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Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>
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23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296361","media":"Barrons","summary":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier","content":"<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储发布6月份货币政策声明时，银行股上涨，该声明指出加息时间早于预期。周四，他们是市场最大的输家之一。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p><p><blockquote>这是有充分理由的。银行通常通过短期借钱和长期借钱来赚钱，并从利差中获利。当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，银行利润率通常会提高，而当情况相反时，利润会恶化。</blockquote></p><p> After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>周三会议结束后，10年期国债收益率大幅反弹，上涨0.071%至1.569%，而两年期国债收益率上涨0.038个百分点至0.203%，两者利差达到1.366个百分点。这种扩大使得金融业，尤其是银行股成为少数几个对美联储周三的声明做出积极反应的行业之一。SPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE)上涨0.9%，摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.7%，尽管标准普尔500指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.2%</blockquote></p><p> The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经改变了主意。10年期国债收益率跌至1.498%，两年期国债收益率升至0.238%，差距为1.26个百分点。对于银行等利率敏感行业来说，所谓的收益率曲线变平是个坏消息。SPDR S&P Bank ETF周四下跌4.5%，周五盘前交易下跌1%。摩根大通周四下跌2.9%，周五下跌约1%。周五标普500期货下跌0.6%，道指期货下跌0.8%。纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>市场为何大转变？为了让收益率继续上升，经济需要表明它正在迅速复苏。否则，投资者将押注美国在2008年金融危机后经历的缓慢增长。Evercore ISI策略师丹尼斯·德布斯切尔(Dennis DeBusschere)表示，由于周四初请失业金人数大幅下降，并在六周下降后首次上升，市场决定关注后者，而不是前者。他写道：“相对于所有人之前的想法，经济前景面临的风险是急剧转向鹰派，同时劳动力市场并不像美联储假设的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况改变之前，银行股将很难反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 23:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储发布6月份货币政策声明时，银行股上涨，该声明指出加息时间早于预期。周四，他们是市场最大的输家之一。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p><p><blockquote>这是有充分理由的。银行通常通过短期借钱和长期借钱来赚钱，并从利差中获利。当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，银行利润率通常会提高，而当情况相反时，利润会恶化。</blockquote></p><p> After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>周三会议结束后，10年期国债收益率大幅反弹，上涨0.071%至1.569%，而两年期国债收益率上涨0.038个百分点至0.203%，两者利差达到1.366个百分点。这种扩大使得金融业，尤其是银行股成为少数几个对美联储周三的声明做出积极反应的行业之一。SPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE)上涨0.9%，摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.7%，尽管标准普尔500指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.2%</blockquote></p><p> The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经改变了主意。10年期国债收益率跌至1.498%，两年期国债收益率升至0.238%，差距为1.26个百分点。对于银行等利率敏感行业来说，所谓的收益率曲线变平是个坏消息。SPDR S&P Bank ETF周四下跌4.5%，周五盘前交易下跌1%。摩根大通周四下跌2.9%，周五下跌约1%。周五标普500期货下跌0.6%，道指期货下跌0.8%。纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>市场为何大转变？为了让收益率继续上升，经济需要表明它正在迅速复苏。否则，投资者将押注美国在2008年金融危机后经历的缓慢增长。Evercore ISI策略师丹尼斯·德布斯切尔(Dennis DeBusschere)表示，由于周四初请失业金人数大幅下降，并在六周下降后首次上升，市场决定关注后者，而不是前者。他写道：“相对于所有人之前的想法，经济前景面临的风险是急剧转向鹰派，同时劳动力市场并不像美联储假设的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况改变之前，银行股将很难反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"C":"花旗","MS":"摩根士丹利","JPM":"摩根大通","GS":"高盛","WFC":"富国银行","BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296361","content_text":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.\nAfter Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%\nThe market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.\nWhy the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.\nUntil that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"C":0.9,"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168074931,"gmtCreate":1623945836223,"gmtModify":1634025440060,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168074931","repostId":"2144156742","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168075197,"gmtCreate":1623945824019,"gmtModify":1634025440948,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168075197","repostId":"2144742686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168072901,"gmtCreate":1623945806303,"gmtModify":1634025441879,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168072901","repostId":"1108846547","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168078530,"gmtCreate":1623945793220,"gmtModify":1634025443194,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168078530","repostId":"1100514296","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163702068,"gmtCreate":1623892714354,"gmtModify":1634026318047,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah yeah","listText":"Yeah yeah","text":"Yeah yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163702068","repostId":"1135886840","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163706478,"gmtCreate":1623892695494,"gmtModify":1634026318288,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long","listText":"Long","text":"Long","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163706478","repostId":"1157739738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157739738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623891796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157739738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 09:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157739738","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.When I look at AMC’s cha","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.</li> <li>Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.</li> <li>Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd621cec481d173c0f0d3b9be49ed335\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1241\"><span>BCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在成为第二波“模因”或动量股的领头羊后，AMC的举动与游戏驿站一月份的举动类似，表明可能会出现大幅下跌。</li><li>技术面、动量和搜索兴趣等重要短期指标开始形成类似于1月下旬GME的看跌模式。</li><li>鉴于7日和50日移动平均线之间的巨大差距，风险/回报似乎建议获利了结，启动对冲或空头/看跌头寸。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BCFC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>在过去两周左右的时间里，AMC（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）的股价经历了历史性的上涨。部分由于空头兴趣水平上升、期权的使用以及AMC采取的行动，股价在上个月上涨了约485%。今年，AMC上涨了约763.5%，至每股约55美元，市值为$28.4 B，尽管这一年对公司及其长期业务前景来说是根本性的破坏性。在今年早些时候游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME和其他“reddit”推动的股票的空头和伽马挤压中上涨后，AMC再次获得了动力，并以其表现从该集团中脱颖而出。这篇文章将比较GME在2月份惨败中的领导地位与AMC目前的领导地位，并将评估推动这些举措的催化剂及其寿命。鉴于这种股票价格走势的性质，不断重新考虑你的投资论点并重新评估是什么推动了价格走势是很重要的。在我看来，在这些情况下，技术分析占据了主导地位，我将指出许多因素表明现在可能是获利了结或在预期抛售的情况下建仓的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d813be28f7a34550ff50814b55a68e45\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: CNBC(GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.</p><p><blockquote>想想今年早些时候GME的上涨，当时它在一群动量或“模因”股票中处于领先地位。图表上顶部的红色带表示7日移动平均线，蓝色表示50日移动平均线，绿色表示200日移动平均线。从图表中可以看出，突破7日移动平均线之后总是会出现两个方向的大幅波动。在这些剧烈波动的情况下，7日移动平均线似乎是价格走势最有用的指标。正如您在图表中看到的，在2月、3月和6月，当GME价格突破7日移动平均线时，随之而来的是大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，50日移动平均线（蓝线）似乎在这一上升趋势中提供了一定程度的一致支撑，为走势中的几次反弹提供了一定程度的支撑。随着这种上升趋势的持续，50天和7天之间的差距已经缩小，从而在阻力和支撑位方面提供了更小的波动性和更大的可预测性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a18cedd2df4fa0530b6c94859b3021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\"><span>Source: CNBC [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.</p><p><blockquote>当我看AMC的图表时，它让我想起了2021年2月的GME。上涨迅速而明显（约23天内上涨约350%），类似于GME 2月份的上涨（约21天内上涨约1,525%）。两者都导致短期内7日移动平均线和50日移动平均线之间存在较大差异，因此在上行和下行方面都提供了较高的波动潜力。