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追风的咕咕

追风的咕咕

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追风的咕咕

2023-12-12

天天最大的乐趣就是a股反攻国家队进场

刚刚，A股重磅信号！"牛市旗手"大反攻，外资突然转向，"国家队"再度进场？

追风的咕咕

2023-03-06

好文

美联储会加息50个基点吗？

追风的咕咕

2023-03-01

他就差把所有的都写上了也就这几个你问三个就行了[捂脸]

I Asked ChatGPT for 10 EV Stocks to Buy. Here’s What It Recommended

追风的咕咕

2023-01-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 现在市场是对经济衰退的恐慌大于加息吗

追风的咕咕

2022-10-28

$老虎证券(TIGR)$不给蛋，就捣糖[龇牙]

追风的咕咕

2022-09-27

看来机构买了不少put[汗颜]

11月继续75基点？华尔街加息预期爆棚

追风的咕咕

2022-09-19

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$涨点吧兄弟我买的期权[捂脸]

追风的咕咕

2022-09-14

加息100基点，可以，但没必要

抱歉，原内容已删除

追风的咕咕

2021-05-29

$特斯拉(TSLA)$给我杀

追风的咕咕

2021-02-26

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$这还有底吗。子弹都没了

追风的咕咕

2021-02-16

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 我叼这个财报还带修改的

追风的咕咕

2021-02-16

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$韭菜现在卖的越多机构收的就越多，留下长持的未来回报的越多。

追风的咕咕

2021-02-12

$Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$明天还能涨吗[捂脸] 淦

追风的咕咕

2021-02-12

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 应该会到31-33左右反弹

追风的咕咕

2021-02-10

$Velodyne Lidar Inc(VLDR)$该突破一下了吧[捂脸]

追风的咕咕

2021-02-03

$小米集团-W(01810)$为什么小米这么多好新闻就是不涨呢[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]

追风的咕咕

2021-02-03

$Nano Dimension Ltd.(NNDM)$怎么了庄家上班了？

追风的咕咕

2021-01-27

$AMC院线(AMC)$ 这要停多久。。。昨天nndm 就赶上停牌

追风的咕咕

2021-01-27

$AMC院线(AMC)$兄弟们我也不要求多少 3倍就OK [笑哭] [笑哭]

