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2021-07-26

Great

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2021-08-03

Yes

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2021-06-15

Quad witch! Comment below

Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>

2021-07-25

Yes

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2021-07-28

Yes

Fed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减时间表。</blockquote>

2021-07-15

Cool

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2021-07-08

Cool

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2021-07-18

Nice

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2021-07-12

Ok yes

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2021-07-07

Cool

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21:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减时间表。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102922788","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases\n","content":"<p>Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases</p><p><blockquote>官员们正在寻求就如何以及何时最终减少资产购买达成共识</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b506b5e7aef3659e57731a13007a3078\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"859\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke at a Senate committee hearing earlier this month, has promised ample notice before reducing purchases of securities.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本月早些时候在参议院委员会听证会上发表讲话，承诺在减少证券购买之前会发出充分的通知。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve officials are set to resume deliberations Wednesday about how and when to begin&nbsp;paring their asset purchases&nbsp;amid an economic rebound clouded by supply-chain bottlenecks and rising Covid-19 cases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员将于周三恢复审议，讨论在供应链瓶颈和Covid-19病例增加的情况下，如何以及何时开始削减资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank at the end of last year said it would continue to purchase $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities monthly until officials deemed they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of low unemployment and inflation reaching their 2% goal.</p><p><blockquote>央行去年年底表示，将继续每月购买1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，直到官员们认为他们在实现低失业率和通胀率达到2%的目标方面取得了“实质性的进一步进展”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT. Most of the focus is likely to center on Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what to watch:</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于美国东部时间下午2点发布政策声明。大部分焦点可能集中在下午2:30主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的新闻发布会上。以下是值得关注的内容：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Taper timing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>锥度正时</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials are likely to receive a formal staff briefing around when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them.</p><p><blockquote>官员们可能会收到正式的工作人员简报，内容涉及何时开始削减每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元抵押贷款证券的购买量，以及以多快的速度减少或缩减这些购买量。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed began buying large quantities of the securities in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a near-meltdown in financial markets. With the Fed’s short-term interest rate at zero, the purchases are designed to provide additional stimulus by holding down long-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始大量购买这些证券，当时Covid-19大流行引发了金融市场几近崩溃。由于美联储的短期利率为零，购买旨在通过压低长期利率来提供额外的刺激。</blockquote></p><p> Some officials are concerned&nbsp;that a burst of inflation this year from bottlenecks associated with reopening the economy will prove more durable than previously anticipated. These policy makers are eager to start the taper, in part because they and their colleagues have said they aren’t likely to consider raising interest rates from near zero until they are done tapering the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>一些官员担心，今年因与重新开放经济相关的瓶颈而引发的通胀爆发将比之前预期的更持久。这些政策制定者渴望开始缩减，部分原因是他们和他们的同事表示，在完成缩减资产购买之前，他们不太可能考虑将利率从接近零的水平上调。</blockquote></p><p> Another camp thinks recent&nbsp;price pressures will subside&nbsp;and could leave the Fed in the same position that it faced for much of the past decade, in which global forces kept inflation below 2% even with historically low interest rates. They are worried that accelerating plans to wind down the asset purchases could raise questions among investors about the Fed’s commitment to achieving its economic goals.</p><p><blockquote>另一个阵营认为，最近的价格压力将会消退，并可能使美联储陷入过去十年大部分时间所面临的境地，即即使利率处于历史低位，全球力量仍将通胀率保持在2%以下。他们担心，加速缩减资产购买计划可能会引发投资者对美联储实现经济目标承诺的质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Because Mr. Powell has pledged&nbsp;to provide ample notice&nbsp;to financial markets before the Fed starts tapering&nbsp;to avoid catching investors by surprise, the central bank looks unlikely to start the process now or at its next meeting in September. Mr. Powell’s press conference will be heavily scrutinized for clues on how officials judge recent economic progress. In April, he said the Fed was “a long way from” its tapering goals, and he characterized the economy as “still a ways off” from them in June.</p><p><blockquote>由于鲍威尔承诺在美联储开始缩减规模之前向金融市场发出充分通知，以避免让投资者措手不及，因此美联储现在或在9月份的下一次会议上似乎不太可能启动这一进程。鲍威尔的新闻发布会将受到严格审查，以寻找有关官员如何判断近期经济进展的线索。4月份，他表示美联储距离缩减目标“还有很长的路要走”，6月份他称经济距离目标“还有很长的路要走”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Purchase pace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买节奏</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials also must consider the pace of any reductions. Some officials have discussed concluding the purchases around October 2022 so they could lift rates soon thereafter if the recovery is stronger or inflation is higher than now anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>官员们还必须考虑任何削减的速度。一些官员已经讨论过在2022年10月左右结束购买，以便如果复苏更强劲或通胀高于目前预期，他们可以在此后很快加息。</blockquote></p><p> During a prior asset-purchase program that ended in 2014, the Fed shrank its purchases in modest, equal amounts over the course of 10 months. It then waited another 14 months before raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>在2014年结束的上一次资产购买计划中，美联储在10个月内适度、等量地缩减了购买规模。然后又等了14个月才加息。</blockquote></p><p> Another tactical question centers on whether&nbsp;to reduce the pace of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities equally. Some officials have raised concerns about rising home prices and are pressing to stop purchases of mortgage bonds sooner.</p><p><blockquote>另一个战术问题集中在是否同样降低美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的发行速度。一些官员对房价上涨表示担忧，并敦促尽快停止购买抵押贷款债券。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Powell and other officials have poured cold water on those concerns in recent weeks. They have said mortgage buying, by purchasing longer-dated assets, provides a way to more broadly stimulate the economy and isn’t focused squarely on housing markets.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔和其他官员最近几周对这些担忧泼了冷水。他们表示，通过购买长期资产，抵押贷款购买提供了一种更广泛地刺激经济的方式，并且并不直接关注房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> “If the housing market has you really worried, that’s an argument for just tapering everything sooner and faster,” said William English, a former senior Fed economist who is now a professor at the Yale School of Management.</p><p><blockquote>前美联储高级经济学家、现任耶鲁大学管理学院教授威廉·英格利希(William English)表示：“如果房地产市场真的让你担心，那么这就是越来越快地缩减一切的理由。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀前景</b></blockquote></p><p> For a third straight month in June,inflation ran hotter&nbsp;than many economists had expected. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index increased 5.4% from a year ago, the highest 12-month rate since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>6月份通胀连续第三个月高于许多经济学家的预期。美国劳工部的消费者价格指数同比上涨5.4%，为2008年8月以来的12个月最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell said two weeks ago that&nbsp;many of the elevated price pressures&nbsp;can still be traced to goods and services affected by supply-chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-driven upheaval. As a result, he said it would be too soon for the Fed to abandon its earlier expectation that prices will return to their 2% target on their own and to raise rates to cool down demand and reduce inflation faster.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔两周前表示，许多价格上涨压力仍然可以追溯到受供应链瓶颈和其他大流行引发的动荡影响的商品和服务。因此，他表示，美联储放弃早先的预期，即物价将自行回到2%的目标，并加息以更快地冷却需求和降低通胀，还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But Mr. Powell could face questions over how long the central bank and its 12-member rate-setting committee feels it would take to revisit their projections. Price pressures in some sectors of the economy where inflation had been subdued over the past year, including residential rents, have picked in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔可能会面临以下问题：央行及其由12名成员组成的利率制定委员会认为需要多长时间才能重新审视他们的预测。过去一年通胀较低的一些经济领域（包括住宅租金）的价格压力在近几个月有所加剧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Delta variant</b></p><p><blockquote><b>德尔塔变异毒株</b></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell is also likely to be pressed on how the recent increase in Covid-19 cases among unvaccinated populations could reshape the central bank’s growth forecasts for the rest of the year. While a return to shutdowns and other state-mandated restrictions on activity seem less likely than a year ago, increased hesitancy on the part of consumers to return to normal spending routines could complicate the economic outlook.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔还可能面临压力，询问最近未接种疫苗人群中Covid-19病例的增加可能如何重塑央行今年剩余时间的增长预测。虽然与一年前相比，恢复停工和其他国家强制的活动限制似乎不太可能，但消费者对恢复正常支出的犹豫可能会使经济前景复杂化。</blockquote></p><p> Since Fed officials last met in June, government-bond prices have jumped, a sign that investors are less confident about long-term growth prospects and less worried about inflation.</p><p><blockquote>自美联储官员6月上次开会以来，政府债券价格大幅上涨，这表明投资者对长期增长前景的信心减弱，对通胀的担忧也减弱。</blockquote></p><p> Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed sharply earlier in the year, lifted by expectations that vaccinations and fiscal stimulus would spur an economic boom. After hitting a 13-month high of 1.75% at the end of March, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined—to 1.57% on June 16, after the Fed concluded its previous meeting, and to 1.24%, a five-month low, when the Fed’s meeting began on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>受疫苗接种和财政刺激措施将刺激经济繁荣的预期提振，收益率在债券价格下跌时上升，今年早些时候大幅攀升。