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2021-12-30

Lol pton

3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能增长5倍</blockquote>

2021-12-16

Just buy gaming crypto

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2021-12-09

Follow them and you lose money

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2021-05-25

Motley fool is a joke

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2021-04-20

I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio

The Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场宽容的时间太长了</blockquote>

2021-04-02

Motley fool? lol

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

2021-03-19

Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients

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2021-03-15

Nio easy

Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更好的购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>

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pton","listText":"Lol pton","text":"Lol pton","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692396363","repostId":"1141552384","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1141552384","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640836019,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1141552384?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 11:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能增长5倍</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141552384","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"If you're ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>If you&#39;re ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can go far in the year ahead. Why beat the market when you can crush the market?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果你准备好在2022年挥杆，你不妨为自己准备一些可以在未来一年走得很远的股票。既然可以碾压市场，为什么还要碾压市场？</body></html></blockquote></p><p><b>Peloton Interactive</b>(NASDAQ:PTON),<b>Voyager Digital</b>(OTC:VYGV.F)and <b>Camping World Holdings</b>(NYSE:CWH)are three growth stocks that I feel will trounce the market in 2022. Let&#39;s go over why I think these investments have the potential for a fivefold increase in the year ahead.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克代码：PTON），<b>航海家数字</b>（OTC：VYGV.F）和<b>露营世界控股</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CWH）是我认为将在 2022 年战胜市场的三只成长型股票。让我们回顾一下为什么我认为这些投资在未来一年有可能增长五倍。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b921271c793dcac0a4cef0e9c93f8376\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: PELOTON INTERACTIVE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：PELOTON互动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>1. Peloton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 排队</b></blockquote></p><p>You don&#39;t need to be a math major to figure out what it would take for Peloton to appreciate fivefold in 2022. The stock has fallen nearly 80% through Tuesday&#39;s close since peaking 11 months ago. All it has to do is take out its old all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要是数学专业的学生就能弄清楚Peloton需要什么才能在2022年升值五倍。自 11 个月前触及峰值以来，截至周二收盘，该股已下跌近 80%。它所要做的就是打破历史新高。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s a tall order for an out-of-favor company, and the premium home-fitness specialist is clearly in the market&#39;s doghouse. It&#39;s been a series of unfortunate events for Peloton. The stock peaked 11 months ago just as pandemic-tackling vaccines hit the market. With fitness centers and spinning-class boutiques reopening, there was less of a need to make a four-figure investment in a home-based proxy for the real thing.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家不受欢迎的公司来说，这是一个很高的要求，而这家优质家庭健身专家显然处于市场的狗窝里。对于Peloton来说，这是一系列不幸的事件。11 个月前，当应对流行病的疫苗上市时，该股达到顶峰。随着健身中心和动感单车精品店的重新开业，人们不再需要在一个基于家庭的真实代理上进行四位数的投资。</blockquote></p><p>Things got worse. It had to recall its treadmill after a few tragic accidents involving young children and pets. Recently the premiere of the <i>Sex in the City</i> spin off <i>And Just Like That</i> killed off a main character after a Peloton workout, even if Peloton did recover from that by quickly turning around a brilliant counter ad.</p><p><blockquote>事情变得更糟了。在发生了几起涉及幼儿和宠物的悲惨事故后，该公司不得不召回跑步机。最近首映的<i>欲望都市</i>分拆<i>就像那样</i>在一次Peloton训练后杀死了一个主角，即使Peloton确实通过迅速扭转一个精彩的反广告从中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p>Financially speaking, Peloton is in a funk. It has now clocked in with consecutive financial reports of sequential declines in total workout sessions and revenue after a couple of years of triple-digit top-line growth. Guidance is also problematic and uninspiring. The stock continued to sell off this month, hitting a new 52-week low on Tuesday. Investors are tax-loss harvesting, and portfolio managers are window dressing.</p><p><blockquote>从财务角度来看，Peloton 陷入了恐慌。在经历了几年三位数的营收增长后，该公司现在连续发布财务报告，显示总锻炼次数和收入连续下降。指导也是有问题的，没有启发性。该股本月持续抛售，周二创下52周新低。投资者正在收获税收损失，而投资组合经理则在装饰橱窗。</blockquote></p><p>But why is no one paying attention to the rapid surge of COVID-19 cases? With a fifth surge picking up steam, we might not be canceling our connected-fitness Peloton subscriptions anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>但为什么没有人关注新冠肺炎病例的迅速激增呢？随着第五次激增的势头增强，我们可能不会很快取消我们的联网健身Peloton订阅。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Voyager Digital</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 航海家数字</b></blockquote></p><p>You won&#39;t find too many publicly traded companies growing faster than Voyager Digital. The cryptocurrency platform saw its organic revenue soar 3,280% in its latest quarter, and that follows growth of 15,122% in its fiscal 2021 that ended in June. These aren&#39;t typos. It surpassed a million total funded accounts last month, and the money&#39;s adding up quickly. Voyager has seen its total assets under management grow from $2.6 billion at the end of June to $4.3 billion at the end of September to just shy of $7 billion by mid-November.</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现太多上市公司的增长速度比 Voyager Digital 更快。该加密货币平台在最近一个季度的有机收入飙升了 3,280%，而在截至 6 月份的 2021 财年，其有机收入增长了 15,122%。这些不是错别字。上个月，它的资金账户总数超过了100万个，而且资金正在迅速增加。Voyager 的管理总资产从 6 月底的 26 亿美元增长到 9 月底的 43 亿美元，到 11 月中旬略低于 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Voyager isn&#39;t a trading exchange itself. It outsources customer orders through a dozen exchanges and market makers. It doesn&#39;t tack on a commission, but Voyager does get a piece of the action if its smart order-routing platform is able to deliver a better price than quoted. The star attraction is that it lets crypto traders earn as much as 12% in annualized interest on their idle tokens and coins.</p><p><blockquote>Voyager 本身并不是交易所。它通过十几个交易所和做市商外包客户订单。它不收取佣金，但如果 Voyager 的智能订单路由平台能够提供比报价更好的价格，它确实可以分一杯羹。明星吸引力在于，它让加密货币交易者从闲置代币和硬币上赚取高达 12% 的年化利息。</blockquote></p><p>Growth will inevitably decelerate now that it has a much larger account base, but analysts also see it becoming profitable this fiscal year. As long as cryptocurrencies remain popular and Voyager keeps striking smart platform-widening deals, the stock has plenty of upside from its current $2.5 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司拥有更大的账户基础，增长将不可避免地放缓，但分析师也认为该公司本财年将实现盈利。只要加密货币仍然受欢迎，并且 Voyager 不断达成明智的平台拓展交易，该股目前 25 亿美元的市值就有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p><b>3. Camping World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.露营世界</b></blockquote></p><p>You can get big growth and a juicy dividend in the same spoonful. Camping World operates a chain of superstores that sell recreational vehicles (RVs) and related essentials. It&#39;s the top dog, and it&#39;s perpetually widening its lead by buying smaller regional players.</p><p><blockquote>你可以同时获得巨大的增长和丰厚的红利。露营世界经营着一家连锁超市，销售休闲车（RV）和相关必需品。它是领头羊，并且通过收购较小的地区参与者，不断扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p>Business started to pick up around May of last year, as folks realized that the pandemic was going to be around for some time and that they needed a way to travel safely over Memorial Day weekend, the upcoming summer season, and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>去年5月左右，生意开始回暖，因为人们意识到疫情将持续一段时间，他们需要一种方法在阵亡将士纪念日周末、即将到来的夏季及以后安全旅行。</blockquote></p><p>Its business continues to roll. Camping World has rattled off five consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, including a 14% gain in its latest report. Sustainable interest in RVs (including from retirees, the affluent, and folks realizing that the future of hybrid workplaces means being able to travel across the country while keeping a job) and rising prices for new and -- in particular -- used homes on wheels keep the market driving forward. Margins are widening, and net income rose 22% in Camping World&#39;s latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>它的业务继续蓬勃发展。Camping World 已连续五个季度实现两位数的收入增长，其中最新报告中增长了 14%。对房车的持续兴趣（包括退休人员、富人和意识到混合工作场所的未来意味着能够在保住工作的同时穿越全国各地的人们）以及新房车（尤其是二手车）价格上涨推动市场向前发展。利润率正在扩大，露营世界最近一个季度的净利润增长了 22%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Now we get to the good stuff. Spell out the thesis for Camping World and you wouldn&#39;t expect to find a stock selling for just six times forward earnings. You also wouldn&#39;t expect an investment that recently doubled its quarterly dividend payout, now yielding 5%. We&#39;re already lapping the start of the double-digit growth. If Camping World can keep surprising the market with its resiliency, this is a stock that can pop fivefold and still be reasonably priced. Find the keys. Take it out for a test drive.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们来谈谈好东西。详细阐述《露营世界》的论点，您不会想到会发现一只股票的售价仅为远期市盈率的六倍。您也不会想到一项投资最近将季度股息支付翻了一番，现在收益率为 5%。我们已经开始了两位数的增长。如果 Camping World 能够继续以其弹性给市场带来惊喜，那么这只股票可以上涨五倍，而且定价仍然合理。找到钥匙。拿出来试驾一下。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能增长5倍</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能增长5倍</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>If you&#39;re ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can go far in the year ahead. Why beat the market when you can crush the market?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果你准备好在2022年挥杆，你不妨为自己准备一些可以在未来一年走得很远的股票。既然可以碾压市场，为什么还要碾压市场？</body></html></blockquote></p><p><b>Peloton Interactive</b>(NASDAQ:PTON),<b>Voyager Digital</b>(OTC:VYGV.F)and <b>Camping World Holdings</b>(NYSE:CWH)are three growth stocks that I feel will trounce the market in 2022. Let&#39;s go over why I think these investments have the potential for a fivefold increase in the year ahead.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克代码：PTON），<b>航海家数字</b>（OTC：VYGV.F）和<b>露营世界控股</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CWH）是我认为将在 2022 年战胜市场的三只成长型股票。让我们回顾一下为什么我认为这些投资在未来一年有可能增长五倍。