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烙饼不翻个

烙饼不翻个

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IP属地：黑龙江

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烙饼不翻个

04-10

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

Destiny Tech100 Inc. Soars 1100% In Just Days, So Here's A Closer Look At It

烙饼不翻个

2023-05-11

$谷歌(GOOG)$ 广告太多。每个股下边的评论清一色的广告……

烙饼不翻个

2022-06-06

$滴滴(DIDI)$涨百分之六十多股价也没见多几块[龇牙] ，就盼着能有个好结局吧。

烙饼不翻个

2022-05-23

$滴滴(DIDI)$随便拉我十八块的本。

烙饼不翻个

2022-05-23

然后呢？后续怎么处理呢。

滴滴确认将从美国退市！盘前股价巨震

烙饼不翻个

2022-02-17

$滴滴(DIDI)$退市的进度怎么样了？还有回港上市的消息？

烙饼不翻个

2021-12-23

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$当初那么看好你，可是…….

烙饼不翻个

2021-12-01

炸毁美联储活捉鲍威尔

鲍威尔：关于通胀，该放弃“暂时”这个词了

烙饼不翻个

2021-07-02

$AMD(AMD)$ 感觉是一部分人吃饱了先撤了的节奏啊

烙饼不翻个

2021-07-01

$AMD(AMD)$ 盘前就都开始跑了？

烙饼不翻个

2021-06-30

$AMD(AMD)$ 要飞吗？

烙饼不翻个

2021-06-04

$蔚来(NIO)$老虎搞活动送蔚来期权？

烙饼不翻个

2021-03-31

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 持仓数你跌的惨

烙饼不翻个

2021-03-25

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$怎一个惨字啊

烙饼不翻个

2021-03-15

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$小破站这是咋了跌起来没完了？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293749887865112","repostId":"1181153204","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181153204","pubTimestamp":1712630700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181153204?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-09 10:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Destiny Tech100 Inc. Soars 1100% In Just Days, So Here's A Closer Look At It","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181153204","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"No. And this is not meme stock. In fact, it is not even a stock. It is a closed-end fund, the Destiny Tech100 Inc. . Closed-end funds are not supposed to skyrocket like stock IPOs, even if their top holding is Elon Musk's SpaceX.When I first started to dive into this \"unidentified financial object\" I saw it referred to as an ETF on one of my charting systems, and as a stock on another source. That source did not have a spot for the fund's holdings to be listed, just a place where financial state","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1072425380\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A new closed-end fund, DXYZ, has experienced significant price volatility, reaching a peak of $105 per share before closing around $99.</p></li><li><p>DXYZ is not a stock or an ETF, but a closed-end fund that holds a portfolio of 100 private companies, with SpaceX being its largest holding.</p></li><li><p>The fund offers potential for high returns, but also carries significant risk, and investors should approach it with caution and consider its role in their portfolio.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55232d7952a7b90164577c36d3b24c7c\" alt=\"John M Lund Photography Inc\" title=\"John M Lund Photography Inc\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"572\"/><span>John M Lund Photography Inc</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Stop me if you&#39;ve heard this one before: a new closed-end fund debuts at $8.25 a share, and during its nine days of life as a listed security, peaks at $105. And just this Monday, trades in a 62% range, closing approached the top of that range, at around $100. Did Nvidia (NVDA) and GameStop (GME) have a baby? No. And this is not meme stock. In fact, it is not even a stock. It is a closed-end fund, the Destiny Tech100 Inc. (NYSE:DXYZ). Closed-end funds are not supposed to skyrocket like stock IPOs, even if their top holding is Elon Musk&#39;s SpaceX.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">When I first started to dive into this &#34;unidentified financial object&#34; I saw it referred to as an ETF on one of my charting systems, and as a stock on another source. That source did not have a spot for the fund&#39;s holdings to be listed, just a place where financial statements would go. For a stock! So, since the investment industry has not yet figured out what this is, I will sort out the ABCs of DXYZ. As for how to rate it, my true rating is &#34;check it out for yourself and tread lightly if you do decide to buy it.&#34; Because while I will probably buy a few shares, that&#39;s more to track it in my &#34;spec&#34; account, which is short for speculative.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As I explain below, this is a unique way to allow &#34;regular folks&#34; like me to invest in a basket of 100 potentially big winners which are currently private companies. At worst, it could end up being only as good as investing in the private equity business. Historically, that means early entrants get the best returns, and by the time &#34;anyone&#34; can get in, the cycle is over. That leads to the masses ending up feeling like the ones holding the bag of money when the police show up in one of those classic crime movies.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Still, my approach to investing is that ANY investment has potential to increase in price for any reason. The difference between a hypothetical security &#34;ABC&#34; and the very real DXYZ is how much risk of major loss is attached. That is a function of 2 things: what price movement occurs when DXYZ is owned, and more importantly, how much of a portfolio&#39;s total assets DXYZ makes up. For me, I am going to buy something along the lines of a small fraction of 1%, just to watch it. So when I take the fact that I&#39;ll own it, combined with the very puny size of my initial position, converting that rating into Seeking Alpha terms gets me to a Hold on DXYZ. Now, let&#39;s explore what this is and why I landed where I did. And yes, that was a SpaceX pun.</p><h2 id=\"id_2703725677\" style=\"text-align: left;\">What is DXYZ?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">DXYZ is a closed-end fund that holds, which means it trades on the stock exchange, but represents a portfolio or basket of securities, not a company. So it is a fund, but different from a traditional &#34;open-end&#34; mutual fund or an ETF. That difference comes from the fact that a closed end fund has a fixed number of shares, and so the basic concept of supply and demand is a big factor. The underlying value of the securities in DXYZ&#39;s portfolio, those 100 private companies, is not &#34;marked to market&#34; each day. So how is their value determined? By whatever price buyers and sellers in the market determine it to be. Just as with a single stock.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">DXYZ has 10.88 million shares outstanding, so its market cap as of last Friday stood at $644 million. That puts it near the top quartile in assets under management of the 418 closed-end funds on US markets.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The fund aims to get to the 100 company mark, though it currently has about 1/4 of that number. These are pre-IPO companies, and for what it&#39;s worth Destiny&#39;s website claims that &#34;for many companies in the pre-IPO stage, there is a real opportunity to achieve a 10x-50x return.&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_1468495728\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Holdings: the &#34;who&#39;s who&#34; of private companies, in one ticker</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I don&#39;t know what will become of this list of private businesses, but the access that DXYZ&#39;s managers have to own a piece of them is impressive to me. SpaceX is more than 1/3 of the fund so far, but I suspect as the portfolio fills out, that may dip. Even if it doesn&#39;t there are many chances to win here.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6efb72f2a0e16d98cee1732b11352f97\" alt=\"destiny.xyz\" title=\"destiny.xyz\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"953\"/><span>destiny.xyz</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This link to DXYZ&#39;s website does a nice job of detailing the process they use to construct the fund, and this is well above the level of description offered by many closed-end funds and ETFs. That&#39;s a big plus to me.