在3月底触及1.75%的13个月高点后，10年期国债收益率已下降——美联储结束上次会议后的6月16日跌至1.57%，并跌至五个月低点1.24%，周二美联储会议开始时。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减时间表。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减时间表。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-28 21:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases</p><p><blockquote>官员们正在寻求就如何以及何时最终减少资产购买达成共识</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b506b5e7aef3659e57731a13007a3078\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"859\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke at a Senate committee hearing earlier this month, has promised ample notice before reducing purchases of securities.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本月早些时候在参议院委员会听证会上发表讲话，承诺在减少证券购买之前会发出充分的通知。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve officials are set to resume deliberations Wednesday about how and when to begin&nbsp;paring their asset purchases&nbsp;amid an economic rebound clouded by supply-chain bottlenecks and rising Covid-19 cases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员将于周三恢复审议，讨论在供应链瓶颈和Covid-19病例增加的情况下，如何以及何时开始削减资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank at the end of last year said it would continue to purchase $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities monthly until officials deemed they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of low unemployment and inflation reaching their 2% goal.</p><p><blockquote>央行去年年底表示，将继续每月购买1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，直到官员们认为他们在实现低失业率和通胀率达到2%的目标方面取得了“实质性的进一步进展”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT. Most of the focus is likely to center on Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what to watch:</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于美国东部时间下午2点发布政策声明。大部分焦点可能集中在下午2:30主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的新闻发布会上。以下是值得关注的内容：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Taper timing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>锥度正时</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials are likely to receive a formal staff briefing around when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them.</p><p><blockquote>官员们可能会收到正式的工作人员简报，内容涉及何时开始削减每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元抵押贷款证券的购买量，以及以多快的速度减少或缩减这些购买量。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed began buying large quantities of the securities in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a near-meltdown in financial markets. With the Fed’s short-term interest rate at zero, the purchases are designed to provide additional stimulus by holding down long-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始大量购买这些证券，当时Covid-19大流行引发了金融市场几近崩溃。由于美联储的短期利率为零，购买旨在通过压低长期利率来提供额外的刺激。</blockquote></p><p> Some officials are concerned&nbsp;that a burst of inflation this year from bottlenecks associated with reopening the economy will prove more durable than previously anticipated. These policy makers are eager to start the taper, in part because they and their colleagues have said they aren’t likely to consider raising interest rates from near zero until they are done tapering the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>一些官员担心，今年因与重新开放经济相关的瓶颈而引发的通胀爆发将比之前预期的更持久。这些政策制定者渴望开始缩减，部分原因是他们和他们的同事表示，在完成缩减资产购买之前，他们不太可能考虑将利率从接近零的水平上调。</blockquote></p><p> Another camp thinks recent&nbsp;price pressures will subside&nbsp;and could leave the Fed in the same position that it faced for much of the past decade, in which global forces kept inflation below 2% even with historically low interest rates. They are worried that accelerating plans to wind down the asset purchases could raise questions among investors about the Fed’s commitment to achieving its economic goals.</p><p><blockquote>另一个阵营认为，最近的价格压力将会消退，并可能使美联储陷入过去十年大部分时间所面临的境地，即即使利率处于历史低位，全球力量仍将通胀率保持在2%以下。他们担心，加速缩减资产购买计划可能会引发投资者对美联储实现经济目标承诺的质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Because Mr. Powell has pledged&nbsp;to provide ample notice&nbsp;to financial markets before the Fed starts tapering&nbsp;to avoid catching investors by surprise, the central bank looks unlikely to start the process now or at its next meeting in September. Mr. Powell’s press conference will be heavily scrutinized for clues on how officials judge recent economic progress. In April, he said the Fed was “a long way from” its tapering goals, and he characterized the economy as “still a ways off” from them in June.</p><p><blockquote>由于鲍威尔承诺在美联储开始缩减规模之前向金融市场发出充分通知，以避免让投资者措手不及，因此美联储现在或在9月份的下一次会议上似乎不太可能启动这一进程。鲍威尔的新闻发布会将受到严格审查，以寻找有关官员如何判断近期经济进展的线索。4月份，他表示美联储距离缩减目标“还有很长的路要走”，6月份他称经济距离目标“还有很长的路要走”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Purchase pace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买节奏</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials also must consider the pace of any reductions. Some officials have discussed concluding the purchases around October 2022 so they could lift rates soon thereafter if the recovery is stronger or inflation is higher than now anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>官员们还必须考虑任何削减的速度。一些官员已经讨论过在2022年10月左右结束购买，以便如果复苏更强劲或通胀高于目前预期，他们可以在此后很快加息。</blockquote></p><p> During a prior asset-purchase program that ended in 2014, the Fed shrank its purchases in modest, equal amounts over the course of 10 months. It then waited another 14 months before raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>在2014年结束的上一次资产购买计划中，美联储在10个月内适度、等量地缩减了购买规模。然后又等了14个月才加息。</blockquote></p><p> Another tactical question centers on whether&nbsp;to reduce the pace of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities equally. Some officials have raised concerns about rising home prices and are pressing to stop purchases of mortgage bonds sooner.</p><p><blockquote>另一个战术问题集中在是否同样降低美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的发行速度。一些官员对房价上涨表示担忧，并敦促尽快停止购买抵押贷款债券。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Powell and other officials have poured cold water on those concerns in recent weeks. They have said mortgage buying, by purchasing longer-dated assets, provides a way to more broadly stimulate the economy and isn’t focused squarely on housing markets.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔和其他官员最近几周对这些担忧泼了冷水。他们表示，通过购买长期资产，抵押贷款购买提供了一种更广泛地刺激经济的方式，并且并不直接关注房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> “If the housing market has you really worried, that’s an argument for just tapering everything sooner and faster,” said William English, a former senior Fed economist who is now a professor at the Yale School of Management.</p><p><blockquote>前美联储高级经济学家、现任耶鲁大学管理学院教授威廉·英格利希(William English)表示：“如果房地产市场真的让你担心，那么这就是越来越快地缩减一切的理由。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀前景</b></blockquote></p><p> For a third straight month in June,inflation ran hotter&nbsp;than many economists had expected. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index increased 5.4% from a year ago, the highest 12-month rate since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>6月份通胀连续第三个月高于许多经济学家的预期。美国劳工部的消费者价格指数同比上涨5.4%，为2008年8月以来的12个月最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell said two weeks ago that&nbsp;many of the elevated price pressures&nbsp;can still be traced to goods and services affected by supply-chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-driven upheaval. As a result, he said it would be too soon for the Fed to abandon its earlier expectation that prices will return to their 2% target on their own and to raise rates to cool down demand and reduce inflation faster.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔两周前表示，许多价格上涨压力仍然可以追溯到受供应链瓶颈和其他大流行引发的动荡影响的商品和服务。因此，他表示，美联储放弃早先的预期，即物价将自行回到2%的目标，并加息以更快地冷却需求和降低通胀，还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But Mr. Powell could face questions over how long the central bank and its 12-member rate-setting committee feels it would take to revisit their projections. Price pressures in some sectors of the economy where inflation had been subdued over the past year, including residential rents, have picked in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔可能会面临以下问题：央行及其由12名成员组成的利率制定委员会认为需要多长时间才能重新审视他们的预测。过去一年通胀较低的一些经济领域（包括住宅租金）的价格压力在近几个月有所加剧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Delta variant</b></p><p><blockquote><b>德尔塔变异毒株</b></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell is also likely to be pressed on how the recent increase in Covid-19 cases among unvaccinated populations could reshape the central bank’s growth forecasts for the rest of the year. While a return to shutdowns and other state-mandated restrictions on activity seem less likely than a year ago, increased hesitancy on the part of consumers to return to normal spending routines could complicate the economic outlook.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔还可能面临压力，询问最近未接种疫苗人群中Covid-19病例的增加可能如何重塑央行今年剩余时间的增长预测。虽然与一年前相比，恢复停工和其他国家强制的活动限制似乎不太可能，但消费者对恢复正常支出的犹豫可能会使经济前景复杂化。</blockquote></p><p> Since Fed officials last met in June, government-bond prices have jumped, a sign that investors are less confident about long-term growth prospects and less worried about inflation.</p><p><blockquote>自美联储官员6月上次开会以来，政府债券价格大幅上涨，这表明投资者对长期增长前景的信心减弱，对通胀的担忧也减弱。</blockquote></p><p> Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed sharply earlier in the year, lifted by expectations that vaccinations and fiscal stimulus would spur an economic boom. After hitting a 13-month high of 1.75% at the end of March, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined—to 1.57% on June 16, after the Fed concluded its previous meeting, and to 1.24%, a five-month low, when the Fed’s meeting began on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>受疫苗接种和财政刺激措施将刺激经济繁荣的预期提振，收益率在债券价格下跌时上升，今年早些时候大幅攀升。在3月底触及1.75%的13个月高点后，10年期国债收益率已下降——美联储结束上次会议后的6月16日跌至1.57%，并跌至五个月低点1.24%，周二美联储会议开始时。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-will-focus-on-tapering-timeline-11627464602?mod=hp_lead_pos2\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-will-focus-on-tapering-timeline-11627464602?mod=hp_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102922788","content_text":"Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke at a Senate committee hearing earlier this month, has promised ample notice before reducing purchases of securities.