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jowell
2021-06-15
sweet
Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote>
jowell
2021-06-15
nice!!
抱歉，原内容已删除
jowell
2021-06-15
sick
抱歉，原内容已删除
jowell
2021-06-15
sweet!
What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议值得期待</blockquote>
jowell
2021-06-15
!!!
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14:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136326531","media":"Associated Press","summary":"WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised ","content":"<p>WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿（美联社）——随着快速反弹的经济中通胀上升，美联储本周准备讨论何时采取第一步措施减少超低利率政策。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.</p><p><blockquote>这将是一场令人担忧的讨论，可能会在几个月内进行。然而，不断升级的通胀迫使消费者和企业支付更多费用，这加大了美联储的压力，要求其确保物价上涨不会在消费者的前景中根深蒂固。如果美国人开始预期价格上涨，他们可能会采取行动——比如在价格进一步上涨之前加快购买速度——这可能会导致通胀更高。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.</p><p><blockquote>美联储面临着一个两难的境地： 一方面，通胀上升速度比今年早些时候预测的要快得多，尽管美联储将价格压力定性为 “暂时性”，是供应短缺和快速复苏的结果。另一方面，招聘速度低于美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在 4 月底美联储最近一次会议后的新闻发布会上提到的基准。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔当时表示，他希望看到 “一连串 ”招聘报告，显示每月新增约 100 万个工作岗位。尽管雇主发布的职位空缺数量创历史新高，但今年就业市场从未达到过这一总数。</blockquote></p><p> With the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济形势仍被经济衰退后重新开放的混乱所笼罩，预计周三美联储最新一次政策会议结束，鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会，不会做出重大决定。美联储将把关键短期利率维持在接近于零的水平，并继续每月购买1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款债券。这些购买旨在保持长期利率较低，以鼓励借贷和支出。</blockquote></p><p> But the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>但美联储的政策制定委员会似乎可能会开始讨论逐步减少债券购买的时机和机制。向公众传达这一决定将是一项敏感的任务。如果美联储表示将比市场预期更早缩减购买量，那么2013年的“缩减购买量狂潮”就有可能重演。</blockquote></p><p> That occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.</p><p><blockquote>当时的美联储主席本-伯南克（Ben Bernanke）暗示美联储可能会在 “接下来的几次会议 ”缩减债券购买规模，这震惊了金融市场--比交易员预期的要早。伯南克的言论导致长期债券收益率飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Having learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.</p><p><blockquote>从那次事件中吸取教训后，鲍威尔很可能会在美联储2017年决定缓慢减少大衰退后积累的债券持有量后采取任何缩减规模的行动。该计划的第一个暗示出现在最终决定做出前六个月。经济学家预计现在也会有类似的时间表，这表明年底前不会出现任何缩减规模的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>上周，政府报告称，与去年同期相比，5 月份通胀率跃升至 5%，这是自 2008 年以来 12 个月以来最大的涨幅。这一增长的部分原因是二手车价格大幅上涨，由于半导体短缺导致汽车生产放缓，二手车价格飙升。汽车租赁公司不得不购买二手车来重建车队，其中大部分在疫情期间被出售。</blockquote></p><p> Other inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.</p><p><blockquote>其他通胀驱动因素还包括机票、汽车租赁和酒店客房等服务，这些服务的价格在 COVID-19 爆发之初就暴跌，现在正在恢复到大流行前的水平。随着越来越多的人重返工作岗位，美国经济的重新开放也迫使服装价格上涨。这种价格上涨可能不会持续。</blockquote></p><p> “I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p><blockquote>“投资公司麦凯-希尔兹（Mackay Shields）经济学家、纽约联邦储备银行前高级职员史蒂夫-弗里德曼（Steve Friedman）说：”我认为他们仍然强烈地认为，我们所看到的只是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Another key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是通货膨胀是否持续足够长的时间来影响公众的行为。如果美国人开始预期物价上涨，这些预期可能会变得自我实现。</blockquote></p><p> So far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，债券收益率和消费者调查表明，虽然短期内预计通胀会上升，但投资者和大多数公众预计从长远来看，价格只会温和上涨。鲍威尔长期以来一直认为，公众对未来通胀的看法只会缓慢演变。</blockquote></p><p> “The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>“美联储董事会六位理事之一的莱尔-布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）本月早些时候表示：”某些类别商品和服务的临时大幅上涨似乎不太可能对长期通胀行为产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.</p><p><blockquote>因此，政策制定者本周可能会开始讨论缩减债券购买规模。但在做出决定之前，可能还需要几个月的时间。</blockquote></p><p> “We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.</p><p><blockquote>“纽约联邦储备委员会主席约翰-威廉姆斯（John Williams）本月早些时候在接受雅虎财经采访时说：”我们必须提前思考，提前规划，因此我认为我们考虑未来可能有的各种选择是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> At the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，被视为与鲍威尔关系密切的威廉姆斯表示，“在我看来，我们距离取得我们真正寻求的实质性进一步进展 ”还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是，美联储官员从未明确在实现充分就业和通胀率达到或略高于 2% 的双重目标方面取得 “实质性进一步进展 ”会是什么样子。</blockquote></p><p> That’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>弗里德曼说，这是政策制定者需要讨论的一个问题，以及一旦开始缩减债券购买规模，他们将以多快的速度减少债券购买规模。另一个是他们是否应该以同样的速度减少国债和抵押贷款债券的购买。一些经济学家赞成大幅减少抵押贷款债券的购买，他们认为，这现在给房地产市场带来了不必要的提振。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储还将更新季度经济和利率预测。许多经济学家预计官员们将发出信号，表示他们预计将在 2023 年底开始提高基准利率。这将标志着一个转变： 政策制定者此前在 3 月份的预测显示，2023 年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员也可能大幅上调今年的通胀预测，但未来两年只会小幅上调，以表明他们预计物价涨幅将放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603278176698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDelicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Associated Press</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 14:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿（美联社）——随着快速反弹的经济中通胀上升，美联储本周准备讨论何时采取第一步措施减少超低利率政策。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.