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US$100 Oil Threatens to Compound World Economy's Inflation Shock
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2022-02-14
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further denting growth prospects and driving up ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us100-oil-threatens-to-compound-world-economys-inflation-shock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US$100 Oil Threatens to Compound World Economy's Inflation Shock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS$100 Oil Threatens to Compound World Economy's Inflation Shock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-14 15:25 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us100-oil-threatens-to-compound-world-economys-inflation-shock><strong>The Straits Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Oil's surge toward US$100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 is threatening to deal a double-blow to the world economy by further denting growth prospects and driving up ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us100-oil-threatens-to-compound-world-economys-inflation-shock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us100-oil-threatens-to-compound-world-economys-inflation-shock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2211200855","content_text":"HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Oil's surge toward US$100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 is threatening to deal a double-blow to the world economy by further denting growth prospects and driving up inflation.That's a worrying combination for the US Federal Reserve and fellow central banks as they seek to contain the strongest price pressures in decades without derailing recoveries from the pandemic. Group of 20 finance chiefs meet virtually this week for the first time this year with inflation among their top concerns.While energy exporters stand to benefit from the boom and oil's influence on economies isn't what it once was, much of the world will take a hit as companies and consumers find their bills rising and spending power squeezed by costlier food, transportation and heating.According to Bloomberg Economics' Shok model, a climb in crude to US$100 by the end of this month from around US$70 at the end of 2021 would lift inflation by about half a percentage point in the US and Europe in the second half of the year.More broadly, JPMorgan Chase & Co warns a run-up to US$150 a barrel would almost stall the global expansion and send inflation spiraling to over 7 per cent, more than three times the rate targeted by most monetary policy makers.\"The oil shock feeds into what is now a broader inflation problem,\" said long-time Fed official Peter Hooper, who's now global head of economic research for Deutsche Bank. \"There's a decent chance of a significant slowing of global growth\" as a result.Oil is about 50 per cent higher than a year ago, part of a broader rally in commodity prices that's swept up natural gas too. Among the drivers: A post-lockdown resurgence in worldwide demand, geopolitical tensions ignited by oil giant Russia and strained supply chains. Prospects for a renewed Iranian nuclear deal have at times cooled the market.Still, the rise has been piercing. Just two years ago, oil prices plunged briefly below zero.Fossil fuels - oil, as well as coal and natural gas - provide more than 80 per cent of the global economy's energy. And the cost of a typical basket of them is now up more than 50 per cent from a year ago, according to Gavekal Research, a consultancy.The energy crunch also compounds the ongoing squeeze in global supply chains, which drove up costs and delayed raw materials and finished goods.Vivian Lau, who runs a global logistics company based in Hong Kong, said her customers are already closely watching rising fuel costs.\"The price of oil is definitely a concern,\" said Lau, vice chair and group chief executive officer of Pacific Air Holdings. \"The increase is happening at a time when air freight prices are already very high.\"Economists are war gaming scenarios from here.More On This TopicBrent oil hits US$94 as red-hot rally extends on tightening supplyWhy are oil prices so high? Will they hit US$100 a barrel?Goldman Sachs Group, which sees oil at US$100 in the third quarter, estimates a 50 per cent increase lifts headline inflation by an average of 60 basis points, with emerging economies hit most.The International Monetary Fund recently raised its forecast for global consumer prices to an average 3.9 per cent in advanced economies this year, up from 2.3 per cent, and 5.9 per cent in emerging and developing nations.\"With inflation currently at multi-decade highs and uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook already unprecedented, the last thing the recovering global economy needs is another leg higher in energy prices,\" HSBC economists Janet Henry and James Pomeroy wrote in a Feb 4 report. \"Yet that is what it is getting.\"China, the world's biggest oil importer and goods exporter, has so far enjoyed benign inflation. But it's economy remains vulnerable as producers are already juggling high input costs and concerns over energy shortages.With price pressures proving more tenacious than earlier expected, central bankers are now prioritizing inflation fighting over demand support. US consumer prices surprising to a four-decade high sent shocks through the system, increasing bets the Fed will raise rates seven times this year, a faster pace than earlier expected.Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey this month partly justified the decision to raise UK interest rates by pointing to a \"squeeze from energy prices.\" European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently that officials will \"carefully examine\" how energy prices will impact the economy as they signal a shift toward tightening. The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday (Feb 10) also flagged oil prices as a risk.To be sure, the world economy is no longer the oil guzzler it was during previous decades, especially the 1970s, and alternative energy offers some buffer. Other pandemic-era insulators include swelling household savings and higher wages amid a tight labor market.In the US the emergence of the shale oil industry means its economy is less vulnerable to fuel shocks: While consumers are paying more for gasoline, domestic producers are earning more.Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics, estimates that each US$10 per barrel increase shaves 0.1 percentage point off of economic growth the following year. That compares with a 0.3 to 0.4 point blow prior to the fracking revolution.Other oil producers will have reason to celebrate, too.Russia's budget, for example, could reap more than US$65 billion in extra revenue this year, helping buffer the Kremlin against possible sanctions over Ukraine. Other emerging market producers would benefit, as would Canada and Middle Eastern economies.But for most consumers, and central bankers, much rides on how fast and how far energy goes, particularly if economies lose momentum globally.\"A continued rapid rise can raise risks of recession-like conditions in some countries, especially if fiscal policy is also tightening notably,\" said Priyanka Kishore of Oxford Economics, which estimates that every US$10 per barrel increase in oil eats around 0.2 percentage points from world growth.\"Hopefully,\" she said, \"this is not the straw that breaks the camels back.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631539512,"gmtCreate":1644824595494,"gmtModify":1644824595494,"author":{"id":"3570258004328851","authorId":"3570258004328851","name":"Zheng Feng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa97cf3ff701bddcc45e906e610609f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631539512","repostId":"2211209385","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":631539453,"gmtCreate":1644824616003,"gmtModify":1644824616003,"author":{"id":"3570258004328851","authorId":"3570258004328851","name":"Zheng Feng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa97cf3ff701bddcc45e906e610609f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631539453","repostId":"2211200855","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2211200855","pubTimestamp":1644823501,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2211200855?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-14 15:25","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"US$100 Oil Threatens to Compound World Economy's Inflation Shock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2211200855","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Oil's surge toward US$100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 is threaten","content":"<div>\n<p>HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Oil's surge toward US$100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 is threatening to deal a double-blow to the world economy by further denting growth prospects and driving up ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us100-oil-threatens-to-compound-world-economys-inflation-shock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS$100 Oil Threatens to Compound World Economy's Inflation Shock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-14 15:25 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us100-oil-threatens-to-compound-world-economys-inflation-shock><strong>The Straits Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Oil's surge toward US$100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 is threatening to deal a double-blow to the world economy by further denting growth prospects and driving up ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us100-oil-threatens-to-compound-world-economys-inflation-shock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us100-oil-threatens-to-compound-world-economys-inflation-shock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2211200855","content_text":"HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Oil's surge toward US$100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 is threatening to deal a double-blow to the world economy by further denting growth prospects and driving up inflation.That's a worrying combination for the US Federal Reserve and fellow central banks as they seek to contain the strongest price pressures in decades without derailing recoveries from the pandemic. Group of 20 finance chiefs meet virtually this week for the first time this year with inflation among their top concerns.While energy exporters stand to benefit from the boom and oil's influence on economies isn't what it once was, much of the world will take a hit as companies and consumers find their bills rising and spending power squeezed by costlier food, transportation and heating.According to Bloomberg Economics' Shok model, a climb in crude to US$100 by the end of this month from around US$70 at the end of 2021 would lift inflation by about half a percentage point in the US and Europe in the second half of the year.More broadly, JPMorgan Chase & Co warns a run-up to US$150 a barrel would almost stall the global expansion and send inflation spiraling to over 7 per cent, more than three times the rate targeted by most monetary policy makers.