )\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span>EPS growth and P/E scatter (prepared by author )</span></p><p>Clearly below the trend line, suggesting that the company’s 90%+ earnings growth estimate more than justifies the fwd P/E level of 35.1x. Moreover, it means that to bring the company’s valuation in line with the trend line, NVDA&#39;s stock price should appreciate at least to the $954 level, or by 8.8%.</p><p>Finally, I would like to discuss the chart blow in order not to find ourselves in an insidious growth trap. Nvidia reported 5x YoY growth in compute revenue and 3x YoY growth in networking sales, and overall, a 409% YoY surge in data center LOB revenue.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/61726597e0ceb745e1623efb304f433b\" alt=\"Data center revenue (company presentation)\" title=\"Data center revenue (company presentation)\" tg-width=\"441\" tg-height=\"293\"/><span>Data center revenue (company presentation)</span></p><p>Previously, we mentioned that the segment has the potential for up to 38% CAGR over the medium term. But investors may not like to see such low numbers. The recent growth pattern from the chart is due to the low base effect from a year ago, and my point is that market participants should be satisfied even with up to 10% sequential quarterly growth in the data center revenue. Certainly, at some point, NVDA will come down to such rates due to the accelerated growth last year. And given that Nvidia has a leading market share in AI accelerators, we can easily gain insight into the data center cycle because such advanced and expensive GPUs are not usually going through the channel but are sold directly to customers. This means one-for-one impact, bypassing channel inventory, and less volatile market trends compared to gaming, for example. As a result, it’s not likely that we could witness a significant decline in sales, in my view, and the concerns may be raised only in the case of two or three quarters of sequential decrease in data center sales.</p><h2 id=\"id_812255582\">Risk factors</h2><p>The tight monetary policy continues to put pressure on technology budgets. Nvidia is currently a leader in the AI chip market for data centers, while potential supply chain issues could result in stronger adoption of rivals’ products. Risks are also related to further tightening of the U.S. export restrictions in relation to China, which still remains a significant market for Nvidia. In addition, the company has risen strongly over the past year due to the optimistic forecast and positive trends in the AI market. If these trends are compromised by further deterioration of the global economic situation, investors may find themselves disappointed.</p><h2 id=\"id_421798531\">Investment conclusion</h2><p>I am keeping my bullish call on Nvidia since the company delivered much stronger earnings than my previous piece suggested. NVDA is trading at a more than reasonable valuation, as evidenced by peers’ comparisons and EPS growth, offering up to 15% additional upside at current levels.</p><p>I believe that Nvidia will remain in the leading positions for the AI-accelerator solutions, leaving behind all the concerns we mentioned above. At this point, the competition could offer alternatives to Hopper architecture, leaving Nvidia with the potential to skim the cream from the data center’s GPU market with the upcoming next-generation Blackwell chips. With this in mind, I believe that the company could maintain closer to mid-double-digit growth numbers in data center revenue, especially once hyperscalers and other cloud GPU providers start deploying leading-edge AI hardware to handle more demanding models.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Reversion Angle Became Steeper</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Reversion Angle Became Steeper\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-30 15:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4687220-nvidia-reversion-angle-became-steeper><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corporation has sharpened the growth reversion angle that I mentioned last time significantly.The market demand profile for AI accelerators is expected to be solid, which could benefit Nvidia’s...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4687220-nvidia-reversion-angle-became-steeper\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4514":"搜索引擎","LU1642822529.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4515":"5G概念","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4147":"半导体设备","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4576":"AR","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4687220-nvidia-reversion-angle-became-steeper","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2431899995","content_text":"Nvidia Corporation has sharpened the growth reversion angle that I mentioned last time significantly.The market demand profile for AI accelerators is expected to be solid, which could benefit Nvidia’s upcoming leading-edge Blackwell architecture.The valuation of Nvidia suggests up to 15% upside potential, leaving behind all the concerns discussed in the article.BING-JHEN HONGI am still bullish on NVDA, and in my view, its share price (\"SP\") could appreciate further by up to 15%, especially with the launch of the new generation Blackwell architecture. In this piece, I will go through the growth potential in data centers and gaming segments and try to present that Nvidia is more than reasonably valued when looking at peers’ comparisons, historical levels, and earnings growth.Growth prospects in this valuationNvidia has become the main beneficiary of the hype around artificial intelligence, as the stock has appreciated 418% since the launch of Cath GPT. Amid the rapid development of AI technology, which requires a whole new level of HPC for model training/inference, the company saw a significant uptick in demand for GPU-based solutions.Data by YChartsIn addition to the record financials, NVDA reached record valuations, which were unsustainable for those who called it a bubble. However, the stock took a setback recently with a number of concerns behind that, including the pushed back Fed’s interest rate cuts, the disappointing order book from ASML Holding (ASML), and the lack of indication from Super Micro Computer (SMCI) about its March quarter financials.Looking at the valuation, we can notice that Nvidia is still trading at prominently higher levels compared to its peers' EV/Sales and P/E ratios. However, in the case of NVDA stock, the direct comparison is not quite reasonable without considering the growth prospects.Ratio analysis (Seeking Alpha)The company is a clear leader in the GPU accelerator segment of the data center market, taking at least 80% up to 97% of it, according to some reports. And to gain some clues about the market dimension, let’s recall AMD’s projection of a $45 billion AI chip total addressable market, or TAM. Given the data center systems spending for 2023, it indicates up to 19% of the overall spending for the year. Moreover, AMD forecasted $400 billion TAM in 2027, citing a substantial increase in AI chip demand.Given the above-mentioned numbers, a rough calculation points to around $40 billion in revenue from AI chips for Nvidia in 2023. And if we suppose that the company could retain at least 80% market share, it suggests up to $320 million in revenue by 2027, or 68% CAGR. Quite a bull case, isn’t it? Meanwhile, the analysts from BofA estimated TAM of about $180 billion, which implies a 38% CAGR.Analyst’s growth expectations (Seeking Alpha)The latter growth rate seems reasonable for me, and it’s broadly in line with the analyst’s growth expectations. Meanwhile, the competition is also evolving. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) started shipping its new Instinct MI300X GPU recently, which could challenge Nvidia’s H100 in memory-intensive tasks like large scene rendering and simulation, while the latter has been in production for a year and excels in AI-enhanced workflows and ray-traced rendering performance. Intel (INTC) in turn, is expected to launch Gaudi 3 latter this year with 50% faster performance than H100 when it comes to certain language models. However, Nvidia remains in a strong market position, as the H200 chip should basically hit the market any day now, while the next-generation Blackwell architecture is set to launch later in 2024.Another issue that should be discussed is the recent supply constraints for the Hooper architecture, which remains in strong demand, according to the management’s comments. Although the supply picture is reportedly improving, it has become a major bottleneck for technology companies and AI researchers who have to compete for AI chips. As a result, some hyperscalers started to seek in-house AI-accelerator solutions. In particular, Alphabet (GOOGL) is known for its own Cloud TPU (tensor processing unit), Amazon (AMZN) produces Trainium chips, International Business Machines (IBM) has AIU (artificial intelligence unit), Meta Platforms (META) utilizes MTIA (Meta Training and Inference Accelerator) internally, while Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) launched Maia AI accelerator last year.Large cloud providers accounted for more than half of Nvidia’s data center revenue, and fears that they could start displacing Nvidia’s products for their in-house solutions are irrelevant in my view. Especially when there are a number of serverless GPU providers that could offer a distinct top-tier multi-GPU combination. And with the expected round of new GPU offerings hitting the market soon, I believe that hyperscalers will continue opting for Nvidia GPUs to retain dominance in the cloud market.Concerning the management’s comments that the inference reached more than 40% of the company’s business, and given the price tag of Nvidia’s data center GPUs (Hopper is estimated to cost between $25-40k) and the estimated performance of the alternative GPUs, it undeniably raised concerns about the inference part of business. However, model training is a continuous process that should be run consistently due to the rising sophistication, upgrades, and bug elimination. So, the more data is generated through the inference, the more data should be processed by the model, and the more powerful GPU solutions are required.Another strong growth factor for Nvidia is that it remains the leader in the gaming market. The company reported solid consumer demand for gaming hardware during the holiday season, during which I also became an RTX 40 series user, retiring my old GTX card. With the new DLSS technology, Nvidia could dominate the market further since even budget gamers can now opt for the RTX 4050 card and enjoy Cyberpunk 2077 on ultra-settings with enabled Ray Tracing. At the same time, the demand for senior 40 series cards could be encouraged by the rapid proliferation of VR devices and high-resolution monitors. The entry level for which could be the RTX 4070 SUPER, which was recently released, and is the best overall GPU right now. Moreover, the market for AIB discrete GPUs is improving following the COVID device refresh cycle. The latest surveys revealed that graphics card shipments increased by 32% YoY in Q4’23 to 9.5 million units, making an increase for three quarters in a row.Reversion angleSince my last article, the valuation of NVDA has normalized significantly. The forward P/E ratio declined from 59.2x to 35.1x, something that consensus previously expected to happen in Jan 2026 fiscal year. Last time, I mentioned that a 30% growth reversion angle could bring the valuation ratio down to the low 20x in FY2028. However, from the current point of view, this could happen much earlier, as the reversion angle sharpened significantly.Valuation of NVDA; P/E left; EPS right (prepared by author)The chart above clearly delineates this pattern, as the green line (earnings per share) has climbed significantly, thanks to the accelerated growth of data center segment performance. This brought the company’s P/E ratio down substantially, which is now below the violet line, which in turn indicates median 3Y P/E at 40.5x. The two dotted lines represent one standard deviation above and below the median, and we can see that NVDA’s valuation has been hanging around the lower line over the last 6 months. We can also notice that there is a prominent way for multiple expansion towards the median line, which implies a 