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大汉双林

大汉双林

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2021-12-03

Up up up

Alibaba shares fell nearly 9%, hitting a 52 week low<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价跌近9%创52周新低</blockquote>

2021-02-14

Baby step

2020-12-21

Ride the wave

“投机浪潮”有多疯狂？看这8个指标就够了

2020-12-22

有惊无险的一天，科技与生物股不趺反升，趁女股神木头姐名气正旺，做为小股民的我们，就无脑的一昧跟风就好了！但须小心神话及市场泡沫破灭！切记!须无时rebalance !

2021-12-06

Like

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2021-09-04

W—甲/0r·火一卟!{/yk迁|F?中、'

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2021-09-04

…_'

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2021-09-04

\\\jsr

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2021-09-04

ib's)!$·尹' ,.入l>—J7j>乛{·u>

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2021-09-04

,

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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba shares fell nearly 9%, hitting a 52 week low<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价跌近9%创52周新低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-03 22:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Alibaba shares fell nearly 9%&nbsp;in morning trading, hitting a 52 week low.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价早盘下跌近9%，创52周新低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bffdf13d46c5b423e7d19ca33abd1d05\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192973257","content_text":"Alibaba shares fell nearly 9% in morning trading, hitting a 52 week 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up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00362880ef6226c897ccec9b6afab800","width":"750","height":"2244"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382027635","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314213025,"gmtCreate":1612353215567,"gmtModify":1703760707546,"author":{"id":"3570058627460962","authorId":"3570058627460962","name":"大汉双林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543f4098b129bdebbefab1ff0cc5cf0a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570058627460962","idStr":"3570058627460962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314213025","repostId":"314698778","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":314698778,"gmtCreate":1612341624294,"gmtModify":1703760550505,"author":{"id":"3528863185792591","authorId":"3528863185792591","name":"财经涂鸦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87dd6f2b7a7d8df9244b76b1429746bf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3528863185792591","idStr":"3528863185792591"},"themes":[],"title":"京东方业绩预测：净利同增或超150%，产品或用于iPhone13","htmlText":"“市场各尺寸的TV面板的价格涨幅已经超过65%。”作者：宁泊为编辑：tuya公司情报专家《财经涂鸦》消息，2021年1月30日，京东方A（000725.SZ）发布了2020年业绩预告，2020年实现归母净利润48-51亿元，同比增长150-166%，实现扣非利润25-28亿元，去年同期为亏损11.67亿元。拆分来看，在2020第四季度单季，京东方实现归母净利23.24-26.24亿元，环比增长73.39%-95.78%；实现扣非净利16.12-19.12亿元，环比增长51.50%-79.70%，业绩增长符合预期。我们判断，环比同比实现高增的主要原因来自全球面板市场价格上涨与京东方投建产能的释放。并综合了市场的多面信息判断，京东方在近期出现的股价下挫并非是主营基本面出现问题所致，推断与美国国际贸易委员会对特定有源矩阵OLED显示设备及其组件启动337调查有关，这并非美国第一次对国产面板启动337调查（TCL电子，2020年10月），因此我们不认为这项调查会动摇京东方的基本面。要快速理解京东方业绩增长的动力，产能方面需分为两个角度：智能手机与电视大屏。与智能手机面板对应的是京东方的柔性AMOLED产品，结合此前2020半年报京东方电话会议的内容来看，京东方未来的布局重心也放在此处。不过虽然该业务已较2019年的产收大幅增长，但其产线尚处于爬坡期，即便已经与华为签订供应，但受下游绑定客户的销量下滑影响，这项业务的表现暂时也还有待成长。不过值得一提的是，京东方目前确实已经通过了苹果认证，后续能否出现在iPhone 13之上，还是一如既往地停留在传闻中，只能等到官方通报揭晓，不过如真能签下苹果，那么OLED的份额攀升将很快成为京东方苦苦寻找的“第二增长曲线”。