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Jerrywong76

Jerrywong76

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2021-05-24

$Alibaba(09988)$Everyone says this is undervalued. How many of you are holding on to this?

2021-06-24

The author has shorted amc so that is why he has written so many negative articles. I just hope that he is not selling naked calls, otherwise he will be in serious trouble.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

Everyday there is a please sell your stock and run away news article. We know the danger. The danger we are bringing to all the short sellers in the market.

AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>

2021-06-13

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Selling puts. Either profit immediately or get the opportunity to buy at a lower price.

2021-06-17

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Let’s hang on my fellow apes

2021-06-17

So many articles getting people to divert away from amc.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-15

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Where lambo?

2021-08-30

When you read articles like this, you know it is from the motley fool.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-16

$PLTR 20210716 24.5 PUT(PLTR)$Is there another animation after “game over”?

2021-05-20

$Butterfly Network Inc(BFLY)$Am I a bag holder?

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,"htmlText":"When you read articles like this, you know it is from the motley fool.","listText":"When you read articles like this, you know it is from the motley fool.","text":"When you read articles like this, you know it is from the motley fool.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811439172","repostId":"2163588460","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899657113,"gmtCreate":1628181411332,"gmtModify":1631886975292,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a>Seems like a classic pump and dump to catch retail investors.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a>Seems like a classic pump and dump to catch retail investors.&nbsp;","text":"$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$Seems like a classic pump and dump to catch retail investors.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899657113","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170471486,"gmtCreate":1626448393145,"gmtModify":1631890035170,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$PLTR 20210716 24.5 PUT(PLTR)$</a>Is there another animation after “game over”?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$PLTR 20210716 24.5 PUT(PLTR)$</a>Is there another animation after “game over”?","text":"$PLTR 20210716 24.5 PUT(PLTR)$Is there another animation after “game over”?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/092481d525d18e5da8826519bb073570","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170471486","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152050313,"gmtCreate":1625243755532,"gmtModify":1631883984730,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Smart money versus dumb money. But dumbmoney was also the one who took out a London based hedge fund. Short it all you&nbsp;like but getting in the way of dumb money might not be the smartest decision you can make.&nbsp;","listText":"Smart money versus dumb money. But dumbmoney was also the one who took out a London based hedge fund. Short it all you&nbsp;like but getting in the way of dumb money might not be the smartest decision you can make.&nbsp;","text":"Smart money versus dumb money. But dumbmoney was also the one who took out a London based hedge fund. Short it all you like but getting in the way of dumb money might not be the smartest decision you can make.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152050313","repostId":"1121860286","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1121860286","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625212613,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121860286?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: 'Record' Weekend Is Terrible News For The Stock<blockquote>AMC：“创纪录”的周末对该股来说是个坏消息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121860286","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAttendance of 2 million is terrible for AMC.\nThe company needs to more than double attendan","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Attendance of 2 million is terrible for AMC.</li>  <li>The company needs to more&nbsp;than double attendance to return to 2019 - when it still lost money.</li>  <li>Someday shares will fall 90% from this point.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798af80ddf8412e6beabc5bf60891141\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RichLegg/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>200万的上座率对于AMC来说是可怕的。</li><li>该公司需要将出勤率增加一倍以上才能回到2019年——当时它仍然亏损。</li><li>总有一天，股价将从这一点下跌90%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RichLegg/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I'm pretty bad at predicting what makes AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)go up or down in the short term. After all, I said to short it at $26/share (Short Squeeze Presents Many Ways to Make Money) and then explained why there was no fundamental news behind the run up at $58/share (Recent Events are Just Re-Runs). But I'm pretty good at reading press releases, news articles and financial statements, and it's clear from recent news just how big a hole AMC has to climb out of on an operating basis.</p><p><blockquote>我不太擅长预测AMC院线（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）短期内上涨或下跌的原因。毕竟，我说在26美元/股做空（轧空提供了许多赚钱的方法），然后解释了为什么在58美元/股的上涨背后没有基本面消息（最近的事件只是重新运行）。但我很擅长阅读新闻稿、新闻文章和财务报表，从最近的新闻中可以清楚地看出，AMC在运营基础上必须爬出多大的漏洞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Attendance at theaters is terrible and AMC will continue to lose money</b></p><p><blockquote><b>影院上座率惨淡AMC将继续亏损</b></blockquote></p><p> On Monday, AMC put out a&nbsp;press release&nbsp;touting its \"post-reopening record\" of 2 million attendees and highlighting the biggest box office draw \"Fast and the Furious 9\" which grossed $70 million:</p><p><blockquote>周一，AMC发布了一份新闻稿，宣传其200万观众的“重新开放后记录”，并强调了票房最高的《速度与激情9》，票房收入为7000万美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c54d7e40d29666bf8b78f554f233e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"83\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9f8c597b1ba417c6b478358caa9cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"62\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Businesswire</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Businesswire</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For reasons that should be clear to all,these numbers are terrible. As you can see from the company's earnings release showing results for 2018 and 2019:</p><p><blockquote>出于所有人都应该清楚的原因，这些数字是可怕的。从该公司2018年和2019年业绩的财报中可以看出：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b604e216de76939782f86a868e40889d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\"><span>Source: AMC Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMC院线</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pace for attendance in 2019 was 250 million in the US, or 4.8 million customers per week and in 2018 it was 4.9 million customers. So it's very nice to learn that 2 million customers is the largest number of people to see a movie at AMC since COVID-19 led to lockdowns, but the real numbers mean show attendance is down almost 60% from 2018 and 2019.</p><p><blockquote>2019年美国的出席率为2.5亿，即每周480万客户，2018年为490万客户。因此，很高兴得知200万顾客是自新冠肺炎导致封锁以来在AMC看电影的人数最多的一次，但实际数字意味着放映上座率比2018年和2019年下降了近60%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see above, 2018 and 2019 were not great years for the company, either. AMC lost $149 million in the second of two years and made $110 million in the first one. At the end of 2019, the stock price of a money-losing AMC was just over $7/share. Bullish shareholders (\"Apes\" as they style themselves) are excited about the move of more than 700% to this week's price of over $55/share:</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，2018年和2019年对该公司来说也不是很好的年份。AMC在两年的第二年亏损1.49亿美元，第一年盈利1.1亿美元。2019年底，一家亏损的AMC股价刚刚超过7美元/股。看涨的股东（他们自称为“猿”）对本周超过55美元/股的价格上涨超过700%感到兴奋：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce4607284db107f9758f4735a99ccd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But what many of them don't seem to be paying attention to is the market capitalization. As you can see in the chart above, increasing the share count from 100 million to almost 480 million shares outstanding in the last year has pushed the market cap far higher leading to an increase of almost 3,900%.</p><p><blockquote>但他们中的许多人似乎没有注意到的是市值。如上图所示，去年流通股数量从1亿股增加到近4.8亿股，推动市值大幅上涨，涨幅近3,900%。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of securities analysis is not \"optional\" and shareholders are now paying almost 40 times as much to own this company as they did at the end of the last full year before COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>这种证券分析不是“可选的”，股东现在为拥有这家公司支付的费用几乎是COVID-19之前最后一个全年年底的40倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not all MemeStocks are created Equal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有模因股票都是平等的</b></blockquote></p><p> The first \"memestock\" to capture everyone's attention this year was GameStop (GME). After a number of years of declining sales, a new class of investors such as&nbsp;Chewy founder Ryan&nbsp;took interest in the company and eventually took over the board of directors. At the same time this change in leadership was underway, a number of hedge funds who had been short the stock&nbsp;began losing money&nbsp;at an alarming clip.</p><p><blockquote>今年第一个引起大家注意的“模因股”是游戏驿站（GME）。经过多年的销售额下降后，Chewy创始人Ryan等新一代投资者对该公司产生了兴趣，并最终接管了董事会。在领导层变动的同时，一些做空该股的对冲基金开始以惊人的速度亏损。</blockquote></p><p> In the popular imagination, the rise in GameStop shares was a&nbsp;win for retail investors&nbsp;sharing information on Reddit such as the now-famous \"Roaring Kitty,\" but the evidence is the biggest winners were in fact other hedge funds (see \"This Hedge Fund Made $700 million on GameStop\"). Since Cohen took over the company, he is shifting its business model to online sales and hiring executives from leading companies such as&nbsp;Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).</p><p><blockquote>在大众的想象中，游戏驿站股价的上涨是在Reddit上分享信息的散户投资者的胜利，例如现在著名的“咆哮的小猫”，但证据是最大的赢家实际上是其他对冲基金（见“这家对冲基金在游戏驿站赚了7亿美元”）。自从科恩接管该公司以来，他正在将其商业模式转向在线销售，并从亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）等领先公司聘请高管。