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2021-06-22

Alritr

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2021-06-22

???

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2021-06-22

Okayy

Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In "Heat-Seeking Missiles": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>

2021-06-20

Ooh

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2021-06-21

Hmmmmm

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2021-06-21

I see

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2021-06-21

Ahh

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2021-06-22

Hmmm

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2021-06-22

Mmm

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2021-06-20

Ahhh

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16:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场综述：什么情况？元宇宙沾边就涨，龙头股4天翻倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185807512","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"要闻\n报告：2021年中国游戏市场实际销售收入同比增长6.4%\n中国音数协游戏工委等发布《2021年中国游戏产业报告》显示，2021年，中国游戏市场实际销售收入2965.13亿元，比2020年增加了1","content":"<p><b>要闻</b></p>\n<p><b>报告：2021年中国游戏市场实际销售收入同比增长6.4%</b></p>\n<p>中国音数协游戏工委等发布《2021年中国游戏产业报告》显示，2021年，中国游戏市场实际销售收入2965.13亿元，比2020年增加了178.26亿元，同比增长6.4%。虽然实际销售收入依然保持增长态势，但是增幅比例较去年同比缩减近15%。</p>\n<p><b>发改委：11月份全社会用电量同比增长3.1%</b></p>\n<p>国家发展改革委新闻发言人表示，1—11月份全国全社会用电量同比增长11.4%。其中，一产、二产、三产和居民生活用电量同比分别增长18.1%、10.2%、19%和7.5%。分地区看，全国19个省（区、市）用电增速超过12%，其中西藏、湖北、江西、青海、四川、浙江、福建7个省（区）增速超过15%。11月份，全社会用电量同比增长3.1%(前值6.1%)。</p>\n<p><b>港股</b></p>\n<p>港股午后回升，三大指数尾盘皆由跌转涨。恒指涨0.23%，国指涨0.08%，恒生科技指数涨0.46%，盘中曾大跌近2%创新低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f710bc60948a900fdca7beac9fd1850\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>盘面上，煤价企稳回升，煤炭板块全天强势领涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01171\">兖州煤业</a>飙涨超24%领衔走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01898\">中煤能源</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>等皆上涨；昨日大跌的生物技术股集体反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">药明生物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002821\">凯莱英</a>皆升超10%，电力股、港口航运股持续活跃，教育股、餐饮股、钢铁股普涨，物管股与内房股亦拉升反弹。另一方面，半导体股表现最弱，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>皆下跌，烟草概念股、内银股、手游股普跌。大型科技股涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>涨近2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>跌3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>跌1.4%。</p>\n<p><b>A股</b></p>\n<p>两市主要指数上涨，沪指早盘红盘震荡，午后持续走高，全天收涨0.75%报3675点，深成指涨0.58%报15112点，创业板指涨0.74%报3490点。两市2977股上涨，1443股下跌，成交额连续40个交易日在万亿上方，北上资金净买入58.85亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409c1305a6844ea952eeaa7cb2dc3628\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>周期板块表现突出，煤炭股全线大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601898\">中煤能源</a>等多股涨停；钢铁板块全天强势，宝钢涨超6%；油气、环保、建筑、传媒娱乐等板块大涨靠前，氢能源概念午后大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000723\">美锦能源</a>等股涨停。白酒板块领跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">山西汾酒</a>跌6.5%。元宇宙概念现涨停潮，龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300612\">宣亚国际</a>20%涨停，这是其连续第4个涨停，短短的4日暴涨超一倍；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300045\">华力创通</a>亦20%涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300578\">会畅通讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300624\">万兴科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600640\">新国脉</a>等10股涨停或涨超10%。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07210fef01256b9990d896d8a79bd6b0\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>元宇宙概念股</span></p>\n<p><b>美股</b></p>\n<p>美股股指期货小幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.36%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.68%；标普500指数期货涨0.48%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f07a1c34f3c058243769c1190230592b\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>欧股</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要指数集体大幅高开，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.59%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨1.18%，法国CAC40指数涨1.62%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.86%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36516b20672777eb4226ec3575e041a\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货延续涨势，截止发稿，WTI原油报71.64美元/桶，涨1.09%；布油现报74.58美元/桶，涨0.95%。</p>\n<p>因美国库存数据显示消费者需求强劲；但因变异毒株加速传染以及美联储加息预期，油价存下行风险；警惕变异毒株传染在某些国家和地区加速爆发。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd9bf6740112cba724f7d996b177000\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5bc6d6af3630365c39619dce47a99a\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货继续走高，现涨1.25%，报1786.6美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>尽管美指止跌企稳，投资者将注意力从美联储转移到其他关键的央行会议上。