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股池之蛙

股池之蛙

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2021-11-12

$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$昨天赚了20%跑了，等他估计合理时再来。

2024-07-24

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 就是不卖，看你今天跌成啥样？

2024-07-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 一次像样的反弹都没有！

2024-07-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 爆跌即将到来！

2024-07-06

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 坚定长期持有特斯拉。

2025-12-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 神经，每天暴涨暴跌

2025-12-17

比亚迪算什么，完全不是一个层次

2025-10-24

你醒来看看吧，估计你要哭晕！[开心]

2024-10-17

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 每天下午就跳水！MD

2024-07-20

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 开始反弹，希望持续

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神经，每天暴涨暴跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512195292722072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511813849621696,"gmtCreate":1765981594464,"gmtModify":1765981597134,"author":{"id":"3569990651722550","authorId":"3569990651722550","name":"股池之蛙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a44b2262c36f98ef5b478294b12a17a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569990651722550","idStr":"3569990651722550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"比亚迪算什么，完全不是一个层次","listText":"比亚迪算什么，完全不是一个层次","text":"比亚迪算什么，完全不是一个层次","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511813849621696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":492460192002344,"gmtCreate":1761250460237,"gmtModify":1761250462820,"author":{"id":"3569990651722550","authorId":"3569990651722550","name":"股池之蛙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a44b2262c36f98ef5b478294b12a17a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569990651722550","idStr":"3569990651722550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你醒来看看吧，估计你要哭晕！[开心]","listText":"你醒来看看吧，估计你要哭晕！[开心]","text":"你醒来看看吧，估计你要哭晕！[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/492460192002344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":402242391007704,"gmtCreate":1739221959014,"gmtModify":1739221961055,"author":{"id":"3569990651722550","authorId":"3569990651722550","name":"股池之蛙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a44b2262c36f98ef5b478294b12a17a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569990651722550","idStr":"3569990651722550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"扯！","listText":"扯！","text":"扯！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/402242391007704","repostId":"2510864468","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2510864468","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1739203260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2510864468?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-11 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cms-style=\"font-L\">潘梓正，是DeepSeek多模态团队的第4位多工程师，在开发DeepSeek的R1模型方面发挥了重要作用。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">回国之前，他在英伟达实习过4个月，而且拿到了英伟达的全职邀约。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Graham Allison认为潘梓正之所以如此，是因为硅谷公司未能在美国为他提供这样做的机会。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">这种“人才流失”，让Graham Allison痛心疾首，甚至将潘梓正回国提升到钱学森归国的高度！</p><div><img cms-height=\"852.562\" cms-width=\"661\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250211/399/w873h1126/20250211/5dfc-5510cc0815601e6cf974d09350e0fd34.jpg\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">像钱学森、黄仁勋以及马斯克这样的的超级人才可以用脚投票，可以在任何地方施展才华、大张宏图。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">他认为，美国应该尽力避免这样的“人才流失”：</p><blockquote><p cms-style=\"font-L\">美国的大学教练，在寻找并招募世界上最有才华的运动员。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">在中美科技竞争中，美国应该尽一切努力避免失去更多的钱学森和潘梓正这样的人才。