</blockquote></p><p> None of the kinds of positive things that are happening at GameStop are even close to being talked about at AMC. AMC has had thesame CEO since 2015. There is no change in business model, and now that he has cash from equity sales, thebest ideahe's come up with is just buying more movie theaters! Meanwhile, many of the most successful companies on the planet such as Disney(NYSE:DIS), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Amazon are all developing streaming services to entertain customers at home - which keeps them from going to the movies.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站发生的任何积极的事情都没有在AMC上被谈论过。自2015年以来，AMC一直担任同一位首席执行官。商业模式没有改变，现在他从股权出售中获得了现金，他想出的最好的主意就是购买更多的电影院！与此同时，地球上许多最成功的公司，例如Disney（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）、Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）和Amazon都在开发流媒体服务来娱乐在家的客户，这使得他们无法去看电影。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Likewise, the entire growth of the online gaming industry with services such as Twitch from Amazon and Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)with Xbox is another substantial competitor getting in the way of customers going to the movies. All this is to say that the future is not getting brighter for AMC.</p><p><blockquote>同样，在线游戏行业的整体增长（例如Amazon的Twitch和微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）的Xbox）是另一个阻碍客户看电影的重要竞争对手。这一切都表明，AMC的未来并没有变得更加光明。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Maybe AMC's share price will double next week. Maybe it will get cut in half. I don't know and neither does anyone else. But one month, one quarter or one year from now, shareholders will own a money-losing company in a fading industry at an extremely high valuation.</p><p><blockquote>也许下周AMC的股价会翻倍。也许它会被切成两半。我不知道，其他人也不知道。但从现在起一个月、一个季度或一年后，股东们将以极高的估值拥有一家处于衰落行业的亏损公司。</blockquote></p><p> I'm short shares in this stock because one day in the not-too-distant future, those shareholders will start selling, and then once the stock goes down regularly I expect them to start selling shares rapidly. Ultimately, I expect the shares to go back to the level they were at the end of 2019 - only when that happens, they won't be $7/share anymore. They'll be closer to $2.00.</p><p><blockquote>我做空这只股票，因为在不久的将来有一天，这些股东将开始出售，然后一旦股票定期下跌，我预计他们将开始迅速出售股票。最终，我预计股价将回到2019年底的水平——只是当这种情况发生时，股价将不再是7美元/股。它们将接近2美元。</blockquote></p><p> Good luck to all!</p><p><blockquote>祝大家好运！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: 'Record' Weekend Is Terrible News For The Stock<blockquote>AMC：“创纪录”的周末对该股来说是个坏消息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: 'Record' Weekend Is Terrible News For The Stock<blockquote>AMC：“创纪录”的周末对该股来说是个坏消息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Attendance of 2 million is terrible for AMC.</li>  <li>The company needs to more&nbsp;than double attendance to return to 2019 - when it still lost money.</li>  <li>Someday shares will fall 90% from this point.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798af80ddf8412e6beabc5bf60891141\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RichLegg/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>200万的上座率对于AMC来说是可怕的。</li><li>该公司需要将出勤率增加一倍以上才能回到2019年——当时它仍然亏损。</li><li>总有一天，股价将从这一点下跌90%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RichLegg/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I'm pretty bad at predicting what makes AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)go up or down in the short term. After all, I said to short it at $26/share (Short Squeeze Presents Many Ways to Make Money) and then explained why there was no fundamental news behind the run up at $58/share (Recent Events are Just Re-Runs). But I'm pretty good at reading press releases, news articles and financial statements, and it's clear from recent news just how big a hole AMC has to climb out of on an operating basis.</p><p><blockquote>我不太擅长预测AMC院线（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）短期内上涨或下跌的原因。毕竟，我说在26美元/股做空（轧空提供了许多赚钱的方法），然后解释了为什么在58美元/股的上涨背后没有基本面消息（最近的事件只是重新运行）。但我很擅长阅读新闻稿、新闻文章和财务报表，从最近的新闻中可以清楚地看出，AMC在运营基础上必须爬出多大的漏洞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Attendance at theaters is terrible and AMC will continue to lose money</b></p><p><blockquote><b>影院上座率惨淡AMC将继续亏损</b></blockquote></p><p> On Monday, AMC put out a&nbsp;press release&nbsp;touting its \"post-reopening record\" of 2 million attendees and highlighting the biggest box office draw \"Fast and the Furious 9\" which grossed $70 million:</p><p><blockquote>周一，AMC发布了一份新闻稿，宣传其200万观众的“重新开放后记录”，并强调了票房最高的《速度与激情9》，票房收入为7000万美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c54d7e40d29666bf8b78f554f233e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"83\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9f8c597b1ba417c6b478358caa9cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"62\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Businesswire</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Businesswire</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For reasons that should be clear to all,these numbers are terrible. As you can see from the company's earnings release showing results for 2018 and 2019:</p><p><blockquote>出于所有人都应该清楚的原因，这些数字是可怕的。从该公司2018年和2019年业绩的财报中可以看出：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b604e216de76939782f86a868e40889d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\"><span>Source: AMC Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMC院线</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pace for attendance in 2019 was 250 million in the US, or 4.8 million customers per week and in 2018 it was 4.9 million customers. So it's very nice to learn that 2 million customers is the largest number of people to see a movie at AMC since COVID-19 led to lockdowns, but the real numbers mean show attendance is down almost 60% from 2018 and 2019.</p><p><blockquote>2019年美国的出席率为2.5亿，即每周480万客户，2018年为490万客户。因此，很高兴得知200万顾客是自新冠肺炎导致封锁以来在AMC看电影的人数最多的一次，但实际数字意味着放映上座率比2018年和2019年下降了近60%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see above, 2018 and 2019 were not great years for the company, either. AMC lost $149 million in the second of two years and made $110 million in the first one. At the end of 2019, the stock price of a money-losing AMC was just over $7/share. Bullish shareholders (\"Apes\" as they style themselves) are excited about the move of more than 700% to this week's price of over $55/share:</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，2018年和2019年对该公司来说也不是很好的年份。AMC在两年的第二年亏损1.49亿美元，第一年盈利1.1亿美元。2019年底，一家亏损的AMC股价刚刚超过7美元/股。看涨的股东（他们自称为“猿”）对本周超过55美元/股的价格上涨超过700%感到兴奋：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce4607284db107f9758f4735a99ccd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But what many of them don't seem to be paying attention to is the market capitalization. As you can see in the chart above, increasing the share count from 100 million to almost 480 million shares outstanding in the last year has pushed the market cap far higher leading to an increase of almost 3,900%.</p><p><blockquote>但他们中的许多人似乎没有注意到的是市值。如上图所示，去年流通股数量从1亿股增加到近4.8亿股，推动市值大幅上涨，涨幅近3,900%。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of securities analysis is not \"optional\" and shareholders are now paying almost 40 times as much to own this company as they did at the end of the last full year before COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>这种证券分析不是“可选的”，股东现在为拥有这家公司支付的费用几乎是COVID-19之前最后一个全年年底的40倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not all MemeStocks are created Equal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有模因股票都是平等的</b></blockquote></p><p> The first \"memestock\" to capture everyone's attention this year was GameStop (GME). After a number of years of declining sales, a new class of investors such as&nbsp;Chewy founder Ryan&nbsp;took interest in the company and eventually took over the board of directors. At the same time this change in leadership was underway, a number of hedge funds who had been short the stock&nbsp;began losing money&nbsp;at an alarming clip.</p><p><blockquote>今年第一个引起大家注意的“模因股”是游戏驿站（GME）。经过多年的销售额下降后，Chewy创始人Ryan等新一代投资者对该公司产生了兴趣，并最终接管了董事会。在领导层变动的同时，一些做空该股的对冲基金开始以惊人的速度亏损。</blockquote></p><p> In the popular imagination, the rise in GameStop shares was a&nbsp;win for retail investors&nbsp;sharing information on Reddit such as the now-famous \"Roaring Kitty,\" but the evidence is the biggest winners were in fact other hedge funds (see \"This Hedge Fund Made $700 million on GameStop\"). Since Cohen took over the company, he is shifting its business model to online sales and hiring executives from leading companies such as&nbsp;Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).</p><p><blockquote>在大众的想象中，游戏驿站股价的上涨是在Reddit上分享信息的散户投资者的胜利，例如现在著名的“咆哮的小猫”，但证据是最大的赢家实际上是其他对冲基金（见“这家对冲基金在游戏驿站赚了7亿美元”）。自从科恩接管该公司以来，他正在将其商业模式转向在线销售，并从亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）等领先公司聘请高管。</blockquote></p><p> None of the kinds of positive things that are happening at GameStop are even close to being talked about at AMC. AMC has had thesame CEO since 2015. There is no change in business model, and now that he has cash from equity sales, thebest ideahe's come up with is just buying more movie theaters! Meanwhile, many of the most successful companies on the planet such as Disney(NYSE:DIS), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Amazon are all developing streaming services to entertain customers at home - which keeps them from going to the movies.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站发生的任何积极的事情都没有在AMC上被谈论过。自2015年以来，AMC一直担任同一位首席执行官。商业模式没有改变，现在他从股权出售中获得了现金，他想出的最好的主意就是购买更多的电影院！与此同时，地球上许多最成功的公司，例如Disney（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）、Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）和Amazon都在开发流媒体服务来娱乐在家的客户，这使得他们无法去看电影。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Likewise, the entire growth of the online gaming industry with services such as Twitch from Amazon and Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)with Xbox is another substantial competitor getting in the way of customers going to the movies. All this is to say that the future is not getting brighter for AMC.</p><p><blockquote>同样，在线游戏行业的整体增长（例如Amazon的Twitch和微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）的Xbox）是另一个阻碍客户看电影的重要竞争对手。这一切都表明，AMC的未来并没有变得更加光明。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Maybe AMC's share price will double next week. Maybe it will get cut in half. I don't know and neither does anyone else. But one month, one quarter or one year from now, shareholders will own a money-losing company in a fading industry at an extremely high valuation.</p><p><blockquote>也许下周AMC的股价会翻倍。也许它会被切成两半。我不知道，其他人也不知道。但从现在起一个月、一个季度或一年后，股东们将以极高的估值拥有一家处于衰落行业的亏损公司。</blockquote></p><p> I'm short shares in this stock because one day in the not-too-distant future, those shareholders will start selling, and then once the stock goes down regularly I expect them to start selling shares rapidly. Ultimately, I expect the shares to go back to the level they were at the end of 2019 - only when that happens, they won't be $7/share anymore. They'll be closer to $2.00.</p><p><blockquote>我做空这只股票，因为在不久的将来有一天，这些股东将开始出售，然后一旦股票定期下跌，我预计他们将开始迅速出售股票。