茁壮的小脑虎的个人主页 - 老虎社区

茁壮的小脑虎

茁壮的小脑虎

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IP属地：江苏

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7主题

0勋章

茁壮的小脑虎

2021-05-26

$宝峰时尚(01121)$赶紧跌些，我好买点

茁壮的小脑虎

2021-05-24

$宝峰时尚(01121)$庄家在出货，一边买一边卖，在缓慢出货，赶快逃大家。控盘出货呢在。

茁壮的小脑虎

2021-05-04

除了分析报告这样的内容少看

抱歉，原内容已删除

茁壮的小脑虎

2021-02-20

$RLX科技(RLX)$[流泪]

茁壮的小脑虎

2021-02-12

老虎的文章很多都有个通病，外行人乍一看觉得写的很好，内行人看其实觉得很浅陋。不过通过几天研究成这样着实也不错了。

抱歉，原内容已删除

茁壮的小脑虎

2021-01-29

虽然有些部分带有个人主义情绪色彩但大体上事情是这样的

抱歉，原内容已删除

茁壮的小脑虎

2021-01-29

这篇文章写的好！

抱歉，原内容已删除

茁壮的小脑虎

2021-01-29

干的漂亮

抱歉，原内容已删除

茁壮的小脑虎

2021-01-29

$腾讯控股(00700)$刚有人违规操作87万股，盘前

茁壮的小脑虎

2021-01-27

看了这篇文章我觉得，市面上存在认知偏见的人和知识盲区的人不少。

快手的本质，是一家弱势媒体

茁壮的小脑虎

2021-01-25

墙头草，马后炮又来了！

抱歉，原内容已删除

茁壮的小脑虎

2021-01-19

$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$这个股票，盘前涨盘中跌，以此为证

茁壮的小脑虎

2020-12-24

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$涨跌随缘。就1股。

茁壮的小脑虎

2020-12-17

$一起教育科技(YQ)$一起教育，顾名思义一起被教育，这名字都说了，你们还买。你看聪明的我就没买[得意]