从GME的图表中可以看出，在前一周触及约350美元后，它最终测试了约45-50美元附近的50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.<i>This scenario offers ~60% downside.</i>Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.</p><p><blockquote>与GME类似，AMC在此次上涨后也在7日均线附近盘整，并使其能够赶上价格走势。如果AMC无法突破62.55美元并呈现新的动能，则有双重见顶的风险，向下突破7日均线，并重新测试20美元附近的50日均线。<i>这种情况会带来约60%的负面影响。</i>尽管我通常不会通过观察时间段来评估未来潜在的价格走势，但我认为重要的是要注意两种走势在时间段方面的相似性，并对GME走势后端的情况保持警惕。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Google Search Interest: The Momentum Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谷歌搜索兴趣：动量故事</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dda9563f56dc1df868212408e969418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends (GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些举措在很大程度上基于势头，谷歌搜索兴趣可能值得考虑。从图表中可以看出，GME的搜索兴趣在1月底2月初迅速上升和下降，与其股票表现非常一致。它的利息峰值几乎与价格峰值完全一致，利息下降与价格下降完全一致。同样，在测试约45美元左右的50日移动平均线后，其利息反弹跟随价格反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba476b389598252d5156f43d0962f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>当您查看AMC的谷歌搜索兴趣时，您还可以看到它在短时间内急剧飙升，然后随后急剧下降。由于搜索兴趣和交易量是GME 2月份下跌的领先指标，因此该图表可能表明如果无法反弹，可能会出现潜在的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cross-Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交叉分析</b></blockquote></p><p> When you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.</p><p><blockquote>当你将股票价格、搜索兴趣和交易量相互绘制图表时，它们之间的关系都会变得更加清晰，尽管在测量大量数字（如交易量与兴趣）时存在缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71c144385e0530f21df9f305b4eef2f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑GME时，图表显示变量具有相关性，尤其是在剧烈波动的上下波动中。虽然他们可能会在波动相对较小的时候偏离，但当事情以波动的方式发展时，他们会保持一种关系。在股价上涨后，搜索兴趣和交易量似乎直接引领或下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c1aab35454d89a6f58f78341bf918b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"375\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的图表实际上更清楚地展示了这些变量之间的关系和相关性。考虑一下GME的搜索兴趣和交易量实际上是如何先于价格下跌的，以及AMC的搜索兴趣最近是如何以类似的方式突破其价格的。</blockquote></p><p> While this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种分析方法并不完美，但重要的是要记住你的头寸的催化剂是什么，并不断分析它们在市场中的影响持续时间和寿命。与所有短期波动一样，基本面很少提供太多指示或近期价格走势。通常，技术面、成交量和动量提供了对未来价格走势最准确的预测，因此对分析最有用。</blockquote></p><p> Many have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.</p><p><blockquote>许多人为推动这一举措提供了催化剂，包括重新开放的叙述、伽马或轧空，或者股票发行带来的新资本涌入。底线是所有这些催化剂的有效寿命都依赖于动量。即使它们是随着时间的推移而发生的催化剂，像这样的价格大幅上涨也会缩短催化剂每日动量的寿命，直到它们重新测试长期平均值并通过增加交易量建立稳定性。</blockquote></p><p> I think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.</p><p><blockquote>我认为谨慎的做法是在这里获利了结，或者至少暂时获利了结超过50%，对于那些感兴趣的人来说，在预期大幅下跌的情况下建仓似乎是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.</p><p><blockquote>AMC看跌论点的风险包括新的动能和7日移动平均线上方的持续强势。正如我之前所阐述的，这似乎是这些情况下短期价格变动的最关键指标，并且一直是上行和下行剧烈波动的指标。如果AMC保持在该平均线之上并缩小7日与20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，它可能会保持这一较高的成交量和价格水平，并在触及新高之前进行盘整。我从根本上相信，虽然这里有催化剂在起作用，但当在这么短的时间内出现如此戏剧性的走势时，动量和技术因素就会接管决定未来的价格走势。因此，如果技术面崩溃，应该会有明显的下行空间。然而，如果技术面继续看涨，未来可能会有更多上涨空间。然而，AMC看起来与GME 2月份的走势类似，看跌双顶形态似乎正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion</p><p><blockquote>结论</blockquote></p><p></p><p> After writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.</p><p><blockquote>在1月份写了一篇关于AMC的看涨文章后，我们现在看跌该股，认识到关键动量指标的恶化以及与GME 2月份上涨和回落的技术相似性。在这样的事件中，催化剂会变得不稳定，评估投资论文中要点的寿命非常重要。当股价大幅上涨时，通常会有一段获利了结的时间，市场会重新定价催化剂的价值。如果只是动力作为催化剂，那么重新定价往往是鲜明且不稳定的。如果是更长期的催化剂，获利了结可以更加温和。虽然推动AMC崛起的催化剂可能有很多，但毫无疑问，有一个催化剂比所有催化剂都更重要，那就是动量故事。根据我们对GME的研究，考虑到20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，7日移动平均线似乎是大幅下跌之前值得关注的价格水平。随着谷歌搜索趋势、交易量和价格（双顶模式）似乎表明情况正在崩溃，至少与2月份的GME相似。人们应该考虑在这里获利了结，如果倾向于站在另一边，现在就考虑相应地建仓。虽然期权费很高，但我认为仍然有能力用一些短期期权（2周-4周）发起小仓位或对冲。如果价格走势向下，走势将会剧烈，因为下一个支撑位比当前价格低40美元。虽然我认为做空在这里可能是有意义的，而且借贷成本似乎没有那么高，因为做空股票的百分比不是GME的水平，但那里固有的风险更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 09:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.</li> <li>Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.</li> <li>Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd621cec481d173c0f0d3b9be49ed335\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1241\"><span>BCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在成为第二波“模因”或动量股的领头羊后，AMC的举动与游戏驿站一月份的举动类似，表明可能会出现大幅下跌。</li><li>技术面、动量和搜索兴趣等重要短期指标开始形成类似于1月下旬GME的看跌模式。</li><li>鉴于7日和50日移动平均线之间的巨大差距，风险/回报似乎建议获利了结，启动对冲或空头/看跌头寸。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BCFC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>在过去两周左右的时间里，AMC（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）的股价经历了历史性的上涨。部分由于空头兴趣水平上升、期权的使用以及AMC采取的行动，股价在上个月上涨了约485%。今年，AMC上涨了约763.5%，至每股约55美元，市值为$28.4 B，尽管这一年对公司及其长期业务前景来说是根本性的破坏性。在今年早些时候游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME和其他“reddit”推动的股票的空头和伽马挤压中上涨后，AMC再次获得了动力，并以其表现从该集团中脱颖而出。这篇文章将比较GME在2月份惨败中的领导地位与AMC目前的领导地位，并将评估推动这些举措的催化剂及其寿命。鉴于这种股票价格走势的性质，不断重新考虑你的投资论点并重新评估是什么推动了价格走势是很重要的。在我看来，在这些情况下，技术分析占据了主导地位，我将指出许多因素表明现在可能是获利了结或在预期抛售的情况下建仓的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d813be28f7a34550ff50814b55a68e45\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: CNBC(GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.</p><p><blockquote>想想今年早些时候GME的上涨，当时它在一群动量或“模因”股票中处于领先地位。图表上顶部的红色带表示7日移动平均线，蓝色表示50日移动平均线，绿色表示200日移动平均线。从图表中可以看出，突破7日移动平均线之后总是会出现两个方向的大幅波动。在这些剧烈波动的情况下，7日移动平均线似乎是价格走势最有用的指标。正如您在图表中看到的，在2月、3月和6月，当GME价格突破7日移动平均线时，随之而来的是大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，50日移动平均线（蓝线）似乎在这一上升趋势中提供了一定程度的一致支撑，为走势中的几次反弹提供了一定程度的支撑。随着这种上升趋势的持续，50天和7天之间的差距已经缩小，从而在阻力和支撑位方面提供了更小的波动性和更大的可预测性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a18cedd2df4fa0530b6c94859b3021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\"><span>Source: CNBC [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.</p><p><blockquote>当我看AMC的图表时，它让我想起了2021年2月的GME。上涨迅速而明显（约23天内上涨约350%），类似于GME 2月份的上涨（约21天内上涨约1,525%）。两者都导致短期内7日移动平均线和50日移动平均线之间存在较大差异，因此在上行和下行方面都提供了较高的波动潜力。从GME的图表中可以看出，在前一周触及约350美元后，它最终测试了约45-50美元附近的50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.<i>This scenario offers ~60% downside.</i>Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.</p><p><blockquote>与GME类似，AMC在此次上涨后也在7日均线附近盘整，并使其能够赶上价格走势。如果AMC无法突破62.55美元并呈现新的动能，则有双重见顶的风险，向下突破7日均线，并重新测试20美元附近的50日均线。<i>这种情况会带来约60%的负面影响。</i>尽管我通常不会通过观察时间段来评估未来潜在的价格走势，但我认为重要的是要注意两种走势在时间段方面的相似性，并对GME走势后端的情况保持警惕。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Google Search Interest: The Momentum Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谷歌搜索兴趣：动量故事</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dda9563f56dc1df868212408e969418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends (GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些举措在很大程度上基于势头，谷歌搜索兴趣可能值得考虑。从图表中可以看出，GME的搜索兴趣在1月底2月初迅速上升和下降，与其股票表现非常一致。它的利息峰值几乎与价格峰值完全一致，利息下降与价格下降完全一致。同样，在测试约45美元左右的50日移动平均线后，其利息反弹跟随价格反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba476b389598252d5156f43d0962f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>当您查看AMC的谷歌搜索兴趣时，您还可以看到它在短时间内急剧飙升，然后随后急剧下降。由于搜索兴趣和交易量是GME 2月份下跌的领先指标，因此该图表可能表明如果无法反弹，可能会出现潜在的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cross-Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交叉分析</b></blockquote></p><p> When you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.