EthanShawn的个人主页 - 老虎社区

EthanShawn

EthanShawn

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2021-12-16

Good

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2021-07-26

人被喷没了

@少帅Pro:聊两句今晚的乒乓球混双

2021-06-30

Sharing

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2021-06-22

王者归来

Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>

2021-06-21

Sharing

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2021-06-20

Nice article

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2021-06-19

Sharing

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2021-06-18

Sharing is caring

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2021-06-17

重点来了

Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅提高通胀预期，并且没有提及缩减通胀规模。</blockquote>

2021-06-16

Sharing

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2021-06-16

好文分享

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2021-06-16

看看你会做什么决定？

Here’s what the market wants — and doesn’t want — to hear from Powell at this week’s Fed meeting<blockquote>以下是市场在本周美联储会议上希望和不希望听到鲍威尔的言论</blockquote>

2021-06-16

好文分享

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2021-06-14

Sharing is caring

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2021-06-14

Nice

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2021-06-12

你该如何选择？

Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited<blockquote>观点：股票投资者现在已经走到了悬崖边——选择有限</blockquote>

2021-06-10

[捂脸]

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2021-06-08

For sharing

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2021-06-07

To the moon!!

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2021-06-05

坚持就会看到希望？

Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。</li><li>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。</li><li>从技术分析的角度来看，股价正在遵循上升的三角形模式，并正朝着137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News 公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 的股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。由基本面支撑的出色回报。特别是，我想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone手机占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务成熟（增长率低）；其次，它过去是（现在仍然是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，庞大的iPhone用户基础（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果已经能够有效地实现其收入来源的多元化，目前呈现以下结构。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看这些部分中的每一个：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>于二零一六年至二零二零年，iPhone分部以0.20%的复合年增长率增长，并由占总销售额的63.4%（二零一六年）变为51%（「TTM」）。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）iPhone细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%，这得益于具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列，以及来自中国的有趣数据。我相信向5G的过渡将是这一细分市场增长的主要驱动力。通过这种方式，我想报告第二季度盈利看涨期权的部分成绩单。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户正在加速采用iPhone 12和5G作为其业务未来的关键平台。例如，达美航空公司正在将 iPhone 12 和 5G 连接交到空乘人员手中，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的 Openreach 已开始为数万名现场工程师配备 iPhone 12，以加快他们向全国各地家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到仅30秒，这主要是通过从PC站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高了他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2、iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad 细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016 年为 9.6%，而 TTM 为 9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。以下是iPad细分市场过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了新一代iPad的很多实现方式。不过，我也不得不承认，在同一片海里游泳的还有一个大玩家，新款2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一个观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（而目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. Mac</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少保持不变，2016年为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>由M1芯片驱动的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我个人尝试了新一代Mac电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常清楚如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部以28.78%的复合年增长率增长，并从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占总销售额的10.8%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果手表在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车，救了你的命，不错吧？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我看不到后者的市场，但我可能错了）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部以21.9%的复合年增长率增长，并由二零一六年占总销售额的11.3%变为占总销售额的18.6%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。新服务苹果电视+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信未来服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度盈利看涨期权中推断出的一个有趣的部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基数持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店的交易账户和付费账户数量在 9 月份季度创下历史新高，我们每个地区的付费账户都增长了两位数。第三，付费订阅量连续增长超过3500万，我们现在平台上的所有服务的付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。公允价值是一个经过算法调整的价值，考虑了基本面和技术面的不同因素（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务状况，因为我将R&amp;D费用资本化，摊销年限为3年。我不认为在苹果的情况下，R&amp;D是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本案例场景</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本案例场景。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G转型驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 Mac细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 12%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 7.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况场景</i>: 生意火爆!在最佳情况下，我再次将我为基本情况描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，然而，除此之外，我还看到了中国更大的市场渗透率。在过去5年中，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额跃升了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 14%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 9.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏情况</i>:嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权喜欢“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长率略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设第一年的增长率为10%，第二年至第五年的CAGR为3.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果带着苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下都分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>灵敏度分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本案例场景的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形模式。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价前进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果出现这种情况，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，按原样理解）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够提前几年发现问题并解决问题。通过观察在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以说该股票目前被高估了，但没有那么高。对于关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代表。考虑到这一点，我认为没有理由恐慌，然而，我也确实看到了市场即将出现的调整。许多技术指标和基本面指标都告诉我，目前市场过于沉重（即使标准普尔500可能会走高，也许在4400点区域）。总之，我不打算平掉我的全部苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平掉其中的 60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。</li><li>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。</li><li>从技术分析的角度来看，股价正在遵循上升的三角形模式，并正朝着137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News 公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 的股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。由基本面支撑的出色回报。特别是，我想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone手机占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务成熟（增长率低）；其次，它过去是（现在仍然是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，庞大的iPhone用户基础（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果已经能够有效地实现其收入来源的多元化，目前呈现以下结构。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看这些部分中的每一个：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>于二零一六年至二零二零年，iPhone分部以0.20%的复合年增长率增长，并由占总销售额的63.4%（二零一六年）变为51%（「TTM」）。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）iPhone细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%，这得益于具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列，以及来自中国的有趣数据。我相信向5G的过渡将是这一细分市场增长的主要驱动力。通过这种方式，我想报告第二季度盈利看涨期权的部分成绩单。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户正在加速采用iPhone 12和5G作为其业务未来的关键平台。例如，达美航空公司正在将 iPhone 12 和 5G 连接交到空乘人员手中，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的 Openreach 已开始为数万名现场工程师配备 iPhone 12，以加快他们向全国各地家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到仅30秒，这主要是通过从PC站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高了他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2、iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad 细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016 年为 9.6%，而 TTM 为 9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。