5D1T2的个人主页 - 老虎社区

5D1T2

5D1T2

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

491关注

13粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-12-14

Ok

Disney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>迪士尼：并非所有订阅者生来平等</blockquote>

2021-10-03

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-28

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-22

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-07

[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

EVs growth story

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-23

Ok

Here's what Powell's nomination for 2nd term as Fed chairman means for markets<blockquote>这就是鲍威尔被提名连任美联储主席对市场的意义</blockquote>

2021-11-12

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-03

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-19

[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

Apple Seeing Surging China iPhone Demand, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称苹果看到中国iPhone需求激增</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3569971237956537","uuid":"3569971237956537","gmtCreate":1606879163832,"gmtModify":1622688941544,"name":"5D1T2","pinyin":"5d1t2","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":13,"headSize":491,"tweetSize":189,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":63,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.30","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.11.25","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":3,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":692341231,"gmtCreate":1640859749176,"gmtModify":1640859749346,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692341231","repostId":"1187731440","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696548553,"gmtCreate":1640740545079,"gmtModify":1640740545237,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696548553","repostId":"1186633322","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696821960,"gmtCreate":1640666083282,"gmtModify":1640666083456,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696821960","repostId":"1127544468","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2993,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696094022,"gmtCreate":1640570609527,"gmtModify":1640570609685,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696094022","repostId":"1134678244","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698411457,"gmtCreate":1640490459893,"gmtModify":1640490460052,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698411457","repostId":"2193033173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698830479,"gmtCreate":1640333383056,"gmtModify":1640333383262,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698830479","repostId":"1117383431","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117383431","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640317475,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117383431?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 11:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特2021年的8大亮点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117383431","media":"Markets insider","summary":"Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year","content":"<p>Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year. Here are his 8 highlights of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了两个大赌注，为自己的纳税习惯辩护，并承认了今年的几个错误。以下是他2021年的8大亮点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Warren Buffett revealed two big bets, admitted mistakes, and complained about speculators this year.</li>  <li>The Berkshire Hathaway chief defended his tax practices<b>&nbsp;and made a fortune on Apple.</b></li>  <li><b>Here are billionaire investor Buffett's eight highlights of 2021.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e08085f6ee8a3866f2c0f78fdc0f63\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>沃伦·巴菲特今年透露了两次大赌注，承认了错误，并抱怨投机者。</li><li>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官为他的税务行为辩护<b>在苹果上发了大财。</b></li><li><b>以下是亿万富翁投资者巴菲特2021年的八大亮点。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett revealed a couple of billion-dollar investments, owned up to making several mistakes, and bemoaned the rampant speculation in markets this year.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了数十亿美元的投资，承认犯了几个错误，并对今年市场上猖獗的投机行为表示遗憾。</blockquote></p><p> The renowned investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO also weathered a tax exposé, resigned as a trustee of The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, reflected on his decades-long friendship with Charlie Munger, and saw his Apple investment soared in value.</p><p><blockquote>这位著名投资者兼Berkshire Hathaway首席执行官还经受住了税务曝光，辞去了Bill&amp;Melinda Gates基金会受托人的职务，反思了他与查理·芒格数十年的友谊，并看到他在苹果的投资价值飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are the 8 highlights of Buffett's year:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是巴菲特这一年的8大亮点：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Chevron and Verizon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>雪佛龙和威瑞森</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6a660c35780e87560d9d7518a755bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett started the year in style with his&nbsp;fourth-quarter portfolio update&nbsp;in February. He revealed a $4.1 billion stake in&nbsp;Chevron&nbsp;and a $8.6 billion position in&nbsp;Verizon, answering the question of which&nbsp;mystery stocks&nbsp;he had been buying in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在二月份更新了第四季度投资组合，以时尚的方式开启了新的一年。他透露了41亿美元的雪佛龙股份和86亿美元的威瑞森头寸，回答了他最近几个月一直在购买哪些神秘股票的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire also trimmed the largest position in its portfolio,Apple, by 6%. Moreover, it halved its&nbsp;Wells Fargo&nbsp;holdings and exited&nbsp;JPMorgan,PNC, and&nbsp;M&amp;T&nbsp;after slashing its positions in those banks in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Berkshire还将其投资组合中最大的持仓苹果削减了6%。此外，该公司在2020年削减了在摩根大通、PNC和M&amp;T银行的头寸后，将其持有的富国银行股份减半，并退出了这些银行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The shareholder letter</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东信</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8d9ea154fd9ca33192159634e60af4\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;published&nbsp;his annual letter to shareholders in February. The investor admitted to overpaying when he acquired Precision Castparts in 2016, trumpeted a bunch of Berkshire's subsidiaries, and contrasted his long-term shareholders with the speculators flocking to trendy assets such as meme stocks and cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在二月份发表了致股东的年度信。这位投资者承认，他在2016年收购Precision Castparts时支付了过高的价格，大肆宣传了伯克希尔的一系列子公司，并将他的长期股东与涌向模因股票和加密货币等时尚资产的投机者进行了对比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The annual meeting</b></p><p><blockquote><b>年会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f9312fb972e2aa68627183025b2f91e\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett talks to reporters while holding an ice cream at a trade show during the company's annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska May 3, 2014.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2014年5月3日，在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行的公司年会上，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在贸易展上拿着冰淇淋与记者交谈。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett warned rookie traders not to get cocky, bemoaned the lack of bargains in the market, rang the inflation alarm, and admitted to buying \"so-so\" stocks during Berkshire's&nbsp;annual shareholder meeting&nbsp;in May.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特警告菜鸟交易员不要自大，哀叹市场缺乏便宜货，敲响通胀警报，并承认在伯克希尔5月份的年度股东大会期间买入了“马马虎虎”的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The investor also complained about the surge in people treating the stock market like a casino. Moreover, he acknowledged that trimming his Apple stake and selling&nbsp;Costco&nbsp;were likely mistakes, and suggested he avoided bailing out the \"big four\" US airlines by exiting his positions in them in April 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者还抱怨说，越来越多的人将股市视为赌场。此外，他承认削减苹果股份和出售Costco可能是错误，并建议他通过在2020年4月退出美国“四大”航空公司的头寸来避免救助这些公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The tax fracas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>税收失败</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a44f30c0a7e35f28da432b35a28cf3\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett came under fire in June after ProPublica secured the tax returns of some of the wealthiest Americans, and reported the investor paid only $25 million in federal income tax between 2014 and 2018.</p><p><blockquote>6月份，ProPublica获得了一些最富有的美国人的纳税申报表，并报告称该投资者在2014年至2018年间仅缴纳了2500万美元的联邦所得税，巴菲特受到了批评。</blockquote></p><p> The Berkshire boss&nbsp;defended himself&nbsp;by noting that he's pledged to give over 99% of his net worth to philanthropic causes, and has already donated about half of his Berkshire \"A\" shares since 2006.</p><p><blockquote>这位伯克希尔老板为自己辩护说，他承诺将超过99%的净资产捐给慈善事业，并且自2006年以来已经捐赠了大约一半的伯克希尔“A”股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Gates Foundation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盖茨基金会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f51d18855fcf5c00bab6b290a5814dd9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Paul Sakuma/AP Photo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>保罗·佐久间/美联社照片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;resigned&nbsp;as a trustee of the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation in June. The investor explained that he was barely involved in the foundation's work, and had already stepped down from all corporate boards except his own.</p><p><blockquote>今年6月，巴菲特辞去了比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人的职务。这位投资者解释说，他几乎没有参与基金会的工作，并且已经辞去了除自己以外的所有公司董事会的职务。</blockquote></p><p> He also highlighted his annual donation of $4.1 billion in total to five charities, including the Gates Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>他还强调了他每年向包括盖茨基金会在内的五家慈善机构捐赠总计41亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friendship with Charlie Munger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与查理·芒格的友谊</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9020f65431108ca2a38c0e654349a2\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, discussed their decades-long friendship in a&nbsp;CNBC interview&nbsp;that aired in June.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特和他的商业伙伴查理·芒格在6月份播出的CNBC采访中讨论了他们数十年的友谊。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The pair sharply criticized&nbsp;Robinhood, and Munger called for tighter regulations on derivatives trading after&nbsp;Archegos Capital's meltdown. Buffett underlined the immense contribution that Munger has made to his life.</p><p><blockquote>两人尖锐地批评了Robinhood，芒格在Archegos Capital崩溃后呼吁对衍生品交易进行更严格的监管。巴菲特强调了芒格对他一生做出的巨大贡献。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buybacks, cash, and stock sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回购、现金和股票销售</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfba0cfd98eca4c346f1fc53e1dd9bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's&nbsp;third-quarter earnings&nbsp;underlined how hard it has been for Buffett to find bargain stocks and businesses this year. That has prompted him to stockpile cash and ramp up share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔第三季度财报突显了巴菲特今年寻找廉价股票和企业的难度。这促使他储备现金并加大股票回购力度。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate sold a net $7 billion of stock in the year to September 30, revealed it was on track to repurchase a record $25 billion of stock this year, and grew its cash pile to an unprecedented $149 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至9月30日的一年里，该集团净出售了70亿美元的股票，并透露今年有望回购创纪录的250亿美元股票，并将现金储备增至前所未有的1490亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple bet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果赌注</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a735713e1ca5629e3e229ed80ea7fbb\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett's biggest success this year might well be his Apple investment.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特今年最大的成功很可能是他在苹果的投资。</blockquote></p><p> The investor plowed $36 billion into the iPhone maker between 2016 and 2018. The stock has&nbsp;surged&nbsp;by about a third this year, boosting the value of Berkshire's stake to more than $150 billion as of mid-December.</p><p><blockquote>该投资者在2016年至2018年间向这家iPhone制造商投入了360亿美元。该股今年已飙升约三分之一，截至12月中旬，伯克希尔的持股价值已超过1500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特2021年的8大亮点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特2021年的8大亮点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Markets insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 11:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year. Here are his 8 highlights of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了两个大赌注，为自己的纳税习惯辩护，并承认了今年的几个错误。以下是他2021年的8大亮点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Warren Buffett revealed two big bets, admitted mistakes, and complained about speculators this year.</li>  <li>The Berkshire Hathaway chief defended his tax practices<b>&nbsp;and made a fortune on Apple.</b></li>  <li><b>Here are billionaire investor Buffett's eight highlights of 2021.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e08085f6ee8a3866f2c0f78fdc0f63\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>沃伦·巴菲特今年透露了两次大赌注，承认了错误，并抱怨投机者。</li><li>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官为他的税务行为辩护<b>在苹果上发了大财。</b></li><li><b>以下是亿万富翁投资者巴菲特2021年的八大亮点。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett revealed a couple of billion-dollar investments, owned up to making several mistakes, and bemoaned the rampant speculation in markets this year.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了数十亿美元的投资，承认犯了几个错误，并对今年市场上猖獗的投机行为表示遗憾。</blockquote></p><p> The renowned investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO also weathered a tax exposé, resigned as a trustee of The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, reflected on his decades-long friendship with Charlie Munger, and saw his Apple investment soared in value.</p><p><blockquote>这位著名投资者兼Berkshire Hathaway首席执行官还经受住了税务曝光，辞去了Bill&amp;Melinda Gates基金会受托人的职务，反思了他与查理·芒格数十年的友谊，并看到他在苹果的投资价值飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are the 8 highlights of Buffett's year:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是巴菲特这一年的8大亮点：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Chevron and Verizon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>雪佛龙和威瑞森</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6a660c35780e87560d9d7518a755bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett started the year in style with his&nbsp;fourth-quarter portfolio update&nbsp;in February. He revealed a $4.1 billion stake in&nbsp;Chevron&nbsp;and a $8.6 billion position in&nbsp;Verizon, answering the question of which&nbsp;mystery stocks&nbsp;he had been buying in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在二月份更新了第四季度投资组合，以时尚的方式开启了新的一年。他透露了41亿美元的雪佛龙股份和86亿美元的威瑞森头寸，回答了他最近几个月一直在购买哪些神秘股票的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire also trimmed the largest position in its portfolio,Apple, by 6%. Moreover, it halved its&nbsp;Wells Fargo&nbsp;holdings and exited&nbsp;JPMorgan,PNC, and&nbsp;M&amp;T&nbsp;after slashing its positions in those banks in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Berkshire还将其投资组合中最大的持仓苹果削减了6%。此外，该公司在2020年削减了在摩根大通、PNC和M&amp;T银行的头寸后，将其持有的富国银行股份减半，并退出了这些银行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The shareholder letter</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东信</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8d9ea154fd9ca33192159634e60af4\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;published&nbsp;his annual letter to shareholders in February. The investor admitted to overpaying when he acquired Precision Castparts in 2016, trumpeted a bunch of Berkshire's subsidiaries, and contrasted his long-term shareholders with the speculators flocking to trendy assets such as meme stocks and cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在二月份发表了致股东的年度信。这位投资者承认，他在2016年收购Precision Castparts时支付了过高的价格，大肆宣传了伯克希尔的一系列子公司，并将他的长期股东与涌向模因股票和加密货币等时尚资产的投机者进行了对比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The annual meeting</b></p><p><blockquote><b>年会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f9312fb972e2aa68627183025b2f91e\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett talks to reporters while holding an ice cream at a trade show during the company's annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska May 3, 2014.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2014年5月3日，在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行的公司年会上，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在贸易展上拿着冰淇淋与记者交谈。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett warned rookie traders not to get cocky, bemoaned the lack of bargains in the market, rang the inflation alarm, and admitted to buying \"so-so\" stocks during Berkshire's&nbsp;annual shareholder meeting&nbsp;in May.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特警告菜鸟交易员不要自大，哀叹市场缺乏便宜货，敲响通胀警报，并承认在伯克希尔5月份的年度股东大会期间买入了“马马虎虎”的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The investor also complained about the surge in people treating the stock market like a casino. Moreover, he acknowledged that trimming his Apple stake and selling&nbsp;Costco&nbsp;were likely mistakes, and suggested he avoided bailing out the \"big four\" US airlines by exiting his positions in them in April 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者还抱怨说，越来越多的人将股市视为赌场。此外，他承认削减苹果股份和出售Costco可能是错误，并建议他通过在2020年4月退出美国“四大”航空公司的头寸来避免救助这些公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The tax fracas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>税收失败</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a44f30c0a7e35f28da432b35a28cf3\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett came under fire in June after ProPublica secured the tax returns of some of the wealthiest Americans, and reported the investor paid only $25 million in federal income tax between 2014 and 2018.</p><p><blockquote>6月份，ProPublica获得了一些最富有的美国人的纳税申报表，并报告称该投资者在2014年至2018年间仅缴纳了2500万美元的联邦所得税，巴菲特受到了批评。</blockquote></p><p> The Berkshire boss&nbsp;defended himself&nbsp;by noting that he's pledged to give over 99% of his net worth to philanthropic causes, and has already donated about half of his Berkshire \"A\" shares since 2006.</p><p><blockquote>这位伯克希尔老板为自己辩护说，他承诺将超过99%的净资产捐给慈善事业，并且自2006年以来已经捐赠了大约一半的伯克希尔“A”股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Gates Foundation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盖茨基金会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f51d18855fcf5c00bab6b290a5814dd9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Paul Sakuma/AP Photo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>保罗·佐久间/美联社照片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;resigned&nbsp;as a trustee of the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation in June. The investor explained that he was barely involved in the foundation's work, and had already stepped down from all corporate boards except his own.</p><p><blockquote>今年6月，巴菲特辞去了比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人的职务。这位投资者解释说，他几乎没有参与基金会的工作，并且已经辞去了除自己以外的所有公司董事会的职务。</blockquote></p><p> He also highlighted his annual donation of $4.1 billion in total to five charities, including the Gates Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>他还强调了他每年向包括盖茨基金会在内的五家慈善机构捐赠总计41亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friendship with Charlie Munger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与查理·芒格的友谊</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9020f65431108ca2a38c0e654349a2\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, discussed their decades-long friendship in a&nbsp;CNBC interview&nbsp;that aired in June.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特和他的商业伙伴查理·芒格在6月份播出的CNBC采访中讨论了他们数十年的友谊。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The pair sharply criticized&nbsp;Robinhood, and Munger called for tighter regulations on derivatives trading after&nbsp;Archegos Capital's meltdown. Buffett underlined the immense contribution that Munger has made to his life.</p><p><blockquote>两人尖锐地批评了Robinhood，芒格在Archegos Capital崩溃后呼吁对衍生品交易进行更严格的监管。巴菲特强调了芒格对他一生做出的巨大贡献。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buybacks, cash, and stock sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回购、现金和股票销售</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfba0cfd98eca4c346f1fc53e1dd9bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's&nbsp;third-quarter earnings&nbsp;underlined how hard it has been for Buffett to find bargain stocks and businesses this year. That has prompted him to stockpile cash and ramp up share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔第三季度财报突显了巴菲特今年寻找廉价股票和企业的难度。这促使他储备现金并加大股票回购力度。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate sold a net $7 billion of stock in the year to September 30, revealed it was on track to repurchase a record $25 billion of stock this year, and grew its cash pile to an unprecedented $149 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至9月30日的一年里，该集团净出售了70亿美元的股票，并透露今年有望回购创纪录的250亿美元股票，并将现金储备增至前所未有的1490亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple bet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果赌注</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a735713e1ca5629e3e229ed80ea7fbb\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett's biggest success this year might well be his Apple investment.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特今年最大的成功很可能是他在苹果的投资。</blockquote></p><p> The investor plowed $36 billion into the iPhone maker between 2016 and 2018. The stock has&nbsp;surged&nbsp;by about a third this year, boosting the value of Berkshire's stake to more than $150 billion as of mid-December.</p><p><blockquote>该投资者在2016年至2018年间向这家iPhone制造商投入了360亿美元。该股今年已飙升约三分之一，截至12月中旬，伯克希尔的持股价值已超过1500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stocks-portfolio-taxes-mistakes-review-2021-12\">Markets insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stocks-portfolio-taxes-mistakes-review-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117383431","content_text":"Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year. Here are his 8 highlights of 2021.\n\nWarren Buffett revealed two big bets, admitted mistakes, and complained about speculators this year.\nThe Berkshire Hathaway chief defended his tax practices and made a fortune on Apple.\nHere are billionaire investor Buffett's eight highlights of 2021.\n\nWarren Buffett.\nWarren Buffett revealed a couple of billion-dollar investments, owned up to making several mistakes, and bemoaned the rampant speculation in markets this year.\nThe renowned investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO also weathered a tax exposé, resigned as a trustee of The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, reflected on his decades-long friendship with Charlie Munger, and saw his Apple investment soared in value.\nHere are the 8 highlights of Buffett's year:\nChevron and Verizon\nCNBC\nBuffett started the year in style with his fourth-quarter portfolio update in February. He revealed a $4.1 billion stake in Chevron and a $8.6 billion position in Verizon, answering the question of which mystery stocks he had been buying in recent months.\nBerkshire also trimmed the largest position in its portfolio,Apple, by 6%. Moreover, it halved its Wells Fargo holdings and exited JPMorgan,PNC, and M&T after slashing its positions in those banks in 2020.\nThe shareholder letter\nWarren Buffett\nBuffett published his annual letter to shareholders in February. The investor admitted to overpaying when he acquired Precision Castparts in 2016, trumpeted a bunch of Berkshire's subsidiaries, and contrasted his long-term shareholders with the speculators flocking to trendy assets such as meme stocks and cryptocurrencies.\nThe annual meeting\nBerkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett talks to reporters while holding an ice cream at a trade show during the company's annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska May 3, 2014.\nBuffett warned rookie traders not to get cocky, bemoaned the lack of bargains in the market, rang the inflation alarm, and admitted to buying \"so-so\" stocks during Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting in May.\nThe investor also complained about the surge in people treating the stock market like a casino. Moreover, he acknowledged that trimming his Apple stake and selling Costco were likely mistakes, and suggested he avoided bailing out the \"big four\" US airlines by exiting his positions in them in April 2020.\nThe tax fracas\nWarren Buffett\nBuffett came under fire in June after ProPublica secured the tax returns of some of the wealthiest Americans, and reported the investor paid only $25 million in federal income tax between 2014 and 2018.\nThe Berkshire boss defended himself by noting that he's pledged to give over 99% of his net worth to philanthropic causes, and has already donated about half of his Berkshire \"A\" shares since 2006.\nThe Gates Foundation\nPaul Sakuma/AP Photo\nBuffett resigned as a trustee of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in June. The investor explained that he was barely involved in the foundation's work, and had already stepped down from all corporate boards except his own.\nHe also highlighted his annual donation of $4.1 billion in total to five charities, including the Gates Foundation.\nFriendship with Charlie Munger\nSCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS\nBuffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, discussed their decades-long friendship in a CNBC interview that aired in June.\nThe pair sharply criticized Robinhood, and Munger called for tighter regulations on derivatives trading after Archegos Capital's meltdown. Buffett underlined the immense contribution that Munger has made to his life.\nBuybacks, cash, and stock sales\nWarren Buffett\nBerkshire's third-quarter earnings underlined how hard it has been for Buffett to find bargain stocks and businesses this year. That has prompted him to stockpile cash and ramp up share buybacks.\nThe conglomerate sold a net $7 billion of stock in the year to September 30, revealed it was on track to repurchase a record $25 billion of stock this year, and grew its cash pile to an unprecedented $149 billion.\nThe Apple bet\nWarren Buffett\nBuffett's biggest success this year might well be his Apple investment.\nThe investor plowed $36 billion into the iPhone maker between 2016 and 2018. The stock has surged by about a third this year, boosting the value of Berkshire's stake to more than $150 billion as of mid-December.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691456593,"gmtCreate":1640231575210,"gmtModify":1640231575360,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"merry christmas","listText":"merry christmas","text":"merry christmas","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691456593","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691458446,"gmtCreate":1640231422439,"gmtModify":1640231422691,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691458446","repostId":"691467076","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":691467076,"gmtCreate":1640229315535,"gmtModify":1640229315535,"author":{"id":"3511237393001450","authorId":"3511237393001450","name":"有连云","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd6ac47834fdc8cccb6482191edbbd56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3511237393001450","authorIdStr":"3511237393001450"},"themes":[],"title":"拓普集团涨停，汽车ETF（516110）涨超1.5%","htmlText":"拓普集团涨停，均胜电子、江淮汽车、华域汽车等多股跟涨;汽车ETF(516110)涨超1.5%，成交额超3700万元。今日汽车零部件板块持续走高，山西证券认为，总体来看，我国宏观经济稳定恢复，中国汽车市场处于普及初期向普及后期过渡阶段，新车销售由增量市场逐步转向存量市场，汽车出口超出预期。目前，新能源车技术逐渐成熟，智能化赋予新能源车较多溢价空间，新能源价格相较于燃油车已具有一定的性价比，行业空间大幅提升，产业链不乏结构性投资机会，可关注整车及汽车零部件相关产业。","listText":"拓普集团涨停，均胜电子、江淮汽车、华域汽车等多股跟涨;汽车ETF(516110)涨超1.5%，成交额超3700万元。今日汽车零部件板块持续走高，山西证券认为，总体来看，我国宏观经济稳定恢复，中国汽车市场处于普及初期向普及后期过渡阶段，新车销售由增量市场逐步转向存量市场，汽车出口超出预期。目前，新能源车技术逐渐成熟，智能化赋予新能源车较多溢价空间，新能源价格相较于燃油车已具有一定的性价比，行业空间大幅提升，产业链不乏结构性投资机会，可关注整车及汽车零部件相关产业。","text":"拓普集团涨停，均胜电子、江淮汽车、华域汽车等多股跟涨;汽车ETF(516110)涨超1.5%，成交额超3700万元。今日汽车零部件板块持续走高，山西证券认为，总体来看，我国宏观经济稳定恢复，中国汽车市场处于普及初期向普及后期过渡阶段，新车销售由增量市场逐步转向存量市场，汽车出口超出预期。目前，新能源车技术逐渐成熟，智能化赋予新能源车较多溢价空间，新能源价格相较于燃油车已具有一定的性价比，行业空间大幅提升，产业链不乏结构性投资机会，可关注整车及汽车零部件相关产业。