英国央行和欧洲央行将在日内晚些时候公布新政。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e811cafc24779962d2c4b160f6508357\" 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场综述：什么情况？元宇宙沾边就涨，龙头股4天翻倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-16 16:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>要闻</b></p>\n<p><b>报告：2021年中国游戏市场实际销售收入同比增长6.4%</b></p>\n<p>中国音数协游戏工委等发布《2021年中国游戏产业报告》显示，2021年，中国游戏市场实际销售收入2965.13亿元，比2020年增加了178.26亿元，同比增长6.4%。虽然实际销售收入依然保持增长态势，但是增幅比例较去年同比缩减近15%。</p>\n<p><b>发改委：11月份全社会用电量同比增长3.1%</b></p>\n<p>国家发展改革委新闻发言人表示，1—11月份全国全社会用电量同比增长11.4%。其中，一产、二产、三产和居民生活用电量同比分别增长18.1%、10.2%、19%和7.5%。分地区看，全国19个省（区、市）用电增速超过12%，其中西藏、湖北、江西、青海、四川、浙江、福建7个省（区）增速超过15%。11月份，全社会用电量同比增长3.1%(前值6.1%)。</p>\n<p><b>港股</b></p>\n<p>港股午后回升，三大指数尾盘皆由跌转涨。恒指涨0.23%，国指涨0.08%，恒生科技指数涨0.46%，盘中曾大跌近2%创新低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f710bc60948a900fdca7beac9fd1850\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>盘面上，煤价企稳回升，煤炭板块全天强势领涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01171\">兖州煤业</a>飙涨超24%领衔走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01898\">中煤能源</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>等皆上涨；昨日大跌的生物技术股集体反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">药明生物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002821\">凯莱英</a>皆升超10%，电力股、港口航运股持续活跃，教育股、餐饮股、钢铁股普涨，物管股与内房股亦拉升反弹。另一方面，半导体股表现最弱，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>皆下跌，烟草概念股、内银股、手游股普跌。大型科技股涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>涨近2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>跌3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>跌1.4%。</p>\n<p><b>A股</b></p>\n<p>两市主要指数上涨，沪指早盘红盘震荡，午后持续走高，全天收涨0.75%报3675点，深成指涨0.58%报15112点，创业板指涨0.74%报3490点。两市2977股上涨，1443股下跌，成交额连续40个交易日在万亿上方，北上资金净买入58.85亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409c1305a6844ea952eeaa7cb2dc3628\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>周期板块表现突出，煤炭股全线大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601898\">中煤能源</a>等多股涨停；钢铁板块全天强势，宝钢涨超6%；油气、环保、建筑、传媒娱乐等板块大涨靠前，氢能源概念午后大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000723\">美锦能源</a>等股涨停。白酒板块领跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">山西汾酒</a>跌6.5%。元宇宙概念现涨停潮，龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300612\">宣亚国际</a>20%涨停，这是其连续第4个涨停，短短的4日暴涨超一倍；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300045\">华力创通</a>亦20%涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300578\">会畅通讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300624\">万兴科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600640\">新国脉</a>等10股涨停或涨超10%。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07210fef01256b9990d896d8a79bd6b0\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>元宇宙概念股</span></p>\n<p><b>美股</b></p>\n<p>美股股指期货小幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.36%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.68%；标普500指数期货涨0.48%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f07a1c34f3c058243769c1190230592b\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>欧股</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要指数集体大幅高开，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.59%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨1.18%，法国CAC40指数涨1.62%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.86%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36516b20672777eb4226ec3575e041a\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货延续涨势，截止发稿，WTI原油报71.64美元/桶，涨1.09%；布油现报74.58美元/桶，涨0.95%。</p>\n<p>因美国库存数据显示消费者需求强劲；但因变异毒株加速传染以及美联储加息预期，油价存下行风险；警惕变异毒株传染在某些国家和地区加速爆发。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd9bf6740112cba724f7d996b177000\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5bc6d6af3630365c39619dce47a99a\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货继续走高，现涨1.25%，报1786.6美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>尽管美指止跌企稳，投资者将注意力从美联储转移到其他关键的央行会议上。英国央行和欧洲央行将在日内晚些时候公布新政。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e811cafc24779962d2c4b160f6508357\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数","00981":"中芯国际","HSCEI":"国企指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","000001.SH":"上证指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185807512","content_text":"要闻\n报告：2021年中国游戏市场实际销售收入同比增长6.4%\n中国音数协游戏工委等发布《2021年中国游戏产业报告》显示，2021年，中国游戏市场实际销售收入2965.13亿元，比2020年增加了178.26亿元，同比增长6.4%。虽然实际销售收入依然保持增长态势，但是增幅比例较去年同比缩减近15%。\n发改委：11月份全社会用电量同比增长3.1%\n国家发展改革委新闻发言人表示，1—11月份全国全社会用电量同比增长11.4%。其中，一产、二产、三产和居民生活用电量同比分别增长18.1%、10.2%、19%和7.5%。分地区看，全国19个省（区、市）用电增速超过12%，其中西藏、湖北、江西、青海、四川、浙江、福建7个省（区）增速超过15%。