以下是iPad细分市场过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了新一代iPad的很多实现方式。不过，我也不得不承认，在同一片海里游泳的还有一个大玩家，新款2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一个观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（而目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. Mac</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少保持不变，2016年为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>由M1芯片驱动的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我个人尝试了新一代Mac电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常清楚如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部以28.78%的复合年增长率增长，并从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占总销售额的10.8%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果手表在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车，救了你的命，不错吧？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我看不到后者的市场，但我可能错了）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部以21.9%的复合年增长率增长，并由二零一六年占总销售额的11.3%变为占总销售额的18.6%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。新服务苹果电视+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信未来服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度盈利看涨期权中推断出的一个有趣的部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基数持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店的交易账户和付费账户数量在 9 月份季度创下历史新高，我们每个地区的付费账户都增长了两位数。第三，付费订阅量连续增长超过3500万，我们现在平台上的所有服务的付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。公允价值是一个经过算法调整的价值，考虑了基本面和技术面的不同因素（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务状况，因为我将R&amp;D费用资本化，摊销年限为3年。我不认为在苹果的情况下，R&amp;D是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本案例场景</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本案例场景。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G转型驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 Mac细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 12%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 7.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况场景</i>: 生意火爆!在最佳情况下，我再次将我为基本情况描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，然而，除此之外，我还看到了中国更大的市场渗透率。在过去5年中，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额跃升了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 14%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 9.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏情况</i>:嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权喜欢“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长率略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设第一年的增长率为10%，第二年至第五年的CAGR为3.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果带着苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下都分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>灵敏度分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本案例场景的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形模式。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价前进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果出现这种情况，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，按原样理解）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够提前几年发现问题并解决问题。通过观察在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以说该股票目前被高估了，但没有那么高。对于关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代表。考虑到这一点，我认为没有理由恐慌，然而，我也确实看到了市场即将出现的调整。许多技术指标和基本面指标都告诉我，目前市场过于沉重（即使标准普尔500可能会走高，也许在4400点区域）。总之，我不打算平掉我的全部苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平掉其中的 60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164445646,"gmtCreate":1624234782185,"gmtModify":1631892912493,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sharing","listText":"Sharing","text":"Sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164445646","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165595848,"gmtCreate":1624150477984,"gmtModify":1631892912496,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice article","listText":"Nice article","text":"Nice article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165595848","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162817317,"gmtCreate":1624056363539,"gmtModify":1631892912499,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sharing","listText":"Sharing","text":"Sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162817317","repostId":"1111305468","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168682260,"gmtCreate":1623974051750,"gmtModify":1631892912499,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sharing is caring","listText":"Sharing is caring","text":"Sharing is caring","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168682260","repostId":"2143979397","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163626080,"gmtCreate":1623883904040,"gmtModify":1631892912510,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"重点来了","listText":"重点来了","text":"重点来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163626080","repostId":"1170150919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170150919","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623866564,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1170150919?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 02:02","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅提高通胀预期，并且没有提及缩减通胀规模。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170150919","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.Nine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and finan","content":"<p>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.</p><p><blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅提高通胀预期，并且没有提及缩减通胀规模。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上调通胀预期并提前下一次加息时间后，美国股市周三跌至盘中低点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&amp;P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌320点。标普500在前一交易日创下历史新高后下跌 0.7%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数抹去了早些时候的涨幅，下跌 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Nine out of 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11 个板块中有 9 个出现亏损，其中通信服务和金融板块领跌。</blockquote></p><p> Economic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.</p><p><blockquote>经济重启为大盘提供了一些支撑。主要航空股美国航空、美联航和达美航空均走高。在 Wolfe Research 升级后，皇家加勒比和嘉年华的股价均上涨了 2%。</blockquote></p><p> The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.</p><p><blockquote>制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会表示，最早可能在 2023 年加息，此前该委员会在 3 月份表示至少在 2024 年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"</p><p><blockquote>美联储还将总体通胀预期上调至3.4%，比3月份的预测高出整整一个百分点，会后声明继续表示通胀压力是“暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于美国东部时间下午 2:30 举行新闻发布会。</blockquote></p><p> The meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀正在升温，5 月份生产者价格以近 11 年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括Paul Tudor Jones在内的一些人前往看涨期权，要求央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>Commonwealth Financial Network 首席信息官布拉德·麦克米伦 (Brad McMillan) 表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是否保持紧缩政策，还是承认通胀正在上升以及美联储需要紧缩政策。”“由于美联储有双重任务——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该继续关注失业，而不是通胀。”</blockquote></p><p> Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>财政部长珍妮特·耶伦周三在参议院财政委员会作证时表示，从长远来看，价格上涨的压力不应持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> \"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"</p><p><blockquote>耶伦说：“我之前说过，我看到了重要的暂时影响，我预计这不会是永久性的。”“但我们继续非常仔细地监控通胀数据，重要的是，对于长期通胀前景，我们认为大多数衡量标准的通胀预期……都是稳固的。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价已从历史高点下跌超过10%，周二跌入回调区域。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅提高通胀预期，并且没有提及缩减通胀规模。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅提高通胀预期，并且没有提及缩减通胀规模。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 02:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.</p><p><blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅提高通胀预期，并且没有提及缩减通胀规模。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上调通胀预期并提前下一次加息时间后，美国股市周三跌至盘中低点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&amp;P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌320点。