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2021-10-08

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2021-10-19

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Tesla and 15 Other EV Stocks Are Worth Almost as Much as 50 Traditional Car Makers. How That Makes Sense.<blockquote>特斯拉和其他15只电动汽车股票的价值几乎相当于50家传统汽车制造商的价值。这怎么说得通。</blockquote>

2021-08-25

Wow

Novavax stock surged 5% in morning trading<blockquote>Novavax股价早盘飙升5%</blockquote>

2021-08-25

Wow

Novavax stock surged 5% in morning trading<blockquote>Novavax股价早盘飙升5%</blockquote>

2021-09-11

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2021-09-16

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U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes<blockquote>美国股市因对复苏和企业增税的担忧而收低</blockquote>

2021-10-10

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2021-10-11

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Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote>

2021-10-10

Good

3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>

2021-09-19

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US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化14周IPO周</blockquote>

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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/558.SI\">$UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED(558.SI)$</a>&nbsp;Great news for UMS investors as it is issuing bonus shares in the ratio of 1 bonus share for every 4 shares.&nbsp;&nbsp;Ex&nbsp;date is 22 October 2021.Record Date is 25 October 2021 at 5.00pm.I am certainly looking forward to this!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/558.SI\">$UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED(558.SI)$</a>&nbsp;Great news for UMS investors as it is issuing bonus shares in the ratio of 1 bonus share for every 4 shares.&nbsp;&nbsp;Ex&nbsp;date is 22 October 2021.Record Date is 25 October 2021 at 5.00pm.I am certainly looking forward to this!&nbsp;","text":"$UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED(558.SI)$ Great news for UMS investors as it is issuing bonus shares in the ratio of 1 bonus share for every 4 shares. Ex date is 22 October 2021.Record Date is 25 October 2021 at 5.00pm.I am certainly looking forward to this!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e0dceac0a4ef37df9f51280686583","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851472756","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858576454,"gmtCreate":1635093964943,"gmtModify":1635093965094,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858576454","repostId":"853121332","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":853121332,"gmtCreate":1634781234156,"gmtModify":1634865314431,"author":{"id":"3563421686188310","authorId":"3563421686188310","name":"Hopehope赋予希望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d9527ab7ac6557b84288abebb9ec540","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563421686188310","authorIdStr":"3563421686188310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>i continue to build on my Xiaomi position this morning with the view that reversal has taken place and that Xiaomi management will be able to resolve chip issues effectively into rest of the year. Stay safe and manage risk all.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>i continue to build on my Xiaomi position this morning with the view that reversal has taken place and that Xiaomi management will be able to resolve chip issues effectively into rest of the year. Stay safe and manage risk all.","text":"$XIAOMI-W(01810)$i continue to build on my Xiaomi position this morning with the view that reversal has taken place and that Xiaomi management will be able to resolve chip issues effectively into rest of the year. Stay safe and manage risk all.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853121332","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853583393,"gmtCreate":1634824264160,"gmtModify":1634824991068,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Wow]&nbsp;","listText":"[Wow]&nbsp;","text":"[Wow]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853583393","repostId":"1143424467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850448725,"gmtCreate":1634620391875,"gmtModify":1634620392043,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay&nbsp;","listText":"Okay&nbsp;","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850448725","repostId":"1123286896","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850441521,"gmtCreate":1634620300879,"gmtModify":1634620301020,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850441521","repostId":"1147398025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147398025","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634608414,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147398025?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 09:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla and 15 Other EV Stocks Are Worth Almost as Much as 50 Traditional Car Makers. How That Makes Sense.<blockquote>特斯拉和其他15只电动汽车股票的价值几乎相当于50家传统汽车制造商的价值。这怎么说得通。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147398025","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla and other electric-vehicle makers account for almost half of the value wrapped up in car-manuf","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;and other electric-vehicle makers account for almost half of the value wrapped up in car-manufacturer stocks. Does that make sense?</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商几乎占汽车制造商股票价值的一半。这有意义吗？</blockquote></p><p> Monday, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi asked that question. He’s a&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;(ticker: TSLA) bear—rating shares Sell with a $300 price target—mainly because he believes the stock is pricey. Still, EVs can be worth half of the industry if investors buy into three ideas.</p><p><blockquote>周一，伯恩斯坦分析师托尼·萨科纳吉提出了这个问题。他对特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股票给予看跌评级，目标价为300美元，主要是因为他认为该股价格昂贵。尽管如此，如果投资者接受三个想法，电动汽车的价值可能会达到整个行业的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Today, 16 EV makers—including Tesla and yet-to-be public Rivian—are worth a combined $1.14 trillion. Tesla accounts for 74% of total EV value. Four of the top 10 most valuable auto makers are EV companies including: Tesla, Rivian,BYD&nbsp;(1211.Hong Kong), and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;(NIO).</p><p><blockquote>如今，包括特斯拉和尚未上市的Rivian在内的16家电动汽车制造商的总价值为1.14万亿美元。特斯拉占电动汽车总价值的74%。十大最有价值汽车制造商中有四家是电动汽车公司，包括：特斯拉、Rivian、比亚迪（1211.Hong Kong）和蔚来（蔚来）。</blockquote></p><p> As for the makers of conventional vehicles, more than 50 auto makers are worth a combined $1.42 trillion. The most valuable traditional car companies are:Toyota Motor&nbsp;(TM),Volkswagen&nbsp;(VOW3.Germany),Daimler&nbsp;(DAI.Germany), and&nbsp;General Motors&nbsp;(GM).</p><p><blockquote>至于传统汽车制造商，50多家汽车制造商的总价值为1.42万亿美元。最有价值的传统车企是：丰田汽车(TM)、大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)、戴姆勒(DAI.Germany)、通用汽车(GM)。</blockquote></p><p> Sales by the traditional companies still dominates unit volume, selling about 99% of the cars globally—97% of those are gasoline-powered, and 2% are EV. The EV pure-plays sell the remaining 1% worldwide.</p><p><blockquote>传统公司的销量仍然主导着销量，在全球销售了约99%的汽车，其中97%是汽油动力汽车，2%是电动汽车。纯电动汽车在全球范围内销售剩余的1%。</blockquote></p><p> “The thinking, of course, is that pure-play EV vendors will ultimately come to dominate the automotive world,” wrote Sacconaghi in a Monday report.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉在周一的一份报告中写道：“当然，我们的想法是纯电动汽车供应商最终将主导汽车世界。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the first thing investors need to believe to justify EV valuations. Sacconaghi points out that 2014 pure-play EV companies accounted for 14% of electric-car sales. That’s 28% today. Pure-play EV companies’ market share is growing.</p><p><blockquote>这是投资者需要相信的第一件事，以证明电动汽车估值的合理性。萨科纳吉指出，2014年纯电动汽车公司占电动汽车销量的14%。今天是28%。纯电动汽车公司的市场份额正在增长。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the second belief required to stay bullish on EV makers’ stocks—that market share will continue to improve. “We suspect the market believes …that traditional OEMs will not be able to deliver competitive EV offerings in the future,” adds the analyst in his report. OEM is short for original equipment manufacturer, industry jargon for auto maker.</p><p><blockquote>这是保持看好电动汽车制造商股票所需的第二个信念——市场份额将继续提高。这位分析师在报告中补充道：“我们怀疑市场认为……传统原始设备制造商未来将无法提供有竞争力的电动汽车产品。”OEM是原始设备制造商的缩写，是汽车制造商的行业术语。</blockquote></p><p> The final thing investors need to believe is that EVs will be more profitable, per car, than conventional vehicles. EV companies tend to sell direct—which can help profitability. EV makers are also the leaders in selling add-on subscription based services. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Capability, or FSD, is probably the best example. Tesla sells the higher levels of its autonomous-driving software as a monthly subscription or for $10,000.</p><p><blockquote>投资者需要相信的最后一件事是，电动汽车的每辆车利润将比传统汽车更高。电动汽车公司倾向于直接销售，这有助于提高盈利能力。电动汽车制造商也是销售附加订阅服务的领导者。特斯拉的全自动驾驶能力（FSD）可能是最好的例子。特斯拉以每月订阅或10,000美元的价格出售更高级别的自动驾驶软件。</blockquote></p><p> The mix of volume and profit growth driven by superior products could justify valuations, but Sacconaghi isn’t a believer. “Our contention is that the automotive industry is an increasingly global and hypercompetitive industry and we believe that surplus profits and technology innovation will likely be competed away over time.”</p><p><blockquote>优质产品推动的销量和利润增长的组合可能证明估值是合理的，但萨科纳吉并不相信这一点。“我们的论点是，汽车行业是一个日益全球化和竞争激烈的行业，我们相信，随着时间的推移，剩余利润和技术创新可能会被竞争夺走。”</blockquote></p><p> His views of the industry is one of the reasons he calls Tesla valuation “too rich.”</p><p><blockquote>他对该行业的看法是他对评级·特斯拉估值“过高”的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Time will tell who is right. Sacconaghi’s target price still implies Tesla should be the world’s most valuable car company, just not two to three times the value of Toyota.</p><p><blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。萨科纳吉的目标价仍然意味着特斯拉应该是世界上最有价值的汽车公司，只是不是丰田价值的两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock has been on a tear of late, adding 34% over the past three months as investors have become more bullish about third quarter earnings due out on Wednesday evening. Shares have gained another 3.2% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对周三晚间公布的第三季度财报更加看好，特斯拉股价最近一直在上涨，过去三个月上涨了34%。周一股价又上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla and 15 Other EV Stocks Are Worth Almost as Much as 50 Traditional Car Makers. How That Makes Sense.<blockquote>特斯拉和其他15只电动汽车股票的价值几乎相当于50家传统汽车制造商的价值。这怎么说得通。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla and 15 Other EV Stocks Are Worth Almost as Much as 50 Traditional Car Makers. How That Makes Sense.<blockquote>特斯拉和其他15只电动汽车股票的价值几乎相当于50家传统汽车制造商的价值。这怎么说得通。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-19 09:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;and other electric-vehicle makers account for almost half of the value wrapped up in car-manufacturer stocks. Does that make sense?</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商几乎占汽车制造商股票价值的一半。这有意义吗？</blockquote></p><p> Monday, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi asked that question. He’s a&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;(ticker: TSLA) bear—rating shares Sell with a $300 price target—mainly because he believes the stock is pricey. Still, EVs can be worth half of the industry if investors buy into three ideas.</p><p><blockquote>周一，伯恩斯坦分析师托尼·萨科纳吉提出了这个问题。他对特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股票给予看跌评级，目标价为300美元，主要是因为他认为该股价格昂贵。尽管如此，如果投资者接受三个想法，电动汽车的价值可能会达到整个行业的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Today, 16 EV makers—including Tesla and yet-to-be public Rivian—are worth a combined $1.14 trillion. Tesla accounts for 74% of total EV value. Four of the top 10 most valuable auto makers are EV companies including: Tesla, Rivian,BYD&nbsp;(1211.Hong Kong), and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;(NIO).</p><p><blockquote>如今，包括特斯拉和尚未上市的Rivian在内的16家电动汽车制造商的总价值为1.14万亿美元。特斯拉占电动汽车总价值的74%。十大最有价值汽车制造商中有四家是电动汽车公司，包括：特斯拉、Rivian、比亚迪（1211.Hong Kong）和蔚来（蔚来）。</blockquote></p><p> As for the makers of conventional vehicles, more than 50 auto makers are worth a combined $1.42 trillion. The most valuable traditional car companies are:Toyota Motor&nbsp;(TM),Volkswagen&nbsp;(VOW3.Germany),Daimler&nbsp;(DAI.Germany), and&nbsp;General Motors&nbsp;(GM).</p><p><blockquote>至于传统汽车制造商，50多家汽车制造商的总价值为1.42万亿美元。最有价值的传统车企是：丰田汽车(TM)、大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)、戴姆勒(DAI.Germany)、通用汽车(GM)。</blockquote></p><p> Sales by the traditional companies still dominates unit volume, selling about 99% of the cars globally—97% of those are gasoline-powered, and 2% are EV. The EV pure-plays sell the remaining 1% worldwide.</p><p><blockquote>传统公司的销量仍然主导着销量，在全球销售了约99%的汽车，其中97%是汽油动力汽车，2%是电动汽车。纯电动汽车在全球范围内销售剩余的1%。</blockquote></p><p> “The thinking, of course, is that pure-play EV vendors will ultimately come to dominate the automotive world,” wrote Sacconaghi in a Monday report.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉在周一的一份报告中写道：“当然，我们的想法是纯电动汽车供应商最终将主导汽车世界。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the first thing investors need to believe to justify EV valuations. Sacconaghi points out that 2014 pure-play EV companies accounted for 14% of electric-car sales. That’s 28% today. Pure-play EV companies’ market share is growing.</p><p><blockquote>这是投资者需要相信的第一件事，以证明电动汽车估值的合理性。萨科纳吉指出，2014年纯电动汽车公司占电动汽车销量的14%。今天是28%。纯电动汽车公司的市场份额正在增长。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the second belief required to stay bullish on EV makers’ stocks—that market share will continue to improve. “We suspect the market believes …that traditional OEMs will not be able to deliver competitive EV offerings in the future,” adds the analyst in his report. OEM is short for original equipment manufacturer, industry jargon for auto maker.</p><p><blockquote>这是保持看好电动汽车制造商股票所需的第二个信念——市场份额将继续提高。这位分析师在报告中补充道：“我们怀疑市场认为……传统原始设备制造商未来将无法提供有竞争力的电动汽车产品。”OEM是原始设备制造商的缩写，是汽车制造商的行业术语。</blockquote></p><p> The final thing investors need to believe is that EVs will be more profitable, per car, than conventional vehicles. EV companies tend to sell direct—which can help profitability. EV makers are also the leaders in selling add-on subscription based services. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Capability, or FSD, is probably the best example. Tesla sells the higher levels of its autonomous-driving software as a monthly subscription or for $10,000.</p><p><blockquote>投资者需要相信的最后一件事是，电动汽车的每辆车利润将比传统汽车更高。电动汽车公司倾向于直接销售，这有助于提高盈利能力。电动汽车制造商也是销售附加订阅服务的领导者。特斯拉的全自动驾驶能力（FSD）可能是最好的例子。特斯拉以每月订阅或10,000美元的价格出售更高级别的自动驾驶软件。</blockquote></p><p> The mix of volume and profit growth driven by superior products could justify valuations, but Sacconaghi isn’t a believer. “Our contention is that the automotive industry is an increasingly global and hypercompetitive industry and we believe that surplus profits and technology innovation will likely be competed away over time.”</p><p><blockquote>优质产品推动的销量和利润增长的组合可能证明估值是合理的，但萨科纳吉并不相信这一点。“我们的论点是，汽车行业是一个日益全球化和竞争激烈的行业，我们相信，随着时间的推移，剩余利润和技术创新可能会被竞争夺走。”</blockquote></p><p> His views of the industry is one of the reasons he calls Tesla valuation “too rich.”</p><p><blockquote>他对该行业的看法是他对评级·特斯拉估值“过高”的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Time will tell who is right. Sacconaghi’s target price still implies Tesla should be the world’s most valuable car company, just not two to three times the value of Toyota.</p><p><blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。萨科纳吉的目标价仍然意味着特斯拉应该是世界上最有价值的汽车公司，只是不是丰田价值的两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock has been on a tear of late, adding 34% over the past three months as investors have become more bullish about third quarter earnings due out on Wednesday evening. Shares have gained another 3.2% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对周三晚间公布的第三季度财报更加看好，特斯拉股价最近一直在上涨，过去三个月上涨了34%。周一股价又上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-nio-51634569822?mod=hp_DAY_6\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","TSLA":"特斯拉","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","TM":"丰田汽车","VLKAF":"Volkswagen AG","GM":"通用汽车","DDAIF":"戴姆勒汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-nio-51634569822?mod=hp_DAY_6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147398025","content_text":"Tesla and other electric-vehicle makers account for almost half of the value wrapped up in car-manufacturer stocks. Does that make sense?\nMonday, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi asked that question. He’s a Tesla (ticker: TSLA) bear—rating shares Sell with a $300 price target—mainly because he believes the stock is pricey. Still, EVs can be worth half of the industry if investors buy into three ideas.\nToday, 16 EV makers—including Tesla and yet-to-be public Rivian—are worth a combined $1.14 trillion. Tesla accounts for 74% of total EV value. Four of the top 10 most valuable auto makers are EV companies including: Tesla, Rivian,BYD (1211.Hong Kong), and NIO (NIO).\nAs for the makers of conventional vehicles, more than 50 auto makers are worth a combined $1.42 trillion. The most valuable traditional car companies are:Toyota Motor (TM),Volkswagen (VOW3.Germany),Daimler (DAI.Germany), and General Motors (GM).\nSales by the traditional companies still dominates unit volume, selling about 99% of the cars globally—97% of those are gasoline-powered, and 2% are EV. The EV pure-plays sell the remaining 1% worldwide.\n“The thinking, of course, is that pure-play EV vendors will ultimately come to dominate the automotive world,” wrote Sacconaghi in a Monday report.\nThat’s the first thing investors need to believe to justify EV valuations. Sacconaghi points out that 2014 pure-play EV companies accounted for 14% of electric-car sales. That’s 28% today. Pure-play EV companies’ market share is growing.\nThat’s the second belief required to stay bullish on EV makers’ stocks—that market share will continue to improve. “We suspect the market believes …that traditional OEMs will not be able to deliver competitive EV offerings in the future,” adds the analyst in his report. OEM is short for original equipment manufacturer, industry jargon for auto maker.\nThe final thing investors need to believe is that EVs will be more profitable, per car, than conventional vehicles. EV companies tend to sell direct—which can help profitability. EV makers are also the leaders in selling add-on subscription based services. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Capability, or FSD, is probably the best example. Tesla sells the higher levels of its autonomous-driving software as a monthly subscription or for $10,000.\nThe mix of volume and profit growth driven by superior products could justify valuations, but Sacconaghi isn’t a believer. “Our contention is that the automotive industry is an increasingly global and hypercompetitive industry and we believe that surplus profits and technology innovation will likely be competed away over time.”\nHis views of the industry is one of the reasons he calls Tesla valuation “too rich.”\nTime will tell who is right. Sacconaghi’s target price still implies Tesla should be the world’s most valuable car company, just not two to three times the value of Toyota.\nTesla stock has been on a tear of late, adding 34% over the past three months as investors have become more bullish about third quarter earnings due out on Wednesday evening. Shares have gained another 3.2% Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"DDAIF":0.9,"LI":0.9,"GM":0.9,"TM":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"01211":0.9,"VLKAF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824484390,"gmtCreate":1634346875469,"gmtModify":1634346875591,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AJBU.SI\">$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$</a>[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AJBU.SI\">$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$</a>[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$[Strong]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7984fd0347283d43ab46909bea86249d","width":"1125","height":"2539"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824484390","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822205584,"gmtCreate":1634132672562,"gmtModify":1634132672616,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822205584","repostId":"1111680024","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111680024","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634131933,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111680024?