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691467076","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691450384,"gmtCreate":1640230921054,"gmtModify":1640230921210,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691450384","repostId":"1101189169","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101189169","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640227692,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101189169?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 10:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Under Armour the Next Big Metaverse Stock? Steph Curry NFTs Put UA Stock in Focus.<blockquote>Under Armour是元宇宙的下一只大股票吗？Steph Curry NFTs让UA股票成为焦点。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101189169","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"The non-fungible token wave knows no bounds today after Steph Curry and Under Armour(NYSE:UA, NYSE:U","content":"<p><div> The non-fungible token wave knows no bounds today after Steph Curry and Under Armour(NYSE:UA, NYSE:UAA) announced a new collection. The Golden State Warriors are commemorating Curry’s new record atop ...</p><p><blockquote><div>在斯蒂芬·库里和安德玛（纽约证券交易所代码：UA，纽约证券交易所代码：UAA）宣布新系列后，不可替代的代币浪潮今天没有止境。金州勇士队正在纪念库里的新纪录...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/under-armour-next-metaverse-stock-ua-stock-steph-curry-nfts-nba-sandbox/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/under-armour-next-metaverse-stock-ua-stock-steph-curry-nfts-nba-sandbox/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Under Armour the Next Big Metaverse Stock? Steph Curry NFTs Put UA Stock in Focus.<blockquote>Under Armour是元宇宙的下一只大股票吗？Steph Curry NFTs让UA股票成为焦点。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Under Armour the Next Big Metaverse Stock? Steph Curry NFTs Put UA Stock in Focus.<blockquote>Under Armour是元宇宙的下一只大股票吗？Steph Curry NFTs让UA股票成为焦点。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 10:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The non-fungible token wave knows no bounds today after Steph Curry and Under Armour(NYSE:UA, NYSE:UAA) announced a new collection. The Golden State Warriors are commemorating Curry’s new record atop ...</p><p><blockquote><div>在斯蒂芬·库里和安德玛（纽约证券交易所代码：UA，纽约证券交易所代码：UAA）宣布新系列后，不可替代的代币浪潮今天没有止境。金州勇士队正在纪念库里的新纪录...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/under-armour-next-metaverse-stock-ua-stock-steph-curry-nfts-nba-sandbox/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/under-armour-next-metaverse-stock-ua-stock-steph-curry-nfts-nba-sandbox/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/under-armour-next-metaverse-stock-ua-stock-steph-curry-nfts-nba-sandbox/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UAA":"安德玛公司A类股"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/under-armour-next-metaverse-stock-ua-stock-steph-curry-nfts-nba-sandbox/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101189169","content_text":"The non-fungible token wave knows no bounds today after Steph Curry and Under Armour(NYSE:UA, NYSE:UAA) announced a new collection. The Golden State Warriors are commemorating Curry’s new record atop the NBA’s all-time three-point shooter list with a collection of NFTs. These wearable collectibles are replicas of his namesake “Curry Flow 9” Under Armour sneakers, which Curry wore when he broke the record on Dec. 14. UA stock has reacted mildly to the news so far, but you can never count out NFT mania.\nWhat do you need to know about this latest metaverse endeavor?\nThe Genesis Curry Flow NFT collection marks the first venture into the metaverse for Under Amour. The collection is the first wearable, cross-platform sneaker NFT. What does this mean? Users across three different metaverses can access them.Decentraland(CCC:MANA-USD),The Sandbox(CCC:SAND-USD) and Gala Games(CCC:GALA-USD) will each have their own style of the sneaker,with modest differences in color and shape.\nEwen Cameron, the founder of Berlin Cameron, the creative agency supporting the NFT launch, commented on the latest release:\n\n “With the stature of Stephen’s achievement, we wanted to do something thattruly changed the metaverse game for good, and so the notion of the first sneaker that can travel across the platform and have genuine functionality and performance was born.”\n\nThe Under Armour collection dropped on Dec. 21. Proceeds benefit children’s sports charities.\nIs Steph Curry NFT News Enough to Rally UA Stock?\nUnder Armour is following competitors Nike(NYSE:NKE) and Adidas(OTCMKTS:ADDYY) into the metaverse. And this really does make sense. The metaverse is set to become a $1 trillion industry, and UA clearly sees the potential.\nJust this month, Adidasannounceda “leap” into the metaverse with a collection of limited-edition NFTs. Nike is taking it a step further with the introduction of its own virtual playscape, “Nikeland.” Built on top of the wildly popular Roblox(NYSE:RBLX) sandbox, the metaverse will act as a platform for Nike fans to play and build. The shoe giant plans on incorporating the Ethereum blockchain to link identification codes to its products as an anti-counterfeit measure.\nInterestingly, each of the three companies has only seen mild reactions in their stock prices following the announcements. UA stock is actually down slightly on the day. In fact, UA and UAA shares have largely traded sideways in the last few years.\nBut there is room for hope, though. The NBA remains one of the most aggressive sports leagues in terms of relevant NFT and crypto exposure. In just a few days, the Staples Center, home of the Los Angeles Lakers, will change its name to the “Crypto.com Arena” as part of a $700 million dollar deal.\nWhile this may mark the beginning of Under Armour’s crypto campaign, it’s not a stretch to assume more is in store. For UA stock fans, the metaverse could be a blessing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UAA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691131761,"gmtCreate":1640145399272,"gmtModify":1640145399463,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691131761","repostId":"2193316202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693734582,"gmtCreate":1640077814106,"gmtModify":1640077814295,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693734582","repostId":"1194627020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194627020","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640077282,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194627020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194627020","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading.\nThe company reported fiscal second-quarter earni","content":"<p>Nike&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ffc773c42f2aacf793dd422e5bf4f7\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"605\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.34 billion, or 83 cents a share, up from 78 cents a share a year ago. That beats the 63 cents EPS analysts were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>该公司公布第二财季收益为13.4亿美元，即每股收益83美分，高于一年前的每股78美分。这超出了分析师预期的63美分每股收益。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue rose to $11.36 billion from $11.24 billion in the year-ago quarter compared with the $11.25 billion expected. Revenue in North America,Nike‘s (ticker: NKE) biggest market, climbed 12%, representing the highest growth of all geographies.</p><p><blockquote>营收从去年同期的112.4亿美元增至113.6亿美元，预期为112.5亿美元。耐克（股票代码：NKE）最大市场北美的收入增长了12%，是所有地区中增长最高的。</blockquote></p><p> Greater consumer demand, especially for online merchandise, helped boost results, the company said in an earnings call Monday evening. Nike digital grew 11% in the quarter and now accounts for 25% of its total revenue globally.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在周一晚间的财报看涨期权上表示，消费者需求的增加，尤其是对在线商品的需求，有助于提振业绩。Nike digital本季度增长11%，目前占其全球总收入的25%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-21 17:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nike&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ffc773c42f2aacf793dd422e5bf4f7\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"605\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.34 billion, or 83 cents a share, up from 78 cents a share a year ago. That beats the 63 cents EPS analysts were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>该公司公布第二财季收益为13.4亿美元，即每股收益83美分，高于一年前的每股78美分。这超出了分析师预期的63美分每股收益。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue rose to $11.36 billion from $11.24 billion in the year-ago quarter compared with the $11.25 billion expected. Revenue in North America,Nike‘s (ticker: NKE) biggest market, climbed 12%, representing the highest growth of all geographies.</p><p><blockquote>营收从去年同期的112.4亿美元增至113.6亿美元，预期为112.5亿美元。耐克（股票代码：NKE）最大市场北美的收入增长了12%，是所有地区中增长最高的。</blockquote></p><p> Greater consumer demand, especially for online merchandise, helped boost results, the company said in an earnings call Monday evening. Nike digital grew 11% in the quarter and now accounts for 25% of its total revenue globally.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在周一晚间的财报看涨期权上表示，消费者需求的增加，尤其是对在线商品的需求，有助于提振业绩。Nike digital本季度增长11%，目前占其全球总收入的25%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194627020","content_text":"Nike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading.\nThe company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.34 billion, or 83 cents a share, up from 78 cents a share a year ago. That beats the 63 cents EPS analysts were expecting.\nRevenue rose to $11.36 billion from $11.24 billion in the year-ago quarter compared with the $11.25 billion expected. Revenue in North America,Nike‘s (ticker: NKE) biggest market, climbed 12%, representing the highest growth of all geographies.\nGreater consumer demand, especially for online merchandise, helped boost results, the company said in an earnings call Monday evening. Nike digital grew 11% in the quarter and now accounts for 25% of its total revenue globally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699772732,"gmtCreate":1639915850956,"gmtModify":1639915851109,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699772732","repostId":"2192035909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699681522,"gmtCreate":1639792067060,"gmtModify":1639792067218,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699681522","repostId":"2192597562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690994806,"gmtCreate":1639619610810,"gmtModify":1639619611006,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690994806","repostId":"2191994940","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607294870,"gmtCreate":1639541783307,"gmtModify":1639541783487,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607294870","repostId":"1156446659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156446659","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639540344,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156446659?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156446659","media":"Business Insider","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Frid","content":"<p><ul>  <li><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.</b></li>  <li><b>That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.</b></li>  <li><b>Warren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348b5dc216a2be5e154d22e356336b9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周五，Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果8.87亿股股票价值增至1,590亿美元。</b></li><li><b>这使得这些股份价值占伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，占其6490亿美元市值的近25%。</b></li><li><b>Warren Buffett于2016年开始建立Berkshire在苹果的头寸，并一直持续到2018年年中。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway's&nbsp;stake in&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;is no better example of that investment practice.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特以集中投资创造世代财富而闻名，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在苹果的股份就是这种投资实践的最好例子。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its&nbsp;original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.</p><p><blockquote>周五，伯克希尔持有这家iPhone制造商的8.871亿股股票价值飙升至创纪录的1,590亿美元，较其原始成本基础约360亿美元增长了342%。根据伯克希尔第三季度13F文件的数据，这意味着苹果目前的价值超过了伯克希尔2930亿美元股票投资组合的一半。</blockquote></p><p> And assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>假设伯克希尔哈撒韦公司自9月30日以来没有削减其在苹果的头寸，那么这些股权目前约占伯克希尔哈撒韦公司6490亿美元市值的四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> What also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take&nbsp;decades to compound&nbsp;like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特对苹果的专注也值得注意，因为它并不像巴菲特管理的大多数成功投资那样需要几十年的时间才能实现复利。相反，从Berkshire开始增持苹果股份到现在才五年。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has&nbsp;trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple&nbsp;by about 12% since initially building the stake.</p><p><blockquote>该集团于2016年首次购买了苹果股票，并一直购买到2018年中期，在对2020年4比1的股票分割进行调整后，该持仓量突破10亿股。自最初增持苹果股份以来，巴菲特已将其持有的股份削减了约12%。</blockquote></p><p> Barring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to&nbsp;an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.</p><p><blockquote>根据Bespoke的分析，除非自最近一次13F备案以来发生任何变化，否则Berkshire的股票投资组合本季度迄今将上涨13.9%。这一涨幅很大程度上是由苹果本季度迄今超过20%的涨幅推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than&nbsp;$1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，苹果股价上涨了31%，而Berkshire Hathaway的回报率为26%。周一，苹果股价距离触及3万亿美元估值不到1.00美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's three largest positions after Apple are&nbsp;Bank of America,American Express, and&nbsp;Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.</p><p><blockquote>继苹果之后，伯克希尔最大的三个持仓是美国银行、美国运通和可口可乐，它们合计占股票投资组合价值的30%。伯克希尔仍坐拥约1500亿美元现金尚未投入使用。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Business Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-15 11:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.</b></li>  <li><b>That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.</b></li>  <li><b>Warren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348b5dc216a2be5e154d22e356336b9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周五，Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果8.87亿股股票价值增至1,590亿美元。</b></li><li><b>这使得这些股份价值占伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，占其6490亿美元市值的近25%。</b></li><li><b>Warren Buffett于2016年开始建立Berkshire在苹果的头寸，并一直持续到2018年年中。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway's&nbsp;stake in&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;is no better example of that investment practice.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特以集中投资创造世代财富而闻名，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在苹果的股份就是这种投资实践的最好例子。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its&nbsp;original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.</p><p><blockquote>周五，伯克希尔持有这家iPhone制造商的8.871亿股股票价值飙升至创纪录的1,590亿美元，较其原始成本基础约360亿美元增长了342%。根据伯克希尔第三季度13F文件的数据，这意味着苹果目前的价值超过了伯克希尔2930亿美元股票投资组合的一半。</blockquote></p><p> And assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>假设伯克希尔哈撒韦公司自9月30日以来没有削减其在苹果的头寸，那么这些股权目前约占伯克希尔哈撒韦公司6490亿美元市值的四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> What also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take&nbsp;decades to compound&nbsp;like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特对苹果的专注也值得注意，因为它并不像巴菲特管理的大多数成功投资那样需要几十年的时间才能实现复利。相反，从Berkshire开始增持苹果股份到现在才五年。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has&nbsp;trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple&nbsp;by about 12% since initially building the stake.</p><p><blockquote>该集团于2016年首次购买了苹果股票，并一直购买到2018年中期，在对2020年4比1的股票分割进行调整后，该持仓量突破10亿股。自最初增持苹果股份以来，巴菲特已将其持有的股份削减了约12%。</blockquote></p><p> Barring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to&nbsp;an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.</p><p><blockquote>根据Bespoke的分析，除非自最近一次13F备案以来发生任何变化，否则Berkshire的股票投资组合本季度迄今将上涨13.9%。这一涨幅很大程度上是由苹果本季度迄今超过20%的涨幅推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than&nbsp;$1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，苹果股价上涨了31%，而Berkshire Hathaway的回报率为26%。周一，苹果股价距离触及3万亿美元估值不到1.00美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's three largest positions after Apple are&nbsp;Bank of America,American Express, and&nbsp;Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.</p><p><blockquote>继苹果之后，伯克希尔最大的三个持仓是美国银行、美国运通和可口可乐，它们合计占股票投资组合价值的30%。伯克希尔仍坐拥约1500亿美元现金尚未投入使用。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">Business Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156446659","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.\nThat makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.\nWarren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.\n\nSCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS\nWarren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and Berkshire Hathaway's stake in Apple is no better example of that investment practice.\nBerkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.\nAnd assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.\nWhat also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take decades to compound like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.\nThe conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple by about 12% since initially building the stake.\nBarring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.\nYear-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than $1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.\nBerkshire's three largest positions after Apple are Bank of America,American Express, and Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607294351,"gmtCreate":1639541773273,"gmtModify":1639541773453,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607294351","repostId":"1156446659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156446659","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639540344,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156446659?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156446659","media":"Business Insider","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Frid","content":"<p><ul>  <li><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.</b></li>  <li><b>That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.</b></li>  <li><b>Warren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348b5dc216a2be5e154d22e356336b9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周五，Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果8.87亿股股票价值增至1,590亿美元。</b></li><li><b>这使得这些股份价值占伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，占其6490亿美元市值的近25%。</b></li><li><b>Warren Buffett于2016年开始建立Berkshire在苹果的头寸，并一直持续到2018年年中。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway's&nbsp;stake in&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;is no better example of that investment practice.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特以集中投资创造世代财富而闻名，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在苹果的股份就是这种投资实践的最好例子。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its&nbsp;original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.</p><p><blockquote>周五，伯克希尔持有这家iPhone制造商的8.871亿股股票价值飙升至创纪录的1,590亿美元，较其原始成本基础约360亿美元增长了342%。根据伯克希尔第三季度13F文件的数据，这意味着苹果目前的价值超过了伯克希尔2930亿美元股票投资组合的一半。</blockquote></p><p> And assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>假设伯克希尔哈撒韦公司自9月30日以来没有削减其在苹果的头寸，那么这些股权目前约占伯克希尔哈撒韦公司6490亿美元市值的四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> What also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take&nbsp;decades to compound&nbsp;like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特对苹果的专注也值得注意，因为它并不像巴菲特管理的大多数成功投资那样需要几十年的时间才能实现复利。相反，从Berkshire开始增持苹果股份到现在才五年。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has&nbsp;trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple&nbsp;by about 12% since initially building the stake.</p><p><blockquote>该集团于2016年首次购买了苹果股票，并一直购买到2018年中期，在对2020年4比1的股票分割进行调整后，该持仓量突破10亿股。自最初增持苹果股份以来，巴菲特已将其持有的股份削减了约12%。</blockquote></p><p> Barring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to&nbsp;an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.</p><p><blockquote>根据Bespoke的分析，除非自最近一次13F备案以来发生任何变化，否则Berkshire的股票投资组合本季度迄今将上涨13.9%。这一涨幅很大程度上是由苹果本季度迄今超过20%的涨幅推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than&nbsp;$1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，苹果股价上涨了31%，而Berkshire Hathaway的回报率为26%。周一，苹果股价距离触及3万亿美元估值不到1.00美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's three largest positions after Apple are&nbsp;Bank of America,American Express, and&nbsp;Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.</p><p><blockquote>继苹果之后，伯克希尔最大的三个持仓是美国银行、美国运通和可口可乐，它们合计占股票投资组合价值的30%。伯克希尔仍坐拥约1500亿美元现金尚未投入使用。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Business Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-15 11:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.</b></li>  <li><b>That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.</b></li>  <li><b>Warren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348b5dc216a2be5e154d22e356336b9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周五，Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果8.87亿股股票价值增至1,590亿美元。</b></li><li><b>这使得这些股份价值占伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，占其6490亿美元市值的近25%。</b></li><li><b>Warren Buffett于2016年开始建立Berkshire在苹果的头寸，并一直持续到2018年年中。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway's&nbsp;stake in&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;is no better example of that investment practice.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特以集中投资创造世代财富而闻名，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在苹果的股份就是这种投资实践的最好例子。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its&nbsp;original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.</p><p><blockquote>周五，伯克希尔持有这家iPhone制造商的8.871亿股股票价值飙升至创纪录的1,590亿美元，较其原始成本基础约360亿美元增长了342%。根据伯克希尔第三季度13F文件的数据，这意味着苹果目前的价值超过了伯克希尔2930亿美元股票投资组合的一半。</blockquote></p><p> And assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>假设伯克希尔哈撒韦公司自9月30日以来没有削减其在苹果的头寸，那么这些股权目前约占伯克希尔哈撒韦公司6490亿美元市值的四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> What also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take&nbsp;decades to compound&nbsp;like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特对苹果的专注也值得注意，因为它并不像巴菲特管理的大多数成功投资那样需要几十年的时间才能实现复利。相反，从Berkshire开始增持苹果股份到现在才五年。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has&nbsp;trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple&nbsp;by about 12% since initially building the stake.</p><p><blockquote>该集团于2016年首次购买了苹果股票，并一直购买到2018年中期，在对2020年4比1的股票分割进行调整后，该持仓量突破10亿股。自最初增持苹果股份以来，巴菲特已将其持有的股份削减了约12%。</blockquote></p><p> Barring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to&nbsp;an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.</p><p><blockquote>根据Bespoke的分析，除非自最近一次13F备案以来发生任何变化，否则Berkshire的股票投资组合本季度迄今将上涨13.9%。这一涨幅很大程度上是由苹果本季度迄今超过20%的涨幅推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than&nbsp;$1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，苹果股价上涨了31%，而Berkshire Hathaway的回报率为26%。周一，苹果股价距离触及3万亿美元估值不到1.00美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's three largest positions after Apple are&nbsp;Bank of America,American Express, and&nbsp;Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.</p><p><blockquote>继苹果之后，伯克希尔最大的三个持仓是美国银行、美国运通和可口可乐，它们合计占股票投资组合价值的30%。伯克希尔仍坐拥约1500亿美元现金尚未投入使用。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">Business Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156446659","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.\nThat makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.\nWarren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.\n\nSCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS\nWarren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and Berkshire Hathaway's stake in Apple is no better example of that investment practice.\nBerkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.\nAnd assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.\nWhat also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take decades to compound like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.\nThe conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple by about 12% since initially building the stake.\nBarring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.\nYear-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than $1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.\nBerkshire's three largest positions after Apple are Bank of America,American Express, and Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607062161,"gmtCreate":1639459643079,"gmtModify":1639459643230,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607062161","repostId":"1119480728","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119480728","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639459363,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119480728?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 13:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>迪士尼：并非所有订阅者生来平等</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119480728","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nQQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.\nDIS has not fully bounced ba","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>QQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.</li>  <li>DIS has not fully bounced back from 2020 but it's certainly healing.</li>  <li>DIS is far more like NFLX than MSFT or ADBE, despite any discussion or comparisons related to subscriber growth and associated metrics.</li>  <li>DIS has been far less of a growth stock than&nbsp;NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db18b8191ffe57bbd7ff43b3b4de329b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>QQQ轻松击败了DIS，而SPDR标普500指数ETF也做了同样的事情。</li><li>DIS尚未从2020年完全反弹，但肯定正在愈合。</li><li>尽管存在与用户增长和相关指标相关的任何讨论或比较，但DIS更像NFLX，而不是MSFT或ADBE。</li><li>与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS远不是一只成长型股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>马文·塞缪尔·托伦蒂诺·皮内达/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> I've owned Disney (DIS) since early 2016. I greatly enjoy DIS products and services. I am reasonably pleased with DIS stock performance.</p><p><blockquote>我自2016年初以来一直拥有迪士尼(DIS)。我非常喜欢DIS的产品和服务。我对DIS股票的表现相当满意。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58048f15fcf1af89506563ab33f6e301\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> 53% gains in 5 years isn't terrible but it's not spectacular either. For added perspective, let's quickly compare DIS with the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over 10 years or so.</p><p><blockquote>5年内53%的涨幅并不可怕，但也不引人注目。为了增加视角，让我们快速将DIS与标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）和纳斯达克100（QQQ）进行10年左右的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2cb75ad2becfcf9268f372150a7698\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, I zoomed out for a bigger picture view of things. Clearly, QQQ has crushed DIS. Over the same time, DIS has done about as well as SPY. It's clear the 2020 was rough on the price of DIS stock. However, it was also an incredible pivot opportunity for the business with Disney Plus, the streaming home of Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and way more.</p><p><blockquote>如你所见，我缩小了以获得更大的图片视图。显然，QQQ已经碾压了DIS。与此同时，DIS的表现与SPDR标普500指数ETF不相上下。很明显，2020年对DIS股票的价格来说是艰难的。然而，这也是Disney Plus业务的一个令人难以置信的关键机会，Disney Plus是迪士尼、皮克斯、漫威、星球大战、国家地理等的流媒体之家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model Update</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式更新</b></blockquote></p><p> It's clear that DIS has been incredibly focused on subscribers for Disney Plus. Here's a quick peek, from the&nbsp;Q4 2021 Earnings Call:</p><p><blockquote>很明显，DIS非常关注Disney Plus的订户。以下是2021年第四季度收益看涨期权的快速浏览：</blockquote></p><p>   On the Direct-to-Consumer side, we are extremely pleased with the success of our portfolio streaming services. Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu continue to perform incredibly well with a 118.1 million, 17.1 million, and 43.8 million subscribers, respectively, for a total of a 179 million subscriptions. To put this growth in perspective, in the past fiscal year alone, we have grown the total number of subscriptions across our DTC portfolio by 48%, and Disney+ subs in particular by 60%.  Now, here's the good news and bad news. DIS leadership is planning to reach 230 million to 260 million paid subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024. Obviously, that's phenomenal growth and investors should cheer. However, the dark side is that this growth isn't free.<b>DIS doesn't expect their portfolio of streaming services to reach profitability until 2024.</b>Ouch.</p><p><blockquote>在直接面向消费者方面，我们对我们组合流媒体服务的成功感到非常高兴。