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">And, this link to DXYZ&#39;s 12/31/2023 filing provides some helpful additional information. It was issued back before it was a listed security. Note that the fund lost 7.3% in 2023, 50% below the return of the Nasdaq Composite. And the fund was down 23% from its 5/12/2022 inception through the end of last year, versus a nearly 20% gain for the Nasdaq. I see this as a positive, given the cyclicality of private equity discussed below.</p><h2 id=\"id_1453002603\" style=\"text-align: left;\">What is the reward potential of DXYZ?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI is more than just a buzzword now. It is our future, we just don&#39;t know the path it will take. There will be winners, big winners and also losers. Perhaps the most attractive feature of DXYZ is the nature of private equity investing itself. Whereas traditional equity investing is focused on diversification to spread risk, I have always thought of private equity differently. Here, you go in knowing that risk is extremely high, but if you spread that over 100 companies, it might only take a handful making it big to more than offset whatever failures occur in the rest of the group.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Frankly, the Nasdaq 100 has performed a lot more like private equity over the past six months than a standard, evenly-distributed pattern of stock market winners and losers. Here is a snapshot from those past 6 months. Note that the big winners in green all contributed a dominant amount in dollars per share (in the QQQ ETF) as shown above, and in percentage &#34;attribution&#34; in the bottom table, not only the past half year but for the past year as well.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c1bed6c4e6aed2a33e6f31615a308b8e\" alt=\"YCharts\" title=\"YCharts\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\"/><span>YCharts</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Nasdaq 100 Index is up 23% the past 6 months, but more than half of that (13%) came from just 8 of the 100 stocks. This &#34;feast or famine&#34; set of results is likely more common and more pronounced going forward in private equity, and thus positions DXYZ for me as either an enticing small position, or a truly &#34;token&#34; position, which is even smaller, just enough to have it appear on my holdings screen.</p><h2 id=\"id_2466327410\" style=\"text-align: left;\">What are the key risk factors in owning DXYZ?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While DXYZ represents the next step in the democratization of investing, where any investor can try to profit from the future gains of private businesses, the biggest risk I see is not with the fund itself. It is with how investors use it. In the same way that meme stock investors refused to sell after making life-changing gains, I am always wary of seeing investors extrapolate past gains forward. That said, here&#39;s some history, albeit with the disclaimer that private equity and venture capital are diverse beasts, and indexing that market is not precise as it is with the S&amp;P 500, as I compare it to here.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The S&amp;P 500 has had a nice run for the past 10 years or so. Same for private equity.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5614192e118a907c34dce3c590f274fd\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>However, when we look at rolling returns, as I always do, to find the return path, rather than just a snapshot, we see the past non-correlation of the 2. These are annualized 5-year total returns. So yes, your eyes do not deceive you. The private equity index has seen gains of roughly 100% a year for 5 years, and also seen losses of 60% per year for 5 years. All of that just in the past 10 years!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b9a0c6e2407273fe1a3d31c88f5dc49\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">There is a cycle here, and I am not surprised to see private equity near the top of the cycle. This is also exactly when I&#39;d expect a fund like DXYZ to debut: when they can ride the wave of greed and FOMO around an asset class. This is why for my own money, I insist on prioritizing position size in most assets over what I actually own. That may sound strange to some, but simply put, a 10%-20% position in anything is likely to provide more reward and risk than a 1%-2% position in anything, except T-bills.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Looking forward, Northern Trust projects an annualized long-term return of 9.6% in private equity, versus 6.3% for global stocks. My only reaction is that private equity will typically have a higher return than common stocks. The question is whether there is a plus sign or minus sign in front of that return.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b75a559ec6fc135ea15c082c2c410a35\" alt=\"northerntrust.com\" title=\"northerntrust.com\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"407\"/><span>northerntrust.com</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad78df1de3513397ec72dd0ed5304d3f\" alt=\"northerntrust.com\" title=\"northerntrust.com\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\"/><span>northerntrust.com</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">There is also a big expense ratio here, 2.5%, well above most funds, though not out of line for a closed-end fund. My take on expense ratio: wholly overrated by investors, especially my peers in the profession. If one is buying an S&amp;P 500 index fund to hold for 20 years, surely expense ratio is a critical factor.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">But that&#39;s a commoditized investment. This is a unique investment, and you get what you pay for. McDonald&#39;s and that high end steak restaurant are not priced the same, yet some may prefer one over the other. If you pay up for something but get more return, or at least more &#34;potential&#34; return from doing so, I truly do not care too much about what I paid for it, at least up to 2-3% expense ratio. No doubt others will disagree, and they do. That&#39;s what makes a market.</p><h2 id=\"id_3158318430\" style=\"text-align: left;\">What I&#39;m doing with DXYZ</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I will start with a mere 0.5% of my own total portfolio, with an eye toward moving it up to 1%, and then as much as 5% if I can do so after netting some unrealized gains. But I&#39;m willing to lose a chunk of that 1% position, as I see potential upside beyond that small amount of risk I&#39;m taking.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">By the way, every investing decision I make involves a similar calculation, and I think this is the number one thing missing from many investors&#39; processes. That&#39;s why I keep bringing it up.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">So, DXYZ gets a buy rating from me right out of the gate. But as they say, size matters, and my position size here is going to be very low for now, as I see if this first of its kind listed security has the potential it seems to have.