电视大屏方面，2020年下半年以来，全球消费市场中对笔电、TV的需求因疫情居家而旺盛起来，带动IT/TV类面板出货加大，供应端","listText":"“市场各尺寸的TV面板的价格涨幅已经超过65%。”作者：宁泊为编辑：tuya公司情报专家《财经涂鸦》消息，2021年1月30日，京东方A（000725.SZ）发布了2020年业绩预告，2020年实现归母净利润48-51亿元，同比增长150-166%，实现扣非利润25-28亿元，去年同期为亏损11.67亿元。拆分来看，在2020第四季度单季，京东方实现归母净利23.24-26.24亿元，环比增长73.39%-95.78%；实现扣非净利16.12-19.12亿元，环比增长51.50%-79.70%，业绩增长符合预期。我们判断，环比同比实现高增的主要原因来自全球面板市场价格上涨与京东方投建产能的释放。并综合了市场的多面信息判断，京东方在近期出现的股价下挫并非是主营基本面出现问题所致，推断与美国国际贸易委员会对特定有源矩阵OLED显示设备及其组件启动337调查有关，这并非美国第一次对国产面板启动337调查（TCL电子，2020年10月），因此我们不认为这项调查会动摇京东方的基本面。要快速理解京东方业绩增长的动力，产能方面需分为两个角度：智能手机与电视大屏。与智能手机面板对应的是京东方的柔性AMOLED产品，结合此前2020半年报京东方电话会议的内容来看，京东方未来的布局重心也放在此处。不过虽然该业务已较2019年的产收大幅增长，但其产线尚处于爬坡期，即便已经与华为签订供应，但受下游绑定客户的销量下滑影响，这项业务的表现暂时也还有待成长。不过值得一提的是，京东方目前确实已经通过了苹果认证，后续能否出现在iPhone 13之上，还是一如既往地停留在传闻中，只能等到官方通报揭晓，不过如真能签下苹果，那么OLED的份额攀升将很快成为京东方苦苦寻找的“第二增长曲线”。电视大屏方面，2020年下半年以来，全球消费市场中对笔电、TV的需求因疫情居家而旺盛起来，带动IT/TV类面板出货加大，供应端","text":"“市场各尺寸的TV面板的价格涨幅已经超过65%。”作者：宁泊为编辑：tuya公司情报专家《财经涂鸦》消息，2021年1月30日，京东方A（000725.SZ）发布了2020年业绩预告，2020年实现归母净利润48-51亿元，同比增长150-166%，实现扣非利润25-28亿元，去年同期为亏损11.67亿元。拆分来看，在2020第四季度单季，京东方实现归母净利23.24-26.24亿元，环比增长73.39%-95.78%；实现扣非净利16.12-19.12亿元，环比增长51.50%-79.70%，业绩增长符合预期。我们判断，环比同比实现高增的主要原因来自全球面板市场价格上涨与京东方投建产能的释放。并综合了市场的多面信息判断，京东方在近期出现的股价下挫并非是主营基本面出现问题所致，推断与美国国际贸易委员会对特定有源矩阵OLED显示设备及其组件启动337调查有关，这并非美国第一次对国产面板启动337调查（TCL电子，2020年10月），因此我们不认为这项调查会动摇京东方的基本面。要快速理解京东方业绩增长的动力，产能方面需分为两个角度：智能手机与电视大屏。与智能手机面板对应的是京东方的柔性AMOLED产品，结合此前2020半年报京东方电话会议的内容来看，京东方未来的布局重心也放在此处。不过虽然该业务已较2019年的产收大幅增长，但其产线尚处于爬坡期，即便已经与华为签订供应，但受下游绑定客户的销量下滑影响，这项业务的表现暂时也还有待成长。不过值得一提的是，京东方目前确实已经通过了苹果认证，后续能否出现在iPhone 13之上，还是一如既往地停留在传闻中，只能等到官方通报揭晓，不过如真能签下苹果，那么OLED的份额攀升将很快成为京东方苦苦寻找的“第二增长曲线”。电视大屏方面，2020年下半年以来，全球消费市场中对笔电、TV的需求因疫情居家而旺盛起来，带动IT/TV类面板出货加大，供应端","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d98247f55d83b4e55c2f0019cbbd1e5","width":"641","height":"360"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314698778","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":339536488,"gmtCreate":1608909529744,"gmtModify":1703737337114,"author":{"id":"3570058627460962","authorId":"3570058627460962","name":"大汉双林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543f4098b129bdebbefab1ff0cc5cf0a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570058627460962","idStr":"3570058627460962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"With the apple track record , knowledge , strong design team , pool of engineering expert , strong balance sheet , I can’t see anything can stop apple venture into apple car segment .&nbsp;","listText":"With the apple track record , knowledge , strong design team , pool of engineering expert , strong balance sheet , I can’t see anything can stop apple venture into apple car segment .&nbsp;","text":"With the apple track record , knowledge , strong design team , pool of engineering expert , strong balance sheet , I can’t see anything can stop apple venture into apple car segment .","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339536488","repostId":"2093572755","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":330606064,"gmtCreate":1608595595858,"gmtModify":1703735628730,"author":{"id":"3570058627460962","authorId":"3570058627460962","name":"大汉双林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543f4098b129bdebbefab1ff0cc5cf0a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570058627460962","idStr":"3570058627460962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有惊无险的一天，科技与生物股不趺反升，趁女股神木头姐名气正旺，做为小股民的我们，就无脑的一昧跟风就好了！