15.5% upside to $1 013 share price.Before transitioning to the comparison with peers, I would like to clear up the doubts that NVDA has climbed to unsustainable levels.Data by YChartsOver the last three years, NVDA’s SP has appreciated by 485%, especially since the launch of ChatGPT. However, the earnings growth followed suit, up by 463% for the same period, thus justifying the company’s valuation from the EPS growth perspective.Now, compared to AMD, Intel, Broadcom (AVGO) and Qualcomm (QCOM), let’s see how Nvidia is ranking while incorporating future growth expectations.EPS growth and P/E scatter (prepared by author )Clearly below the trend line, suggesting that the company’s 90%+ earnings growth estimate more than justifies the fwd P/E level of 35.1x. Moreover, it means that to bring the company’s valuation in line with the trend line, NVDA's stock price should appreciate at least to the $954 level, or by 8.8%.Finally, I would like to discuss the chart blow in order not to find ourselves in an insidious growth trap. Nvidia reported 5x YoY growth in compute revenue and 3x YoY growth in networking sales, and overall, a 409% YoY surge in data center LOB revenue.Data center revenue (company presentation)Previously, we mentioned that the segment has the potential for up to 38% CAGR over the medium term. But investors may not like to see such low numbers. The recent growth pattern from the chart is due to the low base effect from a year ago, and my point is that market participants should be satisfied even with up to 10% sequential quarterly growth in the data center revenue. Certainly, at some point, NVDA will come down to such rates due to the accelerated growth last year. And given that Nvidia has a leading market share in AI accelerators, we can easily gain insight into the data center cycle because such advanced and expensive GPUs are not usually going through the channel but are sold directly to customers. This means one-for-one impact, bypassing channel inventory, and less volatile market trends compared to gaming, for example. As a result, it’s not likely that we could witness a significant decline in sales, in my view, and the concerns may be raised only in the case of two or three quarters of sequential decrease in data center sales.Risk factorsThe tight monetary policy continues to put pressure on technology budgets. Nvidia is currently a leader in the AI chip market for data centers, while potential supply chain issues could result in stronger adoption of rivals’ products. Risks are also related to further tightening of the U.S. export restrictions in relation to China, which still remains a significant market for Nvidia. In addition, the company has risen strongly over the past year due to the optimistic forecast and positive trends in the AI market. If these trends are compromised by further deterioration of the global economic situation, investors may find themselves disappointed.Investment conclusionI am keeping my bullish call on Nvidia since the company delivered much stronger earnings than my previous piece suggested. NVDA is trading at a more than reasonable valuation, as evidenced by peers’ comparisons and EPS growth, offering up to 15% additional upside at current levels.I believe that Nvidia will remain in the leading positions for the AI-accelerator solutions, leaving behind all the concerns we mentioned above. At this point, the competition could offer alternatives to Hopper architecture, leaving Nvidia with the potential to skim the cream from the data center’s GPU market with the upcoming next-generation Blackwell chips. With this in mind, I believe that the company could maintain closer to mid-double-digit growth numbers in data center revenue, especially once hyperscalers and other cloud GPU providers start deploying leading-edge AI hardware to handle more demanding models.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300432909648176,"gmtCreate":1714367400577,"gmtModify":1714367402856,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"财富效应","listText":"财富效应","text":"财富效应","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300432909648176","repostId":"1161791449","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161791449","pubTimestamp":1714292710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161791449?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-28 16:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Is Doubling Down on Nvidia Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161791449","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"$Nvidia(NVDA)$ is rising today on the news that Morgan Stanley (MS) has upped its bet on NVDA stock.The investment bank sees big things ahead for the artificial intelligence (AI) leader.NVDA stock is ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> is rising today on the news that Morgan Stanley (MS) has upped its bet on NVDA stock.</p></li><li><p>The investment bank sees big things ahead for the artificial intelligence (AI) leader.</p></li><li><p>NVDA stock is likely to keep rising as Wall Street enthusiasm continues to spread.</p></li></ul><p>Wall Street’s enthusiasm for Nvidia isn’t slowing down. The vast majority of analysts currently rate it as a “buy” and maintain bullish price targets. But one prominent financial institution just increased its bet on the artificial intelligence (AI) leader, seizing on the opportunity to acquire NVDA stock on a recent dip. Morgan Stanley has staked an even bigger bet on the AI breakout sensation, which it currently maintains an “overweight” rating and $1,000 price target.</p><p>The investment bank noted that Nvidia’s pricing power and economies of scale were factors in its decision to double down on shares. “This multiple reflects a premium to other semiconductor peers, due to expansion in all AI names as well as the team’s higher conviction in estimates given NVDA’s higher AI exposure,” the investment bank stated in a recent note to investors. This news has provided a boost for both MS and NVDA stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_3157892583\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Why Morgan Stanley Loves NVDA Stock</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As noted, most of Wall Street is highly bullish on Nvidia. Out of 41 polled analysts, 39 maintain “buy” ratings and none rate it as a “sell.” Few stocks can boast such positive sentiment, but Nvidia has demonstrated the type of growth that’s hard not to marvel at.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Morgan Stanley doesn’t have the highest NVDA stock price target. But since the company recently increased its Nvidia position, its take is worth taking a closer look. As <em>Fortune</em> reports:</p><blockquote><p><em>“Even after surging more than 200% in the past 12 months alone, Nvidia emerges as a potential big winner this earnings season, according to Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore. Moore has a buy-equivalent “overweight” rating on shares of Nvidia, and expects the stock to spike 21% to $1,000 over the next 12 months as it dominates its AI competition. “NVDA continues to see strong spending trends in AI, with upward revisions in demand from some of the newer customers such as Tesla and various sovereigns,” he wrote.”</em></p></blockquote><p>Moore raised his price target early in April 2024, citing a likely increase in spending on Nvidia’s chips, an extremely important component of the AI revolution. NVDA stock is still down slightly for the month, but it has risen steadily over the past week and is in the green today.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Even while competition continues to mount throughout the AI sector, Nvidia remains the undisputed leader with a client list that only seems to be growing. Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group recently announced plans to start building out its own generative AI model, which it intends to do by purchasing chips from Nvidia.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This recent endorsement from Morgan Stanley is all Nvidia needs to keep growing. More and more companies are jumping on board the AI train by attempting to build their own models. In many cases, that means coming to Nvidia for essential components. NVDA stock is primed to continue rising in 2024 and push past Moore’s $1,000 price target.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Is Doubling Down on Nvidia Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Is Doubling Down on Nvidia Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-28 16:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2024/04/morgan-stanley-is-doubling-down-on-nvidia-nvda-stock/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia is rising today on the news that Morgan Stanley (MS) has upped its bet on NVDA stock.The investment bank sees big things ahead for the artificial intelligence (AI) leader.NVDA stock is likely ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2024/04/morgan-stanley-is-doubling-down-on-nvidia-nvda-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2024/04/morgan-stanley-is-doubling-down-on-nvidia-nvda-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161791449","content_text":"Nvidia is rising today on the news that Morgan Stanley (MS) has upped its bet on NVDA stock.The investment bank sees big things ahead for the artificial intelligence (AI) leader.NVDA stock is likely to keep rising as Wall Street enthusiasm continues to spread.Wall Street’s enthusiasm for Nvidia isn’t slowing down. The vast majority of analysts currently rate it as a “buy” and maintain bullish price targets. But one prominent financial institution just increased its bet on the artificial intelligence (AI) leader, seizing on the opportunity to acquire NVDA stock on a recent dip. Morgan Stanley has staked an even bigger bet on the AI breakout sensation, which it currently maintains an “overweight” rating and $1,000 price target.The investment bank noted that Nvidia’s pricing power and economies of scale were factors in its decision to double down on shares. “This multiple reflects a premium to other semiconductor peers, due to expansion in all AI names as well as the team’s higher conviction in estimates given NVDA’s higher AI exposure,” the investment bank stated in a recent note to investors. This news has provided a boost for both MS and NVDA stock.Why Morgan Stanley Loves NVDA StockAs noted, most of Wall Street is highly bullish on Nvidia. Out of 41 polled analysts, 39 maintain “buy” ratings and none rate it as a “sell.” Few stocks can boast such positive sentiment, but Nvidia has demonstrated the type of growth that’s hard not to marvel at.Morgan Stanley doesn’t have the highest NVDA stock price target. But since the company recently increased its Nvidia position, its take is worth taking a closer look. As Fortune reports:“Even after surging more than 200% in the past 12 months alone, Nvidia emerges as a potential big winner this earnings season, according to Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore. Moore has a buy-equivalent “overweight” rating on shares of Nvidia, and expects the stock to spike 21% to $1,000 over the next 12 months as it dominates its AI competition. “NVDA continues to see strong spending trends in AI, with upward revisions in demand from some of the newer customers such as Tesla and various sovereigns,” he wrote.”Moore raised his price target early in April 2024, citing a likely increase in spending on Nvidia’s chips, an extremely important component of the AI revolution. NVDA stock is still down slightly for the month, but it has risen steadily over the past week and is in the green today.Even while competition continues to mount throughout the AI sector, Nvidia remains the undisputed leader with a client list that only seems to be growing. Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group recently announced plans to start building out its own generative AI model, which it intends to do by purchasing chips from Nvidia.This recent endorsement from Morgan Stanley is all Nvidia needs to keep growing. More and more companies are jumping on board the AI train by attempting to build their own models. In many cases, that means coming to Nvidia for essential components. NVDA stock is primed to continue rising in 2024 and push past Moore’s $1,000 price target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299353481248768,"gmtCreate":1714109676038,"gmtModify":1714109677338,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299353481248768","repostId":"2430029686","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2430029686","pubTimestamp":1714097040,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2430029686?