11月份，全社会用电量同比增长3.1%(前值6.1%)。\n港股\n港股午后回升，三大指数尾盘皆由跌转涨。恒指涨0.23%，国指涨0.08%，恒生科技指数涨0.46%，盘中曾大跌近2%创新低。\n\n盘面上，煤价企稳回升，煤炭板块全天强势领涨，兖州煤业飙涨超24%领衔走高，中煤能源涨超12%，中国神华等皆上涨；昨日大跌的生物技术股集体反弹，药明生物、凯莱英皆升超10%，电力股、港口航运股持续活跃，教育股、餐饮股、钢铁股普涨，物管股与内房股亦拉升反弹。另一方面，半导体股表现最弱，华虹半导体、中芯国际皆下跌，烟草概念股、内银股、手游股普跌。大型科技股涨跌不一，快手-W涨超3%，百度集团-SW涨近2%，京东集团-SW跌3%，美团-W跌1.4%。\nA股\n两市主要指数上涨，沪指早盘红盘震荡，午后持续走高，全天收涨0.75%报3675点，深成指涨0.58%报15112点，创业板指涨0.74%报3490点。两市2977股上涨，1443股下跌，成交额连续40个交易日在万亿上方，北上资金净买入58.85亿。\n\n周期板块表现突出，煤炭股全线大涨，中煤能源等多股涨停；钢铁板块全天强势，宝钢涨超6%；油气、环保、建筑、传媒娱乐等板块大涨靠前，氢能源概念午后大涨，美锦能源等股涨停。白酒板块领跌，山西汾酒跌6.5%。元宇宙概念现涨停潮，龙头宣亚国际20%涨停，这是其连续第4个涨停，短短的4日暴涨超一倍；华力创通亦20%涨停，会畅通讯、万兴科技、新国脉等10股涨停或涨超10%。\n元宇宙概念股\n美股\n美股股指期货小幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.36%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.68%；标普500指数期货涨0.48%。\n\n欧股\n欧洲主要指数集体大幅高开，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.59%，英国富时100指数涨1.18%，法国CAC40指数涨1.62%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.86%。\n\n原油\n原油期货延续涨势，截止发稿，WTI原油报71.64美元/桶，涨1.09%；布油现报74.58美元/桶，涨0.95%。\n因美国库存数据显示消费者需求强劲；但因变异毒株加速传染以及美联储加息预期，油价存下行风险；警惕变异毒株传染在某些国家和地区加速爆发。\n\n黄金\n黄金期货继续走高，现涨1.25%，报1786.6美元/盎司。\n尽管美指止跌企稳，投资者将注意力从美联储转移到其他关键的央行会议上。英国央行和欧洲央行将在日内晚些时候公布新政。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"00981":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":121239166,"gmtCreate":1624464631055,"gmtModify":1634005698698,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121239166","repostId":"2145531099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129099165,"gmtCreate":1624341500857,"gmtModify":1634007505096,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nicee","listText":"Nicee","text":"Nicee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129099165","repostId":"1175304129","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175304129","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624329424,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175304129?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Bull Market Depends on These 2 Must-Watch Stocks This Week<blockquote>牛市就看这2只本周必看股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175304129","media":"fool","summary":"The stock market has done exceptionally well in 2021, continuing to climb to all-time record highs a","content":"<p>The stock market has done exceptionally well in 2021, continuing to climb to all-time record highs amid strong hopes for a recovering economy. With the world starting to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, investors are excited about the prospects for things returning to how they were before the huge disruptions we've seen across the globe since early 2020. That excitement played out in major market benchmarks Monday morning, as the&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI)climbed more than 500 points to 33,800, the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)gained 47 points to 4,214, and the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)climbed 67 points to 14,098.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，股市表现异常出色，在经济复苏的强烈希望下，股市继续攀升至历史新高。随着世界开始摆脱新冠肺炎疫情，投资者对事情恢复到自2020年初以来我们在全球范围内看到的巨大破坏之前的前景感到兴奋。周一上午，这种兴奋情绪在主要市场基准中表现出来，因为<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>(DJINIndices：^DJI)攀升逾500点至33,800点，<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)上涨47点至4,214点，而<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）上涨67点至14,098点。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings season is always a good way to tell how individual companies are faring, but some businesses have more importance than others. Later this week, delivery specialist&nbsp;<b>FedEx</b>(NYSE:FDX)and athletic apparel giant&nbsp;<b>Nike</b>(NYSE:NKE)will give their latest readings on their corporate results. Both will have major implications not just for their own shareholders but for those following the broader economy as well.</p><p><blockquote>财报季始终是了解各个公司表现的好方法，但有些业务比其他业务更重要。本周晚些时候，送货专家<b>联邦快递</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：FDX）和运动服装巨头<b>耐克</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NKE）将公布其公司业绩的最新数据。两者不仅会对自己的股东产生重大影响，也会对那些关注更广泛经济的人产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> Delivering for investors?</p><p><blockquote>为投资者送货？</blockquote></p><p> FedEx is set to report its latest results on Thursday, June 24. Investors are expecting big things from the company, but a lot more will depend on what FedEx says about what the future will bring.</p><p><blockquote>联邦快递将于6月24日星期四公布最新业绩。投资者对该公司寄予厚望，但更多的将取决于联邦快递对未来的看法。