TheRealDon44的个人主页 - 老虎社区

TheRealDon44

TheRealDon44

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2021-03-25

Haiz keep going down and down

Tesla stock is off its high, but it's not 'on sale': trader<blockquote>交易员：特斯拉股价已脱离高点，但并未“打折”</blockquote>

2021-04-04

Every week there will be article about "crash is coming?"

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

2021-03-21

Then keep the interest rate low

Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>

2021-03-17

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$haiz

2021-04-20

Wow

IPO Preview: UiPath Inc, KnowBe4, Zymergen, Latham Holdings Highlight Busy Week Of Offerings<blockquote>IPO预览：UiPath Inc、KnowBe4、Zymergen、Latham Holdings重点介绍繁忙的一周发行</blockquote>

2021-04-14

Take my money

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-02

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Long term gain but short term big pain

2021-04-10

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-22

Cheers

Headed For A Collapsing Debt Bubble<blockquote>走向崩溃的债务泡沫</blockquote>

2021-03-20

SPAC is bad

抱歉，原内容已删除

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Night please&nbsp;","listText":"Green Night please&nbsp;","text":"Green Night please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169505301","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182053016,"gmtCreate":1623548307235,"gmtModify":1634031961879,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Let's make some money tomorrow&nbsp;","listText":"Let's make some money tomorrow&nbsp;","text":"Let's make some money 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green","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132814050","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133579658,"gmtCreate":1621776055974,"gmtModify":1634186642115,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good evening&nbsp;","listText":"Good evening&nbsp;","text":"Good evening","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133579658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139792052,"gmtCreate":1621655271076,"gmtModify":1634187334083,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Will tech stocks ever recover?&nbsp;","listText":"Will tech stocks ever recover?&nbsp;","text":"Will tech stocks ever recover?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139792052","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130231398,"gmtCreate":1621551764114,"gmtModify":1634188282528,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good day&nbsp;","listText":"Good day&nbsp;","text":"Good day","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130231398","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130919685,"gmtCreate":1621502551647,"gmtModify":1634188616593,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please help to like and comment here TIA","listText":"Please help to like and comment here TIA","text":"Please help to like and comment here TIA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130919685","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197941462,"gmtCreate":1621423306356,"gmtModify":1634189284320,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Another red day fam","listText":"Another red day fam","text":"Another red day fam","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197941462","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195230091,"gmtCreate":1621296219413,"gmtModify":1634192740031,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;Still some distance away","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;Still some distance away","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Still some distance away","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec2b4c525de36fb0c057e19af8c57424","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195230091","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191188454,"gmtCreate":1620864339278,"gmtModify":1634195821107,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"PLTR what's going on?&nbsp;","listText":"PLTR what's going on?&nbsp;","text":"PLTR what's going on?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191188454","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":358035606,"gmtCreate":1616639110605,"gmtModify":1634524787097,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Haiz keep going down and down","listText":"Haiz keep going down and down","text":"Haiz keep going down and down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358035606","repostId":"1159581958","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159581958","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616638601,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159581958?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla stock is off its high, but it's not 'on sale': trader<blockquote>交易员：特斯拉股价已脱离高点，但并未“打折”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159581958","media":"yahoo","summary":"Tesla stock is rallying off its lows after suffering a 40% draw-down — its worst decline since the COVID-induced sell-off one year ago pulled it down more than 60%. But one trader is saying it's too early for short-term investors to wade back in.\"[It] was at that point that we were warning investors: Maybe you want to take some profits into this strength if you were buying out at 466 area, or even earlier in the big move that we saw in 2020. It then started to trigger some more sell signals as t","content":"<p>Tesla stock is rallying off its lows after suffering a 40% draw-down — its worst decline since the COVID-induced sell-off one year ago pulled it down more than 60%. But one trader is saying it's too early for short-term investors to wade back in.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在下跌40%后正在从低点反弹，这是自一年前新冠疫情引发的抛售导致其下跌超过60%以来的最严重跌幅。但一位交易员表示，对于短期投资者来说，现在重新介入还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> \"[Tesla] is a fan favorite out there for many investors... [A] lot of people love the company, love the story here with Tesla, and may be tempted to say, 'Hey, Tesla has come way off of those highs. Maybe I should buy the stock on sale here.' But we would caution against that,\" Alissa Coram, multimedia content editor at Investor’s Business Daily, tells Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>“[特斯拉]是许多投资者的最爱……[a]很多人喜欢这家公司，喜欢特斯拉的故事，并且可能会想说，‘嘿，特斯拉已经从这些高点回落了很多。也许我应该购买这里出售的股票。’但我们要警告不要这样做，”《投资者商业日报》多媒体内容编辑艾丽莎·科拉姆(Alissa Coram)告诉雅虎财经直播。</blockquote></p><p> Coram looks to market technicals for cues, pointing to the prior breakout from a months-long consolidating pennant formation. \"[If] you rewind the clock to last November, that strength out of a little consolidation there, over the 466 level —we would have considered that definitely an actual entry for the stock. [It] went on a huge move after that,\" says Coram.</p><p><blockquote>Coram从市场技术面寻找线索，指出之前突破了长达数月的盘整三角旗形态。“[如果]你把时间倒回去年11月，在466点上方的小幅盘整中走强——我们会认为这绝对是该股的实际入场。[它]在那之后发生了巨大的波动，”科拉姆说。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68144605fb501e35c68d6a3d609dc457\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla stock is pushing up against its 21-day exponential moving average after slicing through other support, following a period of institutional distribution. Off its lows, Tesla could be at a major inflection point.</p><p><blockquote>经过一段时间的机构分配，特斯拉股价在突破其他支撑后，正在突破21日指数移动平均线。脱离低点后，特斯拉可能正处于一个重大拐点。</blockquote></p><p> After the strong move, Investor's Business Daily warned traders who had bought the prior breakout that it might be time to book some profits in early January. The expanding volatility (or daily trading range) of Tesla stock tipped off astute watchers of Tesla's stock price action that there might be trouble on the horizon.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲走势之后，《投资者商业日报》警告在之前突破时买入的交易者，可能是时候在一月初获利了结了。特斯拉股票的波动性（或每日交易区间）不断扩大，让敏锐的特斯拉股价走势观察者知道，麻烦可能即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> Coram notes the climactic action in early January as the stock gapped up, opening above the prior day's high, three days consecutively. She also points out how the stock was getting extended from its various moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>Coram指出，一月初该股跳空上涨，连续三天开盘高于前一天高点，出现了高潮。她还指出了该股如何从各种移动平均线延伸。</blockquote></p><p> \"[It] was at that point that we were warning investors: Maybe you want to take some profits into this strength if you were buying out at 466 area, or even earlier in the big move that we saw in 2020. It then started to trigger some more sell signals as the technicals broke down, first breaking below that 21-day moving average. That would have been another spot to take profits,\" she says.</p><p><blockquote>“[就在那时，我们警告投资者：如果你在466区域买入，甚至在我们在2020年看到的大幅波动的早期买入，也许你想在这种强势中获利。然后它开始随着技术面崩溃，首先跌破21日移动平均线，触发更多卖出信号。那将是另一个获利了结的地方，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> Coram highlights the importance of the 50-day moving average, which is also the 10-week moving average — an important institutional reference point. \"When we see a big break of the 50-day line, or the 10-week line on a weekly chart, our research shows that it's at that point that stocks that have made big moves really need to take a break, at the very least. We've seen huge volume declines, and the stock is now hitting some resistance at that 21-day moving average, potentially living below that level... [W]e think Tesla needs some time here, so avoid that temptation of thinking the stock is on sale here,\" she says.</p><p><blockquote>Coram强调了50日移动平均线的重要性，这也是10周移动平均线——一个重要的机构参考点。“当我们在周线图上看到50日线或10周线大幅突破时，我们的研究表明，正是在这一点上，大幅波动的股票确实需要休息一下，至少。我们已经看到成交量大幅下降，该股现在在21日移动平均线处遇到了一些阻力，可能会低于该水平……[我们]认为特斯拉在这里需要一些时间，所以避免认为该股票在这里出售的诱惑，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> For longer-term investors still sitting on large, multiyear gains, Coram says they can treat Tesla stock a little differently and allow for more breathing room. \"Tesla could surge to new highs and keep climbing, but it also could be dead money for a while,\" shetweets. \"We'll have to see!\"</p><p><blockquote>科拉姆表示，对于仍坐拥多年巨额收益的长期投资者来说，他们可以以不同的方式对待特斯拉股票，并留出更多的喘息空间。她在推特上写道：“特斯拉可能会飙升至新高并继续攀升，但也可能在一段时间内成为死钱。”“我们得拭目以待！”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1584348713084","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla stock is off its high, but it's not 'on sale': trader<blockquote>交易员：特斯拉股价已脱离高点，但并未“打折”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla stock is off its high, but it's not 'on sale': trader<blockquote>交易员：特斯拉股价已脱离高点，但并未“打折”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-25 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla stock is rallying off its lows after suffering a 40% draw-down — its worst decline since the COVID-induced sell-off one year ago pulled it down more than 60%. But one trader is saying it's too early for short-term investors to wade back in.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在下跌40%后正在从低点反弹，这是自一年前新冠疫情引发的抛售导致其下跌超过60%以来的最严重跌幅。但一位交易员表示，对于短期投资者来说，现在重新介入还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> \"[Tesla] is a fan favorite out there for many investors... [A] lot of people love the company, love the story here with Tesla, and may be tempted to say, 'Hey, Tesla has come way off of those highs. Maybe I should buy the stock on sale here.' But we would caution against that,\" Alissa Coram, multimedia content editor at Investor’s Business Daily, tells Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>“[特斯拉]是许多投资者的最爱……[a]很多人喜欢这家公司，喜欢特斯拉的故事，并且可能会想说，‘嘿，特斯拉已经从这些高点回落了很多。也许我应该购买这里出售的股票。’但我们要警告不要这样做，”《投资者商业日报》多媒体内容编辑艾丽莎·科拉姆(Alissa Coram)告诉雅虎财经直播。</blockquote></p><p> Coram looks to market technicals for cues, pointing to the prior breakout from a months-long consolidating pennant formation. \"[If] you rewind the clock to last November, that strength out of a little consolidation there, over the 466 level —we would have considered that definitely an actual entry for the stock. [It] went on a huge move after that,\" says Coram.</p><p><blockquote>Coram从市场技术面寻找线索，指出之前突破了长达数月的盘整三角旗形态。“[如果]你把时间倒回去年11月，在466点上方的小幅盘整中走强——我们会认为这绝对是该股的实际入场。[它]在那之后发生了巨大的波动，”科拉姆说。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68144605fb501e35c68d6a3d609dc457\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla stock is pushing up against its 21-day exponential moving average after slicing through other support, following a period of institutional distribution. Off its lows, Tesla could be at a major inflection point.</p><p><blockquote>经过一段时间的机构分配，特斯拉股价在突破其他支撑后，正在突破21日指数移动平均线。脱离低点后，特斯拉可能正处于一个重大拐点。</blockquote></p><p> After the strong move, Investor's Business Daily warned traders who had bought the prior breakout that it might be time to book some profits in early January. The expanding volatility (or daily trading range) of Tesla stock tipped off astute watchers of Tesla's stock price action that there might be trouble on the horizon.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲走势之后，《投资者商业日报》警告在之前突破时买入的交易者，可能是时候在一月初获利了结了。特斯拉股票的波动性（或每日交易区间）不断扩大，让敏锐的特斯拉股价走势观察者知道，麻烦可能即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> Coram notes the climactic action in early January as the stock gapped up, opening above the prior day's high, three days consecutively. She also points out how the stock was getting extended from its various moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>Coram指出，一月初该股跳空上涨，连续三天开盘高于前一天高点，出现了高潮。她还指出了该股如何从各种移动平均线延伸。</blockquote></p><p> \"[It] was at that point that we were warning investors: Maybe you want to take some profits into this strength if you were buying out at 466 area, or even earlier in the big move that we saw in 2020. It then started to trigger some more sell signals as the technicals broke down, first breaking below that 21-day moving average. That would have been another spot to take profits,\" she says.</p><p><blockquote>“[就在那时，我们警告投资者：如果你在466区域买入，甚至在我们在2020年看到的大幅波动的早期买入，也许你想在这种强势中获利。然后它开始随着技术面崩溃，首先跌破21日移动平均线，触发更多卖出信号。