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平头哥中的带头大哥
2023-11-29
$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$
平头哥中的带头大哥
2023-09-21
$SG人民币主连 2312(UCmain)$
平头哥中的带头大哥
2025-10-22
$微黄金主连 2512(MGCmain)$
平头哥中的带头大哥
2025-10-03
$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$
平头哥中的带头大哥
2025-09-17
$恒生科技指数主连 2509(HTImain)$
平头哥中的带头大哥
2025-03-21
$恒生科技指数主连 2503(HTImain)$
平头哥中的带头大哥
2025-01-09
$恒生科技指数主连 2501(HTImain)$
平头哥中的带头大哥
2024-11-22
我建议把跌的最多的剔除掉，这样好看多了
抱歉，原内容已删除
平头哥中的带头大哥
2024-11-22
是金融消费吗？
高盛A港股2025重磅策略展望：内资将掌握定价权！短期超配先A后H，行业抓住消费股！
平头哥中的带头大哥
2024-11-06
说了太详细了，但我什么都没听明白
抱歉，原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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2503(HTImain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/415995456897696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":390757511868584,"gmtCreate":1736428853202,"gmtModify":1736428854923,"author":{"id":"3572433901495671","authorId":"3572433901495671","name":"平头哥中的带头大哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26fca8793d9b571a06a792a870e89a19","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572433901495671","authorIdStr":"3572433901495671"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HTImain\">$恒生科技指数主连 2501(HTImain)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HTImain\">$恒生科技指数主连 2501(HTImain)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> ","text":"$恒生科技指数主连 2501(HTImain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390757511868584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373729524830632,"gmtCreate":1732283024425,"gmtModify":1732283026614,"author":{"id":"3572433901495671","authorId":"3572433901495671","name":"平头哥中的带头大哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26fca8793d9b571a06a792a870e89a19","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572433901495671","authorIdStr":"3572433901495671"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"我建议把跌的最多的剔除掉，这样好看多了","listText":"我建议把跌的最多的剔除掉，这样好看多了","text":"我建议把跌的最多的剔除掉，这样好看多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373729524830632","repostId":"1124788896","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373751289770296,"gmtCreate":1732278195764,"gmtModify":1732278200331,"author":{"id":"3572433901495671","authorId":"3572433901495671","name":"平头哥中的带头大哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26fca8793d9b571a06a792a870e89a19","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572433901495671","authorIdStr":