</blockquote></p><p> Given the hit that FedEx took this time last year, it should come as little surprise that those following the delivery giant are looking for a major rebound. Consensus estimates among those tracking FedEx see earnings nearly doubling from year-ago levels, with revenue slated to rise at a healthy 24% pace.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于联邦快递去年这个时候遭受的打击，那些关注这家快递巨头的人正在寻求大幅反弹也就不足为奇了。追踪联邦快递的人士一致估计，其盈利将比去年同期水平几乎翻一番，收入预计将以24%的健康速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, in some ways,FedEx has too much of a good thing. Earlier this month, the company said it would cut service to some of its logistics customers who seek out less-than-truckload shipping services. The reason: Exceptionally strong demand was causing bottlenecks at key terminal locations that in turn were threatening to delay shipments. The issues aren't unique to FedEx, instead reflecting capacity constraints throughout the industry that are creating potential disruptions for customers seeking to get goods where they need to go.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，在某些方面，联邦快递有太多的好东西。本月早些时候，该公司表示将削减对一些寻求零担运输服务的物流客户的服务。原因是：异常强劲的需求导致关键码头地点出现瓶颈，进而威胁到发货延迟。这些问题并不是联邦快递独有的，而是反映了整个行业的产能限制，这些限制给寻求将货物送到需要去的地方的客户造成了潜在的干扰。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will want to pay particularly close attention to any guidance that FedEx gives for its fiscal 2022 year. After having seen so much e-commerce activity drive pandemic-related gains, a return to more typical business conditions could create a temporary pause in FedEx's growth. How much that appears in projections could in turn say a lot about whether the stock can return to its former upward trajectory.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将特别密切关注联邦快递为其2022财年提供的任何指导。在看到如此多的电子商务活动推动了与大流行相关的增长后，回归更典型的商业状况可能会导致联邦快递的增长暂时暂停。这一数字在预测中的出现程度反过来又可以在很大程度上说明该股是否能够回到以前的上升轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> Doing it</p><p><blockquote>正在做</blockquote></p><p> Nike is also slated to release its financial results on Thursday morning. Investors hope to see a significant reversal from last year's painful experience.</p><p><blockquote>耐克也定于周四上午发布财务业绩。投资者希望看到去年痛苦经历的重大逆转。</blockquote></p><p> Nike appears to be ready to get back on trackwith its quarterly results. Revenue is expected to soar more than 75% from year-ago levels, which reflected store closures and other disruptions related to the pandemic. Nike's earnings will likely reverse year-ago losses, although bottom-line performance is still in the process of recovering from more difficult conditions.</p><p><blockquote>耐克似乎已准备好通过季度业绩重回正轨。收入预计将比去年同期飙升75%以上，这反映了商店关闭和其他与大流行相关的干扰。耐克的盈利可能会扭转去年同期的亏损，尽管底线业绩仍在从更困难的条件中恢复。</blockquote></p><p> The big question is how a couple of key aspects of Nike's business will balance out. On one hand, demand is soaring both in Nike's home North American market and overseas in key places like China. That could help support revenue and profit gains into the coming fiscal year. At the same time, though, prices for materials have been on the rise, and that in turn could present challenges to profit margins.</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是耐克业务的几个关键方面将如何平衡。一方面，耐克的北美本土市场和中国等海外关键地区的需求都在飙升。这可能有助于支持下一财年的收入和利润增长。但与此同时，材料价格一直在上涨，这反过来可能会给利润率带来挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, Nike is looking to put its marketing machine to the test, with plenty of new product launches designed to stoke demand and give consumers a place to spend their savings. The success of those launches could well define the course of Nike's fiscal 2022, and that in turn could determine whether the stock can climb further after sizable gains over the past year or so.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，耐克正在寻求对其营销机器进行测试，推出大量新产品，旨在刺激需求并为消费者提供一个消费储蓄的地方。这些产品的成功很可能决定耐克2022财年的走势，进而决定该股在过去一年左右大幅上涨后能否进一步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> Be ready</p><p><blockquote>做好准备</blockquote></p><p> With so much uncertainty in the markets, key earnings reports can make or break the future direction for stocks. Market participants will watch releases from FedEx and Nike closely to find hints to where those two stocks -- and the entire market -- will move from here.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场存在如此多的不确定性，关键的收益报告可以决定股票的未来走向，也可以决定股票的未来走向。市场参与者将密切关注联邦快递和耐克的发布，以寻找这两只股票以及整个市场将走向何方的线索。