那将是另一个获利了结的地方，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> Coram highlights the importance of the 50-day moving average, which is also the 10-week moving average — an important institutional reference point. \"When we see a big break of the 50-day line, or the 10-week line on a weekly chart, our research shows that it's at that point that stocks that have made big moves really need to take a break, at the very least. We've seen huge volume declines, and the stock is now hitting some resistance at that 21-day moving average, potentially living below that level... [W]e think Tesla needs some time here, so avoid that temptation of thinking the stock is on sale here,\" she says.</p><p><blockquote>Coram强调了50日移动平均线的重要性，这也是10周移动平均线——一个重要的机构参考点。“当我们在周线图上看到50日线或10周线大幅突破时，我们的研究表明，正是在这一点上，大幅波动的股票确实需要休息一下，至少。我们已经看到成交量大幅下降，该股现在在21日移动平均线处遇到了一些阻力，可能会低于该水平……[我们]认为特斯拉在这里需要一些时间，所以避免认为该股票在这里出售的诱惑，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> For longer-term investors still sitting on large, multiyear gains, Coram says they can treat Tesla stock a little differently and allow for more breathing room. \"Tesla could surge to new highs and keep climbing, but it also could be dead money for a while,\" shetweets. \"We'll have to see!\"</p><p><blockquote>科拉姆表示，对于仍坐拥多年巨额收益的长期投资者来说，他们可以以不同的方式对待特斯拉股票，并留出更多的喘息空间。她在推特上写道：“特斯拉可能会飙升至新高并继续攀升，但也可能在一段时间内成为死钱。”“我们得拭目以待！”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-is-off-its-high-but-its-not-on-sale-trader-104945788.html\">yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/894b094eb32ac5072648613b2fa7f36e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-is-off-its-high-but-its-not-on-sale-trader-104945788.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159581958","content_text":"Tesla stock is rallying off its lows after suffering a 40% draw-down — its worst decline since the COVID-induced sell-off one year ago pulled it down more than 60%. But one trader is saying it's too early for short-term investors to wade back in.\n\"[Tesla] is a fan favorite out there for many investors... [A] lot of people love the company, love the story here with Tesla, and may be tempted to say, 'Hey, Tesla has come way off of those highs. Maybe I should buy the stock on sale here.' But we would caution against that,\" Alissa Coram, multimedia content editor at Investor’s Business Daily, tells Yahoo Finance Live.\nCoram looks to market technicals for cues, pointing to the prior breakout from a months-long consolidating pennant formation. \"[If] you rewind the clock to last November, that strength out of a little consolidation there, over the 466 level —we would have considered that definitely an actual entry for the stock. [It] went on a huge move after that,\" says Coram.\nTesla stock is pushing up against its 21-day exponential moving average after slicing through other support, following a period of institutional distribution. Off its lows, Tesla could be at a major inflection point.\nAfter the strong move, Investor's Business Daily warned traders who had bought the prior breakout that it might be time to book some profits in early January. The expanding volatility (or daily trading range) of Tesla stock tipped off astute watchers of Tesla's stock price action that there might be trouble on the horizon.\nCoram notes the climactic action in early January as the stock gapped up, opening above the prior day's high, three days consecutively. She also points out how the stock was getting extended from its various moving averages.\n\"[It] was at that point that we were warning investors: Maybe you want to take some profits into this strength if you were buying out at 466 area, or even earlier in the big move that we saw in 2020. It then started to trigger some more sell signals as the technicals broke down, first breaking below that 21-day moving average. That would have been another spot to take profits,\" she says.\nCoram highlights the importance of the 50-day moving average, which is also the 10-week moving average — an important institutional reference point. \"When we see a big break of the 50-day line, or the 10-week line on a weekly chart, our research shows that it's at that point that stocks that have made big moves really need to take a break, at the very least. We've seen huge volume declines, and the stock is now hitting some resistance at that 21-day moving average, potentially living below that level... [W]e think Tesla needs some time here, so avoid that temptation of thinking the stock is on sale here,\" she says.\nFor longer-term investors still sitting on large, multiyear gains, Coram says they can treat Tesla stock a little differently and allow for more breathing room. \"Tesla could surge to new highs and keep climbing, but it also could be dead money for a while,\" shetweets. \"We'll have to see!\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349956001,"gmtCreate":1617527104003,"gmtModify":1634520637979,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Every week there will be article about \"crash is coming?\"&nbsp;","listText":"Every week there will be article about \"crash is coming?\"&nbsp;","text":"Every week there will be article about \"crash is coming?\"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349956001","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均值，即使有些人的投资基于历史上发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均值，即使有些人的投资基于历史上发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350716307,"gmtCreate":1616289087209,"gmtModify":1634526506712,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Then keep the interest rate low","listText":"Then keep the interest rate low","text":"Then keep the interest rate low","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350716307","repostId":"1117450855","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117450855","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616166767,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117450855?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117450855","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration o","content":"<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1117450855","content_text":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”\nIn an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.\n“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.\nPowell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.\nThe central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.\nWith economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.\nIn the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”\n“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.\n“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.\nThe Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.\nYields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.\nStocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324198612,"gmtCreate":1615971638436,"gmtModify":1703495696956,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>haiz","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>haiz","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$haiz","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f68c0f447c8a47fe4885a07885d45ed5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324198612","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371390564,"gmtCreate":1618908142058,"gmtModify":1634289988201,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371390564","repostId":"1129471770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129471770","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1618793935,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129471770?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-19 08:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"IPO Preview: UiPath Inc, KnowBe4, Zymergen, Latham Holdings Highlight Busy Week Of Offerings<blockquote>IPO预览：UiPath Inc、KnowBe4、Zymergen、Latham Holdings重点介绍繁忙的一周发行</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129471770","media":"Benzinga","summary":"This week’s offerings don’t have quite the same high profile as last week's highly anticipated IPO o","content":"<p>This week’s offerings don’t have quite the same high profile as last week's highly anticipated IPO of<b>Coinbase Global</b>COIN 5.96%. Nevertheless, there are several excitingIPOsthat investors should consider this week, including UiPath and Latham Holdings.</p><p><blockquote>本周的发行不像上周备受期待的IPO那样引人注目<b>比特币基地全球</b>硬币5.96%。尽管如此，投资者本周应该考虑几个令人兴奋的IPO，包括UiPath和Latham Holdings。</blockquote></p><p>Here is a look at the expected IPO pricings for the week of April 19.</p><p><blockquote>以下是4月19日当周的预期IPO定价。</blockquote></p><p><b>DoubleVerify Holdings:</b>&nbsp;Digital media measurement and analytics company<b>DoubleVerify Holdings</b>&nbsp;NYSE:&nbsp;DV&nbsp;plansto sell 13.3 million shares at a price point of $24 to $27.</p><p><blockquote><b>DoubleVerify控股：</b>数字媒体测量和分析公司<b>双验证控股</b>纽约证券交易所股票代码：DV计划以24至27美元的价格出售1,330万股股票。</blockquote></p><p>The company makes security software for digital advertising and claims to have over 1,000 advertisers and publishers as partners, and more than 45 customers that each account for $1 million in annual revenue for DoubleVerify.</p><p><blockquote>该公司为数字广告生产安全软件，并声称有超过1,000家广告商和出版商作为合作伙伴，以及超过45家客户，每个客户为DoubleVerify贡献了100万美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p>The company had revenue of $244 million in fiscal 2020, a year-over-year increase of 34%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司2020财年营收2.44亿美元，同比增长34%。</blockquote></p><p><b>NeuroPace:</b>&nbsp;Commercial-stage medical device company<b>NeuroPace</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;NPCE&nbsp;says it&nbsp;hasthe first and only commercially-available, brain-responsive system to help fight seizures.</p><p><blockquote><b>神经空间：</b>商业化阶段医疗器械公司<b>神经空间</b>纳斯达克：NPCE表示，它拥有第一个也是唯一一个商用的大脑响应系统来帮助对抗癫痫发作。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s target market is customers who have drug-resistant epilepsy. Over 3,000 patients were&nbsp;served by the company through 2020. Neuropace had revenue of $10 million in fiscal 2020 and is guiding for fiscal 2021 revenue of between $11.1 million and $11.3 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的目标市场是患有耐药性癫痫的客户。截至2020年，该公司为超过3,000名患者提供了服务。Neuropace 2020财年的收入为1000万美元，预计2021财年的收入在1110万美元至1130万美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>Over $28 billion is spent annually on epilepsy care in the United States. The company plans to sell 5.3 million shares at a price point of $15 to $17.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，每年用于癫痫护理的费用超过280亿美元。该公司计划以15至17美元的价格出售530万股股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>UiPath:</b>Thebiggest IPOof the week is set to be automation company<b>UiPath Inc</b>NYSEPATH, with aplannedoffering of 21.3 million shares at a price point of $43 to $50.</p><p><blockquote><b>UiPath：</b>本周最大的IPO将是自动化公司<b>UiPath公司</b>NYSEPATH计划以43至50美元的价格发行2130万股。</blockquote></p><p>The company “makes software robots so people don’t have to be robots.” The company had annual recurring revenue of $580 million in the fiscal year ended January 31, 2021, for a growth rate of 65%.&nbsp;UiPath says it has over 7,900 customers, with over 1,000 of them paying $100,000 or more annually to the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司“制造软件机器人，这样人们就不必成为机器人。”截至2021年1月31日的财年，该公司的年度经常性收入为5.8亿美元，增长率为65%。UiPath表示，它拥有超过7,900名客户，其中超过1,000名客户每年向该公司支付10万美元或更多。</blockquote></p><p>The company is targeting a market opportunity of $65 billion and believes its open architecture and end-to-end platform set it apart from competitors.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的目标是650亿美元的市场机会，并相信其开放式架构和端到端平台使其从竞争对手中脱颖而出。</blockquote></p><p><b>SkyWater Technology:</b>Pure-play technology foundry<b>SkyWater Technology</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;SKYT&nbsp;offerssemiconductor development and manufacturing services, targeting&nbsp;customers in markets like advanced computing, aerospace, defense, automotive and IoT.</p><p><blockquote><b>SkyWater技术：</b>纯技术代工厂<b>天水科技</b>纳斯达克：SKYT提供半导体开发和制造服务，目标客户包括先进计算、航空航天、国防、汽车和物联网等市场。</blockquote></p><p>The company has 35 customers in its advanced technology services including L3Harris and<b>Microsoft Corporation</b>MSFT 0.48%. SkyWater was divested from Cypress Semiconductor in 2017. The company had revenue of $140.4 million in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的先进技术服务拥有35家客户，包括L3Harris和<b>微软公司</b>MSFT 0.48%。SkyWater于2017年从赛普拉斯半导体剥离。该公司2020年收入为1.404亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>SkyWater plans to sell 5.8 million shares at a price point of $12 to $14.</p><p><blockquote>SkyWater计划以12至14美元的价格出售580万股股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>KnowBe4:</b>Security platform<b>KnowBe4 Inc</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;KNBE&nbsp;isseekingto sell 11.8 million shares at a price point of $16 to $18.</p><p><blockquote><b>已知4：</b>安全平台<b>KnowBe4公司</b>纳斯达克：KNBE正在寻求以16至18美元的价格出售1180万股股票。</blockquote></p><p>The company serves over 37,000 customers globally in markets worth $15 billion. The company had 45% revenue growth and $198 million in annual recurring revenue last year. It plans to rapidly grow its international operations, which made up 11.9% of revenue in fiscal 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该公司为全球超过37,000名客户提供服务，市场价值150亿美元。该公司去年的收入增长了45%，年度经常性收入为1.98亿美元。该公司计划快速发展其国际业务，该业务占2020财年收入的11.9%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Zymergen: \"</b>Biofacturing\" company<b>Zymergen</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;ZY&nbsp;plansto sell 13.6 million shares at a price of $28 to $31.</p><p><blockquote><b>Zymergen：“</b>生物制造”公司<b>酶根</b>纳斯达克：ZY计划以28至31美元的价格出售1360万股股票。</blockquote></p><p>The company is working on bio-based products including films that could be used in rollable mobile tablet devices.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在开发生物基产品，包括可用于可卷曲移动平板设备的薄膜。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s first product, Hyaline, was launched in December 2020, and an additional 10 products are in development. The biofacturing market is worth $1.2 trillion. according to the company.</p><p><blockquote>公司首款产品Hyaline于2020年12月上市，另有10款产品正在开发中。生物制造市场价值1.2万亿美元。据该公司称。</blockquote></p><p><b>Agiliti:</b>Healthcare service provider&nbsp;<b>Agiliti Inc</b>NYSEAGTIsays it&nbsp;hasa customer base of over 7,0000 networks and that&nbsp;90% of U.S. acute and alternate care facilities are within a 100-mile radius of an Agiliti service center. The company is seeking to sell 26.3 million shares at a price point of $18 to $20.