\"The oil shock feeds into what is now a broader inflation problem,\" said long-time Fed official Peter Hooper, who's now global head of economic research for Deutsche Bank. \"There's a decent chance of a significant slowing of global growth\" as a result.Oil is about 50 per cent higher than a year ago, part of a broader rally in commodity prices that's swept up natural gas too. Among the drivers: A post-lockdown resurgence in worldwide demand, geopolitical tensions ignited by oil giant Russia and strained supply chains. Prospects for a renewed Iranian nuclear deal have at times cooled the market.Still, the rise has been piercing. Just two years ago, oil prices plunged briefly below zero.Fossil fuels - oil, as well as coal and natural gas - provide more than 80 per cent of the global economy's energy. And the cost of a typical basket of them is now up more than 50 per cent from a year ago, according to Gavekal Research, a consultancy.The energy crunch also compounds the ongoing squeeze in global supply chains, which drove up costs and delayed raw materials and finished goods.Vivian Lau, who runs a global logistics company based in Hong Kong, said her customers are already closely watching rising fuel costs.\"The price of oil is definitely a concern,\" said Lau, vice chair and group chief executive officer of Pacific Air Holdings. \"The increase is happening at a time when air freight prices are already very high.\"Economists are war gaming scenarios from here.More On This TopicBrent oil hits US$94 as red-hot rally extends on tightening supplyWhy are oil prices so high? Will they hit US$100 a barrel?Goldman Sachs Group, which sees oil at US$100 in the third quarter, estimates a 50 per cent increase lifts headline inflation by an average of 60 basis points, with emerging economies hit most.The International Monetary Fund recently raised its forecast for global consumer prices to an average 3.9 per cent in advanced economies this year, up from 2.3 per cent, and 5.9 per cent in emerging and developing nations.\"With inflation currently at multi-decade highs and uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook already unprecedented, the last thing the recovering global economy needs is another leg higher in energy prices,\" HSBC economists Janet Henry and James Pomeroy wrote in a Feb 4 report. \"Yet that is what it is getting.\"China, the world's biggest oil importer and goods exporter, has so far enjoyed benign inflation. But it's economy remains vulnerable as producers are already juggling high input costs and concerns over energy shortages.With price pressures proving more tenacious than earlier expected, central bankers are now prioritizing inflation fighting over demand support. US consumer prices surprising to a four-decade high sent shocks through the system, increasing bets the Fed will raise rates seven times this year, a faster pace than earlier expected.Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey this month partly justified the decision to raise UK interest rates by pointing to a \"squeeze from energy prices.\" European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently that officials will \"carefully examine\" how energy prices will impact the economy as they signal a shift toward tightening. The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday (Feb 10) also flagged oil prices as a risk.To be sure, the world economy is no longer the oil guzzler it was during previous decades, especially the 1970s, and alternative energy offers some buffer. Other pandemic-era insulators include swelling household savings and higher wages amid a tight labor market.In the US the emergence of the shale oil industry means its economy is less vulnerable to fuel shocks: While consumers are paying more for gasoline, domestic producers are earning more.Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics, estimates that each US$10 per barrel increase shaves 0.1 percentage point off of economic growth the following year. That compares with a 0.3 to 0.4 point blow prior to the fracking revolution.Other oil producers will have reason to celebrate, too.Russia's budget, for example, could reap more than US$65 billion in extra revenue this year, helping buffer the Kremlin against possible sanctions over Ukraine. Other emerging market producers would benefit, as would Canada and Middle Eastern economies.But for most consumers, and central bankers, much rides on how fast and how far energy goes, particularly if economies lose momentum globally.\"A continued rapid rise can raise risks of recession-like conditions in some countries, especially if fiscal policy is also tightening notably,\" said Priyanka Kishore of Oxford Economics, which estimates that every US$10 per barrel increase in oil eats around 0.2 percentage points from world growth.\"Hopefully,\" she said, \"this is not the straw that breaks the camels back.