但须小心神话及市场泡沫破灭！切记!须无时rebalance !&nbsp;","listText":"有惊无险的一天，科技与生物股不趺反升，趁女股神木头姐名气正旺，做为小股民的我们，就无脑的一昧跟风就好了！但须小心神话及市场泡沫破灭！切记!须无时rebalance !&nbsp;","text":"有惊无险的一天，科技与生物股不趺反升，趁女股神木头姐名气正旺，做为小股民的我们，就无脑的一昧跟风就好了！但须小心神话及市场泡沫破灭！切记!须无时rebalance !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330606064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330152759,"gmtCreate":1608562409771,"gmtModify":1703735448826,"author":{"id":"3570058627460962","authorId":"3570058627460962","name":"大汉双林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543f4098b129bdebbefab1ff0cc5cf0a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570058627460962","idStr":"3570058627460962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ride the wave","listText":"Ride the wave","text":"Ride the wave","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330152759","repostId":"1131243485","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131243485","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1608556977,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131243485?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-21 21:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“投机浪潮”有多疯狂？看这8个指标就够了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131243485","media":"金十数据","summary":"上市热潮、股市大涨、期权热潮和比特币热潮都暴露出了一场前所未有的投机狂潮正席卷全球……\n\n华尔街以其疯狂的“动物精神”而闻名，但仔细分析一下数据会发现，这轮牛市可能会比看上去的还要“疯狂”。\n全球股票","content":"<blockquote>\n 上市热潮、股市大涨、期权热潮和比特币热潮都暴露出了一场前所未有的投机狂潮正席卷全球……\n</blockquote>\n<p>华尔街以其疯狂的“动物精神”而闻名，但仔细分析一下数据会发现，这轮牛市可能会比看上去的还要“疯狂”。</p>\n<p>全球股票市值目前约为100万亿美元。美国的公司IPO筹集了创纪录的1750亿美元，但现在有大约3万亿美元的公司债券的收益率为负。</p>\n<p>在疫情肆虐的情况下，经济周期一直岌岌可危，企业也受到新一轮封锁的打击。</p>\n<p>在看似无休止的货币政策刺激和人们对疫情后经济复苏的押注下，<b><u>短线交易员和机构投资者享受着历史上最宽松的金融环境。</u></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88b7b44dccbd57eb0c971884e0739b5\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p>瑞士日内瓦银行集团Reyl &amp; Cie的首席投资官Cedric Ozazman说：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “市场情绪指标显示市场预期乐观。由于担心错过圣诞前后的涨势，人们现在纷纷开始投资。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>以下是这一年里市场出现的泡沫迹象。</p>\n<p><b>01 上市热潮</b></p>\n<p>分析师认为，没有什么比上市热潮更能引起股市上涨了。</p>\n<p>外媒收集的数据显示，从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> Inc. 到Airbnb Inc. 的上市，美国今年首次公开募股（IPO）规模达到了创纪录的1750亿美元。</p>\n<p>2020年，为特殊目的收购公司的“空壳公司”（SPAC）通过上市所筹集的资金总额已达600多亿美元，比前十年的总和还要多。</p>\n<p>但投资者仍然觉得不够。</p>\n<p>据估计，今年美国IPO的平均首日回报率达到40%，是除1999年和2000年以外的最高水平。这引起了投资者们对追踪新上市公司的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IPO\">Renaissance IPO ETF</a>的兴趣 ，该基金今年以来的涨幅超过了100%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abe18074e8c4905d9b06ae2c8cfb725\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p>Bespoke Investment Group指出，即便是尚未宣布收购目标的SPAC，其股价也在2020年上涨了近20%。</p>\n<p>Bespoke的分析师在一份报告中表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “如果这还不是投资者情绪狂热的一种表现，那我们不知道这是什么了！”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>02 股市暴涨</b></p>\n<p>今年，美国股票交易平台Robinhood成为华尔街讨论的热门话题，散户对科技期权和航空公司股票的各种股票进行大规模的投机行动。</p>\n<p>随着散户投资者和机构投资者都在追逐上涨的股市，标普500目前的市盈率比2000年的最高值高出16%左右。</p>\n<p>不止标普500指数，整个美国股市都在上涨。</p>\n<p>罗素3000指数中被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>做空最多的一篮子股票本季度上涨了约40%，是大盘指数涨幅的三倍。高β系数的股票（即波动性更高的股票）与低波动性的股票相比，接近2011年以来的最高水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/027ff6637f0ca004d1f57a5c3e4690d8\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p>根据SentimenTrader的数据，罗素2000指数每次从低点上涨95%以上，在接下来的三个月里都会出现亏损，而目前该指数较3月份的低点已经上涨了约100%。