追风的咕咕

2021-01-27

$AMC院线(AMC)$是有点nb嗷。

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就是a股反攻 国家队进场&nbsp;","listText":"天天最大的乐趣 就是a股反攻 国家队进场&nbsp;","text":"天天最大的乐趣 就是a股反攻 国家队进场","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251151496532200","repostId":"1181367357","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181367357","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1702281589,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181367357?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-11 15:59","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"刚刚，A股重磅信号！\"牛市旗手\"大反攻，外资突然转向，\"国家队\"再度进场？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181367357","media":"券商中国","summary":"就在刚才，A股发出重磅信号！今天午后，整个A股市场突然大反攻。那么，此次是否又是“国家队”进场呢？A股重磅信号今天早盘，A股市场走势较为惨淡，上证指数一度杀跌超30点，但午后市场明显回暖。从10月份以来，“国家队”动作频频。10月23日，中央汇金公告称当日买入ETF，并表示将在未来继续增持。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>就在刚才，A股发出重磅信号！</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今天午后，整个A股市场突然大反攻。在这次反攻的背后，有三个非常明显的特征：一是券商股反弹非常强劲，但其他个股并未像往常一样因此杀跌；二是央企科技ETF（560170）今天下午再度发力，且出现明显放量。在此之前，该指数基金曾出现一次明显放量，当日国新控股宣布进场“抄底”。三是北向资金午后突然“转向”，上午曾一度净流出近百亿，午后资金显著回流，全天净卖出32.59亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，此次是否又是“国家队”进场呢？分析人士认为，并不能排除这种可能。从指数基金的表现来看，今天出现明显放量的也仅仅只有央企科技ETF，而国新控股此前也声称，会继续进场增持。今天恰逢市场早盘快速走低，午后再现护盘也并非没有可能。值得一提的是，中央经济工作会议召开在即，市场对此亦有期待。</p><p><strong>A股重磅信号</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今天早盘，A股市场走势较为惨淡，上证指数一度杀跌超30点，但午后市场明显回暖。午后，整个市场探底回升，上证指数收涨0.74%，创业板指涨1.25%，万得全A涨0.88%，市场超3900股上涨。文化传媒板块掀涨停潮，券商、半导体午后发力，煤炭、汽车零部件、军工涨幅靠前；食品、白酒、锂矿行业走弱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从结构上看，午后券商股对大盘的支撑力度非常大。</strong>整个券商指数上涨1.62%，多股一度冲击涨停，极大地提振了市场人气。更值得一提的是，以往券商股拉升护盘对应的往往是中小盘个股杀跌，但今天并未因为券商拉升导致个股杀跌，中证1000和中证500今天收盘涨幅都超过1%。这表明，市场午后处于一个强势特征当中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其次，市场有一个非常明显的信号：午后央企科技ETF（560170）放量拉升，截至收盘上涨2.61%，</strong>成交金额放大至5.86亿元，这一数值比12月1日国新控股抄底时还要多近3亿元，放大近1倍。那么，这是否意味着国新控股又在增持呢？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析人士认为，不排除这种可能，中国国新控股有限责任公司12月1日发布公告称，旗下国新投资有限公司当日增持中证国新央企科技类指数基金，并将在未来继续增持。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而且，国新也有这个实力。据天眼查，国新投资有限公司成立于2015年，是中国国新成员，位于北京市，是一家以从事资本市场服务为主的企业。截至2022年底，公司资产总额近8600亿元；2022年净利润近240亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得一提的是，市场可能开始预期中央经济工作会议即将召开，并对此抱有一定的向好预期。今天新华社发文称，是全面贯彻党的二十大精神的开局之年，是三年新冠疫情防控转段后经济恢复发展的一年。</p><p><strong>市场是否企稳？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从10月份以来，“国家队”动作频频。10月11日，中央汇金时隔8年再次出手，对中国银行、农业银行、工商银行、建设银行合计增持超4.76亿元，并表示拟在未来6个月内以自身名义继续在二级市场增持国有四大行股份。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">10月23日，中央汇金公告称当日买入ETF，并表示将在未来继续增持。据Wind数据，10月23日，170只指数基金或增强指数基金份额增加，以10月23日基金单位净值以及份额变动测算，170只ETF规模单日增加93.42亿元，其中13只规模增长超过1亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，市场是否企稳？从量能来看，上周五在指数调整的背景之下，A股整体成交达9700亿元以上，今天的成交金额出现了一定的萎缩，此外12月11日，Wind数据显示，北向资金午后显著回流，全天净卖出32.59亿元，值得注意的是，此前曾一度净流出近百亿。因此，从量能上看，还需要进一步确认企稳信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中金公司发布研究报告称，上周市场延续回调，传媒计算机强势，价值风格的收益强于成长风格，基差全体下沉。综合宏观环境变化、指数走势结构、成交分布情况、技术指标表现等，该机构认为A股当前在估值、情绪、资金等方面均处于偏低状态，底部支撑较强，年底前仍有上涨机会，但或出现的上涨也将更多表现为震荡形式，风格方面建议关注小盘成长风格。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">东方证券认为，尽管从10月底以来，人民币汇率出现了明显反弹，但股市却表现疲弱，这与去年10月底至今年1月中旬期间的股市、汇市的联袂上涨显著不同。原因在于：本轮人民币汇率的升值主要是偏弱的美国经济数据和偏鸽的美联储驱动美债利率下行所导致的，叠加央行对汇率的主动的政策引导。而国内基本面依然比较疲弱，经济内生动能没有明显改善，表现在人民币十年期国债收益率在此期间依然是一个偏弱震荡格局，长端利率的疲软隐含了对经济基本面的偏弱预期，而股市则主要是对这种偏悲观预期的定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而在上一轮人民币汇率升值期间（去年10月底至今年1月中旬），中美利差的收敛既有海外流动性改善的原因，也有国内基本面改善的乐观预期所导致，而后者可能主要是由防疫政策出现重大调整所驱动。换言之，在上一轮人民币汇率升值期间，中美利差收敛是美债收益率的下行和人民币债券收益率的上行所形成的“双向奔赴”的结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在本轮汇率升值期间，北向资金的表现为净流出，累计净流出115亿元，与此形成鲜明对照的是，在上一轮汇率升值期间，北向资金大幅流入，累计净流入1500亿元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一方面国内经济内生动能依然不强、市场预期依然偏弱，宽货币难以向宽信用传导；另一方面美联储当前主要目标依然是控制通胀，这意味着需要把利率维持在限制性水平上，十年期美债收益率短期内很难有趋势性下跌。综合以上两方面的因素，中美利差的进一步收敛很难一蹴而就，我们认为本轮人民币的升值大概率不会如上一轮人民币升值那样流畅，在明年一季度之前很难触及上一轮升值的高点6.70元/美元，但同时7.30元/美元水平也大概率是一个历史低点，当前的7.15元/美元（12月5日）可能就是一个中性水平，短期内上下空间均有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于股市，当前估值已处于历史低位，可能已经定价很多风险因素，进一步下行的空间有限，而要形成趋势性上涨，仍需等待基本面、资金等因素的支持验证。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n刚刚，A股重磅信号！\"牛市旗手\"大反攻，外资突然转向，\"国家队\"再度进场？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-12-11 15:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>就在刚才，A股发出重磅信号！</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今天午后，整个A股市场突然大反攻。在这次反攻的背后，有三个非常明显的特征：一是券商股反弹非常强劲，但其他个股并未像往常一样因此杀跌；二是央企科技ETF（560170）今天下午再度发力，且出现明显放量。在此之前，该指数基金曾出现一次明显放量，当日国新控股宣布进场“抄底”。三是北向资金午后突然“转向”，上午曾一度净流出近百亿，午后资金显著回流，全天净卖出32.59亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，此次是否又是“国家队”进场呢？分析人士认为，并不能排除这种可能。从指数基金的表现来看，今天出现明显放量的也仅仅只有央企科技ETF，而国新控股此前也声称，会继续进场增持。今天恰逢市场早盘快速走低，午后再现护盘也并非没有可能。值得一提的是，中央经济工作会议召开在即，市场对此亦有期待。</p><p><strong>A股重磅信号</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今天早盘，A股市场走势较为惨淡，上证指数一度杀跌超30点，但午后市场明显回暖。午后，整个市场探底回升，上证指数收涨0.74%，创业板指涨1.25%，万得全A涨0.88%，市场超3900股上涨。文化传媒板块掀涨停潮，券商、半导体午后发力，煤炭、汽车零部件、军工涨幅靠前；食品、白酒、锂矿行业走弱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从结构上看，午后券商股对大盘的支撑力度非常大。</strong>整个券商指数上涨1.62%，多股一度冲击涨停，极大地提振了市场人气。更值得一提的是，以往券商股拉升护盘对应的往往是中小盘个股杀跌，但今天并未因为券商拉升导致个股杀跌，中证1000和中证500今天收盘涨幅都超过1%。这表明，市场午后处于一个强势特征当中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其次，市场有一个非常明显的信号：午后央企科技ETF（560170）放量拉升，截至收盘上涨2.61%，</strong>成交金额放大至5.86亿元，这一数值比12月1日国新控股抄底时还要多近3亿元，放大近1倍。那么，这是否意味着国新控股又在增持呢？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析人士认为，不排除这种可能，中国国新控股有限责任公司12月1日发布公告称，旗下国新投资有限公司当日增持中证国新央企科技类指数基金，并将在未来继续增持。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而且，国新也有这个实力。据天眼查，国新投资有限公司成立于2015年，是中国国新成员，位于北京市，是一家以从事资本市场服务为主的企业。截至2022年底，公司资产总额近8600亿元；2022年净利润近240亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得一提的是，市场可能开始预期中央经济工作会议即将召开，并对此抱有一定的向好预期。今天新华社发文称，是全面贯彻党的二十大精神的开局之年，是三年新冠疫情防控转段后经济恢复发展的一年。</p><p><strong>市场是否企稳？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从10月份以来，“国家队”动作频频。10月11日，中央汇金时隔8年再次出手，对中国银行、农业银行、工商银行、建设银行合计增持超4.76亿元，并表示拟在未来6个月内以自身名义继续在二级市场增持国有四大行股份。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">10月23日，中央汇金公告称当日买入ETF，并表示将在未来继续增持。据Wind数据，10月23日，170只指数基金或增强指数基金份额增加，以10月23日基金单位净值以及份额变动测算，170只ETF规模单日增加93.42亿元，其中13只规模增长超过1亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，市场是否企稳？