"3572433901495671"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"是金融消费吗？","listText":"是金融消费吗？","text":"是金融消费吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373751289770296","repostId":"2485074484","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2485074484","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1732253929,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2485074484?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-22 13:38","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"高盛A港股2025重磅策略展望：内资将掌握定价权！短期超配先A后H，行业抓住消费股！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485074484","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛认为，相比港股，A股对于政策放松和个人投资资金流的敏感性更好。明年一季度后才是配置港股更好的时间点。板块方面，分析师建议投资者重点关注消费领域、新兴市场出口商、特定新技术以及股东回报策略等主题。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>认为，在政策刺激、企业盈利改善、公司回购提升等多项利好共同作用下，中国股市明年有望反弹，2025年MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数将分别上涨15%和13%。</p><p>短期内高盛更加青睐A股。分析师认为，<strong>相比港股，A股对于政策放松和个人投资资金流的敏感性更好。而受海外因素及国内政策落地影响，明年一季度后才是配置港股更好的时间点。</strong>板块方面，分析师建议投资者重点关注消费领域、新兴市场出口商、特定新技术以及股东回报策略等主题。</p><h2 id=\"id_861104629\">“最极端风险情景已被排除”</h2><p>高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津(Kinger Lau)团队在11月18日的年度策略报告中表示，在政策刺激下，国内明年消费和部分投资领域有望获得增长。受益于更有针对性的财政支出和消费补贴、服务业恢复及金融资产价格上涨带来的正向财富效应，消费增长有望从今年的3.8%反弹到明年的5%。</p><p>高盛表示，自9月政治局会议以来，<strong>市场最极端风险情景已被排除：</strong></p><blockquote><p>正如9月简报中传达的那样，政策目标已经从遏制风险转向维护增长。</p><p>政策应对措施以一揽子形式进行协调和交付，而非零散的方式。</p><p>政策越来越注重需求侧措施，因此政策的乘数效应可能更偏向国内，外部溢出效应较低。</p><p>刺激措施由中央政府和中央银行主导和发起；为提振股市采取了前所未有的创新举措。</p></blockquote><p>高盛认为，目前投资者已从政策“预期阶段”过渡到“确认阶段”，<strong>这意味需要看到政策细节才能进一步提升信心。</strong></p><p>分析师预计明年将进一步放宽货币政策，包括降准和降息，财政赤字将继续扩张以支持房地产去库存、地方政府债务置换、银行资本重组和刺激消费投资。</p><p>财政赤字扩大对企业盈利也有带动作用。<strong>高盛估算，每增加1万亿元的财政赤字（相当于GDP的0.8%），可能会推动次年EPS增长2个百分点。</strong></p><p>在市场关注的出口问题上，<strong>高盛目前预计2025出口量将在2024年高基数的基础上基本持平，对其他国家的出口增长将抵消对美出口的不利影响。</strong></p><p>从经济主题来看，高盛认为在政策支持下，<strong>消费和基础设施可能会成为市场利润的关键贡献者</strong>，而随着低基数效应开始发挥作用，房地产市场对盈利的拖累可能会有所缓和。在某些情景下，政策驱动的供给侧改革也可以通过更健康的利润率使得诸如汽车、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>和其他一些资本密集型行业受益。</p><h2 id=\"id_510599607\">外资影响减弱，内资将扮演主导地位</h2><p>高盛认为，考虑到外资目前对中国市场依然处于低配状态，内资明年对于市场的影响力可能进一步扩大。</p><p>在2020年后，海外对冲基金在中国市场上的配置经历了几轮快速波动，当前净多头/总敞口分别为7.1%/5.6%，处于5年平均值的11%/22%分位数，<strong>反映其仍以短期机会为导向。</strong>在长线资金方面，全球3.5万亿美元的共同基金资产对中国股票的配置同样不足。</p><p>但受益于45万亿元的家庭存款盈余和监管支持，<strong>国内投资者有较大潜力增加股票配置。</strong>国家队约占A股市值的5.4%，<strong>未来可能通过国家稳定基金进一步加大参与力度。</strong></p><p>上市公司回购也将利好股市。