Disney+、ESPN+和Hulu继续表现出色，分别拥有1.181亿、1710万和4380万订阅用户，订阅总数为1.79亿。从这个角度来看，仅在上一财年，我们的DTC产品组合的订阅总数就增长了48%，尤其是Disney+订阅增长了60%。现在，这是好消息和坏消息。DIS领导层计划到2024财年末，全球付费用户数量达到2.3亿至2.6亿。显然，这是惊人的增长，投资者应该欢呼。然而，阴暗面是这种增长不是免费的。<b>DIS预计他们的流媒体服务组合要到2024年才能实现盈利。</b>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> The key point is that DIS is not simply bolting on Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, Hulu and so on, and adding profits to the bottom line. Instead, getting to this current level of subscribers has been chewing up time and resources. And, it'll be nasty for years. The investment will drain resources. More about this later.</p><p><blockquote>关键是，DIS并不是简单地抢占Disney Plus、ESPN Plus、Hulu等，为底线增加利润。相反，达到目前的用户水平一直在消耗时间和资源。而且，这将会持续很多年。这项投资会耗尽资源。稍后会详细介绍。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, very long term investors can cheer. DIS literally has the best intellectual media assets in the world. Really, there isn't any company even close. The library is amazing, huge, and growing.See for yourself.</p><p><blockquote>当然，长期投资者可以欢呼。DIS拥有世界上最好的知识媒体资产。真的，附近没有任何公司。这个图书馆很棒，很大，而且还在增长。你自己看吧。</blockquote></p><p> As a quick aside, most people, and most analysts expected a bigger \"snap back\" from 2020, especially in relation to park visits and related activity. For example, here's what we learned about&nbsp;attendance in August 2021:</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，大多数人和大多数分析师预计2020年将出现更大的“snap回归”，特别是在公园参观和相关活动方面。例如，以下是我们了解到的2021年8月的出勤情况：</blockquote></p><p>   Disney world does not share its actual capacity nor the number of attendees they get daily. But as stated above, the estimated number of average daily attendees was 57,000 before the pandemic started. So, at present, it might be welcoming a maximum of 35,000 guests daily&nbsp;  <b>running with a 35% capacity</b>. [Emphasis: Author]  Big picture, I'm not too worried about the parks and related real-world experiences offered by DIS. It might take longer to get running at full steam, but DIS can do it. I'm a bit more concerned that investors are expecting too much from DIS streaming services, without fully considering the costs. This is especially true for short term investors and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼世界不分享它的实际容量，也不分享他们每天的与会者人数。但如上所述，在疫情开始之前，估计日均出席人数为57,000人。因此，目前，它可能每天最多接待35,000名客人<b>以35%的容量运行</b>.[强调：作者]总的来说，我不太担心DIS提供的公园和相关的现实世界体验。全速运行可能需要更长的时间，但DIS可以做到。我更担心的是，投资者对DIS流媒体服务期望过高，而没有充分考虑成本。对于短期投资者和投机者来说尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Disney Is Not Microsoft or Adobe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迪斯尼不是微软或Adobe</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts like to compare DIS to enterprise software companies,<i>as if all subscribers are created equal</i>. Let's consider two incredible businesses. Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) have done exceptionally well in recent years, compared to DIS.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢将DIS比作企业软件公司，<i>好像所有订户都是平等的</i>.让我们考虑两个令人难以置信的业务。与DIS相比，微软(MSFT)和Adobe(ADBE)近年来的表现都非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247db57795d4cce4d0d919346b84c7f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, MSFT and ADBE have trounced DIS. In part, here's why:</p><p><blockquote>显然，MSFT和ADBE已经击败了DIS。部分原因如下：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90248d3aef70628dea5b4029b79b516\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> P/S for both MSFT and ADBE has roughly doubled. At a high level, prices are moving up faster than revenue generated for MSFT and ADBE. Meanwhile, investors place less value on DIS revenue. DIS has pretty much moved sideways.</p><p><blockquote>MSFT和ADBE的市盈率都大约翻了一番。在高水平上，价格的上涨速度快于MSFT和ADBE产生的收入。与此同时，投资者对DIS收入的重视程度较低。DIS几乎已经横向移动。</blockquote></p><p> Let's talk some real numbers. MSFT has grown earnings by 17% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.63 and in 2021 it's about $8. ADBE has grown earnings by about 29% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.08 and it's expected to hit a staggering $12.46 this year. Meanwhile, here's how DIS looks:</p><p><blockquote>我们来谈谈一些真实的数字。过去10年，MSFT的盈利每年增长17%。2015年，每股收益为2.63美元，2021年约为8美元。过去10年，ADBE的盈利每年增长约29%。2015年，每股收益为2.08美元，预计今年将达到惊人的12.46美元。同时，DIS的外观如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb56eaa4d09a70ca4f320a0e111896b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FASTgraphs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FASTgraphs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> EPS might get back to 2015 levels in 2023. The dividend was killed off. DIS share price is dramatically higher, even now, compared to earnings. There's a lot of pain in this chart.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益可能会在2023年恢复到2015年的水平。股息被取消了。即使是现在，与盈利相比，DIS的股价也要高得多。这张图表里有很多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p> All if this isn't to bash DIS or to imply that the products or business is terrible. The DIS brand is pristine. Leadership is strong. The company isn't going to suddenly fall off the face of the Earth.<i>The business is amazing</i>.</p><p><blockquote>如果这不是为了抨击DIS或暗示产品或业务很糟糕的话。DIS品牌是原始的。领导力强。该公司不会突然从地球上消失。<i>生意很惊人</i>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有订户都是平等的</b></blockquote></p><p> I'm not too keen to do this, but here's Netflix (NFLX) versus DIS.</p><p><blockquote>我不太热衷于这样做，但这是Netflix(NFLX)与DIS的对比。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55b99727d2cfebd285167f115f4387ae\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The only point I want to make is that NFLX shareholders have done far better than DIS shareholders. And, for a different perspective, here's how $10K would have done over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>我唯一想说的是，NFLX股东的表现远远好于DIS股东。从不同的角度来看，以下是1万美元在过去五年中的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4539b42cb1304e691ad2b38dbcbf4c2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's very hard for me to say that DIS is \"on sale\" when I look at the relatively flat performance over the last five years. While I think of DIS as a growth stock,<i>it's less of a growth stock</i>&nbsp;than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</p><p><blockquote>当我看到过去五年相对平淡的表现时，我很难说DIS正在“打折”。虽然我认为DIS是一只成长型股票，<i>它不是成长型股票</i>比NFLX、MSFT和ADBE。</blockquote></p><p> In large part, I believe this is all about our definition of subscribers. I'll come back to that in a second. First, feast your eyes on this:</p><p><blockquote>在很大程度上，我相信这就是我们对订户的定义。我一会儿会回到这个话题。首先，大饱眼福：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dfdf6d35c4eba3617e6fec280f09282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What you're seeing is profit margin for DIS, NFLX, MSFT and ADBE. Quite frankly, this paints a damning picture of DIS, especially since 2020. What's most impressive, on the other hand, is how MSFT and ADBE have had has consistently high and growing profit margins. I've got to say, I'm actually a bit surprised that NFLX just keeps getting stronger and stronger in this department as well.</p><p><blockquote>您看到的是DIS、NFLX、MSFT和ADBE的利润率。坦率地说，这为DIS描绘了一幅糟糕的画面，尤其是自2020年以来。另一方面，最令人印象深刻的是MSFT和ADBE的利润率一直很高且不断增长。我不得不说，我实际上有点惊讶NFLX在这个部门也变得越来越强大。</blockquote></p><p> By the way, as a sidebar, it's easy to complain about the NFLX P/E ratio. It's over 50 right now. But, at the same time, DIS is at 37, MSFT is at 37, and ADBE is at 52. In that respect, they are all quite overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，作为侧边栏，很容易抱怨NFLX市盈率。现在已经50多了。但与此同时，DIS为37，MSFT为37，ADBE为52。在这方面，它们都被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrap Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, here are my biggest points. NFLX has spent more than DIS on content and also has first mover advantage, loyalty and entrenchment. Many people have both NFLX and DIS, so I see less of a \"war\" than most people. Furthermore, it appears that NFLX has done an outstanding operational job, and their capital allocation has been strong. It's hard to look at this chart and dismiss NFLX. Clearly, it's a well-run company.</p><p><blockquote>现在，以下是我最大的观点。NFLX在内容上的支出超过了DIS，并且还拥有先发优势、忠诚度和巩固地位。很多人都有NFLX和DIS，所以我比大多数人看到的“战争”更少。此外，NFLX的运营工作似乎非常出色，他们的资本配置也很强劲。看着这张图表，很难忽视NFLX。显然，这是一家运营良好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c9d98acfdd8206fa2c0323144db713\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This next chart is extremely noisy, but you can scroll down and see the truth with your own two eyes. DIS has rather poor ROE, ROA and ROIC compared to NFLX, MSFT and ADBE.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表非常嘈杂，但你可以向下滚动，用你自己的两只眼睛看到真相。与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS的ROE、ROA和ROIC相当差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5aaf232d38eaceea4d9621f81a7a92f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To be fair, DIS was doing a pretty good job through early 2019. However, very importantly,<i>the drops appear to have started before 2020</i>. We cannot blame the pandemic for the decline in ROE, ROA and ROIC.</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，DIS在2019年初做得相当不错。然而，非常重要的是，<i>下降似乎在2020年之前就开始了</i>我们不能将ROE、ROA和ROIC的下降归咎于疫情。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear,DIS is going to be going gangbusters on content.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，DIS将在内容上大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p>   Disney plans to increase its overall content spend to around $33bn in 2022, marking an $8bn rise from the previous year.  Furthermore, the idea is that DIS will be&nbsp;rapidly growing the subscriber base.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼计划在2022年将其整体内容支出增加至330亿美元左右，比上一年增加80亿美元。此外，这个想法是DIS将迅速扩大用户群。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   Disney+ is expected to add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million.  In short, DIS isn't about to be left in the dust by NFLX. Something like 60 unscripted series, 30 comedy series and 25 drama shows will be produced. There's really too much to list here. Money is being put to work by DIS.</p><p><blockquote>Disney+预计在2021年至2026年间将增加1.4亿订阅用户，使其总数达到2.71亿。与此同时，Netflix同期将增加5300万订阅用户，使其到2026年订阅用户总数达到2.75亿。简而言之，DIS不会被NFLX远远甩在身后。大约60部无剧本系列、30部喜剧系列和25部戏剧将被制作出来。这里真的有太多了，无法一一列举。DIS正在投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Now, shifting gears, I have to say that both MSFT and ADBE have dramatically different types of subscribers. DIS and NFLX satisfy entertainment desires. These are wants,<i>not needs</i>.</p><p><blockquote>现在，换个角度，我不得不说MSFT和ADBE的订户类型截然不同。DIS和NFLX满足娱乐欲望。这些都是需求，<i>不需要</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Here's a good way to&nbsp;think about MSFT and ADBE:</p><p><blockquote>以下是思考MSFT和ADBE的好方法：</blockquote></p><p>   Both companies armed businesses big and small with the tools needed to stay in business since the pandemic. As the world moved to virtual work and school, PDFs with virtual signatures and Word docs with important information became standard.  In other words, MSFT and ADBE subscribers aren't \"addicted\" to the software, as much as they are<i>required to use it to do work</i>. When your job is on the line, you've got to be using industry standard tools. Furthermore, both NFLX and DIS are B2C whereas MSFT and ADBE are B2B. It's almost impossible to compare these companies, in terms of subscribers. Sure, we can discuss subscriber counts, subscriber growth, and so forth. But, MSFT and ADBE provide software to companies, and users must use those tools. They are sticky out of necessity, not mere desire. Therefore, let's all be very careful about how we think about DIS, and how we make comparisons.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行以来，两家公司都为大大小小的企业提供了维持业务所需的工具。随着世界转向虚拟工作和学校，带有虚拟签名的PDF和包含重要信息的Word文档成为标准。换句话说，MSFT和ADBE的用户并不像他们那样对软件“上瘾”<i>需要用它来做工作</i>.当你的工作岌岌可危时，你必须使用行业标准的工具。此外，NFLX和DIS都是B2C，而MSFT和ADBE是B2B。就订户而言，几乎不可能比较这些公司。当然，我们可以讨论用户数量、用户增长等等。但是，MSFT和ADBE向公司提供软件，用户必须使用这些工具。它们粘在一起是出于需要，而不仅仅是欲望。因此，让我们都非常小心我们如何看待DIS，以及我们如何进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> Putting all of this together, I still believe that DIS is a wonderful business. However, I would be cautious about adding a ton, especially if that decision is based on dazzling subscriber growth, or incredible content development. At this point, I see DIS as a reasonable hold.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我仍然相信DIS是一项出色的业务。然而，我会对增加一吨持谨慎态度，特别是如果这个决定是基于令人眼花缭乱的订户增长或令人难以置信的内容开发。在这一点上，我认为DIS是合理的持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>迪士尼：并非所有订阅者生来平等</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>迪士尼：并非所有订阅者生来平等</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 13:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>QQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.</li>  <li>DIS has not fully bounced back from 2020 but it's certainly healing.</li>  <li>DIS is far more like NFLX than MSFT or ADBE, despite any discussion or comparisons related to subscriber growth and associated metrics.</li>  <li>DIS has been far less of a growth stock than&nbsp;NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db18b8191ffe57bbd7ff43b3b4de329b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>QQQ轻松击败了DIS，而SPDR标普500指数ETF也做了同样的事情。</li><li>DIS尚未从2020年完全反弹，但肯定正在愈合。</li><li>尽管存在与用户增长和相关指标相关的任何讨论或比较，但DIS更像NFLX，而不是MSFT或ADBE。</li><li>与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS远不是一只成长型股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>马文·塞缪尔·托伦蒂诺·皮内达/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> I've owned Disney (DIS) since early 2016. I greatly enjoy DIS products and services. I am reasonably pleased with DIS stock performance.</p><p><blockquote>我自2016年初以来一直拥有迪士尼(DIS)。我非常喜欢DIS的产品和服务。我对DIS股票的表现相当满意。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58048f15fcf1af89506563ab33f6e301\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> 53% gains in 5 years isn't terrible but it's not spectacular either. For added perspective, let's quickly compare DIS with the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over 10 years or so.</p><p><blockquote>5年内53%的涨幅并不可怕，但也不引人注目。为了增加视角，让我们快速将DIS与标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）和纳斯达克100（QQQ）进行10年左右的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2cb75ad2becfcf9268f372150a7698\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, I zoomed out for a bigger picture view of things. Clearly, QQQ has crushed DIS. Over the same time, DIS has done about as well as SPY. It's clear the 2020 was rough on the price of DIS stock. However, it was also an incredible pivot opportunity for the business with Disney Plus, the streaming home of Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and way more.</p><p><blockquote>如你所见，我缩小了以获得更大的图片视图。显然，QQQ已经碾压了DIS。与此同时，DIS的表现与SPDR标普500指数ETF不相上下。很明显，2020年对DIS股票的价格来说是艰难的。然而，这也是Disney Plus业务的一个令人难以置信的关键机会，Disney Plus是迪士尼、皮克斯、漫威、星球大战、国家地理等的流媒体之家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model Update</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式更新</b></blockquote></p><p> It's clear that DIS has been incredibly focused on subscribers for Disney Plus. Here's a quick peek, from the&nbsp;Q4 2021 Earnings Call:</p><p><blockquote>很明显，DIS非常关注Disney Plus的订户。以下是2021年第四季度收益看涨期权的快速浏览：</blockquote></p><p>   On the Direct-to-Consumer side, we are extremely pleased with the success of our portfolio streaming services. Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu continue to perform incredibly well with a 118.1 million, 17.1 million, and 43.8 million subscribers, respectively, for a total of a 179 million subscriptions. To put this growth in perspective, in the past fiscal year alone, we have grown the total number of subscriptions across our DTC portfolio by 48%, and Disney+ subs in particular by 60%.  Now, here's the good news and bad news. DIS leadership is planning to reach 230 million to 260 million paid subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024. Obviously, that's phenomenal growth and investors should cheer. However, the dark side is that this growth isn't free.<b>DIS doesn't expect their portfolio of streaming services to reach profitability until 2024.</b>Ouch.</p><p><blockquote>在直接面向消费者方面，我们对我们组合流媒体服务的成功感到非常高兴。Disney+、ESPN+和Hulu继续表现出色，分别拥有1.181亿、1710万和4380万订阅用户，订阅总数为1.79亿。从这个角度来看，仅在上一财年，我们的DTC产品组合的订阅总数就增长了48%，尤其是Disney+订阅增长了60%。现在，这是好消息和坏消息。DIS领导层计划到2024财年末，全球付费用户数量达到2.3亿至2.6亿。显然，这是惊人的增长，投资者应该欢呼。然而，阴暗面是这种增长不是免费的。<b>DIS预计他们的流媒体服务组合要到2024年才能实现盈利。</b>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> The key point is that DIS is not simply bolting on Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, Hulu and so on, and adding profits to the bottom line. Instead, getting to this current level of subscribers has been chewing up time and resources. And, it'll be nasty for years. The investment will drain resources. More about this later.</p><p><blockquote>关键是，DIS并不是简单地抢占Disney Plus、ESPN Plus、Hulu等，为底线增加利润。相反，达到目前的用户水平一直在消耗时间和资源。而且，这将会持续很多年。这项投资会耗尽资源。稍后会详细介绍。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, very long term investors can cheer. DIS literally has the best intellectual media assets in the world. Really, there isn't any company even close. The library is amazing, huge, and growing.See for yourself.</p><p><blockquote>当然，长期投资者可以欢呼。DIS拥有世界上最好的知识媒体资产。真的，附近没有任何公司。这个图书馆很棒，很大，而且还在增长。你自己看吧。</blockquote></p><p> As a quick aside, most people, and most analysts expected a bigger \"snap back\" from 2020, especially in relation to park visits and related activity. For example, here's what we learned about&nbsp;attendance in August 2021:</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，大多数人和大多数分析师预计2020年将出现更大的“snap回归”，特别是在公园参观和相关活动方面。例如，以下是我们了解到的2021年8月的出勤情况：</blockquote></p><p>   Disney world does not share its actual capacity nor the number of attendees they get daily. But as stated above, the estimated number of average daily attendees was 57,000 before the pandemic started. So, at present, it might be welcoming a maximum of 35,000 guests daily&nbsp;  <b>running with a 35% capacity</b>. [Emphasis: Author]  Big picture, I'm not too worried about the parks and related real-world experiences offered by DIS. It might take longer to get running at full steam, but DIS can do it. I'm a bit more concerned that investors are expecting too much from DIS streaming services, without fully considering the costs. This is especially true for short term investors and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼世界不分享它的实际容量，也不分享他们每天的与会者人数。但如上所述，在疫情开始之前，估计日均出席人数为57,000人。因此，目前，它可能每天最多接待35,000名客人<b>以35%的容量运行</b>.[强调：作者]总的来说，我不太担心DIS提供的公园和相关的现实世界体验。全速运行可能需要更长的时间，但DIS可以做到。我更担心的是，投资者对DIS流媒体服务期望过高，而没有充分考虑成本。对于短期投资者和投机者来说尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Disney Is Not Microsoft or Adobe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迪斯尼不是微软或Adobe</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts like to compare DIS to enterprise software companies,<i>as if all subscribers are created equal</i>. Let's consider two incredible businesses. Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) have done exceptionally well in recent years, compared to DIS.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢将DIS比作企业软件公司，<i>好像所有订户都是平等的</i>.让我们考虑两个令人难以置信的业务。与DIS相比，微软(MSFT)和Adobe(ADBE)近年来的表现都非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247db57795d4cce4d0d919346b84c7f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, MSFT and ADBE have trounced DIS. In part, here's why:</p><p><blockquote>显然，MSFT和ADBE已经击败了DIS。部分原因如下：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90248d3aef70628dea5b4029b79b516\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> P/S for both MSFT and ADBE has roughly doubled. At a high level, prices are moving up faster than revenue generated for MSFT and ADBE. Meanwhile, investors place less value on DIS revenue. DIS has pretty much moved sideways.</p><p><blockquote>MSFT和ADBE的市盈率都大约翻了一番。在高水平上，价格的上涨速度快于MSFT和ADBE产生的收入。与此同时，投资者对DIS收入的重视程度较低。DIS几乎已经横向移动。</blockquote></p><p> Let's talk some real numbers. MSFT has grown earnings by 17% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.63 and in 2021 it's about $8. ADBE has grown earnings by about 29% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.08 and it's expected to hit a staggering $12.46 this year. Meanwhile, here's how DIS looks:</p><p><blockquote>我们来谈谈一些真实的数字。过去10年，MSFT的盈利每年增长17%。2015年，每股收益为2.63美元，2021年约为8美元。过去10年，ADBE的盈利每年增长约29%。2015年，每股收益为2.08美元，预计今年将达到惊人的12.46美元。同时，DIS的外观如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb56eaa4d09a70ca4f320a0e111896b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FASTgraphs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FASTgraphs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> EPS might get back to 2015 levels in 2023. The dividend was killed off. DIS share price is dramatically higher, even now, compared to earnings. There's a lot of pain in this chart.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益可能会在2023年恢复到2015年的水平。股息被取消了。即使是现在，与盈利相比，DIS的股价也要高得多。这张图表里有很多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p> All if this isn't to bash DIS or to imply that the products or business is terrible. The DIS brand is pristine. Leadership is strong. The company isn't going to suddenly fall off the face of the Earth.<i>The business is amazing</i>.</p><p><blockquote>如果这不是为了抨击DIS或暗示产品或业务很糟糕的话。DIS品牌是原始的。领导力强。该公司不会突然从地球上消失。<i>生意很惊人</i>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有订户都是平等的</b></blockquote></p><p> I'm not too keen to do this, but here's Netflix (NFLX) versus DIS.</p><p><blockquote>我不太热衷于这样做，但这是Netflix(NFLX)与DIS的对比。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55b99727d2cfebd285167f115f4387ae\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The only point I want to make is that NFLX shareholders have done far better than DIS shareholders. And, for a different perspective, here's how $10K would have done over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>我唯一想说的是，NFLX股东的表现远远好于DIS股东。从不同的角度来看，以下是1万美元在过去五年中的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4539b42cb1304e691ad2b38dbcbf4c2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's very hard for me to say that DIS is \"on sale\" when I look at the relatively flat performance over the last five years. While I think of DIS as a growth stock,<i>it's less of a growth stock</i>&nbsp;than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</p><p><blockquote>当我看到过去五年相对平淡的表现时，我很难说DIS正在“打折”。虽然我认为DIS是一只成长型股票，<i>它不是成长型股票</i>比NFLX、MSFT和ADBE。</blockquote></p><p> In large part, I believe this is all about our definition of subscribers. I'll come back to that in a second. First, feast your eyes on this:</p><p><blockquote>在很大程度上，我相信这就是我们对订户的定义。我一会儿会回到这个话题。首先，大饱眼福：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dfdf6d35c4eba3617e6fec280f09282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What you're seeing is profit margin for DIS, NFLX, MSFT and ADBE. Quite frankly, this paints a damning picture of DIS, especially since 2020. What's most impressive, on the other hand, is how MSFT and ADBE have had has consistently high and growing profit margins. I've got to say, I'm actually a bit surprised that NFLX just keeps getting stronger and stronger in this department as well.</p><p><blockquote>您看到的是DIS、NFLX、MSFT和ADBE的利润率。坦率地说，这为DIS描绘了一幅糟糕的画面，尤其是自2020年以来。另一方面，最令人印象深刻的是MSFT和ADBE的利润率一直很高且不断增长。我不得不说，我实际上有点惊讶NFLX在这个部门也变得越来越强大。</blockquote></p><p> By the way, as a sidebar, it's easy to complain about the NFLX P/E ratio. It's over 50 right now. But, at the same time, DIS is at 37, MSFT is at 37, and ADBE is at 52. In that respect, they are all quite overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，作为侧边栏，很容易抱怨NFLX市盈率。现在已经50多了。但与此同时，DIS为37，MSFT为37，ADBE为52。在这方面，它们都被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrap Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, here are my biggest points. NFLX has spent more than DIS on content and also has first mover advantage, loyalty and entrenchment. Many people have both NFLX and DIS, so I see less of a \"war\" than most people. Furthermore, it appears that NFLX has done an outstanding operational job, and their capital allocation has been strong. It's hard to look at this chart and dismiss NFLX. Clearly, it's a well-run company.</p><p><blockquote>现在，以下是我最大的观点。NFLX在内容上的支出超过了DIS，并且还拥有先发优势、忠诚度和巩固地位。很多人都有NFLX和DIS，所以我比大多数人看到的“战争”更少。此外，NFLX的运营工作似乎非常出色，他们的资本配置也很强劲。看着这张图表，很难忽视NFLX。显然，这是一家运营良好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c9d98acfdd8206fa2c0323144db713\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This next chart is extremely noisy, but you can scroll down and see the truth with your own two eyes. DIS has rather poor ROE, ROA and ROIC compared to NFLX, MSFT and ADBE.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表非常嘈杂，但你可以向下滚动，用你自己的两只眼睛看到真相。与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS的ROE、ROA和ROIC相当差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5aaf232d38eaceea4d9621f81a7a92f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To be fair, DIS was doing a pretty good job through early 2019. However, very importantly,<i>the drops appear to have started before 2020</i>. We cannot blame the pandemic for the decline in ROE, ROA and ROIC.</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，DIS在2019年初做得相当不错。然而，非常重要的是，<i>下降似乎在2020年之前就开始了</i>我们不能将ROE、ROA和ROIC的下降归咎于疫情。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear,DIS is going to be going gangbusters on content.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，DIS将在内容上大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p>   Disney plans to increase its overall content spend to around $33bn in 2022, marking an $8bn rise from the previous year.  Furthermore, the idea is that DIS will be&nbsp;rapidly growing the subscriber base.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼计划在2022年将其整体内容支出增加至330亿美元左右，比上一年增加80亿美元。此外，这个想法是DIS将迅速扩大用户群。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   Disney+ is expected to add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million.  In short, DIS isn't about to be left in the dust by NFLX. Something like 60 unscripted series, 30 comedy series and 25 drama shows will be produced. There's really too much to list here. Money is being put to work by DIS.</p><p><blockquote>Disney+预计在2021年至2026年间将增加1.4亿订阅用户，使其总数达到2.71亿。与此同时，Netflix同期将增加5300万订阅用户，使其到2026年订阅用户总数达到2.75亿。简而言之，DIS不会被NFLX远远甩在身后。大约60部无剧本系列、30部喜剧系列和25部戏剧将被制作出来。这里真的有太多了，无法一一列举。DIS正在投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Now, shifting gears, I have to say that both MSFT and ADBE have dramatically different types of subscribers. DIS and NFLX satisfy entertainment desires. These are wants,<i>not needs</i>.</p><p><blockquote>现在，换个角度，我不得不说MSFT和ADBE的订户类型截然不同。DIS和NFLX满足娱乐欲望。这些都是需求，<i>不需要</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Here's a good way to&nbsp;think about MSFT and ADBE:</p><p><blockquote>以下是思考MSFT和ADBE的好方法：</blockquote></p><p>   Both companies armed businesses big and small with the tools needed to stay in business since the pandemic. As the world moved to virtual work and school, PDFs with virtual signatures and Word docs with important information became standard.  In other words, MSFT and ADBE subscribers aren't \"addicted\" to the software, as much as they are<i>required to use it to do work</i>. When your job is on the line, you've got to be using industry standard tools. Furthermore, both NFLX and DIS are B2C whereas MSFT and ADBE are B2B. It's almost impossible to compare these companies, in terms of subscribers. Sure, we can discuss subscriber counts, subscriber growth, and so forth. But, MSFT and ADBE provide software to companies, and users must use those tools. They are sticky out of necessity, not mere desire. Therefore, let's all be very careful about how we think about DIS, and how we make comparisons.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行以来，两家公司都为大大小小的企业提供了维持业务所需的工具。随着世界转向虚拟工作和学校，带有虚拟签名的PDF和包含重要信息的Word文档成为标准。换句话说，MSFT和ADBE的用户并不像他们那样对软件“上瘾”<i>需要用它来做工作</i>.当你的工作岌岌可危时，你必须使用行业标准的工具。此外，NFLX和DIS都是B2C，而MSFT和ADBE是B2B。就订户而言，几乎不可能比较这些公司。当然，我们可以讨论用户数量、用户增长等等。但是，MSFT和ADBE向公司提供软件，用户必须使用这些工具。它们粘在一起是出于需要，而不仅仅是欲望。因此，让我们都非常小心我们如何看待DIS，以及我们如何进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> Putting all of this together, I still believe that DIS is a wonderful business. However, I would be cautious about adding a ton, especially if that decision is based on dazzling subscriber growth, or incredible content development. At this point, I see DIS as a reasonable hold.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我仍然相信DIS是一项出色的业务。然而，我会对增加一吨持谨慎态度，特别是如果这个决定是基于令人眼花缭乱的订户增长或令人难以置信的内容开发。