从量能来看，上周五在指数调整的背景之下，A股整体成交达9700亿元以上，今天的成交金额出现了一定的萎缩，此外12月11日，Wind数据显示，北向资金午后显著回流，全天净卖出32.59亿元，值得注意的是，此前曾一度净流出近百亿。因此，从量能上看，还需要进一步确认企稳信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中金公司发布研究报告称，上周市场延续回调，传媒计算机强势，价值风格的收益强于成长风格，基差全体下沉。综合宏观环境变化、指数走势结构、成交分布情况、技术指标表现等，该机构认为A股当前在估值、情绪、资金等方面均处于偏低状态，底部支撑较强，年底前仍有上涨机会，但或出现的上涨也将更多表现为震荡形式，风格方面建议关注小盘成长风格。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">东方证券认为，尽管从10月底以来，人民币汇率出现了明显反弹，但股市却表现疲弱，这与去年10月底至今年1月中旬期间的股市、汇市的联袂上涨显著不同。原因在于：本轮人民币汇率的升值主要是偏弱的美国经济数据和偏鸽的美联储驱动美债利率下行所导致的，叠加央行对汇率的主动的政策引导。而国内基本面依然比较疲弱，经济内生动能没有明显改善，表现在人民币十年期国债收益率在此期间依然是一个偏弱震荡格局，长端利率的疲软隐含了对经济基本面的偏弱预期，而股市则主要是对这种偏悲观预期的定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而在上一轮人民币汇率升值期间（去年10月底至今年1月中旬），中美利差的收敛既有海外流动性改善的原因，也有国内基本面改善的乐观预期所导致，而后者可能主要是由防疫政策出现重大调整所驱动。换言之，在上一轮人民币汇率升值期间，中美利差收敛是美债收益率的下行和人民币债券收益率的上行所形成的“双向奔赴”的结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在本轮汇率升值期间，北向资金的表现为净流出，累计净流出115亿元，与此形成鲜明对照的是，在上一轮汇率升值期间，北向资金大幅流入，累计净流入1500亿元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一方面国内经济内生动能依然不强、市场预期依然偏弱，宽货币难以向宽信用传导；另一方面美联储当前主要目标依然是控制通胀，这意味着需要把利率维持在限制性水平上，十年期美债收益率短期内很难有趋势性下跌。综合以上两方面的因素，中美利差的进一步收敛很难一蹴而就，我们认为本轮人民币的升值大概率不会如上一轮人民币升值那样流畅，在明年一季度之前很难触及上一轮升值的高点6.70元/美元，但同时7.30元/美元水平也大概率是一个历史低点，当前的7.15元/美元（12月5日）可能就是一个中性水平，短期内上下空间均有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于股市，当前估值已处于历史低位，可能已经定价很多风险因素，进一步下行的空间有限，而要形成趋势性上涨，仍需等待基本面、资金等因素的支持验证。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b959f111f3c525ebfbd498e10502a4f8","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181367357","content_text":"就在刚才，A股发出重磅信号！今天午后，整个A股市场突然大反攻。在这次反攻的背后，有三个非常明显的特征：一是券商股反弹非常强劲，但其他个股并未像往常一样因此杀跌；二是央企科技ETF（560170）今天下午再度发力，且出现明显放量。在此之前，该指数基金曾出现一次明显放量，当日国新控股宣布进场“抄底”。三是北向资金午后突然“转向”，上午曾一度净流出近百亿，午后资金显著回流，全天净卖出32.59亿元。那么，此次是否又是“国家队”进场呢？分析人士认为，并不能排除这种可能。从指数基金的表现来看，今天出现明显放量的也仅仅只有央企科技ETF，而国新控股此前也声称，会继续进场增持。今天恰逢市场早盘快速走低，午后再现护盘也并非没有可能。值得一提的是，中央经济工作会议召开在即，市场对此亦有期待。A股重磅信号今天早盘，A股市场走势较为惨淡，上证指数一度杀跌超30点，但午后市场明显回暖。午后，整个市场探底回升，上证指数收涨0.74%，创业板指涨1.25%，万得全A涨0.88%，市场超3900股上涨。文化传媒板块掀涨停潮，券商、半导体午后发力，煤炭、汽车零部件、军工涨幅靠前；食品、白酒、锂矿行业走弱。从结构上看，午后券商股对大盘的支撑力度非常大。整个券商指数上涨1.62%，多股一度冲击涨停，极大地提振了市场人气。更值得一提的是，以往券商股拉升护盘对应的往往是中小盘个股杀跌，但今天并未因为券商拉升导致个股杀跌，中证1000和中证500今天收盘涨幅都超过1%。这表明，市场午后处于一个强势特征当中。其次，市场有一个非常明显的信号：午后央企科技ETF（560170）放量拉升，截至收盘上涨2.61%，成交金额放大至5.86亿元，这一数值比12月1日国新控股抄底时还要多近3亿元，放大近1倍。那么，这是否意味着国新控股又在增持呢？分析人士认为，不排除这种可能，中国国新控股有限责任公司12月1日发布公告称，旗下国新投资有限公司当日增持中证国新央企科技类指数基金，并将在未来继续增持。而且，国新也有这个实力。据天眼查，国新投资有限公司成立于2015年，是中国国新成员，位于北京市，是一家以从事资本市场服务为主的企业。截至2022年底，公司资产总额近8600亿元；2022年净利润近240亿元。值得一提的是，市场可能开始预期中央经济工作会议即将召开，并对此抱有一定的向好预期。今天新华社发文称，是全面贯彻党的二十大精神的开局之年，是三年新冠疫情防控转段后经济恢复发展的一年。市场是否企稳？从10月份以来，“国家队”动作频频。10月11日，中央汇金时隔8年再次出手，对中国银行、农业银行、工商银行、建设银行合计增持超4.76亿元，并表示拟在未来6个月内以自身名义继续在二级市场增持国有四大行股份。10月23日，中央汇金公告称当日买入ETF，并表示将在未来继续增持。据Wind数据，10月23日，170只指数基金或增强指数基金份额增加，以10月23日基金单位净值以及份额变动测算，170只ETF规模单日增加93.42亿元，其中13只规模增长超过1亿元。那么，市场是否企稳？从量能来看，上周五在指数调整的背景之下，A股整体成交达9700亿元以上，今天的成交金额出现了一定的萎缩，此外12月11日，Wind数据显示，北向资金午后显著回流，全天净卖出32.59亿元，值得注意的是，此前曾一度净流出近百亿。因此，从量能上看，还需要进一步确认企稳信号。中金公司发布研究报告称，上周市场延续回调，传媒计算机强势，价值风格的收益强于成长风格，基差全体下沉。综合宏观环境变化、指数走势结构、成交分布情况、技术指标表现等，该机构认为A股当前在估值、情绪、资金等方面均处于偏低状态，底部支撑较强，年底前仍有上涨机会，但或出现的上涨也将更多表现为震荡形式，风格方面建议关注小盘成长风格。东方证券认为，尽管从10月底以来，人民币汇率出现了明显反弹，但股市却表现疲弱，这与去年10月底至今年1月中旬期间的股市、汇市的联袂上涨显著不同。原因在于：本轮人民币汇率的升值主要是偏弱的美国经济数据和偏鸽的美联储驱动美债利率下行所导致的，叠加央行对汇率的主动的政策引导。而国内基本面依然比较疲弱，经济内生动能没有明显改善，表现在人民币十年期国债收益率在此期间依然是一个偏弱震荡格局，长端利率的疲软隐含了对经济基本面的偏弱预期，而股市则主要是对这种偏悲观预期的定价。而在上一轮人民币汇率升值期间（去年10月底至今年1月中旬），中美利差的收敛既有海外流动性改善的原因，也有国内基本面改善的乐观预期所导致，而后者可能主要是由防疫政策出现重大调整所驱动。换言之，在上一轮人民币汇率升值期间，中美利差收敛是美债收益率的下行和人民币债券收益率的上行所形成的“双向奔赴”的结果。在本轮汇率升值期间，北向资金的表现为净流出，累计净流出115亿元，与此形成鲜明对照的是，在上一轮汇率升值期间，北向资金大幅流入，累计净流入1500亿元。一方面国内经济内生动能依然不强、市场预期依然偏弱，宽货币难以向宽信用传导；另一方面美联储当前主要目标依然是控制通胀，这意味着需要把利率维持在限制性水平上，十年期美债收益率短期内很难有趋势性下跌。综合以上两方面的因素，中美利差的进一步收敛很难一蹴而就，我们认为本轮人民币的升值大概率不会如上一轮人民币升值那样流畅，在明年一季度之前很难触及上一轮升值的高点6.70元/美元，但同时7.30元/美元水平也大概率是一个历史低点，当前的7.15元/美元（12月5日）可能就是一个中性水平，短期内上下空间均有限。对于股市，当前估值已处于历史低位，可能已经定价很多风险因素，进一步下行的空间有限，而要形成趋势性上涨，仍需等待基本面、资金等因素的支持验证。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":627130451,"gmtCreate":1678099069174,"gmtModify":1678099070669,"author":{"id":"3570894101421757","authorId":"3570894101421757","name":"追风的咕咕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425722afb00b393a2a2d67736e2b9606","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好文","listText":"好文","text":"好文","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627130451","repostId":"2317873150","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2317873150","pubTimestamp":1678006926,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2317873150?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-05 17:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储会加息50个基点吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317873150","media":"格隆汇","summary":"今年美联储既要抗通胀、又要稳增长、还要防风险，这种“既要、又要、还要”下，美联储货币政策空间将缩窄，政策犯错的风险则会越来越高。","content":"<html><body><p>过去一个月美国经济数据普遍好于预期，10年期美债利率一度冲破4%，引发市场对美联储加息前景的讨论。一个焦点问题是，<strong>美联储是否会在3月议息会议上再次加息50个基点？</strong>我们认为这取决于两方面，一是美联储应不应该加50个基点，二是能不能再加50个基点？</p><p>自去年6月以来，美联储就已下定决心抗通胀，为了尽快遏制通胀，果断采取大幅度加息的策略，2022年6-11月期间连续四次加息75个基点，货币紧缩速度为1980年以来最快。在8月的Jackson Hole会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔甚至暗示不惜以经济衰退为代价来换取抗通胀的胜利[1]，其他官员也表示<strong>货币政策的新规则将是完全依据数据行事（data dependent）</strong>，如果通胀数据比预期更强，持续时间更久，他们将支持继续加息，直至通胀能够回到2%的长期目标[2]。</p><p>美联储的努力取得了初步成效，去年四季度，美国通胀在能源价格大幅下跌的帮助下显著回落，通胀预期明显下降。作为回应，美联储不仅将加息步幅从50个基点放缓至25个基点，还开始考虑结束加息的时间和条件。但今年1月，随着能源价格企稳回升，强劲的劳动力市场支撑工资与服务价格，CPI通胀放缓的速度减慢，美联储青睐的PCE通胀更是较上月反弹，3个月年化核心PCE通胀从去年12月的3.6%上升至1月的4.7%。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/95f1d-61ae1b04-cca6-4e0f-b5ed-e3401a74ed2d.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1fd96-5fb047cf-f86a-40b7-a994-39ee870f6b6d.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/62cd3-d3434035-4853-4c33-9431-8f77b5fd1554.png\"/></p><p><strong>如果美联储言出必行，坚持依数据行事，那么加息50个基点并非不可能。</strong>历史表明，美联储遏制通胀的成功秘诀在于控制通胀预期，后者要求美联储建立并维持良好的信誉度（credibility），如果此前因为通胀回落而下调加息步伐，那么现在通胀回升，货币政策也应该做出相应调整，否则将不利于维护信誉。</p><p>诚然，从现在到3月22日的议息会议还有三周时间，在这期间还会公布2月非农和CPI通胀数据——分别是3月10日公布的非农和3月14日公布的CPI——美联储可以结合这两组数据再进行决策。但我们认为，从风险管理角度看，此时美联储不应过早排除加息50个基点的选项，反而应该给市场传递“一切皆有可能”的信号，以免再次陷入去年6月议息会议前的被动局面（注：彼时由于通胀数据超预期，美联储临时将加息幅度从此前沟通的50个基点提高至75个基点）。</p><p><strong>第二个问题，美联储能不能再加息50个基点？</strong>我们在报告《如果美联储提高通胀目标》中指出，与去年单纯遏制通胀不同，<strong>今年美联储既要抗通胀、又要稳增长、还要防风险，</strong>这种“既要、又要、还要”下，美联储货币政策空间将缩窄，政策犯错的风险则会越来越高。