</p><p><blockquote>这将是一场令人担忧的讨论，可能会在几个月内进行。然而，不断升级的通胀迫使消费者和企业支付更多费用，这加大了美联储的压力，要求其确保物价上涨不会在消费者的前景中根深蒂固。如果美国人开始预期价格上涨，他们可能会采取行动——比如在价格进一步上涨之前加快购买速度——这可能会导致通胀更高。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.</p><p><blockquote>美联储面临着一个两难的境地： 一方面，通胀上升速度比今年早些时候预测的要快得多，尽管美联储将价格压力定性为 “暂时性”，是供应短缺和快速复苏的结果。另一方面，招聘速度低于美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在 4 月底美联储最近一次会议后的新闻发布会上提到的基准。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔当时表示，他希望看到 “一连串 ”招聘报告，显示每月新增约 100 万个工作岗位。尽管雇主发布的职位空缺数量创历史新高，但今年就业市场从未达到过这一总数。</blockquote></p><p> With the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济形势仍被经济衰退后重新开放的混乱所笼罩，预计周三美联储最新一次政策会议结束，鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会，不会做出重大决定。美联储将把关键短期利率维持在接近于零的水平，并继续每月购买1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款债券。这些购买旨在保持长期利率较低，以鼓励借贷和支出。</blockquote></p><p> But the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>但美联储的政策制定委员会似乎可能会开始讨论逐步减少债券购买的时机和机制。向公众传达这一决定将是一项敏感的任务。如果美联储表示将比市场预期更早缩减购买量，那么2013年的“缩减购买量狂潮”就有可能重演。</blockquote></p><p> That occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.</p><p><blockquote>当时的美联储主席本-伯南克（Ben Bernanke）暗示美联储可能会在 “接下来的几次会议 ”缩减债券购买规模，这震惊了金融市场--比交易员预期的要早。伯南克的言论导致长期债券收益率飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Having learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.</p><p><blockquote>从那次事件中吸取教训后，鲍威尔很可能会在美联储2017年决定缓慢减少大衰退后积累的债券持有量后采取任何缩减规模的行动。该计划的第一个暗示出现在最终决定做出前六个月。经济学家预计现在也会有类似的时间表，这表明年底前不会出现任何缩减规模的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>上周，政府报告称，与去年同期相比，5 月份通胀率跃升至 5%，这是自 2008 年以来 12 个月以来最大的涨幅。这一增长的部分原因是二手车价格大幅上涨，由于半导体短缺导致汽车生产放缓，二手车价格飙升。汽车租赁公司不得不购买二手车来重建车队，其中大部分在疫情期间被出售。</blockquote></p><p> Other inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.</p><p><blockquote>其他通胀驱动因素还包括机票、汽车租赁和酒店客房等服务，这些服务的价格在 COVID-19 爆发之初就暴跌，现在正在恢复到大流行前的水平。随着越来越多的人重返工作岗位，美国经济的重新开放也迫使服装价格上涨。这种价格上涨可能不会持续。</blockquote></p><p> “I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p><blockquote>“投资公司麦凯-希尔兹（Mackay Shields）经济学家、纽约联邦储备银行前高级职员史蒂夫-弗里德曼（Steve Friedman）说：”我认为他们仍然强烈地认为，我们所看到的只是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Another key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是通货膨胀是否持续足够长的时间来影响公众的行为。如果美国人开始预期物价上涨，这些预期可能会变得自我实现。</blockquote></p><p> So far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，债券收益率和消费者调查表明，虽然短期内预计通胀会上升，但投资者和大多数公众预计从长远来看，价格只会温和上涨。鲍威尔长期以来一直认为，公众对未来通胀的看法只会缓慢演变。</blockquote></p><p> “The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>“美联储董事会六位理事之一的莱尔-布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）本月早些时候表示：”某些类别商品和服务的临时大幅上涨似乎不太可能对长期通胀行为产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.</p><p><blockquote>因此，政策制定者本周可能会开始讨论缩减债券购买规模。但在做出决定之前，可能还需要几个月的时间。</blockquote></p><p> “We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.</p><p><blockquote>“纽约联邦储备委员会主席约翰-威廉姆斯（John Williams）本月早些时候在接受雅虎财经采访时说：”我们必须提前思考，提前规划，因此我认为我们考虑未来可能有的各种选择是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> At the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，被视为与鲍威尔关系密切的威廉姆斯表示，“在我看来，我们距离取得我们真正寻求的实质性进一步进展 ”还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是，美联储官员从未明确在实现充分就业和通胀率达到或略高于 2% 的双重目标方面取得 “实质性进一步进展 ”会是什么样子。</blockquote></p><p> That’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>弗里德曼说，这是政策制定者需要讨论的一个问题，以及一旦开始缩减债券购买规模，他们将以多快的速度减少债券购买规模。另一个是他们是否应该以同样的速度减少国债和抵押贷款债券的购买。一些经济学家赞成大幅减少抵押贷款债券的购买，他们认为，这现在给房地产市场带来了不必要的提振。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储还将更新季度经济和利率预测。许多经济学家预计官员们将发出信号，表示他们预计将在 2023 年底开始提高基准利率。这将标志着一个转变： 政策制定者此前在 3 月份的预测显示，2023 年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员也可能大幅上调今年的通胀预测，但未来两年只会小幅上调，以表明他们预计物价涨幅将放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-business-c96d2b9c8a6a4e6320340dbc8bab449c\">Associated Press</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-business-c96d2b9c8a6a4e6320340dbc8bab449c","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136326531","content_text":"WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.\nIt will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.\nThe Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.\nPowell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.\nWith the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.\nBut the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.\nThat occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.\nHaving learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.\nLast week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.\nOther inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.\n“I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.\nAnother key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.\nSo far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.