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2021-08-28

Can buy meh?

Crypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote>

2021-07-27

Hope it another good quarter

Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>

2021-10-10

$PARKWAYLIFE REIT(C2PU.SI)$Can buy for long term investment?

2021-08-05

[Smile]

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2021-08-04

[Happy]

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2021-12-14

Well said

PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>

2021-07-31

Good time to sell?

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2021-11-19

Another possibility for rise?

外媒头条：苹果汽车最快四年后问世！据称瞄准全自动驾驶

2021-10-12

$SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(T82U.SI)$[Smile]

2021-09-24

Bitcoin is a bit risky investment, unlike gold where you can visualise the actual thing.

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"Well said","listText":"Well said","text":"Well said","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607016599","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606411188,"gmtCreate":1638919404459,"gmtModify":1638919437970,"author":{"id":"3566551108294874","authorId":"3566551108294874","name":"TEOCK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45b7f270580058cc6d297d5caa692c2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566551108294874","idStr":"3566551108294874"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple, go go go[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Apple, go go go[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Apple, go go go[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606411188","repostId":"2189674656","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2189674656","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638913113,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2189674656?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 05:38","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条：市值突破2.8万亿！苹果股价创历史新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2189674656","media":"新浪财经","summary":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美国银行业高管对通胀表示担忧 美联储加速taper压力走升\n\n\n2、辉瑞CEO：omicron似乎更温和但传播速度更快 或导致更多突变\n\n\n3、美","content":"<p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>业高管对通胀表示担忧 美联储加速taper压力走升</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>CEO：omicron似乎更温和但传播速度更快 或导致更多突变</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>3、美前财长萨默斯：美国未来两年衰退几率达四成 软着陆可能性20%-25%</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>4、洛杉矶港负责人预计供应链压力将至少持续到2022年底</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>上调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>目标股价 虚拟现实和自动驾驶带来定心丸</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>：2022年还是没有竞争对手能接近<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/957093fa98ee4fc8902a5e175f716ee4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>首席执行官David Solomon</p>\n<p><b>美国银行业高管对通胀表示担忧 美联储加速taper压力走升</b></p>\n<p>美国银行业高管周二对通胀持续上升的影响表示担忧，加大了美联储加快放缓资产购买步伐计划的压力。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>首席执行官Charlie Scharf表示，美联储可能需要加快行动以解决通胀问题。高盛首席执行官David Solomon则称，他预计将出现一段更高通胀的时期。</p>\n<p>国际货币基金组织（IMF）上周警告称，通胀压力将加剧，尤其是在美国，并表示美联储官员应更加关注通胀风险。</p>\n<p>Scharf在高盛金融服务会议上表示，美联储的行动应该比他们一直以来的行动更快。</p>\n<p>“通胀非常非常真实，”他说。“大多数行业的投入价格明显更高。劳动力短缺和工资增长是非常真实的。这种情况是否持续数年并不完全相关，但肯定会在明年左右产生影响。”</p>\n<p>高盛的Solomon在接受媒体采访时则预计，在一段时间内通胀会更高，但不会重演1970年代的成本上涨。</p>\n<p>“在一段时间内，我们的通胀率有可能高于趋势水平，但这并不意味着会像1970年代那样，”他说。“你必须保持谨慎并适当地管理你的风险。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7062bc67610ed5943cf066b86184f347\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>辉瑞CEO：omicron似乎更温和但传播速度更快 或导致更多突变</b></p>\n<p>辉瑞首席执行官Albert Bourla周二表示，新冠omicron变体似乎比以前的毒株温和，但传播速度更快，并在未来可能会导致更多突变。</p>\n<p>“我认为传播速度快的东西不是什么好消息，”Bourla在接受采访时说。“快速传播意味着它将在数十亿人中传播，并且可能会出现另一种突变。这不是你想要的。”</p>\n<p>白宫首席医学顾问福奇（Anthony Fauci）博士此前表示，上周末的南非报告表明，omicron并不像最初担心的那么严重，同时指出需要更多数据来全面评估该变体带来的风险。</p>\n<p>但Bourla警告称，目前很难从南非的感染浪潮中得出结论。只有5%的南非人口年龄在60岁以上，而年轻人的病症通常较轻。他还表示，南非的许多人也感染了HIV，这可能会导致新冠病毒引发更严重的疾病。</p>\n<p>Bourla表示，他预计在接下来的几周内，omicron确诊病例的数量将从几十例激增至数百万例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c207190bfaf3a8b77628b4e5446b844\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>美前财长萨默斯：美国未来两年衰退几率达四成 软着陆可能性20%-25%</b></p>\n<p>原美国财政部长拉里·萨默斯表示，通胀已变得根深蒂固，降低了美联储能够在不导致经济衰退的情况下遏制物价上涨的可能性。</p>\n<p>萨默斯现在预计，未来24个月有30%至40%的可能性会出现经济衰退。这位哈佛大学经济学家还估计，所谓的软着陆（即收紧货币政策不会严重遏制经济增长）的可能性在20%到25%之间。</p>\n<p>“有证据表明，在快速增长、通胀的经济环境中，实现软着陆是一件非常困难的事情，” 萨默斯周二表示。</p>\n<p>现年67岁的萨默斯表示，美国现在面临他一生中见过的最严重的劳动力短缺问题。目前的问题是工会现在将通胀补偿加入合同中。而财政部长珍妮特·耶伦则一再地表示，她没有看到薪资-物价螺旋式上升的迹象。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108a3efaf5329348e69baeb5176e19a7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>洛杉矶港负责人预计供应链压力将至少持续到2022年底</b></p>\n<p>美国最大港口运营商的负责人表示，供应链混乱的情况可能至少持续到明年年底才会消退。</p>\n<p>“我们处理进港货物还需要一段时间，数量仍然很高，”洛杉矶港负责人Gene Seroka周二接受采访时表示。</p>\n<p>他预计进港货物数量将在2月中国春节假期前触顶，美国进口商通常会提前很久预订1月订单，以赶在中国工厂和港口休假前补充库存。此外他还表示，零售商和家装公司计划补充库存以提高库存/销售比率，该比率处于2011年以来最低水平。“我认为这种情况至少会持续到2022年末，但我们正在一点一点地取得进展。”</p>\n<p>尽管洛杉矶和长滩港口设法缓和拥堵，但长时间延误的情况依然存在，这些港口合计处理美国40%的入境集装箱。