</p><p><span>一个担忧是再加50个基点是否会导致货币紧缩“做过头”？</span>随着利率走高，美国经济增长动能逐步减弱，但近期数据显示，美国劳动力市场仍然强劲，居民消费支出和服务业复苏仍有韧性。尽管我们认为就业是滞后指标，随着居民超额储蓄持续消耗，银行借贷标准收紧，消费增长动能也将逐步减弱，但不可否认经济数据确实好于预期，能够为美联储提供继续加息的理由。从这个角度看，<strong>对于短期经济增长的担忧或不会对加息50个基点形成约束。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1c202-b2610c49-b5b6-4301-aa50-d94af49e8e5b.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/63cba-91963925-94f1-40c9-ac6a-97747c7bb2ef.png\"/></p><p><span>另一个担忧是大幅加息是否会引发金融风险？</span>过去一年，联邦基金利率上限从0.25%大幅上升至4.5%，且大概率会进一步上升。欧央行以及其他主要央行过去一年也大幅加息，全球融资成本“水涨船高”，形成紧缩效应“共振”。随着加息进入“深水区”，全球金融不稳定风险上升，去年四季度发生的一系列事件，如英国养老金、瑞信风波、加密货币事件等，在一定程度上都与利率快速抬升带来的外溢效应有关。</p><p>最近，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>集团价值5.31亿欧元的商业地产抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS）被传出发生违约，这批证券是以2018年收购的芬兰企业SpondaOy拥有的一系列写字楼和商店为担保的[3]。疫情后居家办公令商业地产承压，随着利率越来越高，老牌地产私募公司也会面临违约风险。此外，美国政府“债务上限”问题悬而未决，在高利率、高通胀环境下也可能成为风险点。从这个角度看，<strong>对于金融风险的忧虑会让美联储更加小心谨慎。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/fb60d-765d2f85-2168-4658-8cd2-507295992d62.png\"/></p><p>综上，我们认为不能排除美联储3月加息50个基点的可能，截至3月4日，CME联邦基金期货利率市场对于3月加息50个基点的定价为28%。不过，与去年相比，我们认为美联储持续大幅加息的概率或较低，因为经济放缓和债务风险将对货币紧缩的幅度形成约束。往前看，如果美联储难以在通胀、增长和债务这三大目标之间平衡，最终的结果可能是提高通胀容忍度，甚至不排除提高通胀目标，默许通胀在相当一段时间内高于2%。<strong>由此将带来通胀（预期）与利率中枢抬升，低通胀、低利率时代一去不返</strong>（请参考《如果美联储提高通胀目标》）。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/e5556-c30e8c73-6770-4621-aede-c7af1c5eb15e.png\"/></p><p>最后，近期公布的2月欧洲主要国家及欧元区整体HICP通胀高于市场预期，市场对于欧央行加息终点的预期抬升。2月欧元区HICP同比小幅回落至8.5%（前值8.6%），核心HICP反弹至5.6%（前值5.3%）；环比来看，HICP与核心HICP转跌为涨，环比增幅达0.8%。从分项来看，能源价格环比下跌（-1.1%），但食品明显上涨（1.6%），核心商品（0.9%）与核心服务（0.9%）涨幅均处于较高水平。分国家来看，欧元区20国2月HICP环比均有所上涨，主要国家如德国、法国、西班牙、荷兰等国HICP同比增速较1月再度反弹。欧洲通胀的粘性，尤其是央行更为关注的核心通胀指标持续发酵，使得市场担忧欧央行会在3月释放更多鹰派信号。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/956ae-677f7fb1-992c-4a3b-b55c-a37fcf1c5d54.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/323af-6da952d1-24cf-49bb-b4ac-2d90a88647c0.png\"/></p><p>本周关注：宏观数据与经济事件</p><p><span><strong>宏观数据：</strong></span>周一公布美国1月工厂订单环比增速，美国2月纽约联储全球供应链压力指数（GSCPI），欧元区1月零售销售环比增速，欧元区3月Sentix投资者信心指数。周二公布美国1月批发销售环比增速。周三公布美国1月贸易帐，美国2月ADP就业人数，欧元区第四季度GDP同比增速终值，欧元区第四季度季调后就业人数环比增速。周四公布美国2月挑战者企业裁员人数，美国至3月4日当周初请失业金人数。周五公布美国2月失业率，美国2月季调后非农就业人口。</p><p><strong><span>经济事件：</span></strong>周二美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院金融委员会发表半年度货币政策证词。周三美联储主席鲍威尔在众议院金融服务委员会发表半年度货币政策证词。周四美联储公布经济状况褐皮书。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/74041-face62a3-a68f-4a09-b744-d95e6e1bfdfc.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/390cd-8b96cffd-69bf-4caf-bc38-8a02adaee22a.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/73f5c-921873c3-6a5c-43df-bebf-77e5e89291a3.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/ba5f7-efaa484a-1d46-452f-9b2f-d1961f5f68a7.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/6e49e-510d8c2e-8990-4d9c-ade4-a34555e98db2.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/28233-9af6d8e5-f48f-4513-9521-41318d7b426a.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/2cd30-2ae7e0a7-ee63-4672-a4f2-347da7395eb4.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1667b-2a0a7e90-da97-4f58-99fe-0d3d279f38ff.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/77e3e-81239970-ed9b-42ff-b2c3-ba6782728431.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/e9e12-442e50e5-79e8-48e9-bbd2-b01110ca6ad2.png\"/></p><p>[1]https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm</p><p>[2]https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/09/feds-waller-sees-significant-rate-hike-this-month-backs-data-dependent-approach.html</p><p>[3]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-02/blackstone-defaults-on-531-million-nordic-property-backed-cmbs</p><p><span>注：本文摘自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>3月5日已经发布的海外宏观周报《美联储会加息50个基点吗？</span><span>》，报告分析师：</span></p><p><span>刘政宁  分析员  SAC 执业证书编号：S0080520080007 </span><span>SFC CE Ref：BRF443</span></p><p><span><span>肖捷文  联系人  SAC 执业证书编号：S0080121070451</span></span></p><p><span>张文朗  分析员  SAC 执业证书编号：S0080520080009 SFC CE Ref：BFE988</span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储会加息50个基点吗？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储会加息50个基点吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-05 17:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/583960><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>过去一个月美国经济数据普遍好于预期，10年期美债利率一度冲破4%，引发市场对美联储加息前景的讨论。一个焦点问题是，美联储是否会在3月议息会议上再次加息50个基点？我们认为这取决于两方面，一是美联储应不应该加50个基点，二是能不能再加50个基点？自去年6月以来，美联储就已下定决心抗通胀，为了尽快遏制通胀，果断采取大幅度加息的策略，2022年6-11月期间连续四次加息75个基点，货币紧缩速度为1980...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/583960\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/f5cf8-c1c970fa-0833-4eac-86b3-14fddaeab3e7.jpg","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/583960","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2317873150","content_text":"过去一个月美国经济数据普遍好于预期，10年期美债利率一度冲破4%，引发市场对美联储加息前景的讨论。一个焦点问题是，美联储是否会在3月议息会议上再次加息50个基点？我们认为这取决于两方面，一是美联储应不应该加50个基点，二是能不能再加50个基点？自去年6月以来，美联储就已下定决心抗通胀，为了尽快遏制通胀，果断采取大幅度加息的策略，2022年6-11月期间连续四次加息75个基点，货币紧缩速度为1980年以来最快。在8月的Jackson Hole会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔甚至暗示不惜以经济衰退为代价来换取抗通胀的胜利[1]，其他官员也表示货币政策的新规则将是完全依据数据行事（data dependent），如果通胀数据比预期更强，持续时间更久，他们将支持继续加息，直至通胀能够回到2%的长期目标[2]。美联储的努力取得了初步成效，去年四季度，美国通胀在能源价格大幅下跌的帮助下显著回落，通胀预期明显下降。作为回应，美联储不仅将加息步幅从50个基点放缓至25个基点，还开始考虑结束加息的时间和条件。但今年1月，随着能源价格企稳回升，强劲的劳动力市场支撑工资与服务价格，CPI通胀放缓的速度减慢，美联储青睐的PCE通胀更是较上月反弹，3个月年化核心PCE通胀从去年12月的3.6%上升至1月的4.7%。如果美联储言出必行，坚持依数据行事，那么加息50个基点并非不可能。历史表明，美联储遏制通胀的成功秘诀在于控制通胀预期，后者要求美联储建立并维持良好的信誉度（credibility），如果此前因为通胀回落而下调加息步伐，那么现在通胀回升，货币政策也应该做出相应调整，否则将不利于维护信誉。诚然，从现在到3月22日的议息会议还有三周时间，在这期间还会公布2月非农和CPI通胀数据——分别是3月10日公布的非农和3月14日公布的CPI——美联储可以结合这两组数据再进行决策。但我们认为，从风险管理角度看，此时美联储不应过早排除加息50个基点的选项，反而应该给市场传递“一切皆有可能”的信号，以免再次陷入去年6月议息会议前的被动局面（注：彼时由于通胀数据超预期，美联储临时将加息幅度从此前沟通的50个基点提高至75个基点）。第二个问题，美联储能不能再加息50个基点？我们在报告《如果美联储提高通胀目标》中指出，与去年单纯遏制通胀不同，今年美联储既要抗通胀、又要稳增长、还要防风险，这种“既要、又要、还要”下，美联储货币政策空间将缩窄，政策犯错的风险则会越来越高。一个担忧是再加50个基点是否会导致货币紧缩“做过头”？随着利率走高，美国经济增长动能逐步减弱，但近期数据显示，美国劳动力市场仍然强劲，居民消费支出和服务业复苏仍有韧性。尽管我们认为就业是滞后指标，随着居民超额储蓄持续消耗，银行借贷标准收紧，消费增长动能也将逐步减弱，但不可否认经济数据确实好于预期，能够为美联储提供继续加息的理由。从这个角度看，对于短期经济增长的担忧或不会对加息50个基点形成约束。另一个担忧是大幅加息是否会引发金融风险？过去一年，联邦基金利率上限从0.25%大幅上升至4.5%，且大概率会进一步上升。欧央行以及其他主要央行过去一年也大幅加息，全球融资成本“水涨船高”，形成紧缩效应“共振”。