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2021-04-03

[鬼脸]

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2021-04-03

[开心]

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

2021-03-31

[惊讶]

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2021-03-18

[得意]

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2021-03-16

[开心]

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2021-03-11

[白眼]

If You Invested $1,000 In Tesla 10 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have Now<blockquote>如果您10年前在特斯拉投资1,000美元，那么您现在拥有的金额如下</blockquote>

2021-03-10

[财迷]

Here’s what the 2016 value rally says about how far the current advance can go<blockquote>以下是2016年价值反弹对当前上涨能走多远的说明</blockquote>

2021-03-06

[流泪]

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2021-03-04

[财迷]

3 Stocks Ready to Bounce Back in March<blockquote>3只股票准备在3月份反弹</blockquote>

2021-02-28

[微笑]

Why NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote>

2021-02-28

[流泪]

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2021-02-24

😒

The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>

2021-02-24

[难过]

The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>

2021-02-22

🤯

Who Rules the Cloud? The Answer Is Hazy.<blockquote>谁统治云？答案是模糊的。</blockquote>

2021-02-20

🥸

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2021-02-17

🥺

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2021-02-15

😑

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2021-02-14

😩

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2021-02-14

😶

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20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均值，即使有些人的投资基于历史上发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均值，即使有些人的投资基于历史上发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354500099,"gmtCreate":1617183541411,"gmtModify":1634522217695,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568770848498679","authorIdStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354500099","repostId":"2123223218","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327801119,"gmtCreate":1616074695431,"gmtModify":1634527374813,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568770848498679","authorIdStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327801119","repostId":"1114091354","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325658159,"gmtCreate":1615897215371,"gmtModify":1703494643538,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568770848498679","authorIdStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325658159","repostId":"2119786479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328086161,"gmtCreate":1615474783653,"gmtModify":1703489656929,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568770848498679","authorIdStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[白眼]&nbsp;","listText":"[白眼]&nbsp;","text":"[白眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328086161","repostId":"2118677018","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2118677018","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1615472839,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2118677018?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 22:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If You Invested $1,000 In Tesla 10 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have Now<blockquote>如果您10年前在特斯拉投资1,000美元，那么您现在拥有的金额如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118677018","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Have you ever thought about what your returns would be today if you invested in Tesla Motors  10 years ago?Tesla Motors is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company that was founded and incorporated on July 1, 2003, by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Elon Musk was an early investor in Tesla and has served as the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors since 2008.This company specializes in building electric cars, solar and integrated renewable energy solutions for homes and bu","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c434325fc9d83bd73e4dee58168cecf\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Have you ever thought about what your returns would be today if you invested in Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) 10 years ago? Tesla Motors is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company that was founded and incorporated on July 1, 2003, by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Elon Musk was an early investor in Tesla and has served as the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors since 2008.</p><p><blockquote>您有没有想过，如果您10年前投资特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA），您今天的回报会是多少？特斯拉是一家美国电动汽车和清洁能源公司，由Martin Eberhard和Marc Tarpenning于2003年7月1日创立并注册。Elon Musk是特斯拉的早期投资者，自2008年以来一直担任特斯拉的首席执行官和产品架构师。</blockquote></p><p> This company specializes in building electric cars, solar and integrated renewable energy solutions for homes and businesses. Tesla is the world's best-selling plug-in and battery electric passenger car manufacturer. Tesla Motors has headquartered in Palo Alto, California, and builds many of its vehicle components in-house, such as batteries, motors, and software.</p><p><blockquote>该公司专门为家庭和企业制造电动汽车、太阳能和集成可再生能源解决方案。特斯拉是全球最畅销的插电式和电池电动乘用车制造商。特斯拉总部位于加州帕罗奥图，许多汽车零部件都是在内部制造的，如电池、电机和软件。</blockquote></p><p> In 2010 Tesla Motors purchased the Tesla factory for 42 million in Fremont California. Tesla went on to launch its first initial public offering (IPO) on NASDAQ on June 29, 2010. They issued 13.3 million shares of common stock for the public at a price of $17.00 per share.</p><p><blockquote>2010年，特斯拉以4200万美元的价格收购了特斯拉工厂。2010年6月29日，特斯拉在纳斯达克进行了首次公开募股（IPO）。他们以每股17.00美元的价格向公众发行了1330万股普通股。</blockquote></p><p> On March 8th, 2011 Tesla shares were sold at an opening price of $4.92 per share. Now a decade later the Tesla share price has skyrocketed up to $563 per share. If you'd invested 1,000 in Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) on March 7, 2011, today that investment would be worth $119,829.66. Your total profit from that investment today would equal $118,829.66 with an annual return of 61.26%.</p><p><blockquote>2011年3月8日，特斯拉股票以每股4.92美元的开盘价出售。十年后的今天，特斯拉股价已飙升至每股563美元。如果您在2011年3月7日向特斯拉(TSLA)投资1,000美元，那么今天该投资将价值119,829.66美元。您今天从该投资中获得的总利润将等于118,829.66美元，年回报率为61.26%。</blockquote></p><p> Back in August, they announced a stock split and since then share prices have increased by nearly 200% on a split-adjusted basis. The overall share price has been steadily increasing over the past few years.</p><p><blockquote>早在8月份，他们就宣布进行股票分割，此后股价在分割调整后上涨了近200%。过去几年，整体股价一直在稳步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, Tesla's global sales reached an all-time high of 499,550 units with a 35.8% increase over the previous year. Tesla broke the record for the greatest value of any American automaker after reaching a market capitalization of $86 billion on January 20th, 2020. Tesla shot up 743% in 2020 alone and their share price reached a peak of $900 at the start of this year.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，特斯拉全球销量达到499,550辆的历史新高，比上年增长35.8%。特斯拉在2020年1月20日市值达到860亿美元后，打破了美国汽车制造商的最大市值纪录。特斯拉仅在2020年就飙升了743%，其股价在今年年初达到了900美元的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Since reaching that peak back in January, Tesla share prices have dropped by around 38%. Tesla shares have been down by about 16% so far this year. Tesla has definitely had its struggles but the company expects to increase its productivity and volume by 50% each year in the near future. Every stock has had its ups and downs but Tesla Motors has grown to become <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the top electric car manufacturers in the world.</p><p><blockquote>自1月份达到峰值以来，特斯拉股价已下跌约38%。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约16%。特斯拉确实遇到了困难，但该公司预计在不久的将来每年将其生产力和销量提高50%。每只股票都有起起落落，但特斯拉已经成长为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>世界顶级电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If You Invested $1,000 In Tesla 10 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have Now<blockquote>如果您10年前在特斯拉投资1,000美元，那么您现在拥有的金额如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf You Invested $1,000 In Tesla 10 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have Now<blockquote>如果您10年前在特斯拉投资1,000美元，那么您现在拥有的金额如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-11 22:27</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c434325fc9d83bd73e4dee58168cecf\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Have you ever thought about what your returns would be today if you invested in Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) 10 years ago? Tesla Motors is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company that was founded and incorporated on July 1, 2003, by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Elon Musk was an early investor in Tesla and has served as the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors since 2008.</p><p><blockquote>您有没有想过，如果您10年前投资特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA），您今天的回报会是多少？特斯拉是一家美国电动汽车和清洁能源公司，由Martin Eberhard和Marc Tarpenning于2003年7月1日创立并注册。Elon Musk是特斯拉的早期投资者，自2008年以来一直担任特斯拉的首席执行官和产品架构师。</blockquote></p><p> This company specializes in building electric cars, solar and integrated renewable energy solutions for homes and businesses. Tesla is the world's best-selling plug-in and battery electric passenger car manufacturer. Tesla Motors has headquartered in Palo Alto, California, and builds many of its vehicle components in-house, such as batteries, motors, and software.</p><p><blockquote>该公司专门为家庭和企业制造电动汽车、太阳能和集成可再生能源解决方案。特斯拉是全球最畅销的插电式和电池电动乘用车制造商。特斯拉总部位于加州帕罗奥图，许多汽车零部件都是在内部制造的，如电池、电机和软件。</blockquote></p><p> In 2010 Tesla Motors purchased the Tesla factory for 42 million in Fremont California. Tesla went on to launch its first initial public offering (IPO) on NASDAQ on June 29, 2010. They issued 13.3 million shares of common stock for the public at a price of $17.00 per share.</p><p><blockquote>2010年，特斯拉以4200万美元的价格收购了特斯拉工厂。2010年6月29日，特斯拉在纳斯达克进行了首次公开募股（IPO）。他们以每股17.00美元的价格向公众发行了1330万股普通股。</blockquote></p><p> On March 8th, 2011 Tesla shares were sold at an opening price of $4.92 per share. Now a decade later the Tesla share price has skyrocketed up to $563 per share. If you'd invested 1,000 in Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) on March 7, 2011, today that investment would be worth $119,829.66. Your total profit from that investment today would equal $118,829.66 with an annual return of 61.26%.</p><p><blockquote>2011年3月8日，特斯拉股票以每股4.92美元的开盘价出售。十年后的今天，特斯拉股价已飙升至每股563美元。如果您在2011年3月7日向特斯拉(TSLA)投资1,000美元，那么今天该投资将价值119,829.66美元。您今天从该投资中获得的总利润将等于118,829.66美元，年回报率为61.26%。</blockquote></p><p> Back in August, they announced a stock split and since then share prices have increased by nearly 200% on a split-adjusted basis. The overall share price has been steadily increasing over the past few years.</p><p><blockquote>早在8月份，他们就宣布进行股票分割，此后股价在分割调整后上涨了近200%。过去几年，整体股价一直在稳步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, Tesla's global sales reached an all-time high of 499,550 units with a 35.8% increase over the previous year. Tesla broke the record for the greatest value of any American automaker after reaching a market capitalization of $86 billion on January 20th, 2020. Tesla shot up 743% in 2020 alone and their share price reached a peak of $900 at the start of this year.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，特斯拉全球销量达到499,550辆的历史新高，比上年增长35.8%。特斯拉在2020年1月20日市值达到860亿美元后，打破了美国汽车制造商的最大市值纪录。特斯拉仅在2020年就飙升了743%，其股价在今年年初达到了900美元的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Since reaching that peak back in January, Tesla share prices have dropped by around 38%. Tesla shares have been down by about 16% so far this year. Tesla has definitely had its struggles but the company expects to increase its productivity and volume by 50% each year in the near future. Every stock has had its ups and downs but Tesla Motors has grown to become <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the top electric car manufacturers in the world.</p><p><blockquote>自1月份达到峰值以来，特斯拉股价已下跌约38%。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约16%。特斯拉确实遇到了困难，但该公司预计在不久的将来每年将其生产力和销量提高50%。每只股票都有起起落落，但特斯拉已经成长为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>世界顶级电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2118677018","content_text":"Have you ever thought about what your returns would be today if you invested in Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) 10 years ago? Tesla Motors is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company that was founded and incorporated on July 1, 2003, by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Elon Musk was an early investor in Tesla and has served as the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors since 2008.\nThis company specializes in building electric cars, solar and integrated renewable energy solutions for homes and businesses. Tesla is the world's best-selling plug-in and battery electric passenger car manufacturer. Tesla Motors has headquartered in Palo Alto, California, and builds many of its vehicle components in-house, such as batteries, motors, and software.\nIn 2010 Tesla Motors purchased the Tesla factory for 42 million in Fremont California. Tesla went on to launch its first initial public offering (IPO) on NASDAQ on June 29, 2010. They issued 13.3 million shares of common stock for the public at a price of $17.00 per share.\nOn March 8th, 2011 Tesla shares were sold at an opening price of $4.92 per share. Now a decade later the Tesla share price has skyrocketed up to $563 per share. If you'd invested 1,000 in Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) on March 7, 2011, today that investment would be worth $119,829.66. Your total profit from that investment today would equal $118,829.66 with an annual return of 61.26%.\nBack in August, they announced a stock split and since then share prices have increased by nearly 200% on a split-adjusted basis. The overall share price has been steadily increasing over the past few years.\nIn 2020, Tesla's global sales reached an all-time high of 499,550 units with a 35.8% increase over the previous year. Tesla broke the record for the greatest value of any American automaker after reaching a market capitalization of $86 billion on January 20th, 2020. Tesla shot up 743% in 2020 alone and their share price reached a peak of $900 at the start of this year.\nSince reaching that peak back in January, Tesla share prices have dropped by around 38%. Tesla shares have been down by about 16% so far this year. Tesla has definitely had its struggles but the company expects to increase its productivity and volume by 50% each year in the near future. Every stock has had its ups and downs but Tesla Motors has grown to become one of the top electric car manufacturers in the world.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323762538,"gmtCreate":1615377771924,"gmtModify":1703488109217,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568770848498679","authorIdStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323762538","repostId":"1119259036","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119259036","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615377621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119259036?