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-26 10:04","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"谷歌高管解读Q1财报：AI会为云业务带来拐点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2430029686","media":"新浪科技","summary":"　　Alphabet今天发布了截至3月31日的2024财年第一季度财报：总营收为805.39亿美元，同比增长15%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长16%；按照美国通用会计准则，Alphabet第一季度净利润为236.62亿美元，同比增长57%；每股摊薄收益为1.89美元，与上年同期的1.17美元相比实现增长。　　财报发布后，谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊，总裁、首席投资官兼CFO露丝·波拉特和首席商务官菲利普·辛德勒召开了分析师电话会议，回答了相关业务的问题。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 专题：聚焦美股2023年第三季度财报 </p>\n<p>　　Alphabet（<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a></span><span></span>母公司）今天发布了截至3月31日的2024财年第一季度财报：总营收为805.39亿美元，同比增长15%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长16%；按照美国通用会计准则，Alphabet第一季度净利润为236.62亿美元，同比增长57%；每股摊薄收益为1.89美元，与上年同期的1.17美元相比实现增长。</p>\n<blockquote>　　详见：谷歌母公司Alphabet一季度营收805亿美元 宣布史上首个股息计划</blockquote>\n<p>　　财报发布后，<strong>谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊（Sundar Pichai），总裁、首席投资官兼CFO露丝·波拉特（Ruth Porat）和首席商务官菲利普·辛德勒（Philipp Schindler）</strong>召开了分析师电话会议，回答了相关业务的问题。</p>\n<p>　　<strong>以下是分析师电话会议回答摘要：</strong></p>\n<p><strong>　　<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a></span><span></span>分析师Brian Nowak：</strong>我的第一个问题有关用户的整体搜索行为变化。菲利普，您之前曾谈到谷歌的用户检索趋势保持增长，如果把目光放在业务变现的话，目前谷歌的搜索业务变现趋势是否也有变化？因为新用户源源不断的加入，可能业务变现趋势也会随之变动。</p>\n<p>　　我的第二个问题想问露丝。之前您谈到会进一步减缓集团的费用支出增速。您能否为我们举一些具体例子？比如在您看来，2024年公司内部还有哪些能进一步优化的工作流程？或者说哪些业务还能进一步压缩运营支出？</p>\n<p><strong>　　桑达尔·皮查伊：</strong>关于你的第一个问题。总的来说，多年来的运营经验告诉我们，如果用户生态运转良好，业务变现也会随之而来。目前来看，我们搜索业务的趋势表现很好。将生成式人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>（generative AI）引入搜索业务确实有效拓宽了检索类型，以便我们为用户提供更多样的检索方式。此外，人工智能的引入还能让我们回答各种类型的、更复杂的问题。</p>\n<p>　　至于你问到的变现趋势，目前来看一切还都处在早期阶段，我们会将用户体验放在首位。但我们对未来搜索业务的变现趋势非常看好。</p>\n<p><strong>　　露丝·波拉特：</strong>关于你的第二个问题。其实之前桑达尔和我都曾提到，<strong>我们将继续发力，持续降低公司的费用增长速度。</strong>这项工作在我们内部称为“持续性成本结构优化”（Durably Reengineer Cost Base）。在前面的简报中我们也提到，我们非常清楚当前公司面对的大环境逆风影响，比如货币贬值、较高的折旧率与资本支出费用等等。从这个角度来说，对成本结构的持续优化与重新设计的工作会一直继续。</p>\n<p>　　在之前的电话会议中其实我们也与大家分享过，我们的工作一直是从业务、产品以及工作流的重要性与优先级出发，目的在于提高组织效率、优化组织结构。举例来说，之前桑达尔曾提到将服务、设备与平台生态系统相结合，整合团队资源。这不仅能帮助我们提高产品质量、优化用户体验，同时也能帮助我们提升工作速度与效率。此外，之前我也与大家分享过我们对技术基础设施的优化，桑达尔还提到我们会利用人工智能技术简化内部运营，提升效率；再比如我们还与供应商、销售商一道优化了采购流程，同时对公司的房地产业务进行优化等等。以上工作都是在持续进行的，同时也是“持续性成本结构优化”工作的一部分。</p>\n<p>　<strong>　瑞士信贷分析师Stephen Ju：</strong>我的问题想问菲利普。自从在YouTube Shorts（YouTube竖屏短视频软件）上投放广告已经过去两年的时间，每季度您都会与我们分享YouTube Shorts广告业务的盈利变化。从这点出发，我看到YouTube为广告商推出了一系列广告产品与自动化工具，帮助他们更好地投放竖屏广告产品。能否请您与我们分享一下目前广告商对YouTube广告产品的购买行为变化？另外，根据您过去两年的观察，影响YouTube广告变现有哪些结构性因素？目前YouTube横屏广告业务表现如何？</p>\n<p><strong>　　菲利普·辛德勒：</strong>总的来说，我们认为YouTube的表现还是非常强劲的。特别是<strong>在美国地区，相比12个月之前，本季度YouTube Shorts的变现率增加了一倍多。</strong>我们对YouTube Shorts当前的表现非常满意。大家不妨这样想，广告商只有在获得正向积极的投资回报率（ROI）时才会持续在我们这里投资，所以如果表现不够优秀，广告商是不会选择在我们这里投钱的。这点非常重要。</p>\n<p>　　总的来说，YouTube Shorts与我们而言是一项长期工作，它能帮助我们满足创作者与观众对短视频的强劲需求。此前我也与大家分享过，YouTube Shorts目前的日均浏览量已经达到700亿次，多渠道上载量同比增加了50%。</p>\n<p>　　最后，关于你提到的结构性影响因素。目前来说我很难给出具体回答，还需要一段时间的观察。</p>\n<p>　<strong>　美林美银分析师Justin Post：</strong>我的问题还是有关资本支出。从数据上来看，资本支出似乎是公司当前最大的资金投资项目。我看到在过去两个季度，公司的资本支出大幅增长，但其实谷歌多年来一直都在投资人工智能领域。我的问题是，这种资本支出增长背后的原因是什么？是因为当前的供应处于顺风、较为容易获取？还是说现在是推动人工智能发展的好机会，管理层认为是时候加大投资？</p>\n<p>　　另外，关于广告业务与云业务的资本支出回报。您认为提高资本支出是否意味着业务成本也相应推高？还是说管理层认为提高资本支出能为公司带来比过去更强、更好的回报机遇？</p>\n<p><strong>　　露丝·波拉特：</strong>正如桑达尔和我之前与大家分享的一样，公司资本支出的增加意味着我们其实在公司多项业务中都看到了增长机遇，包括大型语言模型Gemini、云服务、谷歌云平台（GCP）以及基础设施等方面的增长，再比如搜索业务、YouTube等等。这些都是不断增长的业务重点，我们需要确保自身有足够的资金能力支撑这些业务发展机遇。</p>\n<p>这也就引出了你的第二个问题，我们相信增加各项业务的资本支出能够为我们带来更高的收入机会。我们对变现机会非常关注，这也是支撑谷歌服务、谷歌云业务等的关键基础。另外，桑达尔之前也指出，我们对公司的效率也非常关注，会尽可能地优化流程、提升效率，确保软件、硬件、计算能力等匹配得上公司的快速发展。</p>\n<p><strong>　　<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI分析师Jane Lee：</strong>我的第一个问题还是有关谷歌的搜索业务。谷歌之前也推出了人工智能聊天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>，在这样的大背景下，管理层认为人工智能技术在搜索业务中的应用能否帮助搜索业务实现搜索量的大幅变化？或者说人工智能技术的应用能否带来创造性的搜索功能变化？能否请管理层与我们分享您在这方面的看法以及对未来的期待？</p>\n<p>　　我的第二个问题有关YouTube与云业务。目前谷歌的YouTube业务与云业务运行率都达到千亿级别。管理层对这两项业务的前景有何看法？未来云业务需求是否会出现拐点？生成式人工智能技术会为业务带来哪些巨变？能否请管理层与我们具体分享一下。</p>\n<p><strong>　　桑达尔·皮查伊：</strong>关于你的第一个问题。之前我曾与大家分享过相关看法，这里我再明确一次。</p>\n<p>　　在我们看来，<strong>现在正是搜索业务增长的利好时期。生成式人工智能技术的应用能让我们从纵深上拓展产品。</strong>大家要知道，搜索是一种非常独特的体验，用户选择搜索，是因为他们想要获取答案、想要探索更多、想要从网络上获取新的知识与观点、想要从深度与广度两方面了解他们在查询的内容。我们需要确保技术的创新跟得上用户需求，这也是一直以来我们所做的工作。目前来看，我对我们的进展非常满意，特别是我对当前公司的创新很自豪。</p>\n<p>　　总的来说，我认为现在是搜索业务增长的利好时期。</p>\n<p><strong>　　露丝·波拉特：</strong>我同意桑达尔在简报中提到的，目前我们在这些业务中观察到强劲的业绩与增长势头。随着时间的推移，我们将继续发展业务、扩大业务规模。上季度的财报会议其实我们也提到了，我们为公司团队工作所取得的进展而感到满意。他们创造很多机遇，为用户、客户、广告商提供了多重服务，多年来也帮助公司拓宽了业务规模。</p>\n<p><strong>　　<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a></span><span></span>分析师Ken Gawrelski：</strong>我的第一个问题有关GCP。我看到谷歌的GCP业务本季度增速良好。如果GCP想要实现加速增长、获取更大市场份额，管理层认为目前GCP面临着哪些机遇？又有哪些因素限制着GCP发展？未来GCP会更侧重销售，还是产品与解决方案？或者说二者兼而有之？另外，对于GCP业务，管理层是否计划与外部公司合作？还是说GCP业务会完全属于谷歌内部生态系统？</p>\n<p>　　我的第二个问题有关YouTube的体育赛事转播授权。对于未来YouTube体育赛事转播授权，管理层有哪些规划或者说看法？我们知道接下来几年可能会有更多大型赛事的转播版权流入市场。能否请管理层谈一谈您对这项业务的核心理念？比如NFL职业橄榄球大联盟、全美职业橄榄球大联盟“周日门票”等等。</p>\n<p><strong>　　桑达尔·皮查伊：云业务方面。人工智能技术的引入绝对会为业务带来拐点。</strong></p>\n<p>　　人工智能技术带来的业务转型促使各方都在思考如何参与进来。举例来说，考虑到谷歌人工智能模型的深度与广度，人们希望vertexAI（谷歌推出的托管式机器学习平台）能帮助他们提升效率，或者通过Google Workspace提高生产力。人工智能技术确实为我们带来了非常多的机遇。</p>\n<p>　　<strong>至于说是内部工作还是会寻求外部合作，我认为二者兼而有之。</strong>一部分工作会在谷歌内部进行，我们也不拒绝与外部伙伴进行合作。大家要知道，挑战一直存在，用户迁移上云是需要成本的。我们需要解决的挑战在于，如何让用户迁移上云的过程更容易、更顺利？对此我们会进行持续投资，以便为用户带去更多便利。</p>\n<p><strong>　　菲利普·辛德勒：</strong>关于体育赛事转播权的问题。谷歌与全美乃至全球许多非常受欢迎的体育联盟、球队、运动员、广播公司等都建立了长期且重要的合作伙伴关系，这些合作伙伴关系加之YouTube上庞大的体育迷基数，能够带来大量的订阅数与产品投资。但目前我没有更多新内容与大家分享。当然，一直以来我们都在寻找如何为用户、广告商、视频创作者创造更高价值的机会。</p>\n<p>　　（持续更新中。。。）</p>\n<div> </div>\n<div>\n<span>股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你&gt;&gt;</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：刘明亮 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谷歌高管解读Q1财报：AI会为云业务带来拐点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌高管解读Q1财报：AI会为云业务带来拐点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-26 10:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-26/doc-inatcmza6898861.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>专题：聚焦美股2023年第三季度财报 \n　　Alphabet（谷歌母公司）今天发布了截至3月31日的2024财年第一季度财报：总营收为805.39亿美元，同比增长15%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长16%；按照美国通用会计准则，Alphabet第一季度净利润为236.62亿美元，同比增长57%；每股摊薄收益为1.89美元，与上年同期的1.17美元相比实现增长。\n　　详见：谷歌母公司...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-26/doc-inatcmza6898861.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-04-26/doc-inatcmza6898861.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2430029686","content_text":"专题：聚焦美股2023年第三季度财报 \n　　Alphabet（谷歌母公司）今天发布了截至3月31日的2024财年第一季度财报：总营收为805.39亿美元，同比增长15%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长16%；按照美国通用会计准则，Alphabet第一季度净利润为236.62亿美元，同比增长57%；每股摊薄收益为1.89美元，与上年同期的1.17美元相比实现增长。\n　　详见：谷歌母公司Alphabet一季度营收805亿美元 宣布史上首个股息计划\n　　财报发布后，谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊（Sundar Pichai），总裁、首席投资官兼CFO露丝·波拉特（Ruth Porat）和首席商务官菲利普·辛德勒（Philipp Schindler）召开了分析师电话会议，回答了相关业务的问题。\n　　以下是分析师电话会议回答摘要：\n　　摩根士丹利分析师Brian Nowak：我的第一个问题有关用户的整体搜索行为变化。菲利普，您之前曾谈到谷歌的用户检索趋势保持增长，如果把目光放在业务变现的话，目前谷歌的搜索业务变现趋势是否也有变化？因为新用户源源不断的加入，可能业务变现趋势也会随之变动。\n　　我的第二个问题想问露丝。之前您谈到会进一步减缓集团的费用支出增速。您能否为我们举一些具体例子？比如在您看来，2024年公司内部还有哪些能进一步优化的工作流程？或者说哪些业务还能进一步压缩运营支出？\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：关于你的第一个问题。总的来说，多年来的运营经验告诉我们，如果用户生态运转良好，业务变现也会随之而来。目前来看，我们搜索业务的趋势表现很好。将生成式人工智能（generative AI）引入搜索业务确实有效拓宽了检索类型，以便我们为用户提供更多样的检索方式。此外，人工智能的引入还能让我们回答各种类型的、更复杂的问题。\n　　至于你问到的变现趋势，目前来看一切还都处在早期阶段，我们会将用户体验放在首位。但我们对未来搜索业务的变现趋势非常看好。\n　　露丝·波拉特：关于你的第二个问题。其实之前桑达尔和我都曾提到，我们将继续发力，持续降低公司的费用增长速度。这项工作在我们内部称为“持续性成本结构优化”（Durably Reengineer Cost Base）。在前面的简报中我们也提到，我们非常清楚当前公司面对的大环境逆风影响，比如货币贬值、较高的折旧率与资本支出费用等等。从这个角度来说，对成本结构的持续优化与重新设计的工作会一直继续。\n　　在之前的电话会议中其实我们也与大家分享过，我们的工作一直是从业务、产品以及工作流的重要性与优先级出发，目的在于提高组织效率、优化组织结构。举例来说，之前桑达尔曾提到将服务、设备与平台生态系统相结合，整合团队资源。这不仅能帮助我们提高产品质量、优化用户体验，同时也能帮助我们提升工作速度与效率。此外，之前我也与大家分享过我们对技术基础设施的优化，桑达尔还提到我们会利用人工智能技术简化内部运营，提升效率；再比如我们还与供应商、销售商一道优化了采购流程，同时对公司的房地产业务进行优化等等。以上工作都是在持续进行的，同时也是“持续性成本结构优化”工作的一部分。\n　　瑞士信贷分析师Stephen Ju：我的问题想问菲利普。自从在YouTube Shorts（YouTube竖屏短视频软件）上投放广告已经过去两年的时间，每季度您都会与我们分享YouTube Shorts广告业务的盈利变化。从这点出发，我看到YouTube为广告商推出了一系列广告产品与自动化工具，帮助他们更好地投放竖屏广告产品。能否请您与我们分享一下目前广告商对YouTube广告产品的购买行为变化？另外，根据您过去两年的观察，影响YouTube广告变现有哪些结构性因素？目前YouTube横屏广告业务表现如何？\n　　菲利普·辛德勒：总的来说，我们认为YouTube的表现还是非常强劲的。特别是在美国地区，相比12个月之前，本季度YouTube Shorts的变现率增加了一倍多。我们对YouTube Shorts当前的表现非常满意。大家不妨这样想，广告商只有在获得正向积极的投资回报率（ROI）时才会持续在我们这里投资，所以如果表现不够优秀，广告商是不会选择在我们这里投钱的。这点非常重要。\n　　总的来说，YouTube Shorts与我们而言是一项长期工作，它能帮助我们满足创作者与观众对短视频的强劲需求。此前我也与大家分享过，YouTube Shorts目前的日均浏览量已经达到700亿次，多渠道上载量同比增加了50%。\n　　最后，关于你提到的结构性影响因素。目前来说我很难给出具体回答，还需要一段时间的观察。\n　　美林美银分析师Justin Post：我的问题还是有关资本支出。从数据上来看，资本支出似乎是公司当前最大的资金投资项目。我看到在过去两个季度，公司的资本支出大幅增长，但其实谷歌多年来一直都在投资人工智能领域。我的问题是，这种资本支出增长背后的原因是什么？是因为当前的供应处于顺风、较为容易获取？还是说现在是推动人工智能发展的好机会，管理层认为是时候加大投资？\n　　另外，关于广告业务与云业务的资本支出回报。您认为提高资本支出是否意味着业务成本也相应推高？还是说管理层认为提高资本支出能为公司带来比过去更强、更好的回报机遇？\n　　露丝·波拉特：正如桑达尔和我之前与大家分享的一样，公司资本支出的增加意味着我们其实在公司多项业务中都看到了增长机遇，包括大型语言模型Gemini、云服务、谷歌云平台（GCP）以及基础设施等方面的增长，再比如搜索业务、YouTube等等。这些都是不断增长的业务重点，我们需要确保自身有足够的资金能力支撑这些业务发展机遇。\n这也就引出了你的第二个问题，我们相信增加各项业务的资本支出能够为我们带来更高的收入机会。我们对变现机会非常关注，这也是支撑谷歌服务、谷歌云业务等的关键基础。另外，桑达尔之前也指出，我们对公司的效率也非常关注，会尽可能地优化流程、提升效率，确保软件、硬件、计算能力等匹配得上公司的快速发展。\n　　Evercore ISI分析师Jane Lee：我的第一个问题还是有关谷歌的搜索业务。谷歌之前也推出了人工智能聊天机器人，在这样的大背景下，管理层认为人工智能技术在搜索业务中的应用能否帮助搜索业务实现搜索量的大幅变化？或者说人工智能技术的应用能否带来创造性的搜索功能变化？能否请管理层与我们分享您在这方面的看法以及对未来的期待？\n　　我的第二个问题有关YouTube与云业务。目前谷歌的YouTube业务与云业务运行率都达到千亿级别。管理层对这两项业务的前景有何看法？未来云业务需求是否会出现拐点？生成式人工智能技术会为业务带来哪些巨变？能否请管理层与我们具体分享一下。\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：关于你的第一个问题。之前我曾与大家分享过相关看法，这里我再明确一次。\n　　在我们看来，现在正是搜索业务增长的利好时期。生成式人工智能技术的应用能让我们从纵深上拓展产品。大家要知道，搜索是一种非常独特的体验，用户选择搜索，是因为他们想要获取答案、想要探索更多、想要从网络上获取新的知识与观点、想要从深度与广度两方面了解他们在查询的内容。我们需要确保技术的创新跟得上用户需求，这也是一直以来我们所做的工作。目前来看，我对我们的进展非常满意，特别是我对当前公司的创新很自豪。\n　　总的来说，我认为现在是搜索业务增长的利好时期。\n　　露丝·波拉特：我同意桑达尔在简报中提到的，目前我们在这些业务中观察到强劲的业绩与增长势头。随着时间的推移，我们将继续发展业务、扩大业务规模。上季度的财报会议其实我们也提到了，我们为公司团队工作所取得的进展而感到满意。他们创造很多机遇，为用户、客户、广告商提供了多重服务，多年来也帮助公司拓宽了业务规模。\n　　富国银行分析师Ken Gawrelski：我的第一个问题有关GCP。我看到谷歌的GCP业务本季度增速良好。如果GCP想要实现加速增长、获取更大市场份额，管理层认为目前GCP面临着哪些机遇？又有哪些因素限制着GCP发展？未来GCP会更侧重销售，还是产品与解决方案？或者说二者兼而有之？另外，对于GCP业务，管理层是否计划与外部公司合作？还是说GCP业务会完全属于谷歌内部生态系统？\n　　我的第二个问题有关YouTube的体育赛事转播授权。对于未来YouTube体育赛事转播授权，管理层有哪些规划或者说看法？我们知道接下来几年可能会有更多大型赛事的转播版权流入市场。能否请管理层谈一谈您对这项业务的核心理念？比如NFL职业橄榄球大联盟、全美职业橄榄球大联盟“周日门票”等等。\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：云业务方面。人工智能技术的引入绝对会为业务带来拐点。\n　　人工智能技术带来的业务转型促使各方都在思考如何参与进来。举例来说，考虑到谷歌人工智能模型的深度与广度，人们希望vertexAI（谷歌推出的托管式机器学习平台）能帮助他们提升效率，或者通过Google Workspace提高生产力。人工智能技术确实为我们带来了非常多的机遇。\n　　至于说是内部工作还是会寻求外部合作，我认为二者兼而有之。一部分工作会在谷歌内部进行，我们也不拒绝与外部伙伴进行合作。大家要知道，挑战一直存在，用户迁移上云是需要成本的。我们需要解决的挑战在于，如何让用户迁移上云的过程更容易、更顺利？对此我们会进行持续投资，以便为用户带去更多便利。\n　　菲利普·辛德勒：关于体育赛事转播权的问题。谷歌与全美乃至全球许多非常受欢迎的体育联盟、球队、运动员、广播公司等都建立了长期且重要的合作伙伴关系，这些合作伙伴关系加之YouTube上庞大的体育迷基数，能够带来大量的订阅数与产品投资。但目前我没有更多新内容与大家分享。当然，一直以来我们都在寻找如何为用户、广告商、视频创作者创造更高价值的机会。\n　　（持续更新中。。。）\n \n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你>>\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘明亮","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299353799503944,"gmtCreate":1714109627952,"gmtModify":1714109629591,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299353799503944","repostId":"2430292404","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2430292404","pubTimestamp":1714102241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2430292404?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-26 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"同样“豪赌”AI，为何Meta大跌，但微软、谷歌大涨？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2430292404","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"AI投资已经开始为谷歌和微软带来巨大的效益，但对Meta业绩而言更像是一个沉重的包袱，AI变现之路任重道远。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>AI投资已经开始为谷歌和微软带来巨大的效益，但对Meta业绩而言更像是一个沉重的包袱，AI变现之路任重道远。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI无疑已成为科技巨头们新一轮战略布局的关键。然而，一季度财报证明，虽然它们都在AI领域疯狂烧钱，但当下对于公司业绩的影响完全不同。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度业绩同样强劲，谷歌母公司Alphabet和微软在盘后交易中股价大涨，前者周四美股盘后一度涨超15%至历史新高，而Facebook母公司Meta的股价则遭到重创，隔夜跌幅超过10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09565eb8f5081f8629f67f54b57705a3\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/396d1a1fe0ec1c414b34909291276e21\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"832\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f18d31239c1eb8eee7141a1559157f\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>造成这种差异的关键在于，现阶段，<strong>AI投资已经开始为谷歌和微软带来巨大的效益，但对Meta业绩而言更像是一个沉重的包袱，AI变现之路任重道远。