茁壮的小脑虎

2020-12-17

$二倍做多白银ETF(ProShares)(AGQ)$我老婆是真爱

茁壮的小脑虎

2020-12-17

$苹果(AAPL)$再也不相信爱情了

茁壮的小脑虎

2020-12-17

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$还是老虎送的这个最香

茁壮的小脑虎

2020-12-16

$一起教育科技(YQ)$我前几天说了，涨死也不买，这股票不正常，估计嘲讽我的人这几天老实了，现在这个价格可以买一点倒是可以。不可全仓

茁壮的小脑虎

2020-12-09

$一起教育科技(YQ)$我还是不会买，哈哈哈，就是不买，涨破天我也不会买。

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>刚有人违规操作87万股，盘前","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$刚有人违规操作87万股，盘前","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318411213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313293406,"gmtCreate":1611717795605,"gmtModify":1703752598964,"author":{"id":"3569897880078901","authorId":"3569897880078901","name":"茁壮的小脑虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0e6e92011ed6e311670ad59ac7b769","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看了这篇文章我觉得，市面上存在认知偏见的人和知识盲区的人不少。","listText":"看了这篇文章我觉得，市面上存在认知偏见的人和知识盲区的人不少。","text":"看了这篇文章我觉得，市面上存在认知偏见的人和知识盲区的人不少。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313293406","repostId":"2106703414","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2106703414","pubTimestamp":1611711931,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2106703414?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-27 09:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"快手的本质，是一家弱势媒体","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2106703414","media":"虎嗅","summary":"港交所即将敲锣打鼓迎来一个大客户——\n快手科技已经发布了正式通告，称将全球发售3.65亿股，其中香港发售913.05万股，国际发售3.56亿股，指示性发售价格范围在每股105～115港元之间，对应股份","content":"<p>港交所即将敲锣打鼓迎来一个大客户——</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手科技</a>已经发布了正式通告，称将全球发售3.65亿股，其中香港发售913.05万股，国际发售3.56亿股，指示性发售价格范围在每股105～115港元之间，对应股份市值分别为4314亿港元和4724亿港元。</p>\n<p>抢跑<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>，成为“短视频第一股”，快手的认购异常火爆。根据每日经济新闻的报道，基于226亿港元的保证金贷款额计算，快手面向散户的股份目前已获20倍超额认购。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>新闻《潜望》也报道过，在过去这70多天，各方投资人四处寻找可能与快手CEO宿华等核心管理层最近的关系，以拿到额度进行贩卖。</p>\n<p>不过通常来讲，企业在香港上市公开发售的配比往往是10%，而算下来快手这番在香港只发售2.5%的比例，操作引人遐想。</p>\n<p>前有同样集夸赞和指责、增长和亏损于一身的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>，为快手营造了一个开阔的估值空间，（这也是快手一直强调电商的原因之一），就在这个过程中，快手获得了3亿多日活、7.69亿月活，GMV一年翻了5倍多......</p>\n<p>只是眼前的光是真的光明吗？妙投认为，快手是2020年以来打新风险最高的标的。</p>\n<p>一、增长透支？</p>\n<p>整体来看，目前快手的基本面有触顶的风险。