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2025db280eca055dcb41e78980b20830\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>摩根士丹利上调苹果目标股价 虚拟现实和自动驾驶带来定心丸</b></p>\n<p>苹果公司的最高目标股价得到第二个机构的支持，摩根士丹利预计该公司将受益于虚拟现实和自动驾驶汽车等新产品类别。</p>\n<p>分析师Katy Huberty对苹果评级为增持，将目标股价从164美元上调至200美元，追平Wedbush给出的价格目标，在媒体跟踪的目标价中并列第一。苹果周二盘中上涨超3%，创历史新高。</p>\n<p>鉴于苹果公司的保密工作，投资者一直难以估值该公司的新产品，但Huberty预计增强现实和虚拟现实以及自动驾驶汽车将最终体现在股价中，并表示苹果也应该受益于科技股“追求品质”的投资趋势。</p>\n<p>“尽管新产品和服务一直带来持续而实质性的收入贡献，但苹果股票似乎没有体现即将推出的新产品的影响，”Huberty在一份报告中写道。“我们相信，随着苹果公司在未来一年推出AR/VR产品，情况会有所改变。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23918877a718c21a289d07e4fd590415\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>瑞银：2022年还是没有竞争对手能接近特斯拉</b></p>\n<p>瑞银（UBS）今日发布投资研究报告，将特斯拉目标股价从725美元调高至1000美元。</p>\n<p>瑞银认为，2022年特斯拉将继续主导电动汽车市场。瑞银分析师帕特里克·胡梅尔（Patrick Hummel）在报告中称：“通过垂直整合，特斯拉能更好地获得芯片和电池。与大多数竞争对手相比，这是特斯拉的关键优势，应该有助于巩固其的市场领导地位。”</p>\n<p>为此，瑞银继续维持特斯拉股票“中性”评级，将目标股价从725美元上调至1000美元。该目标股价略低于特斯拉本周一1009美元的收盘价。</p>\n<p>瑞银做出这一决定，正值电动汽车初创公司Rivian等竞争对手获得了投资者的浓厚兴趣，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>等传统汽车制造商致力于追赶特斯拉在在电动汽车市场的领先地位。</p>\n<p>但瑞银认为，特斯拉明年仍将继续主导该市场。瑞银在报告中称：“2022年，仍没有竞争对手能接近特斯拉。”</p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外媒头条：市值突破2.8万亿！苹果股价创历史新高</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条：市值突破2.8万亿！苹果股价创历史新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-08 05:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-08/doc-ikyakumx2687208.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美国银行业高管对通胀表示担忧 美联储加速taper压力走升\n\n\n2、辉瑞CEO：omicron似乎更温和但传播速度更快 或导致更多突变\n\n\n3、美前财长萨默斯：美国未来两年衰退几率达四成 软着陆可能性20%-25%\n\n\n4、洛杉矶港负责人预计供应链压力将至少持续到2022年底\n\n\n5、摩根士丹利上调苹果目标股价 虚拟现实和自动驾驶带来定心丸\n\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-08/doc-ikyakumx2687208.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4118":"综合性资本市场","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IMF":"Invesco Managed Futures Strategy ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GS":"高盛","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","UBS":"瑞银","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4527":"明星科技股","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4099":"汽车制造商","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-08/doc-ikyakumx2687208.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2189674656","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美国银行业高管对通胀表示担忧 美联储加速taper压力走升\n\n\n2、辉瑞CEO：omicron似乎更温和但传播速度更快 或导致更多突变\n\n\n3、美前财长萨默斯：美国未来两年衰退几率达四成 软着陆可能性20%-25%\n\n\n4、洛杉矶港负责人预计供应链压力将至少持续到2022年底\n\n\n5、摩根士丹利上调苹果目标股价 虚拟现实和自动驾驶带来定心丸\n\n\n6、瑞银：2022年还是没有竞争对手能接近特斯拉\n\n高盛首席执行官David Solomon\n美国银行业高管对通胀表示担忧 美联储加速taper压力走升\n美国银行业高管周二对通胀持续上升的影响表示担忧，加大了美联储加快放缓资产购买步伐计划的压力。\n富国银行首席执行官Charlie Scharf表示，美联储可能需要加快行动以解决通胀问题。高盛首席执行官David Solomon则称，他预计将出现一段更高通胀的时期。\n国际货币基金组织（IMF）上周警告称，通胀压力将加剧，尤其是在美国，并表示美联储官员应更加关注通胀风险。\nScharf在高盛金融服务会议上表示，美联储的行动应该比他们一直以来的行动更快。\n“通胀非常非常真实，”他说。“大多数行业的投入价格明显更高。劳动力短缺和工资增长是非常真实的。这种情况是否持续数年并不完全相关，但肯定会在明年左右产生影响。”\n高盛的Solomon在接受媒体采访时则预计，在一段时间内通胀会更高，但不会重演1970年代的成本上涨。\n“在一段时间内，我们的通胀率有可能高于趋势水平，但这并不意味着会像1970年代那样，”他说。“你必须保持谨慎并适当地管理你的风险。”\n\n辉瑞CEO：omicron似乎更温和但传播速度更快 或导致更多突变\n辉瑞首席执行官Albert Bourla周二表示，新冠omicron变体似乎比以前的毒株温和，但传播速度更快，并在未来可能会导致更多突变。\n“我认为传播速度快的东西不是什么好消息，”Bourla在接受采访时说。“快速传播意味着它将在数十亿人中传播，并且可能会出现另一种突变。这不是你想要的。”\n白宫首席医学顾问福奇（Anthony Fauci）博士此前表示，上周末的南非报告表明，omicron并不像最初担心的那么严重，同时指出需要更多数据来全面评估该变体带来的风险。\n但Bourla警告称，目前很难从南非的感染浪潮中得出结论。只有5%的南非人口年龄在60岁以上，而年轻人的病症通常较轻。他还表示，南非的许多人也感染了HIV，这可能会导致新冠病毒引发更严重的疾病。\nBourla表示，他预计在接下来的几周内，omicron确诊病例的数量将从几十例激增至数百万例。\n\n美前财长萨默斯：美国未来两年衰退几率达四成 软着陆可能性20%-25%\n原美国财政部长拉里·萨默斯表示，通胀已变得根深蒂固，降低了美联储能够在不导致经济衰退的情况下遏制物价上涨的可能性。\n萨默斯现在预计，未来24个月有30%至40%的可能性会出现经济衰退。这位哈佛大学经济学家还估计，所谓的软着陆（即收紧货币政策不会严重遏制经济增长）的可能性在20%到25%之间。\n“有证据表明，在快速增长、通胀的经济环境中，实现软着陆是一件非常困难的事情，” 萨默斯周二表示。\n现年67岁的萨默斯表示，美国现在面临他一生中见过的最严重的劳动力短缺问题。目前的问题是工会现在将通胀补偿加入合同中。而财政部长珍妮特·耶伦则一再地表示，她没有看到薪资-物价螺旋式上升的迹象。\n\n洛杉矶港负责人预计供应链压力将至少持续到2022年底\n美国最大港口运营商的负责人表示，供应链混乱的情况可能至少持续到明年年底才会消退。\n“我们处理进港货物还需要一段时间，数量仍然很高，”洛杉矶港负责人Gene Seroka周二接受采访时表示。\n他预计进港货物数量将在2月中国春节假期前触顶，美国进口商通常会提前很久预订1月订单，以赶在中国工厂和港口休假前补充库存。此外他还表示，零售商和家装公司计划补充库存以提高库存/销售比率，该比率处于2011年以来最低水平。“我认为这种情况至少会持续到2022年末，但我们正在一点一点地取得进展。”\n尽管洛杉矶和长滩港口设法缓和拥堵，但长时间延误的情况依然存在，这些港口合计处理美国40%的入境集装箱。\n\n摩根士丹利上调苹果目标股价 虚拟现实和自动驾驶带来定心丸\n苹果公司的最高目标股价得到第二个机构的支持，摩根士丹利预计该公司将受益于虚拟现实和自动驾驶汽车等新产品类别。\n分析师Katy Huberty对苹果评级为增持，将目标股价从164美元上调至200美元，追平Wedbush给出的价格目标，在媒体跟踪的目标价中并列第一。苹果周二盘中上涨超3%，创历史新高。\n鉴于苹果公司的保密工作，投资者一直难以估值该公司的新产品，但Huberty预计增强现实和虚拟现实以及自动驾驶汽车将最终体现在股价中，并表示苹果也应该受益于科技股“追求品质”的投资趋势。\n“尽管新产品和服务一直带来持续而实质性的收入贡献，但苹果股票似乎没有体现即将推出的新产品的影响，”Huberty在一份报告中写道。“我们相信，随着苹果公司在未来一年推出AR/VR产品，情况会有所改变。”\n\n瑞银：2022年还是没有竞争对手能接近特斯拉\n瑞银（UBS）今日发布投资研究报告，将特斯拉目标股价从725美元调高至1000美元。\n瑞银认为，2022年特斯拉将继续主导电动汽车市场。瑞银分析师帕特里克·胡梅尔（Patrick Hummel）在报告中称：“通过垂直整合，特斯拉能更好地获得芯片和电池。与大多数竞争对手相比，这是特斯拉的关键优势，应该有助于巩固其的市场领导地位。”\n为此，瑞银继续维持特斯拉股票“中性”评级，将目标股价从725美元上调至1000美元。该目标股价略低于特斯拉本周一1009美元的收盘价。\n瑞银做出这一决定，正值电动汽车初创公司Rivian等竞争对手获得了投资者的浓厚兴趣，以及通用汽车等传统汽车制造商致力于追赶特斯拉在在电动汽车市场的领先地位。\n但瑞银认为，特斯拉明年仍将继续主导该市场。瑞银在报告中称：“2022年，仍没有竞争对手能接近特斯拉。