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 21:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks open tentatively higher Wednesday after CPI report<blockquote>CPI报告公布后，周三股市试探性高开</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111680024","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The S&P 500 ticked higher Wednesday as investors digested fresh inflation data and third-quarter ear","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 ticked higher Wednesday as investors digested fresh inflation data and third-quarter earnings reports.</p><p><blockquote>随着投资者消化新的通胀数据和第三季度收益报告，标普500周三走高。</blockquote></p><p> The broad index inched up 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 13 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>综合指数小幅上涨0.2%。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨13点。纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a933939ebe5137c77b92aca3d3ae5e18\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The consumer price index&nbsp;jumped 0.4% in September from the month prior and 5.4% year over year, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Economists expected to see a month-to-month increase of 0.3% or annualized rate of 5.3%, according to Dow Jones.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周三报告称，9月份消费者价格指数环比上涨0.4%，同比上涨5.4%。根据道琼斯的数据，经济学家预计环比增长0.3%，年化增长率为5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding energy and food, the core CPI rose 0.2% month over month and 4% over the last 12 months, against respective estimates for 0.3% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>不包括能源和食品，核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，过去12个月上涨4%，而预期分别为0.3%和4%。</blockquote></p><p> Third-quarter earnings season kicked off on Wednesday with JPMorgan Chase, which said that&nbsp;quarterly profit topped expectations&nbsp;following a boost from better-than-expected loan losses. Revenue for the largest U.S. bank by assets also came in higher than expected.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通第三季度财报季于周三拉开帷幕，该公司表示，在贷款损失好于预期的提振下，季度利润超出预期。这家美国资产最大银行的收入也高于预期。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan shares fell roughly 1% following the report.</p><p><blockquote>报告发布后，摩根大通股价下跌约1%。</blockquote></p><p> Delta Air Lines also reported&nbsp;financial results before the opening bell on Wednesday. The company posted higher-than-expected revenue and its first quarterly profit without counting federal aid since the start of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达美航空也在周三开盘前公布了财务业绩。该公司公布了高于预期的收入和自大流行开始以来的首个季度利润，不包括联邦援助。</blockquote></p><p> However, the airline said higher costs of fuel and other expenses will pressure its fourth-quarter bottom line. Shares of Delta shed more than 3% in morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该航空公司表示，燃油成本和其他费用的上升将给其第四季度的利润带来压力。达美航空股价早盘下跌超过3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks open tentatively higher Wednesday after CPI report<blockquote>CPI报告公布后，周三股市试探性高开</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks open tentatively higher Wednesday after CPI report<blockquote>CPI报告公布后，周三股市试探性高开</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-13 21:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 ticked higher Wednesday as investors digested fresh inflation data and third-quarter earnings reports.</p><p><blockquote>随着投资者消化新的通胀数据和第三季度收益报告，标普500周三走高。</blockquote></p><p> The broad index inched up 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 13 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>综合指数小幅上涨0.2%。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨13点。纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a933939ebe5137c77b92aca3d3ae5e18\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The consumer price index&nbsp;jumped 0.4% in September from the month prior and 5.4% year over year, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Economists expected to see a month-to-month increase of 0.3% or annualized rate of 5.3%, according to Dow Jones.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周三报告称，9月份消费者价格指数环比上涨0.4%，同比上涨5.4%。根据道琼斯的数据，经济学家预计环比增长0.3%，年化增长率为5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding energy and food, the core CPI rose 0.2% month over month and 4% over the last 12 months, against respective estimates for 0.3% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>不包括能源和食品，核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，过去12个月上涨4%，而预期分别为0.3%和4%。</blockquote></p><p> Third-quarter earnings season kicked off on Wednesday with JPMorgan Chase, which said that&nbsp;quarterly profit topped expectations&nbsp;following a boost from better-than-expected loan losses. Revenue for the largest U.S. bank by assets also came in higher than expected.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通第三季度财报季于周三拉开帷幕，该公司表示，在贷款损失好于预期的提振下，季度利润超出预期。这家美国资产最大银行的收入也高于预期。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan shares fell roughly 1% following the report.</p><p><blockquote>报告发布后，摩根大通股价下跌约1%。</blockquote></p><p> Delta Air Lines also reported&nbsp;financial results before the opening bell on Wednesday. The company posted higher-than-expected revenue and its first quarterly profit without counting federal aid since the start of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达美航空也在周三开盘前公布了财务业绩。该公司公布了高于预期的收入和自大流行开始以来的首个季度利润，不包括联邦援助。</blockquote></p><p> However, the airline said higher costs of fuel and other expenses will pressure its fourth-quarter bottom line. Shares of Delta shed more than 3% in morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该航空公司表示，燃油成本和其他费用的上升将给其第四季度的利润带来压力。达美航空股价早盘下跌超过3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111680024","content_text":"The S&P 500 ticked higher Wednesday as investors digested fresh inflation data and third-quarter earnings reports.\nThe broad index inched up 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 13 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%.\n\nThe consumer price index jumped 0.4% in September from the month prior and 5.4% year over year, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Economists expected to see a month-to-month increase of 0.3% or annualized rate of 5.3%, according to Dow Jones.\nExcluding energy and food, the core CPI rose 0.2% month over month and 4% over the last 12 months, against respective estimates for 0.3% and 4%.\nThird-quarter earnings season kicked off on Wednesday with JPMorgan Chase, which said that quarterly profit topped expectations following a boost from better-than-expected loan losses. Revenue for the largest U.S. bank by assets also came in higher than expected.\nJPMorgan shares fell roughly 1% following the report.\nDelta Air Lines also reported financial results before the opening bell on Wednesday. The company posted higher-than-expected revenue and its first quarterly profit without counting federal aid since the start of the pandemic.\nHowever, the airline said higher costs of fuel and other expenses will pressure its fourth-quarter bottom line. Shares of Delta shed more than 3% in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826961661,"gmtCreate":1633965352408,"gmtModify":1633965352454,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826961661","repostId":"1174273121","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174273121","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633965002,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174273121?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174273121","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalabilit","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.</li>  <li>The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4e9c2f1150ac54e1f764f98c0880f1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1039\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从Visa的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和资本边际效率。</li><li>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).</p><p><blockquote>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。对于规模如此惊人的企业来说，保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是根据ROCE调整的估值以及与其他示例性可扩展股票（例如FAAMG股票和巴菲特风格股票）相比的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> V’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.</p><p><blockquote>V的护城河在于其规模和可扩展性，下面两张图表最好地展示了这一点。第一张图表显示了2017年至2019年全球流通的信用卡、借记卡和预付卡数量，并对2023年和2025年进行了预测。2019年，全球有228亿张信用卡、借记卡和预付卡在流通。到2023年，这一数字将达到293.1亿，比2019年的水平增长28%。到2025年，这一数字将进一步增加，超过300亿，比2019年的水平增长34%。也就是说，到2025年流通卡总量将增长1/3以上。数字化交易的趋势势不可挡。</blockquote></p><p> The second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.</p><p><blockquote>第二张图表显示，V作为该领域的领导者，将从这一长期趋势中受益最多。V是全球最大的零售电子支付网络，提供处理服务和支付产品平台。这包括信用卡、借记卡、预付费和商业支付，这些支付以Visa、Visa Electron、Interlink和PLUS品牌提供。Visa/PLUS是全球最大的ATM网络之一。V为200多个国家和地区的数字支付提供便利。它拥有36亿张流通卡，约占全球流通卡总数的16%。它处理了令人难以置信的交易量——2060亿笔支付交易，2020年总交易额为12.5万亿美元——这是支付网络无可争议的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e261998de072e355b6f039912d0f1453\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/036bc8c94696fcfd8ed3403b699534c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visa USA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国签证。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于所谓的“网络效应”，这种主导地位在未来不太可能改变（除非任何重大监管或反托拉斯法发生变化）。网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值。并不是每个网络都享有这种神奇的特性，事实上，大多数网络的边际回报率是递减的——即，额外回报随着网络变大而减少——这将在后面详细说明。连锁餐厅网络就是一个例子。随着网络变得更大，节点开始相互竞争客户，回报减少。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>但某些网络，如V提供的服务，享有这种神奇的特性——网络越大，利润就越高。这个概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这个概念没有什么新意。但是互联网时代极大地放大了网络效应的威力。一旦建立了线索——不管出于什么原因——网络效应就会开始发挥作用，接管并自我复合。</blockquote></p><p> It is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个自我维持的正反馈循环：这个网络中更多的用户将带来更多的便利、更好的效率、更低的成本，这将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值，这反过来将吸引更多的新用户和客户加入，并使现有用户更难离开，这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。这种反馈将反映在非常高的已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）中，这将在后面看到。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，就像所有美好的事情最终都会结束一样，上述网络效应的好处也会结束。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们业务是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看看收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p> And the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，本文的其余部分将研究这两个方面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my&nbsp;earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对ROCE分析细节感兴趣的读者可以在我之前的文章中找到。在这里，我将在下面的图表中总结结果。在这些结果中，我考虑了实际使用的以下项目资本a)营运资本（包括应付账款、应收账款、库存），B)不动产、厂房和设备总额，C)资本化的研发费用，以及D)无形账面价值，主要包括此类业务的知识产权和专利。</blockquote></p><p> As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.</p><p><blockquote>正如所见，它在过去十年中能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平：平均约103%。为了正确看待事情，下图将V的ROCE与FAAMG股票进行了比较，FAAMG股票是一组将网络效应发挥到极致的企业。可以看出，V在其中获得了极具竞争力的ROCE——仅次于苹果(AAPL)。平均而言，每1美元的收益再投资将推动超过1美元的未来收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/877e3bb73de3e6c4fbab1a0133f74464\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f25b4c6dc0c7ee738ac345c3888ae11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</p><p><blockquote>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE指的是这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> V’s MROCE</p><p><blockquote>V的MROCE</blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。而如下图所示，V在这样一个阶段似乎就是这样一个业务。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表显示了近年来V的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量收益或所用资本出现大幅波动的年份，采用多年运行平均值来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> Before we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.</p><p><blockquote>在我们开始解释结果之前，让我首先澄清分析边际资本回报率的困难以及我在这里使用的方法的局限性。首先，从数学上讲，估计变化率（例如，MROCE本质上是什么）比平均变化（ROCE本质上是什么）要困难得多。估计后者需要除以两个大数，不确定性很小。估计前者需要除以两个小数字，财务数据中的不确定性可以被放大。其次，对企业的一些资本投资可能需要多年（超过3年）才能取得成果（或失败）。因此，隔离和跟踪某一年投资产生的边际回报本质上是困难的。尽管大多数项目应该在3年内开始显示结果（无论是好的还是坏的），并且这种方法应该能够捕捉边际回报的主导趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.</p><p><blockquote>有了以上的了解，我们来仔细看看结果。首先，请注意，本世纪初极高的MROCE再次有力地说明了从根本上支持业务的网络效应和长期趋势。商业模式太好了。</blockquote></p><p> The results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.</p><p><blockquote>图表中的结果还显示，在这个阶段，V实际上能够保持实际上高于近年来平均ROCE的MROCE。可以看出，近年来ROCE平均为103%，MROCE平均为157%。这明显低于本世纪初350%以上的水平——重力总是试图迎头赶上。但仍远高于ROCE。而且差距超过50%，太大了，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明V还没有进入收益递减阶段——重力还没有赶上。而如果目前的MROCE继续下去，V的ROCE将维持目前的高水平，甚至进一步扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cea9c214b6d0dd15d8f9c5c1392272e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> After the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.</p><p><blockquote>以上讨论完其盈利持续性，我们再来看看估值。在目前的价格水平上，V的PE约为44倍，FW PE约为39.6倍。估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都很高。例如，与FAAMG pack相比，V目前的估值仅低于亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率，高于所有其他公司。</blockquote></p><p> It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.</p><p><blockquote>如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，下一张图表还将根据ROCE调整后的V估值与同行进行了比较。如果您熟悉巴菲特的持股，您就会认识到这张图表中的股票代表了BRK的一些大型持股。</blockquote></p><p> I am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定当我们在这张图表上添加更多数据点时，情况会是什么样子（我确实计划组织我对其他BRK主要持股的笔记，并在这张图表上添加更多数据点）。但凭借我现在掌握的几个数据点，我忍不住画出/看到了绿线——我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线。它是连接艾伯维公司（ABBV）和苹果公司的一条线——物美价廉的好企业和高价的高质量企业。因此，从价值投资者的角度来看，只有沿着这条线或低于这条线进行投资才有意义。因为沿着这条线或以下的投资代表了质量和价格之间的权衡，相当于或优于ABBV或AAPL。投资高于这条线是没有意义的，因为高于这条线的任何东西都代表着质量和价格之间的劣质权衡——我们最好只投资ABBV和AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，V目前远高于绿线，表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据其ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9fbfdb9a53f0dac2386fcfaf067800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.</p><p><blockquote>长期催化剂是文章开头提到的数字化交易趋势。在我看来，这个趋势是不可阻挡的。电子商务平台的广泛部署将进一步加速这一转变。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:</p><p><blockquote>短期内最重要的催化剂，同时也是风险，是经济复苏的方向和步伐。正如首席财务官所评论的，如果经济活动，尤其是旅游活动恢复到正常水平，V将受益匪浅：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"    <i>Vasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)</i>  In terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by&nbsp;Natalie Koo.</p><p><blockquote>“自从热门旅游目的地开放边境以来，我们已经看到了直接的影响。希腊在4月份开放了边境，截至6月底，入境持卡消费相对于2019年的水平增长了近30个百分点。法国于6月9日开放，截至6月底，入境持卡量相对于2019年增长了近20个百分点...自4月份以来，美国在墨西哥持卡跨境消费增长了近50个百分点，达到2019年水平的170%以上。”<i>Vasant Prabhu，Visa首席财务官（2021财年第三季度看涨期权收益）</i>就风险而言，我看到了前面提到的估值风险。就业务基本面而言，我确实认为短期甚至长期没有任何风险。在我看来，上述疫情的经济复苏并不是真正的根本性风险。即使它朝着错误的方向发展和/或以比预期更慢的速度发展，对V来说也最多是暂时的打嗝。商业模式太健壮，可扩展性太强。从真正的长期来看，我们只能猜测。从长远来看，金融科技和加密货币的破坏肯定是一个潜在的风险。我建议对这些讨论感兴趣的读者阅读Natalie Koo发表的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion and final thought</p><p><blockquote>结论和最后的思考</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.</li>  <li>And the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</li> </ul> As such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>ROCE平均约为103%，与表现优异的股票（典型的可扩展股票）相比非常有利。</li><li>近年来MROCE平均为157%。所以这个结果表明V还没有达到收益递减的阶段——重力还没有赶上。对于一个规模如此惊人（去年处理了15万亿美元的交易量）的企业来说，仍然保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。V目前远高于价值线，这表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</li></ul>因此，我的最终结论是，它仍然是一个完全可扩展的业务，但它的定价不仅仅是完美的。此时的投资需要一些时间、耐心和承诺，让增长赶上估值。它只适合长期承诺的投资者（至少有5年以上的时间范围），他们可以坚持下去，不受任何潜在的近期估值波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-11 23:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.</li>  <li>The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4e9c2f1150ac54e1f764f98c0880f1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1039\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从Visa的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和资本边际效率。</li><li>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).</p><p><blockquote>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。对于规模如此惊人的企业来说，保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是根据ROCE调整的估值以及与其他示例性可扩展股票（例如FAAMG股票和巴菲特风格股票）相比的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> V’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.</p><p><blockquote>V的护城河在于其规模和可扩展性，下面两张图表最好地展示了这一点。第一张图表显示了2017年至2019年全球流通的信用卡、借记卡和预付卡数量，并对2023年和2025年进行了预测。2019年，全球有228亿张信用卡、借记卡和预付卡在流通。到2023年，这一数字将达到293.1亿，比2019年的水平增长28%。到2025年，这一数字将进一步增加，超过300亿，比2019年的水平增长34%。也就是说，到2025年流通卡总量将增长1/3以上。数字化交易的趋势势不可挡。</blockquote></p><p> The second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.</p><p><blockquote>第二张图表显示，V作为该领域的领导者，将从这一长期趋势中受益最多。V是全球最大的零售电子支付网络，提供处理服务和支付产品平台。这包括信用卡、借记卡、预付费和商业支付，这些支付以Visa、Visa Electron、Interlink和PLUS品牌提供。Visa/PLUS是全球最大的ATM网络之一。V为200多个国家和地区的数字支付提供便利。它拥有36亿张流通卡，约占全球流通卡总数的16%。它处理了令人难以置信的交易量——2060亿笔支付交易，2020年总交易额为12.5万亿美元——这是支付网络无可争议的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e261998de072e355b6f039912d0f1453\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/036bc8c94696fcfd8ed3403b699534c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visa USA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国签证。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于所谓的“网络效应”，这种主导地位在未来不太可能改变（除非任何重大监管或反托拉斯法发生变化）。网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值。并不是每个网络都享有这种神奇的特性，事实上，大多数网络的边际回报率是递减的——即，额外回报随着网络变大而减少——这将在后面详细说明。连锁餐厅网络就是一个例子。随着网络变得更大，节点开始相互竞争客户，回报减少。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>但某些网络，如V提供的服务，享有这种神奇的特性——网络越大，利润就越高。这个概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这个概念没有什么新意。但是互联网时代极大地放大了网络效应的威力。一旦建立了线索——不管出于什么原因——网络效应就会开始发挥作用，接管并自我复合。</blockquote></p><p> It is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个自我维持的正反馈循环：这个网络中更多的用户将带来更多的便利、更好的效率、更低的成本，这将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值，这反过来将吸引更多的新用户和客户加入，并使现有用户更难离开，这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。这种反馈将反映在非常高的已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）中，这将在后面看到。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，就像所有美好的事情最终都会结束一样，上述网络效应的好处也会结束。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们业务是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看看收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p> And the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，本文的其余部分将研究这两个方面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my&nbsp;earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对ROCE分析细节感兴趣的读者可以在我之前的文章中找到。在这里，我将在下面的图表中总结结果。在这些结果中，我考虑了实际使用的以下项目资本a)营运资本（包括应付账款、应收账款、库存），B)不动产、厂房和设备总额，C)资本化的研发费用，以及D)无形账面价值，主要包括此类业务的知识产权和专利。</blockquote></p><p> As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.</p><p><blockquote>正如所见，它在过去十年中能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平：平均约103%。为了正确看待事情，下图将V的ROCE与FAAMG股票进行了比较，FAAMG股票是一组将网络效应发挥到极致的企业。可以看出，V在其中获得了极具竞争力的ROCE——仅次于苹果(AAPL)。平均而言，每1美元的收益再投资将推动超过1美元的未来收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/877e3bb73de3e6c4fbab1a0133f74464\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f25b4c6dc0c7ee738ac345c3888ae11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</p><p><blockquote>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE指的是这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> V’s MROCE</p><p><blockquote>V的MROCE</blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。而如下图所示，V在这样一个阶段似乎就是这样一个业务。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表显示了近年来V的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量收益或所用资本出现大幅波动的年份，采用多年运行平均值来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> Before we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.</p><p><blockquote>在我们开始解释结果之前，让我首先澄清分析边际资本回报率的困难以及我在这里使用的方法的局限性。首先，从数学上讲，估计变化率（例如，MROCE本质上是什么）比平均变化（ROCE本质上是什么）要困难得多。估计后者需要除以两个大数，不确定性很小。估计前者需要除以两个小数字，财务数据中的不确定性可以被放大。其次，对企业的一些资本投资可能需要多年（超过3年）才能取得成果（或失败）。因此，隔离和跟踪某一年投资产生的边际回报本质上是困难的。尽管大多数项目应该在3年内开始显示结果（无论是好的还是坏的），并且这种方法应该能够捕捉边际回报的主导趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.</p><p><blockquote>有了以上的了解，我们来仔细看看结果。首先，请注意，本世纪初极高的MROCE再次有力地说明了从根本上支持业务的网络效应和长期趋势。商业模式太好了。</blockquote></p><p> The results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.</p><p><blockquote>图表中的结果还显示，在这个阶段，V实际上能够保持实际上高于近年来平均ROCE的MROCE。可以看出，近年来ROCE平均为103%，MROCE平均为157%。这明显低于本世纪初350%以上的水平——重力总是试图迎头赶上。但仍远高于ROCE。而且差距超过50%，太大了，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明V还没有进入收益递减阶段——重力还没有赶上。而如果目前的MROCE继续下去，V的ROCE将维持目前的高水平，甚至进一步扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cea9c214b6d0dd15d8f9c5c1392272e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> After the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.</p><p><blockquote>以上讨论完其盈利持续性，我们再来看看估值。在目前的价格水平上，V的PE约为44倍，FW PE约为39.6倍。估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都很高。例如，与FAAMG pack相比，V目前的估值仅低于亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率，高于所有其他公司。</blockquote></p><p> It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.</p><p><blockquote>如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，下一张图表还将根据ROCE调整后的V估值与同行进行了比较。如果您熟悉巴菲特的持股，您就会认识到这张图表中的股票代表了BRK的一些大型持股。</blockquote></p><p> I am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定当我们在这张图表上添加更多数据点时，情况会是什么样子（我确实计划组织我对其他BRK主要持股的笔记，并在这张图表上添加更多数据点）。但凭借我现在掌握的几个数据点，我忍不住画出/看到了绿线——我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线。它是连接艾伯维公司（ABBV）和苹果公司的一条线——物美价廉的好企业和高价的高质量企业。因此，从价值投资者的角度来看，只有沿着这条线或低于这条线进行投资才有意义。因为沿着这条线或以下的投资代表了质量和价格之间的权衡，相当于或优于ABBV或AAPL。