在这一点上，我认为DIS是合理的持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475050-disney-all-subscribers-are-not-created-equal\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475050-disney-all-subscribers-are-not-created-equal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119480728","content_text":"Summary\n\nQQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.\nDIS has not fully bounced back from 2020 but it's certainly healing.\nDIS is far more like NFLX than MSFT or ADBE, despite any discussion or comparisons related to subscriber growth and associated metrics.\nDIS has been far less of a growth stock than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.\n\nMarvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nBackground\nI've owned Disney (DIS) since early 2016. I greatly enjoy DIS products and services. I am reasonably pleased with DIS stock performance.\nData by YCharts\n53% gains in 5 years isn't terrible but it's not spectacular either. For added perspective, let's quickly compare DIS with the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over 10 years or so.\nData by YCharts\nAs you can see, I zoomed out for a bigger picture view of things. Clearly, QQQ has crushed DIS. Over the same time, DIS has done about as well as SPY. It's clear the 2020 was rough on the price of DIS stock. However, it was also an incredible pivot opportunity for the business with Disney Plus, the streaming home of Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and way more.\nBusiness Model Update\nIt's clear that DIS has been incredibly focused on subscribers for Disney Plus. Here's a quick peek, from the Q4 2021 Earnings Call:\n\n On the Direct-to-Consumer side, we are extremely pleased with the success of our portfolio streaming services. Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu continue to perform incredibly well with a 118.1 million, 17.1 million, and 43.8 million subscribers, respectively, for a total of a 179 million subscriptions. To put this growth in perspective, in the past fiscal year alone, we have grown the total number of subscriptions across our DTC portfolio by 48%, and Disney+ subs in particular by 60%.\n\nNow, here's the good news and bad news. DIS leadership is planning to reach 230 million to 260 million paid subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024. Obviously, that's phenomenal growth and investors should cheer. However, the dark side is that this growth isn't free.DIS doesn't expect their portfolio of streaming services to reach profitability until 2024.Ouch.\nThe key point is that DIS is not simply bolting on Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, Hulu and so on, and adding profits to the bottom line. Instead, getting to this current level of subscribers has been chewing up time and resources. And, it'll be nasty for years. The investment will drain resources. More about this later.\nOf course, very long term investors can cheer. DIS literally has the best intellectual media assets in the world. Really, there isn't any company even close. The library is amazing, huge, and growing.See for yourself.\nAs a quick aside, most people, and most analysts expected a bigger \"snap back\" from 2020, especially in relation to park visits and related activity. For example, here's what we learned about attendance in August 2021:\n\n Disney world does not share its actual capacity nor the number of attendees they get daily. But as stated above, the estimated number of average daily attendees was 57,000 before the pandemic started. So, at present, it might be welcoming a maximum of 35,000 guests daily \n running with a 35% capacity. [Emphasis: Author]\n\nBig picture, I'm not too worried about the parks and related real-world experiences offered by DIS. It might take longer to get running at full steam, but DIS can do it. I'm a bit more concerned that investors are expecting too much from DIS streaming services, without fully considering the costs. This is especially true for short term investors and speculators.\nDisney Is Not Microsoft or Adobe\nAnalysts like to compare DIS to enterprise software companies,as if all subscribers are created equal. Let's consider two incredible businesses. Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) have done exceptionally well in recent years, compared to DIS.\nData by YCharts\nClearly, MSFT and ADBE have trounced DIS. In part, here's why:\nData by YCharts\nP/S for both MSFT and ADBE has roughly doubled. At a high level, prices are moving up faster than revenue generated for MSFT and ADBE. Meanwhile, investors place less value on DIS revenue. DIS has pretty much moved sideways.\nLet's talk some real numbers. MSFT has grown earnings by 17% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.63 and in 2021 it's about $8. ADBE has grown earnings by about 29% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.08 and it's expected to hit a staggering $12.46 this year. Meanwhile, here's how DIS looks:\nSource: FASTgraphs\nEPS might get back to 2015 levels in 2023. The dividend was killed off. DIS share price is dramatically higher, even now, compared to earnings. There's a lot of pain in this chart.\nAll if this isn't to bash DIS or to imply that the products or business is terrible. The DIS brand is pristine. Leadership is strong. The company isn't going to suddenly fall off the face of the Earth.The business is amazing.\nAll Subscribers Are Not Created Equal\nI'm not too keen to do this, but here's Netflix (NFLX) versus DIS.\nData by YCharts\nThe only point I want to make is that NFLX shareholders have done far better than DIS shareholders. And, for a different perspective, here's how $10K would have done over the last five years.\nData by YCharts\nIt's very hard for me to say that DIS is \"on sale\" when I look at the relatively flat performance over the last five years. While I think of DIS as a growth stock,it's less of a growth stock than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.\nIn large part, I believe this is all about our definition of subscribers. I'll come back to that in a second. First, feast your eyes on this:\nData by YCharts\nWhat you're seeing is profit margin for DIS, NFLX, MSFT and ADBE. Quite frankly, this paints a damning picture of DIS, especially since 2020. What's most impressive, on the other hand, is how MSFT and ADBE have had has consistently high and growing profit margins. I've got to say, I'm actually a bit surprised that NFLX just keeps getting stronger and stronger in this department as well.\nBy the way, as a sidebar, it's easy to complain about the NFLX P/E ratio. It's over 50 right now. But, at the same time, DIS is at 37, MSFT is at 37, and ADBE is at 52. In that respect, they are all quite overvalued.\nWrap Up\nNow, here are my biggest points. NFLX has spent more than DIS on content and also has first mover advantage, loyalty and entrenchment. Many people have both NFLX and DIS, so I see less of a \"war\" than most people. Furthermore, it appears that NFLX has done an outstanding operational job, and their capital allocation has been strong. It's hard to look at this chart and dismiss NFLX. Clearly, it's a well-run company.\nData by YCharts\nThis next chart is extremely noisy, but you can scroll down and see the truth with your own two eyes. DIS has rather poor ROE, ROA and ROIC compared to NFLX, MSFT and ADBE.\nData by YCharts\nTo be fair, DIS was doing a pretty good job through early 2019. However, very importantly,the drops appear to have started before 2020. We cannot blame the pandemic for the decline in ROE, ROA and ROIC.\nTo be clear,DIS is going to be going gangbusters on content.\n\n Disney plans to increase its overall content spend to around $33bn in 2022, marking an $8bn rise from the previous year.\n\nFurthermore, the idea is that DIS will be rapidly growing the subscriber base.\n\n Disney+ is expected to add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million.\n\nIn short, DIS isn't about to be left in the dust by NFLX. Something like 60 unscripted series, 30 comedy series and 25 drama shows will be produced. There's really too much to list here. Money is being put to work by DIS.\nNow, shifting gears, I have to say that both MSFT and ADBE have dramatically different types of subscribers. DIS and NFLX satisfy entertainment desires. These are wants,not needs.\nHere's a good way to think about MSFT and ADBE:\n\n Both companies armed businesses big and small with the tools needed to stay in business since the pandemic. As the world moved to virtual work and school, PDFs with virtual signatures and Word docs with important information became standard.\n\nIn other words, MSFT and ADBE subscribers aren't \"addicted\" to the software, as much as they arerequired to use it to do work. When your job is on the line, you've got to be using industry standard tools. Furthermore, both NFLX and DIS are B2C whereas MSFT and ADBE are B2B. It's almost impossible to compare these companies, in terms of subscribers. Sure, we can discuss subscriber counts, subscriber growth, and so forth. But, MSFT and ADBE provide software to companies, and users must use those tools. They are sticky out of necessity, not mere desire. Therefore, let's all be very careful about how we think about DIS, and how we make comparisons.\nPutting all of this together, I still believe that DIS is a wonderful business. However, I would be cautious about adding a ton, especially if that decision is based on dazzling subscriber growth, or incredible content development. At this point, I see DIS as a reasonable hold.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607062046,"gmtCreate":1639459630428,"gmtModify":1639459630613,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607062046","repostId":"1119480728","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119480728","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639459363,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119480728?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 13:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>迪士尼：并非所有订阅者生来平等</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119480728","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nQQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.\nDIS has not fully bounced ba","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>QQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.</li>  <li>DIS has not fully bounced back from 2020 but it's certainly healing.</li>  <li>DIS is far more like NFLX than MSFT or ADBE, despite any discussion or comparisons related to subscriber growth and associated metrics.</li>  <li>DIS has been far less of a growth stock than&nbsp;NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db18b8191ffe57bbd7ff43b3b4de329b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>QQQ轻松击败了DIS，而SPDR标普500指数ETF也做了同样的事情。</li><li>DIS尚未从2020年完全反弹，但肯定正在愈合。</li><li>尽管存在与用户增长和相关指标相关的任何讨论或比较，但DIS更像NFLX，而不是MSFT或ADBE。</li><li>与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS远不是一只成长型股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>马文·塞缪尔·托伦蒂诺·皮内达/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> I've owned Disney (DIS) since early 2016. I greatly enjoy DIS products and services. I am reasonably pleased with DIS stock performance.</p><p><blockquote>我自2016年初以来一直拥有迪士尼(DIS)。我非常喜欢DIS的产品和服务。我对DIS股票的表现相当满意。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58048f15fcf1af89506563ab33f6e301\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> 53% gains in 5 years isn't terrible but it's not spectacular either. For added perspective, let's quickly compare DIS with the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over 10 years or so.</p><p><blockquote>5年内53%的涨幅并不可怕，但也不引人注目。为了增加视角，让我们快速将DIS与标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）和纳斯达克100（QQQ）进行10年左右的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2cb75ad2becfcf9268f372150a7698\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, I zoomed out for a bigger picture view of things. Clearly, QQQ has crushed DIS. Over the same time, DIS has done about as well as SPY. It's clear the 2020 was rough on the price of DIS stock. However, it was also an incredible pivot opportunity for the business with Disney Plus, the streaming home of Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and way more.</p><p><blockquote>如你所见，我缩小了以获得更大的图片视图。显然，QQQ已经碾压了DIS。与此同时，DIS的表现与SPDR标普500指数ETF不相上下。很明显，2020年对DIS股票的价格来说是艰难的。然而，这也是Disney Plus业务的一个令人难以置信的关键机会，Disney Plus是迪士尼、皮克斯、漫威、星球大战、国家地理等的流媒体之家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model Update</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式更新</b></blockquote></p><p> It's clear that DIS has been incredibly focused on subscribers for Disney Plus. Here's a quick peek, from the&nbsp;Q4 2021 Earnings Call:</p><p><blockquote>很明显，DIS非常关注Disney Plus的订户。以下是2021年第四季度收益看涨期权的快速浏览：</blockquote></p><p>   On the Direct-to-Consumer side, we are extremely pleased with the success of our portfolio streaming services. Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu continue to perform incredibly well with a 118.1 million, 17.1 million, and 43.8 million subscribers, respectively, for a total of a 179 million subscriptions. To put this growth in perspective, in the past fiscal year alone, we have grown the total number of subscriptions across our DTC portfolio by 48%, and Disney+ subs in particular by 60%.  Now, here's the good news and bad news. DIS leadership is planning to reach 230 million to 260 million paid subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024. Obviously, that's phenomenal growth and investors should cheer. However, the dark side is that this growth isn't free.<b>DIS doesn't expect their portfolio of streaming services to reach profitability until 2024.</b>Ouch.</p><p><blockquote>在直接面向消费者方面，我们对我们组合流媒体服务的成功感到非常高兴。Disney+、ESPN+和Hulu继续表现出色，分别拥有1.181亿、1710万和4380万订阅用户，订阅总数为1.79亿。从这个角度来看，仅在上一财年，我们的DTC产品组合的订阅总数就增长了48%，尤其是Disney+订阅增长了60%。现在，这是好消息和坏消息。DIS领导层计划到2024财年末，全球付费用户数量达到2.3亿至2.6亿。显然，这是惊人的增长，投资者应该欢呼。然而，阴暗面是这种增长不是免费的。<b>DIS预计他们的流媒体服务组合要到2024年才能实现盈利。</b>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> The key point is that DIS is not simply bolting on Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, Hulu and so on, and adding profits to the bottom line. Instead, getting to this current level of subscribers has been chewing up time and resources. And, it'll be nasty for years. The investment will drain resources. More about this later.</p><p><blockquote>关键是，DIS并不是简单地抢占Disney Plus、ESPN Plus、Hulu等，为底线增加利润。相反，达到目前的用户水平一直在消耗时间和资源。而且，这将会持续很多年。这项投资会耗尽资源。稍后会详细介绍。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, very long term investors can cheer. DIS literally has the best intellectual media assets in the world. Really, there isn't any company even close. The library is amazing, huge, and growing.See for yourself.</p><p><blockquote>当然，长期投资者可以欢呼。DIS拥有世界上最好的知识媒体资产。真的，附近没有任何公司。这个图书馆很棒，很大，而且还在增长。你自己看吧。</blockquote></p><p> As a quick aside, most people, and most analysts expected a bigger \"snap back\" from 2020, especially in relation to park visits and related activity. For example, here's what we learned about&nbsp;attendance in August 2021:</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，大多数人和大多数分析师预计2020年将出现更大的“snap回归”，特别是在公园参观和相关活动方面。例如，以下是我们了解到的2021年8月的出勤情况：</blockquote></p><p>   Disney world does not share its actual capacity nor the number of attendees they get daily. But as stated above, the estimated number of average daily attendees was 57,000 before the pandemic started. So, at present, it might be welcoming a maximum of 35,000 guests daily&nbsp;  <b>running with a 35% capacity</b>. [Emphasis: Author]  Big picture, I'm not too worried about the parks and related real-world experiences offered by DIS. It might take longer to get running at full steam, but DIS can do it. I'm a bit more concerned that investors are expecting too much from DIS streaming services, without fully considering the costs. This is especially true for short term investors and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼世界不分享它的实际容量，也不分享他们每天的与会者人数。但如上所述，在疫情开始之前，估计日均出席人数为57,000人。因此，目前，它可能每天最多接待35,000名客人<b>以35%的容量运行</b>.[强调：作者]总的来说，我不太担心DIS提供的公园和相关的现实世界体验。全速运行可能需要更长的时间，但DIS可以做到。我更担心的是，投资者对DIS流媒体服务期望过高，而没有充分考虑成本。对于短期投资者和投机者来说尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Disney Is Not Microsoft or Adobe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迪斯尼不是微软或Adobe</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts like to compare DIS to enterprise software companies,<i>as if all subscribers are created equal</i>. Let's consider two incredible businesses. Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) have done exceptionally well in recent years, compared to DIS.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢将DIS比作企业软件公司，<i>好像所有订户都是平等的</i>.让我们考虑两个令人难以置信的业务。与DIS相比，微软(MSFT)和Adobe(ADBE)近年来的表现都非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247db57795d4cce4d0d919346b84c7f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, MSFT and ADBE have trounced DIS. In part, here's why:</p><p><blockquote>显然，MSFT和ADBE已经击败了DIS。部分原因如下：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90248d3aef70628dea5b4029b79b516\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> P/S for both MSFT and ADBE has roughly doubled. At a high level, prices are moving up faster than revenue generated for MSFT and ADBE. Meanwhile, investors place less value on DIS revenue. DIS has pretty much moved sideways.</p><p><blockquote>MSFT和ADBE的市盈率都大约翻了一番。在高水平上，价格的上涨速度快于MSFT和ADBE产生的收入。与此同时，投资者对DIS收入的重视程度较低。DIS几乎已经横向移动。</blockquote></p><p> Let's talk some real numbers. MSFT has grown earnings by 17% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.63 and in 2021 it's about $8. ADBE has grown earnings by about 29% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.08 and it's expected to hit a staggering $12.46 this year. Meanwhile, here's how DIS looks:</p><p><blockquote>我们来谈谈一些真实的数字。过去10年，MSFT的盈利每年增长17%。2015年，每股收益为2.63美元，2021年约为8美元。过去10年，ADBE的盈利每年增长约29%。2015年，每股收益为2.08美元，预计今年将达到惊人的12.46美元。同时，DIS的外观如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb56eaa4d09a70ca4f320a0e111896b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FASTgraphs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FASTgraphs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> EPS might get back to 2015 levels in 2023. The dividend was killed off. DIS share price is dramatically higher, even now, compared to earnings. There's a lot of pain in this chart.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益可能会在2023年恢复到2015年的水平。股息被取消了。即使是现在，与盈利相比，DIS的股价也要高得多。这张图表里有很多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p> All if this isn't to bash DIS or to imply that the products or business is terrible. The DIS brand is pristine. Leadership is strong. The company isn't going to suddenly fall off the face of the Earth.<i>The business is amazing</i>.</p><p><blockquote>如果这不是为了抨击DIS或暗示产品或业务很糟糕的话。DIS品牌是原始的。领导力强。该公司不会突然从地球上消失。<i>生意很惊人</i>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有订户都是平等的</b></blockquote></p><p> I'm not too keen to do this, but here's Netflix (NFLX) versus DIS.</p><p><blockquote>我不太热衷于这样做，但这是Netflix(NFLX)与DIS的对比。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55b99727d2cfebd285167f115f4387ae\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The only point I want to make is that NFLX shareholders have done far better than DIS shareholders. And, for a different perspective, here's how $10K would have done over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>我唯一想说的是，NFLX股东的表现远远好于DIS股东。从不同的角度来看，以下是1万美元在过去五年中的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4539b42cb1304e691ad2b38dbcbf4c2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's very hard for me to say that DIS is \"on sale\" when I look at the relatively flat performance over the last five years. While I think of DIS as a growth stock,<i>it's less of a growth stock</i>&nbsp;than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</p><p><blockquote>当我看到过去五年相对平淡的表现时，我很难说DIS正在“打折”。虽然我认为DIS是一只成长型股票，<i>它不是成长型股票</i>比NFLX、MSFT和ADBE。</blockquote></p><p> In large part, I believe this is all about our definition of subscribers. I'll come back to that in a second. First, feast your eyes on this:</p><p><blockquote>在很大程度上，我相信这就是我们对订户的定义。我一会儿会回到这个话题。首先，大饱眼福：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dfdf6d35c4eba3617e6fec280f09282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What you're seeing is profit margin for DIS, NFLX, MSFT and ADBE. Quite frankly, this paints a damning picture of DIS, especially since 2020. What's most impressive, on the other hand, is how MSFT and ADBE have had has consistently high and growing profit margins. I've got to say, I'm actually a bit surprised that NFLX just keeps getting stronger and stronger in this department as well.</p><p><blockquote>您看到的是DIS、NFLX、MSFT和ADBE的利润率。坦率地说，这为DIS描绘了一幅糟糕的画面，尤其是自2020年以来。另一方面，最令人印象深刻的是MSFT和ADBE的利润率一直很高且不断增长。我不得不说，我实际上有点惊讶NFLX在这个部门也变得越来越强大。</blockquote></p><p> By the way, as a sidebar, it's easy to complain about the NFLX P/E ratio. It's over 50 right now. But, at the same time, DIS is at 37, MSFT is at 37, and ADBE is at 52. In that respect, they are all quite overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，作为侧边栏，很容易抱怨NFLX市盈率。现在已经50多了。但与此同时，DIS为37，MSFT为37，ADBE为52。在这方面，它们都被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrap Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, here are my biggest points. NFLX has spent more than DIS on content and also has first mover advantage, loyalty and entrenchment. Many people have both NFLX and DIS, so I see less of a \"war\" than most people. Furthermore, it appears that NFLX has done an outstanding operational job, and their capital allocation has been strong. It's hard to look at this chart and dismiss NFLX. Clearly, it's a well-run company.</p><p><blockquote>现在，以下是我最大的观点。NFLX在内容上的支出超过了DIS，并且还拥有先发优势、忠诚度和巩固地位。很多人都有NFLX和DIS，所以我比大多数人看到的“战争”更少。此外，NFLX的运营工作似乎非常出色，他们的资本配置也很强劲。看着这张图表，很难忽视NFLX。显然，这是一家运营良好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c9d98acfdd8206fa2c0323144db713\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This next chart is extremely noisy, but you can scroll down and see the truth with your own two eyes. DIS has rather poor ROE, ROA and ROIC compared to NFLX, MSFT and ADBE.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表非常嘈杂，但你可以向下滚动，用你自己的两只眼睛看到真相。与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS的ROE、ROA和ROIC相当差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5aaf232d38eaceea4d9621f81a7a92f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To be fair, DIS was doing a pretty good job through early 2019. However, very importantly,<i>the drops appear to have started before 2020</i>. We cannot blame the pandemic for the decline in ROE, ROA and ROIC.</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，DIS在2019年初做得相当不错。然而，非常重要的是，<i>下降似乎在2020年之前就开始了</i>我们不能将ROE、ROA和ROIC的下降归咎于疫情。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear,DIS is going to be going gangbusters on content.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，DIS将在内容上大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p>   Disney plans to increase its overall content spend to around $33bn in 2022, marking an $8bn rise from the previous year.  Furthermore, the idea is that DIS will be&nbsp;rapidly growing the subscriber base.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼计划在2022年将其整体内容支出增加至330亿美元左右，比上一年增加80亿美元。此外，这个想法是DIS将迅速扩大用户群。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   Disney+ is expected to add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million.  In short, DIS isn't about to be left in the dust by NFLX. Something like 60 unscripted series, 30 comedy series and 25 drama shows will be produced. There's really too much to list here. Money is being put to work by DIS.</p><p><blockquote>Disney+预计在2021年至2026年间将增加1.4亿订阅用户，使其总数达到2.71亿。与此同时，Netflix同期将增加5300万订阅用户，使其到2026年订阅用户总数达到2.75亿。简而言之，DIS不会被NFLX远远甩在身后。大约60部无剧本系列、30部喜剧系列和25部戏剧将被制作出来。这里真的有太多了，无法一一列举。DIS正在投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Now, shifting gears, I have to say that both MSFT and ADBE have dramatically different types of subscribers. DIS and NFLX satisfy entertainment desires. These are wants,<i>not needs</i>.</p><p><blockquote>现在，换个角度，我不得不说MSFT和ADBE的订户类型截然不同。DIS和NFLX满足娱乐欲望。这些都是需求，<i>不需要</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Here's a good way to&nbsp;think about MSFT and ADBE:</p><p><blockquote>以下是思考MSFT和ADBE的好方法：</blockquote></p><p>   Both companies armed businesses big and small with the tools needed to stay in business since the pandemic. As the world moved to virtual work and school, PDFs with virtual signatures and Word docs with important information became standard.  In other words, MSFT and ADBE subscribers aren't \"addicted\" to the software, as much as they are<i>required to use it to do work</i>. When your job is on the line, you've got to be using industry standard tools. Furthermore, both NFLX and DIS are B2C whereas MSFT and ADBE are B2B. It's almost impossible to compare these companies, in terms of subscribers. Sure, we can discuss subscriber counts, subscriber growth, and so forth. But, MSFT and ADBE provide software to companies, and users must use those tools. They are sticky out of necessity, not mere desire. Therefore, let's all be very careful about how we think about DIS, and how we make comparisons.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行以来，两家公司都为大大小小的企业提供了维持业务所需的工具。随着世界转向虚拟工作和学校，带有虚拟签名的PDF和包含重要信息的Word文档成为标准。换句话说，MSFT和ADBE的用户并不像他们那样对软件“上瘾”<i>需要用它来做工作</i>.当你的工作岌岌可危时，你必须使用行业标准的工具。此外，NFLX和DIS都是B2C，而MSFT和ADBE是B2B。就订户而言，几乎不可能比较这些公司。当然，我们可以讨论用户数量、用户增长等等。但是，MSFT和ADBE向公司提供软件，用户必须使用这些工具。它们粘在一起是出于需要，而不仅仅是欲望。因此，让我们都非常小心我们如何看待DIS，以及我们如何进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> Putting all of this together, I still believe that DIS is a wonderful business. However, I would be cautious about adding a ton, especially if that decision is based on dazzling subscriber growth, or incredible content development. At this point, I see DIS as a reasonable hold.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我仍然相信DIS是一项出色的业务。然而，我会对增加一吨持谨慎态度，特别是如果这个决定是基于令人眼花缭乱的订户增长或令人难以置信的内容开发。在这一点上，我认为DIS是合理的持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>迪士尼：并非所有订阅者生来平等</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>迪士尼：并非所有订阅者生来平等</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 13:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>QQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.</li>  <li>DIS has not fully bounced back from 2020 but it's certainly healing.</li>  <li>DIS is far more like NFLX than MSFT or ADBE, despite any discussion or comparisons related to subscriber growth and associated metrics.</li>  <li>DIS has been far less of a growth stock than&nbsp;NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db18b8191ffe57bbd7ff43b3b4de329b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>QQQ轻松击败了DIS，而SPDR标普500指数ETF也做了同样的事情。</li><li>DIS尚未从2020年完全反弹，但肯定正在愈合。</li><li>尽管存在与用户增长和相关指标相关的任何讨论或比较，但DIS更像NFLX，而不是MSFT或ADBE。</li><li>与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS远不是一只成长型股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>马文·塞缪尔·托伦蒂诺·皮内达/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> I've owned Disney (DIS) since early 2016. I greatly enjoy DIS products and services. I am reasonably pleased with DIS stock performance.</p><p><blockquote>我自2016年初以来一直拥有迪士尼(DIS)。我非常喜欢DIS的产品和服务。我对DIS股票的表现相当满意。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58048f15fcf1af89506563ab33f6e301\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> 53% gains in 5 years isn't terrible but it's not spectacular either. For added perspective, let's quickly compare DIS with the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over 10 years or so.</p><p><blockquote>5年内53%的涨幅并不可怕，但也不引人注目。为了增加视角，让我们快速将DIS与标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）和纳斯达克100（QQQ）进行10年左右的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2cb75ad2becfcf9268f372150a7698\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, I zoomed out for a bigger picture view of things. Clearly, QQQ has crushed DIS. Over the same time, DIS has done about as well as SPY. It's clear the 2020 was rough on the price of DIS stock. However, it was also an incredible pivot opportunity for the business with Disney Plus, the streaming home of Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and way more.</p><p><blockquote>如你所见，我缩小了以获得更大的图片视图。显然，QQQ已经碾压了DIS。与此同时，DIS的表现与SPDR标普500指数ETF不相上下。很明显，2020年对DIS股票的价格来说是艰难的。然而，这也是Disney Plus业务的一个令人难以置信的关键机会，Disney Plus是迪士尼、皮克斯、漫威、星球大战、国家地理等的流媒体之家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model Update</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式更新</b></blockquote></p><p> It's clear that DIS has been incredibly focused on subscribers for Disney Plus. Here's a quick peek, from the&nbsp;Q4 2021 Earnings Call:</p><p><blockquote>很明显，DIS非常关注Disney Plus的订户。