</p><p><blockquote>当你将股票价格、搜索兴趣和交易量相互绘制图表时，它们之间的关系都会变得更加清晰，尽管在测量大量数字（如交易量与兴趣）时存在缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71c144385e0530f21df9f305b4eef2f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑GME时，图表显示变量具有相关性，尤其是在剧烈波动的上下波动中。虽然他们可能会在波动相对较小的时候偏离，但当事情以波动的方式发展时，他们会保持一种关系。在股价上涨后，搜索兴趣和交易量似乎直接引领或下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c1aab35454d89a6f58f78341bf918b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"375\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的图表实际上更清楚地展示了这些变量之间的关系和相关性。考虑一下GME的搜索兴趣和交易量实际上是如何先于价格下跌的，以及AMC的搜索兴趣最近是如何以类似的方式突破其价格的。</blockquote></p><p> While this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种分析方法并不完美，但重要的是要记住你的头寸的催化剂是什么，并不断分析它们在市场中的影响持续时间和寿命。与所有短期波动一样，基本面很少提供太多指示或近期价格走势。通常，技术面、成交量和动量提供了对未来价格走势最准确的预测，因此对分析最有用。</blockquote></p><p> Many have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.</p><p><blockquote>许多人为推动这一举措提供了催化剂，包括重新开放的叙述、伽马或轧空，或者股票发行带来的新资本涌入。底线是所有这些催化剂的有效寿命都依赖于动量。即使它们是随着时间的推移而发生的催化剂，像这样的价格大幅上涨也会缩短催化剂每日动量的寿命，直到它们重新测试长期平均值并通过增加交易量建立稳定性。</blockquote></p><p> I think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.</p><p><blockquote>我认为谨慎的做法是在这里获利了结，或者至少暂时获利了结超过50%，对于那些感兴趣的人来说，在预期大幅下跌的情况下建仓似乎是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.</p><p><blockquote>AMC看跌论点的风险包括新的动能和7日移动平均线上方的持续强势。正如我之前所阐述的，这似乎是这些情况下短期价格变动的最关键指标，并且一直是上行和下行剧烈波动的指标。如果AMC保持在该平均线之上并缩小7日与20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，它可能会保持这一较高的成交量和价格水平，并在触及新高之前进行盘整。我从根本上相信，虽然这里有催化剂在起作用，但当在这么短的时间内出现如此戏剧性的走势时，动量和技术因素就会接管决定未来的价格走势。因此，如果技术面崩溃，应该会有明显的下行空间。然而，如果技术面继续看涨，未来可能会有更多上涨空间。然而，AMC看起来与GME 2月份的走势类似，看跌双顶形态似乎正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion</p><p><blockquote>结论</blockquote></p><p></p><p> After writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.</p><p><blockquote>在1月份写了一篇关于AMC的看涨文章后，我们现在看跌该股，认识到关键动量指标的恶化以及与GME 2月份上涨和回落的技术相似性。在这样的事件中，催化剂会变得不稳定，评估投资论文中要点的寿命非常重要。当股价大幅上涨时，通常会有一段获利了结的时间，市场会重新定价催化剂的价值。如果只是动力作为催化剂，那么重新定价往往是鲜明且不稳定的。如果是更长期的催化剂，获利了结可以更加温和。虽然推动AMC崛起的催化剂可能有很多，但毫无疑问，有一个催化剂比所有催化剂都更重要，那就是动量故事。根据我们对GME的研究，考虑到20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，7日移动平均线似乎是大幅下跌之前值得关注的价格水平。随着谷歌搜索趋势、交易量和价格（双顶模式）似乎表明情况正在崩溃，至少与2月份的GME相似。人们应该考虑在这里获利了结，如果倾向于站在另一边，现在就考虑相应地建仓。虽然期权费很高，但我认为仍然有能力用一些短期期权（2周-4周）发起小仓位或对冲。如果价格走势向下，走势将会剧烈，因为下一个支撑位比当前价格低40美元。虽然我认为做空在这里可能是有意义的，而且借贷成本似乎没有那么高，因为做空股票的百分比不是GME的水平，但那里固有的风险更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435124-amc-stock-take-profits\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435124-amc-stock-take-profits","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157739738","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.\nImportant short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.\nGiven the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.\n\nBCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nOver the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.\nTechnical Analysis\nSource: CNBC(GameStop)\nConsider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.\nInterestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.\nSource: CNBC [AMC]\nWhen I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.\nSimilarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.This scenario offers ~60% downside.Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.\nGoogle Search Interest: The Momentum Story\nSource: Google Search Trends (GameStop)\nAs these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.\nSource: Google Search Trends [AMC]\nWhen you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.\nCross-Analysis\nWhen you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.\nSource: ValueMan\nWhen considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.\nSource: ValueMan\nAMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.\nWhile this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.\nMany have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.\nI think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.\nRisks\nThe risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.\nConclusion\nAfter writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163708733,"gmtCreate":1623892678322,"gmtModify":1634026318955,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163708733","repostId":"1194240880","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163701723,"gmtCreate":1623892656162,"gmtModify":1634026319439,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Solid","listText":"Solid","text":"Solid","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163701723","repostId":"1162107156","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163701016,"gmtCreate":1623892631835,"gmtModify":1634026320168,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163701016","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169897722,"gmtCreate":1623826230966,"gmtModify":1634027491737,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169897722","repostId":"1145996523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145996523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623751116,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145996523?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 17:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?<blockquote>投资者和美联储并没有对通胀感到恐慌。他们应该吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145996523","media":"cnn","summary":"New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it co","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）在通货膨胀方面，大街和华尔街之间存在巨大的脱节。总得有所让步。</blockquote></p><p> The US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府上周报告称，5月份不包括食品和能源的消费者价格涨幅为1992年以来最快。宣伟(SHW)正在提高油漆价格，这是众多应对大宗商品成本上涨的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Food prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).</p><p><blockquote>食品价格也在飙升。Chipotle(CMG)刚刚提高了价格。金宝汤（CPB）也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> And the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave & Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅和街机连锁店Dave&Buster's(PLAY)的首席财务官在最近与分析师举行的财报看涨期权上表示，由于鸡肉、牛肉和乳制品价格上涨，他预计2021年食品成本将上涨6%至8%。</blockquote></p><p> Wages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.</p><p><blockquote>工资也在上涨，尤其是随着经济重新开放而重返工作岗位的零售、休闲和酒店行业的工人。这增加了通胀压力，因为一些公司会选择提高价格以维持利润。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages aren't helping.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺无济于事。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.</p><p><blockquote>在线宠物零售商Chewy(CHWY)的首席执行官在最新财报发布后致股东的一封信中写道，该公司“面临着与全国许多公司类似的劳动力短缺问题”。因此，Chewy继续“投资于更高的工资和福利”，以填补职位空缺。</blockquote></p><p> Yet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者和美联储对通胀上升不屑一顾，认为这是“暂时的”。长期债券收益率正在下降，这通常不会在通胀加剧时发生。如果债券投资者认为价格上涨将持续下去，他们就会要求更高的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> And the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>市场预计美联储年底加息的可能性仅为3%。这低于一个月前10%的加息可能性。投资者知道加息是央行对抗通胀上升的最佳工具，当美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上发表讲话时，他们希望听到更多有关该主题的信息。</blockquote></p><p> \"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦金融公司首席执行官兰迪·沃伦表示：“债券市场仍然不担心通胀。它正在购买美联储正在出售的东西。”</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，美联储可能会等待太久才对通胀做出反应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀是暂时的还是更具结构性的？”