投资高于这条线是没有意义的，因为高于这条线的任何东西都代表着质量和价格之间的劣质权衡——我们最好只投资ABBV和AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，V目前远高于绿线，表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据其ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9fbfdb9a53f0dac2386fcfaf067800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.</p><p><blockquote>长期催化剂是文章开头提到的数字化交易趋势。在我看来，这个趋势是不可阻挡的。电子商务平台的广泛部署将进一步加速这一转变。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:</p><p><blockquote>短期内最重要的催化剂，同时也是风险，是经济复苏的方向和步伐。正如首席财务官所评论的，如果经济活动，尤其是旅游活动恢复到正常水平，V将受益匪浅：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"    <i>Vasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)</i>  In terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by&nbsp;Natalie Koo.</p><p><blockquote>“自从热门旅游目的地开放边境以来，我们已经看到了直接的影响。希腊在4月份开放了边境，截至6月底，入境持卡消费相对于2019年的水平增长了近30个百分点。法国于6月9日开放，截至6月底，入境持卡量相对于2019年增长了近20个百分点...自4月份以来，美国在墨西哥持卡跨境消费增长了近50个百分点，达到2019年水平的170%以上。”<i>Vasant Prabhu，Visa首席财务官（2021财年第三季度看涨期权收益）</i>就风险而言，我看到了前面提到的估值风险。就业务基本面而言，我确实认为短期甚至长期没有任何风险。在我看来，上述疫情的经济复苏并不是真正的根本性风险。即使它朝着错误的方向发展和/或以比预期更慢的速度发展，对V来说也最多是暂时的打嗝。商业模式太健壮，可扩展性太强。从真正的长期来看，我们只能猜测。从长远来看，金融科技和加密货币的破坏肯定是一个潜在的风险。我建议对这些讨论感兴趣的读者阅读Natalie Koo发表的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion and final thought</p><p><blockquote>结论和最后的思考</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.</li>  <li>And the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</li> </ul> As such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>ROCE平均约为103%，与表现优异的股票（典型的可扩展股票）相比非常有利。</li><li>近年来MROCE平均为157%。所以这个结果表明V还没有达到收益递减的阶段——重力还没有赶上。对于一个规模如此惊人（去年处理了15万亿美元的交易量）的企业来说，仍然保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。V目前远高于价值线，这表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</li></ul>因此，我的最终结论是，它仍然是一个完全可扩展的业务，但它的定价不仅仅是完美的。此时的投资需要一些时间、耐心和承诺，让增长赶上估值。它只适合长期承诺的投资者（至少有5年以上的时间范围），他们可以坚持下去，不受任何潜在的近期估值波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459179-visa-stock-scalability-and-buffett-value-line\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459179-visa-stock-scalability-and-buffett-value-line","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174273121","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.\nThis analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.\nThe results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.\nLastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nInvestment thesis\nThis article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).\nThe moat and the network effects\nV’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.\nThe second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.\nSource: Statista\nSource: Visa USA.\nFurthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.\nBut certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).\nAgain, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.\nIt is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.\nUnfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.\nTherefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.\nAnd the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.\nReturn on capital employed (“ROCE”)\nROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.\nAs seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nIntroduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)\nIn addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nA bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.\nThe next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.\nSource: author\nThe ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.\nFor investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).\nV’s MROCE\nSo for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.\nThis chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.\nBefore we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.\nWith the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.\nThe results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nValuation\nAfter the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.\nIt is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.\nI am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.\nAs you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nCatalysts and risks\nThe long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.\nThe most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:\n\n \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"\n\n\nVasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)\n\nIn terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by Natalie Koo.\nConclusion and final thought\nThis article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that:\n\nV not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.\nThe ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.\nAnd the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.\nLastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.\n\nAs such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"V":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828307076,"gmtCreate":1633839419238,"gmtModify":1633839419238,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$Novavax(NVAX)$</a>[OMG]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$Novavax(NVAX)$</a>[OMG]&nbsp;","text":"$Novavax(NVAX)$[OMG]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c06f2f3379d3c10ceb3130dfc15198a","width":"1125","height":"3588"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828307076","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828304641,"gmtCreate":1633839356392,"gmtModify":1633839356392,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828304641","repostId":"1115058296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115058296","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633787569,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115058296?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-09 21:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115058296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might","content":"<p>Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.</p><p><blockquote>大多数人听到这个消息不会感到兴奋，但股市崩盘或两位数的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌幅度有多大、持续时间有多长，或者在许多情况下是什么会促使大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分，也是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史并不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are&nbsp;no shortage of tail&nbsp;winds&nbsp;for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘不乏顺风。特别是，历史似乎并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&amp;P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&amp;P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1960年以来，广受关注的标普500在前八次熊市底部之后都表现类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总会出现一两次下跌至少10%的情况。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到17个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“颠簸”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is&nbsp;no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢高估值。截至10月4日星期一收盘，该标普500的席勒市盈率超过37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去10年经通胀调整的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率倍数，但历史非常清楚，当标普500的希勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四次发生这种情况时，基础广泛的指数至少下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's&nbsp;not normal&nbsp;for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就连保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自1995年以来，已有三起保证金债务使用量在某一年跃升至少60%的情况。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始之前。第三个例子是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>标普500似乎将出现大幅但健康的回调。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些万无一失的股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者的焦虑，但这也是买入的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长期来看，它无疑是投资者最伟大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&amp;P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个连续20年不能为投资者带来正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或调整，可以放心地买入以下三只万无一失的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have&nbsp;generated more surefire returns&nbsp;for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自1965年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监管的公司A类股(BRK.A)的平均年回报率为20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今的回报，巴菲特在56年内创造了约6000亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约3,300,000%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is&nbsp;a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管这位奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张时期往往会持续更长时间。因此，他在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合中加入了银行股、科技股和消费必需品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on&nbsp;dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不支付股息，但它有望在2021年获得超过50亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，这一收益率接近5%。由于股息股票几乎总是盈利且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，搭巴菲特的顺风车往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续向股东交付、在股市崩盘期间购买的万无一失的股票是<b>Salesforce.com</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CRM），为基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）提供软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题、监督在线营销活动以及对现有客户群进行预测性销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce&nbsp;sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share&nbsp;<b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>&nbsp;possessed last year on a&nbsp;<i>combined</i>&nbsp;basis.&nbsp; A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供了两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比份额高出整整一个百分点<b>神谕</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年在一个<i>联合的</i>基础。股市的一点动荡不会改变对CRM软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱Salesforce的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff&nbsp;has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫是一位收购专家。对MuleSoft、Tableau以及最近对Slack Technologies的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，预计未来五年年销售额将增长一倍以上，达到500亿美元。投资者购买Salesforce股票可以获得的任何折扣都应被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third&nbsp;surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises&nbsp;is&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整出现，第三只值得买入的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商YouTube的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a&nbsp;91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎不动针。根据GlobalStats的数据，9月份谷歌占据了全球搜索引擎市场92%的份额。回顾两年前，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%至93%的份额。作为广告商的明确首选，Alphabet(Elon Musk)的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet名副其实的互联网搜索垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商YouTube第二季度广告收入飙升84%，年销售额达到280亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为地球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's&nbsp;absolutely no reason&nbsp;for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至6月的季度实现了54%的销售额增长，目前年销售额超过180亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，它应该会成长为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩盘或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在您的买入名单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 21:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.</p><p><blockquote>大多数人听到这个消息不会感到兴奋，但股市崩盘或两位数的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌幅度有多大、持续时间有多长，或者在许多情况下是什么会促使大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分，也是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史并不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are&nbsp;no shortage of tail&nbsp;winds&nbsp;for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘不乏顺风。特别是，历史似乎并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&amp;P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&amp;P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1960年以来，广受关注的标普500在前八次熊市底部之后都表现类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总会出现一两次下跌至少10%的情况。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到17个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“颠簸”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is&nbsp;no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢高估值。截至10月4日星期一收盘，该标普500的席勒市盈率超过37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去10年经通胀调整的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率倍数，但历史非常清楚，当标普500的希勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四次发生这种情况时，基础广泛的指数至少下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's&nbsp;not normal&nbsp;for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就连保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自1995年以来，已有三起保证金债务使用量在某一年跃升至少60%的情况。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始之前。第三个例子是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>标普500似乎将出现大幅但健康的回调。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些万无一失的股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者的焦虑，但这也是买入的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长期来看，它无疑是投资者最伟大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&amp;P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个连续20年不能为投资者带来正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或调整，可以放心地买入以下三只万无一失的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have&nbsp;generated more surefire returns&nbsp;for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自1965年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监管的公司A类股(BRK.A)的平均年回报率为20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今的回报，巴菲特在56年内创造了约6000亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约3,300,000%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is&nbsp;a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管这位奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张时期往往会持续更长时间。因此，他在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合中加入了银行股、科技股和消费必需品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on&nbsp;dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不支付股息，但它有望在2021年获得超过50亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，这一收益率接近5%。由于股息股票几乎总是盈利且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，搭巴菲特的顺风车往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续向股东交付、在股市崩盘期间购买的万无一失的股票是<b>Salesforce.com</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CRM），为基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）提供软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题、监督在线营销活动以及对现有客户群进行预测性销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce&nbsp;sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share&nbsp;<b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>&nbsp;possessed last year on a&nbsp;<i>combined</i>&nbsp;basis.&nbsp; A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供了两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比份额高出整整一个百分点<b>神谕</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年在一个<i>联合的</i>基础。股市的一点动荡不会改变对CRM软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱Salesforce的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff&nbsp;has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫是一位收购专家。对MuleSoft、Tableau以及最近对Slack Technologies的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，预计未来五年年销售额将增长一倍以上，达到500亿美元。投资者购买Salesforce股票可以获得的任何折扣都应被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third&nbsp;surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises&nbsp;is&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整出现，第三只值得买入的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商YouTube的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a&nbsp;91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎不动针。根据GlobalStats的数据，9月份谷歌占据了全球搜索引擎市场92%的份额。回顾两年前，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%至93%的份额。作为广告商的明确首选，Alphabet(Elon Musk)的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet名副其实的互联网搜索垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商YouTube第二季度广告收入飙升84%，年销售额达到280亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为地球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's&nbsp;absolutely no reason&nbsp;for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至6月的季度实现了54%的销售额增长，目前年销售额超过180亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，它应该会成长为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩盘或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在您的买入名单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115058296","content_text":"Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.\nTo be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.\nHistory isn't the market's friend in the near term\nAt the moment, there are no shortage of tail winds for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.\nFor instance, the widely followed S&P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"\nHistory is no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.\nEven the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's not normal for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.\nThe table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&P 500.\nA crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks\nWhile big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.\nFor example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.\nShould this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.\nBerkshire Hathaway\nFew stocks have generated more surefire returns for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.\nThough there is a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.\nAnother reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.\nLong story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.\nSalesforce\nAnother surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).\nFor those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.\nCloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share Oracle,SAP,Microsoft, and Adobe possessed last year on a combined basis.  A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.\nWhat's more, CEO Marc Benioff has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.\nAlphabet\nA third surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises is Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.\nWhen it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a 91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.\nWhat might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.\nMeanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's absolutely no reason for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"CRM":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828305223,"gmtCreate":1633839311167,"gmtModify":1633839311167,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like 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REIT(AJBU.SI)$[Cry]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/120cefbda0b0c8f1914cc3d1a1291cb1","width":"1125","height":"2539"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821832156","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821348212,"gmtCreate":1633701718763,"gmtModify":1633701718908,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821348212","repostId":"2173925535","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866828435,"gmtCreate":1632754720127,"gmtModify":1632798060378,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like 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15:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Bitcoin, Ethereum And Dogecoin Could Be In For A Bumpy Road Ahead<blockquote>为什么比特币、以太币和狗狗币的前路可能会坎坷</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107241271","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Thousands of traders just like you are earning second income stream trading options! Click Here See ","content":"<p><div> Thousands of traders just like you are earning second income stream trading options! Click Here See How! Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) have developed inside...</p><p><blockquote><div>成千上万像你一样的交易者正在赚取第二收入流交易期权！点击这里看看怎么做！比特币（加密货币：BTC）、狗狗币（加密货币：DOGE）和以太币（加密货币：ETH）已经在内部发展...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/09/23101760/why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-dogecoin-could-be-in-for-a-bumpy-road-ahead\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/09/23101760/why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-dogecoin-could-be-in-for-a-bumpy-road-ahead\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Bitcoin, Ethereum And Dogecoin Could Be In For A Bumpy Road Ahead<blockquote>为什么比特币、以太币和狗狗币的前路可能会坎坷</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Bitcoin, Ethereum And Dogecoin Could Be In For A Bumpy Road Ahead<blockquote>为什么比特币、以太币和狗狗币的前路可能会坎坷</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-26 15:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Thousands of traders just like you are earning second income stream trading options! Click Here See How! Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) have developed inside...</p><p><blockquote><div>成千上万像你一样的交易者正在赚取第二收入流交易期权！点击这里看看怎么做！比特币（加密货币：BTC）、狗狗币（加密货币：DOGE）和以太币（加密货币：ETH）已经在内部发展...