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-10 20:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s what the 2016 value rally says about how far the current advance can go<blockquote>以下是2016年价值反弹对当前上涨能走多远的说明</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119259036","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Call it revenge of the bonds — or the tech bros.\nA nearly 5 basis point decline in the yield of the ","content":"<p>Call it revenge of the bonds — or the tech bros.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权it对债券的复仇——或科技兄弟。</blockquote></p><p> A nearly 5 basis point decline in the yield of the 10-year Treasury&nbsp;sparked huge gains for the recently out-of-favor technology sector, with the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;registering its largest one-day advance since the U.S. election, and the ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;surging over 10%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率下跌近5个基点，引发近期失宠的科技板块大幅上涨，纳斯达克综合指数创下美国大选以来最大单日涨幅，ARK Innovation ETF飙升逾10%。</blockquote></p><p> What was notable was that financials struggled — the SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF&nbsp;ended 1.5% lower — but not to the same degree that techs thrived.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，金融股陷入困境——SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF收盘下跌1.5%——但与科技股的繁荣程度不同。</blockquote></p><p> Portfolio strategists at Bernstein Research, led by Sarah McCarthy, say the two might not be yin and yang for much longer. “The momentum selloff is largely done. It is no longer as expensive, and the composition has changed due to the rotation. It no longer represents an extreme tech vs financials exposure. Momentum is now long cyclicals, with a much more balanced sector exposure,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>以莎拉·麦卡锡(Sarah McCarthy)为首的伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)的投资组合策略师表示，这两者可能不会持续太久。“动量抛售已基本结束。它不再那么昂贵，而且由于轮换，成分也发生了变化。它不再代表科技股与金融股的极端敞口。动量现在是长周期的，行业敞口更加平衡，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> The value rally, however, can continue, being driven by continuously increasing yields and inflation expectations. Value does best in the recovery part of the cycle, and struggles in the expansion part.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在收益率和通胀预期持续上升的推动下，价值反弹可能会持续下去。价值在周期的复苏部分表现最好，而在扩张部分则表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cc621467919bb2a3ad6d2f61b186719\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"681\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> McCarthy says the 2016 rally in value gives clues as to how long the current rally can last. In 2016, it ended as soon as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>麦卡锡表示，2016年的价值反弹为当前的反弹能持续多久提供了线索。2016年，美联储一加息就结束了。</blockquote></p><p> “Nominal yields, the yield curve and real yields steepened in the second half of 2016 in anticipation of the Fed raising rates — similar to what we are seeing now. If this is the case, then there could be a lot further to go (at the last Fed meeting, most members did not project rates increasing until beyond 2023),” she says.</p><p><blockquote>“由于预期美联储加息，名义收益率、收益率曲线和实际收益率在2016年下半年变得陡峭——与我们现在看到的情况类似。如果是这样的话，那么可能还有很长的路要走（在上次美联储会议上，大多数成员预计要到2023年之后才会加息），”她表示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32e0a1a4314a02024103b162ffb4e89\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"913\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Banks stocks are at the heart of the value trade, and there is further outperformance to go if they are to make up for the loss over the past 12 months, McCarthy says.</p><p><blockquote>麦卡锡表示，银行股是价值交易的核心，如果它们要弥补过去12个月的损失，还需要进一步表现出色。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s what the 2016 value rally says about how far the current advance can go<blockquote>以下是2016年价值反弹对当前上涨能走多远的说明</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s what the 2016 value rally says about how far the current advance can go<blockquote>以下是2016年价值反弹对当前上涨能走多远的说明</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-10 20:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Call it revenge of the bonds — or the tech bros.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权it对债券的复仇——或科技兄弟。</blockquote></p><p> A nearly 5 basis point decline in the yield of the 10-year Treasury&nbsp;sparked huge gains for the recently out-of-favor technology sector, with the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;registering its largest one-day advance since the U.S. election, and the ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;surging over 10%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率下跌近5个基点，引发近期失宠的科技板块大幅上涨，纳斯达克综合指数创下美国大选以来最大单日涨幅，ARK Innovation ETF飙升逾10%。</blockquote></p><p> What was notable was that financials struggled — the SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF&nbsp;ended 1.5% lower — but not to the same degree that techs thrived.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，金融股陷入困境——SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF收盘下跌1.5%——但与科技股的繁荣程度不同。</blockquote></p><p> Portfolio strategists at Bernstein Research, led by Sarah McCarthy, say the two might not be yin and yang for much longer. “The momentum selloff is largely done. It is no longer as expensive, and the composition has changed due to the rotation. It no longer represents an extreme tech vs financials exposure. Momentum is now long cyclicals, with a much more balanced sector exposure,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>以莎拉·麦卡锡(Sarah McCarthy)为首的伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)的投资组合策略师表示，这两者可能不会持续太久。“动量抛售已基本结束。它不再那么昂贵，而且由于轮换，成分也发生了变化。它不再代表科技股与金融股的极端敞口。动量现在是长周期的，行业敞口更加平衡，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> The value rally, however, can continue, being driven by continuously increasing yields and inflation expectations. Value does best in the recovery part of the cycle, and struggles in the expansion part.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在收益率和通胀预期持续上升的推动下，价值反弹可能会持续下去。价值在周期的复苏部分表现最好，而在扩张部分则表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cc621467919bb2a3ad6d2f61b186719\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"681\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> McCarthy says the 2016 rally in value gives clues as to how long the current rally can last. In 2016, it ended as soon as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>麦卡锡表示，2016年的价值反弹为当前的反弹能持续多久提供了线索。2016年，美联储一加息就结束了。</blockquote></p><p> “Nominal yields, the yield curve and real yields steepened in the second half of 2016 in anticipation of the Fed raising rates — similar to what we are seeing now. If this is the case, then there could be a lot further to go (at the last Fed meeting, most members did not project rates increasing until beyond 2023),” she says.</p><p><blockquote>“由于预期美联储加息，名义收益率、收益率曲线和实际收益率在2016年下半年变得陡峭——与我们现在看到的情况类似。如果是这样的话，那么可能还有很长的路要走（在上次美联储会议上，大多数成员预计要到2023年之后才会加息），”她表示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32e0a1a4314a02024103b162ffb4e89\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"913\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Banks stocks are at the heart of the value trade, and there is further outperformance to go if they are to make up for the loss over the past 12 months, McCarthy says.</p><p><blockquote>麦卡锡表示，银行股是价值交易的核心，如果它们要弥补过去12个月的损失，还需要进一步表现出色。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-2016-value-rally-says-about-how-far-the-current-advance-can-go-11615372066?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-2016-value-rally-says-about-how-far-the-current-advance-can-go-11615372066?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1119259036","content_text":"Call it revenge of the bonds — or the tech bros.\nA nearly 5 basis point decline in the yield of the 10-year Treasury sparked huge gains for the recently out-of-favor technology sector, with the Nasdaq Composite registering its largest one-day advance since the U.S. election, and the ARK Innovation ETF surging over 10%.\nWhat was notable was that financials struggled — the SPDR S&P Bank ETF ended 1.5% lower — but not to the same degree that techs thrived.\nPortfolio strategists at Bernstein Research, led by Sarah McCarthy, say the two might not be yin and yang for much longer. “The momentum selloff is largely done. It is no longer as expensive, and the composition has changed due to the rotation. It no longer represents an extreme tech vs financials exposure. Momentum is now long cyclicals, with a much more balanced sector exposure,” she says.\nThe value rally, however, can continue, being driven by continuously increasing yields and inflation expectations. Value does best in the recovery part of the cycle, and struggles in the expansion part.\n\nMcCarthy says the 2016 rally in value gives clues as to how long the current rally can last. In 2016, it ended as soon as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates.\n“Nominal yields, the yield curve and real yields steepened in the second half of 2016 in anticipation of the Fed raising rates — similar to what we are seeing now. If this is the case, then there could be a lot further to go (at the last Fed meeting, most members did not project rates increasing until beyond 2023),” she says.\n\nBanks stocks are at the heart of the value trade, and there is further outperformance to go if they are to make up for the loss over the past 12 months, McCarthy says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ARKK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320319426,"gmtCreate":1615013599265,"gmtModify":1703484238398,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568770848498679","authorIdStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320319426","repostId":"2117632277","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364516338,"gmtCreate":1614863988424,"gmtModify":1703482146663,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568770848498679","authorIdStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364516338","repostId":"1177763037","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177763037","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614845960,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177763037?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 16:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks Ready to Bounce Back in March<blockquote>3只股票准备在3月份反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177763037","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Some stocks that perhaps flew too high, too soon have been on sharp descents lately. Shares ofPeloto","content":"<p>Some stocks that perhaps flew too high, too soon have been on sharp descents lately. Shares of<b>Peloton Interactive</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:PTON),<b>Zoom Video Communications</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:ZM), and<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)were market darlings just a couple of weeks ago. Sentiment has turned in the recent market correction, and all three of them are now trading at least 20% below their all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>一些可能飞得太高、太快的股票最近却大幅下跌。本公司之股份<b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克：PTON），<b>Zoom Video通信公司</b>（纳斯达克：ZM），以及<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）就在几周前还是市场的宠儿。在最近的市场调整中，市场情绪发生了转变，这三家公司目前的交易价格都比历史高点低了至少20%。</blockquote></p><p> It won't always be that way. All three have the right ingredients to get back on track. Let's see why this trio of stocks can hit fresh highs later this year, thumping the market yet again in the process.</p><p><blockquote>不会一直这样的。这三者都具备重回正轨的正确要素。让我们看看为什么这三只股票能够在今年晚些时候创下新高，并在此过程中再次冲击市场。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Peloton Interactive</p><p><blockquote>1.Peloton互动</blockquote></p><p> The first two names have a lot in common. Peloton and Zoom Video became poster children of the new normal during the early stages of the pandemic, only to be discarded when the COVID-19 vaccines started hitting the market. Let's take Peloton for a spin first.</p><p><blockquote>前两个名字有很多共同点。在大流行的早期阶段，Peloton和Zoom Video成为新常态的典型代表，但当COVID-19疫苗开始上市时，它们就被抛弃了。我们先带Peloton兜一圈。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton exploded as the high-end fitness platform at home. Its treadmills became the worthy substitute to fitness center workouts. Its even more popular stationary bikes replaced local spinning class boutiques.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton爆火成为国内高端健身平台。它的跑步机成为健身中心锻炼的当之无愧的替代品。它更受欢迎的固定自行车取代了当地的动感单车精品店。</blockquote></p><p> Growth has been tremendous. Peloton connected fitness subscribers have soared 134% to 1.67 million members. Its cheaper digital subscriptions for folks that lack Peloton hardware is a much smaller business, but it's growing even faster. Peloton's now topping $1 billion in revenue every quarter, and it's not done working up a sweat.</p><p><blockquote>增长是巨大的。Peloton connected fitness订阅用户飙升134%，达到167万。它为缺乏Peloton硬件的人提供更便宜的数字订阅业务规模要小得多，但增长速度更快。Peloton现在每个季度的收入都超过10亿美元，而且还没有完成努力。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton isn't going anywhere once the public health crisis abates, largely because this was one pandemic play that legitimately improved on the original it was replacing. Peloton's interactive sessions are convenient and productive. The proof is in the pudding. Investors may have rotated out of Peloton shares; the stock is 31% off of January's peak. But workout seekers see things differently. Demand continues to outstrip supply even with vaccines on the market. The order backlog is still several weeks for new orders.</p><p><blockquote>一旦公共卫生危机减弱，Peloton就不会去任何地方，很大程度上是因为这是一部疫情剧，在它所取代的原版基础上进行了合理的改进。Peloton的互动会议既方便又富有成效。证据就在布丁里。投资者可能已经退出Peloton股票；该股较1月份的峰值下跌了31%。但是寻求锻炼的人有不同的看法。即使市场上有疫苗，需求仍然超过供应。新订单的订单积压仍有几周时间。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Zoom</p><p><blockquote>2.缩放</blockquote></p><p> Tuesday was -- well --weird for Zoom stock. The videoconferencing speedster opened 7% higher after serving up a monster quarter, only to shed 15% of its value throughout the trading day to close Tuesday out with a 9% decline.</p><p><blockquote>周二对于Zoom股票来说很奇怪。这家视频会议speedster在经历了一个巨大的季度后开盘上涨7%，但整个交易日股价下跌15%，周二收盘下跌9%。</blockquote></p><p> Results for its fiscal fourth quarter were stellar. Revenue skyrocketed 369% to hit $882.5 million. If you think that's a big number, adjusted operating income and earnings per share soared 840% and 713%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>其第四财季的业绩非常出色。收入猛增369%，达到8.825亿美元。如果你认为这是一个很大的数字，调整后的营业收入和每股收益分别飙升了840%和713%。</blockquote></p><p> Growth will undeniably decelerate at this point. Zoom issued guidance for the new fiscal 2022 year, and it sees revenue climbing 42% to $3.77 billion, with adjusted earnings rising a modest 8% to $3.62 a share. If Zoom's guidance sounds like a good reason to dump the stock, keep in mind that before the report analysts were expecting Zoom to earn less than $3 a share in the new fiscal year. It's not going away post-pandemic. Zoom is part of our lives now, and the stock's a bargain at a 37% discount to its October high-water mark.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，增长将在这一点上减速。