</p><p><blockquote><b>敏捷性：</b>医疗服务提供者<b>敏捷公司</b>NYSEAGTI表示，它拥有超过7,000 0个网络的客户群，90%的美国急症和替代护理机构都在Agiliti服务中心100英里半径范围内。该公司寻求以18至20美元的价格出售2630万股股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>Latham Group:</b>A designer, manufacturer and marketer of in-ground residential pools in North America, Australia and New Zealandplansto go public this week.</p><p><blockquote><b>瑞生集团：</b>北美、澳大利亚和新西兰地下住宅泳池的设计者、制造商和营销商计划本周上市。</blockquote></p><p><b>Latham Group</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;SWIM&nbsp;plans to sell 20 million shares at a price point of $19 to $21.</p><p><blockquote><b>莱瑟姆集团</b>纳斯达克：SWIM计划以19美元至21美元的价格出售2000万股股票。</blockquote></p><p>The company sells fiberglass products that are more durable and use less chemicals, according to the company. Latham sold 8,700 fiberglass pools in 2020 and reported its 11th consecutive year of net sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>据该公司称，该公司销售的玻璃纤维产品更耐用，使用的化学品更少。Latham在2020年销售了8,700个玻璃纤维泳池，并报告了连续11年净销售额增长。</blockquote></p><p>The company had revenue of $408 million in fiscal 2020, and&nbsp;59% of it came from in-ground pool sales.</p><p><blockquote>该公司2020财年的收入为4.08亿美元，其中59%来自地下泳池销售。</blockquote></p><p>In 2018, the company shifted from a business-to-business model to business-to-consumer, making it&nbsp;the only pool company with a direct relationship to the homeowner, according to the company.</p><p><blockquote>据该公司称，2018年，该公司从企业对企业模式转向企业对消费者模式，使其成为唯一一家与房主有直接关系的泳池公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Fiberglass pools are still a small market in North America compared to international markets, Latham says. The company claims to have a No. 1 market-share position in all the categories it competes in for the North American market.</p><p><blockquote>莱瑟姆说，与国际市场相比，玻璃纤维泳池在北美仍然是一个小市场。该公司声称在北美市场竞争的所有类别中拥有第一的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IPO Preview: UiPath Inc, KnowBe4, Zymergen, Latham Holdings Highlight Busy Week Of Offerings<blockquote>IPO预览：UiPath Inc、KnowBe4、Zymergen、Latham Holdings重点介绍繁忙的一周发行</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIPO Preview: UiPath Inc, KnowBe4, Zymergen, Latham Holdings Highlight Busy Week Of Offerings<blockquote>IPO预览：UiPath Inc、KnowBe4、Zymergen、Latham Holdings重点介绍繁忙的一周发行</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-19 08:58</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week’s offerings don’t have quite the same high profile as last week's highly anticipated IPO of<b>Coinbase Global</b>COIN 5.96%. Nevertheless, there are several excitingIPOsthat investors should consider this week, including UiPath and Latham Holdings.</p><p><blockquote>本周的发行不像上周备受期待的IPO那样引人注目<b>比特币基地全球</b>硬币5.96%。尽管如此，投资者本周应该考虑几个令人兴奋的IPO，包括UiPath和Latham Holdings。</blockquote></p><p>Here is a look at the expected IPO pricings for the week of April 19.</p><p><blockquote>以下是4月19日当周的预期IPO定价。</blockquote></p><p><b>DoubleVerify Holdings:</b>&nbsp;Digital media measurement and analytics company<b>DoubleVerify Holdings</b>&nbsp;NYSE:&nbsp;DV&nbsp;plansto sell 13.3 million shares at a price point of $24 to $27.</p><p><blockquote><b>DoubleVerify控股：</b>数字媒体测量和分析公司<b>双验证控股</b>纽约证券交易所股票代码：DV计划以24至27美元的价格出售1,330万股股票。</blockquote></p><p>The company makes security software for digital advertising and claims to have over 1,000 advertisers and publishers as partners, and more than 45 customers that each account for $1 million in annual revenue for DoubleVerify.</p><p><blockquote>该公司为数字广告生产安全软件，并声称有超过1,000家广告商和出版商作为合作伙伴，以及超过45家客户，每个客户为DoubleVerify贡献了100万美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p>The company had revenue of $244 million in fiscal 2020, a year-over-year increase of 34%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司2020财年营收2.44亿美元，同比增长34%。</blockquote></p><p><b>NeuroPace:</b>&nbsp;Commercial-stage medical device company<b>NeuroPace</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;NPCE&nbsp;says it&nbsp;hasthe first and only commercially-available, brain-responsive system to help fight seizures.</p><p><blockquote><b>神经空间：</b>商业化阶段医疗器械公司<b>神经空间</b>纳斯达克：NPCE表示，它拥有第一个也是唯一一个商用的大脑响应系统来帮助对抗癫痫发作。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s target market is customers who have drug-resistant epilepsy. Over 3,000 patients were&nbsp;served by the company through 2020. Neuropace had revenue of $10 million in fiscal 2020 and is guiding for fiscal 2021 revenue of between $11.1 million and $11.3 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的目标市场是患有耐药性癫痫的客户。截至2020年，该公司为超过3,000名患者提供了服务。Neuropace 2020财年的收入为1000万美元，预计2021财年的收入在1110万美元至1130万美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>Over $28 billion is spent annually on epilepsy care in the United States. The company plans to sell 5.3 million shares at a price point of $15 to $17.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，每年用于癫痫护理的费用超过280亿美元。该公司计划以15至17美元的价格出售530万股股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>UiPath:</b>Thebiggest IPOof the week is set to be automation company<b>UiPath Inc</b>NYSEPATH, with aplannedoffering of 21.3 million shares at a price point of $43 to $50.</p><p><blockquote><b>UiPath：</b>本周最大的IPO将是自动化公司<b>UiPath公司</b>NYSEPATH计划以43至50美元的价格发行2130万股。</blockquote></p><p>The company “makes software robots so people don’t have to be robots.” The company had annual recurring revenue of $580 million in the fiscal year ended January 31, 2021, for a growth rate of 65%.&nbsp;UiPath says it has over 7,900 customers, with over 1,000 of them paying $100,000 or more annually to the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司“制造软件机器人，这样人们就不必成为机器人。”截至2021年1月31日的财年，该公司的年度经常性收入为5.8亿美元，增长率为65%。UiPath表示，它拥有超过7,900名客户，其中超过1,000名客户每年向该公司支付10万美元或更多。</blockquote></p><p>The company is targeting a market opportunity of $65 billion and believes its open architecture and end-to-end platform set it apart from competitors.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的目标是650亿美元的市场机会，并相信其开放式架构和端到端平台使其从竞争对手中脱颖而出。</blockquote></p><p><b>SkyWater Technology:</b>Pure-play technology foundry<b>SkyWater Technology</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;SKYT&nbsp;offerssemiconductor development and manufacturing services, targeting&nbsp;customers in markets like advanced computing, aerospace, defense, automotive and IoT.</p><p><blockquote><b>SkyWater技术：</b>纯技术代工厂<b>天水科技</b>纳斯达克：SKYT提供半导体开发和制造服务，目标客户包括先进计算、航空航天、国防、汽车和物联网等市场。</blockquote></p><p>The company has 35 customers in its advanced technology services including L3Harris and<b>Microsoft Corporation</b>MSFT 0.48%. SkyWater was divested from Cypress Semiconductor in 2017. The company had revenue of $140.4 million in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的先进技术服务拥有35家客户，包括L3Harris和<b>微软公司</b>MSFT 0.48%。SkyWater于2017年从赛普拉斯半导体剥离。该公司2020年收入为1.404亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>SkyWater plans to sell 5.8 million shares at a price point of $12 to $14.</p><p><blockquote>SkyWater计划以12至14美元的价格出售580万股股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>KnowBe4:</b>Security platform<b>KnowBe4 Inc</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;KNBE&nbsp;isseekingto sell 11.8 million shares at a price point of $16 to $18.</p><p><blockquote><b>已知4：</b>安全平台<b>KnowBe4公司</b>纳斯达克：KNBE正在寻求以16至18美元的价格出售1180万股股票。</blockquote></p><p>The company serves over 37,000 customers globally in markets worth $15 billion. The company had 45% revenue growth and $198 million in annual recurring revenue last year. It plans to rapidly grow its international operations, which made up 11.9% of revenue in fiscal 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该公司为全球超过37,000名客户提供服务，市场价值150亿美元。该公司去年的收入增长了45%，年度经常性收入为1.98亿美元。该公司计划快速发展其国际业务，该业务占2020财年收入的11.9%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Zymergen: \"</b>Biofacturing\" company<b>Zymergen</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;ZY&nbsp;plansto sell 13.6 million shares at a price of $28 to $31.</p><p><blockquote><b>Zymergen：“</b>生物制造”公司<b>酶根</b>纳斯达克：ZY计划以28至31美元的价格出售1360万股股票。</blockquote></p><p>The company is working on bio-based products including films that could be used in rollable mobile tablet devices.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在开发生物基产品，包括可用于可卷曲移动平板设备的薄膜。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s first product, Hyaline, was launched in December 2020, and an additional 10 products are in development. The biofacturing market is worth $1.2 trillion. according to the company.</p><p><blockquote>公司首款产品Hyaline于2020年12月上市，另有10款产品正在开发中。生物制造市场价值1.2万亿美元。据该公司称。</blockquote></p><p><b>Agiliti:</b>Healthcare service provider&nbsp;<b>Agiliti Inc</b>NYSEAGTIsays it&nbsp;hasa customer base of over 7,0000 networks and that&nbsp;90% of U.S. acute and alternate care facilities are within a 100-mile radius of an Agiliti service center. The company is seeking to sell 26.3 million shares at a price point of $18 to $20.</p><p><blockquote><b>敏捷性：</b>医疗服务提供者<b>敏捷公司</b>NYSEAGTI表示，它拥有超过7,000 0个网络的客户群，90%的美国急症和替代护理机构都在Agiliti服务中心100英里半径范围内。该公司寻求以18至20美元的价格出售2630万股股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>Latham Group:</b>A designer, manufacturer and marketer of in-ground residential pools in North America, Australia and New Zealandplansto go public this week.</p><p><blockquote><b>瑞生集团：</b>北美、澳大利亚和新西兰地下住宅泳池的设计者、制造商和营销商计划本周上市。</blockquote></p><p><b>Latham Group</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;SWIM&nbsp;plans to sell 20 million shares at a price point of $19 to $21.</p><p><blockquote><b>莱瑟姆集团</b>纳斯达克：SWIM计划以19美元至21美元的价格出售2000万股股票。</blockquote></p><p>The company sells fiberglass products that are more durable and use less chemicals, according to the company. Latham sold 8,700 fiberglass pools in 2020 and reported its 11th consecutive year of net sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>据该公司称，该公司销售的玻璃纤维产品更耐用，使用的化学品更少。Latham在2020年销售了8,700个玻璃纤维泳池，并报告了连续11年净销售额增长。</blockquote></p><p>The company had revenue of $408 million in fiscal 2020, and&nbsp;59% of it came from in-ground pool sales.</p><p><blockquote>该公司2020财年的收入为4.08亿美元，其中59%来自地下泳池销售。</blockquote></p><p>In 2018, the company shifted from a business-to-business model to business-to-consumer, making it&nbsp;the only pool company with a direct relationship to the homeowner, according to the company.</p><p><blockquote>据该公司称，2018年，该公司从企业对企业模式转向企业对消费者模式，使其成为唯一一家与房主有直接关系的泳池公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Fiberglass pools are still a small market in North America compared to international markets, Latham says. The company claims to have a No. 1 market-share position in all the categories it competes in for the North American market.</p><p><blockquote>莱瑟姆说，与国际市场相比，玻璃纤维泳池在北美仍然是一个小市场。该公司声称在北美市场竞争的所有类别中拥有第一的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AGTI":"Agiliti, Inc.","PATH":"UiPath","NPCE":"NeuroPace Inc.","KNBE":"KnowBe4, Inc.","SWIM":"Latham Group, Inc.","SKYT":"SkyWater Technology, Inc.","DV":"DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129471770","content_text":"This week’s offerings don’t have quite the same high profile as last week's highly anticipated IPO ofCoinbase GlobalCOIN 5.96%. Nevertheless, there are several excitingIPOsthat investors should consider this week, including UiPath and Latham Holdings.Here is a look at the expected IPO pricings for the week of April 19.DoubleVerify Holdings: Digital media measurement and analytics companyDoubleVerify Holdings NYSE: DV plansto sell 13.3 million shares at a price point of $24 to $27.The company makes security software for digital advertising and claims to have over 1,000 advertisers and publishers as partners, and more than 45 customers that each account for $1 million in annual revenue for DoubleVerify.The company had revenue of $244 million in fiscal 2020, a year-over-year increase of 34%.NeuroPace: Commercial-stage medical device companyNeuroPace NASDAQ: NPCE says it hasthe first and only commercially-available, brain-responsive system to help fight seizures.The company’s target market is customers who have drug-resistant epilepsy. Over 3,000 patients were served by the company through 2020. Neuropace had revenue of $10 million in fiscal 2020 and is guiding for fiscal 2021 revenue of between $11.1 million and $11.3 million.Over $28 billion is spent annually on epilepsy care in the United States. The company plans to sell 5.3 million shares at a price point of $15 to $17.UiPath:Thebiggest IPOof the week is set to be automation companyUiPath IncNYSEPATH, with aplannedoffering of 21.3 million shares at a price point of $43 to $50.The company “makes software robots so people don’t have to be robots.” The company had annual recurring revenue of $580 million in the fiscal year ended January 31, 2021, for a growth rate of 65%. UiPath says it has over 7,900 customers, with over 1,000 of them paying $100,000 or more annually to the company.The company is targeting a market opportunity of $65 billion and believes its open architecture and end-to-end platform set it apart from competitors.SkyWater Technology:Pure-play technology foundrySkyWater Technology NASDAQ: SKYT offerssemiconductor development and manufacturing services, targeting customers in markets like advanced computing, aerospace, defense, automotive and IoT.The company has 35 customers in its advanced technology services including L3Harris andMicrosoft CorporationMSFT 0.48%. SkyWater was divested from Cypress Semiconductor in 2017. The company had revenue of $140.4 million in 2020.SkyWater plans to sell 5.8 million shares at a price point of $12 to $14.KnowBe4:Security platformKnowBe4 Inc NASDAQ: KNBE isseekingto sell 11.8 million shares at a price point of $16 to $18.The company serves over 37,000 customers globally in markets worth $15 billion. The company had 45% revenue growth and $198 million in annual recurring revenue last year. It plans to rapidly grow its international operations, which made up 11.9% of revenue in fiscal 2020.Zymergen: \"Biofacturing\" companyZymergen NASDAQ: ZY plansto sell 13.6 million shares at a price of $28 to $31.The company is working on bio-based products including films that could be used in rollable mobile tablet devices.The company’s first product, Hyaline, was launched in