</p>\n<p><b>快手目前的主要收入来自直播打赏</b><b>（销售虚拟物品）</b><b>、线上广告营销以及电商、网络游戏等业务。</b>招股书显示，2017年、2018年、2019年，快手的营收从人民币83亿元增值391亿元，截至2020年9月30日，快手前三季度的营收为407亿元；截至2020年11月份，该数据为525亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595a0fc0fb3a950b2c751475cf167a2a\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来自快手招股书</p>\n<p>快手真正的商业化始于2018年，相应的，彼时的同比增速高达143.4%。不过此后，快手的整体增速呈现降低的趋势，2019年同比增速降至92.7%，2020年前三季度同比增速降至49%。</p>\n<p>快手的日活也有走低的趋势。2017年、2018年以及2019年的平均日活用户分别为0.67亿、1.17亿、1.76亿。2020年，曾经在2020年春晚达到高峰的日活也渐渐落了下来。</p>\n<p>当然，对用户基数本身已经比较大的快手而言，增速降低是预期之中，2020年，快手通过广告和营销投入等手段进行了拉<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5CN.SI\">新和</a>维护，招股书显示，截至2020年6月30日，快手的平均日活拉升至2.58亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8b208a533e1e4c8b194dc3c157b088\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来自快手招股书</p>\n<p>但是，抢救日活增速、拉拢用户的代价，是走高的费用和由盈转亏的严酷现实。</p>\n<p>2019年和2020年前三季度，快手的毛利率分别为34.7%和37.6%，截至2020年11月，快手的毛利率达到了近40%，但此刻的快手颇有“流血上市”的意味，并且最新数据显示，截至2020年11月，快手的经营性亏损高达94亿元。</p>\n<p>招股书显示，2017年～2019年，及2020年前三季度，快手净亏损分别为200.45亿元、124.29亿元、196.52亿元及973.71亿元，即使撇除以股份为基础的薪酬开支及可转换可赎回优先股的公允价值变动之后，2020年前三季度经调整净亏损为72.4亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a47d901eed3cdd5af6b35ab63aab84c\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来自快手招股书</p>\n<p>快手解释称出现大规模亏损的原因是，2020年在大数据中心建设、研发、人才引进与储备、市场推广等方面做了很多主动和长期的资本投入。招股书显示，其中主要的开销还是在营销费用，2020年前三季度，快手的市场营销费用从2019年同期的56亿元增至198亿元，费用率由20.5%骤升至48.8%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4c64f6aaaa1967d85ba5152841cbf2b\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来自快手招股书</p>\n<p><b>规模增速已经开始走低，似乎没撑起市场的关注度和期待，这让人不由怀疑快手的增长是否存在透支的风险。</b></p>\n<p>不过当然，在快手这头独角兽朝前狂奔的时候，即使是下行的曲线，也会被资本市场当作冲向天际之前的俯冲。</p>\n<p>二、快手不是电商公司</p>\n<p>快手招股书出乎所有人的意料，快手存在感如此强的电商，原来是一个雷声大雨点小的业务。</p>\n<p>2020年前三季度快手总收入达407亿元人民币，其中直播收入253亿元，线上营销服务收入133亿元，包括电商、网络游戏、在线知识分享等在内的其他服务业务收入只有20亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b4abf5ee560171a6c2e1cf2af8c8e7\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来自快手招股书</p>\n<p>天平还在倾斜。随着商业化和电商的启动，快手已经从单纯的短视频/直播平台迈进了商业化的阶段，乃至未来的目标是要建成一个完整的商业生态，而电商是通往终极形态发展的必经之路，但路漫漫其修远兮。</p>\n<p>快手更新的招股书数据显示，截至2020年11月30日，快手电商GMV达到3326亿元人民币，已经超过2019年全年GMV的5倍。