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Bull Market Depends on These 2 Must-Watch Stocks This Week<blockquote>牛市就看这2只本周必看股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Bull Market Depends on These 2 Must-Watch Stocks This Week<blockquote>牛市就看这2只本周必看股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market has done exceptionally well in 2021, continuing to climb to all-time record highs amid strong hopes for a recovering economy. With the world starting to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, investors are excited about the prospects for things returning to how they were before the huge disruptions we've seen across the globe since early 2020. That excitement played out in major market benchmarks Monday morning, as the&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI)climbed more than 500 points to 33,800, the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)gained 47 points to 4,214, and the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)climbed 67 points to 14,098.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，股市表现异常出色，在经济复苏的强烈希望下，股市继续攀升至历史新高。随着世界开始摆脱新冠肺炎疫情，投资者对事情恢复到自2020年初以来我们在全球范围内看到的巨大破坏之前的前景感到兴奋。周一上午，这种兴奋情绪在主要市场基准中表现出来，因为<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>(DJINIndices：^DJI)攀升逾500点至33,800点，<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)上涨47点至4,214点，而<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）上涨67点至14,098点。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings season is always a good way to tell how individual companies are faring, but some businesses have more importance than others. Later this week, delivery specialist&nbsp;<b>FedEx</b>(NYSE:FDX)and athletic apparel giant&nbsp;<b>Nike</b>(NYSE:NKE)will give their latest readings on their corporate results. Both will have major implications not just for their own shareholders but for those following the broader economy as well.</p><p><blockquote>财报季始终是了解各个公司表现的好方法，但有些业务比其他业务更重要。本周晚些时候，送货专家<b>联邦快递</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：FDX）和运动服装巨头<b>耐克</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NKE）将公布其公司业绩的最新数据。两者不仅会对自己的股东产生重大影响，也会对那些关注更广泛经济的人产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> Delivering for investors?</p><p><blockquote>为投资者送货？</blockquote></p><p> FedEx is set to report its latest results on Thursday, June 24. Investors are expecting big things from the company, but a lot more will depend on what FedEx says about what the future will bring.</p><p><blockquote>联邦快递将于6月24日星期四公布最新业绩。投资者对该公司寄予厚望，但更多的将取决于联邦快递对未来的看法。</blockquote></p><p> Given the hit that FedEx took this time last year, it should come as little surprise that those following the delivery giant are looking for a major rebound. Consensus estimates among those tracking FedEx see earnings nearly doubling from year-ago levels, with revenue slated to rise at a healthy 24% pace.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于联邦快递去年这个时候遭受的打击，那些关注这家快递巨头的人正在寻求大幅反弹也就不足为奇了。追踪联邦快递的人士一致估计，其盈利将比去年同期水平几乎翻一番，收入预计将以24%的健康速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, in some ways,FedEx has too much of a good thing. Earlier this month, the company said it would cut service to some of its logistics customers who seek out less-than-truckload shipping services. The reason: Exceptionally strong demand was causing bottlenecks at key terminal locations that in turn were threatening to delay shipments. The issues aren't unique to FedEx, instead reflecting capacity constraints throughout the industry that are creating potential disruptions for customers seeking to get goods where they need to go.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，在某些方面，联邦快递有太多的好东西。本月早些时候，该公司表示将削减对一些寻求零担运输服务的物流客户的服务。原因是：异常强劲的需求导致关键码头地点出现瓶颈，进而威胁到发货延迟。这些问题并不是联邦快递独有的，而是反映了整个行业的产能限制，这些限制给寻求将货物送到需要去的地方的客户造成了潜在的干扰。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will want to pay particularly close attention to any guidance that FedEx gives for its fiscal 2022 year. After having seen so much e-commerce activity drive pandemic-related gains, a return to more typical business conditions could create a temporary pause in FedEx's growth. How much that appears in projections could in turn say a lot about whether the stock can return to its former upward trajectory.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将特别密切关注联邦快递为其2022财年提供的任何指导。在看到如此多的电子商务活动推动了与大流行相关的增长后，回归更典型的商业状况可能会导致联邦快递的增长暂时暂停。这一数字在预测中的出现程度反过来又可以在很大程度上说明该股是否能够回到以前的上升轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> Doing it</p><p><blockquote>正在做</blockquote></p><p> Nike is also slated to release its financial results on Thursday morning. Investors hope to see a significant reversal from last year's painful experience.</p><p><blockquote>耐克也定于周四上午发布财务业绩。投资者希望看到去年痛苦经历的重大逆转。</blockquote></p><p> Nike appears to be ready to get back on trackwith its quarterly results. Revenue is expected to soar more than 75% from year-ago levels, which reflected store closures and other disruptions related to the pandemic. Nike's earnings will likely reverse year-ago losses, although bottom-line performance is still in the process of recovering from more difficult conditions.