Zoom发布了2022财年新指引，预计收入将增长42%至37.7亿美元，调整后收益将小幅增长8%至每股3.62美元。如果Zoom的指引听起来像是抛售该股的好理由，请记住，在报告发布之前，分析师预计Zoom在新财年的每股收益将低于3美元。大流行后，它不会消失。Zoom现在已成为我们生活的一部分，该股比10月份的高点低37%，非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Tesla</p><p><blockquote>3.特斯拉</blockquote></p><p> Investors are allowed to change their minds -- and their wheels. In January, I singled Tesla out asa stock to avoid. A month later, I finally owned my first Tesla vehicle and became a shareholder for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以改变他们的想法和他们的轮子。一月份，我特别指出特斯拉是一只值得回避的股票。一个月后，我终于拥有了我的第一辆特斯拉汽车，第一次成为了股东。</blockquote></p><p> \"Tesla isn't going to relinquish its pole position in the ascending electric vehicle market,\" I argued in late January. \"It will keep making its mark, and the revolution is real. The $837 billion market cap is what worries me here.\"</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉不会放弃其在不断上升的电动汽车市场中的领先地位，”我在一月底表示。“它将继续留下印记，革命是真实的。8370亿美元的市值是我担心的。”</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's market cap had peaked at $864 million two days earlier when its shares briefly topped the $900 mark. The stock is trading 24% lower as of Tuesday's close.</p><p><blockquote>两天前，特斯拉的市值曾达到8.64亿美元的峰值，当时其股价短暂突破900美元大关。截至周二收盘，该股下跌24%。</blockquote></p><p> Legacy automakers are making big moves in going electric, and there are potential new entrants in this niche that bear watching. The problem for them is that they're not Tesla. They lack the full self-driving tech where a car can literally drive itself from a freeway onramp to the desired exit. They lack the proprietary network of more than 20,000 Supercharger stations to eat away at range anxiety.</p><p><blockquote>传统汽车制造商正在电动化方面采取重大举措，并且在这一利基市场中存在值得关注的潜在新进入者。他们的问题是他们不是特斯拉。他们缺乏全自动驾驶技术，汽车可以从高速公路入口自动行驶到所需的出口。他们缺乏由20,000多个超级充电站组成的专有网络来消除里程焦虑。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla turned profitable in 2020 and posted a 6.3% operating margin. It produced and delivered a half million cars. The more economical Model 3 and Model Y are driving the surge in volume, but earlier this year Tesla updated its higher-end cars. Some might still not consider Tesla a bargain with its $659 billion market cap, but momentum is on its side.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在2020年实现盈利，营业利润率为6.3%。它生产并交付了50万辆汽车。更经济的Model 3和Model Y正在推动销量激增，但今年早些时候特斯拉更新了其高端汽车。有些人可能仍然不认为特斯拉的市值为6590亿美元，但势头是站在它这边的。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton, Zoom, and Tesla are down, but they're not out. All three stocks should bounce back in March and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton、Zoom和特斯拉都倒下了，但他们并没有出局。这三只股票应该会在三月份及以后反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks Ready to Bounce Back in March<blockquote>3只股票准备在3月份反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks Ready to Bounce Back in March<blockquote>3只股票准备在3月份反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 16:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some stocks that perhaps flew too high, too soon have been on sharp descents lately. Shares of<b>Peloton Interactive</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:PTON),<b>Zoom Video Communications</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:ZM), and<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)were market darlings just a couple of weeks ago. Sentiment has turned in the recent market correction, and all three of them are now trading at least 20% below their all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>一些可能飞得太高、太快的股票最近却大幅下跌。本公司之股份<b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克：PTON），<b>Zoom Video通信公司</b>（纳斯达克：ZM），以及<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）就在几周前还是市场的宠儿。在最近的市场调整中，市场情绪发生了转变，这三家公司目前的交易价格都比历史高点低了至少20%。</blockquote></p><p> It won't always be that way. All three have the right ingredients to get back on track. Let's see why this trio of stocks can hit fresh highs later this year, thumping the market yet again in the process.</p><p><blockquote>不会一直这样的。这三者都具备重回正轨的正确要素。让我们看看为什么这三只股票能够在今年晚些时候创下新高，并在此过程中再次冲击市场。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Peloton Interactive</p><p><blockquote>1.Peloton互动</blockquote></p><p> The first two names have a lot in common. Peloton and Zoom Video became poster children of the new normal during the early stages of the pandemic, only to be discarded when the COVID-19 vaccines started hitting the market. Let's take Peloton for a spin first.</p><p><blockquote>前两个名字有很多共同点。在大流行的早期阶段，Peloton和Zoom Video成为新常态的典型代表，但当COVID-19疫苗开始上市时，它们就被抛弃了。我们先带Peloton兜一圈。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton exploded as the high-end fitness platform at home. Its treadmills became the worthy substitute to fitness center workouts. Its even more popular stationary bikes replaced local spinning class boutiques.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton爆火成为国内高端健身平台。它的跑步机成为健身中心锻炼的当之无愧的替代品。它更受欢迎的固定自行车取代了当地的动感单车精品店。</blockquote></p><p> Growth has been tremendous. Peloton connected fitness subscribers have soared 134% to 1.67 million members. Its cheaper digital subscriptions for folks that lack Peloton hardware is a much smaller business, but it's growing even faster. Peloton's now topping $1 billion in revenue every quarter, and it's not done working up a sweat.</p><p><blockquote>增长是巨大的。Peloton connected fitness订阅用户飙升134%，达到167万。它为缺乏Peloton硬件的人提供更便宜的数字订阅业务规模要小得多，但增长速度更快。Peloton现在每个季度的收入都超过10亿美元，而且还没有完成努力。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton isn't going anywhere once the public health crisis abates, largely because this was one pandemic play that legitimately improved on the original it was replacing. Peloton's interactive sessions are convenient and productive. The proof is in the pudding. Investors may have rotated out of Peloton shares; the stock is 31% off of January's peak. But workout seekers see things differently. Demand continues to outstrip supply even with vaccines on the market. The order backlog is still several weeks for new orders.</p><p><blockquote>一旦公共卫生危机减弱，Peloton就不会去任何地方，很大程度上是因为这是一部疫情剧，在它所取代的原版基础上进行了合理的改进。Peloton的互动会议既方便又富有成效。证据就在布丁里。投资者可能已经退出Peloton股票；该股较1月份的峰值下跌了31%。但是寻求锻炼的人有不同的看法。即使市场上有疫苗，需求仍然超过供应。新订单的订单积压仍有几周时间。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Zoom</p><p><blockquote>2.缩放</blockquote></p><p> Tuesday was -- well --weird for Zoom stock. The videoconferencing speedster opened 7% higher after serving up a monster quarter, only to shed 15% of its value throughout the trading day to close Tuesday out with a 9% decline.</p><p><blockquote>周二对于Zoom股票来说很奇怪。这家视频会议speedster在经历了一个巨大的季度后开盘上涨7%，但整个交易日股价下跌15%，周二收盘下跌9%。</blockquote></p><p> Results for its fiscal fourth quarter were stellar. Revenue skyrocketed 369% to hit $882.5 million. If you think that's a big number, adjusted operating income and earnings per share soared 840% and 713%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>其第四财季的业绩非常出色。收入猛增369%，达到8.825亿美元。如果你认为这是一个很大的数字，调整后的营业收入和每股收益分别飙升了840%和713%。</blockquote></p><p> Growth will undeniably decelerate at this point. Zoom issued guidance for the new fiscal 2022 year, and it sees revenue climbing 42% to $3.77 billion, with adjusted earnings rising a modest 8% to $3.62 a share. If Zoom's guidance sounds like a good reason to dump the stock, keep in mind that before the report analysts were expecting Zoom to earn less than $3 a share in the new fiscal year. It's not going away post-pandemic. Zoom is part of our lives now, and the stock's a bargain at a 37% discount to its October high-water mark.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，增长将在这一点上减速。Zoom发布了2022财年新指引，预计收入将增长42%至37.7亿美元，调整后收益将小幅增长8%至每股3.62美元。如果Zoom的指引听起来像是抛售该股的好理由，请记住，在报告发布之前，分析师预计Zoom在新财年的每股收益将低于3美元。大流行后，它不会消失。Zoom现在已成为我们生活的一部分，该股比10月份的高点低37%，非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Tesla</p><p><blockquote>3.特斯拉</blockquote></p><p> Investors are allowed to change their minds -- and their wheels. In January, I singled Tesla out asa stock to avoid. A month later, I finally owned my first Tesla vehicle and became a shareholder for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以改变他们的想法和他们的轮子。一月份，我特别指出特斯拉是一只值得回避的股票。一个月后，我终于拥有了我的第一辆特斯拉汽车，第一次成为了股东。</blockquote></p><p> \"Tesla isn't going to relinquish its pole position in the ascending electric vehicle market,\" I argued in late January. \"It will keep making its mark, and the revolution is real. The $837 billion market cap is what worries me here.\"</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉不会放弃其在不断上升的电动汽车市场中的领先地位，”我在一月底表示。“它将继续留下印记，革命是真实的。8370亿美元的市值是我担心的。”</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's market cap had peaked at $864 million two days earlier when its shares briefly topped the $900 mark. The stock is trading 24% lower as of Tuesday's close.</p><p><blockquote>两天前，特斯拉的市值曾达到8.64亿美元的峰值，当时其股价短暂突破900美元大关。截至周二收盘，该股下跌24%。</blockquote></p><p> Legacy automakers are making big moves in going electric, and there are potential new entrants in this niche that bear watching. The problem for them is that they're not Tesla. They lack the full self-driving tech where a car can literally drive itself from a freeway onramp to the desired exit. They lack the proprietary network of more than 20,000 Supercharger stations to eat away at range anxiety.</p><p><blockquote>传统汽车制造商正在电动化方面采取重大举措，并且在这一利基市场中存在值得关注的潜在新进入者。他们的问题是他们不是特斯拉。他们缺乏全自动驾驶技术，汽车可以从高速公路入口自动行驶到所需的出口。他们缺乏由20,000多个超级充电站组成的专有网络来消除里程焦虑。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla turned profitable in 2020 and posted a 6.3% operating margin. It produced and delivered a half million cars. The more economical Model 3 and Model Y are driving the surge in volume, but earlier this year Tesla updated its higher-end cars. Some might still not consider Tesla a bargain with its $659 billion market cap, but momentum is on its side.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在2020年实现盈利，营业利润率为6.3%。它生产并交付了50万辆汽车。更经济的Model 3和Model Y正在推动销量激增，但今年早些时候特斯拉更新了其高端汽车。有些人可能仍然不认为特斯拉的市值为6590亿美元，但势头是站在它这边的。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton, Zoom, and Tesla are down, but they're not out. All three stocks should bounce back in March and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton、Zoom和特斯拉都倒下了，但他们并没有出局。这三只股票应该会在三月份及以后反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/03/3-stocks-ready-to-bounce-back-in-march/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/03/3-stocks-ready-to-bounce-back-in-march/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177763037","content_text":"Some stocks that perhaps flew too high, too soon have been on sharp descents lately. Shares ofPeloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON),Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM), andTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)were market darlings just a couple of weeks ago. Sentiment has turned in the recent market correction, and all three of them are now trading at least 20% below their all-time highs.\nIt won't always be that way. All three have the right ingredients to get back on track. Let's see why this trio of stocks can hit fresh highs later this year, thumping the market yet again in the process.\n1. Peloton Interactive\nThe first two names have a lot in common. Peloton and Zoom Video became poster children of the new normal during the early stages of the pandemic, only to be discarded when the COVID-19 vaccines started hitting the market. Let's take Peloton for a spin first.\nPeloton exploded as the high-end fitness platform at home. Its treadmills became the worthy substitute to fitness center workouts. Its even more popular stationary bikes replaced local spinning class boutiques.\nGrowth has been tremendous. Peloton connected fitness subscribers have soared 134% to 1.67 million members. Its cheaper digital subscriptions for folks that lack Peloton hardware is a much smaller business, but it's growing even faster. Peloton's now topping $1 billion in revenue every quarter, and it's not done working up a sweat.\nPeloton isn't going anywhere once the public health crisis abates, largely because this was one pandemic play that legitimately improved on the original it was replacing. Peloton's interactive sessions are convenient and productive. The proof is in the pudding. Investors may have rotated out of Peloton shares; the stock is 31% off of January's peak. But workout seekers see things differently. Demand continues to outstrip supply even with vaccines on the market. The order backlog is still several weeks for new orders.\n2. Zoom\nTuesday was -- well --weird for Zoom stock. The videoconferencing speedster opened 7% higher after serving up a monster quarter, only to shed 15% of its value throughout the trading day to close Tuesday out with a 9% decline.\nResults for its fiscal fourth quarter were stellar. Revenue skyrocketed 369% to hit $882.5 million. If you think that's a big number, adjusted operating income and earnings per share soared 840% and 713%, respectively.\nGrowth will undeniably decelerate at this point. Zoom issued guidance for the new fiscal 2022 year, and it sees revenue climbing 42% to $3.77 billion, with adjusted earnings rising a modest 8% to $3.62 a share. If Zoom's guidance sounds like a good reason to dump the stock, keep in mind that before the report analysts were expecting Zoom to earn less than $3 a share in the new fiscal year. It's not going away post-pandemic. Zoom is part of our lives now, and the stock's a bargain at a 37% discount to its October high-water mark.\n3. Tesla\nInvestors are allowed to change their minds -- and their wheels. In January, I singled Tesla out asa stock to avoid. A month later, I finally owned my first Tesla vehicle and became a shareholder for the first time.\n\"Tesla isn't going to relinquish its pole position in the ascending electric vehicle market,\" I argued in late January. \"It will keep making its mark, and the revolution is real. The $837 billion market cap is what worries me here.\"\nTesla's market cap had peaked at $864 million two days earlier when its shares briefly topped the $900 mark. The stock is trading 24% lower as of Tuesday's close.\nLegacy automakers are making big moves in going electric, and there are potential new entrants in this niche that bear watching. The problem for them is that they're not Tesla. They lack the full self-driving tech where a car can literally drive itself from a freeway onramp to the desired exit. They lack the proprietary network of more than 20,000 Supercharger stations to eat away at range anxiety.\nTesla turned profitable in 2020 and posted a 6.3% operating margin. It produced and delivered a half million cars. The more economical Model 3 and Model Y are driving the surge in volume, but earlier this year Tesla updated its higher-end cars. Some might still not consider Tesla a bargain with its $659 billion market cap, but momentum is on its side.\nPeloton, Zoom, and Tesla are down, but they're not out. All three stocks should bounce back in March and beyond.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"PTON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366262994,"gmtCreate":1614490734718,"gmtModify":1703477823207,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568770848498679","authorIdStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366262994","repostId":"1111681080","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111681080","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614323230,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111681080?