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b921271c793dcac0a4cef0e9c93f8376\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: PELOTON INTERACTIVE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：PELOTON互动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>1. Peloton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 排队</b></blockquote></p><p>You don&#39;t need to be a math major to figure out what it would take for Peloton to appreciate fivefold in 2022. The stock has fallen nearly 80% through Tuesday&#39;s close since peaking 11 months ago. All it has to do is take out its old all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要是数学专业的学生就能弄清楚Peloton需要什么才能在2022年升值五倍。自 11 个月前触及峰值以来，截至周二收盘，该股已下跌近 80%。它所要做的就是打破历史新高。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s a tall order for an out-of-favor company, and the premium home-fitness specialist is clearly in the market&#39;s doghouse. It&#39;s been a series of unfortunate events for Peloton. The stock peaked 11 months ago just as pandemic-tackling vaccines hit the market. With fitness centers and spinning-class boutiques reopening, there was less of a need to make a four-figure investment in a home-based proxy for the real thing.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家不受欢迎的公司来说，这是一个很高的要求，而这家优质家庭健身专家显然处于市场的狗窝里。对于Peloton来说，这是一系列不幸的事件。11 个月前，当应对流行病的疫苗上市时，该股达到顶峰。随着健身中心和动感单车精品店的重新开业，人们不再需要在一个基于家庭的真实代理上进行四位数的投资。</blockquote></p><p>Things got worse. It had to recall its treadmill after a few tragic accidents involving young children and pets. Recently the premiere of the <i>Sex in the City</i> spin off <i>And Just Like That</i> killed off a main character after a Peloton workout, even if Peloton did recover from that by quickly turning around a brilliant counter ad.</p><p><blockquote>事情变得更糟了。在发生了几起涉及幼儿和宠物的悲惨事故后，该公司不得不召回跑步机。最近首映的<i>欲望都市</i>分拆<i>就像那样</i>在一次Peloton训练后杀死了一个主角，即使Peloton确实通过迅速扭转一个精彩的反广告从中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p>Financially speaking, Peloton is in a funk. It has now clocked in with consecutive financial reports of sequential declines in total workout sessions and revenue after a couple of years of triple-digit top-line growth. Guidance is also problematic and uninspiring. The stock continued to sell off this month, hitting a new 52-week low on Tuesday. Investors are tax-loss harvesting, and portfolio managers are window dressing.</p><p><blockquote>从财务角度来看，Peloton 陷入了恐慌。在经历了几年三位数的营收增长后，该公司现在连续发布财务报告，显示总锻炼次数和收入连续下降。指导也是有问题的，没有启发性。该股本月持续抛售，周二创下52周新低。投资者正在收获税收损失，而投资组合经理则在装饰橱窗。</blockquote></p><p>But why is no one paying attention to the rapid surge of COVID-19 cases? With a fifth surge picking up steam, we might not be canceling our connected-fitness Peloton subscriptions anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>但为什么没有人关注新冠肺炎病例的迅速激增呢？随着第五次激增的势头增强，我们可能不会很快取消我们的联网健身Peloton订阅。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Voyager Digital</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 航海家数字</b></blockquote></p><p>You won&#39;t find too many publicly traded companies growing faster than Voyager Digital. The cryptocurrency platform saw its organic revenue soar 3,280% in its latest quarter, and that follows growth of 15,122% in its fiscal 2021 that ended in June. These aren&#39;t typos. It surpassed a million total funded accounts last month, and the money&#39;s adding up quickly. Voyager has seen its total assets under management grow from $2.6 billion at the end of June to $4.3 billion at the end of September to just shy of $7 billion by mid-November.</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现太多上市公司的增长速度比 Voyager Digital 更快。该加密货币平台在最近一个季度的有机收入飙升了 3,280%，而在截至 6 月份的 2021 财年，其有机收入增长了 15,122%。这些不是错别字。上个月，它的资金账户总数超过了100万个，而且资金正在迅速增加。Voyager 的管理总资产从 6 月底的 26 亿美元增长到 9 月底的 43 亿美元，到 11 月中旬略低于 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Voyager isn&#39;t a trading exchange itself. It outsources customer orders through a dozen exchanges and market makers. It doesn&#39;t tack on a commission, but Voyager does get a piece of the action if its smart order-routing platform is able to deliver a better price than quoted. The star attraction is that it lets crypto traders earn as much as 12% in annualized interest on their idle tokens and coins.</p><p><blockquote>Voyager 本身并不是交易所。它通过十几个交易所和做市商外包客户订单。它不收取佣金，但如果 Voyager 的智能订单路由平台能够提供比报价更好的价格，它确实可以分一杯羹。明星吸引力在于，它让加密货币交易者从闲置代币和硬币上赚取高达 12% 的年化利息。</blockquote></p><p>Growth will inevitably decelerate now that it has a much larger account base, but analysts also see it becoming profitable this fiscal year. As long as cryptocurrencies remain popular and Voyager keeps striking smart platform-widening deals, the stock has plenty of upside from its current $2.5 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司拥有更大的账户基础，增长将不可避免地放缓，但分析师也认为该公司本财年将实现盈利。只要加密货币仍然受欢迎，并且 Voyager 不断达成明智的平台拓展交易，该股目前 25 亿美元的市值就有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p><b>3. Camping World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.露营世界</b></blockquote></p><p>You can get big growth and a juicy dividend in the same spoonful. Camping World operates a chain of superstores that sell recreational vehicles (RVs) and related essentials. It&#39;s the top dog, and it&#39;s perpetually widening its lead by buying smaller regional players.</p><p><blockquote>你可以同时获得巨大的增长和丰厚的红利。露营世界经营着一家连锁超市，销售休闲车（RV）和相关必需品。它是领头羊，并且通过收购较小的地区参与者，不断扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p>Business started to pick up around May of last year, as folks realized that the pandemic was going to be around for some time and that they needed a way to travel safely over Memorial Day weekend, the upcoming summer season, and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>去年5月左右，生意开始回暖，因为人们意识到疫情将持续一段时间，他们需要一种方法在阵亡将士纪念日周末、即将到来的夏季及以后安全旅行。</blockquote></p><p>Its business continues to roll. Camping World has rattled off five consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, including a 14% gain in its latest report. Sustainable interest in RVs (including from retirees, the affluent, and folks realizing that the future of hybrid workplaces means being able to travel across the country while keeping a job) and rising prices for new and -- in particular -- used homes on wheels keep the market driving forward. Margins are widening, and net income rose 22% in Camping World&#39;s latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>它的业务继续蓬勃发展。Camping World 已连续五个季度实现两位数的收入增长，其中最新报告中增长了 14%。对房车的持续兴趣（包括退休人员、富人和意识到混合工作场所的未来意味着能够在保住工作的同时穿越全国各地的人们）以及新房车（尤其是二手车）价格上涨推动市场向前发展。利润率正在扩大，露营世界最近一个季度的净利润增长了 22%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Now we get to the good stuff. Spell out the thesis for Camping World and you wouldn&#39;t expect to find a stock selling for just six times forward earnings. You also wouldn&#39;t expect an investment that recently doubled its quarterly dividend payout, now yielding 5%. We&#39;re already lapping the start of the double-digit growth. If Camping World can keep surprising the market with its resiliency, this is a stock that can pop fivefold and still be reasonably priced. Find the keys. Take it out for a test drive.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们来谈谈好东西。详细阐述《露营世界》的论点，您不会想到会发现一只股票的售价仅为远期市盈率的六倍。您也不会想到一项投资最近将季度股息支付翻了一番，现在收益率为 5%。我们已经开始了两位数的增长。如果 Camping World 能够继续以其弹性给市场带来惊喜，那么这只股票可以上涨五倍，而且定价仍然合理。找到钥匙。拿出来试驾一下。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/29/3-growth-stocks-that-could-5x-in-2022/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VYGVF":"Voyager Digital Ltd.","CWH":"露营世界","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/29/3-growth-stocks-that-could-5x-in-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141552384","content_text":"If you're ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can go far in the year ahead. Why beat the market when you can crush the market?Peloton Interactive(NASDAQ:PTON),Voyager Digital(OTC:VYGV.F)and Camping World Holdings(NYSE:CWH)are three growth stocks that I feel will trounce the market in 2022. Let's go over why I think these investments have the potential for a fivefold increase in the year ahead.IMAGE SOURCE: PELOTON INTERACTIVE.1. PelotonYou don't need to be a math major to figure out what it would take for Peloton to appreciate fivefold in 2022. The stock has fallen nearly 80% through Tuesday's close since peaking 11 months ago. All it has to do is take out its old all-time high.It's a tall order for an out-of-favor company, and the premium home-fitness specialist is clearly in the market's doghouse. It's been a series of unfortunate events for Peloton. The stock peaked 11 months ago just as pandemic-tackling vaccines hit the market. With fitness centers and spinning-class boutiques reopening, there was less of a need to make a four-figure investment in a home-based proxy for the real thing.Things got worse. It had to recall its treadmill after a few tragic accidents involving young children and pets. Recently the premiere of the Sex in the City spin off And Just Like That killed off a main character after a Peloton workout, even if Peloton did recover from that by quickly turning around a brilliant counter ad.Financially speaking, Peloton is in a funk. It has now clocked in with consecutive financial reports of sequential declines in total workout sessions and revenue after a couple of years of triple-digit top-line growth. Guidance is also problematic and uninspiring. The stock continued to sell off this month, hitting a new 52-week low on Tuesday. Investors are tax-loss harvesting, and portfolio managers are window dressing.But why is no one paying attention to the rapid surge of COVID-19 cases? With a fifth surge picking up steam, we might not be canceling our connected-fitness Peloton subscriptions anytime soon.2. Voyager DigitalYou won't find too many publicly traded companies growing faster than Voyager Digital. The cryptocurrency platform saw its organic revenue soar 3,280% in its latest quarter, and that follows growth of 15,122% in its fiscal 2021 that ended in June. These aren't typos. It surpassed a million total funded accounts last month, and the money's adding up quickly. Voyager has seen its total assets under management grow from $2.6 billion at the end of June to $4.3 billion at the end of September to just shy of $7 billion by mid-November.Voyager isn't a trading exchange itself. It outsources customer orders through a dozen exchanges and market makers. It doesn't tack on a commission, but Voyager does get a piece of the action if its smart order-routing platform is able to deliver a better price than quoted. The star attraction is that it lets crypto traders earn as much as 12% in annualized interest on their idle tokens and coins.Growth will inevitably decelerate now that it has a much larger account base, but analysts also see it becoming profitable this fiscal year. As long as cryptocurrencies remain popular and Voyager keeps striking smart platform-widening deals, the stock has plenty of upside from its current $2.5 billion market cap.3. Camping WorldYou can get big growth and a juicy dividend in the same spoonful. Camping World operates a chain of superstores that sell recreational vehicles (RVs) and related essentials. It's the top dog, and