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"GS":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"IMF":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UBS":0.9,"DOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876107690,"gmtCreate":1637279182154,"gmtModify":1637279182154,"author":{"id":"3566551108294874","authorId":"3566551108294874","name":"TEOCK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45b7f270580058cc6d297d5caa692c2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566551108294874","idStr":"3566551108294874"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another possibility for rise?","listText":"Another possibility for rise?","text":"Another possibility for rise?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876107690","repostId":"2184889253","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2184889253","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1637271832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2184889253?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 05:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条：苹果汽车最快四年后问世！据称瞄准全自动驾驶","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2184889253","media":"新浪美股","summary":"　　亿万富翁对冲基金投资者阿克曼周四表示，美联储的超宽松货币政策创造了“经典泡沫”，他认为美联储将需要更快地收紧政策以对抗通胀。　　“我们正处于由美联储推动的典型泡沫中，”冲基金潘兴广场资本管理公司创始人兼CEO阿克曼表示。　　最新数据显示，美国10月份消费者价格飙升6.2%，创下1990年11月以来最高点。　　阿克曼表示，通胀是他的对冲基金今年面临的最大风险，并预计美联储将不得不很快加息。","content":"<p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>1、阿克曼：美国面临美联储宽松货币政策助长的“经典泡沫”</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>着眼攻克行业难关推出全自动驾驶汽车 据悉近期突破关键里程碑</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>3、比尔·盖茨：明年新冠肺炎死亡率和感染率将低于流感</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>4、美国通胀大潮波及网上购物 曾经的折扣天堂也难以幸免</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>资产管理预计脱欧影响将迫使英国央行率先其他央行加息</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在美国召回7600辆汽车：安全气囊存在隐患</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd1ef87596fa868755d2ee411181f5d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>阿克曼：美国面临美联储宽松货币政策助长的“经典泡沫”</b></p>\n<p>亿万富翁对冲基金投资者阿克曼（William Ackman）周四表示，美联储的超宽松货币政策创造了“经典泡沫”，他认为美联储将需要更快地收紧政策以对抗通胀。</p>\n<p>“我们正处于由美联储推动的典型泡沫中，”冲基金潘兴广场资本管理公司（Pershing Square Capital Management）创始人兼CEO阿克曼表示。</p>\n<p>最新数据显示，美国10月份消费者价格飙升6.2%，创下1990年11月以来最高点。</p>\n<p>“每个指标都在闪烁红色警报，”阿克曼说，他提到了房地产、艺术品市场和股票市场的价格飙升。</p>\n<p>阿克曼表示，通胀是他的对冲基金今年面临的最大风险，并预计美联储将不得不很快加息。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca6c287884e368a1cc9cd335422dc690\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>着眼攻克行业难关推出全自动驾驶汽车 据悉近期突破关键里程碑</b></p>\n<p>知情人士透露，苹果公司力争加快电动汽车研发速度，重新将项目重点放到全自动驾驶能力方面，致力于解决困扰整个汽车产业的技术挑战。</p>\n<p>过去几年，苹果公司的汽车团队一并探索了两条路径：研发一款拥有有限自动驾驶能力的车型，专注于转向和加速，与目前许多汽车相仿；亦或是打造一款配备全自动驾驶能力的车型，无需人类参与。</p>\n<p>在新的带头人--苹果手表软件主管Kevin Lynch--的领导下，现在工程师们重点关注第二条路径。知情人士称，Lynch希望首款车型配备全自动驾驶系统。因此事未公开，知情人士要求匿名。</p>\n<p>苹果内部设定的目标是在四年内推出自动驾驶汽车，比今年早些时候一些工程师所计划的五至七年更快。但是时间无法确定，能否实现2025年推出汽车的目标取决于公司是否有能力完成自动驾驶系统，而这是一项艰巨的任务。如果苹果无法实现目标，可能推迟发布，或是先发布一款技术能力较弱的车型。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64b864f042b5359a9029960976c33ac2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>比尔·盖茨：明年新冠肺炎死亡率和感染率将低于流感</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>联合创始人比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）称，在不出现新变种的前提下，到明年年中，新冠肺炎导致的死亡率和感染率可能会降至低于流感的水平。</p>\n<p>盖茨在新加坡参加一场经济论坛时表示，在自然免疫和疫苗免疫，以及新兴的口服疗法的帮助下，新冠肺炎导致的死亡率和发病率应该会大幅下降。</p>\n<p>盖茨还称，明年全球接种新冠肺炎疫苗的限制将发生变化，因为供应问题即将得到解决，取而代之的是物流问题，即如何分发所有的疫苗。</p>\n<p>盖茨在接受采访时表示：“疫苗方面是一个非常好的消息，到明年年中，供应限制将在很大程度上得到解决。之后，我们将面临物流和需求方面的问题。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39b92b302433d3983c63c9084806a3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>美国通胀大潮波及网上购物 曾经的折扣天堂也难以幸免</b></p>\n<p>随着美国经济从疫情中复苏，曾经是折扣和便宜商品天堂的电子商务却已成为稳定的通胀来源。</p>\n<p>根据软件公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>&nbsp;Inc．的数据，10月在线物价同比上涨1.9%，环比上涨0.9%。这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>数字物价指数连续第17个月上涨，此前则连跌超过六年。</p>\n<p>假日购物季开始时——零售商通常这个时候会打折以促进销售——出现物价上涨是美国通胀有多普遍的另一个迹象。</p>\n<p>Adobe预计，这个假日季消费者每4美元中就会有1美元花在网上。</p>\n<p>“随着电子商务在整体零售中占据更大的份额，这种定价趋势已成为更重要的对消费者的净影响指标，”Adobe分析师Vivek Pandya在一份报告中表示。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c4a5914832b0f619a1eda4378ebc7e3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>资产管理预计脱欧影响将迫使英国央行率先其他央行加息</b></p>\n<p>高盛资产管理表示，由英国脱欧引起的劳动力短缺可能意味着英国央行会比其他主要央行更早加息。</p>\n<p>该机构做空英国国债，预计英国央行将于下月加息，到2022年6月前再进一步加息两次。该机构还做空英镑，因英国和欧盟之间的贸易可能进一步受到干扰。</p>\n<p>“英国脱欧的影响主要体现在劳动力供应方面，”高盛资产管理的全球固定收益投资组合经理Hugh <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGP.AU\">Briscoe</a>通过电邮表示。“虽说是全球性问题，但英国走出疫情之际，正在面临尤为严重的劳动力短缺。”</p>\n<p>“即使在我们认为所消化的未来一年货币紧缩程度过大的市场，我们也对增持敞口保持谨慎，因为随着我们逐步接近加息周期，波动性增强的空间有所放大，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGP.AU\">Briscoe</a>表示。“我们认为英国的曲线过于平坦，但是错位的情况短期之内可能会持续。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b06f80a7c76e9762dfb27a01c005063\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在美国召回7600辆汽车：安全气囊存在隐患</b></p>\n<p>美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）宣布，特斯拉将在美国召回7600辆电动汽车，原因是司机的安全气囊缓冲在部署过程中可能会破裂。</p>\n<p>NHTSA称，驾驶员座位的安全气囊可能在展开时撕裂，导致无法在碰撞发生中充分保护驾驶员，并增加受伤的风险。</p>\n<p>文件显示显示，此次召回涉及部分2021年生产的Model X和Model S车型。</p>\n<p>今年2月，特斯拉曾宣布，将召回134951辆Model S和Model X电动汽车。这些车辆的触摸屏系统存在问题，可能导致摄像头图像消失，挡风玻璃除雾和除霜系统失灵，从而降低司机在恶劣天气下的能见度。</p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外媒头条：苹果汽车最快四年后问世！据称瞄准全自动驾驶</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条：苹果汽车最快四年后问世！