以下是2021年第四季度收益看涨期权的快速浏览：</blockquote></p><p>   On the Direct-to-Consumer side, we are extremely pleased with the success of our portfolio streaming services. Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu continue to perform incredibly well with a 118.1 million, 17.1 million, and 43.8 million subscribers, respectively, for a total of a 179 million subscriptions. To put this growth in perspective, in the past fiscal year alone, we have grown the total number of subscriptions across our DTC portfolio by 48%, and Disney+ subs in particular by 60%.  Now, here's the good news and bad news. DIS leadership is planning to reach 230 million to 260 million paid subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024. Obviously, that's phenomenal growth and investors should cheer. However, the dark side is that this growth isn't free.<b>DIS doesn't expect their portfolio of streaming services to reach profitability until 2024.</b>Ouch.</p><p><blockquote>在直接面向消费者方面，我们对我们组合流媒体服务的成功感到非常高兴。Disney+、ESPN+和Hulu继续表现出色，分别拥有1.181亿、1710万和4380万订阅用户，订阅总数为1.79亿。从这个角度来看，仅在上一财年，我们的DTC产品组合的订阅总数就增长了48%，尤其是Disney+订阅增长了60%。现在，这是好消息和坏消息。DIS领导层计划到2024财年末，全球付费用户数量达到2.3亿至2.6亿。显然，这是惊人的增长，投资者应该欢呼。然而，阴暗面是这种增长不是免费的。<b>DIS预计他们的流媒体服务组合要到2024年才能实现盈利。</b>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> The key point is that DIS is not simply bolting on Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, Hulu and so on, and adding profits to the bottom line. Instead, getting to this current level of subscribers has been chewing up time and resources. And, it'll be nasty for years. The investment will drain resources. More about this later.</p><p><blockquote>关键是，DIS并不是简单地抢占Disney Plus、ESPN Plus、Hulu等，为底线增加利润。相反，达到目前的用户水平一直在消耗时间和资源。而且，这将会持续很多年。这项投资会耗尽资源。稍后会详细介绍。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, very long term investors can cheer. DIS literally has the best intellectual media assets in the world. Really, there isn't any company even close. The library is amazing, huge, and growing.See for yourself.</p><p><blockquote>当然，长期投资者可以欢呼。DIS拥有世界上最好的知识媒体资产。真的，附近没有任何公司。这个图书馆很棒，很大，而且还在增长。你自己看吧。</blockquote></p><p> As a quick aside, most people, and most analysts expected a bigger \"snap back\" from 2020, especially in relation to park visits and related activity. For example, here's what we learned about&nbsp;attendance in August 2021:</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，大多数人和大多数分析师预计2020年将出现更大的“snap回归”，特别是在公园参观和相关活动方面。例如，以下是我们了解到的2021年8月的出勤情况：</blockquote></p><p>   Disney world does not share its actual capacity nor the number of attendees they get daily. But as stated above, the estimated number of average daily attendees was 57,000 before the pandemic started. So, at present, it might be welcoming a maximum of 35,000 guests daily&nbsp;  <b>running with a 35% capacity</b>. [Emphasis: Author]  Big picture, I'm not too worried about the parks and related real-world experiences offered by DIS. It might take longer to get running at full steam, but DIS can do it. I'm a bit more concerned that investors are expecting too much from DIS streaming services, without fully considering the costs. This is especially true for short term investors and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼世界不分享它的实际容量，也不分享他们每天的与会者人数。但如上所述，在疫情开始之前，估计日均出席人数为57,000人。因此，目前，它可能每天最多接待35,000名客人<b>以35%的容量运行</b>.[强调：作者]总的来说，我不太担心DIS提供的公园和相关的现实世界体验。全速运行可能需要更长的时间，但DIS可以做到。我更担心的是，投资者对DIS流媒体服务期望过高，而没有充分考虑成本。对于短期投资者和投机者来说尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Disney Is Not Microsoft or Adobe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迪斯尼不是微软或Adobe</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts like to compare DIS to enterprise software companies,<i>as if all subscribers are created equal</i>. Let's consider two incredible businesses. Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) have done exceptionally well in recent years, compared to DIS.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢将DIS比作企业软件公司，<i>好像所有订户都是平等的</i>.让我们考虑两个令人难以置信的业务。与DIS相比，微软(MSFT)和Adobe(ADBE)近年来的表现都非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247db57795d4cce4d0d919346b84c7f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, MSFT and ADBE have trounced DIS. In part, here's why:</p><p><blockquote>显然，MSFT和ADBE已经击败了DIS。部分原因如下：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90248d3aef70628dea5b4029b79b516\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> P/S for both MSFT and ADBE has roughly doubled. At a high level, prices are moving up faster than revenue generated for MSFT and ADBE. Meanwhile, investors place less value on DIS revenue. DIS has pretty much moved sideways.</p><p><blockquote>MSFT和ADBE的市盈率都大约翻了一番。在高水平上，价格的上涨速度快于MSFT和ADBE产生的收入。与此同时，投资者对DIS收入的重视程度较低。DIS几乎已经横向移动。</blockquote></p><p> Let's talk some real numbers. MSFT has grown earnings by 17% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.63 and in 2021 it's about $8. ADBE has grown earnings by about 29% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.08 and it's expected to hit a staggering $12.46 this year. Meanwhile, here's how DIS looks:</p><p><blockquote>我们来谈谈一些真实的数字。过去10年，MSFT的盈利每年增长17%。2015年，每股收益为2.63美元，2021年约为8美元。过去10年，ADBE的盈利每年增长约29%。2015年，每股收益为2.08美元，预计今年将达到惊人的12.46美元。同时，DIS的外观如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb56eaa4d09a70ca4f320a0e111896b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FASTgraphs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FASTgraphs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> EPS might get back to 2015 levels in 2023. The dividend was killed off. DIS share price is dramatically higher, even now, compared to earnings. There's a lot of pain in this chart.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益可能会在2023年恢复到2015年的水平。股息被取消了。即使是现在，与盈利相比，DIS的股价也要高得多。这张图表里有很多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p> All if this isn't to bash DIS or to imply that the products or business is terrible. The DIS brand is pristine. Leadership is strong. The company isn't going to suddenly fall off the face of the Earth.<i>The business is amazing</i>.</p><p><blockquote>如果这不是为了抨击DIS或暗示产品或业务很糟糕的话。DIS品牌是原始的。领导力强。该公司不会突然从地球上消失。<i>生意很惊人</i>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有订户都是平等的</b></blockquote></p><p> I'm not too keen to do this, but here's Netflix (NFLX) versus DIS.</p><p><blockquote>我不太热衷于这样做，但这是Netflix(NFLX)与DIS的对比。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55b99727d2cfebd285167f115f4387ae\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The only point I want to make is that NFLX shareholders have done far better than DIS shareholders. And, for a different perspective, here's how $10K would have done over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>我唯一想说的是，NFLX股东的表现远远好于DIS股东。从不同的角度来看，以下是1万美元在过去五年中的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4539b42cb1304e691ad2b38dbcbf4c2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's very hard for me to say that DIS is \"on sale\" when I look at the relatively flat performance over the last five years. While I think of DIS as a growth stock,<i>it's less of a growth stock</i>&nbsp;than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</p><p><blockquote>当我看到过去五年相对平淡的表现时，我很难说DIS正在“打折”。虽然我认为DIS是一只成长型股票，<i>它不是成长型股票</i>比NFLX、MSFT和ADBE。</blockquote></p><p> In large part, I believe this is all about our definition of subscribers. I'll come back to that in a second. First, feast your eyes on this:</p><p><blockquote>在很大程度上，我相信这就是我们对订户的定义。我一会儿会回到这个话题。首先，大饱眼福：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dfdf6d35c4eba3617e6fec280f09282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What you're seeing is profit margin for DIS, NFLX, MSFT and ADBE. Quite frankly, this paints a damning picture of DIS, especially since 2020. What's most impressive, on the other hand, is how MSFT and ADBE have had has consistently high and growing profit margins. I've got to say, I'm actually a bit surprised that NFLX just keeps getting stronger and stronger in this department as well.</p><p><blockquote>您看到的是DIS、NFLX、MSFT和ADBE的利润率。坦率地说，这为DIS描绘了一幅糟糕的画面，尤其是自2020年以来。另一方面，最令人印象深刻的是MSFT和ADBE的利润率一直很高且不断增长。我不得不说，我实际上有点惊讶NFLX在这个部门也变得越来越强大。</blockquote></p><p> By the way, as a sidebar, it's easy to complain about the NFLX P/E ratio. It's over 50 right now. But, at the same time, DIS is at 37, MSFT is at 37, and ADBE is at 52. In that respect, they are all quite overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，作为侧边栏，很容易抱怨NFLX市盈率。现在已经50多了。但与此同时，DIS为37，MSFT为37，ADBE为52。在这方面，它们都被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrap Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, here are my biggest points. NFLX has spent more than DIS on content and also has first mover advantage, loyalty and entrenchment. Many people have both NFLX and DIS, so I see less of a \"war\" than most people. Furthermore, it appears that NFLX has done an outstanding operational job, and their capital allocation has been strong. It's hard to look at this chart and dismiss NFLX. Clearly, it's a well-run company.</p><p><blockquote>现在，以下是我最大的观点。NFLX在内容上的支出超过了DIS，并且还拥有先发优势、忠诚度和巩固地位。很多人都有NFLX和DIS，所以我比大多数人看到的“战争”更少。此外，NFLX的运营工作似乎非常出色，他们的资本配置也很强劲。看着这张图表，很难忽视NFLX。显然，这是一家运营良好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c9d98acfdd8206fa2c0323144db713\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This next chart is extremely noisy, but you can scroll down and see the truth with your own two eyes. DIS has rather poor ROE, ROA and ROIC compared to NFLX, MSFT and ADBE.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表非常嘈杂，但你可以向下滚动，用你自己的两只眼睛看到真相。与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS的ROE、ROA和ROIC相当差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5aaf232d38eaceea4d9621f81a7a92f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To be fair, DIS was doing a pretty good job through early 2019. However, very importantly,<i>the drops appear to have started before 2020</i>. We cannot blame the pandemic for the decline in ROE, ROA and ROIC.</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，DIS在2019年初做得相当不错。然而，非常重要的是，<i>下降似乎在2020年之前就开始了</i>我们不能将ROE、ROA和ROIC的下降归咎于疫情。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear,DIS is going to be going gangbusters on content.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，DIS将在内容上大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p>   Disney plans to increase its overall content spend to around $33bn in 2022, marking an $8bn rise from the previous year.  Furthermore, the idea is that DIS will be&nbsp;rapidly growing the subscriber base.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼计划在2022年将其整体内容支出增加至330亿美元左右，比上一年增加80亿美元。此外，这个想法是DIS将迅速扩大用户群。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   Disney+ is expected to add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million.  In short, DIS isn't about to be left in the dust by NFLX. Something like 60 unscripted series, 30 comedy series and 25 drama shows will be produced. There's really too much to list here. Money is being put to work by DIS.</p><p><blockquote>Disney+预计在2021年至2026年间将增加1.4亿订阅用户，使其总数达到2.71亿。与此同时，Netflix同期将增加5300万订阅用户，使其到2026年订阅用户总数达到2.75亿。简而言之，DIS不会被NFLX远远甩在身后。大约60部无剧本系列、30部喜剧系列和25部戏剧将被制作出来。这里真的有太多了，无法一一列举。DIS正在投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Now, shifting gears, I have to say that both MSFT and ADBE have dramatically different types of subscribers. DIS and NFLX satisfy entertainment desires. These are wants,<i>not needs</i>.</p><p><blockquote>现在，换个角度，我不得不说MSFT和ADBE的订户类型截然不同。DIS和NFLX满足娱乐欲望。这些都是需求，<i>不需要</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Here's a good way to&nbsp;think about MSFT and ADBE:</p><p><blockquote>以下是思考MSFT和ADBE的好方法：</blockquote></p><p>   Both companies armed businesses big and small with the tools needed to stay in business since the pandemic. As the world moved to virtual work and school, PDFs with virtual signatures and Word docs with important information became standard.  In other words, MSFT and ADBE subscribers aren't \"addicted\" to the software, as much as they are<i>required to use it to do work</i>. When your job is on the line, you've got to be using industry standard tools. Furthermore, both NFLX and DIS are B2C whereas MSFT and ADBE are B2B. It's almost impossible to compare these companies, in terms of subscribers. Sure, we can discuss subscriber counts, subscriber growth, and so forth. But, MSFT and ADBE provide software to companies, and users must use those tools. They are sticky out of necessity, not mere desire. Therefore, let's all be very careful about how we think about DIS, and how we make comparisons.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行以来，两家公司都为大大小小的企业提供了维持业务所需的工具。随着世界转向虚拟工作和学校，带有虚拟签名的PDF和包含重要信息的Word文档成为标准。换句话说，MSFT和ADBE的用户并不像他们那样对软件“上瘾”<i>需要用它来做工作</i>.当你的工作岌岌可危时，你必须使用行业标准的工具。此外，NFLX和DIS都是B2C，而MSFT和ADBE是B2B。就订户而言，几乎不可能比较这些公司。当然，我们可以讨论用户数量、用户增长等等。但是，MSFT和ADBE向公司提供软件，用户必须使用这些工具。它们粘在一起是出于需要，而不仅仅是欲望。因此，让我们都非常小心我们如何看待DIS，以及我们如何进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> Putting all of this together, I still believe that DIS is a wonderful business. However, I would be cautious about adding a ton, especially if that decision is based on dazzling subscriber growth, or incredible content development. At this point, I see DIS as a reasonable hold.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我仍然相信DIS是一项出色的业务。然而，我会对增加一吨持谨慎态度，特别是如果这个决定是基于令人眼花缭乱的订户增长或令人难以置信的内容开发。在这一点上，我认为DIS是合理的持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475050-disney-all-subscribers-are-not-created-equal\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475050-disney-all-subscribers-are-not-created-equal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119480728","content_text":"Summary\n\nQQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.\nDIS has not fully bounced back from 2020 but it's certainly healing.\nDIS is far more like NFLX than MSFT or ADBE, despite any discussion or comparisons related to subscriber growth and associated metrics.\nDIS has been far less of a growth stock than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.\n\nMarvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nBackground\nI've owned Disney (DIS) since early 2016. I greatly enjoy DIS products and services. I am reasonably pleased with DIS stock performance.\nData by YCharts\n53% gains in 5 years isn't terrible but it's not spectacular either. For added perspective, let's quickly compare DIS with the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over 10 years or so.\nData by YCharts\nAs you can see, I zoomed out for a bigger picture view of things. Clearly, QQQ has crushed DIS. Over the same time, DIS has done about as well as SPY. It's clear the 2020 was rough on the price of DIS stock. However, it was also an incredible pivot opportunity for the business with Disney Plus, the streaming home of Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and way more.\nBusiness Model Update\nIt's clear that DIS has been incredibly focused on subscribers for Disney Plus. Here's a quick peek, from the Q4 2021 Earnings Call:\n\n On the Direct-to-Consumer side, we are extremely pleased with the success of our portfolio streaming services. Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu continue to perform incredibly well with a 118.1 million, 17.1 million, and 43.8 million subscribers, respectively, for a total of a 179 million subscriptions. To put this growth in perspective, in the past fiscal year alone, we have grown the total number of subscriptions across our DTC portfolio by 48%, and Disney+ subs in particular by 60%.\n\nNow, here's the good news and bad news. DIS leadership is planning to reach 230 million to 260 million paid subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024. Obviously, that's phenomenal growth and investors should cheer. However, the dark side is that this growth isn't free.DIS doesn't expect their portfolio of streaming services to reach profitability until 2024.Ouch.\nThe key point is that DIS is not simply bolting on Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, Hulu and so on, and adding profits to the bottom line. Instead, getting to this current level of subscribers has been chewing up time and resources. And, it'll be nasty for years. The investment will drain resources. More about this later.\nOf course, very long term investors can cheer. DIS literally has the best intellectual media assets in the world. Really, there isn't any company even close. The library is amazing, huge, and growing.See for yourself.\nAs a quick aside, most people, and most analysts expected a bigger \"snap back\" from 2020, especially in relation to park visits and related activity. For example, here's what we learned about attendance in August 2021:\n\n Disney world does not share its actual capacity nor the number of attendees they get daily. But as stated above, the estimated number of average daily attendees was 57,000 before the pandemic started. So, at present, it might be welcoming a maximum of 35,000 guests daily \n running with a 35% capacity. [Emphasis: Author]\n\nBig picture, I'm not too worried about the parks and related real-world experiences offered by DIS. It might take longer to get running at full steam, but DIS can do it. I'm a bit more concerned that investors are expecting too much from DIS streaming services, without fully considering the costs. This is especially true for short term investors and speculators.\nDisney Is Not Microsoft or Adobe\nAnalysts like to compare DIS to enterprise software companies,as if all subscribers are created equal. Let's consider two incredible businesses. Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) have done exceptionally well in recent years, compared to DIS.\nData by YCharts\nClearly, MSFT and ADBE have trounced DIS. In part, here's why:\nData by YCharts\nP/S for both MSFT and ADBE has roughly doubled. At a high level, prices are moving up faster than revenue generated for MSFT and ADBE. Meanwhile, investors place less value on DIS revenue. DIS has pretty much moved sideways.\nLet's talk some real numbers. MSFT has grown earnings by 17% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.63 and in 2021 it's about $8. ADBE has grown earnings by about 29% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.08 and it's expected to hit a staggering $12.46 this year. Meanwhile, here's how DIS looks:\nSource: FASTgraphs\nEPS might get back to 2015 levels in 2023. The dividend was killed off. DIS share price is dramatically higher, even now, compared to earnings. There's a lot of pain in this chart.\nAll if this isn't to bash DIS or to imply that the products or business is terrible. The DIS brand is pristine. Leadership is strong. The company isn't going to suddenly fall off the face of the Earth.The business is amazing.\nAll Subscribers Are Not Created Equal\nI'm not too keen to do this, but here's Netflix (NFLX) versus DIS.\nData by YCharts\nThe only point I want to make is that NFLX shareholders have done far better than DIS shareholders. And, for a different perspective, here's how $10K would have done over the last five years.\nData by YCharts\nIt's very hard for me to say that DIS is \"on sale\" when I look at the relatively flat performance over the last five years. While I think of DIS as a growth stock,it's less of a growth stock than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.\nIn large part, I believe this is all about our definition of subscribers. I'll come back to that in a second. First, feast your eyes on this:\nData by YCharts\nWhat you're seeing is profit margin for DIS, NFLX, MSFT and ADBE. Quite frankly, this paints a damning picture of DIS, especially since 2020. What's most impressive, on the other hand, is how MSFT and ADBE have had has consistently high and growing profit margins. I've got to say, I'm actually a bit surprised that NFLX just keeps getting stronger and stronger in this department as well.\nBy the way, as a sidebar, it's easy to complain about the NFLX P/E ratio. It's over 50 right now. But, at the same time, DIS is at 37, MSFT is at 37, and ADBE is at 52. In that respect, they are all quite overvalued.\nWrap Up\nNow, here are my biggest points. NFLX has spent more than DIS on content and also has first mover advantage, loyalty and entrenchment. Many people have both NFLX and DIS, so I see less of a \"war\" than most people. Furthermore, it appears that NFLX has done an outstanding operational job, and their capital allocation has been strong. It's hard to look at this chart and dismiss NFLX. Clearly, it's a well-run company.\nData by YCharts\nThis next chart is extremely noisy, but you can scroll down and see the truth with your own two eyes. DIS has rather poor ROE, ROA and ROIC compared to NFLX, MSFT and ADBE.\nData by YCharts\nTo be fair, DIS was doing a pretty good job through early 2019. However, very importantly,the drops appear to have started before 2020. We cannot blame the pandemic for the decline in ROE, ROA and ROIC.\nTo be clear,DIS is going to be going gangbusters on content.\n\n Disney plans to increase its overall content spend to around $33bn in 2022, marking an $8bn rise from the previous year.\n\nFurthermore, the idea is that DIS will be rapidly growing the subscriber base.\n\n Disney+ is expected to add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million.\n\nIn short, DIS isn't about to be left in the dust by NFLX. Something like 60 unscripted series, 30 comedy series and 25 drama shows will be produced. There's really too much to list here. Money is being put to work by DIS.\nNow, shifting gears, I have to say that both MSFT and ADBE have dramatically different types of subscribers. DIS and NFLX satisfy entertainment desires. These are wants,not needs.\nHere's a good way to think about MSFT and ADBE:\n\n Both companies armed businesses big and small with the tools needed to stay in business since the pandemic. As the world moved to virtual work and school, PDFs with virtual signatures and Word docs with important information became standard.\n\nIn other words, MSFT and ADBE subscribers aren't \"addicted\" to the software, as much as they arerequired to use it to do work. When your job is on the line, you've got to be using industry standard tools. Furthermore, both NFLX and DIS are B2C whereas MSFT and ADBE are B2B. It's almost impossible to compare these companies, in terms of subscribers. Sure, we can discuss subscriber counts, subscriber growth, and so forth. But, MSFT and ADBE provide software to companies, and users must use those tools. They are sticky out of necessity, not mere desire. Therefore, let's all be very careful about how we think about DIS, and how we make comparisons.\nPutting all of this together, I still believe that DIS is a wonderful business. However, I would be cautious about adding a ton, especially if that decision is based on dazzling subscriber growth, or incredible content development. At this point, I see DIS as a reasonable hold.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604803395,"gmtCreate":1639364754189,"gmtModify":1639364928085,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604803395","repostId":"1198225919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198225919","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639361104,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198225919?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 10:05","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Potential SPAC sponsors hint at new tech SGX listings: CGS-CIMB<blockquote>潜在SPAC赞助商暗示新科技将在新交所上市：银河-联昌国际</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198225919","media":"Singapore Busiess Review","summary":"The brokerage company also identified several unicorns as possible SPAC targets.\n\nIn a special purpo","content":"<p> The brokerage company also identified several unicorns as possible SPAC targets.</p><p><blockquote>该经纪公司还确定了几家独角兽公司作为可能的SPAC目标。</blockquote></p><p> In a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) primer by CGS-CIMB, Tikehau Capital, Vertex Holdings, and Novo Tellus were cited as possible SPAC sponsors. Several media reports corroborated this statement.</p><p><blockquote>在银河-联昌国际的特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)入门中，Tikehau Capital、Vertex Holdings和Novo Tellus被列为可能的SPAC发起人。多家媒体报道印证了这一说法。</blockquote></p><p> According to the primer, private equity firm Novo Tellus has been reported by Bloomberg as interested in listing a SPAC in Singapore. Novo Tellus focuses mainly on tech-related investments. Meanwhile, another report said Vertex Holdings is planning to raise funds for dealmaking by listing a SPAC in Singapore. Vertex Holdings is a venture capital holdings company owned by Temasek.</p><p><blockquote>据primer报道，彭博社报道私募股权公司Novo Tellus有兴趣在新加坡上市SPAC。Novo Tellus主要专注于科技相关投资。与此同时，另一份报道称，Vertex Holdings正计划通过在新加坡上市SPAC来筹集交易资金。Vertex Holdings是淡马锡旗下的风险投资控股公司。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, some of the ASEAN unicorns, or startup companies with $1.36b (US$1b) value, identified as potential SPAC targets were J&amp;T Express, Traveloka, Carousell, and Ninja Van.</p><p><blockquote>此外，一些东盟独角兽或价值13.6亿美元（10亿美元）的初创公司被确定为潜在的SPAC目标，包括极兔速递、Traveloka、Carousell和Ninja Van。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1639361175818","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Potential SPAC sponsors hint at new tech SGX listings: CGS-CIMB<blockquote>潜在SPAC赞助商暗示新科技将在新交所上市：银河-联昌国际</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPotential SPAC sponsors hint at new tech SGX listings: CGS-CIMB<blockquote>潜在SPAC赞助商暗示新科技将在新交所上市：银河-联昌国际</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Singapore Busiess Review</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 10:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> The brokerage company also identified several unicorns as possible SPAC targets.</p><p><blockquote>该经纪公司还确定了几家独角兽公司作为可能的SPAC目标。</blockquote></p><p> In a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) primer by CGS-CIMB, Tikehau Capital, Vertex Holdings, and Novo Tellus were cited as possible SPAC sponsors. Several media reports corroborated this statement.</p><p><blockquote>在银河-联昌国际的特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)入门中，Tikehau Capital、Vertex Holdings和Novo Tellus被列为可能的SPAC发起人。多家媒体报道印证了这一说法。</blockquote></p><p> According to the primer, private equity firm Novo Tellus has been reported by Bloomberg as interested in listing a SPAC in Singapore. Novo Tellus focuses mainly on tech-related investments. Meanwhile, another report said Vertex Holdings is planning to raise funds for dealmaking by listing a SPAC in Singapore. Vertex Holdings is a venture capital holdings company owned by Temasek.</p><p><blockquote>据primer报道，彭博社报道私募股权公司Novo Tellus有兴趣在新加坡上市SPAC。Novo Tellus主要专注于科技相关投资。与此同时，另一份报道称，Vertex Holdings正计划通过在新加坡上市SPAC来筹集交易资金。Vertex Holdings是淡马锡旗下的风险投资控股公司。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, some of the ASEAN unicorns, or startup companies with $1.36b (US$1b) value, identified as potential SPAC targets were J&amp;T Express, Traveloka, Carousell, and Ninja Van.</p><p><blockquote>此外，一些东盟独角兽或价值13.6亿美元（10亿美元）的初创公司被确定为潜在的SPAC目标，包括极兔速递、Traveloka、Carousell和Ninja Van。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://sbr.com.sg/stocks/in-focus/potential-spac-sponsors-hint-new-tech-sgx-listings-cgs-cimb\">Singapore Busiess Review</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数","S68.SI":"新加坡交易所"},"source_url":"https://sbr.com.sg/stocks/in-focus/potential-spac-sponsors-hint-new-tech-sgx-listings-cgs-cimb","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198225919","content_text":"The brokerage company also identified several unicorns as possible SPAC targets.\n\nIn a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) primer by CGS-CIMB, Tikehau Capital, Vertex Holdings, and Novo Tellus were cited as possible SPAC sponsors. Several media reports corroborated this statement.\n\nAccording to the primer, private equity firm Novo Tellus has been reported by Bloomberg as interested in listing a SPAC in Singapore. Novo Tellus focuses mainly on tech-related investments. Meanwhile, another report said Vertex Holdings is planning to raise funds for dealmaking by listing a SPAC in Singapore. Vertex Holdings is a venture capital holdings company owned by Temasek.\n\nFurthermore, some of the ASEAN unicorns, or startup companies with $1.36b (US$1b) value, identified as potential SPAC targets were J&T Express, Traveloka, Carousell, and Ninja Van.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9,"S68.