</p></blockquote><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"><font cms-style=\"font-L align-Center color30\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center color30\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center color30\">英伟达憾失人才</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">英伟达的高级研究科学家禹之鼎，在得知DeepSeek超越ChatGPT登顶App Store后，分享了当时的实习生潘梓正回国的选择，对他现在取得的成就感到高兴，并分享了对AI竞争的观点：</p><div><img cms-height=\"257.438\" cms-width=\"661\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250211/413/w873h340/20250211/addb-d8ed23cbee0d75797a8182a2d423ed6c.jpg\"/><span></span></div><blockquote><p cms-style=\"font-L\">在2023年夏季，梓正是英伟达的实习生。后来，当我们考虑是否给他提供全职工作时，他毫不犹豫地选择了加入 DeepSeek。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">当时，DeepSeek的多模态团队只有3个人。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">梓正当时的决定，至今我仍印象深刻。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">在DeepSeek，他做出了重要贡献，参与了包括DeepSeek-VL2、DeepSeek-V3和DeepSeek-R1等多个关键项目。我个人对他的决定和所取得的成就感到非常高兴。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">梓正的案例是我近年来看到的一个典型例子。很多最优秀的人才都来自中国，而这些人才并不一定只能在美国公司取得成功。相反，我们从他们身上学到了很多东西。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">早在2022年的自动驾驶（AV）领域，类似的“斯普特尼克时刻”就已经发生过，并且将在<span>机器人</span><span></span>技术和大语言模型（LLM）行业继续发生。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">我热爱英伟达，并希望看到它继续成为AGI和通用自主系统发展的重要推动力。但如果我们继续编织地缘政治议程，制造对中国研究人员的敌对情绪，我们只会自毁前程，失去更多的竞争力。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">我们需要更多的优秀人才、更高的专业水平、更强的学习能力、创造力以及更强的执行力。</p></blockquote><div><img cms-height=\"292.547\" cms-width=\"661\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250211/758/w1080h478/20250211/7582-7277c91f14f39d42d1ce2316015d3c85.jpg\"/><span>潘梓正是DeepSeek-VL2的共同一作</span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">在DeepSeek超越ChatGPT登顶App Store下载榜第一时，潘梓正在X上分享了自己的感受：</p><div><img cms-height=\"410.609\" cms-width=\"376.75\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250211/237/w879h958/20250211/eba4-0e6f1de7f1eafb2a4326074166ab334d.jpg\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">潘梓正2024年全职加入DeepSeek，担任研究员。他曾在英伟达AI算法组担任研究实习生。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">2021年，潘梓正加入蒙纳士大学（Monash University）ZIP Lab攻读计算机科学博士，导师是Bohan Zhuang教授和Jianfei Cai教授。在此之前，他分别获得阿德莱德大学（University of Adelaide）计算机科学硕士和哈尔滨工业大学（威海）软件工程学士学位。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">在博士期间，潘梓正的研究兴趣主要集中在深度神经网络的效率方面，包括模型部署、Transformer架构优化、注意力机制、 推理加速和内存高效的训练。</font><font cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"></font></p><div><img cms-height=\"283.375\" cms-width=\"661\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250211/743/w1080h463/20250211/4eb2-d0622bb643202f7e28e070ecb9bef618.jpg\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"></font>Lex Fridman硬核播客，揭秘中国AI新星如何撼动全球格局</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">就在最近，Lex Fridman放出了一期长达5小时的播客，邀请了AI2的模型训练专家Nathan Lambert和Semianalysis硬件专家Dylan Patel。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">在这期信息量爆棚的谈话中，他们全程聚焦DeepSeek，讨论了这颗中国AI新星如何撼动全球格局、MoE架构+MLA的技术双刃、DeepSeek开源倒逼行业开放进程、中国式极限优化之道的硬件魔术等。</p><div><img cms-height=\"372.125\" cms-width=\"661\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250211/88/w1080h608/20250211/4479-2f6ca192a4e579a29174421c7fe08285.jpg\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"><font cms-style=\"font-L align-Center color30\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center color30\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center color30\">DeepSeek到底用没用OpenAI数据</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">这次，几位大佬的谈话内容可谓相当犀利，直指问题核心。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">比如这个关键问题：DeepSeek究竟用没用OpenAI的数据？</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">此前，OpenAI公开表示，DeepSeek使用了自家的模型蒸馏。