\n“The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.\nAs a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.\n“We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.\nAt the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.\nAnother challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.\nThat’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.\nFed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187387498,"gmtCreate":1623741670314,"gmtModify":1634029276295,"author":{"id":"3570418864419786","authorId":"3570418864419786","name":"jowell","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570418864419786","authorIdStr":"3570418864419786"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"sick","listText":"sick","text":"sick","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187387498","repostId":"2143973689","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187387644,"gmtCreate":1623741654988,"gmtModify":1634029276660,"author":{"id":"3570418864419786","authorId":"3570418864419786","name":"jowell","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570418864419786","authorIdStr":"3570418864419786"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"sweet!","listText":"sweet!","text":"sweet!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187387644","repostId":"1138219989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138219989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623650085,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138219989?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议值得期待</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138219989","media":"Barrons","summary":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again a","content":"<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>随着联邦公开市场委员会下周召开定期政策会议，分析师和投资者应该再次颠覆尼克松时代的陈词滥调，关注他们所说的，而不是他们所做的。每个人都想知道的是，该小组是否最终开始谈论放弃其超级宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> We all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).</p><p><blockquote>我们都知道，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）不会在其大规模证券购买方面采取任何实质性措施，而这些证券购买仍在以每月1200亿美元的速度进行。至于其主要的联邦基金利率目标，则停留在 0% 至 0.25%（尽管美联储管理的其他一些利率有可能进行技术性调整，以解决货币市场上数十亿美元的过剩现金问题）。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted on the Fed’s website at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.</p><p><blockquote>我们将关注联邦公开市场委员会的正式政策声明和该小组最新的经济预测摘要，其中将包括委员会成员对国内生产总值、通货膨胀和失业率等关键经济指标的猜测。最有可能的是，当美联储网站于美国东部时间周三下午 2 点发布这一消息时，大多数人可能会直奔联邦公开市场委员会对联邦基金利率的猜测，特别是何时最终有望从接近于零的水平回升。</blockquote></p><p> The “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.</p><p><blockquote>“点阵图”--或联邦公开市场委员会成员一致猜测的图表--将首次加息一直推迟到 2023 年之后。这似乎是一个非常长期的预测，正如约翰-梅纳德-凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）的名言，从长远来看，我们都死了。摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）首席美国经济学家迈克尔-费罗利（Michael Feroli）等一些美联储观察家认为，美联储将在2023年有所回升。</blockquote></p><p> The markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for Natixis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经预计到 2023 年联邦基金将加息一次或多次。但在之前讨论的长期债券收益率下滑的同时，利率期货市场实际上已经将其中一次短期加息定价。此外，据 Natixis 分析师称，衍生品市场目前联邦基金利率峰值低于 2%，比今年早些时候的定价低约 0.4 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Long before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.</p><p><blockquote>早在加息之前，美联储就会开始通过放缓目前的证券购买步伐来减少宽松，其中包括每月 800 亿美元的国债和 400 亿美元的机构抵押贷款支持证券。根据美联储上周发布的新数据，美联储和其他央行创造的数万亿美元对第一季度资产价值的提升大有帮助，资产价值增加了5万亿美元，达到136.9万亿美元。其中包括家庭持有的股票价值增加 3.2 万亿美元，家庭持有的房地产增加 9,680 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.</p><p><blockquote>美联储减少宽松政策的关键标准是货币当局是否认为在实现他们认为的最大就业方面取得了 “实质性的进一步进展”，这可能是一个故意模糊的标准。</blockquote></p><p> But the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed a record 9.3 million unfilled openings in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.</p><p><blockquote>但就业人数的增长似乎既受到劳动力供应的制约，也受到企业招聘意愿的制约。最新的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（Jolts）显示，4月份有创纪录的930万个职位空缺。此外，当月有384,000人离职，使自愿离职的总人数达到创纪录的400万。</blockquote></p><p> Anecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.</p><p><blockquote>一些轶事证据，包括美联储为即将召开的会议准备的褐皮书《经济状况摘要》中的一些轶事证据，表明由于丰厚的失业救济金，雇主找不到足够的工人。对于经济学等社会科学来说，这是不寻常的，随着 25 个州提前结束每周额外 300 美元的付款，将会有一个实时实验来检验这一假设。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons在一份研究报告中写道，这25个州约占所有失业工人的四分之一。他们估计，结束额外的失业救济金可能会在未来几个月内增加大约200万人的就业机会。在其余州的额外失业保险到期后，9月和10月应该会出现另一次增长激增；学校重新开放——为一些未来的工人，尤其是妇女提供免费日托；他们补充说，许多上班族回到了办公桌前。</blockquote></p><p> At that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.</p><p><blockquote>到那时，美联储可能会开始讨论实际减少其大规模证券购买。鉴于美联储在 2013 年放缓债券购买速度时市场掀起了 “缩减债券狂潮”，本届美联储将希望披露其计划如何、何时以及以多快的速度放缓向潘趣酒碗中注入债券。这就是我们本周将收听的内容。