随着加息进入“深水区”，全球金融不稳定风险上升，去年四季度发生的一系列事件，如英国养老金、瑞信风波、加密货币事件等，在一定程度上都与利率快速抬升带来的外溢效应有关。最近，黑石集团价值5.31亿欧元的商业地产抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS）被传出发生违约，这批证券是以2018年收购的芬兰企业SpondaOy拥有的一系列写字楼和商店为担保的[3]。疫情后居家办公令商业地产承压，随着利率越来越高，老牌地产私募公司也会面临违约风险。此外，美国政府“债务上限”问题悬而未决，在高利率、高通胀环境下也可能成为风险点。从这个角度看，对于金融风险的忧虑会让美联储更加小心谨慎。综上，我们认为不能排除美联储3月加息50个基点的可能，截至3月4日，CME联邦基金期货利率市场对于3月加息50个基点的定价为28%。不过，与去年相比，我们认为美联储持续大幅加息的概率或较低，因为经济放缓和债务风险将对货币紧缩的幅度形成约束。往前看，如果美联储难以在通胀、增长和债务这三大目标之间平衡，最终的结果可能是提高通胀容忍度，甚至不排除提高通胀目标，默许通胀在相当一段时间内高于2%。由此将带来通胀（预期）与利率中枢抬升，低通胀、低利率时代一去不返（请参考《如果美联储提高通胀目标》）。最后，近期公布的2月欧洲主要国家及欧元区整体HICP通胀高于市场预期，市场对于欧央行加息终点的预期抬升。2月欧元区HICP同比小幅回落至8.5%（前值8.6%），核心HICP反弹至5.6%（前值5.3%）；环比来看，HICP与核心HICP转跌为涨，环比增幅达0.8%。从分项来看，能源价格环比下跌（-1.1%），但食品明显上涨（1.6%），核心商品（0.9%）与核心服务（0.9%）涨幅均处于较高水平。分国家来看，欧元区20国2月HICP环比均有所上涨，主要国家如德国、法国、西班牙、荷兰等国HICP同比增速较1月再度反弹。欧洲通胀的粘性，尤其是央行更为关注的核心通胀指标持续发酵，使得市场担忧欧央行会在3月释放更多鹰派信号。本周关注：宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据：周一公布美国1月工厂订单环比增速，美国2月纽约联储全球供应链压力指数（GSCPI），欧元区1月零售销售环比增速，欧元区3月Sentix投资者信心指数。周二公布美国1月批发销售环比增速。周三公布美国1月贸易帐，美国2月ADP就业人数，欧元区第四季度GDP同比增速终值，欧元区第四季度季调后就业人数环比增速。周四公布美国2月挑战者企业裁员人数，美国至3月4日当周初请失业金人数。周五公布美国2月失业率，美国2月季调后非农就业人口。经济事件：周二美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院金融委员会发表半年度货币政策证词。周三美联储主席鲍威尔在众议院金融服务委员会发表半年度货币政策证词。周四美联储公布经济状况褐皮书。[1]https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm[2]https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/09/feds-waller-sees-significant-rate-hike-this-month-backs-data-dependent-approach.html[3]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-02/blackstone-defaults-on-531-million-nordic-property-backed-cmbs注：本文摘自中金公司3月5日已经发布的海外宏观周报《美联储会加息50个基点吗？》，报告分析师：刘政宁  分析员  SAC 执业证书编号：S0080520080007 SFC CE Ref：BRF443肖捷文  联系人  SAC 执业证书编号：S0080121070451张文朗  分析员  SAC 执业证书编号：S0080520080009 SFC CE Ref：BFE988","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624406112,"gmtCreate":1677603938236,"gmtModify":1677603941134,"author":{"id":"3570894101421757","authorId":"3570894101421757","name":"追风的咕咕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425722afb00b393a2a2d67736e2b9606","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"他就差把所有的都写上了 也就这几个 你问三个就行了[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"他就差把所有的都写上了 也就这几个 你问三个就行了[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"他就差把所有的都写上了 也就这几个 你问三个就行了[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624406112","repostId":"2314924625","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2314924625","pubTimestamp":1677598182,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2314924625?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-28 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"I Asked ChatGPT for 10 EV Stocks to Buy. Here’s What It Recommended","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2314924625","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"ChatGPT provided a basic rundown of electric vehicle (EV) stocks to buy.It selected some of the indu","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>ChatGPT provided a basic rundown of electric vehicle (EV) stocks to buy.</li><li>It selected some of the industry’s most well-known names, including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>.</li><li>However, the chatbot did not provide any advanced insights into the sector.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03fd8b712c6c9c56503263886bfa1177\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: shutterstock.com/Nixx Photography</p><p>Nearly three months after the launch of <b>OpenAI’s</b> ChatGPT, investors remain hyper-focused on artificial intelligence (<b>AI</b>). There’s plenty of reason to be. Major companies are working around the clock to perfect their own versions of the chatbot. Some are redoubling their own research and development initiatives, while others, such as Amazon, are rushing to acquire prominent AI startups.</p><p>And while this new market frenzy has created a new class of winners among AI stocks, it has also led to questions about the type of financial advice ChatGPT can provide. <i>NerdWallet</i> reports that AI technology is not ready to replace financial advisors. But to take this further, <i>InvestorPlace</i> decided to ask the chatbot for its recommendations for the best EV stocks to buy.</p><p>This isn’t the first time that we’ve tested the power of ChatGPT in financial matters. <i>InvestorPlace</i> Financial News Writer Brenden Rearick has successfully asked the chatbot for its recommendations for a list of cryptos to buy. While he later asked it for a list of cryptos to sell, he concluded that the program is still lacking, as it referenced crypto projects that are long dead.</p><p>And while Markets Analyst Thomas Yeung has successfully managed to “trick” the bot into picking a more general list of stocks to buy, I wanted to see how it would respond to commands regarding a more specific industry. Given its high investor interest, the EV sector made sense. But it is important to note that the chatbot’s data is limited and often not up to date past 2021.</p><h2>The Best EV Stocks to Buy, According to ChatGPT</h2><p>I decided to keep my commands very general at first, posing the following question: What are the top 10 best EV stocks to buy? ChatGPT began with its classic disclaimer:</p><blockquote>“As an AI language model, I do not provide financial or investment advice. However, I can give you some information on electric vehicle (EV) stocks that you may find helpful.”</blockquote><p>From there, the bot declined to rank 10 EV stocks. However, it did provide a list of companies it claims have been making headlines recently:</p><ol><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a></li><li>$Nio (NYSE:NIO)$</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a></li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a></li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a></li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAGY\">Volkswagen</a></li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD Company</a></li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">Xpeng</a></li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSR\">Fisker</a></li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid</a></li></ol><p>These names all make sense. Tesla is the leader of the EV sector, and the other companies consistently receive media coverage. All have given investors reason to be watching them, as ChatGPT claims.