锐信资本的个人主页 - 老虎社区

锐信资本

锐信资本

职业投资人，清华大学计算机硕士，美国伯克利HAAS商学院MBA，长江商学院 EMBA，CFA；如有问题咨询请私信。

IP属地：四川

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0勋章

12-17 23:26

又是甲骨文的小作文

又是甲骨文的小作文

12-17 23:22

又是甲骨文的小作文

又是甲骨文的小作文

12-17 01:22

美国马上要进入衰退？

美国马上要进入衰退？

12-16 22:46

美国11月的官方非农就业数据

美国11月的官方非农就业数据

12-16 14:21

本周美股的5大关键因数

本周美股的5大关键因数

12-15 18:36

全球债券市场的下跌和对风险资产的影响

全球债券市场的下跌和对风险资产的影响

12-14

11月社融数据给风险资产泼了冷水

11月社融数据给风险资产泼了冷水

12-13

昨天美股为什么大跌

昨天美股为什么大跌

12-12

大饼年底目标价更新

大饼年底目标价更新

12-12

大饼年底目标价更新

大饼年底目标价更新

12-11

降息不是重点， RMP才是

降息不是重点， RMP才是

12-11

我国11月经济数据开了个好头

我国11月经济数据开了个好头

12-11

市场总结与展望热点交流：一、时间：2025年12月14日晚20-21:30 二、形式：线上三、内容： 1.锐信财经本周三大核心投资思路拆解 1.1：美股和中概Q3财报和交易思路 1.2：圣诞行情的研判 1.3：金银，部分大宗和美债的短期操作 2.嘉宾分享: 2.1：分享主题 A股当前趋势研判和行业标的选择分享嘉宾：张先生：某大型险资投资经理，私董会会员邓先生：某个大型证券私募基金基金经理，私董会会员 3.群友交流围绕当前市场具确定性的机会进行深度交流与碰撞

12-09

关于明天美联储会议的重大期待

关于明天美联储会议的重大期待

12-08

2026年的黄金

2026年的黄金

12-07

下周美联储议息会议的看点

下周美联储议息会议的看点

12-06

美国就业市场真实的情况

美国就业市场真实的情况

12-05

美国通胀会反弹吗？

美国通胀会反弹吗？

12-04

市场总结与展望热点交流：一、时间：2025年12月07日晚20-21:30 二、形式：线上三、内容： 1.锐信财经本周三大核心投资思路拆解 1.1：美股和中概Q3财报和交易思路 1.2：圣诞行情的研判 1.3：大饼，贵金属和美债的短期操作 2.嘉宾分享: 2.1：分享主题大饼，二饼和加密市场的现状,未来趋势和交易思路分享嘉宾： Kevin：币圈大佬。香港加密持牌机构创始人/高管，职业投资人，私董会会员刘先生/Adam：全球最大加密期权交易所创始人，私董会会员 3.群友交流围绕当前市场具确定性的机会进行深度交流与碰撞