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议值得期待</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议值得期待</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 13:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>随着联邦公开市场委员会下周召开定期政策会议，分析师和投资者应该再次颠覆尼克松时代的陈词滥调，关注他们所说的，而不是他们所做的。每个人都想知道的是，该小组是否最终开始谈论放弃其超级宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> We all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).</p><p><blockquote>我们都知道，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）不会在其大规模证券购买方面采取任何实质性措施，而这些证券购买仍在以每月1200亿美元的速度进行。至于其主要的联邦基金利率目标，则停留在 0% 至 0.25%（尽管美联储管理的其他一些利率有可能进行技术性调整，以解决货币市场上数十亿美元的过剩现金问题）。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted on the Fed’s website at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.</p><p><blockquote>我们将关注联邦公开市场委员会的正式政策声明和该小组最新的经济预测摘要，其中将包括委员会成员对国内生产总值、通货膨胀和失业率等关键经济指标的猜测。最有可能的是，当美联储网站于美国东部时间周三下午 2 点发布这一消息时，大多数人可能会直奔联邦公开市场委员会对联邦基金利率的猜测，特别是何时最终有望从接近于零的水平回升。</blockquote></p><p> The “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.</p><p><blockquote>“点阵图”--或联邦公开市场委员会成员一致猜测的图表--将首次加息一直推迟到 2023 年之后。这似乎是一个非常长期的预测，正如约翰-梅纳德-凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）的名言，从长远来看，我们都死了。摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）首席美国经济学家迈克尔-费罗利（Michael Feroli）等一些美联储观察家认为，美联储将在2023年有所回升。</blockquote></p><p> The markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for Natixis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经预计到 2023 年联邦基金将加息一次或多次。但在之前讨论的长期债券收益率下滑的同时，利率期货市场实际上已经将其中一次短期加息定价。此外，据 Natixis 分析师称，衍生品市场目前联邦基金利率峰值低于 2%，比今年早些时候的定价低约 0.4 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Long before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.</p><p><blockquote>早在加息之前，美联储就会开始通过放缓目前的证券购买步伐来减少宽松，其中包括每月 800 亿美元的国债和 400 亿美元的机构抵押贷款支持证券。根据美联储上周发布的新数据，美联储和其他央行创造的数万亿美元对第一季度资产价值的提升大有帮助，资产价值增加了5万亿美元，达到136.9万亿美元。其中包括家庭持有的股票价值增加 3.2 万亿美元，家庭持有的房地产增加 9,680 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.</p><p><blockquote>美联储减少宽松政策的关键标准是货币当局是否认为在实现他们认为的最大就业方面取得了 “实质性的进一步进展”，这可能是一个故意模糊的标准。</blockquote></p><p> But the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed a record 9.3 million unfilled openings in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.</p><p><blockquote>但就业人数的增长似乎既受到劳动力供应的制约，也受到企业招聘意愿的制约。最新的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（Jolts）显示，4月份有创纪录的930万个职位空缺。此外，当月有384,000人离职，使自愿离职的总人数达到创纪录的400万。</blockquote></p><p> Anecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.</p><p><blockquote>一些轶事证据，包括美联储为即将召开的会议准备的褐皮书《经济状况摘要》中的一些轶事证据，表明由于丰厚的失业救济金，雇主找不到足够的工人。对于经济学等社会科学来说，这是不寻常的，随着 25 个州提前结束每周额外 300 美元的付款，将会有一个实时实验来检验这一假设。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons在一份研究报告中写道，这25个州约占所有失业工人的四分之一。他们估计，结束额外的失业救济金可能会在未来几个月内增加大约200万人的就业机会。在其余州的额外失业保险到期后，9月和10月应该会出现另一次增长激增；学校重新开放——为一些未来的工人，尤其是妇女提供免费日托；他们补充说，许多上班族回到了办公桌前。</blockquote></p><p> At that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.</p><p><blockquote>到那时，美联储可能会开始讨论实际减少其大规模证券购买。鉴于美联储在 2013 年放缓债券购买速度时市场掀起了 “缩减债券狂潮”，本届美联储将希望披露其计划如何、何时以及以多快的速度放缓向潘趣酒碗中注入债券。这就是我们本周将收听的内容。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138219989","content_text":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.\nWe all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).\nWe’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted on the Fed’s website at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.\nThe “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.\nThe markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for Natixis.\nLong before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.\nThe key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.\nBut the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed a record 9.3 million unfilled openings in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.\nAnecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.\nJefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.\nAt that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187387322,"gmtCreate":1623741618466,"gmtModify":1634029276906,"author":{"id":"3570418864419786","authorId":"3570418864419786","name":"jowell","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570418864419786","authorIdStr":"3570418864419786"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice!!","listText":"nice!!","text":"nice!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187387322","repostId":"2143178756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":187360618,"gmtCreate":1623741703134,"gmtModify":1634029275627,"author":{"id":"3570418864419786","authorId":"3570418864419786","name":"jowell","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570418864419786","idStr":"3570418864419786"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"sweet","listText":"sweet","text":"sweet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187360618","repostId":"1136326531","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136326531","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623738355,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1136326531?