Macrowave的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Macrowave

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

3关注

3粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-10-21

$Hut 8 Mining Corp(HUT)$Go crypto

2021-07-23

$Eastside Distilling, Inc.(EAST)$Great strength over here

2021-07-23

Great B/O few days ago

2021-07-12

$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$Not a lot of goodsetups recently, sigh

2021-07-08

Bluechip

Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至新高</blockquote>

2021-06-25

$Pieris Pharmaceuticals(PIRS)$great B/O, hope won’t be too volatile tho

2021-06-24

No strength man

2021-06-24

$Workhorse(WKHS)$Cmon

2021-06-22

$3D(DDD)$good B/O

2021-06-16

$Snap Inc(SNAP)$Bad day for market man

2021-06-09

Some B/O here as well

2021-06-09

$InnSuites Hospitality(IHT)$good B/O

2021-06-07

$Uxin(UXIN)$Good buy

2021-06-07

$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$My boy

2021-06-04

This stock is crazy

2021-06-04

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Tiger yes

2021-06-04

$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$probably won’t sell until it gets lower but for the sake of memory

2021-05-29

$BioNTech SE(BNTX)$:(

2021-05-29

$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$what’s happening

2021-05-29

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Too the moon (earth)

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3571353525514733","uuid":"3571353525514733","gmtCreate":1608261759356,"gmtModify":1608261759356,"name":"Macrowave","pinyin":"macrowave","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":3,"headSize":3,"tweetSize":57,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.06.11","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.40%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.36%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":853205281,"gmtCreate":1634809500267,"gmtModify":1634810558418,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUT\">$Hut 8 Mining Corp(HUT)$</a>Go crypto","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUT\">$Hut 8 Mining Corp(HUT)$</a>Go crypto","text":"$Hut 8 Mining Corp(HUT)$Go crypto","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d67830a8e5f84eed86bb71647115a1c","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853205281","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":175446894,"gmtCreate":1627047836718,"gmtModify":1631888500001,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EAST\">$Eastside Distilling, Inc.(EAST)$</a>Great strength over here&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EAST\">$Eastside Distilling, Inc.(EAST)$</a>Great strength over here&nbsp;","text":"$Eastside Distilling, Inc.(EAST)$Great strength over here","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59e51b47ece6ee6858efe07f2ff7fde9","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175446894","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172453410,"gmtCreate":1626981064430,"gmtModify":1631893010150,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great B/O few days ago","listText":"Great B/O few days ago","text":"Great B/O few days ago","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/895bfe749107147f1f58a7796b7510c2","width":"750","height":"1751"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172453410","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146727557,"gmtCreate":1626100348979,"gmtModify":1631888348583,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVA\">$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$</a>Not a lot of goodsetups recently, sigh","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVA\">$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$</a>Not a lot of goodsetups recently, sigh","text":"$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$Not a lot of goodsetups recently, sigh","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d785a8c34014ae00cac6748f7f89beed","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146727557","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149208042,"gmtCreate":1625726982386,"gmtModify":1631893010156,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bluechip&nbsp;","listText":"Bluechip&nbsp;","text":"Bluechip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149208042","repostId":"1140881081","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140881081","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625714447,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1140881081?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140881081","media":"The motley fool","summary":"Shares of $Apple$rose 1.8% to a record closing high of $144.57 on Wednesday after a respected Wall Street investment bank issued bullish commentary on the popular tech stock.JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated his overweight rating on Apple's stock yesterday and boosted his share price forecast from $165 to $170. His new estimate implies potential gains to investors of roughly 18% in the coming year.Chatterjee noted that Apple underperformed theS&P 500and$Nasdaq$in the first half of 202","content":"<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么事</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></b>(NASDAQ:AAPL)rose 1.8% to a record closing high of $144.57 on Wednesday after a respected Wall Street investment bank issued bullish commentary on the popular tech stock.</p><p><blockquote>股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）周三上涨 1.8%，至 144.57 美元的历史收盘高点，此前一家受人尊敬的华尔街投资银行对这只受欢迎的科技股发表了看涨评论。</blockquote></p><p> So what</p><p><blockquote>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated his overweight rating on Apple's stock yesterday and boosted his share price forecast from $165 to $170. His new estimate implies potential gains to investors of roughly 18% in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师 Samik Chatterjee 昨天重申了对苹果股票的跑赢大盘评级，并将股价预测从 165 美元上调至 170 美元。他的新估计意味着未来一年投资者的潜在收益约为 18%。</blockquote></p><p> Chatterjee noted that Apple underperformed the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a></b>in the first half of 2021. Yet he expects thetechtitan to post strong sales of both current and future models of the iPhone. Thus, Chatterjee posits that Apple's shares could generate strong gains for shareholders in the second half of the year ahead of the launch of the iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>查特吉指出，苹果的表现逊于<b>标普500</b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a></b>2021年上半年。然而，他预计这家科技巨头将在当前和未来型号的iPhone上销售强劲。因此，查特吉认为，在 iPhone 13 推出之前，苹果股价可能会在下半年为股东带来强劲收益。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在呢</blockquote></p><p> The recent rally in Apple's stock price suggests many investors agree with Chatterjee's bullish outlook. They're likely correct to do so. Robust iPhone volumes tend to also drive sales of Apple's high-margin services and fast-growing wearables revenue. So, if it does deliver blowout iPhone sales figures, Apple could enjoy an earnings bonanza later this year. This potential profit windfall, combined with Apple's bountiful share repurchases and steadily growing dividend, gives shareholders multiple ways to win.