</p>\n<p><b>03 期权热潮</b></p>\n<p>看涨的散户投资者不仅活跃于股市之中，今年还前所未有地进入到复杂的衍生品市场。过去20天，美国各交易所日均成交约2200万份看涨合约，创历史新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f09523e081aedb15c9bb7fc14b91382\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>的股票看跌看涨比率跌至近10年低点，这意味着投资者们是如此坚定地追逐个股的上涨。</p>\n<p><b>04 并购狂热</b></p>\n<p>公司间的并购狂热是投机热的另一个非常明显的迹象。</p>\n<p>继第三季度创下纪录后，本季度有望成为2016年以来交易撮合活动最强劲的季度。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">标普全球</a>股份有限公司收购IHS Markit，以及超微半导体公司收购Xilinx都是这些交易中的重头交易。</p>\n<p>鉴于近年来企业现金余额不断上升，而交易量占市值的比例仍低于长期平均水平，近期的交易活动可能只是个开始。</p>\n<p><b>05 欧洲IPO市场也变得疯狂</b></p>\n<p>即便是规模比美国小得多、很少首日就大涨的欧洲IPO市场，也变得疯狂起来。</p>\n<p>外媒的数据显示，自11月9日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>疫苗的消息引发了股市的牛市以来，在欧洲证券交易所上市的44家公司平均涨幅达16%。其中约70%的公司目前的股价高于当时IPO的价格。</p>\n<p>投资银行RBC Capital Markets的股权资本市场联合主席Darrell Uden表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “鉴于股票估值的上升，IPO再次成为保荐人可行的退出途径。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>06 信贷市场重新繁荣</b></p>\n<p>在有近18万亿美元债券的收益率为负的情况下，投资者被迫以历史新高的价格大量购买风险较高的公司债券。</p>\n<p>在美国，垃圾债券的收益率已大幅下跌，远低于今年早些时候评级较高的债券可以发行的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b41dded33ea4fa224e1c34c3d0fec59\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p>就连堕落天使号邮轮的运营商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL.UK\">嘉年华公司</a>（Carnival Corp.)今年也在逐步降低保费。目前收益率为负的公司债券的规模超过3万亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>07 新兴市场热闹非凡</b></p>\n<p>对于新兴市场国家来说，今年也是一个繁荣时期，在2020年超过7300亿美元的美元债券和欧元债券被发行，比以往任何一年都要多。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1cb30aa0dc142eecdcb8206a8bd07c3\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p>举几个典型的例子吧。</p>\n<p>即使是在政治动荡的情况下，秘鲁还是发行了债券，其收益率还是创下了发展中国家有史以来的新低。</p>\n<p>另外，尽管西非国家科特迪瓦参与了G20的债务减免计划和国际货币基金组织正在实施的计划，但该国以欧元计价的债券价格仍低于去年。</p>\n<p><b>08 比特币多头回归</b></p>\n<p>在支持比特币的人来说，随着一波新的资金涌入，比特币今年涨幅超过200%，这表明加密货币的时代已经到来。</p>\n<p>而对华尔街的许多人来说，这只是非理性繁荣的又一新迹象。Yardeni Research的分析师们在一份报告中写道：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “我们将比特币和其他加密货币视为‘数字领域的郁金香’。我们没有办法准确评估它们的价值。我们关注比特币的价格走势是因为我们把它作为衡量过度投机行为的标准。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caefe587fc35de86fd2e2b23ac1b0bd9\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p>对大多数人来说，比特币的波动性令人感觉它是“一剂难以下咽的药片”。但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NMR\">野村控股</a>等公司已经注意到，从家族理财办公室的专业人士到跟随投资浪潮的定量分析师，投资者们对比特币产生了大量兴趣。</p>\n<p>虚拟货币正在掀起一股对长期资产的投机浪潮，从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>公司的股票，投资者正在寻找未来能够稳定增长的股票。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“投机浪潮”有多疯狂？看这8个指标就够了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“投机浪潮”有多疯狂？看这8个指标就够了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-21 21:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/68420><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上市热潮、股市大涨、期权热潮和比特币热潮都暴露出了一场前所未有的投机狂潮正席卷全球……\n\n华尔街以其疯狂的“动物精神”而闻名，但仔细分析一下数据会发现，这轮牛市可能会比看上去的还要“疯狂”。\n全球股票市值目前约为100万亿美元。美国的公司IPO筹集了创纪录的1750亿美元，但现在有大约3万亿美元的公司债券的收益率为负。\n在疫情肆虐的情况下，经济周期一直岌岌可危，企业也受到新一轮封锁的打击。\n在看似...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/68420\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c56ea9f4571ab8517325db0c66a1a81","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/68420","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131243485","content_text":"上市热潮、股市大涨、期权热潮和比特币热潮都暴露出了一场前所未有的投机狂潮正席卷全球……\n\n华尔街以其疯狂的“动物精神”而闻名，但仔细分析一下数据会发现，这轮牛市可能会比看上去的还要“疯狂”。\n全球股票市值目前约为100万亿美元。美国的公司IPO筹集了创纪录的1750亿美元，但现在有大约3万亿美元的公司债券的收益率为负。