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 15:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111681080","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.Many stocks in the electric-vehicle  sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker NIO is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.Fellow ChineseEV maker Li Auto reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode ","content":"<p>Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车同行的积极盈利并没有帮助该行业的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Many stocks in the electric-vehicle (EV) sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车（EV）行业的许多股票今天都在下跌，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来也不例外。随着2020年第四季度和全年收益的临近，周四股价下跌了10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Fellow ChineseEV maker&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode well for what NIO has to say when it reports on Monday, March 1.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商理想汽车今天公布了第四季度收益，但结果不应该吓到该行业的投资者。理想汽车公布了第四季度的意外利润，这对于蔚来在3月1日星期一发布报告时所说的话来说可能是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> But investors are knocking back stocks of these high fliers today after extended runs brought high valuations.</p><p><blockquote>但在长期上涨带来高估值后，投资者今天正在回调这些雄心勃勃的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Li Auto reported a surprise positive net income of $16.5 million for its fourth quarter. While NIO competes with LI Auto, the companies offer slightly different products. Li's One SUV was designed to serve a specific niche in China. It includes a small gasoline engine onboard that can be used to recharge its batteries, allowing for longer travel between charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车公布第四季度净利润出人意料地达到1650万美元。虽然蔚来与理想汽车竞争，但两家公司提供的产品略有不同。Li的One SUV是为中国特定的利基市场而设计的。它包括一个小型汽油发动机，可用于为电池充电，允许在充电站之间进行更长时间的旅行。</blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 7,225 vehicles&nbsp;in January 2021 and 17,353 in its fourth quarter. These represented 352% and 111% year-over-year gains, respectively. NIO recently announced its first luxury sedan, the ET7, which will also have a new longer-range battery option.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2021年1月交付了7,225辆汽车，第四季度交付了17,353辆汽车。同比分别增长352%和111%。蔚来最近宣布了其首款豪华轿车ET7，该车还将配备新的远程电池选项。</blockquote></p><p> Including today's drop, shares have already fallen more than 20% from highs earlier this year. NIO's earnings on Monday could help soothe investor anxiety over the stock's high valuation. But for now, a correction remains under way.</p><p><blockquote>包括今天的下跌在内，股价已较今年早些时候的高点下跌超过20%。蔚来周一的财报可能有助于缓解投资者对该股高估值的焦虑。但目前，调整仍在进行中。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 15:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车同行的积极盈利并没有帮助该行业的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Many stocks in the electric-vehicle (EV) sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车（EV）行业的许多股票今天都在下跌，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来也不例外。随着2020年第四季度和全年收益的临近，周四股价下跌了10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Fellow ChineseEV maker&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode well for what NIO has to say when it reports on Monday, March 1.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商理想汽车今天公布了第四季度收益，但结果不应该吓到该行业的投资者。理想汽车公布了第四季度的意外利润，这对于蔚来在3月1日星期一发布报告时所说的话来说可能是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> But investors are knocking back stocks of these high fliers today after extended runs brought high valuations.</p><p><blockquote>但在长期上涨带来高估值后，投资者今天正在回调这些雄心勃勃的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Li Auto reported a surprise positive net income of $16.5 million for its fourth quarter. While NIO competes with LI Auto, the companies offer slightly different products. Li's One SUV was designed to serve a specific niche in China. It includes a small gasoline engine onboard that can be used to recharge its batteries, allowing for longer travel between charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车公布第四季度净利润出人意料地达到1650万美元。虽然蔚来与理想汽车竞争，但两家公司提供的产品略有不同。Li的One SUV是为中国特定的利基市场而设计的。它包括一个小型汽油发动机，可用于为电池充电，允许在充电站之间进行更长时间的旅行。</blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 7,225 vehicles&nbsp;in January 2021 and 17,353 in its fourth quarter. These represented 352% and 111% year-over-year gains, respectively. NIO recently announced its first luxury sedan, the ET7, which will also have a new longer-range battery option.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2021年1月交付了7,225辆汽车，第四季度交付了17,353辆汽车。同比分别增长352%和111%。蔚来最近宣布了其首款豪华轿车ET7，该车还将配备新的远程电池选项。</blockquote></p><p> Including today's drop, shares have already fallen more than 20% from highs earlier this year. NIO's earnings on Monday could help soothe investor anxiety over the stock's high valuation. But for now, a correction remains under way.</p><p><blockquote>包括今天的下跌在内，股价已较今年早些时候的高点下跌超过20%。蔚来周一的财报可能有助于缓解投资者对该股高估值的焦虑。但目前，调整仍在进行中。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-nio-stock-dropped-thursday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-nio-stock-dropped-thursday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111681080","content_text":"Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.\nWhat happened\nMany stocks in the electric-vehicle (EV) sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker NIO is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.\nSo what\nFellow ChineseEV maker Li Auto reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode well for what NIO has to say when it reports on Monday, March 1.\nBut investors are knocking back stocks of these high fliers today after extended runs brought high valuations.\nNow what\nLi Auto reported a surprise positive net income of $16.5 million for its fourth quarter. While NIO competes with LI Auto, the companies offer slightly different products. Li's One SUV was designed to serve a specific niche in China. It includes a small gasoline engine onboard that can be used to recharge its batteries, allowing for longer travel between charging stations.\nNIO delivered 7,225 vehicles in January 2021 and 17,353 in its fourth quarter. These represented 352% and 111% year-over-year gains, respectively. NIO recently announced its first luxury sedan, the ET7, which will also have a new longer-range battery option.\nIncluding today's drop, shares have already fallen more than 20% from highs earlier this year. NIO's earnings on Monday could help soothe investor anxiety over the stock's high valuation. But for now, a correction remains under way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366262061,"gmtCreate":1614490711753,"gmtModify":1703477822869,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568770848498679","authorIdStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366262061","repostId":"2114320740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363768385,"gmtCreate":1614173806047,"gmtModify":1634550881180,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568770848498679","authorIdStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😒","listText":"😒","text":"😒","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363768385","repostId":"1197533827","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197533827","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614160523,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197533827?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 17:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197533827","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-199","content":"<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但在2001年，我们发出同样的文献，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 17:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但在2001年，我们发出同样的文献，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1197533827","content_text":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.\nIgnore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.\nChurchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”\nCCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.\nThey’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.\nReviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc. at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.\nMany questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.\nPiling into ARK\nThese days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.\nBut I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com. (I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):\n“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.\nLet me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”\nThe hangover\nTelecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.\nHere’s what George had to say in 2002:\n“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.\nMany of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.\nCCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"ARKK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363768017,"gmtCreate":1614173781539,"gmtModify":1634550881300,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568770848498679","authorIdStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[难过]&nbsp;","listText":"[难过]&nbsp;","text":"[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363768017","repostId":"1197533827","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197533827","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614160523,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197533827?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 17:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197533827","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-199","content":"<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但在2001年，我们发出同样的文献，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 17:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但在2001年，我们发出同样的文献，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1197533827","content_text":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.\nIgnore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.\nChurchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”\nCCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.\nThey’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.\nReviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc. at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.\nMany questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.\nPiling into ARK\nThese days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.\nBut I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com. (I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):\n“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.\nLet me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”\nThe hangover\nTelecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.\nHere’s what George had to say in 2002:\n“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.\nMany of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.\nCCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"ARKK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369934666,"gmtCreate":1613996372855,"gmtModify":1634551612057,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568770848498679","authorIdStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤯","listText":"🤯","text":"🤯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369934666","repostId":"1159991476","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1159991476","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613988504,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159991476?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-22 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Who Rules the Cloud? The Answer Is Hazy.<blockquote>谁统治云？答案是模糊的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159991476","media":"Barrons","summary":"Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform dominate the U.S. public cloud market, withOracle knocking on the door. But the data are obfuscated by definitions that can make comparisons among them almost impossible.Amazon has the clearest story: AWS had net sales of $12.7 billion in the fourth quarter, and $45.4 billion for all of 2020. Sales were up 28% for the quarter, and 30% for the full year.Oracle’s approach isn’t any better. Most of its corporate revenue, including clou","content":"<p>Who has the biggest cloud? Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform dominate the U.S. public cloud market, withOracle knocking on the door. But the data are obfuscated by definitions that can make comparisons among them almost impossible.</p><p><blockquote>谁的云最大？Amazon Web Services、微软Azure和谷歌云平台主导着美国公共云市场，甲骨文也在敲门。但是这些数据被定义混淆了，使得它们之间的比较几乎不可能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b>(ticker: AMZN) has the clearest story: AWS had net sales of $12.7 billion in the fourth quarter, and $45.4 billion for all of 2020. Sales were up 28% for the quarter, and 30% for the full year.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（股票代码：AMZN）有一个最清晰的故事：AWS第四季度净销售额为127亿美元，2020年全年净销售额为454亿美元。本季度销售额增长28%，全年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Alphabet</b>(GOOGL) reported revenue of $3.8 billion for its Google Cloud business segment in the latest quarter, up 47%. But that includes results not only from the Google Cloud Platform, its public cloud business, but also from Google Workspace, the collection of productivity tools that used to be called G Suite. Alphabet says that GCP—the piece that competes with AWS—is growing faster than its overall cloud business, but provides no details.</p><p><blockquote><b>Alphabet</b>（GOOGL）公布最近一个季度谷歌云业务部门营收为38亿美元，增长47%。但这不仅包括谷歌云平台（其公共云业务）的结果，还包括谷歌Workspace（过去被称为G Suite的生产力工具集合）的结果。Alphabet表示，与AWS竞争的GCP的增长速度快于其整体云业务，但没有提供细节。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Microsoft’</b>s&nbsp;numbers are messier. The company (MSFT) said that “commercial cloud revenue” was $16.7 billion in the December quarter, up 34% from a year ago. But that’s not an actual reporting segment—the company doesn’t even provide the number every quarter. And it rolls up not just Azure but also Office 365 and other things. Maddeningly, Microsoft also has an overlapping formal business segment called Intelligent Cloud, which includes not only Azure, but also SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, and GitHub, among other elements. Intelligent Cloud had revenue of $14.6 billion in the latest quarter, up 23%. Azure revenue rose 50% in the quarter, but—sigh—Microsoft offers no dollar figure.</p><p><blockquote><b>微软</b>的数字更加混乱。该公司(MSFT)表示，12月份季度的“商业云收入”为167亿美元，同比增长34%。但这并不是一个实际的报告部分——该公司甚至不是每个季度都提供这个数字。它不仅可以卷Azure，还可以卷Office 365和其他东西。令人抓狂的是，微软还有一个重叠的正式业务部门，称为智能云，其中不仅包括Azure，还包括SQL Server、Windows Server、Visual Studio和GitHub等元素。智能云最近一个季度的收入为146亿美元，增长23%。Azure本季度收入增长了50%，但是——唉——微软没有提供美元数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oracle</b>’s approach isn’t any better. Most of its corporate revenue, including cloud subscriptions, is rolled into a bucket called “cloud services and license support,” which was $7.1 billion in the quarter ended in November, up 4% from a year earlier, and accounting for 71% of revenue. That basically includes all cloud services, plus any recurring subscription services. Oracle (ORCL) partially breaks out some cloud-related bits, but provides no dollar figures.