2020年以来，快手电商GMV实现第一个1000亿用了6个月，第二个1000亿仅用了3个月，第三个1000亿只用了两个月就已经实现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ac7b3188302fdd90efce5ac4015e35\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>原则上讲，领先于同类产品的GMV水平，代表着快手在电商方面的探索成果，也继而代表着平台商业生态发展的想象空间，这正是快手能获得现有关注度和估值的重要条件之一。</p>\n<p>不过妙投认为，GMV并不能完全代表快手的实际电商业务水平，结合另一个指标，货币化率（收入/GMV，代表电商变现能力）更能真实地体现其电商变现能力——快手的货币化率远低于主流电商平台的平均水平。</p>\n<p>招股书显示，公司2020上半年，电商GMV达1096亿元，平均复购率达60%以上，货币化率为0.66%。即使假设快手的其他收入（包括电商、游戏、在校教育）全都来自于电商业务，2019年和2020H1的货币化率也仅仅为0.44%和0.74%，而同期阿里、京东和拼多多都在3%以上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0959c970a3141e1b77788c5b381b4f\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来自于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601901\">方正证券</a>和各公司财务数据</p>\n<p>这代表着，快手还处在为了维持规模对创作者进行大量返点、返佣的阶段，GMV还难以落袋为安。</p>\n<p>同时，快手与其头部主播们长久的风格，也终于自行反噬了其在电商方面的品牌合作与选品空间。海豚投研也有分析称：从快手与抖音的单品带货均价来看，单品均价较高的优质品牌商，一般优先选择抖音主播进行带货，快手主播存在弱势，同时考虑到直播带货中间链条太长，主播抽佣太高（通常在20%～30%左右），因此其当前土味属性下直播带货最终的货品还是归于低成本的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>与工厂、白牌货，和库存尾货。</p>\n<p>更何况，<b>快手目前还只是直播带货而非真正“电商”，对眼下的快手来说，其秀场逻辑优势仍然要大于电商逻辑。</b>电商乃至整个商业生态牵扯供应链、用户、物流、支付等方方面面的强大管控能力，从这方面看，快手离一个商业生态还非常遥远，与阿里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>们相比，快手还谈不上有优势，更谈不上是护城河。</p>\n<p>三、下沉还是不下沉，这是个问题</p>\n<p>同为“秀场”，从产品呈现方式和内容以及创作者构成上来看，“土味”快手早已经越来越像抖音了。2020年9月，快手经过改版，视频的展示形式从单屏双列改到了大屏单列滑动，还向抖音学习了高清视频、个性化推荐等等。在创作者端，快手还引入了MCN机构、公会体系玩法，并频繁和偶像明星合作......如今快手和抖音的内容和体验开始趋同，差异化越来越小。&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 很显然，快手想从下沉中走出，同时摆脱平台管控能力不足，容易受到六大家族舆论影响和收入牵制的痛点。<b>快手不想承认辛巴们是快手的符号，这是因为他们已经成为快手的痛点。</b></p>\n<p>就在快手递交上市材料的时候，正是辛巴假燕窝事件甚嚣尘上的时候，在路演中，快手高层就曾回应称，“辛巴等大主播占快手电商销售额约10%，就12月的数据来说，剔除掉辛巴等大主播的销售部分，快手整体的销售总额是在增长的”。</p>\n<p>妙投认为，这些话术并没有足够的说服力来为快手“洗白”。</p>\n<p>首先，快手和淘宝直播有同一个特点，就是一度依赖头部主播（快手家族式主播）。根据海豚投研数据，2019年，辛巴个人带货GMV接近快手整体GMV的1/3。2020年11月辛巴家族的直播电商GMV占快手前10名主播带货总量的65%，快手直播的头部效应仍然未有较大改善。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">海通证券</a>报告也有数据显示，2020年10月，辛巴家族贡献GMV占快手TOP 30主播合计GMV高达约50%。</p>\n<p>退一步讲，如果GMV的占比不够，那么<b>从流量端来看，快手平台家族式主播流量聚合现象更为明显，</b>CBN Data数据显示，六大家族粉丝总量超过8亿，其中辛巴家族成员粉丝2.1亿，散打哥家族1.28亿。辛巴个人快手账号的粉丝数已经高达7000多万，单场直播交易额曾经高达10亿元。</p>\n<p>这些家族带来的话讨论度以及其产生的影响力，已经给了人们辛巴约等于快手电商的即视感，这种绑定中短期内已经没有办法根除。更何况，这样大的流量掌握在法律意识淡薄、江湖气极重的“家族势力”手中，无疑增加了快手的法律风险和对用户体验的挑战。</p>\n<p>如今的辛巴们就是快手的调性天花板，更何况，“辛巴们”代表不了完全的下沉市场，辛巴现象只是消费、利用了下沉市场用户的一场表演。</p>\n<p>由此，快手的另一个困境就在于——一边，快手想要走出这场下沉噱头，但快手和辛巴们还在互相成就，“顶格”处罚不过就是将辛巴的账号封禁了60天；另一边，快手还要迎合非下沉市场文化，以找到未来更大的增量。