标普500在前一交易日创下历史新高后下跌 0.7%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数抹去了早些时候的涨幅，下跌 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Nine out of 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11 个板块中有 9 个出现亏损，其中通信服务和金融板块领跌。</blockquote></p><p> Economic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.</p><p><blockquote>经济重启为大盘提供了一些支撑。主要航空股美国航空、美联航和达美航空均走高。在 Wolfe Research 升级后，皇家加勒比和嘉年华的股价均上涨了 2%。</blockquote></p><p> The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.</p><p><blockquote>制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会表示，最早可能在 2023 年加息，此前该委员会在 3 月份表示至少在 2024 年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"</p><p><blockquote>美联储还将总体通胀预期上调至3.4%，比3月份的预测高出整整一个百分点，会后声明继续表示通胀压力是“暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于美国东部时间下午 2:30 举行新闻发布会。</blockquote></p><p> The meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀正在升温，5 月份生产者价格以近 11 年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括Paul Tudor Jones在内的一些人前往看涨期权，要求央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>Commonwealth Financial Network 首席信息官布拉德·麦克米伦 (Brad McMillan) 表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是否保持紧缩政策，还是承认通胀正在上升以及美联储需要紧缩政策。”“由于美联储有双重任务——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该继续关注失业，而不是通胀。”</blockquote></p><p> Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>财政部长珍妮特·耶伦周三在参议院财政委员会作证时表示，从长远来看，价格上涨的压力不应持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> \"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"</p><p><blockquote>耶伦说：“我之前说过，我看到了重要的暂时影响，我预计这不会是永久性的。”“但我们继续非常仔细地监控通胀数据，重要的是，对于长期通胀前景，我们认为大多数衡量标准的通胀预期……都是稳固的。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价已从历史高点下跌超过10%，周二跌入回调区域。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170150919","content_text":"Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.\nU.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.\nNine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.\nEconomic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.\nThe policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.\nThe Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"\nChairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.\nThe meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.\nThe central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.\n\"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"\nTreasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.\n\"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"\nOn Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160714439,"gmtCreate":1623806517021,"gmtModify":1631892912507,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sharing","listText":"Sharing","text":"Sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160714439","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160866392,"gmtCreate":1623781089616,"gmtModify":1631892912513,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"好文分享","listText":"好文分享","text":"好文分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160866392","repostId":"2143178756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160869400,"gmtCreate":1623780812000,"gmtModify":1634028308702,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"看看你会做什么决定？","listText":"看看你会做什么决定？","text":"看看你会做什么决定？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160869400","repostId":"2142788371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142788371","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623627985,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2142788371?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s what the market wants — and doesn’t want — to hear from Powell at this week’s Fed meeting<blockquote>以下是市场在本周美联储会议上希望和不希望听到鲍威尔的言论</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142788371","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"All eyes on the Fed!\n\"Alas, poor inflation! I knew him, Horatio.\" MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/GET","content":"<p>All eyes on the Fed!</p><p><blockquote>所有的目光都集中在美联储身上!</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c83a98ead1e0406f6e21bde6e1f550\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"><span>\"Alas, poor inflation! I knew him, Horatio.\" MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/GETTY IMAGES, EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>“唉，可怜的通货膨胀!我认识他，霍雷肖。”MARKETWATCH 照片插图/GETTY IMAGES，EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You couldn’t fault Wall Street for envisaging a bit of Hamlet in Jerome Powell at the Federal Open Market Committee’s June policy meeting this coming week:</p><p><blockquote>在下周举行的联邦公开市场委员会 6 月份政策会议上，华尔街设想了杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的一点哈姆雷特（Hamlet）：</blockquote></p><p> Transitory, or not transitory?</p><p><blockquote>短暂的，还是不短暂的？</blockquote></p><p> Therein lies the question that the interest rate-setting Fed committee needs to answer for financial markets on Wednesday, at the conclusion of the FOMC’s two-day gathering.</p><p><blockquote>这就是美联储利率制定委员会周三在为期两天的联邦公开市场委员会会议结束时需要为金融市场回答的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous inflation or to take arms against a sea of troubles, as Hamlet might have said if he had been a central bank governor.</p><p><blockquote>如果哈姆雷特是央行行长，他可能会说的那样，无论是忍受令人发指的通货膨胀的箭矢，还是拿起武器对抗麻烦的海洋，哪个更高尚。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one is expecting fireworks at this coming meeting but it could still proof a pivotal point for stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人预计即将到来的会议会有烟火，但它仍然可能证明股票和债券的关键点。</blockquote></p><p> That is especially true with the S&amp;P 500 index,the Dow Jones Industrial Average,and the Nasdaq Composite Index,hovering at, or near, record closing highs.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数尤其如此，它们徘徊在或接近历史收盘高点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed meeting comes against the backdrop of growing evidence of pricing pressures building in the economy as it recovers from the COVID pandemic of the past year and vaccination rollouts allow businesses to return to some semblance of normality.</p><p><blockquote>美联储会议召开的背景是，越来越多的证据表明，随着经济从去年的新冠疫情中复苏，定价压力正在加大，疫苗接种的推出使企业恢复了某种正常状态。</blockquote></p><p> Last Thursday’s&nbsp;consumer-price index report&nbsp;from the U.S. Labor Department showed that the cost of living surged in May and drove the&nbsp;pace of inflation&nbsp;to a 13-year high of 5%, reflecting a broad increase in prices confronting Americans.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部上周四发布的消费者价格指数报告显示，5 月份生活成本飙升，将通胀率推至 5% 的 13 年来新高，反映出美国人面临的物价普遍上涨。</blockquote></p><p> “The critical question now is whether this elevated rate of inflation is ‘transitory’ or whether higher prices risk becoming psychologically entrenched,” wrote Matt Weller, global head of market research at Forex.com in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“Forex.com 全球市场研究主管马特-韦勒（Matt Weller）在周五的一份研究报告中写道：”现在的关键问题是，通货膨胀率的上升是'暂时的'，还是物价上涨有可能在心理上根深蒂固。</blockquote></p><p> The fixed-income market may already have had its say on inflation, with the yields on the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;and the 30-year Treasury bond&nbsp;hanging around their lowest levels since at least early March.</p><p><blockquote>固定收益市场可能已经对通胀有了发言权，10年期国债和30年期国债收益率徘徊在至少3月初以来的最低水平附近。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury and stock-market investors are viewing the surge in inflation as fostered by supply chain distortions as consumers splurge after the pandemic, along with statistical base effects as last year’s falling prices drop out of the annual calculations, and therefore likely to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>美国国债和股市投资者认为，通胀飙升是由于大流行病过后消费者挥霍无度，导致供应链扭曲，以及去年物价下跌从年度计算中剔除的统计基数效应，因此很可能转瞬即逝。</blockquote></p><p> Is isn’t clear exactly however what transitory means — months, years ? How long are elevated levels of inflation to be tolerated before market participants and the Fed lose patience with inflation that undermines asset prices?</p><p><blockquote>然而，暂时性究竟是什么意思--几个月、几年？在市场参与者和美联储对破坏资产价格的通胀失去耐心之前，还要容忍高通胀水平多久？