</p><p><blockquote><b>神谕</b>的方法也好不到哪里去。其大部分企业收入（包括云订阅）都归入名为“云服务和许可证支持”的类别，截至11月的季度收入为71亿美元，同比增长4%，占收入的71%。这基本上包括所有云服务，加上任何定期订阅服务。甲骨文(ORCL)部分公布了一些与云相关的信息，但没有提供美元数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who Rules the Cloud? The Answer Is Hazy.<blockquote>谁统治云？答案是模糊的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho Rules the Cloud? The Answer Is Hazy.<blockquote>谁统治云？答案是模糊的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-22 18:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Who has the biggest cloud? Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform dominate the U.S. public cloud market, withOracle knocking on the door. But the data are obfuscated by definitions that can make comparisons among them almost impossible.</p><p><blockquote>谁的云最大？Amazon Web Services、微软Azure和谷歌云平台主导着美国公共云市场，甲骨文也在敲门。但是这些数据被定义混淆了，使得它们之间的比较几乎不可能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b>(ticker: AMZN) has the clearest story: AWS had net sales of $12.7 billion in the fourth quarter, and $45.4 billion for all of 2020. Sales were up 28% for the quarter, and 30% for the full year.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（股票代码：AMZN）有一个最清晰的故事：AWS第四季度净销售额为127亿美元，2020年全年净销售额为454亿美元。本季度销售额增长28%，全年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Alphabet</b>(GOOGL) reported revenue of $3.8 billion for its Google Cloud business segment in the latest quarter, up 47%. But that includes results not only from the Google Cloud Platform, its public cloud business, but also from Google Workspace, the collection of productivity tools that used to be called G Suite. Alphabet says that GCP—the piece that competes with AWS—is growing faster than its overall cloud business, but provides no details.</p><p><blockquote><b>Alphabet</b>（GOOGL）公布最近一个季度谷歌云业务部门营收为38亿美元，增长47%。但这不仅包括谷歌云平台（其公共云业务）的结果，还包括谷歌Workspace（过去被称为G Suite的生产力工具集合）的结果。Alphabet表示，与AWS竞争的GCP的增长速度快于其整体云业务，但没有提供细节。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Microsoft’</b>s&nbsp;numbers are messier. The company (MSFT) said that “commercial cloud revenue” was $16.7 billion in the December quarter, up 34% from a year ago. But that’s not an actual reporting segment—the company doesn’t even provide the number every quarter. And it rolls up not just Azure but also Office 365 and other things. Maddeningly, Microsoft also has an overlapping formal business segment called Intelligent Cloud, which includes not only Azure, but also SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, and GitHub, among other elements. Intelligent Cloud had revenue of $14.6 billion in the latest quarter, up 23%. Azure revenue rose 50% in the quarter, but—sigh—Microsoft offers no dollar figure.</p><p><blockquote><b>微软</b>的数字更加混乱。该公司(MSFT)表示，12月份季度的“商业云收入”为167亿美元，同比增长34%。但这并不是一个实际的报告部分——该公司甚至不是每个季度都提供这个数字。它不仅可以卷Azure，还可以卷Office 365和其他东西。令人抓狂的是，微软还有一个重叠的正式业务部门，称为智能云，其中不仅包括Azure，还包括SQL Server、Windows Server、Visual Studio和GitHub等元素。智能云最近一个季度的收入为146亿美元，增长23%。Azure本季度收入增长了50%，但是——唉——微软没有提供美元数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oracle</b>’s approach isn’t any better. Most of its corporate revenue, including cloud subscriptions, is rolled into a bucket called “cloud services and license support,” which was $7.1 billion in the quarter ended in November, up 4% from a year earlier, and accounting for 71% of revenue. That basically includes all cloud services, plus any recurring subscription services. Oracle (ORCL) partially breaks out some cloud-related bits, but provides no dollar figures.</p><p><blockquote><b>神谕</b>的方法也好不到哪里去。其大部分企业收入（包括云订阅）都归入名为“云服务和许可证支持”的类别，截至11月的季度收入为71亿美元，同比增长4%，占收入的71%。这基本上包括所有云服务，加上任何定期订阅服务。甲骨文(ORCL)部分公布了一些与云相关的信息，但没有提供美元数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/who-rules-the-cloud-the-answer-is-hazy-51613786285?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","ORCL":"甲骨文","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/who-rules-the-cloud-the-answer-is-hazy-51613786285?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159991476","content_text":"Who has the biggest cloud? Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform dominate the U.S. public cloud market, withOracle knocking on the door. But the data are obfuscated by definitions that can make comparisons among them almost impossible.\nAmazon(ticker: AMZN) has the clearest story: AWS had net sales of $12.7 billion in the fourth quarter, and $45.4 billion for all of 2020. Sales were up 28% for the quarter, and 30% for the full year.\nAlphabet(GOOGL) reported revenue of $3.8 billion for its Google Cloud business segment in the latest quarter, up 47%. But that includes results not only from the Google Cloud Platform, its public cloud business, but also from Google Workspace, the collection of productivity tools that used to be called G Suite. Alphabet says that GCP—the piece that competes with AWS—is growing faster than its overall cloud business, but provides no details.\nMicrosoft’s numbers are messier. The company (MSFT) said that “commercial cloud revenue” was $16.7 billion in the December quarter, up 34% from a year ago. But that’s not an actual reporting segment—the company doesn’t even provide the number every quarter. And it rolls up not just Azure but also Office 365 and other things. Maddeningly, Microsoft also has an overlapping formal business segment called Intelligent Cloud, which includes not only Azure, but also SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, and GitHub, among other elements. Intelligent Cloud had revenue of $14.6 billion in the latest quarter, up 23%. Azure revenue rose 50% in the quarter, but—sigh—Microsoft offers no dollar figure.\nOracle’s approach isn’t any better. Most of its corporate revenue, including cloud subscriptions, is rolled into a bucket called “cloud services and license support,” which was $7.1 billion in the quarter ended in November, up 4% from a year earlier, and accounting for 71% of revenue. That basically includes all cloud services, plus any recurring subscription services. Oracle (ORCL) partially breaks out some cloud-related bits, but provides no dollar 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18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Who Rules the Cloud? The Answer Is Hazy.<blockquote>谁统治云？答案是模糊的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159991476","media":"Barrons","summary":"Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform dominate the U.S. public cloud market, withOracle knocking on the door. But the data are obfuscated by definitions that can make comparisons among them almost impossible.Amazon has the clearest story: AWS had net sales of $12.7 billion in the fourth quarter, and $45.4 billion for all of 2020. Sales were up 28% for the quarter, and 30% for the full year.Oracle’s approach isn’t any better. Most of its corporate revenue, including clou","content":"<p>Who has the biggest cloud? Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform dominate the U.S. public cloud market, withOracle knocking on the door. But the data are obfuscated by definitions that can make comparisons among them almost impossible.</p><p><blockquote>谁的云最大？Amazon Web Services、微软Azure和谷歌云平台主导着美国公共云市场，甲骨文也在敲门。但是这些数据被定义混淆了，使得它们之间的比较几乎不可能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b>(ticker: AMZN) has the clearest story: AWS had net sales of $12.7 billion in the fourth quarter, and $45.4 billion for all of 2020. Sales were up 28% for the quarter, and 30% for the full year.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（股票代码：AMZN）有一个最清晰的故事：AWS第四季度净销售额为127亿美元，2020年全年净销售额为454亿美元。本季度销售额增长28%，全年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Alphabet</b>(GOOGL) reported revenue of $3.8 billion for its Google Cloud business segment in the latest quarter, up 47%. But that includes results not only from the Google Cloud Platform, its public cloud business, but also from Google Workspace, the collection of productivity tools that used to be called G Suite. Alphabet says that GCP—the piece that competes with AWS—is growing faster than its overall cloud business, but provides no details.</p><p><blockquote><b>Alphabet</b>（GOOGL）公布最近一个季度谷歌云业务部门营收为38亿美元，增长47%。但这不仅包括谷歌云平台（其公共云业务）的结果，还包括谷歌Workspace（过去被称为G Suite的生产力工具集合）的结果。Alphabet表示，与AWS竞争的GCP的增长速度快于其整体云业务，但没有提供细节。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Microsoft’</b>s&nbsp;numbers are messier. The company (MSFT) said that “commercial cloud revenue” was $16.7 billion in the December quarter, up 34% from a year ago. But that’s not an actual reporting segment—the company doesn’t even provide the number every quarter. And it rolls up not just Azure but also Office 365 and other things. Maddeningly, Microsoft also has an overlapping formal business segment called Intelligent Cloud, which includes not only Azure, but also SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, and GitHub, among other elements. Intelligent Cloud had revenue of $14.6 billion in the latest quarter, up 23%. Azure revenue rose 50% in the quarter, but—sigh—Microsoft offers no dollar figure.</p><p><blockquote><b>微软</b>的数字更加混乱。该公司(MSFT)表示，12月份季度的“商业云收入”为167亿美元，同比增长34%。但这并不是一个实际的报告部分——该公司甚至不是每个季度都提供这个数字。它不仅可以卷Azure，还可以卷Office 365和其他东西。令人抓狂的是，微软还有一个重叠的正式业务部门，称为智能云，其中不仅包括Azure，还包括SQL Server、Windows Server、Visual Studio和GitHub等元素。智能云最近一个季度的收入为146亿美元，增长23%。Azure本季度收入增长了50%，但是——唉——微软没有提供美元数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oracle</b>’s approach isn’t any better. Most of its corporate revenue, including cloud subscriptions, is rolled into a bucket called “cloud services and license support,” which was $7.1 billion in the quarter ended in November, up 4% from a year earlier, and accounting for 71% of revenue. That basically includes all cloud services, plus any recurring subscription services. Oracle (ORCL) partially breaks out some cloud-related bits, but provides no dollar figures.</p><p><blockquote><b>神谕</b>的方法也好不到哪里去。其大部分企业收入（包括云订阅）都归入名为“云服务和许可证支持”的类别，截至11月的季度收入为71亿美元，同比增长4%，占收入的71%。这基本上包括所有云服务，加上任何定期订阅服务。甲骨文(ORCL)部分公布了一些与云相关的信息，但没有提供美元数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who Rules the Cloud? The Answer Is Hazy.<blockquote>谁统治云？答案是模糊的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho Rules the Cloud? The Answer Is Hazy.<blockquote>谁统治云？答案是模糊的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-22 18:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Who has the biggest cloud? Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform dominate the U.S. public cloud market, withOracle knocking on the door. But the data are obfuscated by definitions that can make comparisons among them almost impossible.</p><p><blockquote>谁的云最大？Amazon Web Services、微软Azure和谷歌云平台主导着美国公共云市场，甲骨文也在敲门。但是这些数据被定义混淆了，使得它们之间的比较几乎不可能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b>(ticker: AMZN) has the clearest story: AWS had net sales of $12.7 billion in the fourth quarter, and $45.4 billion for all of 2020. Sales were up 28% for the quarter, and 30% for the full year.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（股票代码：AMZN）有一个最清晰的故事：AWS第四季度净销售额为127亿美元，2020年全年净销售额为454亿美元。本季度销售额增长28%，全年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Alphabet</b>(GOOGL) reported revenue of $3.8 billion for its Google Cloud business segment in the latest quarter, up 47%. But that includes results not only from the Google Cloud Platform, its public cloud business, but also from Google Workspace, the collection of productivity tools that used to be called G Suite. Alphabet says that GCP—the piece that competes with AWS—is growing faster than its overall cloud business, but provides no details.</p><p><blockquote><b>Alphabet</b>（GOOGL）公布最近一个季度谷歌云业务部门营收为38亿美元，增长47%。但这不仅包括谷歌云平台（其公共云业务）的结果，还包括谷歌Workspace（过去被称为G Suite的生产力工具集合）的结果。Alphabet表示，与AWS竞争的GCP的增长速度快于其整体云业务，但没有提供细节。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Microsoft’</b>s&nbsp;numbers are messier. The company (MSFT) said that “commercial cloud revenue” was $16.7 billion in the December quarter, up 34% from a year ago. But that’s not an actual reporting segment—the company doesn’t even provide the number every quarter. And it rolls up not just Azure but also Office 365 and other things. Maddeningly, Microsoft also has an overlapping formal business segment called Intelligent Cloud, which includes not only Azure, but also SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, and GitHub, among other elements. Intelligent Cloud had revenue of $14.6 billion in the latest quarter, up 23%. Azure revenue rose 50% in the quarter, but—sigh—Microsoft offers no dollar figure.</p><p><blockquote><b>微软</b>的数字更加混乱。该公司(MSFT)表示，12月份季度的“商业云收入”为167亿美元，同比增长34%。但这并不是一个实际的报告部分——该公司甚至不是每个季度都提供这个数字。它不仅可以卷Azure，还可以卷Office 365和其他东西。令人抓狂的是，微软还有一个重叠的正式业务部门，称为智能云，其中不仅包括Azure，还包括SQL Server、Windows Server、Visual Studio和GitHub等元素。智能云最近一个季度的收入为146亿美元，增长23%。Azure本季度收入增长了50%，但是——唉——微软没有提供美元数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oracle</b>’s approach isn’t any better. Most of its corporate revenue, including cloud subscriptions, is rolled into a bucket called “cloud services and license support,” which was $7.1 billion in the quarter ended in November, up 4% from a year earlier, and accounting for 71% of revenue. That basically includes all cloud services, plus any recurring subscription services. Oracle (ORCL) partially breaks out some cloud-related bits, but provides no dollar figures.</p><p><blockquote><b>神谕</b>的方法也好不到哪里去。其大部分企业收入（包括云订阅）都归入名为“云服务和许可证支持”的类别，截至11月的季度收入为71亿美元，同比增长4%，占收入的71%。这基本上包括所有云服务，加上任何定期订阅服务。甲骨文(ORCL)部分公布了一些与云相关的信息，但没有提供美元数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/who-rules-the-cloud-the-answer-is-hazy-51613786285?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","ORCL":"甲骨文","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/who-rules-the-cloud-the-answer-is-hazy-51613786285?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159991476","content_text":"Who has the biggest cloud? Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform dominate the U.S. public cloud market, withOracle knocking on the door. But the data are obfuscated by definitions that can make comparisons among them almost impossible.\nAmazon(ticker: AMZN) has the clearest story: AWS had net sales of $12.7 billion in the fourth quarter, and $45.4 billion for all of 2020. Sales were up 28% for the quarter, and 30% for the full year.\nAlphabet(GOOGL) reported revenue of $3.8 billion for its Google Cloud business segment in the latest quarter, up 47%. But that includes results not only from the Google Cloud Platform, its public cloud business, but also from Google Workspace, the collection of productivity tools that used to be called G Suite. Alphabet says that GCP—the piece that competes with AWS—is growing faster than its overall cloud business, but provides no details.\nMicrosoft’s numbers are messier. The company (MSFT) said that “commercial cloud revenue” was $16.7 billion in the December quarter, up 34% from a year ago. But that’s not an actual reporting segment—the company doesn’t even provide the number every quarter. And it rolls up not just Azure but also Office 365 and other things. Maddeningly, Microsoft also has an overlapping formal business segment called Intelligent Cloud, which includes not only Azure, but also SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, and GitHub, among other elements. Intelligent Cloud had revenue of $14.6 billion in the latest quarter, up 23%. Azure revenue rose 50% in the quarter, but—sigh—Microsoft offers no dollar figure.