据称瞄准全自动驾驶\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-19 05:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-19/doc-iktzscyy6409060.shtml><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、阿克曼：美国面临美联储宽松货币政策助长的“经典泡沫”\n\n\n2、苹果着眼攻克行业难关推出全自动驾驶汽车 据悉近期突破关键里程碑\n\n\n3、比尔·盖茨：明年新冠肺炎死亡率和感染率将低于流感\n\n\n4、美国通胀大潮波及网上购物 曾经的折扣天堂也难以幸免\n\n\n5、高盛资产管理预计脱欧影响将迫使英国央行率先其他央行加息\n\n\n6、特斯拉在美国召回7600辆汽车...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-19/doc-iktzscyy6409060.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd1ef87596fa868755d2ee411181f5d","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-19/doc-iktzscyy6409060.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2184889253","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、阿克曼：美国面临美联储宽松货币政策助长的“经典泡沫”\n\n\n2、苹果着眼攻克行业难关推出全自动驾驶汽车 据悉近期突破关键里程碑\n\n\n3、比尔·盖茨：明年新冠肺炎死亡率和感染率将低于流感\n\n\n4、美国通胀大潮波及网上购物 曾经的折扣天堂也难以幸免\n\n\n5、高盛资产管理预计脱欧影响将迫使英国央行率先其他央行加息\n\n\n6、特斯拉在美国召回7600辆汽车：安全气囊存在隐患\n\n\n阿克曼：美国面临美联储宽松货币政策助长的“经典泡沫”\n亿万富翁对冲基金投资者阿克曼（William Ackman）周四表示，美联储的超宽松货币政策创造了“经典泡沫”，他认为美联储将需要更快地收紧政策以对抗通胀。\n“我们正处于由美联储推动的典型泡沫中，”冲基金潘兴广场资本管理公司（Pershing Square Capital Management）创始人兼CEO阿克曼表示。\n最新数据显示，美国10月份消费者价格飙升6.2%，创下1990年11月以来最高点。\n“每个指标都在闪烁红色警报，”阿克曼说，他提到了房地产、艺术品市场和股票市场的价格飙升。\n阿克曼表示，通胀是他的对冲基金今年面临的最大风险，并预计美联储将不得不很快加息。\n\n苹果着眼攻克行业难关推出全自动驾驶汽车 据悉近期突破关键里程碑\n知情人士透露，苹果公司力争加快电动汽车研发速度，重新将项目重点放到全自动驾驶能力方面，致力于解决困扰整个汽车产业的技术挑战。\n过去几年，苹果公司的汽车团队一并探索了两条路径：研发一款拥有有限自动驾驶能力的车型，专注于转向和加速，与目前许多汽车相仿；亦或是打造一款配备全自动驾驶能力的车型，无需人类参与。\n在新的带头人--苹果手表软件主管Kevin Lynch--的领导下，现在工程师们重点关注第二条路径。知情人士称，Lynch希望首款车型配备全自动驾驶系统。因此事未公开，知情人士要求匿名。\n苹果内部设定的目标是在四年内推出自动驾驶汽车，比今年早些时候一些工程师所计划的五至七年更快。但是时间无法确定，能否实现2025年推出汽车的目标取决于公司是否有能力完成自动驾驶系统，而这是一项艰巨的任务。如果苹果无法实现目标，可能推迟发布，或是先发布一款技术能力较弱的车型。\n\n比尔·盖茨：明年新冠肺炎死亡率和感染率将低于流感\n微软联合创始人比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）称，在不出现新变种的前提下，到明年年中，新冠肺炎导致的死亡率和感染率可能会降至低于流感的水平。\n盖茨在新加坡参加一场经济论坛时表示，在自然免疫和疫苗免疫，以及新兴的口服疗法的帮助下，新冠肺炎导致的死亡率和发病率应该会大幅下降。\n盖茨还称，明年全球接种新冠肺炎疫苗的限制将发生变化，因为供应问题即将得到解决，取而代之的是物流问题，即如何分发所有的疫苗。\n盖茨在接受采访时表示：“疫苗方面是一个非常好的消息，到明年年中，供应限制将在很大程度上得到解决。之后，我们将面临物流和需求方面的问题。”\n\n美国通胀大潮波及网上购物 曾经的折扣天堂也难以幸免\n随着美国经济从疫情中复苏，曾经是折扣和便宜商品天堂的电子商务却已成为稳定的通胀来源。\n根据软件公司Adobe Inc．的数据，10月在线物价同比上涨1.9%，环比上涨0.9%。这是Adobe数字物价指数连续第17个月上涨，此前则连跌超过六年。\n假日购物季开始时——零售商通常这个时候会打折以促进销售——出现物价上涨是美国通胀有多普遍的另一个迹象。\nAdobe预计，这个假日季消费者每4美元中就会有1美元花在网上。\n“随着电子商务在整体零售中占据更大的份额，这种定价趋势已成为更重要的对消费者的净影响指标，”Adobe分析师Vivek Pandya在一份报告中表示。\n\n高盛资产管理预计脱欧影响将迫使英国央行率先其他央行加息\n高盛资产管理表示，由英国脱欧引起的劳动力短缺可能意味着英国央行会比其他主要央行更早加息。\n该机构做空英国国债，预计英国央行将于下月加息，到2022年6月前再进一步加息两次。该机构还做空英镑，因英国和欧盟之间的贸易可能进一步受到干扰。\n“英国脱欧的影响主要体现在劳动力供应方面，”高盛资产管理的全球固定收益投资组合经理Hugh Briscoe通过电邮表示。“虽说是全球性问题，但英国走出疫情之际，正在面临尤为严重的劳动力短缺。”\n“即使在我们认为所消化的未来一年货币紧缩程度过大的市场，我们也对增持敞口保持谨慎，因为随着我们逐步接近加息周期，波动性增强的空间有所放大，”Briscoe表示。“我们认为英国的曲线过于平坦，但是错位的情况短期之内可能会持续。”\n\n特斯拉在美国召回7600辆汽车：安全气囊存在隐患\n美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）宣布，特斯拉将在美国召回7600辆电动汽车，原因是司机的安全气囊缓冲在部署过程中可能会破裂。\nNHTSA称，驾驶员座位的安全气囊可能在展开时撕裂，导致无法在碰撞发生中充分保护驾驶员，并增加受伤的风险。\n文件显示显示，此次召回涉及部分2021年生产的Model X和Model S车型。\n今年2月，特斯拉曾宣布，将召回134951辆Model S和Model 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meh?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819782147","repostId":"1199074003","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199074003","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630077382,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199074003?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199074003","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,","content":"<p>Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,Coinbase&nbsp;and&nbsp;Paypal&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币股票在早盘交易中飙升。Bit Digital、Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain、SoS Ltd、Square、Coinbase和Paypal股价上涨1%至13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67735af69f95f6a88ee67ae3737e58c0\" tg-width=\"364\" tg-height=\"715\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-27 23:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,Coinbase&nbsp;and&nbsp;Paypal&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币股票在早盘交易中飙升。Bit Digital、Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain、SoS Ltd、Square、Coinbase和Paypal股价上涨1%至13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67735af69f95f6a88ee67ae3737e58c0\" tg-width=\"364\" tg-height=\"715\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MARA":"MARA Holdings","SOS":"SOS Limited","NCTY":"第九城市","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","CAN":"嘉楠科技","EBON":"亿邦国际"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199074003","content_text":"Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,Coinbase and Paypal climbed between 1% and 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MARA":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"BTCM":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"SOS":0.9,"RIOT":0.9,"NCTY":0.9,"BTBT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809047496,"gmtCreate":1627342167515,"gmtModify":1631884320457,"author":{"id":"3566551108294874","authorId":"3566551108294874","name":"TEOCK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45b7f270580058cc6d297d5caa692c2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566551108294874","idStr":"3566551108294874"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope it another good quarter","listText":"Hope it another good quarter","text":"Hope it another good quarter","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809047496","repostId":"1100647798","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100647798","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627313442,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100647798?