2024年第三季度，中国A股和H股市场的股票回购额均创历史新高，分别达到230亿美元。<strong>高盛预测2025年回购总额将接近翻倍，达到700亿美元。</strong>这主要得益于政策推动（央行3000亿元再贷款支持）、稳健的经营现金流，以及仍然较高的权益资本成本。</p><h2 id=\"id_4130316213\">短期更看好A股，港股要等一季度末</h2><p>高盛认为，A股和港股在全球股票范围内还处于较低的估值水平，吸引力还是非常大的。</p><p>目前明晟中国指数（MSCI China）相对于发达市场（DM）和除中国外的新兴市场（EM e-China）股票分别有46%和23%的折价，尽管明年盈利增长情况相近甚至更好，但这两个折价水平均处于各自历史范围的高位。</p><p>高盛预计，政策引发的资金流调整可能在2025年加速，企业、境内个人投资者、南向资金和政府类投资机构可能加大股市持仓。明年MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数将分别上涨15%和13%，每股盈利（EPS）的增长分别为7%和10%左右。</p><p><strong>由于对政策宽松更敏感，且受外部风险的影响较小，高盛短期内更偏向A股。高盛预计港股的交易改善需要等到2025年第一季度末，届时海外风险和国内政策宽松的清晰度可能会更加明确。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3901161984\">行业配置：跟着消费者走</h2><p>在行业配置方面，高盛建议投资者重点关注，政府消费、新兴市场出口商、精选新科技及股东回报等主题。</p><p>高盛表示，在政策驱动下，预计政府消费支出将显著回升，受益领域包括汽车、零售/服务、医疗设备及基础设施项目。数字经济、绿色能源及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>制造等政府支持领域也值得重点关注。</p><p>高盛特别强调，尽管高股息等关注股东回报的市场主题过去一年的已实现强劲的市场回报率，但这一主题2025年依然值得投资者关注：</p><blockquote><p>目前已有明确的政策和交付方式，以提高股东回报；上市公司向股东返还现金的能力看起来很有希望。</p><p>近50%的上市国有企业市值由政府相关实体持有，派息率每上升1个百分点，财政收入可增加230亿元人民币;</p><p>中国债券收益率下降，提高了即时现金回报的吸引力；在投资组合中减持股票的国内机构投资者对稳定收入的可能结构性需求；</p><p>更多以股息为导向的 ETF 已经筹集，从而增加了对高收益股票的需求。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛A港股2025重磅策略展望：内资将掌握定价权！短期超配先A后H，行业抓住消费股！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛A港股2025重磅策略展望：内资将掌握定价权！短期超配先A后H，行业抓住消费股！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-22 13:38 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3734794><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛认为，在政策刺激、企业盈利改善、公司回购提升等多项利好共同作用下，中国股市明年有望反弹，2025年MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数将分别上涨15%和13%。短期内高盛更加青睐A股。分析师认为，相比港股，A股对于政策放松和个人投资资金流的敏感性更好。而受海外因素及国内政策落地影响，明年一季度后才是配置港股更好的时间点。板块方面，分析师建议投资者重点关注消费领域、新兴市场出口商、特定新技术以及股东...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3734794\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58035caf274b0145bdae98c22e20f8e0","relate_stocks":{"LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","HSCEI":"国企指数","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3734794","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2485074484","content_text":"高盛认为，在政策刺激、企业盈利改善、公司回购提升等多项利好共同作用下，中国股市明年有望反弹，2025年MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数将分别上涨15%和13%。短期内高盛更加青睐A股。分析师认为，相比港股，A股对于政策放松和个人投资资金流的敏感性更好。而受海外因素及国内政策落地影响，明年一季度后才是配置港股更好的时间点。板块方面，分析师建议投资者重点关注消费领域、新兴市场出口商、特定新技术以及股东回报策略等主题。“最极端风险情景已被排除”高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津(Kinger Lau)团队在11月18日的年度策略报告中表示，在政策刺激下，国内明年消费和部分投资领域有望获得增长。