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价最近的反弹表明许多投资者同意查特吉的看涨前景。他们这样做可能是正确的。强劲的 iPhone 销量也往往会推动苹果高利润服务的销售和快速增长的可穿戴设备收入。因此，如果 iPhone 确实实现井喷式销售数据，苹果可能会在今年晚些时候享受丰厚的盈利。这种潜在的利润意外之财，加上苹果大量的股票回购和稳步增长的股息，为股东提供了多种获胜方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple Stock Climbed to a New High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The motley fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 11:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么事</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></b>(NASDAQ:AAPL)rose 1.8% to a record closing high of $144.57 on Wednesday after a respected Wall Street investment bank issued bullish commentary on the popular tech stock.</p><p><blockquote>股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）周三上涨 1.8%，至 144.57 美元的历史收盘高点，此前一家受人尊敬的华尔街投资银行对这只受欢迎的科技股发表了看涨评论。</blockquote></p><p> So what</p><p><blockquote>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated his overweight rating on Apple's stock yesterday and boosted his share price forecast from $165 to $170. His new estimate implies potential gains to investors of roughly 18% in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师 Samik Chatterjee 昨天重申了对苹果股票的跑赢大盘评级，并将股价预测从 165 美元上调至 170 美元。他的新估计意味着未来一年投资者的潜在收益约为 18%。</blockquote></p><p> Chatterjee noted that Apple underperformed the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a></b>in the first half of 2021. Yet he expects thetechtitan to post strong sales of both current and future models of the iPhone. Thus, Chatterjee posits that Apple's shares could generate strong gains for shareholders in the second half of the year ahead of the launch of the iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>查特吉指出，苹果的表现逊于<b>标普500</b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a></b>2021年上半年。然而，他预计这家科技巨头将在当前和未来型号的iPhone上销售强劲。因此，查特吉认为，在 iPhone 13 推出之前，苹果股价可能会在下半年为股东带来强劲收益。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在呢</blockquote></p><p> The recent rally in Apple's stock price suggests many investors agree with Chatterjee's bullish outlook. They're likely correct to do so. Robust iPhone volumes tend to also drive sales of Apple's high-margin services and fast-growing wearables revenue. So, if it does deliver blowout iPhone sales figures, Apple could enjoy an earnings bonanza later this year. This potential profit windfall, combined with Apple's bountiful share repurchases and steadily growing dividend, gives shareholders multiple ways to win.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价最近的反弹表明许多投资者同意查特吉的看涨前景。他们这样做可能是正确的。强劲的 iPhone 销量也往往会推动苹果高利润服务的销售和快速增长的可穿戴设备收入。因此，如果 iPhone 确实实现井喷式销售数据，苹果可能会在今年晚些时候享受丰厚的盈利。这种潜在的利润意外之财，加上苹果大量的股票回购和稳步增长的股息，为股东提供了多种获胜方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/07/why-apple-stock-climbed-to-a-new-high-today/\">The motley fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NGD":"New Gold","03086":"华夏纳指","09086":"华夏纳指-U","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/07/why-apple-stock-climbed-to-a-new-high-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140881081","content_text":"What happened\nShares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)rose 1.8% to a record closing high of $144.57 on Wednesday after a respected Wall Street investment bank issued bullish commentary on the popular tech stock.\nSo what\nJPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated his overweight rating on Apple's stock yesterday and boosted his share price forecast from $165 to $170. His new estimate implies potential gains to investors of roughly 18% in the coming year.\nChatterjee noted that Apple underperformed theS&P 500andNasdaqin the first half of 2021. Yet he expects thetechtitan to post strong sales of both current and future models of the iPhone. Thus, Chatterjee posits that Apple's shares could generate strong gains for shareholders in the second half of the year ahead of the launch of the iPhone 13.\nNow what\nThe recent rally in Apple's stock price suggests many investors agree with Chatterjee's bullish outlook. They're likely correct to do so. Robust iPhone volumes tend to also drive sales of Apple's high-margin services and fast-growing wearables revenue. So, if it does deliver blowout iPhone sales figures, Apple could enjoy an earnings bonanza later this year. This potential profit windfall, combined with Apple's bountiful share repurchases and steadily growing dividend, gives shareholders multiple ways to win.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NGD":0.9,"09086":0.9,"03086":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122238141,"gmtCreate":1624621947183,"gmtModify":1631888971329,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PIRS\">$Pieris Pharmaceuticals(PIRS)$</a>great B/O, hope won’t be too volatile tho","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PIRS\">$Pieris Pharmaceuticals(PIRS)$</a>great B/O, hope won’t be too volatile tho","text":"$Pieris Pharmaceuticals(PIRS)$great B/O, hope won’t be too volatile tho","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4bf34918f54b2841c767b2d1fae478d","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122238141","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126149412,"gmtCreate":1624548767136,"gmtModify":1631893010161,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No strength man","listText":"No strength man","text":"No strength man","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06eaf44468f3d11dcdd7ab926712cc4","width":"750","height":"1616"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126149412","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126140103,"gmtCreate":1624548699602,"gmtModify":1631885988352,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKHS\">$Workhorse(WKHS)$</a>Cmon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKHS\">$Workhorse(WKHS)$</a>Cmon","text":"$Workhorse(WKHS)$Cmon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a01bbeac10e611d45a178eb377adf0e","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126140103","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129273868,"gmtCreate":1624375600554,"gmtModify":1631888370480,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDD\">$3D(DDD)$</a>good B/O","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDD\">$3D(DDD)$</a>good B/O","text":"$3D(DDD)$good B/O","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a7188a7732f2e1d82a87fdd1dc8c9a6","width":"750","height":"1616"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129273868","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160432739,"gmtCreate":1623804001421,"gmtModify":1631888437534,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a>Bad day for market man","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a>Bad day for market man","text":"$Snap Inc(SNAP)$Bad day for market