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在刚刚结束的电话会上，谷歌和微软双双确认了AI对业绩的积极作用。</p><h2 id=\"id_2987088464\">AI推动谷歌云收入同比大增28%，谷歌称将努力控制成本增长</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示，谷歌母公司Alphabet一季度总营收805.4亿美元，同比增长15%创2022年初以来最快增速，并高于市场预期的790.4亿美元。调整后每股收益1.89美元，远超预期的1.53美元，较上年同期的1.17美元同比激增61.5%。净利润同比跃升57%至236.6亿美元，高于预期的189.5亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一季度谷歌云收入达到96亿美元，同比增长28%，</strong>首席财务官Ruth Porat表示这得益于“AI带来的日益增长的贡献”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>尽管AI的支出巨大，但Porat表示谷歌仍在控制这些成本。</strong>她说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">展望未来，我们仍将专注于努力放慢支出增长步伐，为技术基础设施投资水平的提高以及相关折旧和费用的增加腾出空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于资本支出，我们本季度的资本支出为120亿美元，这主要是投资于技术基础设施，其中以服务器为最大支出，其次是数据中心。近几个季度资本支出同比大幅增长，反映了我们对AI在整个业务中提供的机遇充满信心。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，未来评估谷歌在AI领域的投入和支出会变得更加困难，因为谷歌进行了组织架构调整，从二季度开始，原本隶属于谷歌服务部门的AI模型开发团队将迁移到DeepMind，后者直属于Alphabet母公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也就是说，从二季度开始，AI的相关会计处理将从谷歌转移到Alphabet总部层面。这将增加评估谷歌在AI领域投入产出的难度，因为相关费用将纳入Alphabet整体，而非仅限于谷歌单位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当然，投资者对于谷歌的热情还出于股东大礼包：700亿回购计划+历史首次分红。</p><h2 id=\"id_1841074911\">AI驱动微软业绩全面超预期，巨大支出不足为惧？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在AI的驱动下，微软当季财报关键指标和各项业务全面超预期，其中整体微软云收入同比增23%至351亿美元，智能云收入增21%至267亿美元，Azure收入逐季加速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得一提的是，Azure和其他云服务的收入增长了31%，高于市场预期的增长28.6%，以及去年三季度的增速29%和去年四季度的增速30%，<strong>代表AI确实在推动云收入加速增长。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软执行副总裁兼首席财务官Amy Hood告诉投资者：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们预计未来几年资本支出将增加，以支持云产品的增长以及我们在AI基础设施和培训方面的投资。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在微软的收益电话会议上，摩根士丹利分析师Keith Weiss提出有关微软在AI方面投资的更多细节问题，并指出微软的资本支出同比将增加逾50%，达到500亿美元，同时有关于斥资1000亿美元打造AI超级计算机的传闻，他表达了对AI巨大投入的担忧：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">显然，（AI）投资已近超过了收益贡献，但我希望你们能阐述管理团队如何量化这些投资所依据的潜在机遇，因为投资规模已经变得非常大。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首席执行官Satya Nadella回应说，在训练方面，微软希望“能够投入所需资本来基本上训练这些大型基础模型，并在这一领域保持领先地位”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Hood补充说，<strong>最重要的是要考虑这种大规模支出超越季度影响，而要思考如何把握AI影响每个业务流程的机会。</strong></p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">机会在于我们增加的价值，我期待能继续实现这一点。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_4099506774\">AI效益还未完全显现，Meta加速“烧钱”步伐？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相较于谷歌和微软，Meta一季度业绩表现并不差，营收和利润均高于预期，核心广告收入增长提速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其核心广告业务的收入为356.4亿美元，同比增长26.8%，在总营收中的占比小幅提升至约98%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了AI的催化作用外，<strong>电子商务和游戏领域的需求火爆是最大的功臣</strong>，为Meta广告业务的高歌猛进狠狠添了一把柴火。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，<strong>“效率年”的积极影响还在延续。</strong>去年在宏观经济形势严峻的背景下，Meta大刀阔斧裁员、削减成本，并将2023年称为“效率年”。这一计划下，Meta全年财务表现得到大幅提振。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但万万没想到，<strong>开年一季度Meta反手就大幅上调了今年的开支预算，这势必对公司财务表现造成巨大拖累。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta在一季度财报中将今年的资本支出预期从300亿至370亿美元上调至350亿到400亿美元，称因加快基础设施投资以支持AI路线图。Meta还预计明年的资本支出会继续增加。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在随后召开的一季度电话会上，Meta首席执行官扎克伯格表示，他认为Meta“应该在未来几年大幅增加投资，以构建更先进的模型和世界上规模最大的AI服务”。他补充称，“在我们从这些新产品中获得大量收入之前”，这些支出必须“有意义地增长”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最让投资者感到害怕的是，扎克伯格表示，<strong>AI变现需要的时间可能有点长</strong>：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>构建领先的AI也将是一个比我们添加到应用程序中的其他体验更为庞大的任务，这可能需要几年时间。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> 扎克伯格表态后，Meta周三盘后跌幅一度扩大至近20%，周四继续大跌，收盘时跌幅超过10%。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n同样“豪赌”AI，为何Meta大跌，但微软、谷歌大涨？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-26 11:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713689><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AI投资已经开始为谷歌和微软带来巨大的效益，但对Meta业绩而言更像是一个沉重的包袱，AI变现之路任重道远。AI无疑已成为科技巨头们新一轮战略布局的关键。然而，一季度财报证明，虽然它们都在AI领域疯狂烧钱，但当下对于公司业绩的影响完全不同。一季度业绩同样强劲，谷歌母公司Alphabet和微软在盘后交易中股价大涨，前者周四美股盘后一度涨超15%至历史新高，而Facebook母公司Meta的股价则遭到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713689\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d34e64d65c7f923e7e68d778e7283c","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713689","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2430292404","content_text":"AI投资已经开始为谷歌和微软带来巨大的效益，但对Meta业绩而言更像是一个沉重的包袱，AI变现之路任重道远。AI无疑已成为科技巨头们新一轮战略布局的关键。然而，一季度财报证明，虽然它们都在AI领域疯狂烧钱，但当下对于公司业绩的影响完全不同。一季度业绩同样强劲，谷歌母公司Alphabet和微软在盘后交易中股价大涨，前者周四美股盘后一度涨超15%至历史新高，而Facebook母公司Meta的股价则遭到重创，隔夜跌幅超过10%。造成这种差异的关键在于，现阶段，AI投资已经开始为谷歌和微软带来巨大的效益，但对Meta业绩而言更像是一个沉重的包袱，AI变现之路任重道远。在刚刚结束的电话会上，谷歌和微软双双确认了AI对业绩的积极作用。AI推动谷歌云收入同比大增28%，谷歌称将努力控制成本增长财报显示，谷歌母公司Alphabet一季度总营收805.4亿美元，同比增长15%创2022年初以来最快增速，并高于市场预期的790.4亿美元。调整后每股收益1.89美元，远超预期的1.53美元，较上年同期的1.17美元同比激增61.5%。净利润同比跃升57%至236.6亿美元，高于预期的189.5亿美元。一季度谷歌云收入达到96亿美元，同比增长28%，首席财务官Ruth Porat表示这得益于“AI带来的日益增长的贡献”。尽管AI的支出巨大，但Porat表示谷歌仍在控制这些成本。她说：展望未来，我们仍将专注于努力放慢支出增长步伐，为技术基础设施投资水平的提高以及相关折旧和费用的增加腾出空间。关于资本支出，我们本季度的资本支出为120亿美元，这主要是投资于技术基础设施，其中以服务器为最大支出，其次是数据中心。近几个季度资本支出同比大幅增长，反映了我们对AI在整个业务中提供的机遇充满信心。然而，未来评估谷歌在AI领域的投入和支出会变得更加困难，因为谷歌进行了组织架构调整，从二季度开始，原本隶属于谷歌服务部门的AI模型开发团队将迁移到DeepMind，后者直属于Alphabet母公司。也就是说，从二季度开始，AI的相关会计处理将从谷歌转移到Alphabet总部层面。这将增加评估谷歌在AI领域投入产出的难度，因为相关费用将纳入Alphabet整体，而非仅限于谷歌单位。当然，投资者对于谷歌的热情还出于股东大礼包：700亿回购计划+历史首次分红。AI驱动微软业绩全面超预期，巨大支出不足为惧？在AI的驱动下，微软当季财报关键指标和各项业务全面超预期，其中整体微软云收入同比增23%至351亿美元，智能云收入增21%至267亿美元，Azure收入逐季加速增长。值得一提的是，Azure和其他云服务的收入增长了31%，高于市场预期的增长28.6%，以及去年三季度的增速29%和去年四季度的增速30%，代表AI确实在推动云收入加速增长。微软执行副总裁兼首席财务官Amy Hood告诉投资者：我们预计未来几年资本支出将增加，以支持云产品的增长以及我们在AI基础设施和培训方面的投资。在微软的收益电话会议上，摩根士丹利分析师Keith Weiss提出有关微软在AI方面投资的更多细节问题，并指出微软的资本支出同比将增加逾50%，达到500亿美元，同时有关于斥资1000亿美元打造AI超级计算机的传闻，他表达了对AI巨大投入的担忧：显然，（AI）投资已近超过了收益贡献，但我希望你们能阐述管理团队如何量化这些投资所依据的潜在机遇，因为投资规模已经变得非常大。首席执行官Satya Nadella回应说，在训练方面，微软希望“能够投入所需资本来基本上训练这些大型基础模型，并在这一领域保持领先地位”。Hood补充说，最重要的是要考虑这种大规模支出超越季度影响，而要思考如何把握AI影响每个业务流程的机会。机会在于我们增加的价值，我期待能继续实现这一点。AI效益还未完全显现，Meta加速“烧钱”步伐？相较于谷歌和微软，Meta一季度业绩表现并不差，营收和利润均高于预期，核心广告收入增长提速。其核心广告业务的收入为356.4亿美元，同比增长26.8%，在总营收中的占比小幅提升至约98%。除了AI的催化作用外，电子商务和游戏领域的需求火爆是最大的功臣，为Meta广告业务的高歌猛进狠狠添了一把柴火。另外，“效率年”的积极影响还在延续。去年在宏观经济形势严峻的背景下，Meta大刀阔斧裁员、削减成本，并将2023年称为“效率年”。这一计划下，Meta全年财务表现得到大幅提振。但万万没想到，开年一季度Meta反手就大幅上调了今年的开支预算，这势必对公司财务表现造成巨大拖累。Meta在一季度财报中将今年的资本支出预期从300亿至370亿美元上调至350亿到400亿美元，称因加快基础设施投资以支持AI路线图。Meta还预计明年的资本支出会继续增加。在随后召开的一季度电话会上，Meta首席执行官扎克伯格表示，他认为Meta“应该在未来几年大幅增加投资，以构建更先进的模型和世界上规模最大的AI服务”。他补充称，“在我们从这些新产品中获得大量收入之前”，这些支出必须“有意义地增长”。最让投资者感到害怕的是，扎克伯格表示，AI变现需要的时间可能有点长：构建领先的AI也将是一个比我们添加到应用程序中的其他体验更为庞大的任务，这可能需要几年时间。 扎克伯格表态后，Meta周三盘后跌幅一度扩大至近20%，周四继续大跌，收盘时跌幅超过10%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":82,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299351402631480,"gmtCreate":1714109175268,"gmtModify":1714109177230,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"公司预言“科技行业正处于 Al 带来的巨大平台转变之中。”","listText":"公司预言“科技行业正处于 Al 带来的巨大平台转变之中。”","text":"公司预言“科技行业正处于 Al 带来的巨大平台转变之中。”","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299351402631480","repostId":"2430541642","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2430541642","pubTimestamp":1714083293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2430541642?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-26 06:14","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"谷歌史上首次分红，Q1营收、广告、云收入均提速，盘后涨15%至新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2430541642","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"谷歌一季度收入增长两年最快，利润激增六成，押注AI的资本支出120亿美元。云业务增长重新提速至去年初的28%高位，其运营利润猛翻四倍，广告收入稳健改善。公司还在史上首次发放季度股息，将额外回购至多70","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>谷歌一季度收入增长两年最快，利润激增六成，押注AI的资本支出120亿美元。云业务增长重新提速至去年初的28%高位，其运营利润猛翻四倍，广告收入稳健改善。公司还在史上首次发放季度股息，将额外回购至多700亿美元股票。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/203f9e9ff03a3a3093d834d88aed3439\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4月25日周四美股盘后，同样大举进军AI的全球数字广告和搜索巨头、谷歌母公司Alphabet发布了2024年一季度财报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于广告和云收入均提速增长，各项指标全面超预期，且史上首次发放季度股息，Alphabet股价盘后涨超15%至历史新高，若保持到周五开盘将令市值激增约3000亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6767797491441c2e7adfb5e23709f8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"958\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周四Alphabet A类股收跌约2%，止步三日连涨，但今年累涨超11%，显著跑赢大盘涨幅，过去12个月累涨50%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于看好核心搜索业务、YouTube广告和云领域的持续强势，华尔街对Alphabet的共识评级是“强烈买入”，其中有30位分析师建议“买入”，7人评级“持有”，没有人推荐“卖出”，平均目标价为167.51美元，代表还有9%的潜在涨幅空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_1746928228\" style=\"text-align: start;\">谷歌Q1收入增长提速至两年最快，利润同比激增六成，押注AI的资本支出120亿美元</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示，谷歌母公司一季度总营收805.4亿美元，同比增长15%创2022年初以来最快增速，并高于市场预期的790.4亿美元。调整后每股收益1.89美元，远超预期的1.53美元，较上年同期的1.17美元同比激增61.5%。净利润同比跃升57%至236.6亿美元，高于预期的189.5亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与去年四季度的营收863.1亿美元、EPS每股收益1.64美元、净利润206.9亿美元相比，谷歌母公司的一季度收入环比下滑，这符合市场预期，但利润意外得到提振，受益于AI带来的利好。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">整体来说，谷歌收入的同比指标正在加速增长，去年三季度的总营收在一年多来首次恢复两位数同比增幅，此前曾连续四个季度的增幅回落至个位数百分比，主要由于广告商的支出因通胀飙升和美联储激进加息而走弱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街普遍认为，将生成式AI集成到产品中产生的人工智能需求不断增长，可能会在未来几个季度持续提振其云业务收入。同时，搜索和YouTube主导的广告收入也在随着行业趋势不断改善。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e4efe2299065098d955dc20f9db498\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当季谷歌支付给合作伙伴的流量获取成本（TAC）为129.5亿美元，超过市场预期的127.4亿美元，这一指标对利润产生影响。不过营业利润率从上年同期的25%扩张至32%，高于预期的28.6%。<strong>在备受关注的AI投资方面，谷歌当季的资本支出为120亿美元，较预期多出17亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司称，研究人员们针对大语言模型Gemini取得迅猛进展，资本开支增加，体现出在基建的投资。 谷歌正开始将AI概览部署到主要的搜索页面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首席执行官皮查伊在声明中称，Alphabet在人工智能研究和基础设施方面的领先地位以及全球产品足迹，令该公司在下一波人工智能创新浪潮中处于有利地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其财报还称：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“正如4月18日宣布的那样，我们正在整合Google Research和Google DeepMind中专注于构建人工智能模型的团队，以进一步加快在AI领域的进展。之前隶属于Google Research的Google Services部门AI模型开发团队将作为Google DeepMind的一部分纳入Alphabet级别的活动中，预计将于2024年第二季度开始。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_89293373\" style=\"text-align: start;\">云业务增长重新提速至去年初的28%左右高位，其运营利润猛翻四倍</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分业务来看，<strong>市场最关心、被视为谷歌下一个增长引擎的云业务</strong>一季度收入同比增长28.4%至95.7亿美元，高于分析师预期的93.7亿美元。去年四季度曾增长25.7%至91.9亿美元，连续多个季度的增幅较整体营收增长翻倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这也代表谷歌云收入的同比增速重新提速，令华尔街欣喜，有效推动盘后股价飙升</strong>。2022年三季度的云收入曾同比增长37.6%，当年四季度及2023年前三季度的增幅分别放缓至32%、28%、28%和22%，而从去年四季度起重新提速，有助于缓解分析师对其增长停滞的担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，<strong>谷歌云业务的运营利润从上年同期的1.9亿美元翻了四倍多至9亿美元，</strong>持续走在扭亏为盈的正轨之上，显示多年投资终于产生可观回报。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb84cb769cc2f4af65795cfee4b0c05\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前有分析称，谷歌云业务是该公司的一个关键投资领域，随着生成式人工智能的出现，这项业务变得更加重要，因为越来越多的公司正在转向公共云来运行繁重的工作负载。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在云计算市场份额排名第三的谷歌仍在努力追赶竞争对手亚马逊和微软。谷歌云包括为企业客户提供的基础架构和数据分析平台（GCP，即谷歌云平台），以及生产力和协作工具（Google Workspace），占总营收的比重接近12%，仍与云领域的领头羊微软差距不小。</p><h2 id=\"id_1657382943\" style=\"text-align: start;\">广告收入稳健改善且全面超预期，创新业务烧钱规模同比收窄</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>核心广告业务也是华尔街密切关注的谷歌主要收入驱动力，</strong>一季度的广告收入同比增长13%至616.6亿美元，高于预期的601.8亿美元，代表从2023年开始加速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，来自YouTube视频平台的广告收入同比增近21%至80.9亿美元，高于预期的77.2亿美元。谷歌搜索及其他的广告收入同比增超14%至461.56亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这都标志着其广告收入的稳健改善，由于2022年经济疲软和来自TikTok的竞争加剧，谷歌核心广告业务曾有所减弱，但在2022年四季度公布该业务出现负增长以来，广告收入一直在改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前分析指出，生成式人工智能可以为简单的文本查询提供更有创意、更全面的答案，如果人们因此改变了在线查找信息的方式，可能会对谷歌核心的搜索和广告业务产生重大影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> “其他押注”（Other Bets）曾经是谷歌的科技创新部门，定位前瞻性的产品开发与风险投资，包括自动驾驶初创公司Waymo、智能医疗Verily、风投基金Google Capital与Google Venture等。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这项业务在一季度收入同比增近72%至4.95亿美元，高于预期的3.72亿美元，运营亏损为10.2亿美元，较上年同期的亏损逾12亿美元有所收窄，也好于市场预期的亏损11亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，谷歌服务的季度收入同比增长13.6%至704亿美元，跑赢市场预期的690亿美元，运营利润同比增超28%至接近279亿美元，显著高于市场预期的243亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab55ebe5bdee52fe1fbf4860b51e629\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1834691605\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Alphabet公司史上首次发放季度股息，额外回购至多700亿美元股票</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">推动谷歌盘后股价大涨至新高的另一个动因，是谷歌决定首次发放季度股息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Alphabet表示，董事会已批准于6月17日向截至6月10日登记在册的股东支付每股20美分的现金股息，而且“打算在未来都持续支付季度现金股息”。