December 2020, and an additional 10 products are in development. The biofacturing market is worth $1.2 trillion. according to the company.Agiliti:Healthcare service provider Agiliti IncNYSEAGTIsays it hasa customer base of over 7,0000 networks and that 90% of U.S. acute and alternate care facilities are within a 100-mile radius of an Agiliti service center. The company is seeking to sell 26.3 million shares at a price point of $18 to $20.Latham Group:A designer, manufacturer and marketer of in-ground residential pools in North America, Australia and New Zealandplansto go public this week.Latham Group NASDAQ: SWIM plans to sell 20 million shares at a price point of $19 to $21.The company sells fiberglass products that are more durable and use less chemicals, according to the company. Latham sold 8,700 fiberglass pools in 2020 and reported its 11th consecutive year of net sales growth.The company had revenue of $408 million in fiscal 2020, and 59% of it came from in-ground pool sales.In 2018, the company shifted from a business-to-business model to business-to-consumer, making it the only pool company with a direct relationship to the homeowner, according to the company.Fiberglass pools are still a small market in North America compared to international markets, Latham says. The company claims to have a No. 1 market-share position in all the categories it competes in for the North American market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PATH":0.9,"SKYT":0.9,"DV":0.9,"AGTI":0.9,"KNBE":0.9,"SWIM":0.9,"NPCE":0.9,"ZY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344847776,"gmtCreate":1618401416395,"gmtModify":1634293214910,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Take my money&nbsp;","listText":"Take my money&nbsp;","text":"Take my money","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344847776","repostId":"2127454000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101505237,"gmtCreate":1619920351829,"gmtModify":1634209129880,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;Long term gain but short term big pain","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;Long term gain but short term big pain","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Long term gain but short term big pain","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae00cbb67200fa8be149f2676516ae8","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101505237","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346264535,"gmtCreate":1618051217527,"gmtModify":1634295056947,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346264535","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359883630,"gmtCreate":1616381873320,"gmtModify":1634526146152,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cheers","listText":"Cheers","text":"Cheers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359883630","repostId":"1158879714","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158879714","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616380355,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158879714?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-22 10:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Headed For A Collapsing Debt Bubble<blockquote>走向崩溃的债务泡沫</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158879714","media":"zerohedge","summary":"A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimu","content":"<p>A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimulus bill, plus packages passed in other countries, really pull the world economy out of the downturn it has been in 2020? I don’t think so.</p><p><blockquote>一项1.9万亿美元的刺激计划最近在美国签署成为法律。这样的刺激法案，加上其他国家通过的一揽子计划，真的能让世界经济走出2020年的低迷吗？我不这么认为。</blockquote></p><p> The economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing debt. Our energy problems don’t appear to be fixable in the near term, such as six months or a year. Instead, the economy seems to be headed for a collapse of its debt bubble. Eventually, we may see a reset of the world financial system leading to fewer interchangeable currencies, far less international trade and falling production of goods and services. Some governments may collapse.</p><p><blockquote>经济依靠能源运转，远远超过依靠不断增长的债务运转。我们的能源问题似乎无法在短期内解决，比如六个月或一年。相反，经济似乎正走向债务泡沫的崩溃。最终，我们可能会看到世界金融体系的重置，导致可互换货币减少，国际贸易大幅减少，商品和服务生产下降。一些政府可能会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[1] What Is Debt?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[1]什么是债务？</b></blockquote></p><p> I understand debt to be an&nbsp;<i>indirect promise for future goods and services</i>. These future goods and services can only be created if there are adequate supplies of the right kinds of energy and other materials, in the right places, to make these future goods and services.</p><p><blockquote>我认为债务是一种<i>对未来商品和服务的间接承诺</i>这些未来的商品和服务只有在正确的地方有足够的正确种类的能源和其他材料来制造这些未来的商品和服务才能被创造出来。</blockquote></p><p> I think of debt as being a&nbsp;<i>time-shifting device.</i>&nbsp;Indirectly, it is a promise that the economy will be able to provide as many, or more, goods and services in the future compared to what it does at the time the loan is taken out.</p><p><blockquote>我认为债务是<i>时移装置。</i>间接地，这是一种承诺，即与贷款时相比，经济在未来将能够提供同样多或更多的商品和服务。</blockquote></p><p> Common sense suggests that it is much easier to repay debt with interest in a growing economy than in a shrinking economy. Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff unexpectedly ran across this phenomenon in their 2008 working paper,&nbsp;This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises. They reported (p. 15), “It is notable that the non-defaulters, by and large, are all hugely successful growth stories.” In other words, their analysis of 800 years of governmental debt showed that default was almost inevitable if a country stopped growing or started shrinking.</p><p><blockquote>常识表明，在一个增长的经济体中，连本带利偿还债务要比在一个萎缩的经济体中容易得多。卡门·莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）和肯·罗格夫（Ken Rogoff）在他们2008年的工作论文《这次不同：八个世纪金融危机全景》中意外地遇到了这一现象。他们报告（第15页），“值得注意的是，总的来说，非违约者都是非常成功的增长故事。”换句话说，他们对800年政府债务的分析表明，如果一个国家停止增长或开始萎缩，违约几乎是不可避免的。</blockquote></p><p> The IMF estimates that the world economy&nbsp;shrank by 3.5%&nbsp;in 2020. There are many areas with even worse indications: Euro Area, -7.2%; United Kingdom, -10.0%; India, -8.0%; Mexico, -8.5%; and South Africa, -7.5%. If these situations cannot be turned around quickly, we should expect to see collapsing debt bubbles. Even the US, which shrank by 3.4%, needs a rapid return to growth if it is to keep its debt bubble inflated.</p><p><blockquote>IMF估计，2020年世界经济萎缩3.5%。有许多地区的迹象甚至更糟：欧元区，-7.2%；英国，-10.0%；印度，-8.0%；墨西哥，-8.5%；南非为-7.5%。如果这些情况不能迅速扭转，我们应该期待看到债务泡沫的崩溃。即使是萎缩了3.4%的美国，如果要保持债务泡沫膨胀，也需要快速恢复增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[2] The Inter-Relationship Among (a) Growing Debt, (b) Growing Energy Consumption and a (c) Growing Economy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[2](a)债务增长、(b)能源消耗增长和(c)经济增长之间的相互关系</b></blockquote></p><p> When we are far from energy limits, growing debt seems to pull the economy along. This is a graphic I put together in 2018, explaining the situation. A small amount of debt is helpful to the system. But, if there gets to be too much debt, both oil prices and interest rates rise, bringing the braking system into action. The bicycle/economy rapidly slows.</p><p><blockquote>当我们远离能源极限时，不断增长的债务似乎会拉动经济。这是我在2018年整理的一张图，说明了情况。少量的债务对系统有帮助。但是，如果债务过多，油价和利率都会上涨，从而启动制动系统。自行车/经济迅速放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/988ae9ff86e02ba9f0e17f7c656fa38a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 1. The author’s view of the analogy of a speeding upright bicycle and a speeding economy.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图1。作者对飞驰的直立自行车和飞驰的经济的类比的看法。</i></blockquote></p><p> Just as a two-wheeled bicycle needs to be going fast enough to stay upright, the economy needs to be growing rapidly enough for debt to do what it is intended to do. It takes energy supply to create the goods and services that the economy depends on.</p><p><blockquote>正如两轮自行车需要足够快才能保持直立一样，经济也需要足够快的增长才能让债务发挥其预期作用。需要能源供应来创造经济所依赖的商品和服务。</blockquote></p><p> If oil and other energy products are cheap to produce, their benefit will be widely available. Employers will be able to add more efficient machines, such as bigger tractors. These more efficient machines will act to leverage the human labor of the workers. The economy can grow rapidly, without the use of much debt. Figure 2 shows that the world oil price was $20 per barrel in 2020$, or even less, prior to 1974.</p><p><blockquote>如果石油和其他能源产品的生产成本低廉，它们的好处将会广泛存在。雇主将能够增加更高效的机器，如更大的拖拉机。这些更高效的机器将利用工人的人力。经济可以快速增长，而不需要大量的债务。图2显示，2020年世界油价为每桶20美元，1974年之前甚至更低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0713c7ad2aa2952ae70ab31f031409a6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 2. Oil price in 2020 dollars, based on amounts through 2019 in 2019$ from&nbsp;BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy, the inflationary adjustment from 2019 to 2020 based on CPI Urban prices from the US Department of Labor and the average spot Brent oil price for 2020 based on EIA information.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图2。以2020年美元计算的油价，基于BP《2020年世界能源统计评论》中截至2019年的2019年美元金额、基于美国劳工部CPI城市价格的2019年至2020年通胀调整以及基于EIA信息的2020年布伦特原油平均现货价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> Figure 3 below shows the historical relationship between the growth in&nbsp;<i>US energy consumption</i>&nbsp;(red line) and&nbsp;<i>the dollar increase in US debt growth required to add a dollar increase in GDP</i>&nbsp;(blue line). This chart calculates ratios for five-year periods because ratios for individual years are unstable.</p><p><blockquote>下图3显示了<i>美国能源消耗</i>（红线）及<i>美国债务增长的美元增长需要GDP的美元增长</i>（蓝线）。此图表计算五年期的比率，因为个别年份的比率不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657120d86e4004601bc5a5909fa1cc55\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 3. Comparison of five-year average growth in US energy consumption based on EIA data with five-year average amount of added debt required to add $1 of GDP.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图3.基于EIA数据的美国能源消耗五年平均增长与GDP增加1美元所需的五年平均新增债务金额的比较。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on Figure 3, the US average annual growth in energy consumption (red line) generally fell between 1951 and 2020. The quantity of debt that needed to be added to create an additional $1 dollar of GDP (blue line) has generally been rising.</p><p><blockquote>根据图3，1951年至2020年间，美国能源消费年均增长（红线）总体下降。创造额外1美元GDP（蓝线）所需增加的债务数量总体上一直在上升。</blockquote></p><p> According to&nbsp;Investopedia,&nbsp;<i>Gross domestic product</i>&nbsp;(<i>GDP</i>) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period.&nbsp;Notice that there is no mention of debt in this definition. If businesses or governments can find a way to make large amounts of credit available to borrowers who are not very credit worthy, it becomes easy to sell cars, motorcycles or homes to buyers who may never repay that debt. If the economy hits turbulence, these marginal buyers are likely to default, causing a collapse in a debt bubble.</p><p><blockquote>据Investopedia报道，<i>国内生产总值</i> (<i>国内生产总值</i>）是在特定时间段内一国境内生产的所有制成品和服务的货币或市场总价值。请注意，该定义中没有提到债务。如果企业或政府能够找到一种方法，向信用不佳的借款人提供大量信贷，那么向可能永远无法偿还债务的买家出售汽车、摩托车或房屋就变得很容易。如果经济出现动荡，这些边际买家很可能会违约，导致债务泡沫破裂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[3] Analyzing Energy Consumption Growth, Debt Growth and Economic Growth for Broader Groupings of Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[3]分析更广泛年份的能源消费增长、债务增长和经济增长</b></blockquote></p><p> To get a better idea what is happening with respect to energy growth, debt growth, and GDP growth, I created some broader groupings of years, based primarily on patterns in Figure 2, showing inflation-adjusted oil prices. The following groupings of years were chosen:</p><p><blockquote>为了更好地了解能源增长、债务增长和GDP增长方面的情况，我主要基于图2中显示通胀调整后油价的模式，创建了一些更广泛的年份分组。选择了以下年份分组：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>1950-1973</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>1950-1973</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>1974-1980</p><p><blockquote><li>1974-1980</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>1981-2000</p><p><blockquote><li>1981-2000</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>2001-2014</p><p><blockquote><li>2001-2014</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>2015-2020</p><p><blockquote><li>2015-2020</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Using these groupings of years, I put together charts in which it is easier to see trends.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些年份分组，我把更容易看到趋势的图表放在一起。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/602cfb962c02189ea5825a1f4f7d790d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 4. Average annual increase in energy consumption for period shown based on EIA data versus average increase in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for the period shown based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图4.根据EIA数据显示的该期间能源消耗的平均年增幅与根据美国经济分析局数据显示的该期间实际（通胀调整后）GDP的平均增幅。</i></blockquote></p><p> Figure 4 shows that for the US, there has been a general downward trend in the annual growth of energy consumption. At same time, real (that is, inflation-adjusted) GDP has been trending downward, but not quite as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>图4显示，美国能源消费年增长率总体呈下降趋势。与此同时，实际（即经通胀调整的）GDP一直呈下降趋势，但速度没有那么快。</blockquote></p><p> We would expect that lower energy consumption would lead to lower growth in real GDP because it takes energy of the appropriate kinds to make goods and services. For example, it takes oil to ship most goods. It takes electricity to operate computers and keep the lights on. According to the&nbsp;World Coal Association, large quantities of coal are used in producing cement and steel. These are important for construction, such as is planned in stimulus projects around the world.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计，较低的能源消耗将导致实际GDP的较低增长，因为制造商品和服务需要适当种类的能源。例如，运输大多数货物需要石油。操作电脑和保持灯亮着都需要电。据世界煤炭协会称，大量煤炭用于生产水泥和钢铁。这些对于建设很重要，就像世界各地的刺激项目中计划的那样。