最终，我预计股价将回到2019年底的水平——只是当这种情况发生时，股价将不再是7美元/股。它们将接近2美元。</blockquote></p><p> Good luck to all!</p><p><blockquote>祝大家好运！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437461-amc-record-weekend-is-terrible-news-for-the-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437461-amc-record-weekend-is-terrible-news-for-the-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121860286","content_text":"Summary\n\nAttendance of 2 million is terrible for AMC.\nThe company needs to more than double attendance to return to 2019 - when it still lost money.\nSomeday shares will fall 90% from this point.\n\nRichLegg/E+ via Getty Images\nI'm pretty bad at predicting what makes AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)go up or down in the short term. After all, I said to short it at $26/share (Short Squeeze Presents Many Ways to Make Money) and then explained why there was no fundamental news behind the run up at $58/share (Recent Events are Just Re-Runs). But I'm pretty good at reading press releases, news articles and financial statements, and it's clear from recent news just how big a hole AMC has to climb out of on an operating basis.\nAttendance at theaters is terrible and AMC will continue to lose money\nOn Monday, AMC put out a press release touting its \"post-reopening record\" of 2 million attendees and highlighting the biggest box office draw \"Fast and the Furious 9\" which grossed $70 million:\n\nSource: Businesswire\nFor reasons that should be clear to all,these numbers are terrible. As you can see from the company's earnings release showing results for 2018 and 2019:\nSource: AMC Entertainment\nThe pace for attendance in 2019 was 250 million in the US, or 4.8 million customers per week and in 2018 it was 4.9 million customers. So it's very nice to learn that 2 million customers is the largest number of people to see a movie at AMC since COVID-19 led to lockdowns, but the real numbers mean show attendance is down almost 60% from 2018 and 2019.\nAs you can see above, 2018 and 2019 were not great years for the company, either. AMC lost $149 million in the second of two years and made $110 million in the first one. At the end of 2019, the stock price of a money-losing AMC was just over $7/share. Bullish shareholders (\"Apes\" as they style themselves) are excited about the move of more than 700% to this week's price of over $55/share:\nSource: Koyfin\nBut what many of them don't seem to be paying attention to is the market capitalization. As you can see in the chart above, increasing the share count from 100 million to almost 480 million shares outstanding in the last year has pushed the market cap far higher leading to an increase of almost 3,900%.\nThis kind of securities analysis is not \"optional\" and shareholders are now paying almost 40 times as much to own this company as they did at the end of the last full year before COVID-19.\nNot all MemeStocks are created Equal\nThe first \"memestock\" to capture everyone's attention this year was GameStop (GME). After a number of years of declining sales, a new class of investors such as Chewy founder Ryan took interest in the company and eventually took over the board of directors. At the same time this change in leadership was underway, a number of hedge funds who had been short the stock began losing money at an alarming clip.\nIn the popular imagination, the rise in GameStop shares was a win for retail investors sharing information on Reddit such as the now-famous \"Roaring Kitty,\" but the evidence is the biggest winners were in fact other hedge funds (see \"This Hedge Fund Made $700 million on GameStop\"). Since Cohen took over the company, he is shifting its business model to online sales and hiring executives from leading companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).\nNone of the kinds of positive things that are happening at GameStop are even close to being talked about at AMC. AMC has had thesame CEO since 2015. There is no change in business model, and now that he has cash from equity sales, thebest ideahe's come up with is just buying more movie theaters! Meanwhile, many of the most successful companies on the planet such as Disney(NYSE:DIS), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Amazon are all developing streaming services to entertain customers at home - which keeps them from going to the movies.\nLikewise, the entire growth of the online gaming industry with services such as Twitch from Amazon and Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)with Xbox is another substantial competitor getting in the way of customers going to the movies. All this is to say that the future is not getting brighter for AMC.\nConclusion\nMaybe AMC's share price will double next week. Maybe it will get cut in half. I don't know and neither does anyone else. But one month, one quarter or one year from now, shareholders will own a money-losing company in a fading industry at an extremely high valuation.\nI'm short shares in this stock because one day in the not-too-distant future, those shareholders will start selling, and then once the stock goes down regularly I expect them to start selling shares rapidly. Ultimately, I expect the shares to go back to the level they were at the end of 2019 - only when that happens, they won't be $7/share anymore. They'll be closer to $2.00.\nGood luck to all!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150921575,"gmtCreate":1624883644797,"gmtModify":1631890035183,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>Finally it is heading up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>Finally it is heading up","text":"$Alibaba(09988)$Finally it is heading up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264b51a2980dea1f6a9e89dc24de38ce","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150921575","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121415736,"gmtCreate":1624489187625,"gmtModify":1631890035196,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The author has shorted amc so that is why he has written so many negative articles. I just hope that he is not selling naked calls, otherwise he will be in serious trouble.","listText":"The author has shorted amc so that is why he has written so many negative articles. I just hope that he is not selling naked calls, otherwise he will be in serious trouble.","text":"The author has shorted amc so that is why he has written so many negative articles. I just hope that he is not selling naked calls, otherwise he will be in serious trouble.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121415736","repostId":"1113795668","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129319507,"gmtCreate":1624358601109,"gmtModify":1631890035205,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The more FUD articles appear. The more theapes will continue to HODL. To the moon!","listText":"The more FUD articles appear. The more theapes will continue to HODL. To the moon!","text":"The more FUD articles appear. The more theapes will continue to HODL. To the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129319507","repostId":"1135948909","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135948909","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624321371,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135948909?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 08:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC, GameStop Slide As Jim Cramer Warns 'The Iceman Cometh' on Meme Stocks<blockquote>吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)警告模因股票“冰人来了”，AMC和游戏驿站股价下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135948909","media":"thestreet","summary":"AMC Entertainment (AMC) -Get Report shares slumped lower Monday, following a 20% gain last week that","content":"<p>AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares slumped lower Monday, following a 20% gain last week that lifted the cinema chain's value close to $30 billion, as the two most active meme stock names continue to dominate Reddit-retail trading.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线(<b>AMC</b>)-Get Report股价继上周上涨20%后，周一暴跌，该连锁影院的价值接近300亿美元，因为两个最活跃的meme股票名称继续主导Reddit零售交易。</blockquote></p><p> <i>TheStreet's</i>founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned Monday that the ability of meme-powered investors to boost stock prices could fade in the coming weeks, citing a series of failed recommendations from discussions on the r/wallstreetbets chatroom in Reddit.</p><p><blockquote><i>街道的</i>然而，创始人吉姆·克莱默（Jim Cramer）周一警告称，迷因驱动的投资者提振股价的能力可能会在未来几周内减弱，他引用了Reddit上r/wallstreetbets聊天室讨论中一系列失败的建议。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer noted that recent pullbacks in Wendy's&nbsp;(<b>WEN</b>) -Get Report, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond&nbsp;(<b>BBBY</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and Cleveland Cliffs&nbsp;(<b>CLF</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;-- all of which have benefited from either a meme-drive retail surge or an attempt to squeeze investors betting against the stock -- suggest a retrenchment of influence back to the two stocks that started this year's phenomena: AMC and GameStop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>) -Get Report.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默指出，温迪快餐店最近的回调（<b>温</b>)-获取报告，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(<b>BBBY</b>)-获取报告和克利夫兰悬崖(<b>CLF</b>）-Get报告——所有这些都受益于模因驱动的散户激增或挤压做空该股的投资者的尝试——表明引发今年现象的两只股票的影响力正在缩小：AMC和游戏驿站（<b>GME</b>)-获取报告。</blockquote></p><p> With both stocks, however, Cramer says the only real bet is that CEO Adam Aron of AMC and Chairman Ryan Cohen of GameStop can raise enough money from the sale of shares to buy a sector rival and revive their failing businesses.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cramer表示，对于这两只股票，唯一真正的赌注是AMC首席执行官Adam Aron和游戏驿站董事长Ryan Cohen能够通过出售股票筹集足够的资金来收购行业竞争对手并重振他们失败的业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMC, which unveiled plans to sell 12 million new shares earlier this month after placing a further 8.5 million shares with hedge fund Mudrick Capital is looking for approval to sell 25 million shares at some point next year in order to fund potential 'value creating' investment opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在向对冲基金Mudrick Capital再配售850万股股票后，于本月早些时候公布了出售1200万股新股的计划，目前正在寻求批准在明年某个时候出售2500万股股票，以便为潜在的“价值创造”投资机会提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop, meanwhile, said it plans to sell up to 5 million shares in an \"at-the-market\" offering, noting it will use the capital for \"general corporate purposes\" and investing in \"growth initiatives\" following a first quarter loss.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，游戏驿站表示，计划在“市场”发行中出售最多500万股股票，并指出将把这笔资金用于“一般企业用途”，并在第一季度亏损后投资于“增长计划”。