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604809976,"gmtCreate":1639364669389,"gmtModify":1639364924433,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorIdStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604809976","repostId":"1125087294","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125087294","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639363682,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125087294?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 10:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Treat Virgin Galactic as a Lottery Ticket and You May Avoid Being Disappointed<blockquote>将维珍银河视为彩票，您可能会避免失望</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125087294","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"SPCE stock is a moonshot that may or may not eventually pay off for investors","content":"<p><div> It’s said that patience is a virtue. But for the holders of Virgin Galactic (NASDAQ:SPCE) stock, patience may be an understatement. At two points this year, SPCE stock has rocketed over $50 per share....</p><p><blockquote><div>据说耐心是一种美德。但对于维珍银河（纳斯达克：SPCE）股票的持有者来说，耐心可能是一种保守的说法。今年，SPCE股价曾两次飙升至每股50美元以上....</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/spce-stock-could-be-special-but-for-now-is-lottery-ticket/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/spce-stock-could-be-special-but-for-now-is-lottery-ticket/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Treat Virgin Galactic as a Lottery Ticket and You May Avoid Being Disappointed<blockquote>将维珍银河视为彩票，您可能会避免失望</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTreat Virgin Galactic as a Lottery Ticket and You May Avoid Being Disappointed<blockquote>将维珍银河视为彩票，您可能会避免失望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 10:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> It’s said that patience is a virtue. But for the holders of Virgin Galactic (NASDAQ:SPCE) stock, patience may be an understatement. At two points this year, SPCE stock has rocketed over $50 per share....</p><p><blockquote><div>据说耐心是一种美德。但对于维珍银河（纳斯达克：SPCE）股票的持有者来说，耐心可能是一种保守的说法。今年，SPCE股价曾两次飙升至每股50美元以上....</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/spce-stock-could-be-special-but-for-now-is-lottery-ticket/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/spce-stock-could-be-special-but-for-now-is-lottery-ticket/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/spce-stock-could-be-special-but-for-now-is-lottery-ticket/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/spce-stock-could-be-special-but-for-now-is-lottery-ticket/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125087294","content_text":"It’s said that patience is a virtue. But for the holders of Virgin Galactic (NASDAQ:SPCE) stock, patience may be an understatement. At two points this year, SPCE stock has rocketed over $50 per share.\nHowever, with the company at least a year (and likely more) away from generating meaningful revenue, the rallies of the stock can be chalked up to the meme-stock movement.\nMany investors who bought the stock are sitting on a loss. And at this time of year, it might be tempting for them to book their losses and move on.\nI wouldn’t blame them. But despite the tax consequences, I could also understand holding onto the shares as long as the position is not too large. That’s because Virgin Galactic could turn out to be a moonshot. Its performance will depend on how well it executes its plan to commercialize space tourism.\nBeing Right Every Time\nI recently had an acquaintance ask me about my thoughts on SPCE stock. I told him that I am skeptical about the shares. He agreed, but asked, “if money was no object and you knew you would land safely would you do it?”\nI said,  “Absolutely.” And that’s the reason to be bullish on Virgin Galactic. Moreover, it’s easy to want the firm to succeed. However, space flight is risky. According to The New Yorker, 1.4% of all Russian, Soviet, and American crewed spaceflight missions have been marred by fatalities.\nI didn’t know that  before reading the article. However, one year before Virgin Galactic conducted its first test flight with a civilian (in this case Sir Richard Branson), I wrote the following regarding my concerns about investing in SPCE stock:\n\n “An accident with a ride at a theme park can set revenue back for years. An accident with a trip to the suborbital area of space will put a company out of business. You can sign all the waivers you want. The legal fees alone will be crushing.”\n\nI followed that up a couple of months later by reminding investors that when it comes to space travel, Virgin Galactic must be right every time. For the most part, retail investors have ignored me. They decided that Virgin Galactic was worth a trip to the moon on gossamer wings.\nPerhaps investors should listen to the words of Virgin Galactic’s founder and visionary, Sir Richard Branson. Sir Richard himself acknowledged that the profits of a company attempting commercial spaceflight depend on safety. And he has said that a private space program can’t afford to have any fatalities.\nExpect Significant Cash Burn at Some Point\nAs Virgin Galactic’s CEO, Michael Colglazier, reminded analysts on the company’s last earnings call, Virgin Galactic is building an industry from the ground up. That’s admirable, but it’s also expensive.\nThe company has a goal of eventually launching 400 flights per year per spaceport. That means that Virgin Galactic is going to have to invest in a larger fleet, likely draining a substantial part of the company’s $1 billion war chest.\nFor a closer look at the company’s cash flow situation, I suggest you read this article by InvestorPlace contributor Mark Hake.\nSPCE Stock Is a Gamble That Could Pay Off\nI don’t know what the odds are that Virgin Galactic will be successful. My gut instinct tells me that it’s less than 50%. But that’s for others to decide. This is one stock that I’m staying away from.\nIf you have money that you absolutely won’t need and can absolutely afford to lose, then SPCE stock may be a lottery ticket worth purchasing.\nBuy the shares and stick them in your mental drawer and wait. Once the company starts commercial flights, you could be rewarded handsomely. And if you keep your position small and Virgin Galactic fails to launch, you’ll be OK.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":607062161,"gmtCreate":1639459643079,"gmtModify":1639459643230,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569971237956537","idStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607062161","repostId":"1119480728","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119480728","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639459363,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119480728?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 13:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>迪士尼：并非所有订阅者生来平等</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119480728","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nQQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.\nDIS has not fully bounced ba","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>QQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.</li>  <li>DIS has not fully bounced back from 2020 but it's certainly healing.</li>  <li>DIS is far more like NFLX than MSFT or ADBE, despite any discussion or comparisons related to subscriber growth and associated metrics.</li>  <li>DIS has been far less of a growth stock than&nbsp;NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db18b8191ffe57bbd7ff43b3b4de329b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>QQQ轻松击败了DIS，而SPDR标普500指数ETF也做了同样的事情。</li><li>DIS尚未从2020年完全反弹，但肯定正在愈合。</li><li>尽管存在与用户增长和相关指标相关的任何讨论或比较，但DIS更像NFLX，而不是MSFT或ADBE。</li><li>与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS远不是一只成长型股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>马文·塞缪尔·托伦蒂诺·皮内达/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> I've owned Disney (DIS) since early 2016. I greatly enjoy DIS products and services. I am reasonably pleased with DIS stock performance.</p><p><blockquote>我自2016年初以来一直拥有迪士尼(DIS)。我非常喜欢DIS的产品和服务。我对DIS股票的表现相当满意。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58048f15fcf1af89506563ab33f6e301\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> 53% gains in 5 years isn't terrible but it's not spectacular either. For added perspective, let's quickly compare DIS with the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over 10 years or so.</p><p><blockquote>5年内53%的涨幅并不可怕，但也不引人注目。为了增加视角，让我们快速将DIS与标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）和纳斯达克100（QQQ）进行10年左右的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2cb75ad2becfcf9268f372150a7698\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, I zoomed out for a bigger picture view of things. Clearly, QQQ has crushed DIS. Over the same time, DIS has done about as well as SPY. It's clear the 2020 was rough on the price of DIS stock. However, it was also an incredible pivot opportunity for the business with Disney Plus, the streaming home of Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and way more.</p><p><blockquote>如你所见，我缩小了以获得更大的图片视图。显然，QQQ已经碾压了DIS。与此同时，DIS的表现与SPDR标普500指数ETF不相上下。很明显，2020年对DIS股票的价格来说是艰难的。然而，这也是Disney Plus业务的一个令人难以置信的关键机会，Disney Plus是迪士尼、皮克斯、漫威、星球大战、国家地理等的流媒体之家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model Update</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式更新</b></blockquote></p><p> It's clear that DIS has been incredibly focused on subscribers for Disney Plus. Here's a quick peek, from the&nbsp;Q4 2021 Earnings Call:</p><p><blockquote>很明显，DIS非常关注Disney Plus的订户。以下是2021年第四季度收益看涨期权的快速浏览：</blockquote></p><p>   On the Direct-to-Consumer side, we are extremely pleased with the success of our portfolio streaming services. Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu continue to perform incredibly well with a 118.1 million, 17.1 million, and 43.8 million subscribers, respectively, for a total of a 179 million subscriptions. To put this growth in perspective, in the past fiscal year alone, we have grown the total number of subscriptions across our DTC portfolio by 48%, and Disney+ subs in particular by 60%.  Now, here's the good news and bad news. DIS leadership is planning to reach 230 million to 260 million paid subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024. Obviously, that's phenomenal growth and investors should cheer. However, the dark side is that this growth isn't free.<b>DIS doesn't expect their portfolio of streaming services to reach profitability until 2024.</b>Ouch.</p><p><blockquote>在直接面向消费者方面，我们对我们组合流媒体服务的成功感到非常高兴。Disney+、ESPN+和Hulu继续表现出色，分别拥有1.181亿、1710万和4380万订阅用户，订阅总数为1.79亿。从这个角度来看，仅在上一财年，我们的DTC产品组合的订阅总数就增长了48%，尤其是Disney+订阅增长了60%。现在，这是好消息和坏消息。DIS领导层计划到2024财年末，全球付费用户数量达到2.3亿至2.6亿。显然，这是惊人的增长，投资者应该欢呼。然而，阴暗面是这种增长不是免费的。<b>DIS预计他们的流媒体服务组合要到2024年才能实现盈利。</b>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> The key point is that DIS is not simply bolting on Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, Hulu and so on, and adding profits to the bottom line. Instead, getting to this current level of subscribers has been chewing up time and resources. And, it'll be nasty for years. The investment will drain resources. More about this later.</p><p><blockquote>关键是，DIS并不是简单地抢占Disney Plus、ESPN Plus、Hulu等，为底线增加利润。相反，达到目前的用户水平一直在消耗时间和资源。而且，这将会持续很多年。这项投资会耗尽资源。稍后会详细介绍。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, very long term investors can cheer. DIS literally has the best intellectual media assets in the world. Really, there isn't any company even close. The library is amazing, huge, and growing.See for yourself.</p><p><blockquote>当然，长期投资者可以欢呼。DIS拥有世界上最好的知识媒体资产。真的，附近没有任何公司。这个图书馆很棒，很大，而且还在增长。你自己看吧。</blockquote></p><p> As a quick aside, most people, and most analysts expected a bigger \"snap back\" from 2020, especially in relation to park visits and related activity. For example, here's what we learned about&nbsp;attendance in August 2021:</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，大多数人和大多数分析师预计2020年将出现更大的“snap回归”，特别是在公园参观和相关活动方面。例如，以下是我们了解到的2021年8月的出勤情况：</blockquote></p><p>   Disney world does not share its actual capacity nor the number of attendees they get daily. But as stated above, the estimated number of average daily attendees was 57,000 before the pandemic started. So, at present, it might be welcoming a maximum of 35,000 guests daily&nbsp;  <b>running with a 35% capacity</b>. [Emphasis: Author]  Big picture, I'm not too worried about the parks and related real-world experiences offered by DIS. It might take longer to get running at full steam, but DIS can do it. I'm a bit more concerned that investors are expecting too much from DIS streaming services, without fully considering the costs. This is especially true for short term investors and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼世界不分享它的实际容量，也不分享他们每天的与会者人数。但如上所述，在疫情开始之前，估计日均出席人数为57,000人。因此，目前，它可能每天最多接待35,000名客人<b>以35%的容量运行</b>.[强调：作者]总的来说，我不太担心DIS提供的公园和相关的现实世界体验。全速运行可能需要更长的时间，但DIS可以做到。我更担心的是，投资者对DIS流媒体服务期望过高，而没有充分考虑成本。对于短期投资者和投机者来说尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Disney Is Not Microsoft or Adobe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迪斯尼不是微软或Adobe</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts like to compare DIS to enterprise software companies,<i>as if all subscribers are created equal</i>. Let's consider two incredible businesses. Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) have done exceptionally well in recent years, compared to DIS.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢将DIS比作企业软件公司，<i>好像所有订户都是平等的</i>.让我们考虑两个令人难以置信的业务。与DIS相比，微软(MSFT)和Adobe(ADBE)近年来的表现都非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247db57795d4cce4d0d919346b84c7f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, MSFT and ADBE have trounced DIS. In part, here's why:</p><p><blockquote>显然，MSFT和ADBE已经击败了DIS。部分原因如下：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90248d3aef70628dea5b4029b79b516\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> P/S for both MSFT and ADBE has roughly doubled. At a high level, prices are moving up faster than revenue generated for MSFT and ADBE. Meanwhile, investors place less value on DIS revenue. DIS has pretty much moved sideways.</p><p><blockquote>MSFT和ADBE的市盈率都大约翻了一番。在高水平上，价格的上涨速度快于MSFT和ADBE产生的收入。与此同时，投资者对DIS收入的重视程度较低。DIS几乎已经横向移动。</blockquote></p><p> Let's talk some real numbers. MSFT has grown earnings by 17% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.63 and in 2021 it's about $8. ADBE has grown earnings by about 29% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.08 and it's expected to hit a staggering $12.46 this year. Meanwhile, here's how DIS looks:</p><p><blockquote>我们来谈谈一些真实的数字。过去10年，MSFT的盈利每年增长17%。2015年，每股收益为2.63美元，2021年约为8美元。过去10年，ADBE的盈利每年增长约29%。2015年，每股收益为2.08美元，预计今年将达到惊人的12.46美元。同时，DIS的外观如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb56eaa4d09a70ca4f320a0e111896b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FASTgraphs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FASTgraphs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> EPS might get back to 2015 levels in 2023. The dividend was killed off. DIS share price is dramatically higher, even now, compared to earnings. There's a lot of pain in this chart.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益可能会在2023年恢复到2015年的水平。股息被取消了。即使是现在，与盈利相比，DIS的股价也要高得多。这张图表里有很多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p> All if this isn't to bash DIS or to imply that the products or business is terrible. The DIS brand is pristine. Leadership is strong. The company isn't going to suddenly fall off the face of the Earth.<i>The business is amazing</i>.</p><p><blockquote>如果这不是为了抨击DIS或暗示产品或业务很糟糕的话。DIS品牌是原始的。领导力强。该公司不会突然从地球上消失。<i>生意很惊人</i>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有订户都是平等的</b></blockquote></p><p> I'm not too keen to do this, but here's Netflix (NFLX) versus DIS.</p><p><blockquote>我不太热衷于这样做，但这是Netflix(NFLX)与DIS的对比。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55b99727d2cfebd285167f115f4387ae\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The only point I want to make is that NFLX shareholders have done far better than DIS shareholders. And, for a different perspective, here's how $10K would have done over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>我唯一想说的是，NFLX股东的表现远远好于DIS股东。从不同的角度来看，以下是1万美元在过去五年中的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4539b42cb1304e691ad2b38dbcbf4c2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's very hard for me to say that DIS is \"on sale\" when I look at the relatively flat performance over the last five years. While I think of DIS as a growth stock,<i>it's less of a growth stock</i>&nbsp;than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</p><p><blockquote>当我看到过去五年相对平淡的表现时，我很难说DIS正在“打折”。虽然我认为DIS是一只成长型股票，<i>它不是成长型股票</i>比NFLX、MSFT和ADBE。</blockquote></p><p> In large part, I believe this is all about our definition of subscribers. I'll come back to that in a second. First, feast your eyes on this:</p><p><blockquote>在很大程度上，我相信这就是我们对订户的定义。我一会儿会回到这个话题。首先，大饱眼福：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dfdf6d35c4eba3617e6fec280f09282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What you're seeing is profit margin for DIS, NFLX, MSFT and ADBE. Quite frankly, this paints a damning picture of DIS, especially since 2020. What's most impressive, on the other hand, is how MSFT and ADBE have had has consistently high and growing profit margins. I've got to say, I'm actually a bit surprised that NFLX just keeps getting stronger and stronger in this department as well.</p><p><blockquote>您看到的是DIS、NFLX、MSFT和ADBE的利润率。坦率地说，这为DIS描绘了一幅糟糕的画面，尤其是自2020年以来。另一方面，最令人印象深刻的是MSFT和ADBE的利润率一直很高且不断增长。我不得不说，我实际上有点惊讶NFLX在这个部门也变得越来越强大。</blockquote></p><p> By the way, as a sidebar, it's easy to complain about the NFLX P/E ratio. It's over 50 right now. But, at the same time, DIS is at 37, MSFT is at 37, and ADBE is at 52. In that respect, they are all quite overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，作为侧边栏，很容易抱怨NFLX市盈率。现在已经50多了。但与此同时，DIS为37，MSFT为37，ADBE为52。在这方面，它们都被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrap Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, here are my biggest points. NFLX has spent more than DIS on content and also has first mover advantage, loyalty and entrenchment. Many people have both NFLX and DIS, so I see less of a \"war\" than most people. Furthermore, it appears that NFLX has done an outstanding operational job, and their capital allocation has been strong. It's hard to look at this chart and dismiss NFLX. Clearly, it's a well-run company.</p><p><blockquote>现在，以下是我最大的观点。NFLX在内容上的支出超过了DIS，并且还拥有先发优势、忠诚度和巩固地位。很多人都有NFLX和DIS，所以我比大多数人看到的“战争”更少。此外，NFLX的运营工作似乎非常出色，他们的资本配置也很强劲。看着这张图表，很难忽视NFLX。显然，这是一家运营良好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c9d98acfdd8206fa2c0323144db713\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This next chart is extremely noisy, but you can scroll down and see the truth with your own two eyes. DIS has rather poor ROE, ROA and ROIC compared to NFLX, MSFT and ADBE.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表非常嘈杂，但你可以向下滚动，用你自己的两只眼睛看到真相。与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS的ROE、ROA和ROIC相当差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5aaf232d38eaceea4d9621f81a7a92f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To be fair, DIS was doing a pretty good job through early 2019. However, very importantly,<i>the drops appear to have started before 2020</i>. We cannot blame the pandemic for the decline in ROE, ROA and ROIC.</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，DIS在2019年初做得相当不错。然而，非常重要的是，<i>下降似乎在2020年之前就开始了</i>我们不能将ROE、ROA和ROIC的下降归咎于疫情。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear,DIS is going to be going gangbusters on content.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，DIS将在内容上大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p>   Disney plans to increase its overall content spend to around $33bn in 2022, marking an $8bn rise from the previous year.  Furthermore, the idea is that DIS will be&nbsp;rapidly growing the subscriber base.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼计划在2022年将其整体内容支出增加至330亿美元左右，比上一年增加80亿美元。此外，这个想法是DIS将迅速扩大用户群。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   Disney+ is expected to add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million.  In short, DIS isn't about to be left in the dust by NFLX. Something like 60 unscripted series, 30 comedy series and 25 drama shows will be produced. There's really too much to list here. Money is being put to work by DIS.</p><p><blockquote>Disney+预计在2021年至2026年间将增加1.4亿订阅用户，使其总数达到2.71亿。与此同时，Netflix同期将增加5300万订阅用户，使其到2026年订阅用户总数达到2.75亿。简而言之，DIS不会被NFLX远远甩在身后。大约60部无剧本系列、30部喜剧系列和25部戏剧将被制作出来。这里真的有太多了，无法一一列举。DIS正在投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Now, shifting gears, I have to say that both MSFT and ADBE have dramatically different types of subscribers. DIS and NFLX satisfy entertainment desires. These are wants,<i>not needs</i>.</p><p><blockquote>现在，换个角度，我不得不说MSFT和ADBE的订户类型截然不同。DIS和NFLX满足娱乐欲望。这些都是需求，<i>不需要</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Here's a good way to&nbsp;think about MSFT and ADBE:</p><p><blockquote>以下是思考MSFT和ADBE的好方法：</blockquote></p><p>   Both companies armed businesses big and small with the tools needed to stay in business since the pandemic. As the world moved to virtual work and school, PDFs with virtual signatures and Word docs with important information became standard.  In other words, MSFT and ADBE subscribers aren't \"addicted\" to the software, as much as they are<i>required to use it to do work</i>. When your job is on the line, you've got to be using industry standard tools. Furthermore, both NFLX and DIS are B2C whereas MSFT and ADBE are B2B. It's almost impossible to compare these companies, in terms of subscribers. Sure, we can discuss subscriber counts, subscriber growth, and so forth. But, MSFT and ADBE provide software to companies, and users must use those tools. They are sticky out of necessity, not mere desire. Therefore, let's all be very careful about how we think about DIS, and how we make comparisons.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行以来，两家公司都为大大小小的企业提供了维持业务所需的工具。随着世界转向虚拟工作和学校，带有虚拟签名的PDF和包含重要信息的Word文档成为标准。换句话说，MSFT和ADBE的用户并不像他们那样对软件“上瘾”<i>需要用它来做工作</i>.当你的工作岌岌可危时，你必须使用行业标准的工具。此外，NFLX和DIS都是B2C，而MSFT和ADBE是B2B。就订户而言，几乎不可能比较这些公司。当然，我们可以讨论用户数量、用户增长等等。但是，MSFT和ADBE向公司提供软件，用户必须使用这些工具。它们粘在一起是出于需要，而不仅仅是欲望。因此，让我们都非常小心我们如何看待DIS，以及我们如何进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> Putting all of this together, I still believe that DIS is a wonderful business. However, I would be cautious about adding a ton, especially if that decision is based on dazzling subscriber growth, or incredible content development. At this point, I see DIS as a reasonable hold.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我仍然相信DIS是一项出色的业务。然而，我会对增加一吨持谨慎态度，特别是如果这个决定是基于令人眼花缭乱的订户增长或令人难以置信的内容开发。在这一点上，我认为DIS是合理的持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>迪士尼：并非所有订阅者生来平等</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>迪士尼：并非所有订阅者生来平等</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 13:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>QQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.</li>  <li>DIS has not fully bounced back from 2020 but it's certainly healing.</li>  <li>DIS is far more like NFLX than MSFT or ADBE, despite any discussion or comparisons related to subscriber growth and associated metrics.</li>  <li>DIS has been far less of a growth stock than&nbsp;NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db18b8191ffe57bbd7ff43b3b4de329b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>QQQ轻松击败了DIS，而SPDR标普500指数ETF也做了同样的事情。</li><li>DIS尚未从2020年完全反弹，但肯定正在愈合。</li><li>尽管存在与用户增长和相关指标相关的任何讨论或比较，但DIS更像NFLX，而不是MSFT或ADBE。</li><li>与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS远不是一只成长型股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>马文·塞缪尔·托伦蒂诺·皮内达/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> I've owned Disney (DIS) since early 2016. I greatly enjoy DIS products and services. I am reasonably pleased with DIS stock performance.</p><p><blockquote>我自2016年初以来一直拥有迪士尼(DIS)。我非常喜欢DIS的产品和服务。我对DIS股票的表现相当满意。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58048f15fcf1af89506563ab33f6e301\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> 53% gains in 5 years isn't terrible but it's not spectacular either. For added perspective, let's quickly compare DIS with the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over 10 years or so.</p><p><blockquote>5年内53%的涨幅并不可怕，但也不引人注目。为了增加视角，让我们快速将DIS与标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）和纳斯达克100（QQQ）进行10年左右的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2cb75ad2becfcf9268f372150a7698\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, I zoomed out for a bigger picture view of things. Clearly, QQQ has crushed DIS. Over the same time, DIS has done about as well as SPY. It's clear the 2020 was rough on the price of DIS stock. However, it was also an incredible pivot opportunity for the business with Disney Plus, the streaming home of Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and way more.</p><p><blockquote>如你所见，我缩小了以获得更大的图片视图。显然，QQQ已经碾压了DIS。与此同时，DIS的表现与SPDR标普500指数ETF不相上下。很明显，2020年对DIS股票的价格来说是艰难的。然而，这也是Disney Plus业务的一个令人难以置信的关键机会，Disney Plus是迪士尼、皮克斯、漫威、星球大战、国家地理等的流媒体之家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model Update</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式更新</b></blockquote></p><p> It's clear that DIS has been incredibly focused on subscribers for Disney Plus. Here's a quick peek, from the&nbsp;Q4 2021 Earnings Call:</p><p><blockquote>很明显，DIS非常关注Disney Plus的订户。以下是2021年第四季度收益看涨期权的快速浏览：</blockquote></p><p>   On the Direct-to-Consumer side, we are extremely pleased with the success of our portfolio streaming services. Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu continue to perform incredibly well with a 118.1 million, 17.1 million, and 43.8 million subscribers, respectively, for a total of a 179 million subscriptions. To put this growth in perspective, in the past fiscal year alone, we have grown the total number of subscriptions across our DTC portfolio by 48%, and Disney+ subs in particular by 60%.  Now, here's the good news and bad news. DIS leadership is planning to reach 230 million to 260 million paid subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024. Obviously, that's phenomenal growth and investors should cheer. However, the dark side is that this growth isn't free.<b>DIS doesn't expect their portfolio of streaming services to reach profitability until 2024.</b>Ouch.</p><p><blockquote>在直接面向消费者方面，我们对我们组合流媒体服务的成功感到非常高兴。Disney+、ESPN+和Hulu继续表现出色，分别拥有1.181亿、1710万和4380万订阅用户，订阅总数为1.79亿。从这个角度来看，仅在上一财年，我们的DTC产品组合的订阅总数就增长了48%，尤其是Disney+订阅增长了60%。现在，这是好消息和坏消息。DIS领导层计划到2024财年末，全球付费用户数量达到2.3亿至2.6亿。显然，这是惊人的增长，投资者应该欢呼。然而，阴暗面是这种增长不是免费的。<b>DIS预计他们的流媒体服务组合要到2024年才能实现盈利。</b>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> The key point is that DIS is not simply bolting on Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, Hulu and so on, and adding profits to the bottom line. Instead, getting to this current level of subscribers has been chewing up time and resources. And, it'll be nasty for years. The investment will drain resources. More about this later.</p><p><blockquote>关键是，DIS并不是简单地抢占Disney Plus、ESPN Plus、Hulu等，为底线增加利润。相反，达到目前的用户水平一直在消耗时间和资源。而且，这将会持续很多年。这项投资会耗尽资源。稍后会详细介绍。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, very long term investors can cheer. DIS literally has the best intellectual media assets in the world. Really, there isn't any company even close. The library is amazing, huge, and growing.See for yourself.</p><p><blockquote>当然，长期投资者可以欢呼。DIS拥有世界上最好的知识媒体资产。真的，附近没有任何公司。这个图书馆很棒，很大，而且还在增长。你自己看吧。</blockquote></p><p> As a quick aside, most people, and most analysts expected a bigger \"snap back\" from 2020, especially in relation to park visits and related activity. For example, here's what we learned about&nbsp;attendance in August 2021:</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，大多数人和大多数分析师预计2020年将出现更大的“snap回归”，特别是在公园参观和相关活动方面。例如，以下是我们了解到的2021年8月的出勤情况：</blockquote></p><p>   Disney world does not share its actual capacity nor the number of attendees they get daily. But as stated above, the estimated number of average daily attendees was 57,000 before the pandemic started. So, at present, it might be welcoming a maximum of 35,000 guests daily&nbsp;  <b>running with a 35% capacity</b>. [Emphasis: Author]  Big picture, I'm not too worried about the parks and related real-world experiences offered by DIS. It might take longer to get running at full steam, but DIS can do it. I'm a bit more concerned that investors are expecting too much from DIS streaming services, without fully considering the costs. This is especially true for short term investors and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼世界不分享它的实际容量，也不分享他们每天的与会者人数。