12-04

日本本次加息对美股A股的影响

日本本次加息对美股A股的影响

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\n \n  美股Q2季报（31）：SAAS公司投资逻辑以及Snowfalke的财报我的观点是在自己的美股投资组合里面或多或少应该配置一点SAAS的股票。原因有三个： 第一. 长期看AAS公司股价表现都不错的。 这是前20大美股SAAS公司上市至今的表现。 平均涨了13.7倍。中位数是涨了9.4倍。 如果看年化回报IRR的话平均46%，中位数39%。 远远高于大市也是最高回报的行业之一了。 SAAS公司股价波动是很大。不过要追求高回报的话配一点我觉得挺好。 第二. SAAS一般是订阅模式，现金流和收入可预测性好。 而且用的Land and Expandion 策略。就是先给客户提供一些小的但是粘性很强的软件服务，然后在客户在你的软件平台上用的越来越多，信任的越来越强。就会买你更多功能。你也更了解客户的需求。 这种战略下，除非出现一些颠覆性的技术或者事件。公司一般开头难做以后是雪球越滚越大。 所以能上市的公司基本都相对稳定，投资的风险也会小一点。 最后：绝大部分美国SAAS公司都是TOB的。在企业客户使用过程发现要么帮企业省钱了要么逐渐变成了企业运作不可缺少的基础设施。 这个特点就让SAAS公司比较不容受到经济周期的影响。这点从很多SAAS公司财报就看的出来。 前两天我给大家说过一个网络安全龙头SAAS公司派拓网络就是这样。这两天发财报的跨平台云服务的SAAS公司Snowflake也是这样。 收入增长83%，净客户留存率171%。这基本是SAAS公司的天花板了。 75%毛利还在提高。 现金流也不错。non-gaap的运营利润率从去年负数到现在正的4%了。 自由现金流利润率同比还提高了10个点。 完全也是看不出来经济下滑对其影响对吧. 也说明我一直视频里面强调美国数据中心，云相关业务现在的确很强。 当然Snowflake也不是没有缺点。最大的不好就是不便宜的。 SAAS公司一般估值都贵，Sn\n \n","listText":"美股Q2季报（31）：SAAS公司投资逻辑以及Snowfalke的财报我的观点是在自己的美股投资组合里面或多或少应该配置一点SAAS的股票。原因有三个： 第一. 长期看AAS公司股价表现都不错的。 这是前20大美股SAAS公司上市至今的表现。 平均涨了13.7倍。中位数是涨了9.4倍。 如果看年化回报IRR的话平均46%，中位数39%。 远远高于大市也是最高回报的行业之一了。 SAAS公司股价波动是很大。不过要追求高回报的话配一点我觉得挺好。 第二. 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\n \n  最近特斯拉股价大跌的原因： 马斯克贷款被爆仓补保证金 会员群朋友问我为什么特斯拉最近股价大跌。 这个和马斯克收购推特很有关系。 首先： 大家看他收购Twitter的资金结构。 费用利息加起来一共是465亿。 其中210亿是Equity股。 另外335亿是债。 债里面有125亿是马斯克哪自己特斯拉股票做抵押借的保证金贷款。 而这个钱就是出问题的关键。 其次 这个比贷款细节大家看这个表。列出了他在4月份刚签贷款协议和10月份已经特斯拉股价做了1拆三的拆股后他各自要抵押的特斯拉股份数量和股份价值。 核心大家看是这个20%的Loan to Value 就是贷款比上贷款加抵押品的比值简称LTV要求不高于20%。 高了就得补保证金。 第三： 那现在有2。59亿股。 借款125亿。 特斯拉股价到多了LTV就会高于20%要补保证金呢。 这个很好算对吧。算下来就是193 左右。 所以大家看到特斯拉股价跌到这个数就会继续有波大的跌幅，因为马斯克不得不卖股票去补保证金。而且越跌要卖的更多。 第四; 现在已经是跌下193了。 有人说看到新闻说马斯克和银行会从新协商这个保证金贷款。 这个没错。 这个协商对老马是不利的。 因为金融市场的恶化，大家看现在杠杆收购贷款的成本已经比当时收购Twitter的时候高了。这个LTV即使降一个-0.5%大家看。马斯克都要多抵押16亿美金的特斯拉股票。 现在特斯拉股票一直在跌。 看起来他要去卖股票的行为还停不下来。 大家看这几天他有卖了3个亿的股票。 所以综上所述。特斯拉的股价最近完全是被马斯克收购Twitter的融资结构和保证金贷款给坑了。 当然老马还有很多特斯拉股票肯定垮不了。特斯拉也是个好公司。 但是近期大家还是不要接这把下跌的飞刀比较好。 等老马保证金贷款事情从新协商好一切落地了。可是特斯拉就是一个非常诱人的进入时机了。 大家觉得呢？&nbsp;\n \n","listText":"最近特斯拉股价大跌的原因： 马斯克贷款被爆仓补保证金 会员群朋友问我为什么特斯拉最近股价大跌。 这个和马斯克收购推特很有关系。 首先： 大家看他收购Twitter的资金结构。 费用利息加起来一共是465亿。 其中210亿是Equity股。 另外335亿是债。 债里面有125亿是马斯克哪自己特斯拉股票做抵押借的保证金贷款。 而这个钱就是出问题的关键。 其次 这个比贷款细节大家看这个表。列出了他在4月份刚签贷款协议和10月份已经特斯拉股价做了1拆三的拆股后他各自要抵押的特斯拉股份数量和股份价值。 核心大家看是这个20%的Loan to Value 就是贷款比上贷款加抵押品的比值简称LTV要求不高于20%。 高了就得补保证金。 第三： 那现在有2。59亿股。 借款125亿。 特斯拉股价到多了LTV就会高于20%要补保证金呢。 这个很好算对吧。算下来就是193 左右。 所以大家看到特斯拉股价跌到这个数就会继续有波大的跌幅，因为马斯克不得不卖股票去补保证金。而且越跌要卖的更多。 第四; 现在已经是跌下193了。 有人说看到新闻说马斯克和银行会从新协商这个保证金贷款。 这个没错。 这个协商对老马是不利的。 因为金融市场的恶化，大家看现在杠杆收购贷款的成本已经比当时收购Twitter的时候高了。这个LTV即使降一个-0.5%大家看。马斯克都要多抵押16亿美金的特斯拉股票。 现在特斯拉股票一直在跌。 看起来他要去卖股票的行为还停不下来。 大家看这几天他有卖了3个亿的股票。 所以综上所述。特斯拉的股价最近完全是被马斯克收购Twitter的融资结构和保证金贷款给坑了。 当然老马还有很多特斯拉股票肯定垮不了。特斯拉也是个好公司。 但是近期大家还是不要接这把下跌的飞刀比较好。 等老马保证金贷款事情从新协商好一切落地了。可是特斯拉就是一个非常诱人的进入时机了。 