</blockquote></p><p> \"Right now AMC is a $30 billion company with very little hope that it can survive unless it monetizes the meme support, which his exactly what it should do,\" Cramer said in hisReal Money Column Monday. \"&nbsp;GameStop needs a brilliant plan and while Cohen has brought in brilliant people, the issue is what is the company going to be? It can’t be what it is. No industry insider thinks that is possible.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默周一在他的Real Money专栏中表示：“目前AMC是一家市值300亿美元的公司，除非它将meme支持货币化，否则它生存的希望渺茫，而这正是它应该做的。”“游戏驿站需要一个出色的计划，虽然科恩引进了出色的人才，但问题是公司将会是什么样子？它不可能是现在的样子。没有业内人士认为这是可能的。”</blockquote></p><p> AMC shares were marked 8.5%&nbsp; lower in mid-day trading Monday to change hands at $54.30 each, a move that would take the stock's one-month gain to around 350%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价周一午盘下跌8.5%，换手至每股54.30美元，此举将使该股一个月涨幅达到350%左右。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop shares slumped 7.2% lower to $198.40 each, a gain of 12.5% from last month's levels.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价下跌7.2%，至每股198.40美元，较上月水平上涨12.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Data from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that AMC is still the most-discussed stock among users over the past 24 hours and more than 777 mentions.</p><p><blockquote>来自theyolosocks.live网站跟踪Reddit r/wallstreetbets聊天室中股票的实时提及情况，数据表明AMC仍然是过去24小时内用户讨论最多的股票，提及次数超过777次。</blockquote></p><p> Short interest in AMC shares remains elevated, however, with data from S3 Partners pegging it at 68.83 million. That represents around 13.8% of the outstanding float, or just under $4 billion in market value.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMC股票的空头兴趣仍然很高，S3 Partners的数据显示其空头兴趣为6883万股。这约占已发行流通股的13.8%，即市值略低于40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For GameStop. short interest is around 11.5 million shares, or 19.9% of the outstanding float, pegging bets against the money-losing retailer at $2.64 billion.</p><p><blockquote>为了游戏驿站。空头权益约为1150万股，占已发行流通股的19.9%，对这家亏损零售商的押注为26.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC, GameStop Slide As Jim Cramer Warns 'The Iceman Cometh' on Meme Stocks<blockquote>吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)警告模因股票“冰人来了”，AMC和游戏驿站股价下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC, GameStop Slide As Jim Cramer Warns 'The Iceman Cometh' on Meme Stocks<blockquote>吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)警告模因股票“冰人来了”，AMC和游戏驿站股价下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares slumped lower Monday, following a 20% gain last week that lifted the cinema chain's value close to $30 billion, as the two most active meme stock names continue to dominate Reddit-retail trading.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线(<b>AMC</b>)-Get Report股价继上周上涨20%后，周一暴跌，该连锁影院的价值接近300亿美元，因为两个最活跃的meme股票名称继续主导Reddit零售交易。</blockquote></p><p> <i>TheStreet's</i>founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned Monday that the ability of meme-powered investors to boost stock prices could fade in the coming weeks, citing a series of failed recommendations from discussions on the r/wallstreetbets chatroom in Reddit.</p><p><blockquote><i>街道的</i>然而，创始人吉姆·克莱默（Jim Cramer）周一警告称，迷因驱动的投资者提振股价的能力可能会在未来几周内减弱，他引用了Reddit上r/wallstreetbets聊天室讨论中一系列失败的建议。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer noted that recent pullbacks in Wendy's&nbsp;(<b>WEN</b>) -Get Report, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond&nbsp;(<b>BBBY</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and Cleveland Cliffs&nbsp;(<b>CLF</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;-- all of which have benefited from either a meme-drive retail surge or an attempt to squeeze investors betting against the stock -- suggest a retrenchment of influence back to the two stocks that started this year's phenomena: AMC and GameStop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>) -Get Report.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默指出，温迪快餐店最近的回调（<b>温</b>)-获取报告，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(<b>BBBY</b>)-获取报告和克利夫兰悬崖(<b>CLF</b>）-Get报告——所有这些都受益于模因驱动的散户激增或挤压做空该股的投资者的尝试——表明引发今年现象的两只股票的影响力正在缩小：AMC和游戏驿站（<b>GME</b>)-获取报告。</blockquote></p><p> With both stocks, however, Cramer says the only real bet is that CEO Adam Aron of AMC and Chairman Ryan Cohen of GameStop can raise enough money from the sale of shares to buy a sector rival and revive their failing businesses.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cramer表示，对于这两只股票，唯一真正的赌注是AMC首席执行官Adam Aron和游戏驿站董事长Ryan Cohen能够通过出售股票筹集足够的资金来收购行业竞争对手并重振他们失败的业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMC, which unveiled plans to sell 12 million new shares earlier this month after placing a further 8.5 million shares with hedge fund Mudrick Capital is looking for approval to sell 25 million shares at some point next year in order to fund potential 'value creating' investment opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在向对冲基金Mudrick Capital再配售850万股股票后，于本月早些时候公布了出售1200万股新股的计划，目前正在寻求批准在明年某个时候出售2500万股股票，以便为潜在的“价值创造”投资机会提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop, meanwhile, said it plans to sell up to 5 million shares in an \"at-the-market\" offering, noting it will use the capital for \"general corporate purposes\" and investing in \"growth initiatives\" following a first quarter loss.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，游戏驿站表示，计划在“市场”发行中出售最多500万股股票，并指出将把这笔资金用于“一般企业用途”，并在第一季度亏损后投资于“增长计划”。</blockquote></p><p> \"Right now AMC is a $30 billion company with very little hope that it can survive unless it monetizes the meme support, which his exactly what it should do,\" Cramer said in hisReal Money Column Monday. \"&nbsp;GameStop needs a brilliant plan and while Cohen has brought in brilliant people, the issue is what is the company going to be? It can’t be what it is. No industry insider thinks that is possible.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默周一在他的Real Money专栏中表示：“目前AMC是一家市值300亿美元的公司，除非它将meme支持货币化，否则它生存的希望渺茫，而这正是它应该做的。”“游戏驿站需要一个出色的计划，虽然科恩引进了出色的人才，但问题是公司将会是什么样子？它不可能是现在的样子。没有业内人士认为这是可能的。”</blockquote></p><p> AMC shares were marked 8.5%&nbsp; lower in mid-day trading Monday to change hands at $54.30 each, a move that would take the stock's one-month gain to around 350%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价周一午盘下跌8.5%，换手至每股54.30美元，此举将使该股一个月涨幅达到350%左右。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop shares slumped 7.2% lower to $198.40 each, a gain of 12.5% from last month's levels.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价下跌7.2%，至每股198.40美元，较上月水平上涨12.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Data from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that AMC is still the most-discussed stock among users over the past 24 hours and more than 777 mentions.</p><p><blockquote>来自theyolosocks.live网站跟踪Reddit r/wallstreetbets聊天室中股票的实时提及情况，数据表明AMC仍然是过去24小时内用户讨论最多的股票，提及次数超过777次。</blockquote></p><p> Short interest in AMC shares remains elevated, however, with data from S3 Partners pegging it at 68.83 million. That represents around 13.8% of the outstanding float, or just under $4 billion in market value.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMC股票的空头兴趣仍然很高，S3 Partners的数据显示其空头兴趣为6883万股。这约占已发行流通股的13.8%，即市值略低于40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For GameStop. short interest is around 11.5 million shares, or 19.9% of the outstanding float, pegging bets against the money-losing retailer at $2.64 billion.</p><p><blockquote>为了游戏驿站。空头权益约为1150万股，占已发行流通股的19.9%，对这家亏损零售商的押注为26.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/amc-rises-meme-stocks-hold-gains-jim-cramer-warns-iceman-cometh?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/amc-rises-meme-stocks-hold-gains-jim-cramer-warns-iceman-cometh?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135948909","content_text":"AMC Entertainment (AMC) -Get Report shares slumped lower Monday, following a 20% gain last week that lifted the cinema chain's value close to $30 billion, as the two most active meme stock names continue to dominate Reddit-retail trading.\nTheStreet'sfounder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned Monday that the ability of meme-powered investors to boost stock prices could fade in the coming weeks, citing a series of failed recommendations from discussions on the r/wallstreetbets chatroom in Reddit.\nCramer noted that recent pullbacks in Wendy's (WEN) -Get Report, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) -Get Report and Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) -Get Report -- all of which have benefited from either a meme-drive retail surge or an attempt to squeeze investors betting against the stock -- suggest a retrenchment of influence back to the two stocks that started this year's phenomena: AMC and GameStop (GME) -Get Report.\nWith both stocks, however, Cramer says the only real bet is that CEO Adam Aron of AMC and Chairman Ryan Cohen of GameStop can raise enough money from the sale of shares to buy a sector rival and revive their failing businesses.\nAMC, which unveiled plans to sell 12 million new shares earlier this month after placing a further 8.5 million shares with hedge fund Mudrick Capital is looking for approval to sell 25 million shares at some point next year in order to fund potential 'value creating' investment opportunities.\nGameStop, meanwhile, said it plans to sell up to 5 million shares in an \"at-the-market\" offering, noting it will use the capital for \"general corporate purposes\" and investing in \"growth initiatives\" following a first quarter loss.\n\"Right now AMC is a $30 billion company with very little hope that it can survive unless it monetizes the meme support, which his exactly what it should do,\" Cramer said in hisReal Money Column Monday. \" GameStop needs a brilliant plan and while Cohen has brought in brilliant people, the issue is what is the company going to be? It can’t be what it is. No industry insider thinks that is possible.\"\nAMC shares were marked 8.5%  lower in mid-day trading Monday to change hands at $54.30 each, a move that would take the stock's one-month gain to around 350%.\nGameStop shares slumped 7.2% lower to $198.40 each, a gain of 12.5% from last month's levels.\nData from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that AMC is still the most-discussed stock among users over the past 24 hours and more than 777 mentions.\nShort interest in AMC shares remains elevated, however, with data from S3 Partners pegging it at 68.83 million. That represents around 13.8% of the outstanding float, or just under $4 billion in market value.\nFor GameStop. short interest is around 11.5 million shares, or 19.9% of the outstanding float, pegging bets against the money-losing retailer at $2.64 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166272795,"gmtCreate":1624014910017,"gmtModify":1631890035216,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Everyday there is a please sell your stock and run away news article. We know the danger. The danger we are bringing to all the short sellers in the market.