</p><div><img cms-height=\"89.9688\" cms-width=\"661\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250211/427/w1080h147/20250211/8005-b32bf966f320ccbd66d0568a609b0eb5.jpg\"/><span>《金融时报》干脆说，“OpenAI有证据表明DeepSeek用了他们的模型来进行训练”</span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">这在道德和法律上站得住脚吗？</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">虽然OpenAI的服务条款规定，不许用户使用自家模型的输出来构建竞争对手。但这个所谓的规则，其实正是OpenAI虚伪的体现。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Lex Fridman表示：他们和大多数公司一样，本来就是在未经许可（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">金麒麟</a>分析师）的情况下，使用互联网上的数据进行训练，并从中受益的。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">大佬们一致认为，OpenAI声称DeepSeek用其模型训练，就是在试图转移话题、让自己独赢。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">而且，过去几天还有很多人把DeepSeek的模型蒸馏到Llama中，因前者在推理上运行很复杂，而Llama很容易提供服务，这违法吗？</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center color30\">DeepSeek的训练成本，为何如此之低</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Dylan Patel表示，DeepSeek的成本涉及两项关键的技术：一个是MoE，一个就是MLA（多头潜注意力）。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">MOE架构的优势在于，一方面，模型可以将数据嵌入到更大的参数空间中，另一方面，在训练或推理时，模型只需要激活其中一部分参数，从而大大提升效率。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">DeepSeek模型拥有超过6000亿个参数，相比之下，Llama 405B有4050亿参数。从参数规模上看，DeepSeek模型拥有更大的信息压缩空间，可以容纳更多的世界知识。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">但与此同时，DeepSeek模型每次只激活约370亿个参数。也就是说，在训练或推理过程中，只需要计算370亿个参数。相比之下，Llama 405B模型每次推理却需要激活4050亿个参数。</p><div><img cms-height=\"531.859\" cms-width=\"661\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250211/349/w1080h869/20250211/66b8-5d72d73adbb57e6df0b6f08a234bfc65.jpg\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">MLA主要用于减少推理过程中的内存占用，在训练过程也是如此，它利用了一些巧妙的低秩近似数学技巧。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Nathan Lambert表示，深入研究潜注意力的细节，会发现DeepSeek在模型实现方面下了很大功夫。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">因为，除了注意力机制，语言模型还有其他组件，例如用于扩展上下文长度的嵌入。DeepSeek采用的是旋转位置编码（RoPE）。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">将RoPE与传统的MoE结合使用，需要进行一系列操作，例如，将两个注意力矩阵进行复数旋转，这涉及到矩阵乘法。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">DeepSeek的MLA架构由于需要一些巧妙的设计，因此实现的复杂性大大增加。而他们成功地将这些技术整合在一起，这表明DeepSeek在高效语言模型训练方面走在了前沿。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Dylan Patel表示，DeepSeek想方设法提高模型训练效率。其中一个方法就是不直接调用NVIDIA的NCCL库，而是自行调度GPU之间的通信。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">DeepSeek的独特之处在于，他们通过调度特定的SM（流式多处理器）来管理GPU通信。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">DeepSeek会精细地控制哪些SM核心负责模型计算，哪些核心负责allreduce或allgather通信，并在它们之间进行动态切换。这需要极其高深的编程技巧。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"><font cms-style=\"font-L align-Center color30\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center color30\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center color30\">DeepSeek为何如此便宜</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">在所有声称提供R1服务的公司中，定价都远高于DeepSeek API，而且大多服务无法正常工作，吞吐量极低。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">让大佬们震惊的是，一方面中国取得了这种能力，另一方面价格如此之低。（R1的价格，比o1便宜27倍）</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">训练为什么便宜，上文已经提到。为什么推理成本也这么低呢？</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">首先，就是DeepSeek在模型架构上的创新。MLA这种全新的注意力机制，跟Transformer注意力机制不同。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">这种多头潜注意力，可以将注意力机制的内存占用减少大约80%到90%，尤其有助于处理长上下文。</p><div><img cms-height=\"273.578\" cms-width=\"661\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250211/727/w1080h447/20250211/0f73-4df55fde453b6089c88fedf05d7027ac.jpg\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">而且，DeepSeek和OpenAI的服务成本有巨大差异，部分原因是OpenAI的利润率非常高，推理的毛利率超过了75%。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">因为OpenAI目前是亏损的，在训练上花费了太多，因此推理的利润率很高。