PineBridge Investments信贷和固定收益全球主管Steven Oh问道。“美联储将来会失去对它的控制，犯政策错误，没有能力控制它吗？”</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储和债券市场对通胀的看法是错误的，那么央行可能不得不以比其和投资者希望的更快的速度结束疫情刺激措施。这将意味着取消大规模资产购买并尽早加息。</blockquote></p><p> Oh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.</p><p><blockquote>哦，我不认为会是这样。许多其他人也同意。他们认为，投资者必须牢记经济复苏的速度有多快。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就业市场和供应链出现混乱也就不足为奇了。恢复到2019年底和2020年初新冠肺炎之前的水平需要时间。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"</p><p><blockquote>财富管理公司Clarus Group的负责人布莱恩·科斯洛(Bryan Koslow)表示：“关于通货膨胀有很多问题，因为你在日常生活中都会看到它。”“但我们可能已经看到了峰值，尤其是在工资增长方面。”</blockquote></p><p> Even if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.</p><p><blockquote>即使事实证明这是真的，投资者和消费者如此关注价格这一事实也值得注意。十多年来，通货膨胀基本上不是问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.</p><p><blockquote>SkyBridge Capital联席首席投资官兼高级投资组合经理Troy Gayeski表示：“美联储必须认真对待通胀担忧。”他补充说，他认为通胀压力有20%的可能性变得更加持久，而不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> \"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.</p><p><blockquote>“自2008年以来，有意义的通胀风险一直不存在。直到现在，”Gayeski说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's getting more expensive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么越来越贵</b></blockquote></p><p> Food and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.</p><p><blockquote>食物和油漆并不是唯一变得更贵的东西。正如CNN商业频道的莫伊拉·里特(Moira Ritter)指出的那样，最近几乎所有东西的价格都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Lumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.</p><p><blockquote>木材价格飙升。房地产市场继续繁荣。这导致沙发和其他家居用品的价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Used cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>二手车也贵得多。这归因于人们重返工作岗位，以及由于芯片供应短缺损害了新车的生产，经销商处新车短缺。</blockquote></p><p> People are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.</p><p><blockquote>人们也越来越多地旅行。由于预期一些人所说的“炙手可热的疫苗之夏”，机票价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Up next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday: </b>US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H & R Block (HRB)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b>美国零售额；美国生产者价格指数；Oracle(ORCL)和H&R Block(HRB)的收益</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday: </b>Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b>美联储利率决定；美国新屋开工和建筑许可；EIA原油库存；Lennar(LEN)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Thursday: </b>US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b>美国初请失业金人数；克罗格(KR)和Adobe(ADBE)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?<blockquote>投资者和美联储并没有对通胀感到恐慌。他们应该吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?<blockquote>投资者和美联储并没有对通胀感到恐慌。他们应该吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 17:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）在通货膨胀方面，大街和华尔街之间存在巨大的脱节。总得有所让步。</blockquote></p><p> The US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府上周报告称，5月份不包括食品和能源的消费者价格涨幅为1992年以来最快。宣伟(SHW)正在提高油漆价格，这是众多应对大宗商品成本上涨的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Food prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).</p><p><blockquote>食品价格也在飙升。Chipotle(CMG)刚刚提高了价格。金宝汤（CPB）也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> And the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave & Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅和街机连锁店Dave&Buster's(PLAY)的首席财务官在最近与分析师举行的财报看涨期权上表示，由于鸡肉、牛肉和乳制品价格上涨，他预计2021年食品成本将上涨6%至8%。</blockquote></p><p> Wages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.</p><p><blockquote>工资也在上涨，尤其是随着经济重新开放而重返工作岗位的零售、休闲和酒店行业的工人。这增加了通胀压力，因为一些公司会选择提高价格以维持利润。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages aren't helping.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺无济于事。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.</p><p><blockquote>在线宠物零售商Chewy(CHWY)的首席执行官在最新财报发布后致股东的一封信中写道，该公司“面临着与全国许多公司类似的劳动力短缺问题”。因此，Chewy继续“投资于更高的工资和福利”，以填补职位空缺。</blockquote></p><p> Yet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者和美联储对通胀上升不屑一顾，认为这是“暂时的”。长期债券收益率正在下降，这通常不会在通胀加剧时发生。如果债券投资者认为价格上涨将持续下去，他们就会要求更高的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> And the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>市场预计美联储年底加息的可能性仅为3%。这低于一个月前10%的加息可能性。投资者知道加息是央行对抗通胀上升的最佳工具，当美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上发表讲话时，他们希望听到更多有关该主题的信息。</blockquote></p><p> \"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦金融公司首席执行官兰迪·沃伦表示：“债券市场仍然不担心通胀。它正在购买美联储正在出售的东西。”</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，美联储可能会等待太久才对通胀做出反应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀是暂时的还是更具结构性的？”PineBridge Investments信贷和固定收益全球主管Steven Oh问道。“美联储将来会失去对它的控制，犯政策错误，没有能力控制它吗？”</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储和债券市场对通胀的看法是错误的，那么央行可能不得不以比其和投资者希望的更快的速度结束疫情刺激措施。这将意味着取消大规模资产购买并尽早加息。</blockquote></p><p> Oh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.</p><p><blockquote>哦，我不认为会是这样。许多其他人也同意。他们认为，投资者必须牢记经济复苏的速度有多快。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就业市场和供应链出现混乱也就不足为奇了。恢复到2019年底和2020年初新冠肺炎之前的水平需要时间。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"</p><p><blockquote>财富管理公司Clarus Group的负责人布莱恩·科斯洛(Bryan Koslow)表示：“关于通货膨胀有很多问题，因为你在日常生活中都会看到它。”“但我们可能已经看到了峰值，尤其是在工资增长方面。”</blockquote></p><p> Even if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.</p><p><blockquote>即使事实证明这是真的，投资者和消费者如此关注价格这一事实也值得注意。十多年来，通货膨胀基本上不是问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.</p><p><blockquote>SkyBridge Capital联席首席投资官兼高级投资组合经理Troy Gayeski表示：“美联储必须认真对待通胀担忧。”他补充说，他认为通胀压力有20%的可能性变得更加持久，而不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> \"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.</p><p><blockquote>“自2008年以来，有意义的通胀风险一直不存在。直到现在，”Gayeski说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's getting more expensive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么越来越贵</b></blockquote></p><p> Food and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.</p><p><blockquote>食物和油漆并不是唯一变得更贵的东西。正如CNN商业频道的莫伊拉·里特(Moira Ritter)指出的那样，最近几乎所有东西的价格都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Lumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.</p><p><blockquote>木材价格飙升。房地产市场继续繁荣。这导致沙发和其他家居用品的价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Used cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>二手车也贵得多。这归因于人们重返工作岗位，以及由于芯片供应短缺损害了新车的生产，经销商处新车短缺。</blockquote></p><p> People are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.</p><p><blockquote>人们也越来越多地旅行。由于预期一些人所说的“炙手可热的疫苗之夏”，机票价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Up next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday: </b>US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H & R Block (HRB)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b>美国零售额；美国生产者价格指数；Oracle(ORCL)和H&R Block(HRB)的收益</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday: </b>Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b>美联储利率决定；美国新屋开工和建筑许可；EIA原油库存；Lennar(LEN)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Thursday: </b>US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b>美国初请失业金人数；克罗格(KR)和Adobe(ADBE)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145996523","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.\nThe US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.