\nFederal Reserve officials are set to resume deliberations Wednesday about how and when to begin paring their asset purchases amid an economic rebound clouded by supply-chain bottlenecks and rising Covid-19 cases.\nThe central bank at the end of last year said it would continue to purchase $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities monthly until officials deemed they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of low unemployment and inflation reaching their 2% goal.\nThe Fed will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT. Most of the focus is likely to center on Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what to watch:\nTaper timing\nOfficials are likely to receive a formal staff briefing around when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them.\nThe Fed began buying large quantities of the securities in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a near-meltdown in financial markets. With the Fed’s short-term interest rate at zero, the purchases are designed to provide additional stimulus by holding down long-term interest rates.\nSome officials are concerned that a burst of inflation this year from bottlenecks associated with reopening the economy will prove more durable than previously anticipated. These policy makers are eager to start the taper, in part because they and their colleagues have said they aren’t likely to consider raising interest rates from near zero until they are done tapering the asset purchases.\nAnother camp thinks recent price pressures will subside and could leave the Fed in the same position that it faced for much of the past decade, in which global forces kept inflation below 2% even with historically low interest rates. They are worried that accelerating plans to wind down the asset purchases could raise questions among investors about the Fed’s commitment to achieving its economic goals.\nBecause Mr. Powell has pledged to provide ample notice to financial markets before the Fed starts tapering to avoid catching investors by surprise, the central bank looks unlikely to start the process now or at its next meeting in September. Mr. Powell’s press conference will be heavily scrutinized for clues on how officials judge recent economic progress. In April, he said the Fed was “a long way from” its tapering goals, and he characterized the economy as “still a ways off” from them in June.\nPurchase pace\nOfficials also must consider the pace of any reductions. Some officials have discussed concluding the purchases around October 2022 so they could lift rates soon thereafter if the recovery is stronger or inflation is higher than now anticipated.\nDuring a prior asset-purchase program that ended in 2014, the Fed shrank its purchases in modest, equal amounts over the course of 10 months. It then waited another 14 months before raising interest rates.\nAnother tactical question centers on whether to reduce the pace of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities equally. Some officials have raised concerns about rising home prices and are pressing to stop purchases of mortgage bonds sooner.\nBut Mr. Powell and other officials have poured cold water on those concerns in recent weeks. They have said mortgage buying, by purchasing longer-dated assets, provides a way to more broadly stimulate the economy and isn’t focused squarely on housing markets.\n“If the housing market has you really worried, that’s an argument for just tapering everything sooner and faster,” said William English, a former senior Fed economist who is now a professor at the Yale School of Management.\nInflation outlook\nFor a third straight month in June,inflation ran hotter than many economists had expected. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index increased 5.4% from a year ago, the highest 12-month rate since August 2008.\nMr. Powell said two weeks ago that many of the elevated price pressures can still be traced to goods and services affected by supply-chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-driven upheaval. As a result, he said it would be too soon for the Fed to abandon its earlier expectation that prices will return to their 2% target on their own and to raise rates to cool down demand and reduce inflation faster.\nBut Mr. Powell could face questions over how long the central bank and its 12-member rate-setting committee feels it would take to revisit their projections. Price pressures in some sectors of the economy where inflation had been subdued over the past year, including residential rents, have picked in recent months.\nDelta variant\nMr. Powell is also likely to be pressed on how the recent increase in Covid-19 cases among unvaccinated populations could reshape the central bank’s growth forecasts for the rest of the year. While a return to shutdowns and other state-mandated restrictions on activity seem less likely than a year ago, increased hesitancy on the part of consumers to return to normal spending routines could complicate the economic outlook.\nSince Fed officials last met in June, government-bond prices have jumped, a sign that investors are less confident about long-term growth prospects and less worried about inflation.\nYields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed sharply earlier in the year, lifted by expectations that vaccinations and fiscal stimulus would spur an economic boom. After hitting a 13-month high of 1.75% at the end of March, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined—to 1.57% on June 16, after the Fed concluded its previous meeting, and to 1.24%, a five-month low, when the Fed’s meeting began on Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809477845,"gmtCreate":1627391104787,"gmtModify":1633765475096,"author":{"id":"3570884884097684","authorId":"3570884884097684","name":"edcjh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e23ec136c17bd9e18107bab32af71cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570884884097684","authorIdStr":"3570884884097684"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809477845","repostId":"1190390540","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190390540","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627388124,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190390540?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 20:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190390540","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stock Futures Slip With Tech Earnings on Tap\n\n\nQuarterly results are due from Apple, Microsoft and A","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Stock Futures Slip With Tech Earnings on Tap</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>Quarterly results are due from Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet after markets close</li> </ul> U.S. stock index futures fell on Tuesday ahead of earnings reports from the most valuable companies on Wall Street and in the run-up to the two-day Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>科技股盈利即将到来，股指期货下跌</li></ul><ul><li>苹果、微软和Alphabet将于收盘后公布季度业绩</li></ul>周二，在华尔街最有价值公司公布财报之前，以及为期两天的美联储会议前夕，美国股指期货下跌。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 8.25 points, or 0.19%, at 08:05 am ET. Dow E-minis were down 93 points, or 0.27%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 3 points, or 0.02%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:05，美国标普500 e-mini下跌8.25点，即0.19%。道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌93点，跌幅0.27%，纳斯达克100电子迷你指数下跌3点，跌幅0.02%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fb54b80cfb78268a87bd4a378ca296e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Crypto Stocks tumbled in premarket trading&nbsp;on&nbsp;Amazon denimg report of accepting bitcoin as payment.Bit Digital,The9,SOS Ltd,Canaan,Ebang&nbsp;international,Marathon Digital Holdings,Riot Blockchain,Coinbase Global&nbsp;and&nbsp;Square&nbsp;plunged between 2% and 17%.</p><p><blockquote>由于Amazon denimg报告接受比特币作为支付方式，加密货币股票在盘前交易中暴跌。Bit Digital、第九城市、SOS Ltd、嘉楠耘智、亿邦国际、Marathon Digital Holdings、Riot Blockchain、Coinbase Global和Square暴跌2%至17%。</blockquote></p><p> More than one third of the S&amp;P 500 is set to report quarterly results this week, led by Apple, Microsoft, Amazon&nbsp;and Google-parent Alphabet, the four largest U.S. companies by market value.</p><p><blockquote>超过三分之一的标普500将于本周公布季度业绩，其中以苹果、微软、亚马逊和谷歌母公司Alphabet为首，这四家美国市值最大的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft, which were largely flat in premarket trade, are set to report earnings after the market closes, while Amazon will report results on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>苹果、Alphabet和微软的盘前交易基本持平，将在收盘后公布财报，而亚马逊将于周四公布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Investors remained on edge, awaiting more signals from the central bank on when it intends to begin reining in its massive stimulus program. The two-day Fed meeting will begin later in the day.</p><p><blockquote>投资者仍处于紧张状态，等待央行关于何时开始控制大规模刺激计划的更多信号。为期两天的美联储会议将于当天晚些时候开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tesla(TSLA) </b>– Teslaearned $1.45 per sharefor the second quarter, compared to a 98 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also beat forecasts. The automaker said its success during the second half of the year would center around its ability to navigate supply chain issues. Tesla rose 1.6% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉(TSLA)</b>-特斯拉第二季度每股收益1.45美元，而市场普遍预期为每股98美分。收入也超出预期。该汽车制造商表示，下半年的成功将集中在其解决供应链问题的能力上。特斯拉在盘前交易中上涨1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>F5 Networks(FFIV) </b>– F5 beat estimates by 30 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $2.76 per share. The enterprise software maker’s revenue topped analysts’ forecasts as well. F5 saw strong demand amid a continued pandemic-induced growth in digital business applications. F5 rallied 6.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>F5网络(FFIV)</b>-F5每股超出预期30美分，季度收益为每股2.76美元。这家企业软件制造商的收入也超出了分析师的预期。在疫情推动的数字商业应用持续增长的背景下，F5的需求强劲。F5在盘前交易中上涨6.