+关注
DANNY韩_1303
暂无个人介绍
IP属地:海外
7
关注
0
粉丝
2
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
DANNY韩_1303
2022-12-09
曙光来了
@小虎AV:12月7日,进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布,再次放宽出行层面的管控要求,#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后,携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%,其中,春节前夕(腊月二十五-除夕)的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。$携程网(TCOM)$ $携程集团—S(09961)$ $美团-W(03690)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$
DANNY韩_1303
2022-12-02
应该跌
@交易员Owen:美元还会继续下跌吗?原油的涨跌和美元有什么关系呢?
DANNY韩_1303
2021-03-24
打着吗加油
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":3565475113221233,"uuid":"3565475113221233","gmtCreate":1603087816318,"gmtModify":1606011070447,"name":"DANNY韩_1303","pinyin":"dannyh1303dannyhan1303","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f06edbb52f7ae30945e6fc77bbf3078","hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","hatId":"ca_profile_frame_DWr5S1","hatName":"","vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":7,"tweetSize":4,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖(非转发)","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":2,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.16","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.03.25","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.02.28","exceedPercentage":"60.03%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"location":"海外","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":629240755,"gmtCreate":1670568862477,"gmtModify":1670568864085,"author":{"id":"3565475113221233","authorId":"3565475113221233","name":"DANNY韩_1303","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f06edbb52f7ae30945e6fc77bbf3078","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"曙光来了","listText":"曙光来了","text":"曙光来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629240755","repostId":"629836510","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":629836510,"gmtCreate":1670399383530,"gmtModify":1670399402681,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162e12f8dcec770ec19f66f2abb0d5db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"春节前夕机票搜索量暴涨至三年巅峰","htmlText":"\n \n \n 12月7日,进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布,再次放宽出行层面的管控要求,#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后,携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%,其中,春节前夕(腊月二十五-除夕)的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09961\">$携程集团—S(09961)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>\n \n","listText":"12月7日,进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布,再次放宽出行层面的管控要求,#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后,携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%,其中,春节前夕(腊月二十五-除夕)的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09961\">$携程集团—S(09961)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>","text":"12月7日,进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布,再次放宽出行层面的管控要求,#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后,携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%,其中,春节前夕(腊月二十五-除夕)的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。