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">接下来亮点来了，几位大佬放飞想象，猜测这会不会是一种阴谋论：DeepSeek精心策划了这次发布和定价，做空英伟达和美国公司的股票，配合星际之门的发布……</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">但这种猜测立马遭到了反驳，Dylan Patel表示，他们只是赶在农历新年前把产品尽快发布而已，并没有没有打算搞个大的，否则为什么选在圣诞节后一天发布V3呢？</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"><font cms-style=\"font-L align-Center color30\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center color30\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center color30\">中国的工业能力，已经远超美国</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">美国无疑在GPU等芯片领域领先于中国。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">不过，对GPU出口管制，就能完全阻止中国吗？不太可能。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Dylan Patel认为，美国政府也清楚地认识到这一点， 而Nathan Lambert认为中国会制造自己的芯片。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">中国可能拥有更多的人才、更多的STEM毕业生、更多的程序员。美国当然也可以利用世界各地的人才，但这未必能让美国有额外的优势。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">真正重要的是计算能力。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">中国拥有的电力总和，数量已经惊人。</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">中国的钢铁厂，其规模相当于整个美国工业的总和，此外还有需要庞大电力的铝厂。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">即使美国的星际之门真的建成，达到2吉瓦电力，仍小于中国最大的工业设施。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">就这么说吧，如果中国建造世界上最大的数据中心，只要有芯片，马上就能做到。</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">所以这只是一个时间问题，而不是能力问题。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">现在，发电、输电、变电站以及变压器等构建数据中心所需的东西，都将制约美国构建越来越大的训练系统，以及部署越来越多的推理计算能力。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">相比之下，如果中国继续坚信Scaling Law，就像纳德拉、扎克伯格和劈柴等美国高管那样，甚至可以比美国更快地实现。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">因此，为了减缓中国AI技术的发展，确保AGI无法被大规模训练，美国出台了一系列禁令——通过限制GPU、光刻机等关键要素的出口，意图“封杀”整个半导体产业。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center color30\">OpenAI o3-Mini能追上DeepSeek R1吗？</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">接下来，几位大佬对几个明星推理模型进行了实测。</p><div><img cms-height=\"241.75\" cms-width=\"661\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250211/675/w1080h395/20250211/bd33-83d3bf4a8b00f6ed0c4dacee57697bc1.jpg\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">有趣的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>的Gemini Flash Thinking，无论从价格还是性能上来看都优于R1，而且在去年12月初就发布了，然而却无人关心……</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">对此，几位大佬的体感是，它的行为模式不如o1那样富有表现力，应用场景较窄。o1在特定任务上可能不是最完美，但灵活性和通用性更强。</p><div><img cms-height=\"231.969\" cms-width=\"661\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250211/659/w1080h379/20250211/a117-8eef17c10079d1870f774a32ddbcf6c7.jpg\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Lex Frieman则表示，自己个人非常喜欢R1的一点，是它会展示完整的思维链token。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">在开放式的哲学问题中，我们作为能欣赏智能、推理和反思能力的人类，阅读R1的原始思维链token，会感受到一种独特的美感。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">这种非线性的思维过程，类似于詹姆斯·乔伊斯的意识流小说《尤利西斯》和《芬尼根的守灵夜》，令人着迷。</p><div><img cms-height=\"474.328\" cms-width=\"661\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250211/255/w1080h775/20250211/737d-a723f7bfb2ae0c5ef8b1e6306e361d13.jpg\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">相比之下，o3-mini给人的感觉是聪明、快速，但缺乏亮点，往往比较平庸，缺乏深度和新意。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">从下图中可以看到，从GPT-3到GPT-3.5，再到Llama，推理成本呈指数级下降趋势。</p><div><img cms-height=\"392.922\" cms-width=\"661\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250211/122/w1080h642/20250211/c5f4-3a39951de35fc4d4b53720267a23392d.jpg\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">DeepSeek R1是第一个达到如此低成本的推理模型，这个成就很了不起，不过，它的成本水平并没有超出专家们预期的范围。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">而在未来，随着模型架构的创新、更高质量的训练数据、更先进的训练技术，以及更高效的推理系统和硬件（比如新一代GPU和ASIC芯片），AI模型的推理成本还会持续下降。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">最终，这将解锁AGI的潜力。