但如上所述，在疫情开始之前，估计日均出席人数为57,000人。因此，目前，它可能每天最多接待35,000名客人<b>以35%的容量运行</b>.[强调：作者]总的来说，我不太担心DIS提供的公园和相关的现实世界体验。全速运行可能需要更长的时间，但DIS可以做到。我更担心的是，投资者对DIS流媒体服务期望过高，而没有充分考虑成本。对于短期投资者和投机者来说尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Disney Is Not Microsoft or Adobe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迪斯尼不是微软或Adobe</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts like to compare DIS to enterprise software companies,<i>as if all subscribers are created equal</i>. Let's consider two incredible businesses. Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) have done exceptionally well in recent years, compared to DIS.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢将DIS比作企业软件公司，<i>好像所有订户都是平等的</i>.让我们考虑两个令人难以置信的业务。与DIS相比，微软(MSFT)和Adobe(ADBE)近年来的表现都非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247db57795d4cce4d0d919346b84c7f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, MSFT and ADBE have trounced DIS. In part, here's why:</p><p><blockquote>显然，MSFT和ADBE已经击败了DIS。部分原因如下：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90248d3aef70628dea5b4029b79b516\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> P/S for both MSFT and ADBE has roughly doubled. At a high level, prices are moving up faster than revenue generated for MSFT and ADBE. Meanwhile, investors place less value on DIS revenue. DIS has pretty much moved sideways.</p><p><blockquote>MSFT和ADBE的市盈率都大约翻了一番。在高水平上，价格的上涨速度快于MSFT和ADBE产生的收入。与此同时，投资者对DIS收入的重视程度较低。DIS几乎已经横向移动。</blockquote></p><p> Let's talk some real numbers. MSFT has grown earnings by 17% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.63 and in 2021 it's about $8. ADBE has grown earnings by about 29% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.08 and it's expected to hit a staggering $12.46 this year. Meanwhile, here's how DIS looks:</p><p><blockquote>我们来谈谈一些真实的数字。过去10年，MSFT的盈利每年增长17%。2015年，每股收益为2.63美元，2021年约为8美元。过去10年，ADBE的盈利每年增长约29%。2015年，每股收益为2.08美元，预计今年将达到惊人的12.46美元。同时，DIS的外观如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb56eaa4d09a70ca4f320a0e111896b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FASTgraphs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FASTgraphs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> EPS might get back to 2015 levels in 2023. The dividend was killed off. DIS share price is dramatically higher, even now, compared to earnings. There's a lot of pain in this chart.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益可能会在2023年恢复到2015年的水平。股息被取消了。即使是现在，与盈利相比，DIS的股价也要高得多。这张图表里有很多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p> All if this isn't to bash DIS or to imply that the products or business is terrible. The DIS brand is pristine. Leadership is strong. The company isn't going to suddenly fall off the face of the Earth.<i>The business is amazing</i>.</p><p><blockquote>如果这不是为了抨击DIS或暗示产品或业务很糟糕的话。DIS品牌是原始的。领导力强。该公司不会突然从地球上消失。<i>生意很惊人</i>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有订户都是平等的</b></blockquote></p><p> I'm not too keen to do this, but here's Netflix (NFLX) versus DIS.</p><p><blockquote>我不太热衷于这样做，但这是Netflix(NFLX)与DIS的对比。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55b99727d2cfebd285167f115f4387ae\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The only point I want to make is that NFLX shareholders have done far better than DIS shareholders. And, for a different perspective, here's how $10K would have done over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>我唯一想说的是，NFLX股东的表现远远好于DIS股东。从不同的角度来看，以下是1万美元在过去五年中的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4539b42cb1304e691ad2b38dbcbf4c2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's very hard for me to say that DIS is \"on sale\" when I look at the relatively flat performance over the last five years. While I think of DIS as a growth stock,<i>it's less of a growth stock</i>&nbsp;than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</p><p><blockquote>当我看到过去五年相对平淡的表现时，我很难说DIS正在“打折”。虽然我认为DIS是一只成长型股票，<i>它不是成长型股票</i>比NFLX、MSFT和ADBE。</blockquote></p><p> In large part, I believe this is all about our definition of subscribers. I'll come back to that in a second. First, feast your eyes on this:</p><p><blockquote>在很大程度上，我相信这就是我们对订户的定义。我一会儿会回到这个话题。首先，大饱眼福：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dfdf6d35c4eba3617e6fec280f09282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What you're seeing is profit margin for DIS, NFLX, MSFT and ADBE. Quite frankly, this paints a damning picture of DIS, especially since 2020. What's most impressive, on the other hand, is how MSFT and ADBE have had has consistently high and growing profit margins. I've got to say, I'm actually a bit surprised that NFLX just keeps getting stronger and stronger in this department as well.</p><p><blockquote>您看到的是DIS、NFLX、MSFT和ADBE的利润率。坦率地说，这为DIS描绘了一幅糟糕的画面，尤其是自2020年以来。另一方面，最令人印象深刻的是MSFT和ADBE的利润率一直很高且不断增长。我不得不说，我实际上有点惊讶NFLX在这个部门也变得越来越强大。</blockquote></p><p> By the way, as a sidebar, it's easy to complain about the NFLX P/E ratio. It's over 50 right now. But, at the same time, DIS is at 37, MSFT is at 37, and ADBE is at 52. In that respect, they are all quite overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，作为侧边栏，很容易抱怨NFLX市盈率。现在已经50多了。但与此同时，DIS为37，MSFT为37，ADBE为52。在这方面，它们都被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrap Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, here are my biggest points. NFLX has spent more than DIS on content and also has first mover advantage, loyalty and entrenchment. Many people have both NFLX and DIS, so I see less of a \"war\" than most people. Furthermore, it appears that NFLX has done an outstanding operational job, and their capital allocation has been strong. It's hard to look at this chart and dismiss NFLX. Clearly, it's a well-run company.</p><p><blockquote>现在，以下是我最大的观点。NFLX在内容上的支出超过了DIS，并且还拥有先发优势、忠诚度和巩固地位。很多人都有NFLX和DIS，所以我比大多数人看到的“战争”更少。此外，NFLX的运营工作似乎非常出色，他们的资本配置也很强劲。看着这张图表，很难忽视NFLX。显然，这是一家运营良好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c9d98acfdd8206fa2c0323144db713\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This next chart is extremely noisy, but you can scroll down and see the truth with your own two eyes. DIS has rather poor ROE, ROA and ROIC compared to NFLX, MSFT and ADBE.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表非常嘈杂，但你可以向下滚动，用你自己的两只眼睛看到真相。与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS的ROE、ROA和ROIC相当差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5aaf232d38eaceea4d9621f81a7a92f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To be fair, DIS was doing a pretty good job through early 2019. However, very importantly,<i>the drops appear to have started before 2020</i>. We cannot blame the pandemic for the decline in ROE, ROA and ROIC.</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，DIS在2019年初做得相当不错。然而，非常重要的是，<i>下降似乎在2020年之前就开始了</i>我们不能将ROE、ROA和ROIC的下降归咎于疫情。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear,DIS is going to be going gangbusters on content.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，DIS将在内容上大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p>   Disney plans to increase its overall content spend to around $33bn in 2022, marking an $8bn rise from the previous year.  Furthermore, the idea is that DIS will be&nbsp;rapidly growing the subscriber base.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼计划在2022年将其整体内容支出增加至330亿美元左右，比上一年增加80亿美元。此外，这个想法是DIS将迅速扩大用户群。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   Disney+ is expected to add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million.  In short, DIS isn't about to be left in the dust by NFLX. Something like 60 unscripted series, 30 comedy series and 25 drama shows will be produced. There's really too much to list here. Money is being put to work by DIS.</p><p><blockquote>Disney+预计在2021年至2026年间将增加1.4亿订阅用户，使其总数达到2.71亿。与此同时，Netflix同期将增加5300万订阅用户，使其到2026年订阅用户总数达到2.75亿。简而言之，DIS不会被NFLX远远甩在身后。大约60部无剧本系列、30部喜剧系列和25部戏剧将被制作出来。这里真的有太多了，无法一一列举。DIS正在投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Now, shifting gears, I have to say that both MSFT and ADBE have dramatically different types of subscribers. DIS and NFLX satisfy entertainment desires. These are wants,<i>not needs</i>.</p><p><blockquote>现在，换个角度，我不得不说MSFT和ADBE的订户类型截然不同。DIS和NFLX满足娱乐欲望。这些都是需求，<i>不需要</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Here's a good way to&nbsp;think about MSFT and ADBE:</p><p><blockquote>以下是思考MSFT和ADBE的好方法：</blockquote></p><p>   Both companies armed businesses big and small with the tools needed to stay in business since the pandemic. As the world moved to virtual work and school, PDFs with virtual signatures and Word docs with important information became standard.  In other words, MSFT and ADBE subscribers aren't \"addicted\" to the software, as much as they are<i>required to use it to do work</i>. When your job is on the line, you've got to be using industry standard tools. Furthermore, both NFLX and DIS are B2C whereas MSFT and ADBE are B2B. It's almost impossible to compare these companies, in terms of subscribers. Sure, we can discuss subscriber counts, subscriber growth, and so forth. But, MSFT and ADBE provide software to companies, and users must use those tools. They are sticky out of necessity, not mere desire. Therefore, let's all be very careful about how we think about DIS, and how we make comparisons.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行以来，两家公司都为大大小小的企业提供了维持业务所需的工具。随着世界转向虚拟工作和学校，带有虚拟签名的PDF和包含重要信息的Word文档成为标准。换句话说，MSFT和ADBE的用户并不像他们那样对软件“上瘾”<i>需要用它来做工作</i>.当你的工作岌岌可危时，你必须使用行业标准的工具。此外，NFLX和DIS都是B2C，而MSFT和ADBE是B2B。就订户而言，几乎不可能比较这些公司。当然，我们可以讨论用户数量、用户增长等等。但是，MSFT和ADBE向公司提供软件，用户必须使用这些工具。它们粘在一起是出于需要，而不仅仅是欲望。因此，让我们都非常小心我们如何看待DIS，以及我们如何进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> Putting all of this together, I still believe that DIS is a wonderful business. However, I would be cautious about adding a ton, especially if that decision is based on dazzling subscriber growth, or incredible content development. At this point, I see DIS as a reasonable hold.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我仍然相信DIS是一项出色的业务。然而，我会对增加一吨持谨慎态度，特别是如果这个决定是基于令人眼花缭乱的订户增长或令人难以置信的内容开发。在这一点上，我认为DIS是合理的持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475050-disney-all-subscribers-are-not-created-equal\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475050-disney-all-subscribers-are-not-created-equal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119480728","content_text":"Summary\n\nQQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.\nDIS has not fully bounced back from 2020 but it's certainly healing.\nDIS is far more like NFLX than MSFT or ADBE, despite any discussion or comparisons related to subscriber growth and associated metrics.\nDIS has been far less of a growth stock than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.\n\nMarvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nBackground\nI've owned Disney (DIS) since early 2016. I greatly enjoy DIS products and services. I am reasonably pleased with DIS stock performance.\nData by YCharts\n53% gains in 5 years isn't terrible but it's not spectacular either. For added perspective, let's quickly compare DIS with the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over 10 years or so.\nData by YCharts\nAs you can see, I zoomed out for a bigger picture view of things. Clearly, QQQ has crushed DIS. Over the same time, DIS has done about as well as SPY. It's clear the 2020 was rough on the price of DIS stock. However, it was also an incredible pivot opportunity for the business with Disney Plus, the streaming home of Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and way more.\nBusiness Model Update\nIt's clear that DIS has been incredibly focused on subscribers for Disney Plus. Here's a quick peek, from the Q4 2021 Earnings Call:\n\n On the Direct-to-Consumer side, we are extremely pleased with the success of our portfolio streaming services. Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu continue to perform incredibly well with a 118.1 million, 17.1 million, and 43.8 million subscribers, respectively, for a total of a 179 million subscriptions. To put this growth in perspective, in the past fiscal year alone, we have grown the total number of subscriptions across our DTC portfolio by 48%, and Disney+ subs in particular by 60%.\n\nNow, here's the good news and bad news. DIS leadership is planning to reach 230 million to 260 million paid subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024. Obviously, that's phenomenal growth and investors should cheer. However, the dark side is that this growth isn't free.DIS doesn't expect their portfolio of streaming services to reach profitability until 2024.Ouch.\nThe key point is that DIS is not simply bolting on Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, Hulu and so on, and adding profits to the bottom line. Instead, getting to this current level of subscribers has been chewing up time and resources. And, it'll be nasty for years. The investment will drain resources. More about this later.\nOf course, very long term investors can cheer. DIS literally has the best intellectual media assets in the world. Really, there isn't any company even close. The library is amazing, huge, and growing.See for yourself.\nAs a quick aside, most people, and most analysts expected a bigger \"snap back\" from 2020, especially in relation to park visits and related activity. For example, here's what we learned about attendance in August 2021:\n\n Disney world does not share its actual capacity nor the number of attendees they get daily. But as stated above, the estimated number of average daily attendees was 57,000 before the pandemic started. So, at present, it might be welcoming a maximum of 35,000 guests daily \n running with a 35% capacity. [Emphasis: Author]\n\nBig picture, I'm not too worried about the parks and related real-world experiences offered by DIS. It might take longer to get running at full steam, but DIS can do it. I'm a bit more concerned that investors are expecting too much from DIS streaming services, without fully considering the costs. This is especially true for short term investors and speculators.\nDisney Is Not Microsoft or Adobe\nAnalysts like to compare DIS to enterprise software companies,as if all subscribers are created equal. Let's consider two incredible businesses. Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) have done exceptionally well in recent years, compared to DIS.\nData by YCharts\nClearly, MSFT and ADBE have trounced DIS. In part, here's why:\nData by YCharts\nP/S for both MSFT and ADBE has roughly doubled. At a high level, prices are moving up faster than revenue generated for MSFT and ADBE. Meanwhile, investors place less value on DIS revenue. DIS has pretty much moved sideways.\nLet's talk some real numbers. MSFT has grown earnings by 17% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.63 and in 2021 it's about $8. ADBE has grown earnings by about 29% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.08 and it's expected to hit a staggering $12.46 this year. Meanwhile, here's how DIS looks:\nSource: FASTgraphs\nEPS might get back to 2015 levels in 2023. The dividend was killed off. DIS share price is dramatically higher, even now, compared to earnings. There's a lot of pain in this chart.\nAll if this isn't to bash DIS or to imply that the products or business is terrible. The DIS brand is pristine. Leadership is strong. The company isn't going to suddenly fall off the face of the Earth.The business is amazing.\nAll Subscribers Are Not Created Equal\nI'm not too keen to do this, but here's Netflix (NFLX) versus DIS.\nData by YCharts\nThe only point I want to make is that NFLX shareholders have done far better than DIS shareholders. And, for a different perspective, here's how $10K would have done over the last five years.\nData by YCharts\nIt's very hard for me to say that DIS is \"on sale\" when I look at the relatively flat performance over the last five years. While I think of DIS as a growth stock,it's less of a growth stock than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.\nIn large part, I believe this is all about our definition of subscribers. I'll come back to that in a second. First, feast your eyes on this:\nData by YCharts\nWhat you're seeing is profit margin for DIS, NFLX, MSFT and ADBE. Quite frankly, this paints a damning picture of DIS, especially since 2020. What's most impressive, on the other hand, is how MSFT and ADBE have had has consistently high and growing profit margins. I've got to say, I'm actually a bit surprised that NFLX just keeps getting stronger and stronger in this department as well.\nBy the way, as a sidebar, it's easy to complain about the NFLX P/E ratio. It's over 50 right now. But, at the same time, DIS is at 37, MSFT is at 37, and ADBE is at 52. In that respect, they are all quite overvalued.\nWrap Up\nNow, here are my biggest points. NFLX has spent more than DIS on content and also has first mover advantage, loyalty and entrenchment. Many people have both NFLX and DIS, so I see less of a \"war\" than most people. Furthermore, it appears that NFLX has done an outstanding operational job, and their capital allocation has been strong. It's hard to look at this chart and dismiss NFLX. Clearly, it's a well-run company.\nData by YCharts\nThis next chart is extremely noisy, but you can scroll down and see the truth with your own two eyes. DIS has rather poor ROE, ROA and ROIC compared to NFLX, MSFT and ADBE.\nData by YCharts\nTo be fair, DIS was doing a pretty good job through early 2019. However, very importantly,the drops appear to have started before 2020. We cannot blame the pandemic for the decline in ROE, ROA and ROIC.\nTo be clear,DIS is going to be going gangbusters on content.\n\n Disney plans to increase its overall content spend to around $33bn in 2022, marking an $8bn rise from the previous year.\n\nFurthermore, the idea is that DIS will be rapidly growing the subscriber base.\n\n Disney+ is expected to add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million.\n\nIn short, DIS isn't about to be left in the dust by NFLX. Something like 60 unscripted series, 30 comedy series and 25 drama shows will be produced. There's really too much to list here. Money is being put to work by DIS.\nNow, shifting gears, I have to say that both MSFT and ADBE have dramatically different types of subscribers. DIS and NFLX satisfy entertainment desires. These are wants,not needs.\nHere's a good way to think about MSFT and ADBE:\n\n Both companies armed businesses big and small with the tools needed to stay in business since the pandemic. As the world moved to virtual work and school, PDFs with virtual signatures and Word docs with important information became standard.\n\nIn other words, MSFT and ADBE subscribers aren't \"addicted\" to the software, as much as they arerequired to use it to do work. When your job is on the line, you've got to be using industry standard tools. Furthermore, both NFLX and DIS are B2C whereas MSFT and ADBE are B2B. It's almost impossible to compare these companies, in terms of subscribers. Sure, we can discuss subscriber counts, subscriber growth, and so forth. But, MSFT and ADBE provide software to companies, and users must use those tools. They are sticky out of necessity, not mere desire. Therefore, let's all be very careful about how we think about DIS, and how we make comparisons.\nPutting all of this together, I still believe that DIS is a wonderful business. However, I would be cautious about adding a ton, especially if that decision is based on dazzling subscriber growth, or incredible content development. At this point, I see DIS as a reasonable hold.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867625056,"gmtCreate":1633257976780,"gmtModify":1633257976995,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569971237956537","idStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867625056","repostId":"2172647479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600165697,"gmtCreate":1638095838404,"gmtModify":1638095838542,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569971237956537","idStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600165697","repostId":"2186432895","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":851125132,"gmtCreate":1634884056370,"gmtModify":1634884056439,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569971237956537","idStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851125132","repostId":"1184152939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":817773651,"gmtCreate":1630993512473,"gmtModify":1631893392357,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569971237956537","idStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817773651","repostId":"2165331788","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166355093,"gmtCreate":1623993335912,"gmtModify":1634024423624,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569971237956537","idStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"EVs growth story","listText":"EVs growth story","text":"EVs growth story","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166355093","repostId":"1130200368","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":875612743,"gmtCreate":1637642097657,"gmtModify":1637642097774,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569971237956537","idStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875612743","repostId":"2185808120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2185808120","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1637625517,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2185808120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 07:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's what Powell's nomination for 2nd term as Fed chairman means for markets<blockquote>这就是鲍威尔被提名连任美联储主席对市场的意义</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2185808120","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors buoyed by 'continuity' as rival Brainard gets No. 2 spot, analysts say\nMarketWatch photo i","content":"<p>Investors buoyed by 'continuity' as rival Brainard gets No. 2 spot, analysts say</p><p><blockquote>分析师称，竞争对手布雷纳德获得第二名，投资者受到“连续性”的鼓舞</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d3ac1d26d057b0dd795501f245715c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch照片插图/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock-market investors appeared to be cheering President Joe Biden's decision Monday to nominate Jerome Powell to serve a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chairman.</p><p><blockquote>股市投资者似乎对乔·拜登总统周一提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席第二个四年任期的决定感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p> The move had been widely anticipated by many, including betting markets.</p><p><blockquote>此举受到了包括博彩市场在内的许多人的广泛预期。</blockquote></p><p> Some questions about Powell being renamed to the helm of the central had been lingering as markets have been anxious about a surge in inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic, and some have argued that the central bank needs to employ more aggressive tactics or risk a 1970s-style surge in the price of goods and services amid supply-chain bottlenecks and a surge in demand.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场对大流行后通胀飙升感到焦虑，有关鲍威尔被重新任命为央行行长的一些问题一直挥之不去，一些人认为央行需要采取更激进的策略，否则就会面临20世纪70年代的风险。供应链瓶颈和需求激增导致商品和服务价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Biden's choice was seen as coming down to Powell or Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, who was viewed by analysts as potentially more dovish on inflation. Biden nominated Brainard to a term as vice chairwoman, succeeding Richard Clarida, whose term as the central bank's No. 2 official expires on Jan. 31.</p><p><blockquote>拜登的选择被视为取决于鲍威尔或美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德，分析师认为后者在通胀问题上可能更加鸽派。拜登提名布雷纳德担任副主席，接替理查德·克拉里达，后者作为央行二号官员的任期将于1月31日到期。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both were great candidates but sticking with Powell provided valuable continuity as the Fed seeks to implement its new framework and continue to put employment alongside price stability as a core mandate,\" said Kathryn Judge, a professor at Columbia Law School. \"Particularly with recent price increases and growing concerns about inflation, there are benefits from standing by a trusted and widely respected leader.\"</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院教授凯瑟琳·贾奇表示：“两人都是很好的候选人，但在美联储寻求实施其新框架并继续将就业和价格稳定作为核心任务时，坚持鲍威尔提供了宝贵的连续性。”“特别是在最近物价上涨和对通胀日益担忧的情况下，支持一位值得信赖且广受尊重的领导人是有好处的。”</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index were all trading at or near records.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均处于或接近历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"The reappointment of Chairman Powell is a very positive development for markets and the economy because it provides continuity at a critical time,\" wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, in emailed comments.</p><p><blockquote>独立顾问联盟首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利(Chris Zaccarelli)在电子邮件评论中写道：“鲍威尔主席的连任对市场和经济来说是一个非常积极的发展，因为它在关键时刻提供了连续性。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell's nomination also comes as the Fed has begun to taper its monthly purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, on a timetable to wind down the program by June. Many also are anticipating that the Fed also might look to raise rates two or three times in 2022 as it attempts to rein in the surge in inflation and normalize interest rates in the aftermath of the worst pandemic in over a century.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔获得提名之际，美联储已开始缩减每月购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的规模，并计划在6月前结束该计划。许多人还预计，美联储也可能在2022年加息两到三次，试图在一个多世纪以来最严重的疫情之后遏制通胀飙升并使利率正常化。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy is experiencing an increase in inflation and the Fed has already taken steps to reduce their extraordinary stimulus measures (tapering), but they will need to move more quickly in addressing the inflation threats so that they don't become entrenched,\" Zaccarelli writes.</p><p><blockquote>“经济正在经历通胀上升，美联储已经采取措施减少非常规刺激措施（缩减），但他们需要更快地应对通胀威胁，以免它们变得根深蒂固，”扎卡雷利写道。</blockquote></p><p> The nominations end months of uncertainty and speculation about the leadership of the Fed at what is viewed as a crucial time in the recovery phase of the economy. Markets have been climbing to all-time highs even as yields for long-dated Treasurys were receding, suggesting that doubts remain about the economic outlook.</p><p><blockquote>在被视为经济复苏阶段的关键时刻，这些提名结束了数月来对美联储领导层的不确定性和猜测。尽管长期国债收益率下降，但市场仍在攀升至历史高位，这表明人们对经济前景仍存疑虑。</blockquote></p><p> The yield for the 10-year Treasury note was hovering just below 1.60%, after climbing over 5 basis points, while the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indexes touched record intraday highs on Monday, the start of a historically solid period for equities in the week of Thanksgiving.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率在攀升超过5个基点后徘徊在略低于1.60%的水平，而标普500和纳斯达克综合指数周一触及盘中历史新高，这是股市历史上稳定时期的开始。感恩节的一周。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the Fed appears split about monetary-policy next steps, with some advocating for a go-slow approach to tapering and interest-rate raises, while others have been championing a faster rate of normalization moves to beat back inflation. The pace of consumer inflation over the past year marched to 6.2% in October from 5.4% in the prior month. That is more than triple the Federal Reserve's 2% target and is the highest rate since November 1990.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，美联储在货币政策下一步措施上似乎存在分歧，一些人主张采取缓慢的缩减和加息方式，而另一些人则主张加快正常化步伐以抑制通胀。过去一年的消费者通胀率从上月的5.4%升至10月份的6.2%。这是美联储2%目标的三倍多，也是自1990年11月以来的最高利率。</blockquote></p><p> The outlook for inflation seems uncertain, with some betting that pricing pressures will intensify, while others are making the case that inflation is in the process of peaking.</p><p><blockquote>通胀前景似乎不确定，一些人押注定价压力将加剧，而另一些人则认为通胀正在见顶。</blockquote></p><p> For his part, Powell has been viewed by supporters within the administration as a steady hand, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources, describing him as helping \"restore bipartisan support for the central bank one decade after its reputation was badly bruised by the 2008 financial crisis.