公司还授权额外回购700亿美元股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至一季度末，Alphabet的现金、等价物和有价证券为1080亿美元，略低于去年同期的1109亿美元。全球员工数同比减少5.1%或9800人至约18.1万人。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有分析称，也许员工数才是本次财报最重要的数字，“谷歌也（追随Meta）开启了效率之年，员工人数减少近1万人，营业利润率则从25%蹿升至32%。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9fddeaf6ea0e7731a2b7730fbc4e45b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"410\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2958424958\" style=\"text-align: start;\">最关注什么？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">人工智能前景仍是Alphabet本次财报季的关键焦点，特别是能否推动谷歌云收入的加速增长。分析师将重点关注人工智能计划和Gemini AI模型的最新进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CFRA预测2024全年谷歌云的收入增速都会保持在至少25%，有助于缓解对增长停滞的担忧。美国银行称，搜索收入强劲将有助于提振市场对AI情绪的恶化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也有分析师关注谷歌的利润率，“因为该公司未能像其他大型科技巨头那样积极削减成本”。谷歌还推出了专为数据中心定制的自研人工智能芯片Axion，这会增加AI开发支出。</p><h2 id=\"id_1375162\" style=\"text-align: start;\">华尔街怎么看？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2024年巴黎奥运会和美国总统大选都会令广告环境改善，被普遍视为支撑谷歌财报的关键力量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛称，行业趋势表明今年搜索业务的收入很强劲，YouTube收入也有所复苏。Jefferies在今年下半年继续看涨谷歌，“因为看到核心广告业务势头的改善和2025年AI助推的可见度提高”。CFRA称，云、搜索、YouTube和谷歌的其他业务“存在与人工智能货币化相关的增量机会”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，<strong>AI领域的长期竞争加剧，甚至存在颠覆谷歌核心搜索业务的风险，以及欧美监管收紧，也带来一定挑战</strong>。Bernstein称，Alphabet的任何失误都可能“敲响人工智能的警钟”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对该股评级“持有”的投行Monness Crespi Hardt称，相信Alphabet处于能够利用数字广告趋势资本化，建立持久的云业务，并利用人工智能进行创新的有利位置：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“然而，监管环境并不乐观，竞争风险也在加剧，谷歌内部的执行力参差不齐，再加上宏观经济可能陷入泥潭，也许最黑暗的日子还在前面。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Jefferies将部分不确定性归因于对新的股票回购授权和新任CFO接替Ruth Porat的猜测，后者去年称将辞任CFO并转而担任首席投资官兼总裁。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周谷歌宣布对财务部门进行重组，以便将更多资源投入人工智能领域，并将人工智能团队整合至Google DeepMind旗下，公司预言“科技行业正处于 Al 带来的巨大平台转变之中。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">KeyBanc预计，随着谷歌在AI时代更加关注产品速度和部门重组，今年第二季度可能将持续裁员，但这表明营业利润会进一步上升：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“随着Alphabet继续投资人工智能基础设施，今年的资本支出可能达到420亿美元，明年进一步增至460亿美元。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有分析称，Alphabet 在今年伊始就遭遇了一些人工智能挫折，图像生成器的问题令公司将该工具从市场上撤回。谷歌还解雇了数十名员工，后者参与了一系列针对劳动条件，以及为以色列政府和军方提供云计算与AI服务的抗议活动：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“此外，美国司法部针对谷歌搜索分发业务的诉讼，以及另一起针对其在线广告业务的诉讼也引发关注，更不用说欧洲旨在创造更具竞争力数字环境的立法，包括《数字市场法案》和即将出台的《欧盟人工智能法案》。”</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谷歌史上首次分红，Q1营收、广告、云收入均提速，盘后涨15%至新高</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌史上首次分红，Q1营收、广告、云收入均提速，盘后涨15%至新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-26 06:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713657><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>谷歌一季度收入增长两年最快，利润激增六成，押注AI的资本支出120亿美元。云业务增长重新提速至去年初的28%高位，其运营利润猛翻四倍，广告收入稳健改善。公司还在史上首次发放季度股息，将额外回购至多700亿美元股票。4月25日周四美股盘后，同样大举进军AI的全球数字广告和搜索巨头、谷歌母公司Alphabet发布了2024年一季度财报。由于广告和云收入均提速增长，各项指标全面超预期，且史上首次发放季度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713657\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f348812ea39b45cad3d64af127992eb9","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4525":"远程办公概念","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC 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SGD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713657","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"2430541642","content_text":"谷歌一季度收入增长两年最快，利润激增六成，押注AI的资本支出120亿美元。云业务增长重新提速至去年初的28%高位，其运营利润猛翻四倍，广告收入稳健改善。公司还在史上首次发放季度股息，将额外回购至多700亿美元股票。4月25日周四美股盘后，同样大举进军AI的全球数字广告和搜索巨头、谷歌母公司Alphabet发布了2024年一季度财报。由于广告和云收入均提速增长，各项指标全面超预期，且史上首次发放季度股息，Alphabet股价盘后涨超15%至历史新高，若保持到周五开盘将令市值激增约3000亿美元。周四Alphabet A类股收跌约2%，止步三日连涨，但今年累涨超11%，显著跑赢大盘涨幅，过去12个月累涨50%。由于看好核心搜索业务、YouTube广告和云领域的持续强势，华尔街对Alphabet的共识评级是“强烈买入”，其中有30位分析师建议“买入”，7人评级“持有”，没有人推荐“卖出”，平均目标价为167.51美元，代表还有9%的潜在涨幅空间。谷歌Q1收入增长提速至两年最快，利润同比激增六成，押注AI的资本支出120亿美元财报显示，谷歌母公司一季度总营收805.4亿美元，同比增长15%创2022年初以来最快增速，并高于市场预期的790.4亿美元。调整后每股收益1.89美元，远超预期的1.53美元，较上年同期的1.17美元同比激增61.5%。净利润同比跃升57%至236.6亿美元，高于预期的189.5亿美元。与去年四季度的营收863.1亿美元、EPS每股收益1.64美元、净利润206.9亿美元相比，谷歌母公司的一季度收入环比下滑，这符合市场预期，但利润意外得到提振，受益于AI带来的利好。整体来说，谷歌收入的同比指标正在加速增长，去年三季度的总营收在一年多来首次恢复两位数同比增幅，此前曾连续四个季度的增幅回落至个位数百分比，主要由于广告商的支出因通胀飙升和美联储激进加息而走弱。华尔街普遍认为，将生成式AI集成到产品中产生的人工智能需求不断增长，可能会在未来几个季度持续提振其云业务收入。同时，搜索和YouTube主导的广告收入也在随着行业趋势不断改善。当季谷歌支付给合作伙伴的流量获取成本（TAC）为129.5亿美元，超过市场预期的127.4亿美元，这一指标对利润产生影响。不过营业利润率从上年同期的25%扩张至32%，高于预期的28.6%。在备受关注的AI投资方面，谷歌当季的资本支出为120亿美元，较预期多出17亿美元。公司称，研究人员们针对大语言模型Gemini取得迅猛进展，资本开支增加，体现出在基建的投资。 谷歌正开始将AI概览部署到主要的搜索页面。首席执行官皮查伊在声明中称，Alphabet在人工智能研究和基础设施方面的领先地位以及全球产品足迹，令该公司在下一波人工智能创新浪潮中处于有利地位。其财报还称：“正如4月18日宣布的那样，我们正在整合Google Research和Google DeepMind中专注于构建人工智能模型的团队，以进一步加快在AI领域的进展。之前隶属于Google Research的Google Services部门AI模型开发团队将作为Google DeepMind的一部分纳入Alphabet级别的活动中，预计将于2024年第二季度开始。”云业务增长重新提速至去年初的28%左右高位，其运营利润猛翻四倍分业务来看，市场最关心、被视为谷歌下一个增长引擎的云业务一季度收入同比增长28.4%至95.7亿美元，高于分析师预期的93.7亿美元。去年四季度曾增长25.7%至91.9亿美元，连续多个季度的增幅较整体营收增长翻倍。这也代表谷歌云收入的同比增速重新提速，令华尔街欣喜，有效推动盘后股价飙升。2022年三季度的云收入曾同比增长37.6%，当年四季度及2023年前三季度的增幅分别放缓至32%、28%、28%和22%，而从去年四季度起重新提速，有助于缓解分析师对其增长停滞的担忧。同时，谷歌云业务的运营利润从上年同期的1.9亿美元翻了四倍多至9亿美元，持续走在扭亏为盈的正轨之上，显示多年投资终于产生可观回报。此前有分析称，谷歌云业务是该公司的一个关键投资领域，随着生成式人工智能的出现，这项业务变得更加重要，因为越来越多的公司正在转向公共云来运行繁重的工作负载。在云计算市场份额排名第三的谷歌仍在努力追赶竞争对手亚马逊和微软。谷歌云包括为企业客户提供的基础架构和数据分析平台（GCP，即谷歌云平台），以及生产力和协作工具（Google Workspace），占总营收的比重接近12%，仍与云领域的领头羊微软差距不小。广告收入稳健改善且全面超预期，创新业务烧钱规模同比收窄核心广告业务也是华尔街密切关注的谷歌主要收入驱动力，一季度的广告收入同比增长13%至616.6亿美元，高于预期的601.8亿美元，代表从2023年开始加速增长。其中，来自YouTube视频平台的广告收入同比增近21%至80.9亿美元，高于预期的77.2亿美元。谷歌搜索及其他的广告收入同比增超14%至461.56亿美元。这都标志着其广告收入的稳健改善，由于2022年经济疲软和来自TikTok的竞争加剧，谷歌核心广告业务曾有所减弱，但在2022年四季度公布该业务出现负增长以来，广告收入一直在改善。此前分析指出，生成式人工智能可以为简单的文本查询提供更有创意、更全面的答案，如果人们因此改变了在线查找信息的方式，可能会对谷歌核心的搜索和广告业务产生重大影响。 “其他押注”（Other Bets）曾经是谷歌的科技创新部门，定位前瞻性的产品开发与风险投资，包括自动驾驶初创公司Waymo、智能医疗Verily、风投基金Google Capital与Google Venture等。这项业务在一季度收入同比增近72%至4.95亿美元，高于预期的3.72亿美元，运营亏损为10.2亿美元，较上年同期的亏损逾12亿美元有所收窄，也好于市场预期的亏损11亿美元。此外，谷歌服务的季度收入同比增长13.6%至704亿美元，跑赢市场预期的690亿美元，运营利润同比增超28%至接近279亿美元，显著高于市场预期的243亿美元。Alphabet公司史上首次发放季度股息，额外回购至多700亿美元股票推动谷歌盘后股价大涨至新高的另一个动因，是谷歌决定首次发放季度股息。Alphabet表示，董事会已批准于6月17日向截至6月10日登记在册的股东支付每股20美分的现金股息，而且“打算在未来都持续支付季度现金股息”。公司还授权额外回购700亿美元股票。截至一季度末，Alphabet的现金、等价物和有价证券为1080亿美元，略低于去年同期的1109亿美元。全球员工数同比减少5.1%或9800人至约18.1万人。有分析称，也许员工数才是本次财报最重要的数字，“谷歌也（追随Meta）开启了效率之年，员工人数减少近1万人，营业利润率则从25%蹿升至32%。”最关注什么？人工智能前景仍是Alphabet本次财报季的关键焦点，特别是能否推动谷歌云收入的加速增长。分析师将重点关注人工智能计划和Gemini AI模型的最新进展。CFRA预测2024全年谷歌云的收入增速都会保持在至少25%，有助于缓解对增长停滞的担忧。美国银行称，搜索收入强劲将有助于提振市场对AI情绪的恶化。也有分析师关注谷歌的利润率，“因为该公司未能像其他大型科技巨头那样积极削减成本”。谷歌还推出了专为数据中心定制的自研人工智能芯片Axion，这会增加AI开发支出。华尔街怎么看？2024年巴黎奥运会和美国总统大选都会令广告环境改善，被普遍视为支撑谷歌财报的关键力量。高盛称，行业趋势表明今年搜索业务的收入很强劲，YouTube收入也有所复苏。Jefferies在今年下半年继续看涨谷歌，“因为看到核心广告业务势头的改善和2025年AI助推的可见度提高”。CFRA称，云、搜索、YouTube和谷歌的其他业务“存在与人工智能货币化相关的增量机会”。不过，AI领域的长期竞争加剧，甚至存在颠覆谷歌核心搜索业务的风险，以及欧美监管收紧，也带来一定挑战。Bernstein称，Alphabet的任何失误都可能“敲响人工智能的警钟”。对该股评级“持有”的投行Monness Crespi Hardt称，相信Alphabet处于能够利用数字广告趋势资本化，建立持久的云业务，并利用人工智能进行创新的有利位置：“然而，监管环境并不乐观，竞争风险也在加剧，谷歌内部的执行力参差不齐，再加上宏观经济可能陷入泥潭，也许最黑暗的日子还在前面。”Jefferies将部分不确定性归因于对新的股票回购授权和新任CFO接替Ruth Porat的猜测，后者去年称将辞任CFO并转而担任首席投资官兼总裁。上周谷歌宣布对财务部门进行重组，以便将更多资源投入人工智能领域，并将人工智能团队整合至Google DeepMind旗下，公司预言“科技行业正处于 Al 带来的巨大平台转变之中。”KeyBanc预计，随着谷歌在AI时代更加关注产品速度和部门重组，今年第二季度可能将持续裁员，但这表明营业利润会进一步上升：“随着Alphabet继续投资人工智能基础设施，今年的资本支出可能达到420亿美元，明年进一步增至460亿美元。”有分析称，Alphabet 在今年伊始就遭遇了一些人工智能挫折，图像生成器的问题令公司将该工具从市场上撤回。谷歌还解雇了数十名员工，后者参与了一系列针对劳动条件，以及为以色列政府和军方提供云计算与AI服务的抗议活动：“此外，美国司法部针对谷歌搜索分发业务的诉讼，以及另一起针对其在线广告业务的诉讼也引发关注，更不用说欧洲旨在创造更具竞争力数字环境的立法，包括《数字市场法案》和即将出台的《欧盟人工智能法案》。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298033038467232,"gmtCreate":1713790707176,"gmtModify":1713790709146,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"回调就是买入的好机会","listText":"回调就是买入的好机会","text":"回调就是买入的好机会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298033038467232","repostId":"2429940807","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2429940807","pubTimestamp":1713787003,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2429940807?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-22 19:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大摩空头罕见为美股撑腰！科技巨头业绩将成“救世主”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2429940807","media":"智通财经","summary":"“五大科技巨头”业绩增速有望高达60%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>对于美国企业能否在今年实现强劲的盈利增速，华尔街大型商业银行的股票策略师们对此存在巨大分歧。华尔街知名空头、来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的首席股票策略师Michael Wilson预计，<strong>美国企业的整体每股收益增长趋势——即标普500指数成分公司的整体每股收益将有所改善，市场预期方面，“五大科技巨头”业绩增速有望高达60%，或将是带领美股走出近期泥潭的核心推动力;但是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>的股票策略师则认为，市场给予的收益预期可能过高，以至于不及预期的业绩可能导致标普500指数继续向下深度调整。</strong></p><p>摩根士丹利的Michael Wilson带领的股票策略团队表示，随着美国经济走强，预计2024年和2025年的美国企业利润增速将明显改善，<strong>这也是“大空头”Michael Wilson自2023年以来罕见对每股收益预期持乐观展望。</strong>关于美股盈利预期的最新展望，Wilson强调，在新订单数据的支持下，美国商业活动调查的回升数据“证实了未来盈利的持续增长趋势”。</p><p>华尔街分析师的普遍预期方面，分析师们预计美国企业预计将在2024年实现更加强劲的每股收益同比增速——继去年同比增速不足1%之后，今年有望实现同比大增约8%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad3ac6ae96ffc43dfe9dc41ec8d75d\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"529\"/></p><p><strong>美国企业预计将在2024年实现更加强劲的增速——分析师们预计，继去年增长不足1%之后，今年将增长8%</strong></p><p>Wilson是2023年美股最知名看跌者之一，但是他判断失准——2023年标普500指数大幅上涨24%迈入牛市，尽管今年以来标普500指数屡创新高，但是他今年以来对美股的态度未转向乐观，同时也非像2023年那样持悲观立场，而是更加平衡。</p><p>摩根大通的策略师们则认为，通胀加剧、美元走强以及最近地缘政治紧张局势加剧给美股前景蒙上浓厚的阴影。</p><p>摩根大通策略师Mislav Matejka领导的团队在一份报告中写道:“投资者们甚至预计，与第一季度的预期水平相比，标普500指数成分公司整体的第四季度每股收益将增长近20%。”“在我们看来，这个预期门槛太高了。”</p><p><strong>在本周<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>等科技巨头财报即将公布，或将决定标普500指数在5月中下旬<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>业绩公布的基本走势，因此在投资者们近期愈发关注美股业绩数据，然而，美国股市的反弹已被美债收益率近期的飙升所破坏。</strong>在第一季度屡创新高之后，标普500指数在4月份跌超5%，由于英伟达(NVDA.US)等AI相关科技股股价暴跌，仅仅上周标普500指数的跌幅高达3%，主要因美联储官员们纷纷暗示美联储准备在更长时间内维持较高利率，加之中东地区地缘政治紧张局势重创市场风险偏好。</p><p>Wilson和Matejka这两位华尔街知名策略师均表示，<strong>推动美国股市进一步上涨的压力将是企业盈利能力，而不是利率预期。</strong></p><p>然而，Matejka表示，市场仍然表现出一些“自满”情绪，因为市场仍然没有将“明年经济下滑的重大风险”纳入定价因素。这位策略师今年仍是对美国股市最为悲观的看跌策略师之一，相比之下Wilson对于美股后市偏向中性。</p><p><strong>“考虑到企业盈利增速这一点，我们认为谨慎乐观情绪仍有理由存在。</strong>” Wilson表示。不过，他预计大部分的盈利增长速度将在今年晚些时候实现。这位策略师表示，从短期角度来看，如果美债收益率，尤其是有“全球定价之锚”称号的10年期美债收益率保持在当前水平，标普500指数将面临至多5%的跌幅。</p><p>最新投资者调查显示：美企强劲盈利即将提振美股</p><p>美国银行的一项分析显示，自1929年以来，标普500指数平均每年会经历三次5%或以上的回调，尽管最近几个月美股基本在走高，但这种跌幅并不罕见。</p><p>历史表明，一年的强劲开局之后往往会出现大幅回落，之后股市通常会自我调整并继续走高。信托顾问服务公司Truist Advisor Services的一项研究显示，标普500指数在第一季度每上涨10%或以上，就会出现11%的平均最大跌幅。不过，自1950年以来，在11次此类事件中，该指数有10次当年最终收涨。</p><p>与此同时，<strong>最新的Markets Live Pulse调查显示，参与调查的个人与机构投资者们普遍预计，乐观的美国企业财报将把标普500指数(S&amp;P 500)从最近的困境中拉出来。</strong></p><p>随着本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，意味着美股财报季进入最高潮阶段，<strong>409名受访者中有近三分之二表示，他们预计强劲的每股收益增速将提振美国股市，并且这一比例达到自2022年10月开始调查这一问题以来的最高水平。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c964d76f8f5999629306d429da665d28\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"452\"/></p><p>尽管中东紧张局势不断升级，但地缘政治风险的上升似乎并不是主要担忧。一个原因可能是，从历史上看，股市在类似的压力事件发生后会保持坚挺。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>控股多资产策略师的一项分析显示，<strong>在过去25年里，在重大地缘政治事件发生后，美国股市平均有70%的时间出现上涨。</strong></p><p><strong>Bloomberg Intelligence策略师Gina Martin Adams以及 Wendy Soong在一份最新报告中表示，财报季迄今的早期业绩数据显示，企业每股收益出超出预期，为股票走势提供了坚实的支撑。</strong></p><p>“我对这个财报季相当乐观，预计不会有什么可怕的事情发生，” Premier Miton Investors首席投资官Neil Birrell接受调查时表示。汇丰美国和拉丁美洲股票策略主管Nicole Inui在调查中表示:“第一季度财报季可能会给美国股市带来不错的支撑效应，尤其是在过去一个月出现抛售的情况下。”</p><p>财富管理公司Baker Avenue Wealth Management首席策略师King Lip表示：“<strong>回调早该出现了。我认为目前这是一次普通的调整。”Lip已开始为客户增加股票敞口，并计划在股市进一步下跌时买入更多股票。不过，他认为标普500指数可能会从3月28日的高点至多下跌10%。</strong></p><p>大型科技巨头们的业绩将成美股“救世主”?</p><p>大型科技巨头们即将发布的财报，可以说为美国股市提供了一个“扭转市场局面”的重大机遇，同时也将告知全球投资者AI对于科技行业未来业绩增速的重要程度。此前标普500指数连续三周下跌，这是自去年9月以来最长的连续下跌。</p><p>华尔街知名投资机构Wedbush的分析师Dan Ives表示，大量实地调研使得该机构对企业AI支出非常有信心<strong>，Ives预计今年人工智能支出有望占到企业IT预算的大约10%，而2023年仅不到1%。</strong>Ives表示，科技公司的盈利环境看起来仍然强劲，尤其是考虑到各大企业对人工智能的狂热情绪，这在过去一年里推动了科技股的飙升。该策略师补充道，<strong>无比强劲的财报季可能是科技股的主要积极催化剂，并预测到2024年底，该行业可能会再飙升15%。</strong></p><p>尤其值得注意的是，本周将有大约178家标普500指数成分股公司公布业绩，这些公司市值占该指数总市值的40%以上。但最大的期望还是来自大型科技公司，美股“科技七巨头”中的特斯拉(TSLA.US)、Meta(META.US)、微软(MSFT.US)、谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL.US)都将在本周公布财报。</p><p>根据机构汇编的预期统计数据，“美股七大科技巨头”(英伟达、特斯拉、Meta、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、Alphabet)第一季度每股收益同比有望飙升38%。如果剔除这七家公司，标普500指数其余公司利润预计将下降3.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec01ae6dd540a0ad4903ff01dde5cb0c\" tg-width=\"754\" tg-height=\"589\"/></p><p>此外，<strong>从对于美股2024年涨势贡献最大的“五大科技巨头”盈利预期来看，FactSet预期数据显示这些公司今年第一季度的每股收益增速有望达到惊人的64.3%。