\n在疫情肆虐的情况下，经济周期一直岌岌可危，企业也受到新一轮封锁的打击。\n在看似无休止的货币政策刺激和人们对疫情后经济复苏的押注下，短线交易员和机构投资者享受着历史上最宽松的金融环境。\n\n瑞士日内瓦银行集团Reyl & Cie的首席投资官Cedric Ozazman说：\n\n “市场情绪指标显示市场预期乐观。由于担心错过圣诞前后的涨势，人们现在纷纷开始投资。”\n\n以下是这一年里市场出现的泡沫迹象。\n01 上市热潮\n分析师认为，没有什么比上市热潮更能引起股市上涨了。\n外媒收集的数据显示，从Snowflake Inc. 到Airbnb Inc. 的上市，美国今年首次公开募股（IPO）规模达到了创纪录的1750亿美元。\n2020年，为特殊目的收购公司的“空壳公司”（SPAC）通过上市所筹集的资金总额已达600多亿美元，比前十年的总和还要多。\n但投资者仍然觉得不够。\n据估计，今年美国IPO的平均首日回报率达到40%，是除1999年和2000年以外的最高水平。这引起了投资者们对追踪新上市公司的Renaissance IPO ETF的兴趣 ，该基金今年以来的涨幅超过了100%。\n\nBespoke Investment Group指出，即便是尚未宣布收购目标的SPAC，其股价也在2020年上涨了近20%。\nBespoke的分析师在一份报告中表示：\n\n “如果这还不是投资者情绪狂热的一种表现，那我们不知道这是什么了！”\n\n02 股市暴涨\n今年，美国股票交易平台Robinhood成为华尔街讨论的热门话题，散户对科技期权和航空公司股票的各种股票进行大规模的投机行动。\n随着散户投资者和机构投资者都在追逐上涨的股市，标普500目前的市盈率比2000年的最高值高出16%左右。\n不止标普500指数，整个美国股市都在上涨。\n罗素3000指数中被高盛做空最多的一篮子股票本季度上涨了约40%，是大盘指数涨幅的三倍。高β系数的股票（即波动性更高的股票）与低波动性的股票相比，接近2011年以来的最高水平。\n\n根据SentimenTrader的数据，罗素2000指数每次从低点上涨95%以上，在接下来的三个月里都会出现亏损，而目前该指数较3月份的低点已经上涨了约100%。\n03 期权热潮\n看涨的散户投资者不仅活跃于股市之中，今年还前所未有地进入到复杂的衍生品市场。过去20天，美国各交易所日均成交约2200万份看涨合约，创历史新高。\n\n芝加哥期权交易所的股票看跌看涨比率跌至近10年低点，这意味着投资者们是如此坚定地追逐个股的上涨。\n04 并购狂热\n公司间的并购狂热是投机热的另一个非常明显的迹象。\n继第三季度创下纪录后，本季度有望成为2016年以来交易撮合活动最强劲的季度。标普全球股份有限公司收购IHS Markit，以及超微半导体公司收购Xilinx都是这些交易中的重头交易。\n鉴于近年来企业现金余额不断上升，而交易量占市值的比例仍低于长期平均水平，近期的交易活动可能只是个开始。\n05 欧洲IPO市场也变得疯狂\n即便是规模比美国小得多、很少首日就大涨的欧洲IPO市场，也变得疯狂起来。\n外媒的数据显示，自11月9日辉瑞疫苗的消息引发了股市的牛市以来，在欧洲证券交易所上市的44家公司平均涨幅达16%。其中约70%的公司目前的股价高于当时IPO的价格。\n投资银行RBC Capital Markets的股权资本市场联合主席Darrell Uden表示：\n\n “鉴于股票估值的上升，IPO再次成为保荐人可行的退出途径。”\n\n06 信贷市场重新繁荣\n在有近18万亿美元债券的收益率为负的情况下，投资者被迫以历史新高的价格大量购买风险较高的公司债券。\n在美国，垃圾债券的收益率已大幅下跌，远低于今年早些时候评级较高的债券可以发行的水平。\n\n就连堕落天使号邮轮的运营商嘉年华公司（Carnival Corp.)今年也在逐步降低保费。目前收益率为负的公司债券的规模超过3万亿美元。\n07 新兴市场热闹非凡\n对于新兴市场国家来说，今年也是一个繁荣时期，在2020年超过7300亿美元的美元债券和欧元债券被发行，比以往任何一年都要多。\n\n举几个典型的例子吧。\n即使是在政治动荡的情况下，秘鲁还是发行了债券，其收益率还是创下了发展中国家有史以来的新低。\n另外，尽管西非国家科特迪瓦参与了G20的债务减免计划和国际货币基金组织正在实施的计划，但该国以欧元计价的债券价格仍低于去年。\n08 比特币多头回归\n在支持比特币的人来说，随着一波新的资金涌入，比特币今年涨幅超过200%，这表明加密货币的时代已经到来。\n而对华尔街的许多人来说，这只是非理性繁荣的又一新迹象。Yardeni Research的分析师们在一份报告中写道：\n\n “我们将比特币和其他加密货币视为‘数字领域的郁金香’。我们没有办法准确评估它们的价值。我们关注比特币的价格走势是因为我们把它作为衡量过度投机行为的标准。”\n\n\n对大多数人来说，比特币的波动性令人感觉它是“一剂难以下咽的药片”。但摩根大通和野村控股等公司已经注意到，从家族理财办公室的专业人士到跟随投资浪潮的定量分析师，投资者们对比特币产生了大量兴趣。\n虚拟货币正在掀起一股对长期资产的投机浪潮，从太阳能到特斯拉公司的股票，投资者正在寻找未来能够稳定增长的股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":601498002,"gmtCreate":1638545278228,"gmtModify":1638545278293,"author":{"id":"3570058627460962","authorId":"3570058627460962","name":"大汉双林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543f4098b129bdebbefab1ff0cc5cf0a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570058627460962","idStr":"3570058627460962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up","listText":"Up up up","text":"Up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601498002","repostId":"1192973257","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192973257","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638542620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192973257?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 22:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba shares fell nearly 9%, hitting a 52 week low<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价跌近9%创52周新低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192973257","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Alibaba shares fell nearly 9%&nbsp;in morning trading, hitting a 52 week low.","content":"<p>Alibaba shares fell nearly 9%&nbsp;in morning trading, hitting a 52 week low.