</blockquote></p><p> Also, on Figure 4, the period 1981 to 2000 shows an uptick in both energy consumption growth and real GDP growth. This period corresponds to a period of relatively low oil prices (Figure 2). With lower oil prices, businesses found it affordable to add new devices to leverage human labor, making workers more productive. The growing productivity of workers is at least part of what led to the increased growth in real GDP.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在图4中，1981年至2000年期间能源消耗增长和实际GDP增长都有所上升。这一时期对应的是油价相对较低的时期（图2）。随着油价下跌，企业发现增加新设备来利用人力是负担得起的，从而提高工人的生产力。工人生产率的提高至少是导致实际GDP增长的部分原因。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dfc9c699891a0b02f9e46e6f3f53bda\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 5. Dollars of additional debt required to add $1 dollar of GDP growth (including inflation), based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图5.根据美国经济分析局的数据，增加1美元GDP增长（包括通货膨胀）所需的额外债务。</i></blockquote></p><p> Figure 5, above, is disturbing. It strongly suggests that the US economy (and probably a lot of other economies) has needed to add an increasing amount of debt to add $1 of GDP in recent years. This pattern started long before President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>上图5令人不安。这强烈表明，近年来，美国经济（可能还有许多其他经济体）需要增加越来越多的债务才能使GDP增加1美元。这种模式早在拜登总统2021年推出1.9万亿美元刺激计划之前就开始了。</blockquote></p><p> To make matters worse, GDP growth in Figure 5 has not been reduced to remove the impact of inflation. On average, removing the impact of inflation reduces the above GDP growth by about half. In the period 2015 to 2020, it took about $4.35 of additional debt to add one dollar of GDP growth, including inflation. It would take about double that amount, or $8.70 worth of debt, to create $1.00 worth of inflation-adjusted growth. With such a low return on added debt, it seems unlikely that the $1.9 trillion stimulus package will increase the growth of the economy very much.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，图5中的GDP增长并没有被降低以消除通货膨胀的影响。平均而言，剔除通货膨胀的影响使上述GDP增长减少了一半左右。在2015年至2020年期间，包括通货膨胀在内，GDP增长1美元需要大约4.35美元的额外债务。需要大约两倍的金额，即价值8.70美元的债务，才能创造价值1.00美元的通胀调整后增长。在新增债务回报率如此之低的情况下，1.9万亿美元的刺激方案似乎不太可能大幅提高经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[4] Falling interest rates (Figure 6) are a major part of what allowed the rapid growth in debt after 1981 shown in Figure 5.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[4]利率下降（图6）是1981年后债务快速增长的主要原因，如图5所示。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74f347d946ebcebc62fe4fdee1dfffd3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"193\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 6. 10-Year and 3-Month US Treasury Rates through February 2021, in a chart prepared by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图6。截至2021年2月的10年期和3个月期美国国债利率，由圣路易斯美联储准备。</i></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, debt is more affordable if the interest rate is lower. For example, auto loans and home mortgages have lower monthly payments if the interest rate is lower. It is also clear that governments need to spend less of their tax revenue on interest rate payments if interest rates are lower. Changes made by US President Ronald Reagan when he took office 1981 also encouraged the use of more debt.</p><p><blockquote>显然，如果利率较低，债务就更容易承受。例如，如果利率较低，汽车贷款和住房抵押贷款的月供也较低。同样清楚的是，如果利率较低，政府需要将更少的税收收入用于利率支付。美国总统罗纳德·里根1981年上任时做出的改变也鼓励了更多债务的使用。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A major concern with respect to today’s debt bubble is the fact that interest rates are about as low as they can go without going negative. In fact, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds is now 1.72%, which is higher than the February 2021 average rate shown on the chart. As interest rates rise, it becomes more costly to add more debt. As interest rates rise, businesses will be less likely to take on debt in order to expand and hire more workers.</p><p><blockquote>关于当今债务泡沫的一个主要担忧是，利率在不为负的情况下已经尽可能低了。事实上，10年期国债利率现在为1.72%，高于图表所示的2021年2月平均利率。随着利率上升，增加更多债务的成本变得更高。随着利率上升，企业将不太可能为了扩张和雇用更多工人而承担债务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[5] Interest expense is a major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners everywhere. Energy costs are another major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners. It makes sense that falling interest rates can partly hide rising energy prices.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[5]利息支出是世界各地政府、企业和房主的主要支出。能源成本是政府、企业和房主的另一项主要开支。利率下降可以部分掩盖能源价格上涨，这是有道理的。</b></blockquote></p><p> A trend toward lower interest rates was needed starting in 1981 because the US could no longer produce large amounts of crude oil that were profitable to sell at less than $20 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices. Lower interest rates made adding debt more feasible. This added debt could smooth the transition to an economy that was less dependent on oil, now that it was high-priced. The lower interest rates helped all segments of the economy adjust to the new higher cost of oil and other fuels.</p><p><blockquote>从1981年开始，利率下降的趋势是必要的，因为美国不再能够生产大量以低于每桶20美元的价格出售的原油，以通胀调整后的价格出售。较低的利率使得增加债务变得更加可行。这种增加的债务可以平稳地过渡到一个不太依赖石油的经济，因为石油价格很高。较低的利率帮助所有经济部门适应新的更高的石油和其他燃料成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[6] The US experience shows precisely how helpful having a rapidly growing supply of inexpensive to produce oil could be to an economy.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[6]美国的经验恰恰表明，快速增长的廉价石油供应对经济有多大帮助。</b></blockquote></p><p> US oil production, excluding Alaska (blue “remainder” in Figure 7), rose rapidly after 1945 but began to decline not long after hitting a peak in 1970. This growing oil production had temporarily provided a huge boost to the US economy.</p><p><blockquote>美国的石油产量，不包括阿拉斯加（图7中的蓝色“剩余部分”），在1945年后迅速上升，但在1970年达到峰值后不久就开始下降。这种不断增长的石油产量暂时为美国经济提供了巨大的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4038b2f211130347e8f49562c4fcac0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 7. US crude oil production, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图7.美国原油产量，基于美国能源信息署的数据。</i></blockquote></p><p> Up until almost 1970, US oil production was rising rapidly. Figure 8 shows that during this period, incomes of both the bottom 90% of workers and the top 10% of workers increased rapidly. Over a period of about 20 years, incomes for both groups grew by about 80%, after adjusting for inflation. On average, workers were about 4% better off each year, with the rapid growth in very inexpensive-to-produce oil, all of which stayed in the US (rather than being exported). US imports of inexpensive-to-produce oil also&nbsp;grew during this period.</p><p><blockquote>直到1970年左右，美国石油产量一直在迅速上升。图8显示，在此期间，底层90%的工人和顶层10%的工人的收入都快速增长。在大约20年的时间里，经通货膨胀调整后，这两个群体的收入增长了约80%。平均而言，随着生产成本非常低的石油的快速增长，工人的收入每年增加约4%，所有这些石油都留在了美国（而不是出口）。在此期间，美国生产成本低廉的石油进口也有所增长。</blockquote></p><p> Once oil prices were higher, income growth for both the lower 90% and the top 10% slowed. With the changes made starting in 1981, wage disparities quickly started to grow. There suddenly became a need for new, high-tech approaches that used less oil. But these changes were more helpful to the managers and highly educated workers than the bottom 90% of workers.</p><p><blockquote>一旦油价上涨，底层90%和顶层10%的收入增长都会放缓。随着1981年开始的变化，工资差距迅速开始扩大。突然间，人们需要使用更少石油的新的高科技方法。但这些变化对经理和受过高等教育的工人比底层90%的工人更有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/863a8245e4a663113ef507527988a806\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 8. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis of IRS data,&nbsp;published in Forbes.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图8.经济学家Emmanuel Saez绘制的图表比较了收入最高10%的人和收入最低90%的人的收入增长。基于对国税局数据的分析，发表在《福布斯》上。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>[7] Most of the world’s cheap-to-extract oil sources have now been exhausted. Our problem is that the world market cannot get prices to rise high enough for producers to cover all of their expenses, including taxes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[7]世界上大部分开采成本低廉的石油资源现已枯竭。我们的问题是，世界市场无法让价格上涨到足以让生产者支付包括税收在内的所有费用。</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on my analysis, the world price of oil would need to be at least $120 per barrel to cover all of the costs it needs to cover. The costs that need to be covered include more items than an oil company would normally include in its costs estimates. The company needs to develop new fields to compensate for the ones that are being exhausted. It needs to pay interest on its debt. It also needs to pay dividends to its shareholders. In the case of shale producers, the price needs to be high enough that production outside of “sweet spots” can be carried on profitably.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的分析，世界石油价格至少需要达到每桶120美元才能支付所有需要支付的成本。需要支付的成本包括的项目比石油公司通常在成本估算中包含的项目还要多。该公司需要开发新的油田来弥补那些正在枯竭的油田。它需要支付债务利息。它还需要向股东支付股息。就页岩生产商而言，价格需要足够高，以便“最佳点”之外的生产能够盈利。</blockquote></p><p> For oil exporters, it is especially important that the sales price be high enough so that the government of the oil exporting country can collect adequate tax revenue. Otherwise, the exporting country will not be able to maintain food subsidy programs that the population depends on and public works programs that provide jobs.</p><p><blockquote>对于石油出口国来说，尤其重要的是销售价格要足够高，以便石油出口国政府能够收取足够的税收收入。否则，出口国将无法维持人口赖以生存的粮食补贴方案和提供就业机会的公共工程方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[8] The world can add more debt, but it is difficult to see how the debt bubble that is created will really pull the world economy forward rapidly enough to keep the debt bubble from collapsing in the next year or two.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[8]世界可以增加更多的债务，但很难看出所制造的债务泡沫将如何真正快速地拉动世界经济向前发展，足以使债务泡沫在未来一两年内不至于崩溃。</b></blockquote></p><p> Many models are based on the assumption that the economy can easily go back to the growth rate it had, prior to COVID-19. There are several reasons why this seems unlikely:</p><p><blockquote>许多模型都基于这样的假设，即经济可以很容易地回到新冠肺炎之前的增长率。这似乎不太可能，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Many parts of the world economy weren’t really growing very rapidly prior to the pandemic. For example, shopping malls were doing poorly. Many airlines were in financial difficulty. Private passenger auto sales in China reached a peak in 2017 and have declined every year since.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在疫情之前，世界经济的许多领域并没有真正快速增长。例如，购物中心表现不佳。许多航空公司陷入财务困境。中国私人乘用车销量在2017年达到顶峰，此后逐年下降。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>At the low oil prices prior to the pandemic, many oil producers (including the US) would need to reduce their production. The 2019 peak in shale production (shown in Figure 7) may prove to be the peak in US oil production because of low prices.</p><p><blockquote><li>在疫情之前的低油价下，许多石油生产国（包括美国）将需要减产。由于价格低廉，2019年页岩油产量的峰值（如图7所示）可能会被证明是美国石油产量的峰值。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Once people became accustomed to working from home, many of them really do not want to go back to a long commute.</p><p><blockquote><li>一旦人们习惯了在家工作，他们中的许多人真的不想回到长途通勤的路上。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>It is not clear that the pandemic is really going away, now that we have kept it around this long. New mutations keep appearing. Vaccines aren’t 100% effective.</p><p><blockquote><li>目前还不清楚疫情是否真的会消失，因为我们已经让它存在了这么久。新的突变不断出现。疫苗不是100%有效。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>As I showed in Figure 5, adding more debt seems to be a very inefficient way of digging the economy out of a hole. What is really needed is a growing supply of oil that can be produced and sold profitably for less than $20 per barrel. Other types of energy need to be similarly inexpensive.</p><p><blockquote><li>正如我在图5中所示，增加更多债务似乎是一种非常低效的将经济从困境中挖出来的方式。真正需要的是越来越多的石油供应，可以以低于每桶20美元的价格生产和销售并获利。其他类型的能源需要同样便宜。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> I should note that intermittent wind and solar energy is not an adequate substitute for oil. It is not even an adequate substitute for “dispatchable” electricity production. It is simply an energy product that has been sufficiently subsidized that it can often make money for its producers. It also sounds good, if it is referred to as “clean energy.” Unfortunately, its true value is lower than its cost of production.</p><p><blockquote>我应该指出，间歇性的风能和太阳能并不能充分替代石油。它甚至不能充分替代“可调度”电力生产。它只是一种能源产品，得到了足够的补贴，经常可以为其生产者赚钱。如果被称为“清洁能源”，听起来也不错。不幸的是，它的真正价值低于它的生产成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[9] What’s Ahead?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[9]前方是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> I expect that oil prices will rise a bit, but not enough to raise prices to the level producers require. Interest rates will continue to rise as governments around the world attempt more stimulus. With these higher interest rates and higher oil prices, businesses will do less and less well. This will slow the economy enough that debt defaults become a major problem. Within a few months to a year, the worldwide debt bubble will start to collapse, bringing oil prices down by more than 50%. Stock market prices and prices of buildings of all kinds will fall in inflation-adjusted dollars. Many bonds will prove to be worthless. There will be problems with empty shelves in stores and gasoline stations with no products to sell.</p><p><blockquote>我预计油价会上涨一点，但不足以将价格提高到生产商要求的水平。随着世界各国政府尝试更多刺激措施，利率将继续上升。随着利率上升和油价上涨，企业的表现将越来越差。这将使经济放缓，债务违约成为一个主要问题。在几个月到一年内，世界范围内的债务泡沫将开始崩溃，使油价下跌50%以上。以通货膨胀调整后的美元计算，股票市场价格和各种建筑的价格将会下跌。许多债券将被证明一文不值。商店和加油站会出现货架空空、没有产品可卖的问题。</blockquote></p><p> People will start to see that while debt is a promise for the equivalent of future goods and services, it is not necessarily the case that those who make the promises will be able to stand behind these promises. Paper wealth generally can be expected to lose its value.</p><p><blockquote>人们将开始看到，虽然债务是对未来商品和服务等价物的承诺，但做出承诺的人不一定能够支持这些承诺。账面财富通常会贬值。</blockquote></p><p> I can imagine a situation, not too many years from now, when<b>countries everywhere will establish new currencies that are not as easily interchangeable</b>with other currencies as today’s currencies are. International trade will dramatically fall. The standard of living of most people will fall precipitously.</p><p><blockquote>我可以想象一种情况，不是太多年后，当<b>世界各地的国家都将建立不那么容易互换的新货币</b>与今天的货币一样。国际贸易将大幅下降。大多数人的生活水平将急剧下降。