</p>\n<p>四、成长性和风险并存</p>\n<p>快手既然不是电商公司，它到底是谁？</p>\n<p>快手收入结构中大头是直播打赏收入，快手已经是全球范围内以虚拟礼物打赏流水及直播平均月付费用户计最大的直播平台。不过<b>直播打赏收入的占比正在降低，相反广告收入增势很快，已经成为快手的第二成长曲线。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b4abf5ee560171a6c2e1cf2af8c8e7\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>广告是主流媒体最主要的变现方式，相比电商，快手可能更有希望成为一个“媒体”。但是和其一号竞争对手，抖音的广告业务相比，还不在同一个水平线——快手的商业化也初步成型、尚在早期，因此也只是一个“弱媒体”。</p>\n<p>2019年，快手的营销广告收入为74亿元，但根据据腾讯新闻《潜望》报道，抖音2019年广告营收为600亿元。并且，快手的人均广告收入还有较大的增长空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5873dc28e5b8dd7046ee16277da2737\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"50\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来自华创证券、招股书</p>\n<p>快手抢跑上市，但抖音的竞争优势没有被动摇，抖音也推出了极速版本，以补上自己在下沉市场的短板。快手已然面对用户增长和留存的风险，抖快将在不远的未来进行高渗透率下的存量竞争，持续巷战。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8864621d82b7d8a6b1860ac01cf3b2b9\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>截图来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601198\">东兴证券</a>报告</p>\n<p>与此同时，他们还面临一个共同的竞争对手，那就是微信视频号。2020年的6月份，微信官方宣布视频号日活就已经突破两亿。更何况，视频号所依托的微信本身就是一个有着10亿DAU的流量“集散地”，有着天生的私域流量、社交/社群优势。</p>\n<p>另外，短期来看，热度不减的直播在未来将面临越来越严的内容管控。2020年11月12日，广电总局发出《关于加强网络秀场直播和电商直播管理的通知》，列明网络秀场直播或电商直播平台的登记规定及直播业务有关实名登记、用户虚拟打赏消费限额、未成年用户虚拟打赏限制、直播审核人员资格、内容标签及其他方面的规定。</p>\n<p>快手在更新的招股书中也严明该风险，称用户虚拟打赏消费限额最终可能对快手的虚拟打赏收入及经营业绩造成负面影响。这也加快了快手对商业化进展的需求。</p>\n<p>总结来看，<b>其一，快手的基本面增长面临短期瓶颈；其二，其营造出的电商能力其实也还停留在“画饼”的阶段，难以在中短期内真正成为一家电商公司；其三，快手也非强势媒体属性。长此以往，快手还没有建立一个十分稳定的收入预期。</b></p>\n<p>市场对快手的狂热有增无减，投资人们赌的就是它还未完全发掘的增长可能性，但是<b>只靠眼下这些“老铁”，如今的风光就会转化为未来的高风险。</b>在满足市场的期待之前，快手也需要为自己找到一个答案。</p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>快手的本质，是一家弱势媒体</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n快手的本质，是一家弱势媒体\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-27 09:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/406750.html><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>港交所即将敲锣打鼓迎来一个大客户——\n快手科技已经发布了正式通告，称将全球发售3.65亿股，其中香港发售913.05万股，国际发售3.56亿股，指示性发售价格范围在每股105～115港元之间，对应股份市值分别为4314亿港元和4724亿港元。\n抢跑抖音，成为“短视频第一股”，快手的认购异常火爆。根据每日经济新闻的报道，基于226亿港元的保证金贷款额计算，快手面向散户的股份目前已获20倍超额认购。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/406750.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de6bf3e76ac4f29667d3985c7fdbbc4f","relate_stocks":{"01024":"快手-W"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/406750.