受益于更有针对性的财政支出和消费补贴、服务业恢复及金融资产价格上涨带来的正向财富效应，消费增长有望从今年的3.8%反弹到明年的5%。高盛表示，自9月政治局会议以来，市场最极端风险情景已被排除：正如9月简报中传达的那样，政策目标已经从遏制风险转向维护增长。政策应对措施以一揽子形式进行协调和交付，而非零散的方式。政策越来越注重需求侧措施，因此政策的乘数效应可能更偏向国内，外部溢出效应较低。刺激措施由中央政府和中央银行主导和发起；为提振股市采取了前所未有的创新举措。高盛认为，目前投资者已从政策“预期阶段”过渡到“确认阶段”，这意味需要看到政策细节才能进一步提升信心。分析师预计明年将进一步放宽货币政策，包括降准和降息，财政赤字将继续扩张以支持房地产去库存、地方政府债务置换、银行资本重组和刺激消费投资。财政赤字扩大对企业盈利也有带动作用。高盛估算，每增加1万亿元的财政赤字（相当于GDP的0.8%），可能会推动次年EPS增长2个百分点。在市场关注的出口问题上，高盛目前预计2025出口量将在2024年高基数的基础上基本持平，对其他国家的出口增长将抵消对美出口的不利影响。从经济主题来看，高盛认为在政策支持下，消费和基础设施可能会成为市场利润的关键贡献者，而随着低基数效应开始发挥作用，房地产市场对盈利的拖累可能会有所缓和。在某些情景下，政策驱动的供给侧改革也可以通过更健康的利润率使得诸如汽车、太阳能和其他一些资本密集型行业受益。外资影响减弱，内资将扮演主导地位高盛认为，考虑到外资目前对中国市场依然处于低配状态，内资明年对于市场的影响力可能进一步扩大。在2020年后，海外对冲基金在中国市场上的配置经历了几轮快速波动，当前净多头/总敞口分别为7.1%/5.6%，处于5年平均值的11%/22%分位数，反映其仍以短期机会为导向。在长线资金方面，全球3.5万亿美元的共同基金资产对中国股票的配置同样不足。但受益于45万亿元的家庭存款盈余和监管支持，国内投资者有较大潜力增加股票配置。国家队约占A股市值的5.4%，未来可能通过国家稳定基金进一步加大参与力度。上市公司回购也将利好股市。2024年第三季度，中国A股和H股市场的股票回购额均创历史新高，分别达到230亿美元。高盛预测2025年回购总额将接近翻倍，达到700亿美元。这主要得益于政策推动（央行3000亿元再贷款支持）、稳健的经营现金流，以及仍然较高的权益资本成本。短期更看好A股，港股要等一季度末高盛认为，A股和港股在全球股票范围内还处于较低的估值水平，吸引力还是非常大的。目前明晟中国指数（MSCI China）相对于发达市场（DM）和除中国外的新兴市场（EM e-China）股票分别有46%和23%的折价，尽管明年盈利增长情况相近甚至更好，但这两个折价水平均处于各自历史范围的高位。高盛预计，政策引发的资金流调整可能在2025年加速，企业、境内个人投资者、南向资金和政府类投资机构可能加大股市持仓。明年MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数将分别上涨15%和13%，每股盈利（EPS）的增长分别为7%和10%左右。由于对政策宽松更敏感，且受外部风险的影响较小，高盛短期内更偏向A股。高盛预计港股的交易改善需要等到2025年第一季度末，届时海外风险和国内政策宽松的清晰度可能会更加明确。行业配置：跟着消费者走在行业配置方面，高盛建议投资者重点关注，政府消费、新兴市场出口商、精选新科技及股东回报等主题。高盛表示，在政策驱动下，预计政府消费支出将显著回升，受益领域包括汽车、零售/服务、医疗设备及基础设施项目。数字经济、绿色能源及智能制造等政府支持领域也值得重点关注。高盛特别强调，尽管高股息等关注股东回报的市场主题过去一年的已实现强劲的市场回报率，但这一主题2025年依然值得投资者关注：目前已有明确的政策和交付方式，以提高股东回报；上市公司向股东返还现金的能力看起来很有希望。近50%的上市国有企业市值由政府相关实体持有，派息率每上升1个百分点，财政收入可增加230亿元人民币;中国债券收益率下降，提高了即时现金回报的吸引力；在投资组合中减持股票的国内机构投资者对稳定收入的可能结构性需求；更多以股息为导向的 ETF 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Lau)团队在11月18日的年度策略报告中表示，在政策刺激下，国内明年消费和部分投资领域有望获得增长。受益于更有针对性的财政支出和消费补贴、服务业恢复及金融资产价格上涨带来的正向财富效应，消费增长有望从今年的3.8%反弹到明年的5%。</p><p>高盛表示，自9月政治局会议以来，<strong>市场最极端风险情景已被排除：</strong></p><blockquote><p>正如9月简报中传达的那样，政策目标已经从遏制风险转向维护增长。</p><p>政策应对措施以一揽子形式进行协调和交付，而非零散的方式。</p><p>政策越来越注重需求侧措施，因此政策的乘数效应可能更偏向国内，外部溢出效应较低。</p><p>刺激措施由中央政府和中央银行主导和发起；为提振股市采取了前所未有的创新举措。</p></blockquote><p>高盛认为，目前投资者已从政策“预期阶段”过渡到“确认阶段”，<strong>这意味需要看到政策细节才能进一步提升信心。</strong></p><p>分析师预计明年将进一步放宽货币政策，包括降准和降息，财政赤字将继续扩张以支持房地产去库存、地方政府债务置换、银行资本重组和刺激消费投资。</p><p>财政赤字扩大对企业盈利也有带动作用。<strong>高盛估算，每增加1万亿元的财政赤字（相当于GDP的0.8%），可能会推动次年EPS增长2个百分点。</strong></p><p>在市场关注的出口问题上，<strong>高盛目前预计2025出口量将在2024年高基数的基础上基本持平，对其他国家的出口增长将抵消对美出口的不利影响。