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100647798","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple  for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as we","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares go into report near all-time high.</li>  <li>Estimates surge after two massive beats.</li>  <li>Timing of product launches will shift revenue picture.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价接近历史新高。</li><li>两次大幅上涨后，预估值飙升。</li><li>产品发布的时间将改变收入状况。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘后，我们将收到科技巨头苹果(AAPL)截至6月底的第三财季业绩。由于该公司前两个季度的收益报告超出了华尔街的预期，预期持续上升也就不足为奇了。随着最近几周股价上涨至历史新高，可能需要另一份强劲的报告来维持局面。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3&nbsp;current average estimate&nbsp;is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年上半年，苹果的收入平均每季度超出华尔街预期102.5亿美元。第三财季目前的平均预期为734.4亿美元，比去年同期增长23%以上。令人印象深刻的是，目前的平均水平在过去一年中增长了超过130亿美元。从底线来看，华尔街的目标是1.01美元，增长超过56%。在下表中，您可以看到过去两年第三季度的一些关键财务项目，今年同期的当前估计为黄色。除每股金额外，美元价值为数百万。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df8630a7ef0be70113aeac0d50265a57\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（*根据去年的拆分估算的数字。实际数字来自公司。资料来源：2020财年第三季度报告）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple is comingoff arguably&nbsp;its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the&nbsp;Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可以说是有史以来最好的季度。iPhone的收入同比增长超过65.5%，Mac增长超过70%，iPad增长近79%。第二财季整体收入增长近54%，因此这次我们预计这一数字的40%左右。别忘了，在第二季度电话会议上，管理层谈到6月份期间供应限制导致收入损失30亿至40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>我最好奇的是这一次iPhone的表现如何，因为5G超级周期似乎进展顺利。然而，今年，大多数人预计智能手机将回到通常的9月发布期，这意味着新手机收入将在第四财季再次产生。去年的冠状病毒推迟了上市，这意味着某些车型直到10月甚至11月才开始销售，这完全改变了苹果本财年的销售轨迹。今年的发布预计不会对电话线本身进行重大升级，因此需求趋势可能更多地取决于有多少消费者升级到5G，而不是转向iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.</p><p><blockquote>我相信分析师也将关注苹果如何应对芯片短缺和大宗商品价格飙升的问题。我认为我们不会看到第二季度产品毛利率增长575个基点的重演，但iPhone 12系列仍然应该会带来不错的同比增长。从长远来看，投资者将关注不断增长的服务利润率，以帮助提高整体毛利率，但不要忘记，业务的服务方面在运营方面有大量费用。</blockquote></p><p> For the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in&nbsp;a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.</p><p><blockquote>为了使股价保持高位，管理层需要证明在家工作和刺激资金的顺风仍在持续。正如我在上一篇文章中讨论的那样，看涨期权预计苹果2022年3月财年的季度收入将下降，因为该公司去年的收入水平非常高。虽然这可能会再次引发一些空头，但长期轨迹似乎仍然是积极的。目前估计看涨期权本财年的总收入为3550亿美元，苹果将在未来三年内再增加500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>我希望管理层利用本季度苹果股价疲软的机会进行回购。尽管该公司每三个月花费200亿美元左右，但这笔钱显然不会像125美元那样达到145美元。回购的股票越少意味着每股收益收益越少，长期股息提高也越低。好消息是，苹果的自由现金流即将达到每年1000亿美元，因此投资者无需担心资本回报会很快放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的主要问题是估值。上周股价是过去12个月市盈率的33.4倍。这基本上是几年前青少年人数的两倍，这在很大程度上得益于全球宽松货币政策。我目前162美元的目标价是基于2022年9月期间每股收益5.40美元的30倍。然而，这个数字是假设美联储和其他央行在明年大部分时间里将保持相当宽松的政策。如果我们比预期更早地开始大量缩减和/或加息，整个市场可能会感到一些痛苦，我看不出苹果会如何免受此影响。</blockquote></p><p> A strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的强劲报告很容易帮助股价升至历史新高。但只是为了唱反调一分钟，如果出现失望或“买入谣言，卖出新闻”的反应怎么办？嗯，股价远高于其关键移动平均线，如下图所示（紫色为50日，橙色为200日）。只要苹果能够守住短期趋势线，上涨的技术水平应该是支撑之一。该股已经能够在相当长一段时间内保持长期趋势线，因此我认为短期内的下跌幅度不会超过14%左右，除非市场出现重大回调。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc37ee144edb22fd36fcd15cf5fc3470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着本周财报的临近，人们对苹果的期望非常高。两个巨大的季度业绩超出了预期，该股最近创下了历史新高。市场将寻找iPhone超级周期仍在继续的迹象，而在家工作的顺风尚未消退。希望这种涨势能够持续下去的投资者需要看到一份强劲的报告，管理层希望为即将到来的秋季产品发布描绘一幅光明的销售图景。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 23:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares go into report near all-time high.</li>  <li>Estimates surge after two massive beats.</li>  <li>Timing of product launches will shift revenue picture.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价接近历史新高。</li><li>两次大幅上涨后，预估值飙升。</li><li>产品发布的时间将改变收入状况。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘后，我们将收到科技巨头苹果(AAPL)截至6月底的第三财季业绩。由于该公司前两个季度的收益报告超出了华尔街的预期，预期持续上升也就不足为奇了。随着最近几周股价上涨至历史新高，可能需要另一份强劲的报告来维持局面。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3&nbsp;current average estimate&nbsp;is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年上半年，苹果的收入平均每季度超出华尔街预期102.5亿美元。第三财季目前的平均预期为734.4亿美元，比去年同期增长23%以上。令人印象深刻的是，目前的平均水平在过去一年中增长了超过130亿美元。从底线来看，华尔街的目标是1.01美元，增长超过56%。在下表中，您可以看到过去两年第三季度的一些关键财务项目，今年同期的当前估计为黄色。除每股金额外，美元价值为数百万。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df8630a7ef0be70113aeac0d50265a57\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（*根据去年的拆分估算的数字。实际数字来自公司。资料来源：2020财年第三季度报告）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple is comingoff arguably&nbsp;its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the&nbsp;Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可以说是有史以来最好的季度。iPhone的收入同比增长超过65.5%，Mac增长超过70%，iPad增长近79%。第二财季整体收入增长近54%，因此这次我们预计这一数字的40%左右。别忘了，在第二季度电话会议上，管理层谈到6月份期间供应限制导致收入损失30亿至40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>我最好奇的是这一次iPhone的表现如何，因为5G超级周期似乎进展顺利。然而，今年，大多数人预计智能手机将回到通常的9月发布期，这意味着新手机收入将在第四财季再次产生。去年的冠状病毒推迟了上市，这意味着某些车型直到10月甚至11月才开始销售，这完全改变了苹果本财年的销售轨迹。