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价早盘下跌近9%，创52周新低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bffdf13d46c5b423e7d19ca33abd1d05\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba shares fell nearly 9%, hitting a 52 week low<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价跌近9%创52周新低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba shares fell nearly 9%, hitting a 52 week low<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价跌近9%创52周新低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-03 22:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Alibaba shares fell nearly 9%&nbsp;in morning trading, hitting a 52 week low.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价早盘下跌近9%，创52周新低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bffdf13d46c5b423e7d19ca33abd1d05\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192973257","content_text":"Alibaba shares fell nearly 9% in morning trading, hitting a 52 week low.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382050952,"gmtCreate":1613313037676,"gmtModify":1631890842134,"author":{"id":"3570058627460962","authorId":"3570058627460962","name":"大汉双林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543f4098b129bdebbefab1ff0cc5cf0a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570058627460962","idStr":"3570058627460962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Baby step","listText":"Baby step","text":"Baby step","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e58c76ee92d30c1deac4f9ceda928aa2","width":"750","height":"2244"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382050952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":330152759,"gmtCreate":1608562409771,"gmtModify":1703735448826,"author":{"id":"3570058627460962","authorId":"3570058627460962","name":"大汉双林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543f4098b129bdebbefab1ff0cc5cf0a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570058627460962","idStr":"3570058627460962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ride the wave","listText":"Ride the wave","text":"Ride the wave","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330152759","repostId":"1131243485","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131243485","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1608556977,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131243485?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-21 21:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“投机浪潮”有多疯狂？看这8个指标就够了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131243485","media":"金十数据","summary":"上市热潮、股市大涨、期权热潮和比特币热潮都暴露出了一场前所未有的投机狂潮正席卷全球……\n\n华尔街以其疯狂的“动物精神”而闻名，但仔细分析一下数据会发现，这轮牛市可能会比看上去的还要“疯狂”。\n全球股票","content":"<blockquote>\n 上市热潮、股市大涨、期权热潮和比特币热潮都暴露出了一场前所未有的投机狂潮正席卷全球……\n</blockquote>\n<p>华尔街以其疯狂的“动物精神”而闻名，但仔细分析一下数据会发现，这轮牛市可能会比看上去的还要“疯狂”。</p>\n<p>全球股票市值目前约为100万亿美元。美国的公司IPO筹集了创纪录的1750亿美元，但现在有大约3万亿美元的公司债券的收益率为负。</p>\n<p>在疫情肆虐的情况下，经济周期一直岌岌可危，企业也受到新一轮封锁的打击。</p>\n<p>在看似无休止的货币政策刺激和人们对疫情后经济复苏的押注下，<b><u>短线交易员和机构投资者享受着历史上最宽松的金融环境。</u></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88b7b44dccbd57eb0c971884e0739b5\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p>瑞士日内瓦银行集团Reyl &amp; Cie的首席投资官Cedric Ozazman说：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “市场情绪指标显示市场预期乐观。由于担心错过圣诞前后的涨势，人们现在纷纷开始投资。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>以下是这一年里市场出现的泡沫迹象。