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center color30\">谁将赢得AGI竞赛</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">最后，几位大佬预测了一番，谁将是AGI竞赛的最终赢家。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">谷歌似乎是领跑者，因为拥有基础设施优势。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">但在舆论场上，OpenAI似乎是领先者。它在商业化方面已经走在了最前面，拥有目前AI领域最高的收入。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">目前，谁究竟在AI领域赚到钱了，有人盈利了吗？</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">大佬们盘了盘后发现，从财务报表上看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>在AI领域已经实现了盈利，但在基础设施方面已经投入了巨额资本支出。</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">谷歌、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>也是如此。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Meta获取的巨额利润来自于推荐系统，并非来自Llama等大模型。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">Anthropic和OpenAI显然还没盈利，否则就不需要继续融资了。不过单从营收和成本来看，GPT-4已经开始盈利了，因为它的训练成本只有几亿美元。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">最终，谁都无法预料，OpenAI是否会突然陨落。不过目前，各家公司还会继续融资，因为一旦AGI到来，AI带来的回报难以估量。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">人们可能并不需要OpenAI花费数十亿美元，去研发“下一个最先进的模型”，只需要ChatGPT级别的AI服务就足够了。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">推理、代码生成、AI智能体、计算机使用，这些都是AI未来真正有价值的应用领域。谁不发力，谁就可能被市场淘汰。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">参考资料：</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">https://youtu.be/_1f-o0nqpEI</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">https://x.com/GrahamTAllison/status/1885442402833621426</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">https://x.com/ZhidingYu/status/1883958911839133894</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">来源：新智元</p><p>（转自：中国地产基金百人会）</p>\n<div></div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达憾失DeepSeek关键人才？美国放走AI“钱学森”，哈佛教授痛心疾首</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达憾失DeepSeek关键人才？美国放走AI“钱学森”，哈佛教授痛心疾首\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-11 00:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2025-02-11/doc-ineizrax3834718.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【新智元导读】最近，一位哈佛教授痛心疾首地曝出，DeepSeek本来有机会诞生在美国？原本DeepSeek的工程师可以拿到英伟达的全职offer，美国却没有将他留住，导致“钱学森回国”的故事再一次上演，美国跟“国运级AI”擦肩而过！DeepSeek给美国造成的威胁，还在加剧。就在昨天，DeepSeek的日活数已经达到ChatGPT的23%，每日应用下载量接近500万！a16z联创Marc ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2025-02-11/doc-ineizrax3834718.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2025-02-11/doc-ineizrax3834718.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2510864468","content_text":"【新智元导读】最近，一位哈佛教授痛心疾首地曝出，DeepSeek本来有机会诞生在美国？原本DeepSeek的工程师可以拿到英伟达的全职offer，美国却没有将他留住，导致“钱学森回国”的故事再一次上演，美国跟“国运级AI”擦肩而过！DeepSeek给美国造成的威胁，还在加剧。就在昨天，DeepSeek的日活数已经达到ChatGPT的23%，每日应用下载量接近500万！a16z联创Marc Andreessen发文谁能想到，做出DeepSeek关键贡献的人才，本来是可能留在美国的。最近哈佛大学教授曝出这一惊人事实：DeepSeek多模态团队的第4位工程师，本来可以拿到英伟达的全职offer。然而最终，他选择归国加入DeepSeek，由此的后果就是，美国在AI领域的主导地位被动摇，相关公司市值蒸发一万亿，全球AI格局也被彻底掀翻。这种结果是阴错阳差，还是一种必然？美国错失DeepSeek，让“钱学森”再次回国近日，政治学家、哈佛大学教授、前国防计划助理部长Graham Allison，在X上提问：“谁曾错失了DeepSeek”？他在X痛心发帖称，DeepSeek已刷新对美国AI地位的认知，而美国原本有机会留住DeepSeek的关键员工之一潘梓正（Zizheng Pan）：（DeepSeek超越OpenAI相关模型）颠覆了我们对美国AI主导地位的大部分了解。这也生动地提醒我们，美国必须多么认真地吸引和留住人才，包括来自中国的人才。潘梓正，是DeepSeek多模态团队的第4位多工程师，在开发DeepSeek的R1模型方面发挥了重要作用。回国之前，他在英伟达实习过4个月，而且拿到了英伟达的全职邀约。Graham Allison认为潘梓正之所以如此，是因为硅谷公司未能在美国为他提供这样做的机会。这种“人才流失”，让Graham Allison痛心疾首，甚至将潘梓正回国提升到钱学森归国的高度！像钱学森、黄仁勋以及马斯克这样的的超级人才可以用脚投票，可以在任何地方施展才华、大张宏图。他认为，美国应该尽力避免这样的“人才流失”：美国的大学教练，在寻找并招募世界上最有才华的运动员。在中美科技竞争中，美国应该尽一切努力避免失去更多的钱学森和潘梓正这样的人才。英伟达憾失人才英伟达的高级研究科学家禹之鼎，在得知DeepSeek超越ChatGPT登顶App Store后，分享了当时的实习生潘梓正回国的选择，对他现在取得的成就感到高兴，并分享了对AI竞争的观点：在2023年夏季，梓正是英伟达的实习生。后来，当我们考虑是否给他提供全职工作时，他毫不犹豫地选择了加入 DeepSeek。当时，DeepSeek的多模态团队只有3个人。梓正当时的决定，至今我仍印象深刻。在DeepSeek，他做出了重要贡献，参与了包括DeepSeek-VL2、DeepSeek-V3和DeepSeek-R1等多个关键项目。我个人对他的决定和所取得的成就感到非常高兴。梓正的案例是我近年来看到的一个典型例子。很多最优秀的人才都来自中国，而这些人才并不一定只能在美国公司取得成功。相反，我们从他们身上学到了很多东西。