今年的发布预计不会对电话线本身进行重大升级，因此需求趋势可能更多地取决于有多少消费者升级到5G，而不是转向iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.</p><p><blockquote>我相信分析师也将关注苹果如何应对芯片短缺和大宗商品价格飙升的问题。我认为我们不会看到第二季度产品毛利率增长575个基点的重演，但iPhone 12系列仍然应该会带来不错的同比增长。从长远来看，投资者将关注不断增长的服务利润率，以帮助提高整体毛利率，但不要忘记，业务的服务方面在运营方面有大量费用。</blockquote></p><p> For the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in&nbsp;a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.</p><p><blockquote>为了使股价保持高位，管理层需要证明在家工作和刺激资金的顺风仍在持续。正如我在上一篇文章中讨论的那样，看涨期权预计苹果2022年3月财年的季度收入将下降，因为该公司去年的收入水平非常高。虽然这可能会再次引发一些空头，但长期轨迹似乎仍然是积极的。目前估计看涨期权本财年的总收入为3550亿美元，苹果将在未来三年内再增加500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>我希望管理层利用本季度苹果股价疲软的机会进行回购。尽管该公司每三个月花费200亿美元左右，但这笔钱显然不会像125美元那样达到145美元。回购的股票越少意味着每股收益收益越少，长期股息提高也越低。好消息是，苹果的自由现金流即将达到每年1000亿美元，因此投资者无需担心资本回报会很快放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的主要问题是估值。上周股价是过去12个月市盈率的33.4倍。这基本上是几年前青少年人数的两倍，这在很大程度上得益于全球宽松货币政策。我目前162美元的目标价是基于2022年9月期间每股收益5.40美元的30倍。然而，这个数字是假设美联储和其他央行在明年大部分时间里将保持相当宽松的政策。如果我们比预期更早地开始大量缩减和/或加息，整个市场可能会感到一些痛苦，我看不出苹果会如何免受此影响。</blockquote></p><p> A strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的强劲报告很容易帮助股价升至历史新高。但只是为了唱反调一分钟，如果出现失望或“买入谣言，卖出新闻”的反应怎么办？嗯，股价远高于其关键移动平均线，如下图所示（紫色为50日，橙色为200日）。只要苹果能够守住短期趋势线，上涨的技术水平应该是支撑之一。该股已经能够在相当长一段时间内保持长期趋势线，因此我认为短期内的下跌幅度不会超过14%左右，除非市场出现重大回调。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc37ee144edb22fd36fcd15cf5fc3470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着本周财报的临近，人们对苹果的期望非常高。两个巨大的季度业绩超出了预期，该股最近创下了历史新高。市场将寻找iPhone超级周期仍在继续的迹象，而在家工作的顺风尚未消退。希望这种涨势能够持续下去的投资者需要看到一份强劲的报告，管理层希望为即将到来的秋季产品发布描绘一幅光明的销售图景。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441375-apple-earnings-face-high-expectations\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441375-apple-earnings-face-high-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100647798","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares go into report near all-time high.\nEstimates surge after two massive beats.\nTiming of product launches will shift revenue picture.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAfter the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.\nFor the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3 current average estimate is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.\n(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)\nApple is comingoff arguably its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.\nI'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.\nI'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.\nFor the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.\nI hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.\nThe major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.\nA strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nIn the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":828984064,"gmtCreate":1633833180046,"gmtModify":1633833203493,"author":{"id":"3566551108294874","authorId":"3566551108294874","name":"TEOCK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45b7f270580058cc6d297d5caa692c2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566551108294874","idStr":"3566551108294874"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C2PU.SI\">$PARKWAYLIFE REIT(C2PU.SI)$</a>Can buy for long term investment?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C2PU.SI\">$PARKWAYLIFE REIT(C2PU.SI)$</a>Can buy for long term investment?","text":"$PARKWAYLIFE REIT(C2PU.SI)$Can buy for long term investment?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b21863c9ab88d499e924254a65ff403","width":"1125","height":"2321"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828984064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":890250700,"gmtCreate":1628121127600,"gmtModify":1633753473373,"author":{"id":"3566551108294874","authorId":"3566551108294874","name":"TEOCK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45b7f270580058cc6d297d5caa692c2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566551108294874","idStr":"3566551108294874"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890250700","repostId":"2157488120","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807603511,"gmtCreate":1628033090733,"gmtModify":1633754306894,"author":{"id":"3566551108294874","authorId":"3566551108294874","name":"TEOCK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45b7f270580058cc6d297d5caa692c2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566551108294874","idStr":"3566551108294874"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807603511","repostId":"2156312793","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":607016599,"gmtCreate":1639456761152,"gmtModify":1639456761253,"author":{"id":"3566551108294874","authorId":"3566551108294874","name":"TEOCK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45b7f270580058cc6d297d5caa692c2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566551108294874","idStr":"3566551108294874"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said","listText":"Well said","text":"Well said","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607016599","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":802002883,"gmtCreate":1627697365642,"gmtModify":1633757028776,"author":{"id":"3566551108294874","authorId":"3566551108294874","name":"TEOCK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45b7f270580058cc6d297d5caa692c2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566551108294874","idStr":"3566551108294874"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good time to sell?","listText":"Good time to sell?","text":"Good time to sell?