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 14:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136326531","media":"Associated Press","summary":"WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised ","content":"<p>WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿（美联社）——随着快速反弹的经济中通胀上升，美联储本周准备讨论何时采取第一步措施减少超低利率政策。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.</p><p><blockquote>这将是一场令人担忧的讨论，可能会在几个月内进行。然而，不断升级的通胀迫使消费者和企业支付更多费用，这加大了美联储的压力，要求其确保物价上涨不会在消费者的前景中根深蒂固。如果美国人开始预期价格上涨，他们可能会采取行动——比如在价格进一步上涨之前加快购买速度——这可能会导致通胀更高。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.</p><p><blockquote>美联储面临着一个两难的境地： 一方面，通胀上升速度比今年早些时候预测的要快得多，尽管美联储将价格压力定性为 “暂时性”，是供应短缺和快速复苏的结果。另一方面，招聘速度低于美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在 4 月底美联储最近一次会议后的新闻发布会上提到的基准。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔当时表示，他希望看到 “一连串 ”招聘报告，显示每月新增约 100 万个工作岗位。尽管雇主发布的职位空缺数量创历史新高，但今年就业市场从未达到过这一总数。</blockquote></p><p> With the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济形势仍被经济衰退后重新开放的混乱所笼罩，预计周三美联储最新一次政策会议结束，鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会，不会做出重大决定。美联储将把关键短期利率维持在接近于零的水平，并继续每月购买1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款债券。这些购买旨在保持长期利率较低，以鼓励借贷和支出。</blockquote></p><p> But the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>但美联储的政策制定委员会似乎可能会开始讨论逐步减少债券购买的时机和机制。向公众传达这一决定将是一项敏感的任务。如果美联储表示将比市场预期更早缩减购买量，那么2013年的“缩减购买量狂潮”就有可能重演。</blockquote></p><p> That occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.</p><p><blockquote>当时的美联储主席本-伯南克（Ben Bernanke）暗示美联储可能会在 “接下来的几次会议 ”缩减债券购买规模，这震惊了金融市场--比交易员预期的要早。伯南克的言论导致长期债券收益率飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Having learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.</p><p><blockquote>从那次事件中吸取教训后，鲍威尔很可能会在美联储2017年决定缓慢减少大衰退后积累的债券持有量后采取任何缩减规模的行动。该计划的第一个暗示出现在最终决定做出前六个月。经济学家预计现在也会有类似的时间表，这表明年底前不会出现任何缩减规模的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>上周，政府报告称，与去年同期相比，5 月份通胀率跃升至 5%，这是自 2008 年以来 12 个月以来最大的涨幅。这一增长的部分原因是二手车价格大幅上涨，由于半导体短缺导致汽车生产放缓，二手车价格飙升。汽车租赁公司不得不购买二手车来重建车队，其中大部分在疫情期间被出售。</blockquote></p><p> Other inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.</p><p><blockquote>其他通胀驱动因素还包括机票、汽车租赁和酒店客房等服务，这些服务的价格在 COVID-19 爆发之初就暴跌，现在正在恢复到大流行前的水平。随着越来越多的人重返工作岗位，美国经济的重新开放也迫使服装价格上涨。这种价格上涨可能不会持续。</blockquote></p><p> “I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p><blockquote>“投资公司麦凯-希尔兹（Mackay Shields）经济学家、纽约联邦储备银行前高级职员史蒂夫-弗里德曼（Steve Friedman）说：”我认为他们仍然强烈地认为，我们所看到的只是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Another key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是通货膨胀是否持续足够长的时间来影响公众的行为。如果美国人开始预期物价上涨，这些预期可能会变得自我实现。</blockquote></p><p> So far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，债券收益率和消费者调查表明，虽然短期内预计通胀会上升，但投资者和大多数公众预计从长远来看，价格只会温和上涨。鲍威尔长期以来一直认为，公众对未来通胀的看法只会缓慢演变。</blockquote></p><p> “The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>“美联储董事会六位理事之一的莱尔-布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）本月早些时候表示：”某些类别商品和服务的临时大幅上涨似乎不太可能对长期通胀行为产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.</p><p><blockquote>因此，政策制定者本周可能会开始讨论缩减债券购买规模。但在做出决定之前，可能还需要几个月的时间。</blockquote></p><p> “We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.</p><p><blockquote>“纽约联邦储备委员会主席约翰-威廉姆斯（John Williams）本月早些时候在接受雅虎财经采访时说：”我们必须提前思考，提前规划，因此我认为我们考虑未来可能有的各种选择是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> At the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，被视为与鲍威尔关系密切的威廉姆斯表示，“在我看来，我们距离取得我们真正寻求的实质性进一步进展 ”还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是，美联储官员从未明确在实现充分就业和通胀率达到或略高于 2% 的双重目标方面取得 “实质性进一步进展 ”会是什么样子。</blockquote></p><p> That’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>弗里德曼说，这是政策制定者需要讨论的一个问题，以及一旦开始缩减债券购买规模，他们将以多快的速度减少债券购买规模。另一个是他们是否应该以同样的速度减少国债和抵押贷款债券的购买。一些经济学家赞成大幅减少抵押贷款债券的购买，他们认为，这现在给房地产市场带来了不必要的提振。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储还将更新季度经济和利率预测。许多经济学家预计官员们将发出信号，表示他们预计将在 2023 年底开始提高基准利率。这将标志着一个转变： 政策制定者此前在 3 月份的预测显示，2023 年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员也可能大幅上调今年的通胀预测，但未来两年只会小幅上调，以表明他们预计物价涨幅将放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603278176698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDelicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Associated Press</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 14:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿（美联社）——随着快速反弹的经济中通胀上升，美联储本周准备讨论何时采取第一步措施减少超低利率政策。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.</p><p><blockquote>这将是一场令人担忧的讨论，可能会在几个月内进行。