$携程网(TCOM)$ $携程集团—S(09961)$ $美团-W(03690)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629836510","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"82d83686dc374796bd3e251455c2110c","tweetId":"629836510","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/e032cee0243791576922868327/BeFvwO3hNjgA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef79db0cd7025bb5589ba1f8b5aed4e6"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":620716206,"gmtCreate":1669972006805,"gmtModify":1669972944609,"author":{"id":"3565475113221233","authorId":"3565475113221233","name":"DANNY韩_1303","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f06edbb52f7ae30945e6fc77bbf3078","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"应该跌","listText":"应该跌","text":"应该跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620716206","repostId":"667727832","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667727832,"gmtCreate":1669172651426,"gmtModify":1669172802579,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"美元还会继续下跌吗?原油的涨跌和美元有什么关系呢?","htmlText":"今天简单聊聊一个诡异的情况:有人突然押注了美元的持续下跌。是的,你没有看错,尽管美元指数已经在106上下的点位企稳反弹,但大量的交易者已经认为美元的跌幅很可能并不止于此处,他们似乎在押注着这样一个剧本:一轮更大的美元抛盘将随时展开,美元指数的走势上,将出现头肩顶的典型形态,从而反转向下。从最新的CFTC持仓数据上看,资管盘在美元空头上的加码出现了罕见的跳涨,这让截止上周的资管盘空头头寸来到了近两年来的新高而从历史走势上看,每到这样一个空头押注出现的时候,美元要么是直接向下探底,要么是大幅反弹后再掉头向下,很少有持续上行的情况。如果你认为资管盘上的空头可能是对冲策略的需要,那么来看看非商业头寸和投机盘的押注:截止上周11月15日,非商业和投机盘的头寸已经从之前几个月的大幅看多,突然转变为中性,对美元的看多头寸削减到了0轴附近。这绝对不是巧合,但如果还有人认为CFTC的数据有着延迟效应而并不足以反应事实真相的话,那么看看这个:就在本周一开盘,冷僻的隔夜利率期货期权市场上,美国银行系统内,国债抵押隔夜回购利率sofr的2023年的9月期货上,有人突然大笔押注sofr的利率将回到2%.根据一家美国本土券商Bollingbroke公布的数据,这笔押注的保费约为 450 万美元,目标是期权到期前的保单利率约为 2%;但离奇是,同期的美国掉期市场上预示出的利率却在4.9%,两者相差了近300个基点。这让整个利率期货市场对未来的美联储加息路径的价格结构发生了诡异的变化:从图上的预测可以看出,到明年9月份,美联储在加息到5%以上后,甚至有可能突然降息?如果说CFTC的数据还有可能因为滞后而出现时效性的参照误差,那么结合利率期货期权的大笔押注,这个看空意义就不能不引起足够的重视了。而且从CFTC的最新数据上看,资管盘除了增加了美元空头头寸外,还削减了日元和英镑的净空头,增加了对欧元的看涨押注。","listText":"今天简单聊聊一个诡异的情况:有人突然押注了美元的持续下跌。是的,你没有看错,尽管美元指数已经在106上下的点位企稳反弹,但大量的交易者已经认为美元的跌幅很可能并不止于此处,他们似乎在押注着这样一个剧本:一轮更大的美元抛盘将随时展开,美元指数的走势上,将出现头肩顶的典型形态,从而反转向下。从最新的CFTC持仓数据上看,资管盘在美元空头上的加码出现了罕见的跳涨,这让截止上周的资管盘空头头寸来到了近两年来的新高而从历史走势上看,每到这样一个空头押注出现的时候,美元要么是直接向下探底,要么是大幅反弹后再掉头向下,很少有持续上行的情况。如果你认为资管盘上的空头可能是对冲策略的需要,那么来看看非商业头寸和投机盘的押注:截止上周11月15日,非商业和投机盘的头寸已经从之前几个月的大幅看多,突然转变为中性,对美元的看多头寸削减到了0轴附近。这绝对不是巧合,但如果还有人认为CFTC的数据有着延迟效应而并不足以反应事实真相的话,那么看看这个:就在本周一开盘,冷僻的隔夜利率期货期权市场上,美国银行系统内,国债抵押隔夜回购利率sofr的2023年的9月期货上,有人突然大笔押注sofr的利率将回到2%.根据一家美国本土券商Bollingbroke公布的数据,这笔押注的保费约为 450 万美元,目标是期权到期前的保单利率约为 2%;但离奇是,同期的美国掉期市场上预示出的利率却在4.9%,两者相差了近300个基点。这让整个利率期货市场对未来的美联储加息路径的价格结构发生了诡异的变化:从图上的预测可以看出,到明年9月份,美联储在加息到5%以上后,甚至有可能突然降息?如果说CFTC的数据还有可能因为滞后而出现时效性的参照误差,那么结合利率期货期权的大笔押注,这个看空意义就不能不引起足够的重视了。而且从CFTC的最新数据上看,资管盘除了增加了美元空头头寸外,还削减了日元和英镑的净空头,增加了对欧元的看涨押注。","text":"今天简单聊聊一个诡异的情况:有人突然押注了美元的持续下跌。是的,你没有看错,尽管美元指数已经在106上下的点位企稳反弹,但大量的交易者已经认为美元的跌幅很可能并不止于此处,他们似乎在押注着这样一个剧本:一轮更大的美元抛盘将随时展开,美元指数的走势上,将出现头肩顶的典型形态,从而反转向下。从最新的CFTC持仓数据上看,资管盘在美元空头上的加码出现了罕见的跳涨,这让截止上周的资管盘空头头寸来到了近两年来的新高而从历史走势上看,每到这样一个空头押注出现的时候,美元要么是直接向下探底,要么是大幅反弹后再掉头向下,很少有持续上行的情况。如果你认为资管盘上的空头可能是对冲策略的需要,那么来看看非商业头寸和投机盘的押注:截止上周11月15日,非商业和投机盘的头寸已经从之前几个月的大幅看多,突然转变为中性,对美元的看多头寸削减到了0轴附近。这绝对不是巧合,但如果还有人认为CFTC的数据有着延迟效应而并不足以反应事实真相的话,那么看看这个:就在本周一开盘,冷僻的隔夜利率期货期权市场上,美国银行系统内,国债抵押隔夜回购利率sofr的2023年的9月期货上,有人突然大笔押注sofr的利率将回到2%.根据一家美国本土券商Bollingbroke公布的数据,这笔押注的保费约为 450 万美元,目标是期权到期前的保单利率约为 2%;但离奇是,同期的美国掉期市场上预示出的利率却在4.9%,两者相差了近300个基点。这让整个利率期货市场对未来的美联储加息路径的价格结构发生了诡异的变化:从图上的预测可以看出,到明年9月份,美联储在加息到5%以上后,甚至有可能突然降息?如果说CFTC的数据还有可能因为滞后而出现时效性的参照误差,那么结合利率期货期权的大笔押注,这个看空意义就不能不引起足够的重视了。而且从CFTC的最新数据上看,资管盘除了增加了美元空头头寸外,还削减了日元和英镑的净空头,增加了对欧元的看涨押注。