\nOracle’s approach isn’t any better. Most of its corporate revenue, including cloud subscriptions, is rolled into a bucket called “cloud services and license support,” which was $7.1 billion in the quarter ended in November, up 4% from a year earlier, and accounting for 71% of revenue. That basically includes all cloud services, plus any recurring subscription services. Oracle (ORCL) partially breaks out some cloud-related bits, but provides no dollar figures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"ORCL":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340452978,"gmtCreate":1617460746694,"gmtModify":1634520875375,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568770848498679","idStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340452978","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均值，即使有些人的投资基于历史上发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均值，即使有些人的投资基于历史上发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327801119,"gmtCreate":1616074695431,"gmtModify":1634527374813,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568770848498679","idStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327801119","repostId":"1114091354","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328086161,"gmtCreate":1615474783653,"gmtModify":1703489656929,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568770848498679","idStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[白眼]&nbsp;","listText":"[白眼]&nbsp;","text":"[白眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328086161","repostId":"2118677018","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2118677018","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1615472839,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2118677018?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 22:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If You Invested $1,000 In Tesla 10 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have Now<blockquote>如果您10年前在特斯拉投资1,000美元，那么您现在拥有的金额如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118677018","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Have you ever thought about what your returns would be today if you invested in Tesla Motors  10 years ago?Tesla Motors is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company that was founded and incorporated on July 1, 2003, by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Elon Musk was an early investor in Tesla and has served as the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors since 2008.This company specializes in building electric cars, solar and integrated renewable energy solutions for homes and bu","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c434325fc9d83bd73e4dee58168cecf\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Have you ever thought about what your returns would be today if you invested in Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) 10 years ago? Tesla Motors is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company that was founded and incorporated on July 1, 2003, by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Elon Musk was an early investor in Tesla and has served as the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors since 2008.</p><p><blockquote>您有没有想过，如果您10年前投资特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA），您今天的回报会是多少？特斯拉是一家美国电动汽车和清洁能源公司，由Martin Eberhard和Marc Tarpenning于2003年7月1日创立并注册。Elon Musk是特斯拉的早期投资者，自2008年以来一直担任特斯拉的首席执行官和产品架构师。</blockquote></p><p> This company specializes in building electric cars, solar and integrated renewable energy solutions for homes and businesses. Tesla is the world's best-selling plug-in and battery electric passenger car manufacturer. Tesla Motors has headquartered in Palo Alto, California, and builds many of its vehicle components in-house, such as batteries, motors, and software.</p><p><blockquote>该公司专门为家庭和企业制造电动汽车、太阳能和集成可再生能源解决方案。特斯拉是全球最畅销的插电式和电池电动乘用车制造商。特斯拉总部位于加州帕罗奥图，许多汽车零部件都是在内部制造的，如电池、电机和软件。</blockquote></p><p> In 2010 Tesla Motors purchased the Tesla factory for 42 million in Fremont California. Tesla went on to launch its first initial public offering (IPO) on NASDAQ on June 29, 2010. They issued 13.3 million shares of common stock for the public at a price of $17.00 per share.</p><p><blockquote>2010年，特斯拉以4200万美元的价格收购了特斯拉工厂。2010年6月29日，特斯拉在纳斯达克进行了首次公开募股（IPO）。他们以每股17.00美元的价格向公众发行了1330万股普通股。</blockquote></p><p> On March 8th, 2011 Tesla shares were sold at an opening price of $4.92 per share. Now a decade later the Tesla share price has skyrocketed up to $563 per share. If you'd invested 1,000 in Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) on March 7, 2011, today that investment would be worth $119,829.66. Your total profit from that investment today would equal $118,829.66 with an annual return of 61.26%.</p><p><blockquote>2011年3月8日，特斯拉股票以每股4.92美元的开盘价出售。十年后的今天，特斯拉股价已飙升至每股563美元。如果您在2011年3月7日向特斯拉(TSLA)投资1,000美元，那么今天该投资将价值119,829.66美元。您今天从该投资中获得的总利润将等于118,829.66美元，年回报率为61.26%。</blockquote></p><p> Back in August, they announced a stock split and since then share prices have increased by nearly 200% on a split-adjusted basis. The overall share price has been steadily increasing over the past few years.</p><p><blockquote>早在8月份，他们就宣布进行股票分割，此后股价在分割调整后上涨了近200%。过去几年，整体股价一直在稳步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, Tesla's global sales reached an all-time high of 499,550 units with a 35.8% increase over the previous year. Tesla broke the record for the greatest value of any American automaker after reaching a market capitalization of $86 billion on January 20th, 2020. Tesla shot up 743% in 2020 alone and their share price reached a peak of $900 at the start of this year.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，特斯拉全球销量达到499,550辆的历史新高，比上年增长35.8%。特斯拉在2020年1月20日市值达到860亿美元后，打破了美国汽车制造商的最大市值纪录。特斯拉仅在2020年就飙升了743%，其股价在今年年初达到了900美元的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Since reaching that peak back in January, Tesla share prices have dropped by around 38%. Tesla shares have been down by about 16% so far this year. Tesla has definitely had its struggles but the company expects to increase its productivity and volume by 50% each year in the near future. Every stock has had its ups and downs but Tesla Motors has grown to become <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the top electric car manufacturers in the world.</p><p><blockquote>自1月份达到峰值以来，特斯拉股价已下跌约38%。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约16%。特斯拉确实遇到了困难，但该公司预计在不久的将来每年将其生产力和销量提高50%。每只股票都有起起落落，但特斯拉已经成长为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>世界顶级电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If You Invested $1,000 In Tesla 10 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have Now<blockquote>如果您10年前在特斯拉投资1,000美元，那么您现在拥有的金额如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf You Invested $1,000 In Tesla 10 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have Now<blockquote>如果您10年前在特斯拉投资1,000美元，那么您现在拥有的金额如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-11 22:27</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c434325fc9d83bd73e4dee58168cecf\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Have you ever thought about what your returns would be today if you invested in Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) 10 years ago? Tesla Motors is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company that was founded and incorporated on July 1, 2003, by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Elon Musk was an early investor in Tesla and has served as the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors since 2008.</p><p><blockquote>您有没有想过，如果您10年前投资特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA），您今天的回报会是多少？特斯拉是一家美国电动汽车和清洁能源公司，由Martin Eberhard和Marc Tarpenning于2003年7月1日创立并注册。Elon Musk是特斯拉的早期投资者，自2008年以来一直担任特斯拉的首席执行官和产品架构师。</blockquote></p><p> This company specializes in building electric cars, solar and integrated renewable energy solutions for homes and businesses. Tesla is the world's best-selling plug-in and battery electric passenger car manufacturer. Tesla Motors has headquartered in Palo Alto, California, and builds many of its vehicle components in-house, such as batteries, motors, and software.</p><p><blockquote>该公司专门为家庭和企业制造电动汽车、太阳能和集成可再生能源解决方案。特斯拉是全球最畅销的插电式和电池电动乘用车制造商。特斯拉总部位于加州帕罗奥图，许多汽车零部件都是在内部制造的，如电池、电机和软件。</blockquote></p><p> In 2010 Tesla Motors purchased the Tesla factory for 42 million in Fremont California. Tesla went on to launch its first initial public offering (IPO) on NASDAQ on June 29, 2010. They issued 13.3 million shares of common stock for the public at a price of $17.00 per share.</p><p><blockquote>2010年，特斯拉以4200万美元的价格收购了特斯拉工厂。2010年6月29日，特斯拉在纳斯达克进行了首次公开募股（IPO）。他们以每股17.00美元的价格向公众发行了1330万股普通股。</blockquote></p><p> On March 8th, 2011 Tesla shares were sold at an opening price of $4.92 per share. Now a decade later the Tesla share price has skyrocketed up to $563 per share. If you'd invested 1,000 in Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) on March 7, 2011, today that investment would be worth $119,829.66. Your total profit from that investment today would equal $118,829.66 with an annual return of 61.26%.</p><p><blockquote>2011年3月8日，特斯拉股票以每股4.92美元的开盘价出售。十年后的今天，特斯拉股价已飙升至每股563美元。如果您在2011年3月7日向特斯拉(TSLA)投资1,000美元，那么今天该投资将价值119,829.66美元。您今天从该投资中获得的总利润将等于118,829.66美元，年回报率为61.26%。</blockquote></p><p> Back in August, they announced a stock split and since then share prices have increased by nearly 200% on a split-adjusted basis. The overall share price has been steadily increasing over the past few years.</p><p><blockquote>早在8月份，他们就宣布进行股票分割，此后股价在分割调整后上涨了近200%。过去几年，整体股价一直在稳步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, Tesla's global sales reached an all-time high of 499,550 units with a 35.8% increase over the previous year. Tesla broke the record for the greatest value of any American automaker after reaching a market capitalization of $86 billion on January 20th, 2020. Tesla shot up 743% in 2020 alone and their share price reached a peak of $900 at the start of this year.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，特斯拉全球销量达到499,550辆的历史新高，比上年增长35.8%。特斯拉在2020年1月20日市值达到860亿美元后，打破了美国汽车制造商的最大市值纪录。特斯拉仅在2020年就飙升了743%，其股价在今年年初达到了900美元的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Since reaching that peak back in January, Tesla share prices have dropped by around 38%. Tesla shares have been down by about 16% so far this year. Tesla has definitely had its struggles but the company expects to increase its productivity and volume by 50% each year in the near future. Every stock has had its ups and downs but Tesla Motors has grown to become <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the top electric car manufacturers in the world.</p><p><blockquote>自1月份达到峰值以来，特斯拉股价已下跌约38%。今年迄今为止，特斯拉股价已下跌约16%。特斯拉确实遇到了困难，但该公司预计在不久的将来每年将其生产力和销量提高50%。每只股票都有起起落落，但特斯拉已经成长为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>世界顶级电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2118677018","content_text":"Have you ever thought about what your returns would be today if you invested in Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) 10 years ago? Tesla Motors is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company that was founded and incorporated on July 1, 2003, by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Elon Musk was an early investor in Tesla and has served as the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors since 2008.\nThis company specializes in building electric cars, solar and integrated renewable energy solutions for homes and businesses. Tesla is the world's best-selling plug-in and battery electric passenger car manufacturer. Tesla Motors has headquartered in Palo Alto, California, and builds many of its vehicle components in-house, such as batteries, motors, and software.\nIn 2010 Tesla Motors purchased the Tesla factory for 42 million in Fremont California. Tesla went on to launch its first initial public offering (IPO) on NASDAQ on June 29, 2010. They issued 13.3 million shares of common stock for the public at a price of $17.00 per share.\nOn March 8th, 2011 Tesla shares were sold at an opening price of $4.92 per share. Now a decade later the Tesla share price has skyrocketed up to $563 per share. If you'd invested 1,000 in Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) on March 7, 2011, today that investment would be worth $119,829.66. Your total profit from that investment today would equal $118,829.66 with an annual return of 61.26%.\nBack in August, they announced a stock split and since then share prices have increased by nearly 200% on a split-adjusted basis. The overall share price has been steadily increasing over the past few years.\nIn 2020, Tesla's global sales reached an all-time high of 499,550 units with a 35.8% increase over the previous year. Tesla broke the record for the greatest value of any American automaker after reaching a market capitalization of $86 billion on January 20th, 2020. Tesla shot up 743% in 2020 alone and their share price reached a peak of $900 at the start of this year.\nSince reaching that peak back in January, Tesla share prices have dropped by around 38%. Tesla shares have been down by about 16% so far this year. Tesla has definitely had its struggles but the company expects to increase its productivity and volume by 50% each year in the near future. Every stock has had its ups and downs but Tesla Motors has grown to become one of the top electric car manufacturers in the world.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323762538,"gmtCreate":1615377771924,"gmtModify":1703488109217,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568770848498679","idStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323762538","repostId":"1119259036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360004133,"gmtCreate":1613792408522,"gmtModify":1634552205031,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568770848498679","idStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🥸","listText":"🥸","text":"🥸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360004133","repostId":"2112841085","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386798554,"gmtCreate":1613270228078,"gmtModify":1634554061993,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568770848498679","idStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😶","listText":"😶","text":"😶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386798554","repostId":"2110046043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325658159,"gmtCreate":1615897215371,"gmtModify":1703494643538,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568770848498679","idStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325658159","repostId":"2119786479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364516338,"gmtCreate":1614863988424,"gmtModify":1703482146663,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568770848498679","idStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364516338","repostId":"1177763037","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177763037","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614845960,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177763037?