其他495家公司的收益预计将下降6%。“五大科技巨头”指的是：英伟达、亚马逊、微软、Alphabet以及Meta，如果它们的强大业绩增速能够实现，且超出市场预期，有望引领美股不断向上突破历史新高。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩空头罕见为美股撑腰！科技巨头业绩将成“救世主”？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩空头罕见为美股撑腰！科技巨头业绩将成“救世主”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-22 19:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1106840.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>对于美国企业能否在今年实现强劲的盈利增速，华尔街大型商业银行的股票策略师们对此存在巨大分歧。华尔街知名空头、来自摩根士丹利的首席股票策略师Michael Wilson预计，美国企业的整体每股收益增长趋势——即标普500指数成分公司的整体每股收益将有所改善，市场预期方面，“五大科技巨头”业绩增速有望高达60%，或将是带领美股走出近期泥潭的核心推动力;但是摩根大通的股票策略师则认为，市场给予的收益预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1106840.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","META":"Meta Platforms","MSFT":"微软","NVDA":"英伟达","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1106840.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2429940807","content_text":"对于美国企业能否在今年实现强劲的盈利增速，华尔街大型商业银行的股票策略师们对此存在巨大分歧。华尔街知名空头、来自摩根士丹利的首席股票策略师Michael Wilson预计，美国企业的整体每股收益增长趋势——即标普500指数成分公司的整体每股收益将有所改善，市场预期方面，“五大科技巨头”业绩增速有望高达60%，或将是带领美股走出近期泥潭的核心推动力;但是摩根大通的股票策略师则认为，市场给予的收益预期可能过高，以至于不及预期的业绩可能导致标普500指数继续向下深度调整。摩根士丹利的Michael Wilson带领的股票策略团队表示，随着美国经济走强，预计2024年和2025年的美国企业利润增速将明显改善，这也是“大空头”Michael Wilson自2023年以来罕见对每股收益预期持乐观展望。关于美股盈利预期的最新展望，Wilson强调，在新订单数据的支持下，美国商业活动调查的回升数据“证实了未来盈利的持续增长趋势”。华尔街分析师的普遍预期方面，分析师们预计美国企业预计将在2024年实现更加强劲的每股收益同比增速——继去年同比增速不足1%之后，今年有望实现同比大增约8%。美国企业预计将在2024年实现更加强劲的增速——分析师们预计，继去年增长不足1%之后，今年将增长8%Wilson是2023年美股最知名看跌者之一，但是他判断失准——2023年标普500指数大幅上涨24%迈入牛市，尽管今年以来标普500指数屡创新高，但是他今年以来对美股的态度未转向乐观，同时也非像2023年那样持悲观立场，而是更加平衡。摩根大通的策略师们则认为，通胀加剧、美元走强以及最近地缘政治紧张局势加剧给美股前景蒙上浓厚的阴影。摩根大通策略师Mislav Matejka领导的团队在一份报告中写道:“投资者们甚至预计，与第一季度的预期水平相比，标普500指数成分公司整体的第四季度每股收益将增长近20%。”“在我们看来，这个预期门槛太高了。”在本周特斯拉、微软谷歌等科技巨头财报即将公布，或将决定标普500指数在5月中下旬英伟达业绩公布的基本走势，因此在投资者们近期愈发关注美股业绩数据，然而，美国股市的反弹已被美债收益率近期的飙升所破坏。在第一季度屡创新高之后，标普500指数在4月份跌超5%，由于英伟达(NVDA.US)等AI相关科技股股价暴跌，仅仅上周标普500指数的跌幅高达3%，主要因美联储官员们纷纷暗示美联储准备在更长时间内维持较高利率，加之中东地区地缘政治紧张局势重创市场风险偏好。Wilson和Matejka这两位华尔街知名策略师均表示，推动美国股市进一步上涨的压力将是企业盈利能力，而不是利率预期。然而，Matejka表示，市场仍然表现出一些“自满”情绪，因为市场仍然没有将“明年经济下滑的重大风险”纳入定价因素。这位策略师今年仍是对美国股市最为悲观的看跌策略师之一，相比之下Wilson对于美股后市偏向中性。“考虑到企业盈利增速这一点，我们认为谨慎乐观情绪仍有理由存在。” Wilson表示。不过，他预计大部分的盈利增长速度将在今年晚些时候实现。这位策略师表示，从短期角度来看，如果美债收益率，尤其是有“全球定价之锚”称号的10年期美债收益率保持在当前水平，标普500指数将面临至多5%的跌幅。最新投资者调查显示：美企强劲盈利即将提振美股美国银行的一项分析显示，自1929年以来，标普500指数平均每年会经历三次5%或以上的回调，尽管最近几个月美股基本在走高，但这种跌幅并不罕见。历史表明，一年的强劲开局之后往往会出现大幅回落，之后股市通常会自我调整并继续走高。信托顾问服务公司Truist Advisor Services的一项研究显示，标普500指数在第一季度每上涨10%或以上，就会出现11%的平均最大跌幅。不过，自1950年以来，在11次此类事件中，该指数有10次当年最终收涨。与此同时，最新的Markets Live Pulse调查显示，参与调查的个人与机构投资者们普遍预计，乐观的美国企业财报将把标普500指数(S&P 500)从最近的困境中拉出来。随着本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，意味着美股财报季进入最高潮阶段，409名受访者中有近三分之二表示，他们预计强劲的每股收益增速将提振美国股市，并且这一比例达到自2022年10月开始调查这一问题以来的最高水平。尽管中东紧张局势不断升级，但地缘政治风险的上升似乎并不是主要担忧。一个原因可能是，从历史上看，股市在类似的压力事件发生后会保持坚挺。汇丰控股多资产策略师的一项分析显示，在过去25年里，在重大地缘政治事件发生后，美国股市平均有70%的时间出现上涨。Bloomberg Intelligence策略师Gina Martin Adams以及 Wendy Soong在一份最新报告中表示，财报季迄今的早期业绩数据显示，企业每股收益出超出预期，为股票走势提供了坚实的支撑。“我对这个财报季相当乐观，预计不会有什么可怕的事情发生，” Premier Miton Investors首席投资官Neil Birrell接受调查时表示。汇丰美国和拉丁美洲股票策略主管Nicole Inui在调查中表示:“第一季度财报季可能会给美国股市带来不错的支撑效应，尤其是在过去一个月出现抛售的情况下。”财富管理公司Baker Avenue Wealth Management首席策略师King Lip表示：“回调早该出现了。我认为目前这是一次普通的调整。”Lip已开始为客户增加股票敞口，并计划在股市进一步下跌时买入更多股票。不过，他认为标普500指数可能会从3月28日的高点至多下跌10%。大型科技巨头们的业绩将成美股“救世主”?大型科技巨头们即将发布的财报，可以说为美国股市提供了一个“扭转市场局面”的重大机遇，同时也将告知全球投资者AI对于科技行业未来业绩增速的重要程度。此前标普500指数连续三周下跌，这是自去年9月以来最长的连续下跌。华尔街知名投资机构Wedbush的分析师Dan Ives表示，大量实地调研使得该机构对企业AI支出非常有信心，Ives预计今年人工智能支出有望占到企业IT预算的大约10%，而2023年仅不到1%。Ives表示，科技公司的盈利环境看起来仍然强劲，尤其是考虑到各大企业对人工智能的狂热情绪，这在过去一年里推动了科技股的飙升。该策略师补充道，无比强劲的财报季可能是科技股的主要积极催化剂，并预测到2024年底，该行业可能会再飙升15%。尤其值得注意的是，本周将有大约178家标普500指数成分股公司公布业绩，这些公司市值占该指数总市值的40%以上。但最大的期望还是来自大型科技公司，美股“科技七巨头”中的特斯拉(TSLA.US)、Meta(META.US)、微软(MSFT.US)、谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL.US)都将在本周公布财报。根据机构汇编的预期统计数据，“美股七大科技巨头”(英伟达、特斯拉、Meta、微软、苹果、亚马逊、Alphabet)第一季度每股收益同比有望飙升38%。如果剔除这七家公司，标普500指数其余公司利润预计将下降3.9%。此外，从对于美股2024年涨势贡献最大的“五大科技巨头”盈利预期来看，FactSet预期数据显示这些公司今年第一季度的每股收益增速有望达到惊人的64.3%。其他495家公司的收益预计将下降6%。“五大科技巨头”指的是：英伟达、亚马逊、微软、Alphabet以及Meta，如果它们的强大业绩增速能够实现，且超出市场预期，有望引领美股不断向上突破历史新高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297139954737288,"gmtCreate":1713572755746,"gmtModify":1713572758102,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"再跌可就真出事了。","listText":"再跌可就真出事了。","text":"再跌可就真出事了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297139954737288","repostId":"297068569248032","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":297068569248032,"gmtCreate":1713555242326,"gmtModify":1713701019297,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 英伟达这760750差不多就是底部了，要是PCE证强，整个整个股市再跌，波动太大、很容易冲击美联储的路径，pass，从这个结果出发，PCE证伪比证强的概率大很多，如何真的错误、那么意外着后面就是鱼更大、证强会把所有的指标像弹簧一样压到极致、出现最极致的单边call点，而且还是大范围多板块的单边call点，出现这种情况、市场上的资金也填不了这个call点、即使美联储马上100%停止缩表，这个点会把货币市场和避险资金都吸干，财政赤字扩大或美联储再QE才能压住这个点，这种情况pass，","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 英伟达这760750差不多就是底部了，要是PCE证强，整个整个股市再跌，波动太大、很容易冲击美联储的路径，pass，从这个结果出发，PCE证伪比证强的概率大很多，如何真的错误、那么意外着后面就是鱼更大、证强会把所有的指标像弹簧一样压到极致、出现最极致的单边call点，而且还是大范围多板块的单边call点，出现这种情况、市场上的资金也填不了这个call点、即使美联储马上100%停止缩表，这个点会把货币市场和避险资金都吸干，财政赤字扩大或美联储再QE才能压住这个点，这种情况pass，","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达这760750差不多就是底部了，要是PCE证强，整个整个股市再跌，波动太大、很容易冲击美联储的路径，pass，从这个结果出发，PCE证伪比证强的概率大很多，如何真的错误、那么意外着后面就是鱼更大、证强会把所有的指标像弹簧一样压到极致、出现最极致的单边call点，而且还是大范围多板块的单边call点，出现这种情况、市场上的资金也填不了这个call点、即使美联储马上100%停止缩表，这个点会把货币市场和避险资金都吸干，财政赤字扩大或美联储再QE才能压住这个点，这种情况pass，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297068569248032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":54,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297005760004312,"gmtCreate":1713540032795,"gmtModify":1713540034592,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"确实，820是真便宜，买到就是赚到","listText":"确实，820是真便宜，买到就是赚到","text":"确实，820是真便宜，买到就是赚到","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297005760004312","repostId":"2428684267","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2428684267","pubTimestamp":1713513120,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2428684267?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-19 15:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Dominance in Computing Era Underrated by Investors, Says Analyst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428684267","media":"WallStreetZen","summary":"Evercore ISI Group's Mark Lipacis initiated their coverage on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Buy rating and a $1,160 price target.In a sector review note titled \"The Tectonic Shift in Computing to The P","content":"<html><body><div><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI Group's Mark Lipacis initiated their coverage on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Buy rating and a $1,160 price target.</p><p>In a sector review note titled \"The Tectonic Shift in Computing to The Parallel Processing Era,\" Lipacis highlighted the importance of Nvidia's chip, hardware, and software ecosystem, stating that investors tend to underestimate its significance. Lipacis argued that computing eras typically last 15 to 20 years and are dominated by a single vertically integrated ecosystem company, whose returns can range from 100 to 1000 times the initial investment.</p><p>This bullish sentiment from Lipacis is supported by the ratings of other analysts. Currently, 93.5% of top-rated analysts rate NVDA as a Strong Buy or Buy, while 6.5% see it as a Hold. Notably, no analysts recommend or strongly recommend selling the stock.</p><p>Nvidia's stock performance has been impressive in recent times. Since the company's last quarterly report on January 28, 2024, the stock price has surged by 43.2%. Looking at the year-over-year figures, NVDA is up a staggering 223.7%. These numbers clearly demonstrate that Nvidia has outpaced the broader market, with the S&amp;P 500 only showing a 21.7% increase over the same period.</p><p>Mark Lipacis, the Evercore ISI Group analyst behind this coverage initiation, has a strong track record. WallStreetZen ranks Lipacis in the top 5% out of 4,551 Wall Street analysts, with an average return of 23.8% and an impressive win rate of 47.4%. Lipacis specializes in the Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, and Technology sectors.</p><p>Nvidia, headquartered in Santa Clara, California, is a leading provider of graphics, compute, and networking solutions. The company's Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, as well as related infrastructure and services. Additionally, Nvidia's Compute &amp; Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing, among other offerings. The company's products find applications in gaming, professional visualization, data centers, and automotive markets.</p><p>Nvidia's strategic collaborations and partnerships have further bolstered its position in the industry. For instance, the company has a collaboration agreement with Kroger Co., a notable player in the retail sector.</p></div></body></html>","source":"wallstreetzen_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Dominance in Computing Era Underrated by Investors, Says Analyst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Dominance in Computing Era Underrated by Investors, Says Analyst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-19 15:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wallstreetzen.com/news/nvidia-s-dominance-in-computing-era-underrated-by-investors-says-analyst><strong>WallStreetZen</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Evercore ISI Group's Mark Lipacis initiated their coverage on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Buy rating and a $1,160 price target.In a sector review note titled \"The Tectonic Shift in Computing to The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wallstreetzen.com/news/nvidia-s-dominance-in-computing-era-underrated-by-investors-says-analyst\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1520520688967-7bdc16e77dc2?crop=entropy&cs=tinysrgb&fit=crop&fm=jpg&ixid=M3w0NDY2OTN8MHwxfGFsbHx8fHx8fHx8fDE2ODc2NjU2Nzd8&ixlib=rb-4.0.3&q=80&w=260&utm_source=wallstreetzen&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=api-credit&h=180","relate_stocks":{"BK4543":"AI","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","ISBC":"投资者银行","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0494093205.USD":"贝莱德ESG灵活多元资产A2 USD-H","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4211":"区域性银行","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.wallstreetzen.com/news/nvidia-s-dominance-in-computing-era-underrated-by-investors-says-analyst","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2428684267","content_text":"Evercore ISI Group's Mark Lipacis initiated their coverage on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Buy rating and a $1,160 price target.In a sector review note titled \"The Tectonic Shift in Computing to The Parallel Processing Era,\" Lipacis highlighted the importance of Nvidia's chip, hardware, and software ecosystem, stating that investors tend to underestimate its significance. Lipacis argued that computing eras typically last 15 to 20 years and are dominated by a single vertically integrated ecosystem company, whose returns can range from 100 to 1000 times the initial investment.This bullish sentiment from Lipacis is supported by the ratings of other analysts. Currently, 93.5% of top-rated analysts rate NVDA as a Strong Buy or Buy, while 6.5% see it as a Hold. Notably, no analysts recommend or strongly recommend selling the stock.Nvidia's stock performance has been impressive in recent times. Since the company's last quarterly report on January 28, 2024, the stock price has surged by 43.2%. Looking at the year-over-year figures, NVDA is up a staggering 223.7%. These numbers clearly demonstrate that Nvidia has outpaced the broader market, with the S&P 500 only showing a 21.7% increase over the same period.Mark Lipacis, the Evercore ISI Group analyst behind this coverage initiation, has a strong track record. WallStreetZen ranks Lipacis in the top 5% out of 4,551 Wall Street analysts, with an average return of 23.8% and an impressive win rate of 47.4%. Lipacis specializes in the Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, and Technology sectors.Nvidia, headquartered in Santa Clara, California, is a leading provider of graphics, compute, and networking solutions. The company's Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, as well as related infrastructure and services. Additionally, Nvidia's Compute & Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing, among other offerings. The company's products find applications in gaming, professional visualization, data centers, and automotive markets.Nvidia's strategic collaborations and partnerships have further bolstered its position in the industry. For instance, the company has a collaboration agreement with Kroger Co., a notable player in the retail sector.