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802002883","repostId":"1172839147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":876107690,"gmtCreate":1637279182154,"gmtModify":1637279182154,"author":{"id":"3566551108294874","authorId":"3566551108294874","name":"TEOCK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45b7f270580058cc6d297d5caa692c2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566551108294874","idStr":"3566551108294874"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another possibility for rise?","listText":"Another possibility for rise?","text":"Another possibility for rise?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876107690","repostId":"2184889253","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2184889253","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1637271832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2184889253?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 05:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条：苹果汽车最快四年后问世！据称瞄准全自动驾驶","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2184889253","media":"新浪美股","summary":"　　亿万富翁对冲基金投资者阿克曼周四表示，美联储的超宽松货币政策创造了“经典泡沫”，他认为美联储将需要更快地收紧政策以对抗通胀。　　“我们正处于由美联储推动的典型泡沫中，”冲基金潘兴广场资本管理公司创始人兼CEO阿克曼表示。　　最新数据显示，美国10月份消费者价格飙升6.2%，创下1990年11月以来最高点。　　阿克曼表示，通胀是他的对冲基金今年面临的最大风险，并预计美联储将不得不很快加息。","content":"<p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>1、阿克曼：美国面临美联储宽松货币政策助长的“经典泡沫”</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>着眼攻克行业难关推出全自动驾驶汽车 据悉近期突破关键里程碑</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>3、比尔·盖茨：明年新冠肺炎死亡率和感染率将低于流感</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>4、美国通胀大潮波及网上购物 曾经的折扣天堂也难以幸免</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>资产管理预计脱欧影响将迫使英国央行率先其他央行加息</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在美国召回7600辆汽车：安全气囊存在隐患</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd1ef87596fa868755d2ee411181f5d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>阿克曼：美国面临美联储宽松货币政策助长的“经典泡沫”</b></p>\n<p>亿万富翁对冲基金投资者阿克曼（William Ackman）周四表示，美联储的超宽松货币政策创造了“经典泡沫”，他认为美联储将需要更快地收紧政策以对抗通胀。</p>\n<p>“我们正处于由美联储推动的典型泡沫中，”冲基金潘兴广场资本管理公司（Pershing Square Capital Management）创始人兼CEO阿克曼表示。</p>\n<p>最新数据显示，美国10月份消费者价格飙升6.2%，创下1990年11月以来最高点。</p>\n<p>“每个指标都在闪烁红色警报，”阿克曼说，他提到了房地产、艺术品市场和股票市场的价格飙升。</p>\n<p>阿克曼表示，通胀是他的对冲基金今年面临的最大风险，并预计美联储将不得不很快加息。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca6c287884e368a1cc9cd335422dc690\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>着眼攻克行业难关推出全自动驾驶汽车 据悉近期突破关键里程碑</b></p>\n<p>知情人士透露，苹果公司力争加快电动汽车研发速度，重新将项目重点放到全自动驾驶能力方面，致力于解决困扰整个汽车产业的技术挑战。</p>\n<p>过去几年，苹果公司的汽车团队一并探索了两条路径：研发一款拥有有限自动驾驶能力的车型，专注于转向和加速，与目前许多汽车相仿；亦或是打造一款配备全自动驾驶能力的车型，无需人类参与。</p>\n<p>在新的带头人--苹果手表软件主管Kevin Lynch--的领导下，现在工程师们重点关注第二条路径。知情人士称，Lynch希望首款车型配备全自动驾驶系统。因此事未公开，知情人士要求匿名。</p>\n<p>苹果内部设定的目标是在四年内推出自动驾驶汽车，比今年早些时候一些工程师所计划的五至七年更快。但是时间无法确定，能否实现2025年推出汽车的目标取决于公司是否有能力完成自动驾驶系统，而这是一项艰巨的任务。如果苹果无法实现目标，可能推迟发布，或是先发布一款技术能力较弱的车型。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64b864f042b5359a9029960976c33ac2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>比尔·盖茨：明年新冠肺炎死亡率和感染率将低于流感</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>联合创始人比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）称，在不出现新变种的前提下，到明年年中，新冠肺炎导致的死亡率和感染率可能会降至低于流感的水平。</p>\n<p>盖茨在新加坡参加一场经济论坛时表示，在自然免疫和疫苗免疫，以及新兴的口服疗法的帮助下，新冠肺炎导致的死亡率和发病率应该会大幅下降。</p>\n<p>盖茨还称，明年全球接种新冠肺炎疫苗的限制将发生变化，因为供应问题即将得到解决，取而代之的是物流问题，即如何分发所有的疫苗。</p>\n<p>盖茨在接受采访时表示：“疫苗方面是一个非常好的消息，到明年年中，供应限制将在很大程度上得到解决。之后，我们将面临物流和需求方面的问题。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39b92b302433d3983c63c9084806a3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>美国通胀大潮波及网上购物 曾经的折扣天堂也难以幸免</b></p>\n<p>随着美国经济从疫情中复苏，曾经是折扣和便宜商品天堂的电子商务却已成为稳定的通胀来源。</p>\n<p>根据软件公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>&nbsp;Inc．的数据，10月在线物价同比上涨1.9%，环比上涨0.9%。这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>数字物价指数连续第17个月上涨，此前则连跌超过六年。</p>\n<p>假日购物季开始时——零售商通常这个时候会打折以促进销售——出现物价上涨是美国通胀有多普遍的另一个迹象。</p>\n<p>Adobe预计，这个假日季消费者每4美元中就会有1美元花在网上。</p>\n<p>“随着电子商务在整体零售中占据更大的份额，这种定价趋势已成为更重要的对消费者的净影响指标，”Adobe分析师Vivek Pandya在一份报告中表示。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c4a5914832b0f619a1eda4378ebc7e3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>资产管理预计脱欧影响将迫使英国央行率先其他央行加息</b></p>\n<p>高盛资产管理表示，由英国脱欧引起的劳动力短缺可能意味着英国央行会比其他主要央行更早加息。</p>\n<p>该机构做空英国国债，预计英国央行将于下月加息，到2022年6月前再进一步加息两次。该机构还做空英镑，因英国和欧盟之间的贸易可能进一步受到干扰。</p>\n<p>“英国脱欧的影响主要体现在劳动力供应方面，”高盛资产管理的全球固定收益投资组合经理Hugh <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGP.AU\">Briscoe</a>通过电邮表示。“虽说是全球性问题，但英国走出疫情之际，正在面临尤为严重的劳动力短缺。”</p>\n<p>“即使在我们认为所消化的未来一年货币紧缩程度过大的市场，我们也对增持敞口保持谨慎，因为随着我们逐步接近加息周期，波动性增强的空间有所放大，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGP.AU\">Briscoe</a>表示。“我们认为英国的曲线过于平坦，但是错位的情况短期之内可能会持续。