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/09/23101760/why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-dogecoin-could-be-in-for-a-bumpy-road-ahead\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/09/23101760/why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-dogecoin-could-be-in-for-a-bumpy-road-ahead\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/09/23101760/why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-dogecoin-could-be-in-for-a-bumpy-road-ahead\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/09/23101760/why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-dogecoin-could-be-in-for-a-bumpy-road-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107241271","content_text":"Thousands of traders just like you are earning second income stream trading options! Click Here See How!\nBitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) have developed inside bar patterns on the daily chart. An inside bar pattern indicates a period of consolidation and is usually followed by a continuation move in the direction of the current trend.\nAn inside bar pattern has more validity on larger time frames (four-hour chart or larger). The pattern has a minimum of two candlesticks and consists of a mother bar (the first candlestick in the pattern) followed by one or more subsequent candles. The subsequent candle(s) must be completely inside the range of the mother bar and each is called an \"inside bar.\"\nA double, or triple inside bar can be more powerful than a single inside bar. After the break of an inside bar pattern, traders want to watch for high volume as confirmation the pattern was recognized.\nBullish traders will want to search for inside bar patterns on stocks that are in an uptrend. Some traders may take a position during the inside bar prior to the break while other aggressive traders will take a position after the break of the pattern.\nFor bearish traders, finding an inside bar pattern on a stock that's in a downtrend will be key. Like bullish traders, bears have two options of where to take a position to play the break of the pattern. For bearish traders, the pattern is invalidated if the stock rises above the highest range of the mother candle.\nThe Bitcoin Chart: Bitcoin was printing an inside bar on the daily chart just above a support level at $42,223. The crypto is trading in a short uptrend within a larger downtrend. Bitcoin will have to make a higher high above the $55,200 level for confirmation the downtrend is over.\nThe Dogecoin Chart:Dogecoin is trading in a steep downtrend but holding above a key support level of $0.197. The crypto's inside bar on Saturday demonstrates consolidation. If Dogecoin loses support at its key level it could fall toward the 16-cent mark.\nThe Ethereum Chart:Like Bitcoin, Ethereum may be working to reverse course into an uptrend but will need to shoot up above Thursday's high of $3182 for confirmation. Otherwise, the crypto could continue lower in its larger downtrend following Saturday's inside bar.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868275704,"gmtCreate":1632665264008,"gmtModify":1632798703803,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Greater&nbsp;","listText":"Greater&nbsp;","text":"Greater","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868275704","repostId":"1189062967","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189062967","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632642678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189062967?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 15:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Whole Foods Adds Service Fee for Amazon Prime Deliveries<blockquote>全食超市增加亚马逊Prime配送服务费</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189062967","media":"The street","summary":"Amazon's Whole Foods Market ends free deliveries for Amazon Prime members, as it will add a $9.95 se","content":"<p>Amazon's Whole Foods Market ends free deliveries for Amazon Prime members, as it will add a $9.95 service fee beginning in October.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的Whole Foods Market结束了对Amazon Prime会员的免费送货服务，因为它将从10月份开始增加9.95美元的服务费。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Amazon.com, Inc. Report&nbsp;Whole Foods Market is ending free deliveries for Amazon Prime members, as it will add a service fee beginning in October.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取亚马逊公司报告称，Whole Foods Market将结束对Amazon Prime会员的免费送货服务，因为它将从10月份开始增加服务费。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon on Friday notified its Amazon Prime members that starting Oct. 25 it will charge a $9.95 service fee for Whole Foods delivery orders. Customers will also pay additional rush order fees for one-hour deliveries. Grocery pickup will still be free for Prime members on orders over $35.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊周五通知其Amazon Prime会员，从10月25日开始，将对Whole Foods配送订单收取9.95美元的服务费。客户还将为一小时交货支付额外的加急订单费。订单超过35美元的Prime会员仍可免费取货。</blockquote></p><p> The service fee is already in effect for deliveries in certain areas, including Portland, Maine; Providence, R.I.; Manchester, N.H.; and the greater Detroit, Boston and Chicago areas, according to Amazon's website.</p><p><blockquote>服务费已经对某些地区的送货生效，包括缅因州波特兰；罗得岛州普罗维登斯；新罕布什尔州曼彻斯特；以及大底特律、波士顿和芝加哥地区。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon asserted that the service fee helps cover operating costs, including equipment, technology and other costs associated with grocery delivery orders.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊声称，服务费有助于支付运营成本，包括设备、技术和其他与杂货配送订单相关的成本。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon Fresh two-hour delivery and one-hour pickup remain free for Prime members on orders over $35. Rush orders will continue to include additional fees.</p><p><blockquote>Prime会员订单超过35美元，亚马逊生鲜两小时送货和一小时取件仍然免费。加急订单将继续包含额外费用。</blockquote></p><p> Austin, Texas-based Whole Foods, which was founded in 1980, is a leading natural and organic food store with over 500 locations in the U.S., Canada and U.K.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于德克萨斯州奥斯汀的全食超市成立于1980年，是一家领先的天然和有机食品店，在美国、加拿大和英国拥有500多家分店。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon this week unveiled aCOVID-19 vaccination incentive programthat gives frontline workers a chance to win up to $500,000 cash and other prizes for getting the vaccine. Under the lottery system called Max Your Vax, the company offers 18 prizes, including two $500,000 cash awards, six $100,000 awards, five new vehicles, and five vacation packages.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊本周推出了新冠肺炎疫苗接种激励计划，为一线工作人员提供了赢得高达50万美元现金和其他疫苗奖励的机会。在名为Max Your Vax的彩票系统下，该公司提供18个奖项，包括两个50万美元的现金奖励、六个10万美元的奖励、五辆新车和五个度假套餐。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Amazon rose slightly to $3,426.90 in after hours trade.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊股价在盘后交易中小幅上涨至3,426.90美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Whole Foods Adds Service Fee for Amazon Prime Deliveries<blockquote>全食超市增加亚马逊Prime配送服务费</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhole Foods Adds Service Fee for Amazon Prime Deliveries<blockquote>全食超市增加亚马逊Prime配送服务费</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-26 15:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon's Whole Foods Market ends free deliveries for Amazon Prime members, as it will add a $9.95 service fee beginning in October.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的Whole Foods Market结束了对Amazon Prime会员的免费送货服务，因为它将从10月份开始增加9.95美元的服务费。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Amazon.com, Inc. Report&nbsp;Whole Foods Market is ending free deliveries for Amazon Prime members, as it will add a service fee beginning in October.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取亚马逊公司报告称，Whole Foods Market将结束对Amazon Prime会员的免费送货服务，因为它将从10月份开始增加服务费。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon on Friday notified its Amazon Prime members that starting Oct. 25 it will charge a $9.95 service fee for Whole Foods delivery orders. Customers will also pay additional rush order fees for one-hour deliveries. Grocery pickup will still be free for Prime members on orders over $35.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊周五通知其Amazon Prime会员，从10月25日开始，将对Whole Foods配送订单收取9.95美元的服务费。客户还将为一小时交货支付额外的加急订单费。订单超过35美元的Prime会员仍可免费取货。</blockquote></p><p> The service fee is already in effect for deliveries in certain areas, including Portland, Maine; Providence, R.I.; Manchester, N.H.; and the greater Detroit, Boston and Chicago areas, according to Amazon's website.</p><p><blockquote>服务费已经对某些地区的送货生效，包括缅因州波特兰；罗得岛州普罗维登斯；新罕布什尔州曼彻斯特；以及大底特律、波士顿和芝加哥地区。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon asserted that the service fee helps cover operating costs, including equipment, technology and other costs associated with grocery delivery orders.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊声称，服务费有助于支付运营成本，包括设备、技术和其他与杂货配送订单相关的成本。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon Fresh two-hour delivery and one-hour pickup remain free for Prime members on orders over $35. Rush orders will continue to include additional fees.</p><p><blockquote>Prime会员订单超过35美元，亚马逊生鲜两小时送货和一小时取件仍然免费。加急订单将继续包含额外费用。</blockquote></p><p> Austin, Texas-based Whole Foods, which was founded in 1980, is a leading natural and organic food store with over 500 locations in the U.S., Canada and U.K.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于德克萨斯州奥斯汀的全食超市成立于1980年，是一家领先的天然和有机食品店，在美国、加拿大和英国拥有500多家分店。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon this week unveiled aCOVID-19 vaccination incentive programthat gives frontline workers a chance to win up to $500,000 cash and other prizes for getting the vaccine. Under the lottery system called Max Your Vax, the company offers 18 prizes, including two $500,000 cash awards, six $100,000 awards, five new vehicles, and five vacation packages.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊本周推出了新冠肺炎疫苗接种激励计划，为一线工作人员提供了赢得高达50万美元现金和其他疫苗奖励的机会。在名为Max Your Vax的彩票系统下，该公司提供18个奖项，包括两个50万美元的现金奖励、六个10万美元的奖励、五辆新车和五个度假套餐。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Amazon rose slightly to $3,426.90 in after hours trade.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊股价在盘后交易中小幅上涨至3,426.90美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/whole-foods-adds-service-fee-for-amazon-prime-deliveries\">The street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/whole-foods-adds-service-fee-for-amazon-prime-deliveries","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189062967","content_text":"Amazon's Whole Foods Market ends free deliveries for Amazon Prime members, as it will add a $9.95 service fee beginning in October.\nAmazon's (AMZN) -Get Amazon.com, Inc. Report Whole Foods Market is ending free deliveries for Amazon Prime members, as it will add a service fee beginning in October.\nAmazon on Friday notified its Amazon Prime members that starting Oct. 25 it will charge a $9.95 service fee for Whole Foods delivery orders. Customers will also pay additional rush order fees for one-hour deliveries. Grocery pickup will still be free for Prime members on orders over $35.\nThe service fee is already in effect for deliveries in certain areas, including Portland, Maine; Providence, R.I.; Manchester, N.H.; and the greater Detroit, Boston and Chicago areas, according to Amazon's website.\nAmazon asserted that the service fee helps cover operating costs, including equipment, technology and other costs associated with grocery delivery orders.\nAmazon Fresh two-hour delivery and one-hour pickup remain free for Prime members on orders over $35. Rush orders will continue to include additional fees.\nAustin, Texas-based Whole Foods, which was founded in 1980, is a leading natural and organic food store with over 500 locations in the U.S., Canada and U.K.\nAmazon this week unveiled aCOVID-19 vaccination incentive programthat gives frontline workers a chance to win up to $500,000 cash and other prizes for getting the vaccine. Under the lottery system called Max Your Vax, the company offers 18 prizes, including two $500,000 cash awards, six $100,000 awards, five new vehicles, and five vacation packages.\nShares of Amazon rose slightly to $3,426.90 in after hours trade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861696020,"gmtCreate":1632490491560,"gmtModify":1632717984745,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yup&nbsp;","listText":"Yup&nbsp;","text":"Yup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861696020","repostId":"1115207407","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115207407","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632486845,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115207407?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-24 20:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Peter Schiff: Gold Will Explode; The Dollar Will Implode When The Markets Figure This Out<blockquote>彼得·希夫：黄金将会爆炸；当市场发现这一点时，美元将会崩溃</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115207407","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Peter Schiff says gold will explode and the dollar will implode when the markets figure out the Fed ","content":"<p>Peter Schiff says gold will explode and the dollar will implode when the markets figure out the Fed is crying wolf when it comes to monetary tightening.</p><p><blockquote>彼得·希夫表示，当市场发现美联储在货币紧缩问题上喊狼来了时，黄金将会爆炸，美元将会内爆。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve wrapped up another meeting without making any changes to its current extraordinary, loose, inflationary monetary policy. But the central bank did hint that it may start tapering its&nbsp;quantitative easing&nbsp;program “soon.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储结束了另一次会议，没有对其当前非同寻常的、宽松的、通胀性的货币政策做出任何改变。但央行确实暗示可能“很快”开始缩减量化宽松计划。</blockquote></p><p> That was enough for the markets. They continue to expect the Fed will tighten monetary policy and fight surging inflation.&nbsp;Gold&nbsp;sold off after the FOMC statement came out, dropping about $10.</p><p><blockquote>这对市场来说已经足够了。他们继续预计美联储将收紧货币政策，对抗飙升的通胀。FOMC声明出来后，黄金遭到抛售，下跌约10美元。</blockquote></p><p> The gold market has battled these headwinds for months. Every time the Fed hints at tightening, gold sells off. Every time inflation numbers come in hot, gold sells off. This doesn’t make sense. Why would investors sell an inflation hedge during an inflationary period? Because they honestly think the central bank can and will sweep in and successfully fight inflation.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，黄金市场一直在与这些不利因素作斗争。每次美联储暗示紧缩，黄金就会遭到抛售。每当通胀数据公布时，黄金就会遭到抛售。这说不通。为什么投资者会在通胀时期出售通胀对冲工具？因为他们真诚地认为央行能够也将会介入并成功对抗通胀。</blockquote></p><p> But as we have said over and over again,&nbsp;the Fed cannot possibly tighten in this economic environment. In&nbsp;an interview on&nbsp;<i>RT Boom Bust</i>, Peter Schiff said even if the Fed does begin to taper, it will eventually reverse course and ultimately expand QE.</p><p><blockquote>但正如我们一遍又一遍地说的那样，在这种经济环境下，美联储不可能收紧政策。在接受采访时<i>RT繁荣萧条</i>，Peter Schiff表示，即使美联储真的开始缩减，它最终也会逆转方向，最终扩大QE。</blockquote></p><p>   It knows the only foundation this bubble economy has is the Fed’s easy money policies. And I don’t think they have any actual plans to taper.  <b>And even if they just kind of feign the process by beginning it, they’ll never complete it because soon after they start the taper, again, if they even ever start, they’re going to have to reverse the process.</b>Because ultimately, the Fed Fed is going to expand the QE program and start to buy a lot more government Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in the future than it’s doing right now.”  During his podcast&nbsp;after the September Fed meeting, Peter said at some point the markets will tire of this game.</p><p><blockquote>它知道这种泡沫经济的唯一基础是美联储的宽松货币政策。我认为他们没有任何实际的缩减计划。<b>即使他们只是通过开始这个过程来假装这个过程，他们也永远不会完成它，因为在他们开始逐渐减少后不久，同样，如果他们开始了，他们将不得不逆转这个过程。</b>因为最终，美联储将扩大量化宽松计划，并在未来开始购买比现在更多的政府国债和抵押贷款支持证券。”彼得在9月美联储会议后的播客中表示，在某个时候，市场将会厌倦这场游戏。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>They’re going to be tired of a boy crying wolf over and over and over again, and a wolf never actually showing up. At some point, the markets are going to figure this out, understand the Fed’s predicament, and then it’s going to hit the fan.”</b>  Peter said that’s when you will see the gold market explode and the dollar implode.</p><p><blockquote><b>他们会厌倦一个男孩一遍又一遍地喊狼来了，一只狼从来没有真正出现过。在某个时候，市场会弄清楚这一点，了解美联储的困境，然后就会受到打击。”</b>彼得说，那时你会看到黄金市场爆炸，美元内爆。</blockquote></p><p>   But you can’t wait for that to happen to act. You need to be positioned before everyone wakes up — or not even everyone — just a significant percentage of those who are asleep right now to wake up. That’s all it takes. Not everybody. Just a large enough minority to figure it out and that’s all it’s going to take.”  As for the dollar, during the big stock market selloff on Monday, the greenback was up overall, but it was down against the traditional safe-haven currencies, including the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. It was also down against gold. Nevertheless, a lot of mainstream commentators claimed the dollar was strong, proving that it remains the go-to safe haven. But that’s not true.</p><p><blockquote>但你不能等到那件事发生才采取行动。你需要在每个人醒来之前就位——或者甚至不是每个人——只有很大一部分正在睡觉的人醒来。这就够了。不是每个人。只要有足够多的少数人能够弄清楚这一点，这就是所需要的。”美元方面，在周一股市大抛售期间，美元整体上涨，但兑日元和瑞士法郎等传统避险货币下跌。它对黄金也下跌。尽管如此，许多主流评论员声称美元走强，证明美元仍然是首选避风港。但那不是真的。</blockquote></p><p>   The dollar was down against the Swiss franc and the yen. Doesn’t that mean that more people were buying Swiss franks and yen instead of the dollar? And also, gold went up against the dollar. So, that means people were buying gold and not the dollar. So, I think the action in the foreign exchange market and in the gold market doesn’t actually prove that the dollar is retaining its safe-haven status. It’s more evidence that it is losing that status as more people are preferring Japanese yen, Swiss francs and gold to the dollar.” </p><p><blockquote>美元对瑞士法郎和日元下跌。这难道不意味着更多的人购买瑞士法郎和日元而不是美元吗？此外，黄金兑美元汇率上涨。所以，这意味着人们在购买黄金而不是美元。因此，我认为外汇市场和黄金市场的走势实际上并不能证明美元保持其避险地位。更多证据表明，随着越来越多的人更喜欢日元、瑞士法郎和黄金而不是美元，它正在失去这一地位。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Peter Schiff: Gold Will Explode; The Dollar Will Implode When The Markets Figure This Out<blockquote>彼得·希夫：黄金将会爆炸；当市场发现这一点时，美元将会崩溃</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPeter Schiff: Gold Will Explode; The Dollar Will Implode When The Markets Figure This Out<blockquote>彼得·希夫：黄金将会爆炸；当市场发现这一点时，美元将会崩溃</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-24 20:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Peter Schiff says gold will explode and the dollar will implode when the markets figure out the Fed is crying wolf when it comes to monetary tightening.</p><p><blockquote>彼得·希夫表示，当市场发现美联储在货币紧缩问题上喊狼来了时，黄金将会爆炸，美元将会内爆。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve wrapped up another meeting without making any changes to its current extraordinary, loose, inflationary monetary policy. But the central bank did hint that it may start tapering its&nbsp;quantitative easing&nbsp;program “soon.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储结束了另一次会议，没有对其当前非同寻常的、宽松的、通胀性的货币政策做出任何改变。但央行确实暗示可能“很快”开始缩减量化宽松计划。</blockquote></p><p> That was enough for the markets. They continue to expect the Fed will tighten monetary policy and fight surging inflation.&nbsp;Gold&nbsp;sold off after the FOMC statement came out, dropping about $10.</p><p><blockquote>这对市场来说已经足够了。他们继续预计美联储将收紧货币政策，对抗飙升的通胀。FOMC声明出来后，黄金遭到抛售，下跌约10美元。</blockquote></p><p> The gold market has battled these headwinds for months. Every time the Fed hints at tightening, gold sells off. Every time inflation numbers come in hot, gold sells off. This doesn’t make sense. Why would investors sell an inflation hedge during an inflationary period? Because they honestly think the central bank can and will sweep in and successfully fight inflation.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，黄金市场一直在与这些不利因素作斗争。每次美联储暗示紧缩，黄金就会遭到抛售。每当通胀数据公布时，黄金就会遭到抛售。这说不通。为什么投资者会在通胀时期出售通胀对冲工具？因为他们真诚地认为央行能够也将会介入并成功对抗通胀。</blockquote></p><p> But as we have said over and over again,&nbsp;the Fed cannot possibly tighten in this economic environment. In&nbsp;an interview on&nbsp;<i>RT Boom Bust</i>, Peter Schiff said even if the Fed does begin to taper, it will eventually reverse course and ultimately expand QE.</p><p><blockquote>但正如我们一遍又一遍地说的那样，在这种经济环境下，美联储不可能收紧政策。在接受采访时<i>RT繁荣萧条</i>，Peter Schiff表示，即使美联储真的开始缩减，它最终也会逆转方向，最终扩大QE。</blockquote></p><p>   It knows the only foundation this bubble economy has is the Fed’s easy money policies. And I don’t think they have any actual plans to taper.  <b>And even if they just kind of feign the process by beginning it, they’ll never complete it because soon after they start the taper, again, if they even ever start, they’re going to have to reverse the process.