&nbsp;","listText":"Everyday there is a please sell your stock and run away news article. We know the danger. The danger we are bringing to all the short sellers in the market.&nbsp;","text":"Everyday there is a please sell your stock and run away news article. We know the danger. The danger we are bringing to all the short sellers in the market.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166272795","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您与AMC划清界限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线是——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——奈飞、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您与AMC划清界限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线是——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——奈飞、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166270775,"gmtCreate":1624014663297,"gmtModify":1631890035225,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am quite concerned about battery swap. If everyone wants to swap battery at the sametime, will this cause serious delays?&nbsp;","listText":"I am quite concerned about battery swap. If everyone wants to swap battery at the sametime, will this cause serious delays?&nbsp;","text":"I am quite concerned about battery swap. If everyone wants to swap battery at the sametime, will this cause serious delays?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166270775","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度快于特斯拉，但它的交易价格却有折扣。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）因其强大的市场地位——在中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长和竞争激烈的电动汽车行业的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来在一些激烈的竞争中获胜，包括特斯拉(TSLA)。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们将讨论蔚来的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己明智的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位于高端SUV领域，专注于智能电动汽车，采用差异化的电池策略。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统[NOMI]，可与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等媲美。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借ES8大获成功带来的装机量和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了ES6和EC6。近日，该公司推出了首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车技术研究中心的数据，如今，蔚来以23%的市场份额成为4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）的7%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，该战略几乎消除了里程焦虑，而里程焦虑是电动汽车大规模采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，而且该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个电池交换站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池交换战略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务[BaaS]解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约11,000美元。由于成本是电动汽车大规模采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来的电池战略似乎很出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层在2016年推出了EP9，从而出色地创造了该品牌。六辆EP9已以250万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来凭借ES8瞄准了大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华汽车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为他们生产的产品质量低的看法作斗争。这与日本公司在二战后战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是摧毁“中国制造”等同于劣质观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固坚持这种旧观念的投资者将错过投资世界上一些最伟大品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着获得一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括充电车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国的客户服务方面名声不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在进一步挑战极限，推出了蔚来之家（London House）（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（Kenneth Life），其中包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品。蔚来围绕汽车打造生活方式的努力似乎正在发挥作用。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为逃离汽车代工竞争战场的唯一方法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利(RACE)的营业利润率远高于20%，而福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计2021年EBITDA为负2.58亿美元，2022年为正2.06亿美元。预计2021年自由现金流将为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计2021年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到放心，因为该公司在2020年退出时拥有59亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括6亿美元的短期投资，减去约21亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及2021年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在2021年退出时应拥有超过40亿美元的净现金和投资。这是足够的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在2022年产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注预期EV/销售额倍数，这对于尚未盈利的高速增长公司来说是典型的。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为EV/销售额的7至8倍，随后于2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，到2021年1月，蔚来的估值飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的预期销售额为8倍，这要合理得多。尽管TSLA的增长速度是其两倍，但这与TSLA 10.2倍的预期EV/销售额相比仍有很大折扣（预计TSLA 2021年收入将增长57%，而蔚来为117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来有很多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其换电战略高度差异化，且似乎增长迅速，但换电或快充基础设施的最终市场份额仍未定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池交换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式是创新和新的。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然没有盈利。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力改善之前，蔚来仍将是一个“向我展示”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在全球扩张的能力可能会受到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势加剧的限制，在较小程度上也会受到与日欧之间地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度正在增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服内燃机原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其车辆和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于其更快的增长率和更低的市盈率，蔚来的股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度快于特斯拉，但它的交易价格却有折扣。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）因其强大的市场地位——在中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长和竞争激烈的电动汽车行业的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来在一些激烈的竞争中获胜，包括特斯拉(TSLA)。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们将讨论蔚来的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己明智的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位于高端SUV领域，专注于智能电动汽车，采用差异化的电池策略。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统[NOMI]，可与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等媲美。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借ES8大获成功带来的装机量和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了ES6和EC6。近日，该公司推出了首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车技术研究中心的数据，如今，蔚来以23%的市场份额成为4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）的7%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，该战略几乎消除了里程焦虑，而里程焦虑是电动汽车大规模采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，而且该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个电池交换站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池交换战略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务[BaaS]解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约11,000美元。由于成本是电动汽车大规模采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来的电池战略似乎很出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层在2016年推出了EP9，从而出色地创造了该品牌。六辆EP9已以250万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来凭借ES8瞄准了大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华汽车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为他们生产的产品质量低的看法作斗争。这与日本公司在二战后战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是摧毁“中国制造”等同于劣质观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固坚持这种旧观念的投资者将错过投资世界上一些最伟大品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着获得一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括充电车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国的客户服务方面名声不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在进一步挑战极限，推出了蔚来之家（London House）（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（Kenneth Life），其中包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品。蔚来围绕汽车打造生活方式的努力似乎正在发挥作用。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为逃离汽车代工竞争战场的唯一方法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利(RACE)的营业利润率远高于20%，而福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计2021年EBITDA为负2.58亿美元，2022年为正2.06亿美元。预计2021年自由现金流将为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计2021年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到放心，因为该公司在2020年退出时拥有59亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括6亿美元的短期投资，减去约21亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及2021年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在2021年退出时应拥有超过40亿美元的净现金和投资。这是足够的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在2022年产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注预期EV/销售额倍数，这对于尚未盈利的高速增长公司来说是典型的。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为EV/销售额的7至8倍，随后于2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，到2021年1月，蔚来的估值飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的预期销售额为8倍，这要合理得多。尽管TSLA的增长速度是其两倍，但这与TSLA 10.2倍的预期EV/销售额相比仍有很大折扣（预计TSLA 2021年收入将增长57%，而蔚来为117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来有很多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其换电战略高度差异化，且似乎增长迅速，但换电或快充基础设施的最终市场份额仍未定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池交换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式是创新和新的。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然没有盈利。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力改善之前，蔚来仍将是一个“向我展示”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在全球扩张的能力可能会受到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势加剧的限制，在较小程度上也会受到与日欧之间地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度正在增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服内燃机原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其车辆和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于其更快的增长率和更低的市盈率，蔚来的股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161763897,"gmtCreate":1623940893619,"gmtModify":1631890035240,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Let’s hang on my fellow apes","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Let’s hang on my fellow apes","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Let’s hang on my fellow apes","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f41f2e896f4b1941367b4701ed5393","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161763897","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161787932,"gmtCreate":1623940810326,"gmtModify":1631890035251,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So many articles getting people to divert away from amc.&nbsp;","listText":"So many articles getting people to divert away from amc.&nbsp;","text":"So many articles getting people to divert away from amc.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161787932","repostId":"2144056746","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187611055,"gmtCreate":1623751844377,"gmtModify":1631890035263,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Where lambo?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Where lambo?","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Where lambo?