man","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2312328d638583bafbce3ec36484fde","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160432739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189319017,"gmtCreate":1623245019339,"gmtModify":1631893010163,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Some B/O here as well","listText":"Some B/O here as well","text":"Some B/O here as well","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d97ec9bd02ef77a52e49583787956873","width":"750","height":"1679"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189319017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189310893,"gmtCreate":1623244991812,"gmtModify":1631884001977,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IHT\">$InnSuites Hospitality(IHT)$</a>good B/O","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IHT\">$InnSuites Hospitality(IHT)$</a>good B/O","text":"$InnSuites Hospitality(IHT)$good B/O","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543a2cfe0dd164fe98c62ecd70095a2d","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189310893","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114238275,"gmtCreate":1623074906997,"gmtModify":1631886709723,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">$Uxin(UXIN)$</a>Good buy","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">$Uxin(UXIN)$</a>Good buy","text":"$Uxin(UXIN)$Good buy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da2bfb4d0f15c66650a2c974c37a764","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114238275","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114685223,"gmtCreate":1623072742162,"gmtModify":1631889094730,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEDS\">$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$</a>My boy","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEDS\">$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$</a>My boy","text":"$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$My boy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9c6367f3c149ed990258370a09a2a71","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114685223","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116492083,"gmtCreate":1622814611842,"gmtModify":1631893010167,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This stock is crazy","listText":"This stock is crazy","text":"This stock is crazy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7998ba5135d81261cb780a4d490098a9","width":"750","height":"1616"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116492083","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116337190,"gmtCreate":1622773702010,"gmtModify":1631893010170,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Tiger yes","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Tiger yes","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Tiger yes","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2e73916753d9d1600a1e3babc1b50e4","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116337190","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118599431,"gmtCreate":1622736613223,"gmtModify":1631889094736,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEDS\">$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$</a>probably won’t sell until it gets lower but for the sake of memory","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEDS\">$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$</a>probably won’t sell until it gets lower but for the sake of memory","text":"$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$probably won’t sell until it gets lower but for the sake of memory","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8554ea688ca551f627ab18cc8e27a53b","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118599431","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3553387701150566","authorId":"3553387701150566","name":"才神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac8301d590c4dfdd3a0f722b51a2767","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3553387701150566","idStr":"3553387701150566"},"content":"好操作[强][鼓掌][美金]","text":"好操作[强][鼓掌][美金]","html":"好操作[强][鼓掌][美金]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137074058,"gmtCreate":1622276944774,"gmtModify":1631883899839,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">$BioNTech SE(BNTX)$</a>:(","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">$BioNTech SE(BNTX)$</a>:(","text":"$BioNTech SE(BNTX)$:(","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b68758932a88753183ebf9a934122581","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137074058","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134628377,"gmtCreate":1622224650999,"gmtModify":1631889094736,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEDS\">$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$</a>what’s happening&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEDS\">$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$</a>what’s happening&nbsp;","text":"$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$what’s happening","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc78d16e2e4025a9664c14167a33aa71","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134628377","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134693956,"gmtCreate":1622219182875,"gmtModify":1631893010170,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571353525514733","idStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Too the moon (earth)","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Too the moon (earth)","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Too the moon (earth)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c29d83cb2b6d2be26f32cd54161e8e7e","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134693956","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":116337190,"gmtCreate":1622773702010,"gmtModify":1631893010170,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571353525514733","authorIdStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Tiger yes","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Tiger yes","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Tiger yes","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2e73916753d9d1600a1e3babc1b50e4","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116337190","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134693956,"gmtCreate":1622219182875,"gmtModify":1631893010170,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571353525514733","authorIdStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Too the moon (earth)","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Too the moon (earth)","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Too the moon (earth)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c29d83cb2b6d2be26f32cd54161e8e7e","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134693956","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114685223,"gmtCreate":1623072742162,"gmtModify":1631889094730,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571353525514733","authorIdStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEDS\">$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$</a>My