\"</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》援引消息人士的话报道称，鲍威尔被政府内部的支持者视为一只稳定的手，称他帮助“在央行声誉因2008年金融危机而严重受损十年后恢复了两党对央行的支持”。危机。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I have full confidence after their trial by fire over the last 20 months that Chair Powell and Dr. Brainard will provide the strong leadership our country needs,\" Biden said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>拜登在一份声明中表示：“经过过去20个月的考验，我完全相信鲍威尔主席和布雷纳德博士将提供我们国家所需的强有力的领导。”</blockquote></p><p> The Senate is expected to confirm Powell, 68, before his first term expires in February.</p><p><blockquote>预计参议院将在68岁的鲍威尔的第一个任期于2月份到期之前确认他的身份。</blockquote></p><p> The Journal report said that putting Brainard as the Fed No. 2 represents a compromise for Biden with progressives in his party who had criticized Powell. Indeed, Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, accused Powell of watering down financial safeguards put in place after the panic of 2008 and called him a \"dangerous man.\"</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》报道称，让布雷纳德担任美联储二号人物代表了拜登与党内批评鲍威尔的进步人士的妥协。事实上，马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)指责鲍威尔淡化了2008年恐慌后实施的金融保障措施，并称他为“危险人物”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, Powell's renomination represents \"one less worry now,\" for markets participants.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)表示，鲍威尔的再次提名代表着市场参与者“现在少了一个担忧”。</blockquote></p><p> Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investments at Thornburg Investment Management, said that \"with elevating inflation concerns on just about everyone's mind, Brainard would have been more difficult for the market to digest as chair.\"</p><p><blockquote>Thornburg Investment Management投资联席主管杰夫·克林格霍弗(Jeff Klingelhofer)表示，“随着几乎每个人都对通胀担忧加剧，布雷纳德担任主席会更难让市场消化。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Her appointment to vice chair offers Democrats a ballast to Powell and a likely regulatory win,\" he wrote, in emailed remarks.</p><p><blockquote>他在电子邮件中写道：“她被任命为副主席为民主党人提供了对鲍威尔的压舱石，并可能在监管方面取得胜利。”</blockquote></p><p> Biden will still oversee three other nominations for the Fed, including a replacement for Federal Reserve Gov. Randal Quarles, after a number of members announcement early retirements. Quarles said that he would resign at the end of December.</p><p><blockquote>在一些成员宣布提前退休后，拜登仍将监督美联储的其他三项提名，包括美联储理事兰德尔·夸尔斯的继任者。夸尔斯表示，他将在12月底辞职。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Powell's pick is likely to be a positive for digital assets like bitcoin , which the central banker has said that he would not move to restrict. The Fed also has been working on its own central bank digital currency, or CBDC.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，鲍威尔的选择可能对比特币等数字资产有利，鲍威尔曾表示不会采取行动限制这些资产。美联储也一直在研究自己的央行数字货币（CBDC）。</blockquote></p><p> Bank stocks also were climbing reports, MarketWatch's Steve Gelsi. He notes that Brainard's name had come up as someone who might take bank regulator to replace the position being vacated by Trump nominee Quarles. The position could be vacated for some time, with potential candidates including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, former Fed Gov. Sarah Bloom Raskin and acting comptroller of the currency Michael Hsu in the mix.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch的Steve Gelsi报告称，银行股也在攀升。他指出，布雷纳德的名字可能会接替特朗普提名人夸尔斯空出的职位。该职位可能会空缺一段时间，潜在候选人包括亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克、前美联储理事莎拉·布鲁姆·拉斯金和代理货币审计长迈克尔·许。</blockquote></p><p> The financial sectors&nbsp;rose 1.4% on Monday, among the best performing among the S&amp;P 500's 11 sectors on Monday. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF&nbsp;rose 1.3%, while the Invesco KBW Bank ETF&nbsp;rose 1.8%, as Treasury yields climbed on the session.</p><p><blockquote>金融板块周一上涨1.4%，在周一标普500 11个板块中表现最好。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF上涨1.3%，Invesco KBW Bank ETF上涨1.8%，因国债收益率盘中攀升。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's what Powell's nomination for 2nd term as Fed chairman means for markets<blockquote>这就是鲍威尔被提名连任美联储主席对市场的意义</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's what Powell's nomination for 2nd term as Fed chairman means for markets<blockquote>这就是鲍威尔被提名连任美联储主席对市场的意义</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-23 07:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors buoyed by 'continuity' as rival Brainard gets No. 2 spot, analysts say</p><p><blockquote>分析师称，竞争对手布雷纳德获得第二名，投资者受到“连续性”的鼓舞</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d3ac1d26d057b0dd795501f245715c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch照片插图/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock-market investors appeared to be cheering President Joe Biden's decision Monday to nominate Jerome Powell to serve a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chairman.</p><p><blockquote>股市投资者似乎对乔·拜登总统周一提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席第二个四年任期的决定感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p> The move had been widely anticipated by many, including betting markets.</p><p><blockquote>此举受到了包括博彩市场在内的许多人的广泛预期。</blockquote></p><p> Some questions about Powell being renamed to the helm of the central had been lingering as markets have been anxious about a surge in inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic, and some have argued that the central bank needs to employ more aggressive tactics or risk a 1970s-style surge in the price of goods and services amid supply-chain bottlenecks and a surge in demand.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场对大流行后通胀飙升感到焦虑，有关鲍威尔被重新任命为央行行长的一些问题一直挥之不去，一些人认为央行需要采取更激进的策略，否则就会面临20世纪70年代的风险。供应链瓶颈和需求激增导致商品和服务价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Biden's choice was seen as coming down to Powell or Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, who was viewed by analysts as potentially more dovish on inflation. Biden nominated Brainard to a term as vice chairwoman, succeeding Richard Clarida, whose term as the central bank's No. 2 official expires on Jan. 31.</p><p><blockquote>拜登的选择被视为取决于鲍威尔或美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德，分析师认为后者在通胀问题上可能更加鸽派。拜登提名布雷纳德担任副主席，接替理查德·克拉里达，后者作为央行二号官员的任期将于1月31日到期。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both were great candidates but sticking with Powell provided valuable continuity as the Fed seeks to implement its new framework and continue to put employment alongside price stability as a core mandate,\" said Kathryn Judge, a professor at Columbia Law School. \"Particularly with recent price increases and growing concerns about inflation, there are benefits from standing by a trusted and widely respected leader.\"</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院教授凯瑟琳·贾奇表示：“两人都是很好的候选人，但在美联储寻求实施其新框架并继续将就业和价格稳定作为核心任务时，坚持鲍威尔提供了宝贵的连续性。”“特别是在最近物价上涨和对通胀日益担忧的情况下，支持一位值得信赖且广受尊重的领导人是有好处的。”</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index were all trading at or near records.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均处于或接近历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"The reappointment of Chairman Powell is a very positive development for markets and the economy because it provides continuity at a critical time,\" wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, in emailed comments.</p><p><blockquote>独立顾问联盟首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利(Chris Zaccarelli)在电子邮件评论中写道：“鲍威尔主席的连任对市场和经济来说是一个非常积极的发展，因为它在关键时刻提供了连续性。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell's nomination also comes as the Fed has begun to taper its monthly purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, on a timetable to wind down the program by June. Many also are anticipating that the Fed also might look to raise rates two or three times in 2022 as it attempts to rein in the surge in inflation and normalize interest rates in the aftermath of the worst pandemic in over a century.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔获得提名之际，美联储已开始缩减每月购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的规模，并计划在6月前结束该计划。许多人还预计，美联储也可能在2022年加息两到三次，试图在一个多世纪以来最严重的疫情之后遏制通胀飙升并使利率正常化。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy is experiencing an increase in inflation and the Fed has already taken steps to reduce their extraordinary stimulus measures (tapering), but they will need to move more quickly in addressing the inflation threats so that they don't become entrenched,\" Zaccarelli writes.</p><p><blockquote>“经济正在经历通胀上升，美联储已经采取措施减少非常规刺激措施（缩减），但他们需要更快地应对通胀威胁，以免它们变得根深蒂固，”扎卡雷利写道。</blockquote></p><p> The nominations end months of uncertainty and speculation about the leadership of the Fed at what is viewed as a crucial time in the recovery phase of the economy. Markets have been climbing to all-time highs even as yields for long-dated Treasurys were receding, suggesting that doubts remain about the economic outlook.</p><p><blockquote>在被视为经济复苏阶段的关键时刻，这些提名结束了数月来对美联储领导层的不确定性和猜测。尽管长期国债收益率下降，但市场仍在攀升至历史高位，这表明人们对经济前景仍存疑虑。</blockquote></p><p> The yield for the 10-year Treasury note was hovering just below 1.60%, after climbing over 5 basis points, while the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indexes touched record intraday highs on Monday, the start of a historically solid period for equities in the week of Thanksgiving.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率在攀升超过5个基点后徘徊在略低于1.60%的水平，而标普500和纳斯达克综合指数周一触及盘中历史新高，这是股市历史上稳定时期的开始。感恩节的一周。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the Fed appears split about monetary-policy next steps, with some advocating for a go-slow approach to tapering and interest-rate raises, while others have been championing a faster rate of normalization moves to beat back inflation. The pace of consumer inflation over the past year marched to 6.2% in October from 5.4% in the prior month. That is more than triple the Federal Reserve's 2% target and is the highest rate since November 1990.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，美联储在货币政策下一步措施上似乎存在分歧，一些人主张采取缓慢的缩减和加息方式，而另一些人则主张加快正常化步伐以抑制通胀。过去一年的消费者通胀率从上月的5.4%升至10月份的6.2%。这是美联储2%目标的三倍多，也是自1990年11月以来的最高利率。</blockquote></p><p> The outlook for inflation seems uncertain, with some betting that pricing pressures will intensify, while others are making the case that inflation is in the process of peaking.</p><p><blockquote>通胀前景似乎不确定，一些人押注定价压力将加剧，而另一些人则认为通胀正在见顶。</blockquote></p><p> For his part, Powell has been viewed by supporters within the administration as a steady hand, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources, describing him as helping \"restore bipartisan support for the central bank one decade after its reputation was badly bruised by the 2008 financial crisis.\"</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》援引消息人士的话报道称，鲍威尔被政府内部的支持者视为一只稳定的手，称他帮助“在央行声誉因2008年金融危机而严重受损十年后恢复了两党对央行的支持”。危机。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I have full confidence after their trial by fire over the last 20 months that Chair Powell and Dr. Brainard will provide the strong leadership our country needs,\" Biden said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>拜登在一份声明中表示：“经过过去20个月的考验，我完全相信鲍威尔主席和布雷纳德博士将提供我们国家所需的强有力的领导。”</blockquote></p><p> The Senate is expected to confirm Powell, 68, before his first term expires in February.</p><p><blockquote>预计参议院将在68岁的鲍威尔的第一个任期于2月份到期之前确认他的身份。</blockquote></p><p> The Journal report said that putting Brainard as the Fed No. 2 represents a compromise for Biden with progressives in his party who had criticized Powell. Indeed, Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, accused Powell of watering down financial safeguards put in place after the panic of 2008 and called him a \"dangerous man.\"</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》报道称，让布雷纳德担任美联储二号人物代表了拜登与党内批评鲍威尔的进步人士的妥协。事实上，马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)指责鲍威尔淡化了2008年恐慌后实施的金融保障措施，并称他为“危险人物”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, Powell's renomination represents \"one less worry now,\" for markets participants.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)表示，鲍威尔的再次提名代表着市场参与者“现在少了一个担忧”。</blockquote></p><p> Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investments at Thornburg Investment Management, said that \"with elevating inflation concerns on just about everyone's mind, Brainard would have been more difficult for the market to digest as chair.\"</p><p><blockquote>Thornburg Investment Management投资联席主管杰夫·克林格霍弗(Jeff Klingelhofer)表示，“随着几乎每个人都对通胀担忧加剧，布雷纳德担任主席会更难让市场消化。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Her appointment to vice chair offers Democrats a ballast to Powell and a likely regulatory win,\" he wrote, in emailed remarks.</p><p><blockquote>他在电子邮件中写道：“她被任命为副主席为民主党人提供了对鲍威尔的压舱石，并可能在监管方面取得胜利。”</blockquote></p><p> Biden will still oversee three other nominations for the Fed, including a replacement for Federal Reserve Gov. Randal Quarles, after a number of members announcement early retirements. Quarles said that he would resign at the end of December.</p><p><blockquote>在一些成员宣布提前退休后，拜登仍将监督美联储的其他三项提名，包括美联储理事兰德尔·夸尔斯的继任者。夸尔斯表示，他将在12月底辞职。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Powell's pick is likely to be a positive for digital assets like bitcoin , which the central banker has said that he would not move to restrict. The Fed also has been working on its own central bank digital currency, or CBDC.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，鲍威尔的选择可能对比特币等数字资产有利，鲍威尔曾表示不会采取行动限制这些资产。美联储也一直在研究自己的央行数字货币（CBDC）。</blockquote></p><p> Bank stocks also were climbing reports, MarketWatch's Steve Gelsi. He notes that Brainard's name had come up as someone who might take bank regulator to replace the position being vacated by Trump nominee Quarles. The position could be vacated for some time, with potential candidates including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, former Fed Gov. Sarah Bloom Raskin and acting comptroller of the currency Michael Hsu in the mix.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch的Steve Gelsi报告称，银行股也在攀升。他指出，布雷纳德的名字可能会接替特朗普提名人夸尔斯空出的职位。该职位可能会空缺一段时间，潜在候选人包括亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克、前美联储理事莎拉·布鲁姆·拉斯金和代理货币审计长迈克尔·许。</blockquote></p><p> The financial sectors&nbsp;rose 1.4% on Monday, among the best performing among the S&amp;P 500's 11 sectors on Monday. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF&nbsp;rose 1.3%, while the Invesco KBW Bank ETF&nbsp;rose 1.8%, as Treasury yields climbed on the session.</p><p><blockquote>金融板块周一上涨1.4%，在周一标普500 11个板块中表现最好。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF上涨1.3%，Invesco KBW Bank ETF上涨1.8%，因国债收益率盘中攀升。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-powells-nomination-for-2nd-term-as-fed-chairman-means-for-markets-11637599539?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","XLF":"金融ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-powells-nomination-for-2nd-term-as-fed-chairman-means-for-markets-11637599539?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2185808120","content_text":"Investors buoyed by 'continuity' as rival Brainard gets No. 2 spot, analysts say\nMarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images\nStock-market investors appeared to be cheering President Joe Biden's decision Monday to nominate Jerome Powell to serve a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chairman.\nThe move had been widely anticipated by many, including betting markets.\nSome questions about Powell being renamed to the helm of the central had been lingering as markets have been anxious about a surge in inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic, and some have argued that the central bank needs to employ more aggressive tactics or risk a 1970s-style surge in the price of goods and services amid supply-chain bottlenecks and a surge in demand.\nBiden's choice was seen as coming down to Powell or Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, who was viewed by analysts as potentially more dovish on inflation. Biden nominated Brainard to a term as vice chairwoman, succeeding Richard Clarida, whose term as the central bank's No. 2 official expires on Jan. 31.\n\"Both were great candidates but sticking with Powell provided valuable continuity as the Fed seeks to implement its new framework and continue to put employment alongside price stability as a core mandate,\" said Kathryn Judge, a professor at Columbia Law School. \"Particularly with recent price increases and growing concerns about inflation, there are benefits from standing by a trusted and widely respected leader.\"\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index were all trading at or near records.\n\"The reappointment of Chairman Powell is a very positive development for markets and the economy because it provides continuity at a critical time,\" wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, in emailed comments.\nPowell's nomination also comes as the Fed has begun to taper its monthly purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, on a timetable to wind down the program by June. Many also are anticipating that the Fed also might look to raise rates two or three times in 2022 as it attempts to rein in the surge in inflation and normalize interest rates in the aftermath of the worst pandemic in over a century.\n\"The economy is experiencing an increase in inflation and the Fed has already taken steps to reduce their extraordinary stimulus measures (tapering), but they will need to move more quickly in addressing the inflation threats so that they don't become entrenched,\" Zaccarelli writes.\nThe nominations end months of uncertainty and speculation about the leadership of the Fed at what is viewed as a crucial time in the recovery phase of the economy. Markets have been climbing to all-time highs even as yields for long-dated Treasurys were receding, suggesting that doubts remain about the economic outlook.\nThe yield for the 10-year Treasury note was hovering just below 1.60%, after climbing over 5 basis points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indexes touched record intraday highs on Monday, the start of a historically solid period for equities in the week of Thanksgiving.\nOn top of that, the Fed appears split about monetary-policy next steps, with some advocating for a go-slow approach to tapering and interest-rate raises, while others have been championing a faster rate of normalization moves to beat back inflation. The pace of consumer inflation over the past year marched to 6.2% in October from 5.4% in the prior month. That is more than triple the Federal Reserve's 2% target and is the highest rate since November 1990.\nThe outlook for inflation seems uncertain, with some betting that pricing pressures will intensify, while others are making the case that inflation is in the process of peaking.\nFor his part, Powell has been viewed by supporters within the administration as a steady hand, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources, describing him as helping \"restore bipartisan support for the central bank one decade after its reputation was badly bruised by the 2008 financial crisis.\"\n\"I have full confidence after their trial by fire over the last 20 months that Chair Powell and Dr. Brainard will provide the strong leadership our country needs,\" Biden said in a statement.\nThe Senate is expected to confirm Powell, 68, before his first term expires in February.\nThe Journal report said that putting Brainard as the Fed No. 2 represents a compromise for Biden with progressives in his party who had criticized Powell. Indeed, Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, accused Powell of watering down financial safeguards put in place after the panic of 2008 and called him a \"dangerous man.\"\nRyan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, Powell's renomination represents \"one less worry now,\" for markets participants.\nJeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investments at Thornburg Investment Management, said that \"with elevating inflation concerns on just about everyone's mind, Brainard would have been more difficult for the market to digest as chair.\"\n\"Her appointment to vice chair offers Democrats a ballast to Powell and a likely regulatory win,\" he wrote, in emailed remarks.\nBiden will still oversee three other nominations for the Fed, including a replacement for Federal Reserve Gov. Randal Quarles, after a number of members announcement early retirements. Quarles said that he would resign at the end of December.\nMeanwhile, Powell's pick is likely to be a positive for digital assets like bitcoin , which the central banker has said that he would not move to restrict. The Fed also has been working on its own central bank digital currency, or CBDC.\nBank stocks also were climbing reports, MarketWatch's Steve Gelsi. He notes that Brainard's name had come up as someone who might take bank regulator to replace the position being vacated by Trump nominee Quarles. The position could be vacated for some time, with potential candidates including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, former Fed Gov. Sarah Bloom Raskin and acting comptroller of the currency Michael Hsu in the mix.\nThe financial sectors rose 1.4% on Monday, among the best performing among the S&P 500's 11 sectors on Monday. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF rose 1.3%, while the Invesco KBW Bank ETF rose 1.8%, as Treasury yields climbed on the session.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"XLF":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879163814,"gmtCreate":1636691381488,"gmtModify":1636691381695,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569971237956537","idStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879163814","repostId":"1104158261","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867622136,"gmtCreate":1633257797210,"gmtModify":1633257797473,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569971237956537","idStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867622136","repostId":"2172964018","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":831702716,"gmtCreate":1629345832335,"gmtModify":1633685506973,"author":{"id":"3569971237956537","authorId":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569971237956537","idStr":"3569971237956537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831702716","repostId":"1118856541","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118856541","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629345442,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118856541?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Seeing Surging China iPhone Demand, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称苹果看到中国iPhone需求激增</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118856541","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple is seeing huge demand for iPhones in China, a positive sign as the company heads into the expe","content":"<p>Apple is seeing huge demand for iPhones in China, a positive sign as the company heads into the expected launch of a new version of its flagship product sometime in September.</p><p><blockquote>苹果看到了中国对iPhone的巨大需求，这是一个积极的迹象，因为该公司预计将于9月某个时候推出其旗舰产品的新版本。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty writes that based on disclosures from China’s Academy for Information and Communications Technology, she estimates Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) iPhone shipments in China in July were up 79% on a year-over-year basis, while China’s own handset vendors saw just a 27% increase over the same period. She also&nbsp;estimates that Apple grew its share of the installed base of smartphones in China by 90 basis points in the latest month to 20.7%, a 27-month high. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师Katy Huberty在一份研究报告中写道，根据中国信息通信研究院的披露，她估计苹果（股票代码：AAPL）7月份在中国的iPhone出货量同比增长79%，而同期中国自己的手机供应商仅增长了27%。她还估计，最近一个月，苹果在中国智能手机装机量中的份额增长了90个基点，达到20.7%，创27个月来新高。（一个基点是百分之一。）</blockquote></p><p> Huberty estimates that both&nbsp;Samsung Electronics&nbsp;and Huawei Technologies lost market share in China in the latest month, with small market-share gains for the domestic phone makers Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂估计，三星电子和华为技术公司最近一个月在中国的市场份额都有所下降，而国内手机制造商Oppo、Vivo和小米的市场份额略有增长。</blockquote></p><p> She says that the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro Max are the most popular models in China, but that iPhone 11 sales remain “resilient.”</p><p><blockquote>她表示，iPhone 12和iPhone 12 Pro Max是中国最受欢迎的机型，但iPhone 11的销售仍然“有弹性”。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe these data points support our view that the iPhone can see continued shipment strength after the launch of the new iPhone 13 model” this fall, she writes.</p><p><blockquote>她写道，“我们相信这些数据点支持了我们的观点，即在今年秋天推出新款iPhone 13机型后，iPhone的出货量将持续强劲”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Seeing Surging China iPhone Demand, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称苹果看到中国iPhone需求激增</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Seeing Surging China iPhone Demand, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称苹果看到中国iPhone需求激增</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple is seeing huge demand for iPhones in China, a positive sign as the company heads into the expected launch of a new version of its flagship product sometime in September.</p><p><blockquote>苹果看到了中国对iPhone的巨大需求，这是一个积极的迹象，因为该公司预计将于9月某个时候推出其旗舰产品的新版本。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty writes that based on disclosures from China’s Academy for Information and Communications Technology, she estimates Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) iPhone shipments in China in July were up 79% on a year-over-year basis, while China’s own handset vendors saw just a 27% increase over the same period. She also&nbsp;estimates that Apple grew its share of the installed base of smartphones in China by 90 basis points in the latest month to 20.7%, a 27-month high. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师Katy Huberty在一份研究报告中写道，根据中国信息通信研究院的披露，她估计苹果（股票代码：AAPL）7月份在中国的iPhone出货量同比增长79%，而同期中国自己的手机供应商仅增长了27%。她还估计，最近一个月，苹果在中国智能手机装机量中的份额增长了90个基点，达到20.7%，创27个月来新高。（一个基点是百分之一。）</blockquote></p><p> Huberty estimates that both&nbsp;Samsung Electronics&nbsp;and Huawei Technologies lost market share in China in the latest month, with small market-share gains for the domestic phone makers Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂估计，三星电子和华为技术公司最近一个月在中国的市场份额都有所下降，而国内手机制造商Oppo、Vivo和小米的市场份额略有增长。</blockquote></p><p> She says that the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro Max are the most popular models in China, but that iPhone 11 sales remain “resilient.”</p><p><blockquote>她表示，iPhone 12和iPhone 12 Pro Max是中国最受欢迎的机型，但iPhone 11的销售仍然“有弹性”。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe these data points support our view that the iPhone can see continued shipment strength after the launch of the new iPhone 13 model” this fall, she writes.</p><p><blockquote>她写道，“我们相信这些数据点支持了我们的观点，即在今年秋天推出新款iPhone 13机型后，iPhone的出货量将持续强劲”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-seeing-surging-china-iphone-demand-analyst-says-51629302575?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-seeing-surging-china-iphone-demand-analyst-says-51629302575?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118856541","content_text":"Apple is seeing huge demand for iPhones in China, a positive sign as the company heads into the expected launch of a new version of its flagship product sometime in September.\nIn a research note, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty writes that based on disclosures from China’s Academy for Information and Communications Technology, she estimates Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) iPhone shipments in China in July were up 79% on a year-over-year basis, while China’s own handset vendors saw just a 27% increase over the same period. She also estimates that Apple grew its share of the installed base of smartphones in China by 90 basis points in the latest month to 20.7%, a 27-month high. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)\nHuberty estimates that both Samsung Electronics and Huawei Technologies lost market share in China in the latest month, with small market-share gains for the domestic phone makers Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi.\nShe says that the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro Max are the most popular models in China, but that iPhone 11 sales remain “resilient.”\n“We believe these data points support our view that the iPhone can see continued shipment strength after the launch of the new iPhone 13 model” this fall, she writes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}