</strong></p><p>从经济主题来看，高盛认为在政策支持下，<strong>消费和基础设施可能会成为市场利润的关键贡献者</strong>，而随着低基数效应开始发挥作用，房地产市场对盈利的拖累可能会有所缓和。在某些情景下，政策驱动的供给侧改革也可以通过更健康的利润率使得诸如汽车、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>和其他一些资本密集型行业受益。</p><h2 id=\"id_510599607\">外资影响减弱，内资将扮演主导地位</h2><p>高盛认为，考虑到外资目前对中国市场依然处于低配状态，内资明年对于市场的影响力可能进一步扩大。</p><p>在2020年后，海外对冲基金在中国市场上的配置经历了几轮快速波动，当前净多头/总敞口分别为7.1%/5.6%，处于5年平均值的11%/22%分位数，<strong>反映其仍以短期机会为导向。</strong>在长线资金方面，全球3.5万亿美元的共同基金资产对中国股票的配置同样不足。</p><p>但受益于45万亿元的家庭存款盈余和监管支持，<strong>国内投资者有较大潜力增加股票配置。</strong>国家队约占A股市值的5.4%，<strong>未来可能通过国家稳定基金进一步加大参与力度。</strong></p><p>上市公司回购也将利好股市。2024年第三季度，中国A股和H股市场的股票回购额均创历史新高，分别达到230亿美元。<strong>高盛预测2025年回购总额将接近翻倍，达到700亿美元。</strong>这主要得益于政策推动（央行3000亿元再贷款支持）、稳健的经营现金流，以及仍然较高的权益资本成本。</p><h2 id=\"id_4130316213\">短期更看好A股，港股要等一季度末</h2><p>高盛认为，A股和港股在全球股票范围内还处于较低的估值水平，吸引力还是非常大的。</p><p>目前明晟中国指数（MSCI China）相对于发达市场（DM）和除中国外的新兴市场（EM e-China）股票分别有46%和23%的折价，尽管明年盈利增长情况相近甚至更好，但这两个折价水平均处于各自历史范围的高位。</p><p>高盛预计，政策引发的资金流调整可能在2025年加速，企业、境内个人投资者、南向资金和政府类投资机构可能加大股市持仓。明年MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数将分别上涨15%和13%，每股盈利（EPS）的增长分别为7%和10%左右。</p><p><strong>由于对政策宽松更敏感，且受外部风险的影响较小，高盛短期内更偏向A股。高盛预计港股的交易改善需要等到2025年第一季度末，届时海外风险和国内政策宽松的清晰度可能会更加明确。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3901161984\">行业配置：跟着消费者走</h2><p>在行业配置方面，高盛建议投资者重点关注，政府消费、新兴市场出口商、精选新科技及股东回报等主题。</p><p>高盛表示，在政策驱动下，预计政府消费支出将显著回升，受益领域包括汽车、零售/服务、医疗设备及基础设施项目。数字经济、绿色能源及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>制造等政府支持领域也值得重点关注。</p><p>高盛特别强调，尽管高股息等关注股东回报的市场主题过去一年的已实现强劲的市场回报率，但这一主题2025年依然值得投资者关注：</p><blockquote><p>目前已有明确的政策和交付方式，以提高股东回报；上市公司向股东返还现金的能力看起来很有希望。</p><p>近50%的上市国有企业市值由政府相关实体持有，派息率每上升1个百分点，财政收入可增加230亿元人民币;</p><p>中国债券收益率下降，提高了即时现金回报的吸引力；在投资组合中减持股票的国内机构投资者对稳定收入的可能结构性需求；</p><p>更多以股息为导向的 ETF 已经筹集，从而增加了对高收益股票的需求。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛A港股2025重磅策略展望：内资将掌握定价权！短期超配先A后H，行业抓住消费股！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛A港股2025重磅策略展望：内资将掌握定价权！短期超配先A后H，行业抓住消费股！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-22 13:38 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3734794><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛认为，在政策刺激、企业盈利改善、公司回购提升等多项利好共同作用下，中国股市明年有望反弹，2025年MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数将分别上涨15%和13%。短期内高盛更加青睐A股。分析师认为，相比港股，A股对于政策放松和个人投资资金流的敏感性更好。而受海外因素及国内政策落地影响，明年一季度后才是配置港股更好的时间点。板块方面，分析师建议投资者重点关注消费领域、新兴市场出口商、特定新技术以及股东...