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2106703414","content_text":"港交所即将敲锣打鼓迎来一个大客户——\n快手科技已经发布了正式通告，称将全球发售3.65亿股，其中香港发售913.05万股，国际发售3.56亿股，指示性发售价格范围在每股105～115港元之间，对应股份市值分别为4314亿港元和4724亿港元。\n抢跑抖音，成为“短视频第一股”，快手的认购异常火爆。根据每日经济新闻的报道，基于226亿港元的保证金贷款额计算，快手面向散户的股份目前已获20倍超额认购。腾讯新闻《潜望》也报道过，在过去这70多天，各方投资人四处寻找可能与快手CEO宿华等核心管理层最近的关系，以拿到额度进行贩卖。\n不过通常来讲，企业在香港上市公开发售的配比往往是10%，而算下来快手这番在香港只发售2.5%的比例，操作引人遐想。\n前有同样集夸赞和指责、增长和亏损于一身的拼多多，为快手营造了一个开阔的估值空间，（这也是快手一直强调电商的原因之一），就在这个过程中，快手获得了3亿多日活、7.69亿月活，GMV一年翻了5倍多......\n只是眼前的光是真的光明吗？妙投认为，快手是2020年以来打新风险最高的标的。\n一、增长透支？\n整体来看，目前快手的基本面有触顶的风险。\n快手目前的主要收入来自直播打赏（销售虚拟物品）、线上广告营销以及电商、网络游戏等业务。招股书显示，2017年、2018年、2019年，快手的营收从人民币83亿元增值391亿元，截至2020年9月30日，快手前三季度的营收为407亿元；截至2020年11月份，该数据为525亿元。\n\n数据来自快手招股书\n快手真正的商业化始于2018年，相应的，彼时的同比增速高达143.4%。不过此后，快手的整体增速呈现降低的趋势，2019年同比增速降至92.7%，2020年前三季度同比增速降至49%。\n快手的日活也有走低的趋势。2017年、2018年以及2019年的平均日活用户分别为0.67亿、1.17亿、1.76亿。2020年，曾经在2020年春晚达到高峰的日活也渐渐落了下来。\n当然，对用户基数本身已经比较大的快手而言，增速降低是预期之中，2020年，快手通过广告和营销投入等手段进行了拉新和维护，招股书显示，截至2020年6月30日，快手的平均日活拉升至2.58亿。\n\n数据来自快手招股书\n但是，抢救日活增速、拉拢用户的代价，是走高的费用和由盈转亏的严酷现实。\n2019年和2020年前三季度，快手的毛利率分别为34.7%和37.6%，截至2020年11月，快手的毛利率达到了近40%，但此刻的快手颇有“流血上市”的意味，并且最新数据显示，截至2020年11月，快手的经营性亏损高达94亿元。\n招股书显示，2017年～2019年，及2020年前三季度，快手净亏损分别为200.45亿元、124.29亿元、196.52亿元及973.71亿元，即使撇除以股份为基础的薪酬开支及可转换可赎回优先股的公允价值变动之后，2020年前三季度经调整净亏损为72.4亿元。\n\n数据来自快手招股书\n快手解释称出现大规模亏损的原因是，2020年在大数据中心建设、研发、人才引进与储备、市场推广等方面做了很多主动和长期的资本投入。招股书显示，其中主要的开销还是在营销费用，2020年前三季度，快手的市场营销费用从2019年同期的56亿元增至198亿元，费用率由20.5%骤升至48.8%。\n\n数据来自快手招股书\n规模增速已经开始走低，似乎没撑起市场的关注度和期待，这让人不由怀疑快手的增长是否存在透支的风险。\n不过当然，在快手这头独角兽朝前狂奔的时候，即使是下行的曲线，也会被资本市场当作冲向天际之前的俯冲。\n二、快手不是电商公司\n快手招股书出乎所有人的意料，快手存在感如此强的电商，原来是一个雷声大雨点小的业务。\n2020年前三季度快手总收入达407亿元人民币，其中直播收入253亿元，线上营销服务收入133亿元，包括电商、网络游戏、在线知识分享等在内的其他服务业务收入只有20亿元。\n\n数据来自快手招股书\n天平还在倾斜。随着商业化和电商的启动，快手已经从单纯的短视频/直播平台迈进了商业化的阶段，乃至未来的目标是要建成一个完整的商业生态，而电商是通往终极形态发展的必经之路，但路漫漫其修远兮。\n快手更新的招股书数据显示，截至2020年11月30日，快手电商GMV达到3326亿元人民币，已经超过2019年全年GMV的5倍。2020年以来，快手电商GMV实现第一个1000亿用了6个月，第二个1000亿仅用了3个月，第三个1000亿只用了两个月就已经实现。\n\n原则上讲，领先于同类产品的GMV水平，代表着快手在电商方面的探索成果，也继而代表着平台商业生态发展的想象空间，这正是快手能获得现有关注度和估值的重要条件之一。\n不过妙投认为，GMV并不能完全代表快手的实际电商业务水平，结合另一个指标，货币化率（收入/GMV，代表电商变现能力）更能真实地体现其电商变现能力——快手的货币化率远低于主流电商平台的平均水平。\n招股书显示，公司2020上半年，电商GMV达1096亿元，平均复购率达60%以上，货币化率为0.66%。即使假设快手的其他收入（包括电商、游戏、在校教育）全都来自于电商业务，2019年和2020H1的货币化率也仅仅为0.44%和0.74%，而同期阿里、京东和拼多多都在3%以上。