</blockquote></p><p> “Going forward to the end of 2021 and into 2022, policy makers continue to expect inflation to subside back down nearer their 2% objective, is a message the Committee is likely to reiterate at next week’s meeting,” wrote Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>“展望 2021 年底和 2022 年，政策制定者继续预计通胀率将回落至接近 2% 的目标，委员会可能会在下周的会议上重申这一信息，”Stifel 首席经济学家林赛-皮耶扎（Lindsey Piegza）在周五的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> “That being said, the U.S. economy is clearly gaining momentum, with the labor market adding more than 500,000 jobs a month. Therefore, while no policy adjustment is expected in June, nor an announcement of a timeline for an eventual adjustment to policy, at least some Fed members are expected to push for a discussion in the coming months regarding an eventual rollback of emergency measures,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管如此，美国经济的势头显然正在增强，劳动力市场每月新增就业岗位超过 50 万个。因此，虽然预计 6 月份不会进行政策调整，也不会宣布最终调整政策的时间表，但预计至少一些美联储成员将在未来几个月内推动讨论最终撤销紧急措施的问题，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> Some traders, analysts and economists are betting the Fed will aim to articulate the view that the tapering of its $120 billion a month purchase of assets, implemented during the worst of the pandemic, will begin by towards the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>一些交易员、分析师和经济学家押注，美联储将致力于阐明这样一种观点，即在疫情最严重时期实施的每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买将于 2021 年底开始缩减。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed may talk about talking about tapering in June and by August or September begin the work toward a roll back.</p><p><blockquote>美联储可能会在6月份讨论缩减规模，并在8月或9月开始缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> In the face of rising inflation, the timing of any tapering looks tricky for the U.S. central bank since the recovery in the labor market still looks shaky, relative to the the demand for workers, and is reflected in the&nbsp;weaker-than-expected May nonfarm payrolls report&nbsp;and the job openings data from last week&nbsp;which hit a record 9.3 million.</p><p><blockquote>面对不断上升的通胀，美国央行任何缩减规模的时机看起来都很棘手，因为相对于工人需求，劳动力市场的复苏看起来仍然不稳定，这反映在弱于预期的5月份非农就业报告和上周的职位空缺数据中。创纪录的930万个。</blockquote></p><p> Lawrence Gillum, fixed-income strategist for LPL Financial, said that the key thing the market wants to here is the timing of the Fed’s tapering. He also noted the tapering of the central bank’s $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities in particular will be important because the housing market is widely viewed as overheated.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial 的固定收益策略师劳伦斯-吉勒姆（Lawrence Gillum）说，市场希望看到的关键在于美联储缩减规模的时机。他还指出，中央银行缩减 400 亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券尤为重要，因为人们普遍认为房地产市场过热。</blockquote></p><p> “The main thing we’d like to hear next week is how and when the Fed plans to reduce its bond purchase programs,” Gillum said.</p><p><blockquote>“吉勒姆说：”下周我们最希望听到的是美联储计划如何以及何时减少债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> “Additionally, why the Fed continues to buy $40 billion in mortgage securities every month when the housing market, by all accounts, doesn’t need that support. Will we get that clarity? Probably not,” he offered.</p><p><blockquote>“此外，为什么美联储每月继续购买 400 亿美元的抵押贷款证券，而从各方面来看，房地产市场并不需要这种支持？我们会明白吗？可能不会，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday report, said that in that context, he still expects policy makers to convey a go-slow approach to any scaling back of monetary accommodation.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)美国高级经济学家安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunter)在周五的一份报告中表示，在这种背景下，他仍然预计政策制定者将对任何缩减货币宽松措施采取缓慢的态度。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “While we suspect that Fed officials may finally begin ‘talking about talking about’ tapering their asset purchases at next week’s&nbsp;FOMC meeting, they are likely to emphasize that the economy is still some way from making ‘substantial further progress’ towards their goals,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”虽然我们怀疑美联储官员可能最终会在下周的联邦公开市场委员会会议上开始'谈论'缩减资产购买规模，但他们很可能会强调，经济距离实现他们的目标'取得实质性进一步进展'还有一段距离。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Peter Essele, head of investment management for Commonwealth Financial Network&nbsp;said the market may need to hear more dovishness from Fed officials, even as they circumnavigate the notion of scaling back easy-money policies.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，联邦金融网络投资管理主管彼得·埃塞尔表示，市场可能需要听到美联储官员更多鸽派言论，即使他们绕过缩减宽松货币政策的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “Market participants are clearly expecting a dovish tone from the Fed next week, as evidenced by the recent path of interest rates,” Essele told MarketWatch in emailed comments.</p><p><blockquote>“埃塞尔在电子邮件评论中告诉 MarketWatch：”市场参与者显然预计美联储下周将采取鸽派基调，最近的利率走势就证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect the Fed will keep its foot on the accommodative pedal next week, which won’t change until inflation is no longer transitory and the economy is back to full employment,” Essele said.</p><p><blockquote>“埃塞尔说：”我们预计美联储下周将继续采取宽松政策，在通胀不再是暂时性的、经济恢复充分就业之前，这一政策不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> “Until then, Treasury rates should remain range-bound on the long end and anchored on the short end, offering bond investors little to worry about in the near term,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”在此之前，国债利率应保持在长端区间，短端锚定，债券投资者在短期内无需担心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else is on investors’ radar?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者还关注什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the only other main item on the docket for next week is U.S. May retail sales on Tuesday, while investors continue to watch negotiations between the Biden administration and Republicans on an infrastructure spending plan, given it has implications for economic growth and debt issuance.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，下周唯一的另一个主要项目是周二的美国5月份零售销售，而投资者继续关注拜登政府和共和党人之间关于基础设施支出计划的谈判，因为该计划对经济增长和债务发行有影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s what the market wants — and doesn’t want — to hear from Powell at this week’s Fed meeting<blockquote>以下是市场在本周美联储会议上希望和不希望听到鲍威尔的言论</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s what the market wants — and doesn’t want — to hear from Powell at this week’s Fed meeting<blockquote>以下是市场在本周美联储会议上希望和不希望听到鲍威尔的言论</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 07:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>All eyes on the Fed!</p><p><blockquote>所有的目光都集中在美联储身上!</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c83a98ead1e0406f6e21bde6e1f550\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"><span>\"Alas, poor inflation! I knew him, Horatio.\" MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/GETTY IMAGES, EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>“唉，可怜的通货膨胀!我认识他，霍雷肖。”MARKETWATCH 照片插图/GETTY IMAGES，EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You couldn’t fault Wall Street for envisaging a bit of Hamlet in Jerome Powell at the Federal Open Market Committee’s June policy meeting this coming week:</p><p><blockquote>在下周举行的联邦公开市场委员会 6 月份政策会议上，华尔街设想了杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的一点哈姆雷特（Hamlet）：</blockquote></p><p> Transitory, or not transitory?</p><p><blockquote>短暂的，还是不短暂的？</blockquote></p><p> Therein lies the question that the interest rate-setting Fed committee needs to answer for financial markets on Wednesday, at the conclusion of the FOMC’s two-day gathering.</p><p><blockquote>这就是美联储利率制定委员会周三在为期两天的联邦公开市场委员会会议结束时需要为金融市场回答的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous inflation or to take arms against a sea of troubles, as Hamlet might have said if he had been a central bank governor.</p><p><blockquote>如果哈姆雷特是央行行长，他可能会说的那样，无论是忍受令人发指的通货膨胀的箭矢，还是拿起武器对抗麻烦的海洋，哪个更高尚。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one is expecting fireworks at this coming meeting but it could still proof a pivotal point for stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人预计即将到来的会议会有烟火，但它仍然可能证明股票和债券的关键点。