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f01f5e1b95007fe973a9a31aa29d279","width":"1030","height":"135"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dcd29b0d7dcd28329d9a3313f04a811","width":"1080","height":"470"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07bb9bfbb3af4c86846ee7bc050d292b","width":"929","height":"579"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667727832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":17,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351351922,"gmtCreate":1616567928066,"gmtModify":1616567928066,"author":{"id":"3565475113221233","authorId":"3565475113221233","name":"DANNY韩_1303","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f06edbb52f7ae30945e6fc77bbf3078","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"打着吗加油","listText":"打着吗加油","text":"打着吗加油","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/480a5615d9e985bf5230f58a9dc33603","width":"1125","height":"1104"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351351922","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":629240755,"gmtCreate":1670568862477,"gmtModify":1670568864085,"author":{"id":"3565475113221233","authorId":"3565475113221233","name":"DANNY韩_1303","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f06edbb52f7ae30945e6fc77bbf3078","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"曙光来了","listText":"曙光来了","text":"曙光来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629240755","repostId":"629836510","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":629836510,"gmtCreate":1670399383530,"gmtModify":1670399402681,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162e12f8dcec770ec19f66f2abb0d5db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"春节前夕机票搜索量暴涨至三年巅峰","htmlText":"\n \n \n 12月7日,进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布,再次放宽出行层面的管控要求,#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后,携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%,其中,春节前夕(腊月二十五-除夕)的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09961\">$携程集团—S(09961)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>\n \n","listText":"12月7日,进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布,再次放宽出行层面的管控要求,#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后,携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%,其中,春节前夕(腊月二十五-除夕)的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09961\">$携程集团—S(09961)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>","text":"12月7日,进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布,再次放宽出行层面的管控要求,#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后,携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%,其中,春节前夕(腊月二十五-除夕)的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。$携程网(TCOM)$ $携程集团—S(09961)$ $美团-W(03690)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629836510","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"82d83686dc374796bd3e251455c2110c","tweetId":"629836510","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/e032cee0243791576922868327/BeFvwO3hNjgA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef79db0cd7025bb5589ba1f8b5aed4e6"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":620716206,"gmtCreate":1669972006805,"gmtModify":1669972944609,"author":{"id":"3565475113221233","authorId":"3565475113221233","name":"DANNY韩_1303","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f06edbb52f7ae30945e6fc77bbf3078","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"应该跌","listText":"应该跌","text":"应该跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620716206","repostId":"667727832","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667727832,"gmtCreate":1669172651426,"gmtModify":1669172802579,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"美元还会继续下跌吗?原油的涨跌和美元有什么关系呢?","htmlText":"今天简单聊聊一个诡异的情况:有人突然押注了美元的持续下跌。