</blockquote></p><p> I doubt that the new currencies will be electronic currencies. Keeping the electricity on is a difficult task in economies that increasingly need to rely solely on local resources. Electricity may be out for months at a time after an equipment failure or a storm. Having a currency that depends on electricity alone would be a poor idea.</p><p><blockquote>我怀疑新货币会是电子货币。在越来越需要完全依赖当地资源的经济体中，保持电力供应是一项艰巨的任务。设备故障或暴风雨后，电力可能会一次停电数月。拥有一种仅依赖电力的货币将是一个糟糕的主意。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Headed For A Collapsing Debt Bubble<blockquote>走向崩溃的债务泡沫</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHeaded For A Collapsing Debt Bubble<blockquote>走向崩溃的债务泡沫</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-22 10:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimulus bill, plus packages passed in other countries, really pull the world economy out of the downturn it has been in 2020? I don’t think so.</p><p><blockquote>一项1.9万亿美元的刺激计划最近在美国签署成为法律。这样的刺激法案，加上其他国家通过的一揽子计划，真的能让世界经济走出2020年的低迷吗？我不这么认为。</blockquote></p><p> The economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing debt. Our energy problems don’t appear to be fixable in the near term, such as six months or a year. Instead, the economy seems to be headed for a collapse of its debt bubble. Eventually, we may see a reset of the world financial system leading to fewer interchangeable currencies, far less international trade and falling production of goods and services. Some governments may collapse.</p><p><blockquote>经济依靠能源运转，远远超过依靠不断增长的债务运转。我们的能源问题似乎无法在短期内解决，比如六个月或一年。相反，经济似乎正走向债务泡沫的崩溃。最终，我们可能会看到世界金融体系的重置，导致可互换货币减少，国际贸易大幅减少，商品和服务生产下降。一些政府可能会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[1] What Is Debt?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[1]什么是债务？</b></blockquote></p><p> I understand debt to be an&nbsp;<i>indirect promise for future goods and services</i>. These future goods and services can only be created if there are adequate supplies of the right kinds of energy and other materials, in the right places, to make these future goods and services.</p><p><blockquote>我认为债务是一种<i>对未来商品和服务的间接承诺</i>这些未来的商品和服务只有在正确的地方有足够的正确种类的能源和其他材料来制造这些未来的商品和服务才能被创造出来。</blockquote></p><p> I think of debt as being a&nbsp;<i>time-shifting device.</i>&nbsp;Indirectly, it is a promise that the economy will be able to provide as many, or more, goods and services in the future compared to what it does at the time the loan is taken out.</p><p><blockquote>我认为债务是<i>时移装置。</i>间接地，这是一种承诺，即与贷款时相比，经济在未来将能够提供同样多或更多的商品和服务。</blockquote></p><p> Common sense suggests that it is much easier to repay debt with interest in a growing economy than in a shrinking economy. Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff unexpectedly ran across this phenomenon in their 2008 working paper,&nbsp;This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises. They reported (p. 15), “It is notable that the non-defaulters, by and large, are all hugely successful growth stories.” In other words, their analysis of 800 years of governmental debt showed that default was almost inevitable if a country stopped growing or started shrinking.</p><p><blockquote>常识表明，在一个增长的经济体中，连本带利偿还债务要比在一个萎缩的经济体中容易得多。卡门·莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）和肯·罗格夫（Ken Rogoff）在他们2008年的工作论文《这次不同：八个世纪金融危机全景》中意外地遇到了这一现象。他们报告（第15页），“值得注意的是，总的来说，非违约者都是非常成功的增长故事。”换句话说，他们对800年政府债务的分析表明，如果一个国家停止增长或开始萎缩，违约几乎是不可避免的。</blockquote></p><p> The IMF estimates that the world economy&nbsp;shrank by 3.5%&nbsp;in 2020. There are many areas with even worse indications: Euro Area, -7.2%; United Kingdom, -10.0%; India, -8.0%; Mexico, -8.5%; and South Africa, -7.5%. If these situations cannot be turned around quickly, we should expect to see collapsing debt bubbles. Even the US, which shrank by 3.4%, needs a rapid return to growth if it is to keep its debt bubble inflated.</p><p><blockquote>IMF估计，2020年世界经济萎缩3.5%。有许多地区的迹象甚至更糟：欧元区，-7.2%；英国，-10.0%；印度，-8.0%；墨西哥，-8.5%；南非为-7.5%。如果这些情况不能迅速扭转，我们应该期待看到债务泡沫的崩溃。即使是萎缩了3.4%的美国，如果要保持债务泡沫膨胀，也需要快速恢复增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[2] The Inter-Relationship Among (a) Growing Debt, (b) Growing Energy Consumption and a (c) Growing Economy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[2](a)债务增长、(b)能源消耗增长和(c)经济增长之间的相互关系</b></blockquote></p><p> When we are far from energy limits, growing debt seems to pull the economy along. This is a graphic I put together in 2018, explaining the situation. A small amount of debt is helpful to the system. But, if there gets to be too much debt, both oil prices and interest rates rise, bringing the braking system into action. The bicycle/economy rapidly slows.</p><p><blockquote>当我们远离能源极限时，不断增长的债务似乎会拉动经济。这是我在2018年整理的一张图，说明了情况。少量的债务对系统有帮助。但是，如果债务过多，油价和利率都会上涨，从而启动制动系统。自行车/经济迅速放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/988ae9ff86e02ba9f0e17f7c656fa38a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 1. The author’s view of the analogy of a speeding upright bicycle and a speeding economy.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图1。作者对飞驰的直立自行车和飞驰的经济的类比的看法。</i></blockquote></p><p> Just as a two-wheeled bicycle needs to be going fast enough to stay upright, the economy needs to be growing rapidly enough for debt to do what it is intended to do. It takes energy supply to create the goods and services that the economy depends on.</p><p><blockquote>正如两轮自行车需要足够快才能保持直立一样，经济也需要足够快的增长才能让债务发挥其预期作用。需要能源供应来创造经济所依赖的商品和服务。</blockquote></p><p> If oil and other energy products are cheap to produce, their benefit will be widely available. Employers will be able to add more efficient machines, such as bigger tractors. These more efficient machines will act to leverage the human labor of the workers. The economy can grow rapidly, without the use of much debt. Figure 2 shows that the world oil price was $20 per barrel in 2020$, or even less, prior to 1974.</p><p><blockquote>如果石油和其他能源产品的生产成本低廉，它们的好处将会广泛存在。雇主将能够增加更高效的机器，如更大的拖拉机。这些更高效的机器将利用工人的人力。经济可以快速增长，而不需要大量的债务。图2显示，2020年世界油价为每桶20美元，1974年之前甚至更低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0713c7ad2aa2952ae70ab31f031409a6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 2. Oil price in 2020 dollars, based on amounts through 2019 in 2019$ from&nbsp;BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy, the inflationary adjustment from 2019 to 2020 based on CPI Urban prices from the US Department of Labor and the average spot Brent oil price for 2020 based on EIA information.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图2。以2020年美元计算的油价，基于BP《2020年世界能源统计评论》中截至2019年的2019年美元金额、基于美国劳工部CPI城市价格的2019年至2020年通胀调整以及基于EIA信息的2020年布伦特原油平均现货价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> Figure 3 below shows the historical relationship between the growth in&nbsp;<i>US energy consumption</i>&nbsp;(red line) and&nbsp;<i>the dollar increase in US debt growth required to add a dollar increase in GDP</i>&nbsp;(blue line). This chart calculates ratios for five-year periods because ratios for individual years are unstable.</p><p><blockquote>下图3显示了<i>美国能源消耗</i>（红线）及<i>美国债务增长的美元增长需要GDP的美元增长</i>（蓝线）。此图表计算五年期的比率，因为个别年份的比率不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657120d86e4004601bc5a5909fa1cc55\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 3. Comparison of five-year average growth in US energy consumption based on EIA data with five-year average amount of added debt required to add $1 of GDP.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图3.基于EIA数据的美国能源消耗五年平均增长与GDP增加1美元所需的五年平均新增债务金额的比较。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on Figure 3, the US average annual growth in energy consumption (red line) generally fell between 1951 and 2020. The quantity of debt that needed to be added to create an additional $1 dollar of GDP (blue line) has generally been rising.</p><p><blockquote>根据图3，1951年至2020年间，美国能源消费年均增长（红线）总体下降。创造额外1美元GDP（蓝线）所需增加的债务数量总体上一直在上升。</blockquote></p><p> According to&nbsp;Investopedia,&nbsp;<i>Gross domestic product</i>&nbsp;(<i>GDP</i>) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period.&nbsp;Notice that there is no mention of debt in this definition. If businesses or governments can find a way to make large amounts of credit available to borrowers who are not very credit worthy, it becomes easy to sell cars, motorcycles or homes to buyers who may never repay that debt. If the economy hits turbulence, these marginal buyers are likely to default, causing a collapse in a debt bubble.</p><p><blockquote>据Investopedia报道，<i>国内生产总值</i> (<i>国内生产总值</i>）是在特定时间段内一国境内生产的所有制成品和服务的货币或市场总价值。请注意，该定义中没有提到债务。如果企业或政府能够找到一种方法，向信用不佳的借款人提供大量信贷，那么向可能永远无法偿还债务的买家出售汽车、摩托车或房屋就变得很容易。如果经济出现动荡，这些边际买家很可能会违约，导致债务泡沫破裂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[3] Analyzing Energy Consumption Growth, Debt Growth and Economic Growth for Broader Groupings of Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[3]分析更广泛年份的能源消费增长、债务增长和经济增长</b></blockquote></p><p> To get a better idea what is happening with respect to energy growth, debt growth, and GDP growth, I created some broader groupings of years, based primarily on patterns in Figure 2, showing inflation-adjusted oil prices. The following groupings of years were chosen:</p><p><blockquote>为了更好地了解能源增长、债务增长和GDP增长方面的情况，我主要基于图2中显示通胀调整后油价的模式，创建了一些更广泛的年份分组。选择了以下年份分组：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>1950-1973</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>1950-1973</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>1974-1980</p><p><blockquote><li>1974-1980</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>1981-2000</p><p><blockquote><li>1981-2000</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>2001-2014</p><p><blockquote><li>2001-2014</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>2015-2020</p><p><blockquote><li>2015-2020</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Using these groupings of years, I put together charts in which it is easier to see trends.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些年份分组，我把更容易看到趋势的图表放在一起。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/602cfb962c02189ea5825a1f4f7d790d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 4. Average annual increase in energy consumption for period shown based on EIA data versus average increase in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for the period shown based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图4.根据EIA数据显示的该期间能源消耗的平均年增幅与根据美国经济分析局数据显示的该期间实际（通胀调整后）GDP的平均增幅。</i></blockquote></p><p> Figure 4 shows that for the US, there has been a general downward trend in the annual growth of energy consumption. At same time, real (that is, inflation-adjusted) GDP has been trending downward, but not quite as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>图4显示，美国能源消费年增长率总体呈下降趋势。与此同时，实际（即经通胀调整的）GDP一直呈下降趋势，但速度没有那么快。</blockquote></p><p> We would expect that lower energy consumption would lead to lower growth in real GDP because it takes energy of the appropriate kinds to make goods and services. For example, it takes oil to ship most goods. It takes electricity to operate computers and keep the lights on. According to the&nbsp;World Coal Association, large quantities of coal are used in producing cement and steel. These are important for construction, such as is planned in stimulus projects around the world.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计，较低的能源消耗将导致实际GDP的较低增长，因为制造商品和服务需要适当种类的能源。例如，运输大多数货物需要石油。操作电脑和保持灯亮着都需要电。据世界煤炭协会称，大量煤炭用于生产水泥和钢铁。这些对于建设很重要，就像世界各地的刺激项目中计划的那样。</blockquote></p><p> Also, on Figure 4, the period 1981 to 2000 shows an uptick in both energy consumption growth and real GDP growth. This period corresponds to a period of relatively low oil prices (Figure 2). With lower oil prices, businesses found it affordable to add new devices to leverage human labor, making workers more productive. The growing productivity of workers is at least part of what led to the increased growth in real GDP.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在图4中，1981年至2000年期间能源消耗增长和实际GDP增长都有所上升。这一时期对应的是油价相对较低的时期（图2）。随着油价下跌，企业发现增加新设备来利用人力是负担得起的，从而提高工人的生产力。工人生产率的提高至少是导致实际GDP增长的部分原因。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dfc9c699891a0b02f9e46e6f3f53bda\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 5. Dollars of additional debt required to add $1 dollar of GDP growth (including inflation), based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图5.根据美国经济分析局的数据，增加1美元GDP增长（包括通货膨胀）所需的额外债务。</i></blockquote></p><p> Figure 5, above, is disturbing. It strongly suggests that the US economy (and probably a lot of other economies) has needed to add an increasing amount of debt to add $1 of GDP in recent years. This pattern started long before President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>上图5令人不安。这强烈表明，近年来，美国经济（可能还有许多其他经济体）需要增加越来越多的债务才能使GDP增加1美元。这种模式早在拜登总统2021年推出1.9万亿美元刺激计划之前就开始了。</blockquote></p><p> To make matters worse, GDP growth in Figure 5 has not been reduced to remove the impact of inflation. On average, removing the impact of inflation reduces the above GDP growth by about half. In the period 2015 to 2020, it took about $4.35 of additional debt to add one dollar of GDP growth, including inflation. It would take about double that amount, or $8.70 worth of debt, to create $1.00 worth of inflation-adjusted growth. With such a low return on added debt, it seems unlikely that the $1.9 trillion stimulus package will increase the growth of the economy very much.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，图5中的GDP增长并没有被降低以消除通货膨胀的影响。平均而言，剔除通货膨胀的影响使上述GDP增长减少了一半左右。在2015年至2020年期间，包括通货膨胀在内，GDP增长1美元需要大约4.35美元的额外债务。需要大约两倍的金额，即价值8.70美元的债务，才能创造价值1.00美元的通胀调整后增长。在新增债务回报率如此之低的情况下，1.9万亿美元的刺激方案似乎不太可能大幅提高经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[4] Falling interest rates (Figure 6) are a major part of what allowed the rapid growth in debt after 1981 shown in Figure 5.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[4]利率下降（图6）是1981年后债务快速增长的主要原因，如图5所示。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74f347d946ebcebc62fe4fdee1dfffd3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"193\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 6. 10-Year and 3-Month US Treasury Rates through February 2021, in a chart prepared by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图6。截至2021年2月的10年期和3个月期美国国债利率，由圣路易斯美联储准备。