boy","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEDS\">$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$</a>My boy","text":"$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$My boy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9c6367f3c149ed990258370a09a2a71","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114685223","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105829804,"gmtCreate":1620290430508,"gmtModify":1631890718882,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571353525514733","authorIdStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAC\">$Danaos(DAC)$</a>Was a good buy","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAC\">$Danaos(DAC)$</a>Was a good buy","text":"$Danaos(DAC)$Was a good buy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/776bcc87bb97deb46f69cc17fcb5735e","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105829804","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349592339,"gmtCreate":1617622977321,"gmtModify":1634297512692,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571353525514733","authorIdStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349592339","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353622058,"gmtCreate":1616493496874,"gmtModify":1634525548711,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571353525514733","authorIdStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Avoid these stocks lol","listText":"Avoid these stocks lol","text":"Avoid these stocks lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353622058","repostId":"1158244799","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158244799","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616491298,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1158244799?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-23 17:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Reports Earnings on Tuesday. Why There Might Be Good News.<blockquote>游戏驿站周二公布财报。为什么会有好消息。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158244799","media":"Barrons","summary":"GameStop’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report is due after the market closes on Tuesday. Data fro","content":"<p>GameStop’s&nbsp;fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report is due after the market closes on Tuesday. Data from Placer.ai indicates foot traffic trends at the stores were mostly steady in January, but were rebounding in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站第四财季财报将于周二收盘后发布。Placer.ai 的数据显示，1 月份商店的客流量趋势基本稳定，但最近几周有所反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Placer.ai tracked visitor counts, observing that GameStop’s (ticker: GME) weekly visits were down around 18% year-over-year during the week of Dec. 28. That decline narrowed to 12% the next week, but visitor trends declined for the following four weeks.</p><p><blockquote>Placer.ai 追踪了游客数量，发现游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）在 12 月 28 日当周的每周访问量同比下降了约 18%。接下来的一周，降幅收窄至12%，但接下来的四周游客趋势有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> The retailer has seen improving trends following the week that started Feb. 15, when foot traffic was down 26% year-over-year. Weekly visits were only down 3.9% during the week that started March 8. The firm notes that’s the narrowest year-over-year gap for GameStop in months.</p><p><blockquote>自 2 月 15 日开始的一周以来，该零售商的趋势有所改善，当时客流量同比下降了 26%。从3月8日开始的一周，每周访问量仅下降了3.9%。该公司指出，这是游戏驿站几个月来最小的同比差距。</blockquote></p><p> “GameStop has returned to visit levels found in early January and appears to be on a strong recovery trajectory heading into the spring,” Ethan Chernofsky, vice president of marketing at Placer.ai,wrote in a post.</p><p><blockquote>“Placer.ai 市场营销副总裁伊桑-切尔诺夫斯基（Ethan Chernofsky）在一篇帖子中写道：”游戏驿站的游客数量已恢复到 1 月初的水平，并似乎在进入春季时走上了强劲的复苏轨道。</blockquote></p><p> While a reduction in Covid-19 restrictions in some states, in tandem with less severe weather could be the major factor driving improved visits, Chernofsky notes the brand could also be seeing a boost from renewed attention from the recent GameStop stock saga.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些州减少 Covid-19 限制，加上天气不太恶劣，可能是推动访问量增加的主要因素，但切尔诺夫斯基指出，该品牌也可能因最近游戏驿站股票事件的重新关注而得到提振。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s consensus estimate&nbsp;calls for same-store-sales growth of 4.7% year-over-year during the fiscal fourth quarter, which ended in January, according to FactSet. The company announced on Jan. 11 that same-store-sales were up 4.8% during the nine-week holiday period, which ended Jan. 2. Still, e-commerce sales were up 309%, meaning foot traffic may not give the full picture.</p><p><blockquote>根据 FactSet 的数据，华尔街一致预计，在截至 1 月份的第四财季，同店销售额同比增长 4.7%。该公司于 1 月 11 日宣布，截至 1 月 2 日的九周假期期间，同店销售额增长了 4.8%。尽管如此，电子商务销售额仍增长了 309%，这意味着客流量可能无法反映全貌。</blockquote></p><p> The team at Placer.ai note that AMC Theatres&nbsp;also saw a rebound&nbsp;from a year-over-year decline of 79.2% during the week of Feb. 15 to a year-over-year decline of 47.9% during the week of March 8.</p><p><blockquote>Placer.ai 团队指出，AMC 影院也从 2 月 15 日当周的同比下降 79.2% 反弹至 3 月 8 日当周的同比下降 47.9%。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment Holdings&nbsp;stock (AMC) has rocketed 489% year-to-date, while GameStop stock is up 932%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线控股公司 (AMC) 的股价今年迄今已飙升 489%，而游戏驿站的股价则上涨了 932%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Reports Earnings on Tuesday. Why There Might Be Good News.<blockquote>游戏驿站周二公布财报。为什么会有好消息。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Reports Earnings on Tuesday. Why There Might Be Good News.<blockquote>游戏驿站周二公布财报。为什么会有好消息。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-23 17:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop’s&nbsp;fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report is due after the market closes on Tuesday. Data from Placer.ai indicates foot traffic trends at the stores were mostly steady in January, but were rebounding in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站第四财季财报将于周二收盘后发布。Placer.ai 的数据显示，1 月份商店的客流量趋势基本稳定，但最近几周有所反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Placer.ai tracked visitor counts, observing that GameStop’s (ticker: GME) weekly visits were down around 18% year-over-year during the week of Dec. 28. That decline narrowed to 12% the next week, but visitor trends declined for the following four weeks.</p><p><blockquote>Placer.ai 追踪了游客数量，发现游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）在 12 月 28 日当周的每周访问量同比下降了约 18%。接下来的一周，降幅收窄至12%，但接下来的四周游客趋势有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> The retailer has seen improving trends following the week that started Feb. 15, when foot traffic was down 26% year-over-year. Weekly visits were only down 3.9% during the week that started March 8. The firm notes that’s the narrowest year-over-year gap for GameStop in months.</p><p><blockquote>自 2 月 15 日开始的一周以来，该零售商的趋势有所改善，当时客流量同比下降了 26%。从3月8日开始的一周，每周访问量仅下降了3.9%。该公司指出，这是游戏驿站几个月来最小的同比差距。