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Destiny Tech100 Inc. Soars 1100% In Just Days, So Here's A Closer Look At It</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDestiny Tech100 Inc. Soars 1100% In Just Days, So Here's A Closer Look At It\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-09 10:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4682523-destiny-tech100-inc-dxyz-rose-800-percent-in-just-days-a-closer-look><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA new closed-end fund, DXYZ, has experienced significant price volatility, reaching a peak of $105 per share before closing around $99.DXYZ is not a stock or an ETF, but a closed-end fund that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4682523-destiny-tech100-inc-dxyz-rose-800-percent-in-just-days-a-closer-look\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4682523-destiny-tech100-inc-dxyz-rose-800-percent-in-just-days-a-closer-look","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1181153204","content_text":"SummaryA new closed-end fund, DXYZ, has experienced significant price volatility, reaching a peak of $105 per share before closing around $99.DXYZ is not a stock or an ETF, but a closed-end fund that holds a portfolio of 100 private companies, with SpaceX being its largest holding.The fund offers potential for high returns, but also carries significant risk, and investors should approach it with caution and consider its role in their portfolio.John M Lund Photography IncStop me if you've heard this one before: a new closed-end fund debuts at $8.25 a share, and during its nine days of life as a listed security, peaks at $105. And just this Monday, trades in a 62% range, closing approached the top of that range, at around $100. Did Nvidia (NVDA) and GameStop (GME) have a baby? No. And this is not meme stock. In fact, it is not even a stock. It is a closed-end fund, the Destiny Tech100 Inc. (NYSE:DXYZ). Closed-end funds are not supposed to skyrocket like stock IPOs, even if their top holding is Elon Musk's SpaceX.When I first started to dive into this \"unidentified financial object\" I saw it referred to as an ETF on one of my charting systems, and as a stock on another source. That source did not have a spot for the fund's holdings to be listed, just a place where financial statements would go. For a stock! So, since the investment industry has not yet figured out what this is, I will sort out the ABCs of DXYZ. As for how to rate it, my true rating is \"check it out for yourself and tread lightly if you do decide to buy it.\" Because while I will probably buy a few shares, that's more to track it in my \"spec\" account, which is short for speculative.As I explain below, this is a unique way to allow \"regular folks\" like me to invest in a basket of 100 potentially big winners which are currently private companies. At worst, it could end up being only as good as investing in the private equity business. Historically, that means early entrants get the best returns, and by the time \"anyone\" can get in, the cycle is over. That leads to the masses ending up feeling like the ones holding the bag of money when the police show up in one of those classic crime movies.Still, my approach to investing is that ANY investment has potential to increase in price for any reason. The difference between a hypothetical security \"ABC\" and the very real DXYZ is how much risk of major loss is attached. That is a function of 2 things: what price movement occurs when DXYZ is owned, and more importantly, how much of a portfolio's total assets DXYZ makes up. For me, I am going to buy something along the lines of a small fraction of 1%, just to watch it. So when I take the fact that I'll own it, combined with the very puny size of my initial position, converting that rating into Seeking Alpha terms gets me to a Hold on DXYZ. Now, let's explore what this is and why I landed where I did. And yes, that was a SpaceX pun.What is DXYZ?DXYZ is a closed-end fund that holds, which means it trades on the stock exchange, but represents a portfolio or basket of securities, not a company. So it is a fund, but different from a traditional \"open-end\" mutual fund or an ETF. That difference comes from the fact that a closed end fund has a fixed number of shares, and so the basic concept of supply and demand is a big factor. The underlying value of the securities in DXYZ's portfolio, those 100 private companies, is not \"marked to market\" each day. So how is their value determined? By whatever price buyers and sellers in the market determine it to be. Just as with a single stock.DXYZ has 10.88 million shares outstanding, so its market cap as of last Friday stood at $644 million. That puts it near the top quartile in assets under management of the 418 closed-end funds on US markets.The fund aims to get to the 100 company mark, though it currently has about 1/4 of that number. These are pre-IPO companies, and for what it's worth Destiny's website claims that \"for many companies in the pre-IPO stage, there is a real opportunity to achieve a 10x-50x return.\"Holdings: the \"who's who\" of private companies, in one tickerI don't know what will become of this list of private businesses, but the access that DXYZ's managers have to own a piece of them is impressive to me. SpaceX is more than 1/3 of the fund so far, but I suspect as the portfolio fills out, that may dip. Even if it doesn't there are many chances to win here.destiny.xyzThis link to DXYZ's website does a nice job of detailing the process they use to construct the fund, and this is well above the level of description offered by many closed-end funds and ETFs. That's a big plus to me.And, this link to DXYZ's 12/31/2023 filing provides some helpful additional information. It was issued back before it was a listed security. Note that the fund lost 7.3% in 2023, 50% below the return of the Nasdaq Composite. And the fund was down 23% from its 5/12/2022 inception through the end of last year, versus a nearly 20% gain for the Nasdaq. I see this as a positive, given the cyclicality of private equity discussed below.What is the reward potential of DXYZ?AI is more than just a buzzword now. It is our future, we just don't know the path it will take. There will be winners, big winners and also losers. Perhaps the most attractive feature of DXYZ is the nature of private equity investing itself. Whereas traditional equity investing is focused on diversification to spread risk, I have always thought of private equity differently. Here, you go in knowing that risk is extremely high, but if you spread that over 100 companies, it might only take a handful making it big to more than offset whatever failures occur in the rest of the group.Frankly, the Nasdaq 100 has performed a lot more like private equity over the past six months than a standard, evenly-distributed pattern of stock market winners and losers. Here is a snapshot from those past 6 months. Note that the big winners in green all contributed a dominant amount in dollars per share (in the QQQ ETF) as shown above, and in percentage \"attribution\" in the bottom table, not only the past half year but for the past year as well.YChartsThe Nasdaq 100 Index is up 23% the past 6 months, but more than half of that (13%) came from just 8 of the 100 stocks. This \"feast or famine\" set of results is likely more common and more pronounced going forward in private equity, and thus positions DXYZ for me as either an enticing small position, or a truly \"token\" position, which is even smaller, just enough to have it appear on my holdings screen.What are the key risk factors in owning DXYZ?While DXYZ represents the next step in the democratization of investing, where any investor can try to profit from the future gains of private businesses, the biggest risk I see is not with the fund itself. It is with how investors use it. In the same way that meme stock investors refused to sell after making life-changing gains, I am always wary of seeing investors extrapolate past gains forward. That said, here's some history, albeit with the disclaimer that private equity and venture capital are diverse beasts, and indexing that market is not precise as it is with the S&P 500, as I compare it to here.The S&P 500 has had a nice run for the past 10 years or so. Same for private equity.Data by YChartsHowever, when we look at rolling returns, as I always do, to find the return path, rather than just a snapshot, we see the past non-correlation of the 2. These are annualized 5-year total returns. So yes, your eyes do not deceive you. The private equity index