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>United Parcel Service(UPS)</b> – UPS shares fell 2.4% in the premarket, as domestic revenue came up shy of estimates. UPS&nbsp;beat overall on the top and bottom lines, however, as a surge in shipping of e-commerce orders continued. UPS earned $3.06 per share for the second quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of $2.82.</p><p><blockquote><b>联合包裹服务公司(UPS)</b>-由于国内收入低于预期，UPS股价盘前下跌2.4%。然而，随着电子商务订单发货量持续激增，UPS的营收和利润整体表现良好。UPS第二季度每股收益3.06美元，而市场普遍预期为2.82美元。</blockquote></p><p> Stanley Black &amp; Decker(SWK) – The tool maker beat estimates by 18 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $3.08 per share. Revenue topped Street forecasts and the company raised its full-year outlook, expecting growth and stronger pricing to offset higher costs.</p><p><blockquote>Stanley Black&amp;Decker(SWK)——这家工具制造商每股收益超出预期18美分，季度收益为每股3.08美元。收入超出了华尔街的预期，该公司上调了全年预期，预计增长和更强劲的定价将抵消更高的成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3M(MMM)</b> – 3M rose 1.2% in premarket trading, after beating the $2.28 a share consensus estimate with quarterly earnings of $2.59 per share. Revenue beat forecasts as well, and 3M raised its full-year outlook as its various businesses recover from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><b>3M（3M）</b>-3M在盘前交易中上涨1.2%，季度收益为每股2.59美元，超出每股2.28美元的普遍预期。收入也超出了预期，随着各项业务从疫情中复苏，3M上调了全年预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Electric(GE) </b>– GE shares rose 3.9% in premarket action, as it beat forecasts and surprised analysts with positive cash flow for the quarter. GE earned 5 cents per share for the second quarter, 2 cents a share above estimates. Revenue beat estimates as well on strong performances by its aviation and power divisions.</p><p><blockquote><b>通用电气（GE）</b>-GE股价在盘前上涨3.9%，本季度现金流为正，超出预期，令分析师感到惊讶。通用电气第二季度每股收益5美分，比预期高出2美分。由于航空和电力部门的强劲表现，收入也超出了预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Raytheon Technologies(RTX) </b>– Raytheon came in 10 cents a share above estimates, with quarterly earnings of $1.03 per share. Revenue also topped analysts’ forecasts. The aerospace manufacturer raised its full-year forecast, as a recovery in commercial air travel boosted demand for its products and services. Raytheon shares rose 1.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>雷神技术公司(RTX)</b>-雷神公司每股收益比预期高出10美分，季度收益为每股1.03美元。收入也超出了分析师的预期。由于商业航空旅行的复苏提振了对其产品和服务的需求，这家航空航天制造商上调了全年预测。雷神公司股价盘前上涨1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sirius XM(SIRI)</b> – The satellite radio operator beat estimates by 3 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of 10 cents per share. The company also reported better-than-expected revenue. Its profit nearly doubled from a year earlier as it benefited from subscriber additions. The stock gained 3.1% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>天狼星XM（系列）</b>–这家卫星广播运营商每股收益超出预期3美分，季度收益为每股10美分。该公司还报告了好于预期的收入。由于受益于用户的增加，其利润较上年同期几乎翻了一番。该股在盘前上涨3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Waste Management(WM)</b> – The waste collection company came in 8 cents a share above estimates, with quarterly earnings of $1.27 per share. Revenue also exceeded estimates. Waste Management said it benefited from a rebound in volume and a focus on cost controls.</p><p><blockquote><b>废物管理（WM）</b>–这家垃圾收集公司每股收益比预期高出8美分，季度收益为每股1.27美元。收入也超出预期。废物管理公司表示，它受益于数量的反弹和对成本控制的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sherwin-Williams(SHW) </b>– The paint maker fell 3 cents a share shy of consensus estimates, with quarterly earnings of $2.65 per share. Revenue was in line with estimates. Results were impacted by a return in do-it-yourself volumes to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>宣伟(SHW)</b>–该涂料制造商每股股价下跌3美分，比市场普遍预期低，季度收益为每股2.65美元。收入与预期一致。结果受到自己动手量恢复到大流行前水平的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel(INTC) </b>– Intel set out a multi-year plan to regain its dominance in the semiconductor market, aiming to release a new chip each year between now and 2025 and seeking to regain lost market share from competitors like Samsung and&nbsp;Taiwan Semiconductor. Intel fell 1.9% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔(INTC)</b>-英特尔制定了一项多年计划，以重新夺回其在半导体市场的主导地位，目标是从现在到2025年每年发布一款新芯片，并寻求从三星和台积电等竞争对手手中夺回失去的市场份额。英特尔盘前下跌1.9%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Starbucks(SBUX)</b> – Starbucks expanded its partnership with Swiss food giant Nestle, with plans to introduce ready-to-drink coffee beverages in Southeasts Asia and Latin America. Separately, Starbucks sold its stake in its South Korea joint venture to local partner E-Mart and Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund.</p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克(SBUX)</b>-星巴克扩大了与瑞士食品巨头雀巢的合作关系，计划在东南亚和拉丁美洲推出即饮咖啡饮料。另外，星巴克将其在韩国合资企业的股份出售给了当地合作伙伴易买得和新加坡主权财富基金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Polaris Industries(PII)</b> – Polaris reported quarterly profit of $2.70 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $2.21 a share. The recreational vehicle maker’s revenue matched Wall Street projections. Polaris was helped by lower promotional costs and stronger pricing, although it also experienced higher costs for commodities and labor.</p><p><blockquote><b>北极星工业(PII)</b>-北极星公布季度利润为每股2.70美元，超出市场普遍预期的每股2.21美元。这家休闲车制造商的收入符合华尔街的预测。北极星受益于较低的促销成本和更强的定价，尽管它也经历了更高的商品和劳动力成本。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-27 20:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Stock Futures Slip With Tech Earnings on Tap</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>Quarterly results are due from Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet after markets close</li> </ul> U.S. stock index futures fell on Tuesday ahead of earnings reports from the most valuable companies on Wall Street and in the run-up to the two-day Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>科技股盈利即将到来，股指期货下跌</li></ul><ul><li>苹果、微软和Alphabet将于收盘后公布季度业绩</li></ul>周二，在华尔街最有价值公司公布财报之前，以及为期两天的美联储会议前夕，美国股指期货下跌。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 8.25 points, or 0.19%, at 08:05 am ET. Dow E-minis were down 93 points, or 0.27%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 3 points, or 0.02%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:05，美国标普500 e-mini下跌8.25点，即0.19%。道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌93点，跌幅0.27%，纳斯达克100电子迷你指数下跌3点，跌幅0.02%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fb54b80cfb78268a87bd4a378ca296e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Crypto Stocks tumbled in premarket trading&nbsp;on&nbsp;Amazon denimg report of accepting bitcoin as payment.Bit Digital,The9,SOS Ltd,Canaan,Ebang&nbsp;international,Marathon Digital Holdings,Riot Blockchain,Coinbase Global&nbsp;and&nbsp;Square&nbsp;plunged between 2% and 17%.</p><p><blockquote>由于Amazon denimg报告接受比特币作为支付方式，加密货币股票在盘前交易中暴跌。Bit Digital、第九城市、SOS Ltd、嘉楠耘智、亿邦国际、Marathon Digital Holdings、Riot Blockchain、Coinbase Global和Square暴跌2%至17%。</blockquote></p><p> More than one third of the S&amp;P 500 is set to report quarterly results this week, led by Apple, Microsoft, Amazon&nbsp;and Google-parent Alphabet, the four largest U.S. companies by market value.</p><p><blockquote>超过三分之一的标普500将于本周公布季度业绩，其中以苹果、微软、亚马逊和谷歌母公司Alphabet为首，这四家美国市值最大的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft, which were largely flat in premarket trade, are set to report earnings after the market closes, while Amazon will report results on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>苹果、Alphabet和微软的盘前交易基本持平，将在收盘后公布财报，而亚马逊将于周四公布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Investors remained on edge, awaiting more signals from the central bank on when it intends to begin reining in its massive stimulus program. The two-day Fed meeting will begin later in the day.</p><p><blockquote>投资者仍处于紧张状态，等待央行关于何时开始控制大规模刺激计划的更多信号。为期两天的美联储会议将于当天晚些时候开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tesla(TSLA) </b>– Teslaearned $1.45 per sharefor the second quarter, compared to a 98 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also beat forecasts. The automaker said its success during the second half of the year would center around its ability to navigate supply chain issues. Tesla rose 1.6% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉(TSLA)</b>-特斯拉第二季度每股收益1.45美元，而市场普遍预期为每股98美分。收入也超出预期。该汽车制造商表示，下半年的成功将集中在其解决供应链问题的能力上。特斯拉在盘前交易中上涨1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>F5 Networks(FFIV) </b>– F5 beat estimates by 30 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $2.76 per share. The enterprise software maker’s revenue topped analysts’ forecasts as well. F5 saw strong demand amid a continued pandemic-induced growth in digital business applications. F5 rallied 6.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>F5网络(FFIV)</b>-F5每股超出预期30美分，季度收益为每股2.76美元。这家企业软件制造商的收入也超出了分析师的预期。在疫情推动的数字商业应用持续增长的背景下，F5的需求强劲。F5在盘前交易中上涨6.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>United Parcel Service(UPS)</b> – UPS shares fell 2.4% in the premarket, as domestic revenue came up shy of estimates. UPS&nbsp;beat overall on the top and bottom lines, however, as a surge in shipping of e-commerce orders continued. UPS earned $3.06 per share for the second quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of $2.82.</p><p><blockquote><b>联合包裹服务公司(UPS)</b>-由于国内收入低于预期，UPS股价盘前下跌2.4%。然而，随着电子商务订单发货量持续激增，UPS的营收和利润整体表现良好。UPS第二季度每股收益3.06美元，而市场普遍预期为2.82美元。</blockquote></p><p> Stanley Black &amp; Decker(SWK) – The tool maker beat estimates by 18 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $3.08 per share. Revenue topped Street forecasts and the company raised its full-year outlook, expecting growth and stronger pricing to offset higher costs.</p><p><blockquote>Stanley Black&amp;Decker(SWK)——这家工具制造商每股收益超出预期18美分，季度收益为每股3.08美元。收入超出了华尔街的预期，该公司上调了全年预期，预计增长和更强劲的定价将抵消更高的成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3M(MMM)</b> – 3M rose 1.2% in premarket trading, after beating the $2.28 a share consensus estimate with quarterly earnings of $2.59 per share. Revenue beat forecasts as well, and 3M raised its full-year outlook as its various businesses recover from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><b>3M（3M）</b>-3M在盘前交易中上涨1.2%，季度收益为每股2.59美元，超出每股2.28美元的普遍预期。