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631539512,"gmtCreate":1644824595494,"gmtModify":1644824595494,"author":{"id":"3570258004328851","authorId":"3570258004328851","name":"Zheng Feng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa97cf3ff701bddcc45e906e610609f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631539512","repostId":"2211209385","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2211209385","pubTimestamp":1644793624,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2211209385?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-14 07:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Russia-Ukraine Tensions, Retail Sales, Walmart Earnings: What to Know This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2211209385","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Choppiness in U.S. stocks is expected to persist this week as investors grapple with the prospect of","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Choppiness in U.S. stocks is expected to persist this week as investors grapple with the prospect of swifter monetary tightening and escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. And a new read on retail sales will be released Wednesday giving investors more insights into consumer spending.</p><p>Concerns over military action by the Kremlin have created a new headwind for investors, particularly after the White House warned on Friday that a possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia could come within days. The statement dealt a fresh blow to markets.</p><p>“The Russia-Ukraine tensions have hovered over already shaky investor sentiment,” Comerica Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer John Lynch said in a note. “Investors have been counting on a diplomatic resolution, but recent developments indicate this may be wishful thinking and therefore, not fully priced into the markets.”</p><p>The geopolitical tensions add to the uncertainty around central bank policy that has dominated market sentiment in recent months. Friday’s warning by the Biden administration weighed on stocks and sent oil prices soaring to a seven-year high.</p><p>“By pushing energy prices even higher, a Russian invasion would likely exacerbate inflation and redouble pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates,” Comerica Bank Chief Economist Bill Adams said in a note. “From the Fed’s perspective, the inflationary effects of a Russian invasion and higher energy prices would likely outweigh the shock’s negative implications for global growth.”</p><p>The Fed is already under pressure to act on the fastest increase in prices in 40 years. Wall Street was rattled last week by a highly-anticipated fresh print on the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which notched a steeper-than-expected 7.5% increase over the year ended January to mark the largest annual jump since 1982. The surge heightened calls for the Federal Reserve to intervene more aggressively than anticipated to rein in soaring price levels, even raising the possibility of an emergency hike before the bank’s next policy meeting in March.</p><p>“As the inflation fire burns even hotter, the Federal Reserve will have to bring an even bigger firehose to put it out,” FWDBONDS Chief Economist Chris Rupkey said in a note.</p><p>Worries over above-estimated inflation have raised questions about whether or not the central bank might deliver on a 50 basis point move in mid-March. The Fed has not executed a “double” rate increase in a single policy decision since May 2000.</p><p>Fed watchers including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank had ramped up their calls on how many times policymakers will increase rates. Goldman now sees the Federal Reserve hiking short-term borrowing costs seven times this year rather than the five it had expected earlier, while Deutsche Bank projects a 50 basis point rate hike in March and five more 25 basis point increases in the year.</p><p>CME Group's FedWatch tool showed investors were pricing in a 99% chance Fed policymakers will raise rates by 50 basis points in March as of Friday, a jump of 24% from the probability reflected two days earlier.</p><p>Some experts say the projections are greatly exaggerated.</p><p>“Even with elevated levels of inflation, we expect the Federal Reserve to tighten less than the market expects in 2022,” Treasury Partners Chief Investment Officer Richard Saperstein said in a note.</p><p>“We do not expect the Federal Reserve to announce rate hikes at every meeting and such extreme tightening scenarios suggest that we’re currently witnessing peak Fed mania,” he wrote, adding a moderate tightening process through a combination of rate hikes and the implementation of quantitative tightening starting this summer were likely.</p><p>On the geopolitical front, LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick also appeared to temper the notion that a move by Russia into Ukraine would crash the stock market, pointing out that, historically, the great majority of geopolitical events going back to World War II did not put much of a dent in equities and losses were typically recovered quickly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874e40dd031fe2fadf0415f24e036dcc\" tg-width=\"5500\" tg-height=\"3667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>U.S. President Joe Biden holds virtual talks with Russia's President Vladimir Putin amid Western fears that Moscow plans to attack Ukraine, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken listens with other officials during a secure video call from the Situation Room at the White House in Washington, U.S., December 7, 2021. The White House/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY TPX IMAGES OF THE DAYHandout . / reuters</p><p>“You can’t minimize what today’s news could mean on that part of the world and the people impacted, but from an investment point of view we need to remember that major geopolitical events historically haven’t moved stocks much,” Detrick said.