</blockquote></p><p> That is especially true with the S&amp;P 500 index,the Dow Jones Industrial Average,and the Nasdaq Composite Index,hovering at, or near, record closing highs.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数尤其如此，它们徘徊在或接近历史收盘高点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed meeting comes against the backdrop of growing evidence of pricing pressures building in the economy as it recovers from the COVID pandemic of the past year and vaccination rollouts allow businesses to return to some semblance of normality.</p><p><blockquote>美联储会议召开的背景是，越来越多的证据表明，随着经济从去年的新冠疫情中复苏，定价压力正在加大，疫苗接种的推出使企业恢复了某种正常状态。</blockquote></p><p> Last Thursday’s&nbsp;consumer-price index report&nbsp;from the U.S. Labor Department showed that the cost of living surged in May and drove the&nbsp;pace of inflation&nbsp;to a 13-year high of 5%, reflecting a broad increase in prices confronting Americans.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部上周四发布的消费者价格指数报告显示，5 月份生活成本飙升，将通胀率推至 5% 的 13 年来新高，反映出美国人面临的物价普遍上涨。</blockquote></p><p> “The critical question now is whether this elevated rate of inflation is ‘transitory’ or whether higher prices risk becoming psychologically entrenched,” wrote Matt Weller, global head of market research at Forex.com in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“Forex.com 全球市场研究主管马特-韦勒（Matt Weller）在周五的一份研究报告中写道：”现在的关键问题是，通货膨胀率的上升是'暂时的'，还是物价上涨有可能在心理上根深蒂固。</blockquote></p><p> The fixed-income market may already have had its say on inflation, with the yields on the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;and the 30-year Treasury bond&nbsp;hanging around their lowest levels since at least early March.</p><p><blockquote>固定收益市场可能已经对通胀有了发言权，10年期国债和30年期国债收益率徘徊在至少3月初以来的最低水平附近。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury and stock-market investors are viewing the surge in inflation as fostered by supply chain distortions as consumers splurge after the pandemic, along with statistical base effects as last year’s falling prices drop out of the annual calculations, and therefore likely to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>美国国债和股市投资者认为，通胀飙升是由于大流行病过后消费者挥霍无度，导致供应链扭曲，以及去年物价下跌从年度计算中剔除的统计基数效应，因此很可能转瞬即逝。</blockquote></p><p> Is isn’t clear exactly however what transitory means — months, years ? How long are elevated levels of inflation to be tolerated before market participants and the Fed lose patience with inflation that undermines asset prices?</p><p><blockquote>然而，暂时性究竟是什么意思--几个月、几年？在市场参与者和美联储对破坏资产价格的通胀失去耐心之前，还要容忍高通胀水平多久？</blockquote></p><p> “Going forward to the end of 2021 and into 2022, policy makers continue to expect inflation to subside back down nearer their 2% objective, is a message the Committee is likely to reiterate at next week’s meeting,” wrote Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>“展望 2021 年底和 2022 年，政策制定者继续预计通胀率将回落至接近 2% 的目标，委员会可能会在下周的会议上重申这一信息，”Stifel 首席经济学家林赛-皮耶扎（Lindsey Piegza）在周五的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> “That being said, the U.S. economy is clearly gaining momentum, with the labor market adding more than 500,000 jobs a month. Therefore, while no policy adjustment is expected in June, nor an announcement of a timeline for an eventual adjustment to policy, at least some Fed members are expected to push for a discussion in the coming months regarding an eventual rollback of emergency measures,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管如此，美国经济的势头显然正在增强，劳动力市场每月新增就业岗位超过 50 万个。因此，虽然预计 6 月份不会进行政策调整，也不会宣布最终调整政策的时间表，但预计至少一些美联储成员将在未来几个月内推动讨论最终撤销紧急措施的问题，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> Some traders, analysts and economists are betting the Fed will aim to articulate the view that the tapering of its $120 billion a month purchase of assets, implemented during the worst of the pandemic, will begin by towards the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>一些交易员、分析师和经济学家押注，美联储将致力于阐明这样一种观点，即在疫情最严重时期实施的每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买将于 2021 年底开始缩减。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed may talk about talking about tapering in June and by August or September begin the work toward a roll back.</p><p><blockquote>美联储可能会在6月份讨论缩减规模，并在8月或9月开始缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> In the face of rising inflation, the timing of any tapering looks tricky for the U.S. central bank since the recovery in the labor market still looks shaky, relative to the the demand for workers, and is reflected in the&nbsp;weaker-than-expected May nonfarm payrolls report&nbsp;and the job openings data from last week&nbsp;which hit a record 9.3 million.</p><p><blockquote>面对不断上升的通胀，美国央行任何缩减规模的时机看起来都很棘手，因为相对于工人需求，劳动力市场的复苏看起来仍然不稳定，这反映在弱于预期的5月份非农就业报告和上周的职位空缺数据中。创纪录的930万个。</blockquote></p><p> Lawrence Gillum, fixed-income strategist for LPL Financial, said that the key thing the market wants to here is the timing of the Fed’s tapering. He also noted the tapering of the central bank’s $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities in particular will be important because the housing market is widely viewed as overheated.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial 的固定收益策略师劳伦斯-吉勒姆（Lawrence Gillum）说，市场希望看到的关键在于美联储缩减规模的时机。他还指出，中央银行缩减 400 亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券尤为重要，因为人们普遍认为房地产市场过热。</blockquote></p><p> “The main thing we’d like to hear next week is how and when the Fed plans to reduce its bond purchase programs,” Gillum said.</p><p><blockquote>“吉勒姆说：”下周我们最希望听到的是美联储计划如何以及何时减少债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> “Additionally, why the Fed continues to buy $40 billion in mortgage securities every month when the housing market, by all accounts, doesn’t need that support. Will we get that clarity? Probably not,” he offered.</p><p><blockquote>“此外，为什么美联储每月继续购买 400 亿美元的抵押贷款证券，而从各方面来看，房地产市场并不需要这种支持？我们会明白吗？可能不会，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday report, said that in that context, he still expects policy makers to convey a go-slow approach to any scaling back of monetary accommodation.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)美国高级经济学家安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunter)在周五的一份报告中表示，在这种背景下，他仍然预计政策制定者将对任何缩减货币宽松措施采取缓慢的态度。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “While we suspect that Fed officials may finally begin ‘talking about talking about’ tapering their asset purchases at next week’s&nbsp;FOMC meeting, they are likely to emphasize that the economy is still some way from making ‘substantial further progress’ towards their goals,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”虽然我们怀疑美联储官员可能最终会在下周的联邦公开市场委员会会议上开始'谈论'缩减资产购买规模，但他们很可能会强调，经济距离实现他们的目标'取得实质性进一步进展'还有一段距离。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Peter Essele, head of investment management for Commonwealth Financial Network&nbsp;said the market may need to hear more dovishness from Fed officials, even as they circumnavigate the notion of scaling back easy-money policies.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，联邦金融网络投资管理主管彼得·埃塞尔表示，市场可能需要听到美联储官员更多鸽派言论，即使他们绕过缩减宽松货币政策的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “Market participants are clearly expecting a dovish tone from the Fed next week, as evidenced by the recent path of interest rates,” Essele told MarketWatch in emailed comments.</p><p><blockquote>“埃塞尔在电子邮件评论中告诉 MarketWatch：”市场参与者显然预计美联储下周将采取鸽派基调，最近的利率走势就证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect the Fed will keep its foot on the accommodative pedal next week, which won’t change until inflation is no longer transitory and the economy is back to full employment,” Essele said.</p><p><blockquote>“埃塞尔说：”我们预计美联储下周将继续采取宽松政策，在通胀不再是暂时性的、经济恢复充分就业之前，这一政策不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> “Until then, Treasury rates should remain range-bound on the long end and anchored on the short end, offering bond investors little to worry about in the near term,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”在此之前，国债利率应保持在长端区间，短端锚定，债券投资者在短期内无需担心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else is on investors’ radar?