\n\n数据来自于方正证券和各公司财务数据\n这代表着，快手还处在为了维持规模对创作者进行大量返点、返佣的阶段，GMV还难以落袋为安。\n同时，快手与其头部主播们长久的风格，也终于自行反噬了其在电商方面的品牌合作与选品空间。海豚投研也有分析称：从快手与抖音的单品带货均价来看，单品均价较高的优质品牌商，一般优先选择抖音主播进行带货，快手主播存在弱势，同时考虑到直播带货中间链条太长，主播抽佣太高（通常在20%～30%左右），因此其当前土味属性下直播带货最终的货品还是归于低成本的农产品与工厂、白牌货，和库存尾货。\n更何况，快手目前还只是直播带货而非真正“电商”，对眼下的快手来说，其秀场逻辑优势仍然要大于电商逻辑。电商乃至整个商业生态牵扯供应链、用户、物流、支付等方方面面的强大管控能力，从这方面看，快手离一个商业生态还非常遥远，与阿里京东们相比，快手还谈不上有优势，更谈不上是护城河。\n三、下沉还是不下沉，这是个问题\n同为“秀场”，从产品呈现方式和内容以及创作者构成上来看，“土味”快手早已经越来越像抖音了。2020年9月，快手经过改版，视频的展示形式从单屏双列改到了大屏单列滑动，还向抖音学习了高清视频、个性化推荐等等。在创作者端，快手还引入了MCN机构、公会体系玩法，并频繁和偶像明星合作......如今快手和抖音的内容和体验开始趋同，差异化越来越小。                                                                                                                                                                                                                        很显然，快手想从下沉中走出，同时摆脱平台管控能力不足，容易受到六大家族舆论影响和收入牵制的痛点。快手不想承认辛巴们是快手的符号，这是因为他们已经成为快手的痛点。\n就在快手递交上市材料的时候，正是辛巴假燕窝事件甚嚣尘上的时候，在路演中，快手高层就曾回应称，“辛巴等大主播占快手电商销售额约10%，就12月的数据来说，剔除掉辛巴等大主播的销售部分，快手整体的销售总额是在增长的”。\n妙投认为，这些话术并没有足够的说服力来为快手“洗白”。\n首先，快手和淘宝直播有同一个特点，就是一度依赖头部主播（快手家族式主播）。根据海豚投研数据，2019年，辛巴个人带货GMV接近快手整体GMV的1/3。2020年11月辛巴家族的直播电商GMV占快手前10名主播带货总量的65%，快手直播的头部效应仍然未有较大改善。海通证券报告也有数据显示，2020年10月，辛巴家族贡献GMV占快手TOP 30主播合计GMV高达约50%。\n退一步讲，如果GMV的占比不够，那么从流量端来看，快手平台家族式主播流量聚合现象更为明显，CBN Data数据显示，六大家族粉丝总量超过8亿，其中辛巴家族成员粉丝2.1亿，散打哥家族1.28亿。辛巴个人快手账号的粉丝数已经高达7000多万，单场直播交易额曾经高达10亿元。\n这些家族带来的话讨论度以及其产生的影响力，已经给了人们辛巴约等于快手电商的即视感，这种绑定中短期内已经没有办法根除。更何况，这样大的流量掌握在法律意识淡薄、江湖气极重的“家族势力”手中，无疑增加了快手的法律风险和对用户体验的挑战。\n如今的辛巴们就是快手的调性天花板，更何况，“辛巴们”代表不了完全的下沉市场，辛巴现象只是消费、利用了下沉市场用户的一场表演。\n由此，快手的另一个困境就在于——一边，快手想要走出这场下沉噱头，但快手和辛巴们还在互相成就，“顶格”处罚不过就是将辛巴的账号封禁了60天；另一边，快手还要迎合非下沉市场文化，以找到未来更大的增量。\n四、成长性和风险并存\n快手既然不是电商公司，它到底是谁？\n快手收入结构中大头是直播打赏收入，快手已经是全球范围内以虚拟礼物打赏流水及直播平均月付费用户计最大的直播平台。不过直播打赏收入的占比正在降低，相反广告收入增势很快，已经成为快手的第二成长曲线。\n\n广告是主流媒体最主要的变现方式，相比电商，快手可能更有希望成为一个“媒体”。但是和其一号竞争对手，抖音的广告业务相比，还不在同一个水平线——快手的商业化也初步成型、尚在早期，因此也只是一个“弱媒体”。\n2019年，快手的营销广告收入为74亿元，但根据据腾讯新闻《潜望》报道，抖音2019年广告营收为600亿元。并且，快手的人均广告收入还有较大的增长空间。\n\n数据来自华创证券、招股书\n快手抢跑上市，但抖音的竞争优势没有被动摇，抖音也推出了极速版本，以补上自己在下沉市场的短板。快手已然面对用户增长和留存的风险，抖快将在不远的未来进行高渗透率下的存量竞争，持续巷战。\n\n截图来自东兴证券报告\n与此同时，他们还面临一个共同的竞争对手，那就是微信视频号。2020年的6月份，微信官方宣布视频号日活就已经突破两亿。更何况，视频号所依托的微信本身就是一个有着10亿DAU的流量“集散地”，有着天生的私域流量、社交/社群优势。\n另外，短期来看，热度不减的直播在未来将面临越来越严的内容管控。2020年11月12日，广电总局发出《关于加强网络秀场直播和电商直播管理的通知》，列明网络秀场直播或电商直播平台的登记规定及直播业务有关实名登记、用户虚拟打赏消费限额、未成年用户虚拟打赏限制、直播审核人员资格、内容标签及其他方面的规定。