</i></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, debt is more affordable if the interest rate is lower. For example, auto loans and home mortgages have lower monthly payments if the interest rate is lower. It is also clear that governments need to spend less of their tax revenue on interest rate payments if interest rates are lower. Changes made by US President Ronald Reagan when he took office 1981 also encouraged the use of more debt.</p><p><blockquote>显然，如果利率较低，债务就更容易承受。例如，如果利率较低，汽车贷款和住房抵押贷款的月供也较低。同样清楚的是，如果利率较低，政府需要将更少的税收收入用于利率支付。美国总统罗纳德·里根1981年上任时做出的改变也鼓励了更多债务的使用。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A major concern with respect to today’s debt bubble is the fact that interest rates are about as low as they can go without going negative. In fact, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds is now 1.72%, which is higher than the February 2021 average rate shown on the chart. As interest rates rise, it becomes more costly to add more debt. As interest rates rise, businesses will be less likely to take on debt in order to expand and hire more workers.</p><p><blockquote>关于当今债务泡沫的一个主要担忧是，利率在不为负的情况下已经尽可能低了。事实上，10年期国债利率现在为1.72%，高于图表所示的2021年2月平均利率。随着利率上升，增加更多债务的成本变得更高。随着利率上升，企业将不太可能为了扩张和雇用更多工人而承担债务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[5] Interest expense is a major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners everywhere. Energy costs are another major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners. It makes sense that falling interest rates can partly hide rising energy prices.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[5]利息支出是世界各地政府、企业和房主的主要支出。能源成本是政府、企业和房主的另一项主要开支。利率下降可以部分掩盖能源价格上涨，这是有道理的。</b></blockquote></p><p> A trend toward lower interest rates was needed starting in 1981 because the US could no longer produce large amounts of crude oil that were profitable to sell at less than $20 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices. Lower interest rates made adding debt more feasible. This added debt could smooth the transition to an economy that was less dependent on oil, now that it was high-priced. The lower interest rates helped all segments of the economy adjust to the new higher cost of oil and other fuels.</p><p><blockquote>从1981年开始，利率下降的趋势是必要的，因为美国不再能够生产大量以低于每桶20美元的价格出售的原油，以通胀调整后的价格出售。较低的利率使得增加债务变得更加可行。这种增加的债务可以平稳地过渡到一个不太依赖石油的经济，因为石油价格很高。较低的利率帮助所有经济部门适应新的更高的石油和其他燃料成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[6] The US experience shows precisely how helpful having a rapidly growing supply of inexpensive to produce oil could be to an economy.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[6]美国的经验恰恰表明，快速增长的廉价石油供应对经济有多大帮助。</b></blockquote></p><p> US oil production, excluding Alaska (blue “remainder” in Figure 7), rose rapidly after 1945 but began to decline not long after hitting a peak in 1970. This growing oil production had temporarily provided a huge boost to the US economy.</p><p><blockquote>美国的石油产量，不包括阿拉斯加（图7中的蓝色“剩余部分”），在1945年后迅速上升，但在1970年达到峰值后不久就开始下降。这种不断增长的石油产量暂时为美国经济提供了巨大的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4038b2f211130347e8f49562c4fcac0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 7. US crude oil production, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图7.美国原油产量，基于美国能源信息署的数据。</i></blockquote></p><p> Up until almost 1970, US oil production was rising rapidly. Figure 8 shows that during this period, incomes of both the bottom 90% of workers and the top 10% of workers increased rapidly. Over a period of about 20 years, incomes for both groups grew by about 80%, after adjusting for inflation. On average, workers were about 4% better off each year, with the rapid growth in very inexpensive-to-produce oil, all of which stayed in the US (rather than being exported). US imports of inexpensive-to-produce oil also&nbsp;grew during this period.</p><p><blockquote>直到1970年左右，美国石油产量一直在迅速上升。图8显示，在此期间，底层90%的工人和顶层10%的工人的收入都快速增长。在大约20年的时间里，经通货膨胀调整后，这两个群体的收入增长了约80%。平均而言，随着生产成本非常低的石油的快速增长，工人的收入每年增加约4%，所有这些石油都留在了美国（而不是出口）。在此期间，美国生产成本低廉的石油进口也有所增长。</blockquote></p><p> Once oil prices were higher, income growth for both the lower 90% and the top 10% slowed. With the changes made starting in 1981, wage disparities quickly started to grow. There suddenly became a need for new, high-tech approaches that used less oil. But these changes were more helpful to the managers and highly educated workers than the bottom 90% of workers.</p><p><blockquote>一旦油价上涨，底层90%和顶层10%的收入增长都会放缓。随着1981年开始的变化，工资差距迅速开始扩大。突然间，人们需要使用更少石油的新的高科技方法。但这些变化对经理和受过高等教育的工人比底层90%的工人更有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/863a8245e4a663113ef507527988a806\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 8. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis of IRS data,&nbsp;published in Forbes.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图8.经济学家Emmanuel Saez绘制的图表比较了收入最高10%的人和收入最低90%的人的收入增长。基于对国税局数据的分析，发表在《福布斯》上。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>[7] Most of the world’s cheap-to-extract oil sources have now been exhausted. Our problem is that the world market cannot get prices to rise high enough for producers to cover all of their expenses, including taxes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[7]世界上大部分开采成本低廉的石油资源现已枯竭。我们的问题是，世界市场无法让价格上涨到足以让生产者支付包括税收在内的所有费用。</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on my analysis, the world price of oil would need to be at least $120 per barrel to cover all of the costs it needs to cover. The costs that need to be covered include more items than an oil company would normally include in its costs estimates. The company needs to develop new fields to compensate for the ones that are being exhausted. It needs to pay interest on its debt. It also needs to pay dividends to its shareholders. In the case of shale producers, the price needs to be high enough that production outside of “sweet spots” can be carried on profitably.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的分析，世界石油价格至少需要达到每桶120美元才能支付所有需要支付的成本。需要支付的成本包括的项目比石油公司通常在成本估算中包含的项目还要多。该公司需要开发新的油田来弥补那些正在枯竭的油田。它需要支付债务利息。它还需要向股东支付股息。就页岩生产商而言，价格需要足够高，以便“最佳点”之外的生产能够盈利。</blockquote></p><p> For oil exporters, it is especially important that the sales price be high enough so that the government of the oil exporting country can collect adequate tax revenue. Otherwise, the exporting country will not be able to maintain food subsidy programs that the population depends on and public works programs that provide jobs.</p><p><blockquote>对于石油出口国来说，尤其重要的是销售价格要足够高，以便石油出口国政府能够收取足够的税收收入。否则，出口国将无法维持人口赖以生存的粮食补贴方案和提供就业机会的公共工程方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[8] The world can add more debt, but it is difficult to see how the debt bubble that is created will really pull the world economy forward rapidly enough to keep the debt bubble from collapsing in the next year or two.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[8]世界可以增加更多的债务，但很难看出所制造的债务泡沫将如何真正快速地拉动世界经济向前发展，足以使债务泡沫在未来一两年内不至于崩溃。</b></blockquote></p><p> Many models are based on the assumption that the economy can easily go back to the growth rate it had, prior to COVID-19. There are several reasons why this seems unlikely:</p><p><blockquote>许多模型都基于这样的假设，即经济可以很容易地回到新冠肺炎之前的增长率。这似乎不太可能，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Many parts of the world economy weren’t really growing very rapidly prior to the pandemic. For example, shopping malls were doing poorly. Many airlines were in financial difficulty. Private passenger auto sales in China reached a peak in 2017 and have declined every year since.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在疫情之前，世界经济的许多领域并没有真正快速增长。例如，购物中心表现不佳。许多航空公司陷入财务困境。中国私人乘用车销量在2017年达到顶峰，此后逐年下降。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>At the low oil prices prior to the pandemic, many oil producers (including the US) would need to reduce their production. The 2019 peak in shale production (shown in Figure 7) may prove to be the peak in US oil production because of low prices.</p><p><blockquote><li>在疫情之前的低油价下，许多石油生产国（包括美国）将需要减产。由于价格低廉，2019年页岩油产量的峰值（如图7所示）可能会被证明是美国石油产量的峰值。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Once people became accustomed to working from home, many of them really do not want to go back to a long commute.</p><p><blockquote><li>一旦人们习惯了在家工作，他们中的许多人真的不想回到长途通勤的路上。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>It is not clear that the pandemic is really going away, now that we have kept it around this long. New mutations keep appearing. Vaccines aren’t 100% effective.</p><p><blockquote><li>目前还不清楚疫情是否真的会消失，因为我们已经让它存在了这么久。新的突变不断出现。疫苗不是100%有效。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>As I showed in Figure 5, adding more debt seems to be a very inefficient way of digging the economy out of a hole. What is really needed is a growing supply of oil that can be produced and sold profitably for less than $20 per barrel. Other types of energy need to be similarly inexpensive.</p><p><blockquote><li>正如我在图5中所示，增加更多债务似乎是一种非常低效的将经济从困境中挖出来的方式。真正需要的是越来越多的石油供应，可以以低于每桶20美元的价格生产和销售并获利。其他类型的能源需要同样便宜。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> I should note that intermittent wind and solar energy is not an adequate substitute for oil. It is not even an adequate substitute for “dispatchable” electricity production. It is simply an energy product that has been sufficiently subsidized that it can often make money for its producers. It also sounds good, if it is referred to as “clean energy.” Unfortunately, its true value is lower than its cost of production.</p><p><blockquote>我应该指出，间歇性的风能和太阳能并不能充分替代石油。它甚至不能充分替代“可调度”电力生产。它只是一种能源产品，得到了足够的补贴，经常可以为其生产者赚钱。如果被称为“清洁能源”，听起来也不错。不幸的是，它的真正价值低于它的生产成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[9] What’s Ahead?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[9]前方是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> I expect that oil prices will rise a bit, but not enough to raise prices to the level producers require. Interest rates will continue to rise as governments around the world attempt more stimulus. With these higher interest rates and higher oil prices, businesses will do less and less well. This will slow the economy enough that debt defaults become a major problem. Within a few months to a year, the worldwide debt bubble will start to collapse, bringing oil prices down by more than 50%. Stock market prices and prices of buildings of all kinds will fall in inflation-adjusted dollars. Many bonds will prove to be worthless. There will be problems with empty shelves in stores and gasoline stations with no products to sell.</p><p><blockquote>我预计油价会上涨一点，但不足以将价格提高到生产商要求的水平。随着世界各国政府尝试更多刺激措施，利率将继续上升。随着利率上升和油价上涨，企业的表现将越来越差。这将使经济放缓，债务违约成为一个主要问题。在几个月到一年内，世界范围内的债务泡沫将开始崩溃，使油价下跌50%以上。以通货膨胀调整后的美元计算，股票市场价格和各种建筑的价格将会下跌。许多债券将被证明一文不值。商店和加油站会出现货架空空、没有产品可卖的问题。</blockquote></p><p> People will start to see that while debt is a promise for the equivalent of future goods and services, it is not necessarily the case that those who make the promises will be able to stand behind these promises. Paper wealth generally can be expected to lose its value.</p><p><blockquote>人们将开始看到，虽然债务是对未来商品和服务等价物的承诺，但做出承诺的人不一定能够支持这些承诺。账面财富通常会贬值。</blockquote></p><p> I can imagine a situation, not too many years from now, when<b>countries everywhere will establish new currencies that are not as easily interchangeable</b>with other currencies as today’s currencies are. International trade will dramatically fall. The standard of living of most people will fall precipitously.</p><p><blockquote>我可以想象一种情况，不是太多年后，当<b>世界各地的国家都将建立不那么容易互换的新货币</b>与今天的货币一样。国际贸易将大幅下降。大多数人的生活水平将急剧下降。</blockquote></p><p> I doubt that the new currencies will be electronic currencies. Keeping the electricity on is a difficult task in economies that increasingly need to rely solely on local resources. Electricity may be out for months at a time after an equipment failure or a storm. Having a currency that depends on electricity alone would be a poor idea.</p><p><blockquote>我怀疑新货币会是电子货币。在越来越需要完全依赖当地资源的经济体中，保持电力供应是一项艰巨的任务。设备故障或暴风雨后，电力可能会一次停电数月。拥有一种仅依赖电力的货币将是一个糟糕的主意。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/headed-collapsing-debt-bubble\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/headed-collapsing-debt-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158879714","content_text":"A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimulus bill, plus packages passed in other countries, really pull the world economy out of the downturn it has been in 2020? I don’t think so.\nThe economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing debt. Our energy problems don’t appear to be fixable in the near term, such as six months or a year. Instead, the economy seems to be headed for a collapse of its debt bubble. Eventually, we may see a reset of the world financial system leading to fewer interchangeable currencies, far less international trade and falling production of goods and services. Some governments may collapse.\n[1] What Is Debt?\nI understand debt to be an indirect promise for future goods and services. These future goods and services can only be created if there are adequate supplies of the right kinds of energy and other materials, in the right places, to make these future goods and services.\nI think of debt as being a time-shifting device. Indirectly, it is a promise that the economy will be able to provide as many, or more, goods and services in the future compared to what it does at the time the loan is taken out.\nCommon sense suggests that it is much easier to repay debt with interest in a growing economy than in a shrinking economy. Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff unexpectedly ran across this phenomenon in their 2008 working paper, This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises. They reported (p. 15), “It is notable that the non-defaulters, by and large, are all hugely successful growth stories.” In other words, their analysis of 800 years of governmental debt showed that default was almost inevitable if a country stopped growing or started shrinking.\nThe IMF estimates that the world economy shrank by 3.5% in 2020. There are many areas with even worse indications: Euro Area, -7.2%; United Kingdom, -10.0%; India, -8.0%; Mexico, -8.5%; and South Africa, -7.5%. If these situations cannot be turned around quickly, we should expect to see collapsing debt bubbles. Even the US, which shrank by 3.4%, needs a rapid return to growth if it is to keep its debt bubble inflated.