has seen gains of roughly 100% a year for 5 years, and also seen losses of 60% per year for 5 years. All of that just in the past 10 years!Data by YChartsThere is a cycle here, and I am not surprised to see private equity near the top of the cycle. This is also exactly when I'd expect a fund like DXYZ to debut: when they can ride the wave of greed and FOMO around an asset class. This is why for my own money, I insist on prioritizing position size in most assets over what I actually own. That may sound strange to some, but simply put, a 10%-20% position in anything is likely to provide more reward and risk than a 1%-2% position in anything, except T-bills.Looking forward, Northern Trust projects an annualized long-term return of 9.6% in private equity, versus 6.3% for global stocks. My only reaction is that private equity will typically have a higher return than common stocks. The question is whether there is a plus sign or minus sign in front of that return.northerntrust.comnortherntrust.comThere is also a big expense ratio here, 2.5%, well above most funds, though not out of line for a closed-end fund. My take on expense ratio: wholly overrated by investors, especially my peers in the profession. If one is buying an S&P 500 index fund to hold for 20 years, surely expense ratio is a critical factor.But that's a commoditized investment. This is a unique investment, and you get what you pay for. McDonald's and that high end steak restaurant are not priced the same, yet some may prefer one over the other. If you pay up for something but get more return, or at least more \"potential\" return from doing so, I truly do not care too much about what I paid for it, at least up to 2-3% expense ratio. No doubt others will disagree, and they do. That's what makes a market.What I'm doing with DXYZI will start with a mere 0.5% of my own total portfolio, with an eye toward moving it up to 1%, and then as much as 5% if I can do so after netting some unrealized gains. But I'm willing to lose a chunk of that 1% position, as I see potential upside beyond that small amount of risk I'm taking.By the way, every investing decision I make involves a similar calculation, and I think this is the number one thing missing from many investors' processes. That's why I keep bringing it up.So, DXYZ gets a buy rating from me right out of the gate. But as they say, size matters, and my position size here is going to be very low for now, as I see if this first of its kind listed security has the potential it seems to have.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":656561746,"gmtCreate":1683809908485,"gmtModify":1683809909548,"author":{"id":"3568272018922737","authorId":"3568272018922737","name":"烙饼不翻个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bf0ec929f35272a8b334fa3f29040a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a>广告太多。每个股下边的评论清一色的广告……","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a>广告太多。每个股下边的评论清一色的广告……","text":"$谷歌(GOOG)$ 广告太多。每个股下边的评论清一色的广告……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656561746","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":617551266,"gmtCreate":1654521713557,"gmtModify":1704859608071,"author":{"id":"3568272018922737","authorId":"3568272018922737","name":"烙饼不翻个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bf0ec929f35272a8b334fa3f29040a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>涨百分之六十多股价也没见多几块[龇牙]&nbsp;，就盼着能有个好结局吧。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>涨百分之六十多股价也没见多几块[龇牙]&nbsp;，就盼着能有个好结局吧。","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$涨百分之六十多股价也没见多几块[龇牙] ，就盼着能有个好结局吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/617551266","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":614996468,"gmtCreate":1653313734054,"gmtModify":1653315102718,"author":{"id":"3568272018922737","authorId":"3568272018922737","name":"烙饼不翻个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bf0ec929f35272a8b334fa3f29040a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>随便拉我十八块的本。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>随便拉我十八块的本。","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$随便拉我十八块的本。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614996468","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":614903998,"gmtCreate":1653310199214,"gmtModify":1653310199214,"author":{"id":"3568272018922737","authorId":"3568272018922737","name":"烙饼不翻个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bf0ec929f35272a8b334fa3f29040a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"然后呢？后续怎么处理呢。","listText":"然后呢？后续怎么处理呢。","text":"然后呢？后续怎么处理呢。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614903998","repostId":"1129159429","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129159429","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653309655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129159429?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-23 20:40","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"滴滴确认将从美国退市！盘前股价巨震","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129159429","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月23日，滴滴今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2c062b7fc0a9623a8268e61e51a67b\" tg-width=\"1805\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e6745f05a0bbf67daedcbcdbcf4997\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>滴滴确认将从美国退市！盘前股价巨震</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n滴滴确认将从美国退市！盘前股价巨震\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-23 20:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2c062b7fc0a9623a8268e61e51a67b\" tg-width=\"1805\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e6745f05a0bbf67daedcbcdbcf4997\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129159429","content_text":"5月23日，滴滴今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638945528,"gmtCreate":1645063556397,"gmtModify":1645063556397,"author":{"id":"3568272018922737","authorId":"3568272018922737","name":"烙饼不翻个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bf0ec929f35272a8b334fa3f29040a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>退市的进度怎么样了？还有回港上市的消息？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>退市的进度怎么样了？还有回港上市的消息？","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$退市的进度怎么样了？还有回港上市的消息？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638945528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698058441,"gmtCreate":1640267773135,"gmtModify":1640267773135,"author":{"id":"3568272018922737","authorId":"3568272018922737","name":"烙饼不翻个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bf0ec929f35272a8b334fa3f29040a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>当初那么看好你，可是…….","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>当初那么看好你，可是…….","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$当初那么看好你，可是…….","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698058441","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609270348,"gmtCreate":1638288750805,"gmtModify":1638289630805,"author":{"id":"3568272018922737","authorId":"3568272018922737","name":"烙饼不翻个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bf0ec929f35272a8b334fa3f29040a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"炸毁美联储活捉鲍威尔","listText":"炸毁美联储活捉鲍威尔","text":"炸毁美联储活捉鲍威尔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609270348","repostId":"1134305042","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134305042","pubTimestamp":1638286550,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134305042?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 23:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"鲍威尔：关于通胀，该放弃“暂时”这个词了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134305042","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国三大股指跌超1%，银行板块跌1.5%。鲍威尔称，可以考虑提前几个月结束Taper。11月30日周二，美联储主席鲍威尔与美国财长耶伦一同出席美国国会参议院银行委员会的季度听证，就顽固高通胀、奥密克戎新变种病毒对经济的影响、美国债务上限等关键议题发表观点，两人明日还将参加国会众议院金融服务委员会的听证。在问答环节，鲍威尔表示，通胀进一步上升的风险增加，物价上涨与新冠疫情造成的供应链中断有关。","content":"<blockquote>\n 在问答环节，鲍威尔表示，通胀进一步上升的风险增加，物价上涨与新冠疫情造成的供应链中断有关。