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者还关注什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the only other main item on the docket for next week is U.S. May retail sales on Tuesday, while investors continue to watch negotiations between the Biden administration and Republicans on an infrastructure spending plan, given it has implications for economic growth and debt issuance.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，下周唯一的另一个主要项目是周二的美国5月份零售销售，而投资者继续关注拜登政府和共和党人之间关于基础设施支出计划的谈判，因为该计划对经济增长和债务发行有影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-market-wants-and-doesnt-want-to-hear-from-powell-at-next-weeks-fed-meeting-11623452360?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-market-wants-and-doesnt-want-to-hear-from-powell-at-next-weeks-fed-meeting-11623452360?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142788371","content_text":"All eyes on the Fed!\n\"Alas, poor inflation! I knew him, Horatio.\" MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/GETTY IMAGES, EVERETT COLLECTION\nYou couldn’t fault Wall Street for envisaging a bit of Hamlet in Jerome Powell at the Federal Open Market Committee’s June policy meeting this coming week:\nTransitory, or not transitory?\nTherein lies the question that the interest rate-setting Fed committee needs to answer for financial markets on Wednesday, at the conclusion of the FOMC’s two-day gathering.\nWhether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous inflation or to take arms against a sea of troubles, as Hamlet might have said if he had been a central bank governor.\nOf course, no one is expecting fireworks at this coming meeting but it could still proof a pivotal point for stocks and bonds.\nThat is especially true with the S&P 500 index,the Dow Jones Industrial Average,and the Nasdaq Composite Index,hovering at, or near, record closing highs.\nThe Fed meeting comes against the backdrop of growing evidence of pricing pressures building in the economy as it recovers from the COVID pandemic of the past year and vaccination rollouts allow businesses to return to some semblance of normality.\nLast Thursday’s consumer-price index report from the U.S. Labor Department showed that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%, reflecting a broad increase in prices confronting Americans.\n“The critical question now is whether this elevated rate of inflation is ‘transitory’ or whether higher prices risk becoming psychologically entrenched,” wrote Matt Weller, global head of market research at Forex.com in a Friday research note.\nThe fixed-income market may already have had its say on inflation, with the yields on the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury bond hanging around their lowest levels since at least early March.\nTreasury and stock-market investors are viewing the surge in inflation as fostered by supply chain distortions as consumers splurge after the pandemic, along with statistical base effects as last year’s falling prices drop out of the annual calculations, and therefore likely to be fleeting.\nIs isn’t clear exactly however what transitory means — months, years ? How long are elevated levels of inflation to be tolerated before market participants and the Fed lose patience with inflation that undermines asset prices?\n“Going forward to the end of 2021 and into 2022, policy makers continue to expect inflation to subside back down nearer their 2% objective, is a message the Committee is likely to reiterate at next week’s meeting,” wrote Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel in a Friday note.\n“That being said, the U.S. economy is clearly gaining momentum, with the labor market adding more than 500,000 jobs a month. Therefore, while no policy adjustment is expected in June, nor an announcement of a timeline for an eventual adjustment to policy, at least some Fed members are expected to push for a discussion in the coming months regarding an eventual rollback of emergency measures,” she said.\nSome traders, analysts and economists are betting the Fed will aim to articulate the view that the tapering of its $120 billion a month purchase of assets, implemented during the worst of the pandemic, will begin by towards the end of 2021.\nThe Fed may talk about talking about tapering in June and by August or September begin the work toward a roll back.\nIn the face of rising inflation, the timing of any tapering looks tricky for the U.S. central bank since the recovery in the labor market still looks shaky, relative to the the demand for workers, and is reflected in the weaker-than-expected May nonfarm payrolls report and the job openings data from last week which hit a record 9.3 million.\nLawrence Gillum, fixed-income strategist for LPL Financial, said that the key thing the market wants to here is the timing of the Fed’s tapering. He also noted the tapering of the central bank’s $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities in particular will be important because the housing market is widely viewed as overheated.\n“The main thing we’d like to hear next week is how and when the Fed plans to reduce its bond purchase programs,” Gillum said.\n“Additionally, why the Fed continues to buy $40 billion in mortgage securities every month when the housing market, by all accounts, doesn’t need that support. Will we get that clarity? Probably not,” he offered.\nAndrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday report, said that in that context, he still expects policy makers to convey a go-slow approach to any scaling back of monetary accommodation.\n“While we suspect that Fed officials may finally begin ‘talking about talking about’ tapering their asset purchases at next week’s FOMC meeting, they are likely to emphasize that the economy is still some way from making ‘substantial further progress’ towards their goals,” he said.\nIndeed, Peter Essele, head of investment management for Commonwealth Financial Network said the market may need to hear more dovishness from Fed officials, even as they circumnavigate the notion of scaling back easy-money policies.\n“Market participants are clearly expecting a dovish tone from the Fed next week, as evidenced by the recent path of interest rates,” Essele told MarketWatch in emailed comments.\n“We expect the Fed will keep its foot on the accommodative pedal next week, which won’t change until inflation is no longer transitory and the economy is back to full employment,” Essele said.\n“Until then, Treasury rates should remain range-bound on the long end and anchored on the short end, offering bond investors little to worry about in the near term,” he said.\nWhat else is on investors’ radar?\nMeanwhile, the only other main item on the docket for next week is U.S. May retail sales on Tuesday, while investors continue to watch negotiations between the Biden administration and Republicans on an infrastructure spending plan, given it has implications for economic growth and debt issuance.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160887717,"gmtCreate":1623780653339,"gmtModify":1634028310298,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"好文分享","listText":"好文分享","text":"好文分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160887717","repostId":"1150591447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":185162509,"gmtCreate":1623637221401,"gmtModify":1634030846380,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sharing is caring","listText":"Sharing is caring","text":"Sharing is caring","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185162509","repostId":"1146430910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182455262,"gmtCreate":1623600801356,"gmtModify":1634031273498,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182455262","repostId":"1148565686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188536285,"gmtCreate":1623454272447,"gmtModify":1634033084902,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你该如何选择？","listText":"你该如何选择？","text":"你该如何选择？