收入也超出了预期，随着各项业务从疫情中复苏，3M上调了全年预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Electric(GE) </b>– GE shares rose 3.9% in premarket action, as it beat forecasts and surprised analysts with positive cash flow for the quarter. GE earned 5 cents per share for the second quarter, 2 cents a share above estimates. Revenue beat estimates as well on strong performances by its aviation and power divisions.</p><p><blockquote><b>通用电气（GE）</b>-GE股价在盘前上涨3.9%，本季度现金流为正，超出预期，令分析师感到惊讶。通用电气第二季度每股收益5美分，比预期高出2美分。由于航空和电力部门的强劲表现，收入也超出了预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Raytheon Technologies(RTX) </b>– Raytheon came in 10 cents a share above estimates, with quarterly earnings of $1.03 per share. Revenue also topped analysts’ forecasts. The aerospace manufacturer raised its full-year forecast, as a recovery in commercial air travel boosted demand for its products and services. Raytheon shares rose 1.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>雷神技术公司(RTX)</b>-雷神公司每股收益比预期高出10美分，季度收益为每股1.03美元。收入也超出了分析师的预期。由于商业航空旅行的复苏提振了对其产品和服务的需求，这家航空航天制造商上调了全年预测。雷神公司股价盘前上涨1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sirius XM(SIRI)</b> – The satellite radio operator beat estimates by 3 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of 10 cents per share. The company also reported better-than-expected revenue. Its profit nearly doubled from a year earlier as it benefited from subscriber additions. The stock gained 3.1% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>天狼星XM（系列）</b>–这家卫星广播运营商每股收益超出预期3美分，季度收益为每股10美分。该公司还报告了好于预期的收入。由于受益于用户的增加，其利润较上年同期几乎翻了一番。该股在盘前上涨3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Waste Management(WM)</b> – The waste collection company came in 8 cents a share above estimates, with quarterly earnings of $1.27 per share. Revenue also exceeded estimates. Waste Management said it benefited from a rebound in volume and a focus on cost controls.</p><p><blockquote><b>废物管理（WM）</b>–这家垃圾收集公司每股收益比预期高出8美分，季度收益为每股1.27美元。收入也超出预期。废物管理公司表示，它受益于数量的反弹和对成本控制的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sherwin-Williams(SHW) </b>– The paint maker fell 3 cents a share shy of consensus estimates, with quarterly earnings of $2.65 per share. Revenue was in line with estimates. Results were impacted by a return in do-it-yourself volumes to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>宣伟(SHW)</b>–该涂料制造商每股股价下跌3美分，比市场普遍预期低，季度收益为每股2.65美元。收入与预期一致。结果受到自己动手量恢复到大流行前水平的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel(INTC) </b>– Intel set out a multi-year plan to regain its dominance in the semiconductor market, aiming to release a new chip each year between now and 2025 and seeking to regain lost market share from competitors like Samsung and&nbsp;Taiwan Semiconductor. Intel fell 1.9% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔(INTC)</b>-英特尔制定了一项多年计划，以重新夺回其在半导体市场的主导地位，目标是从现在到2025年每年发布一款新芯片，并寻求从三星和台积电等竞争对手手中夺回失去的市场份额。英特尔盘前下跌1.9%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Starbucks(SBUX)</b> – Starbucks expanded its partnership with Swiss food giant Nestle, with plans to introduce ready-to-drink coffee beverages in Southeasts Asia and Latin America. Separately, Starbucks sold its stake in its South Korea joint venture to local partner E-Mart and Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund.</p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克(SBUX)</b>-星巴克扩大了与瑞士食品巨头雀巢的合作关系，计划在东南亚和拉丁美洲推出即饮咖啡饮料。另外，星巴克将其在韩国合资企业的股份出售给了当地合作伙伴易买得和新加坡主权财富基金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Polaris Industries(PII)</b> – Polaris reported quarterly profit of $2.70 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $2.21 a share. The recreational vehicle maker’s revenue matched Wall Street projections. Polaris was helped by lower promotional costs and stronger pricing, although it also experienced higher costs for commodities and labor.</p><p><blockquote><b>北极星工业(PII)</b>-北极星公布季度利润为每股2.70美元，超出市场普遍预期的每股2.21美元。这家休闲车制造商的收入符合华尔街的预测。北极星受益于较低的促销成本和更强的定价，尽管它也经历了更高的商品和劳动力成本。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌","GE":"GE航空航天",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPS":"联合包裹","RTX":"雷神技术公司","WM":"美国废物管理","GOOGL":"谷歌A","FFIV":"F5 Inc",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","MMM":"3M","TSLA":"特斯拉","AAPL":"苹果",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SBUX":"星巴克"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190390540","content_text":"Stock Futures Slip With Tech Earnings on Tap\n\n\nQuarterly results are due from Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet after markets close\n\nU.S. stock index futures fell on Tuesday ahead of earnings reports from the most valuable companies on Wall Street and in the run-up to the two-day Federal Reserve meeting.\nU.S. S&P 500 E-minis were down 8.25 points, or 0.19%, at 08:05 am ET. Dow E-minis were down 93 points, or 0.27%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 3 points, or 0.02%.\n\nCrypto Stocks tumbled in premarket trading on Amazon denimg report of accepting bitcoin as payment.Bit Digital,The9,SOS Ltd,Canaan,Ebang international,Marathon Digital Holdings,Riot Blockchain,Coinbase Global and Square plunged between 2% and 17%.\nMore than one third of the S&P 500 is set to report quarterly results this week, led by Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google-parent Alphabet, the four largest U.S. companies by market value.\nApple, Alphabet and Microsoft, which were largely flat in premarket trade, are set to report earnings after the market closes, while Amazon will report results on Thursday.\nInvestors remained on edge, awaiting more signals from the central bank on when it intends to begin reining in its massive stimulus program. The two-day Fed meeting will begin later in the day.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nTesla(TSLA) – Teslaearned $1.45 per sharefor the second quarter, compared to a 98 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also beat forecasts. The automaker said its success during the second half of the year would center around its ability to navigate supply chain issues. Tesla rose 1.6% in premarket trading.\nF5 Networks(FFIV) – F5 beat estimates by 30 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $2.76 per share. The enterprise software maker’s revenue topped analysts’ forecasts as well. F5 saw strong demand amid a continued pandemic-induced growth in digital business applications. F5 rallied 6.1% in premarket trading.\nUnited Parcel Service(UPS) – UPS shares fell 2.4% in the premarket, as domestic revenue came up shy of estimates. UPS beat overall on the top and bottom lines, however, as a surge in shipping of e-commerce orders continued. UPS earned $3.06 per share for the second quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of $2.82.\nStanley Black & Decker(SWK) – The tool maker beat estimates by 18 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $3.08 per share. Revenue topped Street forecasts and the company raised its full-year outlook, expecting growth and stronger pricing to offset higher costs.\n3M(MMM) – 3M rose 1.2% in premarket trading, after beating the $2.28 a share consensus estimate with quarterly earnings of $2.59 per share. Revenue beat forecasts as well, and 3M raised its full-year outlook as its various businesses recover from the pandemic.\nGeneral Electric(GE) – GE shares rose 3.9% in premarket action, as it beat forecasts and surprised analysts with positive cash flow for the quarter. GE earned 5 cents per share for the second quarter, 2 cents a share above estimates. Revenue beat estimates as well on strong performances by its aviation and power divisions.\nRaytheon Technologies(RTX) – Raytheon came in 10 cents a share above estimates, with quarterly earnings of $1.03 per share. Revenue also topped analysts’ forecasts. The aerospace manufacturer raised its full-year forecast, as a recovery in commercial air travel boosted demand for its products and services. Raytheon shares rose 1.7% in the premarket.\nSirius XM(SIRI) – The satellite radio operator beat estimates by 3 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of 10 cents per share. The company also reported better-than-expected revenue. Its profit nearly doubled from a year earlier as it benefited from subscriber additions. The stock gained 3.1% in premarket action.\nWaste Management(WM) – The waste collection company came in 8 cents a share above estimates, with quarterly earnings of $1.27 per share. Revenue also exceeded estimates. Waste Management said it benefited from a rebound in volume and a focus on cost controls.\nSherwin-Williams(SHW) – The paint maker fell 3 cents a share shy of consensus estimates, with quarterly earnings of $2.65 per share. Revenue was in line with estimates. Results were impacted by a return in do-it-yourself volumes to pre-pandemic levels.\nIntel(INTC) – Intel set out a multi-year plan to regain its dominance in the semiconductor market, aiming to release a new chip each year between now and 2025 and seeking to regain lost market share from competitors like Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor. Intel fell 1.9% in the premarket.\nStarbucks(SBUX) – Starbucks expanded its partnership with Swiss food giant Nestle, with plans to introduce ready-to-drink coffee beverages in Southeasts Asia and Latin America. Separately, Starbucks sold its stake in its South Korea joint venture to local partner E-Mart and Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund.\nPolaris Industries(PII) – Polaris reported quarterly profit of $2.70 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $2.21 a share. The recreational vehicle maker’s revenue matched Wall Street projections. Polaris was helped by lower promotional costs and stronger pricing, although it also experienced higher costs for commodities and labor.