他还称，“是时候放弃关于通胀“暂时性”这个词了”，这句话一度令美股跌幅扩大，但他解释道，“暂时性”对每个人的意义不同，对于他来说意味着不会在价格上留下永久印记。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 美国三大股指跌超1%，银行板块跌1.5%。鲍威尔称，可以考虑提前几个月结束Taper（减码QE）。\n</blockquote>\n<p>11月30日周二，美联储主席鲍威尔与美国财长耶伦一同出席美国国会参议院银行委员会的季度听证，就顽固高通胀、奥密克戎新变种病毒对经济的影响、美国债务上限等关键议题发表观点，两人明日还将参加国会众议院金融服务委员会的听证。</p>\n<p>在问答环节，鲍威尔表示，通胀进一步上升的风险增加，物价上涨与新冠疫情造成的供应链中断有关。</p>\n<p>他还称，“是时候放弃关于通胀“暂时性”这个词了”，这句话一度令美股跌幅扩大，但他解释道，“暂时性”对每个人的意义不同，对于他来说意味着不会在价格上留下永久印记，美股跌幅又短线小幅收窄。</p>\n<p>在听证会初期，美国30年期国债收益率跌破1.8%。彭博美元指数跌0.7%，创11月19日以来新低。现货黄金日内涨幅达1.0%，报1803.07美元/盎司。美国11月谘商会消费者信心指数降至109.5，创最近九个月新低，受到通胀加速上行和新冠病例增加的冲击。</p>\n<p>在隔夜发布的书面证词中，鲍威尔首次公开提及新病毒变种，称会增加经济下行风险和通胀不确定性，人们外出工作的意愿或进一步降低，这将减缓劳动力市场的进展，并加剧供应链混乱。</p>\n<p>他还对通货膨胀发表了更直接的评论，即预测供应限制的持续性和影响具有挑战性，但现在看来，“推动通胀上升的因素将持续到明年”。不过，他仍强调随着供需失衡的缓解，包括美联储在内的大多数预测者都持续预期通胀将在明年“大幅下降”，劳动力闲置现象也在减少。</p>\n<p>在肯定美国经济继续走强、劳动力市场持续改善的基础上，鲍威尔承诺，美联储“致力于实现价格稳定目标”，将利用工具来支持经济和劳动力市场，并“防止更高的通胀变得根深蒂固”。</p>\n<p>他还承认，在与加息门槛有关的“实现就业和劳动力市场参与率这两项指标最大化方面”，仍有不小的进步空间，尽管新病毒变种压境，“美联储预计上述的最大化进程将继续取得进展”。</p>\n<p>分析认为，<b>奥密克戎新变种病毒出现在美国通胀数月高出美联储官方目标两倍多的时点，将为央行货币政策收紧路径再添变数</b>。</p>\n<p>原本官员们将在12月14日至15日的FOMC会议上讨论是否加速缩减购债，这样可以尽早结束QE量宽净购债的“放水”政策，为明年上半年就提前加息留出空间。高盛曾认为，taper加速“存在重大风险”，富国银行随后称，新变种病毒可能令12月会议上加速taper的计划复杂化。</p>\n<p>瑞银在最新研报中指出，新变异毒株突然来袭，供应链问题推动通胀上升的因素将持续存在，通胀上行风险加剧，或从“暂时性”转变为“长期性”：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 新一轮病毒扩散将对经济复苏产生损害，最初的经济、就业人数增长可能会下降，并且供应链问题将加剧，通胀压力也会比此前预期加大。 \n <b>美联储最初的反应将偏鸽派，随着通胀上升，在经济进一步复苏时，可能会加息。</b>\n</blockquote>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鲍威尔：关于通胀，该放弃“暂时”这个词了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔：关于通胀，该放弃“暂时”这个词了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-30 23:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3646201><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在问答环节，鲍威尔表示，通胀进一步上升的风险增加，物价上涨与新冠疫情造成的供应链中断有关。他还称，“是时候放弃关于通胀“暂时性”这个词了”，这句话一度令美股跌幅扩大，但他解释道，“暂时性”对每个人的意义不同，对于他来说意味着不会在价格上留下永久印记。\n\n\n 美国三大股指跌超1%，银行板块跌1.5%。鲍威尔称，可以考虑提前几个月结束Taper（减码QE）。\n\n11月30日周二，美联储主席鲍威尔与美国...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3646201\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3646201","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1134305042","content_text":"在问答环节，鲍威尔表示，通胀进一步上升的风险增加，物价上涨与新冠疫情造成的供应链中断有关。他还称，“是时候放弃关于通胀“暂时性”这个词了”，这句话一度令美股跌幅扩大，但他解释道，“暂时性”对每个人的意义不同，对于他来说意味着不会在价格上留下永久印记。\n\n\n 美国三大股指跌超1%，银行板块跌1.5%。鲍威尔称，可以考虑提前几个月结束Taper（减码QE）。\n\n11月30日周二，美联储主席鲍威尔与美国财长耶伦一同出席美国国会参议院银行委员会的季度听证，就顽固高通胀、奥密克戎新变种病毒对经济的影响、美国债务上限等关键议题发表观点，两人明日还将参加国会众议院金融服务委员会的听证。\n在问答环节，鲍威尔表示，通胀进一步上升的风险增加，物价上涨与新冠疫情造成的供应链中断有关。\n他还称，“是时候放弃关于通胀“暂时性”这个词了”，这句话一度令美股跌幅扩大，但他解释道，“暂时性”对每个人的意义不同，对于他来说意味着不会在价格上留下永久印记，美股跌幅又短线小幅收窄。\n在听证会初期，美国30年期国债收益率跌破1.8%。彭博美元指数跌0.7%，创11月19日以来新低。现货黄金日内涨幅达1.0%，报1803.07美元/盎司。美国11月谘商会消费者信心指数降至109.5，创最近九个月新低，受到通胀加速上行和新冠病例增加的冲击。\n在隔夜发布的书面证词中，鲍威尔首次公开提及新病毒变种，称会增加经济下行风险和通胀不确定性，人们外出工作的意愿或进一步降低，这将减缓劳动力市场的进展，并加剧供应链混乱。\n他还对通货膨胀发表了更直接的评论，即预测供应限制的持续性和影响具有挑战性，但现在看来，“推动通胀上升的因素将持续到明年”。不过，他仍强调随着供需失衡的缓解，包括美联储在内的大多数预测者都持续预期通胀将在明年“大幅下降”，劳动力闲置现象也在减少。\n在肯定美国经济继续走强、劳动力市场持续改善的基础上，鲍威尔承诺，美联储“致力于实现价格稳定目标”，将利用工具来支持经济和劳动力市场，并“防止更高的通胀变得根深蒂固”。\n他还承认，在与加息门槛有关的“实现就业和劳动力市场参与率这两项指标最大化方面”，仍有不小的进步空间，尽管新病毒变种压境，“美联储预计上述的最大化进程将继续取得进展”。\n分析认为，奥密克戎新变种病毒出现在美国通胀数月高出美联储官方目标两倍多的时点，将为央行货币政策收紧路径再添变数。\n原本官员们将在12月14日至15日的FOMC会议上讨论是否加速缩减购债，这样可以尽早结束QE量宽净购债的“放水”政策，为明年上半年就提前加息留出空间。高盛曾认为，taper加速“存在重大风险”，富国银行随后称，新变种病毒可能令12月会议上加速taper的计划复杂化。\n瑞银在最新研报中指出，新变异毒株突然来袭，供应链问题推动通胀上升的因素将持续存在，通胀上行风险加剧，或从“暂时性”转变为“长期性”：\n\n 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>老虎搞活动送蔚来期权？","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$老虎搞活动送蔚来期权？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116754639","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638945528,"gmtCreate":1645063556397,"gmtModify":1645063556397,"author":{"id":"3568272018922737","authorId":"3568272018922737","name":"烙饼不翻个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bf0ec929f35272a8b334fa3f29040a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>退市的进度怎么样了？还有回港上市的消息？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>退市的进度怎么样了？还有回港上市的消息？","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$退市的进度怎么样了？还有回港上市的消息？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638945528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293749887865112,"gmtCreate":1712721803908,"gmtModify":1712721805643,"author":{"id":"3568272018922737","authorId":"3568272018922737","name":"烙饼不翻个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bf0ec929f35272a8b334fa3f29040a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293749887865112","repostId":"1181153204","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181153204","pubTimestamp":1712630700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181153204?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-09 10:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Destiny Tech100 Inc. Soars 1100% In Just Days, So Here's A Closer Look At It","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181153204","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"No. And this is not meme stock. In fact, it is not even a stock. It is a closed-end fund, the Destiny Tech100 Inc. . Closed-end funds are not supposed to skyrocket like stock IPOs, even if their top holding is Elon Musk's SpaceX.When I first started to dive into this \"unidentified financial object\" I saw it referred to as an ETF on one of my charting systems, and as a stock on another source. That source did not have a spot for the fund's holdings to be listed, just a place where financial state","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1072425380\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A new closed-end fund, DXYZ, has experienced significant price volatility, reaching a peak of $105 per share before closing around $99.</p></li><li><p>DXYZ is not a stock or an ETF, but a closed-end fund that holds a portfolio of 100 private companies, with SpaceX being its largest holding.</p></li><li><p>The fund offers potential for high returns, but also carries significant risk, and investors should approach it with caution and consider its role in their portfolio.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55232d7952a7b90164577c36d3b24c7c\" alt=\"John M Lund Photography Inc\" title=\"John M Lund Photography Inc\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"572\"/><span>John M Lund Photography Inc</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Stop me if you&#39;ve heard this one before: a new closed-end fund debuts at $8.25 a share, and during its nine days of life as a listed security, peaks at $105. And just this Monday, trades in a 62% range, closing approached the top of that range, at around $100. Did Nvidia (NVDA) and GameStop (GME) have a baby? No. And this is not meme stock. In fact, it is not even a stock. It is a closed-end fund, the Destiny Tech100 Inc. (NYSE:DXYZ). Closed-end funds are not supposed to skyrocket like stock IPOs, even if their top holding is Elon Musk&#39;s SpaceX.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">When I first started to dive into this &#34;unidentified financial object&#34; I saw it referred to as an ETF on one of my charting systems, and as a stock on another source. That source did not have a spot for the fund&#39;s holdings to be listed, just a place where financial statements would go. For a stock! So, since the investment industry has not yet figured out what this is, I will sort out the ABCs of DXYZ. As for how to rate it, my true rating is &#34;check it out for yourself and tread lightly if you do decide to buy it.&#34; Because while I will probably buy a few shares, that&#39;s more to track it in my &#34;spec&#34; account, which is short for speculative.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As I explain below, this is a unique way to allow &#34;regular folks&#34; like me to invest in a basket of 100 potentially big winners which are currently private companies. At worst, it could end up being only as good as investing in the private equity business. Historically, that means early entrants get the best returns, and by the time &#34;anyone&#34; can get in, the cycle is over. That leads to the masses ending up feeling like the ones holding the bag of money when the police show up in one of those classic crime movies.