it's perpetually widening its lead by buying smaller regional players.Business started to pick up around May of last year, as folks realized that the pandemic was going to be around for some time and that they needed a way to travel safely over Memorial Day weekend, the upcoming summer season, and beyond.Its business continues to roll. Camping World has rattled off five consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, including a 14% gain in its latest report. Sustainable interest in RVs (including from retirees, the affluent, and folks realizing that the future of hybrid workplaces means being able to travel across the country while keeping a job) and rising prices for new and -- in particular -- used homes on wheels keep the market driving forward. Margins are widening, and net income rose 22% in Camping World's latest quarter.Now we get to the good stuff. Spell out the thesis for Camping World and you wouldn't expect to find a stock selling for just six times forward earnings. You also wouldn't expect an investment that recently doubled its quarterly dividend payout, now yielding 5%. We're already lapping the start of the double-digit growth. If Camping World can keep surprising the market with its resiliency, this is a stock that can pop fivefold and still be reasonably priced. Find the keys. Take it out for a test drive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PTON":0.9,"VYGVF":0.9,"CWH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690839203,"gmtCreate":1639652783204,"gmtModify":1639654731398,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569050312475646","idStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just buy gaming crypto","listText":"Just buy gaming crypto","text":"Just buy gaming crypto","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690839203","repostId":"1144821920","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602286898,"gmtCreate":1639026557175,"gmtModify":1639026925730,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569050312475646","idStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Follow them and you lose money","listText":"Follow them and you lose money","text":"Follow them and you lose money","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602286898","repostId":"2189667447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":138182808,"gmtCreate":1621917787004,"gmtModify":1634185496587,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569050312475646","idStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Motley fool is a joke","listText":"Motley fool is a joke","text":"Motley fool is a joke","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138182808","repostId":"2137132568","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371040032,"gmtCreate":1618895417226,"gmtModify":1634290063568,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569050312475646","idStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio&nbsp;","listText":"I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio&nbsp;","text":"I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371040032","repostId":"1149811397","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149811397","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618893361,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149811397?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-20 12:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场宽容的时间太长了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149811397","media":"The Street","summary":"At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid","content":"<p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson.Stocks quotes in this article:DFLYF</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但当前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。本文中的股票报价：DFLYF</blockquote></p><p>If you haven't realized it already, the recent shift of the market will put convictions to test. Remember that small-cap or momentum stock you loved a few weeks ago? Do you love it more down 20% or 30% or are you hitting eject?</p><p><blockquote>如果你还没有意识到这一点，最近市场的变化将考验你的信念。还记得几周前你喜欢的小盘股或动量股吗？你更喜欢20%还是30%的下跌，还是你会弹出？</blockquote></p><p>We feel like we're trapped in a death by a thousand papercuts trading environment. While indexes are near highs, my momentum watchlists have bled lower a considerable amount. This is when a question of conviction comes into play. Do you not only know what you own but why you own it?</p><p><blockquote>我们感觉自己被一千个剪纸交易环境困在了死亡之中。虽然指数接近高点，但我的动量观察列表却大幅下降。这就是信念问题发挥作用的时候。你不仅知道你拥有什么，还知道你为什么拥有它吗？</blockquote></p><p>The market has been forgiving for way too long. When you can get bailed out of a bad purchase simply because everything else rallied around it, you develop bad habits. You buy tickers instead of companies. That's fine when you are trading, not so much if you're holding.</p><p><blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了。当你仅仅因为其他一切都围绕着它而从一次糟糕的购买中解脱出来时，你就会养成坏习惯。你买股票而不是公司。当您交易时这很好，但如果您持有，则不然。</blockquote></p><p>I know I'm getting beat up on many of my small and midcap holdings, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Do I get a bit annoyed watching the bleed? Of course. That's natural. But I won't pull the plug unless the story changes. Much of that revolves around the market as a whole. Most of my small picks that are getting beat up are just a half-dozen of thousands that have gotten slammed. They aren't down because something in their business misfired. They are lower because the risk appetite for the market has shifted away from entire sectors and market cap sizes.</p><p><blockquote>我知道我持有的许多中小型股正在遭受打击，但我并没有因此失眠。看着流血我会有点烦吗？当然。这很自然。但除非故事改变，否则我不会拔掉插头。其中大部分都围绕着整个市场展开。我的大多数被殴打的小选择只是被殴打的六千个。他们倒闭不是因为他们的生意出了问题。它们较低，因为市场的风险偏好已经从整个行业和市值规模转移。</blockquote></p><p>It's possible I'll add as we continue to fall. Fortunately, I haven't leveraged anything to own the names. Could I watch them go to zero and not have my life altered? Yes and no. Financially, I could still pay my bills and continue my same lifestyle. Emotionally, I'll kick myself if I ride anything to zero. That means I missed a change in the story, or worse, ignored it.</p><p><blockquote>随着我们继续下跌，我可能会补充一点。幸运的是，我没有利用任何东西来拥有这些名字。我能看着他们归零而不改变我的生活吗？是也不是。在经济上，我仍然可以支付我的账单，继续我同样的生活方式。从情感上来说，如果我把任何事情都骑到零，我会踢自己。这意味着我错过了故事中的一个变化，或者更糟，忽略了它。</blockquote></p><p>However, when I look at a small name like Draganfly (DFLYF) , a company that reported earnings over the weekend, I see they grew revenues over 200%, hit the target range of their forecasts, have a run rate that points to another 200%-300% revenue gains for 2021, and continues to execute. Despite this, shares have been cut in half over the past six weeks. Nothing changed in terms of the story or the financial models, so I'm only a seller here if technicals are my driving factors. Rarely, if ever, do I let technicals drive the bus for a small or microcap stock that I plan to hold for months or years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当我看到像 Draganfly (DFLYF) 这样的小公司时，我看到他们的收入增长了 200% 以上，达到了预测的目标范围，运行率指向另外 200%-300% 2021 年收入增长，并继续执行。尽管如此，过去六周股价仍减半。故事或财务模型没有任何变化，所以如果技术是我的驱动因素，我只是这里的卖家。我很少（如果有的话）让技术人员为我计划持有数月或数年的小型或微型股开车。</blockquote></p><p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson. You'll likely need itchy trigger fingers on the sell side. If you're going to buy names without a disciplined stop, then make sure you're buying stories you believe in and you follow those stories closely. When they change, you need to be ready to bail and if the stocks get unfairly beaten, then you should be ready to add.</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但当前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。你可能需要在卖方使用发痒的扳机手指。如果你打算不停地购买名字，那么确保你购买的是你相信的故事，并且你密切关注这些故事。当它们发生变化时，你需要准备好保释，如果股票受到不公平的打击，那么你应该准备好增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场宽容的时间太长了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场宽容的时间太长了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-20 12:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson.Stocks quotes in this article:DFLYF</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但当前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。本文中的股票报价：DFLYF</blockquote></p><p>If you haven't realized it already, the recent shift of the market will put convictions to test. Remember that small-cap or momentum stock you loved a few weeks ago? Do you love it more down 20% or 30% or are you hitting eject?</p><p><blockquote>如果你还没有意识到这一点，最近市场的变化将考验你的信念。还记得几周前你喜欢的小盘股或动量股吗？你更喜欢20%还是30%的下跌，还是你会弹出？</blockquote></p><p>We feel like we're trapped in a death by a thousand papercuts trading environment. While indexes are near highs, my momentum watchlists have bled lower a considerable amount. This is when a question of conviction comes into play. Do you not only know what you own but why you own it?</p><p><blockquote>我们感觉自己被一千个剪纸交易环境困在了死亡之中。虽然指数接近高点，但我的动量观察列表却大幅下降。这就是信念问题发挥作用的时候。你不仅知道你拥有什么，还知道你为什么拥有它吗？</blockquote></p><p>The market has been forgiving for way too long. When you can get bailed out of a bad purchase simply because everything else rallied around it, you develop bad habits. You buy tickers instead of companies. That's fine when you are trading, not so much if you're holding.</p><p><blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了。当你仅仅因为其他一切都围绕着它而从一次糟糕的购买中解脱出来时，你就会养成坏习惯。你买股票而不是公司。当您交易时这很好，但如果您持有，则不然。</blockquote></p><p>I know I'm getting beat up on many of my small and midcap holdings, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Do I get a bit annoyed watching the bleed? Of course. That's natural. But I won't pull the plug unless the story changes. Much of that revolves around the market as a whole. Most of my small picks that are getting beat up are just a half-dozen of thousands that have gotten slammed. They aren't down because something in their business misfired. They are lower because the risk appetite for the market has shifted away from entire sectors and market cap sizes.</p><p><blockquote>我知道我持有的许多中小型股正在遭受打击，但我并没有因此失眠。看着流血我会有点烦吗？当然。这很自然。但除非故事改变，否则我不会拔掉插头。其中大部分都围绕着整个市场展开。我的大多数被殴打的小选择只是被殴打的六千个。他们倒闭不是因为他们的生意出了问题。它们较低，因为市场的风险偏好已经从整个行业和市值规模转移。</blockquote></p><p>It's possible I'll add as we continue to fall. Fortunately, I haven't leveraged anything to own the names. Could I watch them go to zero and not have my life altered? Yes and no. Financially, I could still pay my bills and continue my same lifestyle. Emotionally, I'll kick myself if I ride anything to zero. That means I missed a change in the story, or worse, ignored it.</p><p><blockquote>随着我们继续下跌，我可能会补充一点。幸运的是，我没有利用任何东西来拥有这些名字。我能看着他们归零而不改变我的生活吗？是也不是。在经济上，我仍然可以支付我的账单，继续我同样的生活方式。从情感上来说，如果我把任何事情都骑到零，我会踢自己。这意味着我错过了故事中的一个变化，或者更糟，忽略了它。