</blockquote></p><p> “GameStop has returned to visit levels found in early January and appears to be on a strong recovery trajectory heading into the spring,” Ethan Chernofsky, vice president of marketing at Placer.ai,wrote in a post.</p><p><blockquote>“Placer.ai 市场营销副总裁伊桑-切尔诺夫斯基（Ethan Chernofsky）在一篇帖子中写道：”游戏驿站的游客数量已恢复到 1 月初的水平，并似乎在进入春季时走上了强劲的复苏轨道。</blockquote></p><p> While a reduction in Covid-19 restrictions in some states, in tandem with less severe weather could be the major factor driving improved visits, Chernofsky notes the brand could also be seeing a boost from renewed attention from the recent GameStop stock saga.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些州减少 Covid-19 限制，加上天气不太恶劣，可能是推动访问量增加的主要因素，但切尔诺夫斯基指出，该品牌也可能因最近游戏驿站股票事件的重新关注而得到提振。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s consensus estimate&nbsp;calls for same-store-sales growth of 4.7% year-over-year during the fiscal fourth quarter, which ended in January, according to FactSet. The company announced on Jan. 11 that same-store-sales were up 4.8% during the nine-week holiday period, which ended Jan. 2. Still, e-commerce sales were up 309%, meaning foot traffic may not give the full picture.</p><p><blockquote>根据 FactSet 的数据，华尔街一致预计，在截至 1 月份的第四财季，同店销售额同比增长 4.7%。该公司于 1 月 11 日宣布，截至 1 月 2 日的九周假期期间，同店销售额增长了 4.8%。尽管如此，电子商务销售额仍增长了 309%，这意味着客流量可能无法反映全貌。</blockquote></p><p> The team at Placer.ai note that AMC Theatres&nbsp;also saw a rebound&nbsp;from a year-over-year decline of 79.2% during the week of Feb. 15 to a year-over-year decline of 47.9% during the week of March 8.</p><p><blockquote>Placer.ai 团队指出，AMC 影院也从 2 月 15 日当周的同比下降 79.2% 反弹至 3 月 8 日当周的同比下降 47.9%。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment Holdings&nbsp;stock (AMC) has rocketed 489% year-to-date, while GameStop stock is up 932%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线控股公司 (AMC) 的股价今年迄今已飙升 489%，而游戏驿站的股价则上涨了 932%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-reports-earnings-on-tuesday-foot-traffic-at-its-stores-is-improving-51616452564?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-reports-earnings-on-tuesday-foot-traffic-at-its-stores-is-improving-51616452564?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158244799","content_text":"GameStop’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report is due after the market closes on Tuesday. Data from Placer.ai indicates foot traffic trends at the stores were mostly steady in January, but were rebounding in recent weeks.\nPlacer.ai tracked visitor counts, observing that GameStop’s (ticker: GME) weekly visits were down around 18% year-over-year during the week of Dec. 28. That decline narrowed to 12% the next week, but visitor trends declined for the following four weeks.\nThe retailer has seen improving trends following the week that started Feb. 15, when foot traffic was down 26% year-over-year. Weekly visits were only down 3.9% during the week that started March 8. The firm notes that’s the narrowest year-over-year gap for GameStop in months.\n“GameStop has returned to visit levels found in early January and appears to be on a strong recovery trajectory heading into the spring,” Ethan Chernofsky, vice president of marketing at Placer.ai,wrote in a post.\nWhile a reduction in Covid-19 restrictions in some states, in tandem with less severe weather could be the major factor driving improved visits, Chernofsky notes the brand could also be seeing a boost from renewed attention from the recent GameStop stock saga.\nWall Street’s consensus estimate calls for same-store-sales growth of 4.7% year-over-year during the fiscal fourth quarter, which ended in January, according to FactSet. The company announced on Jan. 11 that same-store-sales were up 4.8% during the nine-week holiday period, which ended Jan. 2. Still, e-commerce sales were up 309%, meaning foot traffic may not give the full picture.\nThe team at Placer.ai note that AMC Theatres also saw a rebound from a year-over-year decline of 79.2% during the week of Feb. 15 to a year-over-year decline of 47.9% during the week of March 8.\nAMC Entertainment Holdings stock (AMC) has rocketed 489% year-to-date, while GameStop stock is up 932%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118599431,"gmtCreate":1622736613223,"gmtModify":1631889094736,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571353525514733","authorIdStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEDS\">$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$</a>probably won’t sell until it gets lower but for the sake of memory","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEDS\">$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$</a>probably won’t sell until it gets lower but for the sake of memory","text":"$SemiLEDs(LEDS)$probably won’t sell until it gets lower but for the sake of memory","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8554ea688ca551f627ab18cc8e27a53b","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118599431","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3553387701150566","authorId":"3553387701150566","name":"才神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac8301d590c4dfdd3a0f722b51a2767","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3553387701150566","authorIdStr":"3553387701150566"},"content":"好操作[强][鼓掌][美金]","text":"好操作[强][鼓掌][美金]","html":"好操作[强][鼓掌][美金]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104691654,"gmtCreate":1620381400278,"gmtModify":1631889001461,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571353525514733","authorIdStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EPC\">$Edgewell Personal Care(EPC)$</a>Good B/O but soon will pullback I guess&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EPC\">$Edgewell Personal Care(EPC)$</a>Good B/O but soon will pullback I guess&nbsp;","text":"$Edgewell Personal Care(EPC)$Good B/O but soon will pullback I guess","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b60e3b8629b63f76a3ba85dfbfd0fcb","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104691654","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353168627,"gmtCreate":1616470597069,"gmtModify":1631883989723,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571353525514733","authorIdStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>有望更高","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>有望更高","text":"$Micron Technology(MU)$有望更高","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/497f1e75cdab2f52c5bf744153974bae","width":"828","height":"1590"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353168627","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325662097,"gmtCreate":1615895417519,"gmtModify":1703494618049,"author":{"id":"3571353525514733","authorId":"3571353525514733","name":"Macrowave","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571353525514733","authorIdStr":"3571353525514733"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Look at the steepness of slope before dotcom bububble&nbsp;peak and the one before the current peak,they are different.&nbsp;","listText":"Look at the steepness of slope before dotcom bububble&nbsp;peak and the one before the current peak,they are different.