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297003511341384,"gmtCreate":1713539362698,"gmtModify":1713539364552,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"英伟达订单持续增加，供不应求","listText":"英伟达订单持续增加，供不应求","text":"英伟达订单持续增加，供不应求","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297003511341384","repostId":"2428633857","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2428633857","pubTimestamp":1713516420,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2428633857?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-19 16:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"传微软计划在年底前囤积180万个AI芯片","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428633857","media":"C114通信网","summary":"根据海外一份文件显示，微软内部设立目标，在2024年底前囤积180万个人工智能芯片。文件显示，微软计划在2024年将GPU数量增加两倍。两位消息人士称，从本财年到2027财年，微软预计将在GPU和数据中心上花费约1000亿美元。Meta CEO扎克伯格今年早些时候在社交媒体表示，该公司将在2024年购买约35万个英伟达H100 GPU，到年底将持有约60万个同型号或同类AI芯片。尽管微软内部正努力设计自己的AI芯片，但一些人对此持怀疑态度，因为其技术落后于英伟达多年。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20240419164845834v206omri7mb43d3\"/><p>根据海外一份文件显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>内部设立目标，在2024年底前囤积180万个人工智能（AI）芯片。微软正试图让生成式AI变得更快、更好，但主要依赖<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的GPU芯片。文件显示，微软计划在2024年将GPU数量增加两倍。</p><p>微软一直与OpenAI公司合作发展人工智能，但要想在该领域保持领先，代价不菲。两位消息人士称，从本财年到2027财年，微软预计将在GPU和数据中心上花费约1000亿美元。</p><p>微软发言人Frank Shaw拒绝对此消息发表评论，理由是上市公司在公布财报前存在静默期。</p><p>其他科技巨头公司也在建立庞大的GPU储备，这也是英伟达市值在短时间内迅速增至2万亿美元的关键原因。Meta CEO扎克伯格今年早些时候在社交媒体表示，该公司将在2024年购买约35万个英伟达H100 GPU，到年底将持有约60万个同型号或同类AI芯片。</p><p>根据研究机构DA Davidson分析师估算，微软2023年在英伟达芯片上花费了45亿美元，一位微软高管表示，这一数字与实际情况相差无几。尽管微软内部正努力设计自己的AI芯片，但一些人对此持怀疑态度，因为其技术落后于英伟达多年。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>传微软计划在年底前囤积180万个AI芯片</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n传微软计划在年底前囤积180万个AI芯片\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-19 16:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202404191648508b3a418b&s=b><strong>C114通信网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>根据海外一份文件显示，微软内部设立目标，在2024年底前囤积180万个人工智能（AI）芯片。微软正试图让生成式AI变得更快、更好，但主要依赖英伟达的GPU芯片。文件显示，微软计划在2024年将GPU数量增加两倍。微软一直与OpenAI公司合作发展人工智能，但要想在该领域保持领先，代价不菲。两位消息人士称，从本财年到2027财年，微软预计将在GPU和数据中心上花费约1000亿美元。微软发言人...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202404191648508b3a418b&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4577":"网络游戏","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4538":"云计算","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity 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USD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","MSFT":"微软","BK4516":"特朗普概念","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0494093205.USD":"贝莱德ESG灵活多元资产A2 USD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0171293334.USD":"贝莱德英国基金A2","BK4576":"AR","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202404191648508b3a418b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2428633857","content_text":"根据海外一份文件显示，微软内部设立目标，在2024年底前囤积180万个人工智能（AI）芯片。微软正试图让生成式AI变得更快、更好，但主要依赖英伟达的GPU芯片。文件显示，微软计划在2024年将GPU数量增加两倍。微软一直与OpenAI公司合作发展人工智能，但要想在该领域保持领先，代价不菲。两位消息人士称，从本财年到2027财年，微软预计将在GPU和数据中心上花费约1000亿美元。微软发言人Frank Shaw拒绝对此消息发表评论，理由是上市公司在公布财报前存在静默期。其他科技巨头公司也在建立庞大的GPU储备，这也是英伟达市值在短时间内迅速增至2万亿美元的关键原因。Meta CEO扎克伯格今年早些时候在社交媒体表示，该公司将在2024年购买约35万个英伟达H100 GPU，到年底将持有约60万个同型号或同类AI芯片。根据研究机构DA Davidson分析师估算，微软2023年在英伟达芯片上花费了45亿美元，一位微软高管表示，这一数字与实际情况相差无几。尽管微软内部正努力设计自己的AI芯片，但一些人对此持怀疑态度，因为其技术落后于英伟达多年。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296661476413688,"gmtCreate":1713464806232,"gmtModify":1713464807864,"author":{"id":"3573325047854143","authorId":"3573325047854143","name":"火火先生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好文章","listText":"好文章","text":"好文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296661476413688","repostId":"2428183045","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2428183045","pubTimestamp":1713450880,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2428183045?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-18 22:34","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"但斌：怎样才能赚到现象级的钱？英伟达的调整只是短期现象","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428183045","media":"格隆汇","summary":"颠覆性的变化才刚刚开始","content":"<html><body><p><strong>4月18日下午，东方港湾董事长但斌在一场线上交流中，分享了自己对人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>行业的最新观点。</strong></p><p><strong><span>但斌表示，如果要说投资有什么核心密码的话，那么有三个：</span></strong></p><p><span>第一，投资要寻找主因；</span></p><p><span>第二，投资于那些能够改变世界的公司，以及那些不会被世界改变的公司；</span></p><p><span>第三，选择轻资产、高盈利的商业模式。</span></p><p><span>到目前为止，从战略选择的角度来看，在全球范围内，真正能够创造巨大产业机会的，可能只有人工智能。</span></p><p><span>从研究团队的设置上，东方港湾从去年开始，就仅保留了在医药、消费和工业方向上的少数研究员，其余的十余位研究员都转向了人工智能方向。</span></p><p><strong><span>但斌戏称，东方港湾对人工智能是All in式的投入。</span></strong></p><p><span>对人工智能的投资也使得东方港湾过去一段时间取得了丰硕的成果——</span></p><p><span>东方港湾旗下的海外基金，近期创出历史新高；</span></p><p><span>在去年全年获得了42%的回报，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>排名的全球近1万支基金中位列第二。</span></p><p><span>而从技术革命的角度来讲，此前的电子硬件时代、互联网时代和移动互联网时代过程中，胜出的公司在此期间市值增长了超过10倍。</span></p><p><span>如果这一规律延续，在AI时代，很有可能人类历史上会出现第一家市值达到10万亿美元的公司。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/259f0-b2012d6c-9af5-4d0f-98a6-e957e631ba78.jpg?guru_height=538&amp;guru_width=1080\"/></p><p><span><strong><span>本文精选了但斌分享的精华内容如下：</span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span><span><strong><span>1.</span></strong></span>事实上，AI基础层公司的估值并不特别高。</span></strong></p><p>以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>为例，根据今年的业绩预测，其市盈率大约是30倍，明年可能会降至20倍。</p><p><span>英伟达的毛利率约为74%，净利润率为49%，这意味着，如果有2000亿美元的收入，可能会有1000亿美元的净利润。</span></p><p>虽然<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>看起来有点贵，但我们预测微软未来五年的利润可能会增长一倍。</p><p><strong><span><strong><span>2.</span></strong></span></strong><strong><span>想要赚到大钱，应该持有什么？</span></strong></p><p>那就是持有一家公司从成长股到价值股的整个过程，并用产业结构的视角去持有它。</p><p>只有这样，你才能赚到现象级的钱。</p><p><strong><span><strong><span><strong><span>3.</span></strong></span></strong>最近，比如英伟达和其他一些AI相关公司的股票有所调整。</span></strong></p><p>但坦白说，在历史的长河中，这只是短期现象。</p><p><span>我之前写过一篇文章，探讨为什么大多数人会错失一个时代。</span></p><p><span>在投资一个行业的过程当中，我们也可能会被一些次要因素所干扰。</span></p><p>忽略这些短期变化，实际上，从产业的角度来看，人工智能目前仍然是在爆发的第一天。</p><p><strong><span><strong><span><strong><span><strong><span>4.</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong>当移动互联网刚开始时，像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、Facebook等公司，虽然已经是大公司，它们的总市值加起来是5000亿美元。</span></strong></p><p>但随后，这些公司的市值增长了12倍……</p><p>虽然我们不知道第四次技术革命是否会打破这一规律，但我认为延续的可能性仍然很大。</p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">资本市场真正的</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">决定因素是技术进步</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>总结来说，资本市场的真正决定因素是什么？</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>是技术进步。</span></strong></p><p><span>技术进步带来的财富增长、市值提升和企业盈利增加，是更为关键的决策因素，其重要性超过了利率的升降。</span></p><p><span>最近几天，由于经济数据表现良好，许多人认为今年可能不会降息，</span></p><p><span>这导致资本市场承受了一定的压力。</span></p><p><span>尽管如此，我们的决策依据并未改变，</span></p><p><span>但大多数人的决策，还是基于这种短期或次要因素。</span></p><p><span>短期，这些因素当然会有影响，但从长远来看，它只是次要的。</span></p><p><strong><span>如果我们从年度表现来看，技术进步的影响要深远得多。</span></strong></p><p><span>实际上，东方港湾在2021年-2022年期间，包括2023年，也面临了挑战，业绩出现了一定程度的下滑，表现并不理想。</span></p><p><span>在这一表现不佳的时期，东方港湾决定对10亿以下的产品不收取管理费，每年放弃一亿的收入，希望与客户共同面对挑战。</span></p><p><span>当然，东方港湾希望能够通过自身的努力来扭转当前的局面。</span></p><p><span>东方港湾已经成立了20年，回想起2004年成立之初，我们正处在移动互联网时代的浪潮中。</span></p><p><strong><span>我曾与同事们讨论，如果我们当时清楚地认识到移动互联网时代的到来，我们的投资策略会是怎样？</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>我们可能甚至不会投资龙头白酒公司，</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>而应该投资像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>这样具有创新商业模式的公司，因为它们可能带来的收益远超龙头白酒。</span></strong></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">人工智能时代</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">可能也将持续10年以上</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>去年，我们又迎来了一个新的时代——人工智能时代。</span></strong></p><p><span>2004年，我37岁创立东方港湾，到现在我已经57岁了。</span></p><p><span>投资是一个经验积累的行业，与许多其他行业不同。</span></p><p><span>在其他行业，到了我这个年龄可能就该考虑退休了。</span></p><p><span>但在投资行业，经验积累至关重要。</span></p><p><span>到了现在这个年龄，我认为在做决策时应该比年轻时更加敏锐、坚定和具有洞察力，更加充满热情地做出这样的决策。</span></p><p><span>自去年以来，我们制定了这样的战略，</span></p><p><span>东方港湾一直在全力以赴地迎接人工智能时代的到来。</span></p><p><strong><span>我们观察到，在过去的三个时代中，每个时代都持续了十年以上的发展。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>如果我们将去年视为这一时代的元年，那么这个机会很可能会持续10年以上。</span></strong></p><p><span>既然我们认同，人工智能时代是比之前的电子硬件时代、互联网时代和移动互联网时代、更具有无限潜力的技术革命，</span></p><p><span>那么，它创造的财富应该会更多。</span></p><p><span>在前三个时代中，我们观察到，每个时代的增长几乎都是十倍的乘数效应。</span></p><p><span>我们也有数据支持这一点，</span></p><p><span>我们可以预见，如果这一规律持续下去，那么在大约十年后，我们很可能会看到第一家市值达到10万亿美元的公司。</span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">投资的三大核心密码</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">寻找主因是第一条</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数在过去98年的年化收益率约为5.96%，它呈现了相对长的牛市趋势——牛市较长而熊市相对较短。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>在一个长期向好的市场中，长期投资的收益实际上是最高的，这与短期投机是完全不同的。</span></strong></p><p><span>投资的第一个原则是寻找主因。</span></p><p><span>这里的主要因素就是技术进步。</span></p><p><strong><span>投资还有第二个原则的话，那就是，投资于那些能够改变世界和那些不会被世界改变的公司。</span></strong></p><p><span>如果我们将这句话视为投资的第二个核心密码，那么我们会发现，符合这两个方向的公司实际上非常少。</span></p><p><strong><span>那些不会被世界改变的公司，仔细思考后，你会发现，这样的公司并不多，比如龙头白酒、爱马仕、路易威登等。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>除非文化发生改变，否则这些公司很难被改变。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>而那些能够改变世界的公司就更少了，</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>实际上全球范围内，能够真正改变世界的公司寥寥无几。</span></strong></p><p><span>因此，如果你根据这两个方向来构建投资组合，那么你选择的公司数量应该很少，非常少。</span></p><p><span>当然，我们的投资组合曾经历了较大的回撤，这是因为我们投资了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉是不是一家改变世界的公司？</span></p><p><span>毫无疑问，它是。</span></p><p><strong><span>东方港湾是从特斯拉股价大约30美元时，就开始研究这家公司，</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>后来在股价大约90美元时大量买入，包括在疫情期间，特斯拉也为我们带来了收益。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>但在前年，由于我们对特斯拉的投资较多，它有比较大的回撤。</span></strong></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">轻资产和高盈利</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">抗风险能力更强</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>从我们自身的角度来看，还有第三个核心原则，那就是轻资产和高盈利。</span></strong></p><p><span>尽管特斯拉是一家改变世界的公司，我至今仍然很看好它的长期前景，</span></p><p><span>但在特斯拉实现无人驾驶和人形<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>技术之前，它仍然是一家重资产的汽车公司。</span></p><p><span>众所周知，重资产公司的毛利率和净利率，往往较大地受到宏观经济波动的影响，其竞争格局也容易受到重大影响。</span></p><p><span>与之相比，轻资产、高盈利的公司，包括平台型公司，相对来说抗风险能力更强。</span></p><p><span>因此，如果要说投资有什么核心密码的话，我认为有三个：</span></p><p><span>第一，投资要寻找主因；</span></p><p><span>第二，投资于那些能够改变世界的公司，以及那些不会被世界改变的公司；</span></p><p><span>第三，选择轻资产、高盈利的商业模式。</span></p><p><strong><span>实际上，从2008年东方港湾吃到大亏以后，</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>我们基本上放弃了在依赖杠杆的商业模式中的投资，比如房地产、保险和银行业。</span></strong></p><p><span>在经济危机中，这些依赖杠杆的商业模式很容易出现问题。</span></p><p><span>到目前为止，从战略选择的角度来看，在全球范围内，真正能够创造巨大产业机会的，可能只有人工智能。</span></p><p><span>我们为什么以美国的人工智能公司作为首选呢？</span></p><p><span>因为人工智能行业需要巨大的投入，以及潜在的技术优势。</span></p><p><span>遗憾的是，华为不上市。</span></p><p><span>如果华为上市，我们肯定会重仓投资华为这样领先的人工智能公司。</span></p><p><strong><span>以全球七大科技公司为例，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>去年的研发投入高达856亿美元，谷歌也投入了超过450亿美元。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>此外，前天发布的消息是，它宣布计划在人工智能领域再投资1000亿美元。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>微软在近两年的研发投入均为270多亿美元，虽然看似增长不大，但它也宣布将投资1000亿美元。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>苹果公司去年的研发投入接近300亿美元，今年的投资额更多。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>预计今年亚马逊的研发投入也将超过1000亿美元。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>我们看到，已经有三家公司的投资超过了1000亿美元。</span></strong></p><p><span>华为去年的研发投入大约是1000多亿人民币，这可能比微软去年的研发投入还要少一些。</span></p><p><span>此外，奥尔特曼（OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman）说将投资7万亿美元——这相当于日本和德国GDP之和，用于投资芯片和人工智能领域。</span></p><p><span>所以我们看到的是，人工智能行业需要巨额的资金投入，这是一个竞争激烈的行业。</span></p><p><span>这有点像所谓的“缩放理论”，即在投资未达到某个临界点之前，技术可能很弱。</span></p><p><span>但一旦突破，如果摩尔定律没有达到上限，就需要继续投资。</span></p><p><span>竞争的格局迫使这些大公司不断投入，否则就有被淘汰的风险。