</p><p>As an example, Detrick cited <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the best six-month runs in U.S. stocks ever following the assassination of President John F. Kennedy in November 1963.</p><p>“The truth is a solid economy can make up for a lot of sins,” Detrick added.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e7861525c30cb94872b9893fdecc17e\" tg-width=\"1631\" tg-height=\"1130\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The great majority of geopolitical events going back to World War II didn’t put much of a dent in stocks, with any losses made up quite quickly, according to Ryan Detrick, hief Market Strategist for LPL Financial.LPL Financial,</p><h2><b>Retail sales</b></h2><p>Consensus economists are expecting to see retail sales, released by the U.S. Census Bureau, rise by 2% in January compared to December's decrease of 1.9%, but sales excluding autos, gasoline, building materials and food services is expected to rise at a softer 0.8%, according to Bloomberg data. This would compare to December's decline of 2.3%.</p><p>"The mom [month-over-month] gain in retail ex auto was negatively impacted by restaurants and gas spending, which were down 1.7% and 3.8% mom, respectively. As a result, the core control group, which nets out auto, gas, building and restaurants showed a strong 1.9% mom gain," said BofA Securities in a research note last week. "Keep in mind that the Census retail sales report does not capture services spending other than restaurants spending so the impact on Census Bureau data from the Omicron distortions will be fairly muted."</p><p>Although earnings season is slowly winding down, another docket of corporate results remains underway for investors to weigh against monetary and geopolitical conditions this week.</p><p>Retail giant Walmart (WMT) will report fiscal fourth quarter 2021 earnings Thursday before the bell which will provide a fresh look into supply-chain issues as well as consumer spending. Walmart is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.50 per share on revenue of $151.51 billion for the quarter, according to Bloomberg consensus. U.S. same-store sales is expected to increase 6.1%, ahead of guidance of 5%, for the holiday shopping quarter, according to Bloomberg.</p><p>"We believe WMT's core business remained strong in F4Q following a strong F3Q (US comps were +9.2%, with transactions +5.7%), and given strong inventory positioning (supported by more favorable port access, long-term container shipping agreements and chartered vessel capacity) that likely supported share gains vs. smaller competitors this holiday." said BofA Securities in a research note on Feb. 10.</p><p>Other big-name companies to report earnings through Friday include ViacomCBS (VIAC), Airbnb (ABNB), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and Roku (ROKU).</p><p>On Capitol Hill, the fate of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and a lineup of central bank nominees including Fed governor and vice chair pick Lael Brainard will be in focus as the Senate Banking Committee readies to hold a series of confirmation votes this week.</p><h2><b>Economic calendar</b></h2><ul><li><p><b>Monday:</b> <i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p></li><li><p><b>Tuesday:</b> Producer Price Index (PPI) final demand, month-over-month, January (0.5% expected, 0.2% in December, upwardly revised to 0.3%); PPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, January (0.4% expected, 0.5% in December); PPI excluding food, energy, and trade, month-over-month, January (0.4% expected, 0.4% in December, downwardly revised to 0.3%); PPI year-over-year, January (9.0% expected, 9.7% in December); PPI, year-over-year, January (7.8% expected, 8.3% in December); PPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, January (6.3% expected, 6.9% in December); PPI excluding food, energy, and trade, year-over-year, January (6.3% expected, 6.9% in December); Empire Manufacturing, February (11.0 expected, -0.7 during prior month); Net Long-Term TIC Outflows, December ($137.4 billion during prior month); Total Net TIC Outflows, December ($223.9 billion during prior month)</p></li><li><p><b>Wednesday:</b> MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Feb. 11 (-8.1% during prior week); Retail Sales Advance, month-over-month, January (2.0% expected, -1.9% in December); Retail Sales excluding autos, month-over-month, January (0.8% expected, -2.3% in December); Retail Sales excluding autos and gas, month-over-month, January (1.0% expected, -2.5% in December); Import Price Index, month-over-month, January (1.3% expected, -0.2% in December); Import Price Index excluding petroleum, month-over-month, January (0.4% expected, 0.3% in December); Import Price Endex, year-over-year, January (9.8% expected, 10.4% in December); Export Price Index, month-over-month, January (1.3% expected, -1.8% in December); Export Price Index, year-over-year, January (14.7% in December); Industrial Production, month-over-month, January (0.4% expected, -0.1% in December); Capacity Utilization, January (76.8% expected, 76.5% in December); Manufacturing (SIC) Production, January (0.3% expected, -0.3% in December); Business Inventories, December (2.1% expected,1.3% in November); NAHB Housing Market Index, February (83 expected, 83 in January); FOMC Meeting Minutes, January 26</p></li><li><p><b>Thursday:</b> Building permits, January (1.750 million expected, 1.873 million in December, upwardly revised to 1.885 million); Building permits, month-over-month, January (-7.2% expected, 9.1% in December, upwardly revised to 9.8%); Housing starts, January (1.700 million expected, 1.702 million in December); Housing starts, month-over-month, January (-0.1% expected, 1.4% in December); Initial jobless claims, week ended Feb. 12 (220,000 expected, 223,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Feb. 5 (1.621 million during prior week); Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, February (20.0 expected, 23.2 in January)</p></li><li><p><b>Friday: </b>Existing Home Sales, January (6.10 million expected, 6.18 million in December); Existing Home Sales, month-over-month, January (-1.3% expected, -4.6% in December); Leading Index, January (0.2% expected, 0.8% in December)</p></li></ul><h2><b>Earnings calendar</b></h2><p><b>Monday</b></p><p>Before market open: TreeHouse Foods (THS), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBR\">Weber Inc.</a> (WEBR)</p><p>After market close: $Vornado Realty Trust(VNO-N)$ (VNO), Avis Budget Group (CAR), Arista Networks (ANET), Advance Auto Parts (AAP)</p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p>Before market open: Marriott International (MAR)</p><p>After market close: ViacomCBS (VIAC), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Airbnb (ABNB), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Roblox (RBLX), Denny’s (DENN), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc. (WH), ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI)</p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p>Before market open: Kraft Heinz (KHC), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), Analog Devices (ADI), Shopify (SHOP)</p><p>After market close: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Nvidia (NVDA), TripAdvisor (TRIP), AIG (AIG), DoorDash (DASH), Hyatt Hotels (H), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Marathon Oil (MRO), Energy Transfer (ET)</p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p>Before market open: Nestlé (NSRGY) Walmart (WMT), US Foods (USFD), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AN\">AutoNation</a> (AN)</p><p>After market close: Shake Shack (SHAK), Roku (ROKU), Dropbox (DBX),Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT)</p><p><b>Friday</b></p><p>Before market open: Deere (DE), DraftKings (DKNG), Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN), Allianz (ALIZY)</p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Russia-Ukraine Tensions, Retail Sales, Walmart Earnings: What to Know This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRussia-Ukraine Tensions, Retail Sales, Walmart Earnings: What to Know This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-14 07:07 GMT+8 <a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/double-rate-increases-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-what-to-know-this-week-200245001.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Choppiness in U.S. stocks is expected to persist this week as investors grapple with the prospect of swifter monetary tightening and escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. And a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/double-rate-increases-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-what-to-know-this-week-200245001.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XLF":"金融ETF","WMT":"沃尔玛","SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/double-rate-increases-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-what-to-know-this-week-200245001.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2211209385","content_text":"Choppiness in U.S. stocks is expected to persist this week as investors grapple with the prospect of swifter monetary tightening and escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. And a new read on retail sales will be released Wednesday giving investors more insights into consumer spending.Concerns over military action by the Kremlin have created a new headwind for investors, particularly after the White House warned on Friday that a possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia could come within days. The statement dealt a fresh blow to markets.“The Russia-Ukraine tensions have hovered over already shaky investor sentiment,” Comerica Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer John Lynch said in a note. “Investors have been counting on a diplomatic resolution, but recent developments indicate this may be wishful thinking and therefore, not fully priced into the markets.”The geopolitical tensions add to the uncertainty around central bank policy that has dominated market sentiment in recent months. Friday’s warning by the Biden administration weighed on stocks and sent oil prices soaring to a seven-year high.