&nbsp;","text":"Look at the steepness of slope before dotcom bububble peak and the one before the current peak,they are different.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325662097","repostId":"1127134490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127134490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615889741,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127134490?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 18:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127134490","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 has been pulled lower  and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotatio","content":"<p>Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&amp;P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.</p><p><blockquote>上周，杰夫·冈拉克 (Jeff Gundlach) 在他最新的 Doubleline 网络广播中展示了一张引人注目的图表，显示纳斯达克与标普500的比率已被拉低（由于纳斯达克表现不佳加上价值股的走强），现在正处于互联网泡沫的峰值水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4617081a74b98cbab2c1287942cb9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"357\">Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"<b>we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"</b>adding that \"<b>the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.</b>In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"</p><p><blockquote>拉里·麦克唐纳（Larry McDonald）周末在他最新的熊市陷阱报告中提到了这张图表，他写道：“<b>我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</b>加上“<b>全球流动性第一和第二大、也可以说是最重要的股票指数正在发出重要的轮动信号。</b>我们认为，科技股和成长型股的跑赢大盘已经结束，价值股和大宗商品股的轮动已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> AsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.<b>In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.</b></p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，虽然最近的单日反弹（周二上涨 4%，周四上涨 2.4%）使纳斯达克 100 指数在四周内首次上涨，但这并不能平息人们的紧张情绪。毕竟，在下降趋势中，大幅上涨的日子并不少见。<b>2000年，当市场开始为期三年的崩盘时，该指数有27个交易日上涨了至少4%。相比之下，1999 年只有六天这样的日子，当时价格翻了一番。</b></blockquote></p><p> “The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “<b>Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“Marketfield Asset Management LLC 首席执行官迈克尔-肖乌尔（Michael Shaoul）说：”熊市的早期阶段通常会出现凶猛的反弹，最终重要的是反弹的持续时间，而不是反弹在一个交易日内的速度。“<b>越来越多的证据表明，科技行业终于放弃了其全球关键领导者的地位。”</b></blockquote></p><p> That’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.<b>Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value</b>.</p><p><blockquote>这给任何经历过网络崩溃的人敲响了警钟。当时，当纳斯达克 100 指数于 2000 年 3 月开始下跌时，同等权重的标普500一直在前进，直到 14 个月后才见顶--这表明资金正在从互联网泡沫中飙升的科技巨头身上转移。<b>最终，纳斯达克 100 损失了一半的价值</b>.</blockquote></p><p>   <b>“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,</b>” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.  <b>“If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”</b>  A rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -<b>have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“人们不应该因为除了科技集团之外，几乎所有其他公司都表现良好而感到安慰、</b>Miller Tabak+Co.的首席市场策略师Matt Maley说。<b>“如果这家科技集团继续表现不佳，最终将拖累股市的其他部分。”</b>根据鲍威尔周四的言论，成长型和科技型股票的轮换只会加速，特别是如果他听起来不够鸽派并再次惊吓市场，从而引发另一场债券暴跌，这意味着成长型股票的抛售——正如我们在以前的许多场合指出的那样——<b>期限接近历史新高，因此仅仅是对冲基金从未如此接触过的债券代理。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c176f70232a97f988ba92c84c6836d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"201\">However, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically<b>5-year rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管在 2 月下旬的“再通胀恐慌”抛售期间，所有的目光都集中在 10 年期国债上，一旦 10 年期国债突破 1.50%，债券清算级联引发了抛售，但国债曲线上下一次清算级联可能开始的地方现在是腹部，因为正如彭博社所写，早在 12 月份，人们的想法是美联储可能会压低长期国债收益率，而现在的问题在于期限较短的国债收益率，特别是<b>5年期利率。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that the<b>Fed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.</b>That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，到期收益率变得不稳定，飙升至之前0.75%的“红线”上方，原因是市场猜测<b>美联储可能需要比官员们表示的提前一整年开始加息周期。</b>这一转变也扰乱了通货膨胀赌注的经典迭代的前景，即 5 年期和 30 年期国债收益率之间的差距不断扩大，尽管刺激推动的复苏叙事刚刚获得动力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4be02c3e2224fb5edfb0e0ed77bcac\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\"><b>\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"</b>said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>“美联储下周将不得不在违背市场预期或允许市场预期维持现状之间徘徊。”</b>巴克莱银行全球国债交易联席主管凯文·沃尔特表示。如果没有美联储的反击，“曲线腹部可能会面临更大的压力”，在这种情况下，最好的加剧因素将是 2 年期收益率与 5 年期和 7 年期利率之间的利差，随着交易员定价紧缩，这些利差还有上升的空间。</blockquote></p><p> And while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,<b>the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.</b>Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大多数投资银行研究部门，当然还有美联储，预计至少要到 2023 年才会出现任何提振，<b>掉期市场反映，美联储在 2022 年底左右将利率从接近于零上调的可能性约为 75%。</b>事实上，沃尔特预计下周不会有重大政策变化，并预计官员们将继续预计利率维持到 2023 年不变，但在最近一轮通胀飙升的情况下，即使什么都不做也可能迫使新一轮抛售，这被视为市场推动迫使鲍威尔进入某种形式的收益率曲线控制。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148711c8ea3822a0af209f086802c068\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"263\">On the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,<b>the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,</b>said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周确实发出 2023 年加息信号的可能性很小，<b>瑞穗国际公司 (Mizuho International Plc) 多资产策略主管彼得·查特韦尔 (Peter Chatwell) 表示，市场可能会将加息预期带入 2022 年上半年，1 年期远期 5 年期利率可能会上调 50 个基点，</b>在一封电子邮件中说道。这还将导致从增长转向价值的新轮动，进一步压低上图所示的SPX纳斯达克。</blockquote></p><p> That said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，大多数人预计鲍威尔不会解决长期或最近的持续抛售问题——美联储主席只是略微提及了导致 10 年期国债收益率升至 1.6% 以上的债券市场低迷。他强调了金融状况的重要性，尽管随着收益率飙升，科技股周五确实下跌，但金融状况仍然宽松。</blockquote></p><p> None of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.</p><p><blockquote>这些都无助于缓解通胀担忧，因为市场担心美联储正在迅速落后于曲线。正如我们上周指出的，5 年期通胀预期达到 2008 年以来的最高水平，以及强劲的就业数据，只会加剧人们对美联储需要比预测更快收紧货币政策的押注。投机挤压了 5 年至 30 年更陡峭曲线的赌注，将利差从 2 月份 167 个基点的 6 年多高点缩小至略高于 150 个基点。0.84% 的 5 年期国债收益率远低于去年以来的最高水平。但与此同时，由于美联储将在不久的将来将利率维持在接近于零的水平，两年期利率仍接近历史低点。这使得人们对广受关注的 10 年期国债利差以及 5 年期和 7 年期等其他期限的利差的押注得以保持。</blockquote></p><p> And with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.</p><p><blockquote>随着前端被锚定很长很长一段时间，问题就变成了什么是最有利可图的陡峭贸易。“Incapital 高级交易员兼首席市场策略师帕特里克-利里（Patrick Leary）说：”有些陡峭的幅度比其他幅度更好。他预计 2S10 将继续扩大，但已在陡峭的道路上获利了结，并正在寻找更好的点重新进入。其他人则看到了 5 至 30 年陡峭期的潜力。道明证券建议以 146.5 个基点入场，目标为 170 个基点，理由是加息的高门槛以及息票供应增加的前景。</blockquote></p><p> Taking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.</p><p><blockquote>退一步说，交易员之所以如此关注曲线的 5 年期部分，即 “腹部 ”，是因为如果加息猜测进一步升温，该部分被视为可能首当其冲的地方，因为预计大部分解禁机制将在现在发行的 5 年期国债到期日内发生。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.<b>In swaptions,</b><b><u>a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis</u></b><b>.</b></p><p><blockquote>此外，正如彭博社指出的那样，市场的某些角落已经将注意力转向多次加息的可能性。<b>在交换选项中，</b><b><u>根据巴克莱银行的分析，出现了一种立场，目标是美联储在 2025 年 3 月之前加息 7 至 8 次</u></b><b>.</b></blockquote></p><p> There is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>当然，市场也存在超前的风险--美国银行最近发布的 RIC 报告的要点是，该报告认为，任何地方的持续通胀都不足以证明 2022 年加息的合理性，更不用说到 2025 年加息了 7 次了： “Insight Investment 美国交易主管杰米-安德森（Jamie Anderson）说：”市场可能已经有点超前了，”导致 5 年期国债利率上涨过多。他说，如果数据疲软，或者美联储按兵不动的时间超过预期，“腹部应该会反弹，曲线会再次陡峭”。</blockquote></p><p> For Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Incapital 的 Leary 来说，5S30 差距的缩小是因为官员们可能会在下周讨论甚至宣布一个转折点。他说，这种操作涉及出售期限较短的资产并购买期限较长的资产以控制收益率，会给腹部带来更大的压力。