早在2022年的自动驾驶（AV）领域，类似的“斯普特尼克时刻”就已经发生过，并且将在机器人技术和大语言模型（LLM）行业继续发生。我热爱英伟达，并希望看到它继续成为AGI和通用自主系统发展的重要推动力。但如果我们继续编织地缘政治议程，制造对中国研究人员的敌对情绪，我们只会自毁前程，失去更多的竞争力。我们需要更多的优秀人才、更高的专业水平、更强的学习能力、创造力以及更强的执行力。潘梓正是DeepSeek-VL2的共同一作在DeepSeek超越ChatGPT登顶App Store下载榜第一时，潘梓正在X上分享了自己的感受：潘梓正2024年全职加入DeepSeek，担任研究员。他曾在英伟达AI算法组担任研究实习生。2021年，潘梓正加入蒙纳士大学（Monash University）ZIP Lab攻读计算机科学博士，导师是Bohan Zhuang教授和Jianfei Cai教授。在此之前，他分别获得阿德莱德大学（University of Adelaide）计算机科学硕士和哈尔滨工业大学（威海）软件工程学士学位。在博士期间，潘梓正的研究兴趣主要集中在深度神经网络的效率方面，包括模型部署、Transformer架构优化、注意力机制、 推理加速和内存高效的训练。Lex Fridman硬核播客，揭秘中国AI新星如何撼动全球格局就在最近，Lex Fridman放出了一期长达5小时的播客，邀请了AI2的模型训练专家Nathan Lambert和Semianalysis硬件专家Dylan Patel。在这期信息量爆棚的谈话中，他们全程聚焦DeepSeek，讨论了这颗中国AI新星如何撼动全球格局、MoE架构+MLA的技术双刃、DeepSeek开源倒逼行业开放进程、中国式极限优化之道的硬件魔术等。DeepSeek到底用没用OpenAI数据这次，几位大佬的谈话内容可谓相当犀利，直指问题核心。比如这个关键问题：DeepSeek究竟用没用OpenAI的数据？此前，OpenAI公开表示，DeepSeek使用了自家的模型蒸馏。《金融时报》干脆说，“OpenAI有证据表明DeepSeek用了他们的模型来进行训练”这在道德和法律上站得住脚吗？虽然OpenAI的服务条款规定，不许用户使用自家模型的输出来构建竞争对手。但这个所谓的规则，其实正是OpenAI虚伪的体现。Lex Fridman表示：他们和大多数公司一样，本来就是在未经许可（金麒麟分析师）的情况下，使用互联网上的数据进行训练，并从中受益的。大佬们一致认为，OpenAI声称DeepSeek用其模型训练，就是在试图转移话题、让自己独赢。而且，过去几天还有很多人把DeepSeek的模型蒸馏到Llama中，因前者在推理上运行很复杂，而Llama很容易提供服务，这违法吗？DeepSeek的训练成本，为何如此之低Dylan Patel表示，DeepSeek的成本涉及两项关键的技术：一个是MoE，一个就是MLA（多头潜注意力）。MOE架构的优势在于，一方面，模型可以将数据嵌入到更大的参数空间中，另一方面，在训练或推理时，模型只需要激活其中一部分参数，从而大大提升效率。DeepSeek模型拥有超过6000亿个参数，相比之下，Llama 405B有4050亿参数。从参数规模上看，DeepSeek模型拥有更大的信息压缩空间，可以容纳更多的世界知识。但与此同时，DeepSeek模型每次只激活约370亿个参数。也就是说，在训练或推理过程中，只需要计算370亿个参数。相比之下，Llama 405B模型每次推理却需要激活4050亿个参数。MLA主要用于减少推理过程中的内存占用，在训练过程也是如此，它利用了一些巧妙的低秩近似数学技巧。Nathan Lambert表示，深入研究潜注意力的细节，会发现DeepSeek在模型实现方面下了很大功夫。因为，除了注意力机制，语言模型还有其他组件，例如用于扩展上下文长度的嵌入。DeepSeek采用的是旋转位置编码（RoPE）。将RoPE与传统的MoE结合使用，需要进行一系列操作，例如，将两个注意力矩阵进行复数旋转，这涉及到矩阵乘法。DeepSeek的MLA架构由于需要一些巧妙的设计，因此实现的复杂性大大增加。而他们成功地将这些技术整合在一起，这表明DeepSeek在高效语言模型训练方面走在了前沿。Dylan Patel表示，DeepSeek想方设法提高模型训练效率。其中一个方法就是不直接调用NVIDIA的NCCL库，而是自行调度GPU之间的通信。DeepSeek的独特之处在于，他们通过调度特定的SM（流式多处理器）来管理GPU通信。DeepSeek会精细地控制哪些SM核心负责模型计算，哪些核心负责allreduce或allgather通信，并在它们之间进行动态切换。这需要极其高深的编程技巧。DeepSeek为何如此便宜在所有声称提供R1服务的公司中，定价都远高于DeepSeek API，而且大多服务无法正常工作，吞吐量极低。让大佬们震惊的是，一方面中国取得了这种能力，另一方面价格如此之低。（R1的价格，比o1便宜27倍）训练为什么便宜，上文已经提到。为什么推理成本也这么低呢？首先，就是DeepSeek在模型架构上的创新。MLA这种全新的注意力机制，跟Transformer注意力机制不同。这种多头潜注意力，可以将注意力机制的内存占用减少大约80%到90%，尤其有助于处理长上下文。而且，DeepSeek和OpenAI的服务成本有巨大差异，部分原因是OpenAI的利润率非常高，推理的毛利率超过了75%。因为OpenAI目前是亏损的，在训练上花费了太多，因此推理的利润率很高。接下来亮点来了，几位大佬放飞想象，猜测这会不会是一种阴谋论：DeepSeek精心策划了这次发布和定价，做空英伟达和美国公司的股票，配合星际之门的发布……但这种猜测立马遭到了反驳，Dylan Patel表示，他们只是赶在农历新年前把产品尽快发布而已，并没有没有打算搞个大的，否则为什么选在圣诞节后一天发布V3呢？中国的工业能力，已经远超美国美国无疑在GPU等芯片领域领先于中国。不过，对GPU出口管制，就能完全阻止中国吗？不太可能。Dylan Patel认为，美国政府也清楚地认识到这一点， 而Nathan Lambert认为中国会制造自己的芯片。中国可能拥有更多的人才、更多的STEM毕业生、更多的程序员。美国当然也可以利用世界各地的人才，但这未必能让美国有额外的优势。真正重要的是计算能力。中国拥有的电力总和，数量已经惊人。中国的钢铁厂，其规模相当于整个美国工业的总和，此外还有需要庞大电力的铝厂。即使美国的星际之门真的建成，达到2吉瓦电力，仍小于中国最大的工业设施。就这么说吧，如果中国建造世界上最大的数据中心，只要有芯片，马上就能做到。所以这只是一个时间问题，而不是能力问题。现在，发电、输电、变电站以及变压器等构建数据中心所需的东西，都将制约美国构建越来越大的训练系统，以及部署越来越多的推理计算能力。相比之下，如果中国继续坚信Scaling Law，就像纳德拉、扎克伯格和劈柴等美国高管那样，甚至可以比美国更快地实现。因此，为了减缓中国AI技术的发展，确保AGI无法被大规模训练，美国出台了一系列禁令——通过限制GPU、光刻机等关键要素的出口，意图“封杀”整个半导体产业。OpenAI o3-Mini能追上DeepSeek R1吗？接下来，几位大佬对几个明星推理模型进行了实测。有趣的是，谷歌的Gemini Flash Thinking，无论从价格还是性能上来看都优于R1，而且在去年12月初就发布了，然而却无人关心……对此，几位大佬的体感是，它的行为模式不如o1那样富有表现力，应用场景较窄。o1在特定任务上可能不是最完美，但灵活性和通用性更强。Lex Frieman则表示，自己个人非常喜欢R1的一点，是它会展示完整的思维链token。在开放式的哲学问题中，我们作为能欣赏智能、推理和反思能力的人类，阅读R1的原始思维链token，会感受到一种独特的美感。这种非线性的思维过程，类似于詹姆斯·乔伊斯的意识流小说《尤利西斯》和《芬尼根的守灵夜》，令人着迷。相比之下，o3-mini给人的感觉是聪明、快速，但缺乏亮点，往往比较平庸，缺乏深度和新意。从下图中可以看到，从GPT-3到GPT-3.5，再到Llama，推理成本呈指数级下降趋势。DeepSeek R1是第一个达到如此低成本的推理模型，这个成就很了不起，不过，它的成本水平并没有超出专家们预期的范围。而在未来，随着模型架构的创新、更高质量的训练数据、更先进的训练技术，以及更高效的推理系统和硬件（比如新一代GPU和ASIC芯片），AI模型的推理成本还会持续下降。最终，这将解锁AGI的潜力。谁将赢得AGI竞赛最后，几位大佬预测了一番，谁将是AGI竞赛的最终赢家。谷歌似乎是领跑者，因为拥有基础设施优势。但在舆论场上，OpenAI似乎是领先者。它在商业化方面已经走在了最前面，拥有目前AI领域最高的收入。目前，谁究竟在AI领域赚到钱了，有人盈利了吗？大佬们盘了盘后发现，从财务报表上看，微软在AI领域已经实现了盈利，但在基础设施方面已经投入了巨额资本支出。