大家觉得呢？&nbsp;","text":"最近特斯拉股价大跌的原因： 马斯克贷款被爆仓补保证金 会员群朋友问我为什么特斯拉最近股价大跌。 这个和马斯克收购推特很有关系。 首先： 大家看他收购Twitter的资金结构。 费用利息加起来一共是465亿。 其中210亿是Equity股。 另外335亿是债。 债里面有125亿是马斯克哪自己特斯拉股票做抵押借的保证金贷款。 而这个钱就是出问题的关键。 其次 这个比贷款细节大家看这个表。列出了他在4月份刚签贷款协议和10月份已经特斯拉股价做了1拆三的拆股后他各自要抵押的特斯拉股份数量和股份价值。 核心大家看是这个20%的Loan to Value 就是贷款比上贷款加抵押品的比值简称LTV要求不高于20%。 高了就得补保证金。 第三： 那现在有2。59亿股。 借款125亿。 特斯拉股价到多了LTV就会高于20%要补保证金呢。 这个很好算对吧。算下来就是193 左右。 所以大家看到特斯拉股价跌到这个数就会继续有波大的跌幅，因为马斯克不得不卖股票去补保证金。而且越跌要卖的更多。 第四; 现在已经是跌下193了。 有人说看到新闻说马斯克和银行会从新协商这个保证金贷款。 这个没错。 这个协商对老马是不利的。 因为金融市场的恶化，大家看现在杠杆收购贷款的成本已经比当时收购Twitter的时候高了。这个LTV即使降一个-0.5%大家看。马斯克都要多抵押16亿美金的特斯拉股票。 现在特斯拉股票一直在跌。 看起来他要去卖股票的行为还停不下来。 大家看这几天他有卖了3个亿的股票。 所以综上所述。特斯拉的股价最近完全是被马斯克收购Twitter的融资结构和保证金贷款给坑了。 当然老马还有很多特斯拉股票肯定垮不了。特斯拉也是个好公司。 但是近期大家还是不要接这把下跌的飞刀比较好。 等老马保证金贷款事情从新协商好一切落地了。可是特斯拉就是一个非常诱人的进入时机了。 大家觉得呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":113,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":14,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623662529","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"5050e0d99ca742b7b8eb35a1c1e165fe","tweetId":"623662529","title":"最近特斯拉股价大跌的原因： 马斯克贷款被爆仓补保证金\n#特斯拉 #马斯克 #商业思维 #财经 #金融 @DOU+上热门 @DOU+小助手","videoUrl":"https://aweme.snssdk.com/aweme/v1/playwm/?video_id=v0300fg10000cef70e3c77u53l1rs6vg&ratio=720p&line=0","poster":"https://p3-sign.douyinpic.com/tos-cn-p-0015/oonjBerAD4P84UcA3gDQn8de9AQ7nAFUAb4gbD~c5_300x400.jpeg?x-expires=1672545600&x-signature=Vv88n32gqRzcuG836AlSbtzH5ZY%3D&from=3213915784_large&s=PackSourceEnum_DOUYIN_REFLOW&se=false&sc=cover&l=2022121812521301021215215841BB1C4F","shareLink":"https://v.douyin.com/h9BUShD/"},"viewCount":18141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274821093442","authorId":"3479274821093442","name":"小秘书谢谢因为有你","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa85420672e5277cff32ec1b9f08053d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479274821093442","idStr":"3479274821093442"},"content":"你说的对，等老马保证金贷款事情从新协商好一切落地了，才是特斯拉非常诱人的进入时机","text":"你说的对，等老马保证金贷款事情从新协商好一切落地了，才是特斯拉非常诱人的进入时机","html":"你说的对，等老马保证金贷款事情从新协商好一切落地了，才是特斯拉非常诱人的进入时机"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000311","authorId":"9000000000000311","name":"低买高卖谁不会","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07bc9bca07cec671db72f7d6b853211d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000311","idStr":"9000000000000311"},"content":"已经抄底了特斯拉的股票，有点不踏实","text":"已经抄底了特斯拉的股票，有点不踏实","html":"已经抄底了特斯拉的股票，有点不踏实"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193059117645968,"gmtCreate":1688144379742,"gmtModify":1688146067493,"author":{"id":"3565306160488916","authorId":"3565306160488916","name":"锐信资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3b92a510cef2a3a3213c05cf857b27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