在此之前，欧洲央行将决定加快债券购买步伐。</blockquote></p><p> “All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.<b>“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“利里说：”所有这些交易在很大程度上取决于美联储是否袖手旁观，不改变其政策立场。<b>“市场肯定是在和美联储玩吃鸡的游戏，在收紧金融条件并迫使美联储介入之前，先测试收益率能达到多高。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,<b>found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，尽管一些策略师忽略了成长型股票的收益率风险，声称随着时间的推移，科技股与美国国债的关系变化无常，但内德·戴维斯研究公司首席全球宏观策略师乔·卡利什表示，<b>研究发现，自 2014 年以来，纳斯达克 100 指数的远期收益率--其市盈率的倒数，即市盈率越高，股票越便宜--几乎与预测的公司债券利率一致。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario where<b>the Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.</b>If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.</p><p><blockquote>在他的模型中，如果今年 10 年期国债收益率升至 2%，这反过来可能会推动长期 Baa 评级债券利率升至 4.5%，这种情况下<b>在其他条件相同的情况下，纳斯达克 100 指数必须下跌 20% 才能保持吸引力。</b>卡利什说，如果收益率攀升，但纳斯达克没有变动，这将表明估值过高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e1270022eb5742b2cf2a7c328a5d897\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"380\">Also keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，即使在最近下跌之后，纳斯达克 100 指数的市盈率（为 28）相对于其他股票来说也远非便宜，并且比标普500溢价 7%。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&amp;P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着航空公司和汽车制造商等受大流行病打击的企业卷土重来，自 2009 年以来除一年外，其他所有年份都维持了科技行业优异表现的增长优势即将消失--至少在未来两年内是这样。软件和互联网公司的利润预计今年将增长 22%，2022 年将增长 12%。两者都落后于标普500，后者的盈利预计将分别增长 24% 和 15%。</blockquote></p><p> So going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group 首席投资策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）认为，回到榜首，纳斯达克 100 指数即将达到相对顶峰，不考虑下行风险将是一个错误。</blockquote></p><p> “New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.<b>“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”</b></p><p><blockquote>“他说：”新时代的投资正处于一个重要的十字路口。<b>“在纳斯达克和科技股长期以来大面积跑赢大盘之后，预见一个表现不佳、盘整甚至彻底崩盘的阶段并非没有道理。”</b></blockquote></p><p> If all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:</p><p><blockquote>如果这一切听起来不必要的复杂，我们提醒您荷兰合作银行的迈克尔·埃弗里昨晚所说的话，这可能是对美联储选择的最佳总结：</blockquote></p><p>   \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).  <b>As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"</b>  In short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chair<i><b>doesn't</b></i>do anything, and damned if he&nbsp;<u><b>does</b></u>...</p><p><blockquote>“如果鲍威尔什么都不做，我们可能会处于 2013 年式缩减规模的边缘。这将给包括东京在内的世界各地市场带来哥斯拉大小的冲击波。(我现在想起了上世纪七八十年代的英国电视广告，在广告中，一个模拟疯子会吃掉全球著名的地标，然后决定他更喜欢某种糖果，“甚至比火炉里的手推车还要嚼”。）“当然，鲍威尔可以说些什么，也可以做些什么：扭转和喊叫行动；或者 YCC。首先，这将表明财政部和美联储之间存在脱节，这并不理想。此外，这样的举措将引发市场大幅走平，但是两种不同的（短端）。或者只是长尾）。<b>正如我在这里不断重复的那样，YCC 还将为一些严肃的新史诗冒险打开大门，比如打开神秘的巨门，金刚就在大门后面被发现在他的偏远岛屿上。”</b>简而言之，如果美联储主席<i><b>没有</b></i>做任何事，如果他<u><b>确实</b></u>...</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-16 18:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&amp;P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.</p><p><blockquote>上周，杰夫·冈拉克 (Jeff Gundlach) 在他最新的 Doubleline 网络广播中展示了一张引人注目的图表，显示纳斯达克与标普500的比率已被拉低（由于纳斯达克表现不佳加上价值股的走强），现在正处于互联网泡沫的峰值水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4617081a74b98cbab2c1287942cb9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"357\">Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"<b>we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"</b>adding that \"<b>the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.</b>In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"</p><p><blockquote>拉里·麦克唐纳（Larry McDonald）周末在他最新的熊市陷阱报告中提到了这张图表，他写道：“<b>我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</b>加上“<b>全球流动性第一和第二大、也可以说是最重要的股票指数正在发出重要的轮动信号。</b>我们认为，科技股和成长型股的跑赢大盘已经结束，价值股和大宗商品股的轮动已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> AsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.<b>In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.</b></p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，虽然最近的单日反弹（周二上涨 4%，周四上涨 2.4%）使纳斯达克 100 指数在四周内首次上涨，但这并不能平息人们的紧张情绪。毕竟，在下降趋势中，大幅上涨的日子并不少见。<b>2000年，当市场开始为期三年的崩盘时，该指数有27个交易日上涨了至少4%。相比之下，1999 年只有六天这样的日子，当时价格翻了一番。</b></blockquote></p><p> “The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “<b>Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“Marketfield Asset Management LLC 首席执行官迈克尔-肖乌尔（Michael Shaoul）说：”熊市的早期阶段通常会出现凶猛的反弹，最终重要的是反弹的持续时间，而不是反弹在一个交易日内的速度。“<b>越来越多的证据表明，科技行业终于放弃了其全球关键领导者的地位。”</b></blockquote></p><p> That’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.<b>Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value</b>.</p><p><blockquote>这给任何经历过网络崩溃的人敲响了警钟。当时，当纳斯达克 100 指数于 2000 年 3 月开始下跌时，同等权重的标普500一直在前进，直到 14 个月后才见顶--这表明资金正在从互联网泡沫中飙升的科技巨头身上转移。<b>最终，纳斯达克 100 损失了一半的价值</b>.</blockquote></p><p>   <b>“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,</b>” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.  <b>“If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”</b>  A rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -<b>have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“人们不应该因为除了科技集团之外，几乎所有其他公司都表现良好而感到安慰、</b>Miller Tabak+Co.的首席市场策略师Matt Maley说。<b>“如果这家科技集团继续表现不佳，最终将拖累股市的其他部分。”</b>根据鲍威尔周四的言论，成长型和科技型股票的轮换只会加速，特别是如果他听起来不够鸽派并再次惊吓市场，从而引发另一场债券暴跌，这意味着成长型股票的抛售——正如我们在以前的许多场合指出的那样——<b>期限接近历史新高，因此仅仅是对冲基金从未如此接触过的债券代理。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c176f70232a97f988ba92c84c6836d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"201\">However, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically<b>5-year rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管在 2 月下旬的“再通胀恐慌”抛售期间，所有的目光都集中在 10 年期国债上，一旦 10 年期国债突破 1.50%，债券清算级联引发了抛售，但国债曲线上下一次清算级联可能开始的地方现在是腹部，因为正如彭博社所写，早在 12 月份，人们的想法是美联储可能会压低长期国债收益率，而现在的问题在于期限较短的国债收益率，特别是<b>5年期利率。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that the<b>Fed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.</b>That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，到期收益率变得不稳定，飙升至之前0.75%的“红线”上方，原因是市场猜测<b>美联储可能需要比官员们表示的提前一整年开始加息周期。</b>这一转变也扰乱了通货膨胀赌注的经典迭代的前景，即 5 年期和 30 年期国债收益率之间的差距不断扩大，尽管刺激推动的复苏叙事刚刚获得动力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4be02c3e2224fb5edfb0e0ed77bcac\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\"><b>\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"</b>said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>“美联储下周将不得不在违背市场预期或允许市场预期维持现状之间徘徊。”</b>巴克莱银行全球国债交易联席主管凯文·沃尔特表示。如果没有美联储的反击，“曲线腹部可能会面临更大的压力”，在这种情况下，最好的加剧因素将是 2 年期收益率与 5 年期和 7 年期利率之间的利差，随着交易员定价紧缩，这些利差还有上升的空间。</blockquote></p><p> And while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,<b>the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.</b>Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大多数投资银行研究部门，当然还有美联储，预计至少要到 2023 年才会出现任何提振，<b>掉期市场反映，美联储在 2022 年底左右将利率从接近于零上调的可能性约为 75%。</b>事实上，沃尔特预计下周不会有重大政策变化，并预计官员们将继续预计利率维持到 2023 年不变，但在最近一轮通胀飙升的情况下，即使什么都不做也可能迫使新一轮抛售，这被视为市场推动迫使鲍威尔进入某种形式的收益率曲线控制。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148711c8ea3822a0af209f086802c068\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"263\">On the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,<b>the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,</b>said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周确实发出 2023 年加息信号的可能性很小，<b>瑞穗国际公司 (Mizuho International Plc) 多资产策略主管彼得·查特韦尔 (Peter Chatwell) 表示，市场可能会将加息预期带入 2022 年上半年，1 年期远期 5 年期利率可能会上调 50 个基点，</b>在一封电子邮件中说道。