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3734794\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58035caf274b0145bdae98c22e20f8e0","relate_stocks":{"LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","HSCEI":"国企指数","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3734794","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2485074484","content_text":"高盛认为，在政策刺激、企业盈利改善、公司回购提升等多项利好共同作用下，中国股市明年有望反弹，2025年MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数将分别上涨15%和13%。短期内高盛更加青睐A股。分析师认为，相比港股，A股对于政策放松和个人投资资金流的敏感性更好。而受海外因素及国内政策落地影响，明年一季度后才是配置港股更好的时间点。板块方面，分析师建议投资者重点关注消费领域、新兴市场出口商、特定新技术以及股东回报策略等主题。“最极端风险情景已被排除”高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津(Kinger Lau)团队在11月18日的年度策略报告中表示，在政策刺激下，国内明年消费和部分投资领域有望获得增长。受益于更有针对性的财政支出和消费补贴、服务业恢复及金融资产价格上涨带来的正向财富效应，消费增长有望从今年的3.8%反弹到明年的5%。高盛表示，自9月政治局会议以来，市场最极端风险情景已被排除：正如9月简报中传达的那样，政策目标已经从遏制风险转向维护增长。政策应对措施以一揽子形式进行协调和交付，而非零散的方式。政策越来越注重需求侧措施，因此政策的乘数效应可能更偏向国内，外部溢出效应较低。刺激措施由中央政府和中央银行主导和发起；为提振股市采取了前所未有的创新举措。高盛认为，目前投资者已从政策“预期阶段”过渡到“确认阶段”，这意味需要看到政策细节才能进一步提升信心。分析师预计明年将进一步放宽货币政策，包括降准和降息，财政赤字将继续扩张以支持房地产去库存、地方政府债务置换、银行资本重组和刺激消费投资。财政赤字扩大对企业盈利也有带动作用。高盛估算，每增加1万亿元的财政赤字（相当于GDP的0.8%），可能会推动次年EPS增长2个百分点。在市场关注的出口问题上，高盛目前预计2025出口量将在2024年高基数的基础上基本持平，对其他国家的出口增长将抵消对美出口的不利影响。从经济主题来看，高盛认为在政策支持下，消费和基础设施可能会成为市场利润的关键贡献者，而随着低基数效应开始发挥作用，房地产市场对盈利的拖累可能会有所缓和。在某些情景下，政策驱动的供给侧改革也可以通过更健康的利润率使得诸如汽车、太阳能和其他一些资本密集型行业受益。外资影响减弱，内资将扮演主导地位高盛认为，考虑到外资目前对中国市场依然处于低配状态，内资明年对于市场的影响力可能进一步扩大。在2020年后，海外对冲基金在中国市场上的配置经历了几轮快速波动，当前净多头/总敞口分别为7.1%/5.6%，处于5年平均值的11%/22%分位数，反映其仍以短期机会为导向。在长线资金方面，全球3.5万亿美元的共同基金资产对中国股票的配置同样不足。但受益于45万亿元的家庭存款盈余和监管支持，国内投资者有较大潜力增加股票配置。国家队约占A股市值的5.4%，未来可能通过国家稳定基金进一步加大参与力度。上市公司回购也将利好股市。2024年第三季度，中国A股和H股市场的股票回购额均创历史新高，分别达到230亿美元。高盛预测2025年回购总额将接近翻倍，达到700亿美元。这主要得益于政策推动（央行3000亿元再贷款支持）、稳健的经营现金流，以及仍然较高的权益资本成本。短期更看好A股，港股要等一季度末高盛认为，A股和港股在全球股票范围内还处于较低的估值水平，吸引力还是非常大的。目前明晟中国指数（MSCI China）相对于发达市场（DM）和除中国外的新兴市场（EM e-China）股票分别有46%和23%的折价，尽管明年盈利增长情况相近甚至更好，但这两个折价水平均处于各自历史范围的高位。高盛预计，政策引发的资金流调整可能在2025年加速，企业、境内个人投资者、南向资金和政府类投资机构可能加大股市持仓。明年MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数将分别上涨15%和13%，每股盈利（EPS）的增长分别为7%和10%左右。由于对政策宽松更敏感，且受外部风险的影响较小，高盛短期内更偏向A股。高盛预计港股的交易改善需要等到2025年第一季度末，届时海外风险和国内政策宽松的清晰度可能会更加明确。行业配置：跟着消费者走在行业配置方面，高盛建议投资者重点关注，政府消费、新兴市场出口商、精选新科技及股东回报等主题。高盛表示，在政策驱动下，预计政府消费支出将显著回升，受益领域包括汽车、零售/服务、医疗设备及基础设施项目。数字经济、绿色能源及智能制造等政府支持领域也值得重点关注。高盛特别强调，尽管高股息等关注股东回报的市场主题过去一年的已实现强劲的市场回报率，但这一主题2025年依然值得投资者关注：目前已有明确的政策和交付方式，以提高股东回报；上市公司向股东返还现金的能力看起来很有希望。近50%的上市国有企业市值由政府相关实体持有，派息率每上升1个百分点，财政收入可增加230亿元人民币;中国债券收益率下降，提高了即时现金回报的吸引力；在投资组合中减持股票的国内机构投资者对稳定收入的可能结构性需求；更多以股息为导向的 ETF 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