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7310416b070914683eae96ba05964c84","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187611055","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182473928,"gmtCreate":1623601803564,"gmtModify":1634031261792,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is just the beginning of the applicationsof nft. And especially important for those in the creative industries.","listText":"This is just the beginning of the applicationsof nft. And especially important for those in the creative industries.","text":"This is just the beginning of the applicationsof nft. And especially important for those in the creative industries.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182473928","repostId":"2143788705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182372415,"gmtCreate":1623556145037,"gmtModify":1634031764182,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Only possible with a stock split. Otherwise how many are able to even buy or sell a single stock?","listText":"Only possible with a stock split. Otherwise how many are able to even buy or sell a single stock?","text":"Only possible with a stock split. Otherwise how many are able to even buy or sell a single stock?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182372415","repostId":"2142524078","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186542547,"gmtCreate":1623514431789,"gmtModify":1634032206348,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Selling puts. Either profit immediately or get the opportunity to buy at a lower price.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Selling puts. Either profit immediately or get the opportunity to buy at a lower price.","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Selling puts. Either profit immediately or get the opportunity to buy at a lower price.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbbbd4e23f5b521e189bb6bd890653d1","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186542547","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118303305,"gmtCreate":1622717206007,"gmtModify":1634098844954,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The short interest is 14%. How many hedge funds are still trying to cover their positions? Apes together strong. HODL! 💎👏","listText":"The short interest is 14%. How many hedge funds are still trying to cover their positions? Apes together strong. HODL! 💎👏","text":"The short interest is 14%. How many hedge funds are still trying to cover their positions? Apes together strong. HODL! 💎👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118303305","repostId":"1178258633","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1178258633","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622709110,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178258633?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 16:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Hedge Fund 1-0 Reddit Army<blockquote>AMC：对冲基金1-0 Reddit军队</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178258633","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.\nPrivate share placements dil","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.</li>  <li>Private share placements dilute shareholders and AMC's price should have gone down, not surged.</li>  <li>It looks as if this hedge fund just monetized the Reddit army.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072cd9d13e01f3f3defe064d4bcf6589\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>受定向增发消息影响，AMC股价飙升23%。</li><li>私募股权稀释了股东权益，AMC的价格应该下跌，而不是飙升。</li><li>看起来这家对冲基金刚刚将Reddit军队货币化了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：汤姆·库珀/盖蒂图片社娱乐公司，盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged another 23% on Tuesday after the movie theater chain announced a private placement of shares to an investment fund. Normally, capital raises cause stock prices to fall, not increase. The hedge fund looks to have turned the tables on the Reddit army.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线(AMC)宣布向投资基金私募股票后，该公司股价周二又飙升23%。通常情况下，融资会导致股价下跌，而不是上涨。这家对冲基金似乎扭转了Reddit大军的局面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Reason for AMC's price reaction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC价格反应原因</b></blockquote></p><p> Movie theater company AMC just did what a lot of companies do that have a lot of debt to service and need to confront an uncertain future… they offer new shares to investors and use the funds as a life line to survive.</p><p><blockquote>电影院公司AMC刚刚做了许多公司所做的事情，这些公司有大量债务需要偿还，需要面对不确定的未来……他们向投资者提供新股，并将资金用作生存的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> AMC issued&nbsp;8,500,000 shares&nbsp;for $230,500,000 to an investment firm named Mudrick Capital Management, LP. The investment firm has a focus on event-driven investing and distressed debt.</p><p><blockquote>AMC以230,500,000美元的价格向一家名为Mudrick Capital Management，LP的投资公司发行了8,500,000股股票。该投资公司专注于事件驱动型投资和不良债务。</blockquote></p><p> AMC said that it will use the proceeds from the capital raise for the \"pursuit of value creating acquisitions of theater assets and leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of its theaters\".</p><p><blockquote>AMC表示，将把此次融资所得用于“追求创造价值的影院资产和租赁收购，以及增强影院消费者吸引力的投资”。</blockquote></p><p> Fresh capital is much needed. AMC's revenues cratered during the pandemic and the theater chain is still suffering from COVID-19 shutdown restrictions and social distancing regulations.</p><p><blockquote>非常需要新的资本。AMC的收入在大流行期间大幅下降，该连锁影院仍受到COVID-19关闭限制和社交距离规定的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMC's revenues are expected to bounce back this year as the pandemic seemingly comes to an end, COVID-19 may have changed movie viewing habits permanently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管随着疫情似乎即将结束，AMC的收入预计今年将反弹，但COVID-19可能已经永久改变了观影习惯。</blockquote></p><p> One big challenge for AMC will be to get viewers back into its movie theaters. Streaming already was a competitive threat to the industry before COVID-19 and the pandemic may have accelerated this trend. A lot of people seem to have&nbsp;serious anxiety&nbsp;regarding a lockdown exit, so there is a valid question to be asked if movie theaters can really return to normal once the pandemic ends.</p><p><blockquote>AMC面临的一大挑战是让观众重返电影院。在新冠肺炎和疫情可能加速这一趋势之前，流媒体已经对该行业构成了竞争威胁。很多人似乎对封锁出口有严重的焦虑，所以有一个合理的问题要问，一旦疫情结束，电影院是否真的能恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> But back to AMC's announcement.</p><p><blockquote>但回到AMC的公告。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC surged 23% on Tuesday, which brings the total year-to-date return to more than 1,500%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价周二飙升23%，今年迄今的总回报率超过1,500%。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the technical situation of AMC… shares are now very, very much overbought...</p><p><blockquote>看看AMC的技术状况……股票现在非常非常超买……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda20bf9503e3abf095e0fb05639597b\" tg-width=\"1267\" tg-height=\"727\"><span>(Source: TradingView)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：TradingView）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC's trading volume on Tuesday was almost 500% the average trading volume with almost half a billion shares being bought and sold…</p><p><blockquote>AMC周二的交易量几乎是平均交易量的500%，买卖了近5亿股……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/188015773070c85dac8627ef00d7320a\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"287\"><span>(Source: ShortSqueeze)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：ShortSqueeze）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, the price reaction literally makes no sense given that the firm announced a capital raise, which increases the number of shares. As more shares are issued, the firms EPS is poised to decline as earnings are distributed over a larger amount of outstanding shares. The reaction to a capital raise is typically for the share price to fall, not to increase.</p><p><blockquote>然而，鉴于该公司宣布融资，从而增加了股票数量，价格反应实际上毫无意义。随着越来越多的股票发行，公司的每股收益将会下降，因为收益分配给更多的已发行股票。对融资的反应通常是股价下跌，而不是上涨。</blockquote></p><p> AMC now has a market capitalization of $14.4b compared to less than $1b in January...</p><p><blockquote>AMC目前的市值为144亿美元，而1月份的市值还不到10亿美元……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/466ba9dd813555ed3675587a5cc6c834\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A hedge fund is turning the tables on the Reddit army…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一家对冲基金正在扭转Reddit军队的局面……</b></blockquote></p><p> Mudrick Capital Management is said to have already&nbsp;exited its position&nbsp;in AMC after making a quick 20% on Tuesday. So Mudrick Capital Management is not a long term investor that is bringing its distressed debt and special situation expertise to AMC… the whole thing was really just a quick flip as the investment firm offloaded overpriced shares to retail investors that continue to buy into the frenzy because they hope for a short squeeze. The firm itself brazenly called AMC \"massively overvalued.\" If the firm made a 20% return on its invested capital, it secured $46m in profits yesterday… not bad for a day's work!</p><p><blockquote>据称，Mudrick Capital Management在周二快速上涨20%后已经退出了其在AMC的头寸。因此，Mudrick Capital Management并不是一个将其不良债务和特殊情况专业知识带到AMC的长期投资者……整个事情实际上只是一个快速翻转，因为该投资公司将定价过高的股票出售给继续疯狂买入的散户投资者，因为他们希望轧空。该公司本身厚颜无耻地称AMC“被严重高估”。如果该公司的投资资本回报率为20%，那么它昨天就获得了4600万美元的利润……对于一天的工作来说已经不错了！</blockquote></p><p> While AMC was likely happy to get an equity raise done at this valuation, the hedge fund sold its stake faster than AMC could get the filing about its unregistered sale of equity securities out...</p><p><blockquote>虽然AMC可能很高兴以这一估值完成股权融资，但该对冲基金出售其股份的速度比AMC提交有关其未注册出售股权证券的文件的速度还要快...</blockquote></p><p> <b>Extreme volatility and risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>极端波动性和风险...</b></blockquote></p><p> AMC's valuation has become even more ludicrous on Tuesday than it already was before. The movie theater chain, which was close to bankruptcy just a few months ago, now trades at a P-S ratio of 3.</p><p><blockquote>周二，AMC的估值变得比以前更加荒谬。这家连锁电影院几个月前还濒临破产，现在的市盈率为3。</blockquote></p><p> Cinemark Holdings (CNK), a theater rival which may itself be overvalued, trades at a P-S ratio of 1.0.</p><p><blockquote>喜满客控股(CNK)是一家影院竞争对手，其本身可能被高估，其市盈率为1.0。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c3d9572182dca54c798bab323e99b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The risk here is immeasurable because neither the price action nor the valuation makes any sense for AMC.</p><p><blockquote>这里的风险是不可估量的，因为价格走势和估值对AMC来说都没有任何意义。</blockquote></p><p> AMC's price should have gone down yesterday, not up because a capital raise is dilutive... but nothing makes sense anymore when it comes to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的价格昨天应该下跌，而不是上涨，因为融资会稀释……但对于AMC来说，一切都不再有意义了。</blockquote></p><p> AMC is trading independently of its business numbers and growth prospects and the risk of losing everything in this \"investment\" is extremely high.