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188536285","repostId":"1198311684","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198311684","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623415805,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198311684?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited<blockquote>观点：股票投资者现在已经走到了悬崖边——选择有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198311684","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavir","content":"<p>  <b>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.</b>  The coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.</p><p><blockquote><b>基本面尚未适用于美国市场，但这种情况似乎即将改变。</b>冠状病毒大流行对投资者来说是极好的，但现在大多数人都意识到，股市的非凡表现并不是基于基本面，而基本面在一段时间前就已经不再重要了。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.</p><p><blockquote>央行一直在通过大量注入流动性和零利率来推高资产价格。消费和企业盈利是由巨额政府转移支付、财政刺激和行业支持支撑的。</blockquote></p><p> Will it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>会持续吗？人们普遍认为，大多数资产定价过高。价格最终是未来现金流的现值。当局操纵了贴现率，但改变由实体经济驱动的潜在长期现金流更加困难。由央行设计的低波动性也鼓励了旺盛的价格。在某个阶段，挥霍无度的政府赤字可能会通过缩减支出或增加税收来控制。这些政策也可能推高通货膨胀，需要收紧货币政策和提高利率。</blockquote></p><p> Currently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.</p><p><blockquote>当前的高股价使投资者面临突然调整的风险，即音乐椅游戏意外停止。鉴于几乎所有的收益都是价格而不是收入（股息、利息等）。），脆弱性加剧。金融体系的不稳定结构——高杠杆、影子银行、流动性不足、未解决的联系、跟随投资者的趋势上升——意味着任何问题都可能引发重大调整。</blockquote></p><p> Investors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的选择有限。你可以相信 “新常态 ”的永久性。然后，高风险资产投资是合理的，因为当局必须确保资产价格高企且不断上涨，主要是因为替代方案太可怕了，难以想象。这假设策略选项无限期地保持无限制。</blockquote></p><p> Or investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.</p><p><blockquote>或者，投资者可以依靠势头，本质上是凯恩斯所谓的投资选美理论，该理论预测了今天的 “迷因股票 ”。成功的投资需要投资者在所有评委中挑选出最受欢迎的面孔，而不是那些他们个人可能觉得最有吸引力的面孔。难点在于了解评委的想法，并在音乐停止前认清何时出售。</blockquote></p><p> Third, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.</p><p><blockquote>第三，投资者可以将资金存放在现金中。这意味着可能在很长一段时间内接受异常低的回报，最糟糕的是，错过进一步的收益。</blockquote></p><p> An alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.</p><p><blockquote>另一种选择是防御性地重新定位到具有可靠收入来源的资产或业务中，这些资产或业务从事基本行业或销售主食。如今，这些传统的 “寡妇和孤儿 ”投资更难找到。“安全 ”的政府债券现在收益低，但风险高。股票和房地产价格高度相关，反映了投资者的行为以及对杠杆的普遍依赖。当杠杆投资者需要筹集现金时，流动性更强、质量更好的资产经常会面临抛售压力。今天，正如涨潮抬起所有的船只一样，退潮让每个人都搁浅了。</blockquote></p><p> Fourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) &nbsp;TIP,+0.52%&nbsp;or commodities.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>第四，投资者可以寻求从更高的通胀中获益，转向受益于价格上涨的股票。但对股票价格的影响将取决于是利润通胀（即最终产品价格上涨）还是成本通胀，包括工资上涨。如果是后者，那么盈利的挤压可能会对股票估值产生不利影响。再加上较高的利率，这可能会对股票产生不利影响。另一种选择是与通胀挂钩的证券，例如国债通胀保值证券 (TIPS) TIP,+0.52% 或大宗商品。</blockquote></p><p> Fifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.</p><p><blockquote>第五，投资者可能会 “偏离轨道”，认为现有政策不可持续，经济体系已经无可挽回地崩溃。这有利于加密货币、贵金属或收藏品——这些非传统资产的供应自然受到限制。国家没收、征税和监管的能力，以及对法院执行权利的依赖，使这种对自由的追求变得复杂。</blockquote></p><p> The ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.</p><p><blockquote>超级富豪和一些高净值人士已经通过进入私人市场而脱离了电网。由于担心被操纵和游戏化的市场，他们现在专注于非上市的真实企业和资产以及私人债务，为了更好的经济、隐私和控制而牺牲流动性和透明度。不幸的是，这些选择对普通人来说是有限的——这是一种不同形式的不平等。</blockquote></p><p> Investors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者面临的是霍布森的虚幻选择，实际上只提供了一件事。他们可能会因押注价格上涨或价格持续上涨而失败。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Policymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，政策制定者继续加剧几十年来的错误。他们现在必须继续增加债务并维持低利率，以保持资产价格高企。政府赤字对于维持经济活动至关重要。把罐子踢到路上是确保清算日推迟的唯一方法——NIMTO（不是在我的任期内）。这迫使投资者在风险曲线上走得更远以产生回报。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”</p><p><blockquote>也许现在的投资者应该遵循喜剧演员威尔-罗杰斯（Will Rogers）的著名投资建议： “不要赌博；拿出你所有的积蓄，买一些好股票，持有到股价上涨，然后卖出。如果股价不涨，就不要买”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited<blockquote>观点：股票投资者现在已经走到了悬崖边——选择有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited<blockquote>观点：股票投资者现在已经走到了悬崖边——选择有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 20:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.</b>  The coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.</p><p><blockquote><b>基本面尚未适用于美国市场，但这种情况似乎即将改变。</b>冠状病毒大流行对投资者来说是极好的，但现在大多数人都意识到，股市的非凡表现并不是基于基本面，而基本面在一段时间前就已经不再重要了。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.</p><p><blockquote>央行一直在通过大量注入流动性和零利率来推高资产价格。消费和企业盈利是由巨额政府转移支付、财政刺激和行业支持支撑的。</blockquote></p><p> Will it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>会持续吗？人们普遍认为，大多数资产定价过高。价格最终是未来现金流的现值。当局操纵了贴现率，但改变由实体经济驱动的潜在长期现金流更加困难。由央行设计的低波动性也鼓励了旺盛的价格。在某个阶段，挥霍无度的政府赤字可能会通过缩减支出或增加税收来控制。这些政策也可能推高通货膨胀，需要收紧货币政策和提高利率。</blockquote></p><p> Currently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.</p><p><blockquote>当前的高股价使投资者面临突然调整的风险，即音乐椅游戏意外停止。鉴于几乎所有的收益都是价格而不是收入（股息、利息等）。），脆弱性加剧。金融体系的不稳定结构——高杠杆、影子银行、流动性不足、未解决的联系、跟随投资者的趋势上升——意味着任何问题都可能引发重大调整。</blockquote></p><p> Investors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的选择有限。你可以相信 “新常态 ”的永久性。然后，高风险资产投资是合理的，因为当局必须确保资产价格高企且不断上涨，主要是因为替代方案太可怕了，难以想象。这假设策略选项无限期地保持无限制。</blockquote></p><p> Or investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.</p><p><blockquote>或者，投资者可以依靠势头，本质上是凯恩斯所谓的投资选美理论，该理论预测了今天的 “迷因股票 ”。成功的投资需要投资者在所有评委中挑选出最受欢迎的面孔，而不是那些他们个人可能觉得最有吸引力的面孔。难点在于了解评委的想法，并在音乐停止前认清何时出售。</blockquote></p><p> Third, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.</p><p><blockquote>第三，投资者可以将资金存放在现金中。这意味着可能在很长一段时间内接受异常低的回报，最糟糕的是，错过进一步的收益。</blockquote></p><p> An alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.</p><p><blockquote>另一种选择是防御性地重新定位到具有可靠收入来源的资产或业务中，这些资产或业务从事基本行业或销售主食。如今，这些传统的 “寡妇和孤儿 ”投资更难找到。“安全 ”的政府债券现在收益低，但风险高。股票和房地产价格高度相关，反映了投资者的行为以及对杠杆的普遍依赖。当杠杆投资者需要筹集现金时，流动性更强、质量更好的资产经常会面临抛售压力。今天，正如涨潮抬起所有的船只一样，退潮让每个人都搁浅了。</blockquote></p><p> Fourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) &nbsp;TIP,+0.52%&nbsp;or commodities.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>第四，投资者可以寻求从更高的通胀中获益，转向受益于价格上涨的股票。但对股票价格的影响将取决于是利润通胀（即最终产品价格上涨）还是成本通胀，包括工资上涨。如果是后者，那么盈利的挤压可能会对股票估值产生不利影响。再加上较高的利率，这可能会对股票产生不利影响。另一种选择是与通胀挂钩的证券，例如国债通胀保值证券 (TIPS) TIP,+0.52% 或大宗商品。</blockquote></p><p> Fifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.</p><p><blockquote>第五，投资者可能会 “偏离轨道”，认为现有政策不可持续，经济体系已经无可挽回地崩溃。这有利于加密货币、贵金属或收藏品——这些非传统资产的供应自然受到限制。国家没收、征税和监管的能力，以及对法院执行权利的依赖，使这种对自由的追求变得复杂。</blockquote></p><p> The ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.</p><p><blockquote>超级富豪和一些高净值人士已经通过进入私人市场而脱离了电网。由于担心被操纵和游戏化的市场，他们现在专注于非上市的真实企业和资产以及私人债务，为了更好的经济、隐私和控制而牺牲流动性和透明度。不幸的是，这些选择对普通人来说是有限的——这是一种不同形式的不平等。</blockquote></p><p> Investors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者面临的是霍布森的虚幻选择，实际上只提供了一件事。他们可能会因押注价格上涨或价格持续上涨而失败。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Policymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，政策制定者继续加剧几十年来的错误。他们现在必须继续增加债务并维持低利率，以保持资产价格高企。政府赤字对于维持经济活动至关重要。把罐子踢到路上是确保清算日推迟的唯一方法——NIMTO（不是在我的任期内）。这迫使投资者在风险曲线上走得更远以产生回报。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”</p><p><blockquote>也许现在的投资者应该遵循喜剧演员威尔-罗杰斯（Will Rogers）的著名投资建议： “不要赌博；拿出你所有的积蓄，买一些好股票，持有到股价上涨，然后卖出。如果股价不涨，就不要买”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198311684","content_text":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.\nCentral banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.\nWill it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates. \nCurrently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.\nInvestors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.\nOr investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.\nThird, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.\nAn alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.\nFourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS)  TIP,+0.52% or commodities. \nFifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.\nThe ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.\nInvestors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising. \nPolicymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns. \nPerhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":189509701,"gmtCreate":1623280416903,"gmtModify":1634035134259,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189509701","repostId":"1158809705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":117966125,"gmtCreate":1623113886467,"gmtModify":1634036833715,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"For sharing","listText":"For sharing","text":"For sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117966125","repostId":"1196162025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114944521,"gmtCreate":1623046063163,"gmtModify":1634095883878,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"To the moon!!","listText":"To the moon!!","text":"To the moon!