565306160488916","idStr":"3565306160488916"},"themes":[],"title":"美国5月通胀PCE数据解读\n","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":155,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193059117645968","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"ee595faae477498b99b9ea9216a4b250","tweetId":"193059117645968","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/7a0101c03270835009797514104/yMZTt9zQvWMA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/133e1d824c8d82e309164975738b0a40"},"viewCount":9216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559320019179261","authorId":"3559320019179261","name":"五万傻蛋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/307b2ac6203cd321d4e2b968ed6b9284","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3559320019179261","idStr":"3559320019179261"},"content":"美国滞涨？要不要看看国内？","text":"美国滞涨？要不要看看国内？","html":"美国滞涨？要不要看看国内？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":195452067270752,"gmtCreate":1688754724389,"gmtModify":1688755285356,"author":{"id":"3565306160488916","authorId":"3565306160488916","name":"锐信资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3b92a510cef2a3a3213c05cf857b27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565306160488916","idStr":"3565306160488916"},"themes":[],"title":"为什么美国衰退还没有来，还会来吗？\n","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":131,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195452067270752","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"6c34fa2cc19e49a89c36127e662ce14f","tweetId":"195452067270752","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/337c58a63270835009969310088/y7NhLBrUn4EA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/316de9ea8be358d9219ef4d2e9039df9"},"viewCount":8680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197658894549112,"gmtCreate":1689268132783,"gmtModify":1689269445482,"author":{"id":"3565306160488916","authorId":"3565306160488916","name":"锐信资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3b92a510cef2a3a3213c05cf857b27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565306160488916","idStr":"3565306160488916"},"themes":[],"title":"大佬们对2023年下半年的美股预测\n","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":139,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197658894549112","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"60c847991d9f4529b56b78a55e1937f0","tweetId":"197658894549112","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/d8ffa4723270835010226845005/FwjAALcT6AUA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522d5986a44f4141d4bdc60375070714"},"viewCount":7202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":655318590,"gmtCreate":1685237210210,"gmtModify":1685237810010,"author":{"id":"3565306160488916","authorId":"3565306160488916","name":"锐信资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3b92a510cef2a3a3213c05cf857b27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565306160488916","idStr":"3565306160488916"},"themes":[],"title":"麻烦了， 