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的交易独立于其业务数量和增长前景，在这项“投资”中失去一切的风险极高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Closing thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> A hedge fund just had a big victory and nobody seems to notice or care.</p><p><blockquote>一家对冲基金刚刚取得了巨大胜利，但似乎没有人注意到或关心。</blockquote></p><p> You literally had a hedge fund flipping its stake in AMC to the Reddit army at a massively overpriced valuation and explicitly calling AMC \"overvalued.\" It can't get any more brazen than this. Please be careful.</p><p><blockquote>实际上，一家对冲基金以大幅高估的估值将其在AMC的股份出售给Reddit大军，并明确称AMC“估值过高”。没有比这更厚颜无耻的了。请小心。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Hedge Fund 1-0 Reddit Army<blockquote>AMC：对冲基金1-0 Reddit军队</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Hedge Fund 1-0 Reddit Army<blockquote>AMC：对冲基金1-0 Reddit军队</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 16:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.</li>  <li>Private share placements dilute shareholders and AMC's price should have gone down, not surged.</li>  <li>It looks as if this hedge fund just monetized the Reddit army.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072cd9d13e01f3f3defe064d4bcf6589\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>受定向增发消息影响，AMC股价飙升23%。</li><li>私募股权稀释了股东权益，AMC的价格应该下跌，而不是飙升。</li><li>看起来这家对冲基金刚刚将Reddit军队货币化了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：汤姆·库珀/盖蒂图片社娱乐公司，盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged another 23% on Tuesday after the movie theater chain announced a private placement of shares to an investment fund. Normally, capital raises cause stock prices to fall, not increase. The hedge fund looks to have turned the tables on the Reddit army.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线(AMC)宣布向投资基金私募股票后，该公司股价周二又飙升23%。通常情况下，融资会导致股价下跌，而不是上涨。这家对冲基金似乎扭转了Reddit大军的局面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Reason for AMC's price reaction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC价格反应原因</b></blockquote></p><p> Movie theater company AMC just did what a lot of companies do that have a lot of debt to service and need to confront an uncertain future… they offer new shares to investors and use the funds as a life line to survive.</p><p><blockquote>电影院公司AMC刚刚做了许多公司所做的事情，这些公司有大量债务需要偿还，需要面对不确定的未来……他们向投资者提供新股，并将资金用作生存的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> AMC issued&nbsp;8,500,000 shares&nbsp;for $230,500,000 to an investment firm named Mudrick Capital Management, LP. The investment firm has a focus on event-driven investing and distressed debt.</p><p><blockquote>AMC以230,500,000美元的价格向一家名为Mudrick Capital Management，LP的投资公司发行了8,500,000股股票。该投资公司专注于事件驱动型投资和不良债务。</blockquote></p><p> AMC said that it will use the proceeds from the capital raise for the \"pursuit of value creating acquisitions of theater assets and leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of its theaters\".</p><p><blockquote>AMC表示，将把此次融资所得用于“追求创造价值的影院资产和租赁收购，以及增强影院消费者吸引力的投资”。</blockquote></p><p> Fresh capital is much needed. AMC's revenues cratered during the pandemic and the theater chain is still suffering from COVID-19 shutdown restrictions and social distancing regulations.</p><p><blockquote>非常需要新的资本。AMC的收入在大流行期间大幅下降，该连锁影院仍受到COVID-19关闭限制和社交距离规定的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMC's revenues are expected to bounce back this year as the pandemic seemingly comes to an end, COVID-19 may have changed movie viewing habits permanently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管随着疫情似乎即将结束，AMC的收入预计今年将反弹，但COVID-19可能已经永久改变了观影习惯。</blockquote></p><p> One big challenge for AMC will be to get viewers back into its movie theaters. Streaming already was a competitive threat to the industry before COVID-19 and the pandemic may have accelerated this trend. A lot of people seem to have&nbsp;serious anxiety&nbsp;regarding a lockdown exit, so there is a valid question to be asked if movie theaters can really return to normal once the pandemic ends.</p><p><blockquote>AMC面临的一大挑战是让观众重返电影院。在新冠肺炎和疫情可能加速这一趋势之前，流媒体已经对该行业构成了竞争威胁。很多人似乎对封锁出口有严重的焦虑，所以有一个合理的问题要问，一旦疫情结束，电影院是否真的能恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> But back to AMC's announcement.</p><p><blockquote>但回到AMC的公告。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC surged 23% on Tuesday, which brings the total year-to-date return to more than 1,500%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价周二飙升23%，今年迄今的总回报率超过1,500%。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the technical situation of AMC… shares are now very, very much overbought...</p><p><blockquote>看看AMC的技术状况……股票现在非常非常超买……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda20bf9503e3abf095e0fb05639597b\" tg-width=\"1267\" tg-height=\"727\"><span>(Source: TradingView)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：TradingView）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC's trading volume on Tuesday was almost 500% the average trading volume with almost half a billion shares being bought and sold…</p><p><blockquote>AMC周二的交易量几乎是平均交易量的500%，买卖了近5亿股……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/188015773070c85dac8627ef00d7320a\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"287\"><span>(Source: ShortSqueeze)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：ShortSqueeze）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, the price reaction literally makes no sense given that the firm announced a capital raise, which increases the number of shares. As more shares are issued, the firms EPS is poised to decline as earnings are distributed over a larger amount of outstanding shares. The reaction to a capital raise is typically for the share price to fall, not to increase.</p><p><blockquote>然而，鉴于该公司宣布融资，从而增加了股票数量，价格反应实际上毫无意义。随着越来越多的股票发行，公司的每股收益将会下降，因为收益分配给更多的已发行股票。对融资的反应通常是股价下跌，而不是上涨。</blockquote></p><p> AMC now has a market capitalization of $14.4b compared to less than $1b in January...</p><p><blockquote>AMC目前的市值为144亿美元，而1月份的市值还不到10亿美元……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/466ba9dd813555ed3675587a5cc6c834\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A hedge fund is turning the tables on the Reddit army…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一家对冲基金正在扭转Reddit军队的局面……</b></blockquote></p><p> Mudrick Capital Management is said to have already&nbsp;exited its position&nbsp;in AMC after making a quick 20% on Tuesday. So Mudrick Capital Management is not a long term investor that is bringing its distressed debt and special situation expertise to AMC… the whole thing was really just a quick flip as the investment firm offloaded overpriced shares to retail investors that continue to buy into the frenzy because they hope for a short squeeze. The firm itself brazenly called AMC \"massively overvalued.\" If the firm made a 20% return on its invested capital, it secured $46m in profits yesterday… not bad for a day's work!</p><p><blockquote>据称，Mudrick Capital Management在周二快速上涨20%后已经退出了其在AMC的头寸。因此，Mudrick Capital Management并不是一个将其不良债务和特殊情况专业知识带到AMC的长期投资者……整个事情实际上只是一个快速翻转，因为该投资公司将定价过高的股票出售给继续疯狂买入的散户投资者，因为他们希望轧空。该公司本身厚颜无耻地称AMC“被严重高估”。如果该公司的投资资本回报率为20%，那么它昨天就获得了4600万美元的利润……对于一天的工作来说已经不错了！</blockquote></p><p> While AMC was likely happy to get an equity raise done at this valuation, the hedge fund sold its stake faster than AMC could get the filing about its unregistered sale of equity securities out...</p><p><blockquote>虽然AMC可能很高兴以这一估值完成股权融资，但该对冲基金出售其股份的速度比AMC提交有关其未注册出售股权证券的文件的速度还要快...</blockquote></p><p> <b>Extreme volatility and risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>极端波动性和风险...</b></blockquote></p><p> AMC's valuation has become even more ludicrous on Tuesday than it already was before. The movie theater chain, which was close to bankruptcy just a few months ago, now trades at a P-S ratio of 3.</p><p><blockquote>周二，AMC的估值变得比以前更加荒谬。这家连锁电影院几个月前还濒临破产，现在的市盈率为3。</blockquote></p><p> Cinemark Holdings (CNK), a theater rival which may itself be overvalued, trades at a P-S ratio of 1.0.</p><p><blockquote>喜满客控股(CNK)是一家影院竞争对手，其本身可能被高估，其市盈率为1.0。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c3d9572182dca54c798bab323e99b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The risk here is immeasurable because neither the price action nor the valuation makes any sense for AMC.</p><p><blockquote>这里的风险是不可估量的，因为价格走势和估值对AMC来说都没有任何意义。</blockquote></p><p> AMC's price should have gone down yesterday, not up because a capital raise is dilutive... but nothing makes sense anymore when it comes to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的价格昨天应该下跌，而不是上涨，因为融资会稀释……但对于AMC来说，一切都不再有意义了。</blockquote></p><p> AMC is trading independently of its business numbers and growth prospects and the risk of losing everything in this \"investment\" is extremely high.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的交易独立于其业务数量和增长前景，在这项“投资”中失去一切的风险极高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Closing thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> A hedge fund just had a big victory and nobody seems to notice or care.</p><p><blockquote>一家对冲基金刚刚取得了巨大胜利，但似乎没有人注意到或关心。</blockquote></p><p> You literally had a hedge fund flipping its stake in AMC to the Reddit army at a massively overpriced valuation and explicitly calling AMC \"overvalued.\" It can't get any more brazen than this. Please be careful.</p><p><blockquote>实际上，一家对冲基金以大幅高估的估值将其在AMC的股份出售给Reddit大军，并明确称AMC“估值过高”。没有比这更厚颜无耻的了。请小心。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432676-amc-hedge-fund-reddit-army\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432676-amc-hedge-fund-reddit-army","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178258633","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.\nPrivate share placements dilute shareholders and AMC's price should have gone down, not surged.\nIt looks as if this hedge fund just monetized the Reddit army.\n\nPhoto by Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images\nShares of AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged another 23% on Tuesday after the movie theater chain announced a private placement of shares to an investment fund. Normally, capital raises cause stock prices to fall, not increase. The hedge fund looks to have turned the tables on the Reddit army.\nReason for AMC's price reaction\nMovie theater company AMC just did what a lot of companies do that have a lot of debt to service and need to confront an uncertain future… they offer new shares to investors and use the funds as a life line to survive.\nAMC issued 8,500,000 shares for $230,500,000 to an investment firm named Mudrick Capital Management, LP. The investment firm has a focus on event-driven investing and distressed debt.\nAMC said that it will use the proceeds from the capital raise for the \"pursuit of value creating acquisitions of theater assets and leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of its theaters\".