</blockquote></p><p>However, when I look at a small name like Draganfly (DFLYF) , a company that reported earnings over the weekend, I see they grew revenues over 200%, hit the target range of their forecasts, have a run rate that points to another 200%-300% revenue gains for 2021, and continues to execute. Despite this, shares have been cut in half over the past six weeks. Nothing changed in terms of the story or the financial models, so I'm only a seller here if technicals are my driving factors. Rarely, if ever, do I let technicals drive the bus for a small or microcap stock that I plan to hold for months or years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当我看到像 Draganfly (DFLYF) 这样的小公司时，我看到他们的收入增长了 200% 以上，达到了预测的目标范围，运行率指向另外 200%-300% 2021 年收入增长，并继续执行。尽管如此，过去六周股价仍减半。故事或财务模型没有任何变化，所以如果技术是我的驱动因素，我只是这里的卖家。我很少（如果有的话）让技术人员为我计划持有数月或数年的小型或微型股开车。</blockquote></p><p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson. You'll likely need itchy trigger fingers on the sell side. If you're going to buy names without a disciplined stop, then make sure you're buying stories you believe in and you follow those stories closely. When they change, you need to be ready to bail and if the stocks get unfairly beaten, then you should be ready to add.</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但当前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。你可能需要在卖方使用发痒的扳机手指。如果你打算不停地购买名字，那么确保你购买的是你相信的故事，并且你密切关注这些故事。当它们发生变化时，你需要准备好保释，如果股票受到不公平的打击，那么你应该准备好增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/the-market-has-been-forgiving-for-way-too-long-15628221\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/the-market-has-been-forgiving-for-way-too-long-15628221","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149811397","content_text":"At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson.Stocks quotes in this article:DFLYFIf you haven't realized it already, the recent shift of the market will put convictions to test. Remember that small-cap or momentum stock you loved a few weeks ago? Do you love it more down 20% or 30% or are you hitting eject?We feel like we're trapped in a death by a thousand papercuts trading environment. While indexes are near highs, my momentum watchlists have bled lower a considerable amount. This is when a question of conviction comes into play. Do you not only know what you own but why you own it?The market has been forgiving for way too long. When you can get bailed out of a bad purchase simply because everything else rallied around it, you develop bad habits. You buy tickers instead of companies. That's fine when you are trading, not so much if you're holding.I know I'm getting beat up on many of my small and midcap holdings, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Do I get a bit annoyed watching the bleed? Of course. That's natural. But I won't pull the plug unless the story changes. Much of that revolves around the market as a whole. Most of my small picks that are getting beat up are just a half-dozen of thousands that have gotten slammed. They aren't down because something in their business misfired. They are lower because the risk appetite for the market has shifted away from entire sectors and market cap sizes.It's possible I'll add as we continue to fall. Fortunately, I haven't leveraged anything to own the names. Could I watch them go to zero and not have my life altered? Yes and no. Financially, I could still pay my bills and continue my same lifestyle. Emotionally, I'll kick myself if I ride anything to zero. That means I missed a change in the story, or worse, ignored it.However, when I look at a small name like Draganfly (DFLYF) , a company that reported earnings over the weekend, I see they grew revenues over 200%, hit the target range of their forecasts, have a run rate that points to another 200%-300% revenue gains for 2021, and continues to execute. Despite this, shares have been cut in half over the past six weeks. Nothing changed in terms of the story or the financial models, so I'm only a seller here if technicals are my driving factors. Rarely, if ever, do I let technicals drive the bus for a small or microcap stock that I plan to hold for months or years.At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson. You'll likely need itchy trigger fingers on the sell side. If you're going to buy names without a disciplined stop, then make sure you're buying stories you believe in and you follow those stories closely. When they change, you need to be ready to bail and if the stocks get unfairly beaten, then you should be ready to add.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340882043,"gmtCreate":1617372303082,"gmtModify":1634521199734,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569050312475646","idStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Motley fool? lol","listText":"Motley fool? lol","text":"Motley fool? lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340882043","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327212866,"gmtCreate":1616086203055,"gmtModify":1634527284936,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569050312475646","idStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients&nbsp;","listText":"Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients&nbsp;","text":"Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327212866","repostId":"1172934216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322163079,"gmtCreate":1615783751291,"gmtModify":1703492895411,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569050312475646","idStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nio easy","listText":"Nio easy","text":"Nio easy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322163079","repostId":"1161179297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161179297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615771321,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161179297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更好的购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161179297","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.Stocks of electric-vehicle  makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach","content":"<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价下跌之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年电动汽车（EV）制造商的股票加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为全球最大的汽车市场继续在其交通运输领域走向电气化。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增加到500万辆。据研究机构 BloombergNEF 称，到 2030 年，这一数字可能达到 1000 万，到 2040 年将接近 2000 万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NIO）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个是更好的买入，特别是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>正确的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，全球最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）在上海建造第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们加起来只交付了 131,000 辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易：BYDDY）于2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在 2020 年交付了近 44,000 辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的交付量则比 2019 年增加了一倍多，达到 27,041 辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏P7运动轿车自2020年初上市以来，累计交付量已超过2万辆，超过G3紧凑型SUV，成为该公司最受欢迎的车型。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付 20,000 辆汽车的速度最快。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款 ET7 豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，并具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员接近时自动释放车门的“电子闩锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者纷纷涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股价分别较 2021 年 1 月的高点下跌了 27% 和 38%，现在是看看哪个可能是更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都还没有盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都很高，但销售额预计会快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它比小鹏便宜。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，该计划允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借 ET7 进军豪华轿车领域，可能有助于将该公司提升到一个新的水平。2020年，毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望拥有充足的资本来资助计划中的增长努力。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上有65亿美元的现金和现金等价物、受限制现金和短期投资，小鹏汽车约有54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港证券交易所上市筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于希望只选择一家控股公司参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，具有很大的波动性。但对于那些能够接受这一点并投资适当部分的人来说，最近股价的下跌有助于使蔚来成为目前比小鹏汽车更好的买入对象。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更好的购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更好的购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-15 09:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价下跌之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年电动汽车（EV）制造商的股票加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为全球最大的汽车市场继续在其交通运输领域走向电气化。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增加到500万辆。据研究机构 BloombergNEF 称，到 2030 年，这一数字可能达到 1000 万，到 2040 年将接近 2000 万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NIO）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个是更好的买入，特别是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>正确的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，全球最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）在上海建造第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们加起来只交付了 131,000 辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易：BYDDY）于2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在 2020 年交付了近 44,000 辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的交付量则比 2019 年增加了一倍多，达到 27,041 辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏P7运动轿车自2020年初上市以来，累计交付量已超过2万辆，超过G3紧凑型SUV，成为该公司最受欢迎的车型。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付 20,000 辆汽车的速度最快。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款 ET7 豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，并具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员接近时自动释放车门的“电子闩锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者纷纷涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股价分别较 2021 年 1 月的高点下跌了 27% 和 38%，现在是看看哪个可能是更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都还没有盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都很高，但销售额预计会快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它比小鹏便宜。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，该计划允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借 ET7 进军豪华轿车领域，可能有助于将该公司提升到一个新的水平。2020年，毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望拥有充足的资本来资助计划中的增长努力。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上有65亿美元的现金和现金等价物、受限制现金和短期投资，小鹏汽车约有54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港证券交易所上市筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于希望只选择一家控股公司参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，具有很大的波动性。但对于那些能够接受这一点并投资适当部分的人来说，最近股价的下跌有助于使蔚来成为目前比小鹏汽车更好的买入对象。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏集团","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161179297","content_text":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.\nStocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.\nEV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are NIO (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.\nThe right market\nAs noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that BYD (OTC:BYDDY) sold in 2020.\nNIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.\nXPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.\nNIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.\nPriced for perfection\nThe strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.\nNeither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The price-to-sales ratios (P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.\nNIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS\nThough NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.\nLooking ahead\nNIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.\nBoth companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.\nFor investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":138182808,"gmtCreate":1621917787004,"gmtModify":1634185496587,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Motley fool is a joke","listText":"Motley fool is a joke","text":"Motley fool is a joke","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138182808","repostId":"2137132568","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":602286898,"gmtCreate":1639026557175,"gmtModify":1639026925730,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Follow them and you lose money","listText":"Follow them and you lose money","text":"Follow them and you lose money","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602286898","repostId":"2189667447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327212866,"gmtCreate":1616086203055,"gmtModify":1634527284936,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients&nbsp;","listText":"Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients&nbsp;","text":"Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327212866","repostId":"1172934216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":690839203,"gmtCreate":1639652783204,"gmtModify":1639654731398,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just buy gaming crypto","listText":"Just buy gaming crypto","text":"Just buy gaming crypto","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690839203","repostId":"1144821920","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":371040032,"gmtCreate":1618895417226,"gmtModify":1634290063568,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio&nbsp;","listText":"I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio&nbsp;","text":"I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371040032","repostId":"1149811397","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149811397","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618893361,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149811397?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-20 12:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场宽容的时间太长了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149811397","media":"The Street","summary":"At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid","content":"<p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson.Stocks quotes in this article:DFLYF</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但当前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。本文中的股票报价：DFLYF</blockquote></p><p>If you haven't realized it already, the recent shift of the market will put convictions to test. Remember that small-cap or momentum stock you loved a few weeks ago? Do you love it more down 20% or 30% or are you hitting eject?</p><p><blockquote>如果你还没有意识到这一点，最近市场的变化将考验你的信念。还记得几周前你喜欢的小盘股或动量股吗？你更喜欢20%还是30%的下跌，还是你会弹出？</blockquote></p><p>We feel like we're trapped in a death by a thousand papercuts trading environment. While indexes are near highs, my momentum watchlists have bled lower a considerable amount. This is when a question of conviction comes into play. Do you not only know what you own but why you own it?</p><p><blockquote>我们感觉自己被一千个剪纸交易环境困在了死亡之中。虽然指数接近高点，但我的动量观察列表却大幅下降。这就是信念问题发挥作用的时候。你不仅知道你拥有什么，还知道你为什么拥有它吗？</blockquote></p><p>The market has been forgiving for way too long. When you can get bailed out of a bad purchase simply because everything else rallied around it, you develop bad habits. You buy tickers instead of companies. That's fine when you are trading, not so much if you're holding.</p><p><blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了。当你仅仅因为其他一切都围绕着它而从一次糟糕的购买中解脱出来时，你就会养成坏习惯。你买股票而不是公司。当您交易时这很好，但如果您持有，则不然。</blockquote></p><p>I know I'm getting beat up on many of my small and midcap holdings, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Do I get a bit annoyed watching the bleed? Of course. That's natural. But I won't pull the plug unless the story changes. Much of that revolves around the market as a whole. Most of my small picks that are getting beat up are just a half-dozen of thousands that have gotten slammed. They aren't down because something in their business misfired. They are lower because the risk appetite for the market has shifted away from entire sectors and market cap sizes.</p><p><blockquote>我知道我持有的许多中小型股正在遭受打击，但我并没有因此失眠。看着流血我会有点烦吗？当然。这很自然。但除非故事改变，否则我不会拔掉插头。其中大部分都围绕着整个市场展开。我的大多数被殴打的小选择只是被殴打的六千个。他们倒闭不是因为他们的生意出了问题。它们较低，因为市场的风险偏好已经从整个行业和市值规模转移。</blockquote></p><p>It's possible I'll add as we continue to fall. Fortunately, I haven't leveraged anything to own the names. Could I watch them go to zero and not have my life altered? Yes and no. Financially, I could still pay my bills and continue my same lifestyle. Emotionally, I'll kick myself if I ride anything to zero. That means I missed a change in the story, or worse, ignored it.</p><p><blockquote>随着我们继续下跌，我可能会补充一点。幸运的是，我没有利用任何东西来拥有这些名字。我能看着他们归零而不改变我的生活吗？是也不是。在经济上，我仍然可以支付我的账单，继续我同样的生活方式。从情感上来说，如果我把任何事情都骑到零，我会踢自己。这意味着我错过了故事中的一个变化，或者更糟，忽略了它。</blockquote></p><p>However, when I look at a small name like Draganfly (DFLYF) , a company that reported earnings over the weekend, I see they grew revenues over 200%, hit the target range of their forecasts, have a run rate that points to another 200%-300% revenue gains for 2021, and continues to execute. Despite this, shares have been cut in half over the past six weeks. Nothing changed in terms of the story or the financial models, so I'm only a seller here if technicals are my driving factors. Rarely, if ever, do I let technicals drive the bus for a small or microcap stock that I plan to hold for months or years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当我看到像 Draganfly (DFLYF) 这样的小公司时，我看到他们的收入增长了 200% 以上，达到了预测的目标范围，运行率指向另外 200%-300% 2021 年收入增长，并继续执行。尽管如此，过去六周股价仍减半。故事或财务模型没有任何变化，所以如果技术是我的驱动因素，我只是这里的卖家。我很少（如果有的话）让技术人员为我计划持有数月或数年的小型或微型股开车。</blockquote></p><p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson. You'll likely need itchy trigger fingers on the sell side. If you're going to buy names without a disciplined stop, then make sure you're buying stories you believe in and you follow those stories closely. When they change, you need to be ready to bail and if the stocks get unfairly beaten, then you should be ready to add.</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但当前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。你可能需要在卖方使用发痒的扳机手指。如果你打算不停地购买名字，那么确保你购买的是你相信的故事，并且你密切关注这些故事。当它们发生变化时，你需要准备好保释，如果股票受到不公平的打击，那么你应该准备好增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场宽容的时间太长了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场宽容的时间太长了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-20 12:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson.Stocks quotes in this article:DFLYF</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但当前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。本文中的股票报价：DFLYF</blockquote></p><p>If you haven't realized it already, the recent shift of the market will put convictions to test. Remember that small-cap or momentum stock you loved a few weeks ago? Do you love it more down 20% or 30% or are you hitting eject?</p><p><blockquote>如果你还没有意识到这一点，最近市场的变化将考验你的信念。还记得几周前你喜欢的小盘股或动量股吗？你更喜欢20%还是30%的下跌，还是你会弹出？</blockquote></p><p>We feel like we're trapped in a death by a thousand papercuts trading environment. While indexes are near highs, my momentum watchlists have bled lower a considerable amount. This is when a question of conviction comes into play. Do you not only know what you own but why you own it?</p><p><blockquote>我们感觉自己被一千个剪纸交易环境困在了死亡之中。虽然指数接近高点，但我的动量观察列表却大幅下降。这就是信念问题发挥作用的时候。你不仅知道你拥有什么，还知道你为什么拥有它吗？</blockquote></p><p>The market has been forgiving for way too long. When you can get bailed out of a bad purchase simply because everything else rallied around it, you develop bad habits. You buy tickers instead of companies. That's fine when you are trading, not so much if you're holding.</p><p><blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了。当你仅仅因为其他一切都围绕着它而从一次糟糕的购买中解脱出来时，你就会养成坏习惯。你买股票而不是公司。当您交易时这很好，但如果您持有，则不然。</blockquote></p><p>I know I'm getting beat up on many of my small and midcap holdings, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Do I get a bit annoyed watching the bleed? Of course. That's natural. But I won't pull the plug unless the story changes. Much of that revolves around the market as a whole. Most of my small picks that are getting beat up are just a half-dozen of thousands that have gotten slammed. They aren't down because something in their business misfired. They are lower because the risk appetite for the market has shifted away from entire sectors and market cap sizes.</p><p><blockquote>我知道我持有的许多中小型股正在遭受打击，但我并没有因此失眠。看着流血我会有点烦吗？当然。这很自然。但除非故事改变，否则我不会拔掉插头。其中大部分都围绕着整个市场展开。我的大多数被殴打的小选择只是被殴打的六千个。他们倒闭不是因为他们的生意出了问题。它们较低，因为市场的风险偏好已经从整个行业和市值规模转移。</blockquote></p><p>It's possible I'll add as we continue to fall. Fortunately, I haven't leveraged anything to own the names. Could I watch them go to zero and not have my life altered? Yes and no. Financially, I could still pay my bills and continue my same lifestyle. Emotionally, I'll kick myself if I ride anything to zero. That means I missed a change in the story, or worse, ignored it.</p><p><blockquote>随着我们继续下跌，我可能会补充一点。幸运的是，我没有利用任何东西来拥有这些名字。我能看着他们归零而不改变我的生活吗？是也不是。在经济上，我仍然可以支付我的账单，继续我同样的生活方式。从情感上来说，如果我把任何事情都骑到零，我会踢自己。这意味着我错过了故事中的一个变化，或者更糟，忽略了它。</blockquote></p><p>However, when I look at a small name like Draganfly (DFLYF) , a company that reported earnings over the weekend, I see they grew revenues over 200%, hit the target range of their forecasts, have a run rate that points to another 200%-300% revenue gains for 2021, and continues to execute. Despite this, shares have been cut in half over the past six weeks. Nothing changed in terms of the story or the financial models, so I'm only a seller here if technicals are my driving factors. Rarely, if ever, do I let technicals drive the bus for a small or microcap stock that I plan to hold for months or years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当我看到像 Draganfly (DFLYF) 这样的小公司时，我看到他们的收入增长了 200% 以上，达到了预测的目标范围，运行率指向另外 200%-300% 2021 年收入增长，并继续执行。尽管如此，过去六周股价仍减半。故事或财务模型没有任何变化，所以如果技术是我的驱动因素，我只是这里的卖家。我很少（如果有的话）让技术人员为我计划持有数月或数年的小型或微型股开车。