</b>Because ultimately, the Fed Fed is going to expand the QE program and start to buy a lot more government Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in the future than it’s doing right now.”  During his podcast&nbsp;after the September Fed meeting, Peter said at some point the markets will tire of this game.</p><p><blockquote>它知道这种泡沫经济的唯一基础是美联储的宽松货币政策。我认为他们没有任何实际的缩减计划。<b>即使他们只是通过开始这个过程来假装这个过程，他们也永远不会完成它，因为在他们开始逐渐减少后不久，同样，如果他们开始了，他们将不得不逆转这个过程。</b>因为最终，美联储将扩大量化宽松计划，并在未来开始购买比现在更多的政府国债和抵押贷款支持证券。”彼得在9月美联储会议后的播客中表示，在某个时候，市场将会厌倦这场游戏。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>They’re going to be tired of a boy crying wolf over and over and over again, and a wolf never actually showing up. At some point, the markets are going to figure this out, understand the Fed’s predicament, and then it’s going to hit the fan.”</b>  Peter said that’s when you will see the gold market explode and the dollar implode.</p><p><blockquote><b>他们会厌倦一个男孩一遍又一遍地喊狼来了，一只狼从来没有真正出现过。在某个时候，市场会弄清楚这一点，了解美联储的困境，然后就会受到打击。”</b>彼得说，那时你会看到黄金市场爆炸，美元内爆。</blockquote></p><p>   But you can’t wait for that to happen to act. You need to be positioned before everyone wakes up — or not even everyone — just a significant percentage of those who are asleep right now to wake up. That’s all it takes. Not everybody. Just a large enough minority to figure it out and that’s all it’s going to take.”  As for the dollar, during the big stock market selloff on Monday, the greenback was up overall, but it was down against the traditional safe-haven currencies, including the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. It was also down against gold. Nevertheless, a lot of mainstream commentators claimed the dollar was strong, proving that it remains the go-to safe haven. But that’s not true.</p><p><blockquote>但你不能等到那件事发生才采取行动。你需要在每个人醒来之前就位——或者甚至不是每个人——只有很大一部分正在睡觉的人醒来。这就够了。不是每个人。只要有足够多的少数人能够弄清楚这一点，这就是所需要的。”美元方面，在周一股市大抛售期间，美元整体上涨，但兑日元和瑞士法郎等传统避险货币下跌。它对黄金也下跌。尽管如此，许多主流评论员声称美元走强，证明美元仍然是首选避风港。但那不是真的。</blockquote></p><p>   The dollar was down against the Swiss franc and the yen. Doesn’t that mean that more people were buying Swiss franks and yen instead of the dollar? And also, gold went up against the dollar. So, that means people were buying gold and not the dollar. So, I think the action in the foreign exchange market and in the gold market doesn’t actually prove that the dollar is retaining its safe-haven status. It’s more evidence that it is losing that status as more people are preferring Japanese yen, Swiss francs and gold to the dollar.” </p><p><blockquote>美元对瑞士法郎和日元下跌。这难道不意味着更多的人购买瑞士法郎和日元而不是美元吗？此外，黄金兑美元汇率上涨。所以，这意味着人们在购买黄金而不是美元。因此，我认为外汇市场和黄金市场的走势实际上并不能证明美元保持其避险地位。更多证据表明，随着越来越多的人更喜欢日元、瑞士法郎和黄金而不是美元，它正在失去这一地位。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-gold-will-explode-dollar-will-implode-when-markets-figure-out?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-gold-will-explode-dollar-will-implode-when-markets-figure-out?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115207407","content_text":"Peter Schiff says gold will explode and the dollar will implode when the markets figure out the Fed is crying wolf when it comes to monetary tightening.\nThe Federal Reserve wrapped up another meeting without making any changes to its current extraordinary, loose, inflationary monetary policy. But the central bank did hint that it may start tapering its quantitative easing program “soon.”\nThat was enough for the markets. They continue to expect the Fed will tighten monetary policy and fight surging inflation. Gold sold off after the FOMC statement came out, dropping about $10.\nThe gold market has battled these headwinds for months. Every time the Fed hints at tightening, gold sells off. Every time inflation numbers come in hot, gold sells off. This doesn’t make sense. Why would investors sell an inflation hedge during an inflationary period? Because they honestly think the central bank can and will sweep in and successfully fight inflation.\nBut as we have said over and over again, the Fed cannot possibly tighten in this economic environment. In an interview on RT Boom Bust, Peter Schiff said even if the Fed does begin to taper, it will eventually reverse course and ultimately expand QE.\n\n It knows the only foundation this bubble economy has is the Fed’s easy money policies. And I don’t think they have any actual plans to taper.\n And even if they just kind of feign the process by beginning it, they’ll never complete it because soon after they start the taper, again, if they even ever start, they’re going to have to reverse the process.Because ultimately, the Fed Fed is going to expand the QE program and start to buy a lot more government Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in the future than it’s doing right now.”\n\nDuring his podcast after the September Fed meeting, Peter said at some point the markets will tire of this game.\n\nThey’re going to be tired of a boy crying wolf over and over and over again, and a wolf never actually showing up. At some point, the markets are going to figure this out, understand the Fed’s predicament, and then it’s going to hit the fan.”\n\nPeter said that’s when you will see the gold market explode and the dollar implode.\n\n But you can’t wait for that to happen to act. You need to be positioned before everyone wakes up — or not even everyone — just a significant percentage of those who are asleep right now to wake up. That’s all it takes. Not everybody. Just a large enough minority to figure it out and that’s all it’s going to take.”\n\nAs for the dollar, during the big stock market selloff on Monday, the greenback was up overall, but it was down against the traditional safe-haven currencies, including the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. It was also down against gold. Nevertheless, a lot of mainstream commentators claimed the dollar was strong, proving that it remains the go-to safe haven. But that’s not true.\n\n The dollar was down against the Swiss franc and the yen. Doesn’t that mean that more people were buying Swiss franks and yen instead of the dollar? And also, gold went up against the dollar. So, that means people were buying gold and not the dollar. So, I think the action in the foreign exchange market and in the gold market doesn’t actually prove that the dollar is retaining its safe-haven status. It’s more evidence that it is losing that status as more people are preferring Japanese yen, Swiss francs and gold to the dollar.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861698544,"gmtCreate":1632490468088,"gmtModify":1632717987746,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568626920493898","authorIdStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861698544","repostId":"1170935379","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170935379","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632487221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170935379?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-24 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Canoo Has Limited Upside After Recent Strategic Changes<blockquote>Canoo在最近的战略变化后上涨空间有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170935379","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"The thesis on GOEV stock flipped completely and is now incredibly bleak.\n\nElectric van startup Canoo","content":"<p><div> The thesis on GOEV stock flipped completely and is now incredibly bleak.  Electric van startup Canoo Inc. stock has had a rough few months at the stock market. GOEV stock shed over 30% of its value ...</p><p><blockquote><div>关于GOEV股票的论点完全翻转，现在令人难以置信地黯淡。电动货车初创公司Canoo Inc.的股票在股市上经历了艰难的几个月。GOEV股价下跌超过30%...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/goev-stock-has-limited-upside-after-recent-strategic-changes/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/goev-stock-has-limited-upside-after-recent-strategic-changes/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Canoo Has Limited Upside After Recent Strategic Changes<blockquote>Canoo在最近的战略变化后上涨空间有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCanoo Has Limited Upside After Recent Strategic Changes<blockquote>Canoo在最近的战略变化后上涨空间有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-24 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The thesis on GOEV stock flipped completely and is now incredibly bleak.  Electric van startup Canoo Inc. stock has had a rough few months at the stock market. GOEV stock shed over 30% of its value ...</p><p><blockquote><div>关于GOEV股票的论点完全翻转，现在令人难以置信地黯淡。电动货车初创公司Canoo Inc.的股票在股市上经历了艰难的几个月。GOEV股价下跌超过30%...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/goev-stock-has-limited-upside-after-recent-strategic-changes/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/goev-stock-has-limited-upside-after-recent-strategic-changes/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/goev-stock-has-limited-upside-after-recent-strategic-changes/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/goev-stock-has-limited-upside-after-recent-strategic-changes/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170935379","content_text":"The thesis on GOEV stock flipped completely and is now incredibly bleak.\n\nElectric van startup Canoo Inc. stock has had a rough few months at the stock market.\nGOEV stock shed over 30% of its value amidst uncertainties concerning its financial flexibility and lost revenues from terminated engineering contracts. It’s burning over $75 million a quarter, and with its massive capital expenditure requirements, shareholder dilution is almost a given.\nGOEV stock will continue to move lower until there’s more clarity about its future outlook.\nThe past few months have been quite tumultuous for Canoo. In April,it unexpectedly lost its CEOand founder in Ulrich Kranz. Consequently, a new leadership team took over and announced key changes to the company’s business strategy. Moreover, the company lost out on its only revenue-generating contract with automobile giantHyundai(OTCMKTS:HYMTF).\nIt now needs to find some short-term revenue streams to avoid major liquidity problems. All in all, it’s a rocky road ahead for the EV startup.\nMajor Strategic Changes\nIn Late April, Canoo’sCEO Ulrich Kranz resigned from his postalong with the company’s CFO Paul Balciunas. The reasons for their resignations were unclear, but what followed has certainly left Canoo’s early investors fuming.\nThe new leadership announced some fundamental changes to the company’s business strategy. Foremost, it wouldn’t bepursuing the contract engineeringend of its business anymore. The leadership team feels the company must protect its intellectual property, compromised as part of the licensing agreements.\nThis is incredibly concerning because Canoo had planned to generate over $500 million in sales by 2025 from its contract manufacturing segment. It is disconcerting why the management has made a complete U-turn on its decision when it shouldn’t have provided such inflated numbers leading up to the SPAC deal. Investors felt it was a key differentiator for the company against its competition.\nFurthermore, the management also announced some key changes to Canoo’s subscription model.The model is now optionaland will now form a small part of the company’s revenues going forward. A lot was made of its subscription model, which could have been a major growth catalyst in the future. However, all that has changed as there is a significant shift in the company’s policy which aims to reduce IP leakages as much as possible. The company has forecasted subscription revenues to reach $2 billion by 2026.\nRelevancy To Millennials\nCanoo aims to become an EV maker which effectively caters to millennial tastes. It aims to provide the upbeat, non-committal, fearless, and exploratory millennial with an EV that matches its identity. However, it’s tough to say whether they were looking for the bizarrely shaped lifestyle EVs that Canoo is producing.\nThere has been a lot of talk over the millennials and their exploratory lifestyle. The reality is quite different, though, as today’s younger generation tends to be more indoors than the prior generations. This notion issupported by a study conductedby Yale Environment 360, which showed that adults and children had lost a connection with nature. People in the country tend to spend less time outdoors than they did in the past.\nThe non-committal lifestyle of millennials is perhaps a more believable assertion, though. However, Canoo’s lack of emphasis on its subscription model shows that it has lost the plot here.\nFinal Word On GOEV Stock\nIf you’d invested in Canoo before April, you’d probably have a lot of good things to say about the company. However, after its strategic change, the risks have multiplied exponentially with GOEV stock.\nIts relevancy with its target market is under the scanner, which raises concerns about its long-term positioning. The key changes to its business model are puzzling and are likely to weigh in on its stock price for the foreseeable future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":821348212,"gmtCreate":1633701718763,"gmtModify":1633701718908,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568626920493898","idStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821348212","repostId":"2173925535","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850441521,"gmtCreate":1634620300879,"gmtModify":1634620301020,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568626920493898","idStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850441521","repostId":"1147398025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147398025","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634608414,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147398025?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 09:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla and 15 Other EV Stocks Are Worth Almost as Much as 50 Traditional Car Makers. How That Makes Sense.<blockquote>特斯拉和其他15只电动汽车股票的价值几乎相当于50家传统汽车制造商的价值。这怎么说得通。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147398025","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla and other electric-vehicle makers account for almost half of the value wrapped up in car-manuf","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;and other electric-vehicle makers account for almost half of the value wrapped up in car-manufacturer stocks. Does that make sense?</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商几乎占汽车制造商股票价值的一半。这有意义吗？</blockquote></p><p> Monday, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi asked that question. He’s a&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;(ticker: TSLA) bear—rating shares Sell with a $300 price target—mainly because he believes the stock is pricey. Still, EVs can be worth half of the industry if investors buy into three ideas.</p><p><blockquote>周一，伯恩斯坦分析师托尼·萨科纳吉提出了这个问题。他对特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股票给予看跌评级，目标价为300美元，主要是因为他认为该股价格昂贵。尽管如此，如果投资者接受三个想法，电动汽车的价值可能会达到整个行业的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Today, 16 EV makers—including Tesla and yet-to-be public Rivian—are worth a combined $1.14 trillion. Tesla accounts for 74% of total EV value. Four of the top 10 most valuable auto makers are EV companies including: Tesla, Rivian,BYD&nbsp;(1211.Hong Kong), and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;(NIO).</p><p><blockquote>如今，包括特斯拉和尚未上市的Rivian在内的16家电动汽车制造商的总价值为1.14万亿美元。特斯拉占电动汽车总价值的74%。十大最有价值汽车制造商中有四家是电动汽车公司，包括：特斯拉、Rivian、比亚迪（1211.Hong Kong）和蔚来（蔚来）。</blockquote></p><p> As for the makers of conventional vehicles, more than 50 auto makers are worth a combined $1.42 trillion. The most valuable traditional car companies are:Toyota Motor&nbsp;(TM),Volkswagen&nbsp;(VOW3.Germany),Daimler&nbsp;(DAI.Germany), and&nbsp;General Motors&nbsp;(GM).</p><p><blockquote>至于传统汽车制造商，50多家汽车制造商的总价值为1.42万亿美元。最有价值的传统车企是：丰田汽车(TM)、大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)、戴姆勒(DAI.Germany)、通用汽车(GM)。</blockquote></p><p> Sales by the traditional companies still dominates unit volume, selling about 99% of the cars globally—97% of those are gasoline-powered, and 2% are EV. The EV pure-plays sell the remaining 1% worldwide.</p><p><blockquote>传统公司的销量仍然主导着销量，在全球销售了约99%的汽车，其中97%是汽油动力汽车，2%是电动汽车。纯电动汽车在全球范围内销售剩余的1%。</blockquote></p><p> “The thinking, of course, is that pure-play EV vendors will ultimately come to dominate the automotive world,” wrote Sacconaghi in a Monday report.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉在周一的一份报告中写道：“当然，我们的想法是纯电动汽车供应商最终将主导汽车世界。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the first thing investors need to believe to justify EV valuations. Sacconaghi points out that 2014 pure-play EV companies accounted for 14% of electric-car sales. That’s 28% today. Pure-play EV companies’ market share is growing.</p><p><blockquote>这是投资者需要相信的第一件事，以证明电动汽车估值的合理性。萨科纳吉指出，2014年纯电动汽车公司占电动汽车销量的14%。今天是28%。纯电动汽车公司的市场份额正在增长。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the second belief required to stay bullish on EV makers’ stocks—that market share will continue to improve. “We suspect the market believes …that traditional OEMs will not be able to deliver competitive EV offerings in the future,” adds the analyst in his report. OEM is short for original equipment manufacturer, industry jargon for auto maker.</p><p><blockquote>这是保持看好电动汽车制造商股票所需的第二个信念——市场份额将继续提高。这位分析师在报告中补充道：“我们怀疑市场认为……传统原始设备制造商未来将无法提供有竞争力的电动汽车产品。”OEM是原始设备制造商的缩写，是汽车制造商的行业术语。</blockquote></p><p> The final thing investors need to believe is that EVs will be more profitable, per car, than conventional vehicles. EV companies tend to sell direct—which can help profitability. EV makers are also the leaders in selling add-on subscription based services. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Capability, or FSD, is probably the best example. Tesla sells the higher levels of its autonomous-driving software as a monthly subscription or for $10,000.</p><p><blockquote>投资者需要相信的最后一件事是，电动汽车的每辆车利润将比传统汽车更高。电动汽车公司倾向于直接销售，这有助于提高盈利能力。电动汽车制造商也是销售附加订阅服务的领导者。特斯拉的全自动驾驶能力（FSD）可能是最好的例子。特斯拉以每月订阅或10,000美元的价格出售更高级别的自动驾驶软件。</blockquote></p><p> The mix of volume and profit growth driven by superior products could justify valuations, but Sacconaghi isn’t a believer. “Our contention is that the automotive industry is an increasingly global and hypercompetitive industry and we believe that surplus profits and technology innovation will likely be competed away over time.”</p><p><blockquote>优质产品推动的销量和利润增长的组合可能证明估值是合理的，但萨科纳吉并不相信这一点。“我们的论点是，汽车行业是一个日益全球化和竞争激烈的行业，我们相信，随着时间的推移，剩余利润和技术创新可能会被竞争夺走。”</blockquote></p><p> His views of the industry is one of the reasons he calls Tesla valuation “too rich.”</p><p><blockquote>他对该行业的看法是他对评级·特斯拉估值“过高”的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Time will tell who is right. Sacconaghi’s target price still implies Tesla should be the world’s most valuable car company, just not two to three times the value of Toyota.</p><p><blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。萨科纳吉的目标价仍然意味着特斯拉应该是世界上最有价值的汽车公司，只是不是丰田价值的两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock has been on a tear of late, adding 34% over the past three months as investors have become more bullish about third quarter earnings due out on Wednesday evening. Shares have gained another 3.2% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对周三晚间公布的第三季度财报更加看好，特斯拉股价最近一直在上涨，过去三个月上涨了34%。周一股价又上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla and 15 Other EV Stocks Are Worth Almost as Much as 50 Traditional Car Makers. How That Makes Sense.<blockquote>特斯拉和其他15只电动汽车股票的价值几乎相当于50家传统汽车制造商的价值。这怎么说得通。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla and 15 Other EV Stocks Are Worth Almost as Much as 50 Traditional Car Makers. How That Makes Sense.<blockquote>特斯拉和其他15只电动汽车股票的价值几乎相当于50家传统汽车制造商的价值。这怎么说得通。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-19 09:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;and other electric-vehicle makers account for almost half of the value wrapped up in car-manufacturer stocks. Does that make sense?</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商几乎占汽车制造商股票价值的一半。这有意义吗？</blockquote></p><p> Monday, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi asked that question. He’s a&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;(ticker: TSLA) bear—rating shares Sell with a $300 price target—mainly because he believes the stock is pricey. Still, EVs can be worth half of the industry if investors buy into three ideas.</p><p><blockquote>周一，伯恩斯坦分析师托尼·萨科纳吉提出了这个问题。他对特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股票给予看跌评级，目标价为300美元，主要是因为他认为该股价格昂贵。尽管如此，如果投资者接受三个想法，电动汽车的价值可能会达到整个行业的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Today, 16 EV makers—including Tesla and yet-to-be public Rivian—are worth a combined $1.14 trillion. Tesla accounts for 74% of total EV value. Four of the top 10 most valuable auto makers are EV companies including: Tesla, Rivian,BYD&nbsp;(1211.Hong Kong), and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;(NIO).