</p><p><blockquote>耐克似乎已准备好通过季度业绩重回正轨。收入预计将比去年同期飙升75%以上，这反映了商店关闭和其他与大流行相关的干扰。耐克的盈利可能会扭转去年同期的亏损，尽管底线业绩仍在从更困难的条件中恢复。</blockquote></p><p> The big question is how a couple of key aspects of Nike's business will balance out. On one hand, demand is soaring both in Nike's home North American market and overseas in key places like China. That could help support revenue and profit gains into the coming fiscal year. At the same time, though, prices for materials have been on the rise, and that in turn could present challenges to profit margins.</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是耐克业务的几个关键方面将如何平衡。一方面，耐克的北美本土市场和中国等海外关键地区的需求都在飙升。这可能有助于支持下一财年的收入和利润增长。但与此同时，材料价格一直在上涨，这反过来可能会给利润率带来挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, Nike is looking to put its marketing machine to the test, with plenty of new product launches designed to stoke demand and give consumers a place to spend their savings. The success of those launches could well define the course of Nike's fiscal 2022, and that in turn could determine whether the stock can climb further after sizable gains over the past year or so.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，耐克正在寻求对其营销机器进行测试，推出大量新产品，旨在刺激需求并为消费者提供一个消费储蓄的地方。这些产品的成功很可能决定耐克2022财年的走势，进而决定该股在过去一年左右大幅上涨后能否进一步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> Be ready</p><p><blockquote>做好准备</blockquote></p><p> With so much uncertainty in the markets, key earnings reports can make or break the future direction for stocks. Market participants will watch releases from FedEx and Nike closely to find hints to where those two stocks -- and the entire market -- will move from here.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场存在如此多的不确定性，关键的收益报告可以决定股票的未来走向，也可以决定股票的未来走向。市场参与者将密切关注联邦快递和耐克的发布，以寻找这两只股票以及整个市场将走向何方的线索。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/bull-market-depends-on-these-2-must-watch-stocks/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FDX":"联邦快递","NKE":"耐克"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/bull-market-depends-on-these-2-must-watch-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175304129","content_text":"The stock market has done exceptionally well in 2021, continuing to climb to all-time record highs amid strong hopes for a recovering economy. With the world starting to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, investors are excited about the prospects for things returning to how they were before the huge disruptions we've seen across the globe since early 2020. That excitement played out in major market benchmarks Monday morning, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJINDICES:^DJI)climbed more than 500 points to 33,800, the S&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)gained 47 points to 4,214, and the Nasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)climbed 67 points to 14,098.\nEarnings season is always a good way to tell how individual companies are faring, but some businesses have more importance than others. Later this week, delivery specialist FedEx(NYSE:FDX)and athletic apparel giant Nike(NYSE:NKE)will give their latest readings on their corporate results. Both will have major implications not just for their own shareholders but for those following the broader economy as well.\nDelivering for investors?\nFedEx is set to report its latest results on Thursday, June 24. Investors are expecting big things from the company, but a lot more will depend on what FedEx says about what the future will bring.\nGiven the hit that FedEx took this time last year, it should come as little surprise that those following the delivery giant are looking for a major rebound. Consensus estimates among those tracking FedEx see earnings nearly doubling from year-ago levels, with revenue slated to rise at a healthy 24% pace.\nIndeed, in some ways,FedEx has too much of a good thing. Earlier this month, the company said it would cut service to some of its logistics customers who seek out less-than-truckload shipping services. The reason: Exceptionally strong demand was causing bottlenecks at key terminal locations that in turn were threatening to delay shipments. The issues aren't unique to FedEx, instead reflecting capacity constraints throughout the industry that are creating potential disruptions for customers seeking to get goods where they need to go.