\nFood prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).\nAnd the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave & Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.\nWages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.\nLabor shortages aren't helping.\nThe CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.\nYet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.\nAnd the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.\n\"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.\nThe problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.\n\"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"\nIf the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.\nOh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.\nFor that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.\n\"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"\nEven if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.\n\"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.\n\"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.\nWhat's getting more expensive\nFood and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.\nLumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.\nUsed cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.\nPeople are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.\nUp next\nTuesday: US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H & R Block (HRB)\nWednesday: Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)\nThursday: US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169897276,"gmtCreate":1623826209995,"gmtModify":1634027491987,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169897276","repostId":"1100476757","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169897195,"gmtCreate":1623826192017,"gmtModify":1634027492211,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"In","listText":"In","text":"In","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169897195","repostId":"1142026433","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169894465,"gmtCreate":1623826177557,"gmtModify":1634027492784,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169894465","repostId":"1142443814","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142443814","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1623802730,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142443814?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Tech Stocks May Continue To Struggle<blockquote>科技股可能继续陷入困境的3个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142443814","media":"Benzinga","summary":"So far in 2021, the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF is up 17.4% nearly double the year-to-date return ","content":"<p>So far in 2021, the <b>Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF</b> is up 17.4% nearly double the year-to-date return of the<b>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund</b>.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，<b>先锋价值指数基金ETF</b>上涨17.4%，几乎是年初至今回报率的两倍<b>科技精选行业SPDR基金</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Over the past decade, periods of time in which tech stocks have lagged value stocks have been short and sweet, but LPL Financial said there are at least three reasons why tech may no longer be leading the market higher for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，科技股落后于价值股的时期是短暂而甜蜜的，但LPL Financial表示，科技股在可预见的未来可能不再引领市场走高，至少有三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>First, many tech stocks that thrived during the period of social distancing and remote working will face extremely difficult comps and report growth slowdowns in the next several quarters. At the same time, value stocks in the industrials, materials and energy sectors that struggled during the shutdowns will experience the tailwinds of pent-up demand from the reopening.</li> <li>Second, the tech sector’s current forward earnings multiple of 25 is relatively high compared to its historical average. In addition, the Russell 1,000 Growth Index is currently valued at a 60% premium to the Russell 1,000 Value Index, its highest premium in the past 20 years.</li> <li>Third, the technology sector appears to be rolling over from a technical standpoint. The sector has lagged the S&P 500 since the beginning of September, suggesting technology’s momentum has stalled out.</li> </ul> “It’s tough not to like technology given the strong fundamentals and rapid pace of innovation from many tech companies,” LPL Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbindersaid Tuesday.“But we expect cyclical value sectors like financials, industrials, and materials to fare better the rest of the year as the economy gets a reopening jolt.”</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先，许多在社交距离和远程工作时期蓬勃发展的科技股将面临极其困难的竞争，并在未来几个季度报告增长放缓。与此同时，在停工期间陷入困境的工业、材料和能源行业的价值股将受益于重新开放后被压抑的需求。</li><li>其次，与历史平均水平相比，科技行业目前25的预期市盈率相对较高。此外，罗素1000成长指数目前估值较罗素1000价值指数溢价60%，为近20年来最高溢价。</li><li>第三，从技术角度来看，科技板块似乎正在滚动。自9月初以来，该行业一直落后于标普500，表明科技股的势头已经停滞。</li></ul>LPL股票策略师杰弗里·布赫宾德(Jeffrey Buchbinder)周二表示：“鉴于许多科技公司强劲的基本面和快速的创新步伐，很难不喜欢科技。但我们预计，随着经济重新开放，金融、工业和材料等周期性价值板块将在今年剩余时间内表现更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>Just because tech stocks are no longer leading the market higher doesn’t mean investors should dump all their tech holdings for value stocks. There will still certainly be outperformers within the tech sector that are among the largest gainers in the market in 2021, but the easy money that has come from investing in the sector as a whole in the past decade may be much harder to come by in the next several quarters.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga的看法：</b>仅仅因为科技股不再引领市场走高，并不意味着投资者应该抛售所有科技股，转而购买价值股。2021年，科技行业中肯定仍会有表现出色的公司跻身市场涨幅最大的公司之列，但过去十年投资整个行业带来的轻松资金可能在未来几个季度中更难获得。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Tech Stocks May Continue To Struggle<blockquote>科技股可能继续陷入困境的3个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Tech Stocks May Continue To Struggle<blockquote>科技股可能继续陷入困境的3个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 08:18</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>So far in 2021, the <b>Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF</b> is up 17.4% nearly double the year-to-date return of the<b>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund</b>.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，<b>先锋价值指数基金ETF</b>上涨17.4%，几乎是年初至今回报率的两倍<b>科技精选行业SPDR基金</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Over the past decade, periods of time in which tech stocks have lagged value stocks have been short and sweet, but LPL Financial said there are at least three reasons why tech may no longer be leading the market higher for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，科技股落后于价值股的时期是短暂而甜蜜的，但LPL Financial表示，科技股在可预见的未来可能不再引领市场走高，至少有三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>First, many tech stocks that thrived during the period of social distancing and remote working will face extremely difficult comps and report growth slowdowns in the next several quarters. At the same time, value stocks in the industrials, materials and energy sectors that struggled during the shutdowns will experience the tailwinds of pent-up demand from the reopening.