</blockquote></p><p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson. You'll likely need itchy trigger fingers on the sell side. If you're going to buy names without a disciplined stop, then make sure you're buying stories you believe in and you follow those stories closely. When they change, you need to be ready to bail and if the stocks get unfairly beaten, then you should be ready to add.</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但当前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。你可能需要在卖方使用发痒的扳机手指。如果你打算不停地购买名字，那么确保你购买的是你相信的故事，并且你密切关注这些故事。当它们发生变化时，你需要准备好保释，如果股票受到不公平的打击，那么你应该准备好增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/the-market-has-been-forgiving-for-way-too-long-15628221\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/the-market-has-been-forgiving-for-way-too-long-15628221","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149811397","content_text":"At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson.Stocks quotes in this article:DFLYFIf you haven't realized it already, the recent shift of the market will put convictions to test. Remember that small-cap or momentum stock you loved a few weeks ago? Do you love it more down 20% or 30% or are you hitting eject?We feel like we're trapped in a death by a thousand papercuts trading environment. While indexes are near highs, my momentum watchlists have bled lower a considerable amount. This is when a question of conviction comes into play. Do you not only know what you own but why you own it?The market has been forgiving for way too long. When you can get bailed out of a bad purchase simply because everything else rallied around it, you develop bad habits. You buy tickers instead of companies. That's fine when you are trading, not so much if you're holding.I know I'm getting beat up on many of my small and midcap holdings, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Do I get a bit annoyed watching the bleed? Of course. That's natural. But I won't pull the plug unless the story changes. Much of that revolves around the market as a whole. Most of my small picks that are getting beat up are just a half-dozen of thousands that have gotten slammed. They aren't down because something in their business misfired. They are lower because the risk appetite for the market has shifted away from entire sectors and market cap sizes.It's possible I'll add as we continue to fall. Fortunately, I haven't leveraged anything to own the names. Could I watch them go to zero and not have my life altered? Yes and no. Financially, I could still pay my bills and continue my same lifestyle. Emotionally, I'll kick myself if I ride anything to zero. That means I missed a change in the story, or worse, ignored it.However, when I look at a small name like Draganfly (DFLYF) , a company that reported earnings over the weekend, I see they grew revenues over 200%, hit the target range of their forecasts, have a run rate that points to another 200%-300% revenue gains for 2021, and continues to execute. Despite this, shares have been cut in half over the past six weeks. Nothing changed in terms of the story or the financial models, so I'm only a seller here if technicals are my driving factors. Rarely, if ever, do I let technicals drive the bus for a small or microcap stock that I plan to hold for months or years.At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson. You'll likely need itchy trigger fingers on the sell side. If you're going to buy names without a disciplined stop, then make sure you're buying stories you believe in and you follow those stories closely. When they change, you need to be ready to bail and if the stocks get unfairly beaten, then you should be ready to add.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340882043,"gmtCreate":1617372303082,"gmtModify":1634521199734,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Motley fool? lol","listText":"Motley fool? lol","text":"Motley fool? lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340882043","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322163079,"gmtCreate":1615783751291,"gmtModify":1703492895411,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nio easy","listText":"Nio easy","text":"Nio easy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322163079","repostId":"1161179297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161179297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615771321,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161179297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更好的购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161179297","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.Stocks of electric-vehicle  makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach","content":"<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价下跌之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年电动汽车（EV）制造商的股票加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为全球最大的汽车市场继续在其交通运输领域走向电气化。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增加到500万辆。据研究机构 BloombergNEF 称，到 2030 年，这一数字可能达到 1000 万，到 2040 年将接近 2000 万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NIO）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个是更好的买入，特别是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>正确的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，全球最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）在上海建造第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们加起来只交付了 131,000 辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易：BYDDY）于2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在 2020 年交付了近 44,000 辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的交付量则比 2019 年增加了一倍多，达到 27,041 辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏P7运动轿车自2020年初上市以来，累计交付量已超过2万辆，超过G3紧凑型SUV，成为该公司最受欢迎的车型。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付 20,000 辆汽车的速度最快。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款 ET7 豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，并具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员接近时自动释放车门的“电子闩锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者纷纷涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股价分别较 2021 年 1 月的高点下跌了 27% 和 38%，现在是看看哪个可能是更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都还没有盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都很高，但销售额预计会快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它比小鹏便宜。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，该计划允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借 ET7 进军豪华轿车领域，可能有助于将该公司提升到一个新的水平。2020年，毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望拥有充足的资本来资助计划中的增长努力。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上有65亿美元的现金和现金等价物、受限制现金和短期投资，小鹏汽车约有54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港证券交易所上市筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于希望只选择一家控股公司参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，具有很大的波动性。但对于那些能够接受这一点并投资适当部分的人来说，最近股价的下跌有助于使蔚来成为目前比小鹏汽车更好的买入对象。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更好的购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更好的购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-15 09:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价下跌之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年电动汽车（EV）制造商的股票加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为全球最大的汽车市场继续在其交通运输领域走向电气化。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增加到500万辆。据研究机构 BloombergNEF 称，到 2030 年，这一数字可能达到 1000 万，到 2040 年将接近 2000 万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NIO）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个是更好的买入，特别是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>正确的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，全球最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）在上海建造第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们加起来只交付了 131,000 辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易：BYDDY）于2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在 2020 年交付了近 44,000 辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的交付量则比 2019 年增加了一倍多，达到 27,041 辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏P7运动轿车自2020年初上市以来，累计交付量已超过2万辆，超过G3紧凑型SUV，成为该公司最受欢迎的车型。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付 20,000 辆汽车的速度最快。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款 ET7 豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，并具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员接近时自动释放车门的“电子闩锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者纷纷涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股价分别较 2021 年 1 月的高点下跌了 27% 和 38%，现在是看看哪个可能是更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都还没有盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都很高，但销售额预计会快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它比小鹏便宜。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，该计划允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借 ET7 进军豪华轿车领域，可能有助于将该公司提升到一个新的水平。2020年，毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望拥有充足的资本来资助计划中的增长努力。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上有65亿美元的现金和现金等价物、受限制现金和短期投资，小鹏汽车约有54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港证券交易所上市筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于希望只选择一家控股公司参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，具有很大的波动性。但对于那些能够接受这一点并投资适当部分的人来说，最近股价的下跌有助于使蔚来成为目前比小鹏汽车更好的买入对象。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏集团","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161179297","content_text":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.\nStocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.\nEV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are NIO (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.\nThe right market\nAs noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that BYD (OTC:BYDDY) sold in 2020.\nNIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.\nXPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.\nNIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.\nPriced for perfection\nThe strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.\nNeither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The price-to-sales ratios (P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.\nNIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS\nThough NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.\nLooking ahead\nNIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.\nBoth companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.\nFor investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":692396363,"gmtCreate":1640840833261,"gmtModify":1640840833726,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lol pton","listText":"Lol pton","text":"Lol pton","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692396363","repostId":"1141552384","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1141552384","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640836019,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1141552384?