然而，不断升级的通胀迫使消费者和企业支付更多费用，这加大了美联储的压力，要求其确保物价上涨不会在消费者的前景中根深蒂固。如果美国人开始预期价格上涨，他们可能会采取行动——比如在价格进一步上涨之前加快购买速度——这可能会导致通胀更高。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.</p><p><blockquote>美联储面临着一个两难的境地： 一方面，通胀上升速度比今年早些时候预测的要快得多，尽管美联储将价格压力定性为 “暂时性”，是供应短缺和快速复苏的结果。另一方面，招聘速度低于美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在 4 月底美联储最近一次会议后的新闻发布会上提到的基准。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔当时表示，他希望看到 “一连串 ”招聘报告，显示每月新增约 100 万个工作岗位。尽管雇主发布的职位空缺数量创历史新高，但今年就业市场从未达到过这一总数。</blockquote></p><p> With the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济形势仍被经济衰退后重新开放的混乱所笼罩，预计周三美联储最新一次政策会议结束，鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会，不会做出重大决定。美联储将把关键短期利率维持在接近于零的水平，并继续每月购买1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款债券。这些购买旨在保持长期利率较低，以鼓励借贷和支出。</blockquote></p><p> But the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>但美联储的政策制定委员会似乎可能会开始讨论逐步减少债券购买的时机和机制。向公众传达这一决定将是一项敏感的任务。如果美联储表示将比市场预期更早缩减购买量，那么2013年的“缩减购买量狂潮”就有可能重演。</blockquote></p><p> That occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.</p><p><blockquote>当时的美联储主席本-伯南克（Ben Bernanke）暗示美联储可能会在 “接下来的几次会议 ”缩减债券购买规模，这震惊了金融市场--比交易员预期的要早。伯南克的言论导致长期债券收益率飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Having learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.</p><p><blockquote>从那次事件中吸取教训后，鲍威尔很可能会在美联储2017年决定缓慢减少大衰退后积累的债券持有量后采取任何缩减规模的行动。该计划的第一个暗示出现在最终决定做出前六个月。经济学家预计现在也会有类似的时间表，这表明年底前不会出现任何缩减规模的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>上周，政府报告称，与去年同期相比，5 月份通胀率跃升至 5%，这是自 2008 年以来 12 个月以来最大的涨幅。这一增长的部分原因是二手车价格大幅上涨，由于半导体短缺导致汽车生产放缓，二手车价格飙升。汽车租赁公司不得不购买二手车来重建车队，其中大部分在疫情期间被出售。</blockquote></p><p> Other inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.</p><p><blockquote>其他通胀驱动因素还包括机票、汽车租赁和酒店客房等服务，这些服务的价格在 COVID-19 爆发之初就暴跌，现在正在恢复到大流行前的水平。随着越来越多的人重返工作岗位，美国经济的重新开放也迫使服装价格上涨。这种价格上涨可能不会持续。</blockquote></p><p> “I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p><blockquote>“投资公司麦凯-希尔兹（Mackay Shields）经济学家、纽约联邦储备银行前高级职员史蒂夫-弗里德曼（Steve Friedman）说：”我认为他们仍然强烈地认为，我们所看到的只是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Another key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是通货膨胀是否持续足够长的时间来影响公众的行为。如果美国人开始预期物价上涨，这些预期可能会变得自我实现。</blockquote></p><p> So far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，债券收益率和消费者调查表明，虽然短期内预计通胀会上升，但投资者和大多数公众预计从长远来看，价格只会温和上涨。鲍威尔长期以来一直认为，公众对未来通胀的看法只会缓慢演变。</blockquote></p><p> “The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>“美联储董事会六位理事之一的莱尔-布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）本月早些时候表示：”某些类别商品和服务的临时大幅上涨似乎不太可能对长期通胀行为产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.</p><p><blockquote>因此，政策制定者本周可能会开始讨论缩减债券购买规模。但在做出决定之前，可能还需要几个月的时间。</blockquote></p><p> “We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.</p><p><blockquote>“纽约联邦储备委员会主席约翰-威廉姆斯（John Williams）本月早些时候在接受雅虎财经采访时说：”我们必须提前思考，提前规划，因此我认为我们考虑未来可能有的各种选择是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> At the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，被视为与鲍威尔关系密切的威廉姆斯表示，“在我看来，我们距离取得我们真正寻求的实质性进一步进展 ”还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是，美联储官员从未明确在实现充分就业和通胀率达到或略高于 2% 的双重目标方面取得 “实质性进一步进展 ”会是什么样子。</blockquote></p><p> That’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>弗里德曼说，这是政策制定者需要讨论的一个问题，以及一旦开始缩减债券购买规模，他们将以多快的速度减少债券购买规模。另一个是他们是否应该以同样的速度减少国债和抵押贷款债券的购买。一些经济学家赞成大幅减少抵押贷款债券的购买，他们认为，这现在给房地产市场带来了不必要的提振。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储还将更新季度经济和利率预测。许多经济学家预计官员们将发出信号，表示他们预计将在 2023 年底开始提高基准利率。这将标志着一个转变： 政策制定者此前在 3 月份的预测显示，2023 年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员也可能大幅上调今年的通胀预测，但未来两年只会小幅上调，以表明他们预计物价涨幅将放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-business-c96d2b9c8a6a4e6320340dbc8bab449c\">Associated Press</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-business-c96d2b9c8a6a4e6320340dbc8bab449c","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136326531","content_text":"WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.\nIt will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.\nThe Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.\nPowell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.\nWith the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.\nBut the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.\nThat occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.\nHaving learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.\nLast week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.\nOther inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.\n“I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.\nAnother key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.\nSo far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.\n“The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.