</li> <li>Second, the tech sector’s current forward earnings multiple of 25 is relatively high compared to its historical average. In addition, the Russell 1,000 Growth Index is currently valued at a 60% premium to the Russell 1,000 Value Index, its highest premium in the past 20 years.</li> <li>Third, the technology sector appears to be rolling over from a technical standpoint. The sector has lagged the S&P 500 since the beginning of September, suggesting technology’s momentum has stalled out.</li> </ul> “It’s tough not to like technology given the strong fundamentals and rapid pace of innovation from many tech companies,” LPL Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbindersaid Tuesday.“But we expect cyclical value sectors like financials, industrials, and materials to fare better the rest of the year as the economy gets a reopening jolt.”</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先，许多在社交距离和远程工作时期蓬勃发展的科技股将面临极其困难的竞争，并在未来几个季度报告增长放缓。与此同时，在停工期间陷入困境的工业、材料和能源行业的价值股将受益于重新开放后被压抑的需求。</li><li>其次，与历史平均水平相比，科技行业目前25的预期市盈率相对较高。此外，罗素1000成长指数目前估值较罗素1000价值指数溢价60%，为近20年来最高溢价。</li><li>第三，从技术角度来看，科技板块似乎正在滚动。自9月初以来，该行业一直落后于标普500，表明科技股的势头已经停滞。</li></ul>LPL股票策略师杰弗里·布赫宾德(Jeffrey Buchbinder)周二表示：“鉴于许多科技公司强劲的基本面和快速的创新步伐，很难不喜欢科技。但我们预计，随着经济重新开放，金融、工业和材料等周期性价值板块将在今年剩余时间内表现更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>Just because tech stocks are no longer leading the market higher doesn’t mean investors should dump all their tech holdings for value stocks. There will still certainly be outperformers within the tech sector that are among the largest gainers in the market in 2021, but the easy money that has come from investing in the sector as a whole in the past decade may be much harder to come by in the next several quarters.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga的看法：</b>仅仅因为科技股不再引领市场走高，并不意味着投资者应该抛售所有科技股，转而购买价值股。2021年，科技行业中肯定仍会有表现出色的公司跻身市场涨幅最大的公司之列，但过去十年投资整个行业带来的轻松资金可能在未来几个季度中更难获得。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142443814","content_text":"So far in 2021, the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF is up 17.4% nearly double the year-to-date return of theTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund.\nOver the past decade, periods of time in which tech stocks have lagged value stocks have been short and sweet, but LPL Financial said there are at least three reasons why tech may no longer be leading the market higher for the foreseeable future.\n\nFirst, many tech stocks that thrived during the period of social distancing and remote working will face extremely difficult comps and report growth slowdowns in the next several quarters. At the same time, value stocks in the industrials, materials and energy sectors that struggled during the shutdowns will experience the tailwinds of pent-up demand from the reopening.\nSecond, the tech sector’s current forward earnings multiple of 25 is relatively high compared to its historical average. In addition, the Russell 1,000 Growth Index is currently valued at a 60% premium to the Russell 1,000 Value Index, its highest premium in the past 20 years.\nThird, the technology sector appears to be rolling over from a technical standpoint. The sector has lagged the S&P 500 since the beginning of September, suggesting technology’s momentum has stalled out.\n\n“It’s tough not to like technology given the strong fundamentals and rapid pace of innovation from many tech companies,” LPL Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbindersaid Tuesday.“But we expect cyclical value sectors like financials, industrials, and materials to fare better the rest of the year as the economy gets a reopening jolt.”\nBenzinga’s Take:Just because tech stocks are no longer leading the market higher doesn’t mean investors should dump all their tech holdings for value stocks. There will still certainly be outperformers within the tech sector that are among the largest gainers in the market in 2021, but the easy money that has come from investing in the sector as a whole in the past decade may be much harder to come by in the next several quarters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169892637,"gmtCreate":1623825971929,"gmtModify":1634027494520,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567074208229201","authorIdStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up","listText":"Up up up","text":"Up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169892637","repostId":"1179958588","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179958588","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623766192,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179958588?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Going Through A \"Rather Dry Spell\", Says Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas<blockquote>Morgan Stanley的Adam Jonas表示，特斯拉正在经历一段“相当干燥的时期”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179958588","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In most respects, the latest note from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley on Tesla has been more of the sa","content":"<p>In most respects, the latest note from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley on Tesla has been more of the same.</p><p><blockquote>在大多数方面，摩根士丹利Adam Jonas关于特斯拉的最新报告大同小异。</blockquote></p><p> You've got your bona fide comedy, as Jonas starts his note by saying \"Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for the stock,\" before defending his $900 price target on the name...</p><p><blockquote>你已经得到了你真正的喜剧，正如乔纳斯在他的笔记开始时所说的那样，“让我们在股票的起点上以健康的智力诚实开始”，然后为他900美元的目标价辩护...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9cc9bfba9fba1bf3593b4b6f4e20dbf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> You've got your \"pie in the sky\" style lofty estimates about a SaaS revenue stream that doesn't exist and that the company likely doesn't even have the infrastructure for...</p><p><blockquote>你对SaaS的收入流做出了“天上掉馅饼”式的高估，而这种收入流并不存在，而且该公司可能甚至没有基础设施...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e525d8ff30b02cefbdc8daecdcfcca7b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">You've got your insane valuation for Tesla's insurance business...</p><p><blockquote>你对特斯拉保险业务的估值太疯狂了...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67267c0686d45416d0cb73fda3e253c7\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">...and finally, you've got your proclamation that Tesla is going to exceed its timelines for autonomous productions. You know, because the company has been so masterful with handling timelines in the past.</p><p><blockquote>......最后，你宣布特斯拉将超越自主制作的时间表。你知道，因为该公司过去在处理时间表方面非常熟练。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7526beef593477f8a494eac3cd07e6f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"97\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> All told, it was a pretty standard Adam Jonas ticker tape parade for the company.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，对于该公司来说，这是一次非常标准的亚当·乔纳斯股票盘带游行。