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 11:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能增长5倍</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141552384","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"If you're ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>If you&#39;re ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can go far in the year ahead. Why beat the market when you can crush the market?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果你准备好在2022年挥杆，你不妨为自己准备一些可以在未来一年走得很远的股票。既然可以碾压市场，为什么还要碾压市场？</body></html></blockquote></p><p><b>Peloton Interactive</b>(NASDAQ:PTON),<b>Voyager Digital</b>(OTC:VYGV.F)and <b>Camping World Holdings</b>(NYSE:CWH)are three growth stocks that I feel will trounce the market in 2022. Let&#39;s go over why I think these investments have the potential for a fivefold increase in the year ahead.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克代码：PTON），<b>航海家数字</b>（OTC：VYGV.F）和<b>露营世界控股</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CWH）是我认为将在 2022 年战胜市场的三只成长型股票。让我们回顾一下为什么我认为这些投资在未来一年有可能增长五倍。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b921271c793dcac0a4cef0e9c93f8376\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: PELOTON INTERACTIVE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：PELOTON互动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>1. Peloton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 排队</b></blockquote></p><p>You don&#39;t need to be a math major to figure out what it would take for Peloton to appreciate fivefold in 2022. The stock has fallen nearly 80% through Tuesday&#39;s close since peaking 11 months ago. All it has to do is take out its old all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要是数学专业的学生就能弄清楚Peloton需要什么才能在2022年升值五倍。自 11 个月前触及峰值以来，截至周二收盘，该股已下跌近 80%。它所要做的就是打破历史新高。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s a tall order for an out-of-favor company, and the premium home-fitness specialist is clearly in the market&#39;s doghouse. It&#39;s been a series of unfortunate events for Peloton. The stock peaked 11 months ago just as pandemic-tackling vaccines hit the market. With fitness centers and spinning-class boutiques reopening, there was less of a need to make a four-figure investment in a home-based proxy for the real thing.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家不受欢迎的公司来说，这是一个很高的要求，而这家优质家庭健身专家显然处于市场的狗窝里。对于Peloton来说，这是一系列不幸的事件。11 个月前，当应对流行病的疫苗上市时，该股达到顶峰。随着健身中心和动感单车精品店的重新开业，人们不再需要在一个基于家庭的真实代理上进行四位数的投资。</blockquote></p><p>Things got worse. It had to recall its treadmill after a few tragic accidents involving young children and pets. Recently the premiere of the <i>Sex in the City</i> spin off <i>And Just Like That</i> killed off a main character after a Peloton workout, even if Peloton did recover from that by quickly turning around a brilliant counter ad.</p><p><blockquote>事情变得更糟了。在发生了几起涉及幼儿和宠物的悲惨事故后，该公司不得不召回跑步机。最近首映的<i>欲望都市</i>分拆<i>就像那样</i>在一次Peloton训练后杀死了一个主角，即使Peloton确实通过迅速扭转一个精彩的反广告从中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p>Financially speaking, Peloton is in a funk. It has now clocked in with consecutive financial reports of sequential declines in total workout sessions and revenue after a couple of years of triple-digit top-line growth. Guidance is also problematic and uninspiring. The stock continued to sell off this month, hitting a new 52-week low on Tuesday. Investors are tax-loss harvesting, and portfolio managers are window dressing.</p><p><blockquote>从财务角度来看，Peloton 陷入了恐慌。在经历了几年三位数的营收增长后，该公司现在连续发布财务报告，显示总锻炼次数和收入连续下降。指导也是有问题的，没有启发性。该股本月持续抛售，周二创下52周新低。投资者正在收获税收损失，而投资组合经理则在装饰橱窗。</blockquote></p><p>But why is no one paying attention to the rapid surge of COVID-19 cases? With a fifth surge picking up steam, we might not be canceling our connected-fitness Peloton subscriptions anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>但为什么没有人关注新冠肺炎病例的迅速激增呢？随着第五次激增的势头增强，我们可能不会很快取消我们的联网健身Peloton订阅。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Voyager Digital</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 航海家数字</b></blockquote></p><p>You won&#39;t find too many publicly traded companies growing faster than Voyager Digital. The cryptocurrency platform saw its organic revenue soar 3,280% in its latest quarter, and that follows growth of 15,122% in its fiscal 2021 that ended in June. These aren&#39;t typos. It surpassed a million total funded accounts last month, and the money&#39;s adding up quickly. Voyager has seen its total assets under management grow from $2.6 billion at the end of June to $4.3 billion at the end of September to just shy of $7 billion by mid-November.</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现太多上市公司的增长速度比 Voyager Digital 更快。该加密货币平台在最近一个季度的有机收入飙升了 3,280%，而在截至 6 月份的 2021 财年，其有机收入增长了 15,122%。这些不是错别字。上个月，它的资金账户总数超过了100万个，而且资金正在迅速增加。Voyager 的管理总资产从 6 月底的 26 亿美元增长到 9 月底的 43 亿美元，到 11 月中旬略低于 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Voyager isn&#39;t a trading exchange itself. It outsources customer orders through a dozen exchanges and market makers. It doesn&#39;t tack on a commission, but Voyager does get a piece of the action if its smart order-routing platform is able to deliver a better price than quoted. The star attraction is that it lets crypto traders earn as much as 12% in annualized interest on their idle tokens and coins.</p><p><blockquote>Voyager 本身并不是交易所。它通过十几个交易所和做市商外包客户订单。它不收取佣金，但如果 Voyager 的智能订单路由平台能够提供比报价更好的价格，它确实可以分一杯羹。明星吸引力在于，它让加密货币交易者从闲置代币和硬币上赚取高达 12% 的年化利息。</blockquote></p><p>Growth will inevitably decelerate now that it has a much larger account base, but analysts also see it becoming profitable this fiscal year. As long as cryptocurrencies remain popular and Voyager keeps striking smart platform-widening deals, the stock has plenty of upside from its current $2.5 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司拥有更大的账户基础，增长将不可避免地放缓，但分析师也认为该公司本财年将实现盈利。只要加密货币仍然受欢迎，并且 Voyager 不断达成明智的平台拓展交易，该股目前 25 亿美元的市值就有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p><b>3. Camping World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.露营世界</b></blockquote></p><p>You can get big growth and a juicy dividend in the same spoonful. Camping World operates a chain of superstores that sell recreational vehicles (RVs) and related essentials. It&#39;s the top dog, and it&#39;s perpetually widening its lead by buying smaller regional players.</p><p><blockquote>你可以同时获得巨大的增长和丰厚的红利。露营世界经营着一家连锁超市，销售休闲车（RV）和相关必需品。它是领头羊，并且通过收购较小的地区参与者，不断扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p>Business started to pick up around May of last year, as folks realized that the pandemic was going to be around for some time and that they needed a way to travel safely over Memorial Day weekend, the upcoming summer season, and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>去年5月左右，生意开始回暖，因为人们意识到疫情将持续一段时间，他们需要一种方法在阵亡将士纪念日周末、即将到来的夏季及以后安全旅行。</blockquote></p><p>Its business continues to roll. Camping World has rattled off five consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, including a 14% gain in its latest report. Sustainable interest in RVs (including from retirees, the affluent, and folks realizing that the future of hybrid workplaces means being able to travel across the country while keeping a job) and rising prices for new and -- in particular -- used homes on wheels keep the market driving forward. Margins are widening, and net income rose 22% in Camping World&#39;s latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>它的业务继续蓬勃发展。Camping World 已连续五个季度实现两位数的收入增长，其中最新报告中增长了 14%。对房车的持续兴趣（包括退休人员、富人和意识到混合工作场所的未来意味着能够在保住工作的同时穿越全国各地的人们）以及新房车（尤其是二手车）价格上涨推动市场向前发展。利润率正在扩大，露营世界最近一个季度的净利润增长了 22%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Now we get to the good stuff. Spell out the thesis for Camping World and you wouldn&#39;t expect to find a stock selling for just six times forward earnings. You also wouldn&#39;t expect an investment that recently doubled its quarterly dividend payout, now yielding 5%. We&#39;re already lapping the start of the double-digit growth. If Camping World can keep surprising the market with its resiliency, this is a stock that can pop fivefold and still be reasonably priced. Find the keys. Take it out for a test drive.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们来谈谈好东西。详细阐述《露营世界》的论点，您不会想到会发现一只股票的售价仅为远期市盈率的六倍。您也不会想到一项投资最近将季度股息支付翻了一番，现在收益率为 5%。我们已经开始了两位数的增长。如果 Camping World 能够继续以其弹性给市场带来惊喜，那么这只股票可以上涨五倍，而且定价仍然合理。找到钥匙。拿出来试驾一下。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能增长5倍</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能增长5倍</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>If you&#39;re ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can go far in the year ahead. Why beat the market when you can crush the market?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果你准备好在2022年挥杆，你不妨为自己准备一些可以在未来一年走得很远的股票。既然可以碾压市场，为什么还要碾压市场？</body></html></blockquote></p><p><b>Peloton Interactive</b>(NASDAQ:PTON),<b>Voyager Digital</b>(OTC:VYGV.F)and <b>Camping World Holdings</b>(NYSE:CWH)are three growth stocks that I feel will trounce the market in 2022. Let&#39;s go over why I think these investments have the potential for a fivefold increase in the year ahead.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克代码：PTON），<b>航海家数字</b>（OTC：VYGV.F）和<b>露营世界控股</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CWH）是我认为将在 2022 年战胜市场的三只成长型股票。让我们回顾一下为什么我认为这些投资在未来一年有可能增长五倍。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b921271c793dcac0a4cef0e9c93f8376\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: PELOTON INTERACTIVE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：PELOTON互动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>1. Peloton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 排队</b></blockquote></p><p>You don&#39;t need to be a math major to figure out what it would take for Peloton to appreciate fivefold in 2022. The stock has fallen nearly 80% through Tuesday&#39;s close since peaking 11 months ago. All it has to do is take out its old all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要是数学专业的学生就能弄清楚Peloton需要什么才能在2022年升值五倍。自 11 个月前触及峰值以来，截至周二收盘，该股已下跌近 80%。它所要做的就是打破历史新高。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s a tall order for an out-of-favor company, and the premium home-fitness specialist is clearly in the market&#39;s doghouse. It&#39;s been a series of unfortunate events for Peloton. The stock peaked 11 months ago just as pandemic-tackling vaccines hit the market. With fitness centers and spinning-class boutiques reopening, there was less of a need to make a four-figure investment in a home-based proxy for the real thing.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家不受欢迎的公司来说，这是一个很高的要求，而这家优质家庭健身专家显然处于市场的狗窝里。对于Peloton来说，这是一系列不幸的事件。11 个月前，当应对流行病的疫苗上市时，该股达到顶峰。随着健身中心和动感单车精品店的重新开业，人们不再需要在一个基于家庭的真实代理上进行四位数的投资。</blockquote></p><p>Things got worse. It had to recall its treadmill after a few tragic accidents involving young children and pets. Recently the premiere of the <i>Sex in the City</i> spin off <i>And Just Like That</i> killed off a main character after a Peloton workout, even if Peloton did recover from that by quickly turning around a brilliant counter ad.