“By pushing energy prices even higher, a Russian invasion would likely exacerbate inflation and redouble pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates,” Comerica Bank Chief Economist Bill Adams said in a note. “From the Fed’s perspective, the inflationary effects of a Russian invasion and higher energy prices would likely outweigh the shock’s negative implications for global growth.”The Fed is already under pressure to act on the fastest increase in prices in 40 years. Wall Street was rattled last week by a highly-anticipated fresh print on the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which notched a steeper-than-expected 7.5% increase over the year ended January to mark the largest annual jump since 1982. The surge heightened calls for the Federal Reserve to intervene more aggressively than anticipated to rein in soaring price levels, even raising the possibility of an emergency hike before the bank’s next policy meeting in March.“As the inflation fire burns even hotter, the Federal Reserve will have to bring an even bigger firehose to put it out,” FWDBONDS Chief Economist Chris Rupkey said in a note.Worries over above-estimated inflation have raised questions about whether or not the central bank might deliver on a 50 basis point move in mid-March. The Fed has not executed a “double” rate increase in a single policy decision since May 2000.Fed watchers including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank had ramped up their calls on how many times policymakers will increase rates. Goldman now sees the Federal Reserve hiking short-term borrowing costs seven times this year rather than the five it had expected earlier, while Deutsche Bank projects a 50 basis point rate hike in March and five more 25 basis point increases in the year.CME Group's FedWatch tool showed investors were pricing in a 99% chance Fed policymakers will raise rates by 50 basis points in March as of Friday, a jump of 24% from the probability reflected two days earlier.Some experts say the projections are greatly exaggerated.“Even with elevated levels of inflation, we expect the Federal Reserve to tighten less than the market expects in 2022,” Treasury Partners Chief Investment Officer Richard Saperstein said in a note.“We do not expect the Federal Reserve to announce rate hikes at every meeting and such extreme tightening scenarios suggest that we’re currently witnessing peak Fed mania,” he wrote, adding a moderate tightening process through a combination of rate hikes and the implementation of quantitative tightening starting this summer were likely.On the geopolitical front, LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick also appeared to temper the notion that a move by Russia into Ukraine would crash the stock market, pointing out that, historically, the great majority of geopolitical events going back to World War II did not put much of a dent in equities and losses were typically recovered quickly.U.S. President Joe Biden holds virtual talks with Russia's President Vladimir Putin amid Western fears that Moscow plans to attack Ukraine, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken listens with other officials during a secure video call from the Situation Room at the White House in Washington, U.S., December 7, 2021. The White House/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY TPX IMAGES OF THE DAYHandout . / reuters“You can’t minimize what today’s news could mean on that part of the world and the people impacted, but from an investment point of view we need to remember that major geopolitical events historically haven’t moved stocks much,” Detrick said.As an example, Detrick cited one of the best six-month runs in U.S. stocks ever following the assassination of President John F. Kennedy in November 1963.“The truth is a solid economy can make up for a lot of sins,” Detrick added.The great majority of geopolitical events going back to World War II didn’t put much of a dent in stocks, with any losses made up quite quickly, according to Ryan Detrick, hief Market Strategist for LPL Financial.LPL Financial,Retail salesConsensus economists are expecting to see retail sales, released by the U.S. Census Bureau, rise by 2% in January compared to December's decrease of 1.9%, but sales excluding autos, gasoline, building materials and food services is expected to rise at a softer 0.8%, according to Bloomberg data. This would compare to December's decline of 2.3%.\"The mom [month-over-month] gain in retail ex auto was negatively impacted by restaurants and gas spending, which were down 1.7% and 3.8% mom, respectively. As a result, the core control group, which nets out auto, gas, building and restaurants showed a strong 1.9% mom gain,\" said BofA Securities in a research note last week. \"Keep in mind that the Census retail sales report does not capture services spending other than restaurants spending so the impact on Census Bureau data from the Omicron distortions will be fairly muted.\"Although earnings season is slowly winding down, another docket of corporate results remains underway for investors to weigh against monetary and geopolitical conditions this week.Retail giant Walmart (WMT) will report fiscal fourth quarter 2021 earnings Thursday before the bell which will provide a fresh look into supply-chain issues as well as consumer spending. Walmart is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.50 per share on revenue of $151.51 billion for the quarter, according to Bloomberg consensus. U.S. same-store sales is expected to increase 6.1%, ahead of guidance of 5%, for the holiday shopping quarter, according to Bloomberg.\"We believe WMT's core business remained strong in F4Q following a strong F3Q (US comps were +9.2%, with transactions +5.7%), and given strong inventory positioning (supported by more favorable port access, long-term container shipping agreements and chartered vessel capacity) that likely supported share gains vs. smaller competitors this holiday.