</p><p>When asked to provide further context on why it selected these 10 as the top EV stocks to buy, the bot cited Tesla’s head start in the EV race, Nio’s “innovative designs and strong growth potential,” and BYD’s dynamic reach across the industry. It also highlighted Xpeng’s plans for expansion and its investments in autonomous vehicles. Regarding Lucid, it cited the company’s backing from Saudi Arabia, as well as its plans to expand further in the U.S.</p><p>The points made by ChatGPT are generally well-taken. However, the bot doesn’t account for some key things. While it notes that BYD has partnered with several prominent automakers, it doesn’t mention its recent deal with tech innovator Nvidia, which is especially relevant amid the current AI boom.</p><p>ChatGPT also doesn’t mention Nio’s G9, an electric SUV that experts have hailed as a likely sales-driving catalyst. And it only names automakers, neglecting to mention companies that power the EV sector, such as infrastructure leader ChargePoint, which Fisker recently partnered with. CHPT certainly has the growth prospects to put on any list of the best EV stocks to buy.</p><h2>Using Everyman DAN</h2><p>However, different prompts yielded slightly different results. Following Yeung’s example, I decided to create an “’Everyman DAN’ (as one of our editors has termed it), a simple stock picker attempting to please his demanding boss.” These are the five stocks ChatGPT suggested the fictitious high-growth investor James bring back to his boss:</p><ol><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a></li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a></li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a></li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">Plug Power</a></li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRIV\">Global X Autonomous And Electric Vehicles ETF</a></li></ol><p>Again, we see that ChatGPT is quick to name Tesla, Nio and General Motors as top EV stocks to buy. But it demonstrates discernment in identifying Plug Power, a clean energy innovator that doesn’t operate exclusively within the EV sector. As it notes:</p><blockquote>“James saw potential for hydrogen fuel cell technology to become a major player in the electric vehicle market, and he believed that Plug Power was well positioned to benefit from this trend.”</blockquote><p>On top of that, the DRIV ETF is a good pick for a list of EV stocks to buy, as it offers investors exposure to the sector without the risk that comes with betting on specific stocks. The most logical conclusion is that the prompts used to extract information from ChatGPT made a noticeable difference.</p><p>ChatGPT states that its criteria for selecting stocks centers around company fundamentals, market potential, competitive landscape, innovation, leadership and valuation. These are the standard metrics that most investors use for assessing potential stock picks. Overall, it seems ChatGPT is capable of picking the EV stocks most likely to turn up during an internet search. What it hasn’t done is demonstrated an ability to dig deeper into the sector and find the best EV stocks to buy that may still be undervalued.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>I Asked ChatGPT for 10 EV Stocks to Buy. Here’s What It Recommended</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nI Asked ChatGPT for 10 EV Stocks to Buy. Here’s What It Recommended\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-28 23:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/02/i-asked-chatgpt-for-10-ev-stocks-to-buy-heres-what-it-recommended/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ChatGPT provided a basic rundown of electric vehicle (EV) stocks to buy.It selected some of the industry’s most well-known names, including Tesla.However, the chatbot did not provide any advanced ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/02/i-asked-chatgpt-for-10-ev-stocks-to-buy-heres-what-it-recommended/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSR":"菲斯克","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0648000940.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4526":"热门中概股","NIO":"蔚来","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0354030511.USD":"ALLSPRING  U.S. LARGE CAP GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1201861165.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity PA SGD","LU2125909593.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4509":"腾讯概念","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU1983260115.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Sustainable Equity A2 SGD-H","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","F":"福特汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4567":"ESG概念","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/02/i-asked-chatgpt-for-10-ev-stocks-to-buy-heres-what-it-recommended/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2314924625","content_text":"ChatGPT provided a basic rundown of electric vehicle (EV) stocks to buy.It selected some of the industry’s most well-known names, including Tesla.However, the chatbot did not provide any advanced insights into the sector.Source: shutterstock.com/Nixx PhotographyNearly three months after the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, investors remain hyper-focused on artificial intelligence (AI). There’s plenty of reason to be. Major companies are working around the clock to perfect their own versions of the chatbot. Some are redoubling their own research and development initiatives, while others, such as Amazon, are rushing to acquire prominent AI startups.And while this new market frenzy has created a new class of winners among AI stocks, it has also led to questions about the type of financial advice ChatGPT can provide. NerdWallet reports that AI technology is not ready to replace financial advisors. But to take this further, InvestorPlace decided to ask the chatbot for its recommendations for the best EV stocks to buy.This isn’t the first time that we’ve tested the power of ChatGPT in financial matters. InvestorPlace Financial