</p><p><blockquote>如今，包括特斯拉和尚未上市的Rivian在内的16家电动汽车制造商的总价值为1.14万亿美元。特斯拉占电动汽车总价值的74%。十大最有价值汽车制造商中有四家是电动汽车公司，包括：特斯拉、Rivian、比亚迪（1211.Hong Kong）和蔚来（蔚来）。</blockquote></p><p> As for the makers of conventional vehicles, more than 50 auto makers are worth a combined $1.42 trillion. The most valuable traditional car companies are:Toyota Motor&nbsp;(TM),Volkswagen&nbsp;(VOW3.Germany),Daimler&nbsp;(DAI.Germany), and&nbsp;General Motors&nbsp;(GM).</p><p><blockquote>至于传统汽车制造商，50多家汽车制造商的总价值为1.42万亿美元。最有价值的传统车企是：丰田汽车(TM)、大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)、戴姆勒(DAI.Germany)、通用汽车(GM)。</blockquote></p><p> Sales by the traditional companies still dominates unit volume, selling about 99% of the cars globally—97% of those are gasoline-powered, and 2% are EV. The EV pure-plays sell the remaining 1% worldwide.</p><p><blockquote>传统公司的销量仍然主导着销量，在全球销售了约99%的汽车，其中97%是汽油动力汽车，2%是电动汽车。纯电动汽车在全球范围内销售剩余的1%。</blockquote></p><p> “The thinking, of course, is that pure-play EV vendors will ultimately come to dominate the automotive world,” wrote Sacconaghi in a Monday report.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉在周一的一份报告中写道：“当然，我们的想法是纯电动汽车供应商最终将主导汽车世界。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the first thing investors need to believe to justify EV valuations. Sacconaghi points out that 2014 pure-play EV companies accounted for 14% of electric-car sales. That’s 28% today. Pure-play EV companies’ market share is growing.</p><p><blockquote>这是投资者需要相信的第一件事，以证明电动汽车估值的合理性。萨科纳吉指出，2014年纯电动汽车公司占电动汽车销量的14%。今天是28%。纯电动汽车公司的市场份额正在增长。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the second belief required to stay bullish on EV makers’ stocks—that market share will continue to improve. “We suspect the market believes …that traditional OEMs will not be able to deliver competitive EV offerings in the future,” adds the analyst in his report. OEM is short for original equipment manufacturer, industry jargon for auto maker.</p><p><blockquote>这是保持看好电动汽车制造商股票所需的第二个信念——市场份额将继续提高。这位分析师在报告中补充道：“我们怀疑市场认为……传统原始设备制造商未来将无法提供有竞争力的电动汽车产品。”OEM是原始设备制造商的缩写，是汽车制造商的行业术语。</blockquote></p><p> The final thing investors need to believe is that EVs will be more profitable, per car, than conventional vehicles. EV companies tend to sell direct—which can help profitability. EV makers are also the leaders in selling add-on subscription based services. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Capability, or FSD, is probably the best example. Tesla sells the higher levels of its autonomous-driving software as a monthly subscription or for $10,000.</p><p><blockquote>投资者需要相信的最后一件事是，电动汽车的每辆车利润将比传统汽车更高。电动汽车公司倾向于直接销售，这有助于提高盈利能力。电动汽车制造商也是销售附加订阅服务的领导者。特斯拉的全自动驾驶能力（FSD）可能是最好的例子。特斯拉以每月订阅或10,000美元的价格出售更高级别的自动驾驶软件。</blockquote></p><p> The mix of volume and profit growth driven by superior products could justify valuations, but Sacconaghi isn’t a believer. “Our contention is that the automotive industry is an increasingly global and hypercompetitive industry and we believe that surplus profits and technology innovation will likely be competed away over time.”</p><p><blockquote>优质产品推动的销量和利润增长的组合可能证明估值是合理的，但萨科纳吉并不相信这一点。“我们的论点是，汽车行业是一个日益全球化和竞争激烈的行业，我们相信，随着时间的推移，剩余利润和技术创新可能会被竞争夺走。”</blockquote></p><p> His views of the industry is one of the reasons he calls Tesla valuation “too rich.”</p><p><blockquote>他对该行业的看法是他对评级·特斯拉估值“过高”的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Time will tell who is right. Sacconaghi’s target price still implies Tesla should be the world’s most valuable car company, just not two to three times the value of Toyota.</p><p><blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。萨科纳吉的目标价仍然意味着特斯拉应该是世界上最有价值的汽车公司，只是不是丰田价值的两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock has been on a tear of late, adding 34% over the past three months as investors have become more bullish about third quarter earnings due out on Wednesday evening. Shares have gained another 3.2% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对周三晚间公布的第三季度财报更加看好，特斯拉股价最近一直在上涨，过去三个月上涨了34%。周一股价又上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-nio-51634569822?mod=hp_DAY_6\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","TSLA":"特斯拉","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","TM":"丰田汽车","VLKAF":"Volkswagen AG","GM":"通用汽车","DDAIF":"戴姆勒汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-nio-51634569822?mod=hp_DAY_6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147398025","content_text":"Tesla and other electric-vehicle makers account for almost half of the value wrapped up in car-manufacturer stocks. Does that make sense?\nMonday, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi asked that question. He’s a Tesla (ticker: TSLA) bear—rating shares Sell with a $300 price target—mainly because he believes the stock is pricey. Still, EVs can be worth half of the industry if investors buy into three ideas.\nToday, 16 EV makers—including Tesla and yet-to-be public Rivian—are worth a combined $1.14 trillion. Tesla accounts for 74% of total EV value. Four of the top 10 most valuable auto makers are EV companies including: Tesla, Rivian,BYD (1211.Hong Kong), and NIO (NIO).\nAs for the makers of conventional vehicles, more than 50 auto makers are worth a combined $1.42 trillion. The most valuable traditional car companies are:Toyota Motor (TM),Volkswagen (VOW3.Germany),Daimler (DAI.Germany), and General Motors (GM).\nSales by the traditional companies still dominates unit volume, selling about 99% of the cars globally—97% of those are gasoline-powered, and 2% are EV. The EV pure-plays sell the remaining 1% worldwide.\n“The thinking, of course, is that pure-play EV vendors will ultimately come to dominate the automotive world,” wrote Sacconaghi in a Monday report.\nThat’s the first thing investors need to believe to justify EV valuations. Sacconaghi points out that 2014 pure-play EV companies accounted for 14% of electric-car sales. That’s 28% today. Pure-play EV companies’ market share is growing.\nThat’s the second belief required to stay bullish on EV makers’ stocks—that market share will continue to improve. “We suspect the market believes …that traditional OEMs will not be able to deliver competitive EV offerings in the future,” adds the analyst in his report. OEM is short for original equipment manufacturer, industry jargon for auto maker.\nThe final thing investors need to believe is that EVs will be more profitable, per car, than conventional vehicles. EV companies tend to sell direct—which can help profitability. EV makers are also the leaders in selling add-on subscription based services. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Capability, or FSD, is probably the best example. Tesla sells the higher levels of its autonomous-driving software as a monthly subscription or for $10,000.\nThe mix of volume and profit growth driven by superior products could justify valuations, but Sacconaghi isn’t a believer. “Our contention is that the automotive industry is an increasingly global and hypercompetitive industry and we believe that surplus profits and technology innovation will likely be competed away over time.”\nHis views of the industry is one of the reasons he calls Tesla valuation “too rich.”\nTime will tell who is right. Sacconaghi’s target price still implies Tesla should be the world’s most valuable car company, just not two to three times the value of Toyota.\nTesla stock has been on a tear of late, adding 34% over the past three months as investors have become more bullish about third quarter earnings due out on Wednesday evening. Shares have gained another 3.2% Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"DDAIF":0.9,"LI":0.9,"GM":0.9,"TM":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"01211":0.9,"VLKAF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":837489013,"gmtCreate":1629905194532,"gmtModify":1631885668447,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568626920493898","idStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837489013","repostId":"1160914293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160914293","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629901886,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160914293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-25 22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Novavax stock surged 5% in morning trading<blockquote>Novavax股价早盘飙升5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160914293","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Novavax stock surged 5% in morning trading.Novavax to participate in octave-duo study to evaluate th","content":"<p>Novavax stock surged 5% in morning trading.Novavax to participate in octave-duo study to evaluate third dose of vaccine in participants with impaired immune systems;Novavax' recombinant nanoparticle protein vaccine candidate is being studied in octave-duo, now underway in UK.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax股价早盘飙升5%。Novavax将参与octave-duo研究，以评估免疫系统受损参与者的第三剂疫苗；Novavax的重组纳米颗粒蛋白候选疫苗正在octave-duo中进行研究，目前正在英国进行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba4406a459a8630f805b4239180530c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Novavax stock surged 5% in morning trading<blockquote>Novavax股价早盘飙升5%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNovavax stock surged 5% in morning trading<blockquote>Novavax股价早盘飙升5%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-25 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Novavax stock surged 5% in morning trading.Novavax to participate in octave-duo study to evaluate third dose of vaccine in participants with impaired immune systems;Novavax' recombinant nanoparticle protein vaccine candidate is being studied in octave-duo, now underway in UK.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax股价早盘飙升5%。Novavax将参与octave-duo研究，以评估免疫系统受损参与者的第三剂疫苗；Novavax的重组纳米颗粒蛋白候选疫苗正在octave-duo中进行研究，目前正在英国进行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba4406a459a8630f805b4239180530c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160914293","content_text":"Novavax stock surged 5% in morning trading.Novavax to participate in octave-duo study to evaluate third dose of vaccine in participants with impaired immune systems;Novavax' recombinant nanoparticle protein vaccine candidate is being studied in octave-duo, now underway in UK.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVAX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881577622,"gmtCreate":1631372410166,"gmtModify":1631885668429,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568626920493898","idStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok&nbsp;","listText":"Okok&nbsp;","text":"Okok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881577622","repostId":"2166371940","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882725373,"gmtCreate":1631723378692,"gmtModify":1631885668418,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568626920493898","idStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882725373","repostId":"1148341685","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148341685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631660884,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148341685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-15 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes<blockquote>美国股市因对复苏和企业增税的担忧而收低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148341685","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约-华尔街周二下跌，原因是经济不确定性和企业税率上调的可能性越来越大，抑制了投资者情绪，并引发了广泛的抛售，尽管通胀有缓解的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Optimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>整个交易日乐观情绪消退，扭转了劳工部消费者价格指数报告发布后最初的涨势。美国三大股指均收于负值，提醒人们9月份对于股市来说是历史上艰难的一个月。</blockquote></p><p> So far this month the S&amp;P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>本月迄今为止，标普500已下跌近1.8%，尽管基准指数自年初以来已上涨超过18%。</blockquote></p><p> “There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约CFRA Research首席投资策略师Sam Stovall表示：“市场有可能只是准备好经历一次迟来的调整。”“从季节性来看，9月往往是基金经理的粉饰期。”</blockquote></p><p> The advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>高度传染性的Delta COVID变种的出现导致人们对从全球健康危机中复苏的看跌情绪增加，许多人现在预计股市将在今年年底前大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥Kingsview Asset Management投资组合经理保罗·诺尔特(Paul Nolte)表示：“我们仍处于人们几个月来一直呼吁的纠正模式。”“经济数据点一直低于预期，而这与德尔塔变异毒株的上升同时发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>CPI报告公布的8月份读数低于市场普遍预期，这一减速支持了美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的说法，即通胀飙升是暂时的，并平息了市场对美联储将比预期更早开始收紧货币政策的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]</p><p><blockquote>美国国债收益率因数据而下跌，这给金融股带来压力，投资者的青睐转向增长，而牺牲了价值。[美国/]</blockquote></p><p> The long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）的3.5万亿美元预算计划逐渐接近通过，人们期待已久的公司税上调（如果民主党获胜，将从21%上调至26.5%）即将实现。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&amp;P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌292.06点，或0.84%，报34577.57点；标普500跌25.68点，跌幅0.57%，报4,443.05点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌67.82点，跌幅0.45%，至15037.76点。</blockquote></p><p> All 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块全部收红，能源和金融板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司在今年最大的产品发布会上推出了iPhone 13，并为其iPad和苹果手表设备添加了新功能，因为该公司面临着法院对其商业行为的更严格审查。其股价收盘下跌1.0%，对标普500和纳斯达克拖累最大。</blockquote></p><p> Intuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.</p><p><blockquote>TurboTax制造商Intuit Inc宣布将以120亿美元收购数字营销公司Mailchimp后，该公司股价上涨1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> CureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>德国生物技术公司CureVac取消其实验性COVID-19疫苗的生产交易后，股价下跌8.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为2.25比1；在纳斯达克，2.40比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下两个52周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得50个新高和107个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为100.7亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为93.8亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes<blockquote>美国股市因对复苏和企业增税的担忧而收低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes<blockquote>美国股市因对复苏和企业增税的担忧而收低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-15 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约-华尔街周二下跌，原因是经济不确定性和企业税率上调的可能性越来越大，抑制了投资者情绪，并引发了广泛的抛售，尽管通胀有缓解的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Optimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>整个交易日乐观情绪消退，扭转了劳工部消费者价格指数报告发布后最初的涨势。美国三大股指均收于负值，提醒人们9月份对于股市来说是历史上艰难的一个月。</blockquote></p><p> So far this month the S&amp;P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>本月迄今为止，标普500已下跌近1.8%，尽管基准指数自年初以来已上涨超过18%。</blockquote></p><p> “There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约CFRA Research首席投资策略师Sam Stovall表示：“市场有可能只是准备好经历一次迟来的调整。”“从季节性来看，9月往往是基金经理的粉饰期。”</blockquote></p><p> The advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>高度传染性的Delta COVID变种的出现导致人们对从全球健康危机中复苏的看跌情绪增加，许多人现在预计股市将在今年年底前大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥Kingsview Asset Management投资组合经理保罗·诺尔特(Paul Nolte)表示：“我们仍处于人们几个月来一直呼吁的纠正模式。”“经济数据点一直低于预期，而这与德尔塔变异毒株的上升同时发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>CPI报告公布的8月份读数低于市场普遍预期，这一减速支持了美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的说法，即通胀飙升是暂时的，并平息了市场对美联储将比预期更早开始收紧货币政策的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]</p><p><blockquote>美国国债收益率因数据而下跌，这给金融股带来压力，投资者的青睐转向增长，而牺牲了价值。[美国/]</blockquote></p><p> The long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）的3.5万亿美元预算计划逐渐接近通过，人们期待已久的公司税上调（如果民主党获胜，将从21%上调至26.5%）即将实现。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&amp;P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌292.06点，或0.84%，报34577.57点；标普500跌25.68点，跌幅0.57%，报4,443.05点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌67.82点，跌幅0.45%，至15037.76点。</blockquote></p><p> All 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块全部收红，能源和金融板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司在今年最大的产品发布会上推出了iPhone 13，并为其iPad和苹果手表设备添加了新功能，因为该公司面临着法院对其商业行为的更严格审查。其股价收盘下跌1.0%，对标普500和纳斯达克拖累最大。</blockquote></p><p> Intuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.</p><p><blockquote>TurboTax制造商Intuit Inc宣布将以120亿美元收购数字营销公司Mailchimp后，该公司股价上涨1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> CureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>德国生物技术公司CureVac取消其实验性COVID-19疫苗的生产交易后，股价下跌8.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为2.25比1；在纳斯达克，2.40比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下两个52周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得50个新高和107个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为100.7亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为93.8亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/u-s-stocks-close-lower-on-worries-over-recovery-corporate-tax-hikes-idUSKBN2GA0W9\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/u-s-stocks-close-lower-on-worries-over-recovery-corporate-tax-hikes-idUSKBN2GA0W9","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148341685","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.\nOptimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.\nSo far this month the S&P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.\n“There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”\nThe advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.\n“We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”\nThe CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.\nU.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]\nThe long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.\nAll 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.\nApple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.\nIntuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.\nCureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":828305223,"gmtCreate":1633839311167,"gmtModify":1633839311167,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568626920493898","idStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828305223","repostId":"2174920514","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826961661,"gmtCreate":1633965352408,"gmtModify":1633965352454,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568626920493898","idStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826961661","repostId":"1174273121","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174273121","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633965002,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174273121?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174273121","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalabilit","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.</li>  <li>The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4e9c2f1150ac54e1f764f98c0880f1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1039\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从Visa的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和资本边际效率。</li><li>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).</p><p><blockquote>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。对于规模如此惊人的企业来说，保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是根据ROCE调整的估值以及与其他示例性可扩展股票（例如FAAMG股票和巴菲特风格股票）相比的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> V’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.</p><p><blockquote>V的护城河在于其规模和可扩展性，下面两张图表最好地展示了这一点。第一张图表显示了2017年至2019年全球流通的信用卡、借记卡和预付卡数量，并对2023年和2025年进行了预测。2019年，全球有228亿张信用卡、借记卡和预付卡在流通。到2023年，这一数字将达到293.1亿，比2019年的水平增长28%。到2025年，这一数字将进一步增加，超过300亿，比2019年的水平增长34%。也就是说，到2025年流通卡总量将增长1/3以上。数字化交易的趋势势不可挡。</blockquote></p><p> The second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.</p><p><blockquote>第二张图表显示，V作为该领域的领导者，将从这一长期趋势中受益最多。V是全球最大的零售电子支付网络，提供处理服务和支付产品平台。这包括信用卡、借记卡、预付费和商业支付，这些支付以Visa、Visa Electron、Interlink和PLUS品牌提供。Visa/PLUS是全球最大的ATM网络之一。V为200多个国家和地区的数字支付提供便利。它拥有36亿张流通卡，约占全球流通卡总数的16%。它处理了令人难以置信的交易量——2060亿笔支付交易，2020年总交易额为12.5万亿美元——这是支付网络无可争议的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e261998de072e355b6f039912d0f1453\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/036bc8c94696fcfd8ed3403b699534c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visa USA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国签证。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于所谓的“网络效应”，这种主导地位在未来不太可能改变（除非任何重大监管或反托拉斯法发生变化）。网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值。并不是每个网络都享有这种神奇的特性，事实上，大多数网络的边际回报率是递减的——即，额外回报随着网络变大而减少——这将在后面详细说明。连锁餐厅网络就是一个例子。随着网络变得更大，节点开始相互竞争客户，回报减少。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>但某些网络，如V提供的服务，享有这种神奇的特性——网络越大，利润就越高。这个概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这个概念没有什么新意。但是互联网时代极大地放大了网络效应的威力。一旦建立了线索——不管出于什么原因——网络效应就会开始发挥作用，接管并自我复合。</blockquote></p><p> It is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个自我维持的正反馈循环：这个网络中更多的用户将带来更多的便利、更好的效率、更低的成本，这将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值，这反过来将吸引更多的新用户和客户加入，并使现有用户更难离开，这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。这种反馈将反映在非常高的已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）中，这将在后面看到。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，就像所有美好的事情最终都会结束一样，上述网络效应的好处也会结束。