\nInvestors will want to pay particularly close attention to any guidance that FedEx gives for its fiscal 2022 year. After having seen so much e-commerce activity drive pandemic-related gains, a return to more typical business conditions could create a temporary pause in FedEx's growth. How much that appears in projections could in turn say a lot about whether the stock can return to its former upward trajectory.\nDoing it\nNike is also slated to release its financial results on Thursday morning. Investors hope to see a significant reversal from last year's painful experience.\nNike appears to be ready to get back on trackwith its quarterly results. Revenue is expected to soar more than 75% from year-ago levels, which reflected store closures and other disruptions related to the pandemic. Nike's earnings will likely reverse year-ago losses, although bottom-line performance is still in the process of recovering from more difficult conditions.\nThe big question is how a couple of key aspects of Nike's business will balance out. On one hand, demand is soaring both in Nike's home North American market and overseas in key places like China. That could help support revenue and profit gains into the coming fiscal year. At the same time, though, prices for materials have been on the rise, and that in turn could present challenges to profit margins.\nNevertheless, Nike is looking to put its marketing machine to the test, with plenty of new product launches designed to stoke demand and give consumers a place to spend their savings. The success of those launches could well define the course of Nike's fiscal 2022, and that in turn could determine whether the stock can climb further after sizable gains over the past year or so.\nBe ready\nWith so much uncertainty in the markets, key earnings reports can make or break the future direction for stocks. Market participants will watch releases from FedEx and Nike closely to find hints to where those two stocks -- and the entire market -- will move from here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FDX":0.9,"NKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120805148,"gmtCreate":1624317832584,"gmtModify":1634008026963,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120805148","repostId":"1186997776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120806295,"gmtCreate":1624317785417,"gmtModify":1634008028722,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alritr","listText":"Alritr","text":"Alritr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120806295","repostId":"1182478645","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120806033,"gmtCreate":1624317769522,"gmtModify":1634008029420,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120806033","repostId":"1167650307","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120808897,"gmtCreate":1624317750319,"gmtModify":1634008029891,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okayy","listText":"Okayy","text":"Okayy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120808897","repostId":"1146982088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146982088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624259620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146982088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146982088","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpect","content":"<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146982088","content_text":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.\nWhat does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP  facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.\nBut what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.\nThe problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:\n\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n\nBottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"\nIn retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.\nNeedless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market).\"\nWhat he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did notrewardallocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.\nIn other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fedalsomade a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"\nHe's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),5bps is too generous, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo ratewill upset the state of \"singularity\"and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"\nIndeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.\nTo help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves withtoo fewintraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.\nThis process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.