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Still, my approach to investing is that ANY investment has potential to increase in price for any reason. The difference between a hypothetical security &#34;ABC&#34; and the very real DXYZ is how much risk of major loss is attached. That is a function of 2 things: what price movement occurs when DXYZ is owned, and more importantly, how much of a portfolio&#39;s total assets DXYZ makes up. For me, I am going to buy something along the lines of a small fraction of 1%, just to watch it. So when I take the fact that I&#39;ll own it, combined with the very puny size of my initial position, converting that rating into Seeking Alpha terms gets me to a Hold on DXYZ. Now, let&#39;s explore what this is and why I landed where I did. And yes, that was a SpaceX pun.</p><h2 id=\"id_2703725677\" style=\"text-align: left;\">What is DXYZ?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">DXYZ is a closed-end fund that holds, which means it trades on the stock exchange, but represents a portfolio or basket of securities, not a company. So it is a fund, but different from a traditional &#34;open-end&#34; mutual fund or an ETF. That difference comes from the fact that a closed end fund has a fixed number of shares, and so the basic concept of supply and demand is a big factor. The underlying value of the securities in DXYZ&#39;s portfolio, those 100 private companies, is not &#34;marked to market&#34; each day. So how is their value determined? By whatever price buyers and sellers in the market determine it to be. Just as with a single stock.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">DXYZ has 10.88 million shares outstanding, so its market cap as of last Friday stood at $644 million. That puts it near the top quartile in assets under management of the 418 closed-end funds on US markets.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The fund aims to get to the 100 company mark, though it currently has about 1/4 of that number. These are pre-IPO companies, and for what it&#39;s worth Destiny&#39;s website claims that &#34;for many companies in the pre-IPO stage, there is a real opportunity to achieve a 10x-50x return.&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_1468495728\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Holdings: the &#34;who&#39;s who&#34; of private companies, in one ticker</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I don&#39;t know what will become of this list of private businesses, but the access that DXYZ&#39;s managers have to own a piece of them is impressive to me. SpaceX is more than 1/3 of the fund so far, but I suspect as the portfolio fills out, that may dip. Even if it doesn&#39;t there are many chances to win here.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6efb72f2a0e16d98cee1732b11352f97\" alt=\"destiny.xyz\" title=\"destiny.xyz\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"953\"/><span>destiny.xyz</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This link to DXYZ&#39;s website does a nice job of detailing the process they use to construct the fund, and this is well above the level of description offered by many closed-end funds and ETFs. That&#39;s a big plus to me.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">And, this link to DXYZ&#39;s 12/31/2023 filing provides some helpful additional information. It was issued back before it was a listed security. Note that the fund lost 7.3% in 2023, 50% below the return of the Nasdaq Composite. And the fund was down 23% from its 5/12/2022 inception through the end of last year, versus a nearly 20% gain for the Nasdaq. I see this as a positive, given the cyclicality of private equity discussed below.</p><h2 id=\"id_1453002603\" style=\"text-align: left;\">What is the reward potential of DXYZ?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI is more than just a buzzword now. It is our future, we just don&#39;t know the path it will take. There will be winners, big winners and also losers. Perhaps the most attractive feature of DXYZ is the nature of private equity investing itself. Whereas traditional equity investing is focused on diversification to spread risk, I have always thought of private equity differently. Here, you go in knowing that risk is extremely high, but if you spread that over 100 companies, it might only take a handful making it big to more than offset whatever failures occur in the rest of the group.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Frankly, the Nasdaq 100 has performed a lot more like private equity over the past six months than a standard, evenly-distributed pattern of stock market winners and losers. Here is a snapshot from those past 6 months. Note that the big winners in green all contributed a dominant amount in dollars per share (in the QQQ ETF) as shown above, and in percentage &#34;attribution&#34; in the bottom table, not only the past half year but for the past year as well.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c1bed6c4e6aed2a33e6f31615a308b8e\" alt=\"YCharts\" title=\"YCharts\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\"/><span>YCharts</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Nasdaq 100 Index is up 23% the past 6 months, but more than half of that (13%) came from just 8 of the 100 stocks. This &#34;feast or famine&#34; set of results is likely more common and more pronounced going forward in private equity, and thus positions DXYZ for me as either an enticing small position, or a truly &#34;token&#34; position, which is even smaller, just enough to have it appear on my holdings screen.</p><h2 id=\"id_2466327410\" style=\"text-align: left;\">What are the key risk factors in owning DXYZ?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While DXYZ represents the next step in the democratization of investing, where any investor can try to profit from the future gains of private businesses, the biggest risk I see is not with the fund itself. It is with how investors use it. In the same way that meme stock investors refused to sell after making life-changing gains, I am always wary of seeing investors extrapolate past gains forward. That said, here&#39;s some history, albeit with the disclaimer that private equity and venture capital are diverse beasts, and indexing that market is not precise as it is with the S&amp;P 500, as I compare it to here.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The S&amp;P 500 has had a nice run for the past 10 years or so. Same for private equity.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5614192e118a907c34dce3c590f274fd\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>However, when we look at rolling returns, as I always do, to find the return path, rather than just a snapshot, we see the past non-correlation of the 2. These are annualized 5-year total returns. So yes, your eyes do not deceive you. The private equity index has seen gains of roughly 100% a year for 5 years, and also seen losses of 60% per year for 5 years. All of that just in the past 10 years!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b9a0c6e2407273fe1a3d31c88f5dc49\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">There is a cycle here, and I am not surprised to see private equity near the top of the cycle. This is also exactly when I&#39;d expect a fund like DXYZ to debut: when they can ride the wave of greed and FOMO around an asset class. This is why for my own money, I insist on prioritizing position size in most assets over what I actually own. That may sound strange to some, but simply put, a 10%-20% position in anything is likely to provide more reward and risk than a 1%-2% position in anything, except T-bills.