4月美国通胀PCE让人失望\n","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":139,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/655318590","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"87452b11ce804b57ac48d25e3bd29b7d","tweetId":"655318590","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/4e69b9a23270835008973395230/e4eRZOFV4mMA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ed12d3dcdd3715fa7821a8eb7fce2a"},"viewCount":5262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010338","authorId":"10000000000010338","name":"一个人发呆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd0269f59b94b9077482ee2ab0c9c2f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010338","idStr":"10000000000010338"},"content":"美国通胀压根就是在玩数字游戏，现在的上行，只是纸包不住火了而已","text":"美国通胀压根就是在玩数字游戏，现在的上行，只是纸包不住火了而已","html":"美国通胀压根就是在玩数字游戏，现在的上行，只是纸包不住火了而已"},{"author":{"id":"10000000000010331","authorId":"10000000000010331","name":"焦糖布丁11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62cd18802a86b271359c7aeac675e98","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010331","idStr":"10000000000010331"},"content":"先照顾好自己的屁股，再去想别人屁股擦没擦干净","text":"先照顾好自己的屁股，再去想别人屁股擦没擦干净","html":"先照顾好自己的屁股，再去想别人屁股擦没擦干净"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":186593937871088,"gmtCreate":1686594390054,"gmtModify":1686604473243,"author":{"id":"3565306160488916","authorId":"3565306160488916","name":"锐信资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3b92a510cef2a3a3213c05cf857b27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565306160488916","idStr":"3565306160488916"},"themes":[],"title":"马上要发的美国5月通胀CPI数据和美联储的利率决议\n","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":146,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186593937871088","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"623bd12223dd4db89e31d5ff92845519","tweetId":"186593937871088","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/3cf235783270835009358207005/QmHWK3gC2y8A.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3435689041a943a7f38d334a4a4f08e"},"viewCount":6469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":661278640,"gmtCreate":1663995987081,"gmtModify":1664000244956,"author":{"id":"3565306160488916","authorId":"3565306160488916","name":"锐信资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3b92a510cef2a3a3213c05cf857b27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565306160488916","idStr":"3565306160488916"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n  天天跌，美股什么时候才到底？听听大投行们怎么说 第一： 大盘标普500指数点位上。