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b06f80a7c76e9762dfb27a01c005063\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在美国召回7600辆汽车：安全气囊存在隐患</b></p>\n<p>美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）宣布，特斯拉将在美国召回7600辆电动汽车，原因是司机的安全气囊缓冲在部署过程中可能会破裂。</p>\n<p>NHTSA称，驾驶员座位的安全气囊可能在展开时撕裂，导致无法在碰撞发生中充分保护驾驶员，并增加受伤的风险。</p>\n<p>文件显示显示，此次召回涉及部分2021年生产的Model X和Model S车型。</p>\n<p>今年2月，特斯拉曾宣布，将召回134951辆Model S和Model X电动汽车。这些车辆的触摸屏系统存在问题，可能导致摄像头图像消失，挡风玻璃除雾和除霜系统失灵，从而降低司机在恶劣天气下的能见度。</p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外媒头条：苹果汽车最快四年后问世！据称瞄准全自动驾驶</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条：苹果汽车最快四年后问世！据称瞄准全自动驾驶\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-19 05:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-19/doc-iktzscyy6409060.shtml><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、阿克曼：美国面临美联储宽松货币政策助长的“经典泡沫”\n\n\n2、苹果着眼攻克行业难关推出全自动驾驶汽车 据悉近期突破关键里程碑\n\n\n3、比尔·盖茨：明年新冠肺炎死亡率和感染率将低于流感\n\n\n4、美国通胀大潮波及网上购物 曾经的折扣天堂也难以幸免\n\n\n5、高盛资产管理预计脱欧影响将迫使英国央行率先其他央行加息\n\n\n6、特斯拉在美国召回7600辆汽车...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-19/doc-iktzscyy6409060.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd1ef87596fa868755d2ee411181f5d","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-19/doc-iktzscyy6409060.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2184889253","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、阿克曼：美国面临美联储宽松货币政策助长的“经典泡沫”\n\n\n2、苹果着眼攻克行业难关推出全自动驾驶汽车 据悉近期突破关键里程碑\n\n\n3、比尔·盖茨：明年新冠肺炎死亡率和感染率将低于流感\n\n\n4、美国通胀大潮波及网上购物 曾经的折扣天堂也难以幸免\n\n\n5、高盛资产管理预计脱欧影响将迫使英国央行率先其他央行加息\n\n\n6、特斯拉在美国召回7600辆汽车：安全气囊存在隐患\n\n\n阿克曼：美国面临美联储宽松货币政策助长的“经典泡沫”\n亿万富翁对冲基金投资者阿克曼（William Ackman）周四表示，美联储的超宽松货币政策创造了“经典泡沫”，他认为美联储将需要更快地收紧政策以对抗通胀。\n“我们正处于由美联储推动的典型泡沫中，”冲基金潘兴广场资本管理公司（Pershing Square Capital Management）创始人兼CEO阿克曼表示。\n最新数据显示，美国10月份消费者价格飙升6.2%，创下1990年11月以来最高点。\n“每个指标都在闪烁红色警报，”阿克曼说，他提到了房地产、艺术品市场和股票市场的价格飙升。\n阿克曼表示，通胀是他的对冲基金今年面临的最大风险，并预计美联储将不得不很快加息。\n\n苹果着眼攻克行业难关推出全自动驾驶汽车 据悉近期突破关键里程碑\n知情人士透露，苹果公司力争加快电动汽车研发速度，重新将项目重点放到全自动驾驶能力方面，致力于解决困扰整个汽车产业的技术挑战。\n过去几年，苹果公司的汽车团队一并探索了两条路径：研发一款拥有有限自动驾驶能力的车型，专注于转向和加速，与目前许多汽车相仿；亦或是打造一款配备全自动驾驶能力的车型，无需人类参与。\n在新的带头人--苹果手表软件主管Kevin Lynch--的领导下，现在工程师们重点关注第二条路径。知情人士称，Lynch希望首款车型配备全自动驾驶系统。因此事未公开，知情人士要求匿名。\n苹果内部设定的目标是在四年内推出自动驾驶汽车，比今年早些时候一些工程师所计划的五至七年更快。但是时间无法确定，能否实现2025年推出汽车的目标取决于公司是否有能力完成自动驾驶系统，而这是一项艰巨的任务。如果苹果无法实现目标，可能推迟发布，或是先发布一款技术能力较弱的车型。\n\n比尔·盖茨：明年新冠肺炎死亡率和感染率将低于流感\n微软联合创始人比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）称，在不出现新变种的前提下，到明年年中，新冠肺炎导致的死亡率和感染率可能会降至低于流感的水平。\n盖茨在新加坡参加一场经济论坛时表示，在自然免疫和疫苗免疫，以及新兴的口服疗法的帮助下，新冠肺炎导致的死亡率和发病率应该会大幅下降。\n盖茨还称，明年全球接种新冠肺炎疫苗的限制将发生变化，因为供应问题即将得到解决，取而代之的是物流问题，即如何分发所有的疫苗。\n盖茨在接受采访时表示：“疫苗方面是一个非常好的消息，到明年年中，供应限制将在很大程度上得到解决。之后，我们将面临物流和需求方面的问题。”\n\n美国通胀大潮波及网上购物 曾经的折扣天堂也难以幸免\n随着美国经济从疫情中复苏，曾经是折扣和便宜商品天堂的电子商务却已成为稳定的通胀来源。\n根据软件公司Adobe Inc．的数据，10月在线物价同比上涨1.9%，环比上涨0.9%。这是Adobe数字物价指数连续第17个月上涨，此前则连跌超过六年。\n假日购物季开始时——零售商通常这个时候会打折以促进销售——出现物价上涨是美国通胀有多普遍的另一个迹象。\nAdobe预计，这个假日季消费者每4美元中就会有1美元花在网上。\n“随着电子商务在整体零售中占据更大的份额，这种定价趋势已成为更重要的对消费者的净影响指标，”Adobe分析师Vivek Pandya在一份报告中表示。\n\n高盛资产管理预计脱欧影响将迫使英国央行率先其他央行加息\n高盛资产管理表示，由英国脱欧引起的劳动力短缺可能意味着英国央行会比其他主要央行更早加息。\n该机构做空英国国债，预计英国央行将于下月加息，到2022年6月前再进一步加息两次。该机构还做空英镑，因英国和欧盟之间的贸易可能进一步受到干扰。\n“英国脱欧的影响主要体现在劳动力供应方面，”高盛资产管理的全球固定收益投资组合经理Hugh Briscoe通过电邮表示。“虽说是全球性问题，但英国走出疫情之际，正在面临尤为严重的劳动力短缺。”\n“即使在我们认为所消化的未来一年货币紧缩程度过大的市场，我们也对增持敞口保持谨慎，因为随着我们逐步接近加息周期，波动性增强的空间有所放大，”Briscoe表示。“我们认为英国的曲线过于平坦，但是错位的情况短期之内可能会持续。”\n\n特斯拉在美国召回7600辆汽车：安全气囊存在隐患\n美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）宣布，特斯拉将在美国召回7600辆电动汽车，原因是司机的安全气囊缓冲在部署过程中可能会破裂。\nNHTSA称，驾驶员座位的安全气囊可能在展开时撕裂，导致无法在碰撞发生中充分保护驾驶员，并增加受伤的风险。\n文件显示显示，此次召回涉及部分2021年生产的Model X和Model S车型。\n今年2月，特斯拉曾宣布，将召回134951辆Model S和Model X电动汽车。这些车辆的触摸屏系统存在问题，可能导致摄像头图像消失，挡风玻璃除雾和除霜系统失灵，从而降低司机在恶劣天气下的能见度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826101628,"gmtCreate":1633995061257,"gmtModify":1633995061257,"author":{"id":"3566551108294874","authorId":"3566551108294874","name":"TEOCK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45b7f270580058cc6d297d5caa692c2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566551108294874","idStr":"3566551108294874"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T82U.SI\">$SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(T82U.SI)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T82U.SI\">$SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(T82U.SI)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"$SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(T82U.SI)$[Smile]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e476435f19bffd601de4a785361bfd9","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826101628","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861364380,"gmtCreate":1632459465440,"gmtModify":1632465099006,"author":{"id":"3566551108294874","authorId":"3566551108294874","name":"TEOCK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45b7f270580058cc6d297d5caa692c2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566551108294874","idStr":"3566551108294874"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bitcoin is a bit risky investment, unlike gold where you can visualise the actual thing.","listText":"Bitcoin is a bit risky investment, unlike gold where you can visualise the actual thing.","text":"Bitcoin is a bit risky 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