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们业务是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看看收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p> And the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，本文的其余部分将研究这两个方面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my&nbsp;earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对ROCE分析细节感兴趣的读者可以在我之前的文章中找到。在这里，我将在下面的图表中总结结果。在这些结果中，我考虑了实际使用的以下项目资本a)营运资本（包括应付账款、应收账款、库存），B)不动产、厂房和设备总额，C)资本化的研发费用，以及D)无形账面价值，主要包括此类业务的知识产权和专利。</blockquote></p><p> As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.</p><p><blockquote>正如所见，它在过去十年中能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平：平均约103%。为了正确看待事情，下图将V的ROCE与FAAMG股票进行了比较，FAAMG股票是一组将网络效应发挥到极致的企业。可以看出，V在其中获得了极具竞争力的ROCE——仅次于苹果(AAPL)。平均而言，每1美元的收益再投资将推动超过1美元的未来收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/877e3bb73de3e6c4fbab1a0133f74464\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f25b4c6dc0c7ee738ac345c3888ae11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</p><p><blockquote>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE指的是这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> V’s MROCE</p><p><blockquote>V的MROCE</blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。而如下图所示，V在这样一个阶段似乎就是这样一个业务。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表显示了近年来V的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量收益或所用资本出现大幅波动的年份，采用多年运行平均值来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> Before we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.</p><p><blockquote>在我们开始解释结果之前，让我首先澄清分析边际资本回报率的困难以及我在这里使用的方法的局限性。首先，从数学上讲，估计变化率（例如，MROCE本质上是什么）比平均变化（ROCE本质上是什么）要困难得多。估计后者需要除以两个大数，不确定性很小。估计前者需要除以两个小数字，财务数据中的不确定性可以被放大。其次，对企业的一些资本投资可能需要多年（超过3年）才能取得成果（或失败）。因此，隔离和跟踪某一年投资产生的边际回报本质上是困难的。尽管大多数项目应该在3年内开始显示结果（无论是好的还是坏的），并且这种方法应该能够捕捉边际回报的主导趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.</p><p><blockquote>有了以上的了解，我们来仔细看看结果。首先，请注意，本世纪初极高的MROCE再次有力地说明了从根本上支持业务的网络效应和长期趋势。商业模式太好了。</blockquote></p><p> The results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.</p><p><blockquote>图表中的结果还显示，在这个阶段，V实际上能够保持实际上高于近年来平均ROCE的MROCE。可以看出，近年来ROCE平均为103%，MROCE平均为157%。这明显低于本世纪初350%以上的水平——重力总是试图迎头赶上。但仍远高于ROCE。而且差距超过50%，太大了，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明V还没有进入收益递减阶段——重力还没有赶上。而如果目前的MROCE继续下去，V的ROCE将维持目前的高水平，甚至进一步扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cea9c214b6d0dd15d8f9c5c1392272e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> After the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.</p><p><blockquote>以上讨论完其盈利持续性，我们再来看看估值。在目前的价格水平上，V的PE约为44倍，FW PE约为39.6倍。估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都很高。例如，与FAAMG pack相比，V目前的估值仅低于亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率，高于所有其他公司。</blockquote></p><p> It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.</p><p><blockquote>如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，下一张图表还将根据ROCE调整后的V估值与同行进行了比较。如果您熟悉巴菲特的持股，您就会认识到这张图表中的股票代表了BRK的一些大型持股。</blockquote></p><p> I am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定当我们在这张图表上添加更多数据点时，情况会是什么样子（我确实计划组织我对其他BRK主要持股的笔记，并在这张图表上添加更多数据点）。但凭借我现在掌握的几个数据点，我忍不住画出/看到了绿线——我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线。它是连接艾伯维公司（ABBV）和苹果公司的一条线——物美价廉的好企业和高价的高质量企业。因此，从价值投资者的角度来看，只有沿着这条线或低于这条线进行投资才有意义。因为沿着这条线或以下的投资代表了质量和价格之间的权衡，相当于或优于ABBV或AAPL。投资高于这条线是没有意义的，因为高于这条线的任何东西都代表着质量和价格之间的劣质权衡——我们最好只投资ABBV和AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，V目前远高于绿线，表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据其ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9fbfdb9a53f0dac2386fcfaf067800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.</p><p><blockquote>长期催化剂是文章开头提到的数字化交易趋势。在我看来，这个趋势是不可阻挡的。电子商务平台的广泛部署将进一步加速这一转变。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:</p><p><blockquote>短期内最重要的催化剂，同时也是风险，是经济复苏的方向和步伐。正如首席财务官所评论的，如果经济活动，尤其是旅游活动恢复到正常水平，V将受益匪浅：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"    <i>Vasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)</i>  In terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by&nbsp;Natalie Koo.</p><p><blockquote>“自从热门旅游目的地开放边境以来，我们已经看到了直接的影响。希腊在4月份开放了边境，截至6月底，入境持卡消费相对于2019年的水平增长了近30个百分点。法国于6月9日开放，截至6月底，入境持卡量相对于2019年增长了近20个百分点...自4月份以来，美国在墨西哥持卡跨境消费增长了近50个百分点，达到2019年水平的170%以上。”<i>Vasant Prabhu，Visa首席财务官（2021财年第三季度看涨期权收益）</i>就风险而言，我看到了前面提到的估值风险。就业务基本面而言，我确实认为短期甚至长期没有任何风险。在我看来，上述疫情的经济复苏并不是真正的根本性风险。即使它朝着错误的方向发展和/或以比预期更慢的速度发展，对V来说也最多是暂时的打嗝。商业模式太健壮，可扩展性太强。从真正的长期来看，我们只能猜测。从长远来看，金融科技和加密货币的破坏肯定是一个潜在的风险。我建议对这些讨论感兴趣的读者阅读Natalie Koo发表的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion and final thought</p><p><blockquote>结论和最后的思考</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.</li>  <li>And the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</li> </ul> As such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>ROCE平均约为103%，与表现优异的股票（典型的可扩展股票）相比非常有利。</li><li>近年来MROCE平均为157%。所以这个结果表明V还没有达到收益递减的阶段——重力还没有赶上。对于一个规模如此惊人（去年处理了15万亿美元的交易量）的企业来说，仍然保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。V目前远高于价值线，这表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</li></ul>因此，我的最终结论是，它仍然是一个完全可扩展的业务，但它的定价不仅仅是完美的。此时的投资需要一些时间、耐心和承诺，让增长赶上估值。它只适合长期承诺的投资者（至少有5年以上的时间范围），他们可以坚持下去，不受任何潜在的近期估值波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line<blockquote>Visa股票：可扩展性和巴菲特价值线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-11 23:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.</li>  <li>The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4e9c2f1150ac54e1f764f98c0880f1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1039\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从Visa的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和资本边际效率。</li><li>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).</p><p><blockquote>结果表明，V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。对于规模如此惊人的企业来说，保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是根据ROCE调整的估值以及与其他示例性可扩展股票（例如FAAMG股票和巴菲特风格股票）相比的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> V’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.</p><p><blockquote>V的护城河在于其规模和可扩展性，下面两张图表最好地展示了这一点。第一张图表显示了2017年至2019年全球流通的信用卡、借记卡和预付卡数量，并对2023年和2025年进行了预测。2019年，全球有228亿张信用卡、借记卡和预付卡在流通。到2023年，这一数字将达到293.1亿，比2019年的水平增长28%。到2025年，这一数字将进一步增加，超过300亿，比2019年的水平增长34%。也就是说，到2025年流通卡总量将增长1/3以上。数字化交易的趋势势不可挡。</blockquote></p><p> The second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.</p><p><blockquote>第二张图表显示，V作为该领域的领导者，将从这一长期趋势中受益最多。V是全球最大的零售电子支付网络，提供处理服务和支付产品平台。这包括信用卡、借记卡、预付费和商业支付，这些支付以Visa、Visa Electron、Interlink和PLUS品牌提供。Visa/PLUS是全球最大的ATM网络之一。V为200多个国家和地区的数字支付提供便利。它拥有36亿张流通卡，约占全球流通卡总数的16%。它处理了令人难以置信的交易量——2060亿笔支付交易，2020年总交易额为12.5万亿美元——这是支付网络无可争议的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e261998de072e355b6f039912d0f1453\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/036bc8c94696fcfd8ed3403b699534c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visa USA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国签证。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于所谓的“网络效应”，这种主导地位在未来不太可能改变（除非任何重大监管或反托拉斯法发生变化）。网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值。并不是每个网络都享有这种神奇的特性，事实上，大多数网络的边际回报率是递减的——即，额外回报随着网络变大而减少——这将在后面详细说明。连锁餐厅网络就是一个例子。随着网络变得更大，节点开始相互竞争客户，回报减少。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>但某些网络，如V提供的服务，享有这种神奇的特性——网络越大，利润就越高。这个概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这个概念没有什么新意。但是互联网时代极大地放大了网络效应的威力。一旦建立了线索——不管出于什么原因——网络效应就会开始发挥作用，接管并自我复合。</blockquote></p><p> It is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个自我维持的正反馈循环：这个网络中更多的用户将带来更多的便利、更好的效率、更低的成本，这将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值，这反过来将吸引更多的新用户和客户加入，并使现有用户更难离开，这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。这种反馈将反映在非常高的已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）中，这将在后面看到。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，就像所有美好的事情最终都会结束一样，上述网络效应的好处也会结束。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们业务是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看看收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p> And the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，本文的其余部分将研究这两个方面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my&nbsp;earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对ROCE分析细节感兴趣的读者可以在我之前的文章中找到。在这里，我将在下面的图表中总结结果。在这些结果中，我考虑了实际使用的以下项目资本a)营运资本（包括应付账款、应收账款、库存），B)不动产、厂房和设备总额，C)资本化的研发费用，以及D)无形账面价值，主要包括此类业务的知识产权和专利。</blockquote></p><p> As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.</p><p><blockquote>正如所见，它在过去十年中能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平：平均约103%。为了正确看待事情，下图将V的ROCE与FAAMG股票进行了比较，FAAMG股票是一组将网络效应发挥到极致的企业。可以看出，V在其中获得了极具竞争力的ROCE——仅次于苹果(AAPL)。平均而言，每1美元的收益再投资将推动超过1美元的未来收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/877e3bb73de3e6c4fbab1a0133f74464\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f25b4c6dc0c7ee738ac345c3888ae11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</p><p><blockquote>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE指的是这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> V’s MROCE</p><p><blockquote>V的MROCE</blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。而如下图所示，V在这样一个阶段似乎就是这样一个业务。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表显示了近年来V的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量收益或所用资本出现大幅波动的年份，采用多年运行平均值来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> Before we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.</p><p><blockquote>在我们开始解释结果之前，让我首先澄清分析边际资本回报率的困难以及我在这里使用的方法的局限性。首先，从数学上讲，估计变化率（例如，MROCE本质上是什么）比平均变化（ROCE本质上是什么）要困难得多。估计后者需要除以两个大数，不确定性很小。估计前者需要除以两个小数字，财务数据中的不确定性可以被放大。其次，对企业的一些资本投资可能需要多年（超过3年）才能取得成果（或失败）。因此，隔离和跟踪某一年投资产生的边际回报本质上是困难的。尽管大多数项目应该在3年内开始显示结果（无论是好的还是坏的），并且这种方法应该能够捕捉边际回报的主导趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.</p><p><blockquote>有了以上的了解，我们来仔细看看结果。首先，请注意，本世纪初极高的MROCE再次有力地说明了从根本上支持业务的网络效应和长期趋势。商业模式太好了。</blockquote></p><p> The results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.</p><p><blockquote>图表中的结果还显示，在这个阶段，V实际上能够保持实际上高于近年来平均ROCE的MROCE。可以看出，近年来ROCE平均为103%，MROCE平均为157%。这明显低于本世纪初350%以上的水平——重力总是试图迎头赶上。但仍远高于ROCE。而且差距超过50%，太大了，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明V还没有进入收益递减阶段——重力还没有赶上。而如果目前的MROCE继续下去，V的ROCE将维持目前的高水平，甚至进一步扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cea9c214b6d0dd15d8f9c5c1392272e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> After the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.</p><p><blockquote>以上讨论完其盈利持续性，我们再来看看估值。在目前的价格水平上，V的PE约为44倍，FW PE约为39.6倍。估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都很高。例如，与FAAMG pack相比，V目前的估值仅低于亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率，高于所有其他公司。</blockquote></p><p> It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.</p><p><blockquote>如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，下一张图表还将根据ROCE调整后的V估值与同行进行了比较。如果您熟悉巴菲特的持股，您就会认识到这张图表中的股票代表了BRK的一些大型持股。</blockquote></p><p> I am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定当我们在这张图表上添加更多数据点时，情况会是什么样子（我确实计划组织我对其他BRK主要持股的笔记，并在这张图表上添加更多数据点）。但凭借我现在掌握的几个数据点，我忍不住画出/看到了绿线——我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线。它是连接艾伯维公司（ABBV）和苹果公司的一条线——物美价廉的好企业和高价的高质量企业。因此，从价值投资者的角度来看，只有沿着这条线或低于这条线进行投资才有意义。因为沿着这条线或以下的投资代表了质量和价格之间的权衡，相当于或优于ABBV或AAPL。投资高于这条线是没有意义的，因为高于这条线的任何东西都代表着质量和价格之间的劣质权衡——我们最好只投资ABBV和AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，V目前远高于绿线，表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据其ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9fbfdb9a53f0dac2386fcfaf067800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.</p><p><blockquote>长期催化剂是文章开头提到的数字化交易趋势。在我看来，这个趋势是不可阻挡的。电子商务平台的广泛部署将进一步加速这一转变。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:</p><p><blockquote>短期内最重要的催化剂，同时也是风险，是经济复苏的方向和步伐。正如首席财务官所评论的，如果经济活动，尤其是旅游活动恢复到正常水平，V将受益匪浅：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"    <i>Vasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)</i>  In terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by&nbsp;Natalie Koo.</p><p><blockquote>“自从热门旅游目的地开放边境以来，我们已经看到了直接的影响。希腊在4月份开放了边境，截至6月底，入境持卡消费相对于2019年的水平增长了近30个百分点。法国于6月9日开放，截至6月底，入境持卡量相对于2019年增长了近20个百分点...自4月份以来，美国在墨西哥持卡跨境消费增长了近50个百分点，达到2019年水平的170%以上。”<i>Vasant Prabhu，Visa首席财务官（2021财年第三季度看涨期权收益）</i>就风险而言，我看到了前面提到的估值风险。就业务基本面而言，我确实认为短期甚至长期没有任何风险。在我看来，上述疫情的经济复苏并不是真正的根本性风险。即使它朝着错误的方向发展和/或以比预期更慢的速度发展，对V来说也最多是暂时的打嗝。商业模式太健壮，可扩展性太强。从真正的长期来看，我们只能猜测。从长远来看，金融科技和加密货币的破坏肯定是一个潜在的风险。我建议对这些讨论感兴趣的读者阅读Natalie Koo发表的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion and final thought</p><p><blockquote>结论和最后的思考</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析Visa Inc(V)，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.</li>  <li>And the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.</li>  <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</li> </ul> As such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>V不仅在过去获得了持续较高的ROCE，而且在当前阶段仍然具有完美的可扩展性，表明未来将实现可持续利润。</li><li>ROCE平均约为103%，与表现优异的股票（典型的可扩展股票）相比非常有利。</li><li>近年来MROCE平均为157%。所以这个结果表明V还没有达到收益递减的阶段——重力还没有赶上。对于一个规模如此惊人（去年处理了15万亿美元的交易量）的企业来说，仍然保持完美的可扩展性确实令人印象深刻。</li><li>最后，本文还讨论了其估值，特别是与使用我看涨期权的巴菲特价值线享有卓越可扩展性的其他股票相比，根据ROCE调整的估值。V目前远高于价值线，这表明其估值不仅本身昂贵，而且在根据ROCE进行调整后也很昂贵——即使它的ROCE非常出色。</li></ul>因此，我的最终结论是，它仍然是一个完全可扩展的业务，但它的定价不仅仅是完美的。此时的投资需要一些时间、耐心和承诺，让增长赶上估值。它只适合长期承诺的投资者（至少有5年以上的时间范围），他们可以坚持下去，不受任何潜在的近期估值波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459179-visa-stock-scalability-and-buffett-value-line\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459179-visa-stock-scalability-and-buffett-value-line","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174273121","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.\nThis analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.\nThe results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.\nLastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nInvestment thesis\nThis article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).\nThe moat and the network effects\nV’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.\nThe second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.\nSource: Statista\nSource: Visa USA.\nFurthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.\nBut certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).\nAgain, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.\nIt is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.\nUnfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.\nTherefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.\nAnd the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.\nReturn on capital employed (“ROCE”)\nROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.\nAs seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nIntroduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)\nIn addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nA bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.\nThe next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.\nSource: author\nThe ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.\nFor investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).\nV’s MROCE\nSo for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.\nThis chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.\nBefore we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.\nWith the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.\nThe results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nValuation\nAfter the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.\nIt is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.\nI am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.\nAs you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nCatalysts and risks\nThe long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.\nThe most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:\n\n \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"\n\n\nVasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)\n\nIn terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by Natalie Koo.\nConclusion and final thought\nThis article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that:\n\nV not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.\nThe ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.\nAnd the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.\nLastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.\n\nAs such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"V":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828304641,"gmtCreate":1633839356392,"gmtModify":1633839356392,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568626920493898","idStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828304641","repostId":"1115058296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115058296","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633787569,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115058296?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-09 21:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115058296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might","content":"<p>Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.</p><p><blockquote>大多数人听到这个消息不会感到兴奋，但股市崩盘或两位数的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌幅度有多大、持续时间有多长，或者在许多情况下是什么会促使大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分，也是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史并不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are&nbsp;no shortage of tail&nbsp;winds&nbsp;for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘不乏顺风。特别是，历史似乎并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&amp;P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&amp;P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1960年以来，广受关注的标普500在前八次熊市底部之后都表现类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总会出现一两次下跌至少10%的情况。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到17个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“颠簸”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is&nbsp;no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢高估值。截至10月4日星期一收盘，该标普500的席勒市盈率超过37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去10年经通胀调整的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率倍数，但历史非常清楚，当标普500的希勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四次发生这种情况时，基础广泛的指数至少下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's&nbsp;not normal&nbsp;for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就连保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自1995年以来，已有三起保证金债务使用量在某一年跃升至少60%的情况。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始之前。第三个例子是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>标普500似乎将出现大幅但健康的回调。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些万无一失的股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者的焦虑，但这也是买入的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长期来看，它无疑是投资者最伟大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&amp;P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个连续20年不能为投资者带来正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或调整，可以放心地买入以下三只万无一失的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have&nbsp;generated more surefire returns&nbsp;for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自1965年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监管的公司A类股(BRK.A)的平均年回报率为20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今的回报，巴菲特在56年内创造了约6000亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约3,300,000%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is&nbsp;a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管这位奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张时期往往会持续更长时间。因此，他在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合中加入了银行股、科技股和消费必需品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on&nbsp;dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不支付股息，但它有望在2021年获得超过50亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，这一收益率接近5%。由于股息股票几乎总是盈利且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，搭巴菲特的顺风车往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续向股东交付、在股市崩盘期间购买的万无一失的股票是<b>Salesforce.com</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CRM），为基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）提供软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题、监督在线营销活动以及对现有客户群进行预测性销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce&nbsp;sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share&nbsp;<b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>&nbsp;possessed last year on a&nbsp;<i>combined</i>&nbsp;basis.&nbsp; A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供了两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比份额高出整整一个百分点<b>神谕</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年在一个<i>联合的</i>基础。股市的一点动荡不会改变对CRM软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱Salesforce的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff&nbsp;has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫是一位收购专家。对MuleSoft、Tableau以及最近对Slack Technologies的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，预计未来五年年销售额将增长一倍以上，达到500亿美元。