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"UPS":0.9,"WM":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"GE":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"FFIV":0.9,"RTX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MMM":0.9,"SBUX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800564069,"gmtCreate":1627308939051,"gmtModify":1633766272791,"author":{"id":"3570884884097684","authorId":"3570884884097684","name":"edcjh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e23ec136c17bd9e18107bab32af71cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570884884097684","authorIdStr":"3570884884097684"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800564069","repostId":"2154957883","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177256187,"gmtCreate":1627227414449,"gmtModify":1633767034868,"author":{"id":"3570884884097684","authorId":"3570884884097684","name":"edcjh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e23ec136c17bd9e18107bab32af71cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570884884097684","authorIdStr":"3570884884097684"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177256187","repostId":"2153878189","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174475854,"gmtCreate":1627134162178,"gmtModify":1633767727175,"author":{"id":"3570884884097684","authorId":"3570884884097684","name":"edcjh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e23ec136c17bd9e18107bab32af71cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570884884097684","authorIdStr":"3570884884097684"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174475854","repostId":"1109439356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171943388,"gmtCreate":1626703819644,"gmtModify":1633924789279,"author":{"id":"3570884884097684","authorId":"3570884884097684","name":"edcjh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e23ec136c17bd9e18107bab32af71cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570884884097684","authorIdStr":"3570884884097684"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171943388","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the 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witch! Comment below","listText":"Quad witch! Comment below","text":"Quad witch! Comment below","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160969030","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177256187,"gmtCreate":1627227414449,"gmtModify":1633767034868,"author":{"id":"3570884884097684","authorId":"3570884884097684","name":"edcjh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e23ec136c17bd9e18107bab32af71cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570884884097684","idStr":"3570884884097684"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177256187","repostId":"2153878189","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801313249,"gmtCreate":1627482467581,"gmtModify":1633764567373,"author":{"id":"3570884884097684","authorId":"3570884884097684","name":"edcjh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e23ec136c17bd9e18107bab32af71cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570884884097684","idStr":"3570884884097684"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801313249","repostId":"1102922788","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102922788","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627479526,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102922788?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 21:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减时间表。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102922788","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases\n","content":"<p>Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases</p><p><blockquote>官员们正在寻求就如何以及何时最终减少资产购买达成共识</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b506b5e7aef3659e57731a13007a3078\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"859\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke at a Senate committee hearing earlier this month, has promised ample notice before reducing purchases of securities.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本月早些时候在参议院委员会听证会上发表讲话，承诺在减少证券购买之前会发出充分的通知。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve officials are set to resume deliberations Wednesday about how and when to begin&nbsp;paring their asset purchases&nbsp;amid an economic rebound clouded by supply-chain bottlenecks and rising Covid-19 cases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员将于周三恢复审议，讨论在供应链瓶颈和Covid-19病例增加的情况下，如何以及何时开始削减资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank at the end of last year said it would continue to purchase $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities monthly until officials deemed they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of low unemployment and inflation reaching their 2% goal.</p><p><blockquote>央行去年年底表示，将继续每月购买1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，直到官员们认为他们在实现低失业率和通胀率达到2%的目标方面取得了“实质性的进一步进展”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT. Most of the focus is likely to center on Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what to watch:</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于美国东部时间下午2点发布政策声明。大部分焦点可能集中在下午2:30主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的新闻发布会上。以下是值得关注的内容：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Taper timing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>锥度正时</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials are likely to receive a formal staff briefing around when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them.</p><p><blockquote>官员们可能会收到正式的工作人员简报，内容涉及何时开始削减每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元抵押贷款证券的购买量，以及以多快的速度减少或缩减这些购买量。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed began buying large quantities of the securities in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a near-meltdown in financial markets. With the Fed’s short-term interest rate at zero, the purchases are designed to provide additional stimulus by holding down long-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始大量购买这些证券，当时Covid-19大流行引发了金融市场几近崩溃。由于美联储的短期利率为零，购买旨在通过压低长期利率来提供额外的刺激。</blockquote></p><p> Some officials are concerned&nbsp;that a burst of inflation this year from bottlenecks associated with reopening the economy will prove more durable than previously anticipated. These policy makers are eager to start the taper, in part because they and their colleagues have said they aren’t likely to consider raising interest rates from near zero until they are done tapering the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>一些官员担心，今年因与重新开放经济相关的瓶颈而引发的通胀爆发将比之前预期的更持久。这些政策制定者渴望开始缩减，部分原因是他们和他们的同事表示，在完成缩减资产购买之前，他们不太可能考虑将利率从接近零的水平上调。</blockquote></p><p> Another camp thinks recent&nbsp;price pressures will subside&nbsp;and could leave the Fed in the same position that it faced for much of the past decade, in which global forces kept inflation below 2% even with historically low interest rates. They are worried that accelerating plans to wind down the asset purchases could raise questions among investors about the Fed’s commitment to achieving its economic goals.</p><p><blockquote>另一个阵营认为，最近的价格压力将会消退，并可能使美联储陷入过去十年大部分时间所面临的境地，即即使利率处于历史低位，全球力量仍将通胀率保持在2%以下。他们担心，加速缩减资产购买计划可能会引发投资者对美联储实现经济目标承诺的质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Because Mr. Powell has pledged&nbsp;to provide ample notice&nbsp;to financial markets before the Fed starts tapering&nbsp;to avoid catching investors by surprise, the central bank looks unlikely to start the process now or at its next meeting in September. Mr. Powell’s press conference will be heavily scrutinized for clues on how officials judge recent economic progress. In April, he said the Fed was “a long way from” its tapering goals, and he characterized the economy as “still a ways off” from them in June.</p><p><blockquote>由于鲍威尔承诺在美联储开始缩减规模之前向金融市场发出充分通知，以避免让投资者措手不及，因此美联储现在或在9月份的下一次会议上似乎不太可能启动这一进程。鲍威尔的新闻发布会将受到严格审查，以寻找有关官员如何判断近期经济进展的线索。4月份，他表示美联储距离缩减目标“还有很长的路要走”，6月份他称经济距离目标“还有很长的路要走”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Purchase pace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买节奏</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials also must consider the pace of any reductions. Some officials have discussed concluding the purchases around October 2022 so they could lift rates soon thereafter if the recovery is stronger or inflation is higher than now anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>官员们还必须考虑任何削减的速度。一些官员已经讨论过在2022年10月左右结束购买，以便如果复苏更强劲或通胀高于目前预期，他们可以在此后很快加息。</blockquote></p><p> During a prior asset-purchase program that ended in 2014, the Fed shrank its purchases in modest, equal amounts over the course of 10 months. It then waited another 14 months before raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>在2014年结束的上一次资产购买计划中，美联储在10个月内适度、等量地缩减了购买规模。然后又等了14个月才加息。</blockquote></p><p> Another tactical question centers on whether&nbsp;to reduce the pace of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities equally. Some officials have raised concerns about rising home prices and are pressing to stop purchases of mortgage bonds sooner.</p><p><blockquote>另一个战术问题集中在是否同样降低美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的发行速度。一些官员对房价上涨表示担忧，并敦促尽快停止购买抵押贷款债券。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Powell and other officials have poured cold water on those concerns in recent weeks. They have said mortgage buying, by purchasing longer-dated assets, provides a way to more broadly stimulate the economy and isn’t focused squarely on housing markets.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔和其他官员最近几周对这些担忧泼了冷水。他们表示，通过购买长期资产，抵押贷款购买提供了一种更广泛地刺激经济的方式，并且并不直接关注房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> “If the housing market has you really worried, that’s an argument for just tapering everything sooner and faster,” said William English, a former senior Fed economist who is now a professor at the Yale School of Management.</p><p><blockquote>前美联储高级经济学家、现任耶鲁大学管理学院教授威廉·英格利希(William English)表示：“如果房地产市场真的让你担心，那么这就是越来越快地缩减一切的理由。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀前景</b></blockquote></p><p> For a third straight month in June,inflation ran hotter&nbsp;than many economists had expected. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index increased 5.4% from a year ago, the highest 12-month rate since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>6月份通胀连续第三个月高于许多经济学家的预期。美国劳工部的消费者价格指数同比上涨5.4%，为2008年8月以来的12个月最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell said two weeks ago that&nbsp;many of the elevated price pressures&nbsp;can still be traced to goods and services affected by supply-chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-driven upheaval. As a result, he said it would be too soon for the Fed to abandon its earlier expectation that prices will return to their 2% target on their own and to raise rates to cool down demand and reduce inflation faster.