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 16:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks Ready to Bounce Back in March<blockquote>3只股票准备在3月份反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177763037","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Some stocks that perhaps flew too high, too soon have been on sharp descents lately. Shares ofPeloto","content":"<p>Some stocks that perhaps flew too high, too soon have been on sharp descents lately. Shares of<b>Peloton Interactive</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:PTON),<b>Zoom Video Communications</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:ZM), and<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)were market darlings just a couple of weeks ago. Sentiment has turned in the recent market correction, and all three of them are now trading at least 20% below their all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>一些可能飞得太高、太快的股票最近却大幅下跌。本公司之股份<b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克：PTON），<b>Zoom Video通信公司</b>（纳斯达克：ZM），以及<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）就在几周前还是市场的宠儿。在最近的市场调整中，市场情绪发生了转变，这三家公司目前的交易价格都比历史高点低了至少20%。</blockquote></p><p> It won't always be that way. All three have the right ingredients to get back on track. Let's see why this trio of stocks can hit fresh highs later this year, thumping the market yet again in the process.</p><p><blockquote>不会一直这样的。这三者都具备重回正轨的正确要素。让我们看看为什么这三只股票能够在今年晚些时候创下新高，并在此过程中再次冲击市场。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Peloton Interactive</p><p><blockquote>1.Peloton互动</blockquote></p><p> The first two names have a lot in common. Peloton and Zoom Video became poster children of the new normal during the early stages of the pandemic, only to be discarded when the COVID-19 vaccines started hitting the market. Let's take Peloton for a spin first.</p><p><blockquote>前两个名字有很多共同点。在大流行的早期阶段，Peloton和Zoom Video成为新常态的典型代表，但当COVID-19疫苗开始上市时，它们就被抛弃了。我们先带Peloton兜一圈。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton exploded as the high-end fitness platform at home. Its treadmills became the worthy substitute to fitness center workouts. Its even more popular stationary bikes replaced local spinning class boutiques.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton爆火成为国内高端健身平台。它的跑步机成为健身中心锻炼的当之无愧的替代品。它更受欢迎的固定自行车取代了当地的动感单车精品店。</blockquote></p><p> Growth has been tremendous. Peloton connected fitness subscribers have soared 134% to 1.67 million members. Its cheaper digital subscriptions for folks that lack Peloton hardware is a much smaller business, but it's growing even faster. Peloton's now topping $1 billion in revenue every quarter, and it's not done working up a sweat.</p><p><blockquote>增长是巨大的。Peloton connected fitness订阅用户飙升134%，达到167万。它为缺乏Peloton硬件的人提供更便宜的数字订阅业务规模要小得多，但增长速度更快。Peloton现在每个季度的收入都超过10亿美元，而且还没有完成努力。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton isn't going anywhere once the public health crisis abates, largely because this was one pandemic play that legitimately improved on the original it was replacing. Peloton's interactive sessions are convenient and productive. The proof is in the pudding. Investors may have rotated out of Peloton shares; the stock is 31% off of January's peak. But workout seekers see things differently. Demand continues to outstrip supply even with vaccines on the market. The order backlog is still several weeks for new orders.</p><p><blockquote>一旦公共卫生危机减弱，Peloton就不会去任何地方，很大程度上是因为这是一部疫情剧，在它所取代的原版基础上进行了合理的改进。Peloton的互动会议既方便又富有成效。证据就在布丁里。投资者可能已经退出Peloton股票；该股较1月份的峰值下跌了31%。但是寻求锻炼的人有不同的看法。即使市场上有疫苗，需求仍然超过供应。新订单的订单积压仍有几周时间。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Zoom</p><p><blockquote>2.缩放</blockquote></p><p> Tuesday was -- well --weird for Zoom stock. The videoconferencing speedster opened 7% higher after serving up a monster quarter, only to shed 15% of its value throughout the trading day to close Tuesday out with a 9% decline.</p><p><blockquote>周二对于Zoom股票来说很奇怪。这家视频会议speedster在经历了一个巨大的季度后开盘上涨7%，但整个交易日股价下跌15%，周二收盘下跌9%。</blockquote></p><p> Results for its fiscal fourth quarter were stellar. Revenue skyrocketed 369% to hit $882.5 million. If you think that's a big number, adjusted operating income and earnings per share soared 840% and 713%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>其第四财季的业绩非常出色。收入猛增369%，达到8.825亿美元。如果你认为这是一个很大的数字，调整后的营业收入和每股收益分别飙升了840%和713%。</blockquote></p><p> Growth will undeniably decelerate at this point. Zoom issued guidance for the new fiscal 2022 year, and it sees revenue climbing 42% to $3.77 billion, with adjusted earnings rising a modest 8% to $3.62 a share. If Zoom's guidance sounds like a good reason to dump the stock, keep in mind that before the report analysts were expecting Zoom to earn less than $3 a share in the new fiscal year. It's not going away post-pandemic. Zoom is part of our lives now, and the stock's a bargain at a 37% discount to its October high-water mark.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，增长将在这一点上减速。Zoom发布了2022财年新指引，预计收入将增长42%至37.7亿美元，调整后收益将小幅增长8%至每股3.62美元。如果Zoom的指引听起来像是抛售该股的好理由，请记住，在报告发布之前，分析师预计Zoom在新财年的每股收益将低于3美元。大流行后，它不会消失。Zoom现在已成为我们生活的一部分，该股比10月份的高点低37%，非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Tesla</p><p><blockquote>3.特斯拉</blockquote></p><p> Investors are allowed to change their minds -- and their wheels. In January, I singled Tesla out asa stock to avoid. A month later, I finally owned my first Tesla vehicle and became a shareholder for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以改变他们的想法和他们的轮子。一月份，我特别指出特斯拉是一只值得回避的股票。一个月后，我终于拥有了我的第一辆特斯拉汽车，第一次成为了股东。</blockquote></p><p> \"Tesla isn't going to relinquish its pole position in the ascending electric vehicle market,\" I argued in late January. \"It will keep making its mark, and the revolution is real. The $837 billion market cap is what worries me here.\"</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉不会放弃其在不断上升的电动汽车市场中的领先地位，”我在一月底表示。“它将继续留下印记，革命是真实的。8370亿美元的市值是我担心的。”</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's market cap had peaked at $864 million two days earlier when its shares briefly topped the $900 mark. The stock is trading 24% lower as of Tuesday's close.</p><p><blockquote>两天前，特斯拉的市值曾达到8.64亿美元的峰值，当时其股价短暂突破900美元大关。截至周二收盘，该股下跌24%。</blockquote></p><p> Legacy automakers are making big moves in going electric, and there are potential new entrants in this niche that bear watching. The problem for them is that they're not Tesla. They lack the full self-driving tech where a car can literally drive itself from a freeway onramp to the desired exit. They lack the proprietary network of more than 20,000 Supercharger stations to eat away at range anxiety.</p><p><blockquote>传统汽车制造商正在电动化方面采取重大举措，并且在这一利基市场中存在值得关注的潜在新进入者。他们的问题是他们不是特斯拉。他们缺乏全自动驾驶技术，汽车可以从高速公路入口自动行驶到所需的出口。他们缺乏由20,000多个超级充电站组成的专有网络来消除里程焦虑。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla turned profitable in 2020 and posted a 6.3% operating margin. It produced and delivered a half million cars. The more economical Model 3 and Model Y are driving the surge in volume, but earlier this year Tesla updated its higher-end cars. Some might still not consider Tesla a bargain with its $659 billion market cap, but momentum is on its side.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在2020年实现盈利，营业利润率为6.3%。它生产并交付了50万辆汽车。更经济的Model 3和Model Y正在推动销量激增，但今年早些时候特斯拉更新了其高端汽车。有些人可能仍然不认为特斯拉的市值为6590亿美元，但势头是站在它这边的。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton, Zoom, and Tesla are down, but they're not out. All three stocks should bounce back in March and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton、Zoom和特斯拉都倒下了，但他们并没有出局。这三只股票应该会在三月份及以后反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks Ready to Bounce Back in March<blockquote>3只股票准备在3月份反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks Ready to Bounce Back in March<blockquote>3只股票准备在3月份反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 16:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some stocks that perhaps flew too high, too soon have been on sharp descents lately. Shares of<b>Peloton Interactive</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:PTON),<b>Zoom Video Communications</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:ZM), and<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)were market darlings just a couple of weeks ago. Sentiment has turned in the recent market correction, and all three of them are now trading at least 20% below their all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>一些可能飞得太高、太快的股票最近却大幅下跌。本公司之股份<b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克：PTON），<b>Zoom Video通信公司</b>（纳斯达克：ZM），以及<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）就在几周前还是市场的宠儿。在最近的市场调整中，市场情绪发生了转变，这三家公司目前的交易价格都比历史高点低了至少20%。</blockquote></p><p> It won't always be that way. All three have the right ingredients to get back on track. Let's see why this trio of stocks can hit fresh highs later this year, thumping the market yet again in the process.</p><p><blockquote>不会一直这样的。这三者都具备重回正轨的正确要素。让我们看看为什么这三只股票能够在今年晚些时候创下新高，并在此过程中再次冲击市场。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Peloton Interactive</p><p><blockquote>1.Peloton互动</blockquote></p><p> The first two names have a lot in common. Peloton and Zoom Video became poster children of the new normal during the early stages of the pandemic, only to be discarded when the COVID-19 vaccines started hitting the market. Let's take Peloton for a spin first.</p><p><blockquote>前两个名字有很多共同点。在大流行的早期阶段，Peloton和Zoom Video成为新常态的典型代表，但当COVID-19疫苗开始上市时，它们就被抛弃了。我们先带Peloton兜一圈。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton exploded as the high-end fitness platform at home. Its treadmills became the worthy substitute to fitness center workouts. Its even more popular stationary bikes replaced local spinning class boutiques.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton爆火成为国内高端健身平台。它的跑步机成为健身中心锻炼的当之无愧的替代品。它更受欢迎的固定自行车取代了当地的动感单车精品店。</blockquote></p><p> Growth has been tremendous. Peloton connected fitness subscribers have soared 134% to 1.67 million members. Its cheaper digital subscriptions for folks that lack Peloton hardware is a much smaller business, but it's growing even faster. Peloton's now topping $1 billion in revenue every quarter, and it's not done working up a sweat.</p><p><blockquote>增长是巨大的。Peloton connected fitness订阅用户飙升134%，达到167万。它为缺乏Peloton硬件的人提供更便宜的数字订阅业务规模要小得多，但增长速度更快。Peloton现在每个季度的收入都超过10亿美元，而且还没有完成努力。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton isn't going anywhere once the public health crisis abates, largely because this was one pandemic play that legitimately improved on the original it was replacing. Peloton's interactive sessions are convenient and productive. The proof is in the pudding. Investors may have rotated out of Peloton shares; the stock is 31% off of January's peak. But workout seekers see things differently. Demand continues to outstrip supply even with vaccines on the market. The order backlog is still several weeks for new orders.</p><p><blockquote>一旦公共卫生危机减弱，Peloton就不会去任何地方，很大程度上是因为这是一部疫情剧，在它所取代的原版基础上进行了合理的改进。Peloton的互动会议既方便又富有成效。证据就在布丁里。投资者可能已经退出Peloton股票；该股较1月份的峰值下跌了31%。但是寻求锻炼的人有不同的看法。即使市场上有疫苗，需求仍然超过供应。新订单的订单积压仍有几周时间。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Zoom</p><p><blockquote>2.缩放</blockquote></p><p> Tuesday was -- well --weird for Zoom stock. The videoconferencing speedster opened 7% higher after serving up a monster quarter, only to shed 15% of its value throughout the trading day to close Tuesday out with a 9% decline.</p><p><blockquote>周二对于Zoom股票来说很奇怪。这家视频会议speedster在经历了一个巨大的季度后开盘上涨7%，但整个交易日股价下跌15%，周二收盘下跌9%。</blockquote></p><p> Results for its fiscal fourth quarter were stellar. Revenue skyrocketed 369% to hit $882.5 million. If you think that's a big number, adjusted operating income and earnings per share soared 840% and 713%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>其第四财季的业绩非常出色。收入猛增369%，达到8.825亿美元。如果你认为这是一个很大的数字，调整后的营业收入和每股收益分别飙升了840%和713%。</blockquote></p><p> Growth will undeniably decelerate at this point. Zoom issued guidance for the new fiscal 2022 year, and it sees revenue climbing 42% to $3.77 billion, with adjusted earnings rising a modest 8% to $3.62 a share. If Zoom's guidance sounds like a good reason to dump the stock, keep in mind that before the report analysts were expecting Zoom to earn less than $3 a share in the new fiscal year. It's not going away post-pandemic. Zoom is part of our lives now, and the stock's a bargain at a 37% discount to its October high-water mark.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，增长将在这一点上减速。Zoom发布了2022财年新指引，预计收入将增长42%至37.7亿美元，调整后收益将小幅增长8%至每股3.62美元。如果Zoom的指引听起来像是抛售该股的好理由，请记住，在报告发布之前，分析师预计Zoom在新财年的每股收益将低于3美元。大流行后，它不会消失。Zoom现在已成为我们生活的一部分，该股比10月份的高点低37%，非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Tesla</p><p><blockquote>3.特斯拉</blockquote></p><p> Investors are allowed to change their minds -- and their wheels. In January, I singled Tesla out asa stock to avoid. A month later, I finally owned my first Tesla vehicle and became a shareholder for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以改变他们的想法和他们的轮子。一月份，我特别指出特斯拉是一只值得回避的股票。一个月后，我终于拥有了我的第一辆特斯拉汽车，第一次成为了股东。</blockquote></p><p> \"Tesla isn't going to relinquish its pole position in the ascending electric vehicle market,\" I argued in late January. \"It will keep making its mark, and the revolution is real. The $837 billion market cap is what worries me here.\"</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉不会放弃其在不断上升的电动汽车市场中的领先地位，”我在一月底表示。“它将继续留下印记，革命是真实的。8370亿美元的市值是我担心的。”</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's market cap had peaked at $864 million two days earlier when its shares briefly topped the $900 mark. The stock is trading 24% lower as of Tuesday's close.</p><p><blockquote>两天前，特斯拉的市值曾达到8.64亿美元的峰值，当时其股价短暂突破900美元大关。截至周二收盘，该股下跌24%。</blockquote></p><p> Legacy automakers are making big moves in going electric, and there are potential new entrants in this niche that bear watching. The problem for them is that they're not Tesla. They lack the full self-driving tech where a car can literally drive itself from a freeway onramp to the desired exit. They lack the proprietary network of more than 20,000 Supercharger stations to eat away at range anxiety.</p><p><blockquote>传统汽车制造商正在电动化方面采取重大举措，并且在这一利基市场中存在值得关注的潜在新进入者。他们的问题是他们不是特斯拉。他们缺乏全自动驾驶技术，汽车可以从高速公路入口自动行驶到所需的出口。他们缺乏由20,000多个超级充电站组成的专有网络来消除里程焦虑。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla turned profitable in 2020 and posted a 6.3% operating margin. It produced and delivered a half million cars. The more economical Model 3 and Model Y are driving the surge in volume, but earlier this year Tesla updated its higher-end cars. Some might still not consider Tesla a bargain with its $659 billion market cap, but momentum is on its side.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在2020年实现盈利，营业利润率为6.3%。它生产并交付了50万辆汽车。更经济的Model 3和Model Y正在推动销量激增，但今年早些时候特斯拉更新了其高端汽车。有些人可能仍然不认为特斯拉的市值为6590亿美元，但势头是站在它这边的。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton, Zoom, and Tesla are down, but they're not out. All three stocks should bounce back in March and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton、Zoom和特斯拉都倒下了，但他们并没有出局。