谷歌、亚马逊也是如此。Meta获取的巨额利润来自于推荐系统，并非来自Llama等大模型。Anthropic和OpenAI显然还没盈利，否则就不需要继续融资了。不过单从营收和成本来看，GPT-4已经开始盈利了，因为它的训练成本只有几亿美元。最终，谁都无法预料，OpenAI是否会突然陨落。不过目前，各家公司还会继续融资，因为一旦AGI到来，AI带来的回报难以估量。人们可能并不需要OpenAI花费数十亿美元，去研发“下一个最先进的模型”，只需要ChatGPT级别的AI服务就足够了。推理、代码生成、AI智能体、计算机使用，这些都是AI未来真正有价值的应用领域。谁不发力，谁就可能被市场淘汰。参考资料：https://youtu.be/_1f-o0nqpEIhttps://x.com/GrahamTAllison/status/1885442402833621426https://x.com/ZhidingYu/status/1883958911839133894来源：新智元（转自：中国地产基金百人会）\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":392840160387472,"gmtCreate":1736951360410,"gmtModify":1736953805584,"author":{"id":"3569990651722550","authorId":"3569990651722550","name":"股池之蛙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a44b2262c36f98ef5b478294b12a17a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569990651722550","idStr":"3569990651722550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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07:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"意外！英伟达，突遭\"空袭\"！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2438436558","media":"券商中国","summary":"但华尔街分析师突然发出警告称，英伟达股价的涨势暗藏巨大风险，未来或将暴跌20%。但Gil Luria预测，这一趋势将会动摇，在未来18个月内，英伟达的股价将出现两位数的暴跌。上述两大巨头均在第一季度增持了英伟达的股份。这意味着，这两家机构仍看好英伟达未来的增长前景。其中，英伟达宣布的“1拆10”拆股计划将于6月7日正式生效。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>华尔街巨头突然“空袭”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></strong></p><p>正当英伟达一路狂飙之际，有华尔街分析师突然发出警告称，英伟达股价的涨势暗藏巨大风险，未来或将暴跌20%。投资银行DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria表示，英伟达的业绩增长趋势将会动摇，在未来18个月内，英伟达的股价将出现两位数的暴跌。就在前不久，传奇投资人、量化投资机构Research Affiliates的董事长罗伯•阿诺特也发出警告称，英伟达的股票看起来更像个泡沫。</p><p>那么，英伟达究竟有无泡沫？泡沫到底有多大？其实，回顾英伟达股价的这一轮暴力上涨，是具备业绩支撑的。华尔街看空机构主要担忧的是，英伟达的炸裂业绩能否继续保持，一旦业绩增长放缓，便是巨大风险。</p><p>短期来看，英伟达股价仍有不少利好催化。其中，英伟达宣布的“1拆10”拆股计划将于6月7日正式生效。分析人士指出，拆股应该会吸引散户投资者，尽管企业的市值实际上并没有改变。从过往的经历看，宣布拆股的公司往往确实更容易跑赢大盘。</p><blockquote><p><strong>突遭空袭</strong></p></blockquote><p>自AI热潮开始以来，英伟达的股价、业绩一路狂飙，截至最新收盘，其股价已突破1000美元，最新报1064.69美元，刷新历史新高，年内累计涨幅已达115%，最新总市值升至2.62万亿美元（约合人民币19万亿元），年内总市值累计上涨1.4万亿美元（约合人民币10万亿元）。</p><p>但华尔街分析师突然发出警告称，英伟达股价的涨势暗藏巨大风险，未来或将暴跌20%。</p><p>投资银行DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria表示，英伟达最新的业绩报告超出了华尔街的预期，第一财季的营收创下260亿美元的最高纪录，这主要是因为英伟达的顶级客户增加了对其GPU产品的支出。</p><p>但Gil Luria预测，这一趋势将会动摇，在未来18个月内，英伟达的股价将出现两位数的暴跌。</p><p>他估计，到2026年，英伟达的股价可能跌至900美元左右，这意味着，其股价将较当前水平下跌15%左右，而在更悲观的情境下，跌幅可能高达20%。</p><p>Gil Luria承认，英伟达的短期前景非常好，但长期前景可能比大多数人预期的还要糟糕。英伟达最大的客户包括Meta、Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等科技巨头，它们已经在研发自己的人工智能芯片或投资于其他合作伙伴。这意味着，随着时间的推移，它们对英伟达的依赖可能会减弱。</p><p>Gil Luria表示，一旦英伟达的主要客户——包括亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，开始撤资，他将对该股给出“卖出”评级。</p><p>与此同时，传奇投资人、量化投资机构Research Affiliates的董事长罗伯•阿诺特（Rob Arnott）也曾警告称，英伟达的股票看起来更像个泡沫，公司的市销率（Price-to-sales，PS）是天文数字，之所以是天文数字，是因为他们的利润率绝对是巨大的。</p><p>Rob Arnott指出，英伟达在市场上的成功是基于它将在未来继续主导半导体行业的想法。</p><p>对冲基金巨头、杜肯资本管理公司创始人斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller ）也认为，人工智能（AI）已经过度泡沫，因此其在今年第一季度大幅减持了72%的英伟达股票。</p><blockquote><p><strong>泡沫有多大？</strong></p></blockquote><p>其实，回顾英伟达股价的这一轮暴力上涨，是具备业绩支撑的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dc1557f94e4443a48d852198bfb23f7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"313\"/></p><p>从股价走势来看，英伟达股价飙涨始于2023年，截至最新收盘，其间累计涨幅达628.7%。</p><p>从业绩层面来看，最新财报显示，截至2024年4月28日的2025财年第一财季，英伟达实现营收达260亿美元，较去年同期增长了惊人的262%，远超分析师预期的246.5亿美元；净利润高达148.1亿美元，同比增长628%，每股净收益为5.98美元，同样超过分析师预测的每股5.59美元。</p><p>由此可见，英伟达的业绩增长势头完全匹配得上其股价的涨幅，但华尔街看空机构主要担忧的是，英伟达的炸裂业绩能否继续保持，一旦业绩增长放缓，便是巨大风险。</p><p>站在当下，仍有大部分投资巨头看多英伟达未来前景。据LiveReport大数据，截至2024年3月31日，先锋集团是英伟达的第一大机构股东，持有英伟达8.53%的股份，同时英伟达也是先锋集团的第三大重仓股，占比3.82%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>是英伟达的第二大机构股东，持股占比7.29%。</p><p>上述两大巨头均在第一季度增持了英伟达的股份。这意味着，这两家机构仍看好英伟达未来的增长前景。</p><blockquote><p><strong>一则利好催化</strong></p></blockquote><p>短期来看，英伟达股价仍有不少利好催化。