\nAs a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.\n“We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.\nAt the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.\nAnother challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.\nThat’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.\nFed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187387322,"gmtCreate":1623741618466,"gmtModify":1634029276906,"author":{"id":"3570418864419786","authorId":"3570418864419786","name":"jowell","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570418864419786","idStr":"3570418864419786"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice!!","listText":"nice!!","text":"nice!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187387322","repostId":"2143178756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187387498,"gmtCreate":1623741670314,"gmtModify":1634029276295,"author":{"id":"3570418864419786","authorId":"3570418864419786","name":"jowell","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570418864419786","idStr":"3570418864419786"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"sick","listText":"sick","text":"sick","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187387498","repostId":"2143973689","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187387644,"gmtCreate":1623741654988,"gmtModify":1634029276660,"author":{"id":"3570418864419786","authorId":"3570418864419786","name":"jowell","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570418864419786","idStr":"3570418864419786"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"sweet!","listText":"sweet!","text":"sweet!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187387644","repostId":"1138219989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138219989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623650085,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138219989?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议值得期待</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138219989","media":"Barrons","summary":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again a","content":"<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>随着联邦公开市场委员会下周召开定期政策会议，分析师和投资者应该再次颠覆尼克松时代的陈词滥调，关注他们所说的，而不是他们所做的。每个人都想知道的是，该小组是否最终开始谈论放弃其超级宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> We all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).</p><p><blockquote>我们都知道，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）不会在其大规模证券购买方面采取任何实质性措施，而这些证券购买仍在以每月1200亿美元的速度进行。至于其主要的联邦基金利率目标，则停留在 0% 至 0.25%（尽管美联储管理的其他一些利率有可能进行技术性调整，以解决货币市场上数十亿美元的过剩现金问题）。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted on the Fed’s website at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.</p><p><blockquote>我们将关注联邦公开市场委员会的正式政策声明和该小组最新的经济预测摘要，其中将包括委员会成员对国内生产总值、通货膨胀和失业率等关键经济指标的猜测。最有可能的是，当美联储网站于美国东部时间周三下午 2 点发布这一消息时，大多数人可能会直奔联邦公开市场委员会对联邦基金利率的猜测，特别是何时最终有望从接近于零的水平回升。</blockquote></p><p> The “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.</p><p><blockquote>“点阵图”--或联邦公开市场委员会成员一致猜测的图表--将首次加息一直推迟到 2023 年之后。这似乎是一个非常长期的预测，正如约翰-梅纳德-凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）的名言，从长远来看，我们都死了。摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）首席美国经济学家迈克尔-费罗利（Michael Feroli）等一些美联储观察家认为，美联储将在2023年有所回升。</blockquote></p><p> The markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for Natixis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经预计到 2023 年联邦基金将加息一次或多次。但在之前讨论的长期债券收益率下滑的同时，利率期货市场实际上已经将其中一次短期加息定价。此外，据 Natixis 分析师称，衍生品市场目前联邦基金利率峰值低于 2%，比今年早些时候的定价低约 0.4 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Long before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.</p><p><blockquote>早在加息之前，美联储就会开始通过放缓目前的证券购买步伐来减少宽松，其中包括每月 800 亿美元的国债和 400 亿美元的机构抵押贷款支持证券。根据美联储上周发布的新数据，美联储和其他央行创造的数万亿美元对第一季度资产价值的提升大有帮助，资产价值增加了5万亿美元，达到136.9万亿美元。其中包括家庭持有的股票价值增加 3.2 万亿美元，家庭持有的房地产增加 9,680 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.</p><p><blockquote>美联储减少宽松政策的关键标准是货币当局是否认为在实现他们认为的最大就业方面取得了 “实质性的进一步进展”，这可能是一个故意模糊的标准。</blockquote></p><p> But the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed a record 9.3 million unfilled openings in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.</p><p><blockquote>但就业人数的增长似乎既受到劳动力供应的制约，也受到企业招聘意愿的制约。最新的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（Jolts）显示，4月份有创纪录的930万个职位空缺。此外，当月有384,000人离职，使自愿离职的总人数达到创纪录的400万。</blockquote></p><p> Anecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.</p><p><blockquote>一些轶事证据，包括美联储为即将召开的会议准备的褐皮书《经济状况摘要》中的一些轶事证据，表明由于丰厚的失业救济金，雇主找不到足够的工人。对于经济学等社会科学来说，这是不寻常的，随着 25 个州提前结束每周额外 300 美元的付款，将会有一个实时实验来检验这一假设。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons在一份研究报告中写道，这25个州约占所有失业工人的四分之一。他们估计，结束额外的失业救济金可能会在未来几个月内增加大约200万人的就业机会。