\nAnd here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,some bond-heavy banks cannot.As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who cannothandle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"\nBottom line:whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.\nOr, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.\nBottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"\nTranslation: by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120801405,"gmtCreate":1624317732807,"gmtModify":1634008030380,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ah noo","listText":"Ah noo","text":"Ah 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570270082896201\">@justplainame</a>: Hmmm","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570270082896201\">@justplainame</a>: Hmmm","text":"//@justplainame: Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167893897","repostId":"2145700634","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167893064,"gmtCreate":1624256387458,"gmtModify":1634008785469,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570270082896201\">@justplainame</a>: 😅😅😅","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570270082896201\">@justplainame</a>: 😅😅😅","text":"//@justplainame: 😅😅😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167893064","repostId":"2145594707","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167807875,"gmtCreate":1624256147497,"gmtModify":1634008787717,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😅😅😅","listText":"😅😅😅","text":"😅😅😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167807875","repostId":"2145594707","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167807038,"gmtCreate":1624256126224,"gmtModify":1634008787942,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh oh...","listText":"Oh oh...","text":"Oh oh...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167807038","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price 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15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146982088","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpect","content":"<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146982088","content_text":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.\nWhat does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP  facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.\nBut what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.\nThe problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:\n\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n\nBottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"\nIn retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.\nNeedless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market).\"\nWhat he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did notrewardallocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.\nIn other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fedalsomade a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"\nHe's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),5bps is too generous, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo ratewill upset the state of \"singularity\"and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"\nIndeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.\nTo help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves withtoo fewintraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.\nThis process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.\nAnd here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,some bond-heavy banks cannot.As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who cannothandle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"\nBottom line:whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.\nOr, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.\nBottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"\nTranslation: by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164398552,"gmtCreate":1624169983076,"gmtModify":1634009840404,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570270082896201","authorIdStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ooh","listText":"Ooh","text":"Ooh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164398552","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167802667,"gmtCreate":1624256029359,"gmtModify":1634008789847,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570270082896201","authorIdStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmmm&nbsp; 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