高盛昨天发了个研究报告。把今年年底预测指数点位从4300调低到了3600， 然后预测如果美联储引发经济衰退，指数明年到3400点触底。 ； 摩根斯坦利的首席策略师Michael Wilson最近的预测是如果美国经济软着陆。那底部也是3400。 如果是硬着陆呢。 底部就是3000. 更悲观一点。 那今年华尔街最有名的是美银的首席Michael Hartnet。因为他的预测到目前为止基本都是对的，他的最新预测底部也是3000点。 不过他这么说的。大家在3600点可以买一点点， 然后3300再继续加仓， 如果到了3000点就要全力加仓了。 。 第二： 投行们还有一类不直接给到底的大盘点位而是给先行指标。 比方说野村和瑞银都认为。要么环比核心通胀PCE增长放缓到0.25%那么失业率上升到4.4%-5%左右。那么市场就基本是底部了。 其实大家也看出来了。他们说的就是要等美联储紧缩政策有明确转向预期就是市场底。美联储不就是看通胀和就业对吧。 最后。 其实第二点投行说的也可以推出底部点位的。 高盛研报里面就算过如果失业率到5%。那标普500就会到3400左右， 如果到失业率到6%。 那应该对应标普500就会到2900. 综上所述，大家信这些投行的话那现在可以做空。 然后到3500左右开始做多。 如果能到3000左右那就全部子弹都上去就好了。 我自己的观点呢在以前的视频里面已经都说过了。 我觉得长期美股肯定是涨，短线美股波动大有点看不清楚。但中期呢应该还是熊市。有人问会不会有崩盘风险。 这点要这么想，崩盘是需要在熊市中有突发不可以预料事件发生的， 比方说08年雷曼兄弟破产。或者2020年新冠在美国突然爆发增长。目前美股的不利因数，如美联储加息，俄乌战争等等基本都是都是可以提前预料到的。 所以熊市是可以预料但是\n \n","listText":"天天跌，美股什么时候才到底？听听大投行们怎么说 第一： 大盘标普500指数点位上。高盛昨天发了个研究报告。把今年年底预测指数点位从4300调低到了3600， 然后预测如果美联储引发经济衰退，指数明年到3400点触底。 ； 摩根斯坦利的首席策略师Michael Wilson最近的预测是如果美国经济软着陆。那底部也是3400。 如果是硬着陆呢。 底部就是3000. 更悲观一点。 那今年华尔街最有名的是美银的首席Michael Hartnet。因为他的预测到目前为止基本都是对的，他的最新预测底部也是3000点。 不过他这么说的。大家在3600点可以买一点点， 然后3300再继续加仓， 如果到了3000点就要全力加仓了。 。 第二： 投行们还有一类不直接给到底的大盘点位而是给先行指标。 比方说野村和瑞银都认为。要么环比核心通胀PCE增长放缓到0.25%那么失业率上升到4.4%-5%左右。那么市场就基本是底部了。 其实大家也看出来了。他们说的就是要等美联储紧缩政策有明确转向预期就是市场底。美联储不就是看通胀和就业对吧。 最后。 其实第二点投行说的也可以推出底部点位的。 高盛研报里面就算过如果失业率到5%。那标普500就会到3400左右， 如果到失业率到6%。 那应该对应标普500就会到2900. 综上所述，大家信这些投行的话那现在可以做空。 然后到3500左右开始做多。 如果能到3000左右那就全部子弹都上去就好了。 我自己的观点呢在以前的视频里面已经都说过了。 我觉得长期美股肯定是涨，短线美股波动大有点看不清楚。但中期呢应该还是熊市。有人问会不会有崩盘风险。 这点要这么想，崩盘是需要在熊市中有突发不可以预料事件发生的， 比方说08年雷曼兄弟破产。或者2020年新冠在美国突然爆发增长。目前美股的不利因数，如美联储加息，俄乌战争等等基本都是都是可以提前预料到的。 所以熊市是可以预料但是","text":"天天跌，美股什么时候才到底？听听大投行们怎么说 第一： 大盘标普500指数点位上。高盛昨天发了个研究报告。把今年年底预测指数点位从4300调低到了3600， 然后预测如果美联储引发经济衰退，指数明年到3400点触底。 ； 摩根斯坦利的首席策略师Michael Wilson最近的预测是如果美国经济软着陆。那底部也是3400。 如果是硬着陆呢。 底部就是3000. 更悲观一点。 那今年华尔街最有名的是美银的首席Michael Hartnet。因为他的预测到目前为止基本都是对的，他的最新预测底部也是3000点。 不过他这么说的。大家在3600点可以买一点点， 然后3300再继续加仓， 如果到了3000点就要全力加仓了。 。 第二： 投行们还有一类不直接给到底的大盘点位而是给先行指标。 比方说野村和瑞银都认为。要么环比核心通胀PCE增长放缓到0.25%那么失业率上升到4.4%-5%左右。那么市场就基本是底部了。 其实大家也看出来了。他们说的就是要等美联储紧缩政策有明确转向预期就是市场底。美联储不就是看通胀和就业对吧。 最后。 其实第二点投行说的也可以推出底部点位的。 高盛研报里面就算过如果失业率到5%。那标普500就会到3400左右， 如果到失业率到6%。 那应该对应标普500就会到2900. 综上所述，大家信这些投行的话那现在可以做空。 然后到3500左右开始做多。 如果能到3000左右那就全部子弹都上去就好了。 我自己的观点呢在以前的视频里面已经都说过了。 我觉得长期美股肯定是涨，短线美股波动大有点看不清楚。但中期呢应该还是熊市。有人问会不会有崩盘风险。 这点要这么想，崩盘是需要在熊市中有突发不可以预料事件发生的， 比方说08年雷曼兄弟破产。或者2020年新冠在美国突然爆发增长。目前美股的不利因数，如美联储加息，俄乌战争等等基本都是都是可以提前预料到的。 所以熊市是可以预料但是","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":89,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":6,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661278640","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"57585673e98848f3836be7135e11a456","tweetId":"661278640","title":"天天跌，美股什么时候才到底？听听大投行们怎么说\n#美股 #加息#商业思维 #投行 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