</p><p><blockquote>事情变得更糟了。在发生了几起涉及幼儿和宠物的悲惨事故后，该公司不得不召回跑步机。最近首映的<i>欲望都市</i>分拆<i>就像那样</i>在一次Peloton训练后杀死了一个主角，即使Peloton确实通过迅速扭转一个精彩的反广告从中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p>Financially speaking, Peloton is in a funk. It has now clocked in with consecutive financial reports of sequential declines in total workout sessions and revenue after a couple of years of triple-digit top-line growth. Guidance is also problematic and uninspiring. The stock continued to sell off this month, hitting a new 52-week low on Tuesday. Investors are tax-loss harvesting, and portfolio managers are window dressing.</p><p><blockquote>从财务角度来看，Peloton 陷入了恐慌。在经历了几年三位数的营收增长后，该公司现在连续发布财务报告，显示总锻炼次数和收入连续下降。指导也是有问题的，没有启发性。该股本月持续抛售，周二创下52周新低。投资者正在收获税收损失，而投资组合经理则在装饰橱窗。</blockquote></p><p>But why is no one paying attention to the rapid surge of COVID-19 cases? With a fifth surge picking up steam, we might not be canceling our connected-fitness Peloton subscriptions anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>但为什么没有人关注新冠肺炎病例的迅速激增呢？随着第五次激增的势头增强，我们可能不会很快取消我们的联网健身Peloton订阅。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Voyager Digital</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 航海家数字</b></blockquote></p><p>You won&#39;t find too many publicly traded companies growing faster than Voyager Digital. The cryptocurrency platform saw its organic revenue soar 3,280% in its latest quarter, and that follows growth of 15,122% in its fiscal 2021 that ended in June. These aren&#39;t typos. It surpassed a million total funded accounts last month, and the money&#39;s adding up quickly. Voyager has seen its total assets under management grow from $2.6 billion at the end of June to $4.3 billion at the end of September to just shy of $7 billion by mid-November.</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现太多上市公司的增长速度比 Voyager Digital 更快。该加密货币平台在最近一个季度的有机收入飙升了 3,280%，而在截至 6 月份的 2021 财年，其有机收入增长了 15,122%。这些不是错别字。上个月，它的资金账户总数超过了100万个，而且资金正在迅速增加。Voyager 的管理总资产从 6 月底的 26 亿美元增长到 9 月底的 43 亿美元，到 11 月中旬略低于 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Voyager isn&#39;t a trading exchange itself. It outsources customer orders through a dozen exchanges and market makers. It doesn&#39;t tack on a commission, but Voyager does get a piece of the action if its smart order-routing platform is able to deliver a better price than quoted. The star attraction is that it lets crypto traders earn as much as 12% in annualized interest on their idle tokens and coins.</p><p><blockquote>Voyager 本身并不是交易所。它通过十几个交易所和做市商外包客户订单。它不收取佣金，但如果 Voyager 的智能订单路由平台能够提供比报价更好的价格，它确实可以分一杯羹。明星吸引力在于，它让加密货币交易者从闲置代币和硬币上赚取高达 12% 的年化利息。</blockquote></p><p>Growth will inevitably decelerate now that it has a much larger account base, but analysts also see it becoming profitable this fiscal year. As long as cryptocurrencies remain popular and Voyager keeps striking smart platform-widening deals, the stock has plenty of upside from its current $2.5 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司拥有更大的账户基础，增长将不可避免地放缓，但分析师也认为该公司本财年将实现盈利。只要加密货币仍然受欢迎，并且 Voyager 不断达成明智的平台拓展交易，该股目前 25 亿美元的市值就有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p><b>3. Camping World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.露营世界</b></blockquote></p><p>You can get big growth and a juicy dividend in the same spoonful. Camping World operates a chain of superstores that sell recreational vehicles (RVs) and related essentials. It&#39;s the top dog, and it&#39;s perpetually widening its lead by buying smaller regional players.</p><p><blockquote>你可以同时获得巨大的增长和丰厚的红利。露营世界经营着一家连锁超市，销售休闲车（RV）和相关必需品。它是领头羊，并且通过收购较小的地区参与者，不断扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p>Business started to pick up around May of last year, as folks realized that the pandemic was going to be around for some time and that they needed a way to travel safely over Memorial Day weekend, the upcoming summer season, and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>去年5月左右，生意开始回暖，因为人们意识到疫情将持续一段时间，他们需要一种方法在阵亡将士纪念日周末、即将到来的夏季及以后安全旅行。</blockquote></p><p>Its business continues to roll. Camping World has rattled off five consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, including a 14% gain in its latest report. Sustainable interest in RVs (including from retirees, the affluent, and folks realizing that the future of hybrid workplaces means being able to travel across the country while keeping a job) and rising prices for new and -- in particular -- used homes on wheels keep the market driving forward. Margins are widening, and net income rose 22% in Camping World&#39;s latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>它的业务继续蓬勃发展。Camping World 已连续五个季度实现两位数的收入增长，其中最新报告中增长了 14%。对房车的持续兴趣（包括退休人员、富人和意识到混合工作场所的未来意味着能够在保住工作的同时穿越全国各地的人们）以及新房车（尤其是二手车）价格上涨推动市场向前发展。利润率正在扩大，露营世界最近一个季度的净利润增长了 22%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Now we get to the good stuff. Spell out the thesis for Camping World and you wouldn&#39;t expect to find a stock selling for just six times forward earnings. You also wouldn&#39;t expect an investment that recently doubled its quarterly dividend payout, now yielding 5%. We&#39;re already lapping the start of the double-digit growth. If Camping World can keep surprising the market with its resiliency, this is a stock that can pop fivefold and still be reasonably priced. Find the keys. Take it out for a test drive.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们来谈谈好东西。详细阐述《露营世界》的论点，您不会想到会发现一只股票的售价仅为远期市盈率的六倍。您也不会想到一项投资最近将季度股息支付翻了一番，现在收益率为 5%。我们已经开始了两位数的增长。如果 Camping World 能够继续以其弹性给市场带来惊喜，那么这只股票可以上涨五倍，而且定价仍然合理。找到钥匙。拿出来试驾一下。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/29/3-growth-stocks-that-could-5x-in-2022/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VYGVF":"Voyager Digital Ltd.","CWH":"露营世界","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/29/3-growth-stocks-that-could-5x-in-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141552384","content_text":"If you're ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can go far in the year ahead. Why beat the market when you can crush the market?Peloton Interactive(NASDAQ:PTON),Voyager Digital(OTC:VYGV.F)and Camping World Holdings(NYSE:CWH)are three growth stocks that I feel will trounce the market in 2022. Let's go over why I think these investments have the potential for a fivefold increase in the year ahead.IMAGE SOURCE: PELOTON INTERACTIVE.1. PelotonYou don't need to be a math major to figure out what it would take for Peloton to appreciate fivefold in 2022. The stock has fallen nearly 80% through Tuesday's close since peaking 11 months ago. All it has to do is take out its old all-time high.It's a tall order for an out-of-favor company, and the premium home-fitness specialist is clearly in the market's doghouse. It's been a series of unfortunate events for Peloton. The stock peaked 11 months ago just as pandemic-tackling vaccines hit the market. With fitness centers and spinning-class boutiques reopening, there was less of a need to make a four-figure investment in a home-based proxy for the real thing.Things got worse. It had to recall its treadmill after a few tragic accidents involving young children and pets. Recently the premiere of the Sex in the City spin off And Just Like That killed off a main character after a Peloton workout, even if Peloton did recover from that by quickly turning around a brilliant counter ad.Financially speaking, Peloton is in a funk. It has now clocked in with consecutive financial reports of sequential declines in total workout sessions and revenue after a couple of years of triple-digit top-line growth. Guidance is also problematic and uninspiring. The stock continued to sell off this month, hitting a new 52-week low on Tuesday. Investors are tax-loss harvesting, and portfolio managers are window dressing.But why is no one paying attention to the rapid surge of COVID-19 cases? With a fifth surge picking up steam, we might not be canceling our connected-fitness Peloton subscriptions anytime soon.2. Voyager DigitalYou won't find too many publicly traded companies growing faster than Voyager Digital. The cryptocurrency platform saw its organic revenue soar 3,280% in its latest quarter, and that follows growth of 15,122% in its fiscal 2021 that ended in June. These aren't typos. It surpassed a million total funded accounts last month, and the money's adding up quickly. Voyager has seen its total assets under management grow from $2.6 billion at the end of June to $4.3 billion at the end of September to just shy of $7 billion by mid-November.Voyager isn't a trading exchange itself. It outsources customer orders through a dozen exchanges and market makers. It doesn't tack on a commission, but Voyager does get a piece of the action if its smart order-routing platform is able to deliver a better price than quoted. The star attraction is that it lets crypto traders earn as much as 12% in annualized interest on their idle tokens and coins.Growth will inevitably decelerate now that it has a much larger account base, but analysts also see it becoming profitable this fiscal year. As long as cryptocurrencies remain popular and Voyager keeps striking smart platform-widening deals, the stock has plenty of upside from its current $2.5 billion market cap.3. Camping WorldYou can get big growth and a juicy dividend in the same spoonful. Camping World operates a chain of superstores that sell recreational vehicles (RVs) and related essentials. It's the top dog, and it's perpetually widening its lead by buying smaller regional players.Business started to pick up around May of last year, as folks realized that the pandemic was going to be around for some time and that they needed a way to travel safely over Memorial Day weekend, the upcoming summer season, and beyond.Its business continues to roll. Camping World has rattled off five consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, including a 14% gain in its latest report. Sustainable interest in RVs (including from retirees, the affluent, and folks realizing that the future of hybrid workplaces means being able to travel across the country while keeping a job) and rising prices for new and -- in particular -- used homes on wheels keep the market driving forward. Margins are widening, and net income rose 22% in Camping World's latest quarter.Now we get to the good stuff. Spell out the thesis for Camping World and you wouldn't expect to find a stock selling for just six times forward earnings. You also wouldn't expect an investment that recently doubled its quarterly dividend payout, now yielding 5%. We're already lapping the start of the double-digit growth. If Camping World can keep surprising the market with its resiliency, this is a stock that can pop fivefold and still be reasonably priced. Find the keys. Take it out for a test drive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PTON":0.9,"VYGVF":0.9,"CWH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}