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔两周前表示，许多价格上涨压力仍然可以追溯到受供应链瓶颈和其他大流行引发的动荡影响的商品和服务。因此，他表示，美联储放弃早先的预期，即物价将自行回到2%的目标，并加息以更快地冷却需求和降低通胀，还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But Mr. Powell could face questions over how long the central bank and its 12-member rate-setting committee feels it would take to revisit their projections. Price pressures in some sectors of the economy where inflation had been subdued over the past year, including residential rents, have picked in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔可能会面临以下问题：央行及其由12名成员组成的利率制定委员会认为需要多长时间才能重新审视他们的预测。过去一年通胀较低的一些经济领域（包括住宅租金）的价格压力在近几个月有所加剧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Delta variant</b></p><p><blockquote><b>德尔塔变异毒株</b></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell is also likely to be pressed on how the recent increase in Covid-19 cases among unvaccinated populations could reshape the central bank’s growth forecasts for the rest of the year. While a return to shutdowns and other state-mandated restrictions on activity seem less likely than a year ago, increased hesitancy on the part of consumers to return to normal spending routines could complicate the economic outlook.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔还可能面临压力，询问最近未接种疫苗人群中Covid-19病例的增加可能如何重塑央行今年剩余时间的增长预测。虽然与一年前相比，恢复停工和其他国家强制的活动限制似乎不太可能，但消费者对恢复正常支出的犹豫可能会使经济前景复杂化。</blockquote></p><p> Since Fed officials last met in June, government-bond prices have jumped, a sign that investors are less confident about long-term growth prospects and less worried about inflation.</p><p><blockquote>自美联储官员6月上次开会以来，政府债券价格大幅上涨，这表明投资者对长期增长前景的信心减弱，对通胀的担忧也减弱。</blockquote></p><p> Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed sharply earlier in the year, lifted by expectations that vaccinations and fiscal stimulus would spur an economic boom. After hitting a 13-month high of 1.75% at the end of March, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined—to 1.57% on June 16, after the Fed concluded its previous meeting, and to 1.24%, a five-month low, when the Fed’s meeting began on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>受疫苗接种和财政刺激措施将刺激经济繁荣的预期提振，收益率在债券价格下跌时上升，今年早些时候大幅攀升。在3月底触及1.75%的13个月高点后，10年期国债收益率已下降——美联储结束上次会议后的6月16日跌至1.57%，并跌至五个月低点1.24%，周二美联储会议开始时。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减时间表。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减时间表。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-28 21:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases</p><p><blockquote>官员们正在寻求就如何以及何时最终减少资产购买达成共识</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b506b5e7aef3659e57731a13007a3078\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"859\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke at a Senate committee hearing earlier this month, has promised ample notice before reducing purchases of securities.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本月早些时候在参议院委员会听证会上发表讲话，承诺在减少证券购买之前会发出充分的通知。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve officials are set to resume deliberations Wednesday about how and when to begin&nbsp;paring their asset purchases&nbsp;amid an economic rebound clouded by supply-chain bottlenecks and rising Covid-19 cases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员将于周三恢复审议，讨论在供应链瓶颈和Covid-19病例增加的情况下，如何以及何时开始削减资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank at the end of last year said it would continue to purchase $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities monthly until officials deemed they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of low unemployment and inflation reaching their 2% goal.</p><p><blockquote>央行去年年底表示，将继续每月购买1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，直到官员们认为他们在实现低失业率和通胀率达到2%的目标方面取得了“实质性的进一步进展”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT. Most of the focus is likely to center on Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what to watch:</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于美国东部时间下午2点发布政策声明。大部分焦点可能集中在下午2:30主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的新闻发布会上。以下是值得关注的内容：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Taper timing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>锥度正时</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials are likely to receive a formal staff briefing around when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them.</p><p><blockquote>官员们可能会收到正式的工作人员简报，内容涉及何时开始削减每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元抵押贷款证券的购买量，以及以多快的速度减少或缩减这些购买量。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed began buying large quantities of the securities in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a near-meltdown in financial markets. With the Fed’s short-term interest rate at zero, the purchases are designed to provide additional stimulus by holding down long-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始大量购买这些证券，当时Covid-19大流行引发了金融市场几近崩溃。由于美联储的短期利率为零，购买旨在通过压低长期利率来提供额外的刺激。</blockquote></p><p> Some officials are concerned&nbsp;that a burst of inflation this year from bottlenecks associated with reopening the economy will prove more durable than previously anticipated. These policy makers are eager to start the taper, in part because they and their colleagues have said they aren’t likely to consider raising interest rates from near zero until they are done tapering the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>一些官员担心，今年因与重新开放经济相关的瓶颈而引发的通胀爆发将比之前预期的更持久。这些政策制定者渴望开始缩减，部分原因是他们和他们的同事表示，在完成缩减资产购买之前，他们不太可能考虑将利率从接近零的水平上调。</blockquote></p><p> Another camp thinks recent&nbsp;price pressures will subside&nbsp;and could leave the Fed in the same position that it faced for much of the past decade, in which global forces kept inflation below 2% even with historically low interest rates. They are worried that accelerating plans to wind down the asset purchases could raise questions among investors about the Fed’s commitment to achieving its economic goals.</p><p><blockquote>另一个阵营认为，最近的价格压力将会消退，并可能使美联储陷入过去十年大部分时间所面临的境地，即即使利率处于历史低位，全球力量仍将通胀率保持在2%以下。他们担心，加速缩减资产购买计划可能会引发投资者对美联储实现经济目标承诺的质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Because Mr. Powell has pledged&nbsp;to provide ample notice&nbsp;to financial markets before the Fed starts tapering&nbsp;to avoid catching investors by surprise, the central bank looks unlikely to start the process now or at its next meeting in September. Mr. Powell’s press conference will be heavily scrutinized for clues on how officials judge recent economic progress. In April, he said the Fed was “a long way from” its tapering goals, and he characterized the economy as “still a ways off” from them in June.</p><p><blockquote>由于鲍威尔承诺在美联储开始缩减规模之前向金融市场发出充分通知，以避免让投资者措手不及，因此美联储现在或在9月份的下一次会议上似乎不太可能启动这一进程。鲍威尔的新闻发布会将受到严格审查，以寻找有关官员如何判断近期经济进展的线索。4月份，他表示美联储距离缩减目标“还有很长的路要走”，6月份他称经济距离目标“还有很长的路要走”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Purchase pace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买节奏</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials also must consider the pace of any reductions. Some officials have discussed concluding the purchases around October 2022 so they could lift rates soon thereafter if the recovery is stronger or inflation is higher than now anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>官员们还必须考虑任何削减的速度。一些官员已经讨论过在2022年10月左右结束购买，以便如果复苏更强劲或通胀高于目前预期，他们可以在此后很快加息。</blockquote></p><p> During a prior asset-purchase program that ended in 2014, the Fed shrank its purchases in modest, equal amounts over the course of 10 months. It then waited another 14 months before raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>在2014年结束的上一次资产购买计划中，美联储在10个月内适度、等量地缩减了购买规模。然后又等了14个月才加息。</blockquote></p><p> Another tactical question centers on whether&nbsp;to reduce the pace of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities equally. Some officials have raised concerns about rising home prices and are pressing to stop purchases of mortgage bonds sooner.</p><p><blockquote>另一个战术问题集中在是否同样降低美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的发行速度。一些官员对房价上涨表示担忧，并敦促尽快停止购买抵押贷款债券。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Powell and other officials have poured cold water on those concerns in recent weeks. They have said mortgage buying, by purchasing longer-dated assets, provides a way to more broadly stimulate the economy and isn’t focused squarely on housing markets.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔和其他官员最近几周对这些担忧泼了冷水。他们表示，通过购买长期资产，抵押贷款购买提供了一种更广泛地刺激经济的方式，并且并不直接关注房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> “If the housing market has you really worried, that’s an argument for just tapering everything sooner and faster,” said William English, a former senior Fed economist who is now a professor at the Yale School of Management.</p><p><blockquote>前美联储高级经济学家、现任耶鲁大学管理学院教授威廉·英格利希(William English)表示：“如果房地产市场真的让你担心，那么这就是越来越快地缩减一切的理由。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀前景</b></blockquote></p><p> For a third straight month in June,inflation ran hotter&nbsp;than many economists had expected. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index increased 5.4% from a year ago, the highest 12-month rate since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>6月份通胀连续第三个月高于许多经济学家的预期。美国劳工部的消费者价格指数同比上涨5.4%，为2008年8月以来的12个月最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell said two weeks ago that&nbsp;many of the elevated price pressures&nbsp;can still be traced to goods and services affected by supply-chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-driven upheaval. As a result, he said it would be too soon for the Fed to abandon its earlier expectation that prices will return to their 2% target on their own and to raise rates to cool down demand and reduce inflation faster.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔两周前表示，许多价格上涨压力仍然可以追溯到受供应链瓶颈和其他大流行引发的动荡影响的商品和服务。因此，他表示，美联储放弃早先的预期，即物价将自行回到2%的目标，并加息以更快地冷却需求和降低通胀，还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But Mr. Powell could face questions over how long the central bank and its 12-member rate-setting committee feels it would take to revisit their projections. Price pressures in some sectors of the economy where inflation had been subdued over the past year, including residential rents, have picked in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔可能会面临以下问题：央行及其由12名成员组成的利率制定委员会认为需要多长时间才能重新审视他们的预测。