</p>\n<p><b>01 上市热潮</b></p>\n<p>分析师认为，没有什么比上市热潮更能引起股市上涨了。</p>\n<p>外媒收集的数据显示，从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> Inc. 到Airbnb Inc. 的上市，美国今年首次公开募股（IPO）规模达到了创纪录的1750亿美元。</p>\n<p>2020年，为特殊目的收购公司的“空壳公司”（SPAC）通过上市所筹集的资金总额已达600多亿美元，比前十年的总和还要多。</p>\n<p>但投资者仍然觉得不够。</p>\n<p>据估计，今年美国IPO的平均首日回报率达到40%，是除1999年和2000年以外的最高水平。这引起了投资者们对追踪新上市公司的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IPO\">Renaissance IPO ETF</a>的兴趣 ，该基金今年以来的涨幅超过了100%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abe18074e8c4905d9b06ae2c8cfb725\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p>Bespoke Investment Group指出，即便是尚未宣布收购目标的SPAC，其股价也在2020年上涨了近20%。</p>\n<p>Bespoke的分析师在一份报告中表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “如果这还不是投资者情绪狂热的一种表现，那我们不知道这是什么了！”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>02 股市暴涨</b></p>\n<p>今年，美国股票交易平台Robinhood成为华尔街讨论的热门话题，散户对科技期权和航空公司股票的各种股票进行大规模的投机行动。</p>\n<p>随着散户投资者和机构投资者都在追逐上涨的股市，标普500目前的市盈率比2000年的最高值高出16%左右。</p>\n<p>不止标普500指数，整个美国股市都在上涨。</p>\n<p>罗素3000指数中被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>做空最多的一篮子股票本季度上涨了约40%，是大盘指数涨幅的三倍。高β系数的股票（即波动性更高的股票）与低波动性的股票相比，接近2011年以来的最高水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/027ff6637f0ca004d1f57a5c3e4690d8\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p>根据SentimenTrader的数据，罗素2000指数每次从低点上涨95%以上，在接下来的三个月里都会出现亏损，而目前该指数较3月份的低点已经上涨了约100%。</p>\n<p><b>03 期权热潮</b></p>\n<p>看涨的散户投资者不仅活跃于股市之中，今年还前所未有地进入到复杂的衍生品市场。过去20天，美国各交易所日均成交约2200万份看涨合约，创历史新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f09523e081aedb15c9bb7fc14b91382\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>的股票看跌看涨比率跌至近10年低点，这意味着投资者们是如此坚定地追逐个股的上涨。</p>\n<p><b>04 并购狂热</b></p>\n<p>公司间的并购狂热是投机热的另一个非常明显的迹象。</p>\n<p>继第三季度创下纪录后，本季度有望成为2016年以来交易撮合活动最强劲的季度。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">标普全球</a>股份有限公司收购IHS Markit，以及超微半导体公司收购Xilinx都是这些交易中的重头交易。</p>\n<p>鉴于近年来企业现金余额不断上升，而交易量占市值的比例仍低于长期平均水平，近期的交易活动可能只是个开始。</p>\n<p><b>05 欧洲IPO市场也变得疯狂</b></p>\n<p>即便是规模比美国小得多、很少首日就大涨的欧洲IPO市场，也变得疯狂起来。</p>\n<p>外媒的数据显示，自11月9日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>疫苗的消息引发了股市的牛市以来，在欧洲证券交易所上市的44家公司平均涨幅达16%。其中约70%的公司目前的股价高于当时IPO的价格。</p>\n<p>投资银行RBC Capital Markets的股权资本市场联合主席Darrell Uden表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “鉴于股票估值的上升，IPO再次成为保荐人可行的退出途径。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>06 信贷市场重新繁荣</b></p>\n<p>在有近18万亿美元债券的收益率为负的情况下，投资者被迫以历史新高的价格大量购买风险较高的公司债券。</p>\n<p>在美国，垃圾债券的收益率已大幅下跌，远低于今年早些时候评级较高的债券可以发行的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b41dded33ea4fa224e1c34c3d0fec59\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p>就连堕落天使号邮轮的运营商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL.UK\">嘉年华公司</a>（Carnival Corp.)今年也在逐步降低保费。目前收益率为负的公司债券的规模超过3万亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>07 新兴市场热闹非凡</b></p>\n<p>对于新兴市场国家来说，今年也是一个繁荣时期，在2020年超过7300亿美元的美元债券和欧元债券被发行，比以往任何一年都要多。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1cb30aa0dc142eecdcb8206a8bd07c3\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p>举几个典型的例子吧。</p>\n<p>即使是在政治动荡的情况下，秘鲁还是发行了债券，其收益率还是创下了发展中国家有史以来的新低。</p>\n<p>另外，尽管西非国家科特迪瓦参与了G20的债务减免计划和国际货币基金组织正在实施的计划，但该国以欧元计价的债券价格仍低于去年。</p>\n<p><b>08 比特币多头回归</b></p>\n<p>在支持比特币的人来说，随着一波新的资金涌入，比特币今年涨幅超过200%，这表明加密货币的时代已经到来。</p>\n<p>而对华尔街的许多人来说，这只是非理性繁荣的又一新迹象。Yardeni Research的分析师们在一份报告中写道：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “我们将比特币和其他加密货币视为‘数字领域的郁金香’。我们没有办法准确评估它们的价值。我们关注比特币的价格走势是因为我们把它作为衡量过度投机行为的标准。