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Looking forward, Northern Trust projects an annualized long-term return of 9.6% in private equity, versus 6.3% for global stocks. My only reaction is that private equity will typically have a higher return than common stocks. The question is whether there is a plus sign or minus sign in front of that return.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b75a559ec6fc135ea15c082c2c410a35\" alt=\"northerntrust.com\" title=\"northerntrust.com\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"407\"/><span>northerntrust.com</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad78df1de3513397ec72dd0ed5304d3f\" alt=\"northerntrust.com\" title=\"northerntrust.com\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\"/><span>northerntrust.com</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">There is also a big expense ratio here, 2.5%, well above most funds, though not out of line for a closed-end fund. My take on expense ratio: wholly overrated by investors, especially my peers in the profession. If one is buying an S&amp;P 500 index fund to hold for 20 years, surely expense ratio is a critical factor.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">But that&#39;s a commoditized investment. This is a unique investment, and you get what you pay for. McDonald&#39;s and that high end steak restaurant are not priced the same, yet some may prefer one over the other. If you pay up for something but get more return, or at least more &#34;potential&#34; return from doing so, I truly do not care too much about what I paid for it, at least up to 2-3% expense ratio. No doubt others will disagree, and they do. That&#39;s what makes a market.</p><h2 id=\"id_3158318430\" style=\"text-align: left;\">What I&#39;m doing with DXYZ</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I will start with a mere 0.5% of my own total portfolio, with an eye toward moving it up to 1%, and then as much as 5% if I can do so after netting some unrealized gains. But I&#39;m willing to lose a chunk of that 1% position, as I see potential upside beyond that small amount of risk I&#39;m taking.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">By the way, every investing decision I make involves a similar calculation, and I think this is the number one thing missing from many investors&#39; processes. That&#39;s why I keep bringing it up.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">So, DXYZ gets a buy rating from me right out of the gate. But as they say, size matters, and my position size here is going to be very low for now, as I see if this first of its kind listed security has the potential it seems to have.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Destiny Tech100 Inc. Soars 1100% In Just Days, So Here's A Closer Look At It</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDestiny Tech100 Inc. Soars 1100% In Just Days, So Here's A Closer Look At It\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-09 10:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4682523-destiny-tech100-inc-dxyz-rose-800-percent-in-just-days-a-closer-look><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA new closed-end fund, DXYZ, has experienced significant price volatility, reaching a peak of $105 per share before closing around $99.DXYZ is not a stock or an ETF, but a closed-end fund that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4682523-destiny-tech100-inc-dxyz-rose-800-percent-in-just-days-a-closer-look\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4682523-destiny-tech100-inc-dxyz-rose-800-percent-in-just-days-a-closer-look","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1181153204","content_text":"SummaryA new closed-end fund, DXYZ, has experienced significant price volatility, reaching a peak of $105 per share before closing around $99.DXYZ is not a stock or an ETF, but a closed-end fund that holds a portfolio of 100 private companies, with SpaceX being its largest holding.The fund offers potential for high returns, but also carries significant risk, and investors should approach it with caution and consider its role in their portfolio.John M Lund Photography IncStop me if you've heard this one before: a new closed-end fund debuts at $8.25 a share, and during its nine days of life as a listed security, peaks at $105. And just this Monday, trades in a 62% range, closing approached the top of that range, at around $100. Did Nvidia (NVDA) and GameStop (GME) have a baby? No. And this is not meme stock. In fact, it is not even a stock. It is a closed-end fund, the Destiny Tech100 Inc. (NYSE:DXYZ). Closed-end funds are not supposed to skyrocket like stock IPOs, even if their top holding is Elon Musk's SpaceX.When I first started to dive into this \"unidentified financial object\" I saw it referred to as an ETF on one of my charting systems, and as a stock on another source. That source did not have a spot for the fund's holdings to be listed, just a place where financial statements would go. For a stock! So, since the investment industry has not yet figured out what this is, I will sort out the ABCs of DXYZ. As for how to rate it, my true rating is \"check it out for yourself and tread lightly if you do decide to buy it.\" Because while I will probably buy a few shares, that's more to track it in my \"spec\" account, which is short for speculative.As I explain below, this is a unique way to allow \"regular folks\" like me to invest in a basket of 100 potentially big winners which are currently private companies. At worst, it could end up being only as good as investing in the private equity business. Historically, that means early entrants get the best returns, and by the time \"anyone\" can get in, the cycle is over. That leads to the masses ending up feeling like the ones holding the bag of money when the police show up in one of those classic crime movies.Still, my approach to investing is that ANY investment has potential to increase in price for any reason. The difference between a hypothetical security \"ABC\" and the very real DXYZ is how much risk of major loss is attached. That is a function of 2 things: what price movement occurs when DXYZ is owned, and more importantly, how much of a portfolio's total assets DXYZ makes up. For me, I am going to buy something along the lines of a small fraction of 1%, just to watch it. So when I take the fact that I'll own it, combined with the very puny size of my initial position, converting that rating into Seeking Alpha terms gets me to a Hold on DXYZ. Now, let's explore what this is and why I landed where I did. And yes, that was a SpaceX pun.What is DXYZ?DXYZ is a closed-end fund that holds, which means it trades on the stock exchange, but represents a portfolio or basket of securities, not a company. So it is a fund, but different from a traditional \"open-end\" mutual fund or an ETF. That difference comes from the fact that a closed end fund has a fixed number of shares, and so the basic concept of supply and demand is a big factor. The underlying value of the securities in DXYZ's portfolio, those 100 private companies, is not \"marked to market\" each day. So how is their value determined? By whatever price buyers and sellers in the market determine it to be. Just as with a single stock.DXYZ has 10.88 million shares outstanding, so its market cap as of last Friday stood at $644 million. That puts it near the top quartile in assets under management of the 418 closed-end funds on US markets.The fund aims to get to the 100 company mark, though it currently has about 1/4 of that number. These are pre-IPO companies, and for what it's worth Destiny's website claims that \"for many companies in the pre-IPO stage, there is a real opportunity to achieve a 10x-50x return.