\nFresh capital is much needed. AMC's revenues cratered during the pandemic and the theater chain is still suffering from COVID-19 shutdown restrictions and social distancing regulations.\nAlthough AMC's revenues are expected to bounce back this year as the pandemic seemingly comes to an end, COVID-19 may have changed movie viewing habits permanently.\nOne big challenge for AMC will be to get viewers back into its movie theaters. Streaming already was a competitive threat to the industry before COVID-19 and the pandemic may have accelerated this trend. A lot of people seem to have serious anxiety regarding a lockdown exit, so there is a valid question to be asked if movie theaters can really return to normal once the pandemic ends.\nBut back to AMC's announcement.\nShares of AMC surged 23% on Tuesday, which brings the total year-to-date return to more than 1,500%.\nLooking at the technical situation of AMC… shares are now very, very much overbought...\n(Source: TradingView)\nAMC's trading volume on Tuesday was almost 500% the average trading volume with almost half a billion shares being bought and sold…\n(Source: ShortSqueeze)\nHowever, the price reaction literally makes no sense given that the firm announced a capital raise, which increases the number of shares. As more shares are issued, the firms EPS is poised to decline as earnings are distributed over a larger amount of outstanding shares. The reaction to a capital raise is typically for the share price to fall, not to increase.\nAMC now has a market capitalization of $14.4b compared to less than $1b in January...\nData by YCharts\nA hedge fund is turning the tables on the Reddit army…\nMudrick Capital Management is said to have already exited its position in AMC after making a quick 20% on Tuesday. So Mudrick Capital Management is not a long term investor that is bringing its distressed debt and special situation expertise to AMC… the whole thing was really just a quick flip as the investment firm offloaded overpriced shares to retail investors that continue to buy into the frenzy because they hope for a short squeeze. The firm itself brazenly called AMC \"massively overvalued.\" If the firm made a 20% return on its invested capital, it secured $46m in profits yesterday… not bad for a day's work!\nWhile AMC was likely happy to get an equity raise done at this valuation, the hedge fund sold its stake faster than AMC could get the filing about its unregistered sale of equity securities out...\nExtreme volatility and risks...\nAMC's valuation has become even more ludicrous on Tuesday than it already was before. The movie theater chain, which was close to bankruptcy just a few months ago, now trades at a P-S ratio of 3.\nCinemark Holdings (CNK), a theater rival which may itself be overvalued, trades at a P-S ratio of 1.0.\nData by YCharts\nThe risk here is immeasurable because neither the price action nor the valuation makes any sense for AMC.\nAMC's price should have gone down yesterday, not up because a capital raise is dilutive... but nothing makes sense anymore when it comes to AMC.\nAMC is trading independently of its business numbers and growth prospects and the risk of losing everything in this \"investment\" is extremely high.\nClosing thoughts\nA hedge fund just had a big victory and nobody seems to notice or care.\nYou literally had a hedge fund flipping its stake in AMC to the Reddit army at a massively overpriced valuation and explicitly calling AMC \"overvalued.\" It can't get any more brazen than this. Please be careful.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131193302,"gmtCreate":1621832659406,"gmtModify":1634186228091,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>Everyone says this is undervalued. How many of you are holding on to this?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>Everyone says this is undervalued. How many of you are holding on to this?","text":"$Alibaba(09988)$Everyone says this is undervalued. How many of you are holding on to this?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f06af93155b1a3af63f235ca8a3e42c4","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131193302","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197850356,"gmtCreate":1621442680975,"gmtModify":1631889021410,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BFLY\">$Butterfly Network Inc(BFLY)$</a>Am I a bag holder?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BFLY\">$Butterfly Network Inc(BFLY)$</a>Am I a bag holder?","text":"$Butterfly Network Inc(BFLY)$Am I a bag holder?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab183ff77a65061415ae8777b734d652","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197850356","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195883485,"gmtCreate":1621271743547,"gmtModify":1634192875601,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"That is the same thing they said about testla1 year ago","listText":"That is the same thing they said about testla1 year ago","text":"That is the same thing they said about testla1 year ago","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195883485","repostId":"1149212873","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377573718,"gmtCreate":1619539680934,"gmtModify":1634211928902,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is good news but might be too late for India","listText":"This is good news but might be too late for India","text":"This is good news but might be too late for India","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377573718","repostId":"1114427491","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":131193302,"gmtCreate":1621832659406,"gmtModify":1634186228091,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>Everyone says this is undervalued. How many of you are holding on to this?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>Everyone says this is undervalued. How many of you are holding on to this?","text":"$Alibaba(09988)$Everyone says this is undervalued. How many of you are holding on to this?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f06af93155b1a3af63f235ca8a3e42c4","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131193302","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121415736,"gmtCreate":1624489187625,"gmtModify":1631890035196,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The author has shorted amc so that is why he has written so many negative articles. I just hope that he is not selling naked calls, otherwise he will be in serious trouble.","listText":"The author has shorted amc so that is why he has written so many negative articles. I just hope that he is not selling naked calls, otherwise he will be in serious trouble.","text":"The author has shorted amc so that is why he has written so many negative articles. I just hope that he is not selling naked calls, otherwise he will be in serious trouble.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121415736","repostId":"1113795668","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166272795,"gmtCreate":1624014910017,"gmtModify":1631890035216,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Everyday there is a please sell your stock and run away news article. We know the danger. The danger we are bringing to all the short sellers in the market.&nbsp;","listText":"Everyday there is a please sell your stock and run away news article. We know the danger. The danger we are bringing to all the short sellers in the market.&nbsp;","text":"Everyday there is a please sell your stock and run away news article. We know the danger. The danger we are bringing to all the short sellers in the market.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166272795","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您与AMC划清界限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线是——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——奈飞、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您与AMC划清界限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线是——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——奈飞、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186542547,"gmtCreate":1623514431789,"gmtModify":1634032206348,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Selling puts. Either profit immediately or get the opportunity to buy at a lower price.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Selling puts. Either profit immediately or get the opportunity to buy at a lower price.","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Selling puts. Either profit immediately or get the opportunity to buy at a lower price.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbbbd4e23f5b521e189bb6bd890653d1","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186542547","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161763897,"gmtCreate":1623940893619,"gmtModify":1631890035240,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Let’s hang on my fellow apes","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Let’s hang on my fellow apes","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Let’s hang on my fellow apes","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f41f2e896f4b1941367b4701ed5393","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161763897","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161787932,"gmtCreate":1623940810326,"gmtModify":1631890035251,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So many articles getting people to divert away from amc.&nbsp;","listText":"So many articles getting people to divert away from amc.&nbsp;","text":"So many articles getting people to divert away from amc.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161787932","repostId":"2144056746","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187611055,"gmtCreate":1623751844377,"gmtModify":1631890035263,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Where lambo?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Where lambo?","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Where lambo?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7310416b070914683eae96ba05964c84","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187611055","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811439172,"gmtCreate":1630335106296,"gmtModify":1704958729107,"author":{"id":"3567209468158570","authorId":"3567209468158570","name":"Jerrywong76","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb628024b8bf8a62db30a806c6571a54","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567209468158570","authorIdStr":"3567209468158570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When you read articles like this, you know it is from the motley fool.","listText":"When you read articles like this, you know it is from the motley fool.","text":"When you read articles like this, you know it is from the motley 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