投资者购买Salesforce股票可以获得的任何折扣都应被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third&nbsp;surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises&nbsp;is&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整出现，第三只值得买入的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商YouTube的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a&nbsp;91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎不动针。根据GlobalStats的数据，9月份谷歌占据了全球搜索引擎市场92%的份额。回顾两年前，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%至93%的份额。作为广告商的明确首选，Alphabet(Elon Musk)的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet名副其实的互联网搜索垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商YouTube第二季度广告收入飙升84%，年销售额达到280亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为地球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's&nbsp;absolutely no reason&nbsp;for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至6月的季度实现了54%的销售额增长，目前年销售额超过180亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，它应该会成长为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩盘或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在您的买入名单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 21:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.</p><p><blockquote>大多数人听到这个消息不会感到兴奋，但股市崩盘或两位数的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌幅度有多大、持续时间有多长，或者在许多情况下是什么会促使大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分，也是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史并不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are&nbsp;no shortage of tail&nbsp;winds&nbsp;for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘不乏顺风。特别是，历史似乎并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&amp;P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&amp;P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1960年以来，广受关注的标普500在前八次熊市底部之后都表现类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总会出现一两次下跌至少10%的情况。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到17个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“颠簸”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is&nbsp;no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢高估值。截至10月4日星期一收盘，该标普500的席勒市盈率超过37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去10年经通胀调整的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率倍数，但历史非常清楚，当标普500的希勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四次发生这种情况时，基础广泛的指数至少下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's&nbsp;not normal&nbsp;for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就连保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自1995年以来，已有三起保证金债务使用量在某一年跃升至少60%的情况。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始之前。第三个例子是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>标普500似乎将出现大幅但健康的回调。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些万无一失的股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者的焦虑，但这也是买入的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长期来看，它无疑是投资者最伟大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&amp;P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个连续20年不能为投资者带来正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或调整，可以放心地买入以下三只万无一失的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have&nbsp;generated more surefire returns&nbsp;for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自1965年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监管的公司A类股(BRK.A)的平均年回报率为20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今的回报，巴菲特在56年内创造了约6000亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约3,300,000%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is&nbsp;a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管这位奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张时期往往会持续更长时间。因此，他在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合中加入了银行股、科技股和消费必需品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on&nbsp;dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不支付股息，但它有望在2021年获得超过50亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，这一收益率接近5%。由于股息股票几乎总是盈利且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，搭巴菲特的顺风车往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续向股东交付、在股市崩盘期间购买的万无一失的股票是<b>Salesforce.com</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CRM），为基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）提供软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题、监督在线营销活动以及对现有客户群进行预测性销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce&nbsp;sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share&nbsp;<b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>&nbsp;possessed last year on a&nbsp;<i>combined</i>&nbsp;basis.&nbsp; A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供了两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比份额高出整整一个百分点<b>神谕</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年在一个<i>联合的</i>基础。股市的一点动荡不会改变对CRM软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱Salesforce的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff&nbsp;has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫是一位收购专家。对MuleSoft、Tableau以及最近对Slack Technologies的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，预计未来五年年销售额将增长一倍以上，达到500亿美元。投资者购买Salesforce股票可以获得的任何折扣都应被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third&nbsp;surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises&nbsp;is&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整出现，第三只值得买入的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商YouTube的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a&nbsp;91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎不动针。根据GlobalStats的数据，9月份谷歌占据了全球搜索引擎市场92%的份额。回顾两年前，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%至93%的份额。作为广告商的明确首选，Alphabet(Elon Musk)的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet名副其实的互联网搜索垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商YouTube第二季度广告收入飙升84%，年销售额达到280亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为地球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's&nbsp;absolutely no reason&nbsp;for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至6月的季度实现了54%的销售额增长，目前年销售额超过180亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，它应该会成长为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩盘或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在您的买入名单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115058296","content_text":"Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.\nTo be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.\nHistory isn't the market's friend in the near term\nAt the moment, there are no shortage of tail winds for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.\nFor instance, the widely followed S&P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"\nHistory is no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.\nEven the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's not normal for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.\nThe table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&P 500.\nA crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks\nWhile big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.\nFor example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.\nShould this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.\nBerkshire Hathaway\nFew stocks have generated more surefire returns for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.\nThough there is a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.\nAnother reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.\nLong story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.\nSalesforce\nAnother surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).\nFor those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.\nCloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share Oracle,SAP,Microsoft, and Adobe possessed last year on a combined basis.  A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.\nWhat's more, CEO Marc Benioff has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.\nAlphabet\nA third surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises is Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.\nWhen it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a 91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.\nWhat might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.\nMeanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's absolutely no reason for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"CRM":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887892517,"gmtCreate":1632014820839,"gmtModify":1632803356540,"author":{"id":"3568626920493898","authorId":"3568626920493898","name":"LYDIA71","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568626920493898","idStr":"3568626920493898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887892517","repostId":"1171558890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171558890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631921912,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171558890?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-18 07:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化14周IPO周</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171558890","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billio","content":"<p>Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.</p><p><blockquote>夏季可能已经结束，但IPO市场刚刚升温，未来一周将有14起IPO筹集53亿美元。多元化的群体包括软件、消费品、支付技术等等。</blockquote></p><p> The largest deal of the week,<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&amp;M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.</p><p><blockquote>本周最大的交易，<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH)计划以96亿美元的市值筹集8.55亿美元。该公司的核心产品是其客户支持软件，它还提供IT服务管理软件和CRM解决方案的新兴竞争对手。虽然亏损预计会随着S&amp;M支出的增加而增加，但截至2011年6月30日，Freshworks实现了稳健的增长和100%以上的净美元收入保留率。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian consumer products company&nbsp;<b>Knowlton Development</b>(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大消费品公司<b>诺尔顿发展</b>(KDC)计划以31亿美元的市值筹集8亿美元。在过去的三年里，Knowlton负责共同开发了9,000多种产品，其产品由70多个国家的品牌合作伙伴销售。尽管诺尔顿将使用发行收益来偿还债务，但IPO后仍将发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant payment processor&nbsp;<b>Toast</b>(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅支付处理器<b>吐司</b>(TOST)计划以179亿美元的市值筹集6.85亿美元。Toast提供一套集成支付和软件解决方案，旨在简化餐厅运营。该公司在2021年上半年的ARR增长率超过100%，尽管它历来没有盈利，而且随着餐厅重新开业的推动力减弱，增长可能会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Global money transfer firm&nbsp;<b>Remitly Global</b>(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.</p><p><blockquote>全球汇款公司<b>全球汇款</b>(RELY)计划以75亿美元的市值筹集4.87亿美元。Remitly为超过135个国家的移民及其家人提供数字金融服务，并已将其核心跨境汇款产品扩展到全球1,700多个走廊。该公司已实现增长和利润率提高，但仍未盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Software firm&nbsp;<b>Clearwater Analytics</b>(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>软件公司<b>清水分析</b>(CWAN)计划以37亿美元的市值筹集4.5亿美元。Clearwater为其1,000多家客户提供云原生软件，使他们能够简化投资会计操作，并且该公司拥有100%的经常性收入模式。一位新投资者和某些现有股东打算在IPO中购买价值1.5亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Food company&nbsp;<b>Sovos Brands</b>(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>食品公司<b>索沃斯品牌</b>(SOVO)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。Sovos Brands由Advent International组建，提供一组精选的收购优质食品品牌。据该公司称，其最大的产品品牌Rao’s是意大利面和披萨酱类别中销量第一的SKU。Sovos盈利稳健增长，IPO后将发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Customer engagement software provider&nbsp;<b>EngageSmart</b>(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.</p><p><blockquote>客户参与软件提供商<b>参与智能</b>(ESMT)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集3.49亿美元。该公司提供简化在线工作流程的软件，如无纸化计费、电子支付处理、日程安排和客户沟通。虽然大流行后增长可能会放缓，但EngageSmart拥有粘性客户群和长期的盈利记录。</blockquote></p><p> Hiring solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Sterling Check</b>(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.</p><p><blockquote>招聘解决方案提供商<b>英镑支票</b>(STER)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。Sterling是美国领先的企业和政府客户背景调查提供商之一。尽管该公司在竞争激烈的市场中运营，但该公司为超过50%的财富100强企业提供服务，通常签订独家合同。</blockquote></p><p> Jewelry retailer&nbsp;<b>Brilliant Earth Group</b>(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.</p><p><blockquote>珠宝零售商<b>辉煌地球集团</b>(BRLT)计划以14亿澳元筹集2.5亿美元。Brilliant Earth是一家数字优先的珠宝公司，也是道德采购高级珠宝的全球领导者。该公司已向美国所有州和50多个国家的消费者销售产品，并通过其电子商务平台和13个展厅为超过370,000名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> Online fashion platform&nbsp;<b>a.k.a. Brands</b>(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&amp;A strategy carries execution risk.</p><p><blockquote>线上时尚平台<b>又名品牌</b>(AKA)计划以23亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。a.k.a.收购面向千禧一代和Z世代消费者的数字化时尚品牌，从2018年收购Princess Polly开始。该公司已经成功扩张了波利公主，并且在美国发展品牌还有很长的路要走，但其并购战略存在执行风险。</blockquote></p><p> COVID-19 test maker&nbsp;<b>Cue Health</b>(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19测试制造商<b>提示健康</b>(HLTH)计划以24亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。Cue首个用于其Cue健康监测系统的商用诊断测试是其COVID-19检测试剂盒，该试剂盒已获得两个EUA的授权。Cue还有另外五个测试套件处于后期技术开发阶段，预计将在2022年下半年开始寻求FDA授权或批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> London-listed crypto mining company&nbsp;<b>Argo Blockchain</b>(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦上市的加密货币挖矿公司<b>Argo区块链</b>(ARBK)计划以8.55亿美元的市值筹集1.38亿美元。Argo表示，它是一家领先的区块链技术公司，专注于比特币和其他加密货币的大规模挖掘。Argo拥有超过21,000台专用计算机（矿机），每秒可生成超过1,075 petahash。</blockquote></p><p> Personalized supplements seller&nbsp;<b>Thorne Healthtech</b>(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.</p><p><blockquote>个性化补充剂卖家<b>索恩健康科技</b>(THRN)计划以8.92亿美元的市值筹集1.26亿美元。该公司的垂直整合品牌Thorne和Onegevity提供可操作的见解和个性化数据、产品和服务。Thorne盈利强劲增长，拥有超过300万客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian bank&nbsp;<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大银行<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK)计划以2.69亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。VersaBank是加拿大附表一特许银行，并表示它是世界上首批完全数字化的金融机构之一。截至2021年7月31日，VersaBank拥有18亿美元资产、16亿美元贷款、15亿美元存款和2.02亿美元股东权益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化14周IPO周</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化14周IPO周</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-18 07:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.</p><p><blockquote>夏季可能已经结束，但IPO市场刚刚升温，未来一周将有14起IPO筹集53亿美元。多元化的群体包括软件、消费品、支付技术等等。</blockquote></p><p> The largest deal of the week,<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&amp;M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.</p><p><blockquote>本周最大的交易，<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH)计划以96亿美元的市值筹集8.55亿美元。该公司的核心产品是其客户支持软件，它还提供IT服务管理软件和CRM解决方案的新兴竞争对手。虽然亏损预计会随着S&amp;M支出的增加而增加，但截至2011年6月30日，Freshworks实现了稳健的增长和100%以上的净美元收入保留率。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian consumer products company&nbsp;<b>Knowlton Development</b>(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大消费品公司<b>诺尔顿发展</b>(KDC)计划以31亿美元的市值筹集8亿美元。在过去的三年里，Knowlton负责共同开发了9,000多种产品，其产品由70多个国家的品牌合作伙伴销售。尽管诺尔顿将使用发行收益来偿还债务，但IPO后仍将发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant payment processor&nbsp;<b>Toast</b>(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅支付处理器<b>吐司</b>(TOST)计划以179亿美元的市值筹集6.85亿美元。Toast提供一套集成支付和软件解决方案，旨在简化餐厅运营。该公司在2021年上半年的ARR增长率超过100%，尽管它历来没有盈利，而且随着餐厅重新开业的推动力减弱，增长可能会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Global money transfer firm&nbsp;<b>Remitly Global</b>(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.</p><p><blockquote>全球汇款公司<b>全球汇款</b>(RELY)计划以75亿美元的市值筹集4.87亿美元。Remitly为超过135个国家的移民及其家人提供数字金融服务，并已将其核心跨境汇款产品扩展到全球1,700多个走廊。该公司已实现增长和利润率提高，但仍未盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Software firm&nbsp;<b>Clearwater Analytics</b>(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>软件公司<b>清水分析</b>(CWAN)计划以37亿美元的市值筹集4.5亿美元。Clearwater为其1,000多家客户提供云原生软件，使他们能够简化投资会计操作，并且该公司拥有100%的经常性收入模式。一位新投资者和某些现有股东打算在IPO中购买价值1.5亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Food company&nbsp;<b>Sovos Brands</b>(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>食品公司<b>索沃斯品牌</b>(SOVO)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。Sovos Brands由Advent International组建，提供一组精选的收购优质食品品牌。据该公司称，其最大的产品品牌Rao’s是意大利面和披萨酱类别中销量第一的SKU。Sovos盈利稳健增长，IPO后将发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Customer engagement software provider&nbsp;<b>EngageSmart</b>(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.</p><p><blockquote>客户参与软件提供商<b>参与智能</b>(ESMT)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集3.49亿美元。该公司提供简化在线工作流程的软件，如无纸化计费、电子支付处理、日程安排和客户沟通。虽然大流行后增长可能会放缓，但EngageSmart拥有粘性客户群和长期的盈利记录。</blockquote></p><p> Hiring solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Sterling Check</b>(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.</p><p><blockquote>招聘解决方案提供商<b>英镑支票</b>(STER)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。Sterling是美国领先的企业和政府客户背景调查提供商之一。尽管该公司在竞争激烈的市场中运营，但该公司为超过50%的财富100强企业提供服务，通常签订独家合同。</blockquote></p><p> Jewelry retailer&nbsp;<b>Brilliant Earth Group</b>(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.</p><p><blockquote>珠宝零售商<b>辉煌地球集团</b>(BRLT)计划以14亿澳元筹集2.5亿美元。Brilliant Earth是一家数字优先的珠宝公司，也是道德采购高级珠宝的全球领导者。该公司已向美国所有州和50多个国家的消费者销售产品，并通过其电子商务平台和13个展厅为超过370,000名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> Online fashion platform&nbsp;<b>a.k.a. Brands</b>(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&amp;A strategy carries execution risk.</p><p><blockquote>线上时尚平台<b>又名品牌</b>(AKA)计划以23亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。a.k.a.收购面向千禧一代和Z世代消费者的数字化时尚品牌，从2018年收购Princess Polly开始。该公司已经成功扩张了波利公主，并且在美国发展品牌还有很长的路要走，但其并购战略存在执行风险。</blockquote></p><p> COVID-19 test maker&nbsp;<b>Cue Health</b>(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19测试制造商<b>提示健康</b>(HLTH)计划以24亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。Cue首个用于其Cue健康监测系统的商用诊断测试是其COVID-19检测试剂盒，该试剂盒已获得两个EUA的授权。Cue还有另外五个测试套件处于后期技术开发阶段，预计将在2022年下半年开始寻求FDA授权或批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> London-listed crypto mining company&nbsp;<b>Argo Blockchain</b>(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦上市的加密货币挖矿公司<b>Argo区块链</b>(ARBK)计划以8.55亿美元的市值筹集1.38亿美元。Argo表示，它是一家领先的区块链技术公司，专注于比特币和其他加密货币的大规模挖掘。Argo拥有超过21,000台专用计算机（矿机），每秒可生成超过1,075 petahash。</blockquote></p><p> Personalized supplements seller&nbsp;<b>Thorne Healthtech</b>(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.</p><p><blockquote>个性化补充剂卖家<b>索恩健康科技</b>(THRN)计划以8.92亿美元的市值筹集1.26亿美元。该公司的垂直整合品牌Thorne和Onegevity提供可操作的见解和个性化数据、产品和服务。Thorne盈利强劲增长，拥有超过300万客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian bank&nbsp;<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大银行<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK)计划以2.69亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。VersaBank是加拿大附表一特许银行，并表示它是世界上首批完全数字化的金融机构之一。截至2021年7月31日，VersaBank拥有18亿美元资产、16亿美元贷款、15亿美元存款和2.02亿美元股东权益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86272/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Software-consumer-products-and-payment-tech-lead-a-divers\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STER":"Sterling Check Corp.","ESMT":"EngageSmart Inc.","AKA":"a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp.","HLTH":"Cue Health Inc.","CWAN":"Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc.","TOST":"Toast, Inc.","FRSH":"Freshworks","SOVO":"Sovos Brands, Inc.","ARBK":"Argo Blockchain Plc","BRLT":"Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.","RELY":"Remitly Global, Inc.","THRN":"Thorne Healthtech"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86272/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Software-consumer-products-and-payment-tech-lead-a-divers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171558890","content_text":"Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.\nThe largest deal of the week,Freshworks(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.\nCanadian consumer products company Knowlton Development(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.\nRestaurant payment processor Toast(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.\nGlobal money transfer firm Remitly Global(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.\nSoftware firm Clearwater Analytics(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.\nFood company Sovos Brands(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.\nCustomer engagement software provider EngageSmart(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.\nHiring solutions provider Sterling Check(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.\nJewelry retailer Brilliant Earth Group(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.\nOnline fashion platform a.k.a. Brands(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&A strategy carries execution risk.\nCOVID-19 test maker Cue Health(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.\nLondon-listed crypto mining company Argo Blockchain(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.\nPersonalized supplements seller Thorne Healthtech(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.\nCanadian bank VersaBank(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOVO":0.9,"TOST":0.9,"FRSH":0.9,"THRN":0.9,"AKA":0.9,"ARBK":0.9,"HLTH":0.9,"STER":0.9,"KDC":0.9,"ESMT":0.9,"CWAN":0.9,"BRLT":0.9,"RELY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}