这还将导致从增长转向价值的新轮动，进一步压低上图所示的SPX纳斯达克。</blockquote></p><p> That said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，大多数人预计鲍威尔不会解决长期或最近的持续抛售问题——美联储主席只是略微提及了导致 10 年期国债收益率升至 1.6% 以上的债券市场低迷。他强调了金融状况的重要性，尽管随着收益率飙升，科技股周五确实下跌，但金融状况仍然宽松。</blockquote></p><p> None of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.</p><p><blockquote>这些都无助于缓解通胀担忧，因为市场担心美联储正在迅速落后于曲线。正如我们上周指出的，5 年期通胀预期达到 2008 年以来的最高水平，以及强劲的就业数据，只会加剧人们对美联储需要比预测更快收紧货币政策的押注。投机挤压了 5 年至 30 年更陡峭曲线的赌注，将利差从 2 月份 167 个基点的 6 年多高点缩小至略高于 150 个基点。0.84% 的 5 年期国债收益率远低于去年以来的最高水平。但与此同时，由于美联储将在不久的将来将利率维持在接近于零的水平，两年期利率仍接近历史低点。这使得人们对广受关注的 10 年期国债利差以及 5 年期和 7 年期等其他期限的利差的押注得以保持。</blockquote></p><p> And with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.</p><p><blockquote>随着前端被锚定很长很长一段时间，问题就变成了什么是最有利可图的陡峭贸易。“Incapital 高级交易员兼首席市场策略师帕特里克-利里（Patrick Leary）说：”有些陡峭的幅度比其他幅度更好。他预计 2S10 将继续扩大，但已在陡峭的道路上获利了结，并正在寻找更好的点重新进入。其他人则看到了 5 至 30 年陡峭期的潜力。道明证券建议以 146.5 个基点入场，目标为 170 个基点，理由是加息的高门槛以及息票供应增加的前景。</blockquote></p><p> Taking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.</p><p><blockquote>退一步说，交易员之所以如此关注曲线的 5 年期部分，即 “腹部 ”，是因为如果加息猜测进一步升温，该部分被视为可能首当其冲的地方，因为预计大部分解禁机制将在现在发行的 5 年期国债到期日内发生。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.<b>In swaptions,</b><b><u>a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis</u></b><b>.</b></p><p><blockquote>此外，正如彭博社指出的那样，市场的某些角落已经将注意力转向多次加息的可能性。<b>在交换选项中，</b><b><u>根据巴克莱银行的分析，出现了一种立场，目标是美联储在 2025 年 3 月之前加息 7 至 8 次</u></b><b>.</b></blockquote></p><p> There is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>当然，市场也存在超前的风险--美国银行最近发布的 RIC 报告的要点是，该报告认为，任何地方的持续通胀都不足以证明 2022 年加息的合理性，更不用说到 2025 年加息了 7 次了： “Insight Investment 美国交易主管杰米-安德森（Jamie Anderson）说：”市场可能已经有点超前了，”导致 5 年期国债利率上涨过多。他说，如果数据疲软，或者美联储按兵不动的时间超过预期，“腹部应该会反弹，曲线会再次陡峭”。</blockquote></p><p> For Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Incapital 的 Leary 来说，5S30 差距的缩小是因为官员们可能会在下周讨论甚至宣布一个转折点。他说，这种操作涉及出售期限较短的资产并购买期限较长的资产以控制收益率，会给腹部带来更大的压力。在此之前，欧洲央行将决定加快债券购买步伐。</blockquote></p><p> “All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.<b>“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“利里说：”所有这些交易在很大程度上取决于美联储是否袖手旁观，不改变其政策立场。<b>“市场肯定是在和美联储玩吃鸡的游戏，在收紧金融条件并迫使美联储介入之前，先测试收益率能达到多高。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,<b>found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，尽管一些策略师忽略了成长型股票的收益率风险，声称随着时间的推移，科技股与美国国债的关系变化无常，但内德·戴维斯研究公司首席全球宏观策略师乔·卡利什表示，<b>研究发现，自 2014 年以来，纳斯达克 100 指数的远期收益率--其市盈率的倒数，即市盈率越高，股票越便宜--几乎与预测的公司债券利率一致。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario where<b>the Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.</b>If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.</p><p><blockquote>在他的模型中，如果今年 10 年期国债收益率升至 2%，这反过来可能会推动长期 Baa 评级债券利率升至 4.5%，这种情况下<b>在其他条件相同的情况下，纳斯达克 100 指数必须下跌 20% 才能保持吸引力。</b>卡利什说，如果收益率攀升，但纳斯达克没有变动，这将表明估值过高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e1270022eb5742b2cf2a7c328a5d897\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"380\">Also keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，即使在最近下跌之后，纳斯达克 100 指数的市盈率（为 28）相对于其他股票来说也远非便宜，并且比标普500溢价 7%。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&amp;P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着航空公司和汽车制造商等受大流行病打击的企业卷土重来，自 2009 年以来除一年外，其他所有年份都维持了科技行业优异表现的增长优势即将消失--至少在未来两年内是这样。软件和互联网公司的利润预计今年将增长 22%，2022 年将增长 12%。两者都落后于标普500，后者的盈利预计将分别增长 24% 和 15%。</blockquote></p><p> So going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group 首席投资策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）认为，回到榜首，纳斯达克 100 指数即将达到相对顶峰，不考虑下行风险将是一个错误。</blockquote></p><p> “New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.<b>“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”</b></p><p><blockquote>“他说：”新时代的投资正处于一个重要的十字路口。<b>“在纳斯达克和科技股长期以来大面积跑赢大盘之后，预见一个表现不佳、盘整甚至彻底崩盘的阶段并非没有道理。”</b></blockquote></p><p> If all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:</p><p><blockquote>如果这一切听起来不必要的复杂，我们提醒您荷兰合作银行的迈克尔·埃弗里昨晚所说的话，这可能是对美联储选择的最佳总结：</blockquote></p><p>   \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).  <b>As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"</b>  In short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chair<i><b>doesn't</b></i>do anything, and damned if he&nbsp;<u><b>does</b></u>...</p><p><blockquote>“如果鲍威尔什么都不做，我们可能会处于 2013 年式缩减规模的边缘。这将给包括东京在内的世界各地市场带来哥斯拉大小的冲击波。(我现在想起了上世纪七八十年代的英国电视广告，在广告中，一个模拟疯子会吃掉全球著名的地标，然后决定他更喜欢某种糖果，“甚至比火炉里的手推车还要嚼”。）“当然，鲍威尔可以说些什么，也可以做些什么：扭转和喊叫行动；或者 YCC。首先，这将表明财政部和美联储之间存在脱节，这并不理想。此外，这样的举措将引发市场大幅走平，但是两种不同的（短端）。或者只是长尾）。<b>正如我在这里不断重复的那样，YCC 还将为一些严肃的新史诗冒险打开大门，比如打开神秘的巨门，金刚就在大门后面被发现在他的偏远岛屿上。”</b>简而言之，如果美联储主席<i><b>没有</b></i>做任何事，如果他<u><b>确实</b></u>...</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-sitting-incredibly-important-turning-point\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-sitting-incredibly-important-turning-point","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127134490","content_text":"Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.\nPicking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"\nAsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.\n“The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"\nThat’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value.\n\n“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.\n “If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”\n\nA rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.\nHowever, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically5-year rates.\nYields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that theFed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.\n\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.\nAnd while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.\nOn the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.\nThat said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.\nNone of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.\nAnd with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.\nTaking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.\nFurthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.In swaptions,a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis.\nThere is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.\nFor Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.\n“All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"\nMeanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.\nIn his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario wherethe Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.\nAlso keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&P 500.\nFinally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.\nSo going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.\n“New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”\nIf all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:\n\n \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).\n As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"\n\nIn short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chairdoesn'tdo anything, and damned if he does...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}