</span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">OpenAI的上市</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">可能意味着泡沫的出现</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>人工智能的商业模式特征，是高投入和巨额投资，</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>最终胜出的大概率很可能还是那些能够持续投入的公司——与移动互联网时代的结果一样。</span></strong></p><p><span>目前，我们的关注点仍然集中在那些能够进行巨额投资的公司，尤其是那些专注于AI基础层的公司。</span></p><p><strong><span>事实上，AI基础层公司的估值并不特别高。</span></strong></p><p><span>以英伟达为例，根据今年的业绩预测，其市盈率大约是30倍，明年可能会降至20倍。</span></p><p><span>英伟达的毛利率约为74%，净利润率为49%，这意味着，如果有2000亿美元的收入，可能会有1000亿美元的净利润。</span></p><p><span>虽然微软看起来有点贵，但我们预测微软未来五年的利润可能会增长一倍。</span></p><p><span>像Meta、谷歌、苹果，它们的市盈率都在20多倍。</span></p><p><span>苹果每年还有900亿美元的股票回购，回购后这些股票就会被注销。</span></p><p><span>想象一下，如果苹果持续回购股票10年……</span></p><p><span>Meta也宣布了500亿美元的股票回购。</span></p><p><span>同样，英伟达在去年7月股价最高点时，也宣布了270亿美元的股票回购计划。</span></p><p><span>我们还看到，人工智能的发展可能会带来像亚马逊这样的公司变革，因为它的人力投入是比较大的。</span></p><p><span>人形机器人技术发展，可能会使其成本急剧下降——</span></p><p><strong><span>此外，与许多公司相比，这些公司最大的不同之处，在于它们拥有第二增长曲线和第三增长曲线。</span></strong></p><p><span>以微软为例，它从最初的Windows操作系统发展到云计算，现在又进入了人工智能领域。</span></p><p><span>实际上已经经历了第二增长阶段和第三增长阶段，甚至可以说是第四增长阶段。</span></p><p><span>包括今年表现不佳的特斯拉，</span></p><p><span>它在无人驾驶和人形机器人技术上的投入，预示着它的第二增长和第三增长。</span></p><p><span>同样，尽管今年苹果的表现也不是很好，但就像从功能手机向智能手机的转变，</span></p><p><span>如果能够再到AI手机的转变，那么很可能在明年或者今年年底，迎来AI手机的换机潮，这可能会为苹果带来新的增长极。</span></p><p><strong><span>任何一个泡沫的破裂，通常都会有一些标志性的变化。</span></strong></p><p><span>在互联网时代，一个带有.com后缀的公司上市并被爆炒时，这可能就是泡沫的一个标志。</span></p><p><strong><span>目前，OpenAI尚未上市，我预计OpenAI的上市，可能会成为人工智能时代的一个标志性事件。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>假设OpenAI上市时的市值是2000亿或3000亿美元，如果它的市值能够增长到1万亿美元，那么这可能会引发一波AI公司的上市热潮。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>届时AI公司可能会被爆炒，这可能就标志着一个泡沫阶段的到来。</span></strong></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">人类社会再次</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">达到了一个临界点</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>目前，还是刚开始，我们对人工智能的关注，主要集中在AI基础层这一方向，</span></strong></p><p><span>我们还没有向AI的垂直应用领域扩展，尽管这个领域也存在很多机会。</span></p><p><span>此外，从长期来看，我们试图观察科技革命的影响。</span></p><p><span>无论是人口结构还是财富增长，在过去几千年的变化中，技术革命是投资中最核心的要素。</span></p><p><span>它是一种根本性的变革。</span></p><p><span>在人类历史上，真正引起社会指数级变化的是蒸汽机时代的开始。</span></p><p><span>现在我们进入了什么时代呢？</span></p><p><span>那就是人工智能时代。</span></p><p><span>人工智能时代的变化，在某种程度上类似于蒸汽机对人类社会的影响。</span></p><p><strong><span>人类社会再次达到了一个临界点。</span></strong></p><p><span>从长期来看，互联网，自90年代以来，以腾讯为例，它已经从一个成长股转变为价值股，经历了几十年的演变。</span></p><p><span>同样，自2005年以来，智能手机行业也经历了几十年的变化，苹果公司总体上也从成长股转变为价值股。</span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">持有一家公司从成长股</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">到价值股的整个过程</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>我最近写了一篇短文，我说，如果想要赚到大钱，应该持有什么？</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>那就是持有一家公司从成长股到价值股的整个过程，并用产业结构的视角去持有它。</span></strong></p><p><span>这种持有通常需要十年、二十年的时间。</span></p><p><span>因为只有这样，你才能赚到现象级的钱。</span></p><p><span>如果你想要赚到上百倍的钱、现象级的钱，</span></p><p><span>你就一定要从产业的角度去持有一个完整的周期，即从成长股到价值股的过程。</span></p><p><span>我们现在仅仅处于AI技术爆发的第一天。</span></p><p><strong><span>最近，比如英伟达和其他一些AI相关公司的股票有所调整。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>但坦白说，在历史的长河中，这只是短期现象。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>我之前写过一篇文章，探讨为什么大多数人会错失一个时代。</span></strong></p><p><span>这个时代的变革雷声滚滚，在投资一个行业的过程当中，我们也可能会被一些次要因素所干扰。</span></p><p><span>比如，最近有关英伟达与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>的争论，这种讨论当然是有益的，但也可能影响你的判断。</span></p><p><span>从产业的角度来看，如果你忽略这些短期变化，如果我们从长期视角来看，</span></p><p><strong><span>实际上，从产业的角度来看，人工智能目前仍然是在爆发的第一天。</span></strong></p><p><span>我们可以看到，在前几次技术革命浪潮中，都产生了许多大型应用。</span></p><p><span>以互联网为例，随着互联网的到来，像亚马逊、Netflix、谷歌和Facebook等公司都取得了巨大的成功。</span></p><p><span>同样，在智能手机时代，也涌现出了种种创新应用。</span></p><p><span>我们认为，投资一定要有一种持续学习和迭代的精神，否则你可能会很遗憾。</span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">颠覆性的变化</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">才刚刚开始</font></span></strong></span></p><p><span>实际上，未来AI医生也是一个发展方向。</span></p><p><span>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">诺华</a>诺德投资了8800万美元与英伟达合作，这涉及到医药研发。</span></p><p><span>ChatGPT技术出来以后，我有一个朋友在美国一家动漫公司工作，</span></p><p><span>他看到AI技术后表示，这项技术颠覆了他从本科到研究生所学的专业，他认为自己的专业知识已经过时了。</span></p><p><span>当Sora技术出现时，他认为电影工业将会经历一场变革。</span></p><p><span>不久前，另一位朋友从美国回来，他提到即使是全球顶尖的卡内基梅隆大学计算机专业的学生，过去通常是还没毕业就拿到了Offer，但去年这个专业有一半的毕业生找不到工作。</span></p><p><span>有些学校的一些计算机课程甚至被取消。</span></p><p><strong><span>我们可以看到，这种颠覆性的变化才刚刚开始。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>我们再来看互联网，在过去的几次技术革命中，实际上都带来了超过10倍的变化。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>以移动互联网时代为例，当移动互联网刚开始时，像苹果、谷歌、Facebook等公司，虽然已经是大公司，它们的总市值加起来是5000亿美元。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>但随后，这些公司的市值增长了12倍。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>在之前的几次技术革命中，相关公司的市值也都增长了10倍以上。</span></strong></p><p><span>因此，我刚才提到，很有可能人类会出现第一家市值达到10万亿美元的公司。</span></p><p><span>因为在过去的三次技术革命中，这一规律一直存在。</span></p><p><span>虽然我们不知道第四次革命是否会打破这一规律，但我认为这一规律继续延续的可能性仍然很大。</span></p><p><span>另外，在过去的50年里，我们看到的是GPU和软件的结合，生产出了越来越快的计算机。</span></p><p><span>那么在未来50年，我们将看到的是GPU加上AI模型，这将等同于超级智能大脑，这是未来50年的变革。</span></p><p><span>包括我们看到马斯克的脑机接口技术，它让一位瘫痪的年轻人通过植入芯片就能玩游戏。</span></p><p><strong><span>目前，我认为人工智能造福人类的可能性相当大。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>作为投资者，在这样一个变革的时代，东方港湾全力以赴地迎接这个时代的到来。</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>从某种意义上说，东方港湾现在就像是一家人工智能公司，我们正全力以赴地朝这个方向前进。</span></strong></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>但斌：怎样才能赚到现象级的钱？英伟达的调整只是短期现象</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n但斌：怎样才能赚到现象级的钱？英伟达的调整只是短期现象\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-18 22:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/721121><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月18日下午，东方港湾董事长但斌在一场线上交流中，分享了自己对人工智能行业的最新观点。但斌表示，如果要说投资有什么核心密码的话，那么有三个：第一，投资要寻找主因；第二，投资于那些能够改变世界的公司，以及那些不会被世界改变的公司；第三，选择轻资产、高盈利的商业模式。到目前为止，从战略选择的角度来看，在全球范围内，真正能够创造巨大产业机会的，可能只有人工智能。从研究团队的设置上，东方港湾从去年开始，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/721121\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1c07b-1d65aefd-dff1-4323-9882-374c009f155b.jpg?guru_height=870&guru_width=1280","relate_stocks":{"IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH 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Acc","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/721121","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2428183045","content_text":"4月18日下午，东方港湾董事长但斌在一场线上交流中，分享了自己对人工智能行业的最新观点。但斌表示，如果要说投资有什么核心密码的话，那么有三个：第一，投资要寻找主因；第二，投资于那些能够改变世界的公司，以及那些不会被世界改变的公司；第三，选择轻资产、高盈利的商业模式。到目前为止，从战略选择的角度来看，在全球范围内，真正能够创造巨大产业机会的，可能只有人工智能。从研究团队的设置上，东方港湾从去年开始，就仅保留了在医药、消费和工业方向上的少数研究员，其余的十余位研究员都转向了人工智能方向。但斌戏称，东方港湾对人工智能是All in式的投入。对人工智能的投资也使得东方港湾过去一段时间取得了丰硕的成果——东方港湾旗下的海外基金，近期创出历史新高；在去年全年获得了42%的回报，在摩根士丹利排名的全球近1万支基金中位列第二。而从技术革命的角度来讲，此前的电子硬件时代、互联网时代和移动互联网时代过程中，胜出的公司在此期间市值增长了超过10倍。如果这一规律延续，在AI时代，很有可能人类历史上会出现第一家市值达到10万亿美元的公司。本文精选了但斌分享的精华内容如下：1.事实上，AI基础层公司的估值并不特别高。以英伟达为例，根据今年的业绩预测，其市盈率大约是30倍，明年可能会降至20倍。英伟达的毛利率约为74%，净利润率为49%，这意味着，如果有2000亿美元的收入，可能会有1000亿美元的净利润。虽然微软看起来有点贵，但我们预测微软未来五年的利润可能会增长一倍。2.想要赚到大钱，应该持有什么？那就是持有一家公司从成长股到价值股的整个过程，并用产业结构的视角去持有它。只有这样，你才能赚到现象级的钱。3.最近，比如英伟达和其他一些AI相关公司的股票有所调整。但坦白说，在历史的长河中，这只是短期现象。我之前写过一篇文章，探讨为什么大多数人会错失一个时代。在投资一个行业的过程当中，我们也可能会被一些次要因素所干扰。忽略这些短期变化，实际上，从产业的角度来看，人工智能目前仍然是在爆发的第一天。4.当移动互联网刚开始时，像苹果、谷歌、Facebook等公司，虽然已经是大公司，它们的总市值加起来是5000亿美元。但随后，这些公司的市值增长了12倍……虽然我们不知道第四次技术革命是否会打破这一规律，但我认为延续的可能性仍然很大。资本市场真正的决定因素是技术进步总结来说，资本市场的真正决定因素是什么？是技术进步。技术进步带来的财富增长、市值提升和企业盈利增加，是更为关键的决策因素，其重要性超过了利率的升降。最近几天，由于经济数据表现良好，许多人认为今年可能不会降息，这导致资本市场承受了一定的压力。尽管如此，我们的决策依据并未改变，但大多数人的决策，还是基于这种短期或次要因素。短期，这些因素当然会有影响，但从长远来看，它只是次要的。如果我们从年度表现来看，技术进步的影响要深远得多。实际上，东方港湾在2021年-2022年期间，包括2023年，也面临了挑战，业绩出现了一定程度的下滑，表现并不理想。在这一表现不佳的时期，东方港湾决定对10亿以下的产品不收取管理费，每年放弃一亿的收入，希望与客户共同面对挑战。当然，东方港湾希望能够通过自身的努力来扭转当前的局面。东方港湾已经成立了20年，回想起2004年成立之初，我们正处在移动互联网时代的浪潮中。我曾与同事们讨论，如果我们当时清楚地认识到移动互联网时代的到来，我们的投资策略会是怎样？我们可能甚至不会投资龙头白酒公司，而应该投资像腾讯这样具有创新商业模式的公司，因为它们可能带来的收益远超龙头白酒。人工智能时代可能也将持续10年以上去年，我们又迎来了一个新的时代——人工智能时代。2004年，我37岁创立东方港湾，到现在我已经57岁了。投资是一个经验积累的行业，与许多其他行业不同。在其他行业，到了我这个年龄可能就该考虑退休了。但在投资行业，经验积累至关重要。到了现在这个年龄，我认为在做决策时应该比年轻时更加敏锐、坚定和具有洞察力，更加充满热情地做出这样的决策。自去年以来，我们制定了这样的战略，东方港湾一直在全力以赴地迎接人工智能时代的到来。我们观察到，在过去的三个时代中，每个时代都持续了十年以上的发展。如果我们将去年视为这一时代的元年，那么这个机会很可能会持续10年以上。既然我们认同，人工智能时代是比之前的电子硬件时代、互联网时代和移动互联网时代、更具有无限潜力的技术革命，那么，它创造的财富应该会更多。在前三个时代中，我们观察到，每个时代的增长几乎都是十倍的乘数效应。我们也有数据支持这一点，我们可以预见，如果这一规律持续下去，那么在大约十年后，我们很可能会看到第一家市值达到10万亿美元的公司。投资的三大核心密码寻找主因是第一条标普500指数在过去98年的年化收益率约为5.96%，它呈现了相对长的牛市趋势——牛市较长而熊市相对较短。在一个长期向好的市场中，长期投资的收益实际上是最高的，这与短期投机是完全不同的。投资的第一个原则是寻找主因。这里的主要因素就是技术进步。投资还有第二个原则的话，那就是，投资于那些能够改变世界和那些不会被世界改变的公司。如果我们将这句话视为投资的第二个核心密码，那么我们会发现，符合这两个方向的公司实际上非常少。那些不会被世界改变的公司，仔细思考后，你会发现，这样的公司并不多，比如龙头白酒、爱马仕、路易威登等。除非文化发生改变，否则这些公司很难被改变。而那些能够改变世界的公司就更少了，实际上全球范围内，能够真正改变世界的公司寥寥无几。因此，如果你根据这两个方向来构建投资组合，那么你选择的公司数量应该很少，非常少。当然，我们的投资组合曾经历了较大的回撤，这是因为我们投资了特斯拉。特斯拉是不是一家改变世界的公司？毫无疑问，它是。东方港湾是从特斯拉股价大约30美元时，就开始研究这家公司，后来在股价大约90美元时大量买入，包括在疫情期间，特斯拉也为我们带来了收益。但在前年，由于我们对特斯拉的投资较多，它有比较大的回撤。轻资产和高盈利抗风险能力更强从我们自身的角度来看，还有第三个核心原则，那就是轻资产和高盈利。尽管特斯拉是一家改变世界的公司，我至今仍然很看好它的长期前景，但在特斯拉实现无人驾驶和人形机器人技术之前，它仍然是一家重资产的汽车公司。众所周知，重资产公司的毛利率和净利率，往往较大地受到宏观经济波动的影响，其竞争格局也容易受到重大影响。与之相比，轻资产、高盈利的公司，包括平台型公司，相对来说抗风险能力更强。因此，如果要说投资有什么核心密码的话，我认为有三个：第一，投资要寻找主因；第二，投资于那些能够改变世界的公司，以及那些不会被世界改变的公司；第三，选择轻资产、高盈利的商业模式。实际上，从2008年东方港湾吃到大亏以后，我们基本上放弃了在依赖杠杆的商业模式中的投资，比如房地产、保险和银行业。在经济危机中，这些依赖杠杆的商业模式很容易出现问题。到目前为止，从战略选择的角度来看，在全球范围内，真正能够创造巨大产业机会的，可能只有人工智能。我们为什么以美国的人工智能公司作为首选呢？因为人工智能行业需要巨大的投入，以及潜在的技术优势。遗憾的是，华为不上市。如果华为上市，我们肯定会重仓投资华为这样领先的人工智能公司。以全球七大科技公司为例，亚马逊去年的研发投入高达856亿美元，谷歌也投入了超过450亿美元。此外，前天发布的消息是，它宣布计划在人工智能领域再投资1000亿美元。微软在近两年的研发投入均为270多亿美元，虽然看似增长不大，但它也宣布将投资1000亿美元。苹果公司去年的研发投入接近300亿美元，今年的投资额更多。预计今年亚马逊的研发投入也将超过1000亿美元。我们看到，已经有三家公司的投资超过了1000亿美元。华为去年的研发投入大约是1000多亿人民币，这可能比微软去年的研发投入还要少一些。此外，奥尔特曼（OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman）说将投资7万亿美元——这相当于日本和德国GDP之和，用于投资芯片和人工智能领域。所以我们看到的是，人工智能行业需要巨额的资金投入，这是一个竞争激烈的行业。这有点像所谓的“缩放理论”，即在投资未达到某个临界点之前，技术可能很弱。但一旦突破，如果摩尔定律没有达到上限，就需要继续投资。竞争的格局迫使这些大公司不断投入，否则就有被淘汰的风险。OpenAI的上市可能意味着泡沫的出现人工智能的商业模式特征，是高投入和巨额投资，最终胜出的大概率很可能还是那些能够持续投入的公司——与移动互联网时代的结果一样。目前，我们的关注点仍然集中在那些能够进行巨额投资的公司，尤其是那些专注于AI基础层的公司。事实上，AI基础层公司的估值并不特别高。以英伟达为例，根据今年的业绩预测，其市盈率大约是30倍，明年可能会降至20倍。英伟达的毛利率约为74%，净利润率为49%，这意味着，如果有2000亿美元的收入，可能会有1000亿美元的净利润。虽然微软看起来有点贵，但我们预测微软未来五年的利润可能会增长一倍。像Meta、谷歌、苹果，它们的市盈率都在20多倍。苹果每年还有900亿美元的股票回购，回购后这些股票就会被注销。想象一下，如果苹果持续回购股票10年……Meta也宣布了500亿美元的股票回购。同样，英伟达在去年7月股价最高点时，也宣布了270亿美元的股票回购计划。我们还看到，人工智能的发展可能会带来像亚马逊这样的公司变革，因为它的人力投入是比较大的。人形机器人技术发展，可能会使其成本急剧下降——此外，与许多公司相比，这些公司最大的不同之处，在于它们拥有第二增长曲线和第三增长曲线。以微软为例，它从最初的Windows操作系统发展到云计算，现在又进入了人工智能领域。实际上已经经历了第二增长阶段和第三增长阶段，甚至可以说是第四增长阶段。包括今年表现不佳的特斯拉，它在无人驾驶和人形机器人技术上的投入，预示着它的第二增长和第三增长。同样，尽管今年苹果的表现也不是很好，但就像从功能手机向智能手机的转变，如果能够再到AI手机的转变，那么很可能在明年或者今年年底，迎来AI手机的换机潮，这可能会为苹果带来新的增长极。任何一个泡沫的破裂，通常都会有一些标志性的变化。在互联网时代，一个带有.com后缀的公司上市并被爆炒时，这可能就是泡沫的一个标志。目前，OpenAI尚未上市，我预计OpenAI的上市，可能会成为人工智能时代的一个标志性事件。假设OpenAI上市时的市值是2000亿或3000亿美元，如果它的市值能够增长到1万亿美元，那么这可能会引发一波AI公司的上市热潮。届时AI公司可能会被爆炒，这可能就标志着一个泡沫阶段的到来。人类社会再次达到了一个临界点目前，还是刚开始，我们对人工智能的关注，主要集中在AI基础层这一方向，我们还没有向AI的垂直应用领域扩展，尽管这个领域也存在很多机会。此外，从长期来看，我们试图观察科技革命的影响。无论是人口结构还是财富增长，在过去几千年的变化中，技术革命是投资中最核心的要素。它是一种根本性的变革。在人类历史上，真正引起社会指数级变化的是蒸汽机时代的开始。现在我们进入了什么时代呢？那就是人工智能时代。人工智能时代的变化，在某种程度上类似于蒸汽机对人类社会的影响。人类社会再次达到了一个临界点。从长期来看，互联网，自90年代以来，以腾讯为例，它已经从一个成长股转变为价值股，经历了几十年的演变。同样，自2005年以来，智能手机行业也经历了几十年的变化，苹果公司总体上也从成长股转变为价值股。持有一家公司从成长股到价值股的整个过程我最近写了一篇短文，我说，如果想要赚到大钱，应该持有什么？那就是持有一家公司从成长股到价值股的整个过程，并用产业结构的视角去持有它。这种持有通常需要十年、二十年的时间。因为只有这样，你才能赚到现象级的钱。如果你想要赚到上百倍的钱、现象级的钱，你就一定要从产业的角度去持有一个完整的周期，即从成长股到价值股的过程。我们现在仅仅处于AI技术爆发的第一天。最近，比如英伟达和其他一些AI相关公司的股票有所调整。但坦白说，在历史的长河中，这只是短期现象。我之前写过一篇文章，探讨为什么大多数人会错失一个时代。这个时代的变革雷声滚滚，在投资一个行业的过程当中，我们也可能会被一些次要因素所干扰。比如，最近有关英伟达与思科的争论，这种讨论当然是有益的，但也可能影响你的判断。从产业的角度来看，如果你忽略这些短期变化，如果我们从长期视角来看，实际上，从产业的角度来看，人工智能目前仍然是在爆发的第一天。我们可以看到，在前几次技术革命浪潮中，都产生了许多大型应用。以互联网为例，随着互联网的到来，像亚马逊、Netflix、谷歌和Facebook等公司都取得了巨大的成功。同样，在智能手机时代，也涌现出了种种创新应用。我们认为，投资一定要有一种持续学习和迭代的精神，否则你可能会很遗憾。颠覆性的变化才刚刚开始实际上，未来AI医生也是一个发展方向。例如，诺华诺德投资了8800万美元与英伟达合作，这涉及到医药研发。ChatGPT技术出来以后，我有一个朋友在美国一家动漫公司工作，他看到AI技术后表示，这项技术颠覆了他从本科到研究生所学的专业，他认为自己的专业知识已经过时了。当Sora技术出现时，他认为电影工业将会经历一场变革。不久前，另一位朋友从美国回来，他提到即使是全球顶尖的卡内基梅隆大学计算机专业的学生，过去通常是还没毕业就拿到了Offer，但去年这个专业有一半的毕业生找不到工作。有些学校的一些计算机课程甚至被取消。我们可以看到，这种颠覆性的变化才刚刚开始。我们再来看互联网，在过去的几次技术革命中，实际上都带来了超过10倍的变化。以移动互联网时代为例，当移动互联网刚开始时，像苹果、谷歌、Facebook等公司，虽然已经是大公司，它们的总市值加起来是5000亿美元。但随后，这些公司的市值增长了12倍。在之前的几次技术革命中，相关公司的市值也都增长了10倍以上。因此，我刚才提到，很有可能人类会出现第一家市值达到10万亿美元的公司。因为在过去的三次技术革命中，这一规律一直存在。虽然我们不知道第四次革命是否会打破这一规律，但我认为这一规律继续延续的可能性仍然很大。另外，在过去的50年里，我们看到的是GPU和软件的结合，生产出了越来越快的计算机。那么在未来50年，我们将看到的是GPU加上AI模型，这将等同于超级智能大脑，这是未来50年的变革。包括我们看到马斯克的脑机接口技术，它让一位瘫痪的年轻人通过植入芯片就能玩游戏。目前，我认为人工智能造福人类的可能性相当大。作为投资者，在这样一个变革的时代，东方港湾全力以赴地迎接这个时代的到来。从某种意义上说，东方港湾现在就像是一家人工智能公司，我们正全力以赴地朝这个方向前进。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}