其中，英伟达宣布的“1拆10”拆股计划将于6月7日正式生效。分析人士指出，拆股应该会吸引散户投资者，尽管企业的市值实际上并没有改变。</p><p>从过往的经历看，宣布拆股的公司往往更容易跑赢大盘。根据美银全球研究此前发布的一项分析，宣布拆股的公司股价在未来12个月内平均能上涨25.4%，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的平均涨幅则仅为11.9%。</p><p>拆股的另一个利好是，英伟达将有望被纳入华尔街历史最悠久的蓝筹股指数——道琼斯指数。</p><p>由30家公司组成的道琼斯工业平均指数是一个价格加权指数，但英伟达的高股价已经成为阻碍其被纳入的一大障碍：英伟达逾1000美元的股价是道指最大权重股的2倍。</p><p>按最新收盘价计算，分拆后英伟达的每股价格将降至106美元，这一价格对于道指而言才较为适中。</p><p>B.Riley Wealth首席市场策略师Art Hogan表示，英伟达符合纳入道指成份股的所有条件：良好的声誉、持续增长的历史、投资者的兴趣以及其在大盘中的行业代表性。</p><p>其实，亚马逊在2022年拆股后，市场也曾预期，其将被纳入道指。今年早些时候，亚马逊已被正式纳入道指。</p></body></html>","source":"cszg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>意外！英伟达，突遭\"空袭\"！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n意外！英伟达，突遭\"空袭\"！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-28 07:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1_VNemJN41Xxeck-tU_AbA><strong>券商中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>华尔街巨头突然“空袭”英伟达正当英伟达一路狂飙之际，有华尔街分析师突然发出警告称，英伟达股价的涨势暗藏巨大风险，未来或将暴跌20%。投资银行DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria表示，英伟达的业绩增长趋势将会动摇，在未来18个月内，英伟达的股价将出现两位数的暴跌。就在前不久，传奇投资人、量化投资机构Research Affiliates的董事长罗伯•阿诺特也发出警告称，英伟达的股票看起来更...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1_VNemJN41Xxeck-tU_AbA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb3e9bb98e3bb7290e00160161c650","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1_VNemJN41Xxeck-tU_AbA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2438436558","content_text":"华尔街巨头突然“空袭”英伟达正当英伟达一路狂飙之际，有华尔街分析师突然发出警告称，英伟达股价的涨势暗藏巨大风险，未来或将暴跌20%。投资银行DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria表示，英伟达的业绩增长趋势将会动摇，在未来18个月内，英伟达的股价将出现两位数的暴跌。就在前不久，传奇投资人、量化投资机构Research Affiliates的董事长罗伯•阿诺特也发出警告称，英伟达的股票看起来更像个泡沫。那么，英伟达究竟有无泡沫？泡沫到底有多大？其实，回顾英伟达股价的这一轮暴力上涨，是具备业绩支撑的。华尔街看空机构主要担忧的是，英伟达的炸裂业绩能否继续保持，一旦业绩增长放缓，便是巨大风险。短期来看，英伟达股价仍有不少利好催化。其中，英伟达宣布的“1拆10”拆股计划将于6月7日正式生效。分析人士指出，拆股应该会吸引散户投资者，尽管企业的市值实际上并没有改变。从过往的经历看，宣布拆股的公司往往确实更容易跑赢大盘。突遭空袭自AI热潮开始以来，英伟达的股价、业绩一路狂飙，截至最新收盘，其股价已突破1000美元，最新报1064.69美元，刷新历史新高，年内累计涨幅已达115%，最新总市值升至2.62万亿美元（约合人民币19万亿元），年内总市值累计上涨1.4万亿美元（约合人民币10万亿元）。但华尔街分析师突然发出警告称，英伟达股价的涨势暗藏巨大风险，未来或将暴跌20%。投资银行DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria表示，英伟达最新的业绩报告超出了华尔街的预期，第一财季的营收创下260亿美元的最高纪录，这主要是因为英伟达的顶级客户增加了对其GPU产品的支出。但Gil Luria预测，这一趋势将会动摇，在未来18个月内，英伟达的股价将出现两位数的暴跌。他估计，到2026年，英伟达的股价可能跌至900美元左右，这意味着，其股价将较当前水平下跌15%左右，而在更悲观的情境下，跌幅可能高达20%。Gil Luria承认，英伟达的短期前景非常好，但长期前景可能比大多数人预期的还要糟糕。英伟达最大的客户包括Meta、Alphabet、亚马逊等科技巨头，它们已经在研发自己的人工智能芯片或投资于其他合作伙伴。这意味着，随着时间的推移，它们对英伟达的依赖可能会减弱。Gil Luria表示，一旦英伟达的主要客户——包括亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta和特斯拉，开始撤资，他将对该股给出“卖出”评级。与此同时，传奇投资人、量化投资机构Research Affiliates的董事长罗伯•阿诺特（Rob Arnott）也曾警告称，英伟达的股票看起来更像个泡沫，公司的市销率（Price-to-sales，PS）是天文数字，之所以是天文数字，是因为他们的利润率绝对是巨大的。Rob Arnott指出，英伟达在市场上的成功是基于它将在未来继续主导半导体行业的想法。对冲基金巨头、杜肯资本管理公司创始人斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller ）也认为，人工智能（AI）已经过度泡沫，因此其在今年第一季度大幅减持了72%的英伟达股票。泡沫有多大？其实，回顾英伟达股价的这一轮暴力上涨，是具备业绩支撑的。从股价走势来看，英伟达股价飙涨始于2023年，截至最新收盘，其间累计涨幅达628.7%。从业绩层面来看，最新财报显示，截至2024年4月28日的2025财年第一财季，英伟达实现营收达260亿美元，较去年同期增长了惊人的262%，远超分析师预期的246.5亿美元；净利润高达148.1亿美元，同比增长628%，每股净收益为5.98美元，同样超过分析师预测的每股5.59美元。由此可见，英伟达的业绩增长势头完全匹配得上其股价的涨幅，但华尔街看空机构主要担忧的是，英伟达的炸裂业绩能否继续保持，一旦业绩增长放缓，便是巨大风险。站在当下，仍有大部分投资巨头看多英伟达未来前景。据LiveReport大数据，截至2024年3月31日，先锋集团是英伟达的第一大机构股东，持有英伟达8.53%的股份，同时英伟达也是先锋集团的第三大重仓股，占比3.82%；贝莱德是英伟达的第二大机构股东，持股占比7.29%。上述两大巨头均在第一季度增持了英伟达的股份。这意味着，这两家机构仍看好英伟达未来的增长前景。一则利好催化短期来看，英伟达股价仍有不少利好催化。其中，英伟达宣布的“1拆10”拆股计划将于6月7日正式生效。分析人士指出，拆股应该会吸引散户投资者，尽管企业的市值实际上并没有改变。从过往的经历看，宣布拆股的公司往往更容易跑赢大盘。根据美银全球研究此前发布的一项分析，宣布拆股的公司股价在未来12个月内平均能上涨25.4%，而标普500指数的平均涨幅则仅为11.9%。拆股的另一个利好是，英伟达将有望被纳入华尔街历史最悠久的蓝筹股指数——道琼斯指数。由30家公司组成的道琼斯工业平均指数是一个价格加权指数，但英伟达的高股价已经成为阻碍其被纳入的一大障碍：英伟达逾1000美元的股价是道指最大权重股的2倍。按最新收盘价计算，分拆后英伟达的每股价格将降至106美元，这一价格对于道指而言才较为适中。B.Riley Wealth首席市场策略师Art 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