过去一年通胀较低的一些经济领域（包括住宅租金）的价格压力在近几个月有所加剧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Delta variant</b></p><p><blockquote><b>德尔塔变异毒株</b></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell is also likely to be pressed on how the recent increase in Covid-19 cases among unvaccinated populations could reshape the central bank’s growth forecasts for the rest of the year. While a return to shutdowns and other state-mandated restrictions on activity seem less likely than a year ago, increased hesitancy on the part of consumers to return to normal spending routines could complicate the economic outlook.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔还可能面临压力，询问最近未接种疫苗人群中Covid-19病例的增加可能如何重塑央行今年剩余时间的增长预测。虽然与一年前相比，恢复停工和其他国家强制的活动限制似乎不太可能，但消费者对恢复正常支出的犹豫可能会使经济前景复杂化。</blockquote></p><p> Since Fed officials last met in June, government-bond prices have jumped, a sign that investors are less confident about long-term growth prospects and less worried about inflation.</p><p><blockquote>自美联储官员6月上次开会以来，政府债券价格大幅上涨，这表明投资者对长期增长前景的信心减弱，对通胀的担忧也减弱。</blockquote></p><p> Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed sharply earlier in the year, lifted by expectations that vaccinations and fiscal stimulus would spur an economic boom. After hitting a 13-month high of 1.75% at the end of March, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined—to 1.57% on June 16, after the Fed concluded its previous meeting, and to 1.24%, a five-month low, when the Fed’s meeting began on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>受疫苗接种和财政刺激措施将刺激经济繁荣的预期提振，收益率在债券价格下跌时上升，今年早些时候大幅攀升。在3月底触及1.75%的13个月高点后，10年期国债收益率已下降——美联储结束上次会议后的6月16日跌至1.57%，并跌至五个月低点1.24%，周二美联储会议开始时。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-will-focus-on-tapering-timeline-11627464602?mod=hp_lead_pos2\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-will-focus-on-tapering-timeline-11627464602?mod=hp_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102922788","content_text":"Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke at a Senate committee hearing earlier this month, has promised ample notice before reducing purchases of securities.\nFederal Reserve officials are set to resume deliberations Wednesday about how and when to begin paring their asset purchases amid an economic rebound clouded by supply-chain bottlenecks and rising Covid-19 cases.\nThe central bank at the end of last year said it would continue to purchase $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities monthly until officials deemed they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of low unemployment and inflation reaching their 2% goal.\nThe Fed will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT. Most of the focus is likely to center on Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what to watch:\nTaper timing\nOfficials are likely to receive a formal staff briefing around when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them.\nThe Fed began buying large quantities of the securities in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a near-meltdown in financial markets. With the Fed’s short-term interest rate at zero, the purchases are designed to provide additional stimulus by holding down long-term interest rates.\nSome officials are concerned that a burst of inflation this year from bottlenecks associated with reopening the economy will prove more durable than previously anticipated. These policy makers are eager to start the taper, in part because they and their colleagues have said they aren’t likely to consider raising interest rates from near zero until they are done tapering the asset purchases.\nAnother camp thinks recent price pressures will subside and could leave the Fed in the same position that it faced for much of the past decade, in which global forces kept inflation below 2% even with historically low interest rates. They are worried that accelerating plans to wind down the asset purchases could raise questions among investors about the Fed’s commitment to achieving its economic goals.\nBecause Mr. Powell has pledged to provide ample notice to financial markets before the Fed starts tapering to avoid catching investors by surprise, the central bank looks unlikely to start the process now or at its next meeting in September. Mr. Powell’s press conference will be heavily scrutinized for clues on how officials judge recent economic progress. In April, he said the Fed was “a long way from” its tapering goals, and he characterized the economy as “still a ways off” from them in June.\nPurchase pace\nOfficials also must consider the pace of any reductions. Some officials have discussed concluding the purchases around October 2022 so they could lift rates soon thereafter if the recovery is stronger or inflation is higher than now anticipated.\nDuring a prior asset-purchase program that ended in 2014, the Fed shrank its purchases in modest, equal amounts over the course of 10 months. It then waited another 14 months before raising interest rates.\nAnother tactical question centers on whether to reduce the pace of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities equally. Some officials have raised concerns about rising home prices and are pressing to stop purchases of mortgage bonds sooner.\nBut Mr. Powell and other officials have poured cold water on those concerns in recent weeks. They have said mortgage buying, by purchasing longer-dated assets, provides a way to more broadly stimulate the economy and isn’t focused squarely on housing markets.\n“If the housing market has you really worried, that’s an argument for just tapering everything sooner and faster,” said William English, a former senior Fed economist who is now a professor at the Yale School of Management.\nInflation outlook\nFor a third straight month in June,inflation ran hotter than many economists had expected. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index increased 5.4% from a year ago, the highest 12-month rate since August 2008.\nMr. Powell said two weeks ago that many of the elevated price pressures can still be traced to goods and services affected by supply-chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-driven upheaval. As a result, he said it would be too soon for the Fed to abandon its earlier expectation that prices will return to their 2% target on their own and to raise rates to cool down demand and reduce inflation faster.\nBut Mr. Powell could face questions over how long the central bank and its 12-member rate-setting committee feels it would take to revisit their projections. Price pressures in some sectors of the economy where inflation had been subdued over the past year, including residential rents, have picked in recent months.\nDelta variant\nMr. Powell is also likely to be pressed on how the recent increase in Covid-19 cases among unvaccinated populations could reshape the central bank’s growth forecasts for the rest of the year. While a return to shutdowns and other state-mandated restrictions on activity seem less likely than a year ago, increased hesitancy on the part of consumers to return to normal spending routines could complicate the economic outlook.\nSince Fed officials last met in June, government-bond prices have jumped, a sign that investors are less confident about long-term growth prospects and less worried about inflation.\nYields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed sharply earlier in the year, lifted by expectations that vaccinations and fiscal stimulus would spur an economic boom. After hitting a 13-month high of 1.75% at the end of March, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined—to 1.57% on June 16, after the Fed concluded its previous meeting, and to 1.24%, a five-month low, when the Fed’s meeting began on Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147215379,"gmtCreate":1626359297091,"gmtModify":1633927512642,"author":{"id":"3570884884097684","authorId":"3570884884097684","name":"edcjh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e23ec136c17bd9e18107bab32af71cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570884884097684","idStr":"3570884884097684"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147215379","repostId":"1176592870","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143018754,"gmtCreate":1625752361278,"gmtModify":1633937704083,"author":{"id":"3570884884097684","authorId":"3570884884097684","name":"edcjh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e23ec136c17bd9e18107bab32af71cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570884884097684","idStr":"3570884884097684"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143018754","repostId":"1162204971","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179776300,"gmtCreate":1626581326200,"gmtModify":1633925690362,"author":{"id":"3570884884097684","authorId":"3570884884097684","name":"edcjh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e23ec136c17bd9e18107bab32af71cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570884884097684","idStr":"3570884884097684"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179776300","repostId":"1183956332","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146832192,"gmtCreate":1626064928816,"gmtModify":1633930476260,"author":{"id":"3570884884097684","authorId":"3570884884097684","name":"edcjh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e23ec136c17bd9e18107bab32af71cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570884884097684","idStr":"3570884884097684"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok yes","listText":"Ok yes","text":"Ok yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146832192","repostId":"1114863871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140693454,"gmtCreate":1625651325678,"gmtModify":1633938721131,"author":{"id":"3570884884097684","authorId":"3570884884097684","name":"edcjh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e23ec136c17bd9e18107bab32af71cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570884884097684","idStr":"3570884884097684"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140693454","repostId":"1142292077","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}