</blockquote></p><p> But tucked into what can only be described as the \"endless optimism\" of Jonas' note was an interesting point that the analyst made.<b>Namely, he appears to make the suggestion that CEO Elon Musk's latest obsession with bitcoin is indicative that Tesla's underlying business could be going through a \"dry spell\".</b></p><p><blockquote>但在乔纳斯的报告中只能被描述为“无尽的乐观”的内容中，分析师提出了一个有趣的观点。<b>也就是说，他似乎暗示首席执行官Elon Musk最近对比特币的痴迷表明特斯拉的基础业务可能正在经历“干旱期”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Over the past couple of months, incoming client interest on Tesla is focused mostly on Chinese sales/production data and Elon Musk’s tweets regarding Bitcoin. Might Tesla-Bitcoin fever may be telling us something about the lull in Tesla sentiment?</b>\" Jonas asks toward the beginning of his note.</p><p><blockquote><b>“在过去的几个月里，客户对特斯拉的兴趣主要集中在中国的销售/生产数据和Elon Musk有关比特币的推文上。特斯拉-比特币热可能告诉我们一些有关特斯拉情绪平静的信息吗？</b>”乔纳斯在笔记的开头问道。</blockquote></p><p> He continues:<b>\"You just know it’s a rather dry spell for Tesla when Bitcoin is the dominant new story and dominant driver of investor discussion day in, day out.</b>In our opinion, what’s considerably more interesting than ‘decoding’ the TSLA-Bitcoin relationship is the fact that there is a virtual ‘vacuum’ of developments and news related to other areas of technological and commercial progress that the company is involved with on renewable energy, storage networking and transportation.\"</p><p><blockquote>他继续说道：<b>“你只知道，对于特斯拉来说，这是一个相当干燥的时期，比特币是主要的新故事和投资者日复一日讨论的主要驱动力。</b>我们认为，比“解码”特斯拉与比特币的关系更有趣的是，与该公司参与的其他技术和商业进步领域相关的发展和新闻实际上存在“真空”能源、存储网络和运输。”</blockquote></p><p> He begrudgingly concludes about Tesla's underwhelming Model S Plaid unveil: \"<b>Yes, the Model S Plaid unveil was fun, but where’s the next ‘big’ development to move the company forward?\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他不情愿地总结了特斯拉平淡无奇的Model S Plaid发布会：“<b>是的，Model S Plaid的亮相很有趣，但推动公司前进的下一个‘重大’发展在哪里？”</b></blockquote></p><p> The lines even stood out CNBC's Carl Quintanilla who pointed it out early this morning.</p><p><blockquote>这些台词甚至引起了CNBC的卡尔·金塔尼拉(Carl Quintanilla)的注意，他今天早上就指出了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec9ba5f7279aee4c62994fd1495bdcec\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"530\">It's interesting to note this level of what appears to just be bemusement and exhaustion from Jonas. But whether or not it sticks out to the \"sophisticated investors\" buying Tesla stock remains another question...</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，乔纳斯似乎只是困惑和疲惫。但它是否会引起购买特斯拉股票的“老练投资者”的注意仍然是另一个问题……</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Going Through A \"Rather Dry Spell\", Says Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas<blockquote>Morgan Stanley的Adam Jonas表示，特斯拉正在经历一段“相当干燥的时期”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Going Through A \"Rather Dry Spell\", Says Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas<blockquote>Morgan Stanley的Adam Jonas表示，特斯拉正在经历一段“相当干燥的时期”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 22:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In most respects, the latest note from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley on Tesla has been more of the same.</p><p><blockquote>在大多数方面，摩根士丹利Adam Jonas关于特斯拉的最新报告大同小异。</blockquote></p><p> You've got your bona fide comedy, as Jonas starts his note by saying \"Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for the stock,\" before defending his $900 price target on the name...</p><p><blockquote>你已经得到了你真正的喜剧，正如乔纳斯在他的笔记开始时所说的那样，“让我们在股票的起点上以健康的智力诚实开始”，然后为他900美元的目标价辩护...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9cc9bfba9fba1bf3593b4b6f4e20dbf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> You've got your \"pie in the sky\" style lofty estimates about a SaaS revenue stream that doesn't exist and that the company likely doesn't even have the infrastructure for...</p><p><blockquote>你对SaaS的收入流做出了“天上掉馅饼”式的高估，而这种收入流并不存在，而且该公司可能甚至没有基础设施...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e525d8ff30b02cefbdc8daecdcfcca7b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">You've got your insane valuation for Tesla's insurance business...</p><p><blockquote>你对特斯拉保险业务的估值太疯狂了...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67267c0686d45416d0cb73fda3e253c7\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">...and finally, you've got your proclamation that Tesla is going to exceed its timelines for autonomous productions. You know, because the company has been so masterful with handling timelines in the past.</p><p><blockquote>......最后，你宣布特斯拉将超越自主制作的时间表。你知道，因为该公司过去在处理时间表方面非常熟练。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7526beef593477f8a494eac3cd07e6f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"97\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> All told, it was a pretty standard Adam Jonas ticker tape parade for the company.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，对于该公司来说，这是一次非常标准的亚当·乔纳斯股票盘带游行。</blockquote></p><p> But tucked into what can only be described as the \"endless optimism\" of Jonas' note was an interesting point that the analyst made.<b>Namely, he appears to make the suggestion that CEO Elon Musk's latest obsession with bitcoin is indicative that Tesla's underlying business could be going through a \"dry spell\".</b></p><p><blockquote>但在乔纳斯的报告中只能被描述为“无尽的乐观”的内容中，分析师提出了一个有趣的观点。<b>也就是说，他似乎暗示首席执行官Elon Musk最近对比特币的痴迷表明特斯拉的基础业务可能正在经历“干旱期”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Over the past couple of months, incoming client interest on Tesla is focused mostly on Chinese sales/production data and Elon Musk’s tweets regarding Bitcoin. Might Tesla-Bitcoin fever may be telling us something about the lull in Tesla sentiment?</b>\" Jonas asks toward the beginning of his note.</p><p><blockquote><b>“在过去的几个月里，客户对特斯拉的兴趣主要集中在中国的销售/生产数据和Elon Musk有关比特币的推文上。特斯拉-比特币热可能告诉我们一些有关特斯拉情绪平静的信息吗？</b>”乔纳斯在笔记的开头问道。</blockquote></p><p> He continues:<b>\"You just know it’s a rather dry spell for Tesla when Bitcoin is the dominant new story and dominant driver of investor discussion day in, day out.</b>In our opinion, what’s considerably more interesting than ‘decoding’ the TSLA-Bitcoin relationship is the fact that there is a virtual ‘vacuum’ of developments and news related to other areas of technological and commercial progress that the company is involved with on renewable energy, storage networking and transportation.\"</p><p><blockquote>他继续说道：<b>“你只知道，对于特斯拉来说，这是一个相当干燥的时期，比特币是主要的新故事和投资者日复一日讨论的主要驱动力。</b>我们认为，比“解码”特斯拉与比特币的关系更有趣的是，与该公司参与的其他技术和商业进步领域相关的发展和新闻实际上存在“真空”能源、存储网络和运输。”</blockquote></p><p> He begrudgingly concludes about Tesla's underwhelming Model S Plaid unveil: \"<b>Yes, the Model S Plaid unveil was fun, but where’s the next ‘big’ development to move the company forward?\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他不情愿地总结了特斯拉平淡无奇的Model S Plaid发布会：“<b>是的，Model S Plaid的亮相很有趣，但推动公司前进的下一个‘重大’发展在哪里？”</b></blockquote></p><p> The lines even stood out CNBC's Carl Quintanilla who pointed it out early this morning.