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114944521","repostId":"2141299286","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112342448,"gmtCreate":1622853341784,"gmtModify":1634097417949,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"坚持就会看到希望？","listText":"坚持就会看到希望？","text":"坚持就会看到希望？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112342448","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154529120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. 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is caring","listText":"Sharing is caring","text":"Sharing is caring","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185162509","repostId":"1146430910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113093307,"gmtCreate":1622581430609,"gmtModify":1634100360165,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"All in if drop to $90","listText":"All in if drop to $90","text":"All in if drop to $90","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113093307","repostId":"1107522849","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价下跌30%？在熊的头脑里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"<p>There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?</p><p><blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会从当前水平下跌约 30% 吗？</blockquote></p><p> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.</p><p><blockquote>又一只熊从洞穴里出现了。New Street 的 Pierre Ferragu 认为，苹果的股票现在是卖出，从他之前的中性立场下调，股价可能会从目前的水平下跌近 30%，仅为 90 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心世界，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\"><span>Figure 1: Wall Street bear.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：华尔街熊。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>“12S cycle” coming up?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“12S周期”即将到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.</p><p><blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果熊。高盛著名的怀疑论者罗德·霍尔在这家库比蒂诺公司公布了创纪录的第二财季后终于认输了。Wolfe Research 的 Jeff Kvaal 维持卖出评级，但目标价高达 125 美元，表明下行风险极小。</blockquote></p><p> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。这位分析师认为，这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机很可能是 “12S 机型”，更新有限，这进一步印证了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:</p><p><blockquote>除了即将推出的 2021 年 iPhone 机型平淡无奇之外，费拉古先生的看跌论点还可以通过他下面的引言得到进一步说明：</blockquote></p><p>   “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”  <b>Plugging some numbers</b></p><p><blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何发展，因为当前的超级周期推动了需求[.]，随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出也会减少”。<b>插入一些数字</b></blockquote></p><p> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.</p><p><blockquote>新街提供了一些数据来支持 30% 的下行风险。据分析师称，2022 年 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote></p><p> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果平均售价 (ASP) 像 2021 财年前两个季度那样保持高位，那么明年 iPhone 的收入将达到 1500 亿美元左右。在这些水平上，通过 COVID-19 危机和大流行复苏，iPhone 销量每年将温和增长 5%，而我估计市场普遍认为增长率接近 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到 iPhone 与苹果的财务业绩仍然息息相关（占 2020 财年公司总销售额的 50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以每股收益落后于共识的形式出现，需要两者结合起来才能支撑新街 90 美元的股价目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的观点</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.</p><p><blockquote>有一点是明确的：股票价格可以剧烈波动并大幅调整。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前已多次从峰值下跌 40% 或更多（目前为 12%，加上 New Street 预计的近 30% 跌幅）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\"><span>Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AAPL 自 IPO 以来的最大回撤幅度。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.</p><p><blockquote>但在我看来，苹果公司要想回到 90 美元，肯定会出很大的问题——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销售额增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而不是暂时的需求增长。</blockquote></p><p> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 的疲软可能也需要在其他领域带来微弱的结果。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定于产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li>  <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>事实上，大流行后的“恢复正常”将导致可自由支配支出有意义地远离技术设备和服务--我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将忍受双底衰退，财政和货币刺激措施也无法补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>最终，AAPL 90 美元是可能的——在我看来，可能性不大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价下跌30%？在熊的头脑里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价下跌30%？在熊的头脑里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-01 19:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?</p><p><blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会从当前水平下跌约 30% 吗？</blockquote></p><p> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.</p><p><blockquote>又一只熊从洞穴里出现了。New Street 的 Pierre Ferragu 认为，苹果的股票现在是卖出，从他之前的中性立场下调，股价可能会从目前的水平下跌近 30%，仅为 90 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心世界，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\"><span>Figure 1: Wall Street bear.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：华尔街熊。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>“12S cycle” coming up?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“12S周期”即将到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.</p><p><blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果熊。高盛著名的怀疑论者罗德·霍尔在这家库比蒂诺公司公布了创纪录的第二财季后终于认输了。Wolfe Research 的 Jeff Kvaal 维持卖出评级，但目标价高达 125 美元，表明下行风险极小。</blockquote></p><p> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。这位分析师认为，这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机很可能是 “12S 机型”，更新有限，这进一步印证了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:</p><p><blockquote>除了即将推出的 2021 年 iPhone 机型平淡无奇之外，费拉古先生的看跌论点还可以通过他下面的引言得到进一步说明：</blockquote></p><p>   “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”  <b>Plugging some numbers</b></p><p><blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何发展，因为当前的超级周期推动了需求[.]，随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出也会减少”。<b>插入一些数字</b></blockquote></p><p> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.</p><p><blockquote>新街提供了一些数据来支持 30% 的下行风险。据分析师称，2022 年 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote></p><p> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果平均售价 (ASP) 像 2021 财年前两个季度那样保持高位，那么明年 iPhone 的收入将达到 1500 亿美元左右。在这些水平上，通过 COVID-19 危机和大流行复苏，iPhone 销量每年将温和增长 5%，而我估计市场普遍认为增长率接近 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到 iPhone 与苹果的财务业绩仍然息息相关（占 2020 财年公司总销售额的 50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以每股收益落后于共识的形式出现，需要两者结合起来才能支撑新街 90 美元的股价目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的观点</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.</p><p><blockquote>有一点是明确的：股票价格可以剧烈波动并大幅调整。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前已多次从峰值下跌 40% 或更多（目前为 12%，加上 New Street 预计的近 30% 跌幅）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\"><span>Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AAPL 自 IPO 以来的最大回撤幅度。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.</p><p><blockquote>但在我看来，苹果公司要想回到 90 美元，肯定会出很大的问题——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销售额增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而不是暂时的需求增长。</blockquote></p><p> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 的疲软可能也需要在其他领域带来微弱的结果。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定于产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li>  <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>事实上，大流行后的“恢复正常”将导致可自由支配支出有意义地远离技术设备和服务--我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将忍受双底衰退，财政和货币刺激措施也无法补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>最终，AAPL 90 美元是可能的——在我看来，可能性不大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100798197,"gmtCreate":1619649134319,"gmtModify":1634211144610,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"好文分享，点个赞呗","listText":"好文分享，点个赞呗","text":"好文分享，点个赞呗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100798197","repostId":"1104198438","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}