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caefe587fc35de86fd2e2b23ac1b0bd9\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p>对大多数人来说，比特币的波动性令人感觉它是“一剂难以下咽的药片”。但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NMR\">野村控股</a>等公司已经注意到，从家族理财办公室的专业人士到跟随投资浪潮的定量分析师，投资者们对比特币产生了大量兴趣。</p>\n<p>虚拟货币正在掀起一股对长期资产的投机浪潮，从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>公司的股票，投资者正在寻找未来能够稳定增长的股票。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“投机浪潮”有多疯狂？看这8个指标就够了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“投机浪潮”有多疯狂？看这8个指标就够了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-21 21:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/68420><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上市热潮、股市大涨、期权热潮和比特币热潮都暴露出了一场前所未有的投机狂潮正席卷全球……\n\n华尔街以其疯狂的“动物精神”而闻名，但仔细分析一下数据会发现，这轮牛市可能会比看上去的还要“疯狂”。\n全球股票市值目前约为100万亿美元。美国的公司IPO筹集了创纪录的1750亿美元，但现在有大约3万亿美元的公司债券的收益率为负。\n在疫情肆虐的情况下，经济周期一直岌岌可危，企业也受到新一轮封锁的打击。\n在看似...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/68420\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c56ea9f4571ab8517325db0c66a1a81","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/68420","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131243485","content_text":"上市热潮、股市大涨、期权热潮和比特币热潮都暴露出了一场前所未有的投机狂潮正席卷全球……\n\n华尔街以其疯狂的“动物精神”而闻名，但仔细分析一下数据会发现，这轮牛市可能会比看上去的还要“疯狂”。\n全球股票市值目前约为100万亿美元。美国的公司IPO筹集了创纪录的1750亿美元，但现在有大约3万亿美元的公司债券的收益率为负。\n在疫情肆虐的情况下，经济周期一直岌岌可危，企业也受到新一轮封锁的打击。\n在看似无休止的货币政策刺激和人们对疫情后经济复苏的押注下，短线交易员和机构投资者享受着历史上最宽松的金融环境。\n\n瑞士日内瓦银行集团Reyl & Cie的首席投资官Cedric Ozazman说：\n\n “市场情绪指标显示市场预期乐观。由于担心错过圣诞前后的涨势，人们现在纷纷开始投资。”\n\n以下是这一年里市场出现的泡沫迹象。\n01 上市热潮\n分析师认为，没有什么比上市热潮更能引起股市上涨了。\n外媒收集的数据显示，从Snowflake Inc. 到Airbnb Inc. 的上市，美国今年首次公开募股（IPO）规模达到了创纪录的1750亿美元。\n2020年，为特殊目的收购公司的“空壳公司”（SPAC）通过上市所筹集的资金总额已达600多亿美元，比前十年的总和还要多。\n但投资者仍然觉得不够。\n据估计，今年美国IPO的平均首日回报率达到40%，是除1999年和2000年以外的最高水平。这引起了投资者们对追踪新上市公司的Renaissance IPO ETF的兴趣 ，该基金今年以来的涨幅超过了100%。\n\nBespoke Investment Group指出，即便是尚未宣布收购目标的SPAC，其股价也在2020年上涨了近20%。\nBespoke的分析师在一份报告中表示：\n\n “如果这还不是投资者情绪狂热的一种表现，那我们不知道这是什么了！”\n\n02 股市暴涨\n今年，美国股票交易平台Robinhood成为华尔街讨论的热门话题，散户对科技期权和航空公司股票的各种股票进行大规模的投机行动。\n随着散户投资者和机构投资者都在追逐上涨的股市，标普500目前的市盈率比2000年的最高值高出16%左右。\n不止标普500指数，整个美国股市都在上涨。\n罗素3000指数中被高盛做空最多的一篮子股票本季度上涨了约40%，是大盘指数涨幅的三倍。高β系数的股票（即波动性更高的股票）与低波动性的股票相比，接近2011年以来的最高水平。\n\n根据SentimenTrader的数据，罗素2000指数每次从低点上涨95%以上，在接下来的三个月里都会出现亏损，而目前该指数较3月份的低点已经上涨了约100%。\n03 期权热潮\n看涨的散户投资者不仅活跃于股市之中，今年还前所未有地进入到复杂的衍生品市场。过去20天，美国各交易所日均成交约2200万份看涨合约，创历史新高。\n\n芝加哥期权交易所的股票看跌看涨比率跌至近10年低点，这意味着投资者们是如此坚定地追逐个股的上涨。\n04 并购狂热\n公司间的并购狂热是投机热的另一个非常明显的迹象。\n继第三季度创下纪录后，本季度有望成为2016年以来交易撮合活动最强劲的季度。标普全球股份有限公司收购IHS Markit，以及超微半导体公司收购Xilinx都是这些交易中的重头交易。\n鉴于近年来企业现金余额不断上升，而交易量占市值的比例仍低于长期平均水平，近期的交易活动可能只是个开始。\n05 欧洲IPO市场也变得疯狂\n即便是规模比美国小得多、很少首日就大涨的欧洲IPO市场，也变得疯狂起来。\n外媒的数据显示，自11月9日辉瑞疫苗的消息引发了股市的牛市以来，在欧洲证券交易所上市的44家公司平均涨幅达16%。其中约70%的公司目前的股价高于当时IPO的价格。\n投资银行RBC Capital Markets的股权资本市场联合主席Darrell Uden表示：\n\n “鉴于股票估值的上升，IPO再次成为保荐人可行的退出途径。”\n\n06 信贷市场重新繁荣\n在有近18万亿美元债券的收益率为负的情况下，投资者被迫以历史新高的价格大量购买风险较高的公司债券。\n在美国，垃圾债券的收益率已大幅下跌，远低于今年早些时候评级较高的债券可以发行的水平。\n\n就连堕落天使号邮轮的运营商嘉年华公司（Carnival Corp.)今年也在逐步降低保费。目前收益率为负的公司债券的规模超过3万亿美元。\n07 新兴市场热闹非凡\n对于新兴市场国家来说，今年也是一个繁荣时期，在2020年超过7300亿美元的美元债券和欧元债券被发行，比以往任何一年都要多。\n\n举几个典型的例子吧。\n即使是在政治动荡的情况下，秘鲁还是发行了债券，其收益率还是创下了发展中国家有史以来的新低。\n另外，尽管西非国家科特迪瓦参与了G20的债务减免计划和国际货币基金组织正在实施的计划，但该国以欧元计价的债券价格仍低于去年。\n08 比特币多头回归\n在支持比特币的人来说，随着一波新的资金涌入，比特币今年涨幅超过200%，这表明加密货币的时代已经到来。\n而对华尔街的许多人来说，这只是非理性繁荣的又一新迹象。Yardeni Research的分析师们在一份报告中写道：\n\n 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