\" said BofA Securities in a research note on Feb. 10.Other big-name companies to report earnings through Friday include ViacomCBS (VIAC), Airbnb (ABNB), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and Roku (ROKU).On Capitol Hill, the fate of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and a lineup of central bank nominees including Fed governor and vice chair pick Lael Brainard will be in focus as the Senate Banking Committee readies to hold a series of confirmation votes this week.Economic calendarMonday: No notable reports scheduled for releaseTuesday: Producer Price Index (PPI) final demand, month-over-month, January (0.5% expected, 0.2% in December, upwardly revised to 0.3%); PPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, January (0.4% expected, 0.5% in December); PPI excluding food, energy, and trade, month-over-month, January (0.4% expected, 0.4% in December, downwardly revised to 0.3%); PPI year-over-year, January (9.0% expected, 9.7% in December); PPI, year-over-year, January (7.8% expected, 8.3% in December); PPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, January (6.3% expected, 6.9% in December); PPI excluding food, energy, and trade, year-over-year, January (6.3% expected, 6.9% in December); Empire Manufacturing, February (11.0 expected, -0.7 during prior month); Net Long-Term TIC Outflows, December ($137.4 billion during prior month); Total Net TIC Outflows, December ($223.9 billion during prior month)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Feb. 11 (-8.1% during prior week); Retail Sales Advance, month-over-month, January (2.0% expected, -1.9% in December); Retail Sales excluding autos, month-over-month, January (0.8% expected, -2.3% in December); Retail Sales excluding autos and gas, month-over-month, January (1.0% expected, -2.5% in December); Import Price Index, month-over-month, January (1.3% expected, -0.2% in December); Import Price Index excluding petroleum, month-over-month, January (0.4% expected, 0.3% in December); Import Price Endex, year-over-year, January (9.8% expected, 10.4% in December); Export Price Index, month-over-month, January (1.3% expected, -1.8% in December); Export Price Index, year-over-year, January (14.7% in December); Industrial Production, month-over-month, January (0.4% expected, -0.1% in December); Capacity Utilization, January (76.8% expected, 76.5% in December); Manufacturing (SIC) Production, January (0.3% expected, -0.3% in December); Business Inventories, December (2.1% expected,1.3% in November); NAHB Housing Market Index, February (83 expected, 83 in January); FOMC Meeting Minutes, January 26Thursday: Building permits, January (1.750 million expected, 1.873 million in December, upwardly revised to 1.885 million); Building permits, month-over-month, January (-7.2% expected, 9.1% in December, upwardly revised to 9.8%); Housing starts, January (1.700 million expected, 1.702 million in December); Housing starts, month-over-month, January (-0.1% expected, 1.4% in December); Initial jobless claims, week ended Feb. 12 (220,000 expected, 223,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Feb. 5 (1.621 million during prior week); Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, February (20.0 expected, 23.2 in January)Friday: Existing Home Sales, January (6.10 million expected, 6.18 million in December); Existing Home Sales, month-over-month, January (-1.3% expected, -4.6% in December); Leading Index, January (0.2% expected, 0.8% in December)Earnings calendarMondayBefore market open: TreeHouse Foods (THS), Weber Inc. (WEBR)After market close: $Vornado Realty Trust(VNO-N)$ (VNO), Avis Budget Group (CAR), Arista Networks (ANET), Advance Auto Parts (AAP)TuesdayBefore market open: Marriott International (MAR)After market close: ViacomCBS (VIAC), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Airbnb (ABNB), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Roblox (RBLX), Denny’s (DENN), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc. (WH), ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI)WednesdayBefore market open: Kraft Heinz (KHC), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), Analog Devices (ADI), Shopify (SHOP)After market close: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Nvidia (NVDA), TripAdvisor (TRIP), AIG (AIG), DoorDash (DASH), Hyatt Hotels (H), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Marathon Oil (MRO), Energy Transfer (ET)ThursdayBefore market open: Nestlé (NSRGY) Walmart (WMT), US Foods (USFD), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), AutoNation (AN)After market close: Shake Shack (SHAK), Roku (ROKU), Dropbox (DBX),Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT)FridayBefore market open: Deere (DE), DraftKings (DKNG), Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN), Allianz (ALIZY)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631531043,"gmtCreate":1644824884219,"gmtModify":1644824884219,"author":{"id":"3570258004328851","authorId":"3570258004328851","name":"Zheng Feng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa97cf3ff701bddcc45e906e610609f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":" Good","listText":" Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631531043","repostId":"2211209385","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