\n快手在更新的招股书中也严明该风险，称用户虚拟打赏消费限额最终可能对快手的虚拟打赏收入及经营业绩造成负面影响。这也加快了快手对商业化进展的需求。\n总结来看，其一，快手的基本面增长面临短期瓶颈；其二，其营造出的电商能力其实也还停留在“画饼”的阶段，难以在中短期内真正成为一家电商公司；其三，快手也非强势媒体属性。长此以往，快手还没有建立一个十分稳定的收入预期。\n市场对快手的狂热有增无减，投资人们赌的就是它还未完全发掘的增长可能性，但是只靠眼下这些“老铁”，如今的风光就会转化为未来的高风险。在满足市场的期待之前，快手也需要为自己找到一个答案。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319135297,"gmtCreate":1611548427119,"gmtModify":1703750815396,"author":{"id":"3569897880078901","authorId":"3569897880078901","name":"茁壮的小脑虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0e6e92011ed6e311670ad59ac7b769","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"墙头草，马后炮又来了！","listText":"墙头草，马后炮又来了！","text":"墙头草，马后炮又来了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319135297","repostId":"2106411298","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":337986879,"gmtCreate":1611051777391,"gmtModify":1703747663113,"author":{"id":"3569897880078901","authorId":"3569897880078901","name":"茁壮的小脑虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0e6e92011ed6e311670ad59ac7b769","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202101251787812563.html><strong>钛媒体</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银近日发表报告表示，上调腾讯目标价，自700港元上调至830港元，相当预测今明两年市盈率各41倍及34倍，维持“买入”评级。该行指，腾讯手机游戏趋势强劲，广告及云端业务亦见发展机会，管理层亦或考虑发展金融科技产品，相信以上因素可推动腾讯于末来两年收入增长约25%及近30%的EBIT增长。该行指，相信反垄断相关监管对腾讯影响不大，料串流及金融科技相关监管则或收紧。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202101251787812563.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed7ef7d1b9da30ca68a0ddeac63f4a0e","relate_stocks":{"UBS":"瑞银","00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202101251787812563.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2106411298","content_text":"瑞银近日发表报告表示，上调腾讯目标价，自700港元上调至830港元，相当预测今明两年市盈率各41倍及34倍，维持“买入”评级。该行指，腾讯手机游戏趋势强劲，广告及云端业务亦见发展机会，管理层亦或考虑发展金融科技产品，相信以上因素可推动腾讯于末来两年收入增长约25%及近30%的EBIT增长。该行指，相信反垄断相关监管对腾讯影响不大，料串流及金融科技相关监管则或收紧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387510340,"gmtCreate":1613753654080,"gmtModify":1613753654080,"author":{"id":"3569897880078901","authorId":"3569897880078901","name":"茁壮的小脑虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0e6e92011ed6e311670ad59ac7b769","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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