在其余州的额外失业保险到期后，9月和10月应该会出现另一次增长激增；学校重新开放——为一些未来的工人，尤其是妇女提供免费日托；他们补充说，许多上班族回到了办公桌前。</blockquote></p><p> At that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.</p><p><blockquote>到那时，美联储可能会开始讨论实际减少其大规模证券购买。鉴于美联储在 2013 年放缓债券购买速度时市场掀起了 “缩减债券狂潮”，本届美联储将希望披露其计划如何、何时以及以多快的速度放缓向潘趣酒碗中注入债券。这就是我们本周将收听的内容。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议值得期待</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议值得期待</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 13:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>随着联邦公开市场委员会下周召开定期政策会议，分析师和投资者应该再次颠覆尼克松时代的陈词滥调，关注他们所说的，而不是他们所做的。每个人都想知道的是，该小组是否最终开始谈论放弃其超级宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> We all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).</p><p><blockquote>我们都知道，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）不会在其大规模证券购买方面采取任何实质性措施，而这些证券购买仍在以每月1200亿美元的速度进行。至于其主要的联邦基金利率目标，则停留在 0% 至 0.25%（尽管美联储管理的其他一些利率有可能进行技术性调整，以解决货币市场上数十亿美元的过剩现金问题）。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted on the Fed’s website at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.</p><p><blockquote>我们将关注联邦公开市场委员会的正式政策声明和该小组最新的经济预测摘要，其中将包括委员会成员对国内生产总值、通货膨胀和失业率等关键经济指标的猜测。最有可能的是，当美联储网站于美国东部时间周三下午 2 点发布这一消息时，大多数人可能会直奔联邦公开市场委员会对联邦基金利率的猜测，特别是何时最终有望从接近于零的水平回升。</blockquote></p><p> The “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.</p><p><blockquote>“点阵图”--或联邦公开市场委员会成员一致猜测的图表--将首次加息一直推迟到 2023 年之后。这似乎是一个非常长期的预测，正如约翰-梅纳德-凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）的名言，从长远来看，我们都死了。摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）首席美国经济学家迈克尔-费罗利（Michael Feroli）等一些美联储观察家认为，美联储将在2023年有所回升。</blockquote></p><p> The markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for Natixis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经预计到 2023 年联邦基金将加息一次或多次。但在之前讨论的长期债券收益率下滑的同时，利率期货市场实际上已经将其中一次短期加息定价。此外，据 Natixis 分析师称，衍生品市场目前联邦基金利率峰值低于 2%，比今年早些时候的定价低约 0.4 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Long before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.</p><p><blockquote>早在加息之前，美联储就会开始通过放缓目前的证券购买步伐来减少宽松，其中包括每月 800 亿美元的国债和 400 亿美元的机构抵押贷款支持证券。根据美联储上周发布的新数据，美联储和其他央行创造的数万亿美元对第一季度资产价值的提升大有帮助，资产价值增加了5万亿美元，达到136.9万亿美元。其中包括家庭持有的股票价值增加 3.2 万亿美元，家庭持有的房地产增加 9,680 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.</p><p><blockquote>美联储减少宽松政策的关键标准是货币当局是否认为在实现他们认为的最大就业方面取得了 “实质性的进一步进展”，这可能是一个故意模糊的标准。</blockquote></p><p> But the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed a record 9.3 million unfilled openings in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.</p><p><blockquote>但就业人数的增长似乎既受到劳动力供应的制约，也受到企业招聘意愿的制约。最新的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（Jolts）显示，4月份有创纪录的930万个职位空缺。此外，当月有384,000人离职，使自愿离职的总人数达到创纪录的400万。</blockquote></p><p> Anecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.</p><p><blockquote>一些轶事证据，包括美联储为即将召开的会议准备的褐皮书《经济状况摘要》中的一些轶事证据，表明由于丰厚的失业救济金，雇主找不到足够的工人。对于经济学等社会科学来说，这是不寻常的，随着 25 个州提前结束每周额外 300 美元的付款，将会有一个实时实验来检验这一假设。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons在一份研究报告中写道，这25个州约占所有失业工人的四分之一。他们估计，结束额外的失业救济金可能会在未来几个月内增加大约200万人的就业机会。在其余州的额外失业保险到期后，9月和10月应该会出现另一次增长激增；学校重新开放——为一些未来的工人，尤其是妇女提供免费日托；他们补充说，许多上班族回到了办公桌前。</blockquote></p><p> At that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.</p><p><blockquote>到那时，美联储可能会开始讨论实际减少其大规模证券购买。鉴于美联储在 2013 年放缓债券购买速度时市场掀起了 “缩减债券狂潮”，本届美联储将希望披露其计划如何、何时以及以多快的速度放缓向潘趣酒碗中注入债券。这就是我们本周将收听的内容。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138219989","content_text":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.\nWe all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).\nWe’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted on the Fed’s website at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.\nThe “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.\nThe markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for Natixis.\nLong before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.\nThe key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.\nBut the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed a record 9.3 million unfilled openings in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.\nAnecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.\nJefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.\nAt that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187360588,"gmtCreate":1623741718344,"gmtModify":1634029275504,"author":{"id":"3570418864419786","authorId":"3570418864419786","name":"jowell","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570418864419786","idStr":"3570418864419786"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"!!!","listText":"!!!","text":"!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187360588","repostId":"1167323938","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