News Writer Brenden Rearick has successfully asked the chatbot for its recommendations for a list of cryptos to buy. While he later asked it for a list of cryptos to sell, he concluded that the program is still lacking, as it referenced crypto projects that are long dead.And while Markets Analyst Thomas Yeung has successfully managed to “trick” the bot into picking a more general list of stocks to buy, I wanted to see how it would respond to commands regarding a more specific industry. Given its high investor interest, the EV sector made sense. But it is important to note that the chatbot’s data is limited and often not up to date past 2021.The Best EV Stocks to Buy, According to ChatGPTI decided to keep my commands very general at first, posing the following question: What are the top 10 best EV stocks to buy? ChatGPT began with its classic disclaimer:“As an AI language model, I do not provide financial or investment advice. However, I can give you some information on electric vehicle (EV) stocks that you may find helpful.”From there, the bot declined to rank 10 EV stocks. However, it did provide a list of companies it claims have been making headlines recently:Tesla$Nio (NYSE:NIO)$General MotorsFordLi AutoVolkswagenBYD CompanyXpengFiskerLucidThese names all make sense. Tesla is the leader of the EV sector, and the other companies consistently receive media coverage. All have given investors reason to be watching them, as ChatGPT claims.When asked to provide further context on why it selected these 10 as the top EV stocks to buy, the bot cited Tesla’s head start in the EV race, Nio’s “innovative designs and strong growth potential,” and BYD’s dynamic reach across the industry. It also highlighted Xpeng’s plans for expansion and its investments in autonomous vehicles. Regarding Lucid, it cited the company’s backing from Saudi Arabia, as well as its plans to expand further in the U.S.The points made by ChatGPT are generally well-taken. However, the bot doesn’t account for some key things. While it notes that BYD has partnered with several prominent automakers, it doesn’t mention its recent deal with tech innovator Nvidia, which is especially relevant amid the current AI boom.ChatGPT also doesn’t mention Nio’s G9, an electric SUV that experts have hailed as a likely sales-driving catalyst. And it only names automakers, neglecting to mention companies that power the EV sector, such as infrastructure leader ChargePoint, which Fisker recently partnered with. CHPT certainly has the growth prospects to put on any list of the best EV stocks to buy.Using Everyman DANHowever, different prompts yielded slightly different results. Following Yeung’s example, I decided to create an “’Everyman DAN’ (as one of our editors has termed it), a simple stock picker attempting to please his demanding boss.” These are the five stocks ChatGPT suggested the fictitious high-growth investor James bring back to his boss:TeslaNioGeneral MotorsPlug PowerGlobal X Autonomous And Electric Vehicles ETFAgain, we see that ChatGPT is quick to name Tesla, Nio and General Motors as top EV stocks to buy. But it demonstrates discernment in identifying Plug Power, a clean energy innovator that doesn’t operate exclusively within the EV sector. As it notes:“James saw potential for hydrogen fuel cell technology to become a major player in the electric vehicle market, and he believed that Plug Power was well positioned to benefit from this trend.”On top of that, the DRIV ETF is a good pick for a list of EV stocks to buy, as it offers investors exposure to the sector without the risk that comes with betting on specific stocks. The most logical conclusion is that the prompts used to extract information from ChatGPT made a noticeable difference.ChatGPT states that its criteria for selecting stocks centers around company fundamentals, market potential, competitive landscape, innovation, leadership and valuation. These are the standard metrics that most investors use for assessing potential stock picks. Overall, it seems ChatGPT is capable of picking the EV stocks most likely to turn up during an internet search. What it hasn’t done is demonstrated an ability to dig deeper into the sector and find the best EV stocks to buy that may still be undervalued.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626640735,"gmtCreate":1674138911527,"gmtModify":1674138912686,"author":{"id":"3570894101421757","authorId":"3570894101421757","name":"追风的咕咕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425722afb00b393a2a2d67736e2b9606","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>现在市场是对经济衰退的恐慌大于 加息吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>现在市场是对经济衰退的恐慌大于 加息吗","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 现在市场是对经济衰退的恐慌大于 加息吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626640735","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665359192,"gmtCreate":1666958838216,"gmtModify":1666958839506,"author":{"id":"3570894101421757","authorId":"3570894101421757","name":"追风的咕咕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425722afb00b393a2a2d67736e2b9606","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>不给蛋 ，就捣糖[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>不给蛋 ，就捣糖[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$不给蛋 ，就捣糖[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665359192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":661745455,"gmtCreate":1664270448777,"gmtModify":1664270452209,"author":{"id":"3570894101421757","authorId":"3570894101421757","name":"追风的咕咕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425722afb00b393a2a2d67736e2b9606","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看来机构买了不少put[汗颜]&nbsp;","listText":"看来机构买了不少put[汗颜]&nbsp;","text":"看来机构买了不少put[汗颜]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661745455","repostId":"2270299946","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2270299946","pubTimestamp":1664255280,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2270299946?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-27 13:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"11月继续75基点？华尔街加息预期爆棚","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270299946","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储将“鹰无止境”？","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>加息之后是降息。