这三只股票应该会在三月份及以后反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/03/3-stocks-ready-to-bounce-back-in-march/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/03/3-stocks-ready-to-bounce-back-in-march/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177763037","content_text":"Some stocks that perhaps flew too high, too soon have been on sharp descents lately. Shares ofPeloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON),Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM), andTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)were market darlings just a couple of weeks ago. Sentiment has turned in the recent market correction, and all three of them are now trading at least 20% below their all-time highs.\nIt won't always be that way. All three have the right ingredients to get back on track. Let's see why this trio of stocks can hit fresh highs later this year, thumping the market yet again in the process.\n1. Peloton Interactive\nThe first two names have a lot in common. Peloton and Zoom Video became poster children of the new normal during the early stages of the pandemic, only to be discarded when the COVID-19 vaccines started hitting the market. Let's take Peloton for a spin first.\nPeloton exploded as the high-end fitness platform at home. Its treadmills became the worthy substitute to fitness center workouts. Its even more popular stationary bikes replaced local spinning class boutiques.\nGrowth has been tremendous. Peloton connected fitness subscribers have soared 134% to 1.67 million members. Its cheaper digital subscriptions for folks that lack Peloton hardware is a much smaller business, but it's growing even faster. Peloton's now topping $1 billion in revenue every quarter, and it's not done working up a sweat.\nPeloton isn't going anywhere once the public health crisis abates, largely because this was one pandemic play that legitimately improved on the original it was replacing. Peloton's interactive sessions are convenient and productive. The proof is in the pudding. Investors may have rotated out of Peloton shares; the stock is 31% off of January's peak. But workout seekers see things differently. Demand continues to outstrip supply even with vaccines on the market. The order backlog is still several weeks for new orders.\n2. Zoom\nTuesday was -- well --weird for Zoom stock. The videoconferencing speedster opened 7% higher after serving up a monster quarter, only to shed 15% of its value throughout the trading day to close Tuesday out with a 9% decline.\nResults for its fiscal fourth quarter were stellar. Revenue skyrocketed 369% to hit $882.5 million. If you think that's a big number, adjusted operating income and earnings per share soared 840% and 713%, respectively.\nGrowth will undeniably decelerate at this point. Zoom issued guidance for the new fiscal 2022 year, and it sees revenue climbing 42% to $3.77 billion, with adjusted earnings rising a modest 8% to $3.62 a share. If Zoom's guidance sounds like a good reason to dump the stock, keep in mind that before the report analysts were expecting Zoom to earn less than $3 a share in the new fiscal year. It's not going away post-pandemic. Zoom is part of our lives now, and the stock's a bargain at a 37% discount to its October high-water mark.\n3. Tesla\nInvestors are allowed to change their minds -- and their wheels. In January, I singled Tesla out asa stock to avoid. A month later, I finally owned my first Tesla vehicle and became a shareholder for the first time.\n\"Tesla isn't going to relinquish its pole position in the ascending electric vehicle market,\" I argued in late January. \"It will keep making its mark, and the revolution is real. The $837 billion market cap is what worries me here.\"\nTesla's market cap had peaked at $864 million two days earlier when its shares briefly topped the $900 mark. The stock is trading 24% lower as of Tuesday's close.\nLegacy automakers are making big moves in going electric, and there are potential new entrants in this niche that bear watching. The problem for them is that they're not Tesla. They lack the full self-driving tech where a car can literally drive itself from a freeway onramp to the desired exit. They lack the proprietary network of more than 20,000 Supercharger stations to eat away at range anxiety.\nTesla turned profitable in 2020 and posted a 6.3% operating margin. It produced and delivered a half million cars. The more economical Model 3 and Model Y are driving the surge in volume, but earlier this year Tesla updated its higher-end cars. Some might still not consider Tesla a bargain with its $659 billion market cap, but momentum is on its side.\nPeloton, Zoom, and Tesla are down, but they're not out. All three stocks should bounce back in March and beyond.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"PTON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366262994,"gmtCreate":1614490734718,"gmtModify":1703477823207,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568770848498679","idStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366262994","repostId":"1111681080","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111681080","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614323230,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111681080?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 15:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111681080","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.Many stocks in the electric-vehicle  sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker NIO is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.Fellow ChineseEV maker Li Auto reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode ","content":"<p>Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车同行的积极盈利并没有帮助该行业的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Many stocks in the electric-vehicle (EV) sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车（EV）行业的许多股票今天都在下跌，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来也不例外。随着2020年第四季度和全年收益的临近，周四股价下跌了10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Fellow ChineseEV maker&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode well for what NIO has to say when it reports on Monday, March 1.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商理想汽车今天公布了第四季度收益，但结果不应该吓到该行业的投资者。理想汽车公布了第四季度的意外利润，这对于蔚来在3月1日星期一发布报告时所说的话来说可能是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> But investors are knocking back stocks of these high fliers today after extended runs brought high valuations.</p><p><blockquote>但在长期上涨带来高估值后，投资者今天正在回调这些雄心勃勃的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Li Auto reported a surprise positive net income of $16.5 million for its fourth quarter. While NIO competes with LI Auto, the companies offer slightly different products. Li's One SUV was designed to serve a specific niche in China. It includes a small gasoline engine onboard that can be used to recharge its batteries, allowing for longer travel between charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车公布第四季度净利润出人意料地达到1650万美元。虽然蔚来与理想汽车竞争，但两家公司提供的产品略有不同。Li的One SUV是为中国特定的利基市场而设计的。它包括一个小型汽油发动机，可用于为电池充电，允许在充电站之间进行更长时间的旅行。</blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 7,225 vehicles&nbsp;in January 2021 and 17,353 in its fourth quarter. These represented 352% and 111% year-over-year gains, respectively. NIO recently announced its first luxury sedan, the ET7, which will also have a new longer-range battery option.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2021年1月交付了7,225辆汽车，第四季度交付了17,353辆汽车。同比分别增长352%和111%。蔚来最近宣布了其首款豪华轿车ET7，该车还将配备新的远程电池选项。</blockquote></p><p> Including today's drop, shares have already fallen more than 20% from highs earlier this year. NIO's earnings on Monday could help soothe investor anxiety over the stock's high valuation. But for now, a correction remains under way.</p><p><blockquote>包括今天的下跌在内，股价已较今年早些时候的高点下跌超过20%。蔚来周一的财报可能有助于缓解投资者对该股高估值的焦虑。但目前，调整仍在进行中。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy NIO Stock Dropped Thursday<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价周四下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 15:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车同行的积极盈利并没有帮助该行业的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Many stocks in the electric-vehicle (EV) sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车（EV）行业的许多股票今天都在下跌，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来也不例外。随着2020年第四季度和全年收益的临近，周四股价下跌了10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Fellow ChineseEV maker&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode well for what NIO has to say when it reports on Monday, March 1.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商理想汽车今天公布了第四季度收益，但结果不应该吓到该行业的投资者。理想汽车公布了第四季度的意外利润，这对于蔚来在3月1日星期一发布报告时所说的话来说可能是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> But investors are knocking back stocks of these high fliers today after extended runs brought high valuations.</p><p><blockquote>但在长期上涨带来高估值后，投资者今天正在回调这些雄心勃勃的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Li Auto reported a surprise positive net income of $16.5 million for its fourth quarter. While NIO competes with LI Auto, the companies offer slightly different products. Li's One SUV was designed to serve a specific niche in China. It includes a small gasoline engine onboard that can be used to recharge its batteries, allowing for longer travel between charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车公布第四季度净利润出人意料地达到1650万美元。虽然蔚来与理想汽车竞争，但两家公司提供的产品略有不同。Li的One SUV是为中国特定的利基市场而设计的。它包括一个小型汽油发动机，可用于为电池充电，允许在充电站之间进行更长时间的旅行。</blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 7,225 vehicles&nbsp;in January 2021 and 17,353 in its fourth quarter. These represented 352% and 111% year-over-year gains, respectively. NIO recently announced its first luxury sedan, the ET7, which will also have a new longer-range battery option.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2021年1月交付了7,225辆汽车，第四季度交付了17,353辆汽车。同比分别增长352%和111%。蔚来最近宣布了其首款豪华轿车ET7，该车还将配备新的远程电池选项。</blockquote></p><p> Including today's drop, shares have already fallen more than 20% from highs earlier this year. NIO's earnings on Monday could help soothe investor anxiety over the stock's high valuation. But for now, a correction remains under way.</p><p><blockquote>包括今天的下跌在内，股价已较今年早些时候的高点下跌超过20%。蔚来周一的财报可能有助于缓解投资者对该股高估值的焦虑。但目前，调整仍在进行中。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-nio-stock-dropped-thursday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-nio-stock-dropped-thursday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111681080","content_text":"Positive earnings from a Chinese EV peer hasn't helped stocks in the sector today.\nWhat happened\nMany stocks in the electric-vehicle (EV) sector are sinking today, and Chinese EV maker NIO is no exception. With its fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings looming, shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday.\nSo what\nFellow ChineseEV maker Li Auto reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, but the results shouldn't be scaring investors in the sector. Li Auto reported a surprise profit for its fourth quarter, which could bode well for what NIO has to say when it reports on Monday, March 1.\nBut investors are knocking back stocks of these high fliers today after extended runs brought high valuations.\nNow what\nLi Auto reported a surprise positive net income of $16.5 million for its fourth quarter. While NIO competes with LI Auto, the companies offer slightly different products. Li's One SUV was designed to serve a specific niche in China. It includes a small gasoline engine onboard that can be used to recharge its batteries, allowing for longer travel between charging stations.\nNIO delivered 7,225 vehicles in January 2021 and 17,353 in its fourth quarter. These represented 352% and 111% year-over-year gains, respectively. NIO recently announced its first luxury sedan, the ET7, which will also have a new longer-range battery option.\nIncluding today's drop, shares have already fallen more than 20% from highs earlier this year. NIO's earnings on Monday could help soothe investor anxiety over the stock's high valuation. But for now, a correction remains under way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366262061,"gmtCreate":1614490711753,"gmtModify":1703477822869,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568770848498679","idStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366262061","repostId":"2114320740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363768385,"gmtCreate":1614173806047,"gmtModify":1634550881180,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568770848498679","idStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😒","listText":"😒","text":"😒","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363768385","repostId":"1197533827","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197533827","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614160523,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197533827?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 17:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197533827","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-199","content":"<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但在2001年，我们发出同样的文献，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 17:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但在2001年，我们发出同样的文献，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1197533827","content_text":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.\nIgnore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.\nChurchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”\nCCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.\nThey’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.\nReviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc. at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.\nMany questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.\nPiling into ARK\nThese days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.\nBut I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com. (I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):\n“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.\nLet me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”\nThe hangover\nTelecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.\nHere’s what George had to say in 2002:\n“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.\nMany of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.\nCCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"ARKK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385409082,"gmtCreate":1613569229846,"gmtModify":1634553122270,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568770848498679","idStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🥺","listText":"🥺","text":"🥺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385409082","repostId":"2112833386","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382174265,"gmtCreate":1613399223957,"gmtModify":1634553761452,"author":{"id":"3568770848498679","authorId":"3568770848498679","name":"BevG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568770848498679","idStr":"3568770848498679"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😑","listText":"😑","text":"😑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382174265","repostId":"2111003439","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}