是的,你没有看错,尽管美元指数已经在106上下的点位企稳反弹,但大量的交易者已经认为美元的跌幅很可能并不止于此处,他们似乎在押注着这样一个剧本:一轮更大的美元抛盘将随时展开,美元指数的走势上,将出现头肩顶的典型形态,从而反转向下。从最新的CFTC持仓数据上看,资管盘在美元空头上的加码出现了罕见的跳涨,这让截止上周的资管盘空头头寸来到了近两年来的新高而从历史走势上看,每到这样一个空头押注出现的时候,美元要么是直接向下探底,要么是大幅反弹后再掉头向下,很少有持续上行的情况。如果你认为资管盘上的空头可能是对冲策略的需要,那么来看看非商业头寸和投机盘的押注:截止上周11月15日,非商业和投机盘的头寸已经从之前几个月的大幅看多,突然转变为中性,对美元的看多头寸削减到了0轴附近。这绝对不是巧合,但如果还有人认为CFTC的数据有着延迟效应而并不足以反应事实真相的话,那么看看这个:就在本周一开盘,冷僻的隔夜利率期货期权市场上,美国银行系统内,国债抵押隔夜回购利率sofr的2023年的9月期货上,有人突然大笔押注sofr的利率将回到2%.根据一家美国本土券商Bollingbroke公布的数据,这笔押注的保费约为 450 万美元,目标是期权到期前的保单利率约为 2%;但离奇是,同期的美国掉期市场上预示出的利率却在4.9%,两者相差了近300个基点。这让整个利率期货市场对未来的美联储加息路径的价格结构发生了诡异的变化:从图上的预测可以看出,到明年9月份,美联储在加息到5%以上后,甚至有可能突然降息?如果说CFTC的数据还有可能因为滞后而出现时效性的参照误差,那么结合利率期货期权的大笔押注,这个看空意义就不能不引起足够的重视了。而且从CFTC的最新数据上看,资管盘除了增加了美元空头头寸外,还削减了日元和英镑的净空头,增加了对欧元的看涨押注。","listText":"今天简单聊聊一个诡异的情况:有人突然押注了美元的持续下跌。是的,你没有看错,尽管美元指数已经在106上下的点位企稳反弹,但大量的交易者已经认为美元的跌幅很可能并不止于此处,他们似乎在押注着这样一个剧本:一轮更大的美元抛盘将随时展开,美元指数的走势上,将出现头肩顶的典型形态,从而反转向下。从最新的CFTC持仓数据上看,资管盘在美元空头上的加码出现了罕见的跳涨,这让截止上周的资管盘空头头寸来到了近两年来的新高而从历史走势上看,每到这样一个空头押注出现的时候,美元要么是直接向下探底,要么是大幅反弹后再掉头向下,很少有持续上行的情况。如果你认为资管盘上的空头可能是对冲策略的需要,那么来看看非商业头寸和投机盘的押注:截止上周11月15日,非商业和投机盘的头寸已经从之前几个月的大幅看多,突然转变为中性,对美元的看多头寸削减到了0轴附近。这绝对不是巧合,但如果还有人认为CFTC的数据有着延迟效应而并不足以反应事实真相的话,那么看看这个:就在本周一开盘,冷僻的隔夜利率期货期权市场上,美国银行系统内,国债抵押隔夜回购利率sofr的2023年的9月期货上,有人突然大笔押注sofr的利率将回到2%.根据一家美国本土券商Bollingbroke公布的数据,这笔押注的保费约为 450 万美元,目标是期权到期前的保单利率约为 2%;但离奇是,同期的美国掉期市场上预示出的利率却在4.9%,两者相差了近300个基点。这让整个利率期货市场对未来的美联储加息路径的价格结构发生了诡异的变化:从图上的预测可以看出,到明年9月份,美联储在加息到5%以上后,甚至有可能突然降息?如果说CFTC的数据还有可能因为滞后而出现时效性的参照误差,那么结合利率期货期权的大笔押注,这个看空意义就不能不引起足够的重视了。而且从CFTC的最新数据上看,资管盘除了增加了美元空头头寸外,还削减了日元和英镑的净空头,增加了对欧元的看涨押注。","text":"今天简单聊聊一个诡异的情况:有人突然押注了美元的持续下跌。是的,你没有看错,尽管美元指数已经在106上下的点位企稳反弹,但大量的交易者已经认为美元的跌幅很可能并不止于此处,他们似乎在押注着这样一个剧本:一轮更大的美元抛盘将随时展开,美元指数的走势上,将出现头肩顶的典型形态,从而反转向下。从最新的CFTC持仓数据上看,资管盘在美元空头上的加码出现了罕见的跳涨,这让截止上周的资管盘空头头寸来到了近两年来的新高而从历史走势上看,每到这样一个空头押注出现的时候,美元要么是直接向下探底,要么是大幅反弹后再掉头向下,很少有持续上行的情况。如果你认为资管盘上的空头可能是对冲策略的需要,那么来看看非商业头寸和投机盘的押注:截止上周11月15日,非商业和投机盘的头寸已经从之前几个月的大幅看多,突然转变为中性,对美元的看多头寸削减到了0轴附近。这绝对不是巧合,但如果还有人认为CFTC的数据有着延迟效应而并不足以反应事实真相的话,那么看看这个:就在本周一开盘,冷僻的隔夜利率期货期权市场上,美国银行系统内,国债抵押隔夜回购利率sofr的2023年的9月期货上,有人突然大笔押注sofr的利率将回到2%.根据一家美国本土券商Bollingbroke公布的数据,这笔押注的保费约为 450 万美元,目标是期权到期前的保单利率约为 2%;但离奇是,同期的美国掉期市场上预示出的利率却在4.9%,两者相差了近300个基点。这让整个利率期货市场对未来的美联储加息路径的价格结构发生了诡异的变化:从图上的预测可以看出,到明年9月份,美联储在加息到5%以上后,甚至有可能突然降息?如果说CFTC的数据还有可能因为滞后而出现时效性的参照误差,那么结合利率期货期权的大笔押注,这个看空意义就不能不引起足够的重视了。而且从CFTC的最新数据上看,资管盘除了增加了美元空头头寸外,还削减了日元和英镑的净空头,增加了对欧元的看涨押注。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f01f5e1b95007fe973a9a31aa29d279","width":"1030","height":"135"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dcd29b0d7dcd28329d9a3313f04a811","width":"1080","height":"470"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07bb9bfbb3af4c86846ee7bc050d292b","width":"929","height":"579"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667727832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":17,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351351922,"gmtCreate":1616567928066,"gmtModify":1616567928066,"author":{"id":"3565475113221233","authorId":"3565475113221233","name":"DANNY韩_1303","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f06edbb52f7ae30945e6fc77bbf3078","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"打着吗加油","listText":"打着吗加油","text":"打着吗加油","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/480a5615d9e985bf5230f58a9dc33603","width":"1125","height":"1104"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351351922","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}