</p><p><blockquote>这些台词甚至引起了CNBC的卡尔·金塔尼拉(Carl Quintanilla)的注意，他今天早上就指出了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec9ba5f7279aee4c62994fd1495bdcec\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"530\">It's interesting to note this level of what appears to just be bemusement and exhaustion from Jonas. But whether or not it sticks out to the \"sophisticated investors\" buying Tesla stock remains another question...</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，乔纳斯似乎只是困惑和疲惫。但它是否会引起购买特斯拉股票的“老练投资者”的注意仍然是另一个问题……</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-going-through-rather-dry-spell-says-morgan-stanleys-adam-jonas\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-going-through-rather-dry-spell-says-morgan-stanleys-adam-jonas","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179958588","content_text":"In most respects, the latest note from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley on Tesla has been more of the same.\nYou've got your bona fide comedy, as Jonas starts his note by saying \"Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for the stock,\" before defending his $900 price target on the name...\n\nYou've got your \"pie in the sky\" style lofty estimates about a SaaS revenue stream that doesn't exist and that the company likely doesn't even have the infrastructure for...\nYou've got your insane valuation for Tesla's insurance business...\n...and finally, you've got your proclamation that Tesla is going to exceed its timelines for autonomous productions. You know, because the company has been so masterful with handling timelines in the past.\n\nAll told, it was a pretty standard Adam Jonas ticker tape parade for the company.\nBut tucked into what can only be described as the \"endless optimism\" of Jonas' note was an interesting point that the analyst made.Namely, he appears to make the suggestion that CEO Elon Musk's latest obsession with bitcoin is indicative that Tesla's underlying business could be going through a \"dry spell\".\n\"Over the past couple of months, incoming client interest on Tesla is focused mostly on Chinese sales/production data and Elon Musk’s tweets regarding Bitcoin. Might Tesla-Bitcoin fever may be telling us something about the lull in Tesla sentiment?\" Jonas asks toward the beginning of his note.\nHe continues:\"You just know it’s a rather dry spell for Tesla when Bitcoin is the dominant new story and dominant driver of investor discussion day in, day out.In our opinion, what’s considerably more interesting than ‘decoding’ the TSLA-Bitcoin relationship is the fact that there is a virtual ‘vacuum’ of developments and news related to other areas of technological and commercial progress that the company is involved with on renewable energy, storage networking and transportation.\"\nHe begrudgingly concludes about Tesla's underwhelming Model S Plaid unveil: \"Yes, the Model S Plaid unveil was fun, but where’s the next ‘big’ development to move the company forward?\"\nThe lines even stood out CNBC's Carl Quintanilla who pointed it out early this morning.\nIt's interesting to note this level of what appears to just be bemusement and exhaustion from Jonas. 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23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296361","media":"Barrons","summary":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier","content":"<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储发布6月份货币政策声明时，银行股上涨，该声明指出加息时间早于预期。周四，他们是市场最大的输家之一。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p><p><blockquote>这是有充分理由的。银行通常通过短期借钱和长期借钱来赚钱，并从利差中获利。当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，银行利润率通常会提高，而当情况相反时，利润会恶化。</blockquote></p><p> After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>周三会议结束后，10年期国债收益率大幅反弹，上涨0.071%至1.569%，而两年期国债收益率上涨0.038个百分点至0.203%，两者利差达到1.366个百分点。这种扩大使得金融业，尤其是银行股成为少数几个对美联储周三的声明做出积极反应的行业之一。SPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE)上涨0.9%，摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.7%，尽管标准普尔500指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.2%</blockquote></p><p> The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经改变了主意。10年期国债收益率跌至1.498%，两年期国债收益率升至0.238%，差距为1.26个百分点。对于银行等利率敏感行业来说，所谓的收益率曲线变平是个坏消息。SPDR S&P Bank ETF周四下跌4.5%，周五盘前交易下跌1%。摩根大通周四下跌2.9%，周五下跌约1%。周五标普500期货下跌0.6%，道指期货下跌0.8%。纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>市场为何大转变？为了让收益率继续上升，经济需要表明它正在迅速复苏。否则，投资者将押注美国在2008年金融危机后经历的缓慢增长。Evercore ISI策略师丹尼斯·德布斯切尔(Dennis DeBusschere)表示，由于周四初请失业金人数大幅下降，并在六周下降后首次上升，市场决定关注后者，而不是前者。他写道：“相对于所有人之前的想法，经济前景面临的风险是急剧转向鹰派，同时劳动力市场并不像美联储假设的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况改变之前，银行股将很难反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 23:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储发布6月份货币政策声明时，银行股上涨，该声明指出加息时间早于预期。周四，他们是市场最大的输家之一。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p><p><blockquote>这是有充分理由的。银行通常通过短期借钱和长期借钱来赚钱，并从利差中获利。当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，银行利润率通常会提高，而当情况相反时，利润会恶化。</blockquote></p><p> After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>周三会议结束后，10年期国债收益率大幅反弹，上涨0.071%至1.569%，而两年期国债收益率上涨0.038个百分点至0.203%，两者利差达到1.366个百分点。这种扩大使得金融业，尤其是银行股成为少数几个对美联储周三的声明做出积极反应的行业之一。SPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE)上涨0.9%，摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.7%，尽管标准普尔500指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.2%</blockquote></p><p> The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经改变了主意。10年期国债收益率跌至1.498%，两年期国债收益率升至0.238%，差距为1.26个百分点。对于银行等利率敏感行业来说，所谓的收益率曲线变平是个坏消息。SPDR S&P Bank ETF周四下跌4.5%，周五盘前交易下跌1%。摩根大通周四下跌2.9%，周五下跌约1%。周五标普500期货下跌0.6%，道指期货下跌0.8%。纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>市场为何大转变？为了让收益率继续上升，经济需要表明它正在迅速复苏。否则，投资者将押注美国在2008年金融危机后经历的缓慢增长。Evercore ISI策略师丹尼斯·德布斯切尔(Dennis DeBusschere)表示，由于周四初请失业金人数大幅下降，并在六周下降后首次上升，市场决定关注后者，而不是前者。他写道：“相对于所有人之前的想法，经济前景面临的风险是急剧转向鹰派，同时劳动力市场并不像美联储假设的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况改变之前，银行股将很难反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"C":"花旗","MS":"摩根士丹利","JPM":"摩根大通","GS":"高盛","WFC":"富国银行","BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296361","content_text":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.\nAfter Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%\nThe market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.\nWhy the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.\nUntil that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"C":0.9,"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168074931,"gmtCreate":1623945836223,"gmtModify":1634025440060,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567074208229201","idStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168074931","repostId":"2144156742","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168075197,"gmtCreate":1623945824019,"gmtModify":1634025440948,"author":{"id":"3567074208229201","authorId":"3567074208229201","name":"AlsonLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d05f50cbd9a1066bd4b20a6492e9682","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567074208229201","idStr":"3567074208229201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168075197","repostId":"2144742686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