\"Holdings: the \"who's who\" of private companies, in one tickerI don't know what will become of this list of private businesses, but the access that DXYZ's managers have to own a piece of them is impressive to me. SpaceX is more than 1/3 of the fund so far, but I suspect as the portfolio fills out, that may dip. Even if it doesn't there are many chances to win here.destiny.xyzThis link to DXYZ's website does a nice job of detailing the process they use to construct the fund, and this is well above the level of description offered by many closed-end funds and ETFs. That's a big plus to me.And, this link to DXYZ's 12/31/2023 filing provides some helpful additional information. It was issued back before it was a listed security. Note that the fund lost 7.3% in 2023, 50% below the return of the Nasdaq Composite. And the fund was down 23% from its 5/12/2022 inception through the end of last year, versus a nearly 20% gain for the Nasdaq. I see this as a positive, given the cyclicality of private equity discussed below.What is the reward potential of DXYZ?AI is more than just a buzzword now. It is our future, we just don't know the path it will take. There will be winners, big winners and also losers. Perhaps the most attractive feature of DXYZ is the nature of private equity investing itself. Whereas traditional equity investing is focused on diversification to spread risk, I have always thought of private equity differently. Here, you go in knowing that risk is extremely high, but if you spread that over 100 companies, it might only take a handful making it big to more than offset whatever failures occur in the rest of the group.Frankly, the Nasdaq 100 has performed a lot more like private equity over the past six months than a standard, evenly-distributed pattern of stock market winners and losers. Here is a snapshot from those past 6 months. Note that the big winners in green all contributed a dominant amount in dollars per share (in the QQQ ETF) as shown above, and in percentage \"attribution\" in the bottom table, not only the past half year but for the past year as well.YChartsThe Nasdaq 100 Index is up 23% the past 6 months, but more than half of that (13%) came from just 8 of the 100 stocks. This \"feast or famine\" set of results is likely more common and more pronounced going forward in private equity, and thus positions DXYZ for me as either an enticing small position, or a truly \"token\" position, which is even smaller, just enough to have it appear on my holdings screen.What are the key risk factors in owning DXYZ?While DXYZ represents the next step in the democratization of investing, where any investor can try to profit from the future gains of private businesses, the biggest risk I see is not with the fund itself. It is with how investors use it. In the same way that meme stock investors refused to sell after making life-changing gains, I am always wary of seeing investors extrapolate past gains forward. That said, here's some history, albeit with the disclaimer that private equity and venture capital are diverse beasts, and indexing that market is not precise as it is with the S&P 500, as I compare it to here.The S&P 500 has had a nice run for the past 10 years or so. Same for private equity.Data by YChartsHowever, when we look at rolling returns, as I always do, to find the return path, rather than just a snapshot, we see the past non-correlation of the 2. These are annualized 5-year total returns. So yes, your eyes do not deceive you. The private equity index has seen gains of roughly 100% a year for 5 years, and also seen losses of 60% per year for 5 years. All of that just in the past 10 years!Data by YChartsThere is a cycle here, and I am not surprised to see private equity near the top of the cycle. This is also exactly when I'd expect a fund like DXYZ to debut: when they can ride the wave of greed and FOMO around an asset class. This is why for my own money, I insist on prioritizing position size in most assets over what I actually own. That may sound strange to some, but simply put, a 10%-20% position in anything is likely to provide more reward and risk than a 1%-2% position in anything, except T-bills.Looking forward, Northern Trust projects an annualized long-term return of 9.6% in private equity, versus 6.3% for global stocks. My only reaction is that private equity will typically have a higher return than common stocks. The question is whether there is a plus sign or minus sign in front of that return.northerntrust.comnortherntrust.comThere is also a big expense ratio here, 2.5%, well above most funds, though not out of line for a closed-end fund. My take on expense ratio: wholly overrated by investors, especially my peers in the profession. If one is buying an S&P 500 index fund to hold for 20 years, surely expense ratio is a critical factor.But that's a commoditized investment. This is a unique investment, and you get what you pay for. McDonald's and that high end steak restaurant are not priced the same, yet some may prefer one over the other. If you pay up for something but get more return, or at least more \"potential\" return from doing so, I truly do not care too much about what I paid for it, at least up to 2-3% expense ratio. No doubt others will disagree, and they do. That's what makes a market.What I'm doing with DXYZI will start with a mere 0.5% of my own total portfolio, with an eye toward moving it up to 1%, and then as much as 5% if I can do so after netting some unrealized gains. But I'm willing to lose a chunk of that 1% position, as I see potential upside beyond that small amount of risk I'm taking.By the way, every investing decision I make involves a similar calculation, and I think this is the number one thing missing from many investors' processes. That's why I keep bringing it up.So, DXYZ gets a buy rating from me right out of the gate. But as they say, size matters, and my position size here is going to be very low for now, as I see if this first of its kind listed security has the potential it seems to have.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":656561746,"gmtCreate":1683809908485,"gmtModify":1683809909548,"author":{"id":"3568272018922737","authorId":"3568272018922737","name":"烙饼不翻个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bf0ec929f35272a8b334fa3f29040a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a>广告太多。每个股下边的评论清一色的广告……","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a>广告太多。每个股下边的评论清一色的广告……","text":"$谷歌(GOOG)$ 广告太多。每个股下边的评论清一色的广告……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656561746","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":156658450,"gmtCreate":1625220465870,"gmtModify":1625220465870,"author":{"id":"3568272018922737","authorId":"3568272018922737","name":"烙饼不翻个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bf0ec929f35272a8b334fa3f29040a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> 感觉是一部分人吃饱了先撤了的节奏啊","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> 感觉是一部分人吃饱了先撤了的节奏啊","text":"$AMD(AMD)$ 感觉是一部分人吃饱了先撤了的节奏啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156658450","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354411413,"gmtCreate":1617195967232,"gmtModify":1617195967232,"author":{"id":"3568272018922737","authorId":"3568272018922737","name":"烙饼不翻个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bf0ec929f35272a8b334fa3f29040a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 持仓数你跌的惨","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 持仓数你跌的惨","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 持仓数你跌的惨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354411413","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358350107,"gmtCreate":1616665218209,"gmtModify":1616665218209,"author":{"id":"3568272018922737","authorId":"3568272018922737","name":"烙饼不翻个","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bf0ec929f35272a8b334fa3f29040a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>怎一个惨字啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>怎一个惨字啊","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$怎一个惨字啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358350107","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}