\n[2] The Inter-Relationship Among (a) Growing Debt, (b) Growing Energy Consumption and a (c) Growing Economy\nWhen we are far from energy limits, growing debt seems to pull the economy along. This is a graphic I put together in 2018, explaining the situation. A small amount of debt is helpful to the system. But, if there gets to be too much debt, both oil prices and interest rates rise, bringing the braking system into action. The bicycle/economy rapidly slows.\n\nFigure 1. The author’s view of the analogy of a speeding upright bicycle and a speeding economy.\nJust as a two-wheeled bicycle needs to be going fast enough to stay upright, the economy needs to be growing rapidly enough for debt to do what it is intended to do. It takes energy supply to create the goods and services that the economy depends on.\nIf oil and other energy products are cheap to produce, their benefit will be widely available. Employers will be able to add more efficient machines, such as bigger tractors. These more efficient machines will act to leverage the human labor of the workers. The economy can grow rapidly, without the use of much debt. Figure 2 shows that the world oil price was $20 per barrel in 2020$, or even less, prior to 1974.\n\nFigure 2. Oil price in 2020 dollars, based on amounts through 2019 in 2019$ from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy, the inflationary adjustment from 2019 to 2020 based on CPI Urban prices from the US Department of Labor and the average spot Brent oil price for 2020 based on EIA information.\nFigure 3 below shows the historical relationship between the growth in US energy consumption (red line) and the dollar increase in US debt growth required to add a dollar increase in GDP (blue line). This chart calculates ratios for five-year periods because ratios for individual years are unstable.\n\nFigure 3. Comparison of five-year average growth in US energy consumption based on EIA data with five-year average amount of added debt required to add $1 of GDP.\nBased on Figure 3, the US average annual growth in energy consumption (red line) generally fell between 1951 and 2020. The quantity of debt that needed to be added to create an additional $1 dollar of GDP (blue line) has generally been rising.\nAccording to Investopedia, Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. Notice that there is no mention of debt in this definition. If businesses or governments can find a way to make large amounts of credit available to borrowers who are not very credit worthy, it becomes easy to sell cars, motorcycles or homes to buyers who may never repay that debt. If the economy hits turbulence, these marginal buyers are likely to default, causing a collapse in a debt bubble.\n[3] Analyzing Energy Consumption Growth, Debt Growth and Economic Growth for Broader Groupings of Years\nTo get a better idea what is happening with respect to energy growth, debt growth, and GDP growth, I created some broader groupings of years, based primarily on patterns in Figure 2, showing inflation-adjusted oil prices. The following groupings of years were chosen:\n\n1950-1973\n1974-1980\n1981-2000\n2001-2014\n2015-2020\n\nUsing these groupings of years, I put together charts in which it is easier to see trends.\n\nFigure 4. Average annual increase in energy consumption for period shown based on EIA data versus average increase in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for the period shown based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.\nFigure 4 shows that for the US, there has been a general downward trend in the annual growth of energy consumption. At same time, real (that is, inflation-adjusted) GDP has been trending downward, but not quite as quickly.\nWe would expect that lower energy consumption would lead to lower growth in real GDP because it takes energy of the appropriate kinds to make goods and services. For example, it takes oil to ship most goods. It takes electricity to operate computers and keep the lights on. According to the World Coal Association, large quantities of coal are used in producing cement and steel. These are important for construction, such as is planned in stimulus projects around the world.\nAlso, on Figure 4, the period 1981 to 2000 shows an uptick in both energy consumption growth and real GDP growth. This period corresponds to a period of relatively low oil prices (Figure 2). With lower oil prices, businesses found it affordable to add new devices to leverage human labor, making workers more productive. The growing productivity of workers is at least part of what led to the increased growth in real GDP.\n\nFigure 5. Dollars of additional debt required to add $1 dollar of GDP growth (including inflation), based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.\nFigure 5, above, is disturbing. It strongly suggests that the US economy (and probably a lot of other economies) has needed to add an increasing amount of debt to add $1 of GDP in recent years. This pattern started long before President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package in 2021.\nTo make matters worse, GDP growth in Figure 5 has not been reduced to remove the impact of inflation. On average, removing the impact of inflation reduces the above GDP growth by about half. In the period 2015 to 2020, it took about $4.35 of additional debt to add one dollar of GDP growth, including inflation. It would take about double that amount, or $8.70 worth of debt, to create $1.00 worth of inflation-adjusted growth. With such a low return on added debt, it seems unlikely that the $1.9 trillion stimulus package will increase the growth of the economy very much.\n[4] Falling interest rates (Figure 6) are a major part of what allowed the rapid growth in debt after 1981 shown in Figure 5.\n\nFigure 6. 10-Year and 3-Month US Treasury Rates through February 2021, in a chart prepared by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.\nClearly, debt is more affordable if the interest rate is lower. For example, auto loans and home mortgages have lower monthly payments if the interest rate is lower. It is also clear that governments need to spend less of their tax revenue on interest rate payments if interest rates are lower. Changes made by US President Ronald Reagan when he took office 1981 also encouraged the use of more debt.\nA major concern with respect to today’s debt bubble is the fact that interest rates are about as low as they can go without going negative. In fact, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds is now 1.72%, which is higher than the February 2021 average rate shown on the chart. As interest rates rise, it becomes more costly to add more debt. As interest rates rise, businesses will be less likely to take on debt in order to expand and hire more workers.\n[5] Interest expense is a major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners everywhere. Energy costs are another major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners. It makes sense that falling interest rates can partly hide rising energy prices.\nA trend toward lower interest rates was needed starting in 1981 because the US could no longer produce large amounts of crude oil that were profitable to sell at less than $20 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices. Lower interest rates made adding debt more feasible. This added debt could smooth the transition to an economy that was less dependent on oil, now that it was high-priced. The lower interest rates helped all segments of the economy adjust to the new higher cost of oil and other fuels.\n[6] The US experience shows precisely how helpful having a rapidly growing supply of inexpensive to produce oil could be to an economy.\nUS oil production, excluding Alaska (blue “remainder” in Figure 7), rose rapidly after 1945 but began to decline not long after hitting a peak in 1970. This growing oil production had temporarily provided a huge boost to the US economy.\n\nFigure 7. US crude oil production, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.\nUp until almost 1970, US oil production was rising rapidly. Figure 8 shows that during this period, incomes of both the bottom 90% of workers and the top 10% of workers increased rapidly. Over a period of about 20 years, incomes for both groups grew by about 80%, after adjusting for inflation. On average, workers were about 4% better off each year, with the rapid growth in very inexpensive-to-produce oil, all of which stayed in the US (rather than being exported). US imports of inexpensive-to-produce oil also grew during this period.\nOnce oil prices were higher, income growth for both the lower 90% and the top 10% slowed. With the changes made starting in 1981, wage disparities quickly started to grow. There suddenly became a need for new, high-tech approaches that used less oil. But these changes were more helpful to the managers and highly educated workers than the bottom 90% of workers.\n\nFigure 8. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis of IRS data, published in Forbes.\n[7] Most of the world’s cheap-to-extract oil sources have now been exhausted. Our problem is that the world market cannot get prices to rise high enough for producers to cover all of their expenses, including taxes.\nBased on my analysis, the world price of oil would need to be at least $120 per barrel to cover all of the costs it needs to cover. The costs that need to be covered include more items than an oil company would normally include in its costs estimates. The company needs to develop new fields to compensate for the ones that are being exhausted. It needs to pay interest on its debt. It also needs to pay dividends to its shareholders. In the case of shale producers, the price needs to be high enough that production outside of “sweet spots” can be carried on profitably.\nFor oil exporters, it is especially important that the sales price be high enough so that the government of the oil exporting country can collect adequate tax revenue. Otherwise, the exporting country will not be able to maintain food subsidy programs that the population depends on and public works programs that provide jobs.\n[8] The world can add more debt, but it is difficult to see how the debt bubble that is created will really pull the world economy forward rapidly enough to keep the debt bubble from collapsing in the next year or two.\nMany models are based on the assumption that the economy can easily go back to the growth rate it had, prior to COVID-19. There are several reasons why this seems unlikely:\n\nMany parts of the world economy weren’t really growing very rapidly prior to the pandemic. For example, shopping malls were doing poorly. Many airlines were in financial difficulty. Private passenger auto sales in China reached a peak in 2017 and have declined every year since.\nAt the low oil prices prior to the pandemic, many oil producers (including the US) would need to reduce their production. The 2019 peak in shale production (shown in Figure 7) may prove to be the peak in US oil production because of low prices.\nOnce people became accustomed to working from home, many of them really do not want to go back to a long commute.\nIt is not clear that the pandemic is really going away, now that we have kept it around this long. New mutations keep appearing. Vaccines aren’t 100% effective.\nAs I showed in Figure 5, adding more debt seems to be a very inefficient way of digging the economy out of a hole. What is really needed is a growing supply of oil that can be produced and sold profitably for less than $20 per barrel. Other types of energy need to be similarly inexpensive.\n\nI should note that intermittent wind and solar energy is not an adequate substitute for oil. It is not even an adequate substitute for “dispatchable” electricity production. It is simply an energy product that has been sufficiently subsidized that it can often make money for its producers. It also sounds good, if it is referred to as “clean energy.” Unfortunately, its true value is lower than its cost of production.\n[9] What’s Ahead?\nI expect that oil prices will rise a bit, but not enough to raise prices to the level producers require. Interest rates will continue to rise as governments around the world attempt more stimulus. With these higher interest rates and higher oil prices, businesses will do less and less well. This will slow the economy enough that debt defaults become a major problem. Within a few months to a year, the worldwide debt bubble will start to collapse, bringing oil prices down by more than 50%. Stock market prices and prices of buildings of all kinds will fall in inflation-adjusted dollars. Many bonds will prove to be worthless. There will be problems with empty shelves in stores and gasoline stations with no products to sell.\nPeople will start to see that while debt is a promise for the equivalent of future goods and services, it is not necessarily the case that those who make the promises will be able to stand behind these promises. Paper wealth generally can be expected to lose its value.\nI can imagine a situation, not too many years from now, whencountries everywhere will establish new currencies that are not as easily interchangeablewith other currencies as today’s currencies are. International trade will dramatically fall. The standard of living of most people will fall precipitously.\nI doubt that the new currencies will be electronic currencies. Keeping the electricity on is a difficult task in economies that increasingly need to rely solely on local resources. Electricity may be out for months at a time after an equipment failure or a storm. Having a currency that depends on electricity alone would be a poor idea.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350215648,"gmtCreate":1616211037884,"gmtModify":1634526709471,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"SPAC is bad","listText":"SPAC is bad","text":"SPAC is bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350215648","repostId":"1126157111","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}