野村预计，2023年9月开始，美联储将以每次会议25个基点的初始速度降息；到2024年第二季度，降息速度将加快至每次会议50个基点。</b></blockquote><p><b>华尔街加息预期爆棚：瑞银“11月继续75基点”！野村“12月也加75”，峰值加到5.25-5.50%！</b></p><p>华尔街纷纷开始押注，美联储将“鹰无止境”。根据美联储上周发布的经济预测摘要（SEP），大多数FOMC成员认为第四次75个基点的加息是适当的。</p><p>市场紧随其后，继续上调了对联邦基金利率峰值的预测，现在认为利率峰值将在明年4月升至4.80%左右的水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ee131dbe91412912d1a333e9c442ca6\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>华尔街的预测更为“大胆”。在准确预测（与联储官员一致）利率峰值将在明年达到4.6%的水平后，野村甚至继续加码，押注该利率水平将在明年3月升至5.25%-5.50%。</p><p><b>“让子弹再飞一会儿”</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>预计，美联储将在11月的会议上连续第四次加息75个基点，随后在12月加息50个基点。到今年年底，联邦基金利率的目标区间将达到4.25%-4.5%。</p><p>然而，到2023年2月的FOMC会议结束时，<b>瑞银认为政策累积调整的效果将更加明显，届时FOMC将暂停加息并评估已实施的紧缩政策。</b></p><p>随着对加息幅度的上调，FOMC对联邦基金利率峰值的预测上调至4.6%。瑞银认为，<b>该利率此后保持在这一限制性区间，将足以使通胀回到2.0%的目标。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a128429c9b0601505c7b562fe2bdce4\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>瑞银“大幅加息”的预测与鲍威尔收紧政策的强烈意愿一致：他希望设定的利率能够使整个曲线的实际利率都为正，并有更多的证据表明通货胀正在放缓，劳动力市场正在放缓。如市场预期的那样，鲍威尔和FOMC其他成员基本维持了杰克逊霍尔会议上释放的鹰派信号。</p><p>SEP对经济增长的预期大幅下调，失业率预计将在2023年和2024年达到4.4%的峰值，然后在2025年下降到4.3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c9068e45d0fe7208cdbfb59da32ef98\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>但瑞银认为，劳动力市场并不一定会有较大程度的放缓。鉴于劳动力市场缓慢的波动趋势，推动失业率上升并不容易，很可能需要完全减少一定数量工作岗位，才能达到美联储所假设的失业率中值水平。</b></p><p>瑞银表示，进一步收紧政策和硬着陆的一个重要风险是，鲍威尔继续将“职位空缺”作为衡量劳动力市场实力的指标。在金融危机之前，由于劳动力市场即将收缩并步入衰退区间，职位空缺率保持在周期峰值附近或达到周期峰值。<b>作为一个后顾性指标（backward looking indicator，追溯历史数据），过度依赖职位空缺率可能会导致美联储错过劳动力市场变动的重要转折点。</b></p><p>野村的押注“加码”了</p><p>上周，野村在FOMC会议前就预测联邦基金利率峰值将在明年上升至4.6%的水平，与联储官员的利率预期中值一致。</p><p>而在上周五晚上，野村美国经济研究团队甚至将其对美联储利率峰值的<b>预测上调至5.25%-5.50%。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6e85b0eba1ccea0ed81c1576fdc5b9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>他们认为，越来越多的证据表明，短期中性利率在以下情况下已经上升：<b>1）比预期更宽松的金融环境；2）有弹性的劳动力市场；3）仍然居高不下的通胀。这表明名义中性利率可能远高于2%-2.5%：</b></p><blockquote><b>因此，我们将利率峰值预测上调75个基点至5.25%-5.50%，现在预计今年11月和12月加息75个基点，随后在明年2月加息50个基点，3月加息25个基点。</b></blockquote><p>较高的中性利率意味着美联储当前的货币政策立场比野村之前预估的更为宽松，经济衰退推迟到2023年第一季度的风险更大。野村预计，<b>2023年9月开始，美联储将以每次会议25个基点的初始速度降息；到2024年第二季度，降息速度将加快至每次会议50个基点。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d66dffa7ffb5fe3cd97210d2bac273\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>届时通胀反弹的风险降低，2024年底的政策利率将为1.125%，失业率峰值在6%左右。</p><p>野村警告称，美国与世界其他地区的利差在不断扩大，美国实际利率和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>都升至多年来的高点。这种金融条件的收紧，将对风险资产造成严重打击。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>11月继续75基点？华尔街加息预期爆棚</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n11月继续75基点？华尔街加息预期爆棚\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-27 13:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671269><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>加息之后是降息。野村预计，2023年9月开始，美联储将以每次会议25个基点的初始速度降息；到2024年第二季度，降息速度将加快至每次会议50个基点。华尔街加息预期爆棚：瑞银“11月继续75基点”！野村“12月也加75”，峰值加到5.25-5.50%！华尔街纷纷开始押注，美联储将“鹰无止境”。根据美联储上周发布的经济预测摘要（SEP），大多数FOMC成员认为第四次75个基点的加息是适当的。市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671269\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1919503fa977869f2aed6254242da69d","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671269","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270299946","content_text":"加息之后是降息。野村预计，2023年9月开始，美联储将以每次会议25个基点的初始速度降息；到2024年第二季度，降息速度将加快至每次会议50个基点。华尔街加息预期爆棚：瑞银“11月继续75基点”！野村“12月也加75”，峰值加到5.25-5.50%！华尔街纷纷开始押注，美联储将“鹰无止境”。根据美联储上周发布的经济预测摘要（SEP），大多数FOMC成员认为第四次75个基点的加息是适当的。市场紧随其后，继续上调了对联邦基金利率峰值的预测，现在认为利率峰值将在明年4月升至4.80%左右的水平。华尔街的预测更为“大胆”。在准确预测（与联储官员一致）利率峰值将在明年达到4.6%的水平后，野村甚至继续加码，押注该利率水平将在明年3月升至5.25%-5.50%。“让子弹再飞一会儿”瑞银预计，美联储将在11月的会议上连续第四次加息75个基点，随后在12月加息50个基点。到今年年底，联邦基金利率的目标区间将达到4.25%-4.5%。然而，到2023年2月的FOMC会议结束时，瑞银认为政策累积调整的效果将更加明显，届时FOMC将暂停加息并评估已实施的紧缩政策。随着对加息幅度的上调，FOMC对联邦基金利率峰值的预测上调至4.6%。瑞银认为，该利率此后保持在这一限制性区间，将足以使通胀回到2.0%的目标。瑞银“大幅加息”的预测与鲍威尔收紧政策的强烈意愿一致：他希望设定的利率能够使整个曲线的实际利率都为正，并有更多的证据表明通货胀正在放缓，劳动力市场正在放缓。如市场预期的那样，鲍威尔和FOMC其他成员基本维持了杰克逊霍尔会议上释放的鹰派信号。SEP对经济增长的预期大幅下调，失业率预计将在2023年和2024年达到4.4%的峰值，然后在2025年下降到4.3%。但瑞银认为，劳动力市场并不一定会有较大程度的放缓。鉴于劳动力市场缓慢的波动趋势，推动失业率上升并不容易，很可能需要完全减少一定数量工作岗位，才能达到美联储所假设的失业率中值水平。瑞银表示，进一步收紧政策和硬着陆的一个重要风险是，鲍威尔继续将“职位空缺”作为衡量劳动力市场实力的指标。在金融危机之前，由于劳动力市场即将收缩并步入衰退区间，职位空缺率保持在周期峰值附近或达到周期峰值。作为一个后顾性指标（backward looking indicator，追溯历史数据），过度依赖职位空缺率可能会导致美联储错过劳动力市场变动的重要转折点。野村的押注“加码”了上周，野村在FOMC会议前就预测联邦基金利率峰值将在明年上升至4.6%的水平，与联储官员的利率预期中值一致。而在上周五晚上，野村美国经济研究团队甚至将其对美联储利率峰值的预测上调至5.25%-5.50%。他们认为，越来越多的证据表明，短期中性利率在以下情况下已经上升：1）比预期更宽松的金融环境；2）有弹性的劳动力市场；3）仍然居高不下的通胀。这表明名义中性利率可能远高于2%-2.5%：因此，我们将利率峰值预测上调75个基点至5.25%-5.50%，现在预计今年11月和12月加息75个基点，随后在明年2月加息50个基点，3月加息25个基点。较高的中性利率意味着美联储当前的货币政策立场比野村之前预估的更为宽松，经济衰退推迟到2023年第一季度的风险更大。野村预计，2023年9月开始，美联储将以每次会议25个基点的初始速度降息；到2024年第二季度，降息速度将加快至每次会议50个基点。届时通胀反弹的风险降低，2024年底的政策利率将为1.125%，失业率峰值在6%左右。野村警告称，美国与世界其他地区的利差在不断扩大，美国实际利率和美元指数都升至多年来的高点。这种金融条件的收紧，将对风险资产造成严重打击。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":661041536,"gmtCreate":1663598437525,"gmtModify":1663598440808,"author":{"id":"3570894101421757","authorId":"3570894101421757","name":"追风的咕咕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425722afb00b393a2a2d67736e2b9606","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>涨点吧 兄弟 我买的期权[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>涨点吧 兄弟 我买的期权[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$涨点吧 兄弟 我买的期权[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661041536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":663654877,"gmtCreate":1663164860599,"gmtModify":1663164861593,"author":{"id":"3570894101421757","authorId":"3570894101421757","name":"追风的咕咕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425722afb00b393a2a2d67736e2b9606","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加息100基点，可以，但没必要","listText":"加息100基点，可以，但没必要","text":"加息100基点，可以，但没必要","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/663654877","repostId":"2267423552","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":134632580,"gmtCreate":1622220220040,"gmtModify":1622220220040,"author":{"id":"3570894101421757","authorId":"3570894101421757","name":"追风的咕咕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425722afb00b393a2a2d67736e2b9606","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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