Ely1113的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Ely1113

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2020-12-10

中涉军股

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2021-12-01

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@美股研习社:美股掘金 | 疫情重来的机会梳理

2021-04-27

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$什么时候发财报

2021-03-19

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2021-01-29

大家这反应什么意思

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2020-12-17

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2020-12-16

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2020-12-14

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| 疫情重来的机会梳理","htmlText":"作者&nbsp;| 美股研习社数据支持&nbsp;|&nbsp;勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）01 逻辑梳理这是个由黑天鹅驱动的世界，重大事件背后往往蕴含着重大的机遇。回看过去2个十年，其实投资逻辑很清晰：00年科网泡沫破裂，暴跌之后是web 1.0的崛起；08年金融危机后，迎来了移动互联网的爆发。过去抓住这两条投资的主线，产生的回报是数十倍、百倍计的。如果选中α并坚持持有，回报将更加恐怖。那么去年又来了一次黑天鹅（新冠疫情），其中的机会应该如何把握？其实长期的格局已相对明朗，下一个十年的主线主要包括：智能电车、元宇宙和生物技术（尤其是基因技术）。其中会衍生出非常多的机会，此前我们有文章进行了梳理和分析，接下来也会有持续的添加与跟进。那么今天的文章主要谈谈中短线的机会，也就是疫情逻辑本身，类似于08年金融危机后地产股报复性反弹。首先再来回顾一下整体盘面。这两年全球经济、资本市场被新冠疫情搅得天翻地覆，去年美股四次熔断后又迅速重回牛市模式，一路新高。今年逻辑的主线是经济恢复和通胀，2月来了次成长股大幅杀估值，9月因为债务上限和taper问题也来了波级别不低的回调。那么自9月回调之后，美股股指再次创下新高，直到上周。上周五全球股市齐刷刷暴跌，原油更是跌幅高达13%，恐慌指数VIX一夜之间暴涨54%。这主要由于在南非发现了一种新型新冠病毒变异毒株“奥密克戎”。从现有资料来看，这个变异毒株确实很可怕，有强逃避免疫能力，而且比德尔塔毒株传播更快。带来的问题也就很严峻了——本就紧张的供应链将进一步加剧，发达国家可能陆续封锁，特别是美国如果封锁后果不堪设想。去年的疫情逻辑能再重演一波吗？这主要得看奥秘克戎是否能强到扭转今年复苏的局势，跟踪的指标包括扩散速度，疫苗和特效药的有效度等。从周末全球各地报的数据来看，奥秘克戎非常强的置信度相对高——（1）总共含有超过50个突变，其","listText":"作者&nbsp;| 美股研习社数据支持&nbsp;|&nbsp;勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）01 逻辑梳理这是个由黑天鹅驱动的世界，重大事件背后往往蕴含着重大的机遇。回看过去2个十年，其实投资逻辑很清晰：00年科网泡沫破裂，暴跌之后是web 1.0的崛起；08年金融危机后，迎来了移动互联网的爆发。过去抓住这两条投资的主线，产生的回报是数十倍、百倍计的。如果选中α并坚持持有，回报将更加恐怖。那么去年又来了一次黑天鹅（新冠疫情），其中的机会应该如何把握？其实长期的格局已相对明朗，下一个十年的主线主要包括：智能电车、元宇宙和生物技术（尤其是基因技术）。其中会衍生出非常多的机会，此前我们有文章进行了梳理和分析，接下来也会有持续的添加与跟进。那么今天的文章主要谈谈中短线的机会，也就是疫情逻辑本身，类似于08年金融危机后地产股报复性反弹。首先再来回顾一下整体盘面。这两年全球经济、资本市场被新冠疫情搅得天翻地覆，去年美股四次熔断后又迅速重回牛市模式，一路新高。今年逻辑的主线是经济恢复和通胀，2月来了次成长股大幅杀估值，9月因为债务上限和taper问题也来了波级别不低的回调。那么自9月回调之后，美股股指再次创下新高，直到上周。上周五全球股市齐刷刷暴跌，原油更是跌幅高达13%，恐慌指数VIX一夜之间暴涨54%。这主要由于在南非发现了一种新型新冠病毒变异毒株“奥密克戎”。从现有资料来看，这个变异毒株确实很可怕，有强逃避免疫能力，而且比德尔塔毒株传播更快。带来的问题也就很严峻了——本就紧张的供应链将进一步加剧，发达国家可能陆续封锁，特别是美国如果封锁后果不堪设想。去年的疫情逻辑能再重演一波吗？这主要得看奥秘克戎是否能强到扭转今年复苏的局势，跟踪的指标包括扩散速度，疫苗和特效药的有效度等。从周末全球各地报的